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Prior +1.8%HICP +2.4% vs +2.4% y/y expectedPrior +1.8% Core annual inflation was seen at 2.4%, marginally lower than the 2.5% reading in October. So, that’s a welcome development and offsets the rise in headline prices which largely has to do with base effects. This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

The dollar sold off in trading yesterday, which arguably had more to do with month-end shenanigans more than anything else. The flows look to be rushed this time around as everyone wants to get things settled before the Thanksgiving holiday kicks in. And with that, we are seeing major currencies settle down again today with

Victory against inflation is in sight.The inflation target may be reached in early 2025.Our interest rates should clearly go to the neutral rate.We still have significant room to remove the restrictive stance of our monetary policy.I wouldn’t exclude going below the neutral rate in the future. This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at www.forexlive.com.

It is hard to tell what Trump administration will do, as opposed to what they say they will doUS tariffs could potentially lead to a rise in US inflationBut it is not going to impact Australia inflation in the next six monthsWe have to set policy based on what we know rather than what’s in

New Zealand November 2024 Business Survey Business confidence 64.9% prior 65.7 Activity outlook 48.0% prior 45.9 ANZ comments: Business confidence eased 1 point to +65 in November, but expected own activity rose 2 points to +48. Experienced own activity rose a point to -10, while past employment lifted from -15 to -12. Pricing intentions fell

The expiries board today won’t mean much, as flows will be marred by the Thanksgiving holidays. The same applies for tomorrow mostly as well, although there are some large ones for EUR/USD to be mindful of just in case. Month-end shenanigans saw the dollar sold off in trading yesterday but we’ll see if there will

Headlines: Weekly update on interest rate expectationsRBA’s Bullock: Underlying inflation is still too high to consider a near-term rate cutRBA governor Bullock: If inflation falls more quickly than forecast, we can respondRBA governor Bullock: Hard to tell what lies ahead when it comes to Trump administrationECB’s Lagarde: Tariffs will be negative for global growth in

Rate cuts by year-end Fed: 16 bps (65% probability of rate cut at the upcoming meeting) 2025: 75 bps ECB: 29 bps (85% probability of 25 bps rate cut at the upcoming meeting) 2025: 147 bps BoE: 4 bps (85% probability of no change at the upcoming meeting) 2025: 71 bps BoC: 30 bps (82%

Everything was on the table this weekBut a consensus was reached for a 50 bps rate cut very quicklyDid not feel the need to do more than 50 bps because there is still work to do on inflationHave to make sure core inflation is sustainably at target mid-point Her remarks are consistent with what Orr

Prior was -8.5 billion (revised to -4.7 billion) This is not a market moving release This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at www.forexlive.com.

Prior +2.0%HICP +2.4% vs +2.6% y/y expectedPrior +2.4% Slight delay in the release by the source. Headline annual inflation crept a little higher but less than estimated, as per the state readings earlier. That owes more to base effects, with monthly inflation seen down 0.2%. The EU-harmonised reading was the same as October though for

Fundamental Overview We continue to see a pullback in the US Dollar as the market kind of reached the peak in the repricing of interest rates expectations and it will need stronger reasons to price out the remaining rate cuts for 2025. This was signalled by the lack of US Dollar strength after lots of

Imposing tariffs arbitrarily on trade partners won’t solve the problems that the US have itself It’s all a war of words for now. But when the time comes, expect some form of tit-for-tat retaliation at the very least. It’ll be interesting to see how much of a resemblance we will get to Trump’s first term

The Bank of Korea was widely expected to leaves the rate unchanged. Nope, cuts by 25bp to 3%. Forecasts from the Bank: 2024 GDP growth at 2.2% (vs 2.4% seen in Aug)2024 inflation at 2.3%2025 GDP growth at 1.9% (vs 2.1% seen in Aug)2025 inflation at 1.9%2026 inflation at 1.9%2026 economic growth at 1.8% The

Fundamental Overview We continue to see a pullback in the US Dollar as the market kind of reached the peak in the repricing of interest rates expectations and it will need stronger reasons to price out the remaining rate cuts for 2025. This was signalled by the lack of US Dollar strength after lots of

Hesse CPI +2.0% vs +1.8% y/y priorBrandenburg CPI +1.9% vs +1.8% y/y priorSaxony CPI +2.9% vs +2.8% y/y priorNorth Rhine Westphalia CPI +1.9% vs +2.0% y/y priorBaden Wuerttemberg CPI +2.2% vs +2.1% y/y prior At the balance, the figures aren’t as high as estimated. This points to the national reading later coming in around 2.1%,

This is with regards to the Japanese Association of Metal, Machinery, and Manufacturing Workers (JAM) trade union, which mainly comprises of small and medium-sized manufacturing firms across Japan. It is being reported that they will be demanding a base salary hike of ¥15,000 or more in the upcoming spring wage negotiations. For some context, that

M3 Money Supply Y/Y 3.4% vs. 3.4% expected and 3.2% prior.Loans to Households Y/Y 0.8% vs. 0.8% expected and 0.7% prior.Loans to Companies Y/Y 1.2% vs. 1.1% prior. This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at www.forexlive.com.

Japan extraordinary parliamentary session to discuss plans for an extra budget (and more)JP Morgan says Bank of Japan will hike to 1.5% (but not soon)South Korea will extend its fuel tax cuts by another 2 monthsBank of Korea cut benchmark interest rates for a second straight meeting – a surprise moveThe US has reduced its

Fundamental Overview We continue to see a pullback in the US Dollar as the market kind of reached the peak in the repricing of interest rates expectations and it will need stronger reasons to price out the remaining rate cuts for 2025. This was signalled by the lack of US Dollar strength after lots of

Trump has indicated a range of tariffs around 10-20% for the rest of the worldThe fact that you put out a range means that you are open to discussionEurope is erring towards a “cheque book strategy”We could offer to buy certain things from the US and signal that we are prepared to discuss to see

The major indices move lower on the day ahead of the Thanksgiving day holiday tomorrow. The markets will reopen on Friday. The mega caps and technology stocks moved lower with Dell leading the way after disappointing guidance for the Q4: A snapshot of the closing levels shows: Dow industrial average -138.25 points or -0.31% and

The official excuse is that the meeting is moved due to the Gulf Summit taking place in Kuwait on 1 December. But reading between the lines, perhaps some members need more convincing in reaching a common ground to decide what to do next on policy. As things stand, the planned oil output hike will be

Check your diaries and make sure you’re free! It’s nearly time for iFX EXPO Dubai 2025, as the renowned online trading event returns to the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region once again – bigger, busier, and better than ever before. Set to be one of the largest and most prominent B2B and B2C

Trump says he spoke with Mexico’s Sheinbaum: agreed to stop migration through Mexico into the USeffectively closing the US southern border If so this will mean Turmp’s threats if big tariffs on Mexico won’t go ahead. *** Claudia Sheinbaum Pardo is president of Mexico *** The threat of tariffs on Mexico, Canada and China sent

A note from MUFG on the stronger yen this week. says JPY has risen due to safe-haven demand and speculation that the Bank of Japan could raise interest rates at its December (18 – 19) meeting MUFG with a reason to be cautious: “Tariffs on Japan imports to the US remain a risk and higher

Germany remains a real buzzkill for the ECB at the moment. Europe’s largest economy is putting a real drag on the growth outlook and on the inflation front, price pressures are also looking fairly sticky. And that should once again be the case this month as well. In terms of headline annual inflation, it did

An extraordinary parliamentary session will begin in Japan today, November 28. Will run to December 21. The special Diet session is to allow for deliberation on a supplementary budget needed to fund new inflation-relief measures proposed by the government of Japanese Prime Mister Shigeru Ishiba. Government plans include: to provide cash handouts — likely 30,000

Today we might have a pretty choppy day in the markets given that the US is on holiday for Thanksgiving. The only highlights will be the Spanish and German inflation readings. They will likely have an impact on the EUR ahead of tomorrow’s Eurozone Flash CPI. The market’s pricing for the ECB remains pretty aggressive

Good morning, afternoon and evening all. Any charts, technical analysis, trade ideas, thoughts, views, ForexLive traders would like to share and discuss with fellow ForexLive traders, please do so: This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

South Korea’s finance ministry said that it will extend the tax cut on fuel for two more months Out to February 2025 South Korea has implemented a series of fuel tax cuts since 2021 to alleviate the financial burden on consumers amid fluctuating global oil prices and inflationary pressures. Extensions to the cuts have been

The People’s Bank of China set the onshore yuan (CNY) reference rate for the trading session ahead. USD/CNY is the onshore yuan. Its permitted to trade plus or minus 2% from this daily reference rate.CNH is the offshore yuan. USD /CNH has no restrictions on its trading range.A significantly stronger or weaker rate than expected

From New Zealand are business confidence and activity indicators, from the ANZ Business Outlook Survey. This is a monthly assessment conducted by ANZ Bank New Zealand. It gauges the sentiments and expectations of businesses across various sectors in New Zealand. It serves as a leading economic indicator, offering insights into business confidence, anticipated activity levels,

Eurostoxx +0.6%Germany DAX +0.7%France CAC 40 +0.5%UK FTSE +0.2%Spain IBEX +0.2%Italy FTSE MIB +0.4% After two days of struggles, European stocks are looking to bounce back today in what has been a back and forth last two weeks. And for some indices, it has been the story for the month of November itself. That said,

US advice to travelers to mainland China changed from Level 3, “reconsider travel”, to Level 2, “exercise increased caution”. The the advisory still warned that US citizens in China “may be subjected to interrogations and detention without fair and transparent treatment under the law”. The trimming of the warning level comes as: China has released

Stats NZ released its monthly ‘Employment Indicators’ data, for October 2024: there are over 35,500 fewer jobs now in NZ than there were a year agoover 30,000 jobs gone in the 15-29 age bracketnumber of filled jobs for October 2024 fell by over 2,000 (0.1%) to 2.36 millionSeptember was revised down to a 0.1% fallin

The meeting was supposed to take place on 1 December. It seems that it will still be held online though. The delay here raises further debate on whether the bloc is going to kick the can down the road on its planned output hike – which is due to start in January. This article was

The EUR/USD began the U.S. session with a break above the 200-hour moving average at 1.05203, signaling bullish momentum. The rally pushed the price through the 38.2% retracement level at 1.05628, but it quickly pulled back, dipping below yesterday’s high of 1.0544. However, the decline found support above the 200-hour moving average, allowing the pair

Bank of Korea cut benchmark interest rates for a second straight meeting in a surprise move: Bank of Korea unexpectedly cuts its base rate by 25bpfirst time since 2009 the central bank cut interest rates for two consecutive meetingsBoK also lowered its forecasts for economic growth and inflation South Korean won, bond yields weakened. KOSPI

People’s Bank of China USD/CNY reference rate is due around 0115 GMT. The People’s Bank of China (PBOC), China’s central bank, is responsible for setting the daily midpoint of the yuan (also known as renminbi or RMB). The PBOC follows a managed floating exchange rate system that allows the value of the yuan to fluctuate

The Atlanta Fed GDPNow growth estimate for Q4 rose to 2.7%. In their own words: The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the fourth quarter of 2024 is 2.7 percent on November 27, up from 2.6 percent on November 19. After this morning’s personal income and outlays release from

JPMorgan analysts expect the BOJ will raise rates in April and October 2025. Bringing the policy rate to 1.0% by the end of 2025. BOJ will likely raise rates twicee to 1.5% in 2026 JPMorgan cites: In a global context, the BOJ is set to continue marching to the beat of its own drum, pointing

I posted on the machinations earlier: Plan to overhaul the RBA including splitting the board in two could be back on the agenda The Australian Labor party government has secured the support of minority party Greens to help pass the legislation. The Treasury Laws Amendment (Reserve Bank Reforms) Bill 2023 was one of around 30

The US is expected to announce another set of measures on Monday designed to further restrain China’s ability to develop advanced artificial intelligence The reports cite “people familiar with the matter”could include sanctioning dozens of Chinese companies that produce equipment for making semiconductorsalso placing restrictions on a handful of chip manufacturing plants, some of which

Post for the futures traders out there! The CME Group has adjusted trading hours for various products during the Thanksgiving holiday period in 2024. Below is a summary of the schedule for Equity Products, Cryptocurrency, Interest Rate Products, and NYMEX & COMEX Products: Equity Products: Wednesday, November 27, 2024: Regular trading hours. Thursday, November 28,

The CBI survey shows UK services sector sentiment falling at its fastest pace in two years, driven partly by tax increases in Finance Minister Rachel Reeves’ October 30 budget, according to the Confederation of British Industry (CBI). The decline is most severe in consumer services, where a £25 billion payroll tax hike heavily impacts large

Few people think Trump will actually follow through with 25% across-the-board tariffs on Canada and Mexico, at least not for any length of time. But with Trump you need to prepare for anything and that’s what Deutsche Bank has done today with forecast scenarios that illustrate where US inflation will lad with tariffs. This chart

A down day for the major indices ahead of the Thanksgiving day holidayRBNZ Asst Gov Silk: Manufacturing, retail, construction will start to see recovery in 2025Atlanta Fed GDPNow growth estimate for Q4 rises to 2.7% from 2.6% on November 19Crude oil futures settles at $68.72Assuming Trump actually puts the tariffs on Canada and MexicoBitcoin races

USD/JPY has risen in morning Asia trade. News and data flow from Japan has been sparse. We did have this from the US: Mexico has agreed to stop migration into the US (closes southern border) And this: US expected to announce further AI chip sanctions against China on Monday Whether those are smoking gun catalysts

ECB board member Isabel Schnabel spoke on Wednesday, not so dovishly: mostly points to a 25 bps rate cut more than anything else as she dismissed the likelihood of moving faster by saying she would prefer something more “gradual” More here too: clearly pushing back against the aggressive rate cuts expectations HSBC’s take is similar,

Crude oil futures is settling at $68.72. That’s down five cents or -0.07%. The high price today reached $69.33. The low price was at $68.18. Technically, the high price today extended briefly above its 200 hour moving average at $69.19. Getting above that moving average and then the higher 100 hour moving average at $69.73

Comments from RBNZ Asst Governor Silk Residential investment, manufacturing, retail trade, construction in New Zealand will start to see more recovery in early 2025.Geopolitical risks pose uncertainty, can have an impact on inflation and growth.Restrictive policy giving confidence nondomestic inflation numbers allowing us to start to accelerate easing cycle Comments from RBNZ chief economist Conway:

German foreign intelligence service says: Kremlin sees Germany as an adversarySays Germany is in direct confrontation with MoscowRussia has started to use “kinetic” measures against the West including acts of sabotage against infrastructureExpects further escalation of the situation Earlier today, it was reported that Trump would pick Keith Kellogg as the envoy to end the

The USD/CAD surged sharply higher on Tuesday following news of a proposed 25% tariff on all Canadian goods by former President Trump, contingent on the continued “stream of illegal immigrants” at the border. Adam addressed the issue here: “Tariff man loses his fastball“. The spike higher propelled the pair to its highest level since April

The US dollar is soft today and I think we’re getting an idea why at the moment. It’s struggling into the London fix, which highlights some flows ahead of month end. The US is on holiday tomorrow (and de facto on Friday) so flows are being jammed through today. This article was written by Adam

Dollar selling is the theme in the FX market today, and with that, the major currency pairs versus the US dollar are breaking through some technical levels and targeting others. EURUSD: The EURUSD is looking toward the 38.2% retracement at 1.05628. Get above that and it opens the door for further upside momentum. USDJPY: The

USD/JPY is down a whopping 260 pips today following a 140-pip decline yesterday. The pair is trading at 150.46 fr om a high of 156.76 mid-month. That’s a real turn and it’s particularly dramatic today as the US dollar is dogged by month-end flows. It’s a case of “up the escalator, down the elevator” that’s

Goldman Sachs estimates China’s 2024 LNG imports to revert back to previous record highChief Economist & European Central Bank Executive Board member Lane speaking WednesdayANZ forecast 25bp RBNZ rate cuts in February, April, and May 2025Goldman Sachs analyst says Asia LNG prices could jump to above $20/mmbtuRBNZ Gov Orr says tariffs would put up pressure

Prior was 4.215%Bid to cover at 2.71 vs 2.74 prior The bond market isn’t having a problem digesting some serious supply this week ahead of Thanksgiving. In the aftermath of the sale, long-dated yields are at the lows of the day with 10s down 5.2 bps to 4.25%. There is some follow-through in USD/JPY as

This has been rumored for weeks and yesterday it was reported that it was coming imminently. Gold and oil have sold off substantially on it already. The vote to approve it in the Israeli cabinet was 10-1. Sell the rumor, buy the fact? Biden also says there will be a fresh push for a ceasefire

The price of Bitcoin is trading up around $3800 today at $95,750. The high for the day has reached $96,435. The move higher took out the 100 and 200-hour MAs at $95,632 and $95,932 respectively. However, there is some apprehension on the break. Buyers and sellers are battling above and below the MAs awaiting the

Trust Wallet, a leading self-custody Web3 wallet trusted by over 140 million users, has announced the third project under Trust Wallet Launchpool, featuring the reward token $WOD. $WOD is the native token of World of Dypians, a MMORPG available on Epic Games, set in a connected virtual world, featuring advanced AI, stunning graphics, and immersive

The NZD/USD climbed higher despite a 50 basis point rate cut from the Reserve Bank of New Zealand, driven by a clear “buy the fact” reaction from traders. This rally was supported by technical factors, with the pair breaking above its 200-hour moving average at 0.5863. This level had previously capped gains on Monday and

US equity close: Big bids arrive late With all the focus on Bessent, are we underestimating Kevin Warsh?Biden touts Israel-Lebanon ceasefireCould Trump lean on a weaker dollar as is main policy lever?Are we in a bubble? Where 5 measures of market sentiment standA look at the Fed minutes by separating references to groups of “participants”.FOMC

Prior +1.7%Market index 208.0 vs 195.6 priorPurchase index 152.9 vs 136.0 priorRefinance index 501.7 vs 514.9 prior30-year mortgage rate 6.86% vs 6.90% prior Mortgage applications jumped in the past week, owing to a surge in purchase activity. That more than offset a decline in refinancing activity, with the average rate continuing to hold higher still.

Prior -0.2%Advance retail inventories +0.1%Prior +0.8%; revised to +0.6%Retail inventories ex-autos +0.1%Prior +0.2%; revised to +0.1% Wholesale inventories are estimated to be higher in October, up slightly to $905.1 billion, while retail inventories are also seen marginally higher on the month up to $824.7 billion. Here is the breakdown by the month: This article was

Headlines: USD/JPY falls to three-week lows as dollar slips to start the sessionEURUSD Technical Analysis – The pair looks to be bottoming outPotential for dollar selling this month end – DeutscheGold bounce today keeps buyers interested going into month-endWhat is the distribution of forecasts for the US PCE?ECB’s Schnabel: Easing too much would use up

European equities bounced from the lows of the day but still finished in the red. Closing changes: Stoxx 600 -0.2%German DAX -0.2%France CAC -0.7%UK FTSE 100 -0.2%Spain IBEX -0.3%Italy’s FTSE MIB -0.3% This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

Sector Overview Today’s stock market heatmap reveals a turbulent day for the tech sector, particularly within semiconductors. Nvidia (NVDA) has taken a significant hit, dropping 2.07%, marking a stark contrast to the generally resilient performance elsewhere. Meanwhile, the utilities and consumer defensive sectors are showing relative strength, offering a safe haven for cautious investors. 📉

This is weird. I posted the RBNZ rate cut decision, it was published on time and kudos to all involved. I then tried to access the statement and meeting record on the Bank’s website and, well, that wasn’t smooth at all. I could access the site but the statement and minutes were there from the

Prior -7.7 That’s the lowest reading since January and it reaffirms the worsening sentiment surrounding the Swiss economy, and the euro area in general, heading into next year. This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

South Korea’s National Pension Service (NPS) has been selling dollars in the onshore foreign exchange market in recent weeks, helping limit losses in the won as the dollar strengthens. Reuters citing according to two sources familiar with the matter. As the world’s third-largest public pension fund, with assets exceeding $810 billion, the NPS has significant

The RBNZ cut the OCR by 50bps to 4.25% today: RBNZ Gov Orr says tariffs would put up pressure on price levels globallyRBNZ Gov says it’s a misunderstanding that RBNZ projections show slower pace of rate cutsRBNZ Monetary Policy Statement Media Conference – live linkWhat is the Reserve Bank of New Zealand even doing? This

Fundamental Overview The US Dollar remains the strongest currency but overall, we haven’t got much action in the past couple of weeks due to the lack of key catalysts and the market’s pricing remaining largely unchanged around roughly three rate cuts by the end of 2025 despite a series of strong US data. This might

Prior month +7.4% Details Pending home sales 2.0% versus -2.0% expectedHome sales index 77.4 versus 75.8 last monthSales up 5.4% year on year. Highest level since March. Regionally: Northeast 4.7% MoM and +7.2% YoYWest 0.2% MoM 16.8% YoYMidwest 4.0% MoM and 1.8% YoYSouth 0.9% MoM and 2.5% YoY There is more supply which could be

ANZ forecast 25bp RBNZ rate cuts in February, April, and May 2025. In summary from the bank’s analysis of today’s RBNZ decision The RBNZ cut the Official Cash Rate (OCR) 50bp to 4.25% today in what the Record of Meeting notes was a consensus decision. The RBNZ’s updated forecast OCR track has about -40bp implied

Aventus, a leader in enterprise blockchain technology and parachain on Polkadot, today announces the launch of its Blockchain Factory: a platform designed to help businesses deploy bespoke blockchain networks with advanced features and seamless integration into existing systems. The Blockchain Factory aims to make blockchain adoption more accessible, offering a streamlined, flexible solution for organisations

Priorr Week initial jobless claims 213K revised to 215KInitial jobless claims 213K vs 216K estimate 4-week MA 217K vs 218.25K last week Continuing Claims 1.907M vs 1.908M estimate. This is the highest level for insured unemployment since November 13, 2021 when it was 1,974,000Prior Continuing Claims 1.898M vs 1.908M previously reported4-week MA of continuing claims

The AUD/USD moved higher in response to a weaker USD, but sellers stepped in near the falling 100-hour moving average, pushing the price back down. The decline found support at the high of a key swing area, where buyers leaned in and drove the pair back toward the now-converged 100-hour and 200-hour moving averages, both

A stock split is a corporate action where a company issues additional shares to shareholders, increasing the total number of shares while reducing the share price proportionally. This process does not alter the company’s market capitalization but can affect investor perception and participation. Hearing Stock Splits for the first time? Choose investment education to learn

Xi has been purging various institutions, the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) is not immune. I saw this earlier: Liu Liange, former Party chief and chairman of Bank of China, was sentenced to death with a two-year reprieve in a first-instance trial on Tuesday for accepting large sums in bribes. (Global Times) This article was written

China January- October industrial profits -4.3% y/y the January – September result was -3.5% October month industrial profits -10% y/y Data comes from China’s National Bureau of Statistics (NBS). *** Industrial profit numbers cover firms with annual revenues of at least 20 million yuan ($2.76 million) from their main operations This article was written by

Prior was +2.7%Core m/m +0.3% vs +0.3% expUnrounded core PCE was +0.274% m/mCore PCE +2.8% y/y vs +2.8% expectedHeadline inflation PCE +2.3% y/y vs +2.3% expected (Prior +2.1%)Deflator +0.2% m/m vs +0.2% expected Unrounded +0.238% m/m Consumer spending and income for October: Personal income +0.6% vs +0.4% expected. Prior month +0.2%Personal spending +0.4% vs +0.3%

On the month itself, gold is still down around 3.5% and poised for its first monthly loss since June. And if this holds, it would be the biggest monthly loss for the precious metal this year. That says a lot about how bullish sentiment has been for gold during the last twelve to fourteen months,

As Bitcoin flirts with the $100K milestone, the crypto market is gearing up for the next cycle. Historically, this surge in BTC’s value leads to altcoins pumping, followed by liquidity flowing into the memecoin sector. With this momentum, memecoins offering compelling narratives and valuable utilities become the focal point for investors. Pepeto, the God of

Advance Q3 reading was +2.8% annualizedFinal Q2 reading was +3.0% annualized Details: Consumer spending +3.5% vs +3.7% advance Consumer spending on durables +8.1%GDP final sales +3.0% vs +3.0% advanceGDP deflator +1.9% vs +1.8% advanceCore PCE +2.1% vs +2.2% advance Business investment (nonresidential fixed investment) +% vs +3.3% advancePCE services inflation excluding energy and housing +2.6%

The major stock indices are mixed with the NASDAQ and S&P lower. The small-cap Russell 2000 and Dow industrial average are trading higher. A snapshot of the market currently shows: Dow industrial average was 40.07 points or 0.09%. S&P index -22.79 points or -0.38%NASDAQ index -172 points or -0.90%Russell 2000+ 4.47 points or +0.18% the

The pair looks to be on an inevitable push lower towards testing its 200-day moving average again, with the key level seen at 151.97 currently. The slight drop at the start of the month met a stall there before the rebound after the US election result. And now we’re circling back to that again. Besides

We can gradually move toward neutral if incoming data continues to confirm our baselineWe may not be so far from the neutral rateMarkets seem to assume that we will need to move into accommodative territoryBut I don’t think such a step would be appropriate based on current conditionsHas a strong preference for a gradual approachThe

German DAX futures flatFrench CAC 40 futures -0.3%UK FTSE futures flat This mirrors the mood in US futures, with S&P 500 futures keeping flattish at the moment. That despite a late bid overnight helped to see Wall Street finish with modest gains. This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

There are some major geopolitical considerations around how the war in Ukraine ends. Trump will reportedly pick Keith Kellogg as envoy to end the war, according to a Reuters report. Here’s a recent article where he lays out how he would end it. Continue arming Ukraine while pursuing formal ceasefire negotiations, with aid conditional on

The pound is slowly chewing through last week’s losses. It’s trading at a session high, up 79 pips to 1.2646 in the second day of gains. It comes after a tough three day stretch late last week that sent it to the lowest since May. This week, the US dollar has been softening on the

Prior -$108.7 billion The international trade deficit was lower in October as exports were seen down 3.2% to $168.7 billion while imports were down 5.4% to $267.8 billion compared to the month before. Here’s the breakdown: This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

Crude oil inventories -1844 K vs -605K expGasoline inventories +3314K vs -46K expDistillates inventories +416K vs -103K expRefinery utilization +0.3% versus expectations of +0.4% expProduction 13.49mbpd from 13.2mbpd Private oil inventory data from late yesterday: Crude -5939KGasoline +1814KDistillates +2543K WTI crude oil was trading 10-cents higher to $68.87 before the data. Note that the OPEC

Australian Construction Work Done in Q3 2024, much better than expected at +1.6% q/q 0.3% expected, prior was 0.1% This is an encouraging result. AUD/USD little changed, its around 0.6475 This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

As the North America session begins the USD is lower, US yields are lower and the broader indices are lower (although the Dow is trading above and below unchanged). Crude oil is marginally higher after an up and down day on Tuesday. Gold is higher after rebounding by 0.31% yesterday a day after plunging 3.35%

Decision and summary of statement and minutes is here: Reserve Bank of New Zealand cuts cash rate by 50bp, as expected NZD/USD has jumped: That’s a big surge for the kiwi$ on a decision that was widely expected. I don’t see the statement and minutes as hawkish but maybe some out there do. This article

Goldman Sachs analyst says Asia LNG prices could jump to above $20 per million British thermal units (mmBtu) if European gas supply tightens this winter. Goldman Sachs analyst says: “That’s the near term dynamic, given this vulnerability of Europe, the lack of spare capacity, the loss of the residual Russian volumes currently going through Ukraine,

S&P 500 futures are fractionally lower as we count down to the open. With the US holiday tomorrow and month end looming, flows are likely to overwhelm everything else today. That’s also what could have the US dollar on the backfoot today. But if you look at the field of play, it’s a good one

Eyes are on US inflation with the market pricing in a 65% chance of a cut at the December FOMC. That ticked up about 8 points yesterday with the FOMC minutes highlighting a strong consensus around gradual rate cuts. The main number to watch is core PCE, which is forecast to rise 0.3% m/m and

Prior month -0.7% (revised to -0.4%)Durable goods orders MoM 0.2% vs 0.5% expectedEx transportation MoM 0.1% vs 0.2% expectedPrior month ex transportation 0.5% (revised to 0.4%)Non-Defense cap ex air MoM -0.2% vs 0.1% expectedPrior month non-defence cap ex air 0.7% (revised to 0.3Durable goods ex defense MoM 0.4% vs -1.1% prior This isn’t a market

The pair is down nearly 1% on the day to 151.50 levels, with price now at its lowest levels since 6 November. What is more notable though is that sellers are looking to push for a break below the 200-day moving average (blue line). The key level is seen at 151.97 and that will be

As the global online trading landscape constantly evolves, with new trends emerging all the time, brokerages are having to rise to the challenge by delivering the best products and services to adapt to shifting trader preferences. One particular area that has experienced a notable surge in popularity is copy trading, capturing the excitement of retail

The People’s Bank of China set the onshore yuan (CNY) reference rate for the trading session ahead. USD/CNY is the onshore yuan. Its permitted to trade plus or minus 2% from this daily reference rate.CNH is the offshore yuan. USD /CNH has no restrictions on its trading range.A significantly stronger or weaker rate than expected

Heads up, the FOMC Minutes are due at the top of the hour. The next meeting is on December 18 and the market is pricing in a 58% chance of a cut with the remainder at ‘no change’. I expect indications to point to a ‘meeting-by-meeting’ approach and that the deciding factor in the next

Why it’s important? The ranges of estimates are important in terms of market reaction because when the actual data deviates from the expectations, it creates a surprise effect. Another important input in market’s reaction is the distribution of forecasts. In fact, although we can have a range of estimates, most forecasts might be clustered on

Does anyone seriously think he’s going to put those tariffs on 6 million barrels per day of oil that enters the US? I take this more of a sign that this isn’t a real threat but the oil market has reversed some losses. This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

Fundamental Overview The US Dollar remains the strongest currency but overall, we haven’t got much action in the past couple of weeks due to the lack of key catalysts and the market’s pricing remaining largely unchanged around roughly three rate cuts by the end of 2025 despite a series of strong US data. This might

The US treasury auctioned off $70 billion of five year notes at a high yield of 4.197%. Details of the auction: High yield 4.197%Tail -0.2 basis points versus six-month average of 0.7 basis pointsBid to cover 2.43X vs six-month average of 2.37X Directs 24.58% versus six-month average of 16.0%Indirects 64.12% versus six-month average of 69.7%Dealers

Despite a strong performance this year, the stock market remains exposed to several potential challenges, Deutsche Bank noted in a report on Tuesday. While markets have experienced some volatility, they have rebounded quickly after the factors causing sell-offs eased. “This shows that any of these risks could trigger another downturn, especially if they persist or

The poll was conducted after the US election in the period of 15 November to 26 November. The findings show that the median forecast is for the S&P 500 to end 2025 at 6,500 – which is roughly 8% up from yesterday’s close. The forecast here is sharply higher compared to the previous forecast in

Stats NZ have released a preview od GDP revisions to be published on December 19. Westpac summary: The key points are as follows (note that slight further revisions to the numbers below are possible before their formal release): • Real GDP growth (using the production-based measure) is likely to be revised up by 0.8ppts to

In Europe, we’ll only have to deal with a couple of light releases. The most notable is the German GfK consumer sentiment but even that isn’t really a market mover by any form. The main events today are all in US trading as we will be getting a flurry of economic data before the Thanksgiving

The tariffs on imports from China, Canada, and Mexico announced by Trump on Monday could lead to a nearly 1% increase in the Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation measure, according to Goldman Sachs. Goldman’s chief economist, Jan Hatzius, in a note to clients: “Using our rule of thumb that every 1 [percentage point] increase in the

There was a big rally in bonds on Monday and they’ve held up well today despite a moderate retracement. Much of the talk on Monday was about Scott Bessent getting the nomination for Treasury Secretary but what might have driven a big part of the move was a detail in many of the stories reporting

There are a couple to take note of on the day, as highlighted in bold. The first ones are for EUR/USD, layered at the 1.0415, 1.0475, and 1.0500 levels. Similar to yesterday, the expiries in particular the ones at 1.0475 and 1.0500 should limit price movements in the session ahead. That especially the latter given

Eurostoxx -0.3%Germany DAX -0.1%France CAC 40 -0.7%UK FTSE flatSpain IBEX -0.3%Italy FTSE MIB -0.4% It’s still early in the day but the mood music is continuing from yesterday for now. The CAC 40 is starting to look towards its August lows now, so that is one to watch out for. Elsewhere, S&P 500 futures are

Fundamental Overview Gold had a bad start of the week after the nomination of Scott Bessent for Treasury secretary over the weekend. Bessent is seen as a fiscal hawk, and the market views him as a great pick for the job. One of the main reasons why the magnitude of the correlation between gold and

Prior 94; revised to 93 French consumer confidence slumped to its lowest level since June as worries about employment conditions are starting to grow again. The index for unemployment prospects rose to 42, up from 33 previously, and is the highest since May 2021. This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

📈 Is Visa Stock (V) Still a Buy After a 25% Rally? Visa Inc. (V) has experienced a remarkable 25% rise since its summer 2024 earnings. This rally has solidified its status as a dominant player in the payments industry, but the key question remains: Is Visa a buy, hold, or sell at these levels?

Prior -18.3; revised to -18.4 That’s the weakest reading since May and it reaffirms the gloomier outlook surrounding the German economy as we look towards next year. This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

I see only limited room for further rate cuts.The impact of past ECB tightening is fading visibly.I need to see services inflation come down.I don’t see a significant risk of inflation undershoot.Inflation journey to 2% may still be bumpy in 2025.The ECB may noy be so far from neutral rates.ù Schnabel is a known hawk

RBNZ Monetary Policy Statement Media Conference Begins at2pm New Zealand time 0200 GMT9100 US Eastern time ie Now! Earlier: Reserve Bank of New Zealand cuts cash rate by 50bp, as expectedNew Zealand dollar has surged higher after the Reserve Bank of New Zealand 50bp rate cutWhat is the Reserve Bank of New Zealand even doing?

Bank of England Lombardellii says: US trade tariffs would pose risk to economic growthToo early to quantify effects of proposed tariffsWould discuss trade developments in upcoming meetings Comments reported in the Financial Times (gated) and conveyed via Reuters headlines. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

It was a record close in the S&P 500, at 6021. Bank of America put out a target for next year of 6666 today, though the track record of those kinds of targets is sketchy at best. The index was nearly flat midway thorough trading but jumped late. Closing changes: S&P 500: +0.6%Nasdaq Comp: +0.6%DJIA:

This guy is going to have a torrid time. Trump’s trade rep in his first admin, Lighthizer, was embroiled in negotiations with China over trade. Greer will be doing the same. We wish him well. I haven’t got a pic of Greer yet, this recent snap of a still-recovering Lighthizer will have to do. This

Snippet from Deutsche Bank, in brief: base case for 2025 is stronger US growth and inflationhigher FOMC terminal rate than previously expectedopposite applies to Europe On the US DB: assumes modest US tax cutsstrong deregulation effortsmore supportive financial conditionsassume a 10% increase in the tariff rate on imports from China in H1 (ratcheting up a

NZD/USD is giving back some of its earlier jump, its around 0.5852 now. From his circa 0.5880. RBNZ Governor Orr with more: Neutral rate is somewhere 2.5 to 3.5%expect to be around neutral by the end of 2025Confident domestic inflation pressures will continue to ease.Confident economic growth will pick up in 2025.Expect to be around

Today we will have another empty European session in terms of data releases. In the American session, we get lots of US data releases as Thursday’s data was moved up to today due to the US holidays. Most of the data will be ignored by the market and the focus will be on the US

Reserve Bank of New Zealand In summary from the statement: The Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) has reduced the Official Cash Rate (OCR) by 50 basis points to 4.25%. Inflation: Annual inflation has decreased and is near the 1–3% target midpoint. Inflation expectations and core inflation are also aligning with this midpoint. Further OCR reductions are

Comes in lower than expected at 2.1% expected 2.3%, prior 2.1% The core reading, trimmed mean, has come in at 3.5% y/y … which is ugly up from the prior of 3.2% — Preview of, and background to, this data point is here: Australian CPI due at the bottom of the hour – what to

Sentiment certainly feels elevated but are there major red flags? Or still time to ride the equity wave? Price action has been constructive as dips are bought, even with crypto taking a break. So where do we stand? Let’s look at a few indicators. The fear and greed index: That’s not bad at all, barely

Good morning, afternoon and evening all. Any charts, technical analysis, trade ideas, thoughts, views, ForexLive traders would like to share and discuss with fellow ForexLive traders, please do so: This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

Via Twitter: — Expectations I had seen centred on: Headline crude -0.6mn barrelsDistillates +0.1 mn bblsGasoline -0.05mn — This data point is from a privately-conducted survey by the American Petroleum Institute (API): It’s a survey of oil storage facilities and companies The official report is due Wednesday morning US time. The two reports are quite

Earlier from Goldman Sachs: Asia LNG prices could jump to above $20/MMBTU if European gas supply tightens this winter. More now: China’s 2024 LNG imports are estimated to revert back to the previous record high of just over 80 million tonnes per year.Russia to China gas pipeline is expected to be fully utilized next year,

People’s Bank of China USD/CNY reference rate is due around 0115 GMT. The People’s Bank of China (PBOC), China’s central bank, is responsible for setting the daily midpoint of the yuan (also known as renminbi or RMB). The PBOC follows a managed floating exchange rate system that allows the value of the yuan to fluctuate

Previews of the Reserve Bank of New Zealand are here: Reserve Bank of New Zealand meet Wednesday, November 27, 2024 – previewReserve Bank of New Zealand rate cut expected on Wednesday 27 November – previewReserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) Shadow Board recommend a 50bp cash rate cut this weekANZ forceast a 50bp interest cut

Standard Chartered on Bitcoin, forecasts: $125,000 by the end of this year$200,000 by end-2025 Expects a dip below $88,700 in the current retracement phase. says to buy between $85,000 and $88,700 Stan Chart cite: large increase in bitcoin buying from exchange-traded funds (ETFs) and Microstrategy since the US electionsays average of buys is $88,700 This

Snippet preview via Commonwealth Bank of Australia: We anticipate headline CPI inflation remained at 2.1%/yr in October. While a soft monthly outcome a year ago makes it hard for the annual rate to remain low, we expect a further fall in electricity prices to weigh on inflation. The Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) noted households

1800 GMT/1300 US Eastern time: Dinner introductory remarks by ECB board member Philip Lane at Conference on “Macroeconomic modelling frontiers for research and policy” organised by the ECB in Frankfurt *** Philip Lane is serving as the Chief Economist and a member of the Executive Board of the European Central Bank (ECB) since June 2019.

Here is an interesting passage from a letter from Scott Bessent via his hedge fund in January of this year: Another differentiated view that we have is that Trump will pursue a weak dollar policy rather than implementing tariffs. Tariffs are inflationary and would strengthen the dollar–hardly a good starting point for a US industrial

Most focus will be on the inflation number: Australian CPI due at the bottom of the hour – what to expect and why its not official But, construction data also due. Via Commonwealth Bank of Australia, analysts there expect +0.7% q/q: Construction work done includes building work (residential and non – residential) and engineering work.

The Israeli cabinet approves cease-fire deal with Lebanon. This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

Gov Orr: misunderstanding that RBNZ projections show slower pace of rate cutsprojections are consistent with 50bp cut in February depending on economyexpect more volatility in prices because of geopoliticsdid not discuss cutting by 75bp (amends that to say very little discussion of 75 or 25)policy committee can meet at any time if needed You can

All three major indices are now positive on the day. The gains are led by the S&P index which is up 0.41%. The NASDAQ index is up 0.39%. The Dow industrial average which was down by as much as -309.91 points is now back in positive territory with a gain of 59.23 points or 0.13%.

BNZ preview the Reserve Bank of New Zealand meeting on November 27, saying that arguments for a 25, 50, or 75bp all have merits. Analysts at BNZ, though, say that a 50-point cut this meeting is their central view. Citing: economic spare capacity continues to grow and will do so for some time inflation will

Highlights from the Nov 6-7 FOMC decision: 🔹 ON FUTURE POLICY PATH: “Participants anticipated that if the data came in about as expected, with inflation continuing to move down sustainably to 2 percent and the economy remaining near maximum employment, it would likely be appropriate to move gradually toward a more neutral stance of policy

At 1 PM ET, the US treasury will auction $70 billion 5-year Treasury note auction. The primary demand for 5-year notes has been weaker this year, with 70% of auctions tailing by an average of 1.0 bp. According to BMO, the auction is expected to clear at the highest yield in five months (~4.20%), which

Earlier on this is here: Bank of England Lombardelli says too early to quantify effects of proposed tariffs Speaking in an interview with the Financial Times. The FT is gated, but Bloomberg have a further rundown. In brief: Lombardelli said she needs to see more evidence of cooling price pressures before she backs another interest

Group: “Some” “Some participants remarked that although increases in housing services prices remained somewhat elevated, they continued to expect that these increases would slow.””Some participants observed that, with supply and demand in the labor market being roughly in balance and in light of recent productivity gains, wage increases were unlikely to be a source of

WTI crude oil is at the lows of the day, down $0.80 to $68.12 after rising as high as $70.30 early in US trading. The spike to the highs of the day came on a Reuters report saying that OPEC+ nations are discussing a further delay to a planned output return that was slated for

Closing changes in Europe: Stoxx 600 -0.5%German DAX -0.6%France CAC -0.8%UK FTSE 100 -0.4%Spain IBEX -0.8%Italy’s FTSE MIB -0.6% Canada, Mexico and China were threatened with tariffs today, how long until Europe is threatened with the same? This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

The Mexican finance minister is on the wires saying that Tariffs are a tax that would hurt both the US and MexicoVows that they will find a solution Looking at the daily chart, the USDMXN is trading at 20.766. That is still just short of the high price from November 6 at 20.80915. A move

Eurostoxx -0.7%Germany DAX -0.5%France CAC 40 -0.8%UK FTSE -0.3%Spain IBEX -0.8%Italy FTSE MIB -0.9% This more than erases the gains from yesterday and reaffirms the sentiment from right after the US election. Trump hasn’t singled out Europe yet but after already taking aim at Mexico and Canada, it’s only a matter of time it would

Prior month -14Composite index -14 versus -10 estimatexx. Services index 9 vs 3 last monthManufacturing shipments -12 vs -8 last month Other details: Employment -10 vs -17 last month. Better but still negative. Wages 17 vs 16 last month. Marginally higher. Prices paid 2.48 vs 2.70 last month. Lower.Prices received 2.07 vs 1.71 last month.

BofA highlights four key policy dimensions of the incoming US administration that could suppress gold demand in the near term by driving higher rates and a stronger USD. However, these bearish factors do not derail BofA’s longer-term bullish outlook for gold, with a price target of $3,000/oz by end of 2025. Key Points: Near-Term Bearish

Ishiba says that the government is requesting the cooperation from businesses to achieve a “large” wage growth in the spring wage negotiations. This is to follow up from last year’s success and to break the deflationary cycle/mindset in Japan. It will also help the BOJ out a little in trying to convince markets of further

The USD moved higher vs the EUR, JPY, GBP and the CAD after Pres. elect Trump said he would impose tariffs on 25% vs Canada and Mexico goods, and a 10% blanket tariff on all China goods. The dollars gains on the comments were short lived vs the EUR, GBP and JPY, but maintained (mostly)

The Financial Times is gated, but in brief the piece says that Russia will seek to weaken support for Ukraine in preparing to launch a series of cyber attacks on Britain and other Nato members. The BBC has a non gated report here if you are after more. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan

There is an impressive turn unfolding in US equities and crypto. The S&P 500 is now up 22 points to a session high in a 0.4% gain. The index had fallen to nearly flat before rebounding strongly in the past hour. Similarly, bitcoin is now up 0.8% to $94,400 after falling as low as $91,400.

Axios reports that the AI czar will be charged with focusing both public and private resources to keep America in the AI forefront. The federal government has a tremendous need for AI technology, and the new czar would likely work with agency chief AI officers (which were established in President Biden’s AI executive order, and

More geopolitical: US is continuing to supply security assistance to bolster Ukraine defenses in the Eastthe involvement of North Korean troops in Ukraine conflict was a matter of grave concernUS is finalizing getting out the door the $50 billion that has been secured on the basis of frozen Russian sovereign assets.UKraine has money, munitions, and

Mendes was no doubt asked about tariffs but this is a standard line from central bankers relating to any policies. Separately, the StatsCan wholesale sales flash estimate for October is out and it was up a decent 0.5%. This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

Prior was 0.738mSales -17.3% vs +4.1% prior — worst since 2013 This is a terrible number and underscores the pain that higher rates are going to cause in everything housing-related, which is a big chunk of the economy. This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

Concerned about China’s non-market policies and practices that are leading to harmful overcapacity and market distortionsCall on China to refrain from adopting export control measures, particularly on critical minerals that could lead to significant supply disruptions This is the usual chorus. This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) is set to announce its interest rate decision in the upcoming trading session, with expectations leaning toward a 50 basis point rate cut, lowering the benchmark rate from 4.75% to 4.25%. The NZD/USD pair has been in a steady downtrend since late September, driven by expectations of further

Geopolitics: CBS is confirming an earlier report that US present Biden is expected to say that the US and France have secured a cease-fire deal between Israel and Lebanon. This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

Good morning, afternoon and evening all. Any charts, technical analysis, trade ideas, thoughts, views, ForexLive traders would like to share and discuss with fellow ForexLive traders, please do so: This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

Tariff threats don’t hit like they used to. Trump roiled markets early in Asian trading with a threat of 25% tariffs on Mexico and Canada. Bizarrely, he tied both tariffs to border security. Now I understand the sentiment on Mexico, which is something he’s been campaigning on forever but there’s not exactly a stream of

Prior was 108.7 (revised to 109.6)Present Situation Index 140.9 vs. 138.0 priorExpectations Index 92.3 vs 89.1 prior12-month inflation expectations declined from 5.3% last month to 4.9% “Consumer confidence continued to improve in November and reached the top of the range that has prevailed over the past two years,” said Dana Peterson, Chief Economist at The

Inflation expected to hit ECB’s target in 2025.Eurozone economy will grow slowly and recover gradually.Salary and services inflation remain persistent, maintain risk of inflation moderating more slowly than expected.If fresh statistics and forecast support current inflation and growth view, ECB should continue to cut rates.Downward direction of rates is clear and the pace depends on

Comments from the Chinese Ambassador to Australia: US policy on trade with China and other countries will have impact Expect China and US to engage with each other to talk about each other’s policies on how to manage relationship The last time Trump ramped up tensions with China China responded by kicking Australia with punitive

The price of Bitcoin surged sharply following President-elect Trump’s victory, climbing from $66,798 on November 4 to $99,800 by Friday. However, over the weekend, the price corrected lower, and this downward momentum continued into Monday and today. The decline has pushed Bitcoin below its 100-hour and 200-hour moving averages, currently at $97,073 and $95,676, respectively.

It’s been a slow start to the week for economic data but picks up at the top of the hour with a trio of releases: Consumer confidenceNew home sales The Richmond Fed’s services index Confidence is an interesting one because the survey covers the first two weeks of November and the election split that in

The major US stock indices all closed higher on the day. The gains were led by the Russell 2000 which rose by 1.47%. However like a selling took the price below the all-time high closing level of 2442.74 by less than one point. Close, but no cigar. The Dow industrial average did close at a

The USD is mostly lower in up and back-down trading today. The US yields are mixed and so are the major US stock indices. Pres Elect Trump said that a blanket 25% tariff on Canada and Mexico would be one of his first executive orders, and would charge China 10% on all goods that led

Prior was 4.13% Indirects were awarded 71.6% vs. an average of 65.8%, that’s also the 2nd highest on record Even with today’s big rally in fixed income, this is the highest yield in four months. Still, it’s a 1.8 bps stop through and that highlights real-money demand for fixed income, which is an impressive endorsement

Ukraine hit Russia with US-made ATACMS twice in the last three days.Russian defence ministry says preparing retaliatory measures. This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at www.forexlive.com.

Deutsche Bank chief global strategist outlook for the benchmark US equity index: S & P 500 to rise as high as 7,000 year-end 2025 “We see S & P 500 buybacks rising from an annual run rate of $1.1 trillion currently to about $1.3 trillion next year, rising in line with earnings. We see the

Prior was +0.4% m/mPrices +4.6% y/y vs +4.8% expectedPrior y/y reading 5.2% Data from the FHFA: House prices up 0.7% m/m vs +0.4% priorPrices up 4.4% y/y vs 4.4% prior This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

US oil and gas producers will not raise output significantly in the coming yearsTrump mulls an AI czar – AxiosECB’s Rehn: Inflation expected to hit ECB’s target in 2025ECB’s Centeno: Inflation is getting close to the 2% targetECB’s Villeroy: Trump policies likely to have limited impact on European inflationPotential for dollar selling this month end

The drop this week sees price take a tumble from $2,700 with the low earlier touching $2,605. That was held by the 38.2 Fib retracement level of the swing higher since the middle of November, seen at around $2,607 currently. That led to a slight bounce with price action then weaving in and out of

Japan October 2024 PPI Services (Corporate Services Price Index) more to come *** Japan Services Producer Price Index (PPI) measures the average change over time in the prices received by service providers (in the private sector) for their services in Japan Data published by the Bank of Japancovers services such as transportation and communication, finance

US Treasury yields are at the highs of the day, up 4-6 bps across the curve in a move that unwinds nearly half of the drop yesterday. With that, the US dollar is making headway. The pound had traded higher against the US dollar but has now reversed course and is down 11 pips to

🌟 Sector Overview Today’s stock market heatmap reveals a day of notable optimism across several key sectors. The technology and healthcare sectors emerged as the day’s big winners, while industrial stocks faced slight headwinds. Here’s what investors need to know about the dynamics shaping today’s market landscape. 📈 Technology and Semiconductors: Nvidia (NVDA) is leading

Prior was +2.0Revenue index +10.9 vs +9.2 prior This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

Is Intel Stock a Buy or Sell? Here’s My Strategic Orientation for 2024 🎯 Hi, Itai Levitan here! 👋 If you’re looking at Intel stock (INTC) and wondering whether it’s time to buy the dip or sell the rally, here’s a flexible framework to consider. The market has its own rhythm, so this is an

Shanghai Securities News cites analysts for the opinion that the People’s Bank of China will possibly cut the RRR in December by 25bps-50bps They say the MLF yesterday paves the way. I’m not sure of that chain of causation though? — The Reserve Requirement Ratio (RRR) is a central bank regulation that sets the minimum

Exxon Mobil Corp’s Upstream President Liam Mallon said at a conference in London that the Trump’s “drill, baby, drill” will be unlikely under Trump because “the vast majority, if not everybody, is primarily focused on the economics of what they are doing”. The US is pumping more than 13 million barrels of crude a day,

Fundamental Overview The US Dollar remains the strongest currency but overall, we haven’t got much action in the past couple of weeks due to the lack of key catalysts and the market’s pricing remaining largely unchanged around roughly three rate cuts by the end of 2025. During the Asian session, we saw the greenback getting

The dollar is a little higher at the balance today, helped by Trump making his first push on tariffs already. From earlier: Trump threatens a 25% tariff on Mexico and Canada The yen is sitting a little higher though, with USD/JPY a touch softer after the gap lower yesterday. The pair did fill the gap

US stocks aren’t phased by Trump’s latest threats of tariffs on Canada, Mexico and China. S&P 500 futures are up 17 points, 0.3%, ahead of the open, which is the best level in the pre-market session. One warning sign on the consumer comes from electronics retailer Best Buy, whose shares are down 4% after earnings

Bank of England Chief Economist Huw Pill speaking in parliament on TuesdayEuropean Central Bank speakers Tuesday include Mc Caul, CentenoFX option expiries for 26 November 10am New York cutHere is a summary of the policies Trump has said he will pursue in his upcoming 2nd termChina says ‘No one will win a trade war’ after

That said, Villeroy says that Trump’s policies could have the potential to impact market rates though. And rightfully so, that especially if tariffs add to further economic woes for Europe. For now, policymakers continue to try and feed the narrative of a soft landing in this “recovery” phase. If this is their definition of a

Fundamental Overview The US Dollar remains the strongest currency but overall, we haven’t got much action in the past couple of weeks due to the lack of key catalysts and the market’s pricing remaining largely unchanged around roughly three rate cuts by the end of 2025. We saw some interesting moves in other major pairs

1500 GMT/1000 US Eastern time: Bank of England Chief Economist Huw Pill is due to speak to the Economic Affairs Committee from the House of Lords, the upper house of parliament. The subject of questioning will be On Britain’s poor record of economic inactivity and long-term sickness Sheesh. What’s Pill gonna recommend, a rate cut?

Bloomberg (gated) with the info from Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis President Neel Kashkari said it is still appropriate to consider another interest-rate cut at the December Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetinggovernment must take steps to achieving a sustainable fiscal pathnatural rate may be higher and policy not as restrictive This article was written

We will have new projections in DecemberBut developments point to growth remaining fragileGeopolitical risks are increasingPotential changes in US trade policy will only add to the uncertaintyWhen one imposes tariffs, they have to be prepared for retaliation – which can start a vicious cycle At the balance, the emphasis on a “fragile” economy and added

Inflation will fade into the background as it settles at 2%.This will allow Canadian consumers and businesses to spend and invest with confidence.If the economy evolves broadly in line with out forecast, it’s reasonable to expect further rate cuts.We will take decisions one at a time.If the Bank hadn’t raised rates, long-term inflation expectations may

The memecoin market is evolving rapidly, with Pepeto ($PEPETO) emerging as a project focused on supporting and integrating all memecoins through its multifaceted ecosystem. Offering features such as a zero-fee trading platform, a blockchain bridge, and a swap solution, Pepeto aims to enhance interoperability, accessibility, and liquidity in the memecoin space. With its presale price

You may have seen the overly excited headlines hitting on this from around the place … they came as Bitcoin was getting smashed lower so were best ignored. However, its not bad news for the crypto and now that some of the excitement has worn off, some detail: Rumble has announced a corporate treasury diversification

In recent weeks, the debates have mostly revolved around Trump, particularly the changes his return to power could bring to the world. And, of course, most are expecting the worst… One of the main concerns is the possibility of new tariffs being imposed on imports, which could lead to a full-blown trade war, as those

From earlier: Trump threatens a 25% tariff on Mexico and Canada And so it begins. The random Trump tweets sending waves across markets. The first victims are the Canadian dollar and Mexican peso. The former tumbled on the headline, with USD/CAD racing to its highest levels since 2020 as it briefly breached 1.4100. The high

This is a repeat. The question we need answered is whether rates will be lower by the end of 2024. Market pricing for a cut next month is 53%, and 47% for a hold. More: Says he’s closer to the median on neutral rate estimateRates have a fair way to go before they get to

Not to jinx the market 16 minutes to the close but the Russell 2000 is on pace for a record close. Currently the price is at 2451.64 up 45.97 points or 1.91%. The all-time high close going back to November 5, 2021 is at 2442.74. So there’s a 9-point cushion between now and the 4

Israel and Lebanon agree to terms of a ceasefire – reportGeopolitics: Israel government has reservations about details of agreement on ceasefireECB’s Nagel: increasingly confident over disinflationFed’s Goolsbee: Interest rates will be lower by the end of 2025US sells 2-year notes at 4.274% vs 4.292% WIECB’s Lane: Gradualism is not a universal principle, some times require

Fundamental Overview The US Dollar remains the strongest currency but overall, we haven’t got much action in the past couple of weeks due to the lack of key catalysts and the market’s pricing remaining largely unchanged around roughly three rate cuts by the end of 2025. During the Asian session, we saw the greenback getting

A Canadian official says: “It was a good discussionThey agreed to stay in touch” Earlier: Trump threatens a 25% tariff on Mexico and Canada CAD got trashed: This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

EU must be unitedWe must seek talks with US so not everyone loses as a result of a trade war With Canada and Mexico the first ones to be targeted by Trump, Europe will have to look over their shoulders as Trump won’t be far behind in singling out the bloc next. This article was

European economy is facing stagnationThat is the price we pay to fight inflation Just some token remarks there by Centeno in general. There is a slight nod in leaning towards saying that they are getting close to achieving their inflation target. But that seems to be the case as they’re faced with a further slowdown

An almost empty data agenda for the session ahead: Japan Corporate Services Price Index (AKA Services Producer Price Index (PPI)) measures the average change over time in the prices received by service providers (in the private sector) for their services in Japan Data published by the Bank of Japancovers services such as transportation and communication,

Deutsche notes that the post-election moves in US assets are making for significant rebalancing signals on the basis of relative equity performance. According to the signals from their model, this will see potential for dollar supply with the largest signals being EUR/USD demand and USD/CHF supply. The firm also points out that there has been

German DAX futures -0.6%UK FTSE futures -0.5% And that’s arguably the reaction we’re seeing from European equities ahead of the open later. In China, the CSI 300 index closes down by 0.2%. Meanwhile, US futures are also looking fairly cautious with S&P 500 futures flat at the moment. This article was written by Justin Low

The NZD/USD pair opened with a gap higher but has spent the session oscillating within a narrow range. On the downside, support has held firm near swing levels established on November 14 and 18, as well as during two tests today, between 0.5835 and 0.5839. On the upside, the 100-hour moving average (MA), currently at

34 of 38 economists expect the Bank of Korea to hold its base rate at 3.25% at the November 28 meeting. 4 expect a 25 bps cut The info comes via a Reuters survey. The strength of the USD against the won is cited as a reason for the Bank to hold: “expected to force

Trump threatened tariffs on Canada, Mexico, and more on China earlier: Trump threatens a 25% tariff on Mexico and Canada A statement from the Washington Chinese Embassy “About the issue of US tariffs on China, China believes that China-US economic and trade cooperation is mutually beneficial in nature””No one will win a trade war or

The main highlight for today will be the release of the US Consumer Confidence report. We will also have some low tier data like US House Price Index and some regional Fed indices. We will conclude the day with the FOMC Meeting Minutes although as it’s usually the case it’s unlikely to provide anything new.

The USD/CAD gapped lower over the weekend following news that Scott Bessent would be named Treasury Secretary under Trump. However, the initial decline lacked follow-through, and the pair resumed its upward momentum. Key Levels Tested The price rebounded above the August 2024 high at 1.39458 and the 2022 high at 1.39785, signaling bullish intent.Momentum carried

A good ol’ sense of déjà vu, eh? It’s a throwback to the 2016 to 2020 era as Trump takes office again at the White House. And we didn’t have to wait too long before his first attempt to rattle markets. In case you missed it, he tweeted that: “As everyone is aware, thousands of

Kudo to Reuters for this summary of Trump’s trade policy, climate change, the war in Ukraine, electric vehicles, Americans’ taxes and illegal immigration. Link here: here is a summary of the policies he has said he will pursue when he takes office on Jan. 20 This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

The Chair of NATO’s Military Committee, Admiral Rob Bauer, spoke at an event in Brussels: warned business heads to prepare for a “Wartime Scenario” by bringing production lines back home instead of relying on countries like China or Russia”If we can make sure that all crucial services and goods can be delivered no matter what,

People’s Bank of China USD/CNY reference rate is due around 0115 GMT. The People’s Bank of China (PBOC), China’s central bank, is responsible for setting the daily midpoint of the yuan (also known as renminbi or RMB). The PBOC follows a managed floating exchange rate system that allows the value of the yuan to fluctuate

08:20 Bank of Canada Deputy Governor Rhys Mendes will speak at the Greater Charlottetown Area Chamber of Commerce in Prince Edward Island. The event is billed as: Rhys Mendes, Deputy Governor, Bank of Canada, will unpack how monetary policy worked to bring inflation down and why it is important to keep inflation near the 2%

1000 GMT/0500 US Eastern time: Speech followed by Q&A by ECB board member Elizabeth McCaul at the EBF’s Executive Committee Meeting in Frankfurt 1500 GMT/1000 US Eastern time: ECB member and Bank of Portugal Governor Mario Centeno will present the Bank of Portugal’s financial stability report Centeno is probably more likely to provide pertinent comments

There are a couple on the board for the day, as highlighted in bold. They are all for EUR/USD and layered at the 1.0415, 1.0475, and 1.0500 levels. The one at 1.0500 ties together with the 100-hour moving average currently, so that is likely to keep a lid on price action during the session. But

Chaos is not necessarily a bad thing for traders. Its time to get on board. Monday’s narrative: Bessent will moderate Trump on tariffs. What baloney. No sooner did I say this US yields and dollar dropped on Monday on the news that Trump had nominated Scott Bessent as Treasury Secretary. The reasoning is Bessent has

USD surges as the market gets reminded of reality. Trump says as one of his many first executive orders, he will charge Mexico and Canada a 25% tariff on all products coming into the US and will charge China ‘an additional 10% tariff’. CAD is getting smashed … well everything excluding the USD is. All

US yields and dollar dropped on Monday on the news that Trump had nominated Scott Bessent as Treasury Secretary. The reasoning is Bessent has indicated “a possible more balanced approach” to trade tariffs. That’s an interesting narrative. Folks love a story. I’d suggest the moves were more due to a cascade of “get me out

A note from RaboBank argues for EUR/USD to parity by mid 2025. Citing: Trump expected to implement trade tariffs, which would negatively impact eurozone economies, particularly Germany’sGerman exporters would thus “almost certainly welcome a softer euro” this could raise further calls for the European Central Bank to continue lowering ratesTrump’s planned tariffs and tax cuts

Synopsis: Barclays acknowledges that the Bank of Japan’s (BoJ) December meeting is now “live” following surprising inflation data and Governor Ueda’s recent remarks. While maintaining a January rate hike as their base case, Barclays highlights key factors that could influence an earlier move. Key Points: October Inflation Surprise: Japan’s nationwide October BoJ core CPI rose

The People’s Bank of China set the onshore yuan (CNY) reference rate for the trading session ahead. USD/CNY is the onshore yuan. Its permitted to trade plus or minus 2% from this daily reference rate.CNH is the offshore yuan. USD /CNH has no restrictions on its trading range.A significantly stronger or weaker rate than expected

Between them, Bitcoin and Ethereum make up 75% of the world’s cryptocurrency market. They both run on blockchain, both can be traded and used to make peer-to-peer payments, and both now have their own exchange-traded funds, as of earlier this year. However, they have their inherent differences. Bitcoin is more recognizable and, despite not having

Bloomberg carry the report. The news was out earlier, in brief: The European Union has proposed for the first time to target Chinese companies and individuals with visa bans and asset freezes over their dealings with Russian firms linked to Moscow’s war effort in Ukraine, according to RFE/RL. The new measures, which are laid out

British Retail Consortium (BRC) monthly shop price index, a monthly measure of UK shop price inflation. for November 2024. Comes in at -0.6% y/y prior -0.8% GBP has been caught up in the USD strength with Trump issuing a threat to impose a 25% tariff on all imports from Canada and Mexico on the day

Goldman Sachs published their outlook for inflation in 2025, titling it with the choice that will be made: “Tariffs or 2%” GS says the current level of PCE inflation, 2.7% y/y, “has returned most of the way back to the 2% target”, and that the muchh of the gap from 2.7 down to 2 “appears

ANZ highlights that the upcoming RBNZ meeting is unlikely to spark a positive shift for the NZD. Market expectations of a 50bp rate cut align with ongoing dovish policy trends, keeping downside pressure on the NZD against the USD and AUD. While year-end seasonality could provide some upside, near-term prospects remain neutral to negative. Key

ECB Nagel: Increasingly confident over disinflationRate cuts must be gradual as risks remain.Growth likely to stagnate in Q4Germany falling behind euro zone averageSlower wage growth to help service prices to moderateTrump tariffs boosting eurozone inflation a real risk The EURUSD tried to extend above technical lows including the 100 hour moving average, a downward sloping

Today is Scott Bessent day in financial markets and that means we’re all trying to get to know him. Naturally, given that he’s an FX guy, we’re all cheering for him. There are far too many academics in government and I don’t think there is any better experience for macro policymaking than global macro trading,

It will be interesting to see how Trump’s retribution tour shakes out. I suspect he has a pretty long list of enemies on it. This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

The US treasury will show $68 billion of 2-year notes at 1 PM ET. The 2-year note auction is the first of three coupon auctions this week. The treasury will auction five and seven-year notes on Tuesday and Wednesday respectively before the Thanksgiving holiday on Thursday. Last week the US treasury auctioned off 20-year bonds.

The GBP/USD pair moved higher from last week’s closing level near 1.2530 but encountered strong resistance around a key swing area between 1.2596 and 1.2614. After testing this zone, buyers gave way to sellers. In the early European session, the price decline paused just ahead of the 1.2530 level, prompting another attempt to the upside.

Al Jezeera is reporting that Israel government has reservations about some details of the agreement of the Israeli Lebanon cease-fire. In other the geopolitical war news: Germany’s defense minister Pitorius says that Russia’s war on Ukraine is no longer a regional conflict, Russia Ukraine war has reached an international dimension Gold continues its decline with

The Bank of England reduced rates by 25 basis points to 4.75% on November 7. 0900 GMT/0400 US Eastern time: Bank of England Deputy Governor Clare Lombardelli gives a speech at the annual Bank of England Watchers’ Conference organised by King’s Business School 1030 GMT/0530 US Eastern time: Bank of England Monetary Policy Committee member

Radio France Internationale reports on the tension in French politics at the moment: Political tensions peak over the French budget, with PM Barnier considering Article 49.3 to bypass parliamentary approval.Opposition, including Le Pen’s far-right RN and the left-wing bloc, threatens a no-confidence vote against the government.Le Pen criticizes Barnier’s inflexibility and dismisses fears of chaos

When people in markets found out that fund manager Scott Bessent was a leading candidate for Treasury Secretary, the natural question to ask was: How good was he? His fund was Key Square Capital and I searched hard for his returns when his name was floated. I wasn’t able to find them, which is almost

The US dollar is rebounding after a tough start to the week. It comes as the Bessent-bounce unwinds. The bond and stock markets started the day thrilled with the pick of the new Treasury Secretary but stocks have faded with the S&P 500 up 17 points after rising as much as 50. Treasury yields remain

Crude oil prices have dropped sharply as optimism grows for a potential peace agreement between Israel and Lebanon. Currently, prices are down approximately $2, trading near $69.13. The intraday low reached $69.01, bringing the price close to the 200-hour moving average (MA) (depicted as the green line on the chart). This MA level is acting

Rate cuts by year-end Fed: 13 bps (54% probability of rate cut at the upcoming meeting) 2025: 69 bps ECB: 39 bps (55% probability of 50 bps rate cut at the upcoming meeting) 2025: 146 bps BoE: 5 bps (78% probability of no change at the upcoming meeting) 2025: 74 bps BoC: 31 bps (75%

There were already some murmurs about this since Friday, so this just adds credence to the notion. As a reminder, OPEC+ will be discussing oil output policy next on 1 December i.e. this coming weekend. OPEC+ had already said that they would delay the planned start to easing production cuts from 1 December to 1

Gold and oil are under pressure on a report that Lebanon and Israel are near a ceasefire. I’m surprised at the size of these moves as a ceasefire has been close for weeks. In any case, gold is down around $40 on the news and oil down $1.50, both unwinding a big part of last

Gold Price Decline: A Technical Perspective Gold prices have dropped over $80 today, a decline of 3.00%, marking one of the most significant setbacks for the commodity this year. This comes after five consecutive days of gains last week. The dip coincides with easing geopolitical tensions following discussions of a potential cease-fire between Israel and

Retail sales in the third quarter in New Zealand were expected to fall, and while they have its not by as much as was respected. -0.1% q/q expected -0.5%, prior -1.2%For the y/y, -2.5% (prior -3.6%) Trade data for October was also published: Later this week we’ll get another cash rate cut from the Reserve

USD selling has pushed the USDCHF below a swing area between 0.8880 and 0.8992 (call it 0.8900). That comes after a sharp rise in Friday which took the price above technical target. The fall below the swing area is given sellers some comfort after the sharp rise of seen over the last seven or so

The EURUSD is correcting higher as dollar selling is dominating trading today. Yields are lower with the 10 year now down -11 basis points at 4.300%. The 2-year yield is down -6.4 basis points. Technically, the EURUSD is above a swing area between 1.0483 and 1.0500. The price also is looking to extend above a

Market moves today are dominated by repositioning after Trump nominated Scott Bessent to lead the Treasury Department. The US dollar is weaker, Treasury yields are lower and stock futures point to new records. Some quick thoughts: 1) One of us! Bessent is an FX guy. His career was made as a deputy for George Soros.

Flexible meeting by meeting approach assures that we remain responsiveGradualism is not a universal principle, some circumstances require a stronger responseIt is essential that we are agile in respond to risks that might crystallize We must remain open-minded about the speed and scale of rate moves The market is 50/50 on whether we will get

Treasury yields at the front end are still down 6 bps to 4.31% but they fell as low as 4.29% and have picked up recently. Some of the moves are caught up in the Israel-Lebanon headlines so it’s tough to get a clean read. At the same time, this chart is telling. There are a

A senior U.S. official told Axios that Isreal and Lebanon have agreed to the terms of the ceasefire. Oil is declining on this, though I don’t see it as a big surprise. The Israeli Security Cabinet is expected approve the deal on Tuesday. “We think we have a deal. We are on the goal line

In brief from the Cboe announcement on Friday afternoon US time: The first cash-settled index options related to the price of spot Bitcoin Options are based on the new Cboe Bitcoin U.S. ETF Index, designed to reflect the performance of spot Bitcoin ETFs listed on U.S. exchanges Options on standard and mini index, as well

Prior was -3.0Production -0.9 vs +14.6 priorNew orders -11.9 vs -3.7 priorCapex +7.8 vs +4.6 priorEmployment +4.9 vs -5.1 priorOutlook +5.8 vs -3.3 Comments in the report: Chemical manufacturing Global industrial demand for chemicals remains stable but at low levels. Our outlook six months forward is for very slow improvement, but that outlook is uncertain

The Reserve Bank of New Zealand is widely expected to cut its cash rate target by 50bp this week. Preview comments from KiwiBank: we’re expecting another 50bps rate cut on Wednesday. It’s the right thing to do. We know it, the market knows it, and the RBNZ should know it too. The updated OCR track

This is a composite index of data that’s already released so it’s not a market mover but it’s a decent overview of the US economy. Worst reading since JanuaryPrior -0.28 (revised to -0.27) This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

I worry about the risk mood at the moment as the megacap tech stocks and bitcoin turn lower. Bitcoin bulls were frothing at the idea of $100K in thinner weekend liquidity but $99,400 was the peak and the sellers have been in charge since. They took another run in Asia but couldn’t break the weekend

Sector Overview Today’s US stock market showcased a blend of resilience and gains across several sectors. Technology experienced a modest but stabilizing trend with Microsoft (MSFT) holding firm at +0.04%, while other tech giants like Adobe (ADBE) and Oracle (ORCL) posted gains of 1.26% and 1.13% respectively. Amid these trends, the semiconductor segment saw mixed

Fundamental Overview Copper continues to have a hard time as the market demands more stimulus from the Chinese officials to stimulate growth more strongly. Copper has been tightly correlated to the Chinese stock market in recent years which just shows the strong dependence of the commodity to the Chinese economy. That should not be surprising

Prior readings in parenthesis: Manufacturing: -16.7 (-18.3) Business-related services: +7.0 (+3.8) Construction: -5.3 (-8.6) Trade: -9.7 (-4.5) Overall: -11.1 (-12.8) This is a leading indicator for Europe, though it’s a small bump and trade is a big drag. This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

Recent CPI outturns show no asymmetry in inflation unwindingFall in services PPI appears to be slowing but probably due to erratic componentsRisks to outlook is uncertain and difficult to gaugeThe lack of reliable data is hindering monitoring process Do keep in mind that she’s arguably the most dovish member among the policy committee when reading

As a critical resource in the global economy, oil is integral not only to the energy sector but also to industries such as transportation, manufacturing, and agriculture. Changes in its prices impact inflation rates, production costs, and global trade. For instance, oil price increases can accelerate global inflation. This effect ripples through various sectors, with

It is too early to declare victory on inflationWill be monitoring data flow in the coming months to calibrate policy as neededUK economy has made good progress on disinflationBut persistent components of inflation and labour market uncertainty are causes for concernOutlook for wages, services prices is unclearBOE is hampered by challenges on quality of labour

China – Citic Securities say PBoC may cut RRR, buy government bonds in Decemberto smooth liquidity fluctuations This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

The week ahead features several key economic events to watch. On Tuesday, the U.S. will release the CB consumer confidence index, new home sales, and the Richmond manufacturing index, providing updates on consumer sentiment and economic activity. Wednesday’s attention shifts to Australian inflation data, followed by the Reserve Bank of New Zealand’s (RBNZ) monetary policy

New Zealand retail sales data for Q3 is the highlight. Retail spending in NZ has been pressured by high rates and a weak economy, and this is expected to show in the data again today, despite the RBNZ kicking off its easing cycle in August: The RBNZ reduced the Official Cash Rate (OCR) by 25

Wall Street Journal (gated) with the report : In his first interview following his selection, Bessent said his policy priority will be to deliver on Trump’s various tax-cut pledges making his first-term cuts permanenteliminating taxes on tips, social-security benefits and overtime payenacting tariffs and cutting spending will also be a focusas will be “maintaining the

Good morning, afternoon and evening all. Any charts, technical analysis, trade ideas, thoughts, views, ForexLive traders would like to share and discuss with fellow ForexLive traders, please do so: This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

The gold price has fallen away to open the week here in Asia, to lows circa USD2690. Down from a three-week high. On Friday UBS sent out a note confirming their US$2,900 target for gold by year-end 2025. Analysts cite: gold the “preferred hedge against geopolitical tensions” (UBS cite Russia’s launch of an experimental hypersonic

And typically, that means broader markets will likely observe a more quiet and slower trading period as well. Even though Thanksgiving falls on Thursday and markets will be open again on Friday, the festive period usually sees many US businesses and offices in a holiday mood until the weekend. As a result, just be mindful

The greenback is recovering losses to start European morning trade, as it starts to chew into the opening gap lower today. USD/JPY is now up to 154.60 levels, just a few pips shy of closing its opening gap lower: Besides that, the commodity currencies are also seeing opening gains somewhat covered against the dollar now.

Fundamental Overview Crude oil remains confined in a range between the 72.00 resistance and the 67.00 support as the market continues to weigh the future scenarios. On one hand, we have the Trump’s victory which might be seen as bearish in the short term for fear of the tariffs and a slowdown in global growth

Bessent said his policy priority will be to deliver on Trump’s various tax-cut pledgesUBS target US$2,900 gold year-end 2025 – preferred hedge against geopolitical tensionsBank of England Dhingra and Lombardelli speaking on MondayPeople’s Bank of China shift to the MLF as the main policy tool – drain today facilitatesEuropean Central Bank speakers Monday include Lane,

The USD is lower. US stocks are higher in pre-market futures trading. US yields are lower. The market is approving of the naming of Scott Bessent the new Treasury Secretary. Bessent won the battle that was whittled down to Kevin Warsh and Marc Rowan after Howard Lutnick was knocked off the list and was instead

Headlines: Dollar down as Trump picks Scott Bessent for role of Treasury secretaryWeekly update on interest rate expectationsReminder: It will be a holiday-shortened week in the USECB’s Lane: Monetary policy should not remain restrictive for too longBOE’s Lombardelli: I support a gradual removal of monetary policy restrictionBOE’s Lombardelli: We remain focused more on services prices

Prior 86.5Current conditions 84.3 vs 85.4 expectedPrior 85.7Expectations 87.2 vs 87.0 expectedPrior 87.3 German business morale dipped in November with both the current conditions and outlook readings also easing compared to the month before. This just reaffirms the struggles in Europe’s largest economy with storm clouds still brewing going into next year. It’s not a

Eurostoxx +0.9%Germany DAX +0.9%France CAC 40 +1.0%UK FTSE +0.4%Spain IBEX +0.7%Italy FTSE MIB +0.6% This comes as US futures are also seen higher, with S&P 500 futures up 0.5% currently. The more positive mood is to do with Trump’s pick for Treasury secretary, Scott Bessent. Here is his take on tariffs among other things, if

We should not focus too much on one set of data (regarding last week’s PMI data)We remain focused more on services prices and wagesLabour market is still relatively tight This reaffirms the narrative on “gradualism” and if anything, she is shrugging off suggestions that could point towards a rate cut next month. This article was

Domestic sight deposits CHF 451.0 bn vs CHF 455.0 bn prior Swiss sight deposits fall back in the past week but remains within the range seen in the last few months. Here’s the trend: This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

German DAX futures +0.5%French CAC 40 futures +0.4%UK FTSE futures +0.1% The mood here is helped by a gap higher in US futures as well, with S&P 500 futures seen up 0.4% currently. The broader market moves to start the week are driven by Trump pick’s for Treasury secretary here. Elsewhere, the dollar is still

It’s the 25th of the month, MLF day. We’d usually have the announcement by now. Nothing so far. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

The Bank for International Settlements have published research showing fnancial markets have become more susceptible to liquidity shortages. Citing the rise of algorithmic trading and increased market fragmentation. From the BIS report, in brief: average bid-ask spread has significantly declined across stock, foreign exchange and government bond markets over the past 25 years, indicating improved

As it’s usually the case, we have a pretty empty day today on the data front. The only highlight will be the German IFO release in the European session. The IFO index is similar to the German Composite PMI as they are correlated, so it shouldn’t be a big deal. Other than that, we don’t

There are just a couple to take note of, as highlighted in bold. They are for EUR/USD at the 1.0440 and 1.0485 levels. The pair opened with a gap higher today amid a weaker dollar and has been sticking thereabouts since. Offers layered closer to the 1.0500 mark are still in play but the expiries

Fundamental Overview Gold saw a quick drop today during the Asian session with the news of Scott Bessent nomination for Treasury secretary as the most likely culprit. Bessent is a fiscal hawk, and the market views him as a great pick for the job. In fact, one of the main reasons why the magnitude of

The initial reaction seems to be that billionaire Scott Bessent is a “markets guy”. Wall Street is reacting favourably with US futures gapping higher while bonds are also bid, dampening the dollar. So, why exactly are markets responding to Bessent in such a way? Let’s take a look. Bessent has been a rather vocal guy,

The Reserve Bank of New Zealand meet this week, with a 50bp rate cut expected, although 75bp is getting fomw love too. ANZ forecast a 50bp interest cut from the RBNZ next weekReuters poll: RBNZ to cut cash rate to 4.25% on November 27Goldman Sachs expects a 50bp Reserve Bank of New Zealand rate cut

The job is not done yet on inflation, services prices still need to come downInflation is close to the 2% targetBarring new geopolitical or political risks, a large part of the final stage in bringing inflation back to 2% target will be completed next yearMonetary policy must respond to both downside and upside risks to

As is usual for a Monday morning, market liquidity is very thin until it improves as more Asian centres come online … prices are liable to swing around, so take care out there. Indicative rates, USD lower to open the new week: EUR/USD 1.0476USD/JPY 154.09GBP/USD 1.2586USD/CHF 0.8925USD/CAD 1.3959AUD/USD 0.6536NZD/USD 0.5858 This article was written by

The news is here from earlier: PBOC net drain 550bn via MLF. Rate unchanged at 2% The Wall Street Journal (gated) recaps the move from the Bank, pointing out: In recent months, Chinese authorities have been recasting the PBOC’s seven-day reverse repo rate as the main policy rate while letting the shorter-term operation play a

The Axios report cites Israeli and US officials Israel and Lebanon are on the cusp of a ceasefire agreement Israeli media has reported that Israel agreed in principle to the proposal for a ceasefire in Lebanon Israel Broadcasting Corporation agreement with Lebanon not yet reached, issues remain. We’ll see. Remember though, for markets hope is

US Republican Senators Lindsey Graham and Tom Cotton have started to draft a package of sanctions on the International Criminal Court (ICC). Graham spoke on Fox, warning US allies: “To any Ally: Canada, Britain, Germany, France, if you try to help the ICC, we are gonna sanction you. We should crush your economy.” A heads

People’s Bank of China USD/CNY reference rate is due around 0115 GMT. The People’s Bank of China (PBOC), China’s central bank, is responsible for setting the daily midpoint of the yuan (also known as renminbi or RMB). The PBOC follows a managed floating exchange rate system that allows the value of the yuan to fluctuate

The People’s Bank of China set the onshore yuan (CNY) reference rate for the trading session ahead. USD/CNY is the onshore yuan. Its permitted to trade plus or minus 2% from this daily reference rate.CNH is the offshore yuan. USD /CNH has no restrictions on its trading range.A significantly stronger or weaker rate than expected

People’s Bank of China issue a one year MLF at 2% 900bn yuan added 1445bn yuan in MLF mature today …. matured on November 15net 550bn yuan drain This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

Early FX rates were posted here: Monday morning open levels – indicative forex prices – 25 November 2024 The gap lower for the USD pretty much across the major’s board has remained. USD/JPY is under 154.50: About the only news of note over the weekend was the announcement: Weekend – Trump nominated Scott Bessent to

Coming up from the ECB today: 1630 GMT/1130 US Eastern time: European Central Bank Chief Economist Philip Lane gives a speech at the annual Bank of England Watchers’ Conference organised by King’s Business School 2000 GMT/1500 US Eastern time: Gabriel Makhlouf, governor of the Central Bank of Ireland and a member of the European Central

Goldman Sachs Asset Management 2025 Outlook report is titled “Reasons to Recalibrate.” On bonds, GS is bullish: “When the Fed cuts rates, history suggests the bond market is where investors should want to be,” see broad-based fixed income gainsexpects the Fed to cut rates in December and early 2025main risk for fixed income is renewed

In early FX trade we had a gap down for the US dollar: Monday morning open levels – indicative forex prices – 25 November 2024FX gaps remain in early Tokyo trade The move has been reflected in US Sunday evening futures trade now, 10 yr UST & equity index futures higher. SPX (this is a

Bessent and ex-Fed Warsh were two front runners, Bessent has been given the nod. Bessent background, in brief: was the CIO of Soros Fund Managementfounder of Key Square Capital Management, a hedge fundcame out for the MAGA movement after working for Sorosdonated to Trump’s presidential campaign, has donated to Democrats alsoadvised Trump on economic policy

Mon: German Ifo (Nov), US National Activity Index (Oct)Tue: FOMC Minutes (Nov); US New Home Sales (Oct), Richmond Fed (Nov)Wed: RBNZ Policy Announcement; Australian CPI (Oct), German GfK (Dec), US GDP 2nd (Q3), PCE Prices Prelim. (Q3), PCE Price Index (Oct), Initial Jobless Claims (23rd Nov), Durable Goods (Oct)Thu: US Holiday: Thanksgiving. CBRT Minutes (Nov);

UPCOMING EVENTS: Monday: PBoC MLF, German IFO.Tuesday: US Consumer Confidence, FOMC Minutes.Wednesday: Australia Monthly CPI, RBNZ Policy Decision, US Q3 GDP 2nd Estimate, US PCE, US Durable Goods, US Jobless Claims.Thursday: German CPI. (US Holiday)Friday: Tokyo CPI, Japan Unemployment Rate, France CPI, Switzerland Q3 GDP, Eurozone CPI, Canada GDP. Tuesday The US Consumer Confidence is

Villeroy heads up the Bank of France. He spoke with Ouest-France newspaper, commenting on wages and CPI: “Prices are increasing less quickly than wages on average — this also allows us to lower interest rates” Villeroy stressed that the ECB reaches its interest rate policy decisions independent of the Federal Reserve: “The proof is that

The Fed’s twice yearly Financial Stability Report highlights: U.S. government fiscal sustainability tops the list of financial system risks cited in the Fed survey of market contacts for the semi-annual Financial Stability Report.Persistent inflation dropped to No. 5 on the risks list from No. 1 in the prior survey, now tied with global trade risks.Trade

Major indices close higher for the trading week by the Russell 2000Baker Hughes oil rigs up 1 Gas rigs down -2European shares close higher despite weak data todayAttack the currency trend: The EURUSD has been stepping lower with more selling todayWhat is the latest tilt for US Treasury Secretary?University of Michigan consumer sentiment final for

The stock indices close week. For the day, the Dow and Russell 2000 rose solidly, the S&P and the Nasdaq less so. Dow industrial average rose 426 points or 0.97% at 44296S&P index rose 20.63 points or 0.35% it 5969.34NASDAQ index rose 31.23 points or 0.16% at 19003.65Russell 2000 rose 42.65 points or 1.80% at

The USD/CHF pair, after trading within a range of 0.8400 to 0.8550 through late August and October, transitioned from consolidation into a trending phase. This shift began as prices broke through key levels in a step-by-step manner, marking the transition from non-trend to trend. Last week, the price moved above the 50% midpoint of the

Baker rig count for the current week: Oil rigs, up 1 to 479 Natural gas rigs down -2 to 99Total rigs for the week down 1 to 583 This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

Preliminary 73.0Consumer sentiment 71.8 versus 73.7 estimate. Preliminary 73.0. Prior month 70.5Expectations and 76.9 versus 78.5 preliminary. Prior month 74.1Current conditions 63.9 versus 64.4 preliminary. Prior month 64.91-year inflation 2.6% versus 2.6% preliminary5-year inflation 3.2% versus 3.1% preliminary. Prior month 3.0% The data was weaker than the preliminary but up from the prior month. The

The major European indices are closing the day higher despite what was weak flash European PMI data for both manufacturing and service. The final numbers are showing: German DAX +0.89%France’s CAC +0.58%UK’s FTSE 100 1.38%Spain’s Ibex 0.39%Italy’s FTSE MIB 0.60% For the trading week indices are mixed with France and Italy moving lower and Germany,

Fundamental Overview Overall, we’ve seen a rangebound price action in the US Dollar this week as the market’s pricing remained largely unchanged due to the lack of catalysts at three rate cuts by the end of 2025. This morning, we saw some strong bids in the greenback entirely due to the weak Eurozone PMIs as

The USD/JPY pair moved lower in the early Asian session but found support once again near the rising 100-bar moving average on the 4-hour chart, currently at 153.944. This level, which also held yesterday and prompted a bounce, remains a key technical support. Staying above this moving average maintains a bullish bias, while a break

The European data was yucky (if I can use a favorite word of my grandson). All the data from German GDP, to UK retail sales and flash services and manufacturing data missed the expectations. Only one, UK flash services PMI, was 50.0 or better and it came in right at 50.0. Below is summary of

The EUR/USD pair continued its downward trend today, extending a week-long selloff as bearish momentum carried the price through key technical levels. Weak European flash PMI data and concerns from ECB officials over growth and inflation pressured the euro, while stronger-than-expected US PMI data (offset slightly by weaker University of Michigan data) provided support for

Prior month manufacturing 48.5. Prior month services 55.0S&P global flash manufacturing indexS&P global flash services index This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

The major US stock indices are marginally higher to start the new trading day: Dow industrial average is up 80 points or 0.19% at 43960S&P index is up 6.47 points or 0.10% of 5954.90NASDAQ index is now trading marginally lower by 4.5 points or -0.2% at 18963. The S&P global/manufacturing and services data will be

Manufacturing PMI 43.2 vs 43.0 expected and 43.0 prior.Services PMI 49.4 vs 51.6 expected and 51.6 prior.Composite PMI 47.3 vs 48.6 expected and 48.6 prior. Key findings: HCOB Flash Germany Composite PMI Output Index(1) at 47.3 (Oct: 48.6). 9-month low. HCOB Flash Germany Services PMI Business Activity Index(2) at 49.4 (Oct: 51.6). 9-month low. HCOB

Singapore Q3 GDP 3.2% q/q expected 2.5%, preliminary was 2.1% +5.4% y/y expected +4.6%, preliminary 4.1% Singapore’s trade ministry upgraded its GDP growth forecast for 2024 to “around 3.5%” from a previous range of 2.0% to 3.0%. The ministry said it expects growth of 1.0% to 3.0% in 2025. This article was written by Eamonn

Federal Reserve Board Governor Michelle Bowman speaking FridayJust over half of economists surveyed expect the Bank of Japan to hike rates in DecemberEuropean Central Bank President Lagarde, plus Nagel & Schnabel (& others) speaking FridaySwiss National Bank Chairman of the Governing Board, Martin Schlegel, speaking FridayTrump Considers Warsh Serving as Treasury Secretary—and Then Fed ChairGoldman

In a client note Deutsche Bank is cautioning against expectations for significant rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, citing robust economic growth and persistent inflationary pressures. While the bank’s baseline scenario envisions a 25-basis-point rate cut in December, it notes this is a “close call” and far from certain. Beyond that, Deutsche Bank anticipates an

Inflation target has allowed central bank to respond flexibly to shocksCentral bank’s main tools are policy rate, FX interventionsGlobal economy slowdown has hit Switzerland harder due to currency appreciationRecognises franc’s safe haven natureWill continue to ensure price stability Not really anything noteworthy there by Schlegel. For now, the SNB is still expected to cut its

Services PMI 50.0 vs 52.0 expected and 52.0 prior.Manufacturing PMI 48.6 vs 50.0 expected and 49.9 prior.Composite PMI 49.9 vs 51.8 expected and 51.8 prior. Key Findings: Flash UK PMI Composite Output Index(1) : 49.9 (Oct: 51.8). 13-month low. Flash UK Services PMI Business Activity Index (2) : 50.0 (Oct: 52.0). 13-month low. Flash UK

Prior 51.6Manufacturing PMI 45.2 vs 46.0 expectedPrior 46.0Composite PMI 48.1 vs 50.0 expectedPrior 50.0 The stark drop here is largely attributed to the decline in the services sector, in which activity fell to a 10-month low. However, manufacturing conditions also struggled with the contraction deepening amid a further decline in production on the month. As

Sector Overview The stock market is showcasing a mixed bag of performances today, characterized by a notable decline in communication services, while some tech giants experience pressure. Simultaneously, healthcare and consumer defensive sectors are displaying strength. 📉 Communication Services: This sector is seeing substantial declines, with Google (GOOG) facing a significant drop of 1.52%. Meta

The major US stock indices moved higher today with the Russell 2000 leading the way with a gain of 1.65%. The NASDAQ index lags with a small 0.03% rise for the day. The final numbers are showing: Dow industrial average +461.88 points or 1.06% at 43870.35.S&P index up 31.6 points or 0.53% at 5948.71.NASDAQ index

ECBs Villeroy is weighing in after weaker data today: ECB is achieving a soft landingNot behind the curve todayWill pay close atttention to risk of undershooting target, keeping economic activity unnecessarily subdued. This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

The fight for US Treasury Secretary is thought to be coming to a conclusion with Kevin Warsh and Scott Bessent the betting favorite on Polymarket. However, Fox’s Gasparino has tweeted that Marc Rowan made a strong pitch for the post to Pres. Trump. Needless to say, the President would want to have someone who would

The futures are implying a mixed opening with 30 minutes to go until the opening bell Dow is up 19 pointsS&P index is down -4.21 pointsNASDAQ index is down -35.78 points Looking at the US debt market: 2-year 4.338%, -1.0 basis points5-year 4.282%, -2.2 basis points10-year 4.402%, -3.0 basis points30-year 4.593%, -2.7 basis points Looking

This is via Roger Wilkins, an economist at The University of Melbourne. A bleak picture indeed. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

Japan PM Ishiba says stimulus package will be around 39 trln yen state spending seen around 13.9 tln yenincreasing wages a top priority 39 tln yen is around 252bn USD NHK came about half way with their estimate: Japan’s economic package expected around 21.9 trillion yen This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

Headlines: Euro slumps to near two-year low as PMI data disappointsEURUSD Technical Analysis – The Euro falls to the lowest level since 2022Poor French and German PMI data keeps ECB 50 bps rate cut in playStocks stumble in European morning tradeGold weathers the storm and looks to make it five for five in trading this

The AUDUSD opened the week below a swing area between 0.6471 and 0.6479. On Monday the price moved above that area and stayed above it for the rest the week. In trading today, the low price move down to test a low of that swing area but found willing sellers. The price has since rotated

Prior was 0.0%New Housing Price Index YoY 0.8% vs 0.2% prior. This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at www.forexlive.com.

Goldman Sachs: Sees upside risks to Brent prices in short term, with Brent rising to mid-$80s in 2025H1 if Iran supply drops 1mb/d on tighter sanctions enforcementSees medium-term price risks skewed to the downside given high spare capacityEstimates that Brent drops to the low $60s in 2026 in a 10% across-the-board tariff scenario or if

ECB Nagel is on the wires saying” PMI data confirm that Germany is stagnating and start of next year will be complicatedNeed to wait for next projections before discussing rate capsize.We are on the right track Nagel is considered more of a hawk. The EURUSD fell sharply earlier today off of the weaker than expected

Today is the Flash PMIs Day for the Eurozone, the UK and the US. We will also get the Canadian Retail Sales and the Final UMich Consumer Sentiment data although they are unlikely to be market moving. Eurozone Manufacturing PMI: 46.0 expected vs. 46.0 prior.Eurozone Services PMI: 51.6 expected vs. 51.6 prior.UK Manufacturing PMI: 50.0

Earlier today, I posted: USDCHF: The USDCHF held resistance at the 100-hour moving average yesterday (blue line on the chart below), and held support against its 200 hour moving average.Today in the early Asian hours, the price broke below the 200-hour moving average and continued down toward the next target at the 200-day moving average

A note from UBS highlights that despite stronger-than-expected UK inflation data and a recent rate cut by the Bank of England, market sentiment remains bearish on the British pound. The pound briefly spiked above $1.27 against the dollar after Wednesday’s robust CPI report, but gains were swiftly erased, reflecting broader dollar strength driving the GBP/USD

Wall Street Journal (gated) report: Trump has floated selecting financier Kevin Warsh as his Treasury secretary with the understanding that he could later be nominated to lead the Federal Reserve when Jerome Powell’s term as chair ends in 2026, according to people familiar with the matter.Trump was still weighing how he would approach the Fed

Japan inflation data October 2024, all figures are y/y. Headline national CPI 2.3% expected 2.2%, prior 2.5% CPI excluding Fresh Food & Energy 2.3% (often referred to as ‘core-core’ inflation, its the closest to US core inflation) expected Exp. 2.3%, prior 2.1% CPI excluding Fresh Food 2.3% (core inflation) expected Exp. 2.2%, prior 2.4% Yen

1230 GMT / 0730 US Eastern time: Speech by SNB’s Chairman of the Governing Board, Martin Schlegel, The SNB and its Watchers Carlos Lenz, Head of Economic Affairs, SNB is also speaking 1350 GMT / 0850 US Eastern time. This event, modeled after The ECB and Its Watchers, tries to bring together academics, market participants,

A note from Deutsche Bank analysts see them warning that a full-force implementation of the Trump administration’s economic agenda, without a counterbalancing response from Europe or China, could send the euro plunging against the U.S. dollar. EUR/USD could fall below parity, potentially reaching 0.95 or even lower. Under the most aggressive scenario, tariffs of 60%

Prior month 0.4%Retail sales for September x.x% vs 0.4% est.Ex Auto 0.9% vs 0.5% est. Prior month revised -0.8% from -0.7%Advanced retail sales estimate for October 0.7% Details: Retail sales increased 0.4% to $66.9 billion in September, with gains in six of nine subsectors, led by food and beverage retailers.Core retail sales (excluding gasoline, fuel

There is arguably just one to take note of on the day, as highlighted in bold. That being for EUR/USD at the 1.0500 level. However, just be wary that this comes after the daily break below the figure level yesterday but not for the first time in a long while though. We also got a

Prior +0.3%; revised to +0.1%Retail sales +2.4% vs +3.4% y/y expectedPrior +3.9%; revised to +3.2%Retail sales (ex autos, fuel) -0.9% vs -0.4% m/m expectedPrior +0.3%; revised to +0.1%Retail sales (ex autos, fuel) +2.0% vs +3.3% y/y expectedPrior +4.0%; revised to +3.2% UK retail sales slumped by more than expected last month, with a negative revision

Bowman speaking very late, but not, it appear, on monetary policy:2315 GMT / 1815 US Eastern time Federal Reserve Board Governor Michelle Bowman speaks on artificial intelligence before the 27th Annual Symposium on Building the Financial System of the 21st Century Bowman is not as dovish as some of her FOMC colleagues, having dissented at

Eurostoxx +0.6%Germany DAX +0.6%France CAC 40 +0.5%UK FTSE +0.6%Spain IBEX +0.4%Italy FTSE MIB +0.6% Overall, it has been a more sluggish week for European stocks but they’re looking to salvage things at least in the last two days. Major indices are sitting higher, helped by bids into value and small caps stocks in the US

The People’s Bank of China set the onshore yuan (CNY) reference rate for the trading session ahead. USD/CNY is the onshore yuan. Its permitted to trade plus or minus 2% from this daily reference rate.CNH is the offshore yuan. USD /CNH has no restrictions on its trading range.A significantly stronger or weaker rate than expected

Novak had graduated from being Russia’s energy minister to deputy prime minister but he is still very much involved with OPEC+ matters. In the meeting today, he basically just reaffirmed the partnership between Russia and OPEC. Adding that: “Russia will continue to be a key player in the oil market, maintaining its status as a

German DAX futures +0.2%French CAC 40 futures +0.1%UK FTSE futures +0.4% This follows the more positive glow yesterday, with US stocks also carried by value and small caps. Tech shares are the ones seen more sluggish, failing to convince after Nvidia’s earnings on Wednesday. S&P 500 futures are also seen flat now with Nasdaq futures

This continues the technical predicament from last week: EUR/USD feels the inevitable pull towards 1.0500 next The drop yesterday was a notable one as we finally see EUR/USD crack below the 1.0500 mark. It has been a key technical support level to the downside, stretching all the way back to last year. In October 2023,

Capitalize, one of the leading proprietary trading firms, has announced their “One-Step Evaluation” program that allows easier access to trading opportunities than ever before. As part of this user-friendly process, traders can showcase their talent and get funding in just one single-stage evaluation, unlike their competitors’ lengthy and multilevel examination processes. By lowering or removing

Prior 49.2Manufacturing PMI 43.2 vs 44.5 expectedPrior 44.5Composite PMI 44.8 vs 48.3 expectedPrior 48.1 We all knew that the boost in August was largely a one-off due to the Olympics but since then, it’s been a stark decline for French business activity as a whole. The services sector is seen slumping hard in November with

The euro is sliding in European morning trade as poor PMI data from France and Germany is weighing on the mood in the single currency. The ECB has already highlighted their shift in focus towards the economy and the data today vindicates that. And if anything, it might just add to the case for them

Zircuit, the chain where innovation meets security, today announced its ZRC Token Launch on Monday, November 25th—a key step in building a thriving, decentralized ecosystem. ZRC serves as the foundation of Zircuit’s architecture, enabling participants to receive additional rewards, participate in network app fair launches, and drive its growth. As the ecosystem’s cornerstone, ZRC aligns

Equities have now taken a turn lower on the session with European indices seeing red for the most part now. The DAX is now down 0.5% and CAC 40 down 0.8% after the more positive start to the day here. Meanwhile, US futures have also dipped lower with S&P 500 futures down 0.4% on the

Money market pricing is now seeing roughly 35% odds of a 50 bps rate cut by the ECB for their December meeting. That is up from less than 20% before the French and German PMI data. Meanwhile, €STR futures are now implying a ~44% probability of a 50 bps rate cut. For some context, the

Fundamental Overview Overall, we’ve seen a rangebound price action in the US Dollar this week as the market awaits new catalysts to push into either direction. The market’s pricing remains mostly unchanged at three rate cuts by the end of 2025 for the Fed. Yesterday, we saw some strong bids in the greenback late in

The price of bitcoin is stretching to a new high of $98,508 – less than $1500 from the “BITCOIN 100K” hats and t-shirts from coming out . The price moved above $90,000 for the first time back on November 12 (10 days ago). That sounds amazing, but it only took two days for the price

Fundamental Overview Overall, we’ve seen a rangebound price action in the US Dollar this week as the market’s pricing remained largely unchanged at three rate cuts by the end of 2025 for the Fed. This morning, we saw some strong bids in the greenback due to the weak Eurozone PMIs as the flows there spilled

Flash PMI from Japan – manufacturing November 2024 Jibun Bank / S&P Global In summary from the report: Contraction Continues: Japanese private sector activity contracted for the second month in November, though the decline was less pronounced than in October (49.6).Services vs. Manufacturing: Service providers saw slight activity growth, while manufacturing output fell sharply, marking

more to come This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

The dollar held a bit more of a mixed mood since trading yesterday with EUR/USD falling to its lowest levels since October 2023, breaking below 1.0500, but USD/JPY eased further as it dipped back under the 155.00 mark. It is making for a trickier end to the week with broader markets also rallying for the

A Reuters poll is showing: RBNZ is to cut cash rate to 4.25% on November 27. The current rate is at 4.75%. 27 of 30 economists look for the 50 basis point cut. In 2025 the median forecast is for the central bank to cut rates by total of 100 basis points The NZD/USD pair

The price of crude oil is settling up $1.35 or 1.96% and $70.10. The high price today reached $70.38 while the low price was at $68.86. Geopolitical Tensions: Russia and Ukraine war remains a geopolitical risk for oil traders. Russia allegedly launched an intercontinental missile at Ukraine’s Dnipro following Ukraine’s first attack on Russian territory

Australia Judo Bank / S&P Global data. Mixed bag, up for manufacturing (6 month-high) and down for services (10 month-low). Overall negative though with all three in contraction (with the caveat that these are preliminary readings only). From the report, in brief: Lowest PMI Since January: November’s S&P Global Flash Australia PMI hit its lowest

A trade official in Singapore with the comments: Global economic uncertainties have increased, including over policies of the incoming U.S. administration.Singapore electronics cluster projected to continue to expand, supported by strong global semiconductor demand.Trade tariffs could renew inflationary pressures, which could disrupt the pace of monetary easing.Not ruling out that GDP growth could exceed 3.5%

The moves aren’t large, but just noting some USD strength coming in. Earlier in the session NZD/USD dropped but AUD remained little changed on the back of AUD/NZD buying. Not any more. AUD/USD is making session lows now below 0.6490. There is no fresh news. USD/JPY has made back all its earlier losses, around 154.55

The supposed correction/pullback in gold sure didn’t last long. Dip buyers look to have managed to pass their first test with flying colours. Last week, gold was still in danger as it ran down to test its 100-day moving average (red line). But that proved to be where buyers draw the line, with the precious

Prior -0.1% Upon the revision, the German economy is seen just growing marginally in Q3. That was still better than the first estimations of a possible technical recession. But the storm clouds are definitely brewing going into next year, not least with Trump tariffs looming large just over the horizon. This article was written by

The Reserve Bank of New Zealand embarked on its rate cutting cycle in August: August: The RBNZ reduced the Official Cash Rate (OCR) by 25 basis points, bringing it down to 5.25%. This marked the first rate cut since March 2020, signaling a shift from the previous tightening stance. October 2024: In response to a

People’s Bank of China official says: We will prevent the formation of one-sided expectations on the yuanWill keep the yuan basically stable at a reasonable and balanced level Yuan dropping against the surging US dollar: This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

Citadel founder Griffin spoke in an interview with Bloomberg Television at the Economic Club of New York: In brief: have to put the fiscal house in order, warns on growth of national debtUS doesn’t have room for tax cuts, “There’s a real question about where do we need to raise taxes to start to put

Updating USD/JPY after the inflation data: Japan October headline CPI +2.3% (expected +2.2%, prior 2.5%) All three measures were above the bojj2% target, which keeps a December rate hike from the Bank on the simmer. Also yen supportive was: Japan PM Ishiba says stimulus package will be around 39 trln yen This article was written

Prepare Portfolios for Lower Rates, AI Boom, and Select Opportunities UBS is advising investors to align their strategies with expectations of falling interest rates, emerging investment opportunities in AI, and promising sectors such as real estate and resources. Rate Cuts on the Horizon UBS predicts major central banks will lower interest rates as inflation normalizes

Another packed agenda of European Central Bank speakers today. Times below are in GMT/US Eastern time format. Lagarde, Nagel and Schnabel the big hitters out of this lot. 0800/0300 Speech by ECB President Christine Lagarde, Bundesbank Chief Joachim Nagel and French Central Bank Governor Francois Villeroy de Galhau at the Frankfurt European Banking Congress0830/0330 Keynote

Survey on what to expect from the Bank of Japan conducted by Reuters In summary: Rate Hike Expected in December: 56% of economists expect the Bank of Japan (BOJ) to raise interest rates at its December meeting, driven by yen depreciation and improving economic conditions. Rate Projections: 90% of economists predict the BOJ will raise

People’s Bank of China USD/CNY reference rate is due around 0115 GMT. The People’s Bank of China (PBOC), China’s central bank, is responsible for setting the daily midpoint of the yuan (also known as renminbi or RMB). The PBOC follows a managed floating exchange rate system that allows the value of the yuan to fluctuate

Republican Senator Cynthia Lummis of Wyoming spoke with CNBC: “The proposal that I have and that President Trump has discussed [is] about a strategic bitcoin reserve” “This is the gold standard digital asset, and a strategic bitcoin reserve is the way to embed it””We have reserves at our 12 Federal Reserve banks, including gold certificates

Westpac revised their first cut forecast to May from February: Westpac revise its RBA forecast – see later but faster interest rate cuts Of Australia’s four biggest banks, National Australia Bank (NAB) are also tipping May. CBA and ANZ are both cautiously tipping a February rate cut from the Reserve Bank of Australia. The RBA

The US Securities and Exchange Commission announced on Thursday that its Chair, Gary Gensler, will step down from the Commission effective at 12:00 pm on January 20, 2025. More here. Gensler’s views on cryptocurrency regulation differ sharply from Trump’s. Trump was always going to fire him. Gensler with the : This article was written by

US stocks close higher on the dayReuters poll: RBNZ to cut cash rate to 4.25% on November 27Crude oil settles at $70.10Is today the day for Bitcoin 100K? Just $1500 away nowMore from Goolsbee: Feels like we are heading to 2% inflationMatt Gaetz withdraws name for Attorney General nominationFed’s Goolsbee: It may make sense to

Good morning, afternoon and evening all. Any charts, technical analysis, trade ideas, thoughts, views, ForexLive traders would like to share and discuss with fellow ForexLive traders, please do so: This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

The Bank of Japan next meet on December 18-19. Today’s CPI data from Japan is the final national reading ahead of that meeting. Bank of Japan Governor Ueda spoke yesterday, he didn’t give too much away on the ‘hike or no hike’ question at that meetings: BOJ governor Ueda: We don’t make comments on short-term

The USD/JPY pair moved lower during the morning U.S. session but found support at the rising 100-bar moving average on the 4-hour chart (see lower blue line on the chart above), where sellers turned into buyers, driving the price higher. Current Movement: The price is now testing the falling 100-hour moving average at 154.73.The 200-hour

Feel like we’re headed to 2% inflation.Neutral is a long way below where rates are now Fed relies on economic data that is forward-looking like inflation expectations, but will not speculate on effect of policies that are predicted but not in place Goolsbee is a dove. This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

Reuters with the info. Chinese government advisers recommend a 2025 economic growth target of around 5%, despite challenges from U.S. tariff hikes and slowing global demand. Some advisers suggest lower targets of “above 4%” or a 4.5%-5% range.Maintaining a lofty target aligns with President Xi Jinping’s vision of doubling China’s economy by 2035. Advisers advocate

BOE Mann (hawk) says: BOE should hold rates longer to evaluate processesCan make larger changes when justified by evidenceWaiting for changing underlying inflation dynamics.I’m still saying a tremendous amount of persistence.100 basis points of cuts to aggressive for me This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

It make sense for the Fed to slow the pace of interest rate cuts as central bank gets close to where rates will settleOver the next year, it feels like rates will end up a fair bit lower than where they are todayInflation is on its way down to 2%. Labor market is close to

Good morning, afternoon and evening all. Any charts, technical analysis, trade ideas, thoughts, views, ForexLive traders would like to share and discuss with fellow ForexLive traders, please do so: This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

Major European indices are closing higher on the day. The gains are led by the German DAX which rose by 0.75% and snapped a four day losing streak. A snapshot of the closing levels shows: German DAX, +142.67 points or 0.75% at 19147.46France’s CAC, +14.87 points or 0.21% at 7213.33.UK’s FTSE 100 +64.20 point toward

The NZDUSD fell sharply last week and in the process fell below a key support area between 0.5848 and 0.5859. That break failed and the price except back higher. In trading on Monday, the price fell back below that swing area for the second time, and for the second time the break failed. This time,

Fundamental Overview The US Dollar continues to consolidate despite the higher-than-expected inflation figures and a less dovish Powell last week. The market’s pricing remained largely unchanged at three rate cuts by the end of 2025. This is generally a signal that the market is fine with the current pricing, and we would need stronger reasons

The EURUSD is breaking lower, and in the process has moved to a new 2024 low. The old low from last week at 1.04956 has been broken and now is close risk for short-term traders looking for more downside momentum. Stay below is more bearish. The low price has reached 1.0474 so far. The next

Following its global unveiling on the main stage of Binance’s Blockchain Week conference in Dubai, AI platform bitGPT is experiencing sizable growth across every vertical of the project, from active partnership conversations to the number of users currently testing its technology. bitGPT’s X and Telegram communities grew in size by more than 1,000% in the

🌟 Technology Sector: Nvidia’s Rise Steals the Spotlight The semiconductor sector is experiencing a robust recovery, led by a significant surge in Nvidia (NVDA), which is up 3.36%. This upward trend highlights renewed investor confidence in the tech industry, potentially driven by positive earnings or innovation news. Other semiconductor players, including AMD (+1.10%) and MU

The USDCAD is moving lower and in the process has broken below a cluster of technical levels including: Upward sloping trendline on the hourly char at 1.3958.100 bar moving average on the 4-hour chart at 1.39506The low of a swing area down to 1.3945. The downside targets come in at 1.3925, a swing area at

The Wall Street Journal (gated) with the report. Probably most interesting, for China, are moves to diversify supply chains away from the country: American businesses are dusting off a playbook they used during Trump’s first term: stocking up on imported goods before tariffs are enactedalso considering how to cope with the levies if and when

Trade tariffs likely to provoke a responseAnd a 25 bps rate cut in December is the right responseWe should cut every meeting until rates reach 2%The neutral rate on average is about 2%It’s too soon to say if ECB needs to go below neutral This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

Arcana Network is thrilled to announce the launch of the Arcana Wallet Beta, now available on the Chrome Store, setting a new standard in blockchain accessibility and user experience through its pioneering Chain Abstraction Protocol. Built as the first Externally Owned Account (EOA) wallet to leverage Chain Abstraction, Arcana Wallet enables a frictionless, multi-chain experience

The GMT DAO, an independent community organization of GMT holders, is excited to announce the launch of the GMT Burn Initiative—an event designed to place the future of GMT firmly in the hands of its community. Through this initiative, GMT holders will vote on the decision to burn up to 600 million GMT, equivalent to

The major US stock indices opened higher, but are now trading lower as the sellers entered from the bell. The NASDAQ index opened higher by about 90 points but has since found sellers and trades down on the day. HMMMM Shares of Nvidia and Snowflake are trading higher after announcing earnings after the close. Nvidia

Nvidia, the world’s largest publicly traded company by market capitalisation, reported its Q3 earnings after the market close on Wednesday. The company posted impressive growth, surpassing expectations for both sales and earnings while also offering better-than-expected guidance for the current quarter. However, some investors weren’t particularly happy with the report, leading to a dip in

ECBs Holzmann is speaking and says: Warnings of undershooting 2% are not warrantedPolicy need to say restrictive amid price risks.In December, a cut is most likely outcome but is not certain. There have been recent comments suggesting fears that inflation might be lower than expectations and move below the 2% target. Holzmann fights back. The

OPEC+ is scheduled to meet on December 1. Reuters (out overnight) cite unnamed sources for info: It may push back output increases when it meets on Dec. 1 due to weak global oil demandaccording to three OPEC+ sources familiar with the discussionsMinisters last shelved the increase for a month when they met virtually on Nov.

There are a couple to take note of on the day, as highlighted in bold. The first ones are for EUR/USD at the 1.0500 and 1.0515 levels. And alongside key technical resistance on the weekly chart at the 1.0500 mark itself, that should provide a floor for price action in the session ahead. Keep in

If inflation stays above target, have to be careful when going about reducing ratesBut if unemployment accelerates, it makes the case to be more forward-leaningUpcoming decisions will depend on the dataThe economy right now is “quite prosperous”Recent policy moves can be described as a “recalibration”Questions on the pace of further reductions would be more relevant

There is a shift out of the different major indices today. The Dow industrial average and the Russell 2000 are both trading higher. The rotor S&P and NASDAQ index are trading lower with the NASDAQ index now down over -1.0% leading the way to the downside. A snapshot of the market currently shows: Dow industrial

US initial jobless claims came in stronger than expectations, but continuing claims were higher. The Philadelphia Fed business index fell more than expected of -5.5 versus 8.0 estimate. Yields in the US have moved modestly lower with the two year now down -0.8 basis points and the tenure down -1.6 basis points. In the premarket

Prior week 217K (revised to 219K)Initial jobless claims 213K vs 220K estimate4-week moving average initial jobless claims 217K vs 221K priorContinuing Claims 1.908M vs 1.873M estimatePrior week of continuing claims 1.873M (revised to 1.872M)4-week moving average of continueing claims 1.879M vs 1.874M prior The largest increases in initial claims for the week ending November 9

Fundamental Overview Crude oil remains confined in a range between the 72.00 resistance and the 67.00 support as the market continues to weigh the future scenarios. On one hand, we have the Trump’s victory which might be seen as bearish due to increased supply and for fear of the tariffs and a slowdown in global

Prior 10.3Fed Business index -5.5 vs 8.0 estimate6 month index 56.6 versus 36.7 last monthCapital expenditures 24.9 versus 23.5 last monthemployment 8.6 versus -2.2 last month.Prices paid 26.6 versus 29.7 last month.New orders 8.9 versus 14.2 last month This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

Prior month -0.3% revised from -0.5%Leading index -0.4% vs -0.3% estimate. One day the leading index will foreshadow a recession or negative growth. This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

Nvidia will announce its earnings after the close today. Sharea are lower today with the price trading down about -$3.00 or -2.10%. at $144.00. The all-time high closing level is at $148.88. What are the expectations? Earnings Expectations Adjusted quarterly earnings: $0.74 per share versus $0.40 last year (85% YoY increase) Revenue: $33.2 billion versus

Prior month Year on year -1.0%PPI MoM 1.2% versus -0.8% last month. The gain comes after 2-months of declines. The rise was the largest since April 2024. PPI YoY 1.1% versus -1.0% last monthRaw material price MoM was 3.8% versus -3.2% last monthRaw material prices YoY -2.8% versus -8.8% last month Details for IPPI: The

Prior month 3.84M annualized rate revised to 3.83MExisting home sales percentage change +3.4% versus -1.3% last month (revisor -1.0%Up 2.9% from October last year30 year mortgage 7.05% which is up from 6% at September lowsInventories 4.2 months which is still low. That is down from 4.3% last month, but up from 3.6 months a year

S&P 500 futures are now up 0.2% while Nasdaq futures have pared earlier losses to be up 0.1%. Meanwhile, Dow futures are seen up 0.3% on the day currently. In Asia and large periods of European morning trade, investors remained cautious after Nvidia’s earnings release overnight. The revenue figures were a beat but other details

IC Markets Global is proud to announce the renewal of its partnership with World Table Tennis (WTT), reaffirming its role as the Official CFD Trading Partner for the 2024-2025 season. This collaboration underscores shared values of precision, speed, and excellence, further strengthening the bond between one of the world’s largest CFD brokers and the global

Fundamental Overview The US Dollar continues to consolidate despite the higher-than-expected inflation figures and a less dovish Powell last week. The market’s pricing remained largely unchanged at three rate cuts by the end of 2025. This is generally a signal that the market is fine with the current pricing, and we would need stronger reasons

German DAX futures +0.5%UK FTSE futures +0.4% This comes after the Dow posted gains yesterday while tech shares were more cautious. And the latter are still keeping that way after Nvidia’s earnings release after the close overnight. The chip giant saw record high revenue amid strong AI demand but their guidance underwhelmed expectations. And that’s

AIntivirus, a global initiative aimed at combating systemic corruption and promoting transparency, launches with a message rooted in the enduring legacy of John McAfee. The project, inspired by McAfee’s outspoken stance on accountability and digital security, seeks to create a more equitable and secure digital environment. A Legacy Rekindled John McAfee, a polarizing figure renowned

Federal Reserve speakers Thursday include Hammack, Goolsbee, BarrICYMI – OPEC+ could further extend voluntary cuts at its December meetingChinese government advisers call for steady 5% 2025 economic growth goal, strongr stimulusThere are at least 10 European Central Bank officials speaking on ThursdayU.S. Department of Justice asks judge to force Google to sell off Chrome internet

As the North American session begins, the dollar is mixed. The USDJPY is lower (lower USD) by about 0.60% and is the biggest mover on the day. The EURUSD is also lower (higher USD) after a try higher stalled ahead of 100-hour MA resistance target. The GBPUSD is also lower (higher USD). The DXY dollar

DegenLayer, a newly launched memecoin focused blockchain & trading terminal app suite, has announced its testnet release, marking a key step toward its upcoming mainnet launch. The platform aims to facilitate zero setup memecoin trading and creation, leveraging the $20 billion liquidity within the Optimism Superchain ecosystem. The project’s developers project daily revenues of $1

Below you’ll find who is on the schedule. Times are GMT/US Eastern time format. Apart from these 10 be wary of a few popping up unannounced in various media interviews and what have you. 0525/0025 Bank of France Governor Francois Villeroy de Galhau speaks at Paris Europlus Financial Forum 2024 in Tokyo0830/0330 Welcome remarks by

Headlines: USD/JPY sticks with the push and pull mood on the weekUS futures pare losses ahead of the open laterGold Technical Analysis – New highs as rate cuts repricing pausesFed’s Barkin says does not want to prejudge December meetingFed’s Williams: The disinflationary process will continueECB’s Stournaras vouches for a 25 bps rate cut in DecemberECB’s

Adj. EPS 0.81 (expected 0.75) Revenue 35.08bn (exp 33.12bn) Adj. gross margin 75% (expected 75%) Adj. operating expenses 3.05bln (expected 2.99bn) Adj. operating income 23.28bn (expected 21.9bn) Data centre revenue $30.8bn vs (expected $29bn) Q4 Revenue Guidance $37.5bn (expected $37bn) Q4 adj gross margin 73 to 74% (expected 73.5%) /*/*- —- For previous results, expectations

Eurostoxx flatGermany DAX +0.2%France CAC 40 -0.1%UK FTSE +0.3%Spain IBEX +0.2%Italy FTSE MIB -0.2% The overall market mood is rather tentative now with US futures also sitting marginally lower. S&P 500 futures are down 0.2% with Nasdaq futures down 0.4% but that owes more to tech sentiment feeling more sluggish after Nvidia’s earnings release. The

This is but another sign that perhaps things are starting to change in Japan with the BOJ looking to hold interest rates at a higher level amid their recent policy shift. Nippon Life Insurance is now reportedly set to raise the expected interest rates for its annuities and whole life insurance for the first time

People’s Bank of China USD/CNY reference rate is due around 0115 GMT. The People’s Bank of China (PBOC), China’s central bank, is responsible for setting the daily midpoint of the yuan (also known as renminbi or RMB). The PBOC follows a managed floating exchange rate system that allows the value of the yuan to fluctuate

U.S. authorities allege Chairman Gautam Adani and seven others paid $265 million in bribes to Indian government officials. Adani Group has not commented on the allegations as yet. The price of Adani dollar bonds fell in early Asia trade. Reuters reports Adani Ports and Special Economic Zone: Bonds maturing in August 2027 fell over five

The missile was reportedly fired from Astrakhan and targeted critical infrastructure in the central Ukrainian city of Dnipro. The city was also hit by other strikes involving several cruise missiles and a medium range ballistic missile. Going back to the ICBM, it would be the first that such a long range weapon has been used

Fed’s Bowman adds: It’s concerning we are recalibrating policy without reaching inflation goalsFed needs to be flexibleEven when we bring inflation down, prices are still more expensive.We need to be patient and cautious about what immigration policy approach may actually be.US needs policies that will facilitate people to be able to work across the country.

Approach to rate cuts must be gradualBut if December projections confirm baseline scenario, there will be room to cut rates This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

The USDJPY, GBPUSD and the USDCHF have each seen up and down action today. For the USDJPY and GBPUSD, the price action traded above and below the 100 hour MA. Both also used that MA as either support (for the USDJPY) or resistance (for the GBPUSD). That helps to increase the MAs importance going forward

Labour market is now in balance, not providing upward pressure on inflationWants to see inflation coming down to 2% and staying around that level amid solid labour marketDon’t see any signs of a recession in the dataIt is pretty clear that monetary policy is restrictive todayThat is why it is “very appropriate” to cut rates

The price action in the pair has been rather up and down on the week, with levels now returning back to the weekly pivot around 154.21. Earlier in the day, USD/JPY was trading around 155.15 in the handover from Asia to Europe. So, we’re roughly 100 pips down from there currently. There’s no real catalyst