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The Danger of Over-Diversifying — Why Too Many Stocks Can Hurt Your Returns How owning too much can dilute your gains and distract you from your best ideas. “Diversification is protection against ignorance. But if you know what you’re doing, it’s unnecessary.” — Warren Buffett Why Diversification Isn’t Always the Answer When you’re new to […]

Crude oil futures are settling at $71.48. That’s up $2.12 or 3.05%. The high price reached $71.83. The low price extended to $68.81. The move to the upside took the price above its 100-day moving average at $70.66, and also its 38.2% retracement of the move down from the 2025 high (on January 15 to

UK BRC Shop Price Index for March 2024: -0.4% y/y expected –0.4% and prior –0.7% British Retail Consortium data. via Reuters: BRC Chief Executive Helen Dickinson said the introduction on April 6 of higher social security contributions for employers – which were announced in finance minister Rachel Reeves’ first budget in October – would combine

Have to wait and see what the data says Not just inflation but also other developments like labour market and US tariffs We’re not endorsing the market path on future rate cuts Our job is to be a little more cautious We’re in a position where we can watch and wait to see what happens

Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent on Fox News confirms the time for Trump’s April 2 reciprocal tariff announcement – 3pm US Eastern time. 1900 GMT This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

Prior was 47.4 Key findings: Sharper decrease in output volumes Sustained reduction in headcounts amid signs of excess capacity Charges up after six months of discounting and despite softer cost pressures Comment: Commenting on the PMI data, Jonas Feldhusen, Junior Economist at Hamburg Commercial Bank, said: “Italy’s manufacturing sector remains in the grip of crisis,

A Beginner’s Guide to Investing in Bonds — What They Are, How They Work, and Why They Matter Everything young investors need to know about bonds, why they’re used, and how they fit into your investing strategy. “Bonds may not be flashy, but they’re the bedrock of long-term, balanced investing.” What Are Bonds in Investing?

Fox with the info, citing two administration sources familiar with the tariff discussions: Trump is still deciding which plan he will take for reciprocal tariffs. Sources say he has been presented with “multiple” tariff plans. Say also that Trump will likely not make the decision on which plan he takes until right before April 2nd,

Prior 4.10% Underlying inflation is moderating Cautious about the outlook Need to be confident that inflation progress will continue Uncertainty about the outlook abroad also remains significant Geopolitical uncertainties are also pronounced Returning inflation sustainably to target remains the highest priority Monetary policy remains restrictive The continued decline in underlying inflation is welcome, but there

Prior 49.7 A decline in new orders weighed on Spain’s manufacturing sector last month, resulting in a marginal contraction. Output showed an increase though and employment levels also improved. So, there are some positive takeaways. HCOB notes that: “The HCOB PMI slightly deteriorated in March due to decreasing order volumes and the reduction of inventory

Rising inflation expectations are a concern. Inflation expectations remain anchored. Slack is opening in the UK labour market. Disinflation continues to be underway. Wage growth is above what our models can explain. Worried supply is weaker than expected. I am more worried about supply than demand. It’s possible people are now more sensitive to inflation.

It’s going to take a while before we get clarity on tariff impact. Suppliers are emboldened, say they will have to pass on higher prices. Consumers are frustrated, exhausted, and tired of paying high prices Not convinced higher prices will be passed on, or that there won’t be inflation. To cut rates requires confidence on

Gold Futures Analysis – tradeCompass Levels for Today Gold futures are currently trading at $3,160.2, hovering right around today’s Point of Control (POC) — a key price zone where the most trading volume has occurred so far. This area often acts as a pivot and a battle zone between buyers and sellers. Gold Futures Trade

Pres. Trump on Truth Social: Yemens;s Iran backed Houthis have been decimated by strikes over the past two weeks US attacks will continue until Houthis are no longer threat to freedom of navigation This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

The Reserve Bank of Australia is expected to leave its cash rate on hold today: CBA expects RBA on hold this week, with a more dovish tone Poll shows expectations are for the Reserve Bank of Australia to stay on hold Westpac sees April RBA meeting as ‘dead rubber’, still eyes May rate cut Goldman

Prior was 46.9 Key Findings: Manufacturing PMI falls to 17-month low Business optimism at weakest level since November 2022 Steeper drops in output, new orders and new export business Comment: Rob Dobson, Director at S&P Global Market Intelligence said: “March proved to be another tough month for UK manufacturers. Output contracted at the quickest pace

U.S. Senator Tommy Tuberville plans to introduce legislation that would permit Americans to invest their retirement funds in Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies. proposed bill aims to expand investment options for retirement savings, reflecting growing interest in digital assets Info via Binance This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

The US major indices close mixed but are down for the month of March/down for the year Fed’s Barkin: Its going to take a while before we get clarity on tariff impact. Fed’s Williams: Its early days in figuring out impact of tariffs Crude oil settles at $71.48 Trump: Yeman’s Iran backed Houthis have been

Trump is due to announce his next tariff hit on April 2. He is still acting all coy: maybe tomorrow night, Wednesday you will see tariff detail we are going to be nice very comparison to other countries in some cases maybe substantially lower Earlier: Reports that Trump won’t decide on tariffs until the morning

Prior 47.6 It’s a modest improvement amid better fortunes in France and Germany especially. Of note, the manufacturing output index rose to 50.5 – crossing the threshold for growth. The reading is a 34-month high, with this being the first monthly rise in output in two years. That said, it is just a marginal one

In the European session, the focus will be on the Eurozone CPI report. We will also get the final PMI readings but they shouldn’t change much for the market pricing unless we get big revisions. In the American session, the attention will switch to the US ISM Manufacturing PMI and the US Job Openings data.

Eurostoxx +0.9% Germany DAX +1.0% France CAC 40 +0.8% UK FTSE +1.0% Spain IBEX +0.7% Italy FTSE MIB +0.9% This follows the late resurgence in US indices yesterday, which saw the Dow close up by 1% higher and S&P 500 up by 0.5%. For now, US futures are also creeping higher with S&P 500 futures

How to Build a Portfolio That Lasts — The Power of Focus and Balance Creating a portfolio you can trust — one that grows, weathers storms, and doesn’t keep you up at night. “The goal isn’t to own everything — it’s to own enough of the right things.” Why Portfolio Construction Matters A portfolio isn’t

Prior 45.8 It’s a marked improvement but the French industry is still largely struggling since last year. There were still reductions in both output and new orders and until that changes, it will be tough to see things turn around meaningfully. HCOB notes that: “France’s industry is failing to break out of recession. Despite a

How to Build Investing Discipline Over Time — Turning Habits into Wealth Why consistency beats brilliance in investing, and how small, repeatable actions build serious wealth. “Discipline isn’t about motivation. It’s about building habits that make good investing decisions automatic.” Why Investing Discipline Matters More Than Talent You don’t need to be a genius to

Bank of Japan Q1 2025 Tankan report March big manufacturers index +12 (Reuters poll: 12) June big manufacturers index seen at +12 (Reuters poll: 9) March big non-manufacturers index +35 (Reuters poll: 33) June big non-manufacturers index seen at +28 (Reuters poll: 29) March small manufacturers index +2 (Reuters poll: -1) June small manufacturers index

Unemployment Rate 2.4% 2.4% expected, prior 2.5% Job-to-applicant ratio 1.24 expected 1.26, prior 1.26 Earlier posts on Japan today: ICYMI – Japan’s GPIF will maintain its current allocation ICYMI – BOJ will reduce purchases of 10–25-year JGBs for the first time This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

An official from the Bank of Japan commenting on the Tanakn report: major producers sentiment worsened due to increased expenses, declining foreign demand, and consequences of each country’s trade policy broad range of non-manufacturers saw business conditions worsen 3 months ahead due largely to concerns over rising costs Report is here: BoJ Q1 2025 Tankan

Politico reports that Republican senators Collins and Tillis are poised to follow Rand Paul in joining Democrates in a vote to block blanket tariffs on Canada. Sen. Susan Collins (R-Maine) said Monday that she plans to back the resolution led by Sen. Tim Kaine (D-Va.) that would terminate the national emergency Trump declared last month,

Trump is still going on: settled on tariff plan Earlier: Trump says ‘going to be nice’ on tariffs Also comments on: Russia Ukraine North Korea TokTok Le Pen This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

Why Beginner Real Estate Investors Should Usually Start in Their Own Backyard How knowing your local market gives you an edge — and why proximity often beats complexity in real estate investing. “In real estate investing, what you know and can see often matters more than what looks good on paper.” Rich Snippet Candidate: For

What Makes a Stock Worth Holding for the Long Run How to recognize businesses you can trust to compound wealth — and why most stocks aren’t built that way. “Time is the friend of the wonderful business, the enemy of the mediocre.” — Warren Buffett Why Long-Term Stocks Are Rare — But Powerful Not every

There is a lot of uncertainty on the global outlook at the moment Inflation pressures remain, so need to be careful not to get ahead of ourselves Did not explicitly discuss a rate cut today Did talk a little about downside risks, including those globally It was a consensus decision to keep the cash rate

A federal judge in California has agreed to delay the Trump administration’s move to terminate the Temporary Protected Status (TPS) of 350,000 Venezuelan migrants in the U.S. migrants were slated to lose their work permits and deportation protections next week judge said the action appeared to be “predicated on negative stereotypes” about Venezuelans and “motivated

Australian retail sales in February +0.2% m/m expected +0.3%, prior +0.3% and for the y/y up 3.6% Retail sales rise in food categories – food and eating out. Demand for household goods falling. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

Will compile measures to push up Japan’s minimum wage by May We need to achieve wage gains that exceed pace of inflation, which is imminent task and key growth strategy for Japan We will deploy all available means to broaden wage hikes across country Ishiba wants the wage gains to support the Bank of Japan

Good morning, afternoon and evening all. Any charts, technical analysis, trade ideas, thoughts, views, ForexLive traders would like to share and discuss with fellow ForexLive traders, please do so: This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

Trump signed an executive order establishing the United States investment accelerator An office within the Department of Commerce will aim to facilitate and accelerate investments above USD 1bln in the US This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

Australia S&P Global PMI Manufacturing Marcah 2025, final: 52.1 preliminary was 52.6 prior was 50.4 This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

Fed’s Williams on Yahoo! News says: it’s early days in figuring out impact of tariffs There is still a lot of uncertainty around tariffs, details matter Need to watch data to measure impact of tariffs Full impact of tariffs can play out over long horizon. Tariffs will impact prices Consumers goods should see quick pass

Headlines via Reuters – Reuters citing a letter it has seen: Iran complains to UN about ‘reckless, belligerent’ Trump remarks Iran says Trump remarks a flagrant violation of international law, core principles of UN Charter Iran says deeply regrettable, concerning that US ‘wields military power as its primary tool of coercion to advance political, geopolitical

The major US yields across the curve are trading at session highs. The shorter end is no modestly positive, while the longer end is still down but only modestly. The snapshot currently shows: 2-year yield 3.909%, unchanged 5-year yield 3.982%, +0.4 basis points. 10-year yield 4.249%, -0.6 basis points 30-year yield 4.619%, -1.2 basis points.

US major indices recovered and traded near session highs. The S&P index is now trading in positive territory after trading down as much as 92 points at session lows. The Dow industrial average is trading up 263 points or 0.63% after trading down as much as 435 points. The NASDAQ index is still negative by

German inflation continues to be a bit of a sticking point for the ECB since last year. While headline annual inflation continues to keep closer to 2%, it is still taking some time for core prices to converge towards the target. In February, the latter was seen at 2.7%. That still showed some easing from

The day has been known, but with the so-called “Liberatation Day” ahead on April 2 where Pres. Trump’s administration will “hit essentially all countries with tariffs” in response to their tariffs, the global markets are bracing for slower growth and lower earnings as a result. The futures are implying a lower opening across the board.

Prior +1.1% In annual terms, import prices were seen up 3.6% in February and that’s the highest year-on-year increase since January 2023. Looking at the monthly breakdown, there were increases in prices for consumer goods (+0.3%) and intermediate goods (+0.5%). The prices for capital goods were unchanged compared to January. And excluding energy prices, import

The major US indices struggled with a slow start to the new trading week. A snapshot of the closing levels shows” German DAX, -1.33% France’s CAC -1.58% UK’s FTSE 100 -0.88% Spain’s Ibex -1.31% Italy’s FTSE MIB -1.77% This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

White House press secretary says the Pres. Trump is committed to the tariffs. When asked about tariff exemptions for farmers, the Press Secretary said There are no exemptions at this time Any country that has treated the US unfairly should expect to receive a tariff The goal is country based tariffs It matters how countries

Prior 66.2k Net consumer credit £1.4 billion vs £1.2 billion expected Prior £1.7 billion Individual net borrowing of mortgage debt fell in February by £0.9 billion, down to £3.3 billion. That follows a £0.8 billion increase in January. But the annual growth of net mortgage lending was little changed, seen at 1.9%. Besides that, the

Geopolitics: US sanctions six Chinese and Hong Kong officials over actions to road home comes autonomy In other geopoliiical new, the Jerusalem Post is saying that Egypt’s military buildup in the Sinai Peninsula is a potential violation of the peace agreement: This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

Technology and Semiconductor Sectors Struggle Today’s market heatmap presents a challenging landscape for the technology sector, with significant declines noted. Notably, Microsoft (MSFT) tumbles 2.76%, while Nvidia (NVDA) leads a steep dive in semiconductors, plummeting 4.93%. Investors appear cautious, perhaps due to emerging industry-specific concerns or broader market jitters. Consumer Cyclical and Defensive Sectors Show

Blomberg is reporting that ECB sources are saying that more members are ready to accept an April pause in rates. The EURUSD – which fell below it 100 hour MA and below the 1.0800 – is trading back higher. The price reached 1.08158. The 200 hour moving averages just above at 1.08182. This article was

PU Prime, a globally recognized online trading platform, has announced its partnership with the Argentine Football Association as an Official Regional Sponsor. The partnership, commencing on March 17, 2025, underscores PU Prime’s commitment to excellence and innovation, aligning with one of the most iconic institutions in world football. This collaboration reflects the shared values between

Tech shares are leading the declines with Nasdaq futures also marked down by 1.1% currently. In case you missed it: Trump weighs broader, higher tariffs. Across-the-board hike of up to 20% considered The 2 April deadline draws closer and Trump will surely want to make a show of it, having already labelled it as Liberation

The week will begin slowly on Monday, with no significant scheduled economic events for the FX market. On Tuesday, the highlight will be the RBA monetary policy announcement, along with the final manufacturing PMI for both the eurozone and the U.S. Additionally, the U.S. will release the JOLTS job openings report. On Wednesday, the U.S.

The DAX has been under strong selling pressure after Trump placed 25% tariffs on auto imports last week. The index is now down more than 6% from the all-time highs and it’s testing a key trendline. This is where we will likely see some dip-buyers stepping in with a defined risk below the trendline. The

Prior month -8.3 March manufacturing index -16.3 versus -8.3 last month. Lower Output index 6 versus -9.1 in February. Shipments 6.1 versus 5.6 last month New orders -0.1 versus -3.5 last month. Higher Employment -4.6 versus -0.7 last month. Lower Prices paid for raw materials 37.7 versus 35.0 last month. Higher Prices received 6.3 versus

Tesla China’s announcing a three year interest rate loan for their refreshed model why. They also offer five year interest free loans for model 3 Rearwheel Dr., long-range trim before April 30. The company is fighting a tumble in sales in China.In China, where Shenzhen-based BYDis the biggest-selling EV brand, Tesla’s sales have fallen 49%.

The AUDUSD chart is displaying a clear bearish trend, with the pair falling away from the 100/200 bar MA on the 4-hour chart at 0.6388. This indicates a potential continuation of the downtrend, and traders should be aware of the key levels that may influence price action. The price is now below the trend line

Be aware: Pres. Trump will be signing Executive Orders at the top of the hour. The details of the executive orders are unsure but there will be some press there. With tariffs to go into effect on April, if there is Q&A it will be on that. Markets will be focused on any hints of

FBS, a leading global broker, has released a new analysis examining the impact of the US government’s decision to establish a Strategic Bitcoin Reserve. This move, announced by President Donald Trump in March 2025, officially recognizes Bitcoin as a reserve asset and signals a shift in financial strategy. The FBS analysis explores market reactions, historical

That sees USD/JPY undo its advance from last week as it now falls to below 149.00, down 0.7% on the day. This comes as bonds are keeping bid amid the more defensive risk mood in markets. 10-year Treasury yields are down nearly 7 bps to 4.184%. That is nearly its lowest levels in three weeks.

USDCHF remains caught in a consolidative range after failing to sustain a downside break below the key swing area near 0.8794–0.8800. The pair dipped beneath this support in the Asian Pacific session after a number of tests in the area last week. However, the break quickly rebounded, highlighting the level’s importance as a defensive line

The USDJPY is trading back higher and in the process is retesting its 200 bar moving average on the 4- hour chart at 149.772. The price is finding some selling interest against that level. The price is also testing the underside of a broken channel trendline near the area. It would take a move back

New Zealand ANZ Business survey. Confidence 57.5% prior 58.4% Activity 48.6% prior 45.1% more to come This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

Must carefully monitor all factors that could hinder return to 2% target Weak euro area economy and geopolitical tensions contributing to containing inflation But increased uncertainty, especially contradictory US policy announcements, calls for caution on rates As you would expect, they’re still not giving anything away and not pre-committing to anything before Trump’s tariffs are

Trump is planning to travel to Saudi Arabia in mid-May. This’ll be his first foreign trip since returning to the White House. Info via Axios citing two US officials and a source with knowledge. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

Some viral numbers did the rounds this week with data showing a forward year-over-year drop in Canadian air travel to the USA between 75% and 71% for April-September. It was even discussed on CNBC. To illustrate: In April, the forward numbers show 295K passengers compared to 1.2 million a year ago. Those are hard to

The EURUSD has dipped below its 100-hour moving average at 1.07944. Falling below that level tips the technical bias more to the downside. The next target area comes between 1.07609 and 1.07767. Below that and traders will start to look toward the 200 day moving average and 38.2% retracement near 1.0726 and 1.0730. Sellers are

The first quarter of 2025 has been defined by a rise in growth fears and inflation expectations leading to hightened stagflationary risks. The culprit is of course Trump’s tariffs policy. Bitcoin has been often cited as a hedge against inflation but the actual drivers of the cryptocurrency show a different perspective. Bitcoin is just another

Prior +1.6% HICP +2.1% vs +1.8% y/y expected Prior +1.7% Slight delay in the release by the source. Core annual inflation remains unchanged though at 1.7%, so the ECB can take some comfort from that despite a jump in the headline readings. This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

Tariffs are a big driving influence in the USDCAD. If there is a threat, the USDCAD tends to go higher. If the pressure is off, the price can wander lower. The so-called “Liberation Day” is on April 2 and that has the markets concerned and with it the USDCAD higher. Technically, the USDCAD is showing

China Japan and South Korea will reportedly jointly respond to the US tariffs: Japan and South Korea are seeking to import semi conductor raw materials from China. China is also interested in purchasing chip products from Japan and South Korea. China Japan and South Korea have consensus that they hope to keep the supply chain

Japan February retail sales +1.4% y/y expected +2.0%, prior +4.4% For the m/m, comes in at +0.5% expected -0.2%, prior +0.5% Regional stocks are heavy after Friday hugs slide on Wall Street and ongoing tariff threats from trump. Nikkei is off more than 3%. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

China March official Manufacturing PMI 50.5 expected 50.5 (I’ve also seen expected at 50.4) prior 50.4 Non-Manufacturing PMI 50.8 expected 50.5, prior 50.4 Composite PMI 51.4 prior 51.1 This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

As is usual for a Monday morning, market liquidity is very thin until it improves as more Asian centres come online … prices are liable to swing around, so take care out there. Indicative rates, a little change from late Friday: EUR/USD 1.0821 USD/JPY 149.70 GBP/USD 1.2933 USD/CHF 0.8803 USD/CAD 1.4304 AUD/USD 0.6292 NZD/USD 0.5719

Goldman Sachs has raised its estimate for the likelihood of a U.S. recession in the next 12 months to 35%, up from 20%. The company – not surprisingly – cites risks from escalating trade tensions and weakening consumer and business confidence. They also add that “statements from White House officials indicating greater willingness to tolerate

Kremlin on Trump saying he was ‘pissed off’ with Putin: we continue to work on building bilateral relations and on Ukraine settlement ideas. Kremlin says president Putin remains open to contacts with Trump. A Putin-Trump conversation can be arrenged as needed. Some American companies have shown interest in rare earth projects in Russia, but this

The USD is mixed to start the US trading day. In the video above I take a look at the 3 major currency pairs to start the day and outline the key levels in play for each. Be aware. Be prepared. The US – all stock markets – are lower to start the day. Pres.

Trump rescinded permits and waivers that had allowed several Western energy firms to operate in Venezuela, further tightening pressure on President Nicolás Maduro’s regime. Affected companies include U.S.-based Global Oil Terminals—led by energy magnate Harry Sargeant III (a staunch Trump supporter) —as well as Spain’s Repsol and France’s Maurel et Prom, all of which must

It’s a big moment in French politics, so do keep an eye out for this. Le Pen is the far right party leader and is the frontrunner in opinion polls ahead of the next presidential vote. If she is made ineligible, then this would see the far right grasp on the political scene turn into

Prior +0.2%; revised to +0.7% That’s a strong beat on estimates with an upwards revision to January to boot. It points to a good start to the new year for German retail spending, after a more disappointing holiday period at the end of last year. Looking at the breakdown, food store sales were seen up

Eurostoxx -1.1% Germany DAX -1.0% France CAC 40 -1.1% UK FTSE -1.0% Spain IBEX -0.8% Italy FTSE MIB -1.4% This comes as US futures are also under heavy pressure, with S&P 500 futures down 0.8% currently. The prospect of Trump tariffs ahead of Liberation Day on 2 April is still the main source of worries

German DAX futures -1.0% UK FTSE futures -0.6% It’s looking rough out there with S&P 500 futures also marked down by 0.8% currently. The big question for investors is whether Trump tariffs will bring about a recession. And right now, fears are definitely running high ahead of the 2 April showdown. USD/JPY is also marked

On the 4 hour chart below, we can see that the AUDUSD pair just fell below a key support zone around the 0.6260 level which has been holding since March 10th. The sellers are likely to pile in with a defined risk above the broken zone to position for a drop into the March 4th

Good morning, afternoon and evening all. Any charts, technical analysis, trade ideas, thoughts, views, ForexLive traders would like to share and discuss with fellow ForexLive traders, please do so: This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

As we get into the new day, broader markets are fearing that Trump might not be taking a targeted approach on tariffs come 2 April. That follows from this latest report here. Liberation Day is set to be the most important event in markets this week as we will get an idea of what sort

The screenshot below shows what’s up for the session ahead. I included the notification for much of Europe and the UK switching to daylight saving on Sunday, ICYMI Justin’s heads up: Heads up: The clocks will go forward in Europe this weekend If you trade European and/or UK markets you may need to adjust your

The Japanese Yen rallied across the board last Friday as the final University of Michigan survey showed consumer sentiment slumping more than expected and the long term inflation expectations got revised even higher. That was the catalyst that reignited stagflationary fears and triggered renewed risk-off flows. The main driver of major FX pairs is yield

“Trump’s tariff regime will be more disruptive to global economy than markets are pricing” China says that it has discovered a major oilfield in the eastern South China Sea Reserve Bank of Australia should cut now – “Global Economic Outlook Goes Into a Tailspin” Nasdaq Futures Analysis by tradeCompass Gold to a record high above

The verdict is that Le Pen will be deemed ineligible to be elected to public office, though the duration is unknown. But if confirmed, I reckon it should be the five-year ban as per what the offense would carry. This means she will be ruled out from running in 2027. Just when you thought the

Trump said he’s “very angry’ with Russian President Vladimir Putin and would consider imposing additional tariffs on Russian oil if a ceasefire with Ukraine isn’t achieved, according to NBC News. NBC said they spoke with Trump in a phone interview. Trump is “very angry” about Putin’s suggestion to replace Ukraine’s leadership and sideline President Zelenskiy.

Japan’s Finance Minister Kato will communicate closely with US counterparts on FX have agreed with US that excessive moves on forex are undesirable The rapid drop in USD/JPY is a strong candidate for ‘excessive’, but you won’t see any actual intervention from Japan to stem the yen’s rise from such weak levels. These fairly gentle

Headlines: Gold thrives as stagflationary risks continue to increase The gold train marches on for now USD/JPY slides lower as risk aversion grips markets to start the week Traders increase easing expectations for all central banks amid the global growth fears France’s Le Pen found guilty in case over misuse of parliamentary funds France’s Le

Melbourne Institue inflation gauge, March 2025 +0.7% m/m, highest since December 2023 prior -0.2% 2.8% y/y 2.2% prior Trimmed mean +0.2% m/m and +2.9% y/y This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

As the focus turns towards Trump tariffs later in the week, the gold train is not stopping to kick start proceedings. The precious metal broke the $3,100 level earlier and is now up over 1% to a fresh record high of $3,121. In a time like this, it’s hard to find reasons not to like

This is fitting as they also see a higher chance of a recession ahead of what’s coming from Trump’s tariffs on 2 April. So, expecting a more dovish Fed in response plays into their overall outlook/narrative. This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

UPCOMING EVENTS: Monday: German CPI. Tuesday: Japan Unemployment Rate, Japan Tankan Index, China Caixin Manufacturing PMI, RBA Policy Decision, Swiss Manufacturing PMI, Eurozone CPI, Canada Manufacturing PMI, US ISM Manufacturing PMI, US Job Openings. Wednesday: US ADP, US Tariffs implementation Thursday: China Caixin Services PMI, ECB Meeting Minutes, Swiss CPI, Eurozone PPI, US Challenger Job

Rate cuts by year-end Fed: 80 bps (76% probability of no change at the upcoming meeting) ECB: 64 bps (92% probability of rate cut at the upcoming meeting) BoE: 52 bps (66% probability of rate cut at the upcoming meeting) BoC: 55 bps (62% probability of no change at the upcoming meeting) RBA: 74 bps

They’re now expecting another 25 bps rate cut before the summer break kicks in, following the latest developments. Last week, we did get softer inflation readings from France and Spain. That’s helping with the narrative alongside likely a softer growth outlook amid Trump’s tariffs coming up later this week. Goldman also revised their forecast for

Bloomberg (gated) carried the article. In brief: The People’s Bank of China investigated two individuals for allegedly spreading false rumors about interest rate cuts to gain online attention while posing as financial media. The operation was conducted in coordination with the network security department, and the suspects were handled by local law enforcement. In 2024,

Yen on the move higher, along with gold. There has been news also that Japan’s GPIF (world’s largest government pension investment fund) is expected to announce 5-year asset allocation plan today This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

China’s finance ministry will inject 500 billion yuan (around $69 billion) into four of the country’s largest state-owned banks as part of a broader effort to strengthen the financial sector and support economic growth. The Bank of China, China Construction Bank, Bank of Communications, and Postal Savings Bank plan to raise a combined 520 billion

Japan’s Financial Services Agency (FSA) is planning to amend the Financial Instruments and Exchange Act to officially recognize crypto assets as financial products, according to the Nikkei business daily. As part of this change, crypto assets would be subject to insider trading rules, banning trades based on non-public information. The FSA is expected to present

Japan February Industrial Output (preliminary) +2.5% m/m expected +2.3%, prior -1.1% For the y/y, +0.3% prior +2.2% One month ahead forecast is +0.6% prior +0.5% 2 month ahead forecast is +0.1% prior -2.0 Productions was stepped up to fill orders front running US tariffs. USD/JPY update … sitting near session low: This article was written

In case you missed it, we had a WSJ report overnight saying the Trump was weighing broader and higher tariffs with hikes potentially as high as 20%. This weighed on an already negative sentiment that was triggered by last Friday’s final University of Michigan consumer sentiment survey where the data showed an even worse picture

The other German state releases around the same time: Hesse CPI +2.4% vs +2.3% y/y prior Brandenburg CPI +2.3% vs +2.3% y/y prior Saxony CPI +2.5% vs +2.3% y/y prior North Rhine Westphalia CPI +1.9% vs +1.9% y/y prior Baden Wuerttemberg CPI +2.2% vs +2.5% y/y prior The numbers aren’t as soft as expected. At

Nanjing is China’s 2nd-tier Eastern city has lifted home purchase limits starting March 31 Related (news from weekend) China Construction Bank reports strong rebound in home mortgage applications – since Q4. Cite housing policies taking effect. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

Domestic sight deposits CHF 441.7 bn vs CHF 440.4 bn prior Swiss sight deposits rose back a little in the past week, keeping with a slight bounce in March. But overall, it’s still not all too much changed over the last few months. The trend as per below: This article was written by Justin Low

UK business confidence held steady in March, matching February’s six-month high, according to Lloyds Bank. Lloyds Business Barometer March 2025 came in at 49 vs. expected 50 and February’s 49 Retailers showed strong sentiment, aligning with official data showing a surprise jump in February retail sales. Confidence in own trading prospects hit its highest level

✅ Nasdaq Futures Analysis Today – Trade Compass Levels & Trade Plan (March 31, 2025) Nasdaq Futures (NQ) are trading at 19,222, down 1.21% from Friday’s close. After a sharp move lower in early trading, price action is now approaching key technical zones where a bullish retracement could develop. Our Trade Compass provides the critical

Commonwealth Bank of Australia analysts on USD/JPY: “We judge that Trump’s tariff regime will be more disruptive to the global economy than markets are currently pricing” Risks are tilted to a sharp decline in global equities and a weaker USD/JPY USD/JPY could soon sustainably break below support at 148.13 This article was written by Eamonn

The People’s Bank of China (PBOC), China’s central bank, is responsible for setting the daily midpoint of the yuan (also known as renminbi or RMB). The PBOC follows a managed floating exchange rate system that allows the value of the yuan to fluctuate within a certain range, called a “band,” around a central reference rate,

Fundamental Overview Gold has been on a steady uptrend lately as traders have been finding shelter in the precious metal amid stagflationary risks. In fact, we are seeing inflation expectations rising while growth forecasts get revised lower. Last Friday, we got some more bad news as the final University of Michigan survey showed consumer sentiment

Reserve Bank of Australia should cut rates tomorrow, Tuesday, April 1, 2025, says this piece in the Wall Street Journal: RBA Should Cut as Global Economic Outlook Goes Into a Tailspin more to come It’s a detailed, well-argued piece. If you can access the Journal, well worth a read. In really brief: things have changed

Keeping inflation in check is a constant battle Inflation needs to come down in a durable manner To do this, we need to have an interest rate that is carefully set Trump tariffs a chance for Europe to show independence Any ensuing trade war would be a lose-lose scenario She can take some comfort from

A government official in Japan says (if you believe him ….) Haven’t heard from manufacturers that US tariffs had direct impact on production at this point The results are here: Japan February Industrial Output (preliminary) +2.5% m/m (expected +2.3%, prior -1.1%) Market speculation is that front-running tariffs were the reason for the big jump. Yen

Today we don’t have much on the agenda with the German inflation data as the only highlight. As a reminder, the French and Spanish data last Friday missed across the board and firmed up the chances for a 25 bps cut at the upcoming ECB meeting. The news of the day is the WSJ report

Australia Private Sector Credit February 2025 Business and housing credit leading This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

Trump comments crossing: says not putting on oil sanctions right now making progress on Russia and Ukraine will soon make decision on secondary tariffs on Iran will put secondary tariffs on Iran if Tehran does not make a deal on a nuclear program with the US will be a deal on TikTok prior to the

Just a reminder as daylight savings have kicked into gear in Europe over the weekend. For those unaffected by the change, it means that European markets and data releases will be an hour earlier than before. And this will continue until the final Sunday of October. Daylight savings have long been a controversial agenda in

Another record high for gold, USD3106 hit. Its since come back below $3100: This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

Posting this out of interest. Crypooit folks have been, on balance, disappointed with the new administration of the reserve 9that wasn’t) and other developments. I don’t think there was much expectations of Doge coin to be used by the government, though? As an aside, even Musk’s government department of DOGE is disappointing. A lot of

China National Offshore Oil Corporation (CNOOC) announced on Monday that it has discovered a major oilfield in the eastern South China Sea proven reserves exceeding 100 million tonnes newly discovered Huizhou 19-6 oilfield China’s first large-scale integrated clastic oilfield discovered in deep to ultra-deep layers, said the CNOOC. — An integrated clastic oilfield is an

After a huge slump on Friday, US equities have opened weak in Sunday evening, US time, Globex trading. There was not a lot on the news front over the weekend to boost spirits. I just posted on Goldman Sachs views, they’ve jackecd up their inflation, unemployment (stagflation!), and recession risk forecasts: Goldman Sachs says 35%

Goldman Sachs has revised its U.S. tariff expectations sharply higher for 2025, warning that escalating trade tensions could weigh significantly on growth, inflation, and employment. In a note to clients, the bank said it now expects the average U.S. tariff rate to rise by 15 percentage points next year—up from a previous baseline of 10

Wall Street Journal (gated) with the report on what appears to be much more aggressive tariffs coming on April 2 than Trump was letting on last week. WSJ citing unnamed sources: Trump spent most of last week playing down expectations for his so-called reciprocal tariff plan on April 2, saying repeatedly that he would be

People’s Bank of China USD/CNY reference rate is due around 0115 GMT. The People’s Bank of China (PBOC), China’s central bank, is responsible for setting the daily midpoint of the yuan (also known as renminbi or RMB). The PBOC follows a managed floating exchange rate system that allows the value of the yuan to fluctuate

Commonwealth Bank of Australia expects the Reserve Bank to keep the official cash rate unchanged at 4.10% in April, with policymakers likely to strike a more dovish tone as they await the March quarter inflation report. While the RBA has maintained a modestly hawkish stance since its February rate cut—signalling a reluctance to ease again

Violence spreading further in the US with a firebomb attack on a Republican Party HQ office in New Mexico: Amy Barela, the chairwoman of the Republican Party of New Mexico: suspect hurled a Molotov cocktail at the building, igniting the fire no one harmed in incident More here and here. Pic via CBS This article

Shortly after the election, markets were in a great mood and it’s easy to see why. You had a Republican sweep with the promise to extend current tax cuts and maybe even deliver more. Since then, the tough math on the US deficit has eroded some of that optimism and Congress hasn’t moved particularly quick.

This is funny. Earlier today, Daly said she ‘still’ believed in cutting rates twice this year and I repeated my oft-said saying that when central bankers say the ‘still’ believe in something, they rarely do. Now she’s on the wires talking about today’s slightly-hot PCE report and saying it confirms her own decreased confidence in

Says he will be announcing pharma tariffs soon I don’t know if this tells us much. This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

The pre-market picture wasn’t bad at all but some softness in the consumer spending portion of the PCE report and another weak consumer sentiment print weighed. I would suspect those were small factors though compared to worries about tariffs. No one from the White House came out to talk down auto tariffs or April 2

An Axios report says the Trump admin is considering allowing the richest Americans’ tax rates to rise in return for cutting taxes on tips. There isn’t much here as it says “some White House officials believe” it would be a good idea. Note that this would have to get through Congress and it would take

US February PCE core +2.8% y/y vs +2.7% expected UMich March final consumer sentiment 57.0 vs 57.9 expected Trump drops the ‘governor’ talk and says he had ‘extremely productive’ call with Carney Canada PM Carney: Canada will implement retaliatory tariffs Trump says will “absolutely” follow through with tariff promise on Canada Trump says he is

I saw this from Nomura on Friday and am a wee bit slow to post it. here it is now. – With U.S.–China trade tensions expected to escalate following the Trump administration’s latest “America First” policy review, China’s measured response to new U.S. tariffs appears to be a calculated move, according to Nomura. In a

Today might have been a turning point in Trump’s relationship with Canada though many would argue that it’s now beyond repair. Yesterday Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney said: “The old relationship we had with the United States, based on deepening integration of our economies and tight security and military cooperation, is over.” Today though, Trump

Oil rig count -2 at 484 Gas rigs +1 at 103 Total rigs -1 at 592 Crude oil is trading down $0.64 at $69.27. For the week it is up around one dollar. This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

I would like to know the context of this quote, in particular the question that was asked because some subtitles could be important. Carney says Trump respected Canada’s sovereignty today both in private and public comments Talk with Trump was very cordial It’s not clear whether there will be new trade discussions between Canada, the

Told Iran they need to make a decision Iran is on his list of things to watch Is looking at reports of Iranian drones used in Ukraine Trump gave Iran some deadlines about its nuclear program at the start of his term and this was reportedly the response: 1. Iran reaffirms that it will not

The major European indices are closing lower for the day lower for the week: German DAX -222.86 points or -0.90% at 22455.89. For the week the index felt -1.90%. France’s CAC -74.03 points or -0.93% at 7916.09. For the week the index fell -1.58%. UK’s FTSE 100 fell -7.27 points or -0.08% at 8658.86. For

Elon Musk is combining X (formerly Twitter) and xAI (his AI company that’s known for Grok). The deal puts X under xAI with the transaction valuing X at $33 billion. That’s a 33% discount to the $44 billion he paid to take Twitter private, however with the debt component it might all wash out. There

Says Denmark has underinvested in security architecture in Greenland Will respect the self-determination of Greenlanders Greenland is less secure than it was 30, 40 years ago He’s right about Greenland being less secure but he’s not right about who it’s less secure from. That said, the ‘self-determination’ line is the most-dovish thing anyone in the

The Bank of Mexico (Banxico) delivered a widely expected 50 basis point rate cut, bringing the benchmark rate down to 9.00% in a unanimous decision. The central bank signaled that the inflation outlook supports continued easing, and it anticipates future cuts of similar size if conditions permit. However, policymakers also noted that recent shifts in

Canada PM Carney is commented on call with Trump and ssys: Canada will implement retaliatory tariffs Says will talk to Trump on the economy and security after the Canadian election. He says call with Pres. Trump was very constructive. He and Trump agreed to begin comprehensive negotiations about a new economic insecurity relationship immediately following

The euro is set to appreciate meaningfully over the next two years, according to Bank of America, as investors begin to price in diverging macroeconomic and policy trajectories in the U.S. and eurozone. In a note to clients, BofA strategists outlined a constructive outlook for the single currency, projecting it to reach $1.15 against the

Sector Overview Today’s stock market presents a challenging landscape, especially for technology stocks. The technology sector is noticeably in the red, with significant declines across major players. Google (GOOG) fell by 2.47%, while Meta (META) saw a dip of 2.59%. This broad sell-off indicates persistent investor concerns, particularly affecting the software and semiconductor segments.Nvidia (NVDA)

Prior 101.7; revised to 102.6 That’s the highest reading since August last year as the Swiss economic outlook picks up a little. It’s a bit of a contrast to investor sentiment though, which is seemingly more concerned about tariffs impacting the economy. This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

I take this as bullish CAD: “I just finished speaking with Prime Minister Mark Carney, of Canada. It was an extremely productive call, we agree on many things, and will be meeting immediately after Canada’s upcoming Election to work on elements of Politics, Business, and all other factors, that will end up being great for

Bitcoin has extended today’s decline to 3.5% or $3110 in a decline to $84,163. Risk is being taken down across the board today and that’s not a big surprise to me. At the start of the day, when stocks were almost flat, I wrote that I suspected quarter-end flows were propping up risk assets. That

As the stock market falls on tariff and inflation fears, Pres. Trump is out saying that he had a call with Canada PM Carney and said it was “extremely productive” and that they agreed on “many things”. Of course they did. The USDCAD has moved lower on the news with the price falling toward the

Trump chose the worst time possible to start his tariffs war. One thing that people forget to take into account is context. During the first Trump’s administration, we haven’t had an inflation problem with central bank struggling to achieve their 2% targets sustainably. Today, we have the opposite problem. Central banks are struggling to bring

The last mile will be about prudence The next ECB meeting is April 17 and the market is pricing in an 88% chance of a rate cut. Nagel is a hawk so I take this as a green light to take that pricing up to 100%. June though is 50/50. This article was written by

EURUSD initially moved lower following softer inflation data from France and Spain, as well as a rise in Germany’s unemployment rate and jobless claims—factors that weighed on the euro. However, the tone shifted after Bloomberg reported that the EU is preparing concessions in response to U.S. reciprocal tariffs imposed by the Trump administration. According to

It’s a tough one in the equity markets today with the S&P 500 now down 2% and the Nasdaq down 2.7%. Tariff angst is high ahead of Wednesday’s planned Trump tariffs. It’s very tough to estimate exactly what’s priced in for tariffs but if there is any room for de-escalation, the stock market today is

It’s been a pretty choppy week for many markets as traders continue to wait for the US reciprocal tariffs announcement next Wednesday before taking positions with more conviction. That’s what the market is focused on now and all the rest is just short term noise. That catalyst should lead to sustained trends. On the 1

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Says he thinks things are going to work out very well with Canada We had a very good talk with Carney Mixed messages here. “We had a very good conversation,” he said. “We have liberation day [tariffs], as you know, on April 2nd, because, and I’m not referring to Canada, many countries have taken advantage

The USDCAD pair continues to mostly range as traders await the April 2nd deadline. The Loonie’s faith remains tied to the US tariffs plan that is going to be unveiled on Wednesday. The Canadian Dollar could really see a massive appreciation in case we get good news. It’s a game of patience now. Not having

The dollar is keeping steadier so far on the day, with the antipodes lagging among the major currencies. EUR/USD is still hugging levels under 1.0800 with large option expiries in play while AUD/USD is seen down 0.3% to 0.6285 with month-end considerations in focus as well. Meanwhile, gold continues to shine brightly as it races

Reaffirms that maintaining stable, healthy development of US-China relations is fundamental Will handle US-China relations based on the principles of mutual respect and win-win cooperation China will remain an ideal, safe and promising investment destination Will ensure foreign firms have fair access to factors of production “Blocking someone else’s path will only block your own

Prior +3.0% HICP +2.2% vs +2.6% y/y expected Prior +2.9% Core annual inflation was marked down to 2.0%, down from 2.2% in February. So, that’s definitely a welcome development for the ECB. It may be slower than France and Italy, but the disinflation process in Spain is at least still progressing. This article was written

Radio-Canada reports that Canadian PM and US President will speak at some point this morning. Carney is low solidly leading in the polls ahead of the April 28 election (still a long ways away) and this will be the first phone call between them. If we get some fresh ’51st State’ rhetoric from Trump, then

Eurostoxx -0.4% Germany DAX -0.4% France CAC 40 -0.4% UK FTSE -0.1% Spain IBEX -0.1% Italy FTSE MIB -0.1% The selling continues as we get into the final stretch of the week, with US futures also keeping lower on the day. S&P 500 futures are now down 0.3% as risk remains on the defensive. 10-year

The s hello helloelloff continues, led by sharp declines in the NASDAQ index, which is currently down 443 points or -2.49%. The S&P 500 is lower by 1.8%, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average is down 1.52%. Technically, the NASDAQ is approaching a key support level: the 38.2% retracement of the rally from the late

Prior month 0.2% Canada GDP For January 0.4% vs 0.3% estimate Advanced estimate for February 0.0% MoM This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

Today we had the Atlanta Fed GDPNow Q1 tracker taken down to -2.8% from -1.8% previously. A different tracker from a different Fed branch is painting a completely different picture. The NY Fed tracker was revised higher to 2.86% vs 2.72% prior. “News from this week’s data releases increased the 2025:Q1 estimate by 0.2 percentage

S&P 500 futures are down 8 points, which isn’t bad given all the angst in the world. I tend to think some of the quarter-end rebalancing flows are at work in the past couple days but time will tell. Another trend that’s unfolding is a re-think on who will be the big winners in the

As the stock market continues to fall, at least yields are moving lower. As the US stocks fall sharply, the yields are at least moving lower. 2-year yield 3.944%, -5.3 basis points 5-year yield 4.017%, -8.1 basis points 10 year yield 4.285%,-8.3 basis points 30 year yield 4.651%, -7.7 basis points For the trading week,

The real world is changing and so is the world of FX. There was a time when if you had a 1.4% drop in the S&P 500, the US dollar would be much higher against everything but the yen and Swiss franc. That’s not the case today as it’s lower against the euro/pound and only

Major stock indices continue to get hammered led by the NASDAQ index which is down near 2%. The S&P index is down -1.4%. Major indices are now down for the week. .Dow -0.46% S&P index -0.99% NASDAQ index -1.83% Russell 2000-1.32% A snapshot of the market currently shows: Dow industrial average -510 points or -1.21%

Prior -13.6 Economic confidence 95.2 vs 97.0 expected Prior 96.3 Industrial confidence -10.6 vs -10.5 expected Prior -11.4; revised to -11.0 Services confidence 2.4 vs 6.7 expected Prior 6.2; revised to 5.1 Slight delay in the release by the source. Economic sentiment in the euro area declined to its lowest since December last year as

Rate cuts by year-end Fed: 64 bps (85% probability of no change at the upcoming meeting) ECB: 60 bps (90% probability of rate cut at the upcoming meeting) Following the soft French and Spanish CPI data, traders increased the expected easing from 56 bps to 60 bps. BoE: 45 bps (56% probability of rate cut

Due on Friday at 0830 US Eastern time (0130 GMT), the Core PCE data is the focus. The Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) data is a key measure of inflation that tracks changes in the prices of goods and services purchased by consumers. It is reported monthly by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) and is

Trump reached out to schedule a call Says will speak to business and union leaders to coordinate a response to April 2 Nothing is off the table when it comes to defending Canada It is clear that the US is no longer a reliable trade partner There is no silver bullet and no quick fix

A report from Bloomberg was out about an hour ago and highlights the state of play between the US and Europe in the tariff war, citing sources: EU officials expect 10-25% tariff rate on all or most goods European Union is identifying concessions it’s willing to make in a term sheet They were told there

I posted during the Asia timezone on the range of expectations for the imminent PCE data: US inflation (PCE) data due Friday – critical ranges to watch – clustered around +0.3% m/m Check out that post for the full thing, but if you just want the numbers: Core PCE Price Index m/m 0.1% to +0.3%

In the European session, the main highlights are the Preliminary French and Spanish CPI figures. The market is pricing around 80% probability of another 25 bps cut at the May meeting so the data will likely influence those expectations. In the American session, the focus will switch to the Canadian GDP, and the US Core

Prior +1.7%; revised to +1.4% Retail sales +2.2% vs +0.5% y/y expected Prior +1.0%; revised to +0.6% Retail sales (ex autos, fuel) +1.0% vs -0.5% m/m expected Prior +2.1%; revised to +1.6% Retail sales (ex autos, fuel) +2.2% vs +0.4% y/y expected Prior +1.2%; revised to +0.8% That’s a notable beat with non-food store sales

In early March, Hong Kong industrial conglomerate CK Hutchison agreed in principle to a deal to sell 45 ports globally to Blackrock with the deal set to be signed April 2. Now, that deal won’t happen as China’s market regulator will ‘review’ the deal, halting it, or at least the two ports in Panama won’t

Kremlin says Putin did not raise idea of Ukraine being put under temporary administration with Trump. Says Ukrainian army is out of control and not heeding orders from Ukraine’s leadership. Says armed nationalist forces in Ukraine are gaining strength which is why Putin mentioned idea of temporary external administration. Says Ukraine is continuing to strike

The EURUSD is lower after weaker German jobs picture and lower inflation in France. The GBPUSD is also lower anc cracking below its 100 hour MA again, ahead of the US PCE data at 8:30 AM ET. The USDJPY fell lower to MA support but is bouncing off the MA. The price is still lower

I have been waiting for this update in light of yesterday’s trade data and it’s not good. It pegs Q1 GDP growth at -2.8% from -1.8%. If there’s any good news it’s that the gold adjusted model is only a -0.5% decline. “After recent releases from the US Census Bureau and the US Bureau of

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Just a heads up on that as this will affect the timing of economic data releases and market open hours, all being an hour earlier. That is if you’re not from the region itself of course. This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

Prior +0.8% HICP +0.9% vs +1.1% y/y expected Prior +0.9% The readings are softer than estimated but French consumer prices have been keeping under 2% for a while now. So, it’s a plus point for the ECB. This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

The technical outlook for NZDUSD remains largely unchanged. Since March 20, price action has been confined to a narrow range between 0.8796 and 0.8850—a seven-day stretch of consolidation as traders await a breakout catalyst. A decisive move beyond either range extreme, accompanied by momentum, will likely signal the next directional push. Moving averages are starting

The narrative for USDCAD hasn’t changed much—I’ve been saying it for a while now: we’re stuck in the “Red Box.” That range has contained most of the trading activity since mid-December. Yes, there have been moves outside of it, but they’ve mostly failed to stick. At the end of January and into early February, price

The consensus was for a 50 bps cut to 9.00% and that’s what they delivered. Decision was unanimous Anticipates that the inflationary environment will allow it to continue toe rate cutting cycle Board will consider adjusting rates by similar magnitudes US policy changes have added uncertainty USD/MXN is up 1.1% and I think that underscores

Daly says she hasn’t moved her dot since last year. Need a wait-and-see posture on monetary policy, give industries time to adjust to tariffs Policy is in a good place, have to be patient Doesn’t have enough info to change her forecast Hearing ‘cautious optimism’ from businesses I have long said that when policymakers say

German DAX futures -0.5% UK FTSE futures -0.1% The selloff in Europe yesterday was more measured at the end of the day, with stocks moving off the lows. That said, there’s still a hangover of pessimism ahead of Trump tariffs next week. And that’s still weighing on the overall mood in broader markets as we

I have been dogging the UMich consumer sentiment survey and its political skews for 15 years. Now all the sudden the rest of the world seems to have caught on and the report is seen as filler. Still, I’m curious to see the direction of sentiment as this one tanked early and presumably could start

Prelim was 57.9 Prior was 64.7 Current conditions 63.8 vs 63.5 prelim Expectations 52.6 vs 54.2 prelim 1-year inflation 5.0% vs 4.9 prelim 5-year 4.1% vs 3.9% prelim two-thirds of consumers expect unemployment to rise in the year ahead, the highest reading since 2009 This report has turned highly political but the rising inflation expectations

There are a couple to take note of on the day, as highlighted in bold. The first ones are for EUR/USD at the 1.0750 and 1.0800 levels once again. That should help to keep price action locked in once again, with the latter especially providing an extra layer of defense to any upside extensions on

Prior 5k Unemployment rate 6.3% vs 6.2% expected Prior 6.2% German unemployment rises by more than estimated in March as the trend continues to outline further softness in the labour market. The jobless rate ticked a little higher to 6.3%, its highest since September 2020. This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

Headlines: Markets increase bets on ECB rate cuts following the softer inflation figures What is the distribution of forecasts for the US PCE? ECB’s de Guindos: Caution is even more important during times of uncertainty France March preliminary CPI +0.8% vs +0.9% y/y expected Spain March preliminary CPI +2.3% vs +2.4% y/y expected Germany April

The NASDAQ index led the declines in trading here today for the second consecutive day. Investors continue to lighten up on the tech/chip stocks. Nvidia fell -2.05% Meta fell -1.37 Alphabet fell -1.71% Broadcom fell AMD fell -3.21% Super microcomputers fell -6.26%. Palo Alto networks-5.69% Taiwan Semi conductors fell -3.03% Palantir fell-2.39% General Motors and

Canadian Prime minister Carney says Donald Trump reached out on Wednesday to schedule a call between the two. The talk is that the call will take place on Friday. Carney said on Thursday: “The old relationship we had with the United States based on deepening integration of our economies and tight security and military cooperation

Good morning, afternoon and evening all. Any charts, technical analysis, trade ideas, thoughts, views, ForexLive traders would like to share and discuss with fellow ForexLive traders, please do so: This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

A report earlier today said Ontario “expects the US administration to significantly ease the impact of auto tariffs on Canada” in the future after Howard Lutnick called Ontario Premiere Doug Ford yesterday. Now, we have comments from Ford saying he spoke to Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney and they agreed to delay counter tariffs until

Prior 0.0% GDP +1.5% vs +1.4% y/y prelim Prior +1.0% No change to the initial estimate on the quarterly reading as the UK economy posts a marginal growth to wrap up Q4 last year. This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

Fundamental Overview The USD performance has been mixed this week amid general uncertainty ahead of the April 2 tariffs plan announcement. The greenback got a bit of a boost recently as Trump announced 25% tariffs on auto imports on Wednesday but those gains eventually waned. Overall, the market is still pricing between two to three

Core PCE (excluding food & energy): Prior was +2.6% Core m/m +0.4% vs +0.3% exp Unrounded core PCE % vs +0.285% m/m prior PCE excluding food, energy and housing % m/m vs +0.3% m/m prior Supercore (services ex-shelter) % m/m and % y/y Headline PCE Headline PCE +2.5% y/y vs +2.5% expected Deflator +0.3% m/m

US initial jobless claims 224K vs 225K estimate US February advanced goods trade balance -$147.391 billion vs -$155.5 billion expected US Q4 final GDP +2.4% vs +2.3% expected US February advance wholesale inventories +0.3% vs +0.4% expected US February pending home sales +2.0% vs +1.0% expected Australian PM set to call a May 3 election

Barclays says there is a fall ahead =for the yuan, that markets have not yet ‘priced in’ higher tariffs. see fundamental reasons for the yuan to fall says the yuan has resilience since the US election, but “Despite this, we expect continued pressure on China’s balance of payments dynamics owing to tariffs” scope for large-scale

The ranges of estimates are important in terms of market reaction because when the actual data deviates from the expectations, it creates a surprise effect. Another important input in market’s reaction is the distribution of forecasts. In fact, although we can have a range of estimates, most forecasts might be clustered on the upper bound

The median for inflation expectations over the next 12 months and for 3 years ahead remains unchanged at 2.6% and 2.4% respectively in February, similar to that of January. But the median rate of perceived inflation over the previous 12 months fell further to 3.1% – its lowest since September 2021. But more importantly perhaps

Japan might be one that is most impacted by Trump’s auto tariffs but given the nature of their relationship with the US, any major retaliation is off the table. This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

Trade war would mostly impact economic growth Disinflation process is continuing, goal to be reached in the coming months Trade war impact on inflation would be offset over the medium-term amid lower growth It might be a stretch, but the headline remark could be teasing a pause. At the same time though, he’s talking up

The Wall Street Journal (gate) is reporting that Trump has warned US automakers not to raise prices: Trump told the executives that the White House would look unfavorably on such a move, leaving some of them rattled and worried they would face punishment if they increased prices, people with knowledge of the call said. Instead,

Gold continues to rise, strong demand from Asian central banks and other central banks is supporting the price, along with those seeing comfort from rising geopolitical risks. I posted yesterday on Goldman Sachs’ forecast – its one of the loftiest I have seen. China has been one of the big buyers. This article was written

Dollar expected to be bid on month-end – Deutsche Dollar the flavour this month-end, quarter-end – Barclays They’re not always accurate but it’s always good to have this in your back pocket just in case. So, yeah. This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

The Reserve Bank of Australia is expected to leave its cash rate unchanged at its March 31 / April 1 meeting. Earlier: Poll shows expectations are for the Reserve Bank of Australia to stay on hold next week All 39 economists surveyed by Reuters expect the Reserve Bank of Australia to keep the cash rate

Full text of the Bank of Japan Summary of Opinions of the March 18 and 19 meeting is here. One member said inflation is somewhat overshooting expectations. One member said wage hikes in spring wage talks are somewhat exceeding last year’s figures, with nominal wages rising at a pace in line with the achievement of

Chinese President Xi Jinpingmet with CEOs of such firms as BMW, Mercedes, Qualcomm. As the US appears to be pulling back on global ties China is stepping up. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

A hotter-than-expected reading on Tokyo inflation has strengthened the case for a Bank of Japan rate hike as soon as May, according to ING, which points to signs of broadening price pressures across both goods and services. Consumer price inflation in the Japanese capital rose to 2.9% year-on-year in March, up from a revised 2.8%

Prior -24.7; revised to -24.6 It’s only a slight improvement as NIM consumer expert, Rolf Bürkl, notes that: “Apparently, the elections and the prospect of a new government have lessened pessimism among a number of consumers. However, the renewed rise in the willingness to save is clouding the overall picture. It prevents a stronger improvement

Data from New Zealand, ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence Falls to 93.2 in March 2025 prior 96.6 This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

Federal Reserve Bank of Boston President Susan Collins: Cautiously, realistically optimistic about the economy. Economy started 2025 in a good place. Inflation had come down but was still elevated at the start of the year. The outlook now is much cloudier for inflation and growth. Inevitable tariffs will increase inflation in the near term. It

Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond President Barkin: Current moderately restrictive stance is a good place to be. If conditions shift, the Fed can adjust. Current levels of uncertainty could dampen consumer and business spending. Federal government policy currently at center stage. The pace of change has created a sense of instability. Direction of federal policy

Coming up from the Federal Reserve at the bottom of the hour, 2030 GMT / 1630 US Eastern time: Federal Reserves Barkin and Collins speaking after US RTH close on Thursday Tokyo area inflation data follows later. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

1615 GMT / 1215 US Eastern time: Federal Reserve Board Governor Michael Barr participates in “Banking Policy” discussion before the 2025 Banking Institute event hosted by the University of North Carolina Law School Barr resigned from his position as Vice Chair for Supervision of the Federal Reserve Board, effective February 28, 2025. However, he continues

Morgan Stanley expects a firmer reading in February’s core personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index, forecasting a monthly gain of 0.35%. The bank attributes the strength to persistent goods inflation and a rebound in core services prices excluding housing. In contrast, the headline PCE index is projected to rise by a slightly softer 0.32% month-on-month,

0830 GMT / 0430 US Eastern time Online remarks by ECB board member Luis de Guindos at conference “VI Cumbre FEDEPE” organised by FEDEPE (Federation of Female Professionals) Ears open for any hints at the path ahead for the European Central Bank. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

All three of the measures have come in above expected, and all of them above (or equal to in the case of the headline) the February reading. To round it out, all three are also above the Bank of Japan 2% target. At the margin you’d think that this is positive for a Bank of

The People’s Bank of China (PBOC), China’s central bank, is responsible for setting the daily midpoint of the yuan (also known as renminbi or RMB). The PBOC follows a managed floating exchange rate system that allows the value of the yuan to fluctuate within a certain range, called a “band,” around a central reference rate,

The latest poll on the Reserve Bank of Australia from Reuters, in brief: RBA to hold steady in April: All 39 economists surveyed by Reuters expect the Reserve Bank of Australia to keep the cash rate at 4.10% on April 1. Two cuts expected in 2025: Median forecast sees 25 bps cuts in May and

Mexico’s peso has shown resilience in early 2025, gaining about 3.2% against the U.S. dollar, but Wells Fargo expects it could weaken ahead. The currency remains overvalued, according to the bank, and faces growing headwinds—including a likely recession triggered by potential U.S. tariffs and the risk of sovereign credit downgrades. Wells Fargo projects Mexican GDP

Federal Reserve speakers on Friday include Barr and Bostic Chinese President Xi Jinping met with global CEOs in Beijing on Friday China unveiled a plan to enhance the sustainability of its aluminum industry by 2027 European Central Bank board member Luis de Guindos speaking Friday US inflation (PCE) data due Friday – critical ranges to

​China has unveiled a comprehensive plan to enhance the quality and sustainability of its aluminum industry by 2027. Spearheaded by ten government departments, including the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, the initiative sets ambitious targets:​ Increase Domestic Bauxite Resources: Aiming for a 3%–5% boost to reduce reliance on imports.​ Expand Recycled Aluminum Output: Targeting

I have long brushed-aside talk of de-dollarization; around ideas like a BRICS currency, I’ve mocked it. But a note from Deutsche Bank today has me seeing new ways that that dollar dominance could erode, if not collapse. They call it a nuclear button for the US dollar and it’s the FX swap line system. It

People’s Bank of China USD/CNY reference rate is due around 0115 GMT. The People’s Bank of China (PBOC), China’s central bank, is responsible for setting the daily midpoint of the yuan (also known as renminbi or RMB). The PBOC follows a managed floating exchange rate system that allows the value of the yuan to fluctuate

JPMorgan estimates the S&P 500’s fair value at around 5400, implying the index is about 6% overvalued. However, the bank views this premium as modest and likely to be offset by earnings growth and strong U.S. liquidity trends. Using a 4.8% discount rate—just below the 10-year average—JPMorgan says valuations are slightly elevated but not alarming.

Australian national election will be on May 3, Prime Minister Anthony Albanese has (finally) set the date. The current government in Australia is centre-left, while the opposition is centre-right. Australian financial markets are rarely troubled too much by a change in government. The differences between the two sides are rarely vast. We await official election

The data post is here: Tokyo February headline CPI +2.9% y/y (2.7% expected) I pointed out there that: All three of the measures have come in above expected, and all of them above (or equal to in the case of the headline) the February reading. To round it out, all three are also above the

Australian PM set to call a May 3 election This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

I had a chance to speak with Dale Pinkert at ForexAnalytix today on tariffs and a dozen other things that are driving markets right now. The people in the webinar were teeing up comments like “wow, he’s so outspoken” so I must have said something notable. This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond President Barkin: My instinct on auto tariffs is that the top line number will not be the increase that is faced by consumers given competition, exchange rates, other issues Auto companies will face challenges in passing tariffs through to consumers, given competition in market-relative prices will matter a lot Companies

The price of WTI crude oil is settling at $69.92. That’s up $0.27 or 0.39%. The high price reached $69.97. The low price was at $69.12. Looking at the daily chart, the 100-day moving average comes in at $70.66. That is the next key target on the topside. Above that and the 38.2% retracement of

Trump speaking imminently – stay tuned! This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

Bitcoin Analysis Today: TradeCompass Levels and Strategy Map (March 27, 2025) Live Price at Analysis: $87,175 tradeCompass delivers a clear, structured map for trading Bitcoin futures today. This directional framework outlines key breakout levels, partial profit targets, and risk management zones for both bullish and bearish scenarios—designed for traders who need clarity and control in

I appeared on BNNBloomberg on Wednesday (unfortunately without a chance to shave) and spoke about what’s priced in for US tariffs on Canada and the rest of the world. If you haven’t read it yet, I did a deep dive on what’s priced in for tariffs earlier today. This article was written by Adam Button

The AUDUSD continues to coil between key technical levels, as traders await a decisive breakout. For most of the day, the pair has traded in a tight range between the 100-hour moving average at 0.6296 and the 200-hour MA at 0.6316, reflecting a broader indecision in the market. Price action has shifted above and below

Major European indices are closing the day mostly lower. Spain’s Ibex little changed but down. Italy’s FTSE MIB up marginally. German DAX -0.77% France’s CAC -0.51% UK’s FTSE 100 -0.27% Spain’s Ibex -0.07% Italy’s FTSE MIB +0.10%. As London/European traders look toward the exits, US stock indices are trading lower in what has been an

Update: Carney’s spokeswoman says they have not spoken. We will keep a close eye to see what leaks out. Hopefully it’s a chance for a reset but I’m not holding my breathe. This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

NZDUSD is currently trapped in a tight range, ping-ponging between key moving averages as traders await a decisive breakout. The 200 bar MA on the 4-hour chart at 0.57113 is acting as support, while the 200 hour MA at 0.57618 caps the upside. In between lies a confluence of technical levels: 100 bar MA on

US is serious about Greenland US will promote its interests in the Arctic Concern that NATO sees the North as the possible foothold for conflicts. Russia has never threatened anyone in the Arctic There is possibility of cooperation in Arctic, including with Western states. Russia has to boost a fleet of icebreakers Russia will increase

Paul Tudor Jones is a famous billionaire hedge fund manager. In an interview he gave to Jack Schwager and later published in the book “Market Wizards”, Paul reveals that he “doesn’t just use a price stop, but also a time stop”. Beginner traders are taught to use a stop loss to avoid big losses and

The US Congressional Budget Office is out with its latest budget deficit numbers. Note that these are based on current laws and that would mean the expiration of the Trump tax cuts (from 2017) at the end of this year. Those are almost-certainly going to be extended so you can assume these numbers will be

The sellers in USDCAD had their opportunity on the break below the bottom of the Red Box consolidation zone at 1.4268 and the 100-day moving average at 1.4260. However, the bearish push failed to gather momentum, with price holding just above the March 6 low at 1.4238. That failure to break lower has shifted the

China will extend its stamp duty exemption on offshore trading from April 2025 to December 2027, in a move aimed at supporting market liquidity and encouraging greater foreign investor participation. The extension signals Beijing’s continued efforts to bolster confidence in its capital markets and attract longer-term international capital. The exemption primarily applies to trading activity

After a 14% pullback over four weeks, the NASDAQ futures (NQ1!) have retraced around 7% in just the past week and a half. The price climbed steadily into the top band of the rising channel, only to stall out. That’s where the market sent its usual message: no free rides for late bulls. Anyone who

The auto tariff news is here from Wednesday afternoon US time: Trump slaps a 25% tariff on all cars not made in the USA The USD has risen after Trump’s announcement of 25% tariff on all autos not made in USA Recap of Trump’s 25% auto tariff on foreign-made cars starting April 2nd Trump has

PS ab The EURUSD opened the day trading down to new lows going back to March 5. Concerns about Trumps auto tariffs sent the pair lower. However, the price bounced from a key confluence of support that included the 38.2% retracement of the recent upswing from the February 28 low, and the 200-day moving average

For years, warnings about the dollar’s impending collapse have centered on two major concerns: the rapid rise in U.S. public debt, which is growing by $3.65 trillion a year, and the soaring costs of servicing that debt. If we take a closer look, the figures are indeed alarming: debt held by investors, corporations, foreign governments,

High yield 4.233% WI level at the time of the auction 4.227% Tail +0.6 basis points vs 6 month average of -1.3 bps Bid to cover 2.53X vs six with average of 2.69X Dealers 12.67% versus average of 9.05% DIrects 26.1% versus six month average of 19.64% Indirects 61.2% versus six-month averages 71.31% . Auction

If find some of the discourse around tariffs to be downright funny. You have some supposedly-smart people saying they think tariffs will be ‘lower-than-expected’ and then you ask them what is expected and they have no idea, they don’t even have a concept of an idea. It’s all vibes. I get this, because it’s so

Eurostoxx -1.1% Germany DAX -1.4% France CAC 40 -1.1% UK FTSE -0.6% Spain IBEX -0.9% Italy FTSE MIB -1.3% It’s not looking pretty as European indices are eyeing another weekly decline this month. German stocks are hit the hardest this morning as auto tariffs are weighing especially. Germany sits just behind Mexico, Japan, South Korea,

US auto tariffs impact global supply chains It is now about delivering a decisive response from the EU No country can achieve prosperity through imposing additional tariffs We will support EU efforts to find a solution through negotiations Well, counter-tariffs are surely to be on the way once we move past 2 April. The escalation

The EURUSD and the GBPUSD are higher after initial dips after the auto tariff announcement by Pres. Trump early in the new trading day, did not find follow through selling. For the EURUSD, it ran into some key support. The post from yesterday highlighted that key support. Watch the video above to see what levels

But they do say that their response will be “timely, robust and well-calibrated”. Well, they still have until 2 April to identify what that will be. If anything else, counter-tariffs are very much expected at the very least. This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

With tears taking center stage, the Russian/Ukraine war is more on the back burner once again. There was supposed to be a cease-fire at least on infrastructure/energy targets. Ukraine Pres. Zelenskyy is saying that is not the case: Ukraine will give US evidence of Russia violating cease-fire. Expects reaction from Washington as promised. My guess

Barclays today highlighted that finished automobile exports are 5% of Mexico’s GDP. Yet with 25% tariffs announced yesterday, the peso is only down 0.8% and it’s still above when Trump was re-elected. The market thinks it’s all a bluff. Now, Canada’s Globe & Mail reports that Ontario “expects the US administration to significantly ease the

USDCHF remains confined within a well-defined consolidation range between 0.8795 and 0.8848. The 0.8848 level is a strong ceiling after repeatedly capping upside attempts, as indicated by multiple touches (marked 1 through 8). Those highs, highlight the significance of this resistance zone. Needless to say, a sustained break above 0.8848 would be a bullish signal,

Sector Overview The automotive manufacturing sector is exemplifying strong movement today, with Tesla (TSLA) leading the charge at an impressive +4.10%. This solid rise reflects investor optimism and potential growth in the electric vehicle market. However, on the downside, the semiconductor sector is facing notable struggles, with major players like Broadcom (AVGO) dropping 2.56% and

Increase in long term yields, all things being equal, tightens financial conditions. France needs to bring back deficit to 3%. This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at www.forexlive.com.

US consumer confidence is plunging but spending isn’t. The latest spending data from Bank of America shows overall spending up year-over-year despite an 8-9% decline in gasoline prices. There are some worrisome signs with spending on lodging, airlines and entertainment dropping but overall the consumer is holding up, with the latest numbers show an acceleration

Prior week 223K revised to 225K initial does claims.224K vs 225K estimate 4 week moving average of initial jobless claims 224K vs 228.75K last week. The 4 week MA is the same as the number for the week. Continuing claims 1.856M vs 1.888M estimate. Prior week revised to 1.881M from 1.892M. 4 week moving average

Shares of Tesla are sharply in trading today. Shares are currently up $19 or 6.99% of $291. The high price has reached $291.85 while the low price was down at $271.82. Technically, the share price is showing bullish momentum after holding key support at $265.13 yesterday, a level tied to prior swing lows (see red

Headlines: Gold shines as we draw closer to Trump tariffs deadline The DAX index falls as auto stocks get slammed on Trump’s 25% tariffs Trump threatens “large scale” tariffs on EU, Canada if they cause economic harm to the US German economy minister: We must be clear that we will not back down to US

Prior was -4.6% Year over year transactions -3.6% vs -5.2% prior Index at 72.0 vs 70.6 prior (was at a series low) “Despite the modest monthly increase, contract signings remain well below normal historical levels,” said NAR Chief Economist Lawrence Yun. “A meaningful decline in mortgage rates would help both demand and supply – demand

The GBPUSD has been in a steady uptrend since bottoming at 1.20987 on January 13, a low that aligned closely with support levels from September and October 2024 (see red circle on the daily chart). Since then, the pair has continued to step higher, carving out a series of higher lows and higher highs. In

Politico is reporting that the European Union is likely to face a flat, double-digit tariff on all goods exported to the U.S. as part of “reciprocal tariffs” expected to be formally announced by former President Donald Trump on April 2 and take effect at midnight on April 3. This is according to European diplomats. The

We are going to give a response after April 2 Within a free trade agreement, there should not be tariffs The door is open to talk with the US We will do what is best for Mexico Economy minister Ebrard: We are at a negotiating table with US Commerce Secretary to protect autoparts made in

Escalate to de-escalate? Why US tariffs may be lower than feared Politico: EU tariffs could be as high as 20-25% Trump slaps a 25% tariff on all cars not made in the USA Recap of Trump’s 25% auto tariff on foreign-made cars starting April 2nd Trump has allowed a one-month tariff exemption for auto parts

Trump said he may reduce tariffs on China to help facilitate a deal for ByteDance to sell TikTok’s U.S. operations. He suggested a small tariff reduction could help get the deal done but noted tariffs are worth more than TikTok overall. Trump also indicated he might extend the deadline for the TikTok sale again. Trump

The world is struggling to understand whatever tariff strategy the US is trying to roll out and so far taking it in stride. If the economy starts to roll over, that will change in a hurry. One early indication will come from initial jobless claims and there is a risk that when it gets bad,

UBS outlined three reasons to favour U.S. artificial intelligence firms over those of China: Higher Capex: U.S. AI firms are investing more heavily (20% vs. China’s 11.7%), reinforcing long-term competitive advantage. Stronger R&D: Greater U.S. research spending boosts chances of breakthrough innovations. Better Monetization: U.S. companies have clearer paths to turning AI advances into revenue

In the European session we don’t have anything on the agenda other than a couple of low tier data releases. In the American session, we get the final US Q4 GDP and the US Jobless Claims. The GDP report is old news and the market won’t care about it, so the focus will be on

ECB diGuindos is no the wires saying: We are optimistic with regard to inflation. We believe that will converge toward target in coming quarters on a stable basis Main impact of tariffs on growth and short lived impact on inflation For growth, trade war is extremely detrimental. Need to be very prudent with policy This

Fundamental Overview Gold got a bit of a boost yesterday on renewed tariffs fears as Trump announced 25% tariffs on imported autos. The threat of higher inflation in the short term coupled with lower growth is keeping the precious metal supported. In the bigger picture, as long as the Fed doesn’t change its reaction function

I posted earlier on moves in China to dump bad property-related loans: China sets record in bad asset disposals, shifts focus to housing market More now: China’s major banks are speeding up property loan write-offs under regulatory pressure to clean up balance sheets and support the broader economy. Regulators, including ICBC, have been urged to

There are a couple to take note of on the day, as highlighted in bold. The first ones are for EUR/USD at the 1.0750 and 1.0800 levels. The latter is still a key draw for the pair and the expiries could help to keep price action more locked in during European trading later. As a

Details: Advance Q4 GDP reading was +2.3% Second reading was +2.3% Q3 GDP was +2.8% Final sales 3.3% vs +3.2% second reading Consumer spending 4.0% vs +4.2% second reading Inflation numbers: GDP deflator 2.3% vs +2.4% second reading Core PCE 2.6% vs +2.7% second reading PCE prices final 2.4% vs +2.4% second reading PCE service

In case you missed it, Trump announced 25% tariffs on imported autos late yesterday. This is weighing on European auto stocks today with notable losses for Mercedes-Benz Group and BMW exceeding 5%. Technically, we can see in the 4 hour chart below that we have a strong support zone around the 22,223 level where we

The mix of cooling AI investment and a White House looming announcement (4 pm ET scheduled) of auto tariffs put the market in the mood to lower risk: S&P 500 -1.1% Nasdaq Comp -2.0% DJIA -0.3% Russell 2000 -1.8% Toronto TSX Comp -0.8% This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

Prior was +0.8 Retail inventories ex auto +0.1% vs +0.5% prior This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at www.forexlive.com.

Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt reiterated some of the things that have been coming out of the White House: “He thinks that some of these numbers would be more conservative than many people are expecting,” she said today. So what is actually expected? Here is a Deutsche Bank survey: This article was written by Adam Button

Don’t Overreact to Headlines — The Market Has a Short Memory Why most news doesn’t matter as much as it feels — and how to stay focused on what actually moves markets over time. “If you react to every headline, you’ll miss the story.” Most News Doesn’t Matter — Even If It Feels Urgent Headlines

Rate cuts by year-end Fed: 62 bps (85% probability of no change at the upcoming meeting) ECB: 56 bps (82% probability of rate cut at the upcoming meeting) Following the announcement of 25% tariffs of auto imports, traders increased the expected easing from 51 bps to 56 bps. BoE: 45 bps (56% probability of rate

The NASDAQ index has opened lower, but is seeing a modest bounce in early trading. The price action reflects the the ongoing tug-of-war between buyers and sellers. Monday’s Gap Higher: The index saw a notable gap higher on Monday, with prices moving up toward the 38.2% retracement level of the decline from the February high

News here: Trump slaps a 25% tariff on all cars not made in the USA The US dollar is higher. EUR/USD to 1.0740 as I post: This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

Trump’s announcement of the 25% auto tariffs was earlier. I’ve summarised the main points, as Trump covered a lot of separate ground (lumber, drugs, April 2 etc) and it was all a bit jumbled. a new 25% tariff on all cars and light trucks not manufactured in the United States will be on top of

China’s Vice Premier Ding Xuexiang: Will strive to achieve full-year growth target Will implement more pro-active macro policies this year Improving trend in China’s economy has become more consolidated Will resolutely oppose protectionism There is a significant rise in uncertainties in the world Will prompt development of private firms Says will study issues concerning foreign

Prior was -155.5 billion This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

People’s Bank of China USD/CNY reference rate is due around 0115 GMT. The People’s Bank of China (PBOC), China’s central bank, is responsible for setting the daily midpoint of the yuan (also known as renminbi or RMB). The PBOC follows a managed floating exchange rate system that allows the value of the yuan to fluctuate

Barclays has cut their 2025 target for the benchmark US index to 5,900 was previously at 6,600 Analysts say the ‘bear case’ is as low as 4400 bull case is 6700 Citing: tariffs deteriorating economic data will be tough for stocks to work versus deteriorating consumer sentiment, lower growth, higher inflation and tariffs industrials look

The European Commission has advised that every citizen should stockpile enough food to be self-sufficient for at least 72 hours in case of crisis, the European Commission. The FT had the report, gated. POLITICO gave the heads up a little earlier, prior to the EU statement: Preparedness Union Strategy Every citizen should stockpile enough food

Prior +3.6% Broad money growth in the euro area continues to hold up with the ECB still on a more easy policy path. Loans to households also were seen up 1.5% compared to 1.3% in January and loans to non-financial institutions were also up 2.2% compared to 2.0% in January. This article was written by

The S&P500 yesterday had a rough day as it got hit by a wave of selling basically for the entire session with just a lil bounce before the market close. The move seemed more of a technical pullback caused by the underlying uncertainty ahead of April 2 rather than something else as we got the

Goldman Sachs is maintaining a constructive view on Chinese equities, citing “more fundamental upside” ahead, but cautions that the recent rally may soon lose momentum. In a note published Wednesday, the investment bank said it expects the bull market to slow in the near term, with profit-taking pressures likely to emerge as U.S.-China policy and

This report is more useful when it’s released before Canadian retail sales but RBC is out today with its latest data on Canadian cardholder spending. Canada’s largest bank said card transactions fell 0.2% in February, which is largely consistent with the -0.4% decline in the advance retail sales report. Sales were influenced by poor February

China data: January – February Industrial profits -0.3% y/y (prior -3.3%) A fall in profits (a three-year trend) and tariffs ramping higher is not good combination. China tends to announce January / February data as one, to account for the moveable Lunar New year holidays each year. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at

Daiwa Capital Markets has lowered its price target on Tesla to $300 from $420, reflecting growing concerns about the company’s profit margins and slowing demand growth in key markets. In a note to clients, the brokerage said that intensifying competition, particularly in China and Europe, along with price cuts across Tesla’s lineup, are likely to

This comes from the folks at eFX Nomura: Retains Long JPY Bias Amid Tariff Uncertainty and Domestic Policy Sensitivity By eFXdata Synopsis: Nomura maintains a long JPY bias, citing heightened uncertainty around US tariff policy, the Bank of Japan’s sensitivity to yen weakness, and domestic political focus on inflation control. While the BoJ is not

Daiwa cuts Tesla price target to $300, citing margin pressure and demand concerns Japan warns of “significant impact” from new U.S. tariffs European Central Bank’s Buch, de Guindos, Escrivsa, Schnabel all speak on Thursday China to extend stamp duty relief for offshore trading through end-2027 Bank of England Monetary Policy Committee member Dhingra speaks on

2030 GMT/1630 US Eastern time: Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond President Thomas Barkin delivers the H. Parker Willis Lecture in Political Economy at Washington and Lee University, in Lexington, Va 2030 GMT/1630 US Eastern time: Federal Reserve Bank of Boston President Susan Collins speaks on the economy and monetary policy in a fireside chat sponsored

The Trump’s announcement of 25% tariffs on auto imports yesterday weighed on the euro as traders increased slightly their bets for more ECB easing this year on the expected hit on the European economy. The EU-US yield differentials have been moving more in favour of the US in the recent weeks as the spike following

The Dallas Fed Energy Survey is a quarterly survey conducted by the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas that provides insights into the oil and gas sector, particularly in the Eleventh Federal Reserve District, which includes Texas, northern Louisiana, and southern New Mexico — a key region for U.S. energy production. The latest survey was released

A rate cut pause in April should be on the table. Inflation risks might be on the upside. The likelihood of a rate hike in 2025 is limited. Tariffs would be bad for growth and inflation. ECB is facing a difficult balancing act. Wunsch has been warning about cutting rates too fast as the risks

After some consolidation just above $3,000 since last week, gold is starting to ratchet higher again in trading today. With broader markets caught in a wave of uncertainty on what will happen with Trump’s tariffs, gold continues to shine brightly and is keeping bid once more. The brief pause above $3,000 saw price action folding

The UK is in intensive tariff talks with the Trump administration. I believe in free and open trade. I want UK-US trade flows to continue to be strong. Trade frictions will make it harder to grow the economy. We don’t want to see additional tariffs. I would like to see tariffs between countries fall. That

But uncertainty is really high and geopolitics is the main cause of that The odds of a rate cut next month are at ~76% now. So far, policymakers are not decisively offering much to convince that they might hold off from cutting again. And Kazāks’ headline remark above exemplifies the narrative at the moment. This

0830 GMT/0430 US Eastern time: Bank of England Monetary Policy Committee member Swati Dhingra takes part in a panel discussion at the South African Reserve Bank subject matter is lessons from the UK about inflation-targeting in the post-pandemic period Dhingra tends towards the dovish end of the BoE MPC spectrum. At last week’s meeting she

Westpac economists are confident the Reserve Bank of Australia will leave the cash rate unchanged at its next policy meeting on 1 April, describing the gathering as a “dead rubber” in the context of the broader monetary policy outlook. While the bank maintains its call for a rate cut in May, it argues that consecutive

I posted on Morgan Stanley boosting its China view earlier: Morgan Stanley upgrades China equities – both mainland and Hong Kong Adding a little more now, their view on the currency. Morgan Stanley has reiterated that currency strength plays a critical role in the performance of Chinese equities, particularly in offshore markets. In a recent

This was telegraphed but Pres. Trump is saying: Going to be making a special announcement on cars Going to go in terms on cars This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

The People’s Bank of China (PBOC), China’s central bank, is responsible for setting the daily midpoint of the yuan (also known as renminbi or RMB). The PBOC follows a managed floating exchange rate system that allows the value of the yuan to fluctuate within a certain range, called a “band,” around a central reference rate,

The firm’s month-end model is signaling strong dollar demand against all the major currencies while its quarter-end model is signaling moderate dollar strength to end Q1 trading. They do note that both models are using the same framework and with the latter, it is also predicting strong USD demand against the EUR for quarter-end. Against

German DAX futures -0.9% UK FTSE futures -0.3% This follows the selloff from yesterday with European indices now poised for a down week. The negative mood comes despite a more muted tone in US futures so far today, as well as the selling in Wall Street yesterday owing largely to tech shares. But this story

Central bank is focused on more price-based policy tools China has sufficient room for monetary policy Will cut interest rates, RRR at appropriate time Will use various policy tools to keep liquidity ample This continues the rhetoric from just before the National People’s Congress earlier this month. The Chinese central bank continues to allude to

Trump’s added 25% tariff announcement earlier: Trump slaps a 25% tariff on all cars not made in the USA The USD has risen after Trump’s announcement of 25% tariff on all autos not made in USA Recap of Trump’s 25% auto tariff on foreign-made cars starting April 2nd Trump has allowed a one-month tariff exemption

This reinforces the note from Barclays here. According to Deutsche, the dollar stands poised to benefit going into month-end but especially against the NOK. The firm argues to fade any USD/NOK weakness leading up to the month-end trade date itself as positioning flows may lead to outsized moves in the pair. They note that the

The investment flow data from Japn is unlikely to move yen upon release. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

Coming up from the European Central Bank on Thursday, March 27, 2025: 0900 GMT/0500 US Eastern time Introductory statement by ECB board member Claudia M Buch at ECON Hearing before the Committee on Economic and Monetary Affairs (ECON) of the European Parliament in Brussels, Belgium Buch is Chair of the ECB Supervisory Board 0900 GMT/0500

“If the European Union works with Canada in order to do economic harm to the USA, large scale Tariffs, far larger than currently planned, will be placed on them both in order to protect the best friend that each of those two countries has ever had!” This will at least keep a lid on any

TD Securities notes that the Shanghai Gold Exchange has admitted four major Chinese life insurance companies as members under a new pilot program, potentially paving the way for a significant surge in institutional gold demand. The inclusion grants these insurers access to purchase gold directly through the exchange—marking a notable shift in policy that could

Pres. Trump: Going to go with tariffs and cars Treasury Sec. Bessent: Trump would not hesitate to raise sanctions on Russia Politico: EU tariffs could be as high as 20-25% All the tariff talk is a distraction from the world-changing shifts in AI and robotics Canadian consumer spending held up ok in February – RBC

From GME’s announcement: GameStop expects to use the net proceeds from the offering for general corporate purposes, including the acquisition of Bitcoin in a manner consistent with GameStop’s Investment Policy. This was flagged last week: GameStop to invest corporate cash in bitcoin This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

Japan’s government has expressed serious concern over the potential fallout from newly announced U.S. tariffs, warning of risks to both bilateral economic ties and global trade stability. Chief Cabinet Secretary Yoshimasa Hayashi said on Thursday that Tokyo is closely monitoring the situation following President Donald Trump’s announcement of additional tariffs. Speaking at a press briefing,

Treasury Sec. Bessent is speaking on Fox news and says: Pres. Trump would not hesitate to raise sanctions on Russia if it were to give him a negotiating advantage This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

News from earlier is here: Trump slaps a 25% tariff on all cars not made in the USA The USD has risen after Trump’s announcement of 25% tariff on all autos not made in USA Recap of Trump’s 25% auto tariff on foreign-made cars starting April 2nd Now hearing that ther will be a 1

Still waiting on Trump’s auto tariff announcement. It was due at 4pm US Eastern time. Trump a little behind schedule. Stay tuned! This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

Trump slaps a 25% tariff on all cars not made in the USA (is in addition to tariffs already in place,) Trump says others will come into the USA and build plants an aide adds there will be tariffs on light trucks also will be another round of tariffs on April 2 people will be

Goldman Sachs has raised its year-end 2025 gold price forecast to USD 3,300 per ounce, up from a previous estimate of USD 3,100. The investment bank also widened its projected trading range to USD 3,250–3,520, citing continued strong demand from Asian central banks. According to Goldman, large-scale gold purchases by these central banks are likely

This week, we got another dose of the leaps that are imminent in AI but at the same time, the market signals are being lost. Microsoft is cutting AI spending and that’s leading to a heavy selloff today in AI names with Nvidia down 6.3%. The driver of this is because AI is becoming cheaper

Some Geopolitical news: Ukraine’s Zelenskyy expects US to ensure a cease-fire is without conditions despite Russian claims. Sanctions against Russia should remain in place Meanwhile France’s Macron says Russia reinterpreting what was agreed in cease-fire talks France to provide military support to Ukraine of EUR $2B Wants to mobilize partners on Thursday to increase military

Good morning, afternoon and evening all. Any charts, technical analysis, trade ideas, thoughts, views, ForexLive traders would like to share and discuss with fellow ForexLive traders, please do so: This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

EURUSD has broken below the swing area between 1.07609 and 1.07767, pressured by renewed tariff headlines and inflation concerns, which were echoed in more hawkish comments from Fed’s Musalem. The decline also takes price further below the 100-hour moving average at 1.0812 (and moving lower), reinforcing the bearish momentum as sellers continue to press lower.

The market is reluctant to fully embrace it but the picture around April 2 tariffs is improving. Late yesterday, a report from the Toronto Star said Canada would be at the bottom end of tariffs. Mexico is presumably in the same boat, given it’s on the same trade agreement. In addition, Trump said this week

The Fed’s Musalem is a hawk so it’s not shocking that he is mentioning rate hikes but it’s the first utterance of the H-word in the current cycle. He said that he is wary of assuming all tariff-related price increases will be temporary as second-round effects could be more-persistent. If second round effects become apparent

For all the tariff talk this year, there is a compelling argument that all the weakness in US stock markets is really just Mag7 euphoria fading, in part because of confusion about how AI will play out. I’m a big believer but there will be an ebb and flow and this might be the flow

Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt, in today’s briefing confirmed that Trump will announce auto tariffs at 4 pm ET today. Reports on what is coming are scarce. It’s not at all clear who these will target, when the will go into effect and if they will also be on auto parts. The market has tilted on

Various indicators show underlying inflation moving towards 2% inflation sustainably Some effects of monetary policy steps appear with a lag Want to scrutinise how policy decisions so far could affect the economy Neutral rate is an important means in deciding monetary policy But need to take into account features of various data, models, and assumptions

Generally agreed that new data had shifted the balance, with somewhat less risk of lower inflation outcomes Would probably have left rates unchanged if not for tariff risks A 25 bps cut would provide some help to Canadians to manage the uncertainty around tariffs Some officials suggested keep rates unchanged until there was more clarity

Headlines: UK February CPI +2.8% vs +3.0% y/y expected Sterling eases after cooler UK inflation but outlook remains challenging Traders increase bets for BoE rate cut at the May meeting after the UK CPI release ECB’s Villeroy: Trump tariffs would have limited impact on euro area inflation Fed’s Goolsbee: We’re no longer on the golden

St. Louis Fed’s Musalem: Growth does appear to have slowed, surveys point to caution among businesses and consumers Patience with current policy appropriate as Fed gathers evidence inflation is returning to target Risks that inflation will stall above 2% or move higher in the near term appear to have increased Wary of assuming all tariff-related

tradeCompass – Gold Futures Analysis for Today Live price of Gold Futures (GC1!) at the time of this analysis: $3,026 Gold Futures Analysis: Bullish Bias Above $3,024 At the time of writing, gold futures are trading at $3,026, and the current gold analysis for today sets a bullish bias above $3,024. That level is significant

The latest from the WSJ ahead of today’s tariffs: The White House is also weighing plans to impose tariffs on finished vehicles coming into the U.S. but not automotive parts, according to Sen. Bernie Moreno (R., Ohio) and other people familiar with the discussions. Moreno also revealed more of Trump’s tariff strategy: Trump’s economic team

It’s tough to get comfortable ahead of April 2 even as the Trump administration dials down tariff threats. There are many ways this can go wrong and after the leaks in the Atlantic, you get the sense this administration is making it up as they go. The latest leg lower came after a Bloomberg report

Growth recovers to average around 1.75% over the rest of the decade OBR: underlying fiscal outlook has deteriorated since October if global trade disputes escalate to include 20 pct pt rises in tariffs between the USA and the rest of the world, this could reduce UK GDP by a peak of 1% and reduce current

USDCHF continues to trade within a well-defined range between 0.8794 and 0.8848, with price action currently consolidating just below the top of that band. Earlier today, the pair found support at the 100-hour moving average (0.8827), helping to maintain a modest bullish bias in the short term. However, momentum now faces a critical test. The

High yield 4.910% WI level at the time of the auction 4.095% Tail +0.5 basis points versus six-month average of -0.1 basis points Bid to cover 2.33X versus six-month average of 2.40X Directs (domestic demand) 10.97% versus six-month average of 18.9% Indirects (international demand) Dealers 13.2% versus six-month average of 11.9% This article was written

Rabobank are expecting EUR/USD to head up to 1.12, on a one-year outlook. Analysts at the bank say that the immediate rally in EUR/USD has come off the boil, but the move unto below has 1.0800 has seen buyers emerge. They add they see some near-term, 1- to 3-month, weakness before it resumes its climb.

Japan Services Producer Price Index (February 2025) comes via the Bank of Japan: +3% y/y expected +3.1%, prior also +3.1% for the m/m comes in at no change, 0% prior -0.5% This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

There is a lot of uncertainty about tariffs A lot of the sentiment shift is about tariffs It’s conceivable the hit to confidence could be bigger than the tariffs themselves The good news is that there are resolutions of trade uncertainty and confidence could be restored I take very seriously the hit to confidence, the

The major European indices are closing mostly lower. A snapshot of the closing levels shows: German DAX, -1.14% France’s CAC -0.96% UK’s FTSE 100 +0.30% Spain’s Ibex -0.39% Italy’s FTSE MIB -0.83% As London/European traders and for the exit, the broader US stock indices are sharply lower led by the NASDAQ index with a decline

Prior +0.8% Overall, the Spanish economy grew by 3.2% in 2024. Once again, it remains of the brighter spots in the euro area economy amid the struggles in Germany and France in particular. This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

The NASDAQ index is down sharply. The current price is down -300 points or -1.66% at 17969.44. The low price reached 17959.93. Shares of Nvidia and Tesla are leading the downside. Tessa shares are down -4.78% while Nvidia shares are down -5.52%. The decline in NVidia follows growing uncertainty around it’s AI chip business in

The Atlanta Fed GDPNow growth estimate for Q2 growth came in at -1.8%, unchanged from the previous estimate. In their own words: The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the first quarter of 2025 is -1.8 percent on March 26, unchanged from March 18 after rounding. After recent releases

NZDUSD is trading in a well-defined technical range as traders weigh directional cues. In the Asia-Pacific session, the pair once again found buyers ahead of the rising 200-bar moving average on the 4-hour chart, which currently sits near 0.5708. Today’s low came in at 0.5713, just above that level—echoing similar buying interest seen on Monday

Pres. Trump said yesterday that Canada is “stepped it up a lot”. That and some concessions on tariffs has helped the CAD leading to a lower USDCAD in the process. Technically, the USDCAD is coming under renewed pressure after breaking below the key support range between 1.4268 and 1.4471—a zone that had confined most of

tradeCompass – Silver Futures Analysis for Today Live price: 34,315 Silver Futures Analysis: Bullish Momentum Building Above 34,275 At the time of this silver futures analysis, price is trading at 34,315 and pushing directly against the Value Area High (VAH) of the current session. The technical outlook is bullish as long as silver holds above

The U.S. stock market today displayed a stark contrast in sector performances, with technology facing significant challenges while oil and financials seemed to gain investor favor. The market dynamics epitomize a shift in sentiment as investors recalibrate their portfolios amid mixed economic signals. 📉 Tech Sector: A broad sell-off The technology sector experienced broad declines,

It’s been a struggle for crude so far this year but WTI is showing some signs of life. WTI crude is up $0.97 today to $69.97 ahead of US EIA weekly oil inventory data at the bottom of the hour. Private weekly crude oil inventory was released late yesterday and showed: Crude -4600K Gasoline -3300K

Changes in global environment will be challenging for China Reform measures are needed for boosting consumption Incomes and confidence are crucial for boosting consumer demand The narrative is building on this front with many calling for Beijing to step up support, especially on services consumption. From last week: China economists urge Beijing to continue ramping

UK yields initially rose on the details of the budget but there has been a re-think in the market, or a ‘buy the fact’ reaction to all the angst about the deficit situation. My suspicion is that there are still many generals ‘fighting the last war’ in regards to the Liz Truss fiasco, and fearful

The key date for the markets is next Wednesday when the US will finally unveil the tariffs plan. Trump has been calling it “Liberation Day” and that will likely be the same for the markets as uncertainty has been historically high. The expectations for tariffs rates is around 9% for universal and 50% on China.

The United States’ fiscal position is continuing to deteriorate, with Moody’s Ratings warning that rising interest payments and widening deficits are eroding the country’s debt affordability. In its latest report, Moody’s said the fiscal strength of the US has “deteriorated further” since the sovereign outlook was cut to negative in late 2023, and that even

The Smart Way to Trade Reversals How to spot real turning points — not just dead-cat bounces. “Not every dip is a buying opportunity. Smart traders wait for signs of strength — not just weakness fading.” Why Reversals Are Tempting — and Dangerous Everyone wants to buy the bottom. But most failed trades come from

A White House official cited by CNBC said the President may not take all of the non-tariff barriers into account when setting tariff rates. He specifically mentioned VAT taxes, which I take as a good sign. He also mentioned currency devaulation and wage suppression. We saw reports like that on the weekend, though less detailed

How to Track Earnings Season the Smart (and Simple) Way A guide to cutting through the noise and finding the real opportunities. “Earnings season isn’t just headlines. It’s where real trades and long-term ideas are born.” Why Earnings Season Matters (Even for Long-Term Investors) Whether you’re a swing trader or a long-term holder, earnings season

Bloomberg reports that Trump may expedite the timeline for imposing tariffs on U.S. copper imports. Initially, the Commerce Department was granted 270 days from February 2025 to investigate and report on the potential tariffs. However, recent developments suggest that these tariffs could be implemented within weeks, significantly ahead of the original deadline. ​ This acceleration

Core annual inflation is estimated to ease a little to 3.6%, down from 3.7% in January. But overall, that’s still a high figure that won’t provide the BOE with much comfort. Meanwhile, headline annual inflation is expected to remain unchanged at 3.0%. As energy inflation becomes less of a drag, it will be a tricky

Prior was +1448K Gasoline -1446K vs -1830K expected Distillates -421K vs -1568K expected Refinery utilization +0.1% vs +0.5% expected WTI crude oil was up 99-cents ahead of this report and just below $70/barrel. This report is good news on the surface but I think yesterday’s EIA data raised expectations. It showed: Crude -4600K Gasoline -3300K

The EURUSD has extended to a new session low and is now testing a familiar technical area between 1.07609 and 1.07767 — a swing zone initially carved out in October and November (see red numbered circles on the chart) and retested on March 6 before moving to the high from last week. This area has

Goldman Sachs is out with a note saying that high inflation and high survey-based inflation expectations raise the bar for possible rate cuts this year. They add that survey data are muddied by respondents’ political leanings, but still can’t be ignored. They also keep a door open for cuts saying that deteriorating economic indicators could

I got a chance to read The Atlantic report about the editor-in-chief being added to the White House group chat. It’s a fiasco but I don’t want to weigh in on the politics because there’s no investment strategy or macro takeaway from that angle. Where I think something revealing (and useful) taking place is the

Building Your Watchlist for the Next Market Pullback How to prepare now — so you’re ready when prices drop later. “Opportunities don’t go to those who guess the bottom. They go to those who are ready.” Why Watchlists Matter More in Downturns Most investors react to pullbacks with panic — or indecision. But prepared investors

1000 GMT/0600 US Eastern time: Bank of France Governor Francois Villeroy de Galhau is to be interviewed by the lower house’s finance commission about the economy There are some wavering comments coming from ECB officials about the likely hood of another rate cut at the next meeting. We may get more clues today. The later,

Prior was +3.2% Nondefense capital goods orders ex-air -0.3% vs +0.2% expected Prior nondefense capital goods orders ex-air +0.8% (revised to +0.9%) Ex transport +0.7% vs +0.2% expected Ex defense +0.8% vs +3.5% prior This is a solid number but the core orders are weaker than the headline suggests. Still, that’s coming off a prior

Industrial production has been a source of strength in economic data so far this year and that’s been one of the main data points used as a push-back against slowing consumer and business surveys. Today we get a forward-looking industrial indicator with the February durable goods orders report. In truth, this indicator hasn’t been a

The EURUSD is mired in a very narrow trading range awaiting the next shove. The USDJPY moved higher on comments from BOJ Ueda that food inflation was temporary and not a reason to tighten policy. However, the price has come back down in the European session after his chirping. The GBPUSD broke below the 100

Fundamental Overview The USD got a bit of a boost on Monday following the better than expected US PMIs although the gains were not widespread. We’ve also seen some bids in the greenback yesterday following the weak US Consumer Confidence where inflation expectations jumped to yet another high. Overall, the market is still pricing between

Good morning, afternoon and evening all. Any charts, technical analysis, trade ideas, thoughts, views, ForexLive traders would like to share and discuss with fellow ForexLive traders, please do so: This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

Buffett on Circles of Competence and Selectivity Why knowing your limits is more powerful than pretending to know everything. “The most important thing in evaluating businesses is figuring out where your circle of competence is and staying inside of it.” — Warren Buffett What Is a Circle of Competence? It’s the set of industries, businesses,

Goldman Sachs warns of potential tariff shock on April 2 Nasdaq leads as US stocks post moderate gains Trump: Mexico and Canada have stepped it up a lot The lessons from The Atlantic leak: In a transactional world, leverage is all the matters Trump: I would like to see interest rates come down Crude oil

Missed a Big Move? Here’s What to Do Next How smart investors respond when they didn’t buy early — without chasing or panicking. “You don’t need to catch every move. You just need to catch the right ones — at the right time.” Why It’s Normal to Miss Big Moves It happens to everyone: You

Buffett on Cash, Patience, and Optionality Why waiting is a superpower — and how to turn inactivity into an investing edge. “The trick is, when there’s nothing to do, do nothing.” — Warren Buffett Cash Isn’t Fear — It’s Firepower Buffett is famous for holding billions in cash. Not because he’s indecisive, but because he

Fundamental Overview The USD got a bit of a boost on Monday following the better than expected US PMIs although the gains were not widespread. We’ve also seen some bids in the greenback yesterday following the weak US Consumer Confidence where inflation expectations jumped to yet another high. Overall, the market is still pricing between

How to Use Technicals & Fundamentals Together Why smart investors don’t choose between them — they combine both. “Charts show the timing. Fundamentals show the reason. Together, they give you the edge.” Why It’s a Mistake to Pick Just One Some investors are die-hard fundamentalists. Others swear by the chart and ignore the balance sheet.

Fundamental Overview The USD got a bit of a boost on Monday following the better than expected US PMIs although the gains were not widespread. We’ve also seen some bids in the greenback yesterday following the weak US Consumer Confidence where inflation expectations jumped to yet another high. Overall, the market is still pricing between

M6 earthquake Chile, Tarapaca region 119 km ENE of Alto Hospicio, Chile Depth 85 km EMSC maps Chile is the world’s largest producer and exporter of copper. Earlier: Copper futures extend to new all time highs on tariff fears This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

Rate cuts by year-end Fed: 62 bps (85% probability of no change at the upcoming meeting) Following the weak US consumer confidence report, traders increased the easing bets from 59 bps to 62 bps. ECB: 51 bps (78% probability of rate cut at the upcoming meeting) BoE: 45 bps (54% probability of rate cut at

Why Warren Buffett Says “Never Lose Money” — And What He Really Means A deeper look at one of the most quoted — and misunderstood — rules in investing. “Rule No. 1: Never lose money. Rule No. 2: Never forget Rule No. 1.” — Warren Buffett What “Never Lose Money” Actually Means Buffett isn’t saying

Trump will be interviewed at 2100 US Eastern time (0100 GMT) by one of his favoured outlets, Newsmax. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

1400 GMT/1000 US Eastern time Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis President Neel Kashkari hosts “Fed Listens” conversation on labor market conditions, inflation, and how the Fed communicates and transmits monetary policy before the Detroit Lakes Regional Chamber of Commerce 1710 GMT/1310 US Eastern time Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis President Alberto Musalem speaks and

This is interesting. Goldman Sachs expects market growth for rack-level AI servers to slow due to factors like the effects of the product transition period, ongoing supply and demand uncertainty, and increasing production complexity. As a result, it has revised its shipment forecasts for 2025 and 2026 downward—from 31,000 units and 66,000 units to 19,000

S&P ratings analysts more to come U.S. economic outlook sees growth losing steam amid shifting policies Forecast inflation to remain closer to 3.0% in 2025 as tariffs increase prices along domestic supply chain & for end consumers Comes amid shifting policy mix that is altering economic outlook, with balance of risks to our growth forecast

There is arguably just one to take note of, as highlighted in bold. That being for EUR/USD at the 1.0760 level. It isn’t one that holds any technical significance as the pair is continuing to keep pressured to the downside for now. Sellers remain in near-term control but the big level to watch on the

The momentum of the past two days of trading didn’t entire fade but it was slower going after a poor US consumer confidence report and as we stumble one day closer to Trump’s April 2 “liberation day”. S&P 500 +0.15% Nasdaq Comp +0.5% DJIA flat Russell 2000 -0.5% Toronto TSX Comp +0.2% I take some

Prior -6.2% Market index 247.5 vs 252.5 prior Purchase index 155.8 vs 154.7 prior Refinance index 752.4 vs 794.4 prior 30-year mortgage rate 6.71% vs 6.72% prior Mortgage applications declined in the past week but it owes mostly to a continued pullback in refinancing activity. Purchase activity was actually stronger but only marginally. Meanwhile, the

Says Ukraine-US talks in Riyadh were successful Ukraine is ready for a new meeting to work out details of a truce Separately, Russian officials say the Zaporizhzhia nuclear plant is Russian and won’t be transferred to anyone. The plant is near the front lines and has been the subject of considerable nuclear and attack worries.

A 25% increase in US tariffs in Q2 would have limited impact on euro area inflation But it could reduce GDP by 0.3% over the course of the full year Trump is destabilising the multi-lateral system That increases risks for financial order and also the climate Trump’s strategy is “lose-lose” in the short-term as it

February month inflation data is due from Australia today. Its expected to be steady at 2.5% y/y. The Reserve Bank of Australia target band is 2 to 3%, and the Bank and government have agreed to target 2.5%. On Tuesday evening Australian time the budget was announced in Australia. ICYMI: Australia brings out new tax

Swiss investor sentiment declined in March with UBS noting that investors are growing more cautious on the outlook for the economy. Well, increased global uncertainty would do that I guess. This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

The People’s Bank of China (PBOC), China’s central bank, is responsible for setting the daily midpoint of the yuan (also known as renminbi or RMB). The PBOC follows a managed floating exchange rate system that allows the value of the yuan to fluctuate within a certain range, called a “band,” around a central reference rate,

UBS strategist Bhanu Baweja has issued a stark warning for equity markets, forecasting that the S&P 500 could drop to 5,300 points—an 8% fall from current levels. While that might seem surprising given the index’s strong performance in recent months, Baweja believes the market is underestimating growing headwinds from the real economy. At the core

GameStop said it will add bitcoin as a treasury reserve asset. The company had cash and cash equivalents of $4.76 billion as of the end of Q4 GameStop board has approved the addition of bitcoin as a treasury reserve asset. will use a portion of its cash or future debt or equity issuances to be

Bank of Japan Governor Ueda spoke: Bank of Japan Governor Ueda again – If prices overshoot will take stronger steps BoJ Gov Ueda again: If food inflation is temporary, shouldn’t respond with monetary policy Bank Japan Governor Ueda says cost-push inflation factors likely to gradually dissipate Bank of Japan Governor Ueda says expects underlying inflation

tradeCompass – Nasdaq Futures Analysis for Today Live price of NQ at the time of this analysis: 20,488 Nasdaq Futures Analysis: Bullish Bias Above 20,503 As of this Nasdaq futures analysis, NQ (Nasdaq futures) is trading at 20,491, with today’s VWAP at 20,498 and the psychological round number of 20,500 directly overhead. These levels converge

February 2025 monthly inflation CPI data from Australia Comes in at 2.4% y/y expected 2.5%, prior 2.5% Trimmed mean 2.7% y/y prior: 2.8% That headline result is encouraging. Its under the median estimate, under the previous month’s result, and under the mid-point of the Reserve Bank of Australia’s 2-3% target band. and the same as

Earlier: Trump may implement copper tariffs within weeks More: Not many exceptions to April 2 tariffs All we are doing is reciprocal I’ll likely to be more lenient than reciprocate On off on off on off …. continues This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

Bank of Japan Governor Ueda (Headlines via Reuters): If price risks overshoot our expectations, we will take stronger steps to adjust degree of monetary support Japan’s economy is in state of inflation, when judging from recent movements in CPI In judging whether underlying inflation hits 2%, one factor we are looking at is whether recent

Fundamental Overview The USD got a bit of a boost on Monday following the better than expected US PMIs although the gains were not widespread. We’ve also seen some bids in the greenback yesterday following the weak US Consumer Confidence where inflation expectations jumped to yet another high. Overall, the market is still pricing between

We’re now entering into a different chapter There’s a lot of dust in the air If market-based long-run inflation expectations continue as they have recently, I would view that as a major red flag area of concern Must address the situation if investor expectations start to converge to that of households Interest rates should be

Bank of Japan Governor Ueda more to come Recent high inflation due largely to lagged effect of past rises in import costs, recent acceleration in food price rises Such cost-push factors likely to gradually dissipate Underlying inflation likely to gradually converge towards our 2% target even when temporary boost from food inflation disappears There is

Prior +3.0% Core CPI +3.5% vs +3.6% y/y expected Prior +3.7% The readings are a surprise to the downside even as services inflation held unchanged at 5.0% in core terms on the month. Instead, goods inflation was the one leading the drop with a fall from 1.0% in January to 0.8% in February. The former

The Toronto Star reports — citing sources — that Canada ‘could be on the lower end’ of the April 2 tariffs. Nothing is guaranteed Trump may impose three escalating levels of tariffs Despite a recent news report the tiered-approach is not on the table, the sources said it aligns with the government’s understanding of what’s

Morgan Stanley has upgraded both the MSCI China and Hang Seng indices to equal weight, pointing to what it sees as a structural regime shift in Chinese equities—particularly in the offshore segment. The bank argues that after years of deflationary drag, a recovery in return on equity (ROE) and valuations is taking hold. Key to

The main event today was the release of the UK CPI report. The data missed expectations although services inflation remains sticky around 5% which is what the BoE is more concerned with. Looking ahead, we don’t have much on the agenda today with just the US Durable Goods Orders data as the only highlight. This

Eurostoxx +0.1% Germany DAX +0.2% France CAC 40 flat UK FTSE +0.2% Spain IBEX -0.2% Italy FTSE MIB +0.3% S&P 500 futures are down 0.1%, so that’s sort of balancing out the mood and keeping things more tentative to start the session. Once again, investors will have to look to Wall Street for the next

Cable is now down to 1.2908, lower by 0.3% on the day, following the softer UK CPI report here. The pair was trading around 1.2940 before the inflation numbers with traders pricing in ~45% odds of a rate cut for May. On the latter, we’re seeing traders step up their pricing to ~55% odds currently.

After finishing yesterday with slight gains, US futures are more muted today once again. Investors are still holding out some caution as all eyes are on Trump’s tariffs implementation next week. Here’s a catch up of the headlines from overnight: Goldman Sachs puts a number on what level of tariffs is expected Goldman Sachs warns

People’s Bank of China USD/CNY reference rate is due around 0115 GMT. The People’s Bank of China (PBOC), China’s central bank, is responsible for setting the daily midpoint of the yuan (also known as renminbi or RMB). The PBOC follows a managed floating exchange rate system that allows the value of the yuan to fluctuate

German DAX futures +0.1% UK FTSE futures +0.1% US futures are also looking rather muted, with S&P 500 futures keeping flattish at the moment. Trump tariffs will continue to dictate risk sentiment ahead of the 2 April implementation. But investors look to be holding some cautious optimism, as evident with the modest gains in the

ECB should now focus more on inflation expectations than estimated neutral level in setting rates As inflation falls and rates near neutral, uncertainty becomes more of a problem Full transcript (may be gated) Just some token remarks there by Panetta as he discusses more about the neutral rate, with the ECB supposedly gradually approaching that.

That’s a great sign for Canada and Mexico and sentiment and general as that’s a big part of the US trade puzzle. This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

Bank of Japan Governor Ueda is serving up some reasons to sell JPY today! We will make a judgment call by looking at various indicators, in determining whether underlying inflation has hit our target Just looking at single indicator won’t be sufficient in grasping underlying inflation, which indicator to focus on could change gradually during

Despite recent media reports suggesting a softer stance from the Trump administration on tariffs, Goldman Sachs is urging caution. The investment bank believes markets may be too optimistic—and that could lead to a nasty surprise. According to Goldman economists, tariffs have long been a key bargaining chip for the administration, and they expect officials will

Bank of Japan Governor Ueda: Japan’s economy recovering moderately albeit with some weaknesses Japan’s economy likely to continue growing above potential Expect underlying inflation to accelerate gradually Uncertainty surrounding Japan’s economy, prices remains high Expect to keep raising interest rates if economy, prices move in line with our forecasts made in quarterly outlook report Japan’s

I have April 2 tariffs set There was no classified information on Signal chat Tariffs will create more jobs These are the usual talking points. This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

Crude oil futures for May delivery slipped $0.11 to settle at $69.00 per barrel on Tuesday, marking the first decline after 4 consecutive days of gains. The modest pullback followed reports of a ceasefire agreement between Ukraine and Russia covering the Black Sea. However, broader supply concerns remain intact, particularly after former President Donald Trump

Via oilprice.com: Expectations I had seen centred on: Headline crude -2.6mn barrels Distillates -2.2 mn bbls Gasoline -3.3 mn — This data point is from a privately-conducted survey by the American Petroleum Institute (API). It’s a survey of oil storage facilities and companies The official report is due Wednesday morning US time. The two reports

Bitcoin moved lower earlier today, but buyers stepped in at the 200-bar moving average on the 4-hour chart, currently at $86,703. Sellers attempted to push the price below that level, but momentum quickly faded, indicating that short-term control remains with the buyers. A sustained move below the 200-bar MA would be needed to shift the

Copper futures have extended to a new record high on the Comex exchange today, surging to $5.2145 per pound, driven by fears Pres. Trump may impose steep tariffs on imports of the metal. The rally was also fueled by a report that Glencore Plc. temporarily halted copper shipments from Chile due to a furnace issue,

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He isn’t giving much away here as the market is pricing 1.97% in Sept but bottoming shortly afterwards. No central bankers want to give anything away until they hear about tariffs. This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

This is the lowest reading since May 2020 General activity index: -17.5 vs -12.9 prior New orders index: -19.5 vs -1.3 prior — lowest since April 2023 Full-time employment index: -7.5 vs 2.5 prior Prices paid index: 36.0 vs 23.4 prior Regional activity index: -32.5 vs -13.1 prior The six month index fell to -19.8

Signal Scandal Rocks U.S. Intel – What Investors Should Watch as Trust in National Security Protocols Wavers Improper use of encrypted chats by top officials raises concerns over governance risk, internal dysfunction, and policy volatility. What Happened at the Senate Hearing Now A heated exchange during the Senate Intelligence Committee hearing revealed that senior Trump-era

Earlier today, I highlighted a Goldman Sachs note suggesting that market participants were expecting a 9% reciprocal tariff rate. Now, Deutsche Bank is out with a survey of its own list of 400 investors and they estimate 50% tariffs on China and a tariff of slightly below 10% on everyone else. However they also try

Results of the sale just after the 1 pm ET deadline. Prior was 4.169% Bid to cover 2.66 vs 2.56 prior I thought we might see a 4-handle but the combo of the soft consumer confidence data today and worries about tariffs knocked it through the figure. If we get a tolerable tariff solution and

US and Russia agreed to measures for implementing agreement to ban strikes against energy facilities of Russia and Ukraine US will continue facilitating negotiations between both sides US and Ukraine agreed to develop measure for implementing agreement to ban strikes against energy facilities of Russia and Ukraine The momentum towards a ceasefire is slower than