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US stock markets opened strongly to the upside, led by a 1.1% rally in the Russell 2000, but there are signs of fatigue setting in. The Nasdaq opened higher but is now down 0.1% as shares of Nvidia fall 1.4%. It’s been a one-way market since the election and Trump trades — like Tesla — […]

Gold is down another 0.7% today as a firmer dollar and higher yields since the election looks to be weighing. Alternative flows into Trump trades such as Bitcoin and stocks are also arguably in play, with gold not quite favoured as much in that sense. But how are things playing out on the charts? The

Reuters carried the report, ICYMi: Department of Commerce sent a letter to TSMC imposing export restrictions on certain sophisticated chips, of 7 nanometer or more advanced designs, destined for China that power AI accelerator and graphics processing units (GPU), according to a person familiar with the matter. Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co., the world’s largest maker

It’s Veterans Day in the US and Remembrance Day in Canada. It’s one of those holidays that’s not quite a holiday as stock markets will trade normally but the bond market is closed. It’s also one of those holidays where government offices are closed, which means there is no economic data. So it all adds

EURUSD: The EURUSD fell below the triple bottom from three weeks in June between 1.0665 and 1.0670. That opens the door for more downside probing the only levels left from the 2024 trading range was the low from May 1 at 1.0649. Below that, and the lows for the year come in at 1.0600 to

The dollar is trading just a little higher to start the day, seeing slight gains against the euro, pound and franc now. USD/JPY had already been higher since Asia trading here, and is keeping those gains. The pair is up 0.7% to 153.65 currently. Meanwhile, EUR/USD is starting to dip lower to 1.0685 at the

Prior +6.8%New yuan loans ¥0.5 trillionPrior ¥1.59 trillion This brings the year-to-date total for new yuan loans to ¥16.52 trillion, with the October estimate coming in slightly lower than the expected figure of ¥0.7 trillion. Broad money growth is seen rebounding on a year-on-year basis but China will be hoping to translate that to stronger

Today is going to be another synthetic Sunday in terms of data releases as not only we have an empty calendar but we have also the US on holiday. The US stock market will follow regular hours but the bond market will remain closed. The main focus in the markets remains the same: the red

The price of bitcoin is trading to a new fresh session high and is above the $83,000 level. The price is currently trading at $83,050. That’s up about $2625. The high price has reached $83,139. Looking at the hourly chart below, the price extends above a channel high on the run to the upside. That

German DAX futures +0.5%UK FTSE futures +0.5% This comes with US futures also keeping a little higher, up 0.2% currently. For European stocks, they had more of a back and forth week especially the DAX amid the US election results and German government implosion. The push and pull only resulted in the index ending last

Headlines: Dollar stays poised to start the new weekGold pullback might prove to be timely for dip buyersGold Technical Analysis – The Fed might be forced to pause earlier than expectedReminder: It is a partial US market holiday todayWeekly update on interest rate expectationsJapan parliament votes to keep Ishiba as prime ministerPBOC governor will maintain

Fundamental Overview Gold eventually dropped by almost a hundred dollars following Trump’s victory and the red sweep as the market scaled back some more the expected rate cuts in 2025. In fact, right now the market sees basically just two rate cuts in 2025 compared to the Fed’s projections of four. In the bigger picture,

Eurostoxx +0.7%Germany DAX +0.9%France CAC 40 +0.8%UK FTSE +0.6%Spain IBEX +0.7%Italy FTSE MIB +0.9% US futures are also keeping a slightly more optimistic mood for now, continuing the momentum from last week. So, I guess that’s helping. But from a structural perspective, I would still argue that the outlook remains challenging for European indices going

From earlier: Japan Prime Minister Ishiba faces leadership vote in parliament today This comes after the election results last month, which saw Ishiba’s Liberal Democratic Party lose its majority alongside coalition partner Komeito. Ishiba’s re-election is more or less expected, but his tenure as prime minister now will be filled with many hurdles. He will

New Zealand Inflation Forecast for Q4 2024: 2 yrs 2.12%, jumping from the previous quarter prior 2.03% 1 yr 2.05%, contrasts with a drop from the previous quarter survey prior 2.4% NZD/USD hasn’t really moved on the data. The RBNZ is expected to cut its cash rate again at its November 27 meeting. This article

Commerzbank says the scope for the US dollar to rise further is limited, saying Trump’s main macroeconomic impacting police s will likely be weaker than the bluster: import tariffs may well be much less comprehensive than anticipatedon immigration, there will be some deportations but not enough to generate significant wage pressurewhile Trump’s policies are inflationary,

The Wall Street Journal with the article: To offset the potential hit to the already wobbly Chinese economy, the Xi leadership is considering plans to shower American allies in Europe and Asia with tariff cuts, visa exemptions, Chinese investments and other incentives, according to people close to Beijing’s decision-making. The Journal is gated, but in

There is just one to take note of, as highlighted in bold. That being for EUR/USD at the 1.0700 level. The daily lows last week were held by the figure level, so the expiries will add another layer to that as we get the new week underway at least. With the bond market absent to

Japanese lawmakers will vote today, Monday, November 11, 2024, whether Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba remains the country’s Prime Minister. Ishiba called a snap election when he won the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) contest for leadership At that election, the party lost its lower house majority that held since 2012The LDP and coalition partner New Komeito

BTC had a tailwind into the US election, and now after. Trump’s win is being viewed as a major positive. That’s one narrative, there are many others! Update: This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

The Bank of Japan Summary is here from earlier: BOJ Summary (Oct.): Yen’s depreciation has significant effects Reuters have a brief recap up, with the headline: BOJ divided on rate hike timing, October summary shows Highlighting: “The Bank should consider further rate hikes after pausing to assess developments in the U.S. economy,” one member was

Will step up countercyclical adjustmentShould resolutely guard against the risk of exchange rate overshootTo strengthen financial oversight oversight comprehensively to prevent systemic risksWill strengthen consistency of macroeconomic policies to form synergy between monetary and financial policies Nothing too major there and the remarks here aren’t going to soothe investors after the disappointing stimulus announcement from

Domestic sight deposits CHF 455.4 bn vs CHF 447.8 bn prior Swiss sight deposits nudged back up in the past week, returning to levels seen thereabouts over the last few months. There hasn’t been much to it in the trend as of late as seen below: This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

Monday’s economic calendar is light due to a bank holiday in the U.S. for Veterans Day and in Canada for Remembrance Day. On Tuesday, the U.K. will release several key labor market indicators, including the claimant count change, average earnings index m/m and the unemployment rate. Australia will publish its wage price index q/q on

Rate cuts by year-end Fed: 20 bps (82% probability of rate cut at the upcoming meeting) 2025: 82 bps ECB: 28 bps (88% probability of 25 bps rate cut at the upcoming meeting) 2025: 138 bps BoE: 5 bps (78% probability of no change at the upcoming meeting) 2025: 64 bps BoC: 39 bps (58%

Good morning, afternoon and evening all. Any charts, technical analysis, trade ideas, thoughts, views, ForexLive traders would like to share and discuss with fellow ForexLive traders, please do so: This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

Reserve Bank of New Zealand inflation expectations data can move the NZD a little. Keep an eye on the two year horizon. This is the important one for the Reserve Bank of New Zealand. The bank views this as as a reasonable time frame over which its policy changes impact. The Reserve Bank of New

ECB board member Elizabeth McCaul speaking Monday – on supervisionICYMI: US ordered TSMC to halt shipments to China of chips used in AI applicationsChatter around that China is likely to implement stronger fiscal policies in 2025Reserve Bank of New Zealand inflation expectations survey: 2 yr at 2.12% (prior 2.03%)EUR/USD forecast: Trump policies likely to be

Ireland’s central bank governor and hence European Central Bank (ECB) Governing Council member Gabriel Makhlouf spoke on Friday, ICYMI. He emphasized the importance of a careful assessment and maintaining a measured pace of monetary policy easing, suggesting that with the end goal in sight, there’s no need to rush. “It is important to assess conditions

Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis President Neel Kashkari spoke with US media, the “Face the Nation” TV show. Signalling a pause at the December meeting is not off the table with these comments on inflation progress. The economy has remained remarkably strong, not all the way home on inflationThe Fed wants to have confidence inflation

People’s Bank of China USD/CNY reference rate is due around 0115 GMT. The People’s Bank of China (PBOC), China’s central bank, is responsible for setting the daily midpoint of the yuan (also known as renminbi or RMB). The PBOC follows a managed floating exchange rate system that allows the value of the yuan to fluctuate

Morgan Stanley categorizes the Trump administration’s macroeconomic policies into three main areas: tariffs, immigration, and fiscal measures. The report anticipates that tariff policies will be among the first to be implemented. MS model an immediate imposition of 10% global tariffs and 60% China tariffs: core inflation in the U.S. could increase by roughly 0.9 percentage

All I have seen on what’s coming from the European Central Bank is this for McCaul: 0810 GMT / 0310 US Eastern time: Keynote speech by ECB board member Elizabeth McCaul at Malta Financial Services Authority’s (MFSA) Annual Banking Supervision Conference in St. Julian’s, Malta — I did post policy related comments earlier from two

The People’s Bank of China set the onshore yuan (CNY) reference rate for the trading session ahead. USD/CNY is the onshore yuan. Its permitted to trade plus or minus 2% from this daily reference rate.CNH is the offshore yuan. USD /CNH has no restrictions on its trading range.A significantly stronger or weaker rate than expected

This will be in observance of Veterans Day. So, the partial market closure will still likely make for quieter trading overall. But for US stocks, investors will be looking to keep carrying the post-election momentum into the new week. It will be a similar case for Canadian markets in observance of Remembrance Day. The TSX

As is usual for a Monday morning, market liquidity is very thin until it improves as more Asian centres come online … prices are liable to swing around, so take care out there. Indicative rates, not a lot changed from late Friday levels: EUR/USD 1.0712USD/JPY 152.68GBP/USD 1.2915USD/CHF 0.8761USD/CAD 1.3903AUD/USD 0.6584NZD/USD 0.5963 This article was written

Chinese inflation data for October was sneaked out over the weekend: China October CPI +0.3% y/y (expected +0.4%, prior +0.4%), deflation prospect lingers Chinese authorities would like to see the CPI higher. If there was encouragement for them it was in core inflation which moved to +0.2% y/y in October from +0.1% in September. Lest

The Bank made specific mention of forex issues in its statement after the October 30 and 31 meeting: Bank of Japan leaves rates unchanged, as widely expected The “Summary of Opinions” from this meeting highlights the following key points: Economic Developments: Moderate Recovery: Japan’s economy continues to recover moderately, with some areas showing weakness. The

The two major stock markets – the New York Stock Exchange and the Nasdaq – will be open on Monday, November 11, 2024. Bond markets are closed. The Securities Industry and Financial Markets Association (SIFMA) recommends bond trading closed. FX will trade. — SIFMA is the trade group that represents the bond market. This article

Germany is a (the) key economy in Europe, hence the eye on German politics. On Sunday in German Chancellor Scholz said he would be willing to call a vote of confidence in parliament before Christmas. Scholz had originally proposed this vote be held on January 15. This’ll set up an election, likely in late February

ICYMI, a note from Moody’s late last week on their outlook for US sovereign debt. It flags the ‘Red Sweep’ (note – still awaiting this) as a specific risk: “In the absence of policy measures to help limit fiscal deficits, the federal government’s deteriorating fiscal strength will increasingly weigh on the US sovereign credit profile.”

Robert Holzmann, Governor of Austria’s central bank and a European Central Bank Governing Council member. He tends hawkish. Holzmann spoke in an interview with the Kleine Zeitung newspaper. “As things look at the moment, it is possible (that there will be a cut in December). There is nothing at the moment that would argue against

UPCOMING EVENTS: Monday: BoJ Summary of Opinions. (US Holiday)Tuesday: UK Labour Market report, Eurozone ZEW, US NFIB Small Business Optimism Index, Fed’s SLOOS.Wednesday: Japan PPI, Australia Wage Price Index, US CPI.Thursday: Australia Labour Market report, UK GDP, Eurozone Employment Change and Industrial Production, US PPI, US Jobless Claims, Fed Chair Powell.Friday: Japan GDP, China Industrial

Mon: US Holiday: Veterans Day. BoJ SOO (Oct), BoC SLOS; Norwegian CPI (Oct)Tue: Fed SLOOS, OPEC MOMR; German CPI (Final), ZEW (Nov), UK Unemployment/Weekly Earnings (Sep), US NFIB (Oct)Wed: Riksbank Minutes (Nov), EIA STEO; Australian Wage Price Index (Q3), US CPI (Oct)Thu: ECB Minutes (Oct), Banxico Policy Announcement, IEA OMR; Australian Unemployment Rate (Oct), Swedish

The USDCAD remained (for the most part) this week in a range between 1.38337 on the downside and 1.3958 on the topside. The topside is defined by the high from last Friday and the high from the US election buying. Both those highs took out the August high at 1.3945. Both of those levels are

October 2024 CPI rose 0.3% year-on-year, down from 0.4% in September, and below economists’ median expectations of 0.4%: Shows continued weak consumer demand and keeps deflation concerns active. China faced deflation for four months at the end of 2023. On the PPI: Factory-gate prices -2.9% in October, falling from September’s -2.8% and much worse than

MUFG anticipates a resumption of USD appreciation over the coming months, following a brief pullback post-election. President-elect Trump’s strong mandate and planned policies on trade tariffs, tax cuts, and increased fiscal spending are expected to support higher yields and drive USD strength, particularly over the next 3-6 months. Key Points: Trump Policy Impact: Trump’s policies—tariffs,

We had a red sweep in the US election. That’s an outcome that was consensus bond bearish, on assumed larger deficits, inflationary tariffs and growth-boosting tax cuts. The initial reaction was about what you would expect, with 10-year yields rising 24 bps at the peak on Wednesday. Since then, two things happened: The first is

Canada October employment change +14.5K vs +25.0K expectedUMich November prelim consumer sentiment 73.0 vs 71.0 expectedBaker Hughes oil rigs 479 unchanged on the weekTrump asks Robert Lighthizer to run trade policy againBOE’s Pill: There is scope fore more rate cuts if disinflation continues Markets: S&P 500 up 0.4%WTI crude oil down $1.88 to $70.48Gold down

The USDCHF moved lower to start the trading week but found willing sellers near a key swing area between 0.86078 and 0.8619. The low held on Tuesday ahead of the election results. Those results sent the pair moving sharply higher. The run higher, extended back above the 100-day MA at 0.8667. It moved above the

Closing changes on the day: S&P 500 +0.4% – record closeNasdaq Comp +0.1%DJIA +0.6%Russell 2000 +0.7%Toronto TSX Comp -0.4% Closing changes on the week: S&P 500 +4.7%Nasdaq Comp +5.7%Russell 2000 +8.6%Toronto TSX Comp +2.1% Congratulations to everyone who held stocks through the election. The red sweep no doubt helped by I’ve argued many, many times

An earlier report highlighted John Paulson and Scott Bessent as possible candidates for Treasury Secretary and now Reuters sources say those are the leading candidates. I wrote about Paulson earlier in the week and emphasized that he’s a major gold bull. Now, I don’t know that he’s going to advocate adding to US gold reserve

The S&P 500 index has ticked to 6000 for the first time. The new milestone was reached at 6000.02. The current price is at 5998.02 up 24.87 points or 0.42%.. The index reached 5000 9-months ago on February 8, 2024 Meanwhile the Dow industrial average is up 276.79 points or 0.63% of 44006.82. It has

Be aware. Be prepared. In the videos below, I take a technical look at all the major currencies vs the USD. What is the bias and what would move the bias the other way? Support? Resistance? What are the targets? I look at all the key technicals in play for each of the major currency

MUFG Research added a short EUR/USD to its Trade of the Week portfolio. MUFG is short EUR/USD with a target at 1.0400, and a stop at 1.10. “We are recommending a new short EUR/USD trade recommendation. We expect the EUR to weaken further against the USD in anticipation of Donald Trump imposing higher tariffs on

The weekly Baker Hughes rig count remains unchanged across the board in the current week: Oil rig count 479 vs 479 last weekNat. Gas rig count 102 vs 102 last weekTotal rig count 585 vs 585 last week. This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

US President-elect Trump has asked Robert Lighthizer to run trade policy once again, according to the FT. The report says Lighthizer had been asked to return to the top trade role even though he had lobbied for a different position, including commerce secretary and Treasury secretary. It’s not clear if he’s accepted the offer but

The EURUSD is ticking lower in the US session and in the process is moving away from a swing area between 1.07609 and 1.07767. Staying below below that area keeps the buyers firmly in control. It is a close risk for sellers/traders. The Federal Reserve cut rates by 25 basis points yesterday, but the thoughts

Not many markets are pricing in a big risk around Trump tariffs so far as it’s viewed as more of a threat than a real risk. Meanwhile, Germany looks like it will head to an election around the idea of rising deficits or retaining the fiscal brake. At the same time, the German economy continues

The major indices are set to open mixed/lower after the broader S&P and Nasdaq closed at record levels. The indices are up strongly this week as the market cheer the Trump victory along with a Fed that cut rates and is favored to cut in December too. Yields are lower today to start the US

I wrote earlier this week about how the regime in the FX market may change in the years ahead so I’m cautious about drawing intraday conclusions, but the divergence today between rising stocks and a falling AUD/USD is tough to ignore. This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

Zircuit, the chain where innovation meets security, is thrilled to announce the success of its EIGEN Fairdrop initiative. With a first-of-its-kind distribution of 2% of ZRC tokens to eligible EIGEN holders, Zircuit has introduced a model of fairness and inclusivity in the Ethereum staking ecosystem, underscoring a commitment to decentralization and community empowerment. The EIGEN

The AUDUSD price action this week was up and down. The close from a week ago was at 0.6558. The current price is at 0.6562. Not a lot of change at the current level. However, in between, the price moved higher into the election. It moved lower with the dollar buying through the election. It

I don’t know what people were thinking with the Chinese market and global growth trades yesterday. They rallied huge yesterday despite Trump winning the election. The hope — evidently — was that Beijing was going to deliver larger stimulus. The thing is, the stimulus has been widely known for awhile. As I highlighted Oct 29:

What do you do if you’re a US importer right now? Particularly if you’re importing goods from China? Stockpile, obviously. The market has so far dismissed the chance of 10% across-the-board US tariffs and 60% tariffs on China but some level of China tariffs is highly likely and you can’t rule anything out with Trump.

The US major indices are trading marginally higher to start the final day of the trading week which included a presidential election and Federal Reserve interest rate cut. The markets are cheering the Pres. Trump victory with solid gains this week. There may be a little slowing today, but still it is not a bad

The European stock indices are closing mostly higher. The exception is the UK FTSE 100 which fell despite the 25 basis point cut by the BOE today. The final numbers are showing: German DAX, +1.72% France’s CAC +0.76%UK’s FTSE 100 -0.32%Spain’s Ibex +0.65%Italy’s FTSE MIB +0.12% This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

The NZDUSD this week found support at the last swing low going back to August 6 at 0.5912, before ignitiing a run to the September high at 0.63778. The subsequent high reached yesterday, extended to another key area. The swing area at 0.60313 to 0.60443 stalled the rally (see red numbered circles). So buyers did

BNP Paribas are forecasting the Bank of Japan will hike rates at their December meeting (18 and 19). says the BoJ will consider uncertaintes surrounding the new administration in the US (Trump will take office in January). says a weaker yen could trigger a hike from the BoJthe analysts expect the yen to weaken further

The post-election trade in the dollar hasn’t been too straightforward over the last two days to say the least. The greenback saw gains abate yesterday but is looking to recover back some ground again in trading today. But even then, it isn’t that convincing with the dollar lagging against the yen and franc on the

To increase monetary policy regulationTo increase precision of monetary policyWill maintain reasonably ample liquidity conditionsTo maintain yuan exchange rate basically stable at a reasonably equilibrium levelWill continue to enrich monetary policy toolkit to improve efficient use of funds There isn’t anything new there in the language since their shift from more “prudent” monetary policy to

Freddie Mac’s 30-year mortgage rate for the week of November 7 rises to 6.79% from 6.72% last week. That is the highest level since 11. Looking at the chart, the price is back above its 100 week MA for what it is worth at 6.76% What the chart also says is the recent low (and

EURUSD Update Key Points EURUSD moved higher yesterday but faced selling pressure at the 100-hour MA. Breaking above the 100-hour MA and 200-hour MA is needed to confirm a bullish trend. Today’s price action pushed down to a key swing area (1.07609-1.07767) and is now breaking below that area. Stay below is more bearish. .

The S&P 500 is on a three-day winning streak as the market sorts out the election. The index hit a record high at 5983 yesterday but futures point to a 4 point decline at the open. I spoke to Reuters yesterday and highlighted the dynamic: The market is pricing in a return of the first

Guess what happens next? The interviews for this survey concluded before the election but we’ll see a shift in the final number and a bigger one next month. Current conditions 64.4 vs 64.9 priorExpectations 78.5 vs 74.1 prior1-year inflation 2.6% vs 2.7% prior (lowest since Dec. 2020) 5-year inflation 3.1% vs 3.0% prior This indicator

Japan economy minister Akazawa expects private spending to increase with rising wages. His comments come after disappointing spending data earlier: Japanese household spending (September) -1.3% m/m (expected -0.7%) Finance minister Kato spoke earlier, his ‘interventiong’ typse remarks seem to be having a bit of an imp[cat now: Japan finance minister Kato: will take appropriate steps

Looking at wages, margins and labour market tightnessTo a large extent, we will have to look through inflationary impact of government budgetGradual reduction in interest rates is conditionalPolitical developments in the US and Germany do pose some questions Nothing there that hasn’t been said by Bailey already yesterday. There continues to be the emphasis on

Once again, Beijing is finding out that they have a rather tough crowd to please. After the conclusion of the NPC meeting today, officials announced a ¥6 trillion plan to refinance local government debt (added context) as seen here. The figure there is as expected, matching the split of the supposed ¥10 trillion stimulus package

The clearest message the Jerome Powell delivered at the press conference was that he wasn’t going anywhere as Fed chair, no matter what the President asks or tries. That’s great news for markets because we know exactly what we will get with Powell: A dove. The kneejerk on the FOMC statement was hawkish because they

Italy’s Economy Minister Giancarlo Giorgetti said the government plans to cut funds that have been set aside to support the country’s automotive industry to avoid funding cars made in China. wants to divert 4.6 billion euros out of the 5.8 billion euros earmarked for the 2025-2030 period to fund the automotive sector “We are not

Fundamental Overview The US Dollar is now lower across the board as the market erased most of the greenback’s gains following Trump’s victory. This has been a puzzling reaction as Trump’s policies are likely to spur growth and potentially end the Fed’s easing cycle earlier than expected. We can argue that the market was already

November 07, 2024 Federal Reserve issues FOMC statement For release at 2:00 p.m. EST Recent indicators suggest that economic activity has continued to expand at a solid pace. Since earlier in the year, labor market conditions have generally eased, and the unemployment rate has moved up but remains low. Inflation has made progress toward the

Fundamental Overview The US Dollar is now lower across the board as the market erased most of the greenback’s gains following Trump’s victory. This has been a puzzling reaction as Trump’s policies are likely to spur growth and potentially end the Fed’s easing cycle earlier than expected. We can argue that the market was already

Prior month +46.7KUnemployment rate 6.5%vs 6.6% expected (prior 6.5%)Full-time employment +25.6K vs +112.0K priorPart-time employment -11.2K vs -65.3K priorParticipation rate 64.8% vs 64.9% priorAverage hourly wages y/y 4.9% vs 4.5% priorPrivate sector employment +20.5K vs +61K priorPublic sector employment -17.2K vs -24K prior Ahead of the data, the market was pricing in a 60% chance

There are just a couple to take note of on the day, as highlighted in bold. And again, they are all for EUR/USD layered in between 1.0750 through to 1.0800. Post-election sentiment is still the name of the game in driving FX flows now, so the expiries are just secondary drivers alongside everything else at

These numbers for Wednesday’s trade, showing 12 spot bitcoin ETFs raked in a combined $621.9 million Fidelity’s FBTC, securing $308.77 millionArk Invest’s and 21shares’ ARKB followed closely with $127 million Grayscale’s Bitcoin Mini Trust added $108.81 million Cumulative net inflows since Jan. 11 to $24.12 billion. Info via here, with more info. This article was

Fundamental Overview The US Dollar is now lower across the board as the market erased most of the greenback’s gains following Trump’s victory. This has been a puzzling reaction as Trump’s policies are likely to spur growth and potentially end the Fed’s easing cycle earlier than expected. We can argue that the market was already

Silver futures warning: bear flag signals potential 17% drop ahead ⚠️ Traders and investors in silver futures, silver-related ETFs, and XAG/USD should keep a close watch as silver faces a potential breakdown, highlighted in the 4-hour chart. After a period of consolidation within an upward channel (marked in orange), silver has breached this structure, forming

Jerome Powell will remain Fed chair until May 2026, when his term ends. Trump likes to rant about the Federal Reserve but he’s powerless to remove Powell anyway. There is some belief he could demote him to Fed Governor but that wouldn’t take away his vote. Current market pricing suggests a cut today at 68%

On the revision, Barclays cites the BOE’s more cautious tone that emphasised uncertainty and gradual policy moves. “The main messaging from the press conference was repeated emphasis on the extent of uncertainty at the current juncture: uncertainty around the impact of the fiscal package; uncertainty on the current state of the labour market.” Adding that

Lower tier data features on the data agenda for the session ahead. Asian markets will digest the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) decision and Powell’s presser though, so there should be some movement at least. If its subdued, its just an interlude to an active four years coming up! Y’all set for four years of

Headlines: The post-election tussle continues to play outUSD/JPY Technical Analysis – Interesting reversal in the US DollarChinese yuan falls as NPC announcement lacks oomph so farChina’s top lawmakers approve plan to swap local government debtPBOC says will continue with supportive monetary policyFrance September trade balance -€8.27 billion vs -€7.37 billion priorBarclays now sees the Fed

Fundamental Overview The US Dollar is now lower across the board as the market erased most of the greenback’s gains following Trump’s victory. This has been a puzzling reaction as Trump’s policies are likely to spur growth and potentially end the Fed’s easing cycle earlier than expected. We can argue that the market was already

1110 GMT / 0610 US Eastern time: Panel participation by Toni Gravelle, Deputy Governor of the Bank of Canada at European Central Bank Conference on Money Markets. Earlier this week from the BoC: BOC Meeting minutes: BOC felt upside pressure on inflation will continue to decline This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

Prior -€7.37 billion; revised to -€7.72 billion The French trade deficit grew slightly in September as exports fell by 1.4% while imports fell by just 0.2% on the month. This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

This relates to this matter as posted earlier in the week: China are reportedly reviewing a bill to raise local government debt ceilings It is essentially just a left pocket, right pocket move to switch China’s “hidden debt” to be back on the balance sheet. This so that Beijing can easier and better help local

We’ve watched the run-up in bond rates and they’re nowhere near a year ago. We will see where they settleWe’ve all read decompositions on why yields have moved up but we think they’re about fewer downside risks and better growth (not inflation)We don’t guess, speculate or assume on fiscal policyData has been stronger than expected

Fundamental Overview The US Dollar is now lower across the board as the market erased most of the greenback’s gains following Trump’s victory. This has been a puzzling reaction as Trump’s policies are likely to spur growth and potentially end the Fed’s easing cycle earlier than expected. We can argue that the market was already

DoubleLine Capital CEO Jeffrey Gundlach spoke with CNBC (may be gated). His comments are straightforward macroeconomics: if the Republicans ends up controlling the House … the higher government spending that would result would require more borrowing through Treasury issuance, putting upward pressure on bond yields“If the House goes to Republicans, there’s going to be a

The NASDAQ index has moved to a new session high and currently trades up 300 points on the day at 19284. The The high reached 19285.95. The press conference ended with the index at 19280. This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

Eurostoxx +0.2%Germany DAX +0.1%France CAC 40 +0.2%UK FTSE +0.1%Spain IBEX flatItaly FTSE MIB -0.1% German stocks have cooled off after the gains yesterday and the overall mood now is more tepid if anything else. This comes with US futures also keeping flattish but it is still early in the day. Investors will look to Wall

The NZDUSD moved above its 100 and 200 converged hourly MAs earlier today after breaking below it yesterday and staying below it on the corrective moves. That gave the buyers more confidence and the price moved higher. The run to the upside extended after breaking above its 100-bar moving average on the 4-hour chart at

The European session is going to be empty on the data front with just a couple of low tier data releases. In the American session, the highlights will be the Canadian labour market data and the US UMich consumer sentiment report. 13:30 GMT/08:30 ET – Canada October Labour Market report The Canadian Labour Market report

At the same time, officials are also expected to present additional fiscal stimulus measures to bolster the economy. From earlier: Will we get anything from China today? Just be mindful that this will come after the close for Chinese equities. The Shanghai Composite is down 0.8% with the CSI 300 index down 1.2% so far

The Shanghai Composite index closes the day down 0.5% and CSI 300 index down 1.0%. But on the week itself, both indices secured gains of roughly 5.5% – largely boosted by the strong buying yesterday. Chinese officials are slated to announce stimulus measures at around 0800 GMT as seen here next. However, the question remains

Japanese household spending -1.3% m/m expected -0.7%, prior +2.0% -1.1% y/y expected -2.1%, prior -1.9% Not encouraging for a BoJ rate hike. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

In addition, Powell was what he always is: A dove. Closing changes: S&P 500 +0.7%Nasdaq Comp +1.5%DJIA flatRussell 2000 -0.2%Toronto TSX Comp +0.8% The market is convincing itself “he didn’t mean it” on tariffs and the strongest evidence for that was the 5% rally in China ETFs today. This article was written by Adam Button

Deputy Governor of the Bank of Canada Toni Gravelle speaking on FridayJapan economy minister Akazawa expects private spending to increase with rising wagesChinese inflation data will be published over the weekendJapan finance minister Kato: will take appropriate steps on excess FX movesJapan fin min Kato says will closely monitor impact of Trump’s policies on Japan’s

As mentioned earlier in the week here, the IMF estimates that China’s “hidden debt” to be above ¥60 trillion as of last year. But Chinese officials are now out saying that they only have ¥14.3 trillion in “hidden debt” as of the same period. It’s a stark contrast in terms of the number as the

September 18November 07, 2024 Federal Reserve issues FOMC statement For release at 2:00 p.m. EST Recent indicators suggest that economic activity has continued to expand at a solid pace. Job gainsSince earlier in the year, labor market conditions have slowedgenerally eased, and the unemployment rate has moved up but remains low. Inflation has made further

Swiss National Bank chair Schlegel was speaking at an event in Brugg, Switzerland, on Thursday. physical cash to retain an important role in the Swiss payments systemvirtual currencies “remain a niche phenomenon”strong fluctuation in values that meant they were not practical for paymentsrequired a huge amount of energywere also linked to illegal activities and were

The Hong Kong Monetary Authority is Hong Kong’s central bank. The HKD trades in a band linked to the US dollar prescribed by the HKMA. You can see the limits of the band in the chart below. – The Hong Kong Monetary Authority (HKMA) often adjusts its interest rates in line with the U.S. Federal

The FOMC statement is due out at the top of the hour and Fed Chairman Jerome Powell will hold a press conference afterwards. A 25 basis point rate cut to a range of 4.50-4.75% is assured but what comes next isn’t so the market will be looking for hints. In all likelihood, it will be

UBS analysts (at UBS Global Wealth Management) says GBP will be a beneficiary of the Bank of England only cutting rates gradually. cautious Bank of England will support sterlingsees GBP/USD higher in the months ahead UBS remarks after the Bank of England cut its Bank rate on Thursday but sounded less dowvish on future rate

That follows the developments this week with Trump being elected US president and also the FOMC meeting yesterday. At the balance, Fed chair Powell was a little dovish but he did keep stressing on caution in how they will proceed on policy going into next year. A 25 bps move in December seems to be

The People’s Bank of China set the onshore yuan (CNY) reference rate for the trading session ahead. USD/CNY is the onshore yuan. Its permitted to trade plus or minus 2% from this daily reference rate.CNH is the offshore yuan. USD /CNH has no restrictions on its trading range.A significantly stronger or weaker rate than expected

People’s Bank of China USD/CNY reference rate is due around 0115 GMT. The People’s Bank of China (PBOC), China’s central bank, is responsible for setting the daily midpoint of the yuan (also known as renminbi or RMB). The PBOC follows a managed floating exchange rate system that allows the value of the yuan to fluctuate

Due at 0130 GMT on Saturday, November 9, 2024: 2130 US Eastern time on Friday, November 8 China’s CPI for October: expected -0.1% m/m, prior 0.0%expected +0.4% y/y, prior +0.4% PPI: expected -2.5% y/y, prior -2.8%expected not as negative as in September due to raw material metals having risen in October, along with the global

German DAX futures +0.1%UK FTSE futures +0.2% This comes with US futures also cooling off, with S&P 500 futures seen flat currently. German stocks were the standout yesterday as investors were hoping that a potential change of government could help to revive the country’s economic plight. But again, Trump tariffs are still a key consideration

The Fed GDPNow growth estimate for Q4 rose to 2.5% from 2.4% last. In their own words: The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the fourth quarter of 2024 is 2.5 percent on November 7, up from 2.4 percent on November 5. After this morning’s wholesale trade release from

From last week: China mulls approving fresh fiscal package worth over ¥10 trillion next week The details of the leaked stimulus above were a little underwhelming to say the least. I mean, a ¥4 trillion split to special-purpose bonds just for idle land and property purchases? Not exactly all too convincing. The other ¥6 trillion

Japan’s Ministry of Finance with the info after FX reserves down to US$1.239 tln at the end of ocot: prior 1.255 tln USD USD/JPY selling intervention on July 11 was 3.1678 tln yen worth USD/JPY selling intervention on July 12 was 2.367 tln yen worth I highlighted July 11 for reference. Y’all remember the officials

Yuichiro Tamaki is a Japanese politician and the leader of the Democratic Party For the People Comment from him on the wires: Trump policies can intensify inflation in the US, push up the USD vs. the yen *** So can Tamaki’s comments by the look of it 😉 Tamaki’s comment fits with the expectations that

Bowman dissented at the FOMC prior to this week’s. No dissent at yesterday’s meeting though. 1600 GMT / 1100 US Eastern time: Federal Reserve Board Governor Michelle Bowman participates in conversation on banking topics before the University of Mississippi School of Business Banking and Finance Symposium1930 GMT / 1430 US Eastern time: (PRE-RECORDED) Federal Reserve

Powell has been careful to avoid politics in the post-election press conference but was asked if he would leave if Trump wanted him out and he said, coldly “no”. Then he was asked if he could legally be removed and again said “no” without further commenting. It was a strong message. This article was written

JP Morgan like BTC through to year end: “We continue to see room for the Trump trade to reverberate over the coming eight weeks or so in a similar fashion to 2016,” And beyond: “Trump policies are likely to be supportive of both into 2025” JPM say gold and BTC will benefit from a “debasement

Japan finance minister Kato: will take appropriate steps on excess FX moves Won’t comment on forex levels.Important for currencies to move in stable manner reflecting fundamentals.Will take appropriate steps on excess moves.Have seen one-sided and drastic moves on the currency market.Will closely monitor currency moves, including those driven by speculators with utmost sense of urgency.

This video outlines the key technical levels in play and why after the FOMC rate decision. EURUSD 0:45USDJPY 1:40GBPUSD 2:29USDCHF 3:15USDCAD 4:15AUDUSD 5:13 Looking at the yields, before the Fed decision: 2 year 4.205%, -6.2 basis points5 year 4.118%, -8.9 basis point10 year 4.339%, minus a .7 basis points30-year 4.546%, -5.4 basis points Current yields

The USDJPY is lower and in the process is down testing the 100/200 hour MAs at 152.89. Looking at the hourly chart, the 100 hour MA has been a barometer for support on the upside and resistance on the corrective move lower going into the election. Yesterday, the price action saw the price run above

Japan finance minister Kato: will closely monitor impact of Trump’s policies on Japan’s economy We had a politician in Japan posting a warning earlier: Japan DPP head says Trump policies can intensify inflation, push USD/JPY higher There are some arguments that Trump’s impact on the yen (weaker seems to be the favoured expectation) cold prompt

Discover how to start trading live with a small account in forex so that you can profit as soon as possible with as little money as possible based on your trading style The post How To Trade Forex With A Small Trading Account appeared first on TradingwithRayner.

South Korea’s finance minister, Choi Sang-mok, spoke at a meeting with top economic and financial policymakers to review the implications of the U.S. Federal Reserve’s policy meeting outcome. said authorities will respond in a timely manner if volatility heightens excessivelygovernment’s 24-hour monitoring system, which had been run to monitor the Middle East situation, would be

JP Morgan taking time out from dissecting the Fed decision! JPM say the participation of retail investors in markets after the US election surged: +5% from the same time in 2020 JPM noted demand for: broad market ETFsleveraged bull techBitcoin ETFsTSLAPLTR And selling of GLD. Pat on the back for all involved! So far, anyway.

Rekt Brands Inc. (Rekt), the parent company behind the Rektguy NFT project, Rekt Drinks, and the Rekt brand intellectual property, is excited to announce the completion of a $1.5 million seed funding round. Funded exclusively by angel investors and the community—without institutional venture capital—this achievement highlights the support Rekt received from its loyal and growing

Good morning, afternoon and evening all. Any charts, technical analysis, trade ideas, thoughts, views, ForexLive traders would like to share and discuss with fellow ForexLive traders, please do so: This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

Noted hurricane and strike effects on jobs in NovemberWage growth has easedUnemployment has edged down in past 3 months, remains lowLabor market conditions now less tight than just before pandemic, notes it’s not a source of significant inflation pressuresOverall inflation has moved much closer to goalCore inflation remains somewhat elevatedWe are committed to maintaining economy’s

The ECB Stournaras is on the wires saying: If Trump does what he says on tariffs, it will have a negative impact on European economy. The EURUSD has corrected higher in trading today, and in the process moved up to a high price of 1.0824. That got within about 8 pips of its near converged

US equity close: Red wave in politics, green wave in marketsPowell delivered another dovish message and the market isn’t doubting himPowell coldly says he won’t quit if asked by TrumpWhat are the update technical levels in play as Powell works through press conferencePowell Q&A: We’re not at the stage where bond rates need to be

Expect Powell to dodge questions about politics but there are some thorny issues around stronger growth that could trip him up. This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

A 25 basis point rate cut was fully priced inThe Fed removes the line “the Committee has gained greater confidence that inflation is moving sustainably toward 2 percent” Prior statement repeats that economic activity “has continued to expand at a solid pace”On employment says “Job gains have slowed, and the unemployment rate has moved up

E-mini S&P futures have extended to the 6000 level for the first time in history. That’s up around 42 points or 0.72%. The 500 is up 0.67% also trading at a new record at 5969.20 currently. The NASDAQ index is up 250 points or 1.32% at 19233.65. It too is trading at a new all-time

It’s been a while but finally we can reuse the picture above again. Good times. With all the focus on the US election this week, let’s not forget that we also do have key central bank policy decisions to work through. And that will come via the BOE and Fed later today. Both central banks

Eurostoxx +0.2%Germany DAX +0.7%France CAC 40 flatUK FTSE +0.2%Spain IBEX +0.3%Italy FTSE MIB +0.6% In Germany, politics are also a consideration now after Scholz dismissed finance minister Lindner and that has led to the dissolution of the ruling coalition. Are we going to see another far-right push there as has been the case across the

USD/JPY tumblingChina Airlines close to split order for 20 passenger jets between Airbus and Boeing.There is a deluge of European Central Bank speakers Thursday – Lane (3 spots!), SchnabelAUD and NZD continue to retrace yesterday’s lossesChina October dollar denominated exports +12.7% y/y & imports -2.3%China’s Xi Jinping congratulates Trump on election victoryChina January – October

Stock market analysis as SPX eyes 6000: Will the S&P 500 break through key resistance? 🚀 The S&P 500 (SPX) is on a steady climb, testing a critical resistance level around 5936. Traders and investors are abuzz, speculating whether this market heavyweight will reach the monumental 6000 mark—a round number packed with liquidity and significant

The NASDAQ index is leading the way with a gain of 1.3%, up 247 points or 19231.50. Looking at the hourly chart, the price has moved above a channel trendline that comes across at 19130.21. That increases the bullish bias. There is no reason to sell unless the price were to move back below that

Headlines: Dollar gains cool off for the time beingWeekly update on interest rate expectationsBOE cuts bank rate by 25 bps to 4.75%, as expectedBOE governor Bailey: We still need to see services inflation to come down more broadlyFed to cut interest rates at a quarterly pace after December – JP MorganDeutsche Bank now sees base

Fundamental Overview The Nasdaq tested the all-time high following Trump’s victory and the red sweep as the market started to look forward to bullish drivers like tax cuts and deregulation. One potential bearish reason people are looking at is rising Treasury yields. That’s generally bearish when the Fed is tightening though as the market looks

FOMC day. Just two days after the election, Fed will weigh in when they their interest-rate decision at 2 PM ET. The expectations are for a 25 basis point cut to 4.5% to 4.75% target as the Fed continues into recalibration. What will be of more interest to the market is Fed chair Powell weighs

The AUDUSD is moving higher today and technically made some positive strides Earlier today, the price moved above its 200-day moving average near 0.66284. It also moved above a swing area near that level (see green numbered circles on the chart above). That break turned sellers into buyers. You can see it more clearly on

Get ready to turn down the political noise and turn up the Fed noise. The FOMC decision is at 2 pm ET and Powell will hold a press conference 30 minutes later. A cut is coming but the big question is how the Fed will react to the 85 bps rise in Treasury yields since

Fundamental Overview The US Dollar rallied across the board yesterday as Trump got elected President of the US. The Republicans won also the Senate and the House giving us a red sweep and therefore high chances of tax cuts. This should be the most bullish scenario for the greenback as it should lead to higher

Abrdn plc (formerly Standard Life Aberdeen plc) is a United Kingdom-based investment company. Analyst comments on the implications of Trump’s win: expected to lead to a more relaxed regulatory environment, increased trade tariffs, and possible repeals of parts of the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA).Markets were already factoring in a potential Trump win, but a Republican

Trump campaigned on promises of across the board 10 to 20% tariffs on imports, but of 60% and over on those from China./ JP Morgan cite “procedural reasons” for their assessment that the chances of a 10% across-the-board tariff in 2025 are low. However, they say that China will face significantly higher tariffs. Time to

Prior 5.00%Bank rate vote 8-1 vs 7-2 expected (Mann dissented to keep bank rate at 5.00%)There has been continued progress in disinflationBut domestic inflationary pressures are resolving more slowlyMost of the remaining persistence in inflation may dissipate quicklyPay and price-setting dynamics continue to normalise following the unwinding of the global shocksWe need to make sure

The USDCAD has erased the declines from this week after the break to new 2024 highs on Friday failed. The low price yesterday and into today stalled just ahead of a support target at 1.3813 (the low reached 1.3817). The election results started the run back to the upside and that momentum has moved up

Is”the bark is worse than the bite” on tariffs? S&P global is out saying: Tariffs could increase US inflation and be a drag on US growth.Unlikely that Pres. Trump imposes a 10% blanket tariff and 60% tariff on Chinese goods Policy impacting deficits and that could affect US sovereign credit rating.Projections assume deficit will remain

Details of the BOE monthly Decision Maker Panel for October Year-ahead Own-price Inflation: Remained unchanged at 3.5% in the three months to October.Firms expect output price inflation to decrease by 0.5 percentage points over the next 12 months. CPI Inflation: Perceived CPI inflation was 2.7% in the three months to October, unchanged from the previous

Impossible to say where the next shock for the financial system will come from Well, at least they’re already starting to acknowledge the risks of tariffs that will come about when Trump takes office next year. But we’ll have to wait and see to gauge the impact as a whole. This article was written by

Bank of France Governor Francois Villeroy de Galhau is a member of the European Central Bank Governing Council, the monetary policy setting board of the Bank. He spoke on Wednesday. “The American election must sound a wakeup call for Europe”Trump’s policy moves had to be seen, but a risk his plans could lead to a

Good morning. The Bank of England cut rate by 25 basis points to 4.75% to kickstart the US session. The vote was 8-1 vote with Catherine Mann as the only member who voted to keep rates unchanged. Governor Andrew Bailey highlighted the ongoing progress in disinflation but noted that domestic inflationary pressures are easing at

Prior week initial jobless claims revised to 218K vs 216Kinitial jobless claims 221K vs 221K estimate4-week moving average of initial jobless claims 227.25K vs 237.0K last week.Prior week of continuing claims 1.862M revised to 1.853MContinuing claims 1,892M vs 1.875M est4-week moving average of continuing claims 1.876M vs 1.867M last weekThe largest increases in initial claims

The House has been looking like it would stay under Republican control for awhile but I think there is a big difference to a 1-2 seat majority compared to a larger buffer. A tiny margin runs the risk that a Congressman grandstands or flips. The latest forecast from Decision Desk has shifted a couple more

Rate cuts by year-end Fed: 43 bps (100% probability of rate cut at today’s decision) 2025: 106 bps ECB: 27 bps (90% probability of rate cut at the upcoming meeting) 2025: 133 bps BoE: 31 bps (94% probability of rate cut at today’s decision) 2025: 87 bps BoC: 36 bps (55% probability of 25 bps

Prior was +0.4% (revised to +2.4%)Productivity +2.2% vs +2.3% expectedPrior productivity +2.5% (revised to +2.1%) In the long-run, productivity is the most-important predictor of an economy but in the short run, it’s nearly impossible to measure. Within this data, the unit labor cost number is certainly an inflationary one. This article was written by Adam

The USD is moving lower after the run higher yesterday after the US election. Yields which moved sharply higher are lower today and helping the bias. In the above video, I take a technical look at the EURUSD, USDJPY and GBPUSD. What levels are in play? What is the bias in the short term? What

The major US indices are trading higher for the second consecutive day after the President Trump victory gives investors hope for more growth, more stimulus. The Dow industrial average which led the way yesterday however is trading above or below unchanged. A snapshot of the market currently shows: Dow industrial average down -12 points or

Prior month +0.2%US wholesale inventories (revised) -0.2% versus -0.1% estimate (and preliminary)Wholesale sales +0.3% versus positive 0.2% estimate Sales September 2024 sales for merchant wholesalers (excluding manufacturers’ sales branches and offices) reached $674.8 billion.Increased by 0.3% from the revised August level.Decreased by 0.4% compared to September 2023.July to August 2024 percent change was revised:From a

The topic of the Phil Lane’s speech is “Public debt: Past lessons, future challenges” which is topical given that Germany is angling to have an election on removing the debt break. The presentation has been published and argues: Sovereign spread changes have significant impact on domestic lending conditionsCountries with weak bank capital ratios see stronger

The disinflation process is faster than expectedBut we still need services inflation to come down more broadlyThere could be lingering persistence in wage inflation pressures beyond the forecast This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

The groundwork is being laid by European leaders to shift towards larger deficit spending. Yesterday, German Chancellor Scholz signalled a plan to have an election based on removing the fiscal break and elsewhere, politicians aren’t shifting back to pre-covid norms. There is pushback though as ECB chief economist Phil Lane made a presentation today warning

Good morning, afternoon and evening all. Any charts, technical analysis, trade ideas, thoughts, views, ForexLive traders would like to share and discuss with fellow ForexLive traders, please do so: This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

Don’t expect interest rates to go back to very low levels unless there is some completely unknown shockWe will see where market interest rates are at the December meeting and judge policy accordinglyWe do have to watch very carefully the fragmentation of the world economyThere are a lot of risks related to that but we

Japan’s financial watchdog looks to put legal curbs in place to prevent foreign cryptocurrency exchanges from taking domestic assets overseas. This is intended to protect traders on the ‘exchanges’ (LOL, they are websites) Nikkei (gated) with the report. Assets have surged in the past day or so, of course: This article was written by Eamonn

Reuters Japan Corporate Survey In brief: Over half of Japanese firms plan to raise wages by 3% or more for the next business year, according to a Reuters survey.42% of firms expect wage hikes between 3% and 5%, while 9% foresee increases of 5% to 7%.41% anticipate wage increases between 1% and 3%.Survey conducted by

Well, that’s some contrast to the call by Nomura here which forecasts the Fed to cut by just once in 2025. But I guess the wide range of differing views highlights the uncertain nature of the Fed outlook now that Trump is president. As for markets, traders are pricing in ~89 bps of rate cuts

The greenback is seeing some light retracements across the board today, though the antipodeans are posting a solid rebound so far on the day. AUD/USD is up 0.8% to 0.6620 and is moving closer back towards a test of its 200-day moving average (blue line) of 0.6628. There’s not much catalysts in play at the

The market curve is what it isWe’ve used the term “gradual” for some time already nowBut will not go beyond what the term may mean as there is still a lot of uncertaintyIt is good news that inflation is well below where they thought it would be a year agoBut we are still in a

Chinese trade data YTD (January – October) USD denominated: exports +5.7% y/yimports +1.7% y/y Trade balance (January – October) is a surplus of 785.27bn USD. I haven’t yet spotted October alone data. — Trump has said he’ll be slamming China with 60% or more tariffs. — As an aside, mainland China and Hong Kong equity

People’s Bank of China USD/CNY reference rate is due around 0115 GMT. The People’s Bank of China (PBOC), China’s central bank, is responsible for setting the daily midpoint of the yuan (also known as renminbi or RMB). The PBOC follows a managed floating exchange rate system that allows the value of the yuan to fluctuate

In the European session the highlight will be the BoE rate decision where the central bank is expected to cut by 25 bps. In the American session, we get the US Jobless Claims and the FOMC rate decision. 12:00 GMT/07:00 ET – BoE Rate Decision The BoE is expected to cut interest rates by 25

Is AMD stock a buy or sell? key technical analysis and forecast supporting to sell it 🔍 When it comes to deciding whether AMD stock is a buy or sell, recent price action and technical indicators offer valuable insights. Currently, AMD (Advanced Micro Devices) is showing signs of weakness as it fails to hold within

Harris giving her concession speech after the election. If you are interested: This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

Our companies need support immediately, anybody who refuses that is acting irresponsiblyGermany will have to take responsibility and help Europe hold togetherAfter US elections we need to show we could be relied onBut finance minister Lindner showed no willingness to implement any of our proposalsOf all the rich democracies, we have by far the lowest

China stocks fall again at open as investors brace for Trump presidency China and Hong Kong stocks started lower on Thursday – info via Reuters. Investors are wary of heightened tensions around security and trade in a second Donald Trump presidency. On the other hand, the Chinese leadership meeting, the National People’s Congress Standing Committee,

Since its founding in 2004, Dukascopy has grown into a trusted, innovative leader in the fintech and online trading space, providing clients with advanced tools and a stable platform for smart financial decisions. Over the past 20 years, Dukascopy has reached major milestones that reflect its core values of stability, innovation, and putting clients first.

Fundamental Overview The S&P 500 soared into a new all-time high following Trump’s victory and the red sweep as the market started to look forward to bullish drivers like tax cuts and deregulation. One potential bearish reason people are looking at is rising Treasury yields. That’s generally bearish when the Fed is tightening though as

The slide for imports is not encouraging. The export pipeline looks like its swelling ahead of the US expected swinging tariffs. Exports have been a bright spot for the economy struggling with weak domestic demand and a seemingly never-ending property market debt crisis. YTD figures are here from earlier: China January – October dollar denominated

Last week, the tech giants — Apple, Amazon, Alphabet, Microsoft, and Meta — released their quarterly reports, which showed steady revenue and profit growth across the board, pretty much in line with previous ones. However, except for the results of Jeff Bezos’ company and Amazon stock, the investors were not “fully satisfied.” Mixed forecasts for

Lane and Schnabel the most likely to spin out some market-relevant comments. Times below are GMT/US Eastern time: 0730/0230 ECB chief economist Philip Lane and Bank of Greece governor Yannis Stournaras will address a conference in Athens on “Public Debt, Past Lessons, Future Challenges” organised by Bank of Greece 0810/0310 Opening remarks by ECB Board

The most-bizarre reaction to the Trump win for me was the initial rally in the DAX. If the US is coming with tariffs, that’s a big problem for Germany’s export sector, in particular. The market seems to have figured it out as the rally has now turned into a 0.3% decline. Here is the intraday

The People’s Bank of China set the onshore yuan (CNY) reference rate for the trading session ahead. USD/CNY is the onshore yuan. Its permitted to trade plus or minus 2% from this daily reference rate.CNH is the offshore yuan. USD /CNH has no restrictions on its trading range.A significantly stronger or weaker rate than expected

Japan wages data shows that ‘real’ wages, ie after adjustment for inflating prices, fell in September. September Labour Cash Earnings+2.8% y/y expected +3.0%, prior +2.8% Real Cash Earnings -0.1% y/y, falling for the second month in a row expected +0.1%, prior –0.8% — Real wages are a critical indicator of consumer purchasing power in Japan,

The NZDUSD moved higher into the Election Day, but found willing sellers near the 100 bar MA on the 4-hour chart. As the election results started to come in, the buyers turned to sellers. ON the way lower, the price fell below the 100/200 hour MAs near 0.5975 and fell below the low from last

Cryptocurrency payments have made financial transactions faster and safer. Forex brokers that integrate a cryptocurrency payment gateway can provide these advantages and more for their users. Crypto payment integration results in real-time transaction settlement, lower fees, and improved fraud prevention. These benefits increase forex brokers’ operational efficiency, help them attract a global clientele, and remove

Goldman Sachs is saying that they keep its 12 month target for the S&P at 6300. The high price today reached 5907. A move to the target would imply a gain of 5.08% from the high price today. Goldman says that downside risks are the prospect of a trade conflict. On the positive side is

Prior was +5474Crude oil inventories +2149K vs +1103K expGasoline inventories +412K vs -878K expDistillates inventories +2947K vs -1137K expRefinery utilization +1.4% versus expectations of +0.3% Private inventory data released late yesterday: Crude +1643KGasoline -2019KDistillates -1478K Today’s report is bearish for crude but ahead of the report, it had made an impressive comeback. This article was

Prior +0.2%; revised to +1.1% Euro area retail sales grew by more than expected and that is on top of a sharp revision higher to the August figure. Looking at the details, food sales were down 0.4% but non-food store retail sales were up 1.1% with automotive fuel store sales up 0.2% on the month.

The AUDUSD fell ahead of the election results and in the process moved to the lowest level since August 8 at 0.6506 and bounced. The subsequent move higher taken the price toward the midpoint of the day’s trading range. The price has also moved back toward the converged 100 and 200-hour MAs near 0.6586. Those

Fundamental Overview The US Dollar rallied across the board yesterday as Trump got elected President of the US. The Republicans won also the Senate and the House giving us a red sweep and therefore high chances of tax cuts. This should be the most bullish scenario for the greenback as it should lead to higher

German construction activity slumped further in October, with both activity and new orders declining at a quicker pace. Adding to that is another notable round of retrenchment, highlighting rougher employment conditions. All main sectors showed a decline in activity, with housing once again being the worst performer. HCOB notes that: “The downturn in Germany’s construction

Following his win in Pennsylvania and earlier victories in other key battleground states in Georgia and North Carolina, Republican candidate Donald Trump took to the stage shortly after in Palm Beach, Florida. Trump is set to become the 47th President of the United States (US) as he took an early victory lap on stage and

China’s Xi Jinping congratulates Trump on election victory hopes that the two sides will respect each other, coexist peacefully and achieve win-win cooperationthe international community expects that both countries will respect each other, coexist peacefully, and achieve win-win cooperationboth sides should strengthen dialogueUS-China cooperation is a long-term goalUrges China, US to properly manage differences These

Analysts at MUFG say sterling is less vulnerable to tariffs than the currencies of other G10 countries. They cite the predominance of UK services and exports to the US over goods. On the Bank of England later today: expect a rate cut GBP could benefit if the BoE pauses in DecemberBOE needs to be cognizant

Info via Reuters: Taiwan’s China Airlines is close to deciding a multi-billion-dollar order for long-distance passenger jets, potentially split between Airbus and Boeing.The order for freighters is still under consideration, influenced partly by the U.S. presidential election outcome.The decision follows Donald Trump’s return to the U.S. presidency, with Taiwan aiming to maintain strong U.S. ties.The

They did the same yesterday. They won’t stop a rampant US dollar, but they’ll try to slow it. USD/CNH update: Before you harangue me, yes I am aware that the offshore yuan, CNH, is different to the onshore yuan, CNY. Feel free to post a USD/CNY chart in the comments. This article was written by

The firm had previously penciled in the ECB to cut interest rates to 2.25% as their base case. So, this is 75 bps lower than that. With potential Trump tariffs on the cards, that’s a key factor that could weigh on the euro area economy next year. So, that in turn creates downside risks to

AUD and Kiwi$ were hit on the surge of USD strength on Trump’s election. The drop has continued to be unwound today: No resistance showing on these charts, check for near highs earlier this week at least initially This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

German DAX futures +0.4%UK FTSE futures +0.4% This has that familiar ring to it, just like yesterday. European futures might be looking to chase the mood in US stocks again now but that turned sour when we got to US trading yesterday. With Trump in charge now, tariffs on the EU – particularly Germany –

A key beneficiary of the surge in crypto as Trum p won the election. BTC rose, ETH the same. Bids right across the complex. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

There are a couple to take note of, as highlighted in bold. They are both for EUR/USD at the 1.0725 and 1.0775 levels. To some degree, the expiries might just lock price action in between these levels but it’s all about post-election sentiment now. And momentum flows will be the key driver of the moves,

George Saravalos at Deutsche Bank makes two spectacular points in the aftermath of the election. 1) Beware regime shifts He’s not talking about the political regime shift here, he’s talking about a regime shift in markets in terms of how cross-asset classes interact. “Global risk assets are taking their cue from US equities and generally

1400 GMT / 0900 Eastern time: Opening remarks by Rhys Mendes, Deputy Governor of Bank of Canada at The John Kuszczak Memorial Lecture From the site: Sounds complicated. Link to the webinar is here. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

Prior +0.3% House prices in the UK nudged higher again, keeping the positive momentum in recent months. Halifax notes that: “That house prices have reached these heights again in the current economic climate may come as a surprise to many, but perhaps more noteworthy is that they didn’t fall very far in the first place..

Prior €22.5 billion Slight delay in the release by the source. The German trade balance narrowed in September with exports falling by 1.7% on the month while imports grew by 2.1% on the month. The former continues to present a challenging picture for the German economy and even more so now that Trump is in

Will strengthen communication with marketsTo steadily promote opening up of China’s financial services industry and marketsWill promote a sustained economic recovery The headlines noted that he provided an “in-depth explanation” of China’s current monetary policy stance and considerations to the central bank’s framework to said institutions. But from the remarks above, it is just more

Prior +2.9% Slight delay in the release by the source. After a modest showing in the month before, German industrial output slumped again in September. This is part of the Q3 picture though, so it isn’t too relevant at this stage. And even more so now that the German economy will have to look to

The EURUSD moved higher before the results of the election started to trickle in. The price moved up to test the 100-day MA and the 38.2% of the move down from the September high. The price moved lower as results came in, first breaking below the 200-day MA at 1.08687 and then the 100-bar MA

Some JPY strength has taken USD/JPY down sharply towards 154.00. No obvious immediate catalyst. It topped above 154.70 a good few hours ago and dribbled down to trade around 154.40/50 before its fall now. The USD is weaker almost across the board today. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

Atsushi Mimura is Japan’s vice finance minister for international affairs, AKA ‘top currency diplomat’. Japan’s finance ministry is the relevant authority in Japan for ordering intervention in the JPY. Mimura has taken over from Kanda in charge of the relevant department, so it’s him who would be directing Bank of Japan intervention, should it come

Gold is down $78 today to $2666 on the combination of higher Treasure yields and a stronger US dollar following the election. There is also some element of ‘sell the fact’ and relief that we don’t have a contested, uncertain result. It’s a 2.8% daily drop but it’s only a moderate setback in this year’s

Wages data from Japan will be eyed to give a clue on Bank of Japan rate hilkes ahead. The previous month’s data for these were a little disappointing for the Bank: Disappointing data on wages … not as yen positive as it could be Since that data we’ve had Japanese elections with political push back

Nomura anticipates that the Fed will respond cautiously to a Trump administration focused on tariffs and tax policies, which could be inflationary and growth-dampening. The Fed is expected to make two more cuts this year, with only one cut in 2025, followed by a pause and gradual easing in 2026. Key Points: Economic Policy Focus:

The only reason I can think of for the early strength in Europe stocks was a flow-driven unwind in volatility and option trades. In any case, the market later figured out that Trump’s plan is to put tariffs on Europe. Closing changes: Stoxx 600 -0.6%German DAX -1.1%France CAC -0.7%UK FTSE 100 -0.2%Spain IBEX -2.9%Italy’s FTSE

Harris will deliver a concession speech at ‘around’ 6 pm ET. Biden is also likely to speak today or tomorrow. It’s way too early to talk about the future of the Democratic Party. This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

Australian trade data for September 2024 Barely impacting on the Australian dollar. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

In crypto, you always have that lingering feeling that a rug pull is right around the corner and that big gains are about to evaporate. There were fears about a ‘sell the fact’ move in bitcoin after the election and I’m sure those haven’t gone away but the strong finish today is promising. Bitcoin is

With Trump coming back from January 20 2025, Inauguration Day, get set for four years of headline trading. Trump’s first term was characterised by policy-shift-by-tweet, often while he was (NSFW! warning) … ummm … using the bathroom (apparently!). This produced some wild swings in financial markets. ForexLive will, as always, have an eagle eye out

Banco Central do Brasil Monetary Policy Committee (Copom) decision: Decision was unanimous.Pace of future interest rate adjustments and total magnitude of the cycle will be determined by the firm commitment to reaching the inflation target.Pace of future interest rate adjustments and total cycle magnitude will depend on inflation dynamics, expectations and projections, the output gap,

Mitch McConnell was asked about Trump tax cuts and said “I’m sure virtually all of us would like to see most of that extended”. McConnell also called for increasing defense spending. It all adds up to some big deficits. It’s not clear who will be the new Senate majority leader but three names that have

Prior was 53.1Non-seasonally adjusted vs 54.5 prior This is a low tier indicator but Canadian manufacturing is worth pondering on the loonie trade. Tariffs are a risk, but the currency is also near a four-year low. This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

Lagarde in Frankfurt: Celebrating 10 years of Single Supervisory Mechanism (SSM)Bank capital ratios improved significantly: CET1 up from 12.7% (2015) to 15.8% (mid-2024)Euro area needs more banking consolidation – only 2 euro area banks rank in global top 10Banks need to help fund €5.4 trillion in green/digital/defense investments (2025-2031)Pushes for reduced national ring-fencing of capital/liquidityWants

Vitol head of research: China will continue to play an important role in global oil demand.Global oil demand to peak only in the 2030s, later than expected due to lower pick-up in EVs and commitments to environmental targetsLPG, naphtha, and jet fuel to drive global oil demand growth in 2025-2030China is restarting oil demand growth

German Chancellor Scholz angles for an election before the end of MarchGerman chancellor Scholz: Our companies need help immediatelyBOC’s Rogers highlights risks around higher rates after US electionThe US treasury auctions off $25B of 30 year bonds at a high yield of 4.608%McConnell wants to see Trump tax cuts extendedRepublicans extend lead in the HouseCanada

There are goign to be policy changes to taxes, to trade, to immigration in the US that could lead to economic growth, which could lead to inflation and higher rates in the USBank of Canada is absorbing what we’re seeing and starting to think aheadWe will remain optimistic as things move from campaign to governing,

Reserve Bank of Australia Governor Bullock testimony to parliament Senate committee Comments: premature to assess impact of US election outcometoo early to assess tariff implicationsmonitoring global developments, prepared to move accordinglyRBA will respond as needed to geopolitical risksChina’s stimulus plans are a positive for China and AustraliaAustralia’s domestic inflation outlook is unchanged as yetgovernment cost

Add some political intrigue into the mix as German Chancellor Scholz says he will call for a confidence vote on Jan 15 that would allow for election before the end of March. He also highlighted that “of all the rich democracies, we have by far the lowest debt”. That’s the sort of thing a politician

I would say that so far, markets are on their way to pricing in a return of Trump 1.0. What we don’t know is if we’ll get something closer to the Trump 2.0 who talked about 60% China tariffs and mass deportations. Time will tell and we will be trading the headlines. For now, equities

The US treasury will auction off $25B of the “grand-daddy of them all” coupon issue – the 30 year bond. That comes the day after the US political enviroment and economic environment changed with the election of Pres. Trump and the winning of the Senate and most likely the House as well. BMO previewed the

High Yield 4.608%WI level at the time of the auction: 4.63%Tail: -2.2 bps vs 6-month average 0.5 bpsBid to cover: 2.64X vs 6 month average of 2.4XDirects (a measure of domestic demand):27.1% vs. 6-month average of 16.58%Indirects (a measure of international demand): 62.7% vs 6-month average of 68.10%Dealers: 10.2% vs 5-month average of 15.32% Auction

Trump is back and it looks like Republicans are back in Congressional control. The last time we had this slate, Republicans cut corporate taxes and I expect that will be the case again. The big change is that this time, the US is already running a 7% deficit of GDP and the S&P 500 is

Construction PMI 54.3 vs 55.5 expected and 57.2 prior. Key findings: Civil engineering remains best-performing category, followed by commercial work. Renewed decline in house building. Business optimism slips to ten-month low. Comment: Tim Moore, Economics Director at S&P Global Market Intelligence, said: “The construction sector signalled another month of solid output growth in October, despite

The People’s Bank of China set the onshore yuan (CNY) reference rate for the trading session ahead. USD/CNY is the onshore yuan. Its permitted to trade plus or minus 2% from this daily reference rate.CNH is the offshore yuan. USD /CNH has no restrictions on its trading range.A significantly stronger or weaker rate than expected

Goldman Sachs is out with a note calling for the ECB’s terminal rate to fall to 1.75% rather than 2.00% in light of Trump’s win and incoming tariffs. I’ll take the ‘under’ on that. This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

It looks like Republicans will have free reign to administer the legislative agenda for at least the next two years. The bond market has been sniffing this out for awhile and is wilting today, with 30-year yields now up 19 bps on the assumption that Trump tax cuts will be extended and that there will

Pres. Trump blazed through the Presidential election and a new era begins. With control of the Senate and the House still up but leaning to the GOP too, the door is wide open for the administration for deregulation, smaller government, lower taxes. The theme is to grow the economy through the private sector with fingers

The first exit poll from Edison Research is out and it focuses on the demographics of voters: 53% of voters women vs 52% in 2020 71% white vs 67% in 202057% no college degree vs 59% in 202045% said personal finances were worse than 4 years ago vs 20% in 202031% said economy mattered most

The GBPUSD has moved down to test the 50% and a swing area between 1.2844 and 1.28719. The midpoint level is at 1.2866. The low price reached 1.2864 and is bouncing modestly. The bounce will target the low from two weeks ago at 1.29064. Staying below keeps the seller in control On the downside, the

Japan Jibun Bank / S&P Global Services PMI (October) 49.7 flash was 49.3prior was 53.1 Composite 49.6 prior 52.0 The report notes that momentum in Japan’s service sector faltered sharply at the beginning of the fourth quarter of 2024, as companies experienced their first contraction in four months. Although the decline was slight, it coincided

There is just one to take note of on the day, as highlighted in bold. But on a day like this, the influence of the expiries is far from the first thing in driving or impacting trading sentiment. It’s all about the US election and the momentum flows riding from the results and emotions. As

And the policy push that matters most for Trump is arguably that of tax cuts. The House is in charge of approving tax legislation and a Democratic majority there surely won’t make matters easy for Trump. He would have to go through unconventional means i.e. executive powers in order to try and push through. But

There are three reasons why the Russell 2000 is the big winner and why that should last: 1) It’s bank heavy A big part of the Russell is banks and regional banks. The regulatory environment is going to improve markedly and we’re seeing a steeper yield curve, both big tailwinds. The KRE regional bank ETF

I’ve seen figures suggesting Trump to take 312 college votes vs. Harris 226. Seems a bit extreme , but still it’s the vibe right now. Trump in front bigly. . The USD is skyrocketing. AUD down 1%, NZD not far off. GBP down, EUR dpwn, JPY down. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at

Preliminary results of Pennsylvania exit poll from Edison Research: Trump wins 43% of women voters, Harris wins 55%; Trump share down 1 pt from 2020Trump wins 50% of white women voters, Harris wins 48%; Trump share down 2 pts from 2020Trump wins 58% of white male voters, Harris wins 40%; Trump share down 4 pts

The USDCHF is trading up and down in trading today as the pair buys time ahead of the election results. The low for the price action has found support buyers in a key swing area between 0.86078 and 0.8619. That area also held support on Monday. On the upside, the 100 bar moving average on

There have been some big moves so far on the assumption of a red sweep but history shows that we’re only getting started. Here is the matrix from Deutsche Bank on the red sweep trades: Separately, here are seven equity-specific Trump trades from Jim Cramer. On top of that, we’re seeing rallies in the more-obvious

That is the highest level in four months and carries on from the surging run since October. And this is in part fueling the dollar gains on the day with EUR/USD now down nearly 2% at 1.0715 and USD/JPY up 1.7% to 154.15 currently. Trump’s domestic policies are largely aimed at boosting growth, spending and

The price of Bitcoin is running higher on the early Trump enthusiasm and in the process is moving toward the November 1 high. That level comes in at $71584. The high price just reached $71468 and backed off a bit. The current price is at $71163. Trump is considered more friendly to digital currencies. This

The US economic calendar is bare today aside from weekly oil inventory data. That will give markets a chance to trade around the election results. Eyes continue to be on House races, as it currently looks like Republicans will have a 2-seat majority, though there are some very close races. Scheduled economic news is slated

Crude oil futures are settling at $71.99, that is up $0.52 or 0.73%. Some influences: OPEC+ delayed 180,000 barrels per day of monthly production increases to January.US election uncertainty: Vice-President Kamala Harris and former president Donald Trump are neck and neck.China’s improving economy supports oil prices. Technically, the price spent most of the day between

Preliminary Results of Arizona Exit Poll: 46% of voters view Harris favorably, compared to Biden’s 49% in the 2020 exit poll (Edison Research).46% of voters view Trump favorably, versus 48% in the 2020 exit poll (Edison Research).63% of voters were White, versus 74% in the 2020 exit poll.4% were Black, versus 2% in 2020.26% were

Prior 49.6Composite PMI 48.1 vs 47.3 prelimPrior 48.6 The revisions are positive but still marks a drop from September. The details reveal the sharpest drop in new business since January with growth expectations also declining markedly compared to the month before. Cost pressures were subdued but prices charged by French service firms were still on

Fundamental Overview The US Dollar is higher across the board today as Trump got elected President of the US. The Republicans won the Senate, and they just need the House now to get a red sweep. That is the most bullish scenario for the greenback as it would make the tax cuts easier to pass

The data is here: New Zealand Q3 unemployment rate 4.8% (expected 5.0%, prior 4.6%) Westpac have a handy summary up, we don’t think that there’s anything in today’s figures that would shift the RBNZ’s thinking for its next policy decision at the end of this month Link to the full piece is here. My really

Final Services PMI 51.6 vs. 51.4 expected and 50.6 prior.Final Composite PMI 48.6 vs. 48.4 expected and 47.5 prior. Key findings: HCOB Germany Services PMI Business Activity Index at 51.6 (Sep: 50.6). 3-month high. HCOB Germany Composite PMI Output Index at 48.6 (Sep: 47.5). 3-month high. New business falls for second month running, leading to

The onshore yuan is sinking to its lowest since mid-August against the dollar now, with USD/CNY on the verge of hitting 7.17 on the day. It comes amid a surging dollar but also some bad news for China with Trump set to win the presidency. More tariffs and trade conflict will mean added concerns for

The NYT projection has Republicans with 194 seats and Democrats with 173 seats at the moment. And among the key ‘competitive’ districts here, there are still 45 left to officially report. That said, some of the votes are likely to be called imminently. So, let’s take a look at some important details that have surfaced

But the results have sort of been know for a while already, almost for the past four to five hours. Trump is on the verge of officially being declared the winner. He has 247 seats in the pocket with all the remaining five swing states (Arizona, Michigan, Nevada, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin) all leaning towards him

German DAX futures +0.2%UK FTSE futures +0.5% They’ve turned higher now in the past hour, dragged up by even more positive sentiment in US futures. S&P 500 futures are now at the highs for the day, up 1.7%, as we await the official announcement declaring Trump’s victory. For European equities, there is some mixed sentiment

The drop today brings the pair down to its lowest levels since June, with the daily decline itself set to even eclipse that seen in March 2020. The over 2% drop now is going to be the worst daily decline for EUR/USD since June 2016 amid the Brexit referendum vote. What a day. Trump’s election

Harris vs. Trump day here in Asia. Counting will commence around 6pm US Eastern time and I suspect we won’t get a definitive result before most of the US goes to bed. Apart from the election there are a few items of interest on the calendar here in the region. The New Zealand jobs report

Prior -0.1%Market index 191.4 vs 214.5 priorPurchase index 130.8 vs 137.8 priorRefinance index 513.5 vs 630.0 prior30-year mortgage rate 6.81% vs 6.73% prior Mortgage applications tanked in the past week with both purchases and refinancing activity slumping hard amid the rise in rates. Now that Trump has won the election and rates are skyrocketing even

Goldman Sachs cites potential tariff risks on the euro area following his election win today. No surprises there as this is also a key factor weighing on the euro currency as outlined here. This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

I’m not sure what the FX market is trying to tell us today but all of the USD declines from earlier today has been erased. The main argument for a dollar rally that I’ve heard in the past month is a red sweep. The idea here is that Trump and Republicans would run deficits, cut

The dollar continues to hold higher across the board but not really pushing further upside in European morning trade. USD/JPY is up 1.5% to 153.95 with the earlier high touching 154.37. Meanwhile, EUR/USD is seen down 1.5% to 1.0765 but well off lows of 1.0702 when Trump was more or less a shoo-in to win

The Associated Press has made their call and we’re seeing everyone else chime in with CBS, Fox, and CNN all making their calls as well. Even Edison Research and FiveThirtyEight are also now calling it for Trump. This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

The US dollar has taken another leg higher. That’s come with similar moves in yields and bitcoin, all signs that the vote is moving in Trump’s direction. House odds have also improved for the GOP and that will be a critical secondary factor to watch. The latest news is that Decision Desk HQ has called

The Decision Desk HQ model has called the state for Trump. Moreover, they have the projected margin at 51.2% vs 47.8%. What’s notable about this result is that it expands on Trump’s win in the state compared to 2020, when he won by 1 point. That runs against the exit poll data from Edison that

Fundamental Overview Gold is trading lower today as Trump got elected President of the US. The Republicans won the Senate, and they just need the House now to get a red sweep. That is the most bearish scenario for gold in the short-term as it would make the tax cuts easier to pass which should

Earlier today, I highlighted that Harris was running better in Sullivan county in Indiana, which was one of the first counties to report. Well now, with 98% of the votes counted, Trump is running better than he did in 2020 by about 1 point. That’s a good sign for the former President and you can

All the Trump trades have climbed as election results from Georgia and Florida come in. Trump is running decidedly better in Florida and it’s safe to say he has won the state. The stronger vote there bodes well for him but him winning that state isn’t really a surprise. Perhaps what the market is reacting

We made history for a reason tonightWe’re going to help our country healThis will be the golden age of AmericaAmerica has given us an unprecedented and powerful mandateWe have taken back control of the SenateIt also looks like we are keeping control of the House This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

Amid all the chaos and focus on the US election, let’s not forget that we have a Fed meeting as well on 7 November. As things stand, traders are still pricing in ~99% odds of a 25 bps rate cut for tomorrow. But looking out to October next year, the total rate cuts priced in

It all comes down to this now in determining whether or not we will see a red sweep in the election. The latest NYT projection has Republicans at 197 seats and Democrats at 177 seats. Remember, the magic number is 218 seats for a majority for the House. So, what has happened so far and

Its too early to be definitive but the current state of play is favourable for Trump. Indeed, the New York Times electoral college ‘needle’ is currently putting Trump on 278 electoral votes vs. 260 for Harris. The USD surged earlier as the voting favoured Trump. Key state of Georgia looks all but locked in for

I’ll update his remarks in a separate post. This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

Major indices close near the high of the day as US voter go to the pollsCrude oil futures settle at $71.99BOC Meeting minutes: BOC felt upside pressure on inflation will continue to declineThe Atlanta Fed GDPNow growth estimate 2.4% vs 2.3% lastUS sells 10-year notes at 4.347% vs 4.350% WIVideo: Canadian dollar higher into the

A snippet while we await some results out of the US election. This via an analyst at Citi speaking in a CNBC interview on Tuesday before polls closed. In brief: starting point is fairly extended valuation … predicated on very strong earnings growth follow-through into 2025concern is that with that set up, you go into

I’m not sure where the votes are here but the biggest risk to the moves we have seen so far is if Democrats gain control of the House. Betting sites have Republicans as big favorites to win it but those are thin markets. It’s really tough to crunch the numbers in that department but the

US election: The calls are officially out now, Trump has won the US presidential electionTrump: This is a magnificent victory for the American peopleThe race for control of the House is playing out accordingly for the most part thus farHouse odds swing back in favour of RepublicansThe race for control of the House remains a

Asian timezone participants are well versed in thin liquidity trade, we see it every Monday morning. It’s the case today also, markets are going to shoved around on US election counting news. Be careful, your fills may be further away from where you click the buttons. USD/JPY and EUR/USD sharp moves: This article was written

What we know so far As of 7:00 a.m. UTC, most data providers, including ABC, CBS, NBC, and CNN, projected that Donald Trump would become the next president of the United States. However, even as Trump’s victory looks almost guaranteed at this point, it is the balance of power in the U.S. Congress that will

Decision Desk HQ is reporting odds of Democrats winning the House at 57.4% but that is the narrowest it has been in the last three hours. And in terms of number of seats, they are projecting Democrats to barely pip it with 219 seats. As a reminder, 218 seats is needed for control of the

These are critical states for the election: Preliminary results of Michigan exit poll: Trump wins 42% of voters with college degrees, Harris wins 56%; Trump share up 1 pt from 2020Trump wins 53% of voters without college degrees, Harris wins 44%; Trump share up 1 pt from 2020Trump wins 48% of voters age 45+, Harris

Prior -5.8%; revised to -5.4% German manufacturing orders bounced back in September after a dip in August and this was once again affected by large orders skewing the data. There was a significant increase in orders for other vehicle construction (aircraft, ships, trains, military vehicles), which was twice as high as in the previous month.

There is a pretty clear picture in the early vote in Indiana and Kansas that shows Kamala Harris running 3-4 percentage points better than Biden did in 2020. With that, we’ve seen a tick higher in Harris odds on Kalshi to 45% from 42% in the past 30 minutes. The big caveat here is that

The NYT projection shows that Republicans have 189 seats now and Democrats at 162 seats. Of the remaining key seats in contention here, Republicans now need 19 seats and Democrats needing 29 seats to almost certainly win control of the House. There’s still plenty of seats yet to be called and the margins for some

SP Negócios, São Paulo’s investment and export promotion agency, has partnered with Polkadot to foster innovation among companies in São Paulo. Driven by the growing market demand, Polkadot is increasingly positioning itself as an ally for businesses looking to grow in an innovative, secure, and transparent way. It has been sponsoring educational initiatives through Código

This follows from the much earlier call by Decision Desk HQ. From earlier: Pundits call North Carolina for TrumpUS dollar, yields and bitcoin moves all extend as North Carolina called for TrumpTrump win in North Carolina hints that other exit polls could include shy Trump supporters This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

We will get US 10-year auction results at the top of the hour. Today’s ISM services number highlights the upside risk for yields as it showed a strong economy (though with lower prices). The market is now leaning heavily towards a January pause from the FOMC. On the run 10s are trading at 4.345% at

Prior 51.4Composite PMI 50.0 vs 49.7 prelimPrior 49.6 The euro area economy kicks start Q4 in stagnation mode with heavyweights Germany and France dragging down the overall performance. A further weakening in demand conditions is to blame but just be wary that employment conditions are also seen worsening. The latter is seeing its weakest showing

With Ohio and Texas now called, it puts them on 50 seats and needing just one more for a majority. Republicans are also holding slight leads in Pennsylvania and Wisconsin and could flip the seats there too. So, this is surely an inevitable outcome for them to take control of the Senate. From earlier: Republicans

Well, we didn’t need to wait long to see who won the US Presidential Election. Trump is the 47th President of the US. The Republicans won also the Senate and we are now just waiting to see if they manage to get the House to get a red sweep. As of now, the probabilities to

Fox News is projecting that Republicans have won 50 seats so far, with 51 needed for a majority. The NYT projection has Republicans at 48 seats, but Ohio looks almost certainly to be theirs with Bernie Moreno leading by 5 points against incumbent Sherrod Brown after 89% of votes in. Then, there’s also Texas that

Services PMI 52.4 vs. 50.5 expected and 50.5 prior.Composite PMI 51.0 vs. 49.7 prior. Key findings: Comment: This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at www.forexlive.com.

Eurostoxx +0.6%Germany DAX +0.6%France CAC 40 +0.7%UK FTSE +0.8%Spain IBEX -0.6%Italy FTSE MIB +0.6% This comes as US futures are also ramping higher on the day with Trump trades continuing to dominate the mood in broader markets. For European stocks, the worry is that Trump might come in with tariffs and invoke harsher trade conditions

People’s Bank of China USD/CNY reference rate is due around 0115 GMT. The People’s Bank of China (PBOC), China’s central bank, is responsible for setting the daily midpoint of the yuan (also known as renminbi or RMB). The PBOC follows a managed floating exchange rate system that allows the value of the yuan to fluctuate

Prior +0.6% Looking at the details, most of the drop comes from energy prices (-1.9%). If you strip that out, producer prices were actually flat on the month in September. Breaking down the other components, there were rises in prices for durable consumer goods (+0.2%) and non-durable consumer goods (+0.2%). That is slightly offset by

The Trump trades continue to roar with Nasdaq futures also seen up 1.7% and Dow futures up 2.2% currently. Meanwhile, Russell 2000 futures are marked higher by a whopping 4.7%. It all seems pretty now but at what point does higher yields start to factor into the equation for equities? Perhaps the control for the

The cryptocurrency market is evolving rapidly, and with it, advanced financial instruments like futures and options have emerged as popular tools for traders seeking to maximize their investment strategies. While these derivatives allow for speculative trades and strategic risk management, they each have unique characteristics, pros and cons, and complexities that make them suitable for

It’s still looking like a sweep for him in all of the swing states, so he’s certainly going to feel comfortable in declaring any early victory. Georgia should be officially called shortly while Arizona is leaning Trump by a slight margin. Meanwhile, here’s the latest count in the swing states under the Rust Belt: Pennsylvania:

We are beginning to get US election results coming through, with some states being ‘called’ by pundits. Don’t pay too much attention to places that are solidly Red or Blue. For example, Harris has been declared the winner in Vermont. Which was expected. Trump has been declared the winner in Kentucky and Indiana, also expected.

Bank of Japan September meeting minutes Full text is here The Bank was walking a tightrope in this meeting, and these minutes reflect the focus on balancing internal economic recovery with global economic pressures and cautious policy communication. In summary (the minutes are pages and pages long, so check out that full text link if

Prior 57.0Composite PMI 55.2Prior 56.3 The growth momentum in Spain’s services sector weakened in October but is still a solid reading nonetheless. Both sales and demand showed improvements, contributing to the strong activity. The added good news is that jobs growth also hit a 18-month high in the latest report. HCOB notes that: “Spain’s economy

Some other poll results looking at the economy. NOTE that 31% of the voters viewed the economy as the most important issue. Conditions of the nations Economy: 5% Excellernt28% Good35% Not so good32% Poor Despite the US stock indices near all time highs and up over 20% for the broader indices and unemployment at relatively

more to come This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

The EURUSD has moved to new lows and is testing the lows from the last two weeks. That area comes between 1.07605 and 1.07767. A move below that level is needed to give more momentum to the sellers. A move below that level opens the door for more downside control. Conversely, bounce and traders are

Prior was 4.066%Bid to cover 2.58 vs 2.48 prior Virtually everyone thought this one would tail because of election risks but someone showed up and we got a 0.3 bps stop through. I still find it hard to believe that will undo any pre-election angst but I believe it sets up the bond market for

As of the current tally, Wisconsin has counted 88% of votes with Trump holding a 4-point lead. And he’s still holding a lead in all of the swing states that have yet to be officially called. It’s all a matter of time and with this, the only thing left to watch out for is control

The US election continues to hog all the spotlight and things will stay that way for at least another 24 hours. Trump trades are at work now as the dollar rockets higher alongside yields, stocks, and Bitcoin. The only thing left to watch now will be whether or not we will see a red sweep

Via oilprice dot com on twitter: — Expectations I had seen centred on: Headline crude +1.1mn barrelsDistillates -1.1 mn bblsGasoline -0.9 mn — This data point is from a privately-conducted survey by the American Petroleum Institute (API): It’s a survey of oil storage facilities and companies The official report is due Wednesday morning US time.

Here’s the latest results for the three swing states under the Rust Belt: Pennsylvania: Trump +4 (82% of votes in)Wisconsin: Trump +3 (71% of votes in)Michigan: Trump +5 (43% of votes in) With Trump also slated to take Arizona and Georgia eventually, it looks like it’s all over for Harris barring some miraculous turnaround. Don’t

Fox News has also called Pennsylvania in favour of Trump. With 93% of votes in, he is leading by 3 points there. In any case, this was inevitable and just a matter of time after the votes of Pennsylvania and Wisconsin didn’t really favour Harris whatsoever since the halfway mark here. Edison Research has come

The independent voters which account for 31% of the Georgia votes are leaning 54% to 43% for Trump. That was reverse from 2020 with Biden gaining from the independent voters.. Florida numbers are higher for Trump vs 2020 with 50% in and Trump leading 53.2% vs 45.9% in 2020. That was 51.2% to 47.9% in

AP calls North Carolina for TrumpRepublicans close in on control for US SenateGBPUSD moves down to test 50% and swing area down to 1.28449Betting markets see Trump victory as a shoo-in nowReminder: Here are some of the widely-touted Trump tradesIt’s looking more and more like a red sweepThe peso signals Mexico isn’t looking forward to

Pennsylvania: Trump +3 (59% of votes in)Wisconsin: Trump +1.6 (55% of votes in) The other key one under the Rust Belt is Michigan but the state has so far only counted 25% of votes. It is also Trump favoured at +0.6 now but with every percentage, that seems to swing around between Trump and Harris.

Latest update from the New York Times model. Trump has performed strongly, taking (or ahead in) swing states he needed (they both needed!). Can Harris still win – well, yeah, that’s what an 88% chance for Trump implies. But sheesh, 12% is not good odds. Red Sweep looks likely: It’s looking more and more like

If you recall back in 2020, betting markets went as far as placing the odds of Trump winning around 80%. So, these odds at the moment are staggering and you probably have to consider that what happened in 2020 is still in the back of everyone’s minds. In any case, what betting markets see at

The Bank of Canada meeting minutes for the October 2024 meeting. The BOC cut rates by 50 basis points at the October 23 meeting: Ahead of Bank of Canada’s October 23 rate announcement, governing council felt upside pressures on inflation will continue to decline, so policy did not need to be as restrictive.Governing council members

The pattern I’m seeing so far is very clear: Trump is doing better in rural areas while Harris is doing better in the suburbs than Biden. That said, the suburbs might be somewhat of an illusion because the mail-in votes (which skew Democrat) are usually counted first. Betting sites put Trump decidedly ahead but I

The EURUSD is continuing its move to the upside despite stronger services ISM nonmanufacturing data today. Employment moved higher as well. New orders were lower and prices paid was lower as well. Of course the election voting is ongoing with the results still hours aways starting with Georgia, one of the epicenters from 2020 election

The USDCAD moved down to test the target support at the end of the trading day yesterday at 1.3813. The low price reached 1.3817 and the price decline slowed. The pair has moved back higher on the back of the early success of the Trump team. The price has now moved up to the 200-hour

Decision Desk with the call. NC has 16 electoral votes and was (is) viewed as a key to win. Decision Desk HQ projects Trump wins North Carolina’s electoral college votes. 16 of them. Dollar update: This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

Good morning, afternoon and evening all. Any charts, technical analysis, trade ideas, thoughts, views, ForexLive traders would like to share and discuss with fellow ForexLive traders, please do so: This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

Edison Research has just published an exit poll of Georgia: Trump wins 42% of voters under age 45, Harris wins 56%; Trump share down 1 pt from 2020Trump wins 56% of voters age 45+, Harris wins 43%; Trump share up 2 pts from 2020Trump wins 59% of white voters, Harris wins 31%; Trump share up

Reuters Tankan is a monthly report whereas the Bank of Japan Tankan is quarterly (more on these two surveys below). Respondents citing worries over China and … wait for it … high inflation. November manufacturing index +5 prior +7 in October Non-manufacturing +19 in November, easing for the 5th consecutive month prior +20 Outlooks: Manufacturing

A poor report, the New Zealand economy struggled under high rates set by the Reserve Bank of New Zealand to combat inflation. The Bank has begun its interest rate cut cycle but it’ll take some time for that to work through the economy and into employment figures. This report: employment change fell more than expectedthe

The major US indices close near highs as the US voters go to the polls. The general rule was that stocks would benefit more from a Trump victory, but who really knows. Share of Trump Media is closing the day down -1.16% and is down -3.0% in after-hours trading at $32.83. That comes after trading

Secretary to the Australian Treasury, Dr Steven Kennedy, is giving testimony in the Australian parliament, at the Senate Budget Estimates, Economics Legislation Committee. You can view the live event here. In brief: Interest rates will come down, but not to pre-pandemic levelshousehold consumption is subduedhouseholds are rebuilding savings underlying inflation is useful for the direction

The USDCAD is moving lower in sympathy with the overall US dollar weakness ahead of the election vote and results (at least some of them) later today. The move lower was also helped by the failure to keep the upside momentum going after breaking to a new high for the year (and going back to

The Atlanta Fed GDPNow growth estimate for Q4 came in marginally higher at 2.4% vs 2.3% last. In their own words: he GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the fourth quarter of 2024 is 2.4 percent on November 5, up from 2.3 percent on November 1. After recent releases

It’s the US Presidential Election Day so I wouldn’t expect the market to care about anything else. Although this week we have some key economic releases and central bank decisions, it’s really all about the US election. This week is basically divided in three phases: the pre-election noise, the election and the post-election trading. 15:00

I spoke with Reuters today about the Canadian dollar. It’s surprisingly stronger given that Trump trades are working. “We could just be seeing some position squaring. The Canadian dollar has been a heavily shorted currency,” said Adam Button, chief currency analyst at ForexLive. “The Canadian dollar is one of the clear election night trades along

UK October final services PMI 52.0 vs 51.8 prelimJapan’s largest industrial union to target a standard 6% increase in total wages – reportAUD/USD holds higher in post-RBA tradingEuropean equities lightly changed to kick start the dayWhat are the main events for today?What are the key times to watch for the US election results?Eurostoxx futures flat

A poor auction of gilts today has been compounded by a broad selloff in global fixed income following a strong US ISM services report. That’s helped to press UK 10-year yields 7 bps higher and marginally above last week’s high. The Chancellor’s October 30 budget unveiled a significant fiscal expansion, exceeding market expectations across all

The S&P 500 is up 1.0% today and it’s being helped along by some ‘Trump trades’, including shares of his social media company DJT, which are up 14%. Over in non-meme markets, the KRE regional bank ETF is up 1.3% and widely seen as a Trump trade. Shares of Albertsons, whose merger is less-likely to

Closing changes: Stoxx 600 flatGerman DAX +0.5%France CAC +0.5%UK FTSE 100 -0.1%Spain IBEX +0.2%Italy’s FTSE MIB -0.2% The DAX struggled last week but rebounded on Friday and today. I don’t know if that’s about tariff risk or about the poor state of the German economy. The ECB is going to cut in December but there

The US election day will keep the markets on edge, but technically, the process should be followed. The price action and the tools will help to define the the bias, define the risk and define the targets.. In this video, I take a look at the EURUSD, USDJPY and GBPUSD and outline the key levels

ANZ-Roy Morgan Australian Consumer Confidence index, a weekly survey of persistent pessimists it seems. Comes in at 86.5 prior 86.4 ANZ add: Weekly inflation expectations were unchanged at 4.6%, but the 4wk moving average fell 0.1ppt to its lowest reading since Sep 2021. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

Jambo, a leading builder of web3 mobile infrastructure, today announced its partnership with Lif3, the revolutionary omni-chain DeFi Layer-1 ecosystem, to offer millions of Jambo phone users in over 120 countries, with easier access to peer-to-peer crypto payments through the Lif3 mobile app. Founded by serial entrepreneur and web3 investor Harry Yeh, Lif3’s strategic collaboration

A newswire report suggests Trump’s campaign has had discussions about declaring a victory before any official calls are made, citing sources. There is some angst about this in political circles but he did the same thing in 2020 and it didn’t accomplish anything. The report says: Trump could prematurely claim victory sometime after the first

Good morning, afternoon and evening all. Any charts, technical analysis, trade ideas, thoughts, views, ForexLive traders would like to share and discuss with fellow ForexLive traders, please do so: This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

Attention seeking dictators, they are everywhere! Kim Jong Un fires off another ballistic missile. South Korean military with the report. These are usually targeted at the East Sea (Sea of Japan). Which is difficult for them to miss. Back in the olden days this would have been a yen positive. But everyone is jaded with

Prior was -70.4 billionGoods trade -108.7 billion vs -108.2 billion prelimExports -1.2%Imports +3.0% The deficit jumped to the highest since 2022 because of a rush to import items ahead of a feared port strike. Key Details: Exports fell on declining civilian aircraft shipments (-$1.7B)Pharmaceutical prep exports dropped $2.0BCrude oil exports declined $1.3BConsumer goods imports jumped

Prior 52.4Composite PMI 51.8 vs 51.7 prelimPrior 52.6 Services activity continues to see slowing momentum in October, with the weakest rise in business activity since November last year. Adding to that, employment conditions showed a fall for the first time this year. So, that is something that the BOE might want to take note of

Headline CPI +1.3% y/y in October, weakest level since January 2021 expected 1.4%, prior 1.6%for the m/m 0.0% Core CPI +1.8% down from 2.0% in September This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

Wall Street Journal convey the info from analysts at Citi: A win by Trump, who proposes tax cuts, would likely support equities instead of goldGold fell by 8.2% in the month that followed Trump’s 2016 victoryGold is held by some as a hedge against uncertainty, has tended to struggle in the weeks following most U.S.

Fundamental Overview The US Dollar started the week on the backfoot as the odds of a Harris victory jumped higher leading to a pullback in the Trump’s trades. Everything hinges on the US election now with a red sweep seen as the most bullish scenario for the greenback, while a blue sweep as the most

Market pricing is still showing over 100bp of Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) rate cuts through to the end of 2025. BRock says this is too much, citing:1. A solid economy “U.S. Q3 GDP data last week showed consumer spending is still driving overall economic growth. Average monthly job creation over the past three months

Schnabel’s event looks more likely to bring about pertinent headlines for markets: 1430 GMT / 0930 US Eastern time Keynote speech by ECB President Christine Lagarde at French Competition Authority’s 15th Anniversary Event1830 GMT / 1330 US Eastern time ECB Board member Isabel Schnabel to speak at Michael Chae Seminar on Macroeconomic Policy at Harvard

Prelim was 54.3Prior was 55.2Composite index vs 54.3 prelim (54.0 prior) The ISM services index is due at the top of the hour. This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

The Reserve Bank of Australia remains gung-ho on beating inflation, unfussed by high rates given the resilient labour market: Reserve Bank of Australia leaves cash rate unchanged at 4.35%, as expected Full text is here, the first one is today’s decision, the second link is to the SoMP (what’s the SoMP? ,,, scroll right down

Best since Sept 2023Prior was 54.9Business activity index 57.2 vs 59.9 priorEmployment 53.0 vs 48.1 priorNew orders 57.4 vs 59.4 priorPrices paid 58.1 vs 59.4 priorSupplier deliveries 56.4 vs 52.1 priorInventories 57.2 vs 58.1 priorBacklog of orders 47.7 vs 48.3 priorNew export orders 51.7 vs 56.7 priorImports 50.2 vs 52.7 priorInventory sentiment 53.0 vs 54.0

Hundreds of millions of Americans head to the ballots today to vote for who they believe should be their next President: Kamala Harris or Donald Trump. Although more than 81 million ballots have been cast early this year, most of the electorate will do so today, ultimately determining who will reside in the White House

AUD/USD bounced a little around 0.6580 to 0.6590 levels on the decision but that’s not indicative of much. The pair remains rangebound, stuck within a 19 pips range on the day. That is telling of the reaction to the RBA’s expected decision here. So, what’s the main takeaway that we can gather from their latest

We have to make forecasts but they are inherently difficultThe further out you forecast, the bigger the error bandWe use the market pricing as part of our cash rate forecastThe forecast and pricing of the current cash rate path is as good as anyBut we are prepared to move if the data suggests to do

Fundamental Overview The US Dollar started the week on the backfoot as the odds of a Harris victory jumped higher leading to a pullback in the Trump’s trades. Everything hinges on the US election now with a red sweep seen as the most bullish scenario for the greenback, while a blue sweep as the most

Fundamental Overview The US Dollar started the week on the backfoot as the odds of a Harris victory jumped higher leading to a pullback in the Trump’s trades. Everything hinges on the US election now with a red sweep seen as the most bullish scenario for the greenback, while a blue sweep as the most

Perhaps the best thing to do to re-live the timeline from 2020, go into the ForexLive time machine and see how we covered it. Early in the evening and before the election, betting odds initially favored Biden. However, as results came in from states like Florida and early returns in Texas, odds began to favor

Eurostoxx -0.1%Germany DAX -0.1%France CAC 40 -0.1%UK FTSE flatSpain IBEX -0.1%Italy FTSE MIB +0.1% This comes as US futures are also looking relatively muted. S&P 500 futures are up marginally by 0.1%, the same as Nasdaq futures and Dow futures. There’s not much to scrutinise with the market mood today as traders and investors are

The RBA held its cash rate steady in a more hawkish decision, though largely expected. AUD/USD was barely changed and only hovered within a 15 pips range after the statement and press conference. But the pair is extending higher now, up to 0.6618 from around 0.6590 earlier in the day. There’s not much to it

German DAX futures +0.1%French CAC 40 futures flatUK FTSE futures -0.1% S&P 500 futures are also just marginally up by 0.1% as the changes among broader markets are relatively light. The dollar is keeping mostly little changed as well but limping slightly as we look to the session ahead. The aussie is pulling higher though,

AUD little changed after hawkish RBAReserve Bank of Australia leaves cash rate unchanged at 4.35%, as expectedReserve Bank of Australia statement due at the bottom of hour – on hold expectedEuropean Central Bank President Lagarde speaking Tuesday, Schnabel alsoTokyo Stock Exchange extended trading hours for 1st time in 70 years, starting today.China’s Premier Li –

Prior was -1.1 billionExports $63.88 billion vs $64.31 billion prior Imports $65.15 billion vs $65.41 billion priorTrade deficit narrows to -$1.3B from -$1.5B priorTrade surplus with US widens to $8.3B from $7.8BExports to US rose 1.6%, imports up 0.8%Energy exports -2.6% on lower crude oil pricesAircraft exports jumped 10.3% on higher US private jet shipmentsMetal/mineral

Prior 2.6% No change to the Swiss jobless rate as it continues to keep steady on the month. That being said, it has crept higher and up from the low of 1.9% seen during last year. This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

Fundamental Overview The US Dollar started the week on the backfoot as the odds of a Harris victory jumped higher leading to a pullback in the Trump’s trades. Everything hinges on the US election now with a red sweep seen as the most bullish scenario for the greenback, while a blue sweep as the most

The pollsters are indicating that it is going to be a very tight race between Harris and Trump. And that will definitely keep markets on edge until we get to the early round of votes until midday later. The next 24 to 48 hours is potentially going to be havoc in markets, as traders and

But regardless of the closing time of the polls, different states will have different procedures in counting votes and that could see the results spill over to the next one or two days (or more). But as outlined here, the main focus will be on the key battleground states i.e. swing states once again. So,

The People’s Bank of China set the onshore yuan (CNY) reference rate for the trading session ahead. USD/CNY is the onshore yuan. Its permitted to trade plus or minus 2% from this daily reference rate.CNH is the offshore yuan. USD /CNH has no restrictions on its trading range.A significantly stronger or weaker rate than expected

The parent company of the Tokyo Stock Exchange, Japan Exchange Group, confirmed it extended regular trading hours by 30 minutes beginning todayfirst extension of trading hours in 70 yearsmarket will operate from 9 a.m. to 3:30 p.m. (with an hour long break for lunch) This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

People’s Bank of China USD/CNY reference rate is due around 0115 GMT. The People’s Bank of China (PBOC), China’s central bank, is responsible for setting the daily midpoint of the yuan (also known as renminbi or RMB). The PBOC follows a managed floating exchange rate system that allows the value of the yuan to fluctuate

The U.S. presidential election draws near, and investors are on high alert as the outcomes of Kamala Harris’s and Donald Trump’s contrasting economic policies could have significant ramifications for the financial markets. With key decisions looming around tax rates, regulation, energy policy, and trade, the potential for market volatility increases depending on who gets into

There are just a couple to take note of, as highlighted in bold. And they are for EUR/USD at the 1.0850 and 1.0900 levels. Considering the focus on the US election, this will keep price action more boxed in going into European trading and before we get to the election rush later in the day.

British Retail Consortium (BRC) total sales in October +0.6% y/y, weakest growth since July prior (September) +2.0%like-for-like sales +0.3% y/y (prior +1.7%) Barclaycard UK October consumer spending +0.7% y/y, also the weakest growth since July prior +1.2%prior +2.0% From the reports, in brief: Factors like budget uncertainty, delayed purchases until Black Friday, and a later

Fundamental Overview The US Dollar started the week on the backfoot as the odds of a Harris victory jumped higher leading to a pullback in the Trump’s trades. Everything hinges on the US election now with a red sweep seen as the most bullish scenario for the greenback, while a blue sweep as the most

MUFG note conflicting influences on GBP: slower pace of interest-rate cuts by the Bank of England should support, by keeping rates higher for longer relative to other major economies But: loss of investor confidence in the Labour government’s fiscal consolidation plan could pose a downward risk (via via any ongoing selloff in gilts) Bank of

Caixin Services PMI for October comes in at 52.0 expected 50.5, prior 50.3 Composite 51.9 prior 50.3 This is the final of the China PMIs for October. Earlier: Official Non manufacturing 50.2China Caixin Manufacturing PMI for October 50.3 From the report, in brief on the services result today: Business activity and new orders grew for

UA Zensen is Japan’s largest industrial trade union and represents workers mostly at small and medium-sized firms. And once again – similar to earlier this year – they are calling for at least a standard 6% increase in total wages going into the spring wage negotiations in 2025. For some context, the wage hike asked

Barclays expects the RBA to adopt a hawkish tone at its November meeting, reinforcing the message that rate cuts are unlikely in 2024. With the Australian economy operating above potential and core inflation still above target, the RBA is expected to signal a steady path for now, while providing updated economic forecasts. Key Points: Hawkish

High yield 4.152%WI level at the time of the auction 4.143%Tail 0.9% vs 6-month average of -0.2%Bid to cover 2.60X vs 6 month average of 2.57XDirects 9.6% vs 6 month average of 15.7%Indirects 70.6% vs 6 month average of 66.5%Dealers 19.75% vs 6 month average of 15.76%. Auction Grade: D+ Highlights or lowlights: The 3

The index tracks the prices of 17 of New Zealand’s major commodity exports, including dairy products, meat, wool, forestry products, and seafood. ANZ World Commodity Price Index, from the report: +1.4% m/m in October stronger prices were recorded for all major sectors excluding meat and fibre In New Zealand dollar terms +3.4% m/m as the

China’s Premier Li Qiang is addressing an Import Expo in Shanghai. Must build a stronger consensus for opening upChina will upgrade free trade zonesChina will explore free trade and investment agreements with other countries China will continue to open telecommunications, internet, healthcare, and other sectors for investment China stands ready to work with all sides

The Reserve Bank of New Zealand is on record as regarding two years as a reasonable time for the transmission of monetary policy into the real economy. The first rate cut from them was in August 2024. Governor Orr: Real economy is lagging reduction in interest rates, that’s a concern Anyway, the RBNZ, like central

The US treasury will auction off the three year notes at the top of the hour. The six-month averages of the major components shows: Tail: -0.2 basis pointsBid to cover: 2.57XDIrects (domestic buyers): 18.7%Indirects (international Buyers): 66.5%Dealers (they take the rest) 15.8% THe high yield last month came in at 4.13% The current 3 year

Judo Bank / S&P Global final services and composite PMIs for Australia in October 2024. The preliminary readings can be found here. In summary from the report: Services sector indicators were stronger than initial (“flash”) results, showing improved business conditions at October’s end.Key activity indicators are in expansionary territory, with signs of strengthening economic activity

Bank of America on Q3 earnings: nearly 80% of S&P 500 index have reported so farsigns that the season will remain strongconsensus EPS is now up 2% vs. where it stood as of October 1, which means its tracking +6% YoY, in line with our forecast 68%/57%/45% beat on EPS/sales/both so far, compared to the

There are still upside risks to inflationToo early to analyse any Trump scenario before the election is doneGovernment and central bank are not in disagreement on the economic outlookWe have the right policy settings at the momentIf economy turns down by more than expected, we will be ready to act This article was written by

I posted on this yesterday: US election imminent – JP Morgan says Fed to pause rate cuts on a Trump win The conclusions reached by JPM are not really news, any analyst with two brain cells to rub together can see that profligacy will lead to higher inflation and higher rates. This is not in

Credit Agricole anticipates the RBA will hold rates at this week’s meeting, with Australian inflation and activity data aligning with forecasts, supporting a continued hawkish stance relative to other G10 central banks. Despite stable inflation and moderate retail activity, the RBA is expected to maintain a neutral outlook, with rate cuts not likely until early

Previews posted: AUD traders heads up – Reserve Bank of Australia meeting underway – statement due TuesdayThe RBA meeting next week marks a year of unchanged cash rate at 4.35% – no cut until 2025Its unanimous, Reserve Bank of Australia to hold cash rate at 4.35% at next week’s meetingCredit Agricole: What we expect from

Reserve Bank of Australia left its cash rate unchanged and didn’t signal any change in policy is immininet. Check these out, lifted from the barrage of headlines below: Underlying inflation remains too highInflation is not expected to return sustainably to the midpoint of the target until 2026The labour market remains tight, and demand for labour

Legend of Arcadia (LoA), a new card-based RPG set in an expansive universe inspired by Kingdom Hearts, is bringing a community-driven operational model to Web3 gaming. With a focus on sustainable growth, LoA aims to establish itself as a leading platform by integrating blockchain technology, unique NFT mechanics, and community-centric features that foster long-term player

I suspect we’ll be hearing “wait until after the election” from many in the markets here in Asea today as a reason to sit on hands. I first heard it about two months ago! Seriously! Anyway, the calendar today features the final PMI from China then the Reserve Bank of Australia. Earlier PMIs from China

The Reserve Bank of New Zealand have begun their rate cut cycle, cutting by 75bp so far. Another cut is expected at the next meeting, which isn’t until February! economic conditions remain challenging, business is doing it toughgeopolitical tensions do really matter, key risk for the economy This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at

The RBA will be announcing its rate decision later tonight/tomorrow in Australia. The expectation is for no change in policy. Focus will be on what is ahead for the central bank Technically, the price high reached 0.66184 in the early Asian session. That took the price to the low of a swing area between 0.66189

The major US stock indices are closing lower to start the US election week. The Dow 30 fared the worst of the major 3 indices. The final number are showing: Dow industrial average -257.60 points or -0.61% at 41794.60S&P -16.11 points or -0.28% at 5712.69Nasdaq -59.93 points or -0.22% t 18179.98 The small cap Russell

US September factory orders -0.5% versus -0.5% expectedUS October employment trends 107.66 versus 107.58 last monthThe US treasury auctions off $58B of 3-year notes at a high yield of 4.152%OPEC survey: Output rises 190K bpd led by Libyan recoveryOPEC secretary general Al Ghais: We are very positive on demand Markets: Gold up $2 to $2737US

Crude oil futures are settling at $71.47. That is up $1.98 or 2.85%. Helping to support the price today is: Supply Concerns: OPEC delayed its planned oil output increase for December by a month, tightening supply expectations.Geopolitical Tensions: Rising tensions between Iran and Israel fueled market concerns, with reports suggesting both sides are preparing for

The next few days are some big ones for the markets and for you too as a trader in the markets. The US election is a toss-up, which given the history of the past elections will likely lead to chaos. Everything and anything can happen. If it were a sporting event, it would be considered

Today is going to be one of those synthetic Sundays when there’s nothing on the calendar with the market awaiting a key event. This key event is of course the US Presidential Election tomorrow. Today we just get some low tier data releases and the final PMIs for the Eurozone. Nothing that changes the big

It’s election week. It doesn’t get any bigger than this in US politics and polls show this will be a razor-tight race. At this time last week, Trump looked to have an edge but some polling numbers over the weekend upended that and highlighted the possibility that Harris is being underestimated. None of it leaves

Deutsche Bank is out with a look at market history around elections ahead of tomorrow’s vote. Market reactions to US elections since 2000 have been mixed – S&P 500 up in 3 cases, down in 3 by end of NovemberTreasury yields fell in 4 elections, rose in 2 The key point is that markets price

A business day after the US jobs report which showed lower NFP jobs and lower revisions but the unemployment rate remaining steady, the Conference Board Employment Trends Index is coming out marginally higher after a revised lower number last month. Prior month 108.48 revised lower to 107.58Employment Trends Index for October 107.66“The ETI was nearly

OPEC pumped 26.33 million barrels per day in October, up 195k bpd from September, according to Reuters’ influential secondary sources survey. The rise was centered on Libya, which had curtailed production during a political dispute in September. Libya is not subject to quotas. Venezuela also expanded production to the highest since 2020 while Iraq and

The world of foreign exchange is multi-variate so you never get a full grasp on what’s moving a currency on any given day. Economics always overshadows politics and the US election has been playing out in the background for months. There are certainly election trades in equities and other pockets of markets but big macro

Good morning, afternoon and evening all. Any charts, technical analysis, trade ideas, thoughts, views, ForexLive traders would like to share and discuss with fellow ForexLive traders, please do so: This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

Prior -13.8 The reading marks a second straight month of improvement but it’s hardly anything to shout about. A slight improvement to the current situation index makes up for this as expectations stagnated with a -3.8 reading for this month. Sentix also warns that “no positive turnaround scenario can be derived” from the latest data.

There are some challenges but the picture is not as negative as some make it to beThe world economy is doing wellWe are very positive on demand both in the short and long-termPeak demand is not going to happen, the world keeps on growing His comments come after the bloc decided to delay the planned

The USD is lower to start the trading week (helped by the Pres. Polls over the weekend). The moves in the 3 major currency pairs did move to corresponding technical targets and stalled. EURUSD: For the EURUSD, it move up to test the 50% midpoint of the move up from April 2024 low and the

Fundamental Overview Crude oil opened the day with a positive gap today following the weekend news of OPEC+ delaying the December production hike. In the big picture, central bank easing generally leads the manufacturing cycle, so we can expect global growth to pick up and support the crude oil market. One risk that might be

The influential Selzer poll out of Iowa showed a Harris lead over the weekend. That is not supposed to happen, and led to the USD moviing lower on the news. The US yields are lower. The US stocks are trading mixed (Dow modestly lower, S&P and Nasdaq modestly higher). European stocks are mostly higher. 10

Prior month: -0.2% (revised to -0.8%)Factory goods orders ex transportation +0.1% vs -0.1% prior (revised to -0.2%)Durable goods orders -0.7% vs -0.8% preliminary. Last month was -0.8%Durable goods ex transportation +0.5% vs +0.4% preliminary. Last month +0.6%Durable goods ex defense -1.1% versus -1.1% preliminary. Last month -1.3%Durable goods nondefense capital goods orders ex-air +0.7% versus

The People’s Bank of China set the onshore yuan (CNY) reference rate for the trading session ahead. USD/CNY is the onshore yuan. Its permitted to trade plus or minus 2% from this daily reference rate.CNH is the offshore yuan. USD /CNH has no restrictions on its trading range.A significantly stronger or weaker rate than expected

All eyes will be on the United States on Tuesday, 5 November 2024, as the world awaits the outcome of the contest between Kamala Harris and Donald Trump. With the countdown clock to the 2024 US elections beginning to tick down towards polling day, markets are starting to brace themselves for what is yet to

The move here is to largely deal with “hidden debt” or what is intricately known as debt arising from local government financing vehicles (LGFV). These are off-balance sheet debt that are incurred by local governments to finance big projects and infrastructure. For some context, local governments in the past were not allowed to sell bonds

Rate cuts by year-end Fed: 45 bps (98% probability of rate cut at the upcoming meeting) 2025: 118 bps ECB: 22 bps (90% probability of rate cut at the upcoming meeting) 2025: 120 bps BoE: 31 bps (90% probability of rate cut at the upcoming meeting) 2025: 93 bps BoC: 35 bps (57% probability of

The dollar opened with a gap lower today before keeping lower since Asia trading. The needle hasn’t really moved since we got to European morning trade, with market players waiting on potentially more developments in the polls later in US. In the case of USD/JPY, the pair is sticking closer to 152.00 after having earlier

The USDCAD broke higher at the end of last week and in the process extended above high from August at 1.39458. The high price reached 1.3958 and closed the week at 1.39484. However, after the weekend election poll news, yields moved lower, the USD moved lower and the USDCAD gapped down as well. That took

Oil is off to a strong start to the week. It gapped 80-cents higher at the Asian open and has continued higher. It’s up $1.91 to $71.40, which is the highest since October 25. The main driver is the OPEC+ decision to extend voluntary production curbs for an additional month. Some oil was scheduled to

Prior 44.6 No change to the initial estimate as the French manufacturing sector stays in contraction territory. New orders observed an accelerated pace of decline with employment conditions also starting to be hit harder. The latter will be a concern to watch if it becomes more widespread in the months ahead, and not just for

China Commerce Minister met with Australia’s Trade Minister on Sunday China readout comment: China hopes Australia will continue to improve its business environment and treat Chinese companies fairly and equitably Right back at ya buddy! This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

Eurostoxx flatGermany DAX flatFrance CAC 40 -0.1%UK FTSE +0.1%Spain IBEX +0.2%Italy FTSE MIB +0.1% That opposed to the more decent moves in FX and bonds, but even that hasn’t changed much since Asia. The overall mood is rather tentative now with S&P 500 futures also losing a little ground to be up marginally by 0.1%.

I posted back in October the dates of China’s National People’s Congress (NPC), November 4 to 8. The NPC is the country’s highest legislative body, serving as a key component of its government structure. It convenes annually to set national policy, approve budgets, and pass laws. In addition, the NPC formally elects leaders, such as

With its recent launch, Xlence is quickly positioning itself as a promising option in the online trading world. This new platform emphasizes transparency, education, and accessibility, aiming to make trading a simpler and more empowering experience for users. In a recent announcement, Xlence laid out its mission to provide traders with a supportive and versatile

People’s Bank of China USD/CNY reference rate is due around 0115 GMT. The People’s Bank of China (PBOC), China’s central bank, is responsible for setting the daily midpoint of the yuan (also known as renminbi or RMB). The PBOC follows a managed floating exchange rate system that allows the value of the yuan to fluctuate

The major US stock indices are moving lower from the get-go led by the NASDAQ index which is down -0.64%. The price opened at 18220, and is currently trading 100 points lower at 18120. A snapshot of the major indices currently shows: Dow industrial average -174.39 points or -0.41% at 41877.80S&P -16.53 points or -0.29%

After a bit of a lackluster start to the session in Europe, we’re starting to see things pick up again now nearing US trading. The dollar opened with a gap lower with focus on the US election tomorrow and is now starting to track back to the lows for the day. USD/JPY is back down

Final Manufacturing PMI 43.0 vs. 42.6 expected and 40.6 prior. Key findings: HCOB Germany Manufacturing PMI at 43.0 (Sep: 40.6). 3-month high. HCOB Germany Manufacturing PMI Output Index at 42.8 (Sep: 41.3). 2-month high. Deeper cuts to output prices signalled amid strong competition. Comment: Commenting on the PMI data, Jonas Feldhusen, Junior Economist at Hamburg

Headlines: Dollar stays pinned down alongside yields ahead of US tradingDollar on the backfoot with focus on the US election tomorrowTreasury yields checked back after change in US election odds since the weekendWeekly update on interest rate expectationsEurozone November Sentix investor confidence -12.8 vs -12.5 expectedEurozone October final manufacturing PMI 46.0 vs 45.9 prelimGermany October

Prior 53.0 Spain continues to be the shining light for Europe and is a contrast to Germany. Looking at the details here, both production and new orders both rose sharply, which encouraged greater purchasing and recruitment activity amongst firms. HCOB notes that: “It was a strong start to the final quarter for Spain’s manufacturing sector.

German DAX futures +0.1%UK FTSE futures -0.1% European indices are holding more tentative, following the gains on Friday last week. Investors will be watchful of the developments in the US with the election coming up tomorrow. S&P 500 futures are holding slightly more optimistic though, up 0.3% but owing much to tech shares. Dow futures

Australian-founded broker FP Markets further cemented its position as a market leader, winning ‘Most Trusted Broker – Global’, ‘Broker of the Year – Asia’, and ‘Fastest Growing Broker – LATAM’ at the inaugural Finance Magnates Annual Award (FMAA) Gala. The event was held on Wednesday, 23 October, at the Lemon Park Venue in Nicosia, Cyprus.

US election imminent – JP Morgan says Fed to pause rate cuts on a Trump winChina’s annual parliament is underway – expected to approve more fiscal stimulus measuresUSD/JPY back under 152.00 – prospect of market volatility a headwind for yen carry tradeEuropean Central Bank speakers on Monday include Patsalides, Elderson, Buch, McCaulAbout that US$3000 gold

Manufacturing PMI 46.9 vs. 48.6 expected and 48.3 prior. Key findings: Sharper decline in new orders signalled amid subdued export sales. Stocks of purchases depleted at one of the sharpest rates on record. Input and output prices fall. Comment: Commenting on the PMI data, Jonas Feldhusen, Junior Economist at Hamburg Commercial Bank, said: “Italy’s manufacturing