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1300 GMT/0900 US Eastern time: Bank of England MPC member Catherine Mann speaks at panel discussion:at the Reinventing Bretton Woods Global macro economy in the world ‘Financial system in a new world’, Washington DC 1975 GMT/1545 US Eastern time Mike Gill Memorial Lecture by Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey at the CFTC Bank of […]

Japan’s Deputy Chief Cabinet Secretary Kazuhiko Aoki has not shifted USD/JPY much at all with his comments: No comment on FX levelsDesirable for currencies to move stably reflecting economic fundamentalsClosely watching FX moves with a sense of urgencyGovt watching forex moves closely including for speculative moves This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

Manufacturing PMI 42.6 vs 40.8 expected and 40.6 prior.Services PMI 51.4 vs 50.6 expected and 50.6 prior.Composite PMI 48.4 vs 47.6 expected and 47.5 prior. Key findings: HCOB Flash Germany Composite PMI Output Index(1) at 48.4 (Sep: 47.5). 2-month high. HCOB Flash Germany Services PMI Business Activity Index(2) at 51.4 (Sep: 50.6). 3-month high. HCOB

€STR futures are showing odds of a 50 bps rate cut to be ~20% currently. But as per money market pricing yesterday, those odds went up to as high as 40% following this report here. I’d say traders are pricing in something somewhere in between that, and perhaps closer to the latter than the former

Prior was 0.716m (revised to 0.709m)Sales up 4.1% vs -2.3% prior Earlier today, Whirlpool warned about a soft housing market. “General housing market… is still in a very soft spot. And that’s — we all know, is ultimately driven by mortgage rates. But then the pre-election consumer sentiment is just not good,” said CEO Marc

Data from earlier is here: South Korean Q3 GDP comes in well under estimates: +0.1% q/q (vs. +0.5% expected) A Bank of Korea official with remarks: Growth in IT exports slowingWill need to examine whether there is change in growth trend for next economic forecasts in November There are many factors raising uncertainty over exportsThis

Economic weakness suggests we could get to 2% inflation earlier than end-2025We should not remain in restrictive territory when we get to targetServices weak, industry not recovering Someone in Europe gets it. This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

Final Sept reading was 55.2Manufacturing 47.8 vs 47.5 expectedPrior manufacturing was 47.3 priorComposite 54.3 vs 54.0 prior These numbers are a touch hot, highlighting once again that the US economy is fine. Commenting on the data, Chris Williamson, Chief Business Economist at S&P Global Market Intelligence said: “October saw business activity continue to grow at

Eurostoxx +0.3%Germany DAX +0.2%France CAC 40 +0.4%UK FTSE +0.4%Spain IBEX -0.1%Italy FTSE MIB +0.3% For European indices, they not only have to deal with overall equities sentiment on the day but also PMI data in the next hour. So, look out for that. In the meantime, US futures are keeping a little higher at the

The USDCAD experienced a decline in the European and early North American sessions but rebounded strongly after testing support near 1.3813, its earlier weekly floor. This upward swing has brought the pair back to the swing area between 1.38337 and 1.38475, with the price momentarily reaching 1.3852 and encountering resistance. Currently, buyers are in control,

Prior was -18Composite index vs -8 prior This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

1345 GMT / 0945 US Eastern time Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland President Beth Hammack welcome remarks before the “Inflation: Drivers and Dynamics 2024” event hosted by the Center for Inflation Research at the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland and the European Central Bank Hammack is the sole Fed speaker I have on the calendar.

The inaugural Finance Magnates Annual Awards (FMAA) Gala kicked off last night at Lemon Park Venue in Nicosia, Cyprus, drawing some of the biggest name companies and executives in the industry. The black tie event was powered by AWS and constituted the highest standards of both transparency and excellence in the financial services arena. After

The major US stock indices are trading mixed with the broader indices (S&P and NASDAQ) higher. The Dow industrial average is lower. The Dow industrial average is reacting to sharp declines in: IBM: -6.70%Honeywell: -4.44%Boeing: -2.02%. Boeing machinists rejected a new labor contract that included wage increases of 35% over four yearsVerizon: -2.11% A snapshot

In the above video, I take a technical look at the USDCAD after the 50 bp cut yesterday. That move took the price higher and outside a key swing area, but could not sustain momentum. However, the decline today is trying to hold support at an earlier base level this week. That level will be

Closing changes in Europe: Stoxx 600 flatGerman DAX +0.4%France CAC +0.1%UK FTSE 100 +0.2%Spain IBEX flatItaly’s FTSE MIB +0.2% European stocks turned lower alongside the S&P 500, which opened strongly but is now up just 0.1%. This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

The USDCHF has been trading higher since September 30, and after breaking outside of the “Red Box” on October 4. The price moved up to a swing area and then above the 38.2% retracement during last week’s trading. On Monday this week, the price corrected down to retest the 38.2% retracement at 0.86318 and found

Prior -35 UK factory order book balance holds in negative territory in October, keeping not much changed to the month before. The volume of new orders, measured quarterly, declined to -11 from +1 previously and that hints at softer sentiment with the reading being the weakest since October 2020. This article was written by Justin

People’s Bank of China USD/CNY reference rate is due around 0115 GMT. The People’s Bank of China (PBOC), China’s central bank, is responsible for setting the daily midpoint of the yuan (also known as renminbi or RMB). The PBOC follows a managed floating exchange rate system that allows the value of the yuan to fluctuate

Info comes via Reuters UK car output fell for the seventh consecutive month in September 20.6% decline y/yEV production fell 37% in September Society of Motor Manufacturers and Traders (SMMT) cite: factories wound down production of current models to retool for new zero-emission vehicles (ZEV)drop also partly due to last year’s strong performance, which was

Services PMI 51.8 vs 52.4 expected and 52.4 prior.Manufacturing PMI 50.3 vs 51.4 expected and 51.5 prior.Composite PMI 51.7 vs 52.6 expected and 52.6 prior. Key Findings: Flash UK PMI Composite Output Index(1) at 51.7 (Sep: 52.6). 11-month low. Flash UK Services PMI Business Activity Index(2) at 51.8 (Sep: 52.4). 11-month low. Flash UK Manufacturing

It’s odd for her to take such a consistently hawkish stance with that kind of view. Inflation news has been goodServices prices still have a long way to goDeceleration in prices might not quite get us to 2% inflation target in medium term This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

Fundamental Overview Crude oil basically erased the entire rally first triggered by the Iranian missile attack against Israel in the first days of October. We are now back to square one as the market awaits the key catalysts in the next few weeks. In the big picture, central bank easing generally leads the manufacturing cycle,

In the above video, I speak to the technicals that are driving the USDCHF in trading today. Below is a summary of those technicals. Market Overview The USD/CHF begins the day with a relatively narrow 21-pip trading range, significantly below its average monthly range of 53 pips (39% of normal). This subdued volatility makes it

The major US stock indices are tumbling to new lows. Dow industrial average is down 580.31 points or -1.35% at 42344S&P index is down 80.43 point toward -1.37% at 5770.88NASDAQ index is down 396 points or -2.13% at 18177.64. Technically, the NASDAQ index is moving toward its rising 200 hour moving average at 18115.01. The

EUR/USD Technical Analysis On Monday, the pair stalled at the 1.0870 area (100-hour MA and 200-day MA convergence), initiating the current downtrend. This convergence increased the falling 100-hour MA’s importance going forward. Yesterday, the EUR/USD extended its decline, breaking below the 1.07767 level (August 1 low). This move triggered a further decline to 1.07605, but

I spoke with Kitco News yesterday to discuss several major themes moving markets right now, from BRICS expansion to pre-election positioning and the broader macro backdrop for the US dollar. We talked about how the US faces mounting challenges with debt levels exceeding $35 trillion and deficits running at nearly 7% of GDP despite strong

more to come This snapshot from the ForexLive economic data calendar, access it here.The times in the left-most column are GMT.The numbers in the right-most column are the ‘prior’ (previous month/quarter as the case may be) result. The number in the column next to that, where there is a number, is the consensus median expected.

Headlines: Euro takes a ride on the PMI seesawECB’s Holzmann: A 25 bps rate cut is probable in DecemberECB’s Holzmann says will cut rates if circumstances, inflation allow for itECB’s Vasle says should keep cutting rates in “measured steps”France October flash services PMI 48.3 vs 49.9 expectedGermany October flash manufacturing PMI 42.6 vs 40.8 expectedEurozone

German DAX futures flatUK FTSE futures +0.3% Tech shares are the ones leading the charge as we get into European trading, with Nasdaq futures seen up 0.5%. That is helped by Tesla beating profit estimates in their earnings release after hours yesterday. S&P 500 futures are also up 0.3% as such but Dow futures are

Fundamental Overview The USD has been on a hell of a run recently despite the lack of catalysts and no major repricing in interest rates expectations. The main culprit for the recent strength in the US Dollar has been the rally in long term Treasury yields. The yield curve has been bear-flattening which is what

Prior was 241K (revised to 242K)Continuing claims 1897K vs 1875K expectedPrior continuing claims 1867K (revised to 1869K) This is better than economists were expecting, though continuing claims are now at the highest since November 2021. Michigan saw the largest drop (-7,917) due to fewer manufacturing layoffsGeorgia posted the biggest increase (+3,293), citing layoffs across manufacturing,

Good morning, afternoon and evening all. Any charts, technical analysis, trade ideas, thoughts, views, ForexLive traders would like to share and discuss with fellow ForexLive traders, please do so: This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

Prior 98Manufacturing confidencePrior 99Services confidencePrior 98 This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

The USD is correcting lower today as the North Amercan traders enter for the day. US yields are lower. The broader stock indices are higher. What are the key levels in the Forex today? EURUSD: The EURUSD extended the decline below the next downside target yesterday at the 1.07767 level (low from August.1) The momentum

Several Fed officials — including Powell — cited the Beige Book as one of their reasons for cutting 50 basis points in September. There is a belief at the Fed that anecdotal data is often better at capturing turning points than hard numbers, particularly in lagging data like employment. The September Beige Book was dour

Japan finance minister Kato Rapid moves seen in recent FX marketNo comment on FX levels interventionDesirable for currencies to move stably reflecting economic fundamentals Closely watching FX moves with a sense of urgencythere was no discussion on FX at today’s G20 meeting and I don’t expect any tomorrow The reference to ‘rapid moves’ is a

USD/JPY has dripped lower from highs above 153.00 during US time. Not a lot lower, but I’m sure Japanese authorities will welcome any relief from the pounding JPY has taken, no matter how small. The dip for the US dollar was attributed to the Beige book: Forexlive Americas FX news wrap 23 Oct: Dollar moves

We should keep going to neutral in measured stepsThere is no urgency in discussing undershooting the target or going below neutralInflation has not yet been defeatedBut recent data has been encouragingOnce we get closer to neutral, it may be appropriate to align our language accordinglyA soft landing with a recovery is still the baselineBut recent

The September Beige Book was one of the final straws that pushed the Fed towards cutting rates by 50 basis points later that month. The next edition is due at the top of the hour. In that report, economic activity was said to growth slightly in three Districts, while nine reported flat or declining activity.

Federal Reserve speakers on Thursday include Cleveland President Beth HammackUSD/JPY has (eventually) fallen following some verbal intervention from Japanese officialsEuropean Central Bank chief economist Philip Lane speaks again on ThursdayJapan finance minister Kato says Rapid moves seen in recent FX marketJapan official says watching for speculative FX movesBank of England Governor Andrew Bailey and MPC

Today is the only lively day of the week in terms of market moving data releases. In the European session, we’ll get the French, German, Eurozone and UK Flash PMIs. In the American session, we get the US Jobless Claims and the US Flash PMIs. Economic data: France Manufacturing PMI: 44.9 expected vs. 44.6 prior.France

Morgan Stanley Investment Management on US equities, speaking with Dow Jones / Market Watch “We’ve had a heck of a good run,” rally “probably continues once we get through the election” “but I’m not sure next year will be quite as good a year”rally pause on the 10-year Treasury rate’s move higherbut encouraged by companies’

France October flash services PMI 48.3 vs 49.9 expectedGermany October flash manufacturing PMI 42.6 vs 40.8 expected At the balance, not too much has changed. EUR/USD was holding around 1.0787 before the data and is now around 1.0792 currently. The stronger than expected showing in Germany is helping to offset downbeat numbers from France. However,

A 25 bps rate cut in December is not ruled outBut it is not fully decided just yet I reckon it is pretty much a given unless there are upside surprises to both economic and inflation data in the weeks ahead. Otherwise, one or the other should likely validate another rate cut. But significant downside

Prior 51.4Manufacturing PMI 45.9 vs 45.3 expectedPrior 45.0Composite PMI 49.7 vs 49.8 expectedPrior 49.6 The manufacturing sector in the region continues to keep in contraction territory while services activity is continuing to slow further going into Q4. At the balance, it reaffirms that the Eurozone economy is stuck in a rut as it faces up

It’s been a rather lackluster last few sessions in Europe in terms of headlines. But hey, things might take a different turn today. On the agenda, we do have PMI data from France, Germany, and the Eurozone to make up for it. That will at least keep things interesting especially if the data continues to

Prior 49.6Manufacturing PMI 44.5 vs 44.9 expectedPrior 44.6Composite PMI 47.3 vs 49.0 expectedPrior 48.6 The post-Olympic blues is continuing for France and this just reaffirms that underlying conditions remain poor to start Q4. Both services and manufacturing prints were a miss on estimates with the former definitely hurting more. Adding to the likelihood of the

Fundamental Overview In recent days, gold has been making new highs despite the lack of bullish catalysts and the rise in real yields. Nonetheless, we’ve been seeing some quick selloffs at the highs in a potential sign that real yields are starting to bite, and we might be near a bigger pullback. Today, we get

The firm’s offer included a 35% pay rise over four years. IAM union members voted to reject the deal and stay on strike. Info comes via BBC, ungated. Check out that link for more. The strike has implications for work at suppliers. Staff layoffs and what have you. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan

The market has certainly noticed the slowing inflation with the pound down 65 pips today to the lowest since mid-August. The market is 95% priced for a 25 bps cut in November but only about 75% priced for another cut in December. That’s too low. Inflation below target pushed around by annual base effectsHigh savings

Judo Bank / S&P Global preliminary PMIs for Australia in October 2024. Manufacturing PMI still in contraction in Australia, while services is a touch improved on the month. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

I’m just reading through a piece from the American Enterprise Institute, a center-right/right-wing think tank based in Washington, D.C., that researches government, politics, economics, etc. Its titled Gathering Clouds over the Chinese Economy (link is to the piece). Not everyone is going to like it. Especially China. But, it’s a good summary of where we

The economy is clearly weakeningThe environment is conducive to further cutsI wouldn’t take for granted that we will stop at the neutral rate There were a handful of ECB officials out yesterday with similar comments. The market is pricing in a 20% chance of a 50 bps cut on Dec 12 with ongoing priced to

US stocks close lower on the day but off their lowest levels: Dow industrial average -409.94 points or -0.96% at 42514.95. At session lows, the index was down -631.72.S&P index fell -53.78 points or -0.92% at 5797.42. At session lows the index was down -88.79 pointsNASDAQ index -296.47 points or -1.60% at 18276.65. At session

This data comes from the Bank of Korea, SK’s central bank. Q3 GDP +0.1% q/q (expected +0.5%, prior -0.2%)+1.5% y/y (expected +2.0%, prior +2.3%), slowest since Q3 2023 Q3: private consumption +0.5% q/qconstruction investment -2.8% q/qfacility investment +6.9% q/q exports -0.4% q/qimports +1.5% q/q This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

Lane is the most likely to offer up comments pertinent to markets and traders. 1100 GMT/0700 US Eastern time: European Central Bank chief economist Philip Lane delivers remarks at a conference organised by the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland’s Centre for Inflation Research and the ECB 1330 GMT/0930 US Eastern time: The European Central Bank’s

The Beige Book showed economic activity was “little changed in nearly all Districts” compared to August’s report which had three Districts showing growth and nine showing flat/declining activity. Employment growth moderated further, with hiring now “focused primarily on replacement rather than growth” compared to August’s steady levelsManufacturing weakness became more widespread, with “most Districts” now

The People’s Bank of China set the onshore yuan (CNY) reference rate for the trading session ahead. USD/CNY is the onshore yuan. Its permitted to trade plus or minus 2% from this daily reference rate.CNH is the offshore yuan. USD /CNH has no restrictions on its trading range.A significantly stronger or weaker rate than expected

Xinhua with the report: Apple (AAPL) CEO Tim Cook says the firm to increase investment in ChinaKeen to seize opportunities, contribute to high quality developments of industrial, supply chains – Xinhua is a Chinese Communist Party state media outlet. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

The Bank of Canada took an axe to its benchmark rate today with a 50bp cut: The full statement from the Bank of Canada interest rate decisionMacklem statement: We anticipate cutting our policy rate furtherBank of Canada rate decision: 50 basis point cut, as expected Check out those posts above for the ‘as it happened’,

UBS are forthright with their view on the US dollar – “Unattractive” – say to sell bouts of dollar strength to reduce exposure. UBS cite: The Fed remains set to lower rates amid lower inflation. US fiscal concerns are likely to keep the US dollar under pressure. in the event of a second Trump administration

Here are the comments from the Beige Book that include a number qualifier: Most Districts reported declining manufacturing activity.Many communities experienced a persistent lack of affordable housing.A few Districts reported boosted activity from data center and infrastructure projects.Employment increased slightly, with more than half of the Districts reporting slight or modest growth.Many Districts reported low

Then-Goldman Sachs chief economist Jim O’Neill introduced the term BRIC in 2001. He was referring to the growth potential of Brazil, Russia, India and China and the need to reform global governance to include them. O’Neill doesn’t think much of the grouping now. Speaking with Reuters: “The idea that the BRICS can be some genuine

Rabobank analysts are expecting EUR/USD to ‘lurch lower’ in coming months but have been reluctant to forecast parity due to the continuing to “display significant resilience”. likely that a large part of the resilience has been drawn from the view that the ECB would be cautious in cutting interest rates … (but) this view is

You have to wonder if the Bank of Japan begins to tilt more hawkishly once again in light of the yen declines. It’s still taking time for us to get to 2% in a sustainable mannerIf you have inflation expectations anchored around zero, it’s hard to change themWe can’t telegraph all our future movements ex

Beige Book cools the US dollar bidBOJ Governor Ueda: Underlying inflation has been rising slowlyBOE’s Bailey: Disinflation has taken place faster than expected in the UK and elsewhereCIBC: It would take a major turn of events to stop another 50 bps Bank of Canda cut in DecECB’s Panetta: We have clearly seen an improvement in

CIBC thinks the Bank of Canada will cut rates by 50 basis points again in December. “With the current 3.75% rate still in restrictive territory, it would take a major turn of events to stand in the way of another 50 basis point reduction in December,” writes CIBC chief economist Avery Shenfeld. CIBC believes the

The US treasury auctioned off $13 billion of 20 year bonds: High yield 4.590%WI level at the time of the auction 4.574%Tail +1.6 basis points vs six-month average -0.62 basis points (although the last election was 2.0 basis points)Bid to cover 2.59Xvs six-month average 2.63XDirects 17.64% vs six-month average 16.93%Indirects 67.87% vs six-month average 72.78%Dealers

The US treasury will auction off $13 billion of 20 year bonds at the top of the hour. The auction results will be compared to the six-month averages of the major components from the auction. Those six-month components show: Tail six-month average -0.62 basis points (although the last election was 2.0 basis points)Bid to cover

While Japanese authorities tell us not to be worried about levels, focus on the rapidity and volatility (and speculative nature) of yen moves, UBS is nominating levels to eye regardless: say below 148.00 in short-term valueand that above 152.00 the rate is stretched UBS cite US rates in their reasoning. Keep on eye on Japanese

I see a soft landing for Europe as guaranteed.I’m not sure too much has changed in recent data.Market pricing of cuts is likely too aggressive.Some colleagues likely to push for big December cut.Current data don’t justify 50 bps in December. This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at www.forexlive.com.

First and foremost, prediction market traders are betting to make money, not showing loyalty to any politician. Their goal is profit, and they’re trying to secure bets at favorable odds based on who they think will win. Several factors, like strong GOP voter registration data in swing states like Pennsylvania, indicate that Trump has a

Downside risks to growth are accumulating.50 bps is on the table.Data will determine the cut size.There are early signs to be concerned about the labour market.Downside risks dominate growth and inflation. This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at www.forexlive.com.

In the North American morning report, I wrote on the AUDUSD: The AUDUSD is also breaking [lower] and fell below its 50% midpoint of the move up from the August low to the September high. That midpoint level comes in at 0.66451 and is now close resistance. On the downside the 200 day moving average

USD/JPY has soared 200 pips today in its fourth day of gains as the FX market recalibrates to a stronger US dollar and US economy. The move brings the pair back into line with Treasury yields, which have also erased the decline that started in late July. The market may also be making an election

ECBs Escriva does not want to be left out and says: Risk to inflation remains balanced. Yesterday Escriva in a interview to a Spanish newspaper said: ECB board member Jose Luis Escriva sees no clear signs of inflation drifting up or down to change the current outlook.Inflation is approaching the 2% target, according to September

ECB Nagel is speaking as per CNBC and says: He is convinced the ECB is more or less on track to meet 2% inflation target. This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

Shares of Apple are moving sharply lower after MIng CHi Kuo a widely followed analyst of Apple projects that iPhone 16 orders will be cut by around 10 million units for 4Q 2024 to 1H2025. Shares of Apple are currently trading down $6 or -2.54% at $229.86. Last week, the price reached an all-time high

Prior month 3.86M revised to 3.88M last month. Existing Home sales 3.84M annualized pace versus 3.86M estimate.Lowest level since October 2010Sales MoM -1.0% vs -2.0% last month (revised from -2.5%)Sales YoY -3.5% % vs -4.2% YoY last month. Last year sales pace was at 3.98 million Inventory 4.3 months vs 4.2 months last month. A

The stars looked to be aligning for bitcoin late last week as tech stocks and Nvidia shares hit records, risk appetite improved and gold soared to all-time highs. In addition, reports of heavy buying of ETFs indicated strong investor demand. Evidently that wasn’t enough to crack $70,000, let alone the March record high of $73,800.

There is something of a flight-to-safety trade ongoing in US markets with the S&P 500 now down 1.2% and the Nasdaq off by 2%. Oil, gold and risk-sensitive currencies are also selling off. You would expect that to lead to some bids in bonds but they aren’t materializing. US 2-year yields are at the highs

Adam posted on the IMF’s World Economic Outlook on Tuesday: IMF boosts US growth forecasts, trims China and Germany But, it falls to me to add the info for Australia. And its not good: forecast 3.6% inflation for 2025, up from 2.8% in their previous forecast back in April Sees inflation to 3% in December,

The GBPUSD moved below its 100-day moving average earlier today at 1.2963. The price also fell below the 61.8% retracement of the move up from August low at 1.29580. Both those levels would need to be rebroken on the topside to give the buyers more control. Until then, the sellers are in charge and in

Bank of Canada reduces policy rate by 50 basis points to 3¾% The Bank of Canada today reduced its target for the overnight rate to 3¾%, with the Bank Rate at 4% and the deposit rate at 3¾%. The Bank is continuing its policy of balance sheet normalization. The Bank continues to expect the global

1300 GMT / 0900 US Eastern time: Bank of England Deputy Governor Sarah Breeden takes part in a panel discussion on financial regulation hosted by the Institute of International Finance (IIF) in Washington, alongside Citigroup Chair John Dugan This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

US stocks have extended their fall with the NASDAQ index now down 1% on the day. The Dow industrial average is down -0.88% and the S&P index is down -0.69%. Shares of Nvidia are down -2.45% at $139.95 after extending to a new all-time high price at $144.42 during yesterday’s trading. Since the August 5

Gold is down $10 today after hitting a record high yesterday. Reuters is out with a report highlighting a drop in China gold and copper imports due to a potential tax change, citing four sources: Gold ore/concentrate imports to China fell 22.4% m/m in September to 201,004.9 MTChinese customs floating plan to put higher taxes

1300 GMT / 0900 US Eastern time: Federal Reserve Board Governor Michelle Bowman gives opening remarks on second day of the Eighth Annual Fintech Conference hosted by the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia 1600 GMT / 1200 US Eastern time: Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond President Thomas Barkin speaks on “Recognizing the Impact of Community

It’s going to be yet another slow day on the data front as the calendar is pretty empty. The main event will be the Bank of Canada rate decision. We will also hear from central bank speakers although they are unlikely to add anything new at this point. 13:45 GMT/09:45 ET – BoC Rate Decision

S&P 500 futures are down 0.4% ahead of the open in what’s become a familiar pattern. Over the past week, stock futures have been weak only to see buying throughout the day and decent closes. The index hit a record high on Thursday but has seen some mild profit taking since. Eyes are on McDonald’s

The Bank of Canada rate decision will take place at 9:45 AM ET. The expectations are for a 50 basis point cut. Adam summarized the decision here. Key takeaways: Bank of Canada is expected to cut rates by 50 bps on Wednesday, marking the first significant cut in the current cycle.OIS market predicts a 90%

ECBs Lane is speaking and says: High conviction that disinflation is on trackSome recent data raise questions about growth projections.Good recovery in economy still plausible baseline.Don’t have dramatic weakening of the economy. The EURUSD has rebounded in early US trading and is up testing the falling 100 bar moving average on the five minute chart

ECBs Villeroy is the latest ECB member to speak and says: See full optionality for December rate meetingDoes not see the ECB behind the curve. Earlier ECBs Lagarde said she is satisfied with the inflation progress. ECB’s Nagel said that the central bank is more or less on track to meet its 2% inflation target,

Fundamental Overview The USD continues to reign supreme despite the lack of catalysts. The main culprit for the recent strength in the US Dollar has been the rally in long term Treasury yields. The yield curve is bear flattening which is what you would expect with higher growth and potentially higher inflation expectations. The catalyst

On the day: Stoxx 600 -0.3%German DAX -0.2%Francis CAC -0.5%UK’s FTSE 100 -0.6%Spain’s Ibex +0.2%Italy’s FTSE MIB -0.1% The Nasdaq is trading at the lows of the day, down 1.1%. Nvidia shares are a laggard, down 2.5%. This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

In the kickstart video, I take a look at the 3 major currencies from a technical perspective. The trend is for the USD moving higher with the USDJPY leading the way once again. Below is the summary: EURUSD: The EURUSD has continued its downward movement after holding below its 200-day moving average on Monday. Yesterday

Macklem’s opening statement was pre-released, these are the highs of the Q&A with the media: Core inflation is easing as expectedOur growth forecast hasn’t changed a great dealWe’re going to be particularly focused on inflation and growth dataThere was a ‘clear consensus’ on cutting 50 bps todayExpect there will be further cuts if things unfold

The forex markets has the USD moving higher as the NA sesssion begins. The moves are being led by the USDJPY (and JPY crosses) with a gain of 1.24% after it broke back above its 200-day MA for the first time since July 31. After moving down from 161.94 to 139.57 from July to September

The press conference will begin at 10:30 am ET but the opening statement was pre-released: We took a bigger step today because inflation is now back to the 2% target and we want to keep it close to the target.Price pressures are no longer broad-basedWe need to stick the landingHousehold spending and business investment have

After Close: Enphase Energy (ENPH)Baker Hughes (BKR): Estimate EPS $0.60. Revenues $7.211 billionSeagate Technology (STX): Estimate EPS $1.48. Revenues $2.129 billionTexas Instruments (TXN) Est. EPS $1.37 Revenues $4.12 billion Wednesday Before Open: Boeing (BA)AT&T (T)Coca-Cola (KO)Thermo Fisher Scientific (TMO)CME Group (CME)Boston Scientific (BSX)General Dynamics (GD) After Close: Tesla (TSLA)Lam Research (LRCX)IBM (IBM)ServiceNow (NOW)Viking Therapeutics (VKTX)T-Mobile

Headlines: USD/JPY extends gains to nearly 1% on the day nowUSDJPY Technical Analysis – Higher Treasury yields revive the carry tradeEquities stay more sluggish as rising yields keeps optimism in checkEUR/USD continues its descent to test the early August lowECB reportedly starting to debate whether rates need to go below neutral in latest cycleGermany turns

Here’s a snapshot of thing currently: Eurostoxx -0.2%Germany DAX -0.1%France CAC 40 -0.4%UK FTSE -0.2%S&P 500 futures -0.2%Nasdaq futures -0.2%Dow futures -0.4% The declines aren’t anything too significant and can still be seen as investors just taking some off the top from the surging gains before this. But rising yields is definitely a threat that

McDonald’s (MCD) info comes via Street Insider CDC: Severe E. Coli Outbreak Linked To McDonald’s (NYSE: MCD) Outbreak in Mountain West States 49 People from 10 States Have Gotten Sick One Older Person in Colorado has Died This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

Crude oil inventories +5474K vs +270K expGasoline inventories +878K vs -1212K expDistillates inventories -1140K vs -1679K expRefinery utilization +1.8% versus expectations of -0.3% Oil was in the midst of a nice intraday bounce before this data but there has been some selling since. Private oil inventories released late yesterday: Crude +1643KGasoline -2019KDistillates -1478K This article

Chinese Academy of Social Sciences calls for 2tln yuan bond issuance to stabilize stocksEuropean Central Bank President Lagarde speaking today. Lane, Stournaras, Cipollone alsoBank of England Deputy Governor Sarah Breeden speaking Wednesday, October 23, 2024Federal Reserve speakers today include Bowman, BarkinTokyo Stock Exchange employee under investigation for suspected insider tradingBank of Japan Governor Ueda is

I’ve been listening to corporate conference calls closely for hints about macroeconomic weakness. Railways have great insight into the goods macroeconomy, which has been struggling since the covid boom. Some comments in the conference call yesterday highlight caution on the Canadian economy but there are also comments on the US, where it generates about one

Here are the key forecast changes (July 2024 → October 2024): GDP growth: 2024: 1.2% → 1.2% (unchanged)2025: 2.1% → 2.1% (unchanged)2026: 2.4% → 2.3% (slight decrease) CPI Inflation: 2024: 2.6% → 2.5% (decrease)2025: 2.4% → 2.2% (decrease)2026: 2.0% → 2.0% (unchanged) Core Inflation (by Q4): 2024: 2.4% → 2.3% (decrease)2025: 2.0% → 2.1% (slight

ECBs Lagarde is speaking and says: She is satisfied with inflation progressThe ECB needs to be cautious Although the ECB did cut rates at the last meeting, the consistent post-decision reaction is to get back on the fence.See Adam’s post here. This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

Prior -17.0%Market index 214.8 vs 230.2 priorPurchase index 131.3 vs 138.4 priorRefinance index 672.6 vs 734.6 prior30-year mortgage rate 6.52% vs 6.52% prior Another week, another plunge in mortgage applications as higher rates continue to weigh on the market. Both purchases and refinancing activity fell sharply with the latter once again sliding hard in the

The break below the 200-day moving average (blue line) last week turned the bias in the pair to being more bearish. And sellers reaffirmed that by holding at the key level amid some pushing and pulling towards the end of last week. Flip over to the new week and it’s been rather one-way traffic with

On the Fed schedule today, we will have Barkin at noon ET and the Beige Book at 2 pm. Note that the sour tone of the previous Beige Book that helped to tilt the Fed towards 50 bps in September. This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

The Bank of Canada cut right by 50 basis points which was as expected. The central bank wants to keep inflation near 2%. The focus is to maintain low, stable inflation while increasing growth. The central bank lowered the CPI forecast for 2024 and 2025. Core inflation was also lowered. Technically, the price action has

The major US stock indices are trading lower. The Dow and the S&P are on pace for their third consecutive losing day. Remember all three indices are working on six weeks of gains. That string is at risk with more than half of the trading week remaining. A snapshot of the market currently shows: Dow

The report says that ECB policymakers have already begun debating at what level do interest rates need to go in order to start stimulating the economy. The sources did say that any consensus is still a long way off though but it marks a significant turning point in the latest cycle, which could see the

I’m pretty confident inflation will hit 2% in 2025.We can take our foot off the brake if the base case holds.It’s logical to assume a recovery in consumption.Consumer recovery will take a bit longer.Structural undershoot of the 2% goal is not a risk now.Large economic deterioration is needed for bigger cuts.The biggest slowdown in wages

Peanut launches the first self-custodial offramp, allowing users to directly cash out any token on 20+ EVM chains to their bank accounts—without relying on centralized exchanges. This beta feature is being rolled out in the EU and US first. This new beta feature creates an important bridge between crypto and fiat. Users can cash out

Japan’s Securities and Exchange Surveillance Commission is investigating the Tokyo Stock Exchange (TSX) employee. allegedly bought and sold stocks based on undisclosed corporate informationa man in his 20ssuspected of providing information on listed companies’ tender offers multiple times this year to a relative of hisat least several hundreds of thousands of yen worth of profit

Scholz will be leading a high-level delegation for government consultations, but it is clear that the major forum will be to work out more business between Germany and India. It comes at a delicate time, especially with the German economy struggling and still largely being reliant on China demand for some key sectors. German economy

Fundamental Overview The Nasdaq has been consolidating around the all-time high as the lack of catalysts and the pressure from rising Treasury yields kept the market at bay. We are now near the US elections and it’s going to be a major event for the market. A Trump victory will likely give the stock market

USD/JPY looks to be in the mood as it surges higher and is now closing in on the 152.00 level. The pair is pushing higher with the yen sliding as Japanese stocks are also dragged lower on the day. The Nikkei is now down 1.4% with little other catalysts driving overall sentiment for the currency.

The report is from the Financial Times, gated, but Reuters summarise: Volkswagen’s China chief marketing officer and head of product strategy, Jochen Sengpiehl, was deported back to Germany after being detained in China for about 10 days allegedly tested positive for drugs after a holiday abroad There is a little more at that link above.

Bank of Canada meeting outcome is due on Wednesday, October 23, 2024: at 1345 GMT / 0945 US Eastern timepress conference follows 45 minutes later Earlier: Bank of Canada expected to cut by 50 basis points and continue cuts to end-2025 *** In a note from TD, analysts predict that the Bank of Canada (BoC)

There are a couple to take note of on the day, as highlighted in bold. The first being for EUR/USD at the 1.0850 level. The size of the expiries is noteworthy but it might not feature too much into play as the dollar is keeping firmer this week. Besides that, there is the 100-hour moving

Via Twitter from Charles Gasparino at FOX Business This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

These are the scheduled speakers from the ECB, but a few more may well pop up in media interviews etc. Times below are GMT/US Eastern time: 0900/0500 ECB policymaker Yannis Stournaras addresses economic conference. Stournaras is Governor of the Bank of Greece. 1400/1000 Participation by European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde in a fireside chat

I’m not sure I believe any of these reports but Israel’s Channel 12 is out with a report saying the IDF has completed its preparations to attack Iran and that it will happen within days. WTI crude is up $1.74 to $72.30 today. This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

News posted earlier: CDC: Severe E. Coli Outbreak Linked To McDonald’s (MCD) MCD shares were smashed, as you’d respect. Latest from the CDC: Cases: 49 Hospitalizations: 10 Deaths: 1 States: 10 This is a fast-moving outbreak investigation. Most sick people are reporting eating Quarter Pounder hamburgers from McDonald’s and investigators are working quickly to confirm

German DAX futures flatFrench CAC 40 futures -0.1%UK FTSE futures -0.2% Stocks remain in a more pensive mood overall with S&P 500 futures also down 0.1% currently. This follows from the back and forth mood yesterday, although equities ended up paring early losses before the close. It’s still all to play for on the week

Fundamental Overview The USD continues to reign supreme despite the lack of catalysts. The main culprit for the recent strength in the US Dollar has been the rally in long term Treasury yields. The yield curve is bear flattening which is what you would expect with higher growth and potentially higher inflation expectations. The catalyst

Fundamental Overview The USD continues to reign supreme despite the lack of catalysts. The main culprit for the recent strength in the US Dollar has been the rally in long term Treasury yields. The yield curve is bear flattening which is what you would expect with higher growth and potentially higher inflation expectations. The catalyst

Fundamental Overview The S&P 500 has been consolidating around the all-time high as the lack of catalysts and the pressure from rising Treasury yields kept the market at bay. We are now near the US elections and it’s going to be a major event for the market. A Trump victory will likely give the stock

Futures were down more than 30 points today but bids came at the open and now the S&P 500 has fought its way all the way back to flat. The Nasdaq is up 0.2%. Rising bond yields had the market a bit off balance but with stocks on a six-week winning streak, the bulls are

Eurostoxx +0.1%Germany DAX flatFrance CAC 40 flatUK FTSE +0.1%Spain IBEX +0.2%Italy FTSE MIB +0.2% S&P 500 futures and Nasdaq futures are flattish, so that’s not giving too much to work with. It’s another slow day in Europe to start with, although the yen is still keeping things interesting in FX. USD/JPY is trading up to

Reserve Bank of New Zealand Governor Adrian Orr will speak about monetary policy to the Peterson Institute 1pm US Eastern time on Wednesday1700 GMT 6am New Zealand time on Thursday The RBNZ has begun its rate cut cycle with 75bp lower so far and more to come. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at

The dollar continuing to keep steadier on the week is helping to solidify the latest upside run in the pair, though the move today is largely driven by a much softer yen side of the equation. USD/JPY isn’t the only yen pair on the move, with others also rising by some 0.7% to 0.8% currently.

Reuters report on a survey from UK hiring firm BrightMine. In summary: UK median pay awards held steady at 4% in three months to September (prev: 4% in August)Expected median pay rise for year ahead drops to 3% vs 6% in 2023Public sector pay awards unchanged at 5.5%Survey covered 64 pay awards affecting 433k employeesForward

The Institute of Finance at the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences (CASS) has published its latest Macroeconomic Financial Analysis Report, for Q3 2024, The think tanks suggests issuing 2 trillion yuan in special government bonds. This would be help establish a stock market stabilization fund. CASS is an organ of the PRC’s State Council. This

Shares of Starbucks are down nearly 6% after hours following a weak report on preliminary Q4 earnings. Global comp sales -7%US comp sales -6%China comparable store sales declined 14% This could be a sign of a weakening consumer but I think it’s more about Starbucks losing its cool. The company also suspended its guidance for

The USD is higher against JPY, CHF, AUD, NZD, CAD. It’s a touch higher against GBP and EUR but not as noticeably. Apart from what has been p[posted terhe is no fresh ews or data. USD, DXY, index: This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

People’s Bank of China USD/CNY reference rate is due around 0115 GMT. The People’s Bank of China (PBOC), China’s central bank, is responsible for setting the daily midpoint of the yuan (also known as renminbi or RMB). The PBOC follows a managed floating exchange rate system that allows the value of the yuan to fluctuate

The Bank of Canada rate decision is on Wednesday and a strong consensus has formed around the likelihood of a 50 basis point cut. It would be the first jumbo rate cut of the cycle that started in June and has seen three 25 bps cuts so far. The OIS market is priced for a

Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco President Mary Daly with Twitter posts: More: We must stay vigilant and be intentional, continually assessing the economy and balancing both of our mandated objectives: fully delivering on 2% inflation while ensuring that the labor market remains in line with full employment. That is a soft landing. This is

Good morning, afternoon and evening all. Any charts, technical analysis, trade ideas, thoughts, views, ForexLive traders would like to share and discuss with fellow ForexLive traders, please do so: This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

No fresh news to report out of Japan. No intervention type comments. Its only just pasty 9am in Tokyo though so maybe later. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda to speak at IMF-hosted “Governors Talk” session 1100 GMT on Wednesday, October 23, 2024 0700 US Eastern time This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen spoke on Tuesday at a press conference at the start of the International Monetary Fund and World Bank annual meetings in Washington. “Our view has been that raising consumer spending in China as a share of GDP (gross domestic product) is really important, along with measures to address problems in

The Japanese yen is the main mover as we look towards European trading, with key technical resistance levels starting to give way for yen pairs in general. That is keeping things interesting in an otherwise lackluster last two European morning sessions. From earlier: Yen pairs keeping things interesting on the week Major currencies are lightly

EPS $1.47 versus $1.38 estimateRevenues $4.15 billion versus $4.12 billion Forward guidance: Q4 revenues $3.7 billion – $4 billion versus estimate $4.08 billionEPS estimate $1.07 – $1.29 versus expectations of $1.35 Shares are down -1.54% as the market reacts to the forward guidance This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

Inflation data from Singapore is about it. Due at 0100 US Eastern time. Oil inventory data is due from the US, the private survey, just after 4.30 pm US Eastern time. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

Goldman Sachs sees 4.30% in 10-year yields as a line in the sand for risk appetiteECB’s Lagarde: Can’t jump to conclusion that inflation target is a done dealECB’s Holzmann: Disinflation is faster than expectedECB’s Rehn: Growth outlook has weakened and this could increase deflationary pressureECB’s Villeroy: There is a risk of undershooting 2% target, especially

Morgan Stanley AlphaWise Consumer Pulse Survey in late September, with 2,000 consumer respondents. In summary: 49% of consumers expect the Chinese economy to improve in the next six months, down from 55% in June13% to get worse, +1% 38% said they expect the economy to stay the same, +5% Household spending intentions: 25% of consumers

Goldman Sachs with a view on the euro, running ‘tariff’ scenarios for the US election outcome: if the Republican party win the presidency and Congress could lead to higher tariffs 10% U.S. tariff on all imports20% on Chinese productstax cutswould likely push up inflationwould likely lead to Federal Reserve interest rate rises, to US rates

The People’s Bank of China set the onshore yuan (CNY) reference rate for the trading session ahead. USD/CNY is the onshore yuan. Its permitted to trade plus or minus 2% from this daily reference rate.CNH is the offshore yuan. USD /CNH has no restrictions on its trading range.A significantly stronger or weaker rate than expected

Key Points: Forecasts $76/bbl average for 2025 on moderate surplusMaintains $70-85/bbl range viewRisks skewed to downside due to high spare capacity, potential trade tariffsBrent spreads may be underpricing near-term physical tightness Geopolitical factors: Limited risk premium despite Israel-Iran tensionsHigh OPEC+ spare capacity providing bufferIran oil production remains undisruptedMid East conflict keeps supply risks in play

Oilprice.com on Twitter: — Expectations I had seen centred on: Headline crude +0.3mn barrelsDistillates -1.7 mn bblsGasoline -1.2 mn — This data point is from a privately-conducted survey by the American Petroleum Institute (API): It’s a survey of oil storage facilities and companies The official report is due Wednesday morning US time. The two reports

UBS are not overly bearish on EUR/USD. Analysts at UBS Global Wealth Management expect that while eurozone economic data is likely top be missed, the see stronger data impacting euro more than weak data will. investor sentiment is very downbeat, and thus better data would be the bigger surprise a series of European Central Bank

The major stock indices had another mixed close with the S&P and Dow industrial average lower while the NASDAQ index rose modestly: Dow industrial average -6.71 points or -0.02% and 42924.89S&P index -2.78 points or -0.05% and 5851.20.NASDAQ index up 33.12 points or 0.18% at 18573.13Russell 2000 down -8.18 points or -0.37% at 2231.52 Texas

The central bank talk has been non-stop today and now Rehn is adding a few dovish lines: Rate cuts are coming, speed and scope to be decided later This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

It’s the time in the cycle when everything that happens in markets is tied back to politics. I looked at Trump trades on Thursday and aside from some pockets, it’s tough to make the argument that’s the major driver, let alone in stocks or bonds. But how about the biggest market in the world? One

I am listening to CNBC and the pundits are mostly spewing How the stock market is overbought. How the stock growth rate over the next 10-years will average 3% per year. How Trump winning will be bullish (PS everyone was bearish in 2016 when he was elected and it lasted about 1/2 a day). How

Centeno says he still expects inflation to tick up This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau is on the way out as Canadian Prime Minister one way or the other. The only question is: When? Canada will hold an election sometime between now and next October as the Federal government’s term runs out and if Trudeau leads the Liberals into that vote he will be decimated.

Massive stimulus measures implemented by governments to support their economies during the pandemic and following supply chain disruptions have led to increased money supply and rising inflation. Over the past two years, central banks have addressed this problem by tightening monetary policy, mainly through interest rate hikes aimed at cooling demand and bringing prices back

Closing changes in Europe: Stoxx 600 -0.2%German DAX -0.1%France CAC flatUK FTSE 100 -0.1%Spain IBEX -0.1%Italy’s FTSE MIB -0.6% This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

Inflation could be at target in early 2025The ECB is not behind the curve but risk of cutting rates too late is bigger than cutting too earlyNo reason for rates to stay restrictive in 2025 Lagarde was a bit more dovish today and these comments are as well. I don’t think that puts 50 bps

Financial system held up in face of aggressive central bank rate risesFalling interest rates should ease debt burdens There isn’t anything to move the euro here. This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

The forex markets are showing ups and downs after the USD moved higher yesterday helped by rising interest rates . Currently rates are of modestly higher the front end and down modestly near the end of the yield curve. US stocks are lower as geopolitical risks of tensions between Iran and Israel increase. Oil is

Sector Overview Today’s US stock market heatmap reveals a day of mixed movement, with the technology sector facing notable challenges while financials show resilience. The technology sector, particularly semiconductors and consumer electronics, are seeing significant drops, whereas some pockets in finance and energy demonstrate stability. 📉 Tech Sector: Under Pressure The semiconductor space is experiencing

The price of crude oil futures are trading higher by $1.73 or 2.47% at $71.78. The move to the upside has the price testing its 200-hour moving average at $71.76. A move above is needed to increase the bullish bias with the 38.2% retracement of the move down from the October 7 high at $72.10

Nagel spoke about the upcoming strategic review and said the ECB needs to improve how policy intentions are communicated but that a Fed-style dot plot system is not desirable. I tend to agree with him on this, the dot plot has eroded Fed credibility rather than enhancing it. I think Fed forecasts are useful but

1400 GMT/1000 US Eastern time: Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia President Patrick Harker speaks on “Fintech” before the Eighth Annual Fintech Conference hosted by the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia. We had a series of Fed speakers on Monday and into Asia morning on Tuesday: Forexlive Americas FX news wrap 21 Oct; The 10 year

“We are not unhappy with what we have seen,” on inflation.Hopes inflation can get back to target sooner than projectedInflation numbers are relatively reassuringWe “absolutely confident” in hitting inflation target sustainably in the course of 2025 but not sure whenWe have to be very sharp in evaluating services inflationEuropean consumers don’t consumer as much as

Aventus, a leading provider of enterprise blockchain solutions and parachain on Polkadot, today confirms the launch of Aventus 2.0, an evolution of the Aventus Network aimed at establishing a stronger foundation for long-term growth and value capture. The update introduces several strategic initiatives designed to enhance network performance and stakeholder utility, including increasing transaction volume

China stimulus measures announced by the PBOC are not sufficient to lift growth in a substantially material way Goldman Sachs and others have been highlighting this as well. There are certainly some things for the stock market but it’s tough to disconnect the stock market from the real economy, especially with the risk of Trump

Earlier today I wrote: AUDUSD: The 50% midpoint of the move up from the August low comes in at 0.6645 and the low reached 0.6650 at the start of the new trading day today. The bounce higher has moved to a swing area between 0.6685 to 0.6695. At the 0.6695 level is also the key

The dollar is keeping more mixed with light changes being observed overall. There’s not much appetite or follow through, as traders are keeping a watchful eye on the bond market for anything. USD/JPY is one to pay attention to as such but is running up against a key resistance region as outlined here. Besides that,

Global growth 3.2% vs 3.2% in July forecast US growth seen at 2.3% for 2024 vs 2.6% in JulyUS 2025 growth seen at 2.2% for 2025 vs 1.9% in July China growth at 4.8% for 2024 vs 5.0% in JulyEuro Zone growth at 0.8% for 2024 vs 0.9% in July, 1.2% for 2025 vs 1.5%

The People’s Bank of China set the onshore yuan (CNY) reference rate for the trading session ahead. USD/CNY is the onshore yuan. Its permitted to trade plus or minus 2% from this daily reference rate.CNH is the offshore yuan. USD /CNH has no restrictions on its trading range.A significantly stronger or weaker rate than expected

Treasury yields are still marginally higher after hitting the highest since late July. US 10s are up 1 basis point to 4.19% now and the stock market doesn’t like it or yesterday’s rise. Breadth was terrible in equities yesterday as Nvidia carried the market and the Russell 2000 fell 1.5% S&P 500 futures are down

That comment in quote marks is via Mizuho in their weekly outlook. “Verbal intervention threat rises as USD/JPY rises above 150.” That is pertinent for the session here today for sure, with USD/JPY having gained mover than 150 points since its Asia time low on Monday. Also pertinent from the same analysts is this: Buoyancy

The EURUSD sellers are making a play in the US session with the price moving below the low from last week at 1.08103. The price has moved to a low of 1.0800, bounced back to 1.08148 but is back down to 1.0806. Buyers and seller battle. If the sellers play to the downside is for

In the above video, I take a technical look at the 3 major currency pairs EURUSD: The EURUSD held below the 200-day MA and 61.8% of the move up from the June low near 1.0874 yesterday (bearish). The price low yesterday and today is pushing toward the low from last week at 1.0810. Move below

Rates cut was appropriate and others will followIt’s possible inflation is coming down faster than expected This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

Decentraland, the first decentralized virtual social world, launched a powerful new desktop client today, signaling a new era for experiencing spatial environments. This beta release enhances performance, delivers a more immersive environment, and introduces new engaging features, setting the stage for future innovations and expanded creator tools. This milestone marks the shift away from a

Stocks dribble lower in European morning tradeMajor currencies not doing much so far on the sessionBonds under the spotlight with little else to focus onEuropean equities mostly a touch softer at the open todayWhat are the main events for today?Eurostoxx futures +0.1% in early European tradingFX option expiries for 22 October 10am New York cutBOE

SuiHub Dubai is the first in a global series of hubs designed to support blockchain developers and entrepreneurs.The center is located in Expo City Dubai, a key tech hub in the region, to foster collaboration and innovation.Ghaf Studios and Sui aim to provide resources and funding to local Web3 founders and builders as part of

The USDCAD has been racing to the upside over the last few weeks with the low price at 1.3472 back on October 2. The high price yesterday reached 1.38475 on October 21. That’s a big move in a relatively short amount of time. The price also reached to a new high going back to August

Earlier today in a post I summarized the technical for the USDCHF by writing: USDCHF: The USDCHF remains above the 38.2% of the move down from the July high at 0.86318. Yesterday support buyers came in against the level increasing its importance going forward. Stay above is bullish. Move below and I would expect some

A nonpartisan report compared Harris and Trump policies. In brief: reserve fund for Social Security would run empty by 2031 under Trumpruns empty in 2034 under Harris”Social Security is nine years from insolvency, and neither campaign has a plan to solve it” “But President Trump’s plans would make it much, much worse.” The report is

Risks to growth in the UK are two-wayWouldn’t put too much weight on the latest fall in UK CPI as it may be driven by volatile componentsSigns of inflation persistence are going in the right direction but it’s a question of speed Greene wrote yesterday about a cautious and gradual approach to easing. This article

Services index +3 vs -1 last month Manufacturing shipments -8 vs -18 last month Other details: Employment -17 vs -22 last monthWages 16 vs 15 last monthPrices paid 2.70 vs 3.36 last monthPrices received 1.71 vs 1.57 last monthNew orders -17 vs -23 last monthBacklog of orders -14 vs -16 last monthCapacity utilization -11 vs

Torsten Slok is chief economist at Apollo Management. Voicing what many are seeing is super-obvious but nevertheless ignored in the thirst-trap of seeking lower rates: bottom line is that the expansion continuesAtlanta Fed currently estimates third-quarter (3Q) GDP growth of 3.4%US remaining on a no landing trajectory — economy keeps growing and inflation reignitescontinued support

In most cases, yields will tend to trend lower in the early stages of the Fed’s rate cutting cycle. But this isn’t like those cases, at least for the time being. There is something driving yields back higher and that is catching the market attention again since the start of the month. Is it the

It was a tough one for the bond bulls on Monday as the 10-year ratcheted above the 200-day moving average for the first time since July. I wrote about bonds earlier in the day and the idea that they were pricing out a recession but it’s tough to argue that’s still the trade as the

Aoki is Deputy Chief Cabinet Secretary: No comment on FX moves Hayashi adds: yen moves have positive and negative aspects – These are very mild comments. USD/JPY is circa 150.75 and barely off its session high This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

Prior was -0.8%Producer prices -0.9% y/y vs +0.2% priorRaw materials price index -3.1% vs -3.1% priorRaw materials price index -8.8% y/y This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

Gold rallied to a fresh high yesterday then quickly fell $25 on profit taking. It steadied in Asia and began the climb again and has just broken to a fresh record. I fear there is some pre-election buying of gold that could unwind after the decision, particularly if Congress is split (which should somewhat restrain

The US major indices are all lower at the open with the NASDAQ leading the way to the downside: a snapshot of market currently shows: Dow industrial average down -86 72 points or -0.20% at 42844.88S&P index down -26.09 points or -0.45% at 5827.89NASDAQ index down -90.43 points are -0.49% at 18449.58 the small-cap Russell

As the election approaches, there is concerns about the deficit. Fed’s Kashkari is saying that Rising budget deficit would on the margin mean interest rates would be higher. How all the dust settles is still up in the air as much may also depend on the split in the House and the Senate. Nevertheless, deficits

People’s Bank of China USD/CNY reference rate is due around 0115 GMT. The People’s Bank of China (PBOC), China’s central bank, is responsible for setting the daily midpoint of the yuan (also known as renminbi or RMB). The PBOC follows a managed floating exchange rate system that allows the value of the yuan to fluctuate

European indices are also all in negative territory, with the DAX also down by 0.1% after a decent open earlier. Other major indices in the region are down some 0.6% to 0.8% with the negative mood also reflected in US futures. S&P 500 futures are down 0.5% with Nasdaq futures down 0.6% currently. In the

Today we have another slow day on the data front with just a couple of low tier releases. We will get the Canadian PPI and the US Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index. Both of them aren’t market moving releases and they won’t change anything in terms of market pricing. Economic data: 12:30 GMT/08:30 ET – Canada

Fundamental Overview The lack of catalysts recently kept the US Dollar supported across the board despite the slowdown in momentum. The market might now be looking forward to the first weeks of November when we will get the key economic data, the FOMC decision and the US elections. There’s been also a good argument that

A bit of a different take on the ECB rate cut. In a recent note, PIMCO highlighted that while the European macroeconomic outlook is softer than anticipated, risk management continues to drive central bank decisions. The analysts suggested that any unexpected inflationary pressures could lead the European Central Bank (ECB) to slow the pace of

ApeExpress has officially launched on ApeChain, offering a streamlined platform for users to create and deploy tokens quickly, tapping into meme culture and emerging trends. This new service allows anyone to launch tokens with ease, enhancing accessibility within the Yuga Labs ecosystem. $BORED Among Top Tokens Launched on ApeExpress One of the first tokens to

Saudi Aramco Chief Executive Officer Amin H. Nasser says the firm is bullish on China’s oil consumption Citing government stimulus measuresjet fuel demand is a bright spotsees global oil demand at more than 100 million barrels per day through 2050 Bloomberg carried his comments, but also poured some cold water on them: other market commentators

Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City President Jeffrey Schmid spoke earlier: Fed’s Schmid calls for cautious, gradual, deliberate approach to rate cuts More now: Very strong commitment at the Fed for 2% inflationFed doesn’t focus too much on anticipated shocksExpect modest cuts in upcoming quartersSays his personal opinion is that crypto is a risk asset,

The GBPUSD is trading near its lows for the day and looks to test: Low from last week at 1.29729100-day MA at 1.296061.8% retracement at 1.2958 As the day comes to a close, those levels will be key targets in the new trading day. If broken – and stays broken – it opens the door

Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia President Patrick Harker speaks on TuesdayEuropean Central Bank President Lagarde speaks twice on Tuesday, Lane *2 alsoBank of England Governor Andrew Bailey speaking Tuesday, Greene and Breeden alsoJapan government Aoki says no comment on FX movesChina’s $120bn effort to prop up the yuanICYMI – Saudi Aramco CEO is bullish on

German DAX futures +0.1%UK FTSE futures -0.3% US futures are down around 0.2% after a more mixed showing yesterday and that’s weighing slightly on the mood today. The bond market is one to watch out for in case of anything but later in the week, we’ll have earnings from Tesla and Amazon to set the

BOJ Executive Director Kato says want to extremely thoroughly gauge US economy, US elections, Fed policy we are not targeting fx levels but are carefully looking at upside risks from rising import prices Once again, meek comments. I posted on the earlier ones: USD/JPY above 150.90 again after meek comments from Japan This article was

There are just a couple to take note of, as highlighted in bold. The first one is for EUR/USD at the 1.0850 level. It coincides with the 100-hour moving average currently, which is where price action was held up in trading yesterday. As such, the expiries alongside the key near-term level there should limit any

Fundamental Overview The lack of catalysts recently kept the US Dollar supported across the board despite the slowdown in momentum. The market might now be looking forward to the first weeks of November when we will get the key economic data, the FOMC decision and the US elections. There’s been also a good argument that

Fundamental Overview The lack of catalysts recently kept the US Dollar supported across the board despite the slowdown in momentum. The market might now be looking forward to the first weeks of November when we will get the key economic data, the FOMC decision and the US elections. There’s been also a good argument that

The European Central Bank appear on track for another 25bp rate cut at their next meeting on December 12. They seem to be behind the curve. Times below are GMT/US Eastern time: 1400/1000 European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde in conversation with Francine Lacqua, Bloomberg1500/1100 European Central Bank chief economist Philip Lane takes part in

If anything, the chart shows that the mood music is more pensive as investors are likely waiting on more action by Beijing. That especially a follow through on the fiscal side of things. The CSI 300 index is up 0.5% today but it’s not really noticeable from the charts. It seems to be that investors

Eurostoxx flatGermany DAX +0.3%France CAC 40 -0.2%UK FTSE -0.3%Spain IBEX -0.2%Italy FTSE MIB -0.2% SAP announced a better outlook at its earnings report after the close yesterday and that’s helping to lift the DAX a little. Besides that, the overall mood is a little on the softer side with US futures also keeping lower. S&P

I gave an alert for comments today: Eyes and ears open today – “Verbal intervention threat rises as USD/JPY rises above 150” What we got was meek indeed, barely anything: Japan government Aoki says no comment on FX moves Will there be anything else? USD/JPY is nearly at 151.00 and I’m surprised we’ve heard so

The major US stock indices are closing with mixed results. The Dow industrial average was the biggest loser with a decline of -0.80%. The NASDAQ index rose by 0.27% and the S&P was in between with a decline of -0.18%. Looking at the losers in the Dow, there were 12 of the 30 with declines

This is something I’ve highlighted with each and every UK labour market report, as seen with the latest one here. And it is something that has persisted for a year already now. In case you missed some of the posts about that: Heads up: UK labour market data later this month will have a similar

Fundamental Overview In recent days, gold has been making new highs despite the lack of bullish catalysts. Moreover, the latest leg higher diverged with real yields which climbed to new highs since last week. This divergence could point to a pullback in gold ahead of the Flash US PMIs on Thursday, and if we get

New Zealand trade data not moving NZ dollar upon release, around 0.6030 This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

China’s FX regulator is the State Administration of Foreign Exchange (SAFE). They’ve published data for year-to-date sales of foreign currency by commercial banks 121.3bn net FX sold January – September SAFE adds: yuan exchange is basiclly stable at reasonable and balanced levels FX mkt shows relatively strong resilience This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan

US Social Security to run dry in 2031 under Trump and 2034 under HarrisMixed bag for the major US indices. Nasdaq up, but S&P and Dow downUS 10-year yields rise above the 200-day moving averageCrude oil futures settle at $70.56Even more from Kashkari: Excess savings have been spent downCiti upgrades 0 to 3-month-old forecast for

I posted earlier to expect verbal intervention today: Eyes and ears open today – “Verbal intervention threat rises as USD/JPY rises above 150” Its just after 10am in Tokyo. Maybe officials aren’t out of bed yet. Or they’ve given up 😉 This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

10-year Treasury yields have now climbed back up to 4.20% and looking to push past its own 200-day moving average. Is it the economy trade? The inflation trade? Or perhaps the election trade? I’m quite sympathetic to the final reasoning to be honest. And that sort of ties in with inflation, should Trump come out

In a recent note, Franklin Templeton commented on the European Central Bank’s (ECB) 25 basis point rate cut, attributing the move to weak economic data and inflation falling below the 2% target. As sluggish growth persists across Europe, the firm expects the ECB to continue its rate-cutting cycle, potentially dropping rates below 2% by mid-2025.

The EURUSD is testing the low price from last Thursday at 1.08103. The low price just reached 1.08104. A break below the level will have traders looking toward the low price going back to August 1. That level comes in at 1.0777. Earlier today, the price tested the 200-day moving average in the early Asian

Excess consumer savings have been spent down.Lower credit score borrowers delinquencies are climbing.On average consumers seem like they are doing fine.Monetary policies role in bringing down inflation was probably mainly in anchoring inflation expectations, not on reducing demand. This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

Fed speakers coming up in the US afternoon/evening: Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City President Jeffrey Schmid speaks on the economic and monetary policy outlook before hybrid event hosted by the Chartered Financial Analyst Society, Kansas CityFederal Reserve Bank of San Francisco President Mary Daly participates in a moderated question-and-answer session at the 2024 WSJ

Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco President Mary Daly participates in a moderated question-and-answer session at the 2024 WSJ Tech Live: Says Fed will continue to adjust policy50 bps cut was meant to right-size policy, expect additional cuts going forwardRecent fed rate cut a ‘close call’I came down strongly in favor of 50 bps cut50

The Bank of England appear to be on track for further rate cuts. The times below are GBP/US Eastern time format: 1315/0915 Bank of England MPC member Megan Greene speaks at Atlantic Council 1325/0925 Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey speaks at financial regulation event hosted in New York by Bloomberg 1915/1515 Bank of England

Good morning, afternoon and evening all. Any charts, technical analysis, trade ideas, thoughts, views, ForexLive traders would like to share and discuss with fellow ForexLive traders, please do so: This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City President Jeffrey Schmid Calls for cautious, gradual, deliberate approach to rate cutsSays he prefers to avoid outsized rate cuts’reasonably confident’ inflation heading in right directionWe are seeing a normalization of labor market, not a deteriorationCurrent policy is restrictive, but not very restrictiveInterest rates will settle well above levels seen

UBS on the US election result: The election outcome may not be known for several weeks after the ballot closes on 5 November. The prospect of recounts and legal contests means that the winner might not be known before 11 December, the deadline for states to declare their electoral college votes. And even that date

Reuters report, citing unnamed sources on Fidelity International (investment management services including mutual funds, pension management and fund platforms) is cutting around 500 jobs in China: largest downsizing in recent yearscuts seem mainly in Dalian tech/operations centre This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

On Monday the People’s Bank of China lowered rates: China cuts 1 and 5 year rates by 25bp each, as expected China’s central bank lowered the reference rates for personal and business mortgages, a move that was widely anticipated. On the positive side, this highlights the government’s commitment to providing substantial economic support. However, a

Citi has upgraded its: 0 to 3 month forecast for gold to $2800 from $2700. Sets 6-12 month target to $3000 an ounce.Increases 6– 12 month target for silver from $38 an ounce to $40 an ounce Gold is currently trading near unchanged at $2720.60 Looking at the daily chart below, the price of gold

Goldman Sachs’ latest report (David Kostin, Goldman’s chief US equity strategist) on the S&P 500, in brief:Predict a 3% annualized return for the S&P 500 index over the next decade, real increase of 1%significantly lower than the index’s 13% annualized total return over the past ten yearsConsensus is around 6%, so GS is only half

More from Fed’s Kashkari: It was not the labor market that caused inflationVery few transactions happened on crypto, unless it’s drugs or illegal activityImmigration policy will affect our reading of the labor market Tariffs shouldn’t be themselves leading to ongoing inflation probably a one-time change in price levelDefinitely want to avoid a recesion.Saw signs of

Crude oil futures are settling at $70.56. That’s up $1.34 or 1.94% on the day. The low for the day reached $68.50. The high for the day reached $70.36. Looking at the daily chart, support comes and $66.76 – $67.69. Resistance between $71.44 and $72.43. This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

Headlines: Dollar keeps steadier so far on the sessionGold remains undaunted as the run higher continuesWeekly update on interest rate expectationsECB’s Šimkus says lower rates possible if disinflation gets entrenchedECB’s Šimkus: Policy will clearly become less restrictive from hereECB’s Kažimír says all options are on the table for December meetingGermany September PPI -0.5% vs -0.2%

Treasury yields are creeping above the top of the recent range in an unsettling move today. That’s weighed on stock futures, which are down 0.2%, and helped to lift USD/JPY by 40 pips. The question remains: How much of this is pricing out a recession and how much of it is pricing in inflation? I’m

Tech and energy sectors lead gains as semiconductors stumble Today’s US stock market displayed a mixed bag of performances, with notable strength emerging in technology and energy. Meanwhile, the semiconductor sector continued to experience turbulence. 📈 Sector Overview Technology: The technology sector showed resilience with Microsoft (MSFT) slightly down by 0.27%, while Nvidia (NVDA) rose

Chinese markets are rallying as the country’s economy demonstrates signs of improvement. While the latest data offers some optimism, significant hurdles persist. Octa Broker analyses the situation and discusses the potential implications for the People’s Bank of China’s upcoming interest rate decision. China has just released a slew of macroeconomic statistics. Although it generally looks

$DOG of Bitcoin announces the release of its limited-edition $DOG Plushie, which launched on October 19, 2024, an occasion now being called “$DOGTOBER 19.” These collectible plush toys provide fans and newcomers with a tangible connection to the $DOG ecosystem, bridging the digital world of cryptocurrency with a physical collectible designed for both enjoyment and

The USDCAD is pushing to the upside (with the broader USD advances today) and in the process is stretching toward the high from last week at 1.3837. A move above that level would have traders targeting a swing area off the daily chart point back to 2022 between 1.3859 and 1.3898. Move above that level

The German Dax closed at record highs on Monday, Thursday and Friday last week, moving above the high close going back to September 27. Today, however, the index fell by around 1% leading the way lower for the major European indices. A snapshot of the Europe closes fo the day are showing: German Dax, -1.02%France’s

The USD is moving higher. Looking at the dollar index (DXY) the price is testing the 200 day MA at 103.79. The price moved above that level on Friday reaching a high of 103.88, before failing and rotating lower. The high has just extended to 103.803. Get and stay above to 200 day MA, and

The major US indices moved higher last week and in doing so extended they went straight 26 consecutive weeks. That’s the longest streak in 2024. To start the new trading week, stock are marginally lower with declines around -0.10% in the three major indices: Dow industrial average -54 points or -0.13% at 43220S&P index -5.4

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The US dollar is at the best levels of the day across the board as US 10-year yields extend their gain to 8 bps and 4.15%, which is also the highest since late July. USD/JPY is approaching last week’s high and a break of it would be the best level since late July. This article

The USD continues to move higher today, and the NZDUSD is not missing out on the run higher. A chief fundamental catalysts is the the 10-year note yield which is up 10.5 basis points on the day and now up around 55 basis points since the Fed cut. The 2-year yield is up 45 basis

Its another day of a multitude of Federal Reserve speakers. I expect all of these four to give indications of the policy views. I posted this earlier, thoughts of a November and/or December pause are not going away: Will the Federal Reserve pause in November and (or) December – Citi with the heads up Times

There are a couple to take note of on the day, as highlighted in bold. The first being for EUR/USD at the 1.0885 level. It isn’t one that holds much technical significance, especially with the 100-hour moving average at 1.0866 pinning price action down for now. But it could play a role in limiting any

The AUDUSD traded above and below the 100-day MA last week at 0.9695. The price moved above the MA on Thursday/Friday and closed above that MA tilting the bias in the buyers favor. However, today, the price moved below the MA in the European session and stayed below in the US session. What I like

Domestic sight deposits CHF 454.1 bn vs CHF 459.4 bn prior Swiss sight deposits fell again in the past week, continuing to keep within levels seen in the last few months after a slight rise towards the end of September. Here’s a look at the trend: This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

Prior was -0.2%Six-month decline accelerates to 2.6%, worse than previous 2.2% fall This index isn’t a market mover but it’s a decent 10,000 ft view on the economy and shows why the Fed is in an easing cycle. “Weakness in factory new orders continued to be a major drag on the US LEI in September

Cannot predict outcome of December’s meetingRisks to economic growth are skewed to the downsideServices inflation remains highBut disinflation trend is on a stable track Nothing that hasn’t already been said since the policy decision last week. But as things stand, traders have fully priced in a 25 bps rate cut for December with ~118 bps

December meeting is wide openWill be in a strong position to ease further if accelerated pace of disinflation continuesIncreasingly confident that disinflation path is on solid footingBut still need more evidence, especially on services inflation Well, unless the economy miraculously bounces back in the final quarter of the year, it will be tough for the

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The ranges for the day aren’t overly interesting but the dollar is seen holding a slight edge in European morning trade. It comes as Treasury yields are pushing higher as well, allowing for some light action on the session. USD/JPY is now marked up by 0.3% to 149.95 from a low of 149.10 in Asia

This is via eFX: *** Synopsis: MUFG discusses the increasing likelihood of the Bank of Japan (BoJ) implementing another rate hike before the end of the year, driven by recent economic indicators and financial market performance. Key Points: • Yen Weakness and USD/JPY Levels: The Japanese yen has given back nearly 50% of the gains

Comments from Logan: Fed will need to be nimble with mon pol choicesEconomy is strong and stableSees downside risk to job market, ongoing risks to inflation goalBalance sheet cuts and rate cuts working in same directionLiquidity still abundant in money marketsOver time wants ‘negligible’ balances in reverse repo facilityFed could change reverse repo rate if

Rate cuts by year-end Fed: 43 bps (92% probability of rate cut at the upcoming meeting) 2025: 143 bps ECB: 30 bps (81% probability of 25 bps rate cut at the upcoming meeting) 2025: 143 bps BoE: 44 bps (99% probability of rate cut at the upcoming meeting) 2025: 143 bps BoC: 81 bps (99%

Business contacts are optimistic, aware of risksI pay a lot of attention to financial conditions indexes Financial conditions are easing in stocks but tightening in bonds but when the Fed says ‘financial conditions’, it’s 90% weighted to bonds. This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

The BOE’s Megan Greene wrote a column in the FT. UK consumption recovery lags behind other developed economiesUK savings rate high at 10% vs 5% in the USThree factors damping UK consumption: Precautionary savings due to cost of living crisisRestrictive monetary policyInterest rate changes impacting household incomesDiscretionary spending remains below pre-pandemic levelsHigher interest rates incentivize

Reserve Bank of Australia Deputy Governor Hauser speaks in a ‘fireside chat’ format at the CBA 2024 Global Markets Conference in Sydney: At midday Sydney time, which is 0100 GMT and 2100 US Eastern time I haven’t got a topic for the chat. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

To start the new trading week, the buyers are holding onto control, but for the EURCHF, the sellers are holding the stronger hand (and in control). USDCHF: Last week, the USDCHF moved above its 38.2% retracement of the move down from the July high to the September low at 0.86318. Midweek, the price tested that

German DAX futures -0.2%UK FTSE futures +0.1% It’s all to play for in the new week with the DAX in particular hoping to keep at fresh record highs. US futures are more muted today, keeping relatively flattish currently. Key earnings releases are back on the cards with Tesla, Boeing, and Amazon to watch out for

Major currencies are more muted in general to start the day, with only the yen sitting slightly higher. USD/JPY is down 0.2% to 149.23 as the pair starts to show some signs of exhaustion after testing waters above 150.00 last week. Price action is now sitting under both the 100-hour and 200-hour moving averages at

The week starts quietly on Monday with no significant economic events scheduled for the FX market. On Tuesday, the U.S. will release the Richmond manufacturing index, offering some early insights into the country’s industrial performance. Wednesday’s focus will be on Canada, where the BoC is set to announce its monetary policy decision. In the U.S.,

I posted this on gold a little earlier: UBS like gold higher, point to history indicating up to a further 10% rise UBS riding the trend. Gold has just hit a fresh record high: This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

As the new trading week begins, the USD buyers are exerting their control. EURUSD: The EURUSD sellers (USD buyers) are moving away from the 100 hour MA at 1.08623, the 200 day MA at 1.0871, the 61.8% of the move up from the end of June low at 1.08746. The current prices trading at 1.08539.

The People’s Bank of China set the onshore yuan (CNY) reference rate for the trading session ahead. USD/CNY is the onshore yuan. Its permitted to trade plus or minus 2% from this daily reference rate.CNH is the offshore yuan. USD /CNH has no restrictions on its trading range.A significantly stronger or weaker rate than expected

S&P 500 futures are down 0.2% and we’re on a six-week winning streak. In that time, the index has gained 8.45% despite the election uncertainty. If you read Friday’s Goldman Sachs note, then that is as good as it will get for a long time. “We estimate the S&P 500 will deliver an annualized nominal

People’s Bank of China sets Loan Prime Rates (LPR), a rate cut as expected 1 year to 3.10% from 3.35% 5 year to 3.6% from 3.85% —- Preview of this was here: Heads up for a rate cut from China expected on Monday, October 21, 2024 This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

Fundamental Overview The lack of catalysts recently kept the US Dollar supported across the board despite the slowdown in momentum. The market might now be looking forward to the first weeks of November when we will get the key economic data, the FOMC decision and the US elections. There’s been also a good argument that

Fundamental Overview Last Friday, the PBoC announced new easing measures which included further rate cuts and stock buyback funding. Moreover, we got some positive economic data with Retail Sales and Industrial Production beating expectations by a big margin. These catalysts provided support for copper which erased most of last week’s losses. Copper Technical Analysis –

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Fundamental Overview The lack of catalysts recently kept the US Dollar supported across the board despite the slowdown in momentum. The market might now be looking forward to the first weeks of November when we will get the key economic data, the FOMC decision and the US elections. There’s been also a good argument that

He is saying that interest rates could be lowered to below the “natural level” in the latest cycle, that is if disinflation becomes more entrenched in the euro area. I reckon that goes without saying but we’re not quite pushing the boundaries of that narrative for now at least. This article was written by Justin

The push higher on Friday reaffirms the continued positive momentum in gold, one that has been quite unrelenting in 2024. That has also helped to turn a recovery in silver in the last two months, with the precious metal itself rising to $34 today. As for gold, it is looking to extend to fresh record

This week is pretty empty on the data front and today we have absolutely nothing on the calendar. Kind of a synthetic Sunday if you will. We will just hear from some Fed speakers but it’s unlikely that they will tell us something new. Central bank speakers: 12:55 GMT/08:55 ET – Fed’s Logan (neutral –

In a note last week from Standard Chartered analysts at the bank said oil market sentiment, especially among speculative traders, is highly bearish, similar to levels seen in 2008 during the Global Financial Crisis. Concerns centre on expectations of macroeconomic hard landings, weak oil demand, fears of oversupply in 2025 Stan Chart say that the

Prior +0.2%PPI -1.4% vs -1.0% y/y expectedPrior -0.8% A fall in energy prices was the main drag as if you exclude that, producer prices were seen down just 0.1% on the month. Looking at the details, there were declines for prices for intermediate goods (-0.2%) while capital goods and durable consumer goods were unchanged. Meanwhile,

People’s Bank of China USD/CNY reference rate is due around 0115 GMT. The People’s Bank of China (PBOC), China’s central bank, is responsible for setting the daily midpoint of the yuan (also known as renminbi or RMB). The PBOC follows a managed floating exchange rate system that allows the value of the yuan to fluctuate

Good morning, afternoon and evening all. Any charts, technical analysis, trade ideas, thoughts, views, ForexLive traders would like to share and discuss with fellow ForexLive traders, please do so: This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

Via Nick Timiraos at the Wall Street Journal, a sneak peek early look at PCE inflation forecasts. Timiraos adds: Economists who map the CPI and PPI into the PCE think core inflation for the Fed’s preferred gauge will be around 0.26% in September, a touch below the Sept CPI (which was 0.31%) but the highest

UBS raised its 2024 and 2025 GDP growth forecasts for China, citing faster-than-expected GDP growth in 3Q, and recent government policy support announcements Forecasts now: GDP growth for 4Q to rise to 6.5% q/qGDP growth for 4Q to rise to remain at 4.6% y/yFull-year 2024 real GDP growth raised to 4.8% (prior forecast 4.6%)2025 real

Eurostoxx -0.2%Germany DAX -0.2%France CAC 40 -0.4%UK FTSE +0.2%Spain IBEX -0.3%Italy FTSE MIB flat It’s a more pensive start overall with US futures also keeping little changed. That is not giving traders much to work with with changes in FX also relatively light currently. The DAX is down slightly but still within touching distance of

South Korea 1 – 20 October trade data: Exports -2.9% y/y semiconductor exports +36.1%cars -3.3%to China + 1.2%to the United States -2.6% to the European Union -8.9% Import -10.1% y/y Info via Reuters. – While exports declined y/y in October this comes after the September data showed exports rose for the 12th month in a

New Zealand credit card spending for September 2024 -3.2% y/y prior -3.1% -0.4% m/m prior -0.4% NZD/USD is not a lot changed in a small range only for the session so far. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

The next European Central Bank monetary policy meeting is on December 12. TD are expecting another rate cut (the ECB cut by 25bp last week). TD cites: ECB officials (members of the Bank’s rate setting committee, the Governing Council) have opened up the door sidely to cutsthe data-dependent ‘one meeting at a time’ messaging is

Fuji News Network (FNN) says Japan’s LDP is unlikely to win a governing majority in Japan’s 27 October election. Japan Times does not, though, that PM Ishiba only has a low support rate. The LDP and its coalition partner are likely to remain in power. USD/JPY has lost some ground today in a small range

UBS raised its 2024 forecast for China’s full-year real GDP growth to 4.8% (from 4.6%)MUFG sees a growing case for the BoJ to raise rates again before year-endJapan election – LDP likely to remain in government with support of coalition partnerMonday will bring Federal Reserve speakers including Logan, Kashkari, Schmidt, DalyNew Zealand credit card spending

Citi comments reported by Bloomberg (gated) flah the possibility of no more rate cuts from the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) for the rest of this year Citigroup Inc.’s Akshay Singal, global head of short-term interest-rate trading, told Bloomberg TV that the Fed is likely to cut rates by just 25 basis points, or even

The International Energy Agency (IEA) forecasts oil prices to US$25 / barrel … read on: IF the world reaches net zero emissions mid-century targets in a way that limits global warmingAND its by 2050 I don’t think oil markets, when they open, will be bothered paying too much attention to this. So, if you hear

Bank of France Governor François Villeroy de Galhau and European Central Bank Governing Council policymaker. He spoke in an interview with French radio on Saturday, flagging falling inflation: and further rate cuts ahead: we’re on a good way to defeat inflationthis is actually good newsmay be some temporary rebounds in coming months, but that’s a

Reserve Bank of Australia Deputy Governor Hauser spoke in a ‘fireside chat’ format at the CBA 2024 Global Markets Conference in Sydney: RBA dep Gov Hauser says surprised employment growth has been so strong More from RBA’s Hauser – monetary policy is ready to respond in either direction Hauser’s comments once again pointed to an

Reserve Bank of Australia Deputy Governor Hauser speaks in a ‘fireside chat’ format at the CBA 2024 Global Markets Conference in Sydney: slightly surprised employment growth has been so stronglabour participation rate is strikingly highRBA is data dependent but not data obsessedwill take into account Q3 CPI, other data, to form a view on policy

Reserve Bank of Australia Deputy Governor Hauser speaks in a ‘fireside chat’ format at the CBA 2024 Global Markets Conference in Sydney: acutely conscious that the outlook is uncertainpolicy is ready to respond in either directionwe are alert and ready to act Earlier: RBA dep Gov Hauser says surprised employment growth has been so strong

UBS Global Wealth Management like both oil and gold, citing market uncertainty and the Fed easing. UBS point ut that markets are trimming expectations of further Fed easings , but nevertheless see more cuts ahead. Analysts highlight gold historically rising by up to 10% following the first Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) rate cut. UBS

A rate cut from the People’s Bank of China is expected (2115 US Eastern time). Preview: Heads up for a rate cut from China expected on Monday, October 21, 2024 And, more on the agenda for the week ahead: Weekly Market Outlook (21-25 October)Newsquawk Week Ahead: Highlights include PBoC LPR, BoC, EZ & UK PMIThis

As is usual for a Monday morning, market liquidity is very thin until it improves as more Asian centres come online … prices are liable to swing around, so take care out there. Indicative rates, not a lot changed from late Friday levels: EUR/USD 1.0861USD/JPY 149.55USD/CHF 0.8650USD/CAD 1.3804AUD/USD 0.6708NZD/USD 0.6076 This article was written by

UPCOMING EVENTS: Monday: PBoC LPR.Tuesday: Canada PPI.Wednesday: BoC Policy Decision.Thursday: Australia/Japan/Eurozone/UK/US Flash PMIs, US Jobless Claims.Friday: PBoC MLF, Tokyo CPI, German IFO, Canada Retail Sales, US Durable Goods Orders. Monday The PBoC is expected to cut the LPR rates by 20 bps bringing the 1-year rate to 3.15% and the 5-year rate to 3.65%. This

aCrude Oil Futures Weekly Forecast: Bears in Control, Watching Key Support Levels 📉 Crude Oil Futures (CL1!) are showing clear signs of bearish momentum, with prices falling sharply in recent weeks. This is reflected in the weekly chart, where the market has consistently respected a long-term descending resistance line (marked in red as the bottom

China sets loan prime rate (LPRs) on Monday, October 21, 2024. Last month the PBoC cut the 7-day reverse repo rate, and the Medium-term Lending Facility (MLF) rate: PBOC 1-year Medium-term Lending Facility (MLF), rate cut to 2% (2.3% previously) and a matching cut to LPRs is expected tomorrow. Indeed, on Friday PBoC Governor Pan

Mon: PBoC LPRTue: NBH Announcement, IMF World Economic OutlookWed: BoC AnnouncementThu: EZ/UK/US Flash PMIs (Oct)Fri: PBoC MLF (TBC), CBR Announcement, Japanese Tokyo CPI (Oct), German Ifo (Oct), US Durable Goods (Sep), US University of Michigan Final (Oct) PBoC LPR (Mon): PBoC will announce the latest Loan Prime Rates next week in which Chinese banks are

Magazine covers are notorious signs of a top. The meme stocks are flying once again. Do we ride this to 85 at least? I don’t think we’re necessarily in the final inning but I suspect the market will need a red sweep to keep the party going. This article was written by Adam Button at

The earnings season heats up a bit next week with Tesla, Boeing, AT&T, and Coca-Cola leading the way. Monday After Close: SAP (SAP)Nucor (NUE)Logitech (LOGI)Zions Bancorporation (ZION) Tuesday Before Open: Verizon (VZ)General Motors (GM)3M (MMM)RTX (RTX)Freeport McMoRan (FCX)GE Aerospace (GE)Lockheed Martin (LMT)Sherwin-Williams (SHW) After Close: Enphase Energy (ENPH)Baker Hughes (BKR)Seagate Technology (STX)Texas Instruments (TXN) Wednesday

US Sept housing starts 1.354m vs 1.350m expectedBostic: Neutral policy rate is in the 3-3.50% rangeFed’s Bostic: We may see a lull in activity and spending around the electionBaker Hughes US oil rig count +1Fed’s Waller does not comment on monetary policy or the economic outlookBiden: Understands how and when Isreal will respond to Iran

The major indices are closing higher for the day with the Nasdaq leading the way. The Dow and the S&P are also higher. The small cap Russell 2000 is closing lower but is higher on the week. The final numbers are showing: Dow Industrial Average rose 36.86 points or 0.09% at 43275.91S&P rose 23.20 points

There are some small wins for seller in the USDJPY from a technical perspective: The price stalled ahead of a topside trend line yesterday on the hourly chart (see chart above) . The inability to get to the level is a small negative.The price fell below an upward-sloping trend line on the hourly chart above

I just posted about the signs of euphoria that are building in markets. And why wouldn’t they be, the market has rallied six weeks in a row. Here is a reminder from two years ago what the other side of that trade looks like. In October 2022, the gilt market blew up and that led

Headlines: Weekly update on interest rate expectationsGold Technical Analysis – Yet another all-time highUSD/JPY lower on the day but buyers stay in control for nowJapan’s largest union group Rengo targets wage hikes of at least 5% for next yearBOJ governor Ueda remarks that Japanese economy is recovering moderatelyUK September retail sales +0.3% vs -0.3% m/m

Oil rigs +1Natural gas rigs -2 The economic momentum and optimism has left the oil market behind. It’s 2025 budget-setting season right now though and I’d imagine capital discipline will be the theme next year so that may start to help. The worries are OPEC and China though. WTI was last down $1 to $69.71.

The EURUSD has been trending to the downside recently, and in the process has extended toward August low levels. My most recent technical videos on the pair, have been focused on the 4-hour chart as the market trended lower. If you watch the kickstart video from earlier today I also spoke to the 200-day moving

“Premature” is an interesting choice of words. That said, I certainly can’t see it happening in my lifetime. I suspect we’ll see a breakup of the euro before a BRICS currency. This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

Japan economy recovering moderately but some weak moves seenFinancial system remains stable as a wholeMust be vigilant to market, FX moves and impact on economy, prices It’s an odd one as Uchida himself could just easily parroted the above comments. As for Ueda, he is in China amid a trilateral meeting as noted here two

The data is below, but note that Q2 GDP was revised to +0.5% q/q instead of 0.7% This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

OriginTrail, the ecosystem striving for a safe internet in the age of AI with its decentralized knowledge graph, was named the best project at the prestigious MIT Decentralized AI Summit. Held at the MIT Media Lab, the summit brought together top innovators, researchers, and industry leaders to explore the future of decentralized AI technologies. The

Prior was 1.356mStarts -0.5% vs +9.6% priorBuilding permits 1.428m vs 1.460m expectedPermits -2.9% vs +4.9% priorFull report US housing had been on the comeback trail but that may be in jeopardy as 30-year rates have risen 50 basis points from the September low. Starts are down 0.7% y/y. This article was written by Adam Button

The USDCHF this week extended above a swing area between 0.86078 and 0.8619, and then the 38.2% retracement of the move down from the July high to the September low at 0.86318. Yesterday there was a corrective move that took the price briefly below the 38.2% retracement, but only by a few pips before the

Not in a rush to get to neutralWill be patientWe needed to move policy rate because risks had shifted This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

Pres Biden is out saying: He has an understanding of how and when Israel is going to respond to the missile attacks by Iran but declines to give detailsHe also says that there’s the possibility of working for a cease-fire in Lebanon, it’s going to be harder in Gaza The news does not sound very

Shares of Apple are trading at $235 or up $2.85 or 1.22%. Closing this level would suppress the all-time high close level of $234.82 reached on July 16. Wedbush was out with a report today saying Apple’s iPhone 16 sales in China are forecasted to see a significant rebound over the next year. The analysts

The EURUSD is trading higher and is approaching key resistance near 1.0871 to open 08746. Within that area is the 100 hour moving average at 1.087161.8% retracement of 1.08746200 day moving average at 1.0872 The high price yesterday reached 1.0873. The area is key for both buyers and sellers. A move above, gives the buyers

Slight delay in the release by the source. The current account surplus narrowed in August with surpluses recorded for goods (€32 billion) and services (€19 billion) while deficits were recorded for secondary income (€15 billion) and primary income (€4 billion). This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

The USDCAD buyers remain in control in what has been an up-and-down trading week that did see the pair move to the highest level since August 6th. At the price high this week, the USDCAD moved into a swing area going back to the end of July early August between 1.38337 and 1.38475. Sellers leaned

The NZDUSD price action this week has been lower, but there also has seen a lot of ups and downs and consolidation after the sharp move lower from the end of September high at 0.6377 to the low this week at 0.6038 (12 days from top to the bottom) Technically, the NZDUSD has been behaving

Feds Waler is speaking but does not comment on monetary policy were economic outlook in his prepared remarks on decentralized finance. There may be a Q&A after his speech that could provide some commentary on each. This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

Closing changes in Europe: Stoxx 600 +0.2%German DAX +0.4%France CAC +0.4%UK FTSE 100 -0.3%Spain IBEX +0.1%Italy’s FTSE MIB +0.4% It was a nice finish for everyone outside of the UK, what a baske case that’s been. This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

Japanese CPI Overall 2.5% y/y expected 2.5%, prior 3.0% Core CPI (excluding fresh food) 2.4% y/y expected 2.3%, prior 2.8% Core-core 2.1% y/y expected 2.0%, prior 1.9%excluding fresh food and energy, this is the closest to US core inflation Two of three lower than in August. All three are at or above the Bank of

Just a bit of a geopolitical update as it looks like North Korea is now getting involved with the war between Russia and Ukraine. It is being reported that North Korean troops have been shipped to Russian bases in the far east for training and adjustment. Following which, they will likely be subsequently “deployed for

Bostic delivered a lecture at a high school on “Economic Education and the Fed 101” in Mississippi. The comments didn’t speak to the outlook. This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

I believe that the most-underrated source of information on the economy is from corporate conference calls, particularly those that are most-sensitive to macro. I went through the calls of 16 companies that reported this week and found the comments about macro health, consumer demand and the outlook. Here are the highlights. Citi: The US consumer

Chinese state media with comments from Pan Gongsheng, People’s Bank of China governor PBOC provides specific directions for stock buybacks and reloans to increase holdings, and it is the bottom line that credit funds cannot enter stock market in violation of regulationsCentral bank’s provision of stock buyback and additional purchase re-loans has specific directional aims,

Take a look at the state of the crypto industry and one thing quickly stands out; Bitcoin reigns supreme. In terms of market cap, value per token, and sheer popularity, it is clearly leading the pack. In fact, it was declared the best-performing asset of the 2010s, even beating out gold. With all of these

The S&P index has erased it gains and trading into negative territory as the clock ticks toward the close. The NASDAQ index is holding onto a small gain of around 0.10%. The Dow industrial average is up 0.42% and the Russell 2000 is down -0.27%. At session highs, the S&P index is up nearly 36

It’s a bullish case scenario for the BOJ, if and only if this can be pulled off. Newly appointed Japan prime minister Ishiba will be supportive of that but as inflation stabilises, it might be tough to repeat a similar feat seen last year. For some context, Japanese firms agreed to an average 5.1% wage

Fundamental Overview The PBoC tonight announced new easing measures which included further rate cuts and stock buyback funding. Moreover, we got some positive economic data with Retail Sales and Industrial Production beating expectations by a big margin. These catalysts might see dip-buyers piling into the market again after last week’s big correction. Hang Seng Index

Good morning, afternoon and evening all. Any charts, technical analysis, trade ideas, thoughts, views, ForexLive traders would like to share and discuss with fellow ForexLive traders, please do so: This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

A stronger US retail sales report yesterday helped keep the dollar in a good spot on the week. Meanwhile, the euro was shaky from the ECB policy decision as Lagarde failed to comfort the economy doomsayers. She continued to highlight data dependency but markets might not take too kindly to that if the data continues

Fundamental Overview The bullish momentum in the US Dollar seems to be waning as GBPUSD couldn’t print a new low despite another set of strong US data. In fact, the US Retail Sales beat expectations across the board by a big margin and the US Jobless Claims came out much better than expected. One caveat

In the European session, the only notable event was the release of the UK Retail Sales. The data beat expectations across the board by a big margin and gave the GBP a boost. There’s nothing else on the agenda for the current session although we will hear from many ECB members after yesterday’s policy decision.

As the US stock trading gets started, the Dow is lower as Amex (-4.25%)and P&G (-1.75%) weigh on that index after earnings disappointed. The Nasdaq is moving higher led by Netflix after their earnings (+9.5%). A snapshot of the market is showing: Dow down -125.69 points or -0.29% at 43113S&P +14.76 points or +0.25% at

JPY verbal intervention: Japan govmt says closely watching speculative FX movesYen intervention comments out of Japan China: PBOC Governor says 7-day reverse repo rate will be lowered by 0.2%PBOC has officially ramped up support for the stock market, relending facility launchedChina National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) official says economic indicators positve changePBOC Governor provides directions

There sources report yesterday highlighted that there were some on the ECB who wanted to remove references to being restrictive, so there is a dovish push. The market is pricing in a 23% chance of a 50 bps cut in December. This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

The Atlanta Fed GDPNow growth estimate for the third quarter came in unchanged at 3.4%. In their own words: The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the third quarter of 2024 is 3.4 percent on October 18, unchanged from October 17 after rounding. After this morning’s housing starts report

S&P 500 futures are up 13 points after touching a record high (and then fading) yesterday. Nasdaq future are up 0.3% with some help from Netflix, whose shares are up 6.5% after beating estimates on subscriber growth. Apple shares are also up 1.8% pre-market on a report that China iPhone 16 sales are up 20%

2025 inflation seen at 1.9% (previously 2%)2026 inflation seen at 1.9%Long-term inflation, defined as 2029, seen at 2.0% This is just a tad more optimistic than the ECB’s own projections, which sees inflation only returning back to the 2% target in Q4 2025 and averaging at 2.3% for next year. The central bank does put

I think there is a chance that Lagarde strikes a more-dovish tone than yesterday but in all likelihood we will hear the same things about data dependence. Right now the market is pricing in a 24% chance of a 50 bps cut. This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

When put into context to the near-term chart below, the quick 30 pip drop earlier isn’t that meaningful. As our reader Alex pointed out, there were some headlines noting that the BOJ is said to see “little need to rush an October rate hike” and that they are “mulling a change to their view on

Fundamental Overview Yesterday, gold managed to rally into a new all-time high despite some strong US data as Retail Sales and Jobless Claims beat expectations across the board. In the bigger picture, gold remains in a bullish trend as real yields will likely continue to fall amid the Fed’s easing cycle. The pullbacks will likely

As the 16th BRICS summit approaches, the world is watching with anticipation. With the introduction of new members and the ongoing development of a BRICS currency, this gathering could mark a significant turning point in international finance. Will the summit unveil a new era of economic cooperation and bring about a new currency? Octa Broker

Sector Overview The stock market is experiencing varied performances today, with Technology leading the charge. A noticeable upswing is observed particularly in Tech giants, making it a day of wins for some and losses for others in the sector landscape. 📈 Technology: Apple (AAPL) is up by an impressive 1.29%, demonstrating strong investor confidence. Nvidia

TGIF. The USD is trading lower to start the last trading day of the week.The EURUSD and GBPUSD are higher. The USJDPY is lower. What are the technicals are driving each of the major currency pairs. I will outline them in the video above. Below is a written summary: EURUSD: The EURUSD is rebounding after

CPI data in September is expected to be lower than in August. You’d think such an event might count against the Bank of Japan hiking rates, but they seem to be intent on doing so despite the incoming data. It’ll be interesting to see how the yen responds. USD/JPY above 150 and at its highest

China home price data for September 2024: -5.7% y/y prior -5.3% -0.7% m/m prior also -0.7% We’ve been banging on all year (more?) about the vicious cycle of lower home prices breeding buyer reluctance (why buy no when prices fall, get it cheaper later) breeding lower prices. That has not yet gone away. China’s property

Pell Network, an Omnichain Decentralized Validation Services (DVS) network, has successfully raised $3 million in pre-seed funding, as announced on October 16, 2024. This round was co-led by Paper Ventures, Halo Capital, and Mirana Ventures. Incubator D11-Labs and key investor Delta Blockchain Fund, also participated in this round, along with a diverse group of investors

People’s Bank of China governor Pan Gongsheng Expected that depending on the market liquidity situation by the end of the year, the reserve requirement ratio could be further reduced to achieve dynamic balance, macroeconomic policy should shift from investment-focused to balancing both investment and consumption monetary policy framework will be further improved, with a focus

Happy Friday. September housing starts are due at the bottom of the hour and they are the only notable economic indicator in today’s North American session. The consensus is a dip to 1.350m from 1.356m but I doubt the report will move the broader market. In terms of Fedpseak, we hear from Bostic (9:30 am

Prior +1.0%Retail sales +3.9% vs +3.2% y/y expectedPrior +2.5%; revised to +2.3%Retail sales (ex autos, fuel) +0.3% vs -0.3% m/m expectedPrior +1.1%Retail sales (ex autos, fuel) +4.0% vs +3.2% y/y expectedPrior +2.3%; revised to +2.2% It’s a welcome sight for the BOE to see UK retail sales hold up for yet another month. That as

Real Madrid football legend Roberto Carlos and trading pioneers easyMarkets announce the return ofthe xBar Cup at the Dubai Expo 2024.This year’s challenge takes a new turn by spotlighting elite football Freestylers with a strong social media presence, a strategic pivot intended to intensify the competition’s caliber. This refined focus promises to provide both highly-skilled

TGIF. As the North American session begins, the NZD is the strongest and the CHF is the weakest. China’s economy grew at a slower pace in the third quarter, with GDP expanding by 4.6% year-on-year, down from 4.7% in the previous quarter and marking the lowest reading in 18 months. This slowdown highlights the challenges

Eurostoxx +0.1%Germany DAX -0.1%France CAC 40 +0.1%UK FTSE -0.4%Spain IBEX -0.4%Italy FTSE MIB +0.1% The changes are mostly light, although UK stocks are dragged lower as the pound creeps up following the retail sales data earlier. US futures are more muted though, with S&P 500 futures seen flat currently. In FX, cable is up 0.4%

Fundamental Overview The bullish momentum in the US Dollar seems to be waning as GBPUSD couldn’t print a new low despite another set of strong US data. In fact, the US Retail Sales beat expectations across the board by a big margin and the US Jobless Claims came out much better than expected. One caveat

This is via a bipartisan think tank in the US, Urban-Brookings Tax Policy Center. A paper from the centre looks at the proposed 10% tariff on all products and materials imported from abroad … paired with a Trump-proposed 60% tariff on imports from China It concludes the impacts would include: trillions in revenue for the

German DAX futures flatFrench CAC 40 futures -0.1%UK FTSE futures -0.3% This comes with US futures also keeping rather flattish at the moment. It follows from the more muted showing in Wall Street yesterday, with early gains being erased. The Dow did end higher though but the S&P 500 and Nasdaq reverted back to square

Rate cuts by year-end Fed: 43 bps (92% probability of rate cut at the upcoming meeting) 2025: 142 bps ECB: 30 bps (80% probability of 25 bps rate cut at the upcoming meeting) 2025: 140 bps BoE: 43 bps (87% probability of rate cut at the upcoming meeting) 2025: 138 bps BoC: 80 bps (91%

The ECB delivered the widely anticipated 25bp rate cut today, with President Lagarde sticking to her guns on a meeting-by-meeting approach. Despite the ECB’s “no preset path” mantra, markets are already betting on another cut in December and a 22% chance they lower rates by 50 bps. Westpac highlights how Lagarde adopts the stance of

The People’s Bank of China set the onshore yuan (CNY) reference rate for the trading session ahead. USD/CNY is the onshore yuan. Its permitted to trade plus or minus 2% from this daily reference rate.CNH is the offshore yuan. USD /CNH has no restrictions on its trading range.A significantly stronger or weaker rate than expected

China’s National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) deputy chief comments: September economic indicators showed positive changesChina’s foreign trade situation this year better than expectedFoundation for economic recovery not solid yetWill speed up implementation of a basket of policy measures The data from China today began with that showing new home prices fell at the fastest rate

ECB cuts key rates by 25 bps in October monetary policy decision, as expectedLagarde opening statement: Economic activity has been somewhat weaker than expectedLagarde Q&A: All the data is headed in the same directionECB sources: Policymakers expect to cut in December unless data shows marked turnaroundUS September retail sales control group +0.7% vs +0.3% expectedUS

People’s Bank of China: Urges financial institutions to act swiftly in implementing expansive financial policiesNecessary to increase credit support for the real economy, maintain a reasonable growth in the total amount of money and creditNecessary to also strengthen the implementation and transmission of interest rate policies, and solidly organise the batch adjustment of interest rates

There is just one to take note of on the day, as highlighted in bold. That being for EUR/USD at the 1.0850 level. It isn’t one that ties too much with any key technical levels but the expiries could help to just keep a lid on price action for the session ahead. That considering there

Thursday: Some major Chinese banks are to lower deposit rates from Friday – report Cuts of 25bp confirmed now from China’s Industrial Commercial Bank, Communications Bank, China Merchants Bank This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen gave a speech on Thursday, warning about the impact of massive tariff hikes on inflation. Candidate for President Trump is proposing a blanket 10% tariff on all imported goods, along with tariffs of 60% or higher on imports from China. Economists expect that such imposts would be inflationary. In her

North Korea has cut ties with South Korea. Highways, etc. KJU on the blower now says South Korea is a foreign country and apparent hostile country. changed nature of the South Korean-US alliance, different military manoeuvre highlights the importance of stronger North Korean nuclear deterrent road closure means end of ‘evil’ relationship with Seoul Escalating

International Monetary Fund Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva: China’s stimulus measures are ‘in the right direction’ but structural reforms are needed to drive domestic consumption.China should not ‘rely on some miracle’ that would allow exports to keep driving growth with its massive size.China faces ‘trouble’ if it tries to stick to an export-led growth model, with

I posted the news earlier, but the long story short is this is the People’s Bank of China officially launching its relending facility to help listed firms stock repurchases and increasing shareholdings: PBOC Governor provides directions for stock buybacks This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

US website politico with the news: big Jack Smith document dump coming Friday before the election Trump had asked the judge in the case to delay the release of the special counsel’s evidence until after the election Pertinent details: U.S. District Judge Tanya Chutkan has agreed to release a dossier of evidence amassed by special

People’s Bank of China USD/CNY reference rate is due around 0115 GMT. The People’s Bank of China (PBOC), China’s central bank, is responsible for setting the daily midpoint of the yuan (also known as renminbi or RMB). The PBOC follows a managed floating exchange rate system that allows the value of the yuan to fluctuate

The broader S&P and NASDAQ index snatched defeat from the jaws of victory. The S&P index is closing marginally lower. The NASDAQ index is closing marginally higher after earlier gains are erased. A snapshot of the closing levels shows: Dow industrial average +161.35 points or 0.37% at 43239.05.S&P index -1.00 points or -0.02% at 5841.46.NASDAQ

USD/JPY rising above 150 ahead of the inflation data – what could possibly go wrong? Regardless of what the data says the Bank of Japan seems hell bent on jacking up rates. The market consensus is for a rate hike in December. Also on the agenda for the session ahead, economic activity data from China

The data is in the screen shot below. More: the unemployment rate in 31 cities was 5.1%January – September property investment was down 10.1% y/yJanuary – September infrastructure investment was +4.1% Offshore yuen is up a little after the data. All three of the major activity indicators were above expectations, with retail sales and industrial

The big shift in betting odds in Polymarket has people intrigued about what is happening under the surface that has some people more-confident that Trump will win the Presidency. He’s at 61% now and that’s spawned all kinds of conspiracy theories as the polls haven’t moved much. But I’m less interested in the Presidency for

USD/JPY is down, just above 150.00 as I update. Atsushi Mimura is Japan’s vice finance minister for international affairs, AKA ‘top currency diplomat’. Japan’s finance ministry is the relevant authority in Japan for ordering intervention in the JPY. Mimura has taken over from Kanda in charge of the relevant department, so it’s him who would

The ECB lowered rates by 25 basis points to 3.25%, as anticipated: ECB cuts key rates by 25 bps in October monetary policy decision, as expected Deutsche Bank with a quickie on what’s to come, saying that the ECB cited progress in the disinflation process and recent weaker-than-expected economic data. While the cut is notable

The ECB cut rates on Thursday: Forexlive Americas FX news wrap: ECB cuts rates, US retail sales beat estimates Given the state of the EU economy analysts are piling in projecting further rate cuts: RBC expect a cascade of European Central Bank rate cuts for the next six months+Forexlive Americas FX news wrap: ECB cuts

A spokesman for the Japanese government with verbal intervention to prop up the yen: Won’t comment on FX levelsimportant for currencies to move in a stable manner reflecting fundamentalsclosely watching FX moves with a high sense of urgency, including speculative moves. ‘Speculative’ is code for they are not happy. These comments follow similar earlier today:

A note this week from National Australia Bank shifting forward their projection for the RBA: We have brought forward our expectations for the timing of rate cuts, now seeing a first cut in February 2025 (previously May)we continue to see a gradual pace of cuts back to 3.10% by early 2026 Main points from the

The data is here: Japan data – September CPI Headline +2.5% y/y (vs. +2.5% expected) USD/JPY is not doing much in response, hovering near 150.20: USD/JPY seems to get up again everytime it takes a hit lower. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

Analysts at TD are, pretty much like the market, shrugging off the European Central Bank on Thursday: Forexlive Americas FX news wrap: ECB cuts rates, US retail sales beat estimates TD says there was no surprise from the ECB and that it took US data move the euro. TD add, though, they cannot be optimistic

RBC analysts are looking for a long series of European Central Bank rate cuts ahead: We expect both the European Central Bank and the Bank of England to cut interest rates by 25 bps at every meeting until May 2025, contingent on domestic inflation pressures continuing to slow. The thing is, that forecast was written

It’s tough to gauge exactly what the bond market is saying but US 10-year yields have risen 9 bps today and are trading at 4.10% from a low of 3.60% a month ago. A portion of that — for sure — is pricing out a recession. A month ago, non-farm payrolls were deteriorating and there

Prior +2.2%Core CPI +2.7% vs +2.7% y/y prelimPrior +2.8% The core estimate is unchanged from the initial reading, so it just reaffirms that the ECB can still get away with sneaking in a rate cut later in the day. This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

The euro fell to a two-month low of 1.0812 during the ECB press conference. Some of that was on the US dollar side as retail sales beat expectations but the bulk of today’s 40 pip decline in domestically driven. The ECB just doesn’t seem to get it. Lagarde repeatedly highlighted downside risks to growth and

We’re ticking down to the first release of Q3 GDP and so these numbers are worth tuning into and so far, they’re impressive. The latest shift is to 3.4% from 3.2%. After recent releases from the US Census Bureau, the US Bureau of Labor Statistics, and the Federal Reserve Board of Governors, the nowcast of

The USDJPY is extending above the high from earlier this week at 149.974 for the 2nd time today, but is finding more upside momentum on this break.. The price just reached 150.29. The price of the USDJPY has traders now focused on other targets above including the 50% midpoint of the move down from the

National Australia Bank outlook for the US Federal Reserve, in brief: US economy remains resilientsubstantial progress made in reducing inflation, well anchored inflation expectations and a better supply and demand balance (particularly in the labour market) means less restrictive interest rate settings are needed Fed is expected to cut rates (and our central case is

Crude oil inventories -2191K vs +1835K expGasoline inventories -2201K vs -1471K expDistillates inventories -3543K vs -2181K expRefinery utilization +1.0% versus expectations of -0.6% Private oil inventories released late yesterday: Crude -1580KGasoline -5926KDistillates -2672K WTI crude oil was trading up by 40-cents to $70.80 ahead of the report and these numbers should add to that. This

USDCHF: The USDCHF moved lower from earlier highs but found support buyer near the 38.2% of the move down from the July high at 0.86318. The inability to move and stay below that level increases the levels importance going forward technically. If that level hold, the buyers remain in control. If the price moves below

Goldman Sachs on the European Central Bank, projecting 25bp rate cuts at the meetings in October (later today, 17 October 2024)DecemberJanuaryMarchAprilJune Down to 2% Goldman Sachs have a similar outlook for the US Federal Reserve: Goldman Sachs forecast a long series of consecutive FOMC 25bp rate cuts ahead This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan

Policymakers expect to cut in December unless there is an economic turnaround, according to Reuters sources. This is no surprise to the market, which is full priced for 25 bps and 15% priced for 50 bps. This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

The People’s Bank of China set the onshore yuan (CNY) reference rate for the trading session ahead. USD/CNY is the onshore yuan. Its permitted to trade plus or minus 2% from this daily reference rate.CNH is the offshore yuan. USD /CNH has no restrictions on its trading range.A significantly stronger or weaker rate than expected

Closing changes in Europe: Stoxx 600 +0.7%German DAX +0.7%France CAC +1.3%UK FTSE 100 +0.7%Spain IBEX -0.7%Italy’s FTSE MIB +1.0% European stock markets peaked at the time of the US open but sagged alongside US stocks after the open. The DAX touched a record but then gave much of it back. This article was written by

The major US stock indices are moving higher in early trading led by the NASDAQ index. Better economic data is fueling the gains with retail sales, Philadelphia Fed manufacturing, and initial jobless claims all better than expected. TSMC earnings were higher than expectations overnight. Their shares are currently up over 8%. Nvidia shares are also

The Australia jobs report is due at 11.30 am Sydney time: 0030 GMT2030 US Eastern time I posted earlier on how the performance of the employment markets is giving the Reserve Bank of Australia the space to hold its cash rate high. More of the same expected today. CBA is forecasting a tick higher in

Nvidia is the most-important stock market chart today. The chipmaker took a hit earlier this week on a slowdown at ASML but that weakness was related to non-AI chips and they said that AI-demand was unblemished. Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang also said that Blackwell chip demand is “insane”. The market found the dip this week

I don’t expect comments on the economy or monetary policy. Famous last words? We’ll soon find out! 2000 GMT / 1600 US Eastern time: Sam Woods deputy governor of Prudential Regulation and CEO of Prudential Regulation Authority of Bank of England delivers speech at Annual City Banquet at Mansion House This article was written by

Ahead of each European Central Bank meeting ING distribute their awesome ‘cheat sheet’. Preamble: ECB widely expected to cut by 25bpafter the recent inflation slowdownWe explore how a market positioned for a predictable outcome could react to a surprise hold or more dovish guidance. We retain a bias for higher front-end EUR rates, and further

The NZDUSD has been consolidating over the last week or so of trading with the 61.8% of the move up from the August low. That level comes in at 0.60509. Last week, the price held that level, bounced, and then broke below the level but quickly rebounded. This week the price returned to the 61.8%

The data is here, very, very strong. Unemployment down despite the participation rate rising. Australian September unemployment rate 4.1% (vs. 4.2% expected) I posted earlier that the continued strong jobs numbers in Australia is giving the RBA space to hold its cash rate high to fight stick inflation. Thats still the case after this report.

Prior was 41Current sales 47 vs 45 priorProspective sales 29 vs 27 priorHome sales over the next six months 57 vs 53 prior I’m surprised at the improvement given rising yields and mortgage rates but this is another sign of the strength of the US economy and an impressive one. US 30-year yields are up

Prior month business inventories 0.4%Prior month retail inventories ex auto 0.5%Business inventories for August 0.3% versus 0.3% expectedRetail inventories ex autos 0.5% versus 0.5% last month Sales: The combined value of distributive trade sales and manufacturers’ shipments for August, adjusted for seasonal and trading day differences but not for price changes, was estimated at $1,876.8

A US official cited by Reuters says: Watching outcome of upcoming Putin-Xi meeting in RussiaExpects trend of deepening support between China and Russia to continueSees indications that China and Russia are feeling the pressure of sanctions and trying to circumvent themUS issues new sanctions on two Chinese entities that help produce military goods for Russia

Prior week 258K revised to 260KInitial jobless claims 241K vs 260K est4-week moving average initial jobless claims 236.25K vs 231.5K priorContinuing Claims 1.867M vs 1.865M estimate. Prior week of continuing claims revised to 1.858M versus 1.861M previously reported4 week moving average of continuing claims 1.843M vs 1.831M prior week (revised) Looking at the largest increases

The USDCAD moved up for 9 consecutive days and was on its way to 10 straight on Tuesday before hitting a resistance target area near 1.3833 to 1.3847 and finding sellers/profit takers. The move back to the downside saw the price move down for 2 days and back to a low today of 1.3743 –

Fundamental Overview The US Dollar has been gaining ground across the board this week despite the lack of economic data and lower Treasury yields, essentially moving forward by inertia. Stanley Druckenmiller said in an interview yesterday that the market is already positioning for a Trump victory given the moves in some stocks like DJT for

Prior decisionDeposit facility rate 3.25% vs 3.25% expectedPrior 3.50%Main refinancing rate 3.40% vs 3.40% expectedPrior 3.65%Marginal lending facility 3.65%Prior 3.90%Incoming information shows that the disinflationary process is well on trackThe inflation outlook is also affected by recent downside surprises in indicators of economic activityInflation is expected to rise in the coming months, before declining to

Gold is up $22 to $2695 today and threatening to touch $2700 for the first time. I’m watching China as a catalyst. Chinese stocks are lower again today as they continue to retrace the big October rally. Earlier today, Chinese officials touted a big announcement to support real estate but then actual announcement was less-than-impressive

The idea of lowering deposit rates is that it pushes savers into other instruments like stocks. I’d expect some to gravitate towards gold but these are marginal moves at best and certainly not the types of game-changers that China bulls would like to see. This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

Trudeau and the ruling Liberal Party are polling terribly in Canada so the knives are out. Yesterday, the Globe and Mail reported that a backbench revolt is brewing and that he could face a demand from 20 MPs to give up party leadership. Now, four cabinet ministers say they wont’ seek relection. National Revenue Minister

Sweeping, untargeted tariffs would raise prices for US householdsThere is a growing international consensus that China must shift its economic practicesChina policies are leading to industrial overcapacity, threatening US firms and workers All I see there is that if Trump wins the election and locks horns with China, it is likely to stoke inflation pressures.

The ECB cut rates by 25 basis points as expected. The US data dump at 8:30 AM ET was stronger than expected with retail sales, Philadelphia Fed manufacturing, and initial jobless claims all better than expected. In this video take a look at the three major currency pairs from a technical perspective. EURUSD is bearish

Prior CHF 4.58 billion; revised to CHF 4.74 billion The Swiss trade surplus grew slightly in September with the breakdown as per below: This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

US stocks rebound and retrace some of the declines from yesterday’s tradeCanadian cardholder spending data “nothing short of abysmal” in latest RBC reportCrude oil settled at $70.39The euro slumps to a two-month low ahead of Thursday’s ECB decisionRBC: Job market poses bigger risk to Canadian economy than mortgage renewalsIsrael assure US that they will act

Fundamental Overview The US Dollar has been gaining ground across the board this week despite the lack of economic data and lower Treasury yields, essentially moving forward by inertia. Stanley Druckenmiller said in an interview yesterday that the market is already positioning for a Trump victory given the moves in some stocks like DJT for

After declines of -324.80 points in the Dow yesterday, it retraced all those declines and closed higher by 337.28 points or 0.79% at 43077.70. The S&P and Nasdaq indices were not as robust in their retracement gains today: S&P index fell -44.59 points or -0.76% at 5815.26 yesterday. Today the index rose 27.21 points or

Fundamental Overview Copper erased most of the gains from last month’s strong Chinese easing measures as the market got disappointed on the lack of follow through. In fact, this is something we’ve seen also in the Chinese equity markets with the Hang Seng index being down 14%. There’s a strong correlation between the Chinese stock

The disinflation process is well on trackThis decision is an example of data dependenceEconomic activity has come in below what we anticipatedDecember will be another opportunity to put the information in our modelWhat was debated was 25 basis points, end of story (not 50 bps)Decision to cut 25 bps was unanimous I didn’t open the

Sector Overview Today’s market heatmap reveals a vibrant day for the semiconductor sector, with key players like Nvidia (NVDA) jumping 2.85% and Broadcom (AVGO) skyrocketing 3.13%. These gains underline strong investor confidence and sector momentum, possibly fueled by demand forecasts or innovation announcements. Meanwhile, the technology sector overall is enjoying a positive trajectory, driven by

The ECB did cut rates by 25 basis points as expected. A summary shows: Interest Rate Changes: Lowered the deposit facility rate by 25 basis points Decreased the interest rates on main refinancing operations to 3.65% Decreased the marginal lending facility rate to 3.90% Changes took effect on September 18, 2024 Inflation Projections: Headline inflation

The latest from the Australian Bureau of Statistics for the Labour Force report, September 2024. This is a smashingly good jobs report, AUD/USD has Employment +64.1k expected +25.0k, prior +47.5k Unemployment Rate 4.1% expected 4.2%, prior 4.2% Participation Rate 67.2% expected 67.1%, prior 67.1% Full Time Employment +51.6k prior -3.1k I posted earlier that robust

Goldman Sachs on the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC), are projecting 25bp rate cuts at the meetings in November DecemberJanuaryMarchMayJune “To a terminal rate of 3.25 – 3.5%” The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) next meet on November 6 and 7, then December 17 and 18. After that: This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan

In the European session, the main event will be the ECB rate decision where the central bank is expected to cut by 25 bps. In the American session, we will get lots of US data including Industrial Production, NAHB Housing Index and the Philly Fed Manufacturing Index. The focus though will be on the US

People’s Bank of China USD/CNY reference rate is due around 0115 GMT. The People’s Bank of China (PBOC), China’s central bank, is responsible for setting the daily midpoint of the yuan (also known as renminbi or RMB). The PBOC follows a managed floating exchange rate system that allows the value of the yuan to fluctuate

The disinflationary process is well on trackManufacturing has continued to contractServices activity showed an uptick in August but latest data is more sluggishBusiness are increasing investment slowlyHousing investment continues to fallSavings rate is well above the pre-pandemic period (about 3 percentage points)Labor market remains resilientWe expect the economy to strengthen over timeExports should contribute to

Fundamental Overview The US Dollar has been gaining ground across the board this week despite the lack of economic data and lower Treasury yields, essentially moving forward by inertia. Stanley Druckenmiller said in an interview yesterday that the market is already positioning for a Trump victory given the moves in some stocks like DJT for

German DAX futures +0.1%French CAC 40 futures -0.1%UK FTSE futures +0.2% UK stocks will be looking to keep the bounce from yesterday going later but the overall market mood is more tepid for now. European indices saw a mixed showing yesterday with the DAX easing slightly further after having touched record highs earlier in the

Officials from the Housing Ministry, the People’s Bank of China, the Finance Ministry and the National Financial Regulatory Administration will hold a joint briefing at 10 am Beijing time on Thursday 17 October 2024: 0200 GMT2200 US Eastern time They’ll be providing details (maybe!) on measures to support the property sector. Chinese property-developer stocks rallied