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China’s stock market has experienced a meteoric rise, with the Shanghai Composite surging by as much as 36% from the September low at one point today. However the profit-taking started immediately, with the opening print today as the high. The problem with this rally is that it’s been built on a shaky foundation and looks […]

I will support additional rate cuts if progress on inflation continues as expected.I want a balanced approach to make progress on inflation and avoid an undesireable slowdown in jobs and economic growth.Our approach to any policy decision will continue to be data dependent.If downside risks to employment escalates, cutting rates more quickly may be appropriate.If

The major US stock indices retraced their gains from Friday’s trade. On Friday, Dow rose 341 pointsS&P index rose 51.13 pointsNASDAQ rose 219.37 point. In trading today, Dow industrial average fell -398.51 points or -0.94% at 41954.24S&P index fell -55.13 points or -0.96% at 5695.94.NASDAQ index fell minus 2.3.95 points or -1.18% at 17923.90. The

National Australia Bank business survey September 2024 Business confidence -2 prior -5 Business conditions +7 prior +4 NAB commentary: “Some of last month’s fall in confidence was reversed in September but confidence remains well below average,” “Interestingly, as we think we are passing through the weakest point in economic growth for this cycle, business conditions

Riksbank’s Bunge: We are more confident that the period of high inflation is behind us.Riksbank’s Bunge: At the same time, we are in a mild downturn and it is important that the Swedish economy now recovers. This article was written by Arno V Venter at www.forexlive.com.

Prior was +0.68 billion (revised to -$0.29 billion)Exports $64.31 billion vs $65.66 billion prior (revised to $64.94 billion)Imports $65.41 billion vs $64.97 billion prior (revised to $65.22 billion) This data was delayed but has now crossed and points to some modest further downside risks to Q3 Canadian growth. This article was written by Adam Button

Fundamental Overview The USD rallied across the board last Friday following the hot US NFP report. The market priced out all the aggressive expectations and it’s now finally in line with the Fed’s projections. The focus remains on the economic data. The next key event to watch will be the US CPI report on Thursday.

Iran’s foreign minister to visit Saudi Arabia and regional nations to address escalating tensions Full Story on PiQ Suite Iran’s Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi will visit Saudi Arabia and other regional countries to discuss stopping what he described as Israel’s “crimes” in Gaza and Lebanon. Gulf Arab states, while neutral in the Iran-Israel conflict, continue

Westpac-Melbourne Institute index of consumer sentiment for October 2024, up 6.2% m/m from September, to 89.8. Below 100 is net negative, but its not as bad as it was at least. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

The Newsquawk Europe Market Open: China’s NDRC press conference met with disappointment, several Fed speakers due FULL NOTE APAC stocks were ultimately mixed after the negative lead from Wall St; China’s NDRC press conference was met with disappointment.European equity futures are indicative of a negative cash open with the Euro Stoxx 50 future -0.8% after

Federal Reserve speakers on Tuesday include Kugler, Bostic, Collins, JeffersonECB board member Isabel Schnabel will be speaking TuesdayRBA’s Hauser says Bank must remain strong in fight against inflationChina NDRC conference continues, AUD slips a little furtherAUD/USD dipping as China’s NDRC press conference gets underwayBank of England Deputy Governor Breeden speaking on TuesdayChina stockmarkets leaping higher

Iran Warns Israel of Stronger Retaliation if Attacked Amid Rising Tensions Full Story on PiQ Suite Iran has issued a warning to Israel, stating that any attack on its infrastructure will be met with stronger retaliation. Following a missile strike on Israel last week and the threat of further escalation, tensions in the region are

China’s top economic planner expressed confidence in meeting its 2024 economic and social development targets, supported by accelerated fiscal spending and the early release of funds from the 2025 budget. Full Story on PiQ Suite While stimulus measures initially boosted market sentiment, challenges persist due to global trade volatility, rising protectionism, and internal economic pressures,

The People’s Bank of China set the onshore yuan (CNY) reference rate for the trading session ahead. USD/CNY is the onshore yuan. Its permitted to trade plus or minus 2% from this daily reference rate.CNH is the offshore yuan. USD /CNH has no restrictions on its trading range.A significantly stronger or weaker rate than expected

Inflation in the Euro Area converged towards goal. This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at www.forexlive.com.

The Chief Economist at Westpac NZ, Kelly Eckhold, says there is some commentary about that a 75bp rate cut from the Reserve Bank of New Zealand could happen at the Bank’s meeting tomorrow, Wednesday, October 9, 2024. Eckhold sees a 75bp rate cut as not very likely, and not appropriate right now. The WPAC analysis

It’s another empty day in terms of data releases with just the US NFIB Small Business Optimism index on the agenda. The consensus sees an uptick to 91.7 vs. 91.2 prior. This is not a market moving report in general. It will likely be another day of choppy price action in FX as the markets

ECB’s Vasle: Inflation risks are abating but there is still some uncertainty.ECB’s Vasle: An October cut doesn’t necessarily mean another in December. ECB’s Vasle: An interest-rate cut in October is an option. I’d say it’s more than just an option looking at the deceleration in EU CPI as well as the dismal growth numbers we’ve

NFIB small business optimism index 91.5 vs 91.2 prior The NFIB Small Business Optimism Index rose by 0.3 points in September to 91.5. This is the 33rd consecutive month below the 50-year average of 98. The Uncertainty Index rose 11 points to 103, the highest reading recorded. Fifty-one percent of owners reported capital outlays in

China’s State Council held special study session on economic policies on Tuesday – State media.China’s Premier Li: Will strengthen policy coordination – State media.China’s Premier Li: Policy implementation should reflect good timing, strength, and pace – State media This article was written by Arno V Venter at www.forexlive.com.

These explosions could be what’s weighing on sentiment at the moment. This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

Open to October rate cut. The comments around an October cut are not market moving anymore as the market has already fully priced in such a move weeks ago. This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at www.forexlive.com.

Japan data – Household spending for August 2024 +2.0% m/m expected +0.5%, prior -1.7% -1.9% y/y expected -2.6%, prior +0.1% A decent improvement m/m and not as bad y/y. A yen positive at the margin. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

1030 GMT / 0630 US Eastern time: Bank of England Deputy Governor Sarah Breeden takes part in a panel discussion on “The changing market environment and shifting global dynamics” at London’s International Capital Markets Conference — The Bank of England is on a rate cutting cycle, the next meeting is November 7, with expectations of

JP Morgan analysts suggest that U.S. stocks appear overextended following a recent rally, which may increase the risk of market concentration and the chance of a momentum shift. The bank noted that while the U.S. has generally performed better than other regions during market downturns, the fact that U.S. stocks are trading at high price-to-earnings

ECB’s Frank Elderson highlighted growing concerns about weakening economic growth, suggesting that several indicators are pointing to risks becoming a reality. Full Native Story With the European Central Bank remaining open-minded ahead of the October 17th meeting, Elderson emphasized that policy decisions are being made on a meeting-by-meeting basis. This cautious approach reflects the ECB’s

A social media outlet is posting a comment : JEROME POWELL: PENCILS IN POLICY PATH “SLIGHTLY ABOVE” THE MEDIAN I have no information that Powell is speaking. I have not seen any other source reporting such a comment. I suggest it is an error. But, still, ES dropped … bouncing back now: This article was

Wages data Japan for August 2024. Total cash earnings +3.0% y/y expected +3.1%, prior +3.6% Inflation adjusted real wages -0.6% y/y Overtime pay +2.6% y/y Disappointing data on wages on balance and not as yen positive as it could be, at the margin (BOJ wants higher wagers to drive inflation) This article was written by

St. Louis Fed President Alberto Musalem speech, “Financial Conditions, the Economic Outlook and Monetary Policy,” at a Money Marketeers of New York University Inc. event. More rate cuts likely given economic outlook.Won’t predict timing or size of future Fed easings.Personal rate outlook is above Fed’s median view.Costs of easing too much outweigh easing too little.Supported

Nasdaq Forecast: Key Levels to Watch as Bear Flag Forms The Nasdaq 100 (NDX) is currently showing signs of a potential breakdown from its ascending channel, a pattern commonly associated with bearish price movement. As traders and investors closely monitor this development, understanding the technical setup and market drivers is essential. Below, we highlight the

Federal Reserve Bank of New York President John Williams suggested that further rate cuts will be appropriate over time, aligning with Chair Jerome Powell’s outlook for gradual reductions. Full Story on PiQ Suite Williams told the FT: “I personally expect that it will be appropriate again to bring interest rates down over time,” “Right now,

Reserve Bank of Australia September meeting minutes Board discussed scenarios for lowering and raising interest rates in the future.Board members felt not enough had changed from previous meetings, and that the current cash rate best balanced risks to inflation and the labor market.Future financial conditions might need to be tighter or looser than at present

The National Development and Reform Commission of the People’s Republic of China (NDRC) is China’s ‘state planner’. The press conference was much hyped for another big dose of stimulus. So far there has been nothing of note. AUD and other FX is drifting off a bit on the disappointment. Chinese markets are coming back from

Global Times with the info: China’s total cross-regional flow of people during the weeklong National Day holidays from October 1 to 7 is estimated to be about 2.008 billion trips, with an average daily year-on-year growth of 4.1%, preliminary statistics from the Ministry of Transport show on Tuesday. ps. markets in China are opening: China’s

The ECB next meet on October 17. A 25bp rate cut is expected. 0700 GMT / 0300 US Eastern time: Chairing of keynote session by ECB board member Isabel Schnabel at ECB Conference on Monetary Policy: bridging science and practice 1015 GMT / 0615 US Eastern time: Keynote speech and fireside chat by ECB board

Unconfirmed reports of explosions in Iran, Isfahan. Isfahan is the site of key Iranian nuclear facilities Iranian Media and Channels are continuing to deny any attack /incident in the Isfahan Province This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

Times listed are in GMT/US Eastern time format: 0700/0300 Federal Reserve Board Governor Adriana Kugler speaks on “Global Inflation” before hybrid European Central Bank Conference on Monetary Policy 20241645/1245 Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta President Raphael Bostic gives remarks and participates in moderated conversation on the economic outlook before the Atlanta consular corps luncheon2000/1600 Federal

So far at the press conference its upbeat comments about how great the economy is. NDRC Chairman says China’s economy is largely stableChina’s economy is facing a more complex internal and external environmentsnew policies will improve health of economic actorsFully confident of achieving 2024 economic growth goals This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at

People’s Bank of China USD/CNY reference rate is due around 0115 GMT. The People’s Bank of China (PBOC), China’s central bank, is responsible for setting the daily midpoint of the yuan (also known as renminbi or RMB). The PBOC follows a managed floating exchange rate system that allows the value of the yuan to fluctuate

Japan economy minister Akazawa: Decrease in real wages for first time in three months is not a good newsGovt will create environment where real wages continue to rise Referring to the data earlier: Japan labor cash earnings +3.0% y/y in August (expected +3.1%) This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

ICYMI, the European Central Bank provided a transcript of remarks from Executive Board member Piero Cipollone made in an interview with Austrian public broadcaster ORF conducted back on September 27. Sheesh, took ’em a while! In summary, Cipollone’s comments point to a rate cut at the Bank’s October 17 meeting, a result widely expected in

ICYMI, via a Goldman Sachs note on Friday, the firm raised its targets for the US benchmark S&P 500 index: 6000 by end 2024 (their prior forecast was 5600)6300 within 12 months (prior 6000)add that these targets may be ‘too low’ GS cite: “our economists’ forecast for U.S. GDP growth is above consensus”higher margin growth

From the Federal Reserve: 2200 GMT /1800 US Eastern time: Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta President Raphael Bostic moderates “Dynamic Business of Professional Sports” conversation before the Atlanta Fed’s Leading Voice Series, in Atlanta, Ga2230 GMT /1830 US Eastern time: Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis President Alberto Musalem speaks on the U.S. economy and

I posted info on this yesterday. ICYMI: A press conference has been scheduled for Tuesday (when mainland Chinese markets reopen after the week-long holiday) by the state planner, the National Development and Reform Commission of the People’s Republic of China (NDRC). It’ll cover the topic of “systematic implementation of a package of incremental policies, the

The USDCAD has broken above the swing area between 1.3615 and 1.3622 (see earlier video). Earlier today, the price extended above its 200-day moving average at 1.36012, and then based against the moving average before moving higher. The buyers continue to push and are now looking toward the high price from September which came in

Credit Agricole reports that the Australian dollar (AUD) has become the largest long position in G10 FX, while the Canadian dollar (CAD) continues to hold the largest short position, according to their latest FX positioning model. Key Points: AUD Positioning: The AUD has overtaken other currencies to become the largest long position in G10 FX,

Balance of risks have shifted away from higher inflation towards maybe higher inflationOverall the US economy is resilientNot seeing signs of resurgent inflationReduction in new rents gives us confidence that housing inflation will come down More to come as he participates in a moderated discussion. This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

Good morning, afternoon and evening all. Any charts, technical analysis, trade ideas, thoughts, views, ForexLive traders would like to share and discuss with fellow ForexLive traders, please do so: This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

Fed’s Kashkari: The balance of risks has shifted towards higher employmentUS September employment trends 108.48 vs 109.04 priorBank of Italy: Small deviations in gov’t budget could jeopardize deficit plansHurricane Milton rapidly intensifies into Category 5 hurricaneECB’s Holzman: Inflation fight is far from overFTX liquidation plan receives court approvalReports of explosions in central IsraelUS offered Israel

The price of crude oil is trading at $77.22 that’s up $2.83 or 3.81%. The high price reached $77.36. The low price was at $73.65. Crude oil futures settled at $77.14 up $2.76 or 3.71%. Expectations of a retaliatory strike against Iran is leading to the surge. Today was the first anniversary of the terrorist

The major US stock indices are trading to lows for the day. The Dow industrial average is leading with a decline of -1%. The declines are led by Travelers, Amazon, Walt Disney. The low for the tail reached 41891.81. Earlier, the price fell below its 100 hour moving average of 42071.77. The low price from

Aside from the usual geopolitical headaches-especially in the Middle East, which appears to be on the brink of a major war, investors last week kept a close eye on the dockers’ strike at several U.S. ports. The problem arose over a six-year contract that was due to expire on September 30. However, the port owners

The S&P index is trading near lows for the day at their -27.7 points or -0.47% have 5723.90. The low price has reached 5722.27. Looking at the hourly chart, the price is currently testing its 50 hour moving average at 5722.42 (black moving average line in the chart above). A move below that level would

Western Japan Firms Expect China Slowdown to Persist, Says BOJ Official Full Story on PiQ Suite Many companies in western Japan, particularly in electronics, are adjusting their business plans to account for a prolonged slowdown in exports to China, according to Bank of Japan’s Osaka branch. These firms also prefer stable exchange rate movements, given

Friday’s non-farm payrolls report has some people rethinking the path of rates but this chart is a reminder that jobs data is undoubtedly slacking. The employment trends data is a composite of already-released data and it’s now slightly below pre-pandemic levels. This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

The moves were mostly minor to start the week but generally to the upside after a poor week last week. On the day: Stoxx 600 +0.2%Germany DAX flatFrance CAC +0.5%UK FTSE 100 +0.2%Spain IBEX +0.5%Italy FTSE MIB +0.6% This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

The US jobs report on Friday showed much stronger than expected job growth. Stocks moved higher. Yields moved higher. The market adjusted for the potential for no rate hike in November. The expectation is now up to 14.5% (with 85% for a cut of 25 basis points). A couple weeks ago the markets were preparing

No surprise here but this kind of talk won’t stop the ECB from continuing in an easing cycle. This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

Morgan Stanley forecasts that the September CPI report will show core inflation rising by 0.26%, slightly exceeding consensus expectations. While goods inflation is expected to improve due to used cars and airfares, services inflation is projected to decelerate. The report’s implications for headline and core inflation will guide expectations for the Fed’s monetary policy stance.

The AUDUSD has fallen below the 200 bar MA on the 4-hour chart at 0.67813 and also the 50% midpoint of the move up from the September low (also at that level). The fall below that level has led to more selling with the pair moving toward a swing area between 0.67487 and 0.67604. Getting

As it’s usually the case for Mondays, the calendar today is a bit dull with the Eurozone retail sales as the only economic release. The focus today will likely be on the Fedspeak following the surprisingly strong NFP report last Friday. Overall, the market is either going to go with the recent US jobs data

Fundamental Overview Crude oil rallied strongly last week following the tensions in the Middle East between Israel and Iran. We also got some key technical breakouts that increased the bullish momentum. Last Friday, we also got a strong US NFP report which cast aside recessionary fears and strengthened the case for a future pick up

Hurricane Milton is now blowing at 135 kt, which is a Categoy-5 storm, according to the US NHC and has flight-level wind peaks at 146 kt. It has intensified faster than expected and a small eye has now developed. “By tomorrow, its intensity should be dictated by any eyewall replacement cycles, which will likely cause

Via the latest Recruitment and Employment Confederation (REC) and KPMG survey growth in starting pay for permanent roles was the lowest since February 2021.monthly index of permanent job placements continued a two-year decline, though the hiring drop was less severe than in August.increase in available candidates for rolesvacancies dropped for the 11th consecutive month at

HSBC expect a 25bp rate cut at the November 6 – 7 meeting, followed by another at the December 17 – 18 meeting, then in January, March, May and June, for a total of six consecutive 25 rate cuts. The calendar for the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) in 2025: The forecast comes HSBC Global

The reports are continuing of an ‘imminent’ Israel attack on Iran and no one is willing to fade oil until it’s clear what is being hit. In all likelihood there will be a further spike if/when the strikes start followed by a ‘sell the fact’ trade so long as the damage to export facilities isn’t

Goldman Sachs has exited its long GBP/CHF position with a small profit last week, noting that Sterling has underperformed its usual risk beta. Despite recent tactical setbacks influenced by Bank of England (BoE) Governor Bailey’s comments and geopolitical developments, Goldman Sachs maintains a constructive outlook on the British pound, supported by structural drivers and a

Some headlines from the Bank of Italy ISTAT revision implies downward mechanical correction of 0.2 pp of GDP from estimate of 1.0%Small deviations from govt’ budget plans could make it difficult to bring deficit below EU’s 3% of GDP limit in 2026Sees slight GDP expansion in Q3 Do European budget rules even matter anymore? They

The NZDUSD has been moving steadily to the downside after peaking at the start of last week near 0.63778. The low price today has reached 0.6116 so far – 262 pips in a relatively short period of time. In doing so the price has started to extend into a cluster of technical levels including the:

FBS, a leading global broker, has released a new analysis exploring how anticipated U.S. interest rate adjustments could influence the cryptocurrency market, with a particular focus on Bitcoin. According to FBS analysts, the Federal Reserve’s monetary policies play a significant role in shaping market dynamics, including investor behavior toward digital assets. FBS analysts reference the

The USDCAD is running to the upside in the early North American session to start the week, and in the process is ticking above the 200 day moving average 1.3601. Getting and staying above that moving average will be a shift more in favor of the buyers. For the pair, the price in September based

It’s not everyday that major equity benchmarks move like meme stocks. Chinese equities have been an a rip since the country came out with their new stimulus plans, and there has been numerous articles of big players rushing in and desperately trying to get some China exposure. The HK50 below is up nearly 40% since

Market expects a 25bp rate cut from the ECB next week, driven by weak economic sentiment and inflation falling below 2%.Arguments for a cut include worsening growth and inflation outlooks, with disinflationary trends and some ECB officials showing support for a cut.But the bank says there are valid arguments against a cut and point to

The week is off and running. What technical levels are in play for the 3 major currency pairs for today/for the trading week? In this video, I outline and explain where traders should focus not only today, but also as the week progresses. EURUSD: The EURUSD moved sharply lower last week and culminated with the

Investor sentiment in the euro zone improved in October after months of decline, driven by higher expectations despite ongoing dissatisfaction with the current economic situation. Full Story on PiQ Suite The Sentix index rose more than expected, reflecting optimism about potential economic recovery in the region, with rate cuts from the European Central Bank and

Eurozone retail sales YY 0.8% vs 1.0% expected Eurozone retail sales MM 0.2% vs 0.2% expected This article was written by Arno V Venter at www.forexlive.com.

Fundamental Overview The USD rallied across the board last Friday following the hot US NFP report. The market priced out all the aggressive expectations and it’s now finally in line with the Fed’s projections. The focus remains on the economic data. If we keep getting strong US data, then USDCHF will likely continue to drift

Rate cuts by year-end Fed: 52 bps (94% probability of 25 bps rate cut at the upcoming meeting) 2025: 142 bps ECB: 50 bps (98% probability of 25 bps rate cut at the upcoming meeting) 2025: 148 bps BoE: 36 bps (93% probability of 25 bps rate cut at the upcoming meeting) 2025: 118 bps

The latest data from both NOAA and Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that Milton continues to rapidly strengthen and has now become a Category-3 hurricane. “The radar analysis below shows a very strong, compact inner core that continues to intensify quickly,” the NHC said in its latest forecast discussion. That forecast now shows a

If you are a buyer of the USD – of the USDCHF – this is the place to buy. Why? The old “Red Box” (see chart below) that confined the trading range going back to August 20, peaked at 0.85368. The price is down testing that area and also the 38.2% retracement of the move

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India’s central bank has instructed both state-run and private banks to refrain from taking significant short positions against the rupee as it approaches record-low levels. Full Story on PiQ Suite The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) intervened via informal communications to stabilize the currency, which has been under pressure for several trading sessions. This article

The reports of an ‘imminent’ attack from Israel on Iran have been doing the rounds for days now but they’re coming even faster today. That could be because it’s Monday and everyone is back watching or it could be enough smoke to signal fire. Today is also the one-year anniversary of the Oct 7 music

Sector Overview and Performance The U.S. stock market today is a mix of contrasting fortunes, with the healthcare sector showing solid gains, while consumer cyclical encounters significant setbacks. Notably, Pfizer (PFE) stands out with a remarkable rise of 2.48%, leading the healthcare charge alongside other contributors. However, Amazon (AMZN) struggles in the consumer sector, posting

As the North American session begins, the CHF is the strongest and the GBP is the weakest. The USD is mixed to start the new trading week. Stocks are lower/US yields are higher the day after the better than expected jobs report on Friday. The expectations for a 25 bp cut at the next meeting

Fundamental Overview Gold lost some momentum recently following better than expected US data. Real yields rose and started to put some pressure on gold. This week we have the US CPI report on Thursday, and we might see some hedging into a potentially higher than expected Core measure given the commentary in the latest US

The US and Canadian economies appear to be heading in the opposite directions and that’s lifted USD/CAD to a three-week high. The pair is up 30 pips to 1.3601 today in the fifth day of gains. The latest push saw the pair edge above offers at 1.3600 that restrained the pair in early European trade.

US economic data is nil today but we will get a chance to hear from Fed speakers as the market has pared November rate cut pricing down to just 88% for 25 bps and a 12% chance of no change. First up is the Fed hawk and dissenter Bowman at 1 pm ET. She is

I posted over the weekend on Saudi Aramco raising the official selling price of its key Arab Light crude to Asia by 90 cents, bringing it to a $2.20 per barrel premium over the regional benchmarkvs. expected 65 cents / bbl. On the other hand, the Saudi the state owned oil producer cut prices to

United Kingdom Halifax House Price Index (MoM) (Sep)Actual: 0.3% 🟢 Expected: 0.2% Previous: 0.3% This article was written by Ryan Paisey at www.forexlive.com.

Coming up from the Reserve Bank of Australia on Tuesday, October 8, 2024 are September meeting minutes: at 11.30am Sydney time, which is 0030 GMT and 2030 US Eastern time (Tuesday evening)the details of the Bank’s September 2024 monetary policy decision Following at midday Sydney time (0100 GMT / 2100 US Eastern time) is a

Hurricane hunters sees hurricane Milton as a major hurricaneING says an October ECB cut is not guaranteedAll eyes on Chinese equities after last week’s bank holidaysUS 10-year treasury yields back above 4%Risk is trading mostly cautious so far across major asset classesEurozone retail sales YY 0.8% vs 1.0% expectedReserve Bank of India Urges Banks to

Japan Leading Index (Aug) Actual: 106.7 🔴 Expected: 107.2 Previous: 109.3 Leading Index Actual: -2.6% Previous: 0.2% Coincident Indicator (MoM) Actual: -3.7% Previous: 3.1% This article was written by Ryan Paisey at www.forexlive.com.

Goldman Sachs lowers odds of US recession to 15% after better-than-expected jobs report Full Story on PiQ Suite Goldman Sachs has lowered the odds of the United States slipping into a recession in the next 12 months by five percentage points to 15%, following the latest employment report that showed better-than-expected data. The Wall Street

Japanese Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba has ruled out raising the capital gains tax, affirming his government’s commitment to maintain the current 20% flat rate on investment income. Full Story on PiQ Suite This move is aimed at encouraging investment and reducing the tax burden on high-income earners, especially those who gain significantly from stock and

Markets are trading with a negative bias so far this morning, with a lot for markets to think about. Equity futures have taken a push lower this morning with major benchmarks trading lower apart from CN50 and HK50 which is trading higher (all eyes on China markets opening up tomorrow after the bank holiday).On the

The major centres in Australia, Sydney and Melbourne, along with some other areas, moved clocks forward one hour over the weekend to adjust for daylight saving time. If you are trading Australian markets you may need to adjust your trading times. Via the Reserve Bank of Australia website: This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan

A very light data agenda ahead for Monday, October 7, 2024. A couple of Asia time zone holidays to note: Mainland China remains on holiday today, markets reopen Tuesday, local timeit’s a partial holiday in Australia (Sydney is out) Note also, Australia switched to daylight saving time over the weekend, local clocks in the two

This week is light in terms of economic events, which is typical for the period following the release of the U.S. NFP report. Much of the market activity this week is expected to be influenced by geopolitical events such as the conflict in the Middle East. On Tuesday, Australia will release the minutes from its

NHC says NOAA Hurricane Hunters find Milton a major hurricane.NHC says Hurricane Milton about 750 mi (1210 km) west-southwest of Tampa Florida; maximum sustained winds 120 mph (195 km/h). This article was written by Arno V Venter at www.forexlive.com.

10-year treasury yields are back above 4% in early Monday trading. It’s been a bit of a perfect storm for bonds: Inflation expectations jolting higher alongside oil pricesBetter than expected US data pushing back against recession fears (this shouldn’t have been a fear but anyway)Big repricing in unrealistic expectations for aggressive cuts Even though all

Goldman Sachs upgraded its call on Chinese stocks to overweight, due to optimism over Beijing’s stimulus measures. Bloomberg (gated) with the report. In (very) brief: Chinese equities could rise another 15%-20% if authorities deliver on policy promises.Valuations are below historical averages, earnings could improve, and global investor interest remains low.Recent stimulus measures have bolstered confidence

Japan Finance Minister Kato: Stated that a weak yen has both merits and demerits.Said there is a need to monitor how excessive forex movements will affect corporate activities and households.Emphasized that action must be taken if necessary, while monitoring the impacts of forex movements on economic and household activities.Indicated that specific policy steps would be

Japan’s Finance Ministry’s Vice Finance Minister for International Affairs Atsushi Mimura. He is the official who will instruct the BOJ to intervene, when he judges it necessary. Often referred to as Japan’s ‘top currency diplomat’. will monitor FX moves including speculative movement This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

Business climate in German retail clouds over, Ifo says Full Story on PiQ Suite The business climate in the German retail sector clouded over in September, according to an Ifo survey published on Monday. “Consumers are unsettled about the economic policy environment. That means that no further dynamic growth in private consumer spending can be

The Newsquawk Europe Market Open: APAC stocks began on the front foot following last Friday’s gains on Wall Street; eyes remain on geopolitics LINK APAC stocks began the week on the front foot following last Friday’s gains on Wall St owing to the blockbuster jobs report.European equity futures are indicative of a positive cash open

Last week I posted a glowing assessment of the US economy from Mark Zandi, Chief Economist at Moody’s Analytics: US economy – “There is no denying it: among the best performing economies in 35+ years” In that post I warned: perhaps the FOMC should take the foot off the accelerator, or least lighten its touch

Full Story on PiQ Suite The Bank of Japan said on Monday price hikes were broadening, as many companies saw the need to keep raising wages due to structural labour shortages. In a quarterly report, the BOJ revised up its assessment for two of nine regional areas in Japan. It left the assessment for the

China’s gold reserves sat at 72.8 million fine troy ounces at the end of September, for a fifth straight month Data via the People’s Bank of China released on Monday. In USD terms 191.47bn in September vs. 182.98bn in August FX reserves 3.316tln USD vs. 3.288 tln end-August. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan

Melbourne Institute Inflation in September 2024 0.1% m/m prior -0.1% 2.6% y/y, almost to the mid point of the Reserve Bank of Australia 2 – 3% target band prior 2.5% Core (trimmed mean) 0.1% m/m prior 0% Official inflation data from Australia will be published on October 30 by the Australian Bureau of Statistics. This

Trump spoke on Sunday, said he would place up to 200% tariffs on vehicles imported from Mexico. The big 3 US auto makers all have plants building cars for the US market in Mexico. Trump had previously promised 100% tariffs on imported cars and trucks. But on Sunday ratcheted this up to 200%: “We’ll put

Japan finance minister Kato says there are pros and cons to the weak yenFederal Reserve speakers Monday include Bowman, Kashkari, Bostic and MusalemGoldman Sachs upgraded its call on Chinese stocks to overweightEuropean Central Bank speakers on Monday include chief economist Philip LaneChina gold reserves in September unchanged from August, 5th month in a rowAUD traders

Mon: Mainland China market holidayTue: RBA Minutes, EIA STEOWed: RBNZ Announcement, RBI Announcement, Bank of Israel Announcement, German Trade Balance (Aug), FOMC MinutesThu: ECB Minutes, Norwegian CPI (Sep), US CPI (Sep), French BudgetFri: BoC Business Outlook Survey & Canadian Survey of Consumer Expectations, Canadian Jobs Report (Sep), BoK Announcement, UK GDP (Aug), US PPI Final

Full Story on PiQ Suite BP drops oil output target in strategy reset BP has abandoned a target to cut oil and gas output by 2030 as CEO Murray Auchincloss scales back the firm’s energy transition strategy to regain investor confidence, three sources with knowledge of the matter said. BP is currently in talks to

Germany German Factory Orders (MoM) (Aug) Actual: -5.8% 🔴 Expected: -1.9% Previous: 2.9% This article was written by Ryan Paisey at www.forexlive.com.

0700 GMT / 0300 US Eastern time: Speech by ECB board member Piero Cipollone at Deutsche Bundesbank’s symposium “Future of payments: trends and innovations in Germany and Europe” 0735 GMT / 0345 US Eastern time: Keynote speech by ECB chief economist Philip R. Lane at ECB Conference on Monetary Policy: bridging science and practice 1345

European Central Bank Governing Council policymaker and French central bank governor François Villeroy de Galhau, in an interview with an Italian newspaper, La Repubblica. ECB will probably cut interest rates on October 17economic growth is weak, bringing the risk that inflation will undershoot its 2% target”In the last two years our main risk was to

The New Zealand Institute of Economic Research report on the views on their Reserve Bank of New Zealand “Shadow Board’. The NZIER Shadow Board remains split over the extent of the Reserve Bank of New Zealand’s (RBNZ) next move on the Official Cash Rate (OCR) ahead of the upcoming October Monetary Policy Review. Half of

It’s a packed agenda of Fed speakers this week. Getting us started Monday are: 1700/1300 Federal Reserve Board Governor Michelle Bowman participates in conversation before the Independent Bankers Association of Texas Annual Convention1750/1350 Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis President Neel Kashkari participates in a moderated question-and-answer session before the Bank Holding Company Association (BHCA) Fall

We’ve been following along with the political machinations in Japan that, net, are pushing back against BOJ rate hike plans. Reuters posted this piece late last week, ICYMI, and have updated it today. Worth a read for a summary of where the politics of rate hikes in Japan is at: Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo

Hong Kong’s Hang Seng benchmark index is up more than 2% on the session so far. Its hitting 31 month highs. the tech index is +3% There are expectations of more stimulus announcements tomorrow: Senior Chinese officials briefing Tuesday, steps to implement economic growth policies Mainland Chinese markets reopen after the week long holiday tomorrow,

Senior officials from China’s top economic planning body, the National Development and Reform Commission, will hold a press briefing on Tuesday regarding measures to implement policies aimed at boosting economic growth. The news comes via a notice from the State Council Information Office. five officials, including NDRC chair Zheng Shanjie will participate in the press

An early update for USD/JPY, which caught another substantial bid after the blockbuster US jobs report on Froday: Forexlive Americas FX news wrap: US jobs report is strong. USD, yields and stocks rise I had an outlook from Standard Chartered to post, analysts there were looking for 149 … and here we are. had expected

German newspaper Sueddeutsche Zeitung reported over the weekend on a dour forecast from German’s economy ministry, planning a downgrade to its 2024 economic growth forecast. The new forecast will be for negative 0.2% growth, i.e. a shrinking economy, for 2024 prior forecast was for +0.3%2023 recorded a 0.3% contraction For 2025, the forecast will be:

Via Iran’s state media, citing a spokesperson for Iran’s Civil Aviation Organisation. flights from all Iran’s airports will be cancelled until 6 a.m. local time (0230 GMT) on Monday from 9 p.m. on Sundayflights cancelled due to ‘operational restrictions’, no further detail was given Perhaps indicative of further missile launches to come? Whatever it is,

The data is linked from here: Forexlive Americas FX news wrap: US jobs report is strong. USD, yields and stocks rise The jobs report came in super-string, smashing above even the highest estimates: US non-farm payrolls data due imminently – the critical key ranges for estimates to watchWhat is the distribution of forecasts for the

Good morning, afternoon and evening all. Any charts, technical analysis, trade ideas, thoughts, views, ForexLive traders would like to share and discuss with fellow ForexLive traders, please do so: This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

As is usual for a Monday morning, market liquidity is very thin until it improves as more Asian centres come online … prices are liable to swing around, so take care out there. Indicative rates, not a lot changed from late Friday levels: EUR/USD 1.0970USD/JPY 148.77GBP/USD 1.3114USD/CHF 0.8589USD/CAD 1.3570AUD/USD 0.6789NZD/USD 0.6158 A couple of items

UPCOMING EVENTS: Monday: Eurozone Retail Sales. (China on holiday)Tuesday: Japan Average Cash Earnings, RBA Meeting Minutes, US NFIB Small Business Optimism Index.Wednesday: RBNZ Policy Decision, FOMC Meeting Minutes.Thursday: Japan PPI, ECB Meeting Minutes, US CPI, US Jobless Claims, New Zealand Manufacturing PMI.Friday: UK GDP, Canada Labour Market report, US PPI, US University of Michigan Consumer

Crude Oil Price Forecast: Navigating the Next Moves 🛢️📈 Hello traders and investors! This is Itai Levitan, an experienced market analyst at ForexLive.com, tracking crude oil for you today as well as what I am looking at. Let’s dive into the insights you need to make informed trading decisions. 🌊 Recent Rally Highlights 🚀 Strong

Mixed news out of Saudi Arabia, info comes via Bloomberg citing a pricing list they’ve seen: Saudi Aramco raised the official selling price of its key Arab Light crude to Asia by 90 cents, bringing it to a $2.20 per barrel premium over the regional benchmarkvs. expected 65 cents / bblcut the price of all

China began its week-long National Day holiday on Tuesday October 1. In the week leading up to the holiday beginning Chinese authorities announced an array of economic stimulus measures. SOme of the measures were aimed specifically at the property sector, such as: reductions in down-payment ratiosreductions in mortgage ratesan easing in property buying restrictions China’s

Wall Street Journal’s Nick Timiraos is out with a tweet saying: A very solid September payroll report probably takes a lot of the drama out of the November Fed meeting Likely leaves officials on course for a 25 basis point cut. Looking at the probability of a 25 basis point cut, that is now at

The Israeli Broadcasting Authority is Preparing to expand its operation in southern Lebanon, The Army will send to additional brigades to southern LebanonIsrael is still preparing to strike IranIt did not specify the place and time for that invasion.Will make a decision to respond to Orion independently without any relationship with third partiesIsraeli seeks to

The RBNZ will meet next week and expectations are a 50 basis point cut (they meet on Wednesday in NZ). The fall today and the price below a swing area between 0.6167 and 0.61796. That area will now be close resistance. On the downside the 100 day moving average comes in at 0.6121. The 50%

Geopolitics in the middle east: US military carries out strikes against multiple Houthi targets in Yemen From US Pres. Biden HE would think about alternatives to striking oil fieldsIsraelis have not concluded about what they are going to do about Iran’s strikeUS and Israeli teams are constantly in contactNot going to make a decision immediately,

As we head into the close, the EURUSD is trading near lows for the week. The strong US jobs data today helped to push the pair below a swing area between 1.1001 and 1.1014, and also the 50% midpoint of the move up from the August 1 low at 1.0995. That area will now be

US stocks moved higher despite yields moving higher as US jobs showed strength and the striking dockworkers reached a tentative agreement averting a prolonged closure of key port’s A snapshot of the closing levels shows: Dow industrial average rose 341.16 points or 0.81% at 42352.75 S&P index rose 51.13 points or 0.90% at 5751.07 NASDAQ

WSJs Timiraos: A solid September payroll takes a lot of November Fed meetingUS major indices close the day higher helped by strong jobsWhite House economic advisor Brainerd expects impact on employment from hurricane HeleneOil prices move lower after present Biden says he woul not support striking an oilfieldREUTERS: US military carries out strikes against multiple

Crude price have moved lower after Pres. Biden said that he would think about other alternatives to striking Iranian oil fields. The high price of oil reached $75.53. It is currently trading at $74.22. That’s still up around $0.50 on the day. Crude oil is now settling the day up $0.67 or 0.91% at $74.38.

As the week comes to a close, the USDJPY is trading near the highs for the day and the week. The move to the upside today off the unexpected US jobs report, was able to take the price above a key swing area ceiling around the 147.33 level and also above the 38.2% retracement of

White House economic advisor anticipates that the hurricane aniline impact will be felt in the employment statistics for that month, and continue to expect that in the US, will continue to see low gas prices. According to AAA: National average for a gallon of gas fell by three cents to $3.19 despite challenges like Hurricane

The USDCAD is higher after the shorter than expected US jobs report, but what are the technicals telling traders. In this video I take a look at the key levels in play and explain why. This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

China firmly opposes EU EV tariffs calls them unfair and WTO rule violationsChina urges EU to delay EV tariffs and avoid trade tensionsECB’s De Guindos says inflation to near 2% by 2025 but too early for victory lapsEU Moves Forward with Tariffs on Chinese EVs Following Member VoteObama to campaign for Harris in final month

A note from JPM US chief economist Michael Feroli, his take on Federal Reserve independence under a second Trump term. As well as existing features that can help insulate the Fed from political pressure, for example: firing Federal Reserve Chair Powell would be difficult JPM point to financial markets: “Another possible check on an attempted

It looks like Treasuries want to test 4%. Back-tracking a few weeks, the 3.6% level was a recession trade but with the US economy looking stronger now, it’s safer to price the bottom of Fed funds at 3% or 3.50%. Add in some term premium and 4% makes sense. I expect some strong bids if

The AUDUSD moved sharply lower in US trading today on the back of the stronger US jobs report. The move lower took the price below the 38.2% retracement of the move up from the September 11 low at 0.6819 and also the rising 100 bar moving average on the 4-hour chart at 0.6823. On the

The weekly Baker Hughes rig count shows: Oil rigs -5 at 479 Natural gas rigs +3 at 102 Total rigs -2 at 585 The price of crude oil is trading up $1.65 at $75.36. That is near session highs This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

I posted this info earlier, during the Asian timezone. But now its getting close to data time! Due at 8.30 am US Eastern time, which is 1230 GMT. You can see the consensus estimate in the screenshot below: The number in the right-most column is the ‘prior’ (previous month) result.The number in the column next

The US dollar has moved to the upside after the stronger-than-expected US jobs report. The unemployment rate dipped to 4.1%. The nonfarm payroll was much stronger than expected at 250 4K versus 140 K estimate. That’s a highest level since March when nonfarm payrolls rose by 310K and is the third highest for the year

Why it’s important? In the Asian session, Eamonn published the range of estimates for today’s US NFP report. These ranges are important in terms of market reaction because when the actual data deviates from the expectations, it creates a surprise effect. Another important input in market’s reaction is the distribution of forecasts. In fact, although

As the North American session, the JPY is the strongest and the NZD is the weakest. The US jobs report will be released at 8:30 AM ET. The rundown of the expectations shows. Non-Farm Payrolls (Sep): Forecast 140k, Previous 142kUnemployment Rate (Sep): Forecast 4.2%, Previous 3.8%Average Earnings MM (Sep): Forecast 0.3%, Previous 0.4%Average Earnings YY

I suspected this would be the case. We’ll hear from Goolsbee later. This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

Decent – and level-headed – read from Reuters on possible ways that Israel could strike back at Iran. Full Story on PiQ Suite GO AFTER IRAN’S MILITARY INSTALLATIONS Some analysts believe Israel is most likely to respond by targeting Iranian military installations, especially those that produce ballistic missiles like the ones used in Tuesday’s attacks.

EU governments face pivotal vote on Chinese EV tariffs Full Story on PiQ Suite European Union members face a pivotal vote on Friday on whether to impose tariffs of up to 45% on imports of Chinese-made electric vehicles in the bloc’s highest profile trade case, which risks retaliation from Beijing. The EU’s proposal can be

Given the momentum, I would expect all the Fed watchers to shift to 25 bps. This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

Japan chief cabinet secretary Hayashi: says PM Ishiba has instructed the compilation of a comprehensive economic packagea supplementary budget will be compiled after the lower house election Perhaps even more stimulus in Japan will feed into higher inflation and higher rates. I guess that’s the hope? Japan chief cabinet secretary Hayashi This article was written

Economic forecasting isn’t easy. At various points over the last two years it looked like the US was slowing down dramatically. At the start of 2023, a looming recession call was the consensus forecast. This year, as some economic indicators deteriorated, those calls returned. It was understandable — high interest rates hurt the economy. In

The US looks like it’s heading for a soft landing. The unemployment rate fell to 4.0510% compared to 4.220% previously and adds downside risks to the Fed’s year-end dot at 4.4%. It also reverses some recent upwards momentum. The rates market is now pricing in just a 9% chance of a 50 basis point cut

On the day: Stoxx 600 +0.7%Germany DAX +0.6%France CAC +0.9%UK FTSE 100 flatSpain Ibex +0.3%Italy FTSE MIB +1.3% On the week: Stoxx 600 -1.8%Germany DAX -2.2%France CAC -3.2%UK FTSE 100 -0.5%Spain IBEX -2.6%Italy’s FTSE MIB -2.2% The market wasn’t happy about talk of corporate tax increases in France and Italy. This article was written by

Times are listed GMT/US Eastern time: 0615/0215 Keynote speech by ECB board member Claudia Buch at 10th Anniversary International Financial Markets Conference organised by Lithuanian Central Bank 0700/0300 Bank of Spain governor Jose Luis Escriva and Bank of Portugal governor Mario Centeno to speak at an event 1000/0600 Remarks by ECB Vice President Luis de

EURUSD: The EURUSD moved down to test the low of what has been a 200 or so pip trading range during yesterday’s trading. MOve below 1.0995 (the 50% of the move up from August 1) and the swing area between 1.1001 to 1.1014 opens the door for more do USDJPY: Has a ceiling This article

The US jobs report has sent the USDCHF, finally outside of the up and down trading range that has mostly confined the pair between 0.8399 and 0.85368. The price was trading near 0.85166 ahead of the report, and has now surged up to 0.8607. At the high, the price has tested the 61.8% retracement of

The market is pricing in just a 6% chance of a cut. Pricing in Fed fund futures shows 25.9%. Is it too early for someone to make the ‘hold’ call? This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

We haven’t heard from NY Fed President John Williams since the FOMC decision but we will today. Unfortunately, he might not touch on the outlook for rates. He’s delivering opening remarks at a conference about “The Future of New York City: Focus on Jobs”. That’s the kind of topic that invites bland throw-away lines. We’ll

EU Moves Forward with Tariffs on Chinese EVs Following Member Vote Full Story on PiQ Suite The European Commission announced it has secured enough support to impose tariffs of up to 45% on imports of Chinese-made electric vehicles, marking a significant trade decision that could provoke retaliation from Beijing. The tariffs, aimed at countering what

EU countries do not vote clearly for or against tariffs on Chinese electric vehicles, leaving European Commission to decide – EU sources. This article was written by Arno V Venter at www.forexlive.com.

The major US stock indices are higher in early trading as buyers share the stronger US jobs report and hope that inflation remains contained. A snapshot of the market 11 minutes into the open is showing: Dow industrial average up 253.78 points or 0.66% at 42265.37.S&P index of 41.77 points or 0.73% at 5741.71NASDAQ index

The US jobs report came in much stronger than expected and that has sent the US dollar to the upside as the initial reaction. Yields are higher and the stock markets are higher as well. In this video, I take a look at three of the major currency pairs from a technical perspective. We know

Construction PMI 42.1 vs 41.4 prior. Key findings: Construction activity falls across all monitored countries and sectors. Employment and purchases scaled back further.Expectations regarding outlook remain severely downbeat. Comment: Commenting on the PMI data, Dr Tariq Kamal Chaudhry, Economist at Hamburg Commercial Bank, said: “The Eurozone’s construction sector shows no signs of easing. While the

Fundamental Overview Crude oil rallied strongly on Tuesday following the first news of an imminent missile attack from Iran against Israel. We had also the US ISM Manufacturing PMI release with the new orders index ticking higher in a potentially first sign of an improvement in demand. Yesterday, crude oil extended the gains as we

The end of the port strike is another piece of very good newsThe Fed does not want to react too much to one data pointIf we get more jobs reports like this, we will be more confident we are settling at full employmentStrong jobs report is likely to mean strong GDPWe are still a ways

Sweden to abstain in vote on EU tariffs on Chinese electric vehicles – Trade Minister.Sweden says has received positive signals from Commission about possibility for special deal for Volvo Cars in EV dispute – Trade Minister. This article was written by Arno V Venter at www.forexlive.com.

Goolsbee is now speaking on Yahoo Finance External shocks have derailed a soft landing many timesOur goal is to keep inflation, unemployment almost exactly where they are right nowWe will get a bunch more data before the next Fed meeting This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

ECB’s De Guindos: By end of 2025 ECB expects inflation and core inflation to hover around 2%, but too early to declare victory in fight against inflation.ECB’s De Guindos: Recent inflation data have been good, represented a positive surprise, but growth still reflects risks to the downside.ECB’s De Guindos: In general ECB is in favour

0900 US Eastern time (1300 GMT) Federal Reserve Bank of New York President John Williams gives opening remarks before conference, “The Future of New York City: Focus on Jobs” at the Federal Reserve Bank of New York Williams speakls just after the payrolls data: Goldman Sachs preview US nonfarm payroll data Friday, October 4: +165K

Sector Overview Today’s market heatmap reveals that the technology sector is leading the charge with notable gains. Among the top performers is Broadcom (AVGO) with a significant rise of 2.33%, supported by gains in Nvidia (NVDA) up 1.59%, and AMD (AMD) with an increase of 2.56%. This performance underscores a bullish sentiment within semiconductors, buoyed

We express deep concern over the deteriorating situation in the Middle EastWe condemn in the strongest terms Iran’s direct military attack against Israel, which constitutes a serious threat to regional stabilityWe call on all regional players in the Middle East to act responsiblyWe reiterate our call for an immediate ceasefire in Gaza and unconditional release

Mainland China remains on holiday, markets there reopen on Tuesday October 8. Hong Kong is, of course, open. The Hang Seng index had a retracement fall yesterday. On the data agenda, Australian housing finance is about it. This is unlikely to move AUD too much upon release. This snapshot from the ForexLive economic data calendar,

The September employment report is due from the US on Friday 4 October 2024 at 0830 US Eastern time, 1230 GMT. Adam had a preview posted earlier: September non-farm payrolls preview by the numbers: Beware the seasonal pattern And, GS: Goldman Sachs preview US nonfarm payroll data Friday, October 4: +165K /jobless rate 4.2% You

Spain Spanish Industrial Production (YoY) (Aug) Actual: -0.1% 🔴 Expected: 0.1% Previous: -0.4% This article was written by Ryan Paisey at www.forexlive.com.

Two-month net revision: +72K vs -86K priorUnemployment rate: 4.1% vs 4.2% priorUnrounded unemployment rate: 4.0510% vs 4.220% priorParticipation rate: 62.7% vs 62.7% priorPrivate payrolls +223K vs 118K priorPrior private payrolls +118K revised to +114KU6 underemployment rate: 7.7% vs 7.9% priorAverage hourly earnings: +0.4% vs +0.3% m/m expectedPrior avg hourly earnings: +0.4% (revised to +0.5%)Average hourly

Inflation is controlled.Inflation today is very close to 2%. These are token remarks. The market has already fully priced in a 25 bps cut in October, so there’s nothing new the ECB members can say. It’s now about the data. This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at www.forexlive.com.

Introduction Blockchain technology has transformed various sectors, from finance to healthcare, by introducing decentralized, transparent, and secure systems. First popularized by Bitcoin, blockchain is now the backbone of numerous applications across industries. Blockchain’s decentralized ledger technology (DLT) enables secure and tamper-proof transactions, making it a game-changer in terms of security and data integrity. This article

Bank of England’s Pill: Current wage and services price inflation are a source of continued concern. This links up with earlier comments from Pill here. This article was written by Arno V Venter at www.forexlive.com.

Chinese Chamber of Commerce in EU releases statement after EU vote on tariffs on China-made electric vehicles.Chinese Chamber of Commerce in EU: Urges EU to act prudently, delay implementation of tariffs, avoid escalation of trade frictions.Chinese Chamber of Commerce in EU: Expresses strong dissatisfaction with EU for promoting ‘trade protectionism’ measures. This article was written

Chinese Commerce Ministry releases statement after EU vote on tariffs on China-made electric vehicles.Chinese Commerce Ministry, after EU vote on EV tariffs: China firmly opposes EU’s ‘unfair’, ‘non-compliant’, ‘unreasonable’ protectionist practices.Chinese Commerce Ministry, after EU vote on EV tariffs: ‘Protectionist practices’ of EU seriously violate rules of WTO.Chinese Commerce Ministry, after EU vote on EV

The Morning Blast @PiQSuite and @MrMBrown Join Michael and Ryan for an explosive daily market preview. Friday 4th Oct. 08:30 BST / 09:30 CET / 03:30 EST Set Reminder Here 15 minutes to kickstart your trading day This article was written by Ryan Paisey at www.forexlive.com.

Justin is off for a few days. I’ll be posting these for another couple of days before regular (and much better 😉 ) service resumes! EUR/USD: 1.1000 (EUR2.09b), 1.1100 (EUR1.07b) USD/JPY: 148.00 (US$958m), 146.25 (US$879m) USD/CAD: 1.3350 (US$1.68b), 1.3500 (US$993m), 1.3600 (US$657m) AUD/USD: 0.6850 (AUD813m), 0.6700 (AUD418m), 0.6650 (AUD300m) For more information on how to

US official believe Israel’s retaliation will be measured enough to avoid triggering new rounds of escalationOne official said Israel wants to send a strong signal to Iran while hoping to put a lid on the conflictNo final decisions had been made by IsraelWashington did not expect to participate in strikesThere is growing concern among US

Switzerland Unemployment Rate n.s.a. (Sep) Actual: 2.5% 🟢 Expected: 2.4% Previous: 2.4% (s.a.) Actual: 2.6% Expected: 2.6% Previous: 2.5% This article was written by Ryan Paisey at www.forexlive.com.

Goldman Sachs raises its year-end Turkey inflation forecast to 44% from 40% after September CPI data.Goldman Sachs says now expects first Turkey rate cut in January, from November previously. This article was written by Arno V Venter at www.forexlive.com.

French Industrial Production (MoM) (Aug) Actual: 1.4% Expected: 0.3% Previous: 0.2% This article was written by Ryan Paisey at www.forexlive.com.

Construction PMI 41.7 vs 38.9 prior. Key findings: Further sharp, albeit slower, fall in total industry activity. Rate of job shedding quickens. Input costs continue to fall. Comment: Commenting on the PMI data, Dr. Cyrus de la Rubia, Chief Economist at Hamburg Commercial Bank, said: “The construction sector is starting to show some faint signs

Standard Chartered say that gold is a hedge against geopolitical risk, whereas Bitcoin is is a hedge against TradFi issues such as bank collapses or de-dollarisation/U.S. Treasury issues. Analysts at the bank like buying BTC/USD on a dip under USD60K This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

Bank of England’s Pill: I do not think the level of interest rates is having more than a marginal impact on UK business investment. This follows on from earlier comments from Pill here and here. This article was written by Arno V Venter at www.forexlive.com.

The leadership of Israel is being pushed and pulled in both directions. As the FT report highlighted, the US might not feel it has control of Netanyahu. For what it’s worth, former Trump advisor and uberhawk John Bolton is out saying he thinks Israel will hit hard: Israel is not going to heed the Biden

Construction PMI 57.2 vs 53.3 expected and 53.6 prior. Key findings: Output growth led by steepest rise in civil engineering activity since June 2021.New orders grow at strongest pace for two-and-a- half years.Cost pressures intensify in September. Comment: Tim Moore, Economics Director at S&P Global Market Intelligence, said: “UK construction companies indicated a decisive improvement

Iran leader Khamenei says Muslim nations have a common enemy.Iran leader Khamenei says Muslim nations have to strap the belt of defense from Afghanistan to Yemen, from Iran to Gaza and Lebanon.Iran leader Khamenei says every country has the right to defend itself from aggressors.Iran leader Khamenei says Oct. 7 attack was a legitimate act,

The UK’s Society of Motor Manufacturers and Traders (SMMT) has warned targets will be missed on 2024 EV sales: called on the new Labour government to introduce incentives for private buyers to speed up the switch to EVs calls to halve the tax on new EV purchase for three years for private customers and reduce

A note from Commerzbank on what is expected from the European Central Bank on October 17. TLDR is a 25bp rate cut. The analysts argue that the primary driver behind the European Central Bank’s (ECB) current stance is the collapse of eurozone inflation expectations. Market participants recognize that this gives the ECB a solid rationale

Fundamental Overview The JPY lost some more ground this week following Japan’s PM Ishiba’s comments on Wednesday as he delivered dovish remarks. As a reminder, the JPY got a boost last week when he was elected because he was viewed as a hawk and supportive for further rate hikes. It turned out that he’s the

Earlier: Japan chief cabinet secretary Hayashi – PM Ishiba wants a comprehensive economic packageJapan finance minister Kato wants to boost support for low-income households Japan’s economy minister Akazawa now, says aims to overcome deflation under Ishiba’s leadership says he is carefully considering gas subsidies situationno change in interpretation of govmt – BOJ accord taregetting 2%

NHC says Kirk remains a large and powerful major hurricane, large swells from Kirk could reach the U.S. East Coast by Sunday.NHC says Hurricane Kirk about 1655 mi (2665 km) southwest of the Azores; maximum sustained winds 145 mph (230 km/h). This article was written by Arno V Venter at www.forexlive.com.

U.S., South Korea tentatively reach deal on defense cost sharing plan – Yonhap.United States and Republic of Korea have reached consensus on proposed text of a new five-year Special Measures Agreement. This article was written by Arno V Venter at www.forexlive.com.

Markets trade fairly stable on the risk sentiment side so far today. Usually in the run up to big events like today’s NFP it’s not uncommon to see markets trading more choppy or rangebound or muted. Also, there could be a bunch of different types of flows ranging from profit taking, pre-positioning and hedging flows

Dock workers have agreed to suspend strike activity to January 15 There are conflicting reports but it is clear that workers have returned to their jobs. AP reports that the union representing 45,000 striking U.S. dockworkers at East and Gulf coast ports has reached a deal to suspend their strike until January 15 to provide

Home loans data from Australia more to come This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

Gold has been consolidating in up and down trading this week. The high price was reached on Tuesday at $2673.14. That was just above the all-time high close was reached last Thursday at $2672.03. The low price this week was reached on Monday at $2624.82. The current prices trading at $2657.96. Looking at the hourly

Obama to campaign for Harris in month leading up to election – Washington Post. This article was written by Arno V Venter at www.forexlive.com.

A TV documentary maker has said he has found Satoshi Nakamoto’s identity, which is the fake name used by the creator of Bitcoin. The name will be revealed in a new HBO documentary, set to air Wednesday October 9 at 9 p.m. US Eastern time Politico with the heads up, adding: Intriguingly, as the date

Japan PM Ishiba on the wires Japanese PM Ishiba says beating deflation is the top economic priority and we will seek economic growth as the basis of fiscal healthWill compile economic package as soon as possible to help cushion blow to households from rising costs.Says will seek ties with like-minded nations to supplement US alliance

Full Story on PiQ Suite Japanese Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba formally instructed his ministers on Friday to compile a fresh economic package to cushion the blow to households from rising living costs, as the new government makes its top priority an exit from deflation. “We would need to support people suffering from rising costs right

The @Newsquawk Europe Market Open: APAC stocks Mixed Ahead of US NFP, US Dock Workers End Strike APAC stocks traded mixed amid light pertinent catalysts for the region ahead of the latest US NFP report.US dock workers have agreed a deal to end their current strike action.European equity futures are indicative of a marginally positive

Bank of England’s Pill says ample reason for caution in assessing the dissipation of inflation persistence.Bank of England’s Pill says need for such caution points to a gradual withdrawal of monetary policy restriction.BOE’s Pill says further cuts in bank rate remain in prospect but it will be important to guard against the risk of cutting

The major indices are closing lower on the day with the Dow and the Russell 2000 doing the worst ahead of the US jobs report tomorrow. The final numbers are showing: Dow industrial average -184.73 points or -0.44% at 42011.59S&P index -9.60 points or -0.17% and 5699.94NASDAQ index -6.65 points or -0.04% and 17918.48 The

While the USDCHF pushes the topside of the “Red Box” today that has confined the pair going back to August 20, the EURCHF is mired within its own confined range. Apart for a time period between April 10 and April 11, the price of the EURCHF has been confined to a range between 0.9332 and

The European session today is pretty empty on the data front with just a couple of low tier releases. The main event will be the US NFP report in the American session. We will also hear from Fed’s Williams after the US jobs report, so that’s going to be interesting. 12:30 GMT/08:30 ET – US

JPMorgan analysts see gold and Bitcoin as beneficiaries of uncertainty in regular financial markets, citing rising geopolitical tensions, and the upcoming U.S. election. JPMorgan say gold and BTC will benefit from this “debasement trade”. On gold, JPM says the price move has already “gone well beyond the moves implied by dollar and real bond yield

My earlier post is here, while the news was not overly clear – trying to get the info out quick: US dock workers agree to return to work – postpone strike action Adding in some more detail now via various news outlets dock workers and port operators have reached a tentative deal ending a three-day

US non-farm payrolls data – the critical key ranges for estimates to watchJP Morgan favour gold and Bitcoin – the “debasement” tradeHeads up for ECB speakers on Friday – Buch, Escriva, Centeno, de GuindosStandard Chartered says Bitcoin not a safe haven against geopolitical risk – gold isBank of England Chief Economist Huw Pill to speak

Earlier: Japan chief cabinet secretary Hayashi – PM Ishiba wants a comprehensive economic package Japan’s new finance minister is given a heads up outline on some of the measures that’ll be included: focus on price reliefmeasures to boost economic growthassistance for low income households JPY is catching a bit of a bid on this, the

All the previews I have been posting of the upcoming Reserve Bank of New Zealand meeting, on October 9, are exp[ecting a 50bp rate cut: RBNZ preview – most likely cut the cash rate by 50bps next week, and again in NovemberANZ say the path of least resistance for the RBNZ is a 50bp interest

Wall Street Journal with the update, citing “people familiar with the matter”. In brief: U.S. port employers are preparing an almost 62% pay increase to get striking dockworkers back to workoffer is an increase from an earlier proposed raise of 50%offer would raise the base hourly rate for ILA port workers from $39 to $63

Goldman Sachs are estimating that headline nonfarm payrolls rose 165k in September. From the note, in brief: On net, Big Data indicators indicate a pace of job creation above the recent payrolls trend. We assume above-trend (albeit moderating) contributions from the recent surge in immigration and catch-up hiring. We suspect August payroll growth will be

This info comes via eFX. **** Synopsis: CIBC projects the Australian dollar (AUD) to strengthen against the US dollar (USD) and face limited upside against the New Zealand dollar (NZD) in the fourth quarter. This outlook is influenced by the Reserve Bank of Australia’s (RBA) shift to a more neutral stance, stronger AUD performance due

Good morning, afternoon and evening all. Any charts, technical analysis, trade ideas, thoughts, views, ForexLive traders would like to share and discuss with fellow ForexLive traders, please do so: This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

More on the big reveal is here: Bitcoin creator Satoshi Nakamoto has been identified – will be revealed in a TV show! Checking out BTC/USD, not a lot changed: This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

0755 GMT / 0355 US Eastern time: Bank of England Chief Economist Huw Pill speech at the annual conference of the Institute of Chartered Accountants of England and Wales Topic will be of interest to traders: What’s next for the UK economy? This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

US September ISM services 54.9 vs 51.7 expectedUS factory orders for August -0.2% versus 0.0% expectedUS September final S&P Global Services PMI 55.2 vs 55.4 prelimCanada S&P Global services PMI falls to six-month low, employment dropsG7 statement: We unequivocally reiterate our commitment to security of IsraelIsraeli media & Sky New Arabia is repeating that an

The price of crude oil futures are settling at $73.71. That is up $3.61 or 5.15%. The high price reached $73.92. The low price today reached $70.56. Looking at the daily chart above, the price is trading at the highest level since September 3, and above the 38.2% retracement of the move down from the

The EURUSD has been trending to the downside this wee. Recall from Monday trade, the high price extended above Friday’s high but not Wednesday’s high. It did move above the double top going back to August 23 and August 26 (see red numbered circles and topside yellow area). Since then the price has been stepping

Consensus estimate +140K Estimate range +70K (Citi) to +220K (Jeffries)August was +142K Private consensus +125K versus +118K priorUnemployment rate consensus estimate 4.2% versus 4.2% priorPrior participation rate 62.7%Prior underemployment U6 7.9% Avg hourly earnings y/y exp +3.8% versus +3.8% priorAvg hourly earnings m/m exp +0.3% versus +0.4% priorAvg weekly hours exp 34.3 versus 34.3 prior

Some analysis by my dear friend, ForexLive contributor and all-round gent, Arno Venter… GBP post-Bailey’s comments LINK – Bank of England Governor talks “bit more aggressive” interest rate cuts BoE comments from today playing catch up with the overall trend in economic data surprises over the past few weeks? Sizeable reaction in Sterling compared to

Prior week 218K (revised to 219K)I4- week moving average initial jobless 224.5K vs 224.75KContinuing claims 1.826M vs 1.832M expected. Prior continuing claims 1.834M (revised to 1.827M)4-week moving average continuing claims 1.829M versus 1.836M last week. This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

This is an odd thing to say because Israel isn’t likely to pre-announce an attack like Iran did. But I think you have to take him at his word because Israel now going and attacking today would make Biden look foolish. Oil is up $1.92 to $72.03 today as the market worries that Israel will

Final Services PMI 52.4 vs. 52.8 expected and 53.7 prior.Final Composite PMI 52.6 vs. 52.9 expected and 53.8 prior. Key findings: Business activity growth eases to three-month low in September. Robust order books underpin positive business expectations for the year ahead. Prices charged inflation slows for third month in a row. Comment: Tim Moore, Economics

Eyes are on the US jobs market as the Fed tries to keep unemployment from rising above 4.4%. Some highlights of the Challenger report: September job cuts up 53% y/y, but down slightly from AugustLayoffs 69% above pre-COVID average in September, improving from 81% in AugustRegional shifts: West cools, East surges in job cutsTech sector

Dockworkers strike was predicted, retailers have been stockpilingRetailers have about two weeks of extra inventory, there will be an effect afterwardsDockworkers strike could have supply-chain effects, that could mean some increase in pricesWe’ve largely gotten inflation downThe new inflation numbers are at the Fed’s target, the labor market is at full employment25 vs 50 bps

In this video, I take a look at 2 of the commodity pairs from the Asia-Pacific area. Both the NZDUSD and the AUDUSD are trading lower today breaking support targets on the way, but each is also reaching support targets and finding some buyers against the levels. What next for each? NZDUSD: The downside in

The preliminary readings for September are here: Australia preliminary Sept PMI: Manufacturing 46.7 (prior 48.5) Services 50.6 (prior 52.5) Finals are, services 50.5 composite 49.6 In brief from the report: Final September PMI confirms sluggish economic growth, similar to Flash release.Services sector continues expanding, increasing staffing, but at a slower pace than early 2024.Business cost

Final Services PMI 50.6 vs. 50.6 expected and 51.2 prior.Final Composite PMI 47.5 vs. 47.2 expected and 48.4 prior. Key findings: HCOB Germany Services PMI Business Activity Index at 50.6 (Aug: 51.2). 6-month low. HCOB Germany Composite PMI Output Index at 47.5 (Aug: 48.4). 7-month low. Growth expectations slump to lowest in a year. Comment:

Reuters is out with its latest secondary sources survey of OPEC oil output and it has production down 290k barrels per day in the month to 26.14 mbpd. Libyan output was down 300k bpd with the remainder of the bloc producing an additional 10k bpd. The survey also found that Iraq was still pumping 90k

Services 53.1 (prior was 53.7) Composite 52.0 (prior 52.9) Preliminary is here: Japan Jibun preliminary Sep PMIs: Manufacturing 49.6 (prior 49.8) Services 53.9 (53.7) The key points from the report: Business activity and new order growth sustained Outstanding business rises for second time in three months Confidence remains strong but eases to 20-month low In

Business activity index 59.9 vs 53.3 priorEmployment 48.1 vs 50.2 prior (lowest since June)New orders 59.4 vs 53.0 prior (highest since Feb 2023)Prices paid 59.4 vs 57.3 prior (highest since Jan)Supplier deliveries 52.1 vs 49.6 priorInventories 58.1 vs 52.9 priorBacklog of orders 48.3 vs 43.7 priorNew export orders 56.7 vs 50.9 priorImports 52.7 vs 50.3

US major indices close marginally higherGoldman Sachs: Be careful with USD shorts, EUR/USD could head to 1.0950Barkin Q&A: ‘Last mile’ of inflation may still take longer than expectedUS crude oil futures settles at $70.10Ray Dalio: China policy makers need to do a lot more than what was announcedOPEC calls out the Wall Street JournalECB’s De

Prior was 55.7 (best in two years)Prelim was 55.4Composite vs 54.4 prelim This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

The US did not urge Israel to not retaliate like they did no April. but the US did say that they did not condone a strike of Iranian nuclear facilities as a caveat. Meanwhile Isreal is continuing their assault in Beirut, Lebanon and targetting Hezbollah strongholds and leadership. The Pentagon is saying that Israeli preparations

In an exclusive interview with the Guardian – Bailey held out the prospect of the Bank becoming a “bit more aggressive” in cutting interest rates provided the news on inflation continued to be good. Full Story He also hit back at claims by the former prime minister Liz Truss that the Bank of England was

The price of crude oil has moved higher today and is breaking above a double top on the hourly chart as well as the 50% midpoint of the move down from the August 13 high. Those levels come in at $72.36 and $72.67 respectively. The break higher took the price up toward the $74 level

MUFG has revised its outlook for the Bank of England (BoE), now expecting back-to-back rate cuts before year-end. This adjustment reflects growing evidence of decelerating economic growth in the UK. Key Points: Recent sentiment indicators, including the GfK consumer confidence index, PMIs, CBI Orders index, and the Lloyds Business Barometer, are showing a downward trend,

Italy to ask companies, including defense companies to contribute to budgetSays will require sacrifice from all Italy is trying to tax its way to prosperity. We’ll wait for details but that’s not a good sign for Italian stocks. This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

An ICYMI from Axios: Israeli officials staring down all-out regional war tell Axios Israel will launch a “significant retaliation” to Tuesday’s massive missile attack within days that could target oil production facilities inside Iran and other strategic sites. Here is the link for more. We had the heads up on all this way back earlier

As the US session gets started the EURUSD and USDJPY are consolidating the recent moves (lower for the EURUSD and higher for the USDJPY). The GBPUSD is sharply lower after BOE’s Bailey signalled the central bank may be more aggressive with easing. In the kickstart video, I take a look at each of those currency

If you have been reading or watching my videos, I have been harping on the up-and-down trading range in the USDCHF with 0.83996 as the floor and 0.85368 as the ceiling. Today, the price moved higher after weaker CPI data in Switzerland. The price high reached up to your .85371 just above the upside target

Japan’s Finance Minister Kato has been on the wires.. Specifics Of Monetary Policy Should Be Left To BoJ Ishiba’s Comments Are Based On BoJ’s Explanation Important That FX Moves In Stable Manner, Reflecting Fundamentals Watching Currency Moves With Sense Of UrgencyWill Communicate Thoroughly With Markets via LiveSquawk This article was written by Ryan Paisey at

The President said the the US is discussing Israel striking Iran oil facilities, according to Bloomberg. There is some important nuance in this statement: Biden was asked if he would support the US supporting Israel striking Iran’s oil facilities. Biden responded: We are discussing that. So it sounds to me like they are discussing whether

Headlines via the terminal LIBYA TO RESUME OIL PRODUCTION TODAY SAYS OIL MINISTER LIBYA’S LARGEST OIL FIELD TO TO RESUME OUTPUT THURSDAY Kneejerk lower in crude.As always with Libya info – it’s rarely straightforward, and rarely stays that way for long. This article was written by Ryan Paisey at www.forexlive.com.

Prior month: 5.0%Factory orders -0.2% versus 0.0% expectedFactory goods orders ex transportation -0.1% versus +0.4% preliminary. Last month +0.3%Durable Goods orders 0.0% vs 0.0% preliminary. Last month was 9.9%. Durable goods have been up six of the last seven monthsDurable Goods ex transportation 0.5% vs 0.5% preliminary. Last month -0.1%Durable Good ex defense -0.2% versus

S&P 500 futures are down 17 points shortly before today’s open. One stock in focus is Nvidia, which is up 1.8% pre-market. Late yesterday, CEO Jensen Huang said on CNBC that demand for its next-generation Blackwell chips is “insane”. “Everybody wants to be first and everybody wants to have the most,” he said. The company

A report suggested that Italy will bring in a corporate windfall tax, though it’s not yet clear how targeted it will be. Closing changes on the day: Stoxx 600 -1.0%German DAX -0.9%Francis CAC -1.4%UK’s FTSE 100 -0.2%Spain’s IBEX flatItaly’s FTSE MIB -1.5% This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

Turkish CPI inflation declines to 49.4% y/y in September Full Story via EmergingMarketWatch PiQ Suite Prices rise by 3% m/m, showing underlying pressuresEducation costs surge due to a spike in tertiary feesHousing costs climb, driven by 7.6% increase in rentsading base effects challenge CBT reaching the inflation target This article was written by Ryan Paisey

The Canadian dollar is forecast to extend its recovery against its U.S. counterpart in the coming year as lower borrowing costs bolster economic growth in Canada and increase investor appetite for risk, a Reuters poll found. Full Story on PiQ Suite Canada’s loonie has rallied by 3.3% since hitting a near two-year low of 1.3946

Long positions pile on Chinese yuan, Asian FX bulls maintain momentum: Reuters poll Full Story Bullish bets on the Chinese yuan strengthened after a bazooka of stimulus measures led to global investors reallocating funds to Asia’s largest economy, while long positions in most other emerging Asian currencies were largely steady, a Reuters poll showed on

Rate cuts by year-end Fed: 69 bps (65% probability of 25 bps rate cut at the upcoming meeting) 2025: 182 bps ECB: 53 bps (97% probability of 25 bps rate cut at the upcoming meeting) 2025: 171 bps BoE: 42 bps (98% probability of 25 bps rate cut at the upcoming meeting) 2025: 155 bps

Mixed signals: Tech edges up while consumer sectors falter The US stock market is sending mixed signals today, with technology stocks finding some traction while consumer sectors face headwinds. Investors navigate a challenging landscape as varied performances emerge across different sectors. 📊 Sector Overview: Technology Gains While Consumer Confidence Dips 🏆 Technology: The technology sector

This is an interesting read from an extended Reuters report on Bank of Japan Governor Ueda’s home town, Makinohara, struggling with economic disparities, depopulation, rising interest rates, wage increases … and being at risk from vanishing. In Makinohara, the conundrum the BOJ faces in setting policy for a two-speed economy is clear, according to Reuters

The major US stock indices are trading lower at the start of the trading day. Just ahead of the PMI nonmanufacturing data, the: Dow industrial average is down -254.84 points or -0.60% at 41941.68S&P index -13.29 points or -0.23% at 5696.25.NASDAQ index -7.63 points or -0.04% at 17917.49. The Russell 2000 is down -12.54 points

We got the ball rolling on this during Asia yesterday with the new economy minister pressing the dove button: ForexLive Asia-Pacific FX news wrap: Yen loses support from new Japanese economy minister The BOJ and Prime Minister Ishida himself jumped in later: Forexlive European FX news wrap 2 Oct USD/JPY rocketed higher: Wednesday marked one

Snippets from Barclays, in summary: Shorter term we worry the ECB will need to cut more than expected to stabilise the economyseeing only slow growth in the European Union And, not just the ECB that’ll keep cutting, Barclays is bullish US equities despite stocks being near record highs: path of least resistance remains to trade

Tesla to recall over 27,000 Cybertruck vehicles, NHTSA says Full Story on PiQ Suite Tesla is recalling 27,185 Cybertruck vehicles in the U.S. as a delayed rear view image reduces visibility behind the vehicle, the U.S. National Highway Traffic Safety Administration said on Thursday. This article was written by Ryan Paisey at www.forexlive.com.

THE CATALYST This early morning, in an exclusive interview with The Guardian, BoE’s Governor Bailey said that the central bank could become “a bit more aggressive” in cutting interest rates provided the news on inflation continued to be good. That was the catalyst for GBP weakness across the board. The market’s pricing didn’t change much

As the North American session begins the USD is the strongest and the GBP is the weakest. In an interview with the Guardian, BOE Bailey held out the prospect of the Bank becoming a “bit more aggressive” in cutting interest rates provided the news on inflation continued to be good. Bailey also talked to the

Fed Speak Primer: Schmid, Bostic and Kashkari scheduled Full Primer via Newssquawk SCHEDULE (BST / EDT) 15:00 / 10:00: Fed’s Schmid (2025 Voter, Neutral) to give opening remarks at a conference 15:40 / 10:40: Fed’s Bostic (2024 Voter, Hawk) and Kashkari (2026 Voter, Hawkish) to speak on “Featuring Frontier Research to Enhance Economic Opportunity and

Services PMI drops to 46.4 from 47.8, signaling accelerating contractionNew business falls at fastest clip since December 2020Employment declines sharply, most since July 2020Inflation pressures ease, but remain elevatedFirms pin hopes on future rate cuts to boost growth Paul Smith, Economics Director at S&P Global Market Intelligence, said: “Canada’s service sector endured a challenging month

Challenger layoffs 72.821K vs 75.891K prior. U.S.-based employers announced 72,821 cuts in September, a 4% decrease from the 75,891 cuts announced one month prior. It is up 53% from the 47,457 cuts announced in the same month in 2023, according to a report released Thursday from global outplacement and business and executive coaching firm Challenger,

BoE Monthly Decision Maker Panel data – September 2024 via Newsquawk Expectations for CPI inflation a year ahead declined by 0.1 percentage point to 2.6% in the three months to September. The corresponding measure for three-year ahead CPI inflation expectations was also 2.6% in the three months to September, and 0.1 percentage points lower than

The AUDUSD moved above a ceiling from June and July 2023 near 0.6900 last week on it’s way to a high near 0.6941. After trying to hold support near the 0.6900 level on Friday, Monday and part of Tuesday, the sellers started to exert more downside momentum falling to a low of 0.68557 in the

Goldman Sachs now sees the SNB delivering more easing following today’s lower than expected inflation data Full Story via Newsquawk on PiQ Suite GS writes given the SNB’s dovish guidance at its September meeting, benign inflation developments, a rise in geopolitical tensions adding further upward pressure to the currency, and Chairman Schlegel’s recent comments emphasizing

Services PMI 57.0 vs 54.0 expected and 54.6 priorComposite PMI 56.3 vs 53.5 prior. Key findings: Uplifts in new business and activity growth signalled. Employment levels raised markedly. Cost inflation down to three-and-a-half year low. Comment: Commenting on the PMI data, Jonas Feldhusen, Junior Economist at Hamburg Commercial Bank, said: “The summer is coming to

The @Newsquawk Fed Speak Primer: Schmid, Bostic and Kashkari scheduledLibya set to restart production from largest oil fieldUS September Challenger layoffs 72.821K vs 75.891K priorCanadian dollar expected to strengthen in 2025 as rate cuts boost economyGoldman Sachs now sees the SNB delivering more easingTesla to recall over 27,000 Cybertruck vehiclesWhy GBP/USD sold off so much

Switzerland CPI (MoM) (Sep) Actual: -0.3% 🔴 Expected: -0.1% Previous: 0.0% (YoY) Actual: 0.8% 🔴 Expected: 1.1% Previous: 1.1% This article was written by Ryan Paisey at www.forexlive.com.

Eurozone PPI M/M 0.6% vs 0.3% expected and 0.8% prior (revised to 0.7%)Eurozone PPI Y/Y -2.3% vs -2.4% expected and -2.1% prior (revised to -2.2%) This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at www.forexlive.com.

Justin is off for a few days. Apparently he is in Tokyo. Like I said yesterday, I am not jealous. Nope. 🙁 USD/JPY: 145.00 (US$2.12b), 150.00 (US$1.4b), 144.35 (US$1.2b) EUR/USD: 1.1100 (EUR2.54b), 1.0550 (EUR1.94b), 1.1060 (EUR1.61b) AUD/USD: 0.6650 (AUD1.11b), 0.6785 (AUD808.9m) USD/CAD: 1.3550 (US$972.6m), 1.3555 (US$359m), 1.3500 (US$330.7m) NZD/USD: 0.6310 (NZD1.4b) GBP/USD: 1.3130 (GBP449.8m), 1.2830

Services PMI 50.5 vs. 51.0 expected and 51.4 prior.Composite PMI 49.7 vs. 50.8 prior. Key findings: Services activity rises marginally and at slowest pace seen in 2024 so far. New business volumes down for second month in a row. Jobs growth sustained. Comment: Commenting on the final PMI data, Jonas Feldhusen, Junior Economist at Hamburg

Deutsche Bank with a note arguing that September marked a significant shift in the global rate-cutting cycle, highlighting the importance of the Federal Reserve’s first rate cut. With the Federal Reserve now joining the trend, it was expected that other countries would follow suit, reflecting the influence of U.S. monetary policy. DB go on to

Goldman Sachs notes a notable shift in market sentiment regarding widespread short positions in the USD, suggesting caution over how much further USD weakness can persist. Key Points: There is growing caution about the extent of USD weakness driven solely by a reevaluation of Fed and US exceptionalism.The market is currently heavily short on USDs,

The price of crude oil futures are settling at $70.10. That is up $0.27 or 0.39%. The high price today reached $72.45. The low price was at $69.90 Technically, looking at the hourly chart, the high price tested the high price going back to September 24 and rotated back to the downside. That is now

Services PMI 51.4 vs 50.5 expected and 52.9 prior. Composite PMI 49.6 vs 48.9 expected and 51.0 prior. Key findings: HCOB Eurozone Composite PMI Output Index at 49.6 (Aug: 51.0). 7-month low. HCOB Eurozone Services PMI Business Activity Index at 51.4 (Aug: 52.9). 7-month low. First month since December 2023 that contraction is seen in

Bank of Japan monetary policy board member Noguchi BOJ board member Noguchi said they must patiently maintain loose monetary conditions.BOJ’s Noguchi stated it will take considerable time for the public to shift to a mindset where inflation can sustainably reach 2%.Noguchi personally believes that the uptrend in consumption is likely to become clearer.Cost pressure from

The Newsquawk Europe Market Open: APAC stocks traded mixed, BoE Bailey’s comments move cable lower Full Note APAC stocks traded mixed amid the backdrop of several holiday closures and ongoing geopolitical tensions, while Hong Kong participants booked profits.Fed’s Barkin (2024 voter) said he sees two 25bps cuts this year as “a reasonable path” if the

Services PMI 49.6 vs 48.3 expected and 55.0 prior.Composite PMI 48.6 vs 47.4 expected and 53.1 prior. Key findings: French services economy ends third quarter with marginal contraction. New orders fall slightly and firms make strong dent to backlogs of work. Input cost inflation sinks to 42-month low; output prices unchanged. Comment: Commenting on the

Full Story on PiQ Suite Business activity in Russia’s services sector grew at a slower pace in September amid a weaker rise in demand, a business survey showed on Thursday, with firms also moderating their hiring efforts. The S&P Global Purchasing Managers’ Index for Russian services fell to 50.5 in September from 52.3 in August,

more to come This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

The USDJPY is trading to a new high at 146.47. In doing so, the pair is up testing the high from last Friday at 146.465. Technically, a move above that high with momentum would have traders targeting the tabletop near 147.189 from September 2 and September 3 The move was largely driven earlier in the

MORNING BLAST WITH @PiQSuite AND @MrMBrown Join Michael and Ryan for an explosive daily market preview. Thurs 3rd Oct. 08:30 BST / 09:30 CET / 03:30 EST Set Reminder Here 15 minutes to kickstart your trading day This article was written by Ryan Paisey at www.forexlive.com.

Discover how to apply risk management in forex even as a complete beginner so that you’ll never blow a trading account ever again The post How To Apply Risk Management In Forex (The Complete Guide) appeared first on TradingwithRayner.

Asia market FX interventionGlobal Rate-Cutting Cycle Shift in September: What Comes Next?Nomura urge a ‘more sober assessment’ on China stimulus rallyVanishing town highlights the challenges faced by famous son, Bank of Japan Governor UedaUSD/JPY off its highs after the latest headline out of JapanJapan PM Ishiba didn’t request any special policy from BOJ Gov Ueda

Australian August trade surplus larger than expected Just posting these numbers, the focus is on comments out the Bank of Japan and the Japanese leadership pertinent to the yen and Nikkie This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

USD/JPY: 148.00 (US$1.74b), 145.75 (US$1.15b) EUR/USD: 1.1100 (EUR4.06b), 1.1060 (EUR2.37b), 1.1000 (EUR2.04b) AUD/USD: 0.6950 (AUD739.5m), 0.6785 (AUD1.16b) USD/CAD: 1.3550 (US$1.09b) NZD/USD: 0.6310 (NZD1.4b) GBP/USD: 1.3130 (GBP479.8m), 1.3300 (GBP381.1m) USD/CHF: 0.8500 (US$788.6m) For more information on how to use this data, you may refer to this post here. This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at

Commerzbank is forecasting USD/JPY bak up to 150. If you are a raging bull on USD/JPY the bad news is analysts at the bank say it’ll hit 150 by the end of 2025. Commerzbank say that the Bank of Japan will complete rate hikes by the end of 2024, and that Japanese inflation will hold

The main event in the European session was the Switzerland CPI which missed expectations by a big margin once again. We will also get the final PMI readings but those are generally not market moving. In the American session, we get the US Jobless Claims figures and the US ISM Services PMI which are gonna

At 1040 US Eastern time / 1440 GMT, Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari will moderate a discussion with Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic Topic will be on an inclusive economyIts at an event organized by the Minneapolis Fed. A Q&A is expected to follow. Kashkari spoke on September 23: Fed’s Kashkari: 50 bps rate cut

Headlines that crossed: BOJ’s Noguchi says must patiently maintain loose monetary conditionsJapan PM Ishiba didn’t request any special policy from BOJ Gov Ueda at Wednesday meeting USD/JPY off its earlier highs: This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

Hong Kong’s Hang Seng index is down 3% on the session so far, pulling back after its blistering rally in the wake of stimulus announcement s from China last week. Nomura is sounding a note of caution in a note today: “What has happened in the past week has already reminded us about the epic

The September ANZ Commodity Price Index for New Zealand: +1.8% m/m in September In New Zealand dollar terms, the index fell 0.2% m/m as the NZD Trade Weighted Index lifted 1.0%. The index tracks the prices of 17 of New Zealand’s major commodity exports, including dairy products, meat, wool, forestry products, and seafood. *** As

This is from the comments at this post here: Here’s a forecast for USD/JPY back to 150 – stick a fork in the BOJ, they’re (nearly) done Nice work! ps. The 1980s had loads of the biggest moves ever, if I’m reading the above correctly. They were wild times. This article was written by Eamonn

Bank Indonesia, the Indonesian central bank, has intervened in the forex market to support the rupiah: to ensure the balance of supply and demandsays IDR weakened due to rising geopolitical tension in the Middle East USD/IDR seen around 15,395 This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

There is a cascade of 50bp rate cut calls for the Reserve Bank of New Zealand meeting next week: ANZ say the path of least resistance for the RBNZ is a 50bp interest rate cut next weekMore on BNZ forecasting a 50bp interest rate cut next week from the RBNZHere is another forecast for a

US major indices are closing the day higher with modest changes. The indices moved lower at the start of the trading day with lows reached in the 1st hour of trading. At session lows: Dow industrial average was down 188.18 pointsS&P index was down -34.75 pointsNASDAQ index was down -142.57 points. Highs were reached near

S&P Global Market Intelligence comments were reported in the Wall Street Journal (gated). In brief: many importers and manufacturers pulled forward orders to try to get ahead of the looming East Coast port strike now under way if not resolved soon, the strike could eventually affect the shipping of 40% to 50% of U.S. importsdisruptions

Analysts at KiwiBank title their note: The RBNZ will most likely cut 50bps next week, and again in November. It’s the easiest thing to do. KiwiBank have been well ahead of the curve on projecting 50bpo rate cuts in October and November from the Reserve Bank of New Zealand. From their latest: now that a

A snippet via UBS, info conveyed by Reuters overnight. Analysts at the bank are eyeing very weak European Union economic growth data. They say if growth doesn’t pick up the ECB could cut rates to 1 to 1.5%. I posted yesterday on the gaining confidence in the market for an October 17 cut from the

MUFG on GBP, up against the Fed-weakened USD but down against the EUR …. citing quicker Bank of England interest rate cuts as economic growth slows in the UK“Previously we had assumed the first quarter next year would be when the pace of cuts picked up but we have now moved that forward to the

UK-based Alkimi, the world’s first decentralised ad exchange, is excited to announce the appointment of Robert Bradley as Non-Executive Director. Robert brings over 20 years of experience in the media industry, working for the biggest media brands, and leading digital innovation, commercial strategy, and ad tech operations, driving significant revenue growth across global markets. As

Good morning, afternoon and evening all. Any charts, technical analysis, trade ideas, thoughts, views, ForexLive traders would like to share and discuss with fellow ForexLive traders, please do so: This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

US debt level is a concern in the long termWorried price pressure could get ‘stuck’ next yearSees two further quarter-point cuts this year as a ‘reasonable path’ if economy evolves as expectedExpects unemployment and inflation to stay roughly stable for the rest of this yearSees renewed tight labor and demand spurred by Fed rate cuts

While the trade data from Australia is marked as high priority its unlikely to shift the AUD too much upon release. A low priority calendar overall. Note that mainland China remains on holiday today. Hong Kong markets are open (Stock Connect is not … what is Stock Connect? Check this post out, scroll down a

Ray Dalio posted on LinkedIn on the weekend regarding the latest stimlus push from China. It’s sparked a massive rally (and likely a short squeeze) in Chinese equities. He’s not convinced it’s enough: China’s leadership announced reflationary policies and support for free markets last weekSees this as potentially historic, comparable to Draghi’s “whatever it takes”

There has been some commentary that the door is open for Isreal to retaliate by focusing on the nuclear sites. Pres.Biden is on the wires saying: Does not support an attack on Iran’s nuclear sites.There will be some sanctions imposed on IranSays “Iran is way off course” This article was written by Greg Michalowski at

I’m not sure if it’s the US inventory data that’s weighing on oil or a giveback from Middle East tensions but crude is struggling. OPEC+ didn’t offer anything at the JMMC meeting today but that’s not a surprise. This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

All options on the table for October decision The market is almost fully priced for a 25 bps ECB cut this month and continuing at at least that pace until next summer. This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

Today is going to be a bit empty on the data front. The only highlights will be the Eurozone unemployment rate and the US ADP report. The Eurozone unemployment rate is expected to remain unchanged at 6.4%, while the US ADP is seen at 120K jobs added vs. 99K in the prior month. We will

There is an interesting war of words unfolding between OPEC and the Wall Street Journal. The WSJ today published an article saying that Saudi’s oil minister warned of $50 oil if cheaters within OPEC don’t stick to limits. They cited delegates who were on the call. The Saudi message was “there is no point in

The buying in the USDJPY has pushed the price through targets at 146.204 and 61.8% retracement of the move down from the August 16 high at 145.639 (see the earlier video on the USDJPY – GO to 4:08 on the video for the start of the analysis of the USDJPY). The price is approaching the

Several reports say OPEC is likely to change compensation cut schedules but that’s hardly a market mover. All eyes are on Israel and Iran at the moment and the potential for an Israeli strike on Iran’s oil infrastructure. This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

The major European indices are closing the day with mixed results. Looking at the closing levels; German DAX, -0.33% France’s CAC +0.05%UK’s FTSE 100 +0.17%Spain’s Ibex -0.55%Italy’s FTSE MIB -0.28% As London/European traders exit for the day, the US stock indices are in positive territory and trading near highs for the day: Dow industrial average

The USDCAD is waffling up and down in trading today with the current price trading near lows. Yesterday, the price closed below its 100 hour moving average (blue line) and 200 hour MA (green line). That is a bearish tilt technically. Today the 100-hour moving average and 200 hour moving average are near converged at

Inflation has converge closely to ECB’s targetEuro area inflation has been anchored This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

Today’s Fed Speaker Schedule via @NewsquawkUK Financial System Faces Growing Concerns Amid Global Economic Downturn FearsUnited States MBA 30-Year Mortgage Rate – Actual: 6.14% Previous: 6.13%Japan’s PM Ishiba: Not in an environment for additional rate hikeOPEC+ Panel Meeting: No Surprise, Gradual Output Increase ExpectedUS Futures Lower, Dollar Retreats – @Newsquawk Market UpdateAUDUSD Technical Analysis –

I wrote about the main factors driving USD/JPY higher earlier but the move has now extended to 200 pips, including about 80 since the ADP data. Treasury yields are up 3-6 bps across the curve and some are saying that’s because of diminishing fears of Middle East war. I’m not so sure that’s the case.

Richmond Fed Pres. Barton is a speaking The Fed’s 50 basis point cut was warranted as rates were at of St. with declines inflation and unemployment rate near its sustainable levelFed cannot declare inflation battle is overExpect little further drop in core PCE until next yearWatching closely how lower interest rates influence home and auto

ECB’s Schanbel is speaking. Some highlights from her speech: Monetary policy cannot solve structural problemsReturn to 2% target in a timely manner is becoming more and more likely despite elevated services inflation and strong wage growthGrowth in the euro area has become increasingly uneven in recent years.Monetary policy may contribute to rising heterogeneity, but it

The NZDUSD is moving lower, hitting fresh lows for the day, and once again testing yesterday’s low near 0.6263. This level sits below the 38.2% retracement of September’s trading range at 0.62727. Earlier in the day, the price briefly climbed above the 200-hour moving average (at 0.6299), but it couldn’t hold, and sellers took control,

A report says that Israel’s cabinet has decided on a harsh response to Iran’s attack, but it also said the response will not lead to a regional war. That’s a fine line to walk. It also notes that the full decision hasn’t been made yet and that US political considerations will be part of the

ECB cannot exclude or commit to a rate cut in October,There will be more cut, but will depend on the dataDownward trend in inflation is sustainable and will continue This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

Full Story on PiQ Suite OPEC+ set to keep output policy unchanged at panel meeting An OPEC+ ministerial panel scheduled to meet on Wednesday is unlikely to recommend any changes to policy, allowing the group to start gradually increasing production from December, two sources from told Reuters. The two sources, who declined to be identified,

Morning Blast with @PiQSuite and @MrMBrown Join Michael and Ryan for an explosive daily market preview. Daily – 08:30 BST / 09:30 CET / 03:30 EST Listen via X here This article was written by Ryan Paisey at www.forexlive.com.

There is an interesting risk/reward setup in oil at the moment as it looks like Israel will hit back against Iran. Axios reports: “Israeli officials tell Axios it will launch a “significant retaliation” within days that could target oil production facilities inside Iran and other strategic site” The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps has been spreading

US TV show “60 Minutes” will air a primetime election special on Monday, October 7, at 8 p.m. US Eastern time. For over 50 years, the program has offered both Democratic and Republican candidates the opportunity to appear as Americans prepare to cast their votes. This year, both Vice President Kamala Harris and former President

Wards outlined softer US auto sales in September and Q3. Q3 2024 Highlights: Q3 sales: 3.88M units, down 1.9% from 3.96M in Q3 2023Q3 SAAR: 15.6M units, flat y/y and down from 15.7M in Q2Year-to-date sales through September: 11.69M units, up 1% y/y Hurricane Helene may have cut sales by 100-200K units. I’d also note

Full Story via Newsquawk APAC stocks traded mixed with some cautiousness seen amid heightened tensions in the Middle East after Iran conducted a missile attack on Israel.Israeli officials cited by Axios said Israel will launch a strong response within days, which could target oil production facilities inside Iran.European equity futures are indicative of a positive

USD/JPY rose to the best levels of the day after the US ADP employment report beat estimates. Jobs rose by 143K in the month of September compared to 120K expected. USD/JPY broke 145 on the report and is now up 162 pip to 145.18. The broader moves are coming on both sides of the trade.

I’ll monitor for any kind of Q&A. Barkin is scheduled to speak at 12:15 pm ET. This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

Full Story on PiQ Suite BoJ’s Ueda has been the wires, with the following headlines landing on the terminal. JAPAN’S ECONOMY RECOVERING MODERATELY ALBEIT WITH SOME WEAK SIGNSTREND INFLATION, WHICH IS LIKELY STILL BELOW 2%, LIKELY TO GRADUALLY ACCELERATEOUTLOOK FOR OVERSEAS ECONOMIES, INCLUDING U.S. ECONOMY, REMAINS UNCERTAINUNCERTAINTY SURROUNDING JAPAN’S ECONOMY, PRICES REMAIN HIGHMUST BE VIGILANT

Unemployment rate 6.4% vs 6.4% expected and 6.4% prior. This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at www.forexlive.com.

Today’s Fed Speaker Schedule via Newsquawk SCHEDULE (BST / EDT) 14:00 / 09:00: Fed’s Hammack (2024 voter, Neutral) to speak at the 2024 Minorities in Banking Forum Text: no, Q&A: no. 15:05 / 10:05: Fed’s Musalem (2025 Voter, Neutral) to speak on “Where Research and Policy Meet”. Text: yes. Q&A: no. 16:00 / 11:00: Fed’s

For a rundown of geopolitical developments on Tuesday: Forexlive European FX news wrap: The US Dollar adds to yesterday’s gainsForexlive Americas FX news wrap: Iran hits Israel with missile attack The significant escalation sent oil prices higher. Brent has traded up near $74.50 during Asia time. Its going on towards 5 am in Israel and

Prior was +99K (revised to +103K)Annual pay growth for job-stayers 4.7% vs 4.8% priorJob-changers’ pay gains 6.6% vs 7.3% priorServices +101K vs +72K priorGoods +42K vs +27K priorThere was strength in construction, education and leisure/hospitality USD/JPY is at the highs of the day after this report, breaking 145.00 and up nearly 150 pips on the

The major US stock indices are lower in early US trading as the markets digest geopolitical risks (Iran and Isreal), the US port strike and the implications, stronger ADP employment, and Fed policy. Israel and Iran are on the precipice of a bigger conflict with some saying this is the opportunity to take out some

The analysts consensus for Q3 deliveries was 463,310 but the whisper number was 472K based on VIN numbers. Tesla reported deliveries of 443,956 and production of 410,831 for Q2. The likely bigger market mover for Tesla will be the robotaxi event on October 10 and shares have risen 20% in the past month in anticipation.

Sector Overview Today’s stock market heatmap highlights a pronounced divergence in sector performance. The energy sector stands out, exhibiting robust gains, driven by Exxon Mobil (XOM), which is up by 1.53%. This surge is likely attributed to rising oil prices and increased demand expectations. On the contrary, the healthcare sector is under pressure, with major

The kickstart video for October 2, takes a technical look at the EURUSD, USDJPY and GBPUSD. The ADP jobs report came in stronger than expected and that has the USD moving a touch although the EURUSD and GBPUSD is consolidating and looking for the next shove. The USDJPY is moving higher. EURUSD: The EURUSD fell

Crude oil inventories +3889K vs -1250K expGasoline inventories +1119K vs +450K expDistillates inventories -1284K vs -1400K expRefinery utilization -3.3% versus expectations of -0.5%. Previously -1.2% I wonder if there isn’t some kind of skew here due to hurricane preparations. The private oil data showed a decent draw and a bigger draw in distillates. This article

Fundamental Overview The US Dollar got a bit of a boost this week as Fed Chair Powell reiterated that 50 bps of easing by year end remains the base case. The market’s probability for the Fed to cut by 50 bps in November fell from 51% to 40% as a result. On the data side,

Fundamental Overview The US Dollar got a bit of a boost this week as Fed Chair Powell reiterated that 50 bps of easing by year end remains the base case. The market’s probability for the Fed to cut by 50 bps in November fell from 51% to 40% as a result. On the data side,

The AUD is the strongest and the JPY is the weakest as the NA session begins. The USD is mixed to start the day. The newest “day after” is the day after the Iran attack on Isreal. The question now is what, if any, is the response? Will Isreal target more important Iranian strategic sites?

Full Story on PiQ Suite Worries about risks to the UK financial system posed by a global economic downturn have risen sharply to their highest level since the second half of 2019, a Bank of England (BOE) survey showed on Wednesday. The Bank’s twice-yearly systemic risk survey polled 55 financial firms between July 23 and

The USDCHF has broken to the upside today at 18 price moved above its 100 bar moving average on the 4-hour chart had 0.8486. Recall from last week the high price for the week stalled right near that moving average and found willing sellers. Breaking above today is a technical shift to the upside. It

Full Story via EMW on PiQ Suite South Korean CPI inflation eases to 1.6% y/y in September on falling transport prices Core CPI rises by 1.8% y/y compared to 1.9% y/y in August Fresh food prices stabilize at low 3% y/y growth CPI print increases odds that BOK will ease in October meeting CPI inflation

Full story via PiQ Suite President Joe Biden’s administration heaped pressure on U.S. port employers to raise their offer to secure a labor deal with dockworkers on strike for a second day on Wednesday, choking half the country’s ocean shipping. The strike by the International Longshoremen’s Association (ILA) union has blocked everything from food to

Risks to growth are still tilted to the downside.Economic recovery is to strengthen over time. This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at www.forexlive.com.

Not in an environment for additional rate hike.I want to coordinate with the BoJ on the economy.I want to make the economy strong with an economic package.We will do all we can to overcome deflation.I expect the BoJ to conduct policy to exit from deflation based on 2013 accords.I expect the monetary easing trend to

Federal Reserve speakers Wednesday include Barkin, Hammack, Musalem and BowmanANZ say the path of least resistance for the RBNZ is a 50bp interest rate cut next weekJapan’s Eco Min says not necessarily correct that Ishiba positive about further rate hikesMainland China is on holiday, leaves Hong Kong to ramp shares even higherSouth Korea promises bold,

Looking at the S&P 500 index, it is down by -59.03 pointer -1.02% at 5702.88 . The low price for the day extended to 5681.28. The high price is at 5757.73. On the downside, the rising 100-hour moving average comes in at 5675.06. So the low price at 5681.28, got within about six points of

via the ECB’s website – ECB’s Lane has released a slide deck titled “Expectations and Monetary Policy” LINK As the the fine fellas at Newsquawk have noted, it’s very hard to infer much here given we are yet to hear any comment from Lane on this.All a bit random. This article was written by Ryan

Full Story on PiQ Suite The idea of an “Asian NATO” floated by Japan’s new prime minister is one to consider in the mid- to long-term but not imminent, the new foreign minister, Takeshi Iwaya, said on Wednesday. Asian nations have expressed skepticism and reticence in response to the call from Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba,

The runway at Miyazaki airport in southwest Japan was closed Wednesday after an explosion was reported, local authorities said. The runway closure has led to the suspension of all Japan Airlines and All Nippon Airways flights to and from the airport, according to the airlines. Local firefighters said they received a report at around 8:10

via PiQ Suite Citi has joined a growing number of banks in expecting the ECB to cut policy rates by 25 bps in OctoberExpects ECB to cut rates in October, December and through the start of 2025, to reach a deposit rate of 1.5% by September 2025Given recent comms from Lagarde, a 25 bps cut

Fundamental Overview The US Dollar got a bit of a boost this week as Fed Chair Powell reiterated that 50 bps of easing by year end remains the base case. The market’s probability for the Fed to cut by 50 bps in November fell from 51% to 40% as a result. On the data side,

Latest U.S. Mortgage Data: 30-Year Mortgage Rate Actual: 6.14% Previous: 6.13%Mortgage Applications (WoW) Actual: -1.3% Previous: 11.0%Mortgage Market IndexActual: 292.3 Previous: 296.1Purchase Index Actual: 149.3 Previous: 148.2Mortgage Refinance IndexActual: 1,099.5 Previous: 1,132.9 This article was written by Ryan Paisey at www.forexlive.com.

Not a lot of substance on the economy from either of these two. My expectation of anything substantive was basically zdero. That was delivered. I posted a bit of a preview via BMO here: the market appears more focused on the immediate implications of the Middle Eastern conflict and the upcoming employment data Yep. This

OPEC+ members not sticking to their agreed quotas??? No Sh*t!!A story as old as the cartel itself. Kingdom called out members for overproducing, in what was seen as a veiled threat of a price war The Saudi oil minister has said that prices could drop to as low as $50 per barrel if so-called cheaters

Always a ‘must read’ from the lads at Newsquawk LINK TO FULL NOTE Summary – European bourses are generally on a firmer footing whilst US futures are modestly lower with slight underperformance in the RTYDollar is flat unable to continue the prior day’s geopolitical-indued gains, JPY underperforms with USD/JPY around 144.25USTs are flat and Bunds

South Korean Vice Finance Minister: Will take immediate, bold measures if market volatility heightens excessively No further details at this stage. Earlier in the session were encouraging inflation data from South Korea: South Korean September consumer price index marks slowest rise y/y since February 2021 This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

Fundamental Overview The US Dollar got a bit of a boost this week as Fed Chair Powell reiterated that 50 bps of easing by year end remains the base case. The market’s probability for the Fed to cut by 50 bps in November fell from 51% to 40% as a result. On the data side,

Info comes via Reuters report. South Korea September consumer price index +1.6% y/y (Reuters poll +1.9%) +0.1% m/m (Reuters poll +0.3%)Core CPI +2.0% y/y vs +2.1% in AugustSeptember consumer price index marks slowest rise y/y since February 2021Core CPI marks slowest rise y/y since November 2021 South Korean finance minister remarkson the lower inflation data,

Full Story on PiQ Suite Global asset prices remain stretched and are vulnerable to a big fall as investors grow more concerned about geopolitical risks, the Bank of England said on Wednesday. The BoE said overall risks to British financial stability were unchanged compared with its last assessment in June, but that it would be

Full Story on PiQ SuiteJapan’s central bank must be vigilant to fallout from unstable markets and global uncertainties, Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda said on Wednesday, sharpening the focus on the need to bolster economic recovery and for caution on raising rates. Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba on Tuesday urged the BOJ to maintain loose

Full Story on PiQ Suite The dollar held onto its biggest gains in a week on Wednesday after an Iranian missile attack on Israel drove the buying of safe haven assets as investors fretted about the widening of conflict in the Middle East. The euro was little changed against the dollar at $1.1069, following its

Full Story on Newsquawk IRAN’S MISSILE ATTACK ON ISRAEL: Iran’s IRGC launched nearly 200 missiles towards Israel, targeting military bases and civilians. Iran’s Revolutionary Guards said they targeted three Israeli military bases in a missile attack and used hypersonic ‘Fattah’ missiles in the Israeli attack, according to state TV. The attack was in retaliation for

Japan’s newly appointed Economy Minister Akazawa hasn’t learnt about FX volatility yet! Says not necessarily correct that Prime Minister Ishiba positive about further rate hikes complete exit from deflation is top prioritysays Bank of Japan should be careful about raising rates given it takes time to completely exit deflationIshiba’s comments on need for monetary policy

Crude oil futures are settling at $69.83. That’s up $1.66 or 2.44%. The high price extended to $71.91. The low price that $66.36. Iran launched missiles at Israel, raising fears of a wider Middle East conflict. Israel intercepted most of the missiles, easing immediate concerns. Meanwhile, Israel intensified airstrikes on Hezbollah, killing its leader, and

A BMO note previews the debate coming up between Vance and Walz. I popped this up earlier: Tune in for the Vance vs. Walz debate at 2100 US Eastern time (0100 GMT) In the note BMO say that given the unpredictability of this election cycle, the debate is expected to draw significant attention, and that

Full Story via PiQ Suite Futures in Japan face hangover from BoJ’s bond-buying binge Japan’s $9 trillion bond market is bracing for disruption as a shortage of paper caused by the central bank’s massive buying is expected to hit the settlement of derivatives used by investors and the dealers who underwrite the nation’s debt sales.

Goldman Sachs note on the US port strike, in summary: estimate that a 10-day full shutdown of East Coast and Gulf Coast ports would result in a 0.2pp hit to quarterly annualized GDP growth in Q4Most transportation-industry strikes since 2000 have lasted less than 2 weeks. In order to weigh on October payrolls, the strike

Mainland China is off on holiday until Tuesday October 8. Northbound and Southbound Stock Connect is closed until then too. Hong Kong is going it alone though, with stocks ramping stunningly higher yet again today. The moves are in response to all the stimulus announced from China last week. Earlier: China is on holidays –

Good morning, afternoon and evening all. Any charts, technical analysis, trade ideas, thoughts, views, ForexLive traders would like to share and discuss with fellow ForexLive traders, please do so: This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

Outside of the US these two are little known. On the Democrats side, Kamala Harris’s running mate is Tim Walz former high school teacher and football coachfirst elected to Congress in 2006, representing a rural district in Minnesotaquit Congress in 2019 to become the state’s governorknown as ‘Coach’ Walz On the Republican side, Donald Trump’s

I posted earlier on the cascade of calls coming in for a 50bp interest rate cut by the Reserve Bank of New Zealand at the meeting on October 9. More on BNZ forecasting a 50bp interest rate cut next week from the RBNZHere is another forecast for a 50bp interest rate cut from the RBNZ

US east coast port workers are on strike: nearly 45,000 workers are out on strikeas far north as Maine to as far south as Texas However, west coast ports are still open and rockin’ business. Via NBC in LA: Ports in California, Oregon, Washington, Hawaii, and British Columbia are unionized under the “International Longshore and

more to come This snapshot from the ForexLive economic data calendar, access it here. The times in the left-most column are GMT. The numbers in the right-most column are the ‘prior’ (previous month/quarter as the case may be) result. The number in the column next to that, where there is a number, is the consensus

This comes via Dow Jones / Market Watch (gated). In brief: The mines in Spruce Pine, N.C., about an hour outside of Asheville, produce a unique kind of high-purity quartz used in semiconductor manufacturing. The town is the only place in the world where the uniquely high-quality mineral can be found in such large quantities

The major US stock indices are closing sharply lower as geopolitical concerns weigh on the market sentiment. Iran’s missile attack on Israel seemed to be a choreographed theatrical performance but was real and that often leads to a knee-jerk reaction to the downside. Apple expectations for iPhone sales also were a drag. The number of

Forecasts of a 50bp interest rate cut from the Reserve Bank of New Zealand on October 9 are piling up: More on BNZ forecasting a 50bp interest rate cut next week from the RBNZ Here is another forecast for a 50bp interest rate cut from the RBNZ next week HSBC, too, are calling for a

The times below are in GMT/US Eastern time format 1300/0900 Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland President Beth Hammack gives welcome remarks before the 2024 Minorities in Banking Forum hosted by the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland 1405/1005 Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis President Alberto Musalem gives welcome remarks before the Community Banking Research Conference

The J.P.Morgan / S&P Global Market Global Manufacturing PMI was published overnight Tuesday, coming in at 48.8 in September. Output, new orders, employment, and stocks of purchases all fell, contributing to the contraction.Suppliers’ delivery times were the only component making a positive contribution.Manufacturing production decreased for the first time in 2024 due to reduced new

The numbers via oilprice.com on Twitter: — Expectations I had seen centred on: Headline crude -1.3 mn barrelsDistillates -1.5 mn bblsGasoline -0.1 mn — This data point is from a privately-conducted survey by the American Petroleum Institute (API). It’s a survey of oil storage facilities and companiesThe official report is due Wednesday morning US time.

Justin is off for a few days. I am not jealous. Nope. 🙁 For the 10am New York cut today, Wednesday, October 2, 2024: USD/JPY 144.00 (USD832m), 139.00 (USD560m) EUR/USD 1.1025 (EUR2.11b), 1.1125 (EUR1.48b), 1.1100 (EUR1.21b) AUD/USD 0.6950 (AUD495m), 0.6800 (AUD480m) USD/CAD 1.3500 (USD487.8m) NZD/USD 0.6300 (NZD638m), 0.6230 (NZD582m) USD/CNY 7.1100 (USD400m) For more information

Via a Goldman Sachs note, analysts there say all the excitement over Chinese stimulus measures is a tad misplaced, they only expect a 40bp boost to GDP. There is no doubting the impact on sentiment, Chinese equities exploded higher right through until the holidays started on Tuesday (China reopens on October 8 – its long

I posted yesterday on the 50bp rate cut projection from BNZ: More on BNZ forecasting a 50bp interest rate cut next week from the RBNZ Westpac NZ too, has lowered its projections for the Official Cash Rate (OCR), now anticipating 50 basis point cuts in both October and November. According to the latest analysis from

The arrow highlights when the first reports of Iran attacks hit and now AUD/USD has recouped a bit more than half of the drop. There are no reports of casualties in Israel following the attacks, though information is limited. For now, the market is taking a breather. The S&P 500 has trimmed the decline to

Lagarde spoke on Monday, expressing confidence on dropping inflation and that the Bank would not wait until the target is hit before cutting again. The Wall Street Journal (gated) gather together a few analysts now locking in an October 17 rate cut: “Anything other than an October cut will now be difficult to justify,” said

There are post-attack highs ongoing in cable, the euro and commodity currencies. There is less enthusiasm in stocks, with the S&P 500 stalled and still down 38 points. The market is steadily recovering after the attacks and so far the market is tentatively-optimistic that escalation can be contained. Cable is still in a big hole

UBS gold forecasts from a note on rising conflict in the Middle East: end of 2024 forecast is to USD 2,750by Q4 2025 to USD 2,900 In brief from the note: anticipate that global markets will face occasional disruptions but do not foresee a full-scale conflict between Israel and Iranexpect energy flows from the Middle

A second round of Iranian missiles is on the wayIsraeli military says 10M civilians were targeted by the missilesIsraeli finance minister says Iran will regret this moment as it regretted Gaza, Hezbollah, and the state of LebanonHeavy gunfire continues in Beirut Iran says they launched tens of missiles to Israel. Israel will be targeted once

The Iranian bombs have stopped falling and so has the stock indices. The Dow industrial average is trading down as much as -384.52 points. It is currently down only 54 points or -0.12%.The S&P index traded down as much as 81.20 points. Is currently down -38.93 points or -0.67%.The NASDAQ index traded down as much

Missiles have been launched from Iran toward Israel. Missiles entering airspace in TelAvivIran says its response to Israel has been carried outIDF spokesperson: We will respond to Iranian missiles at the appropriate time and placeUS September ISM manufacturing index 47.2 vs 47.5 expectedUS August construction spending -0.1% vs +0.1% expectedUS Sept S&P Global final manufacturing

An Israel Defense Force spokesman says that the Air Force will carry out “powerful airstrikes” tonight, throughout the Middle East I’d be careful with this for now as some of the reports say decisions about such attacks will be taken tonight. Lending credence to the report is that Iran has cancelled all flights until 10

Prior was -7.7Revenue index +10.1 vs +8.7 prior (highest in 13 months)Employment +2.0 vs +0.6 priorCompany outlook +1.2 vs -3.1 priorSix month index +17.4vs +12.4 prior Comments in the report: Utilities I feel the economy is getting better. Professional, scientific and technical services Our employees are very overworked. We have had a very difficult time

Data is here: Australian August retail sales +0.7% m/m (expected +0.4%) The Australian Bureau of Statistics have slotted in a ready made narrative: “Retail spending was boosted this month by warmer-than-usual weather for this time of year. “This year was the warmest August on record since 1910, which saw more spending on items typically purchased

There are no additional threats at this timeMany missiles were intercepted, there were some strikesThis attack was serious and will have consequencesWe are not aware of any casualtiesWe have plans. We will act at the time and place of our choosing There are some reports saying the response will be different to the one in

Iran’s mission to the UN has posted a statement. It’s similar to the one posted after the April attack and appears to be aimed at de-escalation: Iran’s legal, rational, and legitimate response to the terrorist acts of the Zionist regime—which involved targeting Iranian nationals and interests and infringing upon the national sovereignty of the Islamic

The GBPUSD downside has continued with the price breaking below its 38.2% retracement of the September trading range at 1.3268 and has move down to test the rising 100 bar moving average on a 4-hour chart at 1.3243. The low price just reached 1.3244.For the EURUSD, the price is falling below a swing area between

WTI crude is up 5% and flirting with the highest levels in a month after Iranian strikes on Israel. So far there are no reports of casualties (though it’s early) and it appears Iran is done. However there are many videos circulating online of the missiles striking targets. The question now is: How will Israel

Good morning, afternoon and evening all. Any charts, technical analysis, trade ideas, thoughts, views, ForexLive traders would like to share and discuss with fellow ForexLive traders, please do so:. Thread to post financial markets trading ideas – Post ’em if ya got ’em! This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

As the NA session begins, the CAD is the strongest and the NZD is the weakest. The USD is stronger a day after Fed Chair Powell tapped the brakes saying that two 25 basis point cuts were likely if the trends continue. Powell indicated that monetary policy will gradually move toward a neutral stance if

The yen has a strong bid and risk assets are slumping after an Axios report suggested the White House believes that Iran is preparing to launch missiles at Israel. AUD/JPY highlights the move: The S&P 500 is also down 40 points and Treasury yields are down 10 bps at the long end. More on the

The AUDUSD and the NZDUSD are both lower as risk-off sentiment and geopolitical tensions hurt what has been a bullish bias in the pairs. The AUDUSD reached the highest level for the year yesterday forming a double top in the process (going back to February 2023). The double top, did give sellers the go-ahead to

The info from the Bank of Japan this morning is here: Bank of Japan September meeting ‘Summary of opinions’ there were signs on the day of the meeting of the Bank being cautious on further rate hikles due to market volatility. So the Summary expressing the same is not fresh news. Its been enough to

There has been another hiccup in risk trades in the past few minutes, though less so in bonds. It could be that some fresh details are crossing on Iran’s plans to strike imminently. The first is from the Israeli media and says: Three Israeli officials quoted anonymously by the NYT say that Iran would likely

Have respect for all exporters, I know the strong Frank makes situation difficult for them.The main problem first was exporters is the lower demand abroad.Last week we did not rule out further interest rate cuts.Cannot rule out any measures, but nobody likes negative interest rates.The SNB cannot rule out negative interest rates. We rule nothing

Israeli military is announcing: Assassinates Mohammed Jaafar Qasir, the commander in charge of weapons transfer from Iran and its affiliates to Hezbollah. The surgically planned weakening of Hezbollah is continuing and will continue. This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

A difficult start does not always lead to a dismal end, especially in the markets. September started on a bleak note, but by the end of the month, the indices had performed surprisingly well. To clarify, they stumbled after hearing that the manufacturing sector had declined for the fifth month, along with disappointing labor market

Final Manufacturing PMI 51.5 vs. 51.5 expected and 52.5 prior. Key findings: Growth of output and new orders ease slightly. Business confidence down to nine-month low. Comment: Rob Dobson, Director at S&P Global Market Intelligence: “The UK manufacturing sector is still expanding at a solid, albeit slightly slower, pace. Output rose for the fifth successive

Prior month 7.673M revised to 7.711MJob openings 8.040M. Vacancy rate 4.8% versus 4.6% last month Quits rate 1.9% versus 2.0% last month (revised from 2.1%)Separations rate 3.1% versus 3.2% last month Details: 1.3 million fewer openings than the previous year Increases in construction (+138,000) and local government (+78,000) job openings Decrease in other services (-93,000)

Euro falls to fresh lows on the dayEurozone September preliminary CPI +1.8% vs +1.8% y/y expectedUK September final manufacturing PMI 51.5 vs. 51.5 prelimECB’s Rehn: The scale is tipping towards a rate cut in OctoberUS, China reportedly set to hold talks on trade and economic tiesECB’s Rehn: Direction of monetary policy is clearEurozone September final

ECBs Kazaks says The European Central Bank (ECB) has a “clear-cut” case for cutting interest rates at its next meeting, as the euro zone’s economy nears a tipping pointInvestors have already priced in a rate cut for the ECB’s October 17 meeting, driven by lower-than-expected inflation and growth data, and messaging from ECB officials like

Missiles have been launched from a brand toward Israel.The 2nd wave grants missiles will reach Israel in about 75 minutesIran is expected to launch 242 250 missiles in two ways at four targets in Israel, including Mossad HQ and three airbases (as per ABC News) The script is playing out. The question is how successful

Sky News Arabia is out with a report that Iran informed “international parties” of the scale and timing of its anticipated attack on Israel, citing a US Department of Defense official. Well that pretty much confirms that this is all theatre. This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

Prior was +0.8%Whole milk prices +3.0% NZD/USD is down 67 pips today or 1.1% to 0.6281. Yesterday it touched the highest in over a year. This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

Deutsche is the latest to revise their call and sees the ECB cutting rates in October now. However, they’re going a little further than others in factoring in the potential for a 50 bps rate cut in December. The firm says that it could be a close call if recent weaker growth and inflation trends

Prior 45.8 The manufacturing sector woes continue in the euro area, largely thanks to Germany. The region’s backbone continues to see its industry suffer and that is weighing further on overall sentiment. Both new orders and output were seen declining at their fastest pace for the year, highlighting the issues plaguing the Eurozone at the

Manufacturing PMI 53.0 vs. 50.2 expected and 50.5 prior. Key findings: Solid gains in both output and new orders signalled. Return to growth in employment. First cut in output charges since April. Comment: Commenting on the PMI data, Jonas Feldhusen, Junior Economist at Hamburg Commercial Bank, said: “Spain is and remains the outlier among the

German DAX futures +0.2%UK FTSE futures +0.2% European indices ended September trading on a softer note but there is some light optimism early in the day here. The overall risk mood is more mixed though as US futures are down marginally by 0.1% currently. So, the changes are light and there will be US data

The GDP tracker was boosted in the prior release but it’s been reeled back in. “After this morning’s construction spending release from the US Census Bureau and the Manufacturing ISM Report On Business from the Institute for Supply Management, the nowcasts of third-quarter real personal consumption expenditures growth and third-quarter real gross private domestic growth

The pressure is back on the euro now as traders are rebuffing expectations for a rate cut by the ECB in October. That comes after Rehn was out saying that the scale is tipping towards that now, at least in his view. It’s the first sign of any ECB policymaker confirming the recent shift in

Hopes AI will serve as a counterweight to inflationProductivity improvements from AI will come with long and variable lags I think markets continue to underestimate the macro impacts of AI and robotics. This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

The GBPUSD is moving to a new low an din the process is moving further away from swing area above between 1.33308 and 1.33393. On the downside, the 38.2% is the next key target for traders which comes in at 1.32683. Below that and the rising 100 bar MA on the 4-hour chart comes in

Prior +2.2%Core CPI +2.7% vs +2.7% y/y expectedPrior +2.8% The readings are as expected with headline annual inflation ticking below 2% for the first time since 2021. That said, core annual inflation only eased ever so slightly to 2.7%. So, that’s still the bigger focus with services inflation continuing to sit higher mostly. But all

Prior month -0.3%Seasonally adjusted annual rate $2,131.9 billion vs $2,162.7 billion priorConstruction spending +4.1% y/y in AugustPrivate construction -0.2% m/mPublic construction +0.3% m/mResidential -0.3% m/m, +2.7% y/yNonresidential +0.1% m/m, +5.2% y/y Construction spending dipped slightly in August but remains solidly higher compared to last year. The housing sector continues to face headwinds, while nonresidential and

The report is via China’s Xinhua news agency, which says that China commerce minister Wang Wentao will be holding a call with his US counterpart some time in the near future. The call is said to involve discussing trade and economic ties, according to people familiar with the matter. At this stage, any developments regarding

Prior 43.9 There is a slight revision higher to the initial estimate but it still points to a downturn in France’s industrial sector at the end of Q3. Both output and new orders continue to show deep declines but at least the pace of that is easing. HCOB notes that: “The French industrial sector remains