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Earlier today, in the kickstart video, I outlined the following key support level for the EURUSD. That level was shown and outlined between 1.1131 and 1.11399. Here is that clip…. So what happened? Below is the chart of the price action today. Of not is the low price stalled between the level outlined in the […]

In the kickstart video from earlier today, I highlighted the key levels in the GBPUSD. On the downside the 1.3265 was key support. Looking at the GBPUSD price action since then (see chart below), the low price for the day came in at 1.32676, just 2 pips short of the targeted support. So the buyers

Shares of Intel are trading up 5.82% after reports from the WSJ that Qualcomm approached the company about a takeover in recent days. The shares of Intel are down in 2024 from an end of year closing level of $50.25. The current price is up $1.23 or 5.82% at $22.37 in volatile trading . The

The major US stock indices are closing the day with mixed results. It was triple witching hour so there was some end-of-day volatility, that could have impacted the price action. At the ending bell, the Dow industrial average is closing higher. The broader S&P and NASDAQ indices are closing lower. They small-cap Russell 2000 was

Fed’s Harker who has already spoken earlier today, is back on the wires saying: There is a risk that inflation decline could stallThere is a risk that labor market could soften This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

The NASDAQ index is down -100 points or -0.55%. The prices back down testing the low price from yesterday near 17909.75. Early today, the price fell below that level on its way to fill the gap from Wednesday to Thursday ( i.e the high from Wednesday). Buyers came in near the level and pushed the

In the kickstart video for September 20, 2024, I take a look at three the major currency pairs – the EURUSD, USDJPY and GBPUSD – from a technical perspective. The EURUSD has traded up and down today but stayed below the 1.1184 – 1.11897 area. The 1.1184 level was initiated as a technical level going

Morgan Stanley anticipates a series of 25bp cuts from the Federal Reserve through mid-2025 and recommends maintaining short positions on USD/JPY, targeting a move towards 138. Key Points: FOMC Rate Decision: The FOMC cut the federal funds rate by 50bp to 4.875%, reflecting ongoing progress on inflation and concerns regarding the labor market. Economic Projections

Sees progress on inflation and labor market cooling since mid-2023Believes smaller initial move preferable to avoid premature victory declaration I see the risk that the Committee’s larger policy action could be interpreted as a premature declaration of victory on our price stability mandate Although hiring appears to have softened, layoffs remain lowConsumer spending reflects a

The Canadian dollar is in an interesting spot at the moment. Domestically, real estate markets are clearly hurting and it’s going to take at least 200 bps of rate cuts to fix it. But that’s coming. The government is also extremely unpopular but a change is coming there too, in no more than 13 months.

The recent drop in oil prices hasn’t curbed drilling yet but could hurt budgets for 2025. This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

The AUDUSD moved up and tested a swing level near 0.6823 in the Asian and European session. The price then moved lower as stocks fell in the early US trading. However, as the price of the AUDUSD approached its rising 100 hour moving average at 0.6778, the buyers have returned, and stalled the fall. Why

The NZDUSD continues to experience volatile price action following the FOMC rate decision, with today’s trading seeing an initial move to the downside. The fall took the price briefly below its 100-hour moving average, marking a departure from the recent trend. However, this break was short-lived, and the price has since reversed sharply to the

Aware of criticism on communication being insufficient, with regards to post-July meeting market routWould be good to have communicate more frequently on our view on price outlookMarket rout in early August was temporaryThe impact on consumption and financial system is negligibleSome evident in CPI data today that wage hikes are reflected in services pricesBut impact

The US stocks are moving a little higher on the Fed Waller comments. The Nasdaq index moved to a low of 17835.64. That got close to filling the gap from yesterday’s trading which had a gap down to 17832.70 (so got within 3 points of that level). The price has moved back toward the low

The economy is strong and inflation is coming downI was open to the idea that we could front-load and the inflation data during blackout pushed me in that directionCPI and PPI will feed into core PCE; which will be somewhere around 0.14%Over the last four months, core PCE running at 1.8% with very high housing-services

And they’re off…. The US stock market is open and the major indices are marginally lower to start the trading day after sharp gains yesterday. They snapshot of the market currently shows: Dow industrial average -113.26 points or -0.27% at 41911.93. Yesterday they Dow closed at a new record level.S&P index -12.8% points or -0.22%

German DAX futures -0.4%UK FTSE futures -0.5% This comes with US futures also marginally lower by around 0.1% currently. Equities enjoyed some post-Fed euphoria in trading yesterday but the party is meeting a bit of a pause as we turn over to the new day. That is keeping the dollar more muted in general as

Fundamental Overview On Wednesday, the Fed finally started its easing cycle and decided to do it with a 50 bps cut. The market was already leaning towards a 50 bps move, so it wasn’t a surprise. The larger cut was framed as kind of an “insurance” cut with the dot plot showing two more 25

The US stocks have started to weaken with the broader S&P and NASDAQ indices now down around -0.45%. The Dow industrial average is down -0.35%. For the NASDAQ index it has moved back below the swing high price from August 22. Yesterday the price moved above that level at 18014.24, but closed just below it

China state banks buying USD/CNY (selling onshore yuan) according to unnamed sources This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

As the clock ticks toward the weekend, a look at the USDCAD with a look toward next week is important. This week, the price action got more volatile on Wednesday helped by the FOMC rate decision. The initial move was to the downside, but the 100-bar moving average on a 4-hour charts stalled the fall

📊 Sector Overview: Divergent Performances Across Markets Today’s US stock market presents a mixed bag of performances across various sectors. While some giants show resilience, others endure noticeable declines, painting a complex picture for investors. 📉 Semiconductor Sector: Declines Cast a Shadow The semiconductor sector is struggling, with big names showcasing a downturn. Nvidia (NVDA)

Prior +0.5%; revised to +0.7%Retail sales +2.5% vs +1.4% y/y expectedPrior +1.4%; revised to +1.5%Retail sales (ex autos, fuel) +1.1% vs +0.5% m/m expectedPrior +0.7%; revised to +1.0%Retail sales (ex autos, fuel) +2.3% vs +1.1% y/y expectedPrior +1.4% UK retail sales beat on estimates again in August with a rise in almost all categories. Some

Prelim was +0.6%August preliminary +0.5%Ex-autos +0.4% vs +0.3% expectedPrior ex-autos +0.3%Sales were up in seven of nine subsectorsEx-autos and gas +0.6% These numbers are a surprise, especially the August preliminary data, which runs opposite to what RBC cardholder data has been showing. For July, new car sales rose 2.2% and that drove much of the

The major stock indices moved sharply higher overnight in the Asian and European sessions after the FOMC rate decision gave foreign buyers a nudge to plow back in the US stocks. In the US session the day momentum continued with the NASDAQ index leading the way The NASDAQ index had its best day since August

In the morning video, I spoke about the 50% midpoint of the move up from the January 2023 low at 144.581. The price has been trading above and below that level over the last 1-2 months, but the run higher this week has returned back to the level, and that gives traders an option: Lean

It was a poor finish to Friday for European stocks and that led to a negative week. On the day: Stoxx 600 -1.5%German DAX -1.4%France’s CAC -1.5%UK’s FTSE 100 -1.2%Spain’s IBEX -0.1%Italy’s FTSE MIB -0.8% This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

China’s power consumption is regularly used as a gauge of economic activity. It rose 8.8% y/y in August power consumption in primary industry and secondary industry rose 8.7% & 8.9% y/y respectivelyservice sector +10.8% (was +11.2 in July) For the first eight months of the year, China’s power consumption rose 9% y/y, unchanged from the

Goldman Sachs anticipates the Bank of England will implement a 25bp cut at the November meeting, following the recent decision to maintain the Bank Rate. Key Points: BoE Decision Details: The Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) voted 8-1 to keep the Bank Rate unchanged and will maintain gilt stock reductions at £100 billion. Gradual Approach Signaled:

The People’s Bank of China is expected to cut its main policy reverse repo rate, along with its Loan Prime Rates (LPRs) today. The rate cut from the Federal Reserve this week is expected ease the way for cuts from the PBOC. The PBOC has shifted to the 7 day repo rate as being the

Analysts at BlackRock are wary of Wednesday’s move from the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC), describing the extent of the rate cut as unexpected. They say that while the 50bp cut might benefit the markets in the short term, they believe it also increases the likelihood of more volatility, especially if growth and inflation don’t

Fundamental Overview Crude oil continues to remain supported as the buyers might be looking forward to the consequences of the Fed’s easing cycle on economic activity. As a reminder, the positioning in crude oil is at record lows and the sentiment is very bearish. These factors can generally offer great contrarian opportunities. The main reason

Bloomberg carry the report saying that China is considering removing some of the largest remaining restrictions on home purchases. Add that ‘after previous measures failed to revive a moribund housing market’ Bloomberg citing unnamed sources ‘familiar with the matter’. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

I saw this nostalgic photo of the IBM office in Toronto in 1963 yesterday and it’s a good one to share ahead of today’s economic calendar, which is heavy on Canada. Canadian retail sales and PPI are due at the bottom of the in what’s an otherwise-quiet day on the data calendar. Yesterday, RBC’s Canadian

Following the Bank of England’s decision to maintain policy rates, Credit Agricole highlights the GBP’s emerging status as a high-yield currency, supported by the potential for future easing. Key Points: BoE Decision and Forward Guidance: The BoE kept rates unchanged in September while signaling future gradual easing. Only one member dissented for a 25bp cut,

It is better to remain restrictive for longerWe can cut more aggressively later once inflation risk is containedThere appears to be more upside risks to inflation in the UKUK has seen more of an impact on services pricesContemplated to vote to cut rates in August but wanted to avoid “boogie-dance” on rates She also adds

Fed Governor Chris Waller scheduled for an 11:30 a.m. ET appearance on CNBC. It will be the first set of Fed comments since the decision as the blackout lifts. He could start to frame how the FOMC will think about the November meeting. At the moment, the market is pricing in a 59% chance of

The dollar fell in trading yesterday as the post-Fed digestion continues to play out. Equities ripped higher but so far today, there hasn’t been much follow through. USD/JPY is down slightly as the BOJ keeps monetary policy unchanged but dollar pairs in general are holding on to narrow ranges thus far. Meanwhile, S&P 500 futures

Prior +0.2% The slight bump in August owes mostly to energy prices (+0.8%). If you strip that out, producer prices were actually flat on the month in Germany. Looking at the other individual breakdowns, intermediate goods prices fell by 0.3%, capital goods prices rose by 0.1%, durable consumer goods rose by 0.2%, and non-durable consumer

Fundamental Overview On Wednesday, the Fed finally started its easing cycle and decided to do it with a 50 bps cut. The market was already leaning towards a 50 bps move, so it wasn’t a surprise. The larger cut was framed as kind of an “insurance” cut with the dot plot showing two more 25

Up, up and away for gold? The bulls are certainly looking poised and are angling for the next leg higher now as we approach European trading. Price is running above the $2,600 mark to fresh all-time highs as the post-Fed musings continue to play out. Traders are starting to push odds of another 50 bps

1800 GMT / 1400 US Eastern time: Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia President Patrick Harker speakingtopic is “The Federal Reserve: It’s More Than Just Interest Rates” before the Tulane University Freeman School of Business Lecture event This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

Fundamental Overview On Wednesday, the Fed finally started its easing cycle and decided to do it with a 50 bps cut. The market was already leaning towards a 50 bps move, so it wasn’t a surprise. The larger cut was framed as kind of an “insurance” cut with the dot plot showing two more 25

Prior was -13.5 This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

Headlines: BOJ governor Ueda: Japan economy is recovering moderately, although there is some weaknessBOJ governor Ueda: Recent data confirms economy is moving in line with our outlookBOJ governor Ueda: Will carefully communicate thinking behind policy decision with marketsBOJ governor Ueda: Easy monetary conditions are in place as real rates remain negativeGold tops $2,600 as the

The USDCHF continues to trade within a narrow range, fluctuating between 0.8400 and 0.85368 since August 20 (a month ago now). The majority of price action has been contained within this range, with brief extremes on either side that quickly fizzled out. Key technical levels include the 100-bar moving average on the 4-hour chart at

Prior 97Manufacturing confidence 99Prior 99Services confidence 98Prior 98 Sentiment for the industry and services remains unchanged from the month before. But the good news at least is that the employment climate has returned back to its long-term average of 100, up from 98 previously. This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

1230 GMT / 0830 Eastern time: Bank of Canada Governor Tiff Macklem is giving a speech at the National Bureau of Economic ResearchEconomics of Artificial Intelligence Conference BoC is on a rate cutting cycle. Earlier in the week we heard from: Bank of Canada Rogers still sees work to do on inflation, but core should

Uncertainties surrounding Japan’s economy, prices remain highMust pay due attention to financial markets and impact on the economy, pricesWill keep adjusting degree of easing if outlook on economy, prices is to be realisedWill monitor economic, market trends with extremely high sense of urgencyMarkets remain unstable (referring to Uchida’s take of not raising rates when it

Eurostoxx -0.4%Germany DAX -0.5%France CAC 40 -0.2%UK FTSE -0.5%Spain IBEX +0.1%Italy FTSE MIB -0.3% This comes as S&P 500 futures are also seen down 0.1% with Nasdaq futures down 0.2% currently. Overall, it’s just a minor check back for stocks on the week. Investors are still contemplating some post-Fed musings and we’ll see what Wall

Prior IPPI MoM 0.0% Prior raw material price (RMPI) MoM 0.7%IPPI YoY 0.2% vs 2.9% last month revised to 2.8%RMPI MoM -3.1% vs -2.0% estimateRMPI YoY -2.5% vs 4.1% last month Much lower than expectations. For the IPPI Lower prices for energy and petroleum products were mainly responsible for the decline. Excluding energy and petroleum

Fundamental Overview The Fed this week finally started its easing cycle and decided to do it with a 50 bps cut. The market was already leaning towards a 50 bps move, so it wasn’t a surprise. The larger cut was framed as kind of an “insurance” cut with the dot plot showing two more 25

The Fed might be signaling that they intend to cut by just 25 bps each in November and December. However, they’ve shown this week that they can be bullied into a decision by markets. The onus now lies on economic data in the weeks ahead to vindicate the Fed’s outlook. So, if we are to

The dollar fell in trading yesterday but there’s no extension to that so far today. Besides USD/JPY, other dollar pairs remain relatively muted after some light extension to the ranges earlier. Here’s a snapshot of things currently: GBP/USD did nudge up to a high of 1.3340 after the upbeat UK retail sales data but has

People’s Bank of China USD/CNY reference rate is due around 0115 GMT. The People’s Bank of China (PBOC), China’s central bank, is responsible for setting the daily midpoint of the yuan (also known as renminbi or RMB). The PBOC follows a managed floating exchange rate system that allows the value of the yuan to fluctuate

Inflation could be more-prone than it was in the past 25 years in a shock-prone worldCentral banks need to be closely attuned to how AI is affecting inflation, both indirectly and directlyAI is expected to boost productivity, when labor productivity is rising, economy can grow more quickly without causing inflationAI could destroy more jobs than

As the North American session begins, the GBP is the strongest and the JPY is the weakest. The USD is stronger. The Bank of Japan (BOJ) left interest rates unchanged at 0.25% during its September 2024 monetary policy meeting. This was as expected. The BOJ noted that Japan’s economy is recovering moderately, though some weaknesses

Discover how to perform volume analysis with deadly accuracy to spot and trade reversals in the market The post The Essential Guide To Volume Analysis appeared first on TradingwithRayner.

0800 GMT / 0400 US Eastern time: Keynote speech by Catherine L Mann, external member of the monetary policy committee for Bank of Englandvenue is the Central Bank Research Association, National Bank of Poland and Bank of Lithuania 5th biennial conferencethe conference title is “Macroeconomic adjustments after large global shocks” – Also speaking is David

There are a couple to take note of on the day, as highlighted in bold. The first ones are for EUR/USD and layered between 1.1150 and 1.1200. Given the more muted action so far, the expiries could keep price action in check before rolling off later in the day. If the dollar does weaken further,

We raised assessment on private consumption as wages are growingRecent data suggests we may be able to raise outlook on underlying inflationHowever, overseas trends raise uncertainties on thatBut there is no change to our thinking that will keep raising rates if economy moves in line with outlookNot yet able to narrow down Japan’s estimated neutral

CBA have moved their expected timing of the first Reserve Bank of Australia rate cut from November 2024 to December 2024 expect a 25bp cutrecent strength in employment growth coupled with still relatively hawkish rhetoric from the RBA Governor means we now see December as the more likely month for the start of normalising the

Bank of Japan current short-term rate is 0.25% Japan’s economy recovering moderately, albeit with some weaknessesInflation expectations heightening moderatelyInflation likely to be at level generally consistent with BOJ’s price target in second half of our 3-year projection period through fiscal 2026Consumption rising moderately as a trendJapan’s economy likely to achieve growth above potentialMust be vigilant

Reuters poll of economists on what they expect from the Reserve Bank of Australia meeting on September 24: all 45 surveyed expect the cash rate to remain at 4.35%40 expect that rate to persist through 2024the median expectation is for a 25bp rate cut in Q1 of 2025 Reasoning is, in a nutshell, that while

US Treasury Secretary Yellen spoke at en event in Washinton DC on Thursday. Yellen was Chair of the Federal Reserve System before Powell, and is now a political appointee. On the rate cut: “It reflects confidence on the part of the Fed that inflation has come way down and is on the path back to

US initial jobless claims 219K vs 230K estimateSeptember Philly Fed +1.7 vs -1.0 expectedUS August existing home sales 3.86m vs 3.90m expectedECB’s Schnabel: Inflation outlook remains challenging, policy vigilance neededCanadian consumer spending struggled in August – RBC trackerBOE leaves bank rate unchanged at 5.00%, as expectedBOE’s Bailey: Optimisitic UK rates will fall further, need more

US economy achieving soft landing is our main scenarioIf US economy achieves soft landing, negative impact on Japan economy would be smallJapan interest rate is probably still lower than neutral rate despite rate hikesWe don’t react directly to forex rates but their impact on inflation outlookWe will not use monetary policy to control forex rates

Good morning, afternoon and evening all. Any charts, technical analysis, trade ideas, thoughts, views, ForexLive traders would like to share and discuss with fellow ForexLive traders, please do so: This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

Bloomberg: China Weighs Removing Major Homebuying Curbs to Boost DemandFederal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia President Harker speaking on FridayChina’s electricity consumption rose 8.9% year on year in AugustRBA meting next week – preview – to leave the cash rate on hold at 4.35%Bank of Japan leaves rates unchanged, as widely expectedEuropean Central Bank President Lagarde

It wasn’t just the BOJ that was the only Asian central bank in focus today. The PBOC was also on the agenda but left the loan prime rate (LPR) unchanged, even though there were some expectations for a cut. Here’s the round up of the week in central banks so far: Federal Reserve September interest

We have left the door totally open The headline rebuffs the narrative that they are set to keep rates unchanged next month. They may be “open” to moving at any meeting but it is clear that they are comfortable with leaving things as they are for October, at least for now. This article was written

In the European session, the only highlight was the UK Retail Sales report which surprised to the upside across the board. In the American session, we have the Canadian Retail Sales and PPI data. Downside surprises will likely reinforce the markets expectations for a 50 bps cut from the BoC at the upcoming meeting with

Earlier in the US session, I posted: The price did bounce off the 100-hour MA, and after getting above the 1.1140 level, has extended up to a corrective high of 1.1167. The next target comes in at the high for the day at 1.1178. Above that and the high from yesterday and from August 28

HSBC is eyeing the RBA higher for longer vs. an easing Federal Reserve. Various reports from analysts at the bank cite the strong labour market report yesterday alongside sticky high inflation as helping to bolster both: market expectations for the Reserve Bank of Australia to keep rates unchangedand for AUD/USD Conclusions of the reports include

The market is frothy at the thought of a soft landing today after Powell pledged to preserve the strength of the economy yesterday and delivered a half-point cut. Fed projections are for 4.4% unemployment through next year and — presumably — anything higher than that would bring more-aggressive cuts. That’s a strong put on growth

Christopher Luxon is Prime Minister of New Zealand Speaking in a TV interview. Luxon says has limited fiscal space to stimulate the economy. tighter fiscal policy helps in the fight on inflation – Yesterday data confirmed the NZ economy shrunk in Q2: New Zealand Q2 GDP -0.2% q/q (expected -0.4%) This article was written by

The National Development and Reform Commission of the People’s Republic of China (NDRC) is the ‘state planner’. From a news conference held late on Thursday: Approved 83 fixed-asset investment projects worth a total of 673.1 billion yuan in January-August.We are capable and confident of achieving full-year economic and social development goals.Will roll out a batch

The People’s Bank of China set the onshore yuan (CNY) reference rate for the trading session ahead. USD/CNY is the onshore yuan. Its permitted to trade plus or minus 2% from this daily reference rate.CNH is the offshore yuan. USD /CNH has no restrictions on its trading range.A significantly stronger or weaker rate than expected

People’s Bank of China leaves 1-year Loan Prime Rate (LPR) unchanged at 3.35% and 5-year Loan Prime Rate (LPR) unchanged at 3.85%. The five-year rate is used as a reference for long-term credit including mortgages. Polling had shown expectations for a rate cut: People’s Bank of China rate cuts are expected today: LPRs, repo —

Japanese CPI Overall 3.0% y/y expected 3.0%, prior 2.8% Core CPI (excluding fresh food) 2.8% y/y expected 2.8%, prior 2.7% Core-core 2.0% y/y, expected 2.0%, prior 1.9%excluding fresh food and energy, this is the closest to US core inflation All three CPI data points are higher than in the previous month. While the BoJ is

UK GfK Consumer Confidence September 2024 is disappointing, turns even more deeply pessimistic. Comes in at a six-month low of -20 in September, a seven point drop from August expected -13, prior -13August’s -13 was the (joint) best in nearly three years GfK comments: households appeared to be responding to the messages from PM Starmer

The head of US fixed income from Wells Fargo was on CNBC today and he made the point that sub-3.5% in US 10s is too low for the environment we’re in. The Fed is now cutting and prepared to cut aggressively to preserve US economic strength. Sub-3.5% with Fed funds at 4.75-5.00% is a recession

1500 GMT / 1100 US Eastern time 2024 Michel Camdessus Central Banking Lecture by ECB President Christine Lagarde organised by the IMF 1530 GMT / 1130 US Eastern time Conversation between ECB President Christine Lagarde and Kristalina Georgieva, Managing Director IMF, at 2024 Michel Camdessus Central Banking Lecture organised by the IMF in Washington, USA

ICYMI, Justin ahd the headline on this Thursday: Goldman Sachs now sees Fed cutting by 25 bps at each meeting until June next year Adding in a little more now: from the GS note. Analsyst at the bank argue that the main reason for the larger rate cut, and the key takeaway from the meeting,

The Bank of Japan policy statement is due sometime in 0230 – 0330 GMT time slot (2230 – 2330 US Eastern time) The BoJ is likely to hold monetary policy steady, the current short-term rate is 0.25%, and maintain its view the economy will continue to recover moderately as rising wages underpin consumption. Signalling from

UBS on the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) rate cut and outlook for US equities. In summary: With signs that inflation is being brought under control, the Federal Reserve can now shift its focus to fostering job growth and economic expansion while managing the risk of a recession. UBS continue to expect 100 basis points

Morgan Stanley shifts its risk outlook on the USD to neutral and recommends going long on JPY against the USD and other risk-sensitive currencies amid heightened concerns of a hard landing. Key Points: Risk Skew Adjustment: Morgan Stanley adjusts its risk skew on the USD to neutral in light of ongoing market turbulence and hard-landing

The GBPUSD experienced a volatile session today, similar to many other pairs. Following the Bank of England’s decision to keep interest rates unchanged, the price surged to a high of 1.33132. However, the momentum reversed after the US weekly jobless claims report came in better than expected, prompting a rotation lower. The price tested a

August National CPI data from Japan is due on Friday Japan time. We have had the Tokyo CPI data for August, which came in higher vs. July: Tokyo area Aug inflation data: Headline 2.6% y/y (prior 2.2%) The Bank of Japan statement follows a few hours later. There is no set time for the BoJ

The bulls aren’t letting off the gas pedal today with the S&P 500 now at the highs of the day, rising 2% or 114 points to 5732. The Nasdaq is also up 3%. Some of the leaders are AMD (+7%), Tesla (+7%), ABNB (+6.6%) and NVDA (+5.5%). This article was written by Adam Button at

The AUDUSD is trading higher today, boosted by risk-on sentiment as US stocks surge. The Dow is up 633 points (1.52%), while the S&P 500 and Nasdaq have gained 2.00% and 2.95%, respectively. In the European session, the AUDUSD reached a new high, but struggled to sustain momentum above a key resistance zone between 0.6818

The Bank of England meets today, Thursday, September 19, 2024. Decision due at 1100 GMT 0700 US Eastern time I posted a preview earlier here: BoA anticipate the Bank of England (BoE) will maintain Bank Rate at 5.0% at meeting today TD is also tipping an on hold result: 7-2 vote expected TD outline 3

This is obviously some kind of act of war but the attacks have likely been so effective that the war is over before it even began. This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

The Federal Reserve cut rates by 50 basis points yesterday, but since then, the US 30 year mortgage rate has moved up six basis points to 6.17%. Of course the Fed funds rate is a shorter-term overnight lending rate that the Fed targets in its monetary policy. Meanwhile, mortgage rates are more closely tied to

Prior was 3.95m (revised to 3.96m)Sales -2.5% vs +1.3% prior Sales -4.2% vs -2.5% y/y priorInventory 4.2 vs 4.0 months priorMedian prices $416,700 vs $422,600 priorPrices +3.1% vs +4.2% y/y prior These are closings for contracts signed in June and July. This is a two-tier market with high-end homes (above $700K) selling and everything below

The People’s Bank of China set the onshore yuan (CNY) reference rate for the trading session ahead. USD/CNY is the onshore yuan. Its permitted to trade plus or minus 2% from this daily reference rate.CNH is the offshore yuan. USD /CNH has no restrictions on its trading range.A significantly stronger or weaker rate than expected

RBC’s Canadian consumer spending tracker is a good measure of real-time spending based on credit card data. Usually it’s released around the 10th of the month and I’ve been checking it daily, wondering why the long wait. It’s finally out and shows that August retail sales ex-autos, likely declined on a month-over-month basis both before

Headlines: BOE leaves bank rate unchanged at 5.00%, as expectedDollar struggles on the session, equities ramp higher as wellWeekly update on interest rate expectationsFed still on track to cut rates by 125 bps in total for 2024 – CitiGoldman Sachs now sees Fed cutting by 25 bps at each meeting until June next yearECB’s Schnabel:

New Zealand economic growth data for the April to June quarter of 2024 NZD/USD is around 0.6219, not a lot of change on this result. – New Zealand’s economy contracted in Q2 retail trade and accommodation, agriculture, forestry, and fishing and wholesale trade slowed The Reserve Bank of New Zealand had forecast the economy contracted

People’s Bank of China USD/CNY reference rate is due around 0115 GMT. The People’s Bank of China (PBOC), China’s central bank, is responsible for setting the daily midpoint of the yuan (also known as renminbi or RMB). The PBOC follows a managed floating exchange rate system that allows the value of the yuan to fluctuate

The USDCAD price action is experiencing high volatility in today’s trading, following yesterday’s bounce between support and resistance levels. Initially, the price moved upward, breaking above the 38.2% retracement level of the decline from the August high, which stood at 1.3633. However, after reaching a peak of 1.3647 in the Asian session, the momentum shifted,

Since its launch in April 2024, mobile-first trading platform 50K.Trade has revolutionized personal finance and investing for Europeans. With its user-friendly interface, commission-free trading, and high interest rates on unused cash, it is creating a buzz, particularly among millennials and first-time investors. If you’re considering using 50K.Trade or are curious about its features, here are

As such, they are maintaining their outlook for the Fed to cut by 50 bps in November before closing things out with a 25 bps cut in December. The latter is changed as Citi did previously expect the Fed to go by 25 bps yesterday before moving by 50 bps in November and December. But

New Zealand economc growth data leads off the calendar. Another contraction for the economy is expected. I posted earlier in the week in the view from NZ Treasury: New Zealand Treasury see more positive data, but no firm sign of a recovery just yet Australian labour market data follows. I’ll have more to come on

The Bank of England held rates at 5.00% today in a move that wasn’t certain but wasn’t entirely expected. Economists at Deutsche Bank forecast no change and after the announcement spike, the pound gave back gains. DB highlighted three takeaways from the decision: 1)There was only one dissent in the 8-1 vote. They thought there

The NASDAQ index is leading the way to the upside today with a gain of 490 points or 2.8% at 18064. The high price reached 18078.20. That took the index up 504.90 points on the day. At session lows today the price was still up 336.45 points. Although surging, the price is still 3.29% away

The kneejerk reaction was for a weaker dollar as yields came off slightly as well. But all that didn’t last too long as the yields bounced back alongside the dollar. Equities raced higher initially too before falling back to close lower by the end of the day. The sell the fact trade prevailed, or at

It is the day after…. The day after the Fed cut rates by 50 bps. US stocks are sharply higher as a Fed initiated a floor at all-time highs in the Dow and S&P. HMMMM. However, the Fed sees it as a “recalibration” of rates after restrictive policy that helped to lower inflation over the

Good morning, afternoon and evening all. Any charts, technical analysis, trade ideas, thoughts, views, ForexLive traders would like to share and discuss with fellow ForexLive traders, please do so: This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

The S&P 500 has extended gains to 103 points, or 1.8%. The Nasdaq is up 2.8%. The weekly chart of the S&P 500 is looking awfully good if it can get through Friday at these levels. The FX market isn’t quite as enthusiastic but that’s because the bond market is looking further out and pricing

The USDCHF continues to experience volatile price action, with the current move testing a crucial downside target. After failing to break above the 38.2% retracement level of the decline from the mid-August high to the September low, the price has rotated back to the downside. The 38.2% retracement level was situated at 0.85172, with the

Prior was -237.6B (revised to -241.0B) This will be a drag on growth but it’s inevitable in an outperforming economy. This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

South Korea’s finance minister Choi Sang-mok said the government will closely coordinate with the central bank and regulators to deploy contingency plans for financial markets if needed as external uncertainties persist after the Fed lowered interest ratesalso said he expects South Korea’s household debt growth to gradually easebut stands ready to swiftly announce additional measures

For newcomers to the world of foreign exchange trading, one of the most crucial decisions is determining the optimal time to engage in the forex market. Unlike traditional stock markets, the forex market operates 24 hours a day, five days a week, presenting both opportunities and challenges for beginners. This article will explore the best

Prior week initial jobless claims 230K revised to 231K Prior week continuing claims 1.850M revised to 1.843M Initial jobless claims comes in strong and expected at 219K versus 230K estimate. Smallest sincethird week in May when it was at 216KThe 4-week moving average was 227,5K a decrease of 3,500 from the previous week’s revised average.

Eurostoxx +1.0%Germany DAX +0.7%France CAC 40 +1.3%UK FTSE +0.8%Spain IBEX +0.9%Italy FTSE MIB +0.8% S&P 500 futures are up 1.1%, Nasdaq futures up 1.6%, and Dow futures up 0.7% currently. There was a bit of a hiccup right after the Fed decision yesterday but equities are looking to bounce back stronger today. It looks like

The ECB’s Schnabel published a series of slides on the ECB website. She highlights sticky services inflation. Services inflation remains sticky, keeping headline inflation elevatedPrice pressures in services sector are broad-based and globalMedium-term inflation projections often clustered around 2% target, but risks remainWage growth expected to slow, but real wage catch-up still incomplete in parts

The economic woes for Germany are coming from every direction. High energy prices and competition from China are undermining its manufacturing and export-oriented economy. The problems at Volkswagen are apparently worse than previously assumed, according to Manager-Magazine. In the medium term, the number of employees in Germany alone could be reduced by 30,000 to 100,000,

Largest Gathering with 20000+ Visitors and 200+ Exhibitors marking it as one of the largest Expo in the world with just 2 Weeks remaining the excitement is building to date. Forex Expo Dubai 2024 will bring together Top Industry Leaders, renowned guest speakers, and a myriad of experiences designed to engage and inspire attendees. Forex

July 31September 18, 2024 Federal Reserve issues FOMC statement For release at 2:00 p.m. EDT ShareShare Recent indicators suggest that economic activity has continued to expand at a solid pace. Job gains have moderatedslowed, and the unemployment rate has moved up but remains low. Inflation has eased over the past year but remains somewhat elevated.

Sector Overview The US stock market is experiencing a strong upward momentum today, with significant gains across major sectors. Notably, the technology and consumer cyclical sectors are posting impressive results. Key players like Microsoft (MSFT) are up by 2.23%, and Nvidia (NVDA) is surging with a remarkable 3.70% increase. Consumer cyclical stocks are also enjoying

Forex trading is a profitable business but at the same time, it is not an easy business. As there are so many courses out there, it is helpful to know what to consider in order to avoid wasting time, money and energy. To ensure that you get the best forex trading course here is a

The volatility in the EURUSD continues as the price has rotated back down after a spike lower in the Asian session, and a spike higher in the European session. The price is currently testing its 100-hour moving average of 1.1117. This represents a target on the downside that if broken would then have traders looking

As the North American session begins the AUD is the strongest and the JPY is the weakest. The USD is lower but with gains vs the JPY and the CHF. The USD is lower by 0.60% vs the GBP after the BOE kept rates unchanged a meeting after cutting by 25 basis points. The bullet

China took action against nine U.S. military-affiliated companies on Wednesday in response to U.S. arms sales to Taiwan, freezing their assets within China. This move is the latest effort to increase pressure on the United States to cease its weapons sales to the island. Organisations and individuals within China are prohibited from engaging in transactions

This is a tough stat to ignore from JPMorgan. “.. Over the past 40 years, the Fed has cut rates 12 times with the S&P 500 within 1% of an all-time highs. The market was higher a year later all 12 times with an average return of around 15%.” S&P 500 futures are up 93

The major US stock indices are ripping to the upside after the after the Fed recalibrated rates by 50 basis points and projects two more 25 bp cuts before the end of the year. A snapshot of the market eight minutes into the open is showing: Dow industrial average up 536.75 points or 1.29% at

The USDCAD moved lower with the dollar but as the comments from the Fed chair were sprinkled with the “economy is not doing badly”, gave the USD a boost. Looking at the USDCAD, moving below the cluster of MAs between 1.3580 to 1.3588 could not be helped but the 100 bar MA on the 4-hour

The Bank of America fund manager survey is always a good read as it offers up some indications on which trades are over-crowded and which ones are under-loved. This week’s survey showed improving global sentiment on soft landing optimism but a big rotation into defensives and things that will benefit from lower rates like utilities

Rates cut to 8.00% from 8.25%Decision was unanimous2025 CPI seen at 4.1% vs 4.4% priorKganyago says hold, 25 and 50 bps were on the table The global disinflationary wave is ongoing. Eight per cent is still a tough pill to swallow but rates should come down. “In the near term, we continue to see a

Fundamental Overview Yesterday, the Fed finally started its easing cycle and decided to do it with a 50 bps cut. The market was already leaning towards a 50 bps move, so it wasn’t a surprise. The larger cut was framed as kind of an “insurance” cut with the dot plot showing two more 25 bps

Decision-making process starts a month before announcement with economic projectionsGoverning Council uses consensus approach, not voting system like Fed or BoECurrent focus on sticky inflation in services, including shelter costsIncreased consideration given to risk of inflation falling below 2% targetEmphasizes BOC’s commitment to bringing inflation back to targetFull speech The speech is an interesting one

Need to see residual inflation pressures disappearImperative that UK improves its current potential growth of 1.2-1.3% More to come GBP/USD has slackened to 1.3250 after touching above 1.33 and the highs of the year. This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

Prior 5.00%Bank rate vote 8-0-1 vs 7-0-2 expected (only Dhingra dissented, wanting to cut by 25 bps)Need to be careful not to cut rates too fast or by too muchMost MPC members think in the absence of material developments, a gradual approach to removing policy restraint would be warrantedLabour market continued to loosen but that

Prior was -7.0New orders: -1.5 vs 14.6 priorShipments: -14.3 vs 8.5 priorUnfilled orders: -6.7 vs 3.2 priorDelivery times: -0.7 vs 14.1 priorInventories: 5.0 vs -4.8 priorPrices paid: 34.0 vs 24.0 priorPrices received: 24.6 vs 13.7 priorEmployment: 10.7 vs -5.7 priorAverage workweek: -13.6 vs -2.3 prior The employment metric and most future indicators improved. The manufacturing

It was a cruel, counter-intuitive squeeze in markets in the immediate aftermath of the Fed decision. It was something of a ‘sell the fact’ trade but Asian markets had a look at the state of play and decided that sometimes a cut is just a cut, not a sign of panic. As I wrote late

The price of crude oil is trading lower as the Fed Powell is conference continues. The settlement price came in at $69.88, and the current price is trading at $69.35. The low for the day reached $68.61. The high for the day was at $70.28. This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

Fundamental Overview Yesterday, the Fed finally started its easing cycle and decided to do it with a 50 bps cut. The market was already leaning towards a 50 bps move, so it wasn’t a surprise. The larger cut was framed as kind of an “insurance” cut with the dot plot showing two more 25 bps

We’re seeing fresh highs now for the euro, pound, and the commodity currencies against the dollar. EUR/USD is up 0.5% to 1.1170 with GBP/USD also up 0.5% to 1.3280 currently. AUD/USD in particular is seeing a strong jump to its highest levels for the year, up 1% to 0.6835. The pair had struggled to clear

Bank of England meets today, Thursday, September 19, 2024: 1100 GMT is 0700 US Eastern time — The below is the eFX summary of a note via Bank of America on the Bank of England and GBP For bank trade ideas, check out eFX Plus. For a limited time, get a 7 day free trial,

Looking at the breakdown, surpluses were recorded for goods (€35 billion) and services (€19 billion). Meanwhile, deficits were recorded for secondary income (€13 billion) and primary income (€1 billion). This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

I posted earlier on the data from New Zealand showing not quite as bad economic contraction as expected. But, still contraction: New Zealand Q2 GDP -0.2% q/q (expected -0.4%) Responses: What’s coming up from the Reserve Bank of New Zealand after the weak NZ GDP dataNew Zealand GDP data showed a contraction, not as bad

There are a couple to take note of on the day, as highlighted in bold. And they are all for EUR/USD, layered in between 1.1100 through to 1.1150. Traders are still largely digesting the Fed decision from yesterday but the expiries above could play a role in locking price action in and around the range

The Fed gave market players what they wanted with a 50 bps rate cut yesterday. And the aftermath so far has been… fairly calm to be fair. The dollar did drop on the kneejerk reaction yesterday but that didn’t last too long. Treasury yields are bouncing back up and that’s creating for some mixed moves

0xProcessing, a crypto payment gateway with its own proprietary blockchain infrastructure and high level of security, today announced that it now supports Base, an Ethereum Layer-2 blockchain network, with ETH and USDC being the first coins to be supported by the service. The expansion of 0xProcessing capabilities is aimed at offering its customers an improved

Rate cuts by year-end Fed: 72 bps (62% probability of 25 bps rate cut at the upcoming meeting) 2025: 196 bps ECB: 38 bps (65% probability of no change at the upcoming meeting) 2025: 152 bps BoE: 50 bps (79% probability of no change at today’s meeting) 2025: 161 bps BoC: 75 bps (58% probability

Price pressures in the services sector are broad-based and globalPass-through of higher wages to producer prices is stronger in the services sectorMomentum in services remains high and above levels consistent with price stabilityMedium-term inflation projections often clustered around 2% targetWage growth expected to slow down as past price shocks unwindPrivate sector forecasts suggest conditions for

Fundamental Overview Yesterday, the Fed finally started its easing cycle and decided to do it with a 50 bps cut. The market was already leaning towards a 50 bps move, so it wasn’t a surprise. The larger cut was framed as kind of an “insurance” cut with the dot plot showing two more 25 bps

Everything has aligned for gold in the past six months with Chinese investors looking for something new, Russia diversifying and the Fed getting on top of inflation. Eyes are on $2600 now but it’s all blue skies from a technical perspective now. This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

Fundamental Overview Yesterday, the Fed finally started its easing cycle and decided to do it with a 50 bps cut. The market was already leaning towards a 50 bps move, so it wasn’t a surprise. The larger cut was framed as kind of an “insurance” cut with the dot plot showing two more 25 bps

The Fed delivered a big cut but it was a case of ‘sell the fact’ as equities couldn’t keep the winning streak going. I think at the end of the day, you have a ‘Fed put’ now and that wins out but we could see a squeeze tomorrow. S&P 500 -0.2%Nasdaq Comp -0.2%DJIA -0.2%Russell 2000

The European session is empty on the data front with just a low tier release like the Eurozone current account. Just before the start of the American session, we have the BoE rate decision which is going to be one of the main events for today coupled with the US jobless claims figures. 11:00 GMT/07:00

The dollar is lower in European morning trade, as the post-Fed reaction is starting to weigh more heavily now. USD/JPY traded to a high of 143.94 in Asia but has been dragged all the way back down now to roughly flat levels on the day at 143.18. Looking at broader markets, equities are running higher

The EURUSD moved higher (lower USD) after the Fed cut rates by 50 bps. The price extended higher and toward swing highs for the year. The 2nd to last swing high target was at 1.11897, and that level was reached. What wasn’t reached was the double top at 1.12009 from August 23 and August 26..

You’ll notice that the HKMA base rate is slightly above the Fed Funds rate. The HKD trades in a band linked to the US dollar prescribed by the HKMA. You can see the limits of the band in the chart below. The Hong Kong Monetary Authority (HKMA) adjusts its interest rates in line with the

New Zealand Q2 GDP -0.2% q/q (expected -0.4%) I posted the summary take from ANZ New Zealand here: expect the RBNZ to deliver 25bp cuts at each meeting More now, via Reuters. This from ASB, who stick to their call for the Reserve Bank of New Zealand cut by another 50 basis points by the

German DAX futures +0.7%UK FTSE futures +0.8% US futures are also on the up with tech shares leading the charge. S&P 500 futures are now up 1.0% while Nasdaq futures are up by 1.5% on the day. Dow futures meanwhile are up by 0.6% currently. Fresh highs are beckoning for US equities again after the

New Zealand remains in a prolonged recession. RBNZ needs to get cash rate below 4%, asap.Bank of England Interest Rate Decision: Analysts Predict No Change in RatesAustralian August unemployment rate 4.2% (vs. 4.2% expected)PBOC sets USD/ CNY reference rate for today at 7.0983 (vs. estimate at 7.0924)What’s coming up from the Reserve Bank of New

The firm is changing up their call after the Fed moved more aggressively to start things off with a 50 bps rate cut here. Their previous call was for the Fed to only perform quarterly cuts in 2025. But now, they are expecting the Fed to go with 25 bps rate cuts at each of

Prior CHF 4.89 billion; revised to CHF 4.88 billion The Swiss trade surplus narrowed in August with the breakdown seen below: This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

The jobs market report for August is due today from the Australian Bureau of Statistics: 11.30 am Sydney time0130 GMT2130 US Eastern time As you’ll see in the screenshot below, the previous month’s report, July, showed another huge gain in jobs, carrying on the trend of strong employment growth over the past year. Note also

The USD is trading higher across the major FX board. Its particularly notable against the JPY. USD/JPY is around 143.90, from lows in the session earlier aroudn142.00! The dollar weakened in the lead up to the FOMC and has strengthened since. ‘Buy the fact’ indeed. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

The bill was to fund the government for 6 months. Its failed. There are 12 days until the government shuts down. Reuters: The Republican-controlled U.S. House of Representatives on Wednesday voted to defeat a stopgap government funding bill brought forward by Republican Speaker Mike Johnson, as some members of his own party opposed the measure.

The data from NZ earlier is here: New Zealand Q2 GDP -0.2% q/q (expected -0.4%) Via ANZ New Zealand, their take (in summary): The New Zealand economy contracted 0.2% q/q in Q2 on a seasonally adjusted basis … above the RBNZ’s forecast of -0.5% q/q.Despite an upward surprise for the RBNZ, overall economic momentum remains

The latest from the Australian Bureau of Statistics for the Labour Force report, August 2024. Employment +47.5k expected +25.0k, prior +58.2k Unemployment Rate 4.2% expected 4.2%, prior 4.2% Participation Rate 67.1% expected 67.1%, prior 67.1% Full Time Employment -3.1k prior + 60.5k The headline jobless rate has not disappointed. And the headline employment addition appears

The focus of the Wednesday session was, of course, on the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC). But, ICYMI, a development for stock exchanges of note. The share market top regulator, the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC),has voted to allow stock exchanges to price many shares in increments of half a cent, rather than the

The only news of note has been the rate cut from the US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) on Wednesday: Just waking up? Here’s the short summary of Wednesday’s FOMC rate cutForexlive Americas FX news wrap 18 Sep: Fed starts rate cuts with a 50 bp cut Lower US rates mean a lower USD, right?

August National CPI data from Japan is due on Friday. We have had the Tokyo CPI data for August, which came in higher vs. July: Tokyo area Aug inflation data: Headline 2.6% y/y (prior 2.2%) The Bank of Japan statement follows a few hours later. There is no rate change expected: Bank of Japan meeting

US equity close: Big Fed cut can’t fuel an 8th day of gainsThe ‘ole FOMC ‘sell the fact’ hits againCrude oil settles down eight cents at $69.88Powell Q&A: We concluded that 50 basis point cut was the right thingPowell opening statement: We’re committed to preserving our economy’s strengthGold rallies to a record high after the

FOMC cut policy rates by 50 bp target range is now 4.75-5.00%2024 dot down to 4.4%, indicating another 50 bp by year-end (it was line ball, the difference between year end 25bp and 50bp was only one dot) … expectations are currently 25 bp in November and 25 bp in December.longer-run dot was revised higher

Here is the dot plot from June 2024: Here is the dot plot from September 2024: Below is the table economic forecasts for GDP, Unemployment, PCE inflation and Core PCE inflation. Summary of the eocnomic projections: GDP steadyUnemployment rate moved higher with 4.4% the peakPCE inflation lower. To 2.1% by end of 2025 and 2.0%

Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell delivered the razzle dazzle on Wednesday with a 50 basis point cut to start the rate-lowering cycle. Economists didn’t expect the move but markets had sniffed it out with Fed funds futures pricing in a 55% chance of a larger cut. The immediate reaction was a ‘risk on’ one that

Banco Central do Brasil Monetary Policy Committee (Copom) decision 25bp SELIC rate hike more to come This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

The initial reaction on the 50 basis point rate Is for the US dollar to move lower: USDJPY. The USDJPY moved to a low of 140.76. That was within five pips of the swing low from last Wednesday’s trading day. The price is currently trading below its 100-hour moving average above at 141.09 at 140.98.

Powell will begin speaking at 2:30 pm ET. He will deliver an opening statement and then take questions. The press conference usually lasts an hour, or slightly less. This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

We’ve seen this one before. You can game out the Fed decision as much as possible but the market loves to punish both sides of the trade. That’s exactly what we’re getting at the moment as the US dollar recoups all its FOMC losses, and in some cases more than that. I think the bond

The USDJPY has announced higher after all and below the low from last Wednesday at 140.71 but stalling ahead of the December 2023 low price at 140.248. The low price reached 140.43. With the price back above the 100-hour moving average at 141.07, it keeps the buyers in play. However, they will still need to

The full statement from the September 2024 rate decision: September 18, 2024 Federal Reserve issues FOMC statement For release at 2:00 p.m. EDT Share Recent indicators suggest that economic activity has continued to expand at a solid pace. Job gains have slowed, and the unemployment rate has moved up but remains low. Inflation has made

Decision reflects our growing confidence that strength in our labor market can be maintainedConsumer spending has remained resilientEconomy is strong overallLabor market has continued to coolIf inflation were to fall more quickly, we are prepared to respondWe will adjust policy as necessary Quoteable: “This decision reflects our growing confidence that with an appropriate recalibration of

We had 2 jobs and 2 employment reports since last meeting and jobs data revisionsCites Beige BookA good place to start on what’s coming next is the SEPWe will take it meeting by meetingWe’re in the process of re-calibrating our policy stance, that will take place over timeThere is nothing in the SEP that suggests

Bowman dissents in 11-1 voteNo change to QE, as expectedEconomists widely expected a 25 bps cutFed funds futures priced the likelihood of 50 bps at 59%Fed funds were in range of 5.25% to 5.50% before the decisionNow says: The Committee has gained greater confidence that inflation is moving sustainably toward 2 percent, and judges that

The GBPUSD did make a run to the upside in the early US session and in the process extended above a swing area between 1.3221 and 1.3230. I talked about that area in the earlier video starting at the 7-minute mark. The move above that level extended the price of the GBPUSD toward the high

Good morning, afternoon and evening all. Any charts, technical analysis, trade ideas, thoughts, views, ForexLive traders would like to share and discuss with fellow ForexLive traders, please do so: This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

It’s wild that in 2027 — seven years after the pandemic emergency — governments will still be breaking eurozone deficit rules. This obviously doesn’t end well. In the long analysis, I think it will show that the optimum path for politicians trying to win the next election is to spend more, in part because the

In this video, I take a look at the technical roadmap for traders through the FOMC rate decision. What would increase the bearish bias and why? What would shift the bias more to the bullish side – at least in the short term. With the price lower and trading near 2024 lows, and the price

The Atlanta Fed GDPnow growth estimate for Q3 falls to 2.9% from 3.0% last. The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the third quarter of 2024 is 2.9 percent on September 18, down from 3.0 percent on September 17. After this morning’s housing starts report from the US Census

The major US stock indices are trading within 0.03% of unchanged as the market calmly wait for the FOMC rate decision at 2 PM ET. The S&P index reached a high price today of 5642.84. Yesterday, a new all-time high price was reached intraday at 5670.82. The high closing level is up 5669.67. The Dow

The NZD is the strongest and the USD is the weakest as the North American session begins. The USD is lower (and the weakest) ahead of the FOMC rate decision which will take place at 2 PM today. At that time, the Fed will not only decide on whether it is 25 or 50 basis

The People’s Bank of China will set Loan Prime Rates (LPRs) on Friday September 20: these benchmark lending rates remained unchanged in Augustone-year loan prime rate stayed at 3.35%the five-year rate was maintained at 3.85% In July China’s central bank confirmed several reforms to its interest rate framework, shifting from using the previous LPR precursor

Some Governing Council members were more concerned about downside risks to inflationConcern about downside risks was linked to potential further weakening of economy and labor marketOther members took the view that risks to inflation outlook were balancedMembers discussed whether weakness in Canadian consumption and housing could partly be due to caution on the part of

This data point tends not to shift NZD/USD around much at all upon release. More data yet to come from NZ: This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

Crude oil inventories -1.630M vs -0.500M estGasoline inventories +0.069M vs +0.240M estimateDistillates inventories +0.125M vs +0.551M estimateCushing -1.979M vs -1.704M last weekrefining utilization -0.7% versus expectations of -1.0%. Previously -0.5% The private inventory data yesterday showed yields of around 2M for crude, gasoline and distillates. This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

The USDCAD has been trading in a sideways pattern even though CPI data out of a Canada yesterday was weaker than expected. The unemployment rate is also moving higher with that at the highest level since 2017 (if you take out the spike from 2020 to 2021). The fundamentals are probably weaker in Canada which

I had a chance to speak with TradeGateHub earlier today about the FOMC decision, how to trade it and what I’m thinking about in terms of global growth. We also touched on CAD, precious metals, energy and the outlook for stock markets. The main takeaway for today is something I touch in within the first

Treasury yields are up 4 basis points across the curve in a sign of either: The market over-pricing a dovish FedAngst ahead of the Fed decision I tend to think it’s the latter as bond buyers have flooded in over the past two months. US 10s highlight just how far the move has come and

This is via Westpac’s preview of the inflation data due from Australia on Wendesday 25 September at 11.30 am Sydney time 0130 GMT, 2130 US Eastern time In brief: WPAC near-cast for the August Monthly CPI Indicator is –0.2%mth/2.7%yr. For the September quarter CPI our near-cast is 0.3%qtr/2.9%yr. …. Our near-cast for the Trimmed Mean

Oksana Aronov, JPMorgan Asset Management head of market strategy for alternative fixed income, spoke with CNBC on Tuesday. Says a rate cut is not needed, citing: historically low unemploymenta normal rate environment that markets are no longer used to current 4.3% unemployment rate is “certainly well within” the Fed’s 5% target, and that any recent

NZD/USD not showing much response. Currently up a few wee tics around 0.6189. The data focus for the week is Q2 GDP due Thursday local NZ time. The current account represents the most comprehensive gauge of a nation’s international financial interactions. It encapsulates not just the exchange of goods and services, but also earnings from

There are days when you REALLY need to know the roadmap technically. For me, knowing the roadmap daily is important. The roadmap tells you the targets. The roadmap tells you the risk. The roadmap keeps you in trend moves. The roadmap prevents you from riding a trend the wrong way. Today, the FOMC rate decision

Fundamental Overview Crude oil rebounded from the lows as the buyers might be looking forward to the Fed’s easing cycle. As a reminder, the positioning in crude oil is at record lows and the sentiment is very bearish. These factors can generally offer great contrarian opportunities. The main reason which could drive oil prices higher

US housing starts are due at the bottom of the hour and forecast to rebound to 1.310m after falling to a post-pandemic low last month. The long-term chart highlights the problem: US housing starts are significantly lower than they were in 1980 despite a 47% increase in US population. The housing crash led to a

What a day this is turning out to be. The implied odds of a 50 bps were almost 70% yesterday but have slipped back to 55% in a steady grind. The market just doesn’t know what’s coming but there is clearly some anxiety today about under-delivering. That’s led to a dollar rally and a selloff

No one cared about Bullard when he was at the Fed and no one cares about him now. He says the Fed couldn’t defend 50 bps. “It seems to me the Fed will coalesce around three 25 basis point cuts this year and keep a deeper cut in their pocket,” he said. This article was

Prior was 1.238m (revised to 1.237m)Starts +9.6% vs -6.8% priorBuilding permits 1.475mM vs 1.396M expectedPermits +4.9% vs -4.0% prior Starts hit a post-pandemic low last month but rebounded nicely here. They’re still far too low for population growth but rate This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

USD/JPY has extended to the highs of the day, up 154 pips to 142.15. It’s been a strong reversal after the pair touched a 2024 low of 139.59 yesterday. I’m kicking myself a bit because the doji reversal yesterday was a sign of a turn and with the Fed coming up, there was some incentive

The major indices are little changed to start the trading day. Of course, the FOMC rate decision will be key at 2 PM ET where the Fed is expected to cut by 50 basis points but the decision can go either way. What the Fed chair says, what the Dot plot and the projections for

Sector Overview The current US stock market snapshot reveals a blend of vibrant highs and subdued lows across various sectors. One standout is the automotive sector, spearheaded by Tesla (TSLA), which boasts an impressive gain of 1.44%. In contrast, the healthcare sector appears sluggish, with companies like UnitedHealth (UNH) facing a decline of 0.84%. On

A miss for the data – but do note this is a choppy data series. — The core machinery orders data is a highly volatile series its used as a leading indicator of capital spending in the coming six to nine months This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

Former Fed Mester on CNBC says” 25 or 50 bp in cuts is really a close call. Good case for series of 25 basis points cutsThe Fed is starting a series of cuts to bring restrictiveness back downIt is time to start a new phase of bringing rates lowerThe Fed will stay on the job

That is down from ~37% previously coming into today. That means traders are seeing some ~74% odds of the BOE keeping rates unchanged tomorrow. And that is pretty much the consensus expectation in any case. From earlier: UK August CPI +2.2% vs +2.2% y/y expected This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

On the day: Stoxx 600 -0.5%German DAX flatFrancis CAC -0.5%UK’s FTSE 100 -0.7%Spain’s Ibex -0.1%Italy’s FTSE MIB -0.4% There was a nice run-up into the Fed decision but there is some angst ahead of today’s announcement in many markets. That’s usually a good thing as the Fed often delivers dovish surprises (though the bar for

Fundamental Overview Last Thursday, WSJ’s Timiraos published an article which seemed suggesting that a 50 bps cut was still being discussed. The market responded by raising 50 bps cut probabilities to around 40% from 13% before the news. Nick Timiraos is considered a Fed “insider”, so the market is attentive to all of his pieces

Bank of Canada’s Senior Deputy Governor Carolyn Rogers: Sees ongoing work to do on inflationCore measures of CPI should decline This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

Prior +2.6%Core CPI +2.8% vs +2.8% y/y prelimPrior +2.9% No changes to the initial estimates for the August readings. It just reaffirms the slow path of the disinflation process in recent months, keeping the ECB on their toes. The central bank has said that they will pause rate cuts in October, while gauging the anticipated

Repositioning looks to be the theme in global markets today. Treasury yields are rising, which indicates worry about the Fed cutting 25 bps instead of 50 bps. However the US dollar is weakening, which indicates the opposite. It all points to more of a position squaring trade. On top of that, today’s UK core CPI

Asia-Pacific (APAC)’s online trading and fintech industry elites congregated at the iconic Centara Grand & Bangkok Convention Centre at Central World in Bangkok on 17 September, to honour the most innovative and truly the best Brokers and Technology Providers in an official ceremony organised by Ultimate Fintech. The UF AWARDS APAC Ceremony marked the conclusion

FBS, a leading global broker, presents an overview of financial market trends in the context of the 2024 US presidential elections. FBS financial market analysts particularly underscore the rising investment potential of Bitcoin in the context of Harris-Trump uncertainty. FBS analysts highlight that financial markets are experiencing turbulent times and investors are looking for safe-haven

Every forex broker must grapple with brand development, while maintaining a level of quality and service that sets it apart from competitors. Of course, countless strategies exist to achieve this goal, however the best way to showcase one’s brand is securing the Finance Magnates Annual Awards (FMAA). After much anticipation surrounding the nominations, voting is

Fundamental Overview Yesterday, we got some more positive US data releases as the US retail sales came out a touch better than expected and the industrial production data beat forecasts erasing the hurricane related weakness in July. Despite that, the market is still pricing a 63% probability for a 50 bps cut at today’s decision.

The major indices are closing with mixed but modest changes. The S&P did trade to a new record intraday high level, above 5669,. but stalled just above that level at 5670.81. The buyers turned to sellers. After trading negative into the last hour of trading, buying at the close pushed the index higher. The index

The AUDUSD has been stepping higher over the last five or so trading days and in the process has used a series of key moving averages that have increased the bullish bias and provided the roadmap for the move to the upside. 5 days ago, the price based against the 200-day moving average and moved

Fundamental Overview Copper has been on a sustained downtrend since reaching its peak in May. A lot of the weakness has been attributed to the struggling economic recovery in China. Copper is sensitive to the manufacturing cycle, and after a pickup in the first half of the year, we’ve been seeing a notable pullback as

More to come.. This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

Headlines: Cable nudges up to 1.3200 after sticky UK inflation dataUK inflation data bolsters odds of BOE keeping bank rate unchanged tomorrowWhat are the main events for today?There will be disappointment one way or another come the end of todayECB’s Villeroy says likely to continue with rate cutsUK August CPI +2.2% vs +2.2% y/y expectedEurozone

Heavy is the head that wears the crown. The Fed has a very, very big decision to make today. A rate cut is all but confirmed but the major question is by how much? They’ve been suggesting a likelihood of moving by 25 bps since Jackson Hole but market players aren’t listening all too intently.

Prior +1.4%Market index 266.8 vs 233.7 priorPurchase index 146.1 vs 138.6 priorRefinance index 941.4 vs 757.8 prior30-year mortgage rate 6.15% vs 6.29% prior A further drop in the average rate of the most popular US home loan sparked a big jump in refinancing activity in the past week. And that led to the surge in

The USDJPY is ticking above the 200-hour MA at 141.988. The next target comes in at 38.2% retracement of the move down from the September high. That level comes in at 142.485. Move above that, and the door opens for a move toward 143.38 to 143.67 where the 50% is found. , This article was

A JP Morgan strategist says a Federal Reserve rate cut is not neededAustralia CPI preview – CBA expect “Headline inflation in August back within RBA’s target”FOMC forecasts from 28 bank analysts. Forecasts for today’s cut, dot plots, 2024 and 2025People’s Bank of China will be setting interest rates this week and nextAustralian August Monthly CPI

A lot of Hezballah pagers blew up yesterday but what will it do to the oil market? Some people thought oil might surge but the chart and price action does not care about what we think. Here is oil technical analysis I see but please do your own research and trade at your own risk.

German DAX futures -0.1%UK FTSE futures +0.2% European equities will have to fend for themselves today, after the gains from yesterday were followed up by a more tepid session in US trading. The S&P 500 and Dow both closed flat while US futures today are also not hinting at much thus far. It’s all about

Prior +2.2%Core CPI +3.6% vs +3.5% y/y expectedPrior +3.3% Coming into today, traders had been pricing in ~63% odds of the BOE keeping the bank rate unchanged tomorrow. And the inflation numbers here pretty much solidifies the notion that they will keep rates unchanged in September. That especially since services inflation ticked back higher from

People’s Bank of China USD/CNY reference rate is due around 0115 GMT. The People’s Bank of China (PBOC), China’s central bank, is responsible for setting the daily midpoint of the yuan (also known as renminbi or RMB). The PBOC follows a managed floating exchange rate system that allows the value of the yuan to fluctuate

A couple of details from the report for September: Private consumption shows movements of picking up recentlyBusiness investment shows movements of picking upIndustrial production shows movements of picking upThe employment situation shows movements of improvementExports are almost flatConsumer prices have been rising moderately This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meets today, Wednesday, September 18, 2024. at 1800 GMT, 1400 US Eastern time Earlier: Most analysts expect a 25bp interest rate cut from the Federal Reserve todayA 50bp Federal Reserve rate cut coming today? History says ‘No’. – Now, check this out. This is amazing work, collating comprehensive forecasts

The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meets today, Wednesday, September 18, 2024. at 1800 GMT, 1400 US Eastern time El Erain with the tweet suggesting pricing for the Fed cuts are too extreme. Earlier: Most analysts expect a 25bp interest rate cut from the Federal Reserve todayA 50bp Federal Reserve rate cut coming today? History

RBA Assistant Governor (Financial System) Jones is speaking at 9.20am Melbourne time: 2320 GMT1920 US Eastern time He is speaking at a Fintech event. I don’t expect much, if anything, on his views on the economy or monetary policy, but a heads up on the off chance. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at

A preview of the August CPI data due from Australia on September 25 from Commonwealth Bank of Australia. We expect the monthly CPI indicator to show inflation eased to 2.7%/yr in August, within the RBA’s headline inflation target. A large 16% /mth fall in electricity prices is the key expected driver. But disinflation in other

JPMorgan CEO Jamie Dimon was speaking at a conference on Tuesday. I didn’t hear a specific 25 or 50 from him, but he did say that the cut is “not going to be earth-shattering.” I guess that’s a tip for 25? Although 50 ain’t gonna shatter the earth either come to think of it. More

The pair was trading around 1.3160 prior to the UK CPI report here. But it is trading to fresh session highs of 1.3205 currently. Looking at the near-term chart above, it’s still not indicative of much. Buyers are in near-term control but there is some daily resistance around 1.3200 with the August high at 1.3266

The only notable event in the European session was the UK CPI report which came out basically in line with expectations across the board, although the Core Y/Y figure was a touch higher than forecasts. We will also have the Eurozone CPI, but given that it’s the Final reading, the market won’t care about it.

Eurostoxx flatGermany DAX +0.1%France CAC 40 flatUK FTSE -0.2%Spain IBEX +0.1%Italy FTSE MIB +0.1% US futures are also only up slightly around 0.1%, so it’s really not indicative of much. In FX, the pound is up slightly after the UK CPI report earlier here. Meanwhile, USD/JPY is keeping thereabouts at 141.70 since Asia trading mostly

The numbers via oilprice.com on Twitter: — Expectations I had seen centred on: Headline crude -0.5 mn barrelsDistillates +0.6 mn bblsGasoline +0.2 mn — This data point is from a privately-conducted survey by the American Petroleum Institute (API). It’s a survey of oil storage facilities and companiesThe official report is due Wednesday morning US time.

But the key focus in markets today is of course the FOMC meeting decision. Will it be a 25 bps or 50 bps rate cut? That is the question. As things stand, traders are still pricing in ~65% odds of a 50 bps rate cut for today. And therein lies the balance of risks ahead

Fundamental Overview Yesterday, we got some positive US data releases as the US retail sales came out a touch better than expected and the industrial production data beat forecasts erasing the hurricane related weakness in July. The data put some pressure on gold and we might see some profit-taking given that it’s unlikely that the

The US has been slowly refilling the strategic petroleum reserve but will look to accelerate that with a purchase of 6 million barrels, according to a Reuters report. The administration will announce the solicitation as soon as tomorrow, according to the report and it will be for delivery in early 2025. In 2022, the US

The People’s Bank of China set the onshore yuan (CNY) reference rate for the trading session ahead. USD/CNY is the onshore yuan. Its permitted to trade plus or minus 2% from this daily reference rate.CNH is the offshore yuan. USD /CNH has no restrictions on its trading range.A significantly stronger or weaker rate than expected

Israeli military officials via various Hebrew news channels stating full-blown war between Israel and Hezbollah appears imminent. That shouldn’t surprise anyone as the pager explosions were basically a declaration of war by Israel on Lebanon/Hezbollah. The thing is, I wonder if Hezbollah is so crippled that it’s not ready to fight and/or if Israel is

It’s all about the Fed today, and there isn’t anything too significant on the option expiries board to really influence price action in the meantime. There is a decent sized one for USD/JPY at 141.00 but we might not really revisit that level until we get to the FOMC meeting later. The pair is down

Japan trade data for August 2024 … dreadful misses for both exports and imports. The ‘adjusted’ trade balance (not shown in the screen shot above) is -0.6tln yen expected -0.96tlnprior -0.76tln yen Exports to: China +5.2% y/ythe EU -8.1% y/ythe US -0.7% y/y This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

A snippet via Seema Shah, chief global strategist at Principal Asset Management: “Since the late 1980s…25-basis-point cuts have become the norm, and 50 basis points have been the exception.” Only two rate-cutting cycles have begun with cuts greater than 25 basis points: January 2001, amid the dot-com bubble, and September 2007 during the sub-prime mortgage

There is plenty top come on the data agenda but none of it is higher-tier. Note that mainland Chinese markets reopen today after holidays on Monday and Tuesday. Hong Kong is closed today. This snapshot from the ForexLive economic data calendar, access it here. The times in the left-most column are GMT. The numbers in

The Bank of Japan meet this week, announcement due on Friday September 20. The Bank is not expected to hike rates again: Bank of Japan meeting this week – preview (no rate change expected) Ueda and his colleagues will be eyeing the data showing slowing export growth: Japan August exports +5.6% y/y (expected +10.0%) &

The Japanese Coast Guard give an alert to North Korea firing what could be a ballistic missile. In the olden days news like this would prompt rapid flows into USD and JPY. Now it’s pretty much ignored. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

Australia Westpac Leading Index for August 2024 -0.05% m/m prior –0.03% Westpac note, in summary: The six-month annualised growth rate in the Westpac-Melbourne Institute Leading Index, which indicates the likely pace of economic activity relative to trend three to nine months into the future, declined from +0.04% in July to -0.27% in August. Commodity price

Not so long ago, Germany was considered the engine of the EU economy. When things went wrong for other countries in the bloc, there was always the hope that Berlin would come to the rescue. But now, it seems that the safety net is slowly deflating: the country’s industrial production has fallen below 2017 levels,

This summary screenshot is via Reuters, showing the latest forecasts for the headline Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) decision due on Wednesday, September 18, 2024 (at 1800 GMT, 1400 US Eastern time) The latest from ‘FedWatch’ (market pricing) show 30-Day Fed Funds futures pricing favours a 50bp rate cut: 63% @ 50bp37% @ 25bp I’ve

US August retail sales control group +0.3% versus +0.3% expectedCanada August CPI 2.0% vs 2.1% expectedUS September NAHB home builder sentiment 41 vs 40 expectedUS July business inventories 0.4% versus 0.3% expectedUS August industrial production +0.8% vs +0.2% expectedUS treasury auctions off $13 billion of 20 year bonds at a high yield of 4.039%Canada August

It’s a Hong Kong public holiday for the day following the Chinese Mid-Autumn Festival Hong Kong Market is closed Both Northbound and Southbound Stock Connect trading is closed — China / Hong Kong Stock Connect is a mutual market access program that allows investors in mainland China and Hong Kong to trade and invest in

Reuters citing an unnamed source: US administration will seek up to 6 million barrels of oil for the Strategic Petroleum Reservewill announce the solicitation as soon as Wednesday to buy oil for delivery to the Bayou Choctaw site in Louisianafor delivery in the first few months of 2025 Department of Energy target price is $79.99

What do we make of the new dot plot on Wednesday? The Federal Reserve is due to release another edition of its forecasts around growth, inflation and — most importantly — where Fed funds are headed. At times, the market takes the dot plot as guidance on what the FOMC will do at future meetings,

Goldman Sachs anticipates the FOMC will implement a 25 basis point rate cut at its September meeting, viewing recent comments from Fed officials as indicative of a preference for this move over a larger cut. The focus will shift towards labor market risks, and the firm expects to see a median dot plot implying three

Prior was 279.5K (revised to 279.8K) There is some measure of give-back here after a strong July number but I can confidently say that the pipeline in Canada is drying up as the investor class has abandoned Canadian real estate. This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

Prior was 39Current sales 45 vs 44 priorProspective sales 27 vs 25 prior This is a sign that lower rates are starting to have some effect. This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

At the top of the hour, the US treasury will auction off their billion dollars of 20 year bonds. High Yield: Last: 4.16% Six-auction average: 4.512% Tail: The difference between the WI level and the high yield Last: -0.1bps Six-auction average: -1.3bps Bid-to-Cover: Last: 2.54x Six-auction average: 2.68x Dealer Participation: Last: 9.7% Six-auction average: 8.7%

Prior 0.3%Business inventories 0.4% vs 0.3% expectedRetail inventories ex-autos 0.5% vs 0.2% last month Sales: July distributive trade sales and manufacturers’ shipments: $1,880.7 billionIncrease from June 2024: 1.1%Increase from July 2023: 2.9% Inventories: July manufacturers’ and trade inventories: $2,574.9 billionIncrease from June 2024: 0.4%Increase from July 2023: 2.5% Inventories/Sales Ratio: July 2024 ratio: 1.37July 2023

The USDJPY at the start of the US session needed to get to and through the 100-hour MA to increase. the bullish bias. It did just that after better data gave the buyers to go-ahead to move away from the lows. Yesterday, the price moved to the lowest level going back to July, but moved

Prior month 2.5%(it came in as expected)CPI MoM -0.2% vs 0.0% expected.Prior MoM +0.4% Core measures: CPI Bank of Canada core YoY 1.5% vs 1.7% last monthCPI Bank of Canada core MoM -0.1% versus +0.3% last monthCore CPI MoM SA 0.1% versus 0.1% last monthMedian 2.3% versus 2.2% estimate. Last month 2.4%Trim 2.4% versus 2.5%

High Yield: 4.039% Last month: 4.16% Six-auction average: 4.512% WI level at the time of the auction: 4.019% Tail: +2.0 basis points Last month: -0.1bps Six-auction average: -1.3bps Bid-to-Cover: 2.51X Last month: 2.54x Six-auction average: 2.68x Dealer Participation: 18.6% Last month: 9.7% Six-auction average: 8.7% Direct Bidders: 16.3% Last month: 19.3% Six-auction average: 17.1% Indirect

The below is the eFX summary of a note via Nomura on the Fed and US dollar For bank trade ideas, check out eFX Plus. For a limited time, get a 7 day free trial, basic for $79 per month and premium at $109 per month. Get it here. — Synopsis: Nomura expects a 25

The Atlanta Fed GDPNow growth estimate was raised to 3% today from 2.5%. Now Goldman is also raising its estimate but only by 0.3% from the same 2.5%. They now see growth for Q3 at 2.8%. 2.8% or 3% and S&P/Dow at new record level, 50 basis points seems a stretch? Meanwhile the 10 year

Fundamental Overview Last Thursday, WSJ’s Timiraos published an article which seemed suggesting that a 50 bps cut was still being discussed. The market responded by raising 50 bps cut probabilities to around 40% from 13% before the news. Nick Timiraos is considered a Fed “insider”, so the market is attentive to all of his pieces

The GBPUSD move higher into the European session. However as the US data came out today, and it was better than expected, yields started to move higher, the dollar started to trade higher as well, and the technicals in the GBPUSD gave the sellers the go-ahead to push lower (higher USD) . That move lower

Relative monetary policy drives currencies’ exchange rates. Therefore, the market pays close attention whenever a central bank holds a meeting and updates its monetary policy stance. This week, three major central banks—the U.S. Federal Reserve (Fed), the Bank of England (BoE), and the Bank of Japan (BoJ)—will announce their verdicts on interest rates on Wednesday,

What a run in stock markets. The S&P 500 is up 35 points today, or 0.6%, in what’s on track to be the seventh day of gains and is only a fraction away from taking out the July all-time high of 5669. So it’s a seven-day winning streak and running into major resistance. That’s a

Fundamental Overview Last Thursday, WSJ’s Timiraos published an article which seemed suggesting that a 50 bps cut was still being discussed. The market responded by raising 50 bps cut probabilities to around 40% from 13% before the news. Nick Timiraos is considered a Fed “insider”, so the market is attentive to all of his pieces

Bitcoin has climbed above the September high in a strong turnaround from yesterday’s selloff. It’s up 5.3% or $3000 in the best gain in a week. Bitcoin has struggled to keep pace with the improving risk appetite in September and is well-below the summer highs as US stocks flirt with records. Bitcoin has had a

This one isn’t going to make life easier for the Fed doves. The Atlanta Fed’s Q3 GDPNow tracker rose to 3.0% today from 2.5%. After recent releases from the Treasury’s Bureau of the Fiscal Service, the US Census Bureau, the US Bureau of Labor Statistics, and the Federal Reserve Board of Governors, the nowcasts of

The Dow is still on pace for record high levels today, but the S&P backed off after trading to a new intraday high today. The old high was at 5669.67 from back on July 16. The high price today extended to 5670.82 before backing off. The current price is trading at 5655.43. That is stil

Fundamental Overview Last Thursday, WSJ’s Timiraos published an article which seemed suggesting that a 50 bps cut was still being discussed. The market responded by raising 50 bps cut probabilities to around 40% from 13% before the news. Nick Timiraos is considered a Fed “insider”, so the market is attentive to all of his pieces

Prior -0.2%Retail sales $710.8 billion versus $709.7 billion priorRetail sales +0.1% versus -0.2% expectedPrior m/m sales +1.0% (revised to +1.1%)Retail sales YoY +2.1% versus +2.7% priorEx autos +0.1% versus +0.2% expectedPrior ex autos +0.4% priorControl group +0.3% versus +0.3% expectedEx autos and gas +0.2% versus +0.4% priorFull report Heading into the report, market was putting

On the day: STOXX 600 +0.7%German DAX +0.5%Francis CAC +0.6%UK’s FTSE 100 +0.5%Spain’s IBEX +1.1%Italy’s FTSE MIB +0.6% Those are some decent gains, though I would have liked to have seen a better finish as a good portion of the gains evaporated late. This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

The WSJ is reporting that JPM is in talks with Apple to take over credit card business from Golman. The program has over 12 million users and roughly $17 billion in outstanding balances. Apple has been seeking a new issuer after deciding to part ways with Goldman Sachs, the current issuer, last year. JPMorgan is

Price index at $3883Whole milk powder +1.5% This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

The changes among the day remain light, with dollar pairs all holding within 10 pips change currently. It’s just one of those days where even if there are any moves, one shouldn’t look too much into it. At this point, it’s all about the Fed tomorrow. USD/JPY was a bit more volatile in Asia, trading

Last month, July retail sales nudged up by 1.0% and beat estimates here. Ten out of the thirteen categories showed an increase, so that helped. But this time around, the estimate is for headline retail sales to show a 0.2% decline. That said, ex-autos is estimated to increase by 0.2% and the more important control

An incredible attack occurred in Lebanon today with 2800 members of Hezbollah and other Iranian-linked individuals wounded and 200 in critical condition. The pagers they were using exploded at the same time in what was surely some kind of long-planned attack. Hezbollah had been using cell phones to coordinate but evidently switched to pagers due

The US data this morning came in better than expected which has softened the Fed expectations for tomorrow a bit, but it is still leaning toward 50 bps. The retail sales data today has GDP looking toward 3% for the 3Q. That is pretty good. The question is “Has inflation – and expectations for inflation

Today we have quite a few top-tier economic releases. In the European session we just have the German ZEW which is expected at 17.1 vs. 19.2 prior. The most important releases will be in the American session when we will get the Canadian CPI, the US Retail Sales and the US Industrial Production. The US

The major US indices are trading higher at the start of the trading day. Retail sales were better than expectations. That might mean the Fed might lean toward a 25 basis points but it also means that the economy is not as bad as hoped. The Dow industrial average closed at a record level yesterday

Prior was -0.6% (revised to -0.9%)Capacity utilization 78.0% vs 77.9% expectedPrior utilization 77.8% (revised to 77.4%)Manufacturing output +0.9% vs +0.3% expectedPrior manufacturing output -0.3% (revised to -0.7%) The negative revisions take some of the shine off this report but it’s still a a good one. In July, Hurricane Beryl likely depressed production and this is

The WSJ’s Nick Timiraos is out with a tweet that references his earlier Fed preview. There is no leak here. “The Fed faces a finely balanced set of considerations over whether to cut by 25 or 50 basis points at its meeting that begins today,” he writes. The argument for cutting 50 is based on

Sector Overview The US stock market is seeing significant gains today, with a notable emphasis on the technology sector. Microsoft (MSFT) is up by 1.74%, while Amazon (AMZN) shows the most remarkable increase in consumer cyclicals, soaring by 1.32%. Nvidia (NVDA) adds to the momentum with a rise of 1.68% in the semiconductor space, marking

Major currencies aren’t up to much today, with the dollar keeping steadier after its fall yesterday. USD/JPY did bounce back from lows under 140.00 to around 140.70 now, with the high earlier touching 141.25. There’s still much volatility in the pair compared to the others but this week, it’s all about the Fed. The bond

Eyes are on the US retail sales report today, and the ‘control group’ in particular that excludes the volatile components on food, energy and building materials. The consensus is for a +0.3% reading to match the prior month. Going into the data, the market is pricing in a 67% probability of a 50 basis point

I’ve noted this already, but ICYMI. China and South Korea are out againJapan is open after its holiday on Monday. As an aside, Hong Kong will be closed tomorrow. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

Today’s Canadian CPI report highlights how far the Bank of Canada has fallen behind the curve. Virtually the lone sources of inflation are mortgage interest and shelter, which is due to laggy rent calculations. Overall inflation is at 2.0%, hitting the target for the first time since 2021 but a deeper dive shows a weaker

That is one of the key charts to watch in markets at the moment. 2-year yields remain heavy close to the 3.55% mark but bond players will have to wait for vindication from the Fed tomorrow still. Besides that, 10-year yields are seen around 3.62% at roughly its lowest levels this year currently. In FX,

Eurostoxx +0.5%Germany DAX +0.5%France CAC 40 +0.6%UK FTSE +0.7%Spain IBEX +0.8%Italy FTSE MIB +0.5% The risk mood today is also in a decent spot, with S&P 500 futures now up 0.15%. Nasdaq futures are up 0.27% while Dow futures are up 0.11% currently. In FX, major currencies are still not up to much with dollar

Will the US retail sales later mess up the Fed odds even more?Dollar holds lightly changed on the dayGold rally stalls as traders wait on Fed decisionGermany September ZEW survey current conditions -84.5 vs -80.0 expectedEuropean indices hold higher to start the dayWhat are the main events for today?Eurostoxx futures +0.5% in early European tradingFX

The US retail sales report wasn’t a game-changer for tomorrow’s FOMC decision but it offers some angst for those who are expecting a 50 basis point cut. Sales rose 0.1% compared to -0.2% expected in a sign that the consumer is just fine. The control group, which excludes volatile components on gasoline, autos and building

Following recent success at the Finance Magnates Pacific Summit in Australia earlier this month, multi-asset Forex and CFD broker, FP Markets, was presented with three coveted Global Forex Awards at a ceremony held at the La Caleta in Limassol on Thursday 12 September. FP Markets was voted ‘Best Value Broker – Global’ for the sixth

Kickstart the FX trading day for September 17 with a technical look at the EURUSD, USDJPY and GBPUSD. Included today is a bonus look at the USDCAD after Canada released lower-than-expected CPI data, and the US reported better-than-expected retail sales data. The EURUSD has moved down and away from a swing area between 1.1131 and

As the North American session begins, the AUD is the strongest and the CAD is the weakest. Having said that, the top to bottom ranking is scrunched together with little separating the winners and losers. The market is awaiting key data is my guess. Today, the FOMC meeting starts, but it won’t end (well they

German DAX futures +0.5%UK FTSE futures +0.6% Apple shares weighed on the tech-heavy Nasdaq in Wall Street trading but the Dow closed at a fresh record high. The breakdown for the latter can be found below (h/t @ Yahoo Finance). So, European equities just have some catching up to do. That as the mood music

Gold jumped higher in trading last week to fresh record highs but the latest leg is falling just shy of the $2,600 mark. Buyers are still in control but it looks like we might have to wait until the Fed tomorrow before deciding on where to go from here. As traders step up bets for

Good morning, afternoon and evening all. Any charts, technical analysis, trade ideas, thoughts, views, ForexLive traders would like to share and discuss with fellow ForexLive traders, please do so: This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

Prior -77.3Economic sentiment 3.6 vs 17.0 expectedPrior 19.2 German investor sentiment dropped in September with the outlook also tumbling lower on the month. It’s a setback to hopes for a recovery in the economic situation. ZEW notes that there is now a noticeable decline in economic expectations. And that most respondents have already factored the

More from Japan Finance Minister Suzuki – analysing the impact of the strengthening yenBlackRock is wary on Chinese equities – measured policy support is not enoughUBS says a Fed rate cut is ‘long overdue’, but a 50bp cut might be taken as panicIs the bond market going to strong arm the Fed into a 50bp

Japan finance minister Suzuki Forex fluctuations have both merits and demerits on the Japanese economyWill respond appropriately after analyzing impact of forex movesRapid fx moves undesirableImportant for currencies to move a stable manner, reflecting fundamentals USD/JPY is up from lows around 139.60 on Monday. It hit above 141.20 earlier in the session here. Suzuki’s cage

Blackrock comments on China echoing broader market views: The People’s Bank of China has been cutting rates but it’s not in the same boat as the Fed. It’s facing weak consumer demand, excess production capacity and deflation – based on broad measures of inflation – that could become entrenched. The lack of fiscal and other

Fundamental Overview Last Thursday, WSJ’s Timiraos published an article which seemed suggesting that a 50 bps cut was still being discussed. The market responded by raising 50 bps cut probabilities to around 40% from 13% before the news. Nick Timiraos is considered a Fed “insider”, so the market is attentive to all of his pieces

UBS make the case that a Fed rate cut is anticipated, and has been for some time, given the ongoing decline in inflation pressures in the US. However, say analysts at the bank, a reduction of more than 25 basis points appears unlikely. Although the Fed is behind the curve in lowering rates, a more

New Zealand Treasury report, in summary: Indicators for June quarter GDP point to a drop in economic activity. We anticipate the economy contracted by 0.4% in the quarter, down from a forecast of 0.2% growth at our Budget Update. Economic data has been weak despite a period of record migrationled population growth. However, with migration

Via the latest weekly note from BlackRock Investment Institute, says markets overly excited about Fed rate cuts: Markets expect the Fed to cut rates sharply – and we think this pricing is overdone. U.S. inflation has slowed as pandemic disruptions have faded and due to a temporary immigration boost to the workforce. We see inflation

This is a political call, nothing else. The three: Elizabeth Warren (D-Mass.), Sheldon Whitehouse (D-R.I.) John Hickenlooper (D-Colo.) sent a letter to Federal Reserve Chair Powell. “It is clearly the time for the Fed to cut rates. In fact, it may be too late: your delays have threatened the economy and left the Fed behind

There are a couple to take note of, as highlighted in bold. The first one is for EUR/USD at the 1.1125 level. It rests at the 38.2/61.8 Fib retracement level of the swing lower since August, so there’s that. But if anything else, the expiries could just keep price action stickier until we get to

Empire Fed Sept manufacturing survey +11.5 vs -4.75 expectedCanada July manufacturing sales +1.4% vs +1.1% expectedECB’s Lane: Incoming data on wages and profits have been in line with expectationsECB’s Kazaks: Interest rates will continue to be loweredWH Brainard: It is now important to safeguard progress in US labor marketFormer NY Fed Pres Dudley says it’s

It’s a very sparse data agenda. China and South Korea remain closedJapan reopens after its holiday Monday As a ps. Hong Kong will be closed tomorrow. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

Reuters reporting on Goldman Sachs reiterating its optimistic outlook on gold prices. GS cite: central bank demandimminent interest rate cut from the U.S. Federal Reserve “While we see some tactical downside to gold prices under our economists’ base case of a 25bp Fed cut on Wednesday, we reiterate our long gold trading recommendation and our

UBS are arguing the retail sales data could tip the balance between a 25bp and 50bp rate cut: retail sales and industrial production data … weakness in these could potentially influence the Fed decision to cut its Fed Funds rate by 50bp instead of 25bp I am not so sure that one data point (or

Goldman Sachs’ projections, citing Fed rate cuts as a key driver: end 2024 target 5600 points6-month target 570012-month target 6000 points GS expect the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) to cut by 200 basis points by the end of 2025 – Last I have from GS is expecting a 25bp cut this week. This article

Headline is here from earlier: Microsoft (MSFT) has announced a new US$60bn share repurchase program More detail now, via MarketWatch. In brief: increase in quarterly dividend by 8 cents, or 10% @ 83 cents a shareto shareholders of record as of November 21new $60 billion buyback programs the third largest among all U.S. companies this

Before Nick Timiraos, the WSJ Fedwatcher was Jon Hilsenrath. He left the WSJ last year but is still watching the Federal Reserve and weighed in today, saying the Fed will cut by 50 basis points on Wednesday. The Fed is on what I call an “Express Train” to a neutral interest rate. I expect it

I’ve posted on this earlier, but ICYMI and have rocked up for the daily mid-rate setting from the People’s Bank of China, I have some bad news. China is out on holiday today, there will be no mid-rate set for USD/CNY.South Korea is also on holidays today. Hong Kong will be on holidays tomorrow. Offshore

Comments from Suzuki are here from earlier: Japan finance minister Suzuki says rapid FX moves are undesirable Reuters adds a little more: government will continue to analyse the impact of the strengthening yen on the economy and respond appropriatelysaid the stronger yen could affect the economy both positively and negatively through various channels, such as

The Bank of Japan are meeting on September 19 and 20. The announcement will be some time in the 0230 GMT to 0330 GMT time window on Friday (they’re is no firmly set time): 2230 – 2330 US Eastern time The latest rhetoric we have heard from the BoJ has been hawkish (well, relatively, hawkish

Markets are now pricing an above 50% probability (well above) for a 50bp FOMC rate cut on Wednesday. Consider: 1. Is the FOMC going to think that if they don’t cut by 50bp it’ll trigger huge financial market volatility? 2. Or is the FOMC behind it all, drip feeding info to bond insiders to provide

Morgan Stanley analysts on the balancing act at the Fed: In the very short-term, we think the best case scenario for equities this week is that the Fed can deliver a 50bp rate cut without triggering either growth concerns or any remnants of the yen carry trade unwind—i.e., purely an “insurance cut” ahead of macro

Microsoft (MSFT) has announced a new USD 60bln share repurchase program also, quarterly dividend increase of 10% to US$0.83/share This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

The investing world has largely given up on China as a growth driver this year and the outlook for 2025 continues to dim, with officials showing no urgency to turn the tide. On the weekend, new house prices fell for the 15th consecutive month. And not y/y drop but monthly. The last three months of

The US major stock indices are closing mixed. The Dow industrial average and closing at a record closing level. The S&P index is closing around 0.6% from a record closing level and is now up 6 consecutive days. The NASDAQ index is closing lower and snapped a 5-day winning streak. Shares of Apple led the

The ECB cut rates last week but the market sees them holding steady in October with just a 28% implied probability of a cut. I think that would be a mistake. This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence rose 1.8 pts to an 8 week high.ANZ says it was a broad based rise. 84.1 is still deep in pessimism but I guess we’ll take it. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

The price of WTI crude oil is settling at $70.09. The low for the day reached $68.68. The high for the day extended up to $70.66. Technically, the price low today stalled right near its 200-hour moving average. That moving average is currently at $68.62. The subsequent move to the upside also moved back above

The days of high yielding safe investments may be over for a generation. Jamie Dimon is continuing to warn about inflation but the bond market has moved on. Breakeven rates are below 2%, implying that the Fed is more likely to undershoot its target and nominal rates continue to fall, despite swelling deficits. US 10-year

Sector Overview The stock market today presents a mixed bag with distinct sector performances as reflected on the heatmap. Technology is facing challenges while healthcare and energy sectors are showing resilience. Technology: Sectors within tech are under pressure. Microsoft (MSFT) is down slightly by 0.12%, and major setbacks are seen with Apple (AAPL), dropping 2.75%,

Closing changes in Europe: Stoxx 600 -0.2%German DAX -0.4%Francis CAC -0.3%UK’s FTSE 100 flatSpain’s IBEX +0.4%Italy’s FTSE MIB flat This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

Negotiated wage growth will remain high and volatile over the remainder of the yearA gradual approach to dialing back restrictiveness will be appropriate if the incoming data are in line with the baseline projectionWe should retain optionality about the speed of adjustment Lane is putting 50 bps on the table here but it will take

Fundamental Overview Last Thursday, we finally got the breakout in gold after a softer than expected US PPI report. That was kind of a strange move but eventually the momentum picked up and we got the rally into new all-time highs. Late Thursday we have also got WSJ’s Timiraos publishing an article suggesting that a

BofA advises against reacting to any initial hawkish market responses following the September FOMC meeting. They anticipate a 25bps rate cut and expect the Fed’s dot plot to exceed market expectations, but expect Powell’s tone to remain dovish. Key Points: Market Uncertainty: High Uncertainty: The market is highly uncertain about the September FOMC meeting, reflecting

I could probably count a dozen instances in the past week or so of economists I respect saying the Fed should cut 50 basis points but probably will only cut 25 bps. At some point, that chorus grows so loud that it tips the balance. We’re likely at that point now with the Fed funds

WH economic advisor Lael Brainard is no the news wires saying: It is now important to safeguard progress in US labor market.US economy has reached important turning point in fight against inflation.Inflation is coming back down close to normal levels.It is critical to continue work to address affordability challenges and create opportunities for working families.

Rate cuts by year-end Fed: 118 bps (59% probability of 50 bps rate cut at the upcoming meeting) 2025: 250 bps ECB: 39 bps (72% probability of no change at the upcoming meeting) 2025: 157 bps BoE: 54 bps (61% probability of no change at the upcoming meeting) 2025: 172 bps BoC: 67 bps (76%

The USDJPY moved to the lowest level since July 31 2023 after falling below the end of December low at 140.248. The low price extended to a somewhat random level at 139.570 before rotating back to the upside. That move has now taken the price back above the end of December low at 140.248. It

As the North American session begins, the AUD is the strongest followed closely by the GBP, and the USD is the weakest. The Federal Reserve will meet on Tuesday and again on Wednesday before announcing their rate decision on Tuesday at 2 PM ET. A press conference will commence at 2:30 with Fed Chair Powell.

Earlier news: Gunshots fired “in the vicinity” of Trump – Trump is unharmed The key headline news is that Trump is unhurt, thankfully. There are conflicting reports re the shooting: CNN reports that the gunfire at Trump’s golf club were intended to hit TrumpNY Post reports the shots were fired in relation to an ‘outside

The Canadian housing market is not looking healthy, particularly the Toronto condo market. The government is reacting with finance minister Chrystia Freeland extending 30-year loan amortization to all first-time home buyers and buyers of newly-built homes, all with CMHC insurance. Canada has gone back-and-forth on 30-year mortgages since the financial crisis. 2008: The government reduced

We’ve seen this pattern a few times recently: Positioning data released late on Friday shows extremely negative positioning in oil and on Monday there is a squeeze higher. Unfortunately, the gains haven’t lasted, at least not recently. There are already signs of that with WTI rising as high as $70.70 but now pulling back to

The USDCAD has been consolidating over the last 4-5 trading days. After reaching the high on Tuesday and Wednesday last week, the price has seen lower highs including today’s high (so far at least). However, the lows since midday Tuesday has bottomed near 1.3564. That is now just above the rising 200 hour MA at

The AUDUSD on Friday, found support buyers at the 200-hour MA (currently at 0.66949). Earlier on Friday, sellers leaned against the 100 bar MA on the 4-hour chart at 0.6733. Today, the buyers took control once again near the 200 bar MA in the early Asian session, and pushed the price higher.. IN the early

Prior +1.3%HICP +1.2% vs +1.3% y/y prelimPrior +1.6% Core annual inflation is seen stable at 1.9% and it has been relatively steady over the last few months. That’s a somewhat positive takeaway but this trend is still not yet observed in Europe’s largest economy i.e. Germany. This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

The strongest NY Fed manufacturing PMI since April 2022 helped to lift USD/JPY off the floor. The pair touched as low as 139.59 today but rose around 40 pips on the PMI and has continued to track higher, rising to 140.55. Aside from JPY, the US dollar is broadly lower with the euro, pound and

Greg Ip is the chief economics commentator for The Wall Street Journal (gated). He has weighed in on the FOMC decision coming up on Wednesday, September 18: The Federal Reserve’s interest-rate decision this week looks more difficult than it should be. The real question isn’t how much to cut, but where rates ought to be.

The last two trading days in the NZDUSD have developed a pattern. That pattern is to ping-pong between the 100-bar moving average on a 4-hour chart on the topside (currently at 0.61967), and the 100-hour moving average on the downside at 0.61565. In between sits the 200-hour moving average at 0.61698. Traders are leaning on

F In the kickstart video for September 16, I take a technical look at the 3 major currency pair vs the USD – the EURUSD, USDJPY and the GBPUSD. This week, the US Fed, Bank of England and the Bank of Japan will all meet. At their last meetings the BOE cut rates by 25

Services inflation is still resisting for nowOur main concern is services inflation as suchWe don’t have a pre-determined path for ratesWe will decide on a meeting by meeting basis These aren’t anything new and it just reaffirms the policy path that the ECB is on currently. This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

It’s been quite a turn for former New York Fed President Bill Dudley. Back in late May, he was calling for the Federal Reserve to hike rates further but now he’s saying they should be cutting by 50 basis points. The two objectives of the Fed’s dual mandate — price stability and maximum sustainable employment

This will keep market players on their toes in the days ahead, especially the Fed decision. USD/JPY is on the brink of a break under 140.00 and 2-year Treasury yields might be threatening a fall to its lowest in two years. Meanwhile, gold is surging to fresh record highs as broader markets are still taking

US stocks are mixed to start the trading week. The Dow is higher (and trading at a new all-time high), but the broader S&P and NASDAQ indices are lower. Recall that last week both of those indices rose each of the trading days for the week. That came after sharp declines the prior week. The

The Reserve Bank of New Zealand has published a new ‘Analytical Note’ that seeks to assess monetary policy surprises and how they impact on financial market instruments. Material monetary policy surprises are defined as instances where market pricing for the OCR immediately prior to an announcement is more than 5 basis points different from the

A busy week lies ahead in terms of economic events, but Monday kicks off slowly with no significant scheduled releases. On Tuesday, the highlight will be the Canadian inflation data, followed by the U.S. retail sales m/m figures. Wednesday brings inflation data from the U.K., alongside building permits, housing starts, and the most anticipated event

Headlines: Dollar remains pinned down to start the new weekMajor central bank decisions to dominate the agenda in trading this weekECB’s de Guindos: Our projections show inflation will hover around 2% by end of 2025ECB’s Kažimír: Will almost surely wait until December for next rate cutEurozone July trade balance €21.2 billion vs €22.3 billion priorItaly

Fundamental Overview Late Thursday, around 1:00 PM ET, WSJ’s Timiraos published an article which seemed suggesting that a 50 bps cut was still being discussed. The market responded by raising 50 bps cut probabilities to around 40% from 13% before the news. Nick Timiraos is considered a Fed “insider”, so the market is attentive to

Japanese markets are closed today for Respect for the Aged Day. Chinese markets are closed today, and tomorrow, for the Mid-Autumn Festival. New Zealand, Australia, Hong Kong and Singapore markets remain open. – Even with Japan closed the yen is likely to sweing around This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

Fundamental Overview Late Thursday, around 1:00 PM ET, WSJ’s Timiraos published an article which seemed suggesting that a 50 bps cut was still being discussed. The market responded by raising 50 bps cut probabilities to around 40% from 13% before the news. Nick Timiraos is considered a Fed “insider”, so the market is attentive to

Prior 0.0% Looking at the breakdown, producer prices rose by 0.6% on the month but was offset by a 0.5% drop in import prices. This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

Prior was -2.1%Manufacturing sales ex-autos +1.6% vs -1.6% priorSales at $71.0 billion vs $69.6 billion priorSales -1.1% y/y vs -1.8% y/y priorTotal inventory levels +0.9% vs +0.1% priorInventory to sales 1.73Unfilled orders +0.6% vs -0.8% prior This is a good number and a nice rebound but inventories are swelling. This article was written by Adam

Japan is on holiday today, but that is irrelevant to yen buyers. USD/JPY to its lowest in 12 months, without fresh news nor data to drive it (none is needed, as I’ve been saying for a while now): The USD is lower pretty much across the board also. Even AUD, which had been troubled by

Prior €22.3 billion Comparing to last year, the euro area trade balance is showing a surplus of roughly €128 billion from January to July. And that compares to the roughly €4 billion surplus only in the same period last year. Energy price developments are of course a big factor, leading to a drop in imports.

Analysts at Bank of America are not expecting clarity on the Federal Reserve’s rate path ahead from the Summary of Economic Projections (SEthat’ll be published on Wednesday alongside the rate cut decision. Nor are they expecting much guidance from Federal Reserve Chair Powell’s pres conference. BoA say that there is much uncertainty over the outlook

General business conditions 11.5 versus -4.7 priorBest reading since April 2022New orders 9.4 versus -7.9 priorShipments 17.9 versus 0.3 priorUnfilled orders 2.1 versus -7.4 priorDelivery times -1.1 versus -3.2 priorInventories 0.0 versus -10.6 priorPrices paid 23.2 versus 23.4 priorPrices received 7.4 versus 8.5 priorNumber of employees -5.7 versus -6.7 priorAverage employee workweek 2.9 versus -17.8

It may be a holiday in Japan and China but that hasn’t dampened the trading mood to start the week so far. The dollar is pushed lower as we look towards European trading, with USD/JPY in particular testing the 140.00 mark. The low earlier touched 139.94 and marks the lowest level since July last year.

The greenback is the laggard in trading today and is being pushed lower in European morning trade. USD/JPY is the standout as it nudges under the 140.00 mark but it’s not the only pair on the move. GBP/USD is up 0.5% to near 1.3200 and AUD/USD also up 0.5% to 0.6740 currently. Meanwhile, EUR/USD is

There aren’t really any to take note of on the day. As such, trading sentiment will rely more on the positioning flows in the run up to the FOMC meeting later in the week. The dollar is under pressure now with yields pinned lower and that will continue to be the key drivers in play

UBS analysts have reaffirm their bullish outlook on gold, pointing to its value as a hedge against macroeconomic and geopolitical uncertainties: maintains a target price of $2,700/oz by mid-2025 In brief from the UBS report: Gold has jumped by 23% in 2024, to its highest ever price, due to lower US yield expectations and diversification

Domestic sight deposits CHF 458.2 bn vs CHF 447.3 bn prior That’s the highest reading for total sight deposits since the middle of May this year. And that perhaps suggest the SNB might be in the market to rein in the strength in the franc. That would not be too surprising as they have dubbed

It would take a significant shift in the outlook for the ECB to cut in OctoberVery little new information in the pipeline before October meetingThere is no rush to cut ratesThe safest approach is to wait for the outlook to become clearer All this is very much a given now and they have guided markets

UBS says gold is its “Most Preferred” in its global asset allocationWSJ opinion piece argues the Fed should cut by a 50bp, not 25BoA analysts are not expecting much clarity from the FOMC this weekICYMI – China quietly slipped out very weak data over the weekendReminder – there is no reference rate setting for the

German DAX futures flatUK FTSE futures flat US futures aren’t up to much as well, keeping flattish overall to start the session. The risk mood is more tentative as market players are eyeing the Fed decision later this week as the main event. But even so, the dollar is holding softer in the major currencies

Data from China for August economic activity was terrible. Weak consumption was reflected in very slow retail sales growth. A previous bright spot, industrial production, decelerated also. Youth unemployment remained wedged at 17.1% Home prices slumped at their sharpest rate in a year. My post from the weekend included bizarrely upbeat comments from China’s National

Gold keeps on rising, no end in sight – especially with ongoing central bank rate cuts. I posted this earlier, with other factors supportive for the metal: UBS says gold is its “Most Preferred” in its global asset allocation This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

The pair is testing waters last seen back in July last year. The dip below 140.00 today is threatening to firmly take out the low from December last year on the daily chart. And from a psychological perspective, a firm break below 140.00 itself will keep sellers very much in control to start the new

We had terrible data out of China over the weekend: China August: Retail sales +2.1% y/y (expected +2.5) Industrial production +4.5% y/y (4.8) There won’t be a response from Chinese stocks as markets are closed there today and tomorrow: Chinese and Japanese markets are closed today, Monday, September 16, 2024, for holidays As for today’s

As it’s usually the case for Mondays, today is going to be a boring one on the data front as we don’t have anything on the agenda. The main event of the week is of course the FOMC decision on Wednesday. The market pricing is now more in favour of a 50 bps cut with

The key us data this week is on Tuesday, with the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) announcement following the next day. UBS are eyeing the retail sales and industrial production data, saying that weakness in these could potentially influence the Fe decd to cut its Fed Funds rate by 50bp instead of 25bp. UBS says

Eurostoxx -0.2%Germany DAX -0.3%France CAC 40 -0.2%UK FTSE -0.3%Spain IBEX -0.1%Italy FTSE MIB -0.2% The start of the session is turning interesting with USD/JPY inching back below the 140.00 mark again. That comes as bond yields are staying pressured and the dollar also softening across the board. US futures are also down slightly now, with

Good morning, afternoon and evening all. Any charts, technical analysis, trade ideas, thoughts, views, ForexLive traders would like to share and discuss with fellow ForexLive traders, please do so: This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

Reports surrounding the shooting are still sketchy and we await further information. Was does seem to be clear is that Trump is unhurt, safe and well. Thankfully. Indicative rates, little change from late Friday: EUR/USD 1.1081USD/JPY 140.75GBP/USD 1.3127USD/CHF 0.8474USD/CAD 1.3596AUD/USD 0.6709NZD/USD 0.6158 Usual warning … on a Monday morning, market liquidity is very thin until

Data via property website Rightmove in the UK September average asking prices for homes increased by 0.8%, double the average for the time of year in the series and the biggest for the month since 2016. -1.5 August For the y/y +1.2% prior +0.8% Rightmove cited the market getting a boost from a new government

Just a reminder to all that if you are trading emini US equity futures on the CME the September contract expires this week. There is a lot going on so you may (probably not) have been distracted. Firstly, if you are new to all this, check out: Understanding Futures Expiration & Contract Roll Alternatively, if

Both China and Japan are closed today, Monday, September 16, 2024: Chinese and Japanese markets are closed today, Monday, September 16, 2024, for holidays As a ps. South Korea is closed today also. China will also be closed tomorrow, Tuesday, September 17, 2024. We’ll not be getting a USD/ CNY reference rate setting from the

Trump Media’s stock trades on the Nasdaq Composite. It surged in price on Friday after Trump announced he won’t be selling shares in the company. That spike was so big that it triggered two five-minute trading pauses. Such pauses are routine, and are designed to provide a cooling period. They happen dozens of times a

BNZ – BusinessNZ Performance of Services Index (PSI) for August 2024 is 45.4 prior 45.2remains in contraction, now for 6 months in a row – longest period since the global financial crisis average over the history of the survey is 53.2 BNZ’s Senior Economist Doug Steel: smoothing through monthly volatility, the PSI’s 3-month average remains

Gunshots were fired “in the vicinity” of former President Donald Trump on Sunday. The shooting took place at Trump’s golf course in West Palm Beach, Florida, Trump International Golf Course, “where former President Trump was golfing”. Trump is unharmed. The last time Trump suffered an injury to his ear. This time nothing, thankfully. This article

The FBI, Secret Service, and local law enforcement will hold a press conference regarding the attempted assassination of former President Trump. Awaiting details. So far: Gunshots fired “in the vicinity” of Trump – Trump is unharmedMore on the Trump shooting (Trump is unharmed) – Secret Service returned fireTrump shooting (he’s unharmed) – Checking indicative FX

Bank of Canada Governor Tiff Macklem spoke in an interview with the Financial Times. FT is gated, but in very brief Macklem expressed concern about the labor market: “labor market is pointing to some downside risks””As you get closer to the target … You become more concerned about the downside risks” Those snippets via Reuters.

Shots were fired near Trump at his gold course in Florida on Sunday afternoon. Reports are still sketchy. So far: Gunshots fired “in the vicinity” of Trump – Trump is unharmedMore on the Trump shooting (Trump is unharmed) – Secret Service returned fireTrump shooting (he’s unharmed) – Checking indicative FX rates – 16 September 2024

Newsquawk Week Ahead: Highlights include FOMC, BoJ, BoE, US & UK Retail Sales, UK, Canada & Japan CPI, Australian jobs and New Zealand GDP Sat: China Activity Data (Aug)Mon: N/ATue: EZ/German ZEW (Sep), US Retail Sales (Aug), Canadian CPI (Aug), US Industrial Production & Manufacturing Output (Aug), Business Inventories (Jul), NAHB Housing Index (Sep)Wed: FOMC

UPCOMING EVENTS: Monday: New Zealand Services PMI.Tuesday: Eurozone ZEW, Canada CPI, US Retail Sales, US Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization, US NAHB Housing Market Index.Wednesday: UK CPI, US Housing Starts and Building Permits, BoC Summary of Deliberations, FOMC Policy Decision.Thursday: New Zealand Q2 GDP, Australia Labour Market report, BoE Policy Decision, US Jobless Claims.Friday: Japan

China retail sales, industrial output, investment data for August 2024 – another round of disappointing results. Retail Sales +2.1% (YoY) (Aug) expected 2.5%, prior 2.7% Industrial Production +4.5% (YoY) (Aug) expected 4.8%, prior 5.1% Fixed Asset Investment +3.4$(YTD) (YoY) (Aug) expected 3.5%, prior 3.6% Unemployment 5.3% expected 5.2%, prior 5.2% Also published were home prices

Crude oil futures is settling at $68.65. That is down $0.32 -0.46%. The high price reached $70.32. The low price was at $68.50 THe selling into the settlement took the price below the 200 hour MA at $68.91. This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

As the week, moves to the close, what are the technicals telling traders going into the new trading week. This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

To cut, or not to cut 50 basis points. As the Federal Reserve’s September meeting approaches, JP Morgan reiterates its call for a 50 basis point cut, scheduled for Wednesday at 2 PM ET. Following Nick Timiraos’ article highlighting the Fed’s predicament, market odds have shifted from 20-80 to a nearly even 50-50 split. Former

Monday, September 16 (ET) 8:30am ET: US Empire State Manufacturing Index (Forecast: -4.1, Previous: -4.70) Tuesday, September 17 (ET) 5:00am ET: German ZEW Economic Sentiment (Forecast: 17.2, Previous: 19.2) 8:30am ET: CAD CPI m/m (Forecast: 0.1%, Previous: 0.4%) 8:30am ET: US Core Retail Sales m/m (Forecast: 0.2%, Previous: 0.4%) 8:30am ET: US Retail Sales m/m

Goldman Sachs is keeping it 25 basis point cut forecast for the Fed next week. They also see cuts of 25 basis points in both November and December. This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

NASDAQ and S&P indices end the week with five straight days of gains Goldman Sachs sees a 25 basis point cut from the Fed next weekNext week will be dominated by the FOMC rate decision.Crude oil futures settled at $68.65ECB’s Makhlouf: ECB is not pre-committing to a particular rate path.Go big or go small? JP

The major US stock indices closed the day with gains. The NASDAQ and the S&P had a perfect week with five straight winning days. The NASDAQ index erased it -5.77% decline from last week with a gain of 5.95%. A snapshot of the closing levels today shows: Dow industrial average rose 297.01 points or 0.72%

The comments from Makhlouf are in-line with the views expressed by ECBs Lagarde. The ECB is sittiong on the fence and waiting….even if it might be uncomfortable. This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

Prior quarter: 78.5% revised to 78.6% Details: Canadian industries operated at 79.1% capacity in Q2 2024.This is a slight increase from 78.6% in Q1 2024.The Q1 2024 capacity utilization was revised up by 0.1 percentage point. Mining, Quarrying, and Oil and Gas Extraction Capacity utilization increased by 1.6 percentage points to 77.2% in Q2.Growth driven

The USDCHF is moving lower with the US yields. The price has broken below a cluster of moving averages defined by the 200 hour moving average and the 100 bar moving average on the four hour chart at 0.8478, and the 100 hour moving average of 0.84916. Stay below those levels keeps the sellers more

The price of crude oil is now trading in negative territory and $69.08. That is down from a high of $70.32. Looking at the hourly chart, the price action this week did move above its 200-hour moving average (currently at $68.93) on its way to the high today. That move higher today also exceeded above

The Bakers Hughes rig count for the current week shows: Total rig up 8 at 590Oil rigs + 5 at 488NatGas rigs +3 and 97 This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

The USDCAD closed the week at 1.3558. The current price is a little higher at 1.3580. The high price for the week reached 1.3622 on Wednesday. That move took the price above a swing area with the high at 1.36188, but quickly reversed lower. The high price stalled ahead of the 38.2% of the move

The CNBC retail monitor sees consumer spending cooling, but still higher: Retail sales ex auto and gas MoM: +0.5% versus +0.7% last month. Retail Sales YoY ex auto and gas: +2.1% versus +0.9% last monthCore Retail Sales MoM: 0.2% versus +1.0% last monthCore Retail Sales YoY: on .9% versus 1.7% last month Looking at the

This will include steep tariff hikes on Chinese EVs, solar cells, semiconductors, and steel among other strategic goods. More specifically, it will be a 100% duty on Chinese EVs, 50% on solar cells, and 25% on steel, aluminum and key minerals. All of which will be going into effect on 27 September. As for a

China’s bonds continue to rally (yields lower) as the economy barely stumbles along. We’ll get an economic data update over the weekend: Critical data coming for AUD/USD … this weekend! (Spoiler – China data) If there is a brgith spot it’s the rally for CNH that has given some breathing apce to the People’s Bank

Boeing machinists went on strike after rejecting a 25% pay raise.That is shuttered the going manufacturing plant Here are the main points from the Boeing CFO’s statement Strike Impact: Strike will jeopardize recovery, impact production and deliveries Cash Conservation: Laser-like focus on actions to conserve cash Union Negotiations: Want to get back to the table

Prior +6.3%New yuan loans ¥900 billionPrior ¥260 billion China’s bank lending tumbled in July to its lowest in almost 15 years but it seen rebounding back a little in August, though estimates were expecting it to climb back up to around ¥1.0 trillion. Looking at the year-to-date figure, China’s new yuan loans is totaling up

That’s a wrap for the European stock indices for the trading week, and then ended the day with gains, and the week with gains as well. For the trading day: German DAX +0.92% France’s CAC, +0.41%.UK’s FTSE 100 +0.39%Spain’s Ibex, +1.23%Italy’s FTSE MIB +0.34% For the trading week: German DAX +2.11% France’s CAC +1.54%UK’s FTSE

Import prices prior month: +0.1%Export price prior month: was 0.7% revised to us 0.5%Import prices MoM -0.3% % vs -0.2% estimateExport prices MoM -0.7% vs -0.1% estimateImport prices YoY 0.8% vs 1.6% last monthExport prices YoY -0.7% vs 1.4% last month Details: Overall Imports U.S. import prices fell by 0.3% in August, the largest monthly

John Paulsen made a killing by calling the 2008 housing market bubble. A supporter of GOP candidate Trump, he is on CNBC given an interview. He says it is a good time for investingWe did have a bubble in government debt (negative interest rate times), but does not see it anymoreHe favors a 50 basis

Headlines: USD/JPY stays pressured as lower yields weighECB’s Muller: Temporary acceleration in inflation is likelyECB’s Holzmann: There could be room for another rate cut in DecemberECB’s Villeroy: We should continue to reduce gradually and as appropriateECB’s Rehn says will continue to base policy decisions on assessment of inflation outlookECB’s Vasle: We are not committed to

Prior month 67.9University of Michigan consumer sentiment 69.0 versus 68.5 estimate.Best since May 2024Current conditions 62.9 versus 61.5 estimate. Last month 61.3. Best since June 2024expectations and 73.0 versus 71.0 estimate. Last month 72.1. Best since April 20241-yesr inflation expectations 2.7% versus 2.8% last month.5- year inflation expectations 3.1% versus 3.0% last month The final

Banco Central de Reserva del Perú (BCRP) is the Peruvian central bank: cuts reference rate by 25bps to 5.25%, as expectedsays the rate cut does not necessarily mean more rate cuts in the futurey/y inflation expected to stay within the target range on the projected horizoncore inflation expected to have a downward trendindicators and forecasts

German DAX futures +0.4%French CAC 40 futures +0.2%UK FTSE futures flat This follows from the gains yesterday and also the positive showing in Wall Street overnight. S&P 500 futures are lightly changed on the day though, so we’re not seeing the optimism get too carried away just yet. Just be mindful that bonds are bid

The AUDUSD is higher for the week after dipping lower earlier in the week where the 200 day moving average stalled the fall. The subsequent move to the upside was able to extend above resistance rotated back down toward support and extend above resistance and and step pattern defined by technical levels. Today the run

What a trend for gold. I posted this geopol stuff earlier, if this isn’t a good case for gold I don;t know what is: Putin warns that lifting Ukraine missile restrictions will put NATO at war with Russia Apart from that gold has plenty going for it, has for a long time: This article was

If the Fed wants to organise things in an orderly manner, the market sure isn’t letting them do so. The odds of a 50 bps rate cut dwindled after the US CPI report earlier this week but were reignited again in trading yesterday. The odds of that have moved back up to ~45% now. There

Nick Timiraos from the WSJ has tweeted that economists who map the CPI and PPI to the core PCE, are forecasting a rise of 0.13% to 0.17% for the August PCE. A reading of 0.13% would round to 0.1%, while 0.17% would round up to 0.2%. In either case (0.1% or 0.2%), it extends a

The major US stock indices are opening with modest changes. Coming into the day the S&P and NASDAQ indices are working on a four day winning streak trying to extend that to five for five this week. It is Friday the 13th. Can the markets rise above that jinx? A snapshot of the market currently

Prior -0.1%; revised to 0.0% The drop here fits with the continued softness in the euro area industrial sector, led by the struggles in Germany especially. Looking at the breakdown, intermediate goods dropped by 1.3%, capital goods by 1.6%, durable consumer goods by 2.8%. That was slightly offset by an increase in energy by 0.3%

📈 Technology Sector: A day of gains The technology sector is experiencing notable gains today, buoyed by positive investor sentiment. Oracle (ORCL) leads the charge with an impressive rise of 7.24%, signaling robust performance in software infrastructure. However, Adobe (ADBE) is down 9.50%, suggesting possible challenges or profit-taking occurring in this stock. 📊 Sector Overview:

Fundamental Overview Crude oil is finally finding some footing this week as the dip-buyers might be looking forward to the Fed’s easing cycle. As a reminder, the positioning in crude oil is at a record 13 years low and the sentiment is very bearish. These factors can generally offer great contrarian opportunities. The main reason

In the kickstart video, for September 13, 2024, I take a look at three other major currency pairs – the EURUSD, USJDPY and GBPUSD. For the EURUSD, it moved to a swing area between 1.10976 and 1.11042 and found willing sellers. That area will be a key resistance level today and going forward. Move above

On the economic calendar today: Canada Capacity Utilization Rate for Q2: Forecast: 78.5%, Previous: 78.5Canada Wholesale Sales m/m: Forecast: -1.1%, Previous -0.6%, US Import Prices m/m: Forecast: -0.2%, Previous: +0.1. US export prices MoM Forecast -0.1%. Previous +0.7%US Prelim UoM Consumer Sentiment: Forecast: 68.5, Previous: 67.9. Current conditions Forecast 61.5, Previous 61.3. Expectations. Forecast 71.0.

Temporary acceleration in inflation is likely.Services inflation is still a concern.The Eurozone economy is awaiting moderate recovery.Confidence is growing that inflation is on the right track. This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at www.forexlive.com.

The only highlight in the European session will be the Industrial Production data, which is rarely a market moving release though. The main event for today will be the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment report but it’s unlikely to change anything in terms of market pricing unless we get huge deviations. 14:00 GMT/10:00 ET –

The day might be spent digesting the European Central Bank decision and spitballing the FOMC one. This snapshot from the ForexLive economic data calendar, access it here. The times in the left-most column are GMT. The numbers in the right-most column are the ‘prior’ (previous month/quarter as the case may be) result. The number in

The UK and the US meet on Friday to discuss plans to allow Kyiv to strike targets inside Russia with Western-supplied missiles. Russian President Vladimir Putin warned he would regard such an agreement as tantamount to NATO directly entering the war. “This will mean that NATO countries, the United States, and European countries are fighting

Both the S&P index in the NASDAQ index have been higher on each of the trading days this week. That comes after the NASDAQ index fell by -5.77% last week, and the S&P index fell by -4.25% as well. This week with a 1-day to go: S&P index is up 3.46%NASDAQ index is up 5.27%

The chance for a 50 basis point cut next week by the Fed is now up to 50-50 in volatile trading this morning. At this time yesterday the chance of a 50 basis point cut was only about 20 – 25%. Then comments from Wall Street Journal’s Nick Timiraos where he talked about the dilemma

Prior +2.3%HICP +2.2% vs +2.2% y/y prelimPrior +2.7% This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

Bloomberg (gated) with the info, citing unnamed sources: China poised to cut interest rates on more than $5 trillion of outstanding mortgages as early as this monthSome banks are making final preparations to get ready for the upcoming adjustments on mortgage ratesSome homeowners may enjoy up to 50 basis points of immediate rate reductionTimeline has