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Prior was +0.64B (revised to -0.18B)Exports $65.66 billion vs $66.65 billion priorImports $64.97 billion vs $66.01 billion prior More details: Trade surplus with US widened to $11.3 billion from $9.0 billion in JuneDeficit with rest of world increased to $10.6 billion from $9.2 billionMotor vehicles and parts drove declines in both imports (-10.8%) and exports […]

It is a Wednesday on a non-farm payrolls week. And that typically means we should observe the US ADP roulette. However, not this week at least. Monday featured a US holiday so the timeline for data releases are pushed back a little. That will see the ADP employment data only come out tomorrow instead. As

Governor Tiff Macklem and Senior Deputy Governor Carolyn Rogers answer reporters’ questions following the policy rate decision. The opening statement from Macklem was pre-published. This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

Prior month 8.184M (was expecting 8.000M) revised lower 7.910MJob openings 7.673M. Lowest since Feb 2021vacancy rate 4.6% versus 4.8% last month revised from 4.9%Quits rate 2.1% versus 2.0% last month (revised from 2.1%).Separations rate 3.2% versus 3.2% last month Details: JOLT Job Report Summary for July Total job openings: 7.7 million, rate 4.6%Decreased by 1.1

Prior 51.9Composite PMI 51.0 vs 51.2 prelimPrior 50.2 A slight revision lower but the readings are still better than July. It mostly owes to a jump in French business activity though, which is arguably a one-off thanks to the Paris Olympics. One major detail to be mindful of is that the employment index dipped below

Prior was -3.3%Factory orders ex transportation +0.4 vs +0.1% prior This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

Services PMI 51.4 vs. 52.6 expected and 51.7 prior.Composite PMI 50.8 vs. 50.3 prior. Key findings: Fresh decreases in both total and international sales. Softest rise in business activity seen since January. Optimism in the outlook dips to ten-month low. Comment: Commenting on the final PMI data, Dr Tariq Kamal Chaudhry, Economist at Hamburg Commercial

US 2-year notes now yield less than 10-year notes. Aside from a brief move at the start of August, this would be the first move to a positive-sloping yield curve since the inversion in July 2022. It comes with US 2s down 10 basis points today to 3.79% while 10s have moved down 5.5 bps

In the kickstart video for September 4, I take a technical look at the EURUSD, USDJPY, GBPUSD and a special technical look at the USDCAD ahead of their interest rate decision at 9:45 AM ET. For the EURUSD, it rose to test a trend line on the hourly chart and the falling 100 hour MA

There is just one to take note of on the day, as highlighted in bold. That being for USD/CAD at the 1.3515 level. It isn’t one that really holds any technical significance but the expiries there could act as a bit of a floor to price action, at least until we get to the Bank

Eyes are on Nvidia shares again today after the 9.5% fall yesterday led to the largest one-day market-cap decline in the history of markets. The DOJ issued an anti-trust subpeona after the close and that’s led to a further 1.4% decline in shares in the pre-market, though many people believed that must have leaked yesterday.

Bank of Canada overnight rate was 4.50% before the decisionMarkets were pricing in a 76% chance of a 25 bps cut and 24% chance of 50 bpsMacklem will hold a press conference at 10:30 am ET, but the opening statement was released with the BOC statement USD/CAD was trading at 1.3546 ahead of the decision.

In the European session, we will just get the final services PMIs and the Eurozone PPI data. These aren’t generally market moving releases since they are old news. The real action should be in the American session when we get the Bank of Canada rate decision and the US Job Openings data. 13:45 GMT/09:45 ET

That opposed to a Trump victory of course, according to Goldman Sachs. The firm argues that economic output will take a hit next year under the Trump banner. And that is mostly from increased tariffs on imports and tighter immigration policies. Adding that jobs growth will also be stronger under a Democrat government as opposed

Market Overview: Tech Struggles Amidst Broad Fluctuations Today’s stock market presents a mixed bag with particular stress in the technology sector, albeit with notable exceptions. The heatmap analysis offers a granular look into which areas are facing headwinds and which are surging ahead despite broader market challenges. 📉 Semiconductors Slide, With Notable Exceptions The semiconductor

The major US stock indices are opening lower and adding to the woes from yesterday when the NASDAQ index fell -3.4% led by Nvidia which fell over 9.4% yesterday. A snapshot of the market currently shows: Dow industrial average is near unchanged at 40,940S&P index down -15 points or -0.28% at 5513.85NASDAQ index down -100

Japan Chief Cabinet Secretary Hayashi No comment on daily share movesClosely watching domestic and overseas market moves with a sense of urgencyWill conduct fiscal and economic policy management while working closely with BOJ Important to make assessment of market moves calmly Hayashi is in the running for new Japanese Prime Minister This article was written

Deutsche Bank is out with a note and it illustrates the big question on the US dollar: “As long as the dollar remains a high-yielder, there is very convincing evidence that it stays strong,” writes George Saravelos. But as the chart above shows, it’s priced to fall below AUD, NZD and GBP. “This would be

UBS argues that the oil market is undersupplied despite weak Chinese oil demand, with demand elsewhere making up for it. They also add that supply growth did disappoint in some non-OPEC+ states, contributing to the situation. As such, they are retaining a positive outlook on the oil market. And that they expect oil prices to

Geopolitics provided a bit of a boost to oil prices in recent months but it is a factor that always fades eventually. It’s no different this time around. And with growing worries surrounding global growth, that is putting added pressure to the outlook for the oil market currently. Not to mention that with so much

As the North American session begins, the JPY is the strongest and the CAD is the weakest. Looking at the currencies other than the JPY above, if it weren’t for the declines vs the JPY, the changes of all the currencies would be minimal for all of the major currencies vs each other. Trading ranges

Prior month $-73.1 billion revised to $-73.0 billionGoods trade balance $-102.84 billion versus $-96.56 billionServices surplus $24.3 billion versus $24.2 billion last month other details: Exports +0.5% versus +1.7% last month.Imports +2.1% versus +0.6% last month.Total exports $266.6 billion versus $265.279 last month. Higher Total imports $345.39 billion versus $338.28 billion last month. Higher.Capital goods

Goldman Sachs maintains a bullish outlook on gold, targeting $2,700 per ounce for early 2025. The firm recommends going long on gold due to increasing central bank purchases, anticipated Fed rate cuts, and gold’s role as a hedge against geopolitical risks. Key Points: Central Bank Purchases: Central bank gold purchases have tripled since mid-2022, driven

Fundamental Overview Yesterday, we got the US ISM Manufacturing PMI and even though the headline number missed expectations, under the hood the report was better than the prior month. The bad news was new orders falling further into contraction, which is a proxy for demand, and it’s generally considered as a leading indicator. What weighed

Fundamental Overview Yesterday, we got the US ISM Manufacturing PMI and even though the headline number missed expectations, under the hood the report was better than the prior month. The bad news was new orders falling further into contraction, which is a proxy for demand, and it’s generally considered as a leading indicator. Tight monetary

Economic growth in Australia in the second quarter of 2024. AUD little changed following the data. Weak growth for the Australian economy. The 1% y/y is the slowest since 1991 (apart from the pandemic recession). The RBA forecast 0.9% so the result would seem to have minimal monetary policy implications. subdued household demand detracted 0.1%

They had previously penciled in a 0.2% growth forecast for the German economy this year. Meanwhile, they also revised lower their projection for the economy next year. That is now see at a growth of 0.5%, down from 1.1% in their previous forecast. Again, with all these forecasts, it’s more to do with the trends

Eurostoxx -1.1%Germany DAX -1.2%France CAC 40 -0.9%UK FTSE -0.8%Spain IBEX -0.8%Italy FTSE MIB -1.0% It’s still a little rough out there with US futures also keeping lower to start the session. The DAX is now backing further away from record highs and the CAC 40 is now at a two-week low. S&P 500 futures are

Australian Q2 GDP is expected to eke out a small gain: +0.3% q/q expected+1.0% annual The ‘partials’ this week have been lacklustre: inventories negative, to detract 0.3%business profits and capex weak (falling)net exports +0.2% contribution but well under estimates Saved by government spending: public demand grew public investment grew Also coming is the final Chinese

The NZDUSD is trading to new lows as traders react today to risk-off sentiment as stocks/commodities slide. Concerns about growth in the US and CHna iare weighing on the pair. Recall from last week, the NZDUSD peaked on Thursday after a surprise ANZ Business confidence number (50.6 vs 27.1 estimate). However, since then the price

German DAX futures -1.2%French CAC 40 futures -1.0%UK FTSE futures -0.8% This carries over the selling from Wall Street yesterday. US futures are also down again today, with S&P 500 futures lower by 0.5% and Nasdaq futures down 0.6% currently. We’re not seeing much spillovers yet into FX but if the action picks up in

0730 GMT / 0330 US Eastern time: Riksbank First Deputy Governor Anna Breman participates in a panel discussion at a conference organised by the European Banking Authority (EBA) and the European Central Bank (ECB) — Sveriges Riksbank is the central bank of Sweden, and it operates independently from the European Central Bank (ECB). Sweden is

Here’s a recap of how the day is playing out so far: ForexLive Asia-Pacific FX news wrap: Australian GDP missRisk stays on the defensive after the selloff yesterdayA slower start for major currencies so far today The more interesting risk events in markets today will come later in North America trading. And that will be

Final Services PMI 53.7 vs. 53.3 expected and 52.5 prior.Final Composite PMI 53.8 vs. 53.4 expected and 52.8 prior. Key findings: Business activity growth accelerates again. Robust rise in new work led by improving domestic demand. Slowest rate of prices charged inflation for three- and-a-half years. Comment: Tim Moore, Economics Director at S&P Global Market

In New Zealand dollar terms, the index lifted 1.5% m/m as the NZD Trade Weighted Index fell 0.7%. As part of this report ANZ cover global shipping prices: Global shipping prices remain high as ships continue to avoid the Suez Canal due to ongoing tensions in the Middle East, and congestion occurs in the Port

In summary from an MUFG outlook: MUFG Bank suggests that the Japanese yen might strengthen further against the dollar, as the Federal Reserve is expected to begin cutting interest rates in September, while the Bank of Japan may raise rates again later this year. According to MUFG analysts, the market is underestimating the likelihood of

Banco Central de Chile rate cut Bank says the decision was unanimoussays cut to neutral level will be faster than projectedlower risk of more medium-term inflation persistency The Chilean central bank has a 3% inflation target This above screenshot from the Bank is not yet reflecting today’s cut. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan

Bloomberg (gated) carries the report, in brief: S&P Global Ratings is “broadly comfortable” with New Zealand’s sovereign rating outlookclosely watching NZ large current-account deficit and weak economic growthNew Zealand’s current account deficit was 6.8% of gross domestic product in the 12 months through March … among the widest of advanced economies, reflecting subdued exports, stronger-than-expected

People’s Bank of China USD/CNY reference rate is due around 0115 GMT. The People’s Bank of China (PBOC), China’s central bank, is responsible for setting the daily midpoint of the yuan (also known as renminbi or RMB). The PBOC follows a managed floating exchange rate system that allows the value of the yuan to fluctuate

The People’s Bank of China set the onshore yuan (CNY) reference rate for the trading session ahead. USD/CNY is the onshore yuan. Its permitted to trade plus or minus 2% from this daily reference rate.CNH is the offshore yuan. USD /CNH has no restrictions on its trading range.A significantly stronger or weaker rate than expected

The ranges for the day are still relatively narrow for the most part, with USD/JPY again holding the largest one. That said, even the range there is just a little over 60 pips with the pair continuing to gyrate in and around the 145.00 mark. The dollar did threaten a stronger push higher against the

The Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) report is a monthly report released by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS). it provides much-watched data on the US labour market, including information on job openings, hires, quits, layoffs, and discharges.considered a key indicator of labour market strength Due at 10 am US Eastern time:

Axios with the heads up on what Harris is expected to speak on later today, Wednesday, September 4, 2024: proposal includes a tenfold increase in the tax deduction for starting a small business — from $5,000 to $50,000. Harris will deliver her campaign speech in New Hampshire. Here is the Axios link for more. The

Bloomberg with the results of a survey it undertook. Bloomberg is gated, but the headline summary nis: Japan’s $1.75 trillion state pension fund may step up purchases of domestic stocks and scale back on foreign bonds in a reallocation of assets that would ripple through global markets GPIF is expected to boost its allocation target

I posted earlier on the BoA forecast cut for this year: Bank of America cut its 2024 China GDP forecast to 4.8% Adding in now that the bank has also cut its projection for 2025 to 4.5% growth. The forecast for 2026 is the same, at 4.5%. I’ve not got much lease on this, these

Time is ticking down on US equity trading today but there are some signs of slightly better risk appetite elsewhere. Bitcoin held the earlier lows and is now at the best levels of the US afternoon. The euro and pound are also getting a slight lift from the lows after breaking down a short time

Shares of Nvidia fell 9.5% today as the market frets about slowing progress in AI. There were worries last week after earnings but shares of Nvidia steadied after nearly a dozen price target boosts from analysts. But that would only offer a temporary reprieve as a round of profit-taking hit today and snowballed. The result

It looks like the bump higher during month-end last week was just that. Equities are starting to feel nervous again, with concerns surrounding Nvidia and tech resurfacing. It was brushed aside briefly after the earnings last week but added worries about global growth is perhaps also piling on top of things. The S&P 500 fell

Deutsche Bank economists suggest that if the U.S. August payroll report on Friday shows an unemployment rate of 4.2% or 4.3% with job gains between 130,000 and 150,000, it would likely reinforce market expectations for a 25-basis point rate cut by the Fed on September 18. However, if unemployment is higher or there are broader

US August ISM manufacturing index 47.2 vs 47.5 expectedUS August final S&P Global manufacturing PMI 47.9 vs 48.0 prelimUS construction spending for July -0.3% versus -0.1% expectedAtlanta Fed Q3 GDPNow 2.0% vs 2.5% priorECB’s Nagel says he won’t commit in advance of September rate moveNew Zealand GDT Price Index -0.4%ECB’s Simkus: Quite unlikely that we

Both of the Caixin PMIs outperformed official PMIs. The two are different surveys. China has two primary Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) surveys – the official PMI released by the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) and the Caixin China PMI published by the media company Caixin and research firm Markit / S&P Global. The official PMI

The major US stock indices had an ugly day to start the new trading month. The NASDAQ index led by Nvidia and other chip stocks stumbled and tumbled. The index had its worst trading day since August when the index fell -3.43%: A look at some of the chip stock shows: Nvidia, -9.53%. The stock

A note from analysts at Citi says that “relatively small differences in Friday’s jobs reading could materially affect Fed policy.” In brief: a headline non-farm payroll (NFP) of 125,000 with a 4.3% unemployment rate of 4.3% is likely to prompt a 50bp rate cut from the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) this montha 4.2% jobless

In summary from the report commentary: August saw continued positive growth in Japan’s service sector, with increases in both activity and new business.The growth rate in activity remained steady, while the expansion of new orders slowed. Employment rose for the eleventh consecutive month, though the rate of increase slowed to a seven-month low. Business optimism

Goldman Sachs on artificial intelligence cutting oil prices ahead: “AI could potentially reduce costs via improved logistics and resource allocation … resulting in a $5/bbl fall in the marginal incentive price, assuming a 25% productivity gain observed for early AI adopters,” Goldman expects a modest potential AI boost to oil demand compared to demand impact

In summary: Improvement in Activity: The Services PMI showed increased activity in August after a softer July, indicating a rebound in the services sector.Business Confidence: Despite higher margin pressures, services firms became more confident about future activity levels over the next 12 months.Business Activity Growth: August marked the seventh consecutive month of expansion in Australia’s

That headline is a snippet from a Deutsche Bank report. “Gold has been lower in 10 of the last 11 Septembers” Analysts at the bank also note that: The S&P 500 has been lower for the last four SeptembersBy the end of the month, we’ll also be just 5 weeks away from the US election

The USDJPY is bouncing after starting the US session with a move below 100 hour MA and 50% retracement of the August range when both were near 145.53. The momentum continued down to the 200-hour MA near 145.21. The low reached 145.12 but ran out of downside momentum despite the break below. The price has

That line from Federal Reserve Chairman Powell, uttered at Jackson Hole looms large in market pricing this week and going forward. The takeaway is that they don’t want to see unemployment rise meaningfully, or perhaps at all. Financial conditions are worsening to start the month and the ISM manufacturing survey had the lowest new orders

BofA anticipates the Bank of Canada (BoC) will cut the overnight rate by 25 basis points in its September 4 meeting, bringing it to 4.25%. Despite CAD’s recent rally, the currency is not expected to move significantly post-meeting, as it is nearing its short-term fair value against the USD. BofA forecasts USD/CAD to retrace to

Major US indices are opening lower with the NASDAQ is down -200 points to raising the gains from Friday’s trade (+197 point). A snapshot of the market nine minutes into the open showing: Dow industrial average -228.2 at -0.55% at 41338S&P index -23.51 points or -0.77% at 5605NASDAQ index -211 points or -1.19% at 17504

Prior was +5.5%Avg prices $3,833/MTWhole milk powder -2.5% This isn’t been a market mover in awhile but I continue to post it out of tradition more than anything. NZD is struggling today on risk aversion. This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

US stocks opened lower and are going even lower after some weaker data. The S&P global manufacturing PMI was we can expected followed by the ISM PMI data also coming in lower. Construction spending completed the hat-trick with lower than expected results. The poor economic data has the two-year down -7 basis points at 3.856%,

The euro is struggling today as the US dollar gains broadly on a painful turn in the risk trade. What looked like a breakout to a one-year high only a week ago is now looking suspect. The euro easily fell back below the December highs and took out 1.1050 today. Next is the 1.1000 level,

These unrelated to economic and monetary policy developments. Perhaps we’ll get something in a Q&A though. 1200 GMT / 0800 US Eastern time ECB bank supervisor Claudia Buch and ECB’s José Manuel Campa speak at a Joint European Banking Authority & European Central Bank international conference 1400 GMT / 1000 US Eastern time: Panel participation

Yesterday, European stock markets recovered from an early dip. Today was a different story as the major indexes closed near the lows: Stoxx 600 -1.1%German DAX -0.9%Francis CAC -0.9%UK’s FTSE 100 -0.8%Spain’s IBEX -1.1%Italy’s FTSE MIB -1.4% There hasn’t been a meaningful selloff since August 5. This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

The EURUSD rebounded on the back of the yield declines at the start of the US session, but has reversed to the downside after the pair tested the highs from yesterday and the 100 bar MA on the 4-hour chart at 1.10712. The US session high reached 1.1068 just 3 pips short of that MA

The ECB’s Simkus spoke with Econostream and delivered some hawkish comments. For the cut in September I see a quite clear case. For cutting in October or by more than 25bp, I find it quite unlikely.No strong argument for 50bp cut despite weakening economyMarket implied chances of an October cut are around a 40% probability”The

Let’s try to keep this one short, shall we? Two weeks back, gold looked poised for a technical break as it jumped above key resistance at the time near $2,480. The move higher also took out the $2,500 mark but since then, there wasn’t much follow through. Instead, we got caught in a consolidation phase

The great inflation wave is overWon’t commit in advance on whether he will support a rate cut in Sept Spoiler, the cut is coming whether he supports it or not. This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

The takeaway from Powell’s Jackson Hole speech was that he wanted to leave 50 basis points on the table for this meeting and future ones. Markets are now off to a rough start in September and bonds are bid strongly, with yields down 7-8 bps across the curve despite some hefty corporate supply. With that,

Prior month 47.8S&P global manufacturing PMI for August 49.5 versus 47.8 last month For the full report, CLICK HERE. Below are the main points in bullet format: Canada’s Manufacturing Economy: Operating conditions continued to deteriorate in August, but at a marginal and softest degree since March. Slower falls in output and new orders were reported.

Nvidia shares are currently trading down $-9.02 or -7.56% at $110.37. That is right at its 100 day moving average at $110.36. The low price did reach $109.40 below that moving average. Bearish The current decline is on pace for its worst trading day since April 19, 2024 when the price fell -10%. The price

British Retail Consortium (BRC) total sales in August +1.0% y/y vs +0.5% in July BRC Like-for-like sales +0.8% y/y vs +0.3% in July Barclaycard UK August consumer spending +1.0% y/y (after declining the previous two months) chief UK economist at Barclays, said its survey supported its view that consumers would increasingly support the economy, which

Japan’s Sumitomo Mitsui DS Asset Management argues that the worst is now behind for China. This snippet in brief. Analysts at the firm hold a positive outlook, citing: Chinese equities are attractively valuedThe worst is now behind China, even if the property market may take longer than expected to recover significantly I’m digging up a

Prior month -0.3% Total Construction: Down for the month. Still higher on the year. Seasonally adjusted annual rate: $2,162.7 billion (-0.3% below June estimate) +6.7% above July 2023 estimate Year-to-date (first 7 months): $1,237.5 billion (+8.8% above same period in 2023) Private Construction: Lower on the month and the year Seasonally adjusted annual rate: $1,678.7

The USDCAD is moving higher as focus for that pair is on the fall in commodity prices including the price of oil and the risk-off flows due to tumbling stocks in the US. Technicals have also played a role in the USDCADs rise to the upside after earlier in the day, the price moved back

The risk mood was seen steadier at the open in Europe this morning but has quickly turned in the last hour or so. S&P 500 futures are now down 0.5% with Nasdaq futures down 0.8%. Meanwhile, Dow futures are also down by 0.5% currently. That is putting a drag on European equities as well while

It’s a rough one for oil today with WTI crude oil down $3.03 to $70.52. That’s the lowest since January 17 and perilously close to the $60s. The latest leg of selling came after a report on Friday that said OPEC+ is likely to proceed with a planned gradual production increase from October. The weekend

Prelim was 48.0July final was 46.8Production declines for first time in 7 monthsNew orders fall at fastest pace since June 2023Employment drops for first time this yearInput cost inflation accelerates to 16-month high The ISM manufacturing report is due at the top of the hour. Chris Williamson, Chief Business Economist at S&P Global Market Intelligence,

The Nasdaq index is down -443 points or -2.5% at 17271. That has taken the price below its 200-hour moving average 17304.22, and is testing a gap going back to August 14 to August 15 at 17260.73. The low price today has reached 17267.58. If the price were to move below those levels, the 30

This isn’t going to improve the mood in markets but it still very early in the Q3 reporting cycle. Prior was 2.5% From the Atlanta Fed: “After this morning’s releases from the US Census Bureau and the Institute for Supply Management, the nowcasts of third-quarter real personal consumption expenditures growth and third-quarter real gross private

August consumer price index +2.0% y/y (expected +2.0%) Consumer price index +0.4% m/m (expected +0.3%) Core CPI +2.1% y/y vs +2.2% in July Consumer price index marks slowest rise y/y since March 2021Core CPI marks slowest rise y/y since November 2021 Info comes via Reuters, the slowing pace of inflation continues globally. This article was

Now that the Swiss CPI is out of the way, there’s not much else left for the European session. The focus will be on the US ISM Manufacturing PMI in the American session which could set the trend into the NFP report on Friday. 14:00 GMT/10:00 ET – US August ISM Manufacturing PMI The US

Prior was 46.8Prices paid 54.0 versus 52.9 priorEmployment 46.0 versus 43.4 priorNew orders 44.6 versus 47.4 prior (lowest since May 2023)Production 44.8 versus 45.9 priorSupplier deliveries 50.5 versus 52.6 priorInventories 50.3 versus 44.5 priorBacklog of orders 43.6 versus 41.7 priorNew export orders 48.6 versus 49.0 priorImports 49.6 versus 48.6 prior The new orders number is

The Fedspeak is quiet today, but former Cleveland Fed President Loretta Mester is on CNBC (she is newly retired from the Fed) Jobs work is going to be an important piece of the puzzleThere will be a discussion on whether they want to start with a 25 or 50 basis point cutWhat is the path

I’ve been warning for a week about poor September seasonals and here they are. It’s the worst month for stocks, oil and gold. All three of the trio are down today and some in a big way. Perhaps most-worrying is the drop in shares of Nvidia, which are down 8% with little in the way

Today’s Market Landscape Investors grappled with broad-based shifts across multiple sectors today, with the tech sector experiencing notable downward pressure, particularly in semiconductors, while other industries showed mixed results, signaling diverse investor sentiment and strategic positioning. 📉 Semiconductor Sector in the Spotlight The semiconductor sector painted the heatmap red today, confronted by significant declines. Nvidia

Just a week to go until the next US presidential debateUS futures dribble lower on the sessionGold stays poised for a firmer breakout in big week for the dollarEuropean equities open a little higher to start the daySNB has just about the right excuse to do a little bit more later this monthSwitzerland Q2 GDP

As the North American session begins, the JPY is the strongest and the AUD is the weakest. The USD is stronger as traders return from the Labor Day holiday. It is full steam ahead now to the US presidential debate on September 10 (assuming solving the mic issue), which will culminate in the Presidential Election

There are a couple to take note of, as highlighted in bold. The first being for EUR/USD at the 1.1050 mark. And that could perhaps limit price action and make things a bit stickier in the session ahead before we get to the US open. Similarly, the one for USD/CAD at the 1.3500 level will

US yields have taken a dip to the downside over the last minutes of trading with the two year now down -3.1 basis points, the tenure down -5.2 basis points and 30 year yield also down -5.2 basis points. Looking at the 10-year yield, the dip has taken the yield down to 3.86%. That is

Bank of England Deputy Governor Breeden speaking on TuesdayECB speakers on Tuesday may be light on comments re the economy and monetary policyJapan will spend nearly a trillion yen to cover energy subsidiesAustralian data – Q2 net export contribution to GDP +0.2% (expected 0.6%)PBOC sets USD/ CNY central rate at 7.1112 (vs. estimate at 7.1120)USD/JPY

The dollar is keeping in a decent spot to start the day, with risk sentiment a little more sluggish to start the month. S&P 500 futures are down 0.2% and Nasdaq futures down 0.4% currently. But it’s stilly early in the week, with plenty of US data to work through. USD/JPY continues to bask in

I suspect this will have more to do with Harris’ campaigning for the presidency than anything else. Its going to be an issue for the next few months, disentangling anything the President says from electioneering. Anyway, a heads up. Perhaps we’ll get something substantive for markets. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

In the kickstart video, I take a technical look at the EURUSD, USDJPY and GBPUSD. For the EURUSD, it moved down to test the 38.2% retracement of the August trading range near 1.10389 but has since bounced back to the upside. If the sellers are to take more control they need to get and stay

These will also include canola imports as well as rapeseed, with the latter being a major export for Canada to China. The retaliatory move by China comes after the Canadian government announced a decision to impose 100% tariffs on Chinese EVs last week. They also decided to impose an additional 25% tariff on some aluminum

The event will take place at the National Constitution Center in Philadelphia at 9pm EDT (or 0100 GMT the next day). The question is, if there is a clear winner, who will be better or worse for the dollar? The short answer is that it isn’t going to be so straightforward. On the one hand,

Fundamental Overview The USD has finally got some relief since last week after being battered for weeks. The focus is now on the key data this week with the ISM Manufacturing PMI today and the NFP report on Friday in the spotlight. The market is waiting for the key economic releases this week, and especially

Fundamental Overview The USDJPY pair eventually erased the entire drop following the more dovish than expected Powell’s speech at the Jackson Hole Symposium. The focus is now on the key data this week with the ISM Manufacturing PMI and the NFP reports in the spotlight. The market is waiting for the key economic releases this

People’s Bank of China USD/CNY reference rate is due around 0115 GMT. The People’s Bank of China (PBOC), China’s central bank, is responsible for setting the daily midpoint of the yuan (also known as renminbi or RMB). The PBOC follows a managed floating exchange rate system that allows the value of the yuan to fluctuate

We’re barely into the start of North American trading for the month but so far September is living up to the billing of being a miserable month. S&P 500 futures are down 0.5% and Nasdaq futures are a tad worse. The oil market is worried about a resumption of Libyan production and poor demand, with

German DAX futures flatFrench CAC 40 futures -0.1%UK FTSE futures -0.1% This follows the slight gains from the day before. US futures are looking sluggish, so that’s also weighing a little on the mood. It looks like the German retail sales data for May is postponed indefinitely again. What’s up with that, Destatis? Pfft. Anyway,

The high earlier in the day was around 147.20 and tested the overnight high as well. Sellers held and since then, it’s been one-way traffic now as we get into European morning trade. USD/JPY is back down to near 146.00, although buyers are very much still in control as evident from the near-term chart above.

· Kuady expands its digital wallet services to Argentina, offering secure and efficient digital payment solutions · Following successful launches in Peru and Chile, Kuady continues its Latin American expansion, with further regional and global growth planned Open Payment Technologies Ltd, a payments service processor, has today announced the expansion of its digital wallet services,

Fundamental Overview Last week, crude oil has been on a seesaw due to supply side factors as we got the news that Libya was going to close down all oil fields and halt production and exports, and then that Iraq was going to cut production. On Friday, oil weakened again on the news that OPEC+

Fundamental Overview The USDCHF pair eventually erased the entire drop following the more dovish than expected Powell’s speech at the Jackson Hole Symposium. The focus is now on the key data this week with the ISM Manufacturing PMI and the NFP reports in the spotlight. The market is waiting for the key economic releases this

Data is here: South Korea’s headline CPI in August has risen at its slowest y/y pace since March 2021 South Korea’s Vice fin min comments after data showed consumer inflation hits its weakest in nearly three-and-a-half years. This has boosted expectations for an imminent easing of monetary policy at the Bank of Korea’s next meeting

Prior +0.5% The SNB might be worried about the Swiss industry but as a reminder, the economy relies much more heavily on its services sector. And overall, things seem to be doing just fine. Still, that doesn’t mean that the central bank should be too complacent and risk a potential return of deflationary pressures in

South Korea’s central bank said on Tuesday that consumer inflation was expected to maintain the current stable trend for the time being. The Bank of Korea said inflation was stabilising more quickly than in other major economies, in a statement released after data showed inflation reached the central bank’s target in August. This in reference

Eurostoxx +0.2%Germany DAX +0.3%France CAC 40 +0.2%UK FTSE +0.2%Spain IBEX +0.3%Italy FTSE MIB +0.2% S&P 500 futures are now flat and Nasdaq futures are down just 0.1%, having been down 0.4% earlier. It’s still early in the day of course, especially with the US ISM manufacturing PMI in focus. As for the week itself, it’s

SNB chairman Thomas Jordan last week said that the strong franc was not making things easier for the Swiss economy. And when you hear comments like that, it stands to reason that the central bank is watching things closely and might plot their next move based on how they would want to narrate the direction

New Zealand export and import prices data for the April, May and June quarter of 2024 Terms of trade +2.1% q/q expected +2.0%, prior +5.1%for the y/y, -1.6% Export Prices +5.2% q/q expected +2.8%, prior -0.3%for the y/y prices of exports -1.0%export volumes -4.3% q/q Import Prices +3.1% expected +0.5%, prior -5.1%for the y/y prices

USD/JPY traded higher on Monday in Europe. It tracked pretty much sideways during the US holiday that followed. Asian morning trade is testing the Monday high. The backdrop is solid uptrend on the hourly chart, but note the prior tops around this area from the week of 19-24 August that, for my 2 cents, look

Via UBS come some interesting points with the S&P 500 only around 1% from a record high. The note looks at the S&P 500 total returns (i.e. price gain plus dividends) from 1945, and points out the drawdown % risks from buying at random starting points: in 28% of cases an investor buying at a

Prior +1.3%Core CPI +1.1% y/yPrior +1.1% There’s no change to the core reading, as it holds at a similar figure to July. If anything, SNB can feel comfortable in cutting rates further if need be. As things stand, the odds of a 25 bps move later this month are at ~66% with the remainder priced

I noted earlier that: ECB speakers on Tuesday may be light on comments re the economy and monetary policy That looks to be the same from Breeden: 1245 GMT / 0845 US Eastern time – Bank of England Deputy Governor Sarah Breeden moderates a panel on financial regulation at the ECB This article was written

Justin was all over the news of infighting at the European Central Bank for what comes after September: A growing rift at the ECB on the economic outlook? Its the same old doves vs. hawks: doves are arguing that the economy is much weaker than thought, which could accelerate a weakening in price pressureshawks are

The weekly survey of consumer sentiment rose to 83.1 ANZ note: ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence rose 0.5ptsInflation expectations eased to 4.6%, its lowest point since late 2021 Household confidence in the future financial situation rose to a 5mth high, back into positive territory This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

Current Account data from Australia for the April to June quarter of 2024 Australia Current Account AUD -10.7bn, a huge miss expected -5.0bn, prior -4.9bn Australia Net Exports Contribution 0.2% … a big miss and a big hit to Q2 GDP expected 0.6% prior -0.9% Public sector demand will add approximately 0.4% to Q2 GDP.

Cost of living pressures in Japan from high energy prices prompting government sup[port measures. Japan will spend about 989bn yen from reserve funds to cover energy subsidies The Bank of Japan is trying to fuel inflation … I guess higher energy prices are ‘bad ‘ inflation though, right? Bank of Japan Governor Ueda This article

The People’s Bank of China set the onshore yuan (CNY) reference rate for the trading session ahead. USD/CNY is the onshore yuan. Its permitted to trade plus or minus 2% from this daily reference rate.CNH is the offshore yuan. USD /CNH has no restrictions on its trading range.A significantly stronger or weaker rate than expected

Bloomberg carried the report overnight. Bloomberg is gated, but in brief. In July, Japan started restricting exports of 23 types of semiconductor manufacturing equipment, aligning with U.S. efforts to limit China’s ability to produce advanced chips. China has responded by warning Japan of significant economic consequences if Japan further limits the sales and servicing of

Good morning, afternoon and evening all. Any charts, technical analysis, trade ideas, thoughts, views, ForexLive traders would like to share and discuss with fellow ForexLive traders, please do so: This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

The data from Australia today will include a key input to the Q2 GDP data that is due on due on Wednesday 4 September. In the Q2 Current Account data will be the figure for the net export contribution to GDP. The consensus estimate I have seen is for 0.6%, while Q1 was -0.9%. estimates

Recapping the two China Manufacturing PMIs for August – mixed signalsJapan Q2 capex recap fuels optimism for a domestic recovery, and case for more BOJ hikesChina Caixin Manufacturing PMI August 2024: 50.4 (expected 50.0, prior 49.8)HSBC with two reasons the USD should strengthenAustralian job ads down 2.1% m/m in August (prior -2.7%)Australian data – Q2

HSBC is looking for a bounce for the USD, saying that: 1. The dollar looks to have weakened excessively relative to dovish expectation for Fed rate cuts 2. Says the economy in the US does not warrant the market pricing of the rate of Fed easing (referring to expectations of 100bp of cuts by year

People’s Bank of China USD/CNY reference rate is due around 0115 GMT. The People’s Bank of China (PBOC), China’s central bank, is responsible for setting the daily midpoint of the yuan (also known as renminbi or RMB). The PBOC follows a managed floating exchange rate system that allows the value of the yuan to fluctuate

Prior 43.5 That’s a marked improvement as output returns to positive territory on the month. That said, it’s too early to call this a return to a sustainable recovery just yet. A stronger franc currency, something which the SNB is warning about, could come back to bite at the manufacturing sector still. Anyway, here’s the

US markets are closed on Monday for Labor Day but will come to life on Tuesday including some notable economic data. The highlight is the 10 am ET release of the August ISM manufacturing index. In July, the survey disappointed with a fall to 46.8 compared to 48.8 expected. This month, economists expect a rebound

The far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) party looks set to win in a regional election, according to exit polls. AfD is projected to secure 33.5% of the vote in the Thuringia state parliamentary elections ahead of the conservative Christian Democrats (CDU), who are expected to get 24.5%. In Saxony, another region holding elections, the AfD

Manufacturing PMI 49.4 vs. 48.5 expected and 47.4 prior. Key findings: Declines in production and new orders only modest in August. Firms raise staffing levels for first time since April as outlook brightens. Charge inflation returns after nearly a year-and-a-half of reductions. Comment: Commenting on the PMI data, Dr Tariq Kamal Chaudhry Economist at Hamburg

Multi-asset Forex and CFD broker, FP Markets, further cemented its position as one of the industry’s global leaders, claiming two prestigious awards at the Finance Magnates Pacific Summit (fmps:24). The company won ‘Best Forex Spreads APAC’ and ‘Best Trading Experience APAC’ at the closing event of the two-day summit which was held on Thursday 29

Final Manufacturing PMI 52.5 vs. 52.5 expected and 52.1 prior. Key findings: Manufacturing PMI at 52.5 in August. Broad-based growth by sector. Domestic market drives new contract wins. Comment: Rob Dobson, Director at S&P Global Market Intelligence “The UK manufacturing sector remained a positive contributor to broader economic growth in August. The headline PMI hit

It’s a busy week ahead in terms of economic events. Monday kicks off with a few notable releases, including the final manufacturing PMI for the eurozone. It’s also a bank holiday in Canada and the U.S. in observance of Labor Day. On Tuesday, Switzerland will release its CPI data, while the U.S. will report the

Rate cuts by year-end Fed: 99 bps (69% probability of 25 bps rate cut at the upcoming meeting) ECB: 58 bps (98% probability of 25 bps rate cut at the upcoming meeting) BoE: 39 bps (78% probability of no change at the upcoming meeting) BoC: 75 bps (79% probability of 25 bps rate cut at

Reports on Libyan production have been mixed, with some saying it was resuming while others say it’s still halted. WTI crude is flat at the moment after initially falling at the open, highlighting the uncertainty. The latest report comes from S&P Global, which says that up to 230k bpd has been restored in three fields

I wouldn’t worry too much about the system in the northern Gulf but the pair of disturbances in the Atlantic both have a 40% probability of developing into tropical cyclones in the next week, according to the NHC. The one in the Antilles also looks to be tracking towards the Gulf of Mexico. This article

Data from Japan’s finance ministry for spending on plant and equipment in April-June 2024: +7.4% y/y expected +9.9%, prior +6.8%for the q/q, +1.2% Capex is an input to the GDP data for Q2 due on September 9 Other data showed sales rose 3.5% y/y, while recurring profits rose 13.2% y/y Japan Inc. does not appear

As posted over the weekend, the official NBS Manufacturing PMI in China for August fell to 49.1 from 49.4 in Julyexpected was 49.5 fourth straight month of contractionsteepest decline since February A glance at some of the sub indexes, these three fell for the fourth consecutive month: output 49.8 vs 50.1 in Julynew orders 48.9

With the US on holiday, European traders had little incentive to get markets moving today. There was some early selling that recovered for a flat close. Stoxx 600 flatGerman DAX +0.1%Francis CAC +0.2%UK’s FTSE 100 -0.2%Spain’s IBEX flatItaly’s FTSE MIB -0.1% I would expect price action to perk up tomorrow and September is typically a

There are still 60-70 living hostages in Palestine and Biden has said he wants to conclude a broader deal in Palestine before leaving office. Presumably he wants it done before an election as that should help Democrats’ chances. Internal pressure is also rising for Netanyahu after huge protests on the weekend. He’s also facing pressure

Italy Final Q2 GDP Y/Y 0.2% vs. 0.9% expected and 0.6% prior.Italy Final Q2 GDP Q/Q 0.9% vs. 0.2% expected and 0.3% prior. No changes to the preliminary report. This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at www.forexlive.com.

OPEC+ has been on a push for compliance for the past two weeks and it looks to have achieved some success. There could be something of a carrot/stick approach here with other producers perhaps extending cuts in October. WTI is now trading flat on the day. This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

PMI falls to 48.5, lowest since August 2022New orders and production decline acceleratesCost inflation hits 21-month high, driven by raw material shortages and peso depreciationJob shedding continues for fourth straight monthEmployment decreased for the fourth monthExport sales saw a substantial drop, particularly from US customers The Mexican manufacturing sector took another hit in August, with

Prior 44.0 Despite a positive revision, the figure is still a mild drop compared to the July reading. That continues to mark a poor state of affairs for French manufacturing in Q3. HCOB notes that: “The state of the French manufacturing sector is deteriorating. What seemed like a recovery of the industrial sector at the

Headlines: Weekly update on interest rates expectationsA growing rift at the ECB on the economic outlook?SNB total sight deposits w.e. 30 August CHF 456.7 bn vs CHF 463.6 bn priorItaly Q2 final GDP 0.2% vs 0.2% Q/Q expectedEurozone August final manufacturing PMI 45.8 vs 45.6 prelimSwitzerland August manufacturing PMI 49.0 vs 43.5 expectedUK August final

ANZ-Indeed Job Ads fell for the 7th consecutive month in August to be down 15.3% so far in 2024. Earlier: Australian data – Q2 Business Inventories +0.1% (expected -0.1%, prior +1.3%)Australian July Building Permits +10.4% m/m (2.5% expected) AUD update, not doing a lot on the barrage of data releases: This article was written by

Domestic sight deposits CHF 448.6 bn vs CHF 455.7 bn prior This will be an interesting spot to watch after the SNB commented on the franc perhaps being a little too strong. The drop in the past week is certainly not suggestive of that but we’ll see how the trend develops in the coming weeks

Happy Monday, especially for those of you who get the day off. It’s Labor Day and that means that markets are closed in the United States and Canada. The FX market has been quiet throughout the world today, with the exception of JPY trading and some NZD weakness. I expected to see more oil softness

Eurostoxx flatGermany DAX +0.1%France CAC 40 flatUK FTSE -0.1%Spain IBEX flatItaly FTSE MIB flat Given that it is a North American holiday today, there won’t be much to stir up the appetite in markets. All eyes will be on the jobs-related data from the US in the days ahead. So, expect it to be a

There isn’t anything major to take note of for today. And that is understandable, given a holiday for North American markets. So, technically the week only really kicks into gear tomorrow. We’ll have jobs-related data from the US to work through during the week. So, markets might not stay quiet for too long in the

Final Manufacturing PMI 42.4 vs. 42.1 expected and 43.2 prior. Key findings: HCOB Germany Manufacturing PMI at 42.4 (Jul: 43.2). 5-month low. HCOB Germany Manufacturing PMI Output Index at 42.8 (Jul: 42.5). 2-month high. New orders drop at quickest rate for nine months. Comment: Commenting on the PMI data, Dr. Cyrus de la Rubia, Chief

Fundamental Overview Gold continues to trade in a tight range as the market awaits the key catalysts this week. As a reminder, the Fed is now very focused on the labour market as Fed Chair Powell said that they will not welcome any more weakness and will do everything they can to keep it strong.

WSJ Fedwatcher Nick Timiraos is out with his latest and it’s upbeat on the disinflation process: Decomposing the July PCE shows disinflation over the last three months continues to be relatively broad-based: • sequential improvement for housing and nonhousing services • continued deflation in goods This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

Japanese corporate spending on plant and equipment surged in the second quarter: Japan Q2 business capex +7.4% y/y (vs. expected +9.9%, prior +6.8%) Analyst takes I’m seeing are noting the data is fuelling optimism for a domestic-led recovery and bolstering the case for more interest rate hikes from the Bank of Japan in the coming

Preconditions for EDIS are now met, and moving forward will be importantLegislators should resist the temptation to relax banking regulationProfit levels are relatively high, which provides a good opportunity for banks to invest in strengthening resilience EDIS is European Deposit Insurance Scheme. It’s a proposed EU-level insurance system intended to protect depositors in case a

Australia Final manufacturing PMI from Judo Bank / S&P Global for August 2024, comes in at the highest level in three months @ 48.5 prior 47.5 Flash reading here: Australia preliminary August PMI: Manufacturing 48.7(prior 47.5) Services 52.2(prior 50.4) Commentary from the report, in summary: not a manufacturing recession, but an extended soft landingcapacity constraints

The dollar battled in month-end trading last week and that kept a lid on AUD/USD, with sellers also holding at the July high around the figure level. The key level there will remain a focus this week, especially with the dollar side of the equation set to come under heavy scrutiny. It’s all about jobs-related

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German DAX futures flatUK FTSE futures +0.3% The risk mood is not up to much with overall conditions keeping more lightly changed. It is the same in the major currencies space, with the dollar keeping within 15 pips change against the rest of the bloc. With it being a US and Canadian holiday, expect a

Over the weekend we had the official PMIs: China August Manufacturing PMI 49.1 (expected 49.5), Services 50.3 (expected 50.0) More detail: ICYMI – China’s official August manufacturing PMI fell to its lowest since February The private, Caixin S&P Global manufacturing PMI is much better, coming in at 50.4. From the report, in summary: Demand picked

Good morning, afternoon and evening all. Any charts, technical analysis, trade ideas, thoughts, views, ForexLive traders would like to share and discuss with fellow ForexLive traders, please do so: This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

Thats an impressive result, well above estimate. This data can be volatile though, depending on multi-unit approvals. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

Prior 45.8 The positive revision is just masking the troubles that are continuing to surface in the Eurozone manufacturing sector. Output continues to suffer while new order inflows fell at the quickest pace this year so far in August. Employment conditions are also starting to be impacted with business confidence sliding to a five-month low.

Australia Melbourne Institute Inflation August 2024 -0.1% m/m (prior 0.4%), its first drop in 6 months and 2.5% y/y for a three-year low (prior 2.8%) Trimmed mean inflation gauge flat m/m in August lowest in 10 monthsand 2.2% y/y, a 32-month low of 2.2% (vs. 2.6% prior) Lower CPI numbers welcome, but we’ll have to

Amega’s reputation as a reliable brokerage firm has been meticulously built on three simple principles: unwavering dedication, complete transparency, and unrelenting innovation. These ideals have been imprinted in the company’s DNA since day one, becoming not only the inspiration but also the driving force behind Amega’s meteoric rise from a small startup to one of

As is usual for a Monday morning, market liquidity is very thin until it improves as more Asian centres come online … prices are liable to swing around, so take care out there. Indicative rates, little change from late Friday: EUR/USD 1.1046USD/JPY 146.18GBP/USD 1.3128USD/CHF 0.8497USD/CAD 1.3492AUD/USD 0.6769NZD/USD 0.6249 This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan

China’s EU Mission responding to the EU remarks about South China Sea dispute: European Union is not a party to the South China Sea issue and has no right to point fingers on the issueThe European side’s repeated ‘speculation’ on the freedom of navigation issue does not do any good to the EU’s own interests

Today is going to be a synthetic Sunday as we have the US on holiday and we don’t have major market moving releases. In fact, we will just get the final manufacturing PMIs throughout the European session. We might see the rangebound price action from last week continue today as we await the first big

CNBC had the snippet on Friday on Goldman Sachs ramping up their estimate for US economic growth this quarter. The investment bank boosted its Q3 GDP tracking estimate by 0.2pp to 2.7%, q/q annualized. GS cited an improved outlook for consumer spending. This followed a jump for incomes and expenditures: Personal income +0.3% vs +0.2%

So, what’d I miss? It’s shaping up to be a bit of a lackluster start to the new week, with it being a North American holiday. The dollar is mixed and lightly changed overall after having seen a bit of a push and pull in trading last week. Nvidia earnings looked like it might’ve caused

Manufacturing PMI 50.5 vs. 51.5 expected and 51.0 prior. Key findings: Increase in new work registered.Output and employment both decline. Confidence in the outlook sinks to lowest of year so far. Comment: Commenting on the PMI data, Jonas Feldhusen, Junior Economist at Hamburg Commercial Bank, said: “The trends in Spain’s manufacturing sector keep showing signs

The People’s Bank of China set the onshore yuan (CNY) reference rate for the trading session ahead. USD/CNY is the onshore yuan. Its permitted to trade plus or minus 2% from this daily reference rate.CNH is the offshore yuan. USD /CNH has no restrictions on its trading range.A significantly stronger or weaker rate than expected

That will sap quite a bit of energy from markets to kick start the new week at least. But it’s a brand new month and we’re already in September now in 2024. How time flies. And with it being the first week of a new month, the focus will of course shift towards more US

The move higher for USD/JPY on Friday has extended already in early trade. As I post its just after 8.30am in Tokyo and 7.30 am in Singapore and Hong Kong. There is no fresh news nor data, and the data agenda is unlikely to have too much impact: Economic calendar in Asia Monday, September 2,

June quarter, 2024 data for Australia: Inventories: +0.1% expected -0.1%, prior +1.3% Company operating profit: -5.3% expected 0.0%, prior -2.5% Inventories will be input to the Q2 GDP data. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

Well, this is a potential rift that could impact the rate cut debate in the months ahead. It is being reported that some policymakers are wanting to focus more on recession fears while others are more adamant on sticking it through the inflation battle. A rate cut in September is pretty much locked in but

The flash reading for this is here: Japan data – August flash Manufacturing PMI 49.5 (prior 49.1) Services 54.0 (prior 53.7) The final reading is 49.8, still below 50 and thus still in contraction. more to come This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

Over the weekend we had the official PMIs showing manufacturing contracting: China August Manufacturing PMI 49.1 (expected 49.5), Services 50.3 (expected 50.0)ICYMI – China’s official August manufacturing PMI fell to its lowest since FebruaryThe manufacturing result at 49.1 marks a six-month low and the fourth consecutive month below the 50-point threshold that separates expansion from

The US Labor Day holiday is Monday, September 2nd. The full trading hours schedule is here (there is a summary screenshot just below): Globex Trading Hours and Holiday Schedules Summary, please note ALL TIMES ARE CENTRAL time (add an hour for US Eastern time ): Screenshot via NinjaTrader This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan

Reserve Bank of Australia Governor Bullock is speaking twice on Thursday September 5. At noon local time, Bullock will address The Anika Foundation, Sydney 0200 GMT, 2200 US Eastern time (Wednesday evening) At 7 pm Sydney time Bullock will speak in a Fireside Chat (pre-recorded) at the Women in Banking & Finance Awards 0900 GMT,

On Saturday we had the first round of Chinese PMIs for August: China August Manufacturing PMI 49.1 (expected 49.5), Services 50.3 (expected 50.0)manufacturing PMI has fallen for six months in a row49.1 is a six-month low factory gate prices were their lowest in 14 months (42.0, sharply down from already weak 46.3 in July)the sub

Mon: US & Canada (Labor Day), EZ & UK Final Manufacturing PMIs (Aug), Chinese Caixin Manufacturing PMI Final (Aug)Tue: Swiss CPI (Aug), Swiss GDP (Q2), Turkish CPI (Aug), US ISM Manufacturing PMI (Aug), Final Manufacturing PMI (Aug)Wed: BoC & NBP Policy Announcements; Australian GDP (Q2), Chinese Caixin Services PMI (Aug), EZ & UK Composite/Services Final

UPCOMING EVENTS: Monday: US/Canada Holiday, China Caixin Manufacturing PMI, Swiss Manufacturing PMI.Tuesday: Swiss CPI, Swiss Q2 GDP, Canada Manufacturing PMI, US ISM Manufacturing PMI.Wednesday: Australia Q2 GDP, China Caixin Services PMI, Eurozone PPI, BoC Policy Decision, US Job Openings, Fed Beige Book.Thursday: Japan Average Cash Earnings, Swiss Unemployment Rate, Eurozone Retail Sales, US ADP, US

August 2024 official Chinese PMIs from the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS): Composite is 50.1 prior50.2 August Manufacturing PMI 49.1 expected 49.5, prior49.4 Services 50.3 expected 50.0, prior 50.2 — The Chinese economy has been showing, and continues to show, a patchy and uneven recovery. Key trouble spots include: an uncertain property sector outlook, the

There was no lack of drama in the final day of equity trading in what was a wild ride in August. The S&P 500 opened strongly and then gave it all back to trade in negative territory at midday. However some steady bids emerged in the afternoon before a massive wave of buying late. Much

Goldman Sachs plans to layoff 3-4% of its workforce or between 1300 and 1800 people, according to the WSJ. This shouldn’t come as a surprise as the company trims 2-7% of its workforce annually on performance factors. The layoffs have started and will continue through the autumn. The cutthroat culture finally appears to be making

US July core PCE +2.6% y/y vs +2.7% expectedOPEC+ is likely to proceed with a planned gradual production increase from Oct — reportUS August UMich final consumer sentiment 67.9 vs 68.0 expectedCanada Q2 GDP +2.1% q/q annualized vs +1.6% expectedDallas Fed trimmed mean PCE price index for July 1.7% versus 1.8% in JuneUS weekly Baker

WTI crude posted an ugly finish to the week, falling $2.33 to $73.57 on Friday. Oil rallied strongly to start the week and was still holding in positive territory early today but slumped when Reuters, citing sources, reported that OPEC still plans to start gradually bringing on production in October. That led to a heavy

The main driver of US dollar strength over the past number of years was ‘US exceptionalism’. That’s meant stronger growth and higher US interest rates. The stronger growth narrative is still in place — even if it requires a deficit at 7% of GDP — but Fed Chairman Jerome Powell has deconstructed the second part

We’ve been in a raging four-year bull market in most things since the pandemic but one month missed the memo: September. Here I highlight the S&P 500 over the past four Septembers, all negative months. Of the 52 months since April 2020, just 17 of them have been negative, or 32.7%. However, of the negative

Prelim was 67.8Prior was 66.4Current conditions 61.3 vs 60.9 prelim (62.7 prior)Expectations 72.1 vs 72.1 prelim (68.8 prior)1-year inflation 2.8% vs 2.9% prelim5-year inflation 3.0% vs 3.0% prelim Comments from survey director Joanne Hsu: Consumer sentiment confirmed its early-month reading; after drifting down for four months, sentiment inched up 1.5 index points above July and

Prior was +0.2% Services industries +0.1% vs +0.1% priorGoods -0.4% vs +0.4% priorManufacturing -1.5% vs +1.0% priorJuly advance GDP 0.0% Real gross domestic product was essentially unchanged in June, following a 0.1% increase in May. Goods-producing industries (-0.4%) saw its largest decrease since December 2023 as declines in manufacturing and construction were partially offset by

We saw some US dollar demand into the London fix all week and that was a preview of today’s flows, as the dollar accelerated into the final fix of the month. USD/JPY touched a session high up 76 pips to 145.74, while the Australian dollar also fell to a session low at 0.6775. The euro

Global equity semi-permabear David Rosenberg is out with a new commentary and he’s wading into the foreign exchange market with a strong case to sell USD/JPY. He said it “could be the most glaring price anomaly on the planet” and it carries the headline “Want to make a 30% return with little risk? Here’s a

Oil is having a rough one today, down 3% after a report said OPEC was planning to proceed with the October production rise. Oil rigs unchanged at 48.Gas rigs -2 This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

ECB Rehn: Falling inflation, weaker growth makes case for September rate cut. – This should come as a surprise to absolutely no one This article was written by Arno V Venter at www.forexlive.com.

Today is the busiest day of the week in terms of data releases but unfortunately they are unlikely to change much in the bigger picture. In the European session we get the Eurozone Flash CPI and the Unemployment Rate, while in the American session we have the Canadian GDP and the US PCE report. There

Prior month -4.2%Industrial production MoM 2.8% vs 3.3% estimateIndustrial Production YoY 2.6% vs 2.9% estimate. Previously 3.7% revised from 3.8%IP forecast 2 month ahead (Sept) -3.3% vs Prev 0.7%IP Forecast 1 month ahead (Aug) 2.2% vs prev 6.5% This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

Sentiment is a bit mixed across markets this morning. FX: In FX we have the JPY (safe haven) leading the pack after a better-than-expected Tokyo CPI number, with the AUD and NZD (high betas) second and third strongest. The EUR is leading the pack on the downside, most likely still due to the big deceleration

Most retail traders believe that the win rate is the most important metric in trading and it’s usually the first thing they look at when searching for a strategy. That has to do with human psychology as we don’t like pain and losses, so we try to avoid that as much as possible. Unfortunately, in

12 month trimmed mean 2.7% vs 2.8% prior Looking through the data here are some notable changes: Eggs: Massive increase of 90.9% (annualized 1-month change)Window coverings: Large decrease of -27.3%Used autos: Significant decrease of -25.2%Jewelry: Notable decrease of -20.4%Natural gas: Decrease of -7.7%Physician services: Slight decrease of -2.2%Electricity: Slight increase of 1.3%Fresh milk: Substantial increase

On the face of it, the Q2 Canadian GDP report looked good today at 2.1% annualized compared to 1.6% expected. It also handily beat the Bank of Canada’s forecast of 1.5%. The problem is that the composition of growth was in all the wrong places. Consumer spending rose at just a 0.6% annualized rate while

Prior was +2.6%PCE core +0.2% m/m vs +0.2% expected (unrounded +0.161%)Prior m/m +0.2%Headline inflation PCE +2.5% y/y vs +2.6% expected (Prior +2.5%)Deflator +0.2% m/m vs +0.2% expected (prior was +0.1%)Unrounded m/m +0.155% Consumer spending and income for July: Personal income +0.3% vs +0.2% expected. Prior month +0.2% Personal spending +0.5% vs +0.5% expected. Prior month

Villeroy is out with some comments in the French press: The market view is reasonable on rates at 2-2.50% in 2025The ECB must be wary of risk of insufficient growthFull interview The euro is flat today at 1.1075. This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

Overview of Market Sectors Today’s stock market heatmap reveals a broad spectrum of performances across various sectors, with the tech and consumer cyclical sectors taking the spotlight through impressive gains. Meanwhile, the energy sector faced notable declines, dragging down related stocks. Tech and Consumer Cyclical Shine The technology sector, led by semiconductor companies such as

Eurozone flash HICP YY: 2.2% vs 2.2% expected Eurozone flash ex F&E HICP YY: % vs 2.7% expected Eurozone flash ex F, E, A & T HICP YY: % vs 2.8% expected This article was written by Arno V Venter at www.forexlive.com.

ECB Muller: confidence is growing in a September rate cutECB Muller: the policy path after the September meeting is less certain This article was written by Arno V Venter at www.forexlive.com.

Reuters poll – U.S. home prices to rise 5.4% in 2024, 3.3% in 2025, and 3.4% in 2026 (vs 5.0%, 3.3%, and 3.4% in May poll).Reuters poll – U.S. existing home sales to rise to 4.15 million unit rate in Q4, 4.24 in Q1 2025 (vs 4.28 and 4.40 million in May poll). This article

It was a strong week that finished with some gains, though all indices were well off the session highs. Stoxx 600 +0.2%German DAX +0.1%Francis CAC flatUK’s FTSE 100 flatSpain’s IBEX +0.4%Italy’s FTSE MIB +0.6% On the week: Stoxx 600 +1.4% (record weekly close, fourth week of gains)German DAX +1.6% (record close)Francis CAC +0.8%UK’s FTSE 100

EU’s Von der Leyen in Prague at GLOBSEC Forum: Integration of Ukraine in the European Union is for us at the heart of our peace effort.EU’s Von der Leyen: Protecting Europe is first and foremost Europe’s duty.EU’s Von der Leyen: NATO must remain centre of our collective defence but need much stronger European pillar.EU’s Von

Fundamental Overview After the strong push lower from last Friday when Fed Chair Powell delivered a more dovish than expected speech at the Jackson Hole Symposium, the USDCHF pair hasn’t moved much as the lack of catalysts this week kept the price action at bay. The market is waiting for the key economic releases next

China Markets Regulator: Will further guide Alibaba Group in improving compliance, quality of service, efficiency. This article was written by Arno V Venter at www.forexlive.com.

Fundamental Overview Crude oil has been on a seesaw this week as we got a rally on Monday on the news that Libya was going to close down all oil fields and halt production and exports. That spike eventually got faded and prices even fell below the level seen before the news. Yesterday, we got

OPEC+ is set to proceed with a planned oil output hike from October, as Libyan outages and pledged cuts by some members to compensate for overproduction counter the impact of sluggish demand, six sources from the producer group told Reuters. Eight OPEC+ members are scheduled to boost output by 180,000 barrels per day in October,

US markets are set to open higher today with futures seeing the S&P 500 up 0.5%, the Nasdaq-100 up 0.9% and the Russell 2000 up 0.4%. Here are the biggest movers pre-market from Newsquawk: $ADSK +5%: Rev. & EPS beat; Exec given its momentum in Q2, lifting FY billings, rev., EPS & FCF outlook$DELL +4%:

The US dollar jumped in the aftermath of the PCE report, though I’m not sure that correlation equals causation. The PCE report was a touch low, highlighting the downtrend in inflation. That should have weighed on the dollar and did initially, albeit slightly. A short time later the dollar rebounded and Treasury yields inched higher

Fed: 100% probability of a cut ECB: 100% probability of a cut BoC: 100% probability of a cut SNB: 100% probability of a cut BoE: 77% probability of a hold (23% probability of a cut) RBA: 94% probability of a hold (6% probability of a cut) BoJ: 96% probability of a hold (4% probability of

While the EURUSD and the GBPUSD trades between the 100 and 200-hour MAs. The USDCHF is also trading between those two MAs as the last trading of the day of the weeks gets started The 100-hour MA is below the current price at 0.8448 (blue line in the chart below). The higher 200-hour MA is

There has been some talk that the planned OPEC+ barrel return would be pushed back but it’s still coming, according to a report from Reuters that cites six sources. I’m not terribly surprised by the messaging. US oil companies set budgets in Sept/Oct and OPEC surely doesn’t want them to set out to increase production

Fundamental Overview After the strong push lower from last Friday when Fed Chair Powell delivered a more dovish than expected speech at the Jackson Hole Symposium, the USDJPY pair hasn’t moved much as the lack of catalysts this week kept the price action at bay. The market is waiting for the key economic releases next

USD inflows: The bank expects rebalancing flows to favor the USD, driven primarily by the need to shift out of overperforming EUR-denominated assets and into USD assets. Despite the broader trend of USD depreciation observed recently, the near-term flows are expected to support the Dollar, potentially mitigating some of the recent downside pressure. EUR outflows:

The PBOC set the USDCNY midpoint at 7.1124. That is the strongest level since June 13. The estimate was 7.1116. The prior was at 7.1299. This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

The economic releases today will be highlighted by Japan retail sales along with Tokyo core CPI. Australia will also release retail sales. Below is a list of the economic releases in the Asia-Pacific session. 06:45pm NZD (a): Building Consents m/m – Previous -13. 8%7:30pm JPY (m): Tokyo Core CPI y/y – Forecast: 2.2%, Previous: 2.2%7:30pm

German import prices MM: -0.4% vs 0.0% expected German import prices YY: 0.9% vs 0.7% prior This article was written by Arno V Venter at www.forexlive.com.

ECB Muller says confidence growth in Sep cut but after that is less certainEU commission chief says must play stronger role in defenceAUD the strongest and CHF the weakestJapan’s MOF reports zero yen intervention from July 30 to Aug 28Eurozone flash HICP YY 2.2% vs 2.2% expectedECB Kazaks says open to discussing a September cutBoE

At the resumption of trading in the futures market, the e-mini S&P contract is up 0.16%. Dell reported after the closing shares are currently up 2.95%. Nvidia which notes their earnings yesterday after close is trading up 0.42% after declining -6.38% today. Apple shares are trading up 0.13% after rising 1.46% yesterdayMeta is trading up

ECB’s Schnabel: Incoming data have broadly confirmed the baseline outlook.ECB’s Schnabel: Confidence is not knowledge. History will not judge our intentions but our success in delivering on our mandate.ECB’s Schnabel: The closer policy rates get to the upper band of estimates of the neutral rate of interest, the more cautious we should be to avoid

Reuters poll: China home prices growth expected at -8.5% y/y in 2024 (vs -5.0% forecast in May poll).Reuters poll: China home prices growth expected at -3.9% y/y in 2025 (vs 0.0% forecast in May poll).Reuters poll: China property sales expected at -16.0% y/y in 2024 (vs -10.0% forecast in May poll).Reuters poll: China property investment

BoE consumer credit: B vs 1.300B expected UK mortgage lending: B vs 2.450B expected UK mortgage approvals: K vs 60.500K expected This article was written by Arno V Venter at www.forexlive.com.

Dell announced their earnings after the close and beat on the top and bottom lines: EPS $1.89 versus $1.71 expectedRevenues $25.03 billion versus $24.14 billion expected Dell shares closed at $110.74 and are trading higher by $7.10 or 6.41% at $117.85. Dell shares traded as high as $114.44 intraday and as low as $108.10. At

Japan currency intervention amounted to 0 yen from July 30 to Aug 28 – MOF. – not that anyone suspecting intervention of during those dates of course. This article was written by Arno V Venter at www.forexlive.com.

It’s been a fairly choppy morning in FX so far. The AUD is the strongest but neck and neck with the Pound for the strongest on the session. The CHF is the weakest, with the JPY not to far behind it. Eurozone data this morning has been mixed with GDP data out of France printing

The closing changes look small but it was certainly a lively day in North American equity markets. It looked bleak in the pre-market yesterday after Nvidia earnings but the market later shook it off and opened slightly higher. That was followed by some strong buying that ultimately flopped as heavy afternoon sellers hit and ultimately

Swiss KOF indicator 101.6 vs 100.6 expected This article was written by Arno V Venter at www.forexlive.com.

French GDP QQ final: 0.2% vs 0.3% expected French GDP YY final: % vs 1.1% expected This article was written by Arno V Venter at www.forexlive.com.

Tokyo CPI for August 2024 Excluding Fresh Food & Energy 1.6 % y/y vs 1.1% last monthExcluding Fresh Food 2.4% y/y vs 2.2% est. Prior month 2.2%Headline CPI 2.6% vs 2.2% last month The higher Tokyo inflation is not having a big impact on the USDJPY. The range for the day is only about 20

German Unemployment Rate: 6.0% vs 6.0% expected German Unemployment Change: K vs 16K expected This article was written by Arno V Venter at www.forexlive.com.

Spanish current account balance: 5.02B vs 5.56B prior This article was written by Arno V Venter at www.forexlive.com.

Another busy day on the calendar today: EU session: For the European session the market will be keeping a close eye on the French inflation data after the downside surprise we saw in both the Spanish and German inflation data yesterday. The EUR got a nudge lower on the data, and if the French data

French prelim HICP YY: 2.2% vs 2.1% expected French prelim HICP MM: % vs 0.5% expected French CPI YY: 1.9% vs 1.8% expected French CPI MM: % vs 0.5% expected This article was written by Arno V Venter at www.forexlive.com.

Yesterday at this time, the price of gold was trying to stay below the 100/200 hour MAs near $2510 (blue and green lines). Sellers could not keep the pressure on and the sellers turned to buyers. After some intraday volatility yesterday, buyers returned and pushed the price back up to the ceiling area between $2526.43

ECB Kazaks: Services inflation remains stickyECB Kazaks: Open to a September discussion on another rate cut This article was written by Arno V Venter at www.forexlive.com.

Goldman Sachs highlights a dramatic shift in market sentiment towards USD shorts as positioning adjusts ahead of anticipated Fed rate cuts. Despite tactical shifts, structural flows and high attractiveness of US assets may limit the USD’s decline. Key Points: Positioning Shift: Significant USD shorts have emerged, reflecting a market sentiment leaning towards USD weakness. This

French producer prices YY: -5.4% vs -6.0% prior French producer prices MM: 0.2% vs -0.3% prior This article was written by Arno V Venter at www.forexlive.com.

Bitcoin has followed the broad market lower today as the early positive momentum in the risk trade comes unwound. Shares of Nvidia are down more than 6% following earnings. Last week, it looked like bitcoin was ready to recoup the July-August decline but this week has seen steady selling. Today there was a strong rebound

UK nationwide house prices YY: 2.4% vs 2.9% expected UK nationwide house prices MM: -0.2% vs 0.2% expected This article was written by Arno V Venter at www.forexlive.com.

SocGen highlights that the unwinding of CAD shorts is still in progress, noting that substantial CAD short positions accumulated earlier this year have begun to reverse, impacting USD/CAD. Key Points: Unwinding of Yen Shorts: The recent focus has been on the unwind of large yen short positions, which have normalized since early August. This shift

Japan housing starts YY: -0.2% vs -0.1% expected This article was written by Arno V Venter at www.forexlive.com.

Japan construction orders YY: 62.8% vs -19.7% prior This article was written by Arno V Venter at www.forexlive.com.

Gold buyers and sellers continue to battle. Ceiling is stalling the rallies.Australia Retail sales for July 0.0% vs 0.3% estimatePBOC sets the USDCNY midpoint at 7.1124 vs 7.1116 estimateJapan retail sales YoY for July 2.6% vs 2.9% estimateJapan Preliminary Industrial production MoM 2.8% vs 3.3% estimateTokyo area Aug inflation data: Headline 2.6% y/y (prior 2.2%)Japan

Prio rmonth -17.0% revised from -13.8%)Building consents for July 26.2% The bounce back gain is the largets since May 2020. Last months decline was the largest since February 2021. Looking at the history, the ups-and-downs are pretty evident. “A higher number of working days contributed to the increase in homes consented in July 2024 when

Shares of Best Buy are having their best day since 2020 after reporting strong earnings. The company raised its fiscal-year guidance and now expects to see full-year adjusted earnings per share in the range of $6.10 to $6.35, up from a prior range of $5.75 to $6.20. It wasn’t all good news for the economy

Prior month 3.8% Retail sales for July 2.6% vs 2.9% estimateLarge Scale Retail Sales 1.0% vs 7% last month The USDJPY is little changed. This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

Australia’s S&P/ASX200 index and Japan’s Nikkei are trading higher by about 0.36% in early trading. Japan’s retail sales came in weaker than expected at 2.6% versus 2.8%. Duction was also weaker at 2.8% versus 3.6% forecast. The unemployment rate was also higher at 2.7% versus 2.5%. So weaker than expected data from manufacturing and for

In geopolitical news: Ukraine is reportedly conducting drone attacks on Russia’s Belgorod, Boronezh and Kirsk provinces. This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

Prior 0.5%Retail Sales (Final) 0.0% vs 0.3% estimate Details: Clothing, footwear, and personal accessories: -0.5% (largest fall) Department stores: -0.4% Cafes, restaurants, and takeaway food: -0.2% Household goods retailing: 0.0% (unchanged) Other retailing: 0.0% (unchanged) Food retailing: 0.2% (only industry with a rise) Ben Dorber, ABS head of retail statistics, said: “After rises in the

US Q2 GDP second estimate +3.0% vs +2.8% expectedUS initial jobless claims 231K vs 232K expectedUS July advance goods trade balance -102.66 billion vs -96.56 billion priorECB’s Nagel: Timely return to price stabilty cannot be taken for grantedUS sells seven-year notes at 3.770% vs 3.761% WIFitch affirms USA credit rating at AA+ with a stable

As the market heads toward a close for the week, I take a look at what happened this week technically and where we may be going today and into next week for the 3 major currency pairs – the EURUSD, USDJPY and GBPUSD. Be aware and prepared for the next break in those pairs. This

Prior month 2.5%Job/Applicants ratio 1.24 versus expected 1.23. Previous 1.23 This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

Shares of Nvidia are dragging down the broader indexes as they fall 5.4% to the lowest in regular trading. NVDA is down $6.65 to $118.95 as the market (and the options market) continues to digest yesterday’s earnings report. A host of analysts have boosted price targets since the release but the market hasn’t cooperated. There

China’s Commerce Ministry: Will not impose provisional anti-dumping subsidy on brandy imported from EU. This article was written by Arno V Venter at www.forexlive.com.

Prior was +4.8%Index 70.2 vs 74.3 prior (lowest ever) The index shows how far pending home sales have fallen. There was a big jump last month but it’s right back into the doldrums now and below the pandemic lows. According to NAR Chief Economist Lawrence Yun, “A sales recovery did not occur in midsummer. The

This is the final episode of a trio of auctions this week. The two-year sale stopped through strongly while there was a small tail for the 5s. Prior was 4.162%Bid to cover 2.50 vs 2.64 prior This is a 0.9 bps tail but so far the market is taking it largely in stride. This article

The US dollar jumped on stronger GDP and solid initial jobless claims but it’s slowly giving back those gains as equities strengthen. The S&P 500 is near a session high and up 0.9% while the Nasdaq is up 1.3%. USD/JPY was the biggest mover on the economic data, rising a full cent but it’s since

Probability of a September ECB cut has increased to 100% from 99.4% prior to the data, while the odds of an October cut has only moved to 64% from 61% prior to the data. I think that deceleration should have seen a bigger bet on an October cut as well, but money markets have had

There is risk that a somewhat stronger recovery could delay a return to inflation targetWhile our 2% target is in sight, we have not reached itA timely return to price stability cannot be taken for granted These have a hawkish tone to them but that’s no surprise coming from the Bundesbank. This article was written

Every day, it feels like we are sinking deeper into an Orwellian dystopia. Even progressive democracies are starting to impose more and more restrictions, especially on what can be said or written. Ten years ago, the news that someone would be jailed for a comment would have been bizarre. This is an unfortunate reality today,

It’s not AAA anymore but that’s a win. Key takeaways: US benefits from economic strength, reserve currency statusHigh deficits, debt, and political polarization remain concerns2024 election unlikely to significantly change fiscal outlookDeficits expected to remain high: 8.1% of GDP in 2024, 7.7% in 2025-26Government debt-to-GDP ratio projected to hit 124.4% by end-2026GDP growth forecast: 2.1%

The mandate of the SNB is to maintain price stability — a crucial precondition for society and a good functioning economyPrice stability is a crucial precondition for prosperity These are boilerplate comments. I’ll highlight anything new if it crosses. USD/CHF is up 45 pips to 0.8467 today. This article was written by Adam Button at

Iraq cancelled a spot cargo of 1 million barrels in August to reduce exports Iraq produced around 4.25 million barrels per day in July but there has been significant variance in the past year, though rarely as low as 3.85-3.9m bpd. This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

The non-fungible token boom-and-bust is likely to go down in history as one of the all-time manias to go along with tulip bulbs and the dot-com bubble. It’s probably the single-most stark example of the post-pandemic excess and the base for it all was OpenSea, which was the main NFT marketplace. Today, the SEC gave

The NZD is on another run higher this morning, testing close to the 0.63 psychological level. The NZD has caught many by surprise after the currency failed to push lower following the recent dovish tilt by the RBNZ. I think positioning can take some of that blame as the markets were already quite bearish on

Fundamental Overview This week has been pretty boring all around as the lack of catalysts kept the price action confined in a tight range. The market is waiting for the key economic releases next week as we will get the ISM PMIs and lots of US labour market data including the NFP report. As a

There has been a nice turnaround on the intraday gold chart. It fell about $15 follow a round of USD buying on good GDP data but has since recouped all of that and more. Bids emerged just before $2500 and it’s now in-line for a record close. The intraday record of $2531 is also within

Spanish HICP flash YY: 2.4vs 2.5% expected Spanish CPI YY flash: vs 2.4% expected Spanish HICP flash MM: vs 0.2% expected Spanish CPI MM flash: vs 0.1% expected This article was written by Arno V Venter at www.forexlive.com.

We’re making progress but we’re not there yet These are throwaway comments but it’s a good time to reminder readers that the latest PCE report is due tomorrow and at 2.6% y/y. This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

Initial claims 231K vs 232K expected and 232K prior (revised to 233K).Continuing claims 1868K vs 1870K expected and 1863K prior (revised to 1855K).The continuing claims data pertains to the NFP survey week. From the jobless claims perspective, the labour market is still doing pretty well. This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at www.forexlive.com.

August was a wild ride. It’s typically a quiet, summer month but it was anything but that this year as markets melted down early in the month only to post a full recovery in a remarkable turn. That’s left some nice-looking monthly charts and a series of breakouts. The US dollar has fallen substantially and

HFM, a global online trading company and brand name of HF Markets Group along with HF Markets, continues to support traders worldwide by expanding its educational offerings. Through in-person seminars in key cities and online webinar series, HFM aims to deliver the latest trading knowledge and market strategies to both emerging and established markets. “We

Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 and exit opening to -0.28% at 8048.50. Yesterday the index moved lower initially but then rebounded into the close closing little changed on the day. This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

Fundamental Overview This week has been pretty boring all around as the lack of catalysts kept the price action confined in a tight range. The market is waiting for the key economic releases next week as we will get the ISM PMIs and lots of US labour market data including the NFP report. As a

Equity futures have continued to grind higher throughout the session, with the NQ and ES both up around half a percent, despite the push lower last night after Nvidia earnings. The best performers so far has been the Hang Seng, EU50 and Nikkei who are all up over 1% on the session so far. News

Fundamental Overview This week has been pretty boring all around as the lack of catalysts kept the price action confined in a tight range. The market is waiting for the key economic releases next week as we will get the ISM PMIs and lots of US labour market data including the NFP report. As a

S&P 500 futures are up a modest 16 points, or 0.3%, to 5627. That’s an impressive performance given that shares of Nvidia are down 3% in the premarket following yesterday’s earnings report. Futures had traded as low as 5561 following NVDA earnings but the dip buyers have stepped in and that’s a good sign for

Yesterday in the Asia/Pacific session, the price of the AUDUSD moved higher after the Aussie CPI data came in a touch higher than expectations at 3.5% versus 3.4% (YoY). That took the price of the AUDUSD above the high price from July and earlier this week at 0.67978. However after reaching 0.6812 on the momentum

Prior month was 0.2% (revised to 0.1%).Wholesale inventories advanced for July 0.3% versus 0.2% estimate.Retail inventories ex auto 0.5% versus 0.2% prior month (revised to 0.3%). This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at www.forexlive.com.

The US dollar is higher across the board following a better-than-expected reading on GDP and in-line initial jobless claims numbers. The growth figures highlight an economy that’s just fine. In particular, the consumer spending number was +2.9% compared to the +2.0% reading expected. With these numbers, I find it hard to believe the Fed will

Overview of Market Movements and Sector Performances Today’s stock market presents a dynamic landscape with significant movements across various sectors. Focused analysis of the market heatmap provides an insightful view into sector performances, highlighting several key trends and movements that are pivotal for investors and traders. Technology and Consumer Cyclical Sectors: The technology sector shows

Discover time-tested strategies on how to trade price action in the 1 hour timeframe with confidence and consistency The post How To Trade Price Action (1 hour Timeframe) appeared first on TradingwithRayner.

EURUSD trades back below the 1.11 handle after a big deceleration in German statewide CPI data. Out of the 6 statewide releases, 5 of them printed new cycle lows, the only one that didn’t print with a new cycle low was Sachsen. This article was written by Arno V Venter at www.forexlive.com.

In the kickstart video for the start of trading for August 29, I take a technical look at the EURUSD, USDJPY and GBPUSD. What levels are in play? What are the risks, and the targets for each and I also explain and show why those levels are important. IN addition, I take a technical look

Swedish Final GDP YY: 0.5% vs 0.0% expected Swedish Final GDP QQ: -0.3% vs -0.8% expected Swedish Retail Sales MM: 0.5% vs -0.3% prior Swedish Retail Sales YY: -0.5% vs -0.1% prior This article was written by Arno V Venter at www.forexlive.com.

Closing changes on the day: Stoxx 600 +0.75%German DAX +0.6%Francis CAC +0.8%UK’s FTSE 100 +0.5%Spain’s IBEX +0.25%Italy’s FTSE MIB +0.8% That is an impressive turnaround for the DAX. This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

Price action is limited with the EURUSD low to high trading range only 15 pips, but the price has been able to extend above the 200-hour MA at 1.11267 (green line in the chart above). If the buyers can keep the price above that level, the buyers remain in contol with a run to the

Germany Sachsen state CPI YY: vs 3.1% expected Germany Bayern state CPI YY: 2.1% vs 2.5% expected Germany Brandenburg state CPI YY: vs 2.6% expected German Hessen state CPI YY: vs 1.8% expected German Baden-Wuerttemberg state CPI MYY: vs 2.1% expected German Nordrhine state CPI YY: vs 2.3% expected This article was written by Arno

The AUD and NZD continues to lead the majors on the upsideUS sees limited scope for nuclear talks with ChinaEquity futures putting in a solid run so far todayEurozone economic sentiment 96.6 vs 95.8 expectedChina’s Xi says committed to stable relationship with US based on win-win cooperationRate pricing for the ECB largely unchanged after the

Prior was -5.37 billionGoods deficit increased to C$2.2 billion from near balance in Q1Services deficit narrowed to C$3.2 billion from C$4.3 billionInvestment income balance swung to C$0.6 billion deficit from C$1.3 billion surplus Key Points: Imports rose 2.0% to C$196.1 billion, led by motor vehicles and partsExports edged up 0.9% to C$139.9 billion on higher

Prior was -96.56 billionExports flat at $172.9 billionImports rise $6.1 billion to $275.6 billionCapital goods exports jump 3.8% m/mConsumer goods imports edge up 0.9% m/m This number will be a pretty big drag at the start of Q3 for GDP. If there is a silver lining, the rise in imports does reflect some confidence on

Quick look below at today’s biggest FX option expiries via Newsquawk. This article was written by Arno V Venter at www.forexlive.com.

Advance Q2 reading was +2.8% annualizedFinal Q1 reading was +1.4% annualized Details: Consumer spending +2.9% vs +2.0% advance Consumer spending on durables+4.9%GDP final sales 2.2% vs +2.0% advanceGDP deflator +2.5% vs +2.3% advanceCore PCE +2.8% vs +2.9% advance Business investment +4.6% vs +5.2% advancePCE services inflation excluding energy and housing 2.3% vs 3.3% advanceCorporate profits

Eurozone economic sentiment: 96 vs 95.8 expected Eurozone industrial sentiment: vs -10.6 expected Eurozone services sentiment: vs 5.2 expected Eurozone consumer confidence final: vs -13.4 expected This article was written by Arno V Venter at www.forexlive.com.

The NZD and AUD continues to be the best performers so far today. For the NZD the upside was sparked by the solid jump in the ANZ Business Outlook which printed at the highest since 2014. For the AUD the strength looks more driven by overall risk sentiment with the upside in equities likely offering

Atlanta Fed Pres. Bostick is speaking and says: on inflation, there is still distance to go.Labor market still quite strong by historical standards.We cannot wait until inflation is too percent to move away from restrictive stance.Inflation has come down faster than expected, unemployment has risen farther than thoughts.This means we should pull forward rate cut

US sells 5-year notes at 3.645% vs 3.642% WIItaly plans to confirm it will bring deficit-to-GDP below 3% in 2026EIA weekly crude oil inventories -846K vs -2265K expectedEight things to look for in the Nvidia earnings reportSEC notifies NFT marketplace OpenSea that it’s likely to sue for securities law violations Markets: Gold down $17 to

According to Nikkei, Apple orders over 10% more iPhones versus last year. The phones this year will be AI equipped, but not ready until later in the year. Apple told suppliers to prepare for 88 – 90 million iPhones versus approximately 80 million. According to sources, the expectations is for four new iPhones, two, or

Exclusive-U.S. sees a ‘limited opportunity’ to restart nuclear policy dialogue with China -U.S. official.Exclusive-U.S. seeks arms talks with China focused on nuclear doctrine, strategic warning, risk reduction -U.S. official.Exclusive-Asked about missile deployment, U.S. official says any decision to deploy new capabilities to support Philippines will be informed by actions they see from China.Exclusive-U.S. officials have

Risk sentiment starts the session with a positive lean to it, despite Nvidia earnings and guidance not being enough to satisfy markets. FX: In FX the NZD is leading the pack to the upside following a solid jump in the ANZ Business Outlook and Own Activity data. The AUD is surprisingly strong despite a chunky

Riksbank’s Bunge: Inflation is in the process of stabilising at the target and the Swedish economy is in a mild recession.Riksbank’s Bunge: I foresee two or three further cuts this year.Riksbank’s Bunge: However, monetary policy should still be characterised by a gradual adjustment.Riksbank’s Bunge: This creates predictability and gives us the opportunity to manage a

The PBOC set the USDCNY midpoint at 7.1299 vs expectations of 7.1297. The prior was 7.1216 This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

China’s Xi meets with U.S. National Security Adviser Sullivan in Beijing.China’s Xi, in meeting with U.S. National Security Adviser Sullivan: In this changing and turbulent world countries need solidarity and coordination, not exclusion or regress.China’s Xi, in meeting with U.S. National Security Adviser Sullivan: China is committed to a stable relationship based on win-win cooperation.China’s

The economic calendar in the Asian Pacific session is light once again. Fedspeak will have Fed’s Bostic speaking at 6 PM. On Friday, in interviews with Bloomberg TV and CNBC, Bostic stated that he estimates the long-run Federal Reserve rate at 3%. He emphasized that the Fed’s next steps will be data-dependent, noting that inflation

Fundamental Overview This week has been pretty boring all around as the lack of catalysts kept the price action confined in a tight range. The market is waiting for the key economic releases next week as we will get the ISM PMIs and lots of US labour market data including the NFP report. As a

Japan consumer confidence index: 36.7 vs 36.7 prior This article was written by Arno V Venter at www.forexlive.com.

Shares in Remy Cointreau and Pernod Ricard both up about 8%, after China’s Commerce Ministry says will not impose provisional anti-dumping subsidy on brandy imported from EU. This article was written by Arno V Venter at www.forexlive.com.

Apple orders over 10% more iPhones versus last yearPBOC sets USDCNY midpoint at 7.1299 versus expectations of 7.1297Australia capital expenditures for Q2 -2.2% versus 1.0% expectedANZ business outlook for August 50.6 versus 27.1 last month. 10 year high.Can gold sellers gather some traction?Nvidia remains lower by around 7% (as do the other Mag 7)Fed’s Bostick:

Although we have a more lively day in terms of data releases, most of them are low-tier indicators that are rarely market moving. In the European session, we will get the Spanish and the German CPI figures. Both of them are unlikely to be market moving because they won’t change anything for the ECB or

Ukrainian military says it attacked ‘Atlas’ oil storage facility in Russia’s Rostov region on Aug.28, causing a fire.Ukrainian military says it struck ‘Zenit’ oil depot in Russia’s Kirov region.Ukrainian military says it struck field artillery depot in Russia’s Voronezh region This article was written by Arno V Venter at www.forexlive.com.

Q2 EPS: $0.68 versus $0.64 estimate. Last year $0.27 last year. Revenue: $30.04 billion vs $28.5 billion estimate. Last year $13.51 billionData center: $26.3 billion versus $25.08 billion estimateAdjusted gross margins and 75.7% versus 75.5% expectedR&D expenses $3.09 billion versus $3.08 billion expectedAdjusted operating expenses $2.79 billion versus expected $2.81 billionAdjusted operating income $19.94 billion

This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

Prior month 27.1Own activity 37.1 versus 16.3 last month. 7-year highExperienced own activity rose 1 point to -21, remaining weak.Confidence and activity expectations were high even before the Reserve Bank’s OCR cut.Pricing intentions increased 3 points to 41% of firms planning price hikes in the next three months.Planned price increase rose from 1.4% to 1.6%.Inflation

Prior quarter 1.0%Australia’s capital expenditures for Q2 -2.2% versus 1.0% estimate. That equaled the largest decline since a similar fall in Q3 2021.Building capital expenditures -3.8 versus -0.9% last quarter. The decline was was the worst since Q2 2020.Plant/machinery capital expenditures -0.5% versus +3.3% last quarter The ANZ business Outlook data was strong for NZ.

The price of gold has been stepping higher. Adam outlined the ‘Very simple case for buying gold” in his post HERE. And that makes a ton of sense. However, there are times when the momentum fades and there is a corrective move, or “the case” changes and the market reverses. The technicals help to tell

The NZDUSD has moved higher after the surprising ANZ business outlook index which moved to the highest level in over 10 years. The Own Activity index moved to the highest level in 7 years. Looking at the daily chart, the swing high from January 4 reached 0.62853. The high price today just reached 0.62849, and

Today’s economic calendar is the busiest one of the week. EU Session: During the European session we’ll get the latest round of flash HICP data for Spain and Germany. With markets fairly optimistically priced about the ECB rate path (at least relative to that of the Fed), a big miss in the data might could

The earnings call with Nvidia’s Jensen Huang is coming to an end and has not provided any rebound in Nvidia shares in after-hours trading. At the end of the call, shares of Nvidia are trading down $-7.85 or -6.30% at $117.79. The closing level was at $125.61. The high close for the week was $130

It’s a rare moment in global financial markets when everything hangs on a single earnings report. It’s been similar for the past few quarters for Nvidia but this one lands at a particularly quiet moment for broader markets and has taken on extra significance. Here are some of the numbers to look for today but

The major US indices are ending the day lower. For the industrial average, it’ snapped a 2- day record closing. The NASDAQ index fell -1.12% ahead of Nvidia’s earnings to be released at 4:20 PM ET. Nvidia shares closed down $-2.69 or -2.10%. The final numbers for the major indices are showing: Dow industrial average

Jensen Huang from Nvidia completed an interview on Bloomberg, but the price still remains lower. Shares are trading at $117.20 down $-8.41 or -6.70%. Looking at other Magnificent 7 stocks, they are also lower in after-hours trading: meta-$-4.78 or -0.92%Apple $-0.55 or -0.24% Amazon $-1.51 or -0.88%alphabet $-1.15 or -0.71%.Microsoft $-2.47 or -0.60%Tesla $-2.47 or

With Nvidia lower in after-hours trading and the e-mini S&P lower, the USDJPY is also dipping to the downside, and the process, is moving away from 100-hour moving average (blue line on the chart below) at 144.66 along with a 50% midpoint of the move up from the 2023 low which comes in at 144.58.

It’s been a sensational run for the pound over the past three weeks, culminating in a two-year high yesterday. Profit taking is the theme today with GBP/USD down 80 pips to 1.3174. Kier Starmer yesterday highlighted ‘painful’ choices that need to be made in the October 30 budget and that could have put a chill

The Nasdaq is lagging, down about 1.6% as we wait for Nvidia earnings. Chipmakers are near the bottom of the charts as they will trade in-line with NVDA tomorrow but Starbucks, Netflix and Tesla are also notable laggards. One that’s worth highlighting in Costco, which hit an all-time high yesterday but is down nearly 3%

US MBA mortgage applications: 0.5% vs -10.1% prior US MBA mortgage market index: 226.9 vs 225.8 prior US MBA purchase index: 131.8 vs 130.6 prior US MBA refinancing index: 753.8 vs 754.4 prior US MBA 30-year mortgage rate: 6.44% vs 6.50% prior This article was written by Arno V Venter at www.forexlive.com.

US markets are set to open slightly lower today with futures seeing the S&P 500 down 0.1%, the Nasdaq-100 down 0.2% and the Russell 2000 down -0.4%. Here are the biggest movers pre-market from Newsquawk: $SMCI -10%: To delay 10-K filing for FY24$NVDA -0.2%: Earnings await after-hours$PVH -9.5%: EPS disappointed & backed FY24 rev. decline

Prior was 4.121%Bid to cover 2.41 vs 2.40 prior The results are a tad worse than expected in the when-issued market but not meaningfully so. There was something of a concession in the past few hours but I still think you get a sign of relief here, though I’ll be watching closely. This article was

In geopolitical news from Israel, the Israeli army is said to have launched a large-scale operation against militants in various parts of the northern West Bank. This is according to Al Jazeera.More; Hundreds of Israeli soldiers take part in the operation in the northern West Bank with full air coverThe Army began a large-scale operation

MUFG highlights that the Bank of Japan (BoJ) continues to signal potential rate hikes despite recent yen strength, with rising front-end yields expected to limit yen selling appetite. Key Points: BoJ’s Stance: The BoJ has not shifted its monetary policy outlook despite recent market volatility and a significant drop in USD/JPY. Deputy Governor Himino reiterated

Libya’s Sarir oil field reduces production to near total shutdown – engineers to Reuters. More updates out of Libya regarding their oil situation. Oil price is largely unchanged after the news as a lot of the good news was priced in on Monday. This article was written by Arno V Venter at www.forexlive.com.

The USDCHF extended lower yesterday – just not in the Asian Pacific session. However, what did not happen yesterday was as the price moved sideways in the early hours of the trading day, and the falling 100 hour MA started to catch up, the price could not make a push to that MA, and ultimately,

The week is just getting started, but it’s already packed with major events, like the recent escalation in the Middle East after Israel attacked southern Lebanon, keeping markets on edge. While geopolitical events often shake up commodity markets, affecting oil and gold prices, macroeconomic trends have a wider influence, impacting everything from stocks and bonds

There is more than one Fed put. Early this month, I wrote about the one that saved equity markets. It’s also one that backs the real economy and is the one that 99% of financial commentary is written about, particularly lately. What worries me is the other one: It’s the call on the Fed or

Alright, alright, alright… enough about Nvidia already. Shares of the company are down 4% and the Nasdaq is down 1.4% in a move that’s gone in lockstep. The options market is pricing a +/- move of 9% in NVDA shares when earnings are reported after the bell and that will easily move the Nasdaq 2%

Newsquawk shared a nice preview on Nvidia reporting Q2 earnings today after the US market close. The release will likely be around 20:20 GMT/16:20 ET. Expectations Q2 EPS: 0.64Q2 Revenue: 28.48 blnQ3 EPS: 0.70Q3 Revenue: 31.41 bln Market Reaction Options market implies a 1.3% swing in the S&P 500 for the first day of trading

Bitcoin made some headway last week as it broke out of a consolidation patter and looked well on its way to recouping the July-August losses. But the mood changed early this week and it’s been steady selling, culminating in a 5% loss today. The drop in bitcoin is something of a red flag for tech

Nick Timiraos: You know that -818K revision to NFP? Goldman says it should’ve been -300KAustralia’s treasurer Chalmers: Inflation data a promising resultBOJ Deputy Gov. Himino: The financial and capital markets remain unstable.Australia construction work done for Q2 0.1% versus 0.7% expectedAustralia weighted CPI YoY 3.5% versus 3.4% expectedPBOC sets USDCNY midpoint at 7.1216 vs exp

Last week, the USDCAD fell sharply and although through 2 days this week and a few hours, the momentum lower may have slowed a bit, the trend lower remains intact. Trends are fast, directional and tend to go farther than traders expect or think. As a result, if buying a dip, it is important to

According to Reuters sources, Italy will confirm its commitment to get its deficit to GDP ratio below 3% in 2026 in the upcoming medium-term structural budget plan. This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

Today we get the second in a trilogy of Treasury auctions this week. It’s a $70 billion sales of five-year year notes due at the top of the hour. Yesterday the market was anxious about a two-year sale but it went surprisingly well and there was a big follow-through of bids afterwards. That led to

Japan’s Trade Ministry is set to ask for 2.3596 trillion yen in its preliminary budget request for FY2025/26, according to Jiji. This article was written by Arno V Venter at www.forexlive.com.

Gold briefly touched the recent highs around the 2530 level in the Asian session but eventually erased all the gains made this week and extended the drop below the 2500 level. This is mostly noise as there has been no catalyst for such a move. We can see in the 1 hour chart below that

Insights into Today’s Stock Market: A Palette of Mixed Performances Today’s stock market offers a vibrant mix of advances and retreats across various sectors, presenting a complex landscape for traders and investors alike. This analysis draws heavily on the latest stock market heatmap to guide you through the sectors and stocks that are shaping the

Here is a handy chart from Apollo showing what’s priced in for US and Eurozone overnight rates. The dotted lines show the market-derived forecasts while the solid lines shows some valuable historical context. We know rates in the US are going to be cut in September and will continue to be lowered from there. The

Prior was -4649K Details: Gasoline -2203K vs -2265K expectedDistillates +275K vs -1083K expectedRefinery utilization +1.0% vs +0.2% expectedProduction mbpd 13.3mbpd vs 13.4mbpd prior API data released late yesterday: Crude -3400KGasoline -1860KDistillates -1400K Ahead of the release, WTI crude oil was trading lower by 77-cents to $74.78. This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

SMCI falls more than 9% pre-market on the news that the company is to delay the 10-K form for FY2024. Adam posted yesterday on the short-selling research firm Hindenburg alleging “accounting manipulation, sibling self-dealing and sanctions evasion”. This delay just strengthens the Hindenburg’s case in the market’s view… This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta

The bank notes three negative drivers for the USD: Lower Yields Environment: A persistent low-yield environment in the US, with the Fed’s dovish tone at the Jackson Hole speech reinforcing expectations for rate cuts is a negative environment for the USD as the Dollar’s value typically declines with lower US yields.Relative Disinflation: A new factor

Australia/s treasurer Chalmers is speaking after the CPI data and says: Inflation data a promising resultHowever we are not complacent because we know that people are still under pressure The AUDUSD moved higher after the reading came in higher than the expectations of 3.4% (was 3.5%), but the high price of 0.68124 could not extend

US markets have been bounced around today by worries about Nvidia but thankfully Europe doesn’t have any AI to worry about. French stocks steadied today as Macron makes a wild play at holding onto power while Germany leads the way. Stoxx 600 +0.3%German DAX +0.6%Francis CAC +0.2%UK’s FTSE 100 +0.3%Spain’s IBEX +0.1%Italy’s FTSE MIB +0.3%

China’s Foreign Minister Wang Yi, in a meeting with U.S. National Security Adviser Sullivan, emphasized the importance of treating each other as equals for the smooth development of China-US interactions – Chinese state media.Wang Yi advised the U.S. not to judge China based on the path it has traveled nor to view China through the

Fundamental Overview Since last Friday, the USD has been mostly weak as Fed Chair Powell delivered a more dovish than expected speech at the Jackson Hole Symposium where he basically kept the door open for a 50 bps cut at the September meeting. In fact, the line saying that they will do everything they can

Swedish trade balance: 6.5 vs 8.7B prior Swedish exports: 156.0 vs 170.6B prior Swedish imports: 149.5 vs 161.9B prior This article was written by Arno V Venter at www.forexlive.com.

Fundamental Overview Since last Friday, the USD has been mostly weak as Fed Chair Powell delivered a more dovish than expected speech at the Jackson Hole Symposium where he basically kept the door open for a 50 bps cut at the September meeting. In fact, the line saying that they will do everything they can

Quick look below at today’s biggest FX option expiries via Newsquawk. This article was written by Arno V Venter at www.forexlive.com.

As we progress through 2024, the commodities market is emerging as a key area of interest for investors seeking to diversify their portfolios and hedge against inflation. With insights from Kar Yong Ang, a financial analyst at Octa broker, we explore the most promising commodities of the year, including gold, oil, lithium, and others, and

Fundamental Overview Since last Friday, the USD has been mostly weak as Fed Chair Powell delivered a more dovish than expected speech at the Jackson Hole Symposium where he basically kept the door open for a 50 bps cut at the September meeting. In fact, the line saying that they will do everything they can

Japan’s Trade Ministry eyes 2.3596 trillion yen for FY2025/26 budgetUS MBA mortgage applications w.e. 23 August 0.5% vs -10.1% priorWang Yi urges US to treat China as equal and halt suppression in trade and techJP Morgan joins other banks looking for more USD downsideWTI gives up all the Libya gains and trades below $75Knowing election

Israeli, US, Egyptian, and Qatari negotiators were meeting in Doha on Wednesday for “technical/working level” Gaza ceasefire talks – source with knowledge of the meeting to Reuters. This article was written by Arno V Venter at www.forexlive.com.

Sentiment trades fairly mixed across major asset classes as we head towards the cash open. That isn’t really surprising in a week like this where everyone is hesitant to put on risk while they wait for next week’s jobs data to get more clarity on the pace of Fed cuts. FX: In FX the AUD

Gold came under some selling pressure earlier today but has rebounded and is trading $7 higher to $2524 in what would be the highest daily close ever. Since hitting an intraday record high of $2531 last week, the noise around the gold market has been remarkably quiet, which is a good thing in a bull

Catalysts have been very thin on the commodity side this morning, but WTI has given up all of it’s Libya inspired gains from Monday. We’re currently trading back below the $75 and getting close to the 1-standard deviation implied volatility low for the day. When something can’t rally on good news or sustain a rally

Fundamental Overview Since last Friday, the USD has been mostly weak as Fed Chair Powell delivered a more dovish than expected speech at the Jackson Hole Symposium where he basically kept the door open for a 50 bps cut at the September meeting. In fact, the line saying that they will do everything they can

The final countdown to iFX EXPO Asia 2024 is officially in full swing as one of the world’s leading B2B online trading and fintech events is just around the corner, ahead of its return to Thailand. Excitement is already building as the expo, now in its third year in Bangkok, prepares to welcome more than

Swiss investor sentiment: -3.vs 9.4 prior This article was written by Arno V Venter at www.forexlive.com.

Japan’s Nikkei futures are trading down -0.4% yearly trading. US stocks did move higher but only marginally. Yesterday the Nikkei 225 rose 0.47%. Looking at the daily chart, the price of the Nikkei 225 remains between its 100-day moving average at 38622.25, and its lower 200-day moving average at 37266.66. The low price reached in

The bank notes that knowing the outcome of US elections in advance doesn’t necessarily provide an investing edge. Pre-Election Market Behavior: Historical data shows that the S&P 500 index and other markets do not follow a consistent pattern in the six months leading into an election, regardless of whether the government is divided or unified.Markets

Eurozone Money M3 annual growth: 2.3% vs 2.7% expected Eurozone loans to households: % vs 0.3% prior Eurozone loans to non-finance institutions: % vs 0.7% prior This article was written by Arno V Venter at www.forexlive.com.

It’s going to be another quiet day on the economic calendar side today. EU Session: There is very little to spark excitement during the EU session with French consumer confidence the main ‘highlight’ (if we can even call it that). US Session: On the US side, markets might be paying more attention to tonight’s 5-year

Less than a week after the BLS revised the 2023 job gains by -818K, Goldman is now arguing that the number was probably closer to -300K instead. The reason? Goldman says businesses avoided reporting unauthorized immigrants to the unemployment insurance system, which pushed and reported employment in last week’s benchmark revisions. It is all water

Prior month 3.8% Weighted CPI year on year 3.5% vs 3.4% estimateCPI SA YoY x.x% vs 3.9% prior This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

French consumer confidence: 92 vs 92 expected This article was written by Arno V Venter at www.forexlive.com.

Following the record growth it saw in 2023 with the full redesign of its enterprise-grade platform for brokers, fintech industry leader iTech Software introduces a new and even more powerful iteration of its infrastructure. The upgraded platform features a multitude of tools and capabilities that further empower brokers to deliver the best experience for their

It’s going to be a very boring day on the data front as the calendar is absolutely empty today. Unfortunately, this week is like a placeholder for the next one which is going to have lots of top-tier indicators like the ISM PMIs and will conclude with a bang on Friday with the NFP report.

Citi Research: Zinc could touch $3,100/t by 4Q or early 2025 as manufacturing sentiment recovers amid supply-side constraints.Citi Research: “We see renewed upside for aluminium by 4Q or early 2025.” This article was written by Arno V Venter at www.forexlive.com.

US 2-year note auction results 3.874% vs 3.880% WIUS August consumer confidence 103.3 vs. 100.7 expectedDallas Fed services sector outlook index -7.7 vs -0.1 priorRichmond Fed August manufacturing index -19 versus -14 expectedUS June Case-Shiller home price index +0.4% m/m vs +0.3% expectedFed discount rate minutes: Chicago and New York directors favored cutsWhite House: Iran

Prior month -2.9%Construction work done for Q2 0.1% versus 0.7% expected This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

The PBOC sets the USDCNY central rate at 7.1216 not far from the estimate of 7.1219. That is down from previous setting at 7.1249. The PBOC injects CNY 277.3B the seven day reverse repo at maintained rate of 1.70% This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

BOJ Deputy Gov Himino: BOJ’s monetary policy has to take into account numerous factors.BOJ Deputy Gov Himino: Our task is to closely monitor market developments for the time being.BOJ Deputy Gov Himino: Not having in mind specific levels, range for neutral interest rates.BOJ Deputy Gov Himino: Financial conditions are accommodative right now.BOJ Deputy Gov Himino:

The price of bitcoin is trading to a new low and in the process has moved below the $61,000 level. It is also moving further away from the near converged 100 and 200-day moving averages (blue and green lines on the chart above) which come in at $63,478 and $63,712. The current price is trading

The Aussie is leading the majors on the upside this morning following the latest release of monthly CPI data. Even though the headline printed slightly higher at 3.5 than market’s expectations of 3.4, the bigger story wasn’t on the headline side but on the core measures. Trimmed CPI YY decelerated to 3.8 from the prior

The economic calendar is light in the new trading day. The weekly private API data will start the session when it is released at 5:30 PM ET. Later at 9:30 PM ET, the Australia month CPI for July will be released. The monthly CPI data from Australia does not show all components of the CPI,

In yesterday’s video, looking at the EURUSD, USDJPY and GBPUSD, I stressed: “On Monday, the EURUSD moved lower and in doing so, is moving closer to its rising 100-hour moving average currently at 1.1143 (the price is at 1.11615). That moving average will be a key barometer for the pair in the new trading day.

Yesterday we highlighted some of the important data to keep on the radar for the US Consumer Confidence print. Even though the headline confidence number printed a solid beat of 103.3 (above the market’s max estimates), the USD still pushed lower. Part of the reason what the data under the hood which continued to show

The reports from Israel: The army mobilized thousands of soldiers from special units in preparation for the large scale operation in the northern West Bank.Operation in Tukarm and Jenin, is expected to last a long time. Up to weeksThe Army conducts the largest operation in the West Bank since 2002The operation in the West Bank

Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 ind trading down -0.12% at 8061.50 in early trading. The index has been building since it’s a tumble back on August 5 of -3.7% (same day the Nikkei fell -12.4%). Since that time 13 days have been higher with only 2 days lower. The high close level comes in at 8114.7. The

BOJ deputy governor Himono is speaking and says” The financial and capital markets remain unstableTHe BOJ needs to monitor these developments with utmost vigilanceBOJ also intends to carefully examine the impact these market developments at home and abroad have on the outlet for economic activity and prices, the risks surrounding the outlook, and the degree

The AUDUSD is trading in a narrow 40 picked trading range for the first two days of the week. THat is not a lot. However just ahead is Australia’s CPI data for the month of July. With the range narrow and contained, traders should look for a break momentum in the direction of the break.

White House spokesman Kirby said the US believes Iran is postured and poised to deliver an attack on Israel. A couple weeks ago, there were reports of an ‘imminent’ attack on Israel that didn’t come to pass so I don’t believe the market is going to take this headline too seriously. If/when the attack does

The numbers via oilprice.com on Twitter: The EIA estimates to be released tomorrow at 10:30 AM show: Crude oil drawdown of -2.265 million barrelsGasoline inventories drawdown of -1.587 million Distillates drawdown of -1.083 million — This data point is from a privately-conducted survey by the American Petroleum Institute (API). It’s a survey of oil storage

The Dow industrial average closed higher and at a record level for the second consecutive day. The record was only by the smallest of margins (well almost the smallest). The Dow industrial average only rose 0.02% on the day. The broader S&P and NASDAQ indices also closed marginally higher with matching 0.16% gains. Tomorrow Nvidia

At times the discount minutes can offer a preview of something like a coming dissent at the FOMC meeting but it’s very well telegraphed that a cut is coming. I suppose someone could dissent for 50 bps though. Current pricing is 64% for 25 bps and 36% for 50 bps but that will make a

Swedish Household Lending Growth YY for July: 0.7 vs 0.7% prior Swedish PPI YY for July: -0.1 vs 0.8% prior Swedish PPI MM for July: -1.4 vs -0.4% prior This article was written by Arno V Venter at www.forexlive.com.

The UK returned from holiday today: Stoxx 600 +0.2%German DAX +0.4%Francis CAC -0.2%UK’s FTSE 100 +0.3%Spain’s IBEX +0.5%Italy’s FTSE MIB +0.3% The DAX has been impressive since the early-August rout. This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

Japan’s finance minister Suzuki is speaking and says: FX rate determined by various factors Not just monetary policies and interest-rate differentialsAlso by geopolitical risks, market sentiment and others.Hard to tell how those factors would impact FX ratesWill monitor how changes in US monetary policies would affect through various channel US Federal Reserve Chairman Powell signaled

The Japan’s Nikkei 225 is opening down -0.10%. Looking at the daily chart, the price remains between its 100 day moving average above at 38619.42, and its 200 day moving average below at 37265.24. This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

Equity futures are trading in the green across the board (apart from the ASX200 down around -0.20%) Today looks like bit of a role-reversal day with the Nikkei (weakest in yesterday’s session) trading as the second strongest today, while the ASX200 which saw decent performance yesterday is today’s underperformer. Catalysts have been very thin so

Today’s two-year US Treasury sale was a bit of a gut-check moment for the fixed income market. It was the first test of real-demand at sub-4% yields in this environment. The $69 billion was a big amount to swallow and European fixed income was soft today. But the demand was there, proven by a 0.6

In this video, I take a look at the three of the major currency pairs from a technical perspective. the: EURUSDUSDJPY, andGBPUSD On Monday, the EURUSD moved lower and in doing so, is moving closer to its rising 100-hour moving average currently at 1.1143 (the price is currently at 1.11615). That moving average will be

Oil rallied 3.5% yesterday after Libya halted production and exports on the civil unrest in the country. The old adage applied again: Never trust a geopolitical rally. There are times when they can work for a period — like the Russian invasion of Ukraine — but unless barrels are truly taken out of the market

Prior was 4.434%On the run 2s were trading at 3.9245% shortly before the auctionBid to cover 2.68 vs 2.81 prior That’s a strong auction and note that there has only been one tail at a regular 2-year auction in the past year. Even with much less yield than last month, the bidders were there. That

The S&P 500 has rebounded into positive territory, up 0.2% after opening lower. Tech is leading the way with the Nasdaq Composite up 0.3% while the Russell 2000 remains down 0.5%. Top performers include Expedia, Costco and Netflix. Laggards include American Airlines, Amazon and Walgreens. Nvidia initially opened lower but has helped to turn the

The economic calendar in the Asia-Pacific session is once again light. Japan service PPI for July will be released at 7:50 PM ET. Last month he PPI came in at 3.0%. China’s industrial profit year to date for July will be released at 9:30 PM ET with expectations of 3.5% Other data is to be

The front end is for sale today and this will be the first auction in awhile where the US Treasury can borrow at that tenor for less than 4%. Last month, 2s sold for 4.43% and today, we’re likely to track below 3.95%. The last sales below 4% were in March/April 2023 on worries about

Consumer confidence 103.3 vs. 100.7 expectedPresent situation 134.4 vs. 133.1 prior.Expectations 82.5 vs. 81.1 prior.16.4% of consumers said jobs were “hard to get,” from 16.0%12 month inflation expectations 4.9% vs 5.4% prior — lowest since March 2020Confidence declined among consumers under 35 while it increased for those 35 and older “Overall consumer confidence rose in

The CEO of Microsoft Satya Nadella, sold 14,398 shares of Microsoft at an average price of $417.41. That netted the CEO a cool $6M ($6,009,869.18 to be exact). Whoop-di-do. Nadella owns 801,331 shares as of May 2024 (and probably options for many more). His holdings of shares totals $331,342,355. Maybe he needed a new boat

Fed’s Daly: Labour market is in complete balanceFed’s Barkin: I’m hearing that consumers are still spending but they’re choosingUS July durable goods orders +9.9% vs +5.7% expectedUS Dallas Fed manufacturing index -9.7 vs -17.5 priorCanada to impose 100% tariff on China EVs; will also tax Chinese steel and aluminumCanada to slash the number of temp

We have another empty European session ahead in terms of data releases. In the American session, we will get several low-tier US data but th focus will be on the labour market data in the US Consumer Confidence report. 14:00 GMT/10:00 ET – US August Consumer Confidence The US Consumer Confidence is expected at 100.7

Fundamental Overview Last Friday, Fed Chair Powell delivered a more dovish than expected speech at the Jackson Hole Symposium as he basically kept the door open for a 50 bps cut at the September meeting. In fact, the line saying that they will do everything they can to support a strong labour market was key.

The bank expects the AUD to appreciate in the coming weeks due to favourable rate differentials and USD depreciation. However, significant gains are likely to be constrained by the weak economic outlook for China as well as existing bullish positioning in the AUD. Bullish drivers: Narrowing rate differentials between AUD and the USD are expected

Today, European sovereign yields are breaking out of a consolidation pattern in a sign of waning demand for safety. The charts speak for themselves as it’s a consistent move from west to east. UK 10s: French 10s: Italian 10s are up 8 bps today in the largest jump since June: Bunds have broken out of

As long as disinflation path converges to 2% before end of 2025, then I’m comfortable with gradual policy easing. This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at www.forexlive.com.

Reuters is estimating that PBOC will set the USDCNY midpoint at 7.1245 vs 7.1132 previously. The People’s Bank of China (PBOC), China’s central bank, is responsible for setting the daily midpoint of the yuan (also known as renminbi or RMB). The PBOC follows a managed floating exchange rate system that allows the value of the

US consumer confidence was better than expected at 103.3 compared to 100.7 expected. That was released at the same time as a softer Richmond Fed services index at -11 compared to +5 previously. That led to little reaction in the FX as the dollar stayed softer on the day or slightly sagged. That was mirrored

GB CBI Distributive Trades -27 vs -43 prior This article was written by Arno V Venter at www.forexlive.com.

Apple is announcing a change in its senior management as Luca Maestri its current CFO will step down as of January 1 and be replaced by Kevan Perakh. Apple shares are trading around -0.7 in after-hours trading, after closing higher by 0.15% today. This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

The AUDUSD has been mired in a very narrow trading range to start the new trading day. Yesterday’s trading range was not spectacular as well and comes after testing the July high on Friday and finding willing sellers. That sets the level near 0.67978 (call it 0.6800) a topside resistance target. On the downside, the

Prior month -17Services index -11 vs +5 last monthManufacturing shipments -15 vs -21 last month Other details: Employment -15 versus -5 last monthWages 14 versus +15 last month Prices paid 2.45 versus 3.00 last monthPrices received 1.87 versus 1.31 last monthNew orders -26 versus -23 last monthBacklog of orders -27 versus -20 last monthCapacity utilization

Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov on Ukraine’s demands that the West let it strike deep into Russia: “This is blackmail.”Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov: Russia has its own nuclear weapons doctrine, which is being adjusted.Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov: Playing with fire is very dangerous for those who are entrusted with nuclear weapons in the West. This article

Market Overview Today’s stock market presents a varied landscape, with the tech sector showing modest movements, in contrast to the broader market’s mixed signals. Notable among the technology giants, NVIDIA (NVDA) sees a slight decline of -0.85%, possibly tied to industry-specific challenges or broader market cautiousness. Sector Analysis Technology: Mixed results dominate with NVIDIA and

Prior was -0.1Revenue index +8.7 vs +7.7 prior This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

German Consumer Sentiment for September:-22 vs -18.2 expected This article was written by Arno V Venter at www.forexlive.com.

The S&P 500 opened higher but quickly reversed and has been languishing for most of the day. Small caps were strong early but gave most of it away in a grind and tech lagged as fears build around Wednesday’s earnings report from Nvidia. Closing changes: S&P 500 -0.4%Nasdaq Comp -1.0%DJIA +0.1% (record high)Russell 2000 +0.2%Toronto

It’s another relatively quiet day on the economic calendar for today. EU session: During the EU session the main highlight will be German GDP and consumer confidence data expected at 07:00 BST. It’s unlikely that these will move the needle as they are usually brushed aside. Also, given the steady amount of downside surprises in

Prior month 3.0% revised to 3.1%Japan services PMI July 2.8% versus 2.9% expected This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

Shares of AI high-flyer Super Micro Computer are down 10% in the pre-market after a short report from Hindenburg Research alleged “accounting manipulation, sibling self-dealing and sanctions evasion.” The company has a $35 billion market cap and soared from $250 at the start of the year to as high as $1229 as it becamse something

The JPY is being raked over the coals this morning and losing ground against all its peers. Catalysts for the move has been light. However, following recent policy actions, we have seen the more traditional inverse correlation between the JPY and yields come back into focus. The small upside in major benchmark yields (below in

China’s January – July industrial profits +3.6% year on yearChina’s July industrial profits +4.1%. This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

Prior was +0.3%Prices 6.5% y/y vs +6.0% expectedPrior was 6.8% y/y FHFA data: -0.1% m/m vs +0.0% priorPrices +5.1% y/y vs +5.7% prior These two data sets are telling a somewhat-different story as the 20-city numbers stay strong while the national numbers from the FHFA slacken. In the latest round of earnings from home builders,

Fundamental Overview Last Friday, Fed Chair Powell delivered a more dovish than expected speech at the Jackson Hole Symposium as he basically kept the door open for a 50 bps cut at the September meeting. In fact, the line saying that they will do everything they can to support a strong labour market was key.

With all the focus on the labour market right now, there are a few data points within today’s Consumer Confidence report that could get some attention and worth being aware of. 1. Jobs hard to find (overlaying this with the unemployment rate should explain why it’s useful and why it would matter going into next

Two oilfields in southeast Libya shut down, another oilfield reduced production to lowest capacity – engineers. This comes on the back of yesterday’s announcement of the force majeure. Oil has been trading mostly rangebound in today’s session after yesterday’s solid run higher. This article was written by Arno V Venter at www.forexlive.com.

UBS Global Wealth Management raises odds of a U.S. recession to 25% from 20% previously. – Recession watchers will be having a ball with this one. This article was written by Arno V Venter at www.forexlive.com.

Things to look out for in today’s Consumer Confidence dataLavrov condemns Ukraine’s demands and warns West against ‘playing with fire’UK CBI Distributive Trades -27 vs -43 priorMarkets still leaning mostly risk on as we head deeper into the sessionUK PM Starmer warns of ‘painful’ October budget,Two Libyan oilfields shut and another at lowest outputBofA is

Fundamental Overview Last Friday, Fed Chair Powell delivered a more dovish than expected speech at the Jackson Hole Symposium as he basically kept the door open for a 50 bps cut at the September meeting. In fact, the line saying that they will do everything they can to support a strong labour market was key.

UK PM Starmer: The budget coming in October will be painful.UK PM Starmer: Those with the broadest shoulders should pay the heaviest burden.UK PM Starmer: I will have to make big asks of the public, to accept short term pain for long term good. Pound has seen some very marginal weakness on the news, but