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RBNZ Governor Orr Current economic environment is weakEconomy weaker than anticipated six months ago We have strong control over the inflation storyNo talk on committee of raising rates againWe are not done yet on inflation but definitely moving in right directionIf inflation expectations well anchored we can look through some noise Kiwi $ is barely […]

The labour market is weakening “but not weak”As price pressures ease, officials need to be conscious of their mandate of maintaining full employment The narrative now is that the Fed is slowly conforming to market expectations for a rate cut next month. I reckon Powell should reaffirm that at Jackson Hole next week. However, they’re

Prior +0.7%GDP +0.9% vs +0.9% y/y expectedPrior +0.3% Looking at the breakdown, household consumption contributed +0.12%, government consumption +0.30%, and gross capital formation +2.38% on the quarter. That is partially offset by a fall in net trade (-2.20%). Overall, it still points to a solid showing in Q2 for the UK economy. And that has

For once, USD/JPY is settling within a 50 pips range so far on the day. Overall, the reaction to the US CPI report yesterday has been rather underwhelming. The dollar did nudge a little lower while stocks climbed but not by a whole lot. Then again, traders are pricing between a 25 bps and 50

The beat for retail sales is going to be read as slightly better news on household consumption/demand. The other two headline data points are both misses though. Industrial output has dribbled lower compared to the previous month for the third consecutive month. A spokesperson for China’s National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) says China’s economy was

The US CPI report from Wednesday, ICYMI: Forexlive Americas FX news wrap: CPI continues to cool Earlier: JP Morgan says the Fed has a green light for a 50bp rate cut in Sep. Here’s the trigger.Morgan Stanley flag potential 50bp Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) Septembr rate cut UBS weigh in: The inflation data has

Hopes are up, again, for stimulus from China after the most recent data, which continues the theme of e=unevenn recovery: China July data: Retail sales +2.7% y/y (expected +2.6). Industrial production +5.1% y/y National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) with remarks: Economic recovery trend needs to be consolidatedExpects recovery in consumption to consolidate as policies gain

The US CPI data is here ICYMI: Forexlive Americas FX news wrap: CPI continues to cool And thoughts of a 50bp interest rate cut are gathering pace (we are a fickle lot aren’t we?): JP Morgan says the Fed has a green light for a 50bp rate cut in Sep. Here’s the trigger.Morgan Stanley flag

People’s Bank of China USD/CNY reference rate is due around 0115 GMT. The People’s Bank of China (PBOC), China’s central bank, is responsible for setting the daily midpoint of the yuan (also known as renminbi or RMB). The PBOC follows a managed floating exchange rate system that allows the value of the yuan to fluctuate

Japanese GDP for the April to June quarter of 2024 is better than the contraction in Q1. +0.8% q/q expected 0.5%, prior -0.6% QQ Annualised is +3.1% expected +2.1%, prior -2.3% Private consumption q/q +1.0% … up for the first time in 5 quarters expected +0.5%, prior -0.6% External demand q/q -0.1% expected -0.1%, prior

Australia MI Inflation Expectations for August 2024 come in at 4.5% Previous was 4.3% The focus is on the jpobs data due real soon: Australian jobs report due 15 August 2024, the unemployment rate will not be 10.1% This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

No end in sight for the woes besetting China’s property market. July house prices -0.7% m/m and -4.9% y/y priors -0.6% and -4.5% respectively Why buy now when they’ll be cheaper later is the vicious circle This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

HSBC recommends going long on AUD/NZD after the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) delivered a 25 basis point rate cut to 5.25%, citing the central bank’s dovish stance as a key factor. Key Points: RBNZ Rate Cut: The RBNZ cut its rate by 25bps to 5.25%, which was not entirely unexpected given the market

TS on the US dollar, this in summary recent Fed pivot has caused the dollar to depreciate since the start of Julymuch of this has been against the Japanese Yen, which has climbed approximately 10% over the past month, as the BOJ takes a different path of finally raising interest rates We think the greenback

It’s a busy one on the economic calendar. China’s economy is sputtering: the epic property crunch is now in its third year,burned by the property meltdown and lingering trauma of the pandemic, Chinese consumers are keeping a tight grip on their wallets local government finances are under severe strain private-sector confidence is in the doldrums

I very much doubt the speech will move the financial market needle much at all. In summary of the info received so far on what’s to be said: focusing her economic agenda on reducing the cost of groceries, housing, and healthcare, expanding the child tax credit, and differentiating herself from Republican Donald Trump on tariffs

What’s Warren Buffett holding? We will get a much better idea of what the Berkshire Hathaway CEO and other whales are holding as the 13F filing deadline hits. Tomorrow is 45 days following the end of the quarter, which means the forms that show holdings as of June 30 are due today. Expect a wave

On Thursday, the focus of US markets will shift from inflation to the health of the consumer. Interest rates are biting with a smattering of large companies reporting softening spending, including Home Depot and McDonald’s. Spending so far appears to be hurting most in rate-sensitive spaces but could quickly spread if consumers retrench. So far

The yen is liking the news: Japanese PM Kishida will not run for reelection in LDP race in September Kishida is said to be stepping down in response to funding scandals he is taking responsibility for. I’m not totally across Japanese election funding scandals (apart from knowing rule 1 of funding scandals anywhere is “don’t

Earlier: Reserve Bank of New Zealand announce cash rate cut to 5.25%NZD/USD marked lower after the Reserve Bank of New Zealand cut its cash rate I’m glad I got my forecast the right way! RBNZ Governor Orr doesn’t wait around for a bazillion confirmations, he just goes and gets it done. A bit like Wheeler

It’s been an uneventful pre-market and relatively steady since the close yesterday. There was a slight ‘sell the fact’ trade after CPI that was met with dip buyers. Futures are now 7 point higher, or 0.1%. One stock in focus is Alphabet after Bloomberg reported that US regulators are considering breaking it up. This article

Gold is down 1% today after a third failure near $2475. It’s still higher on the week after it shot up on Monday but it couldn’t get through the July highs and has since retreated. A big part of that is the market walking back its Fed rate cut expectations. What’s hard to square is

Fundamental Overview Yesterday, the US PPI report missed expectations by a big margin triggering a selloff in the US Dollar as the market started to position into a potentially soft US CPI release today. For the Fed, the market is split between a 25 and 50 bps cut in September and a total of 107

The market is feeling better and better about a recovery from the August rout. AI stocks are rebounding and the market is confident that the economy isn’t so bad and that if it is, the Fed will be there. I worry that the bond market is sending a different signal but the message could simple

The market continues to ratchet down bets on the Federal Reserve rapidly easing interest rates. September Fed fund futures are now priced for a 56% chance of a 25 basis point cut and a 43% chance of a 50 bps cut. That’s a far cry from just last week when market watchers were talking about

This piece is from analyst Michael Pascoe here is Australia, arguing that a Reserve Bank of Australia interest rate cut is likely on the horizon despite all the tough tough from Governor Bullock last week. Check it out here: The Reserve Bank fibs and has no idea about wages causing inflation The key points: RBA

The euro is now back to flat on the year. It opened at 1.1036, fell as low as 1.0601 on April 15 and has now climbed all the way back. There is some resistance at the December high of 1.1139 followed by last year’s high at 1.1276. The latest leg of EUR/USD is more about

Major currencies are lightly changed for the most part, with only the New Zealand dollar on the move so far today. That owes to a more dovish RBNZ as they become the sixth central bank among the G10 to cut interest rates in the latest cycle. The Fed looks primed to be the seventh of

Fundamental Overview Yesterday, the US PPI report missed expectations by a big margin triggering a selloff in the US Dollar as the market started to position into a potentially soft US CPI release today. The UK CPI this morning missed estimates across the board as well and raised the probabilities of a back-to-back cut in

It was around ~36% before that so it is a notable step up in terms of market pricing. And it sounds just about right to be honest. The overall report was a soft one by all means. Core annual inflation eased further, although is still above the 3% mark. But services inflation, one of the

What’s the bond market saying here? The July-August plunge in Treasury yields was understandable enough as the carry trade unwound, AI worries hit and shorts were squeezed. That’s all faded away in other markets this week and yet yields are still falling. Yes, some of that is falling inflation as illustrated by today’s CPI report

German DAX futures +0.2%UK FTSE futures +0.5% This follows the more solid showing by US indices yesterday, ending roughly at the highs for the day. So, European equities look buoyed as well coming into today and UK stocks will be happy with the latest inflation numbers here. US futures are more muted though, keeping flattish

Prior -0.6%; revised to -0.9% That’s a miss alongside a negative revision to boot. But at least it doesn’t take away from the Q2 GDP number released at the same time. Here is the breakdown for those interested: This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

The Reserve Bank of New Zealand is at 0200 GMT Wednesday, which is 2200 US Eastern time on Tuesday evening. Earlier previews: RBNZ monetary policy meeting – Reuters poll is not clear cut, 19 say hold, 12 say 25bp cutANZ forecast the RBNZ to remain on hold next week, signal a rate cut later in

Headlines: UK July CPI +2.2% vs +2.3% y/y expectedTraders now see BOE decision in September to be a coin flipThe kiwi is the main mover today amid dovish RBNZWhat are the distribution of forecasts for the US CPI?US CPI data due Wednesday, the ranges of estimates (& why they’re crucial to know)What is the market

Final numbers for today: German DAX, +0.4%France CAC +0.6%UK FTSE 100 +0.7%Spain’s Ibex +0.2%Italy’s FTSE MIB +0.9% The recovery from the early-August rout continues. This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

The WSJ Fedwatcher Nick Timiraos is out with his take on today’s CPI and he says: September rate cut from the Fed as close to a lock as these things getThis report makes it easier at the margin to avoid dissents on the first cutTo get 50 bps, you’d probably need to see something bad

Prior was -3728KGasoline -2894K vs -1434K expectedDistillates -1673K vs -636K expectedRefinery utilization +1.0% vs +0.1% expectedProduction mbpd 13.3mbpd vs 13.4mbpd prior API data late yesterday showed: Crude -5205KGasoline -3689KDistillates +612K Oil ticked lower on the EIA headlines, which are certainly a twist after the bullish private numbers yesterday. WTI was flat at $78.17 just before

Announcement is here: Reserve Bank of New Zealand announce cash rate cut to 5.25% NZD/USD lower: This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

Prior +6.9%Market index 251.3 vs 215.1 priorPurchase index 137.7 vs 133.9 priorRefinance index 889.3 vs 661.4 prior30-year mortgage rate 6.54% vs 6.55% prior The big jump in the past week comes as we see a spike in refinancing activity in particular. That comes as the average rate of the most popular US home loan came

Prior was +3.0% y/ym/m reading at +0.2% vs +0.2% expectedMonth-over-month unrounded +0.1549% Core measures: Core CPI +3.2 vs +3.2% expectedCore CPI m/m +0.2% vs +0.2% expectedCore unrounded +0.166%Real weekly earnings -0.2% vs +0.3% prior Supercore m/m +0.205% vs +0.054% priorSupercore y/y +4.468% vs +4.651% prior Key Details: Shelter index rose 0.4%, accounting for nearly 90%

Today’s stock market offers a vibrant tapestry of performances, with notable advancements in technology stocks counterbalanced by slight retreats in various other sectors. This heatmap snapshot provides actionable insights into the nuanced dynamics dominating today’s trading landscape. This article was written by Itai Levitan at www.forexlive.com.

Bitcoin continues to be a solid pre-cursor to the broader risk trade. And if you’re long stocks, that’s not a good thing at the moment. BTC has turned lower after an initial pop following CPI and is now just above $60,000. US equities are flat after giving up some modest early gains. This article was

The numbers via oilprice.com on Twitter: — Expectations I had seen centred on: Headline crude -2.2 mn barrelsDistillates -0.6 mn bblsGasoline -1.4 mn — This data point is from a privately-conducted survey by the American Petroleum Institute (API). It’s a survey of oil storage facilities and companiesThe official report is due Wednesday morning US time.

The days of CPI as a major market mover are over. As I suspected, there was something of a ‘sell the fact’ trade on the numbers. The headlines were lower than the consensus but the dollar didn’t fall, nor did Treasury yields. Instead, they both rose, though modestly. The move in bonds has stuck but

No changes to the initial estimate as the euro area economy is seen expanding slightly in Q2. The economic challenge has become tougher in Q3 though, with fears surrounding a contraction or at least stagnation continuing to build. This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

Fed’s Bostic is speaking and says: Balance of risks in economy is getting back to levelOur rate posture is restrictiveThat’s not where we want it to be foreverRecent inflation data give me more confidence we can get back to 2%. We need to see a little more data We need to make sure inflation trend

Oil – private survey of inventory shows a larger headline crude oil draw than was expectedIt is a solid day for US indices. Indices close the day near highs with PPI the catalyst.Rick Reider: Market cleaned out a lot of leveraged positionsCrude oil futures settled at $78.35Atlanta Fed Pres. Bostic: Balance of risks and economy

The consensus on today’s CPI is 3.0% y/y with core at 3.2% but I suspect it’s going to have to be well-below that to keep yields falling and stocks going up. The market front-run a soft (or at least in-line) CPI when yesterday’s PPI was released and has continued to pile in after UK CPI.

Whether just starting a trading journey or being a veteran of twenty years, everybody has something to learn as an investor. Knowledge is always at a premium, and this is why its developed into such a strong area of focus at the upcoming Finance Magnates Pacific Summit (FMPS), coming this August 27-29 in Sydney, Australia.

Prior +2.0%Core CPI +3.3% vs +3.4% y/y expectedPrior +3.5% The standout detail here is a further drop in core annual inflation in July. The headline reading is also lower than estimated but is a slight increase to June. But as core prices are seen easing further, that’s a vote of confidence for the BOE to

We went from pricing a soft landing to a crash landing and then back to something in between that now. Traders were pretty sure the Fed needed to cut by 50 bps and perhaps even via an emergency meeting on Monday last week. Yes, that was just a little over a week ago. Talk about

Prime Minister Kishida press conference. He is announcing he won’t be running to stay on as PM. To make full exit from deflation-prone economy, we must promote wage, investment growth and achieve target to expand size of Japan’s GDP to 600 trln yenImportant to show new face of LDP in leadership raceFirst step to do

Fundamental Overview Yesterday, the US PPI report missed expectations by a big margin triggering a selloff in the US Dollar as the market started to position into a potentially soft US CPI release today. That led to a key breakout in the NZDUSD pair which didn’t last as the RBNZ tonight cut rates by 25

Prior +2.2%HICP +2.7% vs +2.6% y/y prelimPrior +2.5% The good news is that core annual inflation is seen slowing further to 1.5%, down from 1.8% in June. That will give the ECB more confidence at least in chasing the next rate cut. This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

Why it’s important? In the Asian session, Eamonn published the range of estimates for today’s US CPI report. These ranges are important in terms of market reaction because when the actual data deviates from the expectations, it creates a surprise effect. Another important input in market’s reaction is the distribution of forecasts. In fact, although

Later today, Wednesday, 14 August, we get the US consumer inflation data. for July 2024due at 1230 GMT, which is 0830 US Eastern time Here’s what investment banks expect. This via the Wall Street Journal, posted here earlier. — Taking a look at the range of expectations compared to the median consensus (the ‘expected’ in

There are a couple of expiries to take note of, as highlighted in bold. They are for EUR/USD at the 1.0925 and 1.1035 levels. They former lies near the 200-hour moving average, so there is some technical significance there. However, price action today is largely going to be dictated by the reaction to the US

Reserve Bank of New Zealand Governor Adrian Orr is scheduled to speak at 0000 GMT (this is 1900 US Eastern time on Thursday) at the Wellington Chamber of Commerce in New Zealand The RBNZ decision is due at the top of the hour. Earlier previews: Reserve Bank of New Zealand decision due soon. Which will

Eurostoxx +0.5%Germany DAX +0.4%France CAC 40 +0.7%UK FTSE +0.6%Spain IBEX +0.4%Italy FTSE MIB +0.6% For UK stocks, investors are also cheering on the softer inflation numbers earlier here. Despite the more optimistic picture above, US futures are more muted on the day thus far. S&P 500 futures are flat as there is a more tentative

Fundamental Overview The Yen continues to struggle despite the dovish expectations around the Fed’s interest rates path. Yesterday, we got a big downside surprise in the US PPI report and although the USD weakened heavily against the other major currencies, the JPY failed to sustain the gains. One of the main reasons is that the

Nomura with remarks on the US equity markets and the Federal Reserve. On equities: downside risk has dropped, says Nomura cite macro hedge funds buying into the pullback … if not for these the softness would have been prolongedAlso, “We think the downside risk posed to U.S. equities by systematic investors is much less serious

Chief operating officer of Balckstone spoke on CNBC on TRuesday: US economy has been resilient but now there are signs of a slow downpointed specifically to weaker consumer sectorsays with inflation coming down, including in rental housing, the Federal Reserve could help the economy with rate cuts”… as this slowdown continues it gives the Fed

Market pricing is for a 29bp cut at the next RBNZ meeting, on October 9 and 67bp of cuts by November (meeting is Nov. 6) That is, a 25 bp rate cut is priced for the each of the next two meetings. NZD/USD update: Earlier: ICYMI – RBNZ cut its cash rate by 25bp, market

The main event in the European session was the UK CPI report which missed expectations across the board and incresed the probability of a back-to-back cut in September. There’s not much else for the rest of the session as we will just get the Eurozone industrial production and the second estimate of the Q2 GDP.

Reserve Bank of New Zealand Orr: confident inflation back in its target band can commence re-normalising rateswe considered a range of moves and consensus was for 25bpsprojections are NZ is headed towards a period of low and stable inflationbroad range of indicators are consistently soft Reasonable first step for monetary easing, in strong position to

Here is what the investment bank economists and analysts are expecting for the July inflation, CPI, data from the US due on Wednesday, August 14, 2024 at 8.30 am US Eastern time (1230 GMT) Info via a tweet from Nick Timiraoos at the Wall Street Journal: The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) seem on a

Reserve Bank of New Zealand has cut its Offical Cash Rate by 25 bps. Market pricing had tipped this, while most analyst did not. Added – a few tech gremlins have beset me … I’ve posted all the statement and minutes main points separately, here: ICYMI – RBNZ cut its cash rate by 25bp, market

The monthly Reuters Tankan survey, a guide to the Bank of Japan’s quarterly tankan survey: August manufacturers sentiment +10, July was +11May non-manufacturers sentiment +24 vs +26 in JulyNovember manufacturers index seen at +5, non-manufacturers at +26 Japanese manufacturers’ confidence slightly dipped in August. Its expected to dip further in the months ahead. This sentiment

US CPI data due Wednesday, the ranges of estimates (& why they’re crucial to know)RBNZ Governor Orr: Confident inflation back in its target bandJapan Kishida: Must promote wage, investment growth for full exit deflation-prone economyMarket pricing is for an Reserve Bank of New Zealand rate cut at its next meeting tooICYMI – RBNZ cut its

That is putting a major drag on NZD/USD, which is down over 1% to near 0.6000 currently. Given the more dovish signals, traders are now pricing in ~107 bps of rate cuts by year-end. There’s still just three meetings to go, in September, November, and December. While the “expectation” is for the RBNZ to stay

People’s Bank of China USD/CNY reference rate is due around 0115 GMT. The People’s Bank of China (PBOC), China’s central bank, is responsible for setting the daily midpoint of the yuan (also known as renminbi or RMB). The PBOC follows a managed floating exchange rate system that allows the value of the yuan to fluctuate

Media in Japan with the political bombshell news that Japanese PM Kishida will not run for re-election in the ruling party leadership race in September. By dropping out of the race to remain leader of his party he will step down as premier, local media reported. The JPY is strengthening a little on the news.

The Reserve Bank of New Zealand is at 0200 GMT Wednesday, which is 2200 US Eastern time on Tuesday evening. Earlier previews: Reserve Bank of New Zealand meet today – BNZ calls for an immediate rate cutRBNZ monetary policy meeting – Reuters poll is not clear cut, 19 say hold, 12 say 25bp cutANZ forecast

Good morning, afternoon and evening all. Any charts, technical analysis, trade ideas, thoughts, views, ForexLive traders would like to share and discuss with fellow ForexLive traders, please do so: This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

The major US indices got a boost from lower-than-expected PPI data. Tomorrow the CPI will be released. The PPI data does not necessarily translate into the CPI, but there is some crossover to the PCE data that will be released later this month. Tomorrow, CPI is expected to show a 0.2% gain after a -0.1%

Still like equities , but we have come a long way pretty quicklyCan evolve the portfolio and have a bit less equities at these multiplesYou can get a lot of yield without going out on the yield curveThinks the Fed cuts rates at September meetingPersonally I think the fed funds rate is priced wrongI would

1310 GMT, which is 0910 US Eastern time: Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis President Alberto Musalem speaks on the U.S. economy and monetary policy 1710 GMT, which is 1310 US Eastern time: Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia President Patrick Harker The docket of Fed speakers has been light, and it’ll continue to be light

The People’s Bank of China set the onshore yuan (CNY) reference rate for the trading session ahead. USD/CNY is the onshore yuan. Its permitted to trade plus or minus 2% from this daily reference rate.CNH is the offshore yuan. USD /CNH has no restrictions on its trading range.A significantly stronger or weaker rate than expected

Goldman Sachs just a little wary over some of the weaker economic data. Says a US recession is not priced in and there are signs of a slowdown in Europe and Chinaadd the recent softening in the US labor market But, says GS, equity markets are still positioned optimistically: cyclical stocks have underperformed during the

The Reserve Bank of New Zealand is at 0200 GMT Wednesday, which is 2200 US Eastern time on Tuesday evening. Earlier previews: RBNZ monetary policy meeting – Reuters poll is not clear cut, 19 say hold, 12 say 25bp cutANZ forecast the RBNZ to remain on hold next week, signal a rate cut later in

Sec. of State Blinkin has postponed his trip he Middle East. He was expected to leave for the region tonight, but postponed due to the uncertainty about the situation. This news is according to Axios citing sources. There is also increased tensions between Ukraine and Russia. This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

Crude oil futures are settling at $78.35, which is down -$1.71 or -2.14%. The high price today reached $80.11 which was just short of the 100-day MA (blue line on the chart below). Yesterday, the price approached that MA and found willing sellers as well. On the downside, the 200-day MA (green line) looms at

The NZDUSD is on a run. Today, the price moved above and away from the 200 bar MA on the 4-hour chart at 0.6020. It moved above the 100 day MA and the 61.8% retracement at 0.6036 area, and more recently, a swing level going back to early July at 0.60627. The next key target

German DAX futures +0.2%UK FTSE futures flat This comes with US futures also a touch higher on the day. S&P 500 futures are up 0.2% with Nasdaq futures up 0.3% and Dow futures up 0.2%. The litmus test for broader market sentiment will come later today in the form of the US PPI data. So,

The European indices are dragged higher by the US stocks, but gains are more subdued. While the S&P index is up 1.33% and the NASDAQ is now up 2.0%, the biggest gain in Europe was Spain’s Ibex which increased by 0.73%. The other indices were more subdued. The final numbers are showing: German DAX, +0.48%

Overview of Today’s Stock Market Today’s trading session showcased a dynamic performance across various sectors, with a notable surge in technology stocks leading the way. The market heatmap reveals a robust advancement in semiconductor and key tech players, fostering a buoyant sentiment among investors. As sectors vary in performance, understanding these dynamics can provide key

The AUDUSD has stretched higher today on the USD selling and risk on flows, and in the price is moving away from the 100 and 200 day MAs. Over the last 3-days, the price has been briefly moving above those MAs and backing off. The market has not been ready. Finally, the price has been

The sabers are rattling… Iran is said to be holding military drills in the northern part of the country, and on the sea holding Navy drills in the Caspian Sea near Azerbaijan. Earlier today, Hezbollah lobbed some bombs from Gaza that were ineffective. This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

Fundamental Overview Gold has been on a steady rise since the latter part of last week alongside crude oil which suggests that the price action might have been driven more by the tensions in the Middle East. That became even more evident yesterday as we got a Fox report saying that Iran could have attacked

The USDCAD has found support buyers near 1.3717 and resistance sellers near the 50% of the move up from the July low to the August high. That level comes in at 1.3766. The price has been between those extremes since middday on August 7th (4 trading days). The range is only around 50 pips. At

The USDJPY stalled the rally near a swing area earlier today near 147.886. The subsequent fall helped by the tamer US PPI data took the price toward the rising 100 hour MA (blue line at 147.037). The move below that level, opened the door for the lower 200 hour MA at 146.67. The low just

Fundamental Overview The S&P 500 bounced strongly from the lows last week following the good US Jobless Claims figures as the data quelled some of the fears around the labour market after the weak US NFP report. That’s been also evident from the market pricing for rate cuts as expectations for a 50 bps cut

From major financial institutions to individual investors, participants in the $7.5 trillion per day forex market rely on dedicated intermediaries to access this vast and complex ecosystem. Operating behind the scenes but fulfilling a vital role, forex brokers have become the crucial conduit between regular traders across the world and the fluid currency markets they

The NZD is the strongest and the CHF is the weakest as the NA session begins. The USD is mixed with gains vs the CHF and JPY balanced by declines vs the GBP, AUD and NZD. The EURUSD and USDCAD are little changed. The US PPI data will be reported today at 8:30 AM ET

Torsten Slok, chief economist at Apollo pushed back against the narrative that the US economy is slowing. “.. there are still no signs of a US recession, and the US economy is doing just fine with steady growth in .. restaurant bookings, air travel, hotel bookings, credit card data,” he wrote. “In short, Fed pricing

Besides the classic “as expected,” one of the analysts’ favorite phrases is “markets are talking.” This means that significant price changes could indicate that something major is coming. For example, if investors anticipate an increase in geopolitical tensions that could disrupt supply chains or oil or gas production, the dollar index, gold, and even Treasury

In the kickstart video earlier today, the 38.2% and the falling 100 bar MA on the 4-hour chart was holding resistance at 1.2810. Getting above that level and the 200 bar MA at 1.2819 would open the door, and that is what happened. The move has taken the price to 1.2829. The 50% of the

A market leader in providing liquidity solutions, X Open Hub, has confirmed its involvement in one of the largest online trading, fintech and crypto events in Asia-Pacific (APAC), announcing its role as an official exhibitor at the inaugural FMPS:24. The company will have a strong presence at the expo, shining a spotlight on its innovative

Prior was 1410 (revised to 3430)Overseas visitors change y/y +3.8% vs +12.1% prior NZD was trading at 0.6587 ahead of the data. This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

The EURUSD broke above targeted swing area between 10949 and 1.09477, and extended to the next target near 1.0963. Sellers leaned on the first look of that level. The short term support is now between 1.0942 and 1.09477. I would expect buyers to lean against that level. This article was written by Greg Michalowski at

I’m cautious on risk assets at the moment but I can see the case for optimism: 1) The Fed put is there. It worked last week. 2) The recessionary winds are blowing but you can’t underestimate the US consumer 3) Certainly a better entry point than it’s been 4) AI has run a long way

This will go down as one of the all-time crazy headlines. This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

Prior month 2.6% YoY revised to 2.7%Ex Food and energy MoM 0.0% vs 0.2% estimateEx Food and energy YoY 2.4% vs 2.7% estimate. Prior month 3.0%Ex Food and Energy/Trade 3.3% vs 3.2% (revised from 3.1%Ex Food and Energy/Trade MoM 0.3% vs 0.1% last month (revised from 0.0%) This article was written by Greg Michalowski at

The USDCHF moved above the 38.2% retracement of the move down from the July high to the August low both yesterday and again today. The US PPI data came in weaker pushing the price back to the downside, but support nearly 100 hour moving average at 0.8646 currently did attract some buying. In the short-term,

The broader S&P and NASDAQ indices are trading sharply higher and in the process making technical brakes to the upside. What are the next key targets? What are the close risks for each. I will go through each in this short video. This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

That’s the highest reading since February 2022 but it still sits below the 50-year average of 98. That’s the 31st straight month that it holds below said threshold now. Looking at the details, much of the improvement owes to a jump in the Expected Business Conditions component (+1.8) though while most other components were relatively

Prior was +0.8%Wage price index y/y +4.1% vs +4.0% expectedPrior was +4.1% y/y The numbers are a tad cooler than expected, which should continue to tilt the market towards a rate cut. The first one is nearly fully priced now for December. This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

There are a couple to take note of on the day, as highlighted in bold. The first being for EUR/USD at the 1.0900 mark again. So, that will help to keep a floor on price action at least until we get to the US PPI data later in the day. Similarly, the ones for AUD/USD

2024 world oil demand growth forecast unchanged at 970k bpd2025 world oil demand growth forecast seen at 950k bpd (previously 980k bpd)Chinese oil demand has contracted for third consecutive monthWeak growth in China now significantly dragging on global gainsOPEC+ cuts are tightening physical marketsCould see a supply deficit as US summer driving season is set

In the kickstart video for August 13, I take a look at through the major currency pairs – the EURUSD , USDJPY and GBPUSD – from a technical perspective. The US PPI data came in tamer than expectations thanks to a fall in service prices. That helped to send the USD lower. What did it

In a Reuters poll: The US 10-year yield to rise to 4.03% in three months. At the last poll the expectation was 4.25% (rates were higher at the time). The current 10 year yield is at 3.861%US 2-year yield to rise to 4.20% in 3 months. Last month, the expectation was for the yield to

US stocks close mixed. Dow down. S&P unchanged. Nasdaq higher.Crude oil futures settle at $80.06, up $3.22 or 4.19%US federal budget deficit for July -$244.00 billion versus -$242.00 billion estimateUS yields are trading lower (at new lows for the day)Crude trade above $79. Highest level since July 19Latest election poll: Harris 47.6% vs Trump 47.1%Geopolitics:

The major US stock indices are opening higher led by the NASDAQ index. A snapshot of the market 4 minutes into the open is currently shows: Dow Industrial Average 195.31 points or 0.50% at 39552.33S&P index is trading up 43.85 points or 0.82% at 5388.23. NASDAQ index of 205.59 points or 1.23% at 16986.20 The

US July NFIB small business optimism index 93.7 vs 91.5 priorThe risk mood continues to hold up, eyes on US PPI data laterGermany August ZEW survey current conditions -77.3 vs -75.0 expectedIEA makes no change to 2024 world oil demand growth forecast in latest reportEuropean equities open on a more positive note as risk mood

Israel media is reporting of explosions heard in Tel Aviv. Hamas armed wing is also saying that it has targeted Tel Aviv with two rockets.A Gaza rocket landed off Tel Aviv coast. There are no casualties reported Crude oil is trading at $79.60 which is down $0.46 on the day. The high price today reached

Prior +3.4%HICP +2.9% vs +2.9% y/y prelimPrior +3.6% The good news is that core annual inflation is seen easing further to 2.8%, down from 3.0% in June. But it is still taking a while to recede towards the 2% mark, so there’s that. This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

August 5 was the worst day in the history of the Nikkei 225 index as it cratered 12%. Just over one week later, that decline is now fully erased. The index is up 2.5% today as Japan returns from a long weekend. That puts it back at the closing level on August 4. The bad

Fundamental Overview The Nasdaq bounced strongly from the lows last week following the good US Jobless Claims figures as the data quelled some of the fears around the labour market after the weak US NFP report. That’s been also evident from the market pricing for rate cuts as expectations for a 50 bps cut in

Prior was -1.1%Index rises to 85 “Consumers breathed a small sign of relief in August as the RBA Board left interest rates unchanged and the support coming from tax cuts and otehr fiscal measures became more apparent,” said Westpac senior economist Matthew Hassan. Particular strength came in the ‘family finances’ section, which jumped 11.7%. This

Eurostoxx +0.4%Germany DAX +0.4%France CAC 40 +0.3%UK FTSE +0.3%Italy FTSE MIB +0.2%Spain IBEX +0.2% It’s a positive start to proceedings, with USD/JPY also trading up to fresh highs for the day at around 147.90 currently. It’s more of the same flows that we saw from yesterday, with markets continuing to breathe easier for now. The

The EURUSD and the GBPUSD both bounced off key hourly moving averages on the US session dip. The EURUSD bounced off its 100-hour MA at 1.0920. The 38.2% retracement of the move-up from the August low is also near that level. Staying above is more bullish going forward.The GBPSD and soffits 200-hour moving average at

Eamonn is off today so I’m on the Asia-Pacific shift. Japan is back today from a long weekend and hopefully the extra day of rest will keep Tokyo from coming unnerved again. Broader sentiment has been ok in US trading, save for Middle East war worries. In terms of economic data we start with: New

The major US stock indices are ending the day mixed with the Dow down, the S&P near unchanged and the Nasdaq index modestly higher. The final numbers are showing: Dow Industrial Average average -140.55 points or -0.36% at 39357.00S&P index rose 0.23 points or -0.0% at 5344.38NASDAQ index rose 35.31 points or 0.21% at 16780.61

It is pretty much the case of markets just letting out a sigh of relief. That after all the overblown panic in calling for emergency rate cuts on Monday last week. It’s a meme market these days. When things are going their way, it’s all bullish and life is good. But when a retracement or

Prior -68.9Outlook 19.2 vs 32.0 expectedPrior 41.8 The reading marks a setback to the slight German economic recovery earlier in the year. Meanwhile, the outlook is also worsening with ZEW noting that expectations for export-intensive German sectors are on the decline. That is not helped by worsening climates for the euro area, US, and also

The Japanese Lower House will hold a special session and likely ask BOJ Governor Ueda to attend, according to sources cited by Reuters. No doubt he will be grilled on the unexpected 15 bps hike and the turmoil that followed. This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

The question for the gold market is: How much of today’s rally close to a record high was fear of a Middle East war and how much was other fundamentals? So far in Asia, the ‘other’ category is winning. An Axios report said an attack was unlikely tonight and we’ve seen no pullback in gold.

The USDJPY has moved lower as the day comes to a close and in the process is moving closer to near converged 100 and 200 hour moving averages. In the new trading day, if the price can stay above those moving averages, the bias would remain more positive. Conversely, break below and look for more

Fitch lowered Israel’s credit rating to ‘A’ from ‘A+’ on Monday, citing worsening geopolitical risks. It continues to hold a negative outlook. “In our view, the conflict in Gaza could last well into 2025 and ther are risks of it broadening to other fronts,” Fitch said in a statement. Fitch expects Israel to permanently increase

Morgan Stanley reaffirms its forecast for the Bank of Japan (BoJ) to hike rates in January 2025, aligning with their broader strategy that includes expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts. They emphasize that the recent yen appreciation aligns with their projections based on interest rate differentials. Key Points: BoJ Hike Expected in January: Morgan Stanley

Fundamental Overview As many other markets, crude oil bottomed out around last Monday as growth fears abated and started to slowly gain ground following catalysts like the appointment of the new Hamas leader and good US jobless claims. Yesterday we got another strong wave of buying as we got a Fox report saying that Iran

The main event in the European session was the UK labour market report which surprised to the upside although there’s the usual reliability issue. Next, we will have the Eurozone ZEW which is expected to dip to 38.0 vs. 43.7 prior. In the American session, we will get the US NFIB Small Business Optimism index

Prior 4.4%Employment change 97k vs 3k expectedPrior 19kAverage weekly earnings +4.5% vs +4.6% 3m/y expectedPrior +5.7%Average weekly earnings (ex bonus) +5.4% vs +5.4% 3m/y expectedPrior +5.7%July payrolls change 24kPrior 16k; revised to 14k The headline statistic is quite bewildering and it paints a stronger labour market than in the months before. That being said, ONS

It’s coming up on midnight in Israel so if we’re likely to see an Iranian attack, it should come in the next six hours. Fox reported earlier that an attack was expected within 24 hours and that led to spikes in gold and oil. If/when the attacks happen, look for more of that along with

If you need a sign of how market players are feeling after the carry trade angst, the Nikkei is a pretty good gauge. The index closes up by 3.5% today to above 36,000. But the real test this week is still to come, with the US CPI report due tomorrow. This article was written by

The overnight high touched 148.22 for a brief moment but price action is settling back under the 148.00 level for now. The rebound in the pair since the middle of last week comes as the unwinding of carry trades have eased. The overall risk mood in broader markets also improved concurrently, allowing for USD/JPY buyers

Bitcoin is up about 1% in early trade today at $59,500. That’s just normal volatility for crypto but there could also be a premium in it with Elon Musk set to interview Donald Trump any time now. The conversation could shift to crypto and some could be trying to front-run that momentum. In any case,

Prior was +2.9%Prices +0.3% m/m vs +0.3% expectedPrior m/m +0.2% No surprise here but it will be interesting to see how the rapid jump in the yen will filter through to prices in the month’s ahead. This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

Prior was +4Business confidence +1 vs +4 prior This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

Major currencies are keeping lightly changed overall, with smaller ranges still holding so far today. It will be another placeholder session in Europe more or less, as market players are eyeing key US data this week. Here’s a look at dollar pairs and their daily ranges for now: Looking to the session ahead, UK labour

It’s tough to say why exactly he’s headed to the Middle East but he could know that some kind of Iranian strike is planned. He could also be getting involved in Israel-Hamas negotiations. This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

Japan is back from a holiday today and with Nikkei 225 futures up 1.2%, it looks like the index will head into the gap down from early August. This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

Australia Q2 wage price index +0.8% vs +0.9% expectedJapanese June PPI +3.0% y/y vs +3.0% expectedJuly Australia NAB business conditions +6 vs +4 priorGoldman Sachs sees July US core CPI slightly below estimatesJapan parliament to hold a special session to discuss Bank of Japan rate hikePBOC sets yuan midpoint at 7.1479 vs 7.1744 at the

“U.S. & Israeli officials tell me their assessment is that the Iranian attack isn’t happening tonight,” Axios reporter Barak Ravid reports. h/t @newsquawk This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

U.S. July budget deficit: $244 billion, up 10% from a year earlier.Adjusted deficit would be $45 billion narrower due to calendar differences.Deficit increase mainly due to lower benefits outlays last July. Receipts and outlays July receipts: $330 billion, up 20% year-over-year; adjusted increase: 12%.July outlays: $574 billion, up 16%; adjusted outlays would be 1% lower.Interest

The US CPI report is due out on Wednesday and it should add to the case that price pressures are no longer a market preoccupation. Goldman Sachs is out with its estimate of core CPI, which they peg at 0.16%, below the 0.2% unrounded consensus. They continue to see a decline in core goods, which

7.1479 versus the previous fix at 7.1458 This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

US yields are moving lower and trades at the lowest levels for the day. 2-year yield 4.021%, -3.2 basis points5-year yield 3.751%, -4.5 basis points10 year yield 3.905%, -3.7 basis points30-year yield 4.192%, -3.2 basis points. Flight to safety flows may are contributing to the declines today as chatter about Iran attacking Israel are louder.

The schedule for the Jackson Hole symposium is yet to be published but we now know at least one event. Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey will speak on Aug 23. The text of the speech will be released at 2000 GMT, according to the BOE. The title and topic are yet to be released

The price of crude oil futures are settling above $80 for the first time since July 18. The price settled at $80.06 up $3.22 or 4.19%. Geopolitical risks are helping to support the price of crude oil as Iran is threatening to retaliate against Israel. Technically, the price moved above its 200-day moving average (green

Level of returns, coupled with flexibility, has been the main reasons driving the ever-growing interest in forex trading. However, one of the most critical decisions a trader must make is picking the right trading platform since it will significantly determine how effective and successful your trading is going to be. The article tends to go

The major US stock indices are opening today mixed. The Dow Industrial Average versus lower. The S&P index is marginally higher while the NASDAQ index is a little better than marginally higher. A snapshot of the major indices nine minutes into the open is showing: Dow industrial average and is down -79.25 points or -0.20%

As chatter for a retaliatory strike by Iran on Israel get louder, the price of crude oil is stepping higher. The current price is trading at $79.13 up $2.29 or 2.98%. That is the highest level since July 19. Technically, earlier today, the price moved about its 200-day moving average (green line on the chart

Market Overview: Tech’s Prominent Rebound Today’s trading session witnessed a noteworthy rebound in the technology sector, with notable gains in semiconductor and software companies. A glance at the stock market heatmap showcased a diverse performance across other sectors, highlighting the dynamic nature of current market trends. 📈 Semiconductor & Software Giants Lead the Charge The

The NZDUSD moved lower in the early Asian session and in the process found support buyers against its 100 hour moving average. The price bounced and moved toward the high from last Friday’s trade. That high stalled just ahead of its 100 day moving average and 61.8% retracement of the move down from the July

A RCP US election poll sees: Harris 47.6%Trump 47.1% A virtual dead heat. Polls are nice, but it will be the swing states that will likely determine the next president. Key swing states include: WisconsinMichiganOhio PennsylvaniaGeorgiaArizona Both candidates have the potential to win the popular vote but lose election because they lose the swing states

Domestic sight deposits CHF 455.5 bn vs CHF 445.5 bn prior Swiss sight deposits rose in the past week but nothing out of the ordinary from the last few months. Here is the trend: This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

The USDCAD is trading to a new high after a test of Friday;s low finds buyers. The price – in the process – has moved back above the 61.8% of the move up from the July low and the 200 bar MA on the 4-hour chart at 1.37247 and 1.37287 respectively. The next upside target

As the NA session begins the AUD is the strongest and the JPY is the weakest. The USD is mixed with gains and losses vs the major currencies. It is a bank holiday in Japan today. It is Monday in the rest of the world, and the economic calendar is light. In the US and

US State Department is out saying: Deeply concerned by reports that Iran is planning to deliver hundreds of ballistic missiles to Russia Such a move would represent a dramatic escalation.We fully expect God is at peace talks to move forward as planned We believe that a cease-fire agreement is still possible Meanwhile Axios is reporting

A looming, or in some cases an apparent economic downturn, combined with a shifting banking atmosphere, underscores the need for a new approach to business banking. What exactly a new era of banking looks like is of course a matter for debate, one that will be on full display at the upcoming Finance Magnates Pacific

Fundamental Overview The losses peaked for the Canadian Dollar last Monday as the volatility normalised, and we got some good US data throughout the week. That helped to turn around the risk sentiment and give the Loonie a boost. The market has been slowly paring back the aggressive rate cuts expectations for the Fed as

All the focus and attention this week is on the US CPI report on Wednesday. But just before that, we will be getting the same report from the UK as well. The thing is given base effects, it is estimated that headline annual inflation in the UK is going to increase from 2.0% in June

The New York Fed survey of consumer expectations for July 2024 showed Inflation: Median one- and five-year-ahead inflation expectations remained unchanged at 3.0% and 2.8%, respectively.Median three-year-ahead inflation expectations fell sharply by 0.6 percentage points to 2.3%, the lowest since the survey’s inception in June 2013.Decline in three-year inflation expectations was most significant among respondents

As is usual for a Monday morning, market liquidity is very thin until it improves as more Asian centres come online … prices are liable to swing around, so take care out there. Indicative rates, not too much changed from late Friday levels: EUR/USD 1.0914USD/JPY 146.56GBP/USD 1.2760USD/CHF 0.8644USD/CAD 1.3727AUD/USD 0.6576NZD/USD 0.5999 This article was written

German DAX futures +0.5%French CAC 40 futures +0.4%UK FTSE futures +0.4% The mood music is helped by the slight gains in US indices at the end of last week too, which nearly saw the S&P 500 and Nasdaq fully erase losses for the week. For now, the steadier risk mood overall is also helping. S&P

In geopolitical news, Fox news is reporting that Iran could attack Israel in less than 24 hours. The attack is in retaliation for the killing of Hamas political leader Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran late last month. As Western allies in France, Germany and the United Kingdom call on Israel and Hamas to show “no further

The AUDUSD moved higher last week, but after reaching the 100-day moving rigid 0.66018, the buyers and sellers started a battle that has been confined to the following 100 bar moving out on the 4- our chart below (currently at 0.6561), and the 100 day moving average above and 0.66018. The price today is back

Goods and services prices set to rise againWage growth also still a concern for inflationWage pressures could take years to dissipate That said, she mentions that she has personally toned down her own hawkishness from a 10 to a 7 currently. That since the start of the year as price pressures have eased so far

People’s Bank of China USD/CNY reference rate is due around 0115 GMT. The People’s Bank of China (PBOC), China’s central bank, is responsible for setting the daily midpoint of the yuan (also known as renminbi or RMB). The PBOC follows a managed floating exchange rate system that allows the value of the yuan to fluctuate

The moves point to a further relaxing to the carry trade unwind as risk sentiment is keeping steadier. USD/JPY in particular is up 0.5% to 147.30 levels now but is keeping just near the topside of the recent bounce from last week: It’s not much of a suggestion that we are due a stronger retracement

Bank of America CEO Brian Moynihan spoke on US TV over the weekend. He had a warning for the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC): the Fed is in a position they have to be careful that they don’t slow down too much He was referring to sowing spending amongst consumers: Well, in our consumer base

As London/European traders look to exit for the day, stocks have turned back to the downside. The S&P is now trading in negative territory by -4.25 points or -0.06%. The NASDAQ index is still higher but only by 21.24 points or 0.12% at 16766. The high price reached 16895 on the last hourly bar.. There

A Japanese market holiday isn’t making it too exciting to start the new week. Overall market action is much calmer, though USD/JPY is creeping a little higher to 147.15 currently. Still, the pair is “only” sitting in a 50 pips range so it pales in comparison to the swings from last week. Besides that, other

Fundamental Overview The Swiss Franc lost some more ground against the USD last Thursday as the US Jobless Claims figures came out better than expected. That helped ease the fears around the US labour market triggered by the weak NFP report and improved the risk sentiment. The market has been slowly paring back the aggressive

As the week gets started, the three major currency pairs are getting their feet under them. For the EURUSD and GBPUSD, they are both trading up and down. Meanwhile, buyers in the USDJPY are pushing to the upside and extending above the key 200 hour MA at 147.07. The EURUSD is trading above and below

Tuesday’s key events include several important economic indicators from Australia, such as the Westpac consumer sentiment report, the wage price index q/q, and the NAB business confidence. In the U.K., we’ll see the release of the claimant count change, the average earnings index 3m/y and the unemployment rate. Meanwhile, in the U.S., the market will

It’s a steady and quiet start to trading this week and understandably so. Market players will be rather pensive, waiting on some big US data in the days ahead. We’ll get a bit of a teaser tomorrow from the PPI report but the big one to watch this week will be the CPI report on

Good morning, afternoon and evening all. Any charts, technical analysis, trade ideas, thoughts, views, ForexLive traders would like to share and discuss with fellow ForexLive traders, please do so: This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

Saudi crude oil exports to China are set to fall in September by about 3 mn barrelsRBA’s Hauser says there is a risk the unemployment rate could rise faster than assumedChina’s struggling economy overly reliant on exports, 2nd trade war with Trump a nightmareChina doubling down on its overcapacity strategy, digging the economy into a

Fundamental Overview The Yen lost some more ground last Thursday as the US Jobless Claims figures came out better than expected. That helped ease the fears around the US labour market triggered by the weak NFP report and improved the risk sentiment. The market has been slowly paring back the aggressive rate cuts expectations for

The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) is set to release its latest monthly report on Monday August 12. The OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report (MOMR) covers major issues affecting the world oil market and provides an outlook for crude oil market developments for the coming year. The report provides a detailed analysis of

The market is fighting something of a hangover today after all the drama of the past two weeks. Japan was out for holiday today and the US economic calendar is empty, so it’s a good moment for markets to catch a breather. What’s notable though is that the yen is broadly weaker with USD/JPY up

The USDCHF is stretching to the upside as the market continues to unwind the flight to safety flows that helped to push the USDCHF lower in July. The price bottomed last Monday after the Nikkei fell -12.4%, and the S&P and Nasdaq indices moved down -3.0% and 3.4% respectively. The price has been stepping higher

Headlines: USD/JPY Technical Analysis – Waiting for a breakout of the rangeDollar trades more mixed as risk sentiment holds up for nowBOE’s Mann says still concerned about upside risks to inflationUS data will keep markets in check for nowOPEC slashes 2024 oil demand growth forecast on softer China outlookGermany July wholesale price index +0.3% vs

I posted a little while back on this forecast from BCA Research: Canada-based BCA Research recently warned that the S&P 500 could fall to 3,750 by early 2025 The firm reiterated this forecast in a report published late lat week: expects stocks to stabilize in the near termsays though that the medium-term direction is to

Hedge funds have been safeguarding against a global economic slowdown via commodity shorts in all likelihood. Bloomberg data showed a net short of 153K contracts across 20 raw-materials markets in the latest week, that’s the most since at least 2011. The positioning is particularly stark in oil, where the net was cut by 110 million

Slight delay in the release by the source. Relative to the same month a year ago, wholesale prices are seen down 0.1%. But the decline has eased compared to June, when prices were down 0.6% compared to the same month in 2023. This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

Reuters conveying the info, citing several trade sources Saudi crude oil exports to China are set to fall in September to about 43 million barrels, citing monthly allocations for term buyers. September exports to China are estimated to slip about 3 million barrels from about 46 million barrels in August 3 mn barrels over a

As it’s usually the case for Mondays, we don’t have any notable event today. There’s the US consumer inflation expectations survey from the NY Fed in the American session, but that’s not a market moving release. The sentiment in the markets is generally positive as the last Monday’s rout is now in the rear-view mirror

Rate cuts by year-end Fed: 99 bps (53% probability of 25 bps rate cut at the upcoming meeting) ECB: 66 bps (90% probability of rate cut at the upcoming meeting) BoE: 43 bps (61% probability of no change at the upcoming meeting) BoC: 72 bps (92% probability of rate cut at the upcoming meeting) RBA:

Prior was -12.2% (revised to -12.7%)Permits at $9.9 billion vs $11.6 billion priorresidential permits decreased 11.5% to $6.5 billion, led by multi-unitsingle-family homes +4.0% m/mnon-residential sector permits decreased 18.1% following a 21.3% increase in May These are back-to-back monthly drops of 12.7% and 13.9% in Canadian building permits. The condo boom is certainly over with

Last week Jeremy Seigel was lambasted for screaming for a 75bp Federal Reserve emergency rate cut. About that 75 basis point emergency cut… As you’ll see from that linked post, he did pull his head in. I’m not sure what the point of screaming for such a panic move was. unless it was the publicity.

The Wall Street Journal (gated) says Trump’s proposed 60% tariff on imports from China would cause much steeper economic damage to China because the tariffs would be higher and China’s economy is much more vulnerable. The Journal makes the point that China’s export surge is a bright spot for an otherwise struggling economy. (ps. I

2024 world oil demand growth forecast seen at 2.11 mil bpd (previously 2.25 mil bpd)2025 world oil demand growth forecast seen at 1.78 mil bpd (previously 1.85 mil bpd) On the change, OPEC says that softening expectations for China’s oil demand is the main reason for that. But the bloc maintains that despite a slow

There is just one to take note of on the day, as highlighted in bold. That being for EUR/USD at the 1.0900 level. With price action also keeping in between its key hourly moving averages of 1.0890-22 currently, the expiries are likely to help play a role in keeping price movement more limited before rolling

Eurostoxx +0.4%Germany DAX +0.6%France CAC 40 +0.4%UK FTSE +0.6%Spain IBEX +0.6%Italy FTSE MIB +0.5% The make or break this week will be on the inflation data on Wednesday. While market players will be honed in on the US numbers, I want to say that one shouldn’t underestimate the potential for early shockwaves from the UK

The New Zealand Institute of Economic Research (NZIER) runs a ‘shadow board’ of analysts. The Shadow Board is independent of the RBNZ and does not represent what the RBNZ is going to do but rather what their view is that the RBNZ should do. That is, the Shadows do not preview what they think will

Westpac’s 1 – 3 month view on the Australian dollar, in very brief. This is a great summary of where we are at where we are going: Conditions remain very unsettled, and AUD/USD looks set to remain choppy and challenging. Further “volatility shocks” can’t be ruled out, which would see a retest of the 0.63-0.64

Oil futures markets are about to open. The Israeli Air Force and Military Intelligence Directorate have been placed on High Alert. This follows observations in Western Iran suggesting an imminent attack. Assessments include: Hezbollah will startIran will attack a few hours later Rising tensions in the Middle East are supportive for oil prices at the

Solita Marcelli, chief investment officer for the Americas at UBS Global Wealth Management spoke on Friday, says upside ahead for equities. Citing: Federal interest-rate cut aheadsolid growth backdrop“Because of this, I think the markets can be supported” “There are also some contrarian buy signals that are emerging.””With economic and earnings fundamentals still good and the

Makoto Sakurai is a former Bank of Japan monetary board member. says the Bank of Japan will not be able to hike again in 2024predicts a rate hike by March 2025 If he is right it’ll be a positive for calming markets and the Nikkei. ps. Today is a market holiday in Japan – closed

Reserve Bank of Australia Deputy Governot Hauser, speaking at an Economic Society of Australia (QLD) event: Economic forecasts are subject to huge uncertainty.Assume inflation stickiness due to weaker supply, labour market tightness.But spare capacity could easily be much higher, or much lower than we assume.Assume unemployment will rise only slowly, but risk of faster increase.Assume

This article is concerning, titled: China’s Real Economic Crisis – Why Beijing Won’t Give Up on a Failing Model Here is the link. It’s a long, long piece, but, in summary: China’s economy is struggling despite the end of zero-COVID policies, with sluggish GDP growth and sagging consumer confidence.The main issue is structural overcapacity in

The People’s Bank of China set the onshore yuan (CNY) reference rate for the trading session ahead. USD/CNY is the onshore yuan. Its permitted to trade plus or minus 2% from this daily reference rate.CNH is the offshore yuan. USD /CNH has no restrictions on its trading range.A significantly stronger or weaker rate than expected

US Defense Secretary Austin spoke to his Israeli counterpart Gallant in a call Austin said he has ordered the USS Abraham Lincoln carrier strike group to accelerate its transit to the Middle EastAustin has also ordered the USS Georgia guided missile submarine to the Central Command region Earlier: Oil traders – Israel placed on High

ING previewing the Reserve Bank of New Zealand meeting on Wednesday 14 August, this the bottom line: It is a very close call, and consensus is split between a 25bp cut and a hold by the Reserve Bank of New Zealand on 14 August. However, we are inclined to think the RBNZ may still prefer

UBS Global Wealth Management mull the wild swings in markets last week, noting only a mild impact on EUR/USD. expect the rate to rise graduallysays US exceptionalism (the US economy outperforms the rest of the world) was key to the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) holding higher (than other global central banks) for longerexceptionalism will

The latest survey from the UK’s Chartered Institute of Personnel and Development shows that the country’s employers plan lowest pay rises in two years. Info comes via Reuters. UK employers are planning to raise wages by just 3% over the coming year the lowest planned increase in two yearsa significant drop from the 4% expected

Its an empty data calendar with regards to major FX. It’s a market holiday in Japan today. Apart from a speech from Andrew Hauser, Deputy Governor of the Reserve Bank of Australia. at midday Sydney timewhich is 0200 GMTand 2200 US Eastern time (Sunday evening)at the Economic Society of Australia (QLD)I haven’t seen a topic

Japanese markets are closed today, Monday, August 12, 2024 local time, for observance of the Mountain Day holiday. The holiday will mean no physical trade of US Treasuries. it’ll also thin out liquidity across other markets, notably yen crosses. Mountain Day fell on the 11th but is being observed today. Mt. Fuji is the biggie

CIBC now expects both the Fed and Bank of Canada to cut rates by 25bps at each of their next three meetingsThis represents a 25bp lower endpoint for rates in 2024 and 2025 compared to previous forecastsDisinflation appears entrenched, allowing central banks to focus on downside economic risksHowever, CIBC doesn’t see an imminent recession despite

UPCOMING EVENTS: Tuesday: Australia Wage Price Index, UK Labour Market report, Eurozone ZEW, US NFIB Small Business Optimism Index, US PPI.Wednesday: RBNZ Policy Decision, UK CPI, US CPI.Thursday: Japan Q2 GDP, Australia Labour Market report, China Industrial Production and Retail Sales, UK Q2 GDP, US Retail Sales, US Jobless Claims, US Industrial Production and Capacity

12th-16th August 2024 Mon: OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report; Japanese Market Holiday (Mountain Day), German Retail Sales (May), Indian Trade Balance (Jul)Tue: IEA Oil Market Report, Australian Wage Price Index (Q2), UK Jobs (Jun/Jul), German ZEW Survey (Aug), US PPI (Jul)Wed: RBNZ Announcement and Quarterly MPS, Bank of Israel Announcement, UK Inflation (Jul), Swedish CPIF

“I am not confident that inflation will decline in the same way as in the second half of last year.”Inflation still “uncomfortably above” 2% targetLabor market showing signs of cooling, but uncertainties remainUpside risks to inflation persist, including housing and geopolitical factorsCalls for patience in monetary policy decisionsCritical of rapid regulatory changes in banking sectorAdvocates

With less than an hour left to go in trading, the broader stock indices are trying to fight its way to a positive close for the trading week. Both the S&P and NASDAQ indices are currently on pace for a negative close. If it remains that way, it would represent the fourth consecutive down week

Crude oil futures are settling the day and $76.84 that is up $0.65 or 0.85%. For the trading week, the prices closing up $3.32 or 4.51%. The gain this week comes after four straight weeks of declines. The low price it this week reached $71.67 which was the lowest level since February 5. The price

Broader US stock indices fight for a positive week with less than an hour to goCrude oil futures and settle at $76.84Key events and releases for next week’s tradingIn the future you will vote for who can keep the lights onBaker Hughes US oil rig count +3European equity close: The week finishes much better than

The US CPI and Retail sales will dominate the economic releases next week. The RBNZ will announce their interest rate decision on Wednesday in NZ. Tuesday August 13 9:30 PM ET: AUD Wage Price Index q/q (Estimate: 0.9%, Prior: 0.8%)2 AM ET: GBP Claimant Count Change (Estimate: 14.5K, Prior: 32.3K), GBP Average Earnings Index 3m/y

Oil rigs at 485 vs 482 priorGas rigs 97 vs 98 prior There is a leveling-off of US drilling activity that partly reflects poor natural gas prices. Much of that market hinges on how could this winter is. This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

IN the kickstart video for August 9, I take a look at three of the major currency pairs, the EURUSD, USDJPY and GBPUSD from a technical perspective FOr the EURUSD it is trading up and down in trading today but did find resistance sellers against its 100 hour moving average at 1.09283. That remains to

On the day: Stoxx 600 +0.6%German DAX +0.1%Francis CAC +0.3%UK’s FTSE 100 +0.3%Spain’s IBEX +0.7%Italy’s FTSE MIB +0.2% On the week: Stoxx 600 +0.3%German DAX +0.3%Francis CAC +0.1%UK’s FTSE 100 +0.1%Spain’s IBEX -0.4%Italy’s FTSE MIB -0.7% The STOXX 600 was down by as much as 3.6% early in the week but clawed it all back

These comments from Brookfield CEO Bruce Flatt caught my attention: The next 20 years will be an unprecedented period for electricity build-out. The electrification of industrial capacity, automobiles, heating for houses, and other uses is driving unprecedented growth in the demand for electricity. On top of that, the world is adding data centers for Al

Fundamental Overview Gold erased most of the losses from the Monday’s global stock market rout as the ISM Services PMI and especially the US Jobless Claims yesterday improved the risk sentiment. This might be just a retracement of the liquidations experienced on Monday as it doesn’t look like there are strong reasons for a rally

The major US stock indices are trading mixed in early action. The NASDAQ and the S&P are little changed. The Dow industrial average is lower. A snapshot of the market 11 minutes into the open and showing: Dow industrial average -125.70 points or -0.32% at 39320.80.S&P index -2.89 points or -0.05% at 5316.41.NASDAQ and X

What’s in a 19-pip move? That’s the total change in USD/JPY on the weekly chart. Of course it doesn’t tell the whole story, not even close. The pair cratered after hitting a 34-year high last month and had fallen more than 20 big figures by Monday. The drop came as the carry trade collapsed and

The USDCAD is little changed after the Canadian jobs report. Although the employment change was lower by -2.8K versus +22.5 estimate, the full-time jobs increased by 61.6K. The part-time jobs fell by -64.4K offsetting those gains. Stronger full-time is better than the declines in part-time jobs. The unemployment rate also remained steady at 6.4% versus

Prior +0.8%HICP +1.6% vs +1.7% y/y prelimPrior +0.9% Core annual inflation remained steady at 1.9%, so that’s at least a positive as price pressures in general hold just below the 2% mark in the Italian economy last month. This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

The US dollar is under mild selling pressure across the board as the trading week winds down in London. The dollar benefited from the safe haven trade early in the week but markets have calmed and that’s led to the unwind of some safe haven flows. At the same time, the Treasury market has also

At one point on Monday this week, some market players were calling for emergency rate cuts by the Fed. To them, the US jobs report on Friday was enough to signal doom and gloom in the economy. But let’s be honest, it was more to do with them crying over carry trade losses and wanting

The AUD/USD is reaching new session highs, breaking above two of four key technical levels: the 50% retracement of the move down from July at 0.6473 and the 100-bar moving average on the four-hour chart at 0.6577. The current price is trading at 0.6586. The next targets are the 200-day moving average at 0.6592 and

JP Morgan Asset Management (info comes via a Bloomberg report, gated) says the Bank of Japan is unlikely to raise interest rates again soon. JPAM say further tightening hinges on the US economy’s performance: BOJ may move again only if the Federal Reserve cuts rates and stabilizes the US economy.believes any further tightening by the

The Canada jobs data had something for everyone today. The unemployment rate was steady vs. last month at 6.4%, but lower than the estimate of 6.5%. The employment data showed a decline of -2.8K for the 2nd consecutive month decline, but there was 61K of full time jobs but -64K of part time jobs. So

The seeds of what would become a tumultuous Monday for Asian markets were sown during the previous Friday’s U.S. trading session. A seismic shift in investor sentiment was triggered by a far weaker-than-expected Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report, which painted a less rosy picture of the U.S. economy than anticipated. This unexpected economic data sent shockwaves

🚀 Today’s Stock Market Overview This article was written by Itai Levitan at www.forexlive.com.

The CHF is the strongest and the AUD is the weakest as the NA session begins. Today at 8:30 AM ET, Canada will release its July jobs report. The expectation are for: Employment Change (Jul): Estimate 22.5k, Prior -1.4kUnemployment Rate (Jul): Estimate 6.5%, Prior 6.4%Full-Time Employment Change (Jul): Prior -3.4kPart-Time Employment Change (Jul): Prior 1.9kParticipation

The Nikkei is ending the day up by 0.56% and on the week itself, it is down 2.46%. The latter sounds bad but it really looked like it was going to be much worse after the Monday close: Japan’s Nikkei closes down by a whopping 12% to its lowest since November last year But a

The AUDUSD moved to the lowest level since November 2023 on Monday as Japan stocks plummeted. However, after breaking below the low from 2024 at 0.63614, the price could only make it to 0.6348 before it snapped back to the upside and started to start the recovery. Although that recovery had its fits and starts

Gold has perked up in the past few minutes, rising a few dollars to $2430. That comes after a large gain yesterday and a series of higher lows over the past month. Those are reasons for optimism. However the main feature on the daily chart is a double top near $2475. So higher lows vs

Fed’s Barkin is scheduled to speak at 3 PM ET. ON Friday after the US jobs report he said: Not ready to embrace the 50 bp cut debateThat 114K jobs is reasonable.We’re going to get a lot of data between now and September. There will be two whole rounds of jobs reports two whole rounds

On Wednesday, the USDCHF moved back above its 100-hour moving average and although the price corrected lower into yesterday’s Asian and early European session, the downside momentum found willing buyers near that moving average level. The subsequent rise on the back of higher US stocks yesterday (and the unwinding of the flight to safety flows

Eurostoxx +0.2%Germany DAX +0.1%France CAC 40 +0.3%UK FTSE +0.3%Spain IBEX +0.4%Italy FTSE MIB flat S&P 500 futures and Nasdaq futures are flat, so that’s not leaving all too much to work with. The market mood is steadier following the gains yesterday but that owed much to better US data. Today, traders will have to fend

The NZDUSD fell to a new low for the year on Monday on the back of the sharp fall in the Nikkei 225 (-12.4%). However, that new low only took out the April 2024 low by a few pips, and the price snapped higher. The momentum stalled near highs from last week nearly 0.5982 and

ANZ provides insights into the outlook for the USD and GBP in the upcoming week, focusing on the impact of recent macroeconomic data and positioning trends. Key Points: USD Outlook: Macroeconomic Stability: Despite market reactions suggesting otherwise, ANZ believes the US macroeconomic backdrop is not as dire. The labor market is easing but trending towards

The scare for lower growth and increasing unemployment was lessened today after initial jobless claims came in lower-than-expected 233K versus 250K last week. Maybe the employment picture is not so alarming after all. If bad data is bad for the market, good data has to be good for the market, and that is what we

Inflation, both CPI and PPI, data from China for July 2024 The m/m PPI is -0.2% This data comes in higher than expected for CPI, and also (not as negative as expected) for PPI. The pick up in consumer inflation moves the danger of deflation in China little further away. It also suggest some improvement

Fundamental Overview The Russell 2000 bounced strongly from the lows yesterday following good US Jobless Claims figures as the data quelled some of the fears around the labour market after the weak US NFP report last Friday. The market pricing for rate cuts eased a bit but remains quite elevated with a 55% probability of

Former ECB Vice President Vitor Constâncio on Thursday, tips a 25bp rate cut from the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) in September but the same from the European Central Bank is a coin toss: — Note that final line from Constancio on ‘normative’ terms. He draws a clear distinction between what he thinks will happen

A note from LPL, the largest independent broker-dealer in the United States on using the stock market as a prediction tool for the US election. The S&P 500 index has historically been a strong predictor of U.S. presidential election outcomes, with an 83% accuracy rate since 1928. The indication comes from the stock market’s performance

BofA anticipates a partial reversal of June’s downside inflation surprise in the upcoming July CPI report, projecting modest increases in both headline and core CPI, which could influence the Fed’s decision-making for rate cuts in September. Key Points: Forecasted Headline CPI: Monthly Increase: BofA forecasts a 0.3% month-over-month (m/m) rise in headline CPI, with an

Wharton professor and frequent market commentator Jeremy Siegel caused a stir on Monday by calling for an emergency 75 basis point rate cut as markets melted down. He doubled down by calling for another 75 bps in September “at minimum.” Skip ahead a few days and he has had a change of heart. “I no

Prior month -1.4KEmployment change -2.8K vs +22.5K expectedUnemployment rate 6.4% vs 6.4% expected (up 0.9% y/y)Prior month employment rate 6.4%Full-time employment +62.0K vs -3.4K priorPart-time employment -64.4K vs +1.9K priorParticipation rate 65.0% vs 65.3% priorAverage hourly wages y/y 5.2% vs 5.4% last month These are back-to-back negative numbers, though they’re mitigated somewhat by the gain

Prudent monetary policy should be flexible, moderate, precise and effective.Will guide reasonable creditr growth.Will lower firms’ financing and household credit costs steadily.Will promote the steady decline in the cost of comprehensive social financing.Will maintain fundamental stability of Yuan exchange rate at a reasonable equilibrium level.Will implement measures to prevent and resolve risks in key aread

Timing and pace of rate cuts will be based on the data The narrative surrounding Fedspeak at the moment is that they are gearing towards a September rate cut. All the kicking and screaming from earlier this Monday hasn’t changed that whatsoever. And if another bout of volatility hits markets, I would expect policymakers to

The good news on the hurricane front is that a formation that was tracking similarly to Beryl fizzled this week but the bad news is that it’s still early in hurricane season and another one has formed in the mid-Atlantic. The NHC says a tropical depression could form by early next week and the chance

China treasuries fall after state media says trading accounts must not be borrowedHow the S&P 500 predicts the winner of the US Presidential electionSociete Generale says its too early to call a US recessionICYMI – Ex-ECB Constancio says September rate cut only a 50-50 chance – inflation concern“No need for the Bank of Japan to

Signs mount that the Canadian consumer is slowing with jobs report due todayPBoC: Will guide reasonable credit growthFed’s Collins: It will be appropriate to ease soon if data aligns with expectationsWhat to watch out for on the economic calendar next week?US futures stick with the bounce from yesterday so far on the sessionWeekly update on

The highlight on the North American economic calendar today is the Canadian July employment report but it comes amidst sign that consumer spending is slowing down. RBC is out with its latest consumer spending tracker based on credit card data and Canada’s largest bank saw a 0.6% decline in July. “Canadian consumers are pulling back

Via Reuters, another move from Chinese authorities to fight the surge in bonds in the country: Chinese treasuries fell on Friday after state media said trading accounts must not be borrowed or transferred, following the launch of a probe by regulators into suspected misbehaviour in the country’s red-hot bond market. Borrowed or transferred interbank bond

Gold and the USD are often intertwined. Amid the recent drama surrounding the US Federal Reserve and its indecisiveness regarding interest rate cuts, this topic is more poignant and relevant than ever. This saga provides the perfect segue to the upcoming Finance Magnates Pacific Summit (FMPS), taking place in just a few weeks on August

The Mexico central bank lowered their benchmark interest rate to 10.75% from 11%. The expectations were split between unchanged and a 25 basis point cut. Banco de México’s Governing Board lowered the target for the overnight interbank interest rate by 25 basis points to 10.75%, effective August 9, 2024.Economic activity remained heterogeneous across countries in

Kansas City Federal Reserve Bank President Jeffrey Schmid, speaking with the Kansas Bankers Association’s annual meeting in Colorado Springs, Colorado: If inflation continues to come in low, it will be appropriate to adjust policy. Current stance of Fed policy is ‘not that restrictive.’ Financial conditions can impact real economy, but Fed must remain focused on

There are a couple to take note of on the day, as highlighted in bold. The first one being for EUR/USD at the 1.0900 mark. That should help to keep a floor on price action in the session ahead, with the pair itself settling just above the figure level following yesterday’s push and pull. Then,

Good morning, afternoon and evening all. Any charts, technical analysis, trade ideas, thoughts, views, ForexLive traders would like to share and discuss with fellow ForexLive traders, please do so: This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

MUFG on the Bank of Japan outlook, a conditional view: “If financial markets stabilize and the pace of yen gains slows, then at least one more BOJ hike still appears likely in the current fiscal year.” MUFG cite the Bank of Japan Summary of Opinions (published yesterday): summary sent a clear signal for further interest-rate

There was a bit of a brief hiccup in the handover from Asia to Europe but the mood music is starting to feel better again now. S&P 500 futures are now up 0.4% and Nasdaq futures up 0.7% so far on the session. And that is also keeping European indices in good spirits, with the

The Reserve Bank of New Zealand meeting on August 14 is very much ‘live’. decision due at 2pm New Zealand time which is 0200 GMT which is 2200 US Eastern time on the 13th The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) is expected to keep its key cash rate at 5.50% at next Wednesday’s meeting.

What I am hearing from people on the ground is that in the labor market, people are cutting back on hiring, but not firing.Job growth has settled down, but still adding jobsTheis is a lot more labor supply than thought a year or two ago.The math of that suggests unemployment rate goes up. What would

Fundamental Overview The Nasdaq bounced strongly from the lows yesterday following good US Jobless Claims figures as the data quelled some of the fears around the labour market after the weak US NFP report last Friday. The market pricing for rate cuts eased a bit but remains quite elevated with a 55% probability of a

The US Jobless Claims yesterday came out much better than expected. This is the most timely indicator we have on the labour market.The market reacted strongly, with the S&P 500 (chart below) rallying by 2.4% in a single day, which was the best one day gain since November 2022. WHY THE MARKET REACTED LIKE THAT?

The low around 15 minutes earlier saw the index down by around 0.9% as price volatility continues to stick around. The selling pressure coincides with the index failing to push up against the 38.2 Fib retracement level of the plunge since July. Besides that, the drop here matches up with a fall in US futures

Rate cuts by year-end Fed: 102 bps (54% probability of 50 bps rate cut at the upcoming meeting) ECB: 65 bps (87% probability of rate cut at the upcoming meeting) BoE: 42 bps (67% probability of no change at the upcoming meeting) BoC: 73 bps (90% probability of rate cut at the upcoming meeting) RBA:

Prior +2.2%HICP +2.6% vs +2.6% y/y prelimPrior +2.5% Core annual inflation remains at 2.9% so the ECB will definitely be hoping for more progress in the coming months to keep up with their rate cut cycle. This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

Via a note from Rabobank in London: AUD … wild ride in the past few weeksbetween mid-July and the start of this week, AUD/USD retraced all of the gains that it had made since late April, before showing signs of recoveryreasons for the swings are linked both to a change in expectations regarding RBA policy

The CPI from China for July is expected to tick a little higher m/m and jump y/y. At the wholesale price level the PPI is expected to remain in deflation. Not on the calendar screenshot but I expect Australian business confidence for July at 0130 GMT (9.30 pm US Eastern time). This the National Australia

Clearer lines are being drawn between the two major parties in the US presidential election. Republican nominee Trump spoke on CNBC: “I feel the president should have at least (a) say in there,” Trump said during a news conference at his Mar-a-Lago residence in Florida. “Yeah, I feel that strongly. I think that in my

Earlier this week Westpac pushed back their RBA rate cut call to February 2025, from previously in November 2024 Expects a conservative pace of 25bp cuts per quarterNew terminal rate forecast of 3.35%, up from 3.10% previouslyRBA seen as more cautious, requiring stronger evidence before easingBank cites RBA’s new analytical tools and focus on full

The European session is once again empty as we will just get the final inflation readings for Germany and Italy. Moving on to the American session, we will get the Canadian jobs report which is the only notable event for today. 12:30 GMT/08:30 ET – Canada July Labour Market report The Canadian Labour Market report

After the better showing in risk sentiment yesterday and the steadier tone earlier today, it looked like we were set for a calmer approach to European trading. That is until the last half hour or so, where US futures have turned lower and Japanese stocks also took a quick dip. It’s still early in the

Major currencies are seeing light changes for the most part, with even USD/JPY keeping under a 100 pips range for once in Asia this week. Overall, the dollar is marginally softer but the changes for the day are leaving a lot to be desired. Here’s a snapshot of dollar pairs currently: The US weekly initial

Societe Generale says it too soon to call a US recession despite the concern in markets this week over a hard landing. “The largest moves of the last week happened in Japan and Technology, suggesting that Tech valuation and carry-trade reversals are a more convincing explanation for the volatility than the rising probability of a

People’s Bank of China USD/CNY reference rate is due around 0115 GMT. The People’s Bank of China (PBOC), China’s central bank, is responsible for setting the daily midpoint of the yuan (also known as renminbi or RMB). The PBOC follows a managed floating exchange rate system that allows the value of the yuan to fluctuate

Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago President Austan Goolsbee: The Fed watches the markets, but they don’t drive policy.The question is if the job market will hold, or keep worsening. We need to see more than payrolls and more than one month.We are getting back to more normal conditions in the US economyPolicy is tightWhatever the

Richmond Fed Pres Barkin:Hearing from people, that companies are not hiring but not firingS&P index has its best day since November 2022. Happy days are here again.Mexico cuts rates by 25 basis points vs expectations of a splitThe US Treasury auctions off $25 billion of 30 year bonds at a high yield of 4.314Bitcoin is

Julius Baer analyst on the BOJ, JPY and Japnese equities. no need for the Bank of Japan to raise interest rates much more than it has doneonce markets settle 500-odd basis point interest rate differential between JPY and USD will once again be primarydo not see the yen appreciating from here The supports for Japan’s

The People’s Bank of China set the onshore yuan (CNY) reference rate for the trading session ahead. USD/CNY is the onshore yuan. Its permitted to trade plus or minus 2% from this daily reference rate.CNH is the offshore yuan. USD /CNH has no restrictions on its trading range.A significantly stronger or weaker rate than expected

Sumitomo Mitsui Trust Asset Management (SuMi TRUST) on Japanese equities – looking for a bounce back after the sharp sell-off: Japanese equity market dropped sharply in early August on weak US data and yen strengthSuMi TRUST strategist Hiroyuki Ueno sees this as temporary correctionYen appreciation driven by diverging Fed/BOJ policy expectationsUeno: Market should return to

US CPI data is due on Wednesday August 14 at 0830 US Eastern time: Via Bank of America economists, they expect that U.S. inflation in July will show a slight uptick. Nevertheless, it’ll remain supportive of a potential Fed rate cut in September. BoA notes that June’s CPI figures came in lower than anticipatedexpects some

It will be good to HEAR what Dem nominee Harris will do in a debate situation, and also what policies she will pursue. The Dem convention is coming up and that should give her a boost (as a convention normally does). However, those are largely canned speeches (unless going off the screen). How well does

The US Treasury is set to auction $25 billion in 30-year bonds today, following yesterday’s 10-year auction that saw a substantial 3.0 bp tail. Analysts at BMO suggest caution as the last four instances of a 10-year auction tailing by at least two basis points were followed by tails in the subsequent 30-year auctions. Since

Last weekend earlier this week, bad news was bad news. Today there was good news in the form of initial jobless claims ticking back to 233K from 250K last week. The expectations was for 240K. That has helped to push stocks higher as good news is good news. A snapshot of the market is showing:

The weekly US initial jobless claims report is due out today and expected to decline to 240K from 249K. Last week, claims jumped to the highest in a year but there was a skew from Hurricane Beryl that may reverse this week. If so, it could signal ongoing strength in the economy. But if claims

Once again, the European session is going to be empty on the data front and the focus will be on the American session when we will get the latest US jobless claims figures. We will also hear from Fed’s Barkin late in the day and the market will likely be attentive to comments regarding the

The U.S. Treasury will auction off $25 billion of 30 year bonds at the top of the hour. The auction results will be compared to the six month averages of the major components. Those six month averages show Tail: -0.5 basis pointsBid to cover: 2.41XDealers: 15.2%Directs: 18.4%Indirects 66.4% The high yield last month came in

High yield 4.314%WI Level at the time of the auction 4.283%Tail 3.1 basis points vs 6 month average of -0.5 basis pointsBid to cover 2.31X vs 6 month average of: 2.41XDealers 19.18% vs 6 month average of 15.2%Directs 15.5% vs 6-month average of 18.4%Indirects 65.32% vs 6-month average of 66.4% AUCTION GRADE: F Sorry it

The bad 30 year bond auction did not deter the buyers in the stocks today. There is too much momentum today. The major indices are trading to new highs: Dow industrial average is currently up in 635 points or 1.64% at 39398.23. The high Price reached 39433.52.S&P index is up 117.5 points or 2.225% at

Its heading towards 8.30am in Tokyo and USD/JPY is already on the move. Its been as low as 146….. 146.23 (but I can’t keep up!) …. nope 146.21 …. Nope …. Well, you get the idea. Get ready for another wild session: Yen & Nikkei traders alert warning – more coming from the Bank of

Fundamental Overview The surprisingly weak US NFP report last Friday triggered risk-off flows. Interestingly, while many major currencies weakened against the USD, the Euro strengthened a lot which reminded the famous words from former ECB’s President Draghi when he said “The Euro is like a Bumblebee. This is a mystery of nature because it shouldn’t

What a day Wednesday was in Japan: ForexLive Asia-Pacific FX news wrap: BOJ’s Uchida triggered a sharp yen declineThe Bank of Japan is in no mood to tangle with equity markets and it’s safe to re-enter the carry trade. We will be hearing more from the Bank of Japan today, with its ‘Summary of Opinions’

The USDCAD shifted its technical bias to the downside yesterday after re-entering the “red box” and breaking below a swing area near the top of this range (between 1.3784 and 1.3803). The “red box” largely defined the trading range from mid-April to mid-July, before the price broke higher, reaching the year’s high at 1.39458. Yesterday’s

The Atlanta Fed GDPNow growth estimate for Q3 remained unchanged at 2.9%. It is still early in the quarter but grow remains solid: In their own words: The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the third quarter of 2024 is 2.9 percent on August 8, unchanged from August 6

Bitcoin’s price surged over 8% today, marking its largest gain since March 2023. Currently trading at $59,819, up $4,666 for the day, the digital currency has experienced significant volatility over the past 10 trading days. It reached a high of $70,016 on July 29 and a low of $49,577 on Monday, a 29.19% decline over

Politico with the update: US officials say Iran may be rethinking launching a multi-pronged attack on IsraelWhile they do anticipate an Iranian response to the Haniyeh killing, think Tehran seems to have recalibratedUS does not expect an imminent attack “U.S. officials have sent messages to Tehran through various intermediaries that if the blast that killed

It is already August which means the final countdown to the Finance Magnates Pacific Summit (FMPS) is now officially underway. The biggest event in the Asia-Pacific (APAC) is slated to be held in Sydney, Australia on August 27-29, drawing the industry’s elite, as well as thousands of attendees, traders, and more. Prospective attendees can expect

The risk mood continues to improve in US markets with the S&P 500 extending gains to 1.6%. In turn, that’s helped to boost AUD/USD to the best levels of the day. The pair is now up 55 pips and threatening the weekly high and the best levels since July 24. A break higher could catalyze

Asia-Pacific (APAC) is one of the world’s fastest growing online trading markets. As it continues to grow, Asia’s trading software market is expected to hit a staggering $19.68 billion by 2031, expanding at a CAGR 7.84% between 2024 – 2031. In this context, iFX EXPO Asia 2024 presents itself as a launching board for industry

Today, European stock markets showed mixed results today: German (DAX): Closed at 17,680.41, up by 65.25 points or +0.37%).France CAC: Ended at 7,247.46, down by 18.56 points or -0.26%).UK FTSE 100: Finished at 8,144.98, decreasing by 21.91 points or -0.27%).Spain’s Ibex: Ended at 10,557.99, down by 41.02 points or -0.39%).Italy’s FTSE MIB: Finished at 31,741.92,

Prior was +0.4% (revised to +0.3%)Inventories +0.2% vs +0.2% expectedPrior inventories +0.2% This is a lower tier indicator but it’s a poor number and could sap some USD strength in a market that is very sensitive to data. This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

Prior week 249K (revised to 250K)initial jobless claims 233K versus 240K estimate. 4-week moving average of initial jobless claims 240,750 vs 238,250 last weekContinuing claims 1.875M versus 1.870M expectedPrior week continuing jobless claims 1.877M (revised to 1.869m)4-week moving average of continuing claims 1.862M vs 1.855M last week There was a decrease of 17K from the

Speech by Michele Bullock, RBAGovernor: Economic Conditions in Post-Pandemic Australia with a Regional Lens Live link here On Tuesday we got the latest decision from the RBA (on hold) and a press conference from Bullock. She, and the Board, are perceived as hawkish. Its doubtful there will be another rate hike, but a cut appears

Today’s vibrant market landscape: An overview The stock market today tells a tale of contrasting sectors with standout performances particularly noted in the pharmaceutical industry. As observed from today’s stock heatmap, while some sectors witnessed modest gains, others struggled to keep pace. Notably, Lilly (LLY) rocketed up by 13.24%, shining brightly as today’s star performer.

Fundamental Overview The market is still licking its wounds as the price action remains tentative ahead of the US Jobless Claims today. The ugly US ISM Manufacturing PMI and the weak US NFP report of last week are still fresh in everyone’s mind. At the moment the market is expecting the Fed to cut rates

The US dollar has extended further following the initial jobless claims report. The big winner is USD/JPY, which is now nearly 150 pips higher as yields rise. US 10-year yields are up 4 basis points and trading just above 4% after falling as low as 3.67% on Monday. Yesterday, the Bank of Japan retreated from

It is not a good close for the major indices today. The major indices are all closing near the lows for the day. A look at the closing levels shows: Dow industrial average fell -234.17 points or -0.60% at 38763.52S&P index fell minus 40.54 points or -0.77% at 5199.51NASDAQ index fell -171.05 points or -1.05%

Yesterday’s bitcoin slump foreshadowed trouble in the broader risk trade and that catalyzed late in the day with a drop in US equities. Today it’s the opposite. Bitcoin rallied early and has stayed strong with equities now catching up. Bitcoin is up $3570 to $58,795, or 6.7%. It’s still a long way back to the

Tickmill, the renowned multi-asset broker founded by experienced traders, has always made excellent trading conditions the main characteristic by which it wants to be recognised. Aside from trade execution and low costs, Tickmill understands that creating a safe and trusted environment for traders requires more than meeting the standards imposed by the many institutions with

The natural-gas burning parts of North America are likely to experience a colder winter if La Niña emerges. Today, US weather forecaster CPC pegged the odds of La Nina emerging in Sept-November at 66% and persisting throughout the winter. There is plenty of variability but during La Niña, the Northern United States and Southern Canada

The US dollar climbed broadly higher after initial jobless claims fell in the latest week. Claims at 233K were below the 240K expected and the one-year high of 250K last week. In response to the report, EUR/USD fell to 1.0900 from 1.0930. The drop in the pair challenges this week’s lows and I would expect

S&P 500 futures are down 0.3% while Nasdaq futures are down 0.1% currently. Meanwhile, 10-year Treasury yields are down 5.8 bps to 3.909% as traders are staying more vigilant on the session. USD/JPY is down 0.4% to 146.15 but is off session lows of around 145.65, helped by another bounce off its 100-hour moving average.

The cautious mood holds so far in European morning tradeJP Morgan raises probability of US recession by year-end to 35%, up from 25% previouslyMagnitude 7.1 earthquake hits Japan’s southern region, tsunami warnings issuedAUD/USD holds higher for now, traders watching risk sentiment for the next clueEuropean indices marked lower at the open todayWhat are the main

The USDCHF is moving higher as yields move higher after the “good news” from the US initial jobless claims this morning (down to 223K from 250K last week). The CHF is also continuing to rid itself of the flight-to-safety flows into the CHF seen over the last month of trading as concerns about global growth,

Comments from analysts at Commerzbank referring to the recent ructions in markets: Federal Reserve is unlikely to endorse expectations that it could cut interest rates more aggressively than previously anticipated at the upcoming Jackson Hole symposiumthis could boost the US dollarCommerzbank says watch U.S. inflation data next week, August 14; if its are higher than

More RBA Gov Bullock – don’t see interest rates coming down quicklyNew Zealand 2-year inflation expectations have dropped to 2.03% (prior2.3%)AUD/USD maintaining its session highs after RBA Governor Bullock hawkish againRBA Governor Bullock: Don’t expect to be back in 2-3% target range until end of 2025Japan finance minister Suzuki says no comment on BOJ Uchida’s

Reserve Bank of Australia Governor Bullock more to come This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

The initial jobless claims came in lower than expectations, and that has helped to push the US dollar higher. In the kickstart video above, I take a look at three of the major currency pairs from a technical perspective – the EURUSD, USDJPY and GBPUSD. What has been the impact from the data and what

Fundamental Overview The Yen lost some ground this week as the market stabilised after the strong rout seen on Monday. Yesterday, we saw some more weakening as BoJ’s Uchida delivered some dovish comments citing the recent volatility in the markets. That helped the global sentiment a bit, but most of the gains were erased soon

Via an interview with JPMorgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon on CNBC: still believes that the odds of a “soft landing” for the economy are around 35% to 40%making recession the most likely scenarioDimon added he was “a little bit of a skeptic” that the Federal Reserve can bring inflation down to its 2% target because

U.S. Treasury sells 10-year notes at a high yield of 3.960%BOC Minutes: Members saw risk consumers could be significantly weaker in 2025 and 2026EIA weekly US crude oil inventories -3728K vs -700K expectedMnuchin says it’s time to kill the 20-year Treasury bondUS June consumer credit outstanding +$8.93 billion vs +$10.0 billion expectedJapan top currency diplomat

Japan finance minister Suzuki: Monetary policy specifics are up to the BOJ to decideNo comments on Bank of Japan Deputy Governor Uchida’s commentsClosely watching market developmentsAim to support wage growth outpacing inflation through various policies Stock market determined by economic situations, forex, corporate activities and various othersAlgorithm trading one of various factors, not a single

Earlier from Bullock: RBA Governor Bullock: Don’t expect to be back in 2-3% target range until end of 2025 AUD/USD maintaining its session highs after RBA Governor Bullock hawkish again More now: Volatility in financial markets does effect sentiment, but not the economyBased on what board knows now, don’t see rates coming down quicklyWe do

Yesterday, it looked like we were poised for a continuation in the risk recovery. That is until a much poorer 10-year Treasuries auction landed here. Demand was soft and that was enough to trigger some reaction in broader markets. US equities turned lower and ended the day at the lows. If anything, it just highlights

I’ll get the Bank of Japan ‘Summary’ posted ASAP This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

Discover how to trade the golden cross and death cross to capture monster trends to bring your profits to the moon The post The Golden Cross And Death Cross (An Essential Guide) appeared first on TradingwithRayner.

As the North American session begins, the CHF (and AUD) is the strongest and the GBP is the weakest. The USD is also weaker to start the US session. Yields are lower on the day (but still near the high for the day) helping the negative bias. The US treasury will complete the coupon auctions

The People’s Bank of China set the onshore yuan (CNY) reference rate for the trading session ahead. USD/CNY is the onshore yuan. Its permitted to trade plus or minus 2% from this daily reference rate.CNH is the offshore yuan. USD /CNH has no restrictions on its trading range.A significantly stronger or weaker rate than expected

The pair is up 0.6% to 0.6559 but the early gains may be one that is fleeting in nature. The overall risk mood is looking rather cautious as we start European morning trade. And if there is a reason for Wall Street to sell off later, it could temper with the optimism in AUD/USD similar

Eurostoxx -0.8%Germany DAX -0.6%France CAC 40 -0.7%UK FTSE -0.9%Spain IBEX -1.0%Italy FTSE MIB -1.2% S&P 500 futures are down 0.1% with Nasdaq futures and Dow futures more flattish currently. The opening changes in Europe tells one of caution and is a bit of a catch up to the losses in Wall Street yesterday. USD/JPY is

Bullock was hawkish earlier on the week: RBA leaves cash rate unchanged at 4.35%, as expectedRBA governor Bullock: Inflation progress has been slow for a year nowRBA governor Bullock: A rate cut is not on the agenda in the near-termThe response to the RBA meeting yesterday is a 25bp rate cut priced for December 2024

There are a couple to take note of on the day, as highlighted in bold. The first ones are for EUR/USD, layered at the 1.0900 and 1.0955 levels. They aren’t significant from a technical perspective but will likely play a role in holding price action in between the recent range of 1.0900 to 1.0940 before

In summary from a Goldman Sachs note on stock market gyrations. Goldman warns stock market selloff may affect GDP growthA 5% equity drop and 21bp fall in 10-year Treasury rate could reduce GDP growth by 12bp over next yearEvery 10% stock market decline estimated to cut GDP growth by 45bpIncluding other asset moves, the total

It’s all gone wrong for risk assets in the latter half of US trading. The selling started after European equities closed but really picked up after a poor US 10-year Treasury auction. That’s boosted rates, lifted the US dollar and is weighing on the Australian dollar. It’s a disappointing turn after the rebound in risk

The firm argues that the softer conditions in the labour market may exceed expectations with early signs of a wave of layoffs. Adding that they see inflation easing further from hereon, thus expecting the Fed to cut by 50 bps in both September and November next. Mind you, the forecast of a 25% recession probability

The storm clouds are brewing again and that is keeping markets on edge as we look towards European trading. There isn’t anything on the economic calendar in the session ahead. So, the attention will turn towards more labour market data from the US in the form of the weekly initial jobless claims. The report will

Fundamental Overview Crude oil sold off pretty heavily in the latter part of last week as we got some very weak US data releases first with the ISM Manufacturing PMI and then with the NFP report. The market eventually bounced back on Monday and extended the gains yesterday with the appointment of the new Hamas

NHK is reporting that the earthquake have triggered tsunami warnings for several regions in the Japanese islands of Kyushu and Shikoku. These warnings are also extended to the Kagoshima and Ehime prefectures, with the Miyazaki prefecture the one impacted the most. The height of the tsunami is estimated to reach 1 metre. The yen reaction

German DAX futures -0.5%UK FTSE futures -0.6% That follows the stronger gains yesterday, which were before the mood music really turned sour in the US. S&P 500 futures are down 0.2% with Nasdaq futures down 0.1%. Sentiment is definitely taking on a more cautious look as we get into the session ahead. This article was

People’s Bank of China USD/CNY reference rate is due around 0115 GMT. The People’s Bank of China (PBOC), China’s central bank, is responsible for setting the daily midpoint of the yuan (also known as renminbi or RMB). The PBOC follows a managed floating exchange rate system that allows the value of the yuan to fluctuate

Claudia Sahm, she who wrote the rules, says the US is not in recession. But this risk of one is elevated. Sahm writes in Bloomberg. Bloomberg is gated, but if you can access its interesting. The gist is in the tweets screenshot below. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

Good morning, afternoon and evening all. Any charts, technical analysis, trade ideas, thoughts, views, ForexLive traders would like to share and discuss with fellow ForexLive traders, please do so: This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

With the way Japanese financial markets are swinging around I suspect the Bank of Japan Summary of Opinions will have an impact. The ‘Summary’ today is of the most recent meeting, when the Bank raised interest rates and announced a trimming of Japanese Government Bond purchases. The Bank of Japan (BOJ) releases a “Summary of

The big swings have begun already: USD/JPY is under 146.00 … its under 145.60!ES and NQ futures are dropping as nerves take hold againUS 10 year yield down to 3.9% (and change)EUR/USD has risen to retest Wednesday’s high near 1.0930AUD, NZD, CAD, GBP are all falling And its barely 8.45am in Tokyo, an hour earlier

ICYMI, Bloomberg (gated) with the report, on Swissmem (the country’s biggest lobby group for manufacturers): The Swiss National Bank must do something fast to keep the franc’s strength from hurting exporterssudden appreciation in the currency is threatening a vulnerable recovery for overseas sales seen in recent monthsdidn’t offer a view on what tools the SNB

U.S. crude oil output rose to a record high of 13.4 million bpd in the week ended August 2 that’s about 100,000 barrels per day (bpd) more than a week earlierand 800,000 barrels more than a year ago The data is from the US Energy Information Administration, published on Wednesday This article was written by

Bank of Japan Summary of Opinions at the Monetary Policy Meeting on July 30 and 31 Several members view economic activity and prices developing in line with BOJ outlookSome see room to raise “significantly low” policy rate, citing negative real rates at 25-year lowsOpinions divided on timing – some want more data, others ready to

Reserve Bank of New Zealand: 2-year Inflation Expectations Q3 2.03% prior 2.33%The two year horizon is the important one for the Reserve Bank of New Zealand, it views this as a reasonable time frame over which its policy changes impact. 1-year 2.4% NZD/USD marked lower on the data, trading around 0.5992 This article was written

We haven’t heard much from Steve Mnuchin since the Trump administration ended but the former Treasury Secretary and Hollywood financier is in the news today. He says that the US should drop the 20-year bond that he introduced. A look at the yield curve today shows why: 10 year 3.95%20 year 4.33%30-year 4.24% That kink

Prior was +11.35B (revised to +13.95B)Revolving -1.5%Non-revolving +3.4% Jamie Dimon was out today saying that credit card delinquencies were stabilizing and that he was optimistic about the consumer. This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

If you read my posts, or watch my videos on Forexlive.com, the 100 and 200 bar MAs are a key and important tool The reason is those MAs are followed by many traders from around the world. Morevoer, they look at those MAs on the hourly, the daily and even the weekly and 5-minute charts.

Suddenly, it’s not a pretty picture in global equity markets. Today’s 10-year Treasury sale was a poor one, pushing yields higher. The bond market has stabilized since but stocks are now at the lows of the day. The price action has bled into FX as well, with the Australian dollar now barely positive. The turn

Tech and health sectors dominate: Exploring today’s U.S. stock market trends Today’s market landscape showcases significant movement across various sectors with particular emphasis on technology and healthcare. Let’s explore these dynamics and provide strategic insights for investors. 🖥️ Technology Sector: A Beacon of Strength The technology sector continues to exhibit strong performance, headlined by advanced

Fundamental Overview The weak US NFP report last Friday triggered risk-off flows. Things got dire on Monday as the Japanese Nikkei dropped 12% overnight and we saw a general selloff in global stock markets. At one point, the markets saw the Fed cutting rates by 136 bps by year-end and some chances of an emergency

Last week, I highlighted comments from online furniture retailer Wayfair, where executives said that interest rates were biting hard: “Q2 was a dynamic quarter that resulted in another period of share gain, amid continued macro headwinds that are pressuring the ways customers are shopping the category. Customers remain cautious in their spending on the home,

Former NY Fed President Bill Dudley is continuing his dovish shift. Until two weeks ago, he was arguing for a higher-for-longer Fed but changed his mind late in July and called for a cut. Now, he’s continuing with that and is out with a column that says the Fed “needs to get to neutral”. “Federal

Closing changes in Europe on the day: Stoxx 600 +1.6%German DAX +1.5%Francis CAC +1.9%UK’s FTSE 100 +1.8%Spain’s IBEX +2.2%Italy’s FTSE MIB +2.4% European stocks gave a bit back late but closed near the highs. Where there is some concern at the moment is in the Nasdaq, which has pared its gain to 1.0%, which is

German DAX futures +0.8%French CAC 40 futures +0.8%UK FTSE futures +0.9% This comes with US futures also keeping in a better spot, although off earlier highs in Asia. S&P 500 futures are up 0.7%, Nasdaq futures up 0.8%, and Dow futures up 0.6% currently. For now, the market is still taking in a reprieve following

The idea of the dollar smile theory is pretty much this: But amid the unwinding of the carry trade since Friday, there is something worth noting about the dollar under these circumstances. The global selloff proved that even with risk aversion in markets, the dollar struggled for the most part. So, what gives? As the

High yield at 3.960%WI level at the time of the auction 3.929%Tail +3.1 basis points versus six month average of 0.1 basis pointsBid to Cover 2.32X vs six month average of 2.52XDealers 17.88% vs six month average of 15.5%Directs 15.9% vs six month average of 17.1%Indirects 66.2% versus six month average of 67.5% AUCTION GRADE:

Spending in 2025 and 2026 could be hit by the number of households likely to be renewing their mortgages at higher ratesSpending per person is expected to recover as rates declined but many households will still face significant debt-servicing costsAgreed to communicate that they would be weighing two-way inflation forecastsSaw less of a chance that

The major US stock indices are giving back some of their gains. Although they are still higher on the day, there has been some damage done technically. Looking at the S&P index, it opened today and moved above its 100-day moving average at 5309.32. The high price for the day reached 5330.64 but has since

As the North American session begins, the NZD is the strongest and the JPY is the weakest. The USD is mixed to mostly higher thanks to the gains in equities. The NZD and the AUD were supported by a weaker JPY and higher stocks. In New Zealand, employment came in little bit stronger than expectations

The USDCAD fell back within the gut of the “red box” that can find the pair for most of April to July. That red box came between 1.3588 and 1.3803. Yesterday the price fell back below the high of that red box and also the high of a swing area between 1.3784 and 1.3803. In

The USDCHF is seeing steady buying today as flight into that safety is unwound with gains in stock and yields moving higher. The panic for Monday is being reversed. Technically, the price is back above a swing area between 0.8549 and 0.8579. The price is also back above the 38.2% retracement of the move down

US stock market futures are pointing higher today after the Bank of Japan walked back its hawkish stance and acquiesced to the market. S&P 500 futures are up 1.1% after a disappointing final hour of trading yesterday. Two stories have my attention: 1) SMCI shares down 14% Super Micro is an AI and datacenter darling

The NZDUSD is moving higher in trading today helped by better employment vs expectations and risk on flows after the BOJ said they don’t need to tighten if markets are unstable. The move to the upside has taking the price above the 100 bar MA on the 4-hour chart, and also the 38.2% of the

Headlines: US futures pull higher as the optimism holdsUSD/JPY extends rebound, draws in key near-term levels againBOJ’s Uchida urges caution when considering timing of next rate hikeBOJ’s Uchida: Markets are still volatile so it is unclear how that will affect outlookECB’s Rehn: Recent market turmoil is an overreaction to uncertainty and thin liquidityGermany June industrial

The broader market sentiment is continuing to recover, with the optimism from yesterday holding up for now. S&P 500 futures are up 1.1% while Nasdaq futures are up 1.4% currently. In the bond market, 10-year yields in the US are up 5 bps to 3.937% at the moment. And in FX, USD/JPY is back up

The data is here: New Zealand Q2 unemployment rate 4.6% (vs. 4.7% expected) In summary, New Zealand’s unemployment rate rose to 4.6% in the April to June quarter economists had forecast a 4.7% unemployment rate And employment increased 0.4% from the prior quarter economists had forecast 0.2% contraction in employment I posted earlier that there

It is desirable for currencies to move in a stable manner reflecting fundamentalsExcessive volatility increases uncertainties, reduces predictability for businessesNo change to Japan’s economic outlook despite recent market volatilityClosely monitoring financial markets with a sense of urgency, and also calmness A 2,000 pips range in a span of a month is probably more than what

The wild swings in Japanese yen pairs are continuing today, this time triggered by remarks from BOJ deputy governor Uchida: BOJ deputy governor Uchida says the Bank’s interest rate can change if neededMore from BOJ dep Gov Uchida: Appropriate to adjust degree of monetary easing Before he spoke, USD/JPY was trading around 144.80 and now

It is not a reaction to fundamental issues with the economyIf confidence in slowing trend of inflation strengthens, rate cuts can continueThe path to inflation target is still bumpy Even so, a repeat of the Friday and Monday rout in markets risks further tightening in financial conditions and could still prompt central banks into action.

Prior was -3436KGasoline +1340K vs -986K expectedDistillates +949K vs +241K expectedRefinery utilization +0.4% vs +0.8% expectedProduction 13.4mbpd vs 13.3mbpd prior WTI crude oil was up $1.40 ahead of this data and has slightly extended its gains since. API data late yesterday showed: Crude +180KGasoline +3310KDistillates +1220K This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

The major US stock indices are opening sharply higher. at 15 minutes after the open, the major indices are showing: Dow Industrial Average average is up 307 points or 0.79% at 39302S&P index is up 75 points or 1.42% at 5315.NASDAQ index is up 309 points or 1.89% at 16666 The small-cap Russell 2000 is

Coincident index 113.7Prior 117.1 After last month’s change to the assessment of the coincident index, that view of “halting to fall” is maintained in June. That despite the drop seen on the month itself, with the leading indicator index cooling slightly after hitting its highest since August 2022 in May. This article was written by

It’s an emotion-driven market right now and bitcoin has been a good forerunner of market sentiment so I’m keeping a close eye on it. In the past 30 minutes or so, bitcoin is down $1000. Ethereum is also down 3% and has given up all of yesterday’s gains and has been a disaster since the

Yesterday, Warton Professor and frequent market commentary Jeremy Siegel was on CNBC calling for an emergency 75 basis point Fed cut followed by another 75 bps in September “at minimum” as the market worries peaked. Today, that sounds like an embarrassing overreaction to a stock market move with the Atlanta Fed Q3 GDP tracker sitting

Fundamental Overview The weak US NFP report last Friday triggered risk-off flows. Things got dire on Monday as the Japanese Nikkei dropped 12% overnight and we saw a general selloff in global stock markets. At one point, the markets saw the Fed cutting rates by 136 bps by year-end and some chances of an emergency

The US Department of Energy plans to buy 3.5 million barrels of crude for the Strategic Petroleum Reserve seeks up to 1.5 million barrels of sour crude for delivery in January 2025a second solicitation will be issued on August 12 for the purchase of about 2 million barrels, also for January 2025 deliveryannouncement comes a

Global broker HFM is excited to introduce their brand-new Refer a Friend program, designed to reward clients for sharing their trading experience with friends and family. Now, clients can earn up to $200 for every new client they refer who registers and trades with HFM! How It Works: Join the Program: Clients sign up for

It’s worth reviewing how far we’ve come in the past 10 days in the bond market. Ten-year Treasury yields were at 4.25% on July 26 before a one-way move drove them as low as 3.66% yesterday. The final leg came after a jump in the unemployment rate in the non-farm payrolls report followed by a

Sarah Hunter, Assistant Governor (Economic), and Natasha Cassidy, Deputy Head of Economic Analysis are appearing before the Australian parliament: Senate Select Committee on the Cost of Living Live link here Earlier: The response to the RBA meeting yesterday is a 25bp rate cut priced for December 2024 This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at

This is one of my favourite strips and it sums up well what has been happening to start the week: It’s all about emotions and extremes. We’ve gone from full-fledged panic and traders pricing in five rate cuts to a modest bounce yesterday. US stocks did see some selling late on but futures are pointing

The New Zealand jobs report is expected to be a poor one, with a net loss of jobs and a leap higher for the unemployment rate. The New Zealand economy has shrunk under prolonged high interest rates from the Reserve Bank of New Zealand in its battle to drive inflation lower. The pivot from the

Federal Reserve Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) comments from Nick Timiraos Most sell-side economists and other professional Fed watchers expect the Fed to cut rates by a quarter point at each of its three remaining policy meetings this year. But there’s greater skew now as a few see the likelihood of larger moves This article

Prior -2.5% Slight delay in the release by the source. Looking at the breakdown, there were increases in the production of capital goods (+2.5%), intermediate goods (+2.1%), construction (+0.3%), and energy (+2.9%). This was offset by a decline in the production of consumer goods (-2.4%). This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

In the kickstart video for August 7, I take a look at three the major currency pairs – the EURUSD, USDJPY and GBPUSD – from a technical perspective. In the EURUSD, the price action is up-and-down, with support holding against the low from yesterday and above its rising 100-hour moving average at 1.0894 and it

The AUDUSD ran higher helped by risk on flows and the fact that the RBA is still looking at potentially raising rates. However the sharp rise from the low reached on Monday on the sell off due to the Nikkei’s plunge, has the pair testing its 50% retracement, the low of a swing area and

The Bank of Japan is in no mood to tangle with equity markets and it’s safe to re-enter the carry trade. That was the message from Bank of Japan deputy governor Uchida earlier today. “We won’t hike rates when markets are unstable,” he said, adding that their interest rate path will obviously change if, as

China July exports +6.5% y/y & imports +6.5% also (in CNY terms)ANZ forecast the RBNZ to remain on hold next week, signal a rate cut later in the yearUS equity index futures screaming higher in evening tradeJapan chief cabinet secretary Hayashi says no comment on daily stock marekt movesDidn’t take much for yen to collapse:

Fundamental Overview The Russell 2000 has been on an incredible run ever since the last US CPI report. The goldilocks data was the catalyst for a strong rotation from big cap stocks into the small cap stocks, and the momentum was probably exacerbated by hedge funds facing short squeezes on their small cap hedges as

Fundamental Overview The weak US NFP report last Friday triggered risk-off flows. Things got dire on Monday as the Japanese Nikkei dropped 12% overnight and we saw a general selloff in global stock markets. At one point, the markets saw the Fed cutting rates by 136 bps by year-end and some chances of an emergency

Posting this ICYMI. Chinese state media (China Central Television ) with the info: Tesla China recalls 1.68 million cars Tesla to fix software in 1.7 mln imported model S, model X, China-made model 3, model Y vehicles under this China product recall Sounds like someone spends too much time on Twitter. This article was written

And despite all the volatility, AUD/USD is now roughly flat in August trading when accounting for the slight rise today. The pair was in a rough spot earlier on Monday as it briefly fell to its lowest since November last year. But from the daily chart, the April low held and we’re seeing a double-bottom

There is one to take note of on the day, as highlighted in bold. However, there is a major caveat attached to it. That considering it is one for USD/JPY and price action there is extremely volatile as we’re witnessing a ~350 pips range already so far today. As such, the expiries may not factor

Market index 215.1 vs 201.2 priorPurchase index 133.9 vs 132.8 priorRefinance index 661.4 vs 570.7 prior30-year mortgage rate 6.55% vs 6.82% prior The average rate of the most popular US home loan took a plunge last week after the drop in yields on Friday, alongside signals from the Fed to cut rates. The massive plunge

I’ve been closely watching bitcoin today as a barometer for sentiment and a pre-cursor to moves in equities, particularly in the Nasdaq. Earlier, we saw a jump in BTC to $57,000 and that optimism is bearing out in stocks. Big winners include some of the biggest losers yesterday, particularly chipmakers. Nvidia is up 6.7% to

Goldman Sachs Group Inc. Chief Executive Officer David Solomon in an interview:confident the US economy will avoid a recessionFederal Reserve is unlikely to implement an emergency rate cutdoes not anticipate any significant economic developments before Septembercurrent economic data and signals from the Federal Reserve suggest stabilitymay be one or two rate cuts this fall On

Prior €24.9 billion The German trade surplus narrowed in June as exports were marked down by 3.4% on the month. That is more than the 1.5% decline estimated. Meanwhile, imports were seen up 0.3% in June. This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

Prior -€7.99 billion; revised to -€7.72 billion The French trade deficit narrowed in June as exports were seen up 3.2% on the month while imports were flat. Ever since recovering from the energy price shock amid the Russia-Ukraine conflict, the trade balance has been trending at more normal levels now. Here is the trend: This

The People’s Bank of China set the onshore yuan (CNY) reference rate for the trading session ahead. USD/CNY is the onshore yuan. Its permitted to trade plus or minus 2% from this daily reference rate.CNH is the offshore yuan. USD /CNH has no restrictions on its trading range.A significantly stronger or weaker rate than expected

Eurostoxx +0.5%Germany DAX +0.6%France CAC 40 +0.4%UK FTSE +0.6%Spain IBEX +0.5%Italy FTSE MIB +0.7% The mood music is a better one today as markets are looking calmer since yesterday. US indices did see some late selling into the close but that hasn’t put too much of a dent to the overall mood. S&P 500 futures

Fundamental Overview The global market rout on Monday eventually weighed on gold. The reasons for the drop lie in the movement of real yields and liquidations due to the need of cash in extreme scenarios. In the big picture, real yields are falling, which is a good thing for gold, but in extreme cases when

There are now more factors that require being cautious, when thinking of next rate hike timingMarket volatility is very largeWill keep a close eye out on the moves and their impact on the economy, pricesThinks that stock markets will calm down at some point to reflect earnings, Japanese economyThere is no gap in views between

A strong close in US equities today would have signalled the ‘all-clear’ for risk assets. Instead, a 2.5% gain going into the final hour of trading was whittled down to 1% at the close. Closing changes: S&P 500: +1.0%Nasdaq Comp: +1.0%Russell 2000: +1.5%DJIA: +0.8%Toronto TSX Comp: -0.9% (was closed for holiday yesterday) This article was

A lot has been said about the “carry trade” liquidation that helped contribute to a -12.4% decline in the Nikkei 225 on Monday. There are some that think the unwind is just getting started. In this video, I take a look at the weekly chart of four JPY pairs – the USDJPY, GBPJPY, EURJPY and

Bank of Japan deputy governor Uchida, comments here: BOJ deputy governor Uchida says the Bank’s interest rate can change if needed USD/JPY jumping, Nikkei higher also. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

New Zealand jobs report for Q2 2024, better than expected pretty much all round. There had been some expectations of an RBNZ rate cut at their meeting next week, August 14. At the margin this takes that expectation down a notch. NZD/USD has been marked immediately higher (I’m posting separately on this). NZD/USD has been

Prior -0.2% The annual growth rate of house prices also increased further to 2.3%, which is the highest since January. The typical UK property is now seen costing £291,268. Halifax notes that they “anticipate house prices to continue a modest upward trend throughout the remainder of this year”. This article was written by Justin Low

Snippet from UBS on the BOJ and yen: USD/JPY not stabilised yetmany Japanese companies expect the average USD/JPY exchange rate to be close to 145but there is scope for significant swings stillsee 140 to 150 as the new trading rangesay that there is reluctance to build substantial positions in yen crosses right nowon the Bank

There is an expectation that the Bank’s damping could increase today – People’s Bank of China USD/CNY reference rate is due around 0115 GMT. The People’s Bank of China (PBOC), China’s central bank, is responsible for setting the daily midpoint of the yuan (also known as renminbi or RMB). The PBOC follows a managed floating

A brief summary of the Reserve Bank of New Zealand preview from ANZ, Anz expect the RBNZ to hold rates at the August 14 meeting, but signal potential cut later this year ANZ expects RBNZ to keep OCR at 5.50% next weekBank sees potential for RBNZ to signal OCR cut later in 2024Recent data points

It’s going to be another boring day on the data front as the calendar is basically empty. The mood in the markets has been slowly improving as the volatility cooled off and we haven’t got any negative catalyst in the meantime. For now, it might be the classic scenario of “no news is good news”.

US stocks finish 1% higher but sellers took over in the final hourThe Fed put workedUS treasury auctions off $58 billion of 3-year notes at a high yield of 3.810%European equity close: A modest reboundAtlanta Fed GDPNow Q3 tracker 2.9% vs 2.5% priorUS total household debt rose 0.6% in Q2 – NY FedNew Zealand GDT

If market volatility changes our view on prospects for achieving price goal, then that will influence our decision on rate hike pathHard to say how long it will take to gauge impact of market rout on economy, pricesBut BOJ has the advantage of being able to choose when to hike in a moderate rate hike

Despite the ongoing volatility in Japanese financial markets US equity index futures are on approach to their Tuesday high in evening trade. Thesecharts are from our charting app, which is free and can be found at this link This is a CFD tracking NQ: And, ES equivalent: This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at

Inbfo comes via Reuters on the introduction of Goldman Sachs’ new Financial Stress Index (FSI): tightened over the last two days remains at relatively normal levels by historical standardsmost of the tightening has come from surprisingly high levels of expected volatility in the equity and bond markets, Goldman economists said in a client noteconditions in

Ruling Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) big gun Shigeru Ishiba is viewed as a prime potential candidate for Japan’s next prime minister. He has publicly endorsed the Bank of Japan’s policy of gradually raising interest rates: Bank of Japan is on the right policy track to gradually align with a world with positive interest rates”The negative

ING on what to expect: We are looking for high single-digit to low double-digit growth for exports, and for imports to recover slightly back to positive territory after falling into contraction in June. The year-on-year numbers will benefit from a favourable base effect but overall momentum looks to be weakening with new export orders in

The New Zealand dollar benefitted earlier from the better than expected jobs report: New Zealand Q2 unemployment rate 4.6% (vs. 4.7% expected)NZD/USD marked higher after the better than expected jobs report from New Zealand The gain for the NZD has been consolidated. AUD is still eyeing the ‘hawkish’ RBA The response to the RBA meeting

Via oilprice.com: — Expectations I had seen centred on: Headline crude -0.7mn barrelsDistillates +0.2 mn bblsGasoline -1 mn — This data point is from a privately-conducted survey by the American Petroleum Institute (API): It’s a survey of oil storage facilities and companies The official report is due Wednesday morning US time. The two reports are

Data via Japan’s Ministry of Finance shows that: Japan currency intervention amounted to 5.92 tln yen on April 293.87 tln yen on May 1April 29 intervention was a single-day record, exceeding the previous record 5.62 tln yen on October 21 2022 They are in the money, finally: I recall those days when every man and

Good morning, afternoon and evening all. Any charts, technical analysis, trade ideas, thoughts, views, ForexLive traders would like to share and discuss with fellow ForexLive traders, please do so: This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

Westpac Financial Markets Strategy team on the Reserve Bank of Australia yesterday. This in brief: The RBA meeting was seen as slightly hawkish, a slower return to the inflation target, as it remains more persistent and ‘approaches’ rather than ‘hits’ the target.OIS markets, which have completely changed their risk profile in the last few weeks,

Bank of Japan deputy governor Uchida spoke: BOJ deputy governor Uchida says the Bank’s interest rate can change if neededUSD/JPY surging on Ushida speechMore from BOJ dep Gov Uchida: Appropriate to adjust degree of monetary easing The comments sound like a Bank mulling pulling back on hikes. This is pretty clear, via Bloomberg: And, if

The market is in a calmer mood once again today, looking to keep a steadier tone overall. Traders are taking a breather from the Monday rout although the air of optimism did get a bit thin for a while yesterday. But Wall Street finished stronger, despite some selling late into the close. And that’s providing

Via a Goldman Sachs note on the volatility in equities this week: Could this turn into a bear market? This, in our view remains unlikely. Ultimately most bear markets are a function of recessionary fears as it is economic contractions that lead to profits falling. While our US economists have increased their probability of recession

China trade data for July 2024 Yuan terms: Exports +6.5% y/y prior +10.7% Imports +6.5% y/y prior -0.6% Trade Balance +600bn yuan prior +703.7bn — In terms of US dollars: Trade Balance USD 84.65bn expected 99.0bn, prior 99.05bn Imports +7.2% y/y expected +3.5%, prior -2.3% Exports +7.0 y/y expected +9.7%, prior +8.6% — This article

Bank of Japan deputy governor Uchida If economy, prices move in line with projections, it is appropriate to adjust degree of monetary easing degree, speed of fx moves’ impact on prices bigger than in past weak yen and subsequent rise in import costs pose upside risks to inflationShort-term interest rate, at 0.25%, is still very

Japan chief cabinet secretary Hayashi is probably eyeing the impact of Uchida’s loose lips: Didn’t take much for yen to collapse: BOJ official says won’t raise rates if mkt unstableBOJ deputy governor Uchida says the Bank’s interest rate can change if neededUSD/JPY surging on Ushida speechMore from BOJ dep Gov Uchida: Appropriate to adjust degree

Comments from chief investment officer of HSBC’s private bank conveyed via a Reuters report ICYMI: In technology, the froth has been removed from the valuationsWe do believe that AI and technological innovation more broadly will endure, will continue to create productivity gains… We don’t flee from itThere are opportunities in technology, and technology is not

Bank of Japan deputy governor Uchida Our interest rate path will obviously change if, as a result of market volatility, our economic forecasts, view on risks and likelihood of achieving our projection changeJapan is not in an environment where we would be behind the curve unless we hike rates at set paceWe won’t hike rates

A dour view from Greenlight Capital’s David Einhorn in a note to investors: From a market perspective, we don’t think it matters very much who wins “The economic policies of both parties are remarkably similar. Both favour large deficits despite a strong economy. We believe this supports our ongoing expectations of higher secular inflation in

USD/CAD is down 130 pips from yesterday’s high. More importantly, it’s back below the tops of the long-term range in what could be another rejection of the long-term tops just below 1.40. Zooming out to the weekly chart shows the importance of resistance in the 1.39-1.40 range as that’s blocked the path of this pair

The S&P index is trading near highs up 115 points or 2.23% at 5301.95. The high price reached 5303.17 so far. That gets the price within 5.6 points of its key 100-day moving average. That moving average level comes in at 5308.75. The price last Friday bottomed near that level and bounced into the close.