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Rate cuts by year-end Fed: 75 bps (53% probability of 50 bps rate cut at the upcoming meeting) 2025: 193 bps ECB: 50 bps (96% probability of rate cut at the upcoming meeting) 2025: 175 bps BoE: 38 bps (88% probability of rate cut at the upcoming meeting) 2025: 155 bps BoC: 75 bps (51% […]

Headlines: EUR/USD runs up to test the 1.1200 mark againChinese stocks stay hot ahead of the holiday breakWeekly update on interest rate expectationsSNB data shows Swiss central bank was hardly active in FX markets in Q2SNB total sight deposits w.e. 27 September CHF 472.2 bn vs CHF 465.3 bn priorGermany August import price index -0.4%

Kickstart the FX trading day with a technical look at the major currency pairs – the EURUSD, USDJPY and GBPUSD. The EURUSD has been trading up and down over the last few trading days. What is somewhat unique to today’s price action, is that the price is trying to stay above its 100 hour moving

Prior was -9.7Output (production) -3.2 vs +1.6 priorNew orders -5.2 vs -4.2 priorEmployment +2.9 vs -0.7 priorOutlook -6.4 vs -9.6 priorPrices paid for raw materials +18.2 vs +28.2 priorPrices received +8.4 vs +8.5 priorWages +18.5 vs +22.0 prior This is a neutral reading overall. There are some positive indications on the outlook and inflation but

The Japanese political situation has been high drama in the past week. On Friday, Japan’s LDP opted not to pick a dovish leader of their party, causing a big drop in USD/JPY. That was followed by a snap-election call from incoming PM Ishiba. The vote will take place on October 27 as he tries to

Prior +0.7%GDP +0.7% vs +0.9% y/y prelimPrior +0.3% It’s a slight revision lower with the quarterly breakdown as per the following compared to the preliminary estimate: Household consumption +0.11% (previously +0.12%)Government consumption +0.23% (previously +0.30%)Gross fixed capital formation +0.10% (previously +0.08%)Gross capital formation: other +2.25% (previously +2.30%)Net trade -2.20% (unchanged) This article was written by

Fed’s Bowman and Powell will both speak on Monday. Let the 25 vs. 50 battle (re) commence!US politics – US Vice President Harris raises $55 million in California fundraisersChinese stocks continue to surgeBank of England Monetary Policy Committee member Greene speaks on Monday, late NY timeJapan chief cabinet secretary Hayashi says no comment on daily

Prior +1.1%HICP +0.8% vs +1.0% y/y expectedPrior +1.2% Slight delay in the release by the source. This matches up with the softer headline figures from France and Spain last week. Then again, Italian headline inflation has been on the lower side for a while now. Nonetheless, it still reaffirms the latest calls for the ECB

Gold is a laggard today, falling $27 to $2630. It’s only a 1% drop and comes after a massive rally but it’s worth considering gold right now in light of what’s happening in China. I’ve made this point a couple times in the past week or so: China has been the big buyer of gold

Oil has been ratcheting up today but it’s not clear if that’s China or war worries, though it’s certainly not hurting crude. Just now Hezbollah also claimed an attack on Israel using a ballistic missile for the first time. It’s a ‘nour missile’. This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

CNN reports that Israel could imminently launch a ground incursion into Lebanon. However the report says that following discussions with the US, the incursion could be more-limited than what Israel initially planned. I would take this all with a grain of salt as many of these headlines have proven false in the past and very

Will increase loan placement for ‘white list’ projects, met reasonable financing needs of real estate projects This isn’t much but it’s another note highlighting that China is trying to turn on the growth taps. It’s another excuse to look at the insane chart of the Shanghai Composite, which rose another 8% today. This article was

The USDCHF moved down on Friday and once again moved closer to the low of the up and down swing area that has confined most of the trading going back to around August 20. The low for that swing area comes in near 0.8400, and on Friday and again today, that area was tested and

Note, New Zealand switched to daylight saving time over the weekend as summer approaches. Speaking of New Zealand, there is the ANZ New Zealand Business Survey for September 2024 due today. The August data improved from July but was still awful: New Zealand business confidence in August -47.8% vs. prior -56.7% But, the focus will

As the NA session begins, the EUR is the strongest and the CHF is the weakest. The USD is mixed to start the new trading week. Last week, was filled with China stimulus announcements from both a fiscal and monetary policy. The stock market soared in response with the Shanghai composite index rising 12.81%. The

This just confirms the date as previously reported from quite a number of media outlets earlier in Asia trading. Ishiba will be sworn in as prime minister tomorrow and is expected to revamp the Cabinet positions ahead of the snap election. Yoshimasa Hayashi is expected to stay on as chief Cabinet secretary while Katsunobu Kato

The data shows that they have clearly moved away from having to sell foreign currencies in 2023 to manage imported inflation. Now that they’re over the hill, it’s time to focus on the other side. They recently changed their thoughts on the franc back in August, saying that it is becoming a “problem” – especially

🔥 Chinese stocks are sizzling and it has been a while since we’ve seen such an upturn in sentiment in the region. After the over 15% gains last week, the CSI 300 index is up over 6% now at the lunch break. As seen with the chart above, the run higher already broke the downtrend

ChiNext is up 11% Beijing 50 i sup 14% Shanghai Composite +4% Hong Kong’s Hang Seng +1% A blistering day of rallies in China. Stimulus efforts were rolled about last week, and continued over the weekend: More stimulus from China over the weekend – banks instructed to cut mortgage rates Earlier today we had disappointing

Eurostoxx -0.3%Germany DAX -0.2%France CAC 40 -0.5%UK FTSE -0.1%Spain IBEX -0.1%Italy FTSE MIB -0.7% This comes with US futures showing a more muted tone today, keeping flattish at the moment. It’s been another good month for European indices, having clawed their way back after the early August blip. But with month-end and quarter-end in focus

Wake me up when September.. oh, it’s already ending. The month has certainly flew by. So far today, the dollar is keeping steadier for the most part. The yen remains volatile with USD/JPY up earlier in Asia to 142.95 but is now near unchanged levels on the day. Instead, it is the antipodeans which are

Info comes via a (gated) Bloomberg report. It reports that the Shanghai Stock Exchange conducted weekend stress tests, requesting brokerages take part in these tests after its systems faced difficulties handling a surge in trading activity on Friday. Weekend simulations included processing 270 million transactions according to a statement from the exchange. This is twice

The major US stock indices are trading mixed to start the weekend and the third quarter. The snapshot of the market 10 minutes into the open is showing: Dow industrial average -194.71 points or -0.46% at 14 118129S&P index -4.54 points or -0.08% at 5733.63NASDAQ index +27.93 points or 0.15% at 18147.52 The small-cap Russell

China National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) data September PMIs Manufacturing 49.8 expected 49.5, prior 49.1 Non manufacturing 50.0 expected 50.4, prior 50.3 The focus on this data point today is low, its all about stimulus from China now. Its been ramped up and announcements continued over the weekend: More stimulus from China over the weekend

Today’s stock market heatmap reveals a dynamic landscape, with notable shifts across key sectors. Despite some pressures, distinct trends are emerging that could shape investment strategies. 📊 Sector Overview Technology: This sector presents a mixed bag. Apple (AAPL) stands out with a gain of 1.44%, buoying investor confidence in consumer electronics. However, semiconductor stocks like

Any attempt to enlarge and strength banks is welcome, bearing in mind liabilitiesCross border mergers have a lot of benefits but aren’t without risksIt’s up to undertakers of mergers to decide if they are worth it Nothing big here and the euro is flat on the day. More: We are not going to wait until

Info comes via a Bloomberg report: Kamala Harris raised about $55 million in high-dollar events in California this weekendfundraiser on Sunday took in about $28 millionSaturday’s about $27 millionHarris began September with $404 million in the bank, compared to $295 million for TrumpHarris campaign spent an average of $7.5 million a day in August, compared

Latest developments strengthen our confidence that inflation will return to target in a timely manner, we will take that into account at meeting in OctoberEmployment growth slowed to just 0.2% in the second quarter and recent indicators point to a further deceleration in the coming quartersThe labor market remains resilientWe expect the recovery to strengthen

A note from Rabobank argues that Sterling might continue to outperform the euro in coming months Cites due to the Bank of England’s cautious approach to cutting interest rates. Rabo adds that October could prove a rocky month for both currencies U.K. budget on October 30 could present a hurdle for sterling as the prospect

Credit growth steady on the month both m/m and y/y. Business credit expanding nicely. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

China PMIs from the private survey Manufacturing Services Composite more to come Earlier: China official PMI data: Manufacturing 49.8 (expected 49.5) — — China has two primary Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) surveys – the official PMI released by the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) and the Caixin China PMI published by the media company Caixin

Americans are cleaning up from Hurricane Helene and it looks like it will be a long rebuilding effort in some parts of the country. The respite might be short for hurricane watchers as a late-starting hurricane season looks like it stay busy. There are a couple of harmless storms turning north in the mid-atlantic but

Prior +1.9%HICP +1.8% vs +1.9% y/y expectedPrior +2.0% The softer headline figure was more or less expected after the state readings earlier here. Core annual inflation is expected to come in at 2.7% though, just marginally lower than the 2.8% reading in August. So, there is still more work to be done there to convince

Fundamental Overview Last week, the PBoC announced lots of easing measures ranging from short to long term interest rates cuts. Copper rallied strongly as China makes up for more than 50% of copper demand. Things are starting to look better for the market as we have also the Fed cutting rates into a resilient economy.

There aren’t any major expiries to take note of on the day. But just be wary that trading sentiment could be impacted by month-end and quarter-end flows later, especially when we get closer towards the London fix. That might make for a bit of a trickier time in reading into price action on a day

The data is here from earlier: Japan data – August Industrial production -3.3% m/m (expected -0.9%)Japan August Retail Sales 2.8% y/y (expected 2.3%) A Japanese government says output will get better aehaed: Fall in motor vehicle production contributed to the decline in AugustChip-making equipment output also decreased due to weaker overseas demandChip-making machinery exports to

The People’s Bank of China set the onshore yuan (CNY) reference rate for the trading session ahead. USD/CNY is the onshore yuan. Its permitted to trade plus or minus 2% from this daily reference rate.CNH is the offshore yuan. USD /CNH has no restrictions on its trading range.A significantly stronger or weaker rate than expected

Domestic sight deposits CHF 463.6 bn vs CHF 457.2 bn prior Swiss sight deposits jumped in the past week, with the total levels rising back up to its highest since early May. That might be indicative of the SNB stepping in a little to intervene with the franc’s strength in the past week. This article

As is usual for a Monday morning, market liquidity is very thin until it improves as more Asian centres come online … prices are liable to swing around, so take care out there. Indicative rates, not a lot changed from late Friday levels: EUR/USD 1.1165USD/JPY 142.16GBP/USD 1.3372USD/CHF 0.8415USD/CAD 1.3515AUD/USD 0.6908NZD/USD 0.6339 This article was written

Fundamental Overview In the latter part of last week, crude oil sold off without a clear catalyst. Some people have been citing the FT piece about Saudi Arabia being ready to abandon the $100 target but as Amena Bakr, senior research analyst at Energy Intelligence said, there was never a target and such a high

The euro is sitting higher on the day, with EUR/USD seen up 0.3% to clip the 1.1200 mark. Even EUR/CHF is also driven higher, up 0.6%T to 0.9445 currently. But circling back to EUR/USD, the pair is once again testing key daily resistance at the figure level as buyers are hoping for a breakthrough this

2010 GMT / 1610 US Eastern time Bank of England Monetary Policy Committee member Megan Greene speaks as part of a panel discussiontopic is perspectives on global monetary policyvenue is the NABE economics conference in Nashville Greene spoke last week: BOE’s Greene: Appropriate to take a gradual approach to removing policy restrictiveness Bank of England

Japanese industrial output for August 2024 – — Earlier re Japan: Talk of a Japanese election October 27 This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

Prior 61.99k; revised to 62.50kNet consumer credit £1.3 billion vs £1.4 billion expectedPrior £1.2 billion Mortgage approvals rose in August, moving up to its highest level since August 2022 – largely driven by a surge in purchase activity. On net, individuals borrowed £2.9 billion of mortgage debt in August, compared to £2.8 billion in July.

The yen rocketed higher on Friday on political news: Japanese yen sureges as Ishiba wins PM contest When I say rocketed, I am not exagerrating. USD/JPY was above 146.00 and ended Frdiay down near 142.00. We’ve had a bit of a rebound/retracement in early Monday trade. News and data: Japan data – August Industrial production

Good morning, afternoon and evening all. Any charts, technical analysis, trade ideas, thoughts, views, ForexLive traders would like to share and discuss with fellow ForexLive traders, please do so: This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

Fundamental Overview Gold has been on a sustained rally ever since the last Fed’s decision as real yields fell further due to inflation expectations rising faster than nominal yields. More recently, real yields pulled back a bit, while gold continued to print new highs. The new driver could be China as last week they started

On Monday, the U.K. will release its final GDP q/q data, while Switzerland will publish the KOF economic barometer. In the U.S., Fed Chair Jerome Powell will participate in a discussion titled “A View from the Federal Reserve Board” at the National Association for Business Economics Annual Meeting in Nashville. Although audience questions are expected,

Brandenburg CPI +1.4% vs +1.7% y/y priorNorth Rhine Westphalia CPI +1.5% vs +1.7% y/y priorSaxony CPI +2.4% vs +2.6% y/y priorBaden Wuerttemberg CPI +1.4% vs +1.5% y/y prior The state figures point to softer yearly figures compared to the month before. Based on the estimates, we should see the German national number come in later

ANZ Business Outlook survey September 2024 Business Confidence 60.9% prior 50.6% Activity 45.3% prior 37.1% ANZ comment: first signs of improvement in current activityA sharper rebound in economic activity than generally anticipated would of course be great news – as long as inflation still returns sustainably to target. The proportion of firms intending to raise

Prior -0.2% In annual terms, house prices grew by 3.2% year-on-year and that’s the fastest growth in two years. The average price of a typical dwelling in the UK is at £266,094 as of the month. Nationwide notes that: “Income growth has continued to outstrip house price growth in recent months while borrowing costs have

1250 GMT / 0850 US Eastern time: Federal Reserve Board Governor Michelle Bowman discusses the economic outlook and monetary policy before the Georgia Bankers Association President/CEO Conference Bowman dissented at the most recent Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting. In favour of a 25bp rate cut vs. the 50bp that was passed. Bowman spoke last

Rachel Reeves is the UK government’s Chancellor of the Exchequer. She’ll be attending a meeting of European Union finance ministers according to the Financial Times: Reeves is on record as pushing for an ambitious deal to reduce trade barriers with the EU. FT is gated. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

Japan election October 27 rumoured, NHK. Japan’s NKH, Japan Broadcasting Corporation (also known as NHK) is a Japanese public broadcaster. Reporting the new Prime Minister is planning a general election for October 27. Shigeru Ishiba was elected ruling party (LDP) leader and soon-to-be prime minister on Friday. Rep[orts are he has decided to hold a

People’s Bank of China USD/CNY reference rate is due around 0115 GMT. The People’s Bank of China (PBOC), China’s central bank, is responsible for setting the daily midpoint of the yuan (also known as renminbi or RMB). The PBOC follows a managed floating exchange rate system that allows the value of the yuan to fluctuate

German DAX futures -0.3%French CAC 40 futures +0.1%UK FTSE futures flat This comes with US futures also showing a more muted tone. S&P 500 futures are down marginally by just 0.1% on the day. Just be mindful that we could be dealing with month-end and quarter-end shenanigans later. And that could factor into the flows

Reuters carried the report over the weekend: Taiwan’s Defence Ministry said on Sunday it was on alert after missiles firing deep in inland Chinadetected “multiple waves of firing” by China’s Rocket Force and army in the provinces and regions of Inner Mongolia, Gansu, Qinghai and Xinjiang, which all lie at least 2,000 km (1,200 miles)

The 2024 class of university graduates in China is the largest ever, at 11.8mn. They are entering a labour market showing record youth unemployment. Media reports, in summary, outline the cornering situation facing the oldies clinging on to power in the Politburo. Youth unemployment (16-24) hit 18.8% in August, near all-time highLess than 30% of

Hayashi: No comment on daily share movesContinue to monitor economic and financial situation in Japan and overseas with sense of urgencyContinue to work closely with BOJ Chinese shares are having another strong day as stimulus measures are assessed and new ones get rolled out, the lates being over the weekend – lower mortgage rates and

Mark Zandi is Chief Economist at Moody’s Analytics. He’s posted over the weekend a glowing review of the US economy. I reckon there is a big warning in this … but first, he is what he said (in brief): with last week’s big GDP revisions, there is no denying it: This is among the best

In May the Australian Treasury forecast a budget suplus of A$9.8bn. The final outcome though is way above, at A$15.8bn, which is more than A$6bn better than forecast. Revenue dropped but spending was slashed. It’s the first consecutive year surplus in nearly 20 years. Strong commodity prices were a solid contributing factor. At the margin,

Kristofferson wrote many hits in the 1970s. RIP. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

New Zealand moved clocks forward an hour to switch to daylight saving time as summer approaches. If you are trading markets in NZ, a heads up. As an early alert, parts of Australia will switch to daylight saving time on the coming weekend, October 6. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

On Sunday the People’s Bank of China announced it’d be instructing banks to lower mortgage rates for existing home loans before October 31. The PBOC said banks should reduce interest rates on existing mortgages to no less than 30 basis points (bps) below the Loan Prime Rate (LPR) The 5-year Loan Prime Rate (LPR) was

Mon: Chinese NBS & Composite PMIs (Sep), Caixin PMIs (Sep), Japanese Retail Sales (Aug), German Retail Sales (Jun), UK GDP (Q2), Swiss KOF (Sep), German Flash CPI (Sep), UK Mortgage Approvals/Lending (Aug), US Dallas Fed Index (Sep), New Zealand NZIER (Q3) ; Canada Holiday.Tue: Riksbank Minutes, EZ/UK/US Final Manufacturing PMI (Sep), EZ Flash CPI (Sep),

An exit poll following Sunday’s vote by broadcaster ORF showed Austria’s Freedom Party leading with 29.1% compared to 26.2% for Chancellor Karl Nehammer’s Austrian People’s Party and 20.4% for the centre-left Social Democrats. Herbert Kickl, head of the Freedom Party may struggle to put together a governing coalition. Ahead of the vote, the Freedom Party

UPCOMING EVENTS: Monday: Japan Industrial Production and Retail Sales, Chinese PMIs, German CPI, Fed Chair Powell. (Canada on Holiday)Tuesday: Japan Unemployment Rate, BoJ Summary of Opinions, Australia Retail Sales, Swiss Retail Sales, Swiss Manufacturing PMI, Eurozone Flash CPI, Canada Manufacturing PMI, US ISM Manufacturing PMI, US Job Openings. (China on Holiday)Wednesday: Japan Tankan Index, Eurozone

There will be previews of the week ahead soon to come but the big two events next week are: Federal Reserve Chair Powell discussing the US economic outlook at a National Association for Business Economics conference on Monday. This is at 1300 US Eastern time on Monday, September 30 (1700 GMT).On Friday, October 4, at

BofA recommends selling short gold against silver at a ratio of 83.50, with a target of 78.50/75.00 and a stop at 87.50. Key Points: Gold: The 2024 price targets of 2368, 2538, and 2643 have already been achieved, with the next target at approximately 2733. However, BofA advises against chasing gold at this time due

US August core PCE +0.1% vs +0.2% expectedCanada GDP for July 0.2% versus 0.1% expectedUS Advanced goods trade balance for August $-94.26 billion vs. -100.60B estimateUS September UMich final consumer sentiment 70.1 vs 69.3 expectedUS wholesale inventories advanced for August 0.2% versus 0.3%Baker Hughes US oil rig count 484 vs 488 priorMusalem: Fed should cut

Closing changes in North American equities: S&P 500 -0.1%Nasdaq Comp -0.4%DJIA +0.3%Russell 2000 +0.7%Toronto TSX Comp -0.3% On the week: S&P 500 +0.6%Nasdaq Comp +1.0%DJIA +0.6% US stocks had a strong start and liked the PCE report but the bombing in Beirut along with quarter-end flows added some caution. Nvidia was also weak on a

Iran’s supreme leader, Ayatollah Khamenei, is holding an emergency meeting of the Supreme National Security Council at his home compound, in response to Israel’s strike in Beirut that targeted the leader of Hezbollah, Hassan Nasrallah. The latest reports suggest Nasrallah was killed but there have been many conflicting reports for hours. The market seemingly isn’t

The FT interviewed St Louis Fed President Alberto Musalem and he said that future cuts should come gradually but that if there’s further weakness, a faster pace could be appropriate. That’s hardly a departure from Powell. This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

Reuters reports: The US government is “studying very closely” the possibility of additional sanctions on individuals as well as the potential revocation of licenses for oil companies working in Venezuela, a senior official said on Friday. This isn’t a big surprise but it could reverse some of the recent progress in bringing back oil supply

This is all so far from Bowman. I’ll monitor for anything that could be potentially market moving. This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

Bloomberg is out with a report saying China is ramping up pressure on domestic companies to use domestic chip products rather than Nvidia chips. Shares of Nvidia are down 3.5% and at a session low and weighing on the broader market. The Nasdaq is now down 0.6%. The thing is, this exact same story was

The GDP tracker from the Atlanta Fed is rising after today’s round of data. It’s up to 3.1% from 2.9%. After recent releases from the US Census Bureau, the US Bureau of Economic Analysis, and the National Association of Realtors, a decline in the nowcast of real personal consumption expenditures growth was more than offset

Sector Overview Today’s stock market heatmap reveals a diverse landscape of sector performances. Notably, the healthcare sector is struggling, with Eli Lilly (LLY) leading the drop at -2.29%. Meanwhile, technology and industrials show promising resilience, counterbalancing the broader market’s mixed signals. Semiconductors: Both Nvidia (NVDA) and Broadcom (AVGO) faced losses, down 0.77% and 0.81% respectively,

Prior month 0.0%Real GDP increased by 0.2% in July, following no change in June.Services-producing industries grew 0.2%, led by retail trade, public sector, and finance and insurance.Goods-producing industries edged up 0.1%, with utilities and manufacturing driving growth.13 of 20 sectors expanded in July, despite negative impacts from wildfires on transportation, warehousing, and accommodation services. For

Oil rigs 484 vs 488 priorNatural gas rigs 99 vs 96 prior A bit of life in natural gas and they fire up the rigs. This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

Prior 2kUnemployment rate 6.0% vs 6.0% expectedPrior 6.0% German unemployment rose by a little more than expected in September, with the total figure seen at 2.82 million after adjusting for seasonal patterns. The jobless rate remained stable at 6.0% at least. This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

Jamie McGeever at Reuters is out with a good column on the conundrum for China as it looks to stimulate the economy. He highlights that the moves could spark a rally in the yuan and that USD/CNY could also fall as the US stimulates. He cites Stephen Jen — who is a great FX analyst

The top three candidates are former defence minister Shigeru Ishiba, ex-environment minister Shinjiro Koizumi, and economic security minister Sanae Takaichi. They are expected to come out ahead but there might not be a clear winner with a majority. As such, a run-off is a distinct possibility. If so, the results will be delayed further due

When Takaichi won the first round of votes, it led USD/JPY to leg up higher to above 146.00. But in the head-to-head vote against Ishiba, she lost out and that’s resulting in a massive turnaround in USD/JPY now. The pair has tumbled from around 146.20 to 143.80 levels currently. Takaichi was the most vocal among

Closing changes on the day: Stoxx 600 +0.5%German DAX +1.3%Francis CAC +0.8%UK’s FTSE 100 +0.5%Spain’s IBEX +0.3%Italy’s FTSE MIB +0.9% Closing changes on the week: Stoxx 600 +2.7%German DAX +4.0%Francis CAC +4.0%UK’s FTSE 100 +1.1%Spain’s IBEX +2.0%Italy’s FTSE MIB +2.9% What’s not to like about this chart? European stocks have a lot of leverage to

Prelim was 69.0Prior was 67.9Current conditions 63.3 vs 62.9 prelim (61.3 prior)Expectations 74.4 vs 73.0 prelim (72.1 prior)1-year inflation 2.7% vs 2.7% prelim5-year inflation 3.1% vs 3.1% prelim The final revisions are rarely a market mover but the chart illustrates how this is a different picture than consumer confidence, which is nearing a breakdown. A

Latitude Media today talked to Peter Freed, Meta’s former director of energy strategy (he left in April) and he talked about the massive amount of energy that’s going to be needed for data centers. That’s on top of green transition energy and chronic under-investment in the grid. “Most of the data center announcements that have

Eurostoxx +0.2%Germany DAX +0.2%France CAC 40 +0.4%UK FTSE +0.2%Spain IBEX flatItaly FTSE MIB +0.3% European indices can take comfort from the softer inflation readings from France and Spain. But the overall market mood is more tentative, with US futures sitting 0.1% lower currently. In FX, the dollar is keeping just a little higher across the

They had previously penciled in a 25 bps rate cut for December instead. So, they’re changing to October now. BNP and HSBC are the other two names on the list but I’d expect the rest of the houses to change up their calls in the next week or so as well. From earlier: BNP Paribas

The Australian dollar is at the highest levels since February 2023 as part of a broad selloff in the US dollar following softer US inflation data and China cutting lending rates. The definitive break above 0.6900 in AUD/USD cracks the June 2023 high and a series of highs in that range. It’s accelerated higher since.

Reported heavy strikes in Beirut have put a risk-off mood into markets and the S&P 500 has hit a session low, falling into slightly negative territory. The market doesn’t like war but it has mostly ignored the latest Middle East drama. This strike was said to target top Hezbollah leadership though, so if there was

The JPY is the strongest and the GBP is the weakest as the NA session begins. The USD is mixed to modestly lower mainly because of the -1.02 decline in the JPY. The other changes vs the major currencies are showing modest changes on the day with the USD higher vs the EUR, GBP, CAD,

Headlines: Japanese yen surges as Ishiba wins leadership race to become next Japan prime ministerShigeru Ishiba wins LDP leadership race run-off, will be Japan’s next prime ministerWeekly update on interest rate expectationsBNP Paribas revises call and sees the ECB cutting rates in October nowGoldman Sachs the latest to change their call on the ECB, now

The Primary Target of the latest Israeli Airstrike on Beirut is said to be Hezbollah leader, Hassan Nasrallah. The HQ is said to be located beneath residential buildings. Israel Defense Forces spokesperson Daniel Hagari said: “Moments ago, the Israel Defense Forces carried out a precise strike on the central headquarters of the Hezbollah terror organization

The AUDUSD and NZDUSD are trading it to new highs. For the AUDUSD, it is breaking to the highest level since February 2023.For the NZDU it is trading to the highest level of the year but his just short of the end of December high at 0.63684. For the USDCAD, it has traded mostly between

The USDCHF is moved lower on the back of the PCE data today and that move has now taken the price of the USDCHF to 0.8400 target. Remember, that area is a low of an up-and-down trading range that has confined the pair going back to August 20. The high of the area comes in

The PBOC continues to deliver on easing. The SLF cuts are to the overnight, seven-day and one-month facility to 2.35%, 2.50% and 2.85%, respectively. Between this and the PCE report, risk assets are jumping. This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

Aims to accelerate incumbent prime minister Kishida’s new capitalism pledgeWill consider appropriate timing for lower house electionRevitalising consumption is key for Japan to emerge from deflationary spiralMust scrutinise what will be the most effective step to cushion blow from rising inflationThere is a time lag for wage growth to exceed inflation He hasn’t been too

The WSJ’s Nick Timiraos gets a bit into the weeds today in a column that highlights how borrowers might be reluctant to tap lower rates. That could make it more difficult for the Fed to generate an uplift in economic activity or stall the rise in unemployment. For me, the most important part of the

The yen is higher today after Ishiba beat out a dovish rival to win the top job at the LDP. Says BOJ should decide monetary policyAccommodative monetary policy won’t changeWill not make any requests to the BOJ on monetary policy USD/JPY has ticked higher on these comments but only modestly This article was written by

United Overseas Bank (UOB) in Singapore are maintaining a ‘base case’ forecast for the Reserve Bank of Australia to cut its cash rate by 25bp at its next meeting, on November 5. OUB say the cut is a “close call’ and “very much dependent on upcoming data releases” ahead of the meeting date: labour market

A US security official is saying that the US approach to finding a diplomatic solution to the Israeli/Hezbollah conflict no longer has a chance of success at least for now. Earlier Israel’s PM Netanyahu said that Israel is forced to defend itself on war front organized by Iran. He stated that “If you strike us,we

A snippet from UBS on Pacific Rim central banks: Fed’s easing cycle is just getting started, UBS see another 50 bp of cuts this year and 100 in 2025Bank of Japan to raise short term rates by 25 basis points by the middle of 2025see the most aggressive easing moves from the Reserve Bank of

The rates market is evenly-divided on whether the Bank of Canada will cut by 50 or 25 basis points on October 23. Today’s GDP report was slightly better than forecast at +0.2% versus +0.1% expected but the advance August reading was flat. That has RBC estimating Q3 GDP at 1.0% annualized, well below the Bank

The headline reading is the highest since May, so that’s a welcome rebound in retail sales balance. At the same time, expected retail sales for October also moved higher to 5 and that is up from -17 in September. It is the highest reading for the expectations balance since April 2023. That’s a positive signal

Good morning, afternoon and evening all. Any charts, technical analysis, trade ideas, thoughts, views, ForexLive traders would like to share and discuss with fellow ForexLive traders, please do so: This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

The US PCE data was better than expected but the market is having trouble rallying hard. Is it a movement out of the US into China. Europe and strong gains this week as well. Is it sell the news? Having said that, the S&P and Dow indices are trading at new all-time highs. They just

The US PCE data was lower than expectations and it helped to push the USD lower. For the EURUSD, the price has moved above a swing area between 1.1181 and 1.11897. The next targets are at 1.1200 and the high for the week at 1.12130. Getting above those levels will have traders targeting the 61.8%

The Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) data is a key measure of inflation that tracks changes in the prices of goods and services purchased by consumers. It is reported monthly by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) and is a critical tool used by the Federal Reserve to assess inflation and guide monetary policy. You can

The main focus this week has been on China and the dollar fell yesterday as risk trades legged higher. The greenback is keeping steadier today but it really has been a bit of a push and pull week for the dollar. USD/JPY is extending higher though, climbing above 145.00 as we await the results of

Since July of this year, the oil market has struggled to regain momentum. It has even reached a point where the price of WTI crude oil fell below $68, a level we have not seen since March 2023. Meanwhile, the S&P 500, Dow Jones, and XAUUSD have all experienced a remarkable upward surge. It didn’t

Prior +2.3%HICP +1.7% vs +1.9% y/y expectedPrior +2.4% This adds to the French data from earlier and reaffirms softer price pressures towards the end of Q3. Core inflation is also seen easing further to 2.4%, so that’s another positive development. And all of this just rebuffs expectations that the ECB might indeed cut rates by

Fundamental Overview The USD remains under pressure amid the aggressive market pricing for rate cuts and better global growth expectations following the recent huge Chinese easing measures. It’s now a battle between global growth supporting the risk sentiment and weighing on the greenback and the aggressive rates pricing which could be scaled back if the

Barclays is out with a note forecasting the ECB to cut by 25 basis points on October 17. They’re behind the curve on that one as the market shifted dramatically in the past two weeks and is now pricing in a 94% chance of a cut. That’s despite what prior ECB hints had been. Barclays

Prior month -102.6BInternational trade deficit in August: $94.3 billion (down $8.6 billion from July’s $102.8 billion)August exports of goods: $177.0 billion (up $4.1 billion from July)August imports of goods: $271.3 billion (down $4.5 billion from July) Less trade balance which is good. Looking at the mix of exports and imports, they are also mixed with

Prior month 0.3%Wholesale inventories for August 2024 were $905.7 billion, up 0.2% from July 2024 and up 0.7% from August 2023.The June to July 2024 wholesale inventories change was revised from 0.2% to 0.3%.Retail inventories for August 2024 were $816.0 billion, up 0.5% from July 2024 and up 6.3% from August 2023.The June to July

There is just one to take note of on the day, as highlighted in bold. That being for USD/CAD at the 1.3500 level. It isn’t one that ties to a technical level, so it isn’t too significant. But if anything else, it could just draw and keep a lid on price action until we get

Prior +1.8%HICP +1.5% vs +2.0% y/y expectedPrior +2.2% A marked fall in energy prices is said to be driving the lower inflation pressures in France in September. But in any case, market players will take in comfort from this as it just increases the odds of a rate cut by the ECB next month. EUR/USD

Tokyo area inflation data is due today: National-level CPI data for this month will follow in about three weeks, it takes longer to gather and collate the national data.Tokyo CPI is a sub-index of the national CPIIt measures the change in prices of goods and services in the Tokyo metropolitan areaIts considered a leading indicator

Prior m/m +0.2%Headline inflation PCE +2.2% y/y vs +2.3% expected (Prior +2.5%)Deflator +0.1% m/m vs +0.1% expected (prior was +0.2%)Unrounded +0.0907% m/m vs +0.155% prior Consumer spending and income for August: Personal income +0.2% vs +0.4% expected. Prior month +0.2%Personal spending +0.2% vs +0.3% expected. Prior month +0.5%Real personal spending +0.1% vs +0.4% prior Core

US initial jobless claims 218K versus 225K estimateUS Q2 final GDP +3.0% vs +3.0% expectedUS August durable goods orders 0.0% vs -2.6% expectedUS pending home sales for August 0.6% versus 1.0% expectedOPEC+ likely to go ahead with planned Dec oil output increase – reportKansas City Fed manufacturing index for September -18 versus +6 last monthUS

By cutting rates 50 basis points, the Fed has declared something of a victory over inflation but there is still some problematic inflation, particularly around insurance, healthcare and housing. With China stimulating this week, next year might not be as smooth sailing on prices as hoped. That said, the bond market is still seeing sub-2%

German DAX futures +0.2%UK FTSE futures +0.1% This comes as Chinese equities continue to stay more buoyed to end the week. The CSI 300 index is up another 3.6% today and poised to end the week with near 15% gains. Yowza. US futures are more muted today though, with S&P 500 futures keeping flat. Wall

Due on Friday, September 27, 2024 at 0830 US Eastern time, the Core PCE data is the focus. The Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) data is a key measure of inflation that tracks changes in the prices of goods and services purchased by consumers. It is reported monthly by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) and

Fundamental Overview The USD remains under pressure amid the aggressive market pricing for rate cuts and better global growth expectations following the recent huge Chinese easing measures. It’s now a battle between global growth supporting the risk sentiment and weighing on the greenback and the aggressive rates pricing which could be scaled back if the

The US National Weather Service has issued a Tornado Warning for North central Charlotte County in southwestern Florida and Central DeSoto County in south central Florida. Along with multiple other warnings, including: Flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without shelter. Mobile homes will be damaged or destroyed. Damage to roofs, windows, and vehicles

Fundamental Overview The USD remains under pressure amid the aggressive market pricing for rate cuts and better global growth expectations following the recent huge Chinese easing measures. It’s now a battle between global growth supporting the risk sentiment and weighing on the greenback and the aggressive rates pricing which could be scaled back if the

The results of the run-off vote should be in the next hour and it’s still a close call now, with ex-environment minister Koizumi bowing out. The Nikkei is happy with the results so far at least, rallying further on the day. And that is weighing on the yen a little, with USD/JPY now inching back

The pair is now down 0.4% on the day to 1.1135 after the softer inflation numbers for France and Spain earlier. That is seeing traders step up ECB rate cut odds for October, with the futures market pricing in a ~91% probability for a 25 bps rate cut. Meanwhile, the OIS market is pricing in

Fundamental Overview The USDJPY pair this morning has been on a rollercoaster. Initially, we got a rally following the soft Tokyo CPI numbers and then Takaichi winning the first round of votes in the Japanese election. Things turned around quickly in the run-off as Ishiba won triggering a selloff in the pair. Takaichi was the

Australian Treasurer Chalmers is in China for meetings re economic relations with China. had frank and fruitful tasks with NDRC (China’s state planner)will have annual talks, strategic economic dialogueChina slowdown a crucial factor in weaker growh globally sees China stimulus as a “really welcome development” – This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

No changes to the initial estimate as the Spanish economy remains one of the bright spots in the euro area so far this year. This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

It is of Category 4 intensity and is the third hurricane to slam Florida’s Big Bend region in under 13 months. Of note, three of the last five hurricanes to have struck the mainland in the US have also landed in this region. Going back to Helene, it is reportedly sustaining winds of around 130

Poor data again from China but it may well be shrugged off given the stimulus announcements so far this week and the expectation there may be more (fiscal) to follow. China January – August industrial profits +0.5% y/y prior +3.6% August industrial profits are down 17.8% y/y prior +4.1% This article was written by Eamonn

Rate cuts by year-end Fed: 74 bps (51% probability of 50 bps rate cut at the upcoming meeting) 2025: 190 bps ECB: 49 bps (92% probability of rate cut at the upcoming meeting) 2025: 171 bps BoE: 37 bps (78% probability of rate cut at the upcoming meeting) 2025: 152 bps BoC: 73 bps (52%

They are the next one to shift towards this call, following from HSBC before this. Both had previously expected the ECB to cut rates in December instead. Meanwhile, Deutsche Bank was also out in saying that the ECB needs to step up their pace of rate cuts here. But their call came right before this

USD/JPY has popped well above its Thursday high, to a 3 week high around 145.50 and change. We had data earlier from Japan: Tokyo area September inflation data: Headline 2.2% y/y (expected 2.2%)USD/JPY sitting around its recent high circa 145.05 after the Tokyo inflation data And rate cuts from China: PBOC cuts 7 day reverse

To remove curbs on non-local residents from purchasing homesTo scrap limits on number of homes that residents can buyBeijing to also consider limiting similar restrictions but in key districts The changes are expected to be announced in the “coming weeks”. This just piles on top of all of the measures announced this week and is

People’s Bank of China trims the required minimum capital banks much hold in reserve. The PBOC announced they’d be doping this earlier in the week. They’ce come through today. RRR cut by 50bp. — The Reserve Requirement Ratio (RRR) is a central bank regulation that sets the minimum amount of reserves each bank must hold

I’ve been focused on China all week and thinking about how the stimulus will play out. So far so good with Chinese equities up a sparkling 10% as we head into the final trading day of the week. ZeroHedge has a great recap of the latest note from Scott Rubner, managing director for global markets

Economic confidence 96.2 vs 96.5 expectedPrior 96.6; revised to 96.5Industrial confidence -10.9 vs -9.9 expectedPrior -9.7; revised to -9.9Services confidence 6.7 vs 5.9 expectedPrior 6.3; revised to 6.4 Euro area economic confidence tilts a little lower towards the end of Q3, as we are starting to see softer signals surrounding the outlook. It has been

Earlier: PBOC cuts 7 day reverse repo rate to 1.5% (prior 1.7%)People’s Bank of China cuts RRR by 50bp *** People’s Bank of China USD/CNY reference rate is due around 0115 GMT. The People’s Bank of China (PBOC), China’s central bank, is responsible for setting the daily midpoint of the yuan (also known as renminbi

0815 GMT / 0415 US Eastern time – European Central Bank chief economist Philip Lane delivers opening remarks at a conference about Fiscal Policy, Financial Sector Policy and Economic Growth 0940 GMT / 0540 US Eastern time – Keynote speech by ECB board member Piero Cipollone at “Economics of Payments XIII” conference organised by the

Ishiba received 215 votes in the run-off while Takaichi only got 194 votes. That’s good news for yen bulls, as Takaichi was the one who had been vocal in scrutnising the BOJ for hiking rates too fast. So, Ishiba winning at least takes some of that pressure away. This article was written by Justin Low

The Swiss National Bank (SNB), which initiated the global trend of monetary easing in March, made its third rate cut on Thursday, lowering its policy rate by 25 basis points to 1%. Switzerland has largely sidestepped the inflation surge seen in much of the developed world, with consumer prices rising by just 1.1% in August,

Here is the breakdown of the results for the top candidates: Ishiba – 154 votesKoizumi – 136 votesTakaichi – 181 votes The needed majority was supposed to be 368 votes. This means that Ishiba and Takaichi will now face off in the run-off vote. The result should come in the next hour or so. This

The European session will see the release of low-tier indicators which shouldn’t matter much. In the American session, we get the Canadian GDP, the US PCE and final UMich Consumer Sentiment report. These releases shouldn’t change the markets expectations. The real action will be the next week with the release of the ISM Manufacturing PMI

US inflation (PCE) data due Friday – here are the critical ranges to watchBOJ hiking (slowly), RBA cutting (slowly), Fed, BoC, RBNZ all cuttingFederal Reserve Board Governor Michelle Bowman is speaking again on FridayEuropean Central Bank speakers on Friday include Lane and CipolloneChina YTD industrial profits +0.5% y/y (prior +3.6%)PBOC sets USD/ CNY reference rate

Federal Reserve Board Governor Lisa Cook is speaking at 2200 GMT, which is 1800 GMT. gives lecture, “Artificial Intelligence and the Labor Force” before the Ohio State University President and Provost’s Diversity Lecture and Cultural Arts Series Cook spoke earlier at the same event: Fed’s Cook: Optimistic AI can boost productivity Did not speak on

When markets open up on Monday, it will be October. Notably, Chinese markets will be open Monday as the Chinese Communist Party celebrates 75 years in power. From there, Chinese equity markets will be closed for the remainder of the week. That’s an important detail because China has been rolling out stimulus measures and leaks

Federal Reserve Board Governor Michelle Bowman voted for a 25bp rate cut last week, dissenting from the majority 50bp cut vote. 1715 GMT / 1315 US Eastern time – Bowman participates in a conversation before the Alabama Bankers Association Bank CEO Meeting. Bowman spoke on Thursday Fed’s Bowman repeats speech from earlier this week. No

Here’s something else to worry about. A speaker at the S&P Global Ratings European Financial Institutions Conference 2024 in London said “Central banks are not ready to deal with an AI-driven crisis in the banking industry”. The comment is from Jon Danielsson, director of the Systemic Risk Centre and reader in finance at the London

The S&P index is closing at another record high. The index is up 23.11 points or 0.40% at 5745.37. The new intraday all-time high comes in at 5767.37. The Dow industrial average also rose 5 260.36 points or 0.62% at 42175.11, and the NASDAQ index gained 108.09 points or 0.60% at 18190.29. The small-cap Russell

The EURUSD started the day with volatile up-and-down price action. The price was trading above and below 100/200 hour MAs indicative of uncertainty from buyers and sellers. IN the morning video, I talked about this dynamic. I gave the small nod to the buyers on the back of higher lows, the price was above the

ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence for September 2024 comes in at 95.1, its highest level since January 2022 prior 92.2third straight month of improvementstill well below 100, and thus still net pessimistic ANZ comment: lift was driven by expectations about the future, rather than views of the here and nowinflation expectations were unchanged at 3.8% From

Headline CPI 2.2% y/y, in line with expectations but down from August expected 2.2%, prior 2.6% Core 2.0% y/y, and ditto, in line with expectations but down from August expected 2.0%, prior 2.4%this is ex food Core-core 1.6% y/y, in line with expectations and an unchanged rate from August expected 1.6%, prior 1.6%this is ex

Here is the data: Tokyo area September inflation data: Headline 2.2% y/y (expected 2.2%) Headline and core were well behaved, but it’s the core-core 9excluding food and energy and the closest to US core inflation) that might be beading some sweat on brows at the Bank of Japan: Core-core 1.6% y/y, in line with expectations

The People’s Bank of China announced they’d be doing this earlier in the week. Reverse repo rate cut delivered now. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

Earlier: PBOC cuts 7 day reverse repo rate to 1.5% (prior 1.7%)People’s Bank of China cuts RRR by 50bp Also, as you’ll note below, the 14-day reverse repo rate has been cut to 1.65%, from 1.85%. The cuts were promised earlier this week. I’m wary of a ‘sell the fact’ response today, *** The People’s

Deutsche Bank has revised its expectations for the European Central Bank rate cutting cycle … its going to be faster: DB see consecutive ECB 25bp rate cuts, beginning from the 12 December meetingDB don’t rule out a 50bp cut in December Terminal rate of 2 – 2.5% seen mid-2025 This compares to DB’s prior forecast

State TV in China reported that Ministry of Finance and Ministry of Civil Affairs will issue living subsidies to disadvantaged groups before the National Day holiday next week. local authorities should ensure the funds reach their target recipients before October 1 (Oct 1 is the anniversary of the founding of the People’s Republic of China)to

Goldman Sachs have ramped up their forecasts for GBP: their end of 2024 GBP/USD forecast is 1.34 (from 1.27)GS target 0.82 for EUR/GBP Analysts at the bank have a supportive list for sterling: Resilient risk:”Markets have priced out US recession risk, benefiting risky assets and pro-cyclical currencies like Sterling”Ongoing Fed easing and US growthRate cut

More from Federal Reserve Board Governor Lisa Cook more to come This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

Federal Reserve Board Governor Lisa Cook speaking on policy and the economy this time: Wholeheartedly supported 50 bps rate cut.On path of policy, will look carefully at data, outlook, balance of risks.Normalization of economy, particularly of inflation, ‘quite welcome.’Labor market ‘solid’ but has cooled noticeably; may become more difficult for some to find employment.Sees significant

Hurricane Helene rapidly intensified into a potentially catastrophic 130 mph Category 4 storm. If it makes landfall at that intensity it’d be the first Cat 4+ hurricane since the mid 1800s. nearly 5 feet of storm surge being observed along the western Florida Peninsula tides rising over the next several hours could surge these levels

In this video, I take a look at the three major commodity currency pairs vs the USD: The AUDUSD, USDCAD and NZDUSD. The AUDUSD has been testing swing highs going back to June and July 2023 both yesterday and today. Yesterday the price moved above does highs between 0.68947 and 0.68997, but could not sustain

We’re sorting through some quarter-end flows at the moment so I’m suspicious of FX moves but the euro, pound and antipodeans in particularly are climbing on this move in the dollar. China didn’t offer a full picture on fiscal support today but said it would offer the “necessary spending” to meet this year’s 5% target.

Prior month -5.5% Pending home sales for August 0.6% versus 1.0% expectedIndex comes in at 70.6 versus 70.2 last monthMonth over month, contract signings rose in the Midwest, South and West but dropped in the Northeast.Compared to one year ago, pending home sales decreased in the Northeast, Midwest and South but increased in the West.

Fundamental Overview Gold has been on a sustained rally ever since the last Fed’s decision as real yields fell further due to inflation expectations rising faster than nominal yields. More recently, real yields pulled back a bit, while gold continued to print new highs. The new driver could be China as this week they started

The US Treasury will auction $44B of 7-year notes at the top of the hour. The auction results will be compared to the 6-month averages of the major components. One component is the Tail The tail is the difference between the WI level (when issued level) at the time of the auction and the actually

The report says that the doves at the ECB are preparing to fight for a rate cut next month after weighing up the softer economic data as of late. The sources say that the poor PMI data and a slowdown in wages are stirring up confidence among those who are in favour of lower rates.

Japan’s ruling party will vote for a new leader on Friday who will almost-surely be the country’s Prime Minister shortly afterwards. Current PM Fumio Kishida has stepped down and the new leader may take a more-active role in directing the Bank of Japan. There are nine candidates but three seen as leading candidates. Sanae TakaichiShinjiro

In the Kickstart video from earlier this morning, I highlighted the 1.3348 as the key barometer on the downside for the GBPUSD today. Move below it would be more bearish. Stay above it would be more bullish. This is the reference to that level: Looking at the current hourly chart below, the 100 hour MA

High yield 3.668% WI level at the time of the auction 3.675%Tail -0.7 basis points six-month average of 0.1 basis points. Last month the tail was 0.9 bpsBid to cover:, 2.63X versus six-month average of 2.54X. Last month it was 2.5XDirects (the % of domestic buyers) 20.26% versus six-month average of 16.8%Indirects (the % of

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Prior month +6KC Fed manufacturing index -18 versus +/monthComposite index is -8 versus -3 last month The manufacturing index is at its lowest level since July 2023. The index does move up and down a lot. Last month it went from -12 to +6. The +6 was the highest since August 2023 when it reached

The gains picked up during the handover from Asia to Europe, following comments from China’s Politburo here. That amplified Beijing’s commitment from all of the measures announced this week and also drove Chinese equities to surging gains on the day. S&P 500 futures were already up 0.3% at the time but extended that to 0.8%

In the post yesterday on the USDCAD, I spoke of support on the daily chart going all the way back to February 2024 and March 2024. Those lows came in at 1.3412 and 1.3419. Yesterday the low price reached 1.34189, and started to bounce. In that same post I talked about target levels at 1.3465

German DAX futures +0.8%UK FTSE futures +0.5% US futures were already a little higher earlier but overall risk sentiment is getting an added boost as China is coming out with force to amplify their measures to bolster the economy this week. The Politburo announcement here is triggering strong gains in domestic equities and is pushing

In the kickstart video for September 26, I take a look at 3 major currency pairs – the EURUSD, USDJPY and GBPUSD. For the EURUSD, the price action today and over the last few trading days, has been up and down volatile. On most days, there are technical levels that the “market” pays attention to.

Good morning, afternoon and evening all. Any charts, technical analysis, trade ideas, thoughts, views, ForexLive traders would like to share and discuss with fellow ForexLive traders, please do so: This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

Fundamental Overview The S&P 500 has been on a sustained rally ever since the last FOMC decision with the market continuing to price in a back-to-back 50 bps cut in November. More recently, the PBoC surprised with strong easing measures as Chinese officials seem to have finally decided to go bigger. The market might now

Oil was roiled earlier today by an FT report saying Saudi Arabia was no longer targeting $100 oil. Now we’re getting more leaks with a Reuters sources report saying that the planned Dec output hike is still going ahead but will have a small impact given planned compensation cuts from some members. This article was

Closing changes: Stoxx 600 +1.1%German DAX +1.6%France’s CAC +2.2%UK’s FTSE 100 flatSpain’s IBEX +1.4%Italy’s FTSE MIB +1.5% Europe is a heavy exporter to China and some stimulus from Beijing is certainly welcome. The euro has been slow to respond but is also ticking higher now. This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

They are sticking with the view that the ECB will begin delivering back-to-back rate cuts, but starting from December. A further weakening in the economic outlook is the main cause for the shift in their call, after having previously forecasting the ECB to deliver on 25 bps rate cuts every quarter until a terminal rate

The vote will take place Friday afternoon, with results of the first round scheduled to be announced at 2:20 p.m. There will be a runoff if the top candidate fails to win a majority, with the results to be announced at 3:30 p.m. Tokyo time. MUFG highlights the potential for investors to offload some of

Goldman Sachs anticipates that the Swiss National Bank (SNB) will cut rates in this week’s meeting, likely opting for a smaller cut (25bp) rather than a more substantial 50bp reduction. The decision follows softer-than-expected inflation data and aims to preserve room for future adjustments if necessary. Key Points: Inflation and Rate Cut Expectations: Recent inflation

The former Fed chair and current Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen is speaking on CNBC and says: Banking system is well-capitalized.A good deal of thought is going into how to shore up liquidity, access to Fed’s discount window. US labor market, inflation suggests were on a path to a soft landing.There is a bit more slack

The Bank of Japan will be watching on as Japan braces for another round of price hikes in October. In addition to price increases, wages are set to rise. The minimum wage to increase by 51 yen to 1,055 yen (national average). Postal rates to jump ~30%, first increase in 30 years excluding tax hikes

David Tepper was on CNBC and made some very bullish comments on China. HE said he has gone over his usual limits. He said he bought more on the PBOC announcements this week and even more overnight today on the fiscal announcements. “This is incredible stuff for that country,” he said of the stimulus. “This

But sees no risk of deflationFurther rate cuts might be necessary to ensure price stabilityPrimary tool for the SNB will be interest rates but FX intervention could be used if necessary The language is not much changed to that in June really. Back then, they noted about how “further policy adjustments” might be necessary. Now,

Fed’s Lisa Cook is speaking and says: Optimistic AI can boost productivityAI has potential for negative employment impacts Does not address monetary policy or economic outlook at the AI focused event. However, if productivity can be increased, that can help to keep inflation low and growth high. This article was written by Greg Michalowski at

Ex-transport +0.5% vs +0.1% expectedPrior ex-transport +0.1% (unrevised)Excluding defense, new orders rose -0.2% vs +10.3% priorNondefense capital goods orders (ex-aircraft) +0.2% vs +0.0% expectedPrior nondefense capital goods orders -0.2% (revised from -0.1%)Unfilled orders: +0.4% vs +0.2% priorInventories inched +0.1% vs +0.1% prior This is a decent report with a slight beat on core orders. Headline

Headlines: China’s Politburo reaffirms will lower RRR and implement forceful interest rate cutsAussie bounces back today on upbeat China sentimentIs this the real turning point for Chinese equities?SNB cuts key policy rate by 25 bps to 1.00% from 1.25% previouslySNB chairman Jordan: Swiss franc rise a major factor of inflation declineECB October policy decision reportedly

Tech stocks surge while energy sector slides: Navigating today’s market shifts The U.S. stock market today paints a vibrant picture of sectoral shifts, with technology stocks outperforming while energy stocks face significant declines. Investors have embraced rising tech giants, while concerns over the energy sector loom large. Navigating these dynamics is crucial for strategic portfolio

The NASDAQ index was up 245.13 points at its session highs this morning, and moved to down -10.47 points. It is currently trading up 32 points or 0.18% at 18115.90. Helping to contribute to the declines was a report from the Wall Street Journal that Super Microcomputers was under investigation for accounting irregularities: Super Micro

The joint economic forecasts for the autumn now shows that these institutes are expecting the German economy to shrink by 0.1% in 2024. Their previous forecast was for the German economy to grow by 0.3% this year. The projected drop now will follow from the 0.3% contraction in the economy seen last year. “In addition

U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen is speaking before the 2024 Treasury Market Conference on Thursday, September 26, 2024. scheduled for 1120 US Eastern time (this is 1520 GMT) The event is hosted by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York. Yellen was Federal Reserve Chair prior to current incumbent Powell. Her comments are often market

The US 10 year yield has risen to its highest level since September 4. The yield is currently at 3.817%. That’s up 3.6 basis points on the day. The low yield for September has reached 3.599% (call it 3.60%). Since then, the yield is up 21.7 basis points. The Fed cut rates on September 18

The speech is a repeat from Tuesday. Dissent to half-point cut warranted by inflation still above target, “measured pace of cuts more appropriate” Core inflation remains uncomfortably above 2% target with upside risks given ongoing growth in spending, wages Recalibrating policy appropriate given progress on inflation, but should not declare victory yet Upside risks to

The main event in the European session will be the SNB Rate Decision. In the American session we will get the final US Q2 GDP, the US Jobless Claims and the US Durable Goods Orders. 07:30 GMT – SNB Rate Decision The SNB is expected to cut rates by 25 bps and bring the policy

The major stock indices are trading higher in early US trading. China’s stimulus measures this week have helped to advance stocks. AliBaba the is trading up 7.44%PDD Holdings is trading up 10.80%JD.com is trading up 12.32%Baidu is up 9.37%iShare MSCI and ETF is trading up 8.09% A snapshot of the US indices is currently showing:

Prior -22.0; revised to -21.9 The reading is an improvement to the month before. However, in the grand scheme of things, German consumer sentiment remains depressed mostly. GfK notes that: “After the sever setback in the previous month, the slight improvement in consumer sentiment can be interpreted as stabilisation at a low level. The consumer

The AUD is the strongest and the USD is the weakest as the NA session begins. As traders in the US reach their desks at work or at home, they are met with sharply higher stock futures and modestly lower yields. Optimism surged after China’s politburo announced plans for “necessary fiscal spending” to achieve its

In terms of market pricing, it is literally a 50-50 call at the moment. The OIS market is pricing in an exact split between a 25 bps and 50 bps rate cut currently. So, that’s important to take note of even if the “expectation” is for a 25 bps rate cut. The SNB would prefer

These comments don’t touch on monetary policy. There are downside risks to discount windowYou do need to be signed up for it and you do need to testDon’t necessarily need to preposition collateral at discount windowFixing discount window by modernizing it is importantCould be unintended consequences by forcing banks to use discount window, or hold

The best business to own this year was old-fashioned power generation. It’s poetic how an industry that was seen as the epitome of quiet and predictable has just passed the AI-revolutionary defining company as the best performer in the S&P 500 this year. That’s what Vistra did as it’s now gained 252% year-to-date. Vistra is

Federal Reserve speakers on Thursday include Powell and Williams, dissenter Bowman alsoMore on China considering a 1 trillion yuan injections of capital into banksBank of America say Sterling has more room to riseReports that China is considering injecting US$142bn of capital into top banksRBA says around 2% of owner occupiers in real danger of defaultingPBOC

Since mid-year, any NordFX broker client can take advantage of the automated withdrawal feature. This innovation, among many others, is aimed at further enhancing the quality of service and comfort for the company’s clients. Currently, 84% of withdrawal requests are processed automatically. The service is available 24/7 and is executed almost instantly after a request

Prior 1.25%Prepared to intervene in FX market as necessaryInflation pressures have again decreased significantly compared to the previous quarterThat reflects the appreciation of the Swiss franc over the last few monthsStronger franc partly contributed to downward revision in inflation forecastsInflationary pressure abroad is likely to continue to ease gradually over the next quartersFurther rate cuts

Prior +2.3% This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

Fundamental Overview The Nasdaq has been on a sustained rally ever since the last FOMC decision with the market continuing to price in a back-to-back 50 bps cut in November. More recently, the PBoC surprised with strong easing measures as Chinese officials seem to have finally decided to go bigger. The market might now looking

The times below are listed in US Eastern time / GMT format: 0930/1330 Welcome address ECB President Christine Lagarde at the 8th annual ESRB conference “New Frontiers in Macroprudential Policy” in Frankfurt0945/1345 Keynote speech by ECB board member Claudia Buch at the same conference 1015/1415 Participation by ECB board member Luis de Guindos in a

In a note, analysts at Bank Credit Analyst suggest that the monetary easing measures introduced by the People’s Bank of China (PBoC) may offer a short-term lift to market sentiment. However, drawing parallels to Japan’s housing crisis of the 1990s, they warn that monetary easing alone is unlikely to halt a deflationary spiral or drive

Prior week 219K revised to 222KInitial jobless claims 218K vs 225K est4- week moving average initial jobless 224.75 vs 228.25 Continuing claims 1.834M vs 1.838M estimate. Prior week revised to 1.821M from 1.829M prior4-week moving average continuing claims 1.836M versus 1.842M last week. The largest increases in initial claims for the week ending September 14

Prelim reading was +3.0%Final Q1 was +1.4% (unrevised) This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

Fundamental Overview The US Dollar came under renewed pressure recently following the surprisingly weak US consumer confidence report on Tuesday. The labour market data in the report softened a lot and it generally leads the unemployment rate. The market responded by raising the probabilities for the Fed to cut by 50 bps in November to

That follows from the report here. And the odds of a 25 bps rate cut for next month are now at ~80%. As for the remaining two meetings combined (the other in December), traders are seeing ~48 bps of rate cuts in total now. But to be fair, that is just a mild step up

Ahead of Kugler, the market was pricing in a 62% chance of a 50 bps cut on November 7. Says she will support additional rate cuts going forwardFed should keep focus on reducing inflation and also shift attention to maximum employmentEstimates PCE inflation at 2.2% in August, Core PCE at 2.7% in signs of progress

We get the ‘final’ Q2 US GDP report today but that’s generally not a market mover as now we’re just 4 days away from the end of Q3. More important today are initial jobless claims and durable goods orders. I’d put claims at the top of the list. Here is Parker Ross on claims, as

And on the week itself, the greenback is now trading more mixed heading into the new day in Europe. The changes today are light but here is how things are playing out so far on the week: The commodity currencies are still well ahead, with risk trades continuing to stay more buoyed. Wall Street did

UBS cite various supply and demand factors for their forecast. Beginning with Federal Reserve’s growth-oriented monetary policy contributing to a favourable environment for oil prices. UBS point out that Brent crude often benefits from positive market sentiment, which has improved since the Fed began easing its policies. In the long run, the Fed’s efforts to

The People’s Bank of China set the onshore yuan (CNY) reference rate for the trading session ahead. USD/CNY is the onshore yuan. Its permitted to trade plus or minus 2% from this daily reference rate.CNH is the offshore yuan. USD /CNH has no restrictions on its trading range.A significantly stronger or weaker rate than expected

Russell 2000 Technical Analysis – Daily Timeframe On the daily chart, we can see that the Russell 2000 got rejected from the cycle highs and pulled back. The buyers will want to see the price breaking higher to increase the bullish bets into a new all-time high, while the sellers will likely step back in

US sells 5-year notes at 3.519% vs 3.519% WIRussian Putin: Current military – political situation is changing dynamicallyHurricane Helene expected to make landfall in Florida on Thursday eveningUS crude oil inventories for the current week -4.471M versus -1.354M estimateUS new home sales units for August 0.716M vs 0.700M estimate Markets: Gold up $3 to $2659US

There are just a couple to take note of, as highlighted in bold. The first ones are for EUR/USD at the 1.1150 and 1.1180-90 levels. That could play a role in locking price action a fair bit during the session ahead, amid the lack of other catalysts in driving the currency pair. That at least

Eurostoxx +1.2%Germany DAX +1.1%France CAC 40 +1.2%UK FTSE +0.6%Spain IBEX +0.9%Italy FTSE MIB +0.9% This comes as the Shanghai Composite index closes up by 3.6% to close above the 3,000 mark for the first time since June. Meanwhile, the CSI 300 index closes up by a whopping 4.2% on the day. For the week itself,

I posted on the note from UBS briefly yesterday, following the announcements from China on Tuesday. Adding a little more now. The analysis highlights a positive shift toward a more accommodative policy stance, though it falls short of the significant stimulus measures seen in past years that drove sustained market rallies. According to the note,

MUFG note that the euro may continue to rise following a boost from China’s stimulus measures announced on Tuesday “Increased global growth optimism will help and the stimulus measures announced by China will certainly add to dollar selling momentum” MUFG add that especially since the European Central Bank (ECB) is unlikely to hasten interest rate

Earlier headline on this is here: Reports that China is considering injecting US$142bn of capital into top banks A huge injection would be the first since the 2008 global financial crisis. The capital injection would be into China’s biggest state banks, struggling with shrinking margins, faltering profits, rising bad loans. The broader economic picture weighing

Further rate cuts may be necessary in the coming quartersStronger franc, lower oil and electricity prices contributed to lower inflation forecastsSwiss economic growth will be ‘rather modest’ in the coming quarters He’s mainly just repeating the policy statement for the most part. USD/CHF is down 0.1% on the day to 0.8490 but off earlier lows

Listen out for clues about the next rate cut from the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC). Expectatins are currently solidifying around a 50bp cut again at the November meeting. The times given below are US Eastern time / GMT: 0910/1310 Federal Reserve Bank of Boston President Susan Collins hosts a virtual fireside chat with Federal

The Dow and S&P index felt fell while the NASDAQ index rose in trading today The Dow industrial average closed at record levels for four consecutive days. That string was broken today with a decline of -293.47 points or -0.70% at 41914.75.The S&P index two day string of record closes was also broken when it

The pair suffered a technical rejection from the June and July 2023 highs near 0.6900 yesterday. But it is seen bouncing back today, gaining further after the Politburo sounded a strong message to support the measures undertaken this week to bolster the Chinese economy. Chinese equities are rallying further as a result after the lunch

China news headline from Bloomberg and Reuters. China injected capital into big banks during the global financial crisis back in 2008. That was the last time it did so. Pondering doing it again now. This sort of stuff is very positive for ‘risk’, at least for a trade. Folks will always worry that its not

The NZDUSD has been tracking the 100-hour MA higher There have been some brief moves below the 100 hour MA over the last few weeks, with a few times when the price dipped below the MA but quickly rebounded higher. Today, there has been another dip below the 100 hour MA. Seller are “making a

Will ensure necessary fiscal spendingWill step up force of counter-cyclical adjustments of fiscal, monetary policiesWill strive to achieve full-year economic, social development targetsTo make efforts to stop falls in property market and to get it stabilisedWill increase efforts to attract and stabilise investments The main message here is that they are trying to amplify all

The China stimulus announcement on Tuesday continues to make waves: BCA suggest that the stimulus announced from China is 1990s Japan all over againEyes on China to boost the … euroUBS analysis predicts market support from October stimulus; Renminbi hedging recommendedUBS is forecasting Brent crude oil back to US$87 (by year end) *** People’s Bank

Reserve Bank of Australia Financial Stability Review, September 2024. Headlines via Reuters: The Australian financial system is resilient, and risks are contained.Risks include stress in China’s financial sector and a lack of significant response from Beijing.Low global risk premia and high leverage increase the danger of a disorderly downturn in global asset prices.The financial system

Bank of America cite: fading of excessively negative views on the UK economyUK remains a largely underinvested/undervalued sector in the asset allocation spacethe currency remains fundamentally undervaluedthe political backdrop is more favourablethere is a more positive outlook for UK-EU relations GBP/USD fell on Wednesday in line with a surging USD pretty much everywhere. Faster cuts

The index is up 7% on the week currently and looks poised to hold the rallying mood before the Chinese holiday next week. Beijing has made a plethora of announcements and promises this week to try and bolster economic activity. And that is lifting the overall mood, even if it is via the monetary policy

Bank of Japan July meeting minutes, full text here. Headlines via Reuters: Members shared a view over the need for vigilance to the risk of inflation overshoot.Many members said it was appropriate to raise rates to 0.25%, adjusting the degree of monetary support.A few members said it was appropriate to adjust the degree of monetary

The Bank of Japan minutes are from the July 2024 meeting, where short term rates were raised again in a bit of a surprise decision, or would have been if it wasn’t leaked all over the place the day before! BOJ to discuss hike to 0.25% – reportAnother Bank of Japan leak says 0.25% is

Federal Reserve Board Governor Adriana Kugler is speaking still. Earlier here: Fed’s Kugler says she strongly supported 50 bps rate cut And: More from Fed’s Kugler – We do not want the labour market to weaken further In that ‘More from’ post are few buried comments on job numbers that’ll get the Federal Open Market

We had the minutes of the Bank of Japan July meeting earlier, confirming board members want to continue along the rate hike path, albeit at a measured pace. JPY found some bids, with useyn dipping to lows around 144.45. Since then its bounced back, highs have been around 144.94. The USD surged on Wednesday: Forexlive

Federal Reserve Governor Kugler speaking in Q&A now We’re at a place where we don’t want labour market to weaken furtherMakes sense to shift attention to employment mandate.Inflation measures excluding housing are near 2%, but that’s not what we target.We are making very good progress, but not at 2% yet.I don’t see that we will

Commonwealth Bank of Australia rgue that the RBA’s latest household consumption forecasts, updated in August, “look too rosy”. CBA point to the 1.1% rebound in household consumption the RBA is projecting, and argue: This represents a significant increase compared to the 0.3% growth seen in the first half of the year. Such a sharp rise

The House just passed a continuing resolution to fund the government until December 20 The vote was 341 for. Democrats and some Reblicans voted for. The 82 against were Republicans. The passage was expected. The downside to this is we get to do this **** all over again in December. This article was written by

The House passed the bill an hour ago or so. The Senate has now voted in favour also. The passage was expected. The deadline for the funding agreement was September 30. Time to spare this time. Like I said earlier … funds the government until December 20. When will go through this baloney all over

Earlier today, the price of the GBPUSD moved to the highest level going back to January 2022. In the process, the price moved into a swing area between 1.3411 and 1.3511 on the weekly chart (see red numbered circles on the weekly chart).. Seller on the first return to that area leaned against it and

The EURUSD is moving lower as London/European traders look toward the exits. After running above the 1.1200 level in the early US session and extending to new highs for 2024 in the process, the price has shifted to the downside over the last three hours of trading. Swing highs from last Wednesday and Friday, and

China needed to show up with a double-barrelled bazooka this week and it only had one. Monetary policy delivered with a handful of impressive measures including rates cuts, shifts in reserves, financing for real estate buybacks and looser borrowing rules. That was a great start and it caused a squeeze in beaten-up China assets. More

0400 US Eastern time / 0800 GMT: Bank of England Monetary Policy Committee member Megan Greene gives aspeech on consumption hosted by the Chambers of Commerce, Newcastle Probably not of much relevance to traders, but at 0815 US Eastern time/ 1215 GMT: Bank of England Executive Director for Data and Analytics Transformation and Chief Data

The US treasury will auction off $70 million and five year notes at the top of the hour. The six-month average of the major components shows Bid to cover: 2.38XTail: 0.3 basis pointsDirects (domestic demand): 17.4%Indirects (international demand): 68.0%Dealers: 14.6% The auction results will be compared to the six-month averages to determine overall demand. This

Hurricane Helene has strengthened into a hurricane and is projected to make landfall along Florida’s Gulf Coast late Thursday as a major Category 3 storm. With maximum sustained winds expected to exceed 111 mph, Florida has declared a state of emergency and initiated evacuations in low-lying areas. Governor Ron DeSantis warned residents to prepare for

Fundamental Overview Yesterday, the US Consumer Confidence report surprised to the downside with one of the largest drops since 2021. The labour market data in the report softened a lot and it generally leads the unemployment rate. The market responded by raising the probabilities for the Fed to cut by 50 bps in November to

The weekly oil inventories it will be released at the bottom of the hour. The estimates are showing: Crude oil, -1.354M estGasoline, -0.021M estDistillates, -1.637M est. The private API data late yesterday showed larger than expected drawdowns: The price of WTI crude oil is trading down $1.10 and $70.46 This article was written by Greg

I will be hosting a webinar in a couple minutes on the economic landscape and the opportunity. Join here. This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

Rates have been creeping up at the long end since the Fed cut 50 bps and the market priced out some risk of recession. The belly of the curve though has been caught in between that and lower short-term rates and only ticket up slightly from the cycle low of 3.37% on September 11. Lowest

Number of clarifications have been proposed with regard to definition of conditions for use of a nuclear weaponsCurrent military – political situation is changing dynamically in the world, and we must take this into account.We see the emergence of new sources of military threats and risks for Russia and our allies.Category of state and military

Crude oil inventories -4.471M vs -1.354M estimate. Gasoline inventories -1.538M vs -0.021M estimateDistillates inventories -2.227M vs -1.637M estimateCushing +0.116M vs last week -1.979M ALthough the inventory data is showing a larger drawdown, the private API data yesterday was a precursor to today’s results. The API estimated inventories of crude oil-4.339M close to the above EIA

Shares of Nvidia rose 4% yesterday and are up another 3% today in a market that’s otherwise flat. Is that a tell? Here are three very simple reasons that I think it is: 1) ChatGPT voice advanced was released today I’ve been using ChatGPT voice for awhile and it’s very good but because of the

Israelis Army chief has told troops that Israel has been striking all day to both prepare the ground for possible entry, and to continue to degrade Hezbollah. Meanwhile in any separate report, the is leading efforts to end hostilities in Gaza and Lebanon: Deal would include hostage release (nothing new there)According to sources, Hezbollah is

The major European indices are closing the day lower. The declines were led by France’s CAC which fell -0.50%: German DAX, -0.39%France’s CAC, -0.50%UK’s FTSE 100 -0.17%Spain’s Ibex, -0.38%Italy’s FTSE MIB -0.12% As London/European traders head for the exit, US equities are mixed with the Dow and S&P lower. Dow -210 points or -0.50% at

UBS are not impressed by the stimulus announcement from China on Tuesday. In summary from the note : announcement signals a positive move toward a more supportive approachbut it doesn’t match the scale of past stimulus efforts that triggered sustained market ralliesmonetary easing by itself won’t be enough to end the current cycle of deflation

The data release is here: Australian August CPI 2.7% y/y (expected 2.8%)down from 3.5% in July As I said in that post, the drop in headline inflation is mainly due to combined Commonwealth and State government rebates. Indeed, current RBA forecasts are for a headline CPI rate bounce back above 3% once these subsidies roll

Headlines: Swiss franc eases in European trading, SNB eyed tomorrowPost-Fed struggles see the dollar as the laggard in September tradingBOE’s Greene: Appropriate to take a gradual approach to removing policy restrictivenessFrance September consumer confidence 95 vs 92 expectedSwitzerland September UBS investor sentiment -8.8 vs -3.4 priorUS MBA mortgage applications w.e. 20 September +11.0% vs +14.2%

The USDCAD moved sharply lower this week despite comments from Bank of Canada’s Macklin yesterday that the central bank had made progress on inflation and that it was reasonable given the continued progress in reducing inflation for further rate cuts. Nevertheless, Macklem did emphasize that future rate cuts will depend on incoming data and its

More geopolitics from Israel officials who say: France and the US are working on cease-fire proposals, but no significant progress has been made so far. This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

The technical story remains the same for the USDCHF as it remains between support and resistance between 0.8400 and 0.8537. In between sits a cluster of moving averages. Those moving averages come between 0.8466 and 0.8475. The current price is trading near the low of those moving averages after breaking above those moving averages earlier

Prior month +0.739M revised to 0.751MHome sales % change MoM -4.7% versus +10.3% last monthHome supply 7.8 months versus 7.3 months priorMedian sale price -4.6% to $420,600The 30 year mortgage rate has come down to 6.13%. Earlier today, mortgage applications increased by 11.0% after a 14.2% increase last week. Yields have start move back to

Australian Treasurer Jim Chalmers: “We’ve seen a weakness in the Chinese economy which obviously has consequences for usWe’re not immune from weakness in the Chinese economy and that’s why it is so important that over the next two days, I will be meeting with key Chinese counterparts in Beijing. This is another really important step

Of note, the current conditions reading eased further to 0.0 form 13.3 previously. Overall, it highlights growing pessimism towards the Swiss economic outlook over the next six months. This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

Market Sector Overview: Diverse Performances and Key Trends The US stock market presents a mixed picture today, with divergent trends across tech, healthcare, and consumer sectors. Utilizing the stock market heatmap, we identify sectors that are outperforming and those facing headwinds, while examining particular stocks that stand out in today’s trading environment. 📈 Technology Sector:

The major US stock indices are trading mixed at the open: Dow industrial average is trading down -32 points or -0.08% at 42179. S&P is up 3.55 points or 0.06% at 5736.31NASDAQ index is up 20.13 points or 0.11% at 18093.58 The small-cap Russell 2000 is down -4 points or -0.18% at 2219.96 Some winners

Light Crude Oil Futures Technical Analysis – Key Junction at $70.3 Hello, this is Itai Levitan at ForexLive.com, bringing you a technical analysis on Light Crude Oil Futures (Ticker: CL). As expected and communicated in my last oil technical analysis, the current touchpoint at the top pane of this channel is playing out as anticipated.

JP Morgan analysts have outlined what’s needed from China. The stimulus measures intended to be implemented, announced by the People’s Bank of China and other authorities on Tuesday, are not enough. JPM say that while policy adjustments in China have been gradual and calibrated so far, more substantial actions may be required to achieve the

🌎 2024 global growth forecast seen at 3.2% (previously 3.1%)🌎 2025 global growth forecast seen at 3.2% (unchanged)🇺🇸 2024 US growth forecast seen at 2.6% (unchanged)🇺🇸 2025 US growth forecast seen at 1.6% (previously 1.8%)🇨🇳 2024 China growth forecast seen at 4.9% (unchanged)🇨🇳 2025 China growth forecast seen at 4.5% (unchanged)🇯🇵 2024 Japan growth forecast

There are a couple to take note of on the day, as highlighted in bold. The standout ones are for EUR/USD at the 1.1200-10 levels. There is already key technical resistance holding the pair thereabouts as seen here, so the expiries will add another layer to that. So, that could keep a lid on price

Fundamental Overview Yesterday, the US Consumer Confidence report surprised to the downside with one of the largest drops since 2021. The labour market data in the report softened a lot and it generally leads the unemployment rate. The market responded by raising the probabilities for the Fed to cut by 50 bps in November to

Today the calendar is empty. The markets will either consolidate or continue to trade based on yesterday’s surprisingly weak US consumer confidence report. The labour market details in the report softened a lot and the market raised the probabilities for a 50 bps cut in November to roughly 60%. This doesn’t bode well for the

1600 US Eastern time / 2000 GMT: Federal Reserve Board Governor Adriana Kugler speaks on the economic outlook before an event hosted by Harvard Kennedy School We don’t hear from Kugler very often. I don’t imagine she’ll be dropping hints about a 50bp rate cut in November in her speech today. This article was written

Major currencies are trading lightly changed for the most part so far today, although risk sentiment is slightly softer ahead of European morning trade. Both US and European futures are lower and that is tempering with the optimism slightly from earlier in the week. AUD/USD briefly moved up above 0.6900 to its highest since February

US futures in the major stock indices are implying a lower open – but only marginally. Dow industrial average futures are implying a gain of 1.25 points. Yesterday, the index closed at a record levelS&P index is down -2.75 points. Yesterday the index rose 14.36 points or 0.25% and closed at a record levelNASDAQ index

A day after the USD was the weakest of the major currencies, the greenback is one of the strongest of the major currencies. The EURUSD is the only currency that the USD is weaker against in the morning snapshot. The USD is unchanged vs. the CAD as well. The JPY and the CHF are the

Fundamental Overview Yesterday, the US Consumer Confidence report surprised to the downside with one of the largest drops since 2021. The labour market data in the report softened a lot and it generally leads the unemployment rate. The market responded by raising the probabilities for the Fed to cut by 50 bps in November to

US actions severely impacts cooperation in the connected vehicle sectorIt constitutes as economic coercionUrges US to stop “unreasonable suppression” on Chinese firmsCalls on US to stop generalising national security and to immediately revoke its actions There’s always a new fight every other day between the two countries. All these little things just reaffirms that US-China

Both the EURUSD and the GBPUSD traded to new 2024 highs but at different points of the day. For the EURUSD it is extending above the 1.12000 level over the last few minutes of trading. That takes the pair to the highest level going back to July 2023 when the price high ultimately peaked at

Prior 92; revised to 93 French household confidence picked up again in September, nudging up to its highest since February 2022. It still keeps below the long-term average of 100 but at least overall conditions are improving. Unemployment fears decreased while worries about price pressures also showed signs of easing. This article was written by

German DAX futures -0.6%UK FTSE futures -0.6% This follows from the solid showing yesterday as well for European indices. US futures are also holding lower, so that’s weighing on the mood a fair bit. S&P 500 futures are down 0.3% after Wall Street managed to salvage a more positive close overnight. This article was written

Via a note from Commerzbank, in summary: forecasts the euro could climb to $1.15 by the middle of next yearforecast hinges on the European Central Bank reducing interest rates more cautiously than anticipated, especially compared to the Federal Reserve And cautions that regardless, EUR gains may not last: ECB’s long-term policies could be overly accommodative

Eurostoxx -0.6%Germany DAX -0.6%France CAC 40 -0.6%UK FTSE -0.3%Spain IBEX -0.5%Italy FTSE MIB -0.5% This comes with US futures also keeping lower so far today. S&P 500 futures are down 0.3% with Nasdaq futures down 0.5%. Wall Street did well to salvage some gains yesterday but the mood does look increasingly toppish. Then, there’s also

Fundamental Overview Yesterday, the US Consumer Confidence report surprised to the downside with one of the largest drops since 2021. The labour market data in the report softened a lot and it generally leads the unemployment rate. The market responded by raising the probabilities for the Fed to cut by 50 bps in November to

Prior +14.2%Market index 296.1 vs 266.8 priorPurchase index 148.2 vs 146.1 priorRefinance index 1,132.9 vs 941.4 prior30-year mortgage rate 6.13% vs 6.15% prior Mortgage applications continue to see a solid rebound in the past few weeks with yet another jump in the past week. That comes as rates continue to ease further, stirring another surge

The People’s Bank of China and other authorities in China announced multiple stimulus measures on Tuesday, including: People’s Bank of China to cut its benchmark interest ratePBOC to lower the amount of cash that banks need to hold in reserve (this would free up more yuan for lending)will cut the interest rate payable on existing

Caroline Ellison is Sam Bankman-Fried’s ex-girlfriend. She’s copped the jail time for helping Sam steal $8 billion in customer funds Ellison ran the hedge fund tied to the digital currency trading platform FTXShe pleaded guilty to seven counts of fraud and conspiracy.She testified against Bankman-Fried, which appears to have lightened her sentence. SBF has been

The greenback fell sharply in trading yesterday, not helped by some softer data out of the US. In case you missed it: Richmond Fed Composite index for September -21 vs. -13 estimateUS Conference Board consumer confidence for September 98.7 vs 104.0 estimate These aren’t major releases but little by little, it all starts to point

Via a note from Goldman Sachs on global equities, they see CTA systematic traders as net buyers for the next 2 weeks. GS says CTA traders are net long equities, around the 65th percentile, but nevertheless they will continue to be buyers “in every scenario” GS model. GS says this buying will offset a dearth

I had this on Tuesday but am only posting it now. Yes, it would have been much more helpful for me to post it yesterday. I have no excuse. But … if I did it was that I was snowed under by the news from those scoundrels in China! This is via KiwiBank in New

Australian August CPI 2.7% y/y, lower than expected and under the top end of the Reserve Bank of Australia 2 – 3% target band. Good news. expected 2.8%, prior 3.5% Trimmed mean 3.4% y/y expected 3.4%, prior 3.8%this above 3% rate for underlying inflation is still a throny issue for the Reserve Bank of Australia,

Cautious approach to easing monetary policy is appropriateLooking for incoming data to provide evidence that risk of persistent inflation is diminishingWage growth has fallen but remains above what our suite of models can explainRisks to activity are to the upside, which could suggest long run neutral rate is higher This just reaffirms their stance from

This via Wall Street Journal journalist and noted Fed watcher Nick Timiraos: If this is a sign of a deteriorating jobs market (its probably not a sign of a strengthening one!) It’ll file further pricing of 50bp rate cuts to come from the Federal Reserve. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

Bitcoin has been the king of cryptocurrencies since its launch in 2009. However, as the crypto world continues to evolve, Bitcoin faces competition from more technologically advanced cryptocurrencies like Ethereum and Solana. And now people are beginning to wonder if it will remain on top. Well, many pointers show that Bitcoin will remain one of

That sees the pair erase losses on the week itself as well, moving back to the opening levels this week. The franc is also pushed lower against the dollar, with USD/CHF itself now up 0.6% as well to 0.8485 on the day. All this comes as market players are eyeing the SNB policy decision tomorrow.

Federal Reserve speakers on Wednesday include Governor KuglerBank of England Monetary Policy Committee member Greene speaks on WednesdayChina – top government economic adviser disappears after crticism of Xi JinpingWall Street Journal Fed watcher Timiraos on sign of a weaker jobs marketFed SOMA Manager says markets see 50bp rate cut as good news, not badAustralian dollar

Medium-term Lending Facility (MLF) rate c This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

Fundamental Overview Yesterday, the US Consumer Confidence report surprised to the downside with one of the largest drops since 2021. The labour market data in the report softened a lot and it generally leads the unemployment rate. The market responded by raising the probabilities for the Fed to cut by 50 bps in November to

The monthly CPI data from Australia does not show all components of the CPI, that’ll have to wait for the quarterly data release. The monthly CPI indicator does, however, provide a timelier indication of inflation using the same data collected for use in the quarterly CPI. The monthly reading includes updated prices for between 62

The New York Federal Reserve branch’s Roberto Perli is manager of the Fed’s System Open Market Account SOMA). He spoke in a speech on Tuesday, saying that markets are not viewing the FOMC 50bp rate cut as an indication of stress in the economy. Reuters with the info: market intelligence collected by the New York

In the US stock market today, the S&P and Dow closed at new record levels once again. The NASDAQ was the biggest gainer with a gain of 0.56%. The final numbers are showing: Dow industrial average, + 0.20%S&P, +0.25%Nasdaq, +56%Russell 2000 +0.17% Some winners today include Alibaba, +7.91%Tencent, +7.00%Beyond Meat +6.59%Trump Media, +5.27%Taiwan Semiconduction, +4.13%Caterpaillar,

Via a note from JP Morgan on the China stimulus proposals that hit the headlines on Tuesday: The US has been the anchor for global growth, but a China reboot will also benefit the globeIt may create another inflationary pressure, so keep an eye on commodities and bond yields over the coming weeks — JPM

Zhu Hengpeng was deputy director of the Institute of Economics at the state-run Chinese Academy of Social Sciences ()CASS). CASS is China’s pre-eminent thinktanks. He lost his job and was detained after he allegedly made some remarks in a private group chat on the WeChat mobile-messaging app that were critical of President Xi’s economic management:

Here’s a snapshot of the month-to-date (MTD) changes among major currencies against the dollar as a benchmark. That and how things have played out after the Fed last week, alongside what other major central banks did during the month. Outside of the yen, the dollar has weakened significantly against the rest of the major currencies

People’s Bank of China USD/CNY reference rate is due around 0115 GMT. The People’s Bank of China (PBOC), China’s central bank, is responsible for setting the daily midpoint of the yuan (also known as renminbi or RMB). The PBOC follows a managed floating exchange rate system that allows the value of the yuan to fluctuate

Japan services PPI for August 2024 comes in at 2.7% y/y expected 2.6%, prior 2.8% The Bank of Japan (BOJ) closely monitors inflation in the service sector. This is to gauge whether increasing wages are prompting businesses to raise prices, which could signal more widespread consumer-level inflation. Inflation rates are a key factor in deciding

Earlier, a People’s Bank of China rate cut: PBOC 1-year Medium-term Lending Facility (MLF), rate cut to 2% (2.3% previously) *** The People’s Bank of China set the onshore yuan (CNY) reference rate for the trading session ahead. USD/CNY is the onshore yuan. Its permitted to trade plus or minus 2% from this daily reference

Klaas Knot is President of De Nederlandsche Bank (DNB) – the central bank of the Netherlands – and thus a European Central Bank (ECB) Governing Council member. He spoke with Dutch TV programme Nieuwsuur: “I would expect us to continue to gradually reduce interest rates in the coming time, also in the first half of

Via oil price dot com on Twitter: — Expectations I had seen centred on: Headline crude -1.4 mn barrelsDistillates -1.1 mn bblsGasoline -0.02 mn — This data point is from a privately-conducted survey by the American Petroleum Institute (API). It’s a survey of oil storage facilities and companiesThe official report is due Wednesday morning US

Major indices close higher. S&P and Dow new records once again.The USD continues its move lower.Friday has PCE data in the US, but Thursday is full of FedspeakIs a new banking crisis looming in the United States?More from Macklem: We would like to see growth pick up to above 2%Trump: We will put a 100%

The USD is continuing its run to the downside with the greenback trading at new lows for the day vs ALL the major currencies. EURUSD: The EURUSD is trading to a new intraday high of 1.11661. That is just short of the high from yesterday at 1.11665. Move above and the high from Friday at

The inflation data from Australia due today is not the official, complete reading. But, it’s a guide, and its expected to show a fall back into the Reserve Bank of Australia target band of 2 – 3%: Australia CPI preview – CBA expect “Headline inflation in August back within RBA’s target”Australian August Monthly CPI preview

Good morning, afternoon and evening all. Any charts, technical analysis, trade ideas, thoughts, views, ForexLive traders would like to share and discuss with fellow ForexLive traders, please do so: This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

On Friday, the Fed’s favored measure of inflation PCE will be released with expectations of: Core PCE, est 0.2% vs 0.2% last monthPCE headline, Est 0.1% vs 0.2% last monthCore PCE YoY, Est 2.7% vs 2.6% last montPCE headline, Est. 2.3% vs 2.5% last month That will be important as the Fed members and the

BOC Macklem is speaking and says: It is reasonable to expect further cuts in our policy rateThe timing and pace will be determined by incoming data and our assessment of what those data mean for future inflation More: Bank of Canada is pleased to see inflation at 2%, now needs to stick the landing. Continued

Fundamental Overview Gold has been on a sustained bid after the latest Fed’s decision as real yields fell further due to inflation expectations rising faster than nominal yields. There hasn’t been a bearish catalyst in the meantime to stop the bullish momentum, but watch out for strong US data this and the next week as

While Silicon Valley Bank and Signature Bank’s failures may seem like old news, concerns about deeper problems in the banking sector that could harm the overall economy and S&P 500 are still alive. Despite the growth in the sector’s stocks following last week’s Federal Reserve decision, experts warn that one move will not solve all

German DAX futures +0.5%UK FTSE futures +0.4% This follows up on the gains from yesterday, in part helped by softer PMI readings driving up ECB rate cut odds. As things stand, interest rate futures are showing traders pricing in ~82% odds of a rate cut in October. Looking elsewhere, US futures are more muted despite

Axios: Hezbollah has urged Iran to launch an attack on Isreal.Iran has so far refrained the overtures. Accordng to Axioa, two Israeli officials said Iranian officials told their Hezbollah counterparts that “the timing isn’t right” for launching an attack against Israel because the Iranian president Masoud Pezeshkian is currently in New York for the UN

ECB’s Nagel is on the wires saying that: We assume German economy will slowly pick up some momentum again.The main factors behind Germany’s growth has been the energy crisis, weak foreign demand and high inflationThe consequences of high inflation have depressed economic activity.Many consumers have held back on spending. The tight monetary policy is dampening

The major European indices are ending the day with gains. The gains are not on par with the China and Hong Kong gains of 4% but German Dax up 0.75% and France’s CAC up 1.28% is not bad. The closing levels show: German DAX, +0.75%France’s CAC +1.28%UK’s FTSE 100 +0.28%Spain’s Ibex +0.33%Italy’s FTSE MIB +0.60%

More from BOC Macklem: We would like to see growth pickup above the 2%If there is further adjustment in the labor market it would probably be more unemployment The USDCAD has not gotten any boost from comments from BOC Macklem. The price in fact is trading to new lows (higher CAD) and is pips away

Earlier today, I discussed the latest market moves and economic trends with Dale Pintert at Forex Analytix. We dive into today’s China’s stimulus, its impact on commodities, and what it means for global marketsI share my thoughts on the “soft landing” narrative and why it’s currently driving marketsWe explore geopolitical risks, including Middle East tensions

FOMC board member Michelle Bowman is speaking and says: Dissent to half-point cut warranted by inflation still above target, “measured pace of cuts more appropriate” Core inflation remains uncomfortably above 2% target with upside risks given ongoing growth in spending, wages Recalibrating policy appropriate given progress on inflation, but should not declare victory yet Upside

Geopolitics from the Sky News: Israel Army is reporting the killing of Ibrahim al-Qubaisi, Hezbollah rocket and missile commander.. This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

High yield: 3.52%WI level at the time of the auction: 3.520%Tail: 0.0% vs 6 month average of -0.3 basis pointsBid to cover: 2.59X vs 6 month average at 2.66XDirects (domestic demand): 19.6% vs 6 month average of 19.9%Indirects (international demand): 67.8% vs 6 month average of 66.8%Dealers 12.8% vs 6 month average of 13.2% Auction

The USD is moving lower after the weaker than expected economic data. Richmond had composite index came in at -21 verses -19 last month. The consumer confidence came in at 98.7 versus 105.6 last month and 104.0 estimate. With the election forthcoming, it might not be that surprising that there is weakness in survey’s from

That’s a pretty big comment from Trump. It would go directly against the new NAFTA deal — or USMCA — that he negotiated. In that deal, 75% of the value of a vehicle must come from North America, a certain percentage of employees need to earn at least $16/hour and 70% of the steel and

For what it is worth (which when talking about 2050, I find it worth little): OPEC extends oil demand outlook to 2050 and says there is no peak demand on the horizon. OPEC raises oil demand forecasts for medium term to 2028 and long term to 2045 – 2024 World Oil Outlook. OPEC puts total

The AUDUSD is moving higher today. The RBA kept rates unchanged: The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) was the latest central bank to announce its policy objective when it left its cash rate unchanged at 4.35% in September 2024, as expected. The central bank noted that current policy remains restrictive and is working as anticipated,

Here’s a recap on the month of major central bank policy decisions so far: Bank of Canada interest rate decision: Rates lowered by 25 basis pointsECB cuts deposit rate by 25 bps in September monetary policy decision, as expectedFederal Reserve September interest rate decision: 50 basis point cutBOE leaves bank rate unchanged at 5.00%, as

Prior month 103.3Consumer confidence xxx.x vs 104.0 estimatePresent Situation Index vs. 134.4 last monthExpectations Index vs 82.5 last month. In August, the expectations index was above 80 for the second consecutive month. Costco shares are trading down -1.23% had $905.39 on a downgrade ahead of earnings on Thursday after the close. Truist downgraded the company

An October cut isn’t totally excluded.Too early to have strong view on October meeting.It will be easier to decide on cut in December.Services inflation needs to slow further. This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at www.forexlive.com.

The USDCAD is also moving lower and following the USD bias. The price is trading at the lowest level since September 6 when the price bottomed at 1.3465. That level was just above the August 30 low price reached at 1.34643 (double bottom). The low price today has reached 1.3474 so far. Buyers looking to

The NASDAQ index is now trading up 107 points or 0.60% at 18082. The rise takes the price within 3.25% of it’s all time high reached at 18671.07. Both the Dow and the S&P are higher as well and on pace for another record high close. This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

The NZDUSD is following the US dollar lower and in the process has moved up to test the 2024 high price which was reached on the first day of the trading year (January 2, 2024). That high price was at 0.63248. The high price today has reached 0.6325 – a fraction of a PIP above

People’s Bank of China USD/CNY reference rate is due around 0115 GMT. The People’s Bank of China (PBOC), China’s central bank, is responsible for setting the daily midpoint of the yuan (also known as renminbi or RMB). The PBOC follows a managed floating exchange rate system that allows the value of the yuan to fluctuate

Must watch market developments with strong sense of urgencyIt would be desirable for exchange rate to move stably reflecting fundamentals He’s more or less been saying the same thing since Friday last week from his press conference. So, nothing new here. This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

That is tight. An average of polls published by fivethirtyeight.com shows Harris at 48.3% vs Trump 45.6% FYI: This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

It is important to understand what is driving market from a technical perspective. Technical levels give traders bias defining levels, risk defining levels and targets. Kickstart video I take a look at three of the major currency pairs – the EURUSD, USDJPY and GBPUSD – from a technical perspective and explain why the levels are

The NZDUSD is moving higher today after the dip lower in the Asian/early European session found willing buyers near the 100 hour MA. Buyers have been leaning near that MA over the last 6 or so trading days. There have been some small break (on Friday and also on Thursday), but not for long. Today’s

Did not explicitly consider a rate hike at this meetingFormat of discussion has changedBut recent data has not materially affected policy outlookProgress on underlying inflation likely remained slow in Q3Monthly inflation data is quite volatile (when asked about the data tomorrow)Headline CPI could come in within 2% to 3% target bandBut that is not really

As the North American session begins, the CAD is the strongest and the JPY is the weakest. The USD is mixed to start the day with US stocks marginally higher and yields continuing their run to the upside despite the Fed rate cut of 50 basis points last week to recalibrate rates given the inflation

If anything is likely to prompt further stimulus in China this is probably it. Youth unemployment in China can have unwanted political repercussions for the Chinese Communist Party. China’s youth unemployment rate in August, according to National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) data released Friday: ages 16 to 24, and not in school,18.8%from 17.1% in July

Earthquake with a preliminary magnitude 5.9 hit near Torishima Islands tsunami warning issued for Izu islands Torishima Islands are remote volcanic islands This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

It is hard for the Fed to measure impact of immigration on the labor market This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

Prior 4.35%Latest data does not change previous assessment that policy is restrictive and working as anticipatedThe outlook remains highly uncertainInflation is still some way above the midpoint of the 2% to 3% target rangeReturning inflation to target is the priorityUnderlying inflation remains too highPolicy will need to be sufficiently restrictive until confidence returns that inflation

Prior month -19Services index -1 vs -11 last monthManufacturing shipments -18 vs -15 last month. Other details: Employment -22 versus -15 last monthWages 15 versus +14 last monthPrices paid 3.36 versus 2.45 last monthPrices received 1.57 versus 1.87 last monthNew orders -23 versus -26 last monthBacklog of orders -16 versus -27 last monthCapacity utilization -20

The USDCHF on Friday and again yesterday stalled against the 38.2% retracement of the move down from the mid-August high at 0.85172. The inability to get above that level gave the sellers a go-ahead to push lower. That downside momentum continued through support near 0.8475 where a cluster of moving averages were near converged. Today

For all the talk about not commenting on the exchange rate, he is definitely touching on a bit of a sensitive topic here. I wouldn’t mind him saying that speculative positioning being what led to the surging run higher in USD/JPY until July. But to say that the unwinding has run its course? Hmm. Is

People’s Bank of China Governor Pan Gongsheng says will cut RRR by 50bp will cut mortgage rates also This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

Prior month 0.5% revised from 0.4%Home prices MoM 0.3% versus 0.4% expectedHome prices YoY 5.9% versus 5.9% expected (prior month 6.5%). This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

Prior month 103.3 revised to 105.6Consumer confidence 98.7 vs 104.0 estimatePresent Situation Index 124.3 vs. 134.4 last monthExpectations Index 81.7 vs 82.5 last month. In August, the expectations index was above 80 for the second consecutive month. This month’s expectations at 81.7 makes it three months in a row about the 80 level. Generally speaking

The price of crude oil has extended to a gain of two dollars at $72.36. That’s up 2.77% on the day. The low price was at $70.47. J.P. Morgan Chase CEO Jaime DImon overnight reiterated his concerns about the growing risks of global instability, emphasizing that geopolitics remains the most significant threat to the world

Sector Overview The US stock market exhibits diverse performance today, with notable stability in technology and gains in consumer electronics and cyclicals. The semiconductor segment, spearheaded by Nvidia (NVDA), shows a positive trend, climbing 0.83%. Meanwhile, the consumer electronics giant, Apple (AAPL), rejoices in a healthy boost of 1.18%, making it one of the day’s

The European session is pretty empty on the data front with just the German IFO as the main highlight. The IFO index is similar to the German Composite PMI as they are correlated, so it shouldn’t be a big deal. In the American session, the focus will be on the US Consumer Confidence report as

The US stocks are higher in early US trading, but gains are relatively modest: Dow industrial average +76 points or 0.17% 42196.68S&P up 4.85 points or 0.09% at 5723NASDAQ index up 33 points or 0.19% at 18008 The small-cap Russell 2000 is up 7.72 points or 0.35% at 2227.96. This article was written by Greg

I’m very encouraged that the path of inflation is downwardsHence, I do think the path for interest rates will be downwards as well, but graduallyMy best guess is interest rates will settle at a “neutral rate” Bailey adds to the mix of central bank heads with some commentary already so far today. The headline is

But without a pre-set schedule and taking into account various uncertaintiesAppropriate to raise rates if trend inflation heightens in line with forecastMarket developments are still unstableWatching US and overseas economic outlook with strong sense of urgencyCan afford to spend some time in scrutinising market moves and recent developmentsConsumption activity likely to increase moderately as household

Despite all the ups and downs this year, the pair had been mostly trading within a band of roughly 300-400 pips in 2024. But with the latest upside move since two weeks ago, buyers might be eyeing a stronger breakout here. That especially with the dollar keeping more sluggish amid the diverging stance between the

Prior 86.6Current conditions 84.4 vs 86.0 expectedPrior 86.5Expectations 86.3 vs 86.4 expectedPrior 86.8 Slight delay in the release by the source. The German business climate declined further in September, with the current conditions reading also highlighting continued pressures on the economy presently. The outlook reading is also dropping further, down to its lowest since February

Eurostoxx +1.0%Germany DAX +0.8%France CAC 40 +1.3%UK FTSE +0.5%Spain IBEX +0.4%Italy FTSE MIB +0.6% This comes with US futures also nudging a little higher in the past hour, now seen up 0.2%. The positive mood in Europe comes after the better start to the week yesterday, as investors react to heightened odds of an ECB

ECB’s Muller: An October cut isn’t totally excludedThe central bank bonanza wraps up with the SNB later this weekGermany September Ifo business climate index 85.4 vs 86.0 expectedBOJ governor Ueda says unwinding of speculative yen positions has likely run its courseEuropean equities open higher as the positive mood keeps upWhat are the main events for

We are not thinking of what size we might eventually cut rates byWill only discuss how big those moves will be when the time comesIf our rates are steady while others cut, it supports the Australian dollarNot discussed possibility of government overruling RBA on policy decisionsEven if headline inflation returns to 2% figure, it does

ANZ-Roy Morgan Australian Consumer Confidence survey for the week +0.8pts to 84.9 highest since January 2023 ANZ say the jump might be due to last week’s better than expected jobs data. As I noted at the time: The headline jobless rate has not disappointed. And the headline employment addition appears very strong indeed, once again.

Fundamental Overview Last week, the Fed finally started its easing cycle and decided to do it with a 50 bps cut. The market was already leaning towards a 50 bps move, so it wasn’t a surprise. The larger cut was framed as kind of a risk management move with the dot plot showing two more

The Reserve Bank of Australia (due at 0030 US Eastern time) is expected to leave its cash rate unchanged today: I posted last week on expectations for slowing inflation: Australia CPI preview – CBA expect “Headline inflation in August back within RBA’s target”Australian August Monthly CPI preview – Westpac expect 2.7% y/y for the monthly

Fundamental Overview Tonight, the PBoC announced lots of easing measures ranging from short to long term interest rates. This was the catalyst for the copper rally. Things are looking better and better for the market as we’ve also got a 50 bps cut from the Fed last week. Central bank easing generally leads the manufacturing

Imagine if the RBA did actually look like that. Sadly, the iconic signage area has even been converted to a bus stop and covered in scaffolding. Le sigh. Anyway, the Australian central bank is going to be announcing its latest policy decision later. But barring any major surprises, it should be a non-event. Inflation continues

Both the Shanghai Composite and CSI 300 indices are up 2.4% on the day while the Hang Seng is up by 3.3% ahead of the lunch break later. That comes as the PBOC unveiled more easing measures earlier, after not doing so at the end of last week. However, the key caveat here is that

Japan preliminary PMIs, manufacturing slipping deeper into contraction, services improving a little. Manufacturing PMI 49.6 prior 49.8 Services 53.9 prior 53.7 Composite 52.5 prior 52.9 Snippet from the report commentary, price pressures will be welcomed by the Bank of Japan: expansion in business activity remained services-led in September, where the rate of increase strengthened to

People’s Bank of China Governor Pan Gongsheng: must coordinate monetary and fiscal policiesmust support steady recovery of prices in the economyby year end we might cut RRR rate furtherafter RRR cut financial weighted ratio for large banks will be reduced to 8%MLF will be lowered by 0.3%LPR will be lowered by 0.2 to 0.25% Earlier:

Al Jazeera is reporting that: Iran Pres. says US policy support and encourage Israel its open war Iran reaffirms that an open regional war will not be in the interest of anyone in the region and in the world Iran has sufficient capacity to strike IsraelReady to work to reduce tensions in the region, but

Fundamental Overview Tonight, the PBoC announced lots of easing measures ranging from short to long term interest rates. This was the catalyst for the copper rally. Things are starting to look better for the market as we’ve also got a 50 bps cut from the Fed last week. Central bank easing generally leads the manufacturing

Morgan Stanley has recommended that investors rethink their preference for Chinese stocks listed on the mainland in favor of those traded internationally. According to a Bloomberg (gate) report, this change in outlook is driven by shifts in the key factors that have traditionally made onshore Chinese shares attractive. Morgan Stanley says “The two biggest supporting

There is a press conference underway re support for the economy: PBOC and other senior economic officials press briefing underway PBOC Gov has announced the Bank will cut RRR and mortgage rates: People’s Bank of China will soon cut reserve requirement ratio by 50bp Also announcing now that the 7-day RR will be cut to

The Swiss National Bank is expected to cut its benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points on Thursday, from 1.25% to 1.0%. Reuters poll shows: 30 of 32 economists expect a 25 bp cut1 expect a 50 bp cut1 expects no changefurther ahead, 18 of 32 expect a hold in December Factors cited include: SNB

There have been stimulus announcements made: PBOC and other senior economic officials press briefing underwayPeople’s Bank of China will soon cut reserve requirement ratio by 50bpPeople’s Bank of China will soon cut 7-day reverse repo to 1.5% from 1.7% Multiple rate cuts said to be on the way, which is good news. The attendees at

The USDJPY has had its share of ups and downs in trading today. In the NY session the high reached up toward resistance at 144.58.That level represents the 50% of the pair trading range from the January 2023 low (see the chart above). The high price in the Asian session reached 144.45 which also was

People’s Bank of China Governor says yuan has a relatively solid and stable foundationICYMI – PBoC says it will cut rates, but gave no indication of a timeline for whenPeople’s Bank of China Governor says must support steady recovery of prices, economyPBOC sets USD/ CNY mid-point today at 7.0510 (vs. estimate at 7.0495)People’s Bank of

PBOC Governor Pan Gongsheng was remarking on the yuan re the Fed rate cut. Fed rate cut eased external pressure on the yuan exchange rate yuan has a relatively solid, stable foundation It was only a few weeks ago that the PBOC was terrified of excessive weakening of the yuan. The Bank managed the currency

The USDCHF has extended to the downside after holding the 38.2% of the move down from the mid-August high at 0.85172. As outlined in the video from earlier today, if the price could get below the cluster of MAs defined by the 100/200 hour MAs and the 100 bar MA on the 4-hour chart between

Financial Times (gated) in brief on what PM Staremr will be saying in his speech Tuesday: tough decisions are needed for UK national renewalthere are no easy answerswill warn of more pain to come This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

S&P and Dow industrial average close at record levelsCrude oil futures is settling $70.37More Geopolitics: Iran Pres says US policies support & encourage IsraelGeopolitics: Israeli military is now targeting BeirutEuropean equities end mixed, US shares edge higherMore from Goolsbee: Until the rate, falling inflation has meant Fed has been tighteningFed’s Goolsbee: ‘Many more cuts’ likely

Australian Treasurer Chalmers will hold a press conference after the RBA statement later today. Chalmers at 3pm Sydney time 0100 US Eastern time0500 GMT Chalmers has previously criticised the central bank as having smashed the economy with high interest rates. I suspect he’ll be deflecting more blame today. — On the Reserve Bank of Australia:

Top Chinese financial officials PBOC governor Pan GongshengNFRA director Li YunzeCSRC president Wu Qing Press conference underway. Related to financial support for economic development. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

JP Morgan remark on US stock market strength, with the view that stocks will continue to find support from the macroeconomic environment. While there may be short-term volatility their expectations is for stocks to move higher still. JPM cite: US consumer is in a strong positionsome individuals are feeling the effects of accumulated inflation, but

The Reserve Bank of Australia statement is coming at 0030 US Eastern time, 0430 GMT. Governor Bullock will hold her press conference an hour later. Expectations are unanimous for an on hold decision. ANZ, in its preview, say they expect the RBA Board to consider hiking the cash rate today, but to settle with an

I posted earlier on what the PBoC says they are going to do: People’s Bank of China will soon cut reserve requirement ratio by 50bpPeople’s Bank of China will soon cut 7-day reverse repo to 1.5% from 1.7% In brief: will cut reserve requirement ratio for banks by 50bpwill cut 7-day reverse repurchase rate from

The Reserve Bank of Australia will announce its latest decision today at 2.30 pm Sydney time 0430 GMT0030 US Eastern time Expectations are unanimous for ‘on hold’: Reserve Bank of Australia meeting today – preview – on hold expectedRBA meeting – preview – to leave the cash rate on hold at 4.35% When will the

The Reserve Bank of New Zealand have issued a list of upcoming speeches by senior official.s A note for the diary! Monday, 14 October at 9.15amGovernor Adrian Orr will speak about improving Māori access to capital Tuesday, 15 October 2024 at 11amDeputy Governor Christian Hawkesby will speak about financial stability Wednesday, 16 October 2024 at

The price of gold hit its highest ever on Monday, and UBS is looking for higher to come. Anal 1. The Federal Reserve’s recent 50-basis-point rate cut has boosted enthusiasm for gold by reducing the opportunity cost of holding the non-yielding asset. This is expected to be the start of a larger easing cycle, with

US stocks are closing with modest gains. Even with the small gains, the S&P and Dow industrial average are closing at record levels. A snapshot of the closing levels shows: Dow industrial average rose 61.29 points or 0.15% at 42124.65S&P index rose 16.02 points or 0.28% and 5718.57NASDAQ index rose 25.95 points or 0.14% and

Good morning, afternoon and evening all. Any charts, technical analysis, trade ideas, thoughts, views, ForexLive traders would like to share and discuss with fellow ForexLive traders, please do so: This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

The price of crude oil futures are settling down -$0.63 or -0.89% at $70.37. The low price for the day reached $69.52 while the high price was at $71.78. At session lows, the price is at its rising 200-hour moving average (green line on the chart below). The price rebound moved up to test its

The USDCAD last week had some buying against the 100 bar MA on the 4-hour chart last week (currently at 1.35548) and also some failed breaks that quickly failed. In trading today, that MA did hold support in the last Asian Pacific/early European market and rallied. However, on the topside, the 100/200 hour MA held

Prior 52.9Manufacturing PMI 44.8 vs 45.6 expectedPrior 45.8Composite PMI 48.9 vs 50.5 expectedPrior 51.0 The euro is meeting fresh lows for the day as this just confirms that Eurozone business activity contracted towards the end of Q3. The one-off boost in France in August has much to do with it but overall, manufacturing conditions also

Earlier today in the kickstart video, I spoke about the GBPUSD price action and the next target. As a review, I said the following: At the time, the price was trading at 1.3324. So what happened? The price did move above the 1.3338 and the price did move to the swing area high going back

The AUDUSD has been trying to extend to the upside over the last few trading days but has seen resistance even thoughnew highs have been made. Today is another try. The price has extended above the high price from last weekend at 0.6838. Also, it has moved above the August high price at 0.6823. Both

We won’t declare mission accomplished on inflation.The labour market is strong, want to keep it that way.Fed policy is still in a net tight position.An uptick in unemployment is a bigger risk than inflation.There is lots of ambiguity around what the neutral rate level is.I expect smaller steps going forward for the Fed.A 50 bps

Services PMI 52.8 vs 53.5 expected and 53.7 prior.Manufacturing PMI 51.5 vs 52.5 expected and 52.5 prior.Composite PMI 52.9 vs 53.5 expected and 53.8 prior. Key Findings: Flash UK PMI Composite Output Index(1) at 52.9 (Aug: 53.8). 2-month low. Flash UK Services PMI Business Activity Index(2) at 52.8 (Aug: 53.7). 2-month low. Flash UK Manufacturing

Major European indices closed mostly higher to start the week, but the gains were modest. The gains and mostly indices come despite weaker S&P/Global PMI flash data. A snapshot of the closing levels show: German Dax, +0.58%France’s CAC, +0.06%UK FTSE 100, +0.36%Spain’s Ibex, +0.38%Italy’s FTSE MIB, -0.24% As European traders look to exit US shares

Geopolitics: Israeli military says it is now targeting BeirutHezbollah also stated it’s top commander Ahmed Wahbi was killed during Israelis strike on Beirut suburbsIsreal attack targeted Hezbollah leader Ali Karaki Iran warned Israel of “dangerous consequences” following the strikes on what Israel said were Hezbollah targets that killed more than 270 people in Lebanon on

Earlier today, the European surveys from S&P Global missed the mark, briefly weighing on the euro and pound. Those have since rebounded as the risk mood improves. Up next is the US version. The services PMI has been flying high lately and rise to a two-year high. This month, the consensus is for a slight

There is just one to take note of on the day, as highlighted in bold. That being for EUR/USD at the 1.1150 level. It isn’t one that holds much technical significance, but it could put a bit of a floor to price action during the session ahead at least. That with the 100-hour moving average

UBS says that history shows stocks have performed well in periods when the Fed is cutting rates while the US economy is still growing. UBS says last week’s FOMC 50bp rate cut bolstered market sentiment in two main ways: 1. Powell expressed a desire to “recalibrate” monetary policy while the US economy remains strong, adding

Comfortable with 50 bps, shows fed is focused on risks around employment, not just inflationInflation is way down from peak, labor market is at full employmentKeeping rates at decade-high does not make sense when you want things to stay where they areTo reach a soft landing you can’t be behind the curveRates must come down

I posted a heads up on this earlier but ICYMI. Japan’s absence from Asian markets means no physical trading of US Treaasuries and a reduction in forex liquidity. Other FX trading centres; New Zealand, Australia, Hong Kong and Singapore, remain open. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

It reflects progress on inflation, softening of labour marketSees year-end rate at 4.4% and end of 2025 rate at 3.4%; same as median of Fed policymakersBalance of risks have shifted towards risk of further labour market softeningToo soon to declare victory on inflation but disinflation process is on trackPolicy remains tight, though uncertain on how

Fundamental Overview Last week, the Fed finally started its easing cycle and decided to do it with a 50 bps cut. The market was already leaning towards a 50 bps move, so it wasn’t a surprise. The larger cut was framed as kind of a risk management move with the dot plot showing two more

1200 GMT / 0800 US Eastern time UK finance minister Rachel Reeves will give a speech to the Labour Party conference Preview of her speech is here: UK Chancellor Reeves says wants to strengthen and deepen trade ties with the US This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

Sector Overview The US stock market heatmap today highlights mixed performances across various sectors. The technology sector is showing neutral to positive movements with Nvidia (NVDA) gaining 0.30% and Meta (META) rising by 1.33%, indicating some confidence in these tech giants. In contrast, Microsoft (MSFT) saw a slight dip of 0.17%. In the consumer cyclical

The EURUSD moved higher to test the 100 hour MA, but did find willing sellers. The flash PMI was weaker but the inflation data was higher with S&P Global saying, the “prices charged for goods and services are both rising at the fastest rate support six months”. The US yields have moved higher with the

Consumer sentiment is not a good indicator for spending behaviorUntil the recent rate cut, falling inflation has meant that has been tightening policy.We are shifting back to a normal dual mandate mode.We are 100s of basis points above the neutral rate.If conditions continue like this, there are a lot of cuts to come over the

Prior was 55.7 (best in two years)Manufacturing 47.0 vs 48.5 expectedPrior manufacturing 47.9Composite 54.4 vs 54.6 prioraverage prices charged for goods and services rising at the fastest rate since MarchRates of selling price inflation moved up to six-month highs in both manufacturing and services, in both cases running above pre-pandemic long-run averages to point to

I supported a 50 bps cut as a compromise between remaining uncertainty around inflation and risks to the labour market.The economy is returning to normal faster than expected so policy should as well.Recent data show convincingly that the US economy is on a sustainable path to price stability.A half-point cut at this meeting does not

Prior was +0.2%Prices were unchanged in 13 of the 27 census metropolitan areas Prices increased in 8 Prices declined in the remaining 6The index was unchanged on a year-over-year basis in August following a 0.1% increase in July The Canadian housing market is wilting at the moment and it’s a race to see whether the

Manufacturing PMI 40.3 vs 42.4 expected and 42.4 prior.Services PMI 50.6 vs 51.0 expected and 51.2 prior.Composite PMI 47.2 vs 48.2 expected and 48.4 prior. Key findings: HCOB Flash Germany Composite PMI Output Index(1) at 47.2 (Aug: 48.4). 7-month low. HCOB Flash Germany Services PMI Business Activity Index(2) at 50.6 (Aug: 51.2). 6-month low. HCOB

The USDCHF has been consolidating since August 20 or so with most of the price action between 0.8400 and 0.8537. That’s not alot of trading range over that time period. Buyers and sellers are battling it out. In the shorter-term, the price action on Friday and again today stalled against the 38.2% retracement of the

This is just a bit of a heads up as the economic calendar on Thursday will be highlighted by a speech from Fed chair Powell. He will be delivering the opening remarks at the 10th annual US Treasury Market Conference. However, his remarks will be ones that are pre-recorded. And based on the agenda, is

As is usual for a Monday morning, market liquidity is very thin until it improves as more Asian centres come online … prices are liable to swing around, so take care out there. Indicative rates, barely changed from late Friday at this stage EUR/USD 1.1161USD/JPY 143.85GBP/USD 1.3318USD/CHF 0.8501USD/CAD 1.3566AUD/USD 0.6806NZD/USD 0.6235 This article was written

Weaker flash PMI data sent the EURUSD and GBPUSD sharply lower in the European session, but while the GBPUSD retraced all this declines, the EURUSD remains lower. Technically,, the EURUSD fell below its 100 hour moving average of 1.11382. Recall on Thursday and Friday of last week, the price based against that moving average and

Recent dots show a fair amount of dispersion in opinion at the Fed.The range of views about the path forward and debate over neutral is robust.The Fed is not in mad dash to neutral, in favour of not rushing to judgement or assuming the job is done on inflation.As long as consumer spending continues, there

The major indices are trading mixed to start taking new trading day and the new trading week: Dow industrial average -2.89 points or -0.01% at 42060.47S&P index up 5.69 points or 0.10% at 5708.24NASDAQ index up 23.13 points or 0.13% at 17971.45. The small-cap Russell 2000 trading up 5.69 points or 0.26% at 2233.59 Microsoft

Deutsche Bank expects the euro to fall back to 1.08 by year end. They mainly take issue with the dollar side of the trade, noting that most G10 central banks are priced to converge to a terminal rate of around 2-3%. By virtue of the Fed having the most to cut, the dollar is priced

Let’s take a step towards neutral, recognizing that we’re tightLots of ambiguity around what neutral level isFed policy is still in net tight positionLabor market is strong, want to keep it that way50 bps was a meaningful step to get process movingNo one on the committee was saying we should be holding ratesThere’s a lot

The dollar is trading a little mixed on the day, keeping higher against the yen but lower against the aussie. The former continues with the moves from the end of last week, with a slight bounce in bond yields also helping. 10-year Treasury yields are up another 2.6 bps to 3.741% currently. As for the

Headlines: Euro pressured lower as traders step up ECB rate cut odds for OctoberFrance September flash services PMI 48.3 vs 52.5 expectedGermany September flash manufacturing PMI 40.3 vs 42.4 expectedEurozone September flash services PMI 50.5 vs 52.1 expectedUK September flash services PMI 52.8 vs 53.5 expectedUK September CBI trends total orders -35 vs -21 expectedWeekly

Recent dots show a fair amount of dispersion in opinion at the FedFed is not in a ‘mad dash’ to neutral, in favor of not rushing to judgment or assuming job is done on inflationDoes not expect to see unemployment increase much furtherLabor market is ‘not flashing red’, optimistic about the future This article was

As the North American session begins, the AUD is the strongest and the EUR is the weakest. The USD is mostly, but modestly lower. Overnight in China, authorities announced that PBOC Governor Pan Gongsheng will hold a press conference on financial support for economic development. Shortly after that announcement, the PBOC cut the 14-day reverse

Eurostoxx +0.1%Germany DAX +0.2%France CAC 40 -0.1%UK FTSE flatSpain IBEX +0.2%Italy FTSE MIB -0.1% This comes as US futures have also pared its earlier gains, keeping flattish now. USD/JPY has also turned flat as it retreats back to just under 144.00 on the day. The high earlier in Asia touched 144.45 but that wasn’t sustained

Prior -22 UK factory order book balance fell to the lowest since November 2023 as export demand is also seen falling at the fastest pace since December 2020, according to CBI. The export order book balance plunged to a reading of -44, down from -22 in August, highlighting continued woes in the manufacturing sector. This

Monday is a bank holiday in Japan in observance of Autumnal Equinox Day. Later in the day we’ll see the release of flash manufacturing and services PMI data for the eurozone, the U.K. and the U.S. On Tuesday, the focus will shift to the Reserve Bank of Australia’s monetary policy announcement. In the U.S., key

France September flash services PMI 48.3 vs 52.5 expectedGermany September flash manufacturing PMI 40.3 vs 42.4 expected For some context, these odds have moved up quite a fair bit from ~35% right after the Fed decision last week. Things are certainly heating up for the ECB despite policymakers saying that they would prefer to skip

Prior 55.0Manufacturing PMI 44.0 vs 44.3 expectedPrior 43.9Composite PMI 47.4 vs 50.6 expectedPrior 53.1 Ouch. The jump in August was largely expected to be a one-off amid the boost in demand from the Paris Olympics. But it has faded off rather quickly with little to no spillover impact to September whatsoever. The headline reading is