- The more headline inflation continues to slow, that will help expectations
- Torn between the fact that inflation has been above target for more than 5 years versus focusing on the fact that it jumped in two separate episodes and is now slowing
- Businesses generally don’t like to do layoffs and would prefer to avoid it, even if they are cautious about hiring
- Fed is not in a forward-guidance place right now
- Do not think the labor market is as strong as data indicate, consider it vulnerable
- Businesses that sell to busienss are confident in pricing power, businesses that sell to consuemrs are less sure they can pass along costs
- AI use cases do not seem mature enough yet to lead to large reductions in head count
Barkin doesn’t have much conviction and generally that leads to keeping policy unchanged.
This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.
