Saudi crude oil exports to China are set to fall in September by about 3 mn barrelsRBA’s Hauser says there is a risk the unemployment rate could rise faster than assumedChina’s struggling economy overly reliant on exports, 2nd trade war with Trump a nightmareChina doubling down on its overcapacity strategy, digging the economy into a deeper holeReserve Bank of New Zealand interest rate decision a very close call – why they could cutAUD/USD: Where we are at and where we are goingUBS expect EUR/USD to gradually rise as US exceptionalism ebbsPBOC sets USD/ CNY reference rate for today at 7.1458 (vs. estimate at 7.1777)OPEC is set to release its latest, August, monthly report later today (Monday)US Abraham Lincoln Carrier Strike Group accelerating towards Middle EastShould the Federal Reserve listen to its elders and cut rates now, before September?UBS hold steady forecasting S&P 500 to 5,900 by year end, and higher to 6,200 by June 2025UK employers plan lowest pay rises in two yearsNew Zealand – RBNZ shadow board split on Reserve Bank interest rate cutOil traders – Israel placed on High Alert, indications suggesting imminent Iran attackBank Credit Analyst still forecasting S&P 500 collapse to 3,750Former BOJ board member Sakurai says Bank of Japan will not be able to hike again in 2024Weekend – Bank of America forecast no US recession, Fed rate cuts in September & DecemberToday is a market holiday in Japan – closed on Monday, August 12, 2024Trade ideas thread – Monday, 12 August, insightful charts, technical analysis, ideasMonday morning open levels – indicative forex prices – 12 August 2024CIBC tweaks rate cut forecasts, sees earlier easing from Fed and Bank of CanadaWeekly Market Outlook (12-16 August)Newsquawk Week Ahead: US CPI & Retail Sales; UK CPI & Jobs data; Aussie jobs and RBNZFed’s Bowman: Cautious on rate cuts, eyes upside inflation risksForexlive Americas FX news wrap 9 Aug: A dull Friday ends a volatile week
It
was a more subdued session than many of those seen last week in Asia.
USD/JPY began early trading not far from its Friday close, around
146.55, before rising above 147.10. Ex-Bank of Japan monetary policy
board member Sakurai hit the headlines saying he thought the Bank
would be unable to hike again this year due to market volatility
(he’s quite observant) and the low likelihood of a rapid economic
recovery. Sakurai expects a hike around March 2025. USD/JPY has since
fallen back a little and is circa 147.00 as I post.
In
global politics, US
Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin ordered the deployment of a guided
missile submarine to the Middle East, along
with accelerating the pace of deployment of the Abraham Lincoln
carrier group. This is in response to the threat of an imminent
Iranian/Hezbollah/Hamas attack on Israel. Oil is up a little on the
session.
Across
major FX the kiwi $ was a notable gainer. NZD/USD is back above
0.6010.
It
was a market holiday in Japan today.
Bitcoin lost ground:
This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.
