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NY Fed survey on consumer expectations: One year inflation 3.0% vs 3.2% prior

1 year inflation 3.0% vs 3.2% prior3 year inflation 2.9% vs 2.8% prior5 year inflation 2.8% vs 3.0% priorExpected home price rise 3% vs 3.3% priorConsumers see slower price growth for rent, food, medical care, college and gasExpected year-ahead earnings growth best since Sept 2023Perceptions of household financial situation lost ground in JuneThe mean perceived probability of losing one’s job in the next 12 months increased by 2.4 percentage points to 14.8%

The absolute levels aren’t indicative but the trend is. On that front, expectations fell in two of the three timelines and even three-year inflation is below pre-pandemic levels.

Median year-ahead expected price changes decreased for all goods in the
survey, by 0.5 percentage point for gas to 4.3%, 0.5 percentage point
for food to 4.8%, 1.7 percentage points for the cost of medical care to
7.4%, 2.6 percentage points for rent to 6.5%, and 3.1 percentage points
for the cost of a college education to 5.3% (the series’ lowest level
since December 2020).

Perceptions about households’ current financial situations deteriorated
slightly with more respondents reporting being worse off than a year
ago, and fewer respondents reporting being better off. Expectations
about households’ year-ahead financial situations were less dispersed
with fewer respondents expecting to be better off a year from now ago,
and fewer respondents expecting to be worse off.

This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

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