The Iran war sounds like it’s morphing into a battle of economic attrition.
Trump on the weekend said they’re “low-keying it” in an interview with Axios. He indicated that he will let economic pressure on Iran build rather
than launch fresh military strikes, saying the U.S. was only
“semi-negotiating” with Iran. That came after Iran said it wasn’t negotiating with the US at all.
“We are just watching Iran with its huge inflation and the fact they
have no money,” Trump said and highlighted that naval blockade of the country was deepening its financial woes.
“We are low-keying it.”
The comments are the clearest sign yet that he TACO’d on threats to destroy Iranian infrastructure and also that the ‘deal’ that Bessent, Trump and ‘unnamed officials’ repeatedly touted last week was an illusion at best and misinformation at worst.
The newest strategy hits both sides. The USA’s leverage is to squeeze Iran’s economy into negotiations or collapse. Iran’s leverage is to drive the price of oil beyond US and international pain points. Today the market is helping Iran’s case as WTI is up $3.02, or 3.9%, to $81.20.
Obviously things can change with Trump in a heartbeat but I think oil will have to drift at least into the $85-87 range before any kind of Trump rethink comes.
This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.
