FUNDAMENTAL
OVERVIEW
Silver has rallied steadily in the past couple of days as the expectations
for a US-Iran deal grew stronger. In fact, on Tuesday, Qatari mediators said
that the language for a possible US-Iran agreement had been drafted and US
Treasury Secretary Bessent confirmed that an Iran deal could have come as soon
as yesterday and would have included the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz.
The gains started to get trimmed late yesterday though probably because the anticipated timeline for the deal passed without
an announcement. Nevertheless, the hopes for a deal will likely keep the market
supported for now unless we get another escalation.
The next test will come next week with the release of the US CPI report.
The data will be critical for the September FOMC decision and the Jackson Hole
Symposium.
A hot report will likely trigger a selloff in silver, with traders increasing
rate hike bets. A soft report, on the other hand, would reduce further the risk
of Fed tightening and give silver another boost.
SILVER TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – DAILY TIMEFRAME
On the daily chart, we can
see that silver has pulled all the way back to the major downward trendline where
we have also the confluence of the key swing high at 63.20. This should be a technically
strong resistance. The sellers will likely continue to step in around these
levels with a defined risk above the trendline to position for a drop into new
lows. The buyers, on the other hand, will want to see the price breaking higher
to increase the bullish bets into the 71.55 level next.
SILVER TECHNICAL ANALYSIS –
4 HOUR TIMEFRAME
On the 4 hour chart, we now
have an upward trendline defining the bullish structure. If the price pulls all
the way back to the trendline, we can expect the buyers to lean on it with a
defined risk below it to position for a rally into new highs. The sellers, on
the other hand, will look for a break to increase the bearish bets into new
lows.
SILVER TECHNICAL ANALYSIS –
1 HOUR TIMEFRAME
On the 1 hour chart, we might
have a minor support around the most recent swing low at the 61.00 handle. If
the price gets there, we can expect the buyers to step in with a defined risk
below the swing level to keep pushing into new highs. The sellers, on the other
hand, will look for a break to shift the momentum to the downside and target
the trendline around the 57.00 level. The red lines define the average daily range for today.
UPCOMING CATALYSTS
Today, we get the latest
US Jobless Claims figures. Tomorrow, we conclude the week with the US NFP
report.
This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at investinglive.com.
