FUNDAMENTAL
OVERVIEW
Silver has been rallying steadily
since last Tuesday on US-Iran deal hopes and found some further support from a
softer than expected NFP report. The momentum looks to be running out of steam though
and it will likely need support from the US CPI report today to extend the
gains.
The data will be critical for
the September FOMC decision and Fed Chair Warsh’s speech at the Jackson Hole
symposium. The focus will be on the Core CPI M/M measure which is expected at
0.2%.
A hot report will likely
trigger a selloff in the short-term, with traders increasing rate hike bets. A
soft or even in-line report, on the other hand, should reduce further the risk
of Fed tightening and give silver another boost.
SILVER TECHNICAL
ANALYSIS – DAILY TIMEFRAME
On the daily chart, we can
see that silver broke above the major downward trendline and the 63.20 swing high
which is technically a positive signal for a reversal of the trend. The target for
the buyers should be the 71.50 level now.
If the price gets there, we
can expect the sellers to step in with a defined risk above the level to
position for a drop into new lows. The buyers, on the other hand, will want to
see the price breaking higher to increase the bullish bets into the 89.40 level
next.
SILVER TECHNICAL ANALYSIS –
4 HOUR TIMEFRAME
On the 4 hour chart, we
have an upward trendline defining the bullish momentum. The buyers will likely
continue to lean on the trendline with a defined risk below it to keep pushing
into new highs. The sellers, on the other hand, will want to see the price
breaking lower to pile in for a drop into the 60.00 handle next.
SILVER TECHNICAL ANALYSIS –
1 HOUR TIMEFRAME
On the 1 hour chart, there’s
not much we can add here as the buyers will continue to have better risk to reward
setups around the trendline, while the sellers will wait for a break to pile in
for a correction into the 60.00 handle next. The red lines define the average daily range for today.
UPCOMING CATALYSTS
Today, we have the US
CPI report. Tomorrow, we get the US PPI data and the latest US Jobless Claims
figures. On Friday, we conclude the week with the US Retail Sales and the
University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment report.
This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at investinglive.com.
