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Timing the Fed rate cut, unhelpful edition: ‘it is what it is’

When will the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) rate cut come?

September? December? Its like Numberwang but with months.

A note from U.S. economist at Jefferies after Wednesday’s CPI/Fedfest summed up trying to sift through Fed ‘guidance’:

“Powell … wouldn’t be specific about a number of months of good data, or about specific changes in the labor market data that would start to worry them” “Essentially, the guidance boiled down to ‘we’ll know it when we see it’, or to use a direct quote from today’s press conference, ‘it is what it is.'”

The conclusion is policy remains data dependent:

“The data is exceedingly difficult to forecast at the moment, and the Fed lacks confidence to project a path forward for rates,” “The lack of specific guidance is frustrating, but also quite understandable.”US May CPI 3.3% y/y versus 3.4% expected

This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

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