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UBS says China expects an intensifying trade war if Trump wins 2024 election

UBS economist Ning Zhang says China is bracing itself for a trade war with the US under a second Trump presidency.

Local media (gated) carry the UBS analysis:

In an interview with The Australian during a visit to Australia, Mr Zhang said China was bracing itself for a trade war with the US that could harm its economy if Donald Trump won the November election.
And China’s concern about a potentially more hostile relationship with a Trump administration was one of the factors behind its strategy of having a more friendly relationship with other countries such as Australia, New Zealand and the European Union, he said.
“The bottom line is that China wants to make more friends,” he said. “Better bilateral trade has benefits for both sides.”Mr Zhang said Donald Trump’s proposed tariffs on goods from China were significantly higher than the measures he took as president and could potentially cause much more harm to the Chinese economy.
Instead of imposing additional tariffs of 25 per cent on $US250bn ($380bn) of Chinese exports to the US as he did last time, Trump is now threatening to impose a tariff of 60 per cent on all imports from China.
Mr Zhang estimated that this could cut Chinese economic growth – which UBS predicts will come in at around 4.9 per cent this year – by more than one percentage point in 2025.

Just for clarity, the points above are from an interview with the UBS analyst, not the Chinese Premier.

Premier Li Qiang visited New Zealand and Australia. During his visit to Australia Li and Australian Prime Minister Albanese
will co-chair the ninth China-Australia Annual Leaders’ Meeting and jointly attend a China-Australia CEO Roundtable Meeting.

Premier Li Qiang

This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

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