FX Expert Funded

US May non-farm payrolls +206K vs +190K expected

Prior was +272K (revised to +218K)

Details of the May 2024 jobs report:

Two-month net revision -111K vs -15K priorUnemployment rate 4.1% vs 4.0% expectedPrior unemployment rate 4.0%Participation rate 62.6% vs 62.5% priorU6 underemployment rate 7.4% vs 7.4% priorAverage hourly earnings +0.3% m/m vs +0.3% expectedPrior avg hourly earnings +0.4% m/mAverage hourly earnings +3.9% y/y vs +3.9% expectedAverage weekly hours 34.3 vs 34.3 expectedChange in private payrolls +136K vs +190K expectedChange in manufacturing payrolls -8K vs +6K expectedHousehold survey +116K vs -408K priorGovernment jobs +70K vs +43K priorFull time -28KPart time +50K

Fed pricing for year end before the report was for 49 bps of easing with an 80% chance of a Sept cut. USD/JPY was trading at 160.68 ahead of the data.

Afterwards, pricing has ticked up to 50 bps but Sept odds are unchanged. USD/JPY has been all over the place, rising, the falling to 160.33 and now higher at 161.07.

I certainly take it as a dovish report and highlighted that private payrolls were the spot to watch before the data.

This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

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