- There was an all-day negotiation on Tuesday
- The negotiations were good
- Will hit Iran really hard if there is no deal
It’s very on the surface stuff but you get the point. As mentioned previously, we’ve seen all this before.
It all starts with Trump pausing attacks out of “goodwill”, before claiming that a deal is done or something along those lines. Iran then refutes the claim while things are slowly turning in the background. And eventually, it will all lead to some form of agreement to sell the story to markets.
However, will the reality of the situation corroborate with that narrative? That remains to be seen.
The ceasefire deal and/or memorandum of understanding at the end of June played to much hope that the conflict would be over. Yet, here we are again circling back to the same situation after more than a month.
The hope now is that Iran will make some arrangement with Oman (and by proxy the US) to “reopen” the Strait of Hormuz. But as we all know by now, Iran will still maintain control over the strait and it will be a managed “reopening”. The traffic flow will still not be as what it was before the war and there will continue to be threats for the most part. As mentioned before, it is basically a reset and ar return to the below playbook:
This article was written by Justin Low at investinglive.com.
