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We’re not exiting the period in which rate hikes hurt; we’re entering it

Here’s a note from Piper Sandler noting that they have been ‘pounding the table’ on the idea that it’s not taking longer than normal for the effects of Fed hikes to hit the economy.

They have looked at cycles dating back to 1958 at when Fed hikes begin to hit the economy. They note that on average it takes 10 quarters from the start of the rate hiking cycle before a recession starts (with a range of 4-16). The cycle stated in March 2022, meaning it’s now been 10 quarters.

This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

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