US April non-farm payrolls +139K vs +130K expected Canada May employment change +8.8k vs -12.5k expected Top US and China trade officials will meet Monday in London China issues rare earth licenses to suppliers of top 3 US automakers Walmart says the consumer is doing fine Fed’s Harker is doing the farewell rounds: Says FOMC

Comments from Bank of England rate-setter Megan Greene: Most of the near-term hump in inflation is due to one-off factors We expect inflation to continue to come down to target over medium term Our view is that we can look through it but of course that’s a big risk There is a risk people won’t

CIBC economists dug through today’s Canadian employment report and see a jobs market that continuing to gradually weaken. The country added 8.8K compares compared to a -12.5K consensus but unemployment ticked up to 7.0% from 6.9%. “Trade sensitive areas such as manufacturing and transportation & warehousing unsurprisingly showed weakness, but for now that is being

It’s tragic that we’ve gone backwards in aviation in some ways in the past 30 years. The Concorde was a symbol of progress and it would be wonderful if I live to see the return of supersonic commercial aviation. The fastest trip the plane did from New York to London was 2 hours and 52

Nomura is outlining a bearish scenario for USD/JPY in a Friday note. They say the pair could fall to 136 from 144.92 currently by the end of September as Japanese investors repatriate and Washington leans on Tokyo to strengthen the yen. Another factor is a hawkish Bank of Japan and rising local yields, which could

No one has better data than Walmart and the CFO is just out saying that consumer spending has been ‘largely consistent’. I wouldn’t take it as gospel because Target threw up some red flags in earnings and Lululemon did today as well but I certainly wouldn’t bet against WMT. This article was written by Adam

Things are happening quickly on the China front and the US is sending its top-three trade officials in a push to move things along. Trump announces: I am pleased to announce that Secretary of the Treasury Scott Bessent, Secretary of Commerce Howard Lutnick, and United States Trade Representative, Ambassador Jamieson Greer, will be meeting in

I’m open to two vastly diverging views here: 1) Debt and deficits don’t matter because of AI The view is that AI will make people so productive and efficient that government debt won’t be a problem. It’s a positive take on progress in a world that’s now seen many generations of positive impacts from technology.

Nothing on monetary policy from Bowman, who is in charge of bank supervision now. This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

The week began with OPEC adding barrels once again and there was also a mid-week report that Saudi Arabia wanted to keep adding 411K bpd in August and potentially September. Despite all that, oil is having a great week, up 6.5%. Perhaps some of that was relief that OPEC didn’t add even more barrels on

Markets should not expect cuts at every meeting. It may well be the case that we pause in July. Inflation seen below 2% for some time, we have to remain vigilant. Further cuts would be fine-tuning unless we shift out of baseline scenario. Now that the ECB decision is out of the way, we have

Philly Fed President Patrick Harker was a model central banker. He never made waves, was thoughtful and always professional. He’s retiring at month-end and is out with some comments: It’s still possible the Fed can cut later this year Uncertainties make it very hard to divine monetary policy outlook Worries that the quality of economic

Prior +7.4k Unemployment rate 7.0% vs 7.0% expected Prior 6.9% Full-time employment +57.7k vs +31.5k prior Part-time employment -48.8k vs -24.2k prior Participation rate 65.3% vs 65.3% prior Average hourly wages 3.5% vs +3.5% prior This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at www.forexlive.com.

Today’s US jobs report calmed nerves but there are still some dark clouds on the horizon. Business Insider today reports that Amazon has frozen its hiring budget for its main retail business, citing internal emails. The changes only apply to corporate employees, not those working in warehouses or the cloud computing division. However it does

Lowering rates at a time of high savings and low investments has no effect except a monetary effect. I didn’t affect the outcome of the Governing Council meeting with my lone vote. We are currently expansive in our monetary policy. Lagarde said we are at the end of the cycle, I wanted to discuss whether

No plan for Trump call with Musk This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at www.forexlive.com.

Tariff negotiations between the U.S. and Japan are being complicated by the involvement of three senior American officials who hold conflicting views on trade, according to sources close to the talks. The differing approaches of Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick, and U.S. Trade Representative Jamiesol Greer have created confusion and made it

This is the first hint at a timeline for China-US talks, and it’s a rapid one. That’s a good sign that both sides are aiming for some kind of deal before long. But let’s hope that Navarro isn’t invited because that’s not the guy to make a deal with China. This article was written by

China’s central bank unexpectedly injected 1 trillion yuan (around $139 billion) in three-month cash via outright reverse repos on Friday, a break from its usual practice of conducting such operations at the end of the month. The move appears aimed at easing mounting concerns over interbank liquidity, as borrowing costs rise and financial stress builds

Did anyone see the news flash across the screens late in the day in China on Thursday? All there was is that the People’s Bank of China is holding a ‘work meeting’. I saw nothing further despite digging around China sites etc. A “work meeting” held by the People’s Bank of China (PBOC) refers to

Tech and Automotive Surge: Examining Today’s Bullish Market Momentum With a buoyant atmosphere prevailing in the market today, significant advances have been noted in the technology and automotive sectors. The heatmap paints a predominantly green landscape, showcasing positive sentiment and momentum in these industries. 📈 Tech Sector Outperforms: Navigating the Uptrend Microsoft (MSFT) and Oracle

Bank of America remains broadly constructive on the euro, particularly versus the USD, CHF, and JPY, as geopolitical events and fiscal developments in Europe provide tailwinds. While the EUR may look overvalued by traditional models, structural buyers and asymmetric USD risks suggest further gains are possible into the NATO and EU summits later this month.

Shares of Lululemon are down 18% today after the company cut guidance and cited a ‘dynamic macroenvironment’ for the decline. The stock market more broadly certainly isn’t worried about that call with the S&P 500 up 1.2% today. This isn’t a Fed call as the market has trimmed about 8 bps of easing for the

Prior was +177K (revised to +147K) Two-month net revision: versus -58K prior Unemployment rate: 4.2% versus 4.2% expected Prior unemployment rate: 4.2% Unrounded unemployment rate: versus 4.1872% prior Participation rate: 62.4% versus 62.6% prior Average hourly earnings (m/m): +0.4% versus +0.3% expected and +0.2% prior Average hourly earnings (y/y): +3.9% versus +3.7% expected and +3.8%

ThinkMarkets, a global leader in online CFD trading, continues to strengthen its position in the industry by enhancing its proprietary platform with the upcoming launch of Traders’ Gym, its exclusive backtesting tool, on the ThinkTrader mobile app for iOS and Android this Monday. This means traders will soon be able to backtest their trading strategies

If Nasdaq was a mascot This is what it may have looked like now, and what it would say… Not a time to short this market yet. This is an opinion that bulls are in control and where they’re headed. This is not financial advice. Do your own research. As always, any investment or trade

The S&P 500 is above 6000 for the first time since February. I think there are economic risks out there but the price action right now is telling. There is a strong inclination to buy the dip and a belief in a Trump put. Call it at TACO trade or a belief that trade deals

Happy jobs Friday. I’m tempted to dismiss this report as unimportant because the Fed is in a casual wait-and-see stance but a tipping point in an economy is like Hemingway’s description of bankruptcy: Suddenly and then all at once. Lululemon late yesterday cut guidance citing a ‘dynamic macroenvironment’ and shares are down 23% premarket. There

Closing changes on the day: STOXX 600 +0.3% German DAX, -0.1% France’s CAC +0.1% UK’s FTSE 100 +0.1% Spain’s IBEX +0.25% Italy’s FTSE MIB +0.5% On the week: STOXX 600 +0.9 German DAX, +1.2% France’s CAC +0.7% UK’s FTSE 100 +0.7% Spain’s IBEX +0.6% Italy’s FTSE MIB +1.2% There weren’t any fireworks in European stock

Merz spoke with CNN earlier: German Chancellor Merz told CNN that Europe is seeking greater independence from China Speaking with Fox now: US tariffs are threatening our economy We are looking for ways to bring them down Merz not the only one frustrated with tariffs: This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

Prior -0.1% Retail sales y/y +2.3% vs +1.3% expected Prior +1.5% Retail sales remain on a strong trend. The increased fiscal spending and ECB rate cuts should keep the momentum going. This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at www.forexlive.com.

EUR/USD 1.1500 (EUR 3.19bn) 1.1400 (EUR 2.38bn) 1.1300 (EUR 1.28bn) USD/JPY 146.00 (US$ 1.35bn) 142.00 (US$ 2.08bn) GBP/USD 1.3600 (GBP 413mn) 1.3410 (GBP 896mn) USD/CHF 0.8300 (CHF 415mn) 0.8250 (CHF 470mn) USD/CAD 1.4040 (US$ 1.11bn) 1.3600 (US$ 1.13bn) AUD/USD 0.6300 (AUD 1.64bn) NZD/USD 0.5590 (NZD 766mn) For more information on how to use this data,

Deutche Bank is out with a note highlighting that the focus on jobs might be the wrong one. The big change in the US economy is in immigration, which has cratered this year — falling more than 90% from the January 2022 to June 2024 average. They note that this is equivalent to an annual

Adam took a look at the data tto write his NFP preview. Check it out here: May non-farm payrolls preview by the numbers: What does the data say This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

ECB has achieved a soft landing. The best thing for the ECB is to wait and see. The rate cutting is nearly done. Given uncertainty, you can never say it is done. ECB may cut if the economy weakens and inflation falls. There are downside risks to growth. The ECB is quite confident on forecasts.

In the European session, we’ll just have a few low tier releases like industrial production for Germany and France and the Eurozone retail sales. None of the data will impact the current market pricing. In the American session, we have the Canadian Employment data and the US NFP report. The Canadian Employment data is expected

NBC with the report citing Republican senators: Republicans shouldn’t back away from looking at potential changes to Medicare exploring ideas to slash “waste, fraud and abuse” in Medicare, several senators they’re open to looking at other programs, too Sen. Kevin Cramer, R-N.D., said they shouldn’t be afraid of cutting waste in Medicare “Why don’t we

It’s looking like a strong rebound for US stock markets after yesterday’s late-day selloff. Futures levels: S&P 500 +50 points or +1.0% Nasdaq futures +0.9% DJIA futures +0.7% Russell 2000 futures +1.5% That’s a nice rebound. In focus will be Tesla shares after yesterday’s plunge: they’re up 3.8% premarket. Another mover is Lululemon, down 18%

Japan data – April household spending, a substantial miss both y/y and m/m: -0.1% y/y expected +1.4%, prior +2.1% -1.8% m/m expected -0.8%, prior +0.4% Household spending is not benefitting from real wages continuing to fall in Japan. Pay is failing to keep up with inflation, which has been marked by soaring food prices: Japan

JP Morgan update their forecast for the European Central Bank: expects ECB to deliver the next cut in September JP M were previously projecting the next cut in July July 24 the next policy meeting: This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

Via Politico: Trump says on Musk “It’s going very well, never done better.” “Oh it’s okay,” Trump said in a brief telephone call when asked about very public breakup with Musk White House aides scheduled a call Friday with billionaire CEO of Tesla to broker a peace Earlier Musk was making reconciliation noises too: Musk

Australian PM Albanese Will not loosen any rules regarding biosecurity during trade talks with United States Albanese is fresh off a landslide election win. He won’t be chickening out. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

The news that Japan is poised to allow Real Estate Investment Trusts (REITs) to include data center equipment in their portfolios is not new. It was flagged earlier. NTT DATA announced plans for a domestic data center-specialized REIT around this time in 2024. It was set tp launch by March 2026. The REIT inclusion would

The ranges of estimates are important in terms of market reaction because when the actual data deviates from the expectations, it creates a surprise effect. Another important input in market’s reaction is the distribution of forecasts. In fact, although we can have a range of estimates, most forecasts might be clustered on the upper bound

We have won battle against inflation in Europe. We have tools to react if there’s deflation. We will not again see the low rates we saw a few years ago. They are really making victory laps now at the ECB. This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at www.forexlive.com.

Prior +0.4% House prices y/y +2.5% vs +2.9% expected Prior +3.2% Amanda Bryden, Head of Mortgages at Halifax said: “These small monthly movements point to a housing market that has remained largely stable, with average prices down by just -0.2% since the start of the year. The market appears to have absorbed the temporary surge

more to come This snapshot from the ForexLive economic data calendar, access it here. The times in the left-most column are GMT. The numbers in the right-most column are the ‘prior’ (previous month/quarter as the case may be) result. The number in the column next to that, where there is a number, is the consensus

B2PRIME Group, a global financial services provider for institutional and professional clients, has announced the appointment of Stuart Brock as its new Institutional Business Development Manager. He joins the company from oneZero Financial Systems, where he most recently served as Head of Institutional Sales. Stuart brings to B2PRIME more than 15 years of experience in

What is the distribution of forecasts for the US NFP? ECB’s Centeno: We successfully overcome inflationary process BoJ is said to consider smaller reductions to its bond buying Eurozone Q1 final GDP +0.6% vs +0.4% q/q second estimate Eurozone April retail sales +0.1% vs +0.1% m/m expected ECB’s Rehn: Decision-making at each meeting remains key

U.S. Treasury says semi-annual currency report found no major U.S. trading partners manipulated currency to gain unfair trade advantage in four quarters through December 2024 No major trading partners met all three criteria for enhanced analysis during review period Monitoring list of trading partners whose currency practices ‘merit close attention’ includes China, Japan, South Korea,

Agree with Lagarde that cycle almost finished. We can be happy with inflation where it is. Hard to say what’s coming next on rates. We are facing more than average uncertainty. As a reminder, the ECB cut rates by 25 bps yesterday as expected revising growth and inflation lower. The market overreacted a bit when

We successfully overcome inflationary process. Tariffs imposed by US are deflationary. Monetary policy is in a cycle of reducing rates. All data indicate cycle will continue in 2025. Euro Area inflation rate will drop further and approach 1% by the beginning of 2026. I don’t know at what pace rate moves will happen. At this

Decision-making at each meeting remains key. Not committing to any rate path. ECB keeps full freedom of movement at all coming meetings. The ECB will now be much more data-dependent as they are near the lower bound of their estimated neutral range (1.75%-2.25%) This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at www.forexlive.com.

Japan finance minister Kato says monetary policy up to BOJ, when asked about US Treasury report on Japan Earlier: US Treasury says no other country manipulates their own currency In the report the U.S. Treasury Department urged the Bank of Japan to stay the course on monetary tightening, arguing that doing so would help correct

Prior +0.2% GDP Q1 y/y +1.5% vs +1.2% second estimate Prior +1.2% The Q1 GDP got revised higher at every release. Household final consumption expenditure increased by 0.2% both in the euro area and in the EU. Government final consumption expenditure remained stable in the euro area and decreased by 0.1% in the EU. Gross

Ethereum buyTheDip Alert: Entry Levels and Bullish Targets Ethereum traders and investors were presented with an excellent buy-the-dip opportunity approximately seven to eight hours ago, as highlighted in our exclusive alert to the Investing Live Crypto Telegram group. This alert identified a prime entry range for Ethereum (ETH) between $2,436 and $2,440. Previous Successful Call

BoJ is said to consider smaller reductions to its bond buying. BoJ debate centers on quarterly cuts of 200b to 400b yen. BoJ’s new bond-buying plan would last to March 2027. This should be yen negative given that the BoJ would buy more bonds than previously expected under their bond tapering plan. This article was

Prior +0.2% (revised to +0.1%) This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at www.forexlive.com.

TSLA Technical Analysis: Crucial Support Zone Tested After Sharp Decline Tesla (TSLA) shares have seen substantial volatility recently, experiencing a sharp decline, notably falling over 14% on Thursday alone. This significant drop erased approximately $152 billion from the company’s market capitalization, marking an intense sell-off session highlighted by record-setting options trading volume. Key Levels and

Ok, so this humorously depicts President Xi Jinping comfortably enjoying popcorn, observing a heated online feud between Elon Musk and Donald Trump. But what can investors and traders do now? Investors and traders, here are 3 place to start S&P 500 technical analysis after Elon and Trump’s childish keyboard war Trump says on Musk “It’s

Japan is softening its stance on the 25% U.S. auto tariff, according to the Asahi newspaper, and is no longer pushing for a full repeal. Instead, Tokyo is proposing a more flexible framework that would see tariff rates reduced depending on how much a country contributes to the U.S. auto sector. The proposal, reportedly put

Interest rates are now at neutral. Important to keep full flexibility. The ECB estimated that the neutral interest rate range for the Eurozone is between 1.75% and 2.25%. This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at www.forexlive.com.

To receive timely updates and exclusive alerts, join our free Telegram channel: S&P 500 Technical Analysis: Elon vs. Trump Feud Won’t Shake Bulls Just Yet Despite the recent headline-grabbing feud between Elon Musk and Donald Trump, the S&P 500 E-mini futures have held their ground firmly. In a market where sentiment often shifts rapidly due

Trump says call with Xi ‘reached a very positive conclusion’ Trump says call with Xi went ‘very well’ Xi: China and US agree to start a new round of trade talks The Trump-Musk divorce is official Elon takes off the gloves: Says Trump is in the Epstein files US initial jobless claims 247K vs 235K

Musk in a reply tweet to Ackman agrees stronger together: Tensions dialing back a little. US equity index futures bounced upon the reopening of Globex for US evening trade. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

Market expectations are building that Japan’s Ministry of Finance (MOF) may soon adjust its government bond issuance strategy—possibly as early as July—by shifting toward shorter maturities and cutting back on longer-term debt. The move is being considered as yields remain elevated and investor appetite for longer-dated bonds weakens, highlighted by Thursday’s 30-year auction, which saw

German Chancellor Friedrich Merz has signalled a strategic shift in Europe’s economic approach, telling CNN that the continent is actively seeking greater independence from China. The remarks reflect growing concerns in Berlin and Brussels over the risks of overreliance on Chinese supply chains, particularly in critical sectors like technology and clean energy. Merz stressed that

Canada PM Carney spoke with the Premier of China, Li Qiang Carney and China’s Li exchanged views on bilateral relations, including the importance of engagement, and agreed to regularize channels of communication between Canada and China Carney and China’s Li also discussed trade between the two countries Carney and China’s Li committed their governments to

JP Morgan expects ECB to deliver the next cut in September vs prior forecast of July Trump says on Musk “It’s going very well, never done better.” European Central Bank President Lagarde is speaking again on Friday Canada PM Carney spoke with the Premier of China, Li Qiang Musk pulling back in his feud with

Prior +3.0% (revised to +2.3%) Industrial production y/y +1.8% vs -0.4% prior The less volatile three-month on three-month comparison showed that production was 0.5% higher in the period from February 2025 to April 2025 than in the previous three months. This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at www.forexlive.com.

Goldman Sachs expects headline 125k in payroll growth for May jobless rate 4.2% wage growth 0.3% m/m GS say federal government hiring may drag on headline numbers due to workforce cuts – Earlier: May non-farm payrolls preview by the numbers: What does the data say – The data is due at 0830 US Eastern time:

The People’s Bank of China (PBOC), China’s central bank, is responsible for setting the daily midpoint of the yuan (also known as renminbi or RMB). The PBOC follows a managed floating exchange rate system that allows the value of the yuan to fluctuate within a certain range, called a “band,” around a central reference rate,

Good morning, afternoon and evening all. Any charts, technical analysis, trade ideas, thoughts, views, ForexLive traders would like to share and discuss with fellow ForexLive traders, please do so: This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

Prior 108.1 (revised to 107.6) Coincident index 115.5 vs 115.9 prior (revised to 115.8) The drop shouldn’t be surprising given the trade uncertainty. The BoJ continues to focus on trade negotiations and the evolution of inflation before considering another rate hike. This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at www.forexlive.com.

0830 GMT/0430 US Eastern time: Video message by ECB President Christine Lagarde at an event marking the 75th anniversary of the International Confederation of Popular Banks (CIBP) in Marseille, France After we heard from Lagarde on Thursday this doesn’t promise much for traders. ECB cuts key rates by 25 bps in June monetary policy decision,

Iran has reportedly placed large orders for ballistic missile components from China, according to sources familiar with the matter, as it works to strengthen its military capabilities while engaging in nuclear discussions with the U.S. The shipments, which include tons of ammonium perchlorate—a key propellant for missiles—are expected to arrive in Iran in the coming

Consensus estimate +130K Estimate range +75K to +190K April was +228K Private consensus +120K versus +167K prior Unemployment rate consensus estimate 4.2% Prior unrounded unemployment rate 4.1872% versus 4.1519% prior Prior participation rate 62.6% Prior underemployment U6 7.8% Avg hourly earnings y/y exp +3.7% versus +3.8% prior Avg hourly earnings m/m exp +0.3% versus +0.2%

Elon Musk says won’t decommission Dragon spacecraft SpaceX’s Dragon spacecraft serves as the company’s main vehicle for transporting both astronauts and cargo into orbit. Backed by multibillion-dollar contracts with NASA, SpaceX regularly carries NASA crews to and from the International Space Station. These missions are key to helping the agency sustain a continuous human presence

Musk-Trump feud is bringing forth some fresh information and opinions. Trump named in the Epstein files: And now Trump’s tariffs will bring on a US recession. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

People’s Bank of China USD/CNY reference rate is due around 0115 GMT. The People’s Bank of China (PBOC), China’s central bank, is responsible for setting the daily midpoint of the yuan (also known as renminbi or RMB). The PBOC follows a managed floating exchange rate system that allows the value of the yuan to fluctuate

Elon is going nuclear with the Epstein accusation. This divorce just got really nasty. Trump is definitely taking away those subsidies now. The whole market is rolling over as the President of the United States and the world’s richest man fight. Tesla shares are now down 16.5%. This article was written by Adam Button at

With Tesla shares down 12% today, Elon Musk has lost $15.8 billion. Both of them are messaging on their respective social networks: Elon was “wearing thin,” I asked him to leave, I took away his EV Mandate that forced everyone to buy Electric Cars that nobody else wanted (that he knew for months I was

The US ambassador to Canada said Trump and Carney are trying to iron out a framework for a trade and security agreement, according to ambassador Peter Hoekstra This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

The range has been fairly tight in US stock markets today but some sellers just took a leg lower after hitting stops below the earlier double bottom. At 0.4%, the move today isn’t large but it’s disappointing after some seeming progress between the US and China. I warned about a ‘sell the fact’ trade on

Beijing has confirmed that the phone call with Trump is ongoing in a brief statement: So far, we haven’t heard from Trump, who is likely to be the first person to send a message when it’s over. Keep an eye on Truth Social. The Australian and New Zealand dollars are the top performing currencies today,

Prior 46.6 The improvement in overall activity comes as both output and new orders fell at the slowest pace since January. However, employment conditions continue to stutter with job shedding accelerating by its fastest since August 2020. S&P Global notes that: “The construction sector continued to adjust to weaker order books in May, which led

There are quite a number to take note of on the day, as highlighted in bold. The first ones are for EUR/USD at the 1.1380, 1.1400, and 1.1425 levels. The large ones in particular hold closer to the figure level and are likely to hold price action in and around the 1.1400 mark. That especially

US-based employers announced 93,816 job cuts in May, down 12% from 105,441 cuts in April. That figure is also up 47% from the 63,816 job cuts announced in the same month last year. Challenger notes that “tariffs, funding cuts, consumer spending, and overall economic pessimism are putting intense pressure on companies’ workforces.” This article was

The 25 bps rate cut today will bring the deposit rate back to 2.00%. And that will fit in between the estimate for the neutral rate by the central bank, which is roughly around 1.75% to 2.25%. That said, one can reasonably expect Lagarde & co. to continue to not put much emphasis that this

The smoke around a new Canada-US trade deal continues to rise. This was out earlier today but in case you missed it, the Toronto Sun reporter who initially reported a potential deal at the start of the week now has more details, citing ‘multiple sources’. He continues to suggest that the hope is to get

Extent of tariff-driven price push won’t be evident for some time Expects tariffs to start to show through prices in coming months Policy needs to be nimble Optimistic that economic activity can be sustained From Harker (who is retiring this month) Fed must wait and see on next policy steps Entirely possible Fed may face

Some argued for a pause beyond July This is the second sources line with similar reporting, though this is more granular. The market is pricing in a 20% chacne of July cut, so this is no surprise. The baseline for the ECB is now ‘one and done’ with a cut priced for Oct or Dec.

Gold looked like it might break out earlier today on strong European and Asia buying but the selling has been steady in US trade and picked up in the last two hours. The reversal coincides with a turn higher in US Treasury yields and optimism about US-China trade following a call between Trump and Xi.

Inflation will be the first order effect, the other effects will be down the road Haven’t seen the full extent of impact of tariffs on prices This has a hawkish tilt. This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

Goldman Sachs expects 125k in payroll growth for May—in line with consensus—alongside a steady unemployment rate of 4.2%. Wage growth is projected at 0.3% m/m, but federal government hiring may drag on headline numbers due to workforce cuts amid tariff-related uncertainty. Key Points: Nonfarm payrolls: +125k, with solid gains indicated by big data tracking tools.

Mutual respect, peaceful coexistence, cooperation between US and China is in the interests of both parties and conducive to world development and peace Just a point to note that the US-China Track II dialogue is an informal set of discussions between the two countries. So, this is the meeting that Han Zheng is coming from.

It’s still very early in the quarterly cycle so the numbers are volatile. The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the second quarter of 2025 is 3.8 percent on June 5, down from 4.6 percent on June 2. After recent releases from the US Census Bureau, the US Bureau

Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari: labour market is showing some signs of slowing down inflation rate still not back to 2% target there is persistent uncertainty over the economy Fed must stay in wait and see mode to assess how economy responds to the uncertainty the bond and equity markets are sending conflicting signals This

The market was only priced for a 20% chance of a cut in July so this isn’t a surprise. The market is only pricing in one further cut from the ECB in this cycle. Update: Goldman Sachs now following the guidance, shifts its rate-cut call to Sept from July. This article was written by Adam

Fundamental Overview Gold got stuck in a bit of a consolidation this week after the Monday’s rally. Some renewed trade tensions gave the precious metal a boost in the final part of last week but since then things have calmed down. In the bigger picture, gold remains in an uptrend as real yields will likely

HFM (a leading global financial broker under the HFM Group) is setting a new standard in trader education with its in-depth Market Analysis platform and dynamic live market insights via social media. Through a strategic blend of expert analysis and real-time commentary, HFM empowers its global client base to navigate the markets with confidence and

Japan’s chief trade negotiator Akazawa says there is no change in Japan’s stance and they continue to want a full reprieve from US tariffs. Now there is somewhat of an incentive to take a hawkish public stance here as Japan could be headed for a snap election at any point as Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba

People’s Bank of China USD/CNY reference rate is due around 0115 GMT. The People’s Bank of China (PBOC), China’s central bank, is responsible for setting the daily midpoint of the yuan (also known as renminbi or RMB). The PBOC follows a managed floating exchange rate system that allows the value of the yuan to fluctuate

Front-loading of imports makes judging economic activity difficult Expects reversal of import surge in the coming months to signal larger price increases Non-traditional data says might be seeing some moderation in growth but not a significant slowdown Core services inflation still above pre-pandemic rate, progress on core goods has reversed Warn notices of layoffs have

The US and China should increase cooperation and trade The US and China should reduce misunderstandings Told Trump that China is implementing the Geneva agreement Trump is welcome to visit China again It’s important to dispel disruptions to China-US relations China and US agree to start a new round of trade talks Consensus has been

US trade policy remains one of the top three sources of uncertainty for UK businesses But the share of firms seeing that to be the case is now down to 12% (previously 22%) 70% of UK firms reported that changes to US trade policy would have no material impact on their business Firms’ expectations for

Shares of Tesla are down 4.5% today as the fallout from Trump and Musk continues: Would have won Pennsylvania without Musk He disappointed He hasn’t said bad about me but that will be next I don’t know if we’ll have a great relationship anymore We said no to Musk’s NASA choice “Elon and I had

Trump and Xi held a phone call today, according to Xinhua. That should be good news as the topics on calls like this are almost always pre-cleared and scripted. It’s not exactly clear when the call was held or if it’s ongoing now but expect Trump to write about it on Truth Social soon after

📈 Technology Sector: Microsoft’s steady climb lifts spirits Today’s market spotlight is on the technology sector, which shows resilience amidst market fluctuations. Microsoft (MSFT) edges up by 0.42%, underlining a generally optimistic sentiment within the software infrastructure domain. Other players, like Oracle (ORCL) with a significant rise of 1.37%, further emphasize the healthy momentum within

Japan is to present a cooperation package to the US on building a supply network for rare earths. China has restricted the export of seven rare earth elements to the US and the Japanese government is aiming to get concessions from the US with this joint “countermeasure package”. This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta

Call resulted in a very positive conclusion for both countries There should no longer be any questions respecting the complexity of Rare Earth products Our respective teams will be meeting shortly Conversation was focused on trade, no Ukraine or Iran So they’ve scheduled trade talks, which at least means there is some kind of basis

Positive comment, though not surprising. Trump is starting a meeting with Merz: We will have a great relationships with Germany It’s sad what’s happening with Russia-Ukraine Trade talks with China have never been off track Straightened out complexity Straigthened out rare earths In good shape with China on a trade deal I’ll be going to

0745 GMT / 0345 US Eastern time Bank of England policymaker Megan Greene speaks about ‘economics with nontraditional data and analytical tools’ at the ECONDAT conference at King’s College London Bank of England This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

Prior was -140.5B (revised to -138.3B) Goods trade balance -86.97B vs -162.2B prior (prelim was -87.62B) Prior goods trade balance was -147.85B Exports +3.0% vs +0.2% prior Imports -16.3% vs +4.4% prior March was the largest-ever trade balance number as importers front-ran the Liberation Day tariffs. In April, imports fell dramatically and that caused a

Prior -0.5% Retail sales y/y +3.7% vs -2.8% prior In the three months to April 2025, retail sales grew by 0.1% in value and declined by 0.4% in volume compared to the previous three-month period. This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at www.forexlive.com.

Saudi Arabia is pushing for OPEC+ to maintain its faster pace of oil production increases in the coming months, aiming to regain market share rather than support prices, according to sources familiar with the matter. This according to a Bloomberg (gated) report. In summary: Saudis wants at least 411,000 barrels per day added in both

Prior +3.6% That’s a modest beat and even if you exclude large orders, new orders were 0.3% higher than in the previous month. Looking at the breakdown, incoming orders for capital goods rose by 4.1% on the month. And that is slightly offset by declines in incoming orders for both intermediate goods (-3.4%) and consumer

As artificial intelligence becomes more capable, analysts warn that it could eliminate up to half of all entry-level white-collar positions across sectors, driving unemployment as high as 10–20% within the next one to five years. A January World Economic Forum survey, in turn, revealed that 41% of companies expect to reduce headcount due to AI

The New York Fed conducted a survey on tariffs passthrough. They found that “most businesses passed on at least some of the higher tariffs to their customers, with nearly a third of manufacturers and about 45 percent of service firms fully passing along all tariff-induced cost increases by raising their prices.” One caveat is that

Prior was $-0.51 billion (revised to $-2.26 billion) Exports $60.44 billion vs $69.90 billion prior (revised to $67.76 billion) Imports $67.58 billion vs $70.40 billion prior (revised to $70.01 billion) This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at www.forexlive.com.

White House official: Musk’s opposition is ‘one disagreement’ in an otherwise harmonious relationship The White House will not consult every policy decision with Elon Musk Trump is committed to getting the bill passed despite opposition from Musk This is in response to Musk’s oppostiion to Trump’s ‘big bill’ that will skyrocket US debt and fiscal

Well, Japan is at least trying to be creative by further burning bridges with China here. I mean despite both sides having maintained relatively strong economic ties, things have been rather strained politically for many years now. That especially since the territorial dispute in 2010, which eventually led to the embargo on rare earth supplies.

The euro is continuing higher and now up 67 pips on the day, with a portion of that as USD weakness that’s broad based. I’m not confirming a pause The market is only priced for one further 25 bps cut. This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

Australian trade balance data for April 2025 5413mn surplus expected 6000mn, prior 6900mn Exports -2.4% m/m prior +7.6% Imports +1.1% prior -2.2% In March Australian exports jumped ahead of tariffs, and April numbers show a ‘give back’ fall. Gold exports pulled back from record highs in March. — Other data showed Australian Household Spending in

China Caixin / S&P PMI for May 2025 Services 51.1 expected 51.0, prior 50.7 Composite 49.6, dragged down by the soft manufacturing PMI (China Caixin May 2025 Manufacturing PMI 48.3 (prior 50.4!)) prior 51.1 49.6 is the lowest since December 2022 This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

Prelim was +5.7% vs +2.0% prior Productivity -1.5% vs -0.8% prelim Prior productivity +1.7% On face value, there’s some inflationary pressure here with labour costs higher and productivity lower but it’s volatile and lagging data. This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at www.forexlive.com.

Headlines: One last consecutive rate cut for the road by the ECB? What are the expectations for the ECB decision coming up later? China vice president Han Zheng says US-China relations are at ‘critical juncture’ Japan to offer a package on China in tariff talks with the US – Nikkei Suzuki stops production of Swift

Survey data points to some weaker prospects in the near term Higher tariffs, stronger euro to make exports harder Defense and infrastructure investment to bolster growth Boost in defense and infrastructure would raise inflation over the medium term I will update as headlines cross. This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

Prior was 240K Continuing claims 1904K vs 1910K expected Prior 1919K The market has been waiting for a climb in initial jobless claims. This reading is the highest since October, so it’s certainly creeping up and the US dollar has dipped on the data. This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

Prior decision Deposit facility rate 2.00% vs 2.00% expected Prior 2.25% Main refinancing rate 2.15% vs 2.15% expected Prior 2.40% Marginal lending facility 2.50% Prior 2.65% Inflation is currently at around the 2% medium-term target Most measures of underlying inflation suggest that inflation will settle at around 2% target ECB will follow a data-dependent, meeting-by-meeting

The lack of changes in the macro picture and the waiting for the key US data has caused the bullish momentum to wane recently. Growth expectations remain positive and that should keep supporting bitcoin in the bigger picture. The only risk I see ahead for risk assets is a more hawkish repricing in interest rate

DOGE Price Predictions: What’s Next for Dogecoin? Dogecoin (DOGE), the beloved meme-coin that started as a playful joke, continues to capture both investors’ imaginations and market headlines. The past week has brought fresh enthusiasm, speculation, and ambitious predictions. Let’s dive into what top analysts and experts have recently said about DOGE’s future. 🐶 Short-Term Outlook:

Yesterday, we got the news that Saudi Arabia was pushing for OPEC+ to maintain its faster pace of oil production increases in the coming months, aiming to regain market share rather than support prices. The news weighed on the market but was quickly faded as the negative supply news continue to have less and less

Prior 2.8% The data was scheduled for 0545 GMT but was delayed by the source. In any case, the Swiss jobless rate continues to creep higher with this being the highest reading since August 2021. That points to continued softening in labour market conditions since last year. This article was written by Justin Low at

German DAX futures -0.1% UK FTSE futures -0.1% This mirrors the mood in US futures, with S&P 500 futures down 0.1% on the day. In trading yesterday, Wall Street struggled into the close so there’s that to factor in too. Still, it’s been a good week so far for European indices after the slow start

Prior -1.6%; revised to -1.7% Looking at the breakdown, the major drag on the month is mostly due to a fall in energy prices (-7.7%). If you strip that out, euro area PPI actually was up 0.1% in April compared to March. There were increases in the prices for durable consumer goods (+0.1%) and non-durable

TD Securities has updated its forecast for the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA), now projecting two 25 basis point (bps) interest rate cuts in 2025—one in August and another in November—bringing the cash rate down to 3.35%. This revision comes amid signs of economic weakness in Australia. The March 2025 quarter saw GDP growth slow

Major currencies are not doing all too much in the new day with lights changes being observed ahead of European trading. This comes after the dollar fell back again yesterday, continuing the back and forth movements since the start of the week. That is exemplified by USD/JPY which fell over 150 pips on Monday before

Info via The Information: Amazon is developing software for humanoid robots that could eventually take the jobs of delivery workers, according to a person who has been involved in the effort. In doing so, Amazon is paving the way to automate a major part of its operation, the delivery of parcels around the world. This

The ECB is widely expected to cut by 25 bps and bring the policy rate down to 2.00%. The central bank is also expected to revise its economic projections downward for growth and inflation. The market expects the ECB to cut by 25 bps again in September and reach the bottom of their neutral rate

Prior 45.1 The decline in activity was steeper than in April but there looks to be some improvement in fortunes, led by a continued recovery in civil engineering activity. Homebuilding and commercial activity continues to stutter though but firms’ expectations for the coming year improved markedly to turn positive for the first time since the

This will mark the first time that a Japanese automaker has had to halt production due to rare earth export restrictions. And if anything, it continues to highlight China’s dominance in rare earth supply globally. Suzuki says that they have stopped production of its Swift model cars effective 26 May. For some context, Japan and

Eurostoxx +0.1% Germany DAX +0.1% France CAC 40 +0.1% UK FTSE flat Spain IBEX -0.3% Italy FTSE MIB flat After the gains in the past two days, we’re seeing things settle down for a bit with US futures also looking rather tentative. S&P 500 futures are down 0.04%, so it’s not indicative of much to

Nasdaq Analysis for Today (June 5, 2025): tradeCompass Methodology Current Nasdaq Futures Price: $21,748 (hovering around today’s VWAP) Nasdaq Analysis Today: Market Context & Directional Bias Today’s Nasdaq analysis highlights a narrow trading range persisting since yesterday, characterized by a nearly doji-like formation indicating indecision among market participants. Today’s price action remains tight around the

In the European session, we don’t have much on the agenda other than a couple of low tier releases like the Italian Retail Sales and the Eurozone PPI. These indicators won’t change anything in terms of market pricing. In the American session, we have the ECB Policy Decision and the US Jobless Claims data. The

The Czech Republic, also known as Czechia, is a member of the European Union (EU). While Czechia is an EU member, it has not yet adopted the euro and still uses the Czech koruna. So, this is not about the European Central Bank meeting today, Thursday, June 5, 2025. Its an outlook piece re the

Ukraine and the United States are working to launch a joint minerals fund by the end of the year, with the first board meeting expected in July, Ukraine’s First Deputy Prime Minister Yulia Svyrydenko said during a visit to Washington. Svyrydenko met with U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and the U.S. Development Finance Corporation to

Via China China Securities Journal, a state-run media outlet in China:People’s Bank of China (PBOC) could take further measures in H2 of 2025 Such as an RRR cut if necessary In order to further release long-term liquidity to ensure that liquidity remains reasonably ample in the middle of the year and in 2H25 creating a

Saudi Arabia state-owned oil company Saudi Arabian Oil Co. (Aramco) lowered its official selling price for July loadings of Arab Light to Asia to $1.20 a barrel above the Oman/Dubai average, $1.40 in June. Aramco’s latest pricing moves suggest a softer demand outlook in Asia, with cuts across its light and medium crude grades, while

Japan finance ministry 30 year Japanese Government Bond auction bid-to-cover ratio 2.92 prior sale 3.07 & 12-month average 3.39 weakest demand ratio since 2023 (in December 2023 ut was 2.615) average yield 2.904%, yield at lowest accepted price 2.938% auction tail at 0.49 yen versus 0.30 yen at previous auction Not strong results in Japan.

Federal Reserve’s Kugler and Harker to speak on economy & policy Thursday China Securities Journal says PBOC may cut RRR to ensure reasonable liquidity in 2h25 Bank of England Monetary Policy Committee member Megan Greene speaks Thursday China Caixin Services PMI (May) 51.1 (prior 50.7) Australian April goods exports -2.4% m/m (prior +7.6%) More on:

Real wages fell for a fourth consecutive month in Japan in April -1.8% y/y, from -1.8% also in March and -1.5% in February Base pay +2.2% y/y, the fastest in four months Overtime pay +0.8% Total average cash earnings, or nominal pay, +2.3% from +2.3% also in March — Inflation-adjusted real wages are a key

Kugler and Harker look most likely to be of interest: 1600 GMT/1200 US Eastern time: Federal Reserve Board Governor Adriana Kugler speaks on the economic outlook and monetary policy before an Economic Club of New York luncheon 1730 GMT/1330 US Eastern time: Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City President Jeffrey Schmid speaks on banking policy

US auto supplier group says “immediate and decisive action is needed to prevent widespread disruption and economic fallout across the vehicle supplier sector” on Chinese rare earth issue. more to come This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

A leading U.S. auto supplier group is warning that China’s restrictions on rare earth and critical mineral exports pose an urgent threat to the industry. MEMA, the Vehicle Suppliers Association, said on Wednesday that parts manufacturers are already facing “serious, real-time risks” to their supply chains. The group stressed that the situation remains unresolved and

The People’s Bank of China (PBOC), China’s central bank, is responsible for setting the daily midpoint of the yuan (also known as renminbi or RMB). The PBOC follows a managed floating exchange rate system that allows the value of the yuan to fluctuate within a certain range, called a “band,” around a central reference rate,

May US ISM services 49.9 vs 52.0 expected ADP May employment +37K vs +110K prior Bank of Canada rate decision: Rates held at 2.75% as expected More talk about a near-term Canada-US trade deal Beige Book: Economic activity has declined slightly since the prior report BOC Governor Macklem: We will be watching carefully the next

Deutsche Bank is maintaining its call for a 1.50% terminal rate in the European Central Bank’s (ECB) easing cycle but notes rising risks that the cycle may end sooner than previously expected. As the second half of the year unfolds, the bank expects market focus to shift away from near-term rate cuts and toward how

RBC Global Asset Management says the U.S. dollar’s recent slide could be signalling a broader shift in investor sentiment away from American assets. In a note to clients, the firm points to the 10% decline in the U.S. Dollar Index since January—despite ongoing market volatility and elevated investor anxiety that would typically support the greenback.

Good morning, afternoon and evening all. Any charts, technical analysis, trade ideas, thoughts, views, ForexLive traders would like to share and discuss with fellow ForexLive traders, please do so: This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

The final China PMI for May is due today, the Caixin Services and Composite PMIs. Over the weekend we had the official PMIs: China May Manufacturing PMI rose to 49.5 (prior 49.0), Non-manufacturing 50.3 (prior 50.4) And earlier this week the Caixin manufacturing PMI, a very poor result. Chinese authorities are already promising more stimulus

Gold is in an interesting spot. The chart looks a tad dangerous with a series of lower highs but you could equally argue that a period of consolidation is overdue after a long runup from $1700, with only a short pause at $2600. Equally, you could argue that a retracement is overdue as it’s been

I’ve been banging on this drum all day because I think there could be an opportunity here: Alberta Premier Danielle Smith says Canada is optimistic about a near-term trade deal with the US. This comes after late yesterday there was a report in the Toronto Sun citing a source saying “it will happen before the

Half of the Districts reported slight to moderate declines in activity, three Districts reported no change, and three Districts reported slight growth. All Districts reported elevated levels of economic and policy uncertainty Consumer spending reports were mixed Residential real estate sales were little changed Employment steady, hiring cautious due to uncertainty Tariffs driving moderate price

RBC expects the Bank of Canada’s next move to hinge on how much further the Canadian economy softens, with a notable Q2 slowdown in GDP growth and rising unemployment in the forecast. “We think the path of the BoC will be largely determined by the extent of further softening in the economy,” economist Claire Fan

Trump criticizing Powell for being too late is basically an admission that the economy is slowing. ADP NUMBER OUT!!! “Too Late” Powell must now LOWER THE RATE. He is unbelievable!!! Europe has lowered NINE TIMES! For the record, the ECB has cut 7 times from 4.00% to 2.25% while the Fed has cut rates by

The Bank of Canada likes to keep the market guessing. The Fed seems to think it has a solemn responsibility to never make an unexpected move but the BOC doesn’t share that view, that’s why we often get surprises and an uncertain market into rate decisions. Today’s 10 am ET announcement is no exception as

USD/JPY slumped 130 pips on Monday, rebounded 130 pips on Tuesday and fell 130 pips today. These are wide moves in a pair that was once known as a sleepy pair. To start the week, trade was the driver but today the focus was on the US economy. Soft readings on ADP employment and ISM

The latest scuttlebutt is that Trump and Xi will talk on Friday – thats from unnamed sources. Meanwhile, via Politico (a US politics site): “The president is obsessed with having a call with Xi,” said one person familiar with the trade talks, convinced he can personally hash out deep-seated divisions between the world’s two largest

Trump readout from call with Putin: Spoke for 1 hour, 15 mins Discussed Ukraine attack on Russia Conversation was good but will not leads to immediate peace Putin said he will have to respond to attack on planes I find it notable that more than half of Trump’s comments are about Iran, which makes it

Fed: 49 bps (96% probability of no change at the upcoming meeting) ECB: 55 bps (99% probability of rate cut at the upcoming meeting) BoE: 38 bps (97% probability of no change at the upcoming meeting) BoC: 41 bps (73% probability of no change at the upcoming meeting) RBA: 75 bps (82% probability of rate

Prior -1.2% Market index 226.4 vs 235.7 prior Purchase index 155.0 vs 162.1 prior Refinance index 611.8 vs 634.1 prior 30-year mortgage rate 6.92% vs 6.98% prior Mortgage applications fell again in the past week with both purchases and refinancing activities seen declining. With rates continuing to hold at the highs, it is making for

Putin and Trump confirmed readiness to stay in constant contact Trump believes Russia’s assistance on Iran is necessary Trump said US was not warned about Ukraine’s drone attack Ukraine deliberately struck civilian targets We’re all waiting to see what the Russian response is to the attack. This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

Prior was 51.6 Prices paid: 68.7 vs. 65.1 prior New orders: 46.4 vs. 52.3 prior — first negative reading in a year Employment: 50.7 vs. 49.0 prior Business activity: 50.0 vs. 53.7 prior Supplier deliveries: 52.5 vs. 51.3 prior Inventories: 49.7 vs. 53.4 prior Backlog of orders: 43.4 vs. 48.0 prior New export orders: 48.5

Oil lower on headline. This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

FXIFY, the industry’s oldest broker-backed prop firm, is proud to announce the return of its Earth Day initiative in partnership with WeForest. After the overwhelming success of last year’s campaign, which resulted in 15,400 trees planted by over 5,000 traders and the regeneration of 14 hectares of degraded land in Butiama Hills, Tanzania, FXIFY has

Canada PM’s office: Additional U.S. tariffs on Canadian steel and aluminum are ‘unlawful and unjustified’ Canada government is engaged in intensive and ‘live negotiations’ to have U.S. tariffs removed This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

Prior 49.0 Final Composite PMI 50.3 vs 49.4 prelim Prior 48.5 Key findings: Marginal increase in business activity Business optimism rebounds to a seven-month high New work and employment continue to decline Comment: Tim Moore, Economics Director at S&P Global Market Intelligence, said: “The service sector regained its poise in May as receding concerns about

Headlines: Dollar a touch lower in European morning trade Watch out for these two key macro risks ahead Interest rate expectations remain largely the same amid lack of changes in macro picture Trump says it is extremely hard to make a deal with Xi EU’s Sefcovic: Constructive discussion with Greer, we are advancing in right

Prelim was 52.3 Prior was 50.8 Composite PMI 53.0 vs 52.1 prelim and 50.6 prior This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

The ADP jobs report isn’t a good pre-cursor to non-farm payrolls but it’s a jobs measure in its own right and comes from a robust data set. As you can see, it fell in April at the height of Liberation Day anxiety. Will it rebound? The consensus is +110K but the risk is a further

Prior 49.0 Final Composite PMI 48.5 vs 48.6 prelim Prior 50.1 Key findings: Comment: This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at www.forexlive.com.

Focus should be on 2% inflation, not try to make up for past inflation shortfalls Fed should pay attention to overshooting on full employment, not just employment Fed should consider how to better convey key risks, uncertainties and policy responses This is theoretical stuff and doesn’t apply to current outlook. This article was written by

In all likelihood, this is going to result in a Russian escalation and on we go. This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

Prior was -2795K Gasoline +5219K vs +609K exp Distillates +4230K vs +1018K exp Nice headline but huge builds in products. API data from late yesterday: Crude -3300K Gasoline +4700K Distllates +760K Oil dropped on the latest headlines but quickly rebounded. It’s up around 40 cents today. This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

Bank of America expects nonfarm payrolls to rise by 150K in May—above consensus—but warns of downside risks due to trade-related hiring volatility. The unemployment rate is forecast to remain at 4.2%, and a modest miss is unlikely to shift the Fed’s current policy stance. Key Points: Headline Forecast: BofA projects a 150K increase in payrolls,

Sector Overview The US stock market today reveals a mixed landscape of sector performance. Technology and communication services sectors are witnessing notable movements, while the semiconductor industry shows marginal changes. Technology: Microsoft (MSFT) posts a minor gain of 0.38%, reflecting stability in the software infrastructure segment. However, Palantir Technologies (PLTR) experiences a sharp decline of

Prior was +62K Goods producing -2K vs +26K prior Service providing +36K vs +34K prior Wage measures: Pay gains for job stayers 4.5% vs 4.5% prior Pay growth for job changers 7.0% vs 6.9% prior Full report The April reading was the worst one since July and this is even worse as it takes us

ETH Price Prediction Using This Guide: What is “Average Buy Profit,” and How Can Ethereum Traders Use it Effectively? If you’re new to crypto investing or trading, you’ll encounter many unfamiliar terms and metrics. One particularly useful metric is the Average Buy Profit (ABP), offered by blockchain analytics platforms like Whale Alert. Let’s break down

JOLTS April job openings 7.391M vs 7.100M expected China’s top diplomat meets US ambassador to China – report White House confirms that it wants best trade offers by Wednesday Fed’s Goolsbee: We will have to wait and see if tariffs have a big or small impact Fed’s Cook: Monetary policy is well-positioned for a range

China commerce ministry: Minister Wang Wentao met with the European Trade Commissioner Sefcovic in France on Tuesday The two sides conducted concentrated, candid and in-depth discussions on urgent and important topics surrounding China-EU economic and trade cooperation, and ask both teams to intensify efforts to make preparations for important agenda between China and the EU

“I like President XI of China, always have, and always will, but he is VERY TOUGH, AND EXTREMELY HARD TO MAKE A DEAL WITH!!!” There’s no follow up on that and it isn’t clear if he actually spoke to Xi already or not. Earlier suggestions were that they were working towards a potential phone call

The market was pricing in a 26% chance of a cut Macklem said there was a ‘clear consensus’ to hold at this meeting Governing Council decided to hold the policy rate as we gain more information on US trade policy and its impacts April inflation excluding taxes was 2.3%, which was slightly stronger than expected

White House says the boosted steel tariffs will hit at 1201 am on Wednesday, June 4, 2025. UK steel tariffs will remain at 25% though everyone else doubled to 50% This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

Prior was +0.6% (revised to +1.2%) Productivity is critical but notoriously difficult to measure in real time. This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

Good morning, afternoon and evening all. Any charts, technical analysis, trade ideas, thoughts, views, ForexLive traders would like to share and discuss with fellow ForexLive traders, please do so: This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

That comment should add to the trade optimism that’s bubbling in markets. Meeting with Sefcovic was ‘very constructive’ This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

Prior 52.9 Composite PMI 52.5 vs 52.1 prior Key findings: Business activity rises at stronger rate, while the future outlook brightens New business growth softens slightly, but remains historically elevated Inflationary pressures intensify Comment: Commenting on the PMI data, Nils Müller, Junior Economist at Hamburg Commercial Bank, said: “Italy’s service sector continued to expand in

A Barclays note says they are turning less cautious on oil spot fundamentals are holding up better than expected de-escalation in trade tensions is supporting a resilient demand outlook supply has been largely in line expectations This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

We had substantive and constructive discussion with Greer, concluded we are advancing in right direction and pace. Main message from at trade talks in Paris is strong support for multi-lateral ties, strong rules based system. On US steel tariffs, we discussed this with Greer, told him we strongly regret it, and it does not help

Things are still looking fairly subdued so far on the day but there are some light moves to start the session. The push and pull continues for the dollar in trading this week, with the currency nudging back just a touch lower today. EUR/USD is up 0.3% to just above 1.1400 after a bounce off

Since the April 9 pause in the reciprocal tariffs, the de-escalation trend saw the markets pricing out a global slowdown and pricing in a rebound. Sure enough, that’s what happened as we started to get an improvement in the soft data. The current expectations are for continued improvement in global growth and for the disinflationary

There is some underlying volatility in inflation, don’t want to focus too much on one month. This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

Data on Tuesday showed Swiss inflation falling to its lowest level level since COVID. consumer prices fell by 0.1% y/y in May, lowest since March 2021 the SNB has a 0-2% target range Swiss National Bank (SNB) board member Petra Tschudin commented on May inflation data. SNB won’t be distracted by monthly inflation numbers “We’re

The People’s Bank of China (PBOC), China’s central bank, is responsible for setting the daily midpoint of the yuan (also known as renminbi or RMB). The PBOC follows a managed floating exchange rate system that allows the value of the yuan to fluctuate within a certain range, called a “band,” around a central reference rate,

Crypto Whale Transfers Analysis: Weekly Highlights and Market Sentiment Understanding large cryptocurrency transactions, commonly called “whale transfers,” can provide important clues about market sentiment and potential price direction. Using Whale Alert data, we’ve identified the most significant crypto whale transfer each week, analyzed its implications, and summarized the broader market sentiment. Here’s your latest weekly

Composite index 45.5 vs 41.7 prior Confidence amongst service providers improved during May to its highest level since January. Job losses were recorded for four straight months ahead of this data point but this month showed ‘marginal’ growth confidence showed some improvement compared to earlier in the year Latest data indicated an acceleration in input

1230 GMT/0830 US Eastern time Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta President Raphael Bostic gives welcome and closing remarks before a Fed Listens event “How Monetary Policy and Macroeconomic Conditions Affect Individuals and Businesses” at the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta Bostic spoke Tuesday, I doubt there will be any change in content: Fed’s Bostic: Best

The data out from the region today is unlikely to shift around major FX too much. Australian GDP will be interesting for the economics minded but AUD traders will likely not pay it a lot of attention. Japan services PMI will probably be more interesting. A marked shift in tone from Bank of Japan Governor

There are a couple to take note of on the day, as highlighted in bold. The first ones are for EUR/USD at the 1.1350 and 1.1400 levels. The expiries might play a part in keeping price action more limited, at least before we get to US trading later. They don’t tie much to any technical

Technical analysis is a methodology to trade the markets. It uses historical price (or volume) to help you make a trading decision. There are hundreds of technical analysis tools available, but most of them fall into one of these categories…VolumeIndicatorsChart patternsSupport & resistanceBut here’s the thing… Despite having an abundance of these tools (like RSI, MACD, Stochastic, Fibonacci,

Trump plans to invoke emergency powers under the Defense Production Act to fast-track domestic production of critical minerals, bypassing some legal and funding requirements. The move aims to counter China’s dominance in the critical minerals supply chain, especially after Beijing recently restricted exports in response to U.S. trade tensions. Trump’s waivers would remove limits such

Very slow to come out today this data point. Twitter has it now. Via twitter: — Expectations I had seen centred on: Headline crude -1 mn barrels Distillates +1 mn bbls Gasoline +0.6 mn This data point is from a privately-conducted survey by the American Petroleum Institute (API). It’s a survey of oil storage facilities

People’s Bank of China USD/CNY reference rate is due around 0115 GMT. The People’s Bank of China (PBOC), China’s central bank, is responsible for setting the daily midpoint of the yuan (also known as renminbi or RMB). The PBOC follows a managed floating exchange rate system that allows the value of the yuan to fluctuate

We are advancing in the right direction at pace on tariffs There’s no specific details offered up but things appear to be moving at least. I still wouldn’t be one to hold my breath expecting a significant breakthrough any time soon. That especially when there aren’t any specifics revealed just yet. 35 more days to

Japan Jibun Bank PMI May 2025 Services PMI 51.0 preliminary 50.8, prior 52.4 Composite 50.2 preliminary 49.8, prior 51.2 PMI manufacturing, final for May 2025 49.4 (prior 48.7) more to come This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

Japan’s Komeito party, the junior partner in the ruling coalition, plans to propose lowering the consumption tax on food from 8% to 5% as part of its campaign platform for the July upper house election, according to the Yomiuri newspaper. The proposal, expected to be officially announced on Friday, also includes cash handouts to help

Prior 47.3 Composite PMI 49.3 vs 48.0 prelim Prior 47.8 The reading still marks a contraction in business activity but much less pronounced after the revision. Of note, the fall in new orders and employment were not as marked as the months before. HCOB notes that: “The French private sector economy seems like it’s on

Eurostoxx +0.4% Germany DAX +0.6% France CAC 40 +0.3% UK FTSE flat Spain IBEX +0.2% Italy FTSE MIB +0.2% This comes as Wall Street also turned things around yesterday to finish in the black. US futures are more tentative today though, with S&P 500 futures down 0.1%. We’ll have to watch for more trade headlines

Prior 53.4 Composite PMI 51.4 Prior 52.5 The headline reading slows in May to an 18-month low, as increased uncertainty weighed on growth in demand and activity on the month. The confidence in the outlook also slumped to its lowest since November 2023. HCOB notes that: “Cooling conditions in Spain’s private sector economy. The headline

Prior 50.1 Composite PMI 50.2 vs 49.5 prelim Prior 50.4 The revisions see the euro area economy post a marginal growth in business activity in May. But in all honest evaluation, it pretty much points to the economy stalling with services sector growth also grinding to a halt. Weaker demand conditions are to blame, especially

UBS analysts warn that trade wars continue to pose a threat to the US dollar. They note that some U.S. trade partners may delay striking deals with a potential Trump administration, hoping for more favourable terms, which could lead to a fresh round of tariff escalations and increase downside risks for the dollar. UBS sees

Fundamental Overview The USD remains a bit on the backfoot as the support from the more hawkish repricing in interest rates expectations got exhausted a couple of weeks ago. The market is now in line with the Fed’s baseline projection of two cuts in 2025 and we will likely need strong US data to price

This via chief economist at KPMG in the US, Diane Swonk: a Federal Reserve study showed that Trump’s 2018–2019 steel tariffs raised input costs so sharply that any jobs protected in the steel sector were outweighed by broader manufacturing job losses Swonk warned that the impact could be even more severe this time around “Now

Trump plans to invoke emergency powers to fast-track critical minerals domestic production Australian Q1 2025 GDP 0.2% q/q (vs. expected 0.4%) PBOC sets USD/ CNY central rate at 7.1886 (vs. estimate at 7.1977) Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta President Raphael Bostic is speaking on Wednesday, June 4 Japan May 2025 Services PMI 51.0 (preliminary 50.8,

In the European session, we don’t have much on the agenda other than the final services PMIs for the UK and European economies. These shouldn’t be market moving releases since they won’t change anything in terms of market pricing. In the American session, in terms of data points, we have the US ADP, the Canadian

The Toronto Sun is reporting that a deal between both sides could be imminent after a speech at the Empire Club in Toronto from Trump’s new emissary to Canada, Pete Hoekstra. There were mixed opinions about Hoekstra’s speech though but the crowd was said to be stirring up speculation about a deal happening before the

Follow FBI Director Kash Patel via Twitter confirms the arrests: Two Chinese nationals charged for smuggling potential bioterror fungus into the US Says: This case is a sobering reminder that the CCP is working around the clock to deploy operatives and researchers to infiltrate American institutions and target our food supply, which would have grave

Australian S&P Global PMI Final for May Services 50.6 preliminary was 50.5 prior 51.0 Composite 50.5 preliminary was 50.6 prior 51.0 — — From the report, Jingyi Pan, Economics Associate Director at S&P Global Market Intelligence: “Growth in the Australia service sector slowed midway through the second quarter of 2025, according to the latest S&P

The dollar is caught in a push and pull mood in the first two days this week, making it tough to find much conviction thus far. Trade uncertainty continues to be something to note but there are positive murmurs as Trump might not go all ballistic as he did in April. In any case, we’ll

Iran is open to basing a nuclear deal with the U.S. around the idea of a regional uranium enrichment consortium, so long as it is located within Iran Axios with the info, citing an Iranian official: “If the consortium operates within the territory of Iran, it may warrant consideration. However, should it be based outside

Economic growth data from Australia for the January – March quarter of 2025. +0.2% q/q for a bad miss, although as noted some estimates were revised much lower ahead of the data release expected +0.4%, prior +0.6% +1.3% y/y, also a miss but the same rate as Q4 2024 expected +1.5%, prior +1.3% more to

The Bank of Canada is expected to keep its key interest rate at 2.75% this week, with 11 of 13 surveyed economists forecasting no change (Wall Street Journal survery). While unemployment is rising and domestic demand has slipped, stronger-than-expected Q1 GDP growth—boosted by tariff-avoidance spending—shows some economic resilience. Policymakers are prioritising rising core inflation, which

U.S. authorities have charged two Chinese nationals—Yunqing Jian and Zunyong Liu—with smuggling and conspiracy after one of them allegedly brought a dangerous agricultural fungus, Fusarium graminearum, into the country hidden in a backpack. The pathogen, which can infect crops like wheat, maize, and rice and pose health risks to animals and humans, is considered a

Trump-owned Truth Social files for Bitcoin ETF: New York Stock Exchange listing sought, NYSE Arca for the Truth Social Bitcoin ETF. Info via crypto media outlets. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

Bank of America expects the June ECB meeting to deliver a widely anticipated 25bp rate cut without offering clear forward guidance. With uncertainty around tariffs and inflation, the ECB is likely to maintain a data-dependent stance, keeping the EUR broadly unaffected. Key Points: Rate Cut Priced In:The ECB is expected to lower its policy rate

The Iran headlines on a US nuclear offer weighed on crude, sapping some of the earlier gains. Still, it settled 89-cents higher to $63.41. That’s the highest since May 13. Zooming out to the daily chart, do we have an inverted head-and-shoulders shaping up here? If the neckline breaks it would target $73. This article

Is Elon Musk having buyer’s remorse? The world’s richest man spent a fortune (at least a fortune in terms of the rest of us) to secure the US election for Trump. He followed that up by creating DOGE and failing to find much in the way of savings while destroying his personal brand. Was it

A New York Times report highlights a proposal by the Trump admin that would allow Iran to continue enriching uranium at low levels while a broader arrangement is worked out that would block the country’s path to a nuclear weapon. The proposal says the US would ‘facilitate’ the building of nuclear power reactors for Iran.

Goolsbee doesn’t have pre-released text for his speech, so I’ll update as we go if there is anything. He’s talking about the inflatino impact of tariffs in these comments. Could see direct effect of tariffs on prices within a month Slowdown related to tariffs might not show up for a while in the data This

Says she is committed to keeping longer-term inflation expectations in check She will balance Fed goals as part of mon pol deliberations Says she anticipates economic growth will slow this year Sees evidence that trade policy is now affecting the economy Trade policy may make it harder to get inflation lower There is a slight

More to come.. This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

Prior was -0.9% Whole milk powder -3.7% This was a market mover at one point but that’s rarely the case any more as dairy is a shrinking part of the NZ economy and terms of trade. This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

Australian data for Q1 2025 from earlier: Current Account Balance -14.7bn AUD expected -13.1bn, prior -12.5bn Gross Company Profits -0.5% q/q expected +1.3%, prior +5.9% Business Inventories +0.8% q/q will add to GDP growth (around +0.1 of a point) expected +0.1%, prior +0.1% +0.7% y/y biggest increase since Q1 2024, driven by a sharp rise

Meta to buy nuclear power from Constellation Energy Corp. More from BoE’s Bailey: Business surveys are probably better guide to UK outlook Zelensky’s insults directed at Russia’s delegation clashed with spirit of negotiations US calls on Vietnam to cut reliance on China in list of trade demands – report EU reportedly says did not get

The Nasdaq is up 0.8% to a session high. The Composite index is up 149 points to 19391, which would be the highest close since February however the intraday high from last week is still a couple points away. Technically, it will be a small hurdle to get back to the February highs if these

The White House confirmed today that it sent a letter asking nations to submit their best trade offers by Wednesday. The progress around trade deals since ‘Liberation Day’ has been painstaking and now we wait to see what the Trump administration is planning. Reuters obtained the letter, which asked countries for their best offers on

Voted to hold rates unchanged in May as labour market not loosened as expected. Services price inflation above what I view as consistent with getting CPI back to target. My switch in vote from a 50 bps cut to a hold reflected spillover from financial market volatility. It’s better to make bolder moves on rates

Ugly number this one. A big, big miss. China Caixin May 2025 Manufacturing PMI 48.3, lowest since September 2022 and the first contraction in eight months expected 50.7, prior 50.4 Over the weekend we had an improving, though still in contraction, official manufacturing PMI: China May Manufacturing PMI rose to 49.5 (prior 49.0), Non-manufacturing 50.3

The major US indices erased earlier declines and are closing higher on the day led by the NASDAQ index which is closing up 0.67%. At session lows, the index was down -128 points or -0.67%. A snapshot of the closing levels shows: Dow industrial average rose 35.41 points or 0.08% at 42305.48 S&P index rose

Australian data for Q1 2025, Business Inventories biggest increase since Q1 2024 More from Ueda: Various opinions on desirable pace of BOJ’s bond taper Bank of Japan Governor Ueda comment has slammed the yen lower China Caixin May 2025 Manufacturing PMI 48.3 (prior 50.4!) RBA May meeting minutes – not yet time to move monetary

Kremlin says work on trying to agree a settlement to end war in Ukraine is extraordinarily complex. Says work is ongoing but it would be wrong to expect imminent decisions. Says agreements reached at talks in Istanbul with Ukraine will be honoured. Says no contacts with Trump have been agreed on yet. Asked about possible

Bloomberg reports that “Constellation Energy Corp. agreed to sell power from an operating Illinois nuclear plant to Meta Platforms Inc. This deal could spur constraction of a new reactor at the site as artificial intelligence sends power demand soaring.” This positive trend for nuclear power has been going on since 2022 when the Russia-Ukraine war

Xinhau reports that China’s top diplomat met with the US ambassador and said he hopes the US official will promote healthy, steady, sustainable ties. I think you have to take the existence of a meeting as a good sign that they will get to a point where Trump and Xi can have a call and

Prior was +4.3% Ex transport -0.5% vs -0.4% prior Durable goods orders: Durable goods orders -6.3% vs -6.3% preliminary Durable goods ex trans -0.5% vs -0.4% preliminary Durable goods ex defense -7.5% versus -7.5% preliminary Nondefense capital ex air -1.5% versus -1.3% preliminary No big changes in this report, though it’s a touch soft. This

Are we in the clear? I’ve always maintained there was a Trump put but it’s been a tough position to hold this year. A big test came last week when a reporter asked Trump about the TACO trade or: Trump Always Chickens Out. That talk and the question set him off. “And you ask a

The US dollar was beaten up yesterday but has rebounded nicely today, particularly USD/JPY. That pair is up more than a cent today, nearly recovering from yesterday’s decline. The gains were helped along by a solid JOLTS report that showed job openings rebounding from the lowest since September. Comments from Atlanta Fed President Bostic also

I don’t think there is any reasonable basis to believe that the US consumer is going to stop spending any time soon. Yes, measures of consumer confidence are in the dumpster but those surveys — for whatever reason — are proving to be worthless in the 2020s. Below are four snippets from recent executive commentary.

Bank of Japan Governor Ueda is appearing in the Japanese parliament: Japanese economy modestly recovering despite some weakness seen Corporate profits are improving, with business sentiment solid As slowdown in overseas economy pressuring corporate profits, pace of economic growth expected to slow down Import prices pushing up inflation are expected to wane Uncertainties over overseas

There are a couple to take note of on the day, as highlighted in bold. They are for EUR/USD at the 1.1400 and 1.1450 levels. As such, the expiries could play a role in limiting price action within that range in the session ahead. But as evident from yesterday, dollar and risk sentiment in general

WSJ China reporter Lingling Wei is out with a notable profile on Chinese Vice Premier He Lifeng, who is leading trade negotiations with the US. She contrasts his hardball style with the pragmatic Liu He, who negotiated during Trump’s first term. “Liu He was too nice,” said a Chinese official who participated in some of

A few hours ago, S&P 500 futures had been solidly negative but they slowly climbed back to unchanged and that’s where US markets have opened. The S&P 500 is down just 1 point while the Nasdaq is flat. So we wait for whatever is coming from the White House today. This article was written by

“I am in no hurry to adjust our policy stance” Still sees path to one rate cut this year, depending on economy It’s a tough call to say if the Fed would be cutting rates absent the uncertainty It’s unclear how tariffs will affect inflation Job market broadly healthy, some signs of weakness Core prices

Bank of Japan Governor Ueda appearing at 0100 GMT/21:00EDT in the Japanese parliament (Diet) Ueda and PM Ishiba This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

Disinflation process has continued. All MPC agree on disinflation, I see greater downside risks. Supply chain data points more clearly to disinflation than noisy wage data. Core inflation stalled around 3.2% and it’s now back up to 3.8% but they are saying that disinflation has continued. Go figure… This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta

See no need now to change our baseline view on Japan’s economy. See no change to big picture of Japan’s economy, price developments since we released our outlook report on May 1. Many trade negotiations with US still going on, uncertainty remains high. Whether to raise interest rates and likely timing of such a move

The Bank of Japan is being urged by market participants to either maintain or ease the pace of its bond purchase tapering beyond fiscal 2026, according to a summary of meetings the Bank held in late May with bond market players. The requests reflect growing concern over recent volatility in super-long Japanese government bond (JGB)

German DAX futures +0.2% UK FTSE futures +0.1% It’s a tentative start to the new week/month for European equities. There was a slightly softer mood yesterday but is going to be balanced out at the open later. This comes with US futures leaning back lower with S&P 500 futures down 0.3% currently. Trade developments remain

The sources say that the US has sent a “long” and “tough” list of requests to Vietnam as part of tariff negotiations between the two countries. One part of that being a call for Vietnam to effectively cut its reliance on Chinese supply chains. This was always going to be one of the trickier deals

Reuters had this report on the response from the EU to Trump’s move to double tariffs. In brief, the European Commission announced on Monday that it will push hard this week for the United States to scale back or scrap tariffs, despite Donald Trump’s pledge to double duties on steel and aluminium imports to 50%.

📊 Sector Overview Today’s market snapshot reveals a dynamic landscape, with a noticeable surge in the semiconductor sector leading the charge. Major players like Nvidia (NVDA) and Broadcom (AVGO) have posted significant gains of +2.61% and +2.08% respectively, driving positive sentiment in the tech domain. This upswing highlights robust demand and possibly favorable industry news

It’s good to be back after a wonderful trip to the Finance Magnates Africa Summit in Cape Town, which was a great event. What a spectacular city, though I didn’t have nearly enough time to see it. I managed to miss the reversal on EU tariffs and the TACO fun while the US dollar has

Japanese firms’ wage and price-setting behaviour could change significantly due to tariffs impact BOJ bond buying is exerting intended effect on improving bond market functionality Many bond market players in recent meeting shared BOJ view on that BOJ must continue to balance predictability and flexibility with regards to bond taper plan in April 2026 USD/JPY

The Trump administration is urging trade partners to submit their best offers by Wednesday, aiming to wrap up negotiations ahead of a looming July 8 deadline tied to its suspended “Liberation Day” tariffs. A draft letter from the U.S. Trade Representative, seen by Reuters, outlines requests for detailed proposals on tariff and quota levels for

It’s been a shaky few days for Tesla (TSLA), and the chart is flashing some classic red flags that traders would be wise to pay attention to. Tesla closed yesterday with a 1.09% decline, but that’s only part of the story. From its recent high just three days ago, the stock has dropped more than

Prior was 7.192 million (revised to 7.20M) Quits rate 2.0% vs 2.1% prior Layoffs 1.1% vs 1.0% prior Hires rate 3.5% vs 3.4% prior This is a nice rebound from the low number in March, though we’re still near the lowest levels of the past two years. It’s surprising that job openings rose in April,

Standard Chartered expects the euro to consolidate around the 1.14 level, supported by a stable European Central Bank policy outlook and improving German sentiment, but tempered by potential shifts back into US assets. In a client note, the bank highlighted that the euro remains largely driven by both US dollar dynamics and domestic European macro

Bank of Japan Governor Ueda: Minutes of BOJ’s meeting with bond market players showed there were only few who wanted tweak to existing bond-taper plan Minutes of BOJ’s meeting with bond market players showed many thought it was important for BoJ to continue tapering bond buying while striking balance between flexibility and predictability Minutes of

New Zealand Q1 2025 terms of trade index +1.9% q/q expected +3.6%, prior +3.1% for the y/y +17% – Export Prices +7.1%, led by dairy prices expected +3.7%, prior +3.2% Import Prices +5.1% expected +1.3%, prior +0.1% Stats NZ cites the Reserve Bank of New Zealand’s trade weighted NZD index fell 5.3% y/y in the

The USD remains on the backfoot as the support from the more hawkish repricing in interest rates expectations got exhausted a couple of weeks ago. The market is now in line with the Fed’s baseline projection of two cuts in 2025 and we will likely need strong US data to price out the remaining rate

Chinese markets are reopening today after the holiday Monday. The People’s Bank of China (PBOC), China’s central bank, is responsible for setting the daily midpoint of the yuan (also known as renminbi or RMB). The PBOC follows a managed floating exchange rate system that allows the value of the yuan to fluctuate within a certain

Trump’s tariffs are still the main thing that is keeping markets on edge as we get into June trading. Wall Street managed a modest recovery yesterday, led by tech shares. But even so, there’s still a lot of uncertainty up in the air on the trade front at the moment. Let’s try and take stock

Bank of Japan Governor Ueda: US tariffs will likely affect Japan’s economy through various channels but it will probably first come via export firms If US tariffs hurt exporters’ profits, that could have broader impact on households, firms such as by souring consumer sentiment Japan’s real wages are negative, aware that is having big impact

Business surveys are probably better guide to UK outlook than recent GDP data. GDP is always a very lagging indicator. Pattern from forward-looking surveys is not as strong for outlook as latest GDP. Official data showing negative productivity growth in the UK last year is a puzzle, as it is usually associated with severe recession.

TMGM, a global leader in online trading and investment services, was one of the official partners of the prestigious end-of-season CFC Awards 2025 ceremony. The glittering event at London’s iconic Grosvenor House on May 4 brought together Chelsea’s Men’s, Women’s, and Academy teams to celebrate outstanding achievements throughout the 2024-25 season. As Chelsea FC’s Official

Reserve Bank of Australia assistant Gov Hunter: Higher US tariffs will put a drag on the global economy Assuming weaker global growth environment will moderately dampen prices for tradable goods Higher uncertainty can lead to declines in investment, output and employment Higher global uncertainty has a large negative effect on Australian business investment Australia’s exporters

Fundamental Overview The USD remains on the backfoot as the support from the more hawkish repricing in interest rates expectations got exhausted a couple of weeks ago. The market is now in line with the Fed’s baseline projection of two cuts in 2025 and we will likely need strong US data to price out the

Key factors for May rate decision were domestic, not tariffs. We have not seen particular inflation surprises. Labour market has loosened somewhat. Pay growth is above levels consistent with a 2% inflation target but lower than expected in February. Path of slowing pay growth is intact. The UK continues to have the highest core inflation

Eurostoxx +0.2% Germany DAX +0.2% France CAC 40 +0.2% UK FTSE +0.3% Spain IBEX flat Italy FTSE MIB -0.1% It’s a bit of catching up to the late bounce in Wall Street but any optimism there is balanced out by a slight drop as well in US futures today. S&P 500 futures are down 0.35%

Economic, price environment is becoming more complex Economic developments have changed sharply since Trump’s tariffs in April Tariffs could hurt demand via heightened uncertainty, which could weigh on the economy Firms could swallow rising costs from tariffs but this will worsen corporate profits In turn, that will have negative impact on wages Tariffs could affect

It’s still all about trade uncertainty at the moment, as we await more headlines to work with during the week. There’s still only 36 days to go before Trump’s deadline for trade deals, so time’s a-wasting. That being said, the courts are also still doing battle on the reciprocal tariffs so we’ll have to see

People’s Bank of China USD/CNY reference rate is due around 0115 GMT. The People’s Bank of China (PBOC), China’s central bank, is responsible for setting the daily midpoint of the yuan (also known as renminbi or RMB). The PBOC follows a managed floating exchange rate system that allows the value of the yuan to fluctuate

In the European session, we will get the inflation reports for Switzerland and Eurozone. The Swiss CPI Y/Y is expected at -0.1% vs 0.0% prior. The market is pricing a 32% chance of a 50 bps cut at the upcoming SNB meeting. A miss should increase the expectations for the larger cut but might not

🌍 2025 global GDP growth forecast seen at 2.9% (previously 3.1%) 🌍 2026 global GDP growth forecast seen at 2.9% (previously 3.0%) 🇺🇸 2025 US GDP growth forecast seen at 1.6% (previously 2.2%) 🇺🇸 2026 US GDP growth forecast seen at 1.5% (previously 1.6%) 🇪🇺 2025 Eurozone GDP growth forecast seen at 1.0% (unchanged) 🇪🇺

Fundamental Overview In the final part of last week, the trade tensions returned as Trump accused China of violating their agreement. We also saw a general step up in Trump’s hawkish rhetoric on tariffs with the President announcing an increase to 50% on steel tariffs starting tomorrow. Maybe being called TACO made him mad. In

Prior +2.2% Core CPI +2.4% vs +2.5% y/y expected Prior +2.7% Headline annual inflation in the euro area dips back under the 2% level with core annual inflation also seen easing further on the month. That just supports rate cut bets by the ECB and will not make it complicated for policymakers to deliver another

Would have preferred bank rate to have followed a different path. Overly restrictive policy risks supressing demand and disincentivising investment. Risks to inflation and growth tilted to the downside. She’s an uber dove so nothing surprising in her comments. This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at www.forexlive.com.

US extends tariff pause on some Chinese goods through to August 31. Bloomberg with the info. more to come This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

UK Trade Minister Jonathan Reynolds will meet with U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer on Tuesday to discuss how to implement a recent trade pact, as concerns mount over new U.S. steel tariffs. The meeting comes during Reynolds’ three-day trip to Paris and Brussels, where he will also review recent political trade understandings with both the

New York Times with the report that: Trump administration to eliminate federal protections banning drilling and mining in Alaska wilderness more to come This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

Economy moving gradually into excess supply Future policy decisions require certainty that inflation is on track Tariffs expected to have small impact on UK economy Slack opening up in labour market will guide policy This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

Prior 0.0% Core CPI +0.5% y/y Prior +0.6% This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

Trump yelling out policy on Iran via his own socila media app: This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

China Chamber of Commerce to the EU: Expresses disappointment and serious concerns about EU’s move to limit Chinese enterprises’ participation in healthcare sector Urges EU to reconsider the necessity and long-term implications of the approved ‘restrictive measures’ in EU procurement market for medical devices Will continue to maintain open communication with all relevant EU stakeholders

Reserve Bank of Australia May minutes: Board considered keeping rates unchanged, cutting by 25 bps or 50 bps Decided case for 25 bps cut was stronger one, preferred policy to be cautious and predictable Inflation still not at mid-point of target band, labour market still tight Board agreed developments in domestic economy alone warranted a

Deutsche Bank expects the European Central Bank to lower its key interest rate by 25 basis points to 2.00% at its June 5 meeting, marking a cumulative 200bp of cuts from the peak and bringing rates closer to a neutral stance. The bank anticipates the ECB will maintain its meeting-by-meeting, data-driven approach to policy decisions.

The Bank of Japan is expected to halt its quarterly reductions in government bond purchases starting next fiscal year, according to former board member Makoto Sakurai. The central bank has been trimming its bond buying by ¥400 billion every quarter since last summer, but recent pressure from rising yields has likely made further cuts too

Bank of Japan Governor Ueda appeared in parliament today. Comments here. He is still speaking. One remark in particular caught my eye: No preset plan for rate hikes, will raise interest rates only if economy, prices turn up again, outlooks likely to be realised This contrasts with what he has been saying in past months:

Japanese media cite an unnamed source for the info: Japanese Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba may dissolve the House of Representatives for a snap general election if the main opposition party submits a no-confidence motion Ishiba has told his aides that “a dissolution of the House of Representatives will come in sight if a no-confidence is

The EURUSD moved higher earlier today and in doing so reached toward a swing area high between 1.1406 and 1.14239. The price traded mostly above the low of that swing area (there was one brief look below the low of the level which was quickly reversed) The buyers are more in control. The next key

From July 1, the minimum wage will be increased from $24.10 per hour, to $24.94 an hour. the increase is above inflation, currently at 2.4% but less than the 4.5% called for by the Australian Council of Trade Unions This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

Catherine Mann is a member of the Monetary Policy Committee at the Bank of England, speaking at an event in Washington, DC: policy in the US is a contributing factor to high volatility in UK assets the 10 year gilt is being impacted heavily by spillover from the US QT can offset some of the

Major US indices close higher to start the new week US extends tariff pause on some Chinese goods through to August 31 Crude oil futures and settle at $62.52 Trump Administration: We want countries “best offer” by Wednesday in tariff talks US deal with Iran allows them to enrich Uranium at low levels Ukraine Zelenskyy:

Good morning, afternoon and evening all. Any charts, technical analysis, trade ideas, thoughts, views, ForexLive traders would like to share and discuss with fellow ForexLive traders, please do so: This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

more to come Bank of England Member of the Monetary Policy Committee Catherine Mann takes part in the Fireside chat at the Federal Reserve Board of Governors IF 75th anniversary conference, Washington DC. Rising inflation numbers in the UK are weighing on marekt expectations of further Bank of England rate cuts. Ears open if Mann

WTI crude oil settled at $62.52, up $1.73 or +2.85% on the day. The price traded as high as $63.84 and as low as $61.55 during the session. Technically, the rally extended into a key swing area between $63.52 and $64.14 (see red numbered circles), but still fell short of the 38.2% retracement of the

US deficit, that is a “big deal” Bond market will have a tough time because of deficit US bond market spread will “gap out”. Markets feel complacent. This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

The Trump Administration wants countries best offer by Wednesday in tariff talks. – Draft of Request. Since the Saudi Arabia week where deals were aplenty and it started with the China/US reduction in tariffs, the promised deals have been 0 over the last 2-weeks despite promises for more deals from the likes of Hassett, Navarro

The U.S. dollar is lower today primarily due to renewed concerns over President Donald Trump’s aggressive tariff policies and their potential to hinder economic growth and increase inflation. The dollar has been under pressure from fears of capital outflows, as investors react to trade tensions, particularly with China, and uncertainties around a potential U.S. “revenge

The US proposed nuclear deal with Iran Allows Iran to enrich uranium at low levels Does not include full dismantlement of nuclear facilities This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

The Wall Street Journal with the news that Stanley Fischer has died at 81. His death was confirmed by the Bank of Israel: Fisher was governor of the Bank of Israel from 2005 to 2013 was vice chairman of the Federal Reserve from 2014 to 2017 was a professor of economics at the Massachusetts Institute

The AUDUSD is sharply higher today, up 0.84% on the session, and making a decisive break away from a significant technical confluence of moving averages. The rally has propelled the pair above: The 100-hour MA at 0.64403 The 200-day MA at 0.6445 The 200-bar MA on the 4-hour chart at 0.6450 That tight MA cluster

So far we’ve had excellent inflation reports; Surprisingly little direct impact of tariffs. Don’t know if that will remain true in the next one – two months. Thinks underneath all the Tariff dirt in the air, rates can come down over 12 – 18 months Thinks if we can get past this bumpy period, dual

BOE Mann says: Must consider interactions of QT and rate decisions. QT tightening cannot perfectly offset rate cuts This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

German DAX futures -0.4% UK FTSE futures flat This comes with US futures also leaning towards the softer side. S&P 500 futures are down 0.5% currently. That as trade tensions are keeping up with US and China not finding much common ground during this break period. This from Friday: Trump: China has totally violated its

Dallas Fed Pres. Lorrie Logan: Despite the uncertainty, financial market volatility, the US economy is resilient. Labor market stable. Inflation still somewhat above target. Risks are balanced on both sides of the mandate. If tariffs change inflation expectations and that would be significant. Market volatility, uncertainty could cause households, businesses to pull back. Monetary policy

The major European indices are closing the day with mixed results: Looking at the closing levels: German DAX, -0.28% Frances CAC -0.19% UK’s FTSE 100 +0.02% Spain’s Ibex +0.36% Italy FTSE MIB -0.26% as London/European traders look to exit, the US stock indices are also mixed: Dow Industrial Average -0.47% S&P index -0.08% NASDAQ index

Zelenskyy says: Russia and Ukraine agree to exchange 1000 military servicemen each It would be an additional 200 each. Ukraine and Russia to exchange lists for the POW exchange this week Another step in the right direction. I wonder if a POW does not want to be a POW again. So why continue to be

Russia sees the beginning of complete withdrawal of Ukrainian troops from Russian territory – including Donetsk, Luhansk, Zaporizhzhia and Kherson regions – as one of the options for establishing a ceasefire. As part of the memorandum envisions lifting of all existing and rejection of new economic sanctions and restrictive measures between Russia and Ukraine envisions

Prior +0.2%; revised to +0.3% It’s all positive for the Swiss economy in Q1 with the services sector posting growth. But there was a big boost in exports as firms appeared to be sending out products to the US in the rush to beat Trump’s tariffs. So, there’s that too. This article was written by

Prior month -0.8% revised from -0.5% previously reported. Construction spending -0.4% versus 0.3% expected Overall much weaker than expected from US construction spending as it reacts to higher rates and economic/employment uncertainty. This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

A couple of data points from Australia for May 2025: ANZ Job Advertisements -1.2% m/m prior -0.3% Melbourne Institute Australian headline monthly inflation gauge -0.4% m/m in May biggest fall in 33 months and 2.6% y/y (from 3.3% in April) Trimmed mean: -0.3% m/m (biggest fall in three years) 2.8% y/y (from 3.3% in April)

FIB says its aware of and fully investigating a targeted terror attack in Boulder, Colorado agents and local law enforcement are on the scene Nothing further at this stage. More: in Boulder’s Pearl Street Mall an incendiary device was thrown at walkers at the Run for Their Lives walk on Pearl Street as they were

The 15-year anniversary promotions will run for 4 consecutive weeks, rewarding participants with a 100% deposit bonus of up to $3,750 per week, adding up to a total of $15,000 per trader. “Fifteen years is a significant milestone, and we wanted to celebrate it in the way we know best: by giving back to our

The latest GDP growth for Q2 rises to 4.6% from 3.8%. In your own words: The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the second quarter of 2025 is 4.6 percent on June 2, up from 3.8 percent on May 30. After this morning’s releases from the US Census Bureau

More from Logan: With oil prices down, there’s a risk of lower production, capital investment by energy companies. Repeats a common comment, that at all banks should be set up to use the discount window Healthy banks should use the discount window On oil production, the Trump administration’s has touted the idea of drill, drill,

Oil sold off on Friday following the Reuters report saying that OPEC+ could discuss an oil output hike larger than 411,000 bpd for July over the weekend. That of course created expectations for a larger production increase and therefore weighed on the market. The group though underdelivered on those expectations as it hiked by 411,000

In the European session, we will get the final readings of the PMIs for UK and the major European economies. These shouldn’t change anything in terms of market pricing unless we get big revisions. In the American session, we have the Canadian Manufacturing PMI, the final reading of the S&P Global US PMI and the

This of course follows from Akazawa’s visit to Washington last week. And by the looks of it, there wasn’t any notable progress as seen in the aftermath here. So, Ishiba’s comment only serves to reinforce that sentiment. Akazawa will again be heading to the US for talks later in the week. Tick tock, tick tock.

The USDCAD opened the day with a modest move higher, but on the daily chart, the rally once again stalled just below a key technical level—the 61.8% retracement of the 2024 decline at 1.37415. The high reached 1.3738 before reversing lower (see chart above). That rejection helped push the pair lower and ultimately to a

Prior month 45.3 Canada may manufacturing PMI 46.1 Looking at the details from the S&P global: Headline PMI: 46.1 in May (up from 45.3 in April) Below 50.0 for the 4th consecutive month → continued contraction Production & Orders: Output and new orders declined again; contractions remained steep International demand especially weak; export orders fell

ICYMI – JP Morgan CEO Dimon said China not going to come bow down to the US on trade Recap – Japan Q1 capex jumps 6.4%, offering domestic support despite GDP dip BoJ confirms loss provision on bonds transactions was 100% for fiscal 2024 Heads up for (b/s) ‘rumours’ doing the rounds of Powell to

Priot month 48.7 Details: 🔻 Prices Paid: 69.4 vs. 69.8 last month 🔺 Employment: 46.8 vs. 46.5 last month 🔺 New Orders: 47.6 vs. 47.2 last month 🔺 Production: 45.4 vs. 44.0 last month 🔺 Supplier Deliveries: 56.1 vs. 55.2 last month 🔻 Inventories: 46.7 vs. 50.8 last month 🔻 Customer Inventories: 44.5 vs. 46.2

Headlines: No love for the dollar to start June trading US futures hold lower ahead of North America trading Crude oil rallies as OPEC+ hikes output by less than expected What are the current interest rate expectations for the major central banks? EU Trade Commissioner Sefcovic will meet US Trade Representative Greer on Wednesday Japan

📈 Sector Overview Today’s stock market heatmap reveals a dynamic yet volatile landscape, with technology stocks experiencing notable declines while the healthcare sector exhibits significant resilience. 🚀 Semiconductors Lead Tech Decline The technology sector, driven heavily by semiconductors, shows mixed results. Although Nvidia (NVDA) rose by 1.06%, others like Oracle (ORCL) and Palantir (PLTR) dropped

Preliminary 52.3 Prior 50.2 Final S&P global manufacturing PMI for May 52.0 From Chris Williamson, Chief Business Economist at S&P Global Market Intelligence “The rise in the PMI during May masks worrying developments under the hood of the US manufacturing economy. While growth of new orders picked up and suppliers were reportedly busier as companies

CNBC is reporting that Trump and Xi are to speak this week, but not today. Trump accused China of violating the trade agreement reached in May that lowered tariffs from 145% to 35%. In early April 2025, China imposed export restrictions on seven heavy rare earth metals and rare earth magnets, citing national security concerns.

Bank of Japan confirms that levels of provision for possible losses on bonds transactions was 100% for fiscal 2024. This is re the Nikkei report very early today: The Bank of Japan has boosted its provisions for JGB losses – braced for higher rates This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

The meeting will be held in Paris. As a reminder, Trump recently threatened a 50% tariff on EU to force them to accelerate trade talks and then “paused” the tariff till the original deadline on July 9th. More recently, Trump hiked tariffs on steel to 50% and the European Commission said on Saturday that the

Markets will face a heavy load of high-impact economic data highlighed by the US and Canada jobs report on Friday, and central bank events next week. The Bank of Canada and European Central Bank are expected to cut rates next week. Of course, the wild card will be trade news.. The week is starting with

Japan tariff negotiator Akazawa planning to visit the US for tariff talks for 4 days from Thursday Jiji news via Reuters This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

Ukraine is now saying: Ukraine handed over to Russia delegation a list of deported children to be returned home. Ukraine and Russia are preparing a new exchange of prisoners of war. Ukraine and Russia did meet for talks today. Those talks are now over. We could see more headlines from both Russia and Ukraine. This

U.S. Treasury Secretary Bessent spoke in an interview with CBC: China is holding back products essential to industrial supply chain Believes Trump will talk to China’s Xi very soon – ‘Very soon’. What does that even mean? Just an effort at a pump really. Every day Bessent’s credibility diminishes just a little more. This article

The market is pricing just one rate cut, on the other hand. The BoC has already cut quite aggressively and even delivered some insurance cuts for the trade war. The underlying inflation rate in Canada has been rising steadily since last December and with the aggressive monetary easing and easing in trade war tensions, we

Speech by Governor Waller on the economic outlook, full text here: The Effects of Tariffs on the Three I’s: Inflation, Inflation Persistence, and Inflation Expectations ‘Good news’ rate cuts remain possible later this year Rate cut view rests on easing inflation, tariffs on lower end of range Strong economy through April gives Fed time to

Supply and demand conditions deteriorated markedly and interest rates rose significantly Market participants have been particularly concerned about significant decline in liquidity One participant said BOJ should amend plan to accelerate pace of tapering But another participant said BOJ should opt for more gradual pace of tapering instead One member said there is no problem

Good morning, afternoon or evening to all ForexLive traders and welcome to the start of the new FX week. Indicative rates, a little change from late Friday, the US dollar just a touch weaker in early going: EUR/USD 1.1355 USD/JPY 143.88 GBP/USD 1.3457 USD/CHF 0.8239 USD/CAD 1.3738 AUD/USD 0.6441 NZD/USD 0.5974 Data over the weekend:

Tech shares are leading the declines as we see a bit of a setback for US equities following the late Friday bounce. S&P 500 futures are down 0.5% with Nasdaq futures down 0.7% so far on the day. It’s all about Trump and tariffs as we await more trade headlines to work with in the

There’s a busy week ahead full of economic events to watch for. Today, markets will monitor the manufacturing PMI figures from the eurozone, the U.K., and the U.S. Additionally, Fed Chair Jerome Powell is expected to speak at the Federal Reserve Board of Governors International Finance Division’s 75th Anniversary Conference in Washington, D.C. Tuesday brings

That as confirmed by a spokesperson for the European Commission. Well, we’ll see how things go after that next meet. I wouldn’t hold my breath expecting for anything substantial though. It has taken so long for both sides just to start to sit down and really talk. So, it will be quite wishful thinking to

Fed: 53 bps (96% probability of no change at the upcoming meeting) ECB: 54 bps (96% probability of rate cut at the upcoming meeting) BoE: 39 bps (95% probability of no change at the upcoming meeting) BoC: 37 bps (77% probability of no change at the upcoming meeting) RBA: 72 bps (72% probability of rate

Prior 48.1 It’s the first time since January that Spain’s manufacturing sector records growth in activity. Output also turned positive while the fall in new orders on the month was much slower. There were positives all around with a renewed uptick in confidence and improvements in employment conditions as well. HCOB notes that: “Spain’s manufacturing

Prior 64.31k; revised to 63.60k Net consumer credit £1.6 billion vs £1.1 billion expected Prior £0.9 billion; revised to £1.1 billion The data is out a little earlier than scheduled. Net borrowing of mortgage debt by individuals decreased sharply in April, down by £13.7 billion to -£0.8 billion. This followed an increase in net borrowing

Fundamental Overview The USD remains on the backfoot as the support from the more hawkish repricing in interest rates expectations got exhausted. The market is now in line with the Fed’s baseline projection of two cuts in 2025 and we will likely need strong US data to price out the remaining rate cuts and give

Japan Capital Spending Q1 3025 +6.4% y/y expected +3.8%, prior –0.2% for the q/q +1.6% Capital Spending Ex Software +6.9% y/y expected +5.3%, prior +3.1% Company Sales +4.3% y/y expected +3.0%, prior +2.5% Company Profits +3.8% y/y expected +6.0%, prior +13.5% A bit of a mixed bag of results here. Profits not rising as much

I posted this from the Nikkei earlier, a reminder as we await the opening of Japanese markets for the week. Bank of Japan info comes via Japanese media, Nikkei (gated): The Bank of Japan has set aside the maximum provisions for losses on bond transactions a sign of how the central bank is preparing for

I’m going to call b/s on this, but just as a heads up to some garbage floating around the place: Jerome Powell will resign on Monday Trump plans on lowering interest rates Like I said, garbage, and b/s. But, there it is. The background to this baloney is: no evidence was provided to support the

OPEC+ has agreed to raise oil production by 411,000 barrels per day in July, matching the increases already set for May and June. The decision marks a continuation of the group’s recent strategy shift aimed at reclaiming market share and pressuring members who have been exceeding their output quotas. According to Reuters, eight members are

Prior 45.4 Key details: Domestic and overseas market conditions remain turbulent Input cost and selling price inflation both ease Comment: Rob Dobson, Director at S&P Global Market Intelligence said: “May PMI data indicate that UK manufacturing faces major challenges, including turbulent market conditions, trade uncertainties, low client confidence and rising tax-related wage costs. Downturns in

Eurostoxx -0.3% Germany DAX -0.3% France CAC 40 -0.4% UK FTSE flat Spain IBEX +0.1% Italy FTSE MIB -0.1% There will definitely be challenges in the weeks ahead, not least with trade negotiations between the US and EU. For today though, some tensions between US and China are adding to the stuttering start to the

JPMorgan CEO Jamie Dimon spoke at the 2025 Reagan National Economic Forum on Friday. In brief: said the US needs to get its act together on trade quickly said “the enemy within” is creating problems, need to fix issues such as how the US approaches permitting, regulation, taxation, immigration, education, and the healthcare system, also

China and New Zealand are both closed for public holidays today. Dragon Boat Festival holiday in China: Note that Hong Kong markets are open today. Kings Birthday holiday in New Zealand. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

Japan Jibun Bank PMI Manufacturing (final ) for May 2025 49.4, confirming an 11th consecutive month of contraction for the sector preliminary 49.0 prior 48.7 Japan’s manufacturing sector edged closer to stabilisation in May, according to the latest survey from S&P Global, which showed milder declines in key indicators alongside a notable uptick in employment.

The preliminary for this was better, its here: Australian S&P Global Manufacturing PMI Flash reading for May 2025: 51.7 (prior 51.7) Comes in at 51.0 prelim was 51.7, prior also 51.7 Production shrinks for the first time in three months New orders rise at weaker pace Stocks of purchases decline as buying activity falls Commentary

There is just one to take note of on the day, as highlighted in bold. That being for EUR/USD at the 1.1350 level, with large ones seen thereabouts as well for the days ahead. The expiries today might offer a bit of a floor for price action, alongside the 100 and 200-hour moving averages at

Prior -0.6% This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

Goldman Sachs oil price forecasts: Brent crude (2025 average): $60 per barrel WTI crude (2025 average): $56 per barrel Brent crude (2026 average): $56 per barrel WTI crude (2026 average): $52 per barrel Goldman Sachs expects OPEC+ to deliver one last production increase of 410,000 barrels per day in August before keeping output steady from

Japanese corporate capital spending rose 6.4% year-on-year in Q1, rebounding from a slight decline in Q4 and suggesting resilient domestic demand despite broader economic challenges. The Ministry of Finance data released Monday shows capital expenditure grew 1.6% on a seasonally adjusted quarterly basis, helping offset weak consumption and exports that led to a preliminary 0.7%

Responding to recent U.S. accusations that China violated the trade consensus reached in Geneva, a spokesperson from China’s Ministry of Commerce said Monday that Beijing is aware of the claims. The ministry stated that following the May 12 release of the Joint Statement from the China-U.S. Economic and Trade Meeting, China acted in line with

Fed’s Waller: None of what drove pandemic inflation surge is in place now Just doesn’t see how tariffs would create persistent inflation Policy should look at real side of economy if inflation is close to target Fed is close to reaching inflation target Doubts a 10% tariff can get inflation up to 3% Markets determine

Republican Senator Lindsey Graham, backed by Democrat Richard Blumenthal, is pushing for new Russia sanctions ahead of the G7 summit in mid-June. The bipartisan effort seeks to pressure China and India to stop buying discounted Russian oil. Their bill, now backed by 82 senators, proposes a 500% tariff on imports from countries purchasing Russian oil

Morgan Stanley expects the U.S. dollar to fall around 9% by the middle of next year, driven by slowing U.S. economic growth and aggressive Federal Reserve rate cuts. In a note dated May 31, via Bloomberg, gated, strategists led by Matthew Hornbach said the dollar could reach levels last seen during the COVID-19 pandemic, as

Good morning, afternoon and evening all. Any charts, technical analysis, trade ideas, thoughts, views, ForexLive traders would like to share and discuss with fellow ForexLive traders, please do so: This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

NVIDIA is reportedly working on a new AI chip designed for sale in mainland China, according to The Information. The chip, currently dubbed the B30, will enable Chinese customers to link multiple units together to build high-performance computing clusters—something not previously possible with available products. Major Chinese tech firms including ByteDance, Alibaba, and Tencent have

ICYMI, Ukraine used to drones to attack around 40 Russian war planes at 4 military bases. In summary: Ukraine says it completed its biggest long-range attack of the war Smuggled drones launched a series of strikes on 40 Russian warplanes at four military bases 117 drones were used striking “34% of [Russia’s] strategic cruise missile

Over the weekend we had the official PMIs from China for May: China May Manufacturing PMI rose to 49.5 (prior 49.0), Non-manufacturing 50.3 (prior 50.4) Note that Chinese markets are closed today, Monday, June 2, 2025, for a holiday. New Zealand markets are also closed today. The data agenda ahead is lower-tier only: This article

Bank of Japan info comes via Japanese media, Nikkei (gated): The Bank of Japan has set aside the maximum provisions for losses on bond transactions a sign of how the central bank is preparing for rising interest rates For fiscal 2024, the BOJ raised the level of provisions to 100% for the first time, Nikkei

Data from China’s National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) released on Saturday, May 31, 2025, official May 2025 PMIs Manufacturing Sector PMI: Rose to 49.5 (expected 49.5 and from 49.0 in April); still below the 50 threshold, indicating contraction for a second month. The improvement in May is likely reflecting some thawing in the icy trade

Certainly, here’s the revised version with all em dashes (—) replaced by regular hyphens (-): Tesla Under Pressure After NYT Drug Allegations Against Musk – But What Does the Market Tell Us? A weekend exposé by The New York Times titled “Musk’s Drug Use On Campaign Trail Stoked Concerns” has reignited scrutiny over Elon Musk’s

The USDCAD is the largest mover in the market today, down 0.67% with a high-to-low trading range of 114 pips, well above the 22-day average of 80 pips. The expanded range underscores strong directional momentum, particularly as sellers regained control following multiple failed upside attempts. Technically, the pair started the day with a brief push

Crude oil futures are settling at $60.79. That’s down $0.15 or -0.25% on the day. For the week, the price fell -1.59%. For the year, the price fell -15.43% This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

The major US stock indices are closing mixed with the Dow modestly higher, the S&P unchanged and the Nasdaq modestly lower. A snapshot of the closing levels shows: Dow Industrial Average, +54.34 points or 0.13% at 42,270.07 S&P down -0.48 points or -0.01% at 5911.69 Nasdaq down -62.11 points or -0.22% at 19113.77 The Russell

US major indices close mixed with the Dow higher, S&P unchanged, and Nasdaq lower. Crude oil futures settle at $60.79 More Japan Akazawa: No change in stance that tariffs, including those on auto, regretable Trump: Tariffs are important. He is happy with appeals court decision Iran says Pres. Trump threat to destroy Iran’s nuclear facilities

More from Japan Akazawa: No change in stance that tariffs, including those on auto parts, regretable. Aim to complement US, Japan strength in chips This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

Japan governments economy minister Akazawa met with US treasury secretary Bessent and Commerce Secretary Lutnick for 130 minutes: They agreed to accelerate trade talks, hold discussions again before G7 summit This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

Markets will face a heavy load of high-impact economic data highlighed by the US and Canada jobs report on Friday, and central bank events next week. The Bank of Canada and European Central Bank are expected to cut rates next week. Monday, June 2 10:00am (US) – ISM Manufacturing PMI (Forecast: 49.3 | Prior: 48.7)

Iran says: US Pres. Trumps threat to destroy Iran’s nuclear facilities is a clear red line. It will have severe consequences. Such threats are open hostility against Iran’s national interests if US seeks a diplomatic solution, it must abandon the language of threats and sanctions This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

Tariffs are important. He is happy with the appeals court decision Elon will be back and forth, it is his baby. Many DOGE people are staying on. Will continue cuts surgically We will see the results long into the future. Musk: This is not the end , it is the beginning It is like a

U.S. equities ended the day higher across the board, supported by upbeat tech momentum and optimism around earnings and trade developments. Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 117 points to 42,215.73 (+0.28%) S&P 500 gained 23.62 points to 5,912.17 (+0.40%) Nasdaq Composite climbed 74.93 points to 19,175.87 (+0.39%) Key Movers & Stories Nvidia (NVDA) surged +3.24%

The major European stock indices are closing mostly higher. The France’s CAC is the only decliner on the day. A snapshot of of the closing levels shows: German DAX rose 74.04 points or 0.31% at 24007.28. For the trading week, the index reached a new record high of 24225.97. The index is up 1.6% this

This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

Preliminary 50.8. Last month 52.2 Univ of Michigan sentiment final 52.2 vs 51.0 estimate Current conditions 58.6 vs 57.6 preliminary and 59.6 prior month Expectations 47.9 vs 46.5 preliminary and 47.3 prior month. 2nd worse for the year. Inflation expectations: 1 year inflation expectations 6.6% vs 7.3% preliminary. Prior month 6.5%. Down from the preliminary.

The EURUSD, USDJPY and GBPUSD are trading mixed/modestly changed to start the US session. The big 3 are all trading near MA levels indicative of a market that is awaiting the next shove (or the weekend?). The US PCE data will be released (Feds favored inflation reading), US trade data(still super negative as companies front

USTR Greer is on CNBC and says: We have other tools if the tariff ruling goes the other way, as well Received emails and texts from foreign officials saying, “we are just going to keep negotiating with you as before.” Monitoring Chinese compliance — or non-compliance — with trade agreements. Expressed concern over China’s non-compliance,

The major US stock indices are trading lower to start the last trading day of the week end of the month. A snapshot of the levels currently shows: Dow Jones (DJI): 42,104.40, -111.33 (-0.26%) S&P 500 (SPX): 5,887.38, -24.79 (-0.42%) Nasdaq Composite (IXIC): 19,064.80, -111.07 (-0.58%) For the trading week, the indices are up between

Oil rig coun -4 to 461 Nat Gas +1 to 99 Total rigs -3 to 563. The price of crude oil is down around $0.50 at $60.40. For the week, the price is down -2.07%. For the month, the price is up +3.85% after the price closed last month at $58.17. For the year the

JPM Jamie Dimon: US should be taxing carry forward interest Not increase SALT deduction Says we are going to see a crack in the bond market. Don’t know if crisis will be in 6-months or 6-years. The Fed is right to give time to policy. The Fed has to wait and see. In the future

After attempting to break higher this week, USDCAD buyers continue to come up short at key resistance levels. On Thursday, the pair tried and failed to move above both the 200-hour moving average and the 50% retracement of the May trading range, stalling momentum. Today, after rallying in the Asian Pacific session, the price In

Today at 08:30 ET/12:30 GMT, we get the US April PCE price index data which is the Fed’s preferred inflation measure. This isn’t generally a strong market moving release because the data is old news given that it can be calculated pretty accurately from the CPI, PPI and import prices data. WSJ’s FedWatcher Nick Timiraos

White House Chief of Staff Miller has been sent out to speak about China: China must show its commitment to a rules-based international order. Trump’s hope is that China will choose the path of cooperation and common ground. This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

The USD moved lower after the data that showed inflation was under control – for now. The trade data saw a big improvement. The personal income data was solid. Not so hot is Pres. Trump tweeted that China violated the trade agreement: Stocks are lower. Yields are near unchanged. The USD moved lower initially, but

1620 GMT/1220 US Eastern time: Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta President Raphael Bostic gives welcome remarks before the Council for Economic Education’s 2025 National Economics Challenge, in Atlanta, Ga 1745 GMT/1345 US Eastern time: Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco President Mary Daly participates in panel before virtual Reagan National Economic Forum, in Simi Valley,

Australian credit growth is continuing: Australia Private Sector Credit April 2025 +0.7% m/m (expected +0.5%, prior +0.5%) But retail sales and building permits data out at the same time were both disppoitning: Australian April 2025 retail sales -0.1% m/m (expected +0.3%) Australian April building permits -5.7% m/m (expected +3.1%) AUD/USD is a little lower, but

Tech stocks struggle while healthcare gains: Today’s market overview The US stock market is showcasing a dynamic landscape today, characterized by struggles within the semiconductor sector and encouraging growth in healthcare stocks. Let’s dive into the current trends, sector performances, and strategic insights to help investors navigate these volatile times. 📉 Semiconductor Struggles: A Red

The Tokyo inflation data is here: Tokyo May 2025 headline CPI +3.4% y/y (3.4% expected) Core is at its highest since January 2023 Core-core is at its highest since January 2024 If these numbers translate into the national level CPI for the month, due ion around 3 weeks, it’ll boost Bank of Japan confidence that

The AUDUSD started the week on a strong note, breaking above recent resistance to post a new high for 2025 on Monday. However, that bullish breakout proved short-lived. Price quickly reversed lower, falling back below the key swing area between 0.6493 and 0.6500 (see red numbered circles), and momentum accelerated as the pair broke below

China’s US Embassy spokesperson: Both China and US have maintained communication over their respective concerns in the economic and trade fields on various bilateral and multilateral occasions at multiple levels. China has repeatedly raised concerns regarding US abuse of export control measures and semiconductor sector and other related practices. China urges US to cease discriminatory

ANZ New Zealand survey of consumer confidence for May 2025 comes in at 92.9 down from 98.3 in April This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

China behaviour is completely unacceptable. We have other tools if the tariff ruling “goes the other way” as well. Tariffs litigation not hurting trade negotiations. I had emails and texts from foreign officials saying, “we’re just going to keep negotiating with you as before”. The US is very focused on monitoring China compliance on trade.

OPEC+ may discuss an oil output hike larger than 411,000 bpd for July. The meeting is tomorrow. Oil is of course down on the news on higher than expected output hike. This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at www.forexlive.com.

China has totally violated its agreement with US. So much for being Mr. Nice Guy Trump is unsatisfied with China’s behaviour and he’s now sharing his disapproval on his Truth Social. The US Treasury Secretary Bessent tonight admitted that talks with China have stalled but will have more in the coming weeks. This article was

The other German state releases around the same time: Hesse CPI +2.3% vs +2.3% y/y prior Brandenburg CPI +2.2% vs +2.2% y/y prior Saxony CPI +2.3% vs +2.4% y/y prior North Rhine Westphalia CPI +2.0% vs +1.8% y/y prior Baden Wuerttemberg CPI +2.2% vs +2.4% y/y prior Not much change from the prior figures. Again,

Priot month 2.6% Core PCE MoM 0.1% versus 0.1% estimate. Prior month revise to 0.1% from 0.0% Core PCE YoY 2.5% versus 2.5% estimate. Prior month revised up to 2.7% from 2.6%. PCE MoM 0.1% versus 0.1% estimate. Prior month 0.0% This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

Prior month -0.2% GDP Q/Q +0.5% vs 0.5% prior Goods producing industries xx% versus -0.6% last month Services producing industries xx% versus -0.1% last month Advanced estimate for the month of April +0.1% Exports of goods drove the growth in the first quarter of 2025, followed by accumulations of business non-farm inventories. Higher imports and

Prior +2.2% CPI (HICP) M/M +0.2% vs +0.1% expected Prior +0.5% Core CPI Y/Y +2.9% vs +2.9% prior Slightly higher than expected figures but nothing that will worry the ECB for the time being. This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at www.forexlive.com.

The Atlanta Fed GDPNow growth estimate rose sharply to 3.8% from 2.2% helped largely by the sharp rise in net exports. In their own words: The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the second quarter of 2025 is 3.8 percent on May 30, up from 2.2 percent on May

BoE’s Taylor in the Financial Times, info via Reuters headlines: I’m seeing more risk piling up on the downside scenario because of global developments A trade war is going to be negative for growth Thought we needed to be on a lower monetary policy path Higher inflation not coming from demand and supply pressures, for

Prior +0.2% No change to the preliminary report. This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at www.forexlive.com.

Lujiazui Forum 2025 will be held on June 18-19, 2025 in Shanghai. It is a high-level economic and financial forum co-hosted by the Shanghai Municipal People’s Government, the People’s Bank of China, the National Administration of Financial Regulation, and the China Securities Regulatory Commission. An official says central authorities are to announce major finanicial policies

Two headwinds that will make things look worse going forward. A year ago tame PCE MoM data will fall off from the YoY calculation, putting upside pressure on the YoY levels. May 2024, 0.0% June 2024, 0.1% July 2024, 0.2% August 2024, 0.1% September 2024, 0.2% October 2024, 0.2% 3- month average: 0.1% 6-month average: