The USDCAD has extended its decline, breaking below a series of key support levels and reinforcing the bearish momentum that has gripped the pair since last week. After failing twice last week at the 200-day moving average near 1.4016 (higher green line), sellers took control, and the break below the 100- and 200-hour MAs with […]

Pres. Trump is saying he is feeling goog on the bill in Congress. Stocks are reacting positively with the Nasdaq up 0.48% at 19233. The high just reached 19240.53. The S&P is still marginally lower by 9 points or -0.15% at 5931.50 This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

Says he hears from an increasing number of businesses who say they can no longer delay responding through changes via prices or employment Fed needs to be more certain about the outlook to be comfortable with how policy should shift US economy is going to see a slowdown in activity but how it plays out

The NASDAQ index has moved into positive territory. It currently trades up 49 points or less 0.27% at 19194.50. That erased a decline of -142.20 at session lows. With the week nearly half over, the index is near unchanged at -0.09% 📈 Top Gainers in the Nasdaq-100 Alphabet Inc. (GOOGL) Gain: +5.14% Closing Price: $172.41

Earlier from China: China’s Commerce Ministry says US measures on China chips are bullying, protectionist The People’s Bank of China (PBOC), China’s central bank, is responsible for setting the daily midpoint of the yuan (also known as renminbi or RMB). The PBOC follows a managed floating exchange rate system that allows the value of the

Prepare to be astonished. Google DeepMind just unveiled Veo 3, a video generation model that is, quite literally, mind-blowing. We’ve never seen anything like it. Veo can generate high-definition, 8-second videos complete with incredibly realistic and perfectly synchronized audio. Forget heavily curated demos – here Dr. Furkan Gözükara, a PhD Computer Engineer, gathered 60 un-cherry-picked

House Speaker Johnson and House Freedom Caucus Harris will go meet US Pres. Trump this afternoon at 3 PM ET. Harris earlier today said that they are encouraged by the progress in the last 24 hours, but does not think it can be done today or even this week. He said he is confident he

Analyzing forex market trends is critical for traders aiming to capitalize on currency movements. Accurate data analysis and the use of advanced trading tools empower traders to make informed decisions. Understanding key data sources and trading signals enhances trend analysis, providing a competitive edge in the forex market. In the dynamic world of forex trading,

New Zealand trade data for April 2025 Exports $NZD 7.84bn prior 7.41bn Imports 6.42bn prior 6.61bn Trade Balance $NZD 1,426mn expected 670mn, prior 794mn The annual trade balance remains a deficit at -4.81bn NZD This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

Second flagship fund closed above the original hard cap with strong support from existing investors and new investors comprising more than two-thirds of capital ● 83% of completed investments have been sourced with in-house developed AI platform, DIANE ● Invictus empowers previously bootstrapped cloud software, cybersecurity, and fintech companies with dedicated operating and data science

Prior was 0.0% The cracks in the Canadian housing market are growing and help isn’t coming. The latest CPI number drastically cut the odds of a BOC rate cut in June (odds now just 31%) and Canadian yields are following the global trend higher. This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

Stock Market Guides, a company that offers stock market scanning software, has announced the latest improvement to its proprietary stock scanner technology. Their stock scanner not only finds trade setups in real time that are popular among active traders, but it also now shows how each of those trade setups performed historically according to backtest

The market pricing now sees 34 bps of easing in 2025 compared to 41 bps before the UK CPI release. The next cut is fully priced in for November. This is still a bit high in my opinion and I would expect some more hawkish repricing in the next weeks and months for the BoE

The AUDUSD has experienced a choppy four-day stretch, marked by key technical tests on both ends of the range. After dipping to a low of 0.6391 yesterday—just above the prior support zone near 0.6388 (Thursday/Friday’s lows)—buyers stepped in and defended the level, forming a near-term base. That bounce highlights the 0.6388–0.6391 area as key support,

Sector Overview The US stock market experienced a nuanced day with mixed performances across various sectors. While the technology sector seems to be losing its previous momentum, evidenced by Microsoft (MSFT) declining by 0.44% and Oracle (ORCL) dropping by 0.62%, there is burgeoning resilience in other areas. Consumer cyclical sectors, notably Amazon (AMZN), saw a

Prior crude was +3454K Gasoline +816K vs -524K exp Distillates +579K vs-1398K exp Private data released late yesterday: Crude +2499K Gasoline -3238K Distillates -443K WTI crude oil was trading up 14-cents to $62.17 earlier. It had been up to $64.19 earlier on a report that Israel was considering attacking Iran’s nuclear facilities. This data is

The ECB will soon reach terminal rate if baseline holds. Interest rate cuts are nearing an end assuming inflation stabilises at 2% over the coming months. It’s important to analise alternative scenarios amid the trade uncertainty. If either inflationary or deflationary risk scenario materialises, monetary policy will react accordingly. The market sees the terminal rate

It’s been a bloodbath in the Japanese super-long bond market recently as yields continue to surge to record highs. Yesterday, the BoJ released briefing material used at its meeting with bond market participants and although there were different opinions, lower liquidity and demand for super-long bonds have been cited. Some market participants urged the BoJ

Different asset classes respond in different ways to various fundamental developments. You can have bonds selling-off because the central bank is tightening monetary policy or you can have an FX pair in an uptrend because the central bank of the currency that is appreciating is raising interest rates, while the central bank of the currency

The GBPUSD surged to its highest level since 2022 earlier today, driven by stronger-than-expected UK CPI data that reinforced hawkish rate expectations. The rally took the pair above both the 2024 high at 1.3433 (not shown) and the 2025 high at 1.34419, with the advance stalling at 1.34695. After peaking, the pair pulled back and

HSBC expects most G10 currency pairs to consolidate in the near term, as global trade uncertainty continues to recede and cyclical dynamics begin to reassert themselves. In a research note, the bank said further progress in trade negotiations could be supportive for the US dollar, even as structural concerns around the greenback persist. “The USD

What is happening with the US consumer? Last week, the market breathed a sigh of relief after Walmart maintained its annual sales forecast. The CFO said February was softer than expected, March was back to normal and April was very strong. But could the signal have been that higher-end consumers who usually shop at Target

The Reserve Bank of New Zealand launched its new Business Expectations Survey (BES) today with results for the June quarter 2025. BES is a quarterly release will be published ahead of each Monetary Policy Statement Says the Bank explainer:BES includes several hundred businesses from different sectors around the country, from small to large firms It

It’s going to be a boring day on the data front as we just have the UK CPI report on the agenda. The Core CPI Y/Y is expected at 3.6% vs. 3.4% prior, while the Services CPI Y/Y is seen at 4.8% vs. 4.7% prior. Just by looking at these numbers I really can’t understand

There are plenty of things going on in the economy, trade and politics at the moment that are worth watching closely but I believe the confluence of them all — and the single most important metric to watch — is the yield on long bonds. This year we’ve seen three tests of 5% and they

China commerce ministry: US measures on China’s advanced chips are ‘typical of unilateral bullying and protectionism’ US chip measures seriously undermine the stability of the global semiconductor industry chain and supply chain US abuses export controls to contain and suppress China, violates international law and basic norms Suspects US measures constitute discriminatory restrictive measures against

US House Speaker Johnson: We came to $40,000 SALT deduction cap agreement ECB’s de Guindos: 2% price goal to be reached sooner than later US MBA mortgage applications w.e. 16 May -5.1% vs +1.1% prior ECB’s Kazaks: The ECB will soon reach terminal rate if baseline holds ECB’s de Guindos: Equity valuations are high, credit

RBNZ inflation expectations survey: 1 yr CPI seen at 2.44% (prior 2.25) 2 yr 2.54% (2.47) Morgan Stanley raises China GDP forecast to 4.5% for 2025 amid easing trade tensions USD weakness extends G7 weighs joint tariffs on low-value Chinese imports amid overcapacity concerns ICYMI – China gold imports surge to 11-month high ICYMI –

Prior +1.1% Market index 238.5 vs 251.2 prior Purchase index 157.8 vs 166.5 prior Refinance index 682.5 vs 718.1 prior 30-year mortgage rate 6.92% vs 6.86% prior This is never a market moving release. Of course, as long term interest rates rise, mortgage applications fall. The mortgage market index and the US30Y yield are inversely

Interest rate to prevent inflation from falling under 2% may have to come below the neutral rate between 1.50-2.00% The market is pricing 1.64% as the low for ECB rates which is a bit more than 50 bps fully priced in. Getting helow his neutral range would mean at least one more cut on top

Japan trade data, April 2025 Trade Balance Total -115.8bn JPY expected +227.1bn, prior +559.4bn Imports -2.2% y/y expected -4.5%, prior +1.8% Exports +2.0% y/y expected +2.0%, prior + 4.0% All of the following are y/y for April: Exports to Asia +6% Exports to China -0.6% Exports to EU -5.2% Exports to U.S. -1.8% This article

A low key session ahead for data, but we have four Federal Reserve speakers lined up. 2100 GMT /1700 US Eastern time – Federal Reserve Board Governor Adriana Kugler gives commencement address before the Spring 2025 Berkeley Economics Commencement Ceremony 2300 GMT /1900 US Eastern time – Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco President Mary

People’s Bank of China USD/CNY reference rate is due around 0115 GMT. The People’s Bank of China (PBOC), China’s central bank, is responsible for setting the daily midpoint of the yuan (also known as renminbi or RMB). The PBOC follows a managed floating exchange rate system that allows the value of the yuan to fluctuate

Eurostoxx -0.2% Germany DAX -0.3% France CAC 40 -0.3% UK FTSE -0.1% Spain IBEX +0.0% We’ve seen some downside in stock indices triggered by the hot UK inflation data. European indices have been on an incredible rally since Trump’s tariffs pause on April 9 but inflation concerns could trigger a correction as the market would

2% price goal to be reached sooner than later. We can’t be complacent on fiscal risks for markets. Energy costs and the Euro to push inflation down. Some one-offs boosted Q1 GDP in Eurozone. New projections to go in ‘same direction’ as EU’s. Many risks we’ve flagged have become reality. I don’t have the same

Prior +2.6% Core CPI +3.8% vs +3.6% y/y expected Prior +3.4% Services CPI +5.4% vs +4.8% y/y expected Prior +4.7% Big upside surprise for UK inflation. The market will certainly reprice the rate cut expectations to something like 25-28 bps of easing by year-end (one rate cut) and even then I’m skeptical the BoE will

EUR/USD 1.1400 (EUR 1.09bn) 1.1390 (EUR 1.83bn) 1.1305 (EUR 1.23bn) 1.1270 (EUR 1.11bn) 1.1250 (EUR 2.02 bn) USD/JPY 144.50 (US$ 940mn) 142.00 (US$ 878mn) GBP/USD 1.3500 (GBP 432mn) 1.3420 (GBP 387mn) 1.3400 (GBP 537mn) 1.3265 (GBP 459mn) USD/CHF 0.8300 (CHF 545mn) 0.8250 (CHF 1.10bn) 0.8200 (CHF 425mn) 0.8100 (CHF 430mn) USD/CAD 1.4270 (US$ 1.12bn) AUD/USD

Federal Reserve Board Governor Adriana Kugler gives commencement address before the Spring 2025 Berkeley Economics Commencement Ceremony Old pic. – Earlier: Fed’s Bostic: More businesses say they can no longer delay tariff price hikes or job cuts Fed’s Musalem: Hearing that businesses and households are holding back from decisions Fed’s Musalem: Monetary policy currently is

In prop trading, factors like developing a strong psychology and mindset are as important in reaching financial goals as a successful strategy. Award-winning firm Ultimate Traders recognises this and prioritises this within its growing community by providing the education, tools, and technology for each challenge participant to trade at their own pace. This is not

Report is here: CNN is reporting that Israel is planning an attack on Iranian nuclear facilities In the report CNN cites unnamed US officials saying Israel planning an attack on Itanian nuclear facilities This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

CNN is reporting that Israel is planning an attack on Iranian nuclear facilities Final decision so far unclear CNN cite unnamed US officials — The yen is getting a wee bid on this news (flight to haven). CHF also. — Here we go, CNN: The US has obtained new intelligence suggesting that Israel is making

Equity valuations are high, credit spreads out of sync with risk. This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at www.forexlive.com.

Morgan Stanley has raised its China GDP growth forecast to 4.5% for 2025 (from 4.2%) and 4.2% for 2026 (from 4.0%), Morgan Stanley citing reduced tariff headwinds and an easing in global trade tensions. The analysts assume additional US tariffs will be capped at 30%, allowing Beijing to adopt more measured and delayed stimulus. Q4

In June, EC Markets will undertake initiatives that mark new, decisive steps in its worldwide expansion and consolidation within the financial sector. The company will play a leading role at the now established iFX Expo International 2025, which will be held from 17 to 19 June at the City of Dreams Mediterranean Resort in Limassol.

CNBC reporting on remarks from Musk on Tuesday: said AI data centres could face power capacity issues the middle to end of next year. said his artificial intelligence startup xAI is building a gigawatt-size data center outside Memphis, Tenn (a gigawatt is equivalent to the power capacity of the average nuclear plant in the U.S.)

Canada April CPI +1.7% y/y vs +1.6% expected Eurozone May flash consumer confidence -15.2 vs -16.0 expected Fed’s Musalem: Hearing that businesses and households are holding back from decisions Fed’s Bostic: More busiinesses say they can no longer delay tariff price hikes or job cuts Fed’s Musalem: Monetary policy currently is well positioned Kazakhstan has

Commonwealth Bank of Australia has brought forward its rate cut expectations, now pencilling in reductions in both August and September, as moderating inflation and softening wage growth increase the likelihood of earlier monetary easing by the Reserve Bank of Australia. “We continue to expect two further rate cuts this year, but now favour August and

The usual array of suspects is being cited: Moody’s downgraded the U.S. sovereign credit rating from Aaa to Aa1, citing concerns over rising federal debt and persistent fiscal deficits. It may yet have further US bond market implications. Trump’s proposed tax bill. The bill is projected to increase the national debt by $3 to $5

Group of Seven (G7) nations are in discussions over coordinated tariff measures targeting low-value Chinese imports, as Western economies grow increasingly wary of what they describe as Beijing’s non-market practices and industrial overcapacity. Canada’s Finance Minister François-Philippe Champagne confirmed that talks are underway among G7 members to address the surge in inexpensive Chinese goods, which

The airport has been beset by issues that haverve raised safety concerns. From the US Federal Aviation Administration statement: ** The FAA issued an interim order reducing the flight arrival and departure rate at Newark Liberty International Airport.Under the interim order issued Tuesday, the maximum hourly rate will be: 28 arrivals and 28 departures until

Mexican Economy Minister Marcelo Ebrard: cars assembled in Mexico and exported to the United States will face an average tariff of 15%, not 25% citing additional discounts that local products benefit from Reuters with the info. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

News out of Hong Kong ICYMI. Hong Kong pension fund managers have warned of potential forced selling of US Treasuries after Moody’s downgraded US debt, leaving only one remaining AAA rating from Japan’s R&I agency. Under Hong Kong’s Mandatory Provident Fund (MPF) rules, funds can only allocate more than 10% to Treasuries if the US

Via Politico: House Speaker Mike Johnson and a group of blue-state Republicans have reached a critical but tentative deal to boost the cap on state and local tax deductions to $40,000 in the GOP megabill, according to three Republicans with direct knowledge of the private agreement. However, GOP hard-liners and fiscal hawks who deeply oppose

Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland President Beth Hammack: Sentiment data about the economy concerning If the Fed faces challenges on inflation and unemployment it will be a difficult choice Will take more time to see how business decisions are influenced by trade policy Right now the best action for the Fed is to sit on

Bloomberg had this on Tuesday, citing Chinese customs data. I saw April gold imports data earlier this month, but this is more detailed. In summary: China imported the most gold in nearly a year last month, as strong investor demand and central bank policy shifts pushed bullion inflows sharply higher despite record prices. According to

Apple CEO Tim Cook met with Trump on Tuesday at the White House. Earlier this week Trump said he told Cook not to expand Apple’s manufacturing footprint in India. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

Good morning, afternoon and evening all. Any charts, technical analysis, trade ideas, thoughts, views, ForexLive traders would like to share and discuss with fellow ForexLive traders, please do so: This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

Via oilprice.com on Twitter: — Expectations I had seen centred on: Headline crude -1.3mn barrels Distillates -1.4mn bbls Gasoline -0.5 mn This data point is from a privately-conducted survey by the American Petroleum Institute (API). It’s a survey of oil storage facilities and companies The official report is due Wednesday morning US time. The two

JP Morgan’s FX strategy team expects the US dollar to face mild downward pressure in the near term, driven by portfolio rebalancing and increased currency hedging—particularly from countries with large exposure to US equities. In a research note, the bank identified Norway, Switzerland, Canada, Sweden, the UK, Australia, and Israel as having the largest US

The EURUSD has made a technical push higher in today’s session, breaking above both the key swing area between 1.12657 and 1.12754, and the 38.2% retracement of the April–May decline at 1.12754. That dual-level break gives buyers added control in the short term and confirms momentum shifting back in favor of the bulls. Yesterday’s high

We are in the midst of one of the all-time great divergences in markets right now. On the one hand, you have the BofA fund manager survey (and many other data points) showing that fund managers have been lightening up on the US and are as close to as bearish as they’ve been. On the

The price of June crude oil futures are settling down -$0.13 or -0.21% at $62.56. The high price reached $63.17. The low price was at $62.19. Looking at the hourly chart, the price on Monday moved back above its 100-hour moving average (the blue line on the chart above), and for most of the trading

The USD is little changed vs the EUR (-0.05%), JPY (-0.17%), and GBP (-0.06%) to start the US trading session. The USD is also marginally lower vs the CHF and the CAD. The biggest move in the US morning snapshot is versus the AUD with the dollar higher vs that currency aftet the RBA cut

If decisions have been somewhat paused I’d expect it to affect the economic outlook The impact of uncertainty on economic activity tends to be pretty meaningful Sides are getting dug in on what the tariff uncertainty really means. This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

India is discussing a US trade deal structured in three tranches Expects to reach an interim agreement before July Info comes via Bloomberg No further details as yet This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

Deutsche Bank’s latest “FX Blueprint” frames the summer narrative around two central calls: a structural turn lower in the US dollar and the re-emergence of the Japanese yen as the counter-punch. The note has 11 themes, including buying gold and EUR/CAD but I’ll highlight the main message. The top theme is titled “Breaking Benjamin” and

BofA highlights that corporate hedging behavior in G10 FX, particularly in EUR/USD, may shift meaningfully if the euro continues to strengthen. Corporates appear underhedged against EUR exposure, and further euro gains could prompt catch-up hedging, influencing spot markets. Key Points: Corporate flows dominate BofA’s proprietary FX flow data, but have been relatively light and directionless

A 25bp cash rate cut is almost unanimously expected. The latest set of forecasts I have seen have all analysts look for 25bp but two, who are looking for a 50bp rate cut. I’m on the 25bp, 50 seems a little extreme for a usually very timid RBA. Earlier: 75bp of Reserve Bank of Australia

We should not be dependent on how data turns out. We can’t assume that inflation pain of new economic shocks will go away. I agree with the MPC view that there is an easing in the labour market, question is about the pace. Some key pay indicators remain quite strong. I think he’s suggesting that

St. Louis Fed Pres. Musalem (2025 voter) is speaking and says: Monetary policy is currently well-positioned Balanced response to higher inflation, unemployment feasible if inflation expectations stay anchored. If inflation expectations become unanchor, Fed policy should prioritize price stability. US economy has underlying strength, labor market stable, inflation east but above 2% goal. Economic policy

The NZDUSD is currently caught in a technical stranglehold, with price action confined between a dense cluster of key moving averages across multiple timeframes. On the topside, rallies have repeatedly stalled near the 100-bar moving average on the 4-hour chart at 0.59273, a level that has served as firm resistance over the past two days.

The GBPUSD has reestablished a short-term bullish bias after a failed downside break last week. During that break, sellers had their shot as price moved below both the consolidation red box floor (see chart above), and then the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement (at 1.31603), but that break quickly reversed. The inability to sustain the move lower

Prior month 2.3% CPI m/m -0.1% versus -0.2% expected. Prior month +0.3% Core CPI m/m +0.5% versus +0.1% last month Core CPI y/y +2.5% versus 2.2% last month CPI Median y/y 3.2% versus 2.9% estimate. Last month 2.9% CPI Trim 3.1% versus 2.9% expected Last month 2.8% CPI Common 2.5% versus 2.3% last month The

The big surprise today wasn’t that the RBA cut rates but that they discussed going with a 50 basis point move. That has the market nearly fully priced for cuts at the next three meetings. In turn, the Australian dollar slumped and is the G10 laggard today. Despite that, the market has been taking a

Sector Overview The technology sector today paints a varied picture. Microsoft (MSFT) and Oracle (ORCL) are down 0.71% and 0.67% respectively, reflecting some bearish sentiments. Particularly hit is the semiconductor space, with Nvidia (NVDA) facing a decline of 2.02%, signalling caution from investors about tech valuations. In contrast, the consumer cyclical sector shows some resilience,

I don’t think nuclear talks with the US will be successful. US demand that Iran stops enrichment is outrageous. The US should avoid talking nonsense in talks. This headline gave crude oil prices a boost as the markets continue to bounce around amid the US-Iran nuclear deal. A positive resolution is seen as bearish (at

The US dollar is on the front foot in early New York trade. The pound is at a session low against the dollar, down 14 pips to 1.3343 after rising as high as 1.3394 at the start of European trade. AUD and NZD are also sliding after the RBA cut rates earlier and indicated there

When I analyze a chart, I look for technical levels that “do their job”—levels where the market consistently reacts. On the 10-year yield chart above, the 200-hour moving average has done just that. Over the past three tests, the yield has found reliable support at the 200-hour MA, with each bounce occurring at progressively higher

Fed: 54 bps (91% probability of no change at the upcoming meeting) ECB: 52 bps (93% probability of rate cut at the upcoming meeting) BoE: 45 bps (84% probability of no change at the upcoming meeting) BoC: 47 bps (64% probability of rate cut at the upcoming meeting) RBA: 73 bps (56% probability of rate

Closing changes on the day: German DAX, +0.3% France’s CAC +0.8% UK’s FTSE 100 +0.9% Spain’s IBEX +1.2% Italy’s FTSE MIB +0.8% Spanish stocks are up 23% from the Liberation Day low. This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

The Bank for International Settlements (BIS) has warned that growing U.S. financial volatility could spark a sudden scramble for dollars, particularly from non-bank investors holding vast off-balance-sheet FX swap positions. BIS official Hyun-Song Shin said more than $80 trillion in FX swaps—essentially short-term dollar debt—are held by funds and institutions outside the banking system. These

The USDCAD continues to trade in a narrow consolidation range, with price action toggling above and below the 100-hour (1.39607) and 200-hour (1.39501) moving averages — a sign of short-term indecision. In early North American trading, the pair briefly tested the 100-hour MA but failed to sustain gains, attracting sellers and keeping the near-term bias

There was so much noise over the weekend and yesterday about the Moody’s downgrade with even some doomsday scenarios. I’ve argued (here) that it was no big deal and just a symbolic thing. If you look at the US30Y chart now, the market erased the entire rise and we are basically back to where we

The implied odds of a Bank of Canada rate cut on June 4 have plunged to 36% from 65% following today’s CPI report. The main problem was that core measures rose 0.2-0.3 pp more than anticipated. “Diverging signals within today’s inflation data produces a real dilemma for the Bank of Canada,” writes CIBC following the

Mid-term inflation outlook too uncertain to say whether we need a June cut. ECB projections likely to show lower inflation this year and the next, but longer term is uncertain. I personally think the ECB shouldn’t cut in June and pause now to see how things evolve. There’s a scenario where they might have already

The PBoC reiterates implementation of loose monetary policy What are the current interest rates expectations for the major central banks? ECB’s Knot: Mid-term inflation outlook too uncertain to say whether we need a June cut More from BoE’s Pill: We should not be dependent on how data turns out Japan mulls accepting US tariff reduction,

South Korea end-March household credit marks fastest growth Y/Y since end-June 2022 Bank of Korea with the data. End-March household credit: +0.1% q/q vs +0.6% at end-Dec 2024 +2.5% y/y vs +2.1% at end-Dec 2024 This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

No one cares about the deficit. Today, Trump is on Capitol Hill speaking with Republicans and trying to push forward his budget bill. Yet he singled out one single Republican holdout: Thomas Massie and called for him to be voted out of office. Massie’s sin? He wants to see real deficit reduction. Several other reports

The yen is on the slide. Apart from what has been posted there is no fresh news. I’m trying to have a dig around, it’s a sharp move: This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

Vote against interest rate cut was a ‘skip’ within a continuing withdrawal of monetary policy restriction. Inflation pressure indicators give me cause for concern. Quarterly pace of 25 bps cuts seen since last summer is too rapid given the inflation outlook. My dissenting vote was favouring a ‘skip’ in the quarterly pattern of bank rate

UBS is advising investors to maintain a full strategic allocation to U.S. equities, even after the recent market rally and Friday’s U.S. credit rating downgrade by Moody’s to Aa1. In a note published Monday, the bank clarified that its recent downgrade of U.S. equities from “Attractive” to “Neutral” reflects short-term valuation concerns, not a bearish

The Teranet April Canadian house price index fell 1.5% in April in the fourth consecutive monthly decline, on a seasonally-adjusted basis. In year-over-year terms, prices eked out a 0.2% gain nationally after a 2.3% increase the month before. There is strength in Quebec while the Toronto area is struggling with the city down 3.5% y/y.

The EURUSD continues to trade within a well-defined range, with price action capped once again at the resistance zone between 1.1265 and 1.1275—a level that has repeatedly stalled upside attempts. Buyers briefly pushed through this zone yesterday, reaching a high at 1.1280, but failed to hold above, and the pair has since rotated lower. Despite

The RBA cut rate earlier today and the market is sensing that the Bank of Canada will continue to do the same. Their next meeting is June 4 and market pricing is now at 65% for a cut. A big swing in that could come at the bottom of the hour with Canadian inflation data

Some members said JGB market functionality improving as a trend due to BoJ’s taper. Other participants said there is distortion between super-long yields and yields for other maturities due to dwindling liquidity in super-long JGB market. Some market participants called for faster pace of BoJ taper from fiscal 2026 though others called for maintaining or

Prior was -16.6 This is a decent improvement but it’s still below every level from 2024. This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

Oil prices are under pressure after a Reuters reporting saying that Kazakhstan has boosted oil production by 2% so far this month. The country is in a battle with OPEC over compensatory cuts it’s promised but failed to deliver after over-producing quotas. The report cites an industry source. The higher production has led to OPEC

0800 GMT / 0400 US Eastern time: Bank of England Chief Economist Huw Pill gives a speech at Barclays briefing ‘The monetary policy outlook’ The Bank of England have been cutting its Bank Rate. The next meeting is due 19 June 2025. Perhaps we’ll get some guidance on the next likely move from Pill later.

The USDCHF is trading with a modest bearish tilt in the short term, as price remains capped below a key confluence zone around 0.8363. This level marks the intersection of the 100-hour and 200-hour moving averages, as well as a downward sloping trend line — making it a clearly defined bias-defining level. As long as

Crude oil futures are settling at $62.69, up $0.20 or 0.32% on the day. WTI and Brent opened lower due to risk-off sentiment after Moody’s downgraded the US However, A Trump-Putin phone call added a positive tone, helping limit downside pressure. Trump described the call as very informative, suggesting Russia and Ukraine will start ceasefire

Nippon Steel plans to invest $14 billion in U.S. Steel, including $4 billion for a new mill, as part of a last-ditch effort to win U.S. approval for its takeover. The proposed acquisition has drawn bipartisan opposition, with both President Biden and former President Trump arguing U.S. Steel should remain American-owned. A fresh national security

Data on inflation for the March quarter provided further evidence that inflation continues to ease. Staff forecasts released today project that while headline inflation is likely to rise over the coming year to around the top of the band as temporary factors unwind, underlying inflation is now expected to be around the midpoint of the

South Korea and the United States are holding a second round of technical discussions this week in Washington over the U.S.’s reciprocal tariff measures. The three-day session will begin Tuesday (local time) Both sides are working toward a “package” trade agreement, targeted for early July. Talks will cover six key issues — trade imbalances, non-tariff

People’s Bank of China USD/CNY reference rate is due around 0115 GMT. The People’s Bank of China (PBOC), China’s central bank, is responsible for setting the daily midpoint of the yuan (also known as renminbi or RMB). The PBOC follows a managed floating exchange rate system that allows the value of the yuan to fluctuate

Did discuss 25 bps or 50 bps cut. There’s more uncertainty than usual. This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at www.forexlive.com.

Will meet real economy’s financing needs. Will maintain reason growth of financial aggregates. Will increase efforts to support sci-tech innovation, boost consumption. Will support private economy, stabilise foreign trade. Will made good use of existing and incremental policies. Will strengthen monetary policy implmentation and transmission. Will promote international use of yuan. Will ‘resolutely’ safeguard national

Chinese state banks are cutting deposit rates today as previewed earlier: ICYMI – China’s state banks are expected to cut deposit rates today (Tuesday China time) So far we’ve had cuts announced from China Merchants Bank, China Construction Bank, ICBC, Bank of China. More now, from Agricultural Bank of China, Bank of Communications, and Postal

The AUD is lower across the board following the RBA decision. The statement was basically the same of what we’ve got in April although there’s more emphasis on trade policies risk. What weighed on the Aussie dollar was the negative revision in growth and inflation forecasts. The forecasts: GDP growth seen at 1.8% in June

China Merchants Bank with the cut. There should be many more of these announcement on the wat today, as posted earlier: ICYMI – China’s state banks are expected to cut deposit rates today (Tuesday China time) This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

Knot seems the most likely to be making comments pertinent to traders. All times listed below are GMT/US Eastern time: 1000/0600 Pre-recorded video interview with ECB board member Piero Cipollone during AsVis Sustainable Development Festival 1000/0600 ECB policy maker Klaas Knot speaks at a press conference at the Dutch central bank Also speaking, but likely

In the European session, the main event was the RBA policy decision. The central bank cut interest rates by 25 bps as expected but delivered some dovish messages. The RBA emphasised growth risk caused by trade policies and revised growth and inflation forecasts lower. The AUD got pushed lower after the release but started to

General Motors on Friday informed employees and dealers for its China export business that it would stop shipping vehicles to China from the United States, the company said. Nothing further re details at this stage. GM general motors CEO Mary Barra This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

Japan finance minister Kato: Will hold bilateral meetings with counterparts at G7 finance leaders’ meeting later this week Expect to discuss various topics, including FX, if I were to meet Bessent on sidelines of G7 gathering Will scrutinise impact of U.S. fiscal, monetary policy on Japan’s economy, when asked about Moody’s downgrade of US debt

Greg posted this news, not be to be missed (in case you did): China: US undermines consensus reached in Geneva talks. This was in response to the US Commerce Department saying use of Huawei’s Ascend AI chips violates the governments export controls. Keeping a lid on tariffs is in the interest of both the US

The times below ar GMT/US Eastern time, some of these listed will flow over into the Asian timezone Wednesday. Happy days 😉 1300/0900 Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta President Raphael Bostic gives welcome back remarks before the 2025 Financial Markets Conference – “Financial Intermediation In Transition: How Will Policy Adapt?” hosted by the Federal Reserve

The S&P is closing higher for the 6th gain in a row. The Dow is up for 3 days. The markets shook off the early-day declines due to the late Friday Moody’s downgrade of the US debt. The Dow was down -317 points at session lows, but is closing up 137.33 points or 0.32% at

Disinflation is on track, but new shocks are posing new challenges. Tariffs may be disinflationary in the short run but pose upside risks over the medium term. Appreciation of the Euro is historical opportunity to foster the international role of the Euro. This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at www.forexlive.com.

Prior was -0.7% PPI y/y -0.9% vs -0.6% expected Prior was -0.2% Lower energy prices were the main reason for the year-on-year decline in producer prices in April 2025. By contrast, non-durable and durable consumer goods, capital goods and intermediate goods were more expensive than in the same month of the previous year. When energy

Must now keep inflation down, well placed to do so. Board ready to take further action if required. This is a confidence cut in rates. This is the right cut for now, more adjustments are possible. Hearing from businesses that margins are being impacted. On alert for potential market crises. At the moment we are

Japan mulls accepting US tariff reduction, not exemption. Kyodo News is reporting the Japan is considering accepting a reduction in tariffs and not pushing too much for exemptions. The aim is to break through the stagnation in US-Japan trade talks. Japan’s top trade negotiator, Ryosei Akazawa, could travel to Washington as soon as next week

Eurostoxx +0.2% Germany DAX +0.2% France CAC 40 +0.2% UK FTSE +0.2% Spain IBEX +0.4% In the end, the Moody’s downgrade was indeed a nothingburger as expected. As the US session began yesterday, we saw markets reversing across the board and climbing to new highs. We can now go back to focusing on what really

EUR/USD 1.1300 (EUR1.43bn) 1.1250 (EUR1.17bn) 1.1245 (EUR1.20bn) 1.1195 (EUR2.30bn) USD/JPY 145.50 (US$1.20bn) 145.00 (US$1.12bn) GBP/USD 1.3350 (GBP250mn) USD/CHF 0.8325 (CHF585mn) USD/CAD 1.3915 (US$454mn) 1.3900 (US$398mn) AUD/USD 0.6350 (AUD367mn) NZD/USD 0.5915 (NZD522mn) For more information on how to use this data, you may refer to this post here. This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at

Opposition coalition splits. Nationals withdraw. National Party leader Littleproud: ending coalition with the Liberal Party National Party will sit alone on a principled basis Will work constructively with the Liberal Party This post for the locals here in Australia. For those not in Australia, the Nationals and Liberals have been in coalition for almost forever.

Good morning, afternoon and evening all. Any charts, technical analysis, trade ideas, thoughts, views, ForexLive traders would like to share and discuss with fellow ForexLive traders, please do so: This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

The Reserve Bank of Australia is expected to cut its cash rate target by 25 bps bringing it to 3.85% vs 4.10% prior. Focus will be on macro forecasts and forward guidance. I think the RBA will keep its neutral stance as it lowers the cash rate just as acknowledgement of inflation progress and as

US Treasury Secretary Bessent is not expected to attend the talks between Japan and US coming up Friday this week. Kyodo with the info. — Earlier from Japan: Japan finance minister Kato hints at plans to speak with Bessent on FX this week Akazawa: Japan, U.S. conducted working-level talks on bilateral trade on Monday …

Bank of Estonia Governor, and member of the European Central Bank Governing Council, Madis Müller, spoke in an interview. Bloomberg (gated) carried the report. In brief: Can’t rule out further reductions in rates Must be cautious as there’s no clear need yet to actively support economic growth Muller said he think interest rates are already

US stocks close marginally higher. S&P up for the sixth consecutive day US treasury does not anticipate any trade deal announcements at G7 meeting this week BOE Dhingra: Her vote for 50 bp cut was partly to make a statement on direction of economy Fed’s Bostic: Thinks rates in the US are mildly restrictive Crude

Another cascade of Federal Reserve speakers due on Tuesday US and Japan are expected to hold talks on Friday, May 23 South Korea end-March household credit marks fastest growth Y/Y since end-June 2022 European Central Bank’s Knot speaking on Tuesday (and three other ECB officials) Bank of England Chief Economist Huw Pill speaking Tuesday on

China state planner official: For Jan-April, the NDRC approved 27 fixed asset investment projects with a total investment of 573.7 billion yuan This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

The cuts were expected. The People’s Bank of China cut its 7 day reverse repo benchmark rate by 10bp to 1.4% earlier this month. Governor Pan Gongsheng said that 10 basis point cut would lead to a reduction in the benchmark loan prime rate (LPR) of the same size. Delivered today. LPRs are no longer

Japan economy minister Akazawa: Japan, U.S. conducted working-level talks on bilateral trade in Washington DC on Monday I mentioned yesterday that the election in Japan in July is going to be an issue for trade talks. Adam followed up on this Monday: More signs that the US-Japan trade agreement is on ice ps. Thats Akazawa

Fed’s Bostic: Thinks current US rates are mildly restrictive. Is sticking with his one rate cut view or 2025, but does depend on how the tariff situation plays out Hope that as the summer progresses, will get more clarity This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

Its been busy from China already, with rate cuts flowing in: More rate cuts coming from Chinese banks – as expected PBOC cuts Loan Prime Rates (LPRs) by 10bp for both 1- and 5-year loans The People’s Bank of China (PBOC), China’s central bank, is responsible for setting the daily midpoint of the yuan (also

The G7 meting listed in the calendar is the meeting opg G7 finance minister and central bankers. The People’s Bank of China will be setting their Loan Prime Rates (LPRs) today. Current LPR levels are: One-year LPR: 3.10% Five-year LPR: 3.60% These rates have remained unchanged since October 2024, when the PBOC implemented a 25

According to a source briefed on US preparations for G7 finance meeting in Canada: US treasury does not anticipate any trade deal announcements at G7 finance meeting in Canada. This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

China’s major state banks expected to cut their deposit rates today will cut rates on some fixed-term deposits no indication of the scale of the rate cuts has been given The cuts would be part of stimulus efforts from China. The People’s Bank of China cut its 7 day reverse repo benchmark rate by 10bp

The Nikkei reporting on moves from the Bank of Japan to seek market opinion on JGB buying amounts. At present the BoJ is planning to reduce JGB buying after Spring 2026, this plan is currently unchanged. For now. – The news comes as Japanese bond yields have been persistently rising. On of the factors supporting

Her vote for 50 basis point cut was partly to make a statement on direction of the economy might see some cost pass-through from US tariffs Argue that numbers would be quite small. Won’t rule out scenario where global trade breaks and UK suffers inflation, but don’t think that’s where we’re headed My working hypothesis

Minneapolis Fed Pres. Kashkari is speaking and reiterates the “uncertainty”: Coming into the year, economic conditions were good. There is big uncertainty now in the economy. Doesn’t know when tariff landscape will settle out. Businesses are holding off on investment amid uncertainty. This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

The EURUSD attempted a move higher earlier today but failed to sustain a break above the key swing area between 1.1265 and 1.1276. This zone, which had previously acted as a support floor and more recently as resistance, once again attracted sellers, leading to a downside reversal. Following the rejection at resistance, the pair has

People’s Bank of China USD/CNY reference rate is due around 0115 GMT. The People’s Bank of China (PBOC), China’s central bank, is responsible for setting the daily midpoint of the yuan (also known as renminbi or RMB). The PBOC follows a managed floating exchange rate system that allows the value of the yuan to fluctuate

Everyone is downplaying the Moody’s downgrade as either late or irrelevant but I’ll take the other side of that. In fact, what bothers me is that so many people in the administration and Congress are downplaying it. In a truly AAA-rated country, when there is a downgrade, there is a reckoning. I don’t see that

Trump on call with Russians Putin: Call went very well. Russia and Ukraine will immediately start negotiations toward a cease-fire Russia wants large trade with the US when war is over Can benefit from trade Negotiations will begin immediately. Vatican says it would be interested in hosting Russia Ukraine talks (HMMM) Germany, France, Italy, Finland

The major European indices closed mixed on the day. Italy’s FTSE MIB closed down -1.20% at 40166.76. The move to the downside took the price off the highest level going back to 2008 for the index. The German DAX rose 0.71% and closed at a new record high. A snapshot of the closing level shows:

The Kremlin is out with its accessment of the phone call between Putin and Trump: Putin and Trump both said they favoured normalisation of U.S.-Russia relations Putin and Trump discussed a possible Russia-U.S. prisoner swap Putin and Trump discussed exchanging nine Russian and nine U.S. prisoners Trump spoke quite emotionally about prospects for ties with

Fed’s Williams (speaking to reporters?) Uncertainty has led the Fed to keep interest rates steady so far this year. The path forward might not become clearer for months It’s not going to be that in June, we’re going to understand what’s happening more in July It’s going to be a process of collecting data, getting

According to the Russian press, the phone call between Russian Pres. Putin and US President Trump is over. The call was very informative and helpful The call lasted 2+ hours. Citing Putin: Russia favors a peaceful resolution of crisis Russia ready to work with Kiev on a memorandum on future peace talks Ceasefire is possible

The USDCHF is trading weaker to start the week as the U.S. dollar faces broad pressure following Moody’s downgrade of U.S. sovereign credit late Friday. From a technical perspective, Friday’s rally attempt failed to hold above the 100-hour moving average (blue line), and sellers have since taken the pair below the 200-hour moving average (green

VP Vance: We realize thes is a bit of an impasse in talke over war in Ukraine Putin does not seem to quite know how to get out of Ukraine war. If Russia not willing to engage, eventually US has to say this is not our war. This article was written by Greg Michalowski at

It’s kind of a synthetic Sunday today on the data front given the empty calendar. There’s just the final Eurozone CPI reading in the European session but it won’t be market moving unless we see big deviations. Fed speakers will be the main highlight today. It will be interesting to hear from them about consumer

The USDCAD is under pressure to start the new trading week, with sellers regaining more control following last weeks rejection of the 200-day moving average (green line currently at 1.40144). The pair had stalled near that level on two separate times last week, leading to renewed downside interest. After trading above and below the 100-hour

Bitcoin is benefitting from, among other factors, a weaker US dollar following the weekend. Moody’s downgrade: Friday bombshell: Moody’s downgrades US credit rating Bessent isn’t concerned. Given he oversees issuing US Treasuries, he probably should be. Downgrades will not lower the cost of debt! “If we go back to your initial question on the Moody’s

Chinese state banks will cut deposit rate on Tuesday according to Reuters. Recall the PBoC cut rates on May 7: Cut Reserve requirement ratio by 50 basis points Cut the policy interest rate by 10bps Cut standing lending facility rate by 10 basis points Along with other rates This article was written by Greg Michalowski

New Zealand services PMI, the BusinessNZ Performance of Services Index, for April 2025, 48.5 down from March’s 49.1 well below the average of 53.0 over the history of the survey BusinessNZ’s CEO, Katherine Rich said the sector has fallen back into a pattern of mild contraction BNZ’s Senior Economist Doug Steel: “for all the commentary

It’s been a rough day for the US Dollar so far. This is just the daily trend that was set earlier in the morning. The “good news” for the greenback is that we might have reached the peak in the bearish momentum today. In the EURUSD chart below, we can see that the price is

Bank of Japan Deputy Governor Uchida: will keep raising interestt rates if economy, prices improve in line with our forecast uncertainty surrounding each country’s trade policy extremely high Japan’s underlying inflation likely to re-accelerate after period of slowdown in growth mindful that recent rise in prices have negative impact on consumption This article was written

Fund managers haven’t felt the FOMO yet. All year, retail investors have been piling into stocks while fund managers have lightened up. With the huge rebound in stocks, many fund managers are no doubt wishing they had bought the dip but the latest survey from Bank of America shows they’ve remained cautious, with allocations to

The major US stock indices are opening lower after the Moody’s downgrade in other weekend news. The White House is stripping about other deals. China is upset about Chip restrictions. Israel is not looking to peace. Russia’s Putin is not cooperating. US House comes to a agreement on the budget deal. A snapshot of the

SNB Chairman Schlegal is on the wires saying: SNB will tolerate negative inflation rate in the short term Uncertainty is currently very high. Swiss franc is often sought as a safe haven in times of uncertainty Policy rate is our main instrument, but when necessary we can intervene int he forex market. The outlook for

US-EU trade talks are being delayed by internal EU disagreements on how to approach a deal. The process still appears far from completion, according to White House sources. The situation remains fluid, and developments could change quickly. While the China deal happened faster than expected, this case looks more complex. Meanwhile, WH Hassett is saying

Sector Overview The US stock market today exhibits a diversified portfolio of trends, as revealed by the latest heatmap snapshot. Technology stands out marginally in the green, while energy and major consumer stocks face notable downward pressure. 📊 Technology: Microsoft (MSFT) leads the tech sector with a slight increase of 0.29%, reflecting a cautious optimism

Ishiba drops a big comment! Japan financial situation worse than Greece Against funding tax cuts with JGBs USD/JPY update, not a lot moved on the ‘worse than Greece’ remark: This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

What Price Will Bitcoin Hit in May? Polymarket Bets Provide Insight As investors and traders navigate the volatile crypto market, many ask, “What price will Bitcoin hit in May?” Prediction markets such as Polymarket have gained popularity by offering speculative insight through aggregated bets, potentially indicating the market’s collective sentiment. Currently, Polymarket’s betting data for

China has issued a statement on US adjusting chip export controls: US undermines consensus reached in Geneva talks Asks US to correct wrongdoings. China bows to take measures if US insists on going its own way. The comments come in response to the US Commerce Department saying use of Huawei’s Ascend AI chips violates the

There have been lots of people cheering for the Bitcoin rally over the weekend saying that events like the US credit rating downgrade are bullish for the cryptocurrency. Unfortunately for them, Bitcoin is just another risk asset and, given similar drivers, it’s correlated to the stock market. On the 4 hour chart below, we can

UK and EU also agree security and defence partnership. The partnership paves way for UK firms to access EU’s 150bln pound defence fund. Sanitary and phytosanitary deal has no time limit. Closer co-operation on emissions trading systems will mean UK businesses not hit by EU carbon tax. UK economy to add nearly 9 bln pounds

On Monday, Canada has a bank holiday for Victoria Day, and in the U.S., several FOMC members are expected to deliver remarks. On Tuesday, the focus will be on the RBA monetary policy announcement, followed later in the day by Canadian inflation data. On Wednesday, the U.K. will release its inflation data and on Thursday,

UK Government releases further details of EU reset deal Fed’s Bostic: Moody’s downgrade will cut across economics, financial markets Kremlin: Putin, Trump to hold phone call at 17:00 Moscow time on Monday Eurozone April final CPI +2.2% vs +2.2% y/y prelim SNB total sight deposits w.e. 16 May CHF 443.18 bn vs CHF 453.24 bn

A US-Japan trade deal is not at all imminent. There are still strong sticking points, such as Ishiba’s reluctance to accept Trump’s tariffs on Japanese autos. A local issue for Japan is Japan’s upper house election due in July. Ishiba: cannot accept United States tariffs including for cars seeking a win-win deal with the US,

The AUDUSD is starting the week on stronger footing, benefiting from broad U.S. dollar weakness following Friday’s Moody’s downgrade of the U.S. sovereign credit rating. From a technical perspective, the AUDUSD has extended above both the 100-hour (0.64228) and 200-hour (0.64327) moving averages, signaling a more bullish bias in the short term. The price has

Kremlin: Putin, Trump to hold phone call at 17:00 Moscow time on Monday. This is at 14:00 GMT or 10:00 ET. Trump will likely push for a ceasefire until they get a peace deal but the Russians don’t seem on the same page. This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at www.forexlive.com.

There was a report in the FT last week indicating that US-Japan trade negotiations were on hold and would likely stay that way through the July Japanese elections. Kowtowing to the US ahead of July elections would be deeply unpopular in Japan and it looks like they’re going to punt until afterwards, even at the

Africa’s largest trading summit is almost here. If you’re in trading, fintech, payments, or crypto, this is the moment to lock in your place at the premier financial markets event connecting Africa to the world. Thousands of professionals are already confirmed. Decision-makers, innovators, regulators, and regional executives will all be in attendance, and if you’re

Prior +2.2% Core CPI +2.7% vs +2.7% y/y prelim Prior +2.5% No changes to the initial estimates. The market is pricing 91% chance of another 25 bps cut at the June ECB meeting and a total of 51 bps of easing by year-end. The June cut might be hard to avoid, but it might also

New York Fed president John Williams is speaking to the Mortgage Bankers Association in New York City. Williams is a permanent voting member on the Federal Reserve Board: Recent economic data has been very good. Labor market is pretty much in balance First quarter growth was unusual trade issues Inflation has been coming down slowly

WH Hassett is saying: Would not be surprised if there are more trade deals this week We’ll keep a close eye on what Chinese have agreed to The Debt ceiling will go up wiht a beautiful bill US debt is the safest bet on earth. Moody’s downgrade should not be a surprise to the markets.

Prior month -0.7% revised to -0.8% Leading index -1.0% versus -0.9% estimate 38 or 41 months have been negative. The -1.0% is the loweest since March 2023 Other details from the Census department: LEI (Leading Economic Index): Fell sharply by 1.0% in April 2025 to 99.4 (2016=100) March decline revised to -0.8% (from -0.7%) Down

Moody’s downgrade will cut across economics, financial markets. Downgrade will have implications for cost of capital, could ripple through economy. Will have to wait and see about impact of downgrade on demand for US debt. The Fed will have to determine how the downgrade effects an outlook that is already in flux. It’s unclear if

US Treasury Secretary Bessent spoke with CNN on Sunday. He was forthright with his threat to foreign countries that Trump’s tariff will jump back a “reciprocal” level if trade deals are not reached with the US: “Trump has put them on notice that if you do not negotiate in good faith, you will ratchet back

The Canadian dollar is lagging today and a portion of that is likely due to the local holiday. Canadian markets are closed today for Victoria Day. It’s also an unofficial holiday for the large part of the country that can’t stand the Toronto Maple Leafs as they were routed in a playoff elimination game yesterday.

Domestic sight deposits CHF 434.8 bn vs CHF 444.8 bn prior This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at www.forexlive.com.

The USD is lower to start the trading week as investors sell US stocks, bonds after the Moody’s downgrade of US debt late Friday. The USD is down -0.90% vs the EUR, and -0.81% vs the GBP. to start the session The greenback is down -0.42% vs the JPY. The video above outlines the technical

The US Dollar opened lower today and after a bit of a consolidation during the Asian session, started to depreciate again in the European session. The Moody’s downgrade is cited as the culprit although there are also other drivers. One above all is that the market has repriced interest rates expectations for the Fed to

FOMC Gov. Jefferson is speaking and says: The impact of tariffs on the Fed’s mandate is top of mind. The risks to the Fed’s mandates depends on policy choices by the administration that have not been made. There are risks to both jobs and inflation, but given uncertainty it is appropriate to wait and see

China new home prices for April 2025 0.0% m/m change (Reuters calculation) prior also 0.0% -4.0% y/y (Reuters calculation) prior -4.5% Poor figures again for China’s housing sector. At best, the y/y is not as bad as it was in March. After so many declines for the sector I guess no change m/m is better

White House: World has confidence in the US economy Trump disagrees with Moody’s assessment Trump held to direct talks with House’s Johnson over the weekend. Will continue to be engaged with house and Senate This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

I posted the early rate indications here: Monday open levels, indicative FX prices, 19 May 2025 It was a busy weekend for news: The weekend news hasn’t been great for market confidence UK PM Starmer expected to announce Brexit ­”reset” deal on Monday. (Is Brexin the word?) Australian PM Albanese says he’s “up for a

Fed’s Williams speaks Monday on economic outlook. Bostic, Logan and Kashkari speak also, China NBS spokesman (more): Will strengthen policy coordination China NBS spokesman (more): Foreign trade overcame difficulties, maintained steady growth Japan fin min Kato says Japan not facing problem getting funds via debt issuance Centrist Victory in Romania Defeats Far-Right Candidate: A Democratic

Eurostoxx -0.3% Germany DAX -0.1% France CAC 40 -0.3% UK FTSE -0.2% Spain IBEX +0.1% There’s been a bit of a risk-off mood throughout the Asian session with the Moody’s downgrade cited as the culprit. This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at www.forexlive.com.

Everyone is talking about the Moody’s downgrade and there are of course the usual doomsday-like opinions spreading. In my opinion, this is no big deal. It’s more of a symbolic thing. The S&P Global Ratings downgraded the US in 2011 and Fitch did so in 2023. Why should we care now about Moody’s downgrade? Some

EUR/USD 1.1150 (EUR375mn) USD/JPY 145.00 (US$474mn) 145.55 (US$510mn) 146.50 (US$1.16bn) 147.00 (US$1.50bn) GBP/USD 1.3300 (GBP559mn) USD/CHF 0.8420 (CHF159mn) USD/CAD 1.3985 (US$587mn) 1.3675 (US$529mn) AUD/USD 0.6525 (AUD563mn) 0.6480 (AUD310mn) 0.6355 (AUD595mn) NZD/USD 0.5915 (NZD1.06bn) For more information on how to use this data, you may refer to this post here. This article was written by Giuseppe

Biden will be reviewing treatment options. We wish him well. Statement from Biden’s office: Last week, President Joe Biden was seen for a new finding of a prostate nodule after experiencing increasing urinary symptoms. On Friday, he was diagnosed with prostate cancer, characterized by a Gleason score of 9 (Grade Group 5) with metastasis to

Chinese economic activity data for April 2025 is mixed. The beat for industrial production is welcome. Its not as strong as the March results, but that month was characterised by a surge ahead of worsening tariffs. The retail sales result is positive, but a miss. Strionger domestic demand in China would be welcome. More: Surveyed

Prior -0.9% (revised to -0.3%) This indicator measures the change in output in the service (tertiary) sector of the Japanese economy. It’s not a market moving release. This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at www.forexlive.com.

Japan’s Agriculture Ministry has suspended imports of poultry meat from Brazil’s Montenegro City following bird flu outbreak has suspended imports of live poultry from state of Rio Grande do Sul in Brazil following bird flu outbreak+ This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

Official results from half of polling stations showed Dan with around 50.5% of votes Exit polls published right after voting ended had him at 54-55% Dan is pro-EU and NATO, unlike the far-right candidate he was up against. The election in Romania took place nearly six months after the initial ballot was cancelled because of

Centrist Victory in Romania: A Democratic Signal Amid Europe’s Rightward Drift Global News Update – Romania Presidential Runoff Independent centrist and Bucharest mayor Dikurser Dan has defeated far-right candidate George Simeon in Romania’s presidential runoff, securing over 54% of the vote. This win came amid the highest voter turnout in 25 years, showing a rare

S&P 500 E-mini Futures Analysis for Today – May 19, 2025 Current Price: 5931.00 Change from Friday Close: Approximately -0.75% At the time of this analysis, S&P 500 E-mini futures (ES) are already trading below a critical bearish threshold, as defined by today’s tradeCompass. Price action under 5947.0 confirms we are currently in bearish territory,

European Central Bank forecast from Barclays. The ECB’s next monetary policy meeting is scheduled for June 5, 2025. Market expectations suggest a high probability of another 25 basis point cut, potentially bringing the deposit rate down to 2.00%. This outlook is influenced by concerns over global trade tensions and their impact on eurozone inflation and

Weekend – Bloomberg reporting that Binance and Kraken are said to have been targets of Coinbase-like hack attacks. The firms appear to have lost some customer data in the attacks. Reports are conflicting, though, with other reports noting that both platforms repelled the attacks ensuring no customer data was lost, BTC update, hourly candles: This

China National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) spokesman: Ability of foreign trade enterprises to develop market has increased, have strong adjustment capabilities during trade friction and fluctuations China has the conditions, ability and confidence to deal with various challenges Necessary to see that the current overall low prices will increase the pressure on enterprises and affect

EU and UK said to reach outline deal to strengthen ties. EU-UK deal agreed by negotiators, needs political sign off. The EU and UK will meet today in London for the first official summit since Brexit. The meeting is to pave the way for closer ties between both sides. Here you can find earlier news.

US House panel approve Trump tax cut bill, setting up a possible vote on passage this week Note, this isn’t the vote, that’s yet to come as the headline says. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

China National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) spokesman: We need to recognize that the internal driving force for investment growth is ‘obviously insufficient’ We need to improve the efficiency of investment and continue to optimize the structure of investment Foreign trade overcame difficulties and maintained steady growth in April, demonstrated strong resilience and international competitiveness The

Rightmove property website data for UK house asking prices, May 2025: +0.6% m/m prior +1.4% +1.2% y/y prior +1.3% The average price has moved to a new record high but the slowest monthly rise for the time of year in nine years highest number of homes for sale in a decade demand in April was

International environment now still complex and severe, domestic cyclical and structural contradictions are intertwined But there are many favorable conditions for sustained economic recovery Although external impact increased in April, the trend of economic recovery did not change Gradual implementation of policies will be conducive to the sustained recovery and improvement of the economy As

Goldman Sachs Research expects the US dollar to weaken as trade tensions, policy uncertainty, and slowing GDP growth weigh on investor confidence and foreign demand for US assets. “The US dollar’s weakness against its major peers during the first quarter of 2025 is anticipated… to persist,” with GS forecasts of a 10% drop against the

Comments from an official at China’s National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) Productivity demand grew steadily employment situation generally stable economy grew steadily in face of pressure, continues developing in an upward trend China actively diversifying, expanding trade with Belt and Road initiative nations The comments follow the April economic data release, a mixed bag: China

Good morning, afternoon and evening all. Any charts, technical analysis, trade ideas, thoughts, views, ForexLive traders would like to share and discuss with fellow ForexLive traders, please do so: This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

The People’s Bank of China (PBOC), China’s central bank, is responsible for setting the daily midpoint of the yuan (also known as renminbi or RMB). The PBOC follows a managed floating exchange rate system that allows the value of the yuan to fluctuate within a certain range, called a “band,” around a central reference rate,

The times listed below are GMT/US Eastern time: 1230/0830 Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta President Raphael Bostic gives welcome remarks before the 2025 Financial Markets Conference – “Financial Intermediation In Transition: How Will Policy Adapt?” hosted by the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta 1245/0845 Federal Reserve Bank of New York President John Williams speaks on

Moody markets! (Ugh, terrible pun, apologies 😉 …. Friday bombshell: Moody’s downgrades US credit rating ) Equity index futures: ES down 0.7% NQ down 0.9% For bonds, 30 year T futures down 21 ticks 10 year down 7 ticks — Big gap down for S&P 500 futures. This chart is a CFD that tracks ES

Earlier post on this here: Eyes on Euro politics – Romania centrist Dan appears on course to win Romanian presidency Update now: Dan ahead with 54.3% of the votes 97% counted This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

Japan finance minister Kato: Japan not facing problem procuring funds from market via debt issuance If Japan loses market trust in its finances, it may face rise in interest rates that could affect debt redemption Losing market trust in Japan’s finances could trigger weak yen, excessive inflation that would have severe impact on economy This

New Zealand first quarter 2025 producer price index PPI Input +2.9% q/q prior -0.9% PPI Output +2.1% prior –0.1% — Stats NZ summary: The largest output industry contributions were from: electricity, gas, water and waste services, up 26.2 percent manufacturing, up 2.3 percent rental, hiring and real estate services, up 1.4 percent. The largest input

The speech listed from Federal Reserve Bank of New York President John Williams is a commencement address before the Hofstra University Graduate Commencement, in Hempstead, N.Y. 2120 GMT / 1720 US Eastern time So far there hasn’t been anything crossing news wires on this. It seems an unlikely venue for a policy-related speech, so its

Good morning, afternoon or evening to all ForexLive traders and welcome to the start of the new FX week. Indicative rates, only a little change from late Friday: EUR/USD 1.1186 USD/JPY 145.31 GBP/USD 1.3280 USD/CHF 0.8367 USD/CAD 1.3974 AUD/USD 0.6404 NZD/USD 0.5885 It was an active weekend for news ICYMI: The weekend news hasn’t been

The weekend started off with a bang as the US credit rating was downgraded by Moody’s late in the day. That will start things on a soft footing but a few developments afterwards also aren’t promising: 1) Bessent’s reaction to the downgrade When he campaigned for the job of Treasury Secretary, Scott Bessent repeatedly highlighted

Australian Prime Minister Albanese responded to questions from media, the Australian Financial Review (gated) , on Saturday. will attend Pope Leo XIV’s inauguration mass in Rome will meet with European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen on the sidelines will renew leader-level discussions for an Australia-European free trade deal Australia would not strike a deal

The UK Times (gated) interview with Prime Minister Starmer. From the report (bolding is mine): The prime minister is expected to ­announce broad plans for a youth mobility deal on Monday as part of a wider agreement with the European Union The deal will bring Britain into the closest alignment with the EU since Brexit

ECB President Christine Lagarde says the euro’s recent appreciation against the dollar—despite global uncertainty—is “counterintuitive, but justified” by a growing loss of confidence in U.S. policymaking. Lagarde spoke in an interview with French media, La Tribune Dimanche, published on Saturday: “It’s impressive to note that in a period of uncertainty when we should normally have

The recent decision by U.S. President Donald Trump to accept a luxurious Boeing 747-8 airplane valued at approximately $400 million from Qatar has ignited significant controversy in the United States, drawing legal, ethical, and political scrutiny. Many are asking: Is it legal for Trump to accept the airplane gift? Qartar’s Airplane Gift and Its Status

Mon: Canadian Holiday (Victoria Day), EU-UK Summit; Chinese Industrial Output (Apr), Retail Sales (Apr), House Prices (Apr), EZ HICP Final (Apr) Tue: PBoC LPR, RBA Policy Announcement, Norges Bank Financial Stability Report; EZ Current Account (Mar), Consumer Confidence Flash (May), Canadian CPI (Apr), German PPI (Apr), New Zealand Trade (Apr) Wed: Japanese Trade Balance (Apr),UK

Latvian central bank governor, and therefore a Governing Council member of the European Central Bank, Martins Kazaks spoke on Friday with CNBC, ICYMI: In brief, he said on Friday that interest rates may be close to their terminal level, though uncertainty remains high and further changes to the policy outlook are possible: “We are, by

European Central Bank Board Member Schnabel spoke on Saturday, expressing a cautious approach to further rate cuts. Schnabel cited lingering uncertainties from global trade tensions and inflation dynamics. “We need to maintain a steady hand for now” warned that falling energy prices and slowing global growth may lower inflation in the short term but could

A Penny Stock – API Isotopes (ASPI) Conversation: Balancing Risk, Reward, and Reality (And You Can Also Check out ASPI Stock) Investing is often discussed in dry terms of charts, analysis, and percentages, but let’s step away from that and eavesdrop on a candid and lively conversation between two seasoned investors, John and Mike. Friends

UMich May prelim consumer sentiment 50.8 vs 53.4 expected US April housing starts 1.361m vs 1.365m expected US April import prices +0.1% vs -0.4% expected Japan not keen for compromise in US trade talks Trump tax bill fails in House panel Baker Hughes US oil rig count -1 Federal Reserve said to plan cuts of

The FT reports that the US and EU have begun trade talks after recently exchanging negotiating documents that touch on tariffs, digital trade and investment. The report says USTR Greer threatened the EU with reapplying 20% tariffs. This is going to be a tough one as many European leaders are saying they will not accept

The US government is in the middle of discussing a generational tax cut and Moody’s just voted. The ratings agency downgraded the full faith and credit of the USA to Aa1 from Aaa. That means that all three ratings agencies have now removed the US top rating. The drop comes a year after Moody’s lowered

The big week for stock markets on the US-China climb-down is continuing late on Friday. The S&P 500 has edged to a fresh session high up 33 points, or 0.6%. Trading has been lighter late in the week but the momentum trade has continued to work. Technically, there isn’t much (anything?) standing in the way

The S&P 500 started off the week on a positive note as US-China tariffs were slashed. The buying never really stopped as the index climbed every day this week. Friday’s changes: S&P 500 +0.7% Nasdaq Comp +0.45% Russell 2000 +0.9% DJIA +0.7% S&P TSX Comp +0.3% On the week: S&P 500 +5.1% Nasdaq Comp +7.0%

Monday (May 19) Markets closed for Victoria Day – nothing scheduled. Tuesday (May 20) – CPI day GoC bill auctions: 3-mth C$17.6 bln, 6-mth C$6.2 bln, 1-yr C$6.2 bln. 08:30 ET – April CPI (consensus) Headline m/m -0.2 % (prior +0.3 %) Headline y/y 1.6 % (prior 2.3 %) Core Median y/y 2.9 % (prior

It’s a light week on the economic calendar with the S&P PMIs as the only real market movers. I expect more ‘wait-and-see’ from the Fed speakers. Aside from what’s listed here, we will be waiting for the US to strike some trade deals and House Republicans are aiming to pass Trump’s budget. Note that the

The opportunity to buy 30-year Treasuries yielding 5% briefly presented itself this week for the fourth time this year. All the other attempts were quickly beaten back and that same knee-jerk unfolded this time, driving yields to as low as 4.86% today. The UMich report though seemed to underline ongoing angst about inflation and led

Goldman Sachs raises its 12-month target for MSCI Asia-Pacific ex-Japan to 660 from 620 — The MSCI Asia-Pacific ex-Japan Index is a widely followed stock market benchmark that: Tracks the performance of large- and mid-cap stocks across developed and emerging markets in the Asia-Pacific region excluding Japan. Includes countries such as China, South Korea, Taiwan,

The nomination period for the UF AWARDS Global 2025 is coming to an end on 30th of May, which means your window for recommending your brand as a nominee is quickly closing! The UF AWARDS and their recipients receive an incredible level of coverage within the industry. Meaning that even brands that don’t win still

Credit Agricole warns that EUR/USD has rallied too far, too fast, leaving it exposed to multiple downside risks. With market optimism running ahead of fundamentals, the Euro may struggle to hold its recent gains in the face of slowing inflows, geopolitical fragility, and macroeconomic headwinds. Key Points: Slowing Equity Inflows:European equity inflows have started to

The vote failed in the Budget Committee, 16-21. There is a strong belief in markets that they will twist the right arms in order to get it through when it matters. As it stands, this is putting the US on the path to another 1 or 1.5 percentage point increase in the deficit, or above

Someone the Federal Reserve system employs 26,000 people. That seems like an awful lot of people to manager currency, process checks and supervise. I think they’ll be fine with a 10% haircut. This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

Well, that’s a long enough delay. The talks were supposed to begin at around 0900 GMT. But earlier, Russia’s Medinsky had talks on the side with the US before this. There were also some alleged pushback as seen here, but at least now we’re starting to get this over and done with. This article was

The US has told Vietnam that Vietnam’s trade deficit is unsustainable a major concern amid tariff talks Vietnamese Prime Minister Pham Minh Chinh This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

Closing changes on the day: German DAX, +0.2% France’s CAC +0.3% UK’s FTSE 100 +0.6% Spain’s Ibex +0.8% Italy’s FTSE MIB +0.4% On the week: German DAX, +1.1% France’s CAC +1.7% UK’s FTSE 100 +1.5% Spain’s Ibex +3.6% Italy’s FTSE MIB +3.1%. The Liberation Day declines have been nearly erased everywhere and Italy, Spain and

Prior was 52.2 Current conditions 57.6 vs 59.6 expected Expectations 46.5 vs 48.0 expected 1-year inflation 7.3% vs 6.5% prior 5-year inflation 4.6% vs 4.4% prior This is a poor reading. I would have expected to see some recovery after Trump reversed the Liberation Day tariffs but that didn’t show up in this round. The

Putin’s Absence Raises Prospect of New Sanctions – Oil Traders Stay Alert Vladimir Putin’s recent absence from scheduled peace talks in Turkey, intended to address the ongoing conflict with Ukraine, has escalated geopolitical tensions and raised speculation about the potential for harsher U.S. sanctions against Russia. Traders and investors are now closely watching developments as

When you look at rising interest rates, you need to distinguish what is the driver behind it because it can change the market outcomes. When interest rates rise due to growth expectations, you have a positive outcome for the stock market. That’s because earnings expectations improve and investors tolerate higher rates because they anticipate stronger

Maybe? Talks seemed to wrap up too quickly for anything substantive though. We’ll wait to hear more. This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

Switzerland is not a currency manipulator. We have only acted to dampen the overvaluation of the Franc which threatened price stability. Currency market interventions are not about gaining a competitive advantage for Switzerland. Technical experts in the US understand the Swiss position. Just a couple of remarks on currency intervention. The SNB and the BoJ

Total rigs down 2 to 576. It’s the third consecutive weekly drop in rigs. The oil market is in flux at the moment as OPEC brings back more barrels than anticipated and Trump zig-zags on trade policy. Natural gas is looking healthier though with days of US supply down about 18% y/y. This article was

While a temporary truce between the U.S. and China has offered some relief to markets, BofA maintains a bearish outlook on the dollar. The recent bounce is seen as tactical rather than structural, with longer-term headwinds intact. Key Points: Policy uncertainty persists:The pause in trade tensions is temporary. Policy direction remains erratic and could reintroduce

Japan finmin Kato: Convinced that Bessent is a reliable counterpart able to have constructive dialogue, will continue to closely coordinate with him Reaffirmed with Bessent in talks on April 24 that excessive Forex volatility has averse impact on economy Will continue talks with him based on this understanding Will seek to have a meeting with

Even before Trump’s tariff war hit in full Japan’s economy shrunk: Japan Q1 GDp -0.2% q/q (expected -0.1%) While everyone around the globe was cranking up exports ahead of the tariffs and jamming the pipelines to the us … Japan exports were -0.6% q/q. As I post USD/JPY is showing just a touch lower, but

The US dollar is bid across the board at the moment as yields rebound from earlier lows. US 2-year yields were at 3.92% earlier today but have ticked up to 3.96%. The market has grown more-hesitant about pricing in rate cuts after the UMich consumer sentiment report showed a surge in inflation expectations. One-year inflation

Headlines: Trump says US officials will send letters out soon to countries for trade deals US-China trade truce should be extended, says Global Times South Korea delegation to visit US next week for further tariff negotiations South Korea says there is possibility trade deal might come after 8 July deadline What are the interest rates

This was out earlier but it’s an important development: The FT reports that Japan is holding out for a better deal with the US, including a full removal of 25% auto tariffs. It says a deal is now unlikely to be reached before elections due in late July, which is beyond the 90-day delay the

March factory orders revised to +3.4% from +4.3% Ex transport to -0.4% from -0.2% Nondefense capital goods orders ex air -0.2% vs +0.1% The amount of times this report is revised is dizzying but this will be a drag on Q1 GDP when it’s revised. This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

Economic growth may be 1% or 0.5% this year. Expect slower growth but recession isn’t in my outlook. May have to push against inflation pressures from tariffs. US-China de-escalation changes my outlook ‘a little’. Bostic has been a hawk for quite some time and he’s not a voter this year. Nonetheless, this might be the

Singapore’s non-oil domestic exports jumped 12.4% in April compared to a year earlier, far exceeding expectations and marking a sharp acceleration from March’s 5.4% rise. The latest figures, released Friday by Enterprise Singapore, showed strong gains across both electronic and non-electronic shipments. The result came well above the 4.3% year-on-year increase forecast in a Reuters

Both of these are after markets close: 2200 GMT/1800 US Eastern time: Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond President Thomas Barkin gives commencement address at Vance-Granville Community College 0140 GMT/2140 Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco President Mary Daly gives commencement address at the College of Western Idaho This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at

Protectionism and uncertainty are having a negative impact on US economic confidence My guess is that he’s commenting on the euro’s recent showing against the dollar in comparison. I think ECB policymakers can take in some comfort that EUR/USD did ease off from a high of around 1.1500 in April. But as the trade conflict

Sector Overview Today’s stock market presents a mixed bag of performances across various sectors. Let’s delve into each area to understand the driving forces behind the numbers. 📈 Communication Services: Google (GOOG) surged by 1.98%, highlighting a strong performance in this sector. However, Meta (META) faced a decline of 1.69%, indicating divergent investor sentiments within

Your Go-To Trading Dictionary: The 2025 Edition Whether you interpret price charts or read through market commentary, fluency in key terms is essential for new traders as it enables them to build a robust foundation of knowledge for sustained success in trading. Octa broker presents this 2025-ready glossary that unites classic concepts and trending terms

From what I understand, Russia asked for Ukraine unconquered territory so the question is whether Ukraine wants to keep talking. This is from Axios: The Russian delegation demanded the complete withdrawal of the Ukrainian Armed Forces from 4 regions, and when the Ukrainians refused, ours stood up and declared that next time they would have

A piece in today’s Australian Financial Review on Australia not joining in on Trump’s trade attack on China. Trade Minister Don Farrell spoke in an interview with the AFR (gated): reluctant to be part of a US campaign against China on trade, given that Australian exports to China are worth almost 10 times that to

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Fundamental Overview Gold has been under pressure for a few weeks as the market priced out the stagflationary expectations and repriced the rate cut bets. The market is now seeing around 58 bps of easing for the Fed by year-end compared to like 120 bps at the peak of the fears in April. In the

Prior month 1.324M Building permits 1.412M vs 1.450M expected Prior permits 1.467M Yesterday’s NAHB home builder sentiment reading matched the worst since 2022 and this week, US 30-year yields hit 5%. I don’t see how the housing market provides any strength this year to the economy but that sector may be near a bottom. This

Eurostoxx +0.3% Germany DAX +0.5% France CAC 40 +0.3% UK FTSE +0.3% Spain IBEX +0.3% Italy FTSE MIB +0.2% Most indices in Europe will be looking to make it five straight weeks of gains now. The DAX itself is hovering at fresh record highs while the CAC 40 index is looking to top its early

S&P 500 futures are up 0.2% today as today is the monthly equity and single-stock options expiration. Those who bought on April 7 are certainly feeling good about those calls. Yields are coming down and that’s taking away one risk from stock markets in what’s been an incredible run. Trump’s trip to the Middle East

Japan economy minister Akazawa remarks after the poor economic data earlier from Japan: Improvements in job, income conditions likely to underpin moderate economic recovery Must be mindful of downside risks to economy from U.S. trade policy Hit to consumption, household sentiment from sustained price rises also becoming downside risk to Japan’s economy Govt will continue

Prior was -0.1% (revised to -0.4%) Export prices m/m +0.1%% vs -0.5% expected Prior was 0.0% (revised to +0.1%) Import prices y/y +0.1% vs +0.9% prior Export prices y/y +2.0% vs +2.4% prior Higher prices for nonfuel imports more than offset lower prices for fuel imports in April. This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta

A lot of uncertainty around trade measures Even if they are seemingly taking things one step at a time, they are finding it a bit tough to defy market expectations. As things stand, another 25 bps rate cut in June is all but lined up. Traders are pricing in a ~91% probability of that as

Emphasised importance of auto, steel sectors during talks with Greer Has set up formal negotiation framework with the US Next ministerial-level meeting expected to be held in the middle of June Well, keep in mind that the delay here also comes as South Korea is due to have a presidential election on 3 June. So,

Fed: 56 bps (92% probability of no change at the upcoming meeting) ECB: 52 bps (91% probability of rate cut at the upcoming meeting) BoE: 47 bps (89% probability of no change at the upcoming meeting) BoC: 47 bps (64% probability of rate cut at the upcoming meeting) RBA: 77 bps (98% probability of rate

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Reuters poll of analysts re expecations of what’s to come from the RBA: Reserve Bank of Australia to cut cash rate to 3.85% on May 20, say 42 of 43 economists one forecasts 50 bps cut (of the big 4 Australian banks ANZ, CBA and WPAC are tipping a 25bp cut next week, NAB a

The outlet says that: “The window for mutually beneficial cooperation should extend far beyond a mere 90-day period. Hopefully, the US side will build on the outcomes of the recent talks and continue to meet China halfway.” Well, I don’t think anyone is expecting any miracles in the next 90 days. And as mentioned at

In seasonally adjusted terms, the trade balance was €27.9 billion on the month. This comes as exports were seen up 2.9% while imports were up by only 1.0% on the month. This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

Today we get the May’s University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment report. You would expect inflation expectations to ease given the recent positive developments on the trade front right? I think that’s the consensus even though we don’t have consensus numbers for the inflation expectations data. What if they increase further though? That would be a

Prior +1.9% HICP +2.0% vs +2.1% y/y prelim Prior +2.1% Slight delay in the release by the source. A concern here is that core annual inflation is seen accelerating again, up to 2.1% from 1.7% in March. That comes amid a jump in services inflation in particular, up to 3.0% from 2.5% in the month

I’ll be interested in his take on today’s awful GDP number out of Japan: Japan Q1 GDp -0.2% q/q (expected -0.1%) If he addresses it! We might have to wait for any following Q&A. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

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HSBC argue for further yen recovery vs the USD citing heightened U.S. policy uncertainty resumption of pessimism toward the U.S. economy renewed expectations of Fed easing soon HSBC are tracking trade developments, noting market sensitivity “to headlines about U.S.-Japan trade talks, especially regarding FX discussions” HSBC’s modelling indicates 141-149 range for USD/JPY, though analysts do

We are going to be very fair We reached a fantastic deal with the UK, and we reached another with China This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

Ukraine is meanwhile not too happy about said demand, saying that it is a sign that Russia is undermining peace efforts by putting forward demands and conditions. It’s all falling apart before it even begins, which is not surprising after Putin’s no-show. The talks were supposedly to have started at 0900 GMT. This article was

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South Korea’s trade chief Ahn Duk-geun adds that he requested again for a waiver from US tariff measures at the APEC conference. But he’s not offering any word on how Greer took to that. This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

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Reserve Bank of New Zealand more to come This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

There are a couple to take note of on the day, as highlighted in bold. They are all for EUR/USD with a mega one in particular being at the 1.1200 level. That will be of much interest in keeping price action closer to the figure level before rolling off later in the day. The periphery

US policy, overseas economies, FX do affect Japan’s economy and prices So that must be taken into account in monetary policy setting Japan’s economy has recovered moderately but some weakness still seen Economy is facing mounting downward pressure due to US tariffs policy Momentum for wage hikes has accelerated but could weaken depending on US

Reserve Bank of New Zealand This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

In the European session, we don’t have much other than a couple of low tier releases that won’t influence market expectations at all. In the American session, we have the US Building Permits and Housing Starts, the US Import prices and the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment report. Of those three, I would say that

Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney discussed with Mexican President Sheinbaum the imperative to strengthen their respective economies against future shocks according to a prime minister’s office readout. The USMCA free trade agreement was trampled on in the Trump tariff trade war. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

The change in forecast basically just speaks to the change in sentiment. Just last week, it was all still doom and gloom. So, yeah. In any case, Barclays is now forecasting the US economy to grow by 0.5% this year and 1.6% next year. That’s a step up from their previous forecasts of -0.3% and

ICYMI, overnight reports that the State of Wisconsin Investment Board (SWIB) has exited its position in BlackRock’s iShares Bitcoin Trust ETF (IBIT), divesting over six million shares during the first quarter of 2025. According to a recent filing with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission, SWIB no longer holds any spot Bitcoin ETF exposure, marking

The People’s Bank of China (PBOC), China’s central bank, is responsible for setting the daily midpoint of the yuan (also known as renminbi or RMB). The PBOC follows a managed floating exchange rate system that allows the value of the yuan to fluctuate within a certain range, called a “band,” around a central reference rate,

From the previous trade embargo, it’s basically a complete reversal in circumstances now. Customers and businesses are all piling in orders during this 90-day rush period. But what does it all really mean? Well, all you have to do is think back to the second half of 2020 of the Covid pandemic. We went from

German DAX futures +0.1% UK FTSE futures +0.1% This follows from the modest gains yesterday, with US stocks also performing decently outside of tech shares. For today, the mood music is more tentative with US futures also not suggestive of much. S&P 500 futures are flat currently as we look towards European trading. This article

Japanese economic growth data for Q1 2025 (January – March) – recovery in Japan proving tenuous once again -0.2% q/q for real GDP vs. expected -0.1% and prior +0.6% -0.7% annualised q/q, first fall in a year expected -0.2%, prior +2.4% Private Consumption 0.0% q/q expected +0.1%, prior +0.1% Capital Expenditure +1.4% q/q a bright

U.S. Deputy Treasury Secretary Faulkender spoke in an interview with Bloomberg TV: not concerned about persistent increases in prices expects inflation will return to target level US economy building foundation to accelerate in H2 this year confident that August timeline is earliest we have to worry about X date more to come This article was

Equity markets seem to have shaken off the risk, Jamie Dimon with a caution, ICYMI. Dimon says a U.S. recession is still a live risk. The JPMorgan Chase CEO told Bloomberg that surging federal deficits, persistent inflation and the prospect of higher long-term interest rates could yet tip the economy into contraction. “I wouldn’t take

Federal Reserve speakers Friday include Barkin and Daly RBNZ 2 year inflation expectations 2.29% (prior was 2.06%) Banxico Governor Victoria Rodriguez says inflation and economy slowing South Korea’s finance ministry says the economy faces increasing” downward pressure The US says Vietnam’s trade deficit is unsustainable and a major concern amid tariff talks European Central Bank

South Korea’s Ministry of Economy and Finance monthly economic report, the Green Book. economy is facing “increasing” downward pressure due largely to a slowdown in exports amid lingering trade uncertainties and a decline in domestic consumption This is the fifth consecutive month the Ministry has made such an assessment: “The economy is facing growing downward

Lane may give some clues about the next European Central Bank rate move. 1500 GMT/1100 US Eastern time: Participation by ECB board member Philip Lane in Policymaker Panel: “Central Bank Communications and Uncertainty” at 2nd Thomas Laubach Research Conference organised by the Federal Reserve Board in Washington D.C. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan

The focal points on the data agenda are the economic growth data from Japan for the January – March quarter and the Reserve Bank of New Zealand Survey of Expectations for inflation. Japan preliminary Q1 GDP: Most economists expect Japan’s economy shrank in the first quarter, primarily due to soft consumer spending at home and

The Financial Times is gated, but in brief: Trump administration plans to put a number of Chinese chipmaking companies on an export blacklist (the “entity list”) timing of the move has been complicated by the trade deal agreed by China and the US in Geneva at the weekend some Trump administration officials have argued that

People’s Bank of China USD/CNY reference rate is due around 0115 GMT. The People’s Bank of China (PBOC), China’s central bank, is responsible for setting the daily midpoint of the yuan (also known as renminbi or RMB). The PBOC follows a managed floating exchange rate system that allows the value of the yuan to fluctuate

Aims for US businesses to assist in promoting US-China relations Just a casual exchange of pleasantries with both sides still awaiting more serious talks on trade for the time being. This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

JP Morgan analysts expect Bitcoin to outperform gold for the rest of the year. Citing: “debasement trade” where investors buy gold and Bitcoin as a hedge against weakening international currencies has turned into a zero-sum game in 2025 gold was gaining, and Bitcoin was losing … until recently since April’s peak, gold prices have declined

Banxico Governor Victoria Rodriguez speaking in a radio interview the Bank will consider continuing weakness in the economy goods and services CPI is slowing You don’t have to read too far between the lines here to see further rate cuts ahead from Banco de México (abbreviated BdeM or Banxico). I’ll probably get sent to the

Japan finance minister Kato will discuss FX with Bessent in line with points agreed in prior talks FX should be determined by market excessive FX moves damage economy This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

Bank of Mexico lowers benchmark interest rate to 8.50% from 9.00% Board says decision was unanimous Board estimates that looking forward it could continue calibrating the monetary policy stance and consider adjusting it in similar magnitudes Board anticipates that the inflationary environment will allow to continue the rate cutting cycle, albeit maintaining a restrictive stance

Good morning, afternoon and evening all, welcome to Friday! Any charts, technical analysis, trade ideas, thoughts, views, ForexLive traders would like to share and discuss with fellow ForexLive traders, please do so: This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

South Korea April data, comes via the Bank of Korea: Export prices in won terms +0.7% y/y vs revised +6.4% in March, export prices slowest rise y/y since December 2023 Import prices in won terms -2.3% y/y vs revised +3.4% in March, import prices fastest drop y/y since October 2024 – Also, South Korea says

Japan, US to resume tariff talks after G7 summit as Akazawa plans Washington visit Japan and the United States are preparing for a third round of negotiations over trade tariffs, aiming to resume talks later this month. The discussions are part of ongoing efforts to ease tensions following recent U.S. tariff hikes under the Trump

The GBPUSD remains confined to a 68-pip trading range today, narrower than the 22-day average range of 102 pips (about a month of trading). Price action has been choppy, but the 100-hour moving average (currently at 1.32614) has consistently provided support during intraday dips. This level also aligns with recent swing lows (see red numbered

BNZ – BusinessNZ Performance of Manufacturing Index (PMI). April comes in at 53.9 up from 53.2 in March fourth month in a row showing expansion above the average of 52.5 BusinessNZ’s Director, Advocacy Catherine Beard: “All of the sub-index values were in expansion during April.” BNZ’s Senior Economist Doug Steel: “activity is not surging, but

US April retail sales +0.1% vs 0.0% expected US April PPI +2.4% vs +2.5% expected US initial jobless claims 229K versus 229K estimate Philadelphia Fed Business index for May -4.0 vs -11.0 expected US May NAHB housing market index 34 vs 40 expected US April industrial production 0.0% vs +0.2% expected Empire manufacturing index for

The WSJ reported that Meta has delayed the release of its flagship large language model, Llama 4 “Behemoth,” citing internal concerns about its performance and whether it offers meaningful improvements over previous versions. That news sent shares of Meta lower with the price closing at $643.88, down $-15.48 for -2.35%. At session highs, the stock

The price of crude oil move down $1.53 or 2.42% settling at $61.62. Contributing to the downward bias includes: Potential U.S.–Iran nuclear deal: May lead to lifting of sanctions on Iranian oil exports, increasing global supply. OPEC+ production increases: Scheduled to add 411,000 bpd as part of the continued rollback of earlier cuts. IEA demand

Prior was +2.7% PPI -0.5% m/m vs +0.2% expected Ex food and energy +3.1% y/y vs +3.1% expected Ex food and energy -0.4% m/m vs +0.3% expected Ex food, energy and trade +2.9% vs +3.4% prior Ex food, energy and trade -0.1% vs +0.1% prior Before today’s data slate, the market was pricing in 74

Gold is up $40 today to $3219 in an impressive $110 intraday turnaround after falling as low as $3120 in Asia-Pacific trade. There is a growing conversation about US fiscal sustainability and its erratic trade war. Trade tensions have fallen and gold has fallen at the same time but we’re still not clear on where

Trade shock could be particularly hard on small businesses and trigger price increases if supply chains are affected or firms fail There isn’t much of a nod here but after today’s PPI data, the market is back to fully pricing in 25 bps in September. This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

The US government bond market is in the midst of a sell off 10-year yield rises to its highest in a month at 4.55% Other tenors are being hit too. US equity markets have, so far, shrugged off the steady rise in yields. This pic is intended to reference equity markets, but it’ll do for

The meeting on the sidelines here is said to involve US trade representative, Jamieson Greer, and China’s trade envoy, Li Chenggang. This as both parties were in attendance of the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) conference. No further details are given on the engagement. But considering that it is just a pull aside conversation, there shouldn’t

The Q2 estimate for GDP from the Atlanta Fed is up to 2.5% from 2.3% on May 8. In their own words: The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the second quarter of 2025 is 2.5 percent on May 15, up from 2.3 percent on May 8. After recent

Canada’s S&P TSX stuck in the city is stretching to a new all-time high. The high price today reach two 589.46. The current prices at 25882.41 of 190 points or 0.74% on the day. The new high extended above the prior hi going back to June January 30 at 25875.61. The high price for the

Bitcoin has been on a great ride since Trump’s tariff pause announcement back on April 9. We’ve seen the same with the US stock market given that the main macro drivers for both are growth expectations and liquidity. Now, growth expectations continue to improve but a new risk is emerging: repricing in interest rates expectations.

Prior +0.1% The beat comes amid a stronger March monthly report here, hinting at a more solid showing by the UK economy in Q1. The jump in the first quarter is largely led by the services sector, which also expanded by 0.7% on the quarter in terms of output. This article was written by Justin

2025 global supply growth forecast seen at 1.6 mil bpd (up by 380k bpd) 2025 global demand growth forecast seen at 650k bpd for remainder of 2025 (down from 990k bpd in Q1) 2025 average oil demand growth forecast seen at 740k bpd (up by 20k bpd) 2026 average oil demand growth forecast seen at

Today’s US retail sales report was mostly positive news. The control group was the lone exception but that was on softer grocery store spending while economically-sensitive spots showed some real strength, like food services and drinking places up 0.8%. The CFO of the world’s biggest retailer had this to say on the call today: February

Prior month was -26.4 Details: New Orders 7.5 vs -34.2 last month Shipments -13.0 versus -9.1 last month Unfilled orders 4.9 versus -1.1 last month Delivery time -9.2 versus -2.6 last month Inventories 9.7 versus -0.9 last month Prices paid 59.8 versus 51.0 last month Prices received 43.6 versus 30.7 last month Number of employees

George Saravelos is Global Head of FX Research at Deutsche Bank is out with a striking note today, highlighting the problems with the US dollar, deficits and government policy. The note certainly resonates with US 30-year yields touching off 5% today. He highlights the emerging consensus around the fiscal budget bill that’s working its way

The Qatar wealth fund plans to invest $500B in US over the next 10 years. This is according to Bloomberg. Earlier in the week, during talks in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia pledged a historic $600 billion in future investments across U.S. energy, technology, defense, and infrastructure sectors, a commitment announced jointly by the White House and Saudi

NBC citing an unnamed official: Iran ready to eliminate its uranium reserves Ready to sign an agreement for relief from sanctions, with conditions pledge no nuclear weapons Would forego highly enriched uranium in nuclear deal with Trump This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

Prior was 40 Details: Single family 37 vs 45 prior Prospective buyers 23 vs 25 prior Sales expectations 42 vs 43 prior This matches the lowest since 2022 and — outside of the pandemic period — is the worst since 2012. The west region is particularly soft. I can’t imagine that today’s touch of 5%

UBS sees further upside for technology stocks following their recent rebound, even as uncertainty over U.S. trade policy persists. “With global tech’s valuation still reasonable, we think the risk-reward remains attractive” Analysts at the firm advise investors to “continue to position for an ongoing recovery in quality AI names globally.” However, they have flagged several

The AUDUSD continues to face strong resistance at the 200-day moving average, which capped rallies both on Monday and again today at the session high of 0.6457. Sellers leaned into that level, keeping upside momentum in check and maintaining the bearish pressure. On the downside, a cluster of moving averages, all broken on the move

Sector Overview The stock market heatmap today reveals a dynamic landscape of performance across various sectors. While the technology sector struggled to find footing, the financials surged ahead, providing a significant anchor for the market. 📉 Technology Sector: Notable tech giants like Apple (AAPL) and Oracle (ORCL) faced challenges, slipping by 0.93% and 1.37% respectively.

This is not directly about financial markets, but it might be of interest. Much of the current discourse on Taiwan centres around one scenario: war. The prevailing imagery involves amphibious landings, missile strikes, and an Indo-Pacific showdown with global ramifications. Yet the most plausible outcome may be the one least discussed: China could secure Taiwan

The major European indices are closing the session with gains. The German DAX is closing at a new record high level of 23680.03. Spain’s Ibex April 2008. Italy’s FTSE MIB closed at its highest level going back to 2007 A snapshot of the closing levels shows: German DAX (Germany): +0.65% UK’s FTSE 100 (UK): +0.57%

Today, financial markets no longer dance solely to the rhythm of macroeconomic data releases. Instead, they often lurch or rally in response to an offhand remark from a political leader or an abrupt policy tweet. Nowhere is this more evident than in recent weeks, where headlines—not spreadsheets—have dominated market momentum. Traditional indicators like inflation figures

WSJ’s Nick Timiraos shared on X the current forecasts for the US PCE price index due in a couple of weeks. The PCE price index is the Fed’s preferred inflation measure. These forecasts can change a little after the US PPI today and the US Import prices tomorrow. It’s certainly moving in the right direction,

Freddie Mac 30 year mortgage rate for the current week rises to 6.81% from 6.76% U.S. housing data continue to paint a mixed picture. New‑home sales rose solidly in March, climbing to a seasonally‑adjusted annual rate (SAAR) of 724 000 units, a 7.4 % jump from February and 6 % above year‑earlier levels. Builders are attracting buyers with incentives:

No preparations for a Putin visit in the coming days Nothing has been agreed We do not know yet how negotiations will go (when asked if Putin will go if Trump does) Too early to talk about what will happen We do not even know if Ukraine will show up or how talks will pan

The report notes that although the US is considering to revise the agreement, the Japanese camp is not anticipating such a change. As such, there is a possibility that negotiations will meet a deadlock. The revision to the agreement seems to be centered around the possibility of the US requesting further concessions on agriculture and

59 of 62 economists (95%) see no change to interest rates in June meeting 39 of 58 economists (67%) see interest rates staying unchanged in Q3 (previously 36%) 30 of 58 economists (52%) see at least one more rate hike by year-end The median prediction for end-September rate is now 0.50% (previously 0.75%) The median

Good morning, afternoon and evening all. Any charts, technical analysis, trade ideas, thoughts, views, ForexLive traders would like to share and discuss with fellow ForexLive traders, please do so: This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

CIBC is out with a note on today’s US retail sales report and they’re not impressed. They note the soft ‘control group’ reading and possible pull-forward spending as a mirage. Later in the year, slower population growth could lead to weakness. “The road ahead for the consumer is going to be rough,” CIBC writes. They

Why Markets Move: Stop Obsessing Over “Why” and Start Mastering the “How” I think I’ve been getting this question about once a week for over 10 years. “Why is the stock going down?”, “Why is the stock going up?” and just less than an hour ago on one of our channels: “What reasons pushing gold

We are going into a series of negotiations with China to prevent escalation again. We now have a mechanism with China counterparts. There’s nothing new here. This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at www.forexlive.com.

The EURUSD remains under pressure after yesterday’s rally was capped by the 200-hour moving average and a swing area that extended up to 1.1275. That area remains a key upside hurdle for buyers looking to regain control, although the MA has drifted lower and currently sits near 1.1243. Today’s price action has been contained, with

We expect that the negotiations will lead to a good result But would like to make it clear that we are prepared to act if talks do not succeed So far, it’s been very slow-going in terms of any progress between the EU and US. Well, to be fair the only countries that are making

Prior was +1.5% Details: Ex-autos +0.1% vs +0.3% expected Prior ex autos +0.6% Ex autos and gas +0.2% vs +0.9% prior Control group -0.2% vs +0.3% expected Prior control +0.4% (revised to +0.5%) Retail sales y/y vs +4.91% prior The control group is the key metric in this report and it was a disappointment. I

Hedge fund manager David Einhorn is on CNBC: There’s not even the beginning of a plan to do anything about the deficit until it’s a crisis DOGE talked about $2 trillion in savings, it maybe found $150 billion Tariffs might raise $100 billion I don’t understand why the trade deficit is a problem I’ll be

The USDCAD moved back above the 200-bar moving average on the 4-hour chart (currently at 1.3957) yeasteray, and found support against it during today’s pullback. That level now serves as immediate support, and holding above it keeps the near-term bullish bias intact. On the topside, the 200-day moving average at 1.40126 remains a key upside

Fundamental Overview The USD got a boost across the board on Monday as the US-China tariff relief was a much better than expected news. The market started to look at the more hawkish scenario where we get an average 10% global tariff rate and economic activity picks up on an easing in growth fears and

Oil prices sank today after a report said Iran is ready to sign a nuclear deal if all economic sanctions are lifted. Trump added to that by saying Iran had agreed to terms and that “we’re getting close to doing a deal with Iran.” This pushes back on that a bit but there is some

We have a very busy day ahead on the data front. In the European session, there won’t be that much as we just get the Eurozone Q1 GDP (2nd estimate) and the Eurozone Employment Change data. Both of them are old news and rarely market moving releases. In the American session, we have lots of

With his visit to the Middle East, Trump is turning his attention to other geopolitical matters this week. For markets in general, all of this at least buys further reprieve on the trade front after the US and China settled on a 90-day de-escalation since the weekend. As for the topic itself, Iran continues to

The major US stock indices are recovering from Lowe’s. The S&P index is now down around -5 points or -0.08% at 5888. The low price reached 5865.16 down -27.42 point at session lows. The NASDAQ index is still down -92 points are -0.49% at 19053. But reached a low of 18967.78 down -179 point at

Headlines: US Bessent: We are going into a series of negotiations with China EU trade commissioner Šefčovič says will meet with Lutnick at OECD meeting EU must respond to US tariffs with unity and determination, says German finance minister Trump: India offered the US a deal, one with zero tariffs Trump: We’re getting close to

The NZDUSD continues to trade within a broad sideways range, with buyers and sellers battling around key technical levels. Earlier this week, buyers made an attempt to push the pair above the 100-bar MA on the 4-hour chart, but the move stalled and ultimately failed. That MA, currently near 0.5939, now serves as a topside

Prior was -0.3% This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

Recent months have been rather eventful on global financial markets The most immediate concern is that ongoing trade tensions could escalate into a trade war That has potentially significant negative consequences for global growth, inflation and asset prices But the elevated level of uncertainty has not been limited to trade We also continue to see

April PCE will likely come in around 2.2% y/y Officials agree that strategic language around both short falls of employment and average inflation need to be reconsidered Framework needs to be robust Revisions to Fed communication are also being considered There’s nothing to take away here for markets, at least in the short term. This

The USDCHF continues to find sellers near familiar technical levels, with the 38.2% retracement of the March–April decline at 0.8482 acting as firm resistance earlier this week. The inability to push above that level has resulted in a retracement lower as sellers remain in control. The swing area halted yesterday’s fall between 0.8318 and 0.8333

The USD got a boost across the board on Monday as the US-China tariff relief was a much better than expected news. The market started to look at the more hawkish scenario where we get an average 10% global tariff rate and economic activity picks up on an easing in growth fears and general uncertainty.

Highlights: Manufacturing activity fell for a third consecutive month in New York State. The prices paid index climbed for a fifth consecutive month. Employment was negative and lower. New orders and shipments rose after declining previously.. For the FULL REPORT CLICK HERE Looking at the details: Prior month -8.10 For the full report CLICK HERE

While the Trump tariff war has entered a tentative ceasefire, China is not stepping back. China has announced a sweeping effort to enforce tighter export controls on strategic minerals, reinforcing national security through what officials describe as “full-chain management.” The Ministry of Commerce confirmed that the crackdown will span every stage of the supply chain—from

Prior month business inventories 0.2% Business inventories for March 0.1% vs 0.2% estimate Retail inventories ex-Autos 0.4% vs 0.1% last month Details from the Census Bureau: Total sales (March): $1,919.9B, up 0.7% from February 2025 and up 4.5% from March 2024 Total inventories (March): $2,578.1B, up 0.1% from February 2025 and up 2.5% from March

There are so many conflicting signals on this war at the moment. It’s impossible to make sense of where it really stands. This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

The takeaway from the earnings call today comes from these remarks by Doug McMillon. He warned that Walmart is planning to raise prices on some items as Trump’s tariffs are weighing on the firm’s costing. And that these price hikes will begin later this month, despite the recent temporary reprieve between the US and China.

Gold Futures Analysis Today: Key Events, Market Sentiment, and OrderFlow Intel Insights 🚩 TRADER-UPDATE: Gold futures (GC) strongly confirmed the bullish double-bottom scenario at 10:40, reversing the temporary bearish concern seen at 10:22. Robust Delta SL, Delta Change, and improved cumulative delta at the recent bar clearly demonstrate renewed bullish dominance. Traders holding bullish positions

Melbourne Institute Survey of Consumer Inflation Expectations in Australia, May 2025: 4.1% prior 4.2% Not a market mover. Still to come from Australia is jobs market data for April: Economic calendar in Asia Thursday, May 15, 2025 – Fed speaker, Australia jobs report And next week the Reserve Bank of Australia is expected to cut

The toughest negotiation of all for the US administration is with the EU. I just don’t see any world where the EU can accept a 10% floor on tariffs. But there is also a significant trade surplus with the US so I don’t see how Trump’s team can back down. But if the EU gets

There are a couple to take note of on the day, as highlighted in bold. The first one is for EUR/USD at the 1.1200 level. That might act as a bit of a magnet in trapping price action in between its key hourly moving averages in the session ahead at least. That especially after the

That’s a much stronger promise than what was initially reported here. It will be interesting to see what Trump is offering back in return though. Will India be able to buy an exemption? Or is there still going to be the 10% baseline? This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

Federal Reserve Chair Powell is speaking on Thursday How China will take over Taiwan. Without firing a shot. APEC sees trade policy volatility in April 9 times greater than average of 2015–2024 AUD/USD popped higher on the huge beat in the April jobs report Australia April 2025 unemployment rate 4.1% (vs. 4.1% expected) & Employment

Trade representatives of APEC member economies are meeting today and tomorrow. To discuss multilateral trade and other cooperation agendas, including reforms of the World Trade Organization. Headlines via Reuters: APEC sees regional GDP growth for 2025 at 2.6% down from 3.3% earlier Sees export growth for 2025 at 0.4% versus 5.7% in 2024 Sees unprecedented

Prior was +0.3% Manufacturing sales M/M -1.4% vs -1.9% expected Prior was +0.2% Sales increased in three of the seven subsectors. The largest increase came from the motor vehicle and motor vehicle parts and accessories subsector (+4.5% to $15.1 billion), followed by the miscellaneous subsector (+4.1% to $11.0 billion). Wholesale sales were 5.7% higher in

Prior +1.1% That’s an unexpected surge in euro area industrial output. The breakdown shows it comes amid a jump in capital goods in particular. The rise there (+3.2%) was accompanied by increases in output for durable consumer goods (+3.1%) and also intermediate goods (+0.6%). That was slightly offset by a fall in energy output (-0.5%)

Prior week 228K revised 229K Initial jobless claims 229M vs 229K estimate 4-week moving average initial jobless claims 230.5 vs 227.25K last week Continuing claims 1.881M vs 1.890M estimate Prior week continuing claims 1.879M revised to 1.872M 4-week MA continuing claims 1.874M vs 1.873M last week Full report CLICK HERE The initial jobless claims continue

The EURUSD and the GBPUSD have traded up and back down in trading today. The pairs are trading between the 100/200 hour MAs to start the day. The USDJPY is lower in trading today but did find support buyers near the lower 200 hour MA. In the video below, I go through the technical levels

Week 10 of EBC’s Million Dollar Trading Challenge II was anything but ordinary. With wild market swings, leaderboard shake-ups, and a community of traders keeping each other on their toes, this week had it all. If you missed the action or just want the highlights, we’ve got you covered with answers to the week’s most

China always open to resolving economic, trade relations offline. Will release more information in due course. It starts looking more and more like Trump wasn’t lying about US and China having private conversations about trade, and the Chinese were just denying that because they want to keep things private. This article was written by Giuseppe

The People’s Bank of China (PBOC), China’s central bank, is responsible for setting the daily midpoint of the yuan (also known as renminbi or RMB). The PBOC follows a managed floating exchange rate system that allows the value of the yuan to fluctuate within a certain range, called a “band,” around a central reference rate,

We’re getting close to doing a deal with Iran. Iran has agreed to terms; we want them to succeed. We were losing Middle East due to past administration. We had reports overnight suggesting that a deal was coming, so this is not something fresh. This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at www.forexlive.com.

Point72’s Steve Cohen: We’re not in a recession yet I think we’re going to have significant slowing growth We think it’ll probably be a 45% chance of recession Will be slowdown, Fed will be slow to respond Stocks could retest their April lows Cohen emphasized the volatility of the economic environment, saying his answers might

U.S. equities are likely to extend their recent outperformance in the near term, buoyed by easing trade tensions between Washington and Beijing, according to Deutsche Bank. From a note on Wednesday: “Looking forward, short-term, we expect the S&P 500’s recent outperformance to persist as US companies are the bigger beneficiary of the tariff cuts” However,

German DAX futures -0.4% UK FTSE futures -0.1% European indices closed lower yesterday and look to follow up on that with another sluggish showing today. This comes as US futures are also running into some exhaustion after the strong surge earlier in the week. S&P 500 futures are marked down by 0.3% on the day.

The Moscow Times reports that Putin has no intention of meeting directly with Zelensky in Istanbul. This war has gone on for far too long but it’s hard to say if we’re really in the endgame. This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

Prior +0.1% That’s a marginal revision lower to the initial estimate but still reaffirms decent growth in the euro area economy in Q1. All of this of course is before we see any impact from tariffs. So, it’s pretty much outdated data. This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

For at least the past 25 years, human traders have been anxious about being replaced by machines and yet — today — there are more people trading than ever. I’d argue that many of them shouldn’t be trading and note that many of the human tasks in markets have been replaced but the future is

The price of crude oil futures are settling at $63.15. That is up $0.52 or 0.82%. The high-priced today rates $63.64. The low price was at $62.78. The price has generally remained below the 50% retracement level of the trading range from the 2020 low, which stands at $64.71. For the bullish bias to gain

EU, US have agreed to intensify contact on trade talks Well, time’s a wasting. The meeting will only come around in the next three weeks and by then, there will only be five more weeks before the reciprocal tariffs pause times out. This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

Discover the answer to the dilemma between trading the range vs trending market to profit from bull and bear markets The post Range vs Trending Market appeared first on TradingwithRayner.

Prior +0.8% HICP +0.9% vs +0.8% y/y prelim Prior +0.9% Core annual inflation continues to hold steady at 1.3%, the same as in March and February. This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

Prior +0.5% Services +0.4% vs +0.1% m/m expected Prior +0.3% Industrial output -0.7% vs -0.5% m/m expected Prior +1.5%; revised to +1.7% Manufacturing output -0.8% vs -0.5% m/m expected Prior +2.2%; revised to +2.4% Construction output +0.5% vs +0.1% m/m expected Prior +0.4%; revised to +0.2% The focus today is on the quarterly report but

The breakdown shows producer prices rising by 0.2% on the month while import prices were flat in April. Compared to the same month a year ago, the overall index is down 0.5% with the chunk of that owing to a decline in import prices (-1.8%). This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

People’s Bank of China USD/CNY reference rate is due around 0115 GMT. The People’s Bank of China (PBOC), China’s central bank, is responsible for setting the daily midpoint of the yuan (also known as renminbi or RMB). The PBOC follows a managed floating exchange rate system that allows the value of the yuan to fluctuate

Eurostoxx -0.6% Germany DAX -0.6% France CAC 40 -0.4% UK FTSE -0.5% Spain IBEX -0.2% Italy FTSE MIB -0.6% This comes as US futures are also holding lower so far on the day. S&P 500 futures are down 0.5%, with Nasdaq futures down 0.5% and Dow futures down 0.6% currently. It’s a bit of a

Wow! Big jobs added number, >4* expected! The bulk of that full-time. This is going to fuel speculation of no Reserve Bank of Australia rate cut next week. Expectations were widely held of a 25bp cut on May 20. Mix in a calming of Trump’s trade wars and its not too much of a stretch

The Australian April 2025 jobs data is here: Australia April 2025 unemployment rate 4.1% (vs. 4.1% expected) & Employment Change +89.0K 89,000 jobs were added, 59,500 of those full-time. That’s a strong, strong result. The consensus analyst expectation was for 20,000 jobs to be added, so the result was more than 4 times that. Taking

Prior -0.2% It’s a marginal decline in wholesale prices on the month but the overall reading remains elevated. Compared to the same month last year, German wholesale prices are seen up 0.8% still. This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

At 0840 US Eastern time (1240 GMT) Powell speaks on the Bank’s “Framework Review” (the Fed does this review every 5 years): it analyses the Bank’s approach to monetary policy “We are open to new ideas and critical feedback and will take onboard lessons from the last five years and adapt our approach where appropriate

Dick’s Sporting Goods is close to acquiring Foot Locker The Wall Street Journal has the info: deal valued at approximately US$2.3 billion two sides are in discussion over a cash offer of $24 per share for Foot Locker way above the most recent closing price of $12.87 Since the announcement, Dick’s stock has fallen 7%

Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco President Mary Daly Any guidance on policy would be speculative and wrong, given uncertainty Earlier: Fed’s Daly: Business is cautious amidst the economic uncertainty, but not “stalling out” — I don’t even know where to start with that comment. OK … here goes. I am not expressing an opinion

At the close: Tech leads as US stocks climb again David Einhorn: There is no effort to reduce the deficit, buy gold Crude oil futures settle at $63.15 Goldman Sachs: April US retail sales likely to show frontloading boost Putin not interested in one-on-one meeting with Zelensky in Istanbul – report The market has removed

New Zealand Food Price Index for April 2025 +0.8% m/m prior +0.5% +3.7% y/y prior +3.5% This data was out earlier. I didn’t post it due to the oil news: Media reports that Iran is ready to sign an agreement for relief from sanctions More on “Iran is ready to sign a nuclear deal” if

It was more of a battle today but the bulls came out ahead. Newsflow was quiet today — one of the quietest days of the year — and that allowed the momentum trade to continue to tick higher. Big winners were in megacap tech and the usual retail-driven tech stocks while some biotech stocks were

The headline to this is here: Media reports that Iran is ready to sign an agreement for relief from sanctions More now, NBC report: Ali Shamkhani, a top political, military and nuclear advisor to Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, is one of the most senior Iranian officials to speak publicly about the ongoing discussions.

Federal Reserve’s Daly: Monetary policy well-positioned, moderately restrictive Businesses are cautious amid uncertainty, but not stalling out Solid growth, solid labor market, declining inflation, that’s where we want to be Fed policy can respond to whatever comes in the economy Patience is the word of the day Loan demand solid, credits are good Federal Reserve

In a China Securities Journal article analysts say they see space for further cuts to China’s Reserve Requirement Ratio (RRR) this year. By 100 to 200 bp. The People’s Bank of China last cut the RRR on May 7. A 50bp cut. I’d suggest it’ll be many months before we see another cut. — —

Citi have bumped up their 0-3 month price view to USD 60/bbl for Brent keeps Q2 and Q3 Brent averages at USD 62/bbl and USD 63/bbl respectively Info via Reuters headline. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco President Mary Daly is speaking soon, at 2140 GMT / 1740 US Eastern time: participates in a fireside chat before the California Bankers Association 25th Annual Conference and Directors Forum Later we’ll get the Australian employment report for April. It feels early in the month for this, but the

The USDCAD moved lower in early trading today but found support near a familiar swing area between 1.38917 and 1.3904. Buyers leaned against that zone, which has acted as a floor in recent sessions, and the price responded with a bounce higher. The recovery has taken the pair back above the 100-bar moving average on

Goldman Sachs expects core retail sales to rise in April as consumers frontloaded purchases ahead of impending tariffs, while headline retail sales are likely to remain flat due to weak auto sales and falling gas prices. Key Points: Core retail sales forecast: +0.4% m/m, driven by precautionary spending ahead of expected tariff-related price increases. Headline

Fundamental Overview Gold continues to pull back amid the positive global growth expectations following the much better than expected US-China news on Monday. These expectations are also leading to a more hawkish repricing in interest rates and the pricing out of stagflationary risk. In the bigger picture, gold remains in an uptrend as real yields

Goldman Sachs targets for the benchmark US S&P 500, ICYMI: Three-month target 5,900, GS see the current advance stalling in the short term “Already-optimistic market pricing of the economic growth outlook as well as uncertainty surrounding the magnitude of impending slowdown in economic and earnings growth will likely keep a ceiling on equity multiples during

Société Générale refrains from recommending explicit short USD positions for now, citing policy-driven disruption in FX markets. Instead, they favor tactical long AUD and short CHF exposure, anticipating benefits from trade thaw and reduced geopolitical tension. Key Points: USD view neutral for now: Despite President Trump’s desire for a weaker dollar and rising US yields,

Gold has broken below the 200-bar moving average on the 4-hour chart, signaling a potential shift in momentum following its recent highs.The last few attempts of that rising MA (see green line on the chart above) found sellers A close – and staying below this key trend-defining level – would confirm weakening bullish control and

Fed pricing has substantially shifted since the peak of angst about growth, tariffs and inflation two weeks ago. At the time, the market was pricing in 131 bps in easing through the April 29, 2026 scheduled FOMC meeting. Today, that has dropped to 71 bps as the market cheers the sharp drop in US-China tariffs.

GBPUSD’s earlier rally stalled at the familiar resistance zone between 1.33619 and 1.33784, where sellers leaned in and capped upside momentum. The pullback found support earlier today at the 200-bar moving average on the 4-hour chart, and the pair is now retracing lower toward that level again, presenting a potential dip-buying opportunity. For buyers, holding

Super Micro Computer (SMCI) shares are currently up around 17.14% at $45.57 , extending yesterday’s 16% rally. The sharp move comes on the heels of a major catalyst: a multi-year, $20 billion partnership with Saudi data-center developer DataVolt. As part of the deal, Super Micro will accelerate delivery of ultra-dense GPU platforms and rack systems

The major US indices closed higher once again with the NASDAQ index leading the way with a gain of 1.61%. Today’s move was fueled by the expected CPI data (0.2% for the headline and core measure versus 0.3% expected). The S&P index is now positive on the year by 0.08%. The NASDAQ index is within

Gold is running stops after breaking the May 1 low. It’s now down $60 to $3187 after the May bottom of $3202 was breached. Gold had tried to form a double bottom at $3200 but that effort has failed now in light of the climb-down in the trade war and ceasefire in India/Pakistan. The early-April

Current moderately restrictive policy rate in a good place to respond to economic developments Watching closely for signs in hard data of weaker activity Recent inflation data consistent with further progress toward 2% goal, but future path uncertainty due to tariffs Tariffs could lead to higher inflation Labor market still solid Q1 GDP data overstated

A day of lower-tier data head, nothing here to move major FX too much upon release. Wage growth data from Australia may attract some attention. Strong wage growth can help fuel inflation, and the Reserve Bank of Australia is still not comfortable declaring a win over inflation pressure. The Bank has begun to cut its

Says 90 day US-China trade deal suggests potential for more lasting agreements, likely supporting normalisation of trade flows. Sees oil supply outside OPEC+ rising by 800K BPD this year (previously 900K). Sees 5% cut un E&P investment in non-OPEC+ producers in 2025. Trims forecast for total US oil supply growth in 2025 to 300K BPD

Estimates put the plane’s value around USD400mn I think? There will have to be money spent on it to secure it as AF1. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

Coin Desk with the info: Tether added another 4,812 Bitcoin to Twenty One Capital’s Bitcoin holdings bought $458 mn of Bitcoin for Twenty One Capital transferred it to an escrow wallet on May 9 disclosed in a May 13 filing with the US Securities and Exchange Commission More at the link BTC update: — Stablecoin

After initially breaking above the 100-bar MA on the 4-hour chart at 0.5946, NZDUSD gained upside traction, pushing to a high of 0.5968. However, the bullish momentum quickly faded, and the pair has since slipped back below both the 100-bar MA on the 4-hour chart at 0.59464, and, more recently, the 200-hour MA at 0.59378.

Here is the scoop from Charlie Gasparino, though these deals have been rumored for a couple weeks: Trade-tariff deals with Japan and South Korea said to be “close,” according to me Wall Street sources close to the White House. Timing unclear. India deal as well though it has been throttled by the tensions with Pakistan.

Worried that household inflation expectations have increased Need to see loss of pricing power by firms But goods price inflation is going up She’s turned back to the hawkish side, having voted to keep the bank rate unchanged last week. Yesterday, she defended her position in saying that they will stop using restrictive language “when

EURUSD failed to sustain earlier gains as price action today stalled just ahead of the 200-hour moving average (green line on the chart above) and the lower boundary of a key swing zone between 1.12657 and 1.1275. Sellers leaned into the level and have since pushed the pair back toward the 100-hour moving averages The

The S&P 500 is up 0.3% in the early going while the Nasdaq is up 0.6%. There isn’t much (anything?) on the calendar to derail things today so we’ll wait for the usual Trump tweets and other news out of the White House. That said, what could really change things? Tariff policy is paused on

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The dollar was the laggard in trading yesterday as it surrendered a large chunk of the gains from Monday. And that comes despite a continued bid in equities and with Treasury yields pushing higher as well. The latter is going to be a key focus as long-end yields are starting to near the April highs

Closing changes on the day: Stoxx 600 -0.4% German DAX -0.6% France CAC -0.6% UK FTSE 100 -0.3% Spain IBEX +0.3% — highest close since 2008 Italy’s FTSE MIB +0.5% Spanish stocks have been in an impressive bull market and are making new highs after the tariff rout. This article was written by Adam Button

The crude oil market has been battered by negative news on both the demand and supply side in April and that weighed a lot on prices. More recently, the demand side of the equation started to improve as positive developments on the trade front made the market to expect better global growth ahead. Technically, we