It was a four-day week in the US stock market but the momentum from last week’s huge rebound didn’t last. The peak of the week came on Monday after some electronics tariffs were removed but it didn’t take the sellers long to step in. On the week: S&P 500 -1.6% Nasdaq -2.6% DJIA -2.7% Russell […]

The IDC is just out with some smartphone stats: China smartphone shipments up 3.3% in Q1 (solid sign of growth) Huawei China sales +10% Apple China sales -9% Xiaomi was the top vendor with 18.6% share, followed by Huawei and Oppo with 18% and 15.7%, respectively An iPhone was a status symbol for years in

Generally in a bear market you see selling into a long weekend on heightened risks for bad news. A good example was during the 2023 banking crisis when risk assets were sold on Fridays because of fears of a bank failure. Now, we’re seeing that reverse. Why? Last weekend offers a powerful example. Late on

The worst-case scenario for the US economy at the moment — and this is something Powell hinted at yesterday — is a covid-style halt in trade. We don’t have to look back to far to see how that might play out as it led to shortages and inflation. It also might have led to widespread

Q1 revenue $10.54B vs $10.51B expected Q1 EPS $6.61 vs $5.71 exp Reiterates revenue forecast of $43.5-$44.5B Sees Q2 EPS $7.03 Shares are trading at $981 compared to $975 at the close but it’s been choppy. The call is at 4:45 pm ET. Update: Shares now up 5%. This article was written by Adam Button

From the USTR release: Actions designed to restore US shipbuilding while mitigating disruptions Vessel ownders and operators of China would be assessed port fees starting at $50 per net ton in 180 days Fees will increase by $30 per ton per year for three years Foreign-built car carriers would start at $150 per vehicle in

If you missed it, about two hours ago, Fox Business’ Charlie Gasparino was out with this report: If the current trajectory of the negotiations remain, White House officials expect to soon announce a trade deal w Japan, I am told by people w direct knowledge of the matter. No details on exact timing and this

This could be heading down a dark path. If Trump turfs the Fed Chairman and/or enough Governors to make a difference, then selling the dollar and buying gold is one of the most-straightforward trades you will ever find. “If I want him out, he’ll be out of there real fast, believe me,” Trump said. “He’ll

Learn Advanced Option Spreads: Iron Condors, Butterflies & Multi-Leg Mastery As your stock options education progresses, it’s time to explore advanced spread strategies—tools that allow you to express market-neutral or range-bound views with defined risk and enhanced premium collection. This guide focuses on iron condors and butterfly spreads, powerful setups for traders who have a

The Atlanta Fed GDPNow growth estimate for Q2 remain unchanged at -2.2%. The gold import and export adjusted GDP also remains unchanged at -0.1%. In their own words: The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the first quarter of 2025 is -2.2 percent on April 17, unchanged from April

Speaking at the Economic Club of Chicago, US Federal Reserve (Fed) Chairman Jerome Powell was in the spotlight yesterday and highlighted the potential economic consequences of President Donald Trump’s tariffs on the US economy. ‘Tariffs are highly likely to generate at least a temporary rise in inflation’ Powell underlined that Trump’s policy changes are ‘unlike

Freddie Mac is reporting that the US 30 year fixed-rate mortgage came in at 6.83% for the April 17 week. That is up from versus 6.62% in the prior week. The high mortgage rate for the year is around 7.04%. Below is around 6.6%. The current rate is new the middle of that range at

The major US stock indices remain mixed. The Dow industrial average is largely impacted by United health which is down $122 or -21% at $462. That has the Dow industrial average down 577 points or -1.46%. Meanwhile the broader indices are giving up their early gains. NASDAQ index is now down -37 points or -0.24%.

The highlight in the European session will be the ECB rate decision, although it’s unlikely that the central bank will surprise the markets in any way. In the American session, we have the US Jobless Claims which are now even more important given that they could give an earlier signal of deterioration in the labour

Trump will meet with Meloni (all times US Eastern time): greets her at midday with lunch to follow straight after meeting from 1.05 pm Be ready for a neww conference and some headlines. At 4 pm Trump will be signing Exec orders. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

Learn Calendar and Diagonal Spreads: Mastering Time-Based Options Strategies Welcome to Article 6 of the Learn Options Series, where we introduce time-based strategies that add another layer of control and opportunity to your stock options education. These setups go beyond simple directional trades by incorporating the powerful element of time decay to your advantage. If

The USDCAD has rebounded after finding firm support in the 1.3827–1.39499 zone, where multiple recent lows have formed a solid base. The pair has pushed back above the 100-hour moving average, currently near 1.3880, but bullish momentum has stalled, suggesting hesitation from buyers. To build on this recovery, the pair needs to hold above the

China will announce an expansion plan for its service sector on Monday. It’ll be at a press conference attended by officals from the Ministry of Commerce, Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, and the People’s Bank of China This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

We’ll use whatever instrument is appropriate No one argued for a 50 basis point cut A number of governors a few weeks ago would have argued to skip a rate cut We will determine our monetary policy stance based on what is appropriate We are not targeting any exchange rate The euro has bounced back

First of all, I think all the talk about the Fed losing independence can be ignored. It’s not going to happen. The chances are so low that it doesn’t even deserve the attention. But let’s say it does happen, what would be the consequences? Well, pretty much pure chaos. The extent of the damage to

Treasury Secretary Bessent is reportedly to meet Italy’s economic minister on Tuesday at the G20 summit. Trump is expected to meet with Italy’s prime minister today. Italy’s Economic minister says: Tax policy including domestic digital levies is matter to be negotiated with US at bilateral not EU level. Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni is scheduled

The US treasury will auction off 2, 5 and 7 year notes next week, along with traditional bill auctions. Below is the schedule. April 21 (Monday) • $76 billion in 13-week bills • $68 billion in 26-week bills April 22 (Tuesday) • $69 billion in 2-year notes • $70 billion in 6-week bills April 23

It’s been a good day for crude oil yesterday as the market benefited from a couple of positive headlines. The first one came in the European session when we got the Bloomberg report saying that China was open for talks with US. That triggered a quick rally as markets look forward to de-escalation on trade

Most indicators point to inflation returning to target Inflation has declined Geopolitical tensions are a major source of uncertainty A strong euro could push down inflation The euro has edged lower as she takes a dovish tone. The market is pricing in a 68% chance of a rate cut in June. This article was written

Pres. Trump is saying that he is very confident on a trade deal with the EU. Moving along on trade very well Expects to make announcement about trade deals but are in no rush. Will end up with substantial number of baseline tariffs. We will make a very good deal with China Italian PM Meloni

South Korea’s central bank, the Bank of Korea, holds policy rates, as expected benchmark interest rate held at 2.75% BoK Governor Rhee Chang-yong will hold a news conference from around around 0210 GMT / 2210 US Eastern time. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

Headlines: Dollar steadier as risk bounces a little ahead of European trading today Dow futures turn negative as UnitedHealth lowers annual profit forecast China maintains it is open to negotiations with US on trade, calls for mutual respect Japan finance minister expresses deep concern over impact of Trump’s tariffs Trump: Jerome Powell is always too

Reuters is reporting that ECB sources are saying: Some ECB governors already see high chance of a June rate cut. Other governors still far from deciding, placing increased emphasis on real-time soft indicators. The lean is for a cut but not decided which is not surprising. This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

We will be moving away from goals for the balance of the year, perhaps we can resume next year Tariffs are higher than we expected even in our upside case To the extent it takes longer for tariffs to hit, that risks higher inflation expectations Our role is to make sure this is a one-time

No comment on forex or tariff discussions This just adds to her remarks from earlier here. This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

Positive comments on trade from Pres. Trump as given the stock little bit of a boost to the upside. The S&P index is now up 34 points or 0.65% 5309.44. The NASDAQ index which traded as low as -126 points is now up 24 points or 0.15%. The Dow industrial average remains negative by 352

Donald Trump wrote today that he likes ECB policy, how about Fed Chair Lagarde? For now, her job is European rate and we will hear from her at 8:45 am ET or 1345 GMT. Better than the video is the low-latency feed here. This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

Citibank sees gold prices rallying to $3500 over the next three months. The previous estimate was $3000 with the average of $3250 during Q2 2025. This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

Prior month 1.501M (revised to 1.494M) Building permits 1.482M vs 1.446M expected Prior month 1.459M These numbers are still within the range of the last two years. High rates are weighing on the housing market but it’s not really cracking meaningfully. This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at www.forexlive.com.

The ECB cut rates by 25 basis points and the Lagarde press conference is over. A summary by topic of the comments from Lagarde (and ECB) : Growth & Economic Outlook The Euro area economy is resilient, but the growth outlook is deteriorating. Outlook remains clouded by uncertainty, with consumers likely to hold back on

The New York Times was out late yesterday with a report relevant to the Middle East and oil traders: Israeli officials had recently developed plans to attack Iranian nuclear sites in May to set back Iran’s nuclear program by a year. Trump made clear to Netanyahu that he would not provide American support for an

The ECB cut rates by 25 basis points, as expected, with a unanimous decision. The press conference is set to begin at 8:45 AM ET. From a technical perspective, the EURUSD broke below its 100-hour moving average, currently at 1.13495—a key short-term bias barometer. The break increases the bearish tilt, with the next key target

Anna Paulson will be the next Philadelphia Fed Pres. She will replace Patrick Harker who has been the Philadelphia Fed Pres. since July 1, 2015. Paulson was the Chicago Fed research director. She will be the next president and CEO of the Federal Reserve of Philadelphia (which is the title of Harker). Details from the

IMF’s Georgieva is on the wires saying: Real economies are functioning. Labor markets are quite strong We swee sharp increae in uncertainty, but fundamentals are still quite strong We do recognize that there is significang change in economic conditions, expect to see policy pivots in other areas including tax Asked by people are expecting recession,

The major indices are opening up mixed with the Dow industrial average down sharply while the NASDAQ and S&P index are rebounding after yesterday’s declines. UnitedHealth Group (UNH) reported Q1 earnings that missed expectations, with EPS of $7.20 vs. $7.37 expected, and revenue of $109.6 billion vs. $111.55 billion expected. The company also cut its

China foreign ministry, on U.S. tariffs: If the United States continues to play the tariff numbers game, China will pay no attention This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

Trade balance data from Japan for March 2025 544.1bn JPY expected +485.3bn yen, prior +590.5bn Exports +3.9% expected +4.5%, prior +11.4% Exports to: US +3.1% y/y EY -1.1% y/y China -4.8% y/y Asia +5.5% y/y Imports +2.0% expected +3.1%, prior -0.7% This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

Putin had a long conversation with Trump’s envoy Witkoff about Ukraine. Now the United States is continuing with Europeans and Ukrainians. Unfortunately, so far we only see the Europeans focusing on a continuation of the war. More from the Russian Foreign Ministry: Ukraine continues to break on a daily basis the moratorium on energy strikes.

Earlier Pres. Trump railed on Fed Chair Powell (aka Too Late Powell) on Truth Social saying Megan Messerly’s X post reports that Treasury Secretary Bessent has been warning privately that removing Fed Chair Jerome Powell could cause market instability. Trump is reportedly aware of this, so even though he’s upset with Powell again, Powell’s job

The markets move the most on surprises or fresh news because they price or reprice future expectations. On a daily basis, probably 99% of the news that gets published is actually useless for the market because it doesn’t change anything or it’s not what the market is focused on. As an example, yesterday we got

The AUDUSD continues to trade in a choppy, range-bound market since Tuesday. During the late Asian and early European sessions, the pair found support at 0.6334, which sits within a key swing area between 0.6326 and 0.6341 (see green numbered circles on the chart above). On the topside, today’s high stalled at 0.6382, just below

Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City President Jeffrey Schmid. There’s a lot of nervousness in the agricultural sector from tariffs I’m an optimist, need to be patient to see how it plays out We will react to disruptions that might affect mandates more to come This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

Let’s dive straight into the calls (h/t @ MNI Markets). Deutsche Bank- 25 bps rate cut- “Even with the US tariff pause, the arguments now clearly favour a cut”- “The hit to growth from reciprocal tariffs, uncertainty and financial conditions likely exceeds what the ECB was expecting”- “We expect the “meaningfully less restrictive” language to

Prior -0.2% The decline owes in large part to a fall in energy prices (-2.8%). If you strip that out, German producer prices were actually up 0.2% on the month and also up 1.4% year-on-year. This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

The ECB will announce its interest decision imminently with expectations of a 25 basis point cut. Meanwhile stocks are starting the US session with the Dow down by about -600 points, but the S&P is up marginally and the Nasdaq is also up marginally. US yields are higher by a basis point of two. The

Monetary policy is well positioned, doesn’t see need to change rates any time soon Tariffs will drive up inflation this year and lower growth There isn’t much support for a rate cut any time soon, though markets are pricing in a big pivot and quickly. This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

But that’s the market over the past two weeks with respect to flows regarding Trump’s tariffs. There’s just a struggle of confidence in the dollar at the moment on multiple fronts. After the beating yesterday, US futures are holding higher for now with S&P 500 futures up 0.7%. It’s still early in the day but

Employment Change +32.2K expected +40K, prior -52.3K Full-Time Employment +15K prior -35.7K Part-Time Employment +17.2K prior -17K Unemployment Rate 4.1% expected 4.2%, prior 4.1% Participation Rate 66.8% expected 67.0%, prior 66.8% *** An improved report from February, but the added jobs did not match what was expected by the market. With the unemployment rate still

The rate decision is going to be rather straightforward, with the ECB set to cut key policy rates by 25 bps today. So, is there anything else to watch out for as the central bank delivers the same decision for a sixth consecutive time? Let’s take a look. The thing that will be scrutinised heavily

Reuters is out with an ECB sources report already, noting that the decision to cut was unanimous. There are some dovish indications in the statement and now the ECB is racing this out. The market may have initially reacted to the line that policy was no longer restrictive but the text also said that financial

Energy stocks surge as healthcare giants make strides Today’s market heatmap reveals a marked shift as energy stocks gain significant traction, while healthcare giants make noteworthy advances. Investors are navigating a dynamic landscape shaped by sector-specific drivers and macroeconomic influences. ⚡ Energy Sector: Powering Ahead ExxonMobil (XOM) and Chevron (CVX) lead the charge with gains

Rate cuts by year-end Fed: 86 bps (84% probability of no change at the upcoming meeting) ECB: 79 bps (99% probability of rate cut at today’s decision) BoE: 79 bps (87% probability of rate cut at the upcoming meeting) BoC: 45 bps (52% probability of no change at the upcoming meeting) RBA: 118 bps (78%

Need to roll out policy measures at critical timing, act early and swiftly Should deliver policies precisely, enhance communications with markets Should guide formation of clear, stable market expectations His other remarks are pretty normal but the headline comment stands out a little. That appears to be a cryptic message perhaps on trade relations with

Trump: “Had a very productive call with the President of Mexico yesterday. Likewise, I met with the highest level Japanese Trade Representatives. It was a very productive meeting. Every Nation, including China, wants to meet! Today, Italy!” The little part citing China is what triggered a spike in risk assets. There are probably algos set

Singapore Non-oil Domestic Exports (NODX) miss forecasts +5.4% y/y in March expected +14.1%, prior +7.6% Exports to Taiwan, Indonesia, Hong Kong, Thailand, Japan and South Korea increased y/y Exports to China declined. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

There aren’t any major expiries to take note of on the day. And as a reminder, the Easter break coming tomorrow also dampens any interest on this towards the end of the week. Trading sentiment will continue to rely on the same drivers as it has been since last week i.e. broader market mood and

US stocks close lower but rally modestly into the close Oh no! Oil is higher. Crude oil futures settle $62.47 Nasdaq takes a turn for the worse after the peak from the Trump U-turn holds China pivots from the US to Canada for more oil amid trade war Powell sees strong possibility that trade progress

Prior week initial jobless claims 223K revised to 224K Initial jobless claims 215K vs 225K estimate 4-week moving average of initial jobless claims 220.75K vs 223.25 last week. . Continuing claims 1.885 Mvs 1.872M estimate Prior week continuing claims 1.850M revised to 1.844M 4-week moving average of continuing claims 1.867M vs 1.866M last week. The

Tariffs present a major challenge, uncertainty unseen for a long time in Japan Difficult to assess the impact of tariffs on the economy and prices currently It’s not just Japan but pretty much all central banks across the globe that is feeling this way. It’s the same for the Fed as well when viewing Powell’s

US stocks are closing mostly lower but rarely modestly into the close. It could’ve been worse: Dow industrial average fell -699.57 points or -1.73% to 39669.39. S&P index fell -120.93 points or -2.24% to 5275.70. NASDAQ index fell – -516.01 points or -3.07% to 16307.16. Russell 2000 fell -19.44 points or -1.03% to 1863.47. Shares

Prior decision Deposit facility rate 2.25% vs 2.25% expected Prior 2.50% Main refinancing rate 2.40% vs 2.40% expected Prior 2.65% Marginal lending facility 2.65% Prior 2.90% *Reference to restrictive policy is omitted* The disinflation process is well on track Determined to ensure that inflation stabilises sustainably at its 2% medium-term target Not pre-committing to a

Here are the forecasts from Deutsche Bank for the years ahead: Deutsche Bank’s reasoning is as follows. Key medium-term USD bearish drivers: Supportive EU vs. US fiscal stance: thanks to German fiscal policy. Valuations: Purchasing power parity in the 1.25-1.30 range acts as medium-term anchor for EUR/USD amid geopolitical uncertainty. US asset risk premium &

Fundamental Overview After a brief consolidation in the first part of the week, gold eventually broke out into a new all-time high and surged by more than 3% in just a day. The precious metal has been the only game in town recently as the uncertainty and risk off flows haven’t even supported bonds, which

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Prior was +12.5 Details: 6 month index: 6.9 vs 5.6 last month Capex index 6-month forward: 2.0 vs 13.4 last month Employment: 0.2 vs 19.7 last month Prices paid: 51.0 vs 48.3 last month New orders: -34.2 vs 8.7 last month Shipments: -9.1 vs 2.0 last month Unfilled orders: -1.1 vs 0.6 last month Delivery

Deeply concerned about US tariffs affecting Japan, world economy Impact could be felt via various routes such as trade and financial markets There’s a risk of exerting downwards pressure on Japan’s economy No comment on what will be discussed on FX at possible meeting with Bessent No change to Japan’s stance over recent FX market

As a reminder, we’ll have market closures in Australia, New Zealand, Europe, as well as the UK in the coming two business days. It is that time of the year where the Easter Bunny is out to play for the weekend. In Europe, the Euronext, Xetra, and LSE are all closed as well as the

The yen declined against other G-10 and Asian currencies after reports confirmed that foreign exchange issues were not discussed in Wednesday’s U.S.-Japan tariff talks. Japan economy minister Akazawa says agreed to hold a 2nd meeting with US this month This helped ease market worries that the Trump administration might target Japan’s currency policies. Despite this

After the strong risk rally triggered by Trump’s pause in reciprocal tariffs, most markets just went into consolidation awaiting new information. Bitcoin is one of those markets. The focus switched towards trade negotiations and we are waiting for the first trade deals to start building expectations. We could just range until then. There are some

Earlier today we had the official CPI data from NZ: New Zealand Q1 CPI +2.5% y/y (expected +2.3%) & +0.9% q/q (expected +0.7%) From the Reserve Bank of New Zealand now, its model falling below Q4 and under the top of its 3% band: *** Reserve Bank of New Zealand’s sectoral factor model of inflation,

UnitedHealth pulls the heaviest weight in the Dow and so them slashing earnings outlook for the year while reporting an earnings miss in Q1 is weighing on the index. Dow futures have erased earlier gains to be down 0.8% now with UNH shares indicated down by over 16% in pre-market trading. This is also weighing

While Trump may have hailed “big progress” in talks with Japan yesterday, the tone struck by Ryosei Akazawa wasn’t as optimistic. Japan’s economy minister is the one tasked to lead trade talks and the most he said was that “for our part, we want to do it (make a deal) as soon as possible”. But

Eurostoxx -0.3% Germany DAX +0.1% France CAC 40 -0.5% UK FTSE -0.7% Spain IBEX -0.5% Italy FTSE MIB -0.4% The drop here offsets the gains from yesterday, though the broader market mood is looking a little more positive today. There’s a slight bounce in US futures with S&P 500 futures seen up 0.9% at the

Reserve Bank of New Zealand news: Reserve Bank of New Zealand Assistant Governor Simone Robbers resigns Finishes up at the end of May 2025 Assistant Governor/General Manager Strategy, Engagement and Sustainability Former RBNZ Governor Orr resigned abruptly in March. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

The wheels are coming off the equity market with the S&P 500 down nearly 3% and the Nasdaq down 4.2%. The market was evidently looking for a nod to rate cuts from Powell and it didn’t come. Now we’re getting some serious kicking and screaming. USD/JPY has broken the 2025 low and is trading at

Powell is always too late and wrong. Fed should have lowered interest rates long ago. Powell’s termination cannot come fast enough. Trump has been criticising Powell since his first term. Powell’s term expires in May 2026. This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at www.forexlive.com.

Bank of Japan Governor Ueda says keeping low rates even when underlying inflation is accelerating could result in a situation where we would be forced to hike rapidly. Also: FX rates should move stably reflecting fundamentals Ueda spoke earlier: Bank of Japan Governor Ueda says can’t tell right now how tariffs will impact prices Bank

Prior CHF 4.80 billion; revised to CHF 4.74 billion The Swiss trade surplus expanded in March as exports were seen up 22.2% on the month while imports increased by 19.4% on the month. Swiss watch exports were seen up 1.5% year-on-year in nominal terms to CHF 2.13 billion. This article was written by Justin Low

German DAX futures -0.1% French CAC 40 futures -0.2% UK FTSE futures -0.4% There is a balance to be struck with European indices needing to catch up a little to the declines in Wall Street overnight and also the bounce in the risk mood so far today. At the balance, that is pointing to a

Japan economy minister Akazawa Told U.S. negotiation counterparts Japan wants best solution as soon as possible for both nations Strongly requested revocation of tariffs on Japan Agreed to hold second meeting this month This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

The Atlanta Fed GDPNow growth estimate for Q2 improved to -2.2% from -2.4% on April 9. The GPS meant adjusting for imports and exports of gold also improved to -0.1% from -0.2% last estimate. in their own words The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the first quarter of

Good morning, afternoon and evening all. Any charts, technical analysis, trade ideas, thoughts, views, ForexLive traders would like to share and discuss with fellow ForexLive traders, please do so: This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

Awaiting news on this. I’ll be keen to hear the readout from Japanese officials, I suspect it’ll be more reliable than any we’ll get from the US side. I’m not suggesting the US side is deceptive, its just that the grasp they have on reality is mainly lacking. Oh, here we go, Trump says ‘big

Maintaining normal communication with US counterparts China is open to negotiations on economic, trade areas Calls for US to stop threats and blackmail, to resolve issues on basis of mutual respect This when asked about the notion that Trump says the ball is in China’s court. In essence, they’re throwing the ball back over or

Bank of Japan Governor Ueda U.S. tariffs affect Japan’s economy through various channels Higher-than-expected U.S. tariffs raised global economic uncertainties, caused market turmoil U.S. tariffs could exert downward pressure on global, domestic economy, while can’t tell right now which way they would impact prices Frequently have one-on-one meetings with policymakers from other countries Plan to

Bank of Japan Governor Ueda: Japan’s economy recovering moderately albeit with some weak signs Japan’s economy, prices moving roughly in line with our forecasts but must be vigilant to heightening uncertainty including from each country’s trade policy Japan’s financial system maintaining stability as a whole Japan’s real interest rates remain very low BOJ expected to

Financial Times reporting: Intel has informed Chinese clients it will start needing a license to sell some of its advanced artificial intelligence processors This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

Oh no. Oil prices are now moving up too. US yields moved 50 basis points last week and although the 10 year yield is down -23 basis points this week. They are still much higher than the 3.86% low yield seen in early April (the current 10 year yield is at 4.27% which is down

Bank of Japan Governor Ueda on what would make him hike rates rapidly The weaker yen today – U.S./Japan tariff talks steering clear of FX concerns cited RBNZ’s own preferred inflation model 2.9% for Q1 2025 (prior was 3.1% y/y in Q4 2024) Trump will meet with Italy’s PM Meloni on Thursday, April 17 China

New Zealand data, Q1 2025 CPI: +0.9% q/q expected +0.7%, prior +0.5% +2.5% y/y expected +2.3%, prior +2.2% more to come Non-Tradeables +1.1% q/q (expected +0.8%) and +4.0% y/y tradeables +0.7% q/q (expected +0.8%) NZD/USD a touch higher after the data: *** “Tradable” and “Non-tradable” inflation are terms used to describe different aspects of inflation

Reuters reporting: Trump, in discussions with Japan, brought up increasing its burden on military front, Kyodo reports citing govt source Complicating the trade discussions a whole lot! Ishiba & Trump at an earlier meeting This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

Ford Motor Co. has warned dealers that vehicle prices could rise on models produced from May onwards if President Trump’s auto tariffs remain in place. While its current nationwide discount program will continue through 2 June, the company said pricing for newer models may need to be adjusted due to rising costs. Reuters cite a

Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell said he doesn’t believe a high-profile Supreme Court case over former President Donald Trump’s dismissal of two Democrats from federal labor boards poses a threat to the Fed’s independence. Speaking at the Economic Club of Chicago, Powell acknowledged the case is being closely watched but said, “I don’t think that

The People’s Bank of China (PBOC), China’s central bank, is responsible for setting the daily midpoint of the yuan (also known as renminbi or RMB). The PBOC follows a managed floating exchange rate system that allows the value of the yuan to fluctuate within a certain range, called a “band,” around a central reference rate,

Gold has surged to new highs amid persistent overnight buying from Asia, with volumes well above average. Goldman Sachs highlights that despite the rally, positioning is not yet stretched. Their bullish year-end forecast now stands at $3,700/oz, with a $4,500/oz tail-risk scenario under potential Fed policy shifts. Key Points: Asian Buying Momentum:Spot gold broke Monday’s

If Canada is able to play its cards right, there are enormous and highly economic long-life oil assets that can be exploited. It would require pipelines to the west coast but there is an increasing national acceptance for those kinds of projects due to antagonism from the United States. This is just a headline from

BoJ board member Nakagawa: U.S. tariff policy, overseas economic and market developments among risks to Japan’s economic outlook Uncertainty over U.S. tariffs could affect household, corporate sentiment, Japan’s economy and prices Excessive market volatility may put downward pressure on Japan’s economy Companies still in process of passing on raw material costs Considering current real interest

We didn’t get much, well none really, detail from the meeting: Japan economy minister Akazawa says agreed to hold a 2nd meeting with US this month Ishiba says economy minister Akazawa reported the talks were constructive. talks will not be easy going forward Ishiba says he’ll visit the US at an appropriate time time to

Japan inflation indications from a Reuters poll. A growing majority of Japanese companies are preparing to raise prices in the face of rising labour and raw material costs Of the firms polled, 13% said they had already increased prices in the business year that began April 1, while a further 70% said they are considering

People’s Bank of China USD/CNY reference rate is due around 0115 GMT. The People’s Bank of China (PBOC), China’s central bank, is responsible for setting the daily midpoint of the yuan (also known as renminbi or RMB). The PBOC follows a managed floating exchange rate system that allows the value of the yuan to fluctuate

New Zealand inflation data and Aussie jobs report are a couple of focal points for the calendar ahead. The slight tick higher expected for NZ CPI will not prevent further rate cuts from the Reserve Bank of New Zealand. Not in this tariff-war-led pre-recession environment. Last month’s Australian jobs report showed a substantial drop in

Deutsche Bank expects the European Central Bank to cut its policy rates by 25 basis points to 2.25% at its meeting on 17 April. While the ECB left the door open in March for either a rate cut or a pause, the balance of risks has since shifted decisively in favour of easing. The economic

Shares of United Airlines rose nearly 10% after hours yesterday following earnings but ultimately gave it all back, in part because of a bearish shift in the broader market. One of the things that weighed was commentary from the company that tilted bearish and highlighted real weakness from consumers, particularly in the middle class. Some

President Trump’s announcement of a 90-day pause to ‘reciprocal but not really reciprocal’ tariffs led to one of the all-time great Nasdaq rallies as the index soared 10%. The day afterwards it gave a big chunk back before embarking on a fresh effort to make new highs following a weekend suspension of electronics tariffs. However

Growth likely slowed in Q1 Economy solid despite heightened uncertainty and downside risks Inflation is a bit above 2% goal, has come down a great deal So far larger than expected tariffs likely mean higher inflation and slower growth Sharp decline in business, household sentiment and elevated uncertainty reflect trade policy concerns Labor market solid,

The US Customs and Border Protection told CNBC that the department has collected more than $500 million under Pres. Trump’s latest tariffs. That is woefully short of the $2 billion per day that Pres. Trump repeatedly cites. If true, how long will it take for Pres. Trump to enact tariffs that truly brings in $2B?

Gold continues to surge, record high hit above US$3271 Geopolitical tensions Trade war Central banks remain buyers ETF demand The usual suspects! This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

Today’s press conference won’t be on Tiff Macklem’s highlight reel. The Bank of Canada Governor struggled to offer any kind of guidance about policy going forward or even a framework for how to think about trade war policy. Instead, he struggled through a series of canned, disjointed talking points. In one instance, he repeated that

High yield 4.810% WI level at the time of the auction 4.814%. Tail -0.4 basis points versus six-month average of +0.8 basis points Bid to cover 2.63X vs six-month average of 2.56X Directs 12.32% vs six-month average of 17.9% Indirects 70.68% vs six-month average of 66.8% Dealers 16.99% vs six-month average of 15.3% This article

Reserve Bank of New Zealand more to come This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

Here’s a summary of the other calls for 2025 on China GDP: ANZ: 4.2% (previously 4.8%) Citi: 4.2% (previously 4.7%) Goldman Sachs: 4% (previously 4.5%) Morgan Stanley: 4.2% (previously 4.5%) UBS: 3.4% (previously 4%) This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

The Bank of Canada kept rates unchanged. That took the price below the 100 hour moving average of 1.39144, but the low price at 1.3882 is still above the low price from yesterday’s trade near 1.3850 and above the low price from Monday’s trade 1.38278. The Monday low was the lowest level going back to

Prior was +0.2% Details: Ex-autos +0.5% vs +0.3% exp Prior ex autos +0.3% (revised to +0.7%) Control group +0.4% vs +0.6% expected Prior control +1.0% (revised to +1.3%) This is a good set of headlines and the upward revisions nullify the slight miss on the control group. Never underestimate the spending power of the US

The Bank of Canada Governor holds a press conference and takes questions from reporters along with Senior Deputy Governor Carolyn Rogers. Highlights: We are navigating carefully The Canadian economy started the year in a good place In March, we said we would be less-forward looking Much has happened since March but the situation is no

The BoC is expected to keep rates unchanged at 2.75% today. As a reminder, the BoC cut interest rates by 25 basis points to 2.75% as expected at the last meeting amid concerns over weaker growth ahead due to the trade uncertainty and US tariffs. The central bank emphasized a cautious approach to future decisions,

The USD is lower versus the three major currencies – the EUR, JPY and GBP.. This video takes a look at the technicals that traders should be following to determine the bias, the risk, and targets for these three currency pairs. EURUSD: The EURUSD moved lower yesterday but held support at its rising 100-hour moving

German DAX futures -1.1% French CAC 40 futures -1.5% UK FTSE futures -1.2% US-China trade tensions continue to weigh as Trump’s latest move is to ban Nvidia from selling is H20 chips to China. Besides that, ASML’s miss on net bookings in Q1 is also a negative point on the day. US futures are also

Fed Chairman Jerome Powell is set to speak at the bottom of the hour. Ahead of that, the market is pricing in a 16% chance of a cut in May and a 76% chance of a cut in June. Waller made a dovish shift this week but other Fed officials have been preaching patience and

Policy patience will allow the Fed to gather more data on the economy Fed in position to take time and assess Beings slow and reacting correctly is better than going too fast If job market holds and inflation rises, a more restrictive path is needed IF growth falters and inflation eases, Fed could cut even

Sector Overview Today’s stock market heatmap reveals a stark divergence in sector performances. The technology sector is awash in red, with significant declines, while energy and certain areas of healthcare show resilience. 📉 Technology & Semiconductors: Key players like Nvidia (NVDA) plummeted 5.98%, leading a broader decline in the semiconductor space. Echoing this downturn, both

US retail sales are due at he bottom of the hour and expected to rise 1.3% on the headline, 0.3% ex-autos. and 0.6% on the control group. The first thing to watch is whether the plunge in consumer confidence since January has led to any decreases in spending. The indication from most companies is that

Rather than providing a traditional base-case projection, the Bank of Canada has presented two illustrative scenarios to account for the uncertainty around US trade policy. The Bank of Canada had previously signaled it would revise down its 2025 GDP forecasts, and indeed, in Scenario 1 (where most tariffs are eventually negotiated away), growth is projected

Cleveland Fed Pres. Hammack is adding additional comments saying: It is not appropriate to respond to every twist and turn of markets. Focuses on how markets impact economy, not focused on asset prices per se. It’s going to take time to see how trade policies impact economy. ‘Right thing’ might be to stay on hold

Central Bank Digital Currencies (CBDCs) have moved from being merely theoretical concepts to a stage when dozens of countries throughout the world are actively testing them in various pilot schemes. Designed as a government-backed digital version of fiat money, CBDCs combine the trust of centralised monetary systems with the flexibility of digital payments. Unlike cryptocurrencies,

Prior was 39 Details: Single family 45 vs 43 prior Prospective buyers 25 vs 24 prior Sales expectations 43 vs 47 prior There has been some good news for the battered US housing market today as building materials were strong in the retail sales report and now sentiment has picked up. To be far, a

Japan economy minister, Ryosei Akazawa, will be meeting with Trump himself alongside Bessent and Lutnick later today. As a reminder, Japan was slapped with 24% tariffs initially prior to the pause last week and they are still subject to the 25% auto tariffs separate to that. As much as Japan tried to talk a hard

The tech-heavy NASDAQ index is under heavy pressure today, led by sharp declines in semiconductor stocks. Sentiment has soured following news that Nvidia will take a $5.5 billion charge due to new U.S. export restrictions that require licensing to ship its H20 AI processors to China and other countries. Currently, Nvidia (NVDA) shares are down

At 9:45 AM ET, the Bank of Canada (BoC) will announce its rate decision (see Adam’s preview here). The outcome is uncertain, with markets split on whether the central bank will cut rates or hold steady. Before the recent wave of tariffs, the BoC appeared poised to slow its easing cycle. However, the expected drag

The AUDUSD has extended to a new session high, reaching 0.6388—a level that aligns with swing highs from March 18 and April 4. This area marks a key resistance ceiling. A sustained break above it is needed to strengthen the bullish bias. Should buyers push through, the next upside target would be the high from

U.S. plans to use tariff negotiations to isolate China: U.S. officials plan to use negotiations with more than 70 nations to ask them to disallow China to ship goods through their countries more to come Link here for more (gated) Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent wants trading partners to limit China’s involvement in their economies in

Prior was 2.75% The market was pricing in a 42% chance of a cut and 58% chance of no change A slight majority of economists were expecting no change There is also an unusual degree of uncertainty about the economic outcomes within any tariff scenario Tariffs and uncertainty have weakened the outlook for global growth

The latest Bank of America fund manager’s survey is out and this is the headline-grabbing chart. It’s a survey of global investors asking them if they plan to cut their weighing of US equities and it shows that 65% want to be underweight. Now that may turn out to be a contra indicator as it’s

Learn the Option Greeks: Delta, Gamma, Theta, Vega & Rho Explained Welcome to Article 4 of the Learn Options Series, a key step in your journey toward mastering stock options education. Today, we introduce you to the Option Greeks, the core metrics that help you measure and manage risk, probability, and time sensitivity in options

The World Bank’s Banga is speaking and says: Foreign aid is a temporary method to help challenged countries, but will not be the long-term solution for development The right regulatory environment must be created to encourage private investment in developing countries and to create jobs The ‘all of the above’ energy strategy will be discussed

There are some big ones to take note of on the day, as highlighted in bold. But again as a caveat, do be reminded that trading sentiment continues to be more influenced by the broader market sentiment and headline risk at this stage. For today, the signs are pointing to further dollar weakness amid a

China open to talks if Trump shows respect, names point person. China wants Trump to rein in cabinet members, show consistency. China wants US talks to address concerns on Taiwan, sanctions. This is a report from Bloomberg and it triggered some risk-on moves. The markets are eager for positive headlines and resolutions between US and

Trump made good on his promise, imposing tariffs on dozens of countries starting April 9. But it didn’t last long. Just hours later, the U.S. president posted on Truth Social, announcing a “90-day PAUSE” and a significantly reduced reciprocal tariff during that time. The markets reacted instantly. The S&P 500, Nasdaq, and Dow Jones bounced

Fitch is out on global turmoil and says: Deep cuts to growth forecast as global trade war escalates. Still expects Federal Reserve to wait until Q4 before cutting rates despite deteriorating US growth outlook. We now expect deeper rate cuts from ECB and in emerging markets. Expect some additional US tariff revenues to be recycled

The seasonally adjusted figure was €34.3 billion. There were surpluses recorded for goods (€34 billion) and services (€14 billion) on the month. These were partially offset by deficits for secondary income (€10 billion) and primary income (€3 billion). This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

JP Morgan says it has turned bearish on base metal prices in the near term forecast 2q25 averages of $8,300/MT for copper and average price of $8,812/MT for 2025 Aluminium: 2q25 averages of $2,200/MT and an average price of $2,369/MT for 2025 Nickel: average $14,000/MT in 2q25, with an average price of $15,020/MT for 2025

The Bank of Canada today maintained its target for the overnight rate at 2.75%, with the Bank Rate at 3% and the deposit rate at 2.70%. The major shift in direction of US trade policy and the unpredictability of tariffs have increased uncertainty, diminished prospects for economic growth, and raised inflation expectations. Pervasive uncertainty makes

But just in case this was missed, you can check out the White House fact sheet here. It says: “China now faces up to a 245% tariff on imports to the United States as a result of its retaliatory actions.” Beijing had already responded last week in saying that they will ignore the US on

Markets are keeping a close eye on a legal challenge involving two Democrats fired from federal labor boards by Trump, as the case raises broader concerns about the future of independent institutions like the Federal Reserve. ICYMI: Is Trump building the foundations to fire Fed Chair Powell and other Fed members? “A political Federal Reserve

The USDCHF has been choppy over the past four trading days, bouncing between support and resistance levels since bottoming near 0.8100 last Friday. The pair climbed to a high of 0.82678, then dipped to a higher low at 0.8118, before rebounding again yesterday to a session high near 0.82389. As price consolidates, the 100-hour moving

The precious metal is up over 2% on the day to hit $3,306 currently. There’s really not much else to say that hasn’t already been said at this point. The stars continue to align for gold amid this whole tariffs war and with the gains here, gold is up 26% on the year and sitting

There was some real optimism about Iran nuclear talks coming out of the weekend but now we are getting fresh US sanctions. The US also changed the venue of negotiations and Iran’s foreign minister is calling that a ‘professional error’, saying that “such a move could be interpreted as a lack of seriousness and good

USD/CAD has traded lower after the Bank of Canada opted to hold rates at 2.75%. Macklem will be asked about what’s next as the market prices in a 50/50 outcome of the June meeting. This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

Prior month 0.3% Business inventories 0.2% versus 0.2% estimate Total business inventories to $2590 versus $2585.2 billion last month Retail inventories ex auto 0.1% vs 0.5% prior month. Details from the Census Bureau Sales: Total sales (distributive trade + manufacturers’ shipments) rose 1.2% from January 2025 Sales increased 3.6% year-over-year from February 2024 Seasonally adjusted,

Prior +2.3% Core CPI +2.4% vs +2.4% y/y prelim Prior +2.6% No changes to the initial estimates and this won’t distract from the ECB cutting rates by 25 bps tomorrow. This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

After the strong rally triggered by Trump’s pause in the reciprocal tariffs, the S&P 500 hasn’t done much as the price just consolidated below a key resistance. The market has been waiting for more information on the negotiations front but as of now we haven’t got any, on the contrary, a couple of disappointing headlines

CNBC reported that China replaced its top international negotiator as talks with the US stalled. The new appointment makes Li Chenggang, a key member of China’s trade negotiation team. This could be a move to try to de-escalate things. We just got a report from Bloomberg this morning saying that China is open for talks

Opening statement Tiff Macklem Good morning. I’m pleased to be here with Senior Deputy Governor Carolyn Rogers to discuss today’s policy announcement and our April Monetary Policy Report (MPR). Today, Governing Council maintained the policy interest rate at 2.75% after seven consecutive rate cuts. The Canadian economy ended 2024 in good shape. Inflation had been

Prior was +2553K Gasoline -1958K vs -1595K exp Distillates -1851K vs -1180K exp Refinery utilization -0.4% vs +0.4% expected Private inventories from the API late yesterday: Crude +2400K Gasoline -3010K Distillates -3160K This is a decent report with some solid product draws. We’re nearing the end of the inventory building season and the start of

Prior was +0.7% (revised to +0.8%) Industrial production y/y +1.34% vs +1.44% prior Ex cars/parts -0.4% vs +0.4% prior Capacity utilization 77.8% vs 78.0% expected Manufacturing output +0.3% vs +0.3% expected This is a setback and comes despite a another strong month for auto manufacturing. That runs against the downbeat commentary from automakers. This article

A comparison of the March statement to the April statement reflects the “major shift” in the US trade policy and unpredictability of tariffs. Hence the second verse (April) is no where near the first (March). Below is the red line change (or rather the complete re-write) FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE March 12, 2025 April 16, 20225

China March 2025 new home prices. No one will be turning cartwheels at these results, the property sector in China remains in dire straits with huge debt overhangs. And falling prices are a vicious circle, why buy now if prices are falling? … Rinse, repeat. Still, slightly less bad in March than in February. First

Urge US to stop threats and blackmail. If US wants to solve issues through dialogue, it should stop exerting maximum pressure. There are reports that the US is now pressuring its trading partners to limit China deals amid the tariff negotiations. This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at www.forexlive.com.

Headlines: Dollar comes under pressure again as risk mood gets unsettled Gold jumps above $3,300 as the surging run continues Trump: Japan is coming in today to negotiate tariffs and the cost of military support China says open to talks if Trump shows respect, names point person China Foreign Ministry: Urge US to stop threats

Wants Trump to rein in Cabinet members, show consistency Wants US talks to address concerns on Taiwan, sanctions This is causing a spike up in risk but I’m not really seeing why. China has made it clear that they are open to resolving things via dialogue as they have said many a time. And after

Prior +20.0% Market index 267.5 vs 292.3 prior Purchase index 164.2 vs 172.7 prior Refinance index 841.9 vs 961.4 prior 30-year mortgage rate 6.81% vs 6.61% prior The spike in the average rate of the most popular US home loan wasn’t as profound to be honest but still enough to put a drag on overall

Uncertain global economic landscape? US-China trade tensions still not looking to be resolved? Yuan devaluation on the cards? The US dollar struggling on a multitude of reasons? Markets continuing to look shaky and fragile? Those are just some reasons why gold is continuing to be favoured in this environment. And all of those factors are

Japan is coming in today to negotiate tariffs, the cost of military support and “trade fairness”. I will attend the meeting, along with Treasury and Commerce secretaries. Hopefully something can be worked out which is good (GREAT!) for Japan and the USA. Trump is up and running and providing updates on his schedule. This article

Learn Vertical Spreads: Master Risk-Defined Strategies in Options Trading 101 Welcome to our Vertical Spreads 5 article, part of the ForexLive.com (to evolve to investingLive.com later this year) Learn Options Series, where your journey into stock options education continues with a hands-on introduction to vertical spreads. These strategies are a cornerstone of options trading for

Federal Reserve Chair Powell speaks on the economic outlook today, Wednesday, April 16 Morgan Stanley cuts outlook for China and Asia stock indexes China’s fighting words on Trump’s tariffs – world economic order has been severely damaged China Industrial Output March 2025 surges to +7.7% y/y (expected 5.8%, prior +5.9%) China Q1 GDP +1.2% q/q

Prior +2.8% Core CPI +3.4% vs +3.4% y/y expected Prior +3.5% The readings are more or less in line with estimates, with the headline being a touch softer than expected. The market was pricing in ~80% odds of a rate cut for next month, so this won’t do anything to derail that considering the other

Greg had the data on Tuesday, US time: a sharp deterioration in business sentiment The survey was conducted April 2 to 9, just after the destructive reciprocal announcement but prior to Trump’s 90 day pause. It makes for ugly reading. The outlook for the future is dire, bolding mine: Firms turned pessimistic about the Outlook

Hong Kong SAR government statement said that Hongkong Post suspends the postal service for items containing goods to the US: “The Government of the United States (US) announced earlier that it would eliminate the duty-free de minimis treatment for postal items despatched from Hong Kong to the US and increase the tariffs for postal items

Rate cuts by year-end Fed: 88 bps (81% probability of no change at the upcoming meeting) ECB: 85 bps (99% probability of rate cut at the upcoming meeting) BoE: 83 bps (85% probability of rate cut at the upcoming meeting) BoC: 50 bps (57% probability of no change at today’s meeting) RBA: 120 bps (86%

Good morning, afternoon and evening all. Any charts, technical analysis, trade ideas, thoughts, views, ForexLive traders would like to share and discuss with fellow ForexLive traders, please do so: This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

US government has indefinitely banned Nvidia from selling H20 chips to China: Nvidia expects US$5.5 billion charge related to this for this quarter After hours trade in NVDA has the shares limit down. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

It’s not looking good for the dollar again with both the euro and franc pretty much erasing losses from yesterday already. EUR/USD is up 0.6% to 1.1345 while USD/CHF is down 0.9% to 0.8150 levels and threatening to fall back to the Friday and Monday lows. Elsewhere, USD/JPY is down 0.5% to 142.50 while the

Trade wars and various economic crises lead to the search for safe assets. Gold has typically played a haven role during such periods, protecting investors from instability. However, given the intricacies of the modern world and the changes in the global economy and financial markets in 2025, the question arises: will gold retain its reputation

U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent to meet South Korea’s finance minister Choi next week to discuss trade issues South Korea’s finance ministry with the announcement. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

Fundamental Overview The USD remains under pressure against most major currencies although the fundamental backdrop remains unclear. The most popular narrative is that everyone is selling US assets, and the greenback is losing its reserve status as a consequence of the aggressive trade war. Such big claims are generally made at near term tops or

It was a quieter day on the tariff front, though there was a concerning report highlighting a lack of progress between the US and EU on tariffs. Closing changes: S&P 500 -0.2% Nasdaq Comp flat DJIA -0.4% Russell 2000 +0.1% Toronto TSX Comp +0.75% After hours, shares of United Airlines are up 8% after reporting

It just gets messier and messier. Reuters is now reporting that Nvidia has kept some of its China customers in the dark despite being informed about new restrictions to its H20 chips about a week ago, citing two sources familiar with the matter. Nvidia disclosed that US officials had informed the chipmaker on 9 April

ANZ raised its year-end forecast for gold price to $3,600 per ounce and six-month forecast to $3,500 expects silver’s rise to continue towards $34/oz Meanwhile, gold has hit a record high above US$3260.50 This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

1600 GMT/1200 US Eastern time – Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland President Beth Hammack speaks on “Fed 101” and participates in a moderated question-and-answer session before event, “Columbus Metropolitan Club Weekly Forum: Insights from Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack,” 1730 GMT/1330 US Eastern time – Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell speaks on the economic outlook

Just treat this with a pinch of salt (considering Hu is the one commenting) but it does provide some food for thought as to how China looks to be approaching this matter. He isn’t the first to speak these words as we’ve heard from many nationalists already that the strategy here is to not give

In the European session, the main highlight was the release of the UK CPI report. The data missed expectations across the board and although it doesn’t change much in the bigger picture (as the focus remains on tariffs), it will strengthen the market’s expectation for a 25 bps cut from the BoE at the upcoming

From yesterday: China calls for its airlines to halt any further Boeing jet deliveries amid trade strife Bloomberg with the latest update on the matter, reporting that Beijing is considering to ask Airbus to provide an extra set of engines to any new jets supplied to China. As the fallout with the US continues, the

Australia March Westpac Leading Index, Westpac’s summary points: The six-month annualised growth rate in the Westpac-Melbourne Institute Leading Index, which indicates the likely pace of economic activity relative to trend three to nine months into the future, slowed to 0.6% in March from 0.9% in February. Leading Index growth rate declines to 0.6%. Key components

People’s Bank of China USD/CNY reference rate is due around 0115 GMT. The People’s Bank of China (PBOC), China’s central bank, is responsible for setting the daily midpoint of the yuan (also known as renminbi or RMB). The PBOC follows a managed floating exchange rate system that allows the value of the yuan to fluctuate

Trump has launched a probe into the need for tariffs on critical minerals China earlier: ICYMI – China halts rare earth exports after new controls, raising global supply concerns This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

Learn Investing: What Makes the U.S. Dollar a Safe Haven — And When It Stops Being One Because even the world’s most trusted currency has a breaking point. You’ve probably heard it before: “In times of crisis, investors rush to the U.S. dollar.” But… why? If you’re just starting your investing journey, it might seem

Solid data this. Both retail sales and industrial output have surprised to the topside. The obvious caveat is that the Q1 GDP data (see below) and the economic activity data for March both pre-date the huge increase in tariffs from Trump that will weigh on the Chinese economy going forward. China is expcected to boost

US chip equipment makers calculate Trump’s tariffs could cost them more than USD 1bln annually: with tariffs estimated to cost Applied Materials, Lam Research and KLA Corp USD 350mln each per year Info via Reuters This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

more to come Measured remarks from Bank of America ICYMI: Bank of America CEO Brian Moynihan: “we potentially face a changing economy in the future” US consumers still spending, keep “pushing money into the economy” business clients “remain profitable, liquid and have strong results” We continue to watch for signs the environment is changing Bank

Morgan Stanley has lowered its year-end 2025 targets for several major Asian stock indexes, citing downgraded global and emerging market growth forecasts along with updated currency expectations. The bank said upside potential from current levels is limited, with near-term risks skewed to the downside. Revised targets include: TOPIX: cut to 2600 (from 3000) Hang Seng

The People’s Bank of China (PBOC), China’s central bank, is responsible for setting the daily midpoint of the yuan (also known as renminbi or RMB). The PBOC follows a managed floating exchange rate system that allows the value of the yuan to fluctuate within a certain range, called a “band,” around a central reference rate,

Japan Reuters Tankan Japanese manufacturers reported a rebound in sentiment in April, according to the latest Reuters Tankan survey, but the outlook for the next quarter has turned gloomy amid rising concerns over U.S. tariffs. The manufacturers’ index rose to +9 from -1 in March, indicating more optimism than pessimism. However, sentiment is expected to

Crude oil little changed in trading today for the second consecutive day Preview: The market is evenly split on a Bank of Canada rate cut on Wednesday White House says some trade deals to be announced ‘very soon’ Amazon is concerned about 3rd party sellers due to tariffs European indices close higher. German Dax shares

China economic growth data is mixed: +1.2% q/q is disappointing expected +1.4%, prior +1.6% +5.4% y/y is a beat expected +5.1%, prior +5.4% Out at the same were ‘activity data’ for March 2025, with some very strong results indeed. China Industrial Output March 2025 surges to +7.7% y/y (expected 5.8%, prior +5.9%) This article was

As for 2026, ANZ sees the Chinese economy expanding by 4.3% – down from their previous projection of 4.5%. Despite the downgrade, the 4.2% growth projection is still on the higher side. UBS is expecting a figure of 3.4% and Goldman Sachs 4.0%. This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

China stats bureau deputy head: Protectionism is rapidly rising globally, world economic order has been severely damaged Resolutely opposes US tariffs which are against economic rules, WTO rules High US tariffs will bring about some pressures on China’s trade and economy US tariffs will not change the long-term improving trend in China’s economy China has

US government has indefinitely banned Nvidia from selling H20 chips to China US chip equipment makers calculate Trump tariffs could cost them more than US$1bn a year S&P 500 futures are down 0.9% and Nasdaq futures down 1.6% as we come to terms with the headline above. US-China tensions continue to boil and that remains

Japan data: February Core Machinery Orders +1.5% y/y (expected -0.9%, prior +4.4%) +4.3% m/m (expected +1.2%, prior -3.5% This is encouraging data. The caveat is, of course, that its for February, before the Trump tariffs hit the fan. — The core machinery orders data is a highly volatile series its used as a leading indicator

Learn Investing: Why Tariffs Matter to Your Portfolio — Even If You Don’t Trade International Stocks Because even local investors feel the shock when global policy hits home. If you’re a new investor who doesn’t trade Chinese tech stocks, global ETFs, or emerging markets, you might think trade policy and tariffs aren’t really your problem.

Tesla’s plans to ship components for its Cybercab and Semi electric trucks from China to the U.S. have been suspended due to escalating tariffs imposed by Trump. This disruption could delay Tesla’s ambitious production timeline for these new models, which were critical to the company’s growth strategy. In summary: Trump’s tariffs on Chinese goods have

Via oilprice.com, headline build, product draws: — Expectations I had seen centred on: Headline crude +0.5mn barrels Distillates -1.2 mn bbls Gasoline -1.6 mn This data point is from a privately-conducted survey by the American Petroleum Institute (API). It’s a survey of oil storage facilities and companies The official report is due Wednesday morning US

Bank of Japan Governor Ueda sounding like the prospect of another BoJ rate hike is receding: May need policy response but will decide appropriately in line with changing developments, when asked about BOJ response if U.S. tariff policy puts downward pressure on Japan’s economy Will scrutinise without any pre-conception impact of U.S. tariff policy on

The price of WTI crude oil is settling lower by -$0.20 at $61.33. The current price is trading a little higher at $61.44. Yesterday, the price settled near unchanged and today the same is also true. The high price today reached $62.06. The low price was at $60.88. At session highs, the price tested its

Q1 2025 economic growth data from China is expected to have slowed from Q4 2024. As the trade war bits it’ll probably slow even further. UBS have a dour outlook: UBS has cut its China GDP growth forecast to 3.4% for 2025 The headline March data is expected to be stable apart from a small

Trump speaking from the White House, via Fox – comments on his tariff pause: was because it’s a transition came from need for flexibility may want countries to choose between US or China We all know why the pause. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

The NZDUSD has made a significant technical move today, climbing above the 200-day moving average for the first time since October 9, 2024. This long-term moving average, currently sitting at 0.5888, had held resistance on a couple of tests yesterday before breaking above the in the Asian Pacific session today: Earlier today, price surged above

More than 15 trade deal proposals are being actively considered We believe that we can announce some very soon The President has not made a determination on raising the corporate tax rate The top thing I’m watching for in trade deals when they are announced is whether or not the US will drop the 10%

The S&P 500 is at the lows of the day, down 10 points or 0.2%, to 5397. The index has tried to rally several times but has carved out a series of lower highs over the two trading days this week. That’s a red flag headed into the final hours of trading. Yesterday’s low of

The Bank of Canada has signalled it will ‘proceed carefully’ on further rate cuts but that was before the big US ‘Liberation Day’ risks to global growth and the recent drop in oil prices. The swift re-ordering has left the market off-balance about what the Bank of Canada might do at Wednesday’s meeting. At the

In the European session, the highlight was the UK employment report. The data was mixed but it didn’t change anything for the BoE anyway. All the data in April is old news and will be mostly ignored by the market. The only thing I can see having an impact is a surge in US Jobless

Japanese automaker Nissan is to cut domestic production of its top-selling US model, the Rogue SUV, during the period of May to July this year. Nissan is said to be altering its manufacturing plans in response to US tariffs and will reduce production of the Rogue SUV by 13,000 vehicles at its plant in Kyushu

Learn Option Pricing: Understanding Intrinsic and Extrinsic Value in Options Trading 101 Welcome to the second installment in our Learn Options Series, a professional and accessible guide designed to enhance your stock options education. In this article, we dive into one of the most essential components of options trading: how options are priced. Mastering this

In online trading, speed is king. Below, the experts at Octa, a regulated and trusted broker since 2011, break down the aspects of trading where speed matters most and offer an accessible way to accelerate your trading progress. The modern world revolves around speed and solutions that solve problems faster than their predecessors. Speed advantage

The EURUSD extended modestly to a new session low as EU officials indicated that tariffs are likely to stay in place amid limited progress in trade talks with the U.S. The pair reached a low of 1.12849, but remained above a key support zone between 1.12709 and 1.1275. On the daily chart, this area holds

The European equity indices closed higher on the day. For the German Dax it rose despite weaker than expected German Dax indices. The ZEW Economic Sentiment Index for Germany fell sharply to -14.0 in April, down from 51.6 in March and well below the market expectation of 9.5. This marks a significant deterioration in forward-looking

Today’s labour market report for the UK – released by the Office for National Statistics (ONS) – has the Bank of England (BoE) caught between a rock and a hard place. Wage pressures remain elevated and job figures appear to be starting to feel the impact of US President Donald Trump’s tariff plans, as well

Amazon has reached out to its third-party sellers to better understand how the recent U.S. tariffs—particularly those targeting Chinese imports—are affecting their operations. Over 60% of Amazon’s sales come from third-party sellers, many of whom source products from China. Sellers are feeling the pinch despite some exemptions on tech goods under the 145% Trump-era tariffs.

China’s Premiur Li: Currently, external situations have drastically changed What are the interest rates expectations for G8FX? Watch out for the first trade deals to lead the market expectations Eurozone February industrial production +1.1% vs +0.3% m/m expected Germany April ZEW survey current conditions -81.2 vs -86.8 expected Federal Reserve Governor Waller’s strategy for dealing

Sector Overview The US stock market today is a dynamic tableau of mixed signals, with varying performances across sectors. The energy sector is leading the pack, showcasing remarkable green as dominant players like Exxon Mobil (XOM) and Chevron (CVX) post impressive gains of 1.29% and 0.30%, respectively. On the other hand, the consumer cyclicals and

Currently, external situations have drastically changed. Urges for Chinese foreign trade companies to diversify markets. Urges companies to strive to stabilise foreign trade. There is relatively big room for China’s property market development. Will make greater efforts in stabilising employment, people’s income. Will calmly deal with difficulties and challenges from external shocks. Will make greater

Prior -87.6 Economic sentiment -14.0 vs 9.5 expected Prior 51.6 That’s a massive plunge in the outlook/expectations index as US tariffs weigh heavily on German economic sentiment here. ZEW notes that the “erratic changes in US trade policy” is the main cause for the drag with “reciprocal tariffs to have consequences on global trade alongside

Canadian housing starts fell to an annualized rate of 214.2K in March compared to 242.5K expected. That continues an ongoing slide form 267.3K in November and is like to extend further as the Toronto condo boom goes bust. The March reading is an 11.6% decline from a year ago with Vancouver starts down 59% and

The USDCAD is attempting to stage a recovery after posting a new low yesterday at 1.38278—the lowest level since November 2024. The bounce higher has taken the pair back up to test the 100-hour moving average, currently at 1.3952. This level represents the first major technical hurdle for buyers. A sustained move above the 100-hour

Yesterday I wrote about a forecast for a plunge in US port volumes that would start to hit in May and now Vizion is out with some real-time data showing that ocean bookings for US imports crashed in the week after ‘Liberation Day’ compared to the week before. In general, a shipment from Shanghai to

Reserve Bank of Australia March 31/April 1 meeting minutes (full text). Not yet possible to determine timing of next move in rates Not appropriate at this stage for policy to react to potential risks May meeting would be opportune time to reconsider, decision was not predetermined Possible that global uncertainty over U.S. tariffs could have

Yesterday’s slide in 30-year yields helped to calm market nerves but the improvement stalled today after they fell as low as 4.76%. Since then, they have turned higher to touch 4.84%. I don’t think the market will be too fussed so long as they stay below 4.90% but it’s something to keep an eye on.

Prior was +0.4% (revised to +0.2%) Export prices m/m +0.0% vs +0.0% expected Prior was +0.1% (revised to +0.5%) Import prices y/y +0.9% vs +2.0% prior Export prices y/y +2.4% vs +2.1% prior Lower prices for fuel imports more than offset higher prices for nonfuel imports in March. This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta

The euro has fallen on this headline. This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

The AUDUSD has been on a strong run higher and is now pressing up against a critical resistance zone defined by multiple technical barriers. The pair is currently testing the double top highs near 0.6390, last seen in March and early April, and edging closer to the 2025 high of 0.6407. This area presents a

Ex BOJ official says Bank to hold, not hike: “will be in a wait-and-see mode for a while” Goldman Sachs are wary of 500K of US job losses due to tariffs UBS has cut its China GDP growth forecast to 3.4% for 2025 Survey of firms shows efforts to revive U.S. manufacturing through tariffs may

The world is facing a dollar confidence crisis as the repercussions of “Liberation Day” continue to reverberate, Deutsche Bank says. The German bank is out with its latest forecasts for the US economy and is increasingly tilting towards a stagflationary scenario. 2025 US growth forecast cut to 0.9% (q4/q4), hit by tariffs, policy uncertainty and

Learn Investing: How Higher Prices and Stagflation Hit Bank Stocks Because when households feel squeezed, banks start feeling it too. If you’ve been watching inflation stay stubbornly high, you might assume it’s mostly a consumer problem—groceries cost more, energy bills climb, and vacations get shelved. But what happens after that? Well, when households start feeling

U.S. Secretary of Commerce initiated an investigation to determine the effects on the national security of imports of pharmaceuticals and pharmaceutical ingredients U.S. Secretary of Commerce initiated Section 232 national security investigation of imports of semiconductors and semiconductor manufacturing equipment — For those in the US reliant on pharma to help with their health, go

The kiwi has been quietly an outperformer in the past week, even against the likes of the euro and yen. In the case of NZD/USD, the dollar’s struggles is only compounding the upside move over the last few days. And that is leading to potentially a key technical break as seen above. The pair had

The news media are reporting that JD Vance said that “the US is likely to seal an economic agreement with the UK that benefits both nations. He also added that with the UK, they have a much more reciprocal relationship than they have with Germany for example”. So, it’s logical to seal a deal with

Prior 4.4% Employment change 206k vs 170k expected Prior 144k Average weekly earnings +5.6% vs +5.7% 3m/y expected Prior +5.8%; revised to +5.6% Average weekly earnings (ex bonus) +5/0% vs +6.0% 3m/y expected Prior +5.9%; revised to +5.8% March payrolls change -78k Prior 21k; revised to -8k There’s not too much to scrutinise from the

Consumer spending hasn’t slowed yet, but I use the word ‘yet’ because it could with job losses Consumer spending consistent with 2% growth I worry that trade war could be more concerning if it shifts to services We should be highly interested in making sure the US can export services Deposits have performed better than

People’s Bank of China USD/CNY reference rate is due around 0115 GMT. The People’s Bank of China (PBOC), China’s central bank, is responsible for setting the daily midpoint of the yuan (also known as renminbi or RMB). The PBOC follows a managed floating exchange rate system that allows the value of the yuan to fluctuate

Rate cuts by year-end Fed: 83 bps (80% probability of no change at the upcoming meeting) ECB: 80 bps (99% probability of rate cut at the upcoming meeting) BoE: 78 bps (90% probability of rate cut at the upcoming meeting) BoC: 44 bps (60% probability of no change at the upcoming meeting) RBA: 120 bps

The USDCHF extended its decline last week, breaking to fresh lows not seen since 2011. In doing so, the pair decisively moved below a major multi-year floor between 0.8333 and 0.8373—a zone that previously marked key lows in 2015, 2023, and 2024. The break triggered accelerated selling pressure, pushing the price to a low of

The Bank of Korea is expected to keep its benchmark interest rate steady at 2.75% at its April 17 meeting, according to a Reuters poll of economists. Of the 37 surveyed, 24 anticipate no change, while 13 foresee a 25 basis point cut. This would mark the second pause since the central bank began easing

UBS has cut its China GDP growth forecast to 3.4% for 2025 Downgraded on assuming current tariff hikes will remain and China rolls out additional stimulus UBS say the forecast comes with high margins of error more to come This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

Prior month 2.6% CPI m/m +0.3% versus +0.6% expected. Prior month +1.1% Core CPI m/m +0.1% versus +0.7% last month Core CPI y/y +2.2% versus 2.7% last month CPI Median y/y 2.9% versus 3.0% estimate. Last month 2.9% CPI Trim 2.8% versus 3.0% expected Last month 2.9% CPI Common 2.3% versus 2.5% last month Full

Adam has the info on demand destruction posted on Monday here, ICYMI: OPEC lowers its demand growth forecast this year I posted a while back on the despair in the US fossil fuel sector: administration’s chaos is a disaster for the commodity markets. “Drill, baby, drill” is nothing short of a myth and populist rallying

All necessary permits will be expedited to Nvidia. As they will to all companies committing to be part of the Golden Age of America. Trump: “Nvidia commits 500 billion dollars to build AI supercomputers, plus, in the United States, exclusively. This is very big and exciting news. All necessary permits will be expedited and quickly

The USDCAD broke below its 200-day moving average for the first time since October 2024 last week. That key technical level, currently at 1.3999 (effectively 1.4000), marked a significant shift in bias when breached. The move lower drove the pair into a familiar swing area between 1.3843 and 1.3898 (rounded to 1.3900), which has been

Learn Options 101: Your Introduction to Stock Options Education & Options Trading 101 Welcome to the first article in our comprehensive ‘Learn Options’ Series designed for beginners and experienced traders alike. This guide aims to demystify options trading, beginning with foundational concepts and straightforward examples to make this complex topic approachable for everyone. Brand Transition

Prior +0.8% HICP +0.9% vs +0.9% y/y prelim Prior +0.9% Core annual inflation is also seen steady at 1.3%, the same as in February. So, this is one spot that the ECB can take heart in. And at the balance, France is not going to take as big of a hit from US tariffs; all

The BofA FMS Survey refers to Bank of America’s Fund Manager Survey which is a widely followed monthly report that captures the views and positions of global fund managers on key market topics. Here’s the latest findings: Net 61% expect the Dollar to deprecitate in the next 12 months Allocation to US equities falls 53%

I spoke with BNNBloomberg yesterday about the weakness in the US dollar so far this year and what’s driving it. I highlighted six main points that I also wrote about yesterday. Tariff troubles sparking supply chain fears beyond simple inflation math, with markets nervous about potential cascading disruptions similar to COVID experience Growth agenda taking

Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia President Harker speaks on “The Role of the Federal Reserve” before the Villanova School of Business Speaker Series. Nothing from him on current economic nor policy. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

Learn Basic Options Strategies: Covered Calls, Cash-Secured Puts & Buying Options with Confidence Welcome to the third installment in your stock options education journey. In this article, we explore basic options strategies that are essential to building a strong foundation in options trading. If you’re serious about learning options and progressing beyond theory, this is

Prior month -20.00 For the full report CLICK HERE Empire manufacturing index for April from the New York Fed -8.10 versus -14.50 estimate. New orders -8.8 versus -14.9 last month Prices Paid 50.8 versus 44.9 last month. Prices received 28.7 versus 22.4 Shipments -2.9 versus -8.5 last month Employment -2.6 versus -4.1 last month average

The US stock market is little changed. The US yields are higher by about 3-4 basis points after falling by 10 or so basis points yesterday (last week yields did move sharply higher). For the US the dollar is mixed vs the major currencies – the EUR, JPY and GBP. For the EURUSD the price

Reserve Bank of New Zealand chief economist Conway: higher tariffs and uncertainty about global trade policy mean economic activity globally and in New Zealand will most likely be weaker than expected The likely impacts on inflation in New Zealand are more ambiguous, but the balance of risks has shifted to the downside This article was

There are a couple of large ones for USD/JPY but I wouldn’t expect any to factor much into play. As things stand, trading sentiment continues to be driven by the broader market mood and also subject to headline risks. The mood music so far this week is exuding a slight calmer tone compared to last

The GBPUSD trading and 1.3194. That’s within six pips of the high for the day at 1.3200. The high price for the year is also being approached. That level came in at 1.32067 reached on April 3. Move above that level and a swing area between 1.3221 to 1.3245 would be targeted. Conversely, staying below

Prior +0.8%; revised to +0.6% That’s a stronger reading than expected with the jump largely coming from a rise in output for capital goods (+0.8%) and non-durable consumer goods (+2.8%). There was also an increase in production for intermediate goods (+0.3%), offset slightly by declines in energy production (-0.2%) and production for durable consumer goods

Bloomberg with a piece citing an ex-BOJ official. The Bank of Japan is likely to hold off on further rate hikes for now amid growing uncertainty from U.S. trade policy, according to former BOJ executive director Kenzo Yamamoto. Speaking ahead of U.S.-Japan trade talks, Yamamoto said, “They will be in a wait-and-see mode for a

Goldman Sachs sought out academic studies on how tariffs impact: The broader statistical evidence points to negative net employment effects. While the range of estimates is wide, academic studies generally find that a 1Opp increase in tariff rates raises employment in protected industries by 0.2-0.4% but that each 1pp increase in tariff-driven costs lowers employment

Learn Investing: Why the Bond Market Predicts Recessions Before Anyone Else Because the smartest part of the market often whispers — but it pays to listen. If you’ve ever heard someone say the bond market is “flashing red” or that the “yield curve just inverted,” and you nodded but weren’t entirely sure what they meant…

2025 world oil demand growth forecast cut to 730k bpd (previously 1.03 mil bpd) 2026 world oil demand growth forecast seen at 690k bpd At the same time, the agency is also seeing weaker supply with the forecast for the year being at 1.2 mil bpd (down by 260k bpd) due to a decrease in

Yesterday, Federal Reserve Board Governor Christopher Waller delivered a speech on the economic outlook at the Certified Financial Analysts Society of St.Louis. Waller has been a key Fed governor because he’s been a “leading indicator” for changes and signals in Fed’s policy. He was the first to talk about QT back in 2021 and the

Senior BOJ official: Markets, particularly U.S. stocks, long-term interest rates, making volatile moves due in part to U.S. tariff policy Unlike during global financial crisis, we are not seeing sharp shrinkage of liquidity BOJ will continue to scrutinise market developments and their impact on Japan, overseas economies This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at

Jeton has been included in the Financial Times’ 2025 FT1000-hyperlink list of Europe’s fastest-growing companies for the second consecutive year, marking another key achievement in the company’s ongoing growth. Last year, Jeton ranked in the top 10% of the fastest-growing companies, and this year, it continues to demonstrate its growth trajectory. The company ranked 374

Fundamental Overview As the stock markets around the world bottomed, the pressure on gold eventually waned and the precious metal rallied strongly into new all-time highs. The rally has been aggressive as everyone rushed into gold as protection from potential stagflation due to trade wars. The problem is that “long gold” is now the most

Eurostoxx +0.3% Germany DAX +0.9% France CAC -0.3% UK FTSE +0.4% Spain IBEX +0.6% Italy FTSE MIB +0.6% The French benchmark index is the laggard as luxury stocks are down, following LVHM’s poor Q1 earnings after the close yesterday. The threat of further trade conflict globally isn’t going to help with the outlook on that.

S&P 500 Futures Analysis for Today – tradeCompass (April 15, 2025) Current Price at the Time of This Analysis: 5,436.5 Instrument: S&P 500 E-mini Futures (ES) Methodology: tradeCompass – Key Levels & Trade Zones using VWAP, Value Area, and Volume Profile. Bias and Thresholds Bullish Threshold: 5,433.0 Price is currently above this level, so bias

Prior +0.6% Wholesale price index +1.3% y/y Prior +1.6% After the jump in February, wholesale prices moderated a little in March at least. That said, the overall index is still on the high side as it sits at 117.9 and that matches up with the annual average seen in 2023. The annual average last year

Police in Harbin, northeastern China, announced on Tuesday that they are seeking three U.S. National Security Agency operatives suspected of conducting cyberattacks on the city during February’s Asian Winter Games. According to the Harbin public security bureau, the individuals were linked to the NSA’s Office of Tailored Access Operations, which allegedly targeted critical IT infrastructure

We will trade with more friends and become a stronger magnet for investment Facing external uncertainty, will stay committed to joining hands rather than throwing punches This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

It is said that China has ordered its airlines to stop any further delivers of Boeing jets as trade tensions continue with the US for the time being. It doesn’t just stop there though. Beijing has also called for Chinese carriers to also halt any purchases of aircraft-related equipment and parts from US firms as

German DAX futures +0.1% French CAC 40 futures -0.6% UK FTSE futures +0.1% This comes with US futures also holding more cautious, with S&P 500 futures now down 0.16% on the day. Despite some added calm in the bond market, the coast isn’t clear yet as now we’re pretty much catching a slight breather. The

Deutsche Bank now expects the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates by 25 basis points in December, reversing its earlier projection that there would be no rate cuts at all in 2025: then another two cuts of 25 basis points in Q1 2026 terminal rate 3.5%-3.75% Nearer term, this week DB say: “Powell’s speech will

The New Zealand Food Price Index (FPI) is a measure of the changes in the average price of food items sold in New Zealand. For the y/y, +3.5% prior +2.4% *** The New Zealand Food Price Index (FPI) is a measure of the changes in the average price of food items sold in New Zealand.

Investing in Uncertainty — Why Volatility Isn’t Always an Opportunity for Long-Term Investors A practical guide for young and long-term investors navigating a chaotic market environment with noisy headlines, policy shifts, and price swings. “Volatility is great for traders — but most investors are not traders. And that’s okay.” The Current Mood: Noise, Uncertainty, and

Trump tariffs unlikely to bring manufacturing back to U.S., CNBC survey shows. Efforts to revive U.S. manufacturing through tariffs may backfire, with most companies saying the high cost of reshoring would keep production overseas, according to a new CNBC Supply Chain survey. Nearly half of the firms surveyed said bringing manufacturing back to the U.S.

This according to Kyodo News. This will definitely be an interesting one to watch out for when it happens. But unless Trump is also involved in the meeting, I reckon it might not lead to much. The meeting is expected to take place in Washington. This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

This will at least be one spot to feed into a calmer mood in broader markets for now. Long-end Treasuries are seeing some bids again, with yields backing away from the highs seen last week. 30-year yields are now down to 4.77%, falling a little further away from the 5% mark. Meanwhile, 10-year yields are

The US has begun its investigation ahead of pharmaceutical tariffs Major US indices are closing the day with gains to start the trading week Crude oil futures settled $61.53 Six reasons why the US dollar is struggling (and will continue to) Fed Waller: New tariff policy one of the biggest shocks to affect US economy

British consumer spending showed modest growth in March. There do seem to be signs of strain beginning to emerge beneath the surface. British Retail Consortium (BRC) data: total retail sales rose 1.1% year-on-year in March, matching February’s pace like-for-like sales also held steady at 0.9% BRC chief executive Helen Dickinson highlighted the resilience of both

Learn Investing: What Investors Should Watch During Recession Risk Because understanding a slowdown doesn’t mean slowing down your financial goals. If you’ve been watching financial headlines—or just feeling like everything is a bit more expensive lately—you might’ve picked up on a growing concern: Are we heading for a recession? You’re not imagining it. Former Treasury

U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said the White House will begin interviewing candidates this autumn to succeed Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell, whose term ends in May 2026. The timeline would give the Trump administration around six months to prepare for the transition. Speaking in an interview with Bloomberg TV said there’s room for more

Reserve Bank of New Zealand Chief Economist Conway: Hopefully what President Trump put out on tariffs before the pause is worst case scenario Earlier: RBNZ chief economist Conway says balance of risks has shifted to the downside This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

The People’s Bank of China (PBOC), China’s central bank, is responsible for setting the daily midpoint of the yuan (also known as renminbi or RMB). The PBOC follows a managed floating exchange rate system that allows the value of the yuan to fluctuate within a certain range, called a “band,” around a central reference rate,

Via Bloomberg: Morgan Stanley and Citigroup Inc. slashed their estimates for 2025 earnings joining a wave of Wall Street banks warning that tariffs will curb profit growth Citi’s lowered 2025 prediction for the S&P 500 to 5,800 from 6,500 predicated on earnings of $255 a share for companies in the index, down from a previous

The Reserve Bank of Australia minutes are for the meeting earlier this month when the Bank left its cash rate unchanged. From the day: RBA leaves its cash rate unchanged at 4.10%, as expected RBA holds steady, keeps cautious tone as inflation remains in focus. AUDUSD consolidates. Governor Bullock spoke last week: RBA governor Bullock:

Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta President Raphael Bostic speaking on monetary policy in a moderated conversation hosted by Emory University, in Atlanta, Ga: Right now range of possible outcomes has multiplied Boundaries of what I thought could be possible have been blown up Labor market is effectively at full employment Says inflation still much higher

Goldman Sachs CEO David Solomon spoke to analysts on Monday (US time) after releasing first quarter results: prospect of a recession “has increased” Solomon cited: the uncertainties of a trade war firms unsure about how to plan for the future “we are entering the second quarter with a markedly different operating environment than earlier this

Japan finance minister Kato Planning to attend spring meetings of IMF, World Bank in Washington Forex rates should be determined by markets Excessive volatility would negatively affect economic and financial stability Have agreed with Bessent to closely communicate on forex Closely monitoring financial markets as they have been unstable recently Kato gets a bit of

The major indices are closing the day with gains to start the new trading week. However shares are closing near the middle of their up and down trading range. At the end of the day,: Dow industrial average rose 312.0 points or 0.78% at 40524.79 S&P index +42.61 points or 0.79% at 5405.97. NASDAQ index

Good morning, afternoon and evening all. Any charts, technical analysis, trade ideas, thoughts, views, ForexLive traders would like to share and discuss with fellow ForexLive traders, please do so: This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

Comments from Bessent: Trump, China’s Xi have very good relationship Xi has not called Trump, this is absurd b/s from Bessent. Now onto some of his more reasonable comments, open for dispute but not necessarily intentionally deceptive like that one above. Tariffs on China are big numbers, no one thinks they’re sustainable and wants them

Crude oil prices saw a volatile session, swinging between gains and losses. After opening near $61.45, the price climbed to a high of $62.68 before falling to a low of $60.59. It ultimately settled at $61.53 — close to both the day’s opening level and Friday’s closing price. Looking at the hourly chart, the price

The story of the Trump administration so far is US dollar weakness. Policymaking has been chaotic but when you talk with people in markets they highlight three fears: Below-trend US growth Higher US inflation Declining productivity/dynamism These are classic characteristics of an underperforming economy but it’s also a 180-degree turn from what markets were expecting

Rightmove UK property report for April 2025 UK asking prices rose 1.3% year-on-year in early April, despite the end of a temporary tax break. Average asking price hit a record £377,182, up 1.4% from the previous month—stronger than typical seasonal trends. Buyer and seller activity increased, with more listings and house-hunters entering the market. Rightmove

Chinese stock exchanges have quietly imposed daily limits on net share sales by hedge funds and large retail investors, according to four sources says Reuters, as authorities move to stabilise markets amid an escalating trade war with the U.S. The soft cap—set at 50 million yuan (approx. $6.8 million) per investor per day—is being enforced

The EURUSD surged to its highest level since February 2022 on Friday, reaching a peak of 1.1473. That high came up just short of the key resistance zone between 1.1482 and 1.1516—a swing area that capped gains in early 2022. After failing to break that ceiling, the pair rotated lower, finding support at a critical

There are no major expiries on the chopping block to start the new week. In any case, trading sentiment will continue to rely on the same factors in play since last week. Headline risk and the broader market mood remains the two key drivers, more so than anything else at the moment. For the time

Leaders of China and Vietnam should exchange visits frequently like relatives Xi urges both countries to jointly tackle online gambling, telecom fraud and other cross-border crimes China and Vietnam signed 45 bilateral cooperation documents Documents cover AI, customes inspection, agriculture, culture and connectivity Proposes 6 measures to deepen building of China-Vietnam community One of the

The AUDUSD is once again flirting with its 100-day moving average, currently near 0.62917, and the risk is that history repeats. The last two breaks above this key technical level failed to hold, both stalling at 0.6390 before rotating back lower. Today’s attempt showed even less momentum, with the high reaching just 0.6340 before sellers

New tariff policy is one of the biggest economic shocks in decades March PCE 12-month inflation likely 2.3%; core PCE likely 2.7% In Q1: Economy grew modestly Labor market remained solid Inflation was too high but showing slow improvement Monetary policy is meaningfully restricting economic activity Hopes underlying inflation will continue to moderate Inflation expectations

Sector Overview Today’s stock market heatmap reveals a robust performance across multiple sectors, with technology leading the way. Key players in the tech space, such as Apple (AAPL) and Google (GOOG), are posting notable gains, with Apple surging 3.44% and Google up 2.44%. Meanwhile, the energy and healthcare sectors also show positive momentum, underlining a

Pres. Trump is speaking and says: Will do Tarasov imported pharmaceuticals Says they do not make their own drugs Looking to help car companies They will solve Iran problem, Iran wants to do deal with us but they do not know how There may be some things coming up: I spoke to Apple CEO Tim

The USDCAD broke below its 200-day moving average last Friday—a key technical development that marked the first sustained move under that level since October 7, 2024. The bearish break sparked increased downside momentum, driving the pair through multiple support zones. Most notably, the price fell below the 61.8% retracement of the rally from the September

Trump is out with a message on Truth Social about the Ukraine war. Peace and ceasefire negotiations have brought little progress and there is talk about a Russian spring offensive. I wouldn’t take this as a sign of optimism but he’s still talking about ending it: “The War between Russia and Ukraine is Biden’s war,

The USD is lower to start the new trading week as the market continue to be whipped around by on again/off again tariffs. The video above will look at the 3 major currency pairs from a technical perspective and outline the bias, risk and target levels for today and going foward. Last week the Trump

Trump will announce tariff rate for semiconductors over the next week Asked about tariffs on iPhones, says that will be announced soon but there has to be some flexibility more to come This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

Gold Futures Analysis for Today – tradeCompass (April 14, 2025) Current Price: 3,249.2 Instrument: Gold Futures (GC) Methodology: Trade Compass – Key Levels & Trade Zones using VWAP, Value Area, and Volume Profile. Bias and Thresholds Bearish Threshold: 3,252.0 Any price action below this level favors the bears. A rejection near this level (especially if

It wasn’t long ago—back on March 26—that copper surged to a new all-time high of $5.37 (see post here). Since that peak, however, the price has come under heavy pressure, falling by -25% and bottoming at $4.03 on April 6. A modest bounce followed, but a subsequent attempt to retest the lows stalled at $4.06.

The NASDAQ index gap higher and in doing so gapped above its 100 hour moving average (blue line on the chart above). The high price extended to 17136.55. That was short of the high price from last Wednesday at 17202. It was also short of a swing level at 17238.24 and the falling 200 hour

Prior was +1.2% Sales increased in two of the seven subsectors Inventories +2.2% with all seven subsectors up Inventory-to-sales ratio 1.50 vs 1.53 prior The largest increase came from the machinery, equipment and supplies subsector (+7.1%). The motor vehicle and motor vehicle parts and accessories subsector (-3.1% to $14.3 billion) posted the largest decrease. Companies

Domestic sight deposits CHF 438.4 bn vs CHF 433.4 bn prior This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

The market went into the weekend with considerable optimism about progress between China and the USA but what unfolded was: A dropping of tariffs on everyone regarding electronics A White House reminder that 20% fentanyl tariffs remained on Chinese electronics Lutnick saying that electronics (and other) tariffs were still coming soon Trump confirming what Lutnick

Why Bonds Still Belong in Your Portfolio (Even When Interest Rates Are Climbing) If you’ve been watching the news lately (or even glancing at your financial app), you’ve probably noticed something interesting: interest rates have risen quite a bit. And that has a lot of investors wondering—do bonds still make sense, or have they suddenly

USD/JPY is in the middle of a nice turnaround after it held support at 142.00 in four separate dips in the past two trading days. The pair got as low as 142.24 in Asia and tested that again in early Europe but it’s surged since and is now trading above 144.00. Most of those gains

Bank of Japan Governor Ueda: Global, Japanese economic uncertainty has increased significantly due to US tariff policy US tariff policy likely to put downward pressure on global, Japanese economies through various channels US tariffs likely to exert both upside, downside pressure on prices Impact on Japan’s economy will also depend largely on upcoming developments in

The week will start off slowly in terms of scheduled economic events, but markets will remain alert to any unexpected announcements from the U.S. administration, particularly regarding potential retaliatory tariffs. On Tuesday, the U.K. will release the claimant count change, the average earnings index 3m/y, and the unemployment rate. In Canada, attention will turn to

If you take a look at the markets, you will notice that they pretty much haven’t moved. That’s probably because everyone is waiting for the Trump’s update on semiconductor tariffs. The decision on Friday to exempt electronic devices like smartphones, laptops and so on from tariffs turned out to be a temporary measure and those

As a reminder, he will be busy visiting Vietnam, Malaysia, and Cambodia from 14 to 18 April. That is indirectly saying that the ball is over to Trump’s side of the court as Xi will keep doing his own thing in the meantime. And so, the game of chicken continues with both sides still engaged

UPCOMING EVENTS: Monday: New Zealand Services PMI, NY Fed Consumer Inflation Expectations. Tuesday: RBA Meeting Minutes, UK Employment Report, German ZEW, Canada CPI. Wednesday: Japan Tankan, China Industrial Production and Retail Sales, UK CPI, US Retail Sales, US Industrial Production and Capacity Utilisation, BoC Policy Announcement, US NAHB Housing Market Index, Fed Chair Powell. Thursday:

China March dollar-denominated exports +12.4% y/y expected +4.4%, prior +2.3% China March dollar-denominated imports -4.3% y/y expected -2%, prior -8.4% China March trade balance $+102.64 billion China Jan–Mar dollar-denominated exports +5.8% y/y, imports -7.0% y/y China Jan–Mar dollar-denominated exports +5.8% y/y China Jan–Mar dollar-denominated imports -7.0% y/y China Jan–Mar trade balance $+272.97 billion This article

Bond Ratings: What They Mean for Investors and Why They Matter If you’re just starting out as an investor, bonds might seem straightforward—but understanding how bonds are rated can help you avoid unnecessary risk and make smarter investing decisions. This article covers what bond ratings are, why they matter to you, and how ratings relate

Oil is green today, which has been a rare occurrence in April. WTI crude oil is up 83-cents to $62.33 as broad sentiment improves on hopes for a phone call between Trump and Xi. OPEC hasn’t wasted any time downgrading its economic view today as it cut its demand growth forecast to +1.3 million barrels

As is usual for a Monday morning, market liquidity is very thin until it improves as more Asian centres come online … prices are liable to swing around, so take care out there. Indicative rates, a little change from late Friday: EUR/USD 1.1294 USD/JPY 144.08 ….. GBP/USD 1.3066 USD/CHF 0.8216 USD/CAD 1.3867 AUD/USD 0.6312 NZD/USD

People’s Bank of China USD/CNY reference rate is due around 0115 GMT. The People’s Bank of China (PBOC), China’s central bank, is responsible for setting the daily midpoint of the yuan (also known as renminbi or RMB). The PBOC follows a managed floating exchange rate system that allows the value of the yuan to fluctuate

These are the US’ closest allies, so you’d expect things to progress a little quicker compared to others. Also, the fact that they’re willing to compromise more I guess. Japan will be speaking with the US later this week as noted here previously. This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

This survey was done before ‘Liberation Day’ 3-year inflation unchanged at 3% 5-year inflation down to 2.9% from 3.0% Households more pessimistic about jobs and future earnings Found accelerating food and rent expected Households more downbeat on finances and credit access Share of households seeing worse financial situation highest since Oct 2023 Expectations for stocks

It’s going to be a boring day in terms of data releases as we don’t have anything on the agenda other than the NY Fed Inflation Expectations survey. Since the UMich survey gets trashed because of the political bias, we’ll see if long term inflation expectations are increasing in this survey as well. Anyway, the

100% not expecting recession Rare earth limits being studied very carefully There are the usual talking points here but it’s tough to take anything seriously from Trump’s deputies as he seemingly changes his mind constantly. This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

The USDCHF broke to its lowest level since 2011 last week, falling beneath a critical long-term support zone between 0.8333 and 0.8373. This multi-year floor had held through several tests over the past decade+, but once it gave way, sellers took control and drove the pair down to a low of 0.8098 before some buying

Trading success often depends on whether or not one can pinpoint potentially profitable assets before sharp price movement. This is particularly evident in crypto, where high volatility is the norm. Technical analysis—analysis is of historical price action and chart patterns—is one of the main methods to predict price direction. Candlestick analysis, a part of technical

China’s Ministry of Commerce responded on Sunday to the Trump administration’s move to exempt certain high-tech products—such as smartphones and computers—from steep reciprocal tariffs, calling it a limited but positive gesture. The ministry said the exemption “represents a small step by the U.S. in correcting its erroneous unilateral approach,” referring to President Trump’s earlier imposition

Xi Jinping calls for deeper China-Vietnam cooperation in industrial and supply chains. Urges expanded collaboration in emerging sectors like 5G, AI, and green development. Begins Southeast Asia tour with a state visit to Vietnam (April 14–15). Promotes regional initiatives like East Asia Cooperation and Lancang-Mekong Cooperation. Xi says trade wars and protectionism offer no solutions,

Could US port traffic really crash this year? The latest Global Port Tracker report from the National Retail Federation and Hackett Associates is subject to whatever tariff regime rules the day but it’s a useful view on how long it will take for tariff effects to truly hit trade. The numbers show a short-term bump

The pause in reciprocal tariffs last Wednesday boosted Bitcoin and risk assets in general as growth fears eased and the market started to look forward to more de-escalation ahead. We also got some exemptions last Friday on tech which helped risk assets but Trump eventually poured cold water on positive expectations as he said that

Headlines: Dollar selling returns to start European morning trade Markets consolidate ahead of Trump’s update on semiconductor tariffs The bond market stays on edge in the new week What are the interest rates expectations for G8FX? China president Xi arrives in Hanoi China welcomes partial U.S. tariff rollback but calls it only a ‘small step’

Fundamental Overview The USD continues to lose ground against most major currencies although the fundamental backdrop remains unclear. The most popular narrative is that everyone is selling US assets, and the greenback is losing its reserve status as a consequence of the aggressive trade war. Such big claims are generally made at tops or bottoms,

Credit Spreads for Investors: Why They Matter for Investors and What Changes Can Mean for Markets When learning about investing, there are many terms that can seem confusing at first. One of those important but straightforward terms is credit spreads. Let’s break down what credit spreads are, why investors should pay attention to them, and

German DAX futures +2.0% UK FTSE futures +1.7% European equities are once again having to play catch up a little, with Wall Street gains on Friday needing to be taken into account. That comes alongside the hopeful optimism today, with S&P 500 futures seen up 1% currently. This article was written by Justin Low at

Traders unwound dollar (USD) exposure last week amid US President Donald Trump’s back-and-forth tariffs, which threaten to undermine confidence in US assets and the economy. While a 90-day tariff reprieve has been granted to most nations, the escalating trade tensions between the US and China pressure global supply chains, potentially fuelling inflationary pressures and slowing

For some context: Citi upgrades US and European equities to ‘overweight’ on tariffs pause At the same time, they are upgrading their view on Japanese equities to ‘overweight’ from ‘underweight’ and downgrading their view on emerging market equities to ‘underweight’ from ‘neutral’. This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

German Chancellor-in-waiting (set to become chancellor in May) Friedrich Merz has warned that Trump’s tariff policies could accelerate the onset of a global financial crisis. In an interview with Handelsblatt, Merz urged a new U.S.-EU free trade agreement, proposing “zero percent tariffs on everything” as a mutually beneficial solution. The EU has already floated a

Japan Prime Minister Ishiba speaking in Tokyo: says cannot make continuous compromises in US talks ASEAN is an critical part of Japan-US economic cooperation This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

Japan finmin Kato: US, Japan share view excessive FX volatility undesirable FX rate to be determined by markets Japan economy minister Akazawa: FX issues will be addressed between finance minister Kato, US Treasury Secretary Bessent A little verbal intervention supporting the yen: This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

The dollar is keeping more mixed ahead of European trading today, with the intense selling from last week cooling off slightly. USD/JPY is still seen down 0.2% to 143.23 but well off the lows of 142.25 earlier in the day. Meanwhile, EUR/USD is flat at 1.1355 currently. While not my favourite indicator of sentiment, the

Rate cuts by year-end Fed: 81 bps (76% probability of no change at the upcoming meeting) ECB: 76 bps (99% probability of rate cut at the upcoming meeting) BoE: 75 bps (93% probability of rate cut at the upcoming meeting) BoC: 40 bps (58% probability of no change at the upcoming meeting) RBA: 118 bps

A second round of nuclear talks between the U.S. and Iran is expected to take place in Rome on Saturday Axios cites two sources “with knowledge of the issue”. More: Trump administration was satisfied with the first round of talks … achieved their objective of shifting the format from indirect —handled through intermediaries — to

Singapore Q1 GDP +3.8% yr/yr vs Reuters poll +4.3% – flash estimate Singapore Q1 GDP -0.8% qtr/qtr seasonally adjusted rate – flash estimate Singapore MTI downgrades 2025 GDP growth forecast to 0.0% to +2.0% Singapore MTI says external demand outlook for Singapore for rest of the year has weakened significantly From the Monetary Authority of

Polling and comments from Citi analysts via a Reuters report: The People’s Bank of China is expected to deliver more monetary easing in the second quarter of 2025, including a 15 basis point cut to the loan prime rate (LPR) and at least a 25 basis point cut to the reserve requirement ratio (RRR), according

After the huge selloff caused by the worse than expected tariffs announcement on April 2 and the surprising production boost from OPEC+, the sentiment in the crude oil market deteriorated meaningfully. The pause in the reciprocal tariffs last Wednesday though marked a short term bottom as growth fears eased on expectations of more de-escalation ahead.

Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari warned that even modest U.S. tariffs could significantly disrupt trade, particularly for farmers. “In many sectors, whether it’s a 10% tariff or 50% or 100% tariff, it has a dramatic effect on the trade flows and so a lot of my folks that I hear from here are quite concerned,”

Earlier on Kato said Japan and the US were in agreement that excess FX volatility was not desired: Japan finance minister Kato says excess forex volatility is undesirable Kato and his US counterpart Bessent in agreement has been enough to drive bids back into the yen: This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

Goldman Sachs cut their targets for Chinese stock indexes for a second time this month 12-month target for the MSCI China Index was cut to 75 from 81 CSI 300 Index was lowered to 4,300 from 4,500 GS cite heightened trade tensions with the US: tension has soared to unprecedented levels concerns about global recession

Rain or shine, there’s no love for the dollar at the moment. The greenback continues to fall out of favour amid all the uncertainty still in play with regards to Trump’s tariffs policy. EUR/USD is now moving up by 0.5% back above 1.1400 and continues with the technical breakout to the upside from last week:

Effects of US tariffs are not yet reflected in current economic indicators The risk of a significant global slowdown has increased considerably That will also have an impact on the German economy Uncertainty about development of German exports is exceptionally high due to tariffs policy Just when you think the German economy might be turning

The People’s Bank of China (PBOC), China’s central bank, is responsible for setting the daily midpoint of the yuan (also known as renminbi or RMB). The PBOC follows a managed floating exchange rate system that allows the value of the yuan to fluctuate within a certain range, called a “band,” around a central reference rate,

U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer said on Sunday that electronic products recently exempted from President Donald Trump’s sweeping reciprocal tariffs may still be subject to new duties—just under a different framework. In an interview with CBS’ Face the Nation, Greer clarified that the exemptions reflect a strategic shift from reciprocal tariffs to national security-based measures.

Trump posting on his own social media app, Truth Social: is looking at semiconductors and the electronics supply chain as part of upcoming national security tariff investigations This is in reference to the news over the weekend of a reversal on tariffs for electronics such as smartphones, PCs etc: Trump exempts phones, computers, chips from

China Customs says it has detected salmonella in imported American poultry meats and bone meal Customs will strengthen the inspection and quarantine of imported products strictly in accordance with laws and regulations Such discoveries tend to happen t times of heightened trade tensions it seems. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

BNZ – BusinessNZ Performance of Services Index (PSI). For March was 49.1, indicating a decline in service sector activity February was 49.0 long run average is 53.0 BNZ’s Senior Economist Doug Steel: “combining together the PSI and the Performance of Manufacturing Index (PMI), the Composite Index (PCI) suggests a modest economic recovery. The extent of

This is still one of the more important spots to watch with regards to the whole trade war and tariffs saga at the moment. Yields blowing up in the past week was a key reason in prompting a U-turn from Trump on his reciprocal tariffs policy. And despite scaling back on tariffs on key electronics

Slight delay in the release by the source. Looking at the breakdown, producer prices were seen up 0.1% on the month while import prices were flat in March. From a year-on-year perspective, producer and import prices were seen down 0.1% compared to March 2024. This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

Globes trade will begin at the top of the hour. Forex rates show EUR and JPY both lower against the USD. The latest muddled communication on whats going on with tariffs is that Trump shouted in a social-media post Sunday that “NOBODY is getting ‘off the hook’” on tariffs, the imposts are moving to a

Goldman Sachs cite: ongoing global economic uncertainty solid central bank demand increased inflows into gold-backed ETFs, still rising due to recession concerns Gold hit a record high today: This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

China March dollar-denominated exports +12.4% y/y China Customs says detected salmonella in imported American poultry meats and bone meal Goldman Sachs has raised its year-end gold price target to US$3,700 per ounce Bank of Japan Governor Ueda says US tariffs likely to weigh on global & Japanese economies Xi Jinping calls for deeper China-Vietnam cooperation

Bridgewater Associates founder Ray Dalio warned that President Donald Trump’s trade war has pushed the U.S. economy dangerously close to recession. “I think that right now we are at a decision-making point and very close to a recession,” he said on NBC’s Meet the Press. Dalio described the abrupt tariff changes—many delayed by 90 days

The one positive development over the weekend is that Trump relented on tariffs for electronics here. That said, he had to come out to clarify that a bit as they won’t be in the 145% bucket but set to be placed in a different bucket instead. When those tariffs will come about remains to be

Equity index futures: S&P 500 +1.1% … ES NASDAQ +1.5% … NQ DOW JONES +0.9% … YM There has been much baloney over the weekend over what tariff applies to electronics now (smartphones, PCs etc) – the number seems to be 20%, not 145%. Giving equities a boost. Risk FX update: This article was written

The info comes via a Reuters report over the weekend, though I thought I had seen similar late last week. ICYMi, Shipments of seven rare earth elements from China have come to a standstill following Beijing’s move to tighten export controls, sources told Reuters. The halt began on April 4 after the government placed the

Good morning, afternoon and evening all. Any charts, technical analysis, trade ideas, thoughts, views, ForexLive traders would like to share and discuss with fellow ForexLive traders, please do so: This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

The People’s Bank of China is expected to cut rates amidst the escalating Trump trade war. Earlier: China to step up stimulus, PBOC eyes rate and RRR cuts in Q2 China may cut interest rates and the reserve requirement ratio (RRR) if the trade war with the United States begins to significantly weigh on economic

Goldman Sachs has revised down its oil price forecasts, citing expectations of persistent supply surpluses and subdued demand growth. The bank now sees Brent crude averaging $63 per barrel and WTI at $59 for the remainder of 2025. For 2026, forecasts fall further to $58 for Brent and $55 for WTI. The downward revision reflects

Data for purchases made in New Zealand on debit, credit and store cards Card spending data covers around 68% of core retail sales in NZ. Its used as the main retail sales indicator for the country. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

We had some data from China over the weekend, see the first two lines in the screenshot below. The focus of the session is the trade data from China, the time in the screenshot (0300 GMT) is only a guide). Exports are expected to have jumped higher as pipeline jamming ahead of higher tariffs played

From an interview on ABC: Electronics products will be part of upcoming sectoral tariffs Pharma tariffs also coming in the next month or two US has had ‘soft entrees’ through intermediaries with China on tariffs Not concerned about the US dollar There were some real hopes building for a strong open in tech stocks based

The White House’s Stephen Miller — who is prickly at the best of times — is out with a tweet noting that 20% fentanyl tariffs still apply to China. He wrote this in response to a Washington Post article: Washington Post: maybe your reporters should try reading before posting. These products are subject to the

Weekend info on what appears to be a reversal on tariffs from Trump, an easing on tech goods: Smartphones and computers are among the tech products exempted from Trump’s 145% tariffs on Chinese goods. The exemptions were outlined in new guidance from US Customs, issued late Friday. Other exempted electronic items include: Semiconductors Solar cells

The major US stock indices are closing solidly higher and with the best gains the 2024. The final numbers are showing: Dow industrial average rose 619.05 points or 1.56% at 40,212.71 points S&P index rose 95.31 points or 1.81% at 5363.36. NASDAQ index rose 337.14 points or 2.06% at 16724.45. The small-cap Russell 2000 gains

The low price in the NASDAQ this week stalled at 14,784, just above the 200-week moving average, which currently sits at 14,616.37. Notably, this isn’t the first time that level has attracted support — in 2023, a similar dip found buyers just ahead of the same long-term average. The key difference then was the added

The price of gold continued it run to the upside, for the third week or oh extended above a topside channel trendline. That trendline cuts across at $3082 and moving higher. The price of gold is up close to 100% from it’s September 2022 low. For the trading year (2025), the price is up around

Monday Before Open: Goldman Sachs M&T Bank After Close: FirstBank Pinnacle Financial Partners Tuesday Before Open: Bank of America Citi Johnson & Johnson PNC Albertsons Ericsson After Close: United Airlines Interactive Brokers J.B. Hunt Wednesday Before Open: ASML US Bancorp Abbott Progressive insurance Travelers Prologis After Close: Alcoa CSX Kinder Morgan Thursday Before Open: TSMC

The market is now fully priced for an ECB rate cut on Thursday and Deutsche Bank economists have got on board. The economic hit from reciprocal tariffs, uncertainty, and tighter financial conditions likely exceeds what the ECB was expecting Previous ECB assumptions that tariffs would boost inflation have been challenged Recent developments including higher EUR,

US stocks close at higher with major indices having their best week in 2024 Gold has its best week since since the March 2023 Crude oil futures settled $61.50. Key target near $63.64 held resistance this week Nasdaq held 200 week MA this week. Back above the 100 week MA Collins: Fed ‘absolutely’ ready to

The price of crude oil futures are settling at $61.50. That is up $1.43 or 2.3%. The high price today reached $61 in a seven cents. The low price was at $59.46. For the week, the price is down $0.78 or -1.26%. At session lows however the price was down $-7.13 to a low of

Name a more toxic situationship than this. I’ll wait. With China’s retaliation today, it shows that Xi isn’t going to blink first and reach out. And from the looks of it, Trump also doesn’t want to budge from his position. But if something were to happen, market players will have to hope it happens soon.

I’m increasingly open to the idea that bitcoin could disconnect from the risk trade in light of risks around the US dollar and turmoil in the world. There is a strong correlation between bitcoin and the Nasdaq that’s been established in the last two years but it’s not iron clad. At the moment there is

The USDCAD broke below its 200-day moving average at 1.39969 during yesterday’s session — the first drop below that level since October 7. That break marked a major shift in bias and set the stage for continued downside momentum, which has extended into today’s trading. The pair has also moved below the 61.8% retracement of

We came into first quarter with solid economic conditions. Markets continue to function well. Tariffs will push up inflation pressures. Tariffs announcements are very significant. China trade issues are very big for economy. Hard to invest in times of big uncertainty. Current slate of tariffs are very high. Modal view is for slower growth, not

Charlie Gasparino from Fox Business is out with an interesting tweet: CEOs are speaking with the White House on the trade war; one told me that Trump has an open door policy and is listening to their concerns on the tariff impact on the economy and markets. The overwhelming fear expressed both to Trump and

So we’re all being held hostage by two men who are too proud to pick up the phone… CNN reports: In private discussions hours before China announced new retaliatory tariffs, the Trump administration warned Chinese officials against such a move The Chinese were also told – once again – that Chinese President Xi Jinping should

Oil rigs -9 to 480 Gas rigs +1 to 96 With oil falling into the 50s this week, I think it cements that US oil production will fall this year. The US has already drawn down its drilled-but-uncompleted wells and Tier 1 inventory is scarce. The economics of new wells make it very tough to

There’s no new development to the trade war just yet, so this looks to be just a bit of a breather again for now. After having pared some of the historic gains on Wednesday, we’re seeing stocks hold a calmer mood going into the final day of the week. All that being said, the coast

This is a positive comment as the US tries to find a way to bring down tensions with China. For now, it doesn’t look like China is going to be the one dialing but this whole thing is incredibly stupid. The Treasury Secretary is keeping a very close eye on the bond market More than

An interview with Collins is out in the FT. I take her comments to signal that the Fed would be there if things got disorderly (as always) but some in the market are taking it as a stronger signal that the Fed is standing by. I think a different report released at about the same

The AUDUSD is once again struggling at familiar resistance near its 100-day moving average. Earlier today, the pair moved higher but stalled just shy of the 100-day MA — a level that also capped rallies in February and saw two failed breakouts in March. Sellers leaned against it again, reinforcing the barrier and shifting momentum

Under a new agreement obtained by AFP, U.S. troops will be allowed to operate from several Panama-controlled sites along the Panama Canal. The deal, signed by senior officials from both countries, permits deployments for training, joint exercises, and other activities — but does not authorize the U.S. to build its own military bases, which would

Trump’s economic and financial agenda is wrong path. The EU mustn’t follow Trump on financial regulation. Deregulation would sow seeds of financial crises. Nothing new here as everyone’s critising Trump’s trade war as you would expect. This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at www.forexlive.com.

How is that for a headline? If US 30-year yields wrap up the week at 4.94% or higher, it will be the largest one-week rise in 43 years. That number will feed directly into mortgage costs and corporate borrowing. I’d imagine spreads aren’t exactly behaving well in this environment either. What’s driving it? It’s a

The USD is lower after China increased tariffs on US goods to 125% overnight. The EURUSD spiked above the swing high from 2023 at 1.1275 and the 61.8% of the move down from the January 2021 high which was near that level at 1.1271. The pair is now approaching the swing a swing area on

Akazawa will be meeting with Bessent and Greer for talks, according to the NHK. Japan being one of the closer allies to the US makes this process a bit easier, alongside the fact that they are the ones to approach Trump and his team to talk. But right now, the focus is solely on China

US 30-year yields are down 12 basis points from the highs and now trading lower on the day. That turnaround is salvaging global risk sentiment and leading to a rise in US equity markets. The S&P 500 is now up 1.4% on the day to a session high. The market may be sensing some good

Tariffs will push up inflation pressures Tariff announcements are very significant Hard to invest in times of big uncertainty Modal view is for slower growth, not a downturn Would expect inflation ‘well over 3%’ this year due to tariffs At this point the expectation is the Fed will need to hold for longer Sees a

What do you do with Treasuries the next time there is a crisis? One of the great privileges that the US enjoys in being at the center of the financial system is that when there is a crisis, markets rush into long-dated Treasuries, driving borrowing costs lower. This is a natural hedge to bad news

It’s not looking good in the bond market right now. There is an interesting contrast unfolding with UMich inflation expectations surging but market-based inflation expectations falling. The UMich ones are volatile but I fear that the market is thinking more about tumbling growth beyond the tariff shock and an administration that’s lost its focus on

Japan’s government is considering cutting food consumption tax – pros and cons of this! This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

The EURUSD surged higher today, breaking above both the 2023 swing high and the 61.8% retracement of the decline from the 2020 high — a key level near 1.1271. That breakout sparked strong upside momentum, sending the pair to a session high of 1.1473, just shy of the swing resistance zone between 1.1482 and 1.1516.

Joint fiscal capacity is an appropriate response to shocks. Market infrastructure in Europe is functioning in an orderly fashion. We are monitoring carefully all market developments. We don’t target any exchange rate. If I was aware of Fed intervention in support of Treasuries I would not tell you. This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta

Closing changes on the day: Stoxx 600 -0.1% German DAX -1.2% France CAC -0.3% UK FTSE 100 +0.6% Spain IBEX -0.1% Italy’s FTSE MIB -1.0% On the week: Stoxx 600 -% German DAX -1.5% France CAC -2.5% UK FTSE 100 -1.0% Spain IBEX -1.0% Italy’s FTSE MIB -2.0% The volatility is breathtaking at the moment

The economy started the year on a solid footing Sees unemployment rising to 4.5% to 5% this year Expects growth to slow to 1% this year Very important to keep inflation expectations anchored Modestly restrictive mon pol is totally appropriate Tariffs are a huge driver of uncertainty It’s nice to see him putting some numbers

I posted earlier on: EU Commissioner President Von De Leyen says could tax big tech if Trump trade talks fail Buried in that report is this exchange regarding the potential for China to increase exports to the UE, von de Leyrn concerned about this: von der Leyen said the EU “will not tolerate” Chinese goods

Our job is to make sure inflation expectations don’t rise. It’s a complicated thing to analyse. It’s hard to get a read of what’s happening underneath. We must ensure long-term inflation expectations don’t rise. I am not seeing evidence yet that long-run inflation expectations are rising. Investors may believe that if the trade deficit is

We’ve been expecting this and it finally happened: China retaliated tit-for-tat with a 125% tariff hike on US goods. This is not what we should focus on though as it’s now effectively a trade embargo between the two countries. The key line was China saying that it will ignore any further US hike because it

The NZDUSD reversed sharply higher after bottoming at 0.5483 on Wednesday, following a steep decline from last week’s high at 0.5852. The rebound nearly erased the entire drop, with price reaching 0.5839 — just 13 pips shy of the recent peak. That’s a powerful roundtrip and a clear signal of heightened volatility. The move off

Prior +3.0% HICP +2.2% vs +2.2% y/y prelim Prior +2.9% Core annual inflation is confirmed at 2.0% and down from 2.2% in February, so that’s a positive nod for the ECB. But again, all of this is pre-tariffs so we’ll see how things go moving forward. For now at least though, it won’t derail the

The USD 10-year yield has moved higher with the yield now up 15 basis points at 4.541%. For the week, the yield is up 53 basis points on the week alone. That is the largest 1 week gain since the 1980s (The lower scale on the chart above is the basis point change for the

It no longer makes economic sense if US imposes more tariffs US should bear the responsibility for the damage caused by tariffs You don’t need more tariffs to tell you that it already doesn’t make economic sense at this point. At this point, the tariff levels are just a number. The symbolism is more important

Prior was +3.2% PPI -0.4% m/m vs +0.2% expected Ex food and energy +3.3% y/y vs +3.6% expected Ex food and energy -0.1% m/m vs +0.3% expected Ex food, energy and trade +3.4% vs +3.5% prior Ex food, energy and trade +0.1% vs +0.4% prior This is some welcome cooling that shows some disinflation is

The situation last week of course was not helped by China announcing 34% retaliatory tariffs against the US here. Ah, just 34%? Good times. 10-year Treasury yields were also sitting at 3.88% then, and now they’re at 4.45%. If anything, it goes to show what a wild one week it has been in markets. Anyway,

Bloomberg Q: What’s your reaction this morning to China’s retaliatory tariffs overnight? Wright: “Oh, I think you can see we’re right in the midst of a negotiation. This is home territory for president Trump. Both in his business career and his first term as president, he reads the market place, he engages with people, he

In the European session, we don’t have much other than the Spanish final CPI which is likely to be ignored in the current context. In the American session, we have the US PPI and the UMich survey. As you might have noticed with the US CPI yesterday, the data is not the focus of the

The USDCHF has broken below a key long-term floor that previously stalled declines in 2015, 2023, and 2024. That critical support zone, between 0.8333 and 0.8373, gave way this week, pushing the pair into historically volatile territory — specifically the extremes of 2011, when USDCHF plummeted to an all-time low near 0.7067 (though some argue

Sector Overview: Divergence Spotlight in Technology and Finance The stock market today paints a vibrant picture of divergence, with the technology and financial sectors grabbing attention. The semiconductor arena posts notable gains led by AMD rising 3.73% and NVDA up by 0.81%, indicating renewed investor interest in these tech giants. Conversely, software application stocks such

The UMich consumer sentiment reports is like quantum physics: Something that exists in two states a once. It both matters and doesn’t matter. It’s a deeply flawed indicator but it also captures something, or at least the momentum of something. This edition is too early to capture the full effects of ‘Liberation Day’ but it

Rate cuts by year-end Fed: 95 bps (63% probability of no change at the upcoming meeting) ECB: 80 bps (99% probability of rate cut at the upcoming meeting) BoE: 86 bps (90% probability of rate cut at the upcoming meeting) BoC: 45 bps (56% probability of no change at the upcoming meeting) RBA: 125 bps

Tariffs if implemented pose upside risks to inflation but doesn’t know if that’s months, quarters or years Higher inflation and a softer labor market is closer to the baseline scenario now If inflation expectations become unanchored, have to prioritize fighting inflation Uncertainty on tariff announcements also a headwind The Fed funds market is 93% priced

No matter the changes to external environment, China will strengthen its confidence To maintain determination and concentrate on doing its own thing China and Europe should stick to partnership and adhere to open cooperation China and Europe should fulfil international responsibilities, jointly maintain international trade order Both sides should not only safeguard own interests but

The Wall Street Journal report on “Trump pushing the world’s two biggest economic powers into a battle that will leave neither unscathed and risks tanking the global economy”. The Journal is gated, though perhaps this article is not? Link here if you can access it: The U.S. and China Are Going to Economic War—and Everyone

Prior was 57.9 Current conditions 56.5 vs 61.5 expected Expectations 47.2 vs 50.8 expected 1-year inflation 6.7% vs 4.9% prior 5-year inflation 4.4% vs 3.9% prior This is a flawed survey but it’s a bad result and I don’t see how it improves next month given all the tariff hikes along with rising long-end rates.

In the FX world, everyone is talking about the US Dollar selloff and there are even talks of the greenback losing its reserve status and what not. Generally, when people get very bearish (or bullish) something, that’s when the market does the opposite. Bloomberg reported that traders are the most bearish on the USD in

Info via Reuters. A Harley-Davidson board member has resigned after raising serious concerns about the company’s direction, triggering an 11% drop in the stock on Thursday. Jared Dourdeville, who represents Harley’s second-largest shareholder, H Partners, cited “cultural depletion” stemming from leadership departures and remote work policies in a letter to the board. He also called

Yen, EUR, GBP, CHF are all soaring against the hapless US dollar. Gold too, I shouldn’t leave it out. As I said earlier, there are no fresh catalysts apart from what has already been posted. Also as I said earlier: Markets are now incorporating the risk to Fed independence into their tariff worries. The US

China tariff hike is start of negotiation. I am optimistic on where the US is heading with tariffs and China. He’s been speaking about Iran and global oil demand, but these two lines caught my attention. Is this the first sign that we are about to get some de-escalation? This article was written by Giuseppe

Headlines: China announces increase of additional tariffs on US goods to 125% China says it will ignore the US on further tariffs escalation All eyes stay on the bond market in final trading day of the week Some warning signs for US Dollar shorts Japan economy minister says to hold negotiations with US on tariffs

Safe-haven assets caught a strong bid in recent trading, directing Spot Gold to all-time highs of US$3,220/troy ounce versus the US dollar (XAU/USD). The shift towards safe-haven markets was fueled by softer demand for the USD as markets fled dollar assets, as well as escalating trade tensions between the US and China. Unsurprisingly, the Swiss

That’s a good sign at least that things are moving along quickly, at least on this front. But as for the outcome of the negotiations, we’ll see. If 10% tariffs remain the baseline for everyone, it’s still not exactly a good thing. This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

Eurostoxx +1.0% Germany DAX +1.0% France CAC 40 +1.0% UK FTSE +0.7% Spain IBEX +0.5% Italy FTSE MIB +0.7% European indices missed out on the surging rally on Wednesday and so had to play some catching up yesterday. But then, there was a more negative market mood weighing as well on Thursday itself. And now

Amid the chaos in the markets, the relevance of option expiries during a week like this tends to be rather low. The relative impact of the expiries is extremely minimal when traders are more focused on broader market sentiment and headline risks during this period. Those are the more pertinent factors in driving price action,

ECB is monitoring and ready to use instruments it has if needed to procure price stability. She’s just saying that the central bank stands ready to use all of its instruments in case things go awry. The market is 100% sure of a 25 bps cut at the next week’s meeting and expects at least

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