Memories of the downfall of Liz Truss are being resurrected as the UK bond market recoils after Labour’s first budget in 15 years. UK 10-year gilt yields are up 12 bps to 4.47%, which is the highest since November 2023. It was a spike earlier in 2023 to 4.75% that pushed out Truss and her […]

Prior +1.6% A rise in non-food store retail sales (+1.7%) is helping to bolster the overall reading, offsetting the drop from food store sales (-0.8%). After months of absent data, it’s a bit surprising to suddenly see a shift in trend when the series has returned after a methodology fix as well. Interesting. This article

It would have probably been wise not to comment at all rather than say “we do not comment on market movements”. He also said this: The budget has been about restoring fiscal stability, there are two new robust fiscal rulesTough choices were necessary to fix the foundations of UK economy UK 10-year yields have cooled

US Treasury yields are at the highs of the day across the curve on a small jump in the past 15 minutes. US 10s are now up 1 bps on the day to 4.28% after falling as low as 4.20% earlier. It’s not clear what the catalyst is because there are conflicting Middle East reports

Prior quarter 0.9%employment cost index Q3 0.8% versus 0.9% estimaeemployment wages QoQ 0.8% versus 0.9% last quarteremployment benefits 0.8% versus 1.0% last quarter HIGHLIGHTS from the BLS Civilian workers’ compensation costs rose by 0.8% (seasonally adjusted) from June to September 2024.Over the 12-month period ending in September 2024, civilian workers’ compensation costs increased 3.9%, down

The GBPUSD has moved below the 1.2938 level. That level corresponded with a number of swing lows and highs going back to mid-July (see red numbered circles on the chart below). See earlier video HERE at 4:15 mark. Last week the price fell below that level as well, but quickly snapped back higher. Today we

Politico is out with a new poll and it once again show a very tight race that comes down to Pennsylvania, which is near deadlocked. Pennsylvania: Harris 48%; Trump 47% Michigan: Harris 49%; Trump 45% North Carolina: Trump 47%; Harris 45% New Hampshire: Harris 50%; Trump 43% Yesterday, we saw bonds sell off and the

Inflation outlook for fiscal year 2025, 2026 is much less certain than for 2024New risks could emerge depending on who will be the new US president The rest here are just token remarks but these ones are perhaps hitting in an air pocket with USD/JPY falling below its 100-hour moving average (seen below) ahead of

This is because Japan has not seen rate hikes in a very long timeNext rate hike can happen when we become more confidence of realising our outlookIf wage hikes are similar to this year, that will be a positive developmentBut that doesn’t mean we will decide a rate hike only with that This article was

It will be three months before we get any real indications on Q4 and this number is mostly a placeholder. More-pressing in the next few weeks will be indications on how Q3 GDP will be revised. That said, CIBC made an argument that US potential (non-inflationary) growth is now 3%. This article was written by

There is a bit of a ‘sell everything’ mode underway and the S&P 500 is down more than 1% now and has broken last week’s low. The bond market isn’t helping as UK gilt yields are now up 15 bps in what could be a preview of what’s to come for Treasuries if we get

Tony Vejseli, Figure Markets Holdings Inc., and GXD Labs, LLC (collectively “the Group”) today issued a statement to address recent developments following a meeting held on October 28 at White & Case’s Midtown Manhattan offices, where the Group met with the board of directors (the “Board”) and management team of Ionic Digital, Inc. (the “Company”

Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co., the world’s largest maker of advanced chips: Activated routine typhoon alert preparation procedures at all our Taiwan Fabs and construction siteswe do not expect significant impact to our operations This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

What are the key technical levels in play as the North American session begins? and why? EURUSD: The EURUSD moved up to test the 200 day MA and swing area up to 1.08725 yesterday and found willing sellers on the first look. The price backed off into the close and extended to 1.0843 in the

Headlines: Japanese yen still the only notable mover among major currencies so far todayBOJ governor Ueda comments on phrasing of needing time to scrutinise market risksBOJ governor Ueda: Uncertainties surrounding Japan’s economy, prices remain highBOJ governor Ueda: Will pay attention to upside risks to prices from weak yenBOJ governor Ueda: It is possible that unforeseen

Starting Friday, China’s six largest national banks will introduce a new pricing system for existing mortgage rates. Previously, mortgage rate adjustments could only occur once a year, but now homebuyers have more flexibility. They can ask banks to adjust the repricing period to either three or six months whenever they choose or stick with the

Will keep adjusting the degree of easing if economic, price outlook is to be realisedMust pay due attention to financial, FX markets and their impact on economy, pricesNeed to closely watch impact of overseas economies, including US economy as wellTo publish findings of long-term policy review after the December meetingWon’t hold preconceptions about timing of

He says that back in August, they used the phrase of “we can afford some time” in scrutinising market risks because of the volatility back then i.e. a reason to pause. And he mentions that now, “we do not have to use that phrase today”. However, he does note that they aren’t at a stage

Gold is trading above $15.20 or 0.55% at $2789.38. Looking at the daily chart, takes the price up toward a channel trendline. If the price starts at move above the high $2790, we could see an easy run toward the next natural target at $2800. Since July 15, the price of gold is up 18.54%Since

Prior was +0.2%Advance Sept GDP +0.3% m/mAugust GDP unchanged (0.0%) vs +0.1% in JulyManufacturing sector drops 1.2%, biggest drag on growthRail transportation tumbles 7.7% due to lockouts at major carriersFinance sector up 0.5% on market volatility and trading activity The advanced Sept number is a nice improvement and has given a small lift to the

Prior week initial claims 227K revised to 228KInitial jobless claims 216K vs 230K estimate4-week MA of initial jobless claims 236.50 versus 238.75K last weekPrior week continuing claims 1.897M revise to 1.888MContinuing claims 1.862M vs 1.885M estimate4-week MA of continuing claims 1.869M vs 1.8585M last week. The largest increases in initial claims for the week ending

Australian building permits, September 2024 Building Approvals +4.4% expected +2.1%, prior –6.1% *-*-*-* This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

The NASDAQ index is now down -2.6%. The current prices trading at 182 and a .90-389 points or -2.09%. The low price reached 18214.84. In 2024, there have been 11-days where the price fell over 2.0%. The worst decline was a -3.64% decline back on July 24. On August 5 the day of the Japan

Happy Halloween. Unless you’re long stocks, particularly tech stocks that reported yesterday. Shares of Meta are down 1.5% and Microsoft nearly 4% after reporting late yesterday. The market is also rattled by Super Micro, which is down another 5% yesterday after its auditor quit yesterday. It’s a big customer for Nvidia, which is down 1.2%

Prior 72.82k US-based employers announced 55,597 job cuts in October and that is a near 24% decrease from the number of layoffs announced in September. That said, it is up almost 51% compared to the October of 2023. From last month’s report, we already saw the number of layoffs year-to-date in 2024 surpassing the entire

Prior m/m +0.1%Unrounded core PCE was +0.254% Core PCE +2.7% y/y vs +2.6% expectedHeadline inflation PCE +2.1% y/y vs +2.1% expected (Prior +2.2, revised to +2.3%)Deflator +0.2% m/m vs +0.2% expected Unrounded +0.175% m/m vs +0.0907% prior Consumer spending and income for August: Personal income +0.3% vs +0.3% expected. Prior month +0.2%Personal spending +0.5% vs

Rate cuts will continueRemains prudent on inflation outlookOur goal is in sight but cannot say that inflation is completely under controlFuture rate cuts will be determined by underlying economic data in the coming months There’s nothing new here in her latest comments. The ECB is still poised to cut rates further, with traders now leaning

Full text is here: Opening Statement before the Senate Standing Committee on Banking, Commerce and the Economy Stay tuned for the Q&A! This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

Goldman Sachs now projects that the Bank of England will keep rates unchanged at the December meeting vs its previous forecast of a 25bps cut. The BoE meet on November 7 and then again on December 19. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

Here is the snapshot of dollar pairs so far in European morning trade: Besides USD/JPY, other dollar pairs are not showing much appetite with light changes among the other major currencies. And that is despite the more negative risk flows we’re seeing in equities. S&P 500 futures are now down 0.8%, so that looks to

Today is going to be the busiest day of the week in terms of data releases. In the European session, the main highlight will be the Eurozone CPI report. In the American session, we get the Canadian GDP, the US Core PCE, the US Jobless Claims and the US Employment Cost Index. We might get

People’s Bank of China USD/CNY reference rate is due around 0115 GMT. The People’s Bank of China (PBOC), China’s central bank, is responsible for setting the daily midpoint of the yuan (also known as renminbi or RMB). The PBOC follows a managed floating exchange rate system that allows the value of the yuan to fluctuate

This table is via a tweet from the Wall Street Journal’s Nick Timiraos – great stuff! The data point is due on Thursday morning 8.30 am US Eastern time This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

There are a couple to take note of, as highlighted in bold. The first one is for EUR/USD at the 1.0850 level and that is likely to limit price action until we get to the euro area inflation data later. The numbers there offers a risk to the single currency, but there is also still

Prior +1.1%HICP +1.5% vs +1.5% y/y expectedPrior +1.4% This matches up with the slight upticks in Spain and Germany from yesterday as well. The good news at least here is that services inflation is seen easing further to 2.2%, down from 2.4% previously. This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

US Q3 advance GDP +2.8% vs +3.0% expectedCore PCE Advanced for Q3 comes in at 2.2% vs 2.1% estimateUS October ADP employment +233K vs +114K expectedUS pending home sales for September +7.4% versus 1.0% estimateOPEC+ could delay oil production hike scheduled for December by one month or moreUS German prelim HICP 2.4% vs 2.1% expectedECB’s

Microsoft earnings for the quarter are better than expectations: EPS $3.30 versus $3.10 expectedRevenues $65.6B dollars versus $64.519 estimate Microsoft cloud revenues $38.9B versus expected $38.19BAzure and other cloud services up 34% Microsoft shares are trading up 2.18% at $442.51. This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

The People’s Bank of China set the onshore yuan (CNY) reference rate for the trading session ahead. USD/CNY is the onshore yuan. Its permitted to trade plus or minus 2% from this daily reference rate.CNH is the offshore yuan. USD /CNH has no restrictions on its trading range.A significantly stronger or weaker rate than expected

North Korea have fired off another ballistic missile. Reports via Yonhap and the Japanese Coast Guard. NK normally sent these into the East Sea (Sea of Japan). Stay tuned for more info as it comes in more to come This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

Eurostoxx -0.7%Germany DAX -0.7%France CAC 40 -0.5%UK FTSE -0.6%Spain IBEX -0.4%Italy FTSE MIB -0.5% It’s been a rough week for European stocks and the selling looks to continue into month-end. Just be wary that the CAC 40 index is now pipping back below its 100-week moving average for the first time since the first week

The USDJPY is lower on the day, but has been able to points for buyers against its rising 100-hour moving average. That moving average, comes at 152.826. A move below that level would have traders targeting the rising 200-hour moving average of 151.972. There’s other support on the 4-hour chart at a swing area at

Fundamental Overview The strong bullish momentum in the US Dollar waned a bit in this final part of the week as we got a pullback in Treasury yields. In fact, the main culprit for the US Dollar strength lately has been the rally in long term Treasury yields. The yield curve has been bear-flattening which

Fundamental Overview The strong bullish momentum in the US Dollar waned a bit in this final part of the week as we got a pullback in Treasury yields. In fact, the main culprit for the US Dollar strength lately has been the rally in long term Treasury yields. The yield curve has been bear-flattening which

Prior +0.7%HICP +1.0% vs +0.8% y/y expectedPrior +0.7% This matches up to what we are seeing with Spain, Germany, and France this week. Headline prices are marked higher in October but this did not lead to much change in core prices as seen with the Eurozone release at the same time. This article was written

Monetary conditions remain restrictive, rates need to come downInflation is easing, must pay attention to weakness in the economyMust avoid the risk of pushing inflation well below target It just reaffirms the policy path they are on now, so it isn’t anything new. But considering the recent data, it might be tough to make a

China National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) data, October 2024 PMIs Manufacturing 50.1, first time in expansion for six months expected 50.0, prior 49.8 Non manufacturing 50.2 expected 50.4, prior 50.0 Composite is 50.8 prior 50.4 Stimulus announcements from China hit from late September and continued right through October. Stimulus announcement should continue once the People’s

Credit growth in Australia, September 2024 Housing credit carrying on higher both m/m and y/y. -*/-*/ This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

Australia retail sales data for both September and Q3, 2024. Weak data in September: Retail Sales +0.1% m/m expected +0.3%, prior +0.7% – Retail Sales excluding inflation for Q3 +0.5% q/q, a decent rise expected +0.5%, prior -0.3% /*-/*- This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

German DAX futures -0.5%UK FTSE futures -0.4% US futures are marked lower, with tech shares leading the decline. S&P 500 futures are now down 0.6% with Nasdaq futures down 0.9% on the day. From earlier: US futures not impressed by big tech earnings so far This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

Bank of Japan statement, October 31 2024. maintains short term interest rate target at 0.25%, as expected, in a unanimous decision Forecasts for CPI and GDP: Board’s core CPI fiscal 2024 median forecast at +2.5% vs +2.5% in JulyBoard’s core CPI fiscal 2025 median forecast at +1.9% vs +2.1% in JulyBoard’s core CPI fiscal 2026

The Bank of Japan maintained its short term interest rate target at 0.25%, as expected, in a unanimous decision. In its report the Bank made mention, specifically of FX impacts. Worth being aware of this. It doesn’t change the reaction of Japanese authorities to a rapidly falling yen, I wouldn’t think. USD/JPY has done very

The news from the Bank of Japan: Bank of Japan leaves rates unchanged, as widely expected With little initial response USD/JPY is little changed after the Bank of Japan statement, around 153.35 This seems to be feeding into a stronger yen, though of course correlation is not causation: North Korea says its ICBM test set

Major currencies are little changed for the most part with only the Japanese yen being the slight mover in the handover from Asia to Europe. It comes after the BOJ policy decision, in which the central bank left rates unchanged as expected. USD/JPY caught a whipsaw on the decision but is looking to settle slightly

The Bank of Japan statement is due soon. I posted earlier: Bank of Japan Policy Meeting Preview – Don’t Hold Your Breath for a HikePreview – Bank of Japan meeting this week – no change to policy expectedJapanese Inflation Data Impact on USD/JPY; BoJ Meeting Outlook The Bank of Japan don’t have a set time

A heads up via a Goldman Sachs derivatives research note. Citing options markets, GS says it’ll be a volatile election day (November 5): SPX options pricing implies a plus/minus 2.1% move on the dayoptions on the top 25 macro ETFs which imply an average move of +/- 5.3% for U.S. elections when compared to the

New Zealand October 2024 Business Survey, showing improvement. Business confidence 65.7% prior 60.9 Activity outlook 45.9% prior 45.3 The table below is from the ANZ report. Mixed results but not as bleak as it was just a few months ago. Retailing showing weak results. — This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

The US major stock indices are closing lower and near the lows for the day. The final numbers are showing : Dow industrial Average fell -91.46 points or -0.22% at 42141.60S&P Index fell -19.18 or -0.33% at 5813.74Nasdaq index is closing down -10.4.82 points ro -0.56% at 18607.93. Yesterday the price closed at a record

Yen seems to be drawing strength from this …. North Korea says it fired ICBMNorth Korea says its ICBM test sets new recordNorth Korea’s Kim Jong Un says missile test was appropriate military activityNorth Korea’s Kim Jong Un says our enemies’ dangerous moves have emphasized need to strengthen nuclear forceNorth Korea’s Kim Jong Un says

Goldman Sachs forecasts Bank of England to hold rates at Dec meeting (vs. prior 25bp cut)European Central Bank speakers on Thursday include Escriva and KnotUSD/JPY losing more ground now after the Bank of Japan ‘on hold’ decisionNorth Korea says its ICBM test set new recordsUSD/JPY is little changed after the Bank of Japan statement, around

The losses so far today are largely led by tech, with Nasdaq futures down 0.7% currently. It comes despite Meta and Microsoft reporting earnings beat after the close, with Greg providing a comprehensive rundown of it all here. Is it a case of month-end timing? Or perhaps investors weren’t all too happy with the surging

Snippet from Bank of America on what to watch in the NFP and FOMC. forecast a 25bp rate cut from the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) next weeksays October jobs report will be noisy, BoA expects nonfarm payrolls to rise by 100,000, which would be a ‘solid print’“Even if there is an upside surprise, we

Keynote speech by Bank of England Deputy Governor Sarah Breeden at the Hong Kong Monetary Authority and Bank for International Settlements joint conference ‘Opportunities and challenges of emerging technologies in the financial ecosystem’ That sounds like there won’t be much on view of the economy nor monetary policy. But, perhaps something in any Q&A? Due

Australian terms of trade data for Q3 2024 Australia Import Price Index Q3 -1.4% q/q expected -0.3%, prior +1.0% & Export Price Index -4.3% q/q expected –4.0%, prior –5.9% *-*- This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

The Reserve Bank of New Zealand have published an update on the NZ housing market. Full text here: Update on the housing market Headlines via Reuters: Home buyers remain cautious in subdued housing market in nzLooking ahead, govt policy changes underway to increase long-term supply responsiveness in housing marketUncertain when and by how much demand

1000 GMT / 0600 US Eastern time: Bank of Spain governor Jose Luis Escriva to speak at Santander’s International Banking Conference in MadridWe heard from Escriva last week: ECBs Escriva: Risk to inflation remains balanced 1130 GMT / 0730 US Eastern time: Dutch central bank governor Klaas Knot to speak at Santander’s International Banking ConferenceWe

Previews of what to expect from the BOJ today: Bank of Japan Policy Meeting Preview – Don’t Hold Your Breath for a HikePreview – Bank of Japan meeting this week – no change to policy expectedJapanese Inflation Data Impact on USD/JPY; BoJ Meeting Outlook The Bank of Japan don’t have a set time for publishing

After the close today the following will announce earnings: Microsoft (MSFT)Meta (META)Coinbase (COIN)Robinhood (HOOD)Etsy (ETSY)Roku (ROKU)Carvana (CVNA)Starbucks (SBUX) A look at the expectations for EPS and revenues: Microsoft: Estimate EPS $3.10 on revenues of $64.569 billion. That compares to $2.99 on $56.517 billion last year. Shares are trading up $2.70 or 0.63% at $434.66.Meta Platforms:

MGM Resorts International (MGM) Q3 2024 EPS: $0.54 (missed expectations of $0.61)Revenue: $4.2 billion (met expectations of $4.21 billion)Shares are trading down -4.85% MetLife Inc (MET) Q3 2024 EPS: $1.95 (missed expectations of $2.18)Revenue: $18.46 billion (missed expectations of $18.68 billion)Shares are trading down -9.83% DoorDash Inc (DASH) Q3 2024 EPS: $0.38 (beat expectations of

EPS $6.03 versus expected $5.24Revenues: $40.59B versus $40.279B estimateCapital expenditures estimate $38 billion – $40 billionAdvertising revenue $39.89 billion versus expected $39.71 billion Guidance: Estimate $45 billion – $48 billion shares of meta are trading down 1.80% at $581.02 This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

It’s a packed data agenda ahead for the session. Most of the focus is on the PMIs from China and the Bank of Japan decision. China’s PMIs are expected to show small improvement, which will be welcome. Stimulus announcements from China hit from late September and continued right through October, which will help give economic

Appearance by Bank of Canada Governor Tiff Macklem and Senior Deputy Governor Carolyn Rogers at the standing senate committee on banking, commerce and the economy. more to come … if he says something interesting that is! This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

HSBC anticipates a knee-jerk rally in EUR/USD if Kamala Harris wins the US election, driven by initial USD weakness. However, they expect this rally to be temporary, with the pair likely resuming a downward trajectory as monetary policy differences reassert influence. Key Points: A Harris victory is likely to cause a short-term EUR/USD rally, reflecting

Good morning, afternoon and evening all. Any charts, technical analysis, trade ideas, thoughts, views, ForexLive traders would like to share and discuss with fellow ForexLive traders, please do so: This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

Israeli public broadcaster Kan has publishes a ceasefire proposal dated Oct 26, and that comes shortly after Lebanon’s PM said there could be a ceasefire in “hours or days”. Calls for Israel and Lebanon to implement UN Resolutions 1701 and 1559Lebanese armed forces will monitor and enforce the resolutionFull implementation will be finalized during 60-day

Today was a busy day of economic data that featured a strong ADP jobs report and a softer-than-expected GDP report that contained some very strong details. We also got a blockbuster pending home sales report. Normally that combination would lead to some US dollar strength but that hasn’t been the case today. Instead, we’re seeing

USDCAD Technical Analysis The USDCAD has experienced a volatile month, with one day remaining. Key milestones include: Monthly low: 1.3472 (October 2) Monthly high: 1.3938 (today) Trading range: 466 pips, second-largest since December 2022 Uptrend dominant throughout the month Technically: Price rarely dipped below 100-hour moving average Last breach: Thursday last week, with support at

The US posted another impressive GDP report today, though slightly less than expected. Growth of 2.8% fell short of the 3.0% consensus but the details in this report were impressive, with consumer spending offsetting a drag from net trade. The important takeaway from CIBC is that the economy isn’t overheating – they say “3% is

The People’s Bank of China set the onshore yuan (CNY) reference rate for the trading session ahead. USD/CNY is the onshore yuan. Its permitted to trade plus or minus 2% from this daily reference rate.CNH is the offshore yuan. USD /CNH has no restrictions on its trading range.A significantly stronger or weaker rate than expected

Headlines: 10-year Treasury yields stay in retreat after brief brush above 4.30% yesterdayEuro pushes higher on German Q3 GDP beat, higher state inflation readingsGermany Q3 preliminary GDP +0.2% vs -0.1% q/q expectedBavaria October CPI +2.4% vs +1.9% y/y priorUK budget preview: What to expect this time around?Eurozone Q3 preliminary GDP +0.4% vs +0.2% q/q expectedFrance

Bank of America forecasts a 100k increase in October nonfarm payrolls, affected by Hurricane Milton and the Boeing strike, with average hourly earnings growth rising to 0.5% m/m. Despite potential data distortions, BofA expects the Fed to proceed with a 25bps cut at next week’s FOMC meeting. Key Points: Nonfarm payrolls projected to increase by

The AUDUSD reached a new low earlier today at 0.6536, but has since bounced higher. The run higher has extended back above the broken 61.8% of the move up from the July low at 0.6570, and after trading above and below that level in the European session and into the US session, the price extended

As we head into a myriad of economic releases and events including US jobs, inflation data, key earnings, US election, central bank decisions, it is important to understand where we stand from a technical perspective. IN the video, I take a look at 3 of the major currency pairs and make sense of the technical

Eurostoxx -0.6%Germany DAX -0.5%France CAC 40 -0.8%UK FTSE -0.5%Spain IBEX -0.5%Italy FTSE MIB -0.7% Some mixture of earnings releases are also in play but the overall mood in Europe is a more negative one, keeping with the selling from yesterday. The DAX is now under threat to erase its monthly advance as such. Looking at

Looking at the near-term chart, buyers are starting to exert more control as they hold the break above the 100 (red line) and 200-hour (blue line) moving averages. The high for the day clips 1.0859 and it comes after a beat in German Q3 GDP alongside higher state inflation readings. But let’s take a step

ECBs VIlleroy: ECB does not have to react to short-term deviations from inflation target under the medium-term orientationVictory against inflation insight This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

Prior 17kUnemployment rate 6.1% vs 6.1% expectedPrior 6.0% German joblessness ticked higher this month with the unemployment rate also nudging up slightly. The labour office notes that “the autumn upturn in the labour market has largely failed to materialise this year”. This will continue to be a spot to watch going into next year as

Fundamental Overview The S&P 500 continues to consolidate near the all-time high as the election uncertainty keeps a lid on further gains. The election is going to be a major event for the market with a red sweep seen as the most bullish scenario, while a blue sweep could trigger some short term weakness. In

The Australian inflation data came in around expectations, and not enough to move the needle on RBA rate hikes: Australian Q3 inflation headline 2.8% y/y (expected 2.9%) You’ll see in that data post that the monthly reading was a very nice 2.1%, but it’s the quarterly, headline 2.8%, core 3.5%, that is (are) the official

Good morning, afternoon and evening all. Any charts, technical analysis, trade ideas, thoughts, views, ForexLive traders would like to share and discuss with fellow ForexLive traders, please do so: This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

Macklem spoke on Tuesday: BOC’s Macklem: We anticipate cutting further if economy follows our forecastsBank of Canada Governor Macklem says beginning to see the impact of recent rate cuts He’s back with Deputy Rogers for more on Wednesday: Appearance by Bank of Canada Governor Tiff Macklem and Senior Deputy Governor Carolyn Rogers at the standing

After the UK budget and OBR assessment: Markets reflect and 82% chance of a 25 basis point cut in November versus 92% chance earlierMarkets national and 48% chance of a further 25 basis point cut in December versus 63% earlier today 10 year yields are now up 3.6 basis points at 4.353%. The two year

The USDCAD has been stretching higher and is extending closer to the high price from 2024 at 1.39458. Move above that level and traders would target the 2022 high at 1.3970. Get above that level and the pair is trading at the highest level going back to 2020. In this video, I outline those topside

Prior -6.7%Market index 214.5 vs 214.8 priorPurchase index 137.8 vs 131.3 priorRefinancing index 630.0 vs 672.6 prior30-year mortgage rate 6.73% vs 6.52% prior After a sharp fall in mortgage applications in the previous two weeks, the latest reading is little changed but it’s important to look at the details. Refinancing activity took yet another sharp

After testing the 10810 level and finding buyers near that level early in the US session, the price has snapped back to the upside and has entered into a topside resistance area between 1.0864 and 1.08725. That area is defined by the 100-bar moving average on a four hour chart, the 200 day moving average,

This budget raises taxes by GBP40 billionWe will maintain BOE’s 2% inflation targetOBR says budget will boost long term growthWill balance budget in third yearConfirms earlier reported rise in minimum wageWill ‘catalyze’ 70 billion pounds through new National Wealth FundWill increase employers’ national insurance contribution by 1.2 percentage pointsWill reduce threshold for paying national insurance

Healthcare falls as Google surges: Navigating today’s market shifts The US stock market showcased a day of contrasts, with notable gains in communication services led by Google, while the healthcare sector faced significant declines. Investors are advised to stay agile as today’s dynamics may shape short-term strategies. 🩺 Healthcare Sector: A Rough Day Eli Lilly

The GBPUSD early in the US session retested the low price from Monday’s trade at 1.2938. That level was also a swing level going back in time to July and August. Support held and the price was able to rebound back above its 100 day moving average of 1.29742. Sellers turn to buyers and the

The weekly inventory data from the EIA shows: crude oil inventories -0.515M vs. 2.300M estimateGasoline inventories -2.707M vs 0.600M estimateDistillates inventories -0.977M vs -1.595M estimateCushing 0.681M vs -0.346M last weekCrude production 13.5 million barrels versus 13.5 million barrels previously. The private data released late yesterday showed: Crude oil is trading at $68.19 ahead of the

Swiss franc is a safe haven, it appreciates in times of uncertaintySNB ready to intervene in currency markets as necessaryReady to react to pressure on the franc as well With EUR/CHF keeping closer to the lows for the year, it is telling of market sentiment regarding the franc. And that is despite the SNB being

Inflation to remain a bit bumpy due to energy. We expect wage growth remains highest year and rather bumpyData today is the first indication that we have reached a turning point.Relatively strong consumption data in Germany and France give some hope for a turnaroundGeopolitical risks have increased significantly.Major worry is protectionism, in light of US

ECB’s Schnabel is speaking and says: Disinflation remains on track, which allowed the ECB to lower rates further in OctoberWarns that the fight against inflation is not yet won.A gradual approach to removing restriction remains appropriate.Neutral rate is subject to high uncertainty.No need to go below neutral (COMMENT: even though it is undefined…)Risk of meaningful

Blast Royale has announced the upcoming pre-sale of its Low FDV Community Offering (LCO) for the $NOOB token, scheduled for November 6th. As a community-focused initiative, this offering aims to integrate players and supporters, marking a significant move in the Gaming x Meme token space. With record engagement, including over 85,000 Daily Active Users (DAU),

People’s Bank of China USD/CNY reference rate is due around 0115 GMT. The People’s Bank of China (PBOC), China’s central bank, is responsible for setting the daily midpoint of the yuan (also known as renminbi or RMB). The PBOC follows a managed floating exchange rate system that allows the value of the yuan to fluctuate

Prior was +143Annual pay growth for job-stayers 4.6% vs 4.7% priorJob-changers’ pay gains 6.2% vs 6.6% priorServices +211K vs +101K priorGoods +22K vs +42K prior USD/JPY was trading at 153.00 ahead of this report and jumped 38 pips afterwards. “Even amid hurricane recovery, job growth was strong in October,” said Nela Richardson, chief economist, ADP.

ECB policymakers have been worried about an uptick in inflation towards the end of the year. But so far, that hasn’t quite materialised. We will be getting the first taste of Q4 readings today, so we’ll see about that. That being said, base effects are still to be the likely culprit in deciphering any slight

The USDCHF remains mired in a narrow trading range. Since breaking above the 38.2% of the move down from the July high back on October 16, the price has been mired in a range from 0.8629 to 0.8699 or about 70 pips (over around 10 trading days). That is not a lot. The consolidation has

Short sellers took aim at Super Micro (SMCI) earlier this year and it appears as though they were onto something. The company revealed today that auditor Ernst & Young quit and said it was “unwilling to be associated with the financial statements prepared by management.” “We are resigning due to information that has recently come

Prior month +0.6%Pending home sales 7.4% versus 1.0% expectedHome sales index 75.8 versus 70.6 last monthSales up 2.6% year on year Regionally: Northeast +6.5%West +9.8%Midwest 7.1%sound 6.7% Of note is that mortgage rates have soared since the lows in September which were near 6.1%. The 30 year fixed mortgage is now up at 7.08%. This

FBS, a leading global broker, explores the essential role of cryptocurrencies in hyperinflated economies. In the recently published article, FBS experts analyze the benefits of digital currencies in countries like Venezuela, Argentina, Zimbabwe, Nigeria, and Brazil, where national currencies continue to suffer rapid devaluation. As inflation surges in these regions, digital currencies are recognized for

ECB’s Schnabel is speaking on WednesdayAustralian inflation data earlier “close but no ….” rate cutBank of Japan Policy Meeting Preview – Don’t Hold Your Breath for a HikeAustralian inflation data – what could drive a December Reserve Bank of Australia rate cutBank of Canada Governor Macklem and Deputy Rogers are speaking again on WednesdayPBOC sets

Prior +0.2% The beat here is most welcome but it doesn’t take away from the struggling outlook. Germany’s manufacturing sector remains in recession and the boost to France in Q3 is largely thanks to a one-off demand shot in the arm from the Olympics. That will keep the pressure on the ECB especially if there

Prior was 1.8%m/m HICP +0.4% vs +0.2% expCPI +2.0% y/y vs +1.8% expCPI +0.4% m/m vs +0.2% exp These numbers are hot but were flagged by regional numbers earlier. As Justin wrote: Just take note that the readings here are much higher than anticipated. And this is likely to see an upside consideration to the

Swiss National Bank Chairman Martin Schlegel spoke on Tuesday: “In the coming quarters, further interest rate reductions could be needed to maintain price stability in the mid-term” “The good news is that our inflation forecasts show inflation in the area of price stability in the long term” SNB forecasts for average inflation rates: 1.2% in

Fundamental Overview The main culprit for the US Dollar strength lately has been the rally in long term Treasury yields. The yield curve has been bear-flattening which is what you would expect with higher growth and potentially higher inflation expectations. There’s a good argument that the markets have been already positioning for a Trump’s victory

There’s no clear catalyst for the roughly 10 bps drop in yields from the highs yesterday. Perhaps month-end rebalancing flows are at play here? That’s definitely a consideration alongside the slew of US data for the week, which kicked off yesterday via the JOLTS job openings and consumer confidence data. Coming up later, we’ll have

AP with the report: A Japanese nuclear reactor which survived a massive 2011 earthquake and tsunami that badly damaged the nearby Fukushima nuclear power plant was restarted Tuesday for the first time since the disaster after a safety upgrade, as the government pursues a renewed expansion of nuclear energy to provide stable power and reduce

Looking at the details: Overall livelihood: 34.2 (previously 34.4)Income growth: 39.4 (previously 40.1)Employment: 41.6 (previously 42.2)Willingness to buy durable goods: 29.7 (previously 31.0) This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

Morph, a global consumer layer for driving blockchain adoption, today announced its mainnet launch on Ethereum. The mainnet launch marks a significant milestone in building Morph’s consumer layer, serving as an expansion beyond a typical Layer 2. Morph’s consumer layer directly addresses the root causes of limited blockchain adoption, enabling ecosystem participants to exchange real

The 1-week implied volatility for the pound is at its highest since March last year, indicating that traders are a little nervous ahead of the budget announcement later. Labour will be setting their first budget in 14 years, hoping to meet their election promises and avoiding the chaos that ensued from the Truss-Kwarteng mini-budget back

The Treasury maintained the language in the quarterly refunding announcement that said they didn’t expect a need to raise coupon auction sizes for the next several quarters. This was largely expected was coupled with no surprises for coupon sizes at: $58B in 3s$42B in 10s$25b in 30s Overall the announcement includes $125 billion of refunding

Prior -12.9Economic confidence 95.6 vs 96.3 expectedPrior 96.2; revised to 96.3Industrial confidence -13.0 vs -10.5 expectedPrior -10.9; revised to -11.0Services confidence 7.1 vs 6.6 expectedPrior 6.7; revised to 7.1 Slight delay in the release by the source. Euro area economic sentiment dips a little more in October, dropping to its lowest since April. It reaffirms

Final Q2 GDP was 3.0%Consumer spending (PCE): +3.7% annual rateDurable goods: +8.1%GDP final sales (excluding inventories): +3.0%GDP price index (GDP deflator): +1.8%Core PCE (excluding food & energy): +2.2% vs +2.1% expectedPCE price index 1.5%Greg covered the inflation numbers in more detailBusiness investment (nonresidential fixed investment): +3.3% Contributors and subtractors to the 2.8% growth: Consumption: +2.46%

There are just a couple to take note of on the day, as highlighted in bold. And they are both for EUR/USD at the 1.0775 and 1.0850 levels. The expiries are sandwiching the spot price at the moment with price action this week largely contained in between 1.0780 through to 1.0825. As such, the expiries

Prior 105.5; revised to 104.5 Alongside a softer revision to the month before, it’s a negative take on Swiss economic conditions as we look towards year-end. That’s reflective of the mood in Europe as a whole though. But it doesn’t change much of the SNB outlook at the moment. This article was written by Justin

What are the key technical levels in play as the North American session begins? and why? EURUSD: The EURUSD hit the swing area support yesterday between 1.07609 to 1.07767 and found willing buyers. The price has pushed higher since then rebreaking above a swing level at 1.0810, the broken 61.8% of the move up from

Prior +0.2% The Italian economy surprisingly stagnates in Q3 but the attention today is more on the beat from Germany here. This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

Shares of Super Micro Computer are getting hammered after their auditor Ernst & Young sent a letter of resignation and has begun process of identifying a successor. That’s a big thing as in negative “big thing”. Meanwhile, SMCI does not currently expect any restatements and disagrees with EY’s decision to resign. Yikes. On October 7

Prior quarter 2.8%Advanced Core PCE 2.2% vs 2.1% estimatePCE advanced 1.5% vs 2.5% priorEx food and energy and housing 1.6% vs 2.3% priorPCE services ex Energy and housing 2.6% vs. 3.0% prior The monthly PCE data will be released but the trend is to the downside. The headline PCE is below the 2.0% Fed target.

Fundamental Overview The Nasdaq has been mostly consolidating around the recent highs although it managed to rise into a new high yesterday. The election uncertainty is keeping a lid on the bullish momentum for now. In fact, the election is going to be a major event for the market with a red sweep seen as

German DAX futures -0.2%UK FTSE futures -0.3% US futures are mildly higher though but the mood there is helped by tech, following Alphabet’s earnings beat overnight. For European indices, the slight drop slated for the open continues the tone from yesterday. With month-end shenanigans also a factor to consider, it’s a bit trickier to read

Xsolla, a global video game commerce company, announces plans to launch Xsolla ZK and introduce a digital backpack of virtual items on the blockchain. Xsolla ZK is powered by ZKsync technology and will drive the continuous growth and expansion of Web3 technologies to further develop solutions on the blockchain for the video game industry. Xsolla

OPEC+ plans to slowly reintroduce curbed production in December but a Reuters report said they could delay the hike by one month or more, citing three sources. Brent crude was trading at $71.89 ahead of the report and immediately rose 50 cents. This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

Today’s private oil inventories might provide some support for crude. This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

Today things finally pick up on the data front as we get lots of economic releases. The highlights include the German inflation readings, the UK budget announcement, the Treausury refunding announcement and the US ADP report. We will also see the Q3 GDP report for the Eurozone and the US but, as always, GDP is

Prior -0.1% Surprise, surprise. The German economy manages to avoid a technical recession with Q3 GDP growth coming in better than anticipated. That is pushing up the euro slightly now, with EUR/USD up to 1.0850 from around 1.0830-40 earlier. It still doesn’t quite change the overall picture for the ECB in my view. But this

Fundamental Overview The main culprit for the US Dollar strength lately has been the rally in long term Treasury yields. The yield curve has been bear-flattening which is what you would expect with higher growth and potentially higher inflation expectations. There’s a good argument that the markets have been already positioning for a Trump’s victory

Prior -8.8 This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

Gold hit a fresh record at $2775 earlier today in a series of record highs this year. Bitcoin may finally be joining the party as it tests the March high of $73,803. The high so far is less than $300 from that level, though it should provide tough resistance. Bitcoin is up more than 5%

Prior +0.8% It’s a beat on estimates and once again, the Spanish economy continues to show that it is definitely punching above its weight in contributing to the overall Eurozone performance. On an annual basis, Q3 GDP is seen expanding by 3.4% and beating expectations of a 3.0% reading. This article was written by Justin

Inflation data from Australia for the July – September quarter and for September month. 2.8% y/y headline, below the top of the RBA target band of 2 – 3%. Trimmed means is a core measure, comes in at 3.5% y/y The other measure of core inflation is ‘weighted median’: 0.9% q/q expected 0.8%, prior 0.8%

Fundamental Overview Gold yesterday rallied into a new all-time high following the US data release. Seems like the market focused more on the miss in the US job openings rather than the strong beat in the US consumer confidence report, which is more forward-looking. In the bigger picture, gold remains in a bullish trend as

The quarterly CPI data is viewed as the official inflation rate. The monthly reading is a stopgap, used as an incomplete guide. The headline y/y is expected to dip slightly under the upper end of the 2 to 3% Reserve Bank of Australia target band. There are plenty of caveats on this, the main being

The other state readings released around the same time: Brandenburg CPI +% vs +1.4% y/y priorHesse CPI +1.8% vs +1.2% y/y priorSaxony CPI +% vs +2.4% y/y priorNorth Rhine Westphalia CPI +2.0% vs +1.5% y/y priorBaden Wuerttemberg CPI +2.1% vs +1.4% y/y prior Just take note that the readings here are much higher than anticipated.

The numbers via oilprice.com on Twitter: — Expectations I had seen centred on: Headline crude +2.2 mn barrelsDistillates -1.4 mn bblsGasoline +0.5 mn — This data point is from a privately-conducted survey by the American Petroleum Institute (API). It’s a survey of oil storage facilities and companiesThe official report is due Wednesday morning US time.

1500 GMT / 1100 US Eastern time: Keynote speech by ECB Board member Isabel Schnabel at SAFE-CEPR conference on Euro@25 organised by Leibniz Institute SAFE25 years of existence marks a significant milestone for the Euro. From the ‘greatest monetary experiment’ within living memory, the project has navigated challenges in its infancy, weathered a profound crisis

Prior +1.5%HICP +1.8% vs +1.8% y/y expectedPrior +1.7% The higher readings here reaffirms some bumps in the road in the disinflation process. Core annual inflation also ticked a little higher to 2.5%, up from 2.4% in September. We’ll see how this continues to play out in the months ahead and how much this will affect

A brief summary of a long piece from Reuters on what to expect from the BoJ this week. BOJ meeting concludes Thursday; rates expected to stay unchanged at 0.25%Weekend election loss complicates BOJ’s normalization pathUSD/JPY hit 3-month highs near 153.50 as markets bet on delayed hikes More: BOJ’s in no rush with inflation stable around

Here’s a look at the changes for dollar pairs currently: It is very much a dud with less than 10 pips change across all pairs at the moment. And the ranges for the day are also leaving a lot to be desired, so we might get some extension of that in the session ahead hopefully.

Mark Zandi is chief economist at Moody’s Analytics. On the reasons for steeply rising interest rates he cites: strong economyhigher tariffs, immigrant deportations, and deficit if Trump elected *** Given the super-heated pre-election environment in the US Zandi has come under partisan attack. I posted on him a few weeks back: US economy among the

Prior +0.2% French Q3 GDP comes in at a beat, with household consumption especially showing a marked improvement compared to the previosu quarter. Again, that owes much to the Olympics though so there’s that to keep in mind. Here is the breakdown of the components: This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

In the euro area, October CPI and Q3 GDP figures are going to dominate the agenda. And in the UK, there’s the budget announcement to go through. All that before we get into the stretch of jobs-related data in the US ahead of the non-farm payrolls report on Friday. And then, there’s the BOJ policy

Goldman Sachs Research anticipates a bullish outlook for gold, projecting prices to reach $2,900 per ounce by early 2025, up from a prior forecast of $2,700. This optimism is largely attributed to a surge in gold purchases by central banks, especially in emerging markets. Traditionally, gold prices align closely with interest rate trends—lower rates often

Alphabet is beating on the top and bottom line: EPS $2.12 versus $1.84 estimate Revenues $88.279 versus $86.31 billion The shares of Alphabet is trading up $5.37 or 3.20% at $175.00 Looking at the other major earnings released: Visa (V) Q3 2024: EPS: 2.71 (exp. 2.58) – BeatRevenue: 9.6bn (exp. 9.49bn) – BeatShares are trading

I’d noted this info on Monday but now the pundits are picking it up. POLITICO is a US politics website. In brief: Across battlegrounds … Women account for roughly 55 percent of the early vote, while men are around 45 percent, according to a POLITICO analysis of early vote data in several key states. The

It has been the case for a while now, especially with the manufacturing sector in such a dire state. Here’s the estimates for the Q3 GDP releases in key euro area countries this week: Germany -0.3% q/q (previously -0.1%)France +0.3% q/q (previously +0.3%)Spain +0.6% q/q (previously +0.8%)Italy +0.7% q/q (previously +0.9%; revised to +0.6%) The

Capital Economics argues: “The outcome of the U.S. election won’t have a sizeable impact on most commodity prices over the next few months,” “Instead, differences between the candidates’ views on vehicle emissions, [liquified-natural-gas] exports and foreign-policy stance on Iran could affect oil and [natural-]gas prices over the next five years.”US oil and gas production climbed

Japan economy minister Akazawa spoke late on Tuesday, ICYMI: weak yen can push up prices through higher import costsif wages are not rising as much, that would push down real household income, depress private consumption Akazawa has been reading macro economic textbooks by the sound of it. * The yen has been pressured since the

An out of consensus idea from Dr Shane Oliver, Chief Economist and Head of Investment Strategy at AMP in Australia. Oliver says there is still a prospect of a December 2024 rate cut from the RBA: Oliver’s ‘base case’ is for a February 2025 rate cut from the Reserve Bank of Australia, not December. But

The data is here: Australian Q3 inflation headline 2.8% y/y (expected 2.9%)AUD/USD little changed after the Australian inflation data – minor wobble And, this is unlikely: Australian inflation data – what could drive a December Reserve Bank of Australia rate cut A couple of comments from around the place: Oxford Economics: latest data was what

The price of bitcoin is now trading above $73,000. The high price just reached $73,099 which is the highest level going back to March 14. The all-time record intraday high price reached $73,794. The high closing level is at $73,121. Catalyst for the rise: A Trump victory. Trump has been a big proponent for BitcoinA

If the economy evolves broadly in line with our forecast, we anticipate cutting our policy rate further to support demand and keep inflation on target. I spoke with BNNBloomberg on the Bank of Canada and the loonie earlier today. Watch it here. This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

The UK budget is due later today, Wednesday, October 30, 2024. Commerzbank analysts give a heads up for GBP gains: if the budget combines austerity with hope of tackling long-term investment“This should be positive for the pound as it would strengthen the U.K.’s long-term growth potential”government faces a challenge in facilitating investment so that it

The major US stock indices are closing with mixed results. However, the NASDAQ index is closing at a new all-time record high. It is closing above the high from July at 18647.45. The gains as AMD and Alphabet report after the close. The final numbers are showing: Dow industrial average – 154.06 points or -0.36%

A reminder that the October nonfarm payrolls report could be difficult to interpret. Says Claudia Sahm: Jobs Day will likely be messier than usual with recent hurricanes and a strike weighing temporarily on payrolls. Even with solid underlying growth the headline could look rough.October will likely be tough to watch. More than ever, we must

US JOLTS job openings 7.443M vs 8.000M estimateUS October consumer confidence 108.7 vs 99.5 expectedCase Shiller August home price data +0.4% versus 0.2% expectedUS advance goods trade balance $-108.23 billion versus $-95.9 billion estimateUS wholesale inventories or September -0.1% versus revised 0.2% last monthAtlanta Fed final Q3 GDPNow estimate: 2.8% vs 3.3% priorBOC’s Macklem: We

Macklem is speaking in parliament. Earlier: BOC’s Macklem: We anticipate cutting further if economy follows our forecasts Says now that he is beginning to see some impact of recent rate cuts. Like I said above, maybe seeing what he wants to see. And also maybe saying what the pollies want to hear. For more on

The info from MUFG has been around, but ICYMI. In brief: US dollar will likely rise initially if Trump wins electionTrump’s remarks indicate a higher risk that he will implement inflationary tariffs more quickly than he did during his first term as presidentGiven the rise of the USD during October further gains could be limited,

The market has been patiently waiting for news on Chinese fiscal stimulus after the finance ministry hinted it was coming following a range of moves to boost financial markets. Today in a report from Reuters, we got a strong sense of what’s coming. The report says that after a Nov 4-8 series of meetings, that

The Nasdaq is putting on a brave face as we count down to some major earnings releases. The index is at the highs of the day, up 0.8% on strength from chipmakers and Meta. Another solid gainer is Alphabet as it rises 1.9% to the highest since August 1 as it gets set to report

After ten years of constant development, SimpleFX can proudly celebrate this one-of-a-kind anniversary with a unique event. This year, the platform’s users will have a chance to compete in a trading contest with a $100,000 and 5,000 SFX Coins prize pool! The plan to celebrate with the SFX platform users SimpleFX understands that special milestones

As the North American session begins, what are the key technical levels in play? and why? EURUSD: The EURUSD moved lower to start the US trading day yesterday, only to rebound higher into the European session and the start of the US session. The high prices yesterday moved up to once again test the 200-hour

OpenAI is using AMD chips alongside Nvidia chipscompany has dropped the foundry plans for now due to cost and time needed to build a networkPlans instead to focus on in-house chip design efforts OpenAI has also said that they have reserved 2026 TSMC manufacturing capacity to manufacture the chips Nvidia shares are trading up $1.03

If people cared about the environment as much as U.S. debt, we might have hit net zero emissions by now. But why think about the planet when it’s easier to predict the collapse of the world’s biggest economy? Every week or so, someone expresses deep concern about rising U.S. debt. Recently, Robert Kiyosaki, then Elon

The US treasury will complete the coupon auctions for the week with the sale of $44 billion of 7-year notes at the top of the hour. The six-month averages of the major components of the auction show: Tail 0.1 basis pointsBid to Cover 2.54XDirects (a measure of domestic demand) 17.3%Indirects (a measure of international demand)

With two trading days left in October, USD/CAD has a shot at breaking the monthly closing highs in 2016 and 2020. Much of that will depend on key US economic data on Wednesday and Thursday but even if the loonie hangs on, the outlook is worsening in part due to a new housing measure that

The major European indices are closing the day in the red after all the indices closed higher yesterday. The closing levels are showing: German DAX, -0.25%France’s CAC -0.61%UK FTSe100 -0.80%Spain’s Ibex -0.91%Italy’s FTSE MIB -0.26% In the European debt market: Germany 2.338%, +5.5 basis pointsFrance 3.080%, +7.5 basisUK 4.316%, +6.4 basis pointsSpain 3.035%, +5.1 basis

The US treasury will complete the coupon auctions for the week with the sale of $44 billion of 7-year notes at the top of the hour. The six-month averages of the major components of the auction show: High yield or .215%WI level at the time of the auction 4.235%Tail -2.0 basis points vs 6-month average

Prior was 98.7 (revised to 99.2)Present Situation Index 138.0 vs. 124.3 priorExpectations Index 89.1 vs 81.7 prior This number isn’t as good as it looks as it surprisingly fell to 98.7 compared to 104.0 expected in the prior report. That said, it was the strongest gain since March 2021 and there is also this: “The

The NASDAQ index is trading up 96 points or 0.52% at 18663.79. That takes the price above the July 10 high closing level of 18467.58. On Friday, the price high traded above that level intraday but failed. In trading yesterday, the high price also moved above that high closing intraday and failed (closing near the

The story is that a Pres. Trump is more digital currency friendly and that has the price of Bitcoin higher for the 3rd straight day. The price has moved from a low on October 24 at $65,000 to the high price reached today at $72,756 or +11.93%. Since the September 6 low, the price is

The EURUSD has been trending lower since peaking in mid-September. Rates moved higher. The markets seem to be pricing in a Trump victory with higher deficits/higher inflation from tariffs and tax cuts. Later this week – ahead of the eletion the US jobs report, the most recent PCE data will be released. Next week in

In their latest forecasts today, DIHK is slashing their outlook on the German economy and anticipating a 0.2% contraction for this year. As for 2025, they are expecting zero growth in the economy in what will be a third year without any real growth in GDP. “We are not just dealing with a cyclical, but

Fundamental Overview Copper got stuck in a consolidation just above a key support zone as the market failed to rally on the recent PBoC’s rate cuts. Today, we got the news that China is looking to approve a fresh fiscal package next week worth over 10 trillion yuan and that it’s expected to be bolstered

In the hierarchy of economic indicators, JOLTS and consumer confidence are about even. Normally, I would rank consumer confidence higher as it’s more of a forward looking indicator. However, more recently Fed officials have frequently cited falling job openings in the JOLTS report as a reason to cut rates and that indicator is now back

Prior month 0.2% (revised from 0.1%) Advance Wholesale Inventories Wholesale inventories for September were estimated at an end-of-month level of $905.0 billion, down 0.1 percent from August 2024 Up 0.5 percent from September 2023 Advance Retail Inventories Retail inventories for September were estimated at an end-of-month level of $824.3 billion, up 0.8 percent from August

Prior month 8.040M revised lower to 7.861M Job openings 7.443M vs 8.000M estimate. Lowest since January 2021Vacancy rate 4.5% versus 4.7% last month (revised from 4.8%)Quits rate 1.9% versus 2.0% (revised from 1.9%) last month Separations rate x.x% versus 3.1% last month Details: Job openings are down 1.9 million over the yearJob openings rate is

UBS says not to be too concerned about record high gold prices and the 30%+ rise so far this year: prices will continue to rise in the months ahead UBS forecast $2850 by mid-2025. In brief, UBS cite gold continuing to benefit from rate cuts: Federal Reserve easing cycle is still at an early stage

Prior 64.86k; revised to 64.96kNet consumer credit £1.2 billion vs £1.3 billion expectedPrior £1.3 billion Mortgage approvals rose to the highest level since August 2022 but on net, individual mortgage debt fell by £0.3 billion, to £2.5 billion in September. Meanwhile, annual consumer credit growth dipped slightly to 7.5% – down from 7.7% in August.

Iranian revolutionary guards threaten Israelis with surprises they have never seen beforeUK September mortgage approvals 65.65k vs 65.00k expectedChina mulls approving fresh fiscal package worth over ¥10 trillion next weekDIHK warns that German economy is set to stagnate in 2025European equities hold higher to start the sessionWhat are the main events for today?BlackRock CEO says

Iranian revolutionary guards threaten Israelis with surprises they have never seen before.Threaten to deliver more “crushing” strikes to Israel in coming days. Crude oil is ticking higher on the news. I have a feeling that the Trump trade we’ve been seeing in other markets have also spilled into the crude oil market on higher supply

Wharton finance professor says Fed could pause next week if NFP comes in hotJapan finance minister Kato closely watching FX moves including those drive by speculatorsJapan DPP head says BOJ should avoid big policy change now b/c real wages standing stillNo Fed speakers this week, or next. Its FOMC blackout time ahead of November 6

Sector Overview The US stock market presented a varied picture today, as healthcare and software applications sectors showed resilience, while consumer electronics and energy faced challenges. Technology: Microsoft (MSFT) edged up 0.15%, but Apple (AAPL) slipped by 0.24%, reflecting mixed investor sentiment in tech.Healthcare: A standout performer, with Eli Lilly (LLY) gaining 0.58% and Abbott

Fundamental Overview The main culprit for the US Dollar strength lately has been the rally in long term Treasury yields. The yield curve has been bear-flattening which is what you would expect with higher growth and potentially higher inflation expectations. There’s a good argument that the markets have been already positioning for a Trump’s victory

htThe JOLTs job opening data will be released at the top of the hour. The expectations are for 8.000M which is a touch lower than the 8.040M last month. For your guide, the expectation of last month was for 7.660M. So the openings were much stronger than expectations last month and are expected to be

Prior month 0.3%Case Schiller month-on-month home price index +0.4% versus 0.2% estimateNot seasonally adjusted month-on-month -0.3% vs 0.0% last monthYoY NSA +5.2% versus +5.1% estimate. Prior month 5.9% In a separate report from the Office of Federal housing, Monthly home prices for the month of August rose 0.3% versus 0.2% (revised) last monthHome Prices YoY

Revenue index +9.2 vs +10.1 priorEmployment -0.2 vs +2.0 priorWages and benefits 16.3 vs 12.3 priorRetail sales survey -11.4 vs -8.9 prior Comments in the report: Utilities We feel that the pace of general business has increased on the positive side. Professional, scientific and technical services It’s very hard to tell if the delays in

The final Q3 tracker is out from the Atlanta Fed and it’s a sizeable downgrade to 2.8% from 3.3%. The official report is due out tomorrow. “After this morning’s Advance Economic Indicators release from the US Census Bureau, the nowcast of the contribution of net exports to third-quarter real GDP growth fell from 0.04 percentage

Prior month $-94.22 billion Advance International Trade in Goods International trade deficit was $108.2 billion in September, up $14.0 billion from August Exports of goods for September were $174.2 billion, $3.6 billion less than August exports Imports of goods for September were $282.4 billion, $10.4 billion more than August imports This is likely a result

Solana storage scaling solution Xandeum has confirmed details of its forthcoming token launch and storage-enabled liquid staking program. On October 29, 16:00 UTC, the XAND token will officially launch, offering the Xandeum community a way to participate in the network and earn rewards. The XAND token and LST launch will be accompanied by the first

Yields continue to move higher as markets adjust to the potential for a Trump Presidency next week, and it is making the stocks pause. The futures are currently implying: Dow industrial average, -188 points S&P index, -12.0 pointNASDAQ index, -6.25 points Looking at the US yield curve: 2 year yield 4.170%, +3.0 basis points5-year yield

In brief, the argument from the analysts at Bank of America is bullish seasonality: if S&P 500 is up YTD to end of October (not there yet, but looks likely!) the index is nearly 80% of the time for the November-December periodmedian returns of 4% and 4.27% respectivelypattern occurs even in election years … November

The USD is moving higher in early US trading. Yields continue to extend to the upside. Concerns about a Trump presidency with higher deficits are a tail wind. The EURUSD is running to the downside in early US trading after all and below its 100 hour moving average of 1.08034 and finally finding some momentum

Of note, we’ll have five of the ‘Magnificent 7’ reporting earnings this week. Alphabet will be the one kicking things off in the day ahead, being accompanied by smaller releases from Visa, AMD, and McDonald’s. Then tomorrow, we’ll get to Microsoft and Meta. And on Thursday, it will be Apple and Amazon. The latter releases

This via Nate Silver at 538. Tips Trump to win, taking the Electoral College with 271 votes vs. Harris at 267. Thats not a big margin, but its enough, and it fits with what other polls are saying. I’ll scout around for other reputable polls too, but Silver is in line with what I’ve been

S&P 500 futures are flat as we look towards the start of European morning trade later. It’s a quiet one for now, following the slight advance from yesterday. Higher yields continue to be a key consideration for stocks at the moment. But for trading this week, it’s going to be a rather tricky one. We

Luckin Coffee is China’s largest coffee chain. The reports are that it is planning to enter the US market and undercut rivals including Starbucks with its low-priced drinks. FT with the info (gated). The firm has not commented on the reports. Starbucks This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

Fundamental Overview The JPY started the week on the wrong foot following the Japanese elections over the weekend where the ruling party lost the majority. The main culprit for the US Dollar strength has been the rally in long term Treasury yields. The yield curve has been bear-flattening which is what you would expect with

At the bottom of the hour, the US advance goods trade balance for September will be released with deficit $-95.9 billion expected. That is a larger deficit compared to last months $-94.22 billion. Wholesale inventories for September will also be released with expectations of +0.1% (was +0.1% last month as well. Later at 10 AM,

Macklem is participating in a fireside chat at a Toronto event so headlines could trickle out. There hasn’t been much to digest though since last week’s BOC meeting. We will have to discover the neutral rate over time This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

Nikkei (gated) have the report. In brief: Toyota Motor and Japan’s Nippon Telegraph and Telephone (NTT) will invest 500 billion yen ($3.26 billion) in research and development to create artificial intelligence software to improve self-drivingthe software will use AI to anticipate accidents and take control of the vehicleaiming to have a working system ready by

Appearance by Bank of Canada Governor Tiff Macklem and Senior Deputy Governor Carolyn Rogers at House of Commons Standing Committee on Finance from 1930 GMT, 1530 Eastern time The Bank of Canada cut rates last week: Bank of Canada rate decision: 50 basis point cut, as expectedBank of Canada is out of touch, “didn’t grasp

The Canadian dollar is threatening to hit the worst levels since May 2020 in what would be a major range breakout. Aside from brief periods during covid and the oil price collapse in 2016 (both less than a month long), this would be the lowest level since 2003. I expect this period of weakness to

Fundamental Overview The main culprit for the US Dollar strength lately has been the rally in long term Treasury yields. The yield curve has been bear-flattening which is what you would expect with higher growth and potentially higher inflation expectations. There’s a good argument that the markets have been already positioning for a Trump’s victory

It is being reported that Beijing is looking to approve next week the issuance of over ¥10 trillion in extra debt over the next few years in order to revive economic conditions. And the package will be expected to be further bolstered if Trump wins the US election. For some context, China’s top legislative body

Eurostoxx +0.4%Germany DAX +0.4%France CAC 40 +0.6%UK FTSE +0.2%Spain IBEX -0.2%Italy FTSE MIB +0.5% US futures were also up a touch in the past hour but have surrendered that advance to start the session. S&P 500 futures are now flat. For European indices, the optimism holds for now but keep an eye out on the

I posted earlier on the talks to bring the Democratic Party for the People (DPP) into coalion with the LDP and Komeito: Japanese PM Ishiba is reportedly seeking a coalition with DPP I wondered aloud if DPP would demand an end to BOJ rate hikes as a price for its support. Seems so, yeah. Japan

One of the key trade dialogues between the UK and China was the Joint Economic and Trade Commission (JETCO). That was meant to facilitate bilateral trade and investment between the two countries but was put on ice by the last UK government following China’s actions on Hong Kong back in 2022. It is being reported

Fink argues that “it is fair to say the Fed will make at least a 25 bps rate cut by the end of 2024”. And that falls within the forecast made by his firm, arguing for a 25 bps to 50 bps move before the year is done with. However, Fink warns that “we have

Japan finance minister Kato: Won’t comment on forex levelsImportant for currencies to move in stable manner reflecting fundamentalsClosely watching fx moves, including those driven by speculators, with a higher sense of vigilance *-*- This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

Japan’s unemployment rate fell in September, and the jobs-to-applicant ratio rose. Japan September jobs report: Unemployment rate 2.4% (expected 2.5%) Good news for the labour market in Japan. And the hot take is that it supports rising wages and hence Bank of Japan rate hikes. The only niggle is Japan’s unemployment rate is never too

German DAX futures +0.2%UK FTSE futures +0.2% The gains are mild with US futures also keeping lightly changed overall for now. There’s not much to it with the market mood as investors will be eyeing the more important events in the days ahead. For European stocks, there will be CPI and GDP data to deal

The latest indication on inflation from the UK are pointing towards further rate cuts: UK inflation indicator: BRC Shop Price Index fell faster in October While this is not official inflation data it does, at the margin, point towards continuing rate cuts. Indeed, overnight news indicates this is the consensus expectation: Economist poll of the

The European session is pretty empty today on the data front. The main highlights will be the US Job Openings and the US Consumer Confidence data in the American session. The market is focused on the US election now, so although the data will be market moving, it has less of an influence. Nevertheless, with

Citi on the Bank of Japan meeting this week (October 30 – 31). The market view is for no change to policy at this meeting. Citi, too, is tipping no policy change. we share the widely held view that policy will be left unchangedconsensus is a rate hike in either December or January Citi are

Prior -21.2; revised to -21.0 Despite worries surrounding the economy, Germany’s consumer climate climbs to its highest level since April 2022 in the latest reading here. Looking at the details, both income expectations and the willingness to buy showed an improvement for the second time in a row. But despite a pick up in the

There are plenty of events on the economic calendar this week but still just not today, at least for Europe. Major currencies are keeping little changed for the most part, with USD/JPY down slightly on the day as traders continue to digest the political developments in Japan. Meanwhile, the antipodeans are a touch lower owing

Wharton finance professor Jeremy Siegel says that the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) could leave Fed Funds unchanged (announcement due November 7) if there is a substantial upside surprise to the nonfarm payrol headline on Friday (November 1) Siegel spoke with CNBC last week: “If we get a strong labor market report for the month

It is being reported by Reuters that China president Xi Jinping had asked US president Joe Biden to change the language that the latter uses when discussing its position on Taiwan independence. The request came about last year, in which China wanted the US to explicitly say that they “oppose Taiwan independence” rather than mention

Komeito is the coaltion partner of the LDP. Komeito leader Keiichi Ishii lost his seat in the election, he’ll be resigning party leadership. Makes senses.! I posted on Japan’s election multiple times yesterday. ICYMI: ForexLive Asia-Pacific FX news wrap: Yen, oil both sharply lower This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

There is just one to take note of on the day, as highlighted in bold. It’s the same one for EUR/USD as seen yesterday, at the 1.0800 level. The expiries today are relatively large and could provide a draw/magnet for price action in the session ahead. That could very well keep the price range more

The People’s Bank of China set the onshore yuan (CNY) reference rate for the trading session ahead. USD/CNY is the onshore yuan. Its permitted to trade plus or minus 2% from this daily reference rate.CNH is the offshore yuan. USD /CNH has no restrictions on its trading range.A significantly stronger or weaker rate than expected

From our glossary; The ‘blackout’ policy from the Federal Reserve limits the extent to which Federal Open Market Committee participants and staff can speak publicly or grant interviews. The period begins the two Saturdays preceding a Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting. — The upcoming Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting is Wednesday and Thursday,

Goldman Sachs analysts on why US stocks are set to gain for the rest of the year: seasonals – Monday starts “the best trading period of the year for U.S. equities also during election years” end of October means less selling from mutual funds and pensionsUS corporates return to buying – GS says the largest

People’s Bank of China USD/CNY reference rate is due around 0115 GMT. The People’s Bank of China (PBOC), China’s central bank, is responsible for setting the daily midpoint of the yuan (also known as renminbi or RMB). The PBOC follows a managed floating exchange rate system that allows the value of the yuan to fluctuate

ECBs de Guindos is on the wires saying: Price outlook surrounded by substantial risksInflation to decline to target next yearDomestic inflation remains high though moderatingRisks to growth outlook elevated and tilted to the downside. Mixed comments from deGuindos. This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

Data on Japan’s labour market for September 2024, the unemployment rate and jobs-toapplicat ratio. I guess when you think about it, with inflation under 2% and full employment achieved … and you still lose the election. Pretty harsh 🙂 This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

Bank of Korea Governor Rhee will very likely cut 2024 GDP forecastsees growth to be around 2.2%-2.3%staying cautious on FX movementdon’t think South Korea is short of ammunition to stabilise the forex market if needed Bank of Korea is wary of a depreciating won. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

Broader US indices close near lows for the dayECBs De Guindos: Price outlook surrounded by substantial risksWhy the Canadian dollar doesn’t have a leg to stand onCrude oil futures settle at $67.38BOC’s Macklem: Productivity is key to raising Canada’s living standardsUS treasury auctions off $70 billion of 5-year notes at a high yield of 4.138%US

I posted extensively on the election and the yen response yesterday, ICYMI: ForexLive Asia-Pacific FX news wrap: Yen, oil both sharply lower I posted this yesterday, too. Where we’re at: Japan’s lower house has 465 seats233 are required to form a majorityGoing into the election the ruling LDP combined with its coalition partner (which gave

The GBPUSD buyers had their shot to make a move today. After bouncing off a key support level at 1.2938, the price surged higher, breaking above the 100 hour MA, 100 day MA, and 200 hour MA. However, despite achieving this technical breakthrough, the buyers failed to sustain momentum. On two separate occasions, the price

ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence for the week drops to 86.4 prior week was 87.5 ANZ see a bright spot: on a four-week moving average basis, confidence is at a 20-month high — Below 100 is net pessimistic. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

Another quiet sort of session ahaed for economic data, the jobs report from Japan for September is about it. Its unlikely to move the yen upon release. Eyes on headlines re politics, verbal intervention (if any) and the Bank of Japan though. We have an inflation indicator from the UK a little after that. Again,

Good morning, afternoon and evening all. Any charts, technical analysis, trade ideas, thoughts, views, ForexLive traders would like to share and discuss with fellow ForexLive traders, please do so: This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

BRC Shop Price Index in October 2024 fell at the fastest pace in more than three years: -0.8% y/y expected -0.5%, prior -0.6%eighth time in nine months that the pace of price growth has weakened British Retail Consortium data. BRC sound a note of caution: “Households will welcome the continued easing of price inflation,” “But

The US broader indices are closing the day higher but at the lows for the day. The S&P is closing up 15.40 points or 0.27% at 5823.52. The high for the day was up 34.80 points The low for the day was up 14.96 pointsThe Nasdaq is closing up 48.58 points or 0.26% at 18567.19.

Crude oil futures are settling the day at $67.38. That is down -$4.40 or -6.13%. The low reached $66.94. The high price reached $68.84. The declines were in response to the limited Israeli retaliatory strike on Iran, which avoided oil facilities. However, there is other fundamental influences which can support or weaken prices going forward.

Last week, Goldman Sachs warned that a rise in 10-year yields to 4.30% could create a negative feedback loop with stock markets. We’re getting close as 10-year yields rise 5.6 bps today to 4.286%, which is the highest since late July. The latest leg higher comes after a 2-year sale tailed by 0.8 bps. We

German DAX futures +0.4%UK FTSE futures +0.1% A positive open slated for later and an extra hour of sleep over the weekend for European traders. What’s not to like? The positive open here comes amid a more optimistic tone in US futures as well, with S&P 500 futures up 0.5%. The upbeat mood comes in

The AUDUSD closed below its 200-day moving average on Friday at 0.6628. In trading today, the price remains below that 200-day moving average. Stay below that level, keeps the sellers more in control. In the Asian session today, the price initially moved lower reaching 0.65789. That took the price within four pips of the 61.8%

High yield 4.138 WI yield st the time of the auction 4.122 Tail 1.6 basis point 6-auction avg. 0.5bps Bid-to-Cover 2.39X vs 6-auction avg. 2.37x Dealers 14.2% vs 6-auction avg. 14.4% Directs (a measure of domestic demand) 9.50% vs. 6-auction avg. 17.6% Indirects (a measure of international demand) 76.4% vs 6-auction avg. 68.0% AUCTION GRADE:

Fundamental Overview Crude oil was one of the biggest movers today as the price gapped sharply lower following the Israel’s retaliation over the weekend. The reason for the drop is of course the lack of attacks against energy facilities. That’s something that’s been already known, so we might see a pullack now that this story

Deutsche Bank is out with a piece examining historical lessons for markets ahead of the November 5 US election. The first takeaway is that markets may not react as dramatically to a Trump victory as they did in 2016, since it wouldn’t be the same kind of surprise – betting markets currently give him a

The second coupon auction of the day will take place at 1 PM ET, when the US treasury auctions off $70 billion of five year notes. Earlier today, the treasury sold $69 billion of 2-year notes with a tail of 0.8 basis points. The bid to cover was less than the 6-month average. The overseas

The USDCAD is consolidating after reaching new highs going back to August 5. In trading today, the high price extended to 1.39057. The low price extended to 1.38813. That’s only a a narrow 24 – 25 trading range. That is well below the month-long trading range of 55 pips. There is room to roam but

Prior was -9.0Output (production) +14.6 vs -3.2 priorNew orders -3.7 vs -5.2 priorEmployment -5.1 vs +2.9 priorOutlook -3.3 vs -6.4 priorPrices paid for raw materials +16.3 vs +18.2 priorPrices received +7.4 vs +8.4 priorWages +23.5 vs +18.5 prior Comments in the report: Chemical manufacturing Interest rate impacts continue to put pressure on the overall construction

Prior was 3.520% This auction was earlier than usual today because the Treasury is also selling 5s at 1 pm ET. The glut of supply in a single day is much for the market to digest and in 15 of the past such instances, there have been 11 tails. We got the same today with

ICYMI, China’s central bank, the People’s Bank of China, has to use it to trade with primary dealers in open market operations on a monthly basisPBCO says it’ll maintain a “reasonable abundance of liquidity in the banking system and further enrich the central bank’s monetary policy toolbox”operations will be carried out once a month, with

The People’s Bank of China set the onshore yuan (CNY) reference rate for the trading session ahead. USD/CNY is the onshore yuan. Its permitted to trade plus or minus 2% from this daily reference rate.CNH is the offshore yuan. USD /CNH has no restrictions on its trading range.A significantly stronger or weaker rate than expected

Rate cuts by year-end Fed: 43 bps (95% probability of rate cut at the upcoming meeting) 2025: 125 bps ECB: 29 bps (86% probability of 25 bps rate cut at the upcoming meeting) 2025: 136 bps BoE: 40 bps (93% probability of rate cut at the upcoming meeting) 2025: 121 bps BoC: 27 bps (92%

The pair is still up 0.4% on the day at around 152.90 but has fallen back below the opening gap of 153.23 upon the return from the weekend. The opening gap higher owes to the Japan election result. More on that from earlier: Japanese yen in the spotlight after weekend election The losses in the

Jamie Dimon has been banging the inflation drum for the past year and has been wrong but with yields ticking up again, he has more of an audience. He says now that ‘inflation may not go away so quickly.’ This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

Domestic sight deposits CHF 449.4 bn vs CHF 454.1 bn prior Swiss sight deposits fell again in the past week, moving back in line with levels seen about two to three months back. SNB taking their foot off the pedal? Here’s the trend: This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

Goldman Sachs anticipates potential for a more aggressive rate cut from the RBNZ in November, with a 75bps cut on the table, although this is unlikely to push AUD/NZD significantly higher. Despite a dovish outlook, the New Zealand dollar’s downside may be limited by already-pessimistic market positioning. Key Points: Goldman now forecasts two further rate

Citi lowers its Q4 2024 Brent forecast to US$70/bbl (from $74/bbl)Bank of Canada Governor Tiff Macklem is speaking on Monday, October 28, 2024US election – Trump speaker calls Puerto Rico a pile of garbage, immediate backlashReports that McDonald’s (MCD) is to resume selling Quarter Pounders in all restaurantsPBOC sets USD/ CNY reference rate for today

Alphabet shares traded to a high today at $168.75 near the open. However, at session highs, the price was also testing its 100-day moving average at $168.79. Sellers leaned against that level and the price wandered lower. A news headline that Meta- reportedly has developed an AI search engine that would lesson reliance on Google

Fundamental Overview Bitcoin has been rallying steadily in the last few weeks as Trump winning odds continued to soar in betting markets. The price eventually consolidated around a key trendline as the market might want to wait for the election result now before breaking out. A Trump victory is seen as bullish for Bitcoin given

It’s the first time in 15 years that Japan’s ruling coalition loses its majority, with the LDP seeing their number of seats erased from 247 coming into the election to just 191 seats. Together with their coalition partner, Komeito, they only managed 209 seats this time around and well short of the 233 seats needed

All 72 economists surveyed by Reuters expect the Bank of England to lower rates to 4.75% next week but what happens at the subsequent meeting on December 19 is far less certain. Of the 72, there are 46 who predict no change and 26 predict a cut. The majority expecting a hold runs counter to

The week begins quietly on Monday, with no major economic events scheduled for the FX market. Be mindful of the daylight saving time shift in Europe, which may affect trading schedules. Bank of Canada Governor Tiff Macklem will speak at a fireside chat about the Canadian economy at The Logic Summit in Toronto on Monday.

The Japanese yen is hogging most of the attention to start the week, following the results of the weekend election. More on that here: ForexLive Asia-Pacific FX news wrap: Yen, oil both sharply lowerJapanese yen in the spotlight after weekend election However, just be wary that bond yields are still a key focus point for

The USDCHF moved higher early in the Asian session and the momentum higher, moved the price above its 100 day moving average at 0.8687. Momentum could not be sustained, however, and the price started to rotate back to the downside. In the early US session that momentum has continued with the day’s low prices from

Today is going to be kind of a synthetic Sunday as we have an empty calendar. Things will pick up tomorrow as we start to get some top tier economic releases which will culminate with the US NFP report on Friday. I would say though that the market’s focus is now on the US election,

Reports that Boeing is planning a US$15bn+ capital raising – as soon as Monday (US time). This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

EURUSD: Key Levels: 100-hour MA: 1.08014 (current support) 200-hour MA: 1.08244 (current resistance) Recent Price Action: EURUSD moved above 100-hour MA on Thursday Touched and slightly broke 200-hour MA on Friday, but couldn’t sustain momentum Fell back below 100-hour MA to 1.07813, then rebounded Currently trading between 100-hour MA and 200-hour MA Current Outlook: Awaiting

Sector Overview The technology sector shines today, with notable gains in both consumer electronics and semiconductors. Apple (AAPL) is up 1.23%, reflecting strong investor confidence. Nvidia (NVDA) also enjoys a positive move with a 0.56% increase, highlighting sustained interest in semiconductor stocks. Meanwhile, Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) surges by 1.48%, showcasing its solid position as

CNN reporting that MCD is to resume selling Quarter Pounders in all restaurants. Beef patties in Colorado have tested negative for E.coli.MCD had temporarily halted Quarter Pounder sales in a dozen U.S. states last week after an outbreak linked to the burgersno trace of the E. coli bacteria were found in McDonald’s Quarter Pounder beef

Here’s a snapshot of dollar pairs as we look to get European morning trade underway today: USD/JPY is still higher by 0.6% but is well off earlier highs at the end of Asia trading around 153.50-60 levels, with the pair now easing back towards its opening gap higher of 153.23 on the day. The yen

S&P 500 futures are up 32 points, or 0.55% while Nasdaq futures are up 0.7%, or 148 points. An open at those levels will put the Nasdaq just short of the record high, which it flirted with on Friday before retreating. This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

Japan’s ruling coalition lost its majority in an election over the weekend, which leaves the world’s fourth-largest economy facing the prospect of minority government, or minor parties acting as linchpins in coalition. USD/JPY is above 153 on the Japanese election result – yen plungeMonday morning open levels – indicative forex prices – 28 October 2024

As the North American session begins, what are the key technical levels and why, are in play? EURUSD: The EURUSD moved above the 100-hour MA on Thursday and extended to the 200-hour MA on Friday. The pair’s prive moved to and then just above the 200-hour MA (green line on the chart below), but could

This’ll thin out trade in the kiwi somewhat. AustraliaJapanHong KongSingaporeChina are all in as normal. This little guy lives in the UK, daylight saving there ended on the weekend. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

There is just one to really take note of on the day, as highlighted in bold. That being for EUR/USD at the 1.0800 level. Alongside the 100-hour moving average nearby at 1.0802 currently, it is likely to keep a lid on price action in the session ahead. That especially with higher yields continuing to underpin

According to this wonderful matrix from Carson Investment Research, October 28 is the best day of the year for the S&P 500, historically. Now I don’t put much weight in daily averages because they’re highly influenced by unique events but Goldman Sachs also notes that “Today marks the first day of the open window period

Fundamental Overview The bullish momentum in gold weakened recently as the pressure from the rising real yields started to weigh on the market. We haven’t got any meaningful catalyst in the last week but there’s been a good argument that the markets have been already positioning into a Trump victory. In the bigger picture, gold

Discretion is the better part of valour. This is going to be a volatile, uncertain week as we build up towards the US election next Tuesday. But it’s not just that, it’s a blockbuster week for economic data. It starts light today with the Fed thankfully in the blackout period and only the lowly Dallas

Headlines: Yen losses ease up a little in European morning tradeJapanese yen in the spotlight after weekend electionJapan parliament reportedly to convene special session to vote on prime minister postCrude Oil Technical Analysis – Israel spares Iran’s energy facilitiesWeekly update on interest rate expectationsECB’s Wunsch: It is premature to discuss December policy decisionSNB total sight

USD/JPY highs circa 153.30 (EBS). The yen has dropped after the Japanese election, latest is here: Japan’s ruling coalition lost its majority in an election – yen lower to open the week Earlier: USD/JPY is above 153 on the Japanese election result – yen plungeMonday morning open levels – indicative forex prices – 28 October

Prior 4 After a brief respite in September, the UK retail sales balance heads back into negative territory for the month of October. The decline is marginal but it’s not a good start to Q4, which is typically seen as one of the hotter seasons in the run up to the year-end holidays. This article

The South Korean finance minister says will swiftly respond to any excessive forex market volatilities. I’m guessing we’ll hear some sort of similar comments out of Japan today given the slump in the yen: Japan’s ruling coalition lost its majority in an election – yen lower to open the week Earlier: USD/JPY is above 153

Eurostoxx +0.4%Germany DAX +0.4%France CAC 40 +0.6%UK FTSE -0.1%Spain IBEX +0.6%Italy FTSE MIB +0.6% The DAX looks poised to chase a run at fresh record highs once again amid the more optimistic start here. This comes with US futures also holding higher on the day. S&P 500 futures are up 0.5% currently. The more positive

Clocks in Europe the UK went back an hour on Sunday October 27 for the end of daylight saving. US clocks will change next weekend, Sunday November 3. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

China’s top legislature, the 14th NPC Standing Committee (NPCSC), will convene for its twelfth session from November 4 to 8. The vice finance minister says further details will be announced after this. China to step up counter-cyclical fiscal policyChina confident in achieving around 5% growth targetDetails of fiscal stimulus will undergo a legal processWill be

It is reported that the incumbent ruling bloc is arranging to convene a special session in parliament to vote on the prime minister post. And that this will likely be arranged for 11 November i.e. two weeks from today. Just a bit of a heads up as Ishiba’s fate is now hanging in the balance

Yen weakened immediately in early hours Asia. Summary here: Japanese ruling coalition loses majority in election; USD/JPY reacts with volatility Nikkei gained: Weaker yen = stronger Nikkei relationship holding so far – Monday, October 28, 2024 USD/JPY update: This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

1730 GMT/1330 Eastern time – Bank of Canada Governor Tiff Macklem will be attending a fireside chat at The Logic Summit conference in Toronto it appears to me the topic will be economy and policy-related, so comments should be pertinent to trades. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

European Central Bank policy rate-setter Knot spoke on Saturday, watering down expectation of a December ECB rate cut just a little: “It is important that we keep all options open. Retaining full optionality would act as a hedge against the materialization of risks in either direction to the growth and inflation outlook,” “We believe that

This serves as just a bit of a reminder and a heads up to the session ahead. For those unaffected, this will mean European markets opening an hour “later” than the time last week. The bright side at least is that there is a lesser lull in the handover to North America trading but only

An official at the Bank of Korea says: on alert for any widening of financial market volatilities, will thoroughly monitor —- Eyes are on Japan and the yen: Japanese ruling coalition loses majority in election; USD/JPY reacts with volatility But, earlier from SK: Asia FX verbal intervention comments – not on the yen! (South Korea)

No urgency in further accelerating easing of monetary policyTemporary, small undershoot of inflation target due to energy price swings is acceptable There’s still plenty of data to come between now and then, so the ECB will definitely look to bide their time instead of pre-committing to anything. This article was written by Justin Low at

China’s National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) slip[ped these out over the weekend: industrial profits September, -27.1% y/y prior -17.8% in August earnings -3.5% in the January – September period prior +0.5% (January-August period) according to the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS). That plunge for industrial profits in September is the biggest monthly decline all year.

Info comes via Reuters, updating the Citi outlook for oil. Lowers 0-3 month Brent oil target price to $70/bbl (from $74/bbl)Lowers Q4 2024 Brent forecast to $70/bbl (from $74/bbl)Recent Israel military action is unlikely to be seen by the market as leading to an escalation that impacts oil supplyWe expect a lower geopolitical risk premium

The US election is very tight with different polls showing different results. Alienating a large swath of voters so close to the election does seem to be risky. A speaker at Trump’s rally in New York on Sunday referred to Puerto Rico as a “floating pile of garbage”: “There’s literally a floating island of garbage

The People’s Bank of China says it is to conduct an outright reverse repo operation today, Monday, October 28, 2024 and will conduct monthly outright reverse repo operations once a month with a tenor of less than one year PBOC says its to maintain and ensure sufficient liquidity This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan

The Israeli attack on Iran seems designed to minimise the chance of an all-out war: Israel strikes on Iran look designed to minimize the chance of retaliation Oil prices getting slammed lower on futures markets to open the new week. Brent down nearly $4 to circa $72WTI down over $4 to under $68 This article

The yen is continuing to lose ground, with USD/JPY back to its earlier high. Japan’s Nikkei has jumped, up nearly 2%. The weaker yen / higher Japan stocks relationship is holding for now. Earlier: Japanese ruling coalition loses majority in election; USD/JPY reacts with volatility Nikkei, hourly candles: This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan

Good morning, afternoon and evening all. Any charts, technical analysis, trade ideas, thoughts, views, ForexLive traders would like to share and discuss with fellow ForexLive traders, please do so: This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

People’s Bank of China USD/CNY reference rate is due around 0115 GMT. The People’s Bank of China (PBOC), China’s central bank, is responsible for setting the daily midpoint of the yuan (also known as renminbi or RMB). The PBOC follows a managed floating exchange rate system that allows the value of the yuan to fluctuate

USD/JPY is around 153.00, well up from late Friday levels circa 152.30 but down from a high circa 153.30 an hour or so ago. The news, ICYMI, is that the ruling coalition (LDP/Komeito) lost their majority. Japan’s ruling coalition lost its majority in an election – yen lower to open the week Earlier: USD/JPY is

Good morning, afternoon or evening to all ForexLive traders and welcome to the start of the new FX week. As is usual for a Monday morning, market liquidity is very thin until it improves as more Asian centres come online … prices are liable to swing around, so take care out there. Note that is

USD/JPY is just above 153.00, a 70 or so point jump from its late Friday level. The Japanese election in summary: Japan’s ruling Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) and its coalition partner Komeito have, combined, lost their majorityLDP had a majority in its own right going into the election, gone now of courseLDP and Komeito have

Well, the Japanese election is nail-biter: USD/JPY is above 153 on the Japanese election result – yen plunge Yen has been slammed lower, with USD/JPY above 153.00. As for the economic calendar, its empty today. Yne update: This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

Sun: Japanese LDP ElectionMon: Japanese Jobs Report (Sep)Tue: German GfK (Nov), US JOLTS (Oct)Wed: UK Budget, Australian CPI (Sep), Spanish Flash CPI (Oct), US ADP (Oct), German Flash GDP (Q3) and Prelim CPI (Oct), EZ Prelim GDP (Oct), US GDP Advance (Q3), Japanese Retail Sales (Sep)Thu: BoJ Announcement and Outlook Report, Chinese NBS PMI (Oct),

Weeks of speculating about how Israel would respond to Iran’s attacks had markets worried about strikes on energy infrastructure or something that would spark a broader war. Instead, the attacks look to be measured and US President Biden immediately called for a halt to escalation. Reports from Iran say the attacks caused only limited damage

UPCOMING EVENTS: Tuesday: Japan Unemployment Rate, US Job Openings, US Consumer Confidence.Wednesday: UK Budget, Australia Q3 CPI, Germany CPI, Eurozone Q3 GDP, US ADP, US Q3 GDP.Thursday: Japan Industrial Production and Retail Sales, Australia Retail Sales, China PMIs, BoJ Policy Decision, Switzerland Retail Sales, French CPI, Eurozone Flash CPI, Eurozone Unemployment Rate, Canada GDP, US

The Fed blackout starts at midnight but the week ahead is packed with market-moving data, decisions and earnings reports. Here’s a day-by-day preview of the week ahead: MONDAY, OCTOBER 28 US data: Dallas Fed manufacturing activityUK: Lloyds Business BarometerJapan: Jobless rate, job-to-applicant ratioECB’s Wunsch speaksEarnings: Ford, Waste ManagementUS Treasury Quarterly borrowing estimates, 2yr ($69bn) and

A strong gap higher at the open quickly turned into a day of disappointment for bulls. After surging nearly 50 points in early trading to hit 5860, sellers stepped in and methodically unwound those gains throughout the session. The late morning and early afternoon saw particularly steady selling pressure, though buyers did attempt to defend

The New York Times released a poll today showing Trump and Harris deadlocked. That’s bad news for the Harris campaign as she had previously been leading. Combined with betting odds shifting in Trump’s favor and it’s starting to feel like we’ve hit a tipping point. The bond market has been selling off steadily today, which

A report in the WSJ could cool the crypto market. DOJ and Treasury investigating Tether over potential sanctions violations and illicit activityManhattan US attorneys leading criminal probe into possible links to drugs, terrorism, hackingTreasury mulling sanctions against world’s most traded crypto ($190B daily volume)Comes as Tether steps up compliance, recently froze 1,850 wallets worth $114MInvestigation

US UMich October final consumer sentiment 70.5 vs 69.0 expectedUS September durable goods orders -0.8% versus -1.0% expectedCanada August retail sales +0.4% vs +0.5% expectedCanada Sept new housing price index 0.0% vs 0.0% priorBaker Hughes US oil rig count -2BOC Macklem: If population grows slows more than assumed, headline GDP will be lowerCNN: Trump 47%.

Gold is impressive once again today as it rises $8 to $2743 after earlier falling as low as $2717. The rebound virtually assures that it will break the weekly closing record of $2719 set just a week ago. It’s been record after record for gold and on Wednesday it touched the best-ever at $2758 before

Having returned to low inflation, Canada is in a better place to deal with new economic shocksThere’s a fair amount of uncertainty on how quickly Canada’s new immigration curbs kick in, BOC will be watchingEffect of changes in assumptions about population growth will have a bigger impact on our GDP forecast that our inflation forecastIf

Many Chinese banks have cut mortgage rates today (cuts were announced earlier this month)Federal Reserve Bank of Boston President Susan Collins speaking on FridayUS Vice President Kamala Harris will not appear on Joe Rogan’s programBank of Canada Governor Tiff Macklem speaks on Friday – Q&AJapan’s economy minister says the weak yen has various impacts on

The latest I’ve seen re polling is from Asahi earlier this week, showing that the ruling LDP could lose up to 50 of its 247 seats in the lower houseLDP coalition party Komeito could see its seats fall under 30233 is needed to govern, the incumbent LDP may fall short of this if polling is

The risk mood is slowly deteriorating after a strong start. The S&P 500 is up just 10 points after rising is much as 50 pips. The trend has been steady and I haven’t seen any headlines that would explain the moves. I’d chalk it up to angst around the election. AUD/USD is now trading at

As the November 5 US presidential election approaches, Credit Agricole analyzes the potential impacts on the US dollar, noting improving odds for a Donald Trump victory and the subsequent market reactions. Key Points: The rising likelihood of a Donald Trump win has led to renewed interest in “Trump trades,” contributing to a rally in the

The NZDUSD has moved lower this week, and in the process moved below a swing area between 0.6031 and 0.60387. That swing area was retested yesterday on a corrective move higher and found willing sellers. On the downside, the low price reached earlier today stalled at 0.5986. That was just short of the high of

The European session is pretty empty on the data front with just the German IFO as the main highlight. The IFO index is similar to the German Composite PMI as they are correlated, so it shouldn’t be a big deal. In the American session, we get some low tier indicators like the US final UMich

Oil rigs -2Natural gas rigs +2 This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

The GBPUSD moved up to test the 200 hour MA (green line) at 1.29986. THe high price reached 1.29977, just below that level. The subsequent move to the downside has seen the price move lower and toward the 100-day MA and 100-hour MA. Both of those MAs come in at 1.29683. The dualing MAs increase

Shares of Nvidia are up 2.4% today while Apple has gained 0.7%. That’s enough to nudge Nvidia past Apple and re-claim the throne as the world’s most-valuable company, a title it briefly held earlier this year. What NVDA hasn’t been able to do is sustainably hold above the June high of 143 but it’s trying

Wow Nellie. We have a horse race. The final CNN poll has Trump and Harris deadlocked at 47%. Earlier today NYTimes/Siena College poll in its final poll also showed a dead heat as well. Other polls show similar close results: Election Day: November 5. This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

Sector Overview: Unpacking the Technology Surge Today’s market is marked by an impressive performance from the technology sector, with many key players showing significant gains. Semiconductor stocks like Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) are up by 1.30%, demonstrating renewed investor confidence. Similarly, Nvidia (NVDA) posts a gain of 0.47%, continuing its upward trend amidst positive sentiment

Prior 95 French household confidence eased slightly in October, with an increase in fears surrounding unemployment weighing. The reading there crept higher from 26 in the previous month to 31 this month, just below the long-term average of 33. It also marks the highest reading since May 2021. This article was written by Justin Low

Adam was interviewed by Reuters on Thursday, not happy with the Bank of Canada: “The Bank of Canada cut 50 basis points but it didn’t grasp the challenges facing the Canadian economy,” “The market might be looking further out and saying, ‘this isn’t enough. Rates are still too high for where the economy is now.’”

Despite recent poll shifts favoring Trump, market pricing remains cautious, according to Deutsche Bank. The extent to which a Trump win is being priced in remains cautious despite discussions about “Trump trades” in the market. DB illustrates this in both the FX market via the US dollar and a basket of the S&P 500 companies

The Federal Reserve blackout starts at midnight ET but it looks like it will begin about 12 hours before that with a light calendar of Fed speakers today. The lone one on the schedule is Boston Fed President Susan Collins speaking in a fireside chat about the Boston Fed’s wide ranging work. I wouldn’t expect

The EURUSD moved higher in the early US session and tested its 200-hour moving average currently at 1.08342. Although the price ticked above the MA line on a few hourly bars, the momentum stalled. The buyers turned to sellers, and the price has moved back to the 100-hour MA (blue line) at the 1.08056. The

Lagarde has been all over the media this week and the message from all ECB members this week is that disinflation is unfolding more quickly than anticipated. The market is pricing is pricing in a 15% chance of a 50 bps cut in December, which is down from 25% early in the week. Risks to

The USDCHF continues to consolidate near highs in up and down trading: Key resistance: There is he resistance at the 100 day moving average at 0.86904. The high price for the week on Wednesday reached 0.86854. Getting above those levels is more bullish. Key support: Close support now comes in at the rising 200-hour moving

Good morning, afternoon and evening all. Any charts, technical analysis, trade ideas, thoughts, views, ForexLive traders would like to share and discuss with fellow ForexLive traders, please do so: This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau is fighting for his political life and yesterday he came as close as he ever has to admitting a mistake. His government dropped immigration targets for the next three years by around 20%. Next year’s target will instead be 395,000 new permanent residents, and that will fall to 380,000 in

The AUDUSD moved lower earlier this week, and in the process fell below its 100-day moving average at 0.66952. A corrective bounce higher on Tuesday saw sellers lean against that level. Going forward, that level is a key resistance target. The subsequent fall midweek took the price below its 200-day moving average at 0.6628. It

UK GfK October consumer confidence -21.0 expected -21.0, prior -20.0 GBP little changed, around 1.2972 This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

The NASDAQ index is soaring as yields back off. Durable goods were better than expected with ex Boeing numbers showing strength. The Michigan consumer sentiment came in better with inflation expectations lower than last month at 2.7% (versus 2.9%). The NASDAQ index is now up 243 points or 1.32% at 18658.80. The index is also

The USDCAD continues to consolidate near highs in up and down trading: Key resistance: There is topside resistance at 1.38643 (the high price yesterday extended to 1.38678). Key support: Swing area support comes between 1.38337 and 1.38475. The price low today has *e stalled within that swing area keeping the buyers in control.. Targets on

TGIF. The USD is mixed in early US trading as the market prepares for US durable goods data at 8:30 AM ET (est -1.0% with core at -0.1% est). Canada will release their retail sales data at the same time (est 0.5%). Later at 10 AM the University of Michigan revised sentiment will be released

Eurostoxx -0.1%Germany DAX -0.2%France CAC -0.1%UK FTSE flatSpain IBEX -0.1%Italy FTSE MIB flat It’s just one of those days really. There’s not much happening in markets so far on the day, with little appetite all around. The rise in bond yields is taking a breather in the last few sessions and that’s keeping things in

Fundamental Overview It looks like the market is taking some breather after an incredible rally in the US Dollar. This week was pretty empty on the data front, and we haven’t got any meaningful catalyst. The main culprit for the US Dollar strength has been the rally in long term Treasury yields. The yield curve

Headlines: A quiet session so far in European morning tradeGold pares weekly advance as buyers lose some near-term momentumWeekly update on interest rate expectationsECB’s Kazaks says doesn’t see a case for rates to fall below neutralGermany October Ifo business climate index 86.5 vs 85.6 expectedEurozone September M3 money supply +3.2% vs +3.0% y/y expectedFrance October

Closing changes in Europe on the day: Stoxx 600 flatGerman DAX flatFrance CAC -0.1%UK FTSE 100 -0.2%Spain IBEX -0.3%Italy’s FTSE MIB +0.1% On the week: Stoxx 600 -1.2%German DAX -1.0%France CAC -1.5%UK FTSE 100 -1.3%Spain IBEX -1.0%Italy’s FTSE MIB -1.3% The DAX hit a record last week but was reeled back in this week before

Prior was 0.0% There are some dark days ongoing for new Canadian condos and suburban housing projects. It’s not everywhere but there are certainly some that are bleeding. This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

Prior was 68.9Current conditions 64.9 vs 62.7 prelimExpectations 74.1 vs 72.9 prelim1-year inflation 2.7% vs 2.9% prelim5-year inflation 3.0% vs 3.0% prelim Expect a big swing shortly in the sentiment of about half of Americans. In the aftermath of this report, US equities are at the best levels of the day with the S&P 500

People’s Bank of China USD/CNY reference rate is due around 0115 GMT. The People’s Bank of China (PBOC), China’s central bank, is responsible for setting the daily midpoint of the yuan (also known as renminbi or RMB). The PBOC follows a managed floating exchange rate system that allows the value of the yuan to fluctuate

This is more or less what happens when market players don’t get their fix. It’s all about economic data these days and there hasn’t been any ones this week that stood out. The focus turned towards the bond market and rising yields but even that has cooled off in the past few sessions. 10-year Treasury

The Atlanta Fed GDPNow tracker for Q2 was trimmed to 3.3% from 3.4% today. The economist consensus for Wednesday’s advanced report is 3.0%. After recent releases from the US Census Bureau and the National Association of Realtors, the nowcast of third-quarter real gross private domestic investment growth decreased from 3.2 percent to 2.7 percent. That’s

11:00 Federal Reserve Bank of Boston President Susan Collins participates in a fireside chat on the Boston Fed’s portfolio of work, supporting the Fed’s Congressional mandates The last we heard from Collins was in early October, arguing the case for a further 50bp of rate cuts by the end of the year. That view may

Prior month 0.0% revised sharply lower to -0.8%Durable goods orders -0.8% versus 1.0% expectedPrior month ex transportation 0.5% revised to +0.6%Ex Transportation 0.4% versus -0.1% expectedNon-Defense cap Ex air 0.5% versus 0.1% expected. Prior month 0.2%Durable goods ex defense -1.1% versus -1.3% last month (revised sharply lower from -0.2%) Ex transportation has seemed to have

In the kickstart video, I take a technical look at the three major currency pairs – the EURUSD , USDJPY and GBPUSD. EURUSD: Key Levels: 100-hour moving average: 1.0807 (support) 200-hour moving average: 1.0836 (resistance). Get and stay above is needed to increase the bullish bias A break higher would target the 200-day moving average:

Rate cuts by year-end Fed: 43 bps (95% probability of rate cut at the upcoming meeting) 2025: 134 bps ECB: 30 bps (82% probability of 25 bps rate cut at the upcoming meeting) 2025: 143 bps BoE: 41 bps (89% probability of rate cut at the upcoming meeting) 2025: 127 bps BoC: 29 bps (85%

RBC on the Bank of Canada 50bp rate cut, analysts at the bank expect another 50bp cut at the December meeting: cut was in response to more and more signs that both the economy and the jobs markets are slowing down more than is needed in order hit 2% inflation targetthis cut will not the

The changes are light in the new day but the antipodeans are slightly lagging in the major currencies space. It’s not so much the dollar but perhaps some light softness in the yuan is also weighing. In any case, it is bringing into focus some key technical levels for AUD/USD right now. Looking to the

The Wall Street Journal reports its latest national survey, finding that Trump is leading Harris by 2 percentage points, 47% to 45%. The journal caveats with: within the polls’ margins of error, meaning that either candidate could actually be ahead I haven’t seen many polls, apart from the ‘betting markets’ that show a much larger

Cryptocurrency is increasingly becoming more and more integrated into the overall global economy, and the need for reliable, secure, and efficient payment solutions has never been greater. For businesses looking to start taking advantage of digital currencies, CryptoProcessing is leading the charge, offering a platform that not only simplifies crypto transactions as a whole, but

Prelim was +0.5%Sept preliminary +0.4%Ex-autos -0.7% vs +0.3% expectedPrior ex-autos +0.4%Ex-autos and gas -0.4% vs +0.6% priorSales were up in four of nine subsectors Prior to this report, RBC looked at its cardholder data and said spending was “nothing short of abysmal”. Given that, the growth in this series is surprising but it’s concentrated in

Prior +2.9% Broad money growth continues to pick up in the euro area, reaffirming the trend over the past year or so. This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

Fundamental Overview It looks like the market is taking some breather after an incredible rally in the US Dollar. This week was pretty empty on the data front, and we haven’t got any meaningful catalyst. The main culprit for the US Dollar strength has been the rally in long term Treasury yields. The yield curve

Prior 85.4Current conditions 85.7 vs 84.4 expectedPrior 84.4Expectations 87.3 vs 86.8 expectedPrior 86.3 It’s a beat all around as German business morale picks up in October, even the outlook index. That being said, all of this has to really translate more into the hard data for it to convince of better fortunes going into next

With the drop today, gold is down 0.1% on the week and looks to end its latest weekly winning streak at two. There’s still US trading to follow later though but there are a couple of things to note with the latest decline here. On the daily chart, it might not seem like much: That

Headline CPI 1.8% y/y, down from September expected 1.9%, prior 2.2% Core 1.8% y/y, and ditto, down from September expected 1.7%, prior 2.0%this is ex-food Core-core 1.8% y/y, underlying inflation up from September expected 1.8%, prior 1.6%ex-food and energy __________ *** Coming up from Japan: Japan election this weekend, LDP might lose out, need support

Nomura say that if the yen comes under pressure next week after the election japanese authorities could step in with intervention efforts to support the currency. The first step is verbal intervention. We’ve had some weak comments along these lines already from Japan this week, and some comments just a little less weak. Links to

We need to scrutinize whether US optimism can be sustainedOptimism about US seems to be broadeningWhen looking at fallout from weak yen on inflation, we must look not just at yen moves but factors that are driving them like perception of the US economyImplied volatility is still quite high, markets are unstablePolicy makers continue to

easyMarkets proudly announced its recognition as the “Leading Broker of the Year” at the prestigious Forex Expo Dubai 2024. This landmark event, a cornerstone in the global Forex community, provided easyMarkets with a vibrant platform to connect with enthusiastic traders, unveil dynamic promotions, and host the legendary football icon Roberto Carlos. The recognition as “Leading

Fundamental Overview It looks like the market is taking some breather after an incredible rally in the US Dollar. This week was pretty empty on the data front, and we haven’t got any meaningful catalyst. The main culprit for the US Dollar strength has been the rally in long term Treasury yields. The yield curve

Wall Street Journal with the article,: Musk has forged deep business ties with U.S. military and intelligence agencies, giving him unique visibility into some of America’s most sensitive space programs. SpaceX, which operates the Starlink service, won a $1.8 billion classified contract in 2021 and is the primary rocket launcher for the Pentagon and NASA.

Japan September 2024 PPI Services (Corporate Services Price Index) 2.6% y/y expected 2.7%, prior 2.7% Earlier from Japan: Tokyo area October inflation data: Headline 1.8% y/y (prior 2.2%) And, ahead: Japan election this weekend, LDP might lose out, need support from other parties to governPotential impact of Japan and US Elections on BoJ intervention, and

1830 GMT / 1430 US Eastern time: Bank of Canada Governor Tiff Macklem will address journalists and answer questions in-person and virtually at the sidelines of the IMF meeting *** The Bank of Canada cut by 50bp this week: Bank of Canada is out of touch, “didn’t grasp the challenges facing the Canadian economy”RBC analysts

German DAX futures -0.1%UK FTSE futures flat There’s not much in it with US futures also keeping rather muted on the day. That’s not giving traders much to work with to start the session with major currencies also still fast asleep for the time being. USD/JPY did briefly ease to a low of 151.45 but

Chinese media outlet Global Times with a summary of cuts that came into effect today: many Chinese banks, including Industrial and Commercial Bank of China and Agricultural Bank of China, have cut some of their existing mortgage ratesMortgage rates that currently exceed loan prime rate (LPR)-30 basis points (BP) will be reduced uniformly to LPR-30BPAfter

US equities on Thursday: Dow industrial average lower. S&P and the NASDAQ index move to the upside UBS say to expect more volatility ahead, through to the election. Analysts there nominate 4 reasons: higher yields expectations for a more modest pace of Federal Reserve interest rate cuts geopolitical concerns election uncertainty And point to the

USD/JPY is up from its earlier lows after all the inflation data from Japan this morning: Tokyo area October inflation data: Headline 1.8% y/y (prior 2.2%)Japan September PPI Services (Corporate Services Price Index) 2.6% y/y (expected 2.7%) In Tokyo, core consumer prices rose 1.8% y/y (exp 1.7, prior 2.0), a number below the BoJ’s 2%

The dollar cooled off alongside bond yields yesterday and that’s setting for a mixed mood towards the end of the week. Tech shares led gains in Wall Street but stock futures are looking more muted in the new day. As a whole this week though, equities are still down with a watchful eye on bond

New Zealand ANZ Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence for October 2024 drops to 91.2 prior 95.1fell 4 points in October following three months of improvement Inflation expectations were unchanged at 3.8%: This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

Japan Economy Minister Akazawa: Won’t comment on forex levelsImportant for currencies to move in stable manner reflecting fundamentalsWeak yen has various impact on economy Meek comments these. USD/JPY is around 151.92 or so. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

US weekly initial jobless claims 227K vs 242K expectedUS October flash S&P Global services PMI 55.3 vs 55.0 expectedBOE’s Ueda: Recent yen fall driven partly by optimism over US economic outlookECB’s Lane: Disinflation “well on track” to hit target in 2025Justin Trudeau says he will lead Liberals into the next electionKC Fed manufacturing index 0

Fundamental Overview It looks like the market is taking some breather after an incredible rally in the USDJPY pair. This week was pretty empty on the data front, and we haven’t got any meaningful catalyst. The main culprit for the US Dollar strength has been the rally in long term Treasury yields. The yield curve

UK Prime Minister Starmer says Brits who get additional income from shares or property don’t count as ‘working people’. Bloomberg with the report, saying that Starmer is hinting at tax rises on investors. – The UK is in dire fiscal straits, so tax rises are coming one way or another. I could probably say that

Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey is a panellist at the G30 39th Annual International Banking Seminar ‘The future of money and payments’at 1520 GMT, which is 1120 US Eastern time on Saturday, October 26, 2024 The topic does not sound conducive to comments on the economy or policy, but who knows? Bailey spoke mid-week:

No need for the ECB to contemplate such a scenarioThat would require weaker baseline and substantial undershooting of inflation target I guess we know which side of the debate that he is on. This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

The Dow industrial average index has been down for 4-consecutive days. For the S&P index, snapped a three-day losing streak with a move higher today. The NASDAQ index will tire on Monday lower on Tuesday higher on Wednesday and again higher today. The final numbers are showing: Dow industrial average -140.5 points or -0.33% at

The Bank of Japan is eyeing two elections. Firstly, this weekend in Japan: Japan election weekend – if the yen weakens after, the BOJ could step in with intervention And secondly, the US election on November 5. MUFG caution that the Bank of Japan may veer away from intervention to support the yen ahead of

There are a couple to take note of on the day, as highlighted in bold. The ones for EUR/USD are seen at the 1.0800 and 1.0820 levels. The ones at the former held price action yesterday before rolling off and the ones today should keep downside price action more limited in between the key levels.

U.S. Vice President Kamala Harris will not appear on podcaster Joe Rogan’s program scheduling did not line up, spokesperson Ian Sams said on MSNBC Rogan is popular with young men, a demographic I thought Harris might be keen to speak with. Not this time though. Joe, if you are reading this, and you have a

Citi’s head of global wealth Andy Sieg spoke with CNBC: bullish U.S. equitiesexpects rally after election uncertainty has gone “There’s going to be a relief rally that is most likely to happen. We saw it in 2016, we saw it in 2020” “… relief rally, it’s uncertainty leaving the market, being replaced by some certainty

The People’s Bank of China set the onshore yuan (CNY) reference rate for the trading session ahead. USD/CNY is the onshore yuan. Its permitted to trade plus or minus 2% from this daily reference rate.CNH is the offshore yuan. USD /CNH has no restrictions on its trading range.A significantly stronger or weaker rate than expected

The EURUSD is making a technical break into the close as it moves above its 100-hour moving average for the first time since September 30. That level comes at 1.08129. Getting and staying above that moving average is a win for the buyers. The next target comes against the 200 hour moving average at 1.08423.

Medium-term Lending Facility (MLF) 700bn injected1 year2% rate 789bn mature This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

BOJ Ueda is on the wires saying: Optimism over U.S. economic outlook seems to be broadening somewhat We need to scrutinize further whether optimism over U.S. outlook is sustained BOJ still can afford to spend time scrutinising risks Recent yen falls driven partly by optimism over U.S. economic outlook When looking at fallout from weak

Deutche Bank is out with a critical reminder today that the US government is spending far more than it takes in annually. In 2023: Total Outlays (Spending): $6.13 trillionTotal Receipts (Revenue): $4.44 trillionDeficit: $1.69 trillion To get that back into balance, you need to either 1) raise taxes very much or 2) cut spending drastically.

Tokyo area inflation data is due Friday, Japan time: National-level CPI data for this month will follow in about three weeks, it takes longer to gather and collate the national data.Tokyo CPI is a sub-index of the national CPIIt measures the change in prices of goods and services in the Tokyo metropolitan areaIts considered a

Japan’s Finance Ministry’s Vice Finance Minister for International Affairs Atsushi Mimura finance minister Kato met US Treasury Secretary Yellen on ThursdayKato and Yellne discussed recent FX moves in their meetingSays Japan and the US agreed to communicate closely on FXwe have recently seen one-sided, sharp fx movesdesirable for FX moves to reflect fundamentalswe will be

The NASDAQ index is trading near session highs as trades look to retest its 50-hour moving average currently at 18418.93. The price has reached 18413.38 so far. The index is probably up 125 points or 0.68%. Yesterday, the price fell below the 50-hour moving average (orange line) and the 100-hour moving average (blue line), but

Jibun Bank S&P Global PMI Flash / Preliminary for October 2024 for Japan – slumping from the previous month: Composite 49.4, first contraction in four mnnths Not a good survey: factory activity contracts for the 4th straight monthNew orders decreased across manufacturing and servicesPoor demand conditions in the domestic economy, and new orders from abroad

In the above video, I speak to the technicals that are driving the AUDUSD in trading today. The buyers had their shot. Sellers are taking back control. Can they keep the momentum going?. Below is a summary of those technicals. AUD/USD Technical Analysis Key Break and Reversal Yesterday, the AUD/USD broke below its 200-day Moving

Mark your calendars! MENA’s most popular online trading event – iFX EXPO Dubai 2025 – returns to the region, with the latest instalment promising to be the biggest and best one yet. Taking place between January 14-16, 2025, at the Dubai World Trade Centre, the 2+ day exhibition is one of the largest B2B and

Sector Overview The stock market heatmap today reveals fascinating sector dynamics. Notably, Tesla (TSLA) soared by 13.00%, leading gains in the consumer cyclical sector, while technology giants exhibited mixed results. Technology Sector: Microsoft’s (MSFT) slight gain of 0.19% contrasts with Apple’s (AAPL) dip of 0.70%, reflecting uneven performance within tech stocks. Nvidia (NVDA) managed an

The existing home sales yesterday came in weaker. The new home sales data today came in stronger. Existing home sales account for about 80% of home sales in the US. Today, the Freddie Mac 30 year mortgage rate rose to 6.54% from 6.44% last week. This is highest level since August 1 week. The good

Yesterday’s Price Action Yesterday, the NZD/USD followed the USD’s upward momentum, breaking below the swing area support between 0.6031 and 0.60387. This move propelled the pair to a low of 0.59976, just shy of the psychologically significant 0.6000 level. Today’s Market Dynamics Today, the price rebounded, retesting the swing area resistance (0.6031-0.60387), but sellers leaned

The Liberal Party behind Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau tried to force him out this week, or at least 20 MPs did, but the move looks like a failure. They held a meeting yesterday and told him to make up his mind by Monday. He reportedly told caucus he would take some time to reflect

Latest underlying inflation measures hovering around 1.9% to 2.8%, down significantly from peak range of 3.4% to 7.5%Core inflation (ex food & energy) down to 2.7% in Sept vs 4.5% a year agoPersistent and Common Component of Inflation measure at bottom of range at 1.9% in Sept – has been around 2% since end of

The remarks from Japan were nearly an hour ago, beginning with Deputy Chief Cabinet Secretary Kazuhiko Aoki: Japan official says watching for speculative FX moves Followed by more forthright comments from Kato: Japan finance minister Kato says Rapid moves seen in recent FX market USD/JPY did dip towards 152.60 and just beneath but its only

As a reminder, it was also “probable” that the ECB would’ve paused in October. And look at how things played out instead. It’s all about the data at this stage and we’ll get a first test of the ECB’s resolve from the PMI figures later today. The ECB will only be meeting next on 12

The euro is at the highs of the day as it rebounds following three days of selling. The gains are mostly driven by the US dollar slide as it retraces following a long run. Treasury yields are down today with US 10s lower by 5 bps to 4.19%. Zooming out further, the euro has dug

There are quite a number on the board for the day, as highlighted in bold. The first ones are for EUR/USD at the 1.0780 level through to 1.0800. That might keep price action locked in for a while until we get to the euro area PMI data later. If there is downside surprises to the

US stocks are pointed to open higher with S&P 500 futures up 0.5%. A big tailwind is coming from shares of Tesla, which are up 14% pre-market after posting better Q3 numbers than expected. For the broader economy, the comments from UPS were positive as it beat on earnings and shares are up 7% premarket.

Collective wage agreements in Germany were up 6.2% y/y between January and AugustThese findings do not fundamentally call into question the expected disinflation processBut labour market situation is of great importance for the speed and extent of disinflationGDP likely shrank again in Q3 but should avoid a significant and broad-based decline in output Just a

1300 GMT/0900 US Eastern time: Bank of England MPC member Catherine Mann speaks at panel discussion:at the Reinventing Bretton Woods Global macro economy in the world ‘Financial system in a new world’, Washington DC 1975 GMT/1545 US Eastern time Mike Gill Memorial Lecture by Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey at the CFTC Bank of

I think people are taking some money off the table ahead of the election. Stocks are falling despite lower Treasury yields. This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

Japan’s Deputy Chief Cabinet Secretary Kazuhiko Aoki has not shifted USD/JPY much at all with his comments: No comment on FX levelsDesirable for currencies to move stably reflecting economic fundamentalsClosely watching FX moves with a sense of urgencyGovt watching forex moves closely including for speculative moves This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

Manufacturing PMI 42.6 vs 40.8 expected and 40.6 prior.Services PMI 51.4 vs 50.6 expected and 50.6 prior.Composite PMI 48.4 vs 47.6 expected and 47.5 prior. Key findings: HCOB Flash Germany Composite PMI Output Index(1) at 48.4 (Sep: 47.5). 2-month high. HCOB Flash Germany Services PMI Business Activity Index(2) at 51.4 (Sep: 50.6). 3-month high. HCOB

€STR futures are showing odds of a 50 bps rate cut to be ~20% currently. But as per money market pricing yesterday, those odds went up to as high as 40% following this report here. I’d say traders are pricing in something somewhere in between that, and perhaps closer to the latter than the former

Prior was 0.716m (revised to 0.709m)Sales up 4.1% vs -2.3% prior Earlier today, Whirlpool warned about a soft housing market. “General housing market… is still in a very soft spot. And that’s — we all know, is ultimately driven by mortgage rates. But then the pre-election consumer sentiment is just not good,” said CEO Marc

Data from earlier is here: South Korean Q3 GDP comes in well under estimates: +0.1% q/q (vs. +0.5% expected) A Bank of Korea official with remarks: Growth in IT exports slowingWill need to examine whether there is change in growth trend for next economic forecasts in November There are many factors raising uncertainty over exportsThis

Economic weakness suggests we could get to 2% inflation earlier than end-2025We should not remain in restrictive territory when we get to targetServices weak, industry not recovering Someone in Europe gets it. This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

Final Sept reading was 55.2Manufacturing 47.8 vs 47.5 expectedPrior manufacturing was 47.3 priorComposite 54.3 vs 54.0 prior These numbers are a touch hot, highlighting once again that the US economy is fine. Commenting on the data, Chris Williamson, Chief Business Economist at S&P Global Market Intelligence said: “October saw business activity continue to grow at

Eurostoxx +0.3%Germany DAX +0.2%France CAC 40 +0.4%UK FTSE +0.4%Spain IBEX -0.1%Italy FTSE MIB +0.3% For European indices, they not only have to deal with overall equities sentiment on the day but also PMI data in the next hour. So, look out for that. In the meantime, US futures are keeping a little higher at the

The USDCAD experienced a decline in the European and early North American sessions but rebounded strongly after testing support near 1.3813, its earlier weekly floor. This upward swing has brought the pair back to the swing area between 1.38337 and 1.38475, with the price momentarily reaching 1.3852 and encountering resistance. Currently, buyers are in control,

1345 GMT / 0945 US Eastern time Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland President Beth Hammack welcome remarks before the “Inflation: Drivers and Dynamics 2024” event hosted by the Center for Inflation Research at the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland and the European Central Bank Hammack is the sole Fed speaker I have on the calendar.

Prior was -18Composite index vs -8 prior This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

The inaugural Finance Magnates Annual Awards (FMAA) Gala kicked off last night at Lemon Park Venue in Nicosia, Cyprus, drawing some of the biggest name companies and executives in the industry. The black tie event was powered by AWS and constituted the highest standards of both transparency and excellence in the financial services arena. After

The major US stock indices are trading mixed with the broader indices (S&P and NASDAQ) higher. The Dow industrial average is lower. The Dow industrial average is reacting to sharp declines in: IBM: -6.70%Honeywell: -4.44%Boeing: -2.02%. Boeing machinists rejected a new labor contract that included wage increases of 35% over four yearsVerizon: -2.11% A snapshot

In the above video, I take a technical look at the USDCAD after the 50 bp cut yesterday. That move took the price higher and outside a key swing area, but could not sustain momentum. However, the decline today is trying to hold support at an earlier base level this week. That level will be

Closing changes in Europe: Stoxx 600 flatGerman DAX +0.4%France CAC +0.1%UK FTSE 100 +0.2%Spain IBEX flatItaly’s FTSE MIB +0.2% European stocks turned lower alongside the S&P 500, which opened strongly but is now up just 0.1%. This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

The USDCHF has been trading higher since September 30, and after breaking outside of the “Red Box” on October 4. The price moved up to a swing area and then above the 38.2% retracement during last week’s trading. On Monday this week, the price corrected down to retest the 38.2% retracement at 0.86318 and found

Prior -35 UK factory order book balance holds in negative territory in October, keeping not much changed to the month before. The volume of new orders, measured quarterly, declined to -11 from +1 previously and that hints at softer sentiment with the reading being the weakest since October 2020. This article was written by Justin

People’s Bank of China USD/CNY reference rate is due around 0115 GMT. The People’s Bank of China (PBOC), China’s central bank, is responsible for setting the daily midpoint of the yuan (also known as renminbi or RMB). The PBOC follows a managed floating exchange rate system that allows the value of the yuan to fluctuate

Services PMI 51.8 vs 52.4 expected and 52.4 prior.Manufacturing PMI 50.3 vs 51.4 expected and 51.5 prior.Composite PMI 51.7 vs 52.6 expected and 52.6 prior. Key Findings: Flash UK PMI Composite Output Index(1) at 51.7 (Sep: 52.6). 11-month low. Flash UK Services PMI Business Activity Index(2) at 51.8 (Sep: 52.4). 11-month low. Flash UK Manufacturing

Info comes via Reuters UK car output fell for the seventh consecutive month in September 20.6% decline y/yEV production fell 37% in September Society of Motor Manufacturers and Traders (SMMT) cite: factories wound down production of current models to retool for new zero-emission vehicles (ZEV)drop also partly due to last year’s strong performance, which was

It’s odd for her to take such a consistently hawkish stance with that kind of view. Inflation news has been goodServices prices still have a long way to goDeceleration in prices might not quite get us to 2% inflation target in medium term This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

Fundamental Overview Crude oil basically erased the entire rally first triggered by the Iranian missile attack against Israel in the first days of October. We are now back to square one as the market awaits the key catalysts in the next few weeks. In the big picture, central bank easing generally leads the manufacturing cycle,

In the above video, I speak to the technicals that are driving the USDCHF in trading today. Below is a summary of those technicals. Market Overview The USD/CHF begins the day with a relatively narrow 21-pip trading range, significantly below its average monthly range of 53 pips (39% of normal). This subdued volatility makes it

The major US stock indices are tumbling to new lows. Dow industrial average is down 580.31 points or -1.35% at 42344S&P index is down 80.43 point toward -1.37% at 5770.88NASDAQ index is down 396 points or -2.13% at 18177.64. Technically, the NASDAQ index is moving toward its rising 200 hour moving average at 18115.01. The

EUR/USD Technical Analysis On Monday, the pair stalled at the 1.0870 area (100-hour MA and 200-day MA convergence), initiating the current downtrend. This convergence increased the falling 100-hour MA’s importance going forward. Yesterday, the EUR/USD extended its decline, breaking below the 1.07767 level (August 1 low). This move triggered a further decline to 1.07605, but

I spoke with Kitco News yesterday to discuss several major themes moving markets right now, from BRICS expansion to pre-election positioning and the broader macro backdrop for the US dollar. We talked about how the US faces mounting challenges with debt levels exceeding $35 trillion and deficits running at nearly 7% of GDP despite strong

more to come This snapshot from the ForexLive economic data calendar, access it here.The times in the left-most column are GMT.The numbers in the right-most column are the ‘prior’ (previous month/quarter as the case may be) result. The number in the column next to that, where there is a number, is the consensus median expected.