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Services inflation is still slightly higher than I would preferPrudence and caution have a premium to them, we should continue in that mannerI don’t feel at the moment the need to rushWe need to think like a long-distance runner No rush but the signs are pointing to at least a 25 bps move in December

It’s a quiet one to start the week and also in terms of market moves so far. The dollar is keeping steady but failed to advance gains at the end of last week, and is seen little changed now. EUR/USD is still holding above 1.0500 while USD/JPY saw a tumble back under 155.00 but is

China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC) is the regulator of the securities industry in the country. Its said it’ll be expanding the scope of stock eligible to trade via Stock Connect. Shanghai-Hong Kong Stock Connect is one: a mutual market access program through which investors in each market can trade shares on the other market directlylaunched

Prior month 223.4K revised from 223.8K Housing starts annualized 240.8K vs 240.0K estimate This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

It’s going to be a slow day in terms of data releases with just a couple of low tier indicators. In terms of interest rates expectations, we are now in a kind of a limbo as the despite some hot inflation readings and a less dovish Powell, the market continues to see three rate cuts

Gold is up over 1% on the day and starting to close back in on testing the $2,600 mark once more. The bounce here comes as the precious metal looks to snap a run of six straight days of losses, after having ran into a test of its 100-day moving average (red line) last week:

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German DAX futures +0.2%UK FTSE futures +0.1% It’s a mild bounce after the drop on Friday, with US futures also seen up slight today. S&P 500 futures are up 0.3% but all eyes this week will be on Nvidia earnings, which will come after the close on Wednesday. This article was written by Justin Low

The Chicago Fed Pres. Austen Goolsbee is giving me opening remarks Financial Markets Group fall conference and says: Sees concentration of treasury clearing as a risk Needless to say, giving opening remarks is generally not a platform to give details about the economy or monetary policy. Nevertheless, if Goolsbee is around a microphone he tends

Prior month 43NAHB housing market index for November 46 versus 43 last month. Anything under 50 is considered negativeCurrent conditions +2 to 49Expectations +7 to 64Buyer traffic +3 to 32Housing market index is and it’s highest level since April This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

Headlines: USDJPY Technical Analysis – The market looks fine with the current pricingGold bulls ready to rumble again?EUR/USD continues to hold the line, draws in key near-term levelWeekly update on interest rate expectationsBOJ governor Ueda says will not comment on short-term FX movesBOJ governor Ueda says no huge build up of yen carry positions compared

ECBs Stournaras: A 25 basis point cut by the ECB by the end of the year is reasonableTrump tariffs could lead to recession in the medium-term In other ECB commentary, ECBs Lane is also talking and says: if policymakers had had perfect foresight about the shocks that were about to hitthe economy, interest rates would

The People’s Bank of China set the onshore yuan (CNY) reference rate for the trading session ahead. USD/CNY is the onshore yuan. Its permitted to trade plus or minus 2% from this daily reference rate.CNH is the offshore yuan. USD /CNH has no restrictions on its trading range.A significantly stronger or weaker rate than expected

No evidence monetary policy overall is more potent in Australia than elsewhereWorth reviewing RBA’s approach to forward guidance from time to timeThat includes considering other ways to clarify nature of reaction function Just some token remarks there as the RBA is still not quite in any position to be cutting rates just yet. This article

Timesd below are listed as GMT/US Eastern time. Lane is usually of interest (he is ECB chief economist) 0815/0315 Opening speech European Central Bank’s vice president Luis de Guindos at 27th Euro Finance Week “Setting the course for 2025” in Frankfurt, Germany 1300/0800 ECB chief economist Philip Lane speaks at a SUERF lecture in Rome

The major US major indices are opening with mixed results. The Dow industrial average is lower. The S&P index is trading near unchanged while the index is up modestly. A snapshot of the market currently shows (four minutes into the open): Dow industrial average is down -96.95 points or -0.22% at 43348.04S&P index -2.36 points

Goldman Sachs downgrade Hong Kong stocks to underweight. Hong Kong stock valuations are not high, but don’t offer much economic or earnings growthproperty and retail sectors remain under pressureeconomy may not benefit as much from policy support in China as it previously has, given China’s focus on bolstering the domestic economy This article was written

Bank of Japan Governor Ueda in Nagoya to deliver a speech and take questions from business executives. Full Text [PDF 504KB] In summary: Economic Activity: Corporate Sector: Business sentiment has improved, with corporate profits on an upward trend. Firms maintain active investment stances, focusing on future growth areas such as digitalization and decarbonization. Household Sector:

The USDCHF last week moved above the 61.8% retracement of the move down from the May 1 high to the early September low at 0.88989 last week, but failed on two separate attempts. The high price on Friday stalled near that retracement level and rotated to the downside. Going forward it would take a move

South Korea’s financial regulator statement: recent declines in stocks a little excessivewill prepare measures to stabilize markets as needed Info via Reuters Kospi daily candles: This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

The growth outlook is clouded by uncertainty about economic policies, geopolitical landscapeTrade tensions could rise further, increasing tail risk of events materialisingThe balance of risks has shifted from concerns about high inflation to fears over economic growth It has been the case already in the last few months for the ECB. And now even more

In recent weeks North Korea has sent troops to fight with Russian forces in Ukraine. The latest from the other side is now that the US has authorised the use of long-range American weapons to strike inside Russia. Escalation continues. More info here at CNN (there are plenty of other reports also if you check

MUFG on the euro, says the fall since the US election a little overdone. Sees prospects for improvement ahead, citing (in brief) there is a risk that the European Central Bank cuts rates slower than the market expects, MUFG says exp[ectations for cuts are ‘excessive’ MUFG says that the European Central Bank is not super-responsive

Rate cuts by year-end Fed: 15 bps (63% probability of rate cut at the upcoming meeting) 2025: 75 bps ECB: 32 bps (74% probability of 25 bps rate cut at the upcoming meeting) 2025: 141 bps BoE: 5 bps (80% probability of no change at the upcoming meeting) 2025: 62 bps BoC: 33 bps (65%

Fundamental Overview Last week, despite the higher-than-expected inflation figures and a less dovish Powell, the US Dollar couldn’t extend the gains. The market’s pricing remained largely unchanged at three rate cuts by the end of 2025. This might be a signal that the market is now fine with the current pricing, and we will need

No firm clues on a December rate hike from Ueda in his speech: Bank of Japan Governor Ueda says economy recovering moderately, some weak signs USD/JPY spiked higher, circa 154.98 seen on EBS: 1 minute candles This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

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In conjunction with its token listing on centralized exchanges (MEXC, Bit2Me), Polkadot parachain LAOS Network is thrilled to announce a strategic partnership with Sequence, the all-in-one development platform for integrating web3 into games, to bring Free-2-Play game mechanics to blockchain gaming, now achievable at an unprecedented scale. By leveraging Sequence’s robust web3 technology stack, LAOS

Prior €4.6 billion This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

As is usual for a Monday morning, market liquidity is very thin until it improves as more Asian centres come online … prices are liable to swing around, so take care out there. Indicative rates, little change from late Friday: EUR/USD 1.0530USD/JPY 154.20GBP/USD 1.2626USD/CHF 0.8874USD/CAD 1.4088AUD/USD 0.6463NZD/USD 0.5865 This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan

Disappointing data this. Machinery Orders (MoM) (September) -1.7% expected 1.9%, prior -1.9% Machinery Orders (YoY) (September) +4.8% expected 2.2%, prior -3.4% More: for the July – September quarter machine orders fell 1.3% q/qOctober -December machinery orders are forecast at +5.7% q/q — Core machinery orders data is a highly volatile series its used as a

Fundamental Overview Last week, despite the higher-than-expected inflation figures and a less dovish Powell, the US Dollar couldn’t extend the gains. The market’s pricing remained largely unchanged at three rate cuts by the end of 2025. This might be a signal that the market is now fine with the current pricing, and we will need

Weak yen pushes up costs and have big negative impact on consumptionBut it is a positive for exports and inbound tourismDoes not think there is a huge build up of yen carry positions compared to JulySeeing progress in sustainably achieving price targetKeeping rates low for too long could accelerate inflation and force us to hike

A quiet week lies ahead in terms of scheduled economic events, though a few key releases and updates will still garner attention. On Tuesday, Australia will release the minutes from the RBA’s monetary policy meeting, providing insights into the central bank’s outlook. In the U.K., the monetary policy report hearings will take center stage, while

There are just a couple to take note of, as highlighted in bold. They are for EUR/USD at the 1.0500 and 1.0520 levels. Similar to last week, the former will be the more important one to watch as it sits alongside a key technical support region for the pair. That will once again be a

Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago President Austan Goolsbee spoke Friday: Fed’s Goolsbee says rates will be a lot lower “as long we keep making progress toward” 2% He is due to speak on Monday at 1500 GMT/1000US Eastern time: gives welcome remarks before the Financial Markets Group Fall Conference hosted by the Federal Reserve Bank

Eurostoxx +0.1%Germany DAX +0.1%France CAC 40 +0.1%UK FTSE +0.1%Spain IBEX flat The changes are light, reflecting the mood in US futures as well. S&P 500 futures are seen up 0.1% on the day. In other markets, major currencies continue to keep more muted overall. The dollar remains steady with narrow ranges still prevailing for the

Goldman Sachs lowered its forecast for Australia’s economic growth in 2025 (info comes via Bloomberg (gated)): forecasts Australian domestic product (GDP) rising 1.8% in 2025, down from its previous forecast of 2% GS cite likely “negative spillovers” from the incoming Trump’s expected increase in tariffs on China, specifically the impact on Australia’s exports to China.

Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago President Austan Goolsbee is speaking again on MondayGoldman Sachs have reiterated their gold target of $3,000 an ounce by December 2025Chinese city of Shanghai said it would reduce some taxes on real estate transactionsEuropean Central Bank President Lagarde speaking Monday, chief economist Lane also + moreGoldman Sachs downgrade Hong Kong

Goldman Sachs with the usual suspects cited for a rising gold price, saying structural drivers include: higher demand from central banksflows into exchange-traded fundsFederal Reserve rate cuts GS restated their US$3,000 target for end -2025. Also cited: unprecedented escalation of trade tensions could revive speculative positioning in goldrising concern over US fiscal sustainability ** On

Rick Rieder is BlackRock’s CIO of Global Fixed Income. He is still expecting a December Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) 25bp interest rate cut. Rieder says that the current 4.5% to 4.75% target range Fed Funds rate is restrictive After the cut in December Rieder expects the FOMC to pauseFOMC will assess the number of

Will scrutinise how FX moves affect economy, price forecasts at each policy meetingThere are numerous factors we want to check, including the US economyBut won’t necessarily wait until there is clarity for all of themWill check them at each policy meeting in deciding policyIf we don’t adjust degree of monetary support appropriately, could be forced

Chinese state media with the report, taxes on property reduced in Shanghai. Shanghai said on Monday it would reduce some taxes on real estate transactions effective from Dec. 1, a move that will support the local property market, according to state media report.Residents will be exempt from VAT when they buy a property for two

I posted earlier on Goldman Sachs and the Reserve Bank of Australia: Goldman Sachs lower its forecast for Australia’s economic growth in 2025 on Trump vs Chinaforecasts a 25bp interest rate cut from the Reserve Bank of Australia in February 2025 As for the Reserve Bank of New Zealand, Goldman Sachs expects two more 50bp

Smoking gun narratives centring on Ukraine / Russia / US developments: US authorizes Ukraine to use long-range US weapons to strike inside Russia Russia escalated with its influx of troops from North Korea. Now another escalation with the US authorization of the use of long-range weapons to hit targets inside of Russia. China looks to

I’ve posted a couple of times on this already, most recently: Heads up for Asia central bank speakers Monday, November 18 – BoJ Gov Ueda, RBA’s Kent Bank of Japan Governor Ueda speech is from 10am local time on Monday 0100 GMT (Monday), 2000 US Eastern time (Sunday) Q&A follows at 1.45 pm local time

Singapore’s non-oil domestic exports (NODX) -7.4% m/m in October 2024 expected +2.3%, prior -0.6% (revised from +1.1%) -4.6% y/y expected +4.0%, prior +0.9% (revised from +2.7%)notable NODX to Chi9na fell 22.3% y/y More: exports of non-electronics decreasedexports of electronics increased This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

In brief from a UBS note on the US dollar. Analysts at the banks are looking for a 1.05 – 1.12 EUR/USD range in 2025, but don’t discount dips under 1.05. Froecast 1.12 at the end of 2025. UBS say that investor expectations of US tax cuts and tariffs aimed at boosting US manufacturing are

People’s Bank of China USD/CNY reference rate is due around 0115 GMT. The People’s Bank of China (PBOC), China’s central bank, is responsible for setting the daily midpoint of the yuan (also known as renminbi or RMB). The PBOC follows a managed floating exchange rate system that allows the value of the yuan to fluctuate

Bank of Japan Governor Ueda spoke , earlier summary post is here: Bank of Japan Governor Ueda says economy recovering moderately, some weak signs USD/JPY spiked: USD/JPY volatile on Bank of Japan Governor Ueda speech And USD/JPY is adding to its gains now: More, these Headlines via Reuters: Japan’s economy recovering moderately albeit some weak

Higher PPI (Wholesale level prices) in New Zealand in the third quarter of 2024. New Zealand dollar up a touch (barely) on the data. The Reserve Bank of New Zealand is in a cutting cycle and higher price indications will not be welcome. Earlier from New Zealand: New Zealand services PMI (October) 46.0 (prior 45.7)

We have had data from Japan this morning, disappointing: Japan Machinery orders for September 2024: -0.7% m/m (expected +1.9%) If you think economic developments in Japan are arguing against Bank of Japan interest rate rises, as are political pressures, I’d be agreeing with you. But, listen out for what Bank of Japan Governor Ueda has

Good morning, afternoon and evening all. Any charts, technical analysis, trade ideas, thoughts, views, ForexLive traders would like to share and discuss with fellow ForexLive traders, please do so: This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

more to come Yen traders will want to take note of Bank of Japan Governor Ueda today. He will be in Nagoya to deliver deliver a speech and take questions from business executives. His speech is from 10am local time on Monday 0100 GMT (Monday), 2000 US Eastern time (Sunday) Q&A follows at 1.45 pm

New Zealand’s services sector PMI from the BNZ – BusinessNZ Performance of Services Index (PSI) for October 2024: 46.0 prior 45.7still in contraction and well under the average of 53.1 over the history of the survey BNZ’s Senior Economist Doug Steel comment: “although it is contracting at a much slower pace than it was in

Is META stock a Buy? It is a Buy BUT not yet. Let me explain. Meta Platforms, Inc. (META) remains one of the most popular and closely watched stocks on the market, known for its innovation and dominance in the tech space. But with META trading near its all-time highs earlier this year, many investors

UPCOMING EVENTS: Monday: US NAHB Housing Market Index.Tuesday: RBA Meeting Minutes, Canada CPI, US Housing Starts and Building Permits.Wednesday: PBoC LPR, UK CPI, Eurozone Wage Growth.Thursday: Canada PPI, US Jobless Claims.Friday: Australia/Japan/EU/UK/US Flash PMIs, Japan CPI, UK Retail Sales, Canada Retail Sales. Tuesday The Canadia CPI Y/Y is expected at 1.9% vs. 1.6% prior, while

Mon: G20 (Brazil)Tue: NBH Policy Announcement; RBA Minutes (Nov); EZ Indicator of Negotiated Wage Rates (Q3), EZ HICP (Final), US Building Permits/Housing Starts (Oct), Canadian CPI (Oct)Wed: UK CPI (Oct), German PPI (Oct)Thu: CBRT & SARB Policy Announcements; UK PSNB (Oct), US Initial Jobless Claims (w/e 16th Nov), Philadelphia Fed (Nov), Existing Home Sales (Oct),

There is movement at the Federal Reserve, as indicated by Powell on Thursday, when he could get word in on policy: Fed’s Powell: Economy isn’t sending signals that we need to be in a hurry to cutthe interviewer is asking non-stop political questions. Powell basically had to straighten her out Goolsbee spoke on Friday: Fed’s

Here is the problem with OPEC — they’re too optimistic about demand. At this time last year, they forecast world oil demand would rise to 104.36 million barrels per day this year. It was in stark contrast to the IEA at 102.78 mbpd and EIA at 102.34 mbpd. Skip ahead to now: OPEC 102.8 mbpdIEA

Credit Agricole argues that despite similarities, 2025 will not be a redux of the USD’s 2018 rally driven by Trump-era policies. Differences in economic conditions, monetary policy, and the USD’s current strength suggest that the dynamics underpinning the dollar’s movement will differ significantly from 2018. Key Points: Divergent Economic and Monetary Conditions: In 2018, strong

Until today, USD/JPY had rallied every day this week in impressive fashion. However after some tough talk from the finance minister today, there is some heavy selling. The pair is now down 201 pips to 154.23 as it’s now cut through Wednesday’s low. I hesitate to put too much of the blame on the drop

Bitcoin is closing out a great week on a positive note. It briefly fell below $88K in US trading but has been steadily bid since and particularly in the past hour. It’s now up 3.3% on the day to $91,200 and that’s coincided with a modest rebound in risk appetite more broadly. This article was

The shine of the election has run into uncertainty about tariffs and elevated P/Es. Pretty much all the gains after the open on post-election morning are now gone and the S&P 500 is now threatening the opening gap while the Nasdaq has already taken a decent bite. Trump’s cabinet picks are leaning heavily on “promises

I hope and expect that in Q1, inflation will come downPricing power is more limitedI am still seeing progress on inflationWe are a long way from knowing what will happen with tariffs This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

Everything is always on the policy tableAsked about a Dec cut, said he doesn’t like to tie his hands before dataWe are going to be looking at rate cuts along the lines of the Sept Fed projectionsRecent inflation has been higher than target, if that’s extended then it’s too highNot a lot has changed in

US October retail sales control group -0.1% vs +0.3% expectedUS November Empire Fed manufacturing survey +31.2 vs -0.7 expectedUS October industrial production -0.3% vs -0.3% expectedUS September business inventories +0.1% vs +0.2% expectedUS October import prices YoY 0.8% vs -0.1% priorCanada Sept wholesale sales +0.8% vs +0.9% expectedFed’s Barkin: I always have expected core PCE

US equities are making new lows but bonds have turned around. Ten-year Treasury yields touched the highest since May earlier today at 4.50% but have since turned around and are now down 1.6 bps on the day to 4.40%. That’s a solid rejection but the next hurdle is yesterday’s low. A drop below that would

Williams doesn’t often shy away from a microphone or opportunity to weigh in but the event was about 100 years at the NY Fed and he stuck to that. This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

Japan’s Nikkei 225 index is opening up 0.55% at 38749.56. For the trading week, the Nikkei 225 index is down -1.75% after rising 3.8% last week This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

It’s still very early for Q4 GDP estimates but the Atlanta Fed is at 2.5%, unchanged compared to the prior update. “An increase in the nowcast of fourth-quarter real personal consumption expenditures growth was offset by a decrease in the nowcast of fourth-quarter real gross private domestic investment growth,” the report said. This article was

Goldman Sachs anticipates October core retail sales to grow by 0.3%, in line with consensus, driven by robust card spending. Headline retail sales are forecasted to increase by 0.4%, with lower gasoline prices partially offset by higher auto sales. Key Points: Core Retail Sales Forecast: Core retail sales are expected to increase by 0.3%, reflecting

This is a lower-tier indicator but something the Bank of Canada is watching. Despite rate cuts, lending conditions worsened in Q3. They may also be concerned that rising yields could further impair lending in Q4. A problem for Canada (and many other countries) is that the Federal Reserve and US Treasury market does a big

The US dollar is under some broadening pressure. It could be an unwind of fixing flows but it’s something worth watching, particularly as Treasury yields come back down. Here is a look at AUD/USD, which at times has been a forerunner of risk appetite. The biggest move on the day has been USD/JPY, which is

A Wall Street Journal report says Trump is tiring of a “cold war” between Howard Lutnick and Scott Bessent for the job as Treasury Secretary and is now looking at others. One is TV personality Larry Kudlow, who was director of the National Economic Council for the latter half of Trump’s first term. The report

At 10:30 am ET, she’s slated to be on Bloomberg TV. This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

Retail sales are are the highlight of the day as we wind down a busy week with a handful of notable releases. The top one comes early with the 8:30 am ET (1330 GMT) release of US retail sales. The headline consensus is +0.3% but eyes are on the control group, which is also forecast

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Fundamental Overview Gold is pulling back a bit now after an almost 8% selloff since the US election day. The market didn’t react hawkishly after another hot US PPI report and an acknowledgement from Fed Chair Powell that they can proceed carefully on rate cuts. The market might be fine with just two rate cuts

Japans finance minister Kato: Will take appropriate action versus excessive FX movesone-sided, sharp moves seen in FX market.Important for FX rates to move stably reflecting fundamentals.Government will scrutinize FX market with very high vigilance including speculative moves. This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

Get the cowboy hats out, the Fed chairman is in Dallas. He is speaking to the regional Chamber of Commerce and will take questions after his speech. This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

Prior was +0.3%Retail inventories ex-autos +0.2% vs +0.1% prior This is a low tier indicator but it will be a drag on GDP. This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

Is this where the train stops for the dollar? The post-election run higher has been without much pause but finally we might be getting that today. The greenback is down across the board, retracing just a slight bit of the gains from this week. USD/JPY is the biggest loser, down 0.6% to 155.33 currently. However,

Geopolitics: Isreal wishes deeper into Lebanon in widening war campaignJapan revised industrial production for September 1.6% versus 1.4% estimateGoldman: Forecasts BOC to cut rates by 50 basis points December (up from 25 basis points)Japan sells JPY 1.75 trillion of 5year JGBs at a average yield of 0.706% (vs 0.562% last)China’s stats Bureau : “Domestic demand

The pace and extent of reduction will depend on dataDevelopments remain consistent with a consumption-led recoveryWhether the recovery will firm up remains to be confirmedWe should not be more restrictive than what is necessary to ensure timely convergence of inflation to targetIt could be self-defeating to tolerate an economy running persistently below potential as an

European stocks were very strong yesterday in what looked like it could be a reversal but the bears returned today and left indexes lower on the week. On the day: Stoxx 600 -0.8%German DAX -0.1%France CAC -0.5%UK FTSE 100 -0.2%Spain IBEX +0.7%Italy’s FTSE MIB -0.5% On the week: Stoxx 600 -0.7%German DAX flatFrance CAC -0.9%UK

Sector Overview Today’s stock market snapshot reveals a challenging day for several key sectors, particularly technology and consumer cyclical. The technology sector is under pressure, showing declines across major players such as Microsoft (MSFT) down 1.27%, Adobe (ADBE) slipping by 1.63%, and Salesforce (CRM) dropping 1.20%. The volatility in semiconductors is notable, with heavyweights like

Fundamental Overview The US Dollar yesterday weakened across the board despite a higher than expected US Core PPI and Fed Chair Powell acknowledging the need to proceed more carefully with rate cuts from here on. This might be a signal that the market could be fine with just two rate cuts priced in for 2025

Prior +1.1%HICP +1.6% vs +1.5% y/y prelimPrior +1.4% Core annual inflation was unchanged, seen at 1.4% in October. So, that’s at least one bright spot for the ECB although it is still relatively high and sticky in the likes of Germany. This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

All China Oct New Home Prices: -5.9% YoY (Sept -5.8%)All China Oct New Home Prices: -0.5% MoM (Sept -0.7%) Regionally: China Oct Shenzhen New Home Prices: -8.1% YoY (Sept -8.6%)China Oct Shenzhen New Home Prices: +0.1% MoM (Sept -1.0%)China Oct Guangzhou New Home Prices: -10.4% YoY (Sept -10.3%)China Oct Guangzhou New Home Prices: -0.7% MoM

A report today showed that Russia cut off natural gas exports to Austria and European gas prices spiked. There could be some arm twisting there aimed to get Europe on board with an end to the war. Putin talked with Scholz today and reports say the Russian leader said possible agreements on Ukraine should take

It’s a tough day to make money. The S&P 500 is down 55 points, or 1.0% and trading near a session low. It’s a continuation of the selloff that started yesterday on a less-dovish Powell. The market is now pricing just a 57% chance of a December cut, down from 85% at the start of

We for sure should watch long rates Fed has to figure out why 10-year is rising and keep an eye on long ratesThis 12-18 month timeline is very interesting as it sounds like a much slower process.I don’t think we’re at neutral nowCore PCE is still too highIf there is disagreement over the neutral rate,

I’ve been pounding the table for awhile on USD/CAD longs and it’s all come together in the past two months, with a one-way move up through a series of highs in the 1.3950 range. Now the pair has clearly broken out and it’s due to a soft Canadian economy and a surprisingly strong one in

Good morning, afternoon and evening all. TGIF to all as well. Eamonn is off today, but that does not mean traditions have to be abandoned. So if there are any charts, technical analysis, trade ideas, thoughts, views, ForexLive traders would like to share and discuss with fellow ForexLive traders, please do so in the comments.

Fundamental Overview The S&P 500 rallied into a new all-time high following Trump’s victory and the red sweep as the market started to look forward to bullish drivers like tax cuts and deregulation. The only bearish reason people were looking at was the rise in Treasury yields. That’s generally bearish only when the Fed is

Prior control group was +0.7% (revised to +1.2%)Headline retail sales +0.4% versus +0.3% expectedPrior m/m sales +0.1% (revised to +0.8%)Retail sales $718.9 billion versus $714.4 billion priorRetail sales y/y +2.8% versus +1.7% priorEx autos +0.1% versus +0.3% expectedPrior ex autos +0.5% prior (revised to +1.0%)Ex autos and gas +0.1% versus +0.7% prior The US consumer

Economy is in a very good place right nowNo preset path for monetary policyWon’t take a December easing off the tableWhat’s really elevated is shelter inflation, I’m not seeing evidence of new price pressuresI think it’s important to stay the courseDoesn’t see a big urgency to lower rates but wants to preserve a healthy economyThere

Prior was -11.9 Six Month Forward-Looking Indicators This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

Prior month 0.7%GDP QoQ 3Q 0.2% vs 0.2% estimateGDP Annualized 0.9% vs 0.7% estimateAnnualize last quarter 2.9%Capital expenditures -0.2% versus -0.2% expected. Previous quarter +0.8%.Private consumption preliminary 0.9% versus 0.2% expected. Previous quarter 0.9%.External demand -0.4% versus expected 0.1%. Previous quarter -0.1%. The USDJPY is trading to new highs after the data and lose closer

Headlines: Dollar holds lower ahead of retail sales dataGold Technical Analysis – The correction looks to be over for nowS&P 500 Technical Analysis – Another great dip-buying opportunity?Fed’s Collins: December rate cut is certainly on the table but not a done dealGermany October wholesale price index +0.4% vs -0.3% m/m priorFrance October final CPI +1.2%

Pres. Elect Trump has picked Robert F. Kennedy Jr as Secretary of Health and Human Services. In his tweet: I wonder if McDonalds will get an exemption? ; ) RFK Jr. is anti vaccine and does not support fluoride in water. Trump did say that he would let RFK Jr. “go wild on health” who

Prior was -0.6%Manufacturing sales -0.5% vs -0.8% expected This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

Prior was -0.4% (revised to -0.5%)Capacity utilization 77.1% 77.2% expectedPrior utilization 77.4% There are two poor readings in a row but today’s Empire Fed was very strong and that may highlight a return to growth in the months ahead. This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

Semi-annual currency report found no major U.S. trading partners manipulated currency to gain unfair trade advantage in four quarters through June 2024. No major trading partners met all three criteria for enhanced analysis during the review period.Monitoring list of trading partners whose currency practices “merit close attention” includes China, Japan, South Korea, Singapore, Taiwan, Vietnam,

Prior month 3.2%Retail sales 4.8% versus 3.8% expected This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

There is more data that we will see between now and DecemberHave to continue to weigh what makes senseFed could eventually slow down pace of rate cuts but too soon to say if it will be in DecemberFed policy is restrictiveDon’t see evidence of new price pressuresFull transcript (may be gated) After Powell’s comments yesterday,

Japan sold JPY 1.75 trillion of 5-year JGBs Yield 0.706% versus 0.562% last monthBid to cover: 3.81X vs 3.73X last monthTail in price 0.02 vs prev 0.03 A mixed auction result, but not bad. This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

Prior month import prices YoY -0.1%US import prices MoM 0.3% vs -0.1% expected and-0.4% priorUS export prices MoM 0.8% vs -0.1% expected and -0.6% priorUS export prices YoY -0.1% vs -2.1% prior This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at www.forexlive.com.

The price of the NZDUSD moved below a swing area of lows going back to 2023 between 0.58488 and 0.58592. That area encompassed the last five swing lows going back to November 2023 (see numbered circles on the chart above). Getting below those level was a path to lower level including the swing low from

Sees Eurozone economic growth at 0.8% in 2024, 1.3% in 2025, and 1.6% in 2026Sees Eurozone inflation at 2.4% in 2024, 2.1% in 2025, and 1.9% in 2026 Of note, they are forecasting the German economy to contract by 0.1% this year as compared to their previous forecast of 0.1% growth in the spring. Meanwhile,

In more geopolitical news: Meeting: Elon Musk met with Iran’s U.N. Ambassador Amir Saeid Iravani in New York to discuss defusing U.S.-Iran tensions.Session Details: The meeting lasted over an hour, was held in a secret location, and was described as “positive” by two anonymous Iranian officials.Trump Transition: Musk is a close adviser to President-elect Trump,

Fundamental Overview The Nasdaq rallied into a new all-time high following Trump’s victory and the red sweep as the market started to look forward to bullish drivers like tax cuts and deregulation. The only bearish reason people were looking at was the rise in Treasury yields. That’s generally bearish only when the Fed is tightening

Expects modest economic recovery to continue, driven by improving employment and wage environment.Need to carefully monitor downside risk from overseas economies and volatility in financial, capital markets.It’s up to Bank of Japan to decide on monetary policy. This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

The dollar continues to sit in a good spot on the week, though major currencies are very lightly changed thus far. Here’s a snapshot of dollar pairs at the moment, highlighting the narrow ranges and minor moves ahead of European trading. It’s still all about the post-election flows in markets but we’re starting to see

German DAX futures -0.5%French CAC 40 futures -0.7%UK FTSE futures -0.4% This comes after the more negative showing in Wall Street, with US futures also pointing down today. S&P 500 futures are down 0.5% currently with tech shares leading the downside nudge. Nasdaq futures are down 0.7% as we look to get the session underway.

German wholesale prices bounced back in October but on an annual basis are still down 0.8% compared to the same month last year. Most of the drag for the annual estimate comes from lower prices for mineral oil products, down 11.5% year-on-year. This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

There is just one to really take note of on the day, as highlighted in bold. That being for EUR/USD at the pivotal 1.0500 level. As mentioned here, that is a major technical mark for the pair and the expiries today highlights the added interest towards that. If anything, they add another layer that sellers

There was an inevitable pull towards the 1.0500 mark for EUR/USD in trading yesterday. And it did just that with the low touching 1.0495 as sellers tried to give it a go in breaking the key level. They look to be failing on the first try now with price bouncing back up to 1.0565 currently,

The Fed does have obligations to explain itself to public and congressInflation is a social phenomenon, if they believe it will go up, it probably willWe will be careful about changing policy until we have a lot more certaintyWe have time to make assessments on net effects of policy changes before we reactWhen it comes

Prior month 5.4%industrial production 5.3% versus 5.6% estimate This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

Prior +0.7%HICP +1.0% vs +1.0% y/y prelimPrior +0.7% Core annual inflation remains unchanged on the month, seen at 1.8%. So, that is something the ECB can at least be happy about. But again, German inflation is the key sticking point at the moment for the central bank. This article was written by Justin Low at

The gold market was pricing for uncertainty into the US election but when the results were quickly clear, it slumped and has been on the back-foot since. It traded as low as $2537 today in the fifth straight day of declines. It did find some support there with the low nearly matching a set of

Fundamental Overview The US Dollar yesterday weakened across the board despite a higher than expected US Core PPI and Fed Chair Powell acknowledging the need to proceed more carefully with rate cuts from here on. This might be a signal that the market could be fine with just two rate cuts priced in for 2025

The changes among major currencies are light, with narrow ranges largely prevailing for now. The dollar is still sitting in a good spot though, after having pushed higher again in trading yesterday. The mood was helped by Fed chair Powell’s comments that they’re not that much in a hurry to lower rates. USD/JPY is holding

The only notable event for the European session was the UK GDP release. Looking ahead we just have some low tier data points until the start of the American session. That’s when we’ll get the US Retail Sales report which is going to be the main highlight of the day. 13:30 GMT/08:30 ET – US

Discover how to use multi-timeframe analysis to detect profitable trading opportunities across different markets The post The Essential Guide To Multi-Timeframe Analysis appeared first on TradingwithRayner.

China’s Stat Bureau spokesperson: Domestic demand is still insufficientBut also noted major economic indicators recovered markedly in OctoberChina’s consumer expectations improved in OctoberWill consolidate trend in economic recovery Today China’s economic data revealed a slowdown in industrial output growth, which increased by 5.3% year-on-year in October, slightly above September’s 5.4% but below forecasts of 5.6%.

The WSJ is reporting. Israel is expanding its ground operations in southern Lebanon, moving troops into villages farther from the border, raising concerns of a prolonged conflict.Six Israeli soldiers were killed by Hezbollah fighters in one of the deadliest incidents since the operation began.Israel’s initial goal was to clear Hezbollah from the border and dismantle

Prior +0.2%Services 0.0% vs +0.2% m/m expectedPrior +0.1%Industrial output -0.5% vs +0.1% m/m expectedPrior +0.5%Manufacturing output -1.0% vs -0.1% m/m expectedPrior +1.1%; revised to +1.3%Construction output +0.1% vs +0.2% m/m expectedPrior +0.4%; revised to +0.6% The poor showing in September, particularly the services sector, is what looks to have led to the drag in the

Prior +0.5%GDP +1.0% vs +1.0% y/y expectedPrior +0.7% The quarterly estimate shows that the UK economy barely expanded in Q3, which highlights a more struggling backdrop in the second half of the year. This will be a tricky spot to watch for the BOE, especially if labour market conditions also start to ease much quicker

Eurostoxx -0.6%Germany DAX -0.5%France CAC 40 -0.8%UK FTSE -0.4%Spain IBEX -0.3%Italy FTSE MIB -0.5% This takes away from the gains yesterday with European indices still poised to end the week lower. The drag here comes with a more negative mood in Wall Street overnight and S&P 500 futures are also seen down 0.6% currently. The

Necessary to establish, improve fertility support policies to promote long-term population developmentEfforts should be made to maintain a moderate fertility level and population sizeNecessary to better coordinate relation between population and economyTo strengthen demographic statistics, dynamic monitoring, early warning and improve legal system for population and birth security This is one of the least talked

Looking at the breakdown, producer prices were down 0.3% while import prices were seen down 0.4% on the month. Compared to the same month last year, producer and import prices were seen down 1.8%. Overall, the recent trend will be one that the SNB can find comfort with. This article was written by Justin Low

S&P 500 -0.6%Nasdaq Comp -0.6%DJIA -0.5%Russell 2000 -1.5%Toronto TSX Comp +0.2% US equities opened flat but selling crept in early but really picked up after hawkish comments from Powell. This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

The PBOC is expected to set the Yuan the point at 7.2482 per USD according to Reuter esimate. Yesterday they set the reference rates at 7.1966 This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

The People’s Bank of China set the onshore Yuan (CNY) reference rate for the trading session ahead USDCNY is the onshore yuan. It permitted to trade plus or -2% from this daily reference rateCNH is the offshore yuan. USDCNH has no restrictions on its trading range.A significant stronger or weaker rate than expected is typically

Goldman Sachs forecasts that the Bank of Canada is to cut interest rates by 50 basis points in its December meeting versus prior forecast of 25 basis points. Forecasts BOC will continue to cut her interest rates until reaching a terminal rate of 2.25% in June 2025 versus prior forecast of 2.5% The USDCAD moved

Urges UK not to counter protectionism with tariffsWe must welcome opportunity to rebuild EU relationsUK potential growth fell from 2.6% (1990-2008) to 1.3% (2009-2019), further dropping to 0.7% (2020-2023)Main culprit: Weak productivity growthUK consistently at bottom of G7 investment/GDP ratio since late 1990sLabor supply issues compounded by aging populationBrexit has weighed on potential supply, particularly

Prior month 5.1%Unemployment rate 5.0% versus 5.1% expected This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

Fed’s Powell: Economy isn’t sending signals that we need to be in a hurry to cutPowell Q&A: We’re not thinking about political parties when we make decisionsUS weekly initial jobless claims 221K vs 223K expectedUS October producer price index +2.4% y/y vs +2.3% expectedEIA weekly nat gas inventories +42 bcf vs +44 bcf expectedECB’s Schnabel:

The US dollar is higher across the board and risk assets are struggling after a hawkish turn from the Fed Chair. Speaking in Dallas, FOMC leader Jerome Powell hinted that rates might not be cut in December. “The economy is not sending any signals that we need to be in a hurry to lower rates.

Prior +1.4%Revised industrial production 1.6% versus 1.4% estimate. Prior month -3.3%Capacity utilization 4.4% versus -5.3% last monthTertiary industry activity -0.2% versus +0.2% estimate. Prior month -1.1% This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

Pres. Trump has reappointed former SEC Chair Jay Clayton for the same position. Clayton was the chairman of the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission from May 4, 2017 until December 23, 2020 during the first term of Pres. Trump. CORRECTION: Jay Clayton would be US Attorney for the Southern District of NY – not SEC

The EURUSD fell to new low in 2024 and low going back to October 2023 in trading yesterday. The low price reached to 1.0495. That low got within 12 pips of the low swing area target at 1.0483 (see red circles on the chart above). The price rebounded into the close with the pair moving

The USDJPY moved above a swing area yesterday between 154.54 and 155.21 and also above a upside trendline. The break was more bullish. When the price modestly corrected into the first few hours of the Asian session yesterday, the price retested that break level, and found willing buyers. The price moved higher in fits of

Comments from the Fed Chairman in Dallas Economy not sending signals that Fed needs to be in a hurry to lower ratesMoving policy over time towards neutral; policy isn’t pre-setExpects inflation to continue to come down on a ‘sometimes bumpy’ pathFed committed to finishing the job on inflationEconomic strength gives Fed the ability to approach

After rebounding after the US election last week, and approaching the AUDUSDs 100 day MA, buyers turned to sellers and have pushed the price lower ever since. For this week, each of the days have been lower Will today make it 5 for 5? Technically, in order to turn the bias around and give the

Australia’s ASI’s 200 is higher by 0.1% in early trading. A modest increase to start the new trading day. As we head into the last day of trading for the week, the index is down -0.9%. That comes after a gain of 2.2% last week. The high price this week was reached on Monday at

Chinese Pres Xi to push for open Asian Pacific economy. Later today (and p.m. ET). New home prices will be released (-0.7% last month)Industrial Production 5.5% est. vs 5.4% last monthRetail Sales YoY 3.8% est vs 3.2%Unemployment rate 5.1% est. vs 5.1% last month This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

New Zealand, Japan and China will release economic data in the Asian Pacific session. Feds Williams is also scheduled to speak at 4:15 PM ET to kick off the new trading session. Below is a listing of the major economic releases on the calendar. 4:30 PM ET: NZD, BusinessNZ Manufacturing Index, Previous: 46.9 6:50pm ET:

BofA notes that the USD’s post-election appreciation in 2024 resembles the 2016 reaction, with similar DXY gains of around 2.8% against G10 currencies, albeit with stronger alignment to rate differentials this time. In 2016, the USD showed a greater excess premium over rate differentials, but today’s movements reflect shifts in relative growth and policy expectations.

Warns against relying on stable macroeconomic relationshipsInflation risks have shifted from downside to upside since pandemicNatural interest rate (r*) uncertainty has increased significantlyPhillips curve relationship becoming more state-dependentOur recent experience has also taught us that central bankers should be careful not to tie their hands too much by providing explicit forward guidance. It looks like

37 of 44 economists expect Trump’s proposed tariffs to be implemented early next year34 of 39 economists expect said tariffs to significantly impact the Eurozone economy As a result of those expectations, economists are also anticipating the ECB to stick with further rate cuts going into next year. For December, 69 of 75 economists expect

Prosper, a decentralized protocol bridging institutional-grade Bitcoin mining power on-chain and aiming to unlock the potential of Bitcoin through liquidity farming, today announced a new investment in its native project token PROS by one of the leading cryptocurrency mining companies BIT Mining Limited (NYSE: BTCM). Prosper’s new strategic focus on Bitcoin mining and the broader

The pullback in gold continues to play out since the post-election period. The precious metal is now down for a fifth straight day in what is already easily its worst weekly showing so far this year. It has more or less been a case of waiting for said pullback to reach some key technical levels

‘Barclays expects the USD to maintain its resilience and bullish momentum through 2025, driven by strong US economic momentum and market adjustments in the Fed’s rate expectations. President-elect Trump’s proposed trade and fiscal policies add further support, outweighing modest Chinese economic stimulus efforts. Key Points: US Economic Momentum and Fed Rate Expectations: Economic strength in

2100 GMT / 1600 US Eastern time on Thursday, November 14, 2024: Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey will deliver a speech at the Annual Financial and Professional Services Dinner, Mansion House We last heard from Bailey a week ago: BOE governor Bailey: I will not specify what gradual means for rate cutsBOE governor Bailey:

It’s been a less-volatile week in US equities as the market digests the election but there have been some big moves in Europe with uncertainty high around trade policies and German politics. Today was a nice rebound after two days of selling. Closing changes: Stoxx 600 +1.1%German DAX +1.3%France CAC +1.3%UK FTSE 100 +0.5%Spain IBEX

Prior was +2149Crude oil inventories +2089 K vs +750K expGasoline inventories -4407K vs +586K expDistillates inventories -1394K vs +234K expRefinery utilization +0.9% versus expectations of +0.6% Private inventory data released late yesterday: Crude -777KGasoline +312KDistillates +1136K WTI crude was trading up 45-cents ahead of the report. Despite the headline, I take this as a bullish

Prior was 221KFour week moving average vs 227.5K priorContinuing jobless claims 1.873m vs 1.880m expected We might still be churning through hurricane and election effects but if you zoom out, these are back into the April-May range, which argues against any labor market deterioration. This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

Key players from the financial services industry are looking forward to the latest edition of the highly anticipated Finance Magnates London Summit (FMLS:24), taking place at the historic Old Billingsgate between 18-20 November, in the heart of the City. Now in its 13th year, the summit is expected to bring together more than 3,500 attendees,

Reuters reports that Trump’s transition team is targeting ending the $7500 consumer subsidy for buying an electric vehicle, citing two sources. Trump has mentioned ending it so it’s not a big surprise. The report says Tesla supports ending it and notes that Elon Musk has said that while it would hurt Tesla sales, it would

Why it’s important? The ranges of estimates are important in terms of market reaction because when the actual data deviates from the expectations, it creates a surprise effect. Another important input in market’s reaction is the distribution of forecasts. In fact, although we can have a range of estimates, most forecasts might be clustered on

Bitcoin has seen some bids early in US trading in the past two days, likely frontrunning ETF flows. The bulls tried that move again today and boosted it to a session high at $91,800 but despite edging above the Asian highs, there was no follow through. Instead, a heavy round of profit taking has hit,

The Bank of Canada looks likely to keep on cutting rates faster than the Federal Reserve. This is one factor in the strength of USD/CAD. I hope the yen bulls are taking note 😉 This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

I see the need for activist policy, rather than gradualistActivist policy means holding bank rate firmly until sufficient evidence of diminished inflation persistence, then can move forcefullyI expect elevated volatility in macroeconomic variables over coming years US political developments have not made disorderly trade scenarios less likely and there will be consequences for the UK

The sugar-high from the Trump election is wearing off in a few spots. Tesla was a darling after the election win as Elon Musk helped to finance Trump’s campaign and ingratiated himself with the President. However a report today says Tesla won’t be spared when Republicans cut the $7500 EV tax credit. That’s caused a

Valhalla, Floki’s PlayToEarn Massively Multiplayer Online Role-Playing Game (MMORPG) blockchain game is proud to announce a partnership in the United Arab Emirates (UAE). On Nov. 13, Valhalla unveiled a partnership with Dubai’s Mall of the Emirates, marking a milestone in its global outreach efforts. The partnership will see Valhalla’s branding prominently displayed across 93 screens

Fundamental Overview The US CPI yesterday came in line with expectations leading to a bit of a “sell the fact” reaction in the US Dollar. The bullish momentum picked up a bit later though as Fed’s Logan delivered a hawkish comment saying that “models show that Fed funds could be very close to neutral” basically

Prior was +1.8%PPI ex food and energy 3.1% y/y vs +3.0% expected (+1.8% prior)PPI ex food and energy +0.3% m/m vs +0.3% expected (+0.3% prior)Ex food, energy and trade 3.5% y/y vs +3.2% prior (revised to +3.3%) USD/JPY was trading at 155.78 ahead of the data. This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

Fed is trying to normalize its balance sheet, not use it to tightening financial conditionsFed does watch carefully what part of the 10-year yield appears driven by inflationThe jury is still out on how recent labor settlements will impact overall wagesUncertainty is one of the reasons to be gradual and cautious about declaring victory over

USD/JPY is extending its gains. So far no intervention type comments out of Japan – rapid, speculative, excess volatility …. blah, blah, blah. Nope, nothing. Yet at least. I thought we would haves seen some open mouths by now. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

Chinese media, Global Times, citing a state media report (CCTV): China’s annual production of new energy vehicles surpassed 10 million units on Thursday, info via China Association of Automobile Manufacturers.the first country to reach this milestone globallyoutput for the whole year is expected to reach 12 million The US and EU have quickly built walls

Inflation has come down quite a lotRecent data on prices are heading towards our 2% goalIf inflation converges towards our goal, then monetary policy will respond accordingly This just reaffirms their current stance and market pricing for a rate cut in December. The question now is, how much will the ECB move by? The odds

I highlighted earlier how Tesla call options on Friday were 44% of all options traded in the US market. We’re also seeing signs of meme stock interest growing. Those are red flags for sentiment but they also tend to be earlier indicators of euphoria, not the final mom-and-pop led blowoff. The fear and greed index

The October jobs report from Australia was not as strong as we have become accustomed to: Australian October unemployment rate 4.1% (vs. 4.1% expected) It was not a poor report, just not another blockbuster! AUD/USD is not a lot changed. Earlier we had Reserve Bank of Australia Governor Bullock sounding not dovish: RBA Bullock says

There was a bit of a wrestle after the US CPI report yesterday but eventually, the dollar once again reigned supreme. EUR/USD saw a break below the April low of 1.0601 and has now traded down to fresh lows for the year. As the greenback continues to run a rampage, it is starting to draw

We’re closing in on winter and the drawdown season. Natural gas has gotten interesting this week as the December contract jumped on Monday on cooler weather forecasts. This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

Reserve Bank of Australia Governor Bullock bond markets pretty well behaved globallybond markets reflecting increasing government debtthink we are restrictive enough, will stay there until confident on inflation More: recent inflation had both supply- and deand-sdie componentsaim is to lower inflationprices not going back to pre-covid level, that would be deflation and not going to

There is just one to take note of, as highlighted in bold. But dollar domination is the name of the game now, so just be wary that the expiries aren’t going to matter all too much. The one highlighted is for EUR/USD at the 1.0550 level. However, it isn’t one that holds any technical significance

US stock futures are flat just ahead of the open while Treasury yields are slightly lower across the curve. The market is weighing the strength of the post-election rally, which has been impressive but won’t move in one direction forever. The big winner in the pre-market is Disney as shares are up 9.3% after earnings.

There is still more demand for housing than supplyThe better way to address the imbalance is more supply, not suppressing demandCompanies still feel labor is short on a long-term basis, are not firing but job growth is slowingThe current level of unemployment is fine, whther it is normalizing or weakening is something still to be

Technology edges higher: Mixed signals in today’s stock market The U.S. stock market showed a mix of gains and losses today, with the technology sector presenting some bright spots despite broader uncertainty. Let’s delve into the highlights and shape our strategic outlook. 📊 Sector Overview Technology & Semiconductors: The technology sector displayed resilience with Microsoft

The GBP/USD has declined in trading today, breaking below the 61.8% retracement level of the move up from the April 2024 low, which sits at 1.2732. Yesterday, the price briefly dipped below this key retracement level before rebounding back upward. However, today’s session has seen renewed selling pressure as the pair failed to hold above

The weekly chart of USD/CAD is looking like a big breakout. Perhaps the biggest warning for the loonie today comes from the oil market. Crude is higher today after two days of declines but the IEA is warning about a surprise of 1 million barrels per day of global oil even if OPEC keeps its

Welcomes easing in inflation expectationsWe need to pay attention to both sides of our mandate Nothing notable here. This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

EBC Financial Group (EBC), in collaboration with the University of Oxford’s Department of Economics, will convene leading minds from academia and finance on 14 November 2024 for a special edition of the What Economists Really Do (WERD) Series. This event, themed “Macroeconomics and Climate”, will feature a keynote lecture by Associate Professor Andrea Chiavari, followed

Fundamental Overview The US CPI yesterday came in line with expectations leading to a bit of a “sell the fact” reaction in the US Dollar. The bullish momentum picked up a bit later though as Fed’s Logan delivered a hawkish comment saying that “models show that Fed funds could be very close to neutral” basically

Rate cuts by year-end Fed: 20 bps (81% probability of rate cut at the upcoming meeting) 2025: 75 bps ECB: 34 bps (62% probability of 25 bps rate cut at the upcoming meeting) 2025: 145 bps BoE: 4 bps (85% probability of no change at the upcoming meeting) 2025: 56 bps BoC: 33 bps (67%

Fundamental Overview The US CPI yesterday came in line with expectations leading to a bit of a “sell the fact” reaction in the US Dollar. The bullish momentum picked up a bit later though as Fed’s Logan delivered a hawkish comment saying that “models show that Fed funds could be very close to neutral” basically

Non policy-related comments. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

And that is thanks to Beijing disappointing markets once again with a failure to live up to stimulus announcements. It was the case right after the Golden Week holiday and it was the case again on Friday last week. With the drop today, the CSI 300 index closes down by 1.7% to post its lowest

0830 GMT / 0330 US Eastern time – Remarks by European Central Bank’s vice president Luis de Guindos at 31 Encuentro del Sector Financiero organised by ABC and Deloitte in Madrid, Spain 1830 GMT / 1330 US Eastern time – Participation by ECB Board member Isabel Schnabel in policy panel “Reassessing Policy Tools for Current

Japan’s former vice minister of finance for international affairs, Masato Kanda was reported with comments on Wednesday ICYMI. currency market volatility had increased reflecting recent changes in monetary policies and political situations in major countries”There is no change to our stance that we will need to respond appropriately to excess movements on the currency market

Eurostoxx +0.6%Germany DAX +0.7%France CAC 40 +0.3%UK FTSE flatSpain IBEX +0.3%Italy FTSE MIB +0.4% It’s still early in the day but European indices are at least hoping to recover some poise after the fall earlier in the week. US futures are also seen flattish at the moment, after having been down earlier in the day.

Prior +1.8%; revised to +1.5% Looking at the details, the drop here is largely driven by a decline in capital goods (-3.8%) and energy production (-1.5%). The former is seen declining back after a surge higher in August (+3.8%). The declines for the month are partially offset by increases in output for durable consumer goods

People’s Bank of China USD/CNY reference rate is due around 0115 GMT. The People’s Bank of China (PBOC), China’s central bank, is responsible for setting the daily midpoint of the yuan (also known as renminbi or RMB). The PBOC follows a managed floating exchange rate system that allows the value of the yuan to fluctuate

Disinflationary process is well on trackInflation had turned out lower than expected in SeptemberUpside risks to inflation are also now seen as lowerInflation would probably reach 2% target somewhat earlierBut still too early to declare victory in the fight against inflationA few members initially expressed a view that they would have preferred to accrue more

There is an idea in markets that “Trump didn’t mean it” on tariffs and many other issues. He just named Matt Gaetz as Attorney General and Tulsi Gabbard for director of National Intel — two off-the-board picks who aren’t exactly known as bridge builders. They will need Senate approval, which isn’t assured but it speaks

Prior +1.5%HICP +1.8% vs +1.8% y/y prelimPrior +1.7% Core annual inflation was seen at 2.5% on the month, up slightly from 2.4% in September. That just reaffirms a small bump in the works in the disinflation process. But given recent developments, the ECB will still feel comfortable in sticking with rate cuts for now. This

Must be mindful of both sides of the mandate right nowIf labour market sputters, appropriate to gradually reduced ratesBut if disinflation progress stalls, it could call for a pause to rate cutsThere has been ‘considerable progress’ on easing inflation pressuresBut housing and other factors may complicate things The message right now seems to be the

Headlines: The dollar train continues to march onGold eyes fifth straight day of losses, closes in on key technical junctureWeekly update on interest rate expectationsWhat is the distribution of forecasts for the US PPI?Fed’s Kugler: If disinflation progress stalls, it could call for a pause to rate cutsECB’s de Guindos: All indicators on core inflation

Prior +0.3%GDP +0.9% vs +0.9% y/y second estimatePrior +0.6% No changes to the initial estimates as this just reaffirms more modest growth in the euro area in Q3. But this is old news, as the focus is on the outlook next year with Trump tariffs set to come into the picture. This article was written

The European session is going to be once again a bit empty on the data front with just a couple of low tier data points. We get the 2nd estimate of the Eurozone Q3 GDP and the ECB Meeting Minutes. Both of them are old news and the market won’t care much about it. In

Noting this, report comes from Japan media (Sankei) via Reuters: Japanese government to compile a supplementary budget of about 13.5 trillion yen ($87 billion)to fund a stimulus package to help low-income households and offset rising pricesgovernment would provide 30,000 yen to low-income households that are exempt from residential taxes and 20,000 yen per child for

All aboard now. The dollar train is marching forward on the session, stretching gains across the board. The post-election momentum continues to play out and it’s still not the time to be guessing the top just yet. EUR/USD is now down 0.5% to 1.0508 as it corroborates with the inevitable pull towards 1.0500. As mentioned

The US CPI report yesterday here provided some reason for a push and pull in markets but ultimately, the dollar settled higher as it continues its post-election momentum. It’s tough to fight that especially with dollar bulls also seeking out key technical breaks on the charts. And the greenback is once again keeping a little

1) Take a look around The main reason the US dollar is so strong is the obvious one: The US economy looks better than anywhere else. It’s the only place you can point to and say “there could be surprisingly-strong growth in 2025”. Europe is a mess, Japan doesn’t need to hike, Australia is tied

That makes it a congressional red sweep and the question now is just how much of a majority will they command in the House? The latest NYT projections here show Republicans do have the needed 218 seats claimed for a majority. However, there are still 9 seats yet to be called. There are some seats

German DAX futures -0.1%UK FTSE futures -0.2% This comes with S&P 500 futures also seen down by 0.2% currently. Wall Street had a mixed day but overall was little changed, as investors pumped the brakes on the post-election euphoria for the time being. In Europe, things are still muddy as the threat of Trump tariffs

The data is here from earlier: Australian October unemployment rate 4.1% (vs. 4.1% expected)AUD/USD little changed after the October employment report showed a steady jobless rate(ps. AUD/USD has slid a little since this post, broadly stronger USD the culprit) Westpac with the recap, in brief: Australian labour market remains in relatively solid health employment growth

Times below are GBT / US Eastern time: 1400 / 0900 Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond President Thomas Barkin speaks on the economy in fireside chat before the Real Estate Roundtable 1500 / 1000 Federal Reserve Board Governor Adriana Kugler speaks on “Central Bank Independence and Economic Outlook” before the Latin American and Caribbean Economic

Reserve Bank of Australia Governor Bullock is speaking at a regulator event so we may not get anything on the economy or monetary policy. Later is the Australian jobs report for October. Expected to show still solid growth in employment. The resistance of the labour market has given the RBA room to hold its cash

The People’s Bank of China set the onshore yuan (CNY) reference rate for the trading session ahead. USD/CNY is the onshore yuan. Its permitted to trade plus or minus 2% from this daily reference rate.CNH is the offshore yuan. USD /CNH has no restrictions on its trading range.A significantly stronger or weaker rate than expected

NZD/USD not a lot changed. The kiwi$ lost ground with the broad US dollar bid. — The New Zealand Food Price Index (FPI) is a measure of the changes in the average price of food items sold in New Zealand. calculated and published monthly by Statistics New Zealandthe FPI tracks the prices of a basket

UBS is sticking to its bullish gold forecast. says the move higher for equities and lower for gold is a ‘highly optimistic’ view for lower policy and political risk, this is prematureexpect US yields and US dollar to move into downtrend, which will support goldgold fundamentals, as a hedge and diversity play, are intact This

More hawkish comments from the St Louis Fed President Inflation data is also stronger but has not yet changed view that policy is on a path to neutralThere is likely space for a gradual easing of policy towards neutral rateStronger data likely pushing Treasury yields higherToo soon to understand new administrationRising bond yields also offer

The dollar continues to push higher in the post-election period and in the case of USD/JPY, that momentum is helped by higher yields as well. The pair has been on a tear since October trading, racing up from 143.00 all the way to touching 156.00 earlier today. The break above 155.00 yesterday is a crucial

Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell delivers a speech on his economic outlook, followed by a question and answer session. Powell participates in “Global Perspectives” conversation before event hosted by the Dallas Regional Chamber, World Affairs Council of DFW and the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas@ 2000 GMT / 1500 US Eastern time While the Fed

The major US stock indices are giving up gains and backing off from record closing levels. NASDAQ index was up 77.08 points at session high which took the price to 19358.48. That would have closed above the high closing level of 19298.76 The index is now down -38.77 points in 19232.73. S&P index is down

Justin had the news from the People’s Bank of China here on Monday: PBOC governor will maintain yuan exchange rate at a reasonable, balanced level And on Wednesday we saw the Bank trying to support CNY at the reference rate setting: PBoC promised stronger damping to support CNY, and that’s what are seeing And again

Still no efforts from Japan to talk up the yen. The USD is stronger pretty much everywhere. USD/JPY has pooped above 156.00 and its straddling thereabouts as I post. No fresh news apart from whats been posted. Not that any is needed right now. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

The latest Labour Force report from the Australian Bureau of Statistics, for October 2024. Employment +15.9k expected +25.0k, prior +64.1k Unemployment Rate 4.1% expected 4.1%, prior 4.1% Participation Rate 67.1% expected 67.2%, prior 67.2% Full Time Employment +9.7k prior +51.6k A slightly softer employment report than we are accustomed to. Not a bad one. But

Mann spoke Wednesday: BOE’s Mann: I describe myself as an ‘activist’ rather than a ‘gradualist’ on ratesBOE’s Mann: Inflation has definitely not been vanquished Mann was the sole dissent at the previous BoE meeting, voting to keep the Bank rate on hold. Speaking again at 1300 GMT / 0800 US Eastern time: at the Society

New York Fed’s Williams speaking Thursday – Kugler, Barkin also (Powell too!)Australian jobs report recap – “remains in relatively solid health”Bank of England Monetary Policy Committee member Mann is speaking again on ThursdayPeople’s Bank of China has more work to do to support the yuanEuropean Central Bank President Lagarde and VP de Guindos speaking Thursday,

The price of gold traded as high as $2618.84. At session highs, the price was up $20.94 and it looked like the 3-day slide was going to be snapped. However, the price has since reversed back to the downside and the price is now trading down -$22.26 or -0.87% at $2575.49. Technically, the price has

St. Louis Fed Pres. Musalem is scheduled to speak at the top of the hour. Musalem is a voting member in 2025. Back on October 7, Musalem spoke and said: More rate cuts likely given economic outlook.Won’t predict timing or size of future Fed easings.Personal rate outlook is above Fed’s median view.Costs of easing too

US stocks mixed. S&P unchanged. Dow modestly higher. Nasdaq lower.The cabinet picks from Trump don’t sound like a guy who is looking for moderationGold reverses lower. On pace for the 4th day in a row lower5 reasons why the US dollar wrecking ball is in full swingMore from Musalem: Data since prior meeting suggests economy

The US major indices are closing mixed. The S&P is near unchanged. The Dow industrial average is modestly higher. The NASDAQ index is modestly lower. The small-cap Russell 2000 index slumped with the decline close to 1%. The final numbers are showing: Dow industrial average +47.21 points or 0.11% at 43958.19.S&P index is up 1.40

The rising USD continues to … rise still. EUR/USD is circa 1.0555 and at its lowest since November last year. The Federal Reserve appears to be on track for a December rate cut but its not bothering dollar bulls, taking their cues from the world of politics dollar-bostering Trump policies. Trump, of course, won’t in

Good morning, afternoon and evening all. Any charts, technical analysis, trade ideas, thoughts, views, ForexLive traders would like to share and discuss with fellow ForexLive traders, please do so: Seems to be the evergreen trade idea? This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

Risks to the jobs market have remain unchanged or have fallenFed may be on the ‘last mile’ to price stability, inflation expected to converge to 2% over the medium termMonetary policy well posited, Fed can ‘judiciously and patiently’ judge income data to decide on further rate cutsStrong economy on track for a ‘solid’ fourth quarterGrowth

Citi analysts suggest that while the USD/JPY may briefly surpass ¥155, any sustained rally in the dollar against the yen could be capped by potential intervention from the Japanese government and anticipated rate hikes by the Bank of Japan. USD/JPY breach of ¥155, Citi notes that the Bank of Japan may have a stronger incentive

UBS remain upbeat on further Federal Reserve interest rate cuts to come. Analysts at the bank acknowledge heightened concerns about inflation in the market, and also trimmed market pricing for cuts ahead. Ahead of Wednesday’s CPI report (Forexlive Americas FX news wrap 13 Nov: US CPI comes out as expected. USD continues rise) UBS points:

Bitcoin ran up to $93,500 in the US morning before some profit taking hit. When a second run at that level couldn’t crack it, a decent round of selling hit, taking it down to $91,000. It all looks like a rather standard move in a major breakout. The 61.8% retracement of the move on this

The data is a day later than normal this week due to the US holiday on Monday. The numbers via oilprice.com on Twitter: — Expectations I had seen centred on: Headline crude +0.1 mn barrelsDistillates +0.2 mn bblsGasoline +0.6 mn — This data point is from a privately-conducted survey by the American Petroleum Institute (API).

Rate cuts to date are an acknowledgement of growing confidence that inflation is on the path to 2% goalHope productivity growth can outrun the effects of slowing population growthWon’t let enthusiasm over rising productivity get ahead of data or commitment to reaching Fed goals There isn’t much of a hint on anything here. This article

Barclays has issued a note suggesting that the re-election of Trump is unlikely to significantly impact oil market fundamentals in the near term. The bank believes that current market dynamics are relatively stable and does not foresee major shifts tied to potential changes in U.S. leadership. Barclays is recommending a long position on December 2025

Eurostoxx -0.3%Germany DAX -0.2%France CAC 40 -0.1%UK FTSE +0.1%Spain IBEX flatItaly FTSE MIB -0.2% There’s some push and pull in the opening stages but the changes here don’t take away from the heavy selling yesterday. As mentioned since last week, the outlook for European indices remain challenging considering the more dour economic outlook in the

The price of Bitcoin moved above $70,000 again on November 5th, and $80,000 on November 10. The price broken $90,000 on November 12. Is Bitcoin 100K in the cards? The price has moved to a new all-time high of $91,945 – breaking above the high price from yesterday at $90,243 and finding more momentum. The

The USDJPY has seen a dip today that gave the sellers some short term control below 154.54, but momentum faded quickly and sellers have turned to buyers. The price has now moved back up toward the high for the day and also the high of a swing area at 155.21. The price is currently trading

The major US indices are modestly higher with gains less than 0.20% a snapshot of the market 15 minutes into the open is showing: Dow industrial average up 79.80 points or 0.18% at 43990.78.S&P index up 6.11 points or 0.10% at 5990.10NASDAQ index up 8.22 points or 0.04% at 19289.62 The small-cap Russell 2000 is

The Cleveland Fed is out with its inflation tracker and the numbers show inflation flattening above 2%. In particular, median CPI was at 4.09%, up from 4.08% y/y last month. It’s only declined marginally since June, when it was at 4.15%. Median CPI is the one-month inflation rate of the component whose expenditure weight is

Yesterday bitcoin bottomed early in New York trading and rallied throughout the day. The catalyst was likely flows into ETFs, though I’d note that for every buyer, there is a seller. This is the third test of $90K and there is a sense of inevitability about this mini-dam breaking. This article was written by Adam

The major European stock indices are closing the day makes with modest gains or losses: German Dax -56.57 points or -0.30% at 18977.08.France’s CAC -10.15 points or -0.14% at 7216.84UK’s FTSE 100 +4.58 points or 0.06% and 8030.34.Spain’s Ibex -21.90 points or -0.19% at 11360.50Italy’s FTSE MIB +100.38 points or 0.30% at the 33707.51 looking

John Thune (So Dakota) has been elected Senate Majority Leader. Is not universally loved amongst the Republicans especially the far right MAGA. The competitors were Senators John Cornyn of Texas and Rick Scott of Florida. Rick Scott was not much of a threat. Thune beat Cornyn in the dirrect secret ballot between the two. This

3.5% of debt in some kind of delinquency in Q3 vs 3.2% in Q2Growth in incomes has outstripped growth in debtData suggests rising debt burdens are manageableTotal Q3 aggregate debt up 0.8% vs Q2 to $17.94 trillion There is some deterioration here but it’s so slow that it’s hardly a factor for markets or the

A broader wave of US dollar buying combined with slumping oil prices and worries about Chinese growth have nudged USD/CAD above the 2022 high of 1.3978. USD/CAD has tried to get through this level many times in the past two years but hasn’t been able to crack it. So far there hasn’t been any follow

Fundamental Overview The puzzling weakness in the US Dollar following Trump’s victory looks more and more like it was just a “sell the fact” reaction. The greenback is now back in the driving seat, and we might have also seen some pre-positioning in the past couple of days into a potentially hot US CPI report

The EURUSD ran to a new low which extended to a low of 1.0555. That moved away from the 2024 old low at 1.06005. Recall yesterday, the price moved below that level to a low of 1.0594. In trading today the price moved to a new low of 1.0592 but each break failed. After the

There are still noticeable price pressures, especially in services sectorTrump’s tariffs may cause German economy to contractIf tariffs come into effect, it could cost Germany 1% in economic output And therein lies the dilemma for the ECB heading into next year I guess. The good news is that the disinflation process is still progressing, albeit

The US dollar is busting through some resistance levels. The euro is at the lowest in a year, helped by German 2024 GDP forecasts being dragged into negative territory with fiscal hawks likely to take over the government in February. What’s the catalyst on the move? It’s not clear as Treasury yields are down at

EURUSD Summary The EURUSD failed to break below 1.0601 (2024 lows) for the second time, bouncing back to 1.06428. Key Levels: Resistance: 1.0649 (May 1 low) 1.0665-1.0670 (June triple bottom Support: 1.0600. The old low for the year from APril The low from yesterday and today near 1.05926 Lower at 1.0483-1.0533 (swing area) Outlook: Buyers

Broader markets are still largely clinging on to the post-election sentiment this week. However, today will add something different to the mix as we will have the US CPI report in focus. While inflation numbers haven’t been too important in recent months, it is one that could still impact trading sentiment. That especially if the

For some context, these subsidies did come to an end in May but were reinstated in August through to October to cope with the warmer weather. Subsequently, they were continued until this year-end but the funds had to be drawn from reserves in the budget for the fiscal year that started in April. NHK is

Fox News reports that Trump will send a special envoy to negotiate a peace between Russia and Ukraine. “You’re going to see a very senior special envoy, someone with a lot of credibility, who will be given a task to find a resolution,” the report says. “You’re going to see that in short order.” In

Fundamental Overview The puzzling weakness in the US Dollar following Trump’s victory looks more and more like it was just a “sell the fact” reaction. The greenback is now back in the driving seat, and we might have also seen some pre-positioning in the past couple of days into a potentially hot US CPI report

$90,000 is a big milestone for bitcoin but it immediately calls to mind the barrier at the mother-of-all milestones. In general, the momentum and whatnot driving interest at something that’s rallies so much and has an obvious target is irresistible. This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

The picture in the major currencies space is not much changed at all from over five hours ago here. There have been some light extension of the ranges but overall, it’s more or less where we left off at the end of Asia trading. The dollar continues to stay more poised on the week, keeping

Fundamental Overview The puzzling weakness in the US Dollar following Trump’s victory looks more and more like it was just a “sell the fact” reaction. The greenback is now back in the driving seat, and we might have also seen some pre-positioning in the past couple of days into a potentially hot US CPI report

Expects inflation to moderate in FranceExpects French unemployment rate to go up to around 8% before falling back He is speaking somewhat in his capacity as Bank of France governor here. And the remarks aren’t anything that stand out. As things stand, traders have fully priced in a rate cut for December. The odds of

We hear from Kashkari just yesterday but he’s back on the wires today: There are still six weeks before the Fed’s next meeting with more data to comeI have confidence that inflation is headed in the right direction This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

Both the Cryptocurrencies as well as Foreign Exchange (Forex) markets offer thrilling means of earning profits on the price movements. But one huge difference between these markets is volatility. However, Forex traditional currency pairs are known to experience relatively stable price moves while cryptocurrencies, including Solana, are famous for their high volatility. While it might

The USD selling did not last long. EURUSD: EURUSD moved up to and through the next target at 1.0649, but not by much, the price has since rotated back down toward the 1.0600 level. The current price is trading at 1.0605. Break back below 1.0600 (low from August and old low for the year) and

Adding exotic currency pairs to a portfolio is a popular way to get exposed to a wider variety of assets. These pairs, which include currencies from emerging markets or smaller economies, offer unique opportunities due to their volatility and potential for high returns. For traders in regions like India and Southeast Asia, exotic pairs can

Tech sector shows mixed signals: Tesla accelerates while Google stumbles The US stock market today presents a diverse landscape of performances, with the technology sector exhibiting mixed momentum. Key players like Tesla and Google are moving in opposite directions, reflecting varying investor sentiments and market dynamics. 📈 Tesla Hits Acceleration in Consumer Cyclical Sector Highlighting

Trump statement (in summary): Elon Musk and Vivek Ramaswamy will lead the newly created Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE).Their mission is to dismantle government bureaucracy, reduce excess regulations, cut wasteful spending, and restructure federal agencies.This initiative is part of the broader “Save America” movement.Musk described this effort as potentially “The Manhattan Project” of the modern

With a 70-year legacy of offering investment solutions across diverse industries and asset classes, privately held VanEck now provides millions of customers access to SUI Investment firm VanEck has introduced a product representing SUI. VanEck, known for its financial products that provide access to Bitcoin, Ethereum, and Solana, now offers exposure to SUI, the token

There are no guaranteed trades in investing. Even “secure” strategies such as Straddles/Strangles, which involve buying a call and a put option on the same stock, can result in losses. The same is true for events. For example, many expected Treasury yields to fall once the Fed announced a change in monetary policy. But even

Over the pas two weeks, the big numbers have been falling like dominoes. Another one is teed up now as bitcoin trades up $1600 to $89,600. In Asia, it rose as high as $89,982 before retracing all the way to $84,500 at the start of US trading. The turn came just before US equities opened,

Fed will ‘most likely’ need more cuts but should ‘proceed cautiously’If Fed cuts too far past neutral, inflation could re-acclerateDifficult to know how many Fed rate cuts may be needed, and how soon they need to happenFed has made a great deal of progress in bringing inflation downFed not quite back to price stability yetUS

European trading will be a bit of a snoozer as such with a lack of headlines. But perhaps we might get some interesting market moves to talk about in the run up to the US CPI report. USD/JPY is now inching just above 155.00 for the first time since end July while EUR/USD is looking

Headlines: US inflation in focus for the day aheadWhat is the distribution of forecasts for the US CPI?US CPI data due Wednesday, the ranges of estimates (& why they’re crucial to know)ECB’s Villeroy says to expect more rate cutsECB’s Nagel: Core inflation rate is still quite highBOE’s Mann: Inflation has definitely not been vanquishedBOE’s Mann:

We had Fed speakers on Tuesday US time, Kashkari watered down the prospect of a December rate cut … didn;t rule it out but he sounds shaky: Fed’s Kashkari: The fundamentals seems strong and I’m optimistic that will continueFed’s Barkin: Fed in position to respond appropriately regardless of how economy evolvesFed’s Waller: Makes no comments

0945 GMT / 0445 US Eastern time – Bank of England policymaker Catherine Mann is a panellist on the Female Central Bankers panel organised by BNP Paribas’ Global Markets * The Bank of England cut last week Forexlive Americas FX news wrap 7 Nov: FOMC/BOE cuts by 25 basis points Expectations are for slower cuts

The October US CPI report is due at the bottom of the hour and eyes are mostly fixed on core CPI. The consensus is +0.3%, the same as in September. But more seriously, here is a WSJ graphic showing detailed CPI forecasts and it’s a good guide to the unrounded reading. The thing is, no

The North American session is beginning with the USD relatively steady. The EURUSD, GBPUSD, USDCHF, USDCAD, and NZDUSD are all within 0.10% of the closing levels from yesterday. The biggest mover is the USDJPY with a change of 0.21%. US CPI will be released at the bottom of the hour with the expectation of 0.2%

Later today, Wednesday, 13 November, we get the US consumer inflation data for October 2024 due at 1330 GMT, which is 0830 US Eastern time Previews posted already: US CPI to be released tomorrow at 8:30 AM. Expectations are for 0.2% MoMUS CPI data due Wednesday – possible upside surprise.US inflation data this week expected

Prior -10.8%Market index 192.4 vs 191.4 priorPurchase index 133.3 vs 130.8 priorRefinance index 506.0 vs 513.5 prior30-year mortgage rate 6.86% vs 6.81% prior After a big dive in mortgage applications in the week before, things are seen stabilising a bit more in the past week. However, the details show a bit of a mixed picture

There are just a couple to take note of, as highlighted in bold. They are both for EUR/USD at the 1.0600 and 1.0650 levels. The former in particular will continue to be a notable one, adding another layer to key support at the figure level for the time being. As such, the expiries are likely

ING remarks after the wages data from Australia earlier: Australia data – Wage Price Index for Q3 2024: +0.8% q/q (expected +0.9%, prior +0.8%)Australia – “Wage inflation is moderating as expected” ING says that year-on-year wage growth slowing to 3.5% is a step in the right direction for the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) to

Fed speakers on energy, the economy, and maybe policy due on WednesdayUS CPI data due Wednesday, the ranges of estimates (& why they’re crucial to know)AUD traders heads up – Reserve Bank of Australia Governor Bullock speaks ThursdayThe argument for a near-term Reserve Bank of Australia interest rate cut remains very thinJapan’s Seven & i

Due at 8.30 am US Eastern time (1330 GMT): For the full information on this post, why knowing the ranges is important etc, see this I posted earlier during the Asian session: US CPI data due Wednesday, the ranges of estimates (& why they’re crucial to know)Distribution of forecasts for the US CPI report ****

Headline CPI: Prior was +2.4% y/yCurrent y/y is +2.6%m/m reading at +0.2% vs +0.2% expectedMonth-over-month unrounded 0.2441 vs 0.1799% prior Core measures: Core CPI +3.3% vs +3.3% expectedCore CPI m/m +0.3% vs +0.3% expectedCore unrounded +0.2800% vs +0.3124% m/m priorReal weekly earnings +0.1% vs -0.1% prior (prior revised to +0.1%)Core services ex shelter +0.3% vs

Headline CPI reading not telling us that underlying inflation dynamics have been vanquishedServices inflation is pretty stickyEnergy prices are more likely to go up than downSees more volatility and upward bias to some inflation drivers Do keep in mind that Mann is arguably the most hawkish member among the BOE policy committee. So, her comments

The price of bitcoin has reached $90,000 level for the first time. The high price just reached $90,016, but has backed off and trades and $86,090 currently. The price broke above the $80,000 level for the first time during Monday’s trade. Just two days later the price has extended above the the next $10,000 increment.

The economy ministry notes that in light of the US election result, renewed uncertainty among German households and firms cannot be ruled out. It goes without saying that Trump tariffs on German exports is of course the big risk to watch out for. But indirectly, Trump’s tariffs on China will also have some impact on

Justin had the news from the People’s Bank of China here on Monday: PBOC governor will maintain yuan exchange rate at a reasonable, balanced level The PBOC governor Pan Gongsheng emphasized that the Bank will not let the yuan plummet without a fight: Will step up countercyclical adjustmentShould resolutely guard against the risk of exchange

The major US stock indices are all closing lower. No new records today. The final numbers are showing: Dow Industrial average -382.15 points or -0.86% at 43910.98S&P -17.36 points or -0.29% and 5983.99.NASDAQ index -17.36 points or -0.09% at 19281.40. The small-cap was 2000 with a decline of -43.13 points or -1.77% at 2391.84. This

In brief from WPAC’s note: September quarter Wage Price Index below the RBA’s expectation which pointed to a 0.9%qtr rise in both the September and December quarters of 2024Wage inflation peaked at 4.3%yr in December 2023 and has been drifting lower through 2024 Wage Price Index (WPI) rose 0.8% (3.5%yr) … The RBA is currently

Comments from the Minneapolis Fed President in conversation with Yahoo Finance. Contacts are optimisticWe have to wait and see what the new government policies are, we will have to wait and seeA one-time tariff increase in transitory but it can become tit-for-tat, right now we’re all just guessingImmigration could have a big effect but we

German DAX futures -0.2%French CAC 40 futures -0.4%UK FTSE futures -0.1% The CAC 40 index is now down to its lowest since mid-August while the DAX is eyeing its October lows of 18,911. This comes with US futures also marked down so far on the day. S&P 500 futures are lower by 0.3% as we

Japanese wholesale prices, the PPI or CGPI: +0.2% m/m expected 0.0%, prior 0.0% +3.4% y/y expected +3.0%, prior +2.8% The higher results will be a bit of a tailwind for the yen, at the margin. Not too much though, there is the huge monetary policy divergence that is weighing on the hapless yen to contend

Japan’s Seven & i Holdings is considering a management buyout to take itself private with funding from banks, Itochu Corp. and the founding Ito family in a transaction that could be worth US$58 billion “People with knowledge of the matter” cited in the reports via Nikkei and Bloomberg. The Japanese owner of 7-Eleven is considering

An ‘activist’ approach means to cut less until it is clear inflation persistence has been purgedI would be ready to cut rates in bigger steps when inflation risks have gone As mentioned, she’s arguably the most hawkish member on the policy committee. So, these comments need to be taken with that in consideration. Her comments

Leading online global trading provider HFM, a unified brand name of HF Markets Group, is committed to helping traders level up their trading by providing top-notch trading tools and services. Traders only need to open a live account and complete their registration to give their trading a boost, as they will instantly gain access to

Amazon’s Bezos sells US$1.25bn of shares. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

Why it’s important? The ranges of estimates are important in terms of market reaction because when the actual data deviates from the expectations, it creates a surprise effect. Another important input in market’s reaction is the distribution of forecasts. In fact, although we can have a range of estimates, most forecasts might be clustered on

Fundamental Overview Gold is now down almost 6% from the US election day. That shouldn’t be surprising as the last time we got a red sweep gold dropped by more than 16%. The reason is that a red sweep brings a more expansionary fiscal policy and should be not only positive for growth but also

China-based Construction Machinery and Equipment (CME) with the data from earlier this week. In October China’s excavator sales are estimated to have reached 16,791 units: that’s +15.1% y/y More notably, excavator sales in the Chinese domestic market are estimated at 8,266 units +21.6% y/y Excavator sales to the export market +9.46% y/y For the January-October

Announcement here: Trump names Elon Musk, Vivek Ramaswamy to lead Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE) DOGE pops, as intended I suspect: I posted last week the warning that we’d be getting tradeable volatility from trump like we did the first time around: Trump’s first term was characterised by policy-shift-by-tweet … This produced some wild swings

The dollar continues to sit in a good spot this week, holding gains ahead of the main event later today. It’s all about the US CPI report and markets are likely to remain more tentative up until then. As for the bigger picture, the post-election sentiment continues to play out for the most part and

Welcome to the US CPI Day! Inflation is back at the top of market’s focus after the Fed’s 50 bps cut in September, the acceleration in the US data and Trump’s victory. If we look at the markets, there’s been already some pre-positioning/hedging into a potentially higher than expected CPI print, so there’s some risk

Good morning, afternoon and evening all. Any charts, technical analysis, trade ideas, thoughts, views, ForexLive traders would like to share and discuss with fellow ForexLive traders, please do so: This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

The US CPI will be released tomorrow at 8:30 AM ET. What is expected? October Headline CPI expected to rise by 0.2% MoM, which is the same as last month. The forecasted range is 0.1 to 0.3%.YoY Headline CPI expected to increase to 2.6%, up from 2.4%, with a forecast range of 2.3 to 2.6%.

People’s Bank of China USD/CNY reference rate is due around 0115 GMT. The People’s Bank of China (PBOC), China’s central bank, is responsible for setting the daily midpoint of the yuan (also known as renminbi or RMB). The PBOC follows a managed floating exchange rate system that allows the value of the yuan to fluctuate

At 10 am Sydney time on Thursday, November 14, 2024, Panel Participation by RBA Governor Michele Bullock, at the ASIC Annual Forum, Sydneythat’s 2300 GMT, 1800 US Eastern time on Wednesday, November 13, 2024 Perhaps we’ll hear something on wages data from earlier today: Australia data – Wage Price Index for Q3 2024: +0.8% q/q

Via a Bank of America research note – analysts expect a 4% boost to forward earnings due to Trump’s corporate tax cut plans. This will be a tailwind for equities, at the margin. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

Australia data – Wage Price Index for Q3 2024: +0.8% q/q for the third consecutive quarter expected +0.9%, prior +0.8%Both the private sector and the public sector rose 0.8%, seasonally adjusted, for the quarter. +3.5% y/y, lowest annual rise for the series since December quarter 2022 and followed four consecutive quarters of annual wage growth

The People’s Bank of China set the onshore yuan (CNY) reference rate for the trading session ahead. USD/CNY is the onshore yuan. Its permitted to trade plus or minus 2% from this daily reference rate.CNH is the offshore yuan. USD /CNH has no restrictions on its trading range.A significantly stronger or weaker rate than expected

Deutsche Bank has revised its forecast for the European Central Bank’s (ECB) terminal rate, lowering its central-case projection from 2.25% to 1.50%. The bank now anticipates the ECB’s policy rate will dip slightly below the neutral rate by the end of 2025, rather than returning to neutral by mid-year as previously expected. This shift in

US indices close lower on the day. No new records today.Bitcoin trades above $90,000 for the first time. It broke the $80,000 level on MondayUS CPI to be released tomorrow at 8:30 AM. Expectations are for 0.2% MoMIt’s not a pretty picture in ChinaFed’s Kashkari: The fundamentals seems strong and I’m optimistic that will continueBofA:

The Chinese market and related global-growth proxies got excited about potential fiscal stimulus in October. After a flurry of buying, there has been some consolidation as we waited for the details. Those details came on Friday and just before that, the market tried to break higher in a front-run of potentially larger stimulus. Beijing didn’t

The New York Federal Reserve branch’s Roberto Perli is manager of the Fed’s System Open Market Account (SOMA). Recent quarter-end money market volatility not historically large.Still strong evidence reserve levels remain abundant.No imminent signs of issues for Fed to implement monetary policy.Recent quarter-end pressure was contained.Slow rise in repo rates has been orderly.Standing repo facility

There were numerous Fed speakers on Tuesday, US time: Fed’s Kashkari: The fundamentals seems strong and I’m optimistic that will continueFed’s Barkin: Fed in position to respond appropriately regardless of how economy evolvesFed’s Waller: Makes no comments on economy or monetary policy outlook and we get one more today in Asia: 2200 GMT / 1700

CPI data from the US due today, Wednesday, November 13, 2024. Greg popped up a preview earlier: US CPI to be released tomorrow at 8:30 AM. Expectations are for 0.2% MoM In a recent note, BMO previewed the data also. Analysts at the bank suggest that any significant influence from recent storms on inflation data

BofA suggests staying short on CHF, particularly against USD and GBP, as post-election volatility subsides and G10 rate repricing supports a weaker CHF. While political risks may pose a minor obstacle, BofA sees CHF depreciation as likely due to policy divergence, with recent fiscal stimulus in the UK reinforcing the case for long GBP/CHF. Key

The high yield close for the 10-year note last week reached 4.433%. The current yield is currently at 4.4315%, up 12.3 basis points. A close above would be the highest close going back to July 1, 2024 when the close came in at 4.465%. This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

The USDCHF has moved up to a high of 0.88357. That is just short of a high swing area on the daily chart above at 0.88379. Get above that level and stay above, opens the door for more upside momentum. ON the downside, the closest risk is the 200 day MA, but more conservative risk

Amazon is reporting that is AI business is growing at triple-digit percentages. This is according to the Business Insider. The shares of Amazon moved to a new all-time high on Thursday of last week at $212.25. Since then the price has rotated lower (working on its third day to the downside) with the shares currently

The AUDUSD has moved lower to a swing area low at 0.65357. The high of the swing area comes in at 0.65537. It would take a move above that level and then the 61.8% at 0.6575, to give the buyers more confidence and cause the sellers to have some cause for pause. ON the downside,

Today the main highlight was the release of the UK labour market report. The data was pretty mixed but leaning more on the dovish side. We don’t have much for the rest of the day as we just get some low tier releases like the German ZEW and the US NFIB Small Business Optimism Index.

The major European indices took a hit on Tuesday, with the German DAX of falling -2.13% France’s CAC -2.69%. For the DAX it was the largest decline going back to August.. For the Cac, it was the largest decline going back to July 2023 Concerns about the implications of Donald Trump’s return to the White

LiteFinance has entered into a multi-year partnership with Premier League football club Leicester City as their Official Trading Partner. We are excited to announce that LiteFinance has entered into a multi-year partnership with Premier League football club Leicester City as their Official Trading Partner. This collaboration marks a significant milestone for LiteFinance as we expand

The USD is moving higher. The EURUSD is against the 2024 low at 1.0600.The USDJPY is trading to new highs and has entered into a swing area between 154.54 in 155.09. The high price last week reached 154.704 and is the next upside target. For the GBPUSD it is trading to new lows and moving

The USDJPY is extending to a new session high after testing is 61.8% retracement earlier in the day at 153.397 and finding willing buyers. The market to the upside has now taken the price to a high of 154.75. That has extended above the high price from last week at 154.704. The buyers are making

Stanley Black & Decker is said to be when price increases in anticipation of US tariffs. The company expects a $200 million impact on operating income. As a result they are looking toward raising prices to offset the tariff impact. Pres. elected Tromp will take over on January 20, 2025 (69 days from now). This

Up, up and away. As far as Trump trades go in the post-election period, Bitcoin is arguably one of the biggest winners. The cryptocurrency is continuing to surge to fresh record highs, now closing in on the $90,000 mark. Compared to last Tuesday, Bitcoin is up a whopping 32% now as it eyes the next

Warped Games, an indie game studio consisting of web3 and veteran game developers who have a legacy in creating player-focused games like LEGO Universe, Jumpgate, and Dragons and Titans, is on a mission to onboard millions of players to expand the Warped Universe, an immersive blockchain-powered game where players’ actions and decisions shape the environment

Prior 4.0%Employment change 219k vs 290k expectedPrior 373kAverage weekly earnings +4.3% vs +3.9% 3m/y expectedPrior +3.8%; revised to +3.9%Average weekly earnings (ex bonus) +4.3% vs +4.7% 3m/y expectedPrior +4.9%October payrolls change -5kPrior -15k; revised to -9k The UK jobless rate jumps up with payrolls for October once again showing a net decline, though the number

Prior was -7.0% (revised to -6.3%)Non-residential permits +18.0% to C$5.2BResidential permits +7.5% to C$7.7B Details: Ontario (+25%) leads gains in both residential and non-residential sectorsInstitutional building booming: +85.9% m/m, driven by healthcare facilitiesGains in the institutional component (+$824.9 million). However, industrial (-$17.6 million) and commercial (-$9.9 million) construction intentions edged down.Industrial permits remain elevated after

The Journal speculates on Buffett’s largest ever pile of cash. The Wall Street Journal is gated, but here is a quick summary of the pice: Warren Buffett’s Berkshire Hathaway holds $325 billion in cash, mostly in Treasury bills. It remains cautious on new investments. Berkshire recently sold parts of its holdings in Apple and Bank

Wall Street Journal (gated) with the report. In brief: The plan under consideration would merge major Russian oil companies Rosneft, Gazprom Neft, and Lukoil into a single entity to strengthen control over global energy markets and support Russia’s economy during wartime. The merged company would become the world’s second-largest crude producer, behind Saudi Aramco, and

And they are off… US stocks are officially open and the major indices are marginally higher after closing at record levels yesterday. The Dow is higher. the S&P is trading above and below unchanged while the NASDAQ index is also trading above or below unchanged. The small-cap Russell 2000 sniffed its all-time record high from

Hello, this is Itai Levitan at ForexLive.com. Today, I’m diving into Natural Gas Futures (NG), which are trading around 2.92 as of yesterday’s close. This analysis will be relevant to those of you looking at CFDs, futures themselves, or stocks related to natural gas. Here’s a detailed view of my approach: Natural Gas Futures Overview

OPEC cuts 2024 global oil demand growth forecast to 1.82 million BPD (prev. 1.93 milliong BPD). OPEC cuts 2025 global oil demand growth forecast to 1.54 million BPD (prev. 1.64 million BPD). OPEC says its crude oil production averaged 26.53 million BPD in October 2024, up 466,000 BPD from September led by Libya. This article

One year inflation expectations 2.9% versus 3.0% last month. That is the lowest in four yearsThree-year inflation expectations 2.5% versus 2.7% last monthFive-year inflation expectations 2.8% versus 2.9% last month other details : Consumers in October saw lower likelihood of missing a minimum debt payment for the first time in five monthsConsumers in October saw

Hedge fund titan John Paulson is dropping out of the running for Treasury Secretary. “My complex financial obligations would prevent me from holding an official position in President Trump’s administration at this time,” he said. Now that’s obviously damage control as he lobbied hard for the position but seems to have lost. Last week I

The USDCAD has backed backs off from ceiling area again. That area comes between 1.3945 and 1.3958. The subsequent move to the downside has the pair heading toward 200 and 100-hour MA support targets at 1.39054 and 1.3898 respectively (green and blue lines on the chart below). A move below that level would target the

Is Google Stock a Buy or Sell? Hello, this is Itai Levitan at ForexLive.com. Today, I’m analyzing whether Google stock (Alphabet Inc.) is a buy or sell, and my take may surprise you. Unlike many who are looking to buy now, I’m approaching this with a lot more patience. In this update, I’ll walk you

The EURUSD is pushing against its 2024 low at 1.0601. A break below that level would open the door for further downside momentum. A move to new laws would take the price to the lowest level since November 2, 2023. There is not a lot support technically until a swing area near 1.05158 and 1.05316.

People’s Bank of China USD/CNY reference rate is due around 0115 GMT. The People’s Bank of China (PBOC), China’s central bank, is responsible for setting the daily midpoint of the yuan (also known as renminbi or RMB). The PBOC follows a managed floating exchange rate system that allows the value of the yuan to fluctuate

The S&P 500 touched a record just after the open but sellers crept in thereafter and now we’ve hit some stops through 6000 on the cash market. Chipmakers are a drag with Nvidia, Intel and Broadcom among those lower. The market has gotten some support from Trump trades but those look like retail piling in.

Tech giants and industrials lead as Tesla takes a dip The US stock market today offers a mixed bag of performances, with major tech players showing resilience, contrasted by notable losses in the auto manufacturing sector. Investors are navigating this patchwork of fortunes with keen attention to sector dynamics and broader market trends. 📈 Technology

The NFIB Small Business Optimism Index rose by 2.2 points in October to 93.7. This is the 34th consecutive month below the 50-year average of 98. The Uncertainty Index rose seven points to 110, the highest reading recorded. A seasonally adjusted net negative 20% of small business owners reported higher nominal sales in the past

A light calendar ahead. With USD/JPY rising back towards 154 again be on the alert for ‘intervention’ type comments from Japanese authorities today. This snapshot from the ForexLive economic data calendar, access it here. The times in the left-most column are GMT. The numbers in the right-most column are the ‘prior’ (previous month/quarter as the

Fed’s Waller is speaking but makes no comment on monetary or economic policy in his prepared remarks. He does say: private sector best suited to innovate on payment systemsFed ready to support private innovation, mindful of financial stability.Government should have clear objective when providing financial services.There are times when government can address market inefficienciesStill does

Richmond Fed Pres. parking is speaking and says: Fed is in position to respond appropriately regardless of how economy involves.US economy looks pretty goodLabor market is resilient.From here, labor market mighty be fine or may continue to weaken.Inflation might be coming under control or might risk getting stuck above Fed 2% target.Feds focus may turn

The USDCAD moved higher in the Asian session and extended above the highs over the last few weeks between 1.3945 and 1.3958. The high price extended to 1.39664 but fell short of the 2022 high which came in at 1.3977. The inability to move higher turn the buyers to sellers, and the price has rotated

As the North American session begins, the bond traders return after a day off in observance of Veterans Day. Yields are higher to start their trading week with the 2 year up 6.5 basis points at 4.319% and the 10 year up 6.3 basis points at 4.371%. The 2 year yield has moved to a

OPEC cuts global oil demand growth forecasts for a fourth monthThe importance of market timing: MSTR stock case studyUS October NFIB small business optimism index 93.7 vs 91.5 priorGermany November ZEW survey current conditions -91.4 vs -85.9 expectedBOE’s Pill: Further rate cuts likely to be a gradual processECB’s Rehn: Rate cuts will depend on our

Trump’s victory was already a net negative for China in fears of tariffs that will come. However, Chinese markets will now have to add more disappointment from Beijing’s stimulus measures to the equation. It’s not just in terms of the announcement but even recent data hasn’t been that encouraging. Despite easing measures, new yuan loans

Goldman Sachs sees scope for continued GBP outperformance on the crosses, supported by a strong global risk environment, the BoE’s gradual rate-cut approach, and a favorable UK growth outlook relative to Europe. These factors, combined with resilience to geopolitical risks, suggest GBP strength particularly against EUR. Key Points: Global Risk and Positive Beta: GBP’s positive

Fundamental Overview Bitcoin is now up almost 30% since the election day as the bullish momentum in the cryptocurrency exploded following Trump’s victory. This shouldn’t be surprising given that Trump vowed to make the US the crypto capital of the planet. Moreover, it looks like the US economy continues not only to do well but

It is just a question of how far and how fastRate cut last week does not mean that the job is doneLabour market data today show pay growth still at high levelsThere is still some work to be done on underlying domestic inflation pressures All that being said, Pill argues that there has been “substantial”

German DAX futures -0.9%French CAC 40 futures -0.8%UK FTSE futures -0.4% It is a case of easy come, easy go for European equities. As mentioned yesterday, as much there is optimism in the overall equities space, the European landscape might prove to be a challenging one considering the circumstances and outlook surrounding the euro area

Introduction to Amega Amega is a multi-award-winning global financial broker, authorized, licensed, and regulated by the Mauritius Financial Services Commission under investment license No. GB22200548. Its mission is to make trading simple and accessible to traders of all levels and backgrounds, through the introduction of new technologies, groundbreaking innovations, and a client-first mentality. Amega prides

In the kickstart video, I take a look at the 3 major currency pairs: EUR/USD Summary The EUR/USD continued its downward trend due to concerns over slower economic growth and increased tariffs under President-elect Trump. Key Points: Initially rose in the Asian session, but sellers took control near 1.0665-1.06703 swing area. That area was the

A weekend note from noted analyst Ed Yardini with a strong bullish outlook on US equities. Forecasts: S&P 500 to 6,100 for the end of 20247000 for end 20258,000 for 202610,000 by the end of the decade Citing: “We expect to see animal spirits in measures of consumer and business optimism in coming months as

The dollar continues to dominate proceedings in the post-election period, holding slight gains again today. Fedspeak will be one to watch in the day ahead but I reckon US data will take on more importance in trading this week. We will be getting CPI, PPI, and retail sales data among other things over the next

The pace of the moves depends on the dataWe are data dependent but not data point dependentGrowth outlook has deteriorated due to manufacturing sectorIf disinflation stays on track, it would make a case for further rate cutsWe could be leaving restrictive territory in the spring of 2025The last thing we need now is yet another

Eurostoxx -1.0%Germany DAX -1.0%France CAC 40 -1.0%UK FTSE -0.3%Spain IBEX -0.9%Italy FTSE MIB -0.9% European stocks continue to see a rather mixed mood play out since the US election result. Trump tariffs continue to be a key consideration to the flagging outlook and that is weighing up against stronger earnings and more ECB rate cuts.

The MSTR chart is a perfect example of the importance of market timing. The MSTR stock did nothing for almost two decades! Imagine investing in it early and waiting 20 years to get a return. If you want to have conviction in your ideas, you need to know what moves your stocks and position for

Prior -86.9Economic sentiment 7.4 vs 13.0 expectedPrior 13.1 Poor, poor figures and it once again highlights the negative conditions as well as outlook percolating in the German economy. With Trump tariffs set to come into the picture next year, investors are certainly going to grow more worried about that in the months ahead. This article

Fundamental Overview The puzzling weakness in the US Dollar following Trump’s victory looks more and more like it was just a “sell the fact” reaction. The greenback is now back in the driving seat, and we might also be seeing some pre-positioning into a potentially hot US CPI report tomorrow. At the latest Fed’s decision,

0900 GMT / 0400 US Eastern time: Olli Rehn, Governor of the Bank of Finland, and Bank of England Chief Economist Huw Pill speak on a panel at a conference organised by UBS in London As Governor of the Bank of Finland Rehn is a member of the European Central Bank monetary policy board, the

The word on the street is that it might take place in mid-February but that is also dependent on when chancellor Olaf Scholz will be expected to face a vote of confidence. As things stand, the latter is scheduled for 15 January next year. If that is brought forward, then there is a good chance

Japanese PM Shigeru Ishiba announced a US$65 billion (10 trillion yen) plan to boost Japan’s chip and AI industries, aiming for completion by fiscal 2030. In summary: The plan seeks to secure Japan’s chip supply chain amidst global trade tensions, with a focus on mass production of next-gen chips. Key beneficiaries include chip foundry venture

Fundamental Overview TSLA is now up more than 40% since the election day as the bullish momentum in the stock exploded following Trump’s victory. This shouldn’t be surprising given that Elon Musk bet big on Trump and the market is now rewarding it. It looks like the US economy continues not only to do well

Fundamental Overview The puzzling weakness in the US Dollar following Trump’s victory looks more and more like it was just a “sell the fact” reaction. The greenback is now back in the driving seat, and we might also be seeing some pre-positioning into a potentially hot US CPI report tomorrow. At the latest Fed’s decision,

In a big step for decentralized technology, Deutsche Telekom MMS has partnered with Meta Pool as part of its Enterprise Node Operator (ENO) program, becoming the first telecommunications giant to operate a validator node on the NEAR blockchain. This collaboration not only enhances NEAR’s network security and decentralization but also signals a new era of

The pullback in gold continues to run as price is now starting to dip to some interesting levels. The October low of $2,604 is now under scrutiny on the daily chart above with price dipping below the $2,600 mark for the first time since September. It’s a testing time for gold as the post-election period

Good morning, afternoon and evening all. Any charts, technical analysis, trade ideas, thoughts, views, ForexLive traders would like to share and discuss with fellow ForexLive traders, please do so: This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

Bitcoin is soaring while gold slumps. The thing about moves of this magnitude is there are always stories about for ‘why’ this is happening. A fancier term is narrative. There are often multiple, sometimes even conflicting narratives. Here’s my narrative for why gold is falling. The metal saw its biggest price drop in 3+ years:

National Australia Bank monthly survey of business, for October 2024 Business Confidence +5, highest in nearly two years prior -2 Business Conditions +7 prior+7 — Some of the sub indexes: sales +1 to +13 (a strong reading)profitability steady at +5employment intentions -2 to +3growth in input costs slowing to 0.9% q/q, from 1.3% in Septembergrowth

Prior +1.6%HICP +2.4% vs +2.4% y/y prelimPrior +1.8% No change to the initial estimates but core annual inflation is seen at 2.9%, up from the 2.7% reading in September. So, that’s something to take note of. This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

Japanese PM Ishiba spoke on Monday. He said the government planned to meet with business and labour union representatives later this month to discuss next year’s annual wage negotiations. Achieving sustained wage increases has been a priority for the government and Bank of Japan. Rising living costs have hit households, weighing on consumption and the

The People’s Bank of China set the onshore yuan (CNY) reference rate for the trading session ahead. USD/CNY is the onshore yuan. Its permitted to trade plus or minus 2% from this daily reference rate.CNH is the offshore yuan. USD /CNH has no restrictions on its trading range.A significantly stronger or weaker rate than expected

The weekly ANZ-Roy Morgan Australian Consumer Confidence survey. 86.7 prior 86.5 ANZ notes: continues to trend upConfidence amongst outright homeowners and those paying off a mortgage reached its highest (4wma) since just after the RBA started lifting the cash rate in 2022 This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

There are times when the fundamentals and technicals align, the past week has certainly been one of those moments in bitcoin. The election of a crypto-friendly Republican slate combined with the break of a long-term range has been rocket fuel for bitcoin and it’s now above $85,000 for the first time ever. I’ll stand by

Euro area growth is projected to be sluggishSees downside risks to growthWaiting on December projections for a better picture of where we stand So far, he’s not saying anything to jolt market pricing. And that’s the other main consideration for any of their communications before making policy decisions. As such, a 25 bps rate cut

USD/JPY is back at its overnight high above 153.90. Apart from what has already been posted there is no fresh news. I’m wary of intervention type comments with yen weakening rapidly again. 15 minute candles: This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

Fed officials didn’t schedule any speeches today because of the Veteran’s Day holiday, but rest assured, they’re eager to hit the wires again. The next Fed decision is December 18 and the market has priced an 85% chance of a rate cut but beyond that, the market is far less certain. If the Fed wants

Heads up for a barrage of Fed speakers due Tuesday 12 November 2024: 10:00 AM ET / 1500 GMT Fed’s Waller (Governor, Voter) speech (the topic is ‘payments’) 10:15 AM ET / 1515 GMT Fed’s Barkin (Richmond Fed President, non-voter) speech 2:00 PM ET / 1900 GMT Fed’s Kashkari (Minneapolis Fed President, non-voter) 5:00 PM

JP Morgan nominate the yield that will signal rally exhaustion is the 5% level on the 10-year Treasury. “We think that around 5% the impact of bond yields on equity valuations starts to turn, from positive/reflationary one, into the rising concerns over the sustainability of the upcycle and the increasing risk of accidents” The background

Prepare for a Wave of Fed Speakers on November 12, 2024Bullish Forecast: S&P 500 to Hit 10,000 by 2030ICYMI-Russia considering merging its oil companies into world’s 2nd-biggest crude producerBank of England / Bank of Finland speakers combine for a panel discussion TuesdayFears for China on US tariffs are overblownChina plans further cuts to house buying

Australia Westpac Consumer Confidence Index for November 2024 +5.3% m/m prior +6.2% 94.6 prior 89.8 — Earlier data from Australia today: Australian Consumer Confidence continues to trend up, but still deeply pessimistic at 86.7 This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

The pair saw a bit of a bounce back the day after the US election result but that was arrested closer to the 1.3000 level alongside the 100-day moving average (red line) last week. Since then, sellers are back in control with price keeping lower again today and poised for a third straight day of

There are just a couple to take note of on the day, as highlighted in bold. And they are both for EUR/USD at the 1.0600 and 1.0625 levels. The pair is being pressured to the downside, touching its lowest levels since April now as the dollar continues to rampage forward. As such, that will put

A note via Bank of America economists on expectations and wariness on US October CPI data due Wednesday at 8.30 am US Eastern time. BoA expect core CPI to show an increase of 0.3% m/m month holding at 3.3% y/ywould be the third consecutive month with a 3.3% core reading BoA say that looking ahead,

Bloomberg reporting, citing unnamed sources. Regulators are developing a proposal that would enable major cities, such as Shanghai and Beijing, to reduce the deed tax for buyers to as low as 1%, down from the current rate of up to 3% At the margin this is a boost for domestic demand. Mainland equities have opened

Bloomberg (gated) interview with Robert Friedland, the founder of Ivanhoe Mines. In brief: China “exports to the US are much lower than they were in the first Trump administration. So they have a lot less sensitivity to tariffs in the US than seven or eight years ago.” “China is still taking a number of steps

The price of WTI crude oil is settling it $68.04. That is down $2.34 or -3.32%. The low price for the day has reached $67.94. The high price was up $70.53. Technically, the price high today stalled against its 200 hour moving average currently moving higher at $70.94. Sellers leaned near the moving average level

Gold has been trending higher for a while now as traders hopped on the risk/safety trade going into the US election. Also higher inflation fear may have conttibuted. Finally, technicals were a help. Looking at the daily chart below, apart from a day or two in February, the price has traded above the 100-day MA

New Zealand Card Retail Sales – for purchases made in New Zealand on debit, credit and store cards. -1.1% y/y in October prior was -5.6% y/y in September For the m/m, +0.6% prior +0.1% ** Card spending data covers around 68% of core retail sales in NZ. Its used as the main retail sales indicator

Goldman Sachs: 3 reasons why GBP set to continue outperforming on crossesTuesday features a full slate of FOMC speakers Markets: Bitcoin up 14% to record $87,200WTI crude down $2.21 to $68.17Bond market closed for holidayGold down $58 to $2625S&P 500 flatRussell 2000 +1.6% US and Canadian newsflow was extremely light on Monday in large part

Justin had the news from the People’s Bank of China here: PBOC governor will maintain yuan exchange rate at a reasonable, balanced level PBOC governor Pan Gongsheng emphasized the Bank will not let the yuan plummet without a fight: Will step up countercyclical adjustment Should resolutely guard against the risk of exchange rate overshoot With

Data via Commonwealth Bank of Australia, one of Australia’s largest four banks. The CommBank Household Spending Insights (HSI) index rose by 0.8% in October, partially offsetting a -0.9% decline in September. Spending Categories: Ten out of twelve categories showed growth, with notable increases in:Household goods: +2.5%, driven by online marketplaces, hardware, and discount stores.Recreation: +1.6%,

More records are reached today: Dow industrial average closes over 44,000 for the first time everS&P index closes above the 6000 level the first time everNASDAQ index closes at a new record level as well For the Russell 2000 it lasts record close was back on November 8, 2021 at 2442.21. The index closed at

Four years ago I wrote about: Why Joe Biden could be the most-bullish US President for oil in history. He was. Between his election and today, the price of crude nearly doubled. Shares of the XLE oil company ETF more than tripled. Of course, my case wasn’t really about Biden, it was more about the

Sell Amazon soon if it climbs to $217: Key levels and strategies for medium-term investors Hello, Itai Levitan here at ForexLive.com 👋, examining why Amazon stock could be a sell around $217. Currently priced just under $209, Amazon might see some upward momentum, but $217 is where profit-takers might jump in. If you’re a medium-term

It is not useful for central banks to lock themselves into forward-looking communicationBetween now and the next decision, there may be changes in conditions that render current communication to be invalidSNB had made “absolutely no commitment” to its next course of actionEverything will depend on conditions when we assess the situation in DecemberExpects franc to

USD/JPY is nearly 100 points hihger on the session. The only items of significance we’ve had today are the leadership vote coming up in parliament: Japan Prime Minister Ishiba faces leadership vote in parliament today Which seems to be dipping into the sordid/farcical: Head of key Japan opposition party admits to extra-marital affair And BOJ

The major European stock indices are closing with solid gains led by the Italy’s FTSE MIB up 1.56%. Both the German DAX and France’s CAC enjoyed gains of 1.2%. The final numbers are showing: German DAX +1.22%France’s CAC, +1.2%UK’s FTSE 100 +0.65%Spain’s Ibex +0.40%Italy’s FTSE MIB +1.56% Looking at benchmark 10 year yields, yields are

Fundamental Overview The price action in copper remains choppy as the market continues to question Chinese economic growth and stimulus. On the other hand, we have also Trump’s victory and fears of a trade war. Copper has been tightly correlated to the Chinese stock market in recent years which just shows the strong dependence of

Gold futures warning: bull flag breakdown points to further downside risk for GC traders 📉 Gold futures (GC) have recently broken out of a significant bull flag formation, and after a strong rally, prices have now pulled back, raising concerns among traders and investors. Let’s dive into the details and what it means for those

USD/CAD trading could be sapped today by holidays but the pair remains dangerously close to a major break. The 35 pip rise today brings the pair to 1.3941 and within striking distance of the 2022 high of 1.3977. It’s chopped around these levels since late October but has been reluctant to break through. The market

The price of crude oil is trading down $-2.20 or -3.12% at $68.20. That’s the lowest level since October 30. The price reached a peak on Thursday at $72.84. That the price briefly above its 38.2% retracement of the move down from the July high at $72.59. However on Friday the price fell below its

Fundamental Overview Crude oil continues to display a rangebound price action as it struggles to break above the key 72.00 resistance. The Trump’s victory might be seen as bearish in the short term for fear of the tariffs and a potential slowdown in global growth as other countries retaliate. It’s worth remembering that in 2016,

Gold and bitcoin have been rallying together all year but they’re headed in different directions today. Bitcoin jumped on the weekend and hit a record $82,500 today but gold is backing off, down $42 to a session low of $2641. Some stops were hit in the past few minutes as it edged through last week’s

The USD is higher in trading today as the Trump trade continues. HIgher USD. Higher stocks. Bonds we don’t know as the bond market is closed for Veterans Day today. Gold is lower but bitcoin in higher. In this video, I take a look at the EURUSD, USDJPY and GBPUSD from a technical perspective. EURUSD:

The USDCHF has moved higher in trading today and in the process moved above the swing highs from last week and swing area between 0.8772 to 0.8776. That area is now a close risk and bias-defining level. Staying above is more bullish. The move above that area today has led to an increase in momentum

Rumours around: State media reports that China is likely to implement stronger fiscal policies next yearMay actively utilize expanded deficit room. I haven’t found the source for this yet. This’ll be good as we haven’t had a huge rug pull since, errr, Friday: Chinese yuan falls as NPC announcement lacks oomph so far This article

US stock markets opened strongly to the upside, led by a 1.1% rally in the Russell 2000, but there are signs of fatigue setting in. The Nasdaq opened higher but is now down 0.1% as shares of Nvidia fall 1.4%. It’s been a one-way market since the election and Trump trades — like Tesla —

Gold is down another 0.7% today as a firmer dollar and higher yields since the election looks to be weighing. Alternative flows into Trump trades such as Bitcoin and stocks are also arguably in play, with gold not quite favoured as much in that sense. But how are things playing out on the charts? The

Reuters carried the report, ICYMi: Department of Commerce sent a letter to TSMC imposing export restrictions on certain sophisticated chips, of 7 nanometer or more advanced designs, destined for China that power AI accelerator and graphics processing units (GPU), according to a person familiar with the matter. Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co., the world’s largest maker

It’s Veterans Day in the US and Remembrance Day in Canada. It’s one of those holidays that’s not quite a holiday as stock markets will trade normally but the bond market is closed. It’s also one of those holidays where government offices are closed, which means there is no economic data. So it all adds

EURUSD: The EURUSD fell below the triple bottom from three weeks in June between 1.0665 and 1.0670. That opens the door for more downside probing the only levels left from the 2024 trading range was the low from May 1 at 1.0649. Below that, and the lows for the year come in at 1.0600 to

The dollar is trading just a little higher to start the day, seeing slight gains against the euro, pound and franc now. USD/JPY had already been higher since Asia trading here, and is keeping those gains. The pair is up 0.7% to 153.65 currently. Meanwhile, EUR/USD is starting to dip lower to 1.0685 at the

Prior +6.8%New yuan loans ¥0.5 trillionPrior ¥1.59 trillion This brings the year-to-date total for new yuan loans to ¥16.52 trillion, with the October estimate coming in slightly lower than the expected figure of ¥0.7 trillion. Broad money growth is seen rebounding on a year-on-year basis but China will be hoping to translate that to stronger

Today is going to be another synthetic Sunday in terms of data releases as not only we have an empty calendar but we have also the US on holiday. The US stock market will follow regular hours but the bond market will remain closed. The main focus in the markets remains the same: the red

The price of bitcoin is trading to a new fresh session high and is above the $83,000 level. The price is currently trading at $83,050. That’s up about $2625. The high price has reached $83,139. Looking at the hourly chart below, the price extends above a channel high on the run to the upside. That

German DAX futures +0.5%UK FTSE futures +0.5% This comes with US futures also keeping a little higher, up 0.2% currently. For European stocks, they had more of a back and forth week especially the DAX amid the US election results and German government implosion. The push and pull only resulted in the index ending last

Headlines: Dollar stays poised to start the new weekGold pullback might prove to be timely for dip buyersGold Technical Analysis – The Fed might be forced to pause earlier than expectedReminder: It is a partial US market holiday todayWeekly update on interest rate expectationsJapan parliament votes to keep Ishiba as prime ministerPBOC governor will maintain

Fundamental Overview Gold eventually dropped by almost a hundred dollars following Trump’s victory and the red sweep as the market scaled back some more the expected rate cuts in 2025. In fact, right now the market sees basically just two rate cuts in 2025 compared to the Fed’s projections of four. In the bigger picture,

Eurostoxx +0.7%Germany DAX +0.9%France CAC 40 +0.8%UK FTSE +0.6%Spain IBEX +0.7%Italy FTSE MIB +0.9% US futures are also keeping a slightly more optimistic mood for now, continuing the momentum from last week. So, I guess that’s helping. But from a structural perspective, I would still argue that the outlook remains challenging for European indices going

From earlier: Japan Prime Minister Ishiba faces leadership vote in parliament today This comes after the election results last month, which saw Ishiba’s Liberal Democratic Party lose its majority alongside coalition partner Komeito. Ishiba’s re-election is more or less expected, but his tenure as prime minister now will be filled with many hurdles. He will

New Zealand Inflation Forecast for Q4 2024: 2 yrs 2.12%, jumping from the previous quarter prior 2.03% 1 yr 2.05%, contrasts with a drop from the previous quarter survey prior 2.4% NZD/USD hasn’t really moved on the data. The RBNZ is expected to cut its cash rate again at its November 27 meeting. This article

Commerzbank says the scope for the US dollar to rise further is limited, saying Trump’s main macroeconomic impacting police s will likely be weaker than the bluster: import tariffs may well be much less comprehensive than anticipatedon immigration, there will be some deportations but not enough to generate significant wage pressurewhile Trump’s policies are inflationary,

The Wall Street Journal with the article: To offset the potential hit to the already wobbly Chinese economy, the Xi leadership is considering plans to shower American allies in Europe and Asia with tariff cuts, visa exemptions, Chinese investments and other incentives, according to people close to Beijing’s decision-making. The Journal is gated, but in

There is just one to take note of, as highlighted in bold. That being for EUR/USD at the 1.0700 level. The daily lows last week were held by the figure level, so the expiries will add another layer to that as we get the new week underway at least. With the bond market absent to

Japanese lawmakers will vote today, Monday, November 11, 2024, whether Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba remains the country’s Prime Minister. Ishiba called a snap election when he won the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) contest for leadership At that election, the party lost its lower house majority that held since 2012The LDP and coalition partner New Komeito

BTC had a tailwind into the US election, and now after. Trump’s win is being viewed as a major positive. That’s one narrative, there are many others! Update: This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

The Bank of Japan Summary is here from earlier: BOJ Summary (Oct.): Yen’s depreciation has significant effects Reuters have a brief recap up, with the headline: BOJ divided on rate hike timing, October summary shows Highlighting: “The Bank should consider further rate hikes after pausing to assess developments in the U.S. economy,” one member was

Will step up countercyclical adjustmentShould resolutely guard against the risk of exchange rate overshootTo strengthen financial oversight oversight comprehensively to prevent systemic risksWill strengthen consistency of macroeconomic policies to form synergy between monetary and financial policies Nothing too major there and the remarks here aren’t going to soothe investors after the disappointing stimulus announcement from

Domestic sight deposits CHF 455.4 bn vs CHF 447.8 bn prior Swiss sight deposits nudged back up in the past week, returning to levels seen thereabouts over the last few months. There hasn’t been much to it in the trend as of late as seen below: This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

Monday’s economic calendar is light due to a bank holiday in the U.S. for Veterans Day and in Canada for Remembrance Day. On Tuesday, the U.K. will release several key labor market indicators, including the claimant count change, average earnings index m/m and the unemployment rate. Australia will publish its wage price index q/q on

Rate cuts by year-end Fed: 20 bps (82% probability of rate cut at the upcoming meeting) 2025: 82 bps ECB: 28 bps (88% probability of 25 bps rate cut at the upcoming meeting) 2025: 138 bps BoE: 5 bps (78% probability of no change at the upcoming meeting) 2025: 64 bps BoC: 39 bps (58%

Good morning, afternoon and evening all. Any charts, technical analysis, trade ideas, thoughts, views, ForexLive traders would like to share and discuss with fellow ForexLive traders, please do so: This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

Reserve Bank of New Zealand inflation expectations data can move the NZD a little. Keep an eye on the two year horizon. This is the important one for the Reserve Bank of New Zealand. The bank views this as as a reasonable time frame over which its policy changes impact. The Reserve Bank of New

ECB board member Elizabeth McCaul speaking Monday – on supervisionICYMI: US ordered TSMC to halt shipments to China of chips used in AI applicationsChatter around that China is likely to implement stronger fiscal policies in 2025Reserve Bank of New Zealand inflation expectations survey: 2 yr at 2.12% (prior 2.03%)EUR/USD forecast: Trump policies likely to be

Ireland’s central bank governor and hence European Central Bank (ECB) Governing Council member Gabriel Makhlouf spoke on Friday, ICYMI. He emphasized the importance of a careful assessment and maintaining a measured pace of monetary policy easing, suggesting that with the end goal in sight, there’s no need to rush. “It is important to assess conditions