Inflation expectations for the year ahead seen at 2.7% (previously 2.6%)Inflation expectations for three years ahead seen at 2.6% (unchanged)Expected wage growth for the year ahead seen at 4.0% (previously 4.1%)Full survey findings The survey is one conducted on small, medium, and large UK businesses in assessing their perception of prices and wages mostly. Based […]

From earlier: OPEC+ reportedly have deal in principle to delay output hike This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

Social-lifestyle app STEPN GO is thrilled to announce the next milestone in its ongoing partnership with adidas: the launch of the first-ever STEPN GO x adidas co-branded physical running shoes featuring the STEPN GO logo. This exciting development follows a successful year of collaboration between the two brands, which previously saw the release of the

Fundamental Overview The US Dollar continues to consolidate around the highs as the market reached the peak in the repricing of interest rates expectations and it will need stronger reasons to price out the remaining rate cuts for 2025. This was signalled by the lack of US Dollar strength after lots of strong US data

Fed’s Powell: US economy is envy of the world, I’m going to do everything to keep it thereUS November ISM services 52.1 vs 55.5 expectedUS November ADP employment +146K vs +150K expectedECB’s Lagarde: Inflation expected to temporarily rise in Q4 and decline next yearBeige Book: Fed districts deport slight growth, rising business optimism for 2025US

Germany’s unemployment rate will rise to 6.2% in 2025 from 6.0% in 2024.The economy remains in crisis. Economy expected to grow by only 0.1% in 2025, following 0.2% contraction in 2024 Not encouraging for the euro zone’s largest economy. This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

Reuters with the headline, citing a source on the matter. Well, this is as anticipated following the numerous reports since earlier this week and then the supposed agreement here prior to the meeting. WTI crude is up 0.4% to $68.90 but overall movement has been rather minimal so far on the day. Going back to

That’s the weakest reading in seven months and it reaffirms the ongoing recession in the construction sector as well in Germany. The decline in new orders accelerated while there was also a marked deterioration in expectations for the coming year. HCOB notes that: “Against the backdrop of the political crisis, November has been a rough

While all eyes are Bitcoin which broke through the $100K glass ceiling and have since moved to $103,500 area, the major Asian Pacific indices are having a mixed day: Nikkei 225 is up 176 point or 0.45% at 39458Hong Kongs Hang Seng index is down close to 200 pointw or -1.01%ShangHai composite index is up

Prior +0.5% That’s a poor start to the final quarter for euro area retail sales. Here’s the breakdown for the month: This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

IW Institute: German unemployment rate will rise to 6.2% in 2025 from 6.0% in 2024.Mixed picture in the Asian Pacific stock indicesBitcoin $100K. Digital currency reaches the next key milestone.Trump Advisor: Trump wants to implement a Gaza cease-fire deal ASAPBOJs Nakamura: Not confident about sustainability of wage growthAustralia Balance of trade for October 5.953B vs

Rate cuts by year-end Fed: 18 bps (71% probability of rate cut at the upcoming meeting) 2025: 85 bps ECB: 29 bps (85% probability of 25 bps rate cut at the upcoming meeting) 2025: 154 bps BoE: 2 bps (92% probability of no change at the upcoming meeting) 2025: 78 bps BoC: 36 bps (57%

Fundamental Overview The US Dollar continues to consolidate around the highs as the market reached the peak in the repricing of interest rates expectations and it will need stronger reasons to price out the remaining rate cuts for 2025. This was signalled by the lack of US Dollar strength after lots of strong US data

Prior 54.3 The jump last month was driven by the strongest rise in commercial work for two-and-a-half years, as that helped to offset a further decline in home building activity – which saw its sharpest decline since June. Besides that, new order growth also weakened to a five-month low while employment conditions also eased further

2024 GDP growth forecast seen at 0.5% (previously 1.0%)2025 GDP growth forecast seen at 0.8% (previously 1.1%) Their previous forecast was made in June, hence the stark changes here. The euro area economy in general saw a more resilient first half of the year but that has largely faltered in the second half, with Trump

The China stocks are opening weaker: China CSI 300 index expected up-and-down -0.4%, while the Shanghai composite index is expected up-and-down -0.3%. Meanwhile, South Korea’s Kospi index is now is also lower by -0.16%, however the Australia’s S&P/ASX is still higher by 0.26%. This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

There’s still plenty of data before December meeting, including Tankan reportNeed to scrutinise those data in deciding whether rate hike would be appropriate Nakamura is one of the more dovish members, so you’d expect a more cautious tone at least. As things stand, traders are pricing in ~38% odds of a 25 bps rate hike

Bitcoin has reached and breached the $100K level for the first time. The prior high reached on November 22 reached $99,800 and backed off. The high price reached $100.293. This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

The only notable release in the European session will be the Eurozone Retail Sales data. In the American session, we get the latest US Jobless Claims figures. We are so used to good/stable claims that it’s unlikely to be market moving unless we get huge deviations from the expected numbers. We have also the OPEC+

I voted against March, July decisions not because I was opposed to raising ratesBut because such decisions ought to be made after spending sufficient time confirming the data He’s really going out of his way to spell out what his supposed more dovish policy stance means today. If that is any indication, he seems to

Japan foreign bond investment +922.4 billion versus -779.1 billion last weekForeign investment in stocks -607.7B vs -445.8B last weekForeign investment in Japan Bonds 176.1B vs -314.B last weekForeign stock investment -544.7B vs -316.7B This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

Fundamental Overview Nothing has changed in terms of the fundamentals this week. In fact, gold continues to consolidate around the major trendline and the 2600 support as the market awaits the US CPI report next week before picking a direction. In the bigger picture, the trend remains bullish amid the Fed’s easing cycle, but the

It ain’t much, but the EURUSD is stretching higher and has reached the 100 hour MA at 1.05213. Get above and another run to the 100 bar MA on the 4-hour chart comes in at 1.05322. Yesterday, buyers had their shot above that MA at highs but once again failed. It failed on the move

Prior +4.2%; revised to +7.2% The surge in September owes to a reportedly large order in shipbuilding and that is now phased out somewhat for the October reading. So, that continues to explain the volatility seen in the last few months. Overall, domestic orders fell by 5.3% while international orders were seen up 0.8% in

Japan economy is still in recovery, not yet at expansionary phaseI seem to be branded as very dovish on monetary policyBut I do see budding signs of a sustained recovery in the economyBOJ haven’t decided on rate hikes in December, January, or beyond thatIt will depend on upcoming data Despite seeding some doubts about a

Prior 2.6% The Swiss jobless rate keeps steady on the month but the unadjusted reading also creeps higher to 2.6%, up from 2.5% previously. The trend since last year has been upwards for Swiss unemployment, reflecting softer labour market conditions. At 2.6%, the seasonally adjusted rate matches that seen during December 2021. This article was

The AUDUSD moved sharply yesterday on the back of weaker Australia GDP data. The price broke below a floor area between 0.6433 and 0.6442 However, a sharp rebound took the price back above the swing area and to a high of 0.6450. The momentum cannot be sustained and when the price low back below the

If anything, Powell was more hawkish today in his interview. He touted an economy that was stronger than thought in September and inflation “a little higher” than anticipated. “The good news is that we can afford to be a little more cautious as we try to find neutral,” he said. That points to the Fed

French Prime Minister Michel Barnier negotiated Brexit, now he’s going to negotiate his own exit. Supporting the vote were 331 members out of 574. The move was widely expected but it’s not clear how President Macron will now proceed. An election can’t be called until July so a technocrat might be installed and the budget

A Trump advisor is on the wires saying: Trump wants to implement a cease-fire deal ASAP without delay and before January 20th. Of course Biden would probably want to do the same. This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

Economic activity rose slightly in most DistrictsThree regions exhibited modest or moderate growth that offset flat or slightly declining activity in two othersExpectations for growth rose moderately across most geographiesEmployment levels flat to slightly higher, hiring subdued amid low turnoverWage growth softened to modest pace, except robust gains for entry-level and skilled trade positionsPrice increases

The economic calendar is light in the Asian session today: Japan foreign investment flows will be released: foreign bond investment , -773.7 billion lastForeign investment in Japan Stocks, –446.0B lastForeign investment in Japan bonds, -300.7B lastForeign Stock investment, -318.1B last Also Australia balance of goods data for the month of October will be released: balance

On the back of strong gains in the US stock market, Japan’s Nikkei futures are trading higher by close to 1%. The major US stock moved higher with the Dow industrial average, the S&P index, and the NASDAQ index all closing at record levels. The gains were led by the NASDAQ index which advance by

The major currency pairs yesterday moved up and down in yesterday’s trading as the markets reacted to weaker PMI data, ADP jobs which wer as expected but lower than last month. Productivity was a disappointment at -0.4% for Q3 vs -0.2% estimateFactory orders came in as expected. The Fed Chair did speak and highlighted the

A report yesterday said Atkins was reluctant to take the job. Coindesk reported that Atkins was hesitant to leave his global consulting firm to clean up what he sees as a bloated agency mismanaged by departing SEC chair Gary Gensler, citing a person familiar. Atkins was SEC Commissioner from 2002-2008 under George W Bush. This

The PBOC is expected to set the Yuan midpoint and 7.2664 per dollar. According to Reuters estimate This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

The crypto market appears to be warming up to incoming SEC commissioner Paul Atkins. He was rumored for the pick but was nominated today and is friendly to crypto. That’s helped to lift bitcoin to $98,250 from a low of $94,800 just a few hours ago. Alt coins have been outperforming bitcoin today, including ethereum

There is a positive start to the Asian-Pacific stock indices Nikkei 225 up 0.85%So. Koreas Kospi up 0.30%Australia S&P/ASX index of 0.2% This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

Feel very good about where monetary policy isUS economy is in remarkably good shapeThe same institutional relationships between Fed and Treasury will continue under new adminPart of the Fed’s independence is that it’s self fundedEconomy in good shape and no reason that can’t continueOn a path to more-neutral rates over time, though downside risks are

MUFG expects the euro to remain under pressure in 2025, driven by anticipated U.S. trade policies and geopolitical tensions, with EUR/USD potentially testing parity before staging a modest recovery. Key Points: Election Impact: The euro fell sharply following Donald Trump’s election victory, with markets bracing for aggressive trade, immigration, and fiscal policies.Tariff Risks: U.S. trade

There have been multiple reports saying that the most likely OPEC+ result is an extension of production curbs through Q1, followed by the start of the planned return of barrels. Normally, I would argue that’s priced in and tomorrow’s price action should be smooth if/when that’s announced. However, the oil market operates differently and there

Prelim was 57.0Prior was 55.0Composite 54.9 vs 55.3 prelim (54.1 prior).Services PMI jumps to 56.1 in November from 55.0 in OctoberFastest expansion since March 2022New orders growth strongest since April 2022Employment falls for 4th straight month despite strong activityOutput price inflation hits 4.5-year low The ISM services report is due at the top of the

December is a bullish month for stocks historically and markets are following the script so far. The Nasdaq is leading the way to, up 1.0% and hitting a new record. It’s a nice looking breakout and comes after a softer ISM services report underscores the likelihood of a Fed cut this month. One of the

Over the next year, rates should come down a fair amount from where they are nowMy belief that rates will come down is rooted in belief that inflation will come down Still dovish, I don’t think he will be supporting a December pause. This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

I see positives on both sides of the Fed’s mandateYou can’t ignore last month’s jobs report at +12K even if there are skewsTo me, normalizing is a slower and more-careful path to bring rates to neutralEven the best models of neutral have a 200 bps spanWe have people as low as 2.5% for neutral and

Prior +6.3%Market index 213.9 vs 208.0 priorPurchase index 161.5 vs 152.9 priorRefinance index 498.5 vs 501.7 prior30-year mortgage rate 6.69% vs 6.86% prior Mortgage applications continued with the bounce back in the past week, helped by a surge in purchases activity. That comes amid a modest drop in the average rate of the most popular

The CEO of UnitedHealthcare was shot dead just before 7 am according to New York’s PIX11 news. Brian Thompson heads the group, which is one of the two main subsidiaries of United Health $UNH along with Optum. The company was holding its investor day today and he was due to attend the conference today. For

I have no objection to a rate cut next week but reserve judgement until the meeting There is very clearly a coordinated ECB effort to clam down on any expectations of 50 bps next week. This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

RBNZ Orr: Changes to capital rules will not increase competition among banks This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

Prior was -1844KGasoline inventories +2362K vs +639K expectedDistillate inventories +3383K vs +940K expectedRefinery utilization +2.8% vs +0.5% expected Private inventories released yesterday: Crude +1232KGasoline +4623KDistillates +1014K The official numbers are better than the private data. WTI crude oil was down 27 cents to $69.69 ahead of the data. This article was written by Adam Button

Prior 49.2Composite PMI 45.9 vs 44.8 prelimPrior 48.1 The revisions are positive but they are still markedly lower compared to the October readings. Of note, French services demand experienced its sharpest decline in a year as business confidence also sunk to a four-and-a-half year low. Pain. HCOB notes that: “The positive signals from the HCOB

Additional policy easing may be needed over timeThere is uncertainty over neutral rate, it could be between 3-4%Expects moderation in economic growth and hiringLabor market no longer a source of inflation riskMonetary policy is well positioned for what lies aheadToo much policy easing carries risksFed is currently well-above neutral Musalem is a 2025 vote and

Prior was -0.5%Factory goods orders ex transportation +0.2% vs +0.1% prior Durable goods orders +0.3% vs +0.2% preliminary. Last month was -0.7%Durable goods ex transportation +0.2% vs +0.1% preliminary. Last month +0.1%Durable goods ex defense +0.5% versus -1.1% priorDurable goods nondefense capital goods orders ex-air -0.2% versus -0.2% preliminary. Last month +0.7% These numbers aren’t

RBC execs: Expect Canadian economy to continue softening in 2025 with GDP and population growth slowingCredit losses to be in the mid 30s and peaking in the second half of the yearCanadian economy has been underperforming, expects BOC to continue cutting rates more aggressively than the FedBackdrop in the US has been far more resilientPotential

BofA anticipates a strong rebound in nonfarm payrolls for November, driven by the reversal of temporary factors that impacted the previous month. The unemployment rate is expected to edge higher due to normalization in labor force participation. Key Points: Payroll Growth: Nonfarm payrolls are forecast to increase by 240k in November, significantly higher than October’s

ECBs Holzmann is speaking and says: 25 bps rate cut is conceivable in December, not more.Nothing decided on next rate move, will depend on data available at December meeting.Trump is casting a shadow over inflation in Europe, will probably drive up inflation forecast. This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

From earlier: Australia GDP Q3 0.3% versus 0.4% estimate After the report was released, the aussie dropped and eventually took a run under the key short-term support region of 0.6433-50. There was a slight bounce after as we began European trading but now we’re seeing price run back to the downside. If the technical break

Data in recent weeks has reinforced view that prudence and caution are needed The market is pricing in just an 8% chance of a 50 bps cut on December 12. This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

The following is the economic calendar for the Asian session (times are GMT). The highlights include Australia PMI data and GDP. China’s Caixin Services PMI will also be released. The weekly private crude oil inventory data from API will also be released ahead of the EIA weekly data to be released tomorrow. This article was

The motion is to be put forward by the left-wing New Popular Front party and will be supported by Le Pen’s far-right National Rally party. The key number to watch out for is 289 votes out of the 577 parliamentary seats. But given the alliance between the two parties above, it should see that threshold

🌎 Global growth forecast for 2024 at 3.2% (unchanged), 2025 at 3.3% (previously 3.2%), 2026 at 3.3% 🇺🇸 US growth forecast for 2024 at 2.8% (previously 2.6%), 2025 at 2.4% (previously 1.6%), 2026 at 2.1% 🇪🇺 Eurozone growth forecast for 2024 at 0.8% (previously 0.7%), 2025 at 1.3% (unchanged), 2026 at 1.5% 🇬🇧 UK growth

📈 Technology and Semiconductor Sector: A Surge in Green The tech sector leads the market today, with notable performances from Microsoft (MSFT) up by 0.78%, and Oracle (ORCL) by 1.78%. Standout performance in the semiconductor space is observed as Avago Technologies (AVGO) surges by 4.00% and Nvidia (NVDA) climbs 1.69%. These gains reflect positive sentiment

From earlier: USD/JPY bounce starts to gain some traction The traction is certainly building up to a stronger momentum today with the pair now touching the 151.00 mark. As mentioned in the post above, it comes after the bounce today moved past the 100-hour moving average (red line). That switched the near-term bias to being

We are therefore not pre-committing to a particular rate pathThe medium-term economic outlook is uncertainGrowth will be weaker in the short termFurther ahead, the eurozone economic recovery should start to gather steam The market has been reading the signals from ECB policymakers and data and now sees just an 8% chance of a 50 bps

Source cited by Reuters said the aim is to name a new PM ahead of the reopening of Notre-Dame The main thinking is that he will choose a technocrat or caretaker to nurse things along ahead of a July election. This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

Trump’s recent comments and trade policies reveal contradictions regarding his stance on the USD. While protectionist policies could suggest a preference for a weaker USD to reduce trade deficits and boost competitiveness, fiscal spending and borrowing needs may lean toward a stable or strong USD to sustain debt financing and avoid inflationary pressures. Key Points:

Eurostoxx +0.3%Germany DAX +0.5%France CAC 40 +0.2%UK FTSE -0.1%Spain IBEX +0.4%Italy FTSE MIB +0.5% The DAX looks to run with a break of 20,000 as it keeps with the push to fresh record highs on the week. French stocks will be in focus though as Barnier’s government is facing up against a no confidence motion

In the European session, we will get the final services PMIs for the Eurozone and the UK. The final readings aren’t generally market moving events. In the American session, we have the US ADP, the ISM Services PMI and Fed Chair Powell speaking. Those will likely move the market although Powell speech might be the

The OPEC+ meeting is tomorrow and the latest report said that an extension of cuts for Q1 is “likely” but one source said a six-month cut would be discussed. A source also said a deeper cut is not a likely option. This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

The euro is at the highs of the day as part of a broad slump in the US dollar. It’s tempting to attribute this move to some kind of French politics move but it’s broad and comes after the ISM services data miss. US 10-year yields are now flat at 4.23% compared to a high

Fundamental Overview The US Dollar continues to consolidate around the highs as the market reached the peak in the repricing of interest rates expectations and it will need stronger reasons to price out the remaining rate cuts for 2025. This was signalled by the lack of US Dollar strength after lots of strong US data

The ADP jobs report hasn’t been a good predictor of non-farm payrolls but it’s a jobs survey of the US economy from a decent data set. It showed surprising strength in October with the opposite unfolding in the official data. This week’s edition is forecast at +150K and it’s due at 8:15 am ET. I

Key Contenders for Pentagon Leadership: Ernst, Hagerty, and DeSantis in the SpotlightECBs Holzmann: 25 basis point cut is conceivable in December. not moreThe AUDUSD is running to the downside, but is now testing a key floor. What next?Bank of Korea: Will increase short term liquidity measures starting WednesdayChina Caixin Services PMI for November 51.5 versus

Opinion: Dogecoin price prediction – will rise and get close to $1 🚀 Why Dogecoin (DOGE) is the Altcoin You Shouldn’t Ignore 🐕💎 If you’re thinking about diving into crypto, Dogecoin (DOGE) should be at the top of your altcoin watchlist. What started as a meme has grown into a global crypto sensation, backed by

Prior was 56.0 (was best since Sept 2023)Employment 51.5 vs 53.0 priorNew orders 53.7 vs 57.4 priorPrices paid 58.2 vs 58.1 priorSupplier deliveries 49.5 vs 56.4 priorInventories 45.9 vs 57.2 priorBacklog of orders 47.1 vs 47.7 priorNew export orders 49.6 vs 51.7 priorImports 53.8 vs 50.2 priorInventory sentiment 54.6 vs 53.0 prior Comments in the

The Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 index is trading down -0.32% at 8468.10. Yesterday, the index closed at a new all-time record price of 8495.20. The high intraday price reached 8514.50. The index starts the day up 0.7% for the trading week Australia GDP will be released later today with expectations of 0.4% versus 0.2%. The year

Composite PMI 51.5 vs 50.7 prior Services PMI rises to 51.2 from 50.4 in October, highest since April 2023Employment growth hits 14-month highInput costs remain elevated despite slowing from October peakExport orders decline accelerates amid global conflicts and cost pressures Paul Smith, Economics Director at S&P Global Market Intelligence, said: “November proved to be a

Final Services PMI 49.3 vs. 49.4 expected and 51.6 prior.Final Composite PMI 47.2 vs. 47.3 expected and 48.6 prior. Key findings: HCOB Germany Services PMI Business Activity Index at 49.3 (Oct: 51.6). 9-month low. HCOB Germany Composite PMI Output Index at 47.2 (Oct: 48.6). 9-month low. Further falls in new business and employment as price

Prior was +233K (revised to +184K)Annual pay growth for job-stayers 4.8% vs 4.6% priorJob-changers’ pay gains 7.2% vs 6.2% priorServices +140K vs +211K priorGoods +6K vs +22K prior “While overall growth for the month was healthy, industry performance was mixed. Manufacturing was the weakest we’ve seen since spring. Financial services and leisure and hospitality were

Prior -0.6%PPI -3.2% vs -3.3% y/y expectedPrior -3.4% Looking at the details, there was an increase in the price of energy (+1.4%), durable consumer goods (+0.3%), and non-durable consumer goods (+0.2%). That is marginally offset by a decline in the price of intermediate goods (-0.1%). Meanwhile, the price of capital goods was stable on the

We are on the same page and I don’t believe it will be much different in the coming meetingsExpects ECB to stick with cutting rates at a gradual pace rather than a bigger move this monthInflation pick up in latest report mostly due to base effects i.e. energy prices phasing outNew forecasts next week should

Headlines: USD/JPY continues run higher to touch 151.00 on the dayUSDJPY Technical Analysis – The chances for a rate hike dwindleHeads up: French government set to face no confidence vote todayECB’s Vujčić: I don’t think December decision will be that difficultECB’s Rehn: I see policy easing continuing in the coming monthsBOE governor Bailey expects four

Shanghai composite index and China’s CSI 300 up and down marginally by -0.1% This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

Fundamental Overview The fundamentals in the crude oil market haven’t changed much in the past month. In fact, crude oil remains confined in a range between the 72.00 resistance and the 67.00 support as the market continues to weigh the future scenarios. On one hand, we have the Trump’s victory which might be seen as

Prior revised to -0.1% US productivity has been welcome surprise but it Canada, it’s a struggle. This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

There is just one to take note of on the day, as highlighted in bold. That being for EUR/USD at the 1.0525 level. That should help to keep price action locked in during the session ahead, especially with the 100-hour moving average providing a short-term ceiling as well around 1.0530 currently. All this before we

The fallout of President Yoon continues but not without drama. In case you missed the developments from yesterday: South Korean President declares martial low “to clear out pro-North Korean elements”South Korean parliament votes to block President’s martial law declarationSouth Korean president reverses his martial law declaration The Korean won has largely retraced the fall from

Australia’s Treasurer Chalmers: Today’s national accounts show positive but week GDP growthPeople are under pressure but it’s encouraging to see growth in real disposable incomes. Australia’s economy grew by 0.3% in the third quarter, falling short of the expected 0.4% as weakness in consumer and business spending offset increased government expenditure on defense and infrastructure.

Services PMI 49.2 vs. 51.2 expected and 52.4 prior.Composite PMI 47.7 vs. 51.0 prior. Key findings: Service sector registers fresh decline in activity, albeit only marginal Fastest decline in new business for over two years Slight increase in payroll numbers, but business expectations dull Comment: Commenting on the final PMI data, Jonas Feldhusen, Junior Economist

Final Services PMI 50.8 vs. 50.0 expected and 52.0 prior.Final Composite PMI 50.5 vs. 49.9 expected and 51.8 prior. Key findings: Marginal overall rise in business activity in November Staffing numbers decrease for second month running Weakest output growth projections for nearly two years Comment: Tim Moore, Economics Director at S&P Global Market Intelligence, said:

The S&P e-mini futures are opening up 1.50 points or 0.02% at 6063.25 . Yesterday, the index futures closed at a record level. The cash S&P and NASDAQ indices also closed at record levels. This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

Prior month composite 49.8Prior services 50.2Composite index 50.1 versus 49.8 last monthServices PMI 50.5 versus 50.2 last month This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

German DAX futures flatUK FTSE futures -0.3% This comes with US futures sitting just a little higher with S&P 500 futures up 0.1%. It’s a quieter start to the session but keep a close eye on French politics, with Barnier’s government set to face a no confidence vote. This article was written by Justin Low

Prior 51.6Composite PMI 48.3 vs 48.1 prelimPrior 50.0 Despite the slightly better revisions, both the services and composite readings are at 10-month lows. Weak demand conditions are being cited as the main reason new orders declining again and this time at its sharpest rate for this year. Employment conditions are starting to look shaky but

The Binary Holdings, a $16.9 billion technology leader, today announced a strategic investment of up to $5 million from ABO Digital, a digital asset investment firm providing alternative financing solutions to cryptocurrency projects around the world. This investment will power The Binary Holdings to accelerate its mission of transforming the global digital economy. With a

The Japan’s Nikkei 225 futures open up 0.15% and the South Korean Kspon opened down -1.97% after martial law was proposed then rejected by parliamentary action. Before the open, South Korea’s regulator said that they are ready to deploy KRW10 trillion stock market stabilization fund at any time to help calm the markets. Also South

The AUDUSD is running to the downside and is looking to test a key swing area support floor between 0.6433 and 0.64419. The price has bottomed in that area on 5 separate days over the last 15 trading days with the price finding buyers on each dip. Needless to say, a break below the level

The dollar is sitting more mixed on the day with light changes for the most part. The notable mover in Asia has been the aussie, which pushed lower after the more disappointing Q3 GDP report here. That saw AUD/USD drop briefly to its lowest since August before holding at the key support region of 0.6433-50

In the ever-evolving world of proprietary trading, Noctorial has positioned itself as a leader in Spain and is rapidly gaining attention across Europe and Latin America. Founded in 2022, Noctorial has become a beacon for traders looking to thrive without risking their own capital, thanks to its 2 Phase Funding Program, commitment to transparency and

A Reuters poll of 42 analysts: EURUSD unlikely to reach parity over the coming three months (24 of 42 analysts)EURUSD forecast to trade at 1.05 in three months versus 1.10 in the November poll The EURUSD is currently trading at 1.0505 just above the three-month target level. The low price this week extended to 1.04596.

Prior month composite 50.2prior month services PMI 51.0Composite PMI final 50.2 versus 49.4 preliminaryServices final 50.5 versus 49.6 preliminary Getting back above the 50.0 levels versus the preliminary for both the manufacturing and the services PMI is a positive. However, the services index is still lower than plasmas 51.0 and 50.5 this month. The composite

Prior 54.9Composite PMI 53.2Prior 55.2 That’s the weakest reading since January as services activity in Spain slows further in November. That said, demand conditions are still holding up and HCOB notes that severe floods in some areas of the country have had an impact on overall activity. From their notes: “The Spanish private sector economy

Inflation had fallen more rapidly than what was expected a year agoThere are a number of potential paths aheadBut the base case scenario implied is that BOE would stick with more “gradual” rate cutsThis central view means BOE would have to “lean in a bit harder” to keep disinflation process on trackFull transcript (may be

Retaillers haven’t been overly optimistic lately. Best Buy cut its full-year sales forecast last week while Kohl’s struggled after earnings. I think much of that is a shift to online, as Black Friday shopping showed but Wal-Mart is strong online so this is an interesting comment. Shares of WMT took a quick dip afterwards. This

While the USD is within 0.12% of unchanged vs the EUR (+0.11)JPY (+0.03)GBP (+0.09%)CHF (+0.07%)CAD (+0.07%) The greenback is running higher vs the AUD and NZD: AUD (+1.03%)NZD (+0.75%) The previous video went through the key technical target which the AUD and the NZD were testing at the time (see video here) Since then, the

I see policy easing continuing in the coming months.I see more grounds for a December rate cut.Inflation near target and fragile Eurozone growth.The current data means ECB returning to zero rates is not likely. This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at www.forexlive.com.

After running into a test of its 100-day moving average (red line) on Monday, the pair did so again in trading yesterday. That owed to a bid in the Japanese yen after the whole martial law fiasco in South Korea involving president Yoon. And as the drama died down, USD/JPY retraced back up with buyers

Prior quarter 0.2%GDP 0.3% versus 0.4% estimateReal GDP YoY SA 0.8% versus 1.1% estimate. Prior quarter 1.0%.Final consumption 0.4%. Prior quarter 0.3%Gross fixed capital expenditures 1.5%. Prior quarter -0.1%.GDP chain price index -0.2%. Prior quarter -0.9% The AUDUSD has moved lower on the news with the price testing the low of a swing area between

The People’s Bank of China set the onshore yuan (CNY) reference rate for the trading session ahead. USD/CNY is the onshore yuan. Its permitted to trade plus or minus 2% from this daily reference rate.CNH is the offshore yuan. USD /CNH has no restrictions on its trading range.A significantly stronger or weaker rate than expected

Bank of Korea (BOK) will increase short-term liquidity measures starting WednesdayWill loosen collateral policies in repo operation to ease any bond market jitters.Will deploy various measures to stabilize FX market as neededWill make any special loans available to inject funds into markets if needed. The Authorities are doing all they can to stabilize markets and

S&P 500 up 2 points to 6049 (new record)Nasdaq up 0.4% to a fresh recordRussell 2000 -0.75%DJIA -0.2% Meta was the winner in the tech race today, rising 3.5% and looking to break out after a period of consolidation. Part of me gets the sense that bitcoin needs to break $100,000 to keep sentiment bright

CNN is reporting: US Senator Ernst of Iowa is among the names under consideration to replace Hegseth as pick to lead the Pentagon.Trump allies are floating Senator Hagerty of Tennessee for the roleIt was earlier reported that US President-elect Trump is considering Florida Governor DeSantis as a possible replacement The names are pretty much all

The EURUSD, USDJPY and GBPUSD all had up and down trading days yesterday as buyers and sellers continued to battle with no trendl-like moves. How has the price action impacted the technicals that are driving the pairs going into the news trading day. Be aware. Be prepared. The video will outline the most important technical

The USDJPY is trading to a new high for the day and looks to test the broken 38.2% of the move up from the September low at 150.18. Above that is the falling 100 hour MA at 150.368. The price gapped below the 100 hour MA back on November 25 (Monday) and corrected up to

It’s now 4:30 am in South Korea and after six hours of drama, the President appears to be backing down. Yoon said he will lift martial law after the parliamentary vote (190-0) to block it. He also said a cabinet meeting will be held as soon as possible. This whole episode is bizarre and his

Salesforce earnings are and and they are mixed EPS $2.41 versus $2.44 expectedRevenues $9.44 billion versus $9.35 billion estimateSubscription revenues beat 8.9 billion versus 8.82 billion estimateQ4 estimates are in line with estimatesSees fiscal year adjusted EPS guidance to $9.98 – $10.03 from $10.03 – $10.11 previous Shares of CRM are trading higher by $12.18

Prior month manufacturing index -19.7AIG manufacturing index for November -17.9AIG construction index -19.0. Prior month -40.9 This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

Prior month 50.0Services PMI 51.5 vs 52.4 estimate This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

The private weekly oil is within data has been released. Crude oil shown a surprise build of 1.232M barrels. The EIA data scheduled to be released tomorrow are estimating -0.671M drawdown. The estimates for the EIA to be released tomorrow at 10:30 AM ET Crude -0.671 million Gasoline +0.639MDistilates +0.940M Crude oil is trading at

Macron is limited from running for President beyond his term in 2027. Of course, I wouldn’t take anything a politician says for granted. Political realities can change quickly and France is in a tough spot right now. This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

South Korean President declares martial low “to clear out pro-North Korean elements”South Korean parliament votes to block President’s martial law declarationSouth Korean president reverses his martial law declarationUS JOLTS job openings 7.744M vs 7.475M expectedFed’s Daly: December rate cut is absolutely not off the tableFed’s Kugler: Will make decisions meeting by meeting, policy not on

Of it’s clear, it’s going to destroy them. Don’t expect your government to save you. Other headlines from the Q&A: Job report on Friday may well bounce back given the influence of storms and strikesUS may be around full employment, but need to watch how potential trade, immigration chances could change that This article was

Sector Overview Today’s stock market heatmap presents a diverse landscape, with sectors like technology and consumer cyclical facing challenges, while healthcare and communication services showcase resilience. 📉 Technology: A noticeable dip in technology stocks highlights investor caution. Key player Oracle (ORCL) fell by 0.84%, and Adobe (ADBE) saw a decline of 1.37%. However, Nvidia (NVDA)

South Korean President Yoon declares martial law: Says through martial law he will rebuild a free and democratic countryGovernment administration has been paralyzed because of opposition party conducts What is going on in South Korea? This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

I guess they got inside of parliament. Foota What a mess. USD/KRW has given some back and the US-listed South Korea ETF has bounced strongly. What a fiasco. This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

Yesterday, Fed Governor Chris Waller highlighted 5 economic releases that could sway his decision-making around the December 18 FOMC. The first on the list is out today at 10 am ET. Waller cited five specific indicators that could sway him: Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS): today at 10 am ETNon-farm payrolls report: December

Oct PCE data consistent as of now with a return to 2% inflationContinuation of disinflation, modest job market cooling show Fed goals roughly in balanceRate cuts so far were steps in removing policy restraint, Fed in process of moving toward more-neutral levelCurrent policy well-positioned to deal with uncertaintyWill vigilantly monitor for risks, negative supply shocks

Labor market is completely in balance, not a source of inflationWe need an open mindTiming of rate cut is up for debate, but need to keep moving policy rate downEven if we do another rate cut, policy will remain restrictiveUS economy is in a really good placeEmployers are filling positions for core work, but not

Holzmann is a hawk so he’s not the best barometer but the market is debating between a 25 bps cut and 50 bps. Right now market pricing is 87% towards the smaller cut. This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

US tariffs have the potential to weaken European economyThat will lead to lower consumption and reduced pressure on pricesThat makes me think we will have a reduction in growth and inflation It’s a bit of an opposing view on prices though most would agree on the impact on the economy at least. On the former

Oil is posting strong gains ahead of Thursday’s OPEC meeting. WTI crude oil is up $1.93 to $70.03 per barrel, which is a one-week high. The crude market is carefully waiting for indications on production from OPEC+, though the consensus appears to be settling around a delay of planned production increases through Q1. Tensions between

Prior +0.6%Core CPI +0.9% y/yPrior +0.8% Swiss inflation continues to hold well below the 2% mark but with the franc keeping at firmer levels, especially against the euro, the SNB will still feel compelled to cut rates again later this month. It’s now not so much about price pressures already for the SNB, though they

Television footage shows that South Korea’s martial command forces are entering the parliament area and now attempting to enter the main parliament hall. Earlier today the president declared martial law. The US-listed South Korean ETF ($EWY) is down 7% to the lowest in two years. I also think the bids in bitcoin might be related

The dollar is sitting a little higher at the balance today, notably recouping some ground against the yen. USD/JPY fell yesterday to test its 100-day moving average and is now catching a slight bounce to be just above 150.00. Besides that, the antipodeans are also continuing to be pressured towards recent lows amid a softer

The offshore yuan has fallen to its lowest level since July, driven by concerns over potential tariffs from the Trump administration. If such tariffs are imposed on Chinese goods, a weaker yuan could offset some of the impact by making Chinese exports more competitive internationally. This dynamic is shaping up as a key theme as

Dai Lo is thrilled to announce the successful acquisition of Fractal, which marks a pivotal moment for the future of blockchain technology and privacy innovation. After months of strategic discussions, the acquisition, completed for an undisclosed amount, positions The Dai Lo to harness Fractal’s groundbreaking ZK technology and revitalize its vision for the future. The

It’s a sad day in markets as long-time CNBC voice Art Cashin is dead. He was truly one of the best analysts. He was in the trenches for a long time and was full of wisdom. His title was UBS’ director of floor operations at the New York Stock Exchange and was a CNBC regular

Closing changes in Europe: Stoxx 600 +0.4%German DAX +0.5%France CAC +0.3%UK FTSE 100 +0.6%Spain IBEX +1.1%Italy’s FTSE MIB +1.0% Put the DAX 20,000 hats on: This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

OPEC+ likely to prolong oil cuts for Q1China announces further export ban on critical minerals to the USECB’s Cipollone: Trump tariffs could lead to reduction in growth, inflation in EuropeDollar sits tentatively lower in European morning tradeEuropean indices open slightly higher to start the dayWhat are the main events for today?Switzerland November CPI +0.7% vs

Opposition party members say the entrance to parliament is blocked as they try to overturn a shock announcement by the president of martial law in South Korea. Opposition leader Lee Jae-myung said “Yoon declared martial law illegally and unconstitutionally against the people”. He said members of the military may try to arrest lawmakers. The South

Fundamental Overview The US Dollar continues to consolidate around the highs as the market reached the peak in the repricing of interest rates expectations and it will need stronger reasons to price out the remaining rate cuts for 2025. This was signalled by the lack of US Dollar strength after lots of strong US data

OPEC production rose by 180K per day in November, according to the Reuters survey. The rise was driven by Libya’s 100K bpd increase, as that country isn’t subject to quotas. The countries producing over-quota were Gabon, Nigeria and the UAE but total production was just 16K bpd over quota. A report late yesterday said OPEC

Yen bulls got some help from their neighbours today after South Korea’s president declared martial law. That move led to a flight to safety in markets and has extended the reversal of earlier gains in USD/JPY. The bond market has steadied in the past 15 minutes but markets will be closely watching US JOLTS data

Prior month 7.443M (revised to 7.372M)Job openings 7.744M vs 7.475M expectedVacancy rate 4.6% versus 4.5% last month Quits rate 2.1% versus 1.9% last month Hires 3.3% versus 3.5% last monthSeparations rate 3.3% versus 3.3% last month This is an uptick but in the context of the past year of steadily declining job openings I don’t

Japan sells JPY 2.0tn 10-year JGB: Bid-to-cover ratio: 3.12x (previous: 3.13x)Average yield: 1.084% (previous: 0.997%) Auction details: Lowest accepted price: 98.32 (previous: 98.08)Average accepted price: 98.37 (previous: 98.12)Tail in price: 0.05 (previous: 0.04) Meanwhile, the Nikkei 225 contuns to move higher and has a gain of 2.01% This article was written by Greg Michalowski at

Fundamental Overview The US Dollar continues to consolidate around the highs as the market reached the peak in the repricing of interest rates expectations and it will need stronger reasons to price out the remaining rate cuts for 2025. This was signalled by the lack of US Dollar strength after lots of strong US data

Financial markets work at their own pace: it’s not just a nice phrase; it’s a reality. For example, over the past two years, there have been many reasons for a market crash, but optimism has persisted. And it still holds to this day, despite pundits claiming that the S&P 500 is “overbought.” The situation in

There is a divergence unfolding with the Nasdaq up 1% but bitcoin now at the lows of the day, down nearly 3%. Bitcoin had showed some strength early in US trading but couldn’t crack $97,500 and sellers have now taken over in a relatively quick drop to $94,500, which is the lowest since Thursday. I’m

The People’s Bank of China set the onshore yuan (CNY) reference rate for the trading session ahead. USD/CNY is the onshore yuan. Its permitted to trade plus or minus 2% from this daily reference rate.CNH is the offshore yuan. USD /CNH has no restrictions on its trading range.A significantly stronger or weaker rate than expected

Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 index is up 0.4% and that has taken the price to a all-time high of 8478.90. The previous high was 8477.10 reached on Thursday of last week. For the trading year with one month to go, the index is up 11.3%. As a largest gain since a 13% gain in 2021 This

Goldman Sachs anticipates President-elect Trump’s proposed tariff hikes—expected to be double the size of the previous round—combined with tax cuts, to significantly bolster the USD in 2025, despite initial market volatility. Key Points: Aggressive Tariff Strategy: President Trump’s proposals target China, Mexico, and Canada, signaling his preference for tariffs as a unilateral and impactful policy

US November ISM manufacturing survey 48.4 vs 47.5 expectedUS November final S&P Global manufacturing PMI 49.7 vs 48.8 prelimFed’s Waller speech: ‘I lean towards supporting a cut in December’Waller Q&A: Average inflation target framework “blew up” very quicklySad day for markets: Art Cashin dead at 83Fed’s Bostic: Not going into December meeting with the sense

The dollar is only sitting higher against the yen today but even then, USD/JPY has trimmed its advance from around 150.05 earlier to 149.80 now. Elsewhere, the dollar is down 0.3% against both the euro and the pound. EUR/USD is up to 1.0525 while GBP/USD is up to 1.2690 levels with buyers seizing back near-term

Smile Shop, the premier Asian e-commerce platform, has partnered with Conflux Network, China’s only regulatory-compliant public blockchain, to launch the BitUnion prepaid card. This partnership signifies a major expansion into global digital asset payment with cards welcome in 183 countries and regions. The BitUnion prepaid card operates on the recently launched UnionPay International USD prepaid

The Nikkei 225 index opened above its 200-day MA at 38657.45 and has kept the momentum running. The price is currently iup 667 points or 1.73% at 39180.01. The index remains within the range between 37713 and 39884, but buyers are making a play technically. ALthough the Nikkei is running China’s Shanghai composite index is

China has officially lifted its ban on two more of Australia’s meat processing facilities, meaning it has now removed all restrictions on all 10 Australian abattoirs that it has banned between 2020 and 2022. For some context, the trade restrictions went into place amid the fallout between the two countries during the time. That came

OPEC+ is likely to extend its output cuts until the end of Q1 at its meeting on Thursday.The move is intended to provide an additional support for the oil market. This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at www.forexlive.com.

Eurostoxx +0.3%Germany DAX +0.3%France CAC 40 +0.2%UK FTSE +0.3%Spain IBEX +0.4%Italy FTSE MIB +0.4% French stocks were a little more subdued earlier on but are now catching up again. As for the DAX, it is looking to build on fresh record highs as it closes in on the 20,000 mark. From yesterday: No economy, no

Fundamental Overview The US Dollar continues to consolidate around the highs as the market reached the peak in the repricing of interest rates expectations and it will need stronger reasons to price out the remaining rate cuts for 2025. This was signalled by the lack of US Dollar strength after lots of strong US data

Streamr, the decentralized real-time data network, and JDI, a manufacturing leader and venture capital in decentralized physical infrastructure networks (DePIN), are teaming up to transform home-based mining through the launch of the Terminal Multi-Miner. This new mining device combines multi-token mining capabilities with decentralized protocol participation, providing a new way for users to engage with

German DAX futures flatFrench CAC 40 futures -0.2%UK FTSE futures +0.1% I would consider it a win to start December trading for European stocks, that especially after the lousy start yesterday. The overall mood was weighed down by French stocks amid the ongoing political uncertainty in Paris. That looks to be the case again today

The ban will go into effect immediately, as according to the directive from the Chinese commerce ministry. They cite “safeguarding national security and interests” as for the reasoning to implement the ban. And this continues with the retaliatory measure that China has been pursuing against the US since last year. No doubt that this is

The AUD/USD moved lower yesterday, testing a key swing area between 0.6433 and 0.6442. Selling pressure eased as the price reached the upper boundary of this zone, where buyers stepped in and the pair rebounded into the close. This recovery pushed the price into a higher swing area between 0.6471 and 0.64817, but the upside

The main event in the European session was the Switzerland CPI. The data printed in line with estimates, so it doesn’t change anything in terms of market pricing. In the American session, the focus will be on the US Job Openings data. It’s unlikely that it will change anything for the Fed though as it

Japan’s Nikkei futures are off to a good start with a gain of 0.49%. Yesterday the Nikkei 225 index rose 305 points or 0.80%. Looking at the Nikkei 225 daily chart, the price has been waffling back and forth between 37,713 and 39,800 since September 20. The 100-day moving averages at 38,293.11. The 200-day moving

We’re seeing price nudge back up just above 150.00 for now but it comes after a more sluggish showing yesterday to start the new week/month. That despite the dollar seeing broader gains against the rest of the major currencies. The recent bid in bonds is still continuing to keep some downside pressure on the pair.

There is just one to take note of on the day, as highlighted in bold. That being for EUR/USD at the 1.0500 mark. Given the lack of catalysts in the session ahead, the expiries could act as a bit of a magnet in keeping price action in a stickier spot until we get to US

Fundamental Overview Gold continues to consolidate around the major trendline and the 2600 support as the market awaits the US CPI report next week before picking a direction. In the bigger picture, the trend remains bullish amid the Fed’s easing cycle, but the short-term corrections will likely be triggered by the repricing in rate cuts

The GBP/USD moved lower on Monday after peaking near a swing area around 1.27159, where sellers emerged to cap the upside. The subsequent decline saw the pair break below several key technical levels, including the 100-bar moving average on the 4-hour chart (1.2676), the 100-hour moving average (1.2666), and the 200-hour moving average (1.26244). The

Hong Kong’s Hang Seng to open up 0.2%Shanghai composite index to open up 0.1%China’s CSI300 to open up flat. This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

Prior quarter 2.0%Terms of trade +2.4% versus 1.8% expected % q/qYoY x.x% vs -1.6% last quarterExport Prices +0.7.x% q/q vs 5.2% last quarter. Expected 1.4%Import Prices -1.7% vs +3.1% last quarter. Expected -0.6% Other details: Total exports of goods and services for the September 2024 quarter were $22.2 billion, up from $21.5 billion in the

The major stock indices in the US are closing mixed with the Dow industrial average lower, the broader S&P and NASDAQ indices are higher. The small-cap Russell 2000 was little changed. Both the S&P and NASDAQ indices closed at record levels The final numbers are showing: Dow industrial average felt -128.65 points or -0.29% at

More from the Fed Governor: Avg inflation targeting framework was very backward looking and “blew up” very quicklyPeople are still trying to figure out what the current framework actually means; simpler may be better This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

The USD/JPY experienced a volatile session yesterday, initially moving higher before reversing lower. This decline occurred despite a modest rise in yields. Commentary from Fed officials offered mixed signals, with Fed’s Waller leaning toward a rate cut and Fed’s Bostic taking a more non-committal stance. Meanwhile, ISM data was mixed, adding to the uncertainty, but

On the headline, it compares to their latest estimate here that the unemployment rate in September was 4.3%. Meanwhile, the ONS says that it is revising the employment rate up by 0.1% to 74.6% in the period from April to June this year. Besides that, they are noting that new figures are showing that the

The onshore yuan has fallen to its weakest since November last year, with USD/CNY now rising to 7.29 today. The surge higher in the currency pair has really taken flight after the US election and even more so as Trump continues to threaten China with tariffs. And as that shrouds the outlook for next year,

The NZDUSD sellers pushed the pair lower on Monday but reached a swing area from the daily chart near 0.5848 and 0.5859. The low came in near 0.5862 and the price bounced higher. IN the trading today, the price has once again moved lower and for the 2nd day in a row stretched toward the

NZDUSD buyers trying to hold support and start a correction higher run.FX option expiries for 3 December 10am New York cutJapan sells 2.0 tn 10 year JGB at average yield of 1.084%Nikkei 225 index up 1.73%USDCNH rises to highest level since early JulyAustralia Current account balance -14.1B vs -10.0B estimateGBPUSD falls on Monday but bounces

Direction is toward lower rates over time.Appropriate for policy to be somewhat restrictive given inflation.Critical to get inflation back to 2%.Not seeing any signs of a US recession. This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

New York Fed President John Williams says He expects more rate cuts to happen over time.Monetary policy remains in restrictive stance.What the Fed does with policy depends on incoming data.Outlook for economy and policy remains ‘highly uncertain.’Expects US GDP at 2.5% this year, might be higher.Sees unemployment rate between 4%-4.25% over coming months.Expects US inflation

The EUR/USD moved lower on Monday, erasing much of last week’s gains. However, the pair found support near a key swing area between 1.0448 and 1.0461, where buyers stepped in to halt the decline. This level remains a critical support zone for the pair. Following the bounce, EUR/USD climbed back toward the 200-hour moving average

The E-mini S&P futures are opening flat. In the US stock market, the broader S&P and NASDAQ index is up close Avenue record levels. The S&P index rose 0.24% while the NASDAQ index surged by 0.97% This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

Prior quarter -10.7BCurrent account deficit $-14.1B vs -10.0B estNet exports contribution 0.1% vs 0.3% estimate. Prior month 0.2% This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

More from New York Fed Pres. John Williams: labor market softer but still pretty solidwill need to bring interest rates down over timeunclear where neutral rate is right nowbusinesses are finding less ability to push through price increases This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

Republicans have a small House majority at 220-215 so it will be tough to get a consensus on everything and that majority will shrink further with some set to join Trump’s White House. In the Senate, they can only afford to lose 3 votes as well and there are some tensions around deficit spending and

This is dovish stuff from Waller, who is the most-hawkish governor. To me, it makes it highly likely we will get a cut this month even if the jobs report is hot. One could argue a case for skipping a rate cut in December, will be watching data closely to decidePolicy is restrictive enough that

French left and right wing parties have both pledged to bring down Michel Barnier’s government and Reuters reports that the vote is likely Wednesday. The move comes after Barnier and Macron tried to use constitutional amendments to push through a budget. If the no-confidence vote passes (and nothing is certain in French politics) Barnier would

Not going into December meeting with a sense that the outcome is preordained, coming data will be important; keeping options openStill an open question how fast and by how much rates need to be cut to keep inflation declining while avoiding undue damage to the job marketRisks to inflation, employment mandates are roughly in balance,

To continue supportive monetary policy direction next yearWill strengthen counter-cyclical adjustmentsWill promote stable developments of real estate, capital marketsWil enhance monitoring of M2 and other levels of money supply, social liquidity The language on monetary policy this year has been consistent in that they will make it “supportive”. It looks like with the troubling state

Oil started the week strongly and was up $1.20 early in US trading. It’s since given it all back and is now down $0.10 to $67.86. This would be the fifth consecutive day of declines for oil prices, which are at the lowest since November 18. The OPEC+ meeting originally scheduled for Sunday has been

Prior month 47.3Manufacturing PMI final 49.4 versus 49.4 preliminary This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

The US Dollar Index has extended today’s gain to 0.8% on broad strength. It’s particularly strong against the euro, which is struggling as France’s left and right wing opposition appear to be united in efforts to oust Barnier after he invoked constitutional rules to push through a budget. EUR/USD is down 105 pips to 1.0470,

Prelim was 48.8Prior was 48.5 The ISM manufacturing index is due at the top of the hour. This is a nice bump from the prelim number and likely reflects post-election optimism. I would add upside risks to ISM manufacturing from the 47.5 consensus (which follows 46.5 prior). Chris Williamson, Chief Business Economist at S&P Global

Manufacturing PMI 44.5 vs. 45.7 expected and 46.9 prior. Key findings: Sharper declines in new orders and output Steep drop in purchasing activity helps cost pressures cool Most pronounced depletion in backlogged work for over 15 years Comment: Commenting on the PMI data, Jonas Feldhusen, Junior Economist at Hamburg Commercial Bank, said: “The Italian manufacturing

This is the highest reading so far for the GDP tracker, though it’s still very early. The Atlanta Fed reports:” After this morning’s construction spending release from the US Census Bureau, and the Manufacturing ISM Report on Business from the Institute for Supply Management, the nowcasts of fourth-quarter real personal consumption expenditures growth and fourth-quarter

Geropolitics. Isreals Netanyahu told a mother of a hostage: Conditions are ready after the end of the war in the north to complete a deal in GazaNetanyahu held a security discussion iwth the aim of reaching a deal in Gaza on Sunday eveningHe was warned that the Army’s continued dismantling of Hamas could lose control

Prior 46.0 The biggest drags to Eurozone manufacturing activity on the month are Germany, France, and Italy. Sustained weakness in demand conditions is arguably the biggest factor but Germany also saw its steepest decline in employment conditions since August 2020. That’s not a good indication as the downturn looks to persist into next year. HCOB

Prior month 4.4% This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

There was a lively debate last week on the drivers of US dollar weakness. The nomination of Scott Bessent as Treasury Secretary seemed to kick off the move but it also came (and extended) as we counted down to month-end. Today we’ve gotten a portion of the answer as the US dollar has bounced back

Sector Overview In today’s trading session, the consumer cyclical sector shines, driven by an impressive performance from Tesla (TSLA), which surged by 2.64%. This upward momentum suggests investors’ growing confidence in the auto manufacturer’s prospects. In contrast, the technology sector showcases mixed results. Notably, Microsoft (MSFT) dipped slightly by 0.34%, whereas the semiconductor giant Advanced

The early selloff in the US Treasury market has reversed, with yields now nearly flat on the day. US 2s are up 2 bps and 30s are down 2 bps. Earlier yields were 3-5 bps higher across the curve. With the reversal, the US dollar is falling, particularly against the yen and is at the

There aren’t any major expiries to take note of on the day. The larger ones for EUR/USD are seen a distance away, especially with a more bullish dollar to start the new week. That owes to Trump’s threats towards the BRICS over the weekend here. US data will steal the spotlight in trading this week,

Prior was 46.5Prices Paid 50.3 vs 54.8 priorNew Orders 50.4 vs 47.1 prior — returned to expansionProduction 46.8 vs 46.2 priorEmployment 48.1 vs 44.4 priorSupplier Deliveries 48.7 vs 52.0 prior Inventories 48.1 vs 42.6 priorBacklog of Orders 41.8 vs 42.3 priorNew Export Orders 48.7 vs 45.5 priorImports 47.6 vs 48.3 priorCustomers’ Inventories 48.4 vs 46.8

Hong Kongs Hang Seng index is expected to open up 0.1% at 19,442.31 China’s CSI300 is set to open down -0.2% while China’s Shanghai composite index is set to open up 0.1% This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

When you look at the performance of Nasdaq stocks in November, there were far more gainers than losers but what stands out here is the struggles of big-cap tech stocks, likely on some kind of post-election rotation. Today, they’re trying to fix that with as last month’s laggards strengthen. MSFT +1.8%META +2.2%GOOG +1.6%NVDA +0.3%AVGO +2.5%LLY

The euro has been struggling today partly due to French political intrigue and the stalemate in parliament. PM Barnier has now invoked special constitutional powers to pass the budget, something I warned he could do last week. Le Pen has taken the stance that the government won’t negotiate and warned of chaos if he makes

Rate cuts by year-end Fed: 15 bps (61% probability of rate cut at the upcoming meeting) 2025: 78 bps ECB: 31 bps (77% probability of 25 bps rate cut at the upcoming meeting) 2025: 162 bps BoE: 4 bps (86% probability of no change at the upcoming meeting) 2025: 77 bps BoC: 36 bps (53%

Headlines: Dollar in charge to kick start December tradingEuro falls as French political quagmire weighsFrench government makes further concessions to appease Le Pen’s far-right partyWeekly update on interest rate expectationsECB’s Lane: At some point, monetary policy needs to be driven by upcoming risksECB’s Kazāks: In my view, rate cuts must continueECB’s Kazāks: We are likely

Prior was +0.1%Private spending +0.7%Public spending +0.5% This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

Final Manufacturing PMI 43.0 vs. 43.2 expected and 43.0 prior. Key findings: HCOB Germany Manufacturing PMI at 43.0 (Oct: 43.0). Unchanged. HCOB Germany Manufacturing PMI Output Index at 43.1 (Oct: 42.8). 5-month high. Employment, purchasing activity and stocks all fall at faster rates Comment: Commenting on the PMI data, Dr. Cyrus de la Rubia, Chief

Here are some indications in the pre-market from top retailers: WMT +0.5%TGT -0.1%AMZN +1.0%SHOP -0.2% Here are some headlines from spending trackers: Mastercard Spendingpulse black friday sales up 3.4% vs last yearOnline sales were up 14.6% while in-store up 0.7% (I assume these numbers aren’t inflation adjusted)Adobe analytics says online sales up 10.2% y/yRetailNext says

easyMarkets a leading Forex/CFD Broker, has officially announced the launch of its ‘Trade with the Champions’ competition, set to take place from December 2, 2024, to January 15, 2025. This competition is open to both new and existing traders, offering them an exclusive opportunity to test their strategies and compete for prestigious prizes, recognizing excellence

In the European session we will get some low tier economic releases and the Final Manufacturing PMIs for the Eurozone and the UK. The main highlights today will the the US ISM Manufacturing PMI and Fed’s Waller in the American session. 15:00 GMT/10:00 ET – US November ISM Manufacturing PMI The US ISM Manufacturing PMI

There is no way ECB rates need to be at 3.25%. Germany is facing structural pressures, France is a political mess, a trade fight with Trump is coming and there is little growth anywhere. The only good thing you can say about the euro is that it’s so hated that it could squeeze higher and

Domestic sight deposits CHF 450.9 bn vs CHF 451.0 bn prior Swiss sight deposits kept little changed in the past week but with the euro now poised to fall further and provoke a drop in EUR/CHF, we might see the SNB step out a little more in the weeks ahead. This article was written by

Fundamental Overview The US Dollar continues to pull back from the highs as the market reached the peak in the repricing of interest rates expectations and it will need stronger reasons to price out the remaining rate cuts for 2025. This was signalled by the lack of US Dollar strength after lots of strong US

The USDJPY fell about -3.2% last week as US yields moved to the downside helping to send the US dollar lower in its wake. the low price last week extended to 1.4945. The low price in early trading this week just reached 149.46 and bounced. The price is back above the 150.00 level but there

Geopolitics: Not in stage of optimism, but have made progress toward deal with HamasNetanyahu: Conditions are ready after the end of the war in the north, to deal wi. GazaChina’s Caixan S&P Global Manufacturing PMI 51.5 vs 50.3 in OctoberPBOC sets USD/ CNY mid-point today at 7.1865 (vs. estimate at 7.2384)Japan manufacturing PMI for November

Shares of Super Micro Computer (NASDAQ: SMCI) jumped 20% in the premarket following a company announcement that an independent special committee found no evidence of misconduct by management or the Board of Directors. Special Committee, backed by Cooley LLP and forensic accountants Secretariat Advisors, completed their review with no evidence of wrongdoing foundNo restatement of

At some point, policy needs to be driven by upcoming risks rather than being backward-lookingBut that is once we are sure inflation is in line to hit 2% targetThere is a little bit of distance to go in that regardServices inflation needs to come down furtherOnce disinflation process is completed, monetary policy needs to be

The initial proposal was that they wanted to reduce the reimbursements, so they’re now abandoning their plan in pursuing that. This was a sticking point in negotiations for the budget and the far-right had used this as a key factor in pushing for a no confidence motion against Michel Barnier’s government. We’ll see if it

Eurostoxx -0.6%Germany DAX -0.1%France CAC 40 -1.2%UK FTSE -0.1%Spain IBEX -0.4%Italy FTSE MIB -0.7% Michel Barnier’s government have only until this afternoon to set out a compromise on the budget with Le Pen’s far-right party. However, the latter has arguably already made up their mind in pursuing a non confidence motion against the government. And

Prior was 51.1Best reading since February 2023Output growth strongest in 2.5 yearsNew orders up at fastest pace in 21 monthsPort strikes and railway disruptions causing delivery delays Key pressure points: Input cost inflation at 18-month high on USD strengthExport orders down for 15th straight monthBusiness optimism dips to lowest since July Comments from Paul Smith

The People’s Bank of China set the onshore yuan (CNY) reference rate for the trading session ahead. USD/CNY is the onshore yuan. Its permitted to trade plus or minus 2% from this daily reference rate.CNH is the offshore yuan. USD /CNH has no restrictions on its trading range.A significantly stronger or weaker rate than expected

If you need an example to the adage that the stock market is not the economy, the DAX is one fine example of that. Since last year already, analysts have warned about a potentially more trying time for the German benchmark index. And that largely has to do with a struggling economic outlook. Yet, here

We see that inflation problem will soon end Again, all of this just reaffirms a 25 bps rate cut for this month. As things stand, traders are pricing in a ~76% probability of that with the remainder tied to a 50 bps move. This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

Prior 6.3% Despite job concerns in the German manufacturing sector, we’re not seeing much of any spillovers to the overall Eurozone labour market. The jobless rate continues to hold at a low of 6.3% in October at least. This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

As Bitcoin edges closer to the $100K milestone, the crypto market is preparing for a pivotal new cycle. Historically, BTC surges spark altcoin rallies, with liquidity eventually flowing into the memecoin sector. In this environment, projects with strong narratives and valuable utilities take center stage. Among them, Pepeto, the God of Frogs, is emerging as

German DAX futures -0.3%UK FTSE futures -0.1% The French CAC 40 futures are leading losses, down 0.9%, as political risks have resurfaced in Paris. The government is failing to reach a compromise on the budget with Marine Le Pen’s far-right party and that has raised the risk of a no confidence vote against Michel Barnier’s

The current state of the cryptocurrency market, with Bitcoin’s dominance and a high “Greed” sentiment on the Fear and Greed Index, points toward significant ongoing investor enthusiasm. This, combined with the recent ETF inflows and Bitcoin’s strong market share of 58.2%, suggests a favorable environment for Bitcoin and select large-cap assets in the near term.

ThinkMarkets, a leading online trading provider, has further solidified its reputation as an industry innovator by receiving two prestigious awards from renowned publications. Investors’ Chronicle Award One of the UK’s top financial markets magazines, published by the Financial Times Group, recognised ThinkMarkets as a leading Spread Betting Provider. The magazine’s audience evaluated spread betting providers

In what will likely draw political ire from the GOP and Pres. Elect Trump, President Biden has decided to pardon his son Hunter Biden. The decision is a reversal of Biden’s previous public statements that he would not pardon his son or commute his sentence. Biden faced sentencing on December 12 for federal gun charges

The EURUSD has moved down around -0.38% in the first few hours of trading in the new week, and in the process has moved down to test its 100 hour AM at 1.05305. That MA is just above the 200 hour MA at 1.05188. Both those MAs would need to be broken in the new

Prior quarter company profits pretax -1.7%Company profits pretax +1.6%Gross company profits -4.6% vs 0.7% estimate. Prior quarter -6.8% v -5.3% previously reported This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

The week begins on Monday with the focus in the U.S. on the ISM manufacturing PMI, providing a picture of the health of the manufacturing sector. On Tuesday, Switzerland will release its inflation data, while in the U.S., attention will turn to the JOLTS job openings, offering a view of labor market conditions. Wednesday sees

The single currency is also falling to fresh lows against its other peers, with EUR/CHF now down 0.3% to dip below 0.9300 again. This comes as there is a growing risk of a French government collapse, with Michel Barnier failing to find a compromise on the budget with Marine Le Pen’s far-right party. This is

In case you missed it from the weekend: Trump weekend tweet roundup: ‘Productive’ meeting with Trudeau and a BRICS rant Trump threatened BRICS countries that if they were to divest from the dollar, then they will be slapped by tariffs. In the end, it will just be another one of his rants. I mean, 100%

The EURUSD has pushed lower in the new trading day/week and in the process has moved below the 100 hour MA at 1.05328 and down to test its 200 hour arrears or 1.05174. The price has bounced modestly off that moving average as risk focus buyers will to lean against support. However, the price remains

Manufacturing PMI 53.1 vs 53.5 expected and 54.5 prior. Key findings: Regional flooding reported to have limited growth Output, new orders and employment nonetheless rise solidly Confidence in outlook remains positive Comment: Commenting on the PMI data, Jonas Feldhusen, Junior Economist at Hamburg Commercial Bank, said: “The Spanish manufacturing sector continued its expansion in November

Considering economic developments, it would make sense for them to discuss a potential 50 bps rate cut. But as the job is not quite done yet on inflation, it may be an overreach to move that quickly especially with core inflation still seen at 2.7% in the latest report here. The disinflation process is facing

Japan’s factory activity fellin November at its fastest pace in eight months due to soft demand, prompting firms to reduce production. Manufacturing PMI: The final au Jibun Bank Japan manufacturing PMI fell to 49.0 in November, the lowest since March, down from 49.2 in October.The index stayed below the 50.0 threshold (indicating contraction) for the

Prior +0.2% No changes to the initial estimate as the Italian economy is seen stagnating in Q3, with the outlook going into next year set to be even more challenging. This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

Prior month +0.1%Business inventories -0.9% versus -0.4% estimate This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

Prior 44.5 It’s a light change compared to the initial estimate but reaffirms further downside in French manufacturing activity on the month. New order suffered its steepest drop since the first wave of the Covid pandemic as demand conditions remain extremely subdued – both domestically and internationally. That’s the main drag for the French industry

Final Manufacturing PMI 48.0 vs. 48.6 expected and 49.9 prior. Key findings: Output contracts as new orders fall Cost concerns lead to job cuts Supply chain stresses increase Comment: Rob Dobson, Director at S&P Global Market Intelligence: “Conditions in the UK manufacturing sector deteriorated again in November. The headline PMI fell to a nine-month low

The Israeli broadcasting Corporation cited source familiar with negotiations with Hamas stated they are not in a stage optimism, but are making progress. Hamas insists on stopping the war and without that no breakthrough will be achieved This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

Prior +0.1% UK house price growth pushed higher again in November, with the annual reading seen at 3.7% and accelerating from the 2.4% reading in October. The latter marks the highest reading in two years. And all of this continues to reaffirm strong appetite in the UK housing market with the BOE on the pathway

The pair is down 0.4% today to test waters below the 0.8300 level again. And while it also did so last month, there was no firm break of the key level when we got the monthly close. At least not what one can argue with too much conviction on the charts. And that’s been a

Prior 49.9 Swiss manufacturing activity slipped back in November, after a bounce seen in the months before. Both output and new orders expanded marginally but at a softer pace than in October. Meanwhile, employment conditions continue to ease further. Procure notes that if economic conditions in the Eurozone don’t recover, it will lead to the

Prior month 50.3Manufacturing PMI 51.5 vs 50.5 estimate Highest level since June 2024 when the index reached 51.8 This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

Prior month 0.1%Retail sales for October 0.6% versus 0.4% expected The up and down pattern continues for the series. This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

The latest measures will see the US add roughly a dozen Chinese toolmakers and their subsidiaries/affiliates to the Commerce Department’s restricted trade list. In total, this will restrict exports to 140 companies in what is the third crackdown in three years on the Chinese semiconductor industry. This will be one of Biden’s last moves in

The USDCAD is climbing higher at the start of the new trading week, supported by the USD’s upward momentum. The pair is approaching two significant technical levels: the 100-bar moving average (MA) on the 4-hour chart and the broken 38.2% retracement of November’s trading range. These levels were breached on Friday, but the move lacked

The major currency pairs are off and running….well walking…. with modest changes to start the new trading week. Versus the USD: EUR +0.06%JPY -0.08%GBP+0.03%CHF UnchangedCAD -0.08%AUD-0.05%NZD +0.03% Bitcoin closed on Friday at $97,512 and the digital currency is trading at $97,522 after reaching a high of $97,880 (today) and a low at $95,758 (on Saturday).

Japan’s Nikkei 225 is opening up 0.02% and 38,216.95. Last week the index fell -0.20% for its third weekly decline. The index fell -2.17% during the week of November 11 and -0.93% in the week of November 18. For the trading month, the index fell -2.23%. For the year, the Nikkei 225 is up 14.58%

The AUDUSD has faced persistent resistance at the falling 100-bar moving average (MA) on the 4-hour chart, attempting to break above it three times over the past five trading days. Each attempt, including the most recent on Friday, failed to generate sustained upward momentum, and the price closed below the MA, currently at 0.65146. Current

Prior quarter +7.4%Business capital expenditures 8.1% versus 7.4% previous quarterCapital spending YoY (Q3) it will percent versus 6.7% expected. Prev 7.4%Company sales YoY (Q3) 2.6% versus 3.2% expected. Prior quarter 3.5%Company Profits YoY QQ3 -3.3% vs previous 13.2% Modest increase in the Japan Capex for the quarter This article was written by Greg Michalowski at

New month. New week. New day. Good morning, afternoon and evening all. Any charts, technical analysis, trade ideas, thoughts, views, ForexLive traders would like to share and discuss with fellow ForexLive traders, please do so: This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

Prior month 2.6% revised to 2.4%New Zealand October Building consents -5.2% Details Key Facts Seasonal Trends: New dwellings consented decreased by 5.2% in October 2024 (seasonally adjusted), following a 2.4% rise in September 2024.Annual Totals:33,467 new dwellings consented in the year ended October 2024, a 16% decrease from the year ended October 2023.The annual value

What is scheduled on the economic calendar in the Asian Pacific session for the new day starting December 2. The following is ET. Below is the same calendar for GMT: Now if I can figure out what Mountain Time US is in relation to the times above? I will figure it out. This article was

UPCOMING EVENTS: Monday: Australia Retail Sales, China Caixin Manufacturing PMI, Switzerland Retail Sales, Switzerland Manufacturing PMI, Eurozone Unemployment Rate, Canada Manufacturing PMI, US ISM Manufacturing PMI, Fed’s Waller.Tuesday: Switzerland CPI, US Job Openings.Wednesday: Australia Q3 GDP, China Caixin Services PMI, Eurozone PPI, US ADP, Canada Services PMI, US ISM Services PMI, Fed Chair Powell.Thursday: Switzerland

Trump has been blasting away on Truth Social. First off, Trudeau flew down to Mar-a-Lago to meet with him and they’re smiling in the picture. The tweet (or whatever you call it) is mostly upbeat. Separately, Trump went on a rant about BRICS countries and not using the dollar. This is a canard, Trump will

The hours of November trading are ticking down but jingle bells are ringing in the distance. That means that December trading is on the way and it’s the most wonderful time of the year for bulls. Risk assets tend to do well in December but for stocks, the period late in the month (after Christmas)

China released its official PMIs for November and the numbers are a mixed bag as Beijing contemplates further stimulus for 2025: Manufacturing 50.3 vs 50.1 prior (50.2 was expected)Non-manufacturing 50.0 vs 50.2 priorComposite 50.8 This is the second straight month of gains for the manufacturing index. On Friday, I highlighted fresh rumors about Chinese stimulus.

Canada Q3 GDP +1.0% vs +1.0% expectedJPMorgan now sees the ECB cutting rates by 50 basis points in DecemberUS equity close: Big finish to a great monthDecember forex seasonals: What’s hot, cold and gold in the month of December Markets: JPY leads, USD lagsUS 10-year yields down 6 bps to 4.18%S&P 500 up 0.6%Gold up

I love it when the month ends on a Friday, it’s so tidy. And there was plenty of love to go around in markets in November following the US election. Closing changes: S&P 500: +0.6%Nasdaq Comp: +0.8%DJIA: +0.4%Russell 2000: +0.65%Toronto TSX Comp: +0.3% (note that the TSX doesn’t close until 4 pm ET) On the

The headline from today’s Canadian GDP report is that growth declined on a per-capita basis for the sixth consecutive quarter. In addition, monthly GDP data showed just 0.1% m/m growth in September and October. CIBC writes: “While growth in the Canadian economy slowed to a crawl in Q3, that was broadly anticipated and was mainly

There is some major intrigue around central bank decisions in December and the Bank of Canada will be one of the first ones off the starting blocks on December 11. At the moment, the market is leaning 70/30 in favour of 25 bps rather than 50 bps. But that will swing based on today’s GDP

The largest 250 trading firms are set to make a total of $32 billion from trading of Group-of-10 rates and $16.7 billion from currencies, according to data collected by Coalition Greenwich and reported by Bloomberg. Those are declines of 17% and 9% compared to last year, respectively and the lowest since 2021. I’m surprised by

Sector Overview The stock market presented a mixed bag today, with notable discrepancies between the performance of tech giants and semiconductor stocks. The Technology sector saw varied outcomes. While Microsoft (MSFT) dipped by 0.81%, semiconductor leader Nvidia (NVDA) climbed 0.86%, signaling a shift in investor focus within the sector. Semiconductors: The semiconductor sector experienced a

Tokyo area November 2024 inflation data has jumped much higher: USD/JPY has dropped, this data is a solid point in favour of a Bank of Japan interest rate hike at its December 18-19 meeting. There won’t be a ‘national/ November CPI data release prior to the December BoJ meeting, but with a jump like this

Closing changes in Europe: Stoxx 600 +0.6%German DAX +1.0%France CAC +0.7%UK FTSE 100 flatSpain IBEX +0.3%Italy’s FTSE MIB +0.4% On the week: Stoxx 600 +0.4%German DAX +1.6%France CAC -0.2%UK FTSE 100 +0.3%Spain IBEX flatItaly’s FTSE MIB -0.25% It was a poor start to the week in Europe but turned around nicely on Thursday and Friday.

The Mexican peso is scarcely lower than where it was when Trump first announced he would be putting a 25% tariff on all exports from the country, including oil & gas. The market barely believed it at the outset because it would drive up prices for American, badly hurt American companies operating in Mexico and

Still net pessimistic, but much improved. At 99.8 it’s the highest in 3 years. As part of the survey ANZ question consumer inflation expectations. These moved up to 4.0% from 3.8% This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

Headlines: USD/JPY tests 150.00 mark after Tokyo inflation speeds upGold Technical Analysis – The path of least resistance remains to the upsideEurozone November preliminary CPI +2.3% vs +2.3% y/y expectedFrance November preliminary CPI +1.3% vs +1.5% y/y expectedItaly November preliminary CPI +1.4% vs +1.4% y/y expectedFrance Q3 final GDP +0.4% vs +0.4% q/q prelimSwitzerland Q3

China’s CSI 300 stock index rose as much as 2.3% today before fading to close up 1.1%. It was the second day of gains but it might be based on flimsy evidence. So far, the market has been disappointed by Chinese stimulus but hopes are building for more. A report from earlier this week highlighted

The Q2 reading was +2.1% annualizedQ/Q reading +0.3% vs +0.5% priorQ/Q implicit price index +0.6% vs +1.1% priorGov’t spending rose 1.1% in the quarterHousehold spending rose 0.9% in the quarterBusiness spending on machinery and equipment decreased 7.8% in the quarterHousing investment +0.8% in the quarter, the first expansion since the third quarter of 2023Corporate income

The S&P 500 has extended today’s gain to 30 points, or 0.5%. The Nasdaq Composite is outperforming, up 0.75%. Here is something the bulls will be happy to see. The AAII member survey is down to 37% bullish, which certainly isn’t a red flag around sentiment, especially going into the most-bullish month of the year.

Eurostoxx -0.1%Germany DAX +0.1%France CAC 40 flatUK FTSE +0.1%Spain IBEX -0.3%Italy FTSE MIB -0.1% The changes are light but it reaffirms a more tentative mood in kicking off the final trading day of November. On the month itself, this is how regional indices are faring: Eurostoxx -1.6%Germany DAX +1.9%France CAC 40 -2.3%UK FTSE +2.2%Spain IBEX

There is a healthy debate about what’s causing the drop in Treasury yields this week. Some argue it’s month end flows and rebalancing, while others argue that it’s due to Trump’s pick of Scott Bessent as Treasury Secretary and hints that Kevin Warsh will be Fed chair. I’m sympathetic to the latter and worries about

Today we might get another choppy day in the markets as the Thanksgiving holiday period tends to carry through until the weekend even though the US markets are open today. The main highlight for today will be the Eurozone CPI data ahead of the ECB decision on the 12th of December. In the American session

Eyes on USD/JPY, as usual, its down towards 150.60 after the solid inflation data earlier: Tokyo area November inflation data, a big jump higher: Headline 2.6% y/y (prior 1.8%)USD/JPY towards 151.10 – the drop began before the CPI data officially published The dollar is lower more widely also. EUR/USD is near session highs circa 1.0570,

The market is pricing in just a 20% chance of a large ECB rate cut on December 12 but JPMorgan thinks that’s not enough. They’re out with a new note calling for 50 bps. Today’s prelim eurozone core CPI reading for December was 2.7% compared to 2.8% expected. The headline number creeped up to 2.3%

Prior +1.2% That’s a big miss in German retail sales with the drag largely stemming from non-food retail trade, which fell by 2.2% on the month. Despite a better showing at the end of Q3, the drag here highlights the ongoing struggles for the German consumer ahead of the holiday period. This article was written

I’ve posted on the Tokyo inflation data earlier today a couple of times. It came in at levels high enough to boost market assessment of a Bank of Japan rate hike at its December 18-19 meeting. Summary here: ForexLive Asia-Pacific FX news wrap: Tokyo inflation rose, JPY surged USD/JPY has dropped back under 150.00 since

The news hit yesterday that the controversial reforms to the RBA would be going ahead: Australia’s government has secured support from Greens party to pass RBA reform law For a rundown on what the reforms are, check this out: Reminder of what this is all about Reuters have a piece up saying: Australian central bank

Prior +0.9%HICP +1.6% vs +1.5% y/y expectedPrior +1.0% The nudge higher owes to base effects, similar to the rest of the euro area. However, core annual inflation is also seen marginally higher on the month – up from 1.8% in October to 1.9% in November. That said, it is still holding under 2% so that’s

Prior +0.7%; revised to +0.6% The Swiss economy continued to expand modestly in Q3 but headwinds are building in the final quarter of the year. With the euro area economy also slowing down in general, Switzerland won’t be able to escape that plight as well. This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

The Canadian economy grew at a 1.0% annualized rate in Q1, which was in-line with forecasts but a further drilling down in the data highlights a troubling trend. GDP was flat in August, then grew just 0.1% in Sepemteber and the advance estimate for October was +0.1%. The slowly pace of growth is further compounded

Fundamental Overview The Nasdaq is slowly crawling back to the all-time high. The market continues to look forward to the next year with Trump’s policies being a positive driver for growth. The only bearish reason we had for the stock market was the rise in Treasury yields. That’s generally bearish only when the Fed is

Deutsche Bank flags rising risks to December Fed rate cut, signals extended policy pauseECB vice president Luis de Guindos is speaking on FridayChina official PMI data due this weekend – manufacturing and services expansion expectedTokyo inflation acceleration – recapping the yen supportive data published earlierThe potential for a December Federal Reserve rate cut cited for

The expiries board doesn’t contain too much on the day, with it still coinciding with the Thanksgiving holiday period. US markets will be open but it is likely that liquidity conditions will remain thinner than usual. Looking at the board, perhaps there is just one to take note of – that being for EUR/USD at

ANZ on gold, a note highlighting: gold prices higher on the prospect of a December Fed rate cut after the US personal consumption expenditure data earlier in the week came in line with expectations pricing up around a 70% chance for a 25bps rate cut in December, from just over 50% a week agogeopolitical tensions

Fundamental Overview Gold continues to find support around some key technical levels as in the bigger picture it remains in a bullish trend amid the Fed’s easing cycle. The corrections will likely be triggered by the repricing in rate cuts expectations. The next big event for Gold will be the US CPI report due in

1130 GMT / 0630 US Eastern time – Speech by ECB vice president Luis de Guindos at Encuentro de Economia organised by Fundació Internacional Olof Palme in Barcelona He spoke earlier this week: ECB’s de Guindos: Concerns about high inflation have shifted to economic growthleaning towards a December ECB rate cut de Guindos This article

The S&P Global Ratings outlook for the first quarter of 2025 is titled “Buckle Up”. Key points made in the report: Even before taking office, a second Trump administration is already moving the macro-financial needle and raising downside risks for the global economy. The degree of ultimate policy implementation is a key unknown.Our preliminary policy

Prior 65.65k; revised to 66.12kNet consumer credit £1.1 billionPrior £1.2 billion Slight delay in the release by the source. That’s a notable jump in mortgage approvals, with the reading being the highest since August 2022. It reaffirms the strong sentiment surrounding the UK property market, with prospects likely to improve further as the BOE is

Prior +2.0%Core CPI +2.7% vs +2.8% y/y expectedPrior +2.7% The headline estimate may have nudged higher in November, largely due to base effects, but the core estimate remains steady at 2.7%. If anything, it reaffirms a 25 bps rate cut for next month as the disinflation path remains bumpy in the euro area. Looking at

The Tokyo inflation data is here: Tokyo area November inflation data, a big jump higher: Headline 2.6% y/y (prior 1.8%) And concerns about a leak were aired here: USD/JPY towards 151.10 – the drop began before the CPI data officially published The Wall Street Journal have a recap of the data. The Journal is gated

Prior -0.4% The jump here is broad-based but also owes a little to energy prices. If you strip that out, import prices were still seen up but by 0.4% on the month. Looking at the breakdown, there were increases in the price for consumer goods (+0.5%), durable goods (+0.4%), intermediate goods (+0.5%), and capital goods

The news on this is here: ANZ now expect the RBNZ to cut by 50bp in February (revised from 25pb cut) Adding in a few more comments from ANZ: As expected, the RBNZ delivered another 50bp cut in the OCR to 4.25% at its November Monetary Policy Statement – a Statement that had something for

The People’s Bank of China set the onshore yuan (CNY) reference rate for the trading session ahead. USD/CNY is the onshore yuan. Its permitted to trade plus or minus 2% from this daily reference rate.CNH is the offshore yuan. USD /CNH has no restrictions on its trading range.A significantly stronger or weaker rate than expected

The precious metal endured a poor start to the week but has recovered quite nicely since. The drop on Monday didn’t even touch $2,600 before buyers stepped in around the 38.2 Fib retracement level of the rebound in the week before. That led to a bit of a tussle around the key hourly moving averages

Prior 99.5; revised to 99.7 It’s an improvement to the month before but the recent trend points to more sideways momentum in the Swiss economy. And that suggests flagging economic conditions with a more challenging outlook surrounding Europe in general going into next year. This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

Inflation expectations for the next 12 months is seen at 2.5% and that is up from the 2.4% reading in September. That said, it is still keeping well lower than the readings in July and August of 2.8% and 2.7% respectively. Meanwhile, inflation expectations for three years ahead is seen at 2.1% – unchanged from

The yen is the main mover so far on the day, after Tokyo inflation showed signs of speeding up. That being said, it is worth noting that the higher figures also owes in part to the ending of government energy subsidies. So, there’s that. Nonetheless, traders are taking it at face value with the BOJ

There is no trade off between financial stability and growthStress testing will help with competitiveness of financial sectorNot seeing signs of higher corporate distress in relation to the budgetHave to watch for how the effects of the budget will pass throughBOE has sought to deliver financial stability while also supporting the economy (Breeden)We do not

The Japanese yen is the lead gainer on the day, helped by stronger Tokyo inflation data earlier here. The higher price figures owe to the ending of government energy subsidies though, so there’s that to consider. Nonetheless, it still spooked traders into pricing in higher odds of the BOJ hiking rates in December. That sent

Fundamental Overview The S&P 500 is slowly crawling back to the all-time high. The market continues to look forward to the next year with Trump’s policies being a positive driver for growth. The only bearish reason we had for the stock market was the rise in Treasury yields. That’s generally bearish only when the Fed

Fundamental Overview We continue to see a pullback in the US Dollar as the market kind of reached the peak in the repricing of interest rates expectations and it will need stronger reasons to price out the remaining rate cuts for 2025. This was signalled by the lack of US Dollar strength after lots of

Prior 27kUnemployment rate 6.1% vs 6.1% expectedPrior 6.1% German unemployment rose by less than expected on the month, with the jobless rate keeping steadier. The latter has been trending upwards over the past year or so, reaffirming softer labour market conditions with the manufacturing sector in recession. So, that will continue to be a spot

Fundamental Overview The Russell 2000 has been outperforming the other major indices recently as there’s much more value compared to the S&P 500 or the Nasdaq. The market is now looking forward to the next year with Trump’s policies being a positive driver for growth. The only bearish reason we had for the stock market

Deutsche Bank analysts have raised concerns that the Federal Reserve may skip a widely anticipated rate cut in December, citing stronger-than-expected economic resilience, a stabilizing labor market, and inflation persisting above 2.5%. While they still hold to their December rate cut forecast, the risks of a delay are “heightened,” according to the bank’s latest note.

Prior +1.2%HICP +1.7% vs +1.7% y/y expectedPrior +1.6% This just confirms a slight uptick in French consumer prices on the month. It is largely to do with base effects but looking at the details, services inflation is also seen nudging higher from 2.3% previously to 2.5% in November. That might be a worry if it

German DAX futures -0.2%French CAC 40 futures -0.2%UK FTSE futures -0.1% European indices bounced back yesterday but are being dealt a bit of a setback again on the final day of November. On the month itself, it has been a poor showing for the most part with only the DAX able to hold its head

It’s been a quiet one in US trading so far as FX trade sideways. Friday will be a tad more lively with stocks and bonds back open but it’s a de facto holiday as well and the US economic calendar is bare. There will be Canadian GDP tomorrow as Canada isn’t on holiday. This article

Comments from ANZ: After cutting 50bp this week RBNZ comms made it clear that a follow-up 50bp cut in Feb is their baseline, so we’ve tweaked our own OCR forecast accordingly. more to come *** Reserve Bank of New Zealand next meet on February 19, 2025 This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

Prior +0.2%GDP +1.2% vs +1.3% y/y prelimPrior +1.0% French GDP is confirmed to have expanded by 0.4% in Q3, with the breakdown as per the following: This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

ANZ Reserve Bank of Australia forecasts revision I posted earlier on the not dovish Governor of the Reserve Bank of Australia: ICYMI – RBA Gov Bullock ruled out a rate cut This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

Credit growth in Australia, September 2024 The y/y figures are all strong. For the m/m figures the growth in business credit is notable. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

Both of these miss. On output, the outlooks: Manufacturers expect November output to be -2.2% m/mexpect December output to be -0.5% m/m Earlier from Japan today: Tokyo area November inflation data, a big jump higher: Headline 2.6% y/y (prior 1.8%)USD/JPY towards 151.10 – the drop began before the CPI data officially published This article was

The Tokyo headline CPI data showed a big jump in November: Tokyo area November inflation data, a big jump higher: Headline 2.6% y/y (prior 1.8%) As I said in that post, this data is a point in favour of a Bank of Japan rate hike at its December 18-19 meeting, and thus yen supportive. If

Japan’s Industry Minister says the government will provide up to 100 bln yen support for 8 projects including in semiconductors, advanced electronic components. Meanwhile, USD/JPY continues to plunge: This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

PMIs from China’s National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) are due on Saturday, November 30, 2024 at 0130 GMT (which is 2030 GMT on Friday, November 29, 2024) In October 2024, these indicators showed signs of stabilization, with both manufacturing and non-manufacturing sectors returning to expansion territory. Key highlights include: Manufacturing Sector: Manufacturing PMI: The Purchasing

People’s Bank of China USD/CNY reference rate is due around 0115 GMT. The People’s Bank of China (PBOC), China’s central bank, is responsible for setting the daily midpoint of the yuan (also known as renminbi or RMB). The PBOC follows a managed floating exchange rate system that allows the value of the yuan to fluctuate

Tokyo area inflation data is the focus for the session – this might give us a heads up what the Bank of Japan is thinking about a rate rise at the December 18-19 meeting. National-level CPI data for this month will follow in about three weeks, it takes longer to gather and collate the national

Good morning, afternoon and evening all. Any charts, technical analysis, trade ideas, thoughts, views, ForexLive traders would like to share and discuss with fellow ForexLive traders, please do so: This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

Justin had the headlines from Reserve Bank of Australia Governor Bullock here: RBA’s Bullock: Underlying inflation is still too high to consider a near-term rate cut Which included these from Bullock: Policy will need to remain restrictive until there is more confidence on inflation There is still some way to go in returning inflation sustainably

Bitcoin rebounded strongly on Wednesday but it has given some back today on US Thanksgiving. It’s a quieter market with US equities and bonds closed and that’s spread to crypto, which has been less volatile. Bitcoin is down 1.1%, or $1,110 to $95,308 today. It fell as low as $90,638 on Tuesday but has rebounded

Reuters is out with some headlines on the OPEC+ meeting, which was scheduled for Sunday but was delayed until December 5. OPEC+ is discussing delaying the hike for Q1To hold further talks in the coming daysScheduled output increase for Jan is among the issues to be addressed None of this is a surprise. There has

Plan to overhaul the RBA could be back on the agenda. Australia’s government Labor Party and left-wing Greens Party held last-minute talks to revive the stalled legislation Bloomberg had the report (Bloomberg is gated). *** Reminder of what this is all about. In 2023, the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) underwent a comprehensive review, leading

German DAX futures +0.3%French CAC 40 futures +0.3%UK FTSE futures +0.1% European indices ended mostly lower yesterday but are looking for a bit of a rebound today. It will be a quieter one with little help from Wall Street amid the Thanksgiving holidays. So, just be wary of that. This article was written by Justin

Prior -12.5Economic confidence 95.8 vs 95.1 expectedPrior 95.6; revised to 95.7Industrial confidence -11.1 vs -13.2 expectedPrior -13.0; revised to -12.6Services confidence 5.3 vs 6.2 expectedPrior 7.1; revised to 6.8 Slight delay in the release by the source. Economic sentiment in the euro area actually improved on the month but the devil is in the details.

Closing changes in Europe: Stoxx 600 +0.5%German DAX +0.8%France CAC +0.5%UK FTSE 100 +0.1%Spain IBEX +0.4%Italy’s FTSE MIB +0.6% Here is how Deutsche Bank tees up the recent declines in France. The biggest story yesterday came from France, where there remain serious concerns about the budget situation and a potential government collapse. That led to

We are aiming for inflation at 2.5%As long as inflation continues on its gradual slowing path, we will be in position to consider cutting rates at some pointWe don’t need inflation to be at target to cut ratesBut we need to be sure it is heading thereIf inflation picks up again, that would be a

Today I spoke with BNNBloomberg about the Canadian dollar, tariffs and why there could be a black swan looming around the US dollar. The video is below. Here are five questions: 1) Why is the Canadian dollar struggling? his week the Canadian dollar fell to the lowest level since May 2020. Excluding the pandemic and

ICYMI, in a note Citi analysts cautioned that Trump’s proposed tariffs could lead to a decline in S&P 500 earnings by a few percentage points. They noted that the market has not yet fully accounted for this risk, particularly with the new tariffs targeting China, Canada, and Mexico. Industries with substantial trade exposure, such as

Prior was 4.6% (revised to 4.9%) This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at www.forexlive.com.

A small beat for the headline. Total new capital expenditure rose by 1.1%Buildings and structures rose by 1.1%Equipment, plant and machinery rose by 1.1%Estimate 4 for 2024-25 is $178.2b. This is 5.1% higher than Estimate 3 for 2024-25 *** Background to this. The Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) publishes data on private new capital expenditure

Policy will need to remain restrictive until there is more confidence on inflationThere is still some way to go in returning inflation sustainably to target bandOur forecasts suggest a sustainable return to target will occur in 2026The board will reconsider policy approach as more data comes to hand Nothing new there from Bullock as she

If Ukraine becomes a nuclear power, Russia will use all means of destruction.Damage from ATACMS strikes on Russia was minimal.Choice of response weapon depends on damage. This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at www.forexlive.com.

Prior +1.8%HICP +2.4% vs +2.4% y/y expectedPrior +1.8% Core annual inflation was seen at 2.4%, marginally lower than the 2.5% reading in October. So, that’s a welcome development and offsets the rise in headline prices which largely has to do with base effects. This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

The dollar sold off in trading yesterday, which arguably had more to do with month-end shenanigans more than anything else. The flows look to be rushed this time around as everyone wants to get things settled before the Thanksgiving holiday kicks in. And with that, we are seeing major currencies settle down again today with

Victory against inflation is in sight.The inflation target may be reached in early 2025.Our interest rates should clearly go to the neutral rate.We still have significant room to remove the restrictive stance of our monetary policy.I wouldn’t exclude going below the neutral rate in the future. This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at www.forexlive.com.

It is hard to tell what Trump administration will do, as opposed to what they say they will doUS tariffs could potentially lead to a rise in US inflationBut it is not going to impact Australia inflation in the next six monthsWe have to set policy based on what we know rather than what’s in

New Zealand November 2024 Business Survey Business confidence 64.9% prior 65.7 Activity outlook 48.0% prior 45.9 ANZ comments: Business confidence eased 1 point to +65 in November, but expected own activity rose 2 points to +48. Experienced own activity rose a point to -10, while past employment lifted from -15 to -12. Pricing intentions fell

The expiries board today won’t mean much, as flows will be marred by the Thanksgiving holidays. The same applies for tomorrow mostly as well, although there are some large ones for EUR/USD to be mindful of just in case. Month-end shenanigans saw the dollar sold off in trading yesterday but we’ll see if there will

Headlines: Weekly update on interest rate expectationsRBA’s Bullock: Underlying inflation is still too high to consider a near-term rate cutRBA governor Bullock: If inflation falls more quickly than forecast, we can respondRBA governor Bullock: Hard to tell what lies ahead when it comes to Trump administrationECB’s Lagarde: Tariffs will be negative for global growth in

Rate cuts by year-end Fed: 16 bps (65% probability of rate cut at the upcoming meeting) 2025: 75 bps ECB: 29 bps (85% probability of 25 bps rate cut at the upcoming meeting) 2025: 147 bps BoE: 4 bps (85% probability of no change at the upcoming meeting) 2025: 71 bps BoC: 30 bps (82%

Everything was on the table this weekBut a consensus was reached for a 50 bps rate cut very quicklyDid not feel the need to do more than 50 bps because there is still work to do on inflationHave to make sure core inflation is sustainably at target mid-point Her remarks are consistent with what Orr

Prior was -8.5 billion (revised to -4.7 billion) This is not a market moving release This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at www.forexlive.com.

Prior +2.0%HICP +2.4% vs +2.6% y/y expectedPrior +2.4% Slight delay in the release by the source. Headline annual inflation crept a little higher but less than estimated, as per the state readings earlier. That owes more to base effects, with monthly inflation seen down 0.2%. The EU-harmonised reading was the same as October though for

Fundamental Overview We continue to see a pullback in the US Dollar as the market kind of reached the peak in the repricing of interest rates expectations and it will need stronger reasons to price out the remaining rate cuts for 2025. This was signalled by the lack of US Dollar strength after lots of

Imposing tariffs arbitrarily on trade partners won’t solve the problems that the US have itself It’s all a war of words for now. But when the time comes, expect some form of tit-for-tat retaliation at the very least. It’ll be interesting to see how much of a resemblance we will get to Trump’s first term

The Bank of Korea was widely expected to leaves the rate unchanged. Nope, cuts by 25bp to 3%. Forecasts from the Bank: 2024 GDP growth at 2.2% (vs 2.4% seen in Aug)2024 inflation at 2.3%2025 GDP growth at 1.9% (vs 2.1% seen in Aug)2025 inflation at 1.9%2026 inflation at 1.9%2026 economic growth at 1.8% The

Fundamental Overview We continue to see a pullback in the US Dollar as the market kind of reached the peak in the repricing of interest rates expectations and it will need stronger reasons to price out the remaining rate cuts for 2025. This was signalled by the lack of US Dollar strength after lots of

Hesse CPI +2.0% vs +1.8% y/y priorBrandenburg CPI +1.9% vs +1.8% y/y priorSaxony CPI +2.9% vs +2.8% y/y priorNorth Rhine Westphalia CPI +1.9% vs +2.0% y/y priorBaden Wuerttemberg CPI +2.2% vs +2.1% y/y prior At the balance, the figures aren’t as high as estimated. This points to the national reading later coming in around 2.1%,

This is with regards to the Japanese Association of Metal, Machinery, and Manufacturing Workers (JAM) trade union, which mainly comprises of small and medium-sized manufacturing firms across Japan. It is being reported that they will be demanding a base salary hike of ¥15,000 or more in the upcoming spring wage negotiations. For some context, that

M3 Money Supply Y/Y 3.4% vs. 3.4% expected and 3.2% prior.Loans to Households Y/Y 0.8% vs. 0.8% expected and 0.7% prior.Loans to Companies Y/Y 1.2% vs. 1.1% prior. This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at www.forexlive.com.

Japan extraordinary parliamentary session to discuss plans for an extra budget (and more)JP Morgan says Bank of Japan will hike to 1.5% (but not soon)South Korea will extend its fuel tax cuts by another 2 monthsBank of Korea cut benchmark interest rates for a second straight meeting – a surprise moveThe US has reduced its

Fundamental Overview We continue to see a pullback in the US Dollar as the market kind of reached the peak in the repricing of interest rates expectations and it will need stronger reasons to price out the remaining rate cuts for 2025. This was signalled by the lack of US Dollar strength after lots of

Trump has indicated a range of tariffs around 10-20% for the rest of the worldThe fact that you put out a range means that you are open to discussionEurope is erring towards a “cheque book strategy”We could offer to buy certain things from the US and signal that we are prepared to discuss to see

The major indices move lower on the day ahead of the Thanksgiving day holiday tomorrow. The markets will reopen on Friday. The mega caps and technology stocks moved lower with Dell leading the way after disappointing guidance for the Q4: A snapshot of the closing levels shows: Dow industrial average -138.25 points or -0.31% and

The official excuse is that the meeting is moved due to the Gulf Summit taking place in Kuwait on 1 December. But reading between the lines, perhaps some members need more convincing in reaching a common ground to decide what to do next on policy. As things stand, the planned oil output hike will be

Check your diaries and make sure you’re free! It’s nearly time for iFX EXPO Dubai 2025, as the renowned online trading event returns to the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region once again – bigger, busier, and better than ever before. Set to be one of the largest and most prominent B2B and B2C

Trump says he spoke with Mexico’s Sheinbaum: agreed to stop migration through Mexico into the USeffectively closing the US southern border If so this will mean Turmp’s threats if big tariffs on Mexico won’t go ahead. *** Claudia Sheinbaum Pardo is president of Mexico *** The threat of tariffs on Mexico, Canada and China sent

A note from MUFG on the stronger yen this week. says JPY has risen due to safe-haven demand and speculation that the Bank of Japan could raise interest rates at its December (18 – 19) meeting MUFG with a reason to be cautious: “Tariffs on Japan imports to the US remain a risk and higher

Germany remains a real buzzkill for the ECB at the moment. Europe’s largest economy is putting a real drag on the growth outlook and on the inflation front, price pressures are also looking fairly sticky. And that should once again be the case this month as well. In terms of headline annual inflation, it did

An extraordinary parliamentary session will begin in Japan today, November 28. Will run to December 21. The special Diet session is to allow for deliberation on a supplementary budget needed to fund new inflation-relief measures proposed by the government of Japanese Prime Mister Shigeru Ishiba. Government plans include: to provide cash handouts — likely 30,000

Today we might have a pretty choppy day in the markets given that the US is on holiday for Thanksgiving. The only highlights will be the Spanish and German inflation readings. They will likely have an impact on the EUR ahead of tomorrow’s Eurozone Flash CPI. The market’s pricing for the ECB remains pretty aggressive

Good morning, afternoon and evening all. Any charts, technical analysis, trade ideas, thoughts, views, ForexLive traders would like to share and discuss with fellow ForexLive traders, please do so: This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

South Korea’s finance ministry said that it will extend the tax cut on fuel for two more months Out to February 2025 South Korea has implemented a series of fuel tax cuts since 2021 to alleviate the financial burden on consumers amid fluctuating global oil prices and inflationary pressures. Extensions to the cuts have been

The People’s Bank of China set the onshore yuan (CNY) reference rate for the trading session ahead. USD/CNY is the onshore yuan. Its permitted to trade plus or minus 2% from this daily reference rate.CNH is the offshore yuan. USD /CNH has no restrictions on its trading range.A significantly stronger or weaker rate than expected

From New Zealand are business confidence and activity indicators, from the ANZ Business Outlook Survey. This is a monthly assessment conducted by ANZ Bank New Zealand. It gauges the sentiments and expectations of businesses across various sectors in New Zealand. It serves as a leading economic indicator, offering insights into business confidence, anticipated activity levels,

Eurostoxx +0.6%Germany DAX +0.7%France CAC 40 +0.5%UK FTSE +0.2%Spain IBEX +0.2%Italy FTSE MIB +0.4% After two days of struggles, European stocks are looking to bounce back today in what has been a back and forth last two weeks. And for some indices, it has been the story for the month of November itself. That said,

US advice to travelers to mainland China changed from Level 3, “reconsider travel”, to Level 2, “exercise increased caution”. The the advisory still warned that US citizens in China “may be subjected to interrogations and detention without fair and transparent treatment under the law”. The trimming of the warning level comes as: China has released

Stats NZ released its monthly ‘Employment Indicators’ data, for October 2024: there are over 35,500 fewer jobs now in NZ than there were a year agoover 30,000 jobs gone in the 15-29 age bracketnumber of filled jobs for October 2024 fell by over 2,000 (0.1%) to 2.36 millionSeptember was revised down to a 0.1% fallin

The meeting was supposed to take place on 1 December. It seems that it will still be held online though. The delay here raises further debate on whether the bloc is going to kick the can down the road on its planned output hike – which is due to start in January. This article was

The EUR/USD began the U.S. session with a break above the 200-hour moving average at 1.05203, signaling bullish momentum. The rally pushed the price through the 38.2% retracement level at 1.05628, but it quickly pulled back, dipping below yesterday’s high of 1.0544. However, the decline found support above the 200-hour moving average, allowing the pair

Bank of Korea cut benchmark interest rates for a second straight meeting in a surprise move: Bank of Korea unexpectedly cuts its base rate by 25bpfirst time since 2009 the central bank cut interest rates for two consecutive meetingsBoK also lowered its forecasts for economic growth and inflation South Korean won, bond yields weakened. KOSPI

People’s Bank of China USD/CNY reference rate is due around 0115 GMT. The People’s Bank of China (PBOC), China’s central bank, is responsible for setting the daily midpoint of the yuan (also known as renminbi or RMB). The PBOC follows a managed floating exchange rate system that allows the value of the yuan to fluctuate

The Atlanta Fed GDPNow growth estimate for Q4 rose to 2.7%. In their own words: The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the fourth quarter of 2024 is 2.7 percent on November 27, up from 2.6 percent on November 19. After this morning’s personal income and outlays release from

JPMorgan analysts expect the BOJ will raise rates in April and October 2025. Bringing the policy rate to 1.0% by the end of 2025. BOJ will likely raise rates twicee to 1.5% in 2026 JPMorgan cites: In a global context, the BOJ is set to continue marching to the beat of its own drum, pointing

I posted on the machinations earlier: Plan to overhaul the RBA including splitting the board in two could be back on the agenda The Australian Labor party government has secured the support of minority party Greens to help pass the legislation. The Treasury Laws Amendment (Reserve Bank Reforms) Bill 2023 was one of around 30

The US is expected to announce another set of measures on Monday designed to further restrain China’s ability to develop advanced artificial intelligence The reports cite “people familiar with the matter”could include sanctioning dozens of Chinese companies that produce equipment for making semiconductorsalso placing restrictions on a handful of chip manufacturing plants, some of which

Post for the futures traders out there! The CME Group has adjusted trading hours for various products during the Thanksgiving holiday period in 2024. Below is a summary of the schedule for Equity Products, Cryptocurrency, Interest Rate Products, and NYMEX & COMEX Products: Equity Products: Wednesday, November 27, 2024: Regular trading hours. Thursday, November 28,

The CBI survey shows UK services sector sentiment falling at its fastest pace in two years, driven partly by tax increases in Finance Minister Rachel Reeves’ October 30 budget, according to the Confederation of British Industry (CBI). The decline is most severe in consumer services, where a £25 billion payroll tax hike heavily impacts large

Few people think Trump will actually follow through with 25% across-the-board tariffs on Canada and Mexico, at least not for any length of time. But with Trump you need to prepare for anything and that’s what Deutsche Bank has done today with forecast scenarios that illustrate where US inflation will lad with tariffs. This chart

A down day for the major indices ahead of the Thanksgiving day holidayRBNZ Asst Gov Silk: Manufacturing, retail, construction will start to see recovery in 2025Atlanta Fed GDPNow growth estimate for Q4 rises to 2.7% from 2.6% on November 19Crude oil futures settles at $68.72Assuming Trump actually puts the tariffs on Canada and MexicoBitcoin races

USD/JPY has risen in morning Asia trade. News and data flow from Japan has been sparse. We did have this from the US: Mexico has agreed to stop migration into the US (closes southern border) And this: US expected to announce further AI chip sanctions against China on Monday Whether those are smoking gun catalysts

ECB board member Isabel Schnabel spoke on Wednesday, not so dovishly: mostly points to a 25 bps rate cut more than anything else as she dismissed the likelihood of moving faster by saying she would prefer something more “gradual” More here too: clearly pushing back against the aggressive rate cuts expectations HSBC’s take is similar,

Crude oil futures is settling at $68.72. That’s down five cents or -0.07%. The high price today reached $69.33. The low price was at $68.18. Technically, the high price today extended briefly above its 200 hour moving average at $69.19. Getting above that moving average and then the higher 100 hour moving average at $69.73

Comments from RBNZ Asst Governor Silk Residential investment, manufacturing, retail trade, construction in New Zealand will start to see more recovery in early 2025.Geopolitical risks pose uncertainty, can have an impact on inflation and growth.Restrictive policy giving confidence nondomestic inflation numbers allowing us to start to accelerate easing cycle Comments from RBNZ chief economist Conway:

German foreign intelligence service says: Kremlin sees Germany as an adversarySays Germany is in direct confrontation with MoscowRussia has started to use “kinetic” measures against the West including acts of sabotage against infrastructureExpects further escalation of the situation Earlier today, it was reported that Trump would pick Keith Kellogg as the envoy to end the

The USD/CAD surged sharply higher on Tuesday following news of a proposed 25% tariff on all Canadian goods by former President Trump, contingent on the continued “stream of illegal immigrants” at the border. Adam addressed the issue here: “Tariff man loses his fastball“. The spike higher propelled the pair to its highest level since April

The US dollar is soft today and I think we’re getting an idea why at the moment. It’s struggling into the London fix, which highlights some flows ahead of month end. The US is on holiday tomorrow (and de facto on Friday) so flows are being jammed through today. This article was written by Adam

Dollar selling is the theme in the FX market today, and with that, the major currency pairs versus the US dollar are breaking through some technical levels and targeting others. EURUSD: The EURUSD is looking toward the 38.2% retracement at 1.05628. Get above that and it opens the door for further upside momentum. USDJPY: The

USD/JPY is down a whopping 260 pips today following a 140-pip decline yesterday. The pair is trading at 150.46 fr om a high of 156.76 mid-month. That’s a real turn and it’s particularly dramatic today as the US dollar is dogged by month-end flows. It’s a case of “up the escalator, down the elevator” that’s

Goldman Sachs estimates China’s 2024 LNG imports to revert back to previous record highChief Economist & European Central Bank Executive Board member Lane speaking WednesdayANZ forecast 25bp RBNZ rate cuts in February, April, and May 2025Goldman Sachs analyst says Asia LNG prices could jump to above $20/mmbtuRBNZ Gov Orr says tariffs would put up pressure

Prior was 4.215%Bid to cover at 2.71 vs 2.74 prior The bond market isn’t having a problem digesting some serious supply this week ahead of Thanksgiving. In the aftermath of the sale, long-dated yields are at the lows of the day with 10s down 5.2 bps to 4.25%. There is some follow-through in USD/JPY as

This has been rumored for weeks and yesterday it was reported that it was coming imminently. Gold and oil have sold off substantially on it already. The vote to approve it in the Israeli cabinet was 10-1. Sell the rumor, buy the fact? Biden also says there will be a fresh push for a ceasefire

The price of Bitcoin is trading up around $3800 today at $95,750. The high for the day has reached $96,435. The move higher took out the 100 and 200-hour MAs at $95,632 and $95,932 respectively. However, there is some apprehension on the break. Buyers and sellers are battling above and below the MAs awaiting the

Trust Wallet, a leading self-custody Web3 wallet trusted by over 140 million users, has announced the third project under Trust Wallet Launchpool, featuring the reward token $WOD. $WOD is the native token of World of Dypians, a MMORPG available on Epic Games, set in a connected virtual world, featuring advanced AI, stunning graphics, and immersive

The NZD/USD climbed higher despite a 50 basis point rate cut from the Reserve Bank of New Zealand, driven by a clear “buy the fact” reaction from traders. This rally was supported by technical factors, with the pair breaking above its 200-hour moving average at 0.5863. This level had previously capped gains on Monday and

US equity close: Big bids arrive late With all the focus on Bessent, are we underestimating Kevin Warsh?Biden touts Israel-Lebanon ceasefireCould Trump lean on a weaker dollar as is main policy lever?Are we in a bubble? Where 5 measures of market sentiment standA look at the Fed minutes by separating references to groups of “participants”.FOMC

Prior +1.7%Market index 208.0 vs 195.6 priorPurchase index 152.9 vs 136.0 priorRefinance index 501.7 vs 514.9 prior30-year mortgage rate 6.86% vs 6.90% prior Mortgage applications jumped in the past week, owing to a surge in purchase activity. That more than offset a decline in refinancing activity, with the average rate continuing to hold higher still.

Prior -0.2%Advance retail inventories +0.1%Prior +0.8%; revised to +0.6%Retail inventories ex-autos +0.1%Prior +0.2%; revised to +0.1% Wholesale inventories are estimated to be higher in October, up slightly to $905.1 billion, while retail inventories are also seen marginally higher on the month up to $824.7 billion. Here is the breakdown by the month: This article was

Headlines: USD/JPY falls to three-week lows as dollar slips to start the sessionEURUSD Technical Analysis – The pair looks to be bottoming outPotential for dollar selling this month end – DeutscheGold bounce today keeps buyers interested going into month-endWhat is the distribution of forecasts for the US PCE?ECB’s Schnabel: Easing too much would use up

Sector Overview Today’s stock market heatmap reveals a turbulent day for the tech sector, particularly within semiconductors. Nvidia (NVDA) has taken a significant hit, dropping 2.07%, marking a stark contrast to the generally resilient performance elsewhere. Meanwhile, the utilities and consumer defensive sectors are showing relative strength, offering a safe haven for cautious investors. 📉

European equities bounced from the lows of the day but still finished in the red. Closing changes: Stoxx 600 -0.2%German DAX -0.2%France CAC -0.7%UK FTSE 100 -0.2%Spain IBEX -0.3%Italy’s FTSE MIB -0.3% This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

This is weird. I posted the RBNZ rate cut decision, it was published on time and kudos to all involved. I then tried to access the statement and meeting record on the Bank’s website and, well, that wasn’t smooth at all. I could access the site but the statement and minutes were there from the

Prior -7.7 That’s the lowest reading since January and it reaffirms the worsening sentiment surrounding the Swiss economy, and the euro area in general, heading into next year. This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

South Korea’s National Pension Service (NPS) has been selling dollars in the onshore foreign exchange market in recent weeks, helping limit losses in the won as the dollar strengthens. Reuters citing according to two sources familiar with the matter. As the world’s third-largest public pension fund, with assets exceeding $810 billion, the NPS has significant

The RBNZ cut the OCR by 50bps to 4.25% today: RBNZ Gov Orr says tariffs would put up pressure on price levels globallyRBNZ Gov says it’s a misunderstanding that RBNZ projections show slower pace of rate cutsRBNZ Monetary Policy Statement Media Conference – live linkWhat is the Reserve Bank of New Zealand even doing? This

Fundamental Overview The US Dollar remains the strongest currency but overall, we haven’t got much action in the past couple of weeks due to the lack of key catalysts and the market’s pricing remaining largely unchanged around roughly three rate cuts by the end of 2025 despite a series of strong US data. This might

Prior month +7.4% Details Pending home sales 2.0% versus -2.0% expectedHome sales index 77.4 versus 75.8 last monthSales up 5.4% year on year. Highest level since March. Regionally: Northeast 4.7% MoM and +7.2% YoYWest 0.2% MoM 16.8% YoYMidwest 4.0% MoM and 1.8% YoYSouth 0.9% MoM and 2.5% YoY There is more supply which could be

ANZ forecast 25bp RBNZ rate cuts in February, April, and May 2025. In summary from the bank’s analysis of today’s RBNZ decision The RBNZ cut the Official Cash Rate (OCR) 50bp to 4.25% today in what the Record of Meeting notes was a consensus decision. The RBNZ’s updated forecast OCR track has about -40bp implied

Aventus, a leader in enterprise blockchain technology and parachain on Polkadot, today announces the launch of its Blockchain Factory: a platform designed to help businesses deploy bespoke blockchain networks with advanced features and seamless integration into existing systems. The Blockchain Factory aims to make blockchain adoption more accessible, offering a streamlined, flexible solution for organisations

Priorr Week initial jobless claims 213K revised to 215KInitial jobless claims 213K vs 216K estimate 4-week MA 217K vs 218.25K last week Continuing Claims 1.907M vs 1.908M estimate. This is the highest level for insured unemployment since November 13, 2021 when it was 1,974,000Prior Continuing Claims 1.898M vs 1.908M previously reported4-week MA of continuing claims

The AUD/USD moved higher in response to a weaker USD, but sellers stepped in near the falling 100-hour moving average, pushing the price back down. The decline found support at the high of a key swing area, where buyers leaned in and drove the pair back toward the now-converged 100-hour and 200-hour moving averages, both

A stock split is a corporate action where a company issues additional shares to shareholders, increasing the total number of shares while reducing the share price proportionally. This process does not alter the company’s market capitalization but can affect investor perception and participation. Hearing Stock Splits for the first time? Choose investment education to learn

Xi has been purging various institutions, the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) is not immune. I saw this earlier: Liu Liange, former Party chief and chairman of Bank of China, was sentenced to death with a two-year reprieve in a first-instance trial on Tuesday for accepting large sums in bribes. (Global Times) This article was written

China January- October industrial profits -4.3% y/y the January – September result was -3.5% October month industrial profits -10% y/y Data comes from China’s National Bureau of Statistics (NBS). *** Industrial profit numbers cover firms with annual revenues of at least 20 million yuan ($2.76 million) from their main operations This article was written by

Prior was +2.7%Core m/m +0.3% vs +0.3% expUnrounded core PCE was +0.274% m/mCore PCE +2.8% y/y vs +2.8% expectedHeadline inflation PCE +2.3% y/y vs +2.3% expected (Prior +2.1%)Deflator +0.2% m/m vs +0.2% expected Unrounded +0.238% m/m Consumer spending and income for October: Personal income +0.6% vs +0.4% expected. Prior month +0.2%Personal spending +0.4% vs +0.3%

On the month itself, gold is still down around 3.5% and poised for its first monthly loss since June. And if this holds, it would be the biggest monthly loss for the precious metal this year. That says a lot about how bullish sentiment has been for gold during the last twelve to fourteen months,

As Bitcoin flirts with the $100K milestone, the crypto market is gearing up for the next cycle. Historically, this surge in BTC’s value leads to altcoins pumping, followed by liquidity flowing into the memecoin sector. With this momentum, memecoins offering compelling narratives and valuable utilities become the focal point for investors. Pepeto, the God of

Advance Q3 reading was +2.8% annualizedFinal Q2 reading was +3.0% annualized Details: Consumer spending +3.5% vs +3.7% advance Consumer spending on durables +8.1%GDP final sales +3.0% vs +3.0% advanceGDP deflator +1.9% vs +1.8% advanceCore PCE +2.1% vs +2.2% advance Business investment (nonresidential fixed investment) +% vs +3.3% advancePCE services inflation excluding energy and housing +2.6%

The major stock indices are mixed with the NASDAQ and S&P lower. The small-cap Russell 2000 and Dow industrial average are trading higher. A snapshot of the market currently shows: Dow industrial average was 40.07 points or 0.09%. S&P index -22.79 points or -0.38%NASDAQ index -172 points or -0.90%Russell 2000+ 4.47 points or +0.18% the

The pair looks to be on an inevitable push lower towards testing its 200-day moving average again, with the key level seen at 151.97 currently. The slight drop at the start of the month met a stall there before the rebound after the US election result. And now we’re circling back to that again. Besides

We can gradually move toward neutral if incoming data continues to confirm our baselineWe may not be so far from the neutral rateMarkets seem to assume that we will need to move into accommodative territoryBut I don’t think such a step would be appropriate based on current conditionsHas a strong preference for a gradual approachThe

German DAX futures flatFrench CAC 40 futures -0.3%UK FTSE futures flat This mirrors the mood in US futures, with S&P 500 futures keeping flattish at the moment. That despite a late bid overnight helped to see Wall Street finish with modest gains. This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

There are some major geopolitical considerations around how the war in Ukraine ends. Trump will reportedly pick Keith Kellogg as envoy to end the war, according to a Reuters report. Here’s a recent article where he lays out how he would end it. Continue arming Ukraine while pursuing formal ceasefire negotiations, with aid conditional on

The pound is slowly chewing through last week’s losses. It’s trading at a session high, up 79 pips to 1.2646 in the second day of gains. It comes after a tough three day stretch late last week that sent it to the lowest since May. This week, the US dollar has been softening on the

Prior -$108.7 billion The international trade deficit was lower in October as exports were seen down 3.2% to $168.7 billion while imports were down 5.4% to $267.8 billion compared to the month before. Here’s the breakdown: This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

Crude oil inventories -1844 K vs -605K expGasoline inventories +3314K vs -46K expDistillates inventories +416K vs -103K expRefinery utilization +0.3% versus expectations of +0.4% expProduction 13.49mbpd from 13.2mbpd Private oil inventory data from late yesterday: Crude -5939KGasoline +1814KDistillates +2543K WTI crude oil was trading 10-cents higher to $68.87 before the data. Note that the OPEC

Australian Construction Work Done in Q3 2024, much better than expected at +1.6% q/q 0.3% expected, prior was 0.1% This is an encouraging result. AUD/USD little changed, its around 0.6475 This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

As the North America session begins the USD is lower, US yields are lower and the broader indices are lower (although the Dow is trading above and below unchanged). Crude oil is marginally higher after an up and down day on Tuesday. Gold is higher after rebounding by 0.31% yesterday a day after plunging 3.35%

Decision and summary of statement and minutes is here: Reserve Bank of New Zealand cuts cash rate by 50bp, as expected NZD/USD has jumped: That’s a big surge for the kiwi$ on a decision that was widely expected. I don’t see the statement and minutes as hawkish but maybe some out there do. This article

Goldman Sachs analyst says Asia LNG prices could jump to above $20 per million British thermal units (mmBtu) if European gas supply tightens this winter. Goldman Sachs analyst says: “That’s the near term dynamic, given this vulnerability of Europe, the lack of spare capacity, the loss of the residual Russian volumes currently going through Ukraine,

S&P 500 futures are fractionally lower as we count down to the open. With the US holiday tomorrow and month end looming, flows are likely to overwhelm everything else today. That’s also what could have the US dollar on the backfoot today. But if you look at the field of play, it’s a good one

Eyes are on US inflation with the market pricing in a 65% chance of a cut at the December FOMC. That ticked up about 8 points yesterday with the FOMC minutes highlighting a strong consensus around gradual rate cuts. The main number to watch is core PCE, which is forecast to rise 0.3% m/m and

Prior month -0.7% (revised to -0.4%)Durable goods orders MoM 0.2% vs 0.5% expectedEx transportation MoM 0.1% vs 0.2% expectedPrior month ex transportation 0.5% (revised to 0.4%)Non-Defense cap ex air MoM -0.2% vs 0.1% expectedPrior month non-defence cap ex air 0.7% (revised to 0.3Durable goods ex defense MoM 0.4% vs -1.1% prior This isn’t a market

The pair is down nearly 1% on the day to 151.50 levels, with price now at its lowest levels since 6 November. What is more notable though is that sellers are looking to push for a break below the 200-day moving average (blue line). The key level is seen at 151.97 and that will be

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