Prior was +1.1% Monthly PPI +0.6% vs +1.2% prior Raw materials price index +2.0% vs -2.8% y/y prior Raw materials price index -0.5% vs +3.8% m/m prior (revised to -2.6%) The falling Canadian dollar is a big reason why this report as been climbing in the past two months as most commodities are priced in […]

Qatar warns it will halt gas supplies to Europe if fined under EU due diligence law HSBC still sees Fed rate cuts ahead, another 75bp next year. Higher stocks & USD also. China hints at further measures to support the recovery of its property market. US PCE data – “core inflation didn’t print low enough

Bitcoin is struggling today and threatening a re-test of Friday’s spike low of $92,115. A break of that level would crack something of a double bottom and could clear the way for a deeper retracement, particularly if $90,000 also gives way. Bitcoin has declined by nearly 14% since hitting a record of $108,379 on December

The highly anticipated Amega App was met with universal acclaim upon its release on Android devices just a few months ago. Now, iOS users can also benefit from the unparalleled functionality and accessibility of the Amega App, as it was recently released on the App Store. The Amega App is a groundbreaking tool full of

Bitcoin Price Prediction by AI: Key Levels to Watch for Traders and Investors As Bitcoin continues to dominate the cryptocurrency market, traders and investors are constantly seeking insights into its price movements. Leveraging cutting-edge AI-based analysis, we aim to provide a clearer picture of Bitcoin’s current market dynamics and potential price trajectory. Our AI-driven analysis

Tech momentum: strong gains in semiconductors as healthcare and autos show promise The U.S. stock market is showing positive momentum today, primarily driven by impressive gains in the semiconductor sector. Healthcare and auto manufacturers also exhibit noteworthy performance, while other sectors display mixed results. 📈 Semiconductor Surge The semiconductor sector is experiencing robust growth, standing

Crypto outlook for the holidays, 23 Dec 2024 – 01 Jan 2025🎄 Bitcoin futures remain range-bound as we head into the holiday season, trading between $92,000 (support) and $98,000 (resistance). While the crypto community often speculates about a “Santa rally,” recent developments in broader financial markets suggest caution. The pullback in the stock market, which

It is a holiday week with Christmas eve tomorrow and Christmas day on Wednesday breaking up the action. Nevertheless the markets will be open in the US on Monday and again on Tuesday for a portion of the day. The US stock market will close early on Tuesday at 1 PM ET, while the Bon

The USDCHF moved higher last week but found willing sellers near the 38.2% of the range from the 2022 high at 0.9025. The high last week reached 0.8921. The subsequent move lower on Thursday and into Friday after the weaker PCE data sent the price to a key swing area between 0.8914 to 0.8923. The

The GBP/USD rallied on Friday after sharp declines on Thursday, driven by the BOE’s dovish rate decision, where three members voted for a rate cut. The downward move pushed the pair below the November low of 1.24865, reaching 1.24739—the lowest level since May. However, momentum stalled, and the pair rebounded on Friday, supported by weaker-than-expected

Prior revised to -14.8% m/m Sales at 0.664m vs 0.660m expected Supply at 8.9 months vs 9.2 months prior Median price $402,600 vs $429,600 prior Median price -6.3% y/y With 30-year fixed rates back up above 7%, it’s looking like 2025 will be a tough year in the housing market. This number is largely in

Prior was 111.7 (revised to 112.8) Present Situation Index 145.2 vs. 140.9 prior Expectations Index 81.1 vs 92.3 prior 12-month inflation expectations 5.0% vs 4.9% prior This is a big disappointment and lands at the peak of shopping season. “The recent rebound in consumer confidence was not sustained in December as the Index dropped back

The EURUSD moved higher on Friday but stalled at 1.0446. That was just short of a swing level on the daily chart at 1.0448. Today the high price was just short of those levels at 1.04446. The price moved lower with the USD moving back higher (EURUSD lower) in trading today. Going forward the holding

The USD/JPY moved lower on Friday after reaching its highest level since July 18, 2024. The pair hit a high of 157.92, entering a key swing area on the daily chart between 157.665 and 158.419, but momentum failed to hold. The release of lower-than-expected PCE data on Friday contributed to the decline. As the price

Gold is down 1.3% on the month and the decline this month largely stems from a more hawkish Fed from last week. Barring a stirring rally in the coming week or so, gold looks poised to snap its seven year win streak in December in 2024 trading. In the past decade, December is the second

We’re getting very close to the stage to declare that we have sustainably brought inflation to 2% Still should be very vigilant about services inflation, which is hovering around 4% Some underlying inflation figures are moving in the right downward direction Price levels are not going to return to the good old ways Puzzled by

The Prime Minister has no immediate plans to step down over the Christmas holidays, according to the Globe & Mail, citing sources. He leads a minority government and all the other parties have vowed a no-confidence motion that would trigger an election when parliament returns in six weeks. Conservatives have called for an even-earlier vote

Politico with the report that Qatar has warned it will stop exporting liquefied natural gas (LNG) to the European Union if penalties are imposed under the EU’s new Corporate Sustainability Due Diligence Directive. Qatari Energy Minister Saad Sherida al-Kaabi criticized the directive, which mandates companies address human rights and environmental issues or face fines of

The second half of December is also typically the second-strongest period of the year for US, according to Bank of America. In Presidential election years, the pattern is even stronger, with the S&P 500 up 83% of the time. That’s not the case so far, with the S&P 500 down 1.7% in December and futures

The People’s Bank of China set the onshore yuan (CNY) reference rate for the trading session ahead. USD/CNY is the onshore yuan. Its permitted to trade plus or minus 2% from this daily reference rate. CNH is the offshore yuan. USD /CNH has no restrictions on its trading range. A significantly stronger or weaker rate

Oh, oh, oh, Bitcoin Technical Analysis: Key BTC Price Levels for Christmas We Asked Santa to look at Bitcoin Futures It’s worth noting that Bitcoin’s price movement during the Christmas season isn’t consistently bullish. However, during bullish market cycles, the cryptocurrency often performs well in this period. On the other hand, bear markets have historically

Prior month 0.1% Canada GDP for October 0.3% vs 0.1% estimate November est is 0.1% Decreases in mining, quarrying, and oil and gas extraction, transportation and warehousing, and finance and insurance were partially offset by increases in accommodation and food services and real estate and rental and leasing. Details: Goods-producing industries: Up 0.9%, led by

The changes on the day are light and it reflects the lack of appetite or incentive among traders to chase anything on the week. It’s one of those times in markets where there isn’t much of a point in trying to make sense of any moves as trading conditions are exacerbated by thin liquidity. I

Prior +0.8% GDP +3.3% vs +3.4% y/y prelim Prior +3.2% No change to the quarterly estimate as the Spanish economy remains one of the few bright spots in Europe, especially with the two biggest economies – Germany and France – collapsing. This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

We’ve entered a traditionally-quiet time of the year in financial markets but it seems like Christmas traditions aren’t what they used to be. The FX market is lively so far today with USD/JPY up another 75 pips. There is something of a sigh of relief in equities after Congress passed the bill to avoid the

The Biden administration has just announced a trade investigation into “legacy” Chinese-made semiconductors today. And that could see it lead to more tariffs on chips from China that are used for autos, washing machines and telecoms gear among other things. This “Section 301” probe is coming just less than a month before Trump takes office

Prior +0.5%; revised to +0.4% GDP +0.9% vs +1.0% y/y prelim Prior +0.7% The negative revision means that the UK economy stagnated in Q3, with economic conditions stuttering in the second half of the year. The pressure is starting to build for the BOE, even as price pressures haven’t quite come down as quickly as

Rumours of this from last week: Honda and Nissan to begin merger talks Nissan and Honda are said to be in talks to set up a holding company More emerging now, with Honda and Nissan set to announce discussions on business integration on Monday, according to unnamed sources. Details of Integration Talks: Board meetings and

Bank of Montreal found support for a Federal Reserve rate cut cycle pause in the PCE data released on Friday last week. ICYMI, data and analysis links in here: Forexlive Americas FX news wrap: PCE inflation unexpectedly cools BOM, meanwhile: On the inflation front Core-PCE came in … 0.115% unrounded, and the lowest since May

This is via a Wall Street Journal interview with Goldman Sachs Chief Economist Jan Hatzius. Hatzius has, so far, stuck with his forecast for 3 interest rate cuts from the Federal Reserve in 2025, citing: I think a lot of the underlying reasons for disinflation are still intact for me, (its) hard to see how

A weekend editorial from the China Real Estate Newspaper, a media outlet affiliated with the Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development, highlighted untapped potential in existing and new policies. It emphasized the need for timely innovation and adjustment of financial strategies to stabilize and strengthen the real estate market’s rebound. *** This is obviously non-specific

Just a quick snippet from HSBC, analysts at the bank are still forecasting more rate cuts ahead from the Federal Reserve: 75bp of rate cuts ahead for 2025 25bps steps at the March, June, and September meetings “one more cut than the median expectation of Fed members, largely because we find it odd that the

People’s Bank of China USD/CNY reference rate is due around 0115 GMT. The People’s Bank of China (PBOC), China’s central bank, is responsible for setting the daily midpoint of the yuan (also known as renminbi or RMB). The PBOC follows a managed floating exchange rate system that allows the value of the yuan to fluctuate

Trump’s remarks (see below) are a very rare example of the leader of one sovereign state pushing another sovereign country to hand over territory. “The fees being charged by Panama are ridiculous, especially knowing the extraordinary generosity that has been bestowed to Panama by the US” “This complete “rip-off” of our Country will immediately stop”

Putin-Fico Meeting: Russian President Vladimir Putin met Slovak Prime Minister Robert Fico in the Kremlin. Discussions focused on gas transit and international relations as the Russia-Ukraine gas transit contract nears expiration (end of 2024). Slovakia’s Gas Dependency: Slovakia relies on gas transiting through Ukraine. Fico criticized Ukrainian President Zelensky for refusing to extend the transit

As I said earlier it’s a patchy week of holidays, official and unofficial. The best trade idea might be to chill out and recharge, but different people have different ideas. If you would like to share trade ideas, this is the thread for you! This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

It’s a near empty data agenda during the Asian timezone. Singapore publishes November inflation data at 0500 GMT (midnight US Eastern time) and that’s about it. y/y expected 1.8%, prior 1.4% m/m prior -0.3% core y/y expected +2.1%, prior +2.1% The Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS) released its most recent monetary policy statement on October

As is usual for a Monday morning, market liquidity is very thin until it improves as more Asian centres come online … prices are liable to swing around, so take care out there. Its also a week of many holidays for many major FX centres. Official and unofficial. TL;DR is that the vast bulk of

Boris Vujčić, Governor of the Croatian National Bank and European Central Bank Governing Council member spoke in an interview Saturday, confirming what we all know – more rate cuts to ahead from the Bank. “The direction is clear, it’s the continuation of the direction from 2024, and that is the further reduction of interest rates”

Yesterday I spoke with Dale Pinkert from Forex Analytix about the state of broader markets and a few of the things that have me worried. Here is a summary: Stock Market Trends: Fiscal tightening, political dynamics, and investor sentiment. What will fiscal hawks influence in Congress? Fed talk: What does Wednesday’s FOMC decision really mean

According to Punchbowl News: Republican leadership has proposed a plan addressing the debt limit.The proposal includes raising the debt limit by $1.5 trillion in the first reconciliation package.It also promises to cut $2.5 trillion in net mandatory spending through the reconciliation process. Statements from Key Figures: House Majority Leader Steve Scalise: if not today, they

The USDCHF fell below its 100 hour moving average, swing area and upward sloping trendline near 0.8956. That tilted the short-term bias to the downside. That momentum continued to the next key target area defined by the rising 200 hour moving average (green line on the chart above) and a swing area between 0.8914 and

Prior was +2.9% These are one-month annualized numbers so small changes led to swings like this. That said, the latest number is one-month running at a sub-2% pace, 11 more to go. This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

Johnson says there will be no government shutdown Talk is cheap, let’s get the vote. Update: It sounds like this won’t be split into three parts but will just be the bill that failed yesterday but without an extension to the debt limit. This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

US November core PCE +2.8% y/y vs +2.9% expected Canada retail sales for October 0.6% versus 0.7% expected Canada’s NDP says they will vote to defeat the Liberal government Fed’s Goolsbee: Nice to get inflation number that is better than expected Fed’s Williams: Inflation data since Sept has been ‘a touch higher’ Fed’s Hammack: Rate

Fed vice chair for supervision Michael Barr is worried. He was appointed in 2022 for a term that lasts until 2032 but is worried that Trump may try to remove him. Reuters reports that he sought advice from law firm Arnold & Porter. I’m doubt this is meaningful for markets but it does speak to

The major U.S. stock indices ended the day with gains of 1% or more for all three major benchmarks, but they closed lower for the week. Here’s a detailed snapshot: Closing Levels (Daily Gains): Dow Jones Industrial Average: rose 498.82 points (+1.18%) to close at 42,841.06. S&P 500 Index: rose 63.79 points (+1.09%) to close

The fear in markets is that Trump is going to be hitting everyone with tariffs. He’s a very tough guy to predict but I’m growing more optimistic. 1) The threats to Mexico and Canada are solvable One of his first post-election tweets talked about 25% tariffs on Mexico and Canada but the important detail was

Prior month -13.7EU consumer confidence flesh for December -14.5% versus -14.0 estimate: The high for the year was -12.5 in November. The low for the year was -16.1 in January This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

It was looking like a brutal day for European stocks but there has been a major turn in markets following the better PCE report and dip-buying ahead of a potential US government deal/ Closing changes on the day: Stoxx 600 -0.8%German DAX -0.3%France CAC -0.1%UK FTSE 100 -0.2%Spain IBEX +0.4%Italy’s FTSE MIB -0.1% On the

The monthly retail sales balance only saw a marginal improvement in December but continues to keep in negative territory. Similarly, the measure of expected retail sales for January remains negative at -11 but at least is an improvement to -29 in the month before. CBI notes that: “Retailers have endured a gloomy festive period. Looking

Currently the NATO target is 2% of GDP and 9 of the 32 members don’t even hit that. According to the FT, Trump’s team has told European officials that he will demand that NATO states spending 5% of GDP on defense and also that he plans to continuing supplying aid to Ukraine. The report plays

CNN’s Sahil Kapur reports on a new plan to vote on three separate bills in Congress: Clean continuing resolution Disaster relief Agriculture/farmer aid The key here is what’s in the continuing resolution and how long it will prevent a government shutdown for? Whatever the details, the market is spiking higher today with the S&P 500

The NDP has been the propping up the minority Liberal government since the 2021 election. It was a formal alliance for most of that time but lately it’s be one-off partnership. Now, with the Liberals in disarray, the NDP says it’s cutting bait. NDP leader Jagmeet Singh says his party will vote to defeat the

INTC stock – the plan to buy the stock (at your risk only) got its 1st fill. This article was written by Itai Levitan at www.forexlive.com.

The EURUSD is stretching higher and it has now broken back above the November 26 swing low at 1.0442 and is testing its falling 100-hour moving average at 1.0443 (blue line on the chart above). Just above that is a swing area between 1.0448 and 1.0461 and the falling 200-hour moving average at 1.04719 (green

But what we see now is inflation momentum more in the direction of being around 2% In other words, he’s saying the ECB need not be restrictive anymore considering the latest inflation developments. Sure, sure. I’m certain they’re not speeding up the narrative because the economy is slowing down or whatever. Pfft. /s This article

Yen weakening after the Bank of Japan left its short term cash rate unchanged at its meeting yesterday. ForexLive Asia-Pacific FX news wrap: Bank of Japan leaves rates unchanged, yen slumpsForexLive European FX news wrap: Yen tumbles on Ueda, BOE keeps rates steady Despite inflation moving solidly higher: Japan November headline CPI +2.9% (expected +2.9%,

Congressional Republicans are in a real jam. They need to either make a deal with Democrats (or at least a few dozen of them) to pass a bi-partisan continuing resolution and defy Trump; or they need to follow Trump’s instructions, shut down the government and hope the Democrats (and some members of their own party)

November US PCE inflation data ran cooler than the Fed expected. The month-over-month reading on core inflation was +0.1149% while headline was +0.1280%. Those are both at annual paces slower than 1.5%, which is well below the Fed target. The numbers throughout the report were lower than economists expected and consumer spending numbers were also

The GBP/USD has extended its recovery after reaching its lowest level since May 10, with the decline bottoming out at 1.24739, just below the November low at 1.24865. Early in the US session, the pair began to reverse course with more momentum, regaining prior breaks below key November swing levels at 1.2506 and 1.25237 respectively.

The major US stock indices are opening day lower but well off the premarket levels thanks in part to the better-than-expected PCE data, and the hopes that a solution to the Washington problems will ultimately be found. The numbers are showing: Dow industrial average is now up 26 points or +0.03% at 42360S&P index is

Hammack is out with a statement on her dissent. The US economy is in a good position, but there is more work to do on inflation. Economic growth has been strong, and the labor market is healthy. Broad measures of financial conditions have eased, and business sentiment remains robust. Monetary policy has played an important

Japan yen intervention official says will take appropriate action against excess FX movesChina one year bond yield drops to 1%, first time in 15 yearsNew Zealand credit card spending -3.2% y/y in November (prior +0.3%)South Korea to ease FX regulations to improve liquidity conditionsU.S. authorities may ban Chinese-made TP-Link internet routers, used in millions of

The major US indices have continued their runs to the upside as the fears of a government shutdown fades, and comforting words from Fed Goolsbee (he is a dove). Looking at the major indices: Dow industrial average is not 512 points or 1.21% and 42856.45.S&P index is up 68.52 points or 1.17% and 5935.56.NASDAQ index

Budget Deficit: Canada recorded a slightly lower budget deficit of C$14.50 billion ($10.09 billion) for the first seven months of the 2024/25 fiscal year compared to C$15.13 billion in the same period last year.Program Expenses: Increased by 9.8% across all major categories of spending.Public Debt Charges: Rose by 19.4%, mainly due to higher effective rates

I’m not sure what the strategy is here. Trump also wrote this: Congress must get rid of, or extend out to, perhaps, 2029, the ridiculous Debt Ceiling. Without this, we should never make a deal. Remember, the pressure is on whoever is President. This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

Let’s break down Nike’s (NKE) Q2 2025 earnings report and analyze the pros and cons based on the provided transcript. Pros: Strong Brand Recognition and Partnerships: Nike maintains its position as a global leader with three iconic brands (Nike, Jordan, Converse) and powerful partnerships with major sports leagues (NFL, NBA, WNBA, MLB) and athletes. These

Mimura verbal intervention. Atsushi Mimura is Japan’s vice finance minister for international affairs, AKA ‘top currency diplomat’. Am gravely concerned about forex moves.Will take appropriate action against excessive forex moves.Alarmed, including over speculative moves.Believe it is not appropriate for me to comment further on forex.Won’t comment on BOJ’s communication given its independence. Earlier today we

Prior month 0.4% revised to 0.6%Canada retail sales 0.6% vs 0.7% expectedex Auto 0.1% versus 0.5% expected.Prior month ex auto revised higher to 1.1% from 0.9%Core retail sales—which exclude gasoline stations and fuel vendors and motor vehicle and parts dealers—were up 0.2% in OctoberSales were up in five of nine subsectors and were led by

One of the big FX moves in the fourth quarter was in USD/CAD as Canadian and American fortunes diverged. The Bank of Canada cut big again in December and the market is 50/50 for a cut in January even as the Fed moves to the sidelines. Today is an important data point with retail sales

There’s no festive cheer in stocks as of yet, as the downside shove this week continues to run its course. S&P 500 futures are now down 0.8% as we observe one-way traffic ever since European traders got to their desks today. Dow futures are down 0.6% and Nasdaq futures down 1.2% as well currently. In

New Zealand trade data for November 2024 Exports 6.48bn NZD prior 5.61bn Imports 6.92bn prior 7.27bn Trade Balance -437.0mn prior -1658mn Annual Trade Balance -8.25bn prior -9.07bn NZD/USD not a lot changed on the data release, nestled near US time lows. For the technical analysts, if you check out the chart above (5 minute candles

Prior month 71.8consumer sentiment Index 74.0 versus 74.0 estimate 74.0 preliminary. Last month 71.8. Best reading since AprilCurrent conditions 75.1 versus 77.7 preliminary and 63.9 last month. Best since April still. Expectations 73.3 versus 71.6 preliminary and 76.9 last month. One year inflation 2.8% versus 2.9% preliminary and 2.6% last month.Five year inflation 3.0% versus

Summary 📉 Key Break Below 0.8956: The USDCHF dropped below significant resistance levels, including the 100-hour moving average, previous highs, and a trendline support level. Staying below keeps the sellers more in control in the short term. .💡 Resistance and Support Analysis: A critical swing area (0.8986 to 0.9017) was identified as resistance that held

Nice to get inflation number that is better than expectedThere is more uncertainty noiseStill on path to get to 2% inflation.Today stations recent ferment was a bump.Next 12 to 18 months, rates can go down a paramount.Employment is stable, want to keep it stable, to do so rates need to come down to something like

Jim Cramer was on CNBC this morning highlighting that the trade is always to buy US government shutdowns and market selloffs. He highlighted the history and it’s unassailable. I’ve written the same thing a hundred times over the years. Here is why this time might be the exception: The selloff isn’t really about the shutdown.

Sector Overview: Divergent Paths in Tech and Healthcare The US stock market today presents a mixed landscape, with distinct trends observed across sectors. The technology and consumer cyclical sectors are experiencing notable declines, while healthcare stands out as the most promising performer. 📉 Technology: Major tech giants like Microsoft (MSFT) and Nvidia (NVDA) are down

There are plenty of significant and massive expiries in play today, as highlighted in bold. The very much larger ones are for EUR/USD and the ones to watch out for are layered between 1.0300 to 1.0400, given prevailing trading sentiment. The pair saw price action pulled towards 1.0400 yesterday before falling back after and the

Prior was +2.8% Core PCE (excluding food & energy): Core m/m +0.1% vs +0.2% expUnrounded core PCE +0.1149% vs +0.274% m/m priorPCE excluding food, energy and housing +0.1% m/m vs +0.3% m/m prior (revised to +0.2%) Headline PCE: Headline PCE +2.4% y/y vs +2.5% expectedDeflator +0.1% m/m vs +0.2% expectedUnrounded headline +0.1280% vs +0.238% m/m

Komatsu is the world’s second-largest construction machinery firm, after Caterpillar ( yes, my headline is incorrect on this point). Top Business Risk for Komatsu: Komatsu’s primary concern under Trump’s presidency is potential retaliatory tariffs by Canada on American-made mining machines.Canada’s retaliatory duties could significantly impact Komatsu, as Canada is the largest export destination for its

Headlines: US futures sink lower on the sessionTrump: EU must make large scale purchase of US oil and gas or face tariffsWhat is the distribution of forecasts for the US PCE?ECB’s Lane: We only have to be restrictive if inflation momentum is above 2%Germany November PPI +0.5% vs +0.3% m/m expectedUK November retail sales +0.2%

After a late night, Johnson is up early. Plan A and Plan B didn’t work, let’s see how Plan C looks. But seriously, if this gets done we could see stock markets turn around. The market just doesn’t want to see the fiscal hawks in charge and Republican disarray. I think what makes this deal

For the full information on this post, why knowing the ranges is important etc, see this I posted earlier during the Asian session: US inflation (PCE) data due Friday – here are the critical ranges to watchDistribution of forecasts for the US PCE But, if you just want the numbers … Core PCE Price Index

FBS, a leading global broker, unveils its latest analysis of cryptocurrency market trends for 2024 and predictions for 2025. FBS analysts explore how pivotal events have shaped the digital finance landscape and identify emerging opportunities for the coming year. A Closer Look at 2024 According to FBS analysts, 2024 was shaped by transformative events that

Recent economic data is consistent with Fed projectionsMonetary policy is well positioned, is somewhat restrictiveInflation data since Sept has been ‘a touch higher’ and economy ‘a touch stronger’ than expectedHopes disinflation process will continue but lots of uncertaintyNext year expects growth to slow to 2%, steady unemployment rateIt’s all about getting policy well positioned for

It increasingly looks like we’re in the end-game of Justin Trudeau’s Liberals. They’ve been far behind in the polls for two years and sinking further despite some last-ditch efforts to right the ship. Finance Minister Chyrstia Freeland left cabinet on Monday and fellow cabinet member Sean Fraser quit politics. Today, another cabinet shuffle is coming

US broader indices give up gains and close lower on the dayNew Zealand December consumer confidence jumps into optimism! 100.2 (prior 99.8)Republican Congressman Tom Cole says there’s an agreement on a stopgap funding billCrude oil futures settles at $69.38, down -$0.64 or 0.91%Mexico central bank cuts its benchmark interest rate to 10% from 10.25%Bitcoin moving

Fundamental Overview The USD got a boost from the FOMC decision as the market perceived it as more hawkish than expected. Overall, apart from some slight tweaks, the Fed matched the market’s pricing. Nonetheless, the market reacted in a big way pushing Treasury yields higher and giving the USD a tailwind. The data is what

Rick Rieder, BlackRock’s Chief Investment Officer of Global Fixed Income. In summary. Federal Reserve Policy: The U.S. is entering a new phase of the rate-cutting cycle, distinct from the prior quarters.The Federal Funds Rate has been reduced to around 4%, which is still moderately restrictive but aligns better with inflation running in the low-to-mid 2%

These two things are clear: 1) Republicans control Congress, or at least they will shortly 2) We don’t know exactly what Republicans want The market is finding out the hard truth that the Republican party is a group of loosely-connected lawmakers that are seemingly only united by their hatred of Democrats. There are fiscal hawks

Progress on inflation has slowed relative to what we wantedWe don’t know what the incoming administration will do, so for me it’s about the dataRisks to the outlook are equally balancedI saw this cut as a close callThe recalibration phase is now overNow you wait watchfully before making further cutsMy projection is it will take

The GBPUSD is moving to new lows and in the process is chipping away at the November lows. The next downside targets will look toward the swing lows from NOvember 26 at 1.2506 and then the low from November 22 at 1.24865. Moving below those levels will take the pair to the lowest level from

Global multi-asset leader in online trading HF Markets Group (with brand names HFM and HF Markets), is proud to reaffirm its unwavering commitment to providing traders with unparalleled security and peace of mind. With advanced security technologies, fund protection measures, and a robust risk management framework, the HF Markets Group ensures a seamless trading experience

Is FedEx Stock a Buy After Earnings? A Unique Trade Idea to Consider (This one’s for the Swing Traders) FedEx (FDX) recently released its Q2 2025 earnings report on December 19, 2024, after market close. While the results showcased a mixed picture, the stock’s post-earnings move offers an intriguing opportunity for traders and investors to

China one year bond yield drops to 1%, first time since 2009. Earlier today we had the 1- and 5-year rates set unchanged: PBOC sets 1 year Loan Prime Rate (LPR) at 3.1% and 5-year at 3.6%, both unchanged No reduction despite ongoing easing pressure. The People’s Bank of China seems very concerned that further

Fundamental Overview The USD got a boost from the FOMC decision as the market perceived it as more hawkish than expected. Overall, apart from some slight tweaks, the Fed matched the market’s pricing. Nonetheless, the market reacted in a big way pushing Treasury yields higher and giving the USD a tailwind. The data is what

The release is not shifting AUD around to any noticeable extent. AUD/USD is sitting around 0.6231 an more or less on its session low. The rampantly strong USD continues to impact. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

In the video above and focus on the technicals that are driving the three major currency pairs – The EURUSD, USDJPY, and the GBPUSD. The markets are reacting to the chances of eight US government shutdown and the hangover from the Fed BOE and BOJ rate decisions. For the US stocks, it is not the

High Yield: 2.121% Compared to the previous auction’s yield of 1.67%.Higher than the six-auction average of 1.99%. Tail: 5.6 basis points Lower than the previous auction’s tail of 15 basis points.Lower than the six-auction average of 9.0 basis points.Note: The 5-year TIPS traded at 2.065% at 1:00 PM EST. Bid-to-Cover Ratio: 2.10x Lower than the

Eurostoxx -0.8%Germany DAX -0.8%France CAC 40 -0.8%UK FTSE -0.3%Spain IBEX -0.7%Italy FTSE MIB -0.8% The late selling in US trading yesterday has knocked down dip buyers and that is leaving a more defensive mood as we look towards the final stages of the week. US futures are also lower, with S&P 500 futures down 0.2%

Fundamental Overview The USD got a boost from the FOMC decision as the market perceived it as more hawkish than expected. Overall, apart from some slight tweaks, the Fed matched the market’s pricing. Nonetheless, the market reacted in a big way pushing Treasury yields higher and giving the USD a tailwind. The data is what

This lines up with what Morgan Stanley is saying after the FOMC meeting here. Expect more calls similar to this to follow as we look to the turn of the year. This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

Prior +0.2% The main rise on the month actually came from energy prices, which were up 1.8%. If you strip that out, producer prices actually fell by 0.1% on the month in November. But compared to the same month a year ago, they are 0.1% higher. This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

easyMarkets, a pioneer in the CFD brokerage industry, and Real Madrid C.F., the record holders of UEFA Champions League and LaLiga titles, have announced the renewal of their fruitful partnership at an event attended by Nikos Antoniades, CEO of easyMarkets, and Emilio Butragueño, Director of Institutional Relations at Real Madrid. The renewal of the partnership

Via analysts at UBS on US equites. Thye argue there are seven conditions that need to be met for the formation of a stock market bubble. Six of the seven have been met: the end of a structural bull marketprofits under pressureloss of market breadtha 25 year gap from the prior bubbleretail investor participationa “this

Prior -0.7%Retail sales +0.5% vs +0.8% y/y expectedPrior +2.4%; revised to +2.0%Retail sales ex autos, fuel +0.3% vs 0.0% m/m expectedPrior -0.9%Retail sales ex autos, fuel +0.1% vs +0.7% y/y expectedPrior +2.0%; revised to +1.6% This is a slight bounce in retail sales with ONS noting that the official Black Friday sales date will only

There are other steps to try before a shutdown is confirmed, but the indications are not looking positive right now. Comments from a US Republican member: “I am absolutely sickened by a party that campaigns on fiscal responsibility and has the temerity to go forward to the American people and say you think this is

The Wall Street Journal carries the report (gated): U.S. Weighs Ban on Chinese-Made Router in Millions of American Homes In brief: U.S. authorities are investigating whether TP-Link, a Chinese company dominating the U.S. home and small-business router market, poses a national security threat due to its alleged links to cyberattacks. The company, which supplies internet

Fundamental Overview The USD got a boost from the FOMC decision as the market perceived it as more hawkish than expected. Overall, apart from some slight tweaks, the Fed matched the market’s pricing. Nonetheless, the market reacted in a big way pushing Treasury yields higher and giving the USD a tailwind. The data is what

Finance ministry / Bank of Korea joint statement: South Korea to ease FX regulations to improve liquidity conditions No further details as yet. Here we go, more, via Reuters: “Strict regulations restrain the efficiency of foreign exchange management, and there is a need to take into account worsened foreign exchange liquidity conditions after recent events,”

Why it’s important? The ranges of estimates are important in terms of market reaction because when the actual data deviates from the expectations, it creates a surprise effect. Another important input in market’s reaction is the distribution of forecasts. In fact, although we can have a range of estimates, most forecasts might be clustered on

German DAX futures -0.7%UK FTSE futures -0.1% It’s been a rough week for equities and it might not change to end the week. US stocks were poised for a slight bounce back yesterday only to be dashed in the final hour of trading. The late selling is weighing on the optimism today with US futures

The main event in the European session was the UK Retail Sales data which missed on estimates, but didn’t really change anything in terms of market pricing. In the American session, we have the Canadian Retail Sales data and the US PCE report, but the market will focus mostly on the latter. 13:30 GMT/08:30 ET

People’s Bank of China Loan Prime Rate (LPR) setting for December 2024. Both the 1- and 5-year held steady, as ex at 3.1%and 3.6% respectively. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

ANZ-Roy Morgan New Zealand Consumer Confidence index for December 2024 comes in at 100.2 November was 99.8 As part of the survey are questions on Inflation expectations eased back 0.2%pts to 3.8%, where they’ve spent four of the past five months. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

The price of bitcoin has reached a low of $96782 and bounced modestly. The digital currency currently traders at $98434 down -$1739 or -1.71% on the day. Looking at the hourly chart, the price moved below the 100 and 200 hour MAs yesterday and then corrected higher, reaching the 200 hour MA (green line on

The People’s Bank of China set the onshore yuan (CNY) reference rate for the trading session ahead. USD/CNY is the onshore yuan. Its permitted to trade plus or minus 2% from this daily reference rate.CNH is the offshore yuan. USD /CNH has no restrictions on its trading range.A significantly stronger or weaker rate than expected

Japan fin min Kato with verbal intervention on yen No comment on FX levelsRecently seeing one-sided, sharp movesImportant for currencies to move in a stable manner reflecting fundamentalsWill take appropriate action against excessive movesConcerned about recent FX moves, including those driven by speculation **** Kato seems to have taken advice that saying hot words like:

And just like, another year has come and gone. This is arguably the final real trading day of the year for markets and it should be a case of winding things down after the central bank bonanza since last week. The dollar remains in a prominent position after the Fed while stocks remain shaky as

Trump says on social media: “I told the European Union that they must make up their tremendous deficit with the United States by the large scale purchase of our oil and gas. Otherwise, it is TARIFFS all the way!!!” It looks like even with a keen focus on China, the EU will not slip his

In 2024, the People’s Bank of China (PBoC) implemented significant reforms to its monetary policy framework to enhance the effectiveness of its policy transmission and better support economic growth. Shift to the 7-Day Reverse Repo Rate as the Main Policy Rate: Traditionally, the PBoC utilized multiple policy rates, including the Medium-term Lending Facility (MLF) and

Due on Friday at 0830 US Eastern time, the Core PCE data is the focus. The Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) data is a key measure of inflation that tracks changes in the prices of goods and services purchased by consumers. It is reported monthly by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) and is a critical

Good morning, afternoon and evening all. Any charts, technical analysis, trade ideas, thoughts, views, ForexLive traders would like to share and discuss with fellow ForexLive traders, please do so: This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

New Zealand credit card spending for December 2024 -3.2% y/y prior +0.3%% -1.3% m/m prior+0.4% Poor data. The GDP data yesterday was terrible, showing NZ in a recession. I noted later there were ‘green shoots’ emerging for the NZ economy in Q4. This data set is not one of them! This article was written by

Comments are here: Japan fin min Kato with verbal intervention on JPY – recent one-side, sharp yen moves USD/JPY had been ticking towards 158.00 but Kato’s comments have had some impact. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau is in a real battle for his political life and it looks like the clock is running out. I’d expect an election to be called in February but it’s going to try to get by with a new cabinet. Finance Minister Chrystia Freeland quit cabinet this week, setting off some

US stocks are modestly higher after the sharp declines during yesterday’s trading. Moreover the Dow is on pace to snap its 10 day decline that saw the index fall -6.12% from the high December 5 to the low price reached yesterday. The low price yesterday reached 42,407.79. That was just short of its 100 day

Japan inflation data November 2024, all figures are y/y. Headline national CPI 2.9% expected 2.9%, prior 2.3% CPI excluding Fresh Food & Energy 2.4% (often referred to as ‘core-core’ inflation, its the closest to US core inflation) expected 2.4%, prior 2.3% CPI excluding Fresh Food 2.7% (core inflation) expected expected 2.6%, prior 2.3% All three

People’s Bank of China USD/CNY reference rate is due around 0115 GMT. The People’s Bank of China (PBOC), China’s central bank, is responsible for setting the daily midpoint of the yuan (also known as renminbi or RMB). The PBOC follows a managed floating exchange rate system that allows the value of the yuan to fluctuate

The Mexican central bank cut its benchmark interest rate to 10% from 10.25%. The cut was as expected The decision was unanimousLooking ahead, the board expects that the inflationary environment will to keep cutting reference rate in view of the progress on disinflation, larger downward adjustments could be considered in some meetings, albeit maintaining a

The Bank of Japan (BOJ) left its short-term rate unchanged yesterday, while Governor Ueda spoke later: ForexLive Asia-Pacific FX news wrap: Bank of Japan leaves rates unchanged, yen slumpsForexLive European FX news wrap: Yen tumbles on Ueda, BOE keeps rates steady (this includes Ueda’s news conference) Today we get the latest update on Japan’s national

Late selling into the close has pushed the broader indices lower and into negative territory. The Dow held onto small gains – but just barely – and snapped it’s 10-day losing streak. The final numbers are showing” Dow Industrial Average rose 15.37 points or 0.05% at 42342.24S&P fell -5.09 points or -0.09% at 5867.07Nasdaq fell

Republican Congressman Tom Cole is saying there is a deal on the stopgap funding bill. This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

The price of crude oil futures are settling at $69.38. That is down -$0.64 or -0.91% on the day High of $70.54/bbl, low of $69.22/bbl. The price stayed below the 100 day MA at $71 him .14. It will take a move above that MA to increase the bullish bias. This article was written by

The old continent’s currency took a hard hit this year. Unfortunately, there hasn’t been much support from local policymakers or the economy. The most actively traded currency pair globally, EURUSD, slid below $1.05 on Wednesday after better-than-expected economic data from the eurozone. Despite starting the day in positive territory, the euro turned negative following the

Deutsche Bank is out with a note on yesterday’s FOMC meeting and they highlighted a significant shift in tone. While the Fed delivered a 25 basis point rate cut, bringing the federal funds rate to 4-1/4 to 4-1/2 percent, the bank’s analysts note that the overall tone was more hawkish than anticipated. The median inflation

Advance Q3 reading was +2.8% annualizedSecond estimate was +2.8% annualizedFinal Q2 reading was +3.0% annualized Details: Consumer spending +2.8% vs +3.5% second readingConsumer spending on durables +7.6% vs +8.1% second readingGDP final sales +3.3% vs +3.0% second readingGDP deflator +1.9% vs +1.9% second readingCore PCE +2.2% vs +2.1% second readingCorporate profits after tax -0.4% vs

The pound is flirting with the lows of the day and the lows of the month as the US dollar broadly strengthens. This four-hour chart is looking like a head-and-shoulders that would target 1.23 or at least the November lows. The Bank of England vote today was more-dovish than anticipated but the market is still

Eurostoxx -1.4%Germany DAX -1.1%France CAC 40 -1.3%UK FTSE -1.2%Spain IBEX -1.7%Italy FTSE MIB -1.3% The losses here aren’t anything as bad as what we saw with US indices yesterday at least. And that is at least helped partially by a better mood in US futures. S&P 500 futures are up 0.3% in what is a

The AUDUSD is correcting higher in trading today after the sharp move lower yesterday after the hawkish cut from the Federal Reserve. The price moved to a low near natural support at 0.6200 (the low reached 0.61983) and bounced. The high price today reached 0.62646. That was just below the low of a swing area

The rate on the 30-year mortgage in the US from Freddie Mac rose to 6.72% in the current week from 6.60% last week. That is still below the high from November which reached 6.84%. The high for the year was 7.22% reached on May 2, 2024. In other housing data today, existing home sales rose

Prior -23.3; revised to -23.1 There is a slight pickup in German consumer morale going into the turn of the year but it remains at a low level historically. GfK notes that “a sustained recovery in consumer sentiment is not yet in sight, as consumer uncertainty is still too high”. This article was written by

The USDJPY has continued the trend move to the upside and in doing so has reached a swing area between 157.55 adn 158.42. The high price has so far reached 157.80. The move to the upside based on Tueday and early Wednesday against the 100 hour MA. The FOMC decision led to to run higher

OK, I’ll admit it, my headline is a little but overblown. But, the rise of Chinese carmakers is sending shock waves through the global auto industry. For example: Honda and Nissan to begin merger talksNissan and Honda are said to be in talks to set up a holding company Via the Wall Street Journal (gated):

Micron stock just dived down upon its quarterly earnings last night. What’s the next play? Micron Technology (MU) posted its quarterly earnings on December 18th, an event that garnered substantial options activity—by some measures, the highest volume of any company reporting that evening. The underlying expectations were significant, with the options market pricing in roughly

It was something of a ‘catch up’ trade day for Europe as all the pain in US stocks yesterday took place after the European close. Despite that, it wasn’t that bad which is something of a win. Unfortunately though, European energy prices are soaring again and Germany’s auto manufacturing industry is being overrun by China.

The Fed cut rates, BUT they took back 2 of 4 cuts expected in September (only expect 2 cuts in 2025). As a result, the market is only pricing in an 8% chance of a cut in January and only 35 basis points of cuts by the end of 2025 (even more hawkish than the

Sector Overview Today’s US stock market is witnessing a significant upswing in the technology and automotive sectors, driven by gains in leading companies. Notably, the semiconductor sector is rebounding impressively, spearheaded by Nvidia (NVDA) which posts a robust 1.92% increase. Meanwhile, the technology giant Microsoft (MSFT) also sees a healthy rise of 1.16%, contributing to

On the bank rate vote, here’s what the calls are: Barclays: 8-1 vote for a hold but minor possibility it could be as much as 6-3BofA: 8-1 vote for a hold with risks for a 9-0Deustche: 9-0 vote for a holdGoldman Sachs: 8-1 vote for a holdHSBC: 8-1 vote for a holdJP Morgan: 8-1 vote

New Zealand Q3 economic growth data is just awful – a much larger contraction than was expected. New Zealand Q3 2024 GDP Performance: GDP Decline: The economy contracted by 1.0% in Q3 2024, following a revised 1.1% decrease in Q2 2024.Revision of Q2 Data: The Q2 contraction was revised downward due to updated annual data,

US President-elect Donald Trump has expressed four priorities for his time in the White House: Strong GDP growthLower fiscal deficitsImproved trade deficitsA higher stock market The problem is that you can’t have all those things. One way that Scott Bessant might be mulling is via a weaker dollar but that doesn’t look like it’s coming

The USD/CHF currency pair experienced a sharp upward move yesterday following the FOMC rate decision. The price climbed above the key resistance level of 0.9000, reaching a high of 0.90213 before retreating today. The decline extended toward the November high of 0.89569, where buyers provided some support. Stronger support lies in the 0.8914 to 0.8923

I mean, he’s kind of giving up the playbook here, no? Democrats still control the Senate so they can toss him this grenade. It would also be very difficult for many Republicans to vote to eliminate the debt ceiling. Overall though, I think markets should feel better about what Trump’s real priority is after seeing

In case you missed the events from earlier: The Federal Reserve cuts rates by 25 basis points, as expectedFOMC December 2024 dot plot and central tendencies of economic forecastsPowell opening statement: Inflation is much closer to 2% goalPowell Q&A: Today was a ‘closer call’ but we decided it was the right callBank of Japan leaves

Fundamental Overview The S&P 500 yesterday sold off aggressively following the FOMC decision as the market perceived it as more hawkish than expected. Overall, apart from some slight tweaks, the Fed was in line with the market’s expectations, and the selloff might have been an overreaction. There’s lots of noise during such big events, so

The major stock indices are moving to new lows as the Fed Chair says the call was a closer call with risk two-sided. That helped to push the USD higher as well. The Dow is down -0.83% while the S&P and the Nasdaq are down over 1% The S&P is currently down -1.04% and the

Bitcoin is struggling again in a poor sign for risk trades. It’s back through $100,000 in a quick move down from $102,500 in the past hour or so. The level to watch now is the Asian low of $98,677. There was a solid bounce from there earlier but if it breaks ewe could see a

Prior 96Manufacturing confidence 97Prior 97Services confidence 96Prior 98 The French business climate falls to its lowest since July as sentiment continues to worsen for Europe’s second largest economy. Of note, employment conditions are also seen weakening further with the index there dropping to 96 from 98 previously. That also matches its softest reading since July.

The USDCAD spiked higher with the overall dollar buying yesterday, and that took the price above a swing high from 2020 at 1.4348. The price today has moved back to the downside in trading today, but has so far found support at that swing level. It is a short term bias defining level that if

We have to combine other data in order to make rate decisions until thenVery difficult to predict what kind of impact Trump’s various policies will have I wouldn’t rule it out completely but from the communique we’re hearing today, it just doesn’t look like they are comfortable to be acting next month. All what markets

Prior was 3.96mSales +4.8% vs +3.4% prior US 30-year mortgage rates are flirting with 7% again and that’s not a good sign for the housing market. This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

The Federal Reserve cuts rates by 25 basis points, as expected. Dollar higher on dotsFOMC full statement for December 2024 meetingFOMC December 2024 dot plot and central tendencies of economic forecastsPowell opening statement: Inflation is much closer to 2% goalPowell Q&A: Today was a ‘closer call’ but we decided it was the right callAtlanta Fed

Bloomberg reports that the G7 is considering hardening the price cap on Russian oil and is even considering replacing the mechanism with a full ban on handling Russian crude. The market may get excited about this but I don’t think it’s a real threat. “Options under consideration range from essentially replacing the mechanism with a

Rate cuts by year-end Fed 2025: 36 bps (92% probability of no change at the upcoming meeting) ECB 2025: 110 bps (93% probability of rate cut at the upcoming meeting) BoE 2025: 47 bps (50% probability of rate cut at the upcoming meeting) BoC 2025: 49 bps (50% probability of rate cut at the upcoming

S&P 500 futures are up 0.8% and Russell 2000 futures are up 1%. Both of those moves only recover a small portion of the rout yesterday and they look vulnerable to further selling especially with 10-year yields breaking the November highs. It’s certainly a gut-check day and I think price action will reveal where the

Can’t say when particular rate cuts will take placeShould not over-interpret latest wage data The market is pricing at 46% for a February cut and has priced in 52 bps in easing in 2025. Cable is struggling and giving back earlier gains. It’s trading nearly flat now despite a broadly weaker USD (ex yen). This

Slight delay in the release by the source. There were surpluses recorded for goods (€30 billion) and services (€15 billion). That is offset by deficits for secondary income (€15 billion) and primary income (€5 billion). This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

December 18, 2024 Federal Reserve issues FOMC statement For release at 2:00 p.m. EST Share Recent indicators suggest that economic activity has continued to expand at a solid pace. Since earlier in the year, labor market conditions have generally eased, and the unemployment rate has moved up but remains low. Inflation has made progress toward

Fundamental Overview The Russell 2000 yesterday sold off aggressively following the FOMC decision as the market perceived it as more hawkish than expected. Overall, apart from some slight tweaks, the Fed was in line with the market’s expectations, and the selloff might have been an overreaction. There’s lots of noise during such big events, so

South Korean Finance Minister : will take market-stabilising measures if volatility is excessivewill prepare FX stability and liquidity measures in 2025 policy plan SK is recovering from the short-lived imposition of martial law. Financial markets there were rattled. The FOMC / Powell on Wednesday have seen KRW slide further (against the rampan US dollar). This

Tesla has been the big winner of the US election so far, rising 70% from election night. But the spell on the equity market may have cracked today. Shares hit a fresh record at $488.54 shortly after the US equity open today but have since reversed hard and are now down nearly 11% and are

🚨 Crude Oil Futures (CL) Analysis 🕒 Important Note Always correlate this analysis to the current price level and market context. Key levels mentioned here are potential reversal points or price magnets. Even if the AI suggests a directional bias, traders should pay close attention to how price reacts at these levels. Always trade with

The key line from Powell at Wedensday’s FOMC press conference was “it’s kind of fallen apart”, which isn’t the kind of thing you want to hear from a Fed chair in any context. But what was the context? A reporter asks Powell if what’s driving the hawkish shift is the election but he pushes back

We get a trio of economic data releases at the bottom of the hour including US initial jobless claims (shown above), the Philly Fed and final Q3 GDP. The one to focus on is claims. It caught the market off guard with a jump last week, though it looks like it was due to one-off

Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland President Beth Hammack was a dissent at the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) on Wednesday, saying “No” to a rate cut. Preferred a hold. I’ll come back to this. The Wall Street Journal’s Fed insider Nick Timiraos (who gave us the scoop on what was coming before it happened) has

Prior was -5.5New orders: -4.3 vs +8.9 priorShipments: -1.9 vs +4.5 priorUnfilled orders: +18.9 vs +6.8 priorDelivery times: +11.6 vs -2.1 priorInventories: -2.3 vs +5.4 priorPrices paid: +31.2 vs +26.6 priorPrices received: +7.3 vs +14.3 priorEmployment: +6.6 vs +8.6 priorAverage workweek: -8.2 vs +17.4 priorSix month index +30.7 vs +56.6 prior Responses to the December

German DAX futures -1.4%French CAC 40 futures -1.5%UK FTSE futures -1.1% A more hawkish Fed looks to have turned December on its head for equities. European indices look set for a sea of red in trying to catch up to the heavy losses in Wall Street yesterday. US futures are more muted today though, keeping

Bitcoin Futures Analysis: Key Levels, Insights, and AI Predictions 💹 Important Note for Bitcoin Traders ⚠️ Before diving into this analysis, it’s crucial to identify the time this analysis was generated and assess where Bitcoin’s price is when you’re reading it. Most importantly, carefully review the key levels to watch, as these can guide your

Don’t see persistent economic stagnation, inflation undershootingA 50 bps move would require projections showing persistent undershooting of inflationDon’t see a situation where rates would need to fall below neutralEuro weakness not creating inflationary pressures The message has been consistent across the board from the ECB since last week. So, this just adds to that. This

Japan economy still faces many uncertaintiesPrices remain highMust pay attention to financial, FX markets and their impact on economy, pricesFX impact has become larger than in the past as firms are more eager to raise wages, pricesWill keep adjusting degree of policy easing depending on economic, price outlookNeed more data on wages outlook and more

Prior week 242K Initial jobless claims 220K vs 230K estimate4-week moving average of the initial jobless claims 225.50K vs 224.25K last week Prior week continuing claims 1.886M revised to 1.879M last week. Continuing Claims for the current week 1.874M vs 1.890M est.4-week moving average of the continuing claims 1.880M vs 1.886M last week The weekly

Headlines: Dollar gives back some of its post-Fed gainsWeekly update on interest rate expectationsUSD/JPY ramps up to hit 156.00 on Ueda presserBOJ governor Ueda: Hard to say if incoming data will be sufficient to support January hikeBOJ governor Ueda: The big picture on wage trends will become clearer in March, AprilBOJ governor Ueda: January decision

In the video above, I go through the technicals that are guiding the 3-major currency pairs today – the EURUSD, USDJPY and GBPUSD – after the Fed, BOJ and BOE all announced interest rate decisions. This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

Fundamental Overview The Nasdaq yesterday sold off aggressively following the FOMC decision as the market perceived it as more hawkish than expected. Overall, apart from some slight tweaks, the Fed was in line with the market’s expectations, and the selloff might have been an overreaction. There’s lots of algo-driven noise during such big events, so

Hard to say if January outlook report, various data are sufficient for ‘one more notch’Can’t really predict what wage trends will be in JanuaryWe also still don’t know whether Trump will follow through on tariffsIf we decide not to hike, we will consider that decision as a safe oneThere is of course the risk of

In the European session, the main event will be the BoE Policy Decision where the central bank is expected to keep the Bank Rate unchanged. In the American session, the focus will switch to the US Jobless Claims data as it’s a timelier indicator of the labour market. We saw a spike recently, but we’ve

Prior 4.75%Bank rate vote 6-3 vs 8-1 expected (Dhingra, Ramsden, Taylor voted to cut bank rate by 25 bps)A gradual approach to removing monetary policy restraint remains appropriateWe can’t commit to when or by how much we will cut rates in 2025 as economic uncertainty is highServices consumer price inflation has remained elevatedRemaining domestic inflationary

Bank of Japan Statement, full text is here. more to come This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

Before yesterday, gold prices only moved down to test the 100-day moving average (red line) twice this year. Yes, that’s right. Just twice. The first was in February and the second in November. During both times, buyers held their ground but they fell short of holding the line in trading yesterday. A hawkish rate cut

There are a couple to take note of on the day, as highlighted in bold. And they are for EUR/USD once again, layered between 1.0365 to 1.0400. The pair is catching a notable downside break under 1.0400 after the Fed yesterday. The low touched 1.0343 and is just shy of the 22 November low of

January 2025 – Vantage Markets, a leading multi-asset trading platform, is excited to announce its participation at the highly anticipated iFX EXPO Dubai 2025, scheduled for January 14-16 at the Dubai World Trade Centre. As one of the premier global events for the FX, fintech, and crypto industries, the expo offers an unparalleled opportunity for

That includes assessment of wage trends, uncertainties of overseas economies and upcoming US administration’s policiesIt doesn’t mean that we need all the data to make a policy change thoughAt this point, there is little information available on wage trendsNeed to gauge situation for quite a while on both wages and possible Trump tariffs The angle

NZ economic growth data – gross domestic product (GDP) – contracted further in the September quarter: New Zealand Q3 GDP -1.0% q/q (vs. -0.4% expected) Q2 showed contraction also, thus cementing two straight quarters of decline. This is the widely-accepted definition of recession. NZD/USD had been falling, extended lower still: This article was written by

S&P 500 E-Mini Futures (ES) Analysis: AI Price Prediction & Key Levels 📈 ⚠️ Important Note ⚠️ Before diving into this analysis, it’s critical to identify the time this analysis was generated and compare it to the current price action when you read it. Pay close attention to the key levels to watch outlined below.

Recapping the Bank of Japan monetary policy decision today – rates unchanged againReserve Bank of New Zealand forecast to cut by 50bp in February, then by 25 in April & MayUSD/JPY jumps above 155.20 after BoJ votes 8 – 1 to leave rates unchanged againBank of Japan comprehensive review on past monetary easing stepsBank of

Inflation risks may shift to the downside in 2026But easing direction for monetary policy is clearThe economic environment will determine the terminal rateIt is best to keep a consistent pace towards the neutral rate Once again, it just echoes similar remarks from his peers since last week. That being they are still on the path

USD/JPY may be at the highs for the day at 156.85 but the dollar is lower against the rest of the major currencies bloc at the moment. The greenback is down around 0.3% to 0.4% across the board, so the losses elsewhere aren’t anything too significant as compared to the gains caught during the post-Fed

Reading between the lines, it looks like BOJ governor Ueda is alluding to the idea that the Japanese central bank might prefer waiting until March before hiking rates next. He kept pushing the narrative that they don’t have much information on the trend in wages and also talking up a lot of uncertainty in awaiting

Melbourne Institute Survey of Consumer Inflation Expectations in Australia for December 2024. Jumped to 4.2% from 3.8% in November. This is what I put together before today’s data (which I might have to rethink!): Its recently indicated a decline in consumer inflation expectations in Australia. In November 2024, the expected inflation rate decreased to 3.8%

The BoJ doesn’t have a scheduled time for their Statement, never do. Experience indicates to expect it sometime in the 0230 – 0330 GMT (2130-2230 US Eastern time) time window. Bank of Japan Governor Ueda will follow up with a press conference. This is scheduled. At 0630 GMT (0130 US Eastern time). The BoJ is

Fundamental Overview Gold dropped briefly below a key support yesterday following the FOMC decision as the market perceived it as more hawkish than expected. Overall, apart from some slight tweaks, the Fed was in line with the market’s expectations, and the market’s reaction might have been an overreaction. There’s lots of algo-driven noise during such

Inflation is much closer to 2% goalThe labor market is not a source of significant inflation pressuresTotal PCE prices likely rose 2.5% in 12 months ending in Dec, with core up 2.8%Inflation expectations remain well anchoredConsumer spending has been resilientInvestment in equipment has strengthenedWe are attentive to risks on both sides of the mandateWe are

🚨 Ethereum Price Prediction & ETH Futures Forecast 🕒 Important Note This Ethereum price prediction is based on current market conditions, at the time of writing, as ETH futures contract is at price $3,693. Key levels below and above this price serve as potential reversal zones or price magnets. Always monitor real-time price action and

If you count out the holiday period in the next two weeks, there’s only three purposeful weeks in markets until their next decision in January. It’ll be hard to see how they will get much more material information on wages, prices, and Trump’s tariffs arrangements. But we’ll see. Perhaps a plunging Japanese yen currency might

Here is the dot plot from September 2024 meeting: Here is the NEW dot plot from the December 2024 meeting: Below is the table of economic forecasts for GDP, Unemployment, PCE inflation and Core PCE inflation from the December 2024 meeting. What changes for 2025: Summary of the economic projections for EOY 2025: GDP higher

Come watch Powell dodge questions about Trump and tariffs while offering little about the path of rates goign forward. This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

The Fed cut and signalled a pause, ICYMI: The Federal Reserve cuts rates by 25 basis points, as expected. Dollar higher on dotsFOMC full statement for December 2024 meetingFOMC December 2024 dot plot and central tendencies of economic forecastsPowell opening statement: Inflation is much closer to 2% goalPowell Q&A: Today was a ‘closer call’ but

The Hong Kong Monetary Authority (HKMA) is Hong Kong’s de facto central bank. Its barely worth posting that they have cut their benchmark rate. They automatically match moves from the Federal Reserve’s Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC). But, its an opportunity to review how the HKMA manages the HKD and rates. The Hong Kong Monetary

Federal Reserve Chair Powell covered a lot of ground in his press conference today, with the emphasis on, of course, the outlook for monetary policy. He was asked by a reporter though if he sees value in the U.S. government building a bitcoin reserve. Powell was not enthusiastic: “We’re not allowed to own bitcoin” “The

Capital Economics on the NZ data “It was dramatically worse than anyone had expected,” and what it means for the Reserve Bank of New Zealand: “Given the dire state of the economy, we now think risks are tilted towards a larger 75bp cut in February.” he added. “We’re more convinced than ever that the Bank

ANZ New Zealand business survey for December 2024: Business confidence eased 3 points to +62 in Decemberbut expected own activity rose 2 points to +50past own activity (the best GDP indicator) jumped 10 points to 0. Past employment fell 1 point to -13. Pricing indicators and inflation expectations were little changed, but there was a

I get the question a lot, “What time is the Bank of Japan announcement due?” The answer is always the same, the BoJ doesn’t have a scheduled time for their Statement, never do. Experience indicates to expect it sometime in the 0230 – 0330 GMT (2130-2230 US Eastern time) time window. Bank of Japan Governor

MUFG analysts forecast the Bank of Japan (BoJ) will raise its policy rate by 25 basis points (bps), either at today’s meeting or in January. They project the BoJ will implement two additional hikes in 2025, bringing rates to 1.00%, aligning with the lower bound of the neutral rate range. The Spring 2025 “Shunto” wage

Bayrou has already courted controversy in staying on as the mayor of small French town, Pau, as he takes on the prime minister job in Paris. But that is perhaps the least of his worries at the moment. Much like his predecessor Michel Barnier, Bayrou has to find a balance within his government to satisfy

The posts from earlier are here: Bank of Japan leaves rates unchanged, as expectedBank of Japan comprehensive review on past monetary easing stepsUSD/JPY jumps above 155.20 after BoJ votes 8 – 1 to leave rates unchanged again But if you want a quickie rundown: Interest Rates Held Steady: The BOJ kept its short-term policy rate

Morgan Stanley expects the Fed to deliver two 25 bps rate cuts in 2025. This compares to their prior forecast of three 25 bps cuts. Background to this is the FOMC meeting/Powell news conference: Forexlive Americas FX news wrap: US dollar soars on hawkish dots This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

The BOJ announces the outcome of its comprehensive review on past monetary easing steps. Full text is here. comprehensive review concludes it is appropriate for the Bank to continue conducting monetary policy from the perspective of the sustainable and stable achievement of the 2% price stability target.review states that the Bank should not exclude any

In 2024, the Bank of Japan (BOJ) implemented significant shifts in its monetary policy to address evolving economic conditions: March 2024: The BOJ ended its long-standing negative interest rate policy, which had been in place to combat deflation and stimulate economic growth. This move marked the first rate increase in 17 years, signaling a shift

The background of policy moves from the Bank of Japan going into today’s meeting were two rate hikes this year: March 2024: The BOJ ended its long-standing negative interest rate policy, which had been in place to combat deflation and stimulate economic growth. This move marked the first rate increase in 17 years, signaling a

Headline is here from earlier: Westpac forecasts the Reserve Bank of New Zealand to cut cash rate to 3.25% by May 2025 Adding a little more in now: RBNZ to cut by 50bp at the February meeting, to 3.75%to cut by 25bp at the April meeting, to 3.5%to cut by 25 bp at the May

The major US stock indices fell sharply after the Fed signaled less easing in 2025. The end of your target for the Fed funds is now 3.9%. It was a 3.4% after the September meeting. The Dow industrial average is now down for 10 consecutive days. It’s decline for today is its worst single day

Economic growth data for Q3 2024 is due from New Zealand at 2145 GMT, which is 1645 US Eastern time. New Zealand’s economic performance in the first half of 2024 was modest, with slight fluctuations in GDP. First Quarter (Q1) 2024: GDP Growth: The economy experienced a 0.2% increase in GDP during the March 2024

The People’s Bank of China set the onshore yuan (CNY) reference rate for the trading session ahead. USD/CNY is the onshore yuan. Its permitted to trade plus or minus 2% from this daily reference rate.CNH is the offshore yuan. USD /CNH has no restrictions on its trading range.A significantly stronger or weaker rate than expected

Good morning, afternoon and evening all. Any charts, technical analysis, trade ideas, thoughts, views, ForexLive traders would like to share and discuss with fellow ForexLive traders, please do so: This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

Data from New Zealand earlier today was not encouraging – NZ in a recession: New Zealand “dramatically worse than anyone had expected” – RBNZ could cut by 75bp in FebNew Zealand Q3 GDP -1.0% q/q (vs. -0.4% expected)New Zealand dollar falls even further after GDP plunges This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

November 07December 18, 2024 Federal Reserve issues FOMC statement For release at 2:00 p.m. EST Share Recent indicators suggest that economic activity has continued to expand at a solid pace. Since earlier in the year, labor market conditions have generally eased, and the unemployment rate has moved up but remains low. Inflation has made progress

The Bank will face a battle propping up the yuan today *** People’s Bank of China USD/CNY reference rate is due around 0115 GMT. The People’s Bank of China (PBOC), China’s central bank, is responsible for setting the daily midpoint of the yuan (also known as renminbi or RMB). The PBOC follows a managed floating

There were certainly signs of excess in this market and now bitcoin is signalling worries. Bitcoin hit $108.3K yesterday but has traced out a three-candle reversal now. It’s down $4700 today or 4.4% and is now lower on the week. My question: What happens if bitcoin breaks $100K again? Also, I tend to think we

Prior was 4.50-4.75%The market was 97% priced in for a 25 bps cutFed adds a phrase about considering the ‘extent and timing’ of adjustments to ratesHammack dissents in favor of holding, no other dissentsPricing was for 48.3 bps of cuts in 2025, now at 39 bpsUSD/JPY was trading at 153.77 ahead of the release and

The GBPUSD moved lower – USD higher – on the Fed decision and in the process move below a swing area between 1.26598 and 1.2670. The 100 hour moving average at 1.26736 was also broken. That area is now topside resistance. Staying below is more bearish. On the downside, the next target area comes against

Ishiba wants to meet with the incoming US president. Discussions will centre on economic issues, particularly tariffs. Meanwhile, its BOJ day: Economic calendar in Asia – Do you know what time the BoJ announcement is? Read on! During Trump’s first term Japan PM Abe was a strong partner. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan

The EURUSD moved down to test the 50% of the range since 2022. The price moved below that midpoint earlier on November on the way to the low at 1.0332 (the lowest level since November 29, 2022. A move below the 50% will have traders looking toward a swing area between 1.0348 and 1.03657. Below

Vance’s post seems a bit muddled, but the gist of it is he and Trump want to pump up US debt even further, with an increase to the debt ceiling. Congress have not been discussing a debt ceiling hike, Trump’s proposal opens a whole new can of worms. The prospect of a shutdown have now

AUD/USD has dipped below the 2023 intraday low of 0.6270 after the Federal Reserve interest rate decision. The Fed cut rates by 25 basis points, as expected but the dot plot forecast for 2025 rose to 3.9% from 3.4%. Most market watches were expecting 3.6% or 3.7%. That’s kicked off a broad round of US

We don’t think we need further cooling in the labor market to get inflation down to 2%Labor market is quite gradually coolingWe see the inflation story as broadly on trackJob creation is below the level that would hold jobless rate consistentDownside risks to labor market have diminished but still cooling This article was written by

Prior +2.0%Core CPI +2.7% vs +2.7% y/y prelimPrior +2.7% No changes to the core estimate with services inflation also remaining sticky at 3.9%. The latter hasn’t really moved much in the last six months, continuing to hold closer to 4% still – as it was back in July. That shows that while the disinflation process

Earlier today in the Asian session the low of a swing area floor going back to the end of 2023 was broken at the 0.6334. That break, turned buyers to sellers and the price has continued that fall in the US session today. The swing area starting at 0.6334 up to 0.6363 is now close

Last week, CNBC’s Jim Cramer interviewed Donald Trump at the NYSE and one thing stuck out for me: The President-elect said: We’re going to be way ahead of AI, and we’ve got to produce tremendous amounts of electricity. It’s unbelievable when you think that we need more than twice what we already have. If you

The market is 96% priced for a quarter-point rate cut from the Federal Reserve today, bringing the Fed funds rate down to a range of 4.25-4.50%, what comes next is far less clear. The best way to look at 2025 might be a view of the year as a whole, because that’s what the FOMC

The major European indices are closing the day marginally higher. The gains were led by the France’s CAC, Spain’s Ibex and Italy’s FTSE MIB. The final numbers show: German DAX, +0.07%France’s CAC +0.26% UK’s FTSE 100 +0.05%Spain’s Ibex +0.26%Italy’s FTSE MIB +0.25% As London/European traders had for the exits, and the Fed rate decision is

Across the world, proprietary (prop) trading has experienced a surge in popularity, with traders attracted to the unique possibilities it presents them. Featuring a unique model that sets it apart from traditional online trading, it allows traders to access greater trading opportunities by using the funds of a prop firm or financial institution. With an

The People’s Bank of China set the onshore yuan (CNY) reference rate for the trading session ahead. USD/CNY is the onshore yuan. Its permitted to trade plus or minus 2% from this daily reference rate.CNH is the offshore yuan. USD /CNH has no restrictions on its trading range.A significantly stronger or weaker rate than expected

The EURUSD is moving to a new low on the day and in the process is moving away from the 200 hour MA and the 100 bar MA on the 4 hour chart. Those MAs come in at 1.0514 and 1.0522 respectively. Into the FOMC rate decision and moving above that area is needed to

PU Prime, a leading global fintech company specialising in trading and investment services, has added another milestone to its distinguished track record by clinching two prestigious awards at the 2025 Financial Trends Forum held in Taiwan. Organized by Business Today and FX GOLD, the event recognized industry excellence and innovation, and PU Prime stood out

Gold prices held steady this week at around $2,650/oz, weighed by recent US dollar strength, rising Treasury yields, and improving investor sentiment toward US equities. Since hitting an all-time high at the end of October, the metal has retreated 4.7%. However, UBS remains bullish on gold’s outlook, highlighting its strong performance—up nearly 29% year-to-date—which has

Today’s market snapshot reveals a mixed bag of performances across various sectors, with standout movements in semiconductors and automotive industries. Investors can leverage these developments to fine-tune their strategies. 📈 Semiconductor Surge The semiconductor sector is showing notable strength today, led by Nvidia (NVDA) with a robust gain of 2.33%. This uptick underscores renewed investor

The USD/CAD reached a new 2024 high, climbing to its highest level since March 2020. The key upside target from that period is 1.4348, with today’s high coming just shy at 1.4331. A sustained move above 1.4348 would signal further bullish momentum, solidifying buyers’ control and extending the ongoing trend higher. In trending markets like

The Atlanta Fed GDPNow growth estimate for Q4 rises to 3.2% from 3.1% after the housing starts data released earlier today. In their own words: The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the fourth quarter of 2024 is 3.2 percent on December 18, up from 3.1 percent on December

Data from (in order) New Zealand, Japan and then Australia. None of it is likely to move major FX around too much. Especially given it’s the pre-FOMC session in Asia when traders will invoke the ‘wait until the FOMC’ excuse to do not too much at all. This snapshot from the ForexLive economic data calendar,

Both the Swiss government and the private KOF Swiss Economic Institute expect slower growth for the economy. Switzerland’s State Secretariat for Economic Affairs (SECO) Economic Growth Forecasts: 2023: Swiss economy projected to grow 0.9% (down from a prior forecast of 1.2%).2024: Growth forecast revised to 1.5% (previously 1.6%).2026: First forecast predicts 1.7% growth.All forecasts are

Prior was 1.356mStarts -1.8% vs -3.1% priorBuilding permits 1.505m vs 1.430m expectedPermits % vs -2.9% prior Home builders have been some of the worst-performers since the election on inflation and high-rate fears. With a number like this, I don’t imagine today will be any better, though the single-family numbers here are more-promising than the headline

The drop this week is continuing after the break under the August low of 0.6347. That is leading the pair to fall to its lowest levels this year with the low today touching 0.6305. We are seeing price action keeping thereabouts now, with eyes on the October 2023 lows of 0.6270-01 next. For today, the

Fundamental Overview The USD continues to consolidate around the highs except against the commodity currencies where it extended into new highs. The US inflation data last week was once again a disappointment although the data that feeds into the Core PCE was overall benign as forecasters expect a 0.13% M/M increase. Nonetheless, the Treasury yields

Pay increases offered by British employers remained steady at 4% in the three months leading up to November, but they are expected to slow in 2025 as companies adjust to higher tax burdens introduced in the government’s latest budget, according to a Brightmine survey. Current Pay Trends: Median pay awards held steady at 4% for

Bank of America analysts reaffirm their belief that U.S. equities remain firmly positioned within a secular bull market that originated from the depths of the 2008-2009 Global Financial Crisis (GFC). The bullish trajectory, they note, first solidified in 2013 when the S&P 500 surpassed its pre-GFC all-time highs. Despite significant disruptions, including the pandemic-induced pullback

Gasoline +2348K vs +2060K expDistillates -3180K vs +661K expRefinery utilization -0.6% vs -0.2% exp Private oil data released late yesterday: Crude -4700KGasoline +2400KDistillates +700K Ahead of the data, WTI crude oil was up 82-cents to $70.90, having erased all of the decline on Tuesday. Crude increased further since the data. This article was written by

Historically, the best single day to own stocks is any day that the Federal Reserve is making a decision. Many in the market are worried about a hawkish Powell today once again but during his term he’s proven over and over that he is more-inclined to be dovish. Eyes today will be on the dots,

Also prudent not to pre-commit to any particular rate pathDisinflation process is well on trackDomestic inflation should come downFinancing conditions remain restrictiveDetermined to ensure that inflation stabilises at 2% Once again, all of this just continues to echo the message from his peers and rebuffs their communique from last week’s policy decision. EUR/USD remains flat

The major US stock indices are opening little changed on the day. Yesterday, the major indices all fell with the Dow industrial average falling for its ninth consecutive day – mainly on the declines from UnitedHealth and Nvidia over that period which saw their prices decline by over 20% and over 10% respectively. A snapshot

The main highlight in the European session was the UK CPI report which was basically in line with estimates. Looking ahead, we will also get the Eurozone CPI data but given that it’s the Final reading, the market won’t care much about it. In the American session, we have the US Housing Starts and Building

Prior quarter $-266.8 billion revised to $-275.0BCurrent Account -$310.8B vs -$284.0B estimate Exports of goods and services to, and income received from, foreign residents increased $6.0 billion to $1.21 trillion in the third quarter. Imports of goods and services from, and income paid to, foreign residents increased $42.0 billion to $1.52 trillion.1 Exports of goods

Justin had the news on Tuesday here: China is said to be planning a record budget deficit of 4% of GDP for next year. That will be a step up from the target of 3% of GDP for this year. To 4% from 3% is substantial. Justin adds the caveat: Just be wary that all

There is just one to take note of on the day, as highlighted in bold. However, watch out for the very, very much larger expiries on Friday! The one for today is for EUR/USD at the 1.0500 level once again. And that is likely to help keep price action more muted closer to the figure

The USD is little changed with the DXY index down marginally. THe change in the USD vs the EUR, CAD, GBP is less than 0.5%. The USD is higher vs the AUD (+0.25%) and the NZD (+0.33%) as those currencies continue their move lower and have each broken below key floors on their daily charts

Headlines: AUD/USD extends downside run, eyes on the October 2023 lows nextECB’s Wunsch: Impact of tariffs depends on reaction in the exchange rateECB’s Wunsch: There is no appetite to change inflation targetECB’s Lane: It is prudent to maintain meeting-by-meeting approachECB’s Lane: The argument for cutting by 50 bps was to show we are no longer

In The GBPUSD started the NY session on a positive note, trading above both the 100-hour moving average (MA) and the 100-bar MA on the 4-hour chart (blue lines outlined on the price above). US Morning Session: The price initially dipped but found support near the converging 100-bar MAs (hour and 4-hour chart) at 1.2686,

Major currencies are mostly little changed with exception of the aussie and kiwi today. Both the antipodes are being pulled lower, breaking to fresh lows for the year. AUD/USD is down 0.4% to 0.6311 now upon a break of key technical support from the August low highlighted here. Meanwhile, NZD/USD is down 0.3% to 0.5735

Gold Futures Analysis: Key Levels and Near-Term Outlook 🏆📊 February 2025 Contract | 50 Range Chart Analysis Current Overview Gold futures are trading within a tight range, showing mixed momentum as buyers and sellers battle for control. While buyers have stepped in at critical support levels, sell-side activity has reemerged, signaling potential hesitation near resistance.

China’s bond market is screaming the “D” word. “D” as in depression.US dollar reaction on Fed hints at slowing the pace of interest-rate cuts may be mutedAustralia regulator pursuing Binance Australia Derivatives re consumer protection failuresBOJ is expected to hold its policy rate at 0.25% in its December 18-19 meeting – previewICYMI – Switzerland has

The USD/CHF reached its highest level since July this week but fell short of the key resistance zone on the daily chart, located between 0.8986 and 0.90178. This area remains a critical topside target, and a break above it would open the door for further upside momentum. Buyers will be eyeing this level closely in

Prior -19 Ouch. That’s the biggest plunge in the order book balance since November 2020. Adding to that, the manufacturing output volume for the past three months also experienced its sharpest decline since August 2020. And for the coming three months, output expectations were the weakest since May 2020. It’s not a good sign as

Eurostoxx +0.1%Germany DAX +0.1%France CAC 40 +0.1%UK FTSE +0.2%Spain IBEX -0.1%Italy FTSE MIB +0.1% The gains are marginal and isn’t reflective of much to start the session. US futures are higher but again, it’s still early in the day with Wall Street yet to have their say and then we also have the Fed coming

We’re not going to make up for what is difficult on the political frontIt is not our role to supercharge the economy in the face of structural issuesNot sure if there is a broad consensus of having to react forcefully to inflation below 2%We will look at inflation, wages, growth, PMI in deciding policy There

Fundamental Overview Copper recently got a boost from the Chinese Politburo announcement that it will adopt a “moderately loose” strategy for monetary policy for 2025 and will seek a “more proactive” fiscal policy. These were key changes in the language that triggered a rally in Chinese stocks and commodity linked markets. Unfortunately, as it’s been

Composite Index up 0.6% m/m, accelerating from October’s 0.4%Year-over-year increase of 2.4%, up from 1.4% in OctoberPrices have gained 2.2% since BoC’s first rate cut in June Year-over-year standouts: Quebec City: +11.8%Calgary: +9.8%Montreal: +6.8%Victoria: -1.3%Toronto: -0.3% This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

US November retail sales control group +0.4% vs +0.4% expectedCanada CPI for November 0.0% versus 0.1% estimateNAHB December US housing market index 46 vs 47 expectedUS November industrial production -0.1% vs +0.3% expectedUS treasury sells $13B of 20 year bonds at a high yield of 4.686%Honda and Nissan to begin merger talksNew Zealand Q4 consumer

Google Stock Analysis: Key Levels and AI-Assisted Insights 🚀 Current Overview Alphabet (GOOG) stock, what many still call Google stock, is trading near $198.54, aligning with yesterday’s VWAP—a critical price magnet. Price has retraced upward after testing the $196.90 support (yesterday’s VAL) and is now aiming for junctions that could trigger significant market reactions. 🔑

National Australia Bank are sticking with their forecast for the first Reserve Bank of Australia rate cut at the May 2025 meeting, although acknowledge February is a possibility. More from NAB’s report: Unemployment Outlook: Expected to peak at 4.3% before easing to 4.2% by 2026 as the economy stabilizes.Employment growth remains positive, with unemployment settling

🚀 NVDA Stock Price Prediction: Key Levels and AI-Assisted Analysis for Traders 📊 NVIDIA (NVDA) Stock Update | February 2025 Contract Current Overview: NVDA Price Prediction by AI 📈 NVIDIA (NVDA) stock price is rebounding strongly in pre-market, up approximately 6% from the ForexLive.com AI prediction and trade idea from yesteday for NVDA after testing

Prior +2.3%Core CPI +3.5% vs +3.6% y/y expectedPrior +3.3% The figures are consistent with a rise in prices on an annual basis for November, that after Ofgem removed the energy price cap back in October. In any case, this just reaffirms the case for the BOE to stay on hold for this week. Looking at

Prior +5.4%Market index 224.0 vs 225.5 priorPurchase index 157.1 vs 154.9 priorRefinance index 617.5 vs 634.0 prior30-year mortgage rate 6.75% vs 6.67% prior Overall mortgage applications fell in the past week but there is a mixed showing. Purchases activity were higher, recovering from the setback in the week prior but refinancing activity fell after the

Tesla (TSLA) Stock Analysis: Key Levels and AI-Assisted Price Prediction 🚀 Current Overview Tesla (TSLA) stock is showing retracement strength in pre-market after initial sell-side pressure, with price approaching today’s VWAP at $468.74. While price is attempting to recover, the overall bias remains cautious as sellers dominated early sessions. Traders must closely watch Tesla’s reaction

Fundamental Overview The fundamentals in the crude oil market haven’t changed much. The price action remains confined in a range between the 72.00 resistance and the 67.00 support as the market continues to weigh the future scenarios. On one hand, we have the Trump’s victory which might be seen as bearish for fear of the

A larger euro depreciation would cushion the impact of tariffs on growthBut it would make a larger impact on inflationIf euro touches parity against the dollar, we wouldn’t lose as much in terms of competitivenessI guess we’ll land with rates somewhere around 2%Four more rate cuts is a meaningful scenario that I feel relatively comfortable

The number of foreign visitors in November was 3.19 million, just slightly down from the monthly record in October last month of 3.31 million. As a whole in the 11 months in 2024, Japan has had 33.4 million visitors and that beats out the previous record set out for the whole of 2019 which was

Chinese equities are in a precarious place. They’re cheap but testing the lows of the pop that started in late-September. That could go either way as investors could bid up those companies in part due to the lack of alternatives. I think the best way to look at China is through the investable universe: Equities

Fundamental Overview The USD continues to consolidate around the highs except against the commodity currencies where it extended into new highs. The US inflation data last week was once again a disappointment although the data that feeds into the Core PCE was overall benign as forecasters expect a 0.13% M/M increase. Nonetheless, the Treasury yields

Forward rates curve shows that delivering on 2% target requires more rate cuts to come Well, they did remove the wording that rates were “sufficiently restrictive” after their policy decision last week here. That even as they did settle on a 25 bps rate cut, instead of a 50 bps move. This article was written

Fundamental Overview Bitcoin is now up more than 50% since the election day as the bullish momentum in the cryptocurrency exploded following Trump’s victory. This shouldn’t be surprising given that Trump vowed to make the US the crypto capital of the planet. Another bullish driver has been the US economy which not only has been

🚀 Bitcoin Price Prediction by AI and: Key Levels to Watch for Current Range-Bound Trading 📊 Current Overview: Bitcoin Futures (December Contract) Bitcoin futures are currently consolidating within a well-defined range as buyers struggle to gain control, and sellers maintain slight dominance. Price remains capped at key resistance while testing critical support levels, creating a

New Zealand consumer confidence rose to 97.5 in Q4 from 90.8 in the prior quarter, according to the Westpac McDermott Miller survey. This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

A Wall Street Journal opinion piece. Which seems to be well-founded. China’s Bond Yields Scream the ‘D’ Word The Journal is gated, but in very brief from the article: China’s bond market reflects deep economic stress, with 10-year sovereign yields falling to 1.7% and 30-year yields below 2%. businesses are struggling, unemployment is severe, and

German DAX futures -0.1%French CAC 40 futures +0.2%UK FTSE futures +0.2% The changes are light as we look to the session ahead, with US futures also keeping slightly calmer for now. S&P 500 futures are up 0.1% but all eyes are on the Fed today to dictate the overall risk mood. In Wall Street, the

Good morning, afternoon and evening all. Any charts, technical analysis, trade ideas, thoughts, views, ForexLive traders would like to share and discuss with fellow ForexLive traders, please do so: This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

The price of WTI crude oil is settling at $69.65. That is down $0.64 or -0.89%. The low for the day reached $68.84. The high was at $70.50. Looking at the daily chart, the price high from Friday’s trade stalled right under the 100-day moving average is $71.30. Stay below that moving average keeps the

The Federal Reserve’s Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) is expected to cut Fed Funds by 25bp at today’s meeting. Statement due at 1400 US Eastern time Looking further out is muddier, though. The Wall Street Journal’s Nick Timiraos: Over the past year, officials have slowly raised their estimates of where rates will settle out, and

Japan trade balance data for November 2024 Slumping imports are generally taken to mean the economy is performing poorly. Japan’s economy is not giving a rock star like performance, but its on the improve. Exports to the US -8% y/ythe EU -12.5% y/yChina +4.1% y/yAsia +8.9% y/y This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at

Bank of Japan (BOJ) December policy meeting concludes on Thursday. As always, there is no firmly scheduled time for the Bank’s Statement. Its reasonable to expect it sometime in the 0230 to 0330 GMT time window. 2130 – 2230 US Eastern time The BOJ is expected to hold its policy rate at 0.25% during its

Australian Securities and Investments Commission (ASIC) has filed allegations in the Federal Court claiming that more than 500 retail clients of Oztures Trading Pty Ltd, operating as Binance Australia Derivatives (Binance), were incorrectly classified as wholesale clients, depriving them of essential consumer protections. Between 7 July 2022 and 21 April 2023, Binance reportedly provided crypto

US media with the report: House Foreign Affairs Committee chairman Michael McCaul said Tuesday that he believes that some unidentified drones spotted above New Jersey and New York are “spy drones” from China“I was with the NASA administrator, Bill Nelson, he said that these drones have been reported over military sites, military bases. I would

People’s Bank of China USD/CNY reference rate is due around 0115 GMT. The People’s Bank of China (PBOC), China’s central bank, is responsible for setting the daily midpoint of the yuan (also known as renminbi or RMB). The PBOC follows a managed floating exchange rate system that allows the value of the yuan to fluctuate

Bank of America’s latest global fund manager survey finds that investor sentiment is “super-bullish” in December, reflecting a surge in optimism about economic growth and financial markets. The survey highlights: Record-Low Cash Allocation: Investors have cut cash holdings to record lows.Record-High U.S. Stock Allocation: Allocation to U.S. equities has reached unprecedented levels.Global Risk Appetite: Risk

When Argentina was mentioned just a year ago, economists immediately thought of three things: skyrocketing inflation, the devaluation of the Argentine peso, and government default. These issues became defining features of the Peronist and, later, Kirchnerist governments. However, as history has shown, trying to combat inflation by increasing public spending doesn’t work in practice and

Bank of America analysts suggest the dollar may show little reaction even if the Federal Reserve hints at slowing the pace of interest-rate cuts during its decision on Wednesday. While the market anticipates a 25-basis-point rate reduction, the Fed could also indicate a pause in January. Slower rate cuts would typically support the dollar, but

South Korea Finance Minister Choi: will utilise all available resources to manage the economy as stably as possible. South Korea Foreign Minister Cho noted that US President Biden expressed confidence in Korean democracy and support for the bilateral alliance in a recent phone call.Cho stated they will make every effort to bring diplomacy back to

Headlines via Reuters: Australia sees 2024/25 budget deficit at A$26.9 bln vs A$28.3 bln projected in MayAustralia sees 2025/26 budget deficit at A$46.9 bln, 2026/27 A$38.4 blnAustralia sees GDP growth at 1.75% in 2024/25, 2.25% in 2025/26Australia sees unemployment rate at 4.5% in 2024/25, through to 2026/27Australia government sees net debt at A$1.16 trillion in

High yield 4.686%WI level at the time of the auction: 4.671% Details Tail: 1.5 bps vs 6-month average 0.6bpsBid-to-Cover: 2.50X vs 6-month average 2.57xDealers: 17.9% vs 6-month average 13.3%Directs ( a measure of domestic demand): 20.1% vs 6-month average 15.3%Indirects (a measure of international demand): 62.0% vs 6-month average 71.4% Auction Grade: D- The auction

Westpac-Melbourne Institute Leading Index for November improves a touch again. Info in brief from the WPAC report: The six-month annualised growth rate in the Westpac-Melbourne Institute Leading Index, which indicates the likely pace of economic activity relative to trend three to nine months into the future, stayed in positive territory in the November, lifting slightly

NZD not a lot moved, up a tic or so. The current account represents the most comprehensive gauge of a nation’s international financial interactions. It encapsulates not just the exchange of goods and services, but also earnings from foreign investments and payments made on investments from abroad within NZ. In addition, it covers transfers like

There are multiple factors weighing on the hapless AUD. The only fresh news today is the ballooning debt: Australian government forecasts ballooning debt AUD/USD to its lowest since late November 2023: In a ‘hold my beer’ moment, the NZD/USD is to its lowest since November 2022 This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

CNBC is reporting that Honda and Nissan are beginning merger talks. If you are not Tesla, and you are an auto maker, you are not doing too well. Honda shares are down -17.57% in 2024 This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

Via oilprice.com on Twitter: — Expectations for change I had seen centred on: Headline crude -1.6 mn barrelsDistillates +0.7 mn bblsGasoline +2.1 mn — This data point is from a privately-conducted survey by the American Petroleum Institute (API). It’s a survey of oil storage facilities and companiesThe official report is due Wednesday morning US time.

Greg had the merger scuttlebutt talks overnight: Honda and Nissan to begin merger talks Updating now – Reuters reports the two are discussing setting up a holding company. More: Merger Talks: Nikkei reports Honda and Nissan are discussing a potential merger under a holding company.Inclusion of Mitsubishi: Mitsubishi Motors (24% owned by Nissan) may also

The Dow extended its longest losing streak since 1978 to 9 trading days. That streak has been largely attributed to UniitedHealth. The price of that stock is down -22.0% since December 4. However, Nvidia is also down -11.02% over the last 9 trading days (so it isn’t a one hit wonder). The Nasdaq index and

Credit Agricole anticipates a 25bp rate cut at the December FOMC meeting, lowering the fed funds target range to 4.25-4.50%. While this is broadly expected, a hawkish tone could emerge, with the Fed signaling slower cuts in 2025 amid resilient economic conditions and sticky inflation. Key Points: Expected Action: 25bp rate cut, marking the third

Prior was 46 The creep higher in rates isn’t going to help the undersupply of US housing, nor is the tough housing market in Florida. This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

Interactive Brokers chairman Thomas Peterffy spoke in an interview with Bloomberg. bitcoin crash could trigger a broader stock market declinerising leverage in bitcoin futures poses significant risks to broader assets”A downturn is a very big risk because margin balances have been growing very, very quickly,” “I am very worried that people overextended themselves,”(BTC is) “basically

Prior control group was -0.1% Headline retail sales +0.7% versus +0.4% expectedPrior m/m sales +0.4% (revised to +0.5%)Retail sales $724.6 billion versus $718.9 billion priorRetail sales y/y +3.8% versus +2.85% prior (highest since Dec 2023)Ex autos +0.2% versus +0.4% expectedPrior ex autos +0.1% prior (revised to +0.2%)Ex autos and gas +0.2% versus +0.1% prior Ahead

Updated Perspective for NVDA Stock Holders and Potential Buyers. Recent order flow data of NVDA stock suggests that the selling pressure has been more dominant than buying over the last sequence of bars. While there have been occasional positive deltas—indicating brief periods where buyers stepped in—the overall tone still skews slightly bearish. This environment may

The US treasury will auction $13B of 20-year bonds at 1 PM ET. The last auction of the issue was sold at a high yield of 4.68% The current yield is just below that level at 4.653% ahead of the auction. BMO has outlined the Pros and Cons heading into the auction: Pros 20s have

News here: 7.4 magnitude earthquake Vanuatu New Zealand authorities: Let’s hope the folks in Vanuatu are fine and no one has been injured. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

Canadian population growth has been a major reason for the ongoing downfall of Prime Minister Justin Trudeau, though his government is now trying to reverse it. Statistics Canada is out with the Q3 population report and it shows: Quarterly growth of 176,699 people (+0.4%) — slowest quarterly growth since Q1 2022Canada’s population reached 41,465,298non-permanent resident

Prior 85.7Current conditions 85.1 vs 84.0 expectedPrior 84.3Expectations 84.4 vs 87.5 expectedPrior 87.2 The struggle continues for the German economy as business sentiment falls further to wrap up the year. That is the lowest reading since May 2020, with the outlook index slumping hard in the latest Ifo report. The expectations reading is down to

China’s capital markets experienced a record net outflow of $45.7 billion in November The data tracking cross-border investments in stocks and bonds was released by China’s foreign exchange regulator (State Administration of Foreign Exchange (SAFE), which is overseen by the People’s Bank of China) on Monday. portfolio investment receipts amounted to $188.9 billion Cross-border receipts

Bitcoin Directional Bias Prediction Score by AI: +1 (Slightly Bullish) As Bitcoin continues to evolve as a major player in the digital asset space, savvy investors and traders remain keenly interested in the nuances of its intraday price behavior. Understanding the structure and key reference points—such as Value Areas and VWAP (Volume-Weighted Average Price)—can help

The Atlanta Fed GDPNow growth estimate for 4Q comes in at 3.1% down from 3.3% on December 9. IN their own words: The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the fourth quarter of 2024 is 3.1 percent on December 17, down from 3.3 percent on December 9. After recent

Held at the Etihad Arena in Abu Dhabi from December 19 to December 22, this year’s event combines world-class tennis with live music, set to captivate millions of fans worldwide. The 2024 WTL boasts a roster of top-ranked athletes, including: Aryna Sabalenka, Iga Swiatek, Jasmine Paolini, Casper Ruud, Nick Kyrgios, Simona Halep, Stefanos Tsitsipas, Paula

Prior was -0.4% This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

Prior was -2.8%Avg price $4148 USD/MTWhole milk powder -2.9% This is the first decline after gains at the four prior auctions. This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

Fundamental Overview The USD continues to consolidate around the highs except against the commodity currencies where it’s been having the upper hand. The US inflation data last week was once again a disappointment although the data that feeds into the Core PCE was overall benign as forecasters expect a 0.13% M/M increase. Nonetheless, the Treasury

US major indices are lower with the Dow down for the 9th consecutive day. The Nasdaq closed at a record level yesterday but with no help from Nvidia which is now in correction mode after falling more than 10% from its all-time high reached on November 21 at $157.89. The Nvidia price gapped lower at

Stoxx 600 -0.3%German DAX -0.3%France CAC +0.2%UK FTSE 100 -0.6%Spain IBEX -1.4%Italy’s FTSE MIB -1.1 It’s been a tougher stretch for European markets with most of the December gains erased in the STOXX 600 and the FTSE 100 back to November 22 levels. This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

Both the AUDUSD and the NZDUSD are trading lower and in the process testing key support targets. The video above goes through the technicals driving the pairs. Below are the key technical points outlined in the video for each pair. AUDUSD Technical Analysis:The AUDUSD is retesting a key support swing area on the daily chart

There’s not much appetite for traders to stray away from the prevailing price action to be honest. The euro remains on the softer side as the ECB reaffirms more rate cuts to follow next year. That sees traders pricing in ~89% odds of a rate cut for January for now. Meanwhile, the Fed is surely

The USDCAD is breaking to new session highs, moving further away from the mid-April 2020 high at 1.4265 and approaching the early April 2020 peak at 1.4348. Buyers have maintained control since the pair bottomed at 1.3423 during the week of September 21, rallying nearly 900 pips since then. Hourly Chart Analysis:Sellers had an opportunity

The Westpac–Melbourne Institute Consumer Sentiment Index for December is all that’s listed on the data calendar here today. This index has shown improvements in recent months, reflecting a cautiously optimistic shift among Australian consumers. November 2024: Index Value: The index rose by 5.3% to 94.6 points, marking the highest level in two and a half

Stock Market Snapshot: A Tale of Diverging Fortunes in Tech and Communication The stock market today is a mixed bag, reflecting a complex landscape of gains and losses across sectors. While semiconductor stocks are grappling with substantial losses, communication services are shining amidst the volatility. 🔍 Sector Overview The semiconductor sector continues to face headwinds,

In an era where artificial intelligence is reshaping industries, Xterio is taking a bold step forward by partnering with Reka, a leading AI startup, to develop emotionally intelligent AI agents that promise to transform gaming, Web3, and beyond. These agents, powered by a proprietary emotion engine, are designed to interact, adapt, and evolve like human

Nomura Securities’ Global FX Strategy team forecasts a potential strengthening of the U.S. dollar in 2025, driven by two main factors: persistently high core inflation in the United States, which may hinder the Federal Reserve’s ability to lower interest rates, and the tariff policies of President-elect Trump, which could significantly influence economic conditions. The analysis

With Bitcoin going through the roof in 2024 and the entire crypto market showing substantial growth, retail investors’ interest in this asset class also peaked. But how best to profit from the changes occurring in the crypto market and what avenues of investment to choose? The experts at Octa, a broker with globally recognised licences,

Call it the Taylor Swift effect. CIBC highlights an unusual jump in concert and hotel prices in Canada in the November CPI report, assuredly due to the pop star’s tour through Canada in the month. Though they do wonder if the data could be lagged as the price bumps in Canada were less than seen

We will discuss neutral rate once we near 2.5%. The current policy rate is at 3.00%, so we have two more 25 bps cuts ahead before reaching that level. This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at www.forexlive.com.

As the Nasdaq closes at a new record, the Dow has now fallen for 8 consecutive daysBOC’s Macklem:In the future the world is set to be more prone to shocks than we would likeCanada will name Dominic Leblanc as new finance ministerNew Zealand November median house price -0.5% MoMThis could finally be the end of

The DZY index is trading up 0.9% in early US trading with mixed results. Versus the major currencies: EUR up 0.12%JPY down -0.21%GBP down -0.17%CHF up 0.29%CAD up 0.37%AUD up 0.46%NZD of 0.40% Below is a technical look to kickstart the trading day with a technical look at the EURUSD, USDJPY and GBPUSD. As the

Bank of America is out with its latest fund manager survey and it’s littered with red flags about a crowded stock market, particularly in US equities. This chart might stand out the most as it indicates that cash allocations are the lowest since January 2002. Combine that with IBKR’s Chairman highlighting that retail is over-leveraged,

Canada is in political turmoil but that’s hardly the driver of the latest leg lower in the Canadian dollar. If anything, odds are improving for a spring election and that’s something the market would smile on. Unfortunately, what’s weighing on the Canadian dollar won’t be easily fixed by an election. The housing market is struggling

The People’s Bank of China set the onshore yuan (CNY) reference rate for the trading session ahead. USD/CNY is the onshore yuan. Its permitted to trade plus or minus 2% from this daily reference rate.CNH is the offshore yuan. USD /CNH has no restrictions on its trading range.A significantly stronger or weaker rate than expected

Prior €12.5 billion The narrowing trade surplus in the euro area is a bit of a worry. It is a spot to keep an eye out for as it could signal worsening trade developments in the region, particularly Germany, going into next year. Here’s the breakdown: This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

Fundamental Overview The USD continues to consolidate around the highs except against the commodity currencies where it’s been having the upper hand. The US inflation data last week was once again a disappointment although the data that feeds into the Core PCE was overall benign as forecasters expect a 0.13% M/M increase. Nonetheless, the Treasury

Japan economy minister Akazawa: BOJ to conduct appropriate monetary policyBoJ and government will work togetherBoJ should handle the specifics of monetary policy Akawaza with nods to Bank of Japan independence. The BOJ does not tend to display the same independence as perhaps pothr G3 and G7 central banks do (and some G20). The BoJ meet

Over the last 8 trading days: The Nasdaq index has seen a 2.40% gain. On the opposite end of the spectrum, the Dow over the last 8 days has not had a positive day (down 8 straight days). The index is down around -2.98% from the high 8-days ago. That is the longest in more

The final piece of the Fed puzzle will be released today with the November retail sales report. This is a tricky one and it could disappoint because Thanksgiving and the Black Friday weekend were so late in November. Of course, that contrasts with a secular trend towards earlier Christmas shopping and discounting so the consensus

Fundamental Overview The USD continues to consolidate around the highs except against the commodity currencies where it’s been having the upper hand. The US inflation data last week was once again a disappointment although the data that feeds into the Core PCE was overall benign as forecasters expect a 0.13% M/M increase. Nonetheless, the Treasury

The main event in the European session was the UK employment report. The data was much better than expected, especially on the wage growth side, and the GBP got a boost from that. In terms of market pricing it shouldn’t change much as the BoE is widely expected to keep the Bank Rate unchanged this

Prior was -0.3% (revised down to -0.4%)Capacity utilization 76.8% vs 77.3% expectedManufacturing output +0.2% vs +0.5% expectedPrior output -0.5% (revised to -0.7%) This is three months in a row of declining output. The long end is picking up and has released the earlier selloff. This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

Prior month 0.4%CPI MoM 0.0% versus 0.1% estimateCore CPI MoM 0.1% versus 0.4% last monthCPI YoY 1.9% versus 2.0% YoY est. Prior month 2.0%CPI Median 2.6% versus 2.4% estimate. Last month 2.5% revised higher to 2.6%CPI Trim 2.7% versus 2.5% estimate. Last month 2.6% revised higher to 2.7%CPI Common 2.0% versus 2.2% last monthCPI BOC

New Zealand to issue more debt in 2024/25 The New Zealand Debt Management Office (NZDMO) statement. increased its bond issuance plans for the 2024/25 fiscal year by NZ$2 billionplans to issue NZ$40 billion worth of bonds in 2024/25, compared with NZ$38 billion forecasted in the Budget update in May This article was written by Eamonn

Prior -91.4Economic sentiment 15.7 vs 6.5 expectedPrior 7.4 German economic sentiment continues to worsen in December with the reading being the worst since May 2020. The only bright spot is that the outlook index is showing some improvement but that’s a contrast to what the Ifo reading is saying. And I’d be more inclined to

NZ median home prices -0.5% in November – REINZAdjust median house price +0.2% YoY in November This is according to the Real Estate Institute of New Zealand (REINZ). In other news from New Zealand, the minimum wage will increase by 1.5% from April 1. This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

It is rather puzzling when you try and quantify the move here with yields rising from 4.15% to 4.42% in just over a week. I mean, we’re still caught within the range seen after the US election for now. But as we move closer to 4.50%, the nerves might start to show up in broader

Prior 4.3%Employment change 173k vs 2k expectedPrior 219kAverage weekly earnings +5.2% vs +4.6% 3m/y expectedPrior +4.3%; revised to +4.4%Average weekly earnings (ex bonus) +5.2% vs +5.0% 3m/y expectedPrior +4.8%; revised to +4.9%November payrolls change -35kPrior -5k; revised to 24k The jobless rate is seen holding steady in October while the November payrolls change shows a

There is just one to take note of on the day, as highlighted in bold. That being for EUR/USD at the 1.0525 level. It coincides with the 200-hour moving average currently, also seen at 1.0525. And that has been a key near-term level in terms of limiting price movement since last week. As such, it

This comes after the meeting among top Chinese officials last week, via its central economic work conference. The economic target will be the same as this year, which China is largely expected to hit after Xi boasted about it earlier this month. Meanwhile, China is said to be planning a record budget deficit of 4%

Fundamental Overview The USD continues to consolidate around the highs except against the commodity currencies where it’s been having the upper hand. The US inflation data last week was once again a disappointment although the data that feeds into the Core PCE was overall benign as forecasters expect a 0.13% M/M increase. Nonetheless, the Treasury

Times below are in GMT/US Eastern time format. 0900/0400 Finland’s central bank and its chief, ECB policy maker Olli Rehn hold a press conference about monetary policy outlook and Finland’s economic forecast out of this list Rehn is most likely to have comments of note for traders 1000/0500 Introductory statement by ECB board member Claudia

BOC Macklem is speaking and says: In the future, the world is set to be more prone to shocks than we would all like.Big structural changes are already underway, such as deglobalization, demographic shifts, digitalization, and decarbonization.We need to work with our international partners to try and shape the future.We also need to improve our

Westpac–Melbourne Institute Consumer Sentiment Index for December 2024 falls 2% m/m to 92.8. For the y/y its +13% Westpac note the disappointing economic growth numbers released in early December as a factor for the m/m fall. — Earlier was the weekly data: Australian weekly consumer confidence survey falls to a 9 week low AUD/USD not

We need to be prepared for situation where EU could be faced with higher tariffsShould have more information about US trade policy decisions by next ECB meeting In other words, meaning after the next two policy meetings in January and March. As things stand, markets are expecting them to cut by 25 bps each in

Eurostoxx -0.3%Germany DAX -0.2%France CAC 40 -0.4%UK FTSE -0.7%Spain IBEX -0.7%Italy FTSE MIB -0.7% This continues the downside pressures from last week, as equities are not finding too much comfort in the run up to Christmas thus far. That said, tech shares were the exception with the Nasdaq rallying to a record high yesterday. However,

German DAX futures -0.2%UK FTSE futures -0.4% This largely continues the selling mood, even in Wall Street overnight. It continues to be a case of two tales at the moment as tech shares are dominating the scene, leaving behind everything else. The Dow ended with eight straight days of losses in Wall Street, while the

It’s a mess in Canadian politics at the moment. Today the government is going to attempt to present the Fall Economic Statement. It was supposed to be delivered by finance minister Chrystia Freeland but she quit this morning, delivering an unusually harsh resignation letter, in part due to a dispute with Prime Minister Justin Trudeau

FX option expiries for 17 December 10am New York cutChina must give firm, forceful response to the US ‘blatant interference’ in TaiwanKey measure of CEO confidence in China signals pessimism for the first time since pandemicPressure on Canada PM Trudeau to resign intensifies after caucus meetingNew Zealand is assessing if Vanuatu earthquake tsunami could affect

The speed and scale of rate cuts will be determined in each meetingIt will depend on the basis of incoming data and comprehensive analysisInflation is more clearly starting to stabilise at the 2% target We didn’t get one of these so far today. So, this should fill the quota. There’s nothing new here from Rehn

7.4 is substantial 30 km WNW of Port-Vila, Vanuatu Depth 28 km Awaiting any tsunami advice …OK, yep, tsunami warning issued ESMC map This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

The pair is down 0.4% today and erasing the advance from yesterday, moving back to test the August low of 0.6347. We’ve been here before with the low last week touching 0.6336 but ultimately, the daily and weekly close held. Will it be the same this time around? The pressure is definitely building. With China

Fundamental Overview Gold dropped back inside the previous range following some hotter than expected US inflation figures. In the bigger picture, the market’s pricing remains largely unchanged around three rate cuts by the end of 2025 but the rise in real yields is weighing on the market due to stronger growth and stickier inflation expectations.

China Foreign Minister: We hope new US administration will make the ‘right’ choices and work with china, eliminating disruptions and overcoming obstaclesChina must give a firm and forceful response to the US ‘blatant interference’ in China’s internal affairs on issues such as Taiwan No sign of warm and cosy relations between the US and the

Greg had this posted earlier on Monday: Over the weekend WSJ TImiraos said that although “investors expect a third in a row rate cut”, that officials of the Fed are also ready to slow or even stop, lowering rates after that. Referring to this from the Wall Street Journal ‘Fed watcher’. Unusually, the article is

Good morning, afternoon and evening all. Any charts, technical analysis, trade ideas, thoughts, views, ForexLive traders would like to share and discuss with fellow ForexLive traders, please do so: This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

Bloomberg (gated) carry the report showing a key measure of CEO confidence in China has turned pessimistic for the first time since the pandemic. The loss of confidence comes despite recent stimulus measures being announced. Bloomberg reported on a survey by the US-based Conference Board: sentiment among executives of mostly American and European companies fell

Standard Chartered is bullish US equities next year. Their reasoning includes: Trump’s election victory has boosted U.S. business confidence, driven by expectations of tax cuts, deregulation, and increased protectionism through tariffsprojects the US to outperform other major markets as business and consumer confidence rises under Trump’s administration Stan Chart note risks include Trump’s divisive policy

The pair has been quietly making waves since last week, as it continues the upside run upon breaking is 200-day moving average (blue line). The rally from 150.00 to just above 154.00 now also owes much to a surging rise in Treasury yields. 10-year yields have gone up from 4.15% to 4.40% during this period

Canadian political news, in the wake of the abrupt resignation of finance minister and deputy prime minister Chrystia Freeland on Monday. Via media report: Trudeau says he will take time to reflect on caucus concerns, sources say. At least seven Liberal MPs, including a former cabinet minister, publicly say Trudeau must resign. More at that

The price of WTI crude oil futures are settling at $70.71. That is down $0.58 or -0.81%. The high price reached 70 hours and $0.72. The low price was a $70.01 in what has been up and down trading today. The rising 100 hour moving average comes in at $69.94. It would take a move

People’s Bank of China USD/CNY reference rate is due around 0115 GMT. The People’s Bank of China (PBOC), China’s central bank, is responsible for setting the daily midpoint of the yuan (also known as renminbi or RMB). The PBOC follows a managed floating exchange rate system that allows the value of the yuan to fluctuate

The NDP, which is the Liberal de-facto coalition partner, is calling on Justin Trudeau to resign. “He has to resign,” he said, noting that “all options are on the table” regarding withholding the votes the government needs to survive. He was repeatedly asked if they would bring down the government but kept saying “all options

THe NZDUSD has seen up and down and up again price action today. The most recent move higher has seen the pair extend back above the high of a swing area floor on the daily chart at 0.5772 and also briefly above the 100-hour MA at 0.5780. Buyers are trying to make a play BUT

The USDCAD has moved lower after failing to sustain a break higher earlier today. Technically, the pair briefly pushed above the April 19, 2020 high at 1.4264, reaching a session high of 1.4270, but momentum quickly faded. The price rotated back below last week’s high at 1.4244 (Friday) and extended to a corrective low of

Scaramucci is the founder of investment firm SkyBridge Capital and long-time crypto bull. In an interview on Friday he forecast Bitcoin to USD 200K by the end of next year. Citing: wave of crypto-friendly policies and deregulation expected under the incoming Trump administration“The factors related to that are not me being exuberant, it’s just supply

ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence 83.9, a 9wk low fell 1.6pts from 85.5 (this was a 2.9 point fall from its previous week!) ANZ comment: despite the RBA signalling its comfort with the inflation outlook after its December meetingfall was driven by a 7.9pt fall in the ‘time to buy a major household item’ Deeply pessimistic

Canada’s Finance Dept is set to deliver the Fall Economic Statement today but with this morning’s resignation of Finance Minister Chrystia Freeland, it wasn’t clear who would deliver it. Now Radio-Canada reports that Dominic Leblanc, who is also the Minister of Public Safety, will take the job. That’s a strong sign that Trudeau doesn’t intend

Canada fiscal update Canada fiscal update sees 2023/24 deficit of C$61.9 billion vs C$40 billion expected in April, breaching fiscal anchor of maintaining 2023/24 deficit at or below $40.1 billion.Canada update: Projected 2023/24 deficit includes Indigenous contingent liabilities of C$16.4 billion and adjustments for COVID-19-related support.Canada update sees 2024/25 deficit of C$48.3 billion, 1.6% of

Singapore’s non-oil domestic exports (NODX) +14.7% m/m in November 2024 expected +8.0%, prior -7.5% +3.4% y/y expected -1.7%, prior -4.7% Recent Performance: September 2024: NODX increased by 2.7% year-on-year, supported by growth in both electronic and non-electronic products. This was a slowdown from the 10.7% rise in August and below the anticipated 9.3% increase. On

The GBP/USD and EUR/USD are both trading higher on the day, with GBP/USD outperforming. The GBP/USD is currently up by 0.52%, trading at 1.2618 after testing a low of 1.2615 earlier. Meanwhile, the EUR/USD is up by just 0.05%, recovering from its low of 1.0475 and currently trading at 1.0510. GBP/USD Analysis The GBP/USD has

There is one thing that everyone can agree on: China is cheap, at least the stock market is. But it’s cheap for a reason, economic growth is struggling and the market has lost faith in Beijing to offer the kind of stimulus that made it an economic miracle. That said, the biggest rallies often begin

Domestic sight deposits CHF 448.2 bn vs CHF 450.5 bn prior There was a slight drop in Swiss sight deposits in the past week but nothing out of the ordinary as the levels are holding as seen in recent months. This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

New Zealand Food Price Index for November 2024 is -0.1% prior was -0.9% The New Zealand Food Price Index (FPI) is a measure of the changes in the average price of food items sold in New Zealand. calculated and published monthly by Statistics New Zealandthe FPI tracks the prices of a basket of food items

ECBs Wunsche is on the wires saying: There is a relative consensus that rates need to go close to the neutral levelComforable with market easing expectations. This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

Will stabilise market expectationWill enhance stability of credit growthTo utilise a variety of monetary policy tools, cut interest rates and RRR when appropriateWill promote internationalisation of yuan in a prudent manner These are all just some token remarks. The main development in the Chinese yuan was the story from last week here. This article was

We should proceed with caution and remain data dependent.Price stability is within reach.Lowering policy rates gradually towards a neutral level is the most appropriate course of action.Once price stability has been restored, central banks can afford to tolerate moderate deviations of inflation from target, in both directionsIn the absence of such shocks, policy should be

Ford Stock Update: Key Highlights and Analyst Outlook for Investors Jefferies Downgrades Ford Stock to Underperform, Predicting Challenges in 2025 Ford stock faced a fresh downgrade today as Jefferies shifted its rating from Hold to Underperform and slashed its price target from $12 to $9. Analysts predict that 2025 will bring additional challenges for Ford

Bitcoin rises to get another new record. The high price has reached $107,144. It’s currently up around $2700 or 2.57%.Michael Saylor of Microstrategy is on CNBC pushing his Bitcoin strategy and projections (which quite frankly is beyond me) but let it be. He does parellel buying bitcoin to buying the island of Manhattan for $40M

The major European indices are closing mostly lower a snapshot of the closing levels shows: German DAX -0.45%France’s CAC -0.71%UK’s FTSE 100 -0.46%Spain’s Ibex +0.23%Italy’s FTSE MIB -0.43% Looking at the 10 year yields in the European markets: Germany, +0.7 basis points at 2.245%France -0.7 basis points at 3.044%UK +0.9 basis points or 4.443%Spain +1.5

Election is likely to occur on February 23, 2025. Polls have CDU in the lead. Scholz’s SPD party hopes to use the time to change the sentiment. The vote passed 394-207 with 116 abstentions Impact on Europe: Deepens a leadership crisis amid ongoing economic and security challenges.Key issues include:The war in Ukraine and tensions with

AI Pice Prediction Score for Gold Futures: +2 (Slightly Bullish). Gold futures price at time of prediction by AI 2678.7 Key Observations From the 240-Minute Chart: VWAP Alignment and Price Position: Today’s VWAP at 2672.7 aligns very closely with the previously naked VAL from December 9th (2672.4), reinforcing its role as strong support.The current price

As the North American session begins, the US futures for the US stock indices are trading higher after a mixed result last week. US yields are starting lower by about 2 to 3 basis points after 10 year yields moved up by 25 basis points last week. The USD is mixed to start the new

Prior 49.5Manufacturing PMI 45.2 vs 45.3 expectedPrior 45.2Composite PMI 49.5 vs 48.2 expectedPrior 48.3 It’s a contrasting picture again for the overall Eurozone economy, as the services sector is seen expanding once more while manufacturing continues to contract. On the latter, the main reading is unchanged to November but the output index is seen down

Rate cuts by year-end Fed: 24 bps (94% probability of rate cut at the upcoming meeting) 2025: 75 bps ECB 2025: 111 bps (86% probability of rate cut at the upcoming meeting) BoE: 4 bps (83% probability of no change at the upcoming meeting) 2025: 73 bps BoC 2025: 56 bps (63% probability of rate

Prior +0.9%HICP +1.5% vs +1.6% y/y prelimPrior +1.0% Slight delay in the release by the source. Core annual inflation did increase from 1.8% in October to 1.9% in November but compared to other major economies in the region, this is still on the lower side. This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

2024 has been a year of contradictory events, significant economic changes, and major political shifts. On a positive note, it was the year when global central banks finally managed to tackle inflation, partly induced by the negative and far-reaching effects of the COVID pandemic and partly by the more recent geopolitical events. After holding borrowing

Well, that’s the answer we will be getting today. But whatever the case is, it won’t be anything too pretty. And whatever the numbers are, another 25 bps rate cut by the ECB in January is pretty much confirmed. The euro is sitting marginally higher today but is still pinned down by some key near-term

The People’s Bank of China set the onshore yuan (CNY) reference rate for the trading session ahead. USD/CNY is the onshore yuan. Its permitted to trade plus or minus 2% from this daily reference rate.CNH is the offshore yuan. USD /CNH has no restrictions on its trading range.A significantly stronger or weaker rate than expected

The USDCAD is pushing higher, testing levels not seen since April 2020 at 1.4264. A break above this key resistance would open the door to the next target near the March 8, 2020 high at 1.4348. Since late September, the USDCAD has been trending steadily upward, starting from around 1.3425—a significant move that reinforces the

Will help ensure emerging technology will be developed in the USMasayoshi Son and Softbank Group to invest $100B in the US over 4-yearsConfidence level in the US is high The US stocks are showing gains with the S&P and the Nasdaq leading the way: Dow up 7.57 points or 0.02%S&P up 25.50 points or 0.43%

Prior 46.9Manufacturing PMI 41.9 vs 43.0 expectedPrior 43.1Composite PMI 46.7 vs 45.9 expectedPrior 45.9 It is a contrast as the services sector performed better than expected but the manufacturing sector was worse. That said, both remain in contraction territory and reaffirms a drop in overall business activity. Of note, the pace of decline in the

📈 Technology and Consumer Sectors Surge Today’s stock market showcases a striking performance in the tech sector, with significant gains led by Google (GOOGL) and Amazon (AMZN). This upbeat momentum is reflected across several market segments as investors respond positively to the latest industry developments. Technology Sector: 🚀 Tech Giants Lead the Charge Google (GOOGL):

Stanford University’s Future of Digital Currency Initiative (FDCI) and Eliza Labs, creators of the open-source Eliza agent framework, today announced a groundbreaking research partnership to explore how autonomous AI agents will transform digital currency systems. The collaboration, set to begin in Q1 2025, brings together Stanford’s expertise in digital currency research with Eliza Labs’ cutting-edge

Australia Judo Bank / S&P Global data. For December 2024. Preliminary / Flash Australia Manufacturing PMI: 48.2 November was 49.4December’s 48.2 is a 2- month low. Flash / Preliminary Services PMI 50.4, a 5-month low November was 50.5). Flash / Preliminary Australia PMI Composite, 3-month low November was 50.2, 3-month low In brief, the main

In a celebration of innovation, Forbes Web3 proudly showcases the community members who hold the Forbes Legacy Pass in its December 2024/January 2025 issue. The Forbes Legacy Pass is more than a membership- it’s a transformative experience bringing together a cohort of global entrepreneurs, founders, and creators. It grants members exclusive access to global Forbes

Prior was 56.1Composite PMI rises to 56.6 vs 54.9 prior (33-month high)Services PMI jumps to 58.5 vs 56.1 prior (38-month high)Manufacturing PMI falls to 48.3 vs 49.7 prior (3-month low) On inflation: Overall price pressures cooled furtherbut manufacturing saw a spike in input costs to 2-year highsService sector inflation at 4.5 year lowSupplier delivery times

Deputy Prime Minister and Finance Minister Chrystia Freeland has resigned. She was once thought of as the future of the party but she’s tied herself too closely to Trudeau, who has now evidently cut her loose in an attempt to save his political life. The Liberals are evidently trying to get Mark Carney to come

Prior was +31.2 This is quite a drop from 31.2 but that’s looking like it was a big outlier, perhaps related to the election. The good news for the Fed here is that pricing indications are declining the bad news is that new orders are at a six-month low. Another notable rise is in inventories,

Summary 📉 AUD/USD Support and Resistance Levels: The AUDUSD pair retested key support levels between 0.6334 and 0.6363 last week and bounced. Today, the price returned to that area on the daily chart. If the price can break below the low of that swing area, it opens the door for more selling with 0.62698 to

There are just a couple to take note of on the day, as highlighted in bold. They are relatively large ones and are all for EUR/USD layered through 1.0500 to 1.0550. Similar to what we saw at the end of last week, the ones at the figure level are likely to help keep things anchored

The Chinese data due Monday will be of the most focus. The ‘economic activity’ data include key indicators retail sales, industrial production and fixed asset investment. We get the November numbers today at 0200 GMT, which is 2100 US Eastern time (Sunday evening). In October 2024, China’s key economic indicators presented a mixed picture: Retail

German DAX futures flatFrench CAC 40 futures -0.2%UK FTSE futures -0.1% S&P 500 futures are flat, so there’s not too much to work with as we look to start the session. All eyes will be on the PMI data coming up later to see what that has to offer to start the week. Otherwise, it’ll

Oil Price Prediction Score: -3 (Moderately Bearish) Key Observations From the 240-Minute Chart (Crude Oil Futures): Oil Price Below Key Levels: The current oil price at $70.43 is trading below:Today’s Value Area Low (VAL) at $70.60.Friday’s VAL at $70.57.Thursday’s POC at $70.40.Oil prices below these key levels suggest sellers remain in control, reflecting bearish sentiment.

Bitcoin Price Prediction for Bitcoin Futures (December 2024 Contract) Prediction Score: -2 (Slightly Bearish with Caution) Key Observations From the 240-Minute Chart: Bitcoin Price Rejected at Key Resistance Levels: The current Bitcoin price at $104,330 failed to hold above the previously naked POC at $104,500 and the VAH at $104,790 (both from 7 days ago).This

The past bias of keeping rates sufficiently restrictive is no longer warrantedWe are close to achieving our targetInflation momentum in services sector has dropped recentlyEurozone growth likely to take a hit from fresh US protectionist measures This just continues the same commentary after their policy meeting last week. With traders already pricing in ~93% of

Services PMI 51.4 vs 51.0 expected and 50.8 prior.Manufacturing PMI 47.3 vs 48.2 expected and 48.0 prior.Composite PMI 50.5 vs 50.7 expected and 50.5 prior. Key Findings: Flash UK PMI Composite Output Index(1) : 50.5 (Nov: 50.5). Unchanged. Flash UK Services PMI Business Activity Index (2) : 51.4 (Nov: 50.4). 2-month high. Flash UK Manufacturing

As is usual for a Monday morning, market liquidity is very thin until it improves as more Asian centres come online … prices are liable to swing around, so take care out there. Indicative rates, not too much change since late Friday: EUR/USD 1.0496USD/JPY 153.66GBP/USD 1.2616USD/CHF 0.8927USD/CAD 1.4234AUD/USD 0.6364NZD/USD 0.5763 This article was written by

Fundamental Overview The USD continues to consolidate around the highs except against the commodity currencies where it extended into new highs. The US inflation data last week was once again a disappointment although the data that feeds into the Core PCE was overall benign as forecasters expect a 0.13% M/M increase. Nonetheless, the Treasury yields

Good morning, afternoon and evening all. Any charts, technical analysis, trade ideas, thoughts, views, ForexLive traders would like to share and discuss with fellow ForexLive traders, please do so: This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

Manufacturing PMI 42.5 vs 43.1 expected and 43.0 prior.Services PMI 51.0 vs 49.3 expected and 49.3 prior.Composite PMI 47.8 vs 47.5 expected and 47.2 prior. Key findings: HCOB Flash Germany Composite PMI Output Index(1) at 47.8 (Nov: 47.2). 2-month high. HCOB Flash Germany Services PMI Business Activity Index(2) at 51.0 (Nov: 49.3). 2-month high. HCOB

A gradual, step-by-step approach through 25 bps rate reductions is the most prudent strategyA more aggressive monetary easing would require a dramatic shift in conditions to justify itEurope’s economic malaise is largely structural and demands solutions that extend beyond the remit of monetary policy It’s been a while since they took a jab at lawmakers

Japan Tertiary Industry Activity Index October 2024: +0.3%m/m (vs. exp -0.1%, prior -0.2%)European Central Bank President Lagarde speaking Monday, de Guindos and Schnabel tooReturn of the Mack – BOC Governor Macklem speaking on MondayProperty investment in China fell 10.4% y/y in the first eleven months of 2024China’s stats bureau says domestic demand remains insufficientChina November:

Summary of RBA Board Changes New Appointments: Marnie Baker, CEO of Bendigo Bank, and Renee Fry-McKibbin, ANU economics professor, have been appointed to the Reserve Bank’s new monetary board for five-year terms starting in March 2025. Restructured RBA Board: The RBA will split into two boards:Monetary Board: Controls interest rates.Governance Board: Manages central bank operations.Existing

Home starts from the CMHC: October starts revised to 242.2KNovember starts 262.4K There is some variance in these numbers and the six-month average is flat at 243K. The pipeline in Canadian home construction near Toronto is drying up but Montreal starts were up 22% and are up 143% y/y. This article was written by Adam

Today is the Flash PMIs Day for Eurozone, UK and US. The market’s pricing might not change much but they will still be market moving releases. Here are the expectations: Eurozone Manufacturing PMI: 45.3 expected vs. 45.2 prior.Eurozone Services PMI: 49.5 expected vs. 49.5 prior.UK Manufacturing PMI: 48.2 expected vs. 48.0 prior.UK Services PMI: 51.0

People’s Bank of China USD/CNY reference rate is due around 0115 GMT. The People’s Bank of China (PBOC), China’s central bank, is responsible for setting the daily midpoint of the yuan (also known as renminbi or RMB). The PBOC follows a managed floating exchange rate system that allows the value of the yuan to fluctuate

Headlines: Major central banks the main focus in the week aheadWeekly update on interest rate expectationsFrance December flash services PMI 48.2 vs 46.7 expectedGermany December flash manufacturing PMI 42.5 vs 43.1 expectedEurozone December flash services PMI 51.4 vs 49.5 expectedUK December flash services PMI 51.4 vs 51.0 expectedECB’s Lagarde: We can cut rates further if

China House Prices in November -5.7% y/y (prior -5.9%)-0.1% m/m (prior -0.5%) The black hole of Chinese home prices has not yet ended. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

As major cryptocurrencies like Solana and Toncoin hit a pause, the spotlight turns to an emerging player in the digital asset space. Cybro is set to make its debut on the exchange, generating buzz with staggering projections. This unexpected contender is capturing the attention of investors keen to uncover the potential behind this dramatic forecast.