A few equity indexes are starting to look like this chart, from 2007. Back then the problems in US housing were starting to mount and in July/August we got a sharp selloff in stocks, including 7% in the S&P 500. Then, it recovered to touch a marginal new record high that autumn, and ultimately the […]

NHC says increasing risk of life-threatening storm surge and hurricane-force winds along the Louisiana and upper Texas coasts by mid-week. This article was written by Arno V Venter at www.forexlive.com.

NHC says disturbance expected to become a tropical storm later today, risk of life-threatening storm surge and hurricane-force winds along the Louisiana and upper Texas coasts by mid-week.NHC says risk of life-threatening storm surge and hurricane-force winds along the Louisiana and upper Texas coasts by mid-week. This article was written by Arno V Venter at

Jim Reid at Deutschebank makes a great point in a note today. He illustrates that US unemployment has risen to 4.2% from 3.4% almost entirely due to people entering or re-entering the labor force. Then goes on to warn that it can quickly change to something problematic. A look at the past 13 recessions shows

U.S. Equity Strategy: BofA Global Research cuts energy sector to market weight from overweight. This article was written by Arno V Venter at www.forexlive.com.

Swedish housing price: 47% vs 43% prior Swedish housing price increase: 58% vs 55% prior Swedish housing price decrease: 11% vs 12% prior This article was written by Arno V Venter at www.forexlive.com.

The USD/CHF is trending higher today after hitting its lowest level of 2024 on Friday, followed by a strong rebound. The price action has seen the pair move above the 100-hour moving average at 0.8464 and the 200-hour moving average at 0.8470. Staying above these levels would give buyers some control, at least in the

Markets are attempting to make a bit of a recovery in risk following Friday’s NFP. However, it seems like markets have a lot to digest right now, and even though the data should have been enough to convince markets that 50bp cuts are not necessary (in my opinion at least), money markets are sticking to

Russian forces attacked energy facilities in 7 regions in the past day, Ukraine’s Energy Ministry says. This article was written by Arno V Venter at www.forexlive.com.

Japan LDP’s Takaichi: Japan’s inflation, when excluding external factors, still weak.Japan LDP’s Takaichi: Cannot say Japan has stably achieved BOJ’s 2% inflation target. Follows on from earlier comments from Takaichi earlier in the session. This article was written by Arno V Venter at www.forexlive.com.

S&P Global expects OPEC+ to start oil output increases next year This’ll be the first time in a couple of years. Reuters rep[orting on comments from Jim Burkhard, vice president of research at S&P Global Commodity Insights. He was speaking at the APPEC conference: “There’s a lot of pressure in some of these countries to

The CAD is the strongest (closely followed by the USD) and the JPY is the weakest as the North American session begins. Stocks are higher and yields are also higher, reversing some of the declines from Friday (last week). It is the day after the US jobs report which showed a gain of 114K jobs

China’s Xi urges stronger ties and fair business environment with SpainGerman Finance Minister backs Draghi’s growth focus but not joint EU borrowingSentiment continues to improve through the sessionDraghi urges EU to boost spending by €750B and calls for joint debt issuanceChina seeks public input on carbon trading plan for cement steel and aluminium sectorsNHC warns

EU Sentix Index: -15.4 vs 12.5 expected This article was written by Arno V Venter at www.forexlive.com.

Dutch Economic Affairs Ministry will have to study Draghi report.Dutch Economic Affairs Ministry says extra public investments should not be an end in itself.Dutch Economic Affairs Ministry says agrees with Draghi on reducing regulatory burden. This article was written by Arno V Venter at www.forexlive.com.

Mario Draghi: The EU must spend an additional €750B/year to compete globally. Mario Draghi calls for the EU to move towards regular joint debt issuance. This article was written by Arno V Venter at www.forexlive.com.

The major US stock indices are off to a solid start to the trading week after the declines last week. The NASDAQ index tumbled -5.77% which was at a worst trading week since January 2022. The S&P index fell -4.25% it was the week since March 2023. They Dow industrial average fell -2.93% which was

Friday employment day in the US, led to volatile up and down price action in the major currency pairs. Today, the USD is trading higher (EURUSD and GBPUSD are lower while the USDJPY is higher) but the greenback is coming off highs. In this video, I look at the technicals that are driving those 3

JP Morgan’s Chief US Economist Michael Feroli on the US consumer: slower income growth could prove a headwind to consumer spending growththis has been the engine powering the economy in recent quarterspolicy is restrictive downside employment risks are growing upside inflation risks are ebbing Recommends a 50bp Fed Funds rate cut: we still think cutting

China’s Finance Ministry: Will issue up to 2 bln euros of euro sovereign bonds in Paris on Sept 23. This article was written by Arno V Venter at www.forexlive.com.

Japan ruling LDP lawmaker Takaichi: Strategic deployment of fiscal spending will increase jobs, household income, and boost tax revenue without raising tax rate. This article was written by Arno V Venter at www.forexlive.com.

German Finance Minister Lindner on Draghi report: We need to work on mobilizing the growth forces of the private sector.German Finance Minister Lindner on Draghi report: Welcome all of Mr. Draghi’s proposals that point in this direction.German Finance Minister Lindner on Draghi report: However, joint borrowing by the EU will not solve the structural problems.

As it’s usually the case for Mondays, we have a pretty empty calendar today. We’ll just get the NY Fed Consumer Inflation Expectations in the American session but that’s not a market moving event, and in any case not only the data normalised to pre-pandemic levels but the Fed is not even focused on inflation

Today’s FX option expiries via Newsquawk: This article was written by Arno V Venter at www.forexlive.com.

CBS had this news, of geopolitical concern. In summary: Two NATO members, Romania and Latvia, reported Russian drones violating their airspace.A drone entered Romania early Sunday during Russian attacks on Ukrainian civilian targets and port infrastructure near the Danube.In Latvia, a Russian drone crashed near the town of Rezekne, possibly straying from Belarus, the day

Fundamental Overview The USDCHF pair eventually dropped to a new low as a series of soft US data pushed Treasury yields lower giving the CHF a boost. The NFP report on Friday wasn’t bad, on the contrary, the data under the hood was better than the prior month. Nevertheless, the trend in the labour market

Fundamental Overview The USD last week came under some more pressure as a series of soft US data pushed Treasury yields lower. The NFP report on Friday wasn’t bad though, on the contrary, the data under the hood was better than the prior month. That helped the greenback to erase the weekly losses. Nevertheless, the

APPEC-Trafigura exec says oil market is more concerned about foreign policies under next US president.APPEC-Trafigura exec says no secret Trump is not a fan of Iran.APPEC-Trafigura exec says oil market likely to be more volatile if Trump was to become president.APPEC-Trafigura exec says shadow fleet still moves large amounts of Russian oil, while Iranian oil

China’s Xi meets with Spanish Prime Minister in Beijing – Chinese state media.China’s President Xi, in talks with Prime Minister of Spain: China and Spain should build long-term and stable relationship full of strategic determination, and push bilateral relations to a higher level – state media.China’s President Xi: Hopes Spain will continue to pay interest

The calendar is extremely light on the first trading day of the new week. EU Session: The only data point that is remotely noticeable is the EU Sentix Index, but unlikely to get any attention from markets. US Session: For the US session we have employment trends and consumer credit. For the macro focused traders

China’s consumer inflation picked up but was below expectations … limp demandOil prices up since opening for the week – potential hurricane getting narrative loveChina August 2024 CPI +0.6% y/y (expected +0.7%)PBOC sets USD/ CNY reference rate for today at 7.0989 (vs. estimate at 7.0951)Japan chief cabinet secretary Hayashi cites BOJ’s Ueda saying more rate

China’s Ministry of Ecology and Environment: Solicits public opinion on work plan for national carbon emission trading market covering cement, iron and steel, electrolytic aluminium sectors. This article was written by Arno V Venter at www.forexlive.com.

Russian military to join China’s drills in sea and airspace in Sea of Japan and Sea of Okhotsk in September – Xinhua. This article was written by Arno V Venter at www.forexlive.com.

Japan economy watchers poll: 49.0 vs 47.5 prior This article was written by Arno V Venter at www.forexlive.com.

BofA Global Research expects U.S. Federal Reserve to deliver 25bps rate cut in each meeting starting September 2024, slowing to 25bps per quarter in March 2025. This follows on from the earlier post by Eamonn about Goldman who also thinks a 25bp is now the more likely size of the September cut. In my view

Japan govt to back former top FX diplomat Masato Kanda as candidate for next ADB President – Yomiuri. This article was written by Arno V Venter at www.forexlive.com.

NHC says disturbance expected to become a strengthening tropical storm today, increasing risk of life-threatening storm surge and hurricane-force winds along the Louisiana and upper Texas coasts by mid-week. This article was written by Arno V Venter at www.forexlive.com.

ECB: 100% probability of a 25bp cut Fed: 100% probability of a 25bp cut BoE: 80% probability of a hold (20% chance of a cut) BoJ: 99% probability of a hold (1% chance of a cut) RBA: 92% probability of a hold (8% chance of a cut) SNB: 100% probability of a cut Out of

The advance reading is here: Japan Q2 GDP +0.8% q/q (vs. +0.5% expected) The updated result has trimmed growth back a little: Buried in the details is a little further discouragement. The contribution from domestic demand was trimmed to +0.8%q/q vs. the +0.9% in the preliminary release: private consumption similarly trimmed, +0.9% q/q vs. +1.0%

RBC has been looking for a rate cut from the Reserve Bank of Australia at the May 2025 meeting, citing: inflation in Australia remaining elevated, above RBA targetslower growth not a reason for the RBA to cut this yearRBA didn’t hike as much as the Fed or ECB so the RBA easing path is going

Greece to raise 8 billion to 10 billion euros from bond markets in 2025, sources say.Greece will pay ahead of schedule 8 billion euros of first bailout loans in December, say sources.Greece to continue early repayments of first bailout loans in 2025, sources say. This article was written by Arno V Venter at www.forexlive.com.

Swiss sight deposits of domestic banks at 447.258 bln SFR in week ending September 6 versus 448.564 bln SFR a week earlier.Swiss total sight deposits at 455.903 bln SFR in week ending September 6 versus 456.724 bln SFR a week earlier. This article was written by Arno V Venter at www.forexlive.com.

The People’s Bank of China set the onshore yuan (CNY) reference rate for the trading session ahead. USD/CNY is the onshore yuan. Its permitted to trade plus or minus 2% from this daily reference rate.CNH is the offshore yuan. USD /CNH has no restrictions on its trading range.A significantly stronger or weaker rate than expected

It’s a quiet day on Monday in terms of scheduled economic events, which is typical for the week following the release of the U.S. NFP data. On Tuesday, attention will shift to Australia with the release of the Westpac consumer sentiment and NAB business confidence data. In the U.K., key labor market data will be

As is usual for a Monday morning, market liquidity is very thin until it improves as more Asian centres come online … prices are liable to swing around, so take care out there. Indicative rates, little change from late Friday: EUR/USD 1.1084USD/JPY 142.34GBP/USD 1.3124USD/CHF 0.8439USD/CAD 1.3576AUD/USD 0.6668NZD/USD 0.6176 This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan

China Auto Industry Body CPCA: China sold 1.92 mln passenger cars in Aug, down 1.1% y/y. This article was written by Arno V Venter at www.forexlive.com.

German domestic intelligence agency warns against Russian cyber group of GRU Unit 29155.German domestic intelligence agency says group carried out cyber attacks, other reconnaissance against targets in NATO and EU countries. This article was written by Arno V Venter at www.forexlive.com.

An update from the US National Hurricane Center (NHC), on potential Tropical Cyclone Six: The system in the Gulf of Mexico is forecast to become a hurricane before it reaches the northwestern US Gulf CoastSystem in Gulf of Mexico is expected to become a tropical storm on Monday, with more significant intensification forecast to occur

Good morning, afternoon and evening all. Any charts, technical analysis, trade ideas, thoughts, views, ForexLive traders would like to share and discuss with fellow ForexLive traders, please do so: This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

APPEC-Goldman Sachs says OPEC will go ahead in next few quarters (not Q4) with gradual and moderate production increases.APPEC-Goldman Sachs says 7 million BPD of financial demand was lost over the last two months, with positioning at an all-time low. WTI is currently trading just below $69. With oil prices continuing to fall it seems

North Korea state medai, KCNA report on Chinese President Xi Jinping and Russian President Vladimir Putin sent greetings to North Korean leader Kim Jong Un. On the occasion of North Korea’s founding anniversaryPutin: “I am sure that the comprehensive strategic partnership between Russia and the DPRK will be strengthened in a planned way thanks to

Japan Chief Cabinet Secretary Hayashi Monetary policy should be considered, judged by BOJ, when asked about market expectations of further rate hikes by BOJI remember BOJ governor Ueda has already said, with some conditions, BOJ is ready to go in that direction If economic situation requires stimulus, I would prefer increasing expenditure, payouts rather than

Info comes via the monthly Report on Jobs, produced by the Recruitment and Employment Confederation and KPMG in the UK. survey reported a significant slowdown in the labour market in Augustjob placements declining sharply – permanent job placements dropped at their fastest rate in five monthswage growth easing – wage growth for new permanent employees

BlackRock’s Jeffrey Rosenberg spoke with Bloomberg TV (gated) in response to Friday’s August jobs report. He made a cautionary note on the upcoming meeting. Rosenberg expressed concern should the Federal Reserve choose to cut the Fed Funds rate by 50bp: that might signal that the FOMC has worries over the state of the economya 25bp

People’s Bank of China USD/CNY reference rate is due around 0115 GMT. The People’s Bank of China (PBOC), China’s central bank, is responsible for setting the daily midpoint of the yuan (also known as renminbi or RMB). The PBOC follows a managed floating exchange rate system that allows the value of the yuan to fluctuate

Analysts at Bank of America see a huge flip to dovish for the US Federal Reserve and the Bank of Canada: Forecast a 25bp rate cut at the next five Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: September 17-18, 2024 November 6-7, 2024 December 17-18, 2024January/February 31-1, 2025March 21-22, 2025 And, for the Bank of Canada:

US Secretary of the Treasury Janet Yellen spoke over the weekend at on Saturday at the Texas Tribune Festival. Bloomberg (gated) summarised her comments: “For the US, the kinds of metrics that we would monitor that would summarize risks — whether it’s asset valuations or a good degree of leverage — things look good, I

The Chinese inflation data are the focus of the data agenda. The y/y CPI is expected to have increased from July. If the 0.7% consensus median is hit it’ll be the fastest rate of increase since February this year, which counts as progress for China. On Friday ex-PBOC Governor Yi Gang emphasised the importance of

On Sunday China’s ‘state planer’, the National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC), issued a joint statement with the Ministry of Commerce (MOC). In a nutshell, the bombshell announcement is of the complete removal of restrictions on foreign investment in the manufacturing sector. This will happen on November 1, in the form of the release of

Mon: Apple iPhone Event; Japanese GDP Revised (Q2),Chinese CPI (Aug), EZ Sentix Index (Sep), US Employment Trends (Aug)Tue: EIA STEO, OPEC MOMR; Australian Business Confidence (Aug), German Final CPI (Aug),UK Unemployment/Wages (Jul), Swedish GDP (Jul), Norwegian CPI (Aug), US NFIB (Aug), Chinese Trade Balance, M2 & New Yuan Loans (Aug)Wed: UK GDP Estimate (Jul), US

China’s central bank didn’t report any gold purchases in August, saying that reserves remain at 72.80 million troy ounces. Reported buying halted in May after many months of accumulation. Reports afterwards suggested the PBOC had grown price sensitive. in February the PBOC bought 390,000 ounces in March, 160,000in April, 60,000 A few things: Buying tapered

UPCOMING EVENTS: Monday: China CPI.Tuesday: UK Labour Market report, US NFIB Business Optimism Index.Wednesday: UK GDP, US CPI.Thursday: Japan PPI, ECB Policy Decision, US PPI, US Jobless Claims.Friday: New Zealand Manufacturing PMI, US University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment. Monday The Chinese CPI Y/Y is expected at 0.7% vs. 0.5% prior, while the M/M measure is

On Friday, shares of Nvidia fell 4% and chipmakers dragged the Nasdaq to its lowest in the three weeks. One reason for the sell-off was a Goldman Sachs note from Peter Oppenheimer arguing that traffic to ChatGPT was plunging. Goldman published this chart, which was later widely circulated (including in the Financial Times). It showed

The good news is that the garrulous Federal Reserve speakers will be restrained over the next fortnight, the bad news is that the talk and speculation about the FOMC won’t stop. It looks like we’ve heard the final word from the FOMC and the backout starts at midnight ET. We’re left with a market pricing

US August non-farm payrolls +142K vs +160K expectedCanada August employment change +22.1 versus +25.0K estimateFOMC Waller : Time has come to begin reducing. Labor market softening/not deterioratingWaller Q&A: Forecasts could be wrong, must be nimble as data comes inFed’s Goolsbee: Critical challenge is not letting things turn into something worseFed’s Williams: Unemployment rate still low

WTI crude is still clinging to support but the picture is looking increasingly dire for brent. The global benchmark closed today at the lowest since December 2021. There have been a series of daily lows right around these levels and there are intraday lows that are worse since 2021 but this is the lowest daily

None of how the market is acting today in reaction to the lack of a strong 50 basis point signal from Waller should be a surprise. Here is what I wrote back in June: It’s been awhile since we’ve had a ‘normal’ rate cutting cycle so it’s worth a reminder about what happens and what

This looks like a double top in the S&P 500 and now you have to ask if we will go down and test the August low or consolidate here. The chipmakers certainly aren’t sending a great signal with NVDA down to $102. On the day: S&P 500 -1.7%Nasdaq Comp -2.5%DJIA -1.0%Russell 2000 -1.7%Toronto TSX Comp

There aren’t many charts more technical than bitcoin and with today’s 4.5% decline, it’s sending all the wrong signals. It’s only been below these levels for a few hours over the past six months and the last time it was here it was flushed down to $50,000 in something of a flash crash. At the

The USDJPY has seen up and down volatility after the US jobs report and subsequent market volatility. The tumble in US stocks and move lower in yields may have an influence as well as sellers pushed the price lower. Technically however, the low price today at 141.75, 10 apex of the low price from August

Prior -€6.09 billion; revised to -€5.98 billion The French trade deficit more or less held steady on the month, with exports falling by 3.3% and imports falling by 3.1% in July. This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

It’s been a ride today between a mixed non-farm payrolls report and Fed commentary. With the cards now all on the table, the market is shifting away from 50 basis points. Odds are down to 23% from as high as 57% in the immediate aftermath of the jobs report. At the same time, there are

WSJ Nick Timiraos is out with his view of the Waller comments in a tweet: This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

There is an undercurrent in economic circles right now and it basically boils down to: The Fed should cut 50 bps but it will probably cut 25 bps. Rick Rieder from BlackRock was on Bloomberg earlier today making that point and CIBC touches on it in their review of the non-farm payrolls report, which they

Some of the increase in unemployment reflects a cool-down in the labor market from an overheated stateThe labor market is now roughly in balance and therefore unlikely to be a source of inflationary pressures going forwardIs ready to start the process of rate cutsMonetary policy can be moved to a more neutral stance depending on

The People’s Bank of China set the onshore yuan (CNY) reference rate for the trading session ahead. USD/CNY is the onshore yuan. Its permitted to trade plus or minus 2% from this daily reference rate.CNH is the offshore yuan. USD /CNH has no restrictions on its trading range.A significantly stronger or weaker rate than expected

Both the US and Canadian jobs report will released today. In the US, the market is breathing a little sigh of relief in that the numbers weren’t as weak as last month. The unemployment rate did tick down to 4.2% from 4.3%. In Canada, the unemployment rate moved higher 26.6% which was a highest level

ADP August employment +99K vs +145K expectedUS August ISM services 51.5 vs 51.1 expectedUS August final S&P Global Services PMI Aug 55.7 vs 55.2 prelimUS initial jobless claims 227K vs 230K estimateUS Q2 unit labor costs +0.4% vs +0.8% expectedOPEC+ agrees to delay October oil output increase – reportGOP nominee Trump to propose a 15%

At 8:45 am ET, we will hear from NY Fed President John Williams and then at 11 am ET, we will hear from Fed Governor Chris Waller. Those are two heavyweights at the Fed and they were no-doubt scheduled to give the market a nudge on the FOMC’s thinking ahead of the Sept 18 meeting.

The oil market hasn’t spent much time under $70 in the post-pandemic period but after five days of heavy selling, it’s now at $67.29, which is the lowest since June of 2023. Last year we saw several dips down into this range that were all bought, including two intraday falls below $65. The low close

Critical challenge is: Not letting things turn into something worseIf you look at the Beige Book, you can’t look at it as exciting, if anything it was a fair bit downbeatIt suggests there are warning signs on the economyYou only want rates to be this high as long as you have toWe will get a

Feds Waller is speaking and says: Believe maintaining the economy’s forward momentum means time has come to begin reducing policy rate at upcoming meeting Data in past three days indicates labor market is softening but not deteriorating; this judgment important to upcoming policy decision It is likely a series of reductions in policy rate will

The ‘blackout’ policy from the Federal Reserve limits the extent to which Federal Open Market Committee participants and staff can speak publicly or grant interviews. The period begins the two Saturdays preceding a Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting and ends the Thursday following the decision (decisions are always on Wednesdays). NY Fed president Williams

The Australian dollar chart has caught my attention today as it falls 76 pips, or 1.1%. It’s the underperformer today as the US dollar strengthens broadly and risk trades are beaten up. A week ago, it looked like it could be breaking out as it touched the highest since January but the market is having

USD/JPY is on the move to start the day, down another 0.5% to 142.70 currently. The pair is trickling lower, vying for a stronger technical breakdown as yields are also pressured lower on the week. That follows from the mix of US data yesterday. Besides that, the dollar is sitting in narrower ranges against the

Headlines: USD/JPY extends fall alongside bond yields to start the sessionRisk on the retreat as bond yields fallPreview: Why August non-farm payrolls frequently disappointWhat would it take from non-farm payrolls to get a 50 basis point cut?We’ve seen the flop and the turn, it is now on to the riverWhat are the distribution of forecasts

The USDCAD has moved to a new high and reach the next technical target at 1.35535 (see, mom months absent concepts and). THe price has not been above that moving average since August 7 nearly one month ago. A break above that level would have traders looking toward its 200-day moving average of 1.35880. Earlier

This update from FedWatch heading into the NFP report later today. The NFP data is due at 8.30 am US Eastern time (1230 pm GMT). Earlier posts: Goldman Sachs on what its gonna take from NFP for a 50bp interest rate cut from the FOMCOptions are pricing in big stock swings on NFP FridayPreview: Why

More to come, I’ll update live. This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

The NZDUSD has moved higher. It is now moving lower in volatile trading as it digests the US jobs report and comments from Fed officials this morning including Feds Waller, Feds Goolsby, and Feds Williams. Stocks are moving lower which is leading to some risk off in the NZDUSD as well. Technically, the pair is

New York Fed Pres. Williams is answering reporters questions after his speech at the New York economics club and says: Not ready to say how big first rate cut should beit’s clear labor market imbalances have eased.Jobs market more consistent with pre-pandemic environment.Clear rates should fall, but pace, destination last clear The initial reaction was

As the market digests the US jobs report, the stock market is casting its vote. The major indices were much lower in premarket ahead of the jobs report. Since then, all of those declines have been retraced. The major indices are opening marginally higher. The NASDAQ was down over -200 points in premarket trading. So

The data from earlier is here: Japan data – July household spending +0.1% y/y (expected +1.2%)Consumer spending +0.1% in July y/y compared with the median market forecast for 1.2%month-on-month saw it slump 1.7% against the -0.2% expected Admittedly other data points are more encouraging for the Bank of Japan, notable wages from earlier this week:’

Former People’s Bank of China Governor Yi Gang Overall China has weak domestic demand, especially on consumption and investment sideHopes in near future china’s GDP deflator will turn slightly positiveHopes producer price industry will improve to about zero by the end of this yearShould go back to proactive fiscal policy in China and accommodative monetary

The US jobs report was a bit weaker than expectations especially when you consider the -86,000 revision to the prior month’s. Nonfarm payroll rose by 142K lower than the 161K estimate but the unemployment rate did fall to 4.2% from 4.3%. The USD dollar had an up-and-down reaction sending the three major currency pairs to

Fundamental Overview Gold has been rallying steadily this week since bouncing from the bottom of the recent range. The soft US Job Openings on Wednesday gave it the tailwind to push into the key resistance around the 2530 level. This move has been driven by falling real yields as the softer US data caused the

Prior was +114K Details of the August 2024 jobs report: Two-month net revision: -86K versus -29K priorUnemployment rate: 4.2% versus 4.2% expected (prior was 4.3%)Unrounded unemployment rate: 4.220% vs 4.252% priorParticipation rate: 62.7% versus 62.7% priorPrivate payrolls +118K vs +139K expectedPrior private payrolls 97K (revised to 74K)U6 underemployment rate: 7.9% versus 7.8% priorAverage hourly earnings:

The market has taken a long look at the August non-farm payrolls and decided it’s not weak enough to pricing in a 50 basis point Fed cut this month. Initially, the softer headline number and downward revision caused a spike in 50 bps odds to 57% and a drop in the US dollar, however that

Prior was 57.6Non-seasonally adjusted vs 55.3 prior This is a low-level indicator. It’s a poor reading but it’s very volatile and rarely offers a useful signal for the Canadian economy. This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

The NFP is at 1230 GMT / 0830 US Eastern time: Goldman Sachs on what its gonna take from NFP for a 50bp interest rate cut from the FOMCWhat would it take from non-farm payrolls to get a 50 basis point cut?Preview: Why August non-farm payrolls frequently disappointWhat would it take from non-farm payrolls to

Overall for the week, the USDCHF is little changed with highs on Monday and Tuesday and the low for the week reached today on the US jobs volatility. After trading to a new low for the week (and a new low for the year too), the price of the USDCHF has snapped back higher with

The JPY is the strongest and the AUD is the weakest as the North American session begins. The USD is mixed ahead of the US (and Canada) jobs report(s). The US stocks are not looking good ahead of the report after Broadcom earnings failed to impress after the close yesterday. It’s shares are down -7.6%.

Reuters with the info from Citi following the OPEc announcement earlier: “We see the OPEC+ unwind delay and ongoing geopolitics and financial positioning providing price support at $70-72 Brent”We recommend selling on a bounce toward $80 Brent, as we look ahead to moves down to the $60 range in 2025 as a sizeable market surplus

Prior month -2.8K Employment change 22.1K vs 25.0 K estimateUnemployment rate 6.6% vs 6.5% estimate.HIGHEST since May 2017 outside of 2020 and 2021 Covid periodPrior month unemployment rate 6.4% Full-time employment -43.6K vs 61.6 K last month.Part-time employment 65.7K vs -64.4K last monthParticipation rate 65.1% vs 65.0 K last monthAverage hourly wages YoY 4.9% vs

Fundamental Overview This week the growth fears came back as the we got a couple of soft US data. Most of the weakness can be attributed to the ISM Manufacturing PMI which disappointed as it missed expectations, and the new orders index dropped further into contraction. Overall, the report was much better than the prior

The Apple’s iPhone 16 event is scheduled for 10 September at 1pm US Eastern time Goldman is bullish on the stock, and has increased its Apple price target to $276 GS lists four surprises could drive the stock price higher: announcing a price increase for the new iPhones (“AAPL’s investments in iPhone hardware and across

Jobs data consistent with a cooling economySays he would like to see the jobs data more closelyMore focus now on balancing Fed’s jobs and inflation mandatesElections don’t make the Fed’s job more difficultIndependent central banks achieve goals betterWe’re moving in the right direction on 2% inflation but not there yetPath on rate cuts will be

The market is now at 51% for 50 bps and 49% for 25 bps — almost as close as possible. Nick Timiraos from the WSJ highlights what the jobs report means: There was a chance the jobs report would provide an obvious signal on the size of the first cut, and futures-market pricing would move

HKEX will not trade this morning. Hong Kong Exchange and Clearing is the operator of the city’s stock exchange. Its cancelled morning trade in the securities and derivatives market after the city issued a Tropical Cyclone Warning Latest reports are that the warning will be lowered from 8 to 3 around 12.40 pm Hong Kong

The angst in markets is certainly showing up early today. S&P 500 futures are now down 0.7% and Nasdaq futures down 1.2%. This comes as bond yields are dipping, with 10-year yields in the US falling to below 3.70% – down 3.8 bps on the day. It’s all positioning flows ahead of the US jobs

There are a couple to take note of, as highlighted in bold. The first ones are for EUR/USD at the 1.1100 and 1.1150 levels. They are likely to help sandwich price action as traders wait on the US jobs report later in the day. And that is just that, markets are all fixated on the

Welcome to the main event of the week. The non-farm payrolls report for August is due at the bottom of the hour and Canada will be releasing its jobs report at the same time. The market is pricing in a 43% chance of a 50 bps cut from the Fed this month and that will

Prior 108.6; revised to 109.1Coincident index 117.1Prior 113.7; revised to 114.1 The assessment of the coincident index is maintained as “halting to fall”, with both that and the leading index seen rebounding back a little in July. This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

Prior +0.8%; revised to +0.9% House prices in the UK continue to nudge higher, with the latest seeing a typical property now costing £292,505 – its highest since August 2022. Halifax notes that: “Recent price rises build on a largely positive summer for the UK housing market. Prospective homebuyers are feeling more confident thanks to

The British Chambers of Commerce (BCC) Quarterly Economic Forecast makes a surprising argument. Researchers there are looking for a series of mini rate cuts from the Bank of England. In the note, the BCC says that after the first interest rate cut in over four years in August, the Bank of England is predicted to

German DAX futures -0.1%French CAC 40 futures +0.1%UK FTSE futures -0.1% S&P 500 futures are down by 0.1%, Nasdaq futures down by 0.4%, while Dow futures are up by 0.1%. At the balance, risk is a little softer with bond yields holding lower today. That is helping to pin USD/JPY down as well at 142.55

The US jobs report is due at 8.30am US Eastern time on Friday, September 6, 2024 (1230 GMT): Preview: Why August non-farm payrolls frequently disappointWhat would it take from non-farm payrolls to get a 50 basis point cut?Goldman Sachs NFP preview, say that August payrolls often have a negative bias initiallyFriday’s NFP result could prompt

Fundamental Overview It’s been a rough week for crude oil as the price dropped more than 6% on renewed growth fears amid a couple of soft US data. The delay by OPEC+ to increase production from October didn’t spark a rally but it helped to slow down the bearish momentum. A lot now hinges on

Crude oil futures is settling at $69.15 after trying to rebound for the first time in four trading days. It was not meant to be. The price is closing lower for the fourth consecutive day. The high for the day reached $70.78. The low for the day reached $68.79. What is not logical is that

In the European session, we won’t have market moving releases as we just get low tier data points and the 3rd estimate of the Eurozone Q2 GDP (old news). The focus of course will be on the US NFP report in the American session with the Canadian labour market report being released at the same

The plunge in early August when markets were throwing a tantrum was held by the December 2023 lows, at least on the daily chart. But even so, the pair has been trending in a lower highs, lower lows pattern ever since June this year. The trend speaks to a check back in optimism in European

Housing finance has been on an up trend. AUD/USD little changed. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

With so much scrutiny on the US labour market at the moment, it doesn’t come any bigger than jobs Friday. The non-farm payrolls data is going to be key in deciding how markets end the week. And it won’t be just the headline number, the details are going to matter too – especially the unemployment

This is a bit of a placeholder session ahead as we await you-know-what: Preview: Why August non-farm payrolls frequently disappointWhat would it take from non-farm payrolls to get a 50 basis point cut?Goldman Sachs NFP preview, say that August payrolls often have a negative bias initiallyFriday’s NFP result could prompt a 50bp rate cut by

Why it’s important? The ranges of estimates are important in terms of market reaction because when the actual data deviates from the expectations, it creates a surprise effect. Another important input in market’s reaction is the distribution of forecasts. In fact, although we can have a range of estimates, most forecasts might be clustered on

Prior +0.3% Looking at the breakdown, household consumption was more or less negligible on the quarter and that is the same for changes in inventories. Government expenditure contributed 0.1% while gross fixed capital formation fell by 0.5%. The latter was offset by trade i.e. exports less imports, which contributed 0.5% on the quarter. Anyway, this

Eurostoxx -0.2%Germany DAX -0.3%France CAC 40 -0.1%UK FTSE -0.2%Spain IBEX -0.3%Italy FTSE MIB -0.3% S&P 500 futures are now down 0.3%, with Nasdaq futures down 0.7% and Dow futures down 0.1%. Meanwhile, 10-year Treasury yields are down 3.3 bps to 3.700% and that’s weighing further on USD/JPY as well. The pair is now down 0.8%

Rate cuts by year-end Fed: 111 bps (57% probability of 25 bps rate cut at the upcoming meeting) ECB: 63 bps (98% probability of 25 bps rate cut at the upcoming meeting) BoE: 43 bps (77% probability of no change at the upcoming meeting) BoC: 58 bps (98% probability of rate cut at the upcoming

The major US stock indices are closing the day with mixed results. On a top side, the NASDAQ index is closing higher with a gain of 43.37 points or 0.25% at 17127.66.On the downside, the Dow industrial average felt -219.22 points or -0.54% at 40,755.74. The S&P index also fell by -16.66 points or -0.30%

Prior €20.4 billion The German trade surplus narrowed in July as exports grew by 1.7% but that was outpaced by imports, which grew by 5.4% on the month. This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

An ugly miss for this data point. At the margin its not yen supportive. July household spending +0.1% y/y expected +1.2%, prior -1.4% -1.7% m/m expected -0.2%, prior +0.1% USD/JPY update. Looks like its going to be a long wait until NFP. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

Bloomberg (gated) carry the report on exposures of Chinase state-owned banks. In summary: State run Chinese banks have used FX swaps to prop up the yuanBloomberg cites estimates that the banks have built short positions in the USD of over USD100bnWhich has created “virtually risk-free returns of about 6% as recently as July for traders

The pair is down another 0.3% today to just under 143.00 now, revisiting the overnight lows right after the US ADP employment change here. The thing is, the bond market is now convinced of a softer turn in the labour market and is pricing in more downside. In that lieu, traders are trying to skew

10-year Treasury yields are now down nearly 4 bps to under 3.70% and that is adding some weight to USD/JPY. The pair is now dragged down by 0.9% to near 142.00 with the 5 August low of 141.68 in focus. Equities are also not spared to further breakdown in yields, with S&P 500 futures now

People’s Bank of China USD/CNY reference rate is due around 0115 GMT. The People’s Bank of China (PBOC), China’s central bank, is responsible for setting the daily midpoint of the yuan (also known as renminbi or RMB). The PBOC follows a managed floating exchange rate system that allows the value of the yuan to fluctuate

Japanese household spending rose less than expected in July – recapFed speakers today include Williams and Waller – then the ‘blackout’ period beginsChinese banks used swaps to build short positions in the dollar of around US$100 billionFederal Open Market Committee (FOMC) blackout period begins on the weekendAustralian July home loans +2.9% m/m (expected +1.0%)Friday morning

Ian Lyngen is a great fixed income strategist and today he weighs in on the huge bid in bonds and what it would take to make a 50 basis point cut as the baseline: “The Treasury market is pricing in a weaker employment report than we’re likely to see,” he writes. “To be fair, we

Prior +1.4%; revised to +1.7% Factory orders may have gotten a boost amid a one-off nature yesterday here. But industrial output continues to slump hard and that adds to the worrying outlook for the German manufacturing sector. If you exclude energy and construction, the drop on the month is even more profound i.e. -3.2%. The

Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago President Austan Goolsbee spoke with Dow Jones / Market Watch (gated), published only minutes ago: “The long arc shows inflation is coming down very significantly, and the unemployment rate is rising faster” than Fed officials had expected in June Given the more favorable inflation data and the less favorable unemployment

BofA expects additional USD weakness following the August sell-off, citing historical patterns, valuation concerns, and shifting global financial conditions. Key Points: Historical Patterns: DXY Downtrend: After similar bearish breakouts in the past, the DXY index has typically continued its decline, averaging an additional 4% drop. This trend suggests further USD weakness, particularly against EUR, GBP,

JP Morgan projections come via Reuters oil reporting: With the window of opportunity to phase out production cuts now closed, OPEC+ will maintain current production levels at least for another year”Under this scenario, our price outlook calls for Brent to average $75 in 2025, with prices dipping into low-$60s by year-end”For oil, “$60 is not

The pound has made steady progress today and is now at the best levels of the week, despite a mixed picture for risk assets overall. It’s up 36 pips to 1.3180, which is the best since Friday and would be the best closing level since last Wednesday. Much of the move is being driven by

The us jobs report is due at 8.30 am US Eastern time (1230 GMT) on Friday, September 6, 2024. The focus on this is intense ahead of the September Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting. It’s a bit of a toss up right now for a 25bp oir 50bp rate cut. Earlier: What would it

Discover how to apply risk management in stocks so that you’ll never blow any trading account again The post Risk Management For Stock Trading (The Complete Guide) appeared first on TradingwithRayner.

Broadcom earnings are showing: EPS comes in at $1.24 versus expected $1.20. BEATRevenues come in at $13.07 billion versus expected $12.96 billion BEATAdjusted EBITDA came in at $8.22 billion versus expected $7.89 billion. BEAT Forward guidance comes in at $14 billion which is marginally lower than the 14.1 billion estimate. Other details Semiconductor Solutions Revenue:

The National Development and Reform Commission of the People’s Republic of China (NDRC) is China’s ‘state planner’. The NDRC has announced a measure that should serve as a form of stimulus: Gasoline and diesel prices will both be reduced by 100 yuan per tonne This is not a surprise from the NDRC, under the current

Good morning, afternoon and evening all. Any charts, technical analysis, trade ideas, thoughts, views, ForexLive traders would like to share and discuss with fellow ForexLive traders, please do so: This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

Broadcom will announce earnings after the close. What is expected? EPS $1.22Revenues $12.979 THe price of Broadcom – like other chip stocks – has been hit over the last few weeks of trading. From the high on August 22 and $172.42, the price has move down to a low of $149.15 reached just yesterday. That

The Wall Street Journal is reporting that GOP nominee and former president Trump is to propose a 15% corporate tax rate for companies that make products in the US. The current low tax rate is 21%. Trump will be speaking in front of the New York economic club shortly. The proposal according to Goldman Sachs

Crude oil prices are trying to rebound today with the price currently trading at $70 up $0.80 or 1.15%. The high price extended to $70.54. The low price was at $69.17. OPEC+ decided to delay the October output increase which was rumored yesterday. At the TOP of the hour, the weekly EIA and oil inventory

This is the lowest reading since January 2021, albeit barely. Prior was +122K (revised to +111K)Annual pay growth for job-stayers 4.8% vs 4.8% priorJob-changers’ pay gains 7.3% vs 7.2% priorService-providing sector added 72K jobs, goods-producing sector up 27KConstruction (+27K) and education/health services (+29K) led gainsProfessional/business services saw largest decline (-16K) The evidence is beginning to

Treasury Secretary Yellen is making some comments on the economy and says: US labor market has become a less tight, but continues to create jobsWe have a good strong the job market. Growth continues at a rapid pace Commenting on US Steel/Nippon Steel merger says US has a rigorous process of looking at national security

Via a note from Goldman Sachs’ managing director for global markets and tactical specialist Scott Rubner on Wednesday. “A market correction may start to get traction if payrolls are weak on Friday,” Expects selling to pick up from September 16. GS estimates about US$6.6 billion of passive demand until company earnings buyback blackout period begins

Futures have roamed back and forth today but are flat ahead of the equity open. Eyes have turned towards Friday’s non-farm payrolls report and I’d expect to see some position squaring ahead of that. There is clearly a tailwind from Treasuries with yields down another 3-5 across the curve to cycle lows. Lower borrowing costs

In the Kickstart video for September 5, I take a look at the three major currency pairs from a technical perspective – the EURUSD, USDJPY and GBPUSD. The dump of data this morning gave a mixed picture with the ADP employment change coming in below 100K the first time three years (weak). On the other

Some bullets from GOP nominee Trump: Will easily end 10 regulations for every new oneUS will be the leader for cryptoSays that there will be no tax on Social Security BenefitsWill lower corporate tax rate to 15% for good manufactured in the USWill increase tariffs on products coming in from different countriesSays tarriffs in the

Prelim was +0.9% Prior was +3.8%Productivity +2.5% vs +2.5% expectedPrelim productivity was +2.3% I wouldn’t take too much from this report. This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

Uh-Oh! The rise in the NASDAQ index today took the price to a high of 17295. That also extended briefly above its 200-hour moving average at 17284.26 (at the time – the current level is a little lower at 17281.12), but the momentum quickly reversed and traders started to use that moving average line as

Consensus estimate +160K versus +175K prior (range +100K to +246K)July was +114K Private consensus +139K versus +148K priorUnemployment rate consensus estimate 4.2% versus 4.3% priorPrior participation rate 62.6%Prior underemployment U6 7.8% vAvg hourly earnings y/y exp +3.7% versus +3.7% priorAvg hourly earnings m/m exp +0.3% versus +0.3% priorAvg weekly hours exp 34.3 versus 34.2 prior

Crude drawdown of -6.873 million vs expected drawdown -0.993M barrelsDistillates drawdown of -0.371 million vs. expected build of 0.481M barrelsGasoline build of +0.848 million vs expected drawdown of -0.730M barrelsCushing drawdown of -1.142M vs last week drawdown of -0.668M The private data released late yesterday showed a large drawdown in Crude stocks which seems to

Business activity index 53.3 versus 54.5 priorEmployment 50.2 versus 51.1 priorNew orders 53.0 versus 52.4 priorPrices paid 57.3 versus 57.0 priorSupplier deliveries 49.6 versus 47.6 priorInventories 52.9 versus 49.8 priorBacklog of orders 43.7 versus 50.6 priorNew export orders 50.9 versus 58.5 priorImports 50.3 versus 53.3 priorInventory sentiment 54.9 versus 63.2 prior I used to love

No preset idea on pace of rate hikesAlso none on whether we will hike rates several more timesIf economy, prices move in line with forecast, then we will adjust policy in stagesHave to scrutinise market moves at each policy meetingNo preset idea on whether there is a ceiling on how much we could raise rates

Investment mistakes are always expensive, which is why it’s best to learn from the experiences of others. With that in mind, here are the top ten tips that most investors really wish they had heard (and believed) sooner. 1. Start Early The power of compounding means that the sooner you start investing, the more time

The Bank of Canada cut rates by 25 basis points yesterday, but despite that cut, the CAD strengthened vs the USD (USDCAD lower). The move lower in the USDCAD cracked below the 100-hour moving average currently at 1.35136, but could not sustain downside momentum to the 200-hour moving average at 1.34926. IN trading today, the

Headlines: USD/JPY on the edge as yields look to leg down furtherWhat are the main events for today?BOJ’s Takata: No preset idea on any ceiling for ratesBOJ’s Takata: No specific timing in mind in scrutinising economy, price developmentsECB seen cutting rates next week and then again in December – pollEurozone July retail sales +0.1% vs

The NZDUSD moved higher earlier today, and in doing so, moved above the 100-hour moving average at 0.6209. The momentum price up-to-date 200-hour moving average of 0.62252. Getting above that moving average would have given the buyers more control. However, instead sellers leaned and push the price back below the 100-hour moving average in the

The ISM services report used to be one of my favorite economic indicators. It was a great forward-looking data point on the largest part of the US economy. But in the post-pandemic period it hasn’t been helpful. There have been three sharply lower prints indicating a rapid deterioration in the economy and all three proved

Ifo had previously forecast the German economy to grow by 0.4% in 2024 but is now anticipating the economy to stagnate instead. They also now expect the economy to grow by 0.9% next year, as opposed to their previous forecast of 1.5%. Looking further out to 2026, they see the economy also growing at the

The major European stock indices are closing mixed on the day. A snapshot of the closing levels shows: German DAX, +0.02%France’s CAC, -0.73%UK’s FTSE 100, -0.21%Spain’s Ibex, +0.53%Italy’s FTSE MIB, +0.17% As London/European traders look to exit, the US stock indices have turned back to the downside: Dow industrial average, down -328 points or -0.80%

Will there be a reaction? Dow industrial average -427 points or -1.05%S&P index -36.33 points or -0.67%NASDAQ index -21 points or -0.13% at 17063 in the US debt market: 2-year yield 3.749%, -2.2 basis points5-year yield 3.542%, -2.4 basis points 10- year yield 3.740%, -2 point basis points 30- year yield 4.037%, -3.0 basis points

The data from earlier today is here: Japan July wages data – Inflation adjusted wages +0.4% y/y Real wages in Japan turned positive for the first time in 27 months in June. July has followed up with another rise. Summertime bonus payments helped the July data. Bank of Japan Governor Ueda has repeatedly emphasised that

The market is transitioning today with the NASDAQ index rising while the Dow industrial average falls. The S&P is also higher but less so versus the Nasdaq. Nine minutes into the open,: Dow industrial average -142.87 points or -0.35% at 40832.11S&P index up 5.52 points or 0.10% at 5525.60NASDAQ index up 110.109 toward 0.64% at

Most companies have reported their earnings for the past quarter; overall, things look pretty solid. Despite a few big tech disappointments, market sentiment has stayed upbeat—things keep climbing. There’s strong optimism and ongoing demand for riskier assets, and any dips in the market are quickly bought up. When fear does hit, it’s more about shifting

OPEC+ agrees to delay Oct output increase for two months, according to a delegate cited by Reuters. This is exactly what was rumored earlier this week. Some market watchers are worried about a build in global inventories in H1 2025 though. So far this week, the rumors of this deal have done almost nothing for

S&P Global Canada Services PMI rises slightly to 47.8 in August from 47.3 in JulyComposite PMI came in at 47.8 in August, up from 47.0 but still indicating overall private sector contractionThird consecutive month of contraction in service sector activityNew business volumes decline at steepest pace in six monthsEmployment falls for first time in 2024Input

Via oilprice.com Do the suffering oil bulls get a reprieve on this? Or at least a bounce? — Expectations I had seen centred on: Headline crude -1.0 mn barrelsDistillates +0.5 mn bblsGasoline -0.7 mn — This data point is from a privately-conducted survey by the American Petroleum Institute (API). It’s a survey of oil storage

Prelim was 55.2Prior was 54.3Composite PMI vs 54.1 prelimPrior composite was 54.3 The ISM services number is due at the top of the hour. It’s normally tier-1 data but in the post-covid period, it’s been an unreliable indicator. This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

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With the presidential campaign in full swing there will be plenty more of this. Biden to speak at 4pm US Eastern time on Thursday, September 5, 2024. If he is discussing policy plans ahead it’ll be in regards to Harris’ electioneering. Around 60 days to go until the US election. This article was written by

The US treasury will sell $58 billion of 3 year notes on Tuesday, $39 billion up 10 year notes (9 year and 11 month actually) on Wednesday, and $22 billion of 30 year bonds (29 year and 11 month actually) on Thursday The size of the 10 and 30-year issues are unexpectedly cut by 3

Well, we got an early taste of things yesterday if US jobs data continues to disappoint in the sessions ahead. The JOLTS job openings here was enough to trigger more selling in the dollar and send yields tumbling. And we’re now seeing both USD/JPY and 10-year Treasury yields near a critical juncture on the charts.

The USD has moved lower after the weaker than expected ADP employment report. Later today we get Unit labor costs revised for Q2, Initial claims and the employment component of the ISM non-manufacturing index. All come before the US jobs report tomorrow. The ADP is pointing toward a weaker report tomorrow. The EURUSD is moving

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The Federal Reserve’s latest Beige Book report paints a picture of an economy that’s treading water, with slight growth in some areas offset by declines in others. Economic activity grew slightly in three Districts, while nine reported flat or declining activity. Employment levels held steady overall, though some firms are becoming more selective in hiring

There’s not much in the European session today as we will just get the construction PMIs and the Eurozone retail sales data. These are not market moving events. The focus will be again on the US labour market data in the American session with the US ADP, Jobless Claims and ISM Services PMI on the

The price of the USDCHF moved lower after the weaker than expected ADP employment report, but found support near a target at 0.84315. The initial jobless claims and the productivity/unit labor costs data reversed the price back to the upside. Although off the lows, there is work to do for buyers if they want to

The JPY is the strongest and the CAD is the weakest as the North American session begins. The USD is starting the day a little weaker. However, the top to the bottom is relatively scrunched together. It may be the jobs report which is still 24+ hours away in the US. The expectations are for

Prior was +0.2%Business output up 0.5%, hours worked up 0.6%Unit labour costs rose 0.8%, slowing from 1.3% in Q1Service sector the main drag, goods-producing businesses saw slight 0.1% productivity gainFull report The productivity dip, while modest, marks two consecutive quarters of declines. The slowdown in unit labour cost growth may ease some inflationary pressures, but

The poll shows that 64 of 77 economists (~85%) predict the ECB will cut rates by 25 bps at next week’s meeting and then again in December. Four other respondents expect just one 25 bps rate cut for the remainder of the year while eight are seeing three rate cuts in each remaining meeting. In

Gold is shining again today, up $25 to $2519 in a quick recovery after a three-day decline that ended Tuesday. It’s an impressive bounce that runs counter to recent seasonal weakness in Sept/Oct. There is a sense that China is behind the buying, particularly Chinese investors who have been burned by real estate and domestic

In summary from a note via TD on the crude oil market. TD argue that algorithmic trend-following strategies are unlikely to worsen the current downturn in crude markets, following a recent modest sell-off amounting to -6% of their maximum position size during the last session. TD says this marked the peak of selling activity for

Fundamental Overview The US Dollar has come back under pressure recently as we got a couple of soft US data. The US ISM Manufacturing PMI disappointed the market as it came lower than expected and the new orders index dropped further into contraction. The US Job Openings yesterday showed some more cooling as the data

Will steadily lower financing costs for firmsTo also lower credit costs for residents It’s all semantics as China continues to pledge support for the economy. But that hasn’t quite shown up as the economy has lost momentum in Q2 with weak domestic demand still weighing overall. And with that, markets are also still holding some

Prior week 231K revised to 232Kprior week continuing claims 1.868Minitial jobless claims 227K versus 230K estimate4-week moving average of initial jobless claims 230K vs 231.75K last weekContinuing claims 1.838M versus 1.865M estimate4-week moving average of continuing claims 1.853M vs 1.861M last weekThe largest increases in initial claims for the week ending August 24 were in

Fundamental Overview This week the growth fears came back as the we got a couple of soft US data. Most of the weakness can be attributed to the ISM Manufacturing PMI which disappointed as it missed expectations, and the new orders index dropped further into contraction. Overall, the report was much better than the prior

Prior +3.9%; revised to +4.6% The devil is in the details. The reading here has been volatile for many months already in 2024 and this is one of those times reflecting that again. If you actually exclude large orders (which tend to be a one-off), incoming orders were actually down by 0.4% in July compared

Fundamental Overview The US Dollar has come back under pressure recently as we got a couple of soft US data. The US ISM Manufacturing PMI disappointed the market as it came lower than expected and the new orders index dropped further into contraction. The US Job Openings yesterday showed some more cooling as the data

Fundamental Overview The US Dollar has come back under pressure recently as we got a couple of soft US data. The US ISM Manufacturing PMI disappointed the market as it came lower than expected and the new orders index dropped further into contraction. The US Job Openings yesterday showed some more cooling as the data

At 0700 GMT / 0300 US Eastern time China’s central bank and foreign exchange regulator hold a news conference Its on “promoting high-quality development”. Key speakers include: Lu Lei, deputy governor of the People’s Bank of ChinaLi Hongyan, deputy head of the State Administration of Foreign Exchange China’s State Administration of Foreign Exchange (SAFE) is

Reserve Bank of Australia Governor Bullock spoke earlier: RBA’s Bullock says as of now Board doesn’t expect to cut rates in near term More now: Level of demand for goods and services higher than supplyNeed to see results on inflation before lowering ratesTrying to manage demand down to where it is line with supplyTrying to

Goldman Sachs is forecasting a +155K headline nonfarm payroll employment number. This is slightly under the +160K consensus. More from their preview: Unemployment rate ticking down a touch to 4.2%Average hourly earnings +0.3% m/mAverage hourly earnings +3.7% y/yParticipation rate 62.7% GS cite (in summary): “Big Data” indicators suggest job creation is below recent payroll trendsAugust

In summary from analysts at Invesco Asia Trust on their outlook for China. Say that factors leading to ingrained pessimism on the economy include: faltering demand in the property marketweak consumer confidencea perception that the policy response to market weakness in late 2023 was underwhelming But, the analysts say they are maintaining a slight overweight

The changes among major dollar pairs are roughly 0.1% or less at the moment. And that exemplifies the more tentative mood that is gripping traders in European morning trade. USD/JPY was again the more volatile pair, dipping to a low of 143.05 before bouncing back to around 143.50 levels now. But outside of that, the

Prior -0.3%; revised to -0.4% It’s a marginal bounce for retail sales in the euro area after the decline in June. Here’s the breakdown: This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

Prior 40.0 The struggle continues for Germany’s construction sector as it continues to stay well into recession territory. The accelerated downturn comes amid a steep decline in both housing and commercial building activity. And that is slightly offset by a rise in civil engineering activity, although still reflecting a contraction as well. The full report

Prior 55.3 The reading is a little softer than in July but still looking good. New order growth continues to be strong while housing activity picked up to rise by its quickest since September 2022. Commercial activity remains the best performing sector but all – including civil engineering – are posting growth, so that about

The USDJPY is moving to a new session low as the clock ticks to the end of trading today. the low has reached 143.78. That is getting closer to the swing lows from last week at 143.67 and below that 143.49. A move below those levels (see red numbered circles) would have traders targeting the

Bank of Japan Board Member Takata says Japan’s economy is recovering moderately: Japan’s economy is recovering moderately, although some weak signs are seen.Stock and FX markets have seen big volatility, but we still see achievement of our inflation target in sight.We are seeing renewed rises in import prices.We must be vigilant to the chance of

I posted earlier in the week on Bullock speaking today. ICYMI, she is speaking twice: At noon local time, Bullock will address The Anika Foundation, Sydney 0200 GMT, 2200 US Eastern time (Wednesday evening) At 7 pm Sydney time Bullock will speak in a Fireside Chat (pre-recorded) at the Women in Banking & Finance Awards

The heads up to Bullock speaking is here from earlier this week: Reserve Bank of Australia Governor Bullock is speaking twice in the week ahead Repeating it … Reserve Bank of Australia Governor Bullock is speaking twice on Thursday September 5. At noon local time, Bullock will address The Anika Foundation, Sydney 0200 GMT, 2200

German DAX futures -0.1%UK FTSE futures -0.1% US futures are also lightly changed, near flat levels currently. So, that reflects a more tentative mood as we look to get the session underway. In any case, today is all about US data and the releases there will be the key trigger for markets before the non-farm

Current market moves are second round of volatility from early AugustIt reflects concern over the US economic outlookOur basic stance is to adjust degree of monetary support if things are on trackBut that does not go without some qualificationsIf markets are volatile, we must gauge said impact on the economy and prices This builds on

China’s President Xi, speaking at the China-Africa Summit: China will train African governance personnel and invite 1,000 African party members to visit China for dialogue.China is willing to unilaterally expand market access.China is willing to sign a trade cooperation framework agreement with African countries to provide long-term stability to trade relations.China is willing to create

Fundamental Overview This week the growth fears came back as the we got a couple of soft US data. Most of the weakness can be attributed to the ISM Manufacturing PMI which disappointed as it missed expectations, and the new orders index dropped further into contraction. Overall, the report was much better than the prior

More from RBA Governor Bullock: Level of demand for goods and services higher than supplyRBA’s Bullock says as of now Board doesn’t expect to cut rates in near termChina’s Xi, at China-Africa Summit: China is willing to unilaterally expand market access.The PBOC and China’s FX regulator will hold a press conference in a few hours

I posted earlier on: Reserve Bank (RBA) Governor Michele Bullock speaks soon on “The Costs of High Inflation” It begins at 1.05pm Sydne time, which is 0305 GMT and 2305 US Eastern time. Live link for when it comes around: Speech by Michele Bullock, Governor, at The Anika Foundation This article was written by Eamonn

Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco President Mary Daly Fed needs to cut policy rate because inflation is falling and the economy is slowingOn size of September Fed rate cut, “we don’t know yet.”Daly says she needs more data, including Friday’s job market report and CPI.Fed must calibrate policy to the evolving economy. Labor market

This tweet from the Wall Street Journal’s Fed-watcher Nick Timiraos: While the data is for July (with an upwardly revised June result thrown in) it was published by the Fed on September 3. If you are familiar with this inflation measure, this rise offers another reason that the speculation of a 50bp rate cut from

The People’s Bank of China set the onshore yuan (CNY) reference rate for the trading session ahead. USD/CNY is the onshore yuan. Its permitted to trade plus or minus 2% from this daily reference rate.CNH is the offshore yuan. USD /CNH has no restrictions on its trading range.A significantly stronger or weaker rate than expected

The Forex market – also known as foreign exchange – is the largest and most liquid market in the world, with trillions of US dollars being traded on a daily basis. Underpinned by currency interest rate fluctuations, it is also arguably more volatile than the stock market, given the multitude of economic and socio-political factors

People’s Bank of China USD/CNY reference rate is due around 0115 GMT. The People’s Bank of China (PBOC), China’s central bank, is responsible for setting the daily midpoint of the yuan (also known as renminbi or RMB). The PBOC follows a managed floating exchange rate system that allows the value of the yuan to fluctuate

USD/JPY was a modest mover in Asia but is not quite ready to break down just yet. It looks like traders will be looking to the US ADP employment change and weekly initial jobless claims data later for further clues. That is not to mention the ISM services PMI also being on the cards. The

Prior 2.5% The figure above holds unchanged from July but the trend has been indicative of softness in the Swiss labour market for a while now. It’s nothing too alarming but still at least one to keep an eye out for the SNB. This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

Eurostoxx -0.3%Germany DAX -0.1%France CAC 40 -0.5%UK FTSE -0.2%Spain IBEX -0.2%Italy FTSE MIB -0.2% The pressure is continuing on stocks this week with European indices now poised for a third straight day of declines. It’s still early in the day of course, especially since US data will be the one deciding the fate of risk

There are quite a number to take note of on the day, as highlighted in bold. The first ones are for EUR/USD and they are layered between 1.1060 through to 1.1100. The expiries are likely to help keep price action more contained in the session ahead, at least until we get to key US data

Today’s JOLTS report put a 50 basis point Fed cut squarely back on the table, along with the idea that the US won’t be able to sustain high rates. That’s causing a rethink in the spread for US rates over Japan and has led to a second day of of heavy selling in USD/JPY. A

Citi forecasts oil prices could drop to $60 per barrel next year if OPEC+ doesn’t increase production cuts. Then, from $60, prices could fall further to $50 before rebounding, influenced by financial flows.Geopolitical tensions are having minimal long-term impact on oil prices, with weaker rebounds after each spike.Markets now see these tensions as opportunities to

Japan wages data for July 2024 Average Cash Earnings +3.6% y/y expected +2.9%, prior +4.5% Overtime Pay -0.1% y/y prior +0.9% Real wages +0.4% y/y USD/JPY is falling away further: This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

The US major indices are moving lower again with the NASDAQ index down -0.31%. The S&P index is down -0.29%. The major indices opened lower today but then rebounded intraday. The NASDAQ index traded up 96.35 points at session highs, while the broader S&P index is up 24.07 points. The NASDAQ index is now down

Robert Rubin was Secretary of the Treasury during the Clinton administration. Speaking at a conference in Shanghai: US economy still has momentum but it has slowed someWe still have some reasonable growth, it is slowing but I think the Fed is doing about the right thing Earlier on we heard from a Fed official: Fed’s

Reserve Bank of Australia Governor Bullock addressing The Anika Foundation, Sydney on “The Costs of High Inflation”. It is premature to be thinking about rate cuts.As of now, the board does not expect to be in a position to cut rates in the near term.Our highest priority has been and remains to bring inflation down.The

US President Joe Biden is preparing to block the Nippon Steel acquisition of U.S. Steel, sources tell the Washington Post. Shares of US Steel (X) fell about 6% before being halted. President Joe Biden is preparing to announce that he will formally block Nippon Steel’s proposed $14.9 billion acquisition of U.S. Steel, according to three

Falling imports on the month is not a reassuring sign of a strong economy. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

Good morning, afternoon and evening all. Any charts, technical analysis, trade ideas, thoughts, views, ForexLive traders would like to share and discuss with fellow ForexLive traders, please do so: This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

Bloomberg (gated) had the report of a poor region of Argentina introducing its own currency, the chacho. province of La Riojaits governor, Ricardo Quintela, created the province’s own currency, the chachogiven out in lumps of 50,000 to all government employees as a ‘bonus payment’a gas station in the provincial capital city had business jump by

There is an interesting dynamic this week with non-farm payrolls on Friday and the FOMC blackout period starting Friday at midnight. If the jobs report is middling, it doesn’t leave much time for officials to signal that a 50 basis point cut is likely. Of course, they could always turn to a leak to the

A mix day for US stocks in up and down sessionDem nominee Harris capital gains tax plan to go to 28% if you make $1M or moreCiti says a 50 basis point Fed cut in September is likelyOPEC+ lifeline falls flat, WTI settles down $1.14Beige Book: Economic activity flat to slightly down in most DistrictsBiden

The major US indices are closing the day mixed. The Dow industrial average of 30 stocks closed higher. The broader S&P and NASDAQ indices of closed higher. The final numbers are showing: Dow industrial average rose +38.04 points or 0.09% at 40,974.98S&P index fell -8.84 points or -0.16% at 5520.08.NASDAQ index fell -52.00 points or

Democratic presidential candidate Harris says if earn more than $1 million, the capital gains tax rate will be 28%. The long-term capital gains tax rates are 0 percent, 15 percent and 20 percent, depending on your income. The higher rate is for those who earn over $554,000 (and married). This article was written by Greg

Various reports about OPEC+ delaying production increases from October to December briefly helped to lift oil today but it only provided an opportunity for the sellers to bail out. The bounces were sold aggressively and WTI settled at the lows of the day, down $1.14 to $69.24. Many are pointing to global growth and China

The BGA trade lobby group warned that German exporters in particular are facing up against a recession in foreign trade, no thanks to the government. They said that the direction in which Berlin has leaned towards in recent years are not helping. 70% of businesses surveyed feel the government’s actions were either a deterrent or

No surprises here in Asia after risk was pounded in the US on Tuesday. USD/JPY dropped under 145.00 but has popped back above: This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

A Canada PM Trudeau aide tells Reuters: The leader of the Canada’s opposition and new Democrats is tearing up deal that is helping keep PM Trudeau’s liberal government in powerAnnouncement of New Democrats means that if Trudeau is to continue governing, he will need to find support from other opposition legislators The USDCAD is little

The Nasdaq Composite is now down 2.6% with Nvidia acting as an anchor with a 7.9% decline. The chart doesn’t look great here as it never really approached the old high and looks like it’s on the way to some consolidation, in what’s a tough month seasonally. The Fed cutting by only 25 bps would

The USDCHF has move back to the downside after bouncing in the European session. The JOLTs data came in weaker. The factory orders to rebound by 5.0% after falling by -3.3% last month. The US yields are down with the 10 year down -6.0 basis points. The two-year is down -10.3 basis points. Of course

The full statement from the Bank of Canada on September 4, 2024: The Bank of Canada today reduced its target for the overnight rate to 4¼%, with the Bank Rate at 4½% and the deposit rate at 4¼%. The Bank is continuing its policy of balance sheet normalization. The global economy expanded by about 2½%

The AUDUSD fell sharply yesterday breaking below a target support level near 0.6696. However, the break was short-term and the price reestablished support against the level before moving higher. The run higher extended back above its 100-bar moving average on the 4-hour chart at 0.67236, but ran into resistance sellers near a swing area between

The price of crude oil is trading lower despite rumors that OPEC+ is close to delaying the planned supply hike. That comes after report on Friday that they would bring back barrels in October. The price has dropped from a high on Friday of $76.59. The current price is trading at $69.85 Technically,. The high

There was a strong consensus for a 25 bps cutWe did discuss scenarios where it would be appropriate to cut at a slower pace or by 50 basis points USD/CAD was trading at 1.3513 at the start of the press conference and the market was pricing in a 93% chance of another 25 bps cut

Bitcoin is sending a better signal on risk appetite as it fully recovers from the swoon as low as $55,605 earlier. The earlier bounce in bitcoin from the lows sent a positive signal that the Nasdaq eventually followed. The latest leg of buying in bitcoin has boosted it to $58,200 from $57,500 and could be

Prior +0.5%; revised to +0.6% It’s a beat on estimates but mostly owes to a jump in energy prices. Here’s the breakdown on the month: This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

After nine years in office, Justin Trudeau’s Liberal government is well-past its prime. Trudeau was asked about the NDP withdrawing its formal support for the Liberals today: Asked whether he will call an early election, says he is not focused on politicsSays he hopes opposition NDP can focus on delivering for Canadians rather than politics

It’s bizarre to me that OPEC+ would leak the plan to bring back barrels in October just on Friday and now it’s completely reversing that after a $5 drop in oil prices. Now Bloomberg reports — citing a delegate — that OPEC+ is close to delaying the supply hike. The chart doesn’t look great but

RIsraeli PM that Yahoo is speaking and says: there is a possibility of reaching a Ga cease-fire deal if they stick to their strategy.Israel is committed to their war goalsIf they relieve pressure on Hamas by leaving the Philadelphi corridorConditions of ceasefire must include a situation where the Philadelphi corridor cannot be used as a

The BOC cut rates by -25 basis points to 4.25%. BOC’s Macklem said that it is reasonable to expect further rate cuts in our policy rate, but warned that inflation may bump up later in the year. The USDCAD has moved modestly lower after the rate decision. That move takes the price farther from the

Analysts at Bank of America Global Research have cut GDP forecasts: for 2024 China to 4.8%, from 5.0% previouslyfor 2024 global GDP to 3.1% from 3.2% previously The China call is a brave one. China’s official GDP target is ‘around’ 5%. China tends to hit its forecasts, whatever it takes 😉 This article was written

The USD is moving lower across the board and those moves has the GBPUSD, USDCHF and USDCAD all testing the key 200 hour MAs. GBPUSD:The GBPUSD has moved above a swing area between 1.3128 and 1.31447 and also the 100 hour moving average at 1.3136. The next target comes in at the 200-hour moving average

Headlines: A slower start for major currencies so far todayOil jumps amid report that OPEC+ is discussing a delay to planned output hike in OctoberReminder: There is no ADP roulette on the agenda todayEurozone August final services PMI 52.9 vs 53.3 prelimUK August final services PMI 53.7 vs 53.3 prelimUS MBA mortgage applications w.e. 30

The Bank of Canada under Governor Tiff Macklem hasn’t been afraid to surprise markets and his latest opportunity comes today at 9:45 am ET. The Canadian housing market is hitting tough times and consumer spending is slowing, that means that the 4.50% overnight rate is unnecessarily restrictive. They’re on track to slowly bring that down

Prior +0.5%Market index 230.5 vs 226.9 priorPurchase index 136.1 vs 131.8 priorRefinance index 751.4 vs 753.8 prior30-year mortgage rate 6.43% vs 6.44% prior Mortgage applications rose in the past week but the breakdown was a bit more mixed. Purchases jumped but was partially offset by a decline in refinancing activity. That as the average rate

Wage growth pulling back to level more conducive to price stabilityBusiness contacts point to a loosening but still broadly stably labor marketLabor market conditions to weaken, but not weakAm now giving equal attention to maximum employment objective as inflationFed must stay vigilant to ensure inflation risks continue to waneAm not quite prepared to declare victory

Final Services PMI 51.2 vs. 51.4 expected and 52.5 prior.Final Composite PMI 48.4 vs. 48.5 expected and 49.1 prior. Key findings: HCOB Germany Services PMI Business Activity Index at 51.2 (Jul: 52.5). 5-month low. HCOB Germany Composite PMI Output Index at 48.4 (Jul: 49.1). 5-month low. Input cost inflation slows to three-and-a-half year low. Comment:

Prior 50.1Composite PMI 53.1 vs 52.7 prelimPrior 49.1 The boost in August is likely a one-off, owing much to increased demand from the Paris Olympics. This is evident as the upturn in terms of new business was relatively weak, coming in below the survey average. While input cost inflation eased further, French service providers actually

Good morning, afternoon and evening all. Any charts, technical analysis, trade ideas, thoughts, views, ForexLive traders would like to share and discuss with fellow ForexLive traders, please do so: This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

The Atlanta Fed GDPNow growth estimate for Q3 quarter rose modestly to 2.1% from 2.0% prior. In their own words: The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the third quarter of 2024 is 2.1 percent on September 4, up from 2.0 percent on September 3. After this morning’s releases

Reuters is out with the headline, citing three OPEC+ sources in saying that the bloc is discussing a delay to its planned output hike in October. It looks like they are finally not being stubborn about it but it took oil prices falling to its lowest levels this year for them to start rethinking about

0815 GMT / 0415 US Eastern time: Keynote speech by ECB board member Frank Elderson at Joint European Banking Authority & European Central Bank international conference “Addressing supervisory challenges through enhanced cooperation” This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

Services PMI 54.6 vs. 54.5 expected and 53.9 prior.Composite PMI 53.5 vs. 53.4 prior. Key findings: Uplift in growth despite weaker rise in new work. Slowest cost inflation since March 2021. Sentiment down to eight-month low. Comment: Commenting on the PMI data, Jonas Feldhusen, Junior Economist at Hamburg Commercial Bank, said: “While the Spanish are

More on Bank of America cutting its forecast for economic growth in ChinaEuropean Central Bank Elderson speaking Wednesday – not on the economy or monetary policyS&P on New Zealand’s CA deficit – if it doesn’t narrow could trigger for rating downgradeSEK traders – heads up for Riksbank First Deputy Governor Breman speaking WednesdayJapan Chief Cabinet

The EURUSD has raced higher after the JOLTs job report. The vacancy rate is being touted as a indication of the slack coming out of the labor market. Key Points about Vacancy Rate: Formula: Vacancy Rate = (Number of Job Openings / (Number of Employed Workers + Number of Job Openings)) × 100Indicator of Labor

July US job openings fell to the lowest since April 2021 in a sign that the labor market is weakening. Fed Chairman Jerome Powell highlighted that the FOMC doesn’t want to see further weakening in the jobs market but this number paints a picture of an economy where labor is in less demand. That tilted

European stocks fell at the open and then skidded along the bottom for most of the day until some modest bids late. The result was a second day of declines. Closing changes: Stoxx 600 -1.1%German DAX -0.7%Francis CAC -1.0%UK’s FTSE 100 -0.4%Spain’s IBEX -0.6%Italy’s FTSE MIB -0.5% This article was written by Adam Button at

For investors, the ultimate dream is to discover a unicorn company before it takes off and generates huge profits. History is full of such success stories, most recently in the technology sector. Recent examples in the semiconductor sector include Nvidia, AMD, ASML, and TSMC. Driven by growing demand for chips and advances in AI technology,

Prior was +0.64B (revised to -0.18B)Exports $65.66 billion vs $66.65 billion priorImports $64.97 billion vs $66.01 billion prior More details: Trade surplus with US widened to $11.3 billion from $9.0 billion in JuneDeficit with rest of world increased to $10.6 billion from $9.2 billionMotor vehicles and parts drove declines in both imports (-10.8%) and exports

It is a Wednesday on a non-farm payrolls week. And that typically means we should observe the US ADP roulette. However, not this week at least. Monday featured a US holiday so the timeline for data releases are pushed back a little. That will see the ADP employment data only come out tomorrow instead. As

Governor Tiff Macklem and Senior Deputy Governor Carolyn Rogers answer reporters’ questions following the policy rate decision. The opening statement from Macklem was pre-published. This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

Prior month 8.184M (was expecting 8.000M) revised lower 7.910MJob openings 7.673M. Lowest since Feb 2021vacancy rate 4.6% versus 4.8% last month revised from 4.9%Quits rate 2.1% versus 2.0% last month (revised from 2.1%).Separations rate 3.2% versus 3.2% last month Details: JOLT Job Report Summary for July Total job openings: 7.7 million, rate 4.6%Decreased by 1.1

Prior 51.9Composite PMI 51.0 vs 51.2 prelimPrior 50.2 A slight revision lower but the readings are still better than July. It mostly owes to a jump in French business activity though, which is arguably a one-off thanks to the Paris Olympics. One major detail to be mindful of is that the employment index dipped below

Prior was -3.3%Factory orders ex transportation +0.4 vs +0.1% prior This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

Services PMI 51.4 vs. 52.6 expected and 51.7 prior.Composite PMI 50.8 vs. 50.3 prior. Key findings: Fresh decreases in both total and international sales. Softest rise in business activity seen since January. Optimism in the outlook dips to ten-month low. Comment: Commenting on the final PMI data, Dr Tariq Kamal Chaudhry, Economist at Hamburg Commercial

US 2-year notes now yield less than 10-year notes. Aside from a brief move at the start of August, this would be the first move to a positive-sloping yield curve since the inversion in July 2022. It comes with US 2s down 10 basis points today to 3.79% while 10s have moved down 5.5 bps

In the kickstart video for September 4, I take a technical look at the EURUSD, USDJPY, GBPUSD and a special technical look at the USDCAD ahead of their interest rate decision at 9:45 AM ET. For the EURUSD, it rose to test a trend line on the hourly chart and the falling 100 hour MA

There is just one to take note of on the day, as highlighted in bold. That being for USD/CAD at the 1.3515 level. It isn’t one that really holds any technical significance but the expiries there could act as a bit of a floor to price action, at least until we get to the Bank

Eyes are on Nvidia shares again today after the 9.5% fall yesterday led to the largest one-day market-cap decline in the history of markets. The DOJ issued an anti-trust subpeona after the close and that’s led to a further 1.4% decline in shares in the pre-market, though many people believed that must have leaked yesterday.

Bank of Canada overnight rate was 4.50% before the decisionMarkets were pricing in a 76% chance of a 25 bps cut and 24% chance of 50 bpsMacklem will hold a press conference at 10:30 am ET, but the opening statement was released with the BOC statement USD/CAD was trading at 1.3546 ahead of the decision.

In the European session, we will just get the final services PMIs and the Eurozone PPI data. These aren’t generally market moving releases since they are old news. The real action should be in the American session when we get the Bank of Canada rate decision and the US Job Openings data. 13:45 GMT/09:45 ET

That opposed to a Trump victory of course, according to Goldman Sachs. The firm argues that economic output will take a hit next year under the Trump banner. And that is mostly from increased tariffs on imports and tighter immigration policies. Adding that jobs growth will also be stronger under a Democrat government as opposed

Market Overview: Tech Struggles Amidst Broad Fluctuations Today’s stock market presents a mixed bag with particular stress in the technology sector, albeit with notable exceptions. The heatmap analysis offers a granular look into which areas are facing headwinds and which are surging ahead despite broader market challenges. 📉 Semiconductors Slide, With Notable Exceptions The semiconductor

The major US stock indices are opening lower and adding to the woes from yesterday when the NASDAQ index fell -3.4% led by Nvidia which fell over 9.4% yesterday. A snapshot of the market currently shows: Dow industrial average is near unchanged at 40,940S&P index down -15 points or -0.28% at 5513.85NASDAQ index down -100

Japan Chief Cabinet Secretary Hayashi No comment on daily share movesClosely watching domestic and overseas market moves with a sense of urgencyWill conduct fiscal and economic policy management while working closely with BOJ Important to make assessment of market moves calmly Hayashi is in the running for new Japanese Prime Minister This article was written

Deutsche Bank is out with a note and it illustrates the big question on the US dollar: “As long as the dollar remains a high-yielder, there is very convincing evidence that it stays strong,” writes George Saravelos. But as the chart above shows, it’s priced to fall below AUD, NZD and GBP. “This would be

UBS argues that the oil market is undersupplied despite weak Chinese oil demand, with demand elsewhere making up for it. They also add that supply growth did disappoint in some non-OPEC+ states, contributing to the situation. As such, they are retaining a positive outlook on the oil market. And that they expect oil prices to

Geopolitics provided a bit of a boost to oil prices in recent months but it is a factor that always fades eventually. It’s no different this time around. And with growing worries surrounding global growth, that is putting added pressure to the outlook for the oil market currently. Not to mention that with so much

As the North American session begins, the JPY is the strongest and the CAD is the weakest. Looking at the currencies other than the JPY above, if it weren’t for the declines vs the JPY, the changes of all the currencies would be minimal for all of the major currencies vs each other. Trading ranges

Prior month $-73.1 billion revised to $-73.0 billionGoods trade balance $-102.84 billion versus $-96.56 billionServices surplus $24.3 billion versus $24.2 billion last month other details: Exports +0.5% versus +1.7% last month.Imports +2.1% versus +0.6% last month.Total exports $266.6 billion versus $265.279 last month. Higher Total imports $345.39 billion versus $338.28 billion last month. Higher.Capital goods

Goldman Sachs maintains a bullish outlook on gold, targeting $2,700 per ounce for early 2025. The firm recommends going long on gold due to increasing central bank purchases, anticipated Fed rate cuts, and gold’s role as a hedge against geopolitical risks. Key Points: Central Bank Purchases: Central bank gold purchases have tripled since mid-2022, driven

Fundamental Overview Yesterday, we got the US ISM Manufacturing PMI and even though the headline number missed expectations, under the hood the report was better than the prior month. The bad news was new orders falling further into contraction, which is a proxy for demand, and it’s generally considered as a leading indicator. What weighed

Fundamental Overview Yesterday, we got the US ISM Manufacturing PMI and even though the headline number missed expectations, under the hood the report was better than the prior month. The bad news was new orders falling further into contraction, which is a proxy for demand, and it’s generally considered as a leading indicator. Tight monetary

Economic growth in Australia in the second quarter of 2024. AUD little changed following the data. Weak growth for the Australian economy. The 1% y/y is the slowest since 1991 (apart from the pandemic recession). The RBA forecast 0.9% so the result would seem to have minimal monetary policy implications. subdued household demand detracted 0.1%

They had previously penciled in a 0.2% growth forecast for the German economy this year. Meanwhile, they also revised lower their projection for the economy next year. That is now see at a growth of 0.5%, down from 1.1% in their previous forecast. Again, with all these forecasts, it’s more to do with the trends

Eurostoxx -1.1%Germany DAX -1.2%France CAC 40 -0.9%UK FTSE -0.8%Spain IBEX -0.8%Italy FTSE MIB -1.0% It’s still a little rough out there with US futures also keeping lower to start the session. The DAX is now backing further away from record highs and the CAC 40 is now at a two-week low. S&P 500 futures are

Australian Q2 GDP is expected to eke out a small gain: +0.3% q/q expected+1.0% annual The ‘partials’ this week have been lacklustre: inventories negative, to detract 0.3%business profits and capex weak (falling)net exports +0.2% contribution but well under estimates Saved by government spending: public demand grew public investment grew Also coming is the final Chinese

The NZDUSD is trading to new lows as traders react today to risk-off sentiment as stocks/commodities slide. Concerns about growth in the US and CHna iare weighing on the pair. Recall from last week, the NZDUSD peaked on Thursday after a surprise ANZ Business confidence number (50.6 vs 27.1 estimate). However, since then the price

German DAX futures -1.2%French CAC 40 futures -1.0%UK FTSE futures -0.8% This carries over the selling from Wall Street yesterday. US futures are also down again today, with S&P 500 futures lower by 0.5% and Nasdaq futures down 0.6% currently. We’re not seeing much spillovers yet into FX but if the action picks up in

0730 GMT / 0330 US Eastern time: Riksbank First Deputy Governor Anna Breman participates in a panel discussion at a conference organised by the European Banking Authority (EBA) and the European Central Bank (ECB) — Sveriges Riksbank is the central bank of Sweden, and it operates independently from the European Central Bank (ECB). Sweden is

Here’s a recap of how the day is playing out so far: ForexLive Asia-Pacific FX news wrap: Australian GDP missRisk stays on the defensive after the selloff yesterdayA slower start for major currencies so far today The more interesting risk events in markets today will come later in North America trading. And that will be

Final Services PMI 53.7 vs. 53.3 expected and 52.5 prior.Final Composite PMI 53.8 vs. 53.4 expected and 52.8 prior. Key findings: Business activity growth accelerates again. Robust rise in new work led by improving domestic demand. Slowest rate of prices charged inflation for three- and-a-half years. Comment: Tim Moore, Economics Director at S&P Global Market

In New Zealand dollar terms, the index lifted 1.5% m/m as the NZD Trade Weighted Index fell 0.7%. As part of this report ANZ cover global shipping prices: Global shipping prices remain high as ships continue to avoid the Suez Canal due to ongoing tensions in the Middle East, and congestion occurs in the Port

In summary from an MUFG outlook: MUFG Bank suggests that the Japanese yen might strengthen further against the dollar, as the Federal Reserve is expected to begin cutting interest rates in September, while the Bank of Japan may raise rates again later this year. According to MUFG analysts, the market is underestimating the likelihood of

Banco Central de Chile rate cut Bank says the decision was unanimoussays cut to neutral level will be faster than projectedlower risk of more medium-term inflation persistency The Chilean central bank has a 3% inflation target This above screenshot from the Bank is not yet reflecting today’s cut. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan

Bloomberg (gated) carries the report, in brief: S&P Global Ratings is “broadly comfortable” with New Zealand’s sovereign rating outlookclosely watching NZ large current-account deficit and weak economic growthNew Zealand’s current account deficit was 6.8% of gross domestic product in the 12 months through March … among the widest of advanced economies, reflecting subdued exports, stronger-than-expected

People’s Bank of China USD/CNY reference rate is due around 0115 GMT. The People’s Bank of China (PBOC), China’s central bank, is responsible for setting the daily midpoint of the yuan (also known as renminbi or RMB). The PBOC follows a managed floating exchange rate system that allows the value of the yuan to fluctuate

The People’s Bank of China set the onshore yuan (CNY) reference rate for the trading session ahead. USD/CNY is the onshore yuan. Its permitted to trade plus or minus 2% from this daily reference rate.CNH is the offshore yuan. USD /CNH has no restrictions on its trading range.A significantly stronger or weaker rate than expected

The ranges for the day are still relatively narrow for the most part, with USD/JPY again holding the largest one. That said, even the range there is just a little over 60 pips with the pair continuing to gyrate in and around the 145.00 mark. The dollar did threaten a stronger push higher against the

The Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) report is a monthly report released by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS). it provides much-watched data on the US labour market, including information on job openings, hires, quits, layoffs, and discharges.considered a key indicator of labour market strength Due at 10 am US Eastern time:

Axios with the heads up on what Harris is expected to speak on later today, Wednesday, September 4, 2024: proposal includes a tenfold increase in the tax deduction for starting a small business — from $5,000 to $50,000. Harris will deliver her campaign speech in New Hampshire. Here is the Axios link for more. The

Bloomberg with the results of a survey it undertook. Bloomberg is gated, but the headline summary nis: Japan’s $1.75 trillion state pension fund may step up purchases of domestic stocks and scale back on foreign bonds in a reallocation of assets that would ripple through global markets GPIF is expected to boost its allocation target

I posted earlier on the BoA forecast cut for this year: Bank of America cut its 2024 China GDP forecast to 4.8% Adding in now that the bank has also cut its projection for 2025 to 4.5% growth. The forecast for 2026 is the same, at 4.5%. I’ve not got much lease on this, these

Time is ticking down on US equity trading today but there are some signs of slightly better risk appetite elsewhere. Bitcoin held the earlier lows and is now at the best levels of the US afternoon. The euro and pound are also getting a slight lift from the lows after breaking down a short time

Shares of Nvidia fell 9.5% today as the market frets about slowing progress in AI. There were worries last week after earnings but shares of Nvidia steadied after nearly a dozen price target boosts from analysts. But that would only offer a temporary reprieve as a round of profit-taking hit today and snowballed. The result

It looks like the bump higher during month-end last week was just that. Equities are starting to feel nervous again, with concerns surrounding Nvidia and tech resurfacing. It was brushed aside briefly after the earnings last week but added worries about global growth is perhaps also piling on top of things. The S&P 500 fell

Deutsche Bank economists suggest that if the U.S. August payroll report on Friday shows an unemployment rate of 4.2% or 4.3% with job gains between 130,000 and 150,000, it would likely reinforce market expectations for a 25-basis point rate cut by the Fed on September 18. However, if unemployment is higher or there are broader

US August ISM manufacturing index 47.2 vs 47.5 expectedUS August final S&P Global manufacturing PMI 47.9 vs 48.0 prelimUS construction spending for July -0.3% versus -0.1% expectedAtlanta Fed Q3 GDPNow 2.0% vs 2.5% priorECB’s Nagel says he won’t commit in advance of September rate moveNew Zealand GDT Price Index -0.4%ECB’s Simkus: Quite unlikely that we

Both of the Caixin PMIs outperformed official PMIs. The two are different surveys. China has two primary Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) surveys – the official PMI released by the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) and the Caixin China PMI published by the media company Caixin and research firm Markit / S&P Global. The official PMI

The major US stock indices had an ugly day to start the new trading month. The NASDAQ index led by Nvidia and other chip stocks stumbled and tumbled. The index had its worst trading day since August when the index fell -3.43%: A look at some of the chip stock shows: Nvidia, -9.53%. The stock

A note from analysts at Citi says that “relatively small differences in Friday’s jobs reading could materially affect Fed policy.” In brief: a headline non-farm payroll (NFP) of 125,000 with a 4.3% unemployment rate of 4.3% is likely to prompt a 50bp rate cut from the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) this montha 4.2% jobless

In summary from the report commentary: August saw continued positive growth in Japan’s service sector, with increases in both activity and new business.The growth rate in activity remained steady, while the expansion of new orders slowed. Employment rose for the eleventh consecutive month, though the rate of increase slowed to a seven-month low. Business optimism

Goldman Sachs on artificial intelligence cutting oil prices ahead: “AI could potentially reduce costs via improved logistics and resource allocation … resulting in a $5/bbl fall in the marginal incentive price, assuming a 25% productivity gain observed for early AI adopters,” Goldman expects a modest potential AI boost to oil demand compared to demand impact

In summary: Improvement in Activity: The Services PMI showed increased activity in August after a softer July, indicating a rebound in the services sector.Business Confidence: Despite higher margin pressures, services firms became more confident about future activity levels over the next 12 months.Business Activity Growth: August marked the seventh consecutive month of expansion in Australia’s

That headline is a snippet from a Deutsche Bank report. “Gold has been lower in 10 of the last 11 Septembers” Analysts at the bank also note that: The S&P 500 has been lower for the last four SeptembersBy the end of the month, we’ll also be just 5 weeks away from the US election

The USDJPY is bouncing after starting the US session with a move below 100 hour MA and 50% retracement of the August range when both were near 145.53. The momentum continued down to the 200-hour MA near 145.21. The low reached 145.12 but ran out of downside momentum despite the break below. The price has

That line from Federal Reserve Chairman Powell, uttered at Jackson Hole looms large in market pricing this week and going forward. The takeaway is that they don’t want to see unemployment rise meaningfully, or perhaps at all. Financial conditions are worsening to start the month and the ISM manufacturing survey had the lowest new orders

BofA anticipates the Bank of Canada (BoC) will cut the overnight rate by 25 basis points in its September 4 meeting, bringing it to 4.25%. Despite CAD’s recent rally, the currency is not expected to move significantly post-meeting, as it is nearing its short-term fair value against the USD. BofA forecasts USD/CAD to retrace to

Major US indices are opening lower with the NASDAQ is down -200 points to raising the gains from Friday’s trade (+197 point). A snapshot of the market nine minutes into the open showing: Dow industrial average -228.2 at -0.55% at 41338S&P index -23.51 points or -0.77% at 5605NASDAQ index -211 points or -1.19% at 17504

Prior was +5.5%Avg prices $3,833/MTWhole milk powder -2.5% This isn’t been a market mover in awhile but I continue to post it out of tradition more than anything. NZD is struggling today on risk aversion. This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

US stocks opened lower and are going even lower after some weaker data. The S&P global manufacturing PMI was we can expected followed by the ISM PMI data also coming in lower. Construction spending completed the hat-trick with lower than expected results. The poor economic data has the two-year down -7 basis points at 3.856%,

The euro is struggling today as the US dollar gains broadly on a painful turn in the risk trade. What looked like a breakout to a one-year high only a week ago is now looking suspect. The euro easily fell back below the December highs and took out 1.1050 today. Next is the 1.1000 level,

These unrelated to economic and monetary policy developments. Perhaps we’ll get something in a Q&A though. 1200 GMT / 0800 US Eastern time ECB bank supervisor Claudia Buch and ECB’s José Manuel Campa speak at a Joint European Banking Authority & European Central Bank international conference 1400 GMT / 1000 US Eastern time: Panel participation

Yesterday, European stock markets recovered from an early dip. Today was a different story as the major indexes closed near the lows: Stoxx 600 -1.1%German DAX -0.9%Francis CAC -0.9%UK’s FTSE 100 -0.8%Spain’s IBEX -1.1%Italy’s FTSE MIB -1.4% There hasn’t been a meaningful selloff since August 5. This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

The EURUSD rebounded on the back of the yield declines at the start of the US session, but has reversed to the downside after the pair tested the highs from yesterday and the 100 bar MA on the 4-hour chart at 1.10712. The US session high reached 1.1068 just 3 pips short of that MA

The ECB’s Simkus spoke with Econostream and delivered some hawkish comments. For the cut in September I see a quite clear case. For cutting in October or by more than 25bp, I find it quite unlikely.No strong argument for 50bp cut despite weakening economyMarket implied chances of an October cut are around a 40% probability”The

Let’s try to keep this one short, shall we? Two weeks back, gold looked poised for a technical break as it jumped above key resistance at the time near $2,480. The move higher also took out the $2,500 mark but since then, there wasn’t much follow through. Instead, we got caught in a consolidation phase

The great inflation wave is overWon’t commit in advance on whether he will support a rate cut in Sept Spoiler, the cut is coming whether he supports it or not. This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

The takeaway from Powell’s Jackson Hole speech was that he wanted to leave 50 basis points on the table for this meeting and future ones. Markets are now off to a rough start in September and bonds are bid strongly, with yields down 7-8 bps across the curve despite some hefty corporate supply. With that,

Prior month 47.8S&P global manufacturing PMI for August 49.5 versus 47.8 last month For the full report, CLICK HERE. Below are the main points in bullet format: Canada’s Manufacturing Economy: Operating conditions continued to deteriorate in August, but at a marginal and softest degree since March. Slower falls in output and new orders were reported.

Nvidia shares are currently trading down $-9.02 or -7.56% at $110.37. That is right at its 100 day moving average at $110.36. The low price did reach $109.40 below that moving average. Bearish The current decline is on pace for its worst trading day since April 19, 2024 when the price fell -10%. The price

British Retail Consortium (BRC) total sales in August +1.0% y/y vs +0.5% in July BRC Like-for-like sales +0.8% y/y vs +0.3% in July Barclaycard UK August consumer spending +1.0% y/y (after declining the previous two months) chief UK economist at Barclays, said its survey supported its view that consumers would increasingly support the economy, which

Japan’s Sumitomo Mitsui DS Asset Management argues that the worst is now behind for China. This snippet in brief. Analysts at the firm hold a positive outlook, citing: Chinese equities are attractively valuedThe worst is now behind China, even if the property market may take longer than expected to recover significantly I’m digging up a

Prior month -0.3% Total Construction: Down for the month. Still higher on the year. Seasonally adjusted annual rate: $2,162.7 billion (-0.3% below June estimate) +6.7% above July 2023 estimate Year-to-date (first 7 months): $1,237.5 billion (+8.8% above same period in 2023) Private Construction: Lower on the month and the year Seasonally adjusted annual rate: $1,678.7

The USDCAD is moving higher as focus for that pair is on the fall in commodity prices including the price of oil and the risk-off flows due to tumbling stocks in the US. Technicals have also played a role in the USDCADs rise to the upside after earlier in the day, the price moved back

The risk mood was seen steadier at the open in Europe this morning but has quickly turned in the last hour or so. S&P 500 futures are now down 0.5% with Nasdaq futures down 0.8%. Meanwhile, Dow futures are also down by 0.5% currently. That is putting a drag on European equities as well while

It’s a rough one for oil today with WTI crude oil down $3.03 to $70.52. That’s the lowest since January 17 and perilously close to the $60s. The latest leg of selling came after a report on Friday that said OPEC+ is likely to proceed with a planned gradual production increase from October. The weekend

Prelim was 48.0July final was 46.8Production declines for first time in 7 monthsNew orders fall at fastest pace since June 2023Employment drops for first time this yearInput cost inflation accelerates to 16-month high The ISM manufacturing report is due at the top of the hour. Chris Williamson, Chief Business Economist at S&P Global Market Intelligence,

The Nasdaq index is down -443 points or -2.5% at 17271. That has taken the price below its 200-hour moving average 17304.22, and is testing a gap going back to August 14 to August 15 at 17260.73. The low price today has reached 17267.58. If the price were to move below those levels, the 30

This isn’t going to improve the mood in markets but it still very early in the Q3 reporting cycle. Prior was 2.5% From the Atlanta Fed: “After this morning’s releases from the US Census Bureau and the Institute for Supply Management, the nowcasts of third-quarter real personal consumption expenditures growth and third-quarter real gross private

August consumer price index +2.0% y/y (expected +2.0%) Consumer price index +0.4% m/m (expected +0.3%) Core CPI +2.1% y/y vs +2.2% in July Consumer price index marks slowest rise y/y since March 2021Core CPI marks slowest rise y/y since November 2021 Info comes via Reuters, the slowing pace of inflation continues globally. This article was

Now that the Swiss CPI is out of the way, there’s not much else left for the European session. The focus will be on the US ISM Manufacturing PMI in the American session which could set the trend into the NFP report on Friday. 14:00 GMT/10:00 ET – US August ISM Manufacturing PMI The US

Prior was 46.8Prices paid 54.0 versus 52.9 priorEmployment 46.0 versus 43.4 priorNew orders 44.6 versus 47.4 prior (lowest since May 2023)Production 44.8 versus 45.9 priorSupplier deliveries 50.5 versus 52.6 priorInventories 50.3 versus 44.5 priorBacklog of orders 43.6 versus 41.7 priorNew export orders 48.6 versus 49.0 priorImports 49.6 versus 48.6 prior The new orders number is

The Fedspeak is quiet today, but former Cleveland Fed President Loretta Mester is on CNBC (she is newly retired from the Fed) Jobs work is going to be an important piece of the puzzleThere will be a discussion on whether they want to start with a 25 or 50 basis point cutWhat is the path

I’ve been warning for a week about poor September seasonals and here they are. It’s the worst month for stocks, oil and gold. All three of the trio are down today and some in a big way. Perhaps most-worrying is the drop in shares of Nvidia, which are down 8% with little in the way

Today’s Market Landscape Investors grappled with broad-based shifts across multiple sectors today, with the tech sector experiencing notable downward pressure, particularly in semiconductors, while other industries showed mixed results, signaling diverse investor sentiment and strategic positioning. 📉 Semiconductor Sector in the Spotlight The semiconductor sector painted the heatmap red today, confronted by significant declines. Nvidia

Just a week to go until the next US presidential debateUS futures dribble lower on the sessionGold stays poised for a firmer breakout in big week for the dollarEuropean equities open a little higher to start the daySNB has just about the right excuse to do a little bit more later this monthSwitzerland Q2 GDP

As the North American session begins, the JPY is the strongest and the AUD is the weakest. The USD is stronger as traders return from the Labor Day holiday. It is full steam ahead now to the US presidential debate on September 10 (assuming solving the mic issue), which will culminate in the Presidential Election

There are a couple to take note of, as highlighted in bold. The first being for EUR/USD at the 1.1050 mark. And that could perhaps limit price action and make things a bit stickier in the session ahead before we get to the US open. Similarly, the one for USD/CAD at the 1.3500 level will

US yields have taken a dip to the downside over the last minutes of trading with the two year now down -3.1 basis points, the tenure down -5.2 basis points and 30 year yield also down -5.2 basis points. Looking at the 10-year yield, the dip has taken the yield down to 3.86%. That is

Bank of England Deputy Governor Breeden speaking on TuesdayECB speakers on Tuesday may be light on comments re the economy and monetary policyJapan will spend nearly a trillion yen to cover energy subsidiesAustralian data – Q2 net export contribution to GDP +0.2% (expected 0.6%)PBOC sets USD/ CNY central rate at 7.1112 (vs. estimate at 7.1120)USD/JPY

The dollar is keeping in a decent spot to start the day, with risk sentiment a little more sluggish to start the month. S&P 500 futures are down 0.2% and Nasdaq futures down 0.4% currently. But it’s stilly early in the week, with plenty of US data to work through. USD/JPY continues to bask in

I suspect this will have more to do with Harris’ campaigning for the presidency than anything else. Its going to be an issue for the next few months, disentangling anything the President says from electioneering. Anyway, a heads up. Perhaps we’ll get something substantive for markets. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

In the kickstart video, I take a technical look at the EURUSD, USDJPY and GBPUSD. For the EURUSD, it moved down to test the 38.2% retracement of the August trading range near 1.10389 but has since bounced back to the upside. If the sellers are to take more control they need to get and stay

These will also include canola imports as well as rapeseed, with the latter being a major export for Canada to China. The retaliatory move by China comes after the Canadian government announced a decision to impose 100% tariffs on Chinese EVs last week. They also decided to impose an additional 25% tariff on some aluminum

The event will take place at the National Constitution Center in Philadelphia at 9pm EDT (or 0100 GMT the next day). The question is, if there is a clear winner, who will be better or worse for the dollar? The short answer is that it isn’t going to be so straightforward. On the one hand,

Fundamental Overview The USD has finally got some relief since last week after being battered for weeks. The focus is now on the key data this week with the ISM Manufacturing PMI today and the NFP report on Friday in the spotlight. The market is waiting for the key economic releases this week, and especially

Fundamental Overview The USDJPY pair eventually erased the entire drop following the more dovish than expected Powell’s speech at the Jackson Hole Symposium. The focus is now on the key data this week with the ISM Manufacturing PMI and the NFP reports in the spotlight. The market is waiting for the key economic releases this

People’s Bank of China USD/CNY reference rate is due around 0115 GMT. The People’s Bank of China (PBOC), China’s central bank, is responsible for setting the daily midpoint of the yuan (also known as renminbi or RMB). The PBOC follows a managed floating exchange rate system that allows the value of the yuan to fluctuate

We’re barely into the start of North American trading for the month but so far September is living up to the billing of being a miserable month. S&P 500 futures are down 0.5% and Nasdaq futures are a tad worse. The oil market is worried about a resumption of Libyan production and poor demand, with

German DAX futures flatFrench CAC 40 futures -0.1%UK FTSE futures -0.1% This follows the slight gains from the day before. US futures are looking sluggish, so that’s also weighing a little on the mood. It looks like the German retail sales data for May is postponed indefinitely again. What’s up with that, Destatis? Pfft. Anyway,

The high earlier in the day was around 147.20 and tested the overnight high as well. Sellers held and since then, it’s been one-way traffic now as we get into European morning trade. USD/JPY is back down to near 146.00, although buyers are very much still in control as evident from the near-term chart above.

· Kuady expands its digital wallet services to Argentina, offering secure and efficient digital payment solutions · Following successful launches in Peru and Chile, Kuady continues its Latin American expansion, with further regional and global growth planned Open Payment Technologies Ltd, a payments service processor, has today announced the expansion of its digital wallet services,

Fundamental Overview Last week, crude oil has been on a seesaw due to supply side factors as we got the news that Libya was going to close down all oil fields and halt production and exports, and then that Iraq was going to cut production. On Friday, oil weakened again on the news that OPEC+

Fundamental Overview The USDCHF pair eventually erased the entire drop following the more dovish than expected Powell’s speech at the Jackson Hole Symposium. The focus is now on the key data this week with the ISM Manufacturing PMI and the NFP reports in the spotlight. The market is waiting for the key economic releases this

Data is here: South Korea’s headline CPI in August has risen at its slowest y/y pace since March 2021 South Korea’s Vice fin min comments after data showed consumer inflation hits its weakest in nearly three-and-a-half years. This has boosted expectations for an imminent easing of monetary policy at the Bank of Korea’s next meeting

Prior +0.5% The SNB might be worried about the Swiss industry but as a reminder, the economy relies much more heavily on its services sector. And overall, things seem to be doing just fine. Still, that doesn’t mean that the central bank should be too complacent and risk a potential return of deflationary pressures in

South Korea’s central bank said on Tuesday that consumer inflation was expected to maintain the current stable trend for the time being. The Bank of Korea said inflation was stabilising more quickly than in other major economies, in a statement released after data showed inflation reached the central bank’s target in August. This in reference

Eurostoxx +0.2%Germany DAX +0.3%France CAC 40 +0.2%UK FTSE +0.2%Spain IBEX +0.3%Italy FTSE MIB +0.2% S&P 500 futures are now flat and Nasdaq futures are down just 0.1%, having been down 0.4% earlier. It’s still early in the day of course, especially with the US ISM manufacturing PMI in focus. As for the week itself, it’s

SNB chairman Thomas Jordan last week said that the strong franc was not making things easier for the Swiss economy. And when you hear comments like that, it stands to reason that the central bank is watching things closely and might plot their next move based on how they would want to narrate the direction

New Zealand export and import prices data for the April, May and June quarter of 2024 Terms of trade +2.1% q/q expected +2.0%, prior +5.1%for the y/y, -1.6% Export Prices +5.2% q/q expected +2.8%, prior -0.3%for the y/y prices of exports -1.0%export volumes -4.3% q/q Import Prices +3.1% expected +0.5%, prior -5.1%for the y/y prices

USD/JPY traded higher on Monday in Europe. It tracked pretty much sideways during the US holiday that followed. Asian morning trade is testing the Monday high. The backdrop is solid uptrend on the hourly chart, but note the prior tops around this area from the week of 19-24 August that, for my 2 cents, look

Via UBS come some interesting points with the S&P 500 only around 1% from a record high. The note looks at the S&P 500 total returns (i.e. price gain plus dividends) from 1945, and points out the drawdown % risks from buying at random starting points: in 28% of cases an investor buying at a

Prior +1.3%Core CPI +1.1% y/yPrior +1.1% There’s no change to the core reading, as it holds at a similar figure to July. If anything, SNB can feel comfortable in cutting rates further if need be. As things stand, the odds of a 25 bps move later this month are at ~66% with the remainder priced

I noted earlier that: ECB speakers on Tuesday may be light on comments re the economy and monetary policy That looks to be the same from Breeden: 1245 GMT / 0845 US Eastern time – Bank of England Deputy Governor Sarah Breeden moderates a panel on financial regulation at the ECB This article was written

Justin was all over the news of infighting at the European Central Bank for what comes after September: A growing rift at the ECB on the economic outlook? Its the same old doves vs. hawks: doves are arguing that the economy is much weaker than thought, which could accelerate a weakening in price pressureshawks are

The weekly survey of consumer sentiment rose to 83.1 ANZ note: ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence rose 0.5ptsInflation expectations eased to 4.6%, its lowest point since late 2021 Household confidence in the future financial situation rose to a 5mth high, back into positive territory This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

Current Account data from Australia for the April to June quarter of 2024 Australia Current Account AUD -10.7bn, a huge miss expected -5.0bn, prior -4.9bn Australia Net Exports Contribution 0.2% … a big miss and a big hit to Q2 GDP expected 0.6% prior -0.9% Public sector demand will add approximately 0.4% to Q2 GDP.

Cost of living pressures in Japan from high energy prices prompting government sup[port measures. Japan will spend about 989bn yen from reserve funds to cover energy subsidies The Bank of Japan is trying to fuel inflation … I guess higher energy prices are ‘bad ‘ inflation though, right? Bank of Japan Governor Ueda This article

The People’s Bank of China set the onshore yuan (CNY) reference rate for the trading session ahead. USD/CNY is the onshore yuan. Its permitted to trade plus or minus 2% from this daily reference rate.CNH is the offshore yuan. USD /CNH has no restrictions on its trading range.A significantly stronger or weaker rate than expected

Bloomberg carried the report overnight. Bloomberg is gated, but in brief. In July, Japan started restricting exports of 23 types of semiconductor manufacturing equipment, aligning with U.S. efforts to limit China’s ability to produce advanced chips. China has responded by warning Japan of significant economic consequences if Japan further limits the sales and servicing of

Good morning, afternoon and evening all. Any charts, technical analysis, trade ideas, thoughts, views, ForexLive traders would like to share and discuss with fellow ForexLive traders, please do so: This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

The data from Australia today will include a key input to the Q2 GDP data that is due on due on Wednesday 4 September. In the Q2 Current Account data will be the figure for the net export contribution to GDP. The consensus estimate I have seen is for 0.6%, while Q1 was -0.9%. estimates

Recapping the two China Manufacturing PMIs for August – mixed signalsJapan Q2 capex recap fuels optimism for a domestic recovery, and case for more BOJ hikesChina Caixin Manufacturing PMI August 2024: 50.4 (expected 50.0, prior 49.8)HSBC with two reasons the USD should strengthenAustralian job ads down 2.1% m/m in August (prior -2.7%)Australian data – Q2

HSBC is looking for a bounce for the USD, saying that: 1. The dollar looks to have weakened excessively relative to dovish expectation for Fed rate cuts 2. Says the economy in the US does not warrant the market pricing of the rate of Fed easing (referring to expectations of 100bp of cuts by year

People’s Bank of China USD/CNY reference rate is due around 0115 GMT. The People’s Bank of China (PBOC), China’s central bank, is responsible for setting the daily midpoint of the yuan (also known as renminbi or RMB). The PBOC follows a managed floating exchange rate system that allows the value of the yuan to fluctuate

Prior 43.5 That’s a marked improvement as output returns to positive territory on the month. That said, it’s too early to call this a return to a sustainable recovery just yet. A stronger franc currency, something which the SNB is warning about, could come back to bite at the manufacturing sector still. Anyway, here’s the

US markets are closed on Monday for Labor Day but will come to life on Tuesday including some notable economic data. The highlight is the 10 am ET release of the August ISM manufacturing index. In July, the survey disappointed with a fall to 46.8 compared to 48.8 expected. This month, economists expect a rebound

The far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) party looks set to win in a regional election, according to exit polls. AfD is projected to secure 33.5% of the vote in the Thuringia state parliamentary elections ahead of the conservative Christian Democrats (CDU), who are expected to get 24.5%. In Saxony, another region holding elections, the AfD

Manufacturing PMI 49.4 vs. 48.5 expected and 47.4 prior. Key findings: Declines in production and new orders only modest in August. Firms raise staffing levels for first time since April as outlook brightens. Charge inflation returns after nearly a year-and-a-half of reductions. Comment: Commenting on the PMI data, Dr Tariq Kamal Chaudhry Economist at Hamburg

Multi-asset Forex and CFD broker, FP Markets, further cemented its position as one of the industry’s global leaders, claiming two prestigious awards at the Finance Magnates Pacific Summit (fmps:24). The company won ‘Best Forex Spreads APAC’ and ‘Best Trading Experience APAC’ at the closing event of the two-day summit which was held on Thursday 29

Final Manufacturing PMI 52.5 vs. 52.5 expected and 52.1 prior. Key findings: Manufacturing PMI at 52.5 in August. Broad-based growth by sector. Domestic market drives new contract wins. Comment: Rob Dobson, Director at S&P Global Market Intelligence “The UK manufacturing sector remained a positive contributor to broader economic growth in August. The headline PMI hit

It’s a busy week ahead in terms of economic events. Monday kicks off with a few notable releases, including the final manufacturing PMI for the eurozone. It’s also a bank holiday in Canada and the U.S. in observance of Labor Day. On Tuesday, Switzerland will release its CPI data, while the U.S. will report the

Rate cuts by year-end Fed: 99 bps (69% probability of 25 bps rate cut at the upcoming meeting) ECB: 58 bps (98% probability of 25 bps rate cut at the upcoming meeting) BoE: 39 bps (78% probability of no change at the upcoming meeting) BoC: 75 bps (79% probability of 25 bps rate cut at

Reports on Libyan production have been mixed, with some saying it was resuming while others say it’s still halted. WTI crude is flat at the moment after initially falling at the open, highlighting the uncertainty. The latest report comes from S&P Global, which says that up to 230k bpd has been restored in three fields

I wouldn’t worry too much about the system in the northern Gulf but the pair of disturbances in the Atlantic both have a 40% probability of developing into tropical cyclones in the next week, according to the NHC. The one in the Antilles also looks to be tracking towards the Gulf of Mexico. This article

As posted over the weekend, the official NBS Manufacturing PMI in China for August fell to 49.1 from 49.4 in Julyexpected was 49.5 fourth straight month of contractionsteepest decline since February A glance at some of the sub indexes, these three fell for the fourth consecutive month: output 49.8 vs 50.1 in Julynew orders 48.9

Data from Japan’s finance ministry for spending on plant and equipment in April-June 2024: +7.4% y/y expected +9.9%, prior +6.8%for the q/q, +1.2% Capex is an input to the GDP data for Q2 due on September 9 Other data showed sales rose 3.5% y/y, while recurring profits rose 13.2% y/y Japan Inc. does not appear

With the US on holiday, European traders had little incentive to get markets moving today. There was some early selling that recovered for a flat close. Stoxx 600 flatGerman DAX +0.1%Francis CAC +0.2%UK’s FTSE 100 -0.2%Spain’s IBEX flatItaly’s FTSE MIB -0.1% I would expect price action to perk up tomorrow and September is typically a

There are still 60-70 living hostages in Palestine and Biden has said he wants to conclude a broader deal in Palestine before leaving office. Presumably he wants it done before an election as that should help Democrats’ chances. Internal pressure is also rising for Netanyahu after huge protests on the weekend. He’s also facing pressure

Italy Final Q2 GDP Y/Y 0.2% vs. 0.9% expected and 0.6% prior.Italy Final Q2 GDP Q/Q 0.9% vs. 0.2% expected and 0.3% prior. No changes to the preliminary report. This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at www.forexlive.com.

OPEC+ has been on a push for compliance for the past two weeks and it looks to have achieved some success. There could be something of a carrot/stick approach here with other producers perhaps extending cuts in October. WTI is now trading flat on the day. This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

PMI falls to 48.5, lowest since August 2022New orders and production decline acceleratesCost inflation hits 21-month high, driven by raw material shortages and peso depreciationJob shedding continues for fourth straight monthEmployment decreased for the fourth monthExport sales saw a substantial drop, particularly from US customers The Mexican manufacturing sector took another hit in August, with

Prior 44.0 Despite a positive revision, the figure is still a mild drop compared to the July reading. That continues to mark a poor state of affairs for French manufacturing in Q3. HCOB notes that: “The state of the French manufacturing sector is deteriorating. What seemed like a recovery of the industrial sector at the

Headlines: Weekly update on interest rates expectationsA growing rift at the ECB on the economic outlook?SNB total sight deposits w.e. 30 August CHF 456.7 bn vs CHF 463.6 bn priorItaly Q2 final GDP 0.2% vs 0.2% Q/Q expectedEurozone August final manufacturing PMI 45.8 vs 45.6 prelimSwitzerland August manufacturing PMI 49.0 vs 43.5 expectedUK August final

ANZ-Indeed Job Ads fell for the 7th consecutive month in August to be down 15.3% so far in 2024. Earlier: Australian data – Q2 Business Inventories +0.1% (expected -0.1%, prior +1.3%)Australian July Building Permits +10.4% m/m (2.5% expected) AUD update, not doing a lot on the barrage of data releases: This article was written by

Domestic sight deposits CHF 448.6 bn vs CHF 455.7 bn prior This will be an interesting spot to watch after the SNB commented on the franc perhaps being a little too strong. The drop in the past week is certainly not suggestive of that but we’ll see how the trend develops in the coming weeks

Happy Monday, especially for those of you who get the day off. It’s Labor Day and that means that markets are closed in the United States and Canada. The FX market has been quiet throughout the world today, with the exception of JPY trading and some NZD weakness. I expected to see more oil softness

Eurostoxx flatGermany DAX +0.1%France CAC 40 flatUK FTSE -0.1%Spain IBEX flatItaly FTSE MIB flat Given that it is a North American holiday today, there won’t be much to stir up the appetite in markets. All eyes will be on the jobs-related data from the US in the days ahead. So, expect it to be a

There isn’t anything major to take note of for today. And that is understandable, given a holiday for North American markets. So, technically the week only really kicks into gear tomorrow. We’ll have jobs-related data from the US to work through during the week. So, markets might not stay quiet for too long in the

Final Manufacturing PMI 42.4 vs. 42.1 expected and 43.2 prior. Key findings: HCOB Germany Manufacturing PMI at 42.4 (Jul: 43.2). 5-month low. HCOB Germany Manufacturing PMI Output Index at 42.8 (Jul: 42.5). 2-month high. New orders drop at quickest rate for nine months. Comment: Commenting on the PMI data, Dr. Cyrus de la Rubia, Chief

Fundamental Overview Gold continues to trade in a tight range as the market awaits the key catalysts this week. As a reminder, the Fed is now very focused on the labour market as Fed Chair Powell said that they will not welcome any more weakness and will do everything they can to keep it strong.

WSJ Fedwatcher Nick Timiraos is out with his latest and it’s upbeat on the disinflation process: Decomposing the July PCE shows disinflation over the last three months continues to be relatively broad-based: • sequential improvement for housing and nonhousing services • continued deflation in goods This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

Japanese corporate spending on plant and equipment surged in the second quarter: Japan Q2 business capex +7.4% y/y (vs. expected +9.9%, prior +6.8%) Analyst takes I’m seeing are noting the data is fuelling optimism for a domestic-led recovery and bolstering the case for more interest rate hikes from the Bank of Japan in the coming

Preconditions for EDIS are now met, and moving forward will be importantLegislators should resist the temptation to relax banking regulationProfit levels are relatively high, which provides a good opportunity for banks to invest in strengthening resilience EDIS is European Deposit Insurance Scheme. It’s a proposed EU-level insurance system intended to protect depositors in case a

Australia Final manufacturing PMI from Judo Bank / S&P Global for August 2024, comes in at the highest level in three months @ 48.5 prior 47.5 Flash reading here: Australia preliminary August PMI: Manufacturing 48.7(prior 47.5) Services 52.2(prior 50.4) Commentary from the report, in summary: not a manufacturing recession, but an extended soft landingcapacity constraints

The dollar battled in month-end trading last week and that kept a lid on AUD/USD, with sellers also holding at the July high around the figure level. The key level there will remain a focus this week, especially with the dollar side of the equation set to come under heavy scrutiny. It’s all about jobs-related

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German DAX futures flatUK FTSE futures +0.3% The risk mood is not up to much with overall conditions keeping more lightly changed. It is the same in the major currencies space, with the dollar keeping within 15 pips change against the rest of the bloc. With it being a US and Canadian holiday, expect a

Over the weekend we had the official PMIs: China August Manufacturing PMI 49.1 (expected 49.5), Services 50.3 (expected 50.0) More detail: ICYMI – China’s official August manufacturing PMI fell to its lowest since February The private, Caixin S&P Global manufacturing PMI is much better, coming in at 50.4. From the report, in summary: Demand picked

Good morning, afternoon and evening all. Any charts, technical analysis, trade ideas, thoughts, views, ForexLive traders would like to share and discuss with fellow ForexLive traders, please do so: This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

Thats an impressive result, well above estimate. This data can be volatile though, depending on multi-unit approvals. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

Prior 45.8 The positive revision is just masking the troubles that are continuing to surface in the Eurozone manufacturing sector. Output continues to suffer while new order inflows fell at the quickest pace this year so far in August. Employment conditions are also starting to be impacted with business confidence sliding to a five-month low.

Australia Melbourne Institute Inflation August 2024 -0.1% m/m (prior 0.4%), its first drop in 6 months and 2.5% y/y for a three-year low (prior 2.8%) Trimmed mean inflation gauge flat m/m in August lowest in 10 monthsand 2.2% y/y, a 32-month low of 2.2% (vs. 2.6% prior) Lower CPI numbers welcome, but we’ll have to

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As is usual for a Monday morning, market liquidity is very thin until it improves as more Asian centres come online … prices are liable to swing around, so take care out there. Indicative rates, little change from late Friday: EUR/USD 1.1046USD/JPY 146.18GBP/USD 1.3128USD/CHF 0.8497USD/CAD 1.3492AUD/USD 0.6769NZD/USD 0.6249 This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan

China’s EU Mission responding to the EU remarks about South China Sea dispute: European Union is not a party to the South China Sea issue and has no right to point fingers on the issueThe European side’s repeated ‘speculation’ on the freedom of navigation issue does not do any good to the EU’s own interests

Today is going to be a synthetic Sunday as we have the US on holiday and we don’t have major market moving releases. In fact, we will just get the final manufacturing PMIs throughout the European session. We might see the rangebound price action from last week continue today as we await the first big

CNBC had the snippet on Friday on Goldman Sachs ramping up their estimate for US economic growth this quarter. The investment bank boosted its Q3 GDP tracking estimate by 0.2pp to 2.7%, q/q annualized. GS cited an improved outlook for consumer spending. This followed a jump for incomes and expenditures: Personal income +0.3% vs +0.2%