Prior month -0.1% revised to -0.4%Construction spending for June -0.3% versus 0.2% expected Total Construction: June 2024 construction spending: $2,148.4 billion (seasonally adjusted annual rate)Decrease from May 2024: -0.3% Increase from June 2023 YoY: +6.2% First six months of 2024 spending: $1,034.8 billionIncrease from first six months of 2023: 8.6%. The same 6-month period in […]

I did a double take on that result, back into contraction again after a good June. A huge miss on expectations. This is its first contraction in 9 months and points to embedded trouble in the Chinese economy. This PMI has been outperforming the official PMI and offered a sliver of hope, but now both

The Atlanta Fed GDPNow growth estimate for Q3 came in at 2.5% from 2.8% previously. It is early in the quarter, so the growth will evolve. However, the first move is lower: The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the third quarter of 2024 is 2.5 percent on August

The dollar is still reeling from the more dovish Fed yesterday, especially Powell’s press conference. September looks to be a done deal barring any major surprises in the economy in the next six weeks. USD/JPY in particular is feeling the pinch after the BOJ hiked rates yesterday, with the pair settling below 150.00 currently. The

Headlines: BOE cuts bank rate by 25 bps to 5.00% in knife-edge callBOE governor Bailey: This was a finely balanced decisionBailey Q&A: We will make our judgements based on evidence from meeting to meetingUSD/JPY catches a bounce back above 150.00 for now10-year Treasury yields eye 4% mark next following post-Fed dropNasdaq Technical Analysis – Road

The market isn’t holding back. Bonds are rampaging higher and the Fed funds futures market is sensing deeper and quicker cuts. September Fed funds now price in a 16% chance of a 50 bps cut and cuts are nearly fully priced in at the next five meetings, running through March 2025. Pricing for June 2025

Yesterday we had disappointing PMIs from China: China July 2024 Official Manufacturing PMI 49.4 (expected 49.4) China has two primary Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) surveys – the official PMI released by the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) and the Caixin China PMI published by the media company Caixin and research firm Markit / S&P Global.

BOEs Pill: We are not committing to further interest rate cutsThere will be bumps in the road on inflation ahead Comments are consistent from comments from BOEs Bailey. This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

US stocks open with gains in the major indices. Meta Platforms beat and gave positive guidance as well. Shares are trading up over 9% at the open. A snapshot of the market is currently showing: Dow Industrial Average average is trading up 227.75 points or 0.54% at 41065.58S&P index is up 23.16 points or 0.42%

The BoE statement is due at 1100 GMT / 0700 US Eastern time. A 25bp rate cut is the consensus estimate. Bank of England Governor Bailey speaks at 1130 GMT / 0730 US Eastern time. Communications from the Bak have been light, but the cut is expected to win by a small majority of votes

Fundamental Overview The USD has been rallying steadily against most major currencies in the recent couple of weeks, although the catalyst behind the move has been unclear. A good argument has been that most of the moves we’ve been seeing were driven by deleveraging from strengthening Yen. Basically, the squeeze on the carry trades impacted

There is arguably just one to take note of on the day, as highlighted in bold. That being for EUR/USD at the 1.0850 level. That could help to draw in price action with the 200-hour moving average seen nearby at 1.0847 currently. But if anything else, it should keep things more contained at least until

The figures are from Japan’s Ministry of Finance for the June 27-July 29. You’ll recall highs for USD/JPY over 161.75 during that period. I’m not sure its correct to say ‘spent’ … given USD/JPY is now under 150 I’d say ‘shrewd investment’ 😉 What a load of malarkey it all was. Why didn’t the Bank

That is to be expected as the bloc is set to continue with the current policy stance before unwinding some of the production cuts later in October. Carry on as you will. This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

o Families have spoken to loved ones after release from Russia16 prisoners have been released. 4 American, 5 Germans and 7 Russian citizens held wrongly Allies made bold and brace decisions as part of this dealsAllies matter.Russian political prisoners included in the deal stood up for democracy and human rights. Other details: Russia frees Wall

This is 15 straight months of contraction. Prior was 49.3Canadian manufacturing sector deteriorates at fastest pace in 7 monthsBusiness confidence hits lowest level since May 2020Input cost inflation remains solid but below trendSupply chain delays worsen, especially for sea freightNew orders fell sharply, with exports down the most since May 2020 Commenting on the latest

Today’s Market Overview The stock market today presents a varied landscape with noticeable leadership from the healthcare and technology sectors. Let’s delve into the sectors, big movers, and the macro trends influencing investor sentiment and strategies. Healthcare Sector Takes the Lead Marked by Eli Lilly’s impressive jump of 3.75%, the healthcare sector shines brightly in

Prior 52.3 A sign of change for the Spanish manufacturing sector? Perhaps. Output was higher on the month but orders declined, leading to just a marginal growth in July. But at least employment conditions are holding up well and the outlook remains fairly optimistic. HCOB notes that: “The wind in Spain’s manufacturing sector appears to

Prior month 48.5Prices paid 52.9 versus 52.1 priorEmployment 43.4 versus 49.3 last monthNew orders 47.4 versus 49.3 last monthProduction 45.9 versus 48.5 last monthSupplier deliveries 52.6 versus 49.8 last monthInventories 44.5 versus 45.4 last month.Backlog of orders 41.7 versus 41.7 last monthNew export orders 49.0 versus 48.8 last monthImports 48.6 versus 48.5 last month This

The market is getting a dose of bad (weak) economic data today. In the past when inflation was higher, bad was good as traders saw it as a slowing of the economy and with it inflation. WIth inflation more tame / lower, and the Fed more focused on both jobs AND inflation, the deluge of

In particular, EUR/USD is starting to invite a technical break to the downside now: The pair is down 0.4% to 1.0785 currently, threatening a break under 1.0800 and more notably its 100-day moving average (red line) of 1.0792. The drop today sees price now touch fresh lows in four weeks. Besides that, we’ve also seen

Prior 45.8 The revision to the headline reading sees it unchanged for the month of July, even as the output index declines to a seven-month low. Employment conditions also experienced a decline and there were further drops in purchasing activity and inventories, while business confidence weakened to a four-month low. HCOB notes that: “The widely

The dips in the USDCAD continue to hold support in the 1.3784 to 1.3803 area, but overhead resistance near the April high at 1.38448 is now an upside hurdle to get to and through. If the support is broken, I would expect the buyers to turn to sellers as they give up on the upside

Prior was +4.0% (revised to +3.8%)Productivity +2.3% vs +1.7% expectedPrior productivity +0.2% (revised to +0.4%) These numbers are so hard to calculate. This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

There were worries about too much of a good thing yesterday as everything shot higher. Those worries are looking well-founded as markets turn lower in a big way. The Nasdaq is down 1% and the Russell 2000 down 3% as early gains reverse. Treasury yields are down 13-8 bps led by the front end. Today’s

Services price inflation and domestic inflation pressures remain elevatedThere might be a slight rise in services price inflation in August, before easing for the rest of the yearWatching services prices very carefullyShould not adjust our course with every data surprise that comes inThere is still a question on whether persistent component of inflation can return

It was a tough start to the new month in Europe, similar to heavy selling in Japan. Closing changes: Stoxx 600 +1.3%German DAX +2.3%UK FTSE 100 +1.1%French CAC +2.2%Italy MIB -2.6%Spain IBEX -2.0% BMW shares were beaten up today after earnings and German stocks are now testing the July lows. This article was written by

The losses are coming in fast in the last one hour, with GBP/USD falling from 1.2845 to a low of 1.2790 on the day. This is a move tied mostly to the pound, with EUR/GBP also now up 0.4% to 0.8450. It’s all about the BOE decision later in the day and this seems to

Prior +0.2% House price growth continues to push up slightly after the rebound since May with annual house prices now seen up 2.1% compared to the same month a year ago. That said, overall housing market activity remains on the mend as higher borrowing costs are still weighing. This article was written by Justin Low

Prior 45.4 It is a marginal revision lower as the French manufacturing sector slumped further in July. Of note, production, new orders and employment all decreased at faster rates. Besides that, input cost inflation accelerated further to its highest in a year-and-a-half. HCOB notes that: “French manufacturing isn’t recovering soon. In July, the headline HCOB

July 31, 2024 Federal Reserve issues FOMC statement For release at 2:00 p.m. EDT Recent indicators suggest that economic activity has continued to expand at a solid pace. Job gains have moderated, and the unemployment rate has moved up but remains low. Inflation has eased over the past year but remains somewhat elevated. In recent

Labor market is ‘strong but not overheated’ and about where it was pre-pandemicLonger-term inflation expectations appear to be well anchoredUnemployment rate remains lowLabor market has cooled, inflation has declined and risks have moved into better balanceAttentive to both sides of dual mandateQ2 inflation readings have added to confidence on inflationNeed greater confidence on inflationWe will

The Kickstart video for August 1 take a technical look at the 3 major currency pairs – the EURUSD, USDJPY and GBPUSD. The EURUSD moved lower in sympathy with the GBPUSD before the BOE rate decision. THe BOE did cut rates by 25 basis points by the smallest of margins (5 for, and 4 against

As the North American session begins, the CHF is a stronger and the GBP is the weakest. The Bank of England (BOE) became the latest central bank to cut rates after reducing its bank rate by 25 basis points to 5.00% in a decision marked by close voting, with the vote split at 4-0-5. The

Slightly better than expected trade surplus. AUD/USD is around 0.6545 and not a lot changed on the session. USD/JPY is now under 149.00! This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

US-based employers announced 25,885 job cuts in July, which is roughly a little over 9% higher compared to the same month a year ago. This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

BOE will decide appropriate degree of restrictiveness at each meetingNot giving any view on the path of rates to come (when asked about a “one and done”)We will go from meeting to meeting, making judgement based on evidenceDoes not want to comment on market curve on rate cuts It doesn’t look like he will want

The FOMC statement didn’t offer up too much but the minor changes are still a small step towards making a change on rates. The most notable thing was highlighting “risks to both sides of the dual mandate”. It doesn’t sound exactly dovish but it is consistent with the Fed’s motives of starting to change things

Reuters with the headline, citing sources familiar with the matter. That said, no policy change is still expected from the meeting so the reason for the delay is not believed to be anything untoward. From earlier: OPEC+ reportedly to stick with output policy in latest meeting today This article was written by Justin Low at

Prior week 235Kinitial jobless claims 249K versus 236K estimate. Highest level since last year this time4-week moving average of initial jobless claims 238K vs 235.50K last week.Continuing claims 1.877M versus 1.856M estimate. Prior week continuing jobless claims 1.851M revised to 1.844M4-week moving average of continuing claims 1.857M vs 1.852M last week WIth both the initial

Fundamental Overview The Nasdaq has been on a steady decline since the last US CPI report on July 11th. In the first stages of the pullback, we’ve been seeing a rotation from big cap stocks into small cap stocks as the Russell 2000 displayed an opposite price action. Eventually, the bearish momentum picked up and

Bank of England Chief Economist Pill speaks on ThursdayMarubeni CFO says expects a limited impact from the Bank of Japan rate hikeChina’s State Planner Vice Head says will actively expand domestic demandJapan chief cabinet secretary Hayashi says important for FX to more in stable mannerBank of England meet Thursday, rate cut expected, but a ‘hawkish’

Marubeni CFO: Expect limited impact on financing costs from BOJ’s rate hikeThe yen’s depreciation turning to appreciation due to monetary policies in Japan and US was as we had expectedWeaker yen against US Dollar and Australian dollar in April-June period contributed about 9 bln yen to profit USD/JPY update, another volatile day: Marubeni Corporation is

Prior 5.25%Bank rate vote 4-0-5 vs 4-0-5 expected (Pill, Mann, Haskel, Greene dissented to keep rates on hold)Decision was “finely balanced”Domestic inflationary persistence is expected to fade away over the next few yearsThere is a risk that inflationary pressures from second-round effects will be more enduring in the medium-termNeed to be careful not to cut

Prior 6.4% The jobless rate in the euro area ticks a little higher again at the end of Q2, matching the figure back in March and in the same month a year ago. As a whole, labour market conditions are still holding up but there have been tentative signs of softness creeping in. This article

Analysts at JPM were tipping a September rate cut, and still do. They expect cuts each quarter to follow. But … they add that there is a risk of a rate cut at every meeting “if the unemployment situation continues to deteriorate”. —- Sheesh, how bad do they expect it to get??? This article was

Oil surged in the hours following the news yesterday: Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh was killed in TehranHamas says that the assassination of Ismail Haniyeh is a dangerous escalation Eyes are on the Middle East in the wake of this news, and oil gained ground. Separately, a report from Bank of America says: “Oil prices have

There are no notable releases in the European session as we just get the Final readings of the PMIs. The focus will be mainly on the BoE Policy Decision where the expectations are skewed for a rate cut. In the American session, we have the US Jobless Claims, the Canadian Manufacturing PMI and the US

Underlying inflation is expected to increase graduallyFirms’ behavior has shifted more toward raising wages and prices, as per the spring wage negotiationsBaseline scenario is that virtuous cycle between wages and prices is projected to keep intensifyingBut there remain uncertainties regarding this outlookNeed to carefully monitor factors such as firms’ wage and price-setting behaviourMoves to reflect

The Bank of England meeting precedes Pill: Bank of England meet Thursday, rate cut expected, but a ‘hawkish’ cut Pill is speaking from 1615 GMT / 1215 US Eastern time: takes part in an online Q&A about the central bank’s quarterly Monetary Policy Report, released earlier in the day This article was written by Eamonn

Manufacturing PMI 47.4 vs. 46.1 expected and 45.7 prior. Key findings: Softer contractions recorded for new orders and production. Strongest input price inflation since late 2022. Lowest confidence levels this year so far. Comment: Commenting on the PMI data, Dr Tariq Kamal Chaudhry Economist at Hamburg Commercial Bank, said: “The Italian industry is on a

Scanning for news – not seeing anything of note. Is this politics related? This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

The March low at 4.038% is holding somewhat for now. But looking at things, it’s all about the 4% mark from a psychological perspective when it comes to 10-year yields. That especially after the Fed more or less sealed the deal for a September rate cut yesterday. The move lower over the last few months

The big week of earnings continues today with Meta reporting after the bell. We will also get results from Arm, Qualcomm, Carvana, Lam Research, Western Digital and more. Tomorrow after the close we get Amazon, Apple and Intel. Tech stocks rallied massively today including: NVDA +12.5%AVGO +11.3%TSLA +4%META +2.3% Microsoft also trimmed a 7% loss

Final Manufacturing PMI 52.1 vs. 51.8 expected and 50.9 prior. Key findings: Production growth fastest since February 2022. Input price inflation rises to 18-month high. Comment: Rob Dobson, Director at S&P Global Market Intelligence: “UK manufacturing has started the second half of 2024 on an encouragingly solid footing. July saw growth of production and new

FOMC interest rate decision: Rates unchanged but statement highlights dual risksFull statement from July 2024 FOMC rate decisionPowell: We have made no decisions about September but broad sense is we’re moving closerPowell opening statement: Labor market is ‘strong but not overheated’ADP July employment 122K vs 150K expectedUS Q2 employment cost index +0.9% vs +1.0% expectedCanada

German DAX futures flatUK FTSE futures +0.3% European indices ended more mixed though but the general mood in equities is a better one after the Wall Street rally. That owed much to tech stocks though, as the Dow was only up by 0.2% to close out July trading. But so far, US futures are also

Headline via Reuters: Ukraine’s government invokes moratorium law, will suspend foreign debt payments starting August 1 – resolution This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

China’s State Planner Vice Head: There is ‘sufficient’ room for counter-cyclical policy adjustmentsChina has conditions, ability and confidence to achieve full-year growth targetWill actively expand domestic demand, putting consumption boost in a more striking positionwill promote effective investment – I think the reference to “counter-cyclical policy adjustments” is about the economy as a whole, Keynesian

The info comes from noted China analyst Michael Pettis via twitter: Henan province announced its consolidation plans on Sunday, naming 25 institutions to be merged into a provincial-level rural commercial bank. And goes on: This of course was inevitable. That its taken so long is a negative. That its finally happening is a positive. This

Gundlach spoke in an interview with US media, CNBC. Headlines via Reuters: Says a lot of room for the fed to cut short term interest rates Fed should have cut todayThink we have a 150 bp of cuts coming, certainly in a year from nowSays still believe 2 yr, 3 yr, 5 yr Treasuries are

For some context, OPEC+ will be holding an online JMMC meeting later today at 1000 GMT. According to the report, no changes to the current plan is likely. That means the bloc will continue its current deal and only start unwinding some of the output cuts starting from October. This article was written by Justin

Good morning, afternoon and evening all. Any charts, technical analysis, trade ideas, thoughts, views, ForexLive traders would like to share and discuss with fellow ForexLive traders, please do so: This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

Qualcomm reported strong earnings and Meta boosted its capex estimate this year. Meta followed that up by saying it expects ‘significant’ capex growth in 2025. The gold rush mentality in the AI race is unrelenting. We heard the same from Microsoft yesterday and that’s eased fears of a pullback in chip spending and led to

The volatility swings are continuing in the pair and the latest move here is part of that. Treasury yields remain on the softer side with 10-year yields at 4.058%, so this isn’t really tied to that. Looking at the chart, the bounce does come after price tested the 61.8 Fib retracement level of the swing

The USDJPY is moving back toward its low for the day as yields move lower. The 2-year is now down -7.3 basis points at 4.286%. The 10 year yield is down -6.9 basis points at 4.072%. Looking at the 4- hour chart, the move lower has price testing the high of a swing area at

The tensions in the Middle East have been escalating significantly in the past week. And that is seeing the situation involving Israel and Hamas moving into unprecedented territory. In response, the geopolitical uncertainty finally caught up with markets yesterday. Oil had a standout day in particular, with WTI crude rising by over 4%. That helped

Terms of trade data from Australia for Q2 2024 Import Prices +1.0% q/q expected -0.7%, prior -1.8% Export Prices -5.9% q/q expected -5.3%, prior -2.1% This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

Iran has more leaks than the Bank of Japan. I’m not sure how they expect to get anything done when they’re letting people get assassinated in a military compound and leaking military orders to the New York Times. That said, this might be another one of those ‘face saving’ drills where they lob some drones

The Bank of Japan hiked yesterday: ForexLive European FX news wrap: Yen surges as BOJ hikes policy rate to 0.25% And the Federal Reserve gave hints a rate cut was coming in September: Forexlive Americas FX news wrap: What a day, it had everything USD/JPY tumbled (it did so prior to the BoJ on the

The People’s Bank of China set the onshore yuan (CNY) reference rate for the trading session ahead. USD/CNY is the onshore yuan. Its permitted to trade plus or minus 2% from this daily reference rate.CNH is the offshore yuan. USD /CNH has no restrictions on its trading range.A significantly stronger or weaker rate than expected

Fed says it’s attentive to risks on both sides of the mandate, a change from previous text that said it was highly attentive to inflation risksIn recent moths there has been ‘some’ further progress to 2% inflation goal vs ‘modest’ further progress previouslySays inflation remains ‘somewhat elevated’Economy continues to expand at ‘solid’ pace, job gains

Japan chief cabinet secretary Hayashi: Japan appoints former top fx diplomat Masato Kanda to special advisor to cabinetKanda tasked to advise Japan PM Kishida on international financial trends Hayashi adds: Won’t comment on forex levelsImportant for currencies to move in stable manner reflecting fundamentals Closely watching fx moves thoroughly Meanwhile USD/JPY is around 149.20, after

There were 68.4 basis points of cuts priced in for the Fed this year ahead of the FOMC decision. That’s risen to 72.4 bps since, likely in response to Powell saying that he could envisions anything from ‘several’ rate cuts this year to zero. Pricing for June 2025 has also moved up to 157 bps

What a day in equity markets. Nvidia climbed 14% (and is up further after hours) in the largest one-day gain in market cap in history. Beyond that, it was a huge day in general and particularly for chipmakers after Microsoft said it would spend more in capex next year than this year (and Meta said

People’s Bank of China USD/CNY reference rate is due around 0115 GMT. The People’s Bank of China (PBOC), China’s central bank, is responsible for setting the daily midpoint of the yuan (also known as renminbi or RMB). The PBOC follows a managed floating exchange rate system that allows the value of the yuan to fluctuate

South Korean finance minister Says will swiftly act according to contingency plans to stabilize financial markets if neededMonitoring Middle East tensions, US electionSays will focus on risk management related to household debt, project financeWill devise more liquidity support measures for online commerce platforms if needed This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

I find it hard to believe that it’s truly possible to keep chips out of China. Reports out of Russia suggest you can still get anything there despite extremely harsh sanctions. The opportunities to smuggle and trans-ship are too high. This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

June 12July 31, 2024 Federal Reserve issues FOMC statement For release at 2:00 p.m. EDT Recent indicators suggest that economic activity has continued to expand at a solid pace. Job gains have remained strongmoderated, and the unemployment rate has remainedmoved up but remains low. Inflation has eased over the past year but remains somewhat elevated.

S&P Global / Jibun Bank Japanese Manufacturing PMI for July 2024 comes in at 49.1 first time under 50 (and into contraction) in 3 monthsprior 50.0, preliminary 49.2 In summary: There was a significant reduction in new orders, leading to a sharp decline in production levels.Input price inflation reached its highest since April 2023, driven

The Wall Street Journal is gated, but here is the link of you can access it: Fed Clears Path for September Interest Rate Cut Officials held rates steady, but made an important pivot by highlighting a more equal focus on employment and inflation goals The gist of it is: While Powell and his colleagues didn’t

The NASDAQ index is up over 520 points. The price is currently up 520 points or 3.04% at 17667. The NASDAQ is above its 50-hour moving average and also stretching above the 38.2% retracement of the last move lower at 17647.85. On the topside, the 100-hour moving average and 50% retracement are near 17840. Meanwhile,

Before and After the FOMC decision (2:08 PM ET): US yields have moved marginally higher: 2-year yield went from 4.367% to 4.379%, +1.2 basement5-year yield went from 4.021% to 4.034%, +1.3 basis points10 year yield went from 4.112% to 4.127%, +1.5 basis points30-year yield one from 4.361% to 4.373%, +1.2 basis points US stocks are

A reduction in our policy rate could be on the table as soon as our next meetingIf we were to see inflation moving down quickly or more-or-less in-line with expectations then I would think a rate cut could be on the table in SeptIf inflation were to prove stickier, then we would weigh that along

In the kickstart video for July 31, I take a look at the three major currency pairs – the EURUSD, USDJPY and GBPUSD – from a technical perspective. The USDJPY is down sharply after the Bank of Japan did raise rates by 50 basis points to 0.25% and decreased the bond buying to ¥3 trillion.

Semiconductors Surge Ahead in Today’s Trading Session Today’s stock market is a vibrant canvas of greens with semiconductor stocks and major tech companies like Nvidia (NVDA) and Alphabet (GOOG) charting notable gains. In an impressive show, Nvidia is currently up by 8.27%, demonstrating investor confidence and perhaps response to recent positive industry developments or financial

The EURUSD has continued its move to the downside and currently is printing new session lows for the day and testing the 50% midpoint of the move up from the June 26 low. Earlier today, the low price reached 1.08059. The 50% midpoint comes in 1.08061. The price just reached a new day low of

Bibi is on the wires: Israel has delivered a crushing blow to Iranian proxiesIsrael will exact a heavy price for any aggression towards it from anywhereIsrael faces challenging days Ismail Haniyeh’s most likely successor is Khaled Mashal, his deputy-in-exile who lives in Qatar, analysts and Hamas officials told Reuters. Mashal narrowly survived an attempt on

Risk assets and commodities in general are doing well today so that’s a portion of the $3 gain in crude today but it’s certainly not the whole story. WTI crude oil is up 3.9% to $77.64 in its best day in six weeks. What’s driving it? The Israel assassination of the Hamas political leader in

Looking at the details: Overall livelihood: 34.5 (previously 33.8)Income growth: 40.4 (previously 40.6) Employment: 42.0 (previously 41.7) Willingness to buy durable goods: 30.0 (previously 29.6) This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

Goldman Sachs anticipates that recent trends in economic data will lead the FOMC to revise its statement in ways that suggest a rate cut in September is becoming more likely. Key Points: Acknowledgement of Unemployment: Expected Change: The statement may acknowledge the recent increase in the unemployment rate while continuing to note that it remains

I find it’s always a good idea to re-read the prior FOMC statement just before the new one is released. From June 12: Recent indicators suggest that economic activity has continued to expand at a solid pace. Job gains have remained strong, and the unemployment rate has remained low. Inflation has eased over the past

The NASDAQ index has surged to the upside today ahead of the FOMC rate decision. However there has been a slowing of the run higher near the 50 day moving average at 17581.79. The last two tests of that moving average over the last five trading days have also found willing sellers near the level.

China’s central bank is set to move its one-year liquidity injection date to the 25th of each month, starting as early as August, according to sources cited by Bloomberg. This change, part of a broader policy framework overhaul, aims to decouple the Medium-term Lending Facility from the Loan Prime Rates. Highlights of the article: MLF

The Australia Q2 CPI report and BOJ monetary policy decision are already some big events for traders to work with. But there’s still much more to follow in the sessions ahead. In Europe, there will be the Eurozone July flash CPI report although it might not be that big a deal. But in US trading

The AUDUSD moved lower in the Asia-Pacific session after weaker core inflation in Australia tamed some of the fears of a rate hike next week when the Reserve Bank of Australia meets. The subsequent low price extended to a swing area between 0.6475 and 0.6486 where buyers entered (see red number circles on the chart

New Zealand Building Consents slump -13.8% m/m (prior -1.7% )-24% y/y Stats NZ today: “The number of homes consented in the year ended June 2024 has fallen to levels last seen five years ago” This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

The Bank of Japan statement is expected sometime in the 0230 to 0330 GMT time window this is 2230 – 2330 US Eastern time The Bank don’t have a firmly scheduled time for their policy announcements. Overnight was a leak: BOJ to discuss hike to 0.25% – reportAnother Bank of Japan leak says 0.25% is

Prior was -2.1%Index at 74.3 vs 70.8 prior (revised to 70.9) Strength was broad-based with the midwest, south and west all growing strongly. It’s a rare recent sign of life in the housing market, though the chart highlights how far the index has fallen. This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

Shares of Mastercard are 2.7% higher pre-market after reporting earnings and revenues that beat expectations. More importantly, the company highlighted that it wasn’t seeing a slowdown from consumers. Revenues of 7.00 billion compared to 6.85 billion expected and earnings were $3.59 vs $3.51 expected. We delivered another strong quarter across all aspects of our business

Happy Fed day. We’re just two hours from the rate decision but the market isn’t expecting any big drama. The derivatives market is 97% priced for no change from the 5.25-5.50% Fed funds target rate. Eyes are on September, where 27.6 basis points of cuts are priced in, or a full rate cut with a

It’s a huge day coming up in Asia. The big focus is the Bank of Japan, the latest scuttlebutt shoved ‘risk’ lower and yen higher on Tuesday: BOJ to discuss hike to 0.25% – reportAnother Bank of Japan leak says 0.25% is under considerationNikkei reiterates the worst kept secret. BOJ considering hike to 0.25%Forexlive Americas

It’s a blockbuster day in the US but more of a mixed picture in Europe. Closing changes: Stoxx 600 +0.8%German DAX +0.5%UK FTSE 100 +1.0%French CAC +0.75%Italy MIB -0.5%Spain IBEX -1.2% Those are some big divergences in Europe and are particularly stark with the S&P 500 up 1.7%. Chalk it up to month-end. This article

A quick round of selling pressure has hit the euro ahead of the month-end London fix. In general, these moves fade after the turn of the hour. This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

Reuters have a piece posted that is a pretty good run down if you want another preview. Earlier: Bank of America expect a Bank of Japan rate hike today … see USD/JPY to (eventually) 145Bank of Japan Decision Day: Will Rates Rise or Hold Steady? Overnight was leaky: BOJ to discuss hike to 0.25% –

The USDCHF did move lower and to a new low going back to March today after the lower Employment Cost data. The move lower did fall below the 50% of the move up from the December 2023 low at 0.8777. Recall from last week, the price based against that level and bounced. Today, the sellers

That is very much expected and it reflects the 15 bps increase by the BOJ on their policy rate earlier here. But it is of course the first time they’re raising the rate in 17 years. So, a significant moment perhaps. Meanwhile, MUFG as a whole are only going to be raising the rates of

The USDCAD moved lower in the early US session today, helped by lower employment cost data. The pair may also shift the focus to the FOMC from the BOC. Recall, the BOC did cut for the 2nd consecutive meeting last week. Oil price are also higher today after persistent weakness. Technically, the pair moved back

The Canadian dollar is strengthening today with the help of a few tailwinds: WTI crude oil is up $2.43 to $77.17, largely on geopolitical tailwinds but US inventories also tightenedUS equities are ripping higher in a pro-risk move, with the Nasdaq up 2.5% as we near month endThe Fed decision today is likely to signal

The period between New York close and Tokyo open is the thinnest period of the 24 hour FX cycle. USD/JPY has kept up its swings. OVernight we had leak news: Forexlive Americas FX news wrap: Bank of Japan leaks the possibilty of 15 bps hike Since then there is nothing fresh news nor data wise.

The Bank of Japan have already told us they’ll be announcing plans to cut back on Japanese Government Bond buying. The question is if they’ll hike rates again. The chatter overnight centred on a 15bp hike: Forexlive Americas FX news wrap: Bank of Japan leaks the possibilty of 15 bps hike Bank of Japan Governor

Prior was 150K (revised to 155K)Annual pay growth for job-stayers slowed to 4.8%, lowest in 3 years, down from 5.0% priorJob-changers’ pay gains dropped to 7.2% from 7.7% More details: Goods-producing sectors added 37K jobs, with construction leading at +39KServices sectors added 85K, led by trade/transportation/utilities at +61KProfessional/business services saw notable job losses of -37K

The main event in the European session will be the release of the Eurozone July Flash CPI report. In the American session, we will get the US ADP, the Canadian GDP, the US Q2 Employment Cost Index, the Treasury Refunding Announcement and finally the FOMC Policy Decision. 09:00 GMT – Eurozone July Flash CPI The

Business confidence has a huge jump to 27.1% prior 6.1 Activity outlook 16.3%, also higher prior 12.2 ANZ’s Key points Business confidence jumped 21 points to +27 in July, and expected own activity lifted 4 points to +16. To be fair, these up/down responses are relative to an ever-weaker starting point (past own activity dropped

The major US stock indices are opening higher ahead of the FOMC rate decision at 2 PM ET. The employment cost data came in a little bit weaker than expectations at 0.9% versus 1.0%. The market is shrugging off the so-so earnings from Microsoft although it started is down -1.4%. Meta Platforms is on deck

Better than expected retail trade results for the y/y. The m/m is lower than the prior. Mixed results for this data following recent wage gains. I doubt the BoJ is paying too much attention to today’s data but this is probably indicative of on hold given its mixed nature. This article was written by Eamonn

Prior +2.2%HICP +2.6% vs +2.7% y/y expectedPrior +2.5% The readings are a marginal miss on estimates but are a touch higher compared to June. Services inflation are still a sticky point at 2.5% but at least much lower than in June, seen at 2.9% last month. This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

The JPY is the strongest and the AUD is the weakest as the North American session begins. The BOJ did hike rates to 0.25% as leaked yesterday. Meanwhile Australia’s trimmed mean CPI was weaker than expected helping to weaken the AUD. The Fed rate decision is later today as is earnings from Meta. After the

Prior -2.2%Market index 201.2 vs 209.3 priorPurchase index 132.8 vs 134.8 priorRefinance index 570.7 vs 614.9 prior30-year mortgage rate 6.82% vs 6.82% prior The drop in the past week owes much to a decline in refinancing activity but purchases activity also fell slightly. It continues to suggest a more subdued mood in the housing market

Private consumption remains solid despite inflation impact weighingWage hikes are becoming more widespreadRising wages will continue to support private consumptionDoesn’t believe rate hike will have significant negative impact on the economyDoes not have 0.50% policy rate in mind as a ceilingWill analyse impact of rate hikes up until now when considering additional rate hikes to

Fundamental Overview The S&P 500 has been on a steady decline since the last US CPI report on July 11th. In the first stages of the pullback, we’ve been seeing a rotation from big cap stocks into small cap stocks as the Russell 2000 displayed an opposite price action. Eventually, the bearish momentum picked up

Prior was -3741KGasoline -3665K vs -1043K expDistillates +1534K vs -1242K expRefinery utilization -1.5% vs +0.7% expectedProduction unchanged at 13.3 mbpd API data late yesterday showed: Crude -4495KGasoline -1917KDistillates -322K Crude is mostly moving on geopolitical risks today after the assassination of Hamas’ top political leader and the bombing attack in Beirut. This article was written

Prior +2.5%Core CPI +2.9% vs +2.8% y/y expectedPrior +2.9% The more important statistic is the core reading, and that is unchanged from June. The disinflation process in the euro area is still taking some time to progress further and that’s not helping the ECB to gain more confidence for now. We’ll see what August has

Prior month 0.3%May GDP 0.2 % vs 0.1% estimate. The Advanced GDP released with the April report was 0.1%June advanced GDP 0.1%. Construction, real estate, and rental and leasing and finance and insurance increased, with manufacturing and wholesale trade fallingServices producing industries 0.1%Good producing industries 0.4%total of 15 of 20 sectors increased in May Details

Prior was +1.2%Wages q/q +0.9% vs +1.1% priorBenefits +1.0% vs +1.1% prior This data is a bit lagged but highlights the slow softening in wages and should give the Fed more confidence that a wage-price spiral isn’t a risk. This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

This week is essential not only because of the central bank meetings (from the US, UK, and Japan) but also because of the quarterly earnings reports of the major technology companies. Results from Apple, Amazon, and Microsoft will be released, and there is always room for surprise. Investors expect these reports to exceed revenue and

The Dow rose with 10 names rising over 1.5% or more led by Travelers with a gain of 3.10%: Travelers (TRV): +3.10%Goldman Sachs (GS): +2.64%JPMorgan (JPM): +2.03%McDonald’s (MCD): +1.95%Chevron (CVX): +1.90%American Express (AXP): +1.84%Walt Disney (DIS): +1.80%UnitedHealth (UNH): +1.75%J&J (JNJ): +1.73%Dow (DOW): +1.57% But the Nasdaq was a different story ahead of some major large-

ING responding to the inflation data from Australia today: If you wanted to find a reason to leave rates unchanged at the 6 August meeting, there is some support in the core numbers published today to say, “Let’s give the economy the benefit of the doubt”. The August decision is certainly more finely balanced today

Headlines: BOJ raises policy rate to 0.25% in July monetary policy meetingBOJ governor Ueda: Weak yen was not necessarily the biggest reason for rate hikeBOJ governor Ueda says does not have 0.50% policy rate in mind as a ceilingBOJ governor Ueda: Hard to tell when the next rate hike may beUSD/JPY extends fall as downside

USD/JPY has extended today’s decline to 280 pips and more than 450 pips since the Bank of Japan floated a series of leaks about a 15 bps hike. This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

Prior +0.8%HICP +1.7% vs +1.2% y/y expectedPrior +0.9% A bit of an early release with the headlines from Reuters and confirmed here. While the headline readings are higher relative to June, core annual inflation did ease a little from 2.0% in the month before to 1.9% in July. This article was written by Justin Low

Fundamental Overview Crude oil has been under sustained pressure since the beginning of July. Analysts have been pointing to potential demand weakness under the surface and economic slack in China. The increase in Trump’s winning odds after the failed assassination attempt might have also contributed to some weakness as he’s a great supporter of the

It was the CPI that was the focus: Australian Q2 core inflation +0.8% q/q (expected 1.0%)AUD/USD has dropped under 0.6500 after core inflation comes in lower than expected The RBA will not raise its cash rate at the meeting next week, August 5 and 6. * As for the credit data, stronger on the month

Fundamental Overview The USD has been rallying steadily against most major currencies in the recent couple of weeks, although the catalyst behind the move has been unclear. A good argument has been that most of the moves we’ve been seeing were driven by deleveraging from strengthening Yen. Basically, the squeeze on the carry trades impacted

Fundamental Overview The BoJ eventually decided to hike rates by 15 bps bringing the policy rate to 0.25%. This move was expected given that the day earlier we got lots of leaks. Governor Ueda in the press conference didn’t say too much but it looks like the weak Yen was the main reason for the

more to come Manufacturing PMI 49.4 expected 49.3, prior 49.5 Services PMI 50.2 expected 50.2, prior 50.5 The Composite comes in at 50.2 prior 51.0 more to come — China has two primary Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) surveys – the official PMI released by the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) and the Caixin China PMI

China Vice Finance Minister: Will strengthen fiscal policy adjustments, deepen fiscal and tax reformsWill steadily implement consumption tax reform in step-by-step wayWill standardise management of local govts’ non-tax revenues The data from China today did not inspire confidence: China June 2024 Official Manufacturing PMI 49.4 (expected 49.4) This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at

AMD earnings: EPS $0.69 versus $0.68 estimateRevenues $5.835 billion versus $5.72 billion23 Gross margin 53.5% versus 53.85% estimatesees Q3 revenues at $6.4 billion – $7.0 billion versus $6.62 billion estimate AMD shares are currently trading up 3.16% in volatile trading This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

The index eased further on the month but keeps in positive territory, suggesting that the outlook is still moderately optimistic. UBS also noted that analysts were forming a larger consensus on the view that lower short-term rates are coming in Switzerland, the Eurozone, and the US. This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

Expects BOJ to conduct policy towards realising sustainable, stable 2% inflation targetExpects BOJ to be in close coordination with government in achieving that goal Nothing out of the ordinary there. But it seems like this latest rate hike is in part to do with trying to keep the yen in a better spot at least,

It’s make or break time for USD/JPY as sellers continue to stay in charge. The pair is now treading water below its 200-day moving average (blue line) of 151.63 and that could set up for a steeper fall to come next. The 50.0 Fib retracement level of the swing higher this year is seen at

Prior 0.0%Import prices +0.7% vs +0.5% y/y expectedPrior -0.4% The increase on the month owes much to a jump in energy prices. If yo u strip that out, import prices were actually flat in June. This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

Paris, an iconic city-break location brimming with culture, haute couture, and gourmet cuisine has grabbed the headlines as the French capital is also the world’s capital of sports this year. Hosting the 2024 Olympic Games, the capital of France is the place to be for competing athletes and global brands sponsoring the largest sporting event

Starbucks earnings: EPS $0.93 versus $0.93 expected Revenues $9.11 billion versus 9.24 pain dollars expected Starbucks CEO says three-part plan is starting to work. Despite the missed shares are still up 1% in after-hours trading Pinterest also announced earnings: EPS $0.29 versus $0.28 expectedrevenues $853.7 million versus $848.2 million The company guided lower with Q3

Well, but is he saying that it sort of did play a role in the decision today? Personally, I would think so. If they didn’t go with a rate hike today, the backlash after their intervention from earlier this month might have been quite brutal. The volatility in the yen continues to play out with

The EURJPY moved higher earlier today, breaking above the 100-hour MA (blue solid line on the chart below) in the process (currently at 166.679. The subsequent move higher extended toward the 100-day MA (step blue line on the chart below) in the Asian and early European session, but fell short of that target at 167.98.

The Japanese yen and Australian dollar have been the main movers in Asia Pacific trading today. The former owes to the BOJ decision, with the central bank hiking rates to 0.25% as expected after yesterday’s leak. Meanwhile, the latter owes to a much softer inflation report earlier – which tempers with expectations for a rate

Fundamental Overview The USD has been rallying steadily against most major currencies in the recent couple of weeks, although the catalyst behind the move has been unclear. A good argument has been that most of the moves we’ve been seeing were driven by deleveraging from strengthening Yen. Basically, the squeeze on the carry trades impacted

Major issue is where to stop raising rates when getting closer to neutral rateBut Japan is definitely far below the uncertain levels of neutral rate nowEconomic indicators to be watched include wages, inflation, service prices, GDP output gapHard to comment on FX impact of stronger yen on economy, pricesThe impact of a stronger yen compared

Prior 19kUnemployment rate 6.0% vs 6.0% expectedPrior 6.0% German unemployment rose this month but at least the jobless rate held steady. Still, it points to some added softness in the labour market as recent negative economic developments seem to be weighing. This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

Harris is the Democratic Party’s candidate for the US Presidential election. She hasn’t been confirmed as the nominee yet but its all but locked in. says will take on price gougingwill being down costs Inflation is still a focus in the US, despite its decline. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

There are just a couple to take note of, as highlighted in bold. They are for USD/JPY and in a wider range, considering the volatility in the pair as we digest the BOJ decision. There is one at 152.50 which doesn’t hold much technical significance. But it could hold price from moving too much to

German DAX futures +0.5%French CAC 40 futures +1.0%UK FTSE futures +0.5% This comes after the more positive rotation from tech to value shares in Wall Street yesterday. While the Nasdaq ended lower by 1.3%, the Dow ended higher by 0.5%. And the rebound in tech shares this morning is arguably also helping with the overall

The BOJ usually announce decisions between 0230 and 0330 GMT. Under Bank of Japan Governor Ueda its been usually earlier in that window than later. Today we’ve just ticked past 0330 GMT. The perception on this is that the longer they take, the more they have to dscisuss and the chance of a more significant

Must pay due attention to financial, FX markets and its impact on the economy, pricesUpside risks to prices require attentionJudged it to be appropriate to adjust degree of easingReal rates likely remain significantly negative, so easy conditions will keep supporting economyAppropriate to taper JGB purchases in predictable manner while ensuring stabilityWill keep raising rates, adjust

Prior 0.10%Nakamura, Noguchi dissented to decision on ratesTo taper bond purchases to ¥3 trillion as of Q1 2026That means to reduce scheduled monthly bond buying by around ¥400 billion each quarterBond tapering vote was unanimousTo review bond tapering plan in June next year via midterm reviewUnderlying inflation expected to increase graduallyJapan economy recovering moderately although

Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh was killed in TehranHere’s a forecast for a 25bp RBA rate hike next week – citing inflation not fallingChina Vice Finance Minister says will strengthen fiscal policy adjustmentsOther Australian data: Retail sales for June 0.5% m/m (expected +0.2%)Other Australian data: Private sector credit (June) 0.6% m/m (expected +0.4%)AUD/USD has dropped under

The leak overnight definitely raises the proposition of a buy the rumour, sell the fact play. But we’ll still have to let the dust settle first to be sure of anything like that. The whipsaw on the decision saw the pair fall to a low of 151.59 with the jump back hitting a high of

Eurostoxx +1.1%Germany DAX +0.7%France CAC 40 +1.2%UK FTSE +1.2%Spain IBEX flatItaly FTSE MIB +0.4% Despite a couple of stutters in the last two weeks, even the CAC 40 looks poised to end the month with gains. That speaks to the resilience in equities despite the “correction” talks as of late. S&P 500 futures are up

Earlier news was that Hamas’ political leader, Ismail Haniyeh, was killed in Iran Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh was killed in Tehran Oil is trading higher: Middle East pundits are suggesting the days ahead will see Iran-led reprisals. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

This takes a potential Reserve Bank of Australia rate hike at the August 5 and 6 meeting of The other measure of core inflation is ‘weighted median’: 0.8% q/q expected 1.0%, prior 1.0% 4.1% y/y expected 4.3%, prior 4.4% This takes a potential Reserve Bank of Australia rate hike at the August 5 and 6

Microsoft: Earnings-per-share comes in at $2.95 versus $2.93Revenues $64.7 billion versus $64.39 billionAzure cloud 29% versus 30.2% estimateIntelligent cloud $28.52 billion versus $28.72 billion expectedProductivity and business processes $20.32 billion versus $20.21 billion estimate The stock is moving lower as it’s just not good enough: Shares are down -7% in after-hours trading Amazon shares down

The data is due at 0130 GMT, 2130 US Eastern time. Sandwiched between a heap of other top-tier info releases. I posted previews of the OZ data earlier ICYMI: Three scenarios to watch for the Reserve Bank of Australia outcomeAustralia Q2 CPI preview – “June CPI should not close the door on a rate cut”

It depends on economic indicators0.25% policy rate is still extremely lowIf you think of real rates, it’s profoundly negativeWeak yen did not move our central price outlook but we recognised its as an important risk Is it really a case that the BOJ has officially moved to a phase of data dependency? I’m still doubtful

The OPEC+ meeting of the Joint Ministerial Monitoring Committee (JMMC) will be held via videoconference on Thursday. The JMMC’s primary role is to monitor compliance with production agreements among OPEC+ members and assess market conditions. This includes reviewing monthly production levels, ensuring that member countries adhere to agreed production cuts or increases, and making recommendations

Sachs CEO David Solomon spoke in an interview with CNBC: he is forecasting one or two cuts Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) “I’ve been more cautious about interest-rate cuts all year than the general consensus” “When I now look at the data and the way things are setting up, I think the perspective of one

AUD shunted lower: This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

The People’s Bank of China set the onshore yuan (CNY) reference rate for the trading session ahead. USD/CNY is the onshore yuan. Its permitted to trade plus or minus 2% from this daily reference rate.CNH is the offshore yuan. USD /CNH has no restrictions on its trading range.A significantly stronger or weaker rate than expected

Via Twitter: — Expectations I had seen centred on: Headline crude -1.1mn barrelsDistillates -1.2 mn bblsGasoline -1 mn — This data point is from a privately-conducted survey by the American Petroleum Institute (API): It’s a survey of oil storage facilities and companies The official report is due Wednesday morning US time. The two reports are

Hamas statement conveyed on media outlets: Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh was killed in Iran’s Tehran Oil is higher. No further details. He was in Tehran to attend the inauguration ceremony of Iranian President and to meet Iranian officials. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

A note conveyed via CNBC from Deutsche Bank, analysts there say the average run higher for VIX is highest in Q3 compared with any other quarter. I wonder if the Bank of Japan doesn’t hike rate today if the SPX will snap back? I’d be a yes on that. The latest chatter is a 15bp

I’m hesitant to read too much into this rally for NQ, given it’s a thin liquidity time. It does appear though that large sell orders haven’t been resting in the range we’ve seen so far. Quite the sell off on Tuesday, thanks NHK: Forexlive Americas FX news wrap: Bank of Japan leaks the possibilty of

Reuters is out with a new poll of the Presidential election that has Harris leading 43% to 42% over Trump. It’s similar to others that now show a tight race. Betting markets also show a close race. Harris is in a honeymoon period as Republicans re-frame their attacks and Democrats shake off the Biden rust.

Slumping factory output Japanese manufacturers’ outlooks: see August output +0.7% m/m see July output +6.5% m/m I doubt the BoJ is paying too much attention to today’s data but this is probably indicative of on hold given the weakness. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

The focus was the inflation data: Australian Q2 core inflation +0.8% q/q (expected 1.0%)AUD/USD has dropped under 0.6500 after core inflation comes in lower than expected The lower than expected core reading removes the prospect of a rate hike by the Reserve Bank of Australia at its meeting next week on August 5 and 6.

Good morning, afternoon and evening all. Any charts, technical analysis, trade ideas, thoughts, views, ForexLive traders would like to share and discuss with fellow ForexLive traders, please do so: This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

The US dollar has strengthened against the euro due to slowing growth momentum outside the US, with key economic indicators from China and the euro-zone showing signs of weakening. This has contributed to the USD’s recent rebound. Key Points: USD Strengthening: Euro Weakness: The euro has weakened against the USD, approaching the 200-day moving average

People’s Bank of China USD/CNY reference rate is due around 0115 GMT. The People’s Bank of China (PBOC), China’s central bank, is responsible for setting the daily midpoint of the yuan (also known as renminbi or RMB). The PBOC follows a managed floating exchange rate system that allows the value of the yuan to fluctuate

From the Wall Street Journal’s Nick Timiraos, what he duns a ‘cheat sheet’ for today’s meeting. There is more at his thread on Twitter. And his article, which is gated, but if you can cess: new risks to the labor market have helped rebuild the groundwork for cuts ps. My trimmed down version of a

BOJ to discuss hike to 0.25% – reportAnother Bank of Japan leak says 0.25% is under considerationNikkei reiterates the worst kept secret. BOJ considering hike to 0.25%US JOLTS job openings 8.184M vs 8.000M estimateUS July consumer confidence 100.3 vs 99.7 expectedUS May CaseShiller 20-city house price index +6.8% y/y vs +6.7% expectedJapan new to FX

Gold prices erased earlier losses, jumping more than $20 to $2405 after Israel’s defense minister said Hezbollah crossed red lines with a missile attack that killed 12 children. The response was a missile attack that the IDF said targeted the commander responsible for the attack. However two security sources cited by Reuters said the commander

The USDCHF stretched higher yesterday to start the trading week, and in doing so moved toward the key 200-day MA/38.2% of the move up from the December 2023 low. Those levels came in near 0.8879 to 0.8883 respectively. The high price reached 0.8867 today (close but still a safe distance from the 200-day MA). Staying

Fundamental Overview Gold has been on a steady decline since hitting a new all-time high on the 17th of July. We saw a reversal in many other markets on that day and although the catalyst hasn’t been clear it seems like it’s all been connected to deleveraging from strengthening Yen. Basically, the squeeze on the

Germany Flash Q2 GDP Y/Y -0.1% vs. 0.0% expected and -0.2% prior.Germany Flash Q2 GDP Q/Q -0.1% vs. 0.1% expected and 0.2% prior. The German economy contracted in the second quarter. This adds to many other negative economic releases for the largest European economy. This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at www.forexlive.com.

They say competition is key. In business, it certainly leads to quicker innovation and more refined product offering. The cryptocurrency world is no different, with the dominant Bitcoin battling runner-up Ethereum for market share. Regardless of whose corner you stand in, cryptocurrencies are here, tradeable and making the news. If you bought Bitcoin at a

Prior was 100.4Expectations 78.2 vs 72.8 priorPresent situation 133.6 vs 135.3 prior16.0% of consumers said jobs were “hard to get,” from 15.7%.12 month inflation expectations 5.4% vs 5.4% priorOn a six-month moving average basis, purchasing plans for homes fell to a 12-year low. “Confidence increased in July, but not enough to break free of the

Elon Musk took part in an ‘X Takeover’ podcast hosted by the Tesla Owners Silicon Valley account. was held on Musk’s X social media platformtook place on Monday You may be seeing headlines (and I quote): Elon Musk says he doesn’t like crypto all that much – not even Bitcoin Musk did not say that.

Fundamental Overview The USD has been rallying steadily against most major currencies in the recent couple of weeks, although the catalyst behind the move has been unclear. A good argument has been that most of the moves we’ve been seeing in the past 10 trading days were driven by deleveraging from strengthening Yen. Basically, the

The EURUSD has fallen below the 200-day MA at 1.08173, and preceded to extend lower on the technical break. However, once the price reached the 200 bar MA on the 4-hour chart and the 100-day MA between 1.07946 and 1.07994, the buyers have stalled the fall, and there is a modest bounce higher. That bounce

German DAX futures +0.1%UK FTSE futures flat S&P 500 futures are also seen flat now, after having been slightly down earlier in the day. It’s all still a very pensive mood in equities, especially for tech shares. Microsoft will be reporting earnings after the close today, so that is the big one to watch. The

The kickstart video takes a look at three other major currency pairs from a technical perspective – the EURUSD, USDJPY, and GBPUSD. As a bonus, I also take a look at the EURJPY after a view of the pair yesterday outlining a potential trading opportunity (see post here). What is the bias for each pair,

Prior month 8.140M revised to 8.23MJob openings 8.184M. That is down -941,000 over the year. The job opening rate held at 4.9% in Juneaccommodations and food services +120Kstate and local government excluding education +94K. Durable goods manufacturing -88Kfederal government -62KVacancy rate of 4.9% versus 4.9% previouslyQuits rate 2.1% versus 2.1% previously (revised from 2.2%). The

o Eaelier today, the USDJPY moved up to test the 200 hour moving average at 155.191, and found willing sellers. The price in the early New York session moved back below a swing area between 154.52 and 154.878, and has now gotten another push lower on reports that the BOJ board members are to discuss

The earlier leak was from NHK and this time it’s from Jiji. The content is the same: That the BOJ is considering a 15 bps hike rather than the 10 bps the market was mulling over. The decision is due in about 12 hours. USD/JPY is near the lows of the day, down 28 pips

Nikkei is now getting in on the worst kept secret. They say that the DOJ is reportedly considering a rate hike to 0.25%. They also add that the central bank is looking to decide by how much and how fast to reduce its monthly purchases of Japanese government bonds. Meanwhile, the Nikkei reports that Japan’s

Atsushi Mimura takes over at the end of the month and the market is unsure of what changes are coming. His hints in today’s comments don’t suggest a big splash. Will act under internationally agreed commitments on foreign exchangeIt has been internationally agreed that measures including intervention are allowed when necessaryA change in Vice Finance

Prior -14.0Economic confidence 95.8 vs 95.4 expectedPrior 95.9Industrial confidence -10.5 vs -10.7 expectedPrior -10.1; revised to -10.2Services confidence 4.8 vs 5.5 expectedPrior 6.5; revised to 6.2 Of note, the employment expectations indicator dipped below its long-term average of 100 for the first time since April 2021. That suggests some softness to the labour market outlook

What’s this chart saying? UK 2-year yields are down 3.3 basis points today in the sixth consecutive day of declines. The move comes ahead of Thursday’s Bank of England rate decision, with the rates market pricing in a 60% chance of a cut. The Bank Rate is currently 5.25% so to get to 3.85% over

Today’s Market Overview The broader market showed divergent trends today, with Healthcare leading the gains while the Technology sector displayed mixed results. Notably, major tech players like Nvidia (NVDA) saw a slight dip, while Apple (AAPL) incrementally rose, exemplifying a nuanced tech landscape. Healthcare Ascends Standing out in today’s market is the Healthcare sector, which

The price of crude oil is settling at $75.81. That is down $-1.35 or -1.75%. The high-priced today reached $77.69. The low price was at $75.35. The low was the lowest since June 7. Fundamentally, summer doldrums with weak demand from China is being offset by Middle East violence. Technically looking at the daily chart,

People’s Bank of China USD/CNY reference rate is due around 0115 GMT. The People’s Bank of China (PBOC), China’s central bank, is responsible for setting the daily midpoint of the yuan (also known as renminbi or RMB). The PBOC follows a managed floating exchange rate system that allows the value of the yuan to fluctuate

The AUDUSD and NZDUSD is extending higher, but the falling 100 are moving averages on each is getting in the way of any upside momentum. For the AUDUSD the price extended briefly above that moving average but quickly rotated back to the downside. That moving average comes in at 0.65539. Getting above that level would

Synopsis: BofA anticipates the Federal Reserve will keep its policy rate unchanged in July, signaling progress in reducing inflation while maintaining a data-dependent approach for future rate cuts. The USD’s reaction will hinge on Chair Powell’s tone and any hints about a September rate cut. Key Points: Policy Rate and Inflation: Unchanged Policy Rate: BofA

The fall in the USDJPY has had a negative impact on US stocks recently with the thought that the carry trade would lead to the unwind of funding stocks with JPY. Whether true or not, it can be the “story” that causes a reaction. The USDJPY has moved lower on the report that the Bank

As the North American session begins, the NZD is the strongest and the JPY is the weakest. We are still a day away from the FOMC rate decision where the Fed is likely to keep rates unchanged with a tilt to an ease in September. The Fed will NOT release the dot-plot of rate forecast

Prior was +1.9Service sector outlook -0.1 vs -4.1 priorThe employment index -0.2 vs +1.8 priorThe input price index fell from 24.7 to 21.8 and the wages and benefits index moved down from 16.4 to 13.4Retail sales outlook -18.1 vs -18.1 prior Comments in the report: Utilities It feels like the economy is getting better. Pipeline

Prior was +7.2%Prices m/m +0.3% vs +0.4% expected National house price data from the FHFA: Prices up 5.7% y/y vs 6.3% priorPrices m/m 0.0% vs +0.2% prior The creeping weakness is more-evident in the national numbers, rather than in the 20-largest cities. Long-dated yields are coming down but I doubt there will be a surge

The major indices are higher in early US trade. After the close AMD, Microsoft, Starbucks, and Pinterest report earnings. Microsoft shares are trading up $2.15 or 0.50% in early trading. A snapshot of the market 12 minutes into the open is showing: Dow Industrial Average average is up 159.13 points or 0.39% at 40699.07S&P index

It’s a big week on the economic calendar, including the BOJ, Fed and BOE decisions. That kicks off with the Bank of Japan on Wednesday in Tokyo but first we get a decent slate of US economic data, starting at 9 am ET with: CaseShiller US housing pricesMonthly house price data from the FHFA There

The yen jumped on a report that the BOJ will discuss a 15 bps hike rather than the 10 bps hike the market has been contemplating. That would take rates from 0.10% to 0.25%. Here is the report Translation of the key parts: Some board members believe that the risk of yen depreciation pushing up

ING’s latest ahead of the Bank of Japan meeting: We believe that the recently released inflation and labour data continue to justify the Bank of Japan’s rate normalisation. We are expecting a 15bp hike tomorrow, but the decision is still up in the air. Currently, the market is pricing in a 60% chance of a

The USDCAD is pushing higher but continues to find resistance near the-yesterday at 1.3864. The price has rotated down and is currently back down near the-April. Recall last weekthe price did move above that level but quickly rotated to the downside on two separate occasions. Yesterday the price moved above that level in rotated at

The tight range speaks to the lack of appetite among most dollar pairs so far today. The only exception once again is really USD/JPY, with the pair up 0.5% to 154.70 but off earlier highs as the 155.00 mark holds. As an aside, there are large expiries there in play so do be wary of

Prior +3.4%HICP +2.9% vs +3.2% y/y expectedPrior +3.6% The readings are lower than estimated as Spanish headline inflation continues to swing around mostly in the past half-year. As for core annual inflation, it is seen easing further to 2.8% – down from 3.0% in June. That’s comfort for the ECB but still not quite at

It’s still very much to do with the volatility swings since last week. This time, we’re moving in the other direction as the BOJ and Fed meetings are just around the corner. As mentioned earlier, the near-term bias in the pair is now more neutral. That frees up a bit of room to roam for

Japan chief cabinet secretary Hayashi: Monetary policy specifics are up to the BOJ to decideExpect the BOJ to closely coordinate with govt, conduct appropriate monetary policy toward inflation target USD/JPY is range bound on the session, roughly 153.63 – 154.24 Currently around 154.05 This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

Italy Flash Q2 GDP Y/Y 0.9% vs. 0.8% expected and 0.7% prior.Italy Flash Q2 GDP Q/Q 0.2% vs. 0.2% expected and 0.3% prior. The periphery nations remain the bright spot in Europe as we have also seen with the Spanish release earlier. This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at www.forexlive.com.

Japan data for June 2024 Unemployment rate 2.5% expected 2.6%, prior 2.6% Job-To-Applicant Ratio 1.23 vs. expected 1.24, prior 1.24 Plenty of jobs. Need higher wages though. That’s what the BoJ want to see, higher wages to fuel higher spending and to keep inflation stably and sustainably around 2%. This article was written by Eamonn

It will be a busy one on the economic calendar today in Europe. The preliminary Q2 GDP numbers will be key ones to watch but I would wager the inflation numbers from Germany and Spain to be the more crucial element for the ECB to consider at this stage. The estimate is for headline annual

Via Scotia, preview comments on what to expect from the Bank of Japan. Out of 46 forecasters within consensus, only 9 expect a hike. Markets are assigning a higher probability to a 10bps hike that has been floating around 70% odds with about 7bps priced. The case for hiking rests entirely upon gauging the degree

Dallas Fed Prior was -15.1 Details: General business activity -17.5 vs -15.1 priorCompany outlook -18.4 vs -6.9 priorPrices paid +23.1 vs +21.5 priorNew orders -12.8 vs -1.3 priorShipments -16.3 vs +2.8 priorEmployment +7.1 vs -2.9 prior Overall, the details and the commentary are notably worse than the headline. I wonder if Hurricane Beryl affected some

The major stock indices are ending the day mixed. Dow is down marginally. The S&P and Nasdaq closed marginally higher. Russell 2000 is not so lucky as it falls 1% on the day. The final numbers are showing: Dow Industrial Average fell -40.21 points or -0.12% at 40540.12S&P index rose 4.46 points or 0.08% at

The dollar held a touch firmer to start the new week but is keeping little changed overall today. It’s still early of course but in Europe, the euro will be in focus amid a host of data releases to come. We’ll be getting Q2 preliminary GDP across the euro area alongside inflation data from Spain

Temasek is a global investment company headquartered in Singapore. Newswires splashing the headlines on the firm’s investment intentions: Singapore’s state-owned Temasek plans to invest $30 billion in the US over the next five yearsThe firm remains cautious on putting money into China This caution on China is increasing as China appears to be incrementally closing

MUFG are/were expecting a 15bp rate hike from the Bank of Japan this week. But, in a note, they say that the lack of guidance from officials at the Bank is casting doubt on that call. MUFG cite market expectations for a rate hike, and say that if a hike is not forthcoming the yen

The People’s Bank of China set the onshore yuan (CNY) reference rate for the trading session ahead. USD/CNY is the onshore yuan. Its permitted to trade plus or minus 2% from this daily reference rate.CNH is the offshore yuan. USD /CNH has no restrictions on its trading range.A significantly stronger or weaker rate than expected

Spain Flash Q2 GDP Y/Y 2.9% vs. 2.5% expected and 2.5% prior.Spain Flash Q2 GDP Q/Q 0.8% vs. 0.5% expected and 0.8% prior. Some nice pickup in the Spain’s economy while inflation continues to abate. GDP growth Y/Y in Spain averaged 2.03% from 1996 until 2024, so this is good news for the soft landing

Eurozone Flash Q2 GDP Y/Y 0.6% vs. 0.5% expected and 0.4% prior.Eurozone Flash Q2 GDP Q/Q 0.3% vs. 0.2% expected and 0.3% prior. Among the Member States for which data are available for the second quarter of 2024, Ireland (+1.2%) recorded the highest increase compared to the previous quarter, followed by Lithuania (+0.9%) and Spain

US futures keep the calm so far on the dayEuro stays little changed after flurry of dataEurozone July final consumer confidence -13.0 vs -13.0 prelimEurozone Q2 preliminary GDP 0.3% vs. 0.2% Q/Q expectedItaly Q2 preliminary GDP 0.2% vs 0.2% Q/Q expectedGermany Q2 preliminary GDP -0.1% vs. 0.1% Q/Q expectedBavaria July CPI +2.5% vs +2.7% y/y

The US Treasury said it expects to borrow $740 billion in Q3, which is much lower than the $847 billion estimate from April. That’s due to a higher cash balance at the beginning of the quarter and lower redemptions in the Fed’s SOMA market. It assumes a cash balance at the end of this quarter

The online trading and fintech space is brimming with excitement as the Nomination Round for the UF AWARDS APAC 2024 is now live. Starting on July 30, the Nomination Round is the first stage that leading businesses must complete in order to be considered for an APAC title. With so many reputable B2B and B2C

Prior 102.7 The reading indicates a more cautious outlook to the Swiss economy in the next six months. And that has been a bit of a trend in recent months as well. If anything, it speaks to the more tentative take on economic conditions in the region as we approach the second half of the

McDonald’s says business slowed ‘meaningfully’ in the majority of marketsDallas Fed July manufacturing survey -17.5 vs -15.1 priorTreasury says it will borrow $740 billion in Q3UK Chancellor: We have inherited overspending of £22 bilion, not to act isn’t an optionHurricane season might pick up later this weekFBI: Motive still not clear in Trump shooting, no

Reaffirms prudent monetary policy approachChinese economy diverges with many risks in key areasStill faces insufficient domestic demandSees increasing negative external impactTo promote stable development of property marketNeed to keep stepping up macroeconomic policiesReiterates proactive fiscal policyFocus of economic policies to shift more to consumption Again, all of these are very on the surface and lacking

In the European session we will get the German CPI readings and the Eurozone Flash Q2 GDP report. Although we might see a market reaction, it shouldn’t be sustained as the market will look towards the more imp Eurozone Flash CPI report tomorrow. In the American session we have the US Consumer Confidence and the

They were down roughly 0.3% earlier in Asia trading but have kept largely steady in European morning trade thus far. Both Nasdaq futures and Dow futures are also up 0.1%, reflecting a more tentative mood overall I would say. There will be a couple of modest earnings releases coming up but all eyes will be

Microsoft will announce earnings after the close tomorrow. EPS is expected to be $2.93 on revenues of $64.39B. That compares to earnings and revenues from a year ago of $2.69 on $56.18B. Earnings are up 8.92%. Revenues are up 14.6%. Of course, price reaction will not only be with regard to the beat or miss

There are a couple to take note of, as highlighted in bold. The first one being for USD/JPY at the 155.00 mark. It’s a key area where offers are also lined up, so the expiries will add to a bit of resistance in preventing any major upside extension in the session ahead. Just be wary

HSBC’s Global Private Banking chief investment officer has expressed a positive view on most Asian equities for the balance of the year. Says that Asia remains the most important growth engine of the global economy, citing both GDP and earnings growth for Asia ex-Japan (for 2024): 4.6% and 23% respectiveely Overweight: equities in Japan, India,

The other state readings released around the same time: Brandenburg CPI +2.6% vs +2.6% y/y priorHesse CPI +1.8% vs +1.8% y/y priorSaxony CPI +3.1% vs +2.8% y/y priorNorth Rhine Westphalia CPI +2.3% vs +2.2% y/y priorBaden Wuerttemberg CPI +2.1% vs +1.9% y/y prior It’s a bit of a mixed report but at the balance, it

The data due from Japan and Australia today are not the focus. For Japan its on the Bank of Japan meeting today and tomorrow: Japanese yen stays in the spotlight with the BOJ coming up later this week For Australia it’s the CPI data due on Wednesday, July 31, 2024: Australian CPI data due this

Eurostoxx +0.3%Germany DAX +0.3%France CAC 40 +0.3%UK FTSE -0.4%Spain IBEX +0.3%Italy FTSE MIB +0.4% It’s a bit of a breather but again, still very much early in the day. Wall Street will have the final say again, so we’ll see how things go when US markets open later. For now, US futures are also keeping

And this will just add to the mix of things amid key central bank meetings, month-end rebalancing, and also the US jobs report on Friday. Here are some of the bigger names on the calendar for the days ahead: Tuesday, 30 July – Microsoft (after hours)- AMD (after hours)- Pfizer (pre-market)- Rio Tinto (after hours)-

Once again, there’s not much in it as the pair continues to stay a little swingy awaiting the BOJ and Fed meetings tomorrow. But looking at price action, the near-term chart shows a push back above the 100-hour moving average (red line) for USD/JPY. That suggests the near-term bias to be more neutral currently. The

Prior +0.2%; revised to +0.3% The French economy continues to hold up in Q2, keeping a more resilient tone. Here is the breakdown: This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

Via a note from Deutsche Bank, urging everyone to chill out on the level of Federal Reserve easing they expect: As we approach this week’s FOMC (DB preview here), optimism has again been building that we’re about to embark on a notable Fed easing cycle.For the 8th time in this rate cycle, the market has

ANZ-Roy Morgan Australian Consumer Confidence Index ANZ comment on the result: The fact that consumer confidence held onto most of last week’s sizeable 5.9pt gain suggests households may be seeing the benefits of the Stage 3 tax cut Yes, tax cuts and an expected further boost yet to come from various ‘cost of living’ support

5 reasons the Bank of Japan should be wary of hiking rates this weekJapan’s Hayashi says Bank of Japan and government to closely coordinate📉 Chart of the day: Failed breakout in S&P 500 e-mini futures (ES) 4-hourBank of Japan Decision Day: Will Rates Rise or Hold Steady?Australia data – June Building approvals -6.5% m/m (expected

Australian building approvals for June 2024 come in at -6.5% m/m expected -1.5%, prior +5.7% For the y/y, comes in at -3.7% This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

Snippet summary from BMO on opportunities ahead for the Federal Reserve to signal a September rate cut: the verdict is still out on the amount of signalling Powell is willing to provide on Wednesdaythere is enough uncertainty that we suspect there will be meaningful and tangible price action – most likely on the constructive side

📉 Chart of the day: The simple S&P 500 technical analysis Today’s chart analysis focuses on a significant event in the S&P 500 E-mini Futures (ES) on a 4-hour timeframe. 🕒 The market has been trading within a descending channel, initially appearing as a potential bull flag—a pattern often signaling a bullish continuation. However, the

This comes via a Bloomberg report (gated): Beijing says it will stop publishing daily flows data.The decision follows a move in May to end data on intraday flows through trading links with Hong Kong. Investors will lose the ability to calculate net flows at the end of each trading day from August 18. The only

The news from Maccas was … good news for shareholders! Anyway, this isn’t a hindsight post. The news on Monday: Global comp sales were down 1% in Q2 compared to +0.5% expected by analysts. US sales fell 0.7% in Q2. Why could this be good news? Well, its all about ‘inferior goods’. No judgement! …

The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) statement is due at 1400 US Eastern time on Wednesday, July 31, 2024 Federal Reserve Chair Powell’s press conference follows a half hour later. Via Scotia The FOMC should tentatively have greater confidence that this isn’t quite another one of those prior false hope periods for low inflation. US

Good morning, afternoon and evening all. Any charts, technical analysis, trade ideas, thoughts, views, ForexLive traders would like to share and discuss with fellow ForexLive traders, please do so: This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

At the start of the US trading day, the price was trading near the 200-day MA at 1.08162 (green step line on the chart above). The price action moved through that level in the morning session, and in doing so, moved toward the next in what was a cluster of technical targets. The second target

The USDCHF buyers are continuing what they started last week when they moved away from the 50% midpoint of the move up from the December 2023 low (at 0.8777). The move higher has now taken the price closer to the broken 200 day MA at 0.8880. Also near that level is the broken 38.2% of

When technical levels overlap and find sellers (or buyers) leaning against that level, it should raise an antenna for traders as a “key risk focused level”. That is, if the price cannot get back above that level, the sellers (or buyers) are in control. Moreover, if multi-time frames (i.e. daily, or 4-hour , hourly, etc)

Today’s stock market overview Today’s trading session paints a diverse picture across different market sectors, highlighted by Tesla’s notable gain and a mixed performance in technology and healthcare sectors. This article delves into these developments, providing a snapshot for traders and investors looking to navigate the complexities of today’s market. 🚀 Auto Manufacturing: Tesla at

Fundamental Overview The USD has been rallying steadily against most major currencies in the recent couple of weeks, although the catalyst behind the move has been unclear. A good argument has been that most of the moves we’ve been seeing in the past 10 trading days were driven by deleveraging from strengthening Yen. Basically, the

It’s a big week for central banks as decisions from the BOJ, Fed and BOE come back-to-back-to-back in a 32-hour span starting early Wednesday in Japan (late Tuesday in the US). Mechanically, the most-uncertain is the Bank of Japan, which hasn’t clearly signaled what it will do. The market is pricing in a 61% chance

Both the AUDUSD and NZDUSD are continuing their downward momentum with each trading at new lows for the cycle. The AUDUSD is approaching its 61.8% retracement of its move up from the April low. That level comes in at 0.65283. Last week the price fell below that level but we bounced back. However the high

The EURUSD has continued its move to the downside today, and in the process is now breaking below its 200-day moving average at 1.08162 and moving into a cluster of technical levels. Staying below that MA keep the sellers more in control with more work to do to increase the bearish bias. The next target

There are rumours of a capital gains tax. Disaster of Truss’ mini-budget shows what happens if you don’t take actionWe will cut spending projects worth £8 billion next yearWe will be taking immediate actionIf left unaddressed, this would result in a 25% increase in the budget deficit this year Cable is under some pressure today

Closing changes: Stoxx 600 -0.2%German DAX -0.5%UK FTSE 100 +0.1%French CAC -0.9%Italy MIB -0.5%Spain IBEX -0.4% European stocks opened at the best levels of the day but steadily deteriorated, particularly in the final 90 minutes of trading. This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

Headlines: Dollar on steadier footing to kick start what will be a big week for marketsJapanese yen stays in the spotlight with the BOJ coming up later this weekUSD/JPY Technical Analysis – The pair bounced on the key 152.00 supportUK June mortgage approvals 59.98k vs 60.40k expectedUK July CBI retailing reported sales -43 vs -24

Main points from UBS on their outlook for the US Federal Reserve: policy pivot on the horizon, UBS base case is a September 25bp rate cut Citing: UBS expect the US continues to head toward a soft economic landingeconomy has entered a period of below-trend growth, growth has slowed to a modest pacesteadily rising unemployment

The risk mood is deteriorating across the board, leading to some US dollar bids, though some of that has reversed into the London fix. In the bigger picture, the mood is darkening with the S&P 500 now slightly negative after rising by 1% earlier. European stocks are also on the low, bitcoin is under pressure

Amid all the focus on the Fed, let’s also not forget that it is NFP week in markets. Not only that, the BOJ and BOE are also on the agenda in adding to Australia and Eurozone CPI data. And to top all of that off, there is also plenty of major earnings releases on the

Gold is at the lows of the day in a worsening selloff that has it down $14 to $2372. It was trading higher on the day until about an hour ago when the broader risk trade began to deteriorate. Zooming out, gold’s run above $2450 increasingly looks like a failure as a series of lower

As the North American session begins, the USD is the strongest and the EUR is the weakest. The recovery from Friday in stocks is continuing ahead of a busy week. US yields are lower ahead of the FOMC rate decision on Wednesday (no change expected). The BOE (chance for a cut at 60%), and the

Prior 59.99k; revised to 60.13kNet consumer credit £1.2 billionPrior £1.5 billion On net, UK individuals borrowed £2.7 billion of mortgage debt in June. Meanwhile, the annual growth rate for net mortgage lending rose to 0.5% in June – keeping the positive trend in the last few months. This article was written by Justin Low at

The USDCAD is extending higher and in the process is moving above the highs from last week and the high going back to April 2024 at 1.38448. The price is also extending above the high of a swing area going back to 2023 at 1.3855. Going forward, staying above 1.38448 would keep the buyers in

The euro is floundering near the lowest since July 8 as the US dollar broadly strengthens. It’s tough to say what’s driving the moves at the moment but Thursday’s stronger US GDP numbers and Friday’s hotter PCE inflation are tailwinds for the dollar. That said, Fed pricing hasn’t moved much and Treasury yields are lower

McDonald’s is out with a warning on the health of consumers, and not just the physical health. The fast food sector is first to feel the pinch when money is tight and that’s what is happening now, according to an exec on today’s post-earnings call. An exec said that the quick-serve sector ‘meaningfully’ slowed in

The main events for the week ahead are as follows: On Tuesday, Switzerland will release the KOF economic barometer, and the U.S. will publish the CB consumer confidence and JOLTS job openings data. Wednesday will bring inflation data for Australia and the Bank of Japan’s monetary policy announcement. Additionally, the eurozone will release its inflation

Comments from the FBI deputy director: Motive still not clearTrump agreed to participate in an interviewNo evidence of co-conspiratorsSuspect’s search history showed power plants, mass shooting events, bombs and attempted assassination of Slovakian PMShooter made more than 25 different firearms-related purchases online using an aliasWas identified as a suspicious person and police took a photo

Fundamental Overview The S&P 500 has been on a steady decline since the last US CPI report on July 11th. In the first stages of the pullback, we’ve been seeing a rotation from big cap stocks into small cap stocks as the Russell 2000 displayed an opposite price action. Eventually, the bearish momentum picked up

German DAX futures +0.4%UK FTSE futures +0.4% S&P 500 futures are also seen up 0.5% following the rebound in Wall Street towards the end of last week. But for this week, it’s too soon for investors to be getting too excited. Microsoft, Meta, Apple, and Amazon are all going to be reporting earnings after hours

In the Kickstart video for July 29, I take a look at the 3 major currency pairs – the EURUSD, USDJPY and GBPUSD – to start the trading week. IN the weekend video posted on Friday, I spoke to key levels in the EURUSD (and the USDJPY, GBPUSD and other major pairs vs the USD).

Synopsis: Goldman Sachs analyzes the recent sharp decline in USD/JPY and outlines a cautious approach to reengaging in long positions, anticipating potential stabilization around the 150 level. Key Points: Recent USD/JPY Movement: Decline: USD/JPY has dropped nearly 10 big figures from its early July peak of almost 162.Factors: A combination of JPY-positive factors has driven

And for now, the volatility in the yen continues to persist as such. USD/JPY itself touched a low of 153.01 earlier before keeping around 153.40 levels now. And the high in Asia trading was at 154.35, so that is a wide range already seen on the day. But the technical picture remains little changed overall:

This week is going to be one of the busiest weeks of the year in terms of the numbers of events. Unfortunately, today the calendar is empty, so we might see some consolidation ahead of the key events. This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at www.forexlive.com.

There is some low-impact data from Singapore: business confidenceexport and import pricesPPI But nothing for major FX. I’m sure we’ll get something to shift major FX rates around, perhaps a headline or two. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

As the trading week gets started in the US, the premarket gains seen in the Dow have been reversed. The NASDAQ and S&P are still up. A snapshot of the market currently shows: Dow Industrial Average average is down -90 points or -0.22% at 40499.37S&P index up 9.15.20.16 percent of 5468NASDAQ index is up 80

It’s good to be back after a week away. The economic calendar and earnings calendar is very busy this week and it looks like the hurricane season will pick up as well. An area of disturbed weather over the central tropical Atlantic Ocean is expected to interact with an approaching tropical wave during the next

There is arguably just one to take note of on the day, as highlighted in bold. That being for USD/JPY at the 154.00 mark. Amid the bigger swings in the past two weeks, the expiry level might be one to watch in terms of keeping a lid on price action in the session ahead. It

Trump spoke at Bitcoin 2024 in Nashville, Tennessee, making a number of promises re crypto: He said he would not sell any of Federal government bitcoin holdings, creating the core of a “strategic national bitcoin stockpile” “If I am elected, it will be the policy of my administration to keep 100% of all the bitcoin

The decision is likely to be a finely balanced one though, with expectations of the bank rate vote being 6-3 or 5-4 in favour of a rate cut. But what are traders pricing in for the decision currently? The OIS market shows that there is a ~61% probability priced in, with roughly 55 bps of

Fundamental Overview Bitcoin eventually managed to break above the key 67275 resistance as the risk mood improved in the latter part of last week. From a macro perspective, nothing has changed as the Fed is going to cut into resilient growth, which should ultimately be a strong bullish driver for the market. Over the weekend,

Fundamental Overview The Nasdaq has been on a steady decline since the last US CPI report on July 11th. In the first stages of the pullback, we’ve been seeing a rotation from big cap stocks into small cap stocks as the Russell 2000 displayed an opposite price action. Eventually, the bearish momentum picked up and

UK retailers look to have endured another rough month as the retail sales balance slumps further in July. The headline reading is the weakest since April, with CBI noting that poor weather and softer demand conditions weighing on the retail sales. The outlook index for August is seen at -32, which is a mild improvement

Cannot simply overlook the impact a weak yen and rising prices are having on consumptionImportant for government, BOJ to guide policy with a close eye on recent yen declines Is this a bit of a suggestion of what they want the BOJ to be doing later this week? This article was written by Justin Low

Domestic sight deposits CHF 449.5 bn vs CHF 452.9 bn prior Swiss sight deposits fell in the past week but remains in the range of what we have been seeing in the last few months. So, nothing quite out of the ordinary here. This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

A snippet from the Morgan Stanley Federal Reserve Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) preview. MS cite ‘considerable progress on inflation’ will allow the Federal Reserve to inch closer to rate cuts. Morgan Stanley are expecting three cuts this year, beginning at the September FOMC meeting. MS are expecting Powell to indicate that the Fed is

As is usual for a Monday morning, market liquidity is very thin until it improves as more Asian centres come online … prices are liable to swing around, so take care out there. Indicative rates: EUR/USD 1.0866USD/JPY 153.85GBP/USD 1.2865USD/CHF 0.8833USD/CAD 1.3836AUD/USD 0.6550NZD/USD 0.5898 This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

National Australia Bank, from their latest NAB Business Pulse: August 2024: The cash rate is likely to remain stable at 4.35% out to May 2025, according to a recent NAB Economics outlook. Looking ahead, the NAB Economics team forecasts a drop to 3.6% by December 2025, falling still further in 2026. — The Reserve Bank

Rate cuts by year-end Fed: 70 bps (96% probability of no change at the next meeting) ECB: 50 bps (67% probability of rate cut at the next meeting) BoE: 55 bps (60% probability of rate cut at the next meeting) BoC: 48 bps (72% probability of rate cut at the next meeting) RBNZ: 67 bps

The Reserve Bank of Australia meet on August 5 and 6. Ahead of that, on July 31, are inflation data for Q2 2024 and June 2024. Both are due at 11.30 am Sydney time on Wednesday, July 31 (0130 GMT and 2130 US Eastern time on Tuesday). Snippet preview points via Commonwealth Bank of Australia:

The People’s Bank of China set the onshore yuan (CNY) reference rate for the trading session ahead. USD/CNY is the onshore yuan. Its permitted to trade plus or minus 2% from this daily reference rate.CNH is the offshore yuan. USD /CNH has no restrictions on its trading range.A significantly stronger or weaker rate than expected

Eurostoxx +0.2%Germany DAX +0.4%France CAC 40 -0.1%UK FTSE +0.5%Spain IBEX +0.6%Italy FTSE MIB +0.7% French stocks are the ones lagging, keeping with a more cautious mood after last weeks’ drop. US futures are keeping higher though, with S&P 500 futures seen up 0.4% on the day. So, the overall risk mood is in a better

People’s Bank of China USD/CNY reference rate is due around 0115 GMT. The People’s Bank of China (PBOC), China’s central bank, is responsible for setting the daily midpoint of the yuan (also known as renminbi or RMB). The PBOC follows a managed floating exchange rate system that allows the value of the yuan to fluctuate

Good morning, afternoon and evening all. Any charts, technical analysis, trade ideas, thoughts, views, ForexLive traders would like to share and discuss with fellow ForexLive traders, please do so. Post ’em if ya got ’em! This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

Deutsche Bank are forecasting a close call at the Bank of England meeting this week: 5-4 vote in favour of a 25bp cutexpect the Monetary Policy Committee to deliver its first rate cut of the cyclethis will lower the Bank Rate to 5%think the case for a rate cut rests on a shifting reaction function

Deutsche Bank expect a line ball Bank of England rate cut this week, 5-4 vote in favourOil markets awaiting the results of Venezuela’s presidential electionDeutsche Bank expect 3 Fed rate cuts in 2024. BoA says just 1PBOC sets USD/ CNY reference rate for today at 7.1316 (vs. estimate at 7.2522)Brent crude oil has jumped higher

Reuters have a long piece up on a major Bank of Japan review of past policy that “will present a paradigm shift for the central bank’s ideas around inflation”. Summary points: Comprehensive review to help BOJ make case for future rate hikes Key message of review is that Japan is ‘ready for higher rates’ Deputy

The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meet on the 30th and 31st: statement due at 1400 US Eastern time (1800 GMT)Federal Reserve Chair Powell’s press conference follows a half hour later Deutsche Bank expect nothing at this week’s meeting: first 25 basis point cut in Septemberfollowed by a 25 bp cut in November and then

Venezuela’s presidential election results are not yet known. Polls began to close on Sunday. The contest is Nicolás Maduro’s facing off with opposition candidate Edmundo González. González has been leading in the polls, but in echoes of what we have heard another presidential election, Maduro says a big electoral victory is necessary to avoid “a

Apart from what has been posted there are no fresh catalysts. USD/JPY rose on early demand, said to be mainly from Japanese buyers. The rally coincided with the Japanese morning and into the Tokyo fix, so that looks likely. Since then its dropped a big figure or so. Looking ahead for the session, notable option

Horrific news out of the Middle East over the weekend: Distasteful as it is to say at a time like this, this has implications for markets. Oil prices have risen, traders fearing further escalation in the region. Israel’s security cabinet authorised Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s government to decide on the “manner and timing” of a

The Australian Prudential Regulation Authority (APRA) is the prudential regulator of the Australian financial services industry. Will keep macroprudential policy settings on hold following latest quarterly assessment of domestic and international economic conditionsQuality of new housing lending remains sound, arrears rates on mortgage and business lending portfolios continue to rise slowlyMortgage serviceability buffer will be

Bloomberg had the report, ICYMI. Bloomberg is gated, but in brief: China is considering a fee hike of at least tenfold on high-frequency tradingChinese authorities deem some quantitative strategies a threat to fairness in the nation’s retail investor-dominated stock marketConsultations have taken place between the China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC) and the country’s stock exchanges

Senator Cynthia Lummis says she wants to convert excess reserves at the 12 Federal Reserve banks into bitcoin over five years. Lummis is at the Bitcoin 2024 conference, where she is all in on extracting money from the crowd. She is quite sucessful too, top donors have tipped money into her campaign. She is able

Wall Street Journal Fedwatcher Nick Timiraos is out with his latest Fed preview and it doesn’t include any kind of leak about a potential cut. Instead, he highlights that the Fed will set the table for a September cut without pre-committing. That’s a consensus view given that Sept is fully priced in, including a small

29th July-2nd August 2024 Mon: Chinese Industrial Profit (Jun) Tue: Japanese Unemployment Rate (Jun), Australian Building Approvals (Jun), Spanish Flash CPI (Jul), Swiss KoF (Jul), German GDP (Q2), Prelim. CPI (Jul), EZ Consumer Confidence Final (Jul), US JOLTS (Jun) Wed: FOMC Announcement, BoJ Announcement and Outlook Report, BCB Announcement; Chinese NBS PMI (Jul), Australian CPI

Filled with respect and admiration for what the Bitcoin community has achievedBitcoin is a miracle of cooperation and human achievementIf US doesn’t embrace crypto technology, China and other countries will dominateBitcoin is going to the moon, I want the US to lead the way”Never sell your Bitcoin””I want crypto to be mined and made in

UPCOMING EVENTS: Monday: US Treasury Refunding Financing Estimates.Tuesday: Japan Unemployment Rate, Eurozone Flash Q2 GDP, US Job Openings, US Consumer Confidence. Wednesday: Japan Industrial Production and Retail Sales, Australia CPI, Chinese PMIs, BoJ Policy Decision, Eurozone Flash CPI, US ADP, Canada GDP, US ECI, US Treasury Refunding Announcement, FOMC Policy Decision.Thursday: China Caixin Manufacturing PMI,

EURUSD USDJPY: GBPUSD: USDCHF: USDCAD: AUDUSD and NZDUSD This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

The US stocks have closed the week with gains on the day. The S&P and the Nasdaq remain lower on the week. The Dow and the small-cap Russell 2000 closed higher with the Russell 2000 the best performer on the rotation on hopes lower rates would help those companies going forward. The final numbers are

US stocks close the week with gains on the day. S&P and Nasdaq lower for the week.Next week will be the Grand Daddy of the earning calendar this quarterBaker Hughes oil rig count +5 to 482.ECBs Schnabel:Services inflation showing last mile in inflation fight especially difficultEuropean shares bounce back. Mixed performance for the week.Initial Atlanta

The US stocks are moving lower with the broader S&P and Nasdaq indices below the midpoint of the days trading ranges. The indices still remain higher on the day, but in a week that has seen sharp moves lower, the leaking back to the downside is a disappointment. Looking at the Nasdaq, it is still

Next week will be a key earnings release week. 4 of 7 of the Magnificent 7 will be released with Microsoft, Meta Platforms, Apple and Amazon all scheduled to report. As if that wasn’t enough, McDonald’s, Pfizer, Merck, AMD, Starbucks, Boeing, Qualcomm, Intel, Exxon Mobil and Chevron will also report. Monday Before Open: McDonald’sPhillips After

BMO on the data from the US on Thursday inflation data for Q2. In brief: Second quarter real GDP surprised on the upside at 2.8%while inflation slowed during Q2 to 2.9%, it was modestly above expectations for a 2.7% print. As a result, investors revisited expectations for June’s core-PCE figures that will be released Friday

Monetary Authority of Singapore: The Singapore economy is expected to strengthen over the rest of 2024MAS will therefore maintain the prevailing rate of appreciation of the S$neer policy band. There will be no change to its width and the level at which it is centred The sequential pace of price change is expected to be

USD/JPY and yen crosses have dropped. Its only just after 8am in Tokyo and already we are down nearly 50 or so points in USD/JPY. There is no fresh news nor data. USD/JPY don;t need nothing to get moving! This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

The USDCHF moved lower this week helped by flight to safety flows after strong selling in the equity markets. That move lower, took the price back below its 200 day moving average near 0.8883, and the 38.2% retracement of the move-up from the December low also at that level. More momentum took the price below

The appreciation of the yen this month, and especially this past week, has taken some of the pressure off the Bank of Japan. The partial unwind of carry trade (borrow the yen at low rates to invest in USD assets for better returns) has, on the other hand, been accompanied by selling pressure on other

The Baker Hughes rig count for the current week is showing: Oil rigs +5 to 482Gas -2 to 101Total rigs, +3 to 589 The price of crude oil is down $1.28 on the week or -1.63%. Looking at the daily chart, the price of crude oil remains below the 200-day MA (green line) at $78.66.

Market Overview Today’s session on the stock market showcased a distinct dichotomy, with the tech sector experiencing a notable surge, led primarily by semiconductor giants and a mixed bag in other segments, reflecting varying investor sentiment and sector-based dynamics. 📈 Leading Sectors Tech and Semiconductors: A major highlight of today’s trading was the performance of

Reuters reporting remarks from Goldman Sachs: Estimates a peak hit to 2025 oil prices of $11/bbl as a result of weaker GDP and oil demand in scenario where US imposes across-the-board tariff of 10% on goods importsWe still forecast a $75-90 range for Brent given our base cases of trend-like growth in GDP and oil

Southwest Airlines announced today that they will get rid of their open seating and go to an assigned seating model (like everyone else). The move is intended to sell seats at a premium. Yay or Nay on the change? I vote Nay, but I generally don’t care where I sit. For me, if a multi-ton

The US stock market plunged on Wednesday, dragged down by a sell-off in megacap technology stocks after disappointing earnings reports from Google’s parent company, Alphabet, and electric vehicle maker Tesla. A weak start to the megacap earnings season sparked concerns about the recent bull rally fueled by the artificial intelligence boom. The Nasdaq Composite suffered

Based on the earnings results of companies reporting on 25 July (AMC), here’s a summary focusing on the moves made by these companies and their possible impact on the overall market indices such as SPX and NDX. The list is ordered by market cap to highlight the biggest movers and provide an average weighted move.

ECBs Schnabel is speaking and she says: services inflation is showing that the last mile inflation fight is especially difficultSome data was not quite in line with projections.The ECB is not on a predetermined path. A first cut does not imply a series of cuts.Freight costs, protectionism could drive inflation.Pace and extent of ECB rate

As the opening bell rings on the major US exchanges, the major indices are trading higher. Having said that the NASDAQ index was up over 200 points in premarket trading and is currently up only 136 points. Having said that with the declines this week, any gain is accepted at this point. A snapshot of

The major European indices have bounced back in trading today with all the indices higher. A snapshot of the closing levels shows: German DAX, +0.68%France CAC +1.22%UK FTSE 100 +1.21%Spain’s Ibex +0.18%Italy’s FTSE MIB +0.12% For the trading week, most of the indices were higher with the exception of Italy’s FTSE MIB German DAX +1.38%France

The bounce today comes as the overall risk mood in markets is also searching for a bit of a respite. S&P 500 futures are now up 0.5%, as equities look to a calmer end to the week. At the same time, AUD/USD is also staving off a drop below the 61.8 Fib retracement level at

The AUDUSD and NZDUSD have been running in tandem this week to the downside, but the NZDUSD has seen more downside momentum. Yesterday, the AUDUSD fell below its key 200 day moving average and 50% retracement near 0.6583 and 0.6579 respectively. The price then increase momentum with a break below the 61.8% retracement of the

The Atlanta Fed GDPNow growth tracker for Q3 is out with its initial estimate. It sees Q3 growth at 2.8%. In their own words: The initial GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the third quarter of 2024 is 2.8 percent on July 26. The initial estimate of second-quarter real

Headlines: All eyes turn to the Fed’s preferred measure of inflation nextUSD/JPY volatility stays in focus after the bounce yesterdayUS futures continue to pull higher on the dayFrance July consumer confidence 91 vs 90 expectedEurozone consumers see inflation at 2.8% in the next 12 months – ECB surveyTrump wants a weaker dollar but will he

The USDCAD broke above the “Red Box” that I have been talking about for weeks and weeks. That led to buying yesterday, but the high extreme price from April could not be broken convincingly and there was a rotation lower. However, buyers did come in near the high of the “Red Box” (see chart below

In the kickstart video for July 26, 2024, I take a look at three other major currency pairs from a technical perspective – the EURUSD, USDJPY and GBPUSD. The EURUSD is trading up and down over the last three trading days. In the buyer’s favor, the low price today stalled ahead of its 38.2% retracement

Prior month 68.2Current condition 62.7 versus 64.1 preliminary and 65.9 last month.Expectation 68.8 versus 67.2 preliminary, and 69.6 last month1 year inflation expectations 2.9% versus 2.9% preliminary and 3.0% last month.5 year inflation expectations 3.0% versus 2.9% preliminary and 3.0% last month A mix of the details compared to the preliminary. Sentiment higher employment areaCurrent

Prior 89; revised to 90 Household confidence improved in July but remains well below the long-term average of 100 still. Expectations for future inflation eased further while the outlook for the financial situation improved slightly, though still remaining in negative territory. This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

Due on Friday, July 26, 2024 at 0830 US Eastern time, the Core PCE data is the focus. You can see the median estimates below in the table. The ranges (why these are important is explained below) of estimates are: Core PCE Price Index m/m -0.1% to +0.2% and for the y/y 2.4% to 2.6%This

That is leading to a much better mood in broader markets so far today. USD/JPY is also now trading up by 0.2% to 154.25 with the dollar keeping marginally lower elsewhere. While still in narrow ranges, EUR/USD and GBP/USD are both up 0.1% to 1.0851 and 1.2865 respectively. Besides that, gold is also seen higher

Sellers continued in the US stocks at the start of the day, especially in the Nasdaq and S&P indices. Each of them continued what was started yesterday when both had their worst trading day since the end of 2022. For the S&P it fell -36.17 points before bottoming. For the Nasdaq it tumbled -308.45 points

I posted this during the Asian time zone, repeating it here. Before I do, check this out: — Due at 0830 US Eastern time, the Core PCE data is the focus. You can see the median estimates below in the table. The ranges (why these are important is explained below) of estimates are: Core PCE

Greg had the US growth data for Q2 here: US GDP Advanced for Q2 2.8% vs 2.0% estimate 2.8% vs. 2% expected is a huge beat. Bank of America says the economy “remains on robust footing”. Got that right. In brief from their note: 2Q US GDP growth … even stronger than our above-consensus forecast

Kanda is in Brazil for the meeting of central bankers and finance ministers from Group of 20 nations. Japan’s Finance Ministry’s Vice Finance Minister for International Affairs Kanda. He is the official who will instruct the BOJ to intervene, when he judges it necessary. Often referred to as Japan’s ‘top currency diplomat’. Atsushi Mimura takes

Prior month core PCE 2.6%Core PCE MoM 0.2% versus 0.1% estimate. Unrounded was lower than the 0.2% gain at 0.188%Core PCE urine year 2.6% versus 2.5% estimate. Last month 2.6%PCE MoM 0.1% vs 0.1% estimate. The unrounded was lower than 0.1% at 0.0788%PCE YoY 2.5% versus 2.5% estimate and 2.6% priorPersonal income +0.2% versus 0.4%

As the North American session begins, the AUD is the strongest and the JPY is the weakest. That combination reverses what has been more of a familiar theme with the AUD (or NZD) weakest and the JPY the strongest. Not surprisingly, there is a rebound in US stocks in the pre-market which is helping the

German DAX futures -0.1%French CAC 40 futures +0.2%UK FTSE futures +0.2% Meanwhile, S&P 500 futures are up 0.4%, Nasdaq futures up 0.5%, and Dow futures also up 0.4%. That points to a steadier risk mood but again, it is still early in the day. Wall Street will have the final say once again as always.

Today’s data, may help the Fed with their decision next week (and going forward), as the “favored measure of inflation” (the core PCE) will be released at 8:30 AM ET. A review of the economic data to be released today, will be highlighted by that PCE data (and Personal income and spending) along with the

Among registered voters, GOP Trump holds a 48% to 46% lead over Dem Harris. The key here is “registered” voters. You would expect that if a registered Democrat or registered Republican, you are probably back in your own camp. Prior to Biden stepping out of the race, GOP Trump probably had some of the registered

Reuters with the report, citing a Morgan Stanley said in commentary to institutional clients on Thursday: Computer-driven macro hedge fund strategies on Wednesday sold $20 billion in equitiesset to shed at least more $25 billion over the next weekone of the largest risk-unwinding events in a decade “The volatility of the last two weeks started

The idea here is that Trump wants to be the people’s man. He wants to boost opportunities for domestic manufacturing and that means making production in the US more attractive. To achieve that, his go to will be to aim for a weaker currency. But realistically, can he make that happen? On the surface, it

The changes among dollar pairs are relatively light, with USD/JPY continuing to stay in focus amid the volatility and swings. The pair dipped towards 152.00 in trading yesterday before recovering back to 153.70-80 levels currently. There were some light swings in Asia and one can expect more before the close today. In terms of data,

Broader markets are seeking a respite today and if that is to hold, it will need the next key US inflation indicator to play ball. So far, risk trades are sensing some relief today after a rough week. But can it hold through until the weekend? The expectation for the US PCE price index is

Rachel Reeves is the new UK government’s Chancellor of the Exchequer: Says there is still more work to do on ‘Pillar 1’ tax agreement, optimistic for agreement by AutumnWants tax burden on working people to be lower, but will not make unfunded commitmentsWill make statement on Monday about the state of public finances, public spending

Reuters have the piece from a Citi report on politics / oil. In brief: Trump presidency could be net bearish for oil prices combination of factors including tariffs and oil-friendly policies, and pushing the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and allies (OPEC+) to release more oil into the market The main bullish risk for

Life insurance is often viewed purely as a means of financial protection for loved ones. However, it also presents unique opportunities for traders looking to unlock additional capital. In the UK, using life insurance as a financial tool can provide traders with a flexible and secure way to boost their trading funds. This article delves

Eurostoxx +0.1%Germany DAX -0.4%France CAC 40 +0.2%UK FTSE +0.4%Spain IBEX -0.2%Italy FTSE MIB -0.1% It’s been a mixed week for European indices, though a really poor one for French stocks. The CAC 40 is still down 1.2% this week even after accounting for the slight gains to start the day. US futures are holding in

Median expectations for inflation over the next 12 months seen at 2.8% (unchanged vs May)Median expectations for inflation three years ahead seen at 2.3% (unchanged)Median rate of perceived inflation over the previous 12 months seen at 4.5% (previously 4.9%)Economic growth expectations for the next 12 months seen at -0.9% (previously -0.8%) The headline finding is

There aren’t any major expiries to take note of on the day. As such, traders will be left to their own devices again for the most part in the session ahead. USD/JPY volatility will remain a factor, alongside the overall risk mood. The latter is slightly better today as US futures look for a bit

The People’s Bank of China set the onshore yuan (CNY) reference rate for the trading session ahead. USD/CNY is the onshore yuan. Its permitted to trade plus or minus 2% from this daily reference rate.CNH is the offshore yuan. USD /CNH has no restrictions on its trading range.A significantly stronger or weaker rate than expected

The low yesterday touched 151.93 and that resonated with the May low before catching a bounce. The drive lower fell short of testing the 200-day moving average (blue line), seen at 151.58 currently. But still, sellers are in control with price having dropped by 4.5% already in July trading. The pair might be slightly calmer

Info via Reuters: As northern Australia re-emerges as a strategically vital Indo-Pacific location amid rising tensions with China, the United States has quietly begun constructing hundreds of millions of dollars’ worth of facilities there to support B-52 bombers, F-22 stealth fighters, and refuelling and transport aircraftpart of a larger effort to distribute U.S. forces around

People’s Bank of China USD/CNY reference rate is due around 0115 GMT. The People’s Bank of China (PBOC), China’s central bank, is responsible for setting the daily midpoint of the yuan (also known as renminbi or RMB). The PBOC follows a managed floating exchange rate system that allows the value of the yuan to fluctuate

Decline in US Stocks Continues, Tech Giants Witness Major LossesYellen says market should determine exchange ratesNYT Sienns College Poll: Trump 48%. Harris 46% among registered votersUS treasury auctions off $44 billion of the 7 year notes at a high yield of 4.162%Ex inventories, GDP Q1 is near 1.80%%. GDP Q2 adjusted is near 2.0%. Not

In the Kickstart video today, I talked about two things that had to happen in the EURUSD if the buyers were to take back control. Getting above the 100-hour MA (blue line on the chart above) Getting above the 1.0872 level Requirement #1 was successful but #2 was not. Buyers turned to sellers on the

Tokyo CPI for July 2024 Excluding Fresh Food & Energy 1.5% y/y expected 1.6%, prior 1.8% Excluding Fresh Food 2.2% y/y expected 2.2%, prior 2.1% Headline CPI 2.2% expected 2.3%, prior 2.3% USD/JPY fell earlier: USD/JPY on the move in early Asia Not a lot of change since then: **** Tokyo area inflation data: National-level

The Reserve Bank of New Zealand have updated its Monetary Policy Handbook on the RBNZ website. Handbook is intended to support the New Zealand public’s understanding of monetary policy and to support new members of the MPC to establish themselves in their rolesexplains New Zealand’s monetary policy framework, outlines some of the concepts and tools

The Bank of Japan meet next week. Plans for reduced Japanese Government Bond buying are expected to be detailed. The question of a rate hike is an open one, but the consensus expectation is for on hold. Tokyo area inflation data is due today: National-level CPI data for this month will follow in about three

US inflation (PCE) data due Friday – here are the critical ranges to watchUS military is building infrastructure in northern Australia – wary of a China crisisBank of Japan meet next week, a 0.1% rate hike is around 65% pricedThe RBNZ’s guide for members of its Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) – link to full textGoldman

Via the Wall Street Journal, a summary of forecasts from investment banks and others: I’ll have the ranges to be aware of posted soon. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

Good morning, afternoon and evening all. Any charts, technical analysis, trade ideas, thoughts, views, ForexLive traders would like to share and discuss with fellow ForexLive traders, please do so:. Happy Friday everyone! This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

No fresh news nor other catalysts/ The yen is trading in an an illiquid fashion following its wild swings. Earlier: Japan’s Kanda says told G20 that excessive FX volatility has negative impact on economyTokyo area July inflation data: Headline 2.2% y/y (prior 2.3%)USD/JPY on the move in early Asia This article was written by Eamonn

Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen spoke from a new conference Brazil, where she is attending a meeting with central bankers and finance ministers from Group of 20 nations. Yellen was answering questions re Trump’s comments in a Bloomberg interview on a “big currency problem” with the dollar. Trump said he hears from manufacturers that “nobody wants

ANZ Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence for July 2024 in NZ. Improved to 87.9 in July: from June’s 83.2still at low levels The ANZ-Roy Morgan consumer confidence index above 100 shows optimism, while below that indicates pessimism. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

The GBPUSD has traded to a new low and with it is testing a cluster of support targets. Those levels come between 1.2845 to 1.2860. The low just reached 1.2852. Move below and the break higher this week starts to break down more. Find the buyers here, and its a good place to base and

The NASDAQ index has had a impressive rebound from lows. At session lows, the NASDAQ index was down -308.45 points. The subsequent run back higher took the index to a gain of 202.05. Overall a range of 510 points from low to high. However technically, the high price extended up to test and surpass briefly

The Bank of Canada rates by 25 basis points yesterday to 4.5%. It was the second consecutive meeting that the central bank rates. The price of the USDCAD was trading within a key topside swing area between 1.3784 and 1.3803. That topside swing area formed the ceiling of an up-and-down trading range going back to

A view on whats to come from Commodity Trading Advisers (CTAs) in the event of continued falling stocks: Basically a ‘follow the momentum’ strategy. – Its already getting interesting: VIX has closed at its highest since April 19 This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

The NASDAQ index is now down -600 points or -3.34%. That’s its worst trading day since November 2, 2022 when the index fell -3.36%. The price is approaching its 38.2% retracement of the move up from the April 22 low. That level comes in at 17353.82. The low price as reached 17391.94 (WHoops – now

The trend is your friend in trading this week. In FX, the Japanese yen has been the outright leader with the antipodean currencies struggling. The former owes to exhaustion on the part of buyers but also arguably some anticipation flows ahead of the BOJ next week. USD/JPY has taken quite the tumble since Japan intervened

Fundamental Overview The USD has been rallying steadily against the major currencies since last Wednesday, although it’s unclear what has been behind the move. From the monetary policy perspective, nothing has changed as the market continues to expect at least two rate cuts by the end of the year and sees some chances of a

High-yieldWI level at the time of the auction 4.166%Bid the cover 2.64X vs six-month average of 2.54X. Tail -0.4 basis points vs six-month average of 0.0 basis pointsDealers 8.87% vs six-month average of 14.2%Directs (domestic buyers) 16.76% vs six-month average of 17.5%Indirects (international buyers) 74.38% vs six-month average of 68.3% AUCTION GRADE: A Strong demand

The GDP data in the Q1 came in at 1.4%. Today we learned the advanced GDP for Q2 came in at 2.8%. If you looked at the component contributors or subtractions from the total GDP number: For Q1: Consumption +0.92%.Investment, +0.77%Government, +0.31%Net imports/exports -0.65% The sum comes to the GDP of 1.4% For Q2: Consumption,

The NASDAQ index move down to a low of 17352.93. In a prior post I outlined the area as a target level. The level corresponds with the 38.2% retracement of the move-up from the May low. That level comes in at 17353.82. It also corresponds roughly with the gap from June 11. That level came

Prior 0.1%Durable goods -6.6% versus +0.3% expected. Worst since April 2020Durable goods ex transport +0.5% versus +0.2% estimate. Prior 0.1%Durable goods ex Defense -7.0% versus unchanged last month (revised from -0.2%)Nondefense capital goods ex air +1.0% versus +0.2% expected. Prior month -0.9% versus -0.6% previously reported The end of year Fed projections shows -69 basis

Japan benchmark index lower again today, unsurprisingly of course after the falls on Wall Street: Forexlive Americas FX news wrap 24 Jul:Watch out below! Broad indices worst day since 2022 This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

Prior quarter 1.4%GDP Q2 2.8 % vs 2.0% estimate. The Atlanta Fed GDP now estimate was at 2.6%GDP sales 2.0% versus 1.9% estimate. Prior 2.0%GDP consumer spending 2.3% vs 1.5% priorGDP deflator 2.3% versus 2.6% estimate. Prior 3.1%GDP core PCE prices 2.9% versus 2.7% estimate. Prior 3.7% PCE prices advanced 2.6% vs 3.4% priorPCE ex

The WSJ Timiraos in his X tweets, speculates that the core PCE data from the GDP which came in higher at 2.9% vs 2.7% expected, does not imply the core PCE for June to be released on Friday will be different than the 0.18% gains expected. However, to square to the higher 2.9% data from

The major European indices are closing mixed thanks to the UK FTSE 100 which rose by 0.40%. The majority of the indices, however, did close lower. A snapshot of the closing levels shows: German DAX, -0.48%France CAC -1.15%UK FTSE 100 +0.40%Spain’s Ibex -0.56%Italy’s FTSE MIB -2.03% As London/European traders exit, the major US indices have

The EURUSD has had an up and down today, while the stock market gyrates. The moves lower were able to get below the 38.2% of the move up from the June low to the July high. That level comes in at 1.08394. The price also fell below that retracement level yesterday, but snapped back to

There aren’t any major expiries to take note of on the day. As such, trading sentiment will continue to revolve around the same factors driving price action in the last few days. That being bids into the Japanese yen and selling in the commodity currencies amid a more defensive risk backdrop. For EUR/USD, there are

BlackRock’s comments on the Bank of Japan are in the context of the firm holding a ‘high conviction’ view on higher Japanese stocks: Japan’s economic revival — and the return of inflation — “makes its equity market one of our strongest convictions,” the BlackRock Investment Institute said in its mid-year outlook. The firm expect the

Fundamental Overview The USD has been rallying steadily against the major currencies since last Wednesday on the back of general risk-off sentiment, although it’s unclear what has triggered the move. From the monetary policy perspective, nothing has changed as the market continues to expect at least two rate cuts by the end of the year

Growth in the first half a year near 2%that is likely to begin to signal they may be ready to go in SeptemberThese numbers are not pointing to a recession at this timeProductivity increases not really there yetThe economy is slowing but is slowing to the trend pace of growth. That’s a soft landing This

The selling in the NASDAQ index continues with the index now down -1.75%. Yesterday the index fell over -3.6% it’s worst trading day since December 2022. Looking at the daily chart, the price is approaching its 50% midpoint of the move up from the April 2024 low. That level comes in at 16976.54. Below that,

The firm argues that the dollar rally during the period of 2021 to 2022 means that there is still scope for a deeper correction to the downside momentum in the greenback moving forward. They don’t expect the dollar to retest the lows seen towards the end of 2020 but says that the currency should move

Overview of Sector Performance Today’s stock market presents a vibrant tapestry of sectoral performances, capturing the investor sentiment and economic currents. While technology stocks like Microsoft (MSFT) and Apple (AAPL) show moderate gains, the healthcare sector is notably struggling, with significant downturns visible in Lilly (LLY) and Vertex Pharmaceuticals (VRTX). Market Mood and Trends The

On July 22, the price of Bitcoin reached a high of $68,364 and retested that level during Monday’s trade on July 24. After this retest, Bitcoin experienced a downward move, dipping below its rising 200-hour moving average. However, the momentum on these dips was limited. Recently, Bitcoin’s price has settled between its 100-hour moving average

As the North American session trading gets underway, the major indices are mixed. Expect volatile trading as the market digests the next moves after the largest declines since the end of 2022 for the broader S&P and NASDAQ indices yesterday. Japan’s Nikkei index also fell the most since 2021. So markets are unsettled: A snapshot

The CHF been more of a safe-haven currency as the stocks move lower. That has helped to push the USDCHF lower this week. In trading today, the USDCHF fell below key support defined by a number of swing lows and highs going back to February and March 2023. That area comes between 0.8819 and 0.8825.

Headlines: USD/JPY fall draws in the next key support levelUSD/JPY Technical Analysis – 152.00 is the mother of all levelsBacks against the wall for stocks in July tradingGermany July Ifo business climate index 87.0 vs 88.9 expectedEurozone June M3 money supply 2.2% vs. 1.8% y/y expectedFrance July business confidence 94 vs 99 priorUK July CBI

Both the AUDUSD and the NZDUSD have fallen sharply in trading today. Fundamentals are playing a key role as China slows and worries about US growth also is weighing. That has commodities moving to the downside. Stocks moving lower also contributes to the risk off sentiment. The AUDUSD moved away from both its 100 and

The economy is seen as “recovering moderately, although it recently appears to be pausing”. Besides that, the government downgraded their view on exports to say that the situation is moving sideways. In June, they noted that the recovery in exports was stalling instead. On consumption, the government held their view that the pickup in the

M3 Money Supply Y/Y 2.2% vs. 1.8% expected and 1.6% prior.Loans to Households Y/Y 0.3% vs. 0.5% expected and 0.3% prior.Loans to Companies Y/Y 0.7% vs. 0.3% prior. This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at www.forexlive.com.

The futures are applying modest changes in the major indices I have the open, but I get a feeling that it will be a volatile day once again. Yesterday bought the NASDAQ and S&P fell by the most since the end of 2022. Ouch. Futures are currently implying S&P index +1.5 points Dow Industrial Average

Earnings results update, 24 July AMC Based on the earnings results of companies reporting last night, here’s a summary focusing on the moves made by these companies and their possible impact on the overall market indices such as SPX and NDX. Emphasis is placed on the most popular companies and brands that are likely to

The kickstart video takes a look at three the major currency pairs – the EURUSD, USDJPY and GBPUSD from a technical perspective. US stocks are opening with modest gains after better-than-expected GDP. The durable goods orders fell sharply but transportation orders which can be volatile did the damage and could rebound next month. Initial jobless

As the North American session begins, the JPY is the strongest of the major currencies (again), while the AUD (and NZD) is the weakest (again). The USD is mixed with declines vs the JPY and the CHF (they are the safe haven – again), offset by gains vs the AUD and NZD (they are the

The barrage of easing measures this week was meant to bolster the economy and shore up confidence in domestic markets. However, it has been anything but that. In trading yesterday, the Chinese yuan had weakened to its lowest level since November against the dollar before bids came through. And that is before the sudden wave

Yesterday, the USDCHF moved higher and found support at the 200-day moving average early in the day, shifting the bias to the upside. It climbed above the 38.2% retracement level of the last move lower at 0.89072, extending to a high of 0.8923 before slowing into the close. Today, however, the price fell back below

Suzuki says he is monitoring political developments in the US. He didn’t comment on FX. – USD/JPY is moving the way Japanese authorities desire, so they may as well avoid comments that might be read the wrong way. IMHO anyway. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

Fundamental Overview Bitcoin eventually got hit by the general risk-off sentiment in the markets as the cryptocurrency fell back to the 64000 level. From a fundamental perspective, nothing has changed as the data is still pointing to resilient growth, falling inflation and the Fed cutting at very least two times this year. As a reminder,

The selloff in the last two weeks has outweighed the gains from the two weeks before. The S&P 500 is now down 0.6% on the month, following an over 2% drop yesterday. Tech shares are bearing the brunt of those declines, with the Nasdaq seeing its worst daily showing since November 2022. So, where does

The price of USDCAD is extending to new session highs, and also moving above swing area resistance up at 1.38033. Going back to April, the price has been able to stay below that level and waffle back-and-forth between 1.3589 on the downside and 1.38033 on the top side. Getting above that level now will have

US futures were largely steadier in Asia trading, with S&P 500 futures seen up 0.2% at the time. That comes despite heavy selling in the region, with the Nikkei closing down by over 3% and posting its lowest close since late April. This continues to reaffirm that sentiment is extremely fragile currently and stocks are

Initial jobless claims 235K vs. 238K expected and 243K prior. Continuing Claims 1851K vs. 1860K expected and 1867K prior. This shows that the labour market is still doing good. This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at www.forexlive.com.

Prior 88.6Current conditions 87.1 vs 88.5 expectedPrior 88.3Expectations 86.9 vs 89.0 expectedPrior 89.0; revised to 88.8 The data from the euro area this week has been rather poor to say the least. The readings here reaffirm softer business conditions in the German economy, alongside a worsening outlook as well. Again, if the economy is the

UBS are projecting a recovery for commodity prices, including oil, gold and more. In a note analysts say that concerns over sluggish Chinese demand have weighed on commodity prices in recent weeks. But prices will recover due to “solid demand and limited supply”. lower crude exports could help tighten the oil market copper prices have

The low just a moment earlier touched 152.19 and the pair is down well over 900 pips already from the highs since early July. The breakdown earlier in the week saw price fall below the 155.00 mark and also the 100-day moving average (red line). Now, that shifts the focus to key support from the

Eurostoxx -1.3%Germany DAX -1.2%France CAC 40 -1.6%UK FTSE -0.9%Spain IBEX -1.2%Italy FTSE MIB -2.0% The pain train continues with the mood music leaning towards the softer side to start the session. The CAC 40 index has now broken below its recent consolidation range to its lowest since January: This article was written by Justin Low

Prior -18 The manufacturing order book balance worsened again in July but the good news at least is that the expectations balance increased from 13 in June to 25 this month. The latter is the highest reading since March 2022. However, quarterly business optimism declined to -9 from +9 in April, marking the softest such

US President Biden speaking from the Oval Office in his stepping aside from the election. Its as expected: “I have decided the best way forward is to pass the torch to a new generation” “that is the best way to unite our nation” He’s right but he is still a politician, and all this is

This is a useful read from Reuters on the difficulties China is facing, pushing on a string. China is awash with money and its growth is slowing. To avert a prolonged stagnation, President Xi Jinping’s administration may need to spend its way out of the problem. Yet this and other classic remedies to such a

Major US stock indices close that session lows with the broader indices having their worst trading day since the end of 2022. NASDAQ index has its worst day since November 2 2022. The NASDAQ is closing down -3.64% S&P index has its worst day since December 15, 2022. The S&P is closing down -2.32% The

Alberta is one of the thirteen provinces and territories of Canada. Authorities there are asking for help from the Canadian military as the province’s wildfire situation continues to worsen. Alberta’s public safety minister Mike Ellis: “I have requested assistance from the Canadian Armed Forces to ensure all resources are brought to bear on this situation”

Implied volatility is a component of an option pricing model. In a nutshell, an annualized expected move in an asset (USD/JPY in this case), adjusted for the expiration duration. Higher IV means higher priced options (more expensive to lock in ‘protection’ via options). Volatility is up because of the large yen seings we are seeing.

German DAX futures -0.6%French CAC 40 futures -0.8%UK FTSE futures -0.4% French stocks look poised to break the key support outlined here, and that bodes ill for sentiment among regional equities in the latter stages this week. US futures were steadier earlier as well but S&P 500 futures are now down 0.06% as the mood

The European session is pretty empty on the data front with just the German IFO as the main highlight. The IFO index is similar to the German Composite PMI as they are correlated, so it shouldn’t be market moving. The important data will be released in the American session as we get the US Advance

Earlier: Chinese bank (one of the world’s largest banks) cuts time deposit rates Agricultural Bank has cut. Now China Construction Bank also. ADDED: Bank of Communications cuts This all follows a cut from the PBOC on Monday: ForexLive Asia-Pacific FX news wrap: A series of easings from the People’s Bank of China This article was

The contraction for South Korea’s economy in the second quarter was unexpected: Advance Q2 GDP -0.2% q/q, the sharpest contraction in six quarters expected +0.1%, prior +1.3% (this 1.3% growth in Q1 was the fastest since Q4 2021)strong exportsconsumer spending fell For the y/y, came in at +2.3% expected +2.5%, prior +3.3% Attention now turns

William Dudley served as president of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York from 2009 to 2018. Greg had the headlines from him overnight: Fed’s Dudley: It may be too late to fend off a recession Dudley’s long held previous view was for a rate cut later this year, but: “The facts have changed, so

Earlier: Japan finance minister Suzuki spoke from Brazil – didn’t comment on FX levels This now from Kanda on China. He didn’t mention FX either: Won’t comment on current situation in FX – Japan’s Finance Ministry’s Vice Finance Minister for International Affairs Kanda. He is the official who will instruct the BOJ to intervene, when

Services confidence 95Prior 101Manufacturing confidence 95Prior 99 There were declines across all business sectors, with employment conditions also worsening on the month. The latter fell from 100 in June to 96 in July. Overall, business are pointing to renewed weakness in demand conditions as the main cause. This article was written by Justin Low at

ING: “PBOC surprises markets with an off-schedule 20bp cut to the MLF”Horrible images out of Jasper, Canada – fire danger in Alberta now is extremeUSD/JPY implied volatility surges to its highest since the first week of MayJapan’s Nikkei index is more than 10% down from its recent highPeople’s Bank of China reduces 1 year Medium-term

People’s Bank of China USD/CNY reference rate is due around 0115 GMT. The People’s Bank of China (PBOC), China’s central bank, is responsible for setting the daily midpoint of the yuan (also known as renminbi or RMB). The PBOC follows a managed floating exchange rate system that allows the value of the yuan to fluctuate

The People’s Bank of China set the onshore yuan (CNY) reference rate for the trading session ahead. USD/CNY is the onshore yuan. Its permitted to trade plus or minus 2% from this daily reference rate.CNH is the offshore yuan. USD /CNH has no restrictions on its trading range.A significantly stronger or weaker rate than expected

European Central Bank President Lagarde will be appearing at Paris Summit 2024 Sport for Sustainable Development (S4SD) “Faster, Higher, Stronger – Together for a Better Future” in Paris, France. This doesn’t sound like the sort of event that’ll bring forth comments relevant to traders. But, you never know. Due at 1500 GMT / 1100 US

VIX has closed at its highest since April 19Big Wins and Misses: IBM and Chipotle Beat Expectations, Ford Falls ShortNASDAQ index has its worst trading day since November 2, 2022Crude oil settles at $77.59Bitcoin consolidating between 100 and 200 hour moving averagesU.S. Treasury auctions off $70 billion of the 5-year note at a high yield