Business sentiment 21% vs 17% priorFirms’ sales outlooks are mostly unchanged from last quarter and remain more pessimistic than average Businesses tied to discretionary spending reported particularly weak sales expectations, while those tied to essential spending see population growth continuing to benefit their sales.Investment spending plans also remain below averageThe share of firms reporting labour […]

Prior was +2.4%Manufacturing sales +0.4% vs +0.2% expectedPrior manufacturing sales +1.1%Wholesale inventories +0.9%Inventory-to-sales ratio increased from 1.53 in April to 1.55 in May Sales declined in five of the seven subsectors in wholesale sales, with the largest decline coming from the motor vehicle and motor vehicle parts and accessories subsector, which fell 3.8%. Wholesale sales

Closing changes: Stoxx 600 -1.0%German DAX -0.8%UK FTSE 100 -0.9%French CAC -1.2%Italy MIB -0.4%Spain IBEX -0.8% The Stoxx 600 isn’t quite ready to break out yet. This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

Betting markets have boosted Trump’s Presidential odds after the failed assassination attempt on the weekend. In equities, shares of the meme-stock social network $DJT are up 70% premarket and I would expect some others to follow along. For the broader market, S&P 500 futures are up 22 points and I wonder if that’s underpriced given

Next week’s Bank of Canada rate decision is a big one. The market is pricing in a 76% chance of a rate cut, which is a contract high and has been steadily creeping up. Recent data has been slipping and the housing market is suffering. Critically, this could be the second-consecutive cut and could signal

Good morning, afternoon and evening all. Any charts, technical analysis, trade ideas, thoughts, views, ForexLive traders would like to share and discuss with fellow ForexLive traders, please do so: This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

If you go by PredictIt, it looks like Peter Thiel might get his guy in the #2 position in the White House. Hurting Vance might be his previous comments about Trump, where he called him “cultural heroin” and “noxious”. He also liked a tweet saying Trump committed “serial sexual assault.” “I’m a Never Trump guy,”

As the North American session begins, the EUR is the strongest and the NZD is the weakest. The USD is modestly higher after the shocking assassination attempt on Presidential candidate Trump over the weekend. With expectations of a Trump victory rising, the knee-jerk reaction by the markets was for higher stocks and higher yields –

Fundamental Overview The USD weakened across the board last week following another soft US CPI report and benign Jobless Claims figures. The market not only fully priced in a rate cut in September but also started to price in some chances of a back-to-back rate cut in November. Overall, we had a goldilocks data release

US politics is in focus to start the week and we’re now seeing markets gearing towards a Trump victory. He was already odds on to beat Biden if the latter is to stick it through to head into battle in November. But after the failed assassination attempt over the weekend, Trump’s odds have soared much

Gold is at the best levels of the day, up $23 to $2433 with about half those gains in the past few minutes. You can always craft a narrative for gold because it’s such a chameleon. I’d imagine the bulls today are looking at bonds and a Republican sweep and seeing higher fiscal spending and

The USDCHF moved higher in the Asian session on the buying after the weekend assassination attempt. However, after testing a cluster of moving averages, buyers turned to sellers and has now pushed the price all the way down to new session lows, has breached below the 50% midpoint of the move up from the June

Happy Monday and certainly a happier one than it could have been. The Fed chair spoke twice last week so it’s difficult to imagine he will change his tune but he did get the CPI since his second day of testimony so there is a chance he tilts more dovishly. He speaks at 12:30 pm

Eurostoxx -0.6%Germany DAX -0.4%France CAC 40 -0.9%UK FTSE -0.8%Spain IBEX -0.6%Italy FTSE MIB -0.5% For French stocks, it is getting checked back at short-term resistance (as seen below) after the rebound last week. The Eurogroup will be discussing fiscal issues to start the week, so that is perhaps keeping regional investors more guarded. It’s a

Politics is truly a game of inches. We were an inch away from a very different Monday morning but the bullet missed and now a Florida judge has dismissed Trump’s classified documents case citing violation of the appointments clause. I’m not exactly sure what that clause is but I’m told it will be appealed. However

Today’s stock market presented a patchwork of performances, with significant movement observed in the technology sector, particularly semiconductors and consumer electronics. Tech and Consumer Electronics Lead the Charge The heatmap of today’s trading activity highlights a robust performance in the tech sector. Apple (AAPL) significantly outpaced its peers with a gain of 2.26%, indicating strong

The US stocks are opening with gains. Markets are shrugging off the assassination attempt and at the same time, increasing former Pres. Trumps odds at being elected President. That implies a softer Fed (new Fed Chair?), less regulation, lower taxes. The negative is less immigration and deportation of illegal immigrants, and higher tariffs. That may

The dust is settling after the assassination attempt of former Pres. Trump. The yield curve has steepened as the expectations are for higher tariffs (trade war/isolationism), deportation of immigrants and less immigration (potentially inflationary) and perhaps getting a new Fed chair who would look to lower rates. Technically, both the EURUSD and the GBPUSD extended

The European Central Bank statement is due on Thursday 18 July at 1215 GMT / 0815 US Eastern time no change to interest rates is widely expected Lagarde’s press conference follows a half hour later. From the Deutsche Bank preview, in brief: we expect the ECB to leave policy unchangedECB is not on a pre-determined

This comes after the miss on Q2 numbers earlier today here. Goldman Sachs is cutting their 2024 GDP forecast for China to 4.9%, down from 5.0% previously. Meanwhile, JP Morgan slashed their estimate to 4.7% compared to 5.2% previously. On the revision, JP Morgan continues to argue that the Chinese economy remains “fragile, unstable and

ICYMI, China’s poor Q2 GDP data is here: China June Industrial output +5.3% y/y (expected +5.0%) Retail sales +2.0% (3.3%% exp) The economic growth data missed both q/q and y/y. NBS spokesperson: 5% GDP growth in h1 ‘hard won’Businesses face relatively big pressures and key sectors face many risks since this yearChina’s economy remains key

China new home prices continue their slump. Despite all the support measures being provided for the sector recovery is not yet in sight. On a brighter note used home prices dropped 0.85% m/m, slightly slower than the drop in May. Still to come: Economic calendar Asia Monday, 15 July 2024 – Chinese economic activity data,

Forex Expo Dubai 2024 is thrilled to announce Emirates as the Official Airline Partner for this year’s event. Scheduled to take place from October 7th to 8th at the iconic Dubai World Trade Centre, the Expo promises to be the largest gathering of global forex leaders, traders, and innovators in the online trading industry. Premier

Prior -0.1%; revised to 0.0% Euro area industrial output slumped by less than estimated in May with the breakdown as follows: This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

The PBoC has kept the 1-year MLF interest rate unchanged at 2.5%, as expected Injects 100bn yuan via a one-year MLF 103bn yuan come due on Wednesdaynet drain of 3bn yuan in MLF – What is the MLF? The PBOC’s MLF rate is a benchmark interest rate that banks in China can use to borrow

Looking at the breakdown for the month, producer prices were up 0.1% but import prices were marked down by 0.2%. In particular, there were lower prices for petroleum products, petroleum and natural gas, as well as for motor vehicles. This was offset by higher prices in non-ferrous metals and products made therefrom, green coffee, leather

Domestic sight deposits CHF 450.3 bn vs CHF 444.4 bn prior After weeks of decline, Swiss sight deposits look to be stabilising a bit. That might indicate the SNB is staying more on the sidelines in the last two to three weeks. Here’s the trend: This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

European Central Bank meeting this week – preview – rate cuts seen September and DecemberChina plenum meeting against the background of calls for more economic stimulusChina Stats spokesperson says demand not sufficientChina June Industrial output +5.3% y/y (expected +5.0%) Retail sales +2.0% (3.3%% exp)China June new house prices -4.5% y/y (prior -3.9%)The PBoC has kept

Fundamental Overview The USD weakened across the board last week following another soft US CPI report and benign Jobless Claims figures. The market not only fully priced in a rate cut in September but also started to price in some chances of a back-to-back rate cut in November. Overall, we had a goldilocks data release

Rate cuts by year-end Fed: 63 bps (95% probability of no change at the next meeting) ECB: 48 bps (96% probability of no change at the next meeting) BoE: 51 bps (50% probability of rate cut at the next meeting) BoC: 62 bps (75% probability of rate cut at the next meeting) RBNZ: 46 bps

In case you missed the big news over the weekend in the US: Former Pres. Trump rushed off stage after apparent shots firedStatement from Former Pres. Trump after assassination attempt Love him. Hate him. It is no excuse to want another person dead. Trump ended up just getting a graze on the ear by some

Don’t forget – it’s a big day in China! It’s the MLF day in China – No rate cut expected from the People’s Bank of ChinaEconomic calendar Asia Monday, 15 July 2024 – Chinese economic activity data, also Q2 GDP *** People’s Bank of China USD/CNY reference rate is due around 0115 GMT. The People’s

German DAX futures -0.3%French CAC 40 futures -0.5%UK FTSE futures -0.2% This comes as bond yields are jumping higher as we look towards the session ahead. Treasuries were closed in Asia amid the holiday in Japan but 10-year yields are now marked up by 4.6 bps to 4.233% on the day. US futures are calmer

Unfortunately, I reckon we might get a repeat performance to his comments last week in Congress. Sure, there was the US CPI report in between that and now. But I don’t think Powell will choose to rock the boat again today. It will be too early to be that confident on the inflation outlook, or

New Zealand Performance of Services Index for June 2024, via BusiznessNZ, performed even worse than the appalling May report. June came in at 40.2, second month in a row the lowest level of activity for the sector for a non-COVID lockdown month since the survey began in 2007 prior 43.0Employment sub index @45.6 was at

As it’s usually the case for Mondays, the calendar today is prett empty. In the European session we will get the Eurozone Industrial Production data but that’s not a market moving release and it won’t change anything for the ECB. In the American session, we get the BoC Business Outlook Survey and we will hear

Fundamental Overview Bitcoin rallied strongly over the weekend after a failed attempt to assassinate the former US President Trump. The market reacted positively to the event because he’s been a supporter of the crypto industry and Trump’s odds of winning the election soared. Moreover, we got the news that the German government finally offloaded all

The People’s Bank of China set its Medium-term Lending Facility (MLF) rate on the 15th of each month. The rate is currently 2.5%, and there are wide expectations of no change to the rate today. Also from China today are Q2 GDP and June economic activity data: Economic calendar Asia Monday, 15 July 2024 –

Via Westpac on their outlook for the Reserve Bank of New Zealand. RBNZ’s July OCR Review was markedly less hawkish than May. The RBNZ’s growth forecasts seem to have been significantly downgraded and crucially the RBNZ seems more confident that annual inflation will be below 3% quite soon. The recent QSBO survey likely crystalised the

UBS are wary of much more weakness ahead for the yen in the near term. Citing the backdrop of the rise in JPY after the US CPI report, helped along by Bank of Japan intervention leaning into the weakness for USD/JPY, UBS cite: they expect the differential between US/Japan, but to do so more meaningfully

Key economic indicators from China for June 2024. Industrial Production +5.3% y/y expected 5%, prior 5.6% Retail Sales +2.0% y/y, a substantial miss expected 3.3%, prior 3.7% Fixed Asset Investment (YTD) 3.9% y/y expected 3.9%, prior 4% Unemployment rate 5.0% expected 5.0%, prior 5.0% Q2 GDP 4.7% y/y – big miss expected 5.1%, prior 5.3%

There are a couple to take note of, as highlighted in bold. The first ones are for EUR/USD, centered closely in and around the 1.0900 mark. The ones at the figure level are quite huge in size, so they could act as a magnet on price action for the session ahead. That at least until

Bank of England Monetary Policy Committee member Dhingra spoke on a podcast. Reuters with the info. demand is too soft for inflation to rise sharplynow is the time to start normalising interest rates so we can finally stop squeezing living standards This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

The focus is on Chair Powell, who has recewtnly indicated rate cuts, or at least one, are on the way. This has led to rapid pricing of a September cut. Times below are in GMT / US Eastern time format: 1630/1230 Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell participates in conversation hosted by the Economic Club of

US economic research analysts at Fitch with the heads up on earlier Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) rate cuts: The Fed will be worried (about) additional weakness in the labor market down the roadPowell signalled that the balance of risk between the unemployment rate and inflation is now two-sided and the labour market is now

A little bit of movement in forex markets in the VERY early morning here – its only just after 8am in New Zealand. The movement is in response to the weekend news of a man shot to death at a Trump rally. The shooter was also shot and killed. Greg was on it over the

US President Biden addressing the nation from the White House Oval Office: we need to lower the temperature in politicsno place for this kind of violence, no exceptionsI will continue to speak up for US democracy and the rule of law This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

ICYMI, China’s poor Q2 GDP data is here in this post, a miss for both q/q and y/y: China June Industrial output +5.3% y/y (expected +5.0%) Retail sales +2.0% (3.3%% exp) The reasons behind relatively slow growth in China are not mysterious: protracted property downturnthe property sector is debt-riddenhousehold consumption is weak The poor data

The People’s Bank of China set the onshore yuan (CNY) reference rate for the trading session ahead. USD/CNY is the onshore yuan. Its permitted to trade plus or minus 2% from this daily reference rate.CNH is the offshore yuan. USD /CNH has no restrictions on its trading range.A significantly stronger or weaker rate than expected

Trump is seeking votes from the crypto community, I posted on his efforts here: Trump to speak at Bitcoin 2024 conference in Nashville in late July Political violence is back on the menu in the US. First was the January 6 insurrection which resulted in the injuries and deaths of a number of law enforcement

Biden will be addressing the political violence over the weekend with Trump getting shot at. Biden unlikely to make market-relevant comments. Except to the extent that the weekend events have boosted the USD, Bitcoin, and hit USTs. Trump sustained a graze to his ear. Thankfully nothing more serious for him. Sadly, an attendee at his

A Goldman Sachs Asset Management view on US stoicks for the rest of 2024, in a nutshell: “What do we expect for the rest of the year? Essentially a flattish market” “Our view is that the full-year market return has been achieved in the first half” Citing: earnings growth of the first half of 2024

Note – it’s a holiday in Japan today, markets are closed there. On the data calendar China is the focus. The ‘activity’ data (retail sales, industrial production and investment) for June is expected to have shown a slightly reduced pace of improvement from May. As a heads up, this week brings the third plenum of

This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

UPCOMING EVENTS: Monday: New Zealand Services PMI, PBoC MLF, China Industrial Production and Retail Sales, Eurozone Industrial Production, BoC Business Outlook Survey, Fed Chair Powell. Tuesday: Eurozone ZEW, Canada CPI, US Retail Sales, US NAHB Housing Market Index.Wednesday: New Zealand Q2 CPI, UK CPI, US Housing Starts and Building Permits, US Industrial Production and Capacity

Former President Donald Trump was escorted off stage by Secret Service agents at a rally in Butler, PA, after a series of loud noises, possibly gunshots, were heard. Trump was bloodied but reportedly fine. The source of the noises and if anyone else was injured remains unclear. The rally was declared a crime scene and

Week Ahead 15th-19th July: Mon: Republican Convention, Holiday: Japanese Marine Day, Eurogroup Meeting, Eurogroup Informal meeting ofEnergy Ministers; Chinese GDP (Q2), Industrial Output/Retail Sales (Jun), Swiss PPI (Jun), US NY FedManufacturing (Jul), EZ Industrial Production (Jun); China’s Third Plenum (15-18th July)Tue: Republican Convention; German Wholesale Price Index (Jun), ZEW (Jul), EZ Trade Balance (May), US

Bitcoin technical analysis in this simple 4h chart BTCUSD chart and technical analysis – watch these key levels Bitcoin trading analysis: key points and strategies 🤑📉📈 Bulls’ strategy: 📈 Breakout from yellow bull flag:Target Point 1: Around $59,850.Target Point 2: If Point 1 is breached, aim for approximately $62,000 (anchored VWAP from 22 Jan 2024).Bullish

Crude oil futures are settling the day at $82.21. That is down $0.41 or -0.50%. For the trading week, the price is down -1.21% after closing last week at $83.16. The decline is the first after four consecutive weeks of gains which took the price up from a low during the week of June 3

The US stocks are trading near highs after some declines yesterday. The correction was one day – at least for the S&P and the Nasdaq. The Dow industrial Average rose yesterday as did the small-cap Russell 2000. Today, all the major indices are enjoying strong gains. For the S&P, it erased its -49.37 or -0.88%

The Dow Industrial Average reached an intraday high of 40,257, which would have been sufficient for a record close. The previous record close was set on May 17, when the index closed above 40,000 for the first time ever at 40,003.60. However, late-day selling pushed the price below 40,000, before a last-minute rally brought it

The 2-10 year spread has not been positive since July 2022. The most recent high close (most narrow negative spread) is coming near -16 basis point. Today the spread rose to -27.3 basis point which would be its highest close since January 29. Since June 25, the spread has moved from -50 basis points to

The Dow Industrial Average average can’t close at a record but closes just above 40,000The 2-10 year yield rises to -27.3 basis points. A close here will be highest since Jan 29Crude oil futures settle at $82.21Stock earnings for the quarter were kicked off. What’s on tap for next week?What happens after the first rate

J.P. Morgan, Wells Fargo, and Citigroup kicked off the earnings season today. Yesterday PepsiCo did release its earnings as well. So how does next week’s earnings calendar look? Monday, July 15 Goldman SachsBlackRock Tuesday, Tuesday, July 16 Bank of AmericaUnited health groupProgressiveMorgan Stanley. Charles Schwab.PNCInteractive BrokersJB Hunt Wednesday, July 17 Johnson & JohnsonUnitedAlcoaDiscoverKinder Morgan Thursday,

Won’t say whether forex intervention was conductedWon’t say whether a rate check was conductedCan’t ignore the fact that there was a one-sided speculative move USD/JPY is trading down 100 pips to 157.80 today and it looks like there was at least one round of intervention in the second day of action. This article was written

We’re in the midst of an old-fashioned breakout in the pound. It’s now up in nine of the past 10 days, including three sizeable gains in a row. The election uncertainty has cleared and Starmer isn’t promising tax hikes so the market is happy to invest in a place with a bit of political stability

UMich consumer sentiment data is due at the top of the hour and the consensus is a slight improvement to 68.5 from 68.2. Keep an eye on the 1-year and 5-year inflation numbers too as both priors were at 3.0%. This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

Business NZ Manufacturing PMI for June 2024 collapses to 41.1, its 15th consecutive month of contraction prior 47.2 The report from Business NZ is titled “Freefall”. Sounds about right. New Zealand’s manufacturing sector PMI: third lowest value for a non-COVID lockdown monthBusinessNZ’s Director, Advocacy Catherine Beard said that the freefall in activity from May to

USD/JPY is back near the post-CPI lows in what looks line another round of intervention from Japanese authorities. BOJ data suggests Japan may have spent over ¥3 trillion on intervention yesterday, or about $22 billion, which is more than I would have expected given the momentum they had on their side. It suggests that dollar

Via local media: Two Russian-born Australian citizens have been charged with espionage, marking the first time charges have been laid under laws introduced in 2018. The pair — a married couple — were arrested as part of a joint investigation between the Australian Federal Police (AFP) and the Australian Security Intelligence Commission (ASIO). Police allege

Democratic House leader Hakeem Jeffries met with the President yesterday and released a readout today. It certainly doesn’t read like an endorsement. Dear Colleague:Over the past several days, House Democrats have engaged in a thoughtful and extensive discussion about the future of our country, during a time when freedom, democracy and the economic well-being of

USD/JPY sellers hit the market yet-again, once again sending the pair down to 157.50 but failing to break the earlier low. This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

If there is someone on CNBC, that I like, it is Josh Brown from Ritholz Wealth Management. He does his homework. He is not opposed to using technicals (in fact he often relies on it). He accepts defeat. He lets his wins run. He is not perfect of course, but he makes a lot of

This week’s CPI data showed that China has room for policy stimulus and its lackluster economic performance certainly argues for it. There is some optimism with some Chinese stocks climbing this week (from low levels). The leadership meeting will outline efforts to promote advanced manufacturing, revise the tax system to curb debt risks, manage a

Last June was -347B This is a small slice of good news but there are big questions about the US fiscal path with 6-7% deficit in a strong economy. This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

The GBPUSD, EURUSD, and USDJPY have all stretched to key targets today as the USD got hit. However, after reaching those target there has been some modest profit taking/selling/buying (dependent on the direction of the pair). The NZDUSD is also in that boat as it returned to the 200 bar MA on the 4-hour chart

Market Overview Today’s trading session reveals a mixed yet resilient market landscape, with notable performances across various sectors. The stock market heatmap offers a colorful glimpse into the day’s performances, indicating a day of both opportunities and setbacks. Technology and Semiconductors: A Spotlight on Resilience The technology sector displayed commendable resilience, led by stalwarts such

The USD has run back to the downside, after a brief move higher after the higher than expected PPI data: GBPUSD: The GBPUSD is extending to a new high for the year and new high going back to July 27 when the price hit 1.2995 (just short of 1.3000). The old high and the natural

USD/JPY dropped to circa 157.77 on that round of intervention. Its surged back again. Liquidity is thin, which is what happens when intervention occurs, dealers do not want to get caught out. Think about it … 159.40 to 157.80 in a few blinks of the eye. Then back up again a few minutes later. Take

The EURUSD, like the GBPUSD, has stretched to new highs as European traders look toward the exits for the week. The move higher takes the price toward the high from June 2024 at 1.0915 and into a longer swing area between 1.0909 and 1.0918. That area will need to be broken to increase the bullish

That fits roughly with the same amount spent during their intervention efforts on 1 May last month as seen here. So, it is not to say that they tried to pull off a half-assed attempt yesterday. As a total in May, Japan spent a record ¥9.8 trillion – which surpassed the total used in 2022

Judging by US indices, which keep reaching new highs, the economy might seem to be thriving. However, the reality is more complicated. Growth rates are gradually slowing, which is evident not only because job creation reached only 150,000 jobs, below the 165,000 expected. More importantly, the ISM manufacturing and services indices fell below 50, and

CNN with the report on NATO nerves over China-owned infrastructure in Europe. NATO countries now see those investments as a liabilityThe fear, according to one US official, is that Beijing could use the infrastructure it owns in Europe to provide material assistance to Russiadiscussions on taking action on infrastructure, according to three officials involved in

The GBPUSD continues to stretch to the July 27 hi target at 1.2995. That is just short of the natural resistance at 1.3000. The high just reach 1.29898. There should be willing sellers/profit taking against that level with stops on a move above. Risk is low against the dual technical levels. Yesterday, the price moved

Headlines: Japan top FX diplomat Kanda declines to comment on suspected intervention yesterdayBOJ data suggests Japan may have spent over ¥3 trillion on intervention yesterdayWhat has changed after the US CPI report?Japan to slash economic growth forecast later this month – reportMore Japanese households anticipate prices to be higher in the next year – BOJ

First, a look at what got us here. Thursday US time: Japan intervened in the forex market – report Asia, Friday morning: ICYMI – the new angle Japan is taking on yen interventionJapan’s Kanda says recent yen moves are somewhat rapidUSD/JPY smashed lower, back under 158.50 – Another round of JPY interventionUSD/JPY wild swings continue,

The US producer price index rose 2.6% y/y in the largest annual rise since March 2023. The news initially caught the market by surprise and gave a lift to the US dollar. However the move was short-lived because it appears as though there was a one-off skew in the numbers. All the gains were driven

Prior was 68.2 Details: Current conditions 64.1 vs 65.9 priorExpectations 67.2 vs 69.6 prior1-year inflation 2.9% vs 3.0% prior5-year inflation 2.9% vs 3.0% Here’s the problem with the UMich survey This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

The NASDAQ has had a quick rebound today and currently trades up around 200 points or 1.08%. The high prices just reached 18486.45. As outlined in the video yesterday (“What would increase the bearishness in the Nasdaq today and going forward“), the low price yesterday broke below its 50-hour moving average, but fell short of

There are a couple to take note of, as highlighted in bold. The first being for EUR/USD at the 1.0850 level. That could be a bit of a magnet for price action and if anything else, limit any major pullback to the gains from yesterday. That is before the expiries roll off later in the

Good morning, afternoon and evening all. Any charts, technical analysis, trade ideas, thoughts, views, ForexLive traders would like to share and discuss with fellow ForexLive traders, please do so: This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

ICYMI, Adam had the breaking info: Japan intervened in the forex market – reportThe new strategy appears to be to wait for help — this time from US data — and go with the momentum. Going with the flow worked out well this time, its created a bit of a ‘gap’ now. 159-161, give or

Especially concerned about negative impacts of weak yen As per usual, they are keeping up this facade of being “unable to confirm nor deny” the intervention move. But after the purported leak yesterday here, they know and we know that these comments are just for show. This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

Goldman Sachs Assest Management on the US CPI report: One word: PivotalWith three inflation prints between this morning and September’s Fed meeting, today’s was crucial in helping the Federal Reserve gain confidence that inflation is still moving in the right direction *** The recap of a huge day in the US is here: Forexlive Americas

The EURGBP is trading to a new low going back to August 2022, and in the processes testing the high of a swing area between 0.8377 and 0.8392. The load today took out the low from June at 0.8397, but only by a few pips. Are the buyers leaning against the level?. Can they bounce

As the North American session begins, the GBP is the strongest and the JPY is the weakest. Today, the US PPI will be released. Yesterday, the CPI data came in lower than expected on both the headline and the core. The PPI data is expected to show 0.1% MoM/2.3% YoY (vs 2.2% last month) for

Prior month 20.5% (versus 2.2% expected) revised to 23.4%. Last month was a record high level of building permits at $13.4 billion.Building permits -12.2% to $11.7 billion. Last month was a record at 13.4 by dollars led by a sharp rise in British Columbia multiunit permits.Residential -16.3% to $7.1 billion in May. British Columbia fell

The US PPI data came in higher than expectations, but after a quick move higher, the USD has moved back lower in the three major currency pairs – the EURUSD, USDJPY and GBPUSD. In the kickstart video, I take a look at those three currency pairs from a technical perspective. What are the levels in

Major US stock indices are marginally higher in early US trading. Yesterday the NASDAQ tumbled lower by about 1.8%, but the small-cap Russell 2000 surged by over 3%. A snapshot of the market nine minutes into the open is showing: Dow Industrial Average average up 156.41 points or 0.39% at 39910.17.S&P index up 11.70 points

It’s been clear the Canadian housing market has been struggling in the past couple months but now we’re getting the hard data. The Canadian Real Estate Association reports that June sales fell 9.4% y/y. Seller are still mostly holding out for higher prices but inventories are building — particularly in condos and new builds. The

US June CPI +3.0% vs +3.1% y/y expectedJapan intervened in the forex market – reportUS initial jobless claim 222K vs 236K estimateFed’s Musalem: CPI data shows ‘encouraging further progress’SF Fed Pres.Mary Daly: Likely some policy adjustments will be warrantedCanadian finance minister could walk the plank. Mark Carney could be tappedUS June Federal budget deficit -66.0B

Highest since March 2023Prior was +2.2% y/yPPI final demand +0.2% m/m vs +0.1% expected Prior was -0.2% (revised to 0.0%)PPI ex food/energy +3.0% vs +2.5% y/y expectedPrior ex food/energy revised to 2.6% from 2.3%PPI ex food/energy +0.4% vs +0.2% m/m expectedPrior ex food/energy +0.0% (revised to +0.3%)Full release Well this is a curveball. Had it

Japan chief cabinet secretary Hayashi No comment on fx interventionWon’t comment on forex levelsImportant for currencies to move in stable manner reflecting fundamentalsRapid fx moves undesirableClosely watching fx movesReady to take all possible measures on forexUp to BOJ to decide details of monetary policy USD/JPY update: This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

A note from Goldman Sachs on US stocks, comments ion brief: August equity-market flows are typically the slowest of the yearmarkets have historically pulled back from mid-July highson guard for a “late summer equity market correction” if earnings disappoint and investors begin to focus on the autumn election resultspain trade has shifted from the upside

Prior +3.6%HICP +3.5% vs +3.5% y/y prelimPrior +3.8% Core annual inflation is seen at 3.0%, which is unchanged from May. This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

The last 16 hours have been a bit off colour for Japan in their attempts to stem the depreciation in the yen. For one, they reportedly intervened in the market to try and capitalise on a softer US CPI report during the start of US trading. Then, they even allowed for said move to be

Shares of Tesla are poised for a 2% decline at the open as the rest of the market wrestles with results from financials (mixed bag there with Citi +3% and JPM -1.2%). Spoos are up 3 points. The decline in TSLA follows an 8% drop yesterday that came on the heels of a sensational 11-day

Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago President Austan Goolsbee is pretty happy with the CPI report for June: June CPI report ‘excellent,’ improvement on shelter inflation ‘profoundly encouraging’This is what a path to 2% inflation looks likeAs inflation falls, leaving Fed policy rate steady means Fed is tightening policyThe reason to tighten policy would be if

Yesterday, we got some goldilocks US data with another soft US CPI report and good US Jobless Claims. First of all, better than expected jobless claims should quell fears of a deteriorating labour market, at least in the short term. One thing to note is that the data might have been distorted by the shorter

Happy Friday. The Fed calendar is bare today but we will get a couple of notable releases: 8:30 am ET PPI10 am ET Umich prelim consumer sentiment I can’t see PPI being a market mover but a hot reading would at least stall the momentum that has Fed funds pricing in 61 bps of easing

Fundamental Overview Yesterday, we got some goldilocks data as the US CPI report came in on the softer side and the US Jobless Claims remained stable. Despite this, the Nasdaq sold off and erased all the gains from the US NFP report. The culprit seemed to be rotation being driven by hedge funds facing short

Another round of JPY intervention Wild moves in USD/JPY This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

China Customs is drip feeding the trade data out. January -June (ie YTD), in US dollar terms: trade surplus $435 billion exports +3.6% y/yimports +2.0% y/y In Yuan terms: trade surplus 3.1 trillion yuanexports +6.9% y/y imports +5.2% y/y June only month data, USD terms: trade balance USD 99.05bnimports -2.3% y/yexports +8.6% y/y Exports, imports

A snippet from a note from Fitch following the US CPI data: Sufficient confidence to begin cutting interest rates is getting closerthe Federal Reserve will likely want to see similar prints in August and September before pulling the trigger on that first rate cut Other analysts are more convinced a cut is coming: More on

Discover the ultimate strategy for mastering Fib Extension vs Retracement, unlocking profits in both bull and bear markets The post Fib Extension vs Retracement: Which To Use And Why? appeared first on TradingwithRayner.

Bank of Montreal on the US inflation data. Fist, the TL;DR key takeaway: sets the Fed up well to begin cutting in September More (in brief): The net of the data reinforces the dovish messaging from Powell and offers confirmation that the Fed’s tighter policy stance is weighing on consumer price inflation. Initial Jobless Claims

Fundamental Overview The USD weakened across the board yesterday following another soft US CPI report and benign Jobless Claims figures. The market not only fully priced in a rate cut in September but also started to price in some chances of a back-to-back rate cut in November. Overall, we had a goldilocks data release with

Biden’s press conference, wrapping up the three day NATO summit in Washington. he began with a speech and is now taking questions. In response to the first question he referred to Vice President Harris as Vice President Trump. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

German DAX futures flatUK FTSE futures +0.2% For French stocks, the recovery in the last two days brings price back to its Monday levels at least. If anything else, it seems like investors will have to keep optimism in European indices on a leash for now. US futures are more flattish after the poor showing

Guess what? Yeah, it’s going to be another boring European session on the data front. The only notable events today include the US PPI and the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment report in the American session. I don’t expect the market to react too much to them unless we get huge surprises. 12:30 GMT/08:30 ET

JPMorgan says its expecting a diminishing in crypto liquidations during July, and then a recovery starting in August. revised its year-to-date crypto net flow estimate down from US$12 billion to US$8 billionreduction in the estimated net flow is largely driven by the decline in bitcoin reserves across exchanges over the past monthciting Mt. Gox, Gemini

Fundamental Overview The USD weakened across the board yesterday following another soft US CPI report and benign Jobless Claims figures. The market not only fully priced in a rate cut in September but also started to price in some chances of a back-to-back rate cut in November. Overall, we had a goldilocks data release with

People’s Bank of China USD/CNY reference rate is due around 0115 GMT. The People’s Bank of China (PBOC), China’s central bank, is responsible for setting the daily midpoint of the yuan (also known as renminbi or RMB). The PBOC follows a managed floating exchange rate system that allows the value of the yuan to fluctuate

Fundamental Overview Yesterday, gold spiked to the cycle highs following another soft US CPI report. The market even started to price in the chance of a third rate cut by the end of the year. Real yields fell and gold rallied as a result. As of now, it looks like gold have limited downside but

There is some 87.5% of Japanese households expecting a rise in prices in a year from now: That is up from the 83.3% share from the previous survey in March this year. Meanwhile, the outlook for economic conditions show just ~8% of households anticipating an improvement in the economy in a year from now. That

Prior +7.0%New yuan loans ¥2.13 trillionPrior ¥950.0 billion The jump is new yuan loans barely misses the estimate of ¥2.25 trillion but is a strong rebound to the month before. That reaffirms that Beijing is still trying to improve credit conditions in bolstering the economy this year. This article was written by Justin Low at

David beats Goliath today. The NASDAQ index has been the Goliath in 2024. The gains for the index reached close to 25%. That is huge – and it’s only July. Meanwhile, the small guy on the block, the small-cap Russell 2000 has suffered. Before today, the gain for the year was only 1% – 2%.

Japan’s Finance Ministry’s Vice Finance Minister for International Affairs Kanda. He is the official who will instruct the BOJ to intervene, when he judges it necessary. Often referred to as Japan’s ‘top currency diplomat’. If you are confused about Kanda commenting, I get it. Japan appointed a replacement, Atsushi Mimura, at the end of June.

Via Westpac on the Australian dollar after the US CPI data on Thursday: As previously noted, the bias for AUD/USD to rise has been partly due to AU domestic and RBA’s tilt to a more hawkish hold, as well as potential that US is returning to a path of disinflation. June CPI puts this prospect

Japan finance minister Suzuki Rapid fx moves undesirableDesirable for forex to move stablyNo comment on fx interventionWon’t comment on media reports that japan conducted fx rate checks This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

The Japanese government tends to release their economic growth forecasts twice a year, one in January and one in July. The latest one should come some time next week and the sources above are saying that they will be cutting its growth forecast for fiscal year ending March 2025. The revised estimate is to see

The People’s Bank of China set the onshore yuan (CNY) reference rate for the trading session ahead. USD/CNY is the onshore yuan. Its permitted to trade plus or minus 2% from this daily reference rate.CNH is the offshore yuan. USD /CNH has no restrictions on its trading range.A significantly stronger or weaker rate than expected

Eurostoxx +0.2%Germany DAX +0.1%France CAC 40 +0.4%UK FTSE +0.4%Spain IBEX +0.1%Italy FTSE MIB +0.4% Despite all of the gains in past few sessions, the CAC 40 index is still down 0.2% on the week currently. That is an indictment that any optimism remains very much on a leash for the time being. For US stocks

Data for purchases made in New Zealand on debit, credit and store cards. Card spending data covers around 68% of core retail sales in NZ. Its used as the main retail sales indicator for the country. More poor data from NZ, closely following the freefallin’ PMI: New Zealand June Manufacturing PMI 41.1 (prior 47.2) This

Prior +2.3%HICP +2.5% vs +2.5% y/y prelimPrior +2.6% This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

Slight delay in the release by the source. Compared to the same month a year ago, German wholesale prices are seen down 0.6%. This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

For markets, that door has certainly opened up after the US CPI report yesterday. But personally, I still hold some reservations. That especially since we have seen traders run back the post-CPI moves previously in the last two months. However, for now, we are seeing traders start to open up to the idea of three

China trade data dribbling out: YTD USD denominated exports +3.6% y/y, imports +2%Westpac reiterate bullish view on AUD/USDJPMorgan forecasts a crypto market recovery beginning in AugustJapan finance minister Suzuki says rapid FX moves are undesirableJapan chief cabinet secretary Hayashi says he has no comment on FX interventionPBOC sets USD/ CNY reference rate for today at

Adam had the info from JP Morgan as it was hitting: JPMorgan moves up Fed rate cut call to September from December From their report, a fair comment: The June CPI report was very benign JPM go on with a droll remark immaculate disinflation Yeah, right. Anyway, then this (the bolded bit): if the immaculate

A report in the Globe and Mail reports that the relationship between Canadian PM Trudeau and finance minister Chrystia Freeland has become tense and that a cabinet shuffle could be coming. “Senior officials in Prime Minister Justin Trudeau’s office are concerned that Finance Minister Chrystia Freeland has not been effective in delivering an upbeat economic

Q2 GDP q/q is +0.4% expected +0.4%, prior +0.1% for the y/y +2.9% expected +2.7%, prior +2.7% *** Meanwhile, USD/JPY is all over the place. I put a big red box around the y axis … yozxa! This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

It’s all housing at this point. CIBC today highlights that shelter is the key to getting inflation back to the Fed and Bank of Canada targets. For the Fed, they note that core inflation excluding housing is already at 2% y/y. They highlight analysis suggesting that rent inflation takes about a year to enter the

US President Biden is holding a press conference at the conclusion of NATO meetings. The media will, of course, be focused on questions about his fitness for running and holding office for the following four years. On the data agenda, China’s trade balance for June is of most interest. Both exports and imports are expected

The NASDAQ index fell -408 points at one point in trading today. It is currently down -334 points or -1.80%. That is its worst trading decline since April 30 when the index fell -2.04%. What did the decline do from a technical perspective? The low price in the Nasdaq index today reached 18238.78. That was

Bank of America highlights that recent US growth indicators have started to turn lower, and inflation appears to be easing. This trend has tempered the USD’s strength, as markets anticipate a potential Fed easing cycle this year. BofA’s G10 FX HeatMap provides a broader context for the USD outlook by evaluating multiple metrics across G10

San Francisco Fed’s Daly is on the wires and says: Likely some policy adjustments will be warrantedRecent inflation prints a relief, but progress bumpyMy expectation is inflation will come down gradually, labor market is gradually slowingEconomy looks to be on path where 1 or 2 rate cuts this year would be ‘more or less’ the

USD/JPY is plunging after the softer US CPI numbers. This could be a squeeze on the very-crowded long trade. The dollar is broadly weaker but in the 50-100 pips range on most pairs, however this move is now nearly 300 pips. That either speaks a real squeeze. This article was written by Adam Button at

The USDCAD moved lower on the USD selling immediately after the US CPI data. However the fall in the pair extended down toward key support near the 200 day moving average at 1.3595 and the 38.2% retracement of the range since the December 2023 low at 1.35899. That 38.2% retracement level has stalled the fall

Everyone is trying to make sense of this market but this looks like position-squaring to me. An extremely crowded trade has been to buy AI (i.e. NVDA) and short rate-sensitive stocks (Russell 2000). That’s been a wonderful trade as the Russell 2000 languished and Nvidia soared to briefly become the most-valuable stock in the world.

Job market strong but has cooled in recent monthsWe are making progress on inflationSupported June Fed decision, says mon policy is restrictive nowEconomy is on a good path but he would like to see more dataWants to see more improvement in supply conditionsWants to see general demand conditions moderate some more going forward Musalem is

The final of three coupon auctions will take place at 1 PM ET with the sale of $22 billion of 30-year bonds by the US Treasury. Both the 3 and 10 year note auctions had strong demand with a negative tail, greater than the average bid to cover, with strong domestic demand and steady international

Median CPI +0.2% m/m and +4.15% y/yTrimmed mean CPI +0.2% and 3.34% y/yMedian CPI is the one-month inflation rate of the component whose expenditure weight is in the 50th percentile of price changes.16 percent trimmed-mean CPI is a weighted average of one-month inflation rates of components whose expenditure weights fall below the 92nd percentile and

I don’t expect they will be the last to move-forward a rate cut call. Bank of America is also at December. “Today’s report is, to use Powell’s words, ‘good news’ and we now think this paves the way for a first cut in September,” said economist Michael Feroli. This article was written by Adam Button

The betting markets are increasingly wary of Biden’s ability to stay in the race. Ultimately, the choice comes down to him but every day there is a new name calling for him to step down. A House Democrat from Michigan today said he should leave the race as the chorus continues to grow. The New

The US CPI data came in lower than expected, and that has led to a fall in the US dollar, and a fall in US yields. The EURUSD has broken higher and moved above a swing area between 1.0875 and 1.0887. Also at 1.0887 is a downward sloping trendline on the 4-hour chart connecting highs

High-yield 4.405% versus 4.403% last monthWI at the time of the auction 4.383%Tail +2.2 basis points vs six-month average of -0.9 basis pointsBid to Cover 2.30X vs six month average of 2.42XDealers 15.88% vs six-month average of 14.9%Directs 23.36% vs six-month average of 17.5%Indirects 60.76% vs six-month average of 67.6% AUCTION GRADE: D+ The 30-year

Via Kiwibank, who were ahead of the curve (“sticking to our call for cuts to begin in November”) on this shift from the RBNZ: importantly, we finally got a noticeable softening in tone. It was a welcome shift given the total collapse in business confidence last week. Enough is enough. The economy is clearly responding

Headline measures: Prior y/y 3.3%m/m -0.1% versus +0.1% expected Prior m/m 0.1% Unrounded % vs +0.313% m/m prior Core measures and details: Core CPI m/m +0.1% versus +0.2% expected. Prior month 0.2%Unrounded core +0.065% vs +0.163% prior Core CPI y/y +3.3% versus 3.4% expected. Prior month was 3.4%Supercore m/m -0.054% vs -0.045% priorSupercore y/y +4.651%

The NZDUSD moved sharply higher after the tamer than expected US CPI data sent the USD lower. That moved to the upside took the price above a cluster of moving averages including: 200-hour movie area to 0.61024100-bar moving out on the four hour chart at 0.61059100-hour moving out in 0.61136, and even the 200-bar moving

New Zealand food prices in June 2024: +1% m/m and -0.3% y/y Food prices make up nearly 19% of New Zealand’s consumer price index. – We get the Q2 CPI data from NZ next week. Wednesday morning, July 17, New Zealand time: 10.45am This is TUESDAY at 2245 GMT and 1645 US Eastern time. Earlier

Bidens campaign says: There is increased anxiety after the debate, but it is NOT seeing a drastic shift in where the race stands Its internal data and public polling show the race remains within margin of error in key battleground states.It’s polling shows Bidens post debate net favorability is 20 percentage points higher than Trump

Federal Reserve Board Governor Lisa Cook speaking on “Global Inflation and Monetary Policy Challenges” before the 2024 Australian Conference of Economists Cook (info via Reuters): “My baseline forecast…is that inflation will continue to move toward target over time, without much further rise in unemployment,”soft landings are “more likely when policy easing began with inflation already

Good morning, afternoon and evening all. Any charts, technical analysis, trade ideas, thoughts, views, ForexLive traders would like to share and discuss with fellow ForexLive traders, please do so: This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

Trump met with major U.S. Bitcoin miners last month in a move to engage with the crypto folks and garner their votes. He is well-positioned to do so. Incumbent President Biden has overseen further Bitcoin regulation, so he is out of favour with the Bitcoin et al community. Trump has said he wants ensure the

China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC) announced on Wednesday a number of measures. More curbs on short-selling securities re-lending – in which brokers borrow shares for clients to short sell – would be suspended from today, Thursday, 11 July 2024 margin requirements would be raised for short-sellers, from 80% to 100% Urged stock exchanges to publish

The USDCHF moved sharply lower after the US CPI data as the USD reacted to lower rates and the expectations of 2 cuts by the Fed in 2024. The move lower ticket price to the 61.8% retracement of the recent move up from the June low to the July high. That level comes in at

Rate cuts? Failing growth? Huge deficits? Political instability? Geopolitical fears? Take your pick, gold has them all. The week started off with a slump on data showing China didn’t add to reserves (at least officially) for a second month but that hasn’t been enough to derail the trade. Gold is up $51 to $2422. With

Prior week 238K revised to 239KInitial jobless claims 222K vs 236K estimate4-week MA of initial jobless claims 233.5K vs 238.75K last week Continuing claims 1.852M vs 1.860M est.Prior week continuing claims 1.858M revised to 1.856M4 week moving average continuing claims 1.840M vs 1.831M last week The data is still consistent with a solid jobs market.

There is a slight extension to the narrow ranges earlier but it is looking rather one-sided. The greenback is the one dragged lower now in European morning trade, with EUR/USD pushing to a one-month high of 1.0853. The pair is now up 0.2% on the day, with other major currencies also posting roughly similar gains

Market Analysis: A Patchwork of Green and Red Today’s trading session displays a vivid tapestry of gains and dips across various sectors, reflecting the diverse reactions of investors to the latest economic data and corporate earnings. A glance at the stock market heatmap reveals significant movements that could hint at upcoming trends. Sector Overview Technology:

Shares of Tesla are down 3.6% on this headline. This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

The past few days I’ve been posting about the trending GBPJPY. The pair has been trending since it’s most recent swing low back on June 14. Initially, the price needed to get back above its 100 and 200 hour moving averages. Then it needed to stay above those moving averages, and it has (see point

Later today, Thursday, 11 July 2024, we get the US consumer inflation data. Due at 1230 GMT, which is 0830 US Eastern time. What to expect. This snapshot from the ForexLive economic data calendar, access it here. Taking a look at the range of expectations compared to the median consensus (the ‘expected’ in the screenshot

Why it’s important? In the Asian session, Eamonn published the range of estimates for today’s US CPI report. These ranges are important in terms of market reaction because when the actual data deviates from the expectations, it creates a surprise effect. Another important input in market’s reaction is the distribution of forecasts. In fact, although

I think this is mostly a mechanical move as low-rate trades get re-worked. The Russell 2000 is up a whopping 2.5% in its best day of the year while the Nasdaq is now down nearly 1%. That speaks to hedges being unwound. Some of that is that lower inflation will lead to rate cuts and

The US CPI data sent the USDJPY (and other JPY pairs) sharply lower. The decline was overdue as the price has extended to 1987 levels on the run higher. Nevertheless, it was a sharp 400 PIP move to the downside. Now what? When you have a sharp move like we saw today, traders who could

The USD id dribbling lower. Apaprt from what has ben posted there are no obvious fresh catalysts. Markets are super-pumped to see a lower US CPI later today and a potential nearer-term USFed rate cut. Whether the CPI behaves or not, time will tell. The Australian dollar has been a key beneficiary. The RBA look

Australian consumer inflation expectations, still above the actual official inflation rate Pic from the Reserve Bank of Australia website This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

As the North American session begins, the EUR is the strongest and the CAD is the weakest. The USD is mostly lower but only modestly lower as most of the major currencies are scrunched together today. Low to high trading ranges are modest today with 5 of the 6 major currency pairs vs the USD

There are just a couple to take note of on the day, as highlighted in bold. The first being for USD/CHF at the 0.8950 level. It isn’t one that holds any technical significance but could hold any downside pressure as it coincides with the weekly pivot. The ceiling for price action in the pair is

Prior +2.4%HICP +2.5% vs +2.5% y/y prelimPrior +2.8% No changes to the initial estimate with core annual inflation seen at 2.9%, marking a fall below the 3% mark for the first time since February 2022. But there is still work to do in order to get it back down towards the desired 2% level. This

US equity futures jumped on the CPI report but are now back in positive territory, with S&P 500 futures slightly lower ahead of the open. A couple thoughts: 1) The index jumped yesterday on no news, climbing 1.0%. There will be talk that CPI was leaked and this was a ‘sell the fact’ trade. I

Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell has repeatedly said that he’s looking for ‘greater confidence’ that inflation will sustainably fall to the Fed’s 2% target. Headline inflation is still 3.0% but the past three month-over-month numbers were -0.1%, 0.0%, +0.3% — a trend that’s on track to hit the target. Moreover, the Fed has been noting

The report cites a source. Atsushi Mimura replaced Masato Kanda in late June as Japan’s top currency diplomat and we’ve been eagerly awaiting a new strategy. Kanda relied heavily on verbal intervention and then tried to squeeze the market after it blew through higher levels. He ultimately spent $60 billion in a temporarily successful intervention

The major US stock indices are opening up a little changed. Given the weaker than expected US CPI data, there may be a “sell-the-fact” reaction. Be aware. A snapshot of the market eight minutes into the open is currently showing: Dow Industrial Average average -90.55 points or -0.23% at 39630.82S&P index +0.47 points or 0.01%

Fundamental Overview The USD weakened across the board last Friday following the soft US NFP report. The data showed some more labour market cooling with an increase in the unemployment rate and a decrease in wage growth. We basically have an economy that is slowing but still growing. The market seems to be taking it

And that will keep markets in a bit of a bind until we get to the release later in the day. The estimate for headline annual inflation is for it to slow to 3.1%. Meanwhile, core annual inflation is estimated to remain at 3.4% – unchanged from May. Either way, the details are going to

Bank of England Pill: Uncertainty around UK wage data is unlikely to disappear soonBOE’s Pill: Services and wages continue to point to uncomfortable strength in inflationDay two on Capitol Hill: Fed’s Powell says inflation down but still too highUS May wholesale sales +0.4% vs +0.1% expectedUS treasury sells $39 billion of 10 year notes at

US consumer inflation data: for June 2024due at 1230 GMT, which is 0830 US Eastern time What to expect? This snapshot is from the ForexLive economic data calendar, access it here. Taking a look at the range of expectations compared to the median consensus (the ‘expected’ in the screenshot above) for the key data points:

Headlines: US inflation to hog the spotlight in trading todayWhat is the distribution of forecasts for the US CPI?The CPI importance is fadingDollar a touch softer awaiting the US CPI report laterUK May monthly GDP +0.4% vs +0.2% m/m expectedGermany June final CPI +2.2% vs +2.2% y/y prelimIEA sees oil demand growth slowing as China

Michael Brown, Senior Research Strategist at Pepperstone, shared on X an interesting finding today. “The EUR overnight implied volatility sits at 8.8% into CPI later on, implying a move of +/-40 pips over the tenor. That’s the lowest level o/n implieds have traded on ‘CPI Day’ since back in 2021”. This is just another evidence

Gold rose as high as $2386 earlier today but has since sagged back to $2372. There is something of a ‘buy everything’ mode unfolding in stocks at the moment but the optimism hasn’t spread to gold. It trade above $2400 in April and May but has struggled to get back above. Last week it came

People’s Bank of China USD/CNY reference rate is due around 0115 GMT. The People’s Bank of China (PBOC), China’s central bank, is responsible for setting the daily midpoint of the yuan (also known as renminbi or RMB). The PBOC follows a managed floating exchange rate system that allows the value of the yuan to fluctuate

White House confirms US President Biden’s news conference on Thursday, 11 July 2024 at 5.30pm US Eastern time. That’s 2130 GMT. The US CPI data for June hits tomorrow, maybe B has seen the number and is happy to talk about it? This will no doubt be a raucous occasion with the press baying for

There are only lower-ier data on the calendar today. None of these are likely to move major FX much upon release. This snapshot from the ForexLive economic data calendar, access it here. The times in the left-most column are GMT. The numbers in the right-most column are the ‘prior’ (previous month/quarter as the case may

In my view, it is going to be a quite a task for investors to pick up on any fear from the US CPI report later. The estimate shows that we should get a softer headline reading, although core annual inflation is estimated to remain steady as in May. If it plays out that way

Japan’s core machinery orders missed estimates for a rise m/m in May, falling instead. Japan Core Machinery Orders (May 2024) -3.2% m/m (vs. expected +0.8%) this is a volatile indicatorcore orders exclude ship buildings and repairs as well as electricity power generationits used as an indicator to capital spending in six to nine months. The

Fundamental Overview The USD weakened across the board last Friday following the soft US NFP report. The data showed some more labour market cooling with an increase in the unemployment rate and a decrease in wage growth. We basically have an economy that is slowing but still growing. The market seems to be taking it

Fundamental Overview The USD weakened across the board last Friday following the soft US NFP report. The data showed some more labour market cooling with an increase in the unemployment rate and a decrease in wage growth. We basically have an economy that is slowing but still growing. The market seems to be taking it

This speaks to the continued struggle in Germany’s manufacturing sector, which is the key economic driver for Europe’s largest economy. According to the VDMA, around 40% of German manufacturers see revenue continuing to fall in the current year with 23% expecting stagnation. Meanwhile, almost a third of companies are rating their present situation as being

The Reserve Bank of New Zealand yesterday, ICYMI: RBNZ leaves it cash rate on hold at 5.5%, as expectedNZD/USD drops after the RBNZ statement – hints of a closer rate cutNew Zealand rate pricing implies 25bp rate cut for October vs. 16 before RBNZ statementWestpac on the RBNZ statement today – “less hawkish” than May

As for this year itself, the agency is keeping their demand growth forecast largely steady at 970k bpd. IEA notes that the post-pandemic rebound in Chinese consumption has now run its course. And while China has accounted for roughly 70% of global demand gains last year, it is only holding a share of around 40%

Prior 0.0%Services +0.3% vs +0.2% m/m expectedIndustrial output +0.2% vs +0.2% m/m expectedManufacturing output +0.4% vs +0.4% m/m expectedConstruction output +1.9% vs +1.0% m/m expected Looking at the breakdown, the services sector contributed 0.22% of GDP growth in May while production contributed 0.03% and construction 0.11%. Of note, the services sector has been a key

With the UK GDP out of the way, the European session is empty on the data front and will largely be a placeholder as the market awaits the release of the US CPI and the US Jobless Claims figures in the American session. 12:30 GMT/08:30 ET – US June CPI The US CPI Y/Y is

I had the pleasure of speaking with Dale Pinkert today about the state of markets and why I’m seeing increasing signs of complacency in the market. We had a chance to talk about: The VIXBondsThe US dollarThe poundThe euroThe Aussie and Canadian dollarsGoldMuch more. Give it a watch. This article was written by Adam Button

Eurostoxx +0.2%Germany DAX +0.1%France CAC 40 +0.3%UK FTSE +0.1%Spain IBEX flatItaly FTSE MIB flat French stocks are still keeping a slight rebound after the bounce yesterday. The chart below shows that near-term support is still holding but any major bounce is left wanting. For the day itself, we’ll have to look to the US CPI

German DAX futures +0.3%UK FTSE future +0.3% Even French CAC 40 futures are seen up 0.3%, looking to fully erase the gains from the Tuesday drop after yesterday’s modest rebound. This comes after a strong finish in Wall Street overnight as well. As for US futures, the overall mood is more tentative with S&P 500

Federal Reserve Board Governor Lisa Cook “very attentive” to what is happening with the unemployment rate, would be responsive if situation changes quickly Earlier Fed’s Cook sees US soft landing: lower inflation, no significant jobless rise This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

Major currencies are lightly changed on the day and are expected to keep that way until we get to the main event later. The kiwi is marginally higher, bouncing back a little after yesterday’s fall following a more dovish RBNZ. NZD/USD dropped to test its key daily moving averages and is holding on for now,

Japanese Machinery Orders for May 2024, the m/m is a disappointment but the y/y is more encouraging. more to come — The core machinery orders data is a highly volatile series its used as a leading indicator of capital spending in the coming six to nine months This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at

I posted this earlier in the week, so this is a repeat. The Wall Street Journal’s Fed watcher Timiraos summarising inflation forecasts for June: The data is due on Thursday July 11 at 8.30 am US Eastern time (1230 GMT) and will be a key factor for the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) into interest

Goldman Sachs intends to expand its crypto offerings, set to launch three tokenization projects by the end of the year. The firm’s digital assets global head Mathew McDermott spoke with Fortune (gated). In brief: Goldman Sachs is set to launch three tokenization projects by the end of the year with major clients, including its first

Bank of Korea comments on their policy decision today: Will maintain restrictive policy stance for sufficient period of timeWill examine the timing of a rate cutEconomy to continue moderate growthTo monitor trend of slowing inflationTo assess trade-off between policy variables, such as growth and financial stabilityGrowth temporarily weaken in q2Gdp growth in line with earlier

Archegos Capital Management founder Sung Kook “Bill” Hwang was convicted of fraud and other charges. The charges have the potential to see him sent to prison for up to 20 years. Hwang’s misdeeds are estimated to have cost banks around US$10bn. So, if the sentencing judge is a retail FX trader Hwang will probably get

The Bank of Korea kept interest rates unchanged at its meeting today. Awaiting comments from Governor Ree Chang Yong. – Markets are expecting the first cut from the Bank between August and October. Inflation has been falling but some price rises (city gas and some public services) are set to rise in Q3. Inflation expectations

The Australian consumer is not running on empty just hyet according to this data. CBA Household Spending for June 2024 +0.6% m/m prior +1.1% and +3.9% y/y prior +4.3% A slower rate of growth for both measures but not too shabby. Australian’s received a tax cut on July 1. Also from July elect This article

Trump to speak at Bitcoin 2024 conference in Nashville in late JulyAUD/USD hits a 6 month high with USD lower across the majors boardTen investment bank forecasts for June US CPI due later on Thursday, 11 July 2024US CPI data due Thursday. Here are the ranges of estimates (& why they’re crucial to know)Bank Korea

Fed Powell reiterated the dual risks. That is it’s not just inflation as chair Powell feels it is starting to decelerate again. This time employment is also a concern. Bad news is still good news. That may change going forward, but for now the broader S&P and NASDAQ once again closed at record levels. For

The People’s Bank of China set the onshore yuan (CNY) reference rate for the trading session ahead. USD/CNY is the onshore yuan. Its permitted to trade plus or minus 2% from this daily reference rate.CNH is the offshore yuan. USD /CNH has no restrictions on its trading range.A significantly stronger or weaker rate than expected

Federal Reserve Chair Powell gave testimony in the US Senate on Tuesday and repeated the message to the House on Wednesday. For what he said and its impact, summary here: Forexlive Americas FX news wrap 9 Jul: Powell’s testimony keeps easing door open for Sept. Nick Timiraos at the Wall Street Journal has handed down

Here is what needs to happen: Lester Holt or someone else needs to come at Biden hard and fast and let the chips fall where they may. I don’t think anyone is doing any favours with softballs here. This shouldn’t be a policy interview because the only topic that anyone cares about his his mental

The Reserve Bank of New Zealand performed a bit of a pivot in its brief statement yesterday. ICYMI: RBNZ leaves it cash rate on hold at 5.5%, as expectedNZD/USD drops after the RBNZ statement – hints of a closer rate cutNew Zealand rate pricing implies 25bp rate cut for October vs. 16 before RBNZ statementWestpac

Biden pushed back hard against pressure to drop off the Presidential ticket at the start of the week but his comments at the NATO Summit didn’t exactly put to rest questions about his health. Now there is fresh pressure and his betting odds have against slipped, with PredictIt pegging him at less than 50/50 to

Bank of America believes the Fed will first cut rates in December but conceded that much of what happens next could hinge on Thursday’s inflation report. The market is pricing in 19 bps of easing through the Sept FOMC and 50.6 bps by year end. For this report, BofA forecasts a modest increase in both

The price of WTI crude futures are settling at $82.10. That is up $0.69 or 0.85%. The gains come after three consecutive losing sessions, and was driven by a bullish OPEC demand forecast and a significant drop in U.S. inventories. The EIA reported a 3.4 million-barrel drawdown in U.S. oil inventories, surpassing the expected 1.3

The USD is nudging to the upside and in doing so, is making a break in some of the major currencies USDJPY: The USDJPY has moved above the swing level at 161.732 with some momentum. The high price from last week is the next target at 161.943 with the best case being the price now

The major European indices are closing higher on the day, bouncing back from the declines seen during yesterday’s trade. A snapshot of the closing levels shows: German DAX, +0.99%France CAC, +0.86%UK FTSE 100 +0.66%Spain’s Ibex +1.59%Italy’s FTSE MIB +1.31% As European traders head for the exits, US stocks are trading back toward the highest for

Senators propose ban on congressional stock trading. The ban would be on members of Congress, their spouses, and dependent children from trading individual stocks.The current law requires disclosure of stock trades but is seen as insufficient and poorly enforced.The STOCK Act of 2012 mandates disclosure of trades over $1,000 within 45 days.The new bill would

The U.S. Treasury will conduct the second coupon auction of the week, when they sell $39 billion of 10-year notes at 1 PM ET. The note auctions will be graded (and impactful on markets) on its merits compared to the six-month averages of the major components tracked for the auctions. A snapshot of those components

High yield 4.276%WI level at the time of the auction: 4.286% Tail -1.0 basis points versus six-auction average 0.4 bpsBid-to-Cover 2.58X versus six-auction average 2.52xDealers 11.53% versus six-auction average 16.1%. Least since August 2023Directs 20.86% versus six-auction average 16.7%Indirects 67.61% versus six-auction average 67.2% AUCTION GRADE: A+ Nothing wrong with this auction with a -1.0

The Atlanta Fed GDPNow growth estimate for Q2 has risen to 2.0% from 1.5% on July 3. The move to the upside snaps a series of declines. In their own words: The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the second quarter of 2024 is 2.0 percent on July 10,

Introduction Today’s stock market brings forth nuanced shifts and intriguing activity across several sectors. Let’s dissect the key movers and trends as seen in today’s market heatmap, with a focus on the technology sector which shows resilient advancements amidst broader market fluctuations. Sector Overview Technology Triumphs: Notably, the technology sector portrayed promising trends. Heavyweights such

The USDCHF buyers are making a play with the pair breaking above its 100-day moving average and 200 bar movie aired on the four hour chart near 0.89767. Ahead to the topside lies the 100 day moving average at 0.8992. Recall from yesterday that moving average held resistance. Getting above opens the door for a

Over the past few years, Boeing, one of the world’s largest aerospace and aviation manufacturers, has faced significant reputational and financial performance challenges. Starting with financials, the company has been reporting negative earnings per share (EPS) since 2019. And the figures were much worse than expected in four out of five cases. It looked like

Bloomberg is reporting that Apple aims to ship 10% more new iPhones in 2024 after a bumpy 2023. Apple shares are now trading up $3.68 or 1.61% at $232.39 and reached a new record high level. Shares of Apple are up 20.37% in 2024 after rising 48.18% in 2023. Looking at the daily chart, a

Here’s a note from Piper Sandler noting that they have been ‘pounding the table’ on the idea that it’s not taking longer than normal for the effects of Fed hikes to hit the economy. They have looked at cycles dating back to 1958 at when Fed hikes begin to hit the economy. They note that

Musalem’s event is going to be of interest to traders, 1530 GMT / 1130 US Eastern time: Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta President Raphael Bostic participates in a discussion on economic inclusion before the National Credit Union Administration Diversity, Equity, and Inclusion (DEI) Summit 1700 GMT / 1300 US Eastern time: Federal Reserve Bank of

Reserve Bank of New Zealand meeting is a policy review, not a full Monetary Policy Statement; there are no fresh economic forecasts or briefings being issued. Statement from the Bank: Restrictive monetary policy has significantly reduced consumer price inflation, with the Committee expecting headline inflation to return to within the 1 to 3 percent target

Fed’s Powell is likely to repeat most of what he said during his day one testimony in the Senate yesterday. The faces are different with House banking committee representatives providing the questions to the Fed chair: dual mandate has served us well.On the balance sheet runoff, the Fed has made quite a lot of progress

BOE’s Mann is speaking and says: Supply side of the economy is growing very slowly Sees labor market tightness.Says that wage growth is still far away from being consistent with the inflation targetWe have to see disciplining of service sector price growth.On rate cuts Mann says that until I see some deceleration in services prices,

Prior was +0.1% (revised to +0.2%)Inventories +0.6% vs +0.6% expectedPrior inventories +0.6%Inventories -0.5% y/y The inventory number will help to put a floor under Q2 GDP estimates while the better sales should add to optimism about Q3. This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

In case you missed the decision earlier: RBNZ leaves it cash rate on hold at 5.50%, as expected The pressure is staying on the New Zealand dollar today, as it is holding at the lows for the day currently. NZD/USD is down 0.8% to near 0.6070 and is testing key support levels once more. The

Uncertainty around UK wage data is unlikely to disappear soonI’m not sure if we’re in a world of persistent inflation pressures are notImportant to see if reduce tightness in the labor market leads to slower wage growth This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

Fundamental Overview The USD weakened across the board last Friday following the soft US NFP report. The data showed some more labour market cooling with an increase in the unemployment rate and a decrease in wage growth. We basically have an economy that is slowing but still growing. We will see if the market will

In a report released late yesterday, CIBC significantly raised its gold price forecasts, seeing a more bullish outlook for bullion, especially in the event of a Trump presidency. Key Takeaways: Gold: 2024: New forecast is $2,290/oz, up from the previous $2,100/oz.2025: New forecast is $2,600/oz, up from the previous $2,000/oz.2026: New forecast is $2,400/oz, up

The S&P index has reached 5600 for the first time ever. The index is up 23 points or 0.41%. For the trading year, the S&P index is now up around 17.4%. That still lags the gain in the NASDAQ index which is up 23.45%. The NASDAQ and that is up 102.14 points or 0.56% at

German DAX futures flatUK FTSE futures +0.1% After the slump yesterday, European indices look set for a more muted open today. This comes as Wall Street was also rather tepid yesterday and US futures are also seen flattish today. The CAC 40 index is one to watch as it nudges back towards a key support

Inflation, both CPI and PPI, data from China’s National Bureau of Statistics (NBS), June 2024: PPI m/m -0.2% prior +0.2% more to come This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

Bloomberg reported that the Sahm Rule has been triggered last Friday. In fact, the recent 3-month average rose to 4.0%, which is 50 bps above the 3-month average low of the past 12 months. For more on the Sahm Rule, check this post by Adam. The St. Louis FRED database though, shows that the Sahm

Fundamental Overview Copper extended the gains into the 4.68 level recently on the back of a turnaround in momentum and some positive news from the Chinese Caixin Manufacturing PMI. The price started to pull back last Friday following the US NFP report as the market started to debate whether the US will manage to achieve

The GBPUSD has extended higher and in the process has moved above a swing area between 1.28168 and 1.28272 and extended to the high price from Monday at 1.28449. The price is also near a downward-sloping trendline connecting recent highs at 1.2849. So far traders have leaned against the high for the week, but remains

2024 world oil demand growth forecast unchanged at +2.25m barrels2025 world oil demand growth forecast unchanged at +1.85m barrels In a separate report from RIA: Russian production decreased by 114K bpd in JuneOPEC oil production in June decreased by 80k bpd in June WTI crude is fractionally lower today but 60-cents above the lows of

The USDCAD is trading to a new low in morning North American trading. In the process, the narrow 23 pip range over the first 2 1/2 days of the week (between 1.3623 and 1.3646). Sellers are making a play…finally. The pair is looking to enter a swing area between 1.3596 and 1.3615. Within that swing

Surprise. Surprise. The broader S&P and NASDAQ indices are trading at new record levels. For the S&P it is working on its fifth consecutive record close. For the NASDAQ index it is working on its sixth consecutive record close. The Dow Industrial Average average lags and trades above and below unchanged in early US trading.

For some context, the BOJ held discussions with bond market participants over the last two days before announcing their official decision on tapering later this month. It is being reported that many private banks called for the Japanese central bank to halve its monthly purchases by around 2026. While there was apparently a varying amount

As the North American session begins, the GBP is the strongest of the major currencies, while the NZD is the weakest. Most of the price reaction today is in the NZD which fell sharply vs all the major currencies after its rate decision. The Reserve Bank of New Zealand’s kept rates unchanged in what was

Eurostoxx +0.2%Germany DAX +0.3%France CAC 40 +0.2%UK FTSE +0.4%Spain IBEX +0.4%Italy FTSE MIB +0.3% Eyes are staying on French stocks as the power struggle plays out following the election over the weekend. The CAC 40 is hovering near key support after yesterday’s fall: This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

Crude oil inventory -3.443m draw versus a draw of -1.333m estimateGasoline inventory -2.006m draw versus a draw of -0.600M estimateDistilates build of 4.884M versus a build of 0.833M estimateCushing draw of -0.702M vs a gain of 0.345M last weekCrude production 13.3M versus 13.2M last weekrefining utilization 1.9% versus expected -0.1%. Per week 1.3% Crude oil

Did you enjoy the first two hours of Powell’s testimony? How about another two? Only this time with the crazies in the House. Tune in at 10 am ET for all the fun but don’t expect much in the way of market-moving information. Powell stayed tightly on script yesterday and I wouldn’t expect a departure

The People’s Bank of China set the onshore yuan (CNY) reference rate for the trading session ahead. USD/CNY is the onshore yuan. Its permitted to trade plus or minus 2% from this daily reference rate.CNH is the offshore yuan. USD /CNH has no restrictions on its trading range.A significantly stronger or weaker rate than expected

A note from RBC on the Bank of England and sterling, says that apart from the BoE outlook the currency could drop on fiscal risks regardless. In summary: BOE could cut by 50 basis points in both 2024 and 2025, leaving GBP with still one of the highest rates in the G10 But risk for

In the kickstart video for July 10, 2024, I break down the technicals that are driving the three major currency pairs: EURUSDUSDJPYGBPUSD Today I give a bonus look at the NZDUSD as it is the biggest mover after the RBNZ rates unchanged but it was considered a more dovish unchanged decision. Technically, The EURUSD is

There are two probabilities that matter in Canada right now: 1) A 64% chance the Bank of Canada cuts rates on July 24 The market has tilted towards a cut in the past two weeks. Despite that, the Canadian dollar has strengthened and I think that’s instructive. The market is increasingly saying that the growth

Headlines: The countdown continues as markets await the main event tomorrowKiwi stays pressured in European morning tradeHas the Sahm Rule been triggered?Japanese banks reportedly urged BOJ to halve monthly bond purchases by 2026BOJ will likely project inflation will stay around its 2% target in coming yearsUS MBA mortgage applications w.e. 5 July -0.2% vs -2.6%

When-rather-than-if characterization of prospective rate cuts seems appropriateThe challenge for the MPC is to get the balance rightWe have to be realistic about how much any one or two economic releases adds to our assessmentServices price inflation and wage growth continue to point to an uncomfortable strength in underlying inflationHard to dispute the case that

Chinese inflation is expected to have edged up a little further in the June data due today. It should put to rest the fear of slipping back into deflation, at the CPI level at least. The PPI is still deep in a deflationary hole. And then its on to the Reserve Bank of New Zealand.

The Reserve Bank of New Zealand decision is due at 2pm New Zealand time: 0200 GMT2200 US Eastern time The Bank is widely expected to hold rates at 5.50% While inflation is still well above target the subsiding NZ economy is likely to prompt the Bank to be a touch less hawkish than it was

The kiwi is the main mover among major currencies so far today, following a more dovish RBNZ earlier here. Besides that, we’re seeing narrow ranges all around with light changes ahead of European trading. What else is new, eh? Fed chair Powell was in the spotlight in trading yesterday but he didn’t offer up much

BofA: A brief and recent history of US FX policyUS equities edge higher as Nvidia scores another gainCrude oil futures settle at $81.41Betting odds of Biden sticking around firmWhy Fed easing will come too late to prevent a major slowdown in growthU.S. Treasury auctions off $58 billion of three-year notes at a high yield of

Prior -2.6%Market index 206.1 vs 206.5 priorPurchase index 144.3 vs 142.9 priorRefinance index 532.3 vs 544.1 prior30-year mortgage rate 7.00% vs 7.03% prior Mortgage applications fell marginally in the past week as a drag in refinancing activity outweighed a slight rise in purchase activity. Overall, this continues to point to a more subdued sentiment in

Bank of Japan more to come This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

People’s Bank of China USD/CNY reference rate is due around 0115 GMT. The People’s Bank of China (PBOC), China’s central bank, is responsible for setting the daily midpoint of the yuan (also known as renminbi or RMB). The PBOC follows a managed floating exchange rate system that allows the value of the yuan to fluctuate

It’s just one of those days where tomorrow can’t come soon enough. Besides the kiwi today, other major currencies are lacking any real appetite to move on the day. In exemplifying that sentiment, EUR/USD is still hugging a 13 pips range only so far today. Talk about a snoozefest. We’re pretty much caught in the

The Reserve Bank of New Zealand statement is due at 2pm New Zealand time today, Wednesday, 10 July 2024. which is is 0200 GMT on the 10thand 2200 US Eastern time on the 9th Earlier previews are here, no change to the cash rate is expected: New Zealand – RBNZ shadow board recommends the Reserve

There are a couple to take note of, as highlighted in bold. The first ones are for EUR/USD at 1.0770-75. However, the expiries do not hold much technical significance with key support still seen at around 1.0795-00 currently. That coincides with the confluence of the key daily moving averages. As such, I wouldn’t expect the

Fundamental Overview The USD weakened across the board last Friday following the soft US NFP report. The data showed some more labour market cooling with an increase in the unemployment rate and a decrease in wage growth. We basically have an economy that is slowing but still growing. We will see if the market will

Fundamental Overview Gold erased all the gains from the US NFP report on Monday with some pointing to the news of China remaining on pause for the second consecutive month on gold purchases as the likely culprit. Overall, nothing has changed fundamentally, and the bullish bias should remain intact. As of now, it looks like

If yesterday was a boring day on the data front, today it’s even worse. There’s nothing scehduled for today. We will hear from some central bank speakers and we will get another session of Fed Chair Powell although, as it’s usually the case, he won’t add anything new that he hasn’t already said yesterday. Central

Reserve Bank of New Zealand signalled a nearer term rate cut. I posted earlier: *** Committee expecting headline inflation to return to within the 1 to 3 percent target range in the second half of this year If that’s the case why wouldn’t we expect a rate cut soon? I think the RBNZ agree, judging

Federal Reserve speakers on Wednesday include Bostic and MusalemNew Zealand rate pricing implies 25bp rate cut for October vs. 16 before RBNZ statementNZD/USD drops after the RBNZ statement – hints of a closer rate cutRBNZ leaves it cash rate on hold at 5.5%, as expectedChina June 2024 CPI +0.2% y/y (expected +0.4%) and PPI -0.8%

An ICYMI from Goldman Sachs Asset Management (GSAM), bullish on Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) rate cuts ahead. Info comes via Reuters. “It’s absolutely a soft landing … as the data comes through, that’s what we’re seeing.” expect the Fed to begin cutting in Septemberrate cuts could then continue @ 25 basis points per quarter

WPAC response to the RBNZ, in brief: Dovish RBNZ surprise for marketsagainst expectations that the brief statement would repeat the key messages from May, it was less hawkish. Guidance, via the final paragraph in the statement, was: “The Committee agreed that monetary policy will need to remain restrictive. The extent of this restraint will be

Good morning, afternoon and evening all. Any charts, technical analysis, trade ideas, thoughts, views, ForexLive traders would like to share and discuss with fellow ForexLive traders, please do so: This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

In fact, the rates market is pricing in nearly two rate cuts for the remainder three meetings by the RBNZ for this year now. The first full rate cut is priced in for October, with odds of an August move also bumped up to ~60% currently. Traders are seeing ~46 bps of rate cuts by

Still solid rises for inflation at the wholesale level. USD/JPY is little changed around 161.36 — The Producer Price Index (PPI) in Japan is also known as the Corporate Goods Price Index (CGPI) its a measure of the average change over time in the selling prices received by domestic producers for their outputis calculated by

? When you buy something through one of the links on our site, we may earn an affiliate commission. In this tutorial, I’ll show you how to use the backtesting function in TradingView and give you the benefits and downsides of this platform, based on my personal experience. This powerful tool allows traders to test

An interesting opinion piece from a US University of Maryland economist and emeritus business professor, Peter Morici, carried by Dow Jones Newswires (gated). Says the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) should not cut the Fed Funds rate, “Fed policymakers appear to have lost touch with economic reality”. Citing: federal deficit this year will be 6.7%

0730 GMT / 0330 US Eastern time: Bank of France Governor François Villeroy de Galhau holds press conference The European Central Bank next meet on 18 July 2024. The Bank lopped off 25bp at its June meeting. While July is live expectations are for a hold. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

The statement is here: RBNZ leaves it cash rate on hold at 5.5%, as expected The part I highlighted is this: *** Committee expecting headline inflation to return to within the 1 to 3 percent target range in the second half of this year If that’s the case why wouldn’t we expect a rate cut

The equity market showed some modest disappointment that Fed Chair Jerome Powell didn’t offer more of a dovish narrative but quickly shrugged off the disappointment and hung onto gains. It was the fifth consecutive higher close for the S&P 500, all records. S&P 500 +0.1%Nasdaq Comp +0.1%DJIA -0.1%Russell 2000 -0.5%Toronto TSX Comp -0.4% Tomorrow features

The price of crude oil settled at $81.41. That is down $-0.92 or -1.12%.The fall is the 3rd day in a row lower. Technically, looking at the daily chart, the high price on Friday – before the move lower – peaked at $84.52. That price tested the topside trendline connecting highs from April 2023 and

This is shocking stuff from Goldman Sachs’s chief economist Jan Hatzius. Perhaps he is just conveying his research, but I would have thought Goldman Sachs would not want to be associated with this. Anyway, this might upset some folks, but here goes: Jan Hatzius, at the European Central Bank annual conference in Sintra, Portugal, outlined

RBC tiptoe into the political minefield of the US election. It’s a critical event ahead, so we are all going to have to. On the USD, RBC cite election uncertainty: “Until we have more clarity on post-election policy, our 2025 dollar profile remains pretty flat,” Analysts paint a broad outline of scenarios under the two

In the post-Bretton Woods era, US FX interventions have become rare in the 21st century. Influenced by the Plaza and Louvre Accords, US FX policy evolved under Secretary Robert Rubin’s “strong dollar” stance in the 1990s. Interventions were limited in the 21st century, with notable instances in 2000 and 2011. Recent administrations have generally favored

more to come — Expectations I had seen centred on: Headline crude -1.3 mn barrelsDistillates +0.8 mn bblsGasoline -0.6 mn — This data point is from a privately-conducted survey by the American Petroleum Institute (API). It’s a survey of oil storage facilities and companiesThe official report is due Wednesday morning US time. The two reports

Newswires with info on wage growth in the euro zone, data via the latest, June, Indeed Wage Tracker. The European Central Bank use this survey in policy deliberations, frequently referred to by chief economist at the bank, Lane. Salaries for jobs advertised on the Indeed website were up 3.7% year-on-year in Junefrom 3.5% in the

The GBPJPY has been trending higer since mid-June. That move to the topside has been using the 100 and 200 hour MAs since mid-June as the roadmap or guiding light. When there were some dips below the 100 hour MA, either the 200 hour MA stalled the fall, or the break of the 100 hour

At PredictIt, the implied odds of President Biden sticking around to fight for another term bumped up to 63% today from about 54% at this time yesterday. He appears to be trying to rally the troops, saying that he isn’t going anywhere. That’s left vulnerable Congressmen in a tough spot. They can try to force

Eurostoxx -0.7%Germany DAX -0.6%France CAC 40 -0.9%UK FTSE flatSpain IBEX -0.7%Italy FTSE MIB -0.5% This comes after the early gains yesterday were mostly erased by the time the closing bell rung. The CAC 40 ended 0.6% lower while other indices were largely flat or marginally down on Monday. So, this carries over the softer mood

The USDCHF price action today is setting up traders for the Fed chair testimony at 10 AM ET. On the topside, the 100-day moving average resistance. That level comes in at 0.89903. It would take a move above that level to increase the bullish bias through the Fed chair testimony. On the downside, the 100

People’s Bank of China USD/CNY reference rate is due around 0115 GMT. The People’s Bank of China (PBOC), China’s central bank, is responsible for setting the daily midpoint of the yuan (also known as renminbi or RMB). The PBOC follows a managed floating exchange rate system that allows the value of the yuan to fluctuate

European indices are ending the day down as the aftermath of the elections continue to bother investors. France will have trouble forming a government given their mix. The UK Labour take charge after 14 years of a Tory rule. Uncertainty in lead to selling and that is what we’ve seen in the equity market today

The market appears to be partly disappointed by Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell’s comments today as some were hoping for a clearer timeline on when rate hikes could come. Instead, Powell offered no indications that a cut would be on the table at the July 31 meeting and leaned on data beyond that. Powell said

ECB board member Piero Cipollone will be speaking at digital euro event organised by the Central Bank of Cyprus 0900 GMT / 0500 US Eastern timeits in a video message format This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

The WI level is at 4.407%. The full results will be announced in a minute or two. The component history shows: Tail: 1.1bps last, six-auction average -0.1bpsBid-to-Cover: 2.43x last, six-auction average 2.57xDealers: 20.0% last, six-auction average 17.0%Directs: 15.9% last, six-auction average 17.8%Indirects: 64.1% last, six-auction average 65.2% This article was written by Greg Michalowski at

High Yield: %, six-auction average 4.390%Tail: -0.8 bps, six-auction average -0.1bpsBid-to-Cover: 2.67x, six-auction average 2.57xDealers: 14.8%, six-auction average 17.0%Directs: 21.3.%, six-auction average 17.8%Indirects: 64.0%, six-auction average 65.2% AUCTION GRADE: A- The coupon auction for the week has gotten off to a strong start with the three year note auction attracting solid demand. The best bid

The US stock market is shifting. Whereas the Dow Industrial Average average has been lower for most the day has now turned positive. The NASDAQ index which has been higher most the day has given up the gains and has moved into negative territory (it trades above and below unchanged). The snapshot of the market

The broader US stock indices are trading higher at the U.S. open. The Dow 30 is trading marginally lower as it continues to lag. Both the S&P and NASDAQ indices closed at record levels yesterday (4th straight for the S&P and 5th straight for the Nasdaq). The Dow Industrial Average average is still short of

British Retail Consortium (BRC) data: Like for like sales -0.5% y/y in June (Like-for-like sales data strips out the impact of changes in store size.) prior +0.4% in May total sales -0.2% y/y in June prior +0.7% Data also from Barclays: spending on its credit and debit cards fell by 0.6% y/y Junefirst drop since

To give some backdrop to his speech later, this will be his semi-annual testimony to Congress. It is one over the course of two days but usually the first day is the only one that matters. And typically when the text is released ahead of the testimony, that is when markets will start looking for

The USDJPY has caught a bid as yields move higher (10 year up around 5 basis points). Chair Powell is more neutral. The US treasury will auction 3, 10, and 30 year coupon issues this week. Perhaps higher yield is being impacted by the need to push them higher to attract buyers. The move to

Tech sector takes center stage in today’s market movements Today’s stock market presented a fascinating tableau of mixed sentiments, with particular attention on the semiconductor and technology sectors which showcased significant movement. Let’s dive into the diverse performances across the board and uncover the undercurrents driving today’s market dynamics. 📈 Semiconductor Sector: A robust recovery

The AUDUSD traders are pushing against close support at a swing area between 0.67278 and 0.6738. So far the price has been able to hold support against the lower end of that extreme in up-and-down trading. Recall from yesterday, the high for the day found willing sellers against a swing high going back to January

The USDCAD has been trading in an up-and-down trading range over the last few days . The low yesterday was at 1.36238. The high price today was at 1.3647. That’s not a lot of movement. Within the range sits its 100 day moving average between the two levels at 1.36369, and price action has been

The Nikkei 225 had a big day today, rising nearly 2% to an all-time high. It’s a sign of an ongoing breakout after finally cracking the 1990 high earlier this year. Blackrock Investment Institute says there is more to come, calling long Japanese equities one of its highest conviction equity ideas. One area they are

The US economic calendar is light again today but the Fed calendar has a headliner: Jerome Powell will testify in DC at 10 am ET. The comments are often released early so we’re on guard. I wrote a preview yesterday: How much more confident will Powell be on inflation? Justin also wrote this: Powell to

The EIA is out with its recent short-term energy outlook: Raises forecast for 2024 world oil demand, now seeing a 1.10 million BPD year-over-year increase.Raises 2025 forecast for world oil demand growth by 300,000 BPD, now seeing a 1.80 million BPD year-over-year increase.Raises forecast for 2024 US oil production by 10,000 BPD. Now expects output

Oil demand numbers over the July 4th weekend weren’t as strong as many in the market had hoped and that’s putting a damper on crude this week. WTI was trading higher earlier in US trade but has quickly shifted lower, falling $1.00 to $81.32. At 4:30 pm ET, the private oil inventory data will be

Reducing restraint too late or too little could unduly weaken economy and job market the risks to achieving our employment and inflation goals are coming into better balanceMore good data would strengthen our confidence on inflationRate cut not appropriate until Fed gains greater confidence inflation headed sustainably toward 2%Q1 data didn’t support greater confidenceWe continue

This marks the highest reading since December last year, although the trend remains that it has been 30 consecutive months since the index has been above its long-term average of 98. With the US elections coming up in the months ahead, I wouldn’t anticipate too strong a bounce in sentiment given the relative uncertainty. That

As the dollar and yields slumped on Friday, gold jumped up by 1.5% with buyers hopeful for another run at the $2,400 mark. But they were dealt a blow in trading yesterday, as the precious metal slumped by 1.4% in what is basically a reset move. In the bigger picture, it sees gold stay in

Fundamental Overview Bitcoin has been under heavy selling pressure for the entire month of June as a couple of bearish drivers continued to weigh on the market. First, we had the fears around the Bitcoin repayments to old Mt. Gox clients with expectations that they would sell their Bitcoins or at least part of it.

Fundamental Overview The USD weakened across the board since last Friday following the soft US NFP report. The data showed some more labour market cooling with an increase in the unemployment rate and a decrease in wage growth. We basically have an economy that is slowing but still growing. We will see if the market

NY Fed survey on consumer expectations: One year inflation 3.0% vs 3.2% priorBiden interview: I am runningBiden letter to congress says he’s ‘firmly commited’ to staying in the raceUS consumer credit outstanding +11.35B vs +9.50B expectedUS employment trends 110.27 vs 111.44 priorABC News: Presidential candidate Trump will announce his VP candidate by next MondayHamas leader

The opening statement from Fed Chair Jerome Powell wasn’t pre-released but will hit the wires at the top of the hour. After he reads them aloud, he will start taking questions from Senators. Expect the usual non-sense, grandstanding and occasional accidental comedy. This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

Apart from what has already been posted there is no fresh news. JPY, EUR, AUD, CHF, GBP, NZD, CAD have all lost ground against the dollar in Asia morning trade. USD index, DXY: This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

Fundamental Overview The USD weakened across the board since last Friday following the soft US NFP report. The data showed some more labour market cooling with an increase in the unemployment rate and a decrease in wage growth. We basically have an economy that is slowing but still growing. We will see if the market

The New Zealand Institute of Economic Research (NZIER) runs a ‘shadow board’ of analysts. The Shadow Board is independent of the RBNZ and does not represent what the RBNZ is going to do but rather what their view is that the RBNZ should do. That is, the Shadows do not preview what they think will

Fed’s Powell said decisions are made meeting by meeting. He sees solid increases in consumer spending, moderate growth in capital spending, and a pickup in residential investment. He characterizes the labor market as strong but not overheated. He says that more good data would strengthen their confidence. He also said that elevated inflation is not

Robert Kaplan, former president of the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, is now at Goldman Sachs. During his time as head of the Dallas branch he was was well ahead of the curve saying inflation was not transitory. He spoke with CNBC on Monday, saying the Fed is going to lay the groundwork for a

Labor market is more-or-less back to pre-pandemic levelsWe’re very much balancing our two risks and that’s what we’re balancing these daysThe likely direction is that we begin to loosen policy at the right moment This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

Reuters with the info, citing unnamed ‘several trade sources’. Saudi crude oil exports to China will rebound in August to at least 44 million barrels following deep price cuts by state energy firm Saudi Aramco August exports to China will rise for the first time in four months, up from about 36 million barrels in

Japan finance minister Suzuki important to keep fiscal discipline to keep confidence in long-term fiscal healthclosely watching discussions at BOJ meeting with bond market Re BOJ meeting with bond market comment, the Bank of Japan is meeting with market participants over its moves to trim JGB purchases. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at

Should be ready to respond quickly to any shocks in one direction or the otherPrevious rate hikes will continue to dampen demand, output and inflation for months to comeWage growth can also be expected to ease That all sounds good but it’s not like that they are going to be doing so in July. Even

Fed Chair Powell will be testifying on Capitol Hill today (and tomorrow). The pre-release text of his comments were not released. HMMMM. Markets will be focused on his comments on inflation and the trend in inflation and for any clues on the potential for a initial rate cut going forward. With the uncertainty ahead, understanding

National Australia Bank monthly survey of business, for June 2024 Business Confidence 4.0 prior -3.0 Business Conditions also 4.0 prior 6.0the conditions index is a more objective measure compared with the sentiment-driven confidence indexindex of employment dropped 6 points to 0, under its long-run averagesales flat labour costs and purchase costs slowingproduct prices quarterly rate

Today is going to be another boring day on the data front with just the US NFIB Small Business Optimism Index on the agenda. The report contains important data and gives a broad view on the economic conditions of small businesses in the United States which employ roughly 50% of private sector employees. It’s not

The major US stock indices are drifting back to the downside as the market moves toward the day’s close. The move has the S&P now back in negative territory down -0.04%. That has the three day record closes in jeopardy. The NASDAQ index is still clinging to a small 0.06% gain. A close higher would

Reuters with its polling result on what is expected from the Bank of Korea. to hold its base rate steady at a 15 year of 3.5% through Q3 2024all 40 economists in the poll expect the BOK to leave the base rate unchanged at the July 11 meetingto cut by 25bps in Q4 Cited as

Fundamental Overview The USD weakened across the board since last Friday following the soft US NFP report. The data showed some more labour market cooling with an increase in the unemployment rate and a decrease in wage growth. We basically have an economy that is slowing but still growing. We will see if the market

Noting these, but they do seem unlikely to be of interest to traders. 1500 GMT / 1100 US Eastern time Speech by Bank of England Executive Director for Insurance Supervision, Gareth Truran at Insurance Asset Risk Webinar, ‘Solvency UK – Time to Build’0805 GMT / 0405 US Eastern time: Victoria Cleland, Executive Director, Payments, gives

US June NFIB small business optimism index 91.5 vs 90.5 priorECB’s Panetta says can gradually reduce rates in line with disinflation processPowell to rock the boat later today?European stocks shoved lower at the open after the stutter yesterdayBOJ shares briefing material on meeting with bond market participantsWhat are the main events for today?Eurostoxx futures -0.1%

iFX EXPO Asia 2024 is heading back to Thailand for 2+ days of B2B networking at the world’s leading online trading event. Excitement is building for this year’s iFX EXPO Asia 2024 as the leading online trading expo returns to the bustling city of Bangkok for the third time. iFX EXPO Asia 2024, the world’s

The USD is the strongest and the JPY is the weakest as the North American session begins. Relatively speaking, however, the major currencies are scrunched together to start the new session. Today, the Fed Chair Powell will give his semi-Annual Monetary Policy Report before the Senate Banking Committee, in Washington DC. The recent data has

Crude oil stop futures are settling at $82.33. That is down $0.83 or -1.00%. The high for the day reached $83.32. The low reached $82.10. Technically, looking at the hourly chart, the price has moved back below its 200-hour moving average at $82.59. Recall that back on June 26 and again on June 28, the

more to come This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

A note from Bank of America with their outlook for the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC). We maintain our view on a December cut based on trends in inflation But. they add: Risks are tilting towards an earlier cutnet softness in the jobs report should keep expectations of a cut this year in market pricing

Ahead of the meeting, the BOJ already collected some opinions from bond market players as noted here. So, this is mainly to share that as a starting point for discussions today and tomorrow. Here are some things to note. On the size of reduction of bond purchases, the BOJ questioned whether purchases should be reduced

Deutsche Bank’s George Saravelos spoke in an interview with Bloomberg TV, his main point on the EUR: “Imagine a situation where the US puts up a huge tariff wall against China,”“All these Chinese goods would have to get diverted into other markets including Europe, so therefore we would see a big deflationary shock in Europe.”

The S&P index moved back into negative territory with less than 30 minutes left in the trading day, but was able to recover into the close and once again ended the day in positive territory and at a new high closing level. It was the fourth consecutive record closing level for the S&P index .

Commerzbank on the Swiss National Bank and Swiss franc, looking for the currency to fall in the months ahead as the Bank cuts: SNB have clearly expressed that the strength of the Swissy is not welcomeSwiss National Bank is “therefore likely to counter this with further interest-rate cuts in the coming months” SNB could cut

Wilson spoke in an interview with Bloomberg TV, citing uncertainty over when the FOMC will cut rates, firms facing diminished pricing power, resulting an increased likelihood of disappointing earnings results. “The average company has not had good earnings results,” the big gain in the S&P 500 YTD 2024 has been powered by a small number

Fundamental Overview Crude oil has been on an incredible run since bottoming out around the $72.50 level in early June. The market eventually caught up to the positive drivers we had back then with the OPEC+’s extension of voluntary output cuts, and the pickup in economic activity seen from the global PMIs. The prospects of

The Topix might matter more for Japan these days, considering the shift in terms of ETF focus. But the Nikkei is still a key benchmark to watch, as it has been a cornerstone among Asian indices since forever. And with tech shares continuing to rip higher in the US, that is continuing to drive the

German DAX futures -0.1%UK FTSE futures +0.1% Meanwhile, US futures continue to look optimistic after the late rally yesterday. Both S&P 500 futures and Nasdaq futures are up 0.2% on the day currently. This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

The NZDUSD rallied toward the end of last week’s trading, after sellers had their shot on the break of both the 100/200 day MAs earlier in the week. The move higher initially extended to the 200 bar MA on the 4-hour chart, before correcting lower midweek. On Friday, buyers returned after the US jobs report

A snippet from a Monday report from UBS, analysts at the firm looking for a solid Q2 earnings season: say that S&P 500 earnings could grow by 7.4% say that assuming a typical pace of revisions/surprises, growth is likely to finish at 10.5-11.0%expect EPS to grow 5.0% and 2.0% when measured on an equal weighted

Good morning, afternoon and evening all. Any charts, technical analysis, trade ideas, thoughts, views, ForexLive traders would like to share and discuss with fellow ForexLive traders, please do so: This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

There are just two to really take note of on the day, as highlighted in bold. They are both for EUR/USD at the 1.0800 and 1.0875 levels. The former is arguably the one with more interest, as it lines up near the key daily moving averages. The technical significance there alongside bids at the figure

Prior was +6.40B Rates are high but borrowers continue to borrow. This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

The Reserve Bank of New Zealand announce their decision at 2pm New Zealand time on Wednesday the 10th July which is is 0200 GMT on the 10thand 2200 US Eastern time on the 9th Earlier previews are here, no change to the cash rate is expected: New Zealand – RBNZ shadow board recommends the Reserve

The People’s Bank of China set the onshore yuan (CNY) reference rate for the trading session ahead. USD/CNY is the onshore yuan. Its permitted to trade plus or minus 2% from this daily reference rate.CNH is the offshore yuan. USD /CNH has no restrictions on its trading range.A significantly stronger or weaker rate than expected

More on the BOJ meetings with JGB market playersJapan finance minister Suzuki says fiscal discipline importantSaudi crude oil exports to China to rise for the first time in 4 monthsEuropean Central Bank’s Cipollone speaks on the digital euro on TuesdayTwo Bank of England speakers on Tuesday – may not be much in these for traders

South Korea’s central bank Governor Rhee Chang-yong spoke in a parliamentary session: said the Bank will consider trade-offs among the recent disinflation trend, growth and financial stability for future monetary policy operations I’m not sure what ‘trade-offs’ he is referring to. More: disinflation was expected to continue after recent positive signsnoted a pick-up in household

The Bank of Japan is holding in-person meetings with market participants over the next couple of days. Three meetings are scheduled with banks, securities firms and those buying bonds for financial institutions the meetings are aimed at gauging a realistic pace for a reduction of its Japanese Government Bond purchases.the Bank will be announcing the

The data releases due during Asian time on Tuesday are unlikely to move major FX around too much on the day. Traders here will be content to await Powell’s testimony Q&A: Federal Reserve Chair Powell is speaking on TuesdayHow much more confident will Powell be on inflation? This snapshot from the ForexLive economic data calendar,

That will likely continue to make for rather uninspiring price action among major currencies. The levels we’re seeing so far today are pretty much where we left off in European trading yesterday. It is only that the changes for the day today are leaving a lot to be desired, with narrow ranges still prevailing. USD/JPY

Data from China over the weekend showed the PBOC didn’t buy and gold in June, after buying none in May. That news has weighed on gold heavily today, erasing what looked like it could be a breakout on Friday. That highlights the push-and-pull in gold at the moment. Much of the run-up over the past

ANZ-Roy Morgan’s weekly survey of Australian Consumer Confidence fell 2.3pts on the weekhit its second lowest level for the year This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

The Fed chair will make a trip to Congress this week to deliver his semi-annual Humprey Hawkins testimony. He starts in the Senate on Tuesday at 10 am then visits the House in a repeat the following day. Powell is great at staying on-message so I wouldn’t expect any big drama in the Q&A periods.

This via the Wall Street Journal’s Fed watcher Timiraos summarising inflation forecasts for June. The data is due on Thursday July 11 at 8.30 am US Eastern time (1230 GMT) and will be a key factor for the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) into interest rate moves ahead. The Fed is expected to hold at

Analysts at Rabobank say that the data yesterday on Japanese wages (ICYMI, here: Japan inflation adjusted wages -1.4% y/y in May) could pose problems for the Bank of Japan raising interest rates. However, Rabo sees real wages recovering this quarter and next through due to the effects of wage rises agreed to in spring filtering

Equity researchers Oppenheimer: We are increasing our year-end target price for the S&P 500 to $5,900 (from $5,500) and raising our earnings projection to $255 from $250 for the S&P 500 in 2024. Our upwardly-adjusted price target and earnings projection assume a higher P/E multiple of 23.1x up from 22x with our earlier target Earlier

MUFG sees the long AUD/NZD trade as attractive due to diverging monetary policies between the RBA and RBNZ. The AUD has outperformed the NZD over the past month, driven by speculation of RBA policy shifts, while the RBNZ is expected to remain on hold. Key Points: Performance Divergence: AUD has been the best performing G10

We saw the first big hurricane of the year make landfall in the US today. It won’t be the last as the hurricane season doesn’t peak until September. The good news is that there are no systems anywhere in the Atlantic that look like they could spin up in the next few days. The bad

For a run down of the NFP, market moves, and implications, check this out: Forexlive Americas FX news wrap 5 Jul: NFP for June sent the USD lower/yields tumbling On Sunday Wall Street Journal Fed watcher Timiraos said the result boosted the chance of a Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) rate cut at the September

Eurostoxx -0.2%Germany DAX flatFrance CAC 40 -0.5%UK FTSE -0.3%Spain IBEX -0.4%Italy FTSE MIB -0.2% France looks headed for a political gridlock and that’s not making for much optimism to start the week. The overall risk mood is also more tepid though, with S&P 500 futures seen down 0.1%. This article was written by Justin Low

Headlines: Upsets still do happen in politicsWeekly update on interest rates expectationsECB’s Knot: There is no reason to cut rates in JulyBOE’s Haskel says would rather hold rates until there is more certainty on inflationBOJ maintains economic assessment for 5 of Japan’s 9 regions in latest ‘Sakura Report’Eurozone July Sentix investor confidence -7.3 vs 0.0

Earlier, Hamas said that Israel’s Netanyahu is placing hurdles in front of cease-fire negotiations. They called on mediators to interfere against maneuvers and crimes of Israel’s Netanyahu. Now Axios is reporting that a senior Hamas official believes that in the wake of new Israeli evacuation order in the Western neighborhoods of Gaza city, that negotiations

Ethereum held the April low in an earlier slump and is now trading flat. CNBC reports that a round of filing for spot ether ETFs with the SEC are due today and “approval could come as soon as this week or next.” This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

Market Mood and Trends In today’s stock market session, a notable positive uptick was observed in semiconductor and other tech sectors, suggesting a resurgence of investor confidence in these industries. Contrarily, communication services showed a mixed response with noteworthy stocks like Google experiencing a decline. Here’s a deeper dive into how various sectors performed and

In political news, ABC news is reporting that presidential candidate Donald Trump will announces VP candidate by next Monday. Meanwhile, the Dems are in disarray as some call for Pres. Biden to withdrawal from his run for President, while he continues to push forward. It was announced earlier that Biden is to deliver remarks and

The USDCHF moved lower last week after testing a swing area and a key downward-sloping trend line successfully. The price decline ultimately took the price back below its 100-day moving average. That moving average now joins with the 200 bar moving average on the 4-hour chart as topside resistance near 0.8988 (see blue and green

Algorithms now handle more than 75% of the trading in spot markets for FX and those numbers are accelerating as trading desks roll out more and more software for clients. Bloomberg on Sunday wrote about Viper, Iguana and Chameleon — three algos at BNP Paribas that are executing an increasing number of orders. Rather than

On Friday, I did a video on the GBPJPY outlining the trend move and what needed to happen to break the buyers’ control – even by the a little. Trends are fast, directional, and tend to go further than what traders expect. As a result, it often makes sense to let the price action –

Need more certainty that inflation pressures have subsided sustainablyLooking closely at labour market conditions and inflation indicators such as services inflationRecent wage data is consistent with the idea that “underlying” unemployment rate has risenThere are considerable second-round effects at play currently, will fade over the coming years It’s good that his remarks are focusing on

S&P 500 futures are up 0.1% as we get set to open the week. The market rose strongly last week — as it often does during the first week of July — and closed at a record high. This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

The AUDUSD has been trading up and down today after last week’s move higher. The run higher today extended up to a new high going back to January. That high stalled right near the January 4 swing high before its rotation lower (at that time). The subsequent fall from the January 4 high, took 3/4

European traders have headed for the exits with mixed results in the major stock indices. France CAC was the worst performer with a decline of -0.63% after their election results ended in a political stalemate. Neither the right nor the left can likely for me coalition government. Investors are not very happy. The final numbers

It’s typical of the people taking over to downplay the situation they’re walking into. Cable certainly hasn’t shirked about the change though, as it climbs for the sixth straight day. This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

Prior €22.1 billion The trade surplus expanded but not in the right way, with exports slumping by 3.6% on the month while imports falling by 6.6% on the month. The details show that exports to China fell by 10.2% on the month while imports from the UK fell by 9.3% on the month. Foreign trade

The left wing New Popular Front coalition is projected to have won the most seats in France’s National Assembly after the election over the weekend. CBA analysts are wary that the parties in the coalition want a big increase in spending, adding to France’s already large budget deficit and deb. Also wary of how a

The dollar was dragged lower after the US job report on Friday here. The headline figure belies the softer details and markets eventually picked up on that to punish the greenback. Equities ripped higher as bond yields fell, as the hot start to July trading continues for stocks. There are some key technical considerations now

The worries surrounding the French election results saw EUR/USD open with a gap lower at 1.0800 earlier today. But the pair is keeping its upside bias, with buyers staving off a test of the figure level and the key daily moving averages at 1.0794-97. That allowed for a modest bounce with the pair now hovering

1 year inflation 3.0% vs 3.2% prior3 year inflation 2.9% vs 2.8% prior5 year inflation 2.8% vs 3.0% priorExpected home price rise 3% vs 3.3% priorConsumers see slower price growth for rent, food, medical care, college and gasExpected year-ahead earnings growth best since Sept 2023Perceptions of household financial situation lost ground in JuneThe mean perceived

Crypto coming under pressure. There is no obvious fresh catalyst We’re on approach to Friday’s low, there should be some work to do around here This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

A look at today’s economic calendar shows why many Americans might have opted for a five-day weekend. The lone items are June employment trends at 10 am ET and consumer credit at 3 pm ET. Neither are market movers and the Fed calendar is also bare. In the market, the US dollar is under some

The S&P index has closed at a new record for three consecutive days. The NASDAQ index has closed at a record level for four consecutive days. Both of those indices are trading higher in early US trading to start the new trading week. Although higher, the Dow industrial average is leading the three majors. A

This is low-tier aggregate data but highlights the trend lower. “The ETI fell in June, continuing the downward trajectory observed since the measure peaked in March 2022,” said Will Baltrus, Associate Economist at The Conference Board. “June’s ETI downtick signals employment could fall in the second half of 2024. However, the index remains above its

Rate cuts by year-end Fed: 50 bps (93% probability of no change at the next meeting) ECB: 42 bps (78% probability of no change at the next meeting) BoE: 50 bps (62% probability of rate cut at the next meeting) BoC: 55 bps (60% probability of rate cut at the next meeting) RBNZ: 40 bps

The People’s Bank of China set the onshore yuan (CNY) reference rate for the trading session ahead. USD/CNY is the onshore yuan. Its permitted to trade plus or minus 2% from this daily reference rate.CNH is the offshore yuan. USD /CNH has no restrictions on its trading range.A significantly stronger or weaker rate than expected

Biden spoke in an interview with MSNBC and said: I am not going to explain any more about what I should or shouldn’t do: I am running. It’s a pivotal week but this could also prove to be one of the all-time bad political miscalculations. As for markets, Bridgewater is out with comments on a

The USDCAD moved lower last week and into a key swing area between 1.3596 and 1.36154. That swing area is joined by its rising 200 day moving average currently at 1.3596 as well. The low price extended to 1.36017 before bouncing higher after the jobs reports in Canada and the US on Friday The subsequent

According to the EU’s Copernicus Climate Change Service (C3S), 2024 is on course to rank as the hottest year on record as climate change continues to push temperatures to record highs so far this year. They are pinning it as an approximately 95% probability that this year will beat the record set in 2023 last

Says he had extensive conversations with Democratic party leaders and elected officialsSays he would not be running if he didn’t think he was the best person to defeat TrumpVoters alone pick presidential candidates, not pundits, donors or the press At the end of the day, the only one who can push Biden out at this

1615 GMT / 1215 US Eastern time: Bank of England Monetary Policy Committee member Jonathan Haskel speech: “UK inflation: What’s done and what’s to come?” organised by the ESCoE statistics research group Also coming up from the UK, though I haven’t got a time for it: UK Chancellor Reeves speaks Monday: Focus on making economic

Prior 0.3 It’s a bit of a setback after eight straight months of improvement in the index. There were declines in both the current situation and expectations readings, with German economic sentiment turning lower in particular. What is more damning is that the hopeful boost from the Euro 2024 championships doesn’t look to be materialising.

Federal Reserve Chair Powell is speaking on TuesdayBank of England Monetary Policy Committee member Haskel is speaking on inflation on MondayBank of America doubts over US inflation returning to 2% – “gimme shelter (disinflation)”Analysts wary on the EUR in the wake of the French electionUK Chancellor Reeves speaks Monday: Focus on making economic growth a

For many in the Democratic party, the July 4th long weekend would have been an opportune moment for President Biden to announce that he was no longer seeking re-election. Instead, he doubled down and survived an unremarkable sit-down interview with ABC. A total of 5 congressional Democrats are now publicly calling for Biden to withdraw

Last Friday, we got the US NFP report. Now, I’m not an economist, so I try to look at it from a market participant’s perspective gathering analyses from the experts in labour market data. Overall, the report was relatively soft. The 3-month moving average of employment gains fell to 177K, which is the lowest since

Fundamental Overview Last Friday, gold spiked to the upside following the US NFP report. The data showed some more labour market cooling with an increase in the unemployment rate and a decrease in wage growth. That made the real yields to drop and gold to accelerate to the upside. This has been the case for

In the kickstart video, I take a look at the 3-major currency pairs – the EURUSD, USDJPY and GBPUSD. EURUSD: The EURUSD is trading near session highs as the North American session begins, and looks toward eight swing area between 1.08538 and 1.08617. The 1.08618 level also corresponds with the 50% midpoint of the range

As the North American session begins, the GBP is the strongest and the JPY is the weakest. The USDJPY moved down to test a key swing level (and found buyers). The US stocks – after closing at records in the S&P and the Nasdaq – are little changed. European markets are higher. Yields in the

Here’s the detailed breakdown: On price trends, the BOJ notes that many regions are saying wage hikes are spreading among smaller firms. So, that is a positive consideration that the central bank is laying out as they seek to hike rates further down the road. This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

Monday has no significant events scheduled, but Tuesday, all eyes will be on Fed Chair Powell, who is set to testify on the Semi-Annual Monetary Policy Report before the Senate Banking Committee in Washington DC. His testimony will continue Wednesday and other FOMC members are also expected to deliver their remarks throughout the week. Last

Domestic sight deposits CHF 444.4 bn vs CHF 443.0 bn prior Swiss sight deposits have stabilised somewhat in the past few weeks, after having fallen in the months before. Here’s the trend: This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

Light crude oil futures technical analysis and trade idea, for short 👋 Hello traders and investors! This is Itai Levitan from ForexLive.com, bringing you the latest technical analysis and trade ideas for Light Crude Oil Futures. Let’s dive into the current market setup and discuss potential strategies for your consideration. Oil futures trend analysis 📈

German DAX futures -0.1%French CAC 40 futures -0.5%UK FTSE futures -0.1% The more tepid mood in US futures also isn’t too helpful, with S&P 500 futures down 0.2% on the day. But for European equities, it’s mostly about the French elections. I shared some thoughts earlier here. This article was written by Justin Low at

British Chambers of Commerce (BCC) survey: 39% of member companies it surveyed expected to raise prices over the next three monthsdown from 46% in its previous survey published in April More results: sales and cashflow improved in Q2 2024 to pre-pandemic levelsshare of firms expecting an increase in turnover in the next 12 months rose

The next truly open meeting is in SeptemberWe are comfortable with the progress in disinflation, market pricing on rate cuts It isn’t anything that we don’t already know. Knot also adds that the date in which they must meet the inflation target must not slip beyond 2025. Well, we’ll see. I mean, they have a

Fundamental Overview The USD weakened across the board last Friday following the soft US NFP report. The data showed some more labour market cooling with an increase in the unemployment rate and a decrease in wage growth. We basically have an economy that is slowing but growing. We will see if the market will be

Australian Home Loans for May 2024 -1.7%, dropping back from the strong performance in April: prior +4.8% Owner – Occupier Loan value -2.0% m/m prior +4.3% Investor Loan Value -1.3% m/m prior +5.6% This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

There is just one to take note of, as highlighted in bold. That being for EUR/USD at the 1.0785 level. It isn’t one that offers much technical significance but could act alongside the key daily moving averages at 1.0794-97 in locking any downside price action in the session ahead. The reaction to the French election

The data agenda is of lower-tier releases only. Not likely to shove major FX rates around too much upon release. Of most interest is likely to be the wages data from Japan. Japanese policy authorities are awaiting wage growth to fuel inflation and thus moves to further normalise monetary policy (the BoJ meet on the

ICYMI, info on the US employment report, market response etc is here: Forexlive Americas FX news wrap 5 Jul: NFP for June sent the USD lower/yields tumbling Meanwhile, via Goldman Sachs note: the report overall was softer-than-expected, and downward revisions lowered the three-month average pace to +177k from +249k as previously reportedThe industry composition was

Rick Rieder is BlackRock’s CIO of Global Fixed Income. He’s posted up a tweet storm on Friday’s jobs report, in brief: there is a very gradual, but persistent, moderation within the broader employment pictureWhen you sum up the conditions of these employment indicators and the trend that they clearly depict, in terms of cooling, and

People’s Bank of China USD/CNY reference rate is due around 0115 GMT. The People’s Bank of China (PBOC), China’s central bank, is responsible for setting the daily midpoint of the yuan (also known as renminbi or RMB). The PBOC follows a managed floating exchange rate system that allows the value of the yuan to fluctuate

Good morning, afternoon and evening all. Any charts, technical analysis, trade ideas, thoughts, views, ForexLive traders would like to share and discuss with fellow ForexLive traders, please do so: This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

It was supposed to be Le Pen’s coronation and it ended up being anything but that. Her National Rally (RN) faction was handily defeated over the weekend as the French people rejected a far-right government. The combined efforts by Macron’s Ensemble bloc and the leftish coalition, the New Popular Front (NFP) worked wonders in creating

Data from China over the weekend showed the PBOC didn’t buy and gold in June, after buying none in May. The two consecutive month pause comes after the Bank had been a consistent buyer in the 18 months prior. China held 72.80 million troy ounces of gold at the end of June, same as the

Chairman of the Swiss National Bank (SNB) Thomas Jordan spoke on in an interview published on Friday by Le Temps. Adam had the headlines. ICYMI Jordan had pointed comments on the Swiss franc: CHF can be significantly influenced by political “uncertainties” both within Europe and globally“This is something we need to take into consideration” and

TMGM, a trailblazer in global online trading and investment services, took center stage as the Gold Sponsor of the Vanuatu Financial Services Commission’s (VFSC) groundbreaking Second Symposium on Virtual Assets. This pivotal event, held on Thursday, June 27, 2024, in Port Vila, convened an elite gathering of finance brokers, regulators, government officials, and international experts

Coming up on Monday, a speech from Rachel Reeves, Britain’s first female Chancellor Will cover topics such as:wholesale planning reforms to make it easier to buildgreater focus on driving through key infrastructure projectsboost housebuilding“Where governments have been unwilling to take the difficult decisions to deliver growth – or have waited too long to act –

Today is going to be a boring day on the data front as we don’t have literally anything on the calendar. The markets will likely trade based on the Friday’s US NFP report or we might see some general consolidation in the next couple of days as we head into the US CPI on Thursday.

As is usual for a Monday morning, market liquidity is very thin until it improves as more Asian centres come online … prices are liable to swing around, so take care out there. The mover in this very time is EUR, down from its level late Friday after the French election appears to have reulsted

The Reserve Bank of New Zealand announce their decision at 2pm New Zealand time on Wedensday the 10th July, which is is 0200 GMT on the 10th and 2200 US Eastern time on the 9th. Brief comments via Westpac on what to expect: we are not anticipating any change in the OCR – which will

Bank of America say that the confidence of the Federal Reserve seeing inflation returning to 2% will come down to shelter inflation. BoA cite the importance of the sector due to its weight in cor CPI and core PCE inflation. BoA argue that if shelter does not move lower, then achieving 2% core inflation requires

Its beginning to feel like Asia FX is going to sit on hand awaiting Powell on Tuesday, and perhaps some feedback from him on the jobs report Friday, ICYMI: Forexlive Americas FX news wrap 5 Jul: NFP for June sent the USD lower/yields tumbling On Tuesday, 9 July 2024, at 1400 GMT / 1000 user

Substantial losses in the crypto and decentralized finance (DeFi) sectors YTD amounting to USD 1.19billion. The report comes via Finance Magnates: citing a report from blockchain security firm CertiK: phishing attacks emerged as the most damaging vector, accounting for $497.7 million in losses across 150 incidents. “Q2 2024 experienced the highest losses since Q3 of

Japan’s inflation-adjusted, ie real, wages fell in May for a record 26th straight month, down 1.4% y/y April was -1.2%falling after inflation wages is dampening household spending, which in turn is making the BoJ’s efforts to normalise monetary policy uncertainweak yen and higher commodity prices pushed up the cost of imports There are some better

Let me first jump to CBA’s conclusion on what to watch ahead: We expect a Q2 trimmed mean CPI of 0.9%/qtr or less would see the RBA leave the cash rate on hold in August (our forecast is 0.9%/qtr). An outcome of 1.1% /qtr or above would mean an August rate hike is more likely

KiwiBank with a forthright preview of the RBNZ meeting this week (Wednesday) Any talk of hikes now would be overkill. The data has clearly turned. Of course, there are still some hurdles to get through. We still need to see inflation back within the RBNZ’s 1-3% target band. A hard task that should be accomplished

The French left-wing alliance is projected to win 172 to 192 seats. This is well short of a majority but is ahead of Marine Le Pen’s far-right National Rally, looking at coming third with 132 to 152 seats. President Macron’s centrist party, Ensemble, will win 150 to 170 seats. None of these three has a

Week Ahead 7th-12th July: Sun: French Election (second round)Mon: CNB Minutes (June), Eurogroup Informal meeting of Competitiveness Ministers; Japanese Overtime Pay (May),German Trade Data (May), EZ Sentix Index (July), BoI Announcement, US Employment TrendsTue: BoJ Bond Meeting 9-10, EIA STEO; Australian Consumer Sentiment, Hungarian CPI (June), Mexican 12-monthInflation (June), Powell Testimony (Senate)Wed: RBNZ Announcement, OPEC