Federal Reserve Chair Powell is speaking on TuesdayBank of England Monetary Policy Committee member Haskel is speaking on inflation on MondayBank of America doubts over US inflation returning to 2% – “gimme shelter (disinflation)”Analysts wary on the EUR in the wake of the French electionUK Chancellor Reeves speaks Monday: Focus on making economic growth a “national mission”Australian housing finance data for May -1.7% m/m (prior +4.8%)Bitcoin, Ether both slammed lowerPBOC sets USD/ CNY reference rate for today at 7.1286 (vs. estimate at 7.2640)RBNZ Monetary Policy Review due Wednesday – “not expecting a whole lot”BlackRock’s Rieder: generous yielding fixed income assets – historically attractive valueUS$1.2bn in cryptocurrency, DeFi losses in H1 of 2024 due to hacks, scams, & exploitsJapan inflation adjusted wages -1.4% y/y in MayPeople’s Bank of China bought zero gold for a second month in a row in JuneReserve Bank of New Zealand policy meeting this week – preview (on hold widely expected)Goldman Sachs on the US jobs data on Friday: NFP report overall was “softer-than-expected”BCC survey shows fewer UK firms plan to raise their prices in the coming monthsThe one critical number to watch for an August Reserve Bank Australia interest rate hikeICYMI: Swiss National Bank Chair Jordan ready “to intervene in FX market” if necessaryWeekend WSJ (Timiraos): “Case for September Rate Cut Builds After Slower Jobs Data”French election result – looks like a hung parliamentTrade ideas thread – Monday, 8 July, insightful charts, technical analysis, ideasMonday morning open levels – indicative forex prices – 08 July 2024 – EUR a touch lower
Weekend:
Newsquawk Week Ahead: US CPI, Powell testimony and US earningsWeekly Market Outlook (08-12 July)The inflation scare is over: The pandemic was a perfect stormForexlive Americas FX news wrap 5 Jul: NFP for June sent the USD lower/yields tumbling
EUR/USD
gapped lower in the early hours of Asia, prior to much liquidity
being available. The move was in response to the outcome of the
French election, with no one party coming close to a majority and the
prospect of a hung parliament looming. The right-wing National Rally,
led by Marine Le Pen failed to live up to high expectations, coming
in 3rd.
The
left-wign alliance outperformed, placed ahead of Macron’s
centrist. While
the risk of a far-right government has dropped for now, we’ll have to
see how the centre and left can cobble together a coalition majority,
if not there will be ongoing instability ahead.
After
its move lower EUR/USD recovered to (almost) cover its gap.
From
Japan we had wages data for May, with a mixed bad of results. Base
pay came in at its best since January 1993, while nominal wages were
the best in 11 months. So far, so good. The ‘but’ is that real
wages fell
for
a record
26th month in
a row. USD/JPY
has fallen a little on the session.
The
People’s Bank of China set the USD/CNY reference rate back on the
7.12 big figure today. The Bank announced that in
additional to its daily Open
Market
Operations
(OMOs)
in
the morning, it will also carry out temporary OMOs
in the afternoon to manage liquidity in the banking system. The
CNH showed some strength today.
Across
major FX ranges were fairly subdued.
BTC
and ETH, and other crypto, fell, with no fresh, clear, obvious
catalyst.
EUR/USD:
This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.
