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The US Unemployment has been steadily rising since March. What to expect next?

● The
US Department of Labor will release its report on Friday, the 5th of July.
Nonfarm payrolls (NFP) are expected to have declined to 190,000 in June. The
unemployment rate is projected to remain at 4.0%.

● Since
the beginning of the year, the interest of financial market participants has
increasingly shifted towards data on the US labour market, which has a great
impact on the exchange rate of the dollar.

● In
the previous month, the dollar index rose to 105.85 points.

On the 5th of July, the U.S. Labor Department
is due to submit another report on the number of people employed in the
non-agricultural sector. According to experts’ expectations, the number of
employed will decrease to 190,000 in June, despite the fact that in May this
figure was at the level of 272,000. Meanwhile, according to forecasts, the
unemployment rate will remain stable at 4.0%. The US Federal Reserve is already
receiving positive signals to reduce inflation and unemployment data combined
with NFP may strengthen sentiment in the direction of lowering the interest
rate in the coming months. As a result, a change in the interest rate will have
a strong impact on the entire financial market and on investor sentiment. On
Tuesday, the JOLTS Job Openings data showed an increase of 221,000 from the
previous month to 8.140 million in May 2024, exceeding expectations. This data
provides a positive signal for a potential reduction in unemployment. Average
hourly earnings for all employees on U.S. private nonfarm payrolls increased by
14 cents, or 0.4%, to $34.91 in May 2024. The U.S. unemployment rate reached a
two-year high, hitting 4.0% in May 2024, the lowest level in more than two
years. Analysts believe that the unemployment rate in June will remain at the
May level of 4.0%. “The increase in job openings could help address the
rising unemployment issue and, consequently, inflation,” said Kar Yong
Ang, a financial market analyst at Octa. “The rise in unemployment amid
increasing job openings indicates that the available jobs do not meet the
population’s expectations. Thus, the labor market is experiencing a
cooling,” he added. Over the past month, the U.S. Dollar Index increased
by 1.17% to 105.85 points. If the support level of 104 points is breached,
further decline in the U.S. Dollar Index to 101.9 points can be expected.
However, if the upward trend since the beginning of the year continues and
solidifies above the 106.5 level, market sentiment will favor U.S. dollar

About Octa

is an international broker that has been providing online trading services
worldwide since 2011. It offers commission-free access to financial markets and
various services already utilised by clients from 180 countries with more than
42 million trading accounts. Free educational webinars, articles, and
analytical tools they provide help clients reach their investment goals.

The company is involved in a comprehensive
network of charitable and humanitarian initiatives, including the improvement
of educational infrastructure and short-notice relief projects supporting local

Octa has also won over 70 awards since its
foundation, including the ‘Best Educational Broker 2023’ award from Global
Forex Awards and the ‘Best Global Broker Asia 2022’ award from International
Business Magazine.

This article was written by FL Contributors at www.forexlive.com.

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