Goldman Sachs: Sees upside risks to Brent prices in short term, with Brent rising to mid-$80s in 2025H1 if Iran supply drops 1mb/d on tighter sanctions enforcementSees medium-term price risks skewed to the downside given high spare capacityEstimates that Brent drops to the low $60s in 2026 in a 10% across-the-board tariff scenario or if […]

ECB Nagel is on the wires saying” PMI data confirm that Germany is stagnating and start of next year will be complicatedNeed to wait for next projections before discussing rate capsize.We are on the right track Nagel is considered more of a hawk. The EURUSD fell sharply earlier today off of the weaker than expected

Today is the Flash PMIs Day for the Eurozone, the UK and the US. We will also get the Canadian Retail Sales and the Final UMich Consumer Sentiment data although they are unlikely to be market moving. Eurozone Manufacturing PMI: 46.0 expected vs. 46.0 prior.Eurozone Services PMI: 51.6 expected vs. 51.6 prior.UK Manufacturing PMI: 50.0

Earlier today, I posted: USDCHF: The USDCHF held resistance at the 100-hour moving average yesterday (blue line on the chart below), and held support against its 200 hour moving average.Today in the early Asian hours, the price broke below the 200-hour moving average and continued down toward the next target at the 200-day moving average

A note from UBS highlights that despite stronger-than-expected UK inflation data and a recent rate cut by the Bank of England, market sentiment remains bearish on the British pound. The pound briefly spiked above $1.27 against the dollar after Wednesday’s robust CPI report, but gains were swiftly erased, reflecting broader dollar strength driving the GBP/USD

Wall Street Journal (gated) report: Trump has floated selecting financier Kevin Warsh as his Treasury secretary with the understanding that he could later be nominated to lead the Federal Reserve when Jerome Powell’s term as chair ends in 2026, according to people familiar with the matter.Trump was still weighing how he would approach the Fed

Japan inflation data October 2024, all figures are y/y. Headline national CPI 2.3% expected 2.2%, prior 2.5% CPI excluding Fresh Food & Energy 2.3% (often referred to as ‘core-core’ inflation, its the closest to US core inflation) expected Exp. 2.3%, prior 2.1% CPI excluding Fresh Food 2.3% (core inflation) expected Exp. 2.2%, prior 2.4% Yen

1230 GMT / 0730 US Eastern time: Speech by SNB’s Chairman of the Governing Board, Martin Schlegel, The SNB and its Watchers Carlos Lenz, Head of Economic Affairs, SNB is also speaking 1350 GMT / 0850 US Eastern time. This event, modeled after The ECB and Its Watchers, tries to bring together academics, market participants,

A note from Deutsche Bank analysts see them warning that a full-force implementation of the Trump administration’s economic agenda, without a counterbalancing response from Europe or China, could send the euro plunging against the U.S. dollar. EUR/USD could fall below parity, potentially reaching 0.95 or even lower. Under the most aggressive scenario, tariffs of 60%

Prior month 0.4%Retail sales for September x.x% vs 0.4% est.Ex Auto 0.9% vs 0.5% est. Prior month revised -0.8% from -0.7%Advanced retail sales estimate for October 0.7% Details: Retail sales increased 0.4% to $66.9 billion in September, with gains in six of nine subsectors, led by food and beverage retailers.Core retail sales (excluding gasoline, fuel

There is arguably just one to take note of on the day, as highlighted in bold. That being for EUR/USD at the 1.0500 level. However, just be wary that this comes after the daily break below the figure level yesterday but not for the first time in a long while though. We also got a

Prior +0.3%; revised to +0.1%Retail sales +2.4% vs +3.4% y/y expectedPrior +3.9%; revised to +3.2%Retail sales (ex autos, fuel) -0.9% vs -0.4% m/m expectedPrior +0.3%; revised to +0.1%Retail sales (ex autos, fuel) +2.0% vs +3.3% y/y expectedPrior +4.0%; revised to +3.2% UK retail sales slumped by more than expected last month, with a negative revision

Bowman speaking very late, but not, it appear, on monetary policy:2315 GMT / 1815 US Eastern time Federal Reserve Board Governor Michelle Bowman speaks on artificial intelligence before the 27th Annual Symposium on Building the Financial System of the 21st Century Bowman is not as dovish as some of her FOMC colleagues, having dissented at

Eurostoxx +0.6%Germany DAX +0.6%France CAC 40 +0.5%UK FTSE +0.6%Spain IBEX +0.4%Italy FTSE MIB +0.6% Overall, it has been a more sluggish week for European stocks but they’re looking to salvage things at least in the last two days. Major indices are sitting higher, helped by bids into value and small caps stocks in the US

The People’s Bank of China set the onshore yuan (CNY) reference rate for the trading session ahead. USD/CNY is the onshore yuan. Its permitted to trade plus or minus 2% from this daily reference rate.CNH is the offshore yuan. USD /CNH has no restrictions on its trading range.A significantly stronger or weaker rate than expected

Novak had graduated from being Russia’s energy minister to deputy prime minister but he is still very much involved with OPEC+ matters. In the meeting today, he basically just reaffirmed the partnership between Russia and OPEC. Adding that: “Russia will continue to be a key player in the oil market, maintaining its status as a

German DAX futures +0.2%French CAC 40 futures +0.1%UK FTSE futures +0.4% This follows the more positive glow yesterday, with US stocks also carried by value and small caps. Tech shares are the ones seen more sluggish, failing to convince after Nvidia’s earnings on Wednesday. S&P 500 futures are also seen flat now with Nasdaq futures

This continues the technical predicament from last week: EUR/USD feels the inevitable pull towards 1.0500 next The drop yesterday was a notable one as we finally see EUR/USD crack below the 1.0500 mark. It has been a key technical support level to the downside, stretching all the way back to last year. In October 2023,

Capitalize, one of the leading proprietary trading firms, has announced their “One-Step Evaluation” program that allows easier access to trading opportunities than ever before. As part of this user-friendly process, traders can showcase their talent and get funding in just one single-stage evaluation, unlike their competitors’ lengthy and multilevel examination processes. By lowering or removing

Prior 49.2Manufacturing PMI 43.2 vs 44.5 expectedPrior 44.5Composite PMI 44.8 vs 48.3 expectedPrior 48.1 We all knew that the boost in August was largely a one-off due to the Olympics but since then, it’s been a stark decline for French business activity as a whole. The services sector is seen slumping hard in November with

The euro is sliding in European morning trade as poor PMI data from France and Germany is weighing on the mood in the single currency. The ECB has already highlighted their shift in focus towards the economy and the data today vindicates that. And if anything, it might just add to the case for them

Zircuit, the chain where innovation meets security, today announced its ZRC Token Launch on Monday, November 25th—a key step in building a thriving, decentralized ecosystem. ZRC serves as the foundation of Zircuit’s architecture, enabling participants to receive additional rewards, participate in network app fair launches, and drive its growth. As the ecosystem’s cornerstone, ZRC aligns

Equities have now taken a turn lower on the session with European indices seeing red for the most part now. The DAX is now down 0.5% and CAC 40 down 0.8% after the more positive start to the day here. Meanwhile, US futures have also dipped lower with S&P 500 futures down 0.4% on the

Money market pricing is now seeing roughly 35% odds of a 50 bps rate cut by the ECB for their December meeting. That is up from less than 20% before the French and German PMI data. Meanwhile, €STR futures are now implying a ~44% probability of a 50 bps rate cut. For some context, the

Fundamental Overview Overall, we’ve seen a rangebound price action in the US Dollar this week as the market awaits new catalysts to push into either direction. The market’s pricing remains mostly unchanged at three rate cuts by the end of 2025 for the Fed. Yesterday, we saw some strong bids in the greenback late in

The price of bitcoin is stretching to a new high of $98,508 – less than $1500 from the “BITCOIN 100K” hats and t-shirts from coming out . The price moved above $90,000 for the first time back on November 12 (10 days ago). That sounds amazing, but it only took two days for the price

Fundamental Overview Overall, we’ve seen a rangebound price action in the US Dollar this week as the market’s pricing remained largely unchanged at three rate cuts by the end of 2025 for the Fed. This morning, we saw some strong bids in the greenback due to the weak Eurozone PMIs as the flows there spilled

Flash PMI from Japan – manufacturing November 2024 Jibun Bank / S&P Global In summary from the report: Contraction Continues: Japanese private sector activity contracted for the second month in November, though the decline was less pronounced than in October (49.6).Services vs. Manufacturing: Service providers saw slight activity growth, while manufacturing output fell sharply, marking

more to come This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

The dollar held a bit more of a mixed mood since trading yesterday with EUR/USD falling to its lowest levels since October 2023, breaking below 1.0500, but USD/JPY eased further as it dipped back under the 155.00 mark. It is making for a trickier end to the week with broader markets also rallying for the

A Reuters poll is showing: RBNZ is to cut cash rate to 4.25% on November 27. The current rate is at 4.75%. 27 of 30 economists look for the 50 basis point cut. In 2025 the median forecast is for the central bank to cut rates by total of 100 basis points The NZD/USD pair

The price of crude oil is settling up $1.35 or 1.96% and $70.10. The high price today reached $70.38 while the low price was at $68.86. Geopolitical Tensions: Russia and Ukraine war remains a geopolitical risk for oil traders. Russia allegedly launched an intercontinental missile at Ukraine’s Dnipro following Ukraine’s first attack on Russian territory

Australia Judo Bank / S&P Global data. Mixed bag, up for manufacturing (6 month-high) and down for services (10 month-low). Overall negative though with all three in contraction (with the caveat that these are preliminary readings only). From the report, in brief: Lowest PMI Since January: November’s S&P Global Flash Australia PMI hit its lowest

A trade official in Singapore with the comments: Global economic uncertainties have increased, including over policies of the incoming U.S. administration.Singapore electronics cluster projected to continue to expand, supported by strong global semiconductor demand.Trade tariffs could renew inflationary pressures, which could disrupt the pace of monetary easing.Not ruling out that GDP growth could exceed 3.5%

The moves aren’t large, but just noting some USD strength coming in. Earlier in the session NZD/USD dropped but AUD remained little changed on the back of AUD/NZD buying. Not any more. AUD/USD is making session lows now below 0.6490. There is no fresh news. USD/JPY has made back all its earlier losses, around 154.55

The supposed correction/pullback in gold sure didn’t last long. Dip buyers look to have managed to pass their first test with flying colours. Last week, gold was still in danger as it ran down to test its 100-day moving average (red line). But that proved to be where buyers draw the line, with the precious

Prior -0.1% Upon the revision, the German economy is seen just growing marginally in Q3. That was still better than the first estimations of a possible technical recession. But the storm clouds are definitely brewing going into next year, not least with Trump tariffs looming large just over the horizon. This article was written by

The Reserve Bank of New Zealand embarked on its rate cutting cycle in August: August: The RBNZ reduced the Official Cash Rate (OCR) by 25 basis points, bringing it down to 5.25%. This marked the first rate cut since March 2020, signaling a shift from the previous tightening stance. October 2024: In response to a

People’s Bank of China official says: We will prevent the formation of one-sided expectations on the yuanWill keep the yuan basically stable at a reasonable and balanced level Yuan dropping against the surging US dollar: This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

Citadel founder Griffin spoke in an interview with Bloomberg Television at the Economic Club of New York: In brief: have to put the fiscal house in order, warns on growth of national debtUS doesn’t have room for tax cuts, “There’s a real question about where do we need to raise taxes to start to put

Updating USD/JPY after the inflation data: Japan October headline CPI +2.3% (expected +2.2%, prior 2.5%) All three measures were above the bojj2% target, which keeps a December rate hike from the Bank on the simmer. Also yen supportive was: Japan PM Ishiba says stimulus package will be around 39 trln yen This article was written

Prepare Portfolios for Lower Rates, AI Boom, and Select Opportunities UBS is advising investors to align their strategies with expectations of falling interest rates, emerging investment opportunities in AI, and promising sectors such as real estate and resources. Rate Cuts on the Horizon UBS predicts major central banks will lower interest rates as inflation normalizes

Another packed agenda of European Central Bank speakers today. Times below are in GMT/US Eastern time format. Lagarde, Nagel and Schnabel the big hitters out of this lot. 0800/0300 Speech by ECB President Christine Lagarde, Bundesbank Chief Joachim Nagel and French Central Bank Governor Francois Villeroy de Galhau at the Frankfurt European Banking Congress0830/0330 Keynote

Survey on what to expect from the Bank of Japan conducted by Reuters In summary: Rate Hike Expected in December: 56% of economists expect the Bank of Japan (BOJ) to raise interest rates at its December meeting, driven by yen depreciation and improving economic conditions. Rate Projections: 90% of economists predict the BOJ will raise

People’s Bank of China USD/CNY reference rate is due around 0115 GMT. The People’s Bank of China (PBOC), China’s central bank, is responsible for setting the daily midpoint of the yuan (also known as renminbi or RMB). The PBOC follows a managed floating exchange rate system that allows the value of the yuan to fluctuate

Republican Senator Cynthia Lummis of Wyoming spoke with CNBC: “The proposal that I have and that President Trump has discussed [is] about a strategic bitcoin reserve” “This is the gold standard digital asset, and a strategic bitcoin reserve is the way to embed it””We have reserves at our 12 Federal Reserve banks, including gold certificates

Westpac revised their first cut forecast to May from February: Westpac revise its RBA forecast – see later but faster interest rate cuts Of Australia’s four biggest banks, National Australia Bank (NAB) are also tipping May. CBA and ANZ are both cautiously tipping a February rate cut from the Reserve Bank of Australia. The RBA

The US Securities and Exchange Commission announced on Thursday that its Chair, Gary Gensler, will step down from the Commission effective at 12:00 pm on January 20, 2025. More here. Gensler’s views on cryptocurrency regulation differ sharply from Trump’s. Trump was always going to fire him. Gensler with the : This article was written by

US stocks close higher on the dayReuters poll: RBNZ to cut cash rate to 4.25% on November 27Crude oil settles at $70.10Is today the day for Bitcoin 100K? Just $1500 away nowMore from Goolsbee: Feels like we are heading to 2% inflationMatt Gaetz withdraws name for Attorney General nominationFed’s Goolsbee: It may make sense to

Good morning, afternoon and evening all. Any charts, technical analysis, trade ideas, thoughts, views, ForexLive traders would like to share and discuss with fellow ForexLive traders, please do so: This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

The Bank of Japan next meet on December 18-19. Today’s CPI data from Japan is the final national reading ahead of that meeting. Bank of Japan Governor Ueda spoke yesterday, he didn’t give too much away on the ‘hike or no hike’ question at that meetings: BOJ governor Ueda: We don’t make comments on short-term

The USD/JPY pair moved lower during the morning U.S. session but found support at the rising 100-bar moving average on the 4-hour chart (see lower blue line on the chart above), where sellers turned into buyers, driving the price higher. Current Movement: The price is now testing the falling 100-hour moving average at 154.73.The 200-hour

Feel like we’re headed to 2% inflation.Neutral is a long way below where rates are now Fed relies on economic data that is forward-looking like inflation expectations, but will not speculate on effect of policies that are predicted but not in place Goolsbee is a dove. This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

Reuters with the info. Chinese government advisers recommend a 2025 economic growth target of around 5%, despite challenges from U.S. tariff hikes and slowing global demand. Some advisers suggest lower targets of “above 4%” or a 4.5%-5% range.Maintaining a lofty target aligns with President Xi Jinping’s vision of doubling China’s economy by 2035. Advisers advocate

BOE Mann (hawk) says: BOE should hold rates longer to evaluate processesCan make larger changes when justified by evidenceWaiting for changing underlying inflation dynamics.I’m still saying a tremendous amount of persistence.100 basis points of cuts to aggressive for me This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

It make sense for the Fed to slow the pace of interest rate cuts as central bank gets close to where rates will settleOver the next year, it feels like rates will end up a fair bit lower than where they are todayInflation is on its way down to 2%. Labor market is close to

Good morning, afternoon and evening all. Any charts, technical analysis, trade ideas, thoughts, views, ForexLive traders would like to share and discuss with fellow ForexLive traders, please do so: This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

Major European indices are closing higher on the day. The gains are led by the German DAX which rose by 0.75% and snapped a four day losing streak. A snapshot of the closing levels shows: German DAX, +142.67 points or 0.75% at 19147.46France’s CAC, +14.87 points or 0.21% at 7213.33.UK’s FTSE 100 +64.20 point toward

The NZDUSD fell sharply last week and in the process fell below a key support area between 0.5848 and 0.5859. That break failed and the price except back higher. In trading on Monday, the price fell back below that swing area for the second time, and for the second time the break failed. This time,

Fundamental Overview The US Dollar continues to consolidate despite the higher-than-expected inflation figures and a less dovish Powell last week. The market’s pricing remained largely unchanged at three rate cuts by the end of 2025. This is generally a signal that the market is fine with the current pricing, and we would need stronger reasons

The EURUSD is breaking lower, and in the process has moved to a new 2024 low. The old low from last week at 1.04956 has been broken and now is close risk for short-term traders looking for more downside momentum. Stay below is more bearish. The low price has reached 1.0474 so far. The next

Following its global unveiling on the main stage of Binance’s Blockchain Week conference in Dubai, AI platform bitGPT is experiencing sizable growth across every vertical of the project, from active partnership conversations to the number of users currently testing its technology. bitGPT’s X and Telegram communities grew in size by more than 1,000% in the

🌟 Technology Sector: Nvidia’s Rise Steals the Spotlight The semiconductor sector is experiencing a robust recovery, led by a significant surge in Nvidia (NVDA), which is up 3.36%. This upward trend highlights renewed investor confidence in the tech industry, potentially driven by positive earnings or innovation news. Other semiconductor players, including AMD (+1.10%) and MU

The USDCAD is moving lower and in the process has broken below a cluster of technical levels including: Upward sloping trendline on the hourly char at 1.3958.100 bar moving average on the 4-hour chart at 1.39506The low of a swing area down to 1.3945. The downside targets come in at 1.3925, a swing area at

The Wall Street Journal (gated) with the report. Probably most interesting, for China, are moves to diversify supply chains away from the country: American businesses are dusting off a playbook they used during Trump’s first term: stocking up on imported goods before tariffs are enactedalso considering how to cope with the levies if and when

Trade tariffs likely to provoke a responseAnd a 25 bps rate cut in December is the right responseWe should cut every meeting until rates reach 2%The neutral rate on average is about 2%It’s too soon to say if ECB needs to go below neutral This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

Arcana Network is thrilled to announce the launch of the Arcana Wallet Beta, now available on the Chrome Store, setting a new standard in blockchain accessibility and user experience through its pioneering Chain Abstraction Protocol. Built as the first Externally Owned Account (EOA) wallet to leverage Chain Abstraction, Arcana Wallet enables a frictionless, multi-chain experience

The GMT DAO, an independent community organization of GMT holders, is excited to announce the launch of the GMT Burn Initiative—an event designed to place the future of GMT firmly in the hands of its community. Through this initiative, GMT holders will vote on the decision to burn up to 600 million GMT, equivalent to

The major US stock indices opened higher, but are now trading lower as the sellers entered from the bell. The NASDAQ index opened higher by about 90 points but has since found sellers and trades down on the day. HMMMM Shares of Nvidia and Snowflake are trading higher after announcing earnings after the close. Nvidia

Nvidia, the world’s largest publicly traded company by market capitalisation, reported its Q3 earnings after the market close on Wednesday. The company posted impressive growth, surpassing expectations for both sales and earnings while also offering better-than-expected guidance for the current quarter. However, some investors weren’t particularly happy with the report, leading to a dip in

ECBs Holzmann is speaking and says: Warnings of undershooting 2% are not warrantedPolicy need to say restrictive amid price risks.In December, a cut is most likely outcome but is not certain. There have been recent comments suggesting fears that inflation might be lower than expectations and move below the 2% target. Holzmann fights back. The

OPEC+ is scheduled to meet on December 1. Reuters (out overnight) cite unnamed sources for info: It may push back output increases when it meets on Dec. 1 due to weak global oil demandaccording to three OPEC+ sources familiar with the discussionsMinisters last shelved the increase for a month when they met virtually on Nov.

There are a couple to take note of on the day, as highlighted in bold. The first ones are for EUR/USD at the 1.0500 and 1.0515 levels. And alongside key technical resistance on the weekly chart at the 1.0500 mark itself, that should provide a floor for price action in the session ahead. Keep in

If inflation stays above target, have to be careful when going about reducing ratesBut if unemployment accelerates, it makes the case to be more forward-leaningUpcoming decisions will depend on the dataThe economy right now is “quite prosperous”Recent policy moves can be described as a “recalibration”Questions on the pace of further reductions would be more relevant

There is a shift out of the different major indices today. The Dow industrial average and the Russell 2000 are both trading higher. The rotor S&P and NASDAQ index are trading lower with the NASDAQ index now down over -1.0% leading the way to the downside. A snapshot of the market currently shows: Dow industrial

US initial jobless claims came in stronger than expectations, but continuing claims were higher. The Philadelphia Fed business index fell more than expected of -5.5 versus 8.0 estimate. Yields in the US have moved modestly lower with the two year now down -0.8 basis points and the tenure down -1.6 basis points. In the premarket

Prior week 217K (revised to 219K)Initial jobless claims 213K vs 220K estimate4-week moving average initial jobless claims 217K vs 221K priorContinuing Claims 1.908M vs 1.873M estimatePrior week of continuing claims 1.873M (revised to 1.872M)4-week moving average of continueing claims 1.879M vs 1.874M prior The largest increases in initial claims for the week ending November 9

Fundamental Overview Crude oil remains confined in a range between the 72.00 resistance and the 67.00 support as the market continues to weigh the future scenarios. On one hand, we have the Trump’s victory which might be seen as bearish due to increased supply and for fear of the tariffs and a slowdown in global

Prior 10.3Fed Business index -5.5 vs 8.0 estimate6 month index 56.6 versus 36.7 last monthCapital expenditures 24.9 versus 23.5 last monthemployment 8.6 versus -2.2 last month.Prices paid 26.6 versus 29.7 last month.New orders 8.9 versus 14.2 last month This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

Prior month -0.3% revised from -0.5%Leading index -0.4% vs -0.3% estimate. One day the leading index will foreshadow a recession or negative growth. This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

Prior month Year on year -1.0%PPI MoM 1.2% versus -0.8% last month. The gain comes after 2-months of declines. The rise was the largest since April 2024. PPI YoY 1.1% versus -1.0% last monthRaw material price MoM was 3.8% versus -3.2% last monthRaw material prices YoY -2.8% versus -8.8% last month Details for IPPI: The

Nvidia will announce its earnings after the close today. Sharea are lower today with the price trading down about -$3.00 or -2.10%. at $144.00. The all-time high closing level is at $148.88. What are the expectations? Earnings Expectations Adjusted quarterly earnings: $0.74 per share versus $0.40 last year (85% YoY increase) Revenue: $33.2 billion versus

Prior month 3.84M annualized rate revised to 3.83MExisting home sales percentage change +3.4% versus -1.3% last month (revisor -1.0%Up 2.9% from October last year30 year mortgage 7.05% which is up from 6% at September lowsInventories 4.2 months which is still low. That is down from 4.3% last month, but up from 3.6 months a year

S&P 500 futures are now up 0.2% while Nasdaq futures have pared earlier losses to be up 0.1%. Meanwhile, Dow futures are seen up 0.3% on the day currently. In Asia and large periods of European morning trade, investors remained cautious after Nvidia’s earnings release overnight. The revenue figures were a beat but other details

IC Markets Global is proud to announce the renewal of its partnership with World Table Tennis (WTT), reaffirming its role as the Official CFD Trading Partner for the 2024-2025 season. This collaboration underscores shared values of precision, speed, and excellence, further strengthening the bond between one of the world’s largest CFD brokers and the global

Fundamental Overview The US Dollar continues to consolidate despite the higher-than-expected inflation figures and a less dovish Powell last week. The market’s pricing remained largely unchanged at three rate cuts by the end of 2025. This is generally a signal that the market is fine with the current pricing, and we would need stronger reasons

German DAX futures +0.5%UK FTSE futures +0.4% This comes after the Dow posted gains yesterday while tech shares were more cautious. And the latter are still keeping that way after Nvidia’s earnings release after the close overnight. The chip giant saw record high revenue amid strong AI demand but their guidance underwhelmed expectations. And that’s

AIntivirus, a global initiative aimed at combating systemic corruption and promoting transparency, launches with a message rooted in the enduring legacy of John McAfee. The project, inspired by McAfee’s outspoken stance on accountability and digital security, seeks to create a more equitable and secure digital environment. A Legacy Rekindled John McAfee, a polarizing figure renowned

Federal Reserve speakers Thursday include Hammack, Goolsbee, BarrICYMI – OPEC+ could further extend voluntary cuts at its December meetingChinese government advisers call for steady 5% 2025 economic growth goal, strongr stimulusThere are at least 10 European Central Bank officials speaking on ThursdayU.S. Department of Justice asks judge to force Google to sell off Chrome internet

As the North American session begins, the dollar is mixed. The USDJPY is lower (lower USD) by about 0.60% and is the biggest mover on the day. The EURUSD is also lower (higher USD) after a try higher stalled ahead of 100-hour MA resistance target. The GBPUSD is also lower (higher USD). The DXY dollar

DegenLayer, a newly launched memecoin focused blockchain & trading terminal app suite, has announced its testnet release, marking a key step toward its upcoming mainnet launch. The platform aims to facilitate zero setup memecoin trading and creation, leveraging the $20 billion liquidity within the Optimism Superchain ecosystem. The project’s developers project daily revenues of $1

Below you’ll find who is on the schedule. Times are GMT/US Eastern time format. Apart from these 10 be wary of a few popping up unannounced in various media interviews and what have you. 0525/0025 Bank of France Governor Francois Villeroy de Galhau speaks at Paris Europlus Financial Forum 2024 in Tokyo0830/0330 Welcome remarks by

Headlines: USD/JPY sticks with the push and pull mood on the weekUS futures pare losses ahead of the open laterGold Technical Analysis – New highs as rate cuts repricing pausesFed’s Barkin says does not want to prejudge December meetingFed’s Williams: The disinflationary process will continueECB’s Stournaras vouches for a 25 bps rate cut in DecemberECB’s

Adj. EPS 0.81 (expected 0.75) Revenue 35.08bn (exp 33.12bn) Adj. gross margin 75% (expected 75%) Adj. operating expenses 3.05bln (expected 2.99bn) Adj. operating income 23.28bn (expected 21.9bn) Data centre revenue $30.8bn vs (expected $29bn) Q4 Revenue Guidance $37.5bn (expected $37bn) Q4 adj gross margin 73 to 74% (expected 73.5%) /*/*- —- For previous results, expectations

Eurostoxx flatGermany DAX +0.2%France CAC 40 -0.1%UK FTSE +0.3%Spain IBEX +0.2%Italy FTSE MIB -0.2% The overall market mood is rather tentative now with US futures also sitting marginally lower. S&P 500 futures are down 0.2% with Nasdaq futures down 0.4% but that owes more to tech sentiment feeling more sluggish after Nvidia’s earnings release. The

This is but another sign that perhaps things are starting to change in Japan with the BOJ looking to hold interest rates at a higher level amid their recent policy shift. Nippon Life Insurance is now reportedly set to raise the expected interest rates for its annuities and whole life insurance for the first time

People’s Bank of China USD/CNY reference rate is due around 0115 GMT. The People’s Bank of China (PBOC), China’s central bank, is responsible for setting the daily midpoint of the yuan (also known as renminbi or RMB). The PBOC follows a managed floating exchange rate system that allows the value of the yuan to fluctuate

U.S. authorities allege Chairman Gautam Adani and seven others paid $265 million in bribes to Indian government officials. Adani Group has not commented on the allegations as yet. The price of Adani dollar bonds fell in early Asia trade. Reuters reports Adani Ports and Special Economic Zone: Bonds maturing in August 2027 fell over five

The missile was reportedly fired from Astrakhan and targeted critical infrastructure in the central Ukrainian city of Dnipro. The city was also hit by other strikes involving several cruise missiles and a medium range ballistic missile. Going back to the ICBM, it would be the first that such a long range weapon has been used

Fed’s Bowman adds: It’s concerning we are recalibrating policy without reaching inflation goalsFed needs to be flexibleEven when we bring inflation down, prices are still more expensive.We need to be patient and cautious about what immigration policy approach may actually be.US needs policies that will facilitate people to be able to work across the country.

Approach to rate cuts must be gradualBut if December projections confirm baseline scenario, there will be room to cut rates This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

The USDJPY, GBPUSD and the USDCHF have each seen up and down action today. For the USDJPY and GBPUSD, the price action traded above and below the 100 hour MA. Both also used that MA as either support (for the USDJPY) or resistance (for the GBPUSD). That helps to increase the MAs importance going forward

Labour market is now in balance, not providing upward pressure on inflationWants to see inflation coming down to 2% and staying around that level amid solid labour marketDon’t see any signs of a recession in the dataIt is pretty clear that monetary policy is restrictive todayThat is why it is “very appropriate” to cut rates

The price action in the pair has been rather up and down on the week, with levels now returning back to the weekly pivot around 154.21. Earlier in the day, USD/JPY was trading around 155.15 in the handover from Asia to Europe. So, we’re roughly 100 pips down from there currently. There’s no real catalyst

UK industrial orders improved slightly on the month but remains weak overall, with output in the last three months slumping further to a -12 reading – down from -6 in the three months to October. But at least output expectations are seen improving, with the index up to 9 on the month, compared to -1

Reports out of New Zealand today that New Zealand Treasury plans to revise economic and fiscal forecasts due to a sustained slowdown in productivity. In brief: Economic recovery, previously expected in late 2024, is now anticipated to begin later, according to Chief Economic Adviser Dominick Stephens.Slower economic growth is reducing tax revenue, increasing challenges for

US politics website POLITICO with the report. Trump plans to revive the Keystone XL oil pipeline on his first day back in the White House. The yoyo ride so far: The Keystone XL pipeline’s U.S.-Canada border permit was rejected by President Obama in 2015, approved by Trump in 2017, and revoked by Biden (the most-bullish

Fundamental Overview Gold continues to make new highs as the correction from the repricing of the rate cuts ended last week. In fact, if you recall, despite the higher-than-expected inflation figures and a less dovish Powell, the market’s pricing remained largely unchanged at three rate cuts by the end of 2025. This is generally a

Financial industry to undergo even more transformation with the recent rise of generative AIA regulatory and supervisory framework that adapts to technological advancements is essentialNeed to build on insights gained from exports to fully benefit from new technologyBut technological advancements bring new risks to financial stabilityAs financial services grow more diverse and complex, the channels

There is still a month to go until the next policy meeting, there will be more information available by thenWe decide monetary policy meeting by meeting on the basis of information that becomes available up to the meeting itselfNeed to take into account FX movements in forming our economic and inflation outlook, including what’s causing

Taiwan’s economy minister says that TSMC is expected to construct one new fabrication facility annually in Taiwan over the next decade. added that Taiwan needed to ensure adequate power and water resources to support these facilities, Also, said that TSMC’s fabs in Kaohsiung, southern Taiwan, are “ready to go” likely indicating that the necessary power

Today we have another empty European session in terms of data releases. In the American session, we get the latest US Jobless Claims figures and the Philly Fed Manufacturing PMI. We will also hear from many central bank speakers throughout the day. 13:30 GMT/08:30 ET – US Jobless Claims The US Jobless Claims continues to

BOJ Governor Kazuo Ueda due to speak at the Paris EUROPLACE Tokyo International Financial Forum, in Tokyo. I haven’t been able to dig up anything on this. Ueda spoke earlier this week: Bank of Japan Governor Ueda says economy recovering moderately, some weak signsUSD/JPY volatile on Bank of Japan Governor Ueda speechBank Japan Gov Ueda

Victory against inflation is in sight in EuropeInflation could be sustainably at 2% in early 2025Trump tariffs not expected to significantly alter inflation outlook in EuropeShould continue to reduce degree of monetary policy restrictionPace of reduction must be determined by agile pragmatismWe must maintain full optionality for upcoming meetings It is interesting to see Villeroy

Federal Reserve Bank of Boston President Susan Collins with more: Balance sheet policy most useful in unusual conditionsToo soon for Fed to factor in impact of election on its work … “I don’t actually try to get out ahead” of the election and how it may have changed the landscape, adding “when we have details

Rate cuts by year-end Fed: 14 bps (55% probability of rate cut at the upcoming meeting) 2025: 74 bps ECB: 31 bps (74% probability of 25 bps rate cut at the upcoming meeting) 2025: 137 bps BoE: 4 bps (85% probability of no change at the upcoming meeting) 2025: 66 bps BoC: 29 bps (85%

The People’s Bank of China set the onshore yuan (CNY) reference rate for the trading session ahead. USD/CNY is the onshore yuan. Its permitted to trade plus or minus 2% from this daily reference rate.CNH is the offshore yuan. USD /CNH has no restrictions on its trading range.A significantly stronger or weaker rate than expected

Deutsche Bank analysts are careful of a ‘significant correction’ for US equities. Turning points can happen quickly When valuations are stretched to start with, there can be limited scope for further gains Examples of high returns through history have often been followed by sizeable reversals DB note that the CAPE ratio for the S&P 500

Catching up on this from Bank of America Securites. Analysts there are bullish on the US economy, seeing resilience, added signs of growth in productivity: thus see higher economic growthsee high-for-longer interest rates, forecast a higher Fed terminal rate at 4%. BoA are wary of uncertainty around the incoming Trump administration. The analysts assess that

Prior 97Services confidencePrior 101Manufacturing confidencePrior 92 This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

UBS analysts continue to highlight gold and oil as strategic hedges against the prevailing macroeconomic and geopolitical environment, forecasting notable price increases for both commodities in the coming years. The bank projects gold prices to reach $2,900 per ounce by September 2025, driven by a confluence of factors, including expectations of lower interest rates, uncertainty

The heads up on this yesterday: More on US DoJ to ask judge to force Google to sell off Chrome Happening now, Headlines via Reuters citing court filings The U.S. Justice Department proposes remedies in Google search monopoly case.DOJ asks judge to make Google divest Chrome browser.Google should not be allowed to reenter browser market

1345/0845 Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland President Beth Hammack gives welcome remarks before the 2024 Financial Stability Conference: Emerging Risks in a Time of Interconnectedness and Innovation, hosted by the Cleveland Fed and the Office of Financial Research 1725/1225 Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago President Austan Goolsbee participates in moderated question-and-answer session before the Central

Nvidia shares responded to Q3 results with a drop. There are more narratives surrounding the small share price drop than grains of sand on a beach. Forexample: slight decline sequentially on gross margins revenue forecast failed to meet the highest expectationsguidance not as good as it coulda been Whatever. BTFD has served well, remember that.

South Korean trade data for the first 20 days of the month is encouraging for exports: +5.8% y/y vs. a -0.2% for October (full month) Not so much for imports: -1.0% y/y Morgan Stanely noted risks for SK from the new incoming US admin: “Supply chains would face significant rewiring pressures, and the disruption faced

1400 GMT/0900 US Eastern time: Bank of England Monetary Policy Member Catherine Mann fireside chat with private investment firm Brown Brothers Harriman Mann has spoken recently: BoE’s Mann: Forward-looking indicators raising the risk of inflation persistenceBOE’s Mann: I describe myself as an ‘activist’ rather than a ‘gradualist’ on ratesBOE’s Mann: Inflation has definitely not been

Reuters published its Fed survey overnight. In summary from the report: December Rate Cut Likely: Nearly 90% of economists (94 out of 106) expect a 25bps cut in December, bringing the fed funds rate to 4.25%-4.50%.Market pricing shows less than a 60% chance of a December cut, reflecting uncertainty. 2025 Rate Cuts to be Shallower:

1730 GMT/1230 US Eastern time: Speech by member of the board of the Swiss National Bank Petra Tschudin and Thomas Moser, “The Swiss Repo Market: 25 Years of Success for the Financial Centre and the National Bank”, Money Market Event Petra Tschudin is the a member of the Governing Board of the Swiss National Bank

Westpac were forecasting a February 2025 rate cut but have pushed that out to May 2025. In brief: We have revised our view of the most likely scenario for the path of the RBA’s cash rate, pushing out the start date of the rate-cutting cycle from February to May. Similar to the pattern in some

That’s around 141bn USD. Earlier this week Japanese Economic Revitalisation Minister Akazawa empasized that its crucial the p[package contains measures to boost wages. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

The US treasury will sell… well auction…. $16 billion of 20 year bonds at the top of the hour. The six-month averages of the major components shows: Bid to cover 2.60XTail 0.1 bpsDirects (domestic demand): 17.2%Indirects (international demand): 71.6%Dealers: 11.2% This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

Crude oil futures are settling at $68.87. That is down $0.52 or -0.75%. The weekly EIA inventory data today showed: Crude oil inventories build of 0.545Mvs build 0.138M estimate. Prior week +2.089 millionGasoline inventories build of 2.054M vs build 0.859M estimate. Prior week -4.407MDistillate inventories drawdown of -0.114M vs drawdown -0.020M estimate. Prior week -1.394MCushing

ECBs Stournaras is speaking and says: ECB policy has tamed inflationSees inflation converted to 2% by start of 2025ECB may increasingly need to avoid inflation undershootRates will stay restrictive for some timeDownside risks to Eurozone growth remain This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

Fed’s Collins looks to be on the fence re a December interest rate cutLate day rally pushes Dow and S&P up. Nasdaq lower but well off lowsECBs Stournaras: ECB policy has tamed inflationCrude oil futures settled at $68.87US treasury sells $16 million of 20 year bond the high yield of 4.680%More from Bowman:It’s concerning we’re

The calendar has Bank of Japan Governor Ueda speaking at 0510 GMT, which is 0010 US Eastern time. Ueda spoke earlier this week … nothing could stop him! Bank of Japan Governor Ueda says economy recovering moderately, some weak signsUSD/JPY volatile on Bank of Japan Governor Ueda speechBank Japan Gov Ueda – Driver of Japan’s

Nasdaq launched options trading for BlackRock’s iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT) on Tuesday. MarketWatch (gated) with the rundown, in brief: First-day trading included: 70 million call options expiring in 2026 at a $100 strike price (equivalent to a $174,000 bitcoin price … n IBIT price at $100 corresponds to a bitcoin price of roughly $174,000). 30

Federal Reserve Bank of Boston President Susan Collins: Some additional rate cuts needed as policy still restrictive.Doesn’t want to cut rates too quickly.Overly slow rate cuts could hurt labor market.Final destination of rate cuts is unclear.Monetary policy well positioned for economic outlook.Monetary policy not on a preset course.Fed policy decisions to be done meeting-by-meeting.Any further

Buying into the US close, sent the Dow industrial average into positive territory. The S&P index is closing unchanged. The NASDAQ index is still closing down on the day but well off its lows. At session lows the NASDAQ was down -263.08 points andIs closing the day down only 28 points. A snapshot of the

US treasury sell $16 billion of 20 bonds a high yield of 4.68%: High yield 4.68% WI level at the time of the auction 4.65%.Tail 3.0 basis points versus the six-month averages 0.1 basis pointsDirects (domestic buyers) 7.9% versus six with average of 17.2%Indirects 69.5% versus six-month average of 71.6%Dealers 22.6% vs six with average

CIO of Hayman Capital Management Kyle Bass on what he sees as the implication of China cutting internet cables. Referring to this from earlier: ICYMI – Chinese vessel spotted where Baltic Sea cables were severed This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

Sui, the Layer 1 blockchain offering industry-leading performance and infinite horizontal scaling, and First Digital Labs, the creator of one of the world’s largest stablecoins, FDUSD, today announced that FDUSD is live on Sui. FDUSD is the second multi-billion dollar market cap stablecoin to natively integrate with Sui in recent months, strengthening FDUSD’s position as

Today, the only highlight was the UK CPI report which came in higher than expected. That will likely see the probabilities for a cut in December evaporate almost completely although it shouldn’t change much in the bigger picture. Overall, the markets continue to consolidate waiting for new catalysts. Unfortunately, this week is pretty empty in

The EURUSD moved to a new high for the week in the early trading hours from the Asian Pacific market, but found willing sellers against topside resistance near 1.06097. That was the high of a swing area between 1.06005 and 1.06097. The price also stayed below its falling 200-hour moving average. That moving average is

Eurostoxx +0.5%Germany DAX +0.6%France CAC 40 +0.5%UK FTSE flatSpain IBEX +0.5%Italy FTSE MIB +0.5% This comes with US futures also in a better mood. S&P 500 futures are seen up 0.2% currently. For equities though, the overall mood now largely rests on Nvidia’s shoulders. The chip giant will be reporting earnings after the close today,

Fed’s Michelle Bowman is speaking and says: U.S. Central Bank should pursue a cautious approach on monetary policy.Fed may be closer to neutral policy than policymakers currently think; inflation remains a concern.Her estimate of neutral policy rate is much higher than before COVID pandemic.Says she agreed to support November Fed rate cut as it aligns

China 2024 GDP growth seen at 4.8%, 2025 GDP growth seen at 4.5% (unchanged from Oct poll)Trump expected to impose 38% tariffs on Chinese goods early next yearProposed tariffs may cut China’s 2025 GDP growth by around 0.5% to 0.9%China likely to roll out more stimulus measures to counter Trump tariffs On the final point,

Fed’s Cook is speaking on the economy and monetary policy and says: If labor market and inflation evolve as expected, would be appropriate to continue lowering policy rate towards neutral.If inflation progress slows with job market still solid, could see a scenario for pausing.Totality of data suggests disinflation still underway with labor market gradually cooling.Cuts

The US Chips Act was a bipartisan supported legislation designed to incentivize the building of chip manufacturing in the US. TSMC and Intel have been some of the key beneficiaries and as such each are building new facilities for manufacturing. The awarding of $1.5 billion to global foundry’s seems to be part of that chips

Fundamental Overview Last week, we got a pullback in the Nasdaq as the higher-than-expected inflation readings and a less dovish Powell weighed a bit on the market. Despite the recent events though, the market’s pricing remained largely unchanged at three rate cuts by the end of 2025. This might be a signal that the market

The weekly EIA inventory data shows: Crude oil inventories build of 0.545Mvs build 0.138M estimate. Prior week +2.089 millionGasoline inventories build of 2.054M vs build 0.859M estimate. Prior week -4.407MDistillate inventories drawdown of -0.114M vs drawdown -0.020M estimate. Prior week -1.394MCushing inventories drawdown of -0.140M vs. drawdown -0.688M last week. The private inventory data released

More from Fed Gov. Cook: This moment could be incredibly important if productivity has shifted higher.Productivity is such a long run, stable trend, that exceeding it is very hard to do.Possible even that the US is underestimating the productivity gains from AI. This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

More from BOE’s Ramsden: October CPI data only marginally above BOE’s forecastA very small miss. on one months inflation forecast doesn’t change my assessment of the outlook This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

Reuters with this interesting piece: Britain’s official labour market statistics may be failing to count almost 1 million people who are in workmight also be overestimating the number of workers who have dropped out of the jobs marketthink tank data closely tracked official employment numbers until 2020. Since then it has diverged sharply. Poor data

This is via the folks at eFX. ** Synopsis: Barclays remains optimistic on GBP, forecasting a rise in GBP/USD to 1.30 and a decline in EUR/GBP to 0.80 over the coming quarters. The outlook is supported by structural improvements, fiscal expansion, and relative resilience to tariff risks. Key Points: Structural Improvements: Closer EU-UK ties provide

As a heads up the private (API) survey released Tuesday afternoon showed a much bigger build than was exp[ected: Oil – private survey of inventory shows a large headline crude oil build vs expectations Coming up at 1030 US Eastern time (1530 GMT) is the data from the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA). The EIA

BOE’s Ramsden is speaking on the economy and says: The economy will continue to normalize, with the recent trend towards low and relatively stable inflation continuing.It is as least as likely that the disinflationary process sustains it’s recent trendThis would imply a scenario in which inflation stays closer to the 2% target throughout the first

The major European indices are closing lower. The German DAX and Italy’s FTSE MIB is on a four-day losing streak. German DAX, -0.31%France’s CAC, -0.43%UK’s FTSE 100 -0.17%Spain’s Ibex unchangedItaly’s FTSE MIB -0.29% Looking at European benchmark 10 year yields: Germany 2.345%, unchangedFrance 3.097%, +1.1 basis pointsUK 4.473%, +2.6 basis pointsSpain 3.055%, +0.3 basis pointsItaly

Fed vice chair Michael Barr is to testify Capitol Hill shortly. He is in charge of supervision on the Federal Reserve Board and as such is testimony is likely to be not on monetary policy or the economy per se more on regulation and supervision. Meanwhile stocks are moving lower with the NASDAQ index down

The NASDAQ index continues to fall. In premarket trading at the start of the US session, the index was up around 50 points. The current price is down -246 points or -1.29% at 18743.80. The low price reached 18724.39. Looking at the hourly chart, the price is approaching its 200 hour moving average at 18675.91.

Via an RBC Wealth Management note, says despite the trend higher in the US 10 year Treasury yield stocks have further upside. investors and the media focus on the implications of the US election and cabinet postingswe continue to view the trend in the US 10-year yield and US dollar as the more important macro

The major US stock indices are little changed in premarket trading. Earlier higher gains have been eroded ahead of the opening bell in around 14 minutes. Dow industrial average up 53 pointsS&P index up 0.77 pointsNASDAQ index +6.5 points Comcast is to spin off its cable networks. Shares of the company are up $0.28 or

The USDCAD moved lower over the last two trading days and in the process retested a swing area between 1.39458 and 1.39581. Support buyers leaned against that area (the 100 bar moving average of the 4-hour chart was also in that area), and has pushed the price higher in trading today. That move to the

A note from TD argues that U.S. debt levels are poised to surge, raising long-term concerns for Treasury markets. TD analysts say that the U.S. federal government’s structural deficits are projected to drive its debt-to-GDP ratio to 100% in 2024 and 122% by 2034. This steep rise translates to an estimated $22 trillion—or 85%—increase in

1130 GMT/0430 US Eastern time – Bank of Spain governor, José Luis Escriva, to speak about the economic impact of last month deadly floods in eastern region of Valencia 1300 GMT/0800 US Eastern time – Welcome address by ECB President Christine Lagarde at ECB conference on financial stability and macroprudential policy 2024 in Frankfurt, Germany

Bitcoin moved to a another new record high at $94,852. The move to the upside extended above the high price from yesterday at $94,057. That high extended above the high price going back to November 13 at $93,483. Those levels are now close support (yellow area on the chart above). Looking at the hourly chart,

Prior +1.7%Core CPI +3.3% vs +3.1% y/y expectedPrior +3.2% On the month itself, consumer prices were seen up 0.6% and core prices were seen up 0.4%. Both were seen just above estimates of 0.5% and 0.3% respectively. But the emphasis remains on core annual inflation, which came in higher than expected and also above the

Federal Reserve speeches on Wednesday from Cook, Collins, Barr, BowmanBarclays forecast GBP/USD to 1.30 and EUR/GBP to 0.80 over the coming quartersKyle Bass says China setting up for a Taiwan invasionChinese mutual fund houses cutting exchange-traded fund (ETF) feesJapan’s exports in October rebounded from a 43-month low – recapEuropean Central Bank President Lagarde speaking Wednesday

Sector Overview Today’s US stock market reflected a mixed performance across different sectors. The technology sector is showing nuanced trends, with Microsoft (MSFT) dipping slightly by 0.50%, suggesting a tightening on tech valuations. However, Oracle (ORCL) stands out, gaining 0.62% amid growing interest in software infrastructure advancements. The semiconductor sector remains under pressure, with major

Prior +0.5%Market index 195.6 vs 192.4 priorPurchase index 136.0 vs 133.3 priorRefinance index 514.9 vs 506.0 prior30-year mortgage rate 6.90% vs 6.86% prior Despite a continued rise in the average home loan rate, mortgage applications steadied in the past week with both purchases and refinancing activity showing a bounce. It’s only a bit of a

To start the US session , the USDJPY is the biggest movers as it bounced back to the upside extending back above technical levels in the process. The pair is up 0.66% to start the US trading session. Yields are moving higher helping the pair with the 10 year up about 4.5 basis points at

A note from Nomura argues that: Asia is better prepared for Trump’s second presidency, but a larger economic growth drag and disinflation now look more likely in 2025. Main points: Higher tariffs, weaker global demand and more policy uncertainty are set to weigh on Asia’s economic growth. Disinflation is a bigger risk for Asia, given

Ford is announcing they will cut 4000 jobs primarily in Germany and the UK. They blame week EV sales and also lack of government support and increasing competition. Shares of Ford are trading your unchanged at $11.05 in premarket trading. The last few days has seen the price test the 100 day moving average at

JP Morgan US economic outlook for next year, in breif There are now upside risks to growth from deregulation and tax cutting and downside risks from tariffs and general policy uncertaintyBut one shouldn’t lose sight of the business cycle, which has been performing wellWe look for only a mild downshift in growth in 2025 to

The broader US stock indices are trading lower to start the new trading day: S&P index -9.50 points or -0.16% at 5907NASDAQ index -45 points or -0.26% at 18937.50Dow industrial average up two points or 0.01% at 48274 Russell 2000 -5.87 points or -0.25% at 2318.91 Shares of Nvidia trading down $1.50 or -1.03% at

The data from earlier in the session is here: Japan October trade balance -461bn yen (expected -360bn yen) Exports rose 3.1% y/y in October, beating expectations of a 2.2% rise and a reversal from the -1.7% fall seen in September. September marked a 43-month low. Exports were led by a pick-up in chip equipment demand

People’s Bank of China USD/CNY reference rate is due around 0115 GMT. The People’s Bank of China (PBOC), China’s central bank, is responsible for setting the daily midpoint of the yuan (also known as renminbi or RMB). The PBOC follows a managed floating exchange rate system that allows the value of the yuan to fluctuate

The broader US stock indices led by the NASDAQ index closed higher. The Dow industrial average meanwhile fell. The final numbers are showing: S&P index +23.36 points or 0.40% at 5916.98NASDAQ index rose 195.66 points or 1.04% at 18987.47Russell 2000 rose 18.48 points or 0.80% at 2324.82 Dow industrial average felt -120.66 points or -0.28%

Headlines: Dollar holds firmer in European morning tradeUSDJPY Technical Analysis – The JPY remains the weakest among the majorsS&P 500 Technical Analysis – The path of least resistance remains to the upsideECB’s de Guindos: Current low growth environment has more to do with structural policyECB sounds warning on “bubble” in AI stocks in latest financial

Prior -0.5% Producer prices were seen up compared to the previous month but year-on-year, remain down by 1.1%. Looking at the details, there were increases in the price for capital goods (+0.2%), consumer goods (+0.2%), and durable goods (+0.2%). This is offset slightly by a decline in prices for intermediate goods (-0.3%). This article was

Economic growth remains fragileConcerns about global trade outlook add to geopolitical and policy uncertaintyHigh valuations and risk concentration make markets more susceptible to sudden correctionsThis concentration among a few large firms raises concerns over the possibility of an AI-related asset price bubbleGiven low liquid asset holdings, cash shortages could result in forced asset sales that

US broader indices close higher. Dow industrial average moves lower.Nvidia to announce earnings after the close tomorrowCrude oil futures settled at $69.39Bitcoin trades to a new all-time highMore from KC Fed Pres. Schmid: Rates are still somewhat restrictiveKC Fed Pres. Schmid: Remains to be seen how far interest rates may fallEuropean shares close lower but

Fundamental Overview The US Dollar continues to consolidate despite the higher-than-expected inflation figures and a less dovish Powell last week. The market’s pricing remained largely unchanged at three rate cuts by the end of 2025. This might be a signal that the market is now fine with the current pricing, and we will need stronger

The Financial Times have a (gated) report on this: Via an ungated report: Danish authorities appear to have narrowed down a possible culprit to Chinese bulker Yi Peng 3, which traveled over the reported incident site at the time of the failure. Its AIS track shows the vessel drifting back and forth for around an

Good morning, afternoon and evening all. Any charts, technical analysis, trade ideas, thoughts, views, ForexLive traders would like to share and discuss with fellow ForexLive traders, please do so: This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

Treasurer Jim Chalmers has delivered his Ministeral Statement on the Economy. In summary Chalmers pointed to Australia facing a more challenging fiscal outlook as key trading partner China cools and the local job market loosens tumbling iron ore prices and a softening labour market have hit government revenueleaving a “sliver” of the revenue windfalls that

Cook and Collins look likely to be the most pertinent for traders: Times below are in GMT_US Eastern time format: 1500_ 000 Federal Reserve Vice Chair for Supervision Michael Barr testifies on oversight of prudential regulators before the Housee Financial Services Committee Barr spoke Tuesday, without comment on the economy or monetary policy Expect the

Via oilprice dot com on Twitter: — Expectations for change I had seen centred on: Headline crude +0.1 mn barrelsDistillates 0 (zero) mn bblsGasoline +0.9 mn — This data point is from a privately-conducted survey by the American Petroleum Institute (API). It’s a survey of oil storage facilities and companiesThe official report is due Wednesday

Trump is still still pondering his choice to be Treasury Secretary. Former Federal Reserve Governor Kevin Warsh looks to be the the favorite in the betting market. Warsh has been critical of both government spending and the Fed’s response to inflation. He wrote in a Wall Street Journal (may be gated) piece mid-year: Interest Rates

Proprietary (prop) trading as a concept has experienced a huge surge in popularity over recent years, developing into an established way of trading for many across the world, while ushering in a new era in terms of how trades are conducted. For the many companies now operating within the sector, prop traders are typically expected

Coindesk reporting: The Trump transition team is considering Teresa Goody Guillén, partner at law firm BakerHostetler and co-lead of its blockchain team, among several candidates to become the next SEC chair, industry sources said. Goody Guillén is a seasoned securities lawyer with experience serving the SEC and opposing the agency on behalf of blockchain companies

Fundamental Overview The US Dollar continues to consolidate despite the higher-than-expected inflation figures and a less dovish Powell last week. The market’s pricing remained largely unchanged at three rate cuts by the end of 2025. This might be a signal that the market is now fine with the current pricing, and we will need stronger

Fundamental Overview The US Dollar continues to consolidate despite the higher-than-expected inflation figures and a less dovish Powell last week. The market’s pricing remained largely unchanged at three rate cuts by the end of 2025. This might be a signal that the market is now fine with the current pricing, and we will need stronger

That’s a bit problematic for the ECB as pay growth is seen accelerating once again. That is unlikely to put off a December rate cut though as the wages data here hasn’t really translated to any significant reacceleration in consumer prices. So, the hope for policymakers is that wage pressures should fade going into next

Bloomberg (gated) with the info – in brief: Chinese mutual fund companies, including China Asset Management Co. and E Fund Management Co., are cutting management fees on equity ETFs from 0.5% to 0.15% and halving custodian fees to 0.05%. The fee cuts align with calls from Chinese authorities to support the stock market Bloomberg analyst

Fundamental Overview Last week, we got a pullback in the S&P 500 as the higher than expected inflation readings and a less dovish Powell weighed a bit on the market. Despite the recent events though, the market’s pricing remained largely unchanged at three rate cuts by the end of 2025. This might be a signal

Monetary policy is not almighty They have never been shy on making sure that lawmakers should shoulder some of the blame on this, and rightfully so. This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

The PBOC’s Loan Prime Rate (LPR) will be set today, both 1- and 5-year. The TL;DR is that no change in rates is expected. Currently the one-year LPR is at 3.1%, while the five-year rate is 3.6% both were cut by 25 basis points last month, the largest reduction since authorities reformed the LPR pricing

1600 GMT/1100 US Eastern time – Bank of England Deputy Governor Dave Ramsden speech on monetary policy at the University of Leeds Ramsden is the Deputy Governor for Markets and Banking. He is responsible for oversight of Markets, Banking, Payments and Resolution directorates. member of the Monetary Policy Committee, the Financial Policy Committee and the

Japan trade data for October 2024 Japan exports to: EU -11.3% y/yUS -6.2% y/yChina +1.5% y/yAsia +7.6% y/y Improving exports will be welcomed by Japanese authorities. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

The Kansas City Fed Pres. Schmid is back on the wires saying: Rates are still somewhat restrictive, but not overly soThe coming tariffs, immigration policies will be relevant to the Fed if the impact employment and inflationthe inflation fight is not done yet Once again, not much . Meanwhile, US stocks extend their gains with

It is said that the two discussed the matter on the sidelines of the G20 summit, with Xi stating that China is ready to “consolidate” a strategic partnership with Germany. That before raising the matter of the tariffs imposed by the EU on Chinese-made EVs. Xinhua also reports that China is looking to “resolve the

A snippet from the Wall Street Journal on the lower yen in Tokyo trade so far today./ In brief: yen weakensJapanese authorities’ verbal warnings appear to be losing effectiveness Citing CBA analysts: Market reaction to Japanese Finance Minister Kato’s comments on Tuesday was much smaller compared with Friday“If words cease to have the desired impact,

After a bit of a pause in the last few days, the dollar is starting to flex its muscles once again. The greenback is sitting atop the major currencies bloc, now extending gains across the board on the day. USD/JPY already traded a little higher earlier but now other dollar pairs are catching up. EUR/USD

The September report here was encouraging but all it did was help to reaffirm a 25 bps rate cut earlier this month. The BOE will next meet on 19 December and there will be two inflation reports between now and then. The first of which will be today and the second will be just a

There are just a couple to take note of on the day, as highlighted in bold. They are for EUR/USD at the 1.0540 and 1.0620 levels. The former isn’t one that holds much technical significance so I wouldn’t bet on it to come into play, although geopolitical headlines yesterday did briefly shook the pair out

Westpac Leading Index, in brief: Leading Index has moved into positive territory, from –0.20% in September to +0.26% in October.This provides a tentative signal that growth momentum is set to improve from its current nadir.Improvements mostly centred on components related to consumer sentiment and commodity prices. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

The pair is now back up to around 155.50 on the day, higher by 0.5%. It comes as the push and pull continues, after the fall yesterday was arguably stirred by geopolitical headlines triggering some risk aversion in broader markets. Treasury yields were pulled lower then but are now recovering, helping to underpin the bounce

The People’s Bank of China set the onshore yuan (CNY) reference rate for the trading session ahead. USD/CNY is the onshore yuan. Its permitted to trade plus or minus 2% from this daily reference rate.CNH is the offshore yuan. USD /CNH has no restrictions on its trading range.A significantly stronger or weaker rate than expected

Nvidia will announce its earnings after the close tomorrow in trading today, the premier chipmakers shares are up $6.57 or 4.69% to $146.69. The all-time high closing level is at $148.88. What are the expectations Earnings Expectations Adjusted quarterly earnings: $0.74 per share versus $0.40 last year (85% YoY increase) Revenue: $33.2 billion versus $18.12

Federal Reserve Vice Chair for Supervision Michael Barr delivering prepared testimony. Doesn’t comment on the economy or monetary policy. As a Federal Reserve Governor Barr has a vote on the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC). This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

China left benchmark lending rates unchanged today, in line with market expectations: one-year loan prime rate (LPR) kept at 3.1%five-year LPR unchanged at 3.6%China widely expected to keep benchmark lending rates unchanged this week … the Reuters survey of 28 market participants had all respondents expecting the rates to stay unchanged Most new and outstanding

Kansas City Fed Pres. Jeffrey will be speaking at 1:10 PM ET on the economy and monetary policy outlook. The USD is mixed in trading today with modest changes vs the major currency pairs. The USD index (DXY) is trading unchanged. US stocks are trading mixed with the NASDAQ index leading the way with a

China Loan Prime Rate 5 year 3.60% expected 3.60%, prior 3.60% 1 year 3.10% expected 3.10%, prior 3.10% This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

Bitcoin has pushed to the upside and has extended to a new all-time high price at $94,000. That move has taken out the prior high price at $93,483. Since November 4 just before the election, the price is now up 40.81%.Since the swing low on August 5 (the Japan carry trade unwind day), the price

The price of WTI crude oil is settling at $69.39. That’s up $0.23 or 0.33% . Technically, the price is closing above its 200-hour moving average at $69.23 (green line on the chart above). The last corrective low stayed above its rising 100-hour moving average at $68.25 (blueline on the chart above). The low price

The EURJPY price action has been trading in a volatile up and down price action over the last few trading days. What has been consistent in the volatility, is the price highs have been stalling near moving averages. Today, four of those moving averages are near each other between 163.62 and 164.02. Include in that

Remains to be seen how far interest rates might fallCuts are an acknowledgment of the Fed’s confidence inflation is on a path to 2% target. Large fiscal deficits will not cause inflation because the Fed will prevent it, though that could mean higher interest rates This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

People’s Bank of China USD/CNY reference rate is due around 0115 GMT. The People’s Bank of China (PBOC), China’s central bank, is responsible for setting the daily midpoint of the yuan (also known as renminbi or RMB). The PBOC follows a managed floating exchange rate system that allows the value of the yuan to fluctuate

ECB’s Muller: I don’t see a reason to move in bigger steps nowBoE’s Lombardelli: I see risks to inflation on both sidesBoE’s Mann: Forward-looking indicators raising the risk of inflation persistenceBoE’s Taylor: Gradual cuts implies 100 bps of easing over the next yearBoE’s Bailey: We need to watch services inflation very carefullyECB’s Panetta: Still a

Howard Lutnick has been helping to run the transition team for Pres. Trump and Punchbowl is now reporting that Trump is set to name him the head of the Commerce Department. Lutnick had been lobbying for Treasury Secretary with Elon Musk supporting him as well. However, there was some rumblings that Trump did not like

Spotted a view from Citi on the news wires. Citi Research anticipates that the Japanese government might intervene to support the yen if the USD/JPY exchange rate reaches the 160.00–165.00 range. Citi’s expectations were from before remarks from Bank of Japan (BoJ) Governor Kazuo Ueda on Monday,. More: Ministry of Finance (MoF) may be preparing

The biggest beneficiary of the U.S. presidential election results isn’t the cryptocurrency market, especially Bitcoin, which surpassed a record $93,000 just last week, but Elon Musk. He put himself in a difficult position by supporting one of the candidates. If his candidate had lost, his personal life and the fate of his companies would have

The IAEA is saying that Iran agreed to stop producing near bomb-grade uranium. The news that sent oil prices down from six $9.61 to a new session low at $68.46. However the price has since rebounded to near mid range and $69.23. That is up about seven cents on the day. This article was written

The AUDUSD moved lower earlier in the day and that move to the downside tested a swing area between 0.6471 and 0.6479. The low price for the day reached 0.6481 before bouncing back to the upside. The move to the upside did extend back above a swing area going back to mid July between 0.6505

The major European indices are closing lower on the day but off the lowest level from the geopolitical concerns from the pre-US opening levels. The final numbers are showing: German Dax fell -128.88 points or -0.67% at 19060.32. At session lows the index reached 18812.53.France’s CAC fell -48.59 points or -0.67% at 7229.65. Session lows

The Atlanta Fed GDPNow growth estimate for Q4 rises to 2.6% from 2.5% previously. In their own words: The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the fourth quarter of 2024 is 2.6 percent on November 19, up from 2.5 percent on November 15. After this morning’s housing starts report

Sector Overview 📈 Consumer Defensive: Discount retailers are the highlight today, with Walmart (WMT) seeing an impressive gain of 2.97%, indicating robust consumer spending in cost-effective retail.📉 Technology: Mixed signals arise from tech, with Nvidia (NVDA) leading with a 1.43% gain, while Intel (INTC) shows a notable setback with a 2.40% drop, possibly due to

At the bottom of the hour, US building permits and housing starts will be released along with Canada CPI US building permits are expected to come in at 1.430M versus 1.428M (annualized). Housing starts are expected at 1.330M versus 1.354M last month. In Canada, CPI inflation will also be released: CPI MoM est 0.3% versus

Forward-looking price and wage indicators have been flat and above target for four months, raising the risk of inflation persistence.Financial markets’ inflation expectations suggest the BoE will not get to a sustainable 2% inflation in the forecast horizon. This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at www.forexlive.com.

The major US stock indices are opening lower but not as low as premarket levels. In premarket trading, the S&P index is down over -50 points. The NASDAQ index is down over -200 points and the Dow industrial average was down over -500 points, and geopolitical concerns. Some of that fear has dissipated a bit.

It’s ok to continue with a gradual pace of rate cuts.Gradual cuts implies 100 bps of easing over the next year.This is closely aligned with market curve currently.That is not necessarily what will unfold, depending on economic conditions.There are conditions where the BoE can go faster.Labour market data is key for my view on rate

Bank of America pm Sterling, looking for gains in 2025. BoA cite UK unlikely to be the focal point of Trump’s trade tariff plansUK reliance on its service sector will also offer some protection against any tariffsdirection of travel in Brexit is less hostile under the UK Labour government BoA not looking for immediate sustained

Housing starts 1.311M vs 1.330M estimate. Prior month 1.354M last month revised to 1.353MBuilding permits 1.416M vs 1.430M estimate. Prior month 1.428M last month. Building Permits Privately-owned housing units authorized: 1,416,000 (seasonally adjusted annual rate) vs 1,430,000 estimate 0.6% below revised September rate (1,425,000) 7.7% below October 2023 rate (1,534,000) Single-family authorizations: 968,000 Authorizations of

Bloomberg is reporting that the: US indicated it will not respond to Russia’s nuclear doctrine moveBiden said that Russia has been threatening nuclear This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

It is not thought to be a Mag 7 but it does show the heartbeat of the US consumer. Walmart announced earnings today and beat on both EPS and Revenues. Below is a summary of the numbers: Q3 2024 Adj. EPS: $0.58 (beat expectations of $0.53)Q3 2024 Revenue: $169.50 billion (beat expectations of $167.68 billion)Total

Prior +1.7%Core CPI +2.7% vs +2.7% y/y prelimPrior +2.7% No changes to the initial estimates as this mostly reaffirms a slightly stickier core reading for the month. This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

Prior month -0.4%CPI MoM 0.4% versus 0.3% estimateCore CPI M 0.3% versus 0.1% last monthoM CPI YoY 2.0% versus 1.9% YoY . Prior month or .6%CPI Median 2.5% versus 2.4% estimate. Last month 2.3%CPI Trim 2.6% versus 2.4% estimate. Last month 2.4%CPI Common 2.2% versus 2.1% last monthCPI BOC Core YoY 1.7% versus 16% last

ANZ-Roy Morgan Australian Consumer Confidence weekly survey: 86.8 prior 86.7 Under 100, which is where this indicator seems to live now, is net pessimistic. ANZ comments: moving in a narrow rangeHousehold confidence in the 12mth economic outlook has risen 10.7pts since early JulyInflation expectstions eased 0.2ppt to 4.7% This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan

The USD is tilting lower in the US session and that has the USDCAD and the USDCHF moving below a technical level increasing the bearish bias at least in the short term. For the USDCAD, the price has moved below the 200 hour MA at 1.3977 and also the 2022 high price at 1.3978. Breaking

A 25 bps rate cut in December is likely.I don’t see a reason to move in bigger steps now. This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at www.forexlive.com.

Reserve Bank of Australia November meeting minutes due today: 0030 GMT1930 US Eastern time I characterised the statement from the meeting as hawkish: AUD little changed after hawkish RBAReserve Bank of Australia leaves cash rate unchanged at 4.35%, as expected After the statement Governor Bullock spoke: RBA governor Bullock: Rates need to stay restrictive for

We need to watch services inflation very carefully.Services inflation is still above a level that’s compatible with on-target inflation.Inflation was lower than expected when the BoE cut rates.A gradual approach to removing monetary policy restraint will help us to observe risks to the inflation outlook. This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at www.forexlive.com.

Fundamental Overview Last week, despite the higher-than-expected inflation figures and a less dovish Powell, the market’s pricing remained largely unchanged at three rate cuts by the end of 2025. This might be a signal that the market is now fine with the current pricing, and we will need stronger reasons to price out the remaining

Price action is volatile but contained in the three major currency pairs as a markets digest geopolitical risks: EURUSD: The EURUSD is trading between support near 1.05158 and resistance near 1.0610. The price is trading near 1.0585 as buyers and sellers panel between the extremes. USDJPY: The USDJPY is remaining below the 200-hour moving average

Earlier today, ECB Panetta said that the ECB should move toward neutral and perhaps go below that level into an expansionary policy. He is out now saying that: It is not blasphemy that rates could go below neutral levels. Panetta said that forthcoming changes to US government adds uncertainty to inflation outlook. This article was

Walmart spokesperson is warning that significant increasing tires could lead to increase prices for consumers (note not the company). Earlier today Walmart reported earnings: Walmart (WMT) Q3 2024 (USD): Adj. EPS 0.58 (exp. 0.53) Revenue 169.50bn (exp. 167.68bn) Total US comparable sales ex-gas +5.5% (exp. +3.8%) FY adj. EPS view 2.42-2.47 (prev. 2.35-2.43, exp. 2.45)

And that comes after a key test of the 1.0500 mark last week, with the importance of the level underlined here. The bounce this week sees the pair nudge up closer to 1.0600 but is also pausing a little since overnight trading. That coincides with the 23.6 Fib retracement level of the swing lower this

Big Time Studios, a Web3 gaming trailblazer and creator of the Open Loot platform and hit game Big Time, which has already processed a half billion dollars in total transaction volume, is making waves again. Active users of the Open Loot platform will soon be able to collect $OL, the marketplace’s first utility token, which

Reuters’ latest survey of 28 market watchers sees all respondents expecting both the 1-year and 5-year LPRs to remain unchanged at 3.10% and 3.60% respectively. A trader at a Chinese bank commented that: “LPRs were lowered so sharply in October, so it is unlikely to have another cut this month. We may first wait and

The AUDUSD – like other pairs vs the USD today – has moved sharply lower over the last 6 /7 trading days, over that period, the high price on November 7 reached 0.6687. The low price on Thursday last week reached 0.64402. At the high, the price stalled just ahead of the 100 day MA.

If domestic demand remains weak, inflation could fall well below 2%.The ECB should move to neutral monetary policy stance, or even expansionary if necessary.Eurozone economic activity remains weak, no turning point in sight for beleaguered manufacturing sector.The tightening bias in our official description of the monetary stance is no longer necessary.The ECB should return to

The price of WTI crude oil is settling at $69.16. That is up $2.14 or 3.19%. Of interest is the January contract price traders briefly above the December price for the 1st time since February. Bullish Factors: Geopolitical Tensions:U.S. approval for Ukraine to use long-range missiles inside Russia raises conflict risks.North Korea may send 100,000

China Securities Journal quotes analysts saying further cuts to RRR coming this year. — The Reserve Requirement Ratio (RRR) is a central bank regulation that sets the minimum amount of reserves each bank must hold in relation to their deposit liabilities. Its the percentage of total deposits that banks are legally required to keep on

Major US stock indices remain under pressure as concerns about geopolitical risks from Russia continue to weigh on the markets: Dow -504 point S&P index -56.87 pointsNASDAQ index -204 points Russia’s Lavro is saying Ukraine’s attacks against Russia’s border region is an escalation signal. Earlier, Russia’s Kremlin said that the updated nuclear doctrine signed by

On the Stoxx 600 index, they now forecast it at 530 over the next 12 months and that is down from 540 previously. As for the UK FTSE, they see it at 8,500 and that is down from their previous forecast of 8,800. With rising risks of trade protectionism, that is posing a key risk

Fundamental Overview Last week, despite the higher-than-expected inflation figures and a less dovish Powell, the US Dollar couldn’t extend the gains. The market’s pricing remained largely unchanged at three rate cuts by the end of 2025. This might be a signal that the market is now fine with the current pricing, and we will need

The Reserve Bank of Australia minutes indicate that the board remains vigilant to upside inflation risks and believes policy needs to remain restrictive. The board saw no “immediate need” to change the cash rate.It is not possible to rule anything in or out regarding future changes in the cash rate.Forecasts are based on the technical

The National Development and Reform Commission of the People’s Republic of China (NDRC) ins the country’s ‘state planner’: Approved 97 fixed-asset investment projects worth a total of 916 bln yuan in January – OctoberExpects China’s economy to sustain recovery momentum in November and DecemberChina has ample policy room, tools to support economic recovery This article

Russia’s Kremlin said that the updated nuclear doctrine signed by Putin is a very important text. Putin warned that Russia reserves the right to use nuclear weapons in an event of aggression. The US gave Ukraine permission to use long-range US missiles inside of Russia in its war with nation. The comment helped to the

The broader market mood is quickly shifting now in European morning trade as there is a whiff of risk-off sentiment in the air. Equities are selling off while bonds are being bid as yields stumble lower. 10-year Treasury yields are now down 6 bps to 4.35% with 10-year German bund yields down 8 bps to

I see risks to inflation on both sides.We have seen a fall in services inflation and wage settlements.Minimum wage comes up as pressure for businesses more than any other pressure.I am more concerned about upside risks to inflation as costs are higher if inflation gets entrenched. This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at www.forexlive.com.

The People’s Bank of China set the onshore yuan (CNY) reference rate for the trading session ahead. USD/CNY is the onshore yuan. Its permitted to trade plus or minus 2% from this daily reference rate.CNH is the offshore yuan. USD /CNH has no restrictions on its trading range.A significantly stronger or weaker rate than expected

Eurostoxx flatGermany DAX flatFrance CAC 40 +0.1%UK FTSE +0.4%Spain IBEX -0.2%Italy FTSE MIB -0.4% S&P 500 futures are also lightly changed, up marginally by 0.1% on the day. It’s a bit of a slower one as market players are taking time to reassess the post-election rush from last week. Major currencies are also keeping lightly

There’s a headline floating that Kremlin is threatening a nuclear response amid Ukraine’s use of Western missiles against Russia. And that is perhaps one reason for the more negative risk push in the last ten minutes or so. However, it is perhaps a timely trigger to shove bond yields lower after having ran into some

Now that everyone is certain of Donald Trump’s return to office, you may be wondering how the new government will impact the financial markets. Understanding these political dynamics is essential for cryptocurrency or forex traders. Being well-informed can help you navigate market changes effectively. With the successful conclusion of the US election and Trump winning

In the European session we don’t have much on the agenda. There’s only the Eurozone CPI report but since it’s the Final reading, the market won’t care much. In the American session, we have the Canadian CPI report, which is going to be the main event for today. 13:30 GMT/08:30 ET – Canada October CPI

Fundamental Overview Last week, despite the higher-than-expected inflation figures and a less dovish Powell, the US Dollar couldn’t extend the gains. The market’s pricing remained largely unchanged at three rate cuts by the end of 2025. This might be a signal that the market is now fine with the current pricing, and we will need

Coming up at 0715 GMT / 0215 US Eastern time: Riksbank First Deputy Governor Anna Breman speaks about current monetary policy and the economy — Sveriges Riksbank is the central bank of Sweden, and it operates independently from the European Central Bank (ECB). Sweden is a member of the European Union (EU). While Sweden is

The dollar is lightly changed but sitting a little more mixed as we look towards European morning trade today. USD/JPY is once again the notable mover as it slides back down towards the 154.00 level in Asia. The pair is holding lower as Treasury yields are also seen pulling back a little to start the

Slight delay in the release by the source. There were surpluses recorded for goods (€33 billion), services (€16 billion) and primary income (€2 billion). Meanwhile, a deficit was recorded for secondary income (€14 billion). This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

At 1015 GMT / 0515 US Eastern time, Governor Andrew Bailey and other Bank of England officials are appearing before the UK Treasury Committee Andrew Bailey, Governor of the Bank of England Clare Lombardelli, Deputy Governor for Monetary Policy, Bank of England Dr Catherine L. Mann, External member, Monetary Policy Committee, Bank of England Professor

Mixed ending for US stocks to start the new trading weekEconomic calendar in Asia Tuesday, November 19, 2024 – RBA minutesTrump Media in advance talks to buy Crypto Platform BAKKTECBs Vujcic: The risk of inflation undershooting has picked upWTI Crude oil settles $2.14 higher at $69.16BOEs Greene: UK services inflation is elevated but on a

The headlines on this news are here: US DoJ to pressure Google to sell Chrome – break monopoly The report is carried by Bloomberg, which is gated, but Reuters have ungated info available if you are after more: U.S. Department of Justice will ask a judge to force Alphabet’s Google to sell off its Chrome

Good morning, afternoon and evening all. Any charts, technical analysis, trade ideas, thoughts, views, ForexLive traders would like to share and discuss with fellow ForexLive traders, please do so: This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

A note via Capital Economics argues: While Trump’s trade policies receive attentionon, immigration restrictions may have a more substantial economic impact, potentially leading to lower growth and higher costs across critical sectors. Capital Eco says, in brief, that the immigration policy will reduce economic growth in the US by around 1% a year: Proposed Restrictions:Plans

Goldman Sachs says that they see the ‘Magnificent 7’ carrying the benchmark index mostly, with the bunch set to outperform as compared to the other index constituents. That being said, they do expect the ‘Magnificent 7’ to only outperform by about 7% – the slimmest margin in seven years. Adding to upside risks, the firm

The GBPUSD is trading higher in is a poaching a key resistance and its 100-hour moving average at 1.2681. Also near that level is the high of a swing area between 1.2654 and 1.26858. Get above that level would be needed for the buyers to have a technical “win” after steady selling over the last

Goldman Sachs sees gold as a strong hedge against potential risks from Trump-era tariffs, predicting prices will rise further in 2025. I posted on their forecast yesterday: Goldman Sachs have reiterated their gold target of $3,000 an ounce by December 2025 Adding a little more now: GS highlights gold’s role as a safe haven during

MUFG chairman says Japan’s rate increase will be accelerated because there is more inflation pressure. Its been an active morning in Asia for yen: USD/JPY drops towards 154.00Japanese Economic Revitalisation Minister Akazawa says crucial to boost payJapan finance minister Kato – will continue to take action on excessive FX moves USD/JPY now off its lows:

The pair is down again today by 0.3% to 154.18 currently, after having pushed just above 155.00 early yesterday. It’s been a push and pull start to the week but that largely owes to the moves in the bond market. 10-year Treasury yields nudged up to around 4.47% early yesterday before retreating back to just

Prior CHF 4.95 billion; revised to CHF 4.94 billion Here’s the breakdown of the Swiss trade balance for last month: This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

German DAX futures +0.1%UK FTSE futures +0.3% This comes with US futures seen up marginally by 0.1%. Tech shares remain in focus as all eyes are on Nvidia’s earnings after the close tomorrow. As for the overall market mood, it’s fairly pensive right now as the post-election euphoria meets a bit of a pause. This

The EURUSD is stretching to the upside with the price now moving away from the 100-hour MA at 1.05659. That MA was broken earlier today after finding sellers against the moving average level on Friday and again earlier today. Although the price traded above and below the 100-hour moving average on the first break (the

Bank of America says broad market is ‘statistically expensive on almost every metric’ raises year-end price S&P 500 to 6,000we see limited near-term upside to the cap-weighted S&P 500 and prefer the equal-weighted index, but our bear market signposts — the triggers that typically precede an S&P 500 peak — are not signaling elevated risks

There is just one to take note of on the day, as highlighted in bold. That being for EUR/USD at the 1.0600 level. It isn’t one that holds much technical significance and with the dollar retracing back some of its moves from last week, the expiries may not offer too much pull on such a

USD/JPY has dropped from earlier hihgs here in Asia around 154.70 to be on approach to 154.00. Low is circa 154.10. There are no fresh news nor data catalysts This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

ANZ preview the Reserve Bank of New Zealand meeting on November 27. In brief: We expect a 50bp cut to 4.25% next week. That would be consistent with RBNZ October messaging, economists’ forecasts, and market pricing. Data since the October Monetary Policy Review has been mixed, but no data looks likely to upset the apple

The US stock day is ending mixed to start the new trading week. Dow industrial average Dow industrial average fell -55.39 points or -0.13% at 43389.60.S&P index rose 23.00 points or 0.39% and 5893.62.NASDAQ index rose 111.69 points or 0.60% and 18791.81Russell 2000 rose 2.505 points or 0.11% at 2306.34 Shares of Nvidia fell -1.29%

Bank of England Governor Bailey, other officials, appear in parliament committtee TuesdayFX option expiries for 19 November 10am New York cutSEK traders heads up – Riksbank First Deputy Governor Anna Breman speaks TuesdayFederal Reserve Bank of Kansas City President Jeffrey Schmid speaking Tuesday“BOJ to bid farewell to stimulus era, justify rate hikes in policy review”MUFG

Japan finance minister Kato Important for currencies to move in stable manner reflecting fundamentals Will continue to take appropriate action against excessive forex moves Absolutely no change to our stance on forex USD/JPY is on session lows: This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

Japanese Economic Revitalisation Minister Akazawa aiming for cabinet approval of economic package sooncrucial to boost pay for all generations with the package This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

Bloomberg carry the report, saying the US Department Of Justice is to prompt Google to sell Chrome in order to break its monopoly. Top Justice Department antitrust officials have decided to ask a judge to force Alphabet’s Google to sell off its Chrome browser This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

BOE Greene is speaking and she says: UK’s services inflation is elevated but on a downward pathUK budget will raise inflationinflation gauges are generally coming down.Services inflation not falling as fast as I would like.Labor market easing and wage growth it should come off Meanwhile, the GBPUSD has moved up to test the next target

I posted earlier on Citi eyeing the 160 level in USD/JPY: ICYMI – Citi base case is for no USD/JPY intervention before 160 MUFG are also keen on that area: risk of intervention and/or the Bank of Japan raising earlier would rise if USD/JPY moved above 160.00BoJ Governor Ueda’s remarks on Monday fit with our

1810 GMT / 1310 US Eastern time: Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City President Jeffrey Schmid speaks on the economic and monetary policy outlook This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

Reuters with this on the Bank of Japan review of its monetary policy. The review will be released on December 19. Reuters make some assertions on what to expect: symbolic step towards ending its massive stimulusWhile the BOJ has said the outcome of the review will not have direct implications on near-term monetary policy, it

ECBs Vujcic is on the wires saying: The risk of inflation undershooting has picked up. The EURUSD moved up to test the swing area on the 4-hour chart between 1.06005 and 1.06010. The price has come off after reaching into that area. The current price is back at 1.05904. This article was written by Greg

A note from TD assessing the implications of the expected Trump tariffs and what it means for EUR/USD: Trump’s tariffs will have a significant impact on the eurozone economy (not a positive one!)euro zone has limited engines of growtheconomic policy uncertainty running high across EuropeECB is expected to cut interest rate more than the Federal

The FT is reporting that Trump Media is in advanced talks to buy Crypto Platform BAKKT. HMMMM. Of course President-elect Trump is the largest stock owner of Trump media. Shares of DJT are up 10.89% at $31.20 Also Pres. Trump is to meet privately with Coinbase CEO Brian Armstrong presumably to talk about a SEC

A summary of a speech from EU Lagarde at College des Bernardins: Current Challenges Technological Lag: Europe is falling behind in innovation and productivity compared to the U.S. and China.EU specializes in outdated technologies; only 4 of the world’s top 50 tech firms are European.Lack of unified digital market and venture capital investment hinders technological

Believes in cautious and prudent approach, policy is working as it isIt would be “going a bit far” to say that a rate cut in December is “in the bag”We are going meeting by meetingLet’s see what the data tells us but reasonable to assume we are on a downwards trajectory on rates Again, it

Gold is up sharply in trading today after falling -4.52% last week – its worst week since falling 6.03% during week of June 14, 2021. Technically, looking at the hourly chart, the price moved sharply lower last week and in doing so stayed below its 100-hour moving average (blue line on the chart above). After

Major European indices are closing the day with mixed results. The German DAX and Italy’s FTSE MIB move lower. The major indices are higher. German DAX, -0.18%France’s, +0.12%UK’s FTSE 100, +0.57%Spain’s Ibex, +0.33%Italy’s FTSE MIB, -1.27% As London/European traders had for the exits, US stocks have pushed into positive territory led by the NASDAQ index

It is being reported on Bloomberg, that the Trump team is supporting former Fed Governor Kevin Warsh (2006 to 2011) as the next Treasury Secretary. President-elect Donald Trump is evaluating several candidates for the position of Treasury Secretary. He was expected to meet with these candidates at his Mar-a-Lago club in Florida to further assess

And with a slight nudge up today, price is testing the 100-hour moving average (red line) again. The key near-term level is seen at 1.0571 currently. Hold below that and sellers will continue to keep a more bearish bias. But break above, and the near-term bias turns more neutral instead. That marks the key near-term

Sector Overview: Key Movers and Trends Today’s stock market heatmap reveals an interesting divergence among sectors. The consumer cyclical sector is shining, with Tesla (TSLA) making significant gains at +5.18%. On the other hand, the semiconductor sector is under pressure, highlighted by Nvidia (NVDA) dropping -1.50%. 📉 Semiconductor Sector: Cautious Sentiment Nvidia (NVDA) leads the

Domestic sight deposits CHF 455.0 bn vs CHF 455.4 bn prior Swiss sight deposits were little changed in the past week, still keeping within the range seen in the last few months. The trend as per below: This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

Foreign investors increased their exposure to Canadian securities by $29.3 billion in September (largest investment since April) vs 10.33 prior month (revised from 9.97B..Canadian acquisitions of foreign securities slowed to $4.14 billion in September (down from $12.3 billion in August).International transactions in securities generated a net inflow of $25.2 billion in the Canadian economy in

The USDCAD broke above the 2020 high price on Wednesday of last week at 1.3978, and that helped to kickstart additional gains on Thursday and Friday. The price of the USDCAD has been up for six consecutive days. The low price from November 7 reached 1.3843. The high price on Friday extended to 1.41049. In

Fundamental Overview Last week, despite the higher-than-expected inflation figures and a less dovish Powell, the US Dollar couldn’t extend the gains. The market’s pricing remained largely unchanged at three rate cuts by the end of 2025. This might be a signal that the market is now fine with the current pricing, and we will need

📊 Berkshire Hathaway (BRK.B) – A Retail Investor’s Strategy 🏦 👋 Hello! This is Itai Levitan, and today, I’m analyzing Berkshire Hathaway (BRK.B). This stock is much more accessible to retail investors due to its lower price per share compared to BRK.A. As a result, it experiences significantly higher trading volumes. Here’s a detailed “Buy

To start trading day and the trading week, the USD is trading down and back up vs most of the major currency pairs. It is mostly lower vs the NZD and the JPY today. In the US debt market yields are higher with the yield curve steepening: 2-year yield of 0.7 basis points 4.314%5-year up

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Services inflation is still slightly higher than I would preferPrudence and caution have a premium to them, we should continue in that mannerI don’t feel at the moment the need to rushWe need to think like a long-distance runner No rush but the signs are pointing to at least a 25 bps move in December

It’s a quiet one to start the week and also in terms of market moves so far. The dollar is keeping steady but failed to advance gains at the end of last week, and is seen little changed now. EUR/USD is still holding above 1.0500 while USD/JPY saw a tumble back under 155.00 but is

China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC) is the regulator of the securities industry in the country. Its said it’ll be expanding the scope of stock eligible to trade via Stock Connect. Shanghai-Hong Kong Stock Connect is one: a mutual market access program through which investors in each market can trade shares on the other market directlylaunched

Prior month 223.4K revised from 223.8K Housing starts annualized 240.8K vs 240.0K estimate This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

It’s going to be a slow day in terms of data releases with just a couple of low tier indicators. In terms of interest rates expectations, we are now in a kind of a limbo as the despite some hot inflation readings and a less dovish Powell, the market continues to see three rate cuts

Gold is up over 1% on the day and starting to close back in on testing the $2,600 mark once more. The bounce here comes as the precious metal looks to snap a run of six straight days of losses, after having ran into a test of its 100-day moving average (red line) last week:

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German DAX futures +0.2%UK FTSE futures +0.1% It’s a mild bounce after the drop on Friday, with US futures also seen up slight today. S&P 500 futures are up 0.3% but all eyes this week will be on Nvidia earnings, which will come after the close on Wednesday. This article was written by Justin Low

The Chicago Fed Pres. Austen Goolsbee is giving me opening remarks Financial Markets Group fall conference and says: Sees concentration of treasury clearing as a risk Needless to say, giving opening remarks is generally not a platform to give details about the economy or monetary policy. Nevertheless, if Goolsbee is around a microphone he tends

Prior month 43NAHB housing market index for November 46 versus 43 last month. Anything under 50 is considered negativeCurrent conditions +2 to 49Expectations +7 to 64Buyer traffic +3 to 32Housing market index is and it’s highest level since April This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

Headlines: USDJPY Technical Analysis – The market looks fine with the current pricingGold bulls ready to rumble again?EUR/USD continues to hold the line, draws in key near-term levelWeekly update on interest rate expectationsBOJ governor Ueda says will not comment on short-term FX movesBOJ governor Ueda says no huge build up of yen carry positions compared

ECBs Stournaras: A 25 basis point cut by the ECB by the end of the year is reasonableTrump tariffs could lead to recession in the medium-term In other ECB commentary, ECBs Lane is also talking and says: if policymakers had had perfect foresight about the shocks that were about to hitthe economy, interest rates would

The People’s Bank of China set the onshore yuan (CNY) reference rate for the trading session ahead. USD/CNY is the onshore yuan. Its permitted to trade plus or minus 2% from this daily reference rate.CNH is the offshore yuan. USD /CNH has no restrictions on its trading range.A significantly stronger or weaker rate than expected

No evidence monetary policy overall is more potent in Australia than elsewhereWorth reviewing RBA’s approach to forward guidance from time to timeThat includes considering other ways to clarify nature of reaction function Just some token remarks there as the RBA is still not quite in any position to be cutting rates just yet. This article

Timesd below are listed as GMT/US Eastern time. Lane is usually of interest (he is ECB chief economist) 0815/0315 Opening speech European Central Bank’s vice president Luis de Guindos at 27th Euro Finance Week “Setting the course for 2025” in Frankfurt, Germany 1300/0800 ECB chief economist Philip Lane speaks at a SUERF lecture in Rome

The major US major indices are opening with mixed results. The Dow industrial average is lower. The S&P index is trading near unchanged while the index is up modestly. A snapshot of the market currently shows (four minutes into the open): Dow industrial average is down -96.95 points or -0.22% at 43348.04S&P index -2.36 points

Goldman Sachs downgrade Hong Kong stocks to underweight. Hong Kong stock valuations are not high, but don’t offer much economic or earnings growthproperty and retail sectors remain under pressureeconomy may not benefit as much from policy support in China as it previously has, given China’s focus on bolstering the domestic economy This article was written

Bank of Japan Governor Ueda in Nagoya to deliver a speech and take questions from business executives. Full Text [PDF 504KB] In summary: Economic Activity: Corporate Sector: Business sentiment has improved, with corporate profits on an upward trend. Firms maintain active investment stances, focusing on future growth areas such as digitalization and decarbonization. Household Sector:

The USDCHF last week moved above the 61.8% retracement of the move down from the May 1 high to the early September low at 0.88989 last week, but failed on two separate attempts. The high price on Friday stalled near that retracement level and rotated to the downside. Going forward it would take a move

South Korea’s financial regulator statement: recent declines in stocks a little excessivewill prepare measures to stabilize markets as needed Info via Reuters Kospi daily candles: This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

The growth outlook is clouded by uncertainty about economic policies, geopolitical landscapeTrade tensions could rise further, increasing tail risk of events materialisingThe balance of risks has shifted from concerns about high inflation to fears over economic growth It has been the case already in the last few months for the ECB. And now even more

In recent weeks North Korea has sent troops to fight with Russian forces in Ukraine. The latest from the other side is now that the US has authorised the use of long-range American weapons to strike inside Russia. Escalation continues. More info here at CNN (there are plenty of other reports also if you check

MUFG on the euro, says the fall since the US election a little overdone. Sees prospects for improvement ahead, citing (in brief) there is a risk that the European Central Bank cuts rates slower than the market expects, MUFG says exp[ectations for cuts are ‘excessive’ MUFG says that the European Central Bank is not super-responsive

Rate cuts by year-end Fed: 15 bps (63% probability of rate cut at the upcoming meeting) 2025: 75 bps ECB: 32 bps (74% probability of 25 bps rate cut at the upcoming meeting) 2025: 141 bps BoE: 5 bps (80% probability of no change at the upcoming meeting) 2025: 62 bps BoC: 33 bps (65%

Fundamental Overview Last week, despite the higher-than-expected inflation figures and a less dovish Powell, the US Dollar couldn’t extend the gains. The market’s pricing remained largely unchanged at three rate cuts by the end of 2025. This might be a signal that the market is now fine with the current pricing, and we will need

No firm clues on a December rate hike from Ueda in his speech: Bank of Japan Governor Ueda says economy recovering moderately, some weak signs USD/JPY spiked higher, circa 154.98 seen on EBS: 1 minute candles This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

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Prior €4.6 billion This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

As is usual for a Monday morning, market liquidity is very thin until it improves as more Asian centres come online … prices are liable to swing around, so take care out there. Indicative rates, little change from late Friday: EUR/USD 1.0530USD/JPY 154.20GBP/USD 1.2626USD/CHF 0.8874USD/CAD 1.4088AUD/USD 0.6463NZD/USD 0.5865 This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan

Disappointing data this. Machinery Orders (MoM) (September) -1.7% expected 1.9%, prior -1.9% Machinery Orders (YoY) (September) +4.8% expected 2.2%, prior -3.4% More: for the July – September quarter machine orders fell 1.3% q/qOctober -December machinery orders are forecast at +5.7% q/q — Core machinery orders data is a highly volatile series its used as a

Fundamental Overview Last week, despite the higher-than-expected inflation figures and a less dovish Powell, the US Dollar couldn’t extend the gains. The market’s pricing remained largely unchanged at three rate cuts by the end of 2025. This might be a signal that the market is now fine with the current pricing, and we will need

Weak yen pushes up costs and have big negative impact on consumptionBut it is a positive for exports and inbound tourismDoes not think there is a huge build up of yen carry positions compared to JulySeeing progress in sustainably achieving price targetKeeping rates low for too long could accelerate inflation and force us to hike

A quiet week lies ahead in terms of scheduled economic events, though a few key releases and updates will still garner attention. On Tuesday, Australia will release the minutes from the RBA’s monetary policy meeting, providing insights into the central bank’s outlook. In the U.K., the monetary policy report hearings will take center stage, while

There are just a couple to take note of, as highlighted in bold. They are for EUR/USD at the 1.0500 and 1.0520 levels. Similar to last week, the former will be the more important one to watch as it sits alongside a key technical support region for the pair. That will once again be a

Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago President Austan Goolsbee spoke Friday: Fed’s Goolsbee says rates will be a lot lower “as long we keep making progress toward” 2% He is due to speak on Monday at 1500 GMT/1000US Eastern time: gives welcome remarks before the Financial Markets Group Fall Conference hosted by the Federal Reserve Bank

Eurostoxx +0.1%Germany DAX +0.1%France CAC 40 +0.1%UK FTSE +0.1%Spain IBEX flat The changes are light, reflecting the mood in US futures as well. S&P 500 futures are seen up 0.1% on the day. In other markets, major currencies continue to keep more muted overall. The dollar remains steady with narrow ranges still prevailing for the

Goldman Sachs lowered its forecast for Australia’s economic growth in 2025 (info comes via Bloomberg (gated)): forecasts Australian domestic product (GDP) rising 1.8% in 2025, down from its previous forecast of 2% GS cite likely “negative spillovers” from the incoming Trump’s expected increase in tariffs on China, specifically the impact on Australia’s exports to China.

Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago President Austan Goolsbee is speaking again on MondayGoldman Sachs have reiterated their gold target of $3,000 an ounce by December 2025Chinese city of Shanghai said it would reduce some taxes on real estate transactionsEuropean Central Bank President Lagarde speaking Monday, chief economist Lane also + moreGoldman Sachs downgrade Hong Kong

Goldman Sachs with the usual suspects cited for a rising gold price, saying structural drivers include: higher demand from central banksflows into exchange-traded fundsFederal Reserve rate cuts GS restated their US$3,000 target for end -2025. Also cited: unprecedented escalation of trade tensions could revive speculative positioning in goldrising concern over US fiscal sustainability ** On

Rick Rieder is BlackRock’s CIO of Global Fixed Income. He is still expecting a December Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) 25bp interest rate cut. Rieder says that the current 4.5% to 4.75% target range Fed Funds rate is restrictive After the cut in December Rieder expects the FOMC to pauseFOMC will assess the number of

Will scrutinise how FX moves affect economy, price forecasts at each policy meetingThere are numerous factors we want to check, including the US economyBut won’t necessarily wait until there is clarity for all of themWill check them at each policy meeting in deciding policyIf we don’t adjust degree of monetary support appropriately, could be forced

Chinese state media with the report, taxes on property reduced in Shanghai. Shanghai said on Monday it would reduce some taxes on real estate transactions effective from Dec. 1, a move that will support the local property market, according to state media report.Residents will be exempt from VAT when they buy a property for two

I posted earlier on Goldman Sachs and the Reserve Bank of Australia: Goldman Sachs lower its forecast for Australia’s economic growth in 2025 on Trump vs Chinaforecasts a 25bp interest rate cut from the Reserve Bank of Australia in February 2025 As for the Reserve Bank of New Zealand, Goldman Sachs expects two more 50bp

Smoking gun narratives centring on Ukraine / Russia / US developments: US authorizes Ukraine to use long-range US weapons to strike inside Russia Russia escalated with its influx of troops from North Korea. Now another escalation with the US authorization of the use of long-range weapons to hit targets inside of Russia. China looks to

I’ve posted a couple of times on this already, most recently: Heads up for Asia central bank speakers Monday, November 18 – BoJ Gov Ueda, RBA’s Kent Bank of Japan Governor Ueda speech is from 10am local time on Monday 0100 GMT (Monday), 2000 US Eastern time (Sunday) Q&A follows at 1.45 pm local time

Singapore’s non-oil domestic exports (NODX) -7.4% m/m in October 2024 expected +2.3%, prior -0.6% (revised from +1.1%) -4.6% y/y expected +4.0%, prior +0.9% (revised from +2.7%)notable NODX to Chi9na fell 22.3% y/y More: exports of non-electronics decreasedexports of electronics increased This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

In brief from a UBS note on the US dollar. Analysts at the banks are looking for a 1.05 – 1.12 EUR/USD range in 2025, but don’t discount dips under 1.05. Froecast 1.12 at the end of 2025. UBS say that investor expectations of US tax cuts and tariffs aimed at boosting US manufacturing are

People’s Bank of China USD/CNY reference rate is due around 0115 GMT. The People’s Bank of China (PBOC), China’s central bank, is responsible for setting the daily midpoint of the yuan (also known as renminbi or RMB). The PBOC follows a managed floating exchange rate system that allows the value of the yuan to fluctuate

Bank of Japan Governor Ueda spoke , earlier summary post is here: Bank of Japan Governor Ueda says economy recovering moderately, some weak signs USD/JPY spiked: USD/JPY volatile on Bank of Japan Governor Ueda speech And USD/JPY is adding to its gains now: More, these Headlines via Reuters: Japan’s economy recovering moderately albeit some weak

Higher PPI (Wholesale level prices) in New Zealand in the third quarter of 2024. New Zealand dollar up a touch (barely) on the data. The Reserve Bank of New Zealand is in a cutting cycle and higher price indications will not be welcome. Earlier from New Zealand: New Zealand services PMI (October) 46.0 (prior 45.7)

We have had data from Japan this morning, disappointing: Japan Machinery orders for September 2024: -0.7% m/m (expected +1.9%) If you think economic developments in Japan are arguing against Bank of Japan interest rate rises, as are political pressures, I’d be agreeing with you. But, listen out for what Bank of Japan Governor Ueda has

Good morning, afternoon and evening all. Any charts, technical analysis, trade ideas, thoughts, views, ForexLive traders would like to share and discuss with fellow ForexLive traders, please do so: This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

more to come Yen traders will want to take note of Bank of Japan Governor Ueda today. He will be in Nagoya to deliver deliver a speech and take questions from business executives. His speech is from 10am local time on Monday 0100 GMT (Monday), 2000 US Eastern time (Sunday) Q&A follows at 1.45 pm

New Zealand’s services sector PMI from the BNZ – BusinessNZ Performance of Services Index (PSI) for October 2024: 46.0 prior 45.7still in contraction and well under the average of 53.1 over the history of the survey BNZ’s Senior Economist Doug Steel comment: “although it is contracting at a much slower pace than it was in

Is META stock a Buy? It is a Buy BUT not yet. Let me explain. Meta Platforms, Inc. (META) remains one of the most popular and closely watched stocks on the market, known for its innovation and dominance in the tech space. But with META trading near its all-time highs earlier this year, many investors

UPCOMING EVENTS: Monday: US NAHB Housing Market Index.Tuesday: RBA Meeting Minutes, Canada CPI, US Housing Starts and Building Permits.Wednesday: PBoC LPR, UK CPI, Eurozone Wage Growth.Thursday: Canada PPI, US Jobless Claims.Friday: Australia/Japan/EU/UK/US Flash PMIs, Japan CPI, UK Retail Sales, Canada Retail Sales. Tuesday The Canadia CPI Y/Y is expected at 1.9% vs. 1.6% prior, while

Mon: G20 (Brazil)Tue: NBH Policy Announcement; RBA Minutes (Nov); EZ Indicator of Negotiated Wage Rates (Q3), EZ HICP (Final), US Building Permits/Housing Starts (Oct), Canadian CPI (Oct)Wed: UK CPI (Oct), German PPI (Oct)Thu: CBRT & SARB Policy Announcements; UK PSNB (Oct), US Initial Jobless Claims (w/e 16th Nov), Philadelphia Fed (Nov), Existing Home Sales (Oct),

There is movement at the Federal Reserve, as indicated by Powell on Thursday, when he could get word in on policy: Fed’s Powell: Economy isn’t sending signals that we need to be in a hurry to cutthe interviewer is asking non-stop political questions. Powell basically had to straighten her out Goolsbee spoke on Friday: Fed’s

Here is the problem with OPEC — they’re too optimistic about demand. At this time last year, they forecast world oil demand would rise to 104.36 million barrels per day this year. It was in stark contrast to the IEA at 102.78 mbpd and EIA at 102.34 mbpd. Skip ahead to now: OPEC 102.8 mbpdIEA

Credit Agricole argues that despite similarities, 2025 will not be a redux of the USD’s 2018 rally driven by Trump-era policies. Differences in economic conditions, monetary policy, and the USD’s current strength suggest that the dynamics underpinning the dollar’s movement will differ significantly from 2018. Key Points: Divergent Economic and Monetary Conditions: In 2018, strong

Until today, USD/JPY had rallied every day this week in impressive fashion. However after some tough talk from the finance minister today, there is some heavy selling. The pair is now down 201 pips to 154.23 as it’s now cut through Wednesday’s low. I hesitate to put too much of the blame on the drop

Bitcoin is closing out a great week on a positive note. It briefly fell below $88K in US trading but has been steadily bid since and particularly in the past hour. It’s now up 3.3% on the day to $91,200 and that’s coincided with a modest rebound in risk appetite more broadly. This article was

The shine of the election has run into uncertainty about tariffs and elevated P/Es. Pretty much all the gains after the open on post-election morning are now gone and the S&P 500 is now threatening the opening gap while the Nasdaq has already taken a decent bite. Trump’s cabinet picks are leaning heavily on “promises

I hope and expect that in Q1, inflation will come downPricing power is more limitedI am still seeing progress on inflationWe are a long way from knowing what will happen with tariffs This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

Everything is always on the policy tableAsked about a Dec cut, said he doesn’t like to tie his hands before dataWe are going to be looking at rate cuts along the lines of the Sept Fed projectionsRecent inflation has been higher than target, if that’s extended then it’s too highNot a lot has changed in

US October retail sales control group -0.1% vs +0.3% expectedUS November Empire Fed manufacturing survey +31.2 vs -0.7 expectedUS October industrial production -0.3% vs -0.3% expectedUS September business inventories +0.1% vs +0.2% expectedUS October import prices YoY 0.8% vs -0.1% priorCanada Sept wholesale sales +0.8% vs +0.9% expectedFed’s Barkin: I always have expected core PCE

US equities are making new lows but bonds have turned around. Ten-year Treasury yields touched the highest since May earlier today at 4.50% but have since turned around and are now down 1.6 bps on the day to 4.40%. That’s a solid rejection but the next hurdle is yesterday’s low. A drop below that would

Williams doesn’t often shy away from a microphone or opportunity to weigh in but the event was about 100 years at the NY Fed and he stuck to that. This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

Japan’s Nikkei 225 index is opening up 0.55% at 38749.56. For the trading week, the Nikkei 225 index is down -1.75% after rising 3.8% last week This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

It’s still very early for Q4 GDP estimates but the Atlanta Fed is at 2.5%, unchanged compared to the prior update. “An increase in the nowcast of fourth-quarter real personal consumption expenditures growth was offset by a decrease in the nowcast of fourth-quarter real gross private domestic investment growth,” the report said. This article was

Goldman Sachs anticipates October core retail sales to grow by 0.3%, in line with consensus, driven by robust card spending. Headline retail sales are forecasted to increase by 0.4%, with lower gasoline prices partially offset by higher auto sales. Key Points: Core Retail Sales Forecast: Core retail sales are expected to increase by 0.3%, reflecting

This is a lower-tier indicator but something the Bank of Canada is watching. Despite rate cuts, lending conditions worsened in Q3. They may also be concerned that rising yields could further impair lending in Q4. A problem for Canada (and many other countries) is that the Federal Reserve and US Treasury market does a big

The US dollar is under some broadening pressure. It could be an unwind of fixing flows but it’s something worth watching, particularly as Treasury yields come back down. Here is a look at AUD/USD, which at times has been a forerunner of risk appetite. The biggest move on the day has been USD/JPY, which is

A Wall Street Journal report says Trump is tiring of a “cold war” between Howard Lutnick and Scott Bessent for the job as Treasury Secretary and is now looking at others. One is TV personality Larry Kudlow, who was director of the National Economic Council for the latter half of Trump’s first term. The report

At 10:30 am ET, she’s slated to be on Bloomberg TV. This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

Retail sales are are the highlight of the day as we wind down a busy week with a handful of notable releases. The top one comes early with the 8:30 am ET (1330 GMT) release of US retail sales. The headline consensus is +0.3% but eyes are on the control group, which is also forecast

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Fundamental Overview Gold is pulling back a bit now after an almost 8% selloff since the US election day. The market didn’t react hawkishly after another hot US PPI report and an acknowledgement from Fed Chair Powell that they can proceed carefully on rate cuts. The market might be fine with just two rate cuts

Japans finance minister Kato: Will take appropriate action versus excessive FX movesone-sided, sharp moves seen in FX market.Important for FX rates to move stably reflecting fundamentals.Government will scrutinize FX market with very high vigilance including speculative moves. This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

Get the cowboy hats out, the Fed chairman is in Dallas. He is speaking to the regional Chamber of Commerce and will take questions after his speech. This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

Prior was +0.3%Retail inventories ex-autos +0.2% vs +0.1% prior This is a low tier indicator but it will be a drag on GDP. This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

Is this where the train stops for the dollar? The post-election run higher has been without much pause but finally we might be getting that today. The greenback is down across the board, retracing just a slight bit of the gains from this week. USD/JPY is the biggest loser, down 0.6% to 155.33 currently. However,

Geopolitics: Isreal wishes deeper into Lebanon in widening war campaignJapan revised industrial production for September 1.6% versus 1.4% estimateGoldman: Forecasts BOC to cut rates by 50 basis points December (up from 25 basis points)Japan sells JPY 1.75 trillion of 5year JGBs at a average yield of 0.706% (vs 0.562% last)China’s stats Bureau : “Domestic demand

The pace and extent of reduction will depend on dataDevelopments remain consistent with a consumption-led recoveryWhether the recovery will firm up remains to be confirmedWe should not be more restrictive than what is necessary to ensure timely convergence of inflation to targetIt could be self-defeating to tolerate an economy running persistently below potential as an

European stocks were very strong yesterday in what looked like it could be a reversal but the bears returned today and left indexes lower on the week. On the day: Stoxx 600 -0.8%German DAX -0.1%France CAC -0.5%UK FTSE 100 -0.2%Spain IBEX +0.7%Italy’s FTSE MIB -0.5% On the week: Stoxx 600 -0.7%German DAX flatFrance CAC -0.9%UK

Sector Overview Today’s stock market snapshot reveals a challenging day for several key sectors, particularly technology and consumer cyclical. The technology sector is under pressure, showing declines across major players such as Microsoft (MSFT) down 1.27%, Adobe (ADBE) slipping by 1.63%, and Salesforce (CRM) dropping 1.20%. The volatility in semiconductors is notable, with heavyweights like

Fundamental Overview The US Dollar yesterday weakened across the board despite a higher than expected US Core PPI and Fed Chair Powell acknowledging the need to proceed more carefully with rate cuts from here on. This might be a signal that the market could be fine with just two rate cuts priced in for 2025

Prior +1.1%HICP +1.6% vs +1.5% y/y prelimPrior +1.4% Core annual inflation was unchanged, seen at 1.4% in October. So, that’s at least one bright spot for the ECB although it is still relatively high and sticky in the likes of Germany. This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

All China Oct New Home Prices: -5.9% YoY (Sept -5.8%)All China Oct New Home Prices: -0.5% MoM (Sept -0.7%) Regionally: China Oct Shenzhen New Home Prices: -8.1% YoY (Sept -8.6%)China Oct Shenzhen New Home Prices: +0.1% MoM (Sept -1.0%)China Oct Guangzhou New Home Prices: -10.4% YoY (Sept -10.3%)China Oct Guangzhou New Home Prices: -0.7% MoM

A report today showed that Russia cut off natural gas exports to Austria and European gas prices spiked. There could be some arm twisting there aimed to get Europe on board with an end to the war. Putin talked with Scholz today and reports say the Russian leader said possible agreements on Ukraine should take

It’s a tough day to make money. The S&P 500 is down 55 points, or 1.0% and trading near a session low. It’s a continuation of the selloff that started yesterday on a less-dovish Powell. The market is now pricing just a 57% chance of a December cut, down from 85% at the start of

We for sure should watch long rates Fed has to figure out why 10-year is rising and keep an eye on long ratesThis 12-18 month timeline is very interesting as it sounds like a much slower process.I don’t think we’re at neutral nowCore PCE is still too highIf there is disagreement over the neutral rate,

I’ve been pounding the table for awhile on USD/CAD longs and it’s all come together in the past two months, with a one-way move up through a series of highs in the 1.3950 range. Now the pair has clearly broken out and it’s due to a soft Canadian economy and a surprisingly strong one in

Good morning, afternoon and evening all. TGIF to all as well. Eamonn is off today, but that does not mean traditions have to be abandoned. So if there are any charts, technical analysis, trade ideas, thoughts, views, ForexLive traders would like to share and discuss with fellow ForexLive traders, please do so in the comments.

Fundamental Overview The S&P 500 rallied into a new all-time high following Trump’s victory and the red sweep as the market started to look forward to bullish drivers like tax cuts and deregulation. The only bearish reason people were looking at was the rise in Treasury yields. That’s generally bearish only when the Fed is

Prior control group was +0.7% (revised to +1.2%)Headline retail sales +0.4% versus +0.3% expectedPrior m/m sales +0.1% (revised to +0.8%)Retail sales $718.9 billion versus $714.4 billion priorRetail sales y/y +2.8% versus +1.7% priorEx autos +0.1% versus +0.3% expectedPrior ex autos +0.5% prior (revised to +1.0%)Ex autos and gas +0.1% versus +0.7% prior The US consumer

Economy is in a very good place right nowNo preset path for monetary policyWon’t take a December easing off the tableWhat’s really elevated is shelter inflation, I’m not seeing evidence of new price pressuresI think it’s important to stay the courseDoesn’t see a big urgency to lower rates but wants to preserve a healthy economyThere

Prior was -11.9 Six Month Forward-Looking Indicators This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

Prior month 0.7%GDP QoQ 3Q 0.2% vs 0.2% estimateGDP Annualized 0.9% vs 0.7% estimateAnnualize last quarter 2.9%Capital expenditures -0.2% versus -0.2% expected. Previous quarter +0.8%.Private consumption preliminary 0.9% versus 0.2% expected. Previous quarter 0.9%.External demand -0.4% versus expected 0.1%. Previous quarter -0.1%. The USDJPY is trading to new highs after the data and lose closer

Headlines: Dollar holds lower ahead of retail sales dataGold Technical Analysis – The correction looks to be over for nowS&P 500 Technical Analysis – Another great dip-buying opportunity?Fed’s Collins: December rate cut is certainly on the table but not a done dealGermany October wholesale price index +0.4% vs -0.3% m/m priorFrance October final CPI +1.2%

Pres. Elect Trump has picked Robert F. Kennedy Jr as Secretary of Health and Human Services. In his tweet: I wonder if McDonalds will get an exemption? ; ) RFK Jr. is anti vaccine and does not support fluoride in water. Trump did say that he would let RFK Jr. “go wild on health” who

Prior was -0.6%Manufacturing sales -0.5% vs -0.8% expected This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

Prior was -0.4% (revised to -0.5%)Capacity utilization 77.1% 77.2% expectedPrior utilization 77.4% There are two poor readings in a row but today’s Empire Fed was very strong and that may highlight a return to growth in the months ahead. This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

Semi-annual currency report found no major U.S. trading partners manipulated currency to gain unfair trade advantage in four quarters through June 2024. No major trading partners met all three criteria for enhanced analysis during the review period.Monitoring list of trading partners whose currency practices “merit close attention” includes China, Japan, South Korea, Singapore, Taiwan, Vietnam,

Prior month 3.2%Retail sales 4.8% versus 3.8% expected This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

There is more data that we will see between now and DecemberHave to continue to weigh what makes senseFed could eventually slow down pace of rate cuts but too soon to say if it will be in DecemberFed policy is restrictiveDon’t see evidence of new price pressuresFull transcript (may be gated) After Powell’s comments yesterday,

Japan sold JPY 1.75 trillion of 5-year JGBs Yield 0.706% versus 0.562% last monthBid to cover: 3.81X vs 3.73X last monthTail in price 0.02 vs prev 0.03 A mixed auction result, but not bad. This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

Prior month import prices YoY -0.1%US import prices MoM 0.3% vs -0.1% expected and-0.4% priorUS export prices MoM 0.8% vs -0.1% expected and -0.6% priorUS export prices YoY -0.1% vs -2.1% prior This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at www.forexlive.com.

The price of the NZDUSD moved below a swing area of lows going back to 2023 between 0.58488 and 0.58592. That area encompassed the last five swing lows going back to November 2023 (see numbered circles on the chart above). Getting below those level was a path to lower level including the swing low from

Sees Eurozone economic growth at 0.8% in 2024, 1.3% in 2025, and 1.6% in 2026Sees Eurozone inflation at 2.4% in 2024, 2.1% in 2025, and 1.9% in 2026 Of note, they are forecasting the German economy to contract by 0.1% this year as compared to their previous forecast of 0.1% growth in the spring. Meanwhile,

In more geopolitical news: Meeting: Elon Musk met with Iran’s U.N. Ambassador Amir Saeid Iravani in New York to discuss defusing U.S.-Iran tensions.Session Details: The meeting lasted over an hour, was held in a secret location, and was described as “positive” by two anonymous Iranian officials.Trump Transition: Musk is a close adviser to President-elect Trump,

Fundamental Overview The Nasdaq rallied into a new all-time high following Trump’s victory and the red sweep as the market started to look forward to bullish drivers like tax cuts and deregulation. The only bearish reason people were looking at was the rise in Treasury yields. That’s generally bearish only when the Fed is tightening

Expects modest economic recovery to continue, driven by improving employment and wage environment.Need to carefully monitor downside risk from overseas economies and volatility in financial, capital markets.It’s up to Bank of Japan to decide on monetary policy. This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

The dollar continues to sit in a good spot on the week, though major currencies are very lightly changed thus far. Here’s a snapshot of dollar pairs at the moment, highlighting the narrow ranges and minor moves ahead of European trading. It’s still all about the post-election flows in markets but we’re starting to see

German DAX futures -0.5%French CAC 40 futures -0.7%UK FTSE futures -0.4% This comes after the more negative showing in Wall Street, with US futures also pointing down today. S&P 500 futures are down 0.5% currently with tech shares leading the downside nudge. Nasdaq futures are down 0.7% as we look to get the session underway.

German wholesale prices bounced back in October but on an annual basis are still down 0.8% compared to the same month last year. Most of the drag for the annual estimate comes from lower prices for mineral oil products, down 11.5% year-on-year. This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

There is just one to really take note of on the day, as highlighted in bold. That being for EUR/USD at the pivotal 1.0500 level. As mentioned here, that is a major technical mark for the pair and the expiries today highlights the added interest towards that. If anything, they add another layer that sellers

There was an inevitable pull towards the 1.0500 mark for EUR/USD in trading yesterday. And it did just that with the low touching 1.0495 as sellers tried to give it a go in breaking the key level. They look to be failing on the first try now with price bouncing back up to 1.0565 currently,

The Fed does have obligations to explain itself to public and congressInflation is a social phenomenon, if they believe it will go up, it probably willWe will be careful about changing policy until we have a lot more certaintyWe have time to make assessments on net effects of policy changes before we reactWhen it comes

Prior month 5.4%industrial production 5.3% versus 5.6% estimate This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

Prior +0.7%HICP +1.0% vs +1.0% y/y prelimPrior +0.7% Core annual inflation remains unchanged on the month, seen at 1.8%. So, that is something the ECB can at least be happy about. But again, German inflation is the key sticking point at the moment for the central bank. This article was written by Justin Low at

The gold market was pricing for uncertainty into the US election but when the results were quickly clear, it slumped and has been on the back-foot since. It traded as low as $2537 today in the fifth straight day of declines. It did find some support there with the low nearly matching a set of

Fundamental Overview The US Dollar yesterday weakened across the board despite a higher than expected US Core PPI and Fed Chair Powell acknowledging the need to proceed more carefully with rate cuts from here on. This might be a signal that the market could be fine with just two rate cuts priced in for 2025

The changes among major currencies are light, with narrow ranges largely prevailing for now. The dollar is still sitting in a good spot though, after having pushed higher again in trading yesterday. The mood was helped by Fed chair Powell’s comments that they’re not that much in a hurry to lower rates. USD/JPY is holding

The only notable event for the European session was the UK GDP release. Looking ahead we just have some low tier data points until the start of the American session. That’s when we’ll get the US Retail Sales report which is going to be the main highlight of the day. 13:30 GMT/08:30 ET – US

Discover how to use multi-timeframe analysis to detect profitable trading opportunities across different markets The post The Essential Guide To Multi-Timeframe Analysis appeared first on TradingwithRayner.

China’s Stat Bureau spokesperson: Domestic demand is still insufficientBut also noted major economic indicators recovered markedly in OctoberChina’s consumer expectations improved in OctoberWill consolidate trend in economic recovery Today China’s economic data revealed a slowdown in industrial output growth, which increased by 5.3% year-on-year in October, slightly above September’s 5.4% but below forecasts of 5.6%.

The WSJ is reporting. Israel is expanding its ground operations in southern Lebanon, moving troops into villages farther from the border, raising concerns of a prolonged conflict.Six Israeli soldiers were killed by Hezbollah fighters in one of the deadliest incidents since the operation began.Israel’s initial goal was to clear Hezbollah from the border and dismantle