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PBOC is expected to set the USD/CNY reference rate at 7.2379 – Reuters estimate

People’s Bank of China USD/CNY reference rate is due around 0115 GMT. The People’s Bank of China (PBOC), China’s central bank, is responsible for setting the daily midpoint of the yuan (also known as renminbi or RMB). The PBOC follows a managed floating exchange rate system that allows the value of the yuan to fluctuate […]

PBOC is expected to set the USD/CNY reference rate at 7.2379 – Reuters estimate Read More »

Tech sector and semiconductors shine, healthcare struggles in today’s market mix

📈 Technology and Semiconductor Surge: A Market Overview Today’s market paints a mixed picture with standout performances in the technology and semiconductor sectors. Broadcom (AVGO) leads the pack with an impressive gain of 3.26%, and Nvidia (NVDA) follows with a 1.59% increase, suggesting renewed investor confidence in these industries. 📊 Sector Overview Technology: Microsoft (MSFT)

Tech sector and semiconductors shine, healthcare struggles in today’s market mix Read More »

Oil – private survey of inventory shows headline crude oil build vs. draw expected

Via Twitter: Expectations for change I had seen centred on: Headline crude -0.9 mn barrelsDistillates +1.4 mn bblsGasoline +1.7 mn — This data point is from a privately-conducted survey by the American Petroleum Institute (API). It’s a survey of oil storage facilities and companiesThe official report is due Wednesday morning US time. The two reports

Oil – private survey of inventory shows headline crude oil build vs. draw expected Read More »

How to Choose a Trading Platform as a Broker in 2025

The financial brokerage industry has seen remarkable changes, opening doors for smaller players to challenge the big names in the market. But with growth comes steep competition. To stand out, brokers must leverage advanced trading platforms. This guide is designed to walk you through the key features that define a top-notch trading platform and help

How to Choose a Trading Platform as a Broker in 2025 Read More »

US November CPI data due imminently – ranges of estimates (& why they’re crucial to know)

Due at 8.30 am US Eastern time (1330 GMT): For the full information on this post, why knowing the ranges is important etc, see this I posted earlier during the Asian session: US November CPI data due Wednesday, ranges of estimates (& why they’re crucial to know)Distribution of forecasts for the US CPI **** But,

US November CPI data due imminently – ranges of estimates (& why they’re crucial to know) Read More »

Backpack Exchange and Wallet to Integrate Sui

Backpack, a leading exchange and wallet known for its seamless user experience and versatility across multiple asset classes, will integrate with Sui, the Layer 1 blockchain delivering unparalleled scalability and speed. Backpack Exchange currently serves users from more than 150 countries with $60 billion trading volume since launch a year ago. This partnership between Sui

Backpack Exchange and Wallet to Integrate Sui Read More »

Reports Japan is considering a 4% corporate tax surcharge – to go toward defence spending

Details are sparse – Japan media report. Kyodo. This doesn’t sound like a vote winner. Japanese firms looking at: weak yen pushing up imported raw material and energy costshigher PPI more generallywage demandsweak consumer demandlikely rate hikes And now higher tax? This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

Reports Japan is considering a 4% corporate tax surcharge – to go toward defence spending Read More »

Bank of Canada interest rate decision ahead. What to look for technically.

The Bank of Canada interest rate decision will be announced at 9:45 AM with the expectations of a 50 basis point cut in rates. Adam outlines the fundamental view in his post here: In my video below, I analyze the key technical levels influencing the USDCAD rate decision. With the pair trading near four-year highs

Bank of Canada interest rate decision ahead. What to look for technically. Read More »

OPEC once again makes cuts to its 2024 and 2025 oil demand growth forecasts

2024 world oil demand growth forecast seen at 1.61 mil bpd (previously 1.82 mil bpd)2025 world oil demand growth forecast seen at 1.45 mil bpd (previously 1.54 mil bpd) On the changes, OPEC says that the downgrade for this year owes to more bearish data received in Q3 while the projections for next year relate

OPEC once again makes cuts to its 2024 and 2025 oil demand growth forecasts Read More »

US November CPI data due Wednesday, ranges of estimates (& why they’re crucial to know)

Later today, Wednesday, 11 December, we get the US consumer inflation data for November 2024 due at 1330 GMT, which is 0830 US Eastern time Preview posts are here: Preview: What to expect from Wednesday’s US CPI reportGoldman Sachs: What we expect from the November US CPI reportUS November CPI data due Wednesday, December 11

US November CPI data due Wednesday, ranges of estimates (& why they’re crucial to know) Read More »

ForexLive European FX news wrap: Dollar gains as China looks to reignite currency wars

Headlines: China is considering to allow the yuan to weaken next year as trade risks loom – reportAUD/USD tests the August low as China considers letting the yuan depreciate furtherBOJ reportedly sees little cost to waiting for next rate hikeUSD/JPY sent for a spin but now moving higher as BOJ rate hike odds fadeWhat is

ForexLive European FX news wrap: Dollar gains as China looks to reignite currency wars Read More »

Crypto Market Surge: Bitcoin Inches Toward $100K, Solana Soars over 5% Today

🚀 Crypto Market Comeback: Bulls Are Back in Charge! 🐂 The crypto market is flexing its muscles today, showing a strong rebound that’s got traders buzzing! Bitcoin (BTC) is leading the way, up 1.65% to $98,259.15—just shy of that magical $100K mark. Ethereum (ETH) isn’t slouching either, climbing 2.37% to $3,716.60, while Solana (SOL) is

Crypto Market Surge: Bitcoin Inches Toward $100K, Solana Soars over 5% Today Read More »

What is the distribution of forecasts for the US CPI?

Why it’s important? The ranges of estimates are important in terms of market reaction because when the actual data deviates from the expectations, it creates a surprise effect. Another important input in market’s reaction is the distribution of forecasts. In fact, although we can have a range of estimates, most forecasts might be clustered on

What is the distribution of forecasts for the US CPI? Read More »

The US treasury auctions off $58B of 3-year notes at a high yield of 4.117%

The US Treasury has auctioned $58B of 3 year notes. Wi level at the time of the auction:4.116%High Yield: 4.117%Bid to cover:2.58X vs 6-month average of 2.56XTail 0.1 bps vs the 6 month average of 0.0 bpsDirects (domestic buyers) 20.7% vs 6 month average of 17.1%Indirect (international buyers) 64.2% vs the 6-month average of 66.4%Dealers

The US treasury auctions off $58B of 3-year notes at a high yield of 4.117% Read More »

PBOC sets USD/ CNY mid-point today at 7.1843 (vs. estimate at 7.2379)

The People’s Bank of China set the onshore yuan (CNY) reference rate for the trading session ahead. USD/CNY is the onshore yuan. Its permitted to trade plus or minus 2% from this daily reference rate.CNH is the offshore yuan. USD /CNH has no restrictions on its trading range.A significantly stronger or weaker rate than expected

PBOC sets USD/ CNY mid-point today at 7.1843 (vs. estimate at 7.2379) Read More »

European equities hold slightly lower at the open today

Eurostoxx -0.1%Germany DAX flatFrance CAC 40 -0.1%UK FTSE -0.3%Spain IBEX -1.0%Italy FTSE MIB +0.2% US futures are lightly changed and keeping with a more tentative mood after two days of declines this week. Investors are keeping rather cautious after the extended gains since November. And they will be looking to the inflation data later to

European equities hold slightly lower at the open today Read More »

China is considering to allow the yuan to weaken next year as trade risks loom – report

The report says that China’s top leaders and policymakers are considering to allow the yuan to weaken in 2025 amid the prospects of trade tariffs from US president Trump. The move is said to be an acknowledgement on China’s end that it needs a bigger economic stimulus to combat the threat of Trump’s tariffs. The

China is considering to allow the yuan to weaken next year as trade risks loom – report Read More »

FBS Explores the Rise of Altcoins in 2024 Cryptocurrency Markets

FBS, a leading global broker, highlights the resurgence of alt-season, a phase in the cryptocurrency market characterized by the growing prominence of altcoins. The 2024 alt-season reflects evolving trends in blockchain innovation, with projects like Fetch.ai integrating AI into decentralized applications and Layer 2 solutions like Arbitrum enhancing scalability. Additionally, meme coins such as Dogecoin

FBS Explores the Rise of Altcoins in 2024 Cryptocurrency Markets Read More »

Biden administration to unveil more tariffs in parting gift to China

It is being reported that the US trade representative’s office will later today announce a doubling of tariff on Chinese solar wafers and polysilicon to 50%, with tungsten products also to be slapped with a 25% levy. This as part of Biden’s final efforts to protect US manufacturing from China’s cleantech industry. The new tariffs

Biden administration to unveil more tariffs in parting gift to China Read More »

Report blames BLS leadership for poorly-protected US economic data releases

Earlier this year, the BLS reported that a subset of files were released prior to the April CPI report, leading to a premature move in the Treasury market. Previously, a BLS economys shared undisclosed technical calculations with some ‘super-user’ economists, also leading to market moves. Then in August, the annual non-farm payrolls benchmark revision report

Report blames BLS leadership for poorly-protected US economic data releases Read More »

EURUSD Technical Analysis – The US CPI should get us out of the range

Fundamental Overview The US Dollar continues to consolidate around the highs although it’s stronger against the commodity currencies. In the bigger picture, the market reached the peak in the repricing of interest rates expectations, and it will need stronger reasons to price out the remaining rate cuts for 2025. In fact, despite lots of strong

EURUSD Technical Analysis – The US CPI should get us out of the range Read More »

US November CPI data due Wednesday, December 11 – expected to be higher than in October

In October 2024, the U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) increased by 0.2% from the previous month, marking the fourth consecutive month with this rate of growth. On an annual basis, the CPI rose by 2.6%, up from 2.4% in September. The core CPI, which excludes volatile food and energy prices, also saw a 0.3% month-over-month

US November CPI data due Wednesday, December 11 – expected to be higher than in October Read More »

Forecast for an RBA interest rate cut in Q1 2025 “at the earliest”

The Reserve Bank of Australia left its cash rate unchanged yesterday at 4.35%, its highest in 13 years: ForexLive Asia-Pacific FX news wrap: RBA on hold, less hawkish Reserve Bank of Australia Governor Bullock spoke extensively at her press conference following the Statement, links here: Forexlive European FX news wrap: Choppy price action as the

Forecast for an RBA interest rate cut in Q1 2025 “at the earliest” Read More »

Bitcoin price prediction based on our AI

Bitcoin Futures Analysis: AI-Powered Insights for Investors and Traders Bitcoin futures continue to attract significant attention as traders navigate key levels and market shifts. In this report, we bring you our AI-driven analysis, propietary to ForexLive.com, based on advanced order flow mechanics and volumetric data, offering actionable insights into current and historic price dynamics. Key

Bitcoin price prediction based on our AI Read More »

Citigroup forecasts for the S&P 500: Base case of 6500. Bull case 6900. Bear case 5100.

This from Citi comes via a Dow Jones / Market Watch piece (may be gated) – in brief: Citigroup forecasts modest gains for the S&P 500 with a base case of 6,500, a bull case of 6,900, and a bear case of 5,100.High trailing price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios, at their loftiest levels in 40 years, pose

Citigroup forecasts for the S&P 500: Base case of 6500. Bull case 6900. Bear case 5100. Read More »

RBA’s Hauser: Direct impact of any US tariffs on Australia likely to be limited

Global trade war would hit overall activityBut much depends on how China would reactOur flexible exchange rate and independent monetary policy are powerful shock absorbersImpact on Australian inflation is ambiguous, could move in either directionWill respond in either direction, with force if needed, to meet mandate This just mostly echoes the remarks from Bullock yesterday.

RBA’s Hauser: Direct impact of any US tariffs on Australia likely to be limited Read More »

AUD/USD tests the August low as China considers letting the yuan depreciate further

The low earlier briefly touched 0.6340, which was the lowest the pair has traded since November 2023. For now, the August low of 0.6347 remains the key support point on the daily/weekly chart. If that breaks, it will put into focus the October 2023 lows at around 0.6270-85 next potentially. With the RBA shifting to

AUD/USD tests the August low as China considers letting the yuan depreciate further Read More »

ForexLive Asia-Pacific FX news wrap: Japan ‘wholesale’ inflation highest in 16 months

There are some expectations (minority) of policy change from the MAS in JanuaryIntervention – Indian central bank likely selling US dollars to limit rupee depreciationTaiwan says they will take necessary defence measures re Chinese military activitiesSouth Korean police raiding Presidential office re coupReports Japan is considering a 4% corporate tax surcharge – to go toward

ForexLive Asia-Pacific FX news wrap: Japan ‘wholesale’ inflation highest in 16 months Read More »

Economic calendar in Asia Wednesday, December 11, 2024 – Japan data, RBA speaker

Not on this screenshot is a speech coming up at 6pm Sydney time (0700 GMT, 0200 US Eastern time) Andrew Hauser, Deputy Governor, at the Australian Business Economists Annual Dinner Yesterday we had the Reserve Bank of Australia December policy decision and a press conference from Reserve Bank of Australia Governor Bullock: ForexLive Asia-Pacific FX

Economic calendar in Asia Wednesday, December 11, 2024 – Japan data, RBA speaker Read More »

There are some expectations (minority) of policy change from the MAS in January

The MAS Survey of Professional Forecasters provides a summary of forecasts of Singapore’s key economic indicators by economists and analysts. The survey is conducted quarterly following the release of economic data for the previous quarter by the Ministry of Trade and Industry. Singapore central bank survey indicates the majority foresee no change in monetary policy

There are some expectations (minority) of policy change from the MAS in January Read More »

German chancellor Scholz set to put in request for confidence vote later today

Scholz is widely expected to lose the vote, after having seen his coalition collapse in November. For some context, his government does not command a majority already. The vote is all but a formality to tee up fresh federal elections in Germany. That will happen once Scholz loses the vote and has to dissolve parliament.

German chancellor Scholz set to put in request for confidence vote later today Read More »

HSBC expects EUR/CHF to rise to 0.95 (end 2025 view!)

HSBC analysts on the Swiss franc, forecasting a rise for EUR/.CHF to 0.95 by end-2025: Swissy’s recent price action shows a disconnect with interest-rate differentialsHSBC don’t expect this to persistIncreased political and geopolitical tensions have been a more dominant driver for the franc – it strengthens as a safe-haven “Our conviction is that the SNB’s

HSBC expects EUR/CHF to rise to 0.95 (end 2025 view!) Read More »

Japan November PPI +0.3% m/m (expected +0.2%) and +3.7% y/y (expected +3.4%)

Japan Producer Prices, also known as Corporate Goods Price Index for November 2024. more to come — The Producer Price Index (PPI) in Japan is also known as the Corporate Goods Price Index (CGPI) its a measure of the average change over time in the selling prices received by domestic producers for their outputis calculated

Japan November PPI +0.3% m/m (expected +0.2%) and +3.7% y/y (expected +3.4%) Read More »

Japan’s Q4 Business Outlook Survey presents a mixed bag of results

Japan’s latest Business Outlook Survey, for Q4 2024, has been published. The TL;DR is: Large corporations continue to see modest positive sentiment, but the outlook is gradually softening. Small corporations remain under pressure, with persistent pessimism and labor shortages. Growth in non-manufacturing is outpacing manufacturing, with profitability challenges evident for the latter. Investment remains a

Japan’s Q4 Business Outlook Survey presents a mixed bag of results Read More »

Japan PPI inflation data recap – persistent rise keeps focus on BoJ rate hike speculation

The data is here from earlier: Japan November PPI +0.3% m/m (expected +0.2%) and +3.7% y/y (expected +3.4%) Recapping the report, and adding more: November Wholesale Inflation: Accelerated to 3.7% year-on-year, exceeding the forecast of 3.4%, marking the third consecutive month of increase.Corporate Goods Price Index (CGPI): Climbed to 124.3, its highest level on record,

Japan PPI inflation data recap – persistent rise keeps focus on BoJ rate hike speculation Read More »

Reuters Tankan – Japan manufacturing sentiment negative for the first time in 10 months

Reuters Tankan report for December 2024, in summary: Manufacturers’ Sentiment Turns Negative: December index fell to -1, down from +5 in November, marking the first negative reading in 10 months.Non-Manufacturers’ Sentiment Improves: Index rose to +30 in December, up from +19 in November, with further improvement to +32 expected in March.Outlook for Improvement: Manufacturers’ sentiment

Reuters Tankan – Japan manufacturing sentiment negative for the first time in 10 months Read More »

ANZ recommends selling AUD/CAD, targeting 0.86

This comes via eFX. ANZ recommends selling AUD/CAD, expecting the pair to weaken due to AUD’s greater sensitivity to risk sentiment and trade dislocations, while the negative CAD narrative is already priced in. Key Points: AUD Weakness: Trade Risks: Ongoing US-China trade tensions disproportionately impact AUD due to its higher exposure to global risk sentiment.Risk

ANZ recommends selling AUD/CAD, targeting 0.86 Read More »

Forexlive Americas FX news wrap: USD/JPY rallies for a second day, AUD struggles after RBA

US Q3 unit labor costs +0.8% vs +1.5% expectedUS November NFIB small business optimism index 101.7 vs 94.2 expectedThe US treasury auctions off $58B of 3-year notes at a high yield of 4.117%EIA forecasts global oil production will rise 1.6m bpd in 2025Xi says China will continue to be the biggest enging of world economic

Forexlive Americas FX news wrap: USD/JPY rallies for a second day, AUD struggles after RBA Read More »

Morgan Stanley says the dollar trade is crowded and it’s time to sell

The US dollar has been a strong performer this year and it’s tough to bet against it going forward given the setup for US economic outperformance. That said, it’s clearly a crowded trade and Morgan Stanley’s David Adams thinks it’s too crowded. “Based on our conversations, it seems that consensus has firmly shifted towards a

Morgan Stanley says the dollar trade is crowded and it’s time to sell Read More »

The USDJPY buyers have taken the price above the 200 day MA. Buyers making a play.

The USD/JPY rebounded from an earlier dip in the Asian Pacific session, hitting new weekly highs and testing the 38.2% retracement level at 151.736 in the London morning session. Sellers stalled the pair near that MA coming into the US session with the price trading around 151.52 at the start of the US trading. However,

The USDJPY buyers have taken the price above the 200 day MA. Buyers making a play. Read More »

Australian dollar touches four-month low as the China pop fades and RBA shifts dovishly

The Australian dollar is at the lows of the day, down 67 pips to 0.6370. The drop erases a strong gain yesterday that came on optimism about China stimulus. However the Chinese market slumped today on pessimism that Beijing will actually deliver stronger growth. The US-listed China MCHI ETF is down 4.7% today after climbing

Australian dollar touches four-month low as the China pop fades and RBA shifts dovishly Read More »

USDJPY Technical Analysis – Eyes on the US CPI report

Fundamental Overview The US Dollar continues to consolidate around the highs although it’s stronger against the commodity currencies. In the bigger picture, the market reached the peak in the repricing of interest rates expectations, and it will need stronger reasons to price out the remaining rate cuts for 2025. In fact, despite lots of strong

USDJPY Technical Analysis – Eyes on the US CPI report Read More »

USDCHF Technical Analysis – Key levels ahead of the US CPI and SNB events

Fundamental Overview The US Dollar continues to consolidate around the highs although it’s stronger against the commodity currencies. In the bigger picture, the market reached the peak in the repricing of interest rates expectations, and it will need stronger reasons to price out the remaining rate cuts for 2025. In fact, despite lots of strong

USDCHF Technical Analysis – Key levels ahead of the US CPI and SNB events Read More »

Bitcoin sellers lean against the 200 hour MA.GIves the sellers the go-ahead to push lower.

The price of bitcoin is trading lower with the price now down around -2.7% to $94,700.The low price has reached $94,578. The move lower was foreshadowed by the break and inability to extend back above the broken 200-hour MA at $98244. Buyers turned to sellers. What next? The next target support area comes between $90742

Bitcoin sellers lean against the 200 hour MA.GIves the sellers the go-ahead to push lower. Read More »

Forexlive European FX news wrap: Choppy price action as the US CPI looms

US November NFIB small business optimism index 101.7 vs 94.2 expectedUSD/JPY looks to US CPI report to potentially break ping pong rangeChina shot in the arm already fading away?German engineering body continues to see fall in production for 2025European indices hold slightly lower at the open todayWhat are the main events for today?Eurostoxx futures -0.5%

Forexlive European FX news wrap: Choppy price action as the US CPI looms Read More »

China trade data dribbling out: Jan – Nov exports +5.4% y/y & imports +1.2% y/y

Still awaiting the November alone numbers. January – November exports +5.4% y/y (USD denominated)January -November imports +1.2% y/y (USD denominated) OK, here we go with November month alone data: USD denominated exports +6.7% y/yUS dollar denominated imports -3.9% y/ytrade balance US$ +97.44bn China’s trade surplus with the United States in November reached $34.9 billion, widening

China trade data dribbling out: Jan – Nov exports +5.4% y/y & imports +1.2% y/y Read More »

JP Morgan says crypto had a ‘monumental’ month in November

JP Morgan on crypto last month, “monumental”. highlights from the note: Donald Trump’s reelection triggered a historic rally across crypto marketsNovember’s market cap growth of 45% was the crypto market’s best monthly return. U.S. spot crypto ETFs posted another record month in NovemberU.S. spot exchange-traded products (ETPs) the bank tracks saw record monthly net sales

JP Morgan says crypto had a ‘monumental’ month in November Read More »

The USDCHF has been moving down and up with the buyers making a play today

The USD/CHF has been testing the downside, with attempts to break below the swing area between 0.8772 and 0.8776 on Friday and Monday. Both breaks failed, and rallies were capped at the swing area between 0.8794 and 0.8799. In today’s trading, the pair initially dipped during the Asian-Pacific session, finding support near the lower end

The USDCHF has been moving down and up with the buyers making a play today Read More »

PBOC sets USD/ CNY central rate at 7.1896 (vs. estimate at 7.2806)

The People’s Bank of China set the onshore yuan (CNY) reference rate for the trading session ahead. USD/CNY is the onshore yuan. Its permitted to trade plus or minus 2% from this daily reference rate.CNH is the offshore yuan. USD /CNH has no restrictions on its trading range.A significantly stronger or weaker rate than expected

PBOC sets USD/ CNY central rate at 7.1896 (vs. estimate at 7.2806) Read More »

Mixed signals in the market: Google soars while Oracle dives

Sector Overview The US stock market today is a mosaic of mixed performances across various sectors. Notably, the Technology sector is experiencing significant contrasts. While Google (GOOGL) is making impressive gains at +3.88%, Oracle (ORCL) faces a steep decline of -9.44%. Meanwhile, the Software – Infrastructure components like Microsoft (MSFT) remain relatively stable with a

Mixed signals in the market: Google soars while Oracle dives Read More »

RBA’s Bullock: I don’t know if we’re going to be cutting rates in February

Cannot describe an exact scenario on what may lead to us cutting rates in FebruaryThere are many configurations in the data that might potentially lead us in that directionBut honestly don’t know if there will be a rate cutHave to look at the data and be data drivenWe are watching for things to move in

RBA’s Bullock: I don’t know if we’re going to be cutting rates in February Read More »

Xi says China will continue to be the biggest enging of world economic growth

This isn’t a market moving comment but it advances the debate around what sort of stimulus is coming from China this week. I think the overall negative sentiment around China — particularly in the long term — is way overdone. Yes, the stock market is weak but a good portion of that is because Chinese

Xi says China will continue to be the biggest enging of world economic growth Read More »

RBA’s Bullock: We need to think carefully about where we’re going on policy

Recent economic indicators have been mixedSome data has been a little softer than expectedThis has given the Board some confidence that inflationary pressures are decliningMonetary policy remains restrictive and is working as anticipatedNeed to see more progress on underlying inflation, some price pressures are still remainingWant to bring inflation down without causing a spike in

RBA’s Bullock: We need to think carefully about where we’re going on policy Read More »

Bank of America on the upcoming US CPI report – rally vs. volatilty

Analysts at Bank of America re eyeing ‘two remaining major events’ left for this year, the US CPI report, then the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting: “We believe the two remaining major events of the year (CPI and FOMC) can set the near-term direction of the market.”“A softer print can clear the path for

Bank of America on the upcoming US CPI report – rally vs. volatilty Read More »

Ethereum price prediction – I think it’s still going to $5k but question is from where…

Ethereum Futures forecast For traders and investors seeking strategic entry points, here’s a deep dive into Ethereum’s price action, key support levels, and what lies ahead after last week’s volatile moves. Weekend Recap: Ethereum’s Decline and Key Insights 📉 Ethereum Futures dropped nearly 16% from its recent highs, driven by Bitcoin’s dance around the $100,000

Ethereum price prediction – I think it’s still going to $5k but question is from where… Read More »

Gold climbs for the second day after China’s central bank resumes purchases

Gold is up $30 today to build on a similar-sized gain yesterday. Both gains come on the heels of the People’s Bank of China resuming gold purchases in November for the first time in six months. China is looking to diversify reserves into gold and away from US dollars in what’s expected to be a

Gold climbs for the second day after China’s central bank resumes purchases Read More »

Buyers have the USDCAD at the highest levels since 2020 ahead of the BOC rate decision

The USDCAD is moving higher and trading at the highest level for the year,and going back to 2020. The buyers are in firm control and that comes ahead of the BOC meeting and interest rate decision scheduled for 9:45 AM ET tomorrow. The BOC is expected to cut rates by 50 basis which is helping

Buyers have the USDCAD at the highest levels since 2020 ahead of the BOC rate decision Read More »

German engineering body continues to see fall in production for 2025

Considering the prolonged manufacturing recession in Germany, it’s not too surprising to see it finally hit the labour market. The VDMA expects production in 2025 to decline by 2% in real terms, similar to their previous forecast. As for 2024, they see production falling by 8% in real terms. The body also warns of intensified

German engineering body continues to see fall in production for 2025 Read More »

USDCAD Technical Analysis – Back at the highs ahead of the US CPI

Fundamental Overview The US Dollar continues to consolidate around the highs although it’s stronger against the commodity currencies. In the bigger picture, the market reached the peak in the repricing of interest rates expectations, and it will need stronger reasons to price out the remaining rate cuts for 2025. In fact, despite lots of strong

USDCAD Technical Analysis – Back at the highs ahead of the US CPI Read More »

US November NFIB small business optimism index 101.7 vs 94.2 expected

Prior was 93.7 The NFIB Small Business Optimism Index rose by eight points in November to 101.7, after 34 months of remaining below the 50-year average of 98. This is the highest reading since June 2021. Of the 10 Optimism Index components, nine increased, none decreased, and one was unchanged. Following last month’s record high

US November NFIB small business optimism index 101.7 vs 94.2 expected Read More »

CryptoAutos Announces TGE for $AUTOS Token Following Sold-Out Public Sale

CryptoAutos, the world’s first blockchain-powered luxury automotive marketplace, has announced the Token Generation Event (TGE) for its native utility token, $AUTOS, scheduled for 11th December 2024 at 12 PM UTC. This event represents a significant development in CryptoAutos’ efforts to enhance the ownership and interaction of high-value assets through blockchain technology. $AUTOS will launch at

CryptoAutos Announces TGE for $AUTOS Token Following Sold-Out Public Sale Read More »

Kickstart your trading day. What is moving the markets on June 10, 2024?

As the U.S. and North American trading session begins, broader indices are positive, and U.S. yields are rising, despite Oracle shares falling sharply in premarket trading. The drop comes after the company narrowly missed earnings expectations by a penny and reported slightly lower-than-expected revenue. Oracle’s quarterly profit rose 24% year-over-year to $3.15 billion ($1.10 per

Kickstart your trading day. What is moving the markets on June 10, 2024? Read More »

PBOC is expected to set the USD/CNY reference rate at 7.2806 – Reuters estimate

People’s Bank of China USD/CNY reference rate is due around 0115 GMT. The People’s Bank of China (PBOC), China’s central bank, is responsible for setting the daily midpoint of the yuan (also known as renminbi or RMB). The PBOC follows a managed floating exchange rate system that allows the value of the yuan to fluctuate

PBOC is expected to set the USD/CNY reference rate at 7.2806 – Reuters estimate Read More »

US Dollar mirroring post-election rally; HSBC analysts predict renewed strength

HSBC analysts have noted that the US dollar’s recent movements are closely mirroring its behaviour eight years ago after Trump’s initial presidential election victory. Following the 2016 election, the dollar experienced a sharp rise, paused briefly, and then regained strength in early 2017. The analysts suggest the current rally appears to be on a similar

US Dollar mirroring post-election rally; HSBC analysts predict renewed strength Read More »

Major indices close moderately lower across the board

The major US indices closed moderately lower across the board. Losses for the major averages were -0.54% to -0.67%. Dow industrial average -240.59 points or -0.54% at 44401.93S&P index -30 7431 points or -0.61% at 6052.96NASDAQ index -123.08 points or -0.62% at 19736.69.Russell 2000-16.15 points or -0.67% at 2392.83. After the close, Oracle announced Q3

Major indices close moderately lower across the board Read More »

Goldman Sachs: BOC meeting on Wednesday – Base case and alternative scenario

Goldman Sachs expects the Bank of Canada to deliver a 50bps rate cut at this week’s policy meeting, though they acknowledge a 25bps cut is a credible alternative. Slowing growth, a rising unemployment rate, and a lower-than-expected Q3 GDP print strengthen the case for more aggressive easing. Key Points: Rate Cut Expectations: Base Case: A

Goldman Sachs: BOC meeting on Wednesday – Base case and alternative scenario Read More »

Mandala Chain (Powered by Polkadot) Secures $1 Million in Pre-Seed Funding

Mandala Chain, an L1 dedicated to connecting government, enterprise, and retail in emerging markets, announces the successful closure of its pre-seed funding round, raising $1 million. The round was led by Harbour Industrial Capital, with additional participation from O-DE Capital, NLS Ventures, and strategic Polkadot ecosystem partners. This milestone marks a pivotal step in Mandala

Mandala Chain (Powered by Polkadot) Secures $1 Million in Pre-Seed Funding Read More »

No surprise. Canada Trudeau says Canada will respond if Trump imposes tariffs

Canada PM Trudeau is saying Canada will respond if Trump imposes a 25% tariff. The comment is not really a surprise. The USDCAD bounced off the support (see earlier post) and is stretching back toward the November high and the high seen just earlier today between 1.41744 and 1.4177. This article was written by Greg

No surprise. Canada Trudeau says Canada will respond if Trump imposes tariffs Read More »

Japan’s Economy Minister discusses Q3 GDP data – start of a wage and price cycle

Japan Economy Minister Akazawa was asked about the revised Q3 GDP data: says while Japan has not emerged from deflation, a virtuous cycle of wage hikes and passing-through of prices has begun *** This data was released on Monday, a bit of welcome new for Japan: Japan Q3 Revised GDP +0.3% q/q (prelim was +0.2%)

Japan’s Economy Minister discusses Q3 GDP data – start of a wage and price cycle Read More »

ICYMI – Former Binance CEO says it’s ‘inevitable’ for China to build a BTC reserve

CoinTelegraph had the news earlier, reporting comments from former Binance CEO Changpeng “CZ” Zhao said China would be one of the countries to adopt a strategic Bitcoin reserve, believed “smaller countries” would likely be the first to adopt a Bitcoin BTC reservecould happen slowlyChina’s position on crypto was “harder to predict” given the lack of

ICYMI – Former Binance CEO says it’s ‘inevitable’ for China to build a BTC reserve Read More »

ICYMI – China opened the taps Monday afternoon

I was the sad sack on China yesterday, posting the data indicating the country slipping back towards consumer price deflation: China November CPI +0.2% y/y (expected +0.5%) PPI -2.5% y/y (expected -2.8%)China’s Inflation Data: November Trends and Projections But, with a glimmer of hope perhaps this week: China’s annual central economic work conference is set

ICYMI – China opened the taps Monday afternoon Read More »

Australia’s largest fund manager expects RBA hold today, cut in May

The Reserve Bank of Australia policy statement will be released at 2.30pm Sydney time on Tuesday, December 10, 2024. 0330 GMT / 2230 US Eastern time on MondayReserve Bank of Australia Governor Bullock will hold her press conference an hour later I posted a preview yesterday: Reserve Bank of Australia meeting on Tuesday, December 10,

Australia’s largest fund manager expects RBA hold today, cut in May Read More »

RBA leaves its cash rate unchanged at 4.35%, as expected

Reserve Bank of Australia December 2024 Statement, in brief: Underlying inflation remains too high.The outlook remains uncertain.Board is gaining some confidence that inflationary pressures are declining in line with these recent forecasts, but risks remain.Board will continue to rely upon the data and the evolving assessment of risks to guide its decisions.While underlying inflation is

RBA leaves its cash rate unchanged at 4.35%, as expected Read More »

Forexlive Americas FX news wrap for 9 Dec: The USD mixed to start the new week.Stock lower

Reserve Bank of Australia monetary policy Statement due today – what to watchMajor indices close moderately lower across the boardNo surprise. Canada Trudeau says Canada will respond if Trump imposes tariffsCrude oil settles at $68.37Atlanta Fed GDPNow growth estimate for 4Q remains at a robust 3.3%Goldman Sachs: BOC meeting on Wednesday – Base case and

Forexlive Americas FX news wrap for 9 Dec: The USD mixed to start the new week.Stock lower Read More »

Reserve Bank of Australia monetary policy Statement due today – what to watch

The Reserve Bank of Australia policy statement will be released at 2.30pm Sydney time on Tuesday, December 10, 2024. 0330 GMT / 2230 US Eastern time on MondayReserve Bank of Australia Governor Bullock will hold her press conference an hour later According to the Bloomberg survey of analysts the Bank is expected to leave its

Reserve Bank of Australia monetary policy Statement due today – what to watch Read More »

Australian November business confidence and conditions coming up at the bottom of the hour

While there is no survey of expectations for this report, the October data was improved. The National Australia Bank (NAB) business survey revealed a notable increase in business confidence, reaching its highest level since early 2023. The business confidence index rose by 7 points to +5, while business conditions remained steady at +7 index points.

Australian November business confidence and conditions coming up at the bottom of the hour Read More »

RBA’s Bullock: We did not explicitly consider an interest rate cut today

We looked at what we found since the previous meetingAnd used that to ask the question whether the current policy stance is appropriate or notThe discussion was mostly about the economic changes and the impact on inflationWe have done some scenario analysis on potential Trump policy changesIt depends on what he says he will do

RBA’s Bullock: We did not explicitly consider an interest rate cut today Read More »

Atlanta Fed GDPNow growth estimate for 4Q remains at a robust 3.3%

The Atlanta Fed GDPNow growth estimate for 4Q remains at 3.3%. In their own words: The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the fourth quarter of 2024 is 3.3 percent on December 9, unchanged from December 5 after rounding. After recent releases from the US Census Bureau and the

Atlanta Fed GDPNow growth estimate for 4Q remains at a robust 3.3% Read More »

China Xi holding meetings with ‘heads of major international economic organizations’ today

China Xi holding meetings with ‘heads of major international economic organizations’ this morning China announced a ramp up of economic support yesterday, links in the post below to the details: ICYMI – China opened the taps Monday afternoonn This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

China Xi holding meetings with ‘heads of major international economic organizations’ today Read More »

Fed Expected to Cut Rates in December and January: RBC Analysis

RBC preview the December 17-18 Federal Reserve Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting, expecting a 25bp rate cut at this meeting and then again at the January 31-February 1 2025, meeting pace of easing has already slowedrecent communications from Fed speakers continue to hint at further but smaller rate cuts After the February rate cut

Fed Expected to Cut Rates in December and January: RBC Analysis Read More »

Economic calendar in Asia 10 December 2024 – Chinese trade data + RBA policy decision

I posted a preview of the Reserve Bank of Australia yesterday. The TL;DR is watch the statement: Reserve Bank of Australia meeting on Tuesday, December 10, 2024 – Statement/Bullock focus As for China … sheesh … slipping back towards CPI deflation, PPI has been deflating for 26 months in a row: China November CPI +0.2%

Economic calendar in Asia 10 December 2024 – Chinese trade data + RBA policy decision Read More »

South Korea says will respond to excess volatility with stabilizing measures

South Korean finance ministry: recent market volatility is a bit excessivewill respond with market stabilising measures Financial markets in South Korea have been tumultuous after last week’s coup/cancelled coup. Monday’s developments: South Korea’s benchmark equity index has fallen to its lowest since late April 2020South Korea to announce measures to improve FX liquidity by end

South Korea says will respond to excess volatility with stabilizing measures Read More »

Australian Consumer Confidence slumps nearly 3 points in a week

The weekly ANZ-Roy Morgan Australian Consumer Confidence survey came in at 85.5 prior week was 88.4 A big drop from deeply pessimistic to even more deeply pessimistic! Under 100 is net pessimism. ANZ remarks on the fall: ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence fell 2.9pts after Q3 GDP and the end of Black Friday sales. All subindices

Australian Consumer Confidence slumps nearly 3 points in a week Read More »

China cutting off drone supplies critical to Ukraine defense

Drone manufacturers in China recently began limiting sales to the US and Europe of key components used to build unmanned aerial vehicles, according Bloomberg sources. That’s a pretty strong sign that Beijing won’t be leaning on Moscow to end the war. Meanwhile, after meeting with Zelensky on the weekend Trump said he was actively working

China cutting off drone supplies critical to Ukraine defense Read More »

PBOC sets USD/ CNY reference rate for today at 7.1870 (vs. estimate at 7.2627)

The People’s Bank of China set the onshore yuan (CNY) reference rate for the trading session ahead. USD/CNY is the onshore yuan. Its permitted to trade plus or minus 2% from this daily reference rate.CNH is the offshore yuan. USD /CNH has no restrictions on its trading range.A significantly stronger or weaker rate than expected

PBOC sets USD/ CNY reference rate for today at 7.1870 (vs. estimate at 7.2627) Read More »

Treasury yields higher as China turns on the taps but bonds skeptical

There is a reflationary impulse from China from today’s shift in tone on monetary and fiscal policy but the Treasury market isn’t fully embracing it. Yields are up 2-3 bps across the curve and that’s despite several auctions on the docket this week. Now some of that may reflect the current reality after today’s China

Treasury yields higher as China turns on the taps but bonds skeptical Read More »

New York Fed survey of consumers: One-year inflation expectations 3.0% vs 2.9% prior

Prior one-year inflation expectations 2.9% (a four-year low)Three-year inflation expectations 2.6% vs 2.5% priorFive-year inflation expectations 2.9% vs 2.8% prior Other statistics: Current household financial situation perceptions steadyRespondents sharply cut expectations of future government borrowingMean unemployment expectations—or the mean probability that the U.S. unemployment rate will be higher one year from now—ticked up by 0.5

New York Fed survey of consumers: One-year inflation expectations 3.0% vs 2.9% prior Read More »

New York Times reports that Israeli ground forces have crossed into Syria’s territory

NYT reports that Israeli ground forces have crossed into Syria’s territory for the first time since the 1973 October War. This is getting some attention across media. I’d seen similar reports almost 24 hours ago so I am not sure this fresh breaking news. Reports I’d seen over the weekend were that Israel Defense Forces

New York Times reports that Israeli ground forces have crossed into Syria’s territory Read More »

Pepeto and Pepe Unchained Compete for Dominance in the Next Memecoin Era

Pepeto has captured the crypto community’s attention with its compelling story and utility. Currently priced at just $0.000000096, Pepeto offers an affordable entry point, with five days left in its current presale stage. Pepeto has also teased major upcoming announcements, further fueling speculation and interest. Its combination of narrative-driven appeal, advanced utilities like a cross-chain

Pepeto and Pepe Unchained Compete for Dominance in the Next Memecoin Era Read More »

USDCHF makes a break for it. Falls below 200 hour MA and finds sellers.

The USD/CHF pair moved higher during the Asian-Pacific session, briefly breaking above a key swing area between 0.8794 and 0.87995 (rounded to 0.8800). The high of the day reached 0.88035 before reversing to the downside. The failure to sustain momentum above 0.8800 triggered a move lower, with the price retesting the 200-bar moving average on

USDCHF makes a break for it. Falls below 200 hour MA and finds sellers. Read More »

South Korean Finance Minister vows bold and swift measures to address financial mkt swings

South Korean Finance Minister Choi Sang-mok released a join statement with economy-related ministers on Sunday. The meeting was held in the aftermath of President Yoon Suk Yeol’s brief declaration of martial law Tuesday. “The government will mobilize all resources available in accordance with contingency plans and take bold and swift measures, if necessary” “We have

South Korean Finance Minister vows bold and swift measures to address financial mkt swings Read More »

US employment trends 109.55 vs 107.66 prior

Prior was 107.66 (revised to 108.25)Jobs hard-to-get 15.2% vs 17.6% priorFirms reporting unfilled positions rose for second straight monthJob openings rebounded from September’s post-pandemic lowIndustrial production and manufacturing/trade sales increasedInvoluntary part-time work declined for fourth straight month “The ETI rose again in November, marking consecutive monthly gains for the first time in 2024,” said Mitchell

US employment trends 109.55 vs 107.66 prior Read More »

Some high-flying stocks are being sold down with Nvidia leading the way

Some of the highest-flying stocks are being hit by a round of profit taking to start the week. There were positive opens in some of the stocks but that’s been followed up by steady selling that now has the Nasdaq down 0.8%. NVDA -3.5% on Chinese anti-monopoly investigationSHOP -3.1%META -2.6%TSLA -2.0% (after opening at a

Some high-flying stocks are being sold down with Nvidia leading the way Read More »

US wholesale inventories 0.2% vs 0.2% estimate

Prior month 0.2%Wholesale inventories 0.2% versus 0.2% estimateTotal inventories were up 0.9 percent from the revised October 2023 level YoY.Wholesale sales -0.1% versus 0.5% last month (revised from 0.3%). Wholesale sales were up 0.9% from October 2023 YoY. The October inventories/sales 1.34. The October 2023 ratio was the same at 1.34. Looking at the inventory

US wholesale inventories 0.2% vs 0.2% estimate Read More »

ForexLive European FX news wrap: Aussie buoyed as China vows to ramp up stimulus next year

Headlines: China’s Politburo says will implement a more moderately loose monetary policyChina president Xi: We must be fully prepared to achieve next year’s economic targetsChina promise for even bigger easing lifts risk sentimentWeekly update on interest rate expectationsSNB total sight deposits w.e. 6 December CHF 458.8 bn vs CHF 458.9 bn priorEurozone December Sentix investor

ForexLive European FX news wrap: Aussie buoyed as China vows to ramp up stimulus next year Read More »

South Korea’s benchmark equity index has fallen to its lowest since late April 2020

Political turmoil in South Korea is adding to the weights on South Korea equities. Earlier: South Korean Finance Minister vows bold and swift measures to address financial mkt swings South Korea to announce measures to improve FX liquidity by end of year This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

South Korea’s benchmark equity index has fallen to its lowest since late April 2020 Read More »

Buyers are making a play in the AUDUSD today with a bounce away from support on daily

The AUDUSD buyers are making a play today with a bounce away from support on the daily chart. The move to the upside has taken the pair above a swing area between 0.6433 and 0.64419 and also above the 100 hour MA at 0.6433. That area will now be risk-defining level for buyers looking for

Buyers are making a play in the AUDUSD today with a bounce away from support on daily Read More »

China’s Politburo says will implement a more moderately loose monetary policy

Will implement more proactive fiscal policy and moderately loose monetary policyTo enrich and improve policy toolboxMust expand domestic demand in all directionsMust vigorously boost consumptionTo expand opening up to the outside world, stabilise foreign trade and investmentWill step up “unconventional” counter-cyclical adjustmentsWill enhance support to improve people’s livelihoodsTo stablise property and stock markets The big

China’s Politburo says will implement a more moderately loose monetary policy Read More »

Tech pressures: Nvidia tumbles, Tesla revs up gains

🔍 Stock Market Snapshot Today’s stock market paints a mixed picture, with significant fluctuations across various sectors. While some technology giants face pressure, the automotive industry shows promising gains. 📉 Semiconductor Struggles: Nvidia Leads the Decline Semiconductors are seeing a harsh downturn today, notably with Nvidia (NVDA) plummeting by 3.14%. This decline reflects investor caution

Tech pressures: Nvidia tumbles, Tesla revs up gains Read More »

BOE’s Ramsden: Calmer markets this year could lead to greater risk-taking in the future

Comparatively calmer market conditions of this year could lead to greater risk-taking in the futureWe must continue to be vigilant in light of increasing uncertainty around the outlookWe should monitor and assess risks in UK financial markets, and utilize our balance sheet when it is appropriate to do soGilt markets continue to function in an

BOE’s Ramsden: Calmer markets this year could lead to greater risk-taking in the future Read More »

Hang Seng Index Technical Analysis – China is going all in

Fundamental Overview The Chinese Politburo announced that it will adopt a “moderately loose” strategy for monetary policy for 2025, which marked the first major shift in stance since 2011. Moreover, the language around fiscal policy was stepped up to “more proactive” from just “proactive” in another sign that Chinese officials intend to ease policies more

Hang Seng Index Technical Analysis – China is going all in Read More »

Reports that Amazon shareholders propose adding Bitcoin to balance sheet

There are some reportsa about that Amazon shareholders have proposed that the company explore adding Bitcoin to its balance sheet as a strategy to hedge against inflation. This request aligns with a broader trend among major corporations, such as Microsoft and Tesla, which are evaluating Bitcoin as a potential asset to safeguard value and enhance

Reports that Amazon shareholders propose adding Bitcoin to balance sheet Read More »

60% of FX price changes occurred within the first minute of an economic release

This is an interesting piece from Finance Magnates (good buddies of ForexLive!), it examines FX Market Reactions to Key Economic Events: focus on Federal Reserve meetings, NFP releases, and CPI announcementsusing high-frequency data to analyze millisecond-level price changes The report highlights the speed of price movements. It shows that 60% of price changes within an

60% of FX price changes occurred within the first minute of an economic release Read More »

Reserve Bank of Australia meeting on Tuesday, December 10, 2024 – Statement/Bullock focus

The Reserve Bank of Australia policy statement will be released at 2.30pm Sydney time on Tuesday, December 10, 2024. 0330 GMT / 2230 US Eastern time on MondayReserve Bank of Australia Governor Bullock will hold her press conference an hour later According to the Bloomberg survey of analysts the unanimous expectations os for the cash

Reserve Bank of Australia meeting on Tuesday, December 10, 2024 – Statement/Bullock focus Read More »

Bitrue crypto exchange has partnered with Babylon Labs

Bitrue crypto exchange has partnered with Babylon Labs to launch a brand new dual rewards program for Bitcoin staking today. According to the official announcement shared with Forexlive, this dual rewards program will provide multiple ways for long term BTC holders to leverage their current holdings to maximize their earnings. Users will be able to

Bitrue crypto exchange has partnered with Babylon Labs Read More »

China November CPI +0.2% y/y (expected +0.5%) PPI -2.5% y/y (expected -2.8%)

Chinese inflation data for November 2024 Consumer Price Index once again flirting with deflation. +0.2% y/y (slowest in 5 months) vs. +0.5% expected and down from +0.3% in October. the m/m is worse, +0.6% (expected -0.4%) If there is something more positive it’s the PPI, that didn’t fall as sharply as expected or by as

China November CPI +0.2% y/y (expected +0.5%) PPI -2.5% y/y (expected -2.8%) Read More »

PBOC is expected to set the USD/CNY reference rate at 7.2627 – Reuters estimate

People’s Bank of China USD/CNY reference rate is due around 0115 GMT. The People’s Bank of China (PBOC), China’s central bank, is responsible for setting the daily midpoint of the yuan (also known as renminbi or RMB). The PBOC follows a managed floating exchange rate system that allows the value of the yuan to fluctuate

PBOC is expected to set the USD/CNY reference rate at 7.2627 – Reuters estimate Read More »

Eurozone December Sentix investor confidence -17.5 vs -13.5 expected

Prior -12.8 That’s the weakest reading since November 2023 and it highlights the pessimistic outlook towards the euro area economy to wrap up the year and also towards next year. With political uncertainty rising and Trump tariffs on the horizon, it’s not a good look for the Eurozone ahead of what will be a very

Eurozone December Sentix investor confidence -17.5 vs -13.5 expected Read More »

Copper Technical Analysis – The stars are starting to align

Fundamental Overview The Chinese Politburo announced that it will adopt a “moderately loose” strategy for monetary policy for 2025, which marked the first major shift in stance since 2011. Moreover, the language around fiscal policy was stepped up to “more proactive” from just “proactive” in another sign that Chinese officials intend to ease policies more

Copper Technical Analysis – The stars are starting to align Read More »

AUD/USD reverses Friday losses on China bounce, what levels to watch?

It’s been a surging run up for the pair, gaining 0.9% from around 0.6385 before the headlines to 0.6447 currently. That comes after testing levels under 0.6400, which were the lowest since August. The nudge higher today now sees buyers recover back some near-term control as well. That as price action climbs above its 100-hour

AUD/USD reverses Friday losses on China bounce, what levels to watch? Read More »

ForexLive Asia-Pacific FX news wrap: USD ticks a little higher

Oil ICYMI – Saudi Aramco reduced January 2025 pricing for Arab Light crude oil for AsiaReserve Bank of Australia meeting on Tuesday, December 10, 2024 – Statement/Bullock focusBank of England Deputy Governor Dave Ramsden is speaking on MondayNew Zealand PM Luxon says committed to continuing efforts to lower inflation and ratesSouth Korea’s benchmark equity index

ForexLive Asia-Pacific FX news wrap: USD ticks a little higher Read More »

Fitch has slashed its 2025 and 2026 China economic growth forecasts

Fitch analysts on China: China 2025 GDP growth forecast has been revised to 4.3% from 4.5%.China 2026 GDP growth has been revised to 4.0% from 4.3% in September.There are tentative signs of stabilization in the real estate sector, but a prolonged downturn in the property market remains a risk.The effective tariff rate on US imports

Fitch has slashed its 2025 and 2026 China economic growth forecasts Read More »

Update on Syria regime change: reports Assad and family fled to, given asylum in, Moscow

Info comes via AP, here is the link to keep up with ongoing developments. In brief: rebel advance reached the capital, ending the Assad family’s 50 years of iron ruleRussian state news agencies were reporting that President Bashar Assad and his family had arrived in Moscow and were given asylumAbu Mohammed al-Golani, a former al-Qaida

Update on Syria regime change: reports Assad and family fled to, given asylum in, Moscow Read More »

South Korea to announce measures to improve FX liquidity by end of year

I posted this from South Korea’s Finance Ministry over the weekend: South Korean Finance Minister vows bold and swift measures to address financial mkt swings More now from South Korea’s finance ministry and regulators Monday statement, will make all-out efforts to stabilise financial markets by deploying contingency plans announced earlier and preparing fresh measures to

South Korea to announce measures to improve FX liquidity by end of year Read More »

European equities open up with a more positive mood to start the day

Eurostoxx +0.5%Germany DAX +0.5%France CAC 40 +0.7%UK FTSE +0.4%Spain IBEX +0.3%Italy FTSE MIB +0.6% It’s all looking positive for stocks now as the mood music has turned up after China’s announcement earlier. S&P 500 futures are also seen up 0.1% as risk trades are rallying to start the session. In FX, the biggest beneficiary is

European equities open up with a more positive mood to start the day Read More »

China’s annual central economic work conference is set to convene this week

China’s annual central economic work conference is set to convene this week Chinese leaders will convene for up to three daysits a closed-door conference will set out next year’s major policy goals and concrete tasks during the central economic work conference.its attended by hundreds of high-ranking officials, including ministers, the central bank governor, provincial governors

China’s annual central economic work conference is set to convene this week Read More »

New Zealand PM Luxon says committed to continuing efforts to lower inflation and rates

New Zealand PM Luxon: Our commitment is to energize the economy by continuing efforts to lower living costs, inflation, and interest rates. Luxon is speaking mainly on the enhancing competition in the country’s banking sector but hid remark on rates. NZD/USD a few tics lower, circa 0.5828. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at

New Zealand PM Luxon says committed to continuing efforts to lower inflation and rates Read More »

Demand for UK workers drops significantly after government’s budget

Info from Recruitment and Employment Confederation trade body and accountants KPMG survey comes via Reuters: Demand for workers in Britain fell sharply after the Labour government’s first budget. REC/KPMG’s staff demand index dropping to 43.9 in November, the lowest since August 2020. Permanent staff placements saw the fastest decline since August 2023, while temporary hiring

Demand for UK workers drops significantly after government’s budget Read More »

Bitcoin price prediction – watch these institutional key price levels of bitcoin futures

🚀 Bitcoin Price Prediction: Key Levels and Strategies for This Week Hello, crypto traders and investors! 👋 If you’ve opened the charts this week, you’ve probably noticed a sea of red across the crypto market: BTC: Down 2.5%ETH: Down 3.5%BNB: Over 4% downDOGE: A significant 7.5% dip (Elon’s favorite is struggling a bit)SHIBA: Nearing a

Bitcoin price prediction – watch these institutional key price levels of bitcoin futures Read More »

Market Outlook for the Week of 9th – 13th December

This week’s economic calendar kicks off on Tuesday with the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) delivering its monetary policy announcement, setting the tone for market sentiment in the region. On Wednesday, the spotlight shifts to the U.S., where inflation data will be released marking the most anticipated event of the week. This will be accompanied

Market Outlook for the Week of 9th – 13th December Read More »

China president Xi: We must be fully prepared to achieve next year’s economic targets

We must affirm the confidence to win while doing next year’s economic workMust maintain strategic focus and actively create an external environment that is favourableCurrent development faces many uncertainties and challenges, must be given high attention The communique from Xi here is mainly to amplify the message set out from the Politburo earlier here. This

China president Xi: We must be fully prepared to achieve next year’s economic targets Read More »

Oil ICYMI – Saudi Aramco reduced January 2025 pricing for Arab Light crude oil for Asia

Saudi Aramco Price Adjustments: January 2025 official selling price (OSP) for Arab Light crude in Asia cut by 80 cents to $0.90 per barrel above the regional benchmark.Arab Extra Light and Super Light OSPs reduced by 60 cents and 70 cents per barrel, respectively.Arab Medium and Heavy OSPs reduced by 70 cents per barrel each.

Oil ICYMI – Saudi Aramco reduced January 2025 pricing for Arab Light crude oil for Asia Read More »

Trump’s stance on Fed Chair Powell revealed in weekend interview

Trump spoke in a Sunday interview. Said that he has no intention of removing Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell. During an appearance on NBC’s “Meet the Press” with Kristen Welker, Trump was asked whether he would seek to replace Powell. “No, I don’t think so. I don’t see it,” Trump replied”I think if I told

Trump’s stance on Fed Chair Powell revealed in weekend interview Read More »

Goldman Sachs’ inflation projections for China are significantly lower than the consensus

We had soft inflation figures from China for November out an hour or ago: China November CPI +0.2% y/y (expected +0.5%) PPI -2.5% y/y (expected -2.8%)China’s Inflation Data: November Trends and Projections Looking ahead, Goldman Sachs’ inflation projections for China in 2025 are significantly lower than the consensus among economists, according to a research note.

Goldman Sachs’ inflation projections for China are significantly lower than the consensus Read More »

Economic calendar in Asia Monday, December 9, 2024 – China inflation data

November 2024 inflation data is due from China today, and it comes in the context of weak Consumer Price Index (CPI) and deflationary Producer Price Index (PPI). In October, China’s CPI increased by 0.3% year-on-year, slightly down from September’s 0.4% rise. This marked the ninth consecutive month of consumer inflation (rather than deflation), with October’s

Economic calendar in Asia Monday, December 9, 2024 – China inflation data Read More »

China’s Inflation Data: November Trends and Projections

China’s National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) statement on the inflation data: In November, policy measures boosted industrial demand, reversing the PPI’s month-on-month decline and narrowing its year-on-year drop.China’s November CPI year-on-year increase hits a five-month low, PPI year-on-year decline smallest in three months.In November, core CPI, excluding food and energy prices, continued to rise, with

China’s Inflation Data: November Trends and Projections Read More »

ICYMI – Japan’s main opposition leader calls for gradual BOJ rate hikes

If you have been on holidays and missed this (… cough), Japan’s biggest opposition Constitutional Democratic Party of Japan (CDPJ) leader Yoshihiko Noda spoke in an interview with Reuters on Friday. in brief: Noda says wrong for BOJ to focus on keeping ultra-easy policy BOJ should raise rates gradually without committing to set pace Weak

ICYMI – Japan’s main opposition leader calls for gradual BOJ rate hikes Read More »

Monday morning open levels – indicative forex prices – 09 December 2024

As is usual for a Monday morning, market liquidity is very thin until it improves as more Asian centres come online … prices are liable to swing around, so take care out there. Indicative rates, not too much change since late Friday: EUR/USD 1.0560USD/JPY 149.88GBP/USD 1.2734USD/CHF 0.8789USD/CAD 1.4155AUD/USD 0.6391NZD/USD 0.5841 This article was written by

Monday morning open levels – indicative forex prices – 09 December 2024 Read More »

Weekly Market Outlook (09-13 December)

UPCOMING EVENTS: Monday: China CPI.Tuesday: RBA Policy Decision, US NFIB Small Business Optimism Index.Wednesday: Japan Tankan Index, Japan PPI, US CPI, BoC Policy Decision.Thursday: Australia Labour Market report, SNB Policy Decision, ECB Policy Decision, US PPI, US Jobless Claims, New Zealand Manufacturing PMI.Friday: BoJ Tankan Index, UK GDP. Monday The Chinese CPI Y/Y is expected

Weekly Market Outlook (09-13 December) Read More »

Great weekend news for gold bulls as China’s central bank resumes buying

Data released Saturday by the People’s Bank of China revealed that it has resumed buying gold. It was the largest official buyer in the world in 2023 as it looked to be headed on a multi-year effort to diversify out of US dollars. That changed this year as officials seemingly became price sensitive as buying

Great weekend news for gold bulls as China’s central bank resumes buying Read More »

Newsquawk Week Ahead: Highlights include: US and China inflation, ECB, RBA, BoC, SNB

Mon: Eurogroup Meeting; Chinese CPI & PPI (Nov), EZ Sentix (Dec), US Employment Trends (Nov)Tue: RBA Policy Announcement, EIA STEO; German Final CPI (Nov), Norwegian CPI (Nov), US NFIB (Nov), Chinese Trade Balance (Nov), Chinese Central Economic Work ConferenceWed: BoC & BCB Policy Announcement, OPEC MOMR; South African CPI (Nov), US CPI (Nov)Thu: ECB &

Newsquawk Week Ahead: Highlights include: US and China inflation, ECB, RBA, BoC, SNB Read More »

Morgan Stanley: Tactical FX views on USD, EUR, and GBP

Morgan Stanley shares a tactically bullish stance on the USD, citing strong US data and trade policy risks. The EUR faces headwinds from weak domestic growth and tariff-related risks, while the GBP benefits from fiscal-driven growth and high rate differentials. Key Points: USD: View: Bullish.Rationale: Strong US data and potential repricing of trade policy risks

Morgan Stanley: Tactical FX views on USD, EUR, and GBP Read More »

Forexlive Americas FX news wrap: Rate cut odds ramp up after US and Canadian jobs data

US November non-farm payrolls +227K vs +200K expectedCanada November employment change +50.5K vs +25.0K expectedUMich December prelim consumer sentiment 74.0 vs 73.0 expectedFed’s Bowman says she does not take a dissenting vote on policy lightlyFed’s Goolsbee: Hope the Fed will get the to range of neutral by the end of 2025Fed’s Goolsbee: On average it

Forexlive Americas FX news wrap: Rate cut odds ramp up after US and Canadian jobs data Read More »

What’s coming up on the US economic calendar for the second week of December

This week ahead includes CPI and PPI and with some notable Treasury auctions. The Fed goes into blackout at midnight on Friday so it will be considerably quieter on that front. The FOMC decision is December 18. Here’s a day-by-day preview of next week’s U.S. economic data releases: Monday, December 9 10:00 AM: Wholesale Inventories

What’s coming up on the US economic calendar for the second week of December Read More »

Canadian employment headline strength masks weakness underneath. Expect 50 bps – CIBC

CIBC is out with a review of today’s Canadian jobs report: Despite strong headline job numbers, the underlying details were mostly negativeThey cite: Largely public sector job gains, highest unemployment rate since 2016, wage growth lowest since June 2023The weakening labor market, combined with slow GDP growth, indicates growing economic slackPrivate sector employment grew only

Canadian employment headline strength masks weakness underneath. Expect 50 bps – CIBC Read More »

Fed’s Goolsbee: Hope the Fed will get the to range of neutral by the end of 2025

A single month’s data is not reliable but if the household survey were to show steady deterioration, the Fed would have to look at it more closelyIt’s likely that goods prices will return to deflation, services continues in the right direction, market data on housing suggests coming improvement thereWill be watching rate-sensitive sectors, lagged impact

Fed’s Goolsbee: Hope the Fed will get the to range of neutral by the end of 2025 Read More »

Forexlive Americas FX news wrap: USD sags, bitcoin gives back $100,000

US initial jobless claims 224K vs 215K expectedUS October trade balance -73.8 billion vs -75.0 billion expectedCanada October trade balance -$0.92 vs -$0.79 billion expectedMacron: From now on, a new era must start with new compromisesBOE’s Greene: We cannot work out yet what direction US tariffs would push UK inflationAtlanta Fed GDPNow +3.3% vs +3.2%

Forexlive Americas FX news wrap: USD sags, bitcoin gives back $100,000 Read More »

This recent study shows where some of the big fish are taking some of their money

🌟 Big Money Moves: What It Means for You 🌟 Sovereign and public funds managing a staggering $6.5 trillion are making bold investment moves! 🤑 Here’s what’s happening: 🌍 Emerging Markets in Focus: These funds are pouring money into rapidly growing markets like India, betting on its booming economy for long-term gains. 📈🌱 Going Green:

This recent study shows where some of the big fish are taking some of their money Read More »

🚨 Czech Republic exempts long-term Bitcoin holdings from capital gains tax 💰

💡 Czech Republic’s Strategic Move to Attract Young Entrepreneurs and Drive the Digital Economy 🚀 By exempting Bitcoin held for over three years from capital gains tax, the Czech Republic is sending a clear signal: it aims to be a leader in the digital age. This bold and forward-thinking policy is designed to: 🎯 Appeal

🚨 Czech Republic exempts long-term Bitcoin holdings from capital gains tax 💰 Read More »

Tech sector powers up: Tesla and Microsoft lead the charge

Sector Overview: A Mixed Bag with Tech Taking the Lead The US stock market today presents a dynamic picture, highlighted by notable movements across various sectors. The technology sector shines, driven by gains in key stocks, while semiconductors face mild declines. Let’s delve into the major sectoral performances. 📈 Technology & Consumer Cyclical: Leading the

Tech sector powers up: Tesla and Microsoft lead the charge Read More »

ForexLive European FX news wrap: Dollar mostly steady ahead of NFP

Headlines: Welcome to NFP dayWhat is the distribution of forecasts for the US NFP?European stocks look to continue winning streak to wrap up the weekBOE’s Dhingra: We should be easing policy moreEurozone Q3 final GDP +0.4% vs +0.4% q/q second estimateGermany October industrial production -1.0% vs +1.2% m/m expectedFrance October trade balance -€7.67 billion vs

ForexLive European FX news wrap: Dollar mostly steady ahead of NFP Read More »

UMich December prelim consumer sentiment 74.0 vs 73.0 expected

Prior was 71.8Current conditions 77.7 vs 63.9 priorExpectations 71.6 vs 76.9 prior1-year inflation 2.9% vs 2.6% prior 5-year inflation 3.1% vs 3.2% prior This report isn’t about consumer spending, it’s about politics. Act accordingly: Republican sentiment up to 81.6 from 53.6 in OctoberDemocrats down to 70.9 from 91.4 in October This isn’t a serious survey.

UMich December prelim consumer sentiment 74.0 vs 73.0 expected Read More »

European equity close: German DAX flat today but up 3.8% on the week

On the day: Stoxx 600 +0.1%German DAX +0.1%France CAC +1.3%UK FTSE 100 -0.5%Spain IBEX -0.5%Italy’s FTSE MIB +0.3% On the week: Stoxx 600 +1.9%German DAX +3.8%France CAC +2.7%UK FTSE 100 +0.25%Spain IBEX +3.6%Italy’s FTSE MIB +3.9% That’s a great week for European stocks, despite all the headwinds around energy and autos. Is that a signal

European equity close: German DAX flat today but up 3.8% on the week Read More »

US dollar stumbles as unemployment rate falls and the market leans to a December rate cut

The US dollar fell to the lows of the day immediately after the November non-farm payrolls report. The headline jobs gain was slightly better than expected at +227K compared to +200K and there was an upward revisions to the past two months of data but the market instead focused on the unemployment rate, which rose

US dollar stumbles as unemployment rate falls and the market leans to a December rate cut Read More »

Welcome to NFP day

As such, that will likely make for a quieter session in Europe with traders waiting in anticipation of the main event. The headline estimate is for non-farm payrolls to rebound to +200K, with the bounce owing to a recovery from Hurricane Milton and the end of the Boeing strike among other things. But no matter

Welcome to NFP day Read More »

BTC saw $416M liquidated in long positions, in the last 24 hours

💡 Volatility Insights: What Liquidations Tell Us About Crypto Market Conditions 📉 Bitcoin and Ethereum Dominate Liquidations: Over the past 24 hours, BTC saw $416M liquidated in long positions, followed by ETH at $68M. Heavy liquidation pressure suggests markets are volatile and overleveraged. 💥 Market Sentiment: Longs are getting hit hard, signaling potential bearish trends.

BTC saw $416M liquidated in long positions, in the last 24 hours Read More »

Eurozone Q3 final GDP +0.4% vs +0.4% q/q second estimate

Prior +0.2% Looking at the breakdown, there were GDP contributions from household consumption (+0.4%), government expenditure (+0.1%), gross fixed capital formation (+0.4%), and changes in inventories (+0.4%). That is partially offset by a decline in growth for trade i.e. exports less imports (-0.9%) on the quarter. This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

Eurozone Q3 final GDP +0.4% vs +0.4% q/q second estimate Read More »

US November non-farm payrolls +227K vs +200K expected

Prior was +12KTwo-month net revision: +56KUnemployment rate: 4.2% vs 4.2% expectedUnrounded unemployment rate: 4.215% vs 4.145% priorParticipation rate: 62.5% vs 62.6% priorPrivate payrolls +194K vs +200K expectedPrior private payrolls +36K (revised from +12K)U6 underemployment rate: 7.8% vs 7.7% priorAverage hourly earnings: +0.4% vs +0.3% expectedPrior avg hourly earnings: +0.4% (unrevised)Average hourly earnings y/y: 4.0% vs

US November non-farm payrolls +227K vs +200K expected Read More »

EURUSD trades near the high of the recent trading range ahead of US job report

The EUR/USD moved higher on Thursday after buyers leaned against the 100- and 200-hour moving averages (MAs), supported by weaker-than-expected initial jobless claims, which triggered USD selling. This upward move comes ahead of Friday’s U.S. jobs report, a key event that could either confirm or challenge the narrative of a weakening labor market. Non-farm payrolls

EURUSD trades near the high of the recent trading range ahead of US job report Read More »

USD/CAD rises above 1.41 as a jumbo Bank of Canada rate cut nears

The headline Canadian jobs gain was a positive surprise today but digging into the details tells a different story. Virtually all the job gains were in government jobs and the unemployment rate rose to 6.8% from 6.6% in another jump in population estimates. The jobless rate at 6.8% is now the highest since September 2021

USD/CAD rises above 1.41 as a jumbo Bank of Canada rate cut nears Read More »

Fed’s Bowman says she does not take a dissenting vote on policy lightly

Fed still has not achieved its 2% inflation targetEconomic conditions are very strongThe Fed has made progress in lowering inflation and cooling the labor market.Unemployment rate still well-below ‘full employment’ levelCore inflation ‘uncomfortably’ above targetUpside risks to inflation remain prominentLowering policy rate too quickly could ignite inflation Bowman is a hawk so it wouldn’t be

Fed’s Bowman says she does not take a dissenting vote on policy lightly Read More »

Canada November employment change +50.5K vs +25.0K expected

Prior month +14.5KUnemployment rate 6.8% vs 6.6% expected (prior 6.5%)Full-time employment +54.2K vs +25.6K priorPart-time employment -3.6K vs -11.2K priorParticipation rate 65.1% vs 64.8% priorAverage hourly wages y/y 4.1% vs 4.9% priorPrivate sector employment +6.3K vs +20.5K priorPublic sector employment +45K vs -17.2K prior Ahead of the data, the market was pricing in a 56%

Canada November employment change +50.5K vs +25.0K expected Read More »

Germany October industrial production -1.0% vs +1.2% m/m expected

Prior -2.5%; revised to -2.0% German factory output declined to start Q4 and is a notable miss on estimates. It reaffirms the dire state of the manufacturing sector, with it still being in recession towards the closing stages of the year. Even if you strip out energy and construction, industrial output was still seen down

Germany October industrial production -1.0% vs +1.2% m/m expected Read More »

Locked and loaded for the November edition of non-farm payrolls

Happy non-farm payrolls Friday and we get the Canadian employment report at the same time. The consensus on NFP is +200K with unemployment ticking up to 4.2%. I wrote a full preview here. Given US hurricane/strike skews, the Canadian report should end up being the bigger market mover. Pricing is almost evenly split between 25

Locked and loaded for the November edition of non-farm payrolls Read More »

UK November Halifax house prices +1.3% vs +0.2% m/m expected

Prior +0.2%; revised to +0.4% Slight delay in the release by the source. UK house prices continued to climb in November, marking the fifth consecutive monthly increase in the index. This just reaffirms the positive momentum in the housing market, which wasn’t too badly affected by rate hikes before this anyway. It bolsters the outlook

UK November Halifax house prices +1.3% vs +0.2% m/m expected Read More »

Nasdaq Technical Analysis – The path of least resistance remains to the upside

Fundamental Overview The Nasdaq managed to extend the rally into a new all-time high recently. The conditions for further upside in the index remain in place. In fact, Trump’s policies will be a positive driver for growth in 2025 and with the Fed remaining in an easing cycle, growth should remain positive and might even

Nasdaq Technical Analysis – The path of least resistance remains to the upside Read More »

Romania’s top court annuls President election results

Romania’s top court annulled the Presidential election results, according to Digi24. The move came after declassified security documents were shown to judges. The court said the election process must be entirely re-run. This is after far-right candidate Calin Georgescu surprisingly won. That’s a strong move. I’m sure they will release the evidence, though it doesn’t

Romania’s top court annuls President election results Read More »

GBPUSD moved higher yesterday and tested the 50% midpoint of the November trading range

The GBPUSD moved higher yesterday helped by the USD selling but once the price stretched to the 50% midpoint of the November trading range, the buyers started to shift to sellers and the price wandered lower into the close. That level comes in at 1.27669. The high price going back to mid-November was just above

GBPUSD moved higher yesterday and tested the 50% midpoint of the November trading range Read More »

Magnitude 7.0 earthquake hits off California coast (update: Tsunami threat has passed)

Update: The tsunami warning has passed. The location of the earthquake was 40.370°N 125.025°W. Included were a series of smaller earthquakes nearby. It’s well-north of San Francisco and there is a tsunami warning. The nearest city is Eureka, CA, which has a population of 25,000, however it’s in a protected bay that should make it

Magnitude 7.0 earthquake hits off California coast (update: Tsunami threat has passed) Read More »

Russell 2000 Technical Analysis – The bullish bias remains intact

Fundamental Overview The Russell 2000 has been underperforming the other major indices recently and failed to extend into new highs. The conditions for a strong rally into new all-time highs remain in place though. In fact, Trump’s policies will be a positive driver for growth in 2025 and with the Fed remaining in an easing

Russell 2000 Technical Analysis – The bullish bias remains intact Read More »

Metaplex Protocol Achieves Record-Breaking Protocol Fees in November 2024

Metaplex, the blockchain protocol used to create virtually every token, memecoin, and NFT on Solana, saw record-breaking protocol fees in November, fueled by a surge in digital asset creation on Solana. Rise in Solana Token Creation Drives Record Protocol Growth As the protocol behind virtually all token creation on Solana, Metaplex has emerged as a

Metaplex Protocol Achieves Record-Breaking Protocol Fees in November 2024 Read More »

What is the distribution of forecasts for the US NFP?

Why it’s important? The ranges of estimates are important in terms of market reaction because when the actual data deviates from the expectations, it creates a surprise effect. Another important input in market’s reaction is the distribution of forecasts. In fact, although we can have a range of estimates, most forecasts might be clustered on

What is the distribution of forecasts for the US NFP? Read More »

UK trade minister says will think carefully about retaliating against Trump tariffs

Even if Trump slaps UK with tariffs, government has to think very carefully about retaliatingThere’s no political constituency for protectionism in this countryIncreasing costs of goods or food for your constituents is not attractiveA trade war doesn’t benefit anyoneHopes the UK won’t be targeted by TrumpBut if it happens, balanced trade with the US should

UK trade minister says will think carefully about retaliating against Trump tariffs Read More »

ANZ: Long AUD/NZD as a medium-term trade for 2025

ANZ recommends going long AUD/NZD in early 2025, anticipating AUD outperformance driven by diverging monetary policies, growth dynamics, and New Zealand’s diminishing carry advantage. Key Points: Year-End Weakness in AUD/NZD: Seasonal factors and risk sentiment tend to drive AUD/NZD lower into year-end.Strong NZD demand from seasonal exporter flows in November and December typically supports the

ANZ: Long AUD/NZD as a medium-term trade for 2025 Read More »

Forexlive Asia-pacific FX news wrap 6 Dec: Markets prepare for Jobs Friday

Asian Pacific stocks mixing it upS. Korea Joint Chief of Staff: There is no reason to worry about a 2nd martial lawS. Korea’s opposition parties lawmakers on high alert for another martial law declarationPres. Elect Trump picks David Sacks to be WH crypto and AI CzarGeopolitics:S. Korea ruling party leader says Pres. Yoon needs to

Forexlive Asia-pacific FX news wrap 6 Dec: Markets prepare for Jobs Friday Read More »

Pres. Elect Trump picks David Sacks to be WH crypto and AI Czar

Trump has tapped David Sacks to be the White House crypto and AI czar. David Sacks (born May 25, 1972) is a South African-American entrepreneur, author, and investor with a focus on internet technology firms. He is a general partner and co-founder of Craft Ventures, a venture capital fund established in 2017. Sacks also co-hosts

Pres. Elect Trump picks David Sacks to be WH crypto and AI Czar Read More »

Sellers in the AUDUSD are pushing the price below old floor. Can the sellers keep pushing?

The AUDUSD has seen steady sellers in trading today. The currency pairs now down -0.40%. And extending below what was a floor in the month of November between 0.6433 and 0.64419. That area is now close risk for sellers looking for more downside. Stay below is more bearish. The move to the downside was started

Sellers in the AUDUSD are pushing the price below old floor. Can the sellers keep pushing? Read More »

What is on the economic calendar for the Asian session to end the trading week

18:30 Japan All Household Spending…Oct estimate 0.4%, prior -1.3% 18:30 Japan Overtime Pay Oct. No estimate. Prior. -0.9 18:30 Japan Overall Cash Earnings Oct . Prior 2.5% 18:50 Japan Foreign Reserves | Nov . Prior 1,239.0B 19:30 Australia Owner-Occp’d Hous’g Fi… Oct. Prior 0.10% 19:30 Australia Invest Hous’g Fin MM Oct prior -1.0% 21:00 Australia

What is on the economic calendar for the Asian session to end the trading week Read More »

Geopolitics:S. Korea ruling party leader says Pres. Yoon needs to be suspended from office

Geopolitical news: S. Koreas Ruling Party leader Han Dong-Hoon says Pres. Yoon needs to be suspended from his office as soon as possible.Yoon ordered to arrest prominent politicians over grounds they are antistate forces. Yesterday, South Korea’s opposition parties moved to impeach President Yoon Suk Yeol over his brief declaration of martial law, which involved

Geopolitics:S. Korea ruling party leader says Pres. Yoon needs to be suspended from office Read More »

No records today as stocks take a breather. Russell 2000 the worst performer

The U.S. stock indices failed to set any new record closes today, following yesterday’s historic highs for the Dow, S&P 500, and Nasdaq. All three major indices ended the day lower, with the sharpest decline seen in the small-cap Russell 2000, which fell 1.25%. The Russell 2000 continues to seek a new record close, a

No records today as stocks take a breather. Russell 2000 the worst performer Read More »

BOE’s Greene: We cannot work out yet what direction US tariffs would push UK inflation

UK services inflation has remained stubbornly high, underpinned by wage growth The Bank of England continues to highlight inflation pressures but growth is also struggling and the honeymoon for Labour was short lived. This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

BOE’s Greene: We cannot work out yet what direction US tariffs would push UK inflation Read More »

Pepe Unchained Nears Presale Conclusion, Pepeto Prepares for Utility-Driven Growth

Pepe Unchained, with 10 days remaining until its official listing, continues to draw attention for its Layer 2 technology designed to improve scalability and transaction speed. Simultaneously, Pepeto is building momentum with its utility-driven approach, offering a cross-chain bridge, zero-fee exchange, and staking features. As both projects progress, Pepeto’s focus on addressing broader challenges in

Pepe Unchained Nears Presale Conclusion, Pepeto Prepares for Utility-Driven Growth Read More »

November non-farm payrolls preview by the numbers: A rebound, but how high?

Consensus estimate +120K Estimate range +155K to +275KSeptember was +12K Private consensus +200K versus -28K priorUnemployment rate consensus estimate 4.2% versus 4.1% priorPrior unrounded unemployment rate 4.145%Prior participation rate 62.6%Prior underemployment U6 7.7% Avg hourly earnings y/y exp +3.9% versus +4.0% priorAvg hourly earnings m/m exp +0.3% versus +0.4% priorAvg weekly hours exp 34.3 versus

November non-farm payrolls preview by the numbers: A rebound, but how high? Read More »

ForexLive European FX news wrap: Dollar more tepid, Bitcoin holds break of six figures

Headlines: Bitcoin finally hits six figuresOPEC+ to delay oil output hike until AprilWeekly update on interest rate expectationsBOJ’s Nakamura: I am not against rate hikes but decision should be data dependentBOJ’s Nakamura: There should not be a preset idea on when to raise interest ratesBOJ’s Nakamura: I want to make decision based on facts by

ForexLive European FX news wrap: Dollar more tepid, Bitcoin holds break of six figures Read More »

Crypto Market Factors That Could See Continued Growth in 2025

The entire crypto market is riding high as we head into 2025. Token prices are heading skywards, a crypto-friendly President-elect has been chosen to take power in the US and institutional investment is heading through the roof. More than 7.5% of the world population has adopted cryptocurrencies, according to a recent report by MatrixPort, with

Crypto Market Factors That Could See Continued Growth in 2025 Read More »

US dollar struggles as the countdown to non-farm payrolls begins

The US dollar is struggling today, particularly against the euro, pound and Canadian dollar. The pound is at a three-week high and looks to have carved out an inverted head-and-shoulders pattern. The dollar is weakening after a rise in initial jobless claims today but the bigger focus will be on tomorrow’s non-farm payrolls report and

US dollar struggles as the countdown to non-farm payrolls begins Read More »

BOJs Nakamura: Not confident about sustainability of wage growth

BOJs Nakamura is speaking and says: Personally not confident about sustainability of wage growth.We are at a critical phase where we must check many data, cautiously adjust degree of monetary support in accordance of improvement in economy.Hopes of US soft landing heightening, but there are signs of economic slowdown.Japan’s economy recovering moderately although showing some

BOJs Nakamura: Not confident about sustainability of wage growth Read More »

financials edge up: tech mixed and healthcare under pressure

Sector Overview Today’s stock market heatmap reveals varied performances across different sectors. Financial stocks showed resilience, while the tech sector offered mixed returns. Meanwhile, healthcare stocks dipped, signaling bearish sentiment. 🏦 Financial Sector: With JPMorgan Chase (JPM) climbing by 0.85% and Mastercard (MA) at 0.70%, the financial sector leads the growth trajectory. Investors seem confident

financials edge up: tech mixed and healthcare under pressure Read More »

Australia Balance of trade for October 5.953B vs 4.550B estimate

Prior month 4.609BBalance of Trade 5.953B vs 4.550B estGood/Services Import 0.1% vs -3.1% last monthGoods/Services export 3.6% vs -4.3% last month Both imports and exports move back into positive territory after sharp declines last month. Trrade surpluse is stronger than expectations as well. The AUDUS has moved marginally higher from 0.6421 to 0.6429 currently. The

Australia Balance of trade for October 5.953B vs 4.550B estimate Read More »

Canada October trade balance -$0.92 vs -$0.79 billion expected

Prior was -1.26BExports $64.22B vs $63.88B priorImports $65.14B vs $65.15B priorFirst increase in exports since June, but gains were concentrated in precious metalsTrade surplus with US shrank to C$6.2B from C$7.9B as exports to US fell 2.8%Gold exports surged, especially to UK and Hong Kong (+20.9%) Key Details: 8 of 11 export sectors declined despite

Canada October trade balance -$0.92 vs -$0.79 billion expected Read More »

The signals in China aren’t pointing to a big stimulus package this month

Chinese stock markets were mostly lower today and continue to consolidate after the September jump but there are concerns brewing. A Xinhua commentary on Tuesday appeared to downplay hopes ahead of the Central Economic Work Conference, which will take place December 11 and 12. “If we do not get rid of the ‘worship of speed’

The signals in China aren’t pointing to a big stimulus package this month Read More »

USDCHF is more than half-way through the week and not much is resolved technically

The USD/CHF remains in a technical stalemate more than halfway through the week. Early today, the pair hit its weekly low before rebounding into a swing area between 0.8880 and 0.8894. However, the momentum faltered, and the price retreated below a cluster of moving averages (MAs) ranging from 0.8845 to 0.8853. This decline extended toward

USDCHF is more than half-way through the week and not much is resolved technically Read More »

GBPUSD Technical Analysis – Consolidation ahead of the key catalysts

Fundamental Overview The US Dollar continues to consolidate around the highs as the market reached the peak in the repricing of interest rates expectations and it will need stronger reasons to price out the remaining rate cuts for 2025. This was signalled by the lack of US Dollar strength after lots of strong US data

GBPUSD Technical Analysis – Consolidation ahead of the key catalysts Read More »

UK inflation expectations for year ahead seen at 2.7% – BOE survey

Inflation expectations for the year ahead seen at 2.7% (previously 2.6%)Inflation expectations for three years ahead seen at 2.6% (unchanged)Expected wage growth for the year ahead seen at 4.0% (previously 4.1%)Full survey findings The survey is one conducted on small, medium, and large UK businesses in assessing their perception of prices and wages mostly. Based

UK inflation expectations for year ahead seen at 2.7% – BOE survey Read More »

STEPN GO and adidas Launch First-Ever STEPN GO x adidas Physical Shoe Drop

Social-lifestyle app STEPN GO is thrilled to announce the next milestone in its ongoing partnership with adidas: the launch of the first-ever STEPN GO x adidas co-branded physical running shoes featuring the STEPN GO logo. This exciting development follows a successful year of collaboration between the two brands, which previously saw the release of the

STEPN GO and adidas Launch First-Ever STEPN GO x adidas Physical Shoe Drop Read More »

USDCAD Technical Analysis – Key data in focus for the next major move

Fundamental Overview The US Dollar continues to consolidate around the highs as the market reached the peak in the repricing of interest rates expectations and it will need stronger reasons to price out the remaining rate cuts for 2025. This was signalled by the lack of US Dollar strength after lots of strong US data

USDCAD Technical Analysis – Key data in focus for the next major move Read More »

Forexlive Americas FX news wrap: Dollar unswayed by Powell, sags on softer ISM services

Fed’s Powell: US economy is envy of the world, I’m going to do everything to keep it thereUS November ISM services 52.1 vs 55.5 expectedUS November ADP employment +146K vs +150K expectedECB’s Lagarde: Inflation expected to temporarily rise in Q4 and decline next yearBeige Book: Fed districts deport slight growth, rising business optimism for 2025US

Forexlive Americas FX news wrap: Dollar unswayed by Powell, sags on softer ISM services Read More »

IW Institute: German unemployment rate will rise to 6.2% in 2025 from 6.0% in 2024.

Germany’s unemployment rate will rise to 6.2% in 2025 from 6.0% in 2024.The economy remains in crisis. Economy expected to grow by only 0.1% in 2025, following 0.2% contraction in 2024 Not encouraging for the euro zone’s largest economy. This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

IW Institute: German unemployment rate will rise to 6.2% in 2025 from 6.0% in 2024. Read More »

Forexlive Asia-pacific FX news wrap 5 Dec: Two-words: Bitcoin $100K

IW Institute: German unemployment rate will rise to 6.2% in 2025 from 6.0% in 2024.Mixed picture in the Asian Pacific stock indicesBitcoin $100K. Digital currency reaches the next key milestone.Trump Advisor: Trump wants to implement a Gaza cease-fire deal ASAPBOJs Nakamura: Not confident about sustainability of wage growthAustralia Balance of trade for October 5.953B vs

Forexlive Asia-pacific FX news wrap 5 Dec: Two-words: Bitcoin $100K Read More »

BOJ’s Nakamura: I am not against rate hikes but decision should be data dependent

There’s still plenty of data before December meeting, including Tankan reportNeed to scrutinise those data in deciding whether rate hike would be appropriate Nakamura is one of the more dovish members, so you’d expect a more cautious tone at least. As things stand, traders are pricing in ~38% odds of a 25 bps rate hike

BOJ’s Nakamura: I am not against rate hikes but decision should be data dependent Read More »

BOJ’s Nakamura: I want to make decision based on facts by scrutinising data a bit more

I voted against March, July decisions not because I was opposed to raising ratesBut because such decisions ought to be made after spending sufficient time confirming the data He’s really going out of his way to spell out what his supposed more dovish policy stance means today. If that is any indication, he seems to

BOJ’s Nakamura: I want to make decision based on facts by scrutinising data a bit more Read More »

Gold Technical Analysis – The rangebound price action continues

Fundamental Overview Nothing has changed in terms of the fundamentals this week. In fact, gold continues to consolidate around the major trendline and the 2600 support as the market awaits the US CPI report next week before picking a direction. In the bigger picture, the trend remains bullish amid the Fed’s easing cycle, but the

Gold Technical Analysis – The rangebound price action continues Read More »

BOJ’s Nakamura: There should not be a preset idea on when to raise interest rates

Japan economy is still in recovery, not yet at expansionary phaseI seem to be branded as very dovish on monetary policyBut I do see budding signs of a sustained recovery in the economyBOJ haven’t decided on rate hikes in December, January, or beyond thatIt will depend on upcoming data Despite seeding some doubts about a

BOJ’s Nakamura: There should not be a preset idea on when to raise interest rates Read More »

Switzerland November seasonally adjusted unemployment rate 2.6% vs 2.7% expected

Prior 2.6% The Swiss jobless rate keeps steady on the month but the unadjusted reading also creeps higher to 2.6%, up from 2.5% previously. The trend since last year has been upwards for Swiss unemployment, reflecting softer labour market conditions. At 2.6%, the seasonally adjusted rate matches that seen during December 2021. This article was

Switzerland November seasonally adjusted unemployment rate 2.6% vs 2.7% expected Read More »

Technicals in the AUDUSD & NZDUSD are showing similar patterns. What does that look like?

The AUDUSD moved sharply yesterday on the back of weaker Australia GDP data. The price broke below a floor area between 0.6433 and 0.6442 However, a sharp rebound took the price back above the swing area and to a high of 0.6450. The momentum cannot be sustained and when the price low back below the

Technicals in the AUDUSD & NZDUSD are showing similar patterns. What does that look like? Read More »

Beige Book: Fed districts deport slight growth, rising business optimism for 2025

Economic activity rose slightly in most DistrictsThree regions exhibited modest or moderate growth that offset flat or slightly declining activity in two othersExpectations for growth rose moderately across most geographiesEmployment levels flat to slightly higher, hiring subdued amid low turnoverWage growth softened to modest pace, except robust gains for entry-level and skilled trade positionsPrice increases

Beige Book: Fed districts deport slight growth, rising business optimism for 2025 Read More »

The econ calendar for the Asian session:. JPY foreign investment flows. AUD trade balance

The economic calendar is light in the Asian session today: Japan foreign investment flows will be released: foreign bond investment , -773.7 billion lastForeign investment in Japan Stocks, –446.0B lastForeign investment in Japan bonds, -300.7B lastForeign Stock investment, -318.1B last Also Australia balance of goods data for the month of October will be released: balance

The econ calendar for the Asian session:. JPY foreign investment flows. AUD trade balance Read More »

Kickstart the new trading day on Dec 5 w/ a technical look at EURUSD, USDJPY & GBPUSD

The major currency pairs yesterday moved up and down in yesterday’s trading as the markets reacted to weaker PMI data, ADP jobs which wer as expected but lower than last month. Productivity was a disappointment at -0.4% for Q3 vs -0.2% estimateFactory orders came in as expected. The Fed Chair did speak and highlighted the

Kickstart the new trading day on Dec 5 w/ a technical look at EURUSD, USDJPY & GBPUSD Read More »

Fed’s Powell: US economy is envy of the world, I’m going to do everything to keep it there

Feel very good about where monetary policy isUS economy is in remarkably good shapeThe same institutional relationships between Fed and Treasury will continue under new adminPart of the Fed’s independence is that it’s self fundedEconomy in good shape and no reason that can’t continueOn a path to more-neutral rates over time, though downside risks are

Fed’s Powell: US economy is envy of the world, I’m going to do everything to keep it there Read More »

MUFG: EUR/USD could test parity in 2025 before modest recovery

MUFG expects the euro to remain under pressure in 2025, driven by anticipated U.S. trade policies and geopolitical tensions, with EUR/USD potentially testing parity before staging a modest recovery. Key Points: Election Impact: The euro fell sharply following Donald Trump’s election victory, with markets bracing for aggressive trade, immigration, and fiscal policies.Tariff Risks: U.S. trade

MUFG: EUR/USD could test parity in 2025 before modest recovery Read More »

Oil can’t hold a bid ahead of Thursday’s OPEC+ decision

There have been multiple reports saying that the most likely OPEC+ result is an extension of production curbs through Q1, followed by the start of the planned return of barrels. Normally, I would argue that’s priced in and tomorrow’s price action should be smooth if/when that’s announced. However, the oil market operates differently and there

Oil can’t hold a bid ahead of Thursday’s OPEC+ decision Read More »

US November S&P Global final services PMI 56.1 vs 57.0 prelim

Prelim was 57.0Prior was 55.0Composite 54.9 vs 55.3 prelim (54.1 prior).Services PMI jumps to 56.1 in November from 55.0 in OctoberFastest expansion since March 2022New orders growth strongest since April 2022Employment falls for 4th straight month despite strong activityOutput price inflation hits 4.5-year low The ISM services report is due at the top of the

US November S&P Global final services PMI 56.1 vs 57.0 prelim Read More »

US MBA mortgage applications w.e. 29 November +2.8% vs +6.3% prior

Prior +6.3%Market index 213.9 vs 208.0 priorPurchase index 161.5 vs 152.9 priorRefinance index 498.5 vs 501.7 prior30-year mortgage rate 6.69% vs 6.86% prior Mortgage applications continued with the bounce back in the past week, helped by a surge in purchases activity. That comes amid a modest drop in the average rate of the most popular

US MBA mortgage applications w.e. 29 November +2.8% vs +6.3% prior Read More »

EIA weekly crude oil inventories -5073K vs -671K expected

Prior was -1844KGasoline inventories +2362K vs +639K expectedDistillate inventories +3383K vs +940K expectedRefinery utilization +2.8% vs +0.5% expected Private inventories released yesterday: Crude +1232KGasoline +4623KDistillates +1014K The official numbers are better than the private data. WTI crude oil was down 27 cents to $69.69 ahead of the data. This article was written by Adam Button

EIA weekly crude oil inventories -5073K vs -671K expected Read More »

France November final services PMI 46.9 vs 45.7 prelim

Prior 49.2Composite PMI 45.9 vs 44.8 prelimPrior 48.1 The revisions are positive but they are still markedly lower compared to the October readings. Of note, French services demand experienced its sharpest decline in a year as business confidence also sunk to a four-and-a-half year low. Pain. HCOB notes that: “The positive signals from the HCOB

France November final services PMI 46.9 vs 45.7 prelim Read More »

Fed’s Musalem: Time may be approaching to slow or pause rate cuts

Additional policy easing may be needed over timeThere is uncertainty over neutral rate, it could be between 3-4%Expects moderation in economic growth and hiringLabor market no longer a source of inflation riskMonetary policy is well positioned for what lies aheadToo much policy easing carries risksFed is currently well-above neutral Musalem is a 2025 vote and

Fed’s Musalem: Time may be approaching to slow or pause rate cuts Read More »

US October factory orders +0.2% vs +0.2% expected

Prior was -0.5%Factory goods orders ex transportation +0.2% vs +0.1% prior Durable goods orders +0.3% vs +0.2% preliminary. Last month was -0.7%Durable goods ex transportation +0.2% vs +0.1% preliminary. Last month +0.1%Durable goods ex defense +0.5% versus -1.1% priorDurable goods nondefense capital goods orders ex-air -0.2% versus -0.2% preliminary. Last month +0.7% These numbers aren’t

US October factory orders +0.2% vs +0.2% expected Read More »

Canadian bank leaders see struggles for the Canadian economy

RBC execs: Expect Canadian economy to continue softening in 2025 with GDP and population growth slowingCredit losses to be in the mid 30s and peaking in the second half of the yearCanadian economy has been underperforming, expects BOC to continue cutting rates more aggressively than the FedBackdrop in the US has been far more resilientPotential

Canadian bank leaders see struggles for the Canadian economy Read More »

BofA: What we expect from the November US jobs report on Friday

BofA anticipates a strong rebound in nonfarm payrolls for November, driven by the reversal of temporary factors that impacted the previous month. The unemployment rate is expected to edge higher due to normalization in labor force participation. Key Points: Payroll Growth: Nonfarm payrolls are forecast to increase by 240k in November, significantly higher than October’s

BofA: What we expect from the November US jobs report on Friday Read More »

ECBs Holzmann: 25 basis point cut is conceivable in December. not more

ECBs Holzmann is speaking and says: 25 bps rate cut is conceivable in December, not more.Nothing decided on next rate move, will depend on data available at December meeting.Trump is casting a shadow over inflation in Europe, will probably drive up inflation forecast. This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

ECBs Holzmann: 25 basis point cut is conceivable in December. not more Read More »

AUD/USD falls back to the lows for the day as the aussie stays heavy

From earlier: Australia GDP Q3 0.3% versus 0.4% estimate After the report was released, the aussie dropped and eventually took a run under the key short-term support region of 0.6433-50. There was a slight bounce after as we began European trading but now we’re seeing price run back to the downside. If the technical break

AUD/USD falls back to the lows for the day as the aussie stays heavy Read More »

OECD raises global growth outlook for next year but warns of protectionism risk

🌎 Global growth forecast for 2024 at 3.2% (unchanged), 2025 at 3.3% (previously 3.2%), 2026 at 3.3% 🇺🇸 US growth forecast for 2024 at 2.8% (previously 2.6%), 2025 at 2.4% (previously 1.6%), 2026 at 2.1% 🇪🇺 Eurozone growth forecast for 2024 at 0.8% (previously 0.7%), 2025 at 1.3% (unchanged), 2026 at 1.5% 🇬🇧 UK growth

OECD raises global growth outlook for next year but warns of protectionism risk Read More »

Tech sector boosts: semiconductor gains and resilient performance in consumer cyclicals

📈 Technology and Semiconductor Sector: A Surge in Green The tech sector leads the market today, with notable performances from Microsoft (MSFT) up by 0.78%, and Oracle (ORCL) by 1.78%. Standout performance in the semiconductor space is observed as Avago Technologies (AVGO) surges by 4.00% and Nvidia (NVDA) climbs 1.69%. These gains reflect positive sentiment

Tech sector boosts: semiconductor gains and resilient performance in consumer cyclicals Read More »

ECB’s Lagarde: Inflation expected to temporarily rise in Q4 and decline next year

We are therefore not pre-committing to a particular rate pathThe medium-term economic outlook is uncertainGrowth will be weaker in the short termFurther ahead, the eurozone economic recovery should start to gather steam The market has been reading the signals from ECB policymakers and data and now sees just an 8% chance of a 50 bps

ECB’s Lagarde: Inflation expected to temporarily rise in Q4 and decline next year Read More »

Credit Agricole: Does Trump want a weak or strong USD?

Trump’s recent comments and trade policies reveal contradictions regarding his stance on the USD. While protectionist policies could suggest a preference for a weaker USD to reduce trade deficits and boost competitiveness, fiscal spending and borrowing needs may lean toward a stable or strong USD to sustain debt financing and avoid inflationary pressures. Key Points:

Credit Agricole: Does Trump want a weak or strong USD? Read More »

Forexlive Asia-pacific FX news wrap 4 Dec The AUDUSD falls sharply after weaker GDP data.

Key Contenders for Pentagon Leadership: Ernst, Hagerty, and DeSantis in the SpotlightECBs Holzmann: 25 basis point cut is conceivable in December. not moreThe AUDUSD is running to the downside, but is now testing a key floor. What next?Bank of Korea: Will increase short term liquidity measures starting WednesdayChina Caixin Services PMI for November 51.5 versus

Forexlive Asia-pacific FX news wrap 4 Dec The AUDUSD falls sharply after weaker GDP data. Read More »

Canada November S&P Global Services PMI 51.2 vs 50.4 prior

Composite PMI 51.5 vs 50.7 prior Services PMI rises to 51.2 from 50.4 in October, highest since April 2023Employment growth hits 14-month highInput costs remain elevated despite slowing from October peakExport orders decline accelerates amid global conflicts and cost pressures Paul Smith, Economics Director at S&P Global Market Intelligence, said: “November proved to be a

Canada November S&P Global Services PMI 51.2 vs 50.4 prior Read More »

US November ADP employment +146K vs +150K expected

Prior was +233K (revised to +184K)Annual pay growth for job-stayers 4.8% vs 4.6% priorJob-changers’ pay gains 7.2% vs 6.2% priorServices +140K vs +211K priorGoods +6K vs +22K prior “While overall growth for the month was healthy, industry performance was mixed. Manufacturing was the weakest we’ve seen since spring. Financial services and leisure and hospitality were

US November ADP employment +146K vs +150K expected Read More »

ECB’s Vujčić: I don’t think December decision will be that difficult

We are on the same page and I don’t believe it will be much different in the coming meetingsExpects ECB to stick with cutting rates at a gradual pace rather than a bigger move this monthInflation pick up in latest report mostly due to base effects i.e. energy prices phasing outNew forecasts next week should

ECB’s Vujčić: I don’t think December decision will be that difficult Read More »

ForexLive European FX news wrap: USD/JPY sticks with the early bounce, ADP up next

Headlines: USD/JPY continues run higher to touch 151.00 on the dayUSDJPY Technical Analysis – The chances for a rate hike dwindleHeads up: French government set to face no confidence vote todayECB’s Vujčić: I don’t think December decision will be that difficultECB’s Rehn: I see policy easing continuing in the coming monthsBOE governor Bailey expects four

ForexLive European FX news wrap: USD/JPY sticks with the early bounce, ADP up next Read More »

Crude Oil Technical Analysis – The top of the range is in sight

Fundamental Overview The fundamentals in the crude oil market haven’t changed much in the past month. In fact, crude oil remains confined in a range between the 72.00 resistance and the 67.00 support as the market continues to weigh the future scenarios. On one hand, we have the Trump’s victory which might be seen as

Crude Oil Technical Analysis – The top of the range is in sight Read More »

South Korea opposition parties submit impeachment bill against President Yoon

The fallout of President Yoon continues but not without drama. In case you missed the developments from yesterday: South Korean President declares martial low “to clear out pro-North Korean elements”South Korean parliament votes to block President’s martial law declarationSouth Korean president reverses his martial law declaration The Korean won has largely retraced the fall from

South Korea opposition parties submit impeachment bill against President Yoon Read More »

Australia’s treasurer Chalmers: Today’s National accounts show positive but weak GDP

Australia’s Treasurer Chalmers: Today’s national accounts show positive but week GDP growthPeople are under pressure but it’s encouraging to see growth in real disposable incomes. Australia’s economy grew by 0.3% in the third quarter, falling short of the expected 0.4% as weakness in consumer and business spending offset increased government expenditure on defense and infrastructure.

Australia’s treasurer Chalmers: Today’s National accounts show positive but weak GDP Read More »

Italy November services PMI 49.2 vs 51.2 expected

Services PMI 49.2 vs. 51.2 expected and 52.4 prior.Composite PMI 47.7 vs. 51.0 prior. Key findings: Service sector registers fresh decline in activity, albeit only marginal Fastest decline in new business for over two years Slight increase in payroll numbers, but business expectations dull Comment: Commenting on the final PMI data, Jonas Feldhusen, Junior Economist

Italy November services PMI 49.2 vs 51.2 expected Read More »

UK September final services PMI 50.8 vs 50.0 prelim

Final Services PMI 50.8 vs. 50.0 expected and 52.0 prior.Final Composite PMI 50.5 vs. 49.9 expected and 51.8 prior. Key findings: Marginal overall rise in business activity in November Staffing numbers decrease for second month running Weakest output growth projections for nearly two years Comment: Tim Moore, Economics Director at S&P Global Market Intelligence, said:

UK September final services PMI 50.8 vs 50.0 prelim Read More »

Eurozone November final services PMI 49.5 vs 49.2 prelim

Prior 51.6Composite PMI 48.3 vs 48.1 prelimPrior 50.0 Despite the slightly better revisions, both the services and composite readings are at 10-month lows. Weak demand conditions are being cited as the main reason new orders declining again and this time at its sharpest rate for this year. Employment conditions are starting to look shaky but

Eurozone November final services PMI 49.5 vs 49.2 prelim Read More »

The Binary Holdings Secures $5 Million from ABO Digital

The Binary Holdings, a $16.9 billion technology leader, today announced a strategic investment of up to $5 million from ABO Digital, a digital asset investment firm providing alternative financing solutions to cryptocurrency projects around the world. This investment will power The Binary Holdings to accelerate its mission of transforming the global digital economy. With a

The Binary Holdings Secures $5 Million from ABO Digital Read More »

Nikkei 225 up 0.2%. South. Korea Kospi opens down -1.97% after martial law tension

The Japan’s Nikkei 225 futures open up 0.15% and the South Korean Kspon opened down -1.97% after martial law was proposed then rejected by parliamentary action. Before the open, South Korea’s regulator said that they are ready to deploy KRW10 trillion stock market stabilization fund at any time to help calm the markets. Also South

Nikkei 225 up 0.2%. South. Korea Kospi opens down -1.97% after martial law tension Read More »

Noctorial: The Leading Proprietary Trading Firm in Spain

In the ever-evolving world of proprietary trading, Noctorial has positioned itself as a leader in Spain and is rapidly gaining attention across Europe and Latin America. Founded in 2022, Noctorial has become a beacon for traders looking to thrive without risking their own capital, thanks to its 2 Phase Funding Program, commitment to transparency and

Noctorial: The Leading Proprietary Trading Firm in Spain Read More »

Reuters Poll: EURUSD unlikely to reach parity over the coming three month (24 of 42)

A Reuters poll of 42 analysts: EURUSD unlikely to reach parity over the coming three months (24 of 42 analysts)EURUSD forecast to trade at 1.05 in three months versus 1.10 in the November poll The EURUSD is currently trading at 1.0505 just above the three-month target level. The low price this week extended to 1.04596.

Reuters Poll: EURUSD unlikely to reach parity over the coming three month (24 of 42) Read More »

Australia Composite PMI final 50.2 versus 49.4 preliminary.

Prior month composite 50.2prior month services PMI 51.0Composite PMI final 50.2 versus 49.4 preliminaryServices final 50.5 versus 49.6 preliminary Getting back above the 50.0 levels versus the preliminary for both the manufacturing and the services PMI is a positive. However, the services index is still lower than plasmas 51.0 and 50.5 this month. The composite

Australia Composite PMI final 50.2 versus 49.4 preliminary. Read More »

BOE governor Bailey expects four rate cuts next year if economic outlook stays the course

Inflation had fallen more rapidly than what was expected a year agoThere are a number of potential paths aheadBut the base case scenario implied is that BOE would stick with more “gradual” rate cutsThis central view means BOE would have to “lean in a bit harder” to keep disinflation process on trackFull transcript (may be

BOE governor Bailey expects four rate cuts next year if economic outlook stays the course Read More »

Wal-Mart CEO says he’s seen some softness in demand since the election

Retaillers haven’t been overly optimistic lately. Best Buy cut its full-year sales forecast last week while Kohl’s struggled after earnings. I think much of that is a shift to online, as Black Friday shopping showed but Wal-Mart is strong online so this is an interesting comment. Shares of WMT took a quick dip afterwards. This

Wal-Mart CEO says he’s seen some softness in demand since the election Read More »

While the USD is little changed vs EUR, JPY, GBP, CHF, CAD,it is running vs the AUD & NZD

While the USD is within 0.12% of unchanged vs the EUR (+0.11)JPY (+0.03)GBP (+0.09%)CHF (+0.07%)CAD (+0.07%) The greenback is running higher vs the AUD and NZD: AUD (+1.03%)NZD (+0.75%) The previous video went through the key technical target which the AUD and the NZD were testing at the time (see video here) Since then, the

While the USD is little changed vs EUR, JPY, GBP, CHF, CAD,it is running vs the AUD & NZD Read More »

PBOC sets USD/ CNY mid-point today at 7.19346 (vs. exp 7.2821)

The People’s Bank of China set the onshore yuan (CNY) reference rate for the trading session ahead. USD/CNY is the onshore yuan. Its permitted to trade plus or minus 2% from this daily reference rate.CNH is the offshore yuan. USD /CNH has no restrictions on its trading range.A significantly stronger or weaker rate than expected

PBOC sets USD/ CNY mid-point today at 7.19346 (vs. exp 7.2821) Read More »

Bank of Korea: Will increase short term liquidity measures starting Wednesday

Bank of Korea (BOK) will increase short-term liquidity measures starting WednesdayWill loosen collateral policies in repo operation to ease any bond market jitters.Will deploy various measures to stabilize FX market as neededWill make any special loans available to inject funds into markets if needed. The Authorities are doing all they can to stabilize markets and

Bank of Korea: Will increase short term liquidity measures starting Wednesday Read More »

Key Contenders for Pentagon Leadership: Ernst, Hagerty, and DeSantis in the Spotlight

CNN is reporting: US Senator Ernst of Iowa is among the names under consideration to replace Hegseth as pick to lead the Pentagon.Trump allies are floating Senator Hagerty of Tennessee for the roleIt was earlier reported that US President-elect Trump is considering Florida Governor DeSantis as a possible replacement The names are pretty much all

Key Contenders for Pentagon Leadership: Ernst, Hagerty, and DeSantis in the Spotlight Read More »

Kickstart the trading day with a technical look at the EURUSD, USDJPY & GBPUSD

The EURUSD, USDJPY and GBPUSD all had up and down trading days yesterday as buyers and sellers continued to battle with no trendl-like moves. How has the price action impacted the technicals that are driving the pairs going into the news trading day. Be aware. Be prepared. The video will outline the most important technical

Kickstart the trading day with a technical look at the EURUSD, USDJPY & GBPUSD Read More »

Salesforce earnings are mixed. EPS $2.41 vs $2.44 est. Revenues $9.44B vs $9.35B est

Salesforce earnings are and and they are mixed EPS $2.41 versus $2.44 expectedRevenues $9.44 billion versus $9.35 billion estimateSubscription revenues beat 8.9 billion versus 8.82 billion estimateQ4 estimates are in line with estimatesSees fiscal year adjusted EPS guidance to $9.98 – $10.03 from $10.03 – $10.11 previous Shares of CRM are trading higher by $12.18

Salesforce earnings are mixed. EPS $2.41 vs $2.44 est. Revenues $9.44B vs $9.35B est Read More »

Crude oil inventories show build of 1.232 million barrels versus -0.671 million estimate

The private weekly oil is within data has been released. Crude oil shown a surprise build of 1.232M barrels. The EIA data scheduled to be released tomorrow are estimating -0.671M drawdown. The estimates for the EIA to be released tomorrow at 10:30 AM ET Crude -0.671 million Gasoline +0.639MDistilates +0.940M Crude oil is trading at

Crude oil inventories show build of 1.232 million barrels versus -0.671 million estimate Read More »

Forexlive Americas FX news wrap: South Korean drama spices up markets

South Korean President declares martial low “to clear out pro-North Korean elements”South Korean parliament votes to block President’s martial law declarationSouth Korean president reverses his martial law declarationUS JOLTS job openings 7.744M vs 7.475M expectedFed’s Daly: December rate cut is absolutely not off the tableFed’s Kugler: Will make decisions meeting by meeting, policy not on

Forexlive Americas FX news wrap: South Korean drama spices up markets Read More »

Tech giants dip, healthcare and telecom rise: A mixed bag in today’s market

Sector Overview Today’s stock market heatmap presents a diverse landscape, with sectors like technology and consumer cyclical facing challenges, while healthcare and communication services showcase resilience. 📉 Technology: A noticeable dip in technology stocks highlights investor caution. Key player Oracle (ORCL) fell by 0.84%, and Adobe (ADBE) saw a decline of 1.37%. However, Nvidia (NVDA)

Tech giants dip, healthcare and telecom rise: A mixed bag in today’s market Read More »

South Korean President declares martial low “to clear out pro-North Korean elements”

South Korean President Yoon declares martial law: Says through martial law he will rebuild a free and democratic countryGovernment administration has been paralyzed because of opposition party conducts What is going on in South Korea? This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

South Korean President declares martial low “to clear out pro-North Korean elements” Read More »

One of the five key economic releases highlighted by Waller will be released today

Yesterday, Fed Governor Chris Waller highlighted 5 economic releases that could sway his decision-making around the December 18 FOMC. The first on the list is out today at 10 am ET. Waller cited five specific indicators that could sway him: Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS): today at 10 am ETNon-farm payrolls report: December

One of the five key economic releases highlighted by Waller will be released today Read More »

Fed’s Kugler: Will make decisions meeting by meeting, policy not on a pre-set course

Oct PCE data consistent as of now with a return to 2% inflationContinuation of disinflation, modest job market cooling show Fed goals roughly in balanceRate cuts so far were steps in removing policy restraint, Fed in process of moving toward more-neutral levelCurrent policy well-positioned to deal with uncertaintyWill vigilantly monitor for risks, negative supply shocks

Fed’s Kugler: Will make decisions meeting by meeting, policy not on a pre-set course Read More »

ECB’s Cipollone: Trump tariffs could lead to reduction in growth, inflation in Europe

US tariffs have the potential to weaken European economyThat will lead to lower consumption and reduced pressure on pricesThat makes me think we will have a reduction in growth and inflation It’s a bit of an opposing view on prices though most would agree on the impact on the economy at least. On the former

ECB’s Cipollone: Trump tariffs could lead to reduction in growth, inflation in Europe Read More »

South Korean troops attempt to enter main parliament hall – report

Television footage shows that South Korea’s martial command forces are entering the parliament area and now attempting to enter the main parliament hall. Earlier today the president declared martial law. The US-listed South Korean ETF ($EWY) is down 7% to the lowest in two years. I also think the bids in bitcoin might be related

South Korean troops attempt to enter main parliament hall – report Read More »

The Dai Lo Announces Acquisition of Fractal Network

Dai Lo is thrilled to announce the successful acquisition of Fractal, which marks a pivotal moment for the future of blockchain technology and privacy innovation. After months of strategic discussions, the acquisition, completed for an undisclosed amount, positions The Dai Lo to harness Fractal’s groundbreaking ZK technology and revitalize its vision for the future. The

The Dai Lo Announces Acquisition of Fractal Network Read More »

Forexlive European FX news: Swiss CPI comes in line with forecasts

OPEC+ likely to prolong oil cuts for Q1China announces further export ban on critical minerals to the USECB’s Cipollone: Trump tariffs could lead to reduction in growth, inflation in EuropeDollar sits tentatively lower in European morning tradeEuropean indices open slightly higher to start the dayWhat are the main events for today?Switzerland November CPI +0.7% vs

Forexlive European FX news: Swiss CPI comes in line with forecasts Read More »

Yen and bonds rise in safe haven trade after South Korea declares martial law

Opposition party members say the entrance to parliament is blocked as they try to overturn a shock announcement by the president of martial law in South Korea. Opposition leader Lee Jae-myung said “Yoon declared martial law illegally and unconstitutionally against the people”. He said members of the military may try to arrest lawmakers. The South

Yen and bonds rise in safe haven trade after South Korea declares martial law Read More »

AUDUSD Technical Analysis – The rangebound price action continues

Fundamental Overview The US Dollar continues to consolidate around the highs as the market reached the peak in the repricing of interest rates expectations and it will need stronger reasons to price out the remaining rate cuts for 2025. This was signalled by the lack of US Dollar strength after lots of strong US data

AUDUSD Technical Analysis – The rangebound price action continues Read More »

Japan sells 2.0 tn 10 year JGB at average yield of 1.084%

Japan sells JPY 2.0tn 10-year JGB: Bid-to-cover ratio: 3.12x (previous: 3.13x)Average yield: 1.084% (previous: 0.997%) Auction details: Lowest accepted price: 98.32 (previous: 98.08)Average accepted price: 98.37 (previous: 98.12)Tail in price: 0.05 (previous: 0.04) Meanwhile, the Nikkei 225 contuns to move higher and has a gain of 2.01% This article was written by Greg Michalowski at

Japan sells 2.0 tn 10 year JGB at average yield of 1.084% Read More »

USDCHF Technical Analysis – The peak in rate cuts repricing weighs on the USD

Fundamental Overview The US Dollar continues to consolidate around the highs as the market reached the peak in the repricing of interest rates expectations and it will need stronger reasons to price out the remaining rate cuts for 2025. This was signalled by the lack of US Dollar strength after lots of strong US data

USDCHF Technical Analysis – The peak in rate cuts repricing weighs on the USD Read More »

PBOC sets USD/ CNY mid-point today at 7.1996 (vs. estimate at 7.2702)

The People’s Bank of China set the onshore yuan (CNY) reference rate for the trading session ahead. USD/CNY is the onshore yuan. Its permitted to trade plus or minus 2% from this daily reference rate.CNH is the offshore yuan. USD /CNH has no restrictions on its trading range.A significantly stronger or weaker rate than expected

PBOC sets USD/ CNY mid-point today at 7.1996 (vs. estimate at 7.2702) Read More »

Goldman Sachs: We expect Trump’s tariff increase to fuel USD strength in 2025

Goldman Sachs anticipates President-elect Trump’s proposed tariff hikes—expected to be double the size of the previous round—combined with tax cuts, to significantly bolster the USD in 2025, despite initial market volatility. Key Points: Aggressive Tariff Strategy: President Trump’s proposals target China, Mexico, and Canada, signaling his preference for tariffs as a unilateral and impactful policy

Goldman Sachs: We expect Trump’s tariff increase to fuel USD strength in 2025 Read More »

Forexlive Americas FX news wrap: US dollar starts strong but gives it back

US November ISM manufacturing survey 48.4 vs 47.5 expectedUS November final S&P Global manufacturing PMI 49.7 vs 48.8 prelimFed’s Waller speech: ‘I lean towards supporting a cut in December’Waller Q&A: Average inflation target framework “blew up” very quicklySad day for markets: Art Cashin dead at 83Fed’s Bostic: Not going into December meeting with the sense

Forexlive Americas FX news wrap: US dollar starts strong but gives it back Read More »

Smile Shop Joins Conflux PayFi Ecosystem with BitUnion Prepaid Card

Smile Shop, the premier Asian e-commerce platform, has partnered with Conflux Network, China’s only regulatory-compliant public blockchain, to launch the BitUnion prepaid card. This partnership signifies a major expansion into global digital asset payment with cards welcome in 183 countries and regions. The BitUnion prepaid card operates on the recently launched UnionPay International USD prepaid

Smile Shop Joins Conflux PayFi Ecosystem with BitUnion Prepaid Card Read More »

China lifts final trade restrictions on Australia meat exporters

China has officially lifted its ban on two more of Australia’s meat processing facilities, meaning it has now removed all restrictions on all 10 Australian abattoirs that it has banned between 2020 and 2022. For some context, the trade restrictions went into place amid the fallout between the two countries during the time. That came

China lifts final trade restrictions on Australia meat exporters Read More »

NZDUSD Technical Analysis – Awaiting key catalysts for the next major move

Fundamental Overview The US Dollar continues to consolidate around the highs as the market reached the peak in the repricing of interest rates expectations and it will need stronger reasons to price out the remaining rate cuts for 2025. This was signalled by the lack of US Dollar strength after lots of strong US data

NZDUSD Technical Analysis – Awaiting key catalysts for the next major move Read More »

Streamr and JDI Announce Strategic Partnership with Terminal Multi-Miner for Home Mining

Streamr, the decentralized real-time data network, and JDI, a manufacturing leader and venture capital in decentralized physical infrastructure networks (DePIN), are teaming up to transform home-based mining through the launch of the Terminal Multi-Miner. This new mining device combines multi-token mining capabilities with decentralized protocol participation, providing a new way for users to engage with

Streamr and JDI Announce Strategic Partnership with Terminal Multi-Miner for Home Mining Read More »

China announces further export ban on critical minerals to the US

The ban will go into effect immediately, as according to the directive from the Chinese commerce ministry. They cite “safeguarding national security and interests” as for the reasoning to implement the ban. And this continues with the retaliatory measure that China has been pursuing against the US since last year. No doubt that this is

China announces further export ban on critical minerals to the US Read More »

AUDUSD sellers come in at key swing area resistance and are pushing back to the downside

The AUD/USD moved lower yesterday, testing a key swing area between 0.6433 and 0.6442. Selling pressure eased as the price reached the upper boundary of this zone, where buyers stepped in and the pair rebounded into the close. This recovery pushed the price into a higher swing area between 0.6471 and 0.64817, but the upside

AUDUSD sellers come in at key swing area resistance and are pushing back to the downside Read More »

Gold Technical Analysis – The market awaits key catalysts for the next direction

Fundamental Overview Gold continues to consolidate around the major trendline and the 2600 support as the market awaits the US CPI report next week before picking a direction. In the bigger picture, the trend remains bullish amid the Fed’s easing cycle, but the short-term corrections will likely be triggered by the repricing in rate cuts

Gold Technical Analysis – The market awaits key catalysts for the next direction Read More »

GBPUSD falls on Monday but bounces off a key downside target What next?

The GBP/USD moved lower on Monday after peaking near a swing area around 1.27159, where sellers emerged to cap the upside. The subsequent decline saw the pair break below several key technical levels, including the 100-bar moving average on the 4-hour chart (1.2676), the 100-hour moving average (1.2666), and the 200-hour moving average (1.26244). The

GBPUSD falls on Monday but bounces off a key downside target What next? Read More »

New Zealand data: Q3 2024 Terms of trade +2.4% q/q (expected +1.8%)

Prior quarter 2.0%Terms of trade +2.4% versus 1.8% expected % q/qYoY x.x% vs -1.6% last quarterExport Prices +0.7.x% q/q vs 5.2% last quarter. Expected 1.4%Import Prices -1.7% vs +3.1% last quarter. Expected -0.6% Other details: Total exports of goods and services for the September 2024 quarter were $22.2 billion, up from $21.5 billion in the

New Zealand data: Q3 2024 Terms of trade +2.4% q/q (expected +1.8%) Read More »

USDJPY traders are looking to the upside after bouncing off key MA support

The USD/JPY experienced a volatile session yesterday, initially moving higher before reversing lower. This decline occurred despite a modest rise in yields. Commentary from Fed officials offered mixed signals, with Fed’s Waller leaning toward a rate cut and Fed’s Bostic taking a more non-committal stance. Meanwhile, ISM data was mixed, adding to the uncertainty, but

USDJPY traders are looking to the upside after bouncing off key MA support Read More »

Forexlive Asia-pacific FX news wrap 2 Dec: Nikkei 225 up 2.25%.Australia stocks at record.

NZDUSD buyers trying to hold support and start a correction higher run.FX option expiries for 3 December 10am New York cutJapan sells 2.0 tn 10 year JGB at average yield of 1.084%Nikkei 225 index up 1.73%USDCNH rises to highest level since early JulyAustralia Current account balance -14.1B vs -10.0B estimateGBPUSD falls on Monday but bounces

Forexlive Asia-pacific FX news wrap 2 Dec: Nikkei 225 up 2.25%.Australia stocks at record. Read More »

NY Fed Pres. Williams: Expects more rate cuts to happen over time

New York Fed President John Williams says He expects more rate cuts to happen over time.Monetary policy remains in restrictive stance.What the Fed does with policy depends on incoming data.Outlook for economy and policy remains ‘highly uncertain.’Expects US GDP at 2.5% this year, might be higher.Sees unemployment rate between 4%-4.25% over coming months.Expects US inflation

NY Fed Pres. Williams: Expects more rate cuts to happen over time Read More »

France no-confidence vote likely to come on Wednesday

French left and right wing parties have both pledged to bring down Michel Barnier’s government and Reuters reports that the vote is likely Wednesday. The move comes after Barnier and Macron tried to use constitutional amendments to push through a budget. If the no-confidence vote passes (and nothing is certain in French politics) Barnier would

France no-confidence vote likely to come on Wednesday Read More »

Fed’s Bostic: Not going into December meeting with the sense that outcome preordained

Not going into December meeting with a sense that the outcome is preordained, coming data will be important; keeping options openStill an open question how fast and by how much rates need to be cut to keep inflation declining while avoiding undue damage to the job marketRisks to inflation, employment mandates are roughly in balance,

Fed’s Bostic: Not going into December meeting with the sense that outcome preordained Read More »

PBOC governor Pan says will maintain supportive monetary policy stance for next year

To continue supportive monetary policy direction next yearWill strengthen counter-cyclical adjustmentsWill promote stable developments of real estate, capital marketsWil enhance monitoring of M2 and other levels of money supply, social liquidity The language on monetary policy this year has been consistent in that they will make it “supportive”. It looks like with the troubling state

PBOC governor Pan says will maintain supportive monetary policy stance for next year Read More »

US dollar climbs as manufacturing surveys highlight rush to buy supplies

The US Dollar Index has extended today’s gain to 0.8% on broad strength. It’s particularly strong against the euro, which is struggling as France’s left and right wing opposition appear to be united in efforts to oust Barnier after he invoked constitutional rules to push through a budget. EUR/USD is down 105 pips to 1.0470,

US dollar climbs as manufacturing surveys highlight rush to buy supplies Read More »

US November fial S&P Global manufacturing PMI 49.7 vs 48.8 prelim

Prelim was 48.8Prior was 48.5 The ISM manufacturing index is due at the top of the hour. This is a nice bump from the prelim number and likely reflects post-election optimism. I would add upside risks to ISM manufacturing from the 47.5 consensus (which follows 46.5 prior). Chris Williamson, Chief Business Economist at S&P Global

US November fial S&P Global manufacturing PMI 49.7 vs 48.8 prelim Read More »

Italy November manufacturing PMI 44.5 vs 45.7 expected

Manufacturing PMI 44.5 vs. 45.7 expected and 46.9 prior. Key findings: Sharper declines in new orders and output Steep drop in purchasing activity helps cost pressures cool Most pronounced depletion in backlogged work for over 15 years Comment: Commenting on the PMI data, Jonas Feldhusen, Junior Economist at Hamburg Commercial Bank, said: “The Italian manufacturing

Italy November manufacturing PMI 44.5 vs 45.7 expected Read More »

Atlanta Fed GDPNow +3.2% vs +2.7% prior

This is the highest reading so far for the GDP tracker, though it’s still very early. The Atlanta Fed reports:” After this morning’s construction spending release from the US Census Bureau, and the Manufacturing ISM Report on Business from the Institute for Supply Management, the nowcasts of fourth-quarter real personal consumption expenditures growth and fourth-quarter

Atlanta Fed GDPNow +3.2% vs +2.7% prior Read More »

Netanyahu: Conditions are ready after the end of the war in the north, to deal wi. Gaza

Geropolitics. Isreals Netanyahu told a mother of a hostage: Conditions are ready after the end of the war in the north to complete a deal in GazaNetanyahu held a security discussion iwth the aim of reaching a deal in Gaza on Sunday eveningHe was warned that the Army’s continued dismantling of Hamas could lose control

Netanyahu: Conditions are ready after the end of the war in the north, to deal wi. Gaza Read More »

Eurozone November final manufacturing PMI 45.2 vs 45.2 prelim

Prior 46.0 The biggest drags to Eurozone manufacturing activity on the month are Germany, France, and Italy. Sustained weakness in demand conditions is arguably the biggest factor but Germany also saw its steepest decline in employment conditions since August 2020. That’s not a good indication as the downturn looks to persist into next year. HCOB

Eurozone November final manufacturing PMI 45.2 vs 45.2 prelim Read More »

Tesla accelerates gains while healthcare and tech show mixed moves

Sector Overview In today’s trading session, the consumer cyclical sector shines, driven by an impressive performance from Tesla (TSLA), which surged by 2.64%. This upward momentum suggests investors’ growing confidence in the auto manufacturer’s prospects. In contrast, the technology sector showcases mixed results. Notably, Microsoft (MSFT) dipped slightly by 0.34%, whereas the semiconductor giant Advanced

Tesla accelerates gains while healthcare and tech show mixed moves Read More »

US November ISM manufacturing survey 48.4 vs 47.5 expected

Prior was 46.5Prices Paid 50.3 vs 54.8 priorNew Orders 50.4 vs 47.1 prior — returned to expansionProduction 46.8 vs 46.2 priorEmployment 48.1 vs 44.4 priorSupplier Deliveries 48.7 vs 52.0 prior Inventories 48.1 vs 42.6 priorBacklog of Orders 41.8 vs 42.3 priorNew Export Orders 48.7 vs 45.5 priorImports 47.6 vs 48.3 priorCustomers’ Inventories 48.4 vs 46.8

US November ISM manufacturing survey 48.4 vs 47.5 expected Read More »

Nasdaq breaks the early-November high as big cap tech leads the way

When you look at the performance of Nasdaq stocks in November, there were far more gainers than losers but what stands out here is the struggles of big-cap tech stocks, likely on some kind of post-election rotation. Today, they’re trying to fix that with as last month’s laggards strengthen. MSFT +1.8%META +2.2%GOOG +1.6%NVDA +0.3%AVGO +2.5%LLY

Nasdaq breaks the early-November high as big cap tech leads the way Read More »

French PM Barnier to use special powers to adopt social security budget bill

The euro has been struggling today partly due to French political intrigue and the stalemate in parliament. PM Barnier has now invoked special constitutional powers to pass the budget, something I warned he could do last week. Le Pen has taken the stance that the government won’t negotiate and warned of chaos if he makes

French PM Barnier to use special powers to adopt social security budget bill Read More »

ForexLive European FX news wrap: Dollar holds gains, euro struggles on French politics

Headlines: Dollar in charge to kick start December tradingEuro falls as French political quagmire weighsFrench government makes further concessions to appease Le Pen’s far-right partyWeekly update on interest rate expectationsECB’s Lane: At some point, monetary policy needs to be driven by upcoming risksECB’s Kazāks: In my view, rate cuts must continueECB’s Kazāks: We are likely

ForexLive European FX news wrap: Dollar holds gains, euro struggles on French politics Read More »

Germany November final manufacturing PMI 43.0 vs 43.2 prelim

Final Manufacturing PMI 43.0 vs. 43.2 expected and 43.0 prior. Key findings: HCOB Germany Manufacturing PMI at 43.0 (Oct: 43.0). Unchanged. HCOB Germany Manufacturing PMI Output Index at 43.1 (Oct: 42.8). 5-month high. Employment, purchasing activity and stocks all fall at faster rates Comment: Commenting on the PMI data, Dr. Cyrus de la Rubia, Chief

Germany November final manufacturing PMI 43.0 vs 43.2 prelim Read More »

Eyes on retailers as we get indications from Black Friday shopping

Here are some indications in the pre-market from top retailers: WMT +0.5%TGT -0.1%AMZN +1.0%SHOP -0.2% Here are some headlines from spending trackers: Mastercard Spendingpulse black friday sales up 3.4% vs last yearOnline sales were up 14.6% while in-store up 0.7% (I assume these numbers aren’t inflation adjusted)Adobe analytics says online sales up 10.2% y/yRetailNext says

Eyes on retailers as we get indications from Black Friday shopping Read More »

easyMarkets Launches ‘Trade with the Champions’ Competition

easyMarkets a leading Forex/CFD Broker, has officially announced the launch of its ‘Trade with the Champions’ competition, set to take place from December 2, 2024, to January 15, 2025. This competition is open to both new and existing traders, offering them an exclusive opportunity to test their strategies and compete for prestigious prizes, recognizing excellence

easyMarkets Launches ‘Trade with the Champions’ Competition Read More »

Forexlive Asia-pacific FX news wrap 1 Dec: The USD is off to a bullish start for the week.

Geopolitics: Not in stage of optimism, but have made progress toward deal with HamasNetanyahu: Conditions are ready after the end of the war in the north, to deal wi. GazaChina’s Caixan S&P Global Manufacturing PMI 51.5 vs 50.3 in OctoberPBOC sets USD/ CNY mid-point today at 7.1865 (vs. estimate at 7.2384)Japan manufacturing PMI for November

Forexlive Asia-pacific FX news wrap 1 Dec: The USD is off to a bullish start for the week. Read More »

Shares of SMCI jump 20% after the company says it won’t restate financials

Shares of Super Micro Computer (NASDAQ: SMCI) jumped 20% in the premarket following a company announcement that an independent special committee found no evidence of misconduct by management or the Board of Directors. Special Committee, backed by Cooley LLP and forensic accountants Secretariat Advisors, completed their review with no evidence of wrongdoing foundNo restatement of

Shares of SMCI jump 20% after the company says it won’t restate financials Read More »

ECB’s Lane: At some point, monetary policy needs to be driven by upcoming risks

At some point, policy needs to be driven by upcoming risks rather than being backward-lookingBut that is once we are sure inflation is in line to hit 2% targetThere is a little bit of distance to go in that regardServices inflation needs to come down furtherOnce disinflation process is completed, monetary policy needs to be

ECB’s Lane: At some point, monetary policy needs to be driven by upcoming risks Read More »

French government makes further concessions to appease Le Pen’s far-right party

The initial proposal was that they wanted to reduce the reimbursements, so they’re now abandoning their plan in pursuing that. This was a sticking point in negotiations for the budget and the far-right had used this as a key factor in pushing for a no confidence motion against Michel Barnier’s government. We’ll see if it

French government makes further concessions to appease Le Pen’s far-right party Read More »

French stocks lead losses in Europe at the open today

Eurostoxx -0.6%Germany DAX -0.1%France CAC 40 -1.2%UK FTSE -0.1%Spain IBEX -0.4%Italy FTSE MIB -0.7% Michel Barnier’s government have only until this afternoon to set out a compromise on the budget with Le Pen’s far-right party. However, the latter has arguably already made up their mind in pursuing a non confidence motion against the government. And

French stocks lead losses in Europe at the open today Read More »

S&P Global Canada November manufacturing PMI 52.0 vs 51.1 prior

Prior was 51.1Best reading since February 2023Output growth strongest in 2.5 yearsNew orders up at fastest pace in 21 monthsPort strikes and railway disruptions causing delivery delays Key pressure points: Input cost inflation at 18-month high on USD strengthExport orders down for 15th straight monthBusiness optimism dips to lowest since July Comments from Paul Smith

S&P Global Canada November manufacturing PMI 52.0 vs 51.1 prior Read More »

PBOC sets USD/ CNY mid-point today at 7.1865 (vs. estimate at 7.2384)

The People’s Bank of China set the onshore yuan (CNY) reference rate for the trading session ahead. USD/CNY is the onshore yuan. Its permitted to trade plus or minus 2% from this daily reference rate.CNH is the offshore yuan. USD /CNH has no restrictions on its trading range.A significantly stronger or weaker rate than expected

PBOC sets USD/ CNY mid-point today at 7.1865 (vs. estimate at 7.2384) Read More »

Pepeto, Pepe Unchained Introduce Zero Fee Trading & Cross Chain Solutions vs Layer 2 Tech

As Bitcoin edges closer to the $100K milestone, the crypto market is preparing for a pivotal new cycle. Historically, BTC surges spark altcoin rallies, with liquidity eventually flowing into the memecoin sector. In this environment, projects with strong narratives and valuable utilities take center stage. Among them, Pepeto, the God of Frogs, is emerging as

Pepeto, Pepe Unchained Introduce Zero Fee Trading & Cross Chain Solutions vs Layer 2 Tech Read More »

Altcoin Season Is Here: Investor Greed Fuels Bullish Market – Don’t Miss This Top Altcoin!

The current state of the cryptocurrency market, with Bitcoin’s dominance and a high “Greed” sentiment on the Fear and Greed Index, points toward significant ongoing investor enthusiasm. This, combined with the recent ETF inflows and Bitcoin’s strong market share of 58.2%, suggests a favorable environment for Bitcoin and select large-cap assets in the near term.

Altcoin Season Is Here: Investor Greed Fuels Bullish Market – Don’t Miss This Top Altcoin! Read More »

ThinkMarkets Receives Two Prestigious Industry Awards

ThinkMarkets, a leading online trading provider, has further solidified its reputation as an industry innovator by receiving two prestigious awards from renowned publications. Investors’ Chronicle Award One of the UK’s top financial markets magazines, published by the Financial Times Group, recognised ThinkMarkets as a leading Spread Betting Provider. The magazine’s audience evaluated spread betting providers

ThinkMarkets Receives Two Prestigious Industry Awards Read More »

EURUSD tests key 200 hour MA and finds support buyer but with more work to do

The EURUSD has pushed lower in the new trading day/week and in the process has moved below the 100 hour MA at 1.05328 and down to test its 200 hour arrears or 1.05174. The price has bounced modestly off that moving average as risk focus buyers will to lean against support. However, the price remains

EURUSD tests key 200 hour MA and finds support buyer but with more work to do Read More »

Spain November manufacturing PMI 53.1 vs 53.5 expected

Manufacturing PMI 53.1 vs 53.5 expected and 54.5 prior. Key findings: Regional flooding reported to have limited growth Output, new orders and employment nonetheless rise solidly Confidence in outlook remains positive Comment: Commenting on the PMI data, Jonas Feldhusen, Junior Economist at Hamburg Commercial Bank, said: “The Spanish manufacturing sector continued its expansion in November

Spain November manufacturing PMI 53.1 vs 53.5 expected Read More »

ECB’s Kazāks: We are likely to discuss bigger rate cut in December but uncertainty is high

Considering economic developments, it would make sense for them to discuss a potential 50 bps rate cut. But as the job is not quite done yet on inflation, it may be an overreach to move that quickly especially with core inflation still seen at 2.7% in the latest report here. The disinflation process is facing

ECB’s Kazāks: We are likely to discuss bigger rate cut in December but uncertainty is high Read More »

Japan manufacturing PMI for November 49.0 versus 49.0 previous

Japan’s factory activity fellin November at its fastest pace in eight months due to soft demand, prompting firms to reduce production. Manufacturing PMI: The final au Jibun Bank Japan manufacturing PMI fell to 49.0 in November, the lowest since March, down from 49.2 in October.The index stayed below the 50.0 threshold (indicating contraction) for the

Japan manufacturing PMI for November 49.0 versus 49.0 previous Read More »

France November final manufacturing PMI 43.1 vs 43.2 prelim

Prior 44.5 It’s a light change compared to the initial estimate but reaffirms further downside in French manufacturing activity on the month. New order suffered its steepest drop since the first wave of the Covid pandemic as demand conditions remain extremely subdued – both domestically and internationally. That’s the main drag for the French industry

France November final manufacturing PMI 43.1 vs 43.2 prelim Read More »

UK November final manufacturing PMI 48.0 vs. 48.6 prelim

Final Manufacturing PMI 48.0 vs. 48.6 expected and 49.9 prior. Key findings: Output contracts as new orders fall Cost concerns lead to job cuts Supply chain stresses increase Comment: Rob Dobson, Director at S&P Global Market Intelligence: “Conditions in the UK manufacturing sector deteriorated again in November. The headline PMI fell to a nine-month low

UK November final manufacturing PMI 48.0 vs. 48.6 prelim Read More »

Geopolitics: Not in stage of optimism, but have made progress toward deal with Hamas

The Israeli broadcasting Corporation cited source familiar with negotiations with Hamas stated they are not in a stage optimism, but are making progress. Hamas insists on stopping the war and without that no breakthrough will be achieved This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

Geopolitics: Not in stage of optimism, but have made progress toward deal with Hamas Read More »

Switzerland November manufacturing PMI 48.5 vs 49.4 expected

Prior 49.9 Swiss manufacturing activity slipped back in November, after a bounce seen in the months before. Both output and new orders expanded marginally but at a softer pace than in October. Meanwhile, employment conditions continue to ease further. Procure notes that if economic conditions in the Eurozone don’t recover, it will lead to the

Switzerland November manufacturing PMI 48.5 vs 49.4 expected Read More »

Latest US trade restrictions reportedly set to hit China’s semiconductor industry

The latest measures will see the US add roughly a dozen Chinese toolmakers and their subsidiaries/affiliates to the Commerce Department’s restricted trade list. In total, this will restrict exports to 140 companies in what is the third crackdown in three years on the Chinese semiconductor industry. This will be one of Biden’s last moves in

Latest US trade restrictions reportedly set to hit China’s semiconductor industry Read More »

USDCAD moves up to retest the 100 hour MA and broken 38.2% retracement

The USDCAD is climbing higher at the start of the new trading week, supported by the USD’s upward momentum. The pair is approaching two significant technical levels: the 100-bar moving average (MA) on the 4-hour chart and the broken 38.2% retracement of November’s trading range. These levels were breached on Friday, but the move lacked

USDCAD moves up to retest the 100 hour MA and broken 38.2% retracement Read More »

Modest and mixed changes in the major currency pairs to start the new trading week

The major currency pairs are off and running….well walking…. with modest changes to start the new trading week. Versus the USD: EUR +0.06%JPY -0.08%GBP+0.03%CHF UnchangedCAD -0.08%AUD-0.05%NZD +0.03% Bitcoin closed on Friday at $97,512 and the digital currency is trading at $97,522 after reaching a high of $97,880 (today) and a low at $95,758 (on Saturday).

Modest and mixed changes in the major currency pairs to start the new trading week Read More »

AUDUSD falls with the gain in the USD today and finds support buyers near the 100 hour MA

The AUDUSD has faced persistent resistance at the falling 100-bar moving average (MA) on the 4-hour chart, attempting to break above it three times over the past five trading days. Each attempt, including the most recent on Friday, failed to generate sustained upward momentum, and the price closed below the MA, currently at 0.65146. Current

AUDUSD falls with the gain in the USD today and finds support buyers near the 100 hour MA Read More »

Japanese capital expenditures for the Q3 2024 rises by 8.1% versus 7.4% last quarter

Prior quarter +7.4%Business capital expenditures 8.1% versus 7.4% previous quarterCapital spending YoY (Q3) it will percent versus 6.7% expected. Prev 7.4%Company sales YoY (Q3) 2.6% versus 3.2% expected. Prior quarter 3.5%Company Profits YoY QQ3 -3.3% vs previous 13.2% Modest increase in the Japan Capex for the quarter This article was written by Greg Michalowski at

Japanese capital expenditures for the Q3 2024 rises by 8.1% versus 7.4% last quarter Read More »

Trade ideas thread – Monday, 2 December, insightful charts, technical analysis, ideas

New month. New week. New day. Good morning, afternoon and evening all. Any charts, technical analysis, trade ideas, thoughts, views, ForexLive traders would like to share and discuss with fellow ForexLive traders, please do so: This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

Trade ideas thread – Monday, 2 December, insightful charts, technical analysis, ideas Read More »

NZ Building Consents -5.2% vs 2.4% last month

Prior month 2.6% revised to 2.4%New Zealand October Building consents -5.2% Details Key Facts Seasonal Trends: New dwellings consented decreased by 5.2% in October 2024 (seasonally adjusted), following a 2.4% rise in September 2024.Annual Totals:33,467 new dwellings consented in the year ended October 2024, a 16% decrease from the year ended October 2023.The annual value

NZ Building Consents -5.2% vs 2.4% last month Read More »

Weekly Market Outlook (02-06 December)

UPCOMING EVENTS: Monday: Australia Retail Sales, China Caixin Manufacturing PMI, Switzerland Retail Sales, Switzerland Manufacturing PMI, Eurozone Unemployment Rate, Canada Manufacturing PMI, US ISM Manufacturing PMI, Fed’s Waller.Tuesday: Switzerland CPI, US Job Openings.Wednesday: Australia Q3 GDP, China Caixin Services PMI, Eurozone PPI, US ADP, Canada Services PMI, US ISM Services PMI, Fed Chair Powell.Thursday: Switzerland

Weekly Market Outlook (02-06 December) Read More »

Trump weekend tweet roundup: ‘Productive’ meeting with Trudeau and a BRICS rant

Trump has been blasting away on Truth Social. First off, Trudeau flew down to Mar-a-Lago to meet with him and they’re smiling in the picture. The tweet (or whatever you call it) is mostly upbeat. Separately, Trump went on a rant about BRICS countries and not using the dollar. This is a canard, Trump will

Trump weekend tweet roundup: ‘Productive’ meeting with Trudeau and a BRICS rant Read More »

December forex seasonals: What’s hot, cold and gold in the month of December

The hours of November trading are ticking down but jingle bells are ringing in the distance. That means that December trading is on the way and it’s the most wonderful time of the year for bulls. Risk assets tend to do well in December but for stocks, the period late in the month (after Christmas)

December forex seasonals: What’s hot, cold and gold in the month of December Read More »

China official manufacturing PMI improves while the services PMI slips

China released its official PMIs for November and the numbers are a mixed bag as Beijing contemplates further stimulus for 2025: Manufacturing 50.3 vs 50.1 prior (50.2 was expected)Non-manufacturing 50.0 vs 50.2 priorComposite 50.8 This is the second straight month of gains for the manufacturing index. On Friday, I highlighted fresh rumors about Chinese stimulus.

China official manufacturing PMI improves while the services PMI slips Read More »

Canadian banks see a strong case for a 50 basis point rate cut

The headline from today’s Canadian GDP report is that growth declined on a per-capita basis for the sixth consecutive quarter. In addition, monthly GDP data showed just 0.1% m/m growth in September and October. CIBC writes: “While growth in the Canadian economy slowed to a crawl in Q3, that was broadly anticipated and was mainly

Canadian banks see a strong case for a 50 basis point rate cut Read More »

Tech giants face mixed fortunes: Semiconductors rise while software retreats

Sector Overview The stock market presented a mixed bag today, with notable discrepancies between the performance of tech giants and semiconductor stocks. The Technology sector saw varied outcomes. While Microsoft (MSFT) dipped by 0.81%, semiconductor leader Nvidia (NVDA) climbed 0.86%, signaling a shift in investor focus within the sector. Semiconductors: The semiconductor sector experienced a

Tech giants face mixed fortunes: Semiconductors rise while software retreats Read More »

Tokyo area November inflation data, a big jump higher: Headline 2.6% y/y (prior 1.8%)

Tokyo area November 2024 inflation data has jumped much higher: USD/JPY has dropped, this data is a solid point in favour of a Bank of Japan interest rate hike at its December 18-19 meeting. There won’t be a ‘national/ November CPI data release prior to the December BoJ meeting, but with a jump like this

Tokyo area November inflation data, a big jump higher: Headline 2.6% y/y (prior 1.8%) Read More »

European equity close: DAX leads the way as more rate cuts seen following CPI

Closing changes in Europe: Stoxx 600 +0.6%German DAX +1.0%France CAC +0.7%UK FTSE 100 flatSpain IBEX +0.3%Italy’s FTSE MIB +0.4% On the week: Stoxx 600 +0.4%German DAX +1.6%France CAC -0.2%UK FTSE 100 +0.3%Spain IBEX flatItaly’s FTSE MIB -0.25% It was a poor start to the week in Europe but turned around nicely on Thursday and Friday.

European equity close: DAX leads the way as more rate cuts seen following CPI Read More »

The Mexican peso tells you how seriously the market is taking the tariff threat

The Mexican peso is scarcely lower than where it was when Trump first announced he would be putting a 25% tariff on all exports from the country, including oil & gas. The market barely believed it at the outset because it would drive up prices for American, badly hurt American companies operating in Mexico and

The Mexican peso tells you how seriously the market is taking the tariff threat Read More »

ForexLive European FX news wrap: USD/JPY stays pinned down, Eurozone core inflation steady

Headlines: USD/JPY tests 150.00 mark after Tokyo inflation speeds upGold Technical Analysis – The path of least resistance remains to the upsideEurozone November preliminary CPI +2.3% vs +2.3% y/y expectedFrance November preliminary CPI +1.3% vs +1.5% y/y expectedItaly November preliminary CPI +1.4% vs +1.4% y/y expectedFrance Q3 final GDP +0.4% vs +0.4% q/q prelimSwitzerland Q3

ForexLive European FX news wrap: USD/JPY stays pinned down, Eurozone core inflation steady Read More »

Canada Q3 GDP +1.0% vs +1.0% expected

The Q2 reading was +2.1% annualizedQ/Q reading +0.3% vs +0.5% priorQ/Q implicit price index +0.6% vs +1.1% priorGov’t spending rose 1.1% in the quarterHousehold spending rose 0.9% in the quarterBusiness spending on machinery and equipment decreased 7.8% in the quarterHousing investment +0.8% in the quarter, the first expansion since the third quarter of 2023Corporate income

Canada Q3 GDP +1.0% vs +1.0% expected Read More »

No Thanksgiving hangover for US stocks as S&P 500 extends gain to 30 points

The S&P 500 has extended today’s gain to 30 points, or 0.5%. The Nasdaq Composite is outperforming, up 0.75%. Here is something the bulls will be happy to see. The AAII member survey is down to 37% bullish, which certainly isn’t a red flag around sentiment, especially going into the most-bullish month of the year.

No Thanksgiving hangover for US stocks as S&P 500 extends gain to 30 points Read More »

European indices keep more tentative at the open in final trading day of the month

Eurostoxx -0.1%Germany DAX +0.1%France CAC 40 flatUK FTSE +0.1%Spain IBEX -0.3%Italy FTSE MIB -0.1% The changes are light but it reaffirms a more tentative mood in kicking off the final trading day of November. On the month itself, this is how regional indices are faring: Eurostoxx -1.6%Germany DAX +1.9%France CAC 40 -2.3%UK FTSE +2.2%Spain IBEX

European indices keep more tentative at the open in final trading day of the month Read More »

Ten-year Treasury yields fall below the 200-day moving average. USD/JPY falls through 150

There is a healthy debate about what’s causing the drop in Treasury yields this week. Some argue it’s month end flows and rebalancing, while others argue that it’s due to Trump’s pick of Scott Bessent as Treasury Secretary and hints that Kevin Warsh will be Fed chair. I’m sympathetic to the latter and worries about

Ten-year Treasury yields fall below the 200-day moving average. USD/JPY falls through 150 Read More »

Reforms afoot at the Reserve Bank of Australia could complicate rate cut outlook

The news hit yesterday that the controversial reforms to the RBA would be going ahead: Australia’s government has secured support from Greens party to pass RBA reform law For a rundown on what the reforms are, check this out: Reminder of what this is all about Reuters have a piece up saying: Australian central bank

Reforms afoot at the Reserve Bank of Australia could complicate rate cut outlook Read More »

Canadian dollar slumps after GDP report underscores a slowing economy

The Canadian economy grew at a 1.0% annualized rate in Q1, which was in-line with forecasts but a further drilling down in the data highlights a troubling trend. GDP was flat in August, then grew just 0.1% in Sepemteber and the advance estimate for October was +0.1%. The slowly pace of growth is further compounded

Canadian dollar slumps after GDP report underscores a slowing economy Read More »

ForexLive Asia-Pacific FX news wrap: Tokyo inflation rose, JPY surged

Deutsche Bank flags rising risks to December Fed rate cut, signals extended policy pauseECB vice president Luis de Guindos is speaking on FridayChina official PMI data due this weekend – manufacturing and services expansion expectedTokyo inflation acceleration – recapping the yen supportive data published earlierThe potential for a December Federal Reserve rate cut cited for

ForexLive Asia-Pacific FX news wrap: Tokyo inflation rose, JPY surged Read More »

The potential for a December Federal Reserve rate cut cited for gold price bounce

ANZ on gold, a note highlighting: gold prices higher on the prospect of a December Fed rate cut after the US personal consumption expenditure data earlier in the week came in line with expectations pricing up around a 70% chance for a 25bps rate cut in December, from just over 50% a week agogeopolitical tensions

The potential for a December Federal Reserve rate cut cited for gold price bounce Read More »

Gold Technical Analysis – The path of least resistance remains to the upside

Fundamental Overview Gold continues to find support around some key technical levels as in the bigger picture it remains in a bullish trend amid the Fed’s easing cycle. The corrections will likely be triggered by the repricing in rate cuts expectations. The next big event for Gold will be the US CPI report due in

Gold Technical Analysis – The path of least resistance remains to the upside Read More »

Q1 2025 outlook: inflation pressures will rise, Fed likely to stop cutting rates earlier

The S&P Global Ratings outlook for the first quarter of 2025 is titled “Buckle Up”. Key points made in the report: Even before taking office, a second Trump administration is already moving the macro-financial needle and raising downside risks for the global economy. The degree of ultimate policy implementation is a key unknown.Our preliminary policy

Q1 2025 outlook: inflation pressures will rise, Fed likely to stop cutting rates earlier Read More »

UK October mortgage approvals 68.30k vs 64.50k expected

Prior 65.65k; revised to 66.12kNet consumer credit £1.1 billionPrior £1.2 billion Slight delay in the release by the source. That’s a notable jump in mortgage approvals, with the reading being the highest since August 2022. It reaffirms the strong sentiment surrounding the UK property market, with prospects likely to improve further as the BOE is

UK October mortgage approvals 68.30k vs 64.50k expected Read More »

Tokyo inflation acceleration – recapping the yen supportive data published earlier

The Tokyo inflation data is here: Tokyo area November inflation data, a big jump higher: Headline 2.6% y/y (prior 1.8%) And concerns about a leak were aired here: USD/JPY towards 151.10 – the drop began before the CPI data officially published The Wall Street Journal have a recap of the data. The Journal is gated

Tokyo inflation acceleration – recapping the yen supportive data published earlier Read More »

More on this revised RBNZ forecast from ANZ now expect the RBNZ to cut by 50bp in February

The news on this is here: ANZ now expect the RBNZ to cut by 50bp in February (revised from 25pb cut) Adding in a few more comments from ANZ: As expected, the RBNZ delivered another 50bp cut in the OCR to 4.25% at its November Monetary Policy Statement – a Statement that had something for

More on this revised RBNZ forecast from ANZ now expect the RBNZ to cut by 50bp in February Read More »

PBOC sets USD/ CNY reference rate for today at 7.1877 (vs. estimate at 7.2244)

The People’s Bank of China set the onshore yuan (CNY) reference rate for the trading session ahead. USD/CNY is the onshore yuan. Its permitted to trade plus or minus 2% from this daily reference rate.CNH is the offshore yuan. USD /CNH has no restrictions on its trading range.A significantly stronger or weaker rate than expected

PBOC sets USD/ CNY reference rate for today at 7.1877 (vs. estimate at 7.2244) Read More »

Switzerland November KOF leading indicator index 101.8 vs 100.0 expected

Prior 99.5; revised to 99.7 It’s an improvement to the month before but the recent trend points to more sideways momentum in the Swiss economy. And that suggests flagging economic conditions with a more challenging outlook surrounding Europe in general going into next year. This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

Switzerland November KOF leading indicator index 101.8 vs 100.0 expected Read More »

ECB consumer expectations survey shows inflation edging up slightly in the year ahead

Inflation expectations for the next 12 months is seen at 2.5% and that is up from the 2.4% reading in September. That said, it is still keeping well lower than the readings in July and August of 2.8% and 2.7% respectively. Meanwhile, inflation expectations for three years ahead is seen at 2.1% – unchanged from

ECB consumer expectations survey shows inflation edging up slightly in the year ahead Read More »

BOE governor Bailey: We are very supportive of growth

There is no trade off between financial stability and growthStress testing will help with competitiveness of financial sectorNot seeing signs of higher corporate distress in relation to the budgetHave to watch for how the effects of the budget will pass throughBOE has sought to deliver financial stability while also supporting the economy (Breeden)We do not

BOE governor Bailey: We are very supportive of growth Read More »

EURUSD Technical Analysis – A look at the chart ahead of the Eurozone CPI

Fundamental Overview We continue to see a pullback in the US Dollar as the market kind of reached the peak in the repricing of interest rates expectations and it will need stronger reasons to price out the remaining rate cuts for 2025. This was signalled by the lack of US Dollar strength after lots of

EURUSD Technical Analysis – A look at the chart ahead of the Eurozone CPI Read More »

Germany November unemployment change 7k vs 20k expected

Prior 27kUnemployment rate 6.1% vs 6.1% expectedPrior 6.1% German unemployment rose by less than expected on the month, with the jobless rate keeping steadier. The latter has been trending upwards over the past year or so, reaffirming softer labour market conditions with the manufacturing sector in recession. So, that will continue to be a spot

Germany November unemployment change 7k vs 20k expected Read More »

Russell 2000 Technical Analysis – New all-time highs incoming?

Fundamental Overview The Russell 2000 has been outperforming the other major indices recently as there’s much more value compared to the S&P 500 or the Nasdaq. The market is now looking forward to the next year with Trump’s policies being a positive driver for growth. The only bearish reason we had for the stock market

Russell 2000 Technical Analysis – New all-time highs incoming? Read More »

Deutsche Bank flags rising risks to December Fed rate cut, signals extended policy pause

Deutsche Bank analysts have raised concerns that the Federal Reserve may skip a widely anticipated rate cut in December, citing stronger-than-expected economic resilience, a stabilizing labor market, and inflation persisting above 2.5%. While they still hold to their December rate cut forecast, the risks of a delay are “heightened,” according to the bank’s latest note.

Deutsche Bank flags rising risks to December Fed rate cut, signals extended policy pause Read More »

ANZ now expect the RBNZ to cut by 50bp in February (revised from 25pb cut)

Comments from ANZ: After cutting 50bp this week RBNZ comms made it clear that a follow-up 50bp cut in Feb is their baseline, so we’ve tweaked our own OCR forecast accordingly. more to come *** Reserve Bank of New Zealand next meet on February 19, 2025 This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

ANZ now expect the RBNZ to cut by 50bp in February (revised from 25pb cut) Read More »

Japan October Industrial Output +3.0% m/m (exp +3.9%) Retail sales +1.6% y/y (exp +2.2%)

Both of these miss. On output, the outlooks: Manufacturers expect November output to be -2.2% m/mexpect December output to be -0.5% m/m Earlier from Japan today: Tokyo area November inflation data, a big jump higher: Headline 2.6% y/y (prior 1.8%)USD/JPY towards 151.10 – the drop began before the CPI data officially published This article was

Japan October Industrial Output +3.0% m/m (exp +3.9%) Retail sales +1.6% y/y (exp +2.2%) Read More »

China official PMI data due this weekend – manufacturing and services expansion expected

PMIs from China’s National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) are due on Saturday, November 30, 2024 at 0130 GMT (which is 2030 GMT on Friday, November 29, 2024) In October 2024, these indicators showed signs of stabilization, with both manufacturing and non-manufacturing sectors returning to expansion territory. Key highlights include: Manufacturing Sector: Manufacturing PMI: The Purchasing

China official PMI data due this weekend – manufacturing and services expansion expected Read More »

PBOC is expected to set the USD/CNY reference rate at 7.2244 – Reuters estimate

People’s Bank of China USD/CNY reference rate is due around 0115 GMT. The People’s Bank of China (PBOC), China’s central bank, is responsible for setting the daily midpoint of the yuan (also known as renminbi or RMB). The PBOC follows a managed floating exchange rate system that allows the value of the yuan to fluctuate

PBOC is expected to set the USD/CNY reference rate at 7.2244 – Reuters estimate Read More »

Plan to overhaul the RBA including splitting the board in two could be back on the agenda

Plan to overhaul the RBA could be back on the agenda. Australia’s government Labor Party and left-wing Greens Party held last-minute talks to revive the stalled legislation Bloomberg had the report (Bloomberg is gated). *** Reminder of what this is all about. In 2023, the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) underwent a comprehensive review, leading

Plan to overhaul the RBA including splitting the board in two could be back on the agenda Read More »

Eurozone November final consumer confidence -13.7 vs -13.7 prelim

Prior -12.5Economic confidence 95.8 vs 95.1 expectedPrior 95.6; revised to 95.7Industrial confidence -11.1 vs -13.2 expectedPrior -13.0; revised to -12.6Services confidence 5.3 vs 6.2 expectedPrior 7.1; revised to 6.8 Slight delay in the release by the source. Economic sentiment in the euro area actually improved on the month but the devil is in the details.

Eurozone November final consumer confidence -13.7 vs -13.7 prelim Read More »

European equity close: Germany leads a bounce after three days of declines

Closing changes in Europe: Stoxx 600 +0.5%German DAX +0.8%France CAC +0.5%UK FTSE 100 +0.1%Spain IBEX +0.4%Italy’s FTSE MIB +0.6% Here is how Deutsche Bank tees up the recent declines in France. The biggest story yesterday came from France, where there remain serious concerns about the budget situation and a potential government collapse. That led to

European equity close: Germany leads a bounce after three days of declines Read More »

RBA governor Bullock: If inflation falls more quickly than forecast, we can respond

We are aiming for inflation at 2.5%As long as inflation continues on its gradual slowing path, we will be in position to consider cutting rates at some pointWe don’t need inflation to be at target to cut ratesBut we need to be sure it is heading thereIf inflation picks up again, that would be a

RBA governor Bullock: If inflation falls more quickly than forecast, we can respond Read More »

Citi analysts warn Trump’s tariffs could impact S&P 500 earnings

ICYMI, in a note Citi analysts cautioned that Trump’s proposed tariffs could lead to a decline in S&P 500 earnings by a few percentage points. They noted that the market has not yet fully accounted for this risk, particularly with the new tariffs targeting China, Canada, and Mexico. Industries with substantial trade exposure, such as

Citi analysts warn Trump’s tariffs could impact S&P 500 earnings Read More »

Australian data: Q3 Capex headline rose 1.1% vs. +0.9% expected & -2.2% prior

A small beat for the headline. Total new capital expenditure rose by 1.1%Buildings and structures rose by 1.1%Equipment, plant and machinery rose by 1.1%Estimate 4 for 2024-25 is $178.2b. This is 5.1% higher than Estimate 3 for 2024-25 *** Background to this. The Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) publishes data on private new capital expenditure

Australian data: Q3 Capex headline rose 1.1% vs. +0.9% expected & -2.2% prior Read More »

RBA’s Bullock: Underlying inflation is still too high to consider a near-term rate cut

Policy will need to remain restrictive until there is more confidence on inflationThere is still some way to go in returning inflation sustainably to target bandOur forecasts suggest a sustainable return to target will occur in 2026The board will reconsider policy approach as more data comes to hand Nothing new there from Bullock as she

RBA’s Bullock: Underlying inflation is still too high to consider a near-term rate cut Read More »

ECB’s Villeroy: Victory against inflation is in sight

Victory against inflation is in sight.The inflation target may be reached in early 2025.Our interest rates should clearly go to the neutral rate.We still have significant room to remove the restrictive stance of our monetary policy.I wouldn’t exclude going below the neutral rate in the future. This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at www.forexlive.com.

ECB’s Villeroy: Victory against inflation is in sight Read More »

RBA governor Bullock: Hard to tell what lies ahead when it comes to Trump administration

It is hard to tell what Trump administration will do, as opposed to what they say they will doUS tariffs could potentially lead to a rise in US inflationBut it is not going to impact Australia inflation in the next six monthsWe have to set policy based on what we know rather than what’s in

RBA governor Bullock: Hard to tell what lies ahead when it comes to Trump administration Read More »

New Zealand data – ANZ November Business Confidence 64.9 (prior 65.7)

New Zealand November 2024 Business Survey Business confidence 64.9% prior 65.7 Activity outlook 48.0% prior 45.9 ANZ comments: Business confidence eased 1 point to +65 in November, but expected own activity rose 2 points to +48. Experienced own activity rose a point to -10, while past employment lifted from -15 to -12. Pricing intentions fell

New Zealand data – ANZ November Business Confidence 64.9 (prior 65.7) Read More »

ForexLive European FX news wrap: Dollar steadies with Thanksgiving holiday in focus

Headlines: Weekly update on interest rate expectationsRBA’s Bullock: Underlying inflation is still too high to consider a near-term rate cutRBA governor Bullock: If inflation falls more quickly than forecast, we can respondRBA governor Bullock: Hard to tell what lies ahead when it comes to Trump administrationECB’s Lagarde: Tariffs will be negative for global growth in

ForexLive European FX news wrap: Dollar steadies with Thanksgiving holiday in focus Read More »

RBNZ’s Silk: A decision on 25 bps or 50 bps rate cut is on the table for February

Everything was on the table this weekBut a consensus was reached for a 50 bps rate cut very quicklyDid not feel the need to do more than 50 bps because there is still work to do on inflationHave to make sure core inflation is sustainably at target mid-point Her remarks are consistent with what Orr

RBNZ’s Silk: A decision on 25 bps or 50 bps rate cut is on the table for February Read More »

Germany November preliminary CPI +2.2% vs +2.3% y/y expected

Prior +2.0%HICP +2.4% vs +2.6% y/y expectedPrior +2.4% Slight delay in the release by the source. Headline annual inflation crept a little higher but less than estimated, as per the state readings earlier. That owes more to base effects, with monthly inflation seen down 0.2%. The EU-harmonised reading was the same as October though for

Germany November preliminary CPI +2.2% vs +2.3% y/y expected Read More »

Japan’s manufacturing industry labour union set to demand highest ever wage hike – Nikkei

This is with regards to the Japanese Association of Metal, Machinery, and Manufacturing Workers (JAM) trade union, which mainly comprises of small and medium-sized manufacturing firms across Japan. It is being reported that they will be demanding a base salary hike of ¥15,000 or more in the upcoming spring wage negotiations. For some context, that

Japan’s manufacturing industry labour union set to demand highest ever wage hike – Nikkei Read More »

ForexLive Asia-Pacific FX news wrap: USD/JPY rose to circa 151.75

Japan extraordinary parliamentary session to discuss plans for an extra budget (and more)JP Morgan says Bank of Japan will hike to 1.5% (but not soon)South Korea will extend its fuel tax cuts by another 2 monthsBank of Korea cut benchmark interest rates for a second straight meeting – a surprise moveThe US has reduced its

ForexLive Asia-Pacific FX news wrap: USD/JPY rose to circa 151.75 Read More »

ECB’s Lagarde: Tariffs will be negative for global growth in the long-term

Trump has indicated a range of tariffs around 10-20% for the rest of the worldThe fact that you put out a range means that you are open to discussionEurope is erring towards a “cheque book strategy”We could offer to buy certain things from the US and signal that we are prepared to discuss to see

ECB’s Lagarde: Tariffs will be negative for global growth in the long-term Read More »

A down day for the major indices ahead of the Thanksgiving day holiday

The major indices move lower on the day ahead of the Thanksgiving day holiday tomorrow. The markets will reopen on Friday. The mega caps and technology stocks moved lower with Dell leading the way after disappointing guidance for the Q4: A snapshot of the closing levels shows: Dow industrial average -138.25 points or -0.31% and

A down day for the major indices ahead of the Thanksgiving day holiday Read More »

Mexico has agreed to stop migration into the US (closes southern border)

Trump says he spoke with Mexico’s Sheinbaum: agreed to stop migration through Mexico into the USeffectively closing the US southern border If so this will mean Turmp’s threats if big tariffs on Mexico won’t go ahead. *** Claudia Sheinbaum Pardo is president of Mexico *** The threat of tariffs on Mexico, Canada and China sent

Mexico has agreed to stop migration into the US (closes southern border) Read More »

Japan extraordinary parliamentary session to discuss plans for an extra budget (and more)

An extraordinary parliamentary session will begin in Japan today, November 28. Will run to December 21. The special Diet session is to allow for deliberation on a supplementary budget needed to fund new inflation-relief measures proposed by the government of Japanese Prime Mister Shigeru Ishiba. Government plans include: to provide cash handouts — likely 30,000

Japan extraordinary parliamentary session to discuss plans for an extra budget (and more) Read More »

PBOC sets USD/ CNY mid-point today at 7.1894 (vs. estimate at 7.2227)

The People’s Bank of China set the onshore yuan (CNY) reference rate for the trading session ahead. USD/CNY is the onshore yuan. Its permitted to trade plus or minus 2% from this daily reference rate.CNH is the offshore yuan. USD /CNH has no restrictions on its trading range.A significantly stronger or weaker rate than expected

PBOC sets USD/ CNY mid-point today at 7.1894 (vs. estimate at 7.2227) Read More »

Economic calendar in Asia Thursday, November 28 – RBA Governor Bullock speaks late

From New Zealand are business confidence and activity indicators, from the ANZ Business Outlook Survey. This is a monthly assessment conducted by ANZ Bank New Zealand. It gauges the sentiments and expectations of businesses across various sectors in New Zealand. It serves as a leading economic indicator, offering insights into business confidence, anticipated activity levels,

Economic calendar in Asia Thursday, November 28 – RBA Governor Bullock speaks late Read More »

The US has reduced its travel advisory level for China from 3 down to 2

US advice to travelers to mainland China changed from Level 3, “reconsider travel”, to Level 2, “exercise increased caution”. The the advisory still warned that US citizens in China “may be subjected to interrogations and detention without fair and transparent treatment under the law”. The trimming of the warning level comes as: China has released

The US has reduced its travel advisory level for China from 3 down to 2 Read More »

Data from New Zealand today confirms signs of still-rising unemployment

Stats NZ released its monthly ‘Employment Indicators’ data, for October 2024: there are over 35,500 fewer jobs now in NZ than there were a year agoover 30,000 jobs gone in the 15-29 age bracketnumber of filled jobs for October 2024 fell by over 2,000 (0.1%) to 2.36 millionSeptember was revised down to a 0.1% fallin

Data from New Zealand today confirms signs of still-rising unemployment Read More »

Bank of Korea cut benchmark interest rates for a second straight meeting – a surprise move

Bank of Korea cut benchmark interest rates for a second straight meeting in a surprise move: Bank of Korea unexpectedly cuts its base rate by 25bpfirst time since 2009 the central bank cut interest rates for two consecutive meetingsBoK also lowered its forecasts for economic growth and inflation South Korean won, bond yields weakened. KOSPI

Bank of Korea cut benchmark interest rates for a second straight meeting – a surprise move Read More »

PBOC is expected to set the USD/CNY reference rate at 7.2227 – Reuters estimate

People’s Bank of China USD/CNY reference rate is due around 0115 GMT. The People’s Bank of China (PBOC), China’s central bank, is responsible for setting the daily midpoint of the yuan (also known as renminbi or RMB). The PBOC follows a managed floating exchange rate system that allows the value of the yuan to fluctuate

PBOC is expected to set the USD/CNY reference rate at 7.2227 – Reuters estimate Read More »

Atlanta Fed GDPNow growth estimate for Q4 rises to 2.7% from 2.6% on November 19

The Atlanta Fed GDPNow growth estimate for Q4 rose to 2.7%. In their own words: The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the fourth quarter of 2024 is 2.7 percent on November 27, up from 2.6 percent on November 19. After this morning’s personal income and outlays release from

Atlanta Fed GDPNow growth estimate for Q4 rises to 2.7% from 2.6% on November 19 Read More »

Australia’s government has secured support from Greens party to pass RBA reform law

I posted on the machinations earlier: Plan to overhaul the RBA including splitting the board in two could be back on the agenda The Australian Labor party government has secured the support of minority party Greens to help pass the legislation. The Treasury Laws Amendment (Reserve Bank Reforms) Bill 2023 was one of around 30

Australia’s government has secured support from Greens party to pass RBA reform law Read More »

US expected to announce further AI chip sanctions against China on Monday

The US is expected to announce another set of measures on Monday designed to further restrain China’s ability to develop advanced artificial intelligence The reports cite “people familiar with the matter”could include sanctioning dozens of Chinese companies that produce equipment for making semiconductorsalso placing restrictions on a handful of chip manufacturing plants, some of which

US expected to announce further AI chip sanctions against China on Monday Read More »

CME adjusted trading hours for various products during Thanksgiving holiday 2024

Post for the futures traders out there! The CME Group has adjusted trading hours for various products during the Thanksgiving holiday period in 2024. Below is a summary of the schedule for Equity Products, Cryptocurrency, Interest Rate Products, and NYMEX & COMEX Products: Equity Products: Wednesday, November 27, 2024: Regular trading hours. Thursday, November 28,

CME adjusted trading hours for various products during Thanksgiving holiday 2024 Read More »

Business sentiment in UK services sector is falling at the fastest rate in two years

The CBI survey shows UK services sector sentiment falling at its fastest pace in two years, driven partly by tax increases in Finance Minister Rachel Reeves’ October 30 budget, according to the Confederation of British Industry (CBI). The decline is most severe in consumer services, where a £25 billion payroll tax hike heavily impacts large

Business sentiment in UK services sector is falling at the fastest rate in two years Read More »

Assuming Trump actually puts the tariffs on Canada and Mexico

Few people think Trump will actually follow through with 25% across-the-board tariffs on Canada and Mexico, at least not for any length of time. But with Trump you need to prepare for anything and that’s what Deutsche Bank has done today with forecast scenarios that illustrate where US inflation will lad with tariffs. This chart

Assuming Trump actually puts the tariffs on Canada and Mexico Read More »

Forexlive Americas FX news wrap 27 Nov: Core PCE inflation remains sticky but as expected

A down day for the major indices ahead of the Thanksgiving day holidayRBNZ Asst Gov Silk: Manufacturing, retail, construction will start to see recovery in 2025Atlanta Fed GDPNow growth estimate for Q4 rises to 2.7% from 2.6% on November 19Crude oil futures settles at $68.72Assuming Trump actually puts the tariffs on Canada and MexicoBitcoin races

Forexlive Americas FX news wrap 27 Nov: Core PCE inflation remains sticky but as expected Read More »

RBNZ Asst Gov Silk: Manufacturing, retail, construction will start to see recovery in 2025

Comments from RBNZ Asst Governor Silk Residential investment, manufacturing, retail trade, construction in New Zealand will start to see more recovery in early 2025.Geopolitical risks pose uncertainty, can have an impact on inflation and growth.Restrictive policy giving confidence nondomestic inflation numbers allowing us to start to accelerate easing cycle Comments from RBNZ chief economist Conway:

RBNZ Asst Gov Silk: Manufacturing, retail, construction will start to see recovery in 2025 Read More »

Geopolitics: German foreign intelligence says Kremlin since Germany as an adversary

German foreign intelligence service says: Kremlin sees Germany as an adversarySays Germany is in direct confrontation with MoscowRussia has started to use “kinetic” measures against the West including acts of sabotage against infrastructureExpects further escalation of the situation Earlier today, it was reported that Trump would pick Keith Kellogg as the envoy to end the

Geopolitics: German foreign intelligence says Kremlin since Germany as an adversary Read More »

USDCAD falls to converged 100/200 hour MA. Key target suport.

The USD/CAD surged sharply higher on Tuesday following news of a proposed 25% tariff on all Canadian goods by former President Trump, contingent on the continued “stream of illegal immigrants” at the border. Adam addressed the issue here: “Tariff man loses his fastball“. The spike higher propelled the pair to its highest level since April

USDCAD falls to converged 100/200 hour MA. Key target suport. Read More »

Kickstart your trading day with a technical look at the EURUSD, USDJPY, GBPUSD and USDCHF

Dollar selling is the theme in the FX market today, and with that, the major currency pairs versus the US dollar are breaking through some technical levels and targeting others. EURUSD: The EURUSD is looking toward the 38.2% retracement at 1.05628. Get above that and it opens the door for further upside momentum. USDJPY: The

Kickstart your trading day with a technical look at the EURUSD, USDJPY, GBPUSD and USDCHF Read More »

When the bond market turns, USD/JPY gets crushed. 5 reasons behind the drop

USD/JPY is down a whopping 260 pips today following a 140-pip decline yesterday. The pair is trading at 150.46 fr om a high of 156.76 mid-month. That’s a real turn and it’s particularly dramatic today as the US dollar is dogged by month-end flows. It’s a case of “up the escalator, down the elevator” that’s

When the bond market turns, USD/JPY gets crushed. 5 reasons behind the drop Read More »

ForexLive Asia-Pacific FX news wrap: RBNZ 50bp rate cut as expected, NZD jumped anyway

Goldman Sachs estimates China’s 2024 LNG imports to revert back to previous record highChief Economist & European Central Bank Executive Board member Lane speaking WednesdayANZ forecast 25bp RBNZ rate cuts in February, April, and May 2025Goldman Sachs analyst says Asia LNG prices could jump to above $20/mmbtuRBNZ Gov Orr says tariffs would put up pressure

ForexLive Asia-Pacific FX news wrap: RBNZ 50bp rate cut as expected, NZD jumped anyway Read More »

Trust Wallet Introduces World of Dypians (WOD) on Trust Wallet Launchpool

Trust Wallet, a leading self-custody Web3 wallet trusted by over 140 million users, has announced the third project under Trust Wallet Launchpool, featuring the reward token $WOD. $WOD is the native token of World of Dypians, a MMORPG available on Epic Games, set in a connected virtual world, featuring advanced AI, stunning graphics, and immersive

Trust Wallet Introduces World of Dypians (WOD) on Trust Wallet Launchpool Read More »

Forexlive Americas FX news wrap 26 Nov. The USD moves marginally higher. Housing mixed.

US equity close: Big bids arrive late With all the focus on Bessent, are we underestimating Kevin Warsh?Biden touts Israel-Lebanon ceasefireCould Trump lean on a weaker dollar as is main policy lever?Are we in a bubble? Where 5 measures of market sentiment standA look at the Fed minutes by separating references to groups of “participants”.FOMC

Forexlive Americas FX news wrap 26 Nov. The USD moves marginally higher. Housing mixed. Read More »

US MBA mortgage applications w.e. 22 November +6.3% vs +1.7% prior

Prior +1.7%Market index 208.0 vs 195.6 priorPurchase index 152.9 vs 136.0 priorRefinance index 501.7 vs 514.9 prior30-year mortgage rate 6.86% vs 6.90% prior Mortgage applications jumped in the past week, owing to a surge in purchase activity. That more than offset a decline in refinancing activity, with the average rate continuing to hold higher still.

US MBA mortgage applications w.e. 22 November +6.3% vs +1.7% prior Read More »

US October advance wholesale inventories +0.2% vs -0.2% prior

Prior -0.2%Advance retail inventories +0.1%Prior +0.8%; revised to +0.6%Retail inventories ex-autos +0.1%Prior +0.2%; revised to +0.1% Wholesale inventories are estimated to be higher in October, up slightly to $905.1 billion, while retail inventories are also seen marginally higher on the month up to $824.7 billion. Here is the breakdown by the month: This article was

US October advance wholesale inventories +0.2% vs -0.2% prior Read More »

ForexLive European FX news wrap: Dollar eases lower ahead of US data flurry

Headlines: USD/JPY falls to three-week lows as dollar slips to start the sessionEURUSD Technical Analysis – The pair looks to be bottoming outPotential for dollar selling this month end – DeutscheGold bounce today keeps buyers interested going into month-endWhat is the distribution of forecasts for the US PCE?ECB’s Schnabel: Easing too much would use up

ForexLive European FX news wrap: Dollar eases lower ahead of US data flurry Read More »

Tech sector struggles: Nvidia plunges while utilities gain traction

Sector Overview Today’s stock market heatmap reveals a turbulent day for the tech sector, particularly within semiconductors. Nvidia (NVDA) has taken a significant hit, dropping 2.07%, marking a stark contrast to the generally resilient performance elsewhere. Meanwhile, the utilities and consumer defensive sectors are showing relative strength, offering a safe haven for cautious investors. 📉

Tech sector struggles: Nvidia plunges while utilities gain traction Read More »

What is the Reserve Bank of New Zealand even doing? This is a horror ‘typo’/link

This is weird. I posted the RBNZ rate cut decision, it was published on time and kudos to all involved. I then tried to access the statement and meeting record on the Bank’s website and, well, that wasn’t smooth at all. I could access the site but the statement and minutes were there from the

What is the Reserve Bank of New Zealand even doing? This is a horror ‘typo’/link Read More »

Intervention effort – South Korea pension fund selling dollars, buying won in recent weeks

South Korea’s National Pension Service (NPS) has been selling dollars in the onshore foreign exchange market in recent weeks, helping limit losses in the won as the dollar strengthens. Reuters citing according to two sources familiar with the matter. As the world’s third-largest public pension fund, with assets exceeding $810 billion, the NPS has significant

Intervention effort – South Korea pension fund selling dollars, buying won in recent weeks Read More »

Westpac expect another Reserve Bank of New Zealand 50bp interest rate cut in February

The RBNZ cut the OCR by 50bps to 4.25% today: RBNZ Gov Orr says tariffs would put up pressure on price levels globallyRBNZ Gov says it’s a misunderstanding that RBNZ projections show slower pace of rate cutsRBNZ Monetary Policy Statement Media Conference – live linkWhat is the Reserve Bank of New Zealand even doing? This

Westpac expect another Reserve Bank of New Zealand 50bp interest rate cut in February Read More »

Aventus Introduces Blockchain Factory for Effortless Enterprise Blockchain Adoption

Aventus, a leader in enterprise blockchain technology and parachain on Polkadot, today announces the launch of its Blockchain Factory: a platform designed to help businesses deploy bespoke blockchain networks with advanced features and seamless integration into existing systems. The Blockchain Factory aims to make blockchain adoption more accessible, offering a streamlined, flexible solution for organisations

Aventus Introduces Blockchain Factory for Effortless Enterprise Blockchain Adoption Read More »

US initial jobless claims 213K vs 216K estimate

Priorr Week initial jobless claims 213K revised to 215KInitial jobless claims 213K vs 216K estimate 4-week MA 217K vs 218.25K last week Continuing Claims 1.907M vs 1.908M estimate. This is the highest level for insured unemployment since November 13, 2021 when it was 1,974,000Prior Continuing Claims 1.898M vs 1.908M previously reported4-week MA of continuing claims

US initial jobless claims 213K vs 216K estimate Read More »

AUDUSD stalls the rally near the 100 hour MA. Can the buyers push through?

The AUD/USD moved higher in response to a weaker USD, but sellers stepped in near the falling 100-hour moving average, pushing the price back down. The decline found support at the high of a key swing area, where buyers leaned in and drove the pair back toward the now-converged 100-hour and 200-hour moving averages, both

AUDUSD stalls the rally near the 100 hour MA. Can the buyers push through? Read More »

Stock Splits: Boosting Investor Participation in the Market

A stock split is a corporate action where a company issues additional shares to shareholders, increasing the total number of shares while reducing the share price proportionally. This process does not alter the company’s market capitalization but can affect investor perception and participation. Hearing Stock Splits for the first time? Choose investment education to learn

Stock Splits: Boosting Investor Participation in the Market Read More »

Chinese defence minister placed under investigation for corruption.

Xi has been purging various institutions, the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) is not immune. I saw this earlier: Liu Liange, former Party chief and chairman of Bank of China, was sentenced to death with a two-year reprieve in a first-instance trial on Tuesday for accepting large sums in bribes. (Global Times) This article was written

Chinese defence minister placed under investigation for corruption. Read More »

China January- October industrial profits -4.3% y/y

China January- October industrial profits -4.3% y/y the January – September result was -3.5% October month industrial profits -10% y/y Data comes from China’s National Bureau of Statistics (NBS). *** Industrial profit numbers cover firms with annual revenues of at least 20 million yuan ($2.76 million) from their main operations This article was written by

China January- October industrial profits -4.3% y/y Read More »

US October core PCE +2.8% y/y vs +2.8% expected

Prior was +2.7%Core m/m +0.3% vs +0.3% expUnrounded core PCE was +0.274% m/mCore PCE +2.8% y/y vs +2.8% expectedHeadline inflation PCE +2.3% y/y vs +2.3% expected (Prior +2.1%)Deflator +0.2% m/m vs +0.2% expected Unrounded +0.238% m/m Consumer spending and income for October: Personal income +0.6% vs +0.4% expected. Prior month +0.2%Personal spending +0.4% vs +0.3%

US October core PCE +2.8% y/y vs +2.8% expected Read More »

Pepeto Unveils Innovations in the Memecoin Space Ahead of 2025

As Bitcoin flirts with the $100K milestone, the crypto market is gearing up for the next cycle. Historically, this surge in BTC’s value leads to altcoins pumping, followed by liquidity flowing into the memecoin sector. With this momentum, memecoins offering compelling narratives and valuable utilities become the focal point for investors. Pepeto, the God of

Pepeto Unveils Innovations in the Memecoin Space Ahead of 2025 Read More »

US Q3 GDP (second estimate) +2.8 vs +2.8% expected

Advance Q3 reading was +2.8% annualizedFinal Q2 reading was +3.0% annualized Details: Consumer spending +3.5% vs +3.7% advance Consumer spending on durables +8.1%GDP final sales +3.0% vs +3.0% advanceGDP deflator +1.9% vs +1.8% advanceCore PCE +2.1% vs +2.2% advance Business investment (nonresidential fixed investment) +% vs +3.3% advancePCE services inflation excluding energy and housing +2.6%

US Q3 GDP (second estimate) +2.8 vs +2.8% expected Read More »

US stocks are mixed w/the NASDAQ and S&P are lower. Russell 2000 and Dow are higher

The major stock indices are mixed with the NASDAQ and S&P lower. The small-cap Russell 2000 and Dow industrial average are trading higher. A snapshot of the market currently shows: Dow industrial average was 40.07 points or 0.09%. S&P index -22.79 points or -0.38%NASDAQ index -172 points or -0.90%Russell 2000+ 4.47 points or +0.18% the

US stocks are mixed w/the NASDAQ and S&P are lower. Russell 2000 and Dow are higher Read More »

ECB’s Schnabel: Easing too much would use up valuable policy space

We can gradually move toward neutral if incoming data continues to confirm our baselineWe may not be so far from the neutral rateMarkets seem to assume that we will need to move into accommodative territoryBut I don’t think such a step would be appropriate based on current conditionsHas a strong preference for a gradual approachThe

ECB’s Schnabel: Easing too much would use up valuable policy space Read More »

Trump to pick Keith Kellogg as special envoy to end Ukraine war – report

There are some major geopolitical considerations around how the war in Ukraine ends. Trump will reportedly pick Keith Kellogg as envoy to end the war, according to a Reuters report. Here’s a recent article where he lays out how he would end it. Continue arming Ukraine while pursuing formal ceasefire negotiations, with aid conditional on

Trump to pick Keith Kellogg as special envoy to end Ukraine war – report Read More »

EIA weekly US oil inventories -1844K vs -605K expected

Crude oil inventories -1844 K vs -605K expGasoline inventories +3314K vs -46K expDistillates inventories +416K vs -103K expRefinery utilization +0.3% versus expectations of +0.4% expProduction 13.49mbpd from 13.2mbpd Private oil inventory data from late yesterday: Crude -5939KGasoline +1814KDistillates +2543K WTI crude oil was trading 10-cents higher to $68.87 before the data. Note that the OPEC

EIA weekly US oil inventories -1844K vs -605K expected Read More »

What is driving the FX markets technically. A look at the major currency pairs today

As the North America session begins the USD is lower, US yields are lower and the broader indices are lower (although the Dow is trading above and below unchanged). Crude oil is marginally higher after an up and down day on Tuesday. Gold is higher after rebounding by 0.31% yesterday a day after plunging 3.35%

What is driving the FX markets technically. A look at the major currency pairs today Read More »

New Zealand dollar has surged higher after the Reserve Bank of New Zealand 50bp rate cut

Decision and summary of statement and minutes is here: Reserve Bank of New Zealand cuts cash rate by 50bp, as expected NZD/USD has jumped: That’s a big surge for the kiwi$ on a decision that was widely expected. I don’t see the statement and minutes as hawkish but maybe some out there do. This article

New Zealand dollar has surged higher after the Reserve Bank of New Zealand 50bp rate cut Read More »

Goldman Sachs analyst says Asia LNG prices could jump to above $20/mmbtu

Goldman Sachs analyst says Asia LNG prices could jump to above $20 per million British thermal units (mmBtu) if European gas supply tightens this winter. Goldman Sachs analyst says: “That’s the near term dynamic, given this vulnerability of Europe, the lack of spare capacity, the loss of the residual Russian volumes currently going through Ukraine,

Goldman Sachs analyst says Asia LNG prices could jump to above $20/mmbtu Read More »

US October durable goods orders MoM 0.2% vs 0.5% expected

Prior month -0.7% (revised to -0.4%)Durable goods orders MoM 0.2% vs 0.5% expectedEx transportation MoM 0.1% vs 0.2% expectedPrior month ex transportation 0.5% (revised to 0.4%)Non-Defense cap ex air MoM -0.2% vs 0.1% expectedPrior month non-defence cap ex air 0.7% (revised to 0.3Durable goods ex defense MoM 0.4% vs -1.1% prior This isn’t a market

US October durable goods orders MoM 0.2% vs 0.5% expected Read More »

PBOC sets USD/ CNY mid-point today at 7.1982 (vs. estimate at 7.2535)

The People’s Bank of China set the onshore yuan (CNY) reference rate for the trading session ahead. USD/CNY is the onshore yuan. Its permitted to trade plus or minus 2% from this daily reference rate.CNH is the offshore yuan. USD /CNH has no restrictions on its trading range.A significantly stronger or weaker rate than expected

PBOC sets USD/ CNY mid-point today at 7.1982 (vs. estimate at 7.2535) Read More »

What is the distribution of forecasts for the US PCE?

Why it’s important? The ranges of estimates are important in terms of market reaction because when the actual data deviates from the expectations, it creates a surprise effect. Another important input in market’s reaction is the distribution of forecasts. In fact, although we can have a range of estimates, most forecasts might be clustered on

What is the distribution of forecasts for the US PCE? Read More »

Trump’s plan to impose 25% tariffs on Canadian and Mexican imports doesn’t exempt oil

Does anyone seriously think he’s going to put those tariffs on 6 million barrels per day of oil that enters the US? I take this more of a sign that this isn’t a real threat but the oil market has reversed some losses. This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

Trump’s plan to impose 25% tariffs on Canadian and Mexican imports doesn’t exempt oil Read More »

GBPUSD Technical Analysis – Key levels in focus for a potential pullback

Fundamental Overview The US Dollar remains the strongest currency but overall, we haven’t got much action in the past couple of weeks due to the lack of key catalysts and the market’s pricing remaining largely unchanged around roughly three rate cuts by the end of 2025 despite a series of strong US data. This might

GBPUSD Technical Analysis – Key levels in focus for a potential pullback Read More »

US treasury auctions off $70 billion of five year notes at a high yield of 4.197%

The US treasury auctioned off $70 billion of five year notes at a high yield of 4.197%. Details of the auction: High yield 4.197%Tail -0.2 basis points versus six-month average of 0.7 basis pointsBid to cover 2.43X vs six-month average of 2.37X Directs 24.58% versus six-month average of 16.0%Indirects 64.12% versus six-month average of 69.7%Dealers

US treasury auctions off $70 billion of five year notes at a high yield of 4.197% Read More »

Deutsche Bank highlights three risks to US equity market rally

Despite a strong performance this year, the stock market remains exposed to several potential challenges, Deutsche Bank noted in a report on Tuesday. While markets have experienced some volatility, they have rebounded quickly after the factors causing sell-offs eased. “This shows that any of these risks could trigger another downturn, especially if they persist or

Deutsche Bank highlights three risks to US equity market rally Read More »

Revision to New Zealand data will show growth hasn’t been as weak as previously estimated

Stats NZ have released a preview od GDP revisions to be published on December 19. Westpac summary: The key points are as follows (note that slight further revisions to the numbers below are possible before their formal release): • Real GDP growth (using the production-based measure) is likely to be revised up by 0.8ppts to

Revision to New Zealand data will show growth hasn’t been as weak as previously estimated Read More »

Goldman Sachs predicts nearly 1% inflation increase due to new Trump tariffs

The tariffs on imports from China, Canada, and Mexico announced by Trump on Monday could lead to a nearly 1% increase in the Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation measure, according to Goldman Sachs. Goldman’s chief economist, Jan Hatzius, in a note to clients: “Using our rule of thumb that every 1 [percentage point] increase in the

Goldman Sachs predicts nearly 1% inflation increase due to new Trump tariffs Read More »

Bank of England Lombardelli says too early to quantify effects of proposed tariffs

Bank of England Lombardellii says: US trade tariffs would pose risk to economic growthToo early to quantify effects of proposed tariffsWould discuss trade developments in upcoming meetings Comments reported in the Financial Times (gated) and conveyed via Reuters headlines. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

Bank of England Lombardelli says too early to quantify effects of proposed tariffs Read More »

Deutsche Bank base case is now for a higher Fed terminal rate than previously expected

Snippet from Deutsche Bank, in brief: base case for 2025 is stronger US growth and inflationhigher FOMC terminal rate than previously expectedopposite applies to Europe On the US DB: assumes modest US tax cutsstrong deregulation effortsmore supportive financial conditionsassume a 10% increase in the tariff rate on imports from China in H1 (ratcheting up a

Deutsche Bank base case is now for a higher Fed terminal rate than previously expected Read More »

RBNZ Gov Orr says tariffs would put up pressure on price levels globally

NZD/USD is giving back some of its earlier jump, its around 0.5852 now. From his circa 0.5880. RBNZ Governor Orr with more: Neutral rate is somewhere 2.5 to 3.5%expect to be around neutral by the end of 2025Confident domestic inflation pressures will continue to ease.Confident economic growth will pick up in 2025.Expect to be around

RBNZ Gov Orr says tariffs would put up pressure on price levels globally Read More »

Reserve Bank of New Zealand cuts cash rate by 50bp, as expected

Reserve Bank of New Zealand In summary from the statement: The Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) has reduced the Official Cash Rate (OCR) by 50 basis points to 4.25%. Inflation: Annual inflation has decreased and is near the 1–3% target midpoint. Inflation expectations and core inflation are also aligning with this midpoint. Further OCR reductions are

Reserve Bank of New Zealand cuts cash rate by 50bp, as expected Read More »

Private survey of oil inventories shows larger headline crude draw than was expected

Via Twitter: — Expectations I had seen centred on: Headline crude -0.6mn barrelsDistillates +0.1 mn bblsGasoline -0.05mn — This data point is from a privately-conducted survey by the American Petroleum Institute (API): It’s a survey of oil storage facilities and companies The official report is due Wednesday morning US time. The two reports are quite

Private survey of oil inventories shows larger headline crude draw than was expected Read More »

Goldman Sachs estimates China’s 2024 LNG imports to revert back to previous record high

Earlier from Goldman Sachs: Asia LNG prices could jump to above $20/MMBTU if European gas supply tightens this winter. More now: China’s 2024 LNG imports are estimated to revert back to the previous record high of just over 80 million tonnes per year.Russia to China gas pipeline is expected to be fully utilized next year,

Goldman Sachs estimates China’s 2024 LNG imports to revert back to previous record high Read More »

PBOC is expected to set the USD/CNY reference rate at 7.2535 – Reuters estimate

People’s Bank of China USD/CNY reference rate is due around 0115 GMT. The People’s Bank of China (PBOC), China’s central bank, is responsible for setting the daily midpoint of the yuan (also known as renminbi or RMB). The PBOC follows a managed floating exchange rate system that allows the value of the yuan to fluctuate

PBOC is expected to set the USD/CNY reference rate at 7.2535 – Reuters estimate Read More »

Economic calendar in Asia Wednesday, November 27, 2024 – Reserve Bank of New Zealand day!

Previews of the Reserve Bank of New Zealand are here: Reserve Bank of New Zealand meet Wednesday, November 27, 2024 – previewReserve Bank of New Zealand rate cut expected on Wednesday 27 November – previewReserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) Shadow Board recommend a 50bp cash rate cut this weekANZ forceast a 50bp interest cut

Economic calendar in Asia Wednesday, November 27, 2024 – Reserve Bank of New Zealand day! Read More »

ICYMI – Standard Chartered forecasts Bitcoin to US$200K

Standard Chartered on Bitcoin, forecasts: $125,000 by the end of this year$200,000 by end-2025 Expects a dip below $88,700 in the current retracement phase. says to buy between $85,000 and $88,700 Stan Chart cite: large increase in bitcoin buying from exchange-traded funds (ETFs) and Microstrategy since the US electionsays average of buys is $88,700 This

ICYMI – Standard Chartered forecasts Bitcoin to US$200K Read More »

Australian CPI due at the bottom of the hour – what to expect and why its not official

Snippet preview via Commonwealth Bank of Australia: We anticipate headline CPI inflation remained at 2.1%/yr in October. While a soft monthly outcome a year ago makes it hard for the annual rate to remain low, we expect a further fall in electricity prices to weigh on inflation. The Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) noted households

Australian CPI due at the bottom of the hour – what to expect and why its not official Read More »

Chief Economist & European Central Bank Executive Board member Lane speaking Wednesday

1800 GMT/1300 US Eastern time: Dinner introductory remarks by ECB board member Philip Lane at Conference on “Macroeconomic modelling frontiers for research and policy” organised by the ECB in Frankfurt *** Philip Lane is serving as the Chief Economist and a member of the Executive Board of the European Central Bank (ECB) since June 2019.

Chief Economist & European Central Bank Executive Board member Lane speaking Wednesday Read More »

Could Trump lean on a weaker dollar as is main policy lever?

Here is an interesting passage from a letter from Scott Bessent via his hedge fund in January of this year: Another differentiated view that we have is that Trump will pursue a weak dollar policy rather than implementing tariffs. Tariffs are inflationary and would strengthen the dollar–hardly a good starting point for a US industrial

Could Trump lean on a weaker dollar as is main policy lever? Read More »

Australian construction work data due at the bottom of the hour – what to expect

Most focus will be on the inflation number: Australian CPI due at the bottom of the hour – what to expect and why its not official But, construction data also due. Via Commonwealth Bank of Australia, analysts there expect +0.7% q/q: Construction work done includes building work (residential and non – residential) and engineering work.

Australian construction work data due at the bottom of the hour – what to expect Read More »

RBNZ Gov says it’s a misunderstanding that RBNZ projections show slower pace of rate cuts

Gov Orr: misunderstanding that RBNZ projections show slower pace of rate cutsprojections are consistent with 50bp cut in February depending on economyexpect more volatility in prices because of geopoliticsdid not discuss cutting by 75bp (amends that to say very little discussion of 75 or 25)policy committee can meet at any time if needed You can

RBNZ Gov says it’s a misunderstanding that RBNZ projections show slower pace of rate cuts Read More »

Reserve Bank of New Zealand meet Wednesday, November 27, 2024 – preview

BNZ preview the Reserve Bank of New Zealand meeting on November 27, saying that arguments for a 25, 50, or 75bp all have merits. Analysts at BNZ, though, say that a 50-point cut this meeting is their central view. Citing: economic spare capacity continues to grow and will do so for some time inflation will

Reserve Bank of New Zealand meet Wednesday, November 27, 2024 – preview Read More »

FOMC Minutes: Many said uncertainty over neutral rate made it appropriate to move slowly

Highlights from the Nov 6-7 FOMC decision: 🔹 ON FUTURE POLICY PATH: “Participants anticipated that if the data came in about as expected, with inflation continuing to move down sustainably to 2 percent and the economy remaining near maximum employment, it would likely be appropriate to move gradually toward a more neutral stance of policy

FOMC Minutes: Many said uncertainty over neutral rate made it appropriate to move slowly Read More »

BoE Lombardelli – need more evidence of cooling price pressures before another rate cut

Earlier on this is here: Bank of England Lombardelli says too early to quantify effects of proposed tariffs Speaking in an interview with the Financial Times. The FT is gated, but Bloomberg have a further rundown. In brief: Lombardelli said she needs to see more evidence of cooling price pressures before she backs another interest

BoE Lombardelli – need more evidence of cooling price pressures before another rate cut Read More »

A look at the Fed minutes by separating references to groups of “participants”.

Group: “Some” “Some participants remarked that although increases in housing services prices remained somewhat elevated, they continued to expect that these increases would slow.””Some participants observed that, with supply and demand in the labor market being roughly in balance and in light of recent productivity gains, wage increases were unlikely to be a source of

A look at the Fed minutes by separating references to groups of “participants”. Read More »

Richmond Fed composite index for November -14 versus -10 estimate

Prior month -14Composite index -14 versus -10 estimatexx. Services index 9 vs 3 last monthManufacturing shipments -12 vs -8 last month Other details: Employment -10 vs -17 last month. Better but still negative. Wages 17 vs 16 last month. Marginally higher. Prices paid 2.48 vs 2.70 last month. Lower.Prices received 2.07 vs 1.71 last month.

Richmond Fed composite index for November -14 versus -10 estimate Read More »

BofA: Gold faces near-term headwinds but potential for $3,000 in 2025

BofA highlights four key policy dimensions of the incoming US administration that could suppress gold demand in the near term by driving higher rates and a stronger USD. However, these bearish factors do not derail BofA’s longer-term bullish outlook for gold, with a price target of $3,000/oz by end of 2025. Key Points: Near-Term Bearish

BofA: Gold faces near-term headwinds but potential for $3,000 in 2025 Read More »

Japan PM Ishiba calls for cooperation from businesses on bigger wage hikes

Ishiba says that the government is requesting the cooperation from businesses to achieve a “large” wage growth in the spring wage negotiations. This is to follow up from last year’s success and to break the deflationary cycle/mindset in Japan. It will also help the BOJ out a little in trying to convince markets of further

Japan PM Ishiba calls for cooperation from businesses on bigger wage hikes Read More »

Kickstart the trading day with a technical look at the EURUSD, USDJPY, GBPUSD & USDCAD

The USD moved higher vs the EUR, JPY, GBP and the CAD after Pres. elect Trump said he would impose tariffs on 25% vs Canada and Mexico goods, and a 10% blanket tariff on all China goods. The dollars gains on the comments were short lived vs the EUR, GBP and JPY, but maintained (mostly)

Kickstart the trading day with a technical look at the EURUSD, USDJPY, GBPUSD & USDCAD Read More »

Financial Times: Russia poised for cyber war in response to UK missile attacks

The Financial Times is gated, but in brief the piece says that Russia will seek to weaken support for Ukraine in preparing to launch a series of cyber attacks on Britain and other Nato members. The BBC has a non gated report here if you are after more. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan

Financial Times: Russia poised for cyber war in response to UK missile attacks Read More »

Secretary of State Blinkin: Going into 2025 Ukraine has money, munitions & forces

More geopolitical: US is continuing to supply security assistance to bolster Ukraine defenses in the Eastthe involvement of North Korean troops in Ukraine conflict was a matter of grave concernUS is finalizing getting out the door the $50 billion that has been secured on the basis of frozen Russian sovereign assets.UKraine has money, munitions, and

Secretary of State Blinkin: Going into 2025 Ukraine has money, munitions & forces Read More »

BOC’s Mendes: We will incorporate political policies once we actually see the specifics

Mendes was no doubt asked about tariffs but this is a standard line from central bankers relating to any policies. Separately, the StatsCan wholesale sales flash estimate for October is out and it was up a decent 0.5%. This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

BOC’s Mendes: We will incorporate political policies once we actually see the specifics Read More »

G7 draft: Ministers concerned about China’s non-market policies and overcapacity

Concerned about China’s non-market policies and practices that are leading to harmful overcapacity and market distortionsCall on China to refrain from adopting export control measures, particularly on critical minerals that could lead to significant supply disruptions This is the usual chorus. This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

G7 draft: Ministers concerned about China’s non-market policies and overcapacity Read More »

RBNZ rate decision in the new day and the NZDUSD is breaking to a new low. What next?

The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) is set to announce its interest rate decision in the upcoming trading session, with expectations leaning toward a 50 basis point rate cut, lowering the benchmark rate from 4.75% to 4.25%. The NZD/USD pair has been in a steady downtrend since late September, driven by expectations of further

RBNZ rate decision in the new day and the NZDUSD is breaking to a new low. What next? Read More »

US November consumer confidence 111.7 vs 111.3 expected

Prior was 108.7 (revised to 109.6)Present Situation Index 140.9 vs. 138.0 priorExpectations Index 92.3 vs 89.1 prior12-month inflation expectations declined from 5.3% last month to 4.9% “Consumer confidence continued to improve in November and reached the top of the range that has prevailed over the past two years,” said Dana Peterson, Chief Economist at The

US November consumer confidence 111.7 vs 111.3 expected Read More »

ECB’s Rehn: Inflation expected to hit ECB’s target in 2025

Inflation expected to hit ECB’s target in 2025.Eurozone economy will grow slowly and recover gradually.Salary and services inflation remain persistent, maintain risk of inflation moderating more slowly than expected.If fresh statistics and forecast support current inflation and growth view, ECB should continue to cut rates.Downward direction of rates is clear and the pace depends on

ECB’s Rehn: Inflation expected to hit ECB’s target in 2025 Read More »

China ambassador says US trade policy will impact China, other countries

Comments from the Chinese Ambassador to Australia: US policy on trade with China and other countries will have impact Expect China and US to engage with each other to talk about each other’s policies on how to manage relationship The last time Trump ramped up tensions with China China responded by kicking Australia with punitive

China ambassador says US trade policy will impact China, other countries Read More »

Bitcoin continues its correction lower today from near 100K levels. What next technically?

The price of Bitcoin surged sharply following President-elect Trump’s victory, climbing from $66,798 on November 4 to $99,800 by Friday. However, over the weekend, the price corrected lower, and this downward momentum continued into Monday and today. The decline has pushed Bitcoin below its 100-hour and 200-hour moving averages, currently at $97,073 and $95,676, respectively.

Bitcoin continues its correction lower today from near 100K levels. What next technically? Read More »

I jinxed it. The Russell 2000 closes below all-time high level by less than a point

The major US stock indices all closed higher on the day. The gains were led by the Russell 2000 which rose by 1.47%. However like a selling took the price below the all-time high closing level of 2442.74 by less than one point. Close, but no cigar. The Dow industrial average did close at a

I jinxed it. The Russell 2000 closes below all-time high level by less than a point Read More »

The USD is mostly lower. Yields are higher. What are the charts telling traders in majors

The USD is mostly lower in up and back-down trading today. The US yields are mixed and so are the major US stock indices. Pres Elect Trump said that a blanket 25% tariff on Canada and Mexico would be one of his first executive orders, and would charge China 10% on all goods that led

The USD is mostly lower. Yields are higher. What are the charts telling traders in majors Read More »

Forexlive European FX news wrap: Positive risk mood despite Trump’s tariffs threats

US oil and gas producers will not raise output significantly in the coming yearsTrump mulls an AI czar – AxiosECB’s Rehn: Inflation expected to hit ECB’s target in 2025ECB’s Centeno: Inflation is getting close to the 2% targetECB’s Villeroy: Trump policies likely to have limited impact on European inflationPotential for dollar selling this month end

Forexlive European FX news wrap: Positive risk mood despite Trump’s tariffs threats Read More »

Japan October PPI Services (Corporate Services Price Index) 2.9% y/y (prior 2.6%)

Japan October 2024 PPI Services (Corporate Services Price Index) more to come *** Japan Services Producer Price Index (PPI) measures the average change over time in the prices received by service providers (in the private sector) for their services in Japan Data published by the Bank of Japancovers services such as transportation and communication, finance

Japan October PPI Services (Corporate Services Price Index) 2.9% y/y (prior 2.6%) Read More »

Market optimism: Microsoft and Nvidia lead gains, healthcare stocks surge

🌟 Sector Overview Today’s stock market heatmap reveals a day of notable optimism across several key sectors. The technology and healthcare sectors emerged as the day’s big winners, while industrial stocks faced slight headwinds. Here’s what investors need to know about the dynamics shaping today’s market landscape. 📈 Technology and Semiconductors: Nvidia (NVDA) is leading

Market optimism: Microsoft and Nvidia lead gains, healthcare stocks surge Read More »

Shanghai Securities News says possibility of a RRR cut in December

Shanghai Securities News cites analysts for the opinion that the People’s Bank of China will possibly cut the RRR in December by 25bps-50bps They say the MLF yesterday paves the way. I’m not sure of that chain of causation though? — The Reserve Requirement Ratio (RRR) is a central bank regulation that sets the minimum

Shanghai Securities News says possibility of a RRR cut in December Read More »

US oil and gas producers will not raise output significantly in the coming years

Exxon Mobil Corp’s Upstream President Liam Mallon said at a conference in London that the Trump’s “drill, baby, drill” will be unlikely under Trump because “the vast majority, if not everybody, is primarily focused on the economics of what they are doing”. The US is pumping more than 13 million barrels of crude a day,

US oil and gas producers will not raise output significantly in the coming years Read More »

USDCAD Technical Analysis – The CAD sells off on Trump’s tariffs threat

Fundamental Overview The US Dollar remains the strongest currency but overall, we haven’t got much action in the past couple of weeks due to the lack of key catalysts and the market’s pricing remaining largely unchanged around roughly three rate cuts by the end of 2025. During the Asian session, we saw the greenback getting

USDCAD Technical Analysis – The CAD sells off on Trump’s tariffs threat Read More »

ForexLive Asia-Pacific FX news wrap: CAD smashed on Trump tariff threat

Bank of England Chief Economist Huw Pill speaking in parliament on TuesdayEuropean Central Bank speakers Tuesday include Mc Caul, CentenoFX option expiries for 26 November 10am New York cutHere is a summary of the policies Trump has said he will pursue in his upcoming 2nd termChina says ‘No one will win a trade war’ after

ForexLive Asia-Pacific FX news wrap: CAD smashed on Trump tariff threat Read More »

ECB’s Villeroy: Trump policies likely to have limited impact on European inflation

That said, Villeroy says that Trump’s policies could have the potential to impact market rates though. And rightfully so, that especially if tariffs add to further economic woes for Europe. For now, policymakers continue to try and feed the narrative of a soft landing in this “recovery” phase. If this is their definition of a

ECB’s Villeroy: Trump policies likely to have limited impact on European inflation Read More »

Bank of England Chief Economist Huw Pill speaking in parliament on Tuesday

1500 GMT/1000 US Eastern time: Bank of England Chief Economist Huw Pill is due to speak to the Economic Affairs Committee from the House of Lords, the upper house of parliament. The subject of questioning will be On Britain’s poor record of economic inactivity and long-term sickness Sheesh. What’s Pill gonna recommend, a rate cut?

Bank of England Chief Economist Huw Pill speaking in parliament on Tuesday Read More »

Fed’s Kashkari hasn’t given up hope on a December FOMC interest rate cut

Bloomberg (gated) with the info from Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis President Neel Kashkari said it is still appropriate to consider another interest-rate cut at the December Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetinggovernment must take steps to achieving a sustainable fiscal pathnatural rate may be higher and policy not as restrictive This article was written

Fed’s Kashkari hasn’t given up hope on a December FOMC interest rate cut Read More »

ECB’s de Guindos: Concerns about high inflation have shifted to economic growth

We will have new projections in DecemberBut developments point to growth remaining fragileGeopolitical risks are increasingPotential changes in US trade policy will only add to the uncertaintyWhen one imposes tariffs, they have to be prepared for retaliation – which can start a vicious cycle At the balance, the emphasis on a “fragile” economy and added

ECB’s de Guindos: Concerns about high inflation have shifted to economic growth Read More »

BoC’s Mendes: Inflation will fade into the background as it settles at 2%

Inflation will fade into the background as it settles at 2%.This will allow Canadian consumers and businesses to spend and invest with confidence.If the economy evolves broadly in line with out forecast, it’s reasonable to expect further rate cuts.We will take decisions one at a time.If the Bank hadn’t raised rates, long-term inflation expectations may

BoC’s Mendes: Inflation will fade into the background as it settles at 2% Read More »

Pepeto’s $600K Presale Highlights Vision for Supporting Memecoins Ahead of 2025

The memecoin market is evolving rapidly, with Pepeto ($PEPETO) emerging as a project focused on supporting and integrating all memecoins through its multifaceted ecosystem. Offering features such as a zero-fee trading platform, a blockchain bridge, and a swap solution, Pepeto aims to enhance interoperability, accessibility, and liquidity in the memecoin space. With its presale price

Pepeto’s $600K Presale Highlights Vision for Supporting Memecoins Ahead of 2025 Read More »

Here is some detail on Rumble allocating some of its cash reserves to Bitcoin

You may have seen the overly excited headlines hitting on this from around the place … they came as Bitcoin was getting smashed lower so were best ignored. However, its not bad news for the crypto and now that some of the excitement has worn off, some detail: Rumble has announced a corporate treasury diversification

Here is some detail on Rumble allocating some of its cash reserves to Bitcoin Read More »

Forexlive Americas FX news wrap: Bonds buy Bessent, Middle East peace hopes weigh on oil

Israel and Lebanon agree to terms of a ceasefire – reportGeopolitics: Israel government has reservations about details of agreement on ceasefireECB’s Nagel: increasingly confident over disinflationFed’s Goolsbee: Interest rates will be lower by the end of 2025US sells 2-year notes at 4.274% vs 4.292% WIECB’s Lane: Gradualism is not a universal principle, some times require

Forexlive Americas FX news wrap: Bonds buy Bessent, Middle East peace hopes weigh on oil Read More »

USDCHF Technical Analysis – Rangebound price action around the highs

Fundamental Overview The US Dollar remains the strongest currency but overall, we haven’t got much action in the past couple of weeks due to the lack of key catalysts and the market’s pricing remaining largely unchanged around roughly three rate cuts by the end of 2025. During the Asian session, we saw the greenback getting

USDCHF Technical Analysis – Rangebound price action around the highs Read More »

Economic calendar in Asia Tuesday, November 26, 2024 – a light one

An almost empty data agenda for the session ahead: Japan Corporate Services Price Index (AKA Services Producer Price Index (PPI)) measures the average change over time in the prices received by service providers (in the private sector) for their services in Japan Data published by the Bank of Japancovers services such as transportation and communication,

Economic calendar in Asia Tuesday, November 26, 2024 – a light one Read More »

Potential for dollar selling this month end – Deutsche

Deutsche notes that the post-election moves in US assets are making for significant rebalancing signals on the basis of relative equity performance. According to the signals from their model, this will see potential for dollar supply with the largest signals being EUR/USD demand and USD/CHF supply. The firm also points out that there has been

Potential for dollar selling this month end – Deutsche Read More »

China says ‘No one will win a trade war’ after Trump tariff threat

Trump threatened tariffs on Canada, Mexico, and more on China earlier: Trump threatens a 25% tariff on Mexico and Canada A statement from the Washington Chinese Embassy “About the issue of US tariffs on China, China believes that China-US economic and trade cooperation is mutually beneficial in nature””No one will win a trade war or

China says ‘No one will win a trade war’ after Trump tariff threat Read More »

USDCAD retraced earlier declines but finds willing sellers near its 200 hour MA.

The USD/CAD gapped lower over the weekend following news that Scott Bessent would be named Treasury Secretary under Trump. However, the initial decline lacked follow-through, and the pair resumed its upward momentum. Key Levels Tested The price rebounded above the August 2024 high at 1.39458 and the 2022 high at 1.39785, signaling bullish intent.Momentum carried

USDCAD retraced earlier declines but finds willing sellers near its 200 hour MA. Read More »

Here is a summary of the policies Trump has said he will pursue in his upcoming 2nd term

Kudo to Reuters for this summary of Trump’s trade policy, climate change, the war in Ukraine, electric vehicles, Americans’ taxes and illegal immigration. Link here: here is a summary of the policies he has said he will pursue when he takes office on Jan. 20 This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

Here is a summary of the policies Trump has said he will pursue in his upcoming 2nd term Read More »

Chair of NATO’s Military Committee says business should prepare for a “Wartime Scenario”

The Chair of NATO’s Military Committee, Admiral Rob Bauer, spoke at an event in Brussels: warned business heads to prepare for a “Wartime Scenario” by bringing production lines back home instead of relying on countries like China or Russia”If we can make sure that all crucial services and goods can be delivered no matter what,

Chair of NATO’s Military Committee says business should prepare for a “Wartime Scenario” Read More »

PBOC is expected to set the USD/CNY reference rate at 7.2357 – Reuters estimate

People’s Bank of China USD/CNY reference rate is due around 0115 GMT. The People’s Bank of China (PBOC), China’s central bank, is responsible for setting the daily midpoint of the yuan (also known as renminbi or RMB). The PBOC follows a managed floating exchange rate system that allows the value of the yuan to fluctuate

PBOC is expected to set the USD/CNY reference rate at 7.2357 – Reuters estimate Read More »

Rhys Mendes, Deputy Governor, Bank of Canada, will speak on Tuesday

08:20 Bank of Canada Deputy Governor Rhys Mendes will speak at the Greater Charlottetown Area Chamber of Commerce in Prince Edward Island. The event is billed as: Rhys Mendes, Deputy Governor, Bank of Canada, will unpack how monetary policy worked to bring inflation down and why it is important to keep inflation near the 2%

Rhys Mendes, Deputy Governor, Bank of Canada, will speak on Tuesday Read More »

European Central Bank speakers Tuesday include Mc Caul, Centeno

1000 GMT/0500 US Eastern time: Speech followed by Q&A by ECB board member Elizabeth McCaul at the EBF’s Executive Committee Meeting in Frankfurt 1500 GMT/1000 US Eastern time: ECB member and Bank of Portugal Governor Mario Centeno will present the Bank of Portugal’s financial stability report Centeno is probably more likely to provide pertinent comments

European Central Bank speakers Tuesday include Mc Caul, Centeno Read More »

Now is probably a really great time to remember the market chaos of 2016-2020

Chaos is not necessarily a bad thing for traders. Its time to get on board. Monday’s narrative: Bessent will moderate Trump on tariffs. What baloney. No sooner did I say this US yields and dollar dropped on Monday on the news that Trump had nominated Scott Bessent as Treasury Secretary. The reasoning is Bessent has

Now is probably a really great time to remember the market chaos of 2016-2020 Read More »

MUFG says the US dollar drop is temporary – still well supported into year-end and beyond

US yields and dollar dropped on Monday on the news that Trump had nominated Scott Bessent as Treasury Secretary. The reasoning is Bessent has indicated “a possible more balanced approach” to trade tariffs. That’s an interesting narrative. Folks love a story. I’d suggest the moves were more due to a cascade of “get me out

MUFG says the US dollar drop is temporary – still well supported into year-end and beyond Read More »

Rabobank look for EUR/USD to parity

A note from RaboBank argues for EUR/USD to parity by mid 2025. Citing: Trump expected to implement trade tariffs, which would negatively impact eurozone economies, particularly Germany’sGerman exporters would thus “almost certainly welcome a softer euro” this could raise further calls for the European Central Bank to continue lowering ratesTrump’s planned tariffs and tax cuts

Rabobank look for EUR/USD to parity Read More »

Barclays notes BoJ’s December meeting now “live” after inflation data

Synopsis: Barclays acknowledges that the Bank of Japan’s (BoJ) December meeting is now “live” following surprising inflation data and Governor Ueda’s recent remarks. While maintaining a January rate hike as their base case, Barclays highlights key factors that could influence an earlier move. Key Points: October Inflation Surprise: Japan’s nationwide October BoJ core CPI rose

Barclays notes BoJ’s December meeting now “live” after inflation data Read More »

PBOC sets USD/ CNY reference rate today at 7.1910 (vs. estimate at 7.2357): 26 November

The People’s Bank of China set the onshore yuan (CNY) reference rate for the trading session ahead. USD/CNY is the onshore yuan. Its permitted to trade plus or minus 2% from this daily reference rate.CNH is the offshore yuan. USD /CNH has no restrictions on its trading range.A significantly stronger or weaker rate than expected

PBOC sets USD/ CNY reference rate today at 7.1910 (vs. estimate at 7.2357): 26 November Read More »

Why Is Bitcoin Performance Outstripping Lagging Ethereum?

Between them, Bitcoin and Ethereum make up 75% of the world’s cryptocurrency market. They both run on blockchain, both can be traded and used to make peer-to-peer payments, and both now have their own exchange-traded funds, as of earlier this year. However, they have their inherent differences. Bitcoin is more recognizable and, despite not having

Why Is Bitcoin Performance Outstripping Lagging Ethereum? Read More »

European Union is proposing sanctions on Chinese firms aiding Russian invasion of Ukraine

Bloomberg carry the report. The news was out earlier, in brief: The European Union has proposed for the first time to target Chinese companies and individuals with visa bans and asset freezes over their dealings with Russian firms linked to Moscow’s war effort in Ukraine, according to RFE/RL. The new measures, which are laid out

European Union is proposing sanctions on Chinese firms aiding Russian invasion of Ukraine Read More »

Goldman Sachs says Trump tariff escalation will delay inflation falling to target

Goldman Sachs published their outlook for inflation in 2025, titling it with the choice that will be made: “Tariffs or 2%” GS says the current level of PCE inflation, 2.7% y/y, “has returned most of the way back to the 2% target”, and that the muchh of the gap from 2.7 down to 2 “appears

Goldman Sachs says Trump tariff escalation will delay inflation falling to target Read More »

ANZ offers up its NZD outlook ahead of the November RBNZ meeting

ANZ highlights that the upcoming RBNZ meeting is unlikely to spark a positive shift for the NZD. Market expectations of a 50bp rate cut align with ongoing dovish policy trends, keeping downside pressure on the NZD against the USD and AUD. While year-end seasonality could provide some upside, near-term prospects remain neutral to negative. Key

ANZ offers up its NZD outlook ahead of the November RBNZ meeting Read More »

ECB’s Nagel: increasingly confident over disinflation

ECB Nagel: Increasingly confident over disinflationRate cuts must be gradual as risks remain.Growth likely to stagnate in Q4Germany falling behind euro zone averageSlower wage growth to help service prices to moderateTrump tariffs boosting eurozone inflation a real risk The EURUSD tried to extend above technical lows including the 100 hour moving average, a downward sloping

ECB’s Nagel: increasingly confident over disinflation Read More »

Scott Bessent understood that Japanese easing was a negative for the yen, but little else

Today is Scott Bessent day in financial markets and that means we’re all trying to get to know him. Naturally, given that he’s an FX guy, we’re all cheering for him. There are far too many academics in government and I don’t think there is any better experience for macro policymaking than global macro trading,

Scott Bessent understood that Japanese easing was a negative for the yen, but little else Read More »

GBPUSD holds swing area resistance and 100 hour MA at session highs. What next?

The GBP/USD pair moved higher from last week’s closing level near 1.2530 but encountered strong resistance around a key swing area between 1.2596 and 1.2614. After testing this zone, buyers gave way to sellers. In the early European session, the price decline paused just ahead of the 1.2530 level, prompting another attempt to the upside.

GBPUSD holds swing area resistance and 100 hour MA at session highs. What next? Read More »

Geopolitics: Israel government has reservations about details of agreement on ceasefire

Al Jezeera is reporting that Israel government has reservations about some details of the agreement of the Israeli Lebanon cease-fire. In other the geopolitical war news: Germany’s defense minister Pitorius says that Russia’s war on Ukraine is no longer a regional conflict, Russia Ukraine war has reached an international dimension Gold continues its decline with

Geopolitics: Israel government has reservations about details of agreement on ceasefire Read More »

Bank of England Dhingra and Lombardelli speaking on Monday

The Bank of England reduced rates by 25 basis points to 4.75% on November 7. 0900 GMT/0400 US Eastern time: Bank of England Deputy Governor Clare Lombardelli gives a speech at the annual Bank of England Watchers’ Conference organised by King’s Business School 1030 GMT/0530 US Eastern time: Bank of England Monetary Policy Committee member

Bank of England Dhingra and Lombardelli speaking on Monday Read More »

The political temperature continues to rise in France

Radio France Internationale reports on the tension in French politics at the moment: Political tensions peak over the French budget, with PM Barnier considering Article 49.3 to bypass parliamentary approval.Opposition, including Le Pen’s far-right RN and the left-wing bloc, threatens a no-confidence vote against the government.Le Pen criticizes Barnier’s inflexibility and dismisses fears of chaos

The political temperature continues to rise in France Read More »

Crude oil is trading sharply lower and down close to $2 on the day

Crude oil prices have dropped sharply as optimism grows for a potential peace agreement between Israel and Lebanon. Currently, prices are down approximately $2, trading near $69.13. The intraday low reached $69.01, bringing the price close to the 200-hour moving average (MA) (depicted as the green line on the chart). This MA level is acting

Crude oil is trading sharply lower and down close to $2 on the day Read More »

Gold tumbles on lower geopolitical risk. Where is the risk now? What are the targets?

Gold Price Decline: A Technical Perspective Gold prices have dropped over $80 today, a decline of 3.00%, marking one of the most significant setbacks for the commodity this year. This comes after five consecutive days of gains last week. The dip coincides with easing geopolitical tensions following discussions of a potential cease-fire between Israel and

Gold tumbles on lower geopolitical risk. Where is the risk now? What are the targets? Read More »

USD selling pushes the USDCHF lower but the 100/200 hour MA is stalling the fall

USD selling has pushed the USDCHF below a swing area between 0.8880 and 0.8992 (call it 0.8900). That comes after a sharp rise in Friday which took the price above technical target. The fall below the swing area is given sellers some comfort after the sharp rise of seen over the last seven or so

USD selling pushes the USDCHF lower but the 100/200 hour MA is stalling the fall Read More »

EURUSD buyers correcting the pair higher to start the new trading week. Buyers make a play

The EURUSD is correcting higher as dollar selling is dominating trading today. Yields are lower with the 10 year now down -11 basis points at 4.300%. The 2-year yield is down -6.4 basis points. Technically, the EURUSD is above a swing area between 1.0483 and 1.0500. The price also is looking to extend above a

EURUSD buyers correcting the pair higher to start the new trading week. Buyers make a play Read More »

It’s all about Scott Bessent today. Five things to know about the incoming Treasury Sec

Market moves today are dominated by repositioning after Trump nominated Scott Bessent to lead the Treasury Department. The US dollar is weaker, Treasury yields are lower and stock futures point to new records. Some quick thoughts: 1) One of us! Bessent is an FX guy. His career was made as a deputy for George Soros.

It’s all about Scott Bessent today. Five things to know about the incoming Treasury Sec Read More »

ECB’s Lane: Gradualism is not a universal principle, some times require stronger response

Flexible meeting by meeting approach assures that we remain responsiveGradualism is not a universal principle, some circumstances require a stronger responseIt is essential that we are agile in respond to risks that might crystallize We must remain open-minded about the speed and scale of rate moves The market is 50/50 on whether we will get

ECB’s Lane: Gradualism is not a universal principle, some times require stronger response Read More »

ICYMI – Cboe to launch cash-settled Bitcoin ETF options from next week

In brief from the Cboe announcement on Friday afternoon US time: The first cash-settled index options related to the price of spot Bitcoin Options are based on the new Cboe Bitcoin U.S. ETF Index, designed to reflect the performance of spot Bitcoin ETFs listed on U.S. exchanges Options on standard and mini index, as well

ICYMI – Cboe to launch cash-settled Bitcoin ETF options from next week Read More »

Dallas Fed manufacturing business index -2.7 vs -3.0 prior

Prior was -3.0Production -0.9 vs +14.6 priorNew orders -11.9 vs -3.7 priorCapex +7.8 vs +4.6 priorEmployment +4.9 vs -5.1 priorOutlook +5.8 vs -3.3 Comments in the report: Chemical manufacturing Global industrial demand for chemicals remains stable but at low levels. Our outlook six months forward is for very slow improvement, but that outlook is uncertain

Dallas Fed manufacturing business index -2.7 vs -3.0 prior Read More »

Reserve Bank of New Zealand rate cut expected on Wednesday 27 November – preview

The Reserve Bank of New Zealand is widely expected to cut its cash rate target by 50bp this week. Preview comments from KiwiBank: we’re expecting another 50bps rate cut on Wednesday. It’s the right thing to do. We know it, the market knows it, and the RBNZ should know it too. The updated OCR track

Reserve Bank of New Zealand rate cut expected on Wednesday 27 November – preview Read More »

Tech sector steadies as consumer cyclical and industrials soar

Sector Overview Today’s US stock market showcased a blend of resilience and gains across several sectors. Technology experienced a modest but stabilizing trend with Microsoft (MSFT) holding firm at +0.04%, while other tech giants like Adobe (ADBE) and Oracle (ORCL) posted gains of 1.26% and 1.13% respectively. Amid these trends, the semiconductor segment saw mixed

Tech sector steadies as consumer cyclical and industrials soar Read More »

Copper Technical Analysis – The sentiment remains mixed

Fundamental Overview Copper continues to have a hard time as the market demands more stimulus from the Chinese officials to stimulate growth more strongly. Copper has been tightly correlated to the Chinese stock market in recent years which just shows the strong dependence of the commodity to the Chinese economy. That should not be surprising

Copper Technical Analysis – The sentiment remains mixed Read More »

BOE’s Dhingra: UK no longer looks like an outlier for inflation among advanced economies

Recent CPI outturns show no asymmetry in inflation unwindingFall in services PPI appears to be slowing but probably due to erratic componentsRisks to outlook is uncertain and difficult to gaugeThe lack of reliable data is hindering monitoring process Do keep in mind that she’s arguably the most dovish member among the policy committee when reading

BOE’s Dhingra: UK no longer looks like an outlier for inflation among advanced economies Read More »

Global oil market overview and what lies ahead for investors by Octa Broker

As a critical resource in the global economy, oil is integral not only to the energy sector but also to industries such as transportation, manufacturing, and agriculture. Changes in its prices impact inflation rates, production costs, and global trade. For instance, oil price increases can accelerate global inflation. This effect ripples through various sectors, with

Global oil market overview and what lies ahead for investors by Octa Broker Read More »

BOE’s Lombardelli: I support a gradual removal of monetary policy restriction

It is too early to declare victory on inflationWill be monitoring data flow in the coming months to calibrate policy as neededUK economy has made good progress on disinflationBut persistent components of inflation and labour market uncertainty are causes for concernOutlook for wages, services prices is unclearBOE is hampered by challenges on quality of labour

BOE’s Lombardelli: I support a gradual removal of monetary policy restriction Read More »

Market Outlook for the Week of 25th – 29th November

The week ahead features several key economic events to watch. On Tuesday, the U.S. will release the CB consumer confidence index, new home sales, and the Richmond manufacturing index, providing updates on consumer sentiment and economic activity. Wednesday’s attention shifts to Australian inflation data, followed by the Reserve Bank of New Zealand’s (RBNZ) monetary policy

Market Outlook for the Week of 25th – 29th November Read More »

Bessent said his policy priority will be to deliver on Trump’s various tax-cut pledges

Wall Street Journal (gated) with the report : In his first interview following his selection, Bessent said his policy priority will be to deliver on Trump’s various tax-cut pledges making his first-term cuts permanenteliminating taxes on tips, social-security benefits and overtime payenacting tariffs and cutting spending will also be a focusas will be “maintaining the

Bessent said his policy priority will be to deliver on Trump’s various tax-cut pledges Read More »

UBS target US$2,900 gold year-end 2025 – preferred hedge against geopolitical tensions

The gold price has fallen away to open the week here in Asia, to lows circa USD2690. Down from a three-week high. On Friday UBS sent out a note confirming their US$2,900 target for gold by year-end 2025. Analysts cite: gold the “preferred hedge against geopolitical tensions” (UBS cite Russia’s launch of an experimental hypersonic

UBS target US$2,900 gold year-end 2025 – preferred hedge against geopolitical tensions Read More »

Crude Oil Technical Analysis – We are approaching the top of the range

Fundamental Overview Crude oil remains confined in a range between the 72.00 resistance and the 67.00 support as the market continues to weigh the future scenarios. On one hand, we have the Trump’s victory which might be seen as bearish in the short term for fear of the tariffs and a slowdown in global growth

Crude Oil Technical Analysis – We are approaching the top of the range Read More »

ForexLive Asia-Pacific FX news wrap: US Treasuries yield falls, USD falls

Bessent said his policy priority will be to deliver on Trump’s various tax-cut pledgesUBS target US$2,900 gold year-end 2025 – preferred hedge against geopolitical tensionsBank of England Dhingra and Lombardelli speaking on MondayPeople’s Bank of China shift to the MLF as the main policy tool – drain today facilitatesEuropean Central Bank speakers Monday include Lane,

ForexLive Asia-Pacific FX news wrap: US Treasuries yield falls, USD falls Read More »

USD is lower to start the new trading week. Stocks higher. Yields Lower

The USD is lower. US stocks are higher in pre-market futures trading. US yields are lower. The market is approving of the naming of Scott Bessent the new Treasury Secretary. Bessent won the battle that was whittled down to Kevin Warsh and Marc Rowan after Howard Lutnick was knocked off the list and was instead

USD is lower to start the new trading week. Stocks higher. Yields Lower Read More »

ForexLive European FX news wrap: Dollar holds lower after opening gap down today

Headlines: Dollar down as Trump picks Scott Bessent for role of Treasury secretaryWeekly update on interest rate expectationsReminder: It will be a holiday-shortened week in the USECB’s Lane: Monetary policy should not remain restrictive for too longBOE’s Lombardelli: I support a gradual removal of monetary policy restrictionBOE’s Lombardelli: We remain focused more on services prices

ForexLive European FX news wrap: Dollar holds lower after opening gap down today Read More »

Germany November Ifo business climate index 85.7 vs 86.0 expected

Prior 86.5Current conditions 84.3 vs 85.4 expectedPrior 85.7Expectations 87.2 vs 87.0 expectedPrior 87.3 German business morale dipped in November with both the current conditions and outlook readings also easing compared to the month before. This just reaffirms the struggles in Europe’s largest economy with storm clouds still brewing going into next year. It’s not a

Germany November Ifo business climate index 85.7 vs 86.0 expected Read More »

European indices build on the Friday jump to be up at the open today

Eurostoxx +0.9%Germany DAX +0.9%France CAC 40 +1.0%UK FTSE +0.4%Spain IBEX +0.7%Italy FTSE MIB +0.6% This comes as US futures are also seen higher, with S&P 500 futures up 0.5% currently. The more positive mood is to do with Trump’s pick for Treasury secretary, Scott Bessent. Here is his take on tariffs among other things, if

European indices build on the Friday jump to be up at the open today Read More »

BOE’s Lombardelli: We remain focused more on services prices and wages

We should not focus too much on one set of data (regarding last week’s PMI data)We remain focused more on services prices and wagesLabour market is still relatively tight This reaffirms the narrative on “gradualism” and if anything, she is shrugging off suggestions that could point towards a rate cut next month. This article was

BOE’s Lombardelli: We remain focused more on services prices and wages Read More »

ICYMI – Financial markets have become more susceptible to liquidity shortages (BIS report)

The Bank for International Settlements have published research showing fnancial markets have become more susceptible to liquidity shortages. Citing the rise of algorithmic trading and increased market fragmentation. From the BIS report, in brief: average bid-ask spread has significantly declined across stock, foreign exchange and government bond markets over the past 25 years, indicating improved

ICYMI – Financial markets have become more susceptible to liquidity shortages (BIS report) Read More »

Gold Technical Analysis – The Treasury Secretary pick weighs on the market

Fundamental Overview Gold saw a quick drop today during the Asian session with the news of Scott Bessent nomination for Treasury secretary as the most likely culprit. Bessent is a fiscal hawk, and the market views him as a great pick for the job. In fact, one of the main reasons why the magnitude of

Gold Technical Analysis – The Treasury Secretary pick weighs on the market Read More »

Dollar down as Trump picks Scott Bessent for role of Treasury secretary

The initial reaction seems to be that billionaire Scott Bessent is a “markets guy”. Wall Street is reacting favourably with US futures gapping higher while bonds are also bid, dampening the dollar. So, why exactly are markets responding to Bessent in such a way? Let’s take a look. Bessent has been a rather vocal guy,

Dollar down as Trump picks Scott Bessent for role of Treasury secretary Read More »

ECB’s Lane: Monetary policy should not remain restrictive for too long

The job is not done yet on inflation, services prices still need to come downInflation is close to the 2% targetBarring new geopolitical or political risks, a large part of the final stage in bringing inflation back to 2% target will be completed next yearMonetary policy must respond to both downside and upside risks to

ECB’s Lane: Monetary policy should not remain restrictive for too long Read More »

Monday morning open levels – indicative forex prices – 25 November 2024

As is usual for a Monday morning, market liquidity is very thin until it improves as more Asian centres come online … prices are liable to swing around, so take care out there. Indicative rates, USD lower to open the new week: EUR/USD 1.0476USD/JPY 154.09GBP/USD 1.2586USD/CHF 0.8925USD/CAD 1.3959AUD/USD 0.6536NZD/USD 0.5858 This article was written by

Monday morning open levels – indicative forex prices – 25 November 2024 Read More »

People’s Bank of China shift to the MLF as the main policy tool – drain today facilitates

The news is here from earlier: PBOC net drain 550bn via MLF. Rate unchanged at 2% The Wall Street Journal (gated) recaps the move from the Bank, pointing out: In recent months, Chinese authorities have been recasting the PBOC’s seven-day reverse repo rate as the main policy rate while letting the shorter-term operation play a

People’s Bank of China shift to the MLF as the main policy tool – drain today facilitates Read More »

Axios: Israeli, US officials state Israel and Lebanon on the cusp of a ceasefire agreement

The Axios report cites Israeli and US officials Israel and Lebanon are on the cusp of a ceasefire agreement Israeli media has reported that Israel agreed in principle to the proposal for a ceasefire in Lebanon Israel Broadcasting Corporation agreement with Lebanon not yet reached, issues remain. We’ll see. Remember though, for markets hope is

Axios: Israeli, US officials state Israel and Lebanon on the cusp of a ceasefire agreement Read More »

Republican Senators warn Canada, Britain, Germany, France: Help ICC, we crush your economy

US Republican Senators Lindsey Graham and Tom Cotton have started to draft a package of sanctions on the International Criminal Court (ICC). Graham spoke on Fox, warning US allies: “To any Ally: Canada, Britain, Germany, France, if you try to help the ICC, we are gonna sanction you. We should crush your economy.” A heads

Republican Senators warn Canada, Britain, Germany, France: Help ICC, we crush your economy Read More »

PBOC is expected to set the USD/CNY reference rate at 7.2257 – Reuters estimate

People’s Bank of China USD/CNY reference rate is due around 0115 GMT. The People’s Bank of China (PBOC), China’s central bank, is responsible for setting the daily midpoint of the yuan (also known as renminbi or RMB). The PBOC follows a managed floating exchange rate system that allows the value of the yuan to fluctuate

PBOC is expected to set the USD/CNY reference rate at 7.2257 – Reuters estimate Read More »

PBOC sets USD/ CNY reference rate today at 7.1918 (vs. estimate at 7.2257): 25 November

The People’s Bank of China set the onshore yuan (CNY) reference rate for the trading session ahead. USD/CNY is the onshore yuan. Its permitted to trade plus or minus 2% from this daily reference rate.CNH is the offshore yuan. USD /CNH has no restrictions on its trading range.A significantly stronger or weaker rate than expected

PBOC sets USD/ CNY reference rate today at 7.1918 (vs. estimate at 7.2257): 25 November Read More »

European Central Bank speakers Monday include Lane, Makhlouf

Coming up from the ECB today: 1630 GMT/1130 US Eastern time: European Central Bank Chief Economist Philip Lane gives a speech at the annual Bank of England Watchers’ Conference organised by King’s Business School 2000 GMT/1500 US Eastern time: Gabriel Makhlouf, governor of the Central Bank of Ireland and a member of the European Central

European Central Bank speakers Monday include Lane, Makhlouf Read More »

Goldman Sachs on 2025: When the Fed cuts, bond market where investors should want to be

Goldman Sachs Asset Management 2025 Outlook report is titled “Reasons to Recalibrate.” On bonds, GS is bullish: “When the Fed cuts rates, history suggests the bond market is where investors should want to be,” see broad-based fixed income gainsexpects the Fed to cut rates in December and early 2025main risk for fixed income is renewed

Goldman Sachs on 2025: When the Fed cuts, bond market where investors should want to be Read More »

Weekend – Trump nominated Scott Bessent to serve as Treasury Department secretary

Bessent and ex-Fed Warsh were two front runners, Bessent has been given the nod. Bessent background, in brief: was the CIO of Soros Fund Managementfounder of Key Square Capital Management, a hedge fundcame out for the MAGA movement after working for Sorosdonated to Trump’s presidential campaign, has donated to Democrats alsoadvised Trump on economic policy

Weekend – Trump nominated Scott Bessent to serve as Treasury Department secretary Read More »

Newsquawk Week Ahead: US PCE, FOMC Minutes, RBNZ rate decision, EZ HICP, and Aussie CPI

Mon: German Ifo (Nov), US National Activity Index (Oct)Tue: FOMC Minutes (Nov); US New Home Sales (Oct), Richmond Fed (Nov)Wed: RBNZ Policy Announcement; Australian CPI (Oct), German GfK (Dec), US GDP 2nd (Q3), PCE Prices Prelim. (Q3), PCE Price Index (Oct), Initial Jobless Claims (23rd Nov), Durable Goods (Oct)Thu: US Holiday: Thanksgiving. CBRT Minutes (Nov);

Newsquawk Week Ahead: US PCE, FOMC Minutes, RBNZ rate decision, EZ HICP, and Aussie CPI Read More »

Weekly Market Outlook (25-29 November)

UPCOMING EVENTS: Monday: PBoC MLF, German IFO.Tuesday: US Consumer Confidence, FOMC Minutes.Wednesday: Australia Monthly CPI, RBNZ Policy Decision, US Q3 GDP 2nd Estimate, US PCE, US Durable Goods, US Jobless Claims.Thursday: German CPI. (US Holiday)Friday: Tokyo CPI, Japan Unemployment Rate, France CPI, Switzerland Q3 GDP, Eurozone CPI, Canada GDP. Tuesday The US Consumer Confidence is

Weekly Market Outlook (25-29 November) Read More »

ECB Villeroy says falling inflation allows the Bank to lower interest rates

Villeroy heads up the Bank of France. He spoke with Ouest-France newspaper, commenting on wages and CPI: “Prices are increasing less quickly than wages on average — this also allows us to lower interest rates” Villeroy stressed that the ECB reaches its interest rate policy decisions independent of the Federal Reserve: “The proof is that

ECB Villeroy says falling inflation allows the Bank to lower interest rates Read More »

Fed: U.S. government fiscal sustainability tops the list of financial system risks

The Fed’s twice yearly Financial Stability Report highlights: U.S. government fiscal sustainability tops the list of financial system risks cited in the Fed survey of market contacts for the semi-annual Financial Stability Report.Persistent inflation dropped to No. 5 on the risks list from No. 1 in the prior survey, now tied with global trade risks.Trade

Fed: U.S. government fiscal sustainability tops the list of financial system risks Read More »

Forexlive Americas FX news wrap 22 Nov: US PMI data better than Europe. USD moves higher.

Major indices close higher for the trading week by the Russell 2000Baker Hughes oil rigs up 1 Gas rigs down -2European shares close higher despite weak data todayAttack the currency trend: The EURUSD has been stepping lower with more selling todayWhat is the latest tilt for US Treasury Secretary?University of Michigan consumer sentiment final for

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USDCHF buyers take the price higher this week after basing at the 50% midpoint at 0.87989

The USD/CHF pair, after trading within a range of 0.8400 to 0.8550 through late August and October, transitioned from consolidation into a trending phase. This shift began as prices broke through key levels in a step-by-step manner, marking the transition from non-trend to trend. Last week, the price moved above the 50% midpoint of the

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University of Michigan consumer sentiment final for November 71.8 versus 73.7 estimate

Preliminary 73.0Consumer sentiment 71.8 versus 73.7 estimate. Preliminary 73.0. Prior month 70.5Expectations and 76.9 versus 78.5 preliminary. Prior month 74.1Current conditions 63.9 versus 64.4 preliminary. Prior month 64.91-year inflation 2.6% versus 2.6% preliminary5-year inflation 3.2% versus 3.1% preliminary. Prior month 3.0% The data was weaker than the preliminary but up from the prior month. The

University of Michigan consumer sentiment final for November 71.8 versus 73.7 estimate Read More »

European shares close higher despite weak data today

The major European indices are closing the day higher despite what was weak flash European PMI data for both manufacturing and service. The final numbers are showing: German DAX +0.89%France’s CAC +0.58%UK’s FTSE 100 1.38%Spain’s Ibex 0.39%Italy’s FTSE MIB 0.60% For the trading week indices are mixed with France and Italy moving lower and Germany,

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EURUSD Technical Analysis – The Euro falls to the lowest level since 2022

Fundamental Overview Overall, we’ve seen a rangebound price action in the US Dollar this week as the market’s pricing remained largely unchanged due to the lack of catalysts at three rate cuts by the end of 2025. This morning, we saw some strong bids in the greenback entirely due to the weak Eurozone PMIs as

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USDJPY stalls the fall today and yesterday at the 100 bar MA on the 4-hour chart

The USD/JPY pair moved lower in the early Asian session but found support once again near the rising 100-bar moving average on the 4-hour chart, currently at 153.944. This level, which also held yesterday and prompted a bounce, remains a key technical support. Staying above this moving average maintains a bullish bias, while a break

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What technical levels are in play for some of the major currencies vs the USD for Nov 22

The European data was yucky (if I can use a favorite word of my grandson). All the data from German GDP, to UK retail sales and flash services and manufacturing data missed the expectations. Only one, UK flash services PMI, was 50.0 or better and it came in right at 50.0. Below is summary of

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Attack the currency trend: The EURUSD has been stepping lower with more selling today

The EUR/USD pair continued its downward trend today, extending a week-long selloff as bearish momentum carried the price through key technical levels. Weak European flash PMI data and concerns from ECB officials over growth and inflation pressured the euro, while stronger-than-expected US PMI data (offset slightly by weaker University of Michigan data) provided support for

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Germany November flash manufacturing PMI 43.2 vs 43.0 expected

Manufacturing PMI 43.2 vs 43.0 expected and 43.0 prior.Services PMI 49.4 vs 51.6 expected and 51.6 prior.Composite PMI 47.3 vs 48.6 expected and 48.6 prior. Key findings: HCOB Flash Germany Composite PMI Output Index(1) at 47.3 (Oct: 48.6). 9-month low. HCOB Flash Germany Services PMI Business Activity Index(2) at 49.4 (Oct: 51.6). 9-month low. HCOB

Germany November flash manufacturing PMI 43.2 vs 43.0 expected Read More »

Singapore Q3 GDP +5.4% y/y (expected +4.6%, preliminary 4.1%)

Singapore Q3 GDP 3.2% q/q expected 2.5%, preliminary was 2.1% +5.4% y/y expected +4.6%, preliminary 4.1% Singapore’s trade ministry upgraded its GDP growth forecast for 2024 to “around 3.5%” from a previous range of 2.0% to 3.0%. The ministry said it expects growth of 1.0% to 3.0% in 2025. This article was written by Eamonn

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Deutsche Bank: Fed unlikely to cut aggressively (strong growth, persistent inflation)

In a client note Deutsche Bank is cautioning against expectations for significant rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, citing robust economic growth and persistent inflationary pressures. While the bank’s baseline scenario envisions a 25-basis-point rate cut in December, it notes this is a “close call” and far from certain. Beyond that, Deutsche Bank anticipates an

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ForexLive Asia-Pacific FX news wrap: Gold, BTC up

Federal Reserve Board Governor Michelle Bowman speaking FridayJust over half of economists surveyed expect the Bank of Japan to hike rates in DecemberEuropean Central Bank President Lagarde, plus Nagel & Schnabel (& others) speaking FridaySwiss National Bank Chairman of the Governing Board, Martin Schlegel, speaking FridayTrump Considers Warsh Serving as Treasury Secretary—and Then Fed ChairGoldman

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SNB chairman Schlegel: Switzerland needs flexible inflation target, as it currently has

Inflation target has allowed central bank to respond flexibly to shocksCentral bank’s main tools are policy rate, FX interventionsGlobal economy slowdown has hit Switzerland harder due to currency appreciationRecognises franc’s safe haven natureWill continue to ensure price stability Not really anything noteworthy there by Schlegel. For now, the SNB is still expected to cut its

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Eurozone November flash services PMI 49.2 vs 51.6 expected

Prior 51.6Manufacturing PMI 45.2 vs 46.0 expectedPrior 46.0Composite PMI 48.1 vs 50.0 expectedPrior 50.0 The stark drop here is largely attributed to the decline in the services sector, in which activity fell to a 10-month low. However, manufacturing conditions also struggled with the contraction deepening amid a further decline in production on the month. As

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Tech giants stumble: Communication services slump amid mixed market signals

Sector Overview The stock market is showcasing a mixed bag of performances today, characterized by a notable decline in communication services, while some tech giants experience pressure. Simultaneously, healthcare and consumer defensive sectors are displaying strength. 📉 Communication Services: This sector is seeing substantial declines, with Google (GOOG) facing a significant drop of 1.52%. Meta

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Japan PM Ishiba says stimulus package will be around 39 trln yen

Japan PM Ishiba says stimulus package will be around 39 trln yen state spending seen around 13.9 tln yenincreasing wages a top priority 39 tln yen is around 252bn USD NHK came about half way with their estimate: Japan’s economic package expected around 21.9 trillion yen This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

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ForexLive European FX news wrap: Poor PMI data weighs on euro, pound

Headlines: Euro slumps to near two-year low as PMI data disappointsEURUSD Technical Analysis – The Euro falls to the lowest level since 2022Poor French and German PMI data keeps ECB 50 bps rate cut in playStocks stumble in European morning tradeGold weathers the storm and looks to make it five for five in trading this

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AUDUSD trading near the middle of the range for the week. Some ST bullish.Some ST bearish.

The AUDUSD opened the week below a swing area between 0.6471 and 0.6479. On Monday the price moved above that area and stayed above it for the rest the week. In trading today, the low price move down to test a low of that swing area but found willing sellers. The price has since rotated

AUDUSD trading near the middle of the range for the week. Some ST bullish.Some ST bearish. Read More »

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