Morgan Stanley forecasts global GDP growth of 3.2% in 2026, with the Fed on hold all year, as an energy shock tests a broadly constructive outlook anchored by US AI spending and consumer demand. Summary: According to Morgan Stanley Global Chief Economist Seth Carpenter, speaking on the firm’s mid-year outlook podcast published May 14: Global […]

Bitcoin is trading near $81,750, up around 2.5% at the time of publication, after rising almost 3.5% from today’s open to its session high. The move comes on the same day that Cerebras Systems (CBRS) delivered one of the most aggressive AI IPO debuts of the year, reinforcing a broader risk-on mood across speculative technology

Prior week 200K (revised to 199K) Initial jobless claims for the week ending May 9 Four-week moving average 203.75K vs 203.0K prior (revised from 203.25K) Continuing claims 1,782K vs 1,790K expected Prior continuing claims 1,766K (revised to 1,758K) Four-week moving average continuing claims 1,781K vs 1,787.75K prior (revised to 1,787.75K) Insured unemployment rate 1.2% vs

Discussed purchases, will talk about board of trade We are trying to balance trade out US has a stronger position because of our trade deficit with China Will also discuss board of investments, that will cover non-strategic and non-sensitive areas where China can invest Think we’re going to see large Boeing orders Also talked about

The Middle east news today was somewhat quiet as Pres. Trump met with China’s Xi. Saudi Arabia had secretive strikes Iran after Iran attacked the energy facilities and civilian infrastructure – Wall Street Journal Regarding Isreal and Lebanon talks: There is no serious breakthroughs in the peace negotiations Lebanon does not have much to offer

The BOE’s Pill is speaking and says: The 2nd round effects on inflation may be stronger They should be focused on attacking those 2nd round effects on inflation We must not allow ourselves to drift off into deep space of unmoored inflation dynamics They do not expect 2nd round effects to be as deep as

Prior was +2.0% (revised to +2.4%) Wholesale sales (excluding petroleum, petroleum products, and other hydrocarbons and excluding oilseed and grain) rose 1.9% to $89.0 billion in March. Sales increased in five of the seven subsectors, representing 79.6% of total wholesale sales. The largest increase came from the machinery, equipment and supplies subsector. Wholesale sales were

Euro area Q1 GDP confirmed at 0.1%Q/Q, the joint-weakest in nine quarters, as industrial output posted its steepest quarterly fall in two years and employment growth slowed sharply. A very bleak day for data from Europe on Wednesday ICYMI. Summary: Q1 GDP was confirmed at 0.1%Q/Q, unchanged from the preliminary estimate, though the annual rate

Prior month 0.4% Total business inventories increased 0.9% in March to $2.710 trillion. Inventories were up 2.0% from a year earlier, but continued to trail the pace of sales growth. Combined distributive trade sales and manufacturers’ shipments totaled $2.059 trillion in March. Sales increased 2.1% from February 2026 The inventories-to-sales ratio declined to 1.32 in

The inflation scare is a being shown in the imported export price data for the month of April import prices for April +1.9% versus 1.0% estimate. Prior month revised higher to 0.9% from 0.8% previously reported. Export prices for April +3.3% versus 1.1% expected. Prior month revised lower to 1.5% from 1.6% previously reported Details

We might get some news when they conclude, or perhaps we’ll be kept waiting until tomorrow. We’ll soon find out! In other events, Japan’s government is considering extra budget, according to meida reports. Chief Cabinet Sec Kihara says no immediate need though. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

The U.S. Senate confirmed Kevin Warsh as the Federal Reserve chair succeeding Jerome Powell. All Democrats apart from one Kevin Fetterman from Pennsylvania voted against Warsh. Check Powell’s term as Fed chair ends on May 15. The markets will test Chair Warsh and already are with the 30 year bond yields above 5%. The yield

NQ futures analysis today: Nasdaq 100 futures mildly bearish as sellers defend upper value NQ JUN26 futures carry a mildly bearish to bearish short-term read today, with a Prediction Score of -3 / +10. Sellers rejected the upper area near 29600-29610, pushed price back through 29571.50, and drove NQ toward the lower value area near

KC Fed Pres Schmid is speaking and says: Continued inflation is the most pressing risk to the economy It is clear inflation remains too high US economy has shown “remarkable resilience” and economic fundamentals remain sound Higher oil prices still drain household spending power and raise business costs US economy less vulnerable to global oil

Prior month 1.7% revised lower to 1.6% Retail sales 0.5% vs 0.5% estimate Ex Auto 0.7% vs 0.6% estimate. Prior 1.9% Ex Gas and Auto 0.5% vs 0.6% last month. Prior month 0.7% revised higher from 0.6% Control group 0.5% versus 0.4% expected. Prior revised higher to 0.8% from 0.7%. The control group feeds into

Speaking on a Fox Interview: China would not give Iran military equipment China agreed to order 200 Boeing jets Xi offered to help on Iran Xi said he would like to continue to buy oil from Iran. Does not like China support to Iran This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com.

FUNDAMENTAL OVERVIEW USD: The US dollar regained some ground this week as US and Iran rejected the respective war-ending proposals and US inflation data came out higher than expected. Overall, the market remains rangebound as traders continue to wait for new developments before picking a direction. Looking ahead, the Fed is slowly abandoning the easing

The USDJPY has seen volatile two-way price action today. Earlier in the session, the pair fell sharply from resistance near 157.97 to a low around 157.50 before rebounding. More recently, after pushing into a key swing area between 157.975 and 158.36 — with the high reaching 158.16 — the pair reversed lower and tumbled to

Dan Ives: Poland could become Europe’s AI breakout story Just heard one of my favorite analysts. An incredible wise, experienced, insightful and clear human that I think people shuld listen to. Dan Ives of Wedbush believes Europe is at risk of falling further behind in the global technology race unless it becomes more supportive of

OPEC has cut its 2026 global oil demand growth forecast to 1.17 million bpd from 1.38 million bpd, citing the Iran war, while OPEC+ output fell 1.74 million bpd in April on the Hormuz closure. News out overnight, ICYMI. Summary: OPEC lowered its 2026 global oil demand growth forecast to 1.17 million bpd from 1.38

Sector Overview The stock market today reveals a distinctive pattern dominated by a surprising surge within the semiconductor sector, balancing a variety of performance from other sectors. The heatmap demonstrates standout growth, particularly influenced by top performers such as Nvidia (NVDA) with a robust increase of 3.27% and Broadcom (AVGO) leading the way at 4.14%.

UBS and Morgan Stanley have turned positive on Chinese equities, citing earnings recovery, AI momentum and China’s low sensitivity to oil price swings, as the Shanghai Composite climbs to an 11-year high. Summary: UBS and Morgan Stanley have issued positive outlooks on Chinese equities, citing earnings recovery, improving liquidity and the growing appeal of AI,

South Korean Finance Minister says KRW volatility is excessive compared with economic fundamentals. Add then that adds the currency is to quickly stabilise if external conditions improve. Makes mention also of the strike at Samsung and that it could could become a significant risk in the economy. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at

The People’s Bank of China is due to set the daily USD/CNY reference rate at around 0115 GMT (2115 US Eastern time), a fixing that remains one of the most closely watched signals in Asian foreign exchange markets. China operates a managed floating exchange rate system, under which the renminbi (yuan) is allowed to trade

Prior +0.1% GDP +1.1% vs +0.8% y/y expected Prior +1.0% More to come.. This article was written by Justin Low at investinglive.com.

The USDCHF has been trapped between support and resistance over the last three trading days, with price action turning increasingly compressed as traders wait for the next catalyst. On the downside, the pair’s break above the 200-hour moving average at 0.78037 has helped establish that level as near-term support. Just below sits the 100-hour moving

FUNDAMENTAL OVERVIEW USD: The US dollar regained some ground this week as US and Iran rejected the respective war-ending proposals and US inflation data came out higher than expected. Overall, the market remains rangebound as traders continue to wait for new developments before picking a direction. Looking ahead, the Fed is slowly abandoning the easing

The AUDUSD is breaking to the downside after sellers regained control in today’s trading. Recall that yesterday the pair found support against the 100-hour moving average during the early North American session and pushed higher. That rally extended above Monday’s high at 0.72587 and last Thursday’s high at 0.72635. However, buyers could not generate enough

The USDCAD is breaking above its 100-day moving average at 1.3718, a key technical level that has repeatedly capped rallies over the past month. Recall that on Tuesday the pair briefly moved above that moving average, only to quickly reverse lower. Yesterday, sellers once again leaned against the same level and stalled the advance. Today,

Markets are taking a more measured tone to start the day as President Trump meets with China’s Premier Xi while traveling abroad. At the same time, the Iran-US conflict appears to be temporarily on hold, helping ease some geopolitical anxiety. Crude oil is trading about $0.70 lower on the day, fluctuating above and below the

The UAE has denied Israel PM Netanyahu visited the country for a secret meeting with its president during the Iran war, contradicting a claim by Netanyahu’s office of an historic diplomatic breakthrough. Summary: Netanyahu’s office said he travelled to the UAE during the Iran war and held a secret meeting with Sheikh Mohammed bin Zayed,

FUNDAMENTAL OVERVIEW Silver has been diverging with gold recently as it’s been rallying steadily since last week. They are generally correlated but can decouple sometimes. Silver is also much more volatile, so it might just be exacerbating the boost from falling real yields. The fundamentals haven’t changed. We still have the US and Iran in

Intel stock analysis today: INTC fails to hold the market gap-up as sellers press toward key support Intel stock is flashing a more bearish short-term structure after failing to hold yesterday’s market-wide gap-up. INTC was up more than 4% at one stage in pre-market trading, but that strength faded quickly. The latest Structure Read score

The 1% rule is a popular and time-tested strategy to consider. In this article, Elev8, a global CFD broker, provides a mathematical basis for traders to elevate their risk management and support long-term participation in the financial markets. What is the 1% rule The 1% rule is a risk management principle stating that a trader

We have China president Xi Jinping up first: Had in-depth exchange of views with US president Trump today We both believe US-China ties are the most important bilateral ties in the world US, China should become partners, not rivals Mutual respect is key to stable US-China ties Should jointly promote relations between the two countries

Headlines: China president Xi says mutual respect is key to stable US-China ties China purchases of soybeans are all taken care of, says Bessent Trump and Xi had a good meeting, says White House official USD/JPY flirts with a key upside breakout as yen’s intervention-led gains continue to fade Nasdaq analysis today after Trump and

No immediate policy action in April does not imply a looking-through approach to current inflation episode Stagflation is not part of the current baseline Inflation likely to remain elevated for some time, even if the Middle East conflict were to be resolved quickly The longer the shock persists, the greater the risks of second round

Earlier: 6.8401 is the strongest setting for CNY since March 24, 2023 The offshore yuan has now hits its highest since 9 February 2023. Probably some messaging to Trump in this … This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

The gap between the setting at 6.8401 and the model estimate at 6.7888 is 540+ pips, the biggest since March 2. PBoC looks like it wants to stabilise the yuan rise. On the other hand, thats the strongest set for CNY since March 24, 2023 PBOC injects 500mn yuan via 7-day reverse repos in open

New yuan loans for the month of April came in at -¥10 billion. Yes, that’s another negative reading and one to follow up the supposed blip from July last year. Once is maybe a coincidence, but twice and it’s starting to draw questions of whether there is an underlying problem with credit demand conditions. That

The two sides discussed ways to enhance economic cooperation Also discussed expanding market access for US businesses into China and increasing Chinese investment Trump, Xi highlighted need to build on progress in ending fentanyl crisis Also talked about increasing Chinese purchases of US agricultural products Both sides agreed that Strait of Hormuz must remain open

Morgan Stanley raised its S&P 500 year-end target to 8,000 from 7,800, citing strong earnings growth driven by AI adoption, while warning that rate hikes remain the primary threat to its bullish case. Summary: Morgan Stanley raised its S&P 500 year-end target to 8,000 from 7,800, implying around 8% upside from Tuesday’s close of 7,400,

Despite the sharply higher-than-expected PPI inflation data today, buyers were not deterred in the broader equity market. Both the S&P 500 and NASDAQ continued to push higher, even as Treasury yields moved up, with the 10-year yield trading just below 4.50% at 4.470% and the 30-year yield moving back above the 5.0% level to 5.04%.

Even so, headline inflation increased further by 0.4% on the month with price pressures seen more widespread. Restaurants and accommodation services saw a 1.2% increase with clothing and footwear reflected a 6.0% jump in prices. Meanwhile, transportation prices saw a 0.9% jump. As for the annual estimate, it is all down to higher energy prices.

There’s not much in it so far. US president Trump and China president Xi shook hands at the Great Hall of the People in Beijing before taking turns to meet with the respective delegations from each country. And all they did was exchange some light comments before making their opening remarks so far. As you

This will be in observance of Ascension Day and with it being on a Thursday, we could see many people take a “bridge” holiday on Friday into the weekend as well. The holiday here is not one that is observed in Spain or Italy though, with Assumption Day (in August) being the more important celebration.

The S&P and NASDAQ indices close at record levels. The Dow industrial average lags ECBs Lane:Monetary policy decisions will continue to be made on a meeting-by-meeting basis Kevin Warsh confirmed as the Fed Chair Minneapolis Fed Pres. Kashkari: Inflation is too high BOC Meeting Minutes: Sees future rate adjustments would likely be small. US treasury

Japan’s government is considering a supplementary budget to ease household fuel costs ahead of summer, Kyodo reports, sending 30- and 40-year JGB yields higher on increased debt issuance fears. Summary: Japan’s government is considering a supplementary budget aimed at reducing the burden of rising fuel costs on households ahead of the summer peak-demand season, according

Cisco is cutting circa 4,000 jobs in a restructuring costing up to $1 billion, freeing resources for AI, silicon and security investment after AI orders from hyperscalers surpassed its full-year target early. Summary: Cisco will cut just under than 4,000 jobs, circa 5% of its workforce, in a restructuring costing up to $1 billion in

Prior +0.5%; revised to +0.4% Services output +0.3% vs -0.1% m/m expected Prior +0.5% Industrial output -0.2% vs -0.3% m/m expected Prior +0.5%; revised to +0.3% Manufacturing output +1.2% vs 0.0% m/m expected Prior -0.1%; revised to -0.2% Construction output +1.5% vs -0.5% m/m expected Prior +1.0%; revised to +0.5% More to come.. This article

FUNDAMENTAL OVERVIEW USD: The US dollar regained some ground this week as US and Iran rejected the respective war-ending proposals and US inflation data came out higher than expected. Overall, the market remains rangebound as traders continue to wait for new developments before picking a direction. Looking ahead, the Fed is slowly abandoning the easing

Boston Fed President Susan Collins raised the possibility of rate hikes if inflation broadens, citing rising inflation expectations and tariff pass-through as key risks to the outlook. Earlier: Feds Collins:It’s possible the Fed will need to hike rates to cool inflation pressures More from Fed’s Collins:Strong productivity gains should help lessen inflationary pressure Summary: Collins

Need to pay attention to whether inflation triggered by yen depreciation may raise inflation expectations The risk there is that it may also raise underlying inflation BOJ will continue to raise policy rate in response to economic, price, financial developments Japan has clearly entered into inflationary phase What is vital now is to ensure that

There isn’t much on the data agenda to shift around financial markets too much upon release. Trump is in China so no doubt we’ll get some headlines, ‘BIG NEWS coming!”, you know the sort of thing, Followed by a nothingburger. Perhaps the “outline of a concept of a plan” … again, you know the sort

ECBs Lane gave a speech at a Dinner event. Below are the main commentary on the Economy/Policy. Supply-driven energy shocks hurt euro area growth: Lane said oil-price increases caused by supply disruptions — especially geopolitical events — tend to lower euro area GDP growth by around 0.2–0.3 percentage points over the following years through weaker

There are just a couple of expiries to take note of on the day, as highlighted in bold below. They are both for EUR/USD at the 1.1700 to 1.1750 levels. They don’t tie much to any key technical levels, even if the 100-day moving average may be resting nearby at 1.1707 currently. But to the

The RICS UK house price balance fell to -34 in April from -25 in March, the weakest reading since November 2023, as Iran war fallout and rising mortgage rate expectations weighed on buyer sentiment. As an aside, eyes are on UK politics: UK Starmer: Has made clear to allies, he will stand & fight if

Standard Chartered says suspected Japanese FX intervention totalling around $65 billion has shifted the yen from slightly undervalued to slightly overvalued, with authorities appearing to defend a 150-160 USD/JPY floor. Summary: Standard Chartered analysts said that suspected Japanese foreign exchange interventions have shifted the yen from slightly undervalued to slightly overvalued territory The bank estimated

A Chinese VLCC carrying nearly 2 million barrels of Iraqi crude has exited the Strait of Hormuz after more than two months stranded in the Gulf, heading to Zhoushan with an expected June 1 arrival. Info via Reuters. Summary: The VLCC Yuan Hua Hu, carrying nearly two million barrels of Iraqi Basrah Medium crude, transited

Secretary of State Marco Rubio is pressing China to use its leverage against Iran over Tehran’s actions in the Persian Gulf. In a Fox interview Rubio said he hopes to convince China to play a more active role in trying to convince Iran to walk away from what they are doing in the Gulf. Trump

The OECD secretary-general said the BOJ is not clearly behind the curve on rates and called for reform of international trading rules, describing the upcoming Trump-Xi summit as an important part of that process. Summary: The BOJ is not considered clearly behind the curve on monetary policy, with inflation expectations anchored and wage dynamics continuing

The BOC Meeting meeting minutes are out for the April 29 meeting. International economy Middle East war increased uncertainty, pushed oil prices sharply higher, and added to global inflation pressures. US economy remained relatively solid with resilient consumer spending and continued AI investment, although hiring stayed soft. China’s economy was viewed as relatively insulated near

The U.S. Treasury auctioned off $25 billion of the 30 year bonds at a high yield of 5.046% WI level at the time of the auction 5.041% Tail 0.5 basis points Bid to cover 2.30X Directs 21.74% Indirects 66.6% Dealers 11.66% AUCTION GRADE C The third of three coupon auctions this week. The three year

Prior +0.3%; revised to +0.2% There was a negative revision to the Q4 estimate, and that’s the only minor tweak to the preliminary report. Other than that, this just reaffirms that the euro area economy did post marginal growth in the first quarter of the year. After a more resilient showing to start the new

Fed Pres. Kashkari is speaking and says Inflation is too high A huge question mark about how long Strait of Hormuz will be closed, that will have a big effect on inflation. Fed needs to get back to 2% inflation, should not move the goalposts. Before the Iran conflict, had confidence that the inflation was

As the North American session gets underway, the US dollar is trading higher while equity markets are mostly firmer. Chip stocks are helping lead the gains after reports confirmed that Jensen Huang was traveling to China with President Trump and the US delegation. That news has helped lift shares of NVIDIA and supported broader tech

Has been expecting to see continued productivity gains, it’s not just AI-driven. Employment rate remains relatively low. There is been a long list of recent supply shocks, is very focused on supply-side issues. Fed inflation targeting factors driving prices. Strong productivity gains should help lessen inflationary pressures Looks forward to working with new Fed chair

ECBs Kocher on the wires saying: A June hike is not a baseline for the ECB Says that the ECB decides on a meeting by meeting basis. A 50 bps hike is very unlikely The market is for a series of hikes going into year-end. This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com.

Via telegram sources: Crude prices advanced steadily through Tuesday’s session as tensions between the United States and Iran showed little sign of easing, though the market’s attention is already shifting toward Trump’s planned visit to China on Wednesday. Middle East developments continued to generate headlines, with an Iranian parliamentary spokesperson raising the possibility of uranium

BOE Monetary Policy Committee member Mann is speaking and says: Recent geopolitical events have reinforced how exposed the UK economy is to international shocks that require a policy response. Implications of new sources of finance for the UK current account deficit are not simple. A tighter policy stance could trigger volatility as new actors unwind

In case you missed it: US April CPI 3.8% y/y vs 3.7% expected It was no surprise that headline inflation got another bump up on the back of higher energy prices. However, core prices were also seen moving up as shelter prices in particular reaccelerated on the month. But even with that aside, there were

In 2025 73% of Americans said doing OK or comfortably financially, unchanged from 2024 In 2025 63% said could cover over $400 emergency with cash or equivalent, unchanged from 2024 Certain demographic groups, including low-income, young, and Black adults, saw meaningful declines in assessments of financial wellbeing In 2025 42% of adults said “finding or

Right now Fed policy well positioned to deal with risks Expects Fed will need to keep restrictive policy for some time It’s possible US central bank will need to hike interest rates to cool inflation pressures Essential for Fed to do what’s needed to get inflation to 2% Hopes economy will allow for more rate

UK PM Starmer is saying: Has made it clear to allies that he will stand and fight if Wes Streeting to succeed in triggering a leadership contest. Starmer and Streeting met this morning in what was dubbed “showdown,” though Streeting spent less than 20 minutes in Downing Street. The meeting lasted just 16 minutes, and

Sector Overview The stock market heatmap displays a vivid narrative across sectors with notable performances in technology and healthcare. Among the standout sectors, Semiconductors reveal a bifurcated performance. Key player Nvidia (NVDA) rises by 1.73%, indicating a positive tilt despite the sector’s mixed presence. Micron Technology (MU) also impresses with a substantial gain of 5.22%,

Morgan Stanley’s base case is gradual Iran de-escalation and a patient Fed, but four alternate scenarios range from a 100bp rate hike to global recession triggered by $140-160 oil. Summary: Morgan Stanley’s base case assumes gradual de-escalation of the Iran conflict, a short-lived headline inflation spike, a patient Federal Reserve and trend economic growth, per

Crude oil inventory -4.306 million versus -2.051 million estimate Distillates +0.190 million versus -2.735 million estimate Gasoline -4.084 million versus -2.914 million estimate Cushing -1.702 million versus -0.648 million last week The private data announced late yesterday showed: Crude oil -2.2M Distillates -0.3M Gasoline +0.5M Cushing -1.8M The price of crude oil ahead of the

The major stock indices are mixed with the Dow industrial average lower by -0.60%. The S&P index trading above and below unchanged (currently up 0.15%) and the NASDAQ index of 0.62%. The Nasdaq is close to the record close at 26274.13 (currently at 26255 with a high at 26274.78). The S&P is also testing the

Eurozone hasn’t fallen into stagflation Don’t see reasons to talk about recession now The ECB will need a fast resolution on Hormuz to hold in June While the US-Iran war and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz have pushed headline inflation higher and dampened economic activity, Muller remains cautiously optimistic about the underlying economic

Ever since COVID, the media has been quick to jump on any new disease outbreak, trying to catch the beginning of the next global pandemic. In 2024, the bets were on a mutated monkeypox virus, following a rise in infections and deaths. Some governments even floated the idea of closing airports to prevent the virus

The US dollar did move higher after the US PPI data, but the reaction varied across the major currency pairs. Some currencies pushed to new highs versus the greenback, while others remained trapped within established trading ranges. The AUD continues to outperform against the USD, while the CAD is little changed on the day. EURUSD:

Headlines: USD/JPY nudges back up towards 158.00 mark as dollar holds firmer on the week Gold continues to consolidate amid prolonged US-Iran stalemate, hawkish Fed risk ECB’s Villeroy: We don’t have enough information on core inflation yet ECB’s Muller: The ECB will need a fast resolution on Hormuz to hold in June ECB’s Rehn: Monetary

Data only this post, Australian Wage Price Index Q1 2026 +3.3% y/y vs. expected +3.3%, prior +3.4% +0.8% q/q vs. expected +0.8%, prior +0.8% This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

Nvidia chief executive Jensen Huang is set to join President Donald Trump’s delegation to China this week, accompanying more than a dozen US business leaders on the visit. Huang was not included on the White House’s initial executive list, and Nvidia’s H200 chips have yet to receive Chinese government clearance for sale in the country.

There aren’t any major expiries to take note of on the day, with the full list seen below. The market mood is relatively muted as traders and investors continue to weigh up the US-Iran situation for the most part. There’s still no positive breakthrough and that is keeping broader markets on edge, with oil prices

Social media is full of credit tips and money hacks. Some are risky, while others focus on building simple routines that support responsible credit use. But when you’re new to credit, telling the difference isn’t always easy. One way to evaluate advice is to look for tips that reinforce good credit habits. To get you

Prior month 0.5% MoM and 4.0% YoY Prior month ex food and energy 0.1% MoM and 3.8% YoY PPI MoM 1.4% versus 0.5% estimate PPI YoY 6.0% versus 4.9% estimate PPI ex food and energy MoM 1.0% vs 0.3% estimate.Highest since March of 2022. PPI ex food and energy YoY 5.2% vs 4.3% estimate PPI

EBC Financial Group signs 3-year partnership with United to Beat Malaria and steps up as a Gold Sponsor of the Move Against Malaria 5K, deepening a commitment to helping more children reach their fifth birthday EBC Financial Group signs 3-year partnership with United to Beat Malaria and steps up as a Gold Sponsor of the

Monetary policy should not be based on oil prices alone ECB needs to assess whether the energy shock spreads to inflation expectations, wages and core inflation It’s worth preparing for a protracted conflict in the Strait of Hormuz If events turned out differently, it would be easier to adjust Key factors are the strength and

There’s not much else to say that we haven’t said already when it comes to the yen currency. The struggle continues despite the MOF’s latest intervention efforts and we’re starting to see traders push the limits of Tokyo officials once again. There was a bit of a minor shove lower yesterday in USD/JPY but not

The PBOC allows the yuan to fluctuate within a +/- 2% range, around this reference rate. Injects 500mn yuan via 7-day reverse repos in open market operates today. Unchanged rate of 1.4%. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

FUNDAMENTAL OVERVIEW The S&P 500 has been printing record highs almost daily despite the prolonged US-Iran stalemate and the Strait of Hormuz closure. The rally in April was justified by easing US-Iran tensions, the constant push for a diplomatic resolution instead of another full-fledged war and expectations that a deal would be reached eventually. Now,

The item of note is the Reserve Bank of New Zealand’s quarterly Survey of Inflation Expectations. This is shaping up as a closely monitored test of whether the recent acceleration in consumer prices is feeding through into longer-term inflation psychology, according to analysis from Westpac. The survey, which captures the views of businesses, economists and

Some of the big winners over the last month became big losers in trading today. Looking at the infograph below Qualcomm tumbled -11.66% but is still up 59.88% for the month. Intel fell -6.81% but is still up 85.06% and SanDisk is down -5.56% but is still up 53.45%. So for some, this is just

Iran has restored operational access to 30 of its 33 Hormuz missile sites and retains 70% of its prewar missile stockpile, posing a continued threat to warships and oil tankers, US assessments show. Summary: US assessments reviewed by people with knowledge of the findings show Iran has restored operational access to 30 of the 33

FUNDAMENTAL OVERVIEW Gold got stuck in another consolidation as the US-Iran stalemate extended further. We’ve been even getting reports of Trump considering a resumption of the war more seriously as, using Trump’s words, the ceasefire holds on “life support” after a “garbage” Iran’s peace proposal. Now, this might just be his usual hawkish rhetoric without

The OECD projects the Bank of Japan will raise its policy rate to 2% by end-2027 from 0.75% currently, backing continued hikes on solid wage growth and a closed output gap. Summary: The OECD projects the Bank of Japan will raise its short-term policy rate to 2% by the end of 2027, up from the

CPI +2.2% vs +2.2% y/y prelim Prior +1.7% HICP +2.5% vs +2.5% y/y prelim Prior +2.0% The monthly change itself also shows a 1% increase in headline inflation, leading to the annual estimate to cross back above the 2% mark in April. Of note, energy prices once again picked up in recording a 4.7% increase

Wholesale prices +2.0% m/m Prior +2.7% Wholesale prices +6.3% y/y Prior +4.1% It’s no surprise as we’re seeing this spread through to all parts of the economy, such as producer prices and also in part consumer prices too. The only positive note on the latter is that it hasn’t quite spread to core inflation just

Goldman Sachs says the energy price shock will keep US yields elevated and drive broad dollar strength across G10, with favoured longs against the krona, euro and pound. Summary: Goldman Sachs strategists said the combination of rising inflation and resilient economic growth has already produced higher-for-longer US yields, with any prolonged energy shock set to

Citi maintains a buy rating and $300 price target on Nvidia ahead of May 20 earnings, projecting Q1 revenue of $80bn, above the $78.6bn Street consensus, on strong Blackwell chip demand. Summary: Citi has reiterated a buy rating and $300 price target on Nvidia ahead of its first-quarter fiscal 2027 earnings due after market close

Nasdaq Futures tradeCompass Today: NQ Tests the 29300-29325 Decision Zone Prediction Score: +2 / +10 Bias: Mildly bullish while above 29250, but not a clean chase-long unless NQ accepts above 29325 Nasdaq futures are repairing after the sharp drop and rebound seen on the 30-minute chart, but price is now testing a key resistance area

Goldman Sachs sees broad dollar strength as energy shock keeps yields elevated Reserve Bank of New Zealand survey shows rising inflation expectations OECD chief backs BOJ path and calls for trade reform ahead of Trump-Xi talks Iran rebuilds access to 30 of 33 Hormuz missile sites, US assessments show OECD sees BOJ hiking rates to

The ECB must be ready to intervene on second-round effects We don’t have enough information on core inflation yet ECB’s Villeroy reiterates his cautious stance on interest rates as he’s waiting for more data to confirm the need for a rate hike. Earlier this month, Villeroy highlighted that the ECB currently lacks a “critical mass

Wall Street inflation anxiety deepened after Tuesday’s hot CPI print, with five-year break-even rates at their highest since October 2022 and the 10-year measure at 2.5%, its peak since 2023. I posted earlier on this here: Hot US inflation print fans fears of Fed rate hike as energy costs spread adding more now. Summary: The

Discover the truth about backtesting vs forward testing The post Backtesting Vs Forward Testing appeared first on TradingwithRayner.

New Zealand PM Luxon: Government committed to putting debt on a downward path towards 40% of GDP, returning to Obegalx surplus by FY 2028/29 Net operating spending on new initiatives will total NZ$2.1 bln, about NZ$300 mln less than set in December Global uncertainties reinforced importance of responsible economic management and fiscal discipline This article

Earlier: Goldman Sachs says yuan 20% undervalued, lifts forecasts to 6.50 in a year – The People’s Bank of China is due to set the daily USD/CNY reference rate at around 0115 GMT (2115 US Eastern time), a fixing that remains one of the most closely watched signals in Asian foreign exchange markets. China operates

The price of crude oil futures is settling at $102.18, up $4.11 or 4.19% on the day. The strong rally pushed the price back above its 200-hour moving average — currently at $100.21 — for the first time since May 5, giving buyers stronger short-term control. Importantly for the bullish bias, once the price broke

New Zealand 2-Year Inflation Expectations Q2 2026: 2.5% (2-years seen as the time frame when RBNZ policy action will filter through to prices) prior 2.4% 1-Year Inflation Expectations 3.4% prior 2.6% Preview and impications here: Economic and event calendar in Asia Wednesday, May 13, 2026 This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

Iraq and Pakistan have struck separate deals with Iran for oil and LNG passage through the Strait of Hormuz, as Tehran formalises control of the waterway with vessel traffic at 5% of pre-war levels. Reuters carried the report. Summary: Iraq secured Iranian approval for two very large crude carriers, each carrying around 2 million barrels,

US stocks close mixed. Rotation out of high flyers, and into industrials UK Energy Min. Milband told cabinet ministers he is prepared to run for Labour leadership Crude oil is settling at $102.18 up $4.11 or 4.19% The federal budget surplus for April $215 billion which is less than the $220 billion est. Trump News:

Nearly 100 labor ministers have called for the prime minister Starmer to resign. Wes Streeting is expected to meet with Starmer tomorrow morning and ask how he expects to solve the problems. If that leads to asking and getting Starmer to step down, Milband will run for the Labour leadership, but the process is a

Pres. Trump speaking to reporters before heading off to China, is saying: Will have long talk with he about the Iran war. Don’t think you need Xi’s help on Iran The blockade has been 100% successful You are going to have s gusher of oil If you look back 3-4 months ago, you would think

While UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer hangs on politically, the GBPUSD is moving sharply lower and is currently the biggest decliner among the major currency pairs against the stronger US dollar. The pair is down around -0.65% on the day, with sellers maintaining control after key technical breaks during the Asian-Pacific and European sessions. Technically,

Budget surplus $215 billion versus $220 million expected. A year ago the surplus was $258 billion. Fiscal 2026 year-to-date deficit $954 billion versus comparable fiscal 2025 deficit of $1.049 trillion April net customs receipts $22.12 billion. Budget outlays $622 billion versus $592 billion in April 2025. Budget receipts $837 billion versus $850 billion in April

More from Fed’s Goolsbee: inflation is going the wrong way, not just in oil and tariff related things. Drift upward and services inflation is a worry. Today’s unexpected disappointment was seeing services inflation going up Labor market is stable but it is not good The job market is basically stable but inflation is going up.

The U.S. Treasury sold $42 billion of 10 year notes at a high yield of 4.468% WI level at the time of the auction 4.464% Bid to cover 2.400X Tail 0.4 basis points Directs 24.07% Indirects 63.95% Dealers 11.98% The domestic buyers were better than the 6 month average but the international buyers were much

Prior was +3.3% y/y CPI m/m +0.6% vs +0.6% expected Prior m/m +0.9% Core measures: Core CPI m/m +0.4% vs +0.3% expected. Last month +0.2% Core CPI y/y +2.8% vs +2.7% expected. Last month was +2.6% Real weekly earnings -0.2% vs -0.9% prior Shelter +0.6% vs +0.3% last month Shelter y/y +3.3% Services less energy

The US Appeals court temporarily pauses trade court ruling against Trumps 10% tariffs. What is the backstory for this ruling? After the Supreme Court ruled in February that President Trump had exceeded his authority in ordering double-digit tariffs on virtually everything the US imports, Trump sought to replace the import taxes using a different law.

Trump is highlighting that ships are coming to Texas and Louisiana to load American oil — a positive development for US exporters and energy producers. Higher exports can support domestic drilling activity, investment, jobs, and overall energy-sector profits. For oil-producing states and companies tied to the energy industry, the increase in global demand for US

The Senate has confirmed Kevin Warsh as a Federal Reserve Governor on the Federal Reserve Board. The next step is to nominate and vote on him as the next Fed chair ahead of the May 15 deadline. The vote is to take place either tomorrow or on Thursday. Current Fed chair Powell, will then be

The US stock indices are opening lower with the S&P down -0.42%, Nasdaq futures off -0.54%, and Russell 2000 futures down -0.83%. Dow futures are down -0.49%. Key Driver: Hotter-Than-Expected Inflation Consumer prices rose 3.8% annually in April, slightly above the consensus estimate of 3.7%, rattling markets ahead of the open. The 10-year US Treasury

The EURUSD is breaking below its 200-hour moving average at 1.17367 (green line on the chart below), a move that tilts the short-term bias more to the downside. Earlier today, the pair also moved below the 100-hour moving average, currently at 1.17577 (blue line), signaling an initial shift away from the bullish bias that had

In very close contact with Japan’s ministry of finance We both believe forex volatility is undesirable Japan economic fundamentals are very strong and resilient That will be reflected in the exchange rate Have great confidence in BOJ governor Ueda in guiding monetary policy Made no request to prime minister Takaichi regarding monetary policy Discussed Trump’s

FUNDAMENTAL OVERVIEW USD: The US dollar regained some ground at the start of the week as both Trump and Iran rejected the respective war-ending proposals calling them unacceptable and leaving the two sides miles apart on any potential agreement. Moreover, there are some reports pointing to a possible restart of the war, which keeps the

The weekly National Employment Report from ADP showed a gain of 33K vs 39.25K last week. The figures have been between 30K and 40K over the last 5 data weeks showing solid job market. Three times a month, Main Street Macro releases the NER Pulse, an estimate of the week-over-week change in employment based on

There are just a couple of expiries to take note of on the day, as highlighted in bold below. They are for EUR/USD at the 1.1745-50 levels. These don’t tie too much to any technical significance but they do sit in between key near-term technical levels. The 100 and 200-hour moving averages rest at 1.1758

India’s CPI rises to 3.48% in April, driven by accelerating food inflation Intel stock analysis today: After a 510% surge, is INTC starting to show topping risk? US April NFIB small business optimism index 95.9 vs 96.1 expected Germany May ZEW survey current conditions -77.8 vs -77.8 expected USD/JPY rebounds into a key resistance as

Trump is more seriously weighing a return to major combat operations against Iran, frustrated by the Hormuz closure and stalled nuclear talks, with his national security team reviewing options, CNN reported. Summary: Trump has grown increasingly frustrated with the pace and substance of Iran negotiations and is more seriously considering resuming major combat operations than

Bessent comments on Twitter/X: “In my meeting with Minister @satsukikatayama , I was pleased to reaffirm the strong economic partnership between the United States and Japan. The level of communication and coordination between our teams in addressing undesirable, excess volatility in currency markets continues to be constant and robust. I congratulated the Minister on Japan’s

Goldman Sachs has pushed its Federal Reserve rate cut forecast back to December 2026, citing sticky inflation near 3% and a resilient jobs market, with its terminal rate view held at 3% to 3.25%. Summary: Goldman Sachs shifted its forecast for the next Fed rate cut to December 2026, pushed back one quarter from its

Alphabet is planning its first yen-denominated bond sale across up to eight maturities, expected to total several hundred billion yen, as part of a broader push to fund $190 billion in AI capital spending this year. Summary: Alphabet is planning its first yen-denominated bond sale in a multi-tranche offering spanning maturities of three, five, seven,

The NZDUSD moved lower during the Asian-Pacific session in sympathy with the broader US dollar strength. However, each dip toward the rising 100-hour moving average attracted willing buyers, with the pair bouncing on several separate tests of that key support level. The inability to break below the 100-hour moving average helped give buyers the green

The remarkable thing about copper in 2026 isn’t where it’s trading—it’s where it isn’t. With the Strait of Hormuz still a battleground, oil dancing around levels that would normally crush industrial metals, and global growth forecasts being marked down by the week, copper is holding $6.45/lb on Comex and refusing to break. That’s a stone’s

Chicago Fed Pres. Goolsbee is speaking and says: We have an inflation problem in this country CPI data was worse than expected Worst part of inflation is the services inflation. Since March 2021, US CPI inflation has remained well above the Fed’s 2% target, reaching a peak of 9.1% before easing to a low near

The CPI showed a higher than expected rise of 0.4% for core inflation versus 0.3% expected. The headline number was up 0.6% as expected. The YoY for core was higher-than-expected at 2.8% versus 2.7%. The headline came in at 3.8%. The CPI has been above 2% since March 2021. That is a lot of compounded

Tech stocks struggle: Utilities and consumer defensive sectors rise 📉 Semiconductor Sector: Challenges Persist The semiconductor sector is facing notable pressure today, with major companies like Micron Technology (MU) experiencing a significant decline of 6.07%. Intel (INTC) follows closely, falling by 7.05%. These declines contribute to a broader pullback in the technology sector, amidst concerns

Prior +2.7% HICP +2.9% vs +2.9% y/y prelim Prior +2.8% Core CPI +2.3% y/y Prior +2.5% This article was written by Justin Low at investinglive.com.

Prior 95.8 Of the 10 Optimism Index components, seven increased and three decreased. Earnings trends improved, but were offset by a deterioration in expected business conditions. Bill Dunkelberg, Chief Economist at NFIB said: “Inflationary pressures continue to be a challenge for Main Street. While small business optimism is currently fragile, the benefits of the Working

Major US stock indices closed higher on the day, with the Russell 2000 leading the charge with a modest gain of 0.33%. Both the Dow and the S&P rose by 0.19%, while the NASDAQ index increased by 0.10%. The stock market winners and losers showed a sharply bifurcated tone today, with investors aggressively rewarding select

What are investment banks expecting in US April inflation data? (It ain’t pretty) Alphabet plans first yen bond sale to fund $190 billion AI spending push Recap – Japan and US reaffirm currency cooperation after Bessent’s Tokyo talks Australian business confidence remains deeply pessimistic, -24 in April (prior -29) PBOC sets USD/ CNY central rate

Prior -73.7 Economic sentiment -10.2 vs -19.8 expected Prior -17.2 The headline reading shows that the read on business conditions are seen worsening further, with it being the worst since December last year. The fallout from the US-Iran conflict has turned around the optimistic rebound in sentiment since the turn of the year. That as

As the North American session gets underway, the US dollar is trading higher against the major currency pairs. In the video, I take a technical look at the roadmap for the three major pairs — EURUSD, USDJPY, and GBPUSD — as traders position ahead of the key US CPI report at 8:30 AM ET. The

CPI Y/Y 3.48% vs 3.80% expected Prior 3.40% Full report here India’s annual inflation rate climbed to 3.48% in April, a slight uptick from the 3.40% recorded in March. The headline figure remains within the Reserve Bank of India’s comfort zone of 2% to 6%, and below the medium-term target of 4%. The rise was

The ranges of estimates are important in terms of market reaction because when the actual data deviates from the expectations, it creates a surprise effect. Another important input in market’s reaction is the distribution of forecasts. In fact, although we can have a range of estimates, most forecasts might be clustered on the upper bound

Intel stock has been one of the market’s standout momentum stories, with the latest performance snapshot showing gains of roughly 110% over one month, 156% over three months, 240% over six months, 243% year to date, and 510% over one year. But after that extraordinary advance, the latest structure is flashing one of the first

The PBOC allows the yuan to fluctuate within a +/- 2% range, around this reference rate. Injects 0.5bn yuan via 7-day reverse repos in open market operates today. Unchanged rate of 1.4%. — Bloomberg is reporting: Global central banks’ use of the People’s Bank of China’s swap lines reached a two‑year high in the first

UAE carried out covert strikes on Iran as Gulf war escalated, WSJ report says US stocks close marginally higher. Copper refuses to break despite the Iran war Crude oil futures settle at $98.07 Iran is ready to dilute highly enriched uranium to levels of 3.7% and 20% U.S. Treasury auctions off $58 billion of three-year

Australian business confidence edged up to -24 in April from -29 in March but remained deeply negative, as surging energy costs squeezed margins and conditions fell to their lowest since 2020, NAB data showed. Summary: NAB’s business confidence index improved marginally to -24 in April from -29 in March, remaining deeply negative after March’s second-largest

The Trump administration will loan 53.3 million barrels from the US Strategic Petroleum Reserve to nine companies, part of a broader IEA-coordinated release of around 400 million barrels to cool war-driven oil prices. Summary: The Trump administration announced a loan of 53.3 million barrels from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve to nine companies, including Exxon Mobil,

Incoming Fed Chair Warsh is going to be facing well above target inflation. Wall Street Journal Fed watcher Nick Timiraos reports on expectations: This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

JPMorgan warns global oil supply disruptions of 13.7 million bpd in April could push Brent to $150 and lift US inflation to 4%, with the Fed on hold well into 2027. Summary: Global oil supply disruptions reached 13.7 million barrels per day in April, equal to roughly 14% of total world demand, with inventories drawing

Japan’s Finance Minister Katayama said she held a two-hour meeting with US Treasury Secretary Bessent covering forex markets, financial cooperation, critical minerals and AI supply chains. Summary: Japanese Finance Minister Satsuki Katayama confirmed she met with US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent for two hours on Monday evening The discussions covered financial market conditions, with foreign

Our mandate requires us to act if inflation expectations de-anchor Data will decide the ECB’s decision in June Baseline included two rate hikes The ECB has already signalled that a rate hike in June is coming unless the war ends and oil prices fall significantly before then, so I’m not sure why he places weight

The Bank of Japan held rates at its April meeting but warned upside inflation risks are rising as crude oil prices surge, with several members flagging possible hikes as soon as the next meeting. Summary: The Bank of Japan kept its policy interest rate unchanged at its April 27-28 meeting, citing the need for a

Japan March household spending data for March is poor. Fell 2.9% y/y expected -1.5%, prior -1.8% For the m/m the fall was 1.3% expected +0.6%, prior -1.5% This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

HSBC raised its year-end 2026 S&P 500 target to 7,650 from 7,500, lifting EPS growth forecasts by 8% on stronger Q1 results, while warning the rally remains dangerously narrow. Summary: HSBC Global Investment Research raised its year-end 2026 S&P 500 target to 7,650 from 7,500 on 11 May The revision was accompanied by an 8%

The People’s Bank of China is due to set the daily USD/CNY reference rate at around 0115 GMT (2115 US Eastern time), a fixing that remains one of the most closely watched signals in Asian foreign exchange markets. China operates a managed floating exchange rate system, under which the renminbi (yuan) is allowed to trade

UK consumer spending fell 0.1% in April, the first annual decline since late 2024, as Iran war fears drove households toward savings and away from big-ticket and travel spending, Barclays and BRC data showed. Summary: Barclays credit and debit card spending fell 0.1% year-on-year in April, reversing a 0.9% gain in March, the first decline

US Treasury Secretary Bessent arrives in Tokyo pressing Japan to favour BOJ rate hikes over yen intervention, as large-scale currency support operations raise concern over spillover into US Treasury markets. Summary: Bessent arrived in Tokyo on Monday for meetings with Finance Minister Katayama and Prime Minister Takaichi on Tuesday, his third visit to Japan in

Via a Wall Street Journal reporter, news that Trump held off on signing a planned suspension of beef tariff-rate quotas, the White House confirmed, offering no explanation. The delay followed pushback from domestic ranchers and Republican lawmakers. The administration said it is finalising potential executive actions on beef imports. This article was written by Eamonn

Japan and the US reaffirmed close coordination on currency markets, including intervention, after Finance Minister Katayama met Bessent in Tokyo, as Japan is suspected to have spent $63.5 billion defending the yen. Summary: Japanese Finance Minister Katayama said Japan and the US reaffirmed close cooperation on exchange rate moves, including currency intervention, following her meeting

The Bank of Japan will release its ‘Summary’ of the April meeting today. This was an ‘on hold’ meeting, but was eventful. From the day: The Bank of Japan left its short-term policy rate unchanged at 0.75%, as widely expected, but delivered a significantly more hawkish inflation outlook alongside the decision, sharply revising up its

Kevin Warsh, Trump’s nominee for Federal Reserve chair, cleared a key Senate procedural vote on Monday, moving him toward confirmation as early as Tuesday for a 14-year term as Fed governor. A separate vote on his four-year term as Fed chair is expected as soon as Wednesday, ahead of Jerome Powell’s departure on Friday. This

The UAE secretly carried out military strikes on Iran, including hitting a refinery on Lavan Island in April, as part of the broader Gulf conflict, the Wall Street Journal (gated) reported. Summary: The UAE conducted covert military strikes on Iran, including an attack on a refinery on Lavan Island in the Persian Gulf in early

The AUDUSD initially dipped during the Asia-Pacific session, but buyers stepped in against a key swing area between 0.7221 and 0.7227. That zone had acted as a ceiling from mid-April through early May before the pair finally broke higher. Since then, the price has traded back and forth around the area, with the level alternating

The price of crude oil futures settled at $98.07, up $2.65 or 2.78% on the day. Looking at the hourly chart, the low price today reached $96.13, briefly pushing below the rising 100-hour moving average, currently at $96.96 (blue line on the chart below). However, sellers were unable to sustain momentum below that key support

FUNDAMENTAL OVERVIEW Gold rebounded in the final part of last week on hopes that Iran would accept the US war-ending proposal after Axios reported the two parties were getting close to a one-page memo and that US officials were expecting Iran’s response to several key points in the following 48 hours. That was preceded by

The GBPUSD initially moved lower during the Asia-Pacific session following the election results, as traders reacted to the uncertainty surrounding the outcome. However, that same uncertainty also fueled speculation that potential policy changes could ultimately prove supportive for the economy, helping buyers regain confidence as the session progressed. Technically, buyers continued to lean against the

Iran is ready to dilute highly enriched uranium to levels of 3.7% and 20%, according to Al Jazeera citing a source. Washington refused to transfer the highly enriched uranium to Russia and instead suggested a third country receive it. Iran refused to transfer uranium outside its territory and said it is prepared to dilute it

Trump is speaking and says: Iran war will be over soon We have wiped out their Navy. Iran is out of weapons, leadership, Army and Navy Will meet with a large group of Generals about Iran Wants to bring oil prices down. Says they have a plan on Iran. Iran Blockade was part of “military

U.S. Treasury auctions of $58 billion of 3-year notes at a high yield of 3.965%. WI level at the time of the auction 3.959% Tail 0.6 basis points versus a six month average of -0.4 basis points. Bid to cover 2.54X versus 2.67X six month average Dealers 16.9% versus six month average of 12.7%. Directds

I think the inflation risk is lower this time around I think that we were late to act in 2021 and 2022 One reason was that we had too much of an academic discussion about the drivers of inflation Academic discussions are good at university and in academic fora but in central banking, you have

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President Trump is meeting with his national security team Monday to discuss the path forward in the Iran war, including the possibility of resuming military action after negotiations stalled on Sunday, according to Axios citing three U.S. officials. U.S. officials said Trump still wants a deal to end the conflict, but Iran’s rejection of key

FUNDAMENTAL OVERVIEW USD: The US dollar regained some ground as both Trump and Iran rejected the respective war-ending proposals calling them unacceptable and leaving the two sides miles apart on any potential agreement. Moreover, Israeli PM Netanyahu confirmed that the removal of Iranian nuclear material remains an active war priority, and separate reports indicated that

The price of Meta Platforms gapped sharply lower following its April 29 earnings release, as investors reacted negatively to the company’s increased capital spending plans — a development that triggered aggressive selling pressure. On the day of the earnings reaction, the stock fell decisively below its 100-hour moving average, 100-day moving average, and 200-hour moving

📉 Tech Sector Stumbles Today’s trading session saw prominent losses within the tech sector. Notably, Microsoft (MSFT) took a hit, sliding down by 1.11%, while Google (GOOGL) faced a significant decline of 2.01%. The downturn in these tech giants reflects broader market sentiment, with anxiety over high valuations and regulatory scrutiny taking center stage. 🔬

Baghaei says that Iran’s proposal was “not excessive” and that whatever the situation is right now, it is all due to the fact that Washington continues to have “unreasonable demands” instead. He adds that Tehran is only seeking to secure its rights and have given “generous and responsible suggestions” to the US in trying to

The USDCHF continues to lean against its 100-hour moving average as a key resistance barometer. Corrective rallies last week stalled against that moving average on Tuesday, Wednesday, Thursday, and Friday — and today’s rally attempt once again failed near the same level. If buyers are to take back more control, the pair needs to break

The latest Iran-related headlines suggest that tensions in the Middle East remain elevated, but there are also ongoing diplomatic efforts to prevent a broader escalation. Key developments: Trump is reportedly considering restarting “Project Freedom” — the US-led naval effort aimed at reopening and securing commercial shipping routes through the Strait of Hormuz after Iran restricted

Earlier: Iran said to table broad demands covering sanctions, war and security The prez says no: Trump says Iran’s proposals are “TOTALLY UNACCEPTABLE” The USD is a touch higher in really early trade. Weekend oil trade is a touch higher. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

The US existing home sales for April 2026 shows: Prior month 3.98M revised to 4.01M Existing home sales for April 4.02M vs 4.05M estimate Existing home sales percentage change 0.2% the Details from the national Association of realtors 4.4-month supply: Unsold housing inventory, up from 4.2 months in March and 4.3 months a year ago.

Reuters is noting that the Indian central bank is likely intervening in the FX market to limit the rupee’s drop today, citing three traders on the matter. USD/INR continues to scale higher to start the week, as a renewed jump in oil prices is weighing heavily on the rupee amid a worsening economic outlook for

Economic recovery is now at risk Inflation risks have heightened due to the Middle East conflict Risk of a stragflationary trend cannot be ruled out even if economy, labour market remain resilient The duration of the Middle East conflict will be the decisive factor It was a justifiable decision to wait before raising interest rates

Iranian state media: US proposal amounted to Iran surrendering to Trump’s excessive demands Iran’s proposal stressed the need for the United States to pay compensation for war damages and emphasized Iran’s sovereignty over the Strait of Hormuz You can catch up here if needed: Iran demand Trump says no Iran rejects Trump This article was

FUNDAMENTAL OVERVIEW Oil prices came under some renewed pressure in the final part of last week on hopes that Iran would accept the US war-ending proposal after Axios reported the two parties were getting close to a one-page memo and that US officials were expecting Iran’s response to several key points in the following 48

Lyrie.ai (https://lyrie.ai/), the autonomous cybersecurity platform developed by OTT Cybersecurity LLC, today announced the completion of a $2 million pre-seed funding round and the company’s official exit from stealth. The raise will support continued platform development, security research team expansion, and the operationalization of the Agent Trust Protocol across Lyrie’s platform and partner ecosystem. The

The USD is trading higher against the major currency pairs today, but both the EURUSD and GBPUSD have rebounded from earlier session lows, allowing buyers — or dollar sellers — to regain some short-term control. In the EURUSD, the pair gapped lower during the Asian-Pacific session, but downside momentum began to stall as the price

Nasdaq futures are implying a down -46 points start for the US stocks. The S&P is targeting down -23 points and the Dow is looking to be down -20 modest points. Despite the declines some consistant gainers continue their gains in pre-market trading. Moderna (MRNA) — +7.82% Shares spiked after the biotech company announced it

China’s April PPI jumped 2.8% year-on-year, a 45-month high and well above forecasts, while CPI rose 1.2%, as Iran war energy costs end a 41-month deflationary streak. Summary: China’s producer price index rose 2.8% year-on-year in April, the highest reading since July 2022 and well above Reuters poll forecasts of 1.6%, ending a 41-month consecutive

The People’s Bank of China is due to set the daily USD/CNY reference rate at around 0115 GMT (2115 US Eastern time), a fixing that remains one of the most closely watched signals in Asian foreign exchange markets. China operates a managed floating exchange rate system, under which the renminbi (yuan) is allowed to trade

Iran has dismissed Trump’s rejection of its nuclear proposals as irrelevant, with a source telling Tasnim that negotiators draft plans for Iranian interests alone and that Trump’s dissatisfaction is “naturally better.” Earlier: Iran said to table broad demands covering sanctions, war and security in U.S. talks Trump says Iran’s proposals are “TOTALLY UNACCEPTABLE” Monday open

After the record high close on Friday, we’re not seeing any threatening drop to US stocks ahead of the open later. And that is despite a setback to US-Iran developments, with Trump shooting down Tehran’s latest peace proposal. From Iran’s point of view, they are saying that the US demands are too much and that

There are a few expiries to take note of on the day, as highlighted in bold below. The first ones are for EUR/USD at the 1.1725-50 levels. They don’t tie much to any technical significance but as the dollar keeps firmer on the day, the expiries could help to hold a bit of a range

FUNDAMENTAL OVERVIEW USD: The US dollar regained some ground as both Trump and Iran rejected the respective war-ending proposals calling them unacceptable and leaving the two sides miles apart on any potential agreement. Moreover, Israeli PM Netanyahu confirmed that the removal of Iranian nuclear material remains an active war priority, and separate reports indicated that

Headlines: Iran foreign ministry spokesperson says proposal to the US was “not excessive” US futures subdued but not under any pressure despite US-Iran setback Oil prices rebound into triple digit levels amid lack of US-Iran breakthrough Heads up: Trump-Xi summit due for later this week ECB policymaker de Guindos says comparison to energy price shock

China’s car sales fell 21.6% in April, a seventh straight monthly decline, as high oil prices hurt domestic demand while EV and hybrid exports surged 111.8% on Iran war fuel costs. Summary: China’s passenger car sales dropped 21.6% year-on-year to 1.4 million vehicles in April, a seventh consecutive monthly decline, according to the China Passenger

It’s a relatively light week ahead, as is typically the case following the NFP release, with the first relevant event being the U.S. existing home sales release on Monday. Tuesday will bring the Bank of Japan’s summary of opinions, as well as the U.S. inflation data. The Fed Chair nomination vote is also expected in

The UK and France will co-chair a 40-nation defence ministers’ meeting Tuesday on plans to restore Hormuz shipping, hours after Iran warned any foreign warships would face a decisive response. Summary: The UK and France will on Tuesday co-chair a virtual meeting of more than 40 nations to advance military plans for a multinational mission

Two VLCCs carrying a combined 4 million barrels of Gulf crude exited the Strait of Hormuz last week with transponders switched off to avoid Iranian attack, Kpler data showed. Summary: The VLCC Basrah Energy loaded 2 million barrels of Upper Zakum crude at ADNOC’s Zirku terminal on May 1 and exited the Strait of Hormuz

China car sales fall for seventh month as EV exports surge on Iran fuel shock China’s April inflation data beats across board as energy costs reshape price landscape Japan’s energy subsidies and yen defence are on a collision course ICYMI – Netanyahu says Iran war not over and refuses to rule out seizing nuclear material

It’s worth waiting to see how the US-Iran war develops before deciding whether to hike interest rates Inflation risks are skewed entirely to the upside Sluggish economy and loose labour market should limit second-round effects from energy shock BoE’s Greene has been one of the most hawkish members in the MPC for a while as

Netanyahu told CBS the Iran war is not over and declined to rule out seizing nuclear material, while separate reports claim Trump told him ‘I want to go in’ regarding Iranian nuclear sites. Summary: Netanyahu told CBS’s 60 Minutes the war on Iran is not over, with enrichment sites, missile capacity and proxy networks listed

While the US-Iran conflict is still the main event for markets, this week will feature a bit of a sideshow and distraction. That as US president Trump is to make a trip to China from 13 to 15 May, at the invitation of China president Xi Jinping. The trip will mark the first visit to

Japan’s petrol subsidies are draining funds at 300bn yen a month while yen intervention nears IMF limits, putting Tokyo’s fiscal and currency strategy on a collision course, Reuters Breakingviews argues. Summary: A Reuters column by Hudson Lockett argues that Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi faces a fundamental contradiction between her energy subsidy programme and her

China’s April exports jumped 14.1% year-on-year to $359.4bn, smashing forecasts of 7.9%, while imports surged 25.3% to a record $274.6bn, lifting the trade surplus to $84.8bn. Summary: China’s April trade surplus came in at $84.82 billion, up sharply from $51.13 billion in March and above market expectations of $83.3 billion, according to customs data Exports

Iran is said to have proposed a text demanding U.S. sanctions relief, an end to its naval blockade, war-end guarantees and removal of OFAC oil sanctions within 30 days, per Tasnim citing an “informed source”. Summary: Iran’s proposed negotiating text is said to underline the necessity of lifting U.S. sanctions as a condition of any

EUR down, AUD down, NZD down as examples. Yen hanging in there. Earlier: Iran state media says Iran wants sovereignty over the Strait of Hormuz Iran demand Trump says no Iran rejects Trump This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

Oil is higher. Up more than 3%. ES and NQ are a touch lower. Barely off at all. Globex open now. Catch up on the news from here if you need: Futures aren’t open yet, but early FX is pointing to risk off gap This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

Earlier: Iran said to table broad demands covering sanctions, war and security in U.S. talks The usual process is tantrum first, taco later This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

Sat: Chinese Trade Mon: Chinese Inflation (Apr), Norwegian Inflation (Apr) Tue: BoJ SOO (Apr), IEA STEO (May), EU Informal Meeting of Energy Ministers (May 12-13), Japanese Household Spending (Mar), German HICP Final (Apr), Italian Industrial Production (Mar), German ZEW (May), US Inflation (Apr) Wed: BoC Minutes (Apr), EIA OMR (May), OPEC MOMR (May), Riksbank Minutes

Bitcoin Price Forecast: BTC Bulls Repair the 80K Zone, But 82.8K Remains the Key Breakout Gate Last updated: May 9, 2026 Market bias: Mildly bullish repair, not confirmed bullish expansion Bitcoin is trading with a constructive short-term bias after buyers defended the repaired value area near 80,000. The current BTC price forecast improves while price

US April non-farm payrolls +115K vs +62K expected Canada employment change -17.7K vs 15.0K estimate. Unemployment rate 6.9% vs 6.7% expected US and Iran could resume talks next week — report ECB’s Nagel: ECB will do whatever necessary to him he energy price surge Iran: From now on actions of the US maritime blockade will

The WSJ is out with the latest leak on US-Iran negotiations: Talks could resume as early as next week Iran remains against transferring nuclear material Iran and the US working with mediators to formulate a 14-point MOU that would set the parameters for a month of talks to end the war The US would ‘wind

On the day: S&P 500 +0.85% Nasdaq Comp +1.7% DJIA flat Russell 2000 +0.75% Toronto TSX Comp +0.6% On the week: S&P 500 +2.3% Nasdaq Comp +4.5% DJIA +0.2% Russell 2000 +1.7% Toronto TSX Comp +0.5% The S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite hit fresh all-time highs today. A surprisingly strong U.S. jobs report—adding 115,000 jobs

Soon after the better-than-expected US jobs report in the worse than expected Canadian jobs report, I posted the following brief commentary and chart: The key resistance zone overhead was defined by the 38.2% retracement level, the swing area between 1.37089 and 1.37149, and the 100-day moving average near 1.3720. The price pushed higher into that

There’s not too much happening on the session as markets are largely waiting on fresh leads from the US-Iran conflict. So far, there’s nothing new as we continue to wait on the supposed framework deal to at least free up the Strait of Hormuz. It still remains to be seen how such an agreement will

FUNDAMENTAL OVERVIEW USD: The US dollar regained some ground yesterday following renewed tensions in the Strait of Hormuz. In fact, The US and Iran exchanged fire in the most serious test of their month-long ceasefire, with Iranian forces attacking three US Navy destroyers in the Strait of Hormuz using missiles, drones and small boats, and

The AUDUSD fell sharply yesterday, breaking back below a key ceiling/floor zone between 0.7221 and 0.7227. That bearish break helped push the pair down toward the next swing area support between 0.7193 and 0.7200. In early Asian-Pacific trading, buyers leaned against that support zone for several hours, helping stabilize the price before the pair rotated

Prior was +178K (revised to +185K) Two-month net revision -16K February was -133K (revised to -156K). January was +160K Unemployment rate 4.3% vs 4.3% expected Prior unemployment rate 4.3% Unrounded unemployment 4.337% vs 4.256% prior Participation rate 61.8% vs 61.9% prior U6 underemployment rate 8.2% vs 8.0% prior Average hourly earnings +0.2% m/m vs +0.3%

Japan’s services PMI fell to 51.0 in April from 53.4, an 11-month low, as Middle East war costs drove input inflation to a 42-month high and business confidence hit its lowest since the pandemic. Summary: The S&P Global Japan Services PMI fell to 51.0 in April from 53.4 in March, marking the softest rate of

Overall imports increased by 5.1% on the month while exports were only seen up 0.5% on the month. And when compared to the same month a year ago, imports were markedly higher by 7.2% with exports only up by 1.9% relative to March 2025. While Destatis does not provide a detailed breakdown, it is safe

Crude oil is settling at $94.81, down $0.27 or -0.28% on the day, after another volatile trading session driven by geopolitical headlines and shifting risk sentiment. Technically, the market is closing just below a key technical level — the 50% midpoint of the rally from the April 17 low — which comes in at $94.95.

It’s jobs day in the US and while markets are still fixated on US-Iran developments, the non-farm payrolls data will be a key risk event to look out for in wrapping up the week. The consensus is for a +62k headline print with the unemployment rate holding at 4.3%. That will continue to keep things

ECBs Nagel; Will do whatever is needed to contain energy price jumps ECB is highly alert to increasing inflation risks. ECB will do whatever necessary to curb energy price surge. This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com.

Fed policy is holding back the jobs market Thinks that the Fed should provide less forward guidance Less forward guidance will make policy options more flexible Fed should look through energy price shock Neither the jobs market nor inflation expectations point to higher inflation The comments are not surprising as Miran was planted at the

The USD moved briefly higher following the better-than-expected U.S. jobs report, but the broader market reaction has since turned more risk-positive than dollar-supportive. Nonfarm payrolls rose by 115K versus expectations of 62K, while the unemployment rate held steady at 4.3% as expected. Average hourly earnings increased 0.2% month-over-month and 3.6% year-over-year — a mixed outcome

ECBs Legarde is speaking and says: climbing energy costs will push up input prices. Price increases may then be passed to consumer. We should be well-placed to react, when needed Current rates: The ECB at their last meeting last week held rates unchanged, with the main refinancing rate at 2.15% and the deposit facility at

More from Cleveland Fed Pres. Hammack: I need to keep an open mind about next policy move given the uncertainty I hear concerns among businesses that an inflationary mindset is starting to become entrenched in people’s minds This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com.

Japan intervened repeatedly in forex markets during May holidays, source says UAE says it is responding again to a missile threat Goldman says Trump tariff ruling near-term impact limited as appeal looms PBOC sets USD/ CNY reference rate for today at 6.8502 (vs. estimate at 6.8138) Trump gives EU until July 4 to implement Turnberry

Prior month 49.8 Sentiment index 48.2 versus 49.5 estimate Current conditions 47.8 versus 52.0 estimate expectations index 48.5 versus 48.1 estimate 1-year inflation expectations 4.5% versus 4.7% last month. 5-year inflation expectations 3.4% versus 3.5% last month The numbers are at multi-decade lows and reflective of the economic issues caused by the Iran/US war. From

It was always going to be a tough one. Japan’s ministry of finance (MOF) know very well that they are going up against a striking fundamental backdrop that dictates the yen to be lower. With the US-Iran war still ongoing, there is no change to the fact that all the factors in play are pointing

The US jobs report is expected to show a meaningful slowdown in hiring momentum, but not enough deterioration to immediately force the Fed into an easing cycle. Consensus forecasts call for headline nonfarm payrolls to rise by 62K, down sharply from 178K last month, while private payrolls are expected at 75K versus 186K previously. The

Goldman Sachs expects the Trump administration to appeal the CIT’s tariff ruling before May 12 and a higher court to stay it, leaving the 10% duties likely intact until their July 24 expiry. Summary: Goldman Sachs expects the Trump administration to appeal the Court of International Trade’s ruling against the 10% Section 122 tariffs before

Technology sector climbs as healthcare stumbles Today’s stock market is witnessing a noteworthy divergence as tech giants lead a rally, while healthcare stocks slump. A closer look at the heatmap reveals dynamic shifts across various sectors, providing insightful takeaways for investors seeking to navigate these changes. 📈 Tech sector resurgence: Leading the charge The technology

Prior month 14.1K Employment change -17.7K vs 15.0 estimate Unemployment rate 6.9% vs 6.7% estimate Full time employment -46.7K vs -1.1K last month Part-time employment 29.0K vs 15.2K last month Participation rate 65.0% vs 64.9% last month. Details from Statistics Canada: Employment changed little across major age groups in April. The unemployment rate for youth

FUNDAMENTAL OVERVIEW Oil prices remain mostly rangebound, but there’s been more bearish pressure since Wednesday following several positive news on the US-Iran front. In fact, oil prices sold off after Trump paused Project Freedom so that the US could work to finalise a deal with Iran. The pause was of course interpreted as another step

The People’s Bank of China is due to set the daily USD/CNY reference rate at around 0115 GMT (2115 US Eastern time), a fixing that remains one of the most closely watched signals in Asian foreign exchange markets. China operates a managed floating exchange rate system, under which the renminbi (yuan) is allowed to trade

Iran fired missiles, drones and small boats at three US Navy destroyers in the Strait of Hormuz; no US assets were hit; Centcom struck Iranian launch sites, command posts and surveillance nodes in response. Summary: US Central Command confirmed Iranian forces launched missiles, drones and small boat attacks against USS Truxtun, USS Rafael Peralta and

Morgan Stanley targets $5,200 gold this year, driven by ETF buying, China accumulation and 2027 Fed cuts, but warns the Iran conflict has exposed gold as a rates trade, not a safe haven. Summary: Morgan Stanley has set a gold price target of $5,200 per ounce for later this year, driven by resumed central bank

Two reports just crossed on Iran: 1) A Fox News reporter says the US military carried out airstrikes today, hitting several empty tankers trying to break the US blockade of Iran. “These were Very Large Crude Carriers (VLCC) …. massive, empty ships trying to make it back to Iran … attempted to run the blockde…”

Headlines: The constant push for diplomatic resolution continues to cap the upside in oil prices Japanese yen slowly erases intervention-driven gains as macro backdrop remains negative How have interest rate expectations changed after this week’s events? What is the distribution of forecasts for the US NFP? What are the analyst calls ahead of the US

A US trade court struck down Trump’s 10% global tariffs 2-1, ruling the duties were not justified under a 1970s trade law; the White House had cited a $1.2 trillion goods trade deficit as grounds. Summary: The US Court of International Trade ruled 2-1 against President Trump’s 10% global tariffs, finding they were not justified

Japan’s real wages rose 1.0% in March, a third straight monthly gain; total cash earnings rose 2.7% against a 3.2% consensus and prior; BOJ rate decision due June 15-16. Summary: Japan’s inflation-adjusted real wages rose 1.0% year on year in March, a third consecutive month of gains, according to government data released Friday Total cash

The PBOC allows the yuan to fluctuate within a +/- 2% range, around this reference rate. Injects 500mn yuan via 7-day reverse repos in open market operates today. Unchanged rate of 1.4%. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

There is arguably just one to take note of on the day, as highlighted in bold below. That being for EUR/USD at the 1.1750 level. The expiries don’t tie to any technical significance, so I would expect the impact to be relatively muted; all else being equal. Trading sentiment remains largely tied to the broader

The good vibes are continuing to deteriorate. Reports out of the Middle East are that Iran attacked US missile destroyers after the US attacked Iranian tankers. Additionally, Iranian TV is reporting anti aircraft activity in Northwest Tehran, but also explosions due to air defense system tests. Fog of war! This article was written by Eamonn

Cyprus’s leading real estate event, REALTYon 2026, officially opened yesterday at the City of Dreams Mediterranean, welcoming thousands of visitors and bringing together some of the biggest names in the property industry under one roof. Bringing together more than 80 exhibitors, sponsors, and leading real estate brands — including Limassol Greens, Imperio, Green Properties, bbf,

Iran and the US exchanged missiles and more: Reports filtering in that Iran launched missiles at US Navy ships US strikes Bandar Abbas and Qeshm as Gulf tensions surge past ceasefire US CENTCOM says US destroyers repelled Iranian attack in Strait of Hormuz Separate reports out of Israel and Iran says hostilities have ceased. For

The UAE says its air defences are engaging at present with missiles and drone threats. Earlier: Iran launched missiles at US Navy ships US destroyers repelled Iranian attack in Strait of Hormuz This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

Paul Tudor Jones says the AI bull market has one to two years left, likens the moment to 1999, and warns the eventual correction could be breathtaking; he has added to AI stock positions. Info via CNBC. Summary: Paul Tudor Jones said the AI-driven bull market still has one to two years to run and

Gold Analysis Today: Mild Bullish Bias, but Bulls Still Need Confirmation Above $4,775 Gold futures are showing a mildly bullish recovery today, with the latest structure pointing to higher value acceptance after the May 4 low. The current gold analysis score is +3.0 / +10, which means the market has improved, but the setup is

Industrial production -0.7% vs +0.5% m/m expected Prior -0.3%; revised to -0.5% That’s a big miss on factory output on the month, even with a negative revision to the February numbers. The decline in March compared to the previous month is attributable to production decreases in energy generation (-4.0%) and mechanical engineering (-2.7%) for the

House prices -0.1% vs -0.1% m/m expected Prior -0.5% Average property price £299,313 Prior £299,609 The more cautious undertone stems from the relative uncertainty from the Middle East conflict but all else being equal, the UK housing market continues to show much resilience so far this year. Halifax notes that: “After a strong start to

Deutsche Bank warns markets are pricing the Iran conflict inconsistently across equities, rates and credit, with long-run inflation faith looking increasingly difficult to sustain. Summary: Deutsche Bank notes a clear repricing across markets since the Iran conflict began, but identifies significant inconsistencies across asset classes and regions, according to the bank’s research note US Treasury

Japan intervened in forex markets during early May holidays in addition to April 30 operations; BOJ data suggests total spending of around $67 billion across both periods to support the yen. Info via Reuters. Summary: Japan intervened in the foreign exchange market during the early May holiday period as well as on April 30, in

A couple of lower tier items due from Japan is about it. Asia markets will likely be contyent to await the US jobs data. Trump has already given us a clue: investingLive Asia-Pacific FX news wrap: Trump has seen the NFP number and he is happy This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

Banxico lowered the Benchmark interest rate to 6.5% from 6.75% as expected. Board members Heath and Borja voted to hold rates steady. Board members Rodriguez, Mejia, and Cuadra voted to cut rates. The board was not unanimous on the rate decision. Benchmark interest rate lowered to 6.50% from 6.75%. Headline inflation is projected to converge

Trump has given the EU until July 4 to implement the Turnberry trade deal or face much higher tariffs; car tariff hikes are on hold after Trump spoke with von der Leyen. Summary: US President Donald Trump has given the European Union until July 4 to implement its side of last year’s Turnberry trade agreement

The major US stock indices are closing lower today. The S&P and NASDAQ indices closed higher two straight days and closed at record levels as well. Although the S&P and NASDAQ indices both made new all-time intraday highs at 7385.02 and 26036.38 respectively, the gains cannot be sustained. Dow industrial average fell -314.04 points or

NY Fed Pres John Williams is speaking (voter) and says: There is a lot of uncertainty in the economy right now Economy perform better last year than many expected. Economy has shown a lot of resilience, amid stable job market. The data support idea of K shaped economy, lower income families under pressure. Interest rates

Trump: Had a great call with the president of European commission Von Der Leyen says that Europe and US are completely united that Iran can never have a nuclear weapon. Agreed to give EU until July 4 to fulffill trade agreements or unfortunately there tariffs would immediately jump to much higher levels Recall, on May

The Wall Street Journal is reporting Saudi Arabia and Kuwait lifted restrictions on U.S. military use of bases and airspace tied to operations around the Strait of Hormuz. The move clears a key obstacle for the U.S. effort to restart escorted commercial shipping operations through the strait. The U.S. had paused the mission, called Project

San Francisco Fed Pres. Mary Daly his is speaking and says: Committed to bring inflation back to Fed’s 2% target. Monetary policy is slightly restrictive, and would put downward pressure on inflation should US war in Iran resolve. Said no indication yet that the energy prices surge is driving medium or longer-term inflation expectations higher.

ECBs Schanabel is speaking and says: My view is that some damage done from Iran war will be hard to reverse There seems to be a disconnect between the stock market and the global situation. Earlier, Schnabel said: Signs of supply chain disruptions are reemerging. Rapidly growing shares of European manufacturing firms are planning to

Both the EURUSD and GBPUSD are giving back earlier gains as broader market sentiment turns more cautious. The EURUSD is still modestly higher on the day by 0.08%, while the GBPUSD has slipped back to unchanged levels after failing to sustain upside momentum. Meanwhile, crude oil has rebounded sharply back above $95 after earlier trading

Al Jazeera is saying a US official told them that reports about preparation to resume Operation Freedom to reopen the Strait of Hormuz are incorrect “Operation Freedom” (sometimes also referred to in reports as “Project Freedom”) is the Trump administration’s military-backed effort to reopen and protect commercial shipping through the Strait of Hormuz after Iran

Sector Overview The US stock market today presents a compelling dichotomy with technology stocks surging, while the energy sector grapples with significant declines. The heatmap reveals that the technology sector is leading the market, buoyed by gains in major players like Microsoft (MSFT), which is up by a noteworthy 2.52%. In the software infrastructure segment,

Trump advisers fear political price of Iran war fuel costs ahead of midterms China loan curbs, yuan surge and holiday spending in focus as Beijing juggles pressures ICYMI – Saudi base ban forced Trump to pause Strait of Hormuz shipping operation Australian March 2026 trade balance -1840mn (expected 4.250mn suprlus) PBOC sets USD/ CNY reference

I preferred to adjust wording that signals cutting bias I still expect rate cuts down the road Rates will likely remain on hold for a longer period The odds of worse inflation scenario have increased Alternative scenario could make the Fed consider a hike Fed’s Collins is not a voter this year, so we haven’t

Bitcoin Futures Analysis Today: BTC Tests Key Support After Failed Breakout Attempt Bitcoin futures are trading at an important decision area today, with BTC MAY26 currently near 81,160 on the 200 Range Volumetric chart. The broader structure is no longer cleanly bullish after price failed to sustain above the upper value area, but bears have

April one-year-ahead expected inflation: 3.6% versus March’s 3.4% April three-year-ahead expected inflation: Unchanged at 3.1% April five-year-ahead expected inflation: Unchanged at 3.0% April year-ahead home price rise expected: 3.0% versus March’s 3.3% April year-ahead gasoline price expectations: Dropped “sharply” Current and future access to credit views: Deteriorated versus March April expectations for higher future unemployment:

Intense communications to gradually reopen the Strait of Hormuz Reaching understandings regarding easing the siege in exchange for the gradual opening of the Strait of Hormuz The coming hours will witness a breakthrough for the situation of the ships stuck in the strait more to come This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at investinglive.com.

Around $1.7 billion in U.S. crude futures changed hands in the hour before an Axios report on a potential U.S.-Iran peace deal sent oil prices lower, with multiple experts calling the activity suspicious, MarketWatch reports. Summary: Roughly 17,300 front-month WTI crude futures contracts valued at more than $1.7 billion changed hands in the hour before

China gold reserves at the end of April 2026: 74.64 million troy ounces In March 2026: 74.38 million troy ounces China gold reserves value at the end of April 2026: $344.17 billion In March 2026: $342.76 billion The reserves quantity shows another month of increase, with this being the 18th straight month of buying by

Given the fallout from the Middle East conflict, this isn’t surprising. We’ve seen a similar episode before during the Russia-Ukraine war, so this will very much follow the same path. As energy prices keep higher, expect that to have a more significant toll on the French trade balance in the months to come. For some

China’s financial regulator has quietly told major banks to suspend new loans to five U.S.-sanctioned Iranian oil refiners, while the yuan surged to its strongest PBOC fixing since March 2023 amid easing Middle East tensions. Summary: China’s National Financial Regulatory Administration verbally instructed the country’s largest lenders to suspend new yuan-denominated loans to five refineries

If there’s one thing that we know about Trump from his first term as president, it is that he really does weigh his achievements based on how the stock market performs. And this time around is no different. The US-Iran war put him in a tough spot in March but since April, it has been

The People’s Bank of China is due to set the daily USD/CNY reference rate at around 0115 GMT (2115 US Eastern time), a fixing that remains one of the most closely watched signals in Asian foreign exchange markets. China operates a managed floating exchange rate system, under which the renminbi (yuan) is allowed to trade

NASDAQ and S&P close at record levels. Dow breaks 50 K but backs off into the close. Fed’s Goolsbee warns Iran war turning into an inflationary shock for U.S. economy Dow reaches 50,000. There have been 4 closes above the 50K level Fed’s Goolsbee: Impact of rising productivity on inflation remains active topic of debate

The ECB is likely to hike rates unless the outlook improves markedly This is the exact same thing he said on Monday, so there’s nothing to see here. The ECB has already signalled that a rate hike in June is coming unless the war ends and oil prices fall significantly before then. The market is

As a reminder, US president Trump is scheduled to meet with China president Xi Jinping next week on 14-15 May. The meeting will take place in Beijing and will mark the first time since a US president has travelled to China since 2017. There will be a lot of things to talk about and we’re

Construction PMI 42.1 Prior 48.0 That’s a rough one as the German construction sector slides deeper into contraction territory amid the fallout from the Middle East conflict. Surging energy prices is translating to higher price pressures and that in turn is weighing on overall activity on the month. The steep fall in total activity at

Chicago Fed’s Goolsbee says the U.S.-Iran war is acting as an inflationary shock, warning prolonged high oil prices risk embedding expectations and would be “extremely problematic” for the central bank. Summary: The U.S.-Iran conflict is increasingly resembling an inflationary shock, with limited impact so far on employment and growth but rising concerns about supply chains

Headlines: Gold rebounds strongly as hope for the end of the war returns. What’s next? US president Trump continues to gas up the stock market, posts Dow snapshot The Bank of Japan is back in the yen market China keeps up with the gold buying spree as reserves climb for a 18th straight month ECB’s

FUNDAMENTAL OVERVIEW Gold rallied strongly yesterday following several positive developments on the US-Iran front. In fact, the bullish momentum got triggered by Trump pausing Project Freedom so that the US could work to finalise a deal with Iran. The pause was of course interpreted as another step towards a deal. Later in the European session,

ECB’s François Villeroy, Governor of the Banque de France, cautioned against premature speculation regarding the timing of future interest rate hikes. Villeroy has been emphasising that the ECB must remain “data-driven, not date-driven”. He recently said that the ECB needs “critical mass of data” before considering rate hikes and added that any tightening would depend

RBNZ Governor Breman: Expect New Zealand house prices to remain flat, increase a “little bit” over time Expect somewhat higher near term inflation Expect somewhat weaker growth but we still expect growth this year This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

Trump advisers are privately worried the Iran war’s fuel cost surge will cost Republicans at November’s midterms, as U.S. airlines face a 30% jump in fuel bills and airfares hit $570 for a domestic round trip, the Wall Street Journal (gated) reports. Summary: Trump administration advisers are privately concerned that surging fuel costs stemming from

Both the S&P 500 and the NASDAQ Composite closed at fresh record highs today, while the Russell 2000 also ended at a new closing peak as investors embraced a stronger risk-on tone. The rally was fueled in part by growing hopes for a potential de-escalation in the Iran conflict. Reports circulated that a proposed one-page

Japan’s suspected JPY5-6 trillion yen intervention may prove its least successful yet as the Iran war leaves authorities at the mercy of unpredictable geopolitical factors, MUFG warns. Summary: Japanese authorities are suspected to have intervened in foreign exchange markets as dollar-yen fell from near 160 to below 157, with market estimates based on Bank of

Axios cites unnamed US officials on the somewhat of a deadline. Trump is scheduled to travel to Beijing for a summit with Chinese President Xi Jinping on May 14–15, 2026. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

Japan’s Mimura yen verbal intervention again – says closely watching FX. Earlier: Bessent to raise weak yen with Japanese officials in Tokyo meetings next week While Mimura’s comments are nothing out of the ordinary, he’s said such things countless times in the past, the bouts of intervention from the BoJ than began late last week

Iran is expected to deliver its response Thursday to a U.S. proposal for ending the war, with Trump citing “very good talks” and Pakistan actively mediating toward a permanent peace agreement. Summary: Iran is expected to hand over its formal reply Thursday to Pakistani mediators regarding a U.S. proposal to end the war, according to

U.S. Treasury Secretary Bessent will visit Japan next week for talks covering the weak yen, rare earths and energy procurement, with individual meetings scheduled with the PM, finance minister and Bank of Japan governor, the Nikkei reports. Summary: U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent is set to travel to Japan next week to discuss the weak

Bank of Canada Governor Tiff Macklem warned that if high oil prices begin feeding into broader inflation, the central bank may need to deliver consecutive increases to its policy rate. Summary: The Bank of Canada held its policy interest rate at 2.25% at last week’s meeting, with Governor Tiff Macklem telling the Senate Standing Committee

Although Australia’s March trade balance is marked as high impact its not likely to move around financial markets too much upon release. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

The USDCAD is extending higher after recovering from earlier weakness at the start of the trading day. As outlined in an earlier post, the pair first moved back above its 100-hour moving average near 1.3600, but buyers have now taken the next important technical step with a break above the 200-hour moving average at 1.3631

The GBPUSD moved higher yesterday, but upside momentum stalled near the lower end of a key swing area resistance zone between 1.3574 and 1.3602. The rally peaked at 1.3577 before sellers leaned against the resistance area and pushed the pair lower into the new trading day, sending the price back toward its 100- and 200-hour

The NASDAQ index continues to lead the rally, surging more than 400 points, or 1.58%, to 25,726 after reaching an intraday high of 25,741.14. The broader market is participating in the move as well, with both the S&P 500 and Dow Jones Industrial Average gaining more than 1% on the day. The Dow is up

The weekly crude oil inventory data is showing Crude oil -2.313M versus estimate of -3.291 million Gasoline -2.504M versus estimate of -2.107 million Distillates -1.294M versus estimate of -2.352 million The private data last night showed larger drawdowns: Crude oil is currently trading at $95. The price was trading at $95.20 just before the report.

The Wall Street Journal is reporting that the Iran and US mediators are hammering out a one-page 14 point memorandum of understanding to end the war. The memorandum would layout a framework for a month-long period of talks. Talks would resume as early as next week in Pakistan. Says that Iran has expressed openness to

Chicago Fed Pres. Goolsbee is speaking and says: Impact of rising productivity on inflation remains active topic of debate. Activities impact on inflation and interest rates could go in either direction. If households anticipate future income, wealth gains from higher productivity, they could produce spending inflation. If people pull forward future expected earnings for spending

US Secretary of State Rubio declared Operation Epic Fury concluded and the Strait of Hormuz ceasefire intact, even as the UAE reported a second day of Iranian missile and drone strikes. Summary: US Secretary of State Marco Rubio declared Operation Epic Fury concluded and characterised ongoing tanker escort operations in the Strait of Hormuz as

The USDCAD moved lower earlier in the day as broad-based dollar selling pressure pushed the pair down, but buyers found support and helped drive the price back toward unchanged levels on the session. In the rebound, the pair climbed back above its 100-hour moving average, which currently comes in at 1.3600 — a key technical

The AUDUSD extended higher after the Reserve Bank of Australia raised rates by 25 basis points yesterday, effectively reversing the rate cuts seen earlier in 2025. The move marked the central bank’s third consecutive hike as policymakers continue their fight against stubborn inflation pressures. Technically, the bullish momentum gained traction yesterday when the pair moved

There aren’t any major expiries to take note of on the day, with the full list seen below. There’s not much to pick up on when looking at the option expiries board for today. As such, trading sentiment will continue to ride more heavily on the risk mood among other things. But amid another round

Trump speaking at a Mother’s Day event at the White House says: Iran wants to make a deal Dealing with people who want to make a deal. We will see whether or not they agree. The blockade is unbelievable Will not let Iran have a nuclear weapon. Meanwhile Israel’s Netanyahu is also speaking and says:

Australia will spend more than A$10bn to establish a permanent government fuel reserve of around one billion litres and lift minimum stockpiles across all fuel types by approximately ten days. Summary: Prime Minister Anthony Albanese announced Australia would lift minimum stockpiles on every type of fuel by around ten days, according to the announcement A

China is back from an extended holiday today. The People’s Bank of China is due to set the daily USD/CNY reference rate at around 0115 GMT (2115 US Eastern time), a fixing that remains one of the most closely watched signals in Asian foreign exchange markets. China operates a managed floating exchange rate system, under

The USDJPY moved sharply lower earlier today, breaking below both its 100-day moving average at 157.316 and the falling 100-hour moving average at 156.90 — a bearish technical development that shifted momentum firmly in favor of the sellers. The decline also pushed the pair below the 50% retracement of the rally from the February 12

PBOC CNY reference rate setting for the trading session ahead. The 6.8562 is the strongest since March 24, 2023. The PBOC allows the yuan to fluctuate within a +/- 2% range, around this rate. PBOC injects 26bn yuan through 7 day reverse repos at unchanged rate of 1.4% This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan

The pair is down over 90 pips in a drop back to just below the 157.00 level. The timing seems to fit, with it being a Japanese market holiday and the last two attempts also came as we got into the period between Asia to the start of European trading. That said, the previous attempts

Prior 50.9 Final Composite PMI 48.4 vs 48.3 prelim Prior 51.9 Key findings: Business activity falls at quickest rate for nearly three and-a-half years Confidence slumps amid deepening downturn in demand Output price inflation jumps to 26-month high Comment: Phil Smith, Economics Associate Director at S&P Global Market Intelligence: “The chances of the German economy

FUNDAMENTAL OVERVIEW USD: The US dollar weakened across the board again today following several positive news on the US-Iran front. Late yesterday, the US Secretary of State Marco Rubio declared Operation Epic Fury concluded and its objectives achieved. That was followed by Trump tonight pausing Project Freedom so that the US could work to finalise

Secretary of State Rubio: Iran is creating long range missiles that could reach parts of Europe Witkopf and Kushner working on diplomatic path Iran must come to the table and except terms. US will continue to clear the passageway through the Strait of Hormuz to restore freedom of navigation US have destroyed 7 Iranian and

AMD beats Q1 earnings estimates with revenue of $10.25bn and strong Q2 outlook NASDAQ and S&P index close at record levels Crude oil trades between 100/200 hour MAs. Neutral bias. Rubio: Iran creating long range missiles that could reach parts of Europe Bitcoin buyers push to the highest level since the end of January Atlanta

US Treasury announces $125 bln refunding through July 2026, to raise new cash of $41.7 bln US Treasury to keep coupon, floating rate note auction sizes unchanged for the next several quarters U.S. to sell $25 bln 30-year bonds on May 13, to settle on May 15 U.S. to sell $58 bln 3-year notes on

Gold tops $4,650 as weaker dollar and Iran peace hopes lift precious metals NAB calls June RBA hike to 4.60% as Middle East inflation compounds domestic pressures ING sees AUD rebound ahead as RBA signals pause but stands ready to act China private survey Rating Dog Services PMI 52.6 in April (up from 52.1 in

Headlines: US, Iran reportedly getting close to a framework deal to end the war Iranian navy talks up possible safe transit through Strait of Hormuz as US threats recede The S&P 500 extends gains into new record highs as US, Iran close in on a deal to end war USD/JPY sees a quick knock down

On peace negotiations, reaction from Israel is conflicting: Israel was reportedly unaware that the US was nearing a deal with Iran had been preparing for an escalation. Israel security/military officials reportedly believe negotiations are a waste of time and conveyed to the US a desire to resume attacks on Iran. However, in recent hours Israel

FUNDAMENTAL OVERVIEW The S&P 500 extended the gains into new record highs today following several positive news on the US-Iran front. Late yesterday, the US Secretary of State Marco Rubio declared Operation Epic Fury concluded and its objectives achieved. That was followed by Trump tonight pausing Project Freedom so that the US could work to

Sector overview The US stock market today presents a diverse landscape, highlighted by the impressive performance of the technology sector, driven primarily by semiconductors. On the other hand, the energy sector faces significant declines, illustrating a divergent market scenario. Semiconductors: NVDA emerges as the standout performer with a substantial gain of 3.98%. This surge underscores

New Zealand’s central bank says its financial system is resilient and banks can withstand significant shocks, but warns the Middle East conflict will slow the country’s economic recovery. Summary: The RBNZ’s May 2026 Financial Stability Report found the financial system resilient and well positioned to support households and businesses even if conditions soften, according to

Super Micro Computer beat Q3 adjusted EPS estimates at $0.84 vs $0.63 but missed revenue at $10.24bn against the $12.45bn forecast, while guiding Q4 EPS above consensus. Summary: SMCI reported Q3 adjusted EPS of $0.84, well ahead of the $0.63 estimate, according to the company’s earnings release Third-quarter revenue came in at $10.24bn, missing the

The S&P and NASDAQ indices close at record levels. The gains were led by the NASDAQ which rose by 1.03%. The S&P rose by 0.81%.. The Dow industrial average rose by 0.73%. The small-cap Russell 2000 was also a beneficiary of risk on sentiment. 2 closed at a new record with a gain of 1.75%.

Prior 50.5 Final Composite PMI 52.6 vs 52.0 prelim Prior 50.3 Key findings: Higher fuel prices lead to intensifying inflationary pressures across the service economy Business activity growth picks up from March’s 11-month low Lower export sales weigh on order books during April Comment: Tim Moore, Economics Director at S&P Global Market Intelligence, said: “April

Services PMI 47.6 vs 47.4 prelim Prior 50.2 Composite PMI 48.8 vs 48.6 prelim Prior 50.7 Trouble, trouble. The services PMI was the lowest in 62 months while the composite PMI was the lowest in 17 months as the euro area economy is hit hard from the uncertainty caused by the Middle East conflict. The

Prior was +62K (revised to +61K) Details: Goods +15K versus +30K last month Service +94K versus +32K last month Small business +65K vs +85K prior Medium businesses +2K vs -20K last month Large businesses +42K vs -4K last month Wages: Wages for job stayers 4.4% vs 4.5% last month Wages for job changers 6.6% vs

The early reports this morning suggest that the U.S. and Iran are moving closer to a one-page memorandum aimed at ending the war — or at least establishing another ceasefire framework. The agreement would reportedly serve as the foundation for more detailed nuclear negotiations going forward, including discussions surrounding future uranium enrichment limits, which was

Trump’s post on Truth Social: “Assuming Iran agrees to give what has been agreed to, which is, perhaps, a big assumption, the already legendary Epic Fury will be at an end, and the highly effective Blockade will allow the Hormuz Strait to be OPEN TO ALL, including Iran. If they don’t agree, the bombing starts,

The report says that Washington is of the belief that an agreement is within reach as they are moving close to a one-page memorandum of understanding to end the war. Just take note though that the agreement here will be separate to nuclear talks, as it will also attach a framework for more detailed negotiations

The confluence of a weaker dollar, retreating oil prices and ceasefire optimism has created a near-ideal short-term environment for gold, but the rally carries an inherent fragility: any re-escalation between the US and Iran could trigger rapid profit-taking and force short-term speculators to unwind net long positions quickly. The relationship between oil and gold remains

Services PMI 47.6 vs 47.6 prelim Prior 48.8 Composite PMI 47.6 vs 47.6 prelim Prior 48.8 The readings were not changed from the initial estimates, reaffirming a further decline in French services and overall business activity in April. Of note, new orders were seen falling at the fastest rate since November 2023. The survey revealed

New Zealand’s unemployment rate fell to 5.3% in Q1, beating the 5.4% forecast, but economists warn the labour market impact of the Middle East conflict is still six to twelve months away. Summary: New Zealand’s unemployment rate fell to 5.3% in Q1, below the 5.4% forecast and prior reading of 5.4%, according to Statistics New

National Australia Bank now expects the RBA to hike again in June to 4.60%, arguing the central bank faces a compounding inflation shock it cannot afford to let run, with cuts pencilled in for H2 2027. Earlier: ING sees AUD rebound ahead as RBA signals pause but stands ready to act Westpac sees upside inflation

Their previous attempts since last week were thwarted by buying closer to the 155.50-70 region. But after a push towards the 158.00 mark yesterday, Tokyo officials look to be saying enough is enough and are going hard on the intervention push today. The latest round of yen buying support from the MOF now sees USD/JPY

The EU has urged the US to swiftly restore the 15% Turnberry tariff terms agreed last year, ahead of the deal’s one-year anniversary in July, following talks between Sefcovic and Greer in Paris. Info via Reuters report. Summary: EU trade chief Maros Sefcovic met US Trade Representative Jamieson Greer in Paris for a ninety-minute discussion

The RBA raised its cash rate 25bps to 4.35% in an 8-1 vote, citing Middle East inflation pressures, but Westpac sees the June move as more finely balanced after Governor Bullock’s dovish tone. Summary: The RBA Monetary Policy Board raised the cash rate by 25 basis points to 4.35% at its May 2026 meeting in

ING expects the Australian dollar to recover after post-RBA weakness, saying the central bank retains its hawkish credentials and stands ready to hike again if inflation data materially surprises. Earlier: Westpac sees upside inflation risks after RBA lifts cash rate to 4.35% in 8-1 vote AUD faces headwinds above 0.72 as RBA signals pause, TD

Crude oil is under pressure, trading down $3.80 (-3.57%) at $102.62, after a volatile session that saw a high of $105.48 and a low of $101.08. From a technical perspective, the price has fallen back below the 100-hour moving average at $104.60, shifting near-term control back toward sellers. However, the decline found support just ahead

China’s RatingDog services PMI rose to 52.6 in April from 52.1 in March, with domestic demand driving a fortieth successive month of new order growth, while the composite PMI climbed to 53.1 Summary: The RatingDog China General Services Business Activity Index rose to 52.6 in April from 52.1 in March, signalling a faster rate of

Results via oilprice.com: Expectations I had seen: headline crude oil -2.8mn barrels distillates -2mn bbls gasolina -1.7mn bbls This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

TD Securities has shifted its RBA call to a final 25bps hike in August to 4.60%, citing dovish May messaging and Middle East income shock risks, while warning AUD faces near-term headwinds above 0.72. Summary: The RBA hiked the cash rate 25 basis points to 4.35% in an 8-1 vote at its May meeting, with

Commonwealth Bank expects the RBA to hold rates at 4.35% for the rest of 2026 before cutting in 2027, though an August hike remains possible if Q2 trimmed mean CPI surprises to the upside. Earlier: Westpac sees upside inflation risks after RBA lifts cash rate to 4.35% in 8-1 vote AUD faces headwinds above 0.72

Trump: Iran, U.S. have mutually agreed that, while blockade will remain in full force and effect, Project Freedom (movement of ships through Strait of Hormuz) will be paused for a short period of time to see whether or not agreement can be finalized and signed This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

I posted earlier on Trump trying to hold together the ceasefire: Trump seeks to preserve Iran ceasefire as UAE says missile and drone attacks continue More positively now. Trump posting on “great success” towards agreement, This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

New Zealand jobs report more to come This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

New Zealand’s labour market looked set to show continued slack heading into the first quarter of the year, with economists flagging that upcoming survey data would paint a picture of restrained hiring and subdued wage growth before the Middle East conflict began to weigh on the economy. Westpac economists expected the unemployment rate to hold

Advanced Micro Devices posted Q1 adjusted EPS of $1.37 vs est. $1.28 on revenue of $10.25bn, beating the $9.89bn consensus, and guided Q2 revenue to $10.9bn-$11.5bn. Summary: AMD reported Q1 adjusted EPS of $1.37, ahead of the $1.28 estimate, according to the company’s earnings release First-quarter revenue came in at $10.25bn, topping the consensus estimate

The USDCHF found support late last week after testing a key swing area floor between 0.7774 and 0.7782, a level that has held multiple times since April. Friday’s low at 0.77782 attracted buyers, sparking a rebound that carried into Monday. That upside momentum extended through a nearby resistance zone between 0.78309 and 0.7840, but the

The Atlanta Fed GDPNow growth estimate for the 2nd quarter rose to 3.7% from 3.5%. In their own words: The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the second quarter of 2026 is 3.7 percent on May 5, up from 3.5 percent on May 1. After recent releases from the

Bitcoin dipped yesterday and used the rising 100-hour moving average as a springboard. Buyers leaned against that level, defended it, and turned price action higher—a move that has extended into today’s session. Importantly, the rally has pushed—and held—the price above the 50% midpoint of the 2026 trading range at $78,978, marking a clear shift in

The technical landscape for Ethereum (ETH) as of May 5, 2026, reveals a pivotal shift in momentum based on the daily chart above. This internal strength is developing alongside a broader market recovery where tech shares are leading a rebound and US futures remain steady despite geopolitical tensions. As I also wrote this morning, Nasdaq

Prior 6.882M JOLTs job openings 6.866M vs 6.835M estimate Quits 2.0%vs 1.9% prior . 3.17 billion versus 2.974 million last month Vacancy rate 4.1% versus 4.2% last month Details from the BLS: Openings decreased in professional and business services (-318K) and increased in finance and insurance (+98K) Hires: Hires: 5.6 million (+655K) – rebounded after

The translated message: “The new equation of the Strait of Hormuz is in the process of being solidified. The security of shipping and energy transit has been jeopardized by the United States and its allies through the violation of the ceasefire and the imposition of a blockade; of course, their evil will diminish. We know

The EURUSD and GBPUSD have both pushed to fresh session highs in the North American session, but the technical story diverges beneath the surface. For EURUSD, the move higher ran into a key confluence—a trifecta of resistance defined by the 100-hour, 200-hour, and 100-day moving averages, all clustered near 1.17078. The pair briefly extended to

Prior month 0.587M New Home Sales Summary – March 2026 Sales Activity March 2026 new single-family home sales: 682,000 seasonally-adjusted annual rate Up 7.4% from February 2026 (635,000) versus -17.4 last month Up 3.3% from March 2025 (660,000) February 2026 sales of 635,000 were up 8.9% from January 2026 (583,000) For Sale Inventory & Months’

Sector Overview The US stock market today presented a diverse picture with mixed performances across sectors. Notably, the technology sector faced challenges, marked by declines in major players, while semiconductor stocks witnessed a boost. Technology: Both Microsoft (MSFT) and Meta (META) experienced dips, down 0.75% and 0.99% respectively. This decline reflects investor caution in the

NASDAQ futures are trying to shift from recovery mode into bullish control, but the market still needs to prove acceptance above the upper value zone. For today’s NQ futures tradeCompass, the main decision area is clear: Bullish above: 27942.50 Bearish below: 27828.00 Main balance zone: 27828.00 to 27942.50 Key intraday magnet: 27890.00 At the time

Prior month 47.2 Services PMI (Business Activity): 49.2 (prev. 47.2) → 6th month below 50 (contraction) Composite PMI: 49.9 → just below expansion threshold New Orders: Increased (first rise since Nov 2024) Employment: Increased (first gain since Aug 2025) Selling Prices: Highest increase in 2 years Input Costs: Remain elevated (unchanged vs prior month) Confidence:

The USDJPY tumbled sharply last week after intervention fears out of Japan surfaced as the pair pushed above the 160.00 level. That warning triggered aggressive selling, driving the price down to 155.46—just ahead of the 61.8% retracement of the move up from the February 12 low (155.505). Buyers leaned against that level, and the pair

NQ futures trader update Score: -2.5 / +10Bias: Mild bearish pressure, but not full bearish controlConfidence: Medium-low NQ is pulling back after failing to sustain trade near the upper value zone at 28097 to 28111.50. The morning structure was constructive, but the latest sequence shows sellers gaining short-term control as price rotates away from the