Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi: Concession and retreat will only make the bully more aggressive Dialogue can help resolve differences *** While US officials keep telling us that they are in contact with China over tariffs China is not seemingly responsive. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

Spain Q1 preliminary GDP +0.6% vs +0.7% q/q expected Prior 0.7% Q1 GPD Y/Y 2.8% vs 3.1% expected Prior 3.4% This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at www.forexlive.com.

China’s 2nd batch of 81 bn yuan ultra-long special treasury bonds for consumer trade-in * There is one Canadian election outcome that could hurt the loonie … and here it comes CAD sliding further now after projections show a minority Carney government is likely * Hidden damage: Trump tariffs threaten bigger blow to China’s economy,

Ray Dalio isn’t mincing words: the world is past the point of avoiding a historic realignment in trade, capital markets, and geopolitics. In a stark warning, the Bridgewater founder said hopes for a negotiated fix to the U.S.-led tariff battles are “naive.” The shift away from U.S.-centric trade and investment flows is already happening —

Despite rising concerns that U.S. assets may lose their edge to international markets, Morgan Stanley sees the recent sharp decline in the dollar as a potential lifeline for U.S. equities. “The weaker dollar should benefit large cap U.S. relative EPS revisions (particularly versus Europe and Japan)” “From a global standpoint, we recommend favoring U.S. over

US Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick was seemingly on TV daily in the lead-up to Liberation Day and just afterwards. He delivered a belligerent message and promised that the ‘reciprocal tariffs’ wouldn’t be walked back (they were). Lutnick is a grating personality and has been loose with his words and his criticism of trading partners, causing

POLITICO cite a draft they have seen: UK and the European Union are set to sign a formal declaration committing to “free and open trade” leaked draft seen by POLITICO promises a “new strategic partnership” between London and Brussels based on “maintaining global economic stability and our mutual commitment to free and open trade.” A

I posted earlier on Nikkei: “Japan life insurers set to cut JGB holdings by $9bn” Via a Barclays note now, in brief: Japan’s largest four life insurers plan to reduce or stay flat in JGBs Many life insurers view super-long bonds as attractive compared to their liability costs, but they are unlikely to buy aggressively.

Tesla expects first Semi trucks to enter production by end-2025 at its Nevada gigafactory, with full ramp-up planned through 2026, according to Semi program head Dan Priestley. Annual production capacity is targeted at 50,000 units, as Tesla prepares for high-volume output over the next few quarters. Semi production has faced repeated delays, missing original 2019

US stocks close mixed/little changed A total of 12 of the 30 Dow stocks will announce earnings this week. US Q2 Treasury borrowing estimate soars to $514 billion Gold erases Friday’s drop, range now defined Crude oil settles at $62.05 Lutnick will be let out of the penalty box tomorrow There is one Canadian election

Good morning, afternoon and evening all. Any charts, technical analysis, trade ideas, thoughts, views, ForexLive traders would like to share and discuss with fellow ForexLive traders, please do so: This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

The original US tax bill goal date was Memorial Day. US Treas Sec Bessent now says he hopes for July 4. Bessent met with ‘Big Six’ GOP leaders, including Speaker Mike Johnson and Senate Majority Leader John Thune, at 4 PM to discuss the party-line megabill and the approaching debt ceiling “X-date.” As for the

This week no fewer than 12 of the Dow 30 stocks will be announcing earnings this week including Coca Cola, Visa and Mastercard, Caterpillar, Apple and Amazon. . Below is the complete list, days and times for those releases. Tuesday: Before Open: UPS (UPS) Coca-Cola (KO) After Close: Visa (V) Wednesday: Before Open: Caterpillar (CAT)

Sees $514 billion in Q2 borrowing Previously saw $123 billion Assumes end-of-quarter balance of $850 billion The Treasury says ” The borrowing estimate is $391 billion higher than announced in February 2025, primarily due to the lower beginning-of-quarter cash balance and projected lower net cash flows, partially offset by lower Federal Reserve System Open Market

Trump wants tax cuts in this reconciliation package I think we’ve had enough teases about trade deals, they’re not market moving headlines anymore. This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

It’s been a rough day last Wednesday for the crude oil market as a couple of bearish news weighed on prices. The first catalyst came with the Kazakhstan Energy Minister saying that National interests take priority over OPEC+ interests on output levels. That weighed on the market on higher supply expectations. Later in the day,

The US first quarter GDP report is proving to be one of the toughest ones for economists to forecast since the pandemic. The range from professional economists is -1.5% to +1.7% and the range from models is even wider. Now I would argue that there is so much noise in the report that it shouldn’t

The USDCAD is trading within a narrow 43-pip range today, well below the 113-pip average over the past month. The session low was set early at 1.3849, while the high reached 1.38917. The current price is trading around 1.3868. On the hourly chart, the lows from the past three trading days have consistently found support

Canadians are voting today in an election that’s been dominated by antagonism and threats of annexation from the President of the United States. In general, the stakes are low for the Canadian dollar. That’s in large part because the Liberals switched leaders to Mark Carney and he’s moved the Liberal platform much closer to the

The Nasdaq opened at the best levels since Liberation Day today but that’s been followed by a decent reversal with the index now down 1.0%. The question for investors right now is whether it’s best to bail after a return to pre-tariff levels or whether a new bull market has started? I don’t think the

April credit card data from Bank of America doesn’t show a slowdown in US consumer spending. If anything, there was a slight acceleration in early April after tariffs were announced. 1) This could be tariff front-running 2) Drops in consumer confidence haven’t led to less spending There are certainly reasons to worry about the US

China Gold Association reports gold consumption fell in Q1 down 5.96% to 290,492 metric tons Q1 domestic mined gold output reached 87.243 tons, up 1.49% y/y. Gold ETF holdings in China in Q1 increased by 23.47 tons, up 327.73% y/y Headlines via Reuters more to come This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

The Portuguese grid operator — REN — is out with a diagnosis of what happened with the huge power outage today: Due to extreme temperature variations in the interior of Spain, there were anomalous oscillations in very high volatge lines, something called ‘induced atmospheric vibration’ These osculations cause synchronization failures between the electrical systems It’s

The USDJPY has broken below the 100-hour moving average and has now extended down to test the next key target — the 200-hour moving average, which comes in at 142.274. The low price just reached 142.267. It’s worth recalling that last Thursday, the price moved down toward the 200-hour MA but found willing buyers ahead

German DAX futures flat UK FTSE futures flat US futures are marked down though, with S&P 500 futures lower by 0.4%. Trade headlines will continue to be the main thing to watch out for but there will be other factors in play as well. Month-end flows being one of that but we’ll also have key

HFM, a leading global financial broker under the HFM Group, continues to provide innovative tools to its clients. One of them is its revolutionary HFM Copy Trading Platform, designed to refine trading and set new standards in transparency and trader empowerment. Unlike traditional copy trading platforms, HFM redefines the experience by giving users full visibility

Putin declares truce for Victory Day May 7-11th. In the event of violations of the ceasefire by Ukraine, Russia will respond. More: Russia once again declares its readiness for peace talks without preconditions. I don’t think Russia-Ukraine peace deal is that much of a deal for global markets. At margin, it could be negative for

Crude oil futures are lower by about $-1.22 or -1.94% at $61.80. The low price today has reached $61.69. The high price is at $63.66. Concerns about the potential for increased supply along with slower growth seems to be weighing on the price. Crude oil futures are trading lower, down about $1.54 or -2.08% at

The week will start off slowly in terms of scheduled economic events, but markets will remain alert to any unexpected announcements from the U.S. administration, particularly regarding potential retaliatory tariffs. On Monday, Canada will hold its federal election while on Tuesday, in the U.S., we will receive the JOLTS job openings report and the CB

UK Times, and other media outlets, with the latest from EY Item Club, which is sponsored by the big four accountancy firm EY, EY’s forecast: now expects UK gross domestic product (GDP) to grow by 0.8% in 2025, down from their projection of 1% in February cut its 2026 forecast from 1.6% to 0.9%, citing

There are some larger expiries for EUR/USD and USD/JPY on the board for today. However, they are sitting quite a distance away from the prevailing spot levels. As such, they aren’t going to factor into play unless we get some headlines to jolt price action into life in the session ahead. For now, the overall

Will suggest to the US to return to zero on all tariffs Brother, you already are in an open trade war with the US and the Vice President called Europe ‘pathetic’. This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

Shanghai is seen as the main financial hub in China, so the visit is one that could take on some importance. Even if not from what he will be saying during the visit but at least in terms of the optics. It comes at a time when US and China are still locking horns on

Worst reading since May 2020 Prior was -16.3 Production +5.1 vs +6.0 prior New orders -20.0 vs -0.1 prior Capex -0.4 vs -0.6 prior Employment -3.9 vs -4.6 prior Outlook -28.3 vs -10.7 prior Future production +14.8 vs +27.6 prior 34% of firms reported declining new orders. Comments in the report are very interesting. Chemical

Latvian central bank governor, and therefore a Governing Council member of the European Central Bank, Martins Kazaks. Comments reported via Bloomberg. Bloomberg is gated, but in brief, Kazak’s main points were: US tariff policies may slow down inflation and cause a recession But developments are head are unclear right now “If inflation were to undershoot

I posted on the slump back on Thursday last week: Trucking volumes out of LA (a major port city) have collapsed The Financial Times have followed up, this from earlier: Financial Times on “Demand slump fuelled by Trump tariffs hits US ports and air freight” When I posted that FT piece I hadn’t known it

The USD has been supported recently amid the ongoing de-escalation in trade wars. This has most likely to do with positioning rather than fundamentals. In fact, the short dollar trade got very overstretched, so positive news on the tariffs front could provide a pullback on some unwinding of those trades. In the medium term, the

FoxBusiness Charlier Gasparino is X-ing on the Japan tariff deal and tariff concerns: There is a hold-up in the Japan tariff deal over the level of commitment to buy oil from the Alaska pipeline. Howard Lutnick remains a key player in tariff negotiations and recently argued to a lawmaker that tariffs won’t cause inflation. GOP

If you missed it, there was an ‘ECB sources’ story on the weekend saying that more ECB members leaning towards a June cut. Tariff effects in eurozone are two ways Underlying inflation pressures are easing This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

The Nasdaq index is trading at new session lows, down around 200 points or -1.14% at 17,183.96. Earlier in the day, the index reached a high of 17,467.35, coming within about 27 points of the key 50% midpoint of the move from the December 16 all-time high to the April 7 low. That midpoint level

Gold Futures Analysis for Today – June 2025 Contract – April 28, 2025 Current Price at the time of this gold futures analysis: 3,293.5 Active Bias: Bearish below 3,305.5 Context and Market Insights: Gold futures continue to demonstrate bearish momentum following consecutive failures to reclaim crucial Volume Weighted Average Price (VWAP) and Point of Control

The EURUSD pushed above the 100-hour moving average at 1.1370, a level that had previously stalled rallies twice earlier in the day. After breaking higher, the pair extended gains through the 200-hour moving average at 1.1397 (green line), reaching a high of 1.1413. However, momentum faded, and the price has since rotated back below the

When it comes to reading Trump and his words, we all know that there’s always going to be two sides to the coin. He loves to make a show of things and be flamboyant. But the truth of the matter is more often than not what he will not portray. It’s all about scoring wins

The USDCHF is holding a more bullish bias in early trading today as buyers continue to lean against key technical support. The pair remains above a swing area near 0.8269 and the rising 100-hour moving average, currently at 0.8263. This area has been a clear line in the sand for buyers, helping to stall downside

It’s been a nice week for the S&P 500 as the market rallied by more than 7% on more de-escalation news. The underlying expectations continue to point towards further de-escalation and eventually deals, which is a positive for growth and therefore the stock market. We will likely remain in a “buy the dip” environment until

US dollar losses are accelerating in an ominous sign today. The latest leg lower came after the Dallas Fed manufacturing index fell to the lowest since May 2020. The report was littered with angst about tariffs and uncertainty in the real economy. The market is weighing whether all the poor sentiment numbers are truly indicative

Chinese authorities press conference announce further measures to prompt economic growth and employment. Present are officials from the: National Development and Reform Commission (China’s ‘state planner’) Ministry of Human Resources and Social Security Ministry of Commerce People’s Bank of China Earlier: China exports withstand pressure PBOC deputy governor says will cut RRR, interest rates, at

It is a complicated relationship with China US has had substantial discussions with Japanese allies on trade Chinese exemptions show they want a de-escalation on trade Europeans are panicked about strength of euro 17 important trading partners have made ‘very good proposals’ to avert US tariffs Negotiations with Asian trading partners going very well Says

Bitcoin Analysis Today – Micro Bitcoin Futures (MBT) – April 28, 2025 Current Price: 95,760 (MBT Contract) Market Context and Key Levels for Bitcoin Today: Micro Bitcoin Futures (ticker: MBT) are currently trading at 95,760. Bitcoin futures today are gravitating towards a critical price magnet at 95,930—the Point of Control (POC) from Friday’s trading session.

Sector Overview The U.S. stock market exhibits a mixed bag today, with significant sectoral shifts visible across the spectrum. Of note, the semiconductors sector is seeing substantial declines, casting a shadow over broader technology stocks. Key player Nvidia (NVDA) is down 2.33%, a significant drop that underscores bearish investor sentiment in this pivotal industry. Conversely,

Trump sees no red line that would change tariff policy. “Trump pushed back on the notion, popular among some Wall Street analysts, that financial turmoil – plummeting markets, the threat of a recession, a weakened dollar – would cause him to roll back his tariff policies.” “It always affects you a little bit” he said,

The AUDUSD is showing resilience by holding above the key 100-hour and 200-hour moving averages, currently clustered around the 0.6388 area. This zone also corresponds with an old ceiling. Despite this underlying support, buyers have struggled to gain real momentum. The last 5 trading days has seen the price action trade above and below the

From an interview with Reuters: In a normal armed conflict, both countries should refrain from using nuclear weapons Says would only use nuclear weapons if there is a direct threat to our existence Great, just great. More war is just what the world needs, especially between a country with 1.4 billion people and another with

The economic calendar is, as the headline says, empty. UK house prices is the first item listed for 0600 GMT on Monday, April 28, 2025 (0200 US Eastern time). This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

Japan’s economy minister, Ryosei Akazawa, is the man in charge of negotiations with the US on tariffs. And he’s out saying that their stance has not changed whatsoever, in that they are still demanding a full removal of tariffs. This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

The GBPUSD is extending to new highs and in the process is moving into the upper extreme from last week’s trading. That upper extreme comes between 1.3361 and 1.34233. Swing highs and lows from Monday and Tuesday of last week are around these levels. The high price just reached 1.33707. The current price trades at

B2PRIME Group, a global financial services provider for institutional and professional clients, has announced the appointment of Fernando Wladdimiro as its new Institutional Business Development Manager. He joins the company from State Street, where he held the role of Vice President – eFX Sales & Relationship Management. Fernando joins B2PRIME after more than 7 years

Headlines: Trump sees no red line that would change tariff policy – The Atlantic China’s Foreign Ministry: President Xi and Trump did not have call recently We are still demanding a full removal of US tariffs, says Japan economy minister South Korea says no chance to reach trade deal with US before next presidential election

The USD is little changed to start the new day/week. The dollar is also mixed vs the major currencies. A snapshot currently shows: EUR unchanged JPY +0.30% GBP -0.24% CHF +0.11% CAD unchanged AUD -0.17% NZD +0.07% For the trading week last week,, the greenback was mixed with gains versus the EUR, JPY, CHF and

ECB’s deGuidos is speaking and says : incoming data suggests modest growth in the first quarter of 2025. Looking ahead, inflation is expected to hover around our target Meeting by meeting approach to setting the appropriate monetary policy stance This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

Rate cuts by year-end Fed: 86 bps (90% probability of no change at the upcoming meeting) ECB: 60 bps (79% probability of rate cut at the upcoming meeting) BoE: 88 bps (97% probability of rate cut at the upcoming meeting) BoC: 43 bps (61% probability of no change at the upcoming meeting) RBA: 121 bps

Dow Jones Futures Analysis for Today – YM Contract – April 28, 2025 Current Price of Dow Jones Futures at the Time of This Analysis: 40,289 (YM Futures) Market Context and Key Levels: Dow Jones futures (ticker: YM) are currently trading at 40,289, closely aligned with Friday’s closing price. Today’s price action indicates YM futures

It’s election day in Canada and Trump is trying to make it all about him. Good luck to the Great people of Canada. Elect the man who has the strength and wisdom to cut your taxes in half, increase your military power, for free, to the highest level in the World, have your Car, Steel,

Speculation of People’s Bank of China cuts never go away. This the latest from the China Securities Daily the Bank is seen cutting the RRR and interest rates in Q2 If not, the next set of headlines will roll it into Q3. Rinse, repeat. Ahead today from China: Heads up for a China news conference

It’s going to be kind of a synthetic Sunday today as we don’t have anything notable on the agenda other than a couple of low tier releases. Anyways, the focus remains on tariff related news and the underlying expectations are for more de-escalation ahead and eventually deals (even with China). This has been the trend

The People’s Bank of China (PBOC), China’s central bank, is responsible for setting the daily midpoint of the yuan (also known as renminbi or RMB). The PBOC follows a managed floating exchange rate system that allows the value of the yuan to fluctuate within a certain range, called a “band,” around a central reference rate,

PBOC deputy governor says will cut reserve Requirement ratio (RRR), interest rates, at an appropriate time to focus financial support on stabilising jobs, economic growth will guide financial institutions to guarantee financing demand for foreign trading firms (i.e. exporters) studying plans to enrich policy kit will roll out new policies when needed *** Earlier: China’s

Chinese authorities press conference announce further measures to prompt economic growth and employment. Present are officials from the: National Development and Reform Commission (China’s ‘state planner’) Ministry of Human Resources and Social Security Ministry of Commerce People’s Bank of China more to come This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

President Xi and Trump did not have call recently. US and China have not conducted negotiations or consultations on tariffs. This is the same old denying from the Chinese to comments from Trump about ongoing talks on tariffs. Nothing new here. This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at www.forexlive.com.

Coming up on Tuesday, April 29, 2025, at 12.05pm Sydney time: 0205 GMT 2205 US Eastern time on Monday, April 28, 2025 Keynote speech by Christopher Kent, Assistant Governor (Financial Markets) Topic is “Australia’s External Position and the Evolution of the FX Markets” speaking at Bloomberg, Sydney This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at

Bank of Japan expectations survey via Bloomberg (gated). In brief, nothing of much surprise: The Bank of Japan will keep interest rates at 0.5% and pause further hikes due to rising economic risks from US tariffs. New tariffs are expected to shave 0.5% off Japan’s GDP, delaying any rate hikes until at least October. Despite

Eurostoxx +0.5% Germany DAX +0.4% France CAC 40 +0.5% UK FTSE +0.4% Spain IBEX +0.6% Italy FTSE MIB +0.6% US futures have also pared losses somewhat, with S&P 500 futures just down by 0.1% currently. It’s all still early in the day and even more so on the week. Trump’s tariffs and trade headlines will

The Financial Times with the info: The Financial Times is gated, but in brief: The Port of Los Angeles, the main route of entry for goods from China, expects scheduled arrivals in the week starting May 4 to be a third lower than a year before, while airfreight handlers have also reported sharp falls in

U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent spoke with US media on Sunday. Bessent said that while he spoke with his Chinese counterparts last week during International Monetary Fund meetings in Washington, tariffs were not mentioned! Further in the interview Bessent refused to back up Trump’s assertion that Trump had spoken with China’s President Xi: “I don’t

Prior -41 That’s the highest reading since October last year as UK retail sales balance bounces back in April. Is it better weather conditions that is helping, similar to what we saw in March here? The expectations balance for May isn’t as bright though, falling to -33 and that is down from -30 previously. This

Domestic sight deposits CHF 442.6 bn vs CHF 439.7 bn prior This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

Japan’s top currency official denied a media report claiming U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent supported a strong yen: Mr Yen says Completely untrue about media report that Bessent said stronger yen preferable More, in brief: Atsushi Mimura said, “the U.S. side did not touch upon exchange-rate targets in the finance minister talks.” Finance Minister Katsunobu

Bloomberg (gated) carried comments from Gediminas Šimkus, Chairman of the Board of the Bank of Lithuania and European Central Bank Governing Council member (the monetary policy making board of the Bank). Bloomberg is gated, but in brief: ECB could lower interest rates at least two more times this year, citing: global trade weakness, largely caused

People’s Bank of China USD/CNY reference rate is due around 0115 GMT. The People’s Bank of China (PBOC), China’s central bank, is responsible for setting the daily midpoint of the yuan (also known as renminbi or RMB). The PBOC follows a managed floating exchange rate system that allows the value of the yuan to fluctuate

The narrative of Trump versus the world continues to dominate the market landscape as we look towards the end of April. While he was busy over the weekend putting in focus on the Russia-Ukraine conflict, it is leaving broader markets wanting in the new week expecting some new development on tariffs/trade. And that’s where we

According to Barclays’ month-end FX rebalancing model, strong dollar buying is indicated against the rest of the major currencies bloc for April. This comes after Trump’s reciprocal tariffs announcement led to massive selling in US equities and bonds during the month. “The clear outflows from all major US assets at a pace of c.3-4 standard

Fundamental Overview The USD continues to be supported amid the ongoing de-escalation in trade wars. This has most likely to do more with positioning rather than fundamentals. The short dollar trade got very overstretched so positive news on the tariffs front is providing a pullback. In the medium term, the US Dollar should keep on

South Korea is saying that they will be aiming to create six or so working groups with the US to discuss tariffs, economic security, and economic cooperation. However, any trade agreement will not come before the presidential election on 3 June. This looks to be more of a domestic exception but so far, there haven’t

Good morning, afternoon and evening all. Any charts, technical analysis, trade ideas, thoughts, views, ForexLive traders would like to share and discuss with fellow ForexLive traders, please do so: This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

We are in a moment of great economic uncertainty But does not see any extra inflation in the region Does not anticipate a recession in France, Europe Trump’s policies, US protectionism are not working The ECB is set to meet in June next and market players are slowly warming up to the idea of another

ICYMI – Bezos-backed start-up launches EV truck for less than $US20,000. Tesla killer? AUD traders note – RBA Assistant Governor (Financial Markets) Kent speaking tomorrow China’s vice commerce minister (more): Exports steady in April, will expand imports PBOC deputy governor says will cut RRR, interest rates, at an appropriate time China Gold Association reports gold

Reuters with the report, in summary: Shares of Toyota Industries surged on Monday after Toyota announced it was exploring a potential investment in the key parts supplier. Toyota Industries shares remained untraded due to a flood of buy orders, with bids suggesting a 23% jump to the daily limit of 16,225 yen. If realised, it

ICYMI, an EV pick up launched by Slate Auto, a firm backed in part by Amazon founder Jeff Bezos: starting price point US$20,000 after federal EV incentives made in the USA two-door version can be changed into a 5-seat SUV base model is about two-thirds the size of a Chevy Silverado EV and just a

Trump was asked by a reporter a question on whether he thought Ukrainian leader Zelensky was ready to “give up” the Crimea territory that Russia occupied in 2014: Trump responded “Oh, I think so” This would be a direct contradiction to the Ukrainian leader’s previous statements on the peninsula annexed by Russia. Earlier from Trump:

The CME turns on Globex again in just a few minutes time. About the latest I’ve seen on tariff talk (lack of) developments with China is this from US Treasury Secretary Bessent over the weekend: U.S. Treas Sec Bessent didn’t back Trump assertion that China tariff talks were under way Some Trump comments are crossing

China’s State Council approved 10 new nuclear reactors, marking the fourth year in a row with at least 10 approvals. China currently has 30 nuclear reactors under construction, accounting for nearly half of all projects worldwide. China is expected to surpass the U.S. as the largest atomic energy producer by the end of the decade.

Trump says Zelensky meeting went well we’ll see what happens in next days he’s very disappointed in Russia wants Putin to stop shooting and reach a deal ‘confines’ of a deal are there This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

U.S. Agriculture Secretary Brooke Rollins spoke in a TV interview over the weekend: CNN’s “State of the Union” administration is having daily conversations with China over tariffs there were ongoing talks between the US and China trade deals with other nations were “very close” “Every day we are in conversation with China, along with those

Equites, futures and bond marekts will be closed on Tuesday in Japan. — Shōwa Day is a public holiday in Japan celebrated every year on April 29. It marks the birthday of (the late) Emperor Shōwa (Hirohito), who reigned from 1926 to 1989. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

Chinese authorities will hold a press conference on Monday to announce further measures to prompt economic growth and employment. Present will be officials from the: National Development and Reform Commission Ministry of Human Resources and Social Security Ministry of Commerce People’s Bank of China Scheduled for 10 Beijing time on Monday, April 28, 2025. Which

China’s industrial profits YTD rose 0.8% y/y in Q1, reversing the 0.3% decline in the first two months, but face ongoing pressure from U.S. tariffs for March month alone profits were +2.6% y/y Consumer goods sectors like wearable devices and kitchen appliances saw strong profit growth due to government stimulus. External risks (intensifying trade disruption),

Japan top currency diplomat Mimura: “Completely unture” about media report that US Treasury Sec Bessent said stronger yen preferable No Talks About FX Target held during US-Japan FinMin talks Atsushi Mimura is Japan’s vice finance minister for international affairs, AKA ‘top currency diplomat’. Japan’s finance ministry is the relevant authority in Japan for ordering intervention

As is usual for a Monday morning, market liquidity is very thin until it improves as more Asian centres come online … prices are liable to swing around, so take care out there. Indicative rates, only a little change from late Friday: EUR/USD 1.1366 USD/JPY 146.34 GBP/USD 1.3297 USD/CHF 0.8299 USD/CAD 1.3872 … an awful

Last week, major US retailers including Walmart, Target and Home Depot met with the White House. Shortly afterwards, the stock market turned around, leading to an extremely strong week in the S&P 500. Today, Hong Kong based Ming Pao (a reputable newspaper) reports from the Canton Fair, which is an import/export fair and reported that:

US stocks end the week with a four day win streak Feds Semi-annu Anderson al survey: Risks to global trade are the most frequently cited risk What are the key economic events on the calendar next week Earnings calendar: Microsoft, Meta, Amazon, Apple, McDonald’s, Starbucks, Coca-Cola Crude oil futures settle at $63.02 EU Comm. Dombrovski:

The earnings calendar heats up next week with the number of big-name releases including Coca-Cola, Pfizer, Starbucks, Microsoft, Meta, Amazon, Apple, McDonald’s, Exxon Mobil, and Chevron on scheduled to release. Below is the full list of some of the bigger names on the schedule. Monday, April 29 Before Open: Domino’s Pizza (DPZ) MGM Resorts (MGM)

Reuters ECB sources report that a consensus is building for a June rate cut. At the moment the market is pricing in 71% chance of a cut but it looks like the ECB wants to bump that up, given that this report cites six sources. The report notes that data has been deteriorating but also

At the turn of the year, it looked like a certainty that Conservatives would form a large majority in this year’s Canadian election but Trump changed everything. His harsh tariffs on Canada and unceasing 51st state talk upended the focus on housing/immigration/culture and put it squarely on sovereignty. Conservative leader Pierre Poilievre struggled to strike

🔴 Risks to global trade are the most frequently cited risk to the U.S. financial system, according to new Federal Reserve survey 🔴 Fed says growing stablecoin sector remains subject to run risks 🔴 Fed says bank funding vulnerabilities in line with historical norms 🔴 Fed says funding markets were resilient through early April’s market

The major US stock indices close the week with a four day when streak. Monday’s declines of over 2.5% were erased on Tuesday. The gains from Wednesday Thursday and Friday were icing on the cake. The NASDAQ index outpaced the other major indices with a gain of 6.73%. .For the day, the NASDAQ rose 1.26%

Monday, April 28 Canada Federal Election (All day) Tuesday, April 29 U.S. JOLTS Job Openings (Forecast: 7.48M; Prior: 7.57M) Australia CPI q/q (Forecast: 0.8%; Prior: 0.2%) Australia CPI y/y (Forecast: 2.3%; Prior: 2.4%) Australia Trimmed Mean CPI q/q (Forecast: 0.6%; Prior: 0.5%) China Manufacturing PMI (Forecast: 49.8; Prior: 50.5) Germany Preliminary CPI m/m (Forecast: 0.4%;

Crude oil futures settled $63.02. That’s up $0.23 or 0.37%. For the trading week, the price fell -1.03%.. The high was at $64.83. The low was at $61.05. Last Friday the price closed at $63.68. This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

Sector Overview The US stock market is exhibiting varied performances across different sectors today, with some emerging as bright spots while others face challenges. The standout performer is undoubtedly the consumer cyclical sector, where Tesla (TSLA) impresses with a gain of 4.15%. This surge can be attributed to optimism in the electric vehicle market and

The EURUSD stretched higher in the US session, but after reaching a high price of 1.1388, and getting within four pips of its 200-hour moving average, buyers turned to sellers and have pushed the price back lower. The current price is trading at 1.13727 after reaching a post-high low price of 1.1364. Yesterday, the price

Markets not enthusiastic about Trump’s remarks Trump: China’s Xi has called him How have interest rate expectations changed after this week’s developments? SNB’s Schlegel: Economic slowdown in Switzerland cannot be ruled out Thai Commerce Minister: Thailand will eventually be able to negotiate tariffs with the US ECB’s Holzmann: Next policy steps are completely open China

EU Commissioner Dombrovski is on the wires saying: Had cordial and candid meeting with United States Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent Reiterates that the EU is going to reach a mutually agreeable solution with US on tariffs. He also emphasized the need for continued support for Ukraine This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

Pres. Trump says: Will Not drop China tariffs unless they give us something Opening up China would be a big win We will have deals for others. We will set the tariff I noted there would be a transition Iran sitution is coming out well. The deal is simple…they can’t have a nuclear weapon. People

Gold Futures Analysis – tradeCompass for June 2025 Contract (April 25, 2025) Gold futures (GC) have entered a captivating phase, retreating from an all-time peak of 3,509.9 reached earlier this week. As we head into today’s trading session (Friday, April 25), market dynamics offer intriguing possibilities for scalpers and short-term traders alike. Market Context: Bearish

Here’s your TradeCompass article in a polished F1-style format: 📈 ES Futures Analysis for Today: VWAP Test Underway, Order Flow Signals Caution Prediction Score: +4 (Mild Bullish Bias) ES Futures are making a cautious move higher after bouncing from support near 5492.25, but order flow shows buyers encountering resistance around the VWAP zone. With Delta

Next policy steps are completely open. Tariff net impact so far rather disinflationary. I see economic scars even if tariffs are lowered. He’s generally a hawk, but these comments are rather dovish. This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at www.forexlive.com.

The NASDAQ index is hitting new intraday highs, currently up 134.13 points (+0.78%) at 17,300.82. In the process, it has broken above a key target level at 17,238, which had served as support in mid-March (March 11, 13, and 14 — see red circles). The index is also trading above the April 9 high of

Closing changes on the day: German DAX, +0.8% France’s CAC +0.5% UK’s FTSE 100 +0.1% Spain’s Ibex +1.3% Italy’s FTSE MIB +1.4% On the week: German DAX, +4.9% France’s CAC +3.5% UK’s FTSE 100 +1.6% Spain’s Ibex +3.4% Italy’s FTSE MIB +3.7% The market is betting that Trump will walk back tariffs and avoid a

Pres. Trump is speaking and says: We will be reasonable on tariffs. Thinks markets are adjusting to tariff policy Trump is heading to Rome for the funeral of Pope Francis tomorrow. He also has said that many world leaders are looking to speak with him there. This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

In yesterday’s video, ” Watching the old floor which is now a ceiling for the USDCHF” I spoke to the resistance area between 0.8333 and 0.8373. That area was an old floor going back to the low in January 2015, the low from December 2023 the lows from September 2024. Breaking a floor, turns it

German DAX futures +0.2% UK FTSE futures +0.1% This follows the positive murmurs from US-China relations since overnight, with Trump touting a vague meeting with China alongside reports of tariff exemptions being worked out. S&P 500 futures are also marked higher as such, up 0.5% on the day. In turn, the dollar is catching a

Oil rigs +2 to 483 Nat. Gas +1 to 99 Total rigs +2 to 587. Crude oil is trading up $0.21 or 0.32% at $63.00 on the day. For the trading week, the price is down $0.70 or -1.11%. The high price this week reached $64.83. The low price was at $61.55. Last week the

Goldman Sachs’ chief economist Jan Hatzius argues that despite the dollar’s recent 5% decline, it remains significantly overvalued and poised for further depreciation. Structural portfolio imbalances and elevated valuation levels point to a multi-year adjustment. Key Points: Overvaluation Still Extreme: The dollar remains nearly two standard deviations above its long-term real average since 1973. Comparable

All parties called for the strengthening of dialogue and policy coordination All parties support the construction of a more-stable, efficient and resilient int’l financial architecture Economic fragmentation and trade tensions continue to disrupt the industrial supply chain and weaken the momentum of global growth Major economies should strengthen participation in policy coordination At present, China’s

Fed watcher, Nick Timiraos of the WSJ is tweeting that comments from Fed’s Hammack on Thursday are not really saying a June rate cut is forthcoming. The qualifier is “if”. Whenever there is an “if” it means a condition or more likely conditions still need to happen and they can be for than one, a

The major European indices are closing higher on the day and for the week: German DAX, +0.78%. For the week, the index soared 4.86% its best week since January 2023 France’s CAC +0.48%. For the week the index is up 3.48% UK’s FTSE 100 +0.06%. For the week index is up 1.69% Spain’s Ibex +1.32%.

USTR Greer: it is constantly engaged with Japan, other countries in substantiative technical talks focused on improving reciprocal trade Pres. Trump ultimately will determine whether to proceed with alternative arrangements for countries that could eliminate or reduce current 10% duties This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

BOE Greens: We are not sure if weakness in UK economy is caused by demand or supply She is more worried about supply, really week productivity growth. There are concerns about impact of the government budget changes. We have no idea what US tariffs will look like when the dust settles. We are seeing in

The week started off poorly with a 3% drop in US equity markets but there has been a rapid and powerful turnaround. The S&P 500 is on track for its fourth consecutive day of gains with a 0.3% rise today. The index is at its session highs going into the weekend on hopes (expectations?) that

The GBPUSD remains within the confines of MAs after test of the 100 hour MA found wiling sellers. Looking at the price action on the chart above, the price remains between its 200-hour moving average below at 1.32946, and it’s 100 hour moving average above at 1.3323. The price over the last few days has

⚡️Nasdaq Futures: Buyers Step In After Stop-Hunt Below VWAP Price Action Update – April 25, 2025 Order Flow Prediction Score: +5 (Bullish Bias, Moderate Confidence) After a sharp drop below VWAP (~19339), Nasdaq Futures are showing early signs of a bullish reversal. The move appears to be a stop-hunt, shaking out weak longs before a

China’s Xi has called him. His administration in active talks with Chinese to strike a deal. Crimea will stay with Russia. Would consider it a victory if US has 50% tariffs a year from now. I wasn’t worried during April bond stress. Predicts Saudi Arabia will go into the Abraham accords. Bessent and Lutnick didn’t

US and China are not having any talks on tariffs. US should stop creating confusion. Here we go again… In the interview with Time, Trump said that Xi called him. This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at www.forexlive.com.

Canada retail sales for February came in as expected -0.4% but was stronger ex autos (the auto industry had a tough month). Forward-looking to the preliminary March data, the expectations are for a solid increase of 0.7%. The data has helped to push the CAD modestly higher (the USDCAD lower), but the pair remains between

The NZDUSD fell late Wednesday, with bearish momentum carrying the pair down to its 200-hour moving average during the Asia-Pacific session. That level held as support, attracting buyers who helped lift the price higher through the European session. The rebound took the pair back above its 100-hour moving average, currently at 0.59786—a level that was

The AUDUSD extended higher on Monday, Tuesday, and Wednesday, but each rally stalled within a key swing area resistance between 0.6429 and 0.6442. This zone has consistently capped upside momentum throughout the week. It was initially defined going back to November and December of 2024. It wasn’t until this week that the price returned to

The Kremlin is reporting that : US envoy Witkoff met with Russian Pres. Putin for three hours Talks were constructive Talks brought the sides closer on Ukraine and other questions. There was a discussion of renewing negotiations between Russia and Ukraine. We know from previous comments this week and from the Time magazine article released

Did Xi call or not call? Oft times, being the strongest, the most powerful, the alpha matter most to Trump and also for Chinese Xi as well. It seem is the case with regard to “who calls who” The FT is reporting that Several people familiar with the situation from Washington and Beijing say Xi

Fundamental Overview It looks more and more likely that gold reached an inflection point this week. The price continues to edge lower as more and more positive news on the trade front filter through. Trump delivered some key comments late Tuesday where he not only sounded much less hawkish on China but also made clear

Prior month -0.6% This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

Thailand will eventually be able to negotiate tariffs with the US, get the most benefits. Exports may be bumpy but not bad this year. US officials satisfied with Thailand taking steps to tackle circumvention. Thailand to keep good relations with both US and China. Hope negotiations with US won’t take long to reach agreements. Thai

China said to weigh exempting some US goods from tariffs as costs rise Japan April Tokyo CPI ex-fresh food +3.4% vs +3.2% expected Japan’s Ishiba: Decided on a package of measures to deal with US tariffs Japanese finance minister Kato met with Scott Bessent today Ueda: Uncertainty regarding global economy rising, must scrutinize impact on

Alphabet will announce its earnings after the close. Analysts expect Alphabet to report year-over-year growth in both revenue and earnings. FactSet consensus estimates EPS at $2.01, a 6.3% increase from $1.89 a year ago. Revenue is projected at $89.2 billion, up 10.8% from $80.5 billion in the prior year. Alphabet’s all-time high was reached on

Prior month 57.0 University of Michigan sentiment final April 52.2 versus 50.8. Prior month 57.0 Current conditions 59.8 versus 56.5 estimate. Preliminary 56.5. Prior month 63.8 Expectations and 47.3 versus 47.1 estimate. Preliminary 47.2. Prior month 52.6 inflation expectations 1 year inflation expectations 6.5% versus 5.0% last month. Preliminary 6.7% Five year inflation expectations 4.4%

Crude oil futures settled at $62.79 on the day, gaining $0.52 or 0.84%. The modest rise reflects a market still searching for direction, as traders weigh near-term supply dynamics and broader macroeconomic uncertainty. From a technical perspective, the hourly chart shows crude largely trading between its key moving averages. The 100-hour moving average currently sits

We are seeing some risk-off flows in the markets at the moment. Two key Trump’s remarks could be what’s weighing on the sentiment. The first one is his answer to the question whether he would consider it a victory if the US still had high tariffs by the end of the year like 20% or

The major US indices are set to open lower but off their lowest premarket levels. The futures are currently implying: Dow industrial average -100 points S&P index -4.25 points NASDAQ index -33 points. Entering into today, the major indices are higher for the week: Dow industrial average +2.43%. S&P index +3.83% NASDAQ index +5.40% Alphabet

The economic calendar start off with Canadian retail sales for February to be released at 8:30 AM. Canada retail sales expectations -0.4% versus -0.6%. Ex autos -0.4% versus +0.2% University of Michigan sentiment for April will be released at 10 AM ET with expectations of 50.8. That is down from 57.0 last month but equal

We might be seeing a US dollar catch-up trade in Asia. The dollar struggled in Thursday’s US session even as stocks rallied and Treasury yields fell. It was a breakdown of the recent Buy America/Sell America correlation but today in Asia we’re seeing signs that it’s being re-asserted, albeit delayed. The dollar is 30-45 pips

FBS, a leading global broker, presents its latest market analysis exploring the recent Bitcoin downturn and the broader outlook for the cryptocurrency market in 2025. Despite a 28% price drop since the beginning of the year, FBS analysts suggest the current market phase is part of a broader correction and potentially an early stage of

The USD is higher with gains vs all the major currencies to start the US session. IN the video above, I take a look at the 3 major currency pairs – the EURUSD, USDJPY and GBPUSD – from a technical perspective. EURUSD: The EURUSD tried to extend back above the 200- hour MA at the

Rate cuts by year-end Fed: 83 bps (92% probability of no change at the upcoming meeting) ECB: 61 bps (75% probability of rate cut at the upcoming meeting) BoE: 85 bps (97% probability of rate cut at the upcoming meeting) BoC: 43 bps (51% probability of no change at the upcoming meeting) RBA: 117 bps

It’s a pretty empty day on the economic calendar front with just the Canadian Retail Sales and the final UMich report as the main highlights. The market is not focused on the data though, so we will likely see little to no reaction to the releases. The focus remains on tariff related news. The expectations

According the Chinese Embassy, China in the US are not having talks on tariffs US should stop creating confusion This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

Prior was -19 The UK GfK Consumer Confidence Index tracks how confident people feel about the economy and their personal finances. GfK is a German market research firm that conducts the monthly survey. This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

Economic slowdown in Switzerland cannot be ruled out. Trade policy situation is creating high uncertainty for all countries, including Switzerland. Price stability cannot prevent trade policy related uncertainty, but still very important. Trade policy could fragment global economy. Main instrument is interest rate, but we can also use forex interventions to influence monetary conditions. The

Prior 97 Manufacturing confidence 99 Prior 96 Services confidence 98 Prior 97 Despite an improvement in both industry and services sentiment, the French business climate remains gloomy in April as retail trade conditions worsened. Some good news is that the employment climate indicator is also seen improving slightly – up to 97 from 96 in

Gold is trading $18 higher early in Asian trading to $3366. It rose as high as $3370 to briefly top the Asian peak from yesterday in a sign of solid demand. Earlier this week, gold hit a record high above $3500 but that led to a powerful round of profit taking into Wednesday’s trading in

Amid fears of the tariffs war getting worse, gold surged higher earlier in the week and briefly clipped the $3,500 mark. Some profit-taking there and hopeful optimism on US-China relations then led to a retreat, which accelerated to a drop below $3,300 on Wednesday during US trading. But as the dust settles a bit, we’re

Prior +1.0%; revised to +0.7% Retail sales +2.6% vs +1.8% y/y expected Prior +2.2% Retail sales ex autos, fuel +0.5% vs -0.4% m/m expected Prior +1.0%; revised to +0.7% Retail sales ex autos, fuel +3.3% vs +2.2% y/y expected Prior +2.2%; revised to +1.8% That’s a decent beat on estimates, though it comes with a

Instructed cabinet members to do the utmost to aid SME’s that will be affected He’s talking about domestic help here, not counter-tariffs. This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

China and US are not having any consultations or negotiations on tariffs. On tariff exemptions on some goods: I’m not familiar with specifics, I refer you to competent authorities. Just yesterday, Trump said that they had a meeting with China in the morning. According to the Chinese, he’s not telling the truth. The market is

Tariff wars and trade wars have further affected economic and financial stability All parties should further improve the international economic and financial system by strengthening multi-lateral cooperation All parties should pool more resources for Africa’s development There isn’t really anything notable here on the trade war. This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

To maintain abundant liquidity and strengthen support for the real economy Will create structural monetary policy tolls and new policy-based instruments to expand consumption Will focus on stabilising employment, market expectations Necessary to increase income of low and middle-income groups Will accelerate the integration of domestic and foreign trade Necessary to continuously improve policy toolbox

As we look to end the week, once again the impact of the option expiries should be relatively muted. There are some big ones but they aren’t sitting too close to the current spot levels. The dollar is holding up ahead of European trading amid some positive murmurs as US and China look to be

The major US stock indices are closing with solid gains for the third day in row. The S&P index and NASDAQ indices both closed up over 2% with the NASDAQ index up 2.74%. The final numbers are showing: Dow industrial average rose 4 and 86.83 points or 1.23% at 40,091.40 S&P index rose 108.93 up

It looks like they’re starting to produce lists of exclusions for specific categories But have not yet seen any official announcement or policy on exclusions Some member companies have said that they have been able to bring in goods without tariffs being levied on them in the past week China commerce ministry is one of

First reading above 3% since July 2023 Prior was +2.4% Overall CPI 3.5% vs 2.9% prior Ex food and energy 2.0% y/y vs 1.1% prior Ex food and energy +0.7% m/m vs +0.4% prior USD/JPY was trading higher by 27 pips to 142.90 ahead of the report. This is a yen positive (i.e. USD/JPY negative)

Here is a chart from Craig Fuller at FreightWaves — a freight data company. It shows last year’s trend in outbound freight (green) and overlays this year. It shows a 15% decline since February and ongoing deterioration, with the index 10% below a year ago. “The freight data is warning about for the direction of

Here is a good chart from Deutsche Bank that highlights several actual recessions and several times where a decession looked likely and how far the SP 500 fell in those situations. Looking at it, the market has fallen far enough already to indicate the market is concerned about a recession but if we were to

There are two separate reports on China tariffs. The first from Bloomberg says China is weighing exempting some US goods from tariffs. It’s not exactly comprehensive though: “Authorities are considering removing the additional levies for medical equipment and some industrial chemicals like ethane, the people said … Officials are also discussing waiving the tariff for

ECBs Knot is saying: Medium-term impact of tariffs on inflation is unclear. Way too early to take a position if June occurred or a hold This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

Cross-asset correlations have broken down this year. The old risk-on/risk-off trade has been dead for awhile as the market sorts through the implications of the US trade war. That’s often been replaced by a Buy America/Sell America dynamic where we see US stocks, bonds and the dollar move in tandem. Today there were strong binds

To closely review Alaska LNG project I’m not really sure what ‘common ground’ means in this case. I find the idea of the US rebuilding its ship building capacity to be really difficult to get my head around as it would take years just to assemble the workforce and there is no scope where US-built

Open to negotiate on non-tariff barriers, explore bilateral trade agreement, strengthen tech safeguards and security Will explore alternative ways to address US concerns Will ensure mutually beneficial trade flows between Malaysia and US continue These are fairly boilerplate comments but highlight a willingness to negotiate, which is true of most countries. This article was written

Eamonn is off today because it’s a holiday in Australia and New Zealand so I’ll be sitting in for Asian trade. The main data highlight comes at 0030 GMT (8:30 am in Tokyo) with the release of April Tokyo CPI for April. Excluding fresh food, it’s expected to rise to 3.2% y/y, which should provide

Canadian retail sales are due on Friday and expected to show a 0.4% m/m for the February reading but the real test will be the advance March reading, which doesn’t have a consensus estimate. The best clue we have is from the RBC report on its card data. We saw signs that Canadians are pulling

The Japanese yen and euro have both chalked up impressive year-to-date gains of around 12% against the US dollar, Bank of America argues that the yen’s rise is more flimsy. BofA notes: The yen’s rally has been disproportionately driven by speculative positioning The euro’s rise has been more persistent than JPY’s across daily market regimes

Kato told Bessent that US tariffs are deeply regretful The US and Japan to communicate closely on FX No talk with Bessent on whether recent FX moves are disorderly The disappointment in Monday markets was due to reports that Japanese officials had left Washington confused and wondering what the US wanted in a trade deal.

The Canadian finance minister Champagne is speaking and says: G7 are united but tensions remain around tariffs. Canadian leadership is needed to maintain unity of G7 We need to fight against the US tariffs which are still affecting a large portion of Canadian goods. In an uncertain world, fundamentals of Canada offer confidence for future

Major US stock indices close higher with the S&P and NASDAQ both up over 2% Crude oil futures settled $62.79 ECBs Knot: Medium term impact of tariffs on inflation unclear Pres. Trump: Will meet with world leaders in Rome Canadian finance minister Champagne:G7 are united, but tensions remain around tariffs US treasury sells 44 billion

Uncertainty regarding global economy heightening Must scrutinize impact on business confidence We will scrutinize without pre-conception whether our forecast will materialize looking at various data that will become available We will look at various data, particularly those related to how tariffs affect economy Wants to focus on sustainably, stably achieving BOJ’s 2% inflation target Central

I’m worried that with the uncertainty, businesses will do layoffs Not seeing an uptick in layoffs yet Some businesses say they are scenario planning for potential layoffs if uncertainty lasts A resolution of trade frictions would relieve uncertainty, would be optimistic This is really just thinking out loud. The market is pricing in a 66%

Pres. Trump is speaking in the White House and says: Think will be very difficult to get Crimea back Both Russia and Ukraine one peace now Don’t think Russia is an obstacle to peace We are using a lot of pressure on both countries Russia has offered to stop the war, and stopped taking the

Working Capital Management: Balancing Liquidity and Operational Efficiency Working capital is the lifeblood of a company’s day-to-day operations. Managing it well ensures the business can meet short-term obligations, maintain operational stability, and avoid unnecessary borrowing. Poor working capital management, on the other hand, can lead to cash flow crises — even for profitable firms. In

The FT is reporting that Trump will to exempt carmakers from some US tariffs more to come FT is gated, but the gist of it is that Trump is expected to ease back on some of his toughest tariffs affecting the auto industry. intends to exclude car parts from the China-focused tariffs tied to fentanyl

Major European indices are closing mostly higher. The one exception is Spain’s Ibex. Look at the closing levels shows: German DAX, +0.49% France’s CAC +0.27% UK’s FTSE 100 +0.05% Spain’s Ibex -0.22% Italy’s FTSE MIB +0.96% As European traders look for the exits, US stocks remain higher led by the NASDAQ index Dow industrial average

China, US not yet in talks on tariffs. Respect is condition for any talks to happen. US needs to stop threats if it wants talks. US ‘tariff tsunami’ breaks WTO rules. There’s nothing new here as Trump continues to show willingness to ease the trade war and make a deal but doesn’t want to call

The USD is lower vs. the 3 major currency pairs a day after a run lower after Pres. Trump and his administration threw out trial balloons that tariffs vs China would not be sustained and that other deals with Japan and India are close. However, they called the deals “memorandums of understanding” or a broad

For what it is worth (more of some of the rehash from yesterday). FoxBusiness Gasparino it X’ing Trump White House is informing senior Wall Street executives of a near-term trade agreement in principle with India. Sources are senior Wall Street execs with connections to the White House. No specific timing details yet; past efforts with

Prior month 1.0% revised to 0.9% durable goods orders 9.2% which is the highest level since July 2024 when it rose 9.8%. Nondefense capital goods orders ex-air 0.1% versus 0.2% expected Prior nondefense capital goods orders ex-air -0.3% (revised from -0.2% Ex transport 0.0% versus +0.3%. Prior month 0.7% Ex defense +10.4% versus +0.8% per

The USDCHF moved higher yesterday, reaching its highest level since April 10 with a peak at 0.8310. However, bullish momentum stalled just 23 pips short of a key resistance area—an old weekly chart floor that now acts as a ceiling. This level has become a critical barometer for short-, medium-, and long-term bias. Staying below

Trump says There was a meeting this morning with China No other details were shared. US stocks get a modest bounce off of the headlines This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

The Reserve Bank of Australia next meet on May 19- 20 In summary from Australian ‘big four’ bank Westpac, bolding is mine: Lock it in, no need to wait for the CPI: RBA Monetary Policy Board expected to cut by 25bps at its 20 May meeting. For the past several quarters, the near-term outlook for

Canada PM Carney speaking to Pres. Trump’s comments on not wanting Canadian cars: We decide what happens here The remarks are more proof that Canada’s old relationship with the US is over Yesterday, Citadel CEO Ken Griffin has publicly criticized President Trump’s tariff policies, asserting that they are eroding the global perception of the United

Pres. Trump thinks Putin will listen to him and stop strikes in Ukraine. VP J.D. Vance, in comments shared by the White House, revealed that the U.S. has made a clear proposal to both Russia and Ukraine aimed at ending the conflict. The proposal involves establishing new territorial boundaries roughly aligned with current front lines,

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USDCAD moved higher on Wednesday, breaking above both its 100- and 200-hour moving averages (blue and green lines on the chart above) —a bullish technical development. Notably, this marked the first sustained move above the 200-hour moving average since April 9. Back then, the pair briefly breached the level before reversing sharply and trending lower,

Fundamental Overview The USD got a boost from the positive Trump’s comments on China late Tuesday. We saw the bullish momentum holding yesterday but it started to wane as disappointing news started to filter through. We see stronger reactions to positive news because of overstretched positioning, so that will likely continue to be the case

Government Bonds: Why They’re Safe and How to Use Them in Your Investing Strategy In earlier articles, we’ve learned about bond ratings and credit spreads. Now let’s focus specifically on government bonds: why investors view them as safe, how they work, and how you can practically use them in your investment approach. This article covers:

High yield 4.123% WI level at the time of the auction Tail versus six-month averages 0.2 basis points versus six-month average of -1.1 basis points Bid to Cover 2.55X vs six-month average of 2.67X Directs (domestic buyers) 25.44% vs six-month average of 20.6% Indirects (internations buyers) 59.3% versus six-month average of 69.7% Dealer 15.3% vs

Speaking on CNBC, BOE Bailey says: We see impact of tariff uncertainty coming through two business investment and consumers. Impact of tariffs on exchange-rate has not been that large for the UK. We are focused on the growth shock from tariffs. I don’t think UK economy is close to recession. Last GDP data was quite

The global economy is teetering on the edge of a full-scale trade war, and the crypto markets are already feeling the tremors. With sweeping new tariffs rolled out by the United States in 2025 and rapid retaliation from China and the European Union, the economic landscape is shifting fast. Investors, analysts, and policymakers alike are

Any content about China-US economic and trade negotiations is ‘groundless and has no factual basis’. There have not been economic and trade negotiations between China and US. This is just a warning to distrust any media leaks about negotiations or deals between the two given that the two countries have not spoke about these topics.

Initial jobless claims 222K vs 222K expected Prior 215K (revised to 216K) Continuing claims 1.841M vs 1.875M expected Prior 1.885M (revised to 1.878M) Still solid data with no weakness in sight. Continuing claims are a good barometer for permanent job losers and they improved. All in all, nothing to see here, the labour market is

ECBs Rehn” Tariffs have dampening effect on inflation in short to medium-term. Fiscal spending will only have effect from 2026 onwards This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

Finance Magnates Africa Summit, Africa’s premier trading summit, is set to return for another edition on the 29th and 30th of May. This year’s edition, FMAS:25, will take place in Cape Town for the first time in the summit’s history. The strategic move to South Africa’s financial hub is a solid indicator of the event’s

📈 Tech Stocks Lead the Charge: Strong Gains Across Sectors Highlight Market Optimism Today’s U.S. stock market is painting a vibrant picture of optimism, spearheaded by significant gains in the technology sector. Investors are responding positively to a slew of upbeat earnings reports, driving broad-based gains across multiple sectors. Let’s delve into today’s market landscape

Yesterday, both the NASDAQ and S&P 500 indices tested their 200-hour moving averages but encountered selling pressure near those levels, leading to a late-day pullback. Today, the tone has shifted more positive, with both indices rebounding. The NASDAQ index has broken back above its 200-hour moving average (currently at 16,987.04), reaching a new session high

Cleveland Fed Pres. Beth Hammock speaking on CNBC says: Uncertainty is weighing on businesses. Influences planning on spending and employment Wish I had a crystal ball on implications on tariffs Cone of possibilities for economy are so wide. Does not have basecase right now. Is looking at snares for economy I would rather take our

The Atlanta Fed GDPNow growth estimate for Q2 adjusting for exports and imports of gold failed to -0.4% from -0.1% previously. The unadjusted GDP forecast came in at -2.5% down from -2.2% on April 17. The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the first quarter of 2025 is -2.5

What the Canadian election this weekend means for CAD ICYMI – South Korea Q1 GDP unexpectedly contracts, boosting rate cut expectations Japan finance minister Kato told the G7 that US tariffs are highly disappointing Nissan has scrapped development of two EVs planned to be produced in Mississippi plant “Lock it in: RBA to cut 25bps

The magnitude of the market reaction to a repricing in expectations is generally driven by positioning. Say we are in risk on, so risk assets generally rally together like equities, commodities, commodity currencies and so on. The magnitude of the moves in each market is determined by positioning. If one of those markets is let’s

Prior month manufacturing index 1.0 Manufacturing index for April. -5 versus 1.0 last month Composite index for April -4 versus -2 last month The manufacturing index had a low -13 in February. The high price for the year was at +1 last month. Looking at the chart above, the price is near the middle of

US posts notice on some China tariff levels. Notice applies to low-value imports from China and Hong Kong. With blanket tariffs of 145% on all China imports, if it were to persist, it would be a very bleak Christmas season especially for the less fortunate. The report does not put a tariff level on the

There are consequences to actions. Boeing has said that they could hand over some of aircraft to other carriers, but at the end of the day, the tariff action is causing disruptions for businesses. China should do all he can to stop Fentanyl….Yes. This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

Prior 86.7 Current assessment 86.4 vs. 85.4 expected Prior 85.7 Expectations 87.4 vs. 85.0 expected Prior 87.7 These are certainly better figures than feared given the trade uncertainty. It shouldn’t be a surprise though given that the German PMIs showed the same yesterday and they are correlated with the IFO. This article was written by

Japan services PPI is AKA the Corporate Services Price Index (CSPI) Comes in at 3.1% in March up from 3.0% in February ** Japan Services Producer Price Index (PPI) measures the average change over time in the prices received by service providers (in the private sector) for their services in Japan Data published by the

Fed’s Waller on Bloomberg: The general tone is many companies are frozen by tariff uncertainty. Firms are trying to see how two navigators. It wouldn’t surprise me to see more layoffs, higher unemployment. Smaller tariffs will have minus pass-through. We need better control of budget deficit. No obvious reason why tariffs should be off table

Disinflationary forces are there because of the Euro and energy. Trade policy uncertainty has been on radar since summer. There’s reason for longer-term optimism on the economy. The European economy is growing and showing resilience. The economy should be growing, despite trade negatives. We can’t get ahead of ourselves on any path for economy. The

Gold has kept on rising almost uninterruptedly for most of 2025, recording a series of new all-time highs. Since October 2022, the metal’s price has almost doubled, having risen by more than 25% in 2025 alone, hitting a fresh all-time high of $3,500 per ounce on April 22. A $4,000 price level, once dismissed as

There are reports that: Apple is struggling to ship manufacturing equipment to India from China It moved subassembly lines back to China from India due to quality and cost concerns It is unable to use Chinese firms for production in India due to geopolitical tensions Shares of Apple are trading down -0.37% in premarket trading

Solvency Ratios: How to Evaluate a Company’s Long-Term Financial Stability Solvency ratios help investors assess whether a company can survive over the long term. They reveal how much debt a company carries and whether it has the financial muscle to meet future obligations. While liquidity ratios deal with the short term, solvency ratios are about

Federal Reserve Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack: There has to be a high bar for Fed to step in to aid markets Market should set where term premium stands Uncertainty is a big issue in economy, it’s causing businesses to pause Economic uncertainty prompting business caution We have not seen the need for Fed market

Rate cuts must wait for more tariff certainty. There was a broad consensus around lowering rates, but some disagreement at the margins. It wasn’t clear yet to what extent tariff countermeasures were being taken. There may be further cuts this year, but the number is still outstanding Says that while various scenarios remained possible with

A White House statement says that the European Union fine on Meta and Apple is a novel form of economic extortion and will not be tolerated. Only yesterday Trump said the EU was not taking advantage any more, see the pic, about a third of the way down. Now they are back being naughty again?

Sless Prior month 4.26M revised to 4.27M Existing home sales lower at 4.02M annualized pace versus 4.13M estimate. The prior month was revised marginally higher to 4.27M Decline -5.9% after rising 4.4% last month inventory/sales 4.0 months supply This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

Why market positioning is a key ingredient to trading performance FMAS:25 – Africa’s Largest Trading Summit ECB’s Rehn: ECB shouldn’t rule out larger interest rate cut Russia says Zelensky has categorically refused to make any concessions Germany April Ifo business climate index 86.9 vs 85.2 expected China Commerce Ministry: There haven’t been trade negotiations between

Efficiency Ratios: Measuring How Well a Company Uses Its Resources Efficiency ratios reveal how effectively a company uses its assets and manages its operations. While profitability and solvency tell you what a company earns and how it funds itself, efficiency ratios uncover how it gets there. These metrics are particularly useful for comparing operational quality

U.S. told Japan it cannot give Japan special treatment regarding tariffs during talks held earlier this month, NHK says citing multiple Japan govt sources Headline via Reuters This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

Fairly certain inflation effect will be stronger in the US than in Europe. The effects of tariffs on growth will be significant in Europe and Germany. This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at www.forexlive.com.

White House reportedly mulling cutting China tariffs to de-escalate trade war White House would look at lowering tariffs pending talks with Beijing Bessent: No unilateral offer from Trump to cut China tariffs US Treasury Sec Bessent says Trump administration wants to help China &U.S. rebalance Several OPEC+ members want the group to approve another accelerated

Nikkei report, via Reuters: Nissan decided to scrap development of two electric vehicle models in the U.S. Nissan scrapped development of two sedan EV models planned to be produced in its Mississippi plant from 2028 This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

ECB shouldn’t rule out larger interest rate cut. There are a few good reasons to pause rate cuts. Economic risks are starting to materialise. We must retain full freedom of action, be agile. There’s a risk of the ECB easing too much amid tariff uncertainty. If the US reverses its policies or at least gets

Practical Strategies for Managing Your Portfolio Through Economic Cycles Understanding economic cycles—periods of growth and recession—can help you manage your investments wisely. Every economy experiences these ups and downs, and knowing how to react in each stage can help protect and grow your money over time. In this article, we’ll explore: The different stages of

Reuters on comments from a senior International Monetary Fund (IMF) official: Bank of Japan likely to push back timing of further rate hikes if IMF’s reference scenario materializes Japan’s inflation likely to converge to BOJ’s target sometime in 2027 rather than in 2026, as initially expected Balance of risks is to the downside for Japan’s

The IMFs Georgieva is saying: Says world economy is facing a new and major test with depleted buffers Says China needs to reduce imbalances and shift to consumption Says trade-offs will be toughest for low income countries Says countries need to watch data for inflation pressures and adjust policy accordingly Says central bank independence is

ECBs Nagel is speaking on business television and says We are fairly certain that inflation effect of terms will be stronger in the US than in Europe. The effects of tariffs on growth will be significant in Europe in Germany. This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

This is via an ING note: Canada holds a federal election on 28 April amid a fierce debate on how to face Trump’s tariffs. Polls and betting odds project that Liberals, led by PM Mark Carney, will win with an absolute majority. This scenario is likely priced in by markets, and should have a limited

PrimeXBT, a regulated multi-asset broker, has expanded its offering with the introduction of stock CFDs, allowing clients to trade shares of major global companies with greater flexibility. The move is part of a broader strategy to give clients access to more markets and asset classes within the same trusted trading environment. The expansion introduces some

Its been face plant after face plant from Trump, a face save would be very welcome news for the economy. This from respected journo Charles Gasparino: This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

Reports say that Japan is to resist Trump efforts to form trade bloc against China, which is Trump’s strategy to force a deal with China. We are seeing more and more countries stepping up their tone as the US now looks much weaker than it looked just a couple of weeks ago. This is also

Russia says Zelensky has categorically refused to make any concessions or to discuss the status of Crimea. Says Zelensky’s approach shows he wants to fight the war until the last Ukrainian. Russia accuses European ‘hawks’ of encouraging Zelensky to continue the war regardless of casualties. Says European countries are afraid of the prospect of a

Trump says it depends on China how soon tariffs can come down: have spoken to 90 countries regarding tariffs already over the next 2 – 3 weeks will set tariff for China If we don’t make a deal, we’re just setting the price, then they can decide if they want China is not doing any

The comment is from Germany’s finance minister, Joerg Kukies. He had earlier in the day say that it is urgent to try and reduce tariffs uncertainty but as things stand, it remains to be seen when we will be getting any concrete negotiations between the US and EU. And even so, there’s not telling how

This was always going to be the danger when the SNB sought to cut interest rates to 0.25% just before the whole tariffs/trade war blew up in the past two months. In its latest note, Nomura is now forecasting two more 25 bps rate cuts by the SNB this year. That opposed to their previous

The U.S. Commerce Department has initiated a national security investigation under Section 232 into imports of medium- and heavy-duty trucks and their components. The review aims to determine whether these imports threaten national security, potentially leading to new tariffs. The investigation focuses on foreign-made work trucks and parts. If deemed a security risk, the government

German DAX futures -0.1% French CAC 40 futures -0.3% UK FTSE futures -0.1% This comes with US futures also losing steam, with S&P 500 futures now down 0.4% on the day. Trump provided some optimism earlier in the week that he will be “very nice” to China and that tariffs will come down. But yesterday,

Good morning, afternoon and evening all. Any charts, technical analysis, trade ideas, thoughts, views, ForexLive traders would like to share and discuss with fellow ForexLive traders, please do so: This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

Prior 92 The reading is unchanged relative to March as household confidence keeps below the long-term average of 100 still. There hasn’t been much improvement in sentiment since the turn of the year, with unemployment prospects keeping on the higher side notably. This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

So we have the Treasury Secretary and White House spokeswoman saying this but she is also saying that it’s up to Trump on what the China tariff rate will be. That gets to the heart of the issue: Even if they’re saying this, Trump often changes his mind. You used to be able to assume

ECBs Muller in an interview says: Too soon to tell whether June will be a cut or a pause Monetary policy is no longer restrictive. Rates may need to be cut below neutral on trade concerns This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

UBS has warned that Trump’s renewed calls for lower interest rates risk further eroding confidence in the Federal Reserve’s independence — a dynamic markets are increasingly wary of. In a note to clients, UBS analysts argued that the looming slowdown in the U.S. economy is being driven more by a surge in uncertainty than by

The Fed’s Beige Book is due out at 2 pm ET. This should be an interesting edition as it should outline some challenges around tariffs and the potential for falling orders. This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland President Beth Hammack: big uncertainty over the outlook continues to argue for the Fed taking it slow on monetary policy to see how the economy performs “This is not a good time to be pre-emptive” with monetary policy “This is a good time to watch and watch” and gather data

China is preparing to remove sanctions on several Members of the European Parliament (MEPs) as part of efforts to revive its long-stalled investment agreement with the European Union. A spokesperson for European Parliament President Roberta Metsola confirmed that talks with Chinese officials are nearing completion and that she will brief parliamentary group leaders once the

Trump threatens higher tariffs on Canadian car imports, escalating trade tensions warned that the existing 25% tariff on Canadian car imports could be raised pushing his interest to bolster U.S. auto production and reduce dependence on foreign-made vehicles “We don’t want your cars … we want to make our own” ** Canada is a major

CNBC with the report, in brief: A dozen states sued President Donald Trump and his administration, seeking a court order declaring that his new tariffs are illegal. “The president does not have the power to raise taxes on a whim, but that’s exactly what President Trump has been doing with these tariffs,” New York Attorney

Ryan Petersen from Flexport today highlights that it’s been 3 weeks since large US tariffs were put on China and that ocean container bookings are down over 60% across the industry. He notes that the US imports $600 billion in goods (though I think the correct number is $460 billion) from China annually and those

There are no winners in tariffs and trade wars The fact that China is airing such commentary doesn’t really suggest we’re moving closer to bridging the gap. Today, Xi is welcoming President Ruto of Kenya in Beijing. The optics continue to show that while Trump hammers down on China on trade and tariffs, Xi is

As it’s been the case since April 2, the data won’t matter much for the markets as they remain focused on trade negotiations progress. There’s one economic report though that could move the markets, and that is the US Jobless Claims data. The US Jobless Claims continue to be one of the most important releases

Eamon Javers from CNBC is reporting tha the Chinese embassy has issued a statement addressing U.S.-China trade negotiations, emphasizing the following points: China’s “doors are open” if the U.S. genuinely wants to engage in talks. If the U.S. seeks a negotiated solution, it must stop threatening and blackmailing China. Constructive dialogue should be based on

MUFG expects the European Central Bank to resume easing in June, arguing that a wide range of disinflationary forces leave little justification for delaying a return to neutral policy settings. The bank anticipates a 25bp cut next month, likely accompanied by a downgrade to the ECB’s official inflation forecasts. euro area inflation now facing well-defined

Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland President Beth Hammack speaks before the Money Marketeers of New York University Supports ongoing quantitative tightening (QT), a slower drawdown pace will allow longer process Fed’s balance sheet has shrunk from $9T to $6.8T since QT began in 2022 Money market liquidity still appears abundant Supported Fed’s recent slowdown in

Japan economy minister Akazawa to visit the U.S. for tariff talks from April 30. NHK confirmation of this from yesterday Japan economy minister Akazawa could visit U.S. for tariff talks as early as April 30 I posted this pic of him in that linked post above, he’s in the hat! This article was written by

There aren’t any major expiries to take note of on the day, though there are some large ones for EUR/USD and USD/JPY that could factor into play on any notable price extensions. But for now, they are sitting some distance away from the current spot prices. As such, trading sentiment will continue to be dictated

As National Economic Council Director Hassett he is Trump’s head adviser on the economy: says USTR has 14 meetings scheduled with foreign trade ministers received 18 written offers from foreign trade ministers China open to talks Don’t get too optimistic on this sort of guff. On Wednesday US Treasury Secretary Bessent admitted that a full

The National Development and Reform Commission of the People’s Republic of China (NDRC) has trimmed the number of items on its negative list from 117 to 106 The Negative List for Market Access (2025 Edition) has been approved by the CPC Central Committee and the State Council and will be issued and implemented from now

People’s Bank of China USD/CNY reference rate is due around 0115 GMT. The People’s Bank of China (PBOC), China’s central bank, is responsible for setting the daily midpoint of the yuan (also known as renminbi or RMB). The PBOC follows a managed floating exchange rate system that allows the value of the yuan to fluctuate

South Korea’s economy shrank 0.2% q/q in Q1 expected + 0.1% Its first quarterly contraction since mid-2024 and missing forecasts for modest growth. Exports fell 1.1% (were + 0.8% in Q4 2024) private consumption also weakened amid growing concerns over U.S. tariff impacts The data strengthens the case for further rate cuts, with the Bank

The People’s Bank of China (PBOC), China’s central bank, is responsible for setting the daily midpoint of the yuan (also known as renminbi or RMB). The PBOC follows a managed floating exchange rate system that allows the value of the yuan to fluctuate within a certain range, called a “band,” around a central reference rate,

UK Chancelor of the Exchequer Reeves is no the wires saying: UK will not rush trade talks with the U.S. UK will not relax food standards to secure a U.S. trade deal UK borrowing data reinforces the importance of controlling public finances UK announces measures to prevent future dumping of unfairly priced imports UK will

High yield 3.995% WI level at the time of the auction 4.005% Tail -1.0 basis points vs. six-month average of 0.1 basis points Bid to cover 2.41X vs 6 month average of 2.40X Dealers 11.12% versus six-month average of 12.1% Direct 24.8% vs average vs six-month average of 17.7% Indirect (international) 64.04% vs six-month average

Trump says 25% tariff on cars from Canada could go higher: we don’t want cars from Canada has spoken to Canadian Prime Minister Carney, we’ve had nice conversations working on a deal with Canada dollar is a bit on the low side not considering changes to auto parts, auto tariffs (contradicting this from earlier: The

Japan finmin Kato: US tariffs, countermeasures are creating uncertainties in financial market told G7 US tariffs are highly disappointing Stressed that free trade regime promotion important Constructive policy discussion important refrains from comment on Bessent’s foreign exchange remarks This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

While not the data calendar, Trump is likely to be speaking at 5pm US Eastern time on Wednesday (2100 GMT). We’ll get the services PPI from Japan today, for March 2025. AKA the Corporate Services Price Index. Its unlikely to be yen mover much upon release. The Reserve Bank of Australia Bulletin is published quarterly

The AUDUSD is tilting more bearish after falling below its 100-hour and 200-hour moving averages in today’s trading. The break below the 100-hour MA (currently near 0.6395), combined with a failure to stay above the previous ceiling near 0.6390, signaled growing downside pressure. That ceiling had previously acted as resistance multiple times, as highlighted by

Trump spoke from the Oval Office: Trump says it depends on China how soon tariffs can come down More on Trump threatening higher tariffs on Canadian car imports Earlier, from minions, placing a cross hairs back on the EU: Trump admin says the EU fine on Meta and Apple will not be tolerated Globex is

The US is backtracking on tariffs at the moment but you wonder how much lasting damage has been done and if investors will trim US exposure. Goldman Sachs has been highlighting the same trend. Confidence in the US policymaking landscape isn’t particularly high at the moment. This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

After the major US stock indices tumbled on Monday with declines of -2.5% and greater, the last two trading days have seen solid gains. Today’s move was helped by hopes for turf reprieves and from comments from Pres. Trump that he does not going to fire “Too Late” Powell. Looking at the major indices Dow

More from ECBs Knot: Not concerned about prospect of stronger EUR and smaller current-account surplus The EURUSD has traded to the highest level going back to November 2021 this week (the high price on Monday reached 1.15726).. At the start of the session today, the price fell sharply to a low of 1.1307. The current

Uncertainty around international trade policy was pervasive A few more districts than previously reported declines in employment Several districts reported firms taking a “wait-and-see approach to employment” while others are actively “preparing for layoffs.” The outlook in several districts worsened considerably as economic uncertainty around tariffs rose Prices increased across districts, similarly to the prior

Crude oil futures is settling at $62.27. That is down $1.40 or -2.20%. There was a report earlier today that several OPEC+ members want the group to approve another accelerated oil output increase for June at meeting on May 5. The news sent the price to a low for the day at $61.55. That low

Some of the earnings after the close include: ServiceNow (NOW) Q1 2025: EPS $4.04 (BEAT; exp. $3.85), Revenue $3.09B (MET; exp. $3.08B). Shares are up 7.67% Chipotle Mexican Grill (CMG) Q1 2025: EPS $0.28 (MET; exp. $0.28), Revenue $2.88B (MISS; exp. $2.95B). Shares are down -5.15% in after-hours trading IBM (IBM) Q1 2025: EPS $1.60

Dive into the intersection of cryptocurrency and forex trading. Learn how Bitcoin’s price swings, accessed through MoonPay’s platform, can amplify forex strategies. Discover practical steps to integrate BTC transactions into your trading toolkit. Stay ahead in 2025’s dynamic markets. Bitcoin’s meteoric rise past $100,000 in 2024 has forex traders buzzing. Its volatility, once a deterrent,

Fed’s Musalem does not speak on the economic outlook in speech text. Waller also does not comment on economy or Fed policy in his remarks. This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

The USDCAD has moved higher in the North American session, breaking back above a key swing area between 1.38078 and 1.38499 (highlighted by the red numbered circles on the chart). The rally has taken the pair up to a session high near 1.3890. On the 4-hour chart, the next upside target comes into focus near

Manufacturing PMI 48.0 vs 47.6 expected and 48.3 prior Services PMI 48.8 vs 50.2 expected and 50.9 prior Composite PMI 49.7 vs 50.4 expected and 51.3 prior Key findings: HCOB Flash Germany Composite PMI Output Index 4-month low. HCOB Flash Germany Services PMI Business Activity Index 14-month low. HCOB Flash Germany Manufacturing PMI Output Index

US Treasury Secretary Bessent at the IMF conference says IMF, World Bank serve critical roles in international system. U.S. administration is eager to work with IMF and World Bank as long as they stay true to their missions. No one who financed or supplied the Russian war machine will be eligible for funds earmarked for

Prior was +0.1% The new housing pipeline in Canada is completely drying up, at least in the condo market. This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

I’ve been seeing lots of people complaining about the lack of market reaction to economic data. This is something I’ve been warning about every day since April 2. Here’s the thing about economic data. The data is by definition backward looking but the market is a forward looking machine. To trade economic data successfully, one

The S&P 500 continues to fade negative news and rally strongly on positive developments. This is a signal that the market is looking forward to more de-escalation and eventually trade deals as Trump continues to cave in. We bottomed on April 9 when we reached the peak in escalation and Trump paused the tariffs for

The USDCHF surged higher on Wednesday following comments from former President Trump on China and on Fed Chair Powell (he will not be fired… today), pushing the pair through recent highs and up to test the 38.2% retracement of April’s trading range at 0.82809. That level held, and the pair rotated back lower. This comes

Services PMI 48.9 vs 51.5 expected and 52.5 prior Manufacturing PMI 44.0 vs 44.0 expected and 44.9 prior Composite PMI 48.2 vs 50.4 expected and 51.5 prior. Key findings: Flash UK PMI Composite Output Index at 29-month low. Flash UK Services PMI Business Activity Index at 27-month low. Flash UK Manufacturing Output Index at 32-month

Speaking at the IMF conference, Bank of England Bailey is saying: Fragmenting the world economy will be bad for growth. UK is an open economy so US relation with the rest of the world matters. We do have to take very seriously the risks to growth. China has had sustained a week household domestic demand,

Even the most seasoned CFD traders can fall into psychological traps—from chasing the hype to holding poor trades out of stubborn hope. Emotional biases can cloud judgment and lead even experienced traders to costly blunders. However, psychological resilience reduces the risk of a loss. Octa Broker, as part of its commitment to traders’ education, explores

The broader US stock indices are trading higher on the day but trading at session lows. The S&P index is up 76.57 points or 1.44% at 5363.16. The high for the day reached 5469.69 the NASDAQ index is up 375 points or 2.29% at 16671.80. The high for the day reached 17029.86 At session highs

It remains all about the tariffs as Trump has folded on his campaign against Jerome Powell, and evidently in his campaign against China. That has S&P 500 futures op 2.3% on top of yesterday’s 3% gain. I don’t think that economic data or central banks speak will be what derails that today but it will

Tariffs would leave a persistent decrease in output In the near term, inflation might fall faster than March projections due to energy and uncertainty Global supply chains could put upward pressure on prices in the medium term Dynamics of underlying inflation are looking good at the moment Before US tariffs announcement I would have favored

The USD moved higher in the early Asian Pacific session as the ups-and-downs from Pres. Trump continued. He eased rhetoric on China which was the topic yesterday after comments from Treas Sec.Bessent that the standoff with China — which he said was essentially an embargo — is unsustainable and that he expects it to de-escalate.

Crude oil inventories +0.244M vs -0.770M estimate gasoline inventories -4.476M vs -1.375M estimate Distillates -2.353M vs -0.028M estimate Cushing -0.086M vs a drawdown of -0.654M last week. The private data released late yesterday showed drawdowns in each of the major components: The price of crude oil is currently down around one dollar at $62.42. The

Prior month 50.2 Manufacturing PMI 50.7 versus 50.2 last month Services PMI flash for April 51.4 versus 52.5 estimate. Prior month 54.4 Composite index 51.2 versus 53.5 last month. This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

Says would not be surprised if China-US tariffs went down in a mutual way Declines to comment on earlier WSJ story Tariff rates are unsustainable Does not have time frame for start of China talks, will have to take place at lower levels than Trump-Xi With India, we are very close to a tariff deal

This is not the right way to deal with China and it is not feasible US should conduct dialogue with China on the basis of equality and mutual benefit This continues to allude to the notion that Trump looks to be negotiating with himself for the most part when it comes to the China commentary

The Mexican peso and stock markets have done well this year even as the growth outlook dims. Yesterday the IMF downgraded Mexican GDP forecasts and now the World Bank sees no growth at all this year as it now sees 0% GDP growth compared to 1.5% in January. Other LatAm changes: Brazil to 1.8% from

The NZDUSD pushed to a new high today—its highest level since November 2024—before stalling near a key swing area between 0.6031 and 0.6045, which also includes the 61.8% retracement of the decline from the late September 2024 high, coming in at 0.60357. After failing to break through that resistance zone, the pair rotated lower and

Fed’s Garparino: This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

Rate cuts by year-end Fed: 83 bps (92% probability of no change at the upcoming meeting) ECB: 59 bps (70% probability of rate cut at the upcoming meeting) BoE: 92 bps (99% probability of rate cut at the upcoming meeting) BoC: 42 bps (55% probability of no change at the upcoming meeting) RBA: 119 bps

CNBC reported earlier that the White House would not cut tariffs unilaterally, but after discussion and a deal with China. A headline from the White House is now confirming that saying: White House would look at lowering tariffs on Chinese imports pending talks with Beijing Any steps would be in conjunction with China talks, not

This is an interesting note from the WSJ’s Lingling Wei who notes that Chinese Presidents nearly never pick up the phone. Despite repeated signaling from the American president for his Chinese counterpart to call, Xi isn’t calling. The Chinese might tell you that’s just not how China works. The only instance in recent memory when

Prior 47.9 Manufacturing PMI 48.2 vs 48.0 expected Prior 48.5 Composite PMI 47.3 vs 47.8 expected Prior 48.0 French business activity is seen contracting at a slightly faster pace in April, with the services and composite readings missing on estimates. The impact of tariffs and trade uncertainty is yet to be felt and will likely

The GBPUSD is under pressure once again, with sellers now pushing the pair toward a critical test of the 200-hour moving average (green line), currently near 1.32527. This level marks a key battleground for short-term control. Earlier in the Asian Pacific session the price low fell but stalled at that MA level. That increased the

Canada has been awash with talk of US boycotts since the start of the trade war. It’s a theme that’s consumed the Canadian election, which will take place on Monday. What’s harder to quantify is the actual impact on spending and travel. Today, Statistics Canada released its cross-border report for February and it shows a

Understanding Profitability Ratios And What They Can Tell Investors Profitability ratios are among the most commonly cited tools in fundamental analysis. But beyond the numbers, these ratios tell powerful stories about a company’s strategy, efficiency, scalability, and ability to compete. In this guide, we’ll unpack the most important profitability ratios, how to interpret them in

Chicago Fed Pres. Goolsbee is speaking and says: Increase in productivity growth appears to be a technology driven boom Fed Governor Waller and St. Louis Fed Pres. Musalem are speaking at a St. Louis Fed event at around 9:35 AM ET. US stocks are higher in premarket trading. The futures are continuing it premarket moved

IMF: Says increased tariffs to push global public debt to GDP ratio up by 2.8 percentage points in 2025 to 95.1% of GDP Global debt levels may top 117% of GDP by 2027 if revenues and output decline more significantly than current forecasts due to tariffs Fiscal monitor projects global public debt to reach 99.6%

The EURUSD has moved back below its 200-hour moving average, which currently sits at 1.13919. The initial break occurred during the Asian session following fresh comments from President Trump on trade and from Fed Chair Powell. The pair then rebounded in the European session, rising toward the 100-hour moving average at 1.14336, where sellers re-entered

The Wall Street Journal is gated, but Reuters have the gist of the report: US will aim for the U.K. to reduce its automotive tariff from 10% to 2.5% US will also push UK to relax rules on agricultural imports from the US, including beef, and revise rules of origin for goods from each nation

Prior month 0.674M New home sales rise by 7.4% on the month after a 3.1% gain last month This is the highest level since May 2023 Median sale price -7.5% to $403,600 down from $436,400 Northeast -22.2% Midwest +3.0% South +13.6% West -1.4% home supply 8.3 months at current pace versus February’s 8.9 months This

Sector Overview Today’s market paints a vibrant picture, led by a robust recovery in the technology sector. Heavyweights Microsoft (MSFT) and Apple (AAPL) have posted gains of 3.38% and 3.65%, respectively, while Nvidia (NVDA) surged by 5.53%, marking a significant upswing in semiconductor stocks. In a remarkable display, the consumer cyclical sector has also outperformed,

Trump has lost his credibility with markets, so take these with a grain of salt: Trump, asked if he’ll play hardball with China: no China, other countries have to make a deal If they don’t make a deal, we’ll set the deal This is a transition period Tariff on China will not be as high

Tesla earnings: Revenue of $19.335B vs $21.111B expected US equity close: Turnaround Tuesday as stocks get back to flat on the week The gold reversal will be tested in Asian trading Goldman Sachs: Bullish GBP/USD but cautious on GBP vs. European FX Crude oil futures settled $64.31 US trade deals said not to be imminent

The US dollar continues to recoup some of yesterday’s losses. It’s coming with strength in stocks and some light bids in bonds. The euro rose to as high as 1.1573 yesterday but it’s sagged to 1.1429 today, which is about 40 pips from Friday’s close. In my opinion, this reveral has come on some flimsy

The People’s Bank of China (PBOC), China’s central bank, is responsible for setting the daily midpoint of the yuan (also known as renminbi or RMB). The PBOC follows a managed floating exchange rate system that allows the value of the yuan to fluctuate within a certain range, called a “band,” around a central reference rate,

0200 The governor of the Bank of England, Andrew Bailey, and the chief economist of the European Central Bank, Philip Lane 0600 ECB policymaker Klaas Knot speaks about “Monetary policy and the euro in an uncertain world” at the Peterson Institute 1515 Participation by ECB Board member Philip Lane in panel session “Central Bankers’ Dilemmas

Shanghai Gold exchange has increased the trade margin for some gold futures contracts Not bullish, at the margin. Gold had managed to retrace the losses on Trump’s comments earlier: Trump said had no intention of firing Fed Chair Powell (he did). Major reversal from Trump Trump backing away from tariffs, backing away from firing Powell

The world economy is in a very delicate situation. We need a better understanding of how to find compromise on tariffs. Tariffs are not a good policy, that’s for sure. This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at www.forexlive.com.

The times are in GMT/US Eastern time format: 1300/0900 Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago President Austan Goolsbee speaks virtually before the Economic Mobility Summit sponsored by the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia 1335/0935 Federal Reserve Board Governor Christopher Waller and Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis President Alberto Musalem give opening remarks before a “Fed

According to sources Several OPEC+ members want the group to approve another accelerated oil output increase for June at meeting on May 5 The price of crude oil futures have moved lower on the headlines. The price is now down $-1.54 at $61.93. That is down around 2.5% on the day. This article was written

The Wall Street Journal sources is reporting that the White House was reportedly mulling cutting China tariffs to de-escalate the trade war. 35% tariff on nine strategic items 100%+ tariffs on goods tied to national security phased in over five years This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

This article was written by Christian Borjón Valencia (Tradepedia for XM.com). Trading and investing have become increasingly accessible to the general public, mainly due to the availability of online platforms. This has led to the development of innovative financial instruments, notably Contracts for Difference (CFDs) and traditional stock investments. While both can generate capital gains

Japan Jibun Bank PMI Manufacturing April 2025 Preliminary prior 48.4 Services 52.2 prior 50.0 more to come Composite 51.1 prior 48.9 This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

The global Cryptocurrency market is projected to experience significant growth in the coming years, reflecting a steady rise in international interest in digital currencies. This has led to many FX & CFD brokers to offer derivatives on Cryptocurrencies, providing traders with alternative ways to engage with the market. However, only some brokers currently support digital

Prior 51.0 Manufacturing PMI 48.7 vs 47.5 expected Prior 48.6 Composite PMI 50.1 vs 50.3 expected Prior 50.9 It’s a mixed report but overall it shows that euro area business activity basically ground to a halt in April. An improvement in manufacturing activity is the only bright spot, with output levels at its highest in

The market has an insider trading problem, or at least the perception of one. This administration started with a memecoin pump and it’s been downhill from there as Trump’s tweet about a crypto reserve was clearly front run. Earlier this month there was a suspicious pump from Trump before he abandoned the ‘reciprocal tariffs’ and

Putin remains open to contacts with Europeans and Ukraine in the interest of finding a settlement. It has no contacts with Europeans or Ukraine. Asked about possible Moskow visit by Trump envoy Witkoff, says it has nothing concrete to say on the subject for now but will say more if and when there is news.

A Reuters polll of economists shows: BOE to cut rates by 25 basis points each 2:45 .75% by the end of 2025. Same as the March poll. BOE to cut the bank rate by 25 basis points to 4.25% on May 8. The result is unanimous (67 economists polled) UK GDP growth to average 0.9%

There is just one to take note of on the day, as highlighted in bold. That being for EUR/USD at the 1.1400 level. That might offer some attraction in keeping price action more centered around the figure level in the session ahead. But as has been the case in the past two weeks, there are

Australian preliminary PMI from S&P Global for April 2025: 51.7 prior 52.1 Services 51.4 prior 51.6 Composite 51.4 prior 51.6 The big news so far today is this: Trump said had no intention of firing Fed Chair Powell (he did). Major reversal from Trump Trump backing away from tariffs, backing away from firing Powell –

German DAX futures +2.3% French CAC 40 futures +1.0% UK FTSE futures +0.8% This keeps with the mood from US futures, with S&P 500 futures seen up 1.6% as well. There is some hints of optimism after Trump’s comments yesterday, but have things really changed? I for one am not convinced, not least with Trump’s

US MBA mortgage applications w.e. 18 April -12.7% vs -8.5% prior Kremlin: Putin remains open to contacts with Europeans and Ukraine to find a settlement Positive Trump’s comments make traders pare back some agressive easing bets UK April flash services PMI 48.9 vs 51.5 expected Eurozone April flash services PMI 49.7 vs 50.5 expected Germany

National interests take priority over OPEC+ interests when it comes to oil output levels. Kazakhstan cannot reduce oil output from old oilfields, as it would destroy them. Cannot order oil majors to cut output either. This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at www.forexlive.com.

Prior -8.5% Market index 233.5 vs 267.5 prior Purchase index 153.4 vs 164.2 prior Refinance index 673.6 vs 841.9 prior 30-year mortgage rate 6.90% vs 6.81% prior This is never a market moving release. Of course, as long term interest rates rise, mortgage applications fall. The mortgage market index and the US30Y yield are inversely

BMW will integrate Chinese startup DeepSeek’s AI into its new vehicles sold in China from late 2025. The move aims to enhance in-car intelligence and user experience for local consumers. It reflects BMW’s broader strategy of partnering with regional tech firms to align with China’s innovation ecosystem. AI is viewed as key to driving future

This is a notable shift, or the seeds of a shift from Barkin. This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

Non-GAAP adjusted EPS 0.27 vs 0.38 expected GAAP EPS 0.12 Gross margin 16.3% vs 15.9% expected Operating margin 2.1% Adj net income of $934m vs $1.431B exp Tariff landscape will have larger impact on energy business compared to autos Plans for new vehicles, including more affordable models, remain on track for start of production in

Fundamental Overview It looks like gold reached an inflection point yesterday. After a strong rally on Monday, the precious metal erased all the gains and eventually fell to new lows. Trump delivered some key comments late yesterday where he not only sounded much less hawkish on China but also made clear that he has no

Liquidity Ratios: How to Measure a Company’s Ability to Survive the Short Term Liquidity ratios are essential for assessing a company’s financial health—especially its ability to meet short-term obligations. These ratios are a critical lens for evaluating financial risk, particularly during periods of volatility, recessions, or when investing in companies with tight cash positions. In

Generally, the world of cryptocurrency is underutilized. While adoption is still low, the introduction of new tokens and blockchain solutions helps to better the chances. Crypto presales are a great opportunity for these new assets to launch, and for many beginners to jump in early before the projects get attention in the global markets. A

Reuters convey the info from a JP Morgan note: forecast gold prices above US$4,000 per ounce by 2026 average $3,675/oz by 4Q25 risks skewed towards an earlier overshoot of these forecasts if demand surpasses its expectations “Underpinning our forecast for gold prices heading towards $4,000/oz next year is continued strong investor and central bank gold

Bloomberg citing an unnamed “person with knowledge of the matter.” Bloomberg is gated, in brief: Intel to announce plans this week to cut more than 20% of its staff This will be around 20K lay offs. The firm laid off around 35K just a few months ago. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at

Trump and Chinese President Xi to meet in early May. Via social media sources citing Reuters. Trump dialled back his tariff policy in China, some describing it as his latest cave in: Trump’s China reversal – now we await China’s response (if any) More: Trump said had no intention of firing Fed Chair Powell (he

The news of all of the Trump reversals is here: Trump backing away from tariffs, backing away from firing Powell – will it last? Trump says he has no plans to Fire Federal Reserve Chair Powell Trump says he is going to be very nice to China, they have to make a deal US equity

Trump finally decided to tone down his flagrant approach in the tariffs war with his comments from yesterday. But were they as optimistic as one can really take them to be? The positive thing is that he reaffirmed that the US is “going to be very nice to China”. Adding to that is he’s not

Japan economy minister Akazawa could visit U.S. for tariff talks as early as April 30, TV Asahi reports Thats him the hat This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

Trump says he has no plans to Fire Federal Reserve Chair Powell. says he wants Powell to be more active on rates Trump is backpedalling, this a few moments ago: Trump says he is going to be very nice to China, they have to make a deal Trump’s capriciousness has greatly diminished his credibility with

Federal Reserve Governor Kugler on transmission of monetary policy Tariff increases significantly larger than previously expected Economic effects of tariffs and uncertainty likely to be larger than anticipated Supports holding policy rate steady as long as upside risks to inflation continue, while economic activity and employment remain stable Fed policy well-positioned for macroeconomic changes If

The big news as we get into European trading is none other than more Trump headlines. This time around, it looks like he has toned down his brazen stance on trade a little but definitely more so when it comes to firing Fed chair Powell. Let’s take a look at his full remarks on both

The Q1 result from Tesla are here: Tesla earnings: Revenue of $19.335B vs $21.111B expected CEO Musk as been spending his time at his government job instead of focusing on his vehicle business. The Q1 results are bad, but Q2 could be worse as tariff impacts hit. Musk is, at least, beginning to address the

It was a nice rebound from yesterday’s selling and puts main indexes very close to unchanged on the week: S&P 500 +2.5% Nasdaq Comp +2.7% DJIA +2.7% Russell 2000 +2.8% Toronto TSX Comp +1.2% We will take it a day at the time, watch Tesla earnings after the bell. This article was written by Adam

Stock Valuation Using Valuation Ratios: How to Assess If a Stock Is Overvalued or Undervalued Valuation ratios are a critical part of any investor’s toolkit. They help determine whether a stock is trading at a fair price relative to its earnings, book value, sales, or growth potential. But interpreting them requires nuance—especially in different market

Goldman Sachs maintains a constructive view on GBP/USD, citing UK resilience to US trade shocks and European FX strength. However, they advise caution on Sterling relative to other European currencies due to lingering domestic risks. Key Points: GBP/USD Outlook Positive:Sterling continues to benefit from broad EUR FX strength and its lower vulnerability to US tariffs,

How to Link the Three Important Financial Statements: A Practical Guide for Investors Once you understand the balance sheet, income statement, and cash flow statement individually, the next step is learning how to link them together. This is where true financial analysis begins. Linking the statements provides a full picture of a company’s performance, efficiency,

The main highlights today include the Flash PMIs for the major economies and lots of central bank speakers. The data shouldn’t have much of an impact as the markets remain focused on the tariff related news. We had some fresh Trump’s comments late yesterday where he basically folded across the board and to me that

Trump’s comments earlier warned that the U.S. will set the terms of trade if China refuses to reach a deal, but also expressed openness to negotiation and hinted at a partial reduction in tariffs once an agreement is struck. The comments reflect an approach balanced by the possibility of easing some tariffs, though not eliminating

Federal Reserve speakers on Wednesday include Goolsbee, Waller, Hammack and Musalem Shanghai Gold exchange has increased the trade margin for some gold futures contracts Learn Invesgting: Liquidity Ratios Japan economy minister Akazawa could visit U.S. for tariff talks as early as April 30 ECB’s Lane, Knot, and Cipollone speaking on Wednesday, April 23, 2025 BMW

European Central Bank’s Francois Villeroy de Galhau: Trump has signed up the whole world to a “lose-lose game” on trade based on flawed economic arguments Trump’s attack on trade to dampen economic growth, including for the US, and threaten to undermine financial stability Villeroy called for de-escalation to avoid a spiral of rising tariffs “It’s

Trump’s latest reversals are here from a little earlier: Trump backing away from tariffs, backing away from firing Powell – will it last? Trump says he has no plans to Fire Federal Reserve Chair Powell Trump says he is going to be very nice to China, they have to make a deal On China, we

EUR/USD and USD/JPY have pulled right back: The news earlier ICYMI: Trump said had no intention of firing Fed Chair Powell (he did). Major reversal from Trump Trump backing away from tariffs, backing away from firing Powell – will it last? Trump says he has no plans to Fire Federal Reserve Chair Powell Trump says

Federal Reserve Governor Kugler spoke earlier on the transmission of monetary policy, Q&A now: Facing potential shocks now, much related to tariffs and uncertainty I don’t think the public is losing confidence in us We have a lot of trust from the public; inflation expectations are anchored Uncommon for bond yields to go up and

52% of economists expect the BOJ to hike rates to 0.75% in Q3 (previously 70% in March) 84% of economists expect no change at the next two BOJ meeting decisions on 1 May and 17 June 28% of economists see July as the specific month for BOJ to hike rates next 21% of economists see

While the rate will be 1200 or so points lower than this model estimate its bumped up subsatnaitlly today given the Trump boost for the US dollar: Trump said had no intention of firing Fed Chair Powell (he did). Major reversal from Trump Trump backing away from tariffs, backing away from firing Powell – will

IMF Managing Director Georgieva says biggest priority for global agenda is to resolve trade tensions IMF is reviewing how it conducts surveillance of countries’ economies, and designs conditionalities for lending programs IMF is looking at countries that have repeated lending programs, cites Argentina, Egypt and Pakistan IMF will be looking at role of fund and

Via oilprice.com: — Expectations I had seen centred on: Headline crude -0.8mn barrels Distillates 0.0mn bbls Gasoline -1.4 mn This data point is from a privately-conducted survey by the American Petroleum Institute (API). It’s a survey of oil storage facilities and companies The official report is due Wednesday morning US time. The two reports are

Gold has been on a record run for the past two weeks and touched a record $3500 in Asian trading today. The big figure was evidently a cue for some bulls to take profits and that’s been the trend in US trade with it falling all the way to $3373. Even with the nearly $130

Comments from Citigroup’s Chief Economist via a Reuters report ICYMI. In brief: “Tariffs are a stagflationary shock to the U.S. economy” 40% to 45% chance of recession expects Q2 GDP up, driven by consumers making purchases ahead of tariffs coming into effect largest negative impact on U.S. growth is expected during H2 market reaction to

The times listed below are in GMT/US Eastern time format: 0600/0200 The governor of the Bank of England, Andrew Bailey, the chief economist of the European Central Bank, Philip Lane scheduled 1030/0630 Bank of England Chief Economist Huw Pill speaks at the Leeds University Business School 1630/1230 Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey speaks at

Good morning, afternoon and evening all. Any charts, technical analysis, trade ideas, thoughts, views, ForexLive traders would like to share and discuss with fellow ForexLive traders, please do so: This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

Trump’s latest comments have been met with ‘cave in’ comments, which, if true, is great news for markets: Trump says he has no plans to Fire Federal Reserve Chair Powell Trump says he is going to be very nice to China, they have to make a deal Its very naive to disregard the risk that

Argentex, in a London Stock Exchnage statement : said it had been “exposed to significant volatility in foreign exchange rates, particularly in relation to the rapid devaluing of the US Dollar against other major benchmark currencies which has been precipitated by the various recent announcements from President Trump regarding tariff policies and US government spending

I posted a preview of the report yesterday: Big Tesla Tuesday coming up – Q1 2025 results due Tuesday, April 22 And also a special sales offer for China: Tesla offers five-year zero interest financing on refreshed Model Y in China This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

At 2200 GMT/1800 US Eastern time Federal Reserve Board Governor Adriana Kugler speaks on “Transmission of Monetary Policy”. It’s a light calendar otherwise, flash PMIs for April kick off from Australia and Japan. This snapshot from the ForexLive economic data calendar, access it here. The times in the left-most column are GMT. The numbers in

We’re going to be doing this for a long time. Fox Business reporter Charlie Gasparino reports: Bessent & Co scrambling to reach deals with India, South Korea, Japan, Australia; deals said not to be imminent more He also writes that VP Vance becomes “major executor” in trade negotiations to expedite deals with India and other

The price of WTI crude oil futures for May delivery is settling at $64.31. That is up $1.23 or 1.95% on the day. The gains were helped by U.S. Treasury sanctions being imposed on Iranian LPG magnate Seyed Asadoollah Emamjomeh and his corporate network, restricting hundreds of millions of dollars’ worth of Iranian LPG and

Now that Bessent has leaked market moving information, it looks like his team is into damage control. Here’s a thought, Mr Treasury Secretary, how about you stop delivering remarks at private meetings to JPMorgan clients and then there won’t be any confusion? Is that too much to ask? This article was written by Adam Button

Too soon to judge path of interest rates Logical that tariffs are a one-off rise in prices but backdrop of high inflation runs the risk of unanchoring inflation expectations Can’t allow inflation expectations to get unanchored So far long-run inflation expectations haven’t moved much Tariffs are somewhat inflationary and also slow growth Independent monetary policy

In response to the Trump administration’s recent tariff hikes, U.S. importers are increasingly utilizing bonded warehouses to mitigate financial strain. These facilities allow companies to store imported goods without immediate payment of duties, offering flexibility in managing inventory and cash flow.​ Importers can postpone tariff payments until goods are released for domestic consumption, aiding cash

Fundamental Overview The main theme in the last couple of weeks has been the selling of US assets. Stock, bonds and the US Dollar have been under strong selling pressure in what looks like a general deleveraging from US assets in favour of safe havens like gold, which has been printing new all-time highs almost

SwissBorg, a European wealth management app with over one million users, has introduced the Dream Fund campaign, a new initiative that will award *€10,000 each to three selected applicants to support personal, creative, or entrepreneurial projects. The Dream Fund is designed to assist individuals in taking the next step toward their goals, especially where financial

This Bessent fiasco of inside information is unfolding in slow motion. The latest is from CNBC that reports: Source in the room tells me this is a rough transcript of the comments Treasury Secretary Bessent made yesterday at a closed door event that are moving markets today: “The next steps with China are, no one

Pricing partly reflects global factors. Not all market pricing focused on UK. I am more concerned about supply side. Exchange rates haven’t gone as theory suggests. A falling dollar would be disinflationary for UK. Too early to say where dust will settle on dollar strength. There is no sign of shakeout in labour market yet.

Gold was the clear winner of the growing global anxiety caused mainly by U.S. President Donald Trump and his trade wars. Since the beginning of the year, the gold price chart has seen a 30% increase, repeatedly reaching new all-time highs. As is often the case, gold mining stocks have risen in tandem. For instance,

The USDCHF has extended above its 200-hour moving average, currently at 0.81653, making it the first of the major currency pairs to break above both the 100-hour and 200-hour moving averages in this recent correction. Last week, the pair managed to climb above the 100-hour moving average (blue line) on both Thursday and Friday, but

Ahead of meetings in London on Wednesday, Ukraine’s president Ukraine Pres. Zelenskyy says that the Ukraine delegation as the mandate to discuss full or partial cease-fire. He adds: Once a cease-fire is in place, Ukraine is ready for talks with Russia in any format It’s impossible to agree all terms of peace deal quickly. Ukraine

The latest headline that moved markets was from Politico and it was this: White House is ‘close’ on Japan, India tariff agreements — but expect them to be light on specifics That sounds promising, right? Within the story it sounds more like the “the terms of reference to lay down a roadmap for the negotiations”

The EURUSD is moving lower today, helped by a reversal in the recent “Sell the USD” sentiment. U.S. stocks are sharply higher, and Treasury yields are falling across the curve, with the 10-year yield down 3 basis points and the 30-year down 5.5 basis points. Price action in EURUSD has now dipped to a session

The major European indices are closing the day with gains. The one exception is Italy’s FTSE MIB which was down marginally. A snapshot of the closing levels shows: German DAX, +91.04 points or 0.43% at 21,296.91. France’s CAC rose 40.60 points or 0.56% at 7326.47. UK’s FTSE 100 rose 52.96 points or 0.64% at 8328.61.

From the private meeting with Treas. Sec. Bessent China negotiations will be a ‘slog’ Describes current bilateral trade situation as an embargo No one thinks the current status quo between China is sustainable. Therefore there will be de-escalation with China over the very near future. Goal is not to decouple US, China economies US rebalancing

Inflation seen at 2.2% in 2025 vs 2.1% seen three months ago. 2026 inflation forecast at 2.0% vs 1.9%. Growth seen at 0.9% in 2025 vs 1.0% in previous forecast. The impacts of tariffs and defence spending are the main factors behind revisions. This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at www.forexlive.com.

Politico is reporting that the White House says that they are close on Japan and India trade agreement: The White House is closing in on general agreements with Japan and India to stave off massive US tariffs, but they are likely to leave many of the thorny details to be hashed out at a later

There is still no shelter for the dollar in trading this week and we’re starting to see another big level come into play for USD/JPY. The 140.00 mark is a key one on the charts as it also acts as a major psychological level. The lows from September last year held somewhat with the daily

High yield 3.795% WI level at the time of the auction 3.789% Tail 0.6 basis points vs six-month averages -0.4 basis points Bid to cover 2.52X versus six-month average of 2.65X Directs 30.1% versus six-month average of 15.4% Indirects 56.2% versus six-month averages 73.0% Dealers 13.7% versus six-month average of 11.6% Auction grade: C- A

Carious crypto media reported that: BlackRock bought 1000 BTC for its spot Bitcoin exchange-traded fund made from Coinbase Prime wallets Bitcoin update: This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

Watching the shared press conference with Trump and Netanyahu earlier this month, it was easy to believe reports there was a rift between the sides, particularly on Iran policy. Today though, Trump wrote: I’ve just spoken to Prime Minister of Israel, Bibi Netanyahu, relative to numerous subjects including Trade, Iran, etc. The call went very

Changelly, a leading instant cryptocurrency exchange, is celebrating its 10th anniversary and announcing a major milestone: over 10 million users worldwide now trust the platform for seamless crypto swaps and fiat on-/off-ramps. Over the past decade, Changelly has grown significantly and steadily in the turbulent crypto market: now, the platform supports over 1,000 coins across

Lowest since November Prior was -4 Services index -7 vs -4 prior Manufacturing shipments -17 vs -7 prior At some point all this deterioration in sentiment has to lead to worsening economic performance. This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

The US stocks are getting a boost from comments from Treas. Sec Bessent who said that terrible standoff with China is unsustainable, and that he expects the situation to de-escalate. The comments were made within a closed-door investor Summit on Tuesday. The NASDAQ index moved up to 16333.89. The 100 hour moving averages at 16398.11.

In unison The AUDUSD rally yesterday ran into a firm wall of resistance, as price action stalled within a key swing area between 0.64278 and 0.6444. Notably, this zone also includes the 50% retracement of the decline from the October 1, 2024 high, adding to its technical significance. The high price reached 0.6437 before rotating

US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent made significant comments about the ongoing tariff tensions with China at a closed-door investor summit on Tuesday in Washington. According to Bloomberg, Bessent told attendees that the standoff with China — which he said was essentially an embargo — is unsustainable and that he expects it to de-escalate. He said

The times below are GMT / US Eastern time format: 1300/0900 Federal Reserve Vice Chair Philip Jefferson speaks on “Economic Mobility and the Dual Mandate” before the Economic Mobility Summit sponsored by the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia 1330/0930 Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia President Patrick Harker participates in fireside chat on how economic mobility

From analysts at JP Morgan on Trump’s attack on Federal Reserve Chair Powell: Any reduction in the independence of the Fed would add upside risks to an inflation outlook that is already subject to upward pressures from tariffs and somewhat elevated inflation expectations. Moreover, market participants would likely demand greater compensation for inflation and inflation

Consumer goods giant Kimberly-Clark reported Q1 earnings today that reveal several macro themes worth watching and the dynamic of a weakening USD and how that will hurt equities. The maker of Kleenex and Huggies posted a 6% drop in net sales to $4.8 billion, with currency translation accounting for a significant 2.4% of that decline.

Japan’s finance authorities are to ask banks to help support financing at small companies affected by US tariffs Statement from Japanese finance minister Kato via Reuters. Kato is setting up a meeting with US Treasury Secretary Bessent to discuss FX issues This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

General activity (region): -42.7 vs. -32.5 prior General activity (firm level): -26.7 vs. -17.5 prior New orders: -6.9 vs. -19.5 prior Sales/revenues: -7.8 vs. -4.7 prior Full-time employment: -7.2 vs. -7.5 prior Part-time employment: -7.9 vs. 3.5 prior Prices paid: 46.5 vs. 36.0 prior Prices received: -0.1 vs. 8.4 prior Future indicators (six months): General

Trump has been quiet on the tariff front today and with that it’s no surprise that equities have a bid. The S&P 500 has extended its gain to 2% and the gap lower at yesterday’s open is now almost closed. It can all change with a tweet so beware. Some people were pointing out that

Prior was -14.5 This is the lowest since Oct 2023. This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

Interest rates are now within the neutral range. June to depend on data, forecasts and risk outlook. Inflation to reach 2% in the next few months. Time needed to assess risks associated with tariffs. US Trade policy is eroding confidence. We must remain vigilant and agile. Markets are pricing a 72% chance of a 25

USDCHF fell sharply yesterday, decisively breaking below its 100-hour moving average (blue line on the chart above) and extending beneath a key swing area defined by multiple lows from last week between 0.8097 and 0.81288 (see red numbered circles on the chart above). The pair remained below this swing zone for most of the session

USDCAD fell during yesterday’s Asia-Pacific session, breaking below a key swing area between 1.38078 and 1.38499. The initial decline reached a low of 1.37808 before rebounding to a session high of 1.3845, near the upper boundary of the previously mentioned swing zone, which dates back to October and November 2024. The price subsequently rotated lower,

Sector Overview The stock market displayed robust activity today, with the Technology and Consumer Cyclical sectors spearheading a pronounced rally. Leading the charge, Apple (AAPL) surged by 2.36%, followed closely by Amazon (AMZN), which marked a 2.56% increase. Such performance reflects growing investor confidence in the tech and retail giants, likely driven by positive quarterly

The major US stock indice are closing the day with declines close to 2.5% to start the new trading week. Dow Industrial average fell -971.82 points or -2.46% at 28170.41 S&P fell -124.50 points or -2.36% at 5158.20. Nasdaq fell -41.55 points or -2.55% at 15870.90 The small cap Russell 2000 fell -40.30 points or

Yesterday was telling for bitcoin in a potential regime change. It rallied despite a poor day in the Nasdaq in a potential shift in a correlation that’s dominated for the past two years. Today, that move has accelerated but it’s come with a relief rally in risk assets. That’s still a good sign and the

The USD is correcting/consolidating after sharp declines yesterday on a “Sell America Day” yesterday that saw the US stocks get hit, bond prices move lower (yields higher) and the USD tumble. The corrective move have the potential to give dollar buyers small victories, but there is still work to do. The 100-hour MAs remains target

ECB’s Rehn: Great uncertainty is restraining economic activity US VP Vance: India and America have finalised terms of reference for a trade deal Little progress on trade negotiations keeps the market betting on more aggressive easing BoE’s Greene: Pricing partly reflects global factors ECB survey: Inflation seen at 2.2% in 2025 vs 2.1% seen three

India and America have finalised terms of reference for a trade deal. I believe that India and US have much to offer one another. Our administration seeks trade partners on the basis of fairness. We have common goals with India. India and US will co-produce many defence equipment items. India and US both know the

Sees 2025 at 2.8% vs 3.3% in January Sees 2026 at 3.0% vs 3.3% prior 2025 US GDP seen at 1.8% vs 2.7% prior 2026 US GDP seen at 1.7% vs 2.1% prior 2025 China GDP seen at 4.0% vs 4.6% prior 2026 China GDP seen at 4.0% vs 4.5% prior 2025 Germany GDP seen

The USDJPY extended lower today, breaking beneath a critical swing area between 140.248 and 140.80, but quickly rebounded after testing key technical support. Yesterday’s low stalled right at the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the move up from the July 2023 low to the February 2024 high, coming in at 140.483. The price action today confirmed

Prior was +0.4% PPI yy vs 4.9% prior Raw materials price index % m/m vs +0.3% prior Raw materials price index % y/y vs +6.6% prior This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

The main tariff news of the Asian session was a press release from the US Trade Representative highlighting progress on a trade deal with India as JD Vance visited. “I am pleased to confirm that USTR and India’s Ministry of Commerce and Industry have finalized the Terms of Reference to lay down a roadmap for

This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

Rate cuts by year-end Fed: 90 bps (86% probability of no change at the upcoming meeting) ECB: 66 bps (74% probability of rate cut at the upcoming meeting) BoE: 87 bps (99% probability of rate cut at the upcoming meeting) BoC: 46 bps (54% probability of rate cut at the upcoming meeting) RBA: 127 bps

Gold price to a record above USD3430. I’ve posted mutiple times on the drivers, including:’ central banks buying as the reliability of the US and USD increasingly comes into question ETFs buyers geopolitical tension increasing I really should add in short covering … I am seeing an acceleration of people asking me about shorting gold.

ICYMI, the Financial Times carried a report on the holiday Monday, in brief: China’s state-backed funds are pulling back from investing in the funds of U.S.-headquartered private capital firms amid an escalating trade war between the world’s two biggest economies The FT is gated, but in summary: Chinese state-backed funds have stopped making new investments

South Korea will implement smaller tax cuts on oil products from May finance ministry announcement tax breaks will be extended until the end of June rate to be 10% for gasoline, from the current 15% for diesel and liquefied petroleum gas butane to 15% from 23% This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

This morning I was saddened by the death of Pope Francis. Pope Francis was a man of love, of inclusion, of welcoming. That shepherding was based on the gospel – the word of the Lord. He was never above God/Jesus, but he followed the example They gave us. Jesus was sent to change things. He

The new week started with a bang as we saw strong moves across the board in the markets. The main theme remains the “sell America” trade, but bitcoin was a standout as it decoupled from the stock market. Bitcoin is generally correlated with stock market performance given that they have similar macro drivers like future

With each passing day that Trump’s tariffs stay in place, we’re descending further into chaos. Japan was supposed to be the easiest of battles to win in this tariffs war but that’s looking like a crapshoot now. The early indications were there amid the difference in communication between Trump himself and the Japanese side. There

If you’re looking to try and get a feel of the broader market anxiety, look no further than Treasuries. Long-end yields are starting to rise again and that will keep risk sentiment on edge as we look to settle into the week. As things stand, traders and investors are slowly losing confidence on any imminent

Great uncertainty is restraining economic activity. In the short-term, the impact of tariffs on Euro Area inflation is to the downside due to lower demand. Most economist assumed the euro would weaken as a result of tariffs. That has not happened. If China redirects its exports toward Europe due to excessively high tariffs by the

The US dollar has bounced back today and that’s led to a give-back of some of yesterday’s “sell America” trade. I don’t see any game-changers on the economic calendar today as the main highlight is another economic sentiment survey; this time the Richmond Fed manufacturing survey. These have clearly deteriorated as we saw with Empire

We are back to business after the Easter holidays and the playbook hasn’t changed in the markets with US assets getting sold and gold rallying to new highs almost everyday. On the data front, we don’t have anything of note today other than a couple of low tier releases that won’t move the market anyway

1030 GMT / 0630 US Eastern time: Dutch central bank head, and member of the European Central Bank Governing Council, Klaas Knot speaks at the IMF’s Bretton Woods Committee 1700 GMT / 1300 US Eastern time” ECB Board member Luis de Guindos speaks at MIT/ICADE Finance Club in Madrid, Spain This article was written by

Domestic sight deposits CHF 439.7 bn vs CHF 438.4 bn prior There’s not much change in overall Swiss sight deposits in the past week. And that is suggestive of the SNB not being all too active in the market amid the stronger flows still in play, though mostly down to the dollar struggling. EUR/CHF is

German DAX futures -0.8% French CAC 40 futures -0.4% UK FTSE futures -0.6% If you’re just coming back from the Easter break, there’s not much positive developments to behold. US-Japan trade talks didn’t seem to make much progress and Trump is continuing to lambast Powell over his job. Meanwhile, US stocks ended lower yesterday but

Federal Reserve speakers Tuesday include Jefferson, Harker, Kashkari, Barkin, and Kugler Bank of England Deputy Governor Sarah Breeden speaks on Tuesdau – monetary policy Wall Street Journal says Trump Is Laying the Groundwork to Blame Powell for Any Downturn China’s automobile exports +16% y/y in Q1 2025 ECB policymakers Klaas Knot and Luis de Guindos