UPCOMING EVENTS: Monday: New Zealand Services PMI, NY Fed Consumer Inflation Expectations. Tuesday: RBA Meeting Minutes, UK Employment Report, German ZEW, Canada CPI. Wednesday: Japan Tankan, China Industrial Production and Retail Sales, UK CPI, US Retail Sales, US Industrial Production and Capacity Utilisation, BoC Policy Announcement, US NAHB Housing Market Index, Fed Chair Powell. Thursday: […]

China March dollar-denominated exports +12.4% y/y expected +4.4%, prior +2.3% China March dollar-denominated imports -4.3% y/y expected -2%, prior -8.4% China March trade balance $+102.64 billion China Jan–Mar dollar-denominated exports +5.8% y/y, imports -7.0% y/y China Jan–Mar dollar-denominated exports +5.8% y/y China Jan–Mar dollar-denominated imports -7.0% y/y China Jan–Mar trade balance $+272.97 billion This article

Bond Ratings: What They Mean for Investors and Why They Matter If you’re just starting out as an investor, bonds might seem straightforward—but understanding how bonds are rated can help you avoid unnecessary risk and make smarter investing decisions. This article covers what bond ratings are, why they matter to you, and how ratings relate

Oil is green today, which has been a rare occurrence in April. WTI crude oil is up 83-cents to $62.33 as broad sentiment improves on hopes for a phone call between Trump and Xi. OPEC hasn’t wasted any time downgrading its economic view today as it cut its demand growth forecast to +1.3 million barrels

As is usual for a Monday morning, market liquidity is very thin until it improves as more Asian centres come online … prices are liable to swing around, so take care out there. Indicative rates, a little change from late Friday: EUR/USD 1.1294 USD/JPY 144.08 ….. GBP/USD 1.3066 USD/CHF 0.8216 USD/CAD 1.3867 AUD/USD 0.6312 NZD/USD

People’s Bank of China USD/CNY reference rate is due around 0115 GMT. The People’s Bank of China (PBOC), China’s central bank, is responsible for setting the daily midpoint of the yuan (also known as renminbi or RMB). The PBOC follows a managed floating exchange rate system that allows the value of the yuan to fluctuate

These are the US’ closest allies, so you’d expect things to progress a little quicker compared to others. Also, the fact that they’re willing to compromise more I guess. Japan will be speaking with the US later this week as noted here previously. This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

This survey was done before ‘Liberation Day’ 3-year inflation unchanged at 3% 5-year inflation down to 2.9% from 3.0% Households more pessimistic about jobs and future earnings Found accelerating food and rent expected Households more downbeat on finances and credit access Share of households seeing worse financial situation highest since Oct 2023 Expectations for stocks

It’s going to be a boring day in terms of data releases as we don’t have anything on the agenda other than the NY Fed Inflation Expectations survey. Since the UMich survey gets trashed because of the political bias, we’ll see if long term inflation expectations are increasing in this survey as well. Anyway, the

100% not expecting recession Rare earth limits being studied very carefully There are the usual talking points here but it’s tough to take anything seriously from Trump’s deputies as he seemingly changes his mind constantly. This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

The USDCHF broke to its lowest level since 2011 last week, falling beneath a critical long-term support zone between 0.8333 and 0.8373. This multi-year floor had held through several tests over the past decade+, but once it gave way, sellers took control and drove the pair down to a low of 0.8098 before some buying

Trading success often depends on whether or not one can pinpoint potentially profitable assets before sharp price movement. This is particularly evident in crypto, where high volatility is the norm. Technical analysis—analysis is of historical price action and chart patterns—is one of the main methods to predict price direction. Candlestick analysis, a part of technical

China’s Ministry of Commerce responded on Sunday to the Trump administration’s move to exempt certain high-tech products—such as smartphones and computers—from steep reciprocal tariffs, calling it a limited but positive gesture. The ministry said the exemption “represents a small step by the U.S. in correcting its erroneous unilateral approach,” referring to President Trump’s earlier imposition

Xi Jinping calls for deeper China-Vietnam cooperation in industrial and supply chains. Urges expanded collaboration in emerging sectors like 5G, AI, and green development. Begins Southeast Asia tour with a state visit to Vietnam (April 14–15). Promotes regional initiatives like East Asia Cooperation and Lancang-Mekong Cooperation. Xi says trade wars and protectionism offer no solutions,

Could US port traffic really crash this year? The latest Global Port Tracker report from the National Retail Federation and Hackett Associates is subject to whatever tariff regime rules the day but it’s a useful view on how long it will take for tariff effects to truly hit trade. The numbers show a short-term bump

The pause in reciprocal tariffs last Wednesday boosted Bitcoin and risk assets in general as growth fears eased and the market started to look forward to more de-escalation ahead. We also got some exemptions last Friday on tech which helped risk assets but Trump eventually poured cold water on positive expectations as he said that

Headlines: Dollar selling returns to start European morning trade Markets consolidate ahead of Trump’s update on semiconductor tariffs The bond market stays on edge in the new week What are the interest rates expectations for G8FX? China president Xi arrives in Hanoi China welcomes partial U.S. tariff rollback but calls it only a ‘small step’

Fundamental Overview The USD continues to lose ground against most major currencies although the fundamental backdrop remains unclear. The most popular narrative is that everyone is selling US assets, and the greenback is losing its reserve status as a consequence of the aggressive trade war. Such big claims are generally made at tops or bottoms,

Credit Spreads for Investors: Why They Matter for Investors and What Changes Can Mean for Markets When learning about investing, there are many terms that can seem confusing at first. One of those important but straightforward terms is credit spreads. Let’s break down what credit spreads are, why investors should pay attention to them, and

German DAX futures +2.0% UK FTSE futures +1.7% European equities are once again having to play catch up a little, with Wall Street gains on Friday needing to be taken into account. That comes alongside the hopeful optimism today, with S&P 500 futures seen up 1% currently. This article was written by Justin Low at

Traders unwound dollar (USD) exposure last week amid US President Donald Trump’s back-and-forth tariffs, which threaten to undermine confidence in US assets and the economy. While a 90-day tariff reprieve has been granted to most nations, the escalating trade tensions between the US and China pressure global supply chains, potentially fuelling inflationary pressures and slowing

For some context: Citi upgrades US and European equities to ‘overweight’ on tariffs pause At the same time, they are upgrading their view on Japanese equities to ‘overweight’ from ‘underweight’ and downgrading their view on emerging market equities to ‘underweight’ from ‘neutral’. This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

German Chancellor-in-waiting (set to become chancellor in May) Friedrich Merz has warned that Trump’s tariff policies could accelerate the onset of a global financial crisis. In an interview with Handelsblatt, Merz urged a new U.S.-EU free trade agreement, proposing “zero percent tariffs on everything” as a mutually beneficial solution. The EU has already floated a

Japan Prime Minister Ishiba speaking in Tokyo: says cannot make continuous compromises in US talks ASEAN is an critical part of Japan-US economic cooperation This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

Japan finmin Kato: US, Japan share view excessive FX volatility undesirable FX rate to be determined by markets Japan economy minister Akazawa: FX issues will be addressed between finance minister Kato, US Treasury Secretary Bessent A little verbal intervention supporting the yen: This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

The dollar is keeping more mixed ahead of European trading today, with the intense selling from last week cooling off slightly. USD/JPY is still seen down 0.2% to 143.23 but well off the lows of 142.25 earlier in the day. Meanwhile, EUR/USD is flat at 1.1355 currently. While not my favourite indicator of sentiment, the

Rate cuts by year-end Fed: 81 bps (76% probability of no change at the upcoming meeting) ECB: 76 bps (99% probability of rate cut at the upcoming meeting) BoE: 75 bps (93% probability of rate cut at the upcoming meeting) BoC: 40 bps (58% probability of no change at the upcoming meeting) RBA: 118 bps

A second round of nuclear talks between the U.S. and Iran is expected to take place in Rome on Saturday Axios cites two sources “with knowledge of the issue”. More: Trump administration was satisfied with the first round of talks … achieved their objective of shifting the format from indirect —handled through intermediaries — to

Singapore Q1 GDP +3.8% yr/yr vs Reuters poll +4.3% – flash estimate Singapore Q1 GDP -0.8% qtr/qtr seasonally adjusted rate – flash estimate Singapore MTI downgrades 2025 GDP growth forecast to 0.0% to +2.0% Singapore MTI says external demand outlook for Singapore for rest of the year has weakened significantly From the Monetary Authority of

Polling and comments from Citi analysts via a Reuters report: The People’s Bank of China is expected to deliver more monetary easing in the second quarter of 2025, including a 15 basis point cut to the loan prime rate (LPR) and at least a 25 basis point cut to the reserve requirement ratio (RRR), according

After the huge selloff caused by the worse than expected tariffs announcement on April 2 and the surprising production boost from OPEC+, the sentiment in the crude oil market deteriorated meaningfully. The pause in the reciprocal tariffs last Wednesday though marked a short term bottom as growth fears eased on expectations of more de-escalation ahead.

Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari warned that even modest U.S. tariffs could significantly disrupt trade, particularly for farmers. “In many sectors, whether it’s a 10% tariff or 50% or 100% tariff, it has a dramatic effect on the trade flows and so a lot of my folks that I hear from here are quite concerned,”

Earlier on Kato said Japan and the US were in agreement that excess FX volatility was not desired: Japan finance minister Kato says excess forex volatility is undesirable Kato and his US counterpart Bessent in agreement has been enough to drive bids back into the yen: This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

Goldman Sachs cut their targets for Chinese stock indexes for a second time this month 12-month target for the MSCI China Index was cut to 75 from 81 CSI 300 Index was lowered to 4,300 from 4,500 GS cite heightened trade tensions with the US: tension has soared to unprecedented levels concerns about global recession

Rain or shine, there’s no love for the dollar at the moment. The greenback continues to fall out of favour amid all the uncertainty still in play with regards to Trump’s tariffs policy. EUR/USD is now moving up by 0.5% back above 1.1400 and continues with the technical breakout to the upside from last week:

Effects of US tariffs are not yet reflected in current economic indicators The risk of a significant global slowdown has increased considerably That will also have an impact on the German economy Uncertainty about development of German exports is exceptionally high due to tariffs policy Just when you think the German economy might be turning

The People’s Bank of China (PBOC), China’s central bank, is responsible for setting the daily midpoint of the yuan (also known as renminbi or RMB). The PBOC follows a managed floating exchange rate system that allows the value of the yuan to fluctuate within a certain range, called a “band,” around a central reference rate,

U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer said on Sunday that electronic products recently exempted from President Donald Trump’s sweeping reciprocal tariffs may still be subject to new duties—just under a different framework. In an interview with CBS’ Face the Nation, Greer clarified that the exemptions reflect a strategic shift from reciprocal tariffs to national security-based measures.

Trump posting on his own social media app, Truth Social: is looking at semiconductors and the electronics supply chain as part of upcoming national security tariff investigations This is in reference to the news over the weekend of a reversal on tariffs for electronics such as smartphones, PCs etc: Trump exempts phones, computers, chips from

China Customs says it has detected salmonella in imported American poultry meats and bone meal Customs will strengthen the inspection and quarantine of imported products strictly in accordance with laws and regulations Such discoveries tend to happen t times of heightened trade tensions it seems. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

BNZ – BusinessNZ Performance of Services Index (PSI). For March was 49.1, indicating a decline in service sector activity February was 49.0 long run average is 53.0 BNZ’s Senior Economist Doug Steel: “combining together the PSI and the Performance of Manufacturing Index (PMI), the Composite Index (PCI) suggests a modest economic recovery. The extent of

This is still one of the more important spots to watch with regards to the whole trade war and tariffs saga at the moment. Yields blowing up in the past week was a key reason in prompting a U-turn from Trump on his reciprocal tariffs policy. And despite scaling back on tariffs on key electronics

Slight delay in the release by the source. Looking at the breakdown, producer prices were seen up 0.1% on the month while import prices were flat in March. From a year-on-year perspective, producer and import prices were seen down 0.1% compared to March 2024. This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

Globes trade will begin at the top of the hour. Forex rates show EUR and JPY both lower against the USD. The latest muddled communication on whats going on with tariffs is that Trump shouted in a social-media post Sunday that “NOBODY is getting ‘off the hook’” on tariffs, the imposts are moving to a

Goldman Sachs cite: ongoing global economic uncertainty solid central bank demand increased inflows into gold-backed ETFs, still rising due to recession concerns Gold hit a record high today: This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

China March dollar-denominated exports +12.4% y/y China Customs says detected salmonella in imported American poultry meats and bone meal Goldman Sachs has raised its year-end gold price target to US$3,700 per ounce Bank of Japan Governor Ueda says US tariffs likely to weigh on global & Japanese economies Xi Jinping calls for deeper China-Vietnam cooperation

Bridgewater Associates founder Ray Dalio warned that President Donald Trump’s trade war has pushed the U.S. economy dangerously close to recession. “I think that right now we are at a decision-making point and very close to a recession,” he said on NBC’s Meet the Press. Dalio described the abrupt tariff changes—many delayed by 90 days

The one positive development over the weekend is that Trump relented on tariffs for electronics here. That said, he had to come out to clarify that a bit as they won’t be in the 145% bucket but set to be placed in a different bucket instead. When those tariffs will come about remains to be

Equity index futures: S&P 500 +1.1% … ES NASDAQ +1.5% … NQ DOW JONES +0.9% … YM There has been much baloney over the weekend over what tariff applies to electronics now (smartphones, PCs etc) – the number seems to be 20%, not 145%. Giving equities a boost. Risk FX update: This article was written

The info comes via a Reuters report over the weekend, though I thought I had seen similar late last week. ICYMi, Shipments of seven rare earth elements from China have come to a standstill following Beijing’s move to tighten export controls, sources told Reuters. The halt began on April 4 after the government placed the

Good morning, afternoon and evening all. Any charts, technical analysis, trade ideas, thoughts, views, ForexLive traders would like to share and discuss with fellow ForexLive traders, please do so: This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

The People’s Bank of China is expected to cut rates amidst the escalating Trump trade war. Earlier: China to step up stimulus, PBOC eyes rate and RRR cuts in Q2 China may cut interest rates and the reserve requirement ratio (RRR) if the trade war with the United States begins to significantly weigh on economic

Goldman Sachs has revised down its oil price forecasts, citing expectations of persistent supply surpluses and subdued demand growth. The bank now sees Brent crude averaging $63 per barrel and WTI at $59 for the remainder of 2025. For 2026, forecasts fall further to $58 for Brent and $55 for WTI. The downward revision reflects

Data for purchases made in New Zealand on debit, credit and store cards Card spending data covers around 68% of core retail sales in NZ. Its used as the main retail sales indicator for the country. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

We had some data from China over the weekend, see the first two lines in the screenshot below. The focus of the session is the trade data from China, the time in the screenshot (0300 GMT) is only a guide). Exports are expected to have jumped higher as pipeline jamming ahead of higher tariffs played

From an interview on ABC: Electronics products will be part of upcoming sectoral tariffs Pharma tariffs also coming in the next month or two US has had ‘soft entrees’ through intermediaries with China on tariffs Not concerned about the US dollar There were some real hopes building for a strong open in tech stocks based

The White House’s Stephen Miller — who is prickly at the best of times — is out with a tweet noting that 20% fentanyl tariffs still apply to China. He wrote this in response to a Washington Post article: Washington Post: maybe your reporters should try reading before posting. These products are subject to the

Weekend info on what appears to be a reversal on tariffs from Trump, an easing on tech goods: Smartphones and computers are among the tech products exempted from Trump’s 145% tariffs on Chinese goods. The exemptions were outlined in new guidance from US Customs, issued late Friday. Other exempted electronic items include: Semiconductors Solar cells

The major US stock indices are closing solidly higher and with the best gains the 2024. The final numbers are showing: Dow industrial average rose 619.05 points or 1.56% at 40,212.71 points S&P index rose 95.31 points or 1.81% at 5363.36. NASDAQ index rose 337.14 points or 2.06% at 16724.45. The small-cap Russell 2000 gains

The low price in the NASDAQ this week stalled at 14,784, just above the 200-week moving average, which currently sits at 14,616.37. Notably, this isn’t the first time that level has attracted support — in 2023, a similar dip found buyers just ahead of the same long-term average. The key difference then was the added

The price of gold continued it run to the upside, for the third week or oh extended above a topside channel trendline. That trendline cuts across at $3082 and moving higher. The price of gold is up close to 100% from it’s September 2022 low. For the trading year (2025), the price is up around

Monday Before Open: Goldman Sachs M&T Bank After Close: FirstBank Pinnacle Financial Partners Tuesday Before Open: Bank of America Citi Johnson & Johnson PNC Albertsons Ericsson After Close: United Airlines Interactive Brokers J.B. Hunt Wednesday Before Open: ASML US Bancorp Abbott Progressive insurance Travelers Prologis After Close: Alcoa CSX Kinder Morgan Thursday Before Open: TSMC

The market is now fully priced for an ECB rate cut on Thursday and Deutsche Bank economists have got on board. The economic hit from reciprocal tariffs, uncertainty, and tighter financial conditions likely exceeds what the ECB was expecting Previous ECB assumptions that tariffs would boost inflation have been challenged Recent developments including higher EUR,

US stocks close at higher with major indices having their best week in 2024 Gold has its best week since since the March 2023 Crude oil futures settled $61.50. Key target near $63.64 held resistance this week Nasdaq held 200 week MA this week. Back above the 100 week MA Collins: Fed ‘absolutely’ ready to

The price of crude oil futures are settling at $61.50. That is up $1.43 or 2.3%. The high price today reached $61 in a seven cents. The low price was at $59.46. For the week, the price is down $0.78 or -1.26%. At session lows however the price was down $-7.13 to a low of

Name a more toxic situationship than this. I’ll wait. With China’s retaliation today, it shows that Xi isn’t going to blink first and reach out. And from the looks of it, Trump also doesn’t want to budge from his position. But if something were to happen, market players will have to hope it happens soon.

I’m increasingly open to the idea that bitcoin could disconnect from the risk trade in light of risks around the US dollar and turmoil in the world. There is a strong correlation between bitcoin and the Nasdaq that’s been established in the last two years but it’s not iron clad. At the moment there is

The USDCAD broke below its 200-day moving average at 1.39969 during yesterday’s session — the first drop below that level since October 7. That break marked a major shift in bias and set the stage for continued downside momentum, which has extended into today’s trading. The pair has also moved below the 61.8% retracement of

We came into first quarter with solid economic conditions. Markets continue to function well. Tariffs will push up inflation pressures. Tariffs announcements are very significant. China trade issues are very big for economy. Hard to invest in times of big uncertainty. Current slate of tariffs are very high. Modal view is for slower growth, not

Charlie Gasparino from Fox Business is out with an interesting tweet: CEOs are speaking with the White House on the trade war; one told me that Trump has an open door policy and is listening to their concerns on the tariff impact on the economy and markets. The overwhelming fear expressed both to Trump and

So we’re all being held hostage by two men who are too proud to pick up the phone… CNN reports: In private discussions hours before China announced new retaliatory tariffs, the Trump administration warned Chinese officials against such a move The Chinese were also told – once again – that Chinese President Xi Jinping should

Oil rigs -9 to 480 Gas rigs +1 to 96 With oil falling into the 50s this week, I think it cements that US oil production will fall this year. The US has already drawn down its drilled-but-uncompleted wells and Tier 1 inventory is scarce. The economics of new wells make it very tough to

There’s no new development to the trade war just yet, so this looks to be just a bit of a breather again for now. After having pared some of the historic gains on Wednesday, we’re seeing stocks hold a calmer mood going into the final day of the week. All that being said, the coast

This is a positive comment as the US tries to find a way to bring down tensions with China. For now, it doesn’t look like China is going to be the one dialing but this whole thing is incredibly stupid. The Treasury Secretary is keeping a very close eye on the bond market More than

An interview with Collins is out in the FT. I take her comments to signal that the Fed would be there if things got disorderly (as always) but some in the market are taking it as a stronger signal that the Fed is standing by. I think a different report released at about the same

The AUDUSD is once again struggling at familiar resistance near its 100-day moving average. Earlier today, the pair moved higher but stalled just shy of the 100-day MA — a level that also capped rallies in February and saw two failed breakouts in March. Sellers leaned against it again, reinforcing the barrier and shifting momentum

Under a new agreement obtained by AFP, U.S. troops will be allowed to operate from several Panama-controlled sites along the Panama Canal. The deal, signed by senior officials from both countries, permits deployments for training, joint exercises, and other activities — but does not authorize the U.S. to build its own military bases, which would

Trump’s economic and financial agenda is wrong path. The EU mustn’t follow Trump on financial regulation. Deregulation would sow seeds of financial crises. Nothing new here as everyone’s critising Trump’s trade war as you would expect. This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at www.forexlive.com.

How is that for a headline? If US 30-year yields wrap up the week at 4.94% or higher, it will be the largest one-week rise in 43 years. That number will feed directly into mortgage costs and corporate borrowing. I’d imagine spreads aren’t exactly behaving well in this environment either. What’s driving it? It’s a

The USD is lower after China increased tariffs on US goods to 125% overnight. The EURUSD spiked above the swing high from 2023 at 1.1275 and the 61.8% of the move down from the January 2021 high which was near that level at 1.1271. The pair is now approaching the swing a swing area on

Akazawa will be meeting with Bessent and Greer for talks, according to the NHK. Japan being one of the closer allies to the US makes this process a bit easier, alongside the fact that they are the ones to approach Trump and his team to talk. But right now, the focus is solely on China

US 30-year yields are down 12 basis points from the highs and now trading lower on the day. That turnaround is salvaging global risk sentiment and leading to a rise in US equity markets. The S&P 500 is now up 1.4% on the day to a session high. The market may be sensing some good

Tariffs will push up inflation pressures Tariff announcements are very significant Hard to invest in times of big uncertainty Modal view is for slower growth, not a downturn Would expect inflation ‘well over 3%’ this year due to tariffs At this point the expectation is the Fed will need to hold for longer Sees a

What do you do with Treasuries the next time there is a crisis? One of the great privileges that the US enjoys in being at the center of the financial system is that when there is a crisis, markets rush into long-dated Treasuries, driving borrowing costs lower. This is a natural hedge to bad news

It’s not looking good in the bond market right now. There is an interesting contrast unfolding with UMich inflation expectations surging but market-based inflation expectations falling. The UMich ones are volatile but I fear that the market is thinking more about tumbling growth beyond the tariff shock and an administration that’s lost its focus on

Japan’s government is considering cutting food consumption tax – pros and cons of this! This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

The EURUSD surged higher today, breaking above both the 2023 swing high and the 61.8% retracement of the decline from the 2020 high — a key level near 1.1271. That breakout sparked strong upside momentum, sending the pair to a session high of 1.1473, just shy of the swing resistance zone between 1.1482 and 1.1516.

Joint fiscal capacity is an appropriate response to shocks. Market infrastructure in Europe is functioning in an orderly fashion. We are monitoring carefully all market developments. We don’t target any exchange rate. If I was aware of Fed intervention in support of Treasuries I would not tell you. This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta

Closing changes on the day: Stoxx 600 -0.1% German DAX -1.2% France CAC -0.3% UK FTSE 100 +0.6% Spain IBEX -0.1% Italy’s FTSE MIB -1.0% On the week: Stoxx 600 -% German DAX -1.5% France CAC -2.5% UK FTSE 100 -1.0% Spain IBEX -1.0% Italy’s FTSE MIB -2.0% The volatility is breathtaking at the moment

The economy started the year on a solid footing Sees unemployment rising to 4.5% to 5% this year Expects growth to slow to 1% this year Very important to keep inflation expectations anchored Modestly restrictive mon pol is totally appropriate Tariffs are a huge driver of uncertainty It’s nice to see him putting some numbers

I posted earlier on: EU Commissioner President Von De Leyen says could tax big tech if Trump trade talks fail Buried in that report is this exchange regarding the potential for China to increase exports to the UE, von de Leyrn concerned about this: von der Leyen said the EU “will not tolerate” Chinese goods

Our job is to make sure inflation expectations don’t rise. It’s a complicated thing to analyse. It’s hard to get a read of what’s happening underneath. We must ensure long-term inflation expectations don’t rise. I am not seeing evidence yet that long-run inflation expectations are rising. Investors may believe that if the trade deficit is

We’ve been expecting this and it finally happened: China retaliated tit-for-tat with a 125% tariff hike on US goods. This is not what we should focus on though as it’s now effectively a trade embargo between the two countries. The key line was China saying that it will ignore any further US hike because it

The NZDUSD reversed sharply higher after bottoming at 0.5483 on Wednesday, following a steep decline from last week’s high at 0.5852. The rebound nearly erased the entire drop, with price reaching 0.5839 — just 13 pips shy of the recent peak. That’s a powerful roundtrip and a clear signal of heightened volatility. The move off

Prior +3.0% HICP +2.2% vs +2.2% y/y prelim Prior +2.9% Core annual inflation is confirmed at 2.0% and down from 2.2% in February, so that’s a positive nod for the ECB. But again, all of this is pre-tariffs so we’ll see how things go moving forward. For now at least though, it won’t derail the

The USD 10-year yield has moved higher with the yield now up 15 basis points at 4.541%. For the week, the yield is up 53 basis points on the week alone. That is the largest 1 week gain since the 1980s (The lower scale on the chart above is the basis point change for the

It no longer makes economic sense if US imposes more tariffs US should bear the responsibility for the damage caused by tariffs You don’t need more tariffs to tell you that it already doesn’t make economic sense at this point. At this point, the tariff levels are just a number. The symbolism is more important

Prior was +3.2% PPI -0.4% m/m vs +0.2% expected Ex food and energy +3.3% y/y vs +3.6% expected Ex food and energy -0.1% m/m vs +0.3% expected Ex food, energy and trade +3.4% vs +3.5% prior Ex food, energy and trade +0.1% vs +0.4% prior This is some welcome cooling that shows some disinflation is

The situation last week of course was not helped by China announcing 34% retaliatory tariffs against the US here. Ah, just 34%? Good times. 10-year Treasury yields were also sitting at 3.88% then, and now they’re at 4.45%. If anything, it goes to show what a wild one week it has been in markets. Anyway,

Bloomberg Q: What’s your reaction this morning to China’s retaliatory tariffs overnight? Wright: “Oh, I think you can see we’re right in the midst of a negotiation. This is home territory for president Trump. Both in his business career and his first term as president, he reads the market place, he engages with people, he

In the European session, we don’t have much other than the Spanish final CPI which is likely to be ignored in the current context. In the American session, we have the US PPI and the UMich survey. As you might have noticed with the US CPI yesterday, the data is not the focus of the

The USDCHF has broken below a key long-term floor that previously stalled declines in 2015, 2023, and 2024. That critical support zone, between 0.8333 and 0.8373, gave way this week, pushing the pair into historically volatile territory — specifically the extremes of 2011, when USDCHF plummeted to an all-time low near 0.7067 (though some argue

Sector Overview: Divergence Spotlight in Technology and Finance The stock market today paints a vibrant picture of divergence, with the technology and financial sectors grabbing attention. The semiconductor arena posts notable gains led by AMD rising 3.73% and NVDA up by 0.81%, indicating renewed investor interest in these tech giants. Conversely, software application stocks such

The UMich consumer sentiment reports is like quantum physics: Something that exists in two states a once. It both matters and doesn’t matter. It’s a deeply flawed indicator but it also captures something, or at least the momentum of something. This edition is too early to capture the full effects of ‘Liberation Day’ but it

Rate cuts by year-end Fed: 95 bps (63% probability of no change at the upcoming meeting) ECB: 80 bps (99% probability of rate cut at the upcoming meeting) BoE: 86 bps (90% probability of rate cut at the upcoming meeting) BoC: 45 bps (56% probability of no change at the upcoming meeting) RBA: 125 bps

Tariffs if implemented pose upside risks to inflation but doesn’t know if that’s months, quarters or years Higher inflation and a softer labor market is closer to the baseline scenario now If inflation expectations become unanchored, have to prioritize fighting inflation Uncertainty on tariff announcements also a headwind The Fed funds market is 93% priced

No matter the changes to external environment, China will strengthen its confidence To maintain determination and concentrate on doing its own thing China and Europe should stick to partnership and adhere to open cooperation China and Europe should fulfil international responsibilities, jointly maintain international trade order Both sides should not only safeguard own interests but

The Wall Street Journal report on “Trump pushing the world’s two biggest economic powers into a battle that will leave neither unscathed and risks tanking the global economy”. The Journal is gated, though perhaps this article is not? Link here if you can access it: The U.S. and China Are Going to Economic War—and Everyone

Prior was 57.9 Current conditions 56.5 vs 61.5 expected Expectations 47.2 vs 50.8 expected 1-year inflation 6.7% vs 4.9% prior 5-year inflation 4.4% vs 3.9% prior This is a flawed survey but it’s a bad result and I don’t see how it improves next month given all the tariff hikes along with rising long-end rates.

In the FX world, everyone is talking about the US Dollar selloff and there are even talks of the greenback losing its reserve status and what not. Generally, when people get very bearish (or bullish) something, that’s when the market does the opposite. Bloomberg reported that traders are the most bearish on the USD in

Info via Reuters. A Harley-Davidson board member has resigned after raising serious concerns about the company’s direction, triggering an 11% drop in the stock on Thursday. Jared Dourdeville, who represents Harley’s second-largest shareholder, H Partners, cited “cultural depletion” stemming from leadership departures and remote work policies in a letter to the board. He also called

Yen, EUR, GBP, CHF are all soaring against the hapless US dollar. Gold too, I shouldn’t leave it out. As I said earlier, there are no fresh catalysts apart from what has already been posted. Also as I said earlier: Markets are now incorporating the risk to Fed independence into their tariff worries. The US

China tariff hike is start of negotiation. I am optimistic on where the US is heading with tariffs and China. He’s been speaking about Iran and global oil demand, but these two lines caught my attention. Is this the first sign that we are about to get some de-escalation? This article was written by Giuseppe

Headlines: China announces increase of additional tariffs on US goods to 125% China says it will ignore the US on further tariffs escalation All eyes stay on the bond market in final trading day of the week Some warning signs for US Dollar shorts Japan economy minister says to hold negotiations with US on tariffs

Safe-haven assets caught a strong bid in recent trading, directing Spot Gold to all-time highs of US$3,220/troy ounce versus the US dollar (XAU/USD). The shift towards safe-haven markets was fueled by softer demand for the USD as markets fled dollar assets, as well as escalating trade tensions between the US and China. Unsurprisingly, the Swiss

That’s a good sign at least that things are moving along quickly, at least on this front. But as for the outcome of the negotiations, we’ll see. If 10% tariffs remain the baseline for everyone, it’s still not exactly a good thing. This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

Eurostoxx +1.0% Germany DAX +1.0% France CAC 40 +1.0% UK FTSE +0.7% Spain IBEX +0.5% Italy FTSE MIB +0.7% European indices missed out on the surging rally on Wednesday and so had to play some catching up yesterday. But then, there was a more negative market mood weighing as well on Thursday itself. And now

Amid the chaos in the markets, the relevance of option expiries during a week like this tends to be rather low. The relative impact of the expiries is extremely minimal when traders are more focused on broader market sentiment and headline risks during this period. Those are the more pertinent factors in driving price action,

ECB is monitoring and ready to use instruments it has if needed to procure price stability. She’s just saying that the central bank stands ready to use all of its instruments in case things go awry. The market is 100% sure of a 25 bps cut at the next week’s meeting and expects at least

Trading and Football: A Shared Vision of Strategy and Mastery PU Prime, a globally recognized online trading platform, has announced its partnership with the Argentina National Football Team as the Official Regional Sponsor. More than just sponsorship, this collaboration represents a shared commitment to education, strategy, and excellence, which are core values in both trading

‘Swap-free’ brokers used to mean hidden fees, but that is no longer the case. If the broker has access to top-tier liquidity and market leading pricing, lack of swaps for them can result in an alluring combination for traders. This can make the company much more popular, and, in the end, profitable. That is the

Tesla has unveiled a new version of its previously announced RWD Cybertruck. will have a longer range will lesser suspension and fewer features This is the cheaper version of the truck. Up until now, Dual Motor AWD and Tri-motor AWD Cyberbeast have been available, This launch is of the Single Motor RWD. This article was

EUR/USD briefly clipped the 1.1400 mark while USD/JPY is now looking to secure a firmer break under 143.00 in trading today. The latter is now trading to its lowest levels since September last year: From a technical perspective, the 140.00 mark is the next target on the charts. But at this point, headline risks are

S&P 500 futures are now back up around 1% on the day while 30-year bond yields in the US have eased to around 4.84% currently. On the latter, that’s down from around 4.91% at the high earlier and will allow broader markets to breathe a little easier heading into US trading. China retaliated by increasing

Both the dollar and risk trades are getting hit on the headlines here as China continues to go blow for blow with Trump on the tariffs front. But at this point, does the number really matter? The latest increase sees the additional tariffs go up to 125%, from 84% previously. This will go into effect

Fundamental Overview As the stock markets around the world bottomed (at least for now), the pressure on gold finally waned and the precious metal rallied strongly into a new all-time high. Gold generally feels the pressure from aggressive stock market selloffs as it tightens financial conditions and there’s a popular narrative that gold positions get

If you think tariff tantrums are over, think again – Trump with more threats: This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

10% remaining tariffs are a blow to the global economy Economic outlook getting more unpredictable Estimates that the euro area could suffer 0.2% to 0.6% GDP loss from tariffs Europe does not want a confrontation on tariffs Dombrovskis adds that they are willing to offer zero-for-zero tariffs on goods at this stage. So, we’ll see.

Despite a decent 30-year bond auction yesterday, yields are continuing to surge as broader market dislocations are persisting. 30-year yields in the US shot to a high of 4.95% earlier but is still up around 3 bps near 4.90% currently. That follows from the jump overnight in erasing the decline from late Wednesday, when Trump

This readout via the People’s Bank of China: China’s Xuan Changneng, Deputy Governor of the PBoC, attended the ASEAN+3 Finance and Central Bank Deputies Meeting in Kuala Lumpur. He chaired discussions as China’s co-chair of the 10+3 Finance and Financial Cooperation Mechanism. Key topics included: Impact of US tariffs on global and regional macroeconomics. Strengthening

Prior +2.3% HICP +2.3% vs +2.3% y/y prelim Prior +2.6% Core annual inflation was revised to 2.6% as compared to 2.5% from the initial estimate, though still down from 2.7% in February. This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

At this stage, they’re put in a tough spot. With markets facing extreme turbulence and dislocations, the franc has been one of the key beneficiaries – and still is. It will be a waste to burn their reserves in fighting back until the fundamental landscape changes. But the longer this persists and the more the

Prior -0.1%; revised to 0.0% Services +0.3% vs +0.1% m/m expected Prior +0.1% Industrial output +1.5% vs 0.0% m/m expected Prior -0.9%; revised to -0.5% Manufacturing output +2.2% vs +0.2% m/m expected Prior -1.1%; revised to -1.0% Construction output +0.4% vs 0.0% expected Prior -0.2%; revised to -0.3% It shows some added resilience to the

The People’s Bank of China (PBOC), China’s central bank, is responsible for setting the daily midpoint of the yuan (also known as renminbi or RMB). The PBOC follows a managed floating exchange rate system that allows the value of the yuan to fluctuate within a certain range, called a “band,” around a central reference rate,

The dollar’s status as the reserve currency and usual safe haven have been heavily undermined amid the whole tariffs saga. Even with the basis trade imploding and yields shooting higher while stocks crashed, there has been hardly any love for the dollar at all. That speaks volumes to the sort of shift in hierarchy in

Japanese finance minister Kato speaking as USD/JPY continues to plunge: forex rates should be set by markets excess FX volatility negatively impacts the economy have agreed with the US to continue closely communicating on Forex at a minister level will continue to exchange views with G7 countries This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at

EU leaders plan to travel to China for a meeting with Chinese President Xi in July South China Morning Post with the info. Earlier: EU and China have begun negotiations on abolition of EU tariffs on Chinese electric cars Trade will top the agenda in these talks. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at

Way back in March I posted on the question of Trump ending Fed independence: Is Trump building the foundations to fire Fed Chair Powell and other Fed members? “A political Federal Reserve risks weakening the US dollar’s reserve status” Earlier in the session here (late US afternoon) this issue raised its ugly head again, check

People’s Bank of China USD/CNY reference rate is due around 0115 GMT. The People’s Bank of China (PBOC), China’s central bank, is responsible for setting the daily midpoint of the yuan (also known as renminbi or RMB). The PBOC follows a managed floating exchange rate system that allows the value of the yuan to fluctuate

EUR/USD 1.1350 USD/JPY 142.99 USD/CHF 0.8154 Gold 3206) Ugly times for the US dollar, the idealogues are destroying it. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

US Commerce Secretary Lutnick with a strange desire/wording for the US economy: Little wonder Lutnick has been demoted: Trump has sidelined some of his advisers – poor performers Lutnick & Navarro on the outer This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

Tesla has launched new ‘Long Range’ Cybertruck in the US @ $69990USD PBOC, BoJ and BoK met to discuss the impact of Trump tariffs on the global economy US dollar, bonds, equities have all been smashed in Asia morning trade – recap (so far) PBOC sets USD/ CNY reference rate for today at 7.2087 (vs.

Investors are liking other fiat vs. USD. EUR (just hit its highest since July 2023), GBP, CHF, yen all rising. Gold surging too, its around 3185 as I post. I posted back in March on Trump efforts that may be directed at removing the independence of the Federal Reserve: Is Trump building the foundations to

Pressure on the US dollar is continuing. EUR, JPY, CHF, GBP, gold all strong during Asia morning trade. USD/JPY notable, its dropped under 143.50. There is no fresh news nor catalyst apart from what has already been posted. Markets are now incorporating the risk to Fed independence into their tariff worries. USD/JPY update: EUR, JPY,

BNZ – BusinessNZ Performance of Manufacturing Index (PMI). March 2025 53.2 prior 53.9 Expansion for a third consecutive month BusinessNZ’s Director, Advocacy Catherine Beard: “The sub-index values were mostly in expansion during March.” BNZ’s Senior Economist Doug Steel “the PMI supports the notion that manufacturing GDP has increased in early 2025. The open question is

US retailer Five Below has asked vendors to turn away products waiting for shipment in China before they set off for the US Bloomberg with the info Shipping giant A.P. Moller-Maersk A/S sent a letter to suppliers on behalf of the discount retail chain saying that the company has elected to suspend its cargo shipments,

Back in January I posted on a two-pronged reason for a lower USD: steep up trend line for the USD appears to have been broken first year of Trump’s Presidency #1 was a downtrend for the USD Here’s a link: The steep up trend line for the USD appears to have been broken I drew

Mon: Japanese Cash Earnings (Feb), German Trade Balance (Feb), EZ Retail Sales (Feb), EZ Sentix Index (Apr) Tue: N/A Wed: FOMC Minutes, RBNZ Announcement, RBI Announcement Thu: Chinese Inflation (Mar), Swedish GDP (Feb), Norwegian CPI (Mar), Taiwan Trade Balance (Mar), US CPI (Mar) Fri: UK GDP (Feb), US PPI (Mar), US UoM Prelim (Apr), US

S&P 500 futures are down 2.4%, which is about 1 percentage point off the lows but still an ugly outcome. I wonder if we start to see some forced selling at the open as well. If there’s a good bit of news to dwell on, it’s that Cramer on CNBC sounds like he is near

Following China’s retailiation news, traders increased the rate cuts expectations to 116 bps by year end. That’s more than 50% chance of a fifth cut. This is the market screaming for an end to the trade war or support from the Fed as things are expected to get worse without central bank easing. The longer

The most notable thing about the tariffs for precious metals is that they were somewhat excluded from it. The tariffs made an exemption to “bullion” and that is leading to some readjustment it would seem in precious metals and some industrial metals this week. Silver is down another 2% today after having fallen by 6%

Major US indices are closing sharply to the downside with declines near by 5.5% – 6% Crude oil settles at $61.99 Geopolitics: Russia military strikes energy facility in Kherson on Friday EU Trade commissioner Sepcovic: US tariffs are damaging and unjustified UK offered to cut tariffs on beef and fish. Trump: Will sign executive order

Headlines: China announces tariffs of 34% on all US goods in retaliation Risk-off flows intensify ahead of US trading Traders are now pricing more than 50% chance of a fifth cut by year-end AUD hit the hardest amid the risk-off flows Gold picks itself back up as the trade war rhetoric escalates Oil sinks to

Stocks are being crushed hard right now in European trading with the DAX down nearly 5% and CAC 40 down over 4% on the day. China’s counter-tariffs have delivered another blow to risk sentiment and that’s reverberating across broader markets. S&P 500 futures are also down well over 2% now: In FX, USD/JPY is one

The market moves are intense at the moment, as China delivers sweeping counter-tariffs against the US here. It’s a bit of a case of blink and you’ll miss it, with the price movements coming in thick and fast. In FX, we’re already seeing USD/JPY tumble below 145.00 now to fresh lows – down by 1%

Pres. Trump will extend the deadline for the sale to US ownership. Have made tremendous progress on TikTok deal I am signing an executive order to keep TikTok up and running for an additional 75 days He hopes to continue working in good faith with China we do not want TikTok to go dark We

This is seeing the overall risk mood slide back lower as we look towards US trading later. Trump’s tariffs announcement two days ago is just the start of all this uncertainty. The retaliations and negotiations are all part of what markets have to deal with next and China’s response is one of the bigger ones.

Jeff Stein from the Washington Post is out with an article saying that there were numerous formula to calculate the reciprocal tariff levels. The other ones were said to be more sophisticated. Although a can be confirmed precisely the one that train picked and similarities to ideas proposed by Peter Navarro. Adam posted yesterday that

B2PRIME Group, a leading global financial services provider for institutional and professional clients, has released its market report for 2024. In it, the Group showcases its results and growth in key metrics while also highlighting broader industry trends shaping institutional liquidity demand. 2024 marked a period of remarkable expansion for B2PRIME, driven by increased institutional

It was a very ugly day for the US Dollar yesterday as the aggressive bets on rate cuts for the Fed following the tariffs announcement pushed the greenback to the lowest level in 6 months. It’s a different story today with the dollar erasing most of the losses against the major currencies with GBPUSD in

Oil rigs +5 at 489 Natural gas -7 to 96 Total rigs -2 to 590 The price of crude oil is trading down $-5.00 or -7.59% at $61.89. The low price reached its lowest level since April 2021. This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

USDJPY has been under pressure since yesterday but found buyers near the 144.40–144.52 zone—a key support area that held during the most recent tumble (see renumbered circles from 2024). A break below this level would have shifted the bias more decisively to the downside, but for now, buyers have stepped in and stalled the fall.

Two days after Liberation Day is not looking good for the markets. The USD fell yesterday with the CHF and the JPY leading the way. The dollar is mixed today as the flow of funds start to go out of AUD and NZD as China retaliates with their own 34% rise in tariffs. The AUDUSD

Trump’s latest tweet: CHINA PLAYED IT WRONG, THEY PANICKED – THE ONE THING THEY CANNOT AFFORD TO DO! Someone is going to panic when they see the losses in the market, that’s for sure. This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

Prior month 1.1 K Employment change.-32.6 K vs 2.0 K estimate unemployment rate 6.7% vs 6.7% estimate. Last month 6.6% – the first increase since November 2024 full-time employment -62.0 K versus -19.7 K last month part-time employment 29.5 K versus 20.8 K last month Total hours worked rose 0.4% in March (after -1.3% in

To trade economic data successfully, one has to consider three things: the underlying expectations, the context and whether the data changes future expectations. The data is by definition backward looking but the market is a forward looking machine. I talked about it here. The NFP report is old news now because it doesn’t incorporate the

Liberation week isn’t going great for markets, that’s for sure. S&P 500 futures are down 2.9% and we’re minutes away from non-farm payrolls. See our: March non-farm payrolls preview by the numbers: Sentiment is bad but what about hiring? The worst-case scenario today is that we get a bad non-farm payrolls reading and Powell takes

Sector Overview Today’s stock market paints a vivid picture of widespread turmoil, especially within technology and consumer sectors. Technology is taking a significant hit, with Microsoft (MSFT) shedding 0.57% and semiconductor giant Nvidia (NVDA) down a staggering 6.63%. The consumer cyclical space echoes this downturn, as seen with Amazon (AMZN) decreasing by 2.27% and Tesla

This adds to calls for the US economy to slow towards the brink of a recession, with UBS Global Wealth Management saying that US GDP could contract by some 1% peak-to-trough during the year. Besides that, they are cutting their call on US equities to neutral from attractive previously. And they are slashing their 2025

I want to set up a tariffs response headquarters soon. Trying to set up a phone call with Trump first. I was asked to have a call with Trump soon. Explained government measures on tariffs to party leaders. World leaders are trying to decide on the appropriate response to Trump’s tariffs. Ishiba said that the

The US stock markets are again under some heavy pressure following the news of China’s retaliation. The S&P 500 broke below the September 2024 low that was keeping the selling pressure at bay for a bit. The next key level is August 2024 low at 5210 which would be more than 16% correction from the

It’s too soon to say what will be the appropriate path for monetary policy Tariffs likely to raise inflation in coming quarters; more persistent effects possible Highlights uncertainty about persistence of tariffs and retaliation Becoming clear that tariffs will be significantly larger than expected, the same is true of the economic effects Says higher inflation

The NZDUSD is down -3.47%, marking its largest single-day decline since at least the end of 2012. Even during the height of the 2020 pandemic, the worst daily drop was -3.39%—today’s move surpasses that, making it the steepest fall in over 12 years. On the daily chart, yesterday’s high briefly pierced the 38.2% retracement of

The stocks are pushing back to the downside with the : Dow -2000+ points or -5.28% NASDAQ index -900+ points or -5.64% S&P index -300+ points or -5.76% The NASDAQ index is on pace for its second consecutive decline of over 5%. That has only happened three other times in 1987, 2001, and 2008. The

We’re watching Trump tweets very closely and Powell is set to speak in 15 minutes. The prior tweet from Trump led to a bounce in risk assets. Here is the latest from the President: This would be a PERFECT time for Fed Chairman Jerome Powell to cut Interest Rates. He is always “late,” but he

The employment data from Canada and the U.S. diverged sharply, with Canada posting a weaker-than-expected jobs report, while the U.S. data came in stronger. This fundamental contrast pushed USDCAD higher. However, the rally has stalled near 1.42386—a key level defined by the lows from March 6 and March 26. This area also marks the adjusted

In my post yesterday, I wrote: The pair is now sliding back toward a cluster of key moving averages on the 4-hour chart — including the 100-bar and 200-bar MAs on the 4-hour chart and the 100 day MA — currently between 0.6305–0.6317 area. A move below this zone would tilt the bias back to

To impose tariffs of 34% on all US goods Additional tariffs will go into effect starting from 10 April Adds 16 US entities to export control list Additional restrictions on some rare earths related items Risk sentiment is taking a further knock on the day on the headlines here. S&P 500 futures are now down

Shares of Nike and textile makers have rallied on a comment from Trump on Truth Social. He wrote: Just had a very productive call with To Lam, General Secretary of the Communist Party of Vietnam, who told me that Vietnam wants to cut their Tariffs down to ZERO if they are able to make an

The Washington Post is reporting that talks between the US and the UK are ongoing: UK offered to cut tariffs on beef and fish23 tuks Relatively speaking, the UK got off easy this week although the tariffs are ending up across different industries: On April 2, 2025, President Donald Trump announced a 10% tariff on

Yesterday I wrote that the speech from Powell scheduled for today was an even-bigger event than non-farm payrolls and that’s even more true now. Fed pricing has continued to take a dovish shift and the market is now pricing in 125 basis points in rate cuts in the coming 12 months. The runs counter to

Vietnam general secretary To Lam says: Vietnam ready to cut tariffs 20 and asks US to do the same Agreed with Pres. Trump to discuss and sign bilateral agreement to concretize commitments on zero tariffs Invites Trump to Vietnam and says Pres. Trump accepted invitation. The announcement has led to shares of Nike spiking up

Trump writes: TO THE MANY INVESTORS COMING INTO THE UNITED STATES AND INVESTING MASSIVE AMOUNTS OF MONEY, MY POLICIES WILL NEVER CHANGE. THIS IS A GREAT TIME TO GET RICH, RICHER THAN EVER BEFORE!!! He’s presumably talking about tariffs here. I suspect this is a pushback on the argument that it’s a bad idea to

Commodity currencies are generally very sensitive to global growth and they rise the most in risk-on environments and fall the most during negative sentiment. The Australian Dollar is also very sensitive to macro events linked to China given that the country is Australia’s biggest trading partner. We can see that the AUD is down the

Chair Jerome H. Powell At the Society for Advancing Business Editing and Writing Annual Conference, Arlington, Virginia Thank you for having me here today. Monetary policy is more effective when the public understands what we are doing and why. Through your work, journalists like you help promote that greater understanding. I am sure this room

EU Trade Commissioner Sepcovic: Had frank talks with US officials over Pres. Trump tariffs He reiterated to United States US Commerce Secretary Lutnick that US tariffs are damaging and unjustified. On US tariffs that EU is committed to meaningful negotiations but also prepared to defend our interests. Will stay in touch with US on this

Prior +151K (revised to +117K) Two-month net revision: K versus -2K prior Unemployment rate: 4.2% versus 4.1% expected Unrounded unemployment rate: 4.1519% versus 4.1396% prior Prior unemployment rate: 4.1% Participation rate: 62.5% versus 62.4% prior U6 underemployment rate: 7.9% versus 8.0% prior Average hourly earnings (m/m): +0.3% versus +0.3% expected Prior avg hourly earnings: +0.3%

Gold was struggling earlier in the day as some selling pressures crept in, with gold being lumped alongside other precious and industrial metals in the early reaction to Trump’s tariffs. But with China’s response here, we’re quickly turning to focusing on retaliatory measures and that is springing gold bugs back to life in trading today.

U.S. stocks are trading lower despite a stronger-than-expected jobs report, as market focus has shifted sharply toward escalating trade tensions. China responded to the latest U.S. tariff measures by announcing 34% retaliatory tariffs, matching those imposed by President Trump the day prior. The renewed tariff war has injected fresh uncertainty into markets. The VIX volatility

The price of WTI crude oil is settling at $61.99 down $4.96 or 7.40%. The price of crude oil was it this week on the back of the tariff news and expectations of slower global growth, and ​the OPEC+ alliance, led by Saudi Arabia and Russia, that announced a larger-than-expected increase in oil production. Starting

The USDCHF continues to trade under pressure, sitting near the lower end of the consolidation range that defined price action between August and October 2024 (see red box on the chart). The recent low held within that range, and the current price hovers around 0.8510, keeping sellers in control. For the downside bias to shift,

The EURUSD moved into a topside range from back in September/October 2024 yesterday between 1.1001 and 1.1213, and has increased the momentum in trading today. The high price extended to 1.1098 just short of 1.1100 natural resistance. Since then, the price has moved lower and back below the low of the swing area at 1.1001.

Ukraine Pres. Zelenskyy is on the wires saying: Russian military strikes energy facility in Kherson on Friday earlier today the Ukrainian president said US is close to taking steps to pressure Russia into adhering to a cease-fire there is no sense for Ukraine to have direct talks with Russia unless it adheres to unconditional cease-fire.

Major US stock indices all move sharply lower for the second consecutive day. The S&P index in the NASDAQ index closed down6%. The final numbers are showing: Dow industrial average -2231.07 points or -5.5% or 38314.86 S&P index -322.44 points or -5.97% at 5074.05.. NASDAQ index -962.82 points or -5.82% and 15587.79. Russell 2000-83.51 points

The GBPUSD is trading to a new low for the day and new low for the week. The price has now broken below the low from earlier this week at 1.2878. The low going back to March 5 reached 1.28608. A move below the floor area, would have traders looking toward the rising 200 bar

The White House Council of economic advisers Miran saysi that tax codes and regulations are ahead. Adds: March Jobs shows closing border might not hurt payrolls Of course there is some market volatility due to tears Trump is laying the ground for economic boom, markets will see. Ok. This article was written by Greg Michalowski

Inflation has come down quite a bit and we’re close to maximum employment Data has been solid, right through today’s jobs report What we’ve learned is that tariffs are higher than almost anyone expected but we don’t know where that comes to rest People expect us to tell the truth, and that’s what we intend

S&P 500 Technical Map: Watch the Blue Channel Date: April 4, 2025 Market: S&P 500 E-mini Futures (ES) Timeframe: 4-Hour Chart Source: ForexLive.com Yesterday I showed how this blue channel could guide investors and traders follow the price action. The S&P 500 continues to move within a well-defined downward sloping blue channel, which has now

And so the conflict rages on between Russia and Ukraine. The headline here reaffirms geopolitical tensions in the region aren’t going to be resolved that easily. That just adds to the caution and risk for markets to consider amid everything else at the moment. This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

The USD is sharply lower vs the EURUSD, USDJPY and GBPUSD after the “Liberation Day” tariffs. As a review, below are the current new tariff view for the EU, JPY and GBP European Union (EU): Baseline Tariff: A 10% tariff was imposed on all foreign imports Reciprocal Tariff:An additional 20% tariff was applied specifically to

So, they’re now revising their forecast to see the ECB cut rates in both April and June by 25 bps each. That fits with what markets are already more or less pivoting towards. The odds priced in for a rate cut in April are now at ~73%. But market pricing only shows a near full

AUD and kiwi$ have both slumped. Apart from what has already been posted there is no fresh news. This direction makes more sense sense to me after the tariffs, rather than the rise we had post-tariff announcement This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

German DAX futures -0.2% UK FTSE futures flat This comes as US futures are also paring losses from earlier with S&P 500 futures now down just 0.2%. It’s still early in the day though as we do have the US jobs report also to contend with alongside Fed chair Powell’s speech. Also, there will surely

The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) is expected to lower its official cash rate by 25 basis points to 3.50% on April 9, according to a Reuters poll of 31 economists—all of whom forecast this move. This cut would be the fifth in a row, bringing the total reduction since August 2024 to 175

In Canada on tariffs as of April 3, 2025, the United States has imposed specific tariffs including:​ Steel and Aluminum Tariffs: Effective March 12, 2025, the U.S. imposed a 25% tariff on steel and aluminum imports from Canada. ​ Automobile Tariffs: On April 2, 2025, a 25% tariff on all imported automobiles and auto parts

In the European session we don’t have much in terms of data releases other than a couple of low tier indicators. The focus will be on the American session when we get the Canadian Employment report, the US NFP and especially Fed Chair Powell’s speech. 12:30 GMT/08:30 ET – Canada March Employment report The Canadian

As mentioned yesterday, the focus at the moment is more on the economic destruction from Trump’s tariffs. That is outweighing concerns about higher inflation pressures that may come alongside it. As we look to end the week, broader markets are still keeping a more defensive approach. S&P 500 futures are down another 0.6% currently after

It’s been a bloodbath yesterday in the markets following Trump’s reciprocal tariffs announcement as risk-off flows on expected global slowdown dominated the price action. The stock market is sensitive to future growth expectations and yesterday’s news didn’t help at all. On the contrary, it increased the probabilities of a recession. Now traders will be on

Japanese media (Asahi) says the Japanese government is considering what actions to take over the new tariffs, including an extra budget. Nissan, meanwhile, says its pausing order for the US market for its Infintia branded QX50 and QX55 vehicles. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

I’ll be posting on the Japanese data as it comes out, but more out of habit than anything else! Still, maybe the Bank of Japan will express some worry if household spending drops back like expectations how. Most attention will be on tariff news as retaliation ramps up. This snapshot from the ForexLive economic data

Trump speaking Asked about tariffs and market response, Trump says ‘operation’ over, now it settles in Trump says he would consider deal where China approves TikTok sale in exchange for tariff relief Trump says open to tariff negotiations if other countries offer something phenomenal Trump, asked about firing of national security aides, says we sometimes

Prior -7.0%; revised to -5.5% Slight delay in the release by the source. After some months of volatility owing to spikes in orders for the category of aircraft, ships, trains, military vehicles, there wasn’t much meaningful activity in German factory orders in February. Looking at the breakdown, there was a jump for orders for capital

Tech Sector Takes a Dive The US stock market saw a significant downturn today, with the technology sector facing acute pressure. Major players such as Microsoft (MSFT) declined by 2.21%, and Oracle (ORCL) fell by 4.86%, reinforcing concerns about the stability of this sector. Apple’s plunge of 7.89% in consumer electronics adds a heavy weight

Deutsche Bank is out with a note today that’s getting attention. It highlights the drop in the US dollar across the board in the aftermath of the US tariff announcements. They highlight that the calculation of US tariff rates is particularly problematic, something I also wrote about. This is a diplomatic way of saying ‘the

The bloc had been expected to raise oil output in May by around 135k bpd. However, the agreement now is that they will be going with that alongside two additional monthly increments. That means the production adjustment in May will be roughly 411k bpd. That perhaps explains why the ministers were meeting for two hours.

Morgan Stanley raising around 100 billion yen for Japan-focused real estate fund Morgan Stanley fund is due to close in June Headlines via Reuters citing unnamed sources This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

Fundamental Overview The USD sold off hard almost across the board following Trump’s worse than expected tariffs announcement on Wednesday. The market reacted to the news by pricing in aggressively more rate cuts for the Fed in expectations of a bigger hit to the US economy compared to the rest of the world. At the

CNBC’s Megan Cassella was talking about tariffs and indicated that the messaging from the White House is that there won’t be negotiations on tariffs. The line from the top is that ‘countries had 70 years to negotiate’. This is a White House official cited by CNBC: “This is not a negotiation. This is a national

Blueberry, a leading online forex broker, is thrilled to announce a strategic partnership with TradingView, the world’s largest social network for traders and investors. This collaboration aims to enhance the trading experience for Blueberry customers by providing access to TradingView’s powerful charting tools, advanced technical analysis, and social trading features. The partnership will also include

Why it’s important? The ranges of estimates are important in terms of market reaction because when the actual data deviates from the expectations, it creates a surprise effect. Another important input in market’s reaction is the distribution of forecasts. In fact, although we can have a range of estimates, most forecasts might be clustered on

I think the change in expectations to the Fed outlook reflects the sort of scramble and divisive uncertainty in markets at the moment. While some are thinking the Fed will cut more, there are some thinking that they will cut less or won’t all this year. Nomura was in the former camp but they are

At least it shows he cares about the stock market, though that’s hard to correlate with a 5.3% drop in the Nasdaq today. This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

Prior 2.7% This keeps with the trend of further softening in the labour market after the post-Covid recovery. This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

Japan February 2024 household spending data: -0.5% y/y expected was -1.7%, prior +0.8% +3.5% m/m expected +0.5%, prior -4.5% Yen is swinging around so far on the session, traders are jittery after the hug moves in response to Trumpo’s tariffs. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

It was argued that it was no longer possible to be confident that monetary policy was restrictive It was suggested that the balance was increasingly shifting towards the transmission of rate cuts Replacing “monetary policy remains restrictive” with “monetary policy is becoming meaningfully less restrictive” was widely seen as a reasonable compromise Likely shocks on

When the two largest economies in the world are set to be hit hard, this is what you get. This just adds to the echo chamber that is keeping the initial reaction in markets focused more on recession risks. This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

Goldman Sachs has lowered its oil price forecasts, citing concerns over escalating trade tariffs and a slight increase in supply from OPEC+ producers. Sees Brent crude averaging $69 per barrel and WTI at $66 in 2025, with further declines to $62 and $59, respectively, in 2026. These projections are $4 below the forward-curve implied averages

A reporter for Bloomberg with the info: US officials today told the UK that they’re open to talking about Britain’s proposal to reduce tariffs below 10% This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

Fitch picked a heckuva day to downgrade a major economy. We forecast China’s general government deficit to rise to 8.4% of GDP in 2025, from 6.5% in 2024 We forecast China GDP to increase by 4.4% in 2025 from 5.0% in 2024 Tariff rise has been much more drastic and China will still be affected

White House internal talking points say tariffs aren’t open to negotiation – report March non-farm payrolls preview by the numbers: Sentiment is bad but what about hiring? Trump says stocks will ‘boom’ despite tariffs rout Fed’s Cook sees more emphasis on upside inflation risks More from Fed’s Jefferson: Still substantial uncertainty around the trade Macron:

Prior 41.2 Germany’s construction sector remains largely subdued in Q1 with little signs of optimism in general. All three subsectors continue to reflect declines in activity still. The only saving grace in the plans for infrastructure spending but that will take some time to play out. HCOB notes that: “The sustained decline in activity in

Rate cuts by year-end Fed: 102 bps (61% probability of no change at the upcoming meeting) ECB: 72 bps (75% probability of rate cut at the upcoming meeting) BoE: 75 bps (86% probability of rate cut at the upcoming meeting) BoC: 69 bps (55% probability of rate cut at the upcoming meeting) RBA: 99 bps

There are a couple to take note of on the day, as highlighted in bold. That said, I’ll begin with a big caveat in saying that the expiries board don’t matter all too much and won’t have much, if any, impact on days/weeks like these. It’s all market emotion and reaction to key headlines more

BOJ will aim to raise rates to 1% under current rate hike cycle The next rate hike from 0.50% to 0.75% could happen either in May or June That will be followed up with a pause For the time being at least, traders are not anticipating the BOJ to move in May or June. That

With mainland and Hong Kong markets out today, trading linked are also closed. , What are these ‘trading links’? Shanghai-Hong Kong Stock Connect is one: a mutual market access program through which investors in each market can trade shares on the other market directly launched in 2014 Northbound Trading allows international and Hong Kong investors

Japan finance minister Kato says has no comment on forex warns tariffs could have a significant impact on trade systems also impact on economies This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

The New Civil Liberties Alliance (NCLA), a conservative legal group, has filed the first lawsuit challenging Trump’s new tariffs on Chinese imports. The suit claims Trump exceeded his legal authority by imposing tariffs under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA). It was filed in federal court in Florida and targets both the April 2

Eurostoxx -0.8% Germany DAX -0.6% France CAC 40 -0.9% UK FTSE -0.7% Spain IBEX -1.5% Italy FTSE MIB -1.8% European equities are poised for their worst weekly showing since the market rout from late July to early August last year. US futures are also keeping lower for now, with S&P 500 futures down 0.5%. As

Stellantis laying off 900 workers at five U.S. facilities following Trump tariff announcement the firm is also pausing production at one assembly plant each in Mexico and Canada In a letter sent to employees … the firm said its “continuing to assess the medium- and long-term effects of these tariffs on our operations, but also

New York Times reports the EU is considering fining X over $1 billion. NYT is gated. I’ll post more if its of interest. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

Morgan Stanley has withdrawn its forecast for a U.S. Federal Reserve rate cut in June, citing rising inflation risks stemming from Trump’s newly announced tariffs. The bank now expects the Fed to hold rates steady through to March 2026. Trump announced sweeping tariffs on US imports on Wednesday, higher duties targeting dozens of countries. Morgan

The pair is down 0.2% to 1.1020 levels at the moment after touching a high of just above 1.1100 earlier in the day. The dollar is holding steadier in trading today and that’s helping with the mood somewhat. Still, we are seeing safety bids keep up with USD/CHF down 0.5% to 0.8545 at the moment.

Whirlpool Corp. will lay off 651 workers from its Amana manufacturing facility effective June 1 company cites reduced consumer demand for its refrigeration products More here. ps. this is not breaking, it was out Thursday US time ICYMI. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

Prior 44.6 The downturn in the UK construction sector continues but moderated slightly in March. It’s not a good look with all three subsectors (commercial building, residential building, civil engineering) still in decline. Adding to that is a steep decline in employment levels, so that’s something to be wary about. S&P Global notes that: “March

The worse than expected tariffs announcement on Wednesday triggered recessionary fears in the markets. Crude oil was one of the markets most affected by that news as OPEC+ continues to hike supply. So, we have both higher supply and lower demand expectations obviously leading to lower prices. Moreover, OPEC+ yesterday surprised with a bigger boost

It’s hard to find reasons to be optimistic about the oil market at the moment. The macro backdrop is such a tough one to go up against with OPEC+ increasing production in a time when Trump wants lower oil prices and heightened risks of a global economic slowdown. Tariff fears and a risk off mood

Bank of Japan Governor Ueda in the Diet today. Amongst the questions will likely be some on the rapid yen appreciation and the drop in JGB yields since Trump’s tariff announcements. FWIW the speculation is that Trump’s moves may prompt some offshore selling of USTs. JGBs are the logical alternative IMO. Anyway, stay tuned for

IMF chief Georgieva Says U.S. tariff measures represent a ‘significant risk to the global outlook’ at a time of sluggish growth Says it is important to avoid steps that could further harm the world economy We appeal to the U.S. and its trading partners to work constructively to reduce tensions This article was written by

Bank of Japan Deputy Governor Uchida Will raise interest rates if underlying inflation heightens against background of continued improvements in economy We will examine, without any preset idea, whether our economic, price forecasts laid out in our quarterly report will be achieved We will scrutinise at each meeting economic, price developments and risks including impact

AUD and NZD losing ground Trump has fired NSA Director Timothy Haugh South Korea Constitutional Court upheld President Yoon Suk Yeolhis impeachment Bank of Japan Governor Ueda says US tariffs have raised uncertainty Federal Reserve Chair Powell is speaking on Friday, Barr and Waller also Goldman Sachs cuts oil price forecasts amid tariff concerns and

Earlier post on this is here: Trump would consider deal where China approves TikTok sale in exchange for tariff relief The Financial Times following up now with similar: This is also relevant: Flip flop time – Trump says he is open to deals on tariffs This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

Bank of Japan Governor Ueda US tariffs likely to exert downward pressure on Japan, global economies Hard to say now how US tariffs will affect Japan’s price moves Will closely monitor US tariff impact on Japan, overseas economic and price developments in deciding monetary policy We will scrutinise data, including from hearings, available at the

The Atlantic leak last week was a sign that the people running foreign policy in the United States were making it up as they go along. The reasoning behind the tariff rates today may be even worse. Here are some examples: These numbers were purported to be some kind of well-thought-out number to represent the

Consensus estimate +135K Estimate range +50K to +185K February was +151K Private consensus +135K versus +151K prior Unemployment rate consensus estimate 4.1% versus 4.1% prior Prior unrounded unemployment rate 4.1396% Prior participation rate 62.4% Prior underemployment U6 8.0% Avg hourly earnings y/y exp +3.9% versus +4.0% prior Avg hourly earnings m/m exp +0.3% versus +0.3%

A key variable in the next leg in markets is how the Federal Reserve reacts to all this. I’ve seen some research today showing this will push US inflation to 5% and that’s a big headache for Powell. The market is pricing in a very high likelihood of a rate cut in June and about

The National Security Agency (NSA) is the preeminent US wiretapping and cyber espionage service. Washington Post reports that its director has been fired. This comes after Trump fired multiple administration officials, including at least three National Security Council staffers, on Thursday. Make of this what you will, and what the market implications, if any, are.

The political turmoil in South Korea casued financail marekt uncertainty. Indeed, South Korea will hold a financial market discussion meeting later today. The Ministry of Finance, the Bank of Korea, and regulatory agencies will meet later. KRW update: This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

Bank of Japan Governor Ueda says US tariffs have heightened uncertainty for the global economic outlook BOJ tankan showed some manufacturers saw hit from U.S. tariffs, sluggish Chinese & overseas demand March BOJ tankan also showed improvement in non-manufacturers’ business sentiment reflecting Japan’s moderate economic recovery Taken together, we see Japan business sentiment in good

Headlines: The dollar hemorrhage continues in European trading How have interest rates expectations changed after the tariffs announcement? EU trade commissioner says will talk to US counterparts tomorrow German Chancellor Scholz: Europe will respond appropriately and proportionately “We are ready in this trade war”, says France Japan says have not heard rationale behind reciprocal tariffs

1525/1125 Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell speaks on the economic outlook before the Society for Advancing Business Editing and Writing (SABEW) Annual Conference, in Arlington, Va 1600/1200 Federal Reserve Board Governor Michael Barr speaks on “Artificial Intelligence and Banking” before the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, San Francisco State University, and University of California

It’s looking rough out there again for stocks with US futures being hammered after yesterday’s losses. The S&P 500 closed down by nearly 5% and while that looks bad, the chart below still shows that the latest rout isn’t that ugly in the bigger picture. That despite the declines being over 12% from the recent

The AUDUSD made a run higher in early trading, but momentum stalled at a familiar resistance zone — just below the 38.2% retracement of the move down from the December high, and near the swing high from two weeks ago. That ceiling, around 0.6390–0.64136, remains a key upside barrier. Buyers made a push, but the

The Atlanta Fed GDPNow growth estimate for GDP has worsened to -3.8% from -2.8%. Adjusting for imports and exports of gold the growth is forecast at -1.4 percent. In their own words: The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the first quarter of 2025 is -3.7 percent on April

Canada was one of the ‘winners’ yesterday but that ignores auto tariffs, steel, aluminum and products not covered under USMCA. So while the news could have been worse, there is still plenty of pain to come. With that in mind, Carney isn’t in the mood to back down: Canada will impose 25% tariffs on all

Forecasts for Reserve Bank of Australia interest rate cuts ramped higher in the wake of Trump’s tariff trade war announcement on Wednesday. ANZ see the RBA cutting by 25bp at the next meeting, in May then further cuts in July and August The current cash rate is 4.1% (was cut from 4.35% in February). Three

Australia ends daylight saving this weekend. Clocks will be turned back an hour on Sunday, April 6. We call it Autumn here. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

Trump posted on Truth Social and he seems to think this is the worst of it. We’ll see: THE OPERATION IS OVER! THE PATIENT LIVED, AND IS HEALING. THE PROGNOSIS IS THAT THE PATIENT WILL BE FAR STRONGER, BIGGER, BETTER, AND MORE RESILIENT THAN EVER BEFORE. MAKE AMERICA GREAT AGAIN!!! Maybe I’m reading too much

SPX daily It was a bloodbath today, particularly for any company that has supply chains in southeast Asia or exposure to the consumer. There was barely a company that was spared. The tariffs certainly aren’t hitting all companies but the market is pricing in a recession risk. How far it needs to tilt towards that

The Washington Post has obtained an internal talking points memo from the White House that says the new tariff regime shouldn’t be characterized as a tarting point for negotiation. Instead, they should be characterized as a response to a national emergency. The report also said Trump himself told advisors that the tariffs are not about

Comments from Cook: Sees growth slowing, inflation progress to stall on tariffs Sees more emphasis on upside inflation risks Appropriate to maintain current policy for now while watching data Now is time for Fed to be patient but attentive Fed policy is well positioned to respond to changes in the economy Inflation data already showing

The USDCHF had been confined in a range within a range (see red boxes on the chart above). The price moved outside the first box at 0.8794 and then got to the low of the 2nd box at 0.8755. There was some stall near that area in the Asian-Pacific session, but then broke lower and

Barclays has flagged downside risks to its $74 per barrel forecast for Brent crude in 2025, citing the escalating global trade war. Analysts at the bank noted that mounting trade tensions are likely to dampen global economic activity and oil demand, tilting the risks to its price outlook to the downside. *** Hard to say

More commentary from Fed Vice chairman Jefferson: still substantial uncertainty around trade uncertainty can weigh on spending, investment decisions. Will be important to take our time and think about impact. When assessing policy changes, I try to focus on collective policies, including physical, immigration, regulation. Net effect of all policies that influence view on monetary

The NASDAQ index is now down -5.42%. That takes the percentage loss to the highest since the 2020 pandemic. In 2022 the index fell -5.16%. In June 2020, the index fell -5.27%. At the start of the pandemic in 2020 the index fell -12.32% on March 16. That decline far outpaced any other daily laws

Understanding the rhythm of financial markets can give traders a significant edge. Seasonalities—lasting trends that repeat themselves during some periods of the year—tend to influence the value of assets and the overall market state. Identifying these cycles allows traders to adapt their strategies better and make more informed decisions. Understanding seasonal patterns Seasonality in the

In the long-term, you need to expect US markets to do really well All the policies of the US were designed to make the world rich and us poor I don’t think there will be exemptions, will not be effective for countries to retaliate against Trump tariffs Countries need to change their rules to allow

S&P 500 future are down 3.7% today. It could be worse. One of the biggest decliners is Nike, which is down 14% after tariffs hit almost every country it manufactures in. The company reportedly has 150 factories in Vietnam and a half-million workers. No one was expecting a 46% tariff on Vietnam and it will

The VIX has risen again, this time to 30, which is a huge number – the highest since August 5 last year. It rises at times of chaos in the stock market, Trump said he expected the collapse. *** Repeating this …. For info on the surge in VIX. So what, you ask? The TL;DR

Republicans mulling the creation of a new tax bracket for those earning US$1 mn or more. talks have included a new top rate that would be around 39% to 40%. Sceptical of this one. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

JPM analysts say Trump’s combined tariff hikes amount to a 22% increase—comparable to the largest U.S. tax rise since 1968. As a result, the bank has raised its estimated risk of a global recession to 60%, up from 40%. The note highlights concerns that the economic impact could be worsened by potential retaliation, supply chain

Prior was -$131.4 billion (revised to -$130.7 billion) This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

Prior week 224K revised to 225K. Initial jobless claims 219K versus 225K estimate 4- week moving average of initial jobless claims 223K vs 224.25K last week Continuing claims 1.903M vs 1.870M estimate 4-week MA of continuing claims 1.871M vs 1.868M last week Prior week continuing claims 1.847M The largest increases in initial claims for the

No need to be in a hurry on policy rate adjustments Current policy rate well-positioned to deal with risks, uncertainties Could retain current policy restraint for longer, or ease policy, depending on inflation progress and job market Policy rate is now somewhat restrictive Labor market solid, well-balanced Latest data shows inflation moving sideways Longer-term inflation

S&P 500 Technical Analysis: Key Bear Flag Breakdown & Channel Levels to Watch Market: S&P 500 E-mini Futures (ES) Timeframe: 4-Hour Chart Date: April 3, 2025, post Tariff Man Chaos! But this still shows the order. Source: ForexLive.com (to be evolving to investingLive.com later this year) Overview – S&P 500 Technical Analysis Today This S&P

The Fed is in a tough spot. If these tariffs last, it could lead to 5% inflation in the US this year. Now many would argue that’s a temporary shock that policymakers would look thorough but that harkens back to the the ‘Team Temporary’ talk that is a stain on Powell’s legacy. The market is

Perceived trade imbalances do not take into account digital services Indirect consequences of tariffs may lead other countries in Asia to boost exports to Europe The US economy and consumers will become poorer and weaker We will react in organised and unified manner Response to Wednesday’s announcement of US tariffs will be more massive than

French president Macron is on the wires. Calls on all big European businesses to freeze all investments in the US in retaliation for brutal and unjustified import duties imposed by Pres. Trump it’s important that all investment, plan or already announced, should be suspended until we have clarified things with the US. Macrons warns of

Good morning, afternoon and evening all. Any charts, technical analysis, trade ideas, thoughts, views, ForexLive traders would like to share and discuss with fellow ForexLive traders, please do so:. Take care in equities, especially if you are of a mind to BTD still. We don’t want any of this out there in ForexLive land ….

Trump spoke with media on his plane, AF1: he’s open to deals if countries offer something “so phenomenal” “the tariffs give us great power to negotiate” The background to this is that Trump aides and allies spent the last 24 hours saying the tariffs were non-negotiable. That Trump President was not intending to make deals.

The USDJPY is under pressure after breaking through several critical technical levels, shifting the near-term bias firmly to the downside. The break below the converged 100 and 200 bar moving averages on the 4-hour chart, along with the 50% retracement of the September low to the March high (149.22–149.30), marked the initial bearish trigger. That

The firm says that should the latest set of tariffs remain in place, it could push the US economy “to the precipice of a recession”. Well, that’s the hot take after Trump’s announcement yesterday it would seem. From earlier: Barclays warns of strong possibility of a US recession this year JP Morgan say Trump tariffs

EURUSD is up 2.38% on the day — its largest single-day percentage gain since December 2015, when the pair rose 3.06%. Technically, the rally is pushing the pair toward key resistance from the 2024 highs, which span from 1.1200 to 1.1213. So far today, the high has reached 1.1144. Looking back to 2024, there’s a

Prior was $3.97 billion (revised to $3.13 billion) Exports $70.11 billion vs $74.21 billion prior Imports $71.63 billion vs $71.08 billion prior That’s a drag on Canadian growth. This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

Prelim was 54.3 Prior was 51.0 The ISM services index is due at the top of the hour. This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

Momma needs a new pair of shoes, but they will probably cost a lot more. Looking at all the prices of the stocks of major shoe manufacturers like Nike, Puma, Adidas, Deckers, Crox, UnderArmour, On Holding. Add in Lulu and Footlocker, you are seeing big price declines. All are exposed to the tariffs with manufacturing

Prior was 53.5 Data: Employment 46.2 vs 53.9 prior New orders 50.4 vs 52.2 prior Prices paid 60.9 vs 62.6 prior Business activity 55.9 vs 54.4 prior Supplier deliveries 50.6 vs 53.4 prior Inventories 50.3 vs 50.6 prior Backlog of orders 47.4 vs 51.7 prior New export orders 45.8 vs 52.1 prior Imports 52.6 vs

Eyes are on the yuan for a potential devaluation as a way to retaliate against US tariffs. It’s a major risk that Deutsche Bank has highlighted, with 7.30 as a line in the sand. WSJ China correspondent Lingling Wei writes: Financial officials in Beijing may be positive on deval — which would free up some

As with XAUUSD, April started with optimism for the oil market, as Brent crude oil rose above $75 per barrel for the first time since February 21. The driver remains the same as in recent weeks: rising geopolitical risks. Traders are increasingly hedging against the possibility that Trump will make good on his threats to

The stand out winner across major FX is JPY. USD/JPY is down more than 150 points from earlier highs, dropping under 148.80 as I update. Yen crosses tracing out the same sort of pattern (EUR/JPY is circa 161.00 … massive slump). Yen loving the chaos, standing out as a ‘safe haven’. Sheesh …! This article

Rate cuts by year-end Fed: 82 bps (76% probability of no change at the upcoming meeting) ECB: 70 bps (90% probability of rate cut at the upcoming meeting) BoE: 60 bps (76% probability of rate cut at the upcoming meeting) BoC: 57 bps (71% probability of no change at the upcoming meeting) RBA: 83 bps

The latest wave of tariff announcements by Trump is likely to put short-term pressure on risk assets, including equities in both the U.S. and Asia, according to Tai Hui, Chief Market Strategist for Asia Pacific at J.P. Morgan Asset Management. Hui notes that investor concerns are shifting from inflation to the risk of an economic

The healthcare industry is undergoing a significant transformation, and VSee Health, Inc. (Nasdaq: VSEE) is at the forefront, pioneering AI-driven telehealth solutions that are revolutionizing patient care. As a leader in digital health technology, VSEE is redefining the $787 billion digital healthcare market with cutting-edge innovations, major partnerships, and a rapidly growing client base that

More, this form an unnamed White House official: A 10% baseline tariff will be imposed on all countries, with higher reciprocal tariffs for the worst offenders. Countries will be charged half of the calculated reciprocal tariff rate, which considers both tariffs and non-tariff barriers. Products covered by Section 232 tariffs (autos, steel, aluminum, copper, lumber)

Final Services PMI 52.5 vs 53.2 expected Prior 51.0 Final Composite PMI 51.5 vs 52.0 expected Prior 50.5 Key findings: Modest expansion of service sector business activity New work rises for first time in three months, but job cuts continue Steep increase in input prices, driven by higher payroll costs Comment: Tim Moore, Economics Director

Trump has announced a 10% baseline tariff on all U.S. imports, along with higher “reciprocal” tariffs on about 60 countries, including key allies and major trade partners like China (34%) and the European Union (20%). Whiter House press sec Leavitt says the 34% rate on China will be added to the current 20% rate for

The moves on the session are turning rather outsized now but they’re all in one direction. And that is the dollar falling out of favour as it continues to be pummeled across the board. EUR/USD is now up 1.9% to 1.1060 and USD/JPY down 1.9% as well to 146.43 on the day, with the latter

A Beginner’s Guide to Investing in Gold — Why It Matters and How to Start A clear, beginner-friendly guide to help young investors understand why gold is still relevant and how to invest in it. “Gold has been a store of value for thousands of years — and it still plays a role in modern

When Trump was set to win the presidential election last October, this is one chart that clearly shows how China chose to respond. The fear was an escalation in trade conflict as he takes office. And when that didn’t turn out too bad in January, the Chinese yuan managed to find some stability. That is

In terms of monetary policy, this uncertainty means we need to be extremely prudent when determining the appropriate stance. This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at www.forexlive.com.

How to Trade the S&P 500 Today Using tradeCompass Without Chasing Tariff News Current Price at Time of Analysis: 5,542.5 Today’s tradeCompass analysis focuses on the S&P 500 E-mini Futures (ES) and offers a clear, technical trading plan — deliberately avoiding the noise and uncertainty around today’s Trump tariff headlines. After last night’s dramatic market

That being said, they are still maintaining their forecast for China’s full year 2025 GDP growth at 4.5%. I’m not sure how their estimate works on that but okay. This was their previous baseline forecast in November last year: This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

Shares serious concern whether US tariffs are compatible with trade agreements Will continue to demand US to reconsider tariff measures Will not hesitate to directly approach US president Trump if appropriate In other words, they won’t be doing anything and that is as expected considering the nature of their alliance. Japan was slapped with 24%

Trump speech on more tariffs: Trump says he’ll sign an EO applying reciprocal tariffs – what they do to us we’ll do to them Awaiting anything of substance, stay tuned. imposes 10% across the board is the leak (via Wall Street Journal) This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

The Canadian dollar looks like the winner of Trump’s tariff announcement. The announcement was unclear on whether Canada would be included in the 10% baseline but CNBC confirms that both Mexico and Canada have exceptions and will remain under the current regime that allows USMCA-compliant goods to continue to enter the US tariff-free. That’s a

Will respond along with Europe to Trump’s tariffs Could target digital services in reciprocal measures First response likely to be in mid-April, then another one in late April Fairly certain Trump tariffs will have a recessionary impact in certain areas The retaliation is the next thing to watch out for, then any further escalation if

Now is not the time for a backgrounder on the institutional adoption of crypto, such as Bitcoin, and how this has brought it in closer correlation with more established risk assets. But … its been sold off alongside the moves in stocks, risk FX and more: ETH is under US$1800 as I post. If you

US tariffs will impact economic growth US tariffs to negatively impact euro area GDP growth rate by 0.3% to 0.4% in first year The inflation path remains unchanged This seems to be the start of the narrative building towards a rate cut in the next two weeks. But markets are already quite prepared for that

The Trump’s announcement yesterday was without a doubt worse than expected. There were some positive caveats like reciprocal tariffs not coming into effect immediately and so on, but there’s a limit to optimism and hopefulness. Right now, the market is pricing a slowdown in global growth which is generally negative for crude oil prices as

Stock market implosion in response to Trump’s latest economic policy. ES and NQ both lower. Big time. Globex has reopened for ‘overnight’ trade. Here’s the full list tariff war declaration This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

Australian trade data for February 2025 Australia trade balance for February 7.46bn AUD surplus expected surplus 5.6bn AUD prior surplus 5.62bn AUD exports -3.6% m/m prior +1.3% imports +1.6% m/m prior -0.3% more to come This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

B2BROKER, a global fintech company offering advanced solutions for financial institutions, has partnered with Devexperts, a global software developer for the capital markets industry. This collaboration integrates the DXtrade trading platform into the B2CORE ecosystem, expanding the range of supported platforms and offering brokers and traders advanced tools for trading and account management. The integration

Services PMI 52.0 vs. 52.5 expected Prior 53.0 Composite PMI 50.5 vs. 51.9 prior. Key findings: Business confidence dips amid softer inflows of new work Export conditions near stabilisation Operating expenses rise at sharpest rate for 11 months Comment: Commenting on the final PMI data, Jonas Feldhusen, Junior Economist at Hamburg Commercial Bank, said: “In

European Commission President von der Leyen US tariffs are a major blow to the world economy The consequences will be dire for millions of people around the world All businesses will suffer There seems to be no order in the disorder Agrees with Trump that others are taking unfair advantage of the current rules EU

Prior +0.8%; revised to +0.7% PPI +3.0% vs +3.0% y/y expected Prior +1.8%; revised to +1.7% Looking at the breakdown, there were increases in prices for intermediate goods (+0.4%), energy (+0.2%), capital goods (+0.2%), and non-durable consumer goods (+0.1%). That is just marginally offset by a decline in prices for consumer goods (-0.1%). This article

Deutsche is saying that amid the latest developments, there is a risk that major shifts in capital flow allocations take over from currency fundamentals. In turn, that will produce “disorderly” moves in the currencies market and trigger a confidence crisis in the US dollar. I’m guessing what they mean is the sort of thing we’re

US Treasury Secretary Bessent in an interview with CNN: advises other countries to not retaliate to US tariffs to avoid escalation Bessent says he ‘does not know’ how stock markets will react to tariffs Bessent spoke earlier: Bessent: Trump might be to let things settle for awhile rather than negotiate tariffs This article was written

People’s Bank of China USD/CNY reference rate is due around 0115 GMT. The People’s Bank of China (PBOC), China’s central bank, is responsible for setting the daily midpoint of the yuan (also known as renminbi or RMB). The PBOC follows a managed floating exchange rate system that allows the value of the yuan to fluctuate

Japan Trade Minister Muto: Held online meeting with US Commerce Secretary. Told US Secretary new US tariffs would bring negative impact on US economy as well. Told US counterpart new tariffs announcement is “extremely regrettable.” Need to analyse content and examine impact on Japan economy. Will ask US strongly to exempt Japan from tariff measures.

Prior 50.6 Composite PMI 50.9 vs 50.4 prelim Prior 50.2 The headline continues to point to a marginal growth in the euro area services sector to wrap up Q1. The feeling is that it’s not the best but not the worst either. In other words, the euro area economy continues to stagnate in general. There

US-based employers announced a surge in job cuts last month, with the number of planned layoffs rising by over 60% compared to February to 275,240. That’s the highest level since the recession during the pandemic as the DOGE impact continues to reverberate. Challenger notes that there were 497,052 layoffs in Q1 – the highest since

The supposed countermeasures were initially planned for 1 April but then were delayed. For some context: EU says to respond to US steel, aluminum tariffs with countermeasures EU says considering to delay first set of counter-tariffs against US to mid-April This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

Stocks Affected by Trump Tariffs – and What You Can Do President Trump’s surprise announcement of sweeping new tariffs is shaking up global markets and triggering significant moves in key US stocks. The new tariff policy introduces a minimum 10% import tax and much higher tariffs on specific trade partners. China: 34% Japan: 24% Vietnam:

Japan’s services sector stagnated in March, with the Jibun Bank / S&P Global Services PMI falling to 50.0 matching the neutral level that separates growth from contraction from February’s 53.7 better than the earlier flash estimate of 49.5 The data suggests that momentum from earlier in the year has faded, as companies reported weaker market

At the end of last year, they argued for the Fed to cut rates four times in 2025 before scaling that back amid Q1 developments. But now with Trump’s tariffs, they are putting their previous forecast back on the table in expecting Powell & co. to deliver between 75 bps to 100 bps of rate

European Union President von der Leyen to make a statement on US tariffs Thursday morning – 5am Brussels time, 3am GMT Just so long as she knows I already said to kiss your a** goodbye … Its kiss your a** goodbye time for the global economy – massive tariff war declared She’ll be responding to

In adddtion to 10% blanket tariff, Trump has announced “half” tariffs on countries in reaction to tariffs on US goods. Below is the chart of some of the tariffs. He went big. If the products are made the US there will not be any tariffs. Shares which were up have turned lower with the QQQ

China will increase retail prices of gasoline and diesel starting Thursday, following recent rises in international crude oil prices, according to the National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC). The price of gasoline will rise by 230 yuan (approximately USD 32) per tonne, while diesel will increase by 220 yuan per tonne. The NDRC has called

The dollar is falling further in European trading as it fails to find any shelter in the first wave of the market reaction towards Trump’s tariffs. Worries about the tariffs driving the US economy to the brink of a recession are outweighing everything else, with traders clearly not liking the sort of uncertainty that Trump

The ECB will have to reassess the situation. US tariffs threaten global economic stability. This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at www.forexlive.com.

The pair is now up to its highest levels since early October as it breaks the November and March highs. That puts the 1.1000 level in contention as the dollar is slumping across the board currently. As much as Trump’s tariffs are supposedly meant to squeeze other countries, there is growing fear that it is

Exchange rate reaction hard to predict See some risks for Swiss economy due to tariffs As mentioned earlier here, it’s not about tariffs equality or fairness. The reciprocal tariffs formulation is all about addressing the trade deficit. The SNB will have a lot of tinkering to do especially if a stronger Swiss franc is going

U.S. to impose 10% across-the-board tariff on all imports Higher rates to be levied on other nations considered bad actors on trade I haven’t seen the report itself yet but Bloomberg is also confirming it. There are some big moves on this, with the US dollar slumping and the euro, pound and commodity currencies rallying.

Reserve Bank of Australia Financial Stability Review: US tariff uncertainty poses substantial headwinds to global growth. Tariffs could have a chilling effect on business investment and consumer spending. Risk of disorderly correction in global asset prices, putting pressure on non-bank lenders. Hedge funds particularly vulnerable to repricing of risk due to highly leveraged positions. US

And no change to policy is expected. So, carry on as you will. This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

As we continue to digest Trump’s tariffs, the dollar looks to be the early onset casualty as it continues to slump across the major currencies board today. But the loonie can also rejoice a bit as Trump didn’t double down on tariffs against Canada in his latest salvo. That makes just the 25% tariffs last

Former U.S. President Donald Trump’s decision to raise tariffs on Chinese imports to 54% — a move that combines a newly imposed 34% reciprocal tariff with a prior 20% levy — brings the trade relationship closer to the “worst case scenario” outlined during his campaign, according to analysts at ING. Tariffs on certain goods, including

Europe will respond appropriately and proportionately. Trump’s decision on tariffs is fundamentally wrong. This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at www.forexlive.com.

The CHF as well as the JPY are generally considered as safe havens in the FX space. They appreciate in times of risk-off sentiment and depreciate when the mood is positive. Trump yesterday surprised with worse than expected reciprocal tariffs that triggered a wave of risk-off flows on expectations of a global slowdown. The US

UBS estimates that if the full slate of proposed tariffs is permanently implemented, U.S. inflation could rise to around 5%, as import costs filter through to consumer prices. – I guess if the Fed views the jump as ‘transitory’ they will cut on the growth scare factor. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at

Final Services PMI 50.9 vs. 50.2 expected Prior 51.1 prior. Final Composite PMI 51.3 vs. 50.9 expected Prior 50.4 Key findings: Germany Services PMI Business Activity Index at 4-month low. Germany Composite PMI Output Index at 10-month high. Rates of input cost and output price inflation ease to five-month lows Comment: Commenting on the PMI

Well, the USTR published this in terms of how they calculated the tariffs to be applied. And as deciphered by many others by now, it seems to be that the way the tariffs are formulated is that it is a means to balance out the trade deficit. It’s not anything to do with tariffs fairness.

Why Global Investors Care About the US Dollar — And What a Dollar Confidence Crisis Means for You A beginner-friendly guide on why the US dollar matters in investing — and what could happen if trust in it starts to crumble. “The US dollar isn’t just America’s currency — it’s the world’s financial backbone.” Why

Eurostoxx -2.1% Germany DAX -2.2% France CAC 40 -2.1% UK FTSE -1.2% Spain IBEX -1.2% Italy FTSE MIB -1.7% It’s looking rough out there for stocks with US futures also being hammered down. S&P 500 futures are lower by 3.1% as tech shares are leading the declines there. Nasdaq futures are down 3.5% currently. The

I prepared this post earlier but hung off on it awaiting the news from Trump. He didn’t disappoint …. yowza! Anwya, here is what’s ahead on the data agenda if you are interested. The Australian PMIs are done and dusted: services: 51.6, ahead of expected (see screenshot below) composite: 51.6 also This snapshot from the

RBC’s Su-Lin Ong says the direct impact of Trump’s 10% tariff on Australia is likely limited, but broader trade and investment uncertainty could prompt a more dovish stance from the RBA. While the central bank’s cautious tone this week points to a gradual easing cycle, Ong notes that escalating global risks may increase the chances

Barclays is warning that current economic signals are pointing towards serious challenges ahead for the US economy. Adding that all of this makes the risk of a downturn much more likely in the coming months. As such, they are expecting US GDP growth for this year to slow to 0.1% on a quarter-on-quarter basis. This

Reuters reports on some of the details of the auto tariffs from Trump, which go well beyond autos and parts. A big change is that they will include a 25% tariff on all computer imports, including laptops and desktops. That was $138.5 billion in 2024 and was not something that was rumored. Other parts of

Prior 45.3 Composite PMI 48.0 vs 47.0 prelim Prior 45.1 The revisions point to a modest improvement in French business activity towards the end of Q1, though still in contraction territory. That said, one must take into context the disappointing momentum in following up the Olympics boom in Q3 last year. So, there’s that. In

He says that the bloc will act in a “calm and unified” manner but also won’t stand idly by if they are unable to reach a fair deal with the US. As we watch out for retaliatory measures in the days/weeks ahead, negotiations are also an important moving part to be mindful of. From yesterday:

Supports keeping current policy rate in place as long as upside risks to inflation continue Inflation expectations have risen, coming policy changes hold upside risks Takes comfort that increases in long-term inflation have so far been small Recent high inflation, consumer expectations may be more sensitive to further price increases This is obviously being ignored

What Is Currency Risk in Investing — And Why It Matters to Your Portfolio A simple, practical guide for young investors to understand how currencies can impact their investing returns. “When you invest globally, you’re not just betting on stocks — you’re betting on currencies too.” What Is Currency Risk in Investing? Currency risk (also

Crude oil futures settled $71.71. That’s up $0.51 or 0.72%. The gains came despite a surprise jump in U.S. crude inventories, which rose by 6.2 million barrels last week according to the EIA, compared to analyst expectations of a 2.1 million barrel drawdown. The market’s focus appears to be shifting toward geopolitical risks, including new

As things stand, traders are nearly fully pricing in a rate cut for June at the moment. The odds of that are at ~94% currently. As for the year itself, traders are now pricing in ~84 bps of rate cuts and that’s a step up from around ~75 bps yesterday. It’s not a lot but

Good morning, afternoon and evening all. Any charts, technical analysis, trade ideas, thoughts, views, ForexLive traders would like to share and discuss with fellow ForexLive traders, please do so: This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

The document at Trump’s tariff announcement puts China’s tariff rate at 34%. That’s a sliver of good news in an otherwise negative announcement on tariffs as there was talk it would be 50%. Now what’s not clear is whether this new tariff is on top of tariffs like fentanyl (25%) that are already in place.

China Commerce Ministry: China firmly opposes US tariffs and will resolutely take countermeasures to safeguard its rights and interests China urges the US to immediately cancel unilateral tariff measures and properly resolve differences with trading partners through equal dialogue Many trading partners have expressed strong dissatisfaction and clear opposition This article was written by Eamonn

Prior +0.3% Core CPI +0.9% y/y Prior +0.9% Swiss inflation continues to keep thereabouts with core annual inflation hugging near the 1% mark. The market pricing believes that the SNB is done for the year, although Trump’s tariffs might be a threat to that as they are causing the Swiss franc to move higher. That

more to come Yen crosses much lower (higher yen) Gold, too, making gains: This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

Trump has scattered tariffs all over the place but many of the losers in this are countries that don’t send much to the US anyway. Some critical partners: China 54% European Union 39% Japan 24% India 26% South Korea 25% Vietnam 49% Now there is an important caveat here in that none of those go

It’s not too much of a change from the previous revision here at the end of March. But as mentioned before, this still marks a second year running that the average wage hike exceeds 5%. And even though it’s not quite the 6% desired, it’s still something that the BOJ can use to push their

JPMorgan economists cautioned on Wednesday that the sweeping tariff measures announced today could significantly disrupt U.S. economic momentum, raising the risk of a near-term recession. On a static basis, the newly unveiled policy is estimated to generate just under $400 billion in revenue — equivalent to roughly 1.3% of GDP — making it the largest

Jens Nordvig from Exante makes a good point today about the tariffs: Strategic events, such as a historical shift in trade policy, will not be digested that quickly. It could take weeks and months and even quarters, before we have their full effects embedded. Even if we were to get some sort of non-negotiable, permanent

Prior 56.2 Composite PMI 54.0 Prior 55.1 The growth in the Spanish economy is starting to moderate towards the end of Q1. The good news is that firms are still retaining a positive outlook but cost pressures are still holding up, even if input prices did ease slightly from February’s one-year high. But in any

In the European session, we will get the Swiss CPI and the final Services PMIs. In the American session, we have the US Challenger Job Cuts, the US Jobless Claims, the Canadian Services PMI and the US ISM Services PMI. The data in unlikely to matter much as the focus is on Trump’s tariffs announcement

German DAX futures -2.0% UK FTSE futures -1.5% Meanwhile, S&P 500 futures are down 3.0% as tech shares lead the downside with Nasdaq futures down 3.4% currently. The risk aversion is translating to bids in the Japanese yen and Swiss franc mostly in FX. USD/JPY is down 1.4% to 147.10 while USD/CHF is down 1.1%

What a difference six months can make in terms of how the market perceives things. Back in October, traders took to the prospect of Trump’s presidency and tariffs in the fear that it will stir up inflation. There weren’t too much concerns about the health of the global economy with the US also looking poised

Spoos are getting beaten up in a 3.5% fall. Nasdaq future are down 4.1%. It’s safe to say the market doesn’t like what its heard on tariffs. I wonder if we get some leaks about negotiations ahead of April 9. Technically, that level is a big one or it takes us to the lowest since

Deutsche Bank is out wit ha quick note on the tariffs: Quick summary of President Trump’s announcements: tariffs on the American continent are lower than expected, European tariffs are as expected, tariffs on Asia significantly higher than expected. There should be a straightforward FX re-adjustment between Asia FX (weak) and Latam FX + CAD (strong)

The major US indices are closing higher ahead of the Pres. Trump tariff news. The gains were led by the NASDAQ index which advanced by 0.87%. The S&P index rose by 0.67%. A snapshot of the closing levels shows: Dow industrial average +235.36 points or 0.56% at 42225.32 S&P index up 37.90 points or 0.67%

China’s services sector activity rose to a three-month high in March, with the Caixin/S&P Global Services PMI climbing to 51.9, up from 51.4 in February. The improvement was driven by stronger domestic demand and a pickup in new business, marking the fastest pace of growth in new orders since December. The data aligns broadly with

The leak from the Journal of 10% across the board prompted selling the USD and buying of risk, but the details now provided have seen such flows reversed. The 10% is a minimum (see table below in pic). more to come Pic via Twitter This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

Here is a live feed of Trump’s tariff announcement. This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

The People’s Bank of China (PBOC), China’s central bank, is responsible for setting the daily midpoint of the yuan (also known as renminbi or RMB). The PBOC follows a managed floating exchange rate system that allows the value of the yuan to fluctuate within a certain range, called a “band,” around a central reference rate,

Most major FX was slammed lower in the wake of Trump’s announcement of massive increases in tariffs. The moves have been pretty much retraced, FX recovering. EUR has done more than recover, its up above 1.09 as I update. USD/JPY, though, lost ground from above 150.25 (early highs) to below 148.00 and that has continued.

European Commission President von der Leyen says US tariffs a major blow to world economy ICYMI – China will raise the retail prices of gasoline and diesel from today RBC says rising global trade uncertainty may push RBA to turn more dovish UBS warns full tariffs could push US inflation to 5% Trump’s 54% tariffs

I’ve been posting the first page of the list, here is the full thing: Second page: Gotta say I have HATED being the pessimist on this trade war, I took Trump at his word and thought it would be ugly. It is. Risk markets are being offered as I update. This article was written by

I would advise none of the countries to retaliate as these numbers are high-end We can see if there is a different floor (from those announced) The mindset from Trump might be to let things settle for awhile Says he has no plans to travel to China I’m not a part of the negotiations so

ADP March US employment +155K vs +115K expected US February factory orders +0.6% vs +0.5% expected US tariffs will be in bands of 10%, 15% and 20% — report Trump auto tariffs due to take effect at midnight Elon Musk is likely to leave DOGE soon – report Mexican Pres.: It will not impose tit-for-tat

Federal Board Governor Kugler in Q&A now: Fed does not comment on administration policies but looks at how it will impact mandates for prices and jobs There may be reasons why tariffs have more prolonged effects Tariffs on aluminum for example effect almost every sector of the economy through supply chains, will take longer to

EURUSD moved higher during the U.S. session, pushing away from the 100- and 200-hour moving averages and briefly breaking above the swing area between 1.0848 and 1.0859. However, the upside momentum fizzled, and the pair has since fallen back within that zone. Despite the pullback, buyers still hold the advantage, with the pair remaining above

Canadian Prime Minister Carney Says Trump’s tariff announcement has preserved a number of important elements of our relationship Says we are going to fight these tariffs with countermeasures Says we will act with purpose and with force Earlier: Canadian dollar jumps as Canada exempted from new US tariffs CAD update: This article was written by

more to come Finally getting some substance from Trump after a long and winding introduction: 34% on imports from China 34% on imports from Taiwan 25% on all imports from South Korea, 26% from India, 20% from EU This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

Trump announced a 10% baseline tariff on all imports, with higher rates for major trading partners, including 34% on China and 20% on the EU. ‘Risk’ was slammed lower, with yen and gold benefitting. EUR/USD trade under 1.0820 and has now recovered to above 1.0910 as I post. This is only going to be a

ES futures update: This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt confirms that the 34 percent tariff on China is ON TOP of the previous 20 percent. So that means the rate on China will be *54* percent when these tariffs take effect. This will hugely impact consumers in the US. Imagine a 50% price hike for washing machines and

Here is the table distributed as a summary of the new tariffs, below. baseline 10% tariffs take effect April 5 higher reciprocal rates will take effect April 9 the higher rates apply to about 60 countries Risk FX has been slapped back lower. EUR/USD hit 1.0920 and thereabouts, its back under 1.0820 now This article

Tariffs won’t go away after today but at some point, the market will shift all its attention to taxes and the budget. Trump has made many promises but one of them is to cut the deficit, and many members of Congress have staked their careers on that point. It’s going to be hard. Reuters report

Barclays expects today’s tariff announcement to significantly raise US trade barriers, pushing the average tariff rate to 15%. The bank anticipates global growth to decelerate in 2025 as a result, with consumers likely boosting savings amid higher prices and economic uncertainty. Key Points: Tariff Expectations: 30% tariffs on China, 10% on other countries in baseline

A report from Reuters says: Trump admin is considering revoking China de minimis exemption (it had done this, then delayed it) This was reported on by CNBC earlier The auto tariffs are evidently in the Federal Register. This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

B2BROKER, a global fintech company offering advanced solutions for financial institutions, has partnered with Devexperts a global software developer for the capital markets industry. This collaboration integrates the DXtrade trading platform into the B2CORE ecosystem, expanding the range of supported platforms and offering brokers and traders advanced tools for trading and account management. The integration

Early reports (or scoops) said that Pres. Trump has told his inner circle that Elon musk will be stepping back in the coming weeks from his current role. Now White House Press Sec. is saying that the “scoop” is garbage. This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

Mexican president Sheinbaum: It will not impose tit-for-tat tariffs Mexico will gradually comply with US water treaty after criticism from US State Department This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

The major US indices are now trading higher. A snapshot of the market currently shows: Dow Jones Industrial Average: 42,104.87 ▲ 114.91 (+0.27%) S&P 500: 5,647.43 ▲ 14.36 (+0.25%) Nasdaq Composite: 17,499.63 ▲ 49.74 (+0.29%) The small-cap Russell 2000 is also higher by 13.85 points or 0.69% at 2026.09. As a point of comparison, at

The New York Times is reporting that Amazon is said to be making a bid to buy TikTok in the US. TikTok has a Saturday deadline to change its ownership structure (which may have been extended. Trump wants control in the US and certainly does not want it shutdown). Shares of Amazon are now up

A member of the Pres. Trump administration has officially confirmed that Amazon as put in a bid to buy TikTok. Shares of Amazon are currently up $5.39 at $197.52. That is just off the high of $197.64. Amazon’s 200 day moving average is within sites at $200.31. Last week, the price moved above that moving

The USD is steady vs the EUR with only a 28 pip trading range from low to high (vs 83 pip average over the last month). The GBPUSD is higher (lower USD) and in the process moved back above its near converged 100/200 hour MAs. THe USDJPY is lower (lower USD) after a successful test

The forex market is a financial giant with more than $7.5 trillion in daily trading volumes. Though experienced traders navigate this complicated landscape with ease, new players in the market find themselves weighed down by intricacies of market action, liquidity structures, and trading mechanisms. In such a competitive market scenario, access to the best forex

BYD cuts prices in Japan – seeks to gain market share Goldman Sachs sees yen longs as the best hedge against US recession and tariff risks Federal Board Governor Kugler speaks on inflation and monetary policy making on Wednesday Trump’s so-called “Liberation Day” unlikely to resolve U.S. tariff uncertainty European Central Bank big wheels Lagarde,

Prior was +77K Goods producing K vs +42K prior Service providing K vs +36K prior Pay gains for job stayers % vs 4.7% prior Pay growth for job changers % vs 6.7% prior This is a nice bounce back from a poor reading in February. This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

It’s a big day in markets and I would encourage you to read my primer on what is really expected by the market today around tariff numbers. At the same time, I see some clues out there. Let’s dig in. Yesterday, a CNBC report highlighted some strategies: Blanket 20% tariffs Tiered system of three different

Today is ‘Liberation Day’ for Donald Trump and his team but it’s also a big one for Elon Musk and the company that made him famous. The consensus on Q1 deliveries is 377-380K and that will be a decline from 386,810 in the first quarter of 2024. The more-bearish analysts are at 350-355K and I

Inflation data from South Korea for March 2025 +0.2% m/m expected +0.18% (yes, to two decimal places, go figure), prior +0.3% +2.1% y/y +2% expected, prior also +2% The core reading is +1.9% y/y prior +1.8% This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

Data today showed that Tesla deliveries plunged late in Q1 as Elon Musk hitched himself to Donald Trump and his DOGE campaign. The richest man in the world had said he would stay at the White House for months but now there are indications that he’s become a political liability. He tried to swing yesterday’s

Sky News editor Ed Conway reports — citing a source close to the White House — that there will be three tariff bands: 10%, 15% and 20%. The bands will differ by both country and industry depending on how the White House views barriers to trade. I think this would be a problematic set of

The Amazon/TikTok news is giving the US stocks a bit of a boost. The S&P is up 24.74 points or 0.44%. The NASDAQ index is up 130 points or 0.74%. Meanwhile, yields have reversed from being down about 4– 6 basis points to now up about 4– 5 basis points. A snapshot of the US

The crypto fuss has been around since 2009, with the creation of the first token, but only started gaining much popularity between 2013 and 2017. By March 2010, the value of Bitcoin was less than $0.01, but by the end of 2013, it had surpassed $1200. When you look at Bitcoin in 2025, the value

Tesla delivered 336,681 vehicles in the first quarter, according to a company release. The consensus on deliveries was 377-380K but the whisper number was around 355K. Those compared to 386,810 in the first quarter of 2024, which is a 13% decline. Shares of Tesla were down 2.3% prior to the report and fell further afterwards.

BYD has announced its first price cuts in the Japanese market, slashing the cost of its pure electric vehicles—including the popular Dolphin model—by around 300,000 yen (approximately US$2,000), according to Japanese media reports. The move comes as Japan’s EV market faces stagnant growth. BYD aims to boost its market share through more aggressive pricing, signaling

Holzmann is a hawk but lately he has been going along with the dovish message. Now, he’s taking a more-hawkish line despite the market pricing in an 80% chance of a cut on April 17. This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

The USDCHF continues to trade within a well-defined range, with repeated attempts to break above the 0.8840–0.8848 zone (see red-numbered circles on the chart) failing to gain traction. Today’s failed push above resistance has kept sellers active, with the pair drifting back lower while remaining within the broader consolidation area. The downside move has brought

If we were to define the first quarter of 2025 in a single word, it would definitely be uncertainty. David Ingles, Chief Markets Editor at Bloomberg, just published a chart on his X account showing the United States Categorical Economic Policy Uncertainty Index in the last 40 years. The chart speaks for itself. It went

This adds to the remarks from Lagarde and Rehn earlier. For the ECB, it’s now all about watching for Trump’s tariffs and what will take place after. That will shape their expectations for the next policy decision on 17 April. As things stand, traders are pricing in ~79% odds of a rate cut. This article

Major European indices are closing mostly lower, and well off low levels for the day. A snapshot of the closing levels shows: German DAX -164.90 points or -0.73% at 22375.09. At session lows, the index is down -400.72 points France’s CAC -17.53 points or -0.22% at 7858.84. At session lows, the index is down 83.39

The one thing we all know is that Trump will deliver his big announcement later in what he has been calling as Liberation Day in the US. It will come at 2000 GMT (4pm ET) at the White House, where he will provide an overview of his plans to shake up the global trade regime

Jacqui Heinrich from Fox reports: Trump frustrated with Putin over “slow-rolling” ceasefire talks “Path forward” being discussed in ongoing negotiations Sanctions enforcement currently weak (rated “3 out of 10”) Baltic Sea interdictions of Russia’s shadow fleet (70% of illicit oil sales) seen as potential pressure point This post sort of exposes sanctions overall and how

As the clock ticks toward the stock market open, the EURUSD is breaking to the upside. Major US indices in pre-market trading are showing sharp declines S&P index -59.32 points Dow industrial average -342 points NASDAQ index down -255 points Traders will be nervous once again ahead of the tariff news at 4 PM ET.

Prior was -3341K Gasoline -1551K vs -1720K exp Distillates +264K vs -1013K Refinery utilization -1.0% vs +0.7% exp These are disappointing numbers but not a shock as the API numbers late yesterday showed: Crude +6037K Gasoline -1628K Distillates -11K Crude was flat ahead of the report. This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

Tech sector steadies while consumer cyclical stocks show promise The U.S. stock market today presents a stable landscape for tech stocks, while the consumer cyclical sector exhibits notable resilience. Meanwhile, mixed outcomes in financial services continue to highlight diverse market dynamics. 📈 Technology Sector: Stability in Sight The technology sector shows a relatively steady performance

German DAX futures -0.2% UK FTSE futures -0.3% This comes as US futures are also lower, with S&P 500 futures down 0.2%. That said, we have seen investors fade tariff fears somewhat in the past two days. So, keep that in mind. But do also consider that there is plenty of money sitting on the

Tariffs aren’t good for the global economy. Inflation is very close to target. There is still a bit of work to do on inflation. Predictability is in very short supply at the moment, we simply don’t know what US deal will be with the rest of the world. There is a lot less excitement about

The USD got under some pressure last Friday following the ugly University of Michigan survey where consumer sentiment got revised lower and long-term inflation expectations higher. The market responded by increasing more aggressively the expectations for more easing from the Fed which triggered some short-term weakness in the greenback. That reaction was eventually reversed as

Bloomberg is reporting: EU is reportedly planning emergency measures in reaction to tariffs Working short-term support proposals, alongside plans to advance competitiveness and reforming key sectors Measures will be dependent on US announcement Although they are “emergency” measures, they make sense for the EU. The EU is not competitive. It is good news that they

Headlines: Major currencies see light changes as traders wait on Trump tariffs What are the interest rates expectations ahead of the tariffs announcement It’s the known unknowns that is gripping markets with uncertainty The first quarter depicted in a single chart ECB’s Lagarde: Tariffs aren’t good for the global economy ECB’s Rehn: Trade protectionism is

Prior -2.0% Market index 243.6 vs 247.5 prior Purchase index 158.2 vs 155.8 prior Refinance index 710.4 vs 752.4 prior 30-year mortgage rate 6.70% vs 6.71% prior Mortgage applications fell slightly again in the past week, owing to a decline in refinancing activity. That offset the slight increase in purchases activity last week, as the

Eurostoxx -0.6% Germany DAX -0.6% France CAC 40 -0.6% UK FTSE -0.2% Spain IBEX -0.3% Italy FTSE MIB -0.5% This comes as US futures are also lower as risk sentiment is observing more caution ahead of Trump’s tariffs announcement later today. As a reminder, the announcement will be at 2000 GMT (4pm ET) so it

The AUDUSD is trading near a crucial inflection point as price approaches a key resistance zone between 0.6303 and 0.6319. This area hosts a powerful cluster of technical indicators, including the 100- and 200-bar moving averages on the 4-hour chart and the 100-day moving average. Just above, the swing area extending to 0.6336 serves as

1630 US Eastern time – Federal Reserve Board Governor Adriana Kugler speaks virtually on “Inflation Expectations and Monetary Policymaking” before the Griswold Center for Economic Policy Students and Julis-Rabinowitz Center for Public Policy and Finance 2025 Public Talk due at 1630 US Eastern time (2030 GMT) This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

US equities are down 25 points after the open, which is a halving of futures. The dip buyers have waded in over the past couple trading days as the weak hands are shaken out. I can see the argument for a better or a worse-than-expected announcement today. One thing I’m sure of is that this

Australian February building permits -0.3% m/m expected -1.5%, prior +6.3% +25.7% y/y prior +21.7% *** After some optimism on this earlier: Bessent says Trump will announce a maximum for tariffs, countries can then bring them down that saw AUD trade a little higher, topping just over 0.6290 a few hours after, it has subsided. All

The USDCAD extended higher on Tuesday, briefly breaking above the March 20 high at 1.4403 and reaching a peak of 1.4414. However, the rally was short-lived. Headlines suggesting tariffs would be less severe than expected triggered a sharp reversal, pushing the pair back below key technical levels — namely, the 100-bar (1.4341) and 200-bar (1.4323)

Prior was +1.7% (revised to +1.8%) Factory orders ex transport +0.4% vs +0.3% prior Durable goods orders: Durable goods orders 1.0% vs 0.9% preliminary Durable goods ex trans 0.7% vs 0.7% preliminary. 0.1% last month Durable goods ex defense 0.8% versus 0.8% preliminary. +3.7% last month Nondefense capital ex air for February -0.2% versus -0.3%

There’s been lots of coverage for the US NFP report coming up on Friday but it might not matter much for the market. All the data by definition is backward looking. On the other hand, the market is a forward looking machine. This is something that all the best traders in the world will tell

The noise around tariffs continues as we await the official announcement at 16:00 ET/20:00 GMT. The French Government Spokeswoman Primas said that France expects “powerful” tariffs in the range of 20-25%. Although this might not be the catalyst, the USD caught a bid with risk assets turning lower. The EURUSD price action in the past

The People’s Bank of China (PBOC), China’s central bank, is responsible for setting the daily midpoint of the yuan (also known as renminbi or RMB). The PBOC follows a managed floating exchange rate system that allows the value of the yuan to fluctuate within a certain range, called a “band,” around a central reference rate,