Prior +0.2% GDP Q1 Y/Y +1.2% vs +1.1% expected Prior +1.2% This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at www.forexlive.com.

“I Do as the President Says”: Musk’s Edgy Pulse Check on Federal Employees In a moment dripping with Muskian wit at President Trump’s live Cabinet meeting today, Elon Musk, not shy of controversy, explained the blunt reasoning behind his recent email “pulse check” to the federal workforce. “Do you have a pulse? Do you have

The major US stock indices are except open lower with the NASDAQ index under the most pressure. In premarket trading, the futures are implying: Dow industrial average -350 points. The index rose 300.03 points yesterday S&P index -76 points. The index rose 32 points yesterday NASDAQ index -330 point. The index rose 95.18 points yesterday

US MBA mortgage applications w.e. 25 April -4.2% vs -12.7% prior Reminder: Trump will speak at an “Investing in America” event at 16:00 ET/20:00 GMT Italy April preliminary CPI (HICP) +2.1% vs +2.3% y/y expected Eurozone Q1 preliminary GDP +0.4% vs +0.2% q/q expected China’s Xi: China needs to adapt to changing situations Switzerland UBS

Prior month +2.0% Pending home sales 6.1 vs 1.0% estimate Index 76.5 vs 72 last month According to NAR Chief Economist Lawrence Yun, “Home buyers are acutely sensitive to even minor fluctuations in mortgage rates. While contract signings are not a guarantee of eventual closings, the solid rise in pending home sales implies a sizable

The comments from the Visa conference call regarding the consumer and the global macroeconomy were really something. They highlight that consumers are employed and that, as long as they remain that way, they’re going to keep on spending. Some direct quotes from executives on the call: “In Q2 and through April 21, we have not

The other German state releases around the same time: Hesse CPI +xx% vs +2.4% y/y prior Brandenburg CPI +xx% vs +2.3% y/y prior Saxony CPI +xx% vs +2.5% y/y prior North Rhine Westphalia CPI +xx% vs +1.9% y/y prior Baden Wuerttemberg CPI +xx% vs +2.2% y/y prior This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at

Trump congratulated PM Carney on his election win the two agreed on the importance of Canada & the US working together as independent, sovereign nations agreed to meet in person in the near future This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

SMCI – which has been criticized for their accounting practices in recent past – preannounced their earnings estimates, and it is not good: Revenues $4.5 – $4.6 billion versus previous estimate of $5.0 – $6.0 billion EPS $0.29 – $0.31 versus previous estimate $0.46 – $0.62. According to the release, during Q3 some delayed customer

Prior was +155K (revised to +147K) Goods producing +26K Service providing +34K Pay gains for job stayers 4.5% vs 4.6% prior Pay growth for job changers 6.9% vs 6.5% prior This is the worst reading since July and adds a downside risk to Friday’s non-farm payrolls report. This article was written by Adam Button at

Core PCE (excluding food & energy): Prior was +2.8% (revised to +3.0%) Core m/m +0.0% vs +0.1% exp Unrounded core PCE +% vs +0.38% m/m prior Supercore (services ex-shelter) vs +3.34% y/y prior Services inflation vs +0.375% m/m prior Headline PCE Headline PCE +2.3% y/y vs +2.2% expected Deflator +0.0% m/m vs +0.0% expected Unrounded

Will continue to sell $42 billion in 10s This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

The USDCAD has moved higher in today’s trading, pushing up to test both the 200-hour moving average at 1.3845 and the 100-hour moving average just above at 1.3854. These levels now define the near-term technical ceiling. A firm move above both MAs—with momentum—would open the door to further upside targets. The first level to watch

Trump will deliver ‘Investing in America’ remarks on Wednesday afternoon, US Eastern time Chinese markets closed tomorrow, Thursday, through to reopening on Tuesday next week US media report – Elon Musk no longer working from White House Australian Treasurer Chalmers says says the market expects more interest rate cuts * China Caixin Manufacturing PMI for

ANZ business survey, business confidence and activity both lower than in March. April 2 was when Trump announced his huge tariffs, though he did back track on them somewhat. Business confidence fell 9 points to 49.3 Expected own activity fell 1 point to 47.7 ANZ comments: past own activity (the best GDP indicator in the

Prior -12.7% Market index 223.7 vs 233.5 prior Purchase index 146.6 vs 153.4 prior Refinance index 649.0 vs 673.6 prior 30-year mortgage rate 6.89% vs 6.90% prior This is never a market moving release. Of course, as long term interest rates rise, mortgage applications fall. The mortgage market index and the US30Y yield are inversely

The previous month’s PMIs, March 2025, showed the fastest in a year ahead of US tariffs. The April results have fallen back, as was expected. There is probably worse to come in the months ahead as the tariff impact bites deeper. China March official Manufacturing PMI 49.0, this is a 16-month low expected 49.8, prior

US March advance goods trade balance -161.99BB vs -147.85B prior US April consumer confidence 86.0 vs 87.5 expected JOLTS March job openings 7.192M vs 7.480M estimate US advanced wholesale inventories for March 0.5% versus 0.5% last month. Estimate 0.0% Lutnick: Tariff adjustments give automakers time to grow US plants Trump says he will focus on

When an extraordinary event occurs, the first thing on investors’ minds is how it will affect the markets and, more importantly, how to avoid losses and profit from the situation. The widespread blackout that Spain and Portugal witnessed across the countries on Monday is one such event. The exact cause of the power grid collapse

The People’s Bank of China (PBOC), China’s central bank, is responsible for setting the daily midpoint of the yuan (also known as renminbi or RMB). The PBOC follows a managed floating exchange rate system that allows the value of the yuan to fluctuate within a certain range, called a “band,” around a central reference rate,

NVDA Stock Alert: Critical Levels Amid New AI Model Developments NVIDIA (NVDA) stock has experienced significant downward pressure, declining over 4% recently and now approaching a critical support level at $103.50. Investors are encouraged to closely monitor this key technical area, as it may indicate whether sufficient buying interest emerges to stabilize the stock and

Prior +0.9% The agency notes “This new rise in prices should be explained by the increase in services prices, in particular transport, and food. Conversely, energy prices should fall again in April, while prices of manufactured products and tobacco should remain virtually unchanged over the month.” Inflation hasn’t been a problem for France for a

The US personal income and consumption report is due at 10 am and the GDP report offers some insights into what is coming. The first hint is on inflation and those numbers were hot in the GDP report, which means upside risks. Guy Lebas from Janney sees that rolling in at +0.4% in light of

Prior month 0.4% Canada GDP for February -0.2% versus expectations of 0.0% Goods producing industries -0.6% versus +1.1% last month last month Services producing industries -0.1% versus +0.1% last month 12 of 20 industries declined in the month of February Advanced estimate for the month of March 0.1% details of the report: Following two consecutive

French Finance Minister Lombard says he discussed idea of reciprocal zero tariffs with Scott Bessent, and Bessent told him this was not unrealistic. This would be great news if we eventually get to such resolution. The market meanwhile continues to rally on positive expectations as the de-escalation remains the trend. This article was written by

Japan March retail sales % y/y expected +3.5%, prior +1.4% and % m/m prior +0.5% more to come This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

Good morning, afternoon and evening all. Any charts, technical analysis, trade ideas, thoughts, views, ForexLive traders would like to share and discuss with fellow ForexLive traders, please do so: This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

Gold Futures Analysis for Today – TradeCompass Current Price of Gold Futures, at the time of this analysis: 3,316 Market Context: Gold is hovering just above today’s and yesterday’s Value Area Low, and just beneath a cluster of key levels—including the VWAPs of April 27th and 28th (both at 3,317). This confluence is acting as

Prior 103.9 (revised to 103.2) No surprise here as business confidence got hit all over the world after the April 2 announcement. You can see in the chart below how the business confidence just kept on improving steadily with the SNB rate cuts. Now that we have the trade war uncertainty and global growth slowdown

A notable detail from Howard Lutnick’s interview on CNBC today was that the US has a trade deal with one country ready to go — pending ratification from a country’s parliament and leadership. That was followed up by Fox Business’ Charlie Gasparino who wrote that “word on Wall Street” was that it was India or

Prior +0.8%; revised to +0.2% German retail sales fell back in March and that follows a more negative revision to the February numbers as well. The year-on-year reading at least still shows a 2.2% increase in retail sales compared to March last year. This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

In the video above, I kickstart the US day with a technical look at the 3 major currency pairs – the EURUSD, USDJPY and GBPUSD. For EURUSD, yesterday’s price action found support at the 100-hour moving average, with several failed attempts to break above the 200-hour moving average. Today, the pair opened between the two

People’s Bank of China USD/CNY reference rate is due around 0115 GMT. The People’s Bank of China (PBOC), China’s central bank, is responsible for setting the daily midpoint of the yuan (also known as renminbi or RMB). The PBOC follows a managed floating exchange rate system that allows the value of the yuan to fluctuate

Prior 26k Unemployment rate 6.3% vs 6.3% expected Prior 6.3% This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at www.forexlive.com.

Inflation data from Australia for the January – March quarter and for March month, 2025. Headline inflation: +2.4% y/y expected 2.2%, prior 2.4% +0.9% q/q expected %, prior 0.2% Trimmed mean (a measure of core, or underlying inflation) 2.9% y/y expected 2.9%, prior 3.2% 0.7% q/q expected 0.7%, prior 0.5% Weighted median (an alternative core

Japan Industrial Production for March 2025, preliminary, % m/m expected -0.4%, prior 2.3% and % y/y prior +0.1% more to come This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

China needs to adapt to changing situations. Urges measures to stabilize employment, markets and expectations. China to adjust economic plan based on global change. To promote transformation of traditional industries. There’s nothing new here. Chinese officials continue to repeat the same old stuff but we haven’t really seen any strong action yet. This article was

orderFlow Intel: Nasdaq Futures Analysis Now Nasdaq futures (NQ) are currently trading at a critical juncture around 19560, a key area anchored by yesterday’s VWAP—a crucial dynamic benchmark widely respected by professional traders. The current positioning around this level suggests moderate bullish momentum, though clarity is needed to confirm direction. Today’s price action has been

Japan govt official on factory output: Environment surrounding production remains highly uncertain March motor vehicle production down 5.9%m/m due to lower exports, part supply disruption Some manufacturers expressed concern about U.S. tariffs Not heard directly U.S. tariff measures have forced manufacturers to change production plan CopyThe data is here, its pretty poor: Japan March 2025

Prior +0.3% The bulk of the decline owes to energy prices. If you strip that out, import prices were only seen down 0.3% on the month. Looking at the breakdown, there were also falls in prices for intermediate goods (-0.4%) and capital goods (-0.4%). This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

Prior -0.1% This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

China Caixin Manufacturing PMI for April 2025 comes in lower than March but better than expected at 50.4 expected 49.9, prior 51.2 more to come Earlier from China, the official PMIs: China April official Manufacturing PMI 49.0 (expected of 49.5) This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

Prior +0.1% GDP Y/Y +0.6% vs +0.4% y/y expected Prior +0.6% The agency notes “The first quarter of 2025 has had one working day less with respect to the previous quarter and two working days less than the same quarter of previous year. The quarter on quarter change is the result of an increase of

The Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) data is a key measure of inflation that tracks changes in the prices of goods and services purchased by consumers. It is reported monthly by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) and is a critical tool used by the Federal Reserve to assess inflation and guide monetary policy. There are

Prior +2.1% Core CPI Y/Y 2.1% vs 1.7% prior The agency notes: “The increase of the growth on annual basis of All-item index was mainly due to the prices of Regulated energy products (from +27.2% to +32.9%), of Services related to transport (from +1.6% to +4.4%), of Unprocessed food (from +3.3% to +4.2%) and of

The euro has fallen out of bed. Apart from what has already been posted there is no obvious smoking gun. Chinese PMIs dropped, indicative of Trump tariffs biting. And it won’t just be China suffering such drops. USD/JPY is a touch better bid also. GBP/USD is a little lower also. US equity index on Globex

Prior 0.0% The average house price in the UK is seen easing a little to £270,752, with Nationwide noting that the market is “likely to remain a little soft in the coming months, following the pattern typically observed following the end of stamp duty holidays”. This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

In the European session, we have the French, German and Italian inflation figures, which shouldn’t sway the ECB from cutting in June unless we get a resolution on the trade war front. We will also get the Eurozone Flash Q1 GDP reading but as it’s always the case for the GDP data, it’s old news.

Prior -0.2% GPD Q1 Y/Y -0.2% vs -0.2% prior The agency notes “The gross domestic product (GDP) grew by 0.2% in the first quarter of 2025 compared with the fourth quarter of 2024 – following adjustment for price, seasonal and calendar variations – after decreasing at the end of 2024 (-0.2% in the fourth quarter

A slew of earnings have been released with mixed results. Starbucks was a disappointment. Snap is also lower in despite what seems to be a beat. Snap Inc (SNAP) Q1 2025: Adj. EBITDA 108.4M (BEAT; exp. 65.4M), Revenue 1.36B (MET; exp. 1.35B). The company omits Q2 guidance due to uncertainty. The stock is trading down

There are a couple to take note of on the board for today, as highlighted in bold. The first one is for EUR/USD at 1.1390 and that rests in between the key hourly moving averages of 1.1372 and 1.1401 at the moment. The expiries could help to lock in price action before we get to

The S&P index rose for it 6th consecutive day. Yesterday the NASDAQ index snapped a five day went streak with a modest point. Over all the major indices were up in trading today. A snapshot of the closing levels shows: Dow industrial average rose 300.03 points or 0.75% at 40527.62. S&P index up 32.08 points

The market is growing more dovish on the outlook for rates. Two-year yields shown here are on track for the lowest close since September when the market was wrapped up in the idea of rate cuts and job losses. It’s an interesting day to look at the Fed funds curve because there is a meeting

Australian Treasurer Chalmers says the market expects more Reserve Bank of Australia interest rate cuts after today’s inflation figures he doesn’t see anything in the data to substantially alter market expectations Chalmers wants more rate cuts from the RBA, and, more importantly, he wants the voting public to expect the same and to give his

Via twitter: — Expectations I had seen centred on: Headline crude +0.5mn barrels Distillates -1.7mn bbls Gasoline -1.2 mn This data point is from a privately-conducted survey by the American Petroleum Institute (API). It’s a survey of oil storage facilities and companies The official report is due Wednesday morning US time. The two reports are

Toyota Motor and Alphabet’s Waymo have announced a new partnership to co-develop autonomous driving platforms and explore innovations in next-generation personally owned vehicles (POVs). Toyota and Waymo will jointly create an autonomous driving system for future models. The collaboration will also focus on improving self-driving capabilities in privately owned vehicles. Both companies are looking at

US Treasury Secretary Bessent is speaking in an interview with Fox ‘News’: No trade deal is done until Trump announces it Trump needs to sign off on 18 key trade deals, he is involved in talks There is a plan for changes to auto tariffs The tax deal will make auto loans for US-made cars

Goldman Sachs chief economist Jan Hatzius in a note late last week, htat he is not confident forecasting a level for the dollar: “I often dodge questions about the dollar. A large body of academic literature and my own experience as an economic forecaster have taught me that predicting exchange rates is even harder than

Major indices have moved to new session highs. The Dow industrial average leads the chart with the gain of 0.87%. The S&P and NASDAQ are running neck and neck with a rise of 0.68%. Even the small-cap Russell 2000 is which along nicely with a gain 0.80% today. Chatter that there is deals on the

UK Lloyds Business Barometer for April 2025 comes in at a three month low of 39% prior 49% long-run average is 29% gauge of economic optimism fell by 13 points to 28% 70% of businesses expect to raise prices in the coming 12 months Info comes via a Reuters report, which adds in on a

China will be on holidays from May 1 to May 5 (five days in total). This is to celebrate Labour Day. Markets will be closed tomorrow, Thursday, May 1, 2025, and reopen on Tuesday next week. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

Trump is speaking at a rally. Trump is speaking across topics. Tariffs, China and what have you. Its no secret he is not a fan of Powell. Trump wants lower rates and so far Powell has not accommodated him. Trump brought Powell on to head the Fed in early 2018. This article was written by

It’s a busy session ahead for data. China’s April PMIs are expected to fall back a little from March, both the official and the unofficial. Trump tariffs should continue to bit in the months ahead. I posted on some analyst takes on jobs and economic activity: Goldman Sachs says Trump tariffs could endanger 16 million

John Paulson is billionaire hedge fund manager who leads his own firm, Paulson & Co. He likes gold a lot higher: near $5,000 an ounce by 2028 … the “high $4,000 range” Paulson says that estimate was put to him, adding that “It’s a well-informed prediction. I think that’s a reasonable number”. Citing: “As central

“If there Is no progress, US will step back as mediators in this process” I pray this war ends but Russia is in an interesting spot here. They can stall and it sounds like Trump would possibly turn to secondary sanctions if it falls apart but at the same time, he would drop military support

If auto makers can’t get parts we don’t want to penalize them There is great support for a tax deal Not at all worried about the auto industry India coming along great, think we have a deal on tariffs He will visit Africa He will speak to Australians More signs point to the first tariff

This isn’t a big surprise given the politics and reality in Europe, along with its clout. The US seems to be trying to use the UK as a wedge but all trade negotiations in the EU are tough. The deadline that matters for Europe is the 90 days after Liberation Day. If the US ramps

All of the deals will be incredibly smart and incredibly thoughtful If we cut our trade deficit in half, that’s 2 percentage points of GDP Americans are going to work in factories as technicians You’re going to see the greatest domestic resurgence in auto manufacturing in the next two years, and I’ll wear it You’re

The People’s Bank of China (PBOC), China’s central bank, is responsible for setting the daily midpoint of the yuan (also known as renminbi or RMB). The PBOC follows a managed floating exchange rate system that allows the value of the yuan to fluctuate within a certain range, called a “band,” around a central reference rate,

There aren’t any major expiries to take note of on the day. As such, trading sentiment will continue to be driven by the same factors over the last two weeks. That being the overall risk mood and potential headline risks. For today though, the loonie is also going to face risks from the Canadian election.

Prior was 4.7% y/y Monthly house price index +0.4% vs +0.4% expected Monthly home price indicators from the FHFA: +0.1% m/m vs +0.2% prior (revised to +0.3%) +3.9% m/m vs +4.8% prior (revised to +5.0%) This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

Spain PM says to release 3 days worth of Strategic Oil Reserves This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

Major European indices ended the session with mixed results. Italy’s FTSE MIB led the way, rising 1.09%, supported by strength in auto and banking stocks. Reports suggesting auto tariffs may be less severe than expected helped lift sentiment, with notable gains from Stellantis (+4.0%) and Iveco (+2.3%). Banks also performed strongly, including UniCredit (+1.3%), Intesa

Crude Oil Analysis: Bearish Pressure Intensifies, Key Levels to Watch Crude Oil futures (CL) are currently trading at $61.13, reflecting an ongoing bearish sentiment across multiple timeframes. Integrating daily chart analysis, intraday volume profile, VWAP indicators, and order flow data reveals a cohesive picture of sustained bearish pressure, making the upcoming price moves highly significant.

Tariff revenue could be used for tax cuts I think tariffs will generate substantial revenues I learned to ignore survey data in my 35 years in the investment business Had substantial talks with Japan India easier to negotiate with than other countries Asia trading partners have been the most forthcoming Tax bill will give certainty

The USDJPY has edged to a new session low of 141.96, slipping just below the earlier low of 142.00. On the 4-hour chart, the pair has now moved into a key swing area between 141.64 and 142.11, a zone that dates back to August 2024. While price action dipped below this area in September 2024

Prior was -11.3 Revenue index vs +1.3 prior This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

People’s Bank of China USD/CNY reference rate is due around 0115 GMT. The People’s Bank of China (PBOC), China’s central bank, is responsible for setting the daily midpoint of the yuan (also known as renminbi or RMB). The PBOC follows a managed floating exchange rate system that allows the value of the yuan to fluctuate

Goldman Sachs has lowered its USD/CAD forecasts, citing resilient Canadian data, a supportive fiscal policy stance, and reduced expectations for BoC easing. While Canada’s exposure to the US limits CAD’s outperformance on the crosses, Goldman expects CAD to outperform USD over the rest of 2025. Key Points: First Signs of Trade War Impact Emerging: Canada’s

The Liberal party have won the election in Canada with 154 seats won vs 131 for the conservatives. There are 31 seats which have not been called. While the Liberals will form the government, it remains unclear if they will control a majority of votes in the House of Commons or require support from other

Synopsis: Goldman Sachs has revised its USDCAD forecasts lower, citing stronger-than-expected Canadian data, a supportive fiscal policy stance, and diminished expectations for Bank of Canada (BoC) rate cuts. While Canada’s close ties to the U.S. may limit broader gains on the crosses, Goldman expects the Canadian dollar to outperform the U.S. dollar through the remainder

Lutnick will also appear on CNBC at 2 pm ET Adjustments to auto tariffs are aimed at allowing domestic automakers time to growth US plants and employment Executive orders growth out of detailed conversations with domestic car makers Manufacturers of domestic autos will get a 15% offset for the value of those vehicles against parts

The major US stock indices are closing mixed/little changed in up-and-down trading today. A late day rally took the price back into positive territory for both the Dow and the S&P indices. The NASDAQ index so close marginally lower but well off its lows for the day. The final numbers are showing: Dow industrial average

Prior -14.5 Economic confidence 93.6 vs 94.5 expected Prior 95.2 (revised to 95.0) Industrial confidence -11.2 vs -10.1 expected Prior -10.6 (revised to -10.7) Services confidence 1.4 vs 2.2 expected Prior 2.4 (revised to 2.2) Again, no surprise with consumer and business confidence surveys slumping amid the trade uncertainty. Focus remains on trade negotiations and

The AUDUSD has broken decisively below a key technical zone that includes the 100-hour moving average, the 200-hour moving average, and a well-tested swing area between 0.6390 and 0.6395 (highlighted by red-numbered circles on the chart). That area had served as a support and resistance pivot multiple times in March/April, and the latest break tilts

Prior month 0.3% This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

Around 2.2% of China’s GDP is directly impacted by U.S. tariffs, according to a note from Nomura economists. They estimate that the U.S. accounted for 14.7% of China’s total goods exports in 2024, a figure that rises to 15.2% when including re-exports through Hong Kong, and to 20.6% when factoring in rerouted trade flows. After

The GBPUSD is extended another new high as the stocks move to a close and the day to an end. The pair is extending above the high from last week at 1.3423. The high off my chart from September 2024 reach 1.34333. The high price to reached 1.34393. That takes the price to the highest

JOLTS Job Openings: Lower Prior month 7.568 M revised to 7.480M Job openings 7.192M vs 7.480M Hires: Slightly Higher. Good for employment Total hires: 5.411 million (versus 5.370M last month) Hires rate: 3.4% (unchanged from last month) No significant changes across industries Total Separations: Lower. Good for employment Total separations: 5.137 million (versus 5.316M last

The US GDP report is due out tomorrow and the consensus is -0.3% but I suspect the market shifted to a worse number in light of the poor trade balance data released today. “After this morning’s Advance Economic Indicators release from the US Census Bureau, the standard and alternative model nowcasts of the contribution of

The USDCHF is trading in a neutral zone, caught between the 100-hour moving average at 0.8271 and the 200-hour moving average at 0.82105. After a sharp decline earlier in April, the pair found repeated support in the 0.8097–0.8128 region, ultimately forming a base after they failed break to April lows at 0.80389. That led to

The USD is higher as the US trading session begins. The 3 major currency pairs have the USD up around 0.40% retracing some of the declines seen yesterday. US yields are marginally higher. The pairs also failed on technical breaks yesterday with the EURUSD and the USDJPY moving outside their 100/200 hour MAs (they are

The U.S. Dollar, the world’s reserve currency and the ultimate safe-haven asset, is now the world’s worst-performing major currency in 2025. Octa Broker explains why. The historical role of the U.S. dollar as the world’s leading safe-haven currency is under threat. Despite rising macroeconomic uncertainty, investors are fleeing the U.S. dollar, defying conventional safe-haven flows.

A report last week said China was considering waiving ethane tariffs, along with some other goods. Now Reuters reports that it’s official. The problem with ethane is that it was used to make plastics and putting on tariffs just drove up the costs of Chinese plastic goods. This article was written by Adam Button at

Sector Overview Today’s stock market heatmap reveals a mixed bag of performances across various sectors, with the technology sector demonstrating notable resilience. Microsoft (MSFT) stands out with a rise of 0.67%, showcasing investor confidence amidst fluctuating market dynamics. Similarly, Apple (AAPL) has managed a modest gain of 0.41%, maintaining its appeal despite broader market uncertainties.

Step by step rate cuts may continue. It will depend on what happens with inflation, which depends on what happens with the labour market. This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at www.forexlive.com.

The buyers in the EURUSD in the early US session tried to extend back above its 200-hour moving average at 1.13999, but fell short of the high for the day at 1.1422. The US session high reached 1.14168. The price has since rotated back down between the 100-hour moving average 1.13659 and the 200-hour moving

Indian, US officials meet in Washington, bilateral trade agreement talks make positive progress. Discussed a pathway for concluding the first tranche of the mutually beneficial trade pact. To hold in-person talks over various sectors from end-May. US Treasury Secretary Bessent said that India might be the first trade deal that they will announce. These are

This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

Results on the east coast of Canada were weaker for the governing Liberal party and Mark Carney but the numbers began rolling in for vote-rich Ontario and Quebec in the last 30 minutes and there has been a shift in fortunes. The Liberals are doing particularly well in Quebec. Expect some volatility in these numbers

The high price in the GBPUSD last week reached 1.34234. That got within 10 pips of the 2024 high at 1.34334. The high price for today just stretched to a new high for the year but only by pip at 1.34244. Nevertheless, the price is stretching higher and keeping the buyers more in control. Get

S&P 500 Futures Deep Analysis and Outlook Current Market Context for ES Over the past two and a half trading sessions, the S&P 500 futures (ES) have traded in a defined range between approximately 5,488 and 5,568. This type of market action typically signifies an equilibrium point, where buyers (bulls) and sellers (bears) wrestle for

India is prepared to offer the US the “forward most favoured nation” clause Indian Govt: Indian, US officials meet in Washington, trade talks make positive progress Eurozone April final consumer confidence -16.7 vs -16.7 prelim ECB consumer survey shows 1 year inflation expectations rising to 2.9% Eurozone March M3 money supply +3.6% vs +4.0% y/y

Prior was 92.5 Present Situation Index 133.5 vs. 134.5 prior Expectations Index 54.4 vs 65.2 prior– lowest since 2011 12-month inflation expectations 7.0% vs 6.2% prior — highest since Nov 2022 Jobs hard-to-get at 16.6 vs 16.1 prior April’s fall in confidence was broad-based across all age groups and most income groups The decline was

When it was announced that Bessent would be at the morning White House briefing, some thought he would be there to talk about an announcement. Evidently not as he re-hashed the usual talking points and added very little in the way of info around tax policy and tariffs. S&P 500 futures have fallen about 25

Eurozone March M3 money supply +3.6% vs +4.0% y/y expected Prior +4.0% Loans to households Y/Y 1.7% vs 1.5% prior Loans to companies Y/Y 2.3% vs 2.2% prior This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at www.forexlive.com.

No time to rest on his laurels. He will be under a lot of scrutiny to see how he handles the ongoing situation with the US. That especially after getting Trump, or should I say the anti-Trump rhetoric, helped to turn their fortunes around. So, first thing’s first Carney is saying that he will be

China’s NDRC allocates second batch of 81 billion yuan in ultra-long special treasury bonds for consumer trade-in programs. — The National Development and Reform Commission of the People’s Republic of China (NDRC) is China’s State Planner. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

India is prepared to offer the US the “forward most favoured nation” clause as sweetener in trade talks. This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at www.forexlive.com.

The price of crude futures settled down $0.97 or 1.54% to $62.05 pressured by rising supply and tariff-driven growth concerns. Last week, OPEC+ surprised markets by adding 411,000 barrels per day in May, while U.S. shale production stayed near record highs.Discounted barrels from Iran and Russia have also boosted Asian inventories, worsening the glut. Technically,

CTV projects Carney’s Liberals will form a minority government. CAD had risen but was retracing even prior to this latest projection: This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

I posted comments earlier from Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi: China’s FM says concession and retreat will only make the bully more aggressive More now on Yi urging BRICS nations to resist U.S. tariff pressure, warns against appeasement. Speaking at a BRICS meeting, Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi urged emerging-market countries to stand firm against

US dollar selling and gold buying took a break last week but they’ve both returned today in tandem. The optimism about a quick resolution to tariffs is fading and the market is feeling angst about US growth again. That has gold up $31 today to $3349, which gets the market back to where it opened

Deutsche Bank preview of Friday’s non-farm payroll report for April: +125k headline forecast (consensus is 135K, prior 228K) jobless rate forecast is 4.2% (unchanged from March) Deutsche Bank says due to the timing of Easter and spring school breaks that March and APril results can be less predictable. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan

Bloomberg (gated) with the report, in brief: Iran is pitching a “trillion-dollar” investment opportunity to the US amid nuclear talks, aiming to ease sanctions and attract American industries to its energy and nuclear sectors. Tehran’s economic struggles have made it more open to cooperation, but corruption and deep mistrust still cloud the negotiations. The US

Adam posted this prior to the election, and it looks like its coming to fruition: The outcome I believe that could offer some downside in the loonie (in the 50-120 pip range) is a Liberal minority held up by the NDP. That would essentially extend the current status quo and leaves the Liberals at the

1 year inflation expectations rising to 2.9% vs 2.6% prior 3 year inflation expectations rising to 2.5% vs 2.4% prior 1 year growth expectations stable at -1.2% The rising inflation expectations shouldn’t be surprising given the trade war. Tariffs are a stagflationary shock. This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at www.forexlive.com.

Potential for sudden stops in capital flows, payment disruption and volatility in currency markets requires robust contingency planning. There are further signs that geopolitical considerations increasingly influence decisions to invest in gold. Recent increase in trade policy uncertainty could reduce Euro Area business investment by 1.1% in the first year and real GDP growth by

The early count is favouring Carney, but its way too early. Betting markets are showing improving odds for Poilievre. Long evening ahead is the best bet! If you are eyeing USD/CAD for clues … not much to go on right now: This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

If US wants resolution, it should stop making threats. US should seek dialogue with China on tariffs. Tariffs war was launched by US. Nothing new here. The Chinese continue to repeat that they are open for dialogue and resolution but they won’t be the first to call since the ‘tariff war was launched by US’.

Bitcoin Analysis and Prediction for Today – Bullish Momentum, Key Levels, and Order Flow Insights Bitcoin futures (MBT Micro Bitcoin Futures) are trading at $95,640 today, slightly above the day’s Volume Weighted Average Price (VWAP) of $95,600. Recent sophisticated order-flow analysis—typically accessible only to institutional traders—highlights strong and increasing buying activity around crucial support zones.

NZ Finance Minister Nicola Willis pre-bidget speech – said Treasury’s latest forecasts show New Zealand’s economy is still expected to grow in the coming year, but worsening conditions — particularly following President Trump’s “Liberation Day” tariffs — have dampened the outlook, cutting expected GDP growth for 2025 and 2026. She warned that weaker growth risks

Goldman Sachs note from Sudnay ICYMI US tariffs on Chinese imports could put as many as 16 million jobs at risk in China “If high US-China tariffs were to persist and Chinese exports were to fall precipitously, labour markets would surely feel the pressure” the 16 million jobs would be involved in the production of

Prior -24.5; revised to -24.3 That’s a decent improvement but GfK warns that tariffs uncertainty is still very much weighing on the broader outlook. So, that will be a bigger factor to consider in the months ahead. This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

It’s a quiet calendar for the session ahead. And not, Japanese markets are closed for a holiday today: Yen traders note – Japan is on holiday Tuesday 12.05pm Sydney time we hear from the RBA 0205 GMT 2205 US Eastern time on Monday, April 28, 2025 Keynote speech by Christopher Kent, Assistant Governor (Financial Markets)

Wall Street Journal says Trump to soften blow on automotive tariffs: preventing duties on foreign-made cars from stacking on top of other tariffs easing some levies on foreign parts used to manufacture cars in the US “Trump is expected to take the actions ahead of a trip to Michigan for a rally outside Detroit on

Via a Barclays note: US credit spreads are likely to widen in the coming six months Due to prevailing highly uncertain environment The background to this is that the spreads have come in over the past two weeks, from extremes after Trump’s April 2 tarif announcements. Since then, Barclays says prospects of trade agreements between

more to come White House official: Trump is expected to soften the impact of his automotive tariffs Preventing duties on foreign-made cars from stacking on top of other tariffs Trump has imposed and easing some levies on foreign parts used to manufacture cars in the U.S. Those actions are expected tomorrow These comments basically a

The latest projection is here: CTV projects Carney’s Liberals will form a minority government. This is less positive for the CAD if accurate. Sure enough …. CAD taking a hit: The USD is more broadly higher also, against EUR, AUD, Kiwi$, GBP This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

Mark Carney’s Liberals are currently ahead of Conservative Party leader Pierre Poilievre. Adam spoke with Reuters about how the Canadian dollar might move on the election. Poilievre and Carney This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

US politics. “GOP Sen. Rand Paul says he expects to have enough votes in Senate to pass resolution to effectively block Trump’s tarrifs. But Paul, who expects the vote Wednesday, attacked Speaker Johnson’s move to block such resolutions as “dishonesty.”” Info comes viua CNN politics reporter: *** The background to this, via Politico: The White

Fundamental Overview Gold got stuck in a range recently as the market is now waiting for the details of the first trade deal, which is said to be announced this week or the next. We reached an inflection point last week following some very positive Trump’s comments and as the stagflationary risk kept on being

In the European session, the main highlight is the Spanish Flash CPI although it shouldn’t change anything for the ECB which is expected to cut again in June. Unless we get some resolution on the trade war, it’s unlikely that the central bank will be swayed from cutting. In the American session, we get the

Projections show Carney’s Liberals have won. Whether he’ll govern in majority or minority is still up for grabs. Still too early for that assessment to be made. CTV says Carney has won the election – too early to say if majority or minority though CAD rising against the USD: This article was written by Eamonn

Spain April Flash CPI Y/Y 2.2% vs 2.0% expected Prior 2.3% Core CPI Y/Y 2.4% vs 2.0% prior Higher than expected figures although they haven’t influenced much interest rates expectations for the ECB, which is expected to cut by another 25 bps in June. This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at www.forexlive.com.

CTV says Carney has won the election – too early to say if majority or minority though. CBC saying the same now also. Carney confirmed as Prime Minister. This is the fourth consecutive win for the Liberals in Canada. The Conservatives were well ahead until Trump began his attacks on Canada. He has a talent

Japan’s leading life insurers are planning to cut their holdings of Japanese government bonds (JGBs) by a combined 1.3 trillion yen ($9.1 billion) in fiscal 2025, marking a shift in strategy amid new capital regulations. According to their disclosed asset management plans, four of the top 10 insurers intend to reduce their JGB positions during

Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi: Concession and retreat will only make the bully more aggressive Dialogue can help resolve differences *** While US officials keep telling us that they are in contact with China over tariffs China is not seemingly responsive. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

Spain Q1 preliminary GDP +0.6% vs +0.7% q/q expected Prior 0.7% Q1 GPD Y/Y 2.8% vs 3.1% expected Prior 3.4% This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at www.forexlive.com.

China’s 2nd batch of 81 bn yuan ultra-long special treasury bonds for consumer trade-in * There is one Canadian election outcome that could hurt the loonie … and here it comes CAD sliding further now after projections show a minority Carney government is likely * Hidden damage: Trump tariffs threaten bigger blow to China’s economy,

Ray Dalio isn’t mincing words: the world is past the point of avoiding a historic realignment in trade, capital markets, and geopolitics. In a stark warning, the Bridgewater founder said hopes for a negotiated fix to the U.S.-led tariff battles are “naive.” The shift away from U.S.-centric trade and investment flows is already happening —

Despite rising concerns that U.S. assets may lose their edge to international markets, Morgan Stanley sees the recent sharp decline in the dollar as a potential lifeline for U.S. equities. “The weaker dollar should benefit large cap U.S. relative EPS revisions (particularly versus Europe and Japan)” “From a global standpoint, we recommend favoring U.S. over

US Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick was seemingly on TV daily in the lead-up to Liberation Day and just afterwards. He delivered a belligerent message and promised that the ‘reciprocal tariffs’ wouldn’t be walked back (they were). Lutnick is a grating personality and has been loose with his words and his criticism of trading partners, causing

POLITICO cite a draft they have seen: UK and the European Union are set to sign a formal declaration committing to “free and open trade” leaked draft seen by POLITICO promises a “new strategic partnership” between London and Brussels based on “maintaining global economic stability and our mutual commitment to free and open trade.” A

I posted earlier on Nikkei: “Japan life insurers set to cut JGB holdings by $9bn” Via a Barclays note now, in brief: Japan’s largest four life insurers plan to reduce or stay flat in JGBs Many life insurers view super-long bonds as attractive compared to their liability costs, but they are unlikely to buy aggressively.

Tesla expects first Semi trucks to enter production by end-2025 at its Nevada gigafactory, with full ramp-up planned through 2026, according to Semi program head Dan Priestley. Annual production capacity is targeted at 50,000 units, as Tesla prepares for high-volume output over the next few quarters. Semi production has faced repeated delays, missing original 2019

US stocks close mixed/little changed A total of 12 of the 30 Dow stocks will announce earnings this week. US Q2 Treasury borrowing estimate soars to $514 billion Gold erases Friday’s drop, range now defined Crude oil settles at $62.05 Lutnick will be let out of the penalty box tomorrow There is one Canadian election

Good morning, afternoon and evening all. Any charts, technical analysis, trade ideas, thoughts, views, ForexLive traders would like to share and discuss with fellow ForexLive traders, please do so: This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

The original US tax bill goal date was Memorial Day. US Treas Sec Bessent now says he hopes for July 4. Bessent met with ‘Big Six’ GOP leaders, including Speaker Mike Johnson and Senate Majority Leader John Thune, at 4 PM to discuss the party-line megabill and the approaching debt ceiling “X-date.” As for the

This week no fewer than 12 of the Dow 30 stocks will be announcing earnings this week including Coca Cola, Visa and Mastercard, Caterpillar, Apple and Amazon. . Below is the complete list, days and times for those releases. Tuesday: Before Open: UPS (UPS) Coca-Cola (KO) After Close: Visa (V) Wednesday: Before Open: Caterpillar (CAT)

Sees $514 billion in Q2 borrowing Previously saw $123 billion Assumes end-of-quarter balance of $850 billion The Treasury says ” The borrowing estimate is $391 billion higher than announced in February 2025, primarily due to the lower beginning-of-quarter cash balance and projected lower net cash flows, partially offset by lower Federal Reserve System Open Market

Trump wants tax cuts in this reconciliation package I think we’ve had enough teases about trade deals, they’re not market moving headlines anymore. This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

It’s been a rough day last Wednesday for the crude oil market as a couple of bearish news weighed on prices. The first catalyst came with the Kazakhstan Energy Minister saying that National interests take priority over OPEC+ interests on output levels. That weighed on the market on higher supply expectations. Later in the day,

The US first quarter GDP report is proving to be one of the toughest ones for economists to forecast since the pandemic. The range from professional economists is -1.5% to +1.7% and the range from models is even wider. Now I would argue that there is so much noise in the report that it shouldn’t

The USDCAD is trading within a narrow 43-pip range today, well below the 113-pip average over the past month. The session low was set early at 1.3849, while the high reached 1.38917. The current price is trading around 1.3868. On the hourly chart, the lows from the past three trading days have consistently found support

Canadians are voting today in an election that’s been dominated by antagonism and threats of annexation from the President of the United States. In general, the stakes are low for the Canadian dollar. That’s in large part because the Liberals switched leaders to Mark Carney and he’s moved the Liberal platform much closer to the

The Nasdaq opened at the best levels since Liberation Day today but that’s been followed by a decent reversal with the index now down 1.0%. The question for investors right now is whether it’s best to bail after a return to pre-tariff levels or whether a new bull market has started? I don’t think the

April credit card data from Bank of America doesn’t show a slowdown in US consumer spending. If anything, there was a slight acceleration in early April after tariffs were announced. 1) This could be tariff front-running 2) Drops in consumer confidence haven’t led to less spending There are certainly reasons to worry about the US

China Gold Association reports gold consumption fell in Q1 down 5.96% to 290,492 metric tons Q1 domestic mined gold output reached 87.243 tons, up 1.49% y/y. Gold ETF holdings in China in Q1 increased by 23.47 tons, up 327.73% y/y Headlines via Reuters more to come This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

The Portuguese grid operator — REN — is out with a diagnosis of what happened with the huge power outage today: Due to extreme temperature variations in the interior of Spain, there were anomalous oscillations in very high volatge lines, something called ‘induced atmospheric vibration’ These osculations cause synchronization failures between the electrical systems It’s

The USDJPY has broken below the 100-hour moving average and has now extended down to test the next key target — the 200-hour moving average, which comes in at 142.274. The low price just reached 142.267. It’s worth recalling that last Thursday, the price moved down toward the 200-hour MA but found willing buyers ahead

German DAX futures flat UK FTSE futures flat US futures are marked down though, with S&P 500 futures lower by 0.4%. Trade headlines will continue to be the main thing to watch out for but there will be other factors in play as well. Month-end flows being one of that but we’ll also have key

HFM, a leading global financial broker under the HFM Group, continues to provide innovative tools to its clients. One of them is its revolutionary HFM Copy Trading Platform, designed to refine trading and set new standards in transparency and trader empowerment. Unlike traditional copy trading platforms, HFM redefines the experience by giving users full visibility

Putin declares truce for Victory Day May 7-11th. In the event of violations of the ceasefire by Ukraine, Russia will respond. More: Russia once again declares its readiness for peace talks without preconditions. I don’t think Russia-Ukraine peace deal is that much of a deal for global markets. At margin, it could be negative for

Crude oil futures are lower by about $-1.22 or -1.94% at $61.80. The low price today has reached $61.69. The high price is at $63.66. Concerns about the potential for increased supply along with slower growth seems to be weighing on the price. Crude oil futures are trading lower, down about $1.54 or -2.08% at

The week will start off slowly in terms of scheduled economic events, but markets will remain alert to any unexpected announcements from the U.S. administration, particularly regarding potential retaliatory tariffs. On Monday, Canada will hold its federal election while on Tuesday, in the U.S., we will receive the JOLTS job openings report and the CB

UK Times, and other media outlets, with the latest from EY Item Club, which is sponsored by the big four accountancy firm EY, EY’s forecast: now expects UK gross domestic product (GDP) to grow by 0.8% in 2025, down from their projection of 1% in February cut its 2026 forecast from 1.6% to 0.9%, citing

There are some larger expiries for EUR/USD and USD/JPY on the board for today. However, they are sitting quite a distance away from the prevailing spot levels. As such, they aren’t going to factor into play unless we get some headlines to jolt price action into life in the session ahead. For now, the overall

Will suggest to the US to return to zero on all tariffs Brother, you already are in an open trade war with the US and the Vice President called Europe ‘pathetic’. This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

Shanghai is seen as the main financial hub in China, so the visit is one that could take on some importance. Even if not from what he will be saying during the visit but at least in terms of the optics. It comes at a time when US and China are still locking horns on

Worst reading since May 2020 Prior was -16.3 Production +5.1 vs +6.0 prior New orders -20.0 vs -0.1 prior Capex -0.4 vs -0.6 prior Employment -3.9 vs -4.6 prior Outlook -28.3 vs -10.7 prior Future production +14.8 vs +27.6 prior 34% of firms reported declining new orders. Comments in the report are very interesting. Chemical

Latvian central bank governor, and therefore a Governing Council member of the European Central Bank, Martins Kazaks. Comments reported via Bloomberg. Bloomberg is gated, but in brief, Kazak’s main points were: US tariff policies may slow down inflation and cause a recession But developments are head are unclear right now “If inflation were to undershoot

I posted on the slump back on Thursday last week: Trucking volumes out of LA (a major port city) have collapsed The Financial Times have followed up, this from earlier: Financial Times on “Demand slump fuelled by Trump tariffs hits US ports and air freight” When I posted that FT piece I hadn’t known it

The USD has been supported recently amid the ongoing de-escalation in trade wars. This has most likely to do with positioning rather than fundamentals. In fact, the short dollar trade got very overstretched, so positive news on the tariffs front could provide a pullback on some unwinding of those trades. In the medium term, the

FoxBusiness Charlier Gasparino is X-ing on the Japan tariff deal and tariff concerns: There is a hold-up in the Japan tariff deal over the level of commitment to buy oil from the Alaska pipeline. Howard Lutnick remains a key player in tariff negotiations and recently argued to a lawmaker that tariffs won’t cause inflation. GOP

If you missed it, there was an ‘ECB sources’ story on the weekend saying that more ECB members leaning towards a June cut. Tariff effects in eurozone are two ways Underlying inflation pressures are easing This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

The Nasdaq index is trading at new session lows, down around 200 points or -1.14% at 17,183.96. Earlier in the day, the index reached a high of 17,467.35, coming within about 27 points of the key 50% midpoint of the move from the December 16 all-time high to the April 7 low. That midpoint level

Gold Futures Analysis for Today – June 2025 Contract – April 28, 2025 Current Price at the time of this gold futures analysis: 3,293.5 Active Bias: Bearish below 3,305.5 Context and Market Insights: Gold futures continue to demonstrate bearish momentum following consecutive failures to reclaim crucial Volume Weighted Average Price (VWAP) and Point of Control

The EURUSD pushed above the 100-hour moving average at 1.1370, a level that had previously stalled rallies twice earlier in the day. After breaking higher, the pair extended gains through the 200-hour moving average at 1.1397 (green line), reaching a high of 1.1413. However, momentum faded, and the price has since rotated back below the

When it comes to reading Trump and his words, we all know that there’s always going to be two sides to the coin. He loves to make a show of things and be flamboyant. But the truth of the matter is more often than not what he will not portray. It’s all about scoring wins

The USDCHF is holding a more bullish bias in early trading today as buyers continue to lean against key technical support. The pair remains above a swing area near 0.8269 and the rising 100-hour moving average, currently at 0.8263. This area has been a clear line in the sand for buyers, helping to stall downside

It’s been a nice week for the S&P 500 as the market rallied by more than 7% on more de-escalation news. The underlying expectations continue to point towards further de-escalation and eventually deals, which is a positive for growth and therefore the stock market. We will likely remain in a “buy the dip” environment until

US dollar losses are accelerating in an ominous sign today. The latest leg lower came after the Dallas Fed manufacturing index fell to the lowest since May 2020. The report was littered with angst about tariffs and uncertainty in the real economy. The market is weighing whether all the poor sentiment numbers are truly indicative

Chinese authorities press conference announce further measures to prompt economic growth and employment. Present are officials from the: National Development and Reform Commission (China’s ‘state planner’) Ministry of Human Resources and Social Security Ministry of Commerce People’s Bank of China Earlier: China exports withstand pressure PBOC deputy governor says will cut RRR, interest rates, at

It is a complicated relationship with China US has had substantial discussions with Japanese allies on trade Chinese exemptions show they want a de-escalation on trade Europeans are panicked about strength of euro 17 important trading partners have made ‘very good proposals’ to avert US tariffs Negotiations with Asian trading partners going very well Says

Bitcoin Analysis Today – Micro Bitcoin Futures (MBT) – April 28, 2025 Current Price: 95,760 (MBT Contract) Market Context and Key Levels for Bitcoin Today: Micro Bitcoin Futures (ticker: MBT) are currently trading at 95,760. Bitcoin futures today are gravitating towards a critical price magnet at 95,930—the Point of Control (POC) from Friday’s trading session.

Sector Overview The U.S. stock market exhibits a mixed bag today, with significant sectoral shifts visible across the spectrum. Of note, the semiconductors sector is seeing substantial declines, casting a shadow over broader technology stocks. Key player Nvidia (NVDA) is down 2.33%, a significant drop that underscores bearish investor sentiment in this pivotal industry. Conversely,

Trump sees no red line that would change tariff policy. “Trump pushed back on the notion, popular among some Wall Street analysts, that financial turmoil – plummeting markets, the threat of a recession, a weakened dollar – would cause him to roll back his tariff policies.” “It always affects you a little bit” he said,

The AUDUSD is showing resilience by holding above the key 100-hour and 200-hour moving averages, currently clustered around the 0.6388 area. This zone also corresponds with an old ceiling. Despite this underlying support, buyers have struggled to gain real momentum. The last 5 trading days has seen the price action trade above and below the

From an interview with Reuters: In a normal armed conflict, both countries should refrain from using nuclear weapons Says would only use nuclear weapons if there is a direct threat to our existence Great, just great. More war is just what the world needs, especially between a country with 1.4 billion people and another with

The economic calendar is, as the headline says, empty. UK house prices is the first item listed for 0600 GMT on Monday, April 28, 2025 (0200 US Eastern time). This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

Japan’s economy minister, Ryosei Akazawa, is the man in charge of negotiations with the US on tariffs. And he’s out saying that their stance has not changed whatsoever, in that they are still demanding a full removal of tariffs. This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

The GBPUSD is extending to new highs and in the process is moving into the upper extreme from last week’s trading. That upper extreme comes between 1.3361 and 1.34233. Swing highs and lows from Monday and Tuesday of last week are around these levels. The high price just reached 1.33707. The current price trades at

B2PRIME Group, a global financial services provider for institutional and professional clients, has announced the appointment of Fernando Wladdimiro as its new Institutional Business Development Manager. He joins the company from State Street, where he held the role of Vice President – eFX Sales & Relationship Management. Fernando joins B2PRIME after more than 7 years

Headlines: Trump sees no red line that would change tariff policy – The Atlantic China’s Foreign Ministry: President Xi and Trump did not have call recently We are still demanding a full removal of US tariffs, says Japan economy minister South Korea says no chance to reach trade deal with US before next presidential election

The USD is little changed to start the new day/week. The dollar is also mixed vs the major currencies. A snapshot currently shows: EUR unchanged JPY +0.30% GBP -0.24% CHF +0.11% CAD unchanged AUD -0.17% NZD +0.07% For the trading week last week,, the greenback was mixed with gains versus the EUR, JPY, CHF and

ECB’s deGuidos is speaking and says : incoming data suggests modest growth in the first quarter of 2025. Looking ahead, inflation is expected to hover around our target Meeting by meeting approach to setting the appropriate monetary policy stance This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

Rate cuts by year-end Fed: 86 bps (90% probability of no change at the upcoming meeting) ECB: 60 bps (79% probability of rate cut at the upcoming meeting) BoE: 88 bps (97% probability of rate cut at the upcoming meeting) BoC: 43 bps (61% probability of no change at the upcoming meeting) RBA: 121 bps

Dow Jones Futures Analysis for Today – YM Contract – April 28, 2025 Current Price of Dow Jones Futures at the Time of This Analysis: 40,289 (YM Futures) Market Context and Key Levels: Dow Jones futures (ticker: YM) are currently trading at 40,289, closely aligned with Friday’s closing price. Today’s price action indicates YM futures

It’s election day in Canada and Trump is trying to make it all about him. Good luck to the Great people of Canada. Elect the man who has the strength and wisdom to cut your taxes in half, increase your military power, for free, to the highest level in the World, have your Car, Steel,

Speculation of People’s Bank of China cuts never go away. This the latest from the China Securities Daily the Bank is seen cutting the RRR and interest rates in Q2 If not, the next set of headlines will roll it into Q3. Rinse, repeat. Ahead today from China: Heads up for a China news conference

It’s going to be kind of a synthetic Sunday today as we don’t have anything notable on the agenda other than a couple of low tier releases. Anyways, the focus remains on tariff related news and the underlying expectations are for more de-escalation ahead and eventually deals (even with China). This has been the trend

The People’s Bank of China (PBOC), China’s central bank, is responsible for setting the daily midpoint of the yuan (also known as renminbi or RMB). The PBOC follows a managed floating exchange rate system that allows the value of the yuan to fluctuate within a certain range, called a “band,” around a central reference rate,

PBOC deputy governor says will cut reserve Requirement ratio (RRR), interest rates, at an appropriate time to focus financial support on stabilising jobs, economic growth will guide financial institutions to guarantee financing demand for foreign trading firms (i.e. exporters) studying plans to enrich policy kit will roll out new policies when needed *** Earlier: China’s

Chinese authorities press conference announce further measures to prompt economic growth and employment. Present are officials from the: National Development and Reform Commission (China’s ‘state planner’) Ministry of Human Resources and Social Security Ministry of Commerce People’s Bank of China more to come This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

President Xi and Trump did not have call recently. US and China have not conducted negotiations or consultations on tariffs. This is the same old denying from the Chinese to comments from Trump about ongoing talks on tariffs. Nothing new here. This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at www.forexlive.com.

Coming up on Tuesday, April 29, 2025, at 12.05pm Sydney time: 0205 GMT 2205 US Eastern time on Monday, April 28, 2025 Keynote speech by Christopher Kent, Assistant Governor (Financial Markets) Topic is “Australia’s External Position and the Evolution of the FX Markets” speaking at Bloomberg, Sydney This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at

Bank of Japan expectations survey via Bloomberg (gated). In brief, nothing of much surprise: The Bank of Japan will keep interest rates at 0.5% and pause further hikes due to rising economic risks from US tariffs. New tariffs are expected to shave 0.5% off Japan’s GDP, delaying any rate hikes until at least October. Despite

Eurostoxx +0.5% Germany DAX +0.4% France CAC 40 +0.5% UK FTSE +0.4% Spain IBEX +0.6% Italy FTSE MIB +0.6% US futures have also pared losses somewhat, with S&P 500 futures just down by 0.1% currently. It’s all still early in the day and even more so on the week. Trump’s tariffs and trade headlines will

The Financial Times with the info: The Financial Times is gated, but in brief: The Port of Los Angeles, the main route of entry for goods from China, expects scheduled arrivals in the week starting May 4 to be a third lower than a year before, while airfreight handlers have also reported sharp falls in

U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent spoke with US media on Sunday. Bessent said that while he spoke with his Chinese counterparts last week during International Monetary Fund meetings in Washington, tariffs were not mentioned! Further in the interview Bessent refused to back up Trump’s assertion that Trump had spoken with China’s President Xi: “I don’t

Prior -41 That’s the highest reading since October last year as UK retail sales balance bounces back in April. Is it better weather conditions that is helping, similar to what we saw in March here? The expectations balance for May isn’t as bright though, falling to -33 and that is down from -30 previously. This

Domestic sight deposits CHF 442.6 bn vs CHF 439.7 bn prior This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

Japan’s top currency official denied a media report claiming U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent supported a strong yen: Mr Yen says Completely untrue about media report that Bessent said stronger yen preferable More, in brief: Atsushi Mimura said, “the U.S. side did not touch upon exchange-rate targets in the finance minister talks.” Finance Minister Katsunobu

Bloomberg (gated) carried comments from Gediminas Šimkus, Chairman of the Board of the Bank of Lithuania and European Central Bank Governing Council member (the monetary policy making board of the Bank). Bloomberg is gated, but in brief: ECB could lower interest rates at least two more times this year, citing: global trade weakness, largely caused

People’s Bank of China USD/CNY reference rate is due around 0115 GMT. The People’s Bank of China (PBOC), China’s central bank, is responsible for setting the daily midpoint of the yuan (also known as renminbi or RMB). The PBOC follows a managed floating exchange rate system that allows the value of the yuan to fluctuate

The narrative of Trump versus the world continues to dominate the market landscape as we look towards the end of April. While he was busy over the weekend putting in focus on the Russia-Ukraine conflict, it is leaving broader markets wanting in the new week expecting some new development on tariffs/trade. And that’s where we

According to Barclays’ month-end FX rebalancing model, strong dollar buying is indicated against the rest of the major currencies bloc for April. This comes after Trump’s reciprocal tariffs announcement led to massive selling in US equities and bonds during the month. “The clear outflows from all major US assets at a pace of c.3-4 standard

Fundamental Overview The USD continues to be supported amid the ongoing de-escalation in trade wars. This has most likely to do more with positioning rather than fundamentals. The short dollar trade got very overstretched so positive news on the tariffs front is providing a pullback. In the medium term, the US Dollar should keep on

South Korea is saying that they will be aiming to create six or so working groups with the US to discuss tariffs, economic security, and economic cooperation. However, any trade agreement will not come before the presidential election on 3 June. This looks to be more of a domestic exception but so far, there haven’t

Good morning, afternoon and evening all. Any charts, technical analysis, trade ideas, thoughts, views, ForexLive traders would like to share and discuss with fellow ForexLive traders, please do so: This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

We are in a moment of great economic uncertainty But does not see any extra inflation in the region Does not anticipate a recession in France, Europe Trump’s policies, US protectionism are not working The ECB is set to meet in June next and market players are slowly warming up to the idea of another

ICYMI – Bezos-backed start-up launches EV truck for less than $US20,000. Tesla killer? AUD traders note – RBA Assistant Governor (Financial Markets) Kent speaking tomorrow China’s vice commerce minister (more): Exports steady in April, will expand imports PBOC deputy governor says will cut RRR, interest rates, at an appropriate time China Gold Association reports gold

Reuters with the report, in summary: Shares of Toyota Industries surged on Monday after Toyota announced it was exploring a potential investment in the key parts supplier. Toyota Industries shares remained untraded due to a flood of buy orders, with bids suggesting a 23% jump to the daily limit of 16,225 yen. If realised, it

ICYMI, an EV pick up launched by Slate Auto, a firm backed in part by Amazon founder Jeff Bezos: starting price point US$20,000 after federal EV incentives made in the USA two-door version can be changed into a 5-seat SUV base model is about two-thirds the size of a Chevy Silverado EV and just a

Trump was asked by a reporter a question on whether he thought Ukrainian leader Zelensky was ready to “give up” the Crimea territory that Russia occupied in 2014: Trump responded “Oh, I think so” This would be a direct contradiction to the Ukrainian leader’s previous statements on the peninsula annexed by Russia. Earlier from Trump:

The CME turns on Globex again in just a few minutes time. About the latest I’ve seen on tariff talk (lack of) developments with China is this from US Treasury Secretary Bessent over the weekend: U.S. Treas Sec Bessent didn’t back Trump assertion that China tariff talks were under way Some Trump comments are crossing

China’s State Council approved 10 new nuclear reactors, marking the fourth year in a row with at least 10 approvals. China currently has 30 nuclear reactors under construction, accounting for nearly half of all projects worldwide. China is expected to surpass the U.S. as the largest atomic energy producer by the end of the decade.

Trump says Zelensky meeting went well we’ll see what happens in next days he’s very disappointed in Russia wants Putin to stop shooting and reach a deal ‘confines’ of a deal are there This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

U.S. Agriculture Secretary Brooke Rollins spoke in a TV interview over the weekend: CNN’s “State of the Union” administration is having daily conversations with China over tariffs there were ongoing talks between the US and China trade deals with other nations were “very close” “Every day we are in conversation with China, along with those

Equites, futures and bond marekts will be closed on Tuesday in Japan. — Shōwa Day is a public holiday in Japan celebrated every year on April 29. It marks the birthday of (the late) Emperor Shōwa (Hirohito), who reigned from 1926 to 1989. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

Chinese authorities will hold a press conference on Monday to announce further measures to prompt economic growth and employment. Present will be officials from the: National Development and Reform Commission Ministry of Human Resources and Social Security Ministry of Commerce People’s Bank of China Scheduled for 10 Beijing time on Monday, April 28, 2025. Which

China’s industrial profits YTD rose 0.8% y/y in Q1, reversing the 0.3% decline in the first two months, but face ongoing pressure from U.S. tariffs for March month alone profits were +2.6% y/y Consumer goods sectors like wearable devices and kitchen appliances saw strong profit growth due to government stimulus. External risks (intensifying trade disruption),

Japan top currency diplomat Mimura: “Completely unture” about media report that US Treasury Sec Bessent said stronger yen preferable No Talks About FX Target held during US-Japan FinMin talks Atsushi Mimura is Japan’s vice finance minister for international affairs, AKA ‘top currency diplomat’. Japan’s finance ministry is the relevant authority in Japan for ordering intervention

As is usual for a Monday morning, market liquidity is very thin until it improves as more Asian centres come online … prices are liable to swing around, so take care out there. Indicative rates, only a little change from late Friday: EUR/USD 1.1366 USD/JPY 146.34 GBP/USD 1.3297 USD/CHF 0.8299 USD/CAD 1.3872 … an awful

Last week, major US retailers including Walmart, Target and Home Depot met with the White House. Shortly afterwards, the stock market turned around, leading to an extremely strong week in the S&P 500. Today, Hong Kong based Ming Pao (a reputable newspaper) reports from the Canton Fair, which is an import/export fair and reported that:

US stocks end the week with a four day win streak Feds Semi-annu Anderson al survey: Risks to global trade are the most frequently cited risk What are the key economic events on the calendar next week Earnings calendar: Microsoft, Meta, Amazon, Apple, McDonald’s, Starbucks, Coca-Cola Crude oil futures settle at $63.02 EU Comm. Dombrovski:

The earnings calendar heats up next week with the number of big-name releases including Coca-Cola, Pfizer, Starbucks, Microsoft, Meta, Amazon, Apple, McDonald’s, Exxon Mobil, and Chevron on scheduled to release. Below is the full list of some of the bigger names on the schedule. Monday, April 29 Before Open: Domino’s Pizza (DPZ) MGM Resorts (MGM)

Reuters ECB sources report that a consensus is building for a June rate cut. At the moment the market is pricing in 71% chance of a cut but it looks like the ECB wants to bump that up, given that this report cites six sources. The report notes that data has been deteriorating but also

At the turn of the year, it looked like a certainty that Conservatives would form a large majority in this year’s Canadian election but Trump changed everything. His harsh tariffs on Canada and unceasing 51st state talk upended the focus on housing/immigration/culture and put it squarely on sovereignty. Conservative leader Pierre Poilievre struggled to strike

🔴 Risks to global trade are the most frequently cited risk to the U.S. financial system, according to new Federal Reserve survey 🔴 Fed says growing stablecoin sector remains subject to run risks 🔴 Fed says bank funding vulnerabilities in line with historical norms 🔴 Fed says funding markets were resilient through early April’s market

The major US stock indices close the week with a four day when streak. Monday’s declines of over 2.5% were erased on Tuesday. The gains from Wednesday Thursday and Friday were icing on the cake. The NASDAQ index outpaced the other major indices with a gain of 6.73%. .For the day, the NASDAQ rose 1.26%

Monday, April 28 Canada Federal Election (All day) Tuesday, April 29 U.S. JOLTS Job Openings (Forecast: 7.48M; Prior: 7.57M) Australia CPI q/q (Forecast: 0.8%; Prior: 0.2%) Australia CPI y/y (Forecast: 2.3%; Prior: 2.4%) Australia Trimmed Mean CPI q/q (Forecast: 0.6%; Prior: 0.5%) China Manufacturing PMI (Forecast: 49.8; Prior: 50.5) Germany Preliminary CPI m/m (Forecast: 0.4%;

Crude oil futures settled $63.02. That’s up $0.23 or 0.37%. For the trading week, the price fell -1.03%.. The high was at $64.83. The low was at $61.05. Last Friday the price closed at $63.68. This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

Sector Overview The US stock market is exhibiting varied performances across different sectors today, with some emerging as bright spots while others face challenges. The standout performer is undoubtedly the consumer cyclical sector, where Tesla (TSLA) impresses with a gain of 4.15%. This surge can be attributed to optimism in the electric vehicle market and

The EURUSD stretched higher in the US session, but after reaching a high price of 1.1388, and getting within four pips of its 200-hour moving average, buyers turned to sellers and have pushed the price back lower. The current price is trading at 1.13727 after reaching a post-high low price of 1.1364. Yesterday, the price

Markets not enthusiastic about Trump’s remarks Trump: China’s Xi has called him How have interest rate expectations changed after this week’s developments? SNB’s Schlegel: Economic slowdown in Switzerland cannot be ruled out Thai Commerce Minister: Thailand will eventually be able to negotiate tariffs with the US ECB’s Holzmann: Next policy steps are completely open China

EU Commissioner Dombrovski is on the wires saying: Had cordial and candid meeting with United States Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent Reiterates that the EU is going to reach a mutually agreeable solution with US on tariffs. He also emphasized the need for continued support for Ukraine This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

Pres. Trump says: Will Not drop China tariffs unless they give us something Opening up China would be a big win We will have deals for others. We will set the tariff I noted there would be a transition Iran sitution is coming out well. The deal is simple…they can’t have a nuclear weapon. People

Gold Futures Analysis – tradeCompass for June 2025 Contract (April 25, 2025) Gold futures (GC) have entered a captivating phase, retreating from an all-time peak of 3,509.9 reached earlier this week. As we head into today’s trading session (Friday, April 25), market dynamics offer intriguing possibilities for scalpers and short-term traders alike. Market Context: Bearish

Here’s your TradeCompass article in a polished F1-style format: 📈 ES Futures Analysis for Today: VWAP Test Underway, Order Flow Signals Caution Prediction Score: +4 (Mild Bullish Bias) ES Futures are making a cautious move higher after bouncing from support near 5492.25, but order flow shows buyers encountering resistance around the VWAP zone. With Delta

Next policy steps are completely open. Tariff net impact so far rather disinflationary. I see economic scars even if tariffs are lowered. He’s generally a hawk, but these comments are rather dovish. This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at www.forexlive.com.

The NASDAQ index is hitting new intraday highs, currently up 134.13 points (+0.78%) at 17,300.82. In the process, it has broken above a key target level at 17,238, which had served as support in mid-March (March 11, 13, and 14 — see red circles). The index is also trading above the April 9 high of

Closing changes on the day: German DAX, +0.8% France’s CAC +0.5% UK’s FTSE 100 +0.1% Spain’s Ibex +1.3% Italy’s FTSE MIB +1.4% On the week: German DAX, +4.9% France’s CAC +3.5% UK’s FTSE 100 +1.6% Spain’s Ibex +3.4% Italy’s FTSE MIB +3.7% The market is betting that Trump will walk back tariffs and avoid a

Pres. Trump is speaking and says: We will be reasonable on tariffs. Thinks markets are adjusting to tariff policy Trump is heading to Rome for the funeral of Pope Francis tomorrow. He also has said that many world leaders are looking to speak with him there. This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

In yesterday’s video, ” Watching the old floor which is now a ceiling for the USDCHF” I spoke to the resistance area between 0.8333 and 0.8373. That area was an old floor going back to the low in January 2015, the low from December 2023 the lows from September 2024. Breaking a floor, turns it

German DAX futures +0.2% UK FTSE futures +0.1% This follows the positive murmurs from US-China relations since overnight, with Trump touting a vague meeting with China alongside reports of tariff exemptions being worked out. S&P 500 futures are also marked higher as such, up 0.5% on the day. In turn, the dollar is catching a

Oil rigs +2 to 483 Nat. Gas +1 to 99 Total rigs +2 to 587. Crude oil is trading up $0.21 or 0.32% at $63.00 on the day. For the trading week, the price is down $0.70 or -1.11%. The high price this week reached $64.83. The low price was at $61.55. Last week the

Goldman Sachs’ chief economist Jan Hatzius argues that despite the dollar’s recent 5% decline, it remains significantly overvalued and poised for further depreciation. Structural portfolio imbalances and elevated valuation levels point to a multi-year adjustment. Key Points: Overvaluation Still Extreme: The dollar remains nearly two standard deviations above its long-term real average since 1973. Comparable

All parties called for the strengthening of dialogue and policy coordination All parties support the construction of a more-stable, efficient and resilient int’l financial architecture Economic fragmentation and trade tensions continue to disrupt the industrial supply chain and weaken the momentum of global growth Major economies should strengthen participation in policy coordination At present, China’s

Fed watcher, Nick Timiraos of the WSJ is tweeting that comments from Fed’s Hammack on Thursday are not really saying a June rate cut is forthcoming. The qualifier is “if”. Whenever there is an “if” it means a condition or more likely conditions still need to happen and they can be for than one, a

The major European indices are closing higher on the day and for the week: German DAX, +0.78%. For the week, the index soared 4.86% its best week since January 2023 France’s CAC +0.48%. For the week the index is up 3.48% UK’s FTSE 100 +0.06%. For the week index is up 1.69% Spain’s Ibex +1.32%.

USTR Greer: it is constantly engaged with Japan, other countries in substantiative technical talks focused on improving reciprocal trade Pres. Trump ultimately will determine whether to proceed with alternative arrangements for countries that could eliminate or reduce current 10% duties This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

BOE Greens: We are not sure if weakness in UK economy is caused by demand or supply She is more worried about supply, really week productivity growth. There are concerns about impact of the government budget changes. We have no idea what US tariffs will look like when the dust settles. We are seeing in

The week started off poorly with a 3% drop in US equity markets but there has been a rapid and powerful turnaround. The S&P 500 is on track for its fourth consecutive day of gains with a 0.3% rise today. The index is at its session highs going into the weekend on hopes (expectations?) that

The GBPUSD remains within the confines of MAs after test of the 100 hour MA found wiling sellers. Looking at the price action on the chart above, the price remains between its 200-hour moving average below at 1.32946, and it’s 100 hour moving average above at 1.3323. The price over the last few days has

⚡️Nasdaq Futures: Buyers Step In After Stop-Hunt Below VWAP Price Action Update – April 25, 2025 Order Flow Prediction Score: +5 (Bullish Bias, Moderate Confidence) After a sharp drop below VWAP (~19339), Nasdaq Futures are showing early signs of a bullish reversal. The move appears to be a stop-hunt, shaking out weak longs before a

China’s Xi has called him. His administration in active talks with Chinese to strike a deal. Crimea will stay with Russia. Would consider it a victory if US has 50% tariffs a year from now. I wasn’t worried during April bond stress. Predicts Saudi Arabia will go into the Abraham accords. Bessent and Lutnick didn’t

US and China are not having any talks on tariffs. US should stop creating confusion. Here we go again… In the interview with Time, Trump said that Xi called him. This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at www.forexlive.com.

Canada retail sales for February came in as expected -0.4% but was stronger ex autos (the auto industry had a tough month). Forward-looking to the preliminary March data, the expectations are for a solid increase of 0.7%. The data has helped to push the CAD modestly higher (the USDCAD lower), but the pair remains between

The NZDUSD fell late Wednesday, with bearish momentum carrying the pair down to its 200-hour moving average during the Asia-Pacific session. That level held as support, attracting buyers who helped lift the price higher through the European session. The rebound took the pair back above its 100-hour moving average, currently at 0.59786—a level that was

The AUDUSD extended higher on Monday, Tuesday, and Wednesday, but each rally stalled within a key swing area resistance between 0.6429 and 0.6442. This zone has consistently capped upside momentum throughout the week. It was initially defined going back to November and December of 2024. It wasn’t until this week that the price returned to

The Kremlin is reporting that : US envoy Witkoff met with Russian Pres. Putin for three hours Talks were constructive Talks brought the sides closer on Ukraine and other questions. There was a discussion of renewing negotiations between Russia and Ukraine. We know from previous comments this week and from the Time magazine article released

Did Xi call or not call? Oft times, being the strongest, the most powerful, the alpha matter most to Trump and also for Chinese Xi as well. It seem is the case with regard to “who calls who” The FT is reporting that Several people familiar with the situation from Washington and Beijing say Xi

Fundamental Overview It looks more and more likely that gold reached an inflection point this week. The price continues to edge lower as more and more positive news on the trade front filter through. Trump delivered some key comments late Tuesday where he not only sounded much less hawkish on China but also made clear

Prior month -0.6% This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

Thailand will eventually be able to negotiate tariffs with the US, get the most benefits. Exports may be bumpy but not bad this year. US officials satisfied with Thailand taking steps to tackle circumvention. Thailand to keep good relations with both US and China. Hope negotiations with US won’t take long to reach agreements. Thai

China said to weigh exempting some US goods from tariffs as costs rise Japan April Tokyo CPI ex-fresh food +3.4% vs +3.2% expected Japan’s Ishiba: Decided on a package of measures to deal with US tariffs Japanese finance minister Kato met with Scott Bessent today Ueda: Uncertainty regarding global economy rising, must scrutinize impact on

Alphabet will announce its earnings after the close. Analysts expect Alphabet to report year-over-year growth in both revenue and earnings. FactSet consensus estimates EPS at $2.01, a 6.3% increase from $1.89 a year ago. Revenue is projected at $89.2 billion, up 10.8% from $80.5 billion in the prior year. Alphabet’s all-time high was reached on

Prior month 57.0 University of Michigan sentiment final April 52.2 versus 50.8. Prior month 57.0 Current conditions 59.8 versus 56.5 estimate. Preliminary 56.5. Prior month 63.8 Expectations and 47.3 versus 47.1 estimate. Preliminary 47.2. Prior month 52.6 inflation expectations 1 year inflation expectations 6.5% versus 5.0% last month. Preliminary 6.7% Five year inflation expectations 4.4%

Crude oil futures settled at $62.79 on the day, gaining $0.52 or 0.84%. The modest rise reflects a market still searching for direction, as traders weigh near-term supply dynamics and broader macroeconomic uncertainty. From a technical perspective, the hourly chart shows crude largely trading between its key moving averages. The 100-hour moving average currently sits

We are seeing some risk-off flows in the markets at the moment. Two key Trump’s remarks could be what’s weighing on the sentiment. The first one is his answer to the question whether he would consider it a victory if the US still had high tariffs by the end of the year like 20% or

The major US indices are set to open lower but off their lowest premarket levels. The futures are currently implying: Dow industrial average -100 points S&P index -4.25 points NASDAQ index -33 points. Entering into today, the major indices are higher for the week: Dow industrial average +2.43%. S&P index +3.83% NASDAQ index +5.40% Alphabet

The economic calendar start off with Canadian retail sales for February to be released at 8:30 AM. Canada retail sales expectations -0.4% versus -0.6%. Ex autos -0.4% versus +0.2% University of Michigan sentiment for April will be released at 10 AM ET with expectations of 50.8. That is down from 57.0 last month but equal

We might be seeing a US dollar catch-up trade in Asia. The dollar struggled in Thursday’s US session even as stocks rallied and Treasury yields fell. It was a breakdown of the recent Buy America/Sell America correlation but today in Asia we’re seeing signs that it’s being re-asserted, albeit delayed. The dollar is 30-45 pips

FBS, a leading global broker, presents its latest market analysis exploring the recent Bitcoin downturn and the broader outlook for the cryptocurrency market in 2025. Despite a 28% price drop since the beginning of the year, FBS analysts suggest the current market phase is part of a broader correction and potentially an early stage of

The USD is higher with gains vs all the major currencies to start the US session. IN the video above, I take a look at the 3 major currency pairs – the EURUSD, USDJPY and GBPUSD – from a technical perspective. EURUSD: The EURUSD tried to extend back above the 200- hour MA at the

Rate cuts by year-end Fed: 83 bps (92% probability of no change at the upcoming meeting) ECB: 61 bps (75% probability of rate cut at the upcoming meeting) BoE: 85 bps (97% probability of rate cut at the upcoming meeting) BoC: 43 bps (51% probability of no change at the upcoming meeting) RBA: 117 bps

It’s a pretty empty day on the economic calendar front with just the Canadian Retail Sales and the final UMich report as the main highlights. The market is not focused on the data though, so we will likely see little to no reaction to the releases. The focus remains on tariff related news. The expectations

According the Chinese Embassy, China in the US are not having talks on tariffs US should stop creating confusion This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

Prior was -19 The UK GfK Consumer Confidence Index tracks how confident people feel about the economy and their personal finances. GfK is a German market research firm that conducts the monthly survey. This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

Economic slowdown in Switzerland cannot be ruled out. Trade policy situation is creating high uncertainty for all countries, including Switzerland. Price stability cannot prevent trade policy related uncertainty, but still very important. Trade policy could fragment global economy. Main instrument is interest rate, but we can also use forex interventions to influence monetary conditions. The

Prior 97 Manufacturing confidence 99 Prior 96 Services confidence 98 Prior 97 Despite an improvement in both industry and services sentiment, the French business climate remains gloomy in April as retail trade conditions worsened. Some good news is that the employment climate indicator is also seen improving slightly – up to 97 from 96 in

Gold is trading $18 higher early in Asian trading to $3366. It rose as high as $3370 to briefly top the Asian peak from yesterday in a sign of solid demand. Earlier this week, gold hit a record high above $3500 but that led to a powerful round of profit taking into Wednesday’s trading in

Amid fears of the tariffs war getting worse, gold surged higher earlier in the week and briefly clipped the $3,500 mark. Some profit-taking there and hopeful optimism on US-China relations then led to a retreat, which accelerated to a drop below $3,300 on Wednesday during US trading. But as the dust settles a bit, we’re

Prior +1.0%; revised to +0.7% Retail sales +2.6% vs +1.8% y/y expected Prior +2.2% Retail sales ex autos, fuel +0.5% vs -0.4% m/m expected Prior +1.0%; revised to +0.7% Retail sales ex autos, fuel +3.3% vs +2.2% y/y expected Prior +2.2%; revised to +1.8% That’s a decent beat on estimates, though it comes with a

Instructed cabinet members to do the utmost to aid SME’s that will be affected He’s talking about domestic help here, not counter-tariffs. This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

China and US are not having any consultations or negotiations on tariffs. On tariff exemptions on some goods: I’m not familiar with specifics, I refer you to competent authorities. Just yesterday, Trump said that they had a meeting with China in the morning. According to the Chinese, he’s not telling the truth. The market is

Tariff wars and trade wars have further affected economic and financial stability All parties should further improve the international economic and financial system by strengthening multi-lateral cooperation All parties should pool more resources for Africa’s development There isn’t really anything notable here on the trade war. This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

To maintain abundant liquidity and strengthen support for the real economy Will create structural monetary policy tolls and new policy-based instruments to expand consumption Will focus on stabilising employment, market expectations Necessary to increase income of low and middle-income groups Will accelerate the integration of domestic and foreign trade Necessary to continuously improve policy toolbox

As we look to end the week, once again the impact of the option expiries should be relatively muted. There are some big ones but they aren’t sitting too close to the current spot levels. The dollar is holding up ahead of European trading amid some positive murmurs as US and China look to be

The major US stock indices are closing with solid gains for the third day in row. The S&P index and NASDAQ indices both closed up over 2% with the NASDAQ index up 2.74%. The final numbers are showing: Dow industrial average rose 4 and 86.83 points or 1.23% at 40,091.40 S&P index rose 108.93 up

It looks like they’re starting to produce lists of exclusions for specific categories But have not yet seen any official announcement or policy on exclusions Some member companies have said that they have been able to bring in goods without tariffs being levied on them in the past week China commerce ministry is one of

First reading above 3% since July 2023 Prior was +2.4% Overall CPI 3.5% vs 2.9% prior Ex food and energy 2.0% y/y vs 1.1% prior Ex food and energy +0.7% m/m vs +0.4% prior USD/JPY was trading higher by 27 pips to 142.90 ahead of the report. This is a yen positive (i.e. USD/JPY negative)

Here is a chart from Craig Fuller at FreightWaves — a freight data company. It shows last year’s trend in outbound freight (green) and overlays this year. It shows a 15% decline since February and ongoing deterioration, with the index 10% below a year ago. “The freight data is warning about for the direction of

Here is a good chart from Deutsche Bank that highlights several actual recessions and several times where a decession looked likely and how far the SP 500 fell in those situations. Looking at it, the market has fallen far enough already to indicate the market is concerned about a recession but if we were to

There are two separate reports on China tariffs. The first from Bloomberg says China is weighing exempting some US goods from tariffs. It’s not exactly comprehensive though: “Authorities are considering removing the additional levies for medical equipment and some industrial chemicals like ethane, the people said … Officials are also discussing waiving the tariff for

ECBs Knot is saying: Medium-term impact of tariffs on inflation is unclear. Way too early to take a position if June occurred or a hold This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

Cross-asset correlations have broken down this year. The old risk-on/risk-off trade has been dead for awhile as the market sorts through the implications of the US trade war. That’s often been replaced by a Buy America/Sell America dynamic where we see US stocks, bonds and the dollar move in tandem. Today there were strong binds

To closely review Alaska LNG project I’m not really sure what ‘common ground’ means in this case. I find the idea of the US rebuilding its ship building capacity to be really difficult to get my head around as it would take years just to assemble the workforce and there is no scope where US-built

Open to negotiate on non-tariff barriers, explore bilateral trade agreement, strengthen tech safeguards and security Will explore alternative ways to address US concerns Will ensure mutually beneficial trade flows between Malaysia and US continue These are fairly boilerplate comments but highlight a willingness to negotiate, which is true of most countries. This article was written

Eamonn is off today because it’s a holiday in Australia and New Zealand so I’ll be sitting in for Asian trade. The main data highlight comes at 0030 GMT (8:30 am in Tokyo) with the release of April Tokyo CPI for April. Excluding fresh food, it’s expected to rise to 3.2% y/y, which should provide

Canadian retail sales are due on Friday and expected to show a 0.4% m/m for the February reading but the real test will be the advance March reading, which doesn’t have a consensus estimate. The best clue we have is from the RBC report on its card data. We saw signs that Canadians are pulling

The Japanese yen and euro have both chalked up impressive year-to-date gains of around 12% against the US dollar, Bank of America argues that the yen’s rise is more flimsy. BofA notes: The yen’s rally has been disproportionately driven by speculative positioning The euro’s rise has been more persistent than JPY’s across daily market regimes

Kato told Bessent that US tariffs are deeply regretful The US and Japan to communicate closely on FX No talk with Bessent on whether recent FX moves are disorderly The disappointment in Monday markets was due to reports that Japanese officials had left Washington confused and wondering what the US wanted in a trade deal.

The Canadian finance minister Champagne is speaking and says: G7 are united but tensions remain around tariffs. Canadian leadership is needed to maintain unity of G7 We need to fight against the US tariffs which are still affecting a large portion of Canadian goods. In an uncertain world, fundamentals of Canada offer confidence for future

Major US stock indices close higher with the S&P and NASDAQ both up over 2% Crude oil futures settled $62.79 ECBs Knot: Medium term impact of tariffs on inflation unclear Pres. Trump: Will meet with world leaders in Rome Canadian finance minister Champagne:G7 are united, but tensions remain around tariffs US treasury sells 44 billion

Uncertainty regarding global economy heightening Must scrutinize impact on business confidence We will scrutinize without pre-conception whether our forecast will materialize looking at various data that will become available We will look at various data, particularly those related to how tariffs affect economy Wants to focus on sustainably, stably achieving BOJ’s 2% inflation target Central

I’m worried that with the uncertainty, businesses will do layoffs Not seeing an uptick in layoffs yet Some businesses say they are scenario planning for potential layoffs if uncertainty lasts A resolution of trade frictions would relieve uncertainty, would be optimistic This is really just thinking out loud. The market is pricing in a 66%

Pres. Trump is speaking in the White House and says: Think will be very difficult to get Crimea back Both Russia and Ukraine one peace now Don’t think Russia is an obstacle to peace We are using a lot of pressure on both countries Russia has offered to stop the war, and stopped taking the

Working Capital Management: Balancing Liquidity and Operational Efficiency Working capital is the lifeblood of a company’s day-to-day operations. Managing it well ensures the business can meet short-term obligations, maintain operational stability, and avoid unnecessary borrowing. Poor working capital management, on the other hand, can lead to cash flow crises — even for profitable firms. In

The FT is reporting that Trump will to exempt carmakers from some US tariffs more to come FT is gated, but the gist of it is that Trump is expected to ease back on some of his toughest tariffs affecting the auto industry. intends to exclude car parts from the China-focused tariffs tied to fentanyl

Major European indices are closing mostly higher. The one exception is Spain’s Ibex. Look at the closing levels shows: German DAX, +0.49% France’s CAC +0.27% UK’s FTSE 100 +0.05% Spain’s Ibex -0.22% Italy’s FTSE MIB +0.96% As European traders look for the exits, US stocks remain higher led by the NASDAQ index Dow industrial average

China, US not yet in talks on tariffs. Respect is condition for any talks to happen. US needs to stop threats if it wants talks. US ‘tariff tsunami’ breaks WTO rules. There’s nothing new here as Trump continues to show willingness to ease the trade war and make a deal but doesn’t want to call

The USD is lower vs. the 3 major currency pairs a day after a run lower after Pres. Trump and his administration threw out trial balloons that tariffs vs China would not be sustained and that other deals with Japan and India are close. However, they called the deals “memorandums of understanding” or a broad

For what it is worth (more of some of the rehash from yesterday). FoxBusiness Gasparino it X’ing Trump White House is informing senior Wall Street executives of a near-term trade agreement in principle with India. Sources are senior Wall Street execs with connections to the White House. No specific timing details yet; past efforts with

Prior month 1.0% revised to 0.9% durable goods orders 9.2% which is the highest level since July 2024 when it rose 9.8%. Nondefense capital goods orders ex-air 0.1% versus 0.2% expected Prior nondefense capital goods orders ex-air -0.3% (revised from -0.2% Ex transport 0.0% versus +0.3%. Prior month 0.7% Ex defense +10.4% versus +0.8% per

The USDCHF moved higher yesterday, reaching its highest level since April 10 with a peak at 0.8310. However, bullish momentum stalled just 23 pips short of a key resistance area—an old weekly chart floor that now acts as a ceiling. This level has become a critical barometer for short-, medium-, and long-term bias. Staying below

Trump says There was a meeting this morning with China No other details were shared. US stocks get a modest bounce off of the headlines This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

The Reserve Bank of Australia next meet on May 19- 20 In summary from Australian ‘big four’ bank Westpac, bolding is mine: Lock it in, no need to wait for the CPI: RBA Monetary Policy Board expected to cut by 25bps at its 20 May meeting. For the past several quarters, the near-term outlook for

Canada PM Carney speaking to Pres. Trump’s comments on not wanting Canadian cars: We decide what happens here The remarks are more proof that Canada’s old relationship with the US is over Yesterday, Citadel CEO Ken Griffin has publicly criticized President Trump’s tariff policies, asserting that they are eroding the global perception of the United

Pres. Trump thinks Putin will listen to him and stop strikes in Ukraine. VP J.D. Vance, in comments shared by the White House, revealed that the U.S. has made a clear proposal to both Russia and Ukraine aimed at ending the conflict. The proposal involves establishing new territorial boundaries roughly aligned with current front lines,

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USDCAD moved higher on Wednesday, breaking above both its 100- and 200-hour moving averages (blue and green lines on the chart above) —a bullish technical development. Notably, this marked the first sustained move above the 200-hour moving average since April 9. Back then, the pair briefly breached the level before reversing sharply and trending lower,

Fundamental Overview The USD got a boost from the positive Trump’s comments on China late Tuesday. We saw the bullish momentum holding yesterday but it started to wane as disappointing news started to filter through. We see stronger reactions to positive news because of overstretched positioning, so that will likely continue to be the case

Government Bonds: Why They’re Safe and How to Use Them in Your Investing Strategy In earlier articles, we’ve learned about bond ratings and credit spreads. Now let’s focus specifically on government bonds: why investors view them as safe, how they work, and how you can practically use them in your investment approach. This article covers:

High yield 4.123% WI level at the time of the auction Tail versus six-month averages 0.2 basis points versus six-month average of -1.1 basis points Bid to Cover 2.55X vs six-month average of 2.67X Directs (domestic buyers) 25.44% vs six-month average of 20.6% Indirects (internations buyers) 59.3% versus six-month average of 69.7% Dealer 15.3% vs

Speaking on CNBC, BOE Bailey says: We see impact of tariff uncertainty coming through two business investment and consumers. Impact of tariffs on exchange-rate has not been that large for the UK. We are focused on the growth shock from tariffs. I don’t think UK economy is close to recession. Last GDP data was quite

The global economy is teetering on the edge of a full-scale trade war, and the crypto markets are already feeling the tremors. With sweeping new tariffs rolled out by the United States in 2025 and rapid retaliation from China and the European Union, the economic landscape is shifting fast. Investors, analysts, and policymakers alike are

Any content about China-US economic and trade negotiations is ‘groundless and has no factual basis’. There have not been economic and trade negotiations between China and US. This is just a warning to distrust any media leaks about negotiations or deals between the two given that the two countries have not spoke about these topics.

Initial jobless claims 222K vs 222K expected Prior 215K (revised to 216K) Continuing claims 1.841M vs 1.875M expected Prior 1.885M (revised to 1.878M) Still solid data with no weakness in sight. Continuing claims are a good barometer for permanent job losers and they improved. All in all, nothing to see here, the labour market is

ECBs Rehn” Tariffs have dampening effect on inflation in short to medium-term. Fiscal spending will only have effect from 2026 onwards This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

Finance Magnates Africa Summit, Africa’s premier trading summit, is set to return for another edition on the 29th and 30th of May. This year’s edition, FMAS:25, will take place in Cape Town for the first time in the summit’s history. The strategic move to South Africa’s financial hub is a solid indicator of the event’s

📈 Tech Stocks Lead the Charge: Strong Gains Across Sectors Highlight Market Optimism Today’s U.S. stock market is painting a vibrant picture of optimism, spearheaded by significant gains in the technology sector. Investors are responding positively to a slew of upbeat earnings reports, driving broad-based gains across multiple sectors. Let’s delve into today’s market landscape

Yesterday, both the NASDAQ and S&P 500 indices tested their 200-hour moving averages but encountered selling pressure near those levels, leading to a late-day pullback. Today, the tone has shifted more positive, with both indices rebounding. The NASDAQ index has broken back above its 200-hour moving average (currently at 16,987.04), reaching a new session high

Cleveland Fed Pres. Beth Hammock speaking on CNBC says: Uncertainty is weighing on businesses. Influences planning on spending and employment Wish I had a crystal ball on implications on tariffs Cone of possibilities for economy are so wide. Does not have basecase right now. Is looking at snares for economy I would rather take our

The Atlanta Fed GDPNow growth estimate for Q2 adjusting for exports and imports of gold failed to -0.4% from -0.1% previously. The unadjusted GDP forecast came in at -2.5% down from -2.2% on April 17. The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the first quarter of 2025 is -2.5

What the Canadian election this weekend means for CAD ICYMI – South Korea Q1 GDP unexpectedly contracts, boosting rate cut expectations Japan finance minister Kato told the G7 that US tariffs are highly disappointing Nissan has scrapped development of two EVs planned to be produced in Mississippi plant “Lock it in: RBA to cut 25bps

The magnitude of the market reaction to a repricing in expectations is generally driven by positioning. Say we are in risk on, so risk assets generally rally together like equities, commodities, commodity currencies and so on. The magnitude of the moves in each market is determined by positioning. If one of those markets is let’s

Prior month manufacturing index 1.0 Manufacturing index for April. -5 versus 1.0 last month Composite index for April -4 versus -2 last month The manufacturing index had a low -13 in February. The high price for the year was at +1 last month. Looking at the chart above, the price is near the middle of

US posts notice on some China tariff levels. Notice applies to low-value imports from China and Hong Kong. With blanket tariffs of 145% on all China imports, if it were to persist, it would be a very bleak Christmas season especially for the less fortunate. The report does not put a tariff level on the

There are consequences to actions. Boeing has said that they could hand over some of aircraft to other carriers, but at the end of the day, the tariff action is causing disruptions for businesses. China should do all he can to stop Fentanyl….Yes. This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

Prior 86.7 Current assessment 86.4 vs. 85.4 expected Prior 85.7 Expectations 87.4 vs. 85.0 expected Prior 87.7 These are certainly better figures than feared given the trade uncertainty. It shouldn’t be a surprise though given that the German PMIs showed the same yesterday and they are correlated with the IFO. This article was written by

Japan services PPI is AKA the Corporate Services Price Index (CSPI) Comes in at 3.1% in March up from 3.0% in February ** Japan Services Producer Price Index (PPI) measures the average change over time in the prices received by service providers (in the private sector) for their services in Japan Data published by the

Fed’s Waller on Bloomberg: The general tone is many companies are frozen by tariff uncertainty. Firms are trying to see how two navigators. It wouldn’t surprise me to see more layoffs, higher unemployment. Smaller tariffs will have minus pass-through. We need better control of budget deficit. No obvious reason why tariffs should be off table

Disinflationary forces are there because of the Euro and energy. Trade policy uncertainty has been on radar since summer. There’s reason for longer-term optimism on the economy. The European economy is growing and showing resilience. The economy should be growing, despite trade negatives. We can’t get ahead of ourselves on any path for economy. The

Gold has kept on rising almost uninterruptedly for most of 2025, recording a series of new all-time highs. Since October 2022, the metal’s price has almost doubled, having risen by more than 25% in 2025 alone, hitting a fresh all-time high of $3,500 per ounce on April 22. A $4,000 price level, once dismissed as

There are reports that: Apple is struggling to ship manufacturing equipment to India from China It moved subassembly lines back to China from India due to quality and cost concerns It is unable to use Chinese firms for production in India due to geopolitical tensions Shares of Apple are trading down -0.37% in premarket trading

Solvency Ratios: How to Evaluate a Company’s Long-Term Financial Stability Solvency ratios help investors assess whether a company can survive over the long term. They reveal how much debt a company carries and whether it has the financial muscle to meet future obligations. While liquidity ratios deal with the short term, solvency ratios are about

Federal Reserve Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack: There has to be a high bar for Fed to step in to aid markets Market should set where term premium stands Uncertainty is a big issue in economy, it’s causing businesses to pause Economic uncertainty prompting business caution We have not seen the need for Fed market

Rate cuts must wait for more tariff certainty. There was a broad consensus around lowering rates, but some disagreement at the margins. It wasn’t clear yet to what extent tariff countermeasures were being taken. There may be further cuts this year, but the number is still outstanding Says that while various scenarios remained possible with

A White House statement says that the European Union fine on Meta and Apple is a novel form of economic extortion and will not be tolerated. Only yesterday Trump said the EU was not taking advantage any more, see the pic, about a third of the way down. Now they are back being naughty again?

Sless Prior month 4.26M revised to 4.27M Existing home sales lower at 4.02M annualized pace versus 4.13M estimate. The prior month was revised marginally higher to 4.27M Decline -5.9% after rising 4.4% last month inventory/sales 4.0 months supply This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

Why market positioning is a key ingredient to trading performance FMAS:25 – Africa’s Largest Trading Summit ECB’s Rehn: ECB shouldn’t rule out larger interest rate cut Russia says Zelensky has categorically refused to make any concessions Germany April Ifo business climate index 86.9 vs 85.2 expected China Commerce Ministry: There haven’t been trade negotiations between

Efficiency Ratios: Measuring How Well a Company Uses Its Resources Efficiency ratios reveal how effectively a company uses its assets and manages its operations. While profitability and solvency tell you what a company earns and how it funds itself, efficiency ratios uncover how it gets there. These metrics are particularly useful for comparing operational quality

U.S. told Japan it cannot give Japan special treatment regarding tariffs during talks held earlier this month, NHK says citing multiple Japan govt sources Headline via Reuters This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

Fairly certain inflation effect will be stronger in the US than in Europe. The effects of tariffs on growth will be significant in Europe and Germany. This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at www.forexlive.com.

White House reportedly mulling cutting China tariffs to de-escalate trade war White House would look at lowering tariffs pending talks with Beijing Bessent: No unilateral offer from Trump to cut China tariffs US Treasury Sec Bessent says Trump administration wants to help China &U.S. rebalance Several OPEC+ members want the group to approve another accelerated

Nikkei report, via Reuters: Nissan decided to scrap development of two electric vehicle models in the U.S. Nissan scrapped development of two sedan EV models planned to be produced in its Mississippi plant from 2028 This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

ECB shouldn’t rule out larger interest rate cut. There are a few good reasons to pause rate cuts. Economic risks are starting to materialise. We must retain full freedom of action, be agile. There’s a risk of the ECB easing too much amid tariff uncertainty. If the US reverses its policies or at least gets

Practical Strategies for Managing Your Portfolio Through Economic Cycles Understanding economic cycles—periods of growth and recession—can help you manage your investments wisely. Every economy experiences these ups and downs, and knowing how to react in each stage can help protect and grow your money over time. In this article, we’ll explore: The different stages of

Reuters on comments from a senior International Monetary Fund (IMF) official: Bank of Japan likely to push back timing of further rate hikes if IMF’s reference scenario materializes Japan’s inflation likely to converge to BOJ’s target sometime in 2027 rather than in 2026, as initially expected Balance of risks is to the downside for Japan’s

The IMFs Georgieva is saying: Says world economy is facing a new and major test with depleted buffers Says China needs to reduce imbalances and shift to consumption Says trade-offs will be toughest for low income countries Says countries need to watch data for inflation pressures and adjust policy accordingly Says central bank independence is

ECBs Nagel is speaking on business television and says We are fairly certain that inflation effect of terms will be stronger in the US than in Europe. The effects of tariffs on growth will be significant in Europe in Germany. This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

This is via an ING note: Canada holds a federal election on 28 April amid a fierce debate on how to face Trump’s tariffs. Polls and betting odds project that Liberals, led by PM Mark Carney, will win with an absolute majority. This scenario is likely priced in by markets, and should have a limited

PrimeXBT, a regulated multi-asset broker, has expanded its offering with the introduction of stock CFDs, allowing clients to trade shares of major global companies with greater flexibility. The move is part of a broader strategy to give clients access to more markets and asset classes within the same trusted trading environment. The expansion introduces some

Its been face plant after face plant from Trump, a face save would be very welcome news for the economy. This from respected journo Charles Gasparino: This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

Reports say that Japan is to resist Trump efforts to form trade bloc against China, which is Trump’s strategy to force a deal with China. We are seeing more and more countries stepping up their tone as the US now looks much weaker than it looked just a couple of weeks ago. This is also

Russia says Zelensky has categorically refused to make any concessions or to discuss the status of Crimea. Says Zelensky’s approach shows he wants to fight the war until the last Ukrainian. Russia accuses European ‘hawks’ of encouraging Zelensky to continue the war regardless of casualties. Says European countries are afraid of the prospect of a

Trump says it depends on China how soon tariffs can come down: have spoken to 90 countries regarding tariffs already over the next 2 – 3 weeks will set tariff for China If we don’t make a deal, we’re just setting the price, then they can decide if they want China is not doing any

The comment is from Germany’s finance minister, Joerg Kukies. He had earlier in the day say that it is urgent to try and reduce tariffs uncertainty but as things stand, it remains to be seen when we will be getting any concrete negotiations between the US and EU. And even so, there’s not telling how

This was always going to be the danger when the SNB sought to cut interest rates to 0.25% just before the whole tariffs/trade war blew up in the past two months. In its latest note, Nomura is now forecasting two more 25 bps rate cuts by the SNB this year. That opposed to their previous

The U.S. Commerce Department has initiated a national security investigation under Section 232 into imports of medium- and heavy-duty trucks and their components. The review aims to determine whether these imports threaten national security, potentially leading to new tariffs. The investigation focuses on foreign-made work trucks and parts. If deemed a security risk, the government

German DAX futures -0.1% French CAC 40 futures -0.3% UK FTSE futures -0.1% This comes with US futures also losing steam, with S&P 500 futures now down 0.4% on the day. Trump provided some optimism earlier in the week that he will be “very nice” to China and that tariffs will come down. But yesterday,

Good morning, afternoon and evening all. Any charts, technical analysis, trade ideas, thoughts, views, ForexLive traders would like to share and discuss with fellow ForexLive traders, please do so: This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

Prior 92 The reading is unchanged relative to March as household confidence keeps below the long-term average of 100 still. There hasn’t been much improvement in sentiment since the turn of the year, with unemployment prospects keeping on the higher side notably. This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

So we have the Treasury Secretary and White House spokeswoman saying this but she is also saying that it’s up to Trump on what the China tariff rate will be. That gets to the heart of the issue: Even if they’re saying this, Trump often changes his mind. You used to be able to assume

ECBs Muller in an interview says: Too soon to tell whether June will be a cut or a pause Monetary policy is no longer restrictive. Rates may need to be cut below neutral on trade concerns This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

UBS has warned that Trump’s renewed calls for lower interest rates risk further eroding confidence in the Federal Reserve’s independence — a dynamic markets are increasingly wary of. In a note to clients, UBS analysts argued that the looming slowdown in the U.S. economy is being driven more by a surge in uncertainty than by

The Fed’s Beige Book is due out at 2 pm ET. This should be an interesting edition as it should outline some challenges around tariffs and the potential for falling orders. This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland President Beth Hammack: big uncertainty over the outlook continues to argue for the Fed taking it slow on monetary policy to see how the economy performs “This is not a good time to be pre-emptive” with monetary policy “This is a good time to watch and watch” and gather data

China is preparing to remove sanctions on several Members of the European Parliament (MEPs) as part of efforts to revive its long-stalled investment agreement with the European Union. A spokesperson for European Parliament President Roberta Metsola confirmed that talks with Chinese officials are nearing completion and that she will brief parliamentary group leaders once the

Trump threatens higher tariffs on Canadian car imports, escalating trade tensions warned that the existing 25% tariff on Canadian car imports could be raised pushing his interest to bolster U.S. auto production and reduce dependence on foreign-made vehicles “We don’t want your cars … we want to make our own” ** Canada is a major

CNBC with the report, in brief: A dozen states sued President Donald Trump and his administration, seeking a court order declaring that his new tariffs are illegal. “The president does not have the power to raise taxes on a whim, but that’s exactly what President Trump has been doing with these tariffs,” New York Attorney

Ryan Petersen from Flexport today highlights that it’s been 3 weeks since large US tariffs were put on China and that ocean container bookings are down over 60% across the industry. He notes that the US imports $600 billion in goods (though I think the correct number is $460 billion) from China annually and those

There are no winners in tariffs and trade wars The fact that China is airing such commentary doesn’t really suggest we’re moving closer to bridging the gap. Today, Xi is welcoming President Ruto of Kenya in Beijing. The optics continue to show that while Trump hammers down on China on trade and tariffs, Xi is

As it’s been the case since April 2, the data won’t matter much for the markets as they remain focused on trade negotiations progress. There’s one economic report though that could move the markets, and that is the US Jobless Claims data. The US Jobless Claims continue to be one of the most important releases

Eamon Javers from CNBC is reporting tha the Chinese embassy has issued a statement addressing U.S.-China trade negotiations, emphasizing the following points: China’s “doors are open” if the U.S. genuinely wants to engage in talks. If the U.S. seeks a negotiated solution, it must stop threatening and blackmailing China. Constructive dialogue should be based on

MUFG expects the European Central Bank to resume easing in June, arguing that a wide range of disinflationary forces leave little justification for delaying a return to neutral policy settings. The bank anticipates a 25bp cut next month, likely accompanied by a downgrade to the ECB’s official inflation forecasts. euro area inflation now facing well-defined

Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland President Beth Hammack speaks before the Money Marketeers of New York University Supports ongoing quantitative tightening (QT), a slower drawdown pace will allow longer process Fed’s balance sheet has shrunk from $9T to $6.8T since QT began in 2022 Money market liquidity still appears abundant Supported Fed’s recent slowdown in

Japan economy minister Akazawa to visit the U.S. for tariff talks from April 30. NHK confirmation of this from yesterday Japan economy minister Akazawa could visit U.S. for tariff talks as early as April 30 I posted this pic of him in that linked post above, he’s in the hat! This article was written by

There aren’t any major expiries to take note of on the day, though there are some large ones for EUR/USD and USD/JPY that could factor into play on any notable price extensions. But for now, they are sitting some distance away from the current spot prices. As such, trading sentiment will continue to be dictated

As National Economic Council Director Hassett he is Trump’s head adviser on the economy: says USTR has 14 meetings scheduled with foreign trade ministers received 18 written offers from foreign trade ministers China open to talks Don’t get too optimistic on this sort of guff. On Wednesday US Treasury Secretary Bessent admitted that a full

The National Development and Reform Commission of the People’s Republic of China (NDRC) has trimmed the number of items on its negative list from 117 to 106 The Negative List for Market Access (2025 Edition) has been approved by the CPC Central Committee and the State Council and will be issued and implemented from now

People’s Bank of China USD/CNY reference rate is due around 0115 GMT. The People’s Bank of China (PBOC), China’s central bank, is responsible for setting the daily midpoint of the yuan (also known as renminbi or RMB). The PBOC follows a managed floating exchange rate system that allows the value of the yuan to fluctuate

South Korea’s economy shrank 0.2% q/q in Q1 expected + 0.1% Its first quarterly contraction since mid-2024 and missing forecasts for modest growth. Exports fell 1.1% (were + 0.8% in Q4 2024) private consumption also weakened amid growing concerns over U.S. tariff impacts The data strengthens the case for further rate cuts, with the Bank

The People’s Bank of China (PBOC), China’s central bank, is responsible for setting the daily midpoint of the yuan (also known as renminbi or RMB). The PBOC follows a managed floating exchange rate system that allows the value of the yuan to fluctuate within a certain range, called a “band,” around a central reference rate,

UK Chancelor of the Exchequer Reeves is no the wires saying: UK will not rush trade talks with the U.S. UK will not relax food standards to secure a U.S. trade deal UK borrowing data reinforces the importance of controlling public finances UK announces measures to prevent future dumping of unfairly priced imports UK will

High yield 3.995% WI level at the time of the auction 4.005% Tail -1.0 basis points vs. six-month average of 0.1 basis points Bid to cover 2.41X vs 6 month average of 2.40X Dealers 11.12% versus six-month average of 12.1% Direct 24.8% vs average vs six-month average of 17.7% Indirect (international) 64.04% vs six-month average

Trump says 25% tariff on cars from Canada could go higher: we don’t want cars from Canada has spoken to Canadian Prime Minister Carney, we’ve had nice conversations working on a deal with Canada dollar is a bit on the low side not considering changes to auto parts, auto tariffs (contradicting this from earlier: The

Japan finmin Kato: US tariffs, countermeasures are creating uncertainties in financial market told G7 US tariffs are highly disappointing Stressed that free trade regime promotion important Constructive policy discussion important refrains from comment on Bessent’s foreign exchange remarks This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

While not the data calendar, Trump is likely to be speaking at 5pm US Eastern time on Wednesday (2100 GMT). We’ll get the services PPI from Japan today, for March 2025. AKA the Corporate Services Price Index. Its unlikely to be yen mover much upon release. The Reserve Bank of Australia Bulletin is published quarterly

The AUDUSD is tilting more bearish after falling below its 100-hour and 200-hour moving averages in today’s trading. The break below the 100-hour MA (currently near 0.6395), combined with a failure to stay above the previous ceiling near 0.6390, signaled growing downside pressure. That ceiling had previously acted as resistance multiple times, as highlighted by

Trump spoke from the Oval Office: Trump says it depends on China how soon tariffs can come down More on Trump threatening higher tariffs on Canadian car imports Earlier, from minions, placing a cross hairs back on the EU: Trump admin says the EU fine on Meta and Apple will not be tolerated Globex is

The US is backtracking on tariffs at the moment but you wonder how much lasting damage has been done and if investors will trim US exposure. Goldman Sachs has been highlighting the same trend. Confidence in the US policymaking landscape isn’t particularly high at the moment. This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

After the major US stock indices tumbled on Monday with declines of -2.5% and greater, the last two trading days have seen solid gains. Today’s move was helped by hopes for turf reprieves and from comments from Pres. Trump that he does not going to fire “Too Late” Powell. Looking at the major indices Dow

More from ECBs Knot: Not concerned about prospect of stronger EUR and smaller current-account surplus The EURUSD has traded to the highest level going back to November 2021 this week (the high price on Monday reached 1.15726).. At the start of the session today, the price fell sharply to a low of 1.1307. The current

Uncertainty around international trade policy was pervasive A few more districts than previously reported declines in employment Several districts reported firms taking a “wait-and-see approach to employment” while others are actively “preparing for layoffs.” The outlook in several districts worsened considerably as economic uncertainty around tariffs rose Prices increased across districts, similarly to the prior

Crude oil futures is settling at $62.27. That is down $1.40 or -2.20%. There was a report earlier today that several OPEC+ members want the group to approve another accelerated oil output increase for June at meeting on May 5. The news sent the price to a low for the day at $61.55. That low

Some of the earnings after the close include: ServiceNow (NOW) Q1 2025: EPS $4.04 (BEAT; exp. $3.85), Revenue $3.09B (MET; exp. $3.08B). Shares are up 7.67% Chipotle Mexican Grill (CMG) Q1 2025: EPS $0.28 (MET; exp. $0.28), Revenue $2.88B (MISS; exp. $2.95B). Shares are down -5.15% in after-hours trading IBM (IBM) Q1 2025: EPS $1.60

Dive into the intersection of cryptocurrency and forex trading. Learn how Bitcoin’s price swings, accessed through MoonPay’s platform, can amplify forex strategies. Discover practical steps to integrate BTC transactions into your trading toolkit. Stay ahead in 2025’s dynamic markets. Bitcoin’s meteoric rise past $100,000 in 2024 has forex traders buzzing. Its volatility, once a deterrent,

Fed’s Musalem does not speak on the economic outlook in speech text. Waller also does not comment on economy or Fed policy in his remarks. This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

The USDCAD has moved higher in the North American session, breaking back above a key swing area between 1.38078 and 1.38499 (highlighted by the red numbered circles on the chart). The rally has taken the pair up to a session high near 1.3890. On the 4-hour chart, the next upside target comes into focus near

Manufacturing PMI 48.0 vs 47.6 expected and 48.3 prior Services PMI 48.8 vs 50.2 expected and 50.9 prior Composite PMI 49.7 vs 50.4 expected and 51.3 prior Key findings: HCOB Flash Germany Composite PMI Output Index 4-month low. HCOB Flash Germany Services PMI Business Activity Index 14-month low. HCOB Flash Germany Manufacturing PMI Output Index

US Treasury Secretary Bessent at the IMF conference says IMF, World Bank serve critical roles in international system. U.S. administration is eager to work with IMF and World Bank as long as they stay true to their missions. No one who financed or supplied the Russian war machine will be eligible for funds earmarked for

Prior was +0.1% The new housing pipeline in Canada is completely drying up, at least in the condo market. This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

I’ve been seeing lots of people complaining about the lack of market reaction to economic data. This is something I’ve been warning about every day since April 2. Here’s the thing about economic data. The data is by definition backward looking but the market is a forward looking machine. To trade economic data successfully, one

The S&P 500 continues to fade negative news and rally strongly on positive developments. This is a signal that the market is looking forward to more de-escalation and eventually trade deals as Trump continues to cave in. We bottomed on April 9 when we reached the peak in escalation and Trump paused the tariffs for

The USDCHF surged higher on Wednesday following comments from former President Trump on China and on Fed Chair Powell (he will not be fired… today), pushing the pair through recent highs and up to test the 38.2% retracement of April’s trading range at 0.82809. That level held, and the pair rotated back lower. This comes

Services PMI 48.9 vs 51.5 expected and 52.5 prior Manufacturing PMI 44.0 vs 44.0 expected and 44.9 prior Composite PMI 48.2 vs 50.4 expected and 51.5 prior. Key findings: Flash UK PMI Composite Output Index at 29-month low. Flash UK Services PMI Business Activity Index at 27-month low. Flash UK Manufacturing Output Index at 32-month

Speaking at the IMF conference, Bank of England Bailey is saying: Fragmenting the world economy will be bad for growth. UK is an open economy so US relation with the rest of the world matters. We do have to take very seriously the risks to growth. China has had sustained a week household domestic demand,

Even the most seasoned CFD traders can fall into psychological traps—from chasing the hype to holding poor trades out of stubborn hope. Emotional biases can cloud judgment and lead even experienced traders to costly blunders. However, psychological resilience reduces the risk of a loss. Octa Broker, as part of its commitment to traders’ education, explores

The broader US stock indices are trading higher on the day but trading at session lows. The S&P index is up 76.57 points or 1.44% at 5363.16. The high for the day reached 5469.69 the NASDAQ index is up 375 points or 2.29% at 16671.80. The high for the day reached 17029.86 At session highs

It remains all about the tariffs as Trump has folded on his campaign against Jerome Powell, and evidently in his campaign against China. That has S&P 500 futures op 2.3% on top of yesterday’s 3% gain. I don’t think that economic data or central banks speak will be what derails that today but it will

Tariffs would leave a persistent decrease in output In the near term, inflation might fall faster than March projections due to energy and uncertainty Global supply chains could put upward pressure on prices in the medium term Dynamics of underlying inflation are looking good at the moment Before US tariffs announcement I would have favored

The USD moved higher in the early Asian Pacific session as the ups-and-downs from Pres. Trump continued. He eased rhetoric on China which was the topic yesterday after comments from Treas Sec.Bessent that the standoff with China — which he said was essentially an embargo — is unsustainable and that he expects it to de-escalate.

Crude oil inventories +0.244M vs -0.770M estimate gasoline inventories -4.476M vs -1.375M estimate Distillates -2.353M vs -0.028M estimate Cushing -0.086M vs a drawdown of -0.654M last week. The private data released late yesterday showed drawdowns in each of the major components: The price of crude oil is currently down around one dollar at $62.42. The

Prior month 50.2 Manufacturing PMI 50.7 versus 50.2 last month Services PMI flash for April 51.4 versus 52.5 estimate. Prior month 54.4 Composite index 51.2 versus 53.5 last month. This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

Says would not be surprised if China-US tariffs went down in a mutual way Declines to comment on earlier WSJ story Tariff rates are unsustainable Does not have time frame for start of China talks, will have to take place at lower levels than Trump-Xi With India, we are very close to a tariff deal

This is not the right way to deal with China and it is not feasible US should conduct dialogue with China on the basis of equality and mutual benefit This continues to allude to the notion that Trump looks to be negotiating with himself for the most part when it comes to the China commentary

The Mexican peso and stock markets have done well this year even as the growth outlook dims. Yesterday the IMF downgraded Mexican GDP forecasts and now the World Bank sees no growth at all this year as it now sees 0% GDP growth compared to 1.5% in January. Other LatAm changes: Brazil to 1.8% from

The NZDUSD pushed to a new high today—its highest level since November 2024—before stalling near a key swing area between 0.6031 and 0.6045, which also includes the 61.8% retracement of the decline from the late September 2024 high, coming in at 0.60357. After failing to break through that resistance zone, the pair rotated lower and

Fed’s Garparino: This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

Rate cuts by year-end Fed: 83 bps (92% probability of no change at the upcoming meeting) ECB: 59 bps (70% probability of rate cut at the upcoming meeting) BoE: 92 bps (99% probability of rate cut at the upcoming meeting) BoC: 42 bps (55% probability of no change at the upcoming meeting) RBA: 119 bps