Europe has now awakened to the importance of AI data factories. We are building AI technology centers in seven different countries. Europe is building 20 more AI factories that are gigafactories. In two years, Europe’s AI computing capacity will increase by a factor of 10. Last week, we got reports that Nvidia was going to […]

Prior -3.9% Market index 254.6 vs 226.4 prior Purchase index 170.9 vs 155.0 prior Refinance index 707.4 vs 611.8 prior 30-year mortgage rate 6.93% vs 6.92% prior After weeks of slumping, mortgage applications bounced back strongly in the past week with both purchases and refinancing activities surging higher. The jump in the purchase index in

Treasury Secretary Bessent is back in Washington and made his scheduled testimony appointment on Capitol Hill. In addition to speaking about the China deal, he adds on the economy, that: Capital investments will increase once tax and spending bill is enacted. Just ahead is a interview with commerce Sec. Howard Lutnick on CNBC This article

Earlier, we noted that Trump spoke in a New York Post podcast and said he was much less confident in a nuclear deal with Iran. That has led to strong gains in crude with WTI up $1.25 to $66.23. “They seem to be delaying, and I think that’s a shame, but I’m less confident now

Trump will sign three resolutions on Thursday abolishing California’s electric vehicle sales mandates and diesel engine rules US politics site Politico with the report. more to come I wonder if its personal? At least some of it. Regardless, TSLA shareholders will be paying attention to this. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

Tesla CEO Elon Musk says the first vehicle to autonomously drive itself from the factory directly to a customer’s home is scheduled for June 28 public Robotaxi rides are tentatively set to begin on June 22 Musk wants some sizzle back in TSLA after his political distractions. Earlier news on EVs: Trump to sign three

Upbeat comments from Lutnick and stocks are quickly higher with the S&P 500 touching the highs of the day. We will try to finish things tonight Talks could go into tomorrow if needed “We’re working on all sorts of trade issues. I think the talks are going really well,” he told press outside of Lancaster

The times below are in GMT/US Eastern time format: 0900/0500 Keynote speech followed by fireside chat by ECB board member Claudia Buch at Goldman Sachs European Financials Conference Buch is Chair of the ECB Supervisory Board 0930/0530 Panel participation by ECB board member Philip Lane at the 2025 Government Borrowers Forum in Dublin, Ireland Philip

The USDJPY rallied ahead of the US CPI release but stalled after reaching the 50% retracement of the decline from the May high. Once the weaker-than-expected CPI data was released, sellers took control, pushing the pair sharply lower. The decline broke below the 38.2% retracement level at 144.651 and the 100-hour moving average, currently at

Just as Tesla was starting to bounce back after months of intense scrutiny, fueled mainly by Elon Musk’s deepening involvement in politics, another storm has hit. And this time, it’s personal. Musk took a jab at Donald Trump, and surprise, surprise: Tesla’s stock took a hit, subsequently impacting the S&P 500 and Nasdaq. In short,

The NZDUSD moved higher following the weaker-than-expected US CPI report, which triggered broad USD weakness and lifted the pair toward the highs for the week. However, the rally lost steam just as price tested the upper end of the recent range, failing to break through resistance near 0.6070. Technically, the dip earlier in the day

Futures rollover refers to the process where traders close out positions in the expiring contract and open new ones in the next available contract. This is crucial for traders in U.S. equity index futures, such as the S&P 500 (ES), Nasdaq 100 (NQ), Dow Jones (YM), and Russell 2000 (RTY), as these contracts have set

Headline CPI: CPI +2.4% vs +2.5% expected (some forecasts were 2.4%) Prior was +2.9% m/m reading at +0.1% vs +0.2% expected (unrounded consensus was +0.16%) Month-over-month unrounded +0.081% vs +0.221% prior Core CPI: Core CPI +2.8% vs +2.9% expected Core CPI m/m +0.1% vs +0.2% expected (some forecasts were +0.27%) Core unrounded +0.130% vs +0.237%

Less confident about Iran deal. Crude oil prices are surging on this comment made in a New York Post Podcast interview. Unfortunately it was reported a bit later by the newswires, so those who caught the interview managed to capitalise on the move (this is why the big boys invest so heavily in information. That’s

US headline CPI rose 2.4% y/y in line with some forecasts but below the 2.5% consensus and down from 2.9% prior. Monthly CPI was up 0.1% (unrounded +0.081%), also softer than expected. Core CPI increased 2.8% y/y (vs 2.9% expected) with a monthly gain of 0.1% (unrounded +0.130%), showing continued disinflation. Key drivers included declines

Well, it looks like the tensions are behind us. At some point, it looked like a real risk for the economy as a whole as Musk could try to block the Trump’s tax bill. That’s what led to the selloff in risk assets that eventually got erased as things started to improve. This article was

Global equities are likely to trend higher over the next three months U.S. stocks possibly playing catch-up to other markets medium-term outlook is less certain Near-term upward bias is supported by a resilient macro backdrop and muted fallout from recent tariffs. Balance of risks worsens beyond the Q3: with equity markets already near their highs,

This idea has been floated multiple times over past years. Its getting a redo in the headlines again today. Sichuan province city Mianyang is considering a 2.5-day weekend businesses to close on Friday afternoons, along with Saturdays and Sundays Mianyang is the second-largest city in Sichuan province in terms of gross domestic product, it has

IF China will uphold its end of the initial Geneva trade agreement, a ‘big, beautiful rebalancing’ of US and China economies is possible I think ‘possible’ is doing a lot of work here. This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

Trump is out with a message on Truth Social about the deal with China. Naturally, he wrote it in all caps: OUR DEAL WITH CHINA IS DONE, SUBJECT TO FINAL APPROVAL WITH PRESIDENT XI AND ME. FULL MAGNETS, AND ANY NECESSARY RARE EARTHS, WILL BE SUPPLIED, UP FRONT, BY CHINA. LIKEWISE, WE WILL PROVIDE TO

The US CPI data will be released at 8:30 AM ET with the expectation of 0.2% for the MoM headline and 0.3% for the core. That data may be the catalyst for more price action in the currency markets. In today’s video, I break down the latest movements in the US dollar against three of

The EURUSD is trading higher after a softer-than-expected US CPI report triggered a broad USD selloff. The weaker inflation data reinforced market expectations for rate cuts, pushing the pair sharply higher. However, the rally stalled just below the key resistance from last week’s high, with today’s peak reaching 1.1489—just shy of the 1.14935 high from

German DAX futures -0.4% UK FTSE futures -0.2% This comes as S&P 500 futures are also seen down 0.3% on the day. So far, we only know that the US and China have agreed on a plan/framework to ease tensions a bit more moving forward. The expectation is that it will involve an exchange of

We’ve witnessed a pretty bad spat between Musk and Trump last week on social media with both of them firing shots at each other. At some point, Musk might have gone too far claiming that Trump was on Epstein files. Nonetheless, this looks like an apology and the worst might be behind us. It’s hard

Prior month -4.1% revised to -5.3% Building permits for April -6.6% vs 2.0% estimate. Much worse than expectations on the month and revision. The USDCAD has moved lower as the market is paying attention to the lower US CPI data initially at least. That is driving the USD against ALL the major currencies. A look

Trump is tweeting up a storm this morning: Adding to the China readout, President XI and I are going to work closely together to open up China to American Trade. This would be a great WIN for both countries!!! Let’s see what comes next. This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

Cut last week helps keep price undershoot temporary. Again more focus on the risk of undershooting on their inflation target. The market expects just one final rate cut in December. This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at www.forexlive.com.

Eurostoxx +0.1% Germany DAX flat France CAC 40 +0.2% UK FTSE +0.2% Spain IBEX -0.6% Italy FTSE MIB -0.1% S&P 500 futures are down 0.3% as investors are still digesting what may come from the final details of the US-China trade talks in London over the past two days. Coming up later, we also have

Quite likely keeping 2% inflation will require some further cuts for fine tuning. Market pricing of one more cut or so not out of the realm of the baseline. Fine-tuning cuts will very much depend on how the economy develops. May at some point, not yet by any means, go into accommodative territory. Must be

An official cited by Bloomberg: Trump will hold new China tariffs at 30% 10% baseline 20% fentanyl Total effective tariff rate will be 55% I don’t understand how the math here works. Update from a Bloomberg reporter: I’m told the “55%” he cites here is the status quo – no change from last month’s truce.

Proprietary trading, or prop trading, is one of the financial service industry’s latest and most popular product offerings. The reason why it is so sought-after is because it offers talented and capable traders fully funded accounts. Although it might sound too good to be true, it is actually based on mutual benefit; when your trades

TradeLocker is the next-gen trading platform built by listening to the needs of traders, brokers, and prop firms that refuse to trade in the past. It emerged as a response to the lack of innovation in the trading industry. Mainstream trading platforms failed to engage directly with their user base and lacked an intuitive interface

1000 GMT/0600 US Eastern time – Speech by Executive Director for Financial Stability Strategy and Risk at Bank of England Nathanael Benjamin at the Global investment management summit ‘Delivering financial stability and economic growth for investment management This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

Fintech360 has had a banner year, and continuing their string of achievements is a prestigious nomination for the UF AWARDS GLOBAL 2025. The company’s excitement isn’t unwarranted; these awards are considered some of the industry’s most credible and transparent, since the winners are voted for by the public. Although the competition is fierce in the

There are a couple to take note of on the day, as highlighted in bold. The first one being for EUR/USD at the 1.1400 level once more. The expiries are likely to keep price action more limited in the session ahead, centered around the figure level with the 200-hour moving average at 1.1404 helping to

Seems like talks are not proceeding that quickly despite Trump saying that his previous 50% tariff threat sped up the process. The US-China talks are a testament to that as they haven’t reached a deal but just a framework to implement the Geneva agreements. Of course, this shouldn’t be a surprise given that this stuff

Nasdaq Technical Analysis with tradeCompass for Today (June 11, 2025) Current Nasdaq Futures Price: $21,893 Nasdaq Analysis Today: Market Context & Directional Bias At the time of this Nasdaq analysis, futures are trading at $21,882. Today’s tradeCompass suggests patience for traders, recommending waiting for a retracement into our defined bullish entry zone between $21,850 (June

Government making utmost efforts to overcome rising prices Cannot agree on call to reduce consumption tax rate It will take a long time to adjust system for lower consumption tax rate on food It is not true that government is mulling providing cash handouts Sharp rises in JGB yields have undesirable impact on economy, fiscal

Will protect auto industry, no plans to sacrifice agriculture in exchange It sounds like their stance hasn’t changed whatsoever even after the numerous weeks of visits by Akazawa to Washington. Tick tock, tick tock. 29 days to go. This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

The ranges of estimates are important in terms of market reaction because when the actual data deviates from the expectations, it creates a surprise effect. Another important input in market’s reaction is the distribution of forecasts. In fact, although we can have a range of estimates, most forecasts might be clustered on the upper bound

The GBPUSD made a bold push to fresh highs not seen since 2022, but momentum stalled just shy of the critical 50% retracement level from the 2014 high near 1.3768. Now the price is back in the thick of the old swing area between 1.3411 and 1.3514, and traders are battling it out for control.

US, Mexico are closing in on a deal that would remove President Donald Trump’s 50% tariffs on steel imports up to a certain volume – Bloomberg News with the info. No further details at present. More: US and Mexico are nearing a deal to remove Trump’s 50% steel tariffs in exchange for a cap on

A federal appeals court has ruled that former Trump’s broad tariffs can remain in effect while legal appeals continue. The decision temporarily suspends a lower court ruling that found Trump exceeded his authority by imposing the tariffs under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) — a law typically used for national security sanctions. The

BofA and Morgan Stanley expect May’s US CPI report to show a modest rise in both headline and core inflation. While headline pressures remain subdued, core inflation is expected to stay firm, reinforcing the view that disinflation will be slow and uneven, keeping the Fed on hold. Key Points: BofA Forecast: Headline CPI: +0.2% m/m

U.S. Treasury Secretary Bessent: Bessent says he has to go back to DC to testify before Congress Greer and Lutnick will carry on with trade talks We have had 2 days of productive talks, talks are ongoing Talks will be continuing as needed Bessent. Bessent’s departure raises the possibility that talks are not going well

Fundamental Overview The USD remains mostly rangebound even though the better than expected NFP report triggered a slightly more hawkish repricing in interest rates expectations and sent Treasury yields higher. The next two key events for the greenback are the US CPI today and the FOMC decision next week. The dollar will need hawkish stuff

Global investors are increasingly turning to Japan’s long-dated government bonds, drawn by rising yields and heavy supply, according to Morgan Stanley. With the Bank of Japan scaling back bond purchases and local institutions not stepping in to buy, 30- and 40-year JGB yields have reached new highs — creating attractive opportunities for overseas buyers from

Boeing urges Trump administration to ensure tariff-free treatment for airplanes, parts as condition of any new trade deal China, Mexico, European Union, Japan urge Trump administration not to impose new national security tariffs on imported planes, parts Info via news wires citing filings with Commerce This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

Good morning, afternoon and evening all. Any charts, technical analysis, trade ideas, thoughts, views, ForexLive traders would like to share and discuss with fellow ForexLive traders, please do so: This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

And that’s about it. After two days of long talks, both sides are content to work out a plan or framework to ease tensions just that little bit more. The headlines in case you missed them: Chinese Vice Commerce Minister Li Chenggang says talks with US on trade rational, candid Lutnick says reached a framework

Trump is set to sign three congressional resolutions that overturn California’s ambitious electric vehicle (EV) and emissions regulations, according to sources familiar with the matter. Headlines on this from earlier are here, but no further details were added: Trump to sign three resolutions on Thursday canning California’s electric vehicle mandates The move targets California’s plan

The PPI data comes from the Bank of Japan. Producer Price Index (YoY) (May) +3.2% expected 3.5%, prior 4.0% Producer Price Index (MoM) (May) -0.2% expected 0.2%, prior 0.2% Yesterday Bank of Japan Governor Ueda expressed worry about inflation (at the consumer level) falling short of his 2% taregt: Underlying inflation still below 2% This

The US dollar is attracting a few bids with a lower EUR, AUD, NZD, GBP. CAD, yen and CHF are little changed. Earlier we had the news out of London: Lutnick says reached a framework with China, if approved will implement Geneva agreement The US and China agreed in Geneva last month to lower tariffs.

Former Reserve Bank of New Zealand Governor Adrian Orr resigned suddenly in March 2025, just weeks before the government announced a 25% funding cut to the central bank. Newly released documents confirm Orr stepped down after determining the bank could no longer fulfill its mandate under the reduced budget, which had been agreed to by

Lutnick: Talks are going really well, hope they end this evening World Bank cuts 2025 global growth forecast by 0.4 percentage points Bessent might shift from Treasury to Fed chair – report US treasury auctions $58B of 3 year notes at a high yield of 3.972% Drill, baby, drill? US agency sees US oil prodcution

In the European session, we don’t have anything on the agenda except a few ECB speakers. In the American session, all eyes will be on the US CPI report. The Core CPI Y/Y is expected at 2.9% vs 2.8% prior, while the M/M figure is seen at 0.3% vs 0.2% prior. Inflation is expected to

Ethereum (ETH) Futures: Comprehensive Analysis & Institutional Bullish Signals The past weeks have seen Ethereum (ETH) futures steadily gaining momentum, marked by increasing trading volumes and institutional inflows. The evolving landscape of Ethereum ETFs further supports a bullish short-term narrative, driving increased optimism among crypto traders and investors. This article provides a detailed technical and

Some positive news out of the US-China trade talks in London. The framework agreement reached depends on Trump approving it. I can’t see why not, unless he is one of his moods. Bolding is mine, looks positive, but it is clear its not yet a trade deal. Still, have to start somewhere, right?: U.S. Commerce

No one expects BOJ to raise rates at policy meeting next week 30 of 58 economists (52%) expect rates to stay unchanged through year-end (previously 48%) 40 of 51 economists (78%) expect at least one rate hike by March 2026 17 of 31 economists (55%) see BOJ slowing down bond buying from April 2026 onwards

Chinese Vice Commerce Minister Li Chenggang : talks with U.S. had involved in depth exchanges communication has been rational and candid two sides agreed a consensus on Geneva meeting two sides agreed a consensus on Geneva meeting This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

A Bloomberg survey shows most economists expect the Bank of Japan to keep its benchmark interest rate at 0.5% during its June 17 meeting and begin slowing the pace of government bond purchase reductions. While no rate move is anticipated, the main focus will be the BOJ’s plan for quantitative tightening, as bond market volatility

Japan Services Producer Price Index (PPI) is due today. It measures the average change over time in the prices received by service providers (in the private sector) for their services in Japan: Data published by the Bank of Japan covers services such as transportation and communication, finance and insurance, wholesale and retail trade, and others

People’s Bank of China USD/CNY reference rate is due around 0115 GMT. The People’s Bank of China (PBOC), China’s central bank, is responsible for setting the daily midpoint of the yuan (also known as renminbi or RMB). The PBOC follows a managed floating exchange rate system that allows the value of the yuan to fluctuate

Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney announced an immediate rise in military spending to 2% of GDP yesterday (from 1.37%) and said it would rise from there. He also suggested there would be an effort to source more from the domestic market, rather than importing it from the United States. The jump this year means $9

The China Iron and Steel Association (CISA) is forecasting a 4% decline in Chinese steel production for 2025. This projection is influenced by the shift away from infrastructure-heavy development and government policies aimed at reducing carbon emissions China’s steel production has been on a downward trajectory since 2021, when Beijing began imposing annual growth caps

Goldman Sachs expects tariffs to push up goods prices and overall inflation in the coming months, with core inflation likely to rise even as pressures in labour, housing, and autos moderate. In Wednesday’s May CPI report, the bank forecasts a modest tariff-related impact, nudging core inflation up 0.05 percentage points to 0.25% month-on-month. Looking ahead,

RBC keeps its EUR/USD forecasts conservative, with an end-Q2 target of 1.14 and end-Q3 at 1.15. Despite bullish sentiment and positioning, RBC sees limited upside in the near term as catalysts lose momentum and both the Fed and ECB appear steady on policy. Key Points: Conservative Forecasts: RBC leaves its end-Q2 EUR/USD target unchanged at

The US and Mexico are nearing an agreement to eliminate President Donald Trump’s 50% tariffs on a pre-determined volume of steel imports, according to sources familiar with the discussions cited by Bloomberg. The deal would update a similar arrangement made during Trump’s first term. I think Canada and the US are set for a similar

Via oilprice.com twitter: — Expectations I had seen centred on: Headline crude -2 mn barrels Distillates +0.8 mn bbls Gasoline +0.9 mn This data point is from a privately-conducted survey by the American Petroleum Institute (API). It’s a survey of oil storage facilities and companies The official report is due Wednesday morning US time. The

I have been highlighting a potential invterted head-and-shoulders pattern on the WTI crude oil chart but today was a setback, or at least a false start. Crude rose to as high as $66.28 in a two-month high but turned around in US trading and settled 31-cents lower to $64.98. The EIA released a report highlighting

The Treasury will auction $58 billion in 3-year notes at 1:00 PM ET, launching this week’s coupon supply calendar. Results will be closely watched, with investor demand measured against the 5-key component 6 month auction averages. Metrics to watch vs 6-auction avg: Tail: 6- month avg. 0.5bps. The difference between the high yield and the

Prior 95.8 The 98.8 figure is slightly above the 51-year average of 98. Expected business conditions and sales expectations contributed the most to the rise in the index. The Uncertainty Index rose two points from April to 94. Eighteen percent of small business owners reported taxes as their single most important problem, up two points

The NZDUSD remains firm helped by hopes for a US/China deal that would help to benefit both countries (presumingly) and give the NZ economy a boost too. Technically, the pair trades near its highest levels of the year, with price action holding above a strong technical cluster that includes: The rising 100-hour MA at 0.6037

Is the AUDUSD setting up for a breakout or a reversal? The chart shows a powerful confluence of resistance just ahead. Tap the video above to see the levels that could define the next major move in this currency pair. . This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

The race to replace Jerome Powell hasn’t truly kicked off yet but there is some positioning in the background. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent has emerged as a candidate, according to Bloomberg. Powell’s term doesn’t end until May 2026 and he was nominated (by Trump) on November 2, 2017 so the timeline is still long. The

Prior -8.1 That’s a surprise beat as investor sentiment showed an upturn in Germany notably for June. The sentiment index for Germany might still be negative at -5.9 but that’s the highest reading since March 2022. All in all, it points to the initial shock from Trump tariffs slowly subsiding as the expectations index also

The major US stock indices are trading to new session highs and new highs for the week. Both the S&P and NASDAQ indices are up nearly 0.4% on the day. The Dow industrial average is up 0.27% The US treasury will auction off for your notes imminently with the WI yield trading at 3.968% This

High Yield: 3.972% WI level at the time of the auction: 3.968% Tail: 0.4 bps vs. 6- month avg. 0.5bps. The difference between the high yield and the when-issued yield (pre-auction market rate. A negative tail is indication of strong bidding. A positive tail implies less demand Bid-to-Cover: 2.52X vs 6-month avg. 2.62x. Total bids

The overtime negotiations puts into question Treas Sec. Bessents Congressional testimony scheduled for tomorrow This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

A US official cited by Reuters says talks have concluded. We will now wait for headlines to find out what was achieved, if anything. This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

A US official is saying that the US/China talks are ongoing. They are working out technical details. I guess that is good news. Not so good news is that a Senior Administration official is saying Iran appears to be dragging negotiations on without concrete progress. They continue to push forward with nuclear efforts. This article

Fundamental Overview Gold remains mostly rangebound as the market continues to wait for a catalyst to pick a direction. This week the main events are the US-China trade talks in London and the release of the US CPI report. On the trade talks side, the expected positive outcome will likely keep a lid on further

The US Commerce Secretary Lutnick says US-China talks were fruitful US Sec of Treasury Bessant added Talks says they had a good meeting. Trump adds: China is not easy but we are doing well with China. This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

Indian and US negotiators made progress in their latest round of talks focused on access for industrial and some agricultural goods, tariffs and non-tariff barriers, according to a Reuters report citing Indian government sources. The report came after four days of talks but it’s not at the finish line yet and “negotiations will continue”. The

The USD remained mostly rangebound following the better than expected NFP report where hot wage growth figures triggered a slightly more hawkish repricing in interest rates expectations and sent Treasury yields higher. That wasn’t enough to lift the greenback though and traders are now focusing on the next key events including the US-China trade talks,

Reuters Poll on US Fed rate path and the economy shows: 59 out of 105 economists in a Reuters poll expects the Fed to resume rate cuts next quarter, likely in September. Over 60% of those polled see the Fed cutting rates at least twice in 2025. U.S. economic growth forecasts remain unchanged from May:

S&P 500 futures are up 9 points or 0.15% ahead of the open with Nasdaq futures up by about the same margin. Shares of Apple are flat in the pre-market after falling yesterday on a poor reception from its annual developer event. Tesla shares are up 2% after an impressive turnaround yesterday and eyes are

US May NFIB small business optimism index 98.8 vs 95.9 expected Lutnick: Talks with China are going well ECB’s Rehn: We will take decisions meeting by meeting Eurozone June Sentix investor confidence +0.2 vs -6.0 expected SNB total sight deposits w.e. 6 June CHF 438.1 bn vs CHF 444.9 bn prior ECB’s Villeroy: We will

Morgan Stanley is sticking with its bullish stance on Tesla, reiterating an Overweight rating and $410 price target even as the stock comes under pressure following CEO Elon Musk’s public spat with former President Donald Trump. In a note to clients, the bank acknowledged the recent volatility but downplayed long-term risks, including concerns around EV

After a failed breakdown below the 200-hour MA earlier today that led to a snapback rallly, the EURUSD buyers have reclaimed short-term control on a break of the 100 hour MA. The question now is “Can the 100-hour MA now hold support and keep the buyers in control? See what targets are in play next

There is a real divergence of opinion shaping up between central banks and some forecasters. Today the World Bank drastically cuts its forecasts for advanced economies and warned of a stagnant global economy in H2. Meanwhile, ECB members are talking like the rate cutting cycle is nearly over and market pricing has just one more

So much for ‘drill, baby, drill’. The EIA now forecasts that US 2026 oil production will be lower than 2025. 2025 forecast of 13.42 mbpd steady 2026 cut to 13.37 mbpd from 13.49 previously 2025 demand at 20.4 mbpd vs 20.5 prior Natural gas demand steady at 91.3 bcf/day 2025 world oil demand at 103.5

USD/CAD perked up to 1.3728 in Asian trade but has since retreated back to 1.3689, slightly lower on the day. I spoke with Reuters yesterday about what I see are increasing signs of a US-Canada trade deal; something that could lead to more-sustained selling in USD/CAD and broader Canadian dollar gains. “I see an abundance

Sector Overview Technology: The tech sector is facing a downturn today, with major players such as Microsoft (MSFT) dipping by 0.66% and Oracle (ORCL) declining by 0.78%. Palantir (PLTR), however, remains slightly better with a negligible 0.18% loss. These performance numbers reflect the current cautious investor sentiment toward tech. Semiconductors: While Nvidia (NVDA) sees a

Domestic sight deposits CHF 426.3 bn vs CHF 434.3 bn prior That’s a modest drop in Swiss sight deposits, with the overall figure down to its lowest since the end of February. This follows from weeks of steadier numbers over the last few months. Let’s see what the next few weeks indicate to be sure

From Von Der Leyen: We are ramping up pressure on Russia with 18th package of sanctions Sanctions target energy and banking Proposes restrictions on Nord Stream pipeline The current price cap is $60, though its effectiveness and enforcement is spotty. Brent is currently trading at $67.26. Crude looks like it could be breaking out today,

The USDCAD has been under steady pressure since peaking near the 200-day moving average on May 13 near 1.4015. That level capped the corrective rally, and the pair has been trending lower since, with last week’s low reaching 1.36337 on Thursday. A modest rebound on Friday was followed by volatile, choppy trading on Monday. Today,

As mentioned yesterday, the negative supply side news in the past weeks, have been faded over and over again in a sign that the market has factored that in and it’s now looking through it. The thing to watch is the demand side now. We’ve been in a global easing cycle for some time now,

China vice president Han Zheng met with French President Emmanuel Macron in France – Chinese Foreign Ministry China is ready to work with EU to further expand areas of cooperation and promote new development in China-EU relations China vice president Han Zheng, at United Nations Ocean Conference: China will carry out bilateral and multilateral cooperation

Cable has completed the round trip following a soft May jobs report. Unemployment rose to the highest since 2020 and payrolls fell by 109K. That led to a quick fall to 1.3460 from 1.3535 but the pair has slowly recovered. Some of the bounce is broader US dollar weakness and the pound is still the

The talks yesterday lasted for nearly 7 hours. And Lutnick just said that the talks today are expected to go “all day”. So, we can only wait and see now. Again as mentioned, the expectation is for China to ease rare earth export controls and the US to do the same for key technology. This

Goldman Sachs revises its EUR/USD forecasts upward, citing relative equity underperformance for EUR-based investors, diminishing foreign appetite for US assets, and a confirmed slowdown in US economic activity. Key Points: USD-Based Underperformance: US equities may appear flat in USD terms, but for EUR investors, they are down 8% YTD, making EU equities relatively more attractive.

Cuts US growth forecast by 0.9 pp to 1.4%, cuts 2026 forecast by 0.4 pp Advanced economies growth seen at 1.2% vs 1.7% Eurozone seen at 0.7% vs 1.0% Emerging and developing economies seen at 3.8% vs 4.1% China forecast unchanged at 4.5%, notes that Beijing has fiscal space Current decade could see slowest growth

Bitcoin eventually broke above the key resistance zone highlighted yesterday here. From a fundamental perspective, bitcoin and stocks remain skewed to the upside due to positive growth expectations amid de-escalating trade war and global fiscal and monetary easing. There are mainly three risks for the cryptocurrency ahead: the failure of Trump’s tax bill, renewed trade

The USDCHF pair continues to respect technical boundaries, with the high price today stalling at 0.82415, just ahead of the key resistance ceiling at 0.8249—a level that capped rallies several times last week. As long as price remains below this zone, sellers retain short-term control. The pullback from today’s high has brought the pair down

Aside from GBP weakness following the soft jobs report, the FX market is largely unmoved so far today. There also isn’t anything on the economic calendar that might shake that up. There is no US economic data or Fed talk and the only notable event is a 3-year Treasury auction. Instead, eyes will be on

Eurostoxx -0.1% Germany DAX -0.2% France CAC 40 flat UK FTSE +0.4% Spain IBEX flat Italy FTSE MIB -0.2% There’s still much to play for as we await the conclusion of the US-China trade talks in London later today. US futures are also looking more tepid now, with S&P 500 futures down 0.1% on the

Expect talks to continue all day on Tuesday The talks yesterday lasted for nearly 7 hours, so I reckon we can expect more of the same today. All eyes are on the details and outcome, with expectations that we should see some easing on export controls as noted here. This article was written by Justin

Nomura expects a rebound in China’s U.S.-bound exports in June, citing a surge in container bookings and freight rates as signs of a recovery following recent trade disruptions. The logistics network, disrupted by a near trade embargo, is expected to take several weeks to normalize, contributing to a delayed but stronger pickup in exports. Risks

The dollar is keeping steadier today, holding little changed as we look towards European trading. That follows from a bit of softness yesterday, eating into the Friday gains after the US jobs report. For the new week though, market players are waiting with bated breath on US-China trade talks in London. The discussions yesterday were

The USD is little changed and mixed to start the trading day and as the 2nd day of the US/China talks get underway in London. Commerece Sec. Lutnick was on the wires saying the discussions are “going well” and were “fruitful”. Tomorrow US CPI will be a key release for the week in the US.

After the first day of talks yesterday, there are positive murmurs but again it is only from the US side. Trump said that he was only getting “good reports” from his team while Lutnick and Bessent also said that the talks went well. The meeting seems to be more focused on export controls with both

The major indices are closing the day with modest changes. A snapshot of the closing levels shows: Nasdaq rose 61.28 points or 0.31% at 19591.24 S&P rose 5.52 points or 0.09% at 6005.88 Dow fell -1.11 points or -0.00% at 42761.76 Shares of Apple fell -$2.47 or -1.21% at $201.45 after an uninspiring WWDC 2025

The partnership that started in 2023 is back for another round. B2BINPAY, the all-in-one crypto ecosystem for business, is renewing its official sponsorship of Athletic Club through 2025, staying proudly on the team’s sleeve. After a bright 2024/25 season in which Athletic Club secured fourth place in La Liga (Spain’s top national league), the club

We have another light day on the agenda as we just get a couple of low tier indicators. The most notable economic release of the day was the UK Employment report, which came out on the softer side. The focus will remain on the US-China trade talks which are expected to resume at 10am London

Will go according to the data flow Will be as agile as necessary Policy and inflation are now in a favourable zone But that doesn’t mean that the ECB is static Nothing new there be Villeroy with no rate cuts expected through the summer by the ECB at this stage. This article was written by

The sixth round of nuclear talks between the US and Iran will take place either on Friday in Oslo or on Sunday in Muscat. The heads up comes via an Axios reporter. — Seems to be a never ending cycle of talks. Oil traders will have to keep an eye on these, anything that brings

US May CPI data is due at 8.30 am US Eastern time on Wednesday, June 11, 2025. Both headline and Core are expected higher from the previous month. The Wall Street Journal’s Nick Timiraos gives a sneak peek of what analysts expect: Its not just CPI that is expected to be higher for longer: Deutsche

I’m trying to scour for headlines leading to the drop here but I’m not seeing much of anything. The only one that roughly fits the timeline is Israel striking the docks in Yemen’s port city again, but that hardly ever mattered to broader market sentiment before. USD/JPY has also dipped slightly from 144.90 to 144.60

The UK rate futures now price in 46 bps of easing for the BoE in 2025 vs 39 bps before the labour market report. The jobs report showed the largest monthly drop in payrolls since May 2020 and we’ve also got an easing in wage growth. All things that would keep the doves at the

Headline comments here: Japan fin min Kato says will conduct fiscal policy appropriately A little more now (via Reuters): Japanese Finance Minister Kato said on Tuesday that the government will conduct appropriate debt management policies while communicating closely with market participants. Tokyo may cut super-long bond issuance and explore buybacks to manage rising yields. “It’s

Bank of Japan Governor Ueda says Bank has limited room to support growth with rate cuts Australian May 2025 Business confidence +2, prior -1 China vice president Han Zheng says ready to work with EU re China-EU relations PBOC sets USD/ CNY reference rate for today at 7.1840 (vs. estimate at 7.1853) More on Japanese

Prior 4.5% Employment change 89k vs 50k expected Prior 112k Average weekly earnings +5.3% vs +5.5% 3m/y expected Prior +5.5%; revised to +5.6% Average weekly earnings (ex bonus) +5.2% vs +5.3% 3m/y expected Prior +5.6%; revised to +5.5% May payrolls change -109k Prior -33k; revised to -55k The monthly drop in payrolls is the most

Must avoid complacency over inflation outlook Must focus on keeping inflation expectations at 2% The commentary fits with their stance from the last meeting, that is to keep the flexibility open. But as things stand, there should be no rate cut to follow in July. This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

Greg had the news earlier: Commerce Sec. Lutnick: US /China talks were fruitful Bloomberg: US/China trade talks will continue tomorrow in London ICYMI: US-China trade talks will extend to a second day set to resume at 10 am London time on Tuesday Trump said he was “only getting good reports” from his team in London,

The People’s Bank of China (PBOC), China’s central bank, is responsible for setting the daily midpoint of the yuan (also known as renminbi or RMB). The PBOC follows a managed floating exchange rate system that allows the value of the yuan to fluctuate within a certain range, called a “band,” around a central reference rate,

Australia May 2025 business conditions index falls to 0 vs +2 in April (long-run average is around +6) 0 is a 4.5 year low Business confidence index rises to +2 vs -1 in April Some of the sub measures: sales index +5 in May vs. +6 in April employment index 0 vs 4 in April

People’s Bank of China USD/CNY reference rate is due around 0115 GMT. The People’s Bank of China (PBOC), China’s central bank, is responsible for setting the daily midpoint of the yuan (also known as renminbi or RMB). The PBOC follows a managed floating exchange rate system that allows the value of the yuan to fluctuate

I think Japanese Finance Minister Kato is trying to be reassuring. Says will appropriately conduct fiscal policy Need for a variety of investors to hold JGBs Need to broaden investors in Japanese Government Bonds Need to start promoting domestic ownership of JGBs Such comments are not reassuring me, not sure about anyone else though. This

ECB’s Holzmann Pause in cutting rates could last a while, if economic data worsens there could be more cuts I am moderately optimistic on what will happen with Trump and tariffs The inflation goal already in reach Robert Holzmann is Governor of Austria’s central bank and a European Central Bank Governing Council member. He was

Eyes on global developments rather than local data still. None of these below are likely to move around major FX too much. This snapshot from the ForexLive economic data calendar, access it here. The times in the left-most column are GMT. The numbers in the right-most column are the ‘prior’ (previous month/quarter as the case

Nasdaq 100 Futures (NQ): Structured Intraday Trade Setup Nasdaq Price Coming Close to the Possible Fill (Long): The Nasdaq 100 E-mini Futures (NQ) are currently trading at approximately 21,913, setting the stage for an intraday buying opportunity, contingent on precise entry conditions. Trade Entry and Risk Management: Traders eyeing today’s session can consider a potential

German DAX futures flat UK FTSE futures +0.1% The broader market mood will be eyeing the details and outcome of US-China talks in London later today of course. There was a bit of a light pullback for US futures in the past hour here. So, that’s also tempering with the mood music a little going

US military to deploy 700 Marines to LA temporarily until Nat. Guard arrives Marine being deployed are only expected to be a support role; No innocation of the Insurrection Act. The Insurrection Act is a U.S. federal law that allows the President to deploy military forces within the United States to suppress civil disorder, insurrection,

Deutsche Bank strategists caution that as expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts are pushed further out, the resulting higher borrowing costs are set to pressure U.S. companies more acutely. So far, default activity has been mostly limited to distressed debt exchanges, often with relatively high recovery rates—thanks in part to ongoing hopes for a soft

Australian Westpac Consumer Confidence for June 2025 rises 0.5% m/m to 92.6 May was down 2.2% to 92.1 This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

There are a couple to take note of on the day, as highlighted in bold. The first ones are for EUR/USD at the 1.1400 and 1.1425 levels. Similar to yesterday, that should help to lock price action more intact until we get a change in broader sentiment from US-China trade talks. The 200-hour moving average

An ICYMI from Japan on Monday. Media reports that some LDP members are reportedly considering universal cash handouts to help households cope with the rising cost of living. The context is that Japanese Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba has directed the ruling Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) to include ambitious economic targets in its upcoming election platform.

Crude oil futures settled at $65.29 on the day, up $0.71 or 1.10%. The session high reached $65.39, just above the closing level, while the low extended down to $64.22. The modest but meaningful gain reflects a rebound in bullish sentiment following recent consolidation. On the daily chart, today’s move is technically significant. The price

Japan PM Ishiba, US President Trump to hold bilateral talks on the sidelines of G7 summit in Canada. Japanese media, Kyodo, with the report. It’d be weird if they didn’t meet! Officials representing Japan the US are busily trying to work out an agreeable trade deal. Multiple countries are trying to secure trade deals with

UK consumer spending growth eased significantly in May following a strong April, with new data showing signs that rising household bills and ongoing economic uncertainty are beginning to curb shopper enthusiasm. According to the British Retail Consortium (BRC), total retail sales rose just 1.0% year-on-year in May, a steep drop from the 7.0% increase recorded

Goldman Sachs says recent market trends indicate growing investor confidence in the economic outlook, as cyclical, growth-linked sectors have been outperforming more defensive, safety-focused stocks. This rotation reflects optimism around the recovery—but also increases vulnerability if upcoming macroeconomic data disappoint. The bank noted that while this positioning leaves equities exposed to short-term setbacks, investor sentiment

National Bank of Slovakia (Národná banka Slovenska), and therefore a member of the ECB’s Governing Council, Governor Peter Kazimir. He was writing in an opinion piece. His central message is that the Bank is nearly done, if not so already, with its rate cut cycle. “As things stand now, I think we’re nearly done with,

Bank of Japan Governor Ueda is speaking in the Japanese parliament. If economy, prices come under strong downward pressure, BOJ has limited room to underpin growth with rate cuts with short-term rate still at 0.5% Underlying inflation still below 2% BOJ keeping real interest rate negative so underlying inflation achieves 2%, and keeps inflation sustainably

Bitcoin has been bid since the end of last week and its risen even further. There is no fresh news or catalyst apart from what has already been posted. The final candle in the chart looks a little scary for the bulls, good luck if you are shorting to though! This article was written by

Citigroup moved its US rate cut forecast to September from July expects three cuts this year instead of four expects 75bp of rate cuts this year instead of 100 expect a 25bp rate cut in each of September, October and December forecasts two rate cuts of 25 bps each in January and March of 2026

New Zealand Finance Minister Nicola Willis wants the Reserve Bank of New Zealand central bank to increase the frequency of its rate decisions. Info comes via Bloomberg (gated), in brief: Willis wants the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) to meet eight times a year, aligning with other major central banks and ending its long

The AUDUSD is trading up about 0.51% in trading today, making it one of the biggest movers of the day. The price is currently trading between two important swing areas on the 4-hour chart. Immediate support lies between 0.6500 and 0.6514, which has a number of swing highs or lows over the last few weeks

The talks between US and CHina officials are done for the day after 6 hours and 40 minutes, and will continue tomorrow in London. This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

Good morning, afternoon and evening all. Any charts, technical analysis, trade ideas, thoughts, views, ForexLive traders would like to share and discuss with fellow ForexLive traders, please do so: This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

US major indices close with modest changes ECB’s Holzmann says rate cut pause could last a while, data dependent US Military to deploy 700 Marines to LA temporarily until Nat. Guard arrive Commerce Sec. Lutnick: US /China talks were fruitful US crude oil futures settle at $65.29. Price is above the midpoint since 2021 Bloomberg:

The Apple Worldwide Developers Conference (WWDC) has so far lacked meaningful AI-related announcements, with only vague comments that AI features are “coming” for developers. In response, Apple’s stock is trading lower, down $3.25 (-1.61%) at $200.70. From a technical perspective, today’s decline pushes the price below both the 100- and 200-hour moving averages, which sit

The diffusion index climbed slightly in May, owing a better trend among households with an increase in retail-related activity. The trend for businesses declined on the month amid easing conditions in the manufacturing sector. Meanwhile, there were also better prospects on the employment front. The outlook index was seen at 44.8, up from 42.7 in

Prior was 0.0% Sales +0.1% vs +0.6% prior (revised to +0.8%) This is low tier data but it’s an important component in GDP and should lead to an uptick in Q2 estimates. This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

Three-year ahead expected inflation 3.0% vs 3.2% prior Five year inflation 2.6% vs 2.7% prior Home price rise seen at 3.0% vs 3.2% prior Food prices seen +5.5% — highest since Oct 2023 Outlook on job market improved in May Expectations of missing debt payments fell Full report This is a good sign for the

Reuters reports that a new Boeing 737 MAX landed in China today as the US-China trade war continues to ease. For context, Boeing halted deliveries of new planes to China in April when the US-China trade war escalated significantly. At the end of May though, the company said that deliveries would resume in June after

Credit Agricole questions whether the ECB genuinely desires a stronger euro, despite its recent outperformance. While officials have highlighted the EUR’s international role, the bank warns that continued strength could undermine growth and inflation targets. Key Points: EUR Among Top G10 Performers in Q2:The euro has been a key beneficiary of USD bearishness, supported by

The latest Atlanta Fed GDP tracker matches the June 5 reading at 3.8%. “After recent releases from the US Census Bureau and the US Bureau of Labor Statistics, a decrease in the nowcast of second-quarter real personal consumption expenditures growth from 2.6 percent to 2.5 percent was partly offset by an increase in the nowcast

Last month featured a wave of predictions about $40 oil after OPEC+ announced fresh production hikes but it hasn’t unfolded that way. For one, there is increasing optimism about global growth in light Trump’s climb-down on Liberation Day tariffs. In addition, the actual barrels that have flowed into the market have been smaller than feared.

In today’s dynamic stock market, the technology sector emerged as a clear leader driven by standout performances, while the financial sector faced headwinds. This article explores today’s market trends and identifies key players shaping the trading day. 📈 Technology Sector: Nvidia surges Nvidia (NVDA) soared by 1.84%, spearheading a broader uptick in the technology sector.

The Australian dollar is up 30 pips to 0.6521; that’s just 17 pips from last week’s high. If that level can break, it will bring AUD/USD to the highest levels since November. In focus are US-China trade talks and the implications for global growth if the world’s two-largest economies can repair their relationship. Notably, AUD/USD

Last week, USDCAD fell to its lowest level since October 2024, with the pair reaching a low of 1.3534 on Thursday before rebounding modestly on Friday. As seen on the daily chart, the decline started from around 1.4015 on May 13, following a test of the 200-day moving average (green line). The move down briefly

The WSJ reports that Trump gave US negotiators room to lift technology export controls to China, surely in exchange for China lifting rare earth export controls. “I expect this to be a short meeting with a big strong handshake,” Kevin Hassett told CNBC earlier today. The WSJ reports: The products covered by recent U.S. restrictions—never

I see clear downside risks to growth But it would be a mistake to neglect upside risks to inflation We need to keep all options open Data through the summer will indicate whether fine-tuning will be needed The comments aren’t anything new. But on a personal level despite being convicted with bribery/corruption, he is still

Canada has made the earlier reporters official: It will boost defense spending to 2% of GDP this year, meeting the NATO target. The spending will go towards new submarines, aircraft, ships, armed vehicles and artillery as well as new radar systems, PM Mark Carney said. The boost in spending comes 5 years ahead of schedule

ECB Governing Council member Joachim Nagel spoke earlier on Sunday and said: We are no longer restrictive I believe that we can now take the time to look at the situation first We now have maximum flexibility Several ‘ECB sources’ reports after last week’s decision indicated that policymakers are planning to pause at the July

USD/CNY has been sagging lately but there is no real drama here. Chinese and US officials are meeting on Monday in London. This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

US yields are moving to new lows for the day with the 2 year at 4.001% -4.2 basis points 5 year at 4.082%, -4.4 basis points 10 year at 4.479%, -3.0 basis points 30 year at 4.956%, -0.7 basis points. This week, the US treasury will auction 3, 10 and 30-year coupon issues as part

BA Eyes Bull Flag Breakout: What Traders Need to Watch Boeing (BA) is catching the eye of traders right now, and here’s why: it looks like it’s setting up for a potential bull flag breakout. After that gap-up following earnings back in April, BA has been grinding higher in a pretty clear ascending channel. Even

For now at least, the dollar is holding lower as the woes continue for the currency. USD/JPY is down 0.5% to near 144.00 after backing away from another run up to 145.00 at the end of last week. Meanwhile, AUD/USD buyers are starting to test the waters for a firmer break above the 0.6500 mark

After the visit last week, Akazawa said that they made “progress” but did not disclose what that entailed. That before reaffirming that Japan’s stance of wanting tariffs to be removed hasn’t changed whatsoever. It seems like we’re still not finding any breakthroughs just yet. Tick tock, tick tock. 31 days to go. This article was

The USDCHF saw two-way price action last week trading as low as 0.8155 – 0.8249. That is not a huge range for a trading week. Ultimately the pair closed between its 100-hour (blue) and 200-hour (green) moving averages near the middle of that range — a technical pivot zone that now serves as a key

US seeks handshake on rare earths agreement from China in London US expects export controls will be eased and rare earths will be released in volume Meeting today is to be a short one but it will bear results Anyone remembers the whole soybean fiasco back in 2019? This is going to be exactly that

Pres. Trump and Israels Netanyahu is expected to speak this morning. according to Axios. Meanwhile, in the other confrontation, earlier today the Kremlin said that Russia is still ready to keep talking to Ukraine. This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

A light week lies ahead, as is typically the case following the NFP release and Monday is also a public holiday in many European countries in observance of Whit Monday. On Tuesday, Australia will see the release of the Westpac consumer sentiment index, while in the U.K., data on the average earnings index 3m/y, claimant

Mon: Japanese GDP R (Q1), Chinese Inflation (May), Chinese Trade Balance (May), EZ Sentix Index (Jun), US Employment Trends (May) Tue: EIA STEO, UK Jobs Report (Apr), Swedish GDP (Apr), Norwegian CPI (May) Wed: ECB Wage Tracker, US CPI (May), UK Spending Review Thu: UK GDP (Apr), US PPI (May) Fri: French/Spanish Final CPI (May),

Prior month 107.57 was revised higher to 108.00. Looking at the data, the move lower takes the index to the lowest level since May 2021 (when it was at 107.40). According to the Conference Board: ETI is composed of 8 indicators: Initial Claims for Unemployment Insurance Rose to 235,000 in May (highest since July 2024).

The major US stock indices are opening mixed. The Dow is down -0.22%. The S&P index is near unchanged and the NASDAQ is up 0.17%. McDonalds -2.02% (downgrade) Salesforce -1.51% (stock is under pressure due to cautious future guidance, early-stage AI product rollouts, slowing core growth, and broader tech market sluggishness. Travelers -0.90% JPMorgan -0.76

Last week, we got the news that Saudi Arabia was pushing for OPEC+ to maintain its faster pace of oil production increases in the coming months, aiming to regain market share rather than support prices. That news and other negative supply side news in the past weeks, have been faded over and over again in

The USD is moving higher in early US trading. Yields are mixed with the 2 year down -1.7 basis points the day at 4.024%. The 10 year is unchanged at 4.509%, and the 30 yeare is up 2 basis points at 4.983%. The US and China reps are meeting in London with hopes for a

The comments Jamie Dimon on May 30 are worth re-upping. He highlighted the ‘crack’ in the bond market in covid and the additional $10 trillion in US government debt issued since then, plus enormous amounts elsewhere. “You are going to see a crack in the bond markets. It is going to happen. I am telling

I’m not sure how the world will define the ‘creator’ of ChatGPT in time but Ilya Sutskever was the chief scientist at OpenAI when it was created and was behind the deep learning breakthroughs that made GPT possible. He is also one of the most-credible voices around where it’s headed and profoundly concerned about its

Japan’s ruling party is said to be running into a bit of trouble in appealing to the upper house ahead of the upcoming election, expected in July, and is considering to offer cash handouts to all citizens without an income cap. After having scrapped initial plans for a one-time cash handout to counter Trump’s tariffs

According to Reuters: Trade talks between the US and Chinese delegations have started in London NEC Hassett said on CNBC earlier today that he expects a hand shake agreement and that the rare-earth would be released shortly thereafter. US stocks have gotten a bit of a boost in early US trading with the Dow industrial

The Globe and Mail is reporting that two senior government sources told that the Canadian Prime Minister Carney is set to announce today that his government will increase defence spending to meet NATO’s 2% target this fiscal year. This would be not only ahead of any previously announced schedule but will also be the largest

Headlines: Dollar keeps lower awaiting details on US-China trade talks in London Hassett says ‘absolutely’ expecting progress from trade talks with China today How have interest rates expectations changed after the US NFP and central bank decisions? Japan trade negotiator Akazawa said to be planning another trip to Washington this week Japan reportedly mulls buying

Japanese stock are higher to start the week in the aftermath of a strong gain on Wall Street Friday. In addition, Japanese Q1 GDP growth was revised to -0.2% from -0.7% in a decent signal for the economy. Technically, the 38,500 level has proven to be a tough nut to crack as it’s failed around

It is reported that the Japanese government is considering to buy back some super-long bonds it issued at low interest rates. And the move here will be one that acts alongside their previous consideration to trim issuance of super-long bonds amid the recent sharp rise in yields. The MOF is trying to work with the

Fed: 46 bps (99% probability of no change at the upcoming meeting) ECB: 25 bps (87% probability of no change at the upcoming meeting) BoE: 40 bps (94% probability of no change at the upcoming meeting) BoC: 27 bps (78% probability of no change at the upcoming meeting) RBA: 71 bps (77% probability of rate

German DAX futures -0.1% UK FTSE futures +0.1% This follows from the continued gains last week, with the optimism also flowing through in Wall Street late Friday. All eyes are on US-China trade talks in London today but there’s no details yet on what time the meeting will begin. The fact China is offering up

Fundamental Overview The USD erased the gains from the better than expected NFP report where hot wage growth figures triggered a slightly more hawkish repricing in interest rates expectations and sent Treasury yields higher. That wasn’t enough to lift the greenback though and traders will now look forward to the next key events including the

Japan has experienced low interest rates for a very long period So, some quarters of the public don’t know what it is like for interest rates to rise When interest rates rise, government’s debt-financing costs will increase; weigh on spending Government must ensure public, market trust in Japan’s finances is maintained It’s more so a

Prior was +1.1% Q3 was -1.2% Volumes for dairy and meat products rose 4.1%. This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

The USD is lower vs the three major currency pairs – the EURUSD, USDJPY and GBPUSD with the USDJPY the biggest mover with the USDJPY falling 0.39%. The USD is down -0.30% vs the GBP and -0.19% vs the EUR to kickstart the US session. Technically, both the EURUSD and the GBPUSD moved back above

The spokesperson for China’s foreign affairs ministry, Lin Jian, is out with his regular press conference today. But when asked about the US-China meeting in London, he conveniently avoids to answer that (h/t @ MrMBrown). It certainly keeps things interesting and markets guessing as we wait on what will happen later in the day. This

There will be bank holidays in the likes of Germany, France, and Switzerland in observance of Whit Monday. However, the Xetra and Euronext will all still be open for trading. So, the action doesn’t stop as we get into the second week of June. The dollar is a touch weaker with risk sentiment looking more

The FX market is beginning to take shape this week and the defining move so far is selling the US dollar. We have seen that before on worsening trade but I don’t see how that’s the case as Trump has been touting a US-China deal lately. USD/JPY is down 40 pips to 144.45 and that’s

Eurostoxx -0.2% Germany DAX -0.3% France CAC 40 -0.1% UK FTSE flat Spain IBEX +0.1% Italy FTSE MIB -0.2% There’s still no word about the supposed US-China trade talks that is expected to take place in London later today. Markets will stay on edge until we get to that, so that sets the tone to

Bitcoin got under some selling pressure last week that culminated in a quick selloff on Thursday. The catalyst for the selloff was the spat between Musk and Trump that affected also other risk assets like stocks. The underlying reason was probably the threat of blocking the Trump’s tax bill in some way which would have

That’s a bold call with markets only pricing in ~46 bps of rate cuts by year-end with no rate cuts expected through the summer at least at this stage. Their latest view above is predicated on the outlook following the US jobs report on Friday. Subsequently, Citigroup expects the Fed to cut further in January

The Hong Kong Hang Sent is trading up 1.4% today in a strong response to positive indications this week on US-China trade. Optimism is as high as it’s been since Trump’s election as top trade deputies will meet in London starting on Monday. There are indications that talks will go all week and Trump himself

The report cites a letter by the American Chamber of Commerce in Hanoi, speaking on behalf of Vietnamese subsidiaries of big investors such as Apple, in saying that: “Vietnam has emerged as a valued partner of the US in the context of diversifying supply chains. We urge the US government to consider this deficit trend

Prior was +96.1B USD denominated exports +4.8% y/y vs +5.0% exp USD denominated imports -3.4% y/y s -0.9% exp Yuan-denominated exports +6.3% Yuan-denominated imports -2.1% Trade surplus with US at $18.01B vs +$20.46 in April The trade war curbed imports but not in some kind of game-changing way, which is somewhat surprising. It may highlight

Q4 was +2.4% The preliminary Q1 reading was -0.7% Q/Q GDP (not annualized) 0.0% vs -0.2% prelim (+0.6% in Q4) Private consumption GDP +0.1% vs 0.0% prelim Capex +1.1% y/y vs +1.4% prelim This is a welcome surprise and should further tilt the Bank of Japan towards hiking rates, though the yen reaction has been

There’s nothing on the agenda today in terms of data releases. The only highlight is the US-China trade talks in London. Trump on Friday said that “the meeting should go very well” so the expectations are skewed to the upside with potentially lower reciprocal tariffs being announced as good faith for continuation of negotiations.Therefore, keep

Prior was +3678 billion Seasonally adjusted +2306B vs +2723B prior Goods -32.7B vs +516B prior You can see the effects of the trade war in this data as there was a front-run in March that reversed after the April 2 Liberation Day. This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

St Louis Fed President Alberto Musalem spoke to the press on the weekend and was asked about the impact of tariffs on inflation. He said that it was 50/50 on whether it would cause sustained inflation or inflation for a quarter or two. Critically, he also said there would be ongoing uncertainty around tariffs “right

Tokyo and Beijing are just waking up but it will be a lively start to the week for traders in both. Here is a look at Asia-Pac calendar – in order (all times GMT) 22:45 – New Zealand Q1 manufacturing sales 23:50 – Japan data dump: May bank lending, Apr current-account balances and the final

The FX market is still asleep to start the week with moves so far at less than 10 pips but gold is sending some signals. It’s down $11 to $3298 after initially rising $8. This is the third day of gold selling and it comes after signs of US-China trade talks last week were later

There are just a couple to take note of on the day, as highlighted in bold. The two being for EUR/USD at the 1.1400 and 1.1425 levels. The expiries should help to keep price action more in check during the session ahead, with traders keenly eyeing US-China trade talks as the next action point. The

China May CPI -0.1% y/y vs -0.2% expected China May trade balance $103.2B vs 101.3B expected Japan Q1 GDP revised -0.2% vs -0.7% expected Japan April current account +2258.0B vs 2563.9B expected New Zealand Q1 manufacturing sales +2.4% vs +1.1% prior ECB’s Nagel: I believe that we can now take the time to look at

Prior was -0.1% PPI -3.3% vs -3.2% exp CPI -0.2% m/m vs -0.2% exp This is too much deflation and it’s been going on for too long. This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

The new week is underway and it’s looking like a relatively tame start. Eamonn is off today because it’s the King’s Birthday holiday in Australia so I will be your guide. So far the market moves are minimal but note that bitcoin rose about $2000 on the weekend to $106,400 in a positive sign for

“We are maintaining a short USD/JPY trade idea… we are not convinced that the move higher in US yields and USD/JPY will be sustained. We expect to see evidence emerge that the US economy is being more negatively impacted by trade disruption and heightened policy uncertainty weighing down on USD/JPY,” MUFG notes. For bank trade

US April non-farm payrolls +139K vs +130K expected Canada May employment change +8.8k vs -12.5k expected Top US and China trade officials will meet Monday in London China issues rare earth licenses to suppliers of top 3 US automakers Walmart says the consumer is doing fine Fed’s Harker is doing the farewell rounds: Says FOMC

Comments from Bank of England rate-setter Megan Greene: Most of the near-term hump in inflation is due to one-off factors We expect inflation to continue to come down to target over medium term Our view is that we can look through it but of course that’s a big risk There is a risk people won’t

CIBC economists dug through today’s Canadian employment report and see a jobs market that continuing to gradually weaken. The country added 8.8K compares compared to a -12.5K consensus but unemployment ticked up to 7.0% from 6.9%. “Trade sensitive areas such as manufacturing and transportation & warehousing unsurprisingly showed weakness, but for now that is being

It’s tragic that we’ve gone backwards in aviation in some ways in the past 30 years. The Concorde was a symbol of progress and it would be wonderful if I live to see the return of supersonic commercial aviation. The fastest trip the plane did from New York to London was 2 hours and 52

Nomura is outlining a bearish scenario for USD/JPY in a Friday note. They say the pair could fall to 136 from 144.92 currently by the end of September as Japanese investors repatriate and Washington leans on Tokyo to strengthen the yen. Another factor is a hawkish Bank of Japan and rising local yields, which could

No one has better data than Walmart and the CFO is just out saying that consumer spending has been ‘largely consistent’. I wouldn’t take it as gospel because Target threw up some red flags in earnings and Lululemon did today as well but I certainly wouldn’t bet against WMT. This article was written by Adam

Things are happening quickly on the China front and the US is sending its top-three trade officials in a push to move things along. Trump announces: I am pleased to announce that Secretary of the Treasury Scott Bessent, Secretary of Commerce Howard Lutnick, and United States Trade Representative, Ambassador Jamieson Greer, will be meeting in

I’m open to two vastly diverging views here: 1) Debt and deficits don’t matter because of AI The view is that AI will make people so productive and efficient that government debt won’t be a problem. It’s a positive take on progress in a world that’s now seen many generations of positive impacts from technology.

Nothing on monetary policy from Bowman, who is in charge of bank supervision now. This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

The week began with OPEC adding barrels once again and there was also a mid-week report that Saudi Arabia wanted to keep adding 411K bpd in August and potentially September. Despite all that, oil is having a great week, up 6.5%. Perhaps some of that was relief that OPEC didn’t add even more barrels on

Markets should not expect cuts at every meeting. It may well be the case that we pause in July. Inflation seen below 2% for some time, we have to remain vigilant. Further cuts would be fine-tuning unless we shift out of baseline scenario. Now that the ECB decision is out of the way, we have

Philly Fed President Patrick Harker was a model central banker. He never made waves, was thoughtful and always professional. He’s retiring at month-end and is out with some comments: It’s still possible the Fed can cut later this year Uncertainties make it very hard to divine monetary policy outlook Worries that the quality of economic

Prior +7.4k Unemployment rate 7.0% vs 7.0% expected Prior 6.9% Full-time employment +57.7k vs +31.5k prior Part-time employment -48.8k vs -24.2k prior Participation rate 65.3% vs 65.3% prior Average hourly wages 3.5% vs +3.5% prior This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at www.forexlive.com.

Today’s US jobs report calmed nerves but there are still some dark clouds on the horizon. Business Insider today reports that Amazon has frozen its hiring budget for its main retail business, citing internal emails. The changes only apply to corporate employees, not those working in warehouses or the cloud computing division. However it does

Lowering rates at a time of high savings and low investments has no effect except a monetary effect. I didn’t affect the outcome of the Governing Council meeting with my lone vote. We are currently expansive in our monetary policy. Lagarde said we are at the end of the cycle, I wanted to discuss whether

No plan for Trump call with Musk This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at www.forexlive.com.

Tariff negotiations between the U.S. and Japan are being complicated by the involvement of three senior American officials who hold conflicting views on trade, according to sources close to the talks. The differing approaches of Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick, and U.S. Trade Representative Jamiesol Greer have created confusion and made it

This is the first hint at a timeline for China-US talks, and it’s a rapid one. That’s a good sign that both sides are aiming for some kind of deal before long. But let’s hope that Navarro isn’t invited because that’s not the guy to make a deal with China. This article was written by

China’s central bank unexpectedly injected 1 trillion yuan (around $139 billion) in three-month cash via outright reverse repos on Friday, a break from its usual practice of conducting such operations at the end of the month. The move appears aimed at easing mounting concerns over interbank liquidity, as borrowing costs rise and financial stress builds

Did anyone see the news flash across the screens late in the day in China on Thursday? All there was is that the People’s Bank of China is holding a ‘work meeting’. I saw nothing further despite digging around China sites etc. A “work meeting” held by the People’s Bank of China (PBOC) refers to

Tech and Automotive Surge: Examining Today’s Bullish Market Momentum With a buoyant atmosphere prevailing in the market today, significant advances have been noted in the technology and automotive sectors. The heatmap paints a predominantly green landscape, showcasing positive sentiment and momentum in these industries. 📈 Tech Sector Outperforms: Navigating the Uptrend Microsoft (MSFT) and Oracle

Bank of America remains broadly constructive on the euro, particularly versus the USD, CHF, and JPY, as geopolitical events and fiscal developments in Europe provide tailwinds. While the EUR may look overvalued by traditional models, structural buyers and asymmetric USD risks suggest further gains are possible into the NATO and EU summits later this month.

Shares of Lululemon are down 18% today after the company cut guidance and cited a ‘dynamic macroenvironment’ for the decline. The stock market more broadly certainly isn’t worried about that call with the S&P 500 up 1.2% today. This isn’t a Fed call as the market has trimmed about 8 bps of easing for the

Prior was +177K (revised to +147K) Two-month net revision: versus -58K prior Unemployment rate: 4.2% versus 4.2% expected Prior unemployment rate: 4.2% Unrounded unemployment rate: versus 4.1872% prior Participation rate: 62.4% versus 62.6% prior Average hourly earnings (m/m): +0.4% versus +0.3% expected and +0.2% prior Average hourly earnings (y/y): +3.9% versus +3.7% expected and +3.8%

ThinkMarkets, a global leader in online CFD trading, continues to strengthen its position in the industry by enhancing its proprietary platform with the upcoming launch of Traders’ Gym, its exclusive backtesting tool, on the ThinkTrader mobile app for iOS and Android this Monday. This means traders will soon be able to backtest their trading strategies

If Nasdaq was a mascot This is what it may have looked like now, and what it would say… Not a time to short this market yet. This is an opinion that bulls are in control and where they’re headed. This is not financial advice. Do your own research. As always, any investment or trade

The S&P 500 is above 6000 for the first time since February. I think there are economic risks out there but the price action right now is telling. There is a strong inclination to buy the dip and a belief in a Trump put. Call it at TACO trade or a belief that trade deals

Happy jobs Friday. I’m tempted to dismiss this report as unimportant because the Fed is in a casual wait-and-see stance but a tipping point in an economy is like Hemingway’s description of bankruptcy: Suddenly and then all at once. Lululemon late yesterday cut guidance citing a ‘dynamic macroenvironment’ and shares are down 23% premarket. There

Closing changes on the day: STOXX 600 +0.3% German DAX, -0.1% France’s CAC +0.1% UK’s FTSE 100 +0.1% Spain’s IBEX +0.25% Italy’s FTSE MIB +0.5% On the week: STOXX 600 +0.9 German DAX, +1.2% France’s CAC +0.7% UK’s FTSE 100 +0.7% Spain’s IBEX +0.6% Italy’s FTSE MIB +1.2% There weren’t any fireworks in European stock

Merz spoke with CNN earlier: German Chancellor Merz told CNN that Europe is seeking greater independence from China Speaking with Fox now: US tariffs are threatening our economy We are looking for ways to bring them down Merz not the only one frustrated with tariffs: This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

Prior -0.1% Retail sales y/y +2.3% vs +1.3% expected Prior +1.5% Retail sales remain on a strong trend. The increased fiscal spending and ECB rate cuts should keep the momentum going. This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at www.forexlive.com.

EUR/USD 1.1500 (EUR 3.19bn) 1.1400 (EUR 2.38bn) 1.1300 (EUR 1.28bn) USD/JPY 146.00 (US$ 1.35bn) 142.00 (US$ 2.08bn) GBP/USD 1.3600 (GBP 413mn) 1.3410 (GBP 896mn) USD/CHF 0.8300 (CHF 415mn) 0.8250 (CHF 470mn) USD/CAD 1.4040 (US$ 1.11bn) 1.3600 (US$ 1.13bn) AUD/USD 0.6300 (AUD 1.64bn) NZD/USD 0.5590 (NZD 766mn) For more information on how to use this data,

Deutche Bank is out with a note highlighting that the focus on jobs might be the wrong one. The big change in the US economy is in immigration, which has cratered this year — falling more than 90% from the January 2022 to June 2024 average. They note that this is equivalent to an annual

Adam took a look at the data tto write his NFP preview. Check it out here: May non-farm payrolls preview by the numbers: What does the data say This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

ECB has achieved a soft landing. The best thing for the ECB is to wait and see. The rate cutting is nearly done. Given uncertainty, you can never say it is done. ECB may cut if the economy weakens and inflation falls. There are downside risks to growth. The ECB is quite confident on forecasts.

In the European session, we’ll just have a few low tier releases like industrial production for Germany and France and the Eurozone retail sales. None of the data will impact the current market pricing. In the American session, we have the Canadian Employment data and the US NFP report. The Canadian Employment data is expected

NBC with the report citing Republican senators: Republicans shouldn’t back away from looking at potential changes to Medicare exploring ideas to slash “waste, fraud and abuse” in Medicare, several senators they’re open to looking at other programs, too Sen. Kevin Cramer, R-N.D., said they shouldn’t be afraid of cutting waste in Medicare “Why don’t we

It’s looking like a strong rebound for US stock markets after yesterday’s late-day selloff. Futures levels: S&P 500 +50 points or +1.0% Nasdaq futures +0.9% DJIA futures +0.7% Russell 2000 futures +1.5% That’s a nice rebound. In focus will be Tesla shares after yesterday’s plunge: they’re up 3.8% premarket. Another mover is Lululemon, down 18%

Japan data – April household spending, a substantial miss both y/y and m/m: -0.1% y/y expected +1.4%, prior +2.1% -1.8% m/m expected -0.8%, prior +0.4% Household spending is not benefitting from real wages continuing to fall in Japan. Pay is failing to keep up with inflation, which has been marked by soaring food prices: Japan

JP Morgan update their forecast for the European Central Bank: expects ECB to deliver the next cut in September JP M were previously projecting the next cut in July July 24 the next policy meeting: This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

Via Politico: Trump says on Musk “It’s going very well, never done better.” “Oh it’s okay,” Trump said in a brief telephone call when asked about very public breakup with Musk White House aides scheduled a call Friday with billionaire CEO of Tesla to broker a peace Earlier Musk was making reconciliation noises too: Musk

Australian PM Albanese Will not loosen any rules regarding biosecurity during trade talks with United States Albanese is fresh off a landslide election win. He won’t be chickening out. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

The news that Japan is poised to allow Real Estate Investment Trusts (REITs) to include data center equipment in their portfolios is not new. It was flagged earlier. NTT DATA announced plans for a domestic data center-specialized REIT around this time in 2024. It was set tp launch by March 2026. The REIT inclusion would

The ranges of estimates are important in terms of market reaction because when the actual data deviates from the expectations, it creates a surprise effect. Another important input in market’s reaction is the distribution of forecasts. In fact, although we can have a range of estimates, most forecasts might be clustered on the upper bound

We have won battle against inflation in Europe. We have tools to react if there’s deflation. We will not again see the low rates we saw a few years ago. They are really making victory laps now at the ECB. This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at www.forexlive.com.

Prior +0.4% House prices y/y +2.5% vs +2.9% expected Prior +3.2% Amanda Bryden, Head of Mortgages at Halifax said: “These small monthly movements point to a housing market that has remained largely stable, with average prices down by just -0.2% since the start of the year. The market appears to have absorbed the temporary surge

more to come This snapshot from the ForexLive economic data calendar, access it here. The times in the left-most column are GMT. The numbers in the right-most column are the ‘prior’ (previous month/quarter as the case may be) result. The number in the column next to that, where there is a number, is the consensus

B2PRIME Group, a global financial services provider for institutional and professional clients, has announced the appointment of Stuart Brock as its new Institutional Business Development Manager. He joins the company from oneZero Financial Systems, where he most recently served as Head of Institutional Sales. Stuart brings to B2PRIME more than 15 years of experience in

What is the distribution of forecasts for the US NFP? ECB’s Centeno: We successfully overcome inflationary process BoJ is said to consider smaller reductions to its bond buying Eurozone Q1 final GDP +0.6% vs +0.4% q/q second estimate Eurozone April retail sales +0.1% vs +0.1% m/m expected ECB’s Rehn: Decision-making at each meeting remains key

U.S. Treasury says semi-annual currency report found no major U.S. trading partners manipulated currency to gain unfair trade advantage in four quarters through December 2024 No major trading partners met all three criteria for enhanced analysis during review period Monitoring list of trading partners whose currency practices ‘merit close attention’ includes China, Japan, South Korea,

Agree with Lagarde that cycle almost finished. We can be happy with inflation where it is. Hard to say what’s coming next on rates. We are facing more than average uncertainty. As a reminder, the ECB cut rates by 25 bps yesterday as expected revising growth and inflation lower. The market overreacted a bit when

We successfully overcome inflationary process. Tariffs imposed by US are deflationary. Monetary policy is in a cycle of reducing rates. All data indicate cycle will continue in 2025. Euro Area inflation rate will drop further and approach 1% by the beginning of 2026. I don’t know at what pace rate moves will happen. At this

Decision-making at each meeting remains key. Not committing to any rate path. ECB keeps full freedom of movement at all coming meetings. The ECB will now be much more data-dependent as they are near the lower bound of their estimated neutral range (1.75%-2.25%) This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at www.forexlive.com.

Japan finance minister Kato says monetary policy up to BOJ, when asked about US Treasury report on Japan Earlier: US Treasury says no other country manipulates their own currency In the report the U.S. Treasury Department urged the Bank of Japan to stay the course on monetary tightening, arguing that doing so would help correct

Prior +0.2% GDP Q1 y/y +1.5% vs +1.2% second estimate Prior +1.2% The Q1 GDP got revised higher at every release. Household final consumption expenditure increased by 0.2% both in the euro area and in the EU. Government final consumption expenditure remained stable in the euro area and decreased by 0.1% in the EU. Gross

Ethereum buyTheDip Alert: Entry Levels and Bullish Targets Ethereum traders and investors were presented with an excellent buy-the-dip opportunity approximately seven to eight hours ago, as highlighted in our exclusive alert to the Investing Live Crypto Telegram group. This alert identified a prime entry range for Ethereum (ETH) between $2,436 and $2,440. Previous Successful Call

BoJ is said to consider smaller reductions to its bond buying. BoJ debate centers on quarterly cuts of 200b to 400b yen. BoJ’s new bond-buying plan would last to March 2027. This should be yen negative given that the BoJ would buy more bonds than previously expected under their bond tapering plan. This article was

Prior +0.2% (revised to +0.1%) This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at www.forexlive.com.

TSLA Technical Analysis: Crucial Support Zone Tested After Sharp Decline Tesla (TSLA) shares have seen substantial volatility recently, experiencing a sharp decline, notably falling over 14% on Thursday alone. This significant drop erased approximately $152 billion from the company’s market capitalization, marking an intense sell-off session highlighted by record-setting options trading volume. Key Levels and

Ok, so this humorously depicts President Xi Jinping comfortably enjoying popcorn, observing a heated online feud between Elon Musk and Donald Trump. But what can investors and traders do now? Investors and traders, here are 3 place to start S&P 500 technical analysis after Elon and Trump’s childish keyboard war Trump says on Musk “It’s

Japan is softening its stance on the 25% U.S. auto tariff, according to the Asahi newspaper, and is no longer pushing for a full repeal. Instead, Tokyo is proposing a more flexible framework that would see tariff rates reduced depending on how much a country contributes to the U.S. auto sector. The proposal, reportedly put

Interest rates are now at neutral. Important to keep full flexibility. The ECB estimated that the neutral interest rate range for the Eurozone is between 1.75% and 2.25%. This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at www.forexlive.com.

To receive timely updates and exclusive alerts, join our free Telegram channel: S&P 500 Technical Analysis: Elon vs. Trump Feud Won’t Shake Bulls Just Yet Despite the recent headline-grabbing feud between Elon Musk and Donald Trump, the S&P 500 E-mini futures have held their ground firmly. In a market where sentiment often shifts rapidly due

Trump says call with Xi ‘reached a very positive conclusion’ Trump says call with Xi went ‘very well’ Xi: China and US agree to start a new round of trade talks The Trump-Musk divorce is official Elon takes off the gloves: Says Trump is in the Epstein files US initial jobless claims 247K vs 235K

Musk in a reply tweet to Ackman agrees stronger together: Tensions dialing back a little. US equity index futures bounced upon the reopening of Globex for US evening trade. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

Market expectations are building that Japan’s Ministry of Finance (MOF) may soon adjust its government bond issuance strategy—possibly as early as July—by shifting toward shorter maturities and cutting back on longer-term debt. The move is being considered as yields remain elevated and investor appetite for longer-dated bonds weakens, highlighted by Thursday’s 30-year auction, which saw

German Chancellor Friedrich Merz has signalled a strategic shift in Europe’s economic approach, telling CNN that the continent is actively seeking greater independence from China. The remarks reflect growing concerns in Berlin and Brussels over the risks of overreliance on Chinese supply chains, particularly in critical sectors like technology and clean energy. Merz stressed that

Canada PM Carney spoke with the Premier of China, Li Qiang Carney and China’s Li exchanged views on bilateral relations, including the importance of engagement, and agreed to regularize channels of communication between Canada and China Carney and China’s Li also discussed trade between the two countries Carney and China’s Li committed their governments to

JP Morgan expects ECB to deliver the next cut in September vs prior forecast of July Trump says on Musk “It’s going very well, never done better.” European Central Bank President Lagarde is speaking again on Friday Canada PM Carney spoke with the Premier of China, Li Qiang Musk pulling back in his feud with

Prior +3.0% (revised to +2.3%) Industrial production y/y +1.8% vs -0.4% prior The less volatile three-month on three-month comparison showed that production was 0.5% higher in the period from February 2025 to April 2025 than in the previous three months. This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at www.forexlive.com.

Goldman Sachs expects headline 125k in payroll growth for May jobless rate 4.2% wage growth 0.3% m/m GS say federal government hiring may drag on headline numbers due to workforce cuts – Earlier: May non-farm payrolls preview by the numbers: What does the data say – The data is due at 0830 US Eastern time:

The People’s Bank of China (PBOC), China’s central bank, is responsible for setting the daily midpoint of the yuan (also known as renminbi or RMB). The PBOC follows a managed floating exchange rate system that allows the value of the yuan to fluctuate within a certain range, called a “band,” around a central reference rate,

Good morning, afternoon and evening all. Any charts, technical analysis, trade ideas, thoughts, views, ForexLive traders would like to share and discuss with fellow ForexLive traders, please do so: This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

Prior 108.1 (revised to 107.6) Coincident index 115.5 vs 115.9 prior (revised to 115.8) The drop shouldn’t be surprising given the trade uncertainty. The BoJ continues to focus on trade negotiations and the evolution of inflation before considering another rate hike. This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at www.forexlive.com.

0830 GMT/0430 US Eastern time: Video message by ECB President Christine Lagarde at an event marking the 75th anniversary of the International Confederation of Popular Banks (CIBP) in Marseille, France After we heard from Lagarde on Thursday this doesn’t promise much for traders. ECB cuts key rates by 25 bps in June monetary policy decision,

Iran has reportedly placed large orders for ballistic missile components from China, according to sources familiar with the matter, as it works to strengthen its military capabilities while engaging in nuclear discussions with the U.S. The shipments, which include tons of ammonium perchlorate—a key propellant for missiles—are expected to arrive in Iran in the coming

Consensus estimate +130K Estimate range +75K to +190K April was +228K Private consensus +120K versus +167K prior Unemployment rate consensus estimate 4.2% Prior unrounded unemployment rate 4.1872% versus 4.1519% prior Prior participation rate 62.6% Prior underemployment U6 7.8% Avg hourly earnings y/y exp +3.7% versus +3.8% prior Avg hourly earnings m/m exp +0.3% versus +0.2%

Elon Musk says won’t decommission Dragon spacecraft SpaceX’s Dragon spacecraft serves as the company’s main vehicle for transporting both astronauts and cargo into orbit. Backed by multibillion-dollar contracts with NASA, SpaceX regularly carries NASA crews to and from the International Space Station. These missions are key to helping the agency sustain a continuous human presence

Musk-Trump feud is bringing forth some fresh information and opinions. Trump named in the Epstein files: And now Trump’s tariffs will bring on a US recession. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

People’s Bank of China USD/CNY reference rate is due around 0115 GMT. The People’s Bank of China (PBOC), China’s central bank, is responsible for setting the daily midpoint of the yuan (also known as renminbi or RMB). The PBOC follows a managed floating exchange rate system that allows the value of the yuan to fluctuate

Elon is going nuclear with the Epstein accusation. This divorce just got really nasty. Trump is definitely taking away those subsidies now. The whole market is rolling over as the President of the United States and the world’s richest man fight. Tesla shares are now down 16.5%. This article was written by Adam Button at

With Tesla shares down 12% today, Elon Musk has lost $15.8 billion. Both of them are messaging on their respective social networks: Elon was “wearing thin,” I asked him to leave, I took away his EV Mandate that forced everyone to buy Electric Cars that nobody else wanted (that he knew for months I was

The US ambassador to Canada said Trump and Carney are trying to iron out a framework for a trade and security agreement, according to ambassador Peter Hoekstra This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

The range has been fairly tight in US stock markets today but some sellers just took a leg lower after hitting stops below the earlier double bottom. At 0.4%, the move today isn’t large but it’s disappointing after some seeming progress between the US and China. I warned about a ‘sell the fact’ trade on

Beijing has confirmed that the phone call with Trump is ongoing in a brief statement: So far, we haven’t heard from Trump, who is likely to be the first person to send a message when it’s over. Keep an eye on Truth Social. The Australian and New Zealand dollars are the top performing currencies today,

Prior 46.6 The improvement in overall activity comes as both output and new orders fell at the slowest pace since January. However, employment conditions continue to stutter with job shedding accelerating by its fastest since August 2020. S&P Global notes that: “The construction sector continued to adjust to weaker order books in May, which led

There are quite a number to take note of on the day, as highlighted in bold. The first ones are for EUR/USD at the 1.1380, 1.1400, and 1.1425 levels. The large ones in particular hold closer to the figure level and are likely to hold price action in and around the 1.1400 mark. That especially

US-based employers announced 93,816 job cuts in May, down 12% from 105,441 cuts in April. That figure is also up 47% from the 63,816 job cuts announced in the same month last year. Challenger notes that “tariffs, funding cuts, consumer spending, and overall economic pessimism are putting intense pressure on companies’ workforces.” This article was

The 25 bps rate cut today will bring the deposit rate back to 2.00%. And that will fit in between the estimate for the neutral rate by the central bank, which is roughly around 1.75% to 2.25%. That said, one can reasonably expect Lagarde & co. to continue to not put much emphasis that this

The smoke around a new Canada-US trade deal continues to rise. This was out earlier today but in case you missed it, the Toronto Sun reporter who initially reported a potential deal at the start of the week now has more details, citing ‘multiple sources’. He continues to suggest that the hope is to get

Extent of tariff-driven price push won’t be evident for some time Expects tariffs to start to show through prices in coming months Policy needs to be nimble Optimistic that economic activity can be sustained From Harker (who is retiring this month) Fed must wait and see on next policy steps Entirely possible Fed may face

Some argued for a pause beyond July This is the second sources line with similar reporting, though this is more granular. The market is pricing in a 20% chacne of July cut, so this is no surprise. The baseline for the ECB is now ‘one and done’ with a cut priced for Oct or Dec.

Gold looked like it might break out earlier today on strong European and Asia buying but the selling has been steady in US trade and picked up in the last two hours. The reversal coincides with a turn higher in US Treasury yields and optimism about US-China trade following a call between Trump and Xi.

Inflation will be the first order effect, the other effects will be down the road Haven’t seen the full extent of impact of tariffs on prices This has a hawkish tilt. This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

Goldman Sachs expects 125k in payroll growth for May—in line with consensus—alongside a steady unemployment rate of 4.2%. Wage growth is projected at 0.3% m/m, but federal government hiring may drag on headline numbers due to workforce cuts amid tariff-related uncertainty. Key Points: Nonfarm payrolls: +125k, with solid gains indicated by big data tracking tools.

Mutual respect, peaceful coexistence, cooperation between US and China is in the interests of both parties and conducive to world development and peace Just a point to note that the US-China Track II dialogue is an informal set of discussions between the two countries. So, this is the meeting that Han Zheng is coming from.

It’s still very early in the quarterly cycle so the numbers are volatile. The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the second quarter of 2025 is 3.8 percent on June 5, down from 4.6 percent on June 2. After recent releases from the US Census Bureau, the US Bureau

Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari: labour market is showing some signs of slowing down inflation rate still not back to 2% target there is persistent uncertainty over the economy Fed must stay in wait and see mode to assess how economy responds to the uncertainty the bond and equity markets are sending conflicting signals This

The market was only priced for a 20% chance of a cut in July so this isn’t a surprise. The market is only pricing in one further cut from the ECB in this cycle. Update: Goldman Sachs now following the guidance, shifts its rate-cut call to Sept from July. This article was written by Adam

Fundamental Overview Gold got stuck in a bit of a consolidation this week after the Monday’s rally. Some renewed trade tensions gave the precious metal a boost in the final part of last week but since then things have calmed down. In the bigger picture, gold remains in an uptrend as real yields will likely

HFM (a leading global financial broker under the HFM Group) is setting a new standard in trader education with its in-depth Market Analysis platform and dynamic live market insights via social media. Through a strategic blend of expert analysis and real-time commentary, HFM empowers its global client base to navigate the markets with confidence and

Japan’s chief trade negotiator Akazawa says there is no change in Japan’s stance and they continue to want a full reprieve from US tariffs. Now there is somewhat of an incentive to take a hawkish public stance here as Japan could be headed for a snap election at any point as Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba

People’s Bank of China USD/CNY reference rate is due around 0115 GMT. The People’s Bank of China (PBOC), China’s central bank, is responsible for setting the daily midpoint of the yuan (also known as renminbi or RMB). The PBOC follows a managed floating exchange rate system that allows the value of the yuan to fluctuate

Front-loading of imports makes judging economic activity difficult Expects reversal of import surge in the coming months to signal larger price increases Non-traditional data says might be seeing some moderation in growth but not a significant slowdown Core services inflation still above pre-pandemic rate, progress on core goods has reversed Warn notices of layoffs have

The US and China should increase cooperation and trade The US and China should reduce misunderstandings Told Trump that China is implementing the Geneva agreement Trump is welcome to visit China again It’s important to dispel disruptions to China-US relations China and US agree to start a new round of trade talks Consensus has been

US trade policy remains one of the top three sources of uncertainty for UK businesses But the share of firms seeing that to be the case is now down to 12% (previously 22%) 70% of UK firms reported that changes to US trade policy would have no material impact on their business Firms’ expectations for

Shares of Tesla are down 4.5% today as the fallout from Trump and Musk continues: Would have won Pennsylvania without Musk He disappointed He hasn’t said bad about me but that will be next I don’t know if we’ll have a great relationship anymore We said no to Musk’s NASA choice “Elon and I had

Trump and Xi held a phone call today, according to Xinhua. That should be good news as the topics on calls like this are almost always pre-cleared and scripted. It’s not exactly clear when the call was held or if it’s ongoing now but expect Trump to write about it on Truth Social soon after

📈 Technology Sector: Microsoft’s steady climb lifts spirits Today’s market spotlight is on the technology sector, which shows resilience amidst market fluctuations. Microsoft (MSFT) edges up by 0.42%, underlining a generally optimistic sentiment within the software infrastructure domain. Other players, like Oracle (ORCL) with a significant rise of 1.37%, further emphasize the healthy momentum within

Japan is to present a cooperation package to the US on building a supply network for rare earths. China has restricted the export of seven rare earth elements to the US and the Japanese government is aiming to get concessions from the US with this joint “countermeasure package”. This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta

Call resulted in a very positive conclusion for both countries There should no longer be any questions respecting the complexity of Rare Earth products Our respective teams will be meeting shortly Conversation was focused on trade, no Ukraine or Iran So they’ve scheduled trade talks, which at least means there is some kind of basis

Positive comment, though not surprising. Trump is starting a meeting with Merz: We will have a great relationships with Germany It’s sad what’s happening with Russia-Ukraine Trade talks with China have never been off track Straightened out complexity Straigthened out rare earths In good shape with China on a trade deal I’ll be going to

0745 GMT / 0345 US Eastern time Bank of England policymaker Megan Greene speaks about ‘economics with nontraditional data and analytical tools’ at the ECONDAT conference at King’s College London Bank of England This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

Prior was -140.5B (revised to -138.3B) Goods trade balance -86.97B vs -162.2B prior (prelim was -87.62B) Prior goods trade balance was -147.85B Exports +3.0% vs +0.2% prior Imports -16.3% vs +4.4% prior March was the largest-ever trade balance number as importers front-ran the Liberation Day tariffs. In April, imports fell dramatically and that caused a

Prior -0.5% Retail sales y/y +3.7% vs -2.8% prior In the three months to April 2025, retail sales grew by 0.1% in value and declined by 0.4% in volume compared to the previous three-month period. This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at www.forexlive.com.

Saudi Arabia is pushing for OPEC+ to maintain its faster pace of oil production increases in the coming months, aiming to regain market share rather than support prices, according to sources familiar with the matter. This according to a Bloomberg (gated) report. In summary: Saudis wants at least 411,000 barrels per day added in both

Prior +3.6% That’s a modest beat and even if you exclude large orders, new orders were 0.3% higher than in the previous month. Looking at the breakdown, incoming orders for capital goods rose by 4.1% on the month. And that is slightly offset by declines in incoming orders for both intermediate goods (-3.4%) and consumer

As artificial intelligence becomes more capable, analysts warn that it could eliminate up to half of all entry-level white-collar positions across sectors, driving unemployment as high as 10–20% within the next one to five years. A January World Economic Forum survey, in turn, revealed that 41% of companies expect to reduce headcount due to AI

The New York Fed conducted a survey on tariffs passthrough. They found that “most businesses passed on at least some of the higher tariffs to their customers, with nearly a third of manufacturers and about 45 percent of service firms fully passing along all tariff-induced cost increases by raising their prices.” One caveat is that

Prior was $-0.51 billion (revised to $-2.26 billion) Exports $60.44 billion vs $69.90 billion prior (revised to $67.76 billion) Imports $67.58 billion vs $70.40 billion prior (revised to $70.01 billion) This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at www.forexlive.com.

White House official: Musk’s opposition is ‘one disagreement’ in an otherwise harmonious relationship The White House will not consult every policy decision with Elon Musk Trump is committed to getting the bill passed despite opposition from Musk This is in response to Musk’s oppostiion to Trump’s ‘big bill’ that will skyrocket US debt and fiscal

Well, Japan is at least trying to be creative by further burning bridges with China here. I mean despite both sides having maintained relatively strong economic ties, things have been rather strained politically for many years now. That especially since the territorial dispute in 2010, which eventually led to the embargo on rare earth supplies.

The euro is continuing higher and now up 67 pips on the day, with a portion of that as USD weakness that’s broad based. I’m not confirming a pause The market is only priced for one further 25 bps cut. This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

Australian trade balance data for April 2025 5413mn surplus expected 6000mn, prior 6900mn Exports -2.4% m/m prior +7.6% Imports +1.1% prior -2.2% In March Australian exports jumped ahead of tariffs, and April numbers show a ‘give back’ fall. Gold exports pulled back from record highs in March. — Other data showed Australian Household Spending in

China Caixin / S&P PMI for May 2025 Services 51.1 expected 51.0, prior 50.7 Composite 49.6, dragged down by the soft manufacturing PMI (China Caixin May 2025 Manufacturing PMI 48.3 (prior 50.4!)) prior 51.1 49.6 is the lowest since December 2022 This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

Prelim was +5.7% vs +2.0% prior Productivity -1.5% vs -0.8% prelim Prior productivity +1.7% On face value, there’s some inflationary pressure here with labour costs higher and productivity lower but it’s volatile and lagging data. This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at www.forexlive.com.

Headlines: One last consecutive rate cut for the road by the ECB? What are the expectations for the ECB decision coming up later? China vice president Han Zheng says US-China relations are at ‘critical juncture’ Japan to offer a package on China in tariff talks with the US – Nikkei Suzuki stops production of Swift

Survey data points to some weaker prospects in the near term Higher tariffs, stronger euro to make exports harder Defense and infrastructure investment to bolster growth Boost in defense and infrastructure would raise inflation over the medium term I will update as headlines cross. This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

Prior was 240K Continuing claims 1904K vs 1910K expected Prior 1919K The market has been waiting for a climb in initial jobless claims. This reading is the highest since October, so it’s certainly creeping up and the US dollar has dipped on the data. This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

Prior decision Deposit facility rate 2.00% vs 2.00% expected Prior 2.25% Main refinancing rate 2.15% vs 2.15% expected Prior 2.40% Marginal lending facility 2.50% Prior 2.65% Inflation is currently at around the 2% medium-term target Most measures of underlying inflation suggest that inflation will settle at around 2% target ECB will follow a data-dependent, meeting-by-meeting

The lack of changes in the macro picture and the waiting for the key US data has caused the bullish momentum to wane recently. Growth expectations remain positive and that should keep supporting bitcoin in the bigger picture. The only risk I see ahead for risk assets is a more hawkish repricing in interest rate

DOGE Price Predictions: What’s Next for Dogecoin? Dogecoin (DOGE), the beloved meme-coin that started as a playful joke, continues to capture both investors’ imaginations and market headlines. The past week has brought fresh enthusiasm, speculation, and ambitious predictions. Let’s dive into what top analysts and experts have recently said about DOGE’s future. 🐶 Short-Term Outlook:

Yesterday, we got the news that Saudi Arabia was pushing for OPEC+ to maintain its faster pace of oil production increases in the coming months, aiming to regain market share rather than support prices. The news weighed on the market but was quickly faded as the negative supply news continue to have less and less

Prior 2.8% The data was scheduled for 0545 GMT but was delayed by the source. In any case, the Swiss jobless rate continues to creep higher with this being the highest reading since August 2021. That points to continued softening in labour market conditions since last year. This article was written by Justin Low at

German DAX futures -0.1% UK FTSE futures -0.1% This mirrors the mood in US futures, with S&P 500 futures down 0.1% on the day. In trading yesterday, Wall Street struggled into the close so there’s that to factor in too. Still, it’s been a good week so far for European indices after the slow start

Prior -1.6%; revised to -1.7% Looking at the breakdown, the major drag on the month is mostly due to a fall in energy prices (-7.7%). If you strip that out, euro area PPI actually was up 0.1% in April compared to March. There were increases in the prices for durable consumer goods (+0.1%) and non-durable

TD Securities has updated its forecast for the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA), now projecting two 25 basis point (bps) interest rate cuts in 2025—one in August and another in November—bringing the cash rate down to 3.35%. This revision comes amid signs of economic weakness in Australia. The March 2025 quarter saw GDP growth slow

Major currencies are not doing all too much in the new day with lights changes being observed ahead of European trading. This comes after the dollar fell back again yesterday, continuing the back and forth movements since the start of the week. That is exemplified by USD/JPY which fell over 150 pips on Monday before

Info via The Information: Amazon is developing software for humanoid robots that could eventually take the jobs of delivery workers, according to a person who has been involved in the effort. In doing so, Amazon is paving the way to automate a major part of its operation, the delivery of parcels around the world. This

The ECB is widely expected to cut by 25 bps and bring the policy rate down to 2.00%. The central bank is also expected to revise its economic projections downward for growth and inflation. The market expects the ECB to cut by 25 bps again in September and reach the bottom of their neutral rate

Prior 45.1 The decline in activity was steeper than in April but there looks to be some improvement in fortunes, led by a continued recovery in civil engineering activity. Homebuilding and commercial activity continues to stutter though but firms’ expectations for the coming year improved markedly to turn positive for the first time since the

This will mark the first time that a Japanese automaker has had to halt production due to rare earth export restrictions. And if anything, it continues to highlight China’s dominance in rare earth supply globally. Suzuki says that they have stopped production of its Swift model cars effective 26 May. For some context, Japan and

Eurostoxx +0.1% Germany DAX +0.1% France CAC 40 +0.1% UK FTSE flat Spain IBEX -0.3% Italy FTSE MIB flat After the gains in the past two days, we’re seeing things settle down for a bit with US futures also looking rather tentative. S&P 500 futures are down 0.04%, so it’s not indicative of much to

Nasdaq Analysis for Today (June 5, 2025): tradeCompass Methodology Current Nasdaq Futures Price: $21,748 (hovering around today’s VWAP) Nasdaq Analysis Today: Market Context & Directional Bias Today’s Nasdaq analysis highlights a narrow trading range persisting since yesterday, characterized by a nearly doji-like formation indicating indecision among market participants. Today’s price action remains tight around the

In the European session, we don’t have much on the agenda other than a couple of low tier releases like the Italian Retail Sales and the Eurozone PPI. These indicators won’t change anything in terms of market pricing. In the American session, we have the ECB Policy Decision and the US Jobless Claims data. The

The Czech Republic, also known as Czechia, is a member of the European Union (EU). While Czechia is an EU member, it has not yet adopted the euro and still uses the Czech koruna. So, this is not about the European Central Bank meeting today, Thursday, June 5, 2025. Its an outlook piece re the

Ukraine and the United States are working to launch a joint minerals fund by the end of the year, with the first board meeting expected in July, Ukraine’s First Deputy Prime Minister Yulia Svyrydenko said during a visit to Washington. Svyrydenko met with U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and the U.S. Development Finance Corporation to

Via China China Securities Journal, a state-run media outlet in China:People’s Bank of China (PBOC) could take further measures in H2 of 2025 Such as an RRR cut if necessary In order to further release long-term liquidity to ensure that liquidity remains reasonably ample in the middle of the year and in 2H25 creating a

Saudi Arabia state-owned oil company Saudi Arabian Oil Co. (Aramco) lowered its official selling price for July loadings of Arab Light to Asia to $1.20 a barrel above the Oman/Dubai average, $1.40 in June. Aramco’s latest pricing moves suggest a softer demand outlook in Asia, with cuts across its light and medium crude grades, while

Japan finance ministry 30 year Japanese Government Bond auction bid-to-cover ratio 2.92 prior sale 3.07 & 12-month average 3.39 weakest demand ratio since 2023 (in December 2023 ut was 2.615) average yield 2.904%, yield at lowest accepted price 2.938% auction tail at 0.49 yen versus 0.30 yen at previous auction Not strong results in Japan.

Federal Reserve’s Kugler and Harker to speak on economy & policy Thursday China Securities Journal says PBOC may cut RRR to ensure reasonable liquidity in 2h25 Bank of England Monetary Policy Committee member Megan Greene speaks Thursday China Caixin Services PMI (May) 51.1 (prior 50.7) Australian April goods exports -2.4% m/m (prior +7.6%) More on:

Real wages fell for a fourth consecutive month in Japan in April -1.8% y/y, from -1.8% also in March and -1.5% in February Base pay +2.2% y/y, the fastest in four months Overtime pay +0.8% Total average cash earnings, or nominal pay, +2.3% from +2.3% also in March — Inflation-adjusted real wages are a key

Kugler and Harker look most likely to be of interest: 1600 GMT/1200 US Eastern time: Federal Reserve Board Governor Adriana Kugler speaks on the economic outlook and monetary policy before an Economic Club of New York luncheon 1730 GMT/1330 US Eastern time: Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City President Jeffrey Schmid speaks on banking policy

US auto supplier group says “immediate and decisive action is needed to prevent widespread disruption and economic fallout across the vehicle supplier sector” on Chinese rare earth issue. more to come This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

A leading U.S. auto supplier group is warning that China’s restrictions on rare earth and critical mineral exports pose an urgent threat to the industry. MEMA, the Vehicle Suppliers Association, said on Wednesday that parts manufacturers are already facing “serious, real-time risks” to their supply chains. The group stressed that the situation remains unresolved and

The People’s Bank of China (PBOC), China’s central bank, is responsible for setting the daily midpoint of the yuan (also known as renminbi or RMB). The PBOC follows a managed floating exchange rate system that allows the value of the yuan to fluctuate within a certain range, called a “band,” around a central reference rate,

May US ISM services 49.9 vs 52.0 expected ADP May employment +37K vs +110K prior Bank of Canada rate decision: Rates held at 2.75% as expected More talk about a near-term Canada-US trade deal Beige Book: Economic activity has declined slightly since the prior report BOC Governor Macklem: We will be watching carefully the next

Deutsche Bank is maintaining its call for a 1.50% terminal rate in the European Central Bank’s (ECB) easing cycle but notes rising risks that the cycle may end sooner than previously expected. As the second half of the year unfolds, the bank expects market focus to shift away from near-term rate cuts and toward how

RBC Global Asset Management says the U.S. dollar’s recent slide could be signalling a broader shift in investor sentiment away from American assets. In a note to clients, the firm points to the 10% decline in the U.S. Dollar Index since January—despite ongoing market volatility and elevated investor anxiety that would typically support the greenback.

Good morning, afternoon and evening all. Any charts, technical analysis, trade ideas, thoughts, views, ForexLive traders would like to share and discuss with fellow ForexLive traders, please do so: This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

The final China PMI for May is due today, the Caixin Services and Composite PMIs. Over the weekend we had the official PMIs: China May Manufacturing PMI rose to 49.5 (prior 49.0), Non-manufacturing 50.3 (prior 50.4) And earlier this week the Caixin manufacturing PMI, a very poor result. Chinese authorities are already promising more stimulus

Gold is in an interesting spot. The chart looks a tad dangerous with a series of lower highs but you could equally argue that a period of consolidation is overdue after a long runup from $1700, with only a short pause at $2600. Equally, you could argue that a retracement is overdue as it’s been

I’ve been banging on this drum all day because I think there could be an opportunity here: Alberta Premier Danielle Smith says Canada is optimistic about a near-term trade deal with the US. This comes after late yesterday there was a report in the Toronto Sun citing a source saying “it will happen before the

Half of the Districts reported slight to moderate declines in activity, three Districts reported no change, and three Districts reported slight growth. All Districts reported elevated levels of economic and policy uncertainty Consumer spending reports were mixed Residential real estate sales were little changed Employment steady, hiring cautious due to uncertainty Tariffs driving moderate price

RBC expects the Bank of Canada’s next move to hinge on how much further the Canadian economy softens, with a notable Q2 slowdown in GDP growth and rising unemployment in the forecast. “We think the path of the BoC will be largely determined by the extent of further softening in the economy,” economist Claire Fan

Trump criticizing Powell for being too late is basically an admission that the economy is slowing. ADP NUMBER OUT!!! “Too Late” Powell must now LOWER THE RATE. He is unbelievable!!! Europe has lowered NINE TIMES! For the record, the ECB has cut 7 times from 4.00% to 2.25% while the Fed has cut rates by

The Bank of Canada likes to keep the market guessing. The Fed seems to think it has a solemn responsibility to never make an unexpected move but the BOC doesn’t share that view, that’s why we often get surprises and an uncertain market into rate decisions. Today’s 10 am ET announcement is no exception as

USD/JPY slumped 130 pips on Monday, rebounded 130 pips on Tuesday and fell 130 pips today. These are wide moves in a pair that was once known as a sleepy pair. To start the week, trade was the driver but today the focus was on the US economy. Soft readings on ADP employment and ISM

The latest scuttlebutt is that Trump and Xi will talk on Friday – thats from unnamed sources. Meanwhile, via Politico (a US politics site): “The president is obsessed with having a call with Xi,” said one person familiar with the trade talks, convinced he can personally hash out deep-seated divisions between the world’s two largest

Trump readout from call with Putin: Spoke for 1 hour, 15 mins Discussed Ukraine attack on Russia Conversation was good but will not leads to immediate peace Putin said he will have to respond to attack on planes I find it notable that more than half of Trump’s comments are about Iran, which makes it

Fed: 49 bps (96% probability of no change at the upcoming meeting) ECB: 55 bps (99% probability of rate cut at the upcoming meeting) BoE: 38 bps (97% probability of no change at the upcoming meeting) BoC: 41 bps (73% probability of no change at the upcoming meeting) RBA: 75 bps (82% probability of rate

Prior -1.2% Market index 226.4 vs 235.7 prior Purchase index 155.0 vs 162.1 prior Refinance index 611.8 vs 634.1 prior 30-year mortgage rate 6.92% vs 6.98% prior Mortgage applications fell again in the past week with both purchases and refinancing activities seen declining. With rates continuing to hold at the highs, it is making for

Putin and Trump confirmed readiness to stay in constant contact Trump believes Russia’s assistance on Iran is necessary Trump said US was not warned about Ukraine’s drone attack Ukraine deliberately struck civilian targets We’re all waiting to see what the Russian response is to the attack. This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

Prior was 51.6 Prices paid: 68.7 vs. 65.1 prior New orders: 46.4 vs. 52.3 prior — first negative reading in a year Employment: 50.7 vs. 49.0 prior Business activity: 50.0 vs. 53.7 prior Supplier deliveries: 52.5 vs. 51.3 prior Inventories: 49.7 vs. 53.4 prior Backlog of orders: 43.4 vs. 48.0 prior New export orders: 48.5

Oil lower on headline. This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

FXIFY, the industry’s oldest broker-backed prop firm, is proud to announce the return of its Earth Day initiative in partnership with WeForest. After the overwhelming success of last year’s campaign, which resulted in 15,400 trees planted by over 5,000 traders and the regeneration of 14 hectares of degraded land in Butiama Hills, Tanzania, FXIFY has

Canada PM’s office: Additional U.S. tariffs on Canadian steel and aluminum are ‘unlawful and unjustified’ Canada government is engaged in intensive and ‘live negotiations’ to have U.S. tariffs removed This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

Prior 49.0 Final Composite PMI 50.3 vs 49.4 prelim Prior 48.5 Key findings: Marginal increase in business activity Business optimism rebounds to a seven-month high New work and employment continue to decline Comment: Tim Moore, Economics Director at S&P Global Market Intelligence, said: “The service sector regained its poise in May as receding concerns about

Headlines: Dollar a touch lower in European morning trade Watch out for these two key macro risks ahead Interest rate expectations remain largely the same amid lack of changes in macro picture Trump says it is extremely hard to make a deal with Xi EU’s Sefcovic: Constructive discussion with Greer, we are advancing in right

Prelim was 52.3 Prior was 50.8 Composite PMI 53.0 vs 52.1 prelim and 50.6 prior This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

The ADP jobs report isn’t a good pre-cursor to non-farm payrolls but it’s a jobs measure in its own right and comes from a robust data set. As you can see, it fell in April at the height of Liberation Day anxiety. Will it rebound? The consensus is +110K but the risk is a further

Prior 49.0 Final Composite PMI 48.5 vs 48.6 prelim Prior 50.1 Key findings: Comment: This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at www.forexlive.com.

Focus should be on 2% inflation, not try to make up for past inflation shortfalls Fed should pay attention to overshooting on full employment, not just employment Fed should consider how to better convey key risks, uncertainties and policy responses This is theoretical stuff and doesn’t apply to current outlook. This article was written by

In all likelihood, this is going to result in a Russian escalation and on we go. This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

Prior was -2795K Gasoline +5219K vs +609K exp Distillates +4230K vs +1018K exp Nice headline but huge builds in products. API data from late yesterday: Crude -3300K Gasoline +4700K Distllates +760K Oil dropped on the latest headlines but quickly rebounded. It’s up around 40 cents today. This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

Bank of America expects nonfarm payrolls to rise by 150K in May—above consensus—but warns of downside risks due to trade-related hiring volatility. The unemployment rate is forecast to remain at 4.2%, and a modest miss is unlikely to shift the Fed’s current policy stance. Key Points: Headline Forecast: BofA projects a 150K increase in payrolls,

Sector Overview The US stock market today reveals a mixed landscape of sector performance. Technology and communication services sectors are witnessing notable movements, while the semiconductor industry shows marginal changes. Technology: Microsoft (MSFT) posts a minor gain of 0.38%, reflecting stability in the software infrastructure segment. However, Palantir Technologies (PLTR) experiences a sharp decline of

Prior was +62K Goods producing -2K vs +26K prior Service providing +36K vs +34K prior Wage measures: Pay gains for job stayers 4.5% vs 4.5% prior Pay growth for job changers 7.0% vs 6.9% prior Full report The April reading was the worst one since July and this is even worse as it takes us

ETH Price Prediction Using This Guide: What is “Average Buy Profit,” and How Can Ethereum Traders Use it Effectively? If you’re new to crypto investing or trading, you’ll encounter many unfamiliar terms and metrics. One particularly useful metric is the Average Buy Profit (ABP), offered by blockchain analytics platforms like Whale Alert. Let’s break down

JOLTS April job openings 7.391M vs 7.100M expected China’s top diplomat meets US ambassador to China – report White House confirms that it wants best trade offers by Wednesday Fed’s Goolsbee: We will have to wait and see if tariffs have a big or small impact Fed’s Cook: Monetary policy is well-positioned for a range

China commerce ministry: Minister Wang Wentao met with the European Trade Commissioner Sefcovic in France on Tuesday The two sides conducted concentrated, candid and in-depth discussions on urgent and important topics surrounding China-EU economic and trade cooperation, and ask both teams to intensify efforts to make preparations for important agenda between China and the EU

“I like President XI of China, always have, and always will, but he is VERY TOUGH, AND EXTREMELY HARD TO MAKE A DEAL WITH!!!” There’s no follow up on that and it isn’t clear if he actually spoke to Xi already or not. Earlier suggestions were that they were working towards a potential phone call

The market was pricing in a 26% chance of a cut Macklem said there was a ‘clear consensus’ to hold at this meeting Governing Council decided to hold the policy rate as we gain more information on US trade policy and its impacts April inflation excluding taxes was 2.3%, which was slightly stronger than expected

White House says the boosted steel tariffs will hit at 1201 am on Wednesday, June 4, 2025. UK steel tariffs will remain at 25% though everyone else doubled to 50% This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

Prior was +0.6% (revised to +1.2%) Productivity is critical but notoriously difficult to measure in real time. This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

Good morning, afternoon and evening all. Any charts, technical analysis, trade ideas, thoughts, views, ForexLive traders would like to share and discuss with fellow ForexLive traders, please do so: This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

That comment should add to the trade optimism that’s bubbling in markets. Meeting with Sefcovic was ‘very constructive’ This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

Prior 52.9 Composite PMI 52.5 vs 52.1 prior Key findings: Business activity rises at stronger rate, while the future outlook brightens New business growth softens slightly, but remains historically elevated Inflationary pressures intensify Comment: Commenting on the PMI data, Nils Müller, Junior Economist at Hamburg Commercial Bank, said: “Italy’s service sector continued to expand in

A Barclays note says they are turning less cautious on oil spot fundamentals are holding up better than expected de-escalation in trade tensions is supporting a resilient demand outlook supply has been largely in line expectations This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

We had substantive and constructive discussion with Greer, concluded we are advancing in right direction and pace. Main message from at trade talks in Paris is strong support for multi-lateral ties, strong rules based system. On US steel tariffs, we discussed this with Greer, told him we strongly regret it, and it does not help

Things are still looking fairly subdued so far on the day but there are some light moves to start the session. The push and pull continues for the dollar in trading this week, with the currency nudging back just a touch lower today. EUR/USD is up 0.3% to just above 1.1400 after a bounce off

Since the April 9 pause in the reciprocal tariffs, the de-escalation trend saw the markets pricing out a global slowdown and pricing in a rebound. Sure enough, that’s what happened as we started to get an improvement in the soft data. The current expectations are for continued improvement in global growth and for the disinflationary

There is some underlying volatility in inflation, don’t want to focus too much on one month. This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

Data on Tuesday showed Swiss inflation falling to its lowest level level since COVID. consumer prices fell by 0.1% y/y in May, lowest since March 2021 the SNB has a 0-2% target range Swiss National Bank (SNB) board member Petra Tschudin commented on May inflation data. SNB won’t be distracted by monthly inflation numbers “We’re

The People’s Bank of China (PBOC), China’s central bank, is responsible for setting the daily midpoint of the yuan (also known as renminbi or RMB). The PBOC follows a managed floating exchange rate system that allows the value of the yuan to fluctuate within a certain range, called a “band,” around a central reference rate,

Crypto Whale Transfers Analysis: Weekly Highlights and Market Sentiment Understanding large cryptocurrency transactions, commonly called “whale transfers,” can provide important clues about market sentiment and potential price direction. Using Whale Alert data, we’ve identified the most significant crypto whale transfer each week, analyzed its implications, and summarized the broader market sentiment. Here’s your latest weekly

Composite index 45.5 vs 41.7 prior Confidence amongst service providers improved during May to its highest level since January. Job losses were recorded for four straight months ahead of this data point but this month showed ‘marginal’ growth confidence showed some improvement compared to earlier in the year Latest data indicated an acceleration in input

1230 GMT/0830 US Eastern time Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta President Raphael Bostic gives welcome and closing remarks before a Fed Listens event “How Monetary Policy and Macroeconomic Conditions Affect Individuals and Businesses” at the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta Bostic spoke Tuesday, I doubt there will be any change in content: Fed’s Bostic: Best

The data out from the region today is unlikely to shift around major FX too much. Australian GDP will be interesting for the economics minded but AUD traders will likely not pay it a lot of attention. Japan services PMI will probably be more interesting. A marked shift in tone from Bank of Japan Governor

There are a couple to take note of on the day, as highlighted in bold. The first ones are for EUR/USD at the 1.1350 and 1.1400 levels. The expiries might play a part in keeping price action more limited, at least before we get to US trading later. They don’t tie much to any technical

Technical analysis is a methodology to trade the markets. It uses historical price (or volume) to help you make a trading decision. There are hundreds of technical analysis tools available, but most of them fall into one of these categories…VolumeIndicatorsChart patternsSupport & resistanceBut here’s the thing… Despite having an abundance of these tools (like RSI, MACD, Stochastic, Fibonacci,

Trump plans to invoke emergency powers under the Defense Production Act to fast-track domestic production of critical minerals, bypassing some legal and funding requirements. The move aims to counter China’s dominance in the critical minerals supply chain, especially after Beijing recently restricted exports in response to U.S. trade tensions. Trump’s waivers would remove limits such

Very slow to come out today this data point. Twitter has it now. Via twitter: — Expectations I had seen centred on: Headline crude -1 mn barrels Distillates +1 mn bbls Gasoline +0.6 mn This data point is from a privately-conducted survey by the American Petroleum Institute (API). It’s a survey of oil storage facilities

People’s Bank of China USD/CNY reference rate is due around 0115 GMT. The People’s Bank of China (PBOC), China’s central bank, is responsible for setting the daily midpoint of the yuan (also known as renminbi or RMB). The PBOC follows a managed floating exchange rate system that allows the value of the yuan to fluctuate

We are advancing in the right direction at pace on tariffs There’s no specific details offered up but things appear to be moving at least. I still wouldn’t be one to hold my breath expecting a significant breakthrough any time soon. That especially when there aren’t any specifics revealed just yet. 35 more days to

Japan Jibun Bank PMI May 2025 Services PMI 51.0 preliminary 50.8, prior 52.4 Composite 50.2 preliminary 49.8, prior 51.2 PMI manufacturing, final for May 2025 49.4 (prior 48.7) more to come This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

Japan’s Komeito party, the junior partner in the ruling coalition, plans to propose lowering the consumption tax on food from 8% to 5% as part of its campaign platform for the July upper house election, according to the Yomiuri newspaper. The proposal, expected to be officially announced on Friday, also includes cash handouts to help

Prior 47.3 Composite PMI 49.3 vs 48.0 prelim Prior 47.8 The reading still marks a contraction in business activity but much less pronounced after the revision. Of note, the fall in new orders and employment were not as marked as the months before. HCOB notes that: “The French private sector economy seems like it’s on

Eurostoxx +0.4% Germany DAX +0.6% France CAC 40 +0.3% UK FTSE flat Spain IBEX +0.2% Italy FTSE MIB +0.2% This comes as Wall Street also turned things around yesterday to finish in the black. US futures are more tentative today though, with S&P 500 futures down 0.1%. We’ll have to watch for more trade headlines

Prior 53.4 Composite PMI 51.4 Prior 52.5 The headline reading slows in May to an 18-month low, as increased uncertainty weighed on growth in demand and activity on the month. The confidence in the outlook also slumped to its lowest since November 2023. HCOB notes that: “Cooling conditions in Spain’s private sector economy. The headline

Prior 50.1 Composite PMI 50.2 vs 49.5 prelim Prior 50.4 The revisions see the euro area economy post a marginal growth in business activity in May. But in all honest evaluation, it pretty much points to the economy stalling with services sector growth also grinding to a halt. Weaker demand conditions are to blame, especially

UBS analysts warn that trade wars continue to pose a threat to the US dollar. They note that some U.S. trade partners may delay striking deals with a potential Trump administration, hoping for more favourable terms, which could lead to a fresh round of tariff escalations and increase downside risks for the dollar. UBS sees

Fundamental Overview The USD remains a bit on the backfoot as the support from the more hawkish repricing in interest rates expectations got exhausted a couple of weeks ago. The market is now in line with the Fed’s baseline projection of two cuts in 2025 and we will likely need strong US data to price

This via chief economist at KPMG in the US, Diane Swonk: a Federal Reserve study showed that Trump’s 2018–2019 steel tariffs raised input costs so sharply that any jobs protected in the steel sector were outweighed by broader manufacturing job losses Swonk warned that the impact could be even more severe this time around “Now

Trump plans to invoke emergency powers to fast-track critical minerals domestic production Australian Q1 2025 GDP 0.2% q/q (vs. expected 0.4%) PBOC sets USD/ CNY central rate at 7.1886 (vs. estimate at 7.1977) Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta President Raphael Bostic is speaking on Wednesday, June 4 Japan May 2025 Services PMI 51.0 (preliminary 50.8,

In the European session, we don’t have much on the agenda other than the final services PMIs for the UK and European economies. These shouldn’t be market moving releases since they won’t change anything in terms of market pricing. In the American session, in terms of data points, we have the US ADP, the Canadian

The Toronto Sun is reporting that a deal between both sides could be imminent after a speech at the Empire Club in Toronto from Trump’s new emissary to Canada, Pete Hoekstra. There were mixed opinions about Hoekstra’s speech though but the crowd was said to be stirring up speculation about a deal happening before the

Follow FBI Director Kash Patel via Twitter confirms the arrests: Two Chinese nationals charged for smuggling potential bioterror fungus into the US Says: This case is a sobering reminder that the CCP is working around the clock to deploy operatives and researchers to infiltrate American institutions and target our food supply, which would have grave

Australian S&P Global PMI Final for May Services 50.6 preliminary was 50.5 prior 51.0 Composite 50.5 preliminary was 50.6 prior 51.0 — — From the report, Jingyi Pan, Economics Associate Director at S&P Global Market Intelligence: “Growth in the Australia service sector slowed midway through the second quarter of 2025, according to the latest S&P