Uncategorized

Summary: Magnitude ~6.2–6.3 quake hits Shimane Prefecture Epicentre located in eastern Shimane Intensity recorded at upper-5 on Japan scale No tsunami warning issued Authorities monitoring for aftershocks Depth 10km A strong earthquake struck western Japan Tuesday, hitting Shimane Prefecture with a preliminary magnitude of around 6.2–6.3, according to Japanese authorities. The quake was centred in […]

Summary: India is likely to renew the RBI’s inflation target unchanged in March Current framework anchors inflation at 4% within a 2%–6% band Officials see the system as effective through recent supply shocks Recent inflation remains below the midpoint, easing policy pressure RBI feedback favours maintaining the status quo India is expected to retain its

The People’s Bank of China is due to set the daily USD/CNY reference rate at around 0115 GMT (2115 US Eastern time), a fixing that remains one of the most closely watched signals in Asian foreign exchange markets. China operates a managed floating exchange rate system, under which the renminbi (yuan) is allowed to trade

If you look at the rundown of the S&P 500 today, the best performers are energy companies and it’s no surprise why. Many had exposure to Venezuela and many others are likely to be tapped if/when Venezuelan oil is given back to US companies. Here are the nine biggest winners: Slumberger (SLB): +11.97% Valero Energy

Are financials the hidden AI trade? Or maybe not so hidden given the performance in 2025 and so far this year. The XLF financials ETF rose 13.6% led by a 23.2% return from Wells Fargo and a 21.4% return from JPMorgan Chase. A smaller holding in the ETF was Citigroup, which was up more than

At the balance, the dollar is still trading higher on the day in the major currencies space. But against the Japanese yen, the greenback is now trading lower with USD/JPY sliding back from a high of 157.30 earlier in the day to 156.55 currently. The situation is Venezuela prompted some safety flows into the dollar

KEY POINTS: US dollar recovers the Christmas week losses The market is still betting on at least two rate cuts in 2026 from the Fed On Friday, we have the US NFP report Indian Rupee erased half of its gains since the RBI’s intervention Trump threatens more tariffs on India if they don’t help with

Venezuela itself has been largely compartmentalized. The market has been sniffing out attacks in Venezuela and potential regime change for awhile. There are still some really big questions about who is in charge and what the path is going forward but Venezuela itself is a small economy and even the oil impacts are small. What’s

The economic and event calendar in Asia for today is a light one, with the December manufacturing PMI due from Japan and the Rating Dog Services PMI due from China. You’ll also see listed speeches from Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia President Anna Paulson and Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis President Neel Kashkari. Paulson spoke

The capture of Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro by the Trump administration over the weekend has thrown a massive geopolitical wrench into the energy markets. While the knee-jerk reaction for crude traders might be to bid up prices on uncertainty, the analysts at Scotiabank are warning that the trade isn’t that simple. Scotiabank’s Global Equity Research

Expresses grave concern over US seizing Maduro US actions violate international law Calls on US to immediately release Maduro China is closely following the security situation in Venezuela China has always maintained positive communication with Venezuelan government On oil exports, China believes its interest in Venezuela will be protected by law If situation in Venezuela

📊 Sector Overview Today’s stock market heatmap reveals a vibrant display of mixed performances across various sectors. Notably, the technology sector is exhibiting impressive gains, driven in large part by semiconductor stocks. In contrast, the healthcare sector appears to be underperforming, reflecting a downturn in market sentiment within this space. 📈 Semiconductor Surge: Chipmaker Nvidia

Headlines: China and Russia response the next thing to watch on the Venezuela situation Oil prices fall as US captures Maduro, Trump orders companies to restore Venezuela’s oil China responds to Venezuela situation, urges for immediate release of Maduro Gold Technical Analysis: Venezuela events pushed prices up but US NFP the next risk event Dollar

The US Dollar enters the first full trading week of the year with a mixed performance across the major pairs. While the greenback has gained 0.32% against the Euro, it has softened against the Japanese Yen (-0.16%) and the British Pound (-0.06%) as the North American session begins. In the featured video above, Greg Michalowski,

The immediate reaction in markets to the whole Venezuela situation was reflected in oil prices earlier today. But as we have always seen in the past, geopolitical tensions tend to fade and so does the initial market reaction to it. So in looking out to the big picture and what this whole ordeal might entail,

It’s all playing out well for precious metals to start the new year thus far. Gold and silver are once again in the spotlight today with the former posting gains of 2.1% to $4,420 and the latter up 3.7% to $75.46 respectively. This follows from a strong rally early on Friday but one that fizzled

Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari was on CNBC today with a mix of comments that lean into the soft-landing narrative, though he’s flashing a warning sign on jobs. Inflation is slowly trending down Not concerned about risk of Fed bank presidents being fired Would love to see Powell remain as a colleague for as long

For years, retail traders have faced a fundamental disadvantage that had nothing to do with skill, discipline, or market knowledge. It came down to data. Institutional traders have long operated with dedicated quant teams, proprietary algorithms, and access to historical analysis that most retail traders could only dream of. while hedge funds made decisions backed

Summary: Yen weakened as the dollar opened the first full week of the new year on a firm footing USD/JPY pushed back toward the upper end of recent ranges Rate differentials continue to weigh on the Japanese currency Markets price more Fed cuts than policymakers currently signal US data this week likely to help shape

Prior was 48.2 Prices paid 58.5 vs 57.0 expected (58.5 prior) Employment 44.9 vs 44.0 prior New orders 47.7 vs 47.4 prior A miserable year for US manufacturing ends with some extra disappointment. This is the lowest reading since November 2024. The new orders reading was a slight improvement but still deeply in contractionary territory.

KEY POINTS: US dollar erased the Christmas week losses The Fed is still expected to cut at least twice this year, while the ECB is seen on hold EURUSD pulled back to a key support zone around the 1.1670 level Eurozone CPI and US NFP in focus this week FUNDAMENTAL OVERVIEW USD: The greenback weakened

The long-term copper trade is one I’ve been banging the drum on since at least 2022 and as you look at the longer-term supply gap, this is the year when it really starts to open up and that will be especially true with the massive Grasburg mine mostly curtailed due to last year’s tragic mudslide.

Summary: Bitcoin rose as institutional crypto sentiment improved PwC signalled a strategic shift toward crypto services US regulatory clarity seen as key catalyst GENIUS Act boosted confidence in stablecoins and tokenisation Big-firm engagement reinforces long-term adoption narrative Bitcoin extended gains today as signs of deepening institutional engagement in digital assets reinforced confidence that the US

There aren’t any major expiries to take note of for the day but things will slowly pick up as we officially going on the first trading week of the new year. The full list can be seen below. As mentioned last week, start of the year positioning flows will matter more when looking at price

, This article was written by Justin Low at investinglive.com.

ICYMI: US attacks Venezuela, captures President Maduro Happy New Year, especially to Venezuelans! Monday early FX rates guide Venezuela – Goldman sees 2026 Brent at $56 & WTI at $52, flags longer-term downside risks And Trump later spoke: Trump claims control of Venezuela, warns Colombia and Mexico could be next – Gold and silver pushed

Bitcoin Futures Technical Analysis: Bulls Defend Breakout as 100,000 Comes Back Into Focus Timeframe: 4-hour chart | investingLive.com | January 2026 Bitcoin technical analysis highlights Bitcoin futures are up about 3.3% from Friday’s close, starting 2026 with bullish momentum. BTC has broken above a multi-touch resistance zone dating back to November 2025. A clean breakout

KEY POINTS: DAX touches a new all-time high Breakout of the 2025 range in focus Positive risk sentiment is providing support amid Fed’s easing, neutral ECB FUNDAMENTAL OVERVIEW The German DAX touched a new all-time high today but couldn’t sustain the breakout of the 2025 range. There was strong optimism in the first half of

Summary: China services PMI remained in expansion but slowed further in December New orders grew at the weakest pace in six months Export services demand slipped back into contraction Job shedding continued for a fifth straight month Business confidence rose to a nine-month high China’s services sector continued to expand in December, but the pace

The trading week of January 5, 2026, has begun with significant market movements driven by escalating geopolitical tensions and shifting regulatory landscapes. A primary driver of volatility is the situation in Venezuela, where China has issued a sharp rebuke regarding the reported US seizure of President Maduro, urging his immediate release and condemning the move

Introduction: What Is Stock Trading? Stock trading involves buying and selling shares, which are small ownership pieces of companies listed on the stock market. The main goal is to make money by taking advantage of price changes. When you purchase a share, you own a small portion of that company, and the value of your

KEY POINTS: Oil prices fell following the capture of Venezuelan President Maduro by US forces Venezuelan interim President offers to collaborate with the US following threats of further strikes White House told US companies they must rebuild Venezuela’s crude-pumping infrastructure OPEC+ keeps output steady through Q1 2026 Bearish positioning very stretched, what could flip the

Mortgage approvals 64,530 vs 65,010 prior Net consumer credit £2.08 billion vs £1.71 billion prior Overall, net borrowing of mortgage debt by individuals increased to £4.5 billion in November, following a decrease of £1.0 billion to £4.2 billion in the month of October. Meanwhile, the annual growth rate for net mortgage lending increased slightly to

Monday starts quietly in terms of economic events for the FX market. In the U.S., the focus will be on the ISM manufacturing PMI. On Tuesday, the services PMI data will be released for the eurozone, the U.K., and the U.S. while Wednesday brings inflation data from Australia and the eurozone. In the U.S., attention

As we transitioned into the new year, the narrative for 2026 is that the dollar will continue to soften amid the myriad of same factors that played out in 2025. But for the time being, geopolitical tensions are taking center stage with the situation in Venezuela in particular. And that seems to be helping the

EURUSD Technical Analysis: Euro Weakens Below 1.18 as Bearish Momentum Isn’t Fading EURUSD futures | 4-hour chart | Analyst: Itai Levitan | investingLive.com And it shows that bears continue to be in control. This comes at no surprise to many of us, especially those that got the heads up last week at our Telegram Channel.

EUROPEAN SESSION In the European session, we don’t have much on the agenda other than a couple of low tier releases. The Swiss Manufacturing PMI is expected at 49.6 vs 49.7 prior, but whatever the data shows, the SNB is not going to do anything in terms of monetary policy. The same goes for the

The People’s Bank of China (PBOC), China’s central bank, is responsible for setting the daily midpoint of the yuan (also known as renminbi or RMB). The PBOC follows a managed floating exchange rate system that allows the value of the yuan to fluctuate within a certain range, called a “band,” around a central reference rate,

Summary: Nomura expects China EV demand to cool further in 2026 New subsidy policy signals tighter support for auto sector Mass-market models seen most vulnerable to demand slowdown EV makers likely to prioritise upgrades over price cuts Technology leaders expected to outperform China’s electric-vehicle market is likely to face further demand cooling this year as

Good morning, afternoon or evening to all ForexLive traders and welcome to the start of the back from holidays FX week! Some of us will have unpacked the car after a week or so at the beach and what have you. Some of us will have invaded Venezuela. Big news to open the year, summary:

KEY POINTS: Gold rallied overnight on geopolitical news US NFP report on Friday a key risk event Big picture trend remains skewed to the upside Trendline around the 4230 level could act as strong support FUNDAMENTAL OVERVIEW Gold has been supported recently by the soft US NFP and CPI reports before the Christmas holidays. That

Recap: BOJ’s Ueda signals more rate hikes as wage–price cycle strengthens Bitcoin rises as PwC leans into crypto on US regulatory shift ICYMI: China front-loads 2026 growth with US$42bn infrastructure project rollout Nomura warns China EV demand to cool as subsidy policy tightens BOJ’s Ueda signals further rate hikes as wage–price cycle strengthens Economists warn

Summary: BOJ signals further rate hikes are likely this year Ueda confident wage–price cycle is taking hold Policy rate already at a 30-year high Spring wage talks seen as key catalyst Yen weakness and inflation under close watch The Bank of Japan is increasingly signalling that further interest-rate hikes are likely this year, as confidence

The People’s Bank of China is due to set the daily USD/CNY reference rate at around 0115 GMT (2115 US Eastern time), a fixing that remains one of the most closely watched signals in Asian foreign exchange markets. China operates a managed floating exchange rate system, under which the renminbi (yuan) is allowed to trade

Suymmary: Trump reaffirmed US control over post-Maduro Venezuela US says it is working with newly sworn-in leaders in Caracas Washington will not invest in Venezuela, despite oil company interest Trump floated the idea of an operation in Colombia Mexico also warned, with cartel power cited as justification US President Donald Trump escalated rhetoric across Latin

Summary: China unveiled an early batch of 2026 infrastructure projects worth ~295 bn yuan Funds target transport, water, energy and security-related projects Spending aims to front-load investment ahead of the 15th Five-Year Plan Ecological protection and carbon reduction also receive funding Infrastructure remains central to China’s growth-stabilisation strategy ICYMI: China has moved to front-load infrastructure

Summary: Economists see inflation remaining sticky through 2026 Growing risk of RBA rate hikes, possibly from February Late-2025 inflation rebound shifted policy expectations Housing, services and labour-market tightness key drivers Forecasts now split between hikes, holds and cuts Inflation is expected to remain uncomfortably persistent over the year ahead, increasing the likelihood that the Reserve

Paulson spoke on Saturday in the US, summary: Suggests further rate cuts may be delayed Inflation seen moderating, growth around 2% in 2026 Current policy still slightly restrictive, helping curb inflation Labour market slowing but remains resilient Any further easing likely later in the year, data-dependent Federal Reserve officials may be in no rush to

Summary: Japan’s manufacturing PMI returned to neutral territory in December New orders fell at the slowest pace in 19 months Output stabilised and employment growth accelerated modestly Input prices rose at the fastest rate since April Firms remained cautiously optimistic heading into 2026 Japan’s manufacturing sector showed clear signs of stabilisation at the end of

Summary BOJ’s Ueda signalled readiness to continue raising rates Further tightening depends on growth and inflation tracking forecasts Wage–price cycle seen as increasingly sustainable Monetary adjustment framed as supportive of long-term growth Signals reinforce Japan’s exit from deflation-era policy Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda reinforced expectations of further policy normalisation, signalling that the central

Summary: Goldman Sachs left its near-term price forecasts unchanged, projecting average prices of $56 per barrel for Brent crude and $52 for West Texas Intermediate this year. Goldman sees limited near-term impact from Venezuela on oil prices Any production recovery likely to be gradual and partial Infrastructure damage and underinvestment remain major constraints Near-term Brent

US futures trade for the new week has commenced with Globex now open. oil futures have dropped around 1% gold and silver up a touch emini spx and Nasdaq futures are up also The big news from the weekend was of course from Venezuela: US attacks Venezuela, captures President Maduro Happy New Year, especially to

Summary: OPEC+ agreed to keep oil output steady through Q1 2026 Eight producers cited seasonal demand softness and balanced markets Voluntary cuts remain available for gradual reintroduction if needed Decision comes amid Saudi–UAE tensions and Venezuela uncertainty Next OPEC+ policy review scheduled for February 1 OPEC+ moved to reinforce oil market stability over the weekend,

Sun: OPEC+ Mon: European Epiphany holiday (No After-Hours Trading in Italy); UK Mortgage Approvals/Lending (Nov), US ISM Manufacturing PMI (Dec), Final PMIs (Dec) Tue: European Epiphany holiday (No After-Hours Trading in Italy); French & German Prelim HICP (Dec), EZ Final PMIs (Dec), UK Final PMIs (Dec) Wed: Australian CPI (Nov), German Retail Sales (Nov), Unemployment

The US launched military operations in Venezuela and captured President Nicolas Maduro and his wife. Images from the country showed multiple strikes and fires. US President Trump announced that Madura was captured. An executive from state oil company PDVSA said the La Guaira port was severely damaged but that oil facilities were unscathed. Trump We

Markets won’t be back in full swing until next week but we’re getting a bit of a teaser of what the focus will be today already. US futures are running higher but it is once again commodities that are hogging the spotlight, in particular precious metals. After melting higher in December, we’re starting to get

Prior 49.6 Euro area manufacturing activity slumped in December with the headline reading being a 9-month low amid a fresh decline in output. Demand conditions are showing renewed weakness with new orders falling at the quickest pace in almost a year. Overall business optimism is still being retained with the contraction here being a relatively

The Canadian manufacturing sector remains stuck in the mud as the final Canadian S&P Global survey of manufacturers was released. It’s another soft reading for the Canadian economy, and the details here are painting a stagflationary picture that the Bank of Canada isn’t going to like. Here are the details from the S&P Global Manufacturing

If you would like to stay in holiday mode again today I’ve good news for you. The vacation mood will carry on for today, Friday, January 2, 2026, with professional activity mainly returning on Monday the 5th. I thought we might have Rating Dog services PMI from China today, after we got official PMIs and

Sector Overview The stock market witnessed a notable rally today, with the semiconductor sector leading the charge. Key players like Nvidia (NVDA) and Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) surged by 2.02% and 3.63% respectively, reflecting robust investor confidence in tech hardware advancements. 🚀 Technology: Broad gains were observed with companies like Oracle (ORCL) and Palantir (PLTR)

Prior 50.6 This article was written by Justin Low at investinglive.com.

Prior 47.8 The final estimate is little changed from the preliminary reading as France’s manufacturing sector saw a modest jump in activity to round off the 2025 year. A strong rise in new export orders was the key reason in underpinning sentiment while employment conditions also returned to growth on the month. Meanwhile, output volumes

Prior 50.2 There is a slight negative revision but it still marks an improvement to November, as the UK manufacturing recovery continues at end of 2025. Of note, both output and new orders nudged higher in helping to see the headline reading post a 15-month high. So, that’s a positive signal at least. However, there

Prior 48.2 The headline reading is a 10-month low as a drop in demand conditions sees German manufacturing activity slump in the final month of last year. Of note, manufacturing output slid into contraction territory for the first time in ten months amid falling export sales. And that led to deeper cuts to employment, purchasing

The Fed might be headed for a more dovish shift in 2026 but Treasury yields may stay underpinned regardless. And that’s not a good recipe for risk trades, even if the early positioning flows today might point to a more optimistic picture for equities to start the year. As much as stocks are hoping for

Summary: Australia’s manufacturing sector remained in expansion in December, with the PMI holding at 51.6 for a second straight month. New orders and output continued to grow, though momentum eased amid softer foreign demand and tighter competition. Employment rose at the fastest pace in nine months, supported by better candidate availability and rising workloads. Supply

Global broker STARTRADER is unveiling a refreshed look and feel as part of its brand repositioning. Since its establishment, the company has been focused on strengthening the trust it has built with clients, partners, and institutional businesses. The repositioning will be reflected in the brand’s visual identity. To align with the newly introduced tagline, “Built

Prior 51.5 Spain’s manufacturing sector slid back into contraction territory for the first time since April amid falls in both output and new orders. Softer demand conditions are to blame but manufacturers also chose not to renew temporary labour contracts, resulting in the biggest monthly fall in employment for two years. HCOB notes that: “Spain’s

Prior +0.3% House prices +0.6% vs +1.2% y/y expected Prior +1.8% It’s a soft end to the year with the average house price ending at £271,068 for December. But overall, UK housing market activity has remained resilient all through 2025. One has to remember that household and consumer sentiment in the UK has been relatively

Bank of Korea (BOK) warns weak won risks inflation as USD/KRW diverges from fundamentals Trump TACO now with pasta – backtracks on Italian pasta tariffs after industry pushback Australia manufacturing PMI holds 51.6 in December. Hiring accelerates & inflation firms. ICYMI: China slaps 55% tariff on excess beef imports under new three-year safeguard regime Canadian

Happy New Year, everyone! I hope you’re all still enjoying the holiday break as markets are still more or less sidelined until next week. That is when activity and liquidity will slowly pick back up after the rest period from Christmas to the new year. As such, there aren’t any major expiries to take note

Summary: Bank of Korea Governor Rhee Chang-yong said the central bank will review its forward guidance framework on the future path of interest rates. Rhee warned that excessive won weakness could harm domestic businesses and add to inflation pressures. He said USD/KRW levels above 1,400 appear disconnected from Korea’s economic fundamentals. The BOK will not

Summary: The U.S. Commerce Department has sharply reduced proposed antidumping duties on Italian pasta imports, stepping back from levels that risked forcing producers out of the U.S. market. Initial duties of up to 92% were revised down to 2.3% for La Molisana and 13.9% for Garofalo, with most other producers facing a 9.1% tariff. Italian

TL;DR summary, and note there is AUD risk in this news: China will impose a 55% tariff on beef imports exceeding newly set quotas from January 1, 2026, under a three-year safeguard regime. The 2026 total import quota is set at 2.7 million tonnes, broadly in line with 2024 imports but below 2025 shipment levels

There are two big events to watch for in 2026 that will swing the outlook for the loonie, including one that could be just days away: 1) Supreme Court decision on tariffs The Supreme Court has until late June to decide on the legality of US tariffs on Canada but because this was an expedited

The euro is proof that once something in financial markets becomes overly hated, it doesn’t take much to lift it. The common currency was the top G10 currency in 2025, rising 13.3% against the US dollar. It was closely followed by the Swiss franc with the Australian dollar and British pound in third and fourth

Prior was 214K (revised to 215K) Continuing claims 1.866M vs 1.923M prior The claims numbers over the holidays are highly volatile and subject to large seasonal revisions so they’re poor numbers to index from. The drop over a number of weeks is notable though and is tracking towards the bottom end of this range again.

Sector Overview The latest stock market heatmap paints a mixed picture for investors, with differing fortunes across various sectors. Technology and healthcare present a standout contrast, marking today’s dynamic landscape. 📈 Semiconductors Surge: Nvidia (NVDA) shines bright, up 1.23%, leading a mild rally in semiconductor stocks such as AMD (+0.49%) and Intel (+0.54%). This uptick

TL;DR summary: OPEC+ is widely expected to reaffirm its planned pause in oil output increases at a meeting this weekend, as evidence builds of a growing global supply surplus and slowing demand growth. With crude prices under sustained pressure, the group appears inclined to prioritise market stability over further production hikes. — OPEC+ is expected

Data released by China’s National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) for the official manufacturing and non-manufacturing PMIs in December 2025. – The screenshot adds in the priors, not mentioned in the text. The screenshot does not show the ‘Composite’ which has come in at 50.7, up from 49.7 in November. – China publishes two main PMI

OPEC+ expected to maintain output pause amid growing global oil surplus, January 4 meeting China S&P Global/Rating Dog December 2025 Manufacturing PMI 50.1 (expect 49.8, prior 49.9) China official December 2025 PMIs: Manufacturing 50.1 (exp 49.2) Non-manu 50.2 (exp 49.8) PBOC sets USD/ CNY reference rate for today at 7.0288 (vs. estimate at 6.9945) China

TL;DR summary: China is extending a value-added tax (VAT) exemption on certain residential property sales, adding another incremental policy measure aimed at stabilising its long-running real estate downturn. While the move lowers transaction costs for homeowners, it underscores Beijing’s preference for targeted relief rather than more forceful intervention. — China will extend a policy waiving

The People’s Bank of China (PBOC), China’s central bank, is responsible for setting the daily midpoint of the yuan (also known as renminbi or RMB). The PBOC follows a managed floating exchange rate system that allows the value of the yuan to fluctuate within a certain range, called a “band,” around a central reference rate,

The real estate market, long seen as one of the most traditional, relationship-driven industries, is undergoing a profound technological transformation. In 2025, this shift isn’t just incremental; it’s structural. New technologies from artificial intelligence (AI) to blockchain and immersive reality tools are changing how properties are marketed, bought, financed, and managed, blurring the line between

Introduction: What Is Prop Trading? Prop trading, short for proprietary trading, occurs when a financial firm uses its own money to trade in the market instead of using clients’ funds. Instead of making money by charging fees or commissions to customers, these firms aim to make direct profits from their trading activities. For traders, working

Summary: The December meeting minutes from the Federal Open Market Committee reveal a finely balanced debate over the decision to cut interest rates, with policymakers divided between growing labour-market risks and lingering concerns over inflation credibility. While most participants see scope for further easing if disinflation resumes, several warned against moving too quickly while inflation

China’s manufacturing sector showed tentative signs of stabilisation at the end of 2025, with business conditions edging back into expansion territory, according to the latest S&P Global/Rating Dog Purchasing Managers’ Index data. While the improvement was modest, the rebound marked a welcome shift after months of subdued momentum, driven primarily by stronger domestic demand rather

The People’s Bank of China is due to set the daily USD/CNY reference rate at around 0115 GMT (2115 US Eastern time), a fixing that remains one of the most closely watched signals in Asian foreign exchange markets. China operates a managed floating exchange rate system, under which the renminbi (yuan) is allowed to trade

China is set to publish a fresh round of Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) data later today, Wednesday, December 31, offering another timely snapshot of economic momentum at the end of a difficult year for the world’s second-largest economy. China publishes two main PMI surveys, each capturing different parts of the industrial landscape. The official PMI

Via oilprice.com: While the headline and distillates showed smaller builds than expected the gasoline build was much greater. — Expectations I had seen centred on: Headline crude +2.39 mn barrels Distillates +1.75 mn bbls Gasoline +1.55 mn — This data point is from a privately-conducted survey by the American Petroleum Institute (API). It’s a survey

TL;DR summary: China is stepping up efforts to revive household spending, allocating fresh funding from ultra-long special treasury bonds to expand its consumer trade-in subsidy scheme. The programme, first launched in 2024, will be broadened in 2026 to include digital and smart products, as policymakers look to counter weak growth momentum and rebalance the economy

Seems like everyone wants to get in the gold crowded Long. Even Goldman Sachs says to buy gold and sell oil, but what about our Euro traders and investors? EURUSD continues to trade in a technically sensitive zone, where order flow dynamics reveal more than standard price charts alone. While spot price action may appear

TL;DR summary: Trump warned Iran against rebuilding weapons programs, reviving strike risk. Renewed Iran tensions raise the prospect of higher oil risk premiums. Hamas disarmament pressure adds to regional instability concerns. Trump renews Iran strike warning as Gaza disarmament pressure raises oil risk premium US President Donald Trump warned that Washington could back another major

TL;DR summary: China delivered minimal rate cuts despite expectations for aggressive easing. The PBOC has prioritised financial stability and targeted liquidity tools. Fiscal stimulus is expected to carry the bulk of policy support into 2026. China’s central bank has taken a notably restrained approach to monetary easing, defying widespread expectations for aggressive rate cuts as

There has been a lot of talk lately about the rise in U.S. debt, and rightly so. This year alone, it has increased by more than $2 trillion. What is even more worrying is that interest payments on the debt continue to rise. According to the Congressional Budget Office’s summary for fiscal year 2025, net

The latest CaseShiller housing price index of the 20-largest US cities showed prices up 1.3% year-over-year, just a shade above the +1.2% consensus but a deceleration from the +1.4% y/y reading in September. On a monthly basis, home prices rose 0.3%, beating the +0.1% consensus. The September reading was revised to +0.2% from +0.1%. A

The team at Goldman Sachs is out with their big 2026 Commodities Outlook, and they aren’t mincing words. If you’re looking for a theme to hang your hat on next year, Daan Struyven and the team call it: “Ride the Power Race and Supply Waves.” The gist? The US-China fight for AI and geopolitical dominance

Sector Overview The industrials sector is showing notable gains today, with Boeing (BA) leading the pack with a rise of 1.24%. This uptick might be attributed to positive developments in aerospace and defense, providing a lift to the overall sector. Conversely, the consumer cyclical sector appears to be under pressure. Amazon (AMZN) has dipped by

If not for the AI boom and massive government deficits, I suspect the broader US economy would look more like the housing industry. The massive hangover from ultra-low rates during covid continued this year, despite early hope for optimism. The home builders’ ETF ($XHB) tells the story. It was rocked early in the year along

Prior +3.0% HICP +3.0% vs +3.0% y/y expected Prior +3.2% Spanish headline inflation comes in slightly below the readings in November but more or less within estimates at least. The most important metric though is core annual inflation and that is still seen at 2.6%, similar to the previous month. As such, that continues to

Well, a brand new year will mark the changing of the guard so to speak in terms of voting members at the Fed. And we will get to that in a couple of days’ time, so it is important to understand the dynamics of the situation especially since we’re entering a rather delicate timeline for

It is reported that China is to mandate chipmakers to use at least 50% of domestically made equipment for adding new capacity, as Beijing looks to keep up the push in building a self-sufficient semiconductor supply chain. The sources noted however that the rule is not one that will be publicly documented. But should chipmakers

TL;DR summary: Silver steadied after a 9% one-day drop, the largest in over five years. Both gold and silver are on track for their best annual gains since 1979. Central-bank buying, ETF inflows and Fed rate cuts continue to underpin prices. Silver prices stabilised above $73 an ounce after suffering their steepest one-day decline in

TL;DR summary: China shipment data point to a sharp rebound in non-Chinese branded phones, boosting Apple’s implied market share. Premium demand appears resilient despite weak overall growth in China’s handset market. Regulatory risks persist, but brokers see iPhone momentum cushioning near-term pressure. A renewed surge in iPhone demand across China is reinforcing the bullish case

Monday’s close was 7.0056. People’s Bank of China injects 312.5bn yuan via 7-day reverse repos in open market operations, rate remains 1.4%. — The People’s Bank of China daily USD/CNY reference rate is a fixing that remains one of the most closely watched signals in Asian foreign exchange markets. China operates a managed floating exchange

Oil traders note – Saudi airstrikes in Yemen expose escalating tensions with UAE China defies easing calls as PBOC keeps rates steady and shifts focus to fiscal support Silver steadies after sharpest sell-off in 5 years as metals head for best year since 1979 PBOC sets USD/ CNY central rate at 7.0348 (vs. estimate at

TL;DR summary: Saudi Arabia carried out airstrikes in southern Yemen, indirectly confronting the UAE. Riyadh accused UAE-linked channels of supplying weapons to southern separatists. The episode exposes a widening Saudi–UAE rift with potential oil-market implications. Quiet but long-simmering tensions between Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates (UAE) moved into the open after Saudi airstrikes

The People’s Bank of China is due to set the daily USD/CNY reference rate at around 0115 GMT (2115 US Eastern time), a fixing that remains one of the most closely watched signals in Asian foreign exchange markets. China operates a managed floating exchange rate system, under which the renminbi (yuan) is allowed to trade

TL;DR summary: South Korea will publish a roadmap early next year for MSCI index upgrade. The move targets long-standing accessibility gaps that currently keep Korea as an emerging market. Inclusion could attract substantial foreign capital and narrow the “Korea discount.” South Korea’s Ministry of Economy and Finance has confirmed it will announce a detailed roadmap

TL;DR summary: EIA data showed unexpected builds across crude, gasoline and distillates. Inventory figures clashed with prior expectations for tightening balances. Oil prices remained supported by geopolitical risk and supply concerns. — US oil inventories surprise to the upside as geopolitical risk lifts crude prices The US Energy Information Administration’s long-delayed weekly inventory report delivered

TL;DR summary: Nvidia has completed a $5bn private placement in Intel, formalising a ~4% equity stake. The deal follows US government and SoftBank funding aimed at supporting Intel’s turnaround. Intel’s recent share rally leaves Nvidia sitting on a sizeable unrealised gain. — Nvidia’s $5bn Intel stake becomes official as partnership shifts from promise to execution

Palladium futures had one of those sessions where the price action alone looks chaotic, but the order flow underneath tells a clearer story. Today’s move was not just a normal pullback. It behaved like a forced unwind that eventually transitioned into stabilization and early recovery, with a credible case that the session low near $1677

Bitcoin Futures Technical Analysis Today: Range Pressure Builds Near 91,000 Resistance When I look at the 30-minute time frame since December 11th, the story has been a step-like transition from a higher pricing zone into a more defined trading range. Price rotated around the mid area near 91,750, close to where the December 12 VWAP

Sector Overview: Technology and Finance in Focus The stock market today paints a somewhat mixed picture as observed through the heatmap, with a notable decline in semiconductor stocks. The semiconductor sector is glowing red with significant declines. Nvidia (NVDA) is leading the downturn, falling by 1.96%, while AMD and AVGO are also suffering losses at

As we look to wrap up 2025, the AI bubble just about managed to get away unscathed to end the year. That being said, there were rising concerns to deal with especially that on valuation. And in talking about that, it is fair to say that all of this will be a mainstay in the

TL;DR summary: Drills include blockade-style operations and joint assault scenarios Exercises involve multi-directional air and naval approaches Rhetoric framed as warning against Taiwan independence Markets watch for signs of escalation beyond scheduled drills China’s military has announced a new, larger-scale exercise around Taiwan (earlier info: China to conduct live-fire military drills surrounding Taiwan on December

Silver certainly got its moment in the spotlight last week as a parabolic move went stratospheric. The put silver on front pages around the world and prompted some hand-wringing from the world’s richest man. There are rumors about squeezes and margin calls prompting the last leg of the move on Friday and now that air

Earlier: China to conduct live-fire military drills surrounding Taiwan on December 30 China flags more proactive fiscal policy in 2026 to boost domestic demand China industrial profits slump at fastest pace in 14 months as demand weakens — The People’s Bank of China is due to set the daily USD/CNY reference rate at around 0115

Here is the expiries board for the remainder of the year. And as you would guess it, overall activity is rather sparse amid the lack of liquidity and interest during the holiday period. The only relevant one today is highlighted in bold below. But on a day like this, I wouldn’t attach much significance –

TL;DR summary: Elon Musk flags concern over potential silver supply restrictions Social media claims point to tighter Chinese export controls from 2026 Silver is critical for EVs, electronics and renewable technologies China dominates global silver supply chains Markets alert to parallels with rare earth export curbs – Silver prices have attracted renewed volatility after comments

TL;DR summary: BoJ says policy rate remains far below neutral despite recent hike Several members favour steady further rate increases Real interest rates seen staying deeply negative even at 0.75% Yen weakness and bond yields partly blamed on overly low rates Stronger wage-price dynamics reinforce tightening case Full text: Summary of Opinions at the Monetary

Friday’s close was 7.0063. Since then: China launches “Justice Mission 2025” drills simulating blockade around Taiwan (more info) China to conduct live-fire military drills surrounding Taiwan on December 30 China flags more proactive fiscal policy in 2026 to boost domestic demand China industrial profits slump at fastest pace in 14 months as demand weakens Added:

Many thought Donald Trump’s return to the White House would mainly boost cryptocurrencies, sending BTC/USD and the broader market to new highs. However, the reality has been somewhat different. Since the start of the year, Bitcoin prices have declined by more than 7%, although it reached a new all-time high in October. Stocks, meanwhile, have

TL;DR summary: China signals a more proactive fiscal stance for 2026 Policy focus shifts toward consumption, innovation and social support Authorities aim to reduce reliance on exports and lift domestic confidence Growth target around 5% likely to be retained Fiscal policy expected to play a central stabilising role China’s fiscal stance is set to turn

Musk flags silver supply (and price!) risks as China export curbs spark market concern PBOC sets USD/ CNY mid-point today at 7.0331 (vs. estimate at 7.0057) China launches “Justice Mission 2025” drills simulating blockade around Taiwan (more info) BoJ signals more rate hikes ahead as policy seen far from neutral. JPY trades higher. Christmas Day/Boxing

TL;DR summary: Industrial profits fell 13.1% y/y in November, the steepest decline in over a year Weak domestic demand and factory-gate deflation outweighed export resilience Coal sector profits slumped sharply, dragging aggregate performance Autos and high-tech manufacturing remained relative bright spots Markets continue to expect further policy support in 2026 to stabilise growth China’s industrial

TL;DR summary: China announces major PLA drills around Taiwan on December 30 Exercises include live-fire activities in surrounding waters and airspace Drills run from 8 a.m. to 6 p.m. local time Markets view the move as a familiar geopolitical risk signal Focus remains on whether exercises are extended or escalated China announced it will conduct

TL;DR summary: European and US leaders report “good progress” in Ukraine peace discussions Trump reiterates talks are close, but admits key territorial issues remain Security guarantees largely agreed, though not yet finalised Europe stresses need for ironclad guarantees from day one Markets remain cautious about pricing a full peace dividend — Momentum around Ukraine peace

We are all is trying to gauge if this is the “Peace Dividend” moment or just more of the usual negotiation bluster. Trump says they are in the “final stages” of talking and believes both Putin and Zelensky want a deal. Promises a “strong” security agreement is coming. He’s calling European leaders today and plans

Its an almost empty economic and event calendar in the Asia-Pacific timezone today. Well, it is holidays! Professional market traders won’t really fire up again until next Monday, January 5. Nevertheless, we will be getting the Bank of Japan’s ‘Summary of Opinions’ from the December meeting at 2350 GMT which is 1850 US Eastern time

Discover how trend following really works — backed by decades of market data and real performance stats. Learn why it remains one of the most proven, systematic trading strategies used by top hedge funds. The post The Essential Guide To Trend Following (Backed By Data) appeared first on TradingwithRayner.

One of the big surprises of 2025 was OPEC+ abandoning efforts to prop up the price of oil. For years, OPEC had been a strong market backstop, managing supply to maintain a floor under crude. However, a combination of eroding market share, resilient non-OPEC production finally forced a change in strategy and perhaps a nudge

Mixed sector performances as tech and healthcare show gains The US stock market today presents a diverse picture, with sectors displaying varied performances, reflecting both investor optimism and cautious sentiment ingrained in today’s trading dynamics. 🔍 Sector Overview Technology Sector: The technology sector shows promise with NVDA leading gains at 0.68%, highlighting positive investor sentiment.

The TL;DR summary: Tokyo core CPI slowed to 2.3% y/y in Dec (vs. prev 2.8%, exp 2.5%), driven by lower energy and utility costs. Core-core CPI eased to 2.6% y/y (prev 2.8%), but remains above the BOJ’s 2% target, signalling persistent demand-side pressure. Headline CPI cooled to 2.0% y/y (prev 2.7%), marking the first clear

Bank of Japan Governor Ueda spoke at the Meeting of Councillors of Keidanren (Japan Business Federation) in Tokyo in Thursday, December 25, 2025. The title of the speech, reflective of its content, was “Toward the Achievement of the Price Stability Target Accompanied by Wage Increases”. Summary: Ueda said underlying inflation is steadily approaching 2%, supported

Prior week 224K revised to 224K The 4-week moving average was 216,750, a decrease of 750 from the previous week’s unrevised average of 217,500 Continuing claims 1.923M vs 1.900 estimate. Prior week 1.897M revised to 1.885M The 4-week moving average was 1,893,750, a decrease of 5,250 from the previous week’s revised average. The previous week’s

The Corporate Service Price Index (CSPI), more commonly referred to as Japan’s services producer price index, measures the change in prices charged between companies for services, such as transport, communications, advertising and other business-to-business services. Unlike traditional producer price indexes focused on goods, the CSPI captures service-sector price pressures that can be a leading signal

Quick Summary: Success in Forex isn’t about predicting the win; it’s about defining where you are wrong. This guide covers the 3-step risk process: Defining (Technical levels), Limiting (Position sizing/proximity), and Accepting (Mental edge). A Text That Boosted My Ego (And Proved My Point) A few years ago, at a social gathering, I met someone

Summary Bank of Korea says NPS has activated strategic FX hedging The move aims to manage FX risk and curb won volatility Hedging could generate dollar selling and support the won Authorities frame it as risk management, not intervention Signals lower tolerance for prolonged currency weakness – South Korea’s central bank, the Bank of Korea,

Sector Overview In today’s market snapshot, the overall sentiment appears cautious with the technology sector exhibiting minor declines. Notably, Nvidia (NVDA) has slipped by 0.64%, leading the sector’s retreat. Meanwhile, Oracle (ORCL) marked a decrease of 0.38%. Conversely, the consumer cyclical sector offered a beacon of positivity, with Tesla (TSLA) gaining 0.76%. The consumer defensive

Summary Nomura sees Asia’s easing cycle largely complete despite low inflation A north–south monetary policy divide is emerging across the region Korea, Australia, New Zealand and Malaysia seen holding or hiking rates Residual rate cuts expected in India, ASEAN economies and China Risks skewed to global growth, trade tensions and AI-related volatility Asian monetary policy

Prop Trading Challenges for Newbies: How to Spot Unfair Rules and Platform Risk Before You Pay If you are taking prop trading challenges, you are not only trading the market. You are also trading the prop firm’s rules, technology, and support quality. Two fresh examples show why this matters: A major futures prop firm faced

Summary Japan plans to assume a 3% interest rate on bond expenses in its FY26 budget The assumption reflects rising JGB yields and BOJ policy normalisation It marks the highest budgeted rate in roughly two decades Higher debt-servicing costs could constrain fiscal flexibility The move signals a more realistic acceptance of a higher-rate environment –

I don’t want to sound mean-spirited but there is a lesson here that’s worth highlighting. If you’ve listened to Cathie Wood extensively — and I certainly have — then you know what I’m talking about. She’s certainly not stupid but probably won’t strike you as the kind of person that should be running what was

Summary Tesla UK sales fell sharply in November, echoing wider European declines Germany and France saw particularly steep drops in Tesla registrations Competition from Chinese automakers, especially BYD, intensified UK EV buyers increasingly favour plug-in hybrids over full BEVs The data point to structural challenges rather than a one-off dip Sales of Tesla continued to

So, it’s been about eight months already since “Liberation Day”. How time flies. Yet, we’re yet to see a significant bump to the overall inflation outlook in the US. Yes, higher prices have come but it hasn’t quite translated too strongly to the overall narrative. And as we look towards 2026, how will all of

I spoke about this issue back in November already here: Here’s another reason why the AI trade might need a bit of rethinking So, is 2026 going to be the year where that narrative takes over markets and we all have to redefine what it means to be in the AI trade? Perhaps so. In

The oil folks seem to have packed it in for the year, this via a telegram channel: — Expectations I had seen centred on: Headline crude -2.4 mn barrels Distillates +0.4 mn bbls Gasoline +1.1 mn — This data point is from a privately-conducted survey by the American Petroleum Institute (API). It’s a survey of

Summary U.S. to impose tariffs on Chinese legacy chips, but only from June 2027 Decision follows a year-long Section 301 investigation launched under Biden Delay preserves leverage while easing near-term trade tensions with China Move coincides with negotiations over rare earths and tech export controls Broader Section 232 chip tariffs remain possible but not imminent

The People’s Bank of China (PBOC), China’s central bank, is responsible for setting the daily midpoint of the yuan (also known as renminbi or RMB). The PBOC follows a managed floating exchange rate system that allows the value of the yuan to fluctuate within a certain range, called a “band,” around a central reference rate,

It’s a light calendar ahead for Asia, except for the Bank of Japan minutes. The caveat is, of course, that the minutes are those from the October 2025 meeting, which was a place holder at best. The other notable event is that its not Christmas Day. Summary BOJ October minutes are due but pre-date December’s

Nomura flags Asia policy split as Fed seen cutting twice in 2026 Washington delays semiconductor tariffs as it seeks China trade truce KRW up: South Korea NPS activates strategic FX hedging to curb won weakness and volatility PBOC sets USD/ CNY reference rate for today at 7.0471 (vs. estimate at 7.0240) ICYMI – Tesla sales

I posted earlier on why this doesn’t rally matter too much, the meeting pre-dates December’s much more consequential rate hike and the subsequent swings in the yen: Economic and event calendar in Asia Wednesday, December 24, 2025: BoJ minutes (preview) Anyway, for good order, here’s a summary article. Summary BOJ October minutes reflect broadly stable

The People’s Bank of China is due to set the daily USD/CNY reference rate at around 0115 GMT (2115 US Eastern time), a fixing that remains one of the most closely watched signals in Asian foreign exchange markets. China operates a managed floating exchange rate system, under which the renminbi (yuan) is allowed to trade

Policy rate held at 2.25%, with Governing Council judging current settings as appropriate and at the lower end of neutral after 100 bp of cuts earlier in 2025 Canadian economy showing resilience, supported by upward GDP revisions, though Q4 growth expected to soften and data volatility remains high Labour market improving but still mixed, with

Summary Mark Zandi says official US CPI data significantly understates inflation. Moody’s Analytics estimates November inflation remained near 3%, not 2.7% (Goldman Sachs share concerns) Measurement issues stem from shutdown disruptions and survey timing distortions. CPI data quality has deteriorated due to rising reliance on imputed prices. Underlying inflation remains well above the Fed’s target,

Introduction: What Is Gold Trading? Gold trading involves buying and selling gold to earn money based on price changes in the market. This differs from simply owning gold in forms like jewelry or bars. When you trade gold, you can try to make money from short-term price movements or use gold to protect your investments

Overview of Canada’s GDP (October 2025) Top-Line Growth: Real GDP decreased 0.3% in October, more than offsetting the 0.2% growth seen in September. Broad Contraction: 11 out of 20 industrial sectors saw declines. Sector Split: Both Goods-producing (-0.7%) and Services-producing (-0.2%) industries contracted during the month. Manufacturing & Industrial Activity Manufacturing Sector: Fell 1.5%, wiping

WH economic advisor Kevin Hassett Hassett: GDP is a great Christmas present for the American people Trump trade agenda is working AI boom is being seen in the data Regardless of job AI is impacting their job. Will see employment change back in the 100K -150K range if GDP stays in a 4% range Consumer

The Conference Board’s latest release confirms that US consumer confidence fell for the fifth consecutive month in December 2025. Despite a temporary reprieve following the end of the federal government shutdown, rising anxiety over jobs and a darkening business outlook have pushed a key recession indicator deeper into the danger zone. The Headline Numbers Consumer

A zero-commission, transparent solution for long-term and new investors — plus a €50 Welcome Bonus to get started. Trading.com’s European entity has launched its Investment Account, allowing EEA clients to invest directly in shares listed on major global exchanges. Fully integrated into the Trading.com platform, the Investment Account provides a simple, transparent way to invest

Summary MUFG says sustained franc strength could force the SNB to respond with negative rates or intervention. Falling oil prices in 2026 could add disinflationary pressure in Switzerland. Negative rates would make the franc more attractive as a funding currency. Fed independence concerns may continue to support CHF against the dollar. Progress on Ukraine peace

Prior +0.2% The year-on-year figure is a standout as Germany records a drop of 1.9% in import prices compared to November 2024. That marks the sharpest year-on-year decline for import prices since March last year. Looking at the details, energy prices were the main culprit as they were seen down 15.7% compared to November 2024.

Gold and silver prices have climbed sharply, is there round number resistance ahead? Zandi says US inflation is higher than reported as CPI data quality worsens Japan officials’ warnings have continued to bolster the yen, USD/JPY under 156.50 ByteDance plans $23bn AI spending push for 2026, boosts AI capex amid chip uncertainty Musk’s (SpaceX’s) Starlink

Tech stocks drive market gains, healthcare falters: A sector breakdown Today’s US stock market showcased a dynamic landscape with technology taking the lead, while healthcare sectors lagged. As investors navigate the fluctuations, let’s delve into the day’s sector performances, market trends, and strategic recommendations. 📈 Technology Soars: A Leader in the Market The technology sector

Markets love simple explanations. A chart goes vertical and the default diagnosis follows. Momentum. Retail frenzy. Speculation. Something viral on social media. That framing completely misses what happened with SMX (NASDAQ: SMX). Since November, SMX has moved more than 1,900% higher to its current $116 at the close on Tuesday. That kind of number usually

The BLS released the GDP for the 3Q and it showed strong growth but higher inflation: Preliminary GDP for Q3 4.3% vs 3.3% estimate Sales 4.6% vs 7.5% last quarter Deflator 3.7% vs 2.7% estimate. Prior 2.1% Core PCE 2.9% vs 2.9% estimate. Prior 2.6% Consumer spending 3.5% vs 2.5% prior For the full report:

Versus Trade has reported a strong market entry, reaching $75 billion in trading volume and over 100,000 registered accounts within its first six months of operation. The brokerage’s early performance reflects a launch strategy focused on differentiated products, infrastructure readiness, and early regulatory alignment rather than short-term promotional activity. The broker entered the market with

Looking at the other US data released today in summary: US Durable goods orders for Oct -2.2% vs -1.5% est. Prior 0.5% revise from 0.7% (lower) Ex transportation 0.2% versus 0.3% expected. Prior 0.6% revised 0.7% (lower) nondefense capital ex air October 0.5% versus 0.4% expected. Prior revised lower to 0.9% from 1.1%. Ex defense

ADP Pulse for the week ending December 6 comes in at 11.5K vs a revised 17.5K last week For the four weeks ending Nov. 29, 2025, private employers added an average of 17.5K jobs a week. This continued strengthening during the second half of November signals a rebound in hiring after four weeks of job

As a reminder, this isn’t the first time that Japan has explored the potential to get rare earth minerals supply outside of China. In fact, the whole Lynas plant setup in Malaysia was also a direct result of political altercation between Japan and China over a decade ago. So, here we are again. Well, sort

The message is certainly interesting with Takaichi definitely trying to soothe Japanese markets more than anything else with this one. After already enacting a roughly ¥18 trillion supplementary budget for the current fiscal year, her government is expected to go through with a ¥122 trillion budget for the next fiscal year starting April. Her fiscal

Summary Starlink said its global customer base has exceeded 9 million users. The figure is up from 8 million reported just a month earlier. Growth reflects expanding satellite capacity and global rollout. Starlink is a key revenue pillar within SpaceX’s long-term strategy. Rapid adoption underscores strong demand for low-orbit broadband. Satellite internet provider Starlink, owned

It seems like former central bankers in Japan are not shying away from the press, amid intense scrutiny against the BOJ and the government. I guess it’s easier when you’re not the one in the hot seat, eh? Adachi says that the government’s fiscal policy ambitions have driven markets to sell Japanese bonds and the

If it hasn’t been said already, the reasons underpinning the gold rally are bountiful. And with the precious metal continuing to soar to new heights towards the end of the year, the question is can it keep up the good form for a third straight year running? In that lieu, one key driver that could

Summary ByteDance plans to lift AI investment sharply in 2026, sources say. Preliminary capex budget is around Rmb160bn ($23bn), up from 2025. About half of spending is earmarked for advanced semiconductors. AI chip access remains uncertain due to US export controls. Move highlights intensifying AI competition between China and the US. TikTok owner ByteDance is

The economic and event calendar in Asia today, Tuesday, December 23, 2025, is nearly empty. We do get RBA December meeting minutes and that’s about it. Due at 0030 GMT / 1930 US Eastern time I’ve posted a preview of what seems likely from these below. Summary: The Reserve Bank of Australia minutes are likely

Summary USD/JPY has fallen below 156.50 as the yen extended recent gains. Atsushi Mimura expressed deep concern about “one-sided, sudden” FX moves in comments Monday. Mimura flagged readiness to act against excessive volatility. Finance Minister Katayama emphasised Tokyo’s “free hand” to counter speculative swings in comments later on Monday. The Japanese yen continued to strengthen

Reserve Bank of Australia Minutes of the December 2025 Monetary Policy Board Meeting. Summary RBA minutes show rising concern that inflation pressures may be more persistent. Confidence that policy is still restrictive has diminished. Monthly CPI seen as useful but unreliable for now; quarterly CPI remains key. Labour market assessed as still a little tight,

The People’s Bank of China (PBOC), China’s central bank, is responsible for setting the daily midpoint of the yuan (also known as renminbi or RMB). The PBOC follows a managed floating exchange rate system that allows the value of the yuan to fluctuate within a certain range, called a “band,” around a central reference rate,

Summary Nvidia aims to resume H200 AI chip shipments to China by mid-February, sources told Reuters. Initial deliveries would come from existing inventory, with larger capacity planned for 2026. Shipments hinge on Chinese government approval and US export licensing. The move follows Trump’s decision to allow H200 sales with a 25% fee, reversing Biden-era restrictions.

Summary Gold and silver prices have surged amid lower real yields and inflation concerns. Safe-haven demand has risen on geopolitical and macro risk. Central bank policy expectations keep real rates subdued. A softer US dollar boosts commodity demand. ETF inflows signal broader investor rotation into precious metals. Gold and silver prices have climbed sharply in

The People’s Bank of China is due to set the daily USD/CNY reference rate at around 0115 GMT (2115 US Eastern time), a fixing that remains one of the most closely watched signals in Asian foreign exchange markets. China operates a managed floating exchange rate system, under which the renminbi (yuan) is allowed to trade

Summary Treasury Secretary Bessent flagged possible changes to the Fed’s inflation framework and communications. Said Kevin Miran could return to the White House by February or March, aligning with a likely Fed chair decision. Bessent indicated support for an inflation target range, but only once inflation is back at 2%. He floated the idea that

Summary: Japan’s finance minister said authorities have a “free hand” to act against speculative yen moves. Remarks followed yen weakness after the BOJ’s rate hike and lifted the currency in Europe and US trade. Comments built on earlier Asia-session support after verbal intervention from Atsushi Mimura. Reference to the Japan–US FX accord suggests Tokyo believes

Summary Trump said the US may sell or retain oil seized near Venezuela. The seized crude could be used to replenish the Strategic Petroleum Reserve. Washington will also keep the confiscated ships, Trump said. The move follows tighter US enforcement on Venezuelan-linked oil flows. Comments add to geopolitical uncertainty in energy markets. US President Donald

Executive Summary: A World on Edge Escalating Nuclear Anxiety: Prime Minister Netanyahu has signaled that Iran’s recent military exercises and nuclear ambitions remain a primary threat, with high-level strategy talks set to begin with the Trump administration. Defense Sector Breakthrough: The U.S. Aerospace & Defense sector (ITA) is hitting record highs as President Trump and

The US treasury auctioned off $69B of 2-year notes at a high yield of WI level at the time of the auction 3.496% Tail +0.3 basis points vs 6 month average of -0.4 bps Bid to cover 2.54Xvs 6 month average of 2.61X Directs 34.1% vs 6 month average of 31.7% Indirects 53.2% vs 6

As we look towards the holiday period, gold and silver traders are not taking their foot off the pedal though. The precious metals continue to race higher in the new week with gold now racing to fresh record highs above $4,400. Relentless. It has been mentioned countless times already that gold has a lot going

Market Summary at a Glance Historic Milestones: Both gold and silver are on track for record-breaking closes, with gold up over 2% and silver gaining more than 2.5%. Monetary Tailwinds: Expectations for two additional U.S. interest rate cuts in 2025 are lowering real yields and boosting demand for non-yielding assets. Geopolitical Safety: Rising tensions in

IPPI for November 6.1% vs 6.0% prior RMPI YoY 6.4% vs 5.8% prior IPPI MoM 0.9% vs 0.3% est and 1.5% previous RMPI MoM 0.3% vs 1.6% last Details of the IPPI: Annual Change: Gained 6.1% year-over-year, marking the 14th straight annual increase. Broad-Based Rise: 16 out of 21 commodity groups saw prices rise compared

Fed’s Miran is speaking on Bloomberg TV. Says there were anomalies in inflation data tied to the government shutdown, Anomolies point toward the Fed needing to move in a more dovish direction Does not see a near-term recession Believes the neutral rate has shifted lower, Policy needs to reflect that shift Stresses it is important

The next rate hike to 1.00% could come around June or July next year But that would be dependent on the strength of the economy, as well as wage and price developments Further rate hikes after that could become more challenging though That as it would bring borrowing costs closer to the neutral rate, which

Bitcoin seen back in six figures in 2026 as ETF and tokenisation themes gather pace Ackman pitches radical SPARC deal to Elon Musk to take SpaceX public (Tesla-linked route) Japan intervention warning nudges yen stronger, USD/JPY retreats (higher AUD/JPY forecast) Ethereum puts security ahead of speed as zkEVMs move toward institutional readiness. PBOC sets USD/

Sector Overview Today’s market heatmap reveals a notable upswing in the technology sector, driven, in large part, by impressive gains in semiconductors and software infrastructure. Nvidia (NVDA) has surged by 1.33%, leading a bullish trend within the semiconductor space, with Micron Technology (MU) showing a further gain of 3.66%. Meanwhile, Oracle (ORCL) in software infrastructure

The study reportedly shows that German auto exports to the US declined by almost 14% in the first three quarters of the year, making it the hardest hit industry amid the tariffs imposed by US president Trump. As a reminder, this comes despite a “better” agreement of 15% baseline tariffs on autos set out by

Summary Oil prices rose after the U.S. intercepted a Venezuelan oil tanker Washington is pursuing another tanker, tightening sanctions enforcement Israel–Iran tensions add a separate geopolitical risk premium Markets wary of miscalculation triggering broader conflict Supply-side risks outweigh near-term demand concerns Oil prices firmed in early Asian trading on Monday, supported by a renewed uptick

Summary: Major banks see Bitcoin’s 2026 outlook shaped by ETF adoption, regulatory clarity and institutional tokenisation, with forecasts clustering firmly in six-figure territory. – Bitcoin’s long-term investment case is increasingly being framed around institutional adoption rather than retail speculation, with major global banks outlining scenarios that place the cryptocurrency well into six-figure territory by 2026.

Summary Ethereum shifts zkEVM roadmap toward security-first standards 128-bit provable security set as mandatory for mainnet use Three milestones introduced through end-2026 New cryptographic tools make higher security achievable Institutional adoption push continues alongside tighter standards Ethereum Foundation has set out a new technical roadmap for zero-knowledge Ethereum Virtual Machines, signalling a decisive shift away

If you ask around, most people would’ve heard the term Santa Claus rally in markets. There’s always that feeling that stocks will perform better as we get towards the end of the year. Call it the Santa Claus rally, call it window dressing, call it whatever you want. However, most investors tend to have a

The People’s Bank of China (PBOC), China’s central bank, is responsible for setting the daily midpoint of the yuan (also known as renminbi or RMB). The PBOC follows a managed floating exchange rate system that allows the value of the yuan to fluctuate within a certain range, called a “band,” around a central reference rate,

As the year winds down towards a close and the holiday season takes over, there are still important lessons that one can take away from trading this period. Yes, markets will remain open and that means we as traders need to know how to navigate through the conditions in play. So, what is the worst

Summary Israel warned the Trump administration about Iranian missile exercises Intelligence is inconclusive but Israel’s risk tolerance is lower post-Oct 7 U.S. intelligence sees no imminent Iranian attack Senior Israeli and U.S. military officials coordinated defensive planning Risk of escalation seen as driven by miscalculation rather than intent Israel has raised concerns with the Trump

Summary: Ackman proposes taking SpaceX public via a SPARC merger Tesla shareholders would receive rights to invest in SpaceX Structure avoids IPO fees, dilution and market timing risk Pershing Square commits $4bn at the same valuation Path created for a future xAI listing Ackman is offering Musk a way to take SpaceX public without Wall

Summary: Apple plans AI glasses and AI-enhanced AirPods next year Two smart-glasses models planned, with and without display Display-free glasses may launch first using voice-based AI AI AirPods to feature spatial recognition and gesture controls Taiwan supply chain plays central role in production Apple is preparing to expand its artificial-intelligence hardware strategy with the launch

Summary: Japan’s intervention warning gave the yen a modest lift USD/JPY slipped toward 157.25 from highs near 157.75 Officials flagged concern over “one-sided and sharp” moves Verbal intervention slowing momentum, not reversing trend AUD/JPY still supported by yield differentials — A renewed warning from Japanese officials about the risk of currency intervention has given the

Summary: Cleveland Fed President Hammack favours holding rates steady for several months She is more concerned about inflation than labour-market weakness November CPI likely understated true inflation, she argues Neutral rate seen higher, implying policy may already be stimulative Tariff-related cost pressures risk renewed price increases in Q1 Beth Hammack signalled a clear preference for

Summary Indian equities have entered an unusually low-volatility phase Regulatory curbs have reduced derivatives activity and intraday swings Domestic institutions now dominate ownership as foreign funds exit Equity returns lag global peers despite market stability Options traders are being forced to rethink volatility-selling strategies Info via a Bloomberg (gated) piece. India’s equity market has entered

The People’s Bank of China is due to set the daily USD/CNY reference rate at around 0115 GMT (2115 US Eastern time), a fixing that remains one of the most closely watched signals in Asian foreign exchange markets. China operates a managed floating exchange rate system, under which the renminbi (yuan) is allowed to trade

Summary Westpac now expects the RBA to hold rates through all of 2026 Inflation is easing, but not fast enough to change the RBA’s stance Rate cuts remain feasible in early 2027 under current forecasts Labour-market deterioration could shift timing earlier Private-sector recovery reducing downside growth risks Westpac Economics has revised its outlook for Australian

As is usual for a Monday morning, market liquidity is very thin until it improves as more Asian centres come online … prices are liable to swing around, so take care out there. Do be aware that many wholesale market participants have closed now for the holiday period. This is partially because they have closed

USD/JPY was up 220 pips on Friday and that’s not what anyone in Japan wanted to see. As bad as that looks, the reality is worse. The persistent strength of the US dollar against the yen since mid-year is increasingly problematic and Friday we might have hit a boiling point. That’s because top Japanese officials

Japan’s Katayama: Alarmed over currency moves, will take appropriate action Canada October retail sales -0.2% vs 0.0% expected ECB’s Lane on why the ECB is cutting into a sticky-inflation slowing economy US November existing home sales 4.13m vs 4.15m expected December final UMich consumer sentiment 52.9 vs 53.4 expected Fed’s Williams: CPI data had some

It was a week in two parts as heavy selling hit markets to start the week as the post-FOMC slump continued. That turned around yesterday in part due to strong revenues from Micron and the bounce continued today. A lower US CPI also helped even if it was likely skewed by data collections problems due

Summary Japan signals greater focus on fiscal sustainability Debt-to-GDP reduction framed as confidence booster Tax relief costs revised higher Japan’s Finance Minister Katayama signalled a renewed emphasis on fiscal discipline when outlining priorities for compiling the next fiscal year’s budget, highlighting the need to balance policy support with long-term sustainability and market confidence. Speaking on

It’s easy to dunk on strategists. It’s a year-end tradition to pull up the forecast lists and laugh at how wrong the banks were. But they did pretty well this year. With the S&P 500 trading at 6,831 today, the index is up roughly 16% on the year. That is a strong, double-digit run. And

USD/JPY is quickly lower on this. Desirable for FX to move in stable manner reflecting fundamentals Will take appropriate action Clearly seeing one-sided, rapid moves This is the strongest language yet and it comes after the yen sold off hard despite today’s Bank of Japan rate hike. The BOJ hiked short-term rates today to 0.75%,

The German DAX has been bouncing around for months but shook off some selling at the start of the week to post a solid gain. It was indicative of the continent, which finished Friday solid to cap an ok week. There was better strength in southern Europe, just like there has been all year. The

Prior was -0.7% (revised to -0.9%) Ex-autos -0.6% vs +0.2% expected Prior ex-autos -0.2% (revised to -0.1%) Core sales -0.5% Advance November reading +1.2% Autos sales +0.6% vs -2.9% prior The surprise story of post-Liberation Day Canada has been just how strong retail sales have been. Unemployment has been creeping up and housing is in

After months of easing, the Governing Council decided that 2.00% is the magic number—the “neutral” rate where they can sit back and let the economy hum. But if you listened to Philip Lane today, the humming sounds more like a sputter. Lane’s presentation at the CBI workshop was a masterclass in saying “we are done

Prior was 4.10m Home sales change vs +1.2% prior Shares of home builders have been beaten up this week on poor earnings and even-weaker forecasts for the months ahead. This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

It is Quadruple Witching Friday—that rare quarterly alignment where contracts on four different types of securities expire simultaneously: Index options Single stock options Index futures Index futures options According to data from Goldman Sachs, a staggering $7.1 trillion in notional options exposure is set to expire today. To give you an idea of the sheer

Summary Goldman expects three BoE cuts in 2026 In March, June and September, from their previous forecast of a cut in each of February, April, and July. Labour market weakening supports easing Inflation seen remaining contained The Bank of England’s decision to cut interest rates on 18 December has reinforced expectations that the UK central

Headlines: USD/JPY set to post biggest daily gain in a month, eyes on December highs BOJ governor Ueda says the possibility of further rate hikes will be data-dependent BOJ governor Ueda says rate hikes will continue if economy develops as per projections S&P 500 Technical Analysis: Is Santa Claus coming to town? Interest rate expectations

CNBC was earlier out with a report saying that the Fed’s Waller had a ‘strong interview’ for Fed chair. That begs the question: What does a strong interview with Trump look like? A pledge to lower rates? A pledge to take orders? I take this as CNBC trying to save us from one of the

An interview with Simon Massey, CEO & Co-Founder, Funded Trading Plus As 2026 approaches, traders and trading firms are operating in a market environment defined less by certainty and more by competing narratives. Artificial intelligence, geopolitical risk, shifting monetary policy, and growing concerns around market concentration have created conditions where volatility feels permanently “on standby”.

Prelim was 53.3 Prior was 51.0 This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

OneRoyal has announced Dominic Poynter as its new Chief Commercial Officer. Mr. Poynter was internally promoted after a very successful stint as the broker’s Chief Marketing Officer. During his tenure as CMO, he helped secure an extremely valuable brand ambassador in Diego Forlán. Leveraging his 25 years of experience, Dominic spearheaded the company’s marketing efforts

Sector Overview The US stock market today is witnessing notable trends in the technology and semiconductor sectors. Based on today’s heatmap, tech giants are on the rise, with Oracle (ORCL) leading the charge with a stunning increase of 5.47%. Meanwhile, the semiconductor industry is experiencing a substantial uptrend, prominently driven by Nvidia (NVDA) rising 1.73%

The Bank of Japan raised its short-term policy rate by 25 basis points, lifting it to 0.75%, in a widely anticipated move that marks the highest level in roughly three decades and underscores the central bank’s gradual shift away from ultra-loose policy. I’ll have more specific detail on the statement and associated BoJ releases soon,

Let’s get this out of the way first and foremost. The rate hike today was very well anticipated and priced in by markets already. As such, there isn’t all too much reaction with the Japanese yen even falling after the fact even as interest rates are at the highest since 1995. Markets don’t react to

Williams did a fairly big 180 in supporting a December rate cut and these are his first comments since the decision. Looking ahead, his comments are generally neutral and wait-and-see tone regarding the path forward for rates. He downplays the rise in unemployment as “distortions” but also suggests the soft CPI data had “distortions” as

New Zealand recorded a monthly trade deficit of NZ$163 million in November, as import growth slightly outpaced exports, according to data released by Statistics New Zealand. While the deficit was relatively modest in monthly terms, the figures highlight the ongoing challenge of balancing external trade amid uneven global demand and domestic consumption trends. Total exports

Summary U.S. launches interagency review of Nvidia H200 exports Trump backs controlled chip sales to China National security concerns remain central The Trump administration has initiated a multi-agency review that could pave the way for the first-ever sales of Nvidia’s H200 artificial intelligence chips to China, according to sources familiar with the process cited by

Our next policy move is not automatically an interest rate hike Future decisions are to be made on a meeting-by-meeting basis Inflation risks are now slightly tilted to the downside But not in favour of pre-emptive or “insurance” rate cuts at this stage Outlook for growth and inflation in the euro area remains highly uncertain

KEY POINTS: UK data supports more rate cuts The BoE cut the Bank Rate to 3.75% as expected BoE Governor Bailey sounded more upbeat on disinflation with scope for more easing FTSE 100 gained on expectations of more policy easing, better growth FUNDAMENTAL OVERVIEW The BoE cut the Bank Rate to 3.75% as expected yesterday

For CFD brokers, the first 72 hours are decisive. Yet most of them witness the same pattern unfold: traders register, hesitate at KYC, explore briefly, and bounce off. By the time a follow-up email arrives, they’ve already started trading with a competitor. This is no longer a conversion issue, but rather an engagement matter. How

KEY POINTS: US CPI came out much softer than expected, potentially giving the Fed a reason to cut earlier than expected The Fed’s dovish reaction function remains a tailwind for the stock market The Santa Claus rally might be starting, but traders will look for technical breaks to have more conviction FUNDAMENTAL OVERVIEW The US

EUROPEAN SESSION: In the European session, the main highlight was the UK Retail Sales report. The data came out negative disappointing expectations and weighing a bit on the pound. In the bigger picture, it doesn’t change anything for the BoE as it remains focused mainly on inflation. Looking ahead, we will just get a couple

KEY POINTS: US CPI surprises to the downside, potentially opening the door for an earlier than expected rate cut US Jobless Claims disagree with NFP report. We’ll get a clearer picture next month. Key technical levels are limiting the upside. Traders are waiting for breakouts. FUNDAMENTAL OVERVIEW The US CPI yesterday surprised to the downside

President Trump is planning to issue an executive order establishing two new federal holiday, according to Axios. The move would make Dec 24 and Dec 26 holidays, in addition to Christmas which is already a day off. It would apply to Federal workers but not state and local governments In reality, many workers already get

Rate cuts by year-end (2026) Fed: 61 bps (76% probability of no change at the upcoming meeting) BoE: 36 bps (90% probability of no change at the upcoming meeting) Rate hikes by year-end (2026) BoC: 22 bps (94% probability of no change at the upcoming meeting) ECB: 6 bps (97% probability of no change at

Australia Private Sector Credit for November 2025: +0.6% m/m expected +0.6%, prior +0.7% Summary Credit growth matched expectations in November Lending remains steady, as do rates for now Limited implications for RBA policy Australia’s private sector credit growth held steady in November, offering little in the way of fresh signals for monetary policy but reinforcing

The People’s Bank of China is due to set the daily USD/CNY reference rate at around 0115 GMT (2115 US Eastern time), a fixing that remains one of the most closely watched signals in Asian foreign exchange markets. China operates a managed floating exchange rate system, under which the renminbi (yuan) is allowed to trade

Summary BoJ expected to hike rates to 0.75% Real rates remain negative despite move Yen reaction hinges on guidance, not decision A crowded global macro calendar lies ahead, but for markets the clear focal point is the Bank of Japan’s policy decision, followed closely by Governor Kazuo Ueda’s press conference. Together, the two events are

The GBPUSD pair has transformed into a technical battleground as the trading week nears its close. A combination of a divided Bank of England (BoE) and a cooling US inflation report has created a “whipsaw” environment, leaving the price resting precariously on a significant layer of technical support. The BoE Catalyst: A narrow 5-4 vote

Summary BoJ raised rates to 0.75% as expected Yen reaction weaker, but muted without guidance surprise Gradual policy normalisation remains base case JGB yields have risen, 10yr to highest since May 2006 The Bank of Japan raised its short-term policy rate to 0.75%, the highest level in three decades, delivering another milestone in its gradual

Summary EU approves €90bn Ukraine financing for 2026–27 Deal builds on budget headroom borrowing plans Multi-year support aims to boost certainty European Union leaders have reached agreement on a major new financial support package for Ukraine, approving €90 billion of funding for 2026–27, according to comments from European Council President António Costa. German Chancellor Merz

Summary Core CPI held at 3.0% in November Underlying inflation pressures remain firm Data supports gradual BoJ tightening Japan’s nationwide inflation data for November showed price pressures remaining firmly entrenched, reinforcing expectations that the Bank of Japan will continue its gradual path toward policy normalisation. Government data released on Friday showed core consumer prices rose

Summary EU agrees in principle on Ukraine loan Funding to be backed by EU budget headroom Unanimity among member states appears possible European Union leaders have agreed in principle to provide a new loan to Ukraine, funded through EU borrowing on capital markets and backed by unused EU budget headroom, according to draft conclusions seen

Lower risks to inflation and growth triggered conditions for a rate hike today Underlying inflation is running above the 0% mark So far, market players are not all too convinced. And pardon me for also reserving some skepticism towards the probability of Ueda really hitting back at the government for a second time. They won

This follows a decline of 0.9% in retail sales volume for October, which was revised up from a 1.1% decline previously. The year-on-year estimate for November shows that UK retail sales are now 0.6% higher compared to the same month a year ago. However, that is a marked miss on estimates of +1.6% with the

Summary Goldman sees CPI having limited Fed impact December data more important for January meeting Core PCE disinflation remains intact The latest U.S. consumer price index (CPI) data released on 18 December is unlikely to materially alter the Federal Reserve’s near-term policy outlook, according to Goldman Sachs, which argues policymakers will instead focus on inflation

Japanese markets are volatile, adjusting to the BoJ rate hike – wary eye now BoJ Gov Ueda More detail on Bank of Japan decision to raise rates by 25bp to the highest in 30 years Bank of Japan hikes its short term rate by 25bp to 0.75%, as expected Toyota to sell U.S.-made vehicles in

Japan’s economy is showing moderate recovery, though weakness persists Loose monetary policy to sustain economic recovery Japan’s real interest rates are likely to remain very low Uncertainties in US economy and trade policies have decreased Wage increases likely will match that of the previous year Future monetary moves will reflect economy, inflation, and financial trends

Summary Toyota to export U.S.-made vehicles to Japan Move aimed at easing U.S.–Japan trade tensions Tariff relief a key motivation Toyota Motor Corp plans to begin selling U.S.-manufactured vehicles in Japan from 2026, a move aimed at easing trade tensions with Washington and strengthening ties with President Donald Trump’s administration as tariff negotiations remain in

The People’s Bank of China (PBOC), China’s central bank, is responsible for setting the daily midpoint of the yuan (also known as renminbi or RMB). The PBOC follows a managed floating exchange rate system that allows the value of the yuan to fluctuate within a certain range, called a “band,” around a central reference rate,

Summary BoJ raised policy rate to 0.75% as expected Decision was unanimous, but wording saw dissent Real rates remain significantly negative The Bank of Japan raised its short-term policy rate by 25 basis points to 0.75%, delivering a widely anticipated move that takes borrowing costs to their highest level in around three decades. The decision

If clarity arrives that inflation is waning, then rates can come down IS uncomfortable front-loading rate cuts Needs to see more sustained progress on cooling inflation Measure of job market have shown pretty steady cooling Rates can go down a fair bit as long as we know we’re heading back to 2% inflation It doesn’t

At the end of the day, a government’s economic job is to spend money and collect taxes. The ones that spend too much ultimately have to pay it back, with interest. Running deficits is almost always popular with voters (and certainly with donors), particularly when it makes the stock market go up. BCA today has

EPS, revenue and margins all beat expectations Cost discipline and efficiency gains drove upside FY EPS guidance floor raised; capex unchanged FedEx delivered a strong fiscal second-quarter performance, beating expectations across earnings, revenue and margins, as cost discipline and improved network efficiency more than offset a still-muted global demand backdrop. The parcel delivery group reported

US November CPI 2.7% y/y vs 3.1% expected ECB leaves rates unchanged at 2.00% as expected, but lifts 2026 inflation forecast Bank of England rate decision: A quarter-point rate cut as expected US initial jobless claims 224K versus 225K estimate. Fed’s Goolsbee: The latest inflation data was favorable ECB sources report: Policymakers had no appetite

United Kingdom GfK Consumer Confidence for December 2025: -17 vs. expected -18, prior -19 Summary Improved modestly in December Budget restraint and easing inflation offered support Spending remains weak despite real wage gains British consumer confidence edged higher in December, reaching its joint-highest level of the year, though sentiment remains weak by historical standards, according

Summary Reports suggest Cybercab testing on public roads Austin seen as key autonomy testing hub Autonomy central to Tesla’s long-term narrative Shares of Tesla are likely to draw fresh attention after social media reports suggested the company’s long-awaited Cybercab vehicle has been spotted testing on public roads in Austin, Texas for the first time. While

Summary PM office source raises nuclear weapons debate Comments clash with Japan’s non-nuclear tradition Security concerns driving renewed discussion Japan’s long-standing stance on nuclear weapons has come under renewed scrutiny after a source within the prime minister’s office suggested the country may ultimately need to possess nuclear arms, comments that risk sparking political backlash both

Major US indices delivered a powerful performance on Thursday, snapping a four-session losing streak. Investors were fueled by a “double jolt” of optimism: a cooling inflation report and robust earnings from the semiconductor sector. The lower-than-expected CPI data has successfully recalibrated market expectations for the Federal Reserve’s interest rate path heading into early 2026. Inflation

The global metals market is witnessing a significant divergence as structural demand fuels a bullish outlook for gold and copper, while cyclical headwinds pressure industrial materials. Goldman Sachs has doubled down on its “long gold” conviction, projecting a double-digit rally by 2026. Gold’s $4,900 Target: Goldman Sachs has identified a 14% upside risk for gold,

Well, at long last we are starting to perhaps see some improvements in French business sentiment. Confidence in this space has been languishing for well over a year already but is this an early sign of things to come? The composite business confidence estimate picks up in December, recording a reading of 98.7 – its

The USDCAD pair is currently locked in a high-stakes technical tug-of-war. After a persistent decline from the late November highs, the price is wedged between two defining trend indicators, creating a “make-or-break” moment for short-term traders. The Battleground: Price is squeezed between the 100-hour MA (1.3769) and the 200-hour MA (1.3795), signaling a shift from

The AUDUSD has reached a critical technical crossroads. After a strong rally from the mid-November lows, the “Aussie” is now facing its first major test of structural support. Sellers have officially wrestled back short-term control, but a key Fibonacci floor stands in their way. Shift in Power: For the first time since mid-November, sellers have

Trump Media ($DJT) — best known for Truth Social — dropped a bombshell on Thursday morning, announcing a merger with TAE Technologies—a fusion power company—in a deal valued at over $6 billion. entity. The market reaction has been instant and violent. Shares of DJT were languishing near recent lows around $10.40 but have ripped higher

If someone offers you free money usually there’s a catch. However, earning small amounts of Bitcoin without buying it is possible. It just requires a trade-off. You aren’t getting money for nothing; you are trading one of three things: Hardware Power: Using your PC to process data. Time/Data: Completing learning modules or surveys. Spending Habits:

Domestic demand the main growth engine in the years ahead Savings rate should come down Gov’t expenditure on defense should underpin investment Global environment likely to remain a drag Underlying investment remains consistent with 2% medium-term target Trade tensions have eased but volatile environment a risk The euro is higher since the ECB decision but

The euro dipped on an ECB sources report with a slight dovish tilt: Policymakers had no appetite to take a rate cut off the table Policymakers expect to keep rates on hold See risks to growth and inflation as balanced Fear some lower growth outcomes This all sounds about right and shouldn’t be a big

I expect UK CPI to fall to near 2% target in April or May 2026 Policy stance is still restrictive but I expected pace of cuts to ease at some point This is perhaps less hawkish than I would have expected from the BOE statement earlier. He is still talking about rate cuts and inflation

Germany’s finance agency has just announced some of the details of the country’s debt issuance plans for next year. And most notably, the standout is the main figure in itself as Europe’s largest economy is poised to issue about €512 billion in securities in 2026. That will mark a post-war record issuance, one that even

At a glance ECB kept rates unchanged, sticking to a data-dependent, meeting-by-meeting approach as 2026 inflation projections were revised higher. Updated forecasts leaned modestly hawkish, with firmer services inflation and stronger growth reducing the likelihood of near-term rate cuts. EURUSD moved higher post-decision, reclaiming its 100-hour moving average and testing key resistance near 1.1762, a

Prior CHF 4.32 billion; revised to CHF 4.20 billion The Swiss trade surplus narrowed in November as exports were seen down 7.1% on the month while imports fell by 6.8% on the month. The Swiss numbers tend to be rather volatile, as they exclude precious metals and stones, works of art and antiques. As for

Santa Claus may have finally arrived at the New York Stock Exchange. Shares are surging today after a four-day slump. The S&P 500 is up 87 points, or 1.3% while the Nasdaq is up 1.9%. The S&P 500 has nearly wiped out yesterday’s harsh selloff. The rally has been helped along by a soft US

The USD is mixed versus the three major currency pairs—EURUSD, USDJPY, and GBPUSD—as the North American session gets underway. EURUSD is trading lower by roughly -0.22%, making it one of the bigger movers against the dollar today, alongside NZDUSD. The focus is squarely on the ECB rate decision at 8:15 AM ET, where no policy

KEY POINTS: The BoE is widely expected to cut by 25 bps bringing the Bank Rate to 3.75% vs 4.00 prior The vote split is expected to be 5-4 in favour of the rate cut, with Bailey joining the dovish camp The focus will be on the vote split and the forward guidance No press

The Bank of England has delivered the widely anticipated 25bp cut, but the pound is catching a bid as the MPC signals that the “easy” part of the easing cycle is over. GBP/USD has jumped 35 pips on the release as the market digests a decision that was a genuine nail-biter and a statement that

US equity markets are catching a massive tailwind today as a “triple threat” of positive catalysts sends indices soaring. A significant miss in the US Consumer Price Index (CPI), coupled with resilient tech earnings, has forced short-sellers to retreat and invited buyers back into the fold. Inflation Relief: US CPI cooled to 2.7% (vs. 3.1%

Canada spent weeks trying to get a deal for steel and aluminum producers in the autumn. At one point a deal looked very close and Trump even hinted that it was coming. However the deal fell apart and Trump blew up over Ontario’s tariff ads. The leaders met at the FIFA World Cup draw and

Sector Overview: Semiconductors and Communication Services Surge Todays market snapshot reveals a significant uptick in the semiconductor and communication services sectors. These sectors showcase outstanding performance, primarily driven by robust gains in several major stocks. Micron Technology (MU) leads the pack with an impressive gain of 13.02%, followed by Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) surging by

As mentioned earlier, the inflation data later is likely to overshadow major central bank decisions for today. However, it is going to be a messy one as the report is marred by the US government shutdown in October through to November. That has resulted in the BLS skipping the October report and the focus today

There are a couple to take note of on the day, as highlighted in bold below. The first ones are for EUR/USD layered in between 1.1700 through to 1.1800. And the bigger one is seen at the 1.1750 level. With market players focusing on the ECB later today, even if it is going to be

President Donald Trump has been presented with a draft manuscript by prominent constitutional lawyer Alan Dershowitz examining whether the U.S. Constitution definitively bars a president from serving a third term, reopening a long-settled legal and political debate around presidential term limits. The Wall Street Journal (gated) carries the report. According to Dershowitz, who previously represented

Recent price action presents a conflicting signal to digital asset investors. Since early November, Bitcoin has retraced 12.9%, while Solana hascorrected 17.5%. For market participants conditioned by historical volatility, these double-digit declines often serve as a warning sign that the cycle has exhausted its momentum. Despite recent price volatility, capital allocation tells a different story.

German DAX futures -0.1% French CAC 40 futures +0.1% UK FTSE futures -0.1% This follows from the modest selling yesterday, though Wall Street was hit harder as tech shares were the biggest drag. The S&P 500 closed down by 1.2% with the Nasdaq lower by 1.8%. Meanwhile, the Dow finished lower by 0.5% overnight. All

The BOE policy decision will be up first at 1200 GMT and the central bank is widely expected to cut rates by 25 bps today. That will bring the bank rate down from 4.00% to 3.75%, although the bank rate vote is the one that might intrigue. It is expected to be a close call,

The November CPI report encompasses two months and also includes some unusual seasonal or data collection factors. That’s going to make the ‘cleaner’ read as the y/y numbers, which are expected at 3.0% on both the headline and core. The BLS posted an FAQ yesterday about lack of October data collection and the trials of

Prior week 236K revised to 237K The 4-week moving average was 217,500, an increase of 500 from the previous week’s revised average. The previous week’s average was revised up by 250 from 216,750 to 217,000 Continuing claims 1.897M vs 1.930M set Prior week revised to 1.830M from 1.838M The 4-week moving average was 1,902,000, a

S&P 500 Technical Analysis with Order Flow Deep Dive The S&P 500 is entering a critical decision zone after a sharp selloff earlier in the week and a subsequent stabilization that has started to shift short-term market dynamics. While it is too early to declare a confirmed bullish reversal, recent order flow behavior suggests that

The People’s Bank of China is due to set the daily USD/CNY reference rate at around 0115 GMT (2115 US Eastern time), a fixing that remains one of the most closely watched signals in Asian foreign exchange markets. China operates a managed floating exchange rate system, under which the renminbi (yuan) is allowed to trade

The market was pricing in a 98% chance of no change in rates today so this was no surprise. Going forward, the market expects the ECB to leave rates on hold for all of 2026 so there isn’t much drama here. The euro was trading at 1.1717 ahead of the report and is up to

BoE expected to cut rates 25bp to 3.75% Inflation fell to 3.2% in November Growth and labour market weakening Services inflation remains sticky Further cuts likely limited The Bank of England is widely expected to cut interest rates at its final policy meeting of the year today, following a sharper-than-anticipated slowdown in inflation and mounting

Prior was +3.0% Core CPI 2.6% vs 3.0% expected (prior 3.0%) Core lowest since March 2021 Core goods +1.4% y/y OER at +3.4% y/y vs +3.8% prior This is surprisingly soft but there were some problems collecting the data and this will be met with skepticism. The BLS was assuming that October CPI was zero

This will be yet another unusual report release, something akin to what we saw with the labour market report earlier this week. This time around though, just be wary that the BLS will not be releasing a full report for October and so market players will have to make due with a gap between the

The People’s Bank of China’s decision to issue 40 billion yuan of 182-day central bank bills in Hong Kong on December 22 should be viewed as part of a broader effort to manage the pace of recent CNY strength. Unlike earlier episodes where offshore bill issuance was used to counter depreciation pressure, the yuan is

EUROPEAN SESSION: In the European session, the main highlights will be the BoE and ECB monetary policy decisions. The Bank of England (BoE) is widely expected to cut by 25 bps bringing the Bank Rate to 3.75% vs 4.00% prior. There’s a strong consensus that the vote split will be 5-4 in favour of the

Honda to suspend production in Japan and China Company cites ongoing chip shortages Demand conditions may also be a factor Shares fall on renewed uncertainty Output recovery risks persist Honda Motor Co. is set to suspend vehicle production across parts of Japan and China in the coming weeks, underscoring continued fragility in global automotive supply

The Bank of England delivered the expected Christmas cut, but the market reaction is anything but dovish. While the Bank Rate dropped to 3.75% from 4.00%, the pound is higher, driven by a deeply divided MPC and guidance that suggests the BoE is nearing the bottom. Cable (GBP/USD) jumped roughly 35 pips following the release,

Gold is taking a bit of a breather today but so far in December trading, it is very much sticking to the seasonal script from the past few years. Prior to December last year, gold has been on a hot streak in the final month of recent years as the precious metal posted gains in

Trump announces “warrior dividend” for service members: $1,776 payment per person before Christmas Roughly $1.8bn targeted fiscal injection Likely short-term boost to consumption Limited macro impact but strong political signal U.S. President Donald Trump said more than one million (I think the number is around 1.4mn) U.S. service members will receive a special one-off payment

While the data due from New Zealand is noted in the calendar screenshot below as high priority I want o give a small heads up on why perhaps its not that much of a priority for traders. Gross domestic product data remains a useful benchmark, but its relevance for real-time market analysis is inherently limited

End of Day Summary: Tech Rout Batters S&P 500 and Nasdaq Silver Price Analysis: XAGUSD Hits Record Highs (Up 130% in 2025) The US treasury sells $13 billion of 20 year bonds at a high yield of 4.798% What if the chart of US oil production is wrong? Oracle is getting crushed again and is

Japan signals increased vigilance on FX moves Yen weakness remains a key concern Verbal intervention used to temper speculation Long-term rates also under scrutiny No immediate policy action signalled Japan’s top government spokesman has stepped up verbal warnings on market conditions, signalling heightened official sensitivity to yen moves and rising long-term interest rates as authorities

BofA warns of building stock bubble risk but sees more upside in AI Bank of England (BoE) set to cut rates as inflation slows, but easing seen as limited US approves $10bn-plus arms sales to Taiwan, China defence stocks index hits 2 mth high Japan signals FX vigilance, leans against yen weakness with verbal intervention

The TL;DR: Morgan Stanley expects CPI to confirm firm inflation pressures Core CPI seen near 3.0% y/y in November Shelter and goods prices remain resilient Data limitations reduce monthly detail Supports cautious Fed policy outlook U.S. consumer price data due on Thursday, December 18, is expected to confirm that underlying inflation pressures remain firm, according

U.S. approves $10bn+ arms sales to Taiwan Package includes HIMARS, ATACMS, howitzers and drones Likely to inflame U.S.–China tensions China defence stocks jump on news Raises regional security risks The Trump administration has approved a sweeping package of arms sales to Taiwan valued at more than $10 billion, sharply escalating military support for the island

The Bank of Japan is widely expected to deliver a 25bp rate hike at the conclusion of its policy meeting on Friday, December 19, a move that is now almost fully priced by markets. With the outcome largely anticipated, investor attention will shift squarely to Governor Kazuo Ueda’s press conference, scheduled for 06:30 GMT (0130

Coinbase has announced its taken a significant stride toward realising its vision of becoming an “Everything Exchange,” unveiling major product expansions that embed traditional financial instruments and event-prediction markets directly into its core app. This marks a pivotal shift for the U.S.-listed crypto exchange, moving beyond solely digital assets to offer users a unified platform

Global equity markets are showing growing signs of bubble-like behaviour, but the core artificial intelligence trade still appears to have further upside, according to Bank of America Global Research. In its latest Global Equity Volatility Insights report, the bank argues that while pockets of the market are already displaying instability consistent with late-cycle excess, the

South Korea flags concern over widening FX volatility Authorities monitoring markets closely Global policy divergence cited as key risk FX intervention remains an option RBI action highlights regional playbook South Korea’s finance minister has stepped up warnings over rising foreign-exchange volatility, signalling a heightened state of alert as global monetary policy divergence continues to weigh

The People’s Bank of China (PBOC), China’s central bank, is responsible for setting the daily midpoint of the yuan (also known as renminbi or RMB). The PBOC follows a managed floating exchange rate system that allows the value of the yuan to fluctuate within a certain range, called a “band,” around a central reference rate,

Key Takeaways Tech Wreck: The Nasdaq Composite led market declines, dropping -1.78% as investors aggressively rotated out of AI and semiconductor stocks. Sector Rotation: While Technology (-2.14%) and Industrials (-1.66%) lagged, the Energy sector surged (+2.12%) alongside defensives. The AI Unwind: Major names like Nvidia, AMD, Palantir, and Oracle saw heavy selling pressure, with many

The European Central Bank is expected to leave interest rates unchanged at Thursday’s policy meeting, reinforcing the view that the easing phase has ended as the euro zone economy shows greater resilience and inflation remains anchored near target. the statement is due at 1315 GMT / 0815 US Eastern time European Central Bank President Lagarde

The Bank of Japan is expected to disappoint markets looking for clear guidance on the terminal rate when it concludes its two-day policy meeting on Friday, reinforcing the view that policy normalisation will remain cautious, conditional and highly data-dependent. Thats the view from Bank of America on the BoJ meeting today and tomorrow. While a

Key Technical & Fundamental Takeaways Record-Breaking Run: Silver has surged another 4.25% today, hitting a fresh all-time high of $66.88. The Fundamental Driver: A “perfect storm” of falling real rates, structural supply deficits, and booming industrial demand (EVs/Solar) is fueling the rally. The Trend: Silver is now up a staggering 130% year-to-date in 2025. The

TL; DR summary: New Zealand GDP rebounded more than expected in Q3 Production-based GDP rose 1.1% q/q vs 0.9% forecast Expenditure-based GDP up 1.3% q/q, also beating estimates Annual-average growth remains negative NZD reaction modest, reflecting backward-looking nature of data The investingLive economic calendar gives both the expected and priors if you’d like to keep

The broader stock indices are continuing their tumble with the: S&P index -70 points or -1.03%. NASDAQ index -350 points or -1.52%. Dow industrial average is down -200 points at -0.41%. Russell 2000 is down 1% on the day Shares of Broadcom are continuing their run to the downside since announcing earnings on Thursday of

In November, the US Energy Information Administration estimated domestic crude oil production at 13.862 million barrels per day. Not everyone believes it. Today the Dallas Fed released its latest survey of energy executives. It’s an anonymous survey so we don’t know who said what but this comment turned some heads: There is no way that

Key Technical Takeaways The Resistance Cluster: USDJPY is currently pinned against a critical resistance zone defined by the 100-hour MA (155.62) and the 4-hour 100-bar MA (155.675). The Foundation: The rally was triggered after buyers successfully defended a major swing support area between 154.33 and 154.472 during yesterday’s session and early Asian trading. The Bullish

The U.S. Treasury sold $13 billion of 20 year bonds at a high yield of WI level at the time of the auction 4.799% Tail -0.1 bps vs 6 month average of -0.5 bps Bid to cover 2.67X vs 6 month average of 2.65X Dealers 12.57 vs 6 month average of 11.0% Directs 22.24% vs

KEY POINTS: US unemployment rate surprises to the upside Higher probabilities we see another Fed rate cut sooner than expected The stock market remains supported by the Fed’s dovish reaction function US CPI coming up tomorrow FUNDAMENTAL OVERVIEW We finally got the most recent US jobs report yesterday, and the data surprised to the downside.

Eurostoxx +0.2% Germany DAX +0.2% France CAC 40 +0.1% UK FTSE +0.8% Spain IBEX +0.4% Italy FTSE MIB +0.4% The overall market mood is a calmer one with US futures also holding slightly higher on the day thus far. S&P 500 futures are up 0.1% as investors are resting on a steadier tone after the

Risk appetite continues to deteriorate in the stock market, led by some of the highest-flying tech names. It’s likely year-end profit taking but could also reflect some reconsiderations around the AI trader, particularly as Google releases Gemini 3.0 flash and it scores as well as some of the top-line models from others. AUD/USD is always

tradeCompass Key Price Levels for S&P 500 Futures, with orderFlow Intel This S&P 500 analysis focuses on how yesterday’s order flow structure continues to shape today’s trade dynamics. Rather than treating today as a clean reset, orderFlow Intel shows that the market is still working through an unfinished auction from the prior session. As a

Key Technical Takeaways Successful Defense: Gold buyers successfully defended the 100-hour moving average yesterday, using the dip as a buying opportunity to reignite the uptrend. Current Momentum: The precious metal is trading up roughly $37 (+0.85%) on the day at $4338.31, with intraday highs reaching $4349.50. Immediate Upside Targets: Bulls are now focused on breaking

Waller has taken a really bearish turn on the economy. The other Fed candidates are arguing for rate cuts based on productivity but he’s arguing for them based on a poor economy. 2026 could turn out to be a better year for economy, hopes that helps job market Inflation is above target but should come

The reversal in Oracle shares this year is one for the history books. The company was an AI high-flyer for much of the year in a March to $250 from $170. Then it had a spike for the ages in September after announcing earnings. If you ever needed a lesson on how quickly the AI

The UK CPI report here earlier today underwhelmed, missing on estimates as price pressures were softer than expected in November. That solidified the conviction for a BOE rate cut this week but also fanned the flames for a potentially quicker move in following that up for next year. As such, that’s putting pressure on the

U.S. stocks ended the day mostly lower, with a defensive tone creeping back into the market as investors remained selective and cautious. The Dow led the decline, weighed down by cyclical and industrial names, while small caps also underperformed, reflecting ongoing uncertainty around growth and rates. Tech held up better, helping the Nasdaq finish modestly

Fed Chair candidates are falling over themselves to explain how inflation really isn’t 2.8% y/y, as it was in the most-recent PCE report. They’re stripping out rent and portfolio management fees and tariffs to say that inflation is basically on target. “Tariffs are not a source of persistent inflation,” candidate Chris Waller said today. This

Prior was -1812K Gasoline +4808K vs +2062K exp Distillates +1712K vs +1178K exp There was a huge draw in the private data released yesterday, so ‘expectations’ were for something more-bullish than the consensus. Crude -9300K Gasoline -4800K Distillates +2500K As a result, we’re getting some selling pressure on oil after the data. This is an

Introduction: What Is Forex? Forex, short for foreign exchange, is the global market where currencies are traded. It is the biggest and most active financial market globally, with more than $7.5 trillion traded every day (Bank for International Settlements, 2022). Unlike equity markets that have specific opening and closing times, the forex market operates 24

It’s a tough time of year to try and make sense of market moves but I suspect we’re seeing profit taking and position squaring into year end. Some of the high-flying power-generation stocks are getting beaten up today and Oracle continues to crater. We also saw Tesla hitting all-time highs this week, which I suspect

Key Technical Takeaways Bearish Shift: The AUDUSD is undergoing a downside correction as sellers gain short-term market control. Critical Zone Breached: Price has fallen back below the historically significant 0.66247–0.6635 swing area on the 4-hour chart. Hourly Resistance Stacked: The 100 and 200-hour moving averages near 0.6644 are now acting as a dynamic ceiling for

Prior +3.6% Core CPI +3.2% vs +3.4% y/y expected Prior +3.4% That is an unexpected miss, especially on the core estimate which is the lowest since January. This will just solidify a rate cut by the BOE for this week but also put pressure on perhaps more rate cuts to come if the central bank

KEY POINTS: The RBI decided to intervene after the recent selloff in the Indian Rupee The US unemployment rate surprised to the upside USDINR remains skewed to the upside, buyers will look for key technical breaks US CPI coming up tomorrow FUNDAMENTAL OVERVIEW USD: We finally got the most recent US jobs report yesterday, and

The machine shown in this picture is probably the most-important one in the world. It’s from Dutch company ASML and it’s used to fabricate the most-precise computer chips. Last year, the US began restricting their use and export into China. Naturally, that caused some panic in Beijing and the country’s resources were marshalled at building

Headlines: UK November CPI +3.2% v +3.5% y/y expected British Pound drops across the board as UK inflation surprises to the downside GBP/USD on the rocks after softer UK inflation data today UK FTSE 100 Technical Analysis: Soft UK CPI boosts the stock market, BoE rate cut bets Japan bond yields continue to surge higher

Consumer confidence jumps to 96.5 from 90.9 in Q3. That’s a good sign for spending in New Zealand and highlights upside risks to rates and the kiwi. This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

Waymo, Alphabet’s autonomous driving subsidiary, is in early-stage discussions to raise more than $15bn in fresh capital at a valuation approaching $100bn, underscoring renewed investor confidence in the long-term commercial potential of robotaxi technology. The funding round is expected to be led by Alphabet itself, with participation from external investors, according to people familiar with

Sector Overview Today’s stock market heatmap reveals a mix of performances across different sectors, with particular focus on fluctuations within the technology and consumer cyclical spaces. 📉 Technology Sector: The technology sector displays variegated movements. Notably, Oracle (ORCL) faces a significant drop of 2.82%, possibly driven by recent earnings or macroeconomic factors affecting tech valuations.

Key Takeaways 100-Hour MA Breach: For the first time since late November, USDCAD buyers have pushed the price above the 100-hour moving average (1.3768), snapping a streak of 5 failed attempts. The Next Major Hurdle: The recovery is facing stiff resistance near the 1.3800 level and the falling 200-hour moving average (1.38055). Neutral Bias: While

KEY POINTS: Oil fell to the lowest level since 2021 yesterday following soft US jobs report A major breakdown was avoided as Trump ordered a total blockade on sanctioned Venezuelan oil tankers Prices rose further this morning following the news that the US was reading new Russia sanctions if Putin rejected the peace deal GEOPOLITICAL

Today’s Japanese trade and investment data are reinforcing expectations that the Bank of Japan is poised to deliver a 25 basis point rate hike this week, as signs of economic recovery continue to build following last quarter’s contraction. Japan’s exports rose for a third consecutive month in November, climbing 6.1% year on year and comfortably

USD firmer into the NA session, supported by weaker UK inflation and higher US yields, with EURUSD edging lower to 1.1714, holding above 1.1700 and key midpoint support ahead of an ECB decision expected to leave rates unchanged with a data-dependent tone. USDJPY softer at 155.45, trading between the 4-hour 200-bar (155.265) and 100-bar (155.700)

Japanese trade and capex-indicative data (machine orders data are a leading indicator of capital spending in the coming six to nine months. It’s a volatile data set.): Further on the trade data: Exports to China -2.4% year/year Exports to Asia +4.5% year/year Exports to US +8.8% year/year Exports to EU +19.6% year/year The exports numbers

Westpac Economics has pushed back against growing market talk of renewed tightening, arguing the Reserve Bank of Australia is more likely to remain on hold throughout 2026, even as inflation returns to target later next year. In contrast to calls from Citi and NAB for two rate hikes in 2026, and CBA’s forecast for a

Comments in an essay from Bostic: continues to view price stability as the most pressing risk facing FOMC it is unclear whether the labor market is significantly out of balance Expects inflation to remain above 2.5% even at the end of 2026. Sees little to suggest price pressures will dissipate before mid-to-late 2026 at the

In an earlier post I noted that U.S. President Donald Trump has ordered what he described as a “total and complete blockade” of all sanctioned oil tankers entering or leaving Venezuela, sharply escalating Washington’s confrontation with President Nicolás Maduro’s government and injecting fresh geopolitical risk into global energy markets. In a post on Truth Social,

KEY POINTS: UK CPI Y/Y 3.2% vs 3.5% expected UK Core CPI Y/Y 3.2% vs 3.4% expected Food and non-alcoholic beverages, and alcohol and tobacco made the largest downward contributions The pound dropped across the board as traders increased BoE rate cut bets The UK FTSE 100 surged The BoE is expected to cut by

China’s prolonged economic slowdown is emerging as a growing headwind for bulk commodities, with UBS and Commonwealth Bank both warning that iron ore prices face increasing downside risks as demand weakens and new supply comes online. Despite a resilient performance so far this year, iron ore prices are looking increasingly vulnerable. UBS highlights a deterioration

German DAX futures +0.2% French CAC 40 futures +0.2% UK FTSE futures +0.3% This follows from the modest declines yesterday, with Wall Street also reflecting a more mixed picture. Tech shares were the ones leading the charge yesterday with the Nasdaq closing 0.2% higher but the Dow closed 0.6% lower instead. There’s still a lot

A lot of anticipation is riding on the BOJ this week with the Japanese central bank set to deliver one of, if not the last major key risk event for the year. A rate hike is well anticipated at this point as the BOJ looks to have won the battle in the first round against

Prior +2.1% Core CPI +2.4% vs +2.4% y/y prelim Prior +2.4% The important point of the release is that core annual inflation is seen steady at 2.4%, unchanged from October. The main sticking point in terms of inflation pressures is still Germany and that represents a headache for the ECB, with it being the region’s

Prior 88.1; revised to 88.0 Current conditions index 85.6 vs 85.8 expected Prior 85.6 Expectations index 89.7 vs 90.5 expected Prior 90.6; revised to 90.5 The headline reading is softer than estimated with the current conditions and expectations index also missing on estimates. The decline in German business sentiment towards the end of the year

KEY POINTS: The UK CPI data surprised to the downside across the board Traders are now betting on two more rate cuts in 2026 The BoE is expected to cut by 25 bps tomorrow but could sound more dovish UK FTSE 100 surged on the soft inflation data as rate cuts boost the stock market

There are just a couple to take note of on the day, as highlighted in bold below. And they are for EUR/USD at the 1.1700 and 1.1750 levels. As things stand, the expiries are sandwiching the current spot price and so will have the potential to act as bookends to price action in the session

That figure is 10.4% higher year-on-year, with visitors from China even showing a marginal growth of 3% in November. For some context, the year-to-date visitor arrivals for Japan has breached 39 million in 2025 – well exceeding the total for 2024 already, which was 36.87 million. As a reminder, China and Japan are engaged in

The end of the year is often considered the ideal time to rebalance a portfolio, both from a tax perspective and because it is easier to assess the performance of assets relative to the target allocation and identify any resulting imbalances. But what if the idea was to build a portfolio from scratch based on

U.S. President Donald Trump is expected to sign an executive order as soon as this week that would accelerate the reclassification of cannabis under federal law and formally recognise its medical value for the first time, according to people familiar with the plans. The move would mark a significant shift in U.S. drug policy, though

EUROPEAN SESSION: In the European session, the main highlight was the UK CPI report. The data surprised to the downside across the board weighing on the pound and boosting the UK stock market. The BoE is widely expected to cut by 25 bps tomorrow bringing the Bank Rate to 3.75%, but following the soft employment

Japan must raise neutral rate of interest via fiscal policy, growth strategy If Japan’s neutral rate rises as a result of fiscal policy, it would be natural for BOJ to hike rates But for now BOJ should avoid premature rate hike, excessive monetary tightening Sanaenomics carries over elements of Abenomics but focuses more on strengthening

CIBC notes that the non-farm payrolls release yesterday reflected further softness in US labour market conditions. Adding that while payrolls gained by 64k in November, it comes after a sharp decline of 105k in October which effectively erases the gains from September. Besides that, the three-month average job growth has cooled further to 22k and

The People’s Bank of China is due to set the daily USD/CNY reference rate at around 0115 GMT (2115 US Eastern time), a fixing that remains one of the most closely watched signals in Asian foreign exchange markets. China operates a managed floating exchange rate system, under which the renminbi (yuan) is allowed to trade

Japan’s persistently weak yen is emerging as the decisive factor that could allow the Bank of Japan and the government to align behind a long-awaited rate hike this month, according to an analysis by Alicia Garcia Herrero (twitter @Aligarciaherrer) Despite concerns around U.S. tariffs and broader geopolitical risks, Japan’s economy has proved more resilient than

Morgan Stanley estimates that UK headline annual CPI will come in at 3.4% in November, with the core annual reading being at 3.3%. That’s slightly under the consensus estimate from analysts of 3.5% for the former and 3.4% for the latter. But with both numbers set to keep above 3%, the firm notes that it

Goldman Sachs expects the Federal Reserve could be more open to further interest-rate cuts next year than markets previously assumed, following this week’s policy easing and a notably cautious tone from Chair Jerome Powell on labour-market risks (for example: investingLive Americas market news wrap : US unemployment rate rises to four-year high). Josh Schiffrin, chief

USD/INR has plunged, with the rupee up around 1% after the central bank of India intervened by selling USD/INR into the forex market. more to comeI’ve been posting in recent days on the Indian rupee trading at fresh record lows, as a deteriorating global risk backdrop compounds persistent flow imbalances that continued to weigh heavily

The People’s Bank of China (PBOC), China’s central bank, is responsible for setting the daily midpoint of the yuan (also known as renminbi or RMB). The PBOC follows a managed floating exchange rate system that allows the value of the yuan to fluctuate within a certain range, called a “band,” around a central reference rate,

I wrote about Comcast yesterday as it was one of the top-10 picks from Barron’s for 2026. It looks like the market is taking a closer look at the cable giant and liking what it sees. Shares are up 4.1% and it’s the best performer on the S&P 500 in an otherwise sluggish day. Some

India’s central bank is signalling that interest rates are likely to remain low for an extended period, even as policymakers assess the potential growth impact from evolving U.S. trade arrangements. Reserve Bank of India Governor Sanjay Malhotra said recent projections suggest policy settings should remain low for a long period of time, according to comments

Economists have upgraded their outlook for Singapore’s economy in 2025, reflecting stronger-than-expected momentum this year, while continuing to expect monetary policy to remain on hold at the Monetary Authority of Singapore’s (MAS) next review in January. According to the MAS quarterly survey of forecasters, median growth expectations for 2025 have been lifted to 4.1%, a

Reserve Bank of India FX intervention to support the rupee Singapore central bank (MAS) survey shows stronger 2025 growth, policy seen on hold Singapore exports beat expectations as electronics and pharma lift NODX China slowdown raises downside risks for AUD and Australian assets Strong exports lift BoJ hike odds as Japan recovery gathers pace –

US November non-farm payrolls +64K vs +50K expected US Retail sales for October rises by 0.0% versus 0.1% estimate S&P Global flash manufacturing PMI December 51.8 versus 52.0 estimate Fed’s Bostic warns against too much monetary policy easing New Zealand consumer confidence jumps in the fourth quarter Hassett jumps back into the lead as the

Singapore’s non-oil domestic exports (NODX) delivered a stronger-than-expected performance in November, reinforcing signs that the city-state’s trade cycle remains firmly in recovery mode as global demand stabilises. Official data released by Enterprise Singapore showed NODX rose 11.6% year on year, comfortably beating market expectations for a 7.0% increase. The headline gain was supported by both

New Zealand’s current account position deteriorated sharply in the September quarter, with the headline deficit blowing out to NZ$8.37bn, far wider than market expectations and a marked worsening from the prior quarter’s NZ$1.30bn shortfall. While the seasonally adjusted deficit was more modest at NZ$3.78bn, it still edged wider, underscoring ongoing external imbalance pressures in the

Silver prices have surged to fresh record highs, a dramatic reflection of evolving market dynamics that are pushing the industrial metal well beyond historical norms. In trading today, spot silver reached an intraday peak above US$65 per ounce, eclipsing previous records and marking one of the strongest rallies among commodities in 2025. The rally has

The betting market is almost certain the next Fed Chairman will be named Kevin, it’s just not sure which one. Kevin Hassett and Kevin Warsh appear to be the finalists based on Trump’s comments. There has been a push for current Fed Governor Chris Waller but that doesn’t appear to gaining traction. Yesterday, the odds

Key takeaways for the EURJPY technically Correction Mode: EURJPY has broken below the 100-hour (182.39) and 200-hour (181.87) moving averages. Risk Defined: Sellers finally have a clear resistance zone at 182.00–182.39 to lean against. Next Target: A sustained move lower targets the 180.08 support level. EURJPY’s historic rally: the backdrop The EURJPY has been trading

Ethereum Futures Technical Analysis – Bear Flag in Control, Key Junctions to Watch Key takeaways (2-minute read): Ethereum futures broke down from an ascending channel, activating a bear flag structure. Price rejected a retest of the former uptrend, reinforcing bearish control for now. A confirmed bullish reversal requires a clean breakout above the red channel.

Tesla is facing renewed regulatory scrutiny in California after an administrative law judge ruled that the company engaged in deceptive marketing practices related to its Autopilot and Full Self-Driving (FSD) driver-assistance systems. The judge found that Tesla’s descriptions of the technologies could mislead consumers about their capabilities and recommended suspending the company’s license to sell

Via Reuters comes the report that import volumes at the Port of Los Angeles, the busiest seaport in the United States, fell sharply in November as the impact of U.S. tariff policy rippled through global supply chains. The port reported an 11.5% year-on-year decline in imports, handling 406,421 twenty-foot equivalent units (TEUs), after companies front-loaded

Trump is posting on his social media account. Verbatim: Venezuela is completely surrounded by the largest Armada ever assembled in the History of South America. It will only get bigger, and the shock to them will be like nothing they have ever seen before — Until such time as they return to the United States

Tesla shares surged to a fresh all-time high as investors rallied around renewed optimism that the company is nearing a long-promised breakthrough in autonomous driving. The move lifted Tesla’s market capitalisation to around $1.63 trillion, cementing its position among the world’s most valuable publicly traded companies. The immediate catalyst was confirmation from CEO Elon Musk

The data from a private telegram channel. It seems many of the oil folks have shut up shop for the holidays, hence the delay in getting this data to you. — This data point is from a privately-conducted survey by the American Petroleum Institute (API). It’s a survey of oil storage facilities and companies The

White House economic adviser Kevin Hassett has emerged as a leading contender to replace Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell when his term ends in May, but his candidacy is drawing mixed reactions within the Trump administration, according to POLITICO. Hassett, who currently leads the National Economic Council, is viewed by supporters as a respected economist

Japanese data is the focus of the calendar. The trade and machine orders info we’ll get today are not top-tier data, but its all goes into the mix. – The trade data is expected to be encouraging, showing strength in November better than that in October for both exports and imports. – Japan core machine

Nasdaq is planning to submit paperwork with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission on Monday in an application for 23-hour weekday trading, according to a Reuters report late yesterday. This pains me because it’s unhealthy for traders, and potentially the market. There is something to be said for the ability to stop and think at

ECB rate decision ahead as policy divergence narrows between the ECB and Fed The ECB rate decision later this week is widely expected to result in no change in policy, with markets viewing the central bank as already near the lower end of its easing cycle. Recent comments from ECB President Christine Lagarde, as highlighted

Eurostoxx -0.3% Germany DAX -0.6% France CAC 40 -0.2% UK FTSE -0.1% Spain IBEX -0.1% Italy FTSE MIB -0.1% The market mood is leaning towards the defensive side today, with watchful eyes on key US data later in the day. There is a lot of anticipation on the latest update/snapshot of the US economy, even

Summary of the comments from WH Economic Advisor Kevin Hassett:NEC Director Kevin Hassett said there is plenty of room to cut interest rates, arguing that US rates are out of touch with the rest of the world, even as he described the underlying jobs trajectory as solid, noting recent data were distorted by the government

Key bullet points for the USDINR India’s fundamentals remain a drag on the rupee, with flash PMIs falling to the lowest since February, muted inflation opening the door to further RBI cuts, and US-India trade talks lacking a near-term breakthrough. With USDINR at record highs, Fibonacci extensions are guiding upside targets, with key levels at

BOC Gov. Tiff Macklem is speaking at the Chamber of Commerce of Metropolitan Montréal. Economic outlook and policy backdrop 2025 was defined by rising protectionism, particularly from the US, which has disrupted global trade and undermined trust in Canada’s largest trading relationship. Uncertainty remains elevated, especially from tariffs on steel, aluminum, autos, and lumber, weighing

Key points AUDUSD remains range-bound between 0.6400 and 0.6700, with price currently trading near the upper end of the range. Buyers defended key support at 0.6617 and the 0.66247–0.6635 swing area, keeping the short-term bias modestly bullish. Failure to hold above this support zone would signal a failed breakout, likely leading to deeper corrective downside.

The People’s Bank of China is due to set the daily USD/CNY reference rate at around 0115 GMT (2115 US Eastern time), a fixing that remains one of the most closely watched signals in Asian foreign exchange markets. China operates a managed floating exchange rate system, under which the renminbi (yuan) is allowed to trade

Fundamental backdrop: mixed US data weighs on the dollar The USDCAD moved lower following a heavy US data dump, with the October jobs report showing a decline, followed by a rebound in November, a pattern heavily distorted by the recent government shutdown. At the same time, October retail sales were unchanged at the headline level,

It’s been a long wait for the return of US economic data but we are finally here with November non-farm payrolls and October retail sales due at the bottom of the hour. The jobs report is the most up-to-date and the most meaningful. I wonder if the Fed got a nod that it was going

From the Atlanta Fed: The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the third quarter of 2025 is 3.5 percent on December 16, down from 3.6 percent on December 11. After this morning’s releases from the US Census Bureau and US Bureau of Labor Statistics, the contributions of consumer spending

The tone around the ceasefire talks in Ukraine genuinely appears to be improving. We’ve been here before so it’s tough to say whether this is real progress on yet-another headfake. Only time will tell but Trump’s comments today are encouraging: Good conversation with European leaders Long discussion, and things are seemingly going well Had a

The flash S&P Global manufacturing and services PMI data for December is out and shows weakness: Prior month manufacturing 52.2 Manufacturing flash PMI 51.8 versus 52.0 estimate Services PMI flash 52.9 versus 54.0 estimate. Prior month 54.1.. Composite index 53.0 versus 54.2 last month Below is a chart of the composite PMI compared to GDP

KEY POINTS: Expects new Fed chair announcement in early January US Supreme Court ruling on tariffs also expected in early January Says Warsh and Hassett both very qualified for the job Expects substantial drop in inflation in the first half of 2026 US-China relations remain positive US Treasury Secretary, Scott Bessent, spoke in a Fox

Long stocks and gold are the most crowded trades according to BofA’s survey USDINR Technical Analysis: Key resistance reached, US NFP in focus next Eurozone October trade balance €18.4 billion vs €19.4 billion prior Germany December ZEW survey current conditions -81.0 vs -80.0 expected Major currencies little changed, eyes on US data UK December flash

Prior 51.3 Manufacturing PMI 51.2 vs 50.4 expected Prior 50.2 Composite PMI 52.1 vs 51.6 expected Prior 51.2 These are nice beats, but the commentary isn’t as good. The agency cites lacklustre growth, worryingly widespread job losses and renewed upturn in selling price inflation across both goods and services. It keeps the BoE on track

September was 119K October was -105K (just released) Unemployment rate 4.6% vs 4.4% expected Prior unemployment rate 4.4% Participation rate 62.5% vs 62.4% prior U6 underemployment rate 8.7% vs 8.0% prior Average hourly earnings +0.1% m/m vs +0.3% expected Average hourly earnings +3.5% y/y vs +3.6% expected Average weekly hours 34.3 vs 34.2 expected Change

Goldman Sachs has raised its 2026 copper price forecast, citing a lower likelihood that the United States will impose refined copper tariffs in the first half of the year, as affordability concerns take precedence despite ongoing supply tightness. In a note published Monday, the investment bank lifted its 2026 average price forecast to US$11,400 per

The latest Bank of America fund manager survey is out and it’s concerning news if you’re long stocks. Sentiment is overly bullish. The survey has been going since 1999 and the allocation to cash at 3.3% is the lowest ever. Take a look at the history here. We are now well below the “sell signal”

WTI crude is below the April 9 low of $55.12 as today’s rout extends. Oil is down $1.75 on the day at $55.08, which is the worst since April 2021. The market is sensing a growing chance of peace in Ukraine, something that will allow Russian oil to flow more freely. There are also persistent

KEY POINTS: USDINR reaches a new record high as the bearish INR trend persists The pair rallied into a key resistance zone where we have the 91.00 handle and the upper bound of the channel USD remains weak against major currencies India’s Flash PMIs ease further All eyes on the US NFP report today FUNDAMENTAL

Introduction Traders are bracing for what is arguably one of the most critical trading weeks of the year, filled with important macroeconomic data releases and policy announcements that will almost certainly trigger elevated volatility across major currency pairs, equities, and commodities. Global financial markets will have to digest a massive backlog of U.S. labour data,

Sector Overview The US stock market is showcasing a mixed bag today, with tech giants facing pressure while other sectors reveal brighter spots. Within the technology sector, notable players like Google (GOOGL) have slipped by 0.96%, reflecting broader concerns in internet and content information companies. However, Oracle (ORCL) has managed a slight gain of 0.28%,

Prior 53.6 Manufacturing PMI 49.2 vs 49.9 expected Prior 49.6 Composite PMI 51.9 vs 52.7 expected Prior 52.8 After the downcast from the German numbers, this was well expected. Both the services and manufacturing prints are softer than estimated, pushing down overall activity in the euro area for December. That said, it still marks another

In life, no matter what we do, there always comes the inevitable moment of reckoning—a time when performance is measured, and results are tallied. It might be your boss during an annual performance review, your coach analysing your season’s stats, or a professor handing back an exam paper. In our case, it is our clients

The US business inventories and retail inventories ex-auto for September 2025 (old data) shows: Business inventories +0.2% versus 0.1% estimate Retail inventories ex-auto 0.0% versus 0.0% last month Details from the Census Bureau: Sales: $1,947.5B in September, unchanged vs August (±0.1%), but up 3.7% YoY, pointing to steady nominal demand despite slower monthly momentum. Inventories:

Ford Motor is taking a major step back from its electric-vehicle ambitions, announcing roughly US$19.5 billion in charges largely tied to its loss-making EV operations, as the automaker pivots toward hybrids, extended-range vehicles and conventional gasoline models amid weakening EV demand. The Wall Street Journal with the info. In brief: The impairment is among the

Retail Sales data for the month of October 2025 from the US Census Bureau Prior month retail sales (September) 0.2% revised to 0.1% Retail sales for the month of October 0.0% versus 0.1% estimate. Retail sales ex autos 0.4% vs 0.3% expected. Prior month 0.3% revised lower to 0.1% Retail sales ex autos and gas

Prior 1.2% HICP +1.1% vs +1.1% y/y prelim Prior +1.3% Slight delay in the release by the source. Core annual inflation is seen slowing down from 1.9% to 1.7% in November, so that’s something to at least take note of. That said, the sticking point for inflation for the ECB is still very much the

As North America gets underway, the three major currency pairs are showing modest but important technical signals ahead of the US nonfarm payroll data which will be released at 8:30 AM. Also scheduled for release is US retail sales, and later the flash PMI data for the month of December. The jobs in retail sales

Early downside move tests key support The USDJPY moved lower during the Asia-Pacific session, briefly breaking below the 200-bar moving average on the 4-hour chart at 155.29. That downside probe echoed last Thursday’s price action, when the pair also slipped below the same moving average, only to quickly rotate higher. In that prior move, upside

With over 6 million users across more than 100 countries, RedotPay is disrupting traditional fintech by leveraging blockchain rails to deliver the best product experience to users globally Payment volume nearly tripled year-on-year with more than 3 million new users joining the platform in 2025 through November New investment led by Goodwater Capital, with participation

The United States has suspended a recently agreed technology partnership with Britain, injecting fresh uncertainty into the transatlantic relationship as Washington presses London for broader trade concessions beyond the tech sector. According to reporting by the Financial Times, the U.S. administration halted progress on the so-called Tech Prosperity Deal last week, despite the agreement having

The Indian rupee is set to open at fresh record lows, as a deteriorating global risk backdrop compounds persistent flow imbalances that continue to weigh heavily on the currency. Info via Reuters. One-month non-deliverable forward pricing suggests USD/INR will open in the 90.80–90.85 range, extending losses after the rupee closed at 90.73 on Monday. The

KEY POINTS: Long Mag 7 is the most crowded trade for 54% of participants Long gold takes the second spot at 29% Global investors are the most bullish in 3 and a half years due to “run it hot” macro and policy expectations Allocation to stocks and commodities at the highest since 2022 BofA says

US suspends UK tech deal amid wider trade tensions (earlier Financial Times report) Indian rupee fresh record lows on flow pressure CBA sees February RBA rate hike as growth runs hot. Citi & NAB also expect February hike. NAB sees RBA hiking twice in 2026, clashing with market expectations for extended hold China eyes pragmatic

Prior -78.7 Economic sentiment 45.8 vs 38.7 expected Prior 38.5 The current conditions index might show a slight decline but there is a major beat on the expectations outlook. So, that really outweighs the headline reading here. ZEW notes that expectations have become more positive and that chances for a recovery of the economy are

Nasdaq is preparing to take a major step toward round-the-clock equity trading, as Wall Street accelerates plans to meet surging global demand for U.S. stocks, according to a Reuters exclusive. The exchange operator said it will submit paperwork to the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission seeking approval to extend weekday trading hours to 23 hours

So, what’d I miss during the break? 😉 There was no shortage of action in markets in the past week, not least with the Fed delivering one final 25 bps rate cut to wrap up the year. Now, the race for Fed chair is also reportedly heating up with Kevin Warsh pipped to be the

Prior €19.4 billion; revised to €18.4 billion Compared to the month of October last year, exports to the US are seen down nearly 15% this October while imports are up just a little over 4%. That sees the trade surplus with the US narrow in October this year to €11.2 billion with it being €19.5

German DAX futures -0.6% UK FTSE futures -0.4% This mirrors the mood in US futures as well as carrying over the negative tone from Asia. The Nikkei closed down by 1.6% and S&P 500 futures are now down 0.6% on the day as tech shares continue to lag. Nasdaq futures are down 0.8% currently. Concerns

New Zealand’s government has signalled a prolonged period of fiscal strain, with updated forecasts showing no return to a budget surplus over the next five years, as Finance Minister Nicola Willis doubled down on spending restraint while acknowledging the economy’s fragile recovery. Speaking alongside the release of the half-year economic and fiscal update, Willis struck

Australia’s economy is increasingly exhibiting conditions consistent with further monetary tightening, leading Commonwealth Bank economists to forecast a 25 basis point Reserve Bank of Australia rate hike in February, despite market scepticism around near-term action. I posted earlier on another two calls for a February rate hike: Citi forecasts 2 RBA rate hikes in 2026,

Prior 51.4 Manufacturing PMI 50.6 vs 48.1 expected Prior 47.8 Composite PMI 50.1 vs 50.3 expected Prior 50.4 It’s a polarising release with the French services sector slumping in December while the manufacturing sector posts a beat on activity. At the balance though, it still leads to a bit of a drag to the French

Major US stock indices are closing lower. The NASDAQ is down for the 3rd consecutive day. The Dow industrial average and the S&P indices are down for the 2nd consecutive day. A snapshot of the closing levels shows: Dow industrial average down 41.31 points or -0.09% at 48416.74 S&P index -10.89 points or -0.16% at

Prior 48.2 Services PMI 52.6 vs 53.0 expected Prior 53.1 Composite PMI 51.5 vs 52.4 expected Prior 52.4 This is in contrast to the better than expected French PMIs. In fact, the gains seen in the euro following the French release got erased. Overall, this doesn’t change anything for the ECB though. The central bank

It’s a quiet one so far today with the dollar holding steadier at the balance, after some struggles in the past week. A stronger Chinese yuan continues to act as a headwind for the greenback, with USD/CNY on the verge of 7.04 today. The onshore yuan is at its highest against the dollar since October

We’re seeing a more cautious mood ahead of European trading, with Asian stocks and US futures holding lower today. The Nikkei is down 1.3% after a more sluggish showing by tech shares in Wall Street yesterday. Nvidia might’ve ended up 0.7% higher but AI stocks in general continue to wobble in the early stages this

Australia’s private sector continued to expand in December, although momentum eased, according to the latest flash PMI data from S&P Global, pointing to a softer but still resilient end to 2025 for the economy. The headline S&P Global Flash Australia Composite PMI Output Index eased to 51.1 in December from 52.6 in November, marking the

The People’s Bank of China (PBOC), China’s central bank, is responsible for setting the daily midpoint of the yuan (also known as renminbi or RMB). The PBOC follows a managed floating exchange rate system that allows the value of the yuan to fluctuate within a certain range, called a “band,” around a central reference rate,