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China kept its benchmark lending rates unchanged for a sixth straight month in November, in line with market expectations and reflecting policymakers’ preference for stability amid uneven economic conditions. The one-year loan prime rate (LPR) — the reference for most corporate and household borrowing — remained at 3.0%, while the five-year LPR, which guides mortgage […]

Barclays has lifted its year-end 2026 target for the S&P 500, citing continued strength in megacap technology and support from easier monetary policy. The bank now expects the index to reach 7,400, up from its previous 7,000 call. The info comes via a Reuters piece. Barclays also raised its 2026 S&P 500 earnings forecast to

Traders/markets are bracing for Nvidia (NVDA) Q3 earnings after the close, and the stakes couldn’t be higher. With the stock heavily weighted in major indices, this report will likely dictate the short-term direction of the entire tech sector (and arguably the market). THE NUMBERS TO BEAT (Consensus Estimates): Revenue: $54.9 Billion (Implies +56% YoY growth.

China is considering a fresh round of property-market support measures as the sector’s downturn continues to threaten financial stability, according to people familiar with internal discussions. Policymakers, including the housing ministry, are reviewing proposals such as nationwide mortgage subsidies for first-time buyers, larger income-tax rebates for mortgage holders, and lower transaction costs for home purchases.

The weird thing about trading is that one of the best indications you can get is from sentiment but it’s almost always better to go against it. So much of what you’re trying to do is gauge sentiment. When markets are complacent or fearful, it’s the best point to buy. When markets are euphoric, it’s

The IMF has warned that Australia needs a sweeping tax overhaul to stabilise surging public debt, which is projected to exceed $1 trillion at the federal level alongside fast-rising state liabilities. In its annual review, the Fund called for reintroducing a mining tax, lifting the GST tax rate (GST is an Australian VAT), removing selected

The major US stock indices are closing positive on the day with the NASDAQ index the best performer. Nvidia earnings will be announced at 4:20 PM ET. Expectations are for EPS of $1.26 on revenues of $54.9 billion (click here). A snapshot of the closing levels shows: Dow industrial average rose 47 103 points or

EUR/USD • 1.1500 – €2.05bn • 1.1630 – €1.19bn • 1.1600 – €1.07bn USD/JPY • 155.00 – $1.49bn • 150.00 – $1.3bn AUD/USD • 0.6550 – AUD739.4m • 0.6500 – AUD736.7m • 0.6530 – AUD422.4m GBP/USD • 1.3250 – £679m • 1.2800 – £597.2m • 1.2750 – £567.7m NZD/USD • 0.5675 – NZD300m EUR/GBP •

It’s a sparse data calendar for the session here today. Chinese prime rates will be set by the PBoC today. LPRs are no longer as important as they once were. The People’s Bank of China (PBOC) shifted its primary monetary policy tool to the seven-day reverse repurchase agreement (reverse repo) rate. This transition began in

Nvidia earning after the close. What are traders/analysts expecting? FOMC Minutes: Many indicated it’s likely be appropriate to keep the target range unchanged It’s not a good sign when they talk about an ‘everything rally’ US sells 20-year bonds at 4.706% vs 4.704% WI Ukraine peace plan would surrender Donbas and halve its armed forces

Nvidia executives struck an extraordinarily bullish tone on the company’s long-term AI outlook during the earnings call, revealing unprecedented forward visibility on next-generation chip demand while acknowledging that geopolitical frictions continue to constrain business in China. CFO Colette Kress told analysts that Nvidia currently has line-of-sight to $500 billion in Blackwell and Rubin revenue from

Australia’s central bank warned that monthly inflation data is too volatile to interpret in isolation, with RBA Assistant Governor Sarah Hunter stressing that policymakers will “not be jumping at one month of data” as they assess whether the current 3.6% cash rate is sufficiently restrictive to steer inflation back to target. Speaking in Sydney, Hunter

The People’s Bank of China (PBOC), China’s central bank, is responsible for setting the daily midpoint of the yuan (also known as renminbi or RMB). The PBOC follows a managed floating exchange rate system that allows the value of the yuan to fluctuate within a certain range, called a “band,” around a central reference rate,

Australia’s banking regulator has cautioned the country’s major lenders against loosening mortgage standards as interest rates fall and competition for home loans intensifies. In a new system-wide stress test, the Australian Prudential Regulation Authority (APRA) found that banks and superannuation funds would be resilient even under a year-long financial shock driven by geopolitical tensions, inflation

The U.S. Commerce Department is preparing to authorise the sale of up to 70,000 advanced AI chips to government-backed technology companies in the United Arab Emirates and Saudi Arabia, marking a significant shift in Washington’s stance toward the Middle East’s fast-growing AI ambitions. Wall Street Journal (gated) with the info. The move reverses earlier resistance

The Trump administration is quietly reassessing the timing of long-promised semiconductor tariffs, with several U.S. officials privately signalling that duties may not be imposed as soon as previously indicated. Reuters carry the report. Multiple people familiar with recent conversations said the administration has adopted a more cautious stance, wary of provoking Beijing and potentially reigniting

Many participants suggested that, under their economic outlooks, it would likely be appropriate to keep the target range unchanged for the rest of the year. Most participants judged that further downward adjustments would likely be appropriate over time to move toward a neutral stance. Several participants assessed a Dec cut would be appropriate if economy

0.2 basis point tail I don’t think that’s going to move the broader market. This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

The AUDUSD is pressing to fresh session lows, and in doing so has broken decisively below the 200-day moving average at 0.6458. That’s notable because the pair has not traded below the 200-day MA since October 17, making today’s move a meaningful technical development. Remaining below this long-term barometer shifts the bias more firmly in

There are more details on the 28-point peace plan the US has floated to Russia and Ukraine. It would require Ukraine to abandon the Donbass region that it still controls. The full details aren’t revealed but it would likely include all of the Donetsk region. Ukraine would also be required to cut the size of

There is going to be a forever reminder of the US government shutdown on the chart. As rumored, the BLS won’t release the October jobs report. For the establishment survey, which is the headline number in non-farm payrolls, that number for October will be included on Dec 16 when the November report is released. However

WTI crude is down $1.80 to $58.94 today and at fresh session lows. Oil has been under pressure since an earlier report that the Trump administration had been secretly consulting with Russia to draft a new plan to end the war in Ukraine. Notably, the plan seems to include a post-war framework for the relationship

The picture you’re looking at is the most-expensive modern art ever sold and the 2nd most-expensive art of any kind ever sold at auction. It’s Gustav Klimt’s portrait of Elisabeth Lederer and it sold at Sotheby’s in New York yesterday for a record $236.4 million after fees, breaking the record previously set by an Andy

In yesterday’s USDJPY video, I highlighted the upside roadmap given the strong trend bias. At the time, I noted that a break above 155.43 would open the door toward the next target at 155.88, and that a move above that level would put the key swing area near 156.73 on traders’ radar. (You can revisit

The early enthusiasm in all markets have faded. Gold has been caught in that, as a $45 gain has turned into a $10 loss, with the selling accelerating as it went red. When you zoom out, the chart continues to show consolidation right around the $4100 level. I think we might need some clarification on

Sector Overview: Winners and Losers Today’s market heatmap reveals a mixed bag of results across various sectors. Notably, the semiconductor sector has caught investors’ attention with standout performances. Nvidia (NVDA) leads the charge up 1.55%, buoying the sector’s overall gains. Meanwhile, Lam Research (LRCX) is surging by 2.34%, highlighting robust investor confidence. Conversely, the technology

The six-month annualised growth rate in the Westpac-Melbourne Institute Leading Index, which indicates the likely pace of economic activity relative to trend three to nine months into the future, moved into slightly positive territory in October, lifting to +0.35% in October from +0.10% in September. WPAC comments: Leading Index growth rate lifts to 0.35%, moving

Under the current situation, even if Japanese aquatic products are exported to China, there will be no market Japan PM Takaichi’s erroneous remarks about Taiwan have fundamentally damaged the political foundation of Sino-Japanese relations China seriously urges Japan to retract its erroneous remarks, stop creating incidents on China-related issues Urges Japan to take concrete actions

The EURUSD has fallen sharply after testing key resistance in the early U.S. session, where sellers stepped in decisively. As outlined in today’s Kickstart video, that resistance area capped the upside and sparked a reversal. The decline has now pushed the pair below the 38.2% retracement of the move up from the mid-October low at

Prior was +6413K Gasoline +2327K vs -227K exp Distillates +171K vs -1215K WTI crude oil is down $1.66 to $59.10 today on hopes for a Ukraine-Russia peace and after Russia’s top oil companies said that sanctions haven’t affected exports. This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

Google is winning. Almost two years ago, Google unveiled Bard and it was a flop with shares falling 9% in a day. The company was on the defensive as the market panicked that its once-unpenetrable search moat was going to be unmoored by AI. The struggles continued and from January of this year to April,

Another disappointing earnings report from Target begs two questions: Is this a sign that US consumers are weak? Or that Target isn’t executing? On the first point, it comes after Home Depot shares were beaten up yesterday on a soft report. With Home Depot, the company blamed the lack of hurricanes and other storms in

The USDCHF continues its upward push that began at the start of the week, with Monday marking the low. The move extended yesterday and carried into today as price returned to a key technical cluster defined by the 200-bar MA on the 4-hour chart at 0.7994, the 50% midpoint of the November range at 0.8000,

Smallest trade deficit of the year Prior was $78.3 billion (revised to $78.2B) This is ancient history but it should lead to a slight tick up in Q3 GDP trackers. This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

Google shares are up 6.5% today and trading at an all time high. I wrote about why earlier today. This week, I also wrote about why Nvidia is a bubble and Gemini 3 being trained with Google’s own chips adds to that argument. I see two paths from here: Google Gemini 3 proved that ‘there

In the kickstart video, I take a technical look at the EURUSD, USDJPY and GBPUSD by applying certain technical tools that help traders define the bias, risk and targets. Those three things are essential to traders success. Today, the 3 major currencies are mixed vs the USD. The EUR is little changed, the JPY is

Ethereum Futures Analysis for Today with tradeCompass (November 19, 2025) Bullish above: 3108 Bearish below: 3065 Primary bias: Bearish at current price Current price: 3033 Partial targets: Listed separately under each scenario Visit our Telegram Channel at https://t.me/investingLiveStocks Market Context and Directional Bias Ethereum futures are hovering around the psychologically important 3000 round number. Many

Via oilprice.com: — Expectations I had seen centred on: Headline crude -0.6 mn barrels Distillates -1.2 mn bbls Gasoline -0.2 mn — This data point is from a privately-conducted survey by the American Petroleum Institute (API). It’s a survey of oil storage facilities and companies The official report is due Wednesday morning US time. Shut

The USDCAD spent yesterday grinding lower, breaking through one support level after another until finally reaching a familiar ceiling-turned-floor from early October (red circles on the chart). In my late-day video, I noted that the pair appeared to have reached its final support zone between 1.3968 and 1.3975, and that a reclaim of the 61.8%

1. Let’s take a look at the NVDA options sentiment tool and it actually measures Today I look key NVDA option trades for the day (yesterday, actually, it is the most recent date where the options data is final and ready) and translating them into an equivalent number of NVDA shares. If someone buys a

Some positive info for Japan’s economy. Admittedly from a couple of months back: Japan Core Machinery Orders for September 2025 +11.6% y/y expected +5.4%, prior +1.6% +4.2% m/m expected +2.0%, prior -0.9%) This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

Fundamental Overview The USD performance has been mixed in the past days but still on net negative despite the decreasing December rate cut odds. It looks like the stock market is what has been driving all other markets. In fact, when the stock market had positive days, we’ve seen Treasury yields and the US dollar

Held meeting from perspective of maintaining close Government and BoJ coordination Held meeting on my request to confirm cooperation under the new administration Reaffirmed closely monitoring market Reconfirmed technical tweak to BoJ-Government joint statement, no change to substance No specific discussion on FX BoJ Ueda explained current policy stance Reaffirmed need for Government-BoJ to work

Set to deliver the most advanced and adaptive Agentic AI platform to power SLG, PLG and consumption-based GTM motions DealHub.io, the leader in Agentic enterprise-grade CPQ, today announced the acquisition of Subskribe, the industry’s most advanced Subscription Management, consumption metering and Billing platform built for the AI economy. The unified platform redefines how SaaS and

President Trump signalled he has likely settled on his preferred candidate for the next Federal Reserve chair, telling reporters in the Oval Office, “I think I already know my choice,” though he declined to say who it is. The Wall Street Journal with the snippet. Adding: Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent has been conducting interviews with

Looking at the rest of the data for this week: Wednesday, November 19 8:30 AM US International trade in goods and services. Estimate -$61.3 billion versus -$78.3 billion Thursday, November 20 8:30 AM ET Nonfarm payroll estimate 55K. Unemployment rate estimate 4.3% 8:30 AM ET Initial jobs claims 10 AM ET. Existing home sales. Estimate

Tesla received a ride-hailing permit this week from Arizona regulators opening the door for the automaker to begin operating a robotaxi service in the state Tesla applied for permit on November 13 Tesla met the requirements to operate as a TNC and is permitted as of November 17 permit is the final regulatory step to

Trump hitting up the socials, posting on AI investment, and then going off on some tangent: Investment in AI is helping to make the U.S. Economy the “HOTTEST” in the World — But overregulation by the States is threatening to undermine this Growth Engine. Some States are even trying to embed DEI ideology into AI

Market index 316.9 vs 334.2 prior Purchase index 168.7 vs 172.7 prior Refinance index 1156.8 vs 1247.5 prior 30-year mortgage rate 6.37% vs 6.34% prior This is never a market moving release. Mortgage applications are generally inversely correlated to mortgage rates. This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at investinglive.com.

China intends to renew a ban on Japanese seafood imports AUD, kiwi, CAD all losing ground against the USD Tesla received a ride-hailing permit from Arizona, opening the door to begin robotaxi BOJ may delay rate hike until March as advisers urge caution on weak economy ICYMI: BoE sets out plans for regulated sterling stablecoins

US MBA mortgage applications w.e. 14 November -5.2% vs +0.6% prior USDJPY extends gains above the 156.00 handle as Japanese officials keep the dovish stance Eurozone September final CPI +2.1% vs +2.1% y/y prelim Japan Finance Minister: Held meeting on maintaining close Govt, BoJ coordination Traders add to BoE rate cut bets after the UK

The USDJPY pair has extended the gains above the 156.00 handle following Japan Finance Minister Katayama’s remarks earlier in the session here. Her comments put further downward pressure on the JPY as BoJ rate hike hopes continue to dwindle. The market is still pricing a 25% probability for a December cut, but that’s unlikely to

EUR/USD 1.1600 (EUR 1.40bn) USD/JPY 153.00 (US$ 1.26bn) GBP/USD 1.3200 (GBP 407.6mn) 1.3100 (GBP 520.2mn) AUD/USD 0.6500 (AUD 640.1mn) 0.6300 (AUD 445.6mn) NZD/USD 0.5730 (NZD 434.5mn) For more information on how to use this data, you may refer to this post here. This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at investinglive.com.

November 2025: OneRoyal is pleased to announce a strategic collaboration with Acuity Trading, integrating Acuity’s advanced AI-driven trading signals and its Dynamic Email platform into our trading environment. With this upgrade, OneRoyal traders now gain access to Acuity Trading’s fully automated AI trade signals, which analyse real-time sentiment, volatility and historical data across FX, indices,

Following the UK CPI report, traders increased the BoE easing bets with the December cut probabilities rising to 85% vs 80% before the data release. By the end of 2026, the market sees 63 bps of easing compared to 59 bps before the inflation data. We haven’t seen big moves in GBP following the data

A Reuters/Ipsos poll shows: Trump approval rating falls 38% which is the lowest since returning to the White House 26% of Americans approve of Trump’s handling of cost-of-living 70% say that government is hiding Epstein client info. Pres. Trump is meeting with the Saudi Crown Prince and an ABC reporter first asked about the Trump

New Zealand third quarter producer price rises not as fast as expected Data from Stats NZ. New Zealand PPI Outputs +0.6% q/q expected 0.7%, prior 0.6% Inputs 0.2% q/q expected 0.9%, prior 0.6% Slower wholesale inflation will be welcomed by the Reserve Bank of New Zealand. The bank is continuing on its easing cycle in

We’ve had data from New Zealand earlier: New Zealand Q3 PPI: Outputs +0.6% (+0.7% expected) Inputs +0.2% (expected +0.9%) Nothing there to deter the RBNZ from further easing. Not bullish for kiwi. We’ve had data from Oz also: Australia data – Wage Price Index for Q3 2025: 0.8% q/q (expected 0.8%) The data was in

Bessent was interviewed on Fox ‘news’. He was asked if the checks Trump will be sending out to Americans for $2000 would be inflationary. Bessent answered that “Maybe we can persuade Americans to save that”. Idiotic answer. The thing is, Bessent is not an idiot. Slimy politician, yes. There you have it folks. Further inflation

In line results. Q3 2025 Wage Price Index 0.8% (QoQ) expected 0.8%, prior 0.8% 3.4% y/y expected 3.4%, prior 3.4% — The September quarter (Q3) is notable in Australia as its when a significant share of wage increases occur: Award/Minimum wages adjustments are made annually by Australia’s Fair Work Commission (FWC) The FWC granted a

Prior +2.2% Core CPI +2.4% vs +2.4% y/y prelim Prior +2.4% The final figures confirm the preliminary estimates, so nothing to see here. This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at investinglive.com.

Nvidia will close out the Magnificent Seven earnings season when it reports third-quarter results after the bell on November 19, with markets bracing for what could be the most consequential update yet on the durability of the AI boom. Expectations are sky-high: consensus forecasts already sit above Nvidia’s own guidance, leaving unusually little room for

Goldman Sachs expects oil prices to drift lower over the next two years as a wave of new supply hits the market, pushing the global balance into a persistent surplus. In a note published Monday, the bank said it sees a roughly 2 million barrels per day oversupply through 2026, driven by the delayed arrival

Kyodo reports that Japan’s upcoming economic stimulus package is expected to exceed ¥20 trillion, with a supplementary budget of roughly ¥17 trillion planned to finance the measures. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

Bank of England Deputy Governor for Financial Stability Sarah Breeden told attendees at the SALT conference that the central bank is preparing a consultation paper on regulating sterling-denominated systemic stablecoins. ICYMI: The paper, first flagged in a BoE announcement on 10 November, sets out how these digital tokens — designed to maintain a stable value

Foreign demand for U.S. Treasuries softened in September as overseas investors trimmed their holdings for the first time in six months, newly released Treasury Department data show. The figures were delayed by the federal government’s 43-day shutdown, with the October report now slated for 18 December. Overall foreign Treasury holdings slipped to $9.249 trillion in

Prior +3.8% Core CPI +3.4% vs +3.4% y/y expected Prior +3.5% Services CPI +4.5 vs 4.6% y/y expected Prior +4.7% The figures are in line with expectations, except the services measure which was lower than expected. The market was already pricing an 80% probability of a rate cut in December, so the data is not

The Japanese yen continues to divide opinion among global investors. Bank of America’s latest fund manager survey shows sentiment turning more constructive on the currency’s longer-term prospects, with 30% of respondents expecting the yen to outperform in 2026, making it the most favoured asset ahead of gold. The survey suggests a belief that Japan’s policy

Japanese media, Jiji, is reporting that Bank of Japan Governor Ueda, Japanese Finance Minister Katayama, and Japanese Economy Minister Kiuchi will be having a meeting today, Wednesday, November 19, 2025. 0910 GMT 04:10 US Eastern time Katayama is then expected to speak to media at 0930 GMT. A 20 minute meeting? How much do they

A senior adviser to Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi says the Bank of Japan is unlikely to raise interest rates before March, arguing policymakers must first confirm that a major fiscal package is lifting domestic demand. Goushi Kataoka — a former BOJ board member and now part of Takaichi’s economic strategy panel — told Bloomberg

The People’s Bank of China (PBOC), China’s central bank, is responsible for setting the daily midpoint of the yuan (also known as renminbi or RMB). The PBOC follows a managed floating exchange rate system that allows the value of the yuan to fluctuate within a certain range, called a “band,” around a central reference rate,

People’s Bank of China USD/CNY reference rate is due around 0115 GMT. The People’s Bank of China (PBOC), China’s central bank, is responsible for setting the daily midpoint of the yuan (also known as renminbi or RMB). The PBOC follows a managed floating exchange rate system that allows the value of the yuan to fluctuate

Kyodo report. Yen losing some ground on this. – Frosty relations between China and Japan were prompted by new Japan PM Takaichi making comments on Taiwan a couple of weeks ag0. China reacted with fury and it hasn’t let up. Yesterday: investingLive Asia-Pacific FX news wrap: BOJ Governor Ueda to meet with PM Takaichi later

In the European session, the main highlight is going to be the UK CPI report. The CPI Y/Y is expected at 3.6% vs 3.8% prior (same as BoE’s forecast), while the Core CPI Y/Y is seen at 3.4% vs 3.5% prior. Governor Bailey placed more emphasis on inflation regarding his decision on a December cut,

Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda will meet on Wednesday with Finance Minister Satsuki Katayama and Economic Revitalisation Minister Minoru Kiuchi, the Ministry of Finance announced. Katayama is scheduled to brief reporters at around 6:30 p.m. (0930 GMT) following the discussions. The meeting comes just a day after Ueda held talks with Prime Minister Sanae

Axios with the report, in brief: The Trump administration has been quietly coordinating with Russia on a new proposal aimed at ending the war in Ukraine, according to U.S. and Russian officials who spoke with Axios. The significance: The 28-point U.S. framework draws heavily on President Trump’s recent success brokering a deal in Gaza. A

Australia’s Wage Price Index (WPI) has come in exactly in line with expectations: Australia data – Wage Price Index for Q3 2025: 0.8% q/q (expected 0.8%) Not only in line with market expectations but those from the Reserve Bank of Australia as well. AUD/USD is hardly moved. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at

The USDCAD has continued it’s move to the downside (see earlier post here), and in the process moved below the 1.4000 level, the 61.8% retracement level I.39837, and into a swing area between 1.3968 and 1.3975 where buyers have now stepped in. Is the low in? In the video above I take a look at

The White House announced a series of major agreements between the United States and Saudi Arabia, marking a significant expansion in defense, trade, technology and strategic cooperation. Officials said both countries have committed to intensifying their engagement on trade issues in the coming weeks, signalling renewed momentum in the bilateral economic relationship. Saudi Arabia to

Army Secretary Dan Driscoll and chief of staff Gen. Randy George visited Ukraine on an unannounced tri The news comes as the U.S. moves to find a way to speed the end of the war: Axios says the U.S. is secretly drafting new plan to end Ukraine war The duo are slated to meet with

US stocks close lower. Midday rally runs out of steam UK media reports that Reeves will consider ‘shielding’ small businesses from tax rises BLS :US PPI to be released on November 25 Reuters Poll: Trump approval rating falls to 38%. His lowest since returning to the WH USDCAD Technicals: USDCAD falls through 61.8% retracement and

The UK Times (gated) with the report that UK Chancellor Reeves is considering measures to shield small businesses and the self employed from tax rises. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

Deutsche Bank says gold’s role as a portfolio diversifier remains intact, even as its traditional negative correlation with risk assets has become less reliable in recent years. In a new note, the bank argues that official-sector buying, not financial-market positioning, continues to be the dominant force supporting bullion prices. Analysts expect central banks and reserve

Bank of America’s November global fund manager survey shows most investors expect the euro to end 2026 stronger but still within familiar territory. Nearly half (48%) see EUR/USD finishing in a $1.10–$1.20 range, roughly in line with today’s 1.1587 level. Another 30% expect a push higher into the $1.20–$1.30 band. Very few investors foresee a

None of this is likely to move markets around too much upon release. The wages data from Australia will be of interest to the RBA. Officials at the Bank have realised that inflation is sticky high, an acceleration in wages beyond the Q2 result and/or beyoined estiamtes will be troublesome for them. This snapshot from

The major stock indices are closing lower on the day after stalling during a midday rally. Each of the 3 major indices stayed in in negative territory for the entire day. A snapshot of the closing levels shows: Dow industrial average -498.50 points or -1.07% at 46091.74. At session highs, the index was still down

Maybe the market was more anxious about an election in Canada than we thought? It’s tough to pin down why the loonie is such a standout performer today. It’s easily the strongest G10 performer today up 0.6%, doubling the Australian dollar’s gain. It’s not a huge move but it drops the US dollar to the

This is good news on the trade front, but Trump also said he would tell Bessent that he wants China to speed up the pace of farm buying. So it’s not really clear what’s happening but Trump sounds happy so that’s good news. US stocks are well off the lows, with the S&P 500 down

Google is now winning the AI war. There has been something of a hype campaign around the release of Gemini 3 but people were skeptical. We have seen this before from OpenAI where they constantly hint that a new model is revolutionary and then release it and it’s not. So when Google was doing the

Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda will hold his first formal bilateral meeting with Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi on Tuesday, a high-stakes encounter that may offer clues on how soon the BOJ resumes its rate-hike cycle. The meeting comes as the yen weakens to a nine-month low, prompting fresh concern from the finance minister about

Trump said he’s started Fed chair interviews but that “I think we already know the choice for Fed chair”. With that, he also said they have some surprising names for Fed chair and “we may go the standard way”. That last detail is good news if you like stability. Who would that mean though? Waller?

Goldman Sachs extended its oil outlook to 2035 and the message is simple: brace for a dip before the next leg higher. We still forecast Brent/WTI to decline to 2026 averages of $56/52 (vs. $63/60 forwards) as the last big supply wave keeps the market in surplus. But we think oil prices will pick up

The S&P 500 today touched the lowest since October 15 but has embarked on a strong turnaround. From the low of 6659, it’s climbed to 6655, a nearly 100 point rebound. Despite that, the index is still down 15 points, or 0.2%. Three things may have been catalysts: Google releasing Gemini 3 and its looks

The US stock indices are tumbling lower with all the major indices down over 1.25%. The NASDAQ index is leading the way with a fall of -1.83% at 22,296. The Dow industrial average is down -1.35% and the S&P is down 1.26%. Looking at the daily chart of the NASDAQ index, it has moved away

The early New York trade seemingly always leads to some kind of move in gold but you never know which way. Lately we’ve been seeing sellers and yesterday and sank on the risk rout but today there are some nice bids creeping in. Gold is up $25 to $4069, which erases the late slide yesterday.

Bank of America is out with its fund manager survey and this chart stands out. It highlights how cash levels are at worrisome levels. “Cash levels of 3.7% or lower has occurred 20 times since 2002, & on every occasion stocks fell and Treasuries outperformed in the following 1-3 months,” Bank of America writes. The

Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller said he firmly supports another quarter-point rate cut at the December 9–10 meeting, arguing the U.S. labour market has weakened enough to justify further easing. Waller—seen as a leading candidate to become the next Fed chair—said surveys, employer contacts and private-sector indicators all point to a job market “near stall

Fundamental Overview The USD performance has been mixed in the past days but still on net negative despite the decreasing December rate cut odds. It looks like the stock market is what has been driving all other markets. In fact, when the stock market had positive days, we’ve seen Treasury yields and the US dollar

Barkin is a good barometer for the core of the Fed: Inflation is above target but isn’t likely to increase due to consumer push-back and productivity increases Job growth is down but labor supply is also slowing There is a lot to learn between now and Dec 10 Fed meeting The market is back to

The USDJPY is pushing to fresh highs after holding firm support near the 155.00 level earlier in the US session. That zone remains the key risk and bias defining level for today and in the sessions ahead. The latest move higher has taken the pair above the earlier intraday peak at 155.43, putting focus on

This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com.

Bitcoin is continuing its down trend in Asia on Tuesday, dropping under $91,000 for the first time in six months. The crypto is not the only asset losing ground, with diminishing prospects for a December Federal Reserve rate cut and concerns over AI foremost in the market’s mind. investingLive Americas FX news wrap 17 Nov:The

The USDCHF is trading higher and holding near its session highs, and in the process is testing a key technical barrier: the 38.2% retracement of the decline from the November high to last week’s low. That retracement level sits at 0.79715, and a break above it would open the door for a push toward a

The People’s Bank of China (PBOC), China’s central bank, is responsible for setting the daily midpoint of the yuan (also known as renminbi or RMB). The PBOC follows a managed floating exchange rate system that allows the value of the yuan to fluctuate within a certain range, called a “band,” around a central reference rate,

It’s just the first attempt though. Amid the more dour market mood as market players are selling everything on the deleveraging, the pressure is still very much on. But for now, dip buyers are certainly making it known where they want to draw a hard line on the latest dip in gold. If there is

Multi-asset broker Versus Trade has successfully obtained the SEC-2.1B Investment Dealer license from the Mauritius Financial Services Commission, marking a pivotal regulatory achievement for the rapidly expanding platform. The license was granted in September 2025 and can be independently verified through the FSC’s public registry. The regulatory approval comes during a remarkable year for Versus

Markets have been struggling across virtually every major asset class since mid-October, according to Deutsche Bank, with both risk assets and traditional safe havens caught in a broad-based pullback. Bitcoin is down 24% from its recent peak, and the S&P 500 has notched its longest stretch without a record high since the “Liberation Day” turbulence

After nearly 5 years of inflation above target, when does underlying inflation actually fall to target? More from Pill: Policymakers should be cautious about over-interpreting latest changes in key data We have not seen the moderation in key nominal data that we would have expected in the past Wage growth is still substantially above what

The USDCAD has stepped consistently lower in the European and early North American session after consolidating just below topside resistance between 1.4060 and 1.40668. On the run to the downside, the price fell below the Broken 38.2% retracement of the move up from the end of October low to the November high at 1.40433 The

Federal Reserve Waller Q&A now: Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller continued his heavy run of commentary, warning that labour-market weakness remains the dominant concern and reinforcing his case for further policy easing. He said that if the job market were to show a meaningful rebound, the need for additional “insurance” cuts would diminish — but

Prior was 37 Current single family home sales 41 vs 38 prior Prospective buyers 26 vs 25 prior The housing market is struggling with +6% US 30-year fixed rates. January lumber prices cratered recently. This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

The U.S. stock market is seeing a contrasting day of trading as tech giants face challenges, whereas consumer electronics sees green pastures. Investors are advised to stay vigilant as sector dynamics continue to evolve sharply. 🔍 Sector Overview 🚨 Technology: The technology sector is under noticeable pressure with notable decliners such as Microsoft (MSFT) down

Prior was 279.2K This is a sharp slowdown from September levels. This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

Prior was -1.3% Durable goods orders unrevised at +2.9% Note that this is data for August so it’s ancient history. It will take awhile to catch up because of the US government shutdown. This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

Several websites, including X, are reporting problems due to issues with Cloudflare. Cloudflare is an internet infrastructure company that supports thousands of websites. It’s reported that it’s an “internal server error on Cloudflare’s network”. Cloudflare is investigating the issue. Shares of the comany (ticker NET) dropped in pre-market and are now trading 3% lower. This

The US stocks are lower. The USD yields are lower. The USD is mixed (but little changed) vs the major currency pairs to kickstart the US/North American session. In the video, I kickstart the US trading session by looking at the EURUSD, USDJPY and GBPUSD from a technical perspective. What are the roadmaps for traders

Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi will launch tax-reform talks this week aimed at cutting fuel taxes to support households while identifying offsetting revenue measures to protect fiscal discipline. The ruling Liberal Democratic Party and its coalition partner will debate next-year’s tax package, including the already-agreed scrapping of gasoline and diesel surcharges — a move that

The Reserve Bank of Australia signalled a more balanced policy stance in the minutes of its November 3–4 meeting, saying it could keep the cash rate unchanged for longer if incoming data proves stronger than expected, even as it still sees scenarios where further easing may be required. The board judged the current 3.6% cash

Prior week -11,250 For the four weeks ending Nov. 1, 2025, private employers shed an average of 2,500 jobs a week as employment losses slowed heading into November. The initial report weekly showed a healthy +14,250 jobs gain. The report will be published weekly except during the week when the monthly ADP numbers are released

Google is one of the bright spots in stock markets today, as it rallies 2.8% following filing’s showing the Berkshire Hathaway took a $5 billion stake in the third quarter. There are also strong rumors that Google is about to launch something amazing with Gemini 3, potentially taking a big lead in the AI space.

This builds on their previous note from last week here. Goldman Sachs is noting that the Japanese yen is likely to drop further in the near-term but sees limited upside in USD/JPY as intervention risks continue to rise. For the time being at least, the firm argues that “the usual prerequisites for intervention are not

Yen has room to drop further but intervention risks cap USD/JPY upside – Goldman Sachs US initial claims 232K and continuing claims 1957K in the week ending October 18 European indices see red at the open as risk stays pressured BofA FMS: AI bubble biggest tail risk for 45% of respondents Gold clips the $4,000

More from Fed’s Waller: A rebound in labor market would maybe mean no need for cuts Fed’s Waller says supports a 25bp rate cut at the December 9/10 meeting Fed’s Waller continues to make the case for cutting rates in December Trump says he would be ok with launching strikes against Mexico to stop drugs

People’s Bank of China USD/CNY reference rate is due around 0115 GMT. The People’s Bank of China (PBOC), China’s central bank, is responsible for setting the daily midpoint of the yuan (also known as renminbi or RMB). The PBOC follows a managed floating exchange rate system that allows the value of the yuan to fluctuate

A lawyer for Fed Governor Lisa Cook wrote a letter to teh Attorney General on MOnday as she fights to keep her job. According to AP: Cook’s attorney, Abbe Lowell, wrote that the case against Cook largely rests on “one stray reference” in a 2021 mortgage document that was “plainly innocuous in light of the

Changelly is bringing Black Friday to the crypto market with its 2025 campaign, offering users record-low crypto purchase fees and exclusive rewards. The campaign is powered by Topper by Uphold, featuring the guaranteed lowest fees of 2025. Until November 30, users can buy crypto with up to 75% lower fees and enter a giveaway to

China has released initial price guidance for its latest euro-denominated sovereign bond issuance, with a term sheet showing plans to raise €4 billion across two maturities. Investors were guided to a 4-year tranche at mid-swaps +28 bps and a 7-year tranche at mid-swaps +38 bps, according to documents reviewed by Reuters. This marks Beijing’s continued

Fed’s Waller says weak labour market justifies another rate cut in December – recap Morgan Stanley lifts S&P 500 target to 7,800 as earnings and dovish Fed drive bull case Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda will meet with Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi today Bitcoin has dropped under US$91K for the first time in half

Investors say companies ‘overinvesting’ for the first time in 20 years Long Mag 7 most crowded trade for 54% of respondents Emerging markets and banks most vulnerable to proper Q4 risk-off move Froth to correct further without Fed December rate cut Bullish positioning a headwind not tailwind for risk assets Very low 3.7% cash levels

Fundamental Overview The USD performance has been mixed in the past days but still on net negative despite the decreasing December rate cut odds. It looks like the stock market is what has been driving all other markets. In fact, when the stock market had positive days, we’ve seen Treasury yields and the US dollar

Welp, that won’t go down well with Beijing. That especially since this was Kihara’s reply when questioned on whether or not the government has plans to retract Takaichi’s remarks on the Taiwan issue. And so, the political fist fight looks set to continue for longer. This article was written by Justin Low at investinglive.com.

Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller signalled firm support for another quarter-point interest-rate cut at the December 9–10 FOMC meeting, arguing that the U.S. labour market has lost momentum and the economy is slowing. Speaking in London, Waller said the “wealth of private and public-sector data” available during the 43-day government shutdown shows the job market

Will decide monetary policy while scrutinising various data Told prime minister that BOJ is adjusting degree of monetary support to stably achieve 2% inflation Discussed on FX but won’t comment on the details of that It is desirable for FX to move stably reflecting fundamentals, watching impact of market moves on the economy As you

In the European session, we don’t have anything on the agenda other than a couple of ECB speakers who are going to repeat the same old stuff. In the American session, the main highlight is the weekly US ADP jobs data. Last week, we got a soft number at -11,250 in the week ending October

Goldman Sachs says central banks appear to have stepped up their gold purchases sharply in November, reinforcing a powerful and ongoing official-sector bid that has been a key pillar of the metal’s bull market. The bank estimates that roughly 64 tonnes of central-bank gold demand occurred in September, and early indicators suggest November buying may

Japan’s Finance Minister Katayama is “alarmed” over FX moves. Japan’s Finance Minister Katayama said the government’s stimulus package has grown sizable, though she would not reveal its scale, and argued that negative GDP growth justifies additional fiscal support. On currencies, struck a more pointed tone, is “alarmed” about recent forex moves recently seeing one-sided, rapid

U.S. soybean futures surged to their highest level in more than a year on Monday, lifted by a wave of buying from China’s state-owned grain trader COFCO after the latest U.S.–China trade agreement. Reuters cite traders saying COFCO purchased at least 14 cargoes — roughly 840,000 tonnes — for December and January shipment, marking China’s

Eurostoxx -1.3% Germany DAX -1.2% France CAC 40 -1.5% UK FTSE -1.0% Spain IBEX -1.5% Italy FTSE MIB -1.7% This week has been a real setback for European indices with the drop since yesterday now wiping out the entire gains in November and then some. Investors remain on edge as we see the risk selloff

Initial claims 232K Continuing claims 1957K Data here It looks like the Department of Labor is starting to release the missed weekly claims data. This is of course old news, but it shows that conditions in the labour market haven’t changed much. We should get the most recent data on Thursday. This article was written

Perhaps not outright but surely she gave him plenty of subtle, or maybe not so subtle, hints on what she wants. I mean, it’s not like she has been trying to hide it to the public anyway either. So, yeah. “No request”, eh? *wink* *wink* This article was written by Justin Low at investinglive.com.

As a reminder, the pair had met just last week at a government panel meeting. But this time around, it looks to be a more focused meeting with it surely going to be disguised as one that discusses “economic and market developments”. Amid the selloff in Japanese bonds as traders and investors digest Takaichi’s fiscal

There is arguably just one to take note of on the day, as highlighted in bold below. That being for AUD/USD at the 0.6500 mark. The expiries don’t tie to much technical significance and amid the focus on risk sentiment this week, they shouldn’t be much of a factor in terms of driving price action.

Morgan Stanley expects the euro to strengthen against a softer U.S. dollar in the first half of 2026, but warns those gains are unlikely to last. In its year-ahead FX outlook, the bank says the European Central Bank may face pressure to deliver additional rate cuts, taking the deposit rate down to 1.5% from 2.0%,

Fundamental Overview The USD performance has been mixed in the past days but still on net negative despite the decreasing December rate cut odds. It looks like the stock market is what has been driving all other markets. In fact, when the stock market had positive days, we’ve seen Treasury yields and the US dollar

The precious metal now looks poised to make it four straight days of losses, down 0.8% today to $4,011 currently. It comes as we see some further signs of deleveraging in markets, with some pointing to easing Fed rate cut bets. While that may be true as Fed funds futures now only price in ~42%

German DAX futures -1.4% UK FTSE futures -1.3% It’s starting to look rough out there again with S&P 500 futures down 0.8% and Nasdaq futures down 1.0% currently. After the selloff in Wall Street, we’re seeing the risk rout deepen today and European equities are not spared that as well after the pain from yesterday.

JPMorgan says global wait times for Apple’s iPhone 17 lineup remain significantly longer than normal, signalling that demand continues to outpace supply well into the product cycle. In its latest weekly tracker, the bank notes that average lead times in Week 10 are around seven days, compared with just two days at the same stage

Barclays warns that Brent crude could surge above $85 a barrel if Russian oil exports decline sharply, arguing that markets are underestimating how vulnerable prices remain to supply-side shocks. The bank’s analysis stands in stark contrast to most 2026 forecasts, which cluster in the mid-$50s to mid-$60s and assume a smooth rebalancing of global supply

Wall Street had a bad showing yesterday and that is carrying over to today as the risk selloff continues to run to start the new week. Tech shares were feeling heavy with Nvidia dropping by nearly 2%, while Bitcoin is facing heavy selling after a break under $100,000. The cryptocurrency is now dropping to test

The big argument you hear from Nvidia bulls and bulls on the AI trade in general is that ‘this isn’t the dot-com bubble’. Their proof is compelling on the surface and it’s that Nvidia is profitable. They’re printing money in a way that’s rarely been seen before. It’s true but this is a classic case

Morgan Stanley has turned more bullish on U.S. equities, with chief U.S. equity strategist Mike Wilson lifting his 12-month S&P 500 target to 7,800, up from 7,200 previously. The new target reflects Wilson’s view that a new bull market began in April. Wilson argues that earnings growth, improving operating leverage, firmer pricing power, and AI-driven

If you think that bitcoin is the canary in the risk appetite coal mine, then there’s a problem. There is a strong correlation between bitcoin and the Nasdaq, with chipmakers particularly levered. Lately, there has been a disconnect but it could just been bitcoin leading. Part of the thinking on the bitcoin correlation is that

HSBC says fears of an AI-driven market bubble are misplaced and that the odds favour a year-end “melt-up” in equities rather than a correction. Chief multi-asset strategist Max Kettner wrote that many investor pushbacks centre on supposed early warning signs, the “canaries in the coalmine”, but HSBC sees far fewer risks than the market narrative

Morgan Stanley expects the U.S. dollar to weaken through the first half of 2026 before stabilising later in the year, according to its latest year-ahead FX outlook. The bank forecasts the DXY dollar index to drop from around 99.45 today to 94.00 by mid-2026, reflecting a period of elevated risk premium tied to concerns over

It’s a sparse calendar for the session here: The minutes are for the early November meeting. The Reserve Bank of Australia left its cash rate on hold. From the day: investingLive Asia-Pacific FX news wrap: RBA holds. USD dollar firmer, but yen recovers RBA governor Bullock: We are not moved by outside commentary on policy

There has been some mild selling in the Mexican peso as Trump just casually mused about bombing the US neighbour. For context, he was asked about launching strikes against Mexico to stop drugs, he said “Ok with me.” Trump also said he wasn’t happy with Mexico. This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

Japan’s Finance Minister Katayama said the government’s upcoming economic stimulus package has become “sizable,” but declined to disclose its exact scale. His comments suggest the package has expanded as ministries finalise measures aimed at supporting households and sustaining the recovery. However, Katayama signalled the government is not yet ready to commit publicly to a figure,

China’s Premier Li Qiang met Russian Prime Minister Mikhail Mishustin in Moscow on Monday, with both sides signalling a push to deepen economic and cultural ties. According to Xinhua, Li said China is ready to expand cooperation with Russia across investment, energy and agriculture, and invited greater volumes of high-quality Russian agricultural and food products

Says he supports a quarter- point cut in December Wealth of data pains ‘actionable picture’ of economy despite delay in official data Dour consumer sentiment lines up with reports of slackening demand Labor market weak, near stall speed Unlikely that any upcoming data including jobs report would change his view that another cut is in

Global equities may look expensive, but Goldman Sachs expects returns to remain resilient over the next decade, driven primarily by earnings growth and steady shareholder payouts. In a new outlook, Peter Oppenheimer, Goldman’s chief global equity strategist, forecasts 7.7% annualised USD returns worldwide, underpinned by nominal GDP growth, profitability and distributions. Goldman breaks out expected

Japan’s Economy Minister Kiuchi said there has been no change in the government’s assessment that the economy is “improving moderately,” even after the release of the latest third-quarter GDP figures. He reiterated that long-term interest rates are ultimately determined by the market and stressed that authorities are monitoring financial conditions closely, including movements in longer-dated

Super for the shorts! U.S. equities ended lower. The S&P 500 unofficially closed down 65.91 points, a drop of about 0.98%, finishing near 6,668. The Nasdaq fell about 0.9%, closing near 22,691. The Dow Jones dropped roughly 1.2%, finishing around 46,570 across the two unofficial readings shown. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at

At pretty much any point since the Liberation Day lows, the market was acting differently. Yes, there would be dips (usually in a reaction to tariff or other political news) and then it would stabilize and the dip buying started. Once the rally started, momentum took over. That hasn’t been the case lately. Since late

The lesson of the trade war so far — unfortunately — is that the US is going to get away with it. When Europe folded on retaliation and essentially accepted 15% US tariffs, that was the ballgame. It was the only bloc with enough buying power to stand up to the US and fight for

Sector Overview The stock market today reflects a mixed bag of performances across various sectors. The Technology sector is facing a downturn with semiconductor stocks particularly hit hard. Nvidia (NVDA) slumped by 2.70%, reflecting investor concerns over potential supply chain issues and demand fluctuations. Similarly, AMD is down by 2.15%, contributing to the prevailing bearish

The NZDUSD is trading up and down in trading today. On the topside, the price has found willing sellers between the 38.2% of the move down from the end of October high. and the high of a swing area at 0.5691. On the downside, the 100 and the 200 hour MAs between 0.5652 to 0.5665

Samsung lifts memory-chip prices up to 60% as AI-driven shortage intensifies Japan’s JGB yield rise sparks alarm, but fears of a global liquidity shock are overblown China cracks down on “zero-mileage” auto exports used to inflate sales and claim tax perks RBA’s Fry-McKibbin rejects claims review urged equal weighting of inflation and jobs Japan 2026

The USDCAD has been trapped in a relatively tight range over the past two trading days, with well-defined levels containing the price action. On the downside, support is anchored by the 50% retracement of the move up from the late-October low at 1.40135, reinforced by the 100-hour moving average at 1.40174. On the topside, resistance

Warren Buffett’s Berkshire Hathaway has taken a significant new stake in Alphabet, revealing a $4.3 billion position that made the Google parent its 10th-largest equity holding at the end of Q3, according to its latest regulatory filing. The move stands out given Buffett’s longstanding caution toward high-growth technology companies, even though Apple — a long-time

Bitcoin has now fallen about 26% from its October all-time high, extending the corrective move lower. Last Friday, the price broke decisively below a key technical zone that included the 38.2% retracement at $96,975 and a prior swing area near $98,240. A rising trendline also cuts through that region, adding to its importance as a

This chart shows the whole history of the euro, since its inception. It’s charted against the yen and just now touched a fresh all-time high at 180.01. We’re used to thinking of the euro as something of a basketcase because of the dysfuction in eurozone policymaking, particularly at the political level but in these terms,

US Secretary of State Rubio says his State Department: intends to designate Cartel de los Soles as a Foreign Terrorist Organization (FTO). Headed by the illegitimate Nicolás Maduro, the group has corrupted the institutions of government in Venezuela and is responsible for terrorist violence conducted by and with other designated FTOs as well as for

Japanese officials won’t like the continued weakening of the yen. There were buy stops in the past few minutes as it cracked 155.00 for the first time since February and the momentum has continued to 155.25. On Friday, the pair dipped on risk aversion only to completely recover alongside stock markets. Today, it’s also stocks

Nasdaq Technical Analysis for Today with tradeCompass (Conditional Long and Short Structure) Nasdaq futures begin the session inside a wide, unstable range, and today’s tradeCompass layout introduces two conditional setups. These conditions help filter out noise and align trades with cleaner directional confirmation, which has been essential this week given how quickly equities have surged

The market got something of a lift late on Friday as Berkshire Hathaway disclosed a stake in Google. That’s helped to lift its shares 3.3% and there continues to be heavy rumors of a blockbuster Gemini 3 release around Nov 22. Elsewhere though, the picture is less-pretty. The market is feeling angst about Wednesday’s Nvidia

The USDJPY is breaking higher, trading at its highest level since February 2025. The pair cleared last week’s high at 155.04, with the current price holding near 155.25, reinforcing the bullish momentum. Earlier in the session, buyers leaned on the rising 100-hour moving average, which helped define the low and gave the market a green

Prior was -0.1% This is ancient history but this is the first bite into the backlog from the government shutdown. This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

Fundamental Overview The uncertainty about a December cut has been putting a lid on further stock market gains. The probability for a December cut is now a bit below 50%. It’s still basically a 50/50 chance, but we will likely need soft labour market or inflation data to get the Fed to cut at the

Prior was +2.4% CPI m/m +0.2% vs +0.2% expected (prior +0.1%) Core measures CPI Bank of Canada core y/y 2.9% vs 2.8% prior CPI Bank of Canada core m/m +0.3% vs +0.3% prior Core CPI m/m SA +0.3% vs +0.3% prior Trim 3.0% versus 3.0% expected (prior was 3.1%) Median 2.9% versus 3.1% expected (prior

Prior +1.6% HICP +1.3% vs +1.3% y/y prelim Prior +1.8% Slight delay in the release by the source. Core annual inflation is seen dropping slightly to 1.9%, down from 2.0% in September. But as mentioned previously, the main sticking point for the ECB is still mostly Germany. This article was written by Justin Low at

Mann is always hawkish so I wouldn’t be bothered by this comment. Cable is up 4 pips to 1.3175 today. This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

Japanese Government Bond yields are on the rise again. 10-year JGB yield climbs to highest since 2008 20-Year JGB yield climbs to highest level since 1999 Neither of these are overly positive for global money liqudiity, but the fear mongering from the usual social media suspects is too extreme. I’ve seen “death of the global

The USDCHF pushed to a new session high in the US morning trade, reaching up to test the falling 100-hour moving average, which currently sits at 0.79602. Sellers leaned against that level on the first touch — the first retest since the pair broke below the 100-hour MA on November 6 — and the price

German DAX futures -0.1% French CAC 40 futures -0.2% UK FTSE futures -0.1% It was tech shares that did the heavy lifting on Friday in bringing back up the mood in Wall Street. And that’s somewhat continuing today as well. S&P 500 futures are up 0.3% with Nasdaq futures up 0.6% but Dow futures are

There are so many Fed officials telling us that a cut isn’t coming in December. The odds are down to 39% and should fall further on this, which is coming from a Fed Governor. Still not clear how much data will be ready ahead of Dec 10 meeting Current policy still somewhat restrictive Balance of

This is one thing that is not capturing too much headlines yet but worth keeping tabs of. China’s foreign ministry is now out saying that Japan prime minister Takaichi’s remarks on the Taiwan issue have seriously damaged the political foundations between the two countries. For some context, she commented here on a possible military response

The USD is mostly higher – but modestly – to start the new trading day and the week. Looking at the changes vs the USD: EUR +0.15% JPY +0.16% GBP -0.15% CHF +0.15% CAD +0.04% AUD +0.21% NZD +0.14% ECB members were speaking today. ECB’s de Guindos said inflation is expected to continue converging toward

Prior month 10.7 New orders 15.9 versus 3.7 last month shipments 16.8 versus 14.4 last month. Employment 6.6 versus 6.2 last month. Average employee workweek 7.7 versus -4.1 last month. Prices paid 49.0 versus 52.4 last month. Prices received 24.0 versus 27.2 last month inventories 6.7 versus -1.0 last month. Delivery time 7.7 versus 3.9

Over the last two weeks, the S&P 500 has been stuck in a “neither fish nor fowl” phase: no outright panic, but with little fuel for further growth. Even the news of the end of the longest US government shutdown had little impact. Why has apathy set in among investors? The main factor is lingering

In the European session, we don’t have much on the agenda other than the Swiss Q3 GDP report and the final Italian CPI. None of the data is going to change anything for the respective central banks, so the market reaction will likely be fairly muted. In the American session, the main highlight is the

The People’s Bank of China (PBOC), China’s central bank, is responsible for setting the daily midpoint of the yuan (also known as renminbi or RMB). The PBOC follows a managed floating exchange rate system that allows the value of the yuan to fluctuate within a certain range, called a “band,” around a central reference rate,

It shows that even with the dip buying late on Friday and the more optimistic mood earlier today, things are still very much on edge. S&P 500 futures have now pared gains of around 0.6% earlier to be up just 0.1% now as tech shares ease. Of note, Nvidia is down 0.5% in pre-market with

European Central Bank Governing Council member Olli Rehn warned that the risk of inflation slowing too sharply should not be dismissed, urging caution as policymakers weigh whether another rate cut in December is warranted. In an interview with Helsingin Sanomat, Rehn said weaker energy prices, a firmer euro and moderating wage and services inflation could

2025 Eurozone GDP growth forecast seen at 1.3% (previously 0.9%) 2026 Eurozone GDP growth forecast seen at 1.2% (previously 1.4%) 2025 Eurozone inflation seen at 2.1%, 2026 at 1.9%, 2027 at 2.0% Besides the standard estimates above, the commission sees some optimism arising from France despite the political struggles this year. They estimate the French

The iFX EXPO Hong Kong 2025 was more than just another financial event, it marked a significant milestone in Foti Markets’ journey to expand its global presence and deliver greater value to the worldwide trading community. From October 26–28, 2025, the Foti Markets team actively engaged in high-level networking, knowledge sharing, and exploring cutting-edge fintech

BOJ should wait at least until March or April next year to raise interest rates BOJ should move cautiously on policy normalisation It would be premature to raise interest rates in December or January Excessive yen fall is undesirable, Japan should not rule out FX intervention in addressing such moves It comes as no surprise

Japanese economic contraction in Q3 2025 – Japan’s economy contracted less than expected in the third quarter, with GDP falling 0.4% quarter-on-quarter versus forecasts for a 0.6% decline. On an annualised basis, output shrank 1.8%, also better than the expected 2.5% drop, as a soft global backdrop and sluggish domestic conditions continued to weigh on

I’m comfortable with where we are but I accept that there is a load of uncertainty around. Necessitating meeting by meeting approach. I think we are in a good place as far as our monetary policy is concerned We’ve been hearing from ECB members these same comments over and over again. They are fine with

The report will very much be a lagging data point, all things considered. However, it’s at least a start in trying to piece back together the picture after the longest US government shutdown in history. As a reminder, this will be the report for the September month. As for the October month, don’t hold your

Reserve Bank of Australia board member Renée Fry-McKibbin has pushed back against claims that the central bank’s recent governance review urged policymakers to give inflation and unemployment equal weight. Writing in the Australian Financial Review, she said the commentary “mischaracterises” the review’s intent and attacks a recommendation the panel never made. Fry-McKibbin, who joined the

One can expect them to put up a facade to say that this would just be a regular meeting in catching up with “economic developments” and what not. But amid the constant political pressure put on the BOJ, this would be another move by Takaichi to want to press the central bank into not hiking

UK house sellers cut asking prices more sharply than usual in early November as uncertainty ahead of Chancellor Rachel Reeves’ budget kept buyers on the sidelines, according to new data from Rightmove. Average asking prices fell 1.8% in the four weeks to Nov. 8 — the steepest seasonal drop since 2012 — pushing prices 0.5%

At least 32 people were killed after a bridge collapsed at a copper and cobalt mine in the Democratic Republic of the Congo, officials said, with some reports placing the toll even higher. Info from Al Jazeera. The incident occurred Saturday at the Kalando mine in Lualaba province, where heavy rains had prompted authorities to

Underlying inflation rate remains below target, therefore we are maintaining accomodative monetary policy BoJ is pursuing an interest rate level that ensures a smooth landing Maintaining monetary policy too loose for too long carries risks from achieving the 2% target in a stable manner Full article here As a reminder, the BoJ left interest rates

Fundamental Overview The uncertainty about a December cut has been putting a lid on further stock market gains. The probability for a December cut is now a bit below 50%. It’s still basically a 50/50 chance, but we will likely need soft labour market or inflation data to get the Fed to cut at the

Eurostoxx flat Germany DAX +0.1% France CAC 40 -0.1% UK FTSE flat Spain IBEX -0.2% Italy FTSE MIB flat It’s mostly tech shares once again that are the ones moving, with S&P 500 futures now moving up 0.6% with Nasdaq futures up 0.9% on the day. As such, that is not leaving much to work

Headlines: Easy come, easy go Reminder: US non-farm payrolls for September will be released this week ECB’s Makhlouf: We are in a good place as far as our monetary policy is concerned ECB’s de Guindos: I expect inflation to converge towards the 2% target BoJ Ueda: Underlying inflation rate remains below target Japan prime minister

Fundamental Overview Silver eventually erased almost the entire weekly gain as the short squeeze came to an end. Fundamentally, nothing has changed although the probabilities for a December cut fell to just 40% in the final part of last week. The market participants continue to wait for the key US data ahead of the December

People’s Bank of China USD/CNY reference rate is due around 0115 GMT. The People’s Bank of China (PBOC), China’s central bank, is responsible for setting the daily midpoint of the yuan (also known as renminbi or RMB). The PBOC follows a managed floating exchange rate system that allows the value of the yuan to fluctuate

Uncertainty has abated, but still a defining feature of our times FSR will focus on three big risks; first is about risk of financial market corrections There is a risk of abrupt shift in sentiment Fiscal challenge also a key vulnerability Banks may face deterioration of credit quality Banks resilience underpinned by profits, capital Adverse

Leading crypto Bitcoin is now net negative for 2025. Its fallen from above 125K at the beginning of October back under 94K as of about now. Meanwhile, ETH/USD is down from highs above 4.8K towatd 3K now. At least is still positive for the year. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

Atlanta Federal Reserve President Raphael Bostic signalled caution about supporting another interest-rate cut at the December meeting, even though he backed the two reductions delivered earlier in the year. Info via Bloomberg. Speaking at an event in Seattle late on Friday, Bostic said he wants incoming data to dictate whether additional easing is appropriate, emphasising

Domestic sight deposits CHF 436.9 bn vs CHF 436.3 bn prior That’s a slight drop in Swiss sight deposits in the past week but nothing out of the ordinary with the levels still keeping with what we have seen in the weeks prior. This article was written by Justin Low at investinglive.com.

The firm is forecasting the dollar index to drop all the way down to 94 in the first half of the year before rebounding back to around current levels at 99 by the end of 2026. That as they see slower global growth amid US tariffs, with the potential for a more K-shaped economy. In

Fundamental Overview Gold eventually erased almost the entire weekly gain as the short squeeze came to an end. Fundamentally, nothing has changed although the probabilities for a December cut fell to just 40% in the final part of last week. The market participants continue to wait for the key US data ahead of the December

President Donald Trump signalled on Sunday that his administration may be open to direct discussions with Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro, even as Washington maintains military pressure in the Caribbean. Speaking to reporters in West Palm Beach before returning to Washington, Trump said, “We may be having some discussions with Maduro… They would like to talk,”

Singapore’s non-oil domestic exports (NODX) surged 22.2% in October from a year earlier, far exceeding expectations (7.5%) and marking a sharp acceleration from September’s revised 7.0% rise, according to data from Enterprise Singapore. outperformance was driven primarily by a jump in non-monetary gold shipments electronic products also posting solid gains. The strength was broad-based across

Japanese Economy Minister Kiuchi: no change to view after Q3 GDP data that the economy is gradually recovering will compile an economic stimulus plan swiftly The terrible data is here: Japan Q3 GDP -0.4% q/q (expected -0.6%). Preliminary reading. Japan’s economy contracted for the first time in six quarters — Earlier: Japan expected to unveil

Japan’s Financial Services Agency is weighing a major overhaul of cryptocurrency oversight that would classify digital assets as financial products subject to insider-trading rules, according to a report in the Asahi newspaper. The proposed framework would cover roughly 105 cryptocurrencies listed in Japan, including bitcoin and ethereum, and would require exchanges to provide clearer disclosures

This week will be packed with economic events and will also include the long-awaited release of September labor market data for the U.S. On Monday, the focus will be on inflation data from Canada while Tuesday, Australia will release the RBA monetary policy meeting minutes. Wednesday brings Australia’s wage price index q/q, the U.K.’s inflation

Japan’s economy contracted for the first time in six quarters, shrinking an annualised 1.8% in Q3 as U.S. tariffs hit exports and regulatory changes dampened housing investment. While the downturn complicates the Bank of Japan’s path toward further policy tightening, economists stressed the decline was milder than expected and likely temporary. The median forecast had

Japan is sending a senior Foreign Ministry official to China on Monday in an effort to stabilise relations after Beijing escalated its response to recent remarks by Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi on Taiwan, NHK reported. The envoy, Masaaki Kanai, will aim to ease tensions after China issued a travel advisory for Japan and warned Chinese

Economic growth in Japan for Q3 2025 is expected to be economic contraction according to the survey of analysts reported. This snapshot from the investingLive economic data calendar. The times in the left-most column are GMT. The numbers in the right-most column are the ‘prior’ (previous month/quarter as the case may be) result. The number

Japan’s new government is preparing a stimulus package worth more than ¥17 trillion (about $110 billion), according to reporting by the Nikkei on Sunday. Finance Minister Satsuki Katayama disclosed the scale of the plan after meeting Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi, who took office in October and has pushed for an aggressive response to rising living

Japan Industrial Production September 2025, final : +2.6% m/m expected 2.2%, prior -1.5% +3.8% y/y prior +3.4% Capacity Utilization +2.5% m/m prior -2.3% Some better news will be welcome in Japan after the earlier GDP data was poor, links to these here: investingLive Asia-Pacific FX news wrap: Bitcoin loses all its 2025 gains This article

There aren’t any major expiries to take note of on the day, with the full list seen below. The resurgence in risk trades in US trading on Friday remains the key theme to take note of. That as risk sentiment continues to be the number one driver in dictating price action since last week. A

Sleijpen warns of the possibility of stablecoins being “systemically relevant at a certain point” if they are to continue growing at the same pace as they have been so far this year. This especially those that are directly linked to US assets, in particular many of those which are supposedly backed by US Treasuries. He

U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent spoke with Fox News on Sunday. rare earths deal with China will “hopefully” be done by Thanksgiving confident China will honor agreements on rare earths Is this the best he can do? Hoping and expressing confidence. We all know it’s a clown show right now. The hope for investors is

Samsung Electronics has sharply raised prices for several key memory chips, lifting contract rates by 30% to as much as 60% compared with September amid an increasingly acute global shortage driven by the rapid buildout of AI data centres, according to people familiar with the increases. The move underscores how demand for AI-related hardware continues

I think this was originally in the Financial Times, but an ungated version is at Business Times. In summary: China may be buying far more gold than its official data suggests, with analysts estimating actual purchases could exceed reported figures by a factor of ten as Beijing intensifies efforts to reduce reliance on the US

China’s growth outlook is deteriorating as fading export momentum exposes deeper structural weaknesses in the economy, Nomura warned at a recent investment forum. The bank’s chief China economist said the combination of a prolonged property downturn, soft consumer spending and shrinking fixed-asset investment leaves the economy increasingly reliant on policy support. Nomura now expects China’s

China has introduced new rules to curb the export of “zero-mileage” vehicles — brand-new cars registered as used — in a bid to stop automakers overstating sales and claiming tax benefits tied to inflated export volumes. The practice has drawn scrutiny as China becomes the world’s largest car exporter, with domestic manufacturers grappling with intense

As is usual for a Monday morning, market liquidity is very thin until it improves as more Asian centres come online … prices are liable to swing around, so take care out there. Indicative rates only, little changed from late Friday EUR/USD 1.1621 USD/JPY 154.55 GBP/USD 1.3171 USD/CHF 0.7941 USD/CAD 1.4022 AUD/USD 0.6532 NZD/USD 0.5678

New Zealand food prices fell 0.3 percent in October compares with -0.4% in September +4.7% y/y — The New Zealand Food Price Index (FPI) is a measure of the changes in the average price of food items sold in New Zealand. calculated and published monthly by Statistics New Zealand FPI makes up around 19% of

President Donald Trump has continued to make large fixed-income purchases this autumn, adding at least $82 million in municipal and corporate bonds, according to newly released ethics disclosures. Info via a Bloomberg report. The filings, posted by the US Office of Government Ethics after the government shutdown ended, show Trump bought debt issued by major

BusinessNZ New Zealand Performance of Services Index for October 2025 improves to 48.7 from September’s 48.3 this is the 20th month in a row in contraction PSI’s sub-components all below the breakeven 50 mark all below their long-term averages new orders index 49.5, but is farthest below its long-term average activity/sales index rose to 48.9,

Mon: Canadian CPI (Oct), US NY Fed Manufacturing (Nov) Tue: RBA Minutes (Nov), NBH Announcement; New Zealand PPI (Q3), Japanese Trade Balance (Oct) Wed: FOMC Minutes (Oct), Bank of Indonesia Announcement; UK CPI (Oct), EZ Final HICP (Oct) Thu: PBoC LPR; German Producer Prices (Oct), EZ Construction Output (Sep), Canadian Producer Prices (Oct), New Zealand

Fresh ethics filings show the trading violations that pushed Adriana Kugler out of the Fed were far broader and closer to key policy dates than previously known. The Wall Street Journal (gated) with the very dirty story. In summary: Former Federal Reserve Governor Adriana Kugler is facing intensified scrutiny after newly released ethics filings revealed

Logan has said this before but it’s notable that she will be a voter next year. Says she would need to see convincing evidence of inflation coming down or jobs market worsening to support December rate cut Other regional voters are: Hammack (hawk) Kashkari (not a hawk but not as dovish as before) Paulson (said

Berkshire Hathaway trims stake in Apple, buys Google – filing Fed’s Miran: Recent data has made the case for a rate cut even stronger The September non-farm payrolls report will finally be released on Nov 20 Fed’s Logan says she would have preferred to hold rates steady in Oct Fed’s Schmid: Further rate cuts won’t

First of all, there has been virtually no economic data. Secondly, this guy is a broken record. It’s safe to say he’s going to be voting for 50 bps cuts until his term is done. This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

The Trump administration must be seeing polling numbers around inflation hurting. They’re playing some defense lately and now the administration is lowering or removing tariffs on: Coffee Bananas Tomatoes Beef The first two make sense because they don’t grow in the US and the third one is seasonal but the fourth one is puzzling. It’s

Oil has been batted around this week as the market tries to get a sense of what’s happening to Russian barrels and with the overall risk mood in markets. It was beaten up on Wednesday in a relatively calm day and then it rebounded yesterday and today despite the risk rout. Some of that suggests

We’ve got a jobs report on the economic calendar. The BLS announced that it will release the Sept 2025 employment report on November 20, that’s next Thursday at 8:30 am ET. It’s ancient history at this point but it’s a start. This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

If you’re a gold trade, there is an article out today that highlights some very important points. It cites a handful of different analysts but the main point is that no one knows how much gold central banks are buying because any reporting on it is voluntary and they don’t want to be front run.

Risk assets bounced and so did bitcoin but it’s giving it back. Bitcoin is now at a fresh low since May and perilously close to breaking the May low. It’s basically flat year-over-year and down sharply since early October when it hit a record $126K. If you zoom out on the weekly chart, there is

US equity markets slumped hard at the open but recovered to flat within 90 minutes of the open. From there some strong momentum and FOMO in tech names took over and there were strong gains. However late in the day, the enthusiasm fizzed and most markets closed near flat, which also left them close to

Berkshire Hathaway is out with its latest 13F filing and it doesn’t show it show any big deployments of the +$340 billion that Warren Buffett’s firm holds in cash. Some notable highlights: Apple holdings cut by 14.9% (still worth $65 billion) Adds 17.8m shares of Alphabet (Google) worth $4.9 billion at today’s prices Eliminates holdings

USD/JPY has been in a steady uptrend since cratering early in the year due to Trump’s tariff agenda. It bottomed just after Liberation Day in April and has steadily climbed 1300 pips. There are certainly concerns about Japanese policy baked into the yen trade but I think tariffs and trade are the best lens to

The UK Labour government ditched plans to raise income tax after spending weeks laying the groundwork for the move. The problem is that it puts a hole in the government budget. Now there is some spin that they got a better fiscal forecast from the OBR but the bond market isn’t seeing the same thing.

Headlines: Risk selling continues ahead of Wall Street open EUR/CHF finally makes a run for it UK gilt yields surge higher at the open as fiscal concerns mount Sterling jumps on UK improved fiscal forecast from Reeve’s budget watchdog ECB’s Kazaks: The current interest rate level is in line with inflation BOJ says deputy governor

The last time I was writing about David Tepper was 14 months ago when he was on CNBC and talking about loading up on China stocks. That proved to be a very good trade with shares putting in huge gains in one of the best trades of the year. He was already a hedge fund

Fundamental Overview The USD performance this week has been negative despite the decreasing December rate cut odds. We’ve seen also other markets behaving in a strange way, so it’s hard to pinpoint what is really driving the markets at the moment. The focus now is of course on the Fed and the US data ahead

Bitcoin is having a rough day, down $4100 to $94,640. One of the reasons is a report from Arkham data, which shows that Strategy (formerly Microstrategy) has reportedly reduced bitcoin holdings by 47,000, bringing total holdings down to approximately 437,000. The implication is that he has sold some bitcoin, which would be a first. However

It’s starting to look a little rough out there again now. S&P 500 futures have dipped lower to be down 0.7% on the day with tech shares leading the declines once more. Nasdaq futures are down 1.2% with Nvidia marked lower by over 2% in pre-market trading. That being said, broader market sentiment remains less

On the day: S&P 500 -1.6% Nasdaq Comp -2.3% DJIA -1.6% Russell 2000 -2.9% Toronto TSX Comp -1.8% This selloff seemingly came out of nowhere. Michael Burry throwing in the towel is one of those kinds of things that makes people think it’s the top but there wasn’t a real trigger. Yes, there are worries

Prior +0.1% GDP +1.4% vs +1.3% y/y prelim Prior +1.4%; revised to +1.5% There’s no change to the quarterly estimate as the euro area economy holds up in Q3 but stagflation fears are starting to creep in amid the economic situation in Germany. So, that’s the key risk as we look towards the turn of

We have been accelerating our bitcoin purchases If you’re going to be a bitcoin investor, you need to be able to handle the volatility There is an incredible amount of leverage A lot of the OG holders were selling at the 100K level I think we’re building a base here We don’t have any trigger

China house prices October 2025, the downward spiral continues. -2.2% y/y (prior -2.2% also) -0.5% m/m (prior -0.4%) This is a self feeding vicious cycle. Why buy a home when the price will soon fall? The indebted property sector continues to weigh on the Chinese economy. Stimulus and surprisingly resilient exports a counter balance of

Calls the tariff relief for ‘micro areas’ like bananas and coffee Switzerland probably the next deal We’ve essentially reached a deal, will post details on Friday Switzerland will bring down its trade surplus with US The Switzerland deal has been rumored for awhile. It will lower tariffs to 15%. This article was written by Adam

Liquidators for Evergrande Property Services have invited a group of selected bidders to review additional company information as part of an ongoing sale process. The bidders are expected to submit updated non-binding indicative offers by the end of November 2025, though the liquidators stressed the potential transaction is still at a preliminary stage. Any further

U.S. Treasury sold $25 billion of 30 year bonds: High yield 4.694% WI level at the time of the auction 4.684% Tail 1.0 basis points vs 6 month average of 0.3 basis points Bid to cover 2.29X vs 6 month average of 2.36X Directs 14.50% vs 6 month average of 26.0% Indirects 70.99% vs 6

Prior was -1.0% (revised to -1.1%) Wholesale trade +0.6% vs +0.0% exp Prior wholesale trade -1.2% (revised to -1.0%) This is a good number but I wrote yesterday about why it might be time to downgrade the 2026 Canadian dollar outlook. This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

Rate cuts by year-end Fed: 12 bps (50% probability of rate cut at the upcoming meeting) 2026: 81 bps ECB: 1 bps (98% probability of no change at the upcoming meeting) 2026: 7 bps BoE: 19 bps (78% probability of rate cut at the upcoming meeting) 2026: 56 bps BoC: 3 bps (91% probability of

In the European session, we don’t have much on the agenda other than a few low-tier releases like the final French and Spanish inflation reports and the second estimate of the Eurozone Q3 GDP. None of the data is going to change anything for the ECB, so the market reaction is likely to be fairly

S&P 500 futures are down 1.0% and Nasdaq futures down 1.5%. Nvidia is a laggard again, down 2.7% in the pre-market, Palantir down 3.9% and Tesla down 4.3%. What changed in the past two days? The short answer is nothing. The long answer is more complicated. I wrote about this yesterday but people are starting

It’s a rough one in US stock markets today: S&P 500 -1.6% Nasdaq Comp -2.3% Russell 2000 2.5% It’s also a bit of a headscratcher as there is no obvious trigger for the decline. Let’s look at some possible culprits. 1) Chip stocks I lean on the AI theme in part because those are some

No rest for the wicked. The BOJ has come out to clarify that Uchida is still expected to attend next month’s monetary policy meeting on 18-19 December. That after the news broke that he has been hospitalised and will work remotely for “several weeks” in order to treat his leukemia. Wishing Uchida the best of

UBS has upgraded its forecast for China’s electricity demand in the late 2020s, projecting annual growth of around 8% from 2028 to 2030, significantly above the 4–5% market consensus. The bank attributes the stronger outlook to a surge in AI-related data-centre consumption, export-driven industrial activity, and ongoing electrification trends. UBS estimates AI data centres alone

What a comeback. It’s taken barely over an hour to erase the big opening losses. The trigger seems to be that the S&P 500 held last week’s lows. Notably, the chances of a Fed cut in December have worsened in the past day, now down to just 46%. This article was written by Adam Button

Says his concern on inflation is much broader than tariffs alone My rationale for Oct dissent continues to guide me as I head toward December Inflation is too hot, labor market is cooling but largely in balance Schmid isn’t a voter again until 2029 but he certainly won’t be supporting a cut in his final

A private survey data from the American Petroleum Institute (API) showed a headline crude-oil inventory build that came in “less than expected,” according to Eamonn Sheridan. While expectations had been for a +2 million-barrel rise in crude, the API surveyed data implied a smaller build. The official government report from the U.S. Energy Information Administration

Japan’s Economy Minister Kiuchi says a weak yen can push up CPI through import costs. Well, yeah. to the extent that the importer doesn’t’ absorb the higher cost of the imported good/service this is correct. Its pretty basic stuff. Japanese authorities are lobbing out the occasional comment aimed at verbal interevention to support the yen.

Walmart CEO Doug McMillon announced his departure in a surprise move. The 59-year-old is evidently going to retire on January 31, 2026. In a sign of just how well-regarded he is, the shares have immediately fallen 2.8%. It’s something of a surprise due to McMillan’s age and success at the retailer as he’s found ways

The U.S. stock market kicks off the week with notable declines in the technology sector. Tech giants have led the market with broad losses, overshadowing performance across other sectors. Dive into today’s heatmap analysis for detailed insights! 🔍 Sector Overview Technology: A wave of red dominates the tech sector with Nvidia (NVDA) dropping 2.71% and

Fundamental Overview The USD performance this week has been negative despite the decreasing December rate cut odds. We’ve seen also other markets behaving in a strange way, so it’s hard to pinpoint what is really driving the markets at the moment. The focus now is of course on the Fed and the US data ahead

Fundamental Overview The USD performance this week has been negative despite the decreasing December rate cut odds. We’ve seen also other markets behaving in a strange way, so it’s hard to pinpoint what is really driving the markets at the moment. The focus now is of course on the Fed and the US data ahead

The BLS was not able to fully collect the October CPI data. I am hoping the September jobs data can be released next week. The September jobs data was collected, but not processed. This is not new information as White House Press Secretary Leavitt mentioned that we might not get the October NFP and CPI

There are a couple to take note of on the day, as highlighted in bold below. The first one is for EUR/USD at the 1.1625 level. It isn’t one that ties to any technical significance, so the impact of the expiries should be more muted. The pair has been on the ascend since last week

EUR/GBP to a 2.5 year high. The news from earlier: UK PM Starmer and fin min Reeves drop plan to hike income tax rates GBP is taking a hit after the report that Starmer is going to drop plan to hike tax rates More on UK drops income-tax hike plans ahead of November budget Memories

Amazon and Microsoft have thrown their support behind the proposed Gain AI Act, a U.S. bill that would restrict Nvidia and other chipmakers from exporting advanced semiconductors to China and other embargoed markets until domestic demand is fully met. The move marks an unusual policy rift between Nvidia and two of its biggest customers, highlighting

This was already teased at the end of October here: Do keep a watchful eye on EUR/CHF And amid the more negative risk mood today, the dam is finally broken. Depending on your charts, this might mark the lowest in EUR/CHF since 2015 after the SNB decided to pull the rug on markets a decade

The United States and South Korea unveiled a sweeping economic and security agreement on Thursday, outlining hundreds of billions of dollars in Korean investment alongside major U.S. tariff concessions and expanded defence cooperation. According to the White House, Washington has approved US$150 billion of Korean investment in the U.S. shipbuilding sector, as well as a

South Korea’s foreign-exchange authorities pledged to step in to stabilise the won on Friday after the currency slid to its weakest level in seven months, triggering concerns in Seoul about growing volatility and structural pressure on dollar funding. Local dealers told Reuters they suspected authorities had already sold dollars in the market following comments from

The stock market continues to melt away with the NASDAQ index now down over 600 points or 2.58%. The low price of just reached 22798.31. That took the price below its 50 day moving average at 22809.83. The NASDAQ index traded below the 50 day moving average on Friday, but could not sustain momentum. The

The People’s Bank of China (PBOC), China’s central bank, is responsible for setting the daily midpoint of the yuan (also known as renminbi or RMB). The PBOC follows a managed floating exchange rate system that allows the value of the yuan to fluctuate within a certain range, called a “band,” around a central reference rate,

Gold futures are trading at 4,187 during this update, placing the metal directly in bearish territory according to today’s tradeCompass map. The bearish threshold sits at 4,194, while the bullish threshold begins higher at 4,207.7. Anything below 4,194 keeps the short bias active, and traders looking to begin trading gold today may watch for retracements

We will adjust rates if the current situation changes The ECB has fulfilled its inflation target US tariff policy not as bad as initially thought These comments are in line with the ones we’ve been hearing from other ECB members. They’ve been repeating the same stuff over and over again: interest rates are at appropriate

A senior U.S. official says trade negotiations with Switzerland took a significant step forward on Thursday, describing the latest round of talks as “very positive” and signalling that Washington is edging closer to a limited tariff-relief agreement. According to the official, the proposal now on the table would reduce tariffs on Swiss imports if approved

A bit of backdrop from yesterday: USD/JPY settles just under 155 level for now, traders weigh up intervention risks Credit Agricole is arguing that recent developments have pushed USD/JPY towards the pivotal 155 mark and that has prompted verbal warnings from Japan’s finance ministry. However, the current situation still ranks only a 4 out of

Prior +1.2% HICP +0.8% vs +0.9% y/y prelim Prior +1.1% In some relief, core annual inflation is seen falling slightly from 1.3% in September to 1.2% in October. Again, the main problem for the ECB now is Germany as price pressures there are preventing them from really pursuing any further rate cuts. This article was

German DAX futures +0.1% French CAC 40 futures -0.2% UK FTSE futures -0.5% UK markets will be a focus point in the session ahead, as highlighted here earlier. As for the rest of Europe, the setback yesterday looks to leave a bit of a negative aftertaste to what has been an otherwise stellar week for

MUFG says the policy gap between Australia and New Zealand continues to favour the Australian dollar, with rate expectations diverging sharply following recent central-bank moves. The RBA left the cash rate at 3.60% last week, a level the Bank again described as “mildly restrictive” and close to neutral. MUFG notes that stronger Q3 CPI and

Prior +3.0% HICP +3.2% vs +3.2% y/y prelim Prior +3.0% Core annual inflation is seen at 2.5% in October, slightly higher than the 2.4% reading in September. So alongside Germany, the price pressures here are still making a case for the ECB to stay on hold through to year-end. This article was written by Justin

China’s October data underscored intensifying domestic strains, with new home prices sliding 0.45% month-on-month, the sharpest fall in a year, as the country’s property downturn deepens. Industrial production rose 4.9% year-on-year, missing expectations and slowing from September, while retail sales grew a softer 2.9%. Fixed-asset investment fell 1.7% in the year to date, a much

Retail Sales (YoY) +2.9%, a beat expected +2.7%, prior +3.0% Industrial Production (YoY) +4.9%, a decent sized miss expected +5.5%, prior +6.5% Industrial Production YTD (YoY)+6.1% (prior +6.2%) Fixed Asset Investment (YTD) (YoY) -1.7%, worse than expected expected -0.8%, prior -0.5% Unemployment Rate 5.1%, down from September expected 5.2%, prior 5.2% Property investment continues to

One of the biggest news in overnight trading was this report by the Financial Times stating that the UK might drop plans for income tax hikes in the upcoming budget announcement. Amid increasing political uncertainty, this seems to be a last-ditch effort by Starmer and Reeves to try and win back some support. However, it

New York Times reporting that the Trump administration is preparing tariff exemptions in an effort to lower food prices. This follows reports earlier in the week that the administration was seeking to lower prices. The tariffs have gone from ‘no exceptions’ to ongoing TACO over and over again. Tariffs are a woeful tax on consumers

10-year gilt yields are up over 10 bps to kick start the day, jumping up to 4.54% as traders weigh the situation from earlier here. That’s putting fresh pressure on the pound as well with EUR/GBP pushing up by 0.5% to 0.8860 now – its highest since April 2023 – while GBP/USD is also down

Alex Wickham, political editor for Bloomberg UK, posted on his X account that “Rachel Reeves received an improved fiscal forecast from her budget watchdog putting the fiscal hole at £20 billion, leading her to drop plans to raise income tax rates according to people familiar with the matter”. “The latest update from the Office for

It feels like a bit of déjà vu as we also had to deal with a similar setting last Friday. And here we are a week later talking about the same thing again, that being equities being pressured while Bitcoin is threatening a firm break under six figures. On the latter, the technical conditions are

BusinessNZ Performance of Manufacturing Index (PMI) for October 2025 jumps to 51.4 September was 50.1, revised from 49.9 g run average for this indicator is 52.4 4 of the 5 five sub-index values were in expansion during October (employment remained in contraction for the sixth consecutive month BNZ’s Senior Economist Doug Steel: the lift to

People’s Bank of China USD/CNY reference rate is due around 0115 GMT. The People’s Bank of China (PBOC), China’s central bank, is responsible for setting the daily midpoint of the yuan (also known as renminbi or RMB). The PBOC follows a managed floating exchange rate system that allows the value of the yuan to fluctuate

The news is here from earlier: UK PM Starmer and fin min Reeves drop plan to hike income tax rates The UK prime minister and chancellor have ‘ripped up’ earlier proposals to raise the basic and higher income tax rates, officials have said. GBP has taken a hit since. Fiscal fears are nothing new to

The data from China today, retail sales, industrial output and investment will be the focus. Analysts expect the data set will show some slowing in momentum for the economy. Chinese authorities have been providing only incremental stimulus. That’s expected to continue through this final quarter of 2025, with more of the same sort of support

The U.S. State Department has approved a possible US$330 million sale of fighter-jet spare parts and repair components to Taiwan’s de facto embassy, the Taipei Economic and Cultural Representative Office (TECRO). The Pentagon said the package would support the maintenance and sustainment of Taiwan’s existing aircraft fleet, enhancing the island’s readiness amid rising regional security

Japan’s Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi said the government is not in a position to set a new numerical target for the nationwide minimum wage, arguing instead that its role is to create conditions that allow companies to lift pay faster than inflation. Takaichi noted that since the government began signalling interest in formal wage targets,

ICYMI: China home prices steepest fall in a year as industrial, investment data weaken FX intervention – Indian central bank likely selling U.S. dollars to support rupee U.S. approves potential US$330m fighter-jet parts sale to Taiwan Oil surges after drone strike hits Russian Novorossiysk terminal, heightening supply risks China say stabilisation taking hold despite weak

Bitcoin is down over $3000 or -3.10% and has now moved below the natural support at the $100,000 level. The low price reached $98,081. That was the lowest level going back to May 8. The price also fell below the June 22 low and $98,240. Technically, the next adopt target comes in at $96,975. That

China’s October activity data painted a mixed picture, with retail sales modestly beating expectations while industrial output and -investment weakened, underscoring the economy’s uneven momentum as policymakers continue pushing stimulus through the end of the year. Retail sales rose 2.9% year-on-year, supported in part by spending over the National Day and Mid-Autumn Festival holidays. But

The Financial Times is reporting that UK Prime Minister Starmer and Chancellor Reeves have dropped the plan to raise income tax rates. FT is citing officials who have been briefed. This has substantial fiscal implications. The budget is due on November 26. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

Indian central bank likely selling U.S. dollars to anchor rupee above record low Indian rupee INR hit an all-time low at 88.80 This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

Oil prices climbed more than 2% in early Friday trade after a Ukrainian drone strike damaged an oil depot in the Russian Black Sea port of Novorossiysk, one of Moscow’s key export hubs. Brent rose 2.1%, while WTI gained 2.4%. Local authorities in Russia’s Krasnodar region said drone debris struck three residential apartments, a trans-shipment

Biggest daily decline for stock markets since October 10 Fed’s Musalem: Outside of data centers, business investment has been tepid U.S. Treasury sold 25 billion of 30 year bonds at a high yield of 4.694% EIA weekly US crude oil inventories +6413K vs +1960K expected BOE’s Greene reappointed for second term Fed’s Kashkari: Inflation is

Reserve Bank of New Zealand Monetary Policy Committee member Prasanna Gai warned that global forces are reshaping the economic landscape and clouding the outlook, arguing that policymakers must adapt to a world marked by geopolitical friction, climate risks and ongoing supply-chain strains. Speaking at the Ethnic Xchange Symposium in Auckland, Gai said the world is

The third of the 3 coupon auctions will take place at 1 PM when the US treasury auctions off $25 billion of 30 year bonds. The results of the auction will be compared to the components 6 month averages including: Bid to cover, 2.36X Tail, 0.3 basis points Directs (a measure of domestic demand) 26.0%

Prime Minister Keir Starmer and Chancellor Rachel Reeves have abandoned plans to raise UK income tax rates, according to the Financial Times, marking a significant shift just weeks before the 26 November budget. Earlier headlines on this are here: UK PM Starmer and fin min Reeves drop plan to hike income tax rates GBP is

Citigroup economists say the government shutdown continues to distort the U.S. data calendar, but key releases may still trickle out — albeit with caveats. The team noted on Wednesday that September nonfarm payrolls could arrive as early as Friday, though the more realistic window is early next week. October payrolls, by contrast, may take until

Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney had a nickname when he was the governor of the Bank of England: The unreliable boyfriend. It was because he sent mixed signals about what he was going to do next, then didn’t deliver. We’re starting to see the same thing in his role as Prime Minister. This month’s budget

Fed’s Hammack (hawk) is back on the newswire after speaking earlier today and says: The US economy has been remarkably resilient. Hears from contacts inflation too high in moving in wrong direction. Employment side of Fed mandate challenged that amid job market softening. Current unemployment around maximum level. Some of inflation may be tariff driven

.Fed’s Musalem: Outside of data centers, business investment has been tepid Business learning how to run their firms in uncertain environment Critical to return to having readily available official data that has integrity. We are not flying blind though. Have a reasonable picture of what the economy is doing Meanwhile the hawkish comments from Hammack

The GBPUSD is moving to the new highs and in the process has now moved above the highs from Monday and Tuesday and the 38.2% of the move down from the mid-October high. That area comes in between 1.31855 to 1.31902 . The price is now trading just above 1.3200. The price initially moved lower

All the votes count right now at the MPC, which voted 5-4 last month to hold rates unchanged. Green was one of the 5 votes to leave rates unchanged and said: “I am not convinced the monetary policy stance is meaningfully restrictive. There is huge uncertainty around the neutral rate, but as we approach it

The major stock indices continue to be under pressure led by the NASDAQ index which moved down close to 2% before bouncing modestly. The current price is down -1.75%. The S&P index is down -1.07% and the Dow industrial average is down -0.82%.. Shares of Nvidia continue to move lower as has concerns about the

Here is the key line in the article: “I am worried about the labor market,” Hammack said. But looking at the balance between the labor market and inflation, “we’ve got this persistent high inflation that is sticking around, when all is said and done it will be the better part of a decade.” This is

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JP Morgan argues that the current Swiss franc strength has gone of for more than expected, with EUR/CHF in particular looking overstretched to the downside considering the drop this week. The firm says that the fall is partly also due to hedge funds, real money, and systematic buyers returning to the franc but notes that

IN the video yesterday, I spoke to the 1.4000 level (see: USD Technicals: The USDCAD has set a floor this eek at 1.4000. That is good to know). Since then, the price did move below that floor level (yesterday in the NA afternoon), and found selling pressure. However, the low price yesterday fell short of

Prior +8.4% New yuan loans ¥220.0 billion vs ¥500.0 billion expected Prior ¥1.29 trillion New bank loans underwhelmed in October after a modest pickup in September and is a miss on estimates once again. This continues to underscore that private demand conditions remain weak and Beijing still has a tall task in trying to stimulate

Getting mixed signals from the economy Some sectors of the labor market do look like they’re under pressure More to come This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

Prior was -+5202K Gasoline -945K vs -1888K expected Distillates -637K vs -2028K expected Private data from late yesterday: Crude +1300K Gasoline -1400K Distillates +944K Yesterday was a rough day in the oil complex and this won’t make it any better, though the initial reaction is only slightly lower. This article was written by Adam Button

Japan Prime Minister Takaichi: we will strive to create strong economy so that tax revenues rise without tax hikes. Sounds great. What will actually happen is the fiscal boost will help the economy and government debt will surge alongside. The story never changes. Yen bearish. More from Takaichi: Govt will consider revising primary balance target

Westpac: October job rebound lets RBA look past September weakness, stay inflation-focused China set for 5% growth in 2026 on strong exports, Macquarie’s out of consensus call says Trump has signed the bill to reopen the US government Australian dollar up, shares down. Strong jobs report destroys hope for RBA rate cut. Tokyo Stock Exchange

The dip buyers tried to make a stand in US equity markets today but couldn’t crack the opening gap lower. Now we’re treatening the government reopening gap on Monday, which is at 6771. With this, the US dollar is selling off as well as cable and the euro make gains. Some notable losers: DIS -8.5%

Japan Exchange Group (JPX), operator of the Tokyo Stock Exchange, is examining new measures to rein in a rise in listed companies that accumulate large cryptocurrency holdings as part of their treasury strategy, according to people familiar with the discussions. Regulators are becoming concerned that the growing number of digital-asset treasury (DAT) firms poses governance

The stock market is experiencing a day of contrasting fortunes, with energy stocks surging while some technology titans face significant declines. A close look at the market heatmap reveals key insights into the current trading dynamics, helping investors navigate today’s complex market landscape. 📈 Energy Sector: Lighting Up ExxonMobil (XOM) shines with a notable gain

Fundamental Overview Silver, much like gold, has been rallying strongly recently with the price now trading near all-time highs. There’s nothing fundamental driving the price action as a short squeeze looks like the most reasonable culprit. We had soft weekly ADP data on Tuesday but if that was the reason, we would have seen a

The AUDUSD has had a volatile up and down trading day after the better than expected jobs report earlier in the day and risk-off flows out of the AUD more recently. The jobs report showed: Unemployment Rate 4.3% Expected 4.4%, prior 4.5% Employment Change +42.2K Expected +20K, prior +14.9K Participation Rate 67.0% Prior 67% Part-Time

China’s economy could maintain a 5% growth rate in 2026, driven largely by unexpectedly strong export performance, according to Macquarie economists. In a new note, they highlight that exports have been the biggest upside surprise this year, rising 5% year-to-date through October despite the drag from Trump-era tariffs. That pace is only slightly below the

It’s a rough one in the Magic Kingdom today. Shares of Disney are down 8.8% shortly after the open following today’s earnings report. That sends them to the lowest level since May. The numbers (fiscal Q4 2025) Adjusted EPS: $1.11 vs 1.05 estimate Revenue: $22.5B, flat y/y and just under the $22.75B street view. Streaming

Fundamental Overview Gold broke above another key resistance yesterday extending the gains above the 4,200 level. There’s nothing fundamental driving the price action as a short squeeze looks like the most reasonable culprit. We had soft weekly ADP data on Tuesday but if that was the reason, we would have seen a stronger reaction already

There’s not a whole lot in it to start the session but we’re seeing the dollar drop a little at the balance. EUR/USD is up 0.2% to 1.1610 while GBP/USD is flat again at 1.3130 after a drop to 1.3100 earlier on the softer Q3 UK GDP report. Even USD/JPY is back down to 154.65

Eyes are on bitcoin as it risks falling below $100,000. It’s at the lows of the day, down about $1000 to $100,900, touching just below yesterday’s low. I don’t like the look of that head-and-shoulders on the hourly chart but $100,000 isn’t the really important support level lately as it tested and held $99K twice

Expectations for the October Australian jobs report due today are for a lower unemployment rate than in the previous month and also for jobs to gain more strongly than they did in September. If that’s what we get its another reason to add to the pile the Reserve Bank of Australia is amassing to not

US economy has cautious optimism There is a premium on waiting to decide rates until you have as much info as possible Inflation is on its way down but still stubborn The labor market has slowed quite a bit Dec cut odds are down to just 54%. She still sounds inclined to support a cut

Gold was sold heavily early in North American trade, reversing earlier strong gains. It looks like it got caught in a risk-off downdraft as US equity markets have stumbled out of the gates. Before this dip, gold was looking nice technically as it cruised through the $4200 zone of resistance. It’s choppy now and dipped

Headlines: Dollar a touch on the softer side in European morning trade USD/JPY settles just under 155 level for now, traders weigh up intervention risks Gold Technical Analysis: Shutdown ended, US data in focus next ECB’s Villeroy: Victory over inflation in France looks lasting UK Q3 preliminary GDP +0.1% vs +0.2% q/q expected UK September

Fundamental Overview The hawkish repricing triggered by Fed Chair Powell’s uncertainty on a December cut coupled with the intensifying overnight funding pressure due to prolonged government shutdown weighed on the stock market in the last week. The market bounced strongly on the expectations of the end of the shutdown on Friday and extended the gains

There is a little bit more concern that labor demand will continue to slow Services inflation has not been declining at a steady clip Her comments highlight why the Dec 10 Fed decision is such a tough one to handicap. What I find more interesting at the moment is that January now also isn’t priced

Does not see much of an argument not to cut rates Will get jobs market, not unemployment for one month of data This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

Update: Looks like we will have to wait another week. Initial jobless claims won’t be released today. America is back! Well, at least the government is back open and that means data is back on the economic calendar. Now I haven’t totally confirmed that it will be released but it looks like it will come

The USDCHF corrected higher in the Asian Pacific session after falling below the natural support at the 0.8000 level yesterday. The corrective move higher saw the pair move up to test the 200 bar MA on the 4-hour chart at 0.7995 – just short of the 0.8000 level – and fell from that level. Sellers

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The US yields are higher by about 2 basis points, but the USD is lower vs all the major currencies to start the new day. Looking at the USD’s moves vs the major currencies, they are showing: EUR -0.25% JPY-0.11% GBP -0.38% CHF -0.33% CAD -0.06$ AUD -0.40% NZD -0.05% In the video above, I

The rotation continues with the 5 of 7 Mag 7 stocks lower while the Dow 30 rises. The S&P is little changed: A look at the closing levels shows: Dow Industrial Average rose 326.86 points or 0.68% at 48254.82. It is the first close above 48K S&P rose 4.31 points or 0.06% at 6850.92 Nasdaq

Fundamental Overview The hawkish repricing triggered by Fed Chair Powell’s uncertainty on a December cut coupled with the intensifying overnight funding pressure due to prolonged government shutdown weighed on the stock market in the last week. The market bounced strongly on the expectations of the end of the shutdown on Friday and extended the gains

The European Union is preparing a proposal for the United States outlining how to implement the next stage of the trade agreement struck in August between Ursula von der Leyen and President Donald Trump, according to people familiar with the plan. The move comes ahead of EU trade chief Maros Šefčovič’s meetings in Washington later

Interest in proprietary trading, more commonly known as prop trading, has grown exponentially over the past five years. Originally more of a niche product for professionals, it has seen rapid adoption amongst retail traders owing to how it makes online markets more accessible to a wider audience. This growth has led to the prop trading

The Japanese yen continues to struggle in trading this week, enabling USD/JPY to make a push higher back to the 155.00 level. That’s the first time since early February that the pair has moved back up to test the figure level above. As with big round figures, they tend to take on more importance with

The rebound is continuing for gold with price up another 0.4% today to $4,214 currently. After a drop under $4,000 and a tug of war there since the end of October, dip buyers are certainly showing much conviction in pushing price back up above $4,200 currently. The question though, is there scope for further gains

I’ve repeated this often and I will repeat it again: Short selling is so hard, that if someone actually gets it right, they make a movie about them. And it turns out that if you get it right, it’s more a case of luck and timing than skill, because none of the people in the

Glover brings a wealth of expertise in auditing and hands-on FX product control. OnePrime, a provider of CFD liquidity and custom technology solutions to the brokerage sector and part of the OneRoyal Group run by Royal Financial Trading Pty Ltd, announces the appointment of long-serving senior executive Mark Glover. This follows OneRoyal’s Katalina Pantea’s extension

OPEC sees a nearly-balanced oil market in 2026 Supreme Court will hear oral arguments about firing Lisa Cook on Jan 21 White House says October CPI and jobs data likely never to be released Canadian consumer spending tracker continues to show resilience US sells 10-year notes at 4.074% vs 4.068% WI Fed’s Miran: Fed Policy

The Trump administration says full SNAP benefits should begin flowing again within 24 hours of the government reopening, offering long-awaited relief to nearly 42 million low-income Americans hit by the shutdown. USDA spokesperson Alec Varsamis said most states will receive funds to distribute benefits almost immediately once President Donald Trump signs the House-approved funding deal,

In the European session, the main highlight was the UK GDP report. The data was generally weaker than expected but with the market already expecting a cut in December, it didn’t change much. In the American session, we don’t have anything on the agenda other than a couple of Fed speakers. I’m not sure but

Nothing new here from Villeroy who also spoke yesterday here. Villeroy has been leaning on the dovish side for several months, but this comment sounds like he’s fine with the current monetary policy and doesn’t see the need of another cut anymore. This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at investinglive.com.

Prior +0.1%; revised to 0.0% Services +0.2% vs +0.1% m/m expected Prior 0.0%; revised to -0.1% Industrial output -2.0% vs -0.2% m/m expected Prior +0.4%; revised to +0.3% Manufacturing output -1.7% vs -0.3% m/m expected Prior +0.7%; revised to +0.6% Construction output +0.2% vs +0.1% m/m expected Prior -0.3%; revised to -0.5% Despite modest growth

Switzerland is making a high-level push to wrap up a new trade agreement with the United States, with Economy Minister Guy Parmelin and State Secretary Helene Budliger Artieda travelling to Washington for final talks, according to Bloomberg. The negotiations aim to secure lower U.S. tariffs on a wide range of Swiss exports, a long-standing priority

USD/JPY briefly surged through the 155.00 level on Wednesday, touching 155.05 after a break above 154.50 triggered a wave of sizeable stop-loss buying. Momentum accelerated as stops layered above 155.00 were flushed out, before fresh offers just beyond the figure finally slowed the move. The jump has refocused attention on Japan’s tolerance for renewed yen

2025 world oil demand growth forecast seen at 790,000 bpd (previously 710,000 bpd) 2026 average world oil demand growth forecast seen at 770,000 bpd (previously 700,000 bpd) 2025 world oil supply seen rising by 3.1 mil bpd (previously 3.0 mil bpd) 2026 world oil supply seen at 2.5 mil bpd (previously 2.4 mil bpd) With

Prior -1.2%; revised to -1.1% Euro area industrial output bounced back at the end of Q3 but less than estimated. The breakdown shows an increase in production for intermediate goods (+0.3%), energy (+1.2%), and capital goods (+0.3%). That is slightly offset by declines in production for durable consumer goods (-0.5%) and non-durable consumer goods (-2.6%).

Crude oil futures are settling at $58.49. The high price today reached $61.06. The low price was at $58.30. Signs of a global supply glut outweighed geopolitical and demand supports. The main catalyst was OPEC’s revision of its Q3 market estimate. They now project 400,000 bpd deficit to a 500,000 bpd surplus.Whoops. Both U.S. output

Prior +0.3% GDP +1.3% vs +1.4% y/y expected Prior +1.4% The UK economy is seen grinding towards stagnation in Q3, with softer growth recorded in both the August and September months. This alongside the poor labour market data will just heighten odds of the BOE having to cut rates again in December. The temperature is

Trump’s press secretary Karoline Leavitt says he willsign a bill to REOPEN the government and speak LIVE from the Oval Office at 9:45PM ET Earlier: US House votes to reopen the government. Trump to sign soon This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

Japan finance minister Katayama: JGBs are held predominantly by domestic investors so hard to foresee Japan defaulting on its debt Hope BOJ guides monetary policy to sustainably and stably achieve 2% inflation target As prime minister has said, govt’s view is that Japan has yet to see inflation sustainably hit BOJ target If yen makes

There are a couple to take note of on the day, as highlighted in bold below. The first ones are for EUR/USD with the main chunk seen near the 1.1590-00 level. The expiries may play a role in limiting upside movement, at least before rolling off later in the day. As such, that could trap

Eurostoxx +0.2% Germany DAX flat France CAC 40 +0.5% UK FTSE -0.2% Spain IBEX +0.1% Italy FTSE MIB +0.5% This comes as US futures are also keeping steadier for now, with S&P 500 futures up 0.1%. There has been a steady rotation out of the Mag 7 in Wall Street this week, so that’s keeping

The U.S. House of Representatives has voted to advance legislation that would reopen the federal government, moving the measure one step closer to final approval. A majority backed the procedural motion on Wednesday, allowing the bill to proceed to a final vote later in the day. The package, once passed, would end the weeks-long shutdown

Trump will sign the bill imminently to reopen the US government. bill passed the Senate 60-40 earlier this week bill then passed in the House 222-209 just now Earlier: Full SNAP benefits to restart within 24 hours once shutdown ends, USDA says This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

New Zealand retail spending showed a modest lift in October, with seasonally adjusted electronic card transactions rising 0.2% on the month, according to Statistics New Zealand. prior -0.5% Annual growth was firmer, with actual card spending up 0.8% from a year earlier. prior +1.0% While the figures point to slightly improving momentum, analysts say the

German DAX futures +0.3% UK FTSE futures +0.2% The positive momentum continues for European stocks, with US futures also helping to keep the calm so far today. S&P 500 futures are up 0.2% after the middling performance yesterday, largely owing to a rotation out of the Mag 7. Nvidia shares continue to struggle for direction,

Japan’s wholesale inflation eased slightly in October, with producer prices rising 2.7% from a year earlier, down from a revised 2.8% in September, according to Bank of Japan data. Data post is here: Japan October PPI +0.4% m/m (expected +0.3%) & +2.7% y/y (expected +2.5%) The slowdown was driven partly by falling import costs, with

Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda said the central bank is working to secure a stable, wage-supported inflation cycle as it guides the economy toward steady, broad-based growth. Speaking Wednesday, Ueda pointed to resilient consumption driven by stronger household incomes and improving labour-market conditions, and noted that underlying inflation is gradually accelerating toward the BOJ’s

Trump has now signed the bill to reopen the US government. Shut down is over. Until the next one. This bill funds the government until the end of January. – Trump admits a lot of damage has been done: estimates it cost US$1.5tln damage will take weeks and months to totally calculate calls for termination

The People’s Bank of China (PBOC), China’s central bank, is responsible for setting the daily midpoint of the yuan (also known as renminbi or RMB). The PBOC follows a managed floating exchange rate system that allows the value of the yuan to fluctuate within a certain range, called a “band,” around a central reference rate,

Earlier we had the news that: White House says October CPI and jobs data likely never to be released But says September will be. Earlier: US House of Representatives voted to advance legislation to reopen the federal government This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

The headlines showing a strong jobs market in Australia have hit local equities Australian shares fell to their lowest in three months, S&P/ASX 200 to its lowest since August 5 after its sharpest fall in 7 weeks The data: Australian October unemployment rate 4.3% (expected 4.4%, prior 4.5%) unemployment rate dropped, employment change is twice

The Reserve Bank of Australia has a two prong mandate: price stability (keep inflation in a 2 to 3% band or so) full employment (a stable currency if you insist on a third prong) While inflation has been rising here in Australia, a concern for the RBA, the labour market had been showing signs of

This is a strong headline jobs report, the unemployment rate dropped, employment change is twice what was expected, full time jobs surged. The RBA is increasingly worried about rising inflation. This report will do nothing to ease those fears. No need for the RBA to be thinking about a rate cut any time soon. Unemployment

Westpac said October’s stronger labour force figures largely cancel out the weaker-than-expected result seen in September, leaving the broader story of a gradually softening jobs market intact. The bank argues that the underlying trend remains one of “less tight” labour conditions rather than any meaningful shift in momentum. The economists noted that RBA Governor Michele

More comments from Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda underscored the central bank’s readiness to manage bond markets flexibly while maintaining a view that inflation dynamics are evolving in line with economic fundamentals. Ueda said long-term interest rates are primarily shaped by market expectations for future short-term rates and shifts in term premiums. He added

People’s Bank of China USD/CNY reference rate is due around 0115 GMT. The People’s Bank of China (PBOC), China’s central bank, is responsible for setting the daily midpoint of the yuan (also known as renminbi or RMB). The PBOC follows a managed floating exchange rate system that allows the value of the yuan to fluctuate

Melbourne Institute data for Australian Inflation Expectations (November 2025) 4.5% prior 4.8% This data point tens not to have too much imapct on financial marekts upon release This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

Bank of Japan data for the Corporate Goods Price Index (PPI) +0.4% m/m expected +0.3%, prior +0.3% +2.7% y/y expected +2.5%, prior +2.7% This will keep the Bank of Japan on the alert for rate rises, politics allowing! This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

Via oilprice.com — Expectations I had seen centred on: Headline crude +2 mn barrels Distillates -2 mn bbls Gasoline -1.9 mn — This data point is from a privately-conducted survey by the American Petroleum Institute (API). It’s a survey of oil storage facilities and companies The official report is due Wednesday morning US time. Shut

Federal Reserve Bank of Boston President Susan Collins with further remarks, from the Q&A after her earlier speech. Collins said the central bank’s recent decision to “dial two notches down” on interest rates was appropriate given the balance of risks, but stressed that inflation remains too elevated for policymakers to abandon a mildly restrictive stance.

The European Union is pushing to bring forward a bloc-wide handling fee on small online parcels from platforms like Shein, Temu and Alibaba, aiming to introduce the charge in early 2026 — more than two years ahead of the current timeline, the Financial Times reported. In a letter to EU finance ministers, trade commissioner Maros

In previous shutdowns, the BLS eventually released CPI and jobs data. The thing is, October is going to be a bad month for jobs data because of government job losses. The November report will show the return of those jobs and make it look hotter than otherwise. That will tilt the Fed towards a more-hawkish

Japanese companies are broadly upbeat about the business outlook under new Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi, though many still worry about the risks posed by her minority government, according to a Reuters corporate survey. About 43% of firms expect business conditions to improve under Takaichi’s leadership, compared with just 3% who see deterioration. The new prime

Microsoft is preparing to fold OpenAI’s custom AI chip designs into its own semiconductor strategy, with CEO Satya Nadella confirming that the company will use OpenAI’s system-level innovations to strengthen its in-house development. Speaking on a podcast released Wednesday, Nadella said Microsoft now has access to OpenAI’s chip and hardware research through 2030 and continued

The USDJPY moved higher during the Asian session, breaking above the prior ceiling near 154.47 that had capped gains since late October. Since that breakout, the pair has seen two pullbacks — including one in the North American session — both of which found support near that former ceiling, confirming the level’s shift from resistance

Fed’s Collins Says High Bar for Further Rate Cuts as Inflation Risks Persist Boston Federal Reserve President Susan Collins signalled a more cautious stance on monetary easing, saying it will likely be appropriate to keep interest rates on hold “for some time” as policymakers assess elevated inflation and an uncertain labour-market outlook. Collins, who supported

I can’t imagine that a ruling on Cook is a super-high priority for the Supreme Court so it’s likely she will still have the job until mid-2026. This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

More from Atlanta Fed Pres. Bostic (nonvoting member who will resign from his position in 2026). Firms are time the Fed that policy is restrictive particularly in housing and other rate sensitive industries There is a debate about the extent to which productivity is rising This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com.

Government shutdown will impact this quarter GDP Supply-side policies will allow growth that inflation. Agreed with previous to Fed meeting said it was time to cut rates. If I am at FOMC, are more likely to move to cut rates, while Powell is less likely. Fed more likely to do 25 basis point cut. If

Fundamental Overview The USD remains weak across the board as market participants now await the key US data releases with the government shutdown expected to end this week. Yesterday, we saw some more weakness following soft weekly ADP data that showed job losses in the second half of October. The initial weakness didn’t hold though

Fed’s Miran is speaking and said: Fed policy is to restrictive Yesterday Miran spoke on CNBC and said that inflation data is becoming stale and continues to move lower, with evidence since September suggesting the Fed should be more dovish than its earlier stance. He argued that policy should be forward-looking rather than reactive, noting

RBC is out with its latest consumer spending tracker for Canada and reports on a second strong month. Three month average of core retail sales +0.5% m/m vs +0.7% in Sept Most of October’s spending strength came from entertainment and arts Almost all of the increase in entertainment and arts spending came from Ontario, which

The UK’s FTSE 100 and Spain’s Ibex closed at record levels once again. Italy’s FTSE MIB close at its highest level since 2000. All the major indices in Europe or higher on the day. A snapshot of the closing levels shows: German DAX, +1.22% France’s CAC, +1.04% UK’s FTSE 100 +0.12% Spain’s Ibex +1.39% Italy’s

In the post and video from yesterday (see: Nvidia Technicals: Nvidia is down sharply. What has done to the technicals?“), I pointed out that the price of Nvidia moved below the 50 and 100 hour MA, tilting the bias to the downside today, the price opened higher. At the open today, the price of Nvidia

When reserves reach ample levels, gradual bond buying will begin again Renewed balance sheet expansion is technical, not monetary policy Says he is closely watching markets for liquidity signals Standing repo facility can be used without stigma I don’t see any signal here for markets. This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

That’s a soft sale. 0.8 bps tail Bid to cover 2.43 vs 2.48 prior That should stop today’s rally in its tracks. This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

The U.S. Treasury will auction off $42 billion of 10 year notes at 1 PM ET. The results of the auction will be compared to the 6 month averages of the major components, and could impact the price of treasuries/yields. Stronger demand leads to lower yields generally speaking. The six-month averages of the major components

Bitcoin is under some solid pressure and I see that as a bad omen for the rest of the risk complex. Bitcoin started the day nicely after some late selling yesterday. It bounced to $105,600 and that’s where it traded early in New York hours but it’s since come under some real pressure and is

Bostic will retire at the end of his five-year term on January 28. They will appoint a committee to find a replacement. Atlanta gets a vote in 2027. The Fed’s Paulson also just published remarks but she doesn’t speak about monetary policy. This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

German DAX futures +0.4% French CAC 40 futures +0.3% UK FTSE futures flat This comes after the more solid showing yesterday, with Wall Street also seeing a rotation out of tech with the Dow posting a record close while the Nasdaq slumped lower. The latter owes much to a decline in Nvidia, with this news

The AUDUSD is trading up and down this week. Today, the buyers made a play but the momentum stalled. More specifically, the AUDUSD tested and broke above the 100-day moving average twice today, marking a shift from Monday and Tuesday when price action consistently stalled near that same level. The 100-day MA currently sits at

Recent inflation driven by food prices, could hurt the economy Will work closely with BOJ to ensure Japan sees inflation driven by wages Hopes for BOJ to conduct policy so that Japan sees sustainable achievement of price target With the wrong policies, there is a risk Japan can slide back into deflation And that will

As she embarks on her fiscal path to push forward with big stimulus and spending, Sanae Takaichi wants the BOJ to keep interest rates as they are for as long as possible. And that begins with the next decision in December. She has made it relatively clear in her not so subtle remarks including the

IN the kickstart video, I spoke about the EURUSD having resistance against the 1.1594 level, then support against the rising 100 hour moving average. The US session did moved to new session lows and in the process tested the rising 100 hour moving average where buyers leaned, stalled the fall and pushed the price back

Gold is at the highs of the day in an impressive run. it’s up $66 to $4191 after starting the US trading day flat. At current levels, gold is testing some important resistance in the form of the $4200 big figure but also the 61.8% retracement of the late-October drop. This article was written by

Rotation. Rotation. Rotation. That is how the day is ending as the dust settled. The money flowed into the bricks and mortar stocks in the Dow 30. The losers were the technology stocks of the Nasdaq. The Dow 30 stocks were led by: Merck & Co (MRK) +4.84% Amgen (AMGN) +4.57% Nike (NKE) +3.87% Johnson

The GBPUSD moved lower earlier today after the expected employment data. The decline saw the price move back below the 38.2% retracement of the move down from the mid-October high at 1.31422, but find support buyers near the converged 100 and 200 hour moving averages near 1.3119. The price bounced back above the 38.2% retracement

The USDCHF has moved lower this week — reflecting a stronger Swiss franc — following reports that the U.S. and Switzerland are nearing an agreement to reduce tariffs on Swiss imports to the U.S. from 39% to 15%. Back in August, the Trump administration unexpectedly imposed the steep 39% rate in response to what it

Bostic announced his retirement this year and he isn’t a voter but it sounds like he’s going to advocate for leaving rates unchanged in December. Sees more urgent risks to price stability despite shifts in labor market Favors keeping Fed funds steady until we see clear evidence of inflation moving towards 2% target Atlanta Fed

Fed divisions deepen as policymakers split on inflation versus jobs. Info via the Wall Street Journal, in brief: The Federal Reserve’s once-united front on policy direction has fractured, with officials increasingly divided over whether stubborn inflation or a weakening labour market poses the greater threat to the economy — a split without much precedent under

OPEC is out with its monthly report and sees a marginal surplus of 20k bpd next year, assuming it keeps pumping at the October level. That contrasts with last month’s report that had a deficit of 50k bpd and the Sept report at -700k bpd. OPEC hiked production quotas by 137k bpd in each of

Market index 334.2 vs 332.3 prior Purchase index 172.7 vs 163.3 prior Refinance index 1247.5 vs 1290.8 prior 30-year mortgage rate 6.34% vs 6.31% prior This is never a market moving release. Mortgage applications are generally inversely correlated to mortgage rates. This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at investinglive.com.

Fundamental Overview The USD remains weak across the board as market participants now await the key US data releases with the government shutdown expected to end this week. Yesterday, we saw some more weakness following soft weekly ADP data that showed job losses in the second half of October. The initial weakness didn’t hold though

China is designing a new export-licensing system that would allow it to fast-track shipments of rare-earth magnets and other sensitive materials to civilian buyers while blocking access to companies linked to the U.S. military. The Wall Street Journal (gated) carried the latest on this. In brief: According to people familiar with the plan, Beijing’s “validated

Australian data Australia Home Loans Value Q3 +9.6% q/q, fastest rise since Q1 2021 expected +2.6%, prior +2.0% Owner-Occupier Loan Value +4.7% q/q prior +2.4% Investor Loan Value +17.6% q/q prior +1.4% This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

The USD is higher vs all the major currencies with gains of 0.05% (vs CAD and EUR) up to 0.38% (vs the JPY). Most of the changes are between 0.05% and 0.20%, so there is not huge moves. In the video above, I take a look at 3 of the major currency pairs – the

Chinese banks reportedly issuing ‘phantom loans’ to hit targets amid weak economy Chinese banks are reportedly resorting to “quick-lend-and-recover” tactics to meet government-mandated lending quotas as real-world demand for credit falters in the slowing economy. According to bankers, this practice involves issuing short-term loans, only to reclaim them weeks later. The strategy helps banks meet

Prior was -1.2% Total value of building permits at $11.7 billion Residential +4.8% Non-residential +4.0% Q3 permits down -5.4% There has been a slow, steady decline in inflation-adjusted building permits since 2020. In the latest budget, the Federal Government splurged on spending for capital projects but that’s going to take awhile to get into the

What you know as a trader is an advantage. For the USDCAD what I know is that this week, there has been willing buyers at the 1.4000 area (up to 1.4007). Lows on Monday, Tuesday and again today has come in against that level/area. Knowing that allows traders to define a bias (above and the

The drop earlier at the tail end of Asia trading saw price briefly nudge under $4,100. However, that downside shove was a brief one with dip buyers coming in again around the figure level as they did yesterday. That’s starting to see a bit of a line in the sand for gold in trading this

McDonald’s warns SNAP disruptions may hit low-income diners as shutdown drags on Info via Dow Jones/Market Watch. McDonald’s has warned that the partial freeze in U.S. food assistance payments is adding strain on low-income consumers, as the government shutdown continues to disrupt Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP) benefits across the country. Speaking on the company’s

The prop trading industry has long relied on traders paying upfront fees to access capital, while firms profit regardless of traders’ success. PropFunding.com is overturning this dynamic by replacing challenge fees with data-driven funding and transparent incentives—a model that could reshape the economics of prop trading. Rethinking Incentives in the Prop Space Traditional prop firms

He Lifeng was appointed to lead US trade negotiations in May. He made the comments in Xinhua and that suggests he sees a period of stability in the US relationship, though no one really knows with Trump. This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

Colder weather forecasts have boosted US natural gas prices to some of the best levels since the 2023 spike but there could be more to come. Natty is up 5% today but it’s one of the few things directly touching the AI investment supercycle that hasn’t spiked. It certainly could and demand for power isn’t

How Solitics’ AI Expert is turning campaign ideation into measurable impact in minutes, not weeks. In the FX space, relevance is currency, and time is the cost of staying competitive. Yet despite rising investments in marketing technology, many brokers still struggle with a fundamental gap: the distance between what they want to do and how

Trump to revive offshore drilling in California, Alaska and Gulf in major policy reversal Info via a Wall Street Journal (gated) report. The Trump administration is preparing to unveil a sweeping proposal to allow oil drilling off the California coast, as well as in federal waters near Alaska and the Eastern Gulf of Mexico, according

Sector Overview: Mixed Fortunes Across the Heatmap Today’s stock market heatmap paints a varied picture with sectors showing divergent paths. The technology sector exhibits a slight uptick, driven by gains in semiconductor stocks. AMD leads with a rise of 7.11%, and NVDA contributes a 0.9% gain, suggesting investor confidence in chip makers despite broader concerns.

Goldman Sachs is out with its latest jobs growth tracker and it shows a decline of 50K jobs. Compound that with the Challenger numbers this week, today’s ADP reading and there is a compelling case for some weakness in the month. That said, a big portion of Goldman’s modelled decline in jobs is due to