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The Fed will release new forecasts today. Here was what they expected back in March

Dot plot leaned narrowly towards three rate cuts (two expected today)Median at 3.1% for end-20252024 GDP growth median +1.2%2025 GDP +1.9%Unemployment rate 4.6% in 2024 and 2025 (currently at 4.0%)2024 PCE inflation 2.5%2025 PCE inflation 2.1%2024 core PCE 2.6% 2025 core PCE 2.1%

I don’t see big changes here but I’d expect upside risks to 2024 GDP and downside risks to 2024 unemployment. I could see inflation this year ticking up but the 2025 numbers should stay low.

This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

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