Headline measures:
Prior y/y 3.3%m/m -0.1% versus +0.1% expected Prior m/m 0.1% Unrounded % vs +0.313% m/m prior
Core measures and details:
Core CPI m/m +0.1% versus +0.2% expected. Prior month 0.2%Unrounded core +0.065% vs +0.163% prior Core CPI y/y +3.3% versus 3.4% expected. Prior month was 3.4%Supercore m/m -0.054% vs -0.045% priorSupercore y/y +4.651% vs +4.8% y/y priorShelter +0.2% versus +0.4% prior monthShelter y/y +5.2% vs +5.4% priorReal weekly earnings +0.3% vs +0.4% prior Food +0.2% m/m vs +0.1% m/m priorFood +2.2% y/y vs +2.1% y/y priorEnergy -2.0% m/m vs -0.2% m/m priorEnergy +1.0% vs +3.7% y/y priorRents +0.3% m/m vs +0.4% priorOwner’s equivalent rent +0.3% vs +0.4% priorMotor vehicle insurance +0.9% vs -0.1% m/m prior
Before the report, the market was pricing 49 bps of easing before year end prior to the report with a 70% chance of a cut in September. Those numbers are now 57.5 bps and a 92% chance of a September cut.
A couple numbers look wonky here with used autos -1.5% m/m and airline fares -5.0% m/m but the overall picture is unambiguous in a shift towards lower inflation.
This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.
