August 2024

August 2024 official Chinese PMIs from the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS): Composite is 50.1 prior50.2 August Manufacturing PMI 49.1 expected 49.5, prior49.4 Services 50.3 expected 50.0, prior 50.2 — The Chinese economy has been showing, and continues to show, a patchy and uneven recovery. Key trouble spots include: an uncertain property sector outlook, the

There was no lack of drama in the final day of equity trading in what was a wild ride in August. The S&P 500 opened strongly and then gave it all back to trade in negative territory at midday. However some steady bids emerged in the afternoon before a massive wave of buying late. Much

Goldman Sachs plans to layoff 3-4% of its workforce or between 1300 and 1800 people, according to the WSJ. This shouldn’t come as a surprise as the company trims 2-7% of its workforce annually on performance factors. The layoffs have started and will continue through the autumn. The cutthroat culture finally appears to be making

US July core PCE +2.6% y/y vs +2.7% expectedOPEC+ is likely to proceed with a planned gradual production increase from Oct — reportUS August UMich final consumer sentiment 67.9 vs 68.0 expectedCanada Q2 GDP +2.1% q/q annualized vs +1.6% expectedDallas Fed trimmed mean PCE price index for July 1.7% versus 1.8% in JuneUS weekly Baker

WTI crude posted an ugly finish to the week, falling $2.33 to $73.57 on Friday. Oil rallied strongly to start the week and was still holding in positive territory early today but slumped when Reuters, citing sources, reported that OPEC still plans to start gradually bringing on production in October. That led to a heavy

The main driver of US dollar strength over the past number of years was ‘US exceptionalism’. That’s meant stronger growth and higher US interest rates. The stronger growth narrative is still in place — even if it requires a deficit at 7% of GDP — but Fed Chairman Jerome Powell has deconstructed the second part

We’ve been in a raging four-year bull market in most things since the pandemic but one month missed the memo: September. Here I highlight the S&P 500 over the past four Septembers, all negative months. Of the 52 months since April 2020, just 17 of them have been negative, or 32.7%. However, of the negative

Prelim was 67.8Prior was 66.4Current conditions 61.3 vs 60.9 prelim (62.7 prior)Expectations 72.1 vs 72.1 prelim (68.8 prior)1-year inflation 2.8% vs 2.9% prelim5-year inflation 3.0% vs 3.0% prelim Comments from survey director Joanne Hsu: Consumer sentiment confirmed its early-month reading; after drifting down for four months, sentiment inched up 1.5 index points above July and

Prior was +0.2% Services industries +0.1% vs +0.1% priorGoods -0.4% vs +0.4% priorManufacturing -1.5% vs +1.0% priorJuly advance GDP 0.0% Real gross domestic product was essentially unchanged in June, following a 0.1% increase in May. Goods-producing industries (-0.4%) saw its largest decrease since December 2023 as declines in manufacturing and construction were partially offset by

We saw some US dollar demand into the London fix all week and that was a preview of today’s flows, as the dollar accelerated into the final fix of the month. USD/JPY touched a session high up 76 pips to 145.74, while the Australian dollar also fell to a session low at 0.6775. The euro

Global equity semi-permabear David Rosenberg is out with a new commentary and he’s wading into the foreign exchange market with a strong case to sell USD/JPY. He said it “could be the most glaring price anomaly on the planet” and it carries the headline “Want to make a 30% return with little risk? Here’s a

Oil is having a rough one today, down 3% after a report said OPEC was planning to proceed with the October production rise. Oil rigs unchanged at 48.Gas rigs -2 This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

ECB Rehn: Falling inflation, weaker growth makes case for September rate cut. – This should come as a surprise to absolutely no one This article was written by Arno V Venter at www.forexlive.com.

Today is the busiest day of the week in terms of data releases but unfortunately they are unlikely to change much in the bigger picture. In the European session we get the Eurozone Flash CPI and the Unemployment Rate, while in the American session we have the Canadian GDP and the US PCE report. There

Prior month -4.2%Industrial production MoM 2.8% vs 3.3% estimateIndustrial Production YoY 2.6% vs 2.9% estimate. Previously 3.7% revised from 3.8%IP forecast 2 month ahead (Sept) -3.3% vs Prev 0.7%IP Forecast 1 month ahead (Aug) 2.2% vs prev 6.5% This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

Most retail traders believe that the win rate is the most important metric in trading and it’s usually the first thing they look at when searching for a strategy. That has to do with human psychology as we don’t like pain and losses, so we try to avoid that as much as possible. Unfortunately, in

Sentiment is a bit mixed across markets this morning. FX: In FX we have the JPY (safe haven) leading the pack after a better-than-expected Tokyo CPI number, with the AUD and NZD (high betas) second and third strongest. The EUR is leading the pack on the downside, most likely still due to the big deceleration

12 month trimmed mean 2.7% vs 2.8% prior Looking through the data here are some notable changes: Eggs: Massive increase of 90.9% (annualized 1-month change)Window coverings: Large decrease of -27.3%Used autos: Significant decrease of -25.2%Jewelry: Notable decrease of -20.4%Natural gas: Decrease of -7.7%Physician services: Slight decrease of -2.2%Electricity: Slight increase of 1.3%Fresh milk: Substantial increase

On the face of it, the Q2 Canadian GDP report looked good today at 2.1% annualized compared to 1.6% expected. It also handily beat the Bank of Canada’s forecast of 1.5%. The problem is that the composition of growth was in all the wrong places. Consumer spending rose at just a 0.6% annualized rate while

Prior was +2.6%PCE core +0.2% m/m vs +0.2% expected (unrounded +0.161%)Prior m/m +0.2%Headline inflation PCE +2.5% y/y vs +2.6% expected (Prior +2.5%)Deflator +0.2% m/m vs +0.2% expected (prior was +0.1%)Unrounded m/m +0.155% Consumer spending and income for July: Personal income +0.3% vs +0.2% expected. Prior month +0.2% Personal spending +0.5% vs +0.5% expected. Prior month

Villeroy is out with some comments in the French press: The market view is reasonable on rates at 2-2.50% in 2025The ECB must be wary of risk of insufficient growthFull interview The euro is flat today at 1.1075. This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

Overview of Market Sectors Today’s stock market heatmap reveals a broad spectrum of performances across various sectors, with the tech and consumer cyclical sectors taking the spotlight through impressive gains. Meanwhile, the energy sector faced notable declines, dragging down related stocks. Tech and Consumer Cyclical Shine The technology sector, led by semiconductor companies such as

Eurozone flash HICP YY: 2.2% vs 2.2% expected Eurozone flash ex F&E HICP YY: % vs 2.7% expected Eurozone flash ex F, E, A & T HICP YY: % vs 2.8% expected This article was written by Arno V Venter at www.forexlive.com.

ECB Muller: confidence is growing in a September rate cutECB Muller: the policy path after the September meeting is less certain This article was written by Arno V Venter at www.forexlive.com.

Reuters poll – U.S. home prices to rise 5.4% in 2024, 3.3% in 2025, and 3.4% in 2026 (vs 5.0%, 3.3%, and 3.4% in May poll).Reuters poll – U.S. existing home sales to rise to 4.15 million unit rate in Q4, 4.24 in Q1 2025 (vs 4.28 and 4.40 million in May poll). This article

It was a strong week that finished with some gains, though all indices were well off the session highs. Stoxx 600 +0.2%German DAX +0.1%Francis CAC flatUK’s FTSE 100 flatSpain’s IBEX +0.4%Italy’s FTSE MIB +0.6% On the week: Stoxx 600 +1.4% (record weekly close, fourth week of gains)German DAX +1.6% (record close)Francis CAC +0.8%UK’s FTSE 100

EU’s Von der Leyen in Prague at GLOBSEC Forum: Integration of Ukraine in the European Union is for us at the heart of our peace effort.EU’s Von der Leyen: Protecting Europe is first and foremost Europe’s duty.EU’s Von der Leyen: NATO must remain centre of our collective defence but need much stronger European pillar.EU’s Von

Fundamental Overview After the strong push lower from last Friday when Fed Chair Powell delivered a more dovish than expected speech at the Jackson Hole Symposium, the USDCHF pair hasn’t moved much as the lack of catalysts this week kept the price action at bay. The market is waiting for the key economic releases next

China Markets Regulator: Will further guide Alibaba Group in improving compliance, quality of service, efficiency. This article was written by Arno V Venter at www.forexlive.com.

Fundamental Overview Crude oil has been on a seesaw this week as we got a rally on Monday on the news that Libya was going to close down all oil fields and halt production and exports. That spike eventually got faded and prices even fell below the level seen before the news. Yesterday, we got

OPEC+ is set to proceed with a planned oil output hike from October, as Libyan outages and pledged cuts by some members to compensate for overproduction counter the impact of sluggish demand, six sources from the producer group told Reuters. Eight OPEC+ members are scheduled to boost output by 180,000 barrels per day in October,

US markets are set to open higher today with futures seeing the S&P 500 up 0.5%, the Nasdaq-100 up 0.9% and the Russell 2000 up 0.4%. Here are the biggest movers pre-market from Newsquawk: $ADSK +5%: Rev. & EPS beat; Exec given its momentum in Q2, lifting FY billings, rev., EPS & FCF outlook$DELL +4%:

The US dollar jumped in the aftermath of the PCE report, though I’m not sure that correlation equals causation. The PCE report was a touch low, highlighting the downtrend in inflation. That should have weighed on the dollar and did initially, albeit slightly. A short time later the dollar rebounded and Treasury yields inched higher

Fed: 100% probability of a cut ECB: 100% probability of a cut BoC: 100% probability of a cut SNB: 100% probability of a cut BoE: 77% probability of a hold (23% probability of a cut) RBA: 94% probability of a hold (6% probability of a cut) BoJ: 96% probability of a hold (4% probability of

While the EURUSD and the GBPUSD trades between the 100 and 200-hour MAs. The USDCHF is also trading between those two MAs as the last trading of the day of the weeks gets started The 100-hour MA is below the current price at 0.8448 (blue line in the chart below). The higher 200-hour MA is

There has been some talk that the planned OPEC+ barrel return would be pushed back but it’s still coming, according to a report from Reuters that cites six sources. I’m not terribly surprised by the messaging. US oil companies set budgets in Sept/Oct and OPEC surely doesn’t want them to set out to increase production

Fundamental Overview After the strong push lower from last Friday when Fed Chair Powell delivered a more dovish than expected speech at the Jackson Hole Symposium, the USDJPY pair hasn’t moved much as the lack of catalysts this week kept the price action at bay. The market is waiting for the key economic releases next

USD inflows: The bank expects rebalancing flows to favor the USD, driven primarily by the need to shift out of overperforming EUR-denominated assets and into USD assets. Despite the broader trend of USD depreciation observed recently, the near-term flows are expected to support the Dollar, potentially mitigating some of the recent downside pressure. EUR outflows:

The PBOC set the USDCNY midpoint at 7.1124. That is the strongest level since June 13. The estimate was 7.1116. The prior was at 7.1299. This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

The economic releases today will be highlighted by Japan retail sales along with Tokyo core CPI. Australia will also release retail sales. Below is a list of the economic releases in the Asia-Pacific session. 06:45pm NZD (a): Building Consents m/m – Previous -13. 8%7:30pm JPY (m): Tokyo Core CPI y/y – Forecast: 2.2%, Previous: 2.2%7:30pm

German import prices MM: -0.4% vs 0.0% expected German import prices YY: 0.9% vs 0.7% prior This article was written by Arno V Venter at www.forexlive.com.

ECB Muller says confidence growth in Sep cut but after that is less certainEU commission chief says must play stronger role in defenceAUD the strongest and CHF the weakestJapan’s MOF reports zero yen intervention from July 30 to Aug 28Eurozone flash HICP YY 2.2% vs 2.2% expectedECB Kazaks says open to discussing a September cutBoE

At the resumption of trading in the futures market, the e-mini S&P contract is up 0.16%. Dell reported after the closing shares are currently up 2.95%. Nvidia which notes their earnings yesterday after close is trading up 0.42% after declining -6.38% today. Apple shares are trading up 0.13% after rising 1.46% yesterdayMeta is trading up

ECB’s Schnabel: Incoming data have broadly confirmed the baseline outlook.ECB’s Schnabel: Confidence is not knowledge. History will not judge our intentions but our success in delivering on our mandate.ECB’s Schnabel: The closer policy rates get to the upper band of estimates of the neutral rate of interest, the more cautious we should be to avoid

Reuters poll: China home prices growth expected at -8.5% y/y in 2024 (vs -5.0% forecast in May poll).Reuters poll: China home prices growth expected at -3.9% y/y in 2025 (vs 0.0% forecast in May poll).Reuters poll: China property sales expected at -16.0% y/y in 2024 (vs -10.0% forecast in May poll).Reuters poll: China property investment

BoE consumer credit: B vs 1.300B expected UK mortgage lending: B vs 2.450B expected UK mortgage approvals: K vs 60.500K expected This article was written by Arno V Venter at www.forexlive.com.

Dell announced their earnings after the close and beat on the top and bottom lines: EPS $1.89 versus $1.71 expectedRevenues $25.03 billion versus $24.14 billion expected Dell shares closed at $110.74 and are trading higher by $7.10 or 6.41% at $117.85. Dell shares traded as high as $114.44 intraday and as low as $108.10. At

It’s been a fairly choppy morning in FX so far. The AUD is the strongest but neck and neck with the Pound for the strongest on the session. The CHF is the weakest, with the JPY not to far behind it. Eurozone data this morning has been mixed with GDP data out of France printing

Japan currency intervention amounted to 0 yen from July 30 to Aug 28 – MOF. – not that anyone suspecting intervention of during those dates of course. This article was written by Arno V Venter at www.forexlive.com.

The closing changes look small but it was certainly a lively day in North American equity markets. It looked bleak in the pre-market yesterday after Nvidia earnings but the market later shook it off and opened slightly higher. That was followed by some strong buying that ultimately flopped as heavy afternoon sellers hit and ultimately

Swiss KOF indicator 101.6 vs 100.6 expected This article was written by Arno V Venter at www.forexlive.com.

French GDP QQ final: 0.2% vs 0.3% expected French GDP YY final: % vs 1.1% expected This article was written by Arno V Venter at www.forexlive.com.

Tokyo CPI for August 2024 Excluding Fresh Food & Energy 1.6 % y/y vs 1.1% last monthExcluding Fresh Food 2.4% y/y vs 2.2% est. Prior month 2.2%Headline CPI 2.6% vs 2.2% last month The higher Tokyo inflation is not having a big impact on the USDJPY. The range for the day is only about 20

German Unemployment Rate: 6.0% vs 6.0% expected German Unemployment Change: K vs 16K expected This article was written by Arno V Venter at www.forexlive.com.

Spanish current account balance: 5.02B vs 5.56B prior This article was written by Arno V Venter at www.forexlive.com.

Another busy day on the calendar today: EU session: For the European session the market will be keeping a close eye on the French inflation data after the downside surprise we saw in both the Spanish and German inflation data yesterday. The EUR got a nudge lower on the data, and if the French data

French prelim HICP YY: 2.2% vs 2.1% expected French prelim HICP MM: % vs 0.5% expected French CPI YY: 1.9% vs 1.8% expected French CPI MM: % vs 0.5% expected This article was written by Arno V Venter at www.forexlive.com.

Yesterday at this time, the price of gold was trying to stay below the 100/200 hour MAs near $2510 (blue and green lines). Sellers could not keep the pressure on and the sellers turned to buyers. After some intraday volatility yesterday, buyers returned and pushed the price back up to the ceiling area between $2526.43

ECB Kazaks: Services inflation remains stickyECB Kazaks: Open to a September discussion on another rate cut This article was written by Arno V Venter at www.forexlive.com.

Goldman Sachs highlights a dramatic shift in market sentiment towards USD shorts as positioning adjusts ahead of anticipated Fed rate cuts. Despite tactical shifts, structural flows and high attractiveness of US assets may limit the USD’s decline. Key Points: Positioning Shift: Significant USD shorts have emerged, reflecting a market sentiment leaning towards USD weakness. This

French producer prices YY: -5.4% vs -6.0% prior French producer prices MM: 0.2% vs -0.3% prior This article was written by Arno V Venter at www.forexlive.com.

Bitcoin has followed the broad market lower today as the early positive momentum in the risk trade comes unwound. Shares of Nvidia are down more than 6% following earnings. Last week, it looked like bitcoin was ready to recoup the July-August decline but this week has seen steady selling. Today there was a strong rebound

UK nationwide house prices YY: 2.4% vs 2.9% expected UK nationwide house prices MM: -0.2% vs 0.2% expected This article was written by Arno V Venter at www.forexlive.com.

SocGen highlights that the unwinding of CAD shorts is still in progress, noting that substantial CAD short positions accumulated earlier this year have begun to reverse, impacting USD/CAD. Key Points: Unwinding of Yen Shorts: The recent focus has been on the unwind of large yen short positions, which have normalized since early August. This shift

Japan housing starts YY: -0.2% vs -0.1% expected This article was written by Arno V Venter at www.forexlive.com.

Japan construction orders YY: 62.8% vs -19.7% prior This article was written by Arno V Venter at www.forexlive.com.

Gold buyers and sellers continue to battle. Ceiling is stalling the rallies.Australia Retail sales for July 0.0% vs 0.3% estimatePBOC sets the USDCNY midpoint at 7.1124 vs 7.1116 estimateJapan retail sales YoY for July 2.6% vs 2.9% estimateJapan Preliminary Industrial production MoM 2.8% vs 3.3% estimateTokyo area Aug inflation data: Headline 2.6% y/y (prior 2.2%)Japan

Prio rmonth -17.0% revised from -13.8%)Building consents for July 26.2% The bounce back gain is the largets since May 2020. Last months decline was the largest since February 2021. Looking at the history, the ups-and-downs are pretty evident. “A higher number of working days contributed to the increase in homes consented in July 2024 when

Shares of Best Buy are having their best day since 2020 after reporting strong earnings. The company raised its fiscal-year guidance and now expects to see full-year adjusted earnings per share in the range of $6.10 to $6.35, up from a prior range of $5.75 to $6.20. It wasn’t all good news for the economy

Prior month 3.8% Retail sales for July 2.6% vs 2.9% estimateLarge Scale Retail Sales 1.0% vs 7% last month The USDJPY is little changed. This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

Australia’s S&P/ASX200 index and Japan’s Nikkei are trading higher by about 0.36% in early trading. Japan’s retail sales came in weaker than expected at 2.6% versus 2.8%. Duction was also weaker at 2.8% versus 3.6% forecast. The unemployment rate was also higher at 2.7% versus 2.5%. So weaker than expected data from manufacturing and for

In geopolitical news: Ukraine is reportedly conducting drone attacks on Russia’s Belgorod, Boronezh and Kirsk provinces. This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

Prior 0.5%Retail Sales (Final) 0.0% vs 0.3% estimate Details: Clothing, footwear, and personal accessories: -0.5% (largest fall) Department stores: -0.4% Cafes, restaurants, and takeaway food: -0.2% Household goods retailing: 0.0% (unchanged) Other retailing: 0.0% (unchanged) Food retailing: 0.2% (only industry with a rise) Ben Dorber, ABS head of retail statistics, said: “After rises in the

US Q2 GDP second estimate +3.0% vs +2.8% expectedUS initial jobless claims 231K vs 232K expectedUS July advance goods trade balance -102.66 billion vs -96.56 billion priorECB’s Nagel: Timely return to price stabilty cannot be taken for grantedUS sells seven-year notes at 3.770% vs 3.761% WIFitch affirms USA credit rating at AA+ with a stable

As the market heads toward a close for the week, I take a look at what happened this week technically and where we may be going today and into next week for the 3 major currency pairs – the EURUSD, USDJPY and GBPUSD. Be aware and prepared for the next break in those pairs. This

Prior month 2.5%Job/Applicants ratio 1.24 versus expected 1.23. Previous 1.23 This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

Shares of Nvidia are dragging down the broader indexes as they fall 5.4% to the lowest in regular trading. NVDA is down $6.65 to $118.95 as the market (and the options market) continues to digest yesterday’s earnings report. A host of analysts have boosted price targets since the release but the market hasn’t cooperated. There

China’s Commerce Ministry: Will not impose provisional anti-dumping subsidy on brandy imported from EU. This article was written by Arno V Venter at www.forexlive.com.

Prior was +4.8%Index 70.2 vs 74.3 prior (lowest ever) The index shows how far pending home sales have fallen. There was a big jump last month but it’s right back into the doldrums now and below the pandemic lows. According to NAR Chief Economist Lawrence Yun, “A sales recovery did not occur in midsummer. The

This is the final episode of a trio of auctions this week. The two-year sale stopped through strongly while there was a small tail for the 5s. Prior was 4.162%Bid to cover 2.50 vs 2.64 prior This is a 0.9 bps tail but so far the market is taking it largely in stride. This article

The US dollar jumped on stronger GDP and solid initial jobless claims but it’s slowly giving back those gains as equities strengthen. The S&P 500 is near a session high and up 0.9% while the Nasdaq is up 1.3%. USD/JPY was the biggest mover on the economic data, rising a full cent but it’s since

Probability of a September ECB cut has increased to 100% from 99.4% prior to the data, while the odds of an October cut has only moved to 64% from 61% prior to the data. I think that deceleration should have seen a bigger bet on an October cut as well, but money markets have had

There is risk that a somewhat stronger recovery could delay a return to inflation targetWhile our 2% target is in sight, we have not reached itA timely return to price stability cannot be taken for granted These have a hawkish tone to them but that’s no surprise coming from the Bundesbank. This article was written

Every day, it feels like we are sinking deeper into an Orwellian dystopia. Even progressive democracies are starting to impose more and more restrictions, especially on what can be said or written. Ten years ago, the news that someone would be jailed for a comment would have been bizarre. This is an unfortunate reality today,

It’s not AAA anymore but that’s a win. Key takeaways: US benefits from economic strength, reserve currency statusHigh deficits, debt, and political polarization remain concerns2024 election unlikely to significantly change fiscal outlookDeficits expected to remain high: 8.1% of GDP in 2024, 7.7% in 2025-26Government debt-to-GDP ratio projected to hit 124.4% by end-2026GDP growth forecast: 2.1%

The mandate of the SNB is to maintain price stability — a crucial precondition for society and a good functioning economyPrice stability is a crucial precondition for prosperity These are boilerplate comments. I’ll highlight anything new if it crosses. USD/CHF is up 45 pips to 0.8467 today. This article was written by Adam Button at

Iraq cancelled a spot cargo of 1 million barrels in August to reduce exports Iraq produced around 4.25 million barrels per day in July but there has been significant variance in the past year, though rarely as low as 3.85-3.9m bpd. This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

The non-fungible token boom-and-bust is likely to go down in history as one of the all-time manias to go along with tulip bulbs and the dot-com bubble. It’s probably the single-most stark example of the post-pandemic excess and the base for it all was OpenSea, which was the main NFT marketplace. Today, the SEC gave

The NZD is on another run higher this morning, testing close to the 0.63 psychological level. The NZD has caught many by surprise after the currency failed to push lower following the recent dovish tilt by the RBNZ. I think positioning can take some of that blame as the markets were already quite bearish on

Fundamental Overview This week has been pretty boring all around as the lack of catalysts kept the price action confined in a tight range. The market is waiting for the key economic releases next week as we will get the ISM PMIs and lots of US labour market data including the NFP report. As a

There has been a nice turnaround on the intraday gold chart. It fell about $15 follow a round of USD buying on good GDP data but has since recouped all of that and more. Bids emerged just before $2500 and it’s now in-line for a record close. The intraday record of $2531 is also within

Spanish HICP flash YY: 2.4vs 2.5% expected Spanish CPI YY flash: vs 2.4% expected Spanish HICP flash MM: vs 0.2% expected Spanish CPI MM flash: vs 0.1% expected This article was written by Arno V Venter at www.forexlive.com.

We’re making progress but we’re not there yet These are throwaway comments but it’s a good time to reminder readers that the latest PCE report is due tomorrow and at 2.6% y/y. This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

Initial claims 231K vs 232K expected and 232K prior (revised to 233K).Continuing claims 1868K vs 1870K expected and 1863K prior (revised to 1855K).The continuing claims data pertains to the NFP survey week. From the jobless claims perspective, the labour market is still doing pretty well. This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at www.forexlive.com.

August was a wild ride. It’s typically a quiet, summer month but it was anything but that this year as markets melted down early in the month only to post a full recovery in a remarkable turn. That’s left some nice-looking monthly charts and a series of breakouts. The US dollar has fallen substantially and

HFM, a global online trading company and brand name of HF Markets Group along with HF Markets, continues to support traders worldwide by expanding its educational offerings. Through in-person seminars in key cities and online webinar series, HFM aims to deliver the latest trading knowledge and market strategies to both emerging and established markets. “We

Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 and exit opening to -0.28% at 8048.50. Yesterday the index moved lower initially but then rebounded into the close closing little changed on the day. This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

Fundamental Overview This week has been pretty boring all around as the lack of catalysts kept the price action confined in a tight range. The market is waiting for the key economic releases next week as we will get the ISM PMIs and lots of US labour market data including the NFP report. As a

Equity futures have continued to grind higher throughout the session, with the NQ and ES both up around half a percent, despite the push lower last night after Nvidia earnings. The best performers so far has been the Hang Seng, EU50 and Nikkei who are all up over 1% on the session so far. News

Fundamental Overview This week has been pretty boring all around as the lack of catalysts kept the price action confined in a tight range. The market is waiting for the key economic releases next week as we will get the ISM PMIs and lots of US labour market data including the NFP report. As a

S&P 500 futures are up a modest 16 points, or 0.3%, to 5627. That’s an impressive performance given that shares of Nvidia are down 3% in the premarket following yesterday’s earnings report. Futures had traded as low as 5561 following NVDA earnings but the dip buyers have stepped in and that’s a good sign for

Yesterday in the Asia/Pacific session, the price of the AUDUSD moved higher after the Aussie CPI data came in a touch higher than expectations at 3.5% versus 3.4% (YoY). That took the price of the AUDUSD above the high price from July and earlier this week at 0.67978. However after reaching 0.6812 on the momentum

Prior month was 0.2% (revised to 0.1%).Wholesale inventories advanced for July 0.3% versus 0.2% estimate.Retail inventories ex auto 0.5% versus 0.2% prior month (revised to 0.3%). This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at www.forexlive.com.

The US dollar is higher across the board following a better-than-expected reading on GDP and in-line initial jobless claims numbers. The growth figures highlight an economy that’s just fine. In particular, the consumer spending number was +2.9% compared to the +2.0% reading expected. With these numbers, I find it hard to believe the Fed will

Overview of Market Movements and Sector Performances Today’s stock market presents a dynamic landscape with significant movements across various sectors. Focused analysis of the market heatmap provides an insightful view into sector performances, highlighting several key trends and movements that are pivotal for investors and traders. Technology and Consumer Cyclical Sectors: The technology sector shows

Discover time-tested strategies on how to trade price action in the 1 hour timeframe with confidence and consistency The post How To Trade Price Action (1 hour Timeframe) appeared first on TradingwithRayner.

EURUSD trades back below the 1.11 handle after a big deceleration in German statewide CPI data. Out of the 6 statewide releases, 5 of them printed new cycle lows, the only one that didn’t print with a new cycle low was Sachsen. This article was written by Arno V Venter at www.forexlive.com.

In the kickstart video for the start of trading for August 29, I take a technical look at the EURUSD, USDJPY and GBPUSD. What levels are in play? What are the risks, and the targets for each and I also explain and show why those levels are important. IN addition, I take a technical look

Swedish Final GDP YY: 0.5% vs 0.0% expected Swedish Final GDP QQ: -0.3% vs -0.8% expected Swedish Retail Sales MM: 0.5% vs -0.3% prior Swedish Retail Sales YY: -0.5% vs -0.1% prior This article was written by Arno V Venter at www.forexlive.com.

Closing changes on the day: Stoxx 600 +0.75%German DAX +0.6%Francis CAC +0.8%UK’s FTSE 100 +0.5%Spain’s IBEX +0.25%Italy’s FTSE MIB +0.8% That is an impressive turnaround for the DAX. This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

Price action is limited with the EURUSD low to high trading range only 15 pips, but the price has been able to extend above the 200-hour MA at 1.11267 (green line in the chart above). If the buyers can keep the price above that level, the buyers remain in contol with a run to the

Germany Sachsen state CPI YY: vs 3.1% expected Germany Bayern state CPI YY: 2.1% vs 2.5% expected Germany Brandenburg state CPI YY: vs 2.6% expected German Hessen state CPI YY: vs 1.8% expected German Baden-Wuerttemberg state CPI MYY: vs 2.1% expected German Nordrhine state CPI YY: vs 2.3% expected This article was written by Arno

The AUD and NZD continues to lead the majors on the upsideUS sees limited scope for nuclear talks with ChinaEquity futures putting in a solid run so far todayEurozone economic sentiment 96.6 vs 95.8 expectedChina’s Xi says committed to stable relationship with US based on win-win cooperationRate pricing for the ECB largely unchanged after the

Prior was -5.37 billionGoods deficit increased to C$2.2 billion from near balance in Q1Services deficit narrowed to C$3.2 billion from C$4.3 billionInvestment income balance swung to C$0.6 billion deficit from C$1.3 billion surplus Key Points: Imports rose 2.0% to C$196.1 billion, led by motor vehicles and partsExports edged up 0.9% to C$139.9 billion on higher

Prior was -96.56 billionExports flat at $172.9 billionImports rise $6.1 billion to $275.6 billionCapital goods exports jump 3.8% m/mConsumer goods imports edge up 0.9% m/m This number will be a pretty big drag at the start of Q3 for GDP. If there is a silver lining, the rise in imports does reflect some confidence on

Quick look below at today’s biggest FX option expiries via Newsquawk. This article was written by Arno V Venter at www.forexlive.com.

Advance Q2 reading was +2.8% annualizedFinal Q1 reading was +1.4% annualized Details: Consumer spending +2.9% vs +2.0% advance Consumer spending on durables+4.9%GDP final sales 2.2% vs +2.0% advanceGDP deflator +2.5% vs +2.3% advanceCore PCE +2.8% vs +2.9% advance Business investment +4.6% vs +5.2% advancePCE services inflation excluding energy and housing 2.3% vs 3.3% advanceCorporate profits

Eurozone economic sentiment: 96 vs 95.8 expected Eurozone industrial sentiment: vs -10.6 expected Eurozone services sentiment: vs 5.2 expected Eurozone consumer confidence final: vs -13.4 expected This article was written by Arno V Venter at www.forexlive.com.

The NZD and AUD continues to be the best performers so far today. For the NZD the upside was sparked by the solid jump in the ANZ Business Outlook which printed at the highest since 2014. For the AUD the strength looks more driven by overall risk sentiment with the upside in equities likely offering

Atlanta Fed Pres. Bostick is speaking and says: on inflation, there is still distance to go.Labor market still quite strong by historical standards.We cannot wait until inflation is too percent to move away from restrictive stance.Inflation has come down faster than expected, unemployment has risen farther than thoughts.This means we should pull forward rate cut

US sells 5-year notes at 3.645% vs 3.642% WIItaly plans to confirm it will bring deficit-to-GDP below 3% in 2026EIA weekly crude oil inventories -846K vs -2265K expectedEight things to look for in the Nvidia earnings reportSEC notifies NFT marketplace OpenSea that it’s likely to sue for securities law violations Markets: Gold down $17 to

According to Nikkei, Apple orders over 10% more iPhones versus last year. The phones this year will be AI equipped, but not ready until later in the year. Apple told suppliers to prepare for 88 – 90 million iPhones versus approximately 80 million. According to sources, the expectations is for four new iPhones, two, or

Exclusive-U.S. sees a ‘limited opportunity’ to restart nuclear policy dialogue with China -U.S. official.Exclusive-U.S. seeks arms talks with China focused on nuclear doctrine, strategic warning, risk reduction -U.S. official.Exclusive-Asked about missile deployment, U.S. official says any decision to deploy new capabilities to support Philippines will be informed by actions they see from China.Exclusive-U.S. officials have

Risk sentiment starts the session with a positive lean to it, despite Nvidia earnings and guidance not being enough to satisfy markets. FX: In FX the NZD is leading the pack to the upside following a solid jump in the ANZ Business Outlook and Own Activity data. The AUD is surprisingly strong despite a chunky

Riksbank’s Bunge: Inflation is in the process of stabilising at the target and the Swedish economy is in a mild recession.Riksbank’s Bunge: I foresee two or three further cuts this year.Riksbank’s Bunge: However, monetary policy should still be characterised by a gradual adjustment.Riksbank’s Bunge: This creates predictability and gives us the opportunity to manage a

The PBOC set the USDCNY midpoint at 7.1299 vs expectations of 7.1297. The prior was 7.1216 This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

China’s Xi meets with U.S. National Security Adviser Sullivan in Beijing.China’s Xi, in meeting with U.S. National Security Adviser Sullivan: In this changing and turbulent world countries need solidarity and coordination, not exclusion or regress.China’s Xi, in meeting with U.S. National Security Adviser Sullivan: China is committed to a stable relationship based on win-win cooperation.China’s

The economic calendar in the Asian Pacific session is light once again. Fedspeak will have Fed’s Bostic speaking at 6 PM. On Friday, in interviews with Bloomberg TV and CNBC, Bostic stated that he estimates the long-run Federal Reserve rate at 3%. He emphasized that the Fed’s next steps will be data-dependent, noting that inflation

Fundamental Overview This week has been pretty boring all around as the lack of catalysts kept the price action confined in a tight range. The market is waiting for the key economic releases next week as we will get the ISM PMIs and lots of US labour market data including the NFP report. As a

Japan consumer confidence index: 36.7 vs 36.7 prior This article was written by Arno V Venter at www.forexlive.com.

Shares in Remy Cointreau and Pernod Ricard both up about 8%, after China’s Commerce Ministry says will not impose provisional anti-dumping subsidy on brandy imported from EU. This article was written by Arno V Venter at www.forexlive.com.

Apple orders over 10% more iPhones versus last yearPBOC sets USDCNY midpoint at 7.1299 versus expectations of 7.1297Australia capital expenditures for Q2 -2.2% versus 1.0% expectedANZ business outlook for August 50.6 versus 27.1 last month. 10 year high.Can gold sellers gather some traction?Nvidia remains lower by around 7% (as do the other Mag 7)Fed’s Bostick:

Although we have a more lively day in terms of data releases, most of them are low-tier indicators that are rarely market moving. In the European session, we will get the Spanish and the German CPI figures. Both of them are unlikely to be market moving because they won’t change anything for the ECB or

Ukrainian military says it attacked ‘Atlas’ oil storage facility in Russia’s Rostov region on Aug.28, causing a fire.Ukrainian military says it struck ‘Zenit’ oil depot in Russia’s Kirov region.Ukrainian military says it struck field artillery depot in Russia’s Voronezh region This article was written by Arno V Venter at www.forexlive.com.

Q2 EPS: $0.68 versus $0.64 estimate. Last year $0.27 last year. Revenue: $30.04 billion vs $28.5 billion estimate. Last year $13.51 billionData center: $26.3 billion versus $25.08 billion estimateAdjusted gross margins and 75.7% versus 75.5% expectedR&D expenses $3.09 billion versus $3.08 billion expectedAdjusted operating expenses $2.79 billion versus expected $2.81 billionAdjusted operating income $19.94 billion

This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

Prior month 27.1Own activity 37.1 versus 16.3 last month. 7-year highExperienced own activity rose 1 point to -21, remaining weak.Confidence and activity expectations were high even before the Reserve Bank’s OCR cut.Pricing intentions increased 3 points to 41% of firms planning price hikes in the next three months.Planned price increase rose from 1.4% to 1.6%.Inflation

Prior quarter 1.0%Australia’s capital expenditures for Q2 -2.2% versus 1.0% estimate. That equaled the largest decline since a similar fall in Q3 2021.Building capital expenditures -3.8 versus -0.9% last quarter. The decline was was the worst since Q2 2020.Plant/machinery capital expenditures -0.5% versus +3.3% last quarter The ANZ business Outlook data was strong for NZ.

The price of gold has been stepping higher. Adam outlined the ‘Very simple case for buying gold” in his post HERE. And that makes a ton of sense. However, there are times when the momentum fades and there is a corrective move, or “the case” changes and the market reverses. The technicals help to tell

The NZDUSD has moved higher after the surprising ANZ business outlook index which moved to the highest level in over 10 years. The Own Activity index moved to the highest level in 7 years. Looking at the daily chart, the swing high from January 4 reached 0.62853. The high price today just reached 0.62849, and

Today’s economic calendar is the busiest one of the week. EU Session: During the European session we’ll get the latest round of flash HICP data for Spain and Germany. With markets fairly optimistically priced about the ECB rate path (at least relative to that of the Fed), a big miss in the data might could

The earnings call with Nvidia’s Jensen Huang is coming to an end and has not provided any rebound in Nvidia shares in after-hours trading. At the end of the call, shares of Nvidia are trading down $-7.85 or -6.30% at $117.79. The closing level was at $125.61. The high close for the week was $130

It’s a rare moment in global financial markets when everything hangs on a single earnings report. It’s been similar for the past few quarters for Nvidia but this one lands at a particularly quiet moment for broader markets and has taken on extra significance. Here are some of the numbers to look for today but

The major US indices are ending the day lower. For the industrial average, it’ snapped a 2- day record closing. The NASDAQ index fell -1.12% ahead of Nvidia’s earnings to be released at 4:20 PM ET. Nvidia shares closed down $-2.69 or -2.10%. The final numbers for the major indices are showing: Dow industrial average

Jensen Huang from Nvidia completed an interview on Bloomberg, but the price still remains lower. Shares are trading at $117.20 down $-8.41 or -6.70%. Looking at other Magnificent 7 stocks, they are also lower in after-hours trading: meta-$-4.78 or -0.92%Apple $-0.55 or -0.24% Amazon $-1.51 or -0.88%alphabet $-1.15 or -0.71%.Microsoft $-2.47 or -0.60%Tesla $-2.47 or

With Nvidia lower in after-hours trading and the e-mini S&P lower, the USDJPY is also dipping to the downside, and the process, is moving away from 100-hour moving average (blue line on the chart below) at 144.66 along with a 50% midpoint of the move up from the 2023 low which comes in at 144.58.

It’s been a sensational run for the pound over the past three weeks, culminating in a two-year high yesterday. Profit taking is the theme today with GBP/USD down 80 pips to 1.3174. Kier Starmer yesterday highlighted ‘painful’ choices that need to be made in the October 30 budget and that could have put a chill

The Nasdaq is lagging, down about 1.6% as we wait for Nvidia earnings. Chipmakers are near the bottom of the charts as they will trade in-line with NVDA tomorrow but Starbucks, Netflix and Tesla are also notable laggards. One that’s worth highlighting in Costco, which hit an all-time high yesterday but is down nearly 3%

US MBA mortgage applications: 0.5% vs -10.1% prior US MBA mortgage market index: 226.9 vs 225.8 prior US MBA purchase index: 131.8 vs 130.6 prior US MBA refinancing index: 753.8 vs 754.4 prior US MBA 30-year mortgage rate: 6.44% vs 6.50% prior This article was written by Arno V Venter at www.forexlive.com.

US markets are set to open slightly lower today with futures seeing the S&P 500 down 0.1%, the Nasdaq-100 down 0.2% and the Russell 2000 down -0.4%. Here are the biggest movers pre-market from Newsquawk: $SMCI -10%: To delay 10-K filing for FY24$NVDA -0.2%: Earnings await after-hours$PVH -9.5%: EPS disappointed & backed FY24 rev. decline

Prior was 4.121%Bid to cover 2.41 vs 2.40 prior The results are a tad worse than expected in the when-issued market but not meaningfully so. There was something of a concession in the past few hours but I still think you get a sign of relief here, though I’ll be watching closely. This article was

In geopolitical news from Israel, the Israeli army is said to have launched a large-scale operation against militants in various parts of the northern West Bank. This is according to Al Jazeera.More; Hundreds of Israeli soldiers take part in the operation in the northern West Bank with full air coverThe Army began a large-scale operation

MUFG highlights that the Bank of Japan (BoJ) continues to signal potential rate hikes despite recent yen strength, with rising front-end yields expected to limit yen selling appetite. Key Points: BoJ’s Stance: The BoJ has not shifted its monetary policy outlook despite recent market volatility and a significant drop in USD/JPY. Deputy Governor Himino reiterated

Libya’s Sarir oil field reduces production to near total shutdown – engineers to Reuters. More updates out of Libya regarding their oil situation. Oil price is largely unchanged after the news as a lot of the good news was priced in on Monday. This article was written by Arno V Venter at www.forexlive.com.

The USDCHF extended lower yesterday – just not in the Asian Pacific session. However, what did not happen yesterday was as the price moved sideways in the early hours of the trading day, and the falling 100 hour MA started to catch up, the price could not make a push to that MA, and ultimately,

The week is just getting started, but it’s already packed with major events, like the recent escalation in the Middle East after Israel attacked southern Lebanon, keeping markets on edge. While geopolitical events often shake up commodity markets, affecting oil and gold prices, macroeconomic trends have a wider influence, impacting everything from stocks and bonds

There is more than one Fed put. Early this month, I wrote about the one that saved equity markets. It’s also one that backs the real economy and is the one that 99% of financial commentary is written about, particularly lately. What worries me is the other one: It’s the call on the Fed or

Alright, alright, alright… enough about Nvidia already. Shares of the company are down 4% and the Nasdaq is down 1.4% in a move that’s gone in lockstep. The options market is pricing a +/- move of 9% in NVDA shares when earnings are reported after the bell and that will easily move the Nasdaq 2%

Newsquawk shared a nice preview on Nvidia reporting Q2 earnings today after the US market close. The release will likely be around 20:20 GMT/16:20 ET. Expectations Q2 EPS: 0.64Q2 Revenue: 28.48 blnQ3 EPS: 0.70Q3 Revenue: 31.41 bln Market Reaction Options market implies a 1.3% swing in the S&P 500 for the first day of trading

Bitcoin made some headway last week as it broke out of a consolidation patter and looked well on its way to recouping the July-August losses. But the mood changed early this week and it’s been steady selling, culminating in a 5% loss today. The drop in bitcoin is something of a red flag for tech

Nick Timiraos: You know that -818K revision to NFP? Goldman says it should’ve been -300KAustralia’s treasurer Chalmers: Inflation data a promising resultBOJ Deputy Gov. Himino: The financial and capital markets remain unstable.Australia construction work done for Q2 0.1% versus 0.7% expectedAustralia weighted CPI YoY 3.5% versus 3.4% expectedPBOC sets USDCNY midpoint at 7.1216 vs exp

Last week, the USDCAD fell sharply and although through 2 days this week and a few hours, the momentum lower may have slowed a bit, the trend lower remains intact. Trends are fast, directional and tend to go farther than traders expect or think. As a result, if buying a dip, it is important to

According to Reuters sources, Italy will confirm its commitment to get its deficit to GDP ratio below 3% in 2026 in the upcoming medium-term structural budget plan. This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

Today we get the second in a trilogy of Treasury auctions this week. It’s a $70 billion sales of five-year year notes due at the top of the hour. Yesterday the market was anxious about a two-year sale but it went surprisingly well and there was a big follow-through of bids afterwards. That led to

Japan’s Trade Ministry is set to ask for 2.3596 trillion yen in its preliminary budget request for FY2025/26, according to Jiji. This article was written by Arno V Venter at www.forexlive.com.

Gold briefly touched the recent highs around the 2530 level in the Asian session but eventually erased all the gains made this week and extended the drop below the 2500 level. This is mostly noise as there has been no catalyst for such a move. We can see in the 1 hour chart below that

Insights into Today’s Stock Market: A Palette of Mixed Performances Today’s stock market offers a vibrant mix of advances and retreats across various sectors, presenting a complex landscape for traders and investors alike. This analysis draws heavily on the latest stock market heatmap to guide you through the sectors and stocks that are shaping the

Here is a handy chart from Apollo showing what’s priced in for US and Eurozone overnight rates. The dotted lines show the market-derived forecasts while the solid lines shows some valuable historical context. We know rates in the US are going to be cut in September and will continue to be lowered from there. The

Prior was -4649K Details: Gasoline -2203K vs -2265K expectedDistillates +275K vs -1083K expectedRefinery utilization +1.0% vs +0.2% expectedProduction mbpd 13.3mbpd vs 13.4mbpd prior API data released late yesterday: Crude -3400KGasoline -1860KDistillates -1400K Ahead of the release, WTI crude oil was trading lower by 77-cents to $74.78. This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

SMCI falls more than 9% pre-market on the news that the company is to delay the 10-K form for FY2024. Adam posted yesterday on the short-selling research firm Hindenburg alleging “accounting manipulation, sibling self-dealing and sanctions evasion”. This delay just strengthens the Hindenburg’s case in the market’s view… This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta

The bank notes three negative drivers for the USD: Lower Yields Environment: A persistent low-yield environment in the US, with the Fed’s dovish tone at the Jackson Hole speech reinforcing expectations for rate cuts is a negative environment for the USD as the Dollar’s value typically declines with lower US yields.Relative Disinflation: A new factor

Australia/s treasurer Chalmers is speaking after the CPI data and says: Inflation data a promising resultHowever we are not complacent because we know that people are still under pressure The AUDUSD moved higher after the reading came in higher than the expectations of 3.4% (was 3.5%), but the high price of 0.68124 could not extend

US markets have been bounced around today by worries about Nvidia but thankfully Europe doesn’t have any AI to worry about. French stocks steadied today as Macron makes a wild play at holding onto power while Germany leads the way. Stoxx 600 +0.3%German DAX +0.6%Francis CAC +0.2%UK’s FTSE 100 +0.3%Spain’s IBEX +0.1%Italy’s FTSE MIB +0.3%

China’s Foreign Minister Wang Yi, in a meeting with U.S. National Security Adviser Sullivan, emphasized the importance of treating each other as equals for the smooth development of China-US interactions – Chinese state media.Wang Yi advised the U.S. not to judge China based on the path it has traveled nor to view China through the

Fundamental Overview Since last Friday, the USD has been mostly weak as Fed Chair Powell delivered a more dovish than expected speech at the Jackson Hole Symposium where he basically kept the door open for a 50 bps cut at the September meeting. In fact, the line saying that they will do everything they can

Swedish trade balance: 6.5 vs 8.7B prior Swedish exports: 156.0 vs 170.6B prior Swedish imports: 149.5 vs 161.9B prior This article was written by Arno V Venter at www.forexlive.com.

Fundamental Overview Since last Friday, the USD has been mostly weak as Fed Chair Powell delivered a more dovish than expected speech at the Jackson Hole Symposium where he basically kept the door open for a 50 bps cut at the September meeting. In fact, the line saying that they will do everything they can

Quick look below at today’s biggest FX option expiries via Newsquawk. This article was written by Arno V Venter at www.forexlive.com.

As we progress through 2024, the commodities market is emerging as a key area of interest for investors seeking to diversify their portfolios and hedge against inflation. With insights from Kar Yong Ang, a financial analyst at Octa broker, we explore the most promising commodities of the year, including gold, oil, lithium, and others, and

Fundamental Overview Since last Friday, the USD has been mostly weak as Fed Chair Powell delivered a more dovish than expected speech at the Jackson Hole Symposium where he basically kept the door open for a 50 bps cut at the September meeting. In fact, the line saying that they will do everything they can

Japan’s Trade Ministry eyes 2.3596 trillion yen for FY2025/26 budgetUS MBA mortgage applications w.e. 23 August 0.5% vs -10.1% priorWang Yi urges US to treat China as equal and halt suppression in trade and techJP Morgan joins other banks looking for more USD downsideWTI gives up all the Libya gains and trades below $75Knowing election

Israeli, US, Egyptian, and Qatari negotiators were meeting in Doha on Wednesday for “technical/working level” Gaza ceasefire talks – source with knowledge of the meeting to Reuters. This article was written by Arno V Venter at www.forexlive.com.

Sentiment trades fairly mixed across major asset classes as we head towards the cash open. That isn’t really surprising in a week like this where everyone is hesitant to put on risk while they wait for next week’s jobs data to get more clarity on the pace of Fed cuts. FX: In FX the AUD

Gold came under some selling pressure earlier today but has rebounded and is trading $7 higher to $2524 in what would be the highest daily close ever. Since hitting an intraday record high of $2531 last week, the noise around the gold market has been remarkably quiet, which is a good thing in a bull

Catalysts have been very thin on the commodity side this morning, but WTI has given up all of it’s Libya inspired gains from Monday. We’re currently trading back below the $75 and getting close to the 1-standard deviation implied volatility low for the day. When something can’t rally on good news or sustain a rally

Fundamental Overview Since last Friday, the USD has been mostly weak as Fed Chair Powell delivered a more dovish than expected speech at the Jackson Hole Symposium where he basically kept the door open for a 50 bps cut at the September meeting. In fact, the line saying that they will do everything they can

The final countdown to iFX EXPO Asia 2024 is officially in full swing as one of the world’s leading B2B online trading and fintech events is just around the corner, ahead of its return to Thailand. Excitement is already building as the expo, now in its third year in Bangkok, prepares to welcome more than

Swiss investor sentiment: -3.vs 9.4 prior This article was written by Arno V Venter at www.forexlive.com.

Japan’s Nikkei futures are trading down -0.4% yearly trading. US stocks did move higher but only marginally. Yesterday the Nikkei 225 rose 0.47%. Looking at the daily chart, the price of the Nikkei 225 remains between its 100-day moving average at 38622.25, and its lower 200-day moving average at 37266.66. The low price reached in

The bank notes that knowing the outcome of US elections in advance doesn’t necessarily provide an investing edge. Pre-Election Market Behavior: Historical data shows that the S&P 500 index and other markets do not follow a consistent pattern in the six months leading into an election, regardless of whether the government is divided or unified.Markets

Eurozone Money M3 annual growth: 2.3% vs 2.7% expected Eurozone loans to households: % vs 0.3% prior Eurozone loans to non-finance institutions: % vs 0.7% prior This article was written by Arno V Venter at www.forexlive.com.

It’s going to be another quiet day on the economic calendar side today. EU Session: There is very little to spark excitement during the EU session with French consumer confidence the main ‘highlight’ (if we can even call it that). US Session: On the US side, markets might be paying more attention to tonight’s 5-year

Less than a week after the BLS revised the 2023 job gains by -818K, Goldman is now arguing that the number was probably closer to -300K instead. The reason? Goldman says businesses avoided reporting unauthorized immigrants to the unemployment insurance system, which pushed and reported employment in last week’s benchmark revisions. It is all water

Prior month 3.8% Weighted CPI year on year 3.5% vs 3.4% estimateCPI SA YoY x.x% vs 3.9% prior This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

French consumer confidence: 92 vs 92 expected This article was written by Arno V Venter at www.forexlive.com.

Following the record growth it saw in 2023 with the full redesign of its enterprise-grade platform for brokers, fintech industry leader iTech Software introduces a new and even more powerful iteration of its infrastructure. The upgraded platform features a multitude of tools and capabilities that further empower brokers to deliver the best experience for their

It’s going to be a very boring day on the data front as the calendar is absolutely empty today. Unfortunately, this week is like a placeholder for the next one which is going to have lots of top-tier indicators like the ISM PMIs and will conclude with a bang on Friday with the NFP report.

Citi Research: Zinc could touch $3,100/t by 4Q or early 2025 as manufacturing sentiment recovers amid supply-side constraints.Citi Research: “We see renewed upside for aluminium by 4Q or early 2025.” This article was written by Arno V Venter at www.forexlive.com.

US 2-year note auction results 3.874% vs 3.880% WIUS August consumer confidence 103.3 vs. 100.7 expectedDallas Fed services sector outlook index -7.7 vs -0.1 priorRichmond Fed August manufacturing index -19 versus -14 expectedUS June Case-Shiller home price index +0.4% m/m vs +0.3% expectedFed discount rate minutes: Chicago and New York directors favored cutsWhite House: Iran

Prior month -2.9%Construction work done for Q2 0.1% versus 0.7% expected This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

The PBOC sets the USDCNY central rate at 7.1216 not far from the estimate of 7.1219. That is down from previous setting at 7.1249. The PBOC injects CNY 277.3B the seven day reverse repo at maintained rate of 1.70% This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

BOJ Deputy Gov Himino: BOJ’s monetary policy has to take into account numerous factors.BOJ Deputy Gov Himino: Our task is to closely monitor market developments for the time being.BOJ Deputy Gov Himino: Not having in mind specific levels, range for neutral interest rates.BOJ Deputy Gov Himino: Financial conditions are accommodative right now.BOJ Deputy Gov Himino:

The price of bitcoin is trading to a new low and in the process has moved below the $61,000 level. It is also moving further away from the near converged 100 and 200-day moving averages (blue and green lines on the chart above) which come in at $63,478 and $63,712. The current price is trading

The Aussie is leading the majors on the upside this morning following the latest release of monthly CPI data. Even though the headline printed slightly higher at 3.5 than market’s expectations of 3.4, the bigger story wasn’t on the headline side but on the core measures. Trimmed CPI YY decelerated to 3.8 from the prior

The economic calendar is light in the new trading day. The weekly private API data will start the session when it is released at 5:30 PM ET. Later at 9:30 PM ET, the Australia month CPI for July will be released. The monthly CPI data from Australia does not show all components of the CPI,

In yesterday’s video, looking at the EURUSD, USDJPY and GBPUSD, I stressed: “On Monday, the EURUSD moved lower and in doing so, is moving closer to its rising 100-hour moving average currently at 1.1143 (the price is at 1.11615). That moving average will be a key barometer for the pair in the new trading day.

Yesterday we highlighted some of the important data to keep on the radar for the US Consumer Confidence print. Even though the headline confidence number printed a solid beat of 103.3 (above the market’s max estimates), the USD still pushed lower. Part of the reason what the data under the hood which continued to show

The reports from Israel: The army mobilized thousands of soldiers from special units in preparation for the large scale operation in the northern West Bank.Operation in Tukarm and Jenin, is expected to last a long time. Up to weeksThe Army conducts the largest operation in the West Bank since 2002The operation in the West Bank

Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 ind trading down -0.12% at 8061.50 in early trading. The index has been building since it’s a tumble back on August 5 of -3.7% (same day the Nikkei fell -12.4%). Since that time 13 days have been higher with only 2 days lower. The high close level comes in at 8114.7. The

BOJ deputy governor Himono is speaking and says” The financial and capital markets remain unstableTHe BOJ needs to monitor these developments with utmost vigilanceBOJ also intends to carefully examine the impact these market developments at home and abroad have on the outlet for economic activity and prices, the risks surrounding the outlook, and the degree

The AUDUSD is trading in a narrow 40 picked trading range for the first two days of the week. THat is not a lot. However just ahead is Australia’s CPI data for the month of July. With the range narrow and contained, traders should look for a break momentum in the direction of the break.

White House spokesman Kirby said the US believes Iran is postured and poised to deliver an attack on Israel. A couple weeks ago, there were reports of an ‘imminent’ attack on Israel that didn’t come to pass so I don’t believe the market is going to take this headline too seriously. If/when the attack does

The numbers via oilprice.com on Twitter: The EIA estimates to be released tomorrow at 10:30 AM show: Crude oil drawdown of -2.265 million barrelsGasoline inventories drawdown of -1.587 million Distillates drawdown of -1.083 million — This data point is from a privately-conducted survey by the American Petroleum Institute (API). It’s a survey of oil storage

The Dow industrial average closed higher and at a record level for the second consecutive day. The record was only by the smallest of margins (well almost the smallest). The Dow industrial average only rose 0.02% on the day. The broader S&P and NASDAQ indices also closed marginally higher with matching 0.16% gains. Tomorrow Nvidia

At times the discount minutes can offer a preview of something like a coming dissent at the FOMC meeting but it’s very well telegraphed that a cut is coming. I suppose someone could dissent for 50 bps though. Current pricing is 64% for 25 bps and 36% for 50 bps but that will make a

Swedish Household Lending Growth YY for July: 0.7 vs 0.7% prior Swedish PPI YY for July: -0.1 vs 0.8% prior Swedish PPI MM for July: -1.4 vs -0.4% prior This article was written by Arno V Venter at www.forexlive.com.

The UK returned from holiday today: Stoxx 600 +0.2%German DAX +0.4%Francis CAC -0.2%UK’s FTSE 100 +0.3%Spain’s IBEX +0.5%Italy’s FTSE MIB +0.3% The DAX has been impressive since the early-August rout. This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

Japan’s finance minister Suzuki is speaking and says: FX rate determined by various factors Not just monetary policies and interest-rate differentialsAlso by geopolitical risks, market sentiment and others.Hard to tell how those factors would impact FX ratesWill monitor how changes in US monetary policies would affect through various channel US Federal Reserve Chairman Powell signaled

The Japan’s Nikkei 225 is opening down -0.10%. Looking at the daily chart, the price remains between its 100 day moving average above at 38619.42, and its 200 day moving average below at 37265.24. This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

Equity futures are trading in the green across the board (apart from the ASX200 down around -0.20%) Today looks like bit of a role-reversal day with the Nikkei (weakest in yesterday’s session) trading as the second strongest today, while the ASX200 which saw decent performance yesterday is today’s underperformer. Catalysts have been very thin so

Today’s two-year US Treasury sale was a bit of a gut-check moment for the fixed income market. It was the first test of real-demand at sub-4% yields in this environment. The $69 billion was a big amount to swallow and European fixed income was soft today. But the demand was there, proven by a 0.6

In this video, I take a look at the three of the major currency pairs from a technical perspective. the: EURUSDUSDJPY, andGBPUSD On Monday, the EURUSD moved lower and in doing so, is moving closer to its rising 100-hour moving average currently at 1.1143 (the price is currently at 1.11615). That moving average will be

Oil rallied 3.5% yesterday after Libya halted production and exports on the civil unrest in the country. The old adage applied again: Never trust a geopolitical rally. There are times when they can work for a period — like the Russian invasion of Ukraine — but unless barrels are truly taken out of the market

Prior was 4.434%On the run 2s were trading at 3.9245% shortly before the auctionBid to cover 2.68 vs 2.81 prior That’s a strong auction and note that there has only been one tail at a regular 2-year auction in the past year. Even with much less yield than last month, the bidders were there. That

The S&P 500 has rebounded into positive territory, up 0.2% after opening lower. Tech is leading the way with the Nasdaq Composite up 0.3% while the Russell 2000 remains down 0.5%. Top performers include Expedia, Costco and Netflix. Laggards include American Airlines, Amazon and Walgreens. Nvidia initially opened lower but has helped to turn the

The economic calendar in the Asia-Pacific session is once again light. Japan service PPI for July will be released at 7:50 PM ET. Last month he PPI came in at 3.0%. China’s industrial profit year to date for July will be released at 9:30 PM ET with expectations of 3.5% Other data is to be

The front end is for sale today and this will be the first auction in awhile where the US Treasury can borrow at that tenor for less than 4%. Last month, 2s sold for 4.43% and today, we’re likely to track below 3.95%. The last sales below 4% were in March/April 2023 on worries about

Consumer confidence 103.3 vs. 100.7 expectedPresent situation 134.4 vs. 133.1 prior.Expectations 82.5 vs. 81.1 prior.16.4% of consumers said jobs were “hard to get,” from 16.0%12 month inflation expectations 4.9% vs 5.4% prior — lowest since March 2020Confidence declined among consumers under 35 while it increased for those 35 and older “Overall consumer confidence rose in

The CEO of Microsoft Satya Nadella, sold 14,398 shares of Microsoft at an average price of $417.41. That netted the CEO a cool $6M ($6,009,869.18 to be exact). Whoop-di-do. Nadella owns 801,331 shares as of May 2024 (and probably options for many more). His holdings of shares totals $331,342,355. Maybe he needed a new boat

Fed’s Daly: Labour market is in complete balanceFed’s Barkin: I’m hearing that consumers are still spending but they’re choosingUS July durable goods orders +9.9% vs +5.7% expectedUS Dallas Fed manufacturing index -9.7 vs -17.5 priorCanada to impose 100% tariff on China EVs; will also tax Chinese steel and aluminumCanada to slash the number of temp

We have another empty European session ahead in terms of data releases. In the American session, we will get several low-tier US data but th focus will be on the labour market data in the US Consumer Confidence report. 14:00 GMT/10:00 ET – US August Consumer Confidence The US Consumer Confidence is expected at 100.7

Fundamental Overview Last Friday, Fed Chair Powell delivered a more dovish than expected speech at the Jackson Hole Symposium as he basically kept the door open for a 50 bps cut at the September meeting. In fact, the line saying that they will do everything they can to support a strong labour market was key.

The bank expects the AUD to appreciate in the coming weeks due to favourable rate differentials and USD depreciation. However, significant gains are likely to be constrained by the weak economic outlook for China as well as existing bullish positioning in the AUD. Bullish drivers: Narrowing rate differentials between AUD and the USD are expected

Today, European sovereign yields are breaking out of a consolidation pattern in a sign of waning demand for safety. The charts speak for themselves as it’s a consistent move from west to east. UK 10s: French 10s: Italian 10s are up 8 bps today in the largest jump since June: Bunds have broken out of

As long as disinflation path converges to 2% before end of 2025, then I’m comfortable with gradual policy easing. This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at www.forexlive.com.

Reuters is estimating that PBOC will set the USDCNY midpoint at 7.1245 vs 7.1132 previously. The People’s Bank of China (PBOC), China’s central bank, is responsible for setting the daily midpoint of the yuan (also known as renminbi or RMB). The PBOC follows a managed floating exchange rate system that allows the value of the

US consumer confidence was better than expected at 103.3 compared to 100.7 expected. That was released at the same time as a softer Richmond Fed services index at -11 compared to +5 previously. That led to little reaction in the FX as the dollar stayed softer on the day or slightly sagged. That was mirrored

GB CBI Distributive Trades -27 vs -43 prior This article was written by Arno V Venter at www.forexlive.com.

Apple is announcing a change in its senior management as Luca Maestri its current CFO will step down as of January 1 and be replaced by Kevan Perakh. Apple shares are trading around -0.7 in after-hours trading, after closing higher by 0.15% today. This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

The AUDUSD has been mired in a very narrow trading range to start the new trading day. Yesterday’s trading range was not spectacular as well and comes after testing the July high on Friday and finding willing sellers. That sets the level near 0.67978 (call it 0.6800) a topside resistance target. On the downside, the

Prior month -17Services index -11 vs +5 last monthManufacturing shipments -15 vs -21 last month Other details: Employment -15 versus -5 last monthWages 14 versus +15 last month Prices paid 2.45 versus 3.00 last monthPrices received 1.87 versus 1.31 last monthNew orders -26 versus -23 last monthBacklog of orders -27 versus -20 last monthCapacity utilization

Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov on Ukraine’s demands that the West let it strike deep into Russia: “This is blackmail.”Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov: Russia has its own nuclear weapons doctrine, which is being adjusted.Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov: Playing with fire is very dangerous for those who are entrusted with nuclear weapons in the West. This article

Market Overview Today’s stock market presents a varied landscape, with the tech sector showing modest movements, in contrast to the broader market’s mixed signals. Notable among the technology giants, NVIDIA (NVDA) sees a slight decline of -0.85%, possibly tied to industry-specific challenges or broader market cautiousness. Sector Analysis Technology: Mixed results dominate with NVIDIA and

Prior was -0.1Revenue index +8.7 vs +7.7 prior This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

German Consumer Sentiment for September:-22 vs -18.2 expected This article was written by Arno V Venter at www.forexlive.com.

The S&P 500 opened higher but quickly reversed and has been languishing for most of the day. Small caps were strong early but gave most of it away in a grind and tech lagged as fears build around Wednesday’s earnings report from Nvidia. Closing changes: S&P 500 -0.4%Nasdaq Comp -1.0%DJIA +0.1% (record high)Russell 2000 +0.2%Toronto

It’s another relatively quiet day on the economic calendar for today. EU session: During the EU session the main highlight will be German GDP and consumer confidence data expected at 07:00 BST. It’s unlikely that these will move the needle as they are usually brushed aside. Also, given the steady amount of downside surprises in

Prior month 3.0% revised to 3.1%Japan services PMI July 2.8% versus 2.9% expected This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

Shares of AI high-flyer Super Micro Computer are down 10% in the pre-market after a short report from Hindenburg Research alleged “accounting manipulation, sibling self-dealing and sanctions evasion.” The company has a $35 billion market cap and soared from $250 at the start of the year to as high as $1229 as it becamse something

The JPY is being raked over the coals this morning and losing ground against all its peers. Catalysts for the move has been light. However, following recent policy actions, we have seen the more traditional inverse correlation between the JPY and yields come back into focus. The small upside in major benchmark yields (below in

China’s January – July industrial profits +3.6% year on yearChina’s July industrial profits +4.1%. This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

Prior was +0.3%Prices 6.5% y/y vs +6.0% expectedPrior was 6.8% y/y FHFA data: -0.1% m/m vs +0.0% priorPrices +5.1% y/y vs +5.7% prior These two data sets are telling a somewhat-different story as the 20-city numbers stay strong while the national numbers from the FHFA slacken. In the latest round of earnings from home builders,

Fundamental Overview Last Friday, Fed Chair Powell delivered a more dovish than expected speech at the Jackson Hole Symposium as he basically kept the door open for a 50 bps cut at the September meeting. In fact, the line saying that they will do everything they can to support a strong labour market was key.

With all the focus on the labour market right now, there are a few data points within today’s Consumer Confidence report that could get some attention and worth being aware of. 1. Jobs hard to find (overlaying this with the unemployment rate should explain why it’s useful and why it would matter going into next

Two oilfields in southeast Libya shut down, another oilfield reduced production to lowest capacity – engineers. This comes on the back of yesterday’s announcement of the force majeure. Oil has been trading mostly rangebound in today’s session after yesterday’s solid run higher. This article was written by Arno V Venter at www.forexlive.com.

UBS Global Wealth Management raises odds of a U.S. recession to 25% from 20% previously. – Recession watchers will be having a ball with this one. This article was written by Arno V Venter at www.forexlive.com.

Things to look out for in today’s Consumer Confidence dataLavrov condemns Ukraine’s demands and warns West against ‘playing with fire’UK CBI Distributive Trades -27 vs -43 priorMarkets still leaning mostly risk on as we head deeper into the sessionUK PM Starmer warns of ‘painful’ October budget,Two Libyan oilfields shut and another at lowest outputBofA is

Fundamental Overview Last Friday, Fed Chair Powell delivered a more dovish than expected speech at the Jackson Hole Symposium as he basically kept the door open for a 50 bps cut at the September meeting. In fact, the line saying that they will do everything they can to support a strong labour market was key.

UK PM Starmer: The budget coming in October will be painful.UK PM Starmer: Those with the broadest shoulders should pay the heaviest burden.UK PM Starmer: I will have to make big asks of the public, to accept short term pain for long term good. Pound has seen some very marginal weakness on the news, but

As we head deeper into the quiet Tuesday session, markets are still leaning mostly risk on across major asset classes. Bonds: yields have continued to push higher (bonds lower) in a follow-through from yesterday’s bounce, with 10-year treasury yields trading close to 3.85%. Equity futures: green across the board (apart from the ASX200 which is

The world’s first trading platform to provide instant funding to its users, Ufunded.com, has made another pivotal move in their disruptive journey by natively integrating TradingView into their platform. Ufunded.com is committed to product-led-growth and is fully in alignment with TradingView’s mission of empowering traders, which has led them to a user base of over

German detailed QQ GDP for Q2 (seasonally adjusted): 0.1% vs -0.1% expected German detailed YY GDP for Q2 (non-seasonally adjusted): 0.3% vs 0.3% expected German detailed YY GDP for Q2 (seasonally adjusted): 0.0% vs -0.1% expected This article was written by Arno V Venter at www.forexlive.com.

Taiwan Defense Ministry is saying: In the past 24 hours 15 Chinese military aircraft around Taiwan in a separate report, China spent $15 billion or 7% of its defense budget on exercises in the Western Pacific in 2023 according to previously unpublished Taiwanese estimates. A wildcard geopolitically is if China were to make advances into

Goldman cuts Brent forecast and eyes $70-85 range for 2025Russia on the attack: Third round of explosions heard in the Ukraine capital of KyivJapan’s FM Suzuki: FX rates determined by various factors, not just monetary policiesChina’s January – July industrial profits rise 3.6% YoYGeopolitics: Taiwan reports 15 Chinese military aircraft detected over last 24 hoursJapan

The USDJPY is trading to a new session high as some dollar buying enters into what has been a very quiet open to the new trading day. For the USDJPY, the price of the pair initially dipped into a swing area between 144.038 and 144.447 reaching a low of 144.225, but could not go any

When beginners approach stocks they either look for technical analysis or for financial analysis like earnings, cash flow, P/E ratio, balance sheet and so on. That’s not what moves the stocks. If you want to have conviction in your ideas, you need to know what moves your stocks and position for that change. In the

Following the overwhelming number of nominations for both Brokers (B2C) and Fintechs (B2B) categories of the UF AWARDS APAC 2024, the Voting Round is now open. Calling the entire industry to cast their vote for their favourite brokerage or fintech brand or one they deem to be the most deserving, this is the final and

Israel and Hezbollah went at it over the weekend with bombing which did not do a lot of damage. It can be compared to a playground fight, where some haymakers missed, and ended with a wrestling match broken up by the playground monitor. US General CQ Brown is out saying that the immediate risk of

Quick look below at today’s biggest FX option expiries via Newsquawk. This article was written by Arno V Venter at www.forexlive.com.

USD: Bearish The bank expects a weaker USD in the medium term due to anticipated Fed rate cuts and slower US growth. But downside is somewhat balanced by the fact that a significant amount of easing is already priced in (approximately 190bps). Risks include the potential for slower-than-expected Fed easing and uncertainties around the upcoming

Goldman has cut it’s average 2025 Brent forecast by $5. I think yesterday’s developments in oil markets shows how futile price targets are when it comes to volatile assets like oil (for all assets to be fair). WTI futures are currently trading close to $77 per barrel after yesterday’s solid push higher, which got within

The big recent upside momentum in EURUSD has caught me by surprise. The pair is currently sandwiched between major resistance at 1.1278 (the July 2023 high) and support at 1.1140 (the December 2023 high). Now if we look at 2-year and 10-year yield differentials, we can see that the pair has basically just been following

Fed officials continue to keep the possibility of a 50bp on the table. Yesterday’s comments from Daly sounded similar to that of Powell that they don’t want to see further weakening of the economy and labour market from here. Even though she said it’s reasonable to adjust policy at the normal cadence (25bp cuts), she

GBP has testified of its high beta properties after its rapid recovery in August alongside other risky assetsExpected downside in EURGBP below 0.85 and upside in GBPUSD above 1.30 to extendMaintains long recommendation in GBPCHFMain drivers of the bullish view is positive global risk sentiment, lower yields, and improving UK domestic data (demonstrated by recent

Deutsche Bank is keeping its year-end EUR/USD 1.10 for now but says that would change if the Fed cuts by 50 basis points on September 18. Some highlights from the latest note from Deutsche Bank FX: New “Powell put” emerging – market to price 25bps cuts as floor, not ceilingCurrent environment supportive of risk appetite

The USDCAD from April to July was confined in an up-and-down trading range between 1.3586 and 1.3803. Finally, in July, the pair broke higher reaching a level of 1.39458 on August 5. However, since then the pair as moved back into the up-and-down consolidation range, and then below the low of that range last week

It was looking awfully grim in the oil market last week as WTI crude fell through the summer lows to the worst levels since early February. What was particularly damaging is that it was coming at a time of positive risk appetite. But oil has bounced back in three strong days of gains, including a

The USDCHF hasn’t really done a lot over the last day and a half of trading including the first few hours of trading today. That has allowed things like the 100-hour moving average to get closer to the price. Having said that, it is still 40 or so pips away (above) which keeps the sellers

The PBOC sets the USDCNY central rate at 7.1249 not far from the estimate of 7.1245. That is up from previous setting at 7.1132. This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

As the North American session comes to an end, the CAD is ending as the strongest of the majors, while the NZD is the weakest. The USD is ending the day mostly higher with gains vs all the major currencies with the exception of the CAD (-0.16%) and the CHF (-0.04%). To start the trading

Russia is fighting back from the recent Ukraine offensive. Witnesses are reporting that the third round of explosions have been heard in the Ukraine capital of Kyiv. Earlier this reported that Russia launched drone attack on Kyiv. According to the Ukraine military, air defense systems were reportedly operating in the region to fight back against

What’s the world’s largest asset class? It’s real estate. But what are homes worth when there is an empty house on your block with no one to fill it? What if there are 10 empty houses? John Authers recently wrote about declining fertility trends and pricing them into markets. By now, most people have seen

. Comments from Daly on Bloomberg TV: Hard to imagine anything that could derail Sept rate cutTime to adjust policy is upon usDon’t want to keep making policy tighter as inflation comes downThe risks to our goals are now balancedMost likely outcome is that we continue to see gradual inflation slowing, sustainable pace of labor

Germany received a tipoff from a foreign intelligence service on a possible Russian act of sabotage at a NATO site – NTV has been noted as the source. Apparently the tip-off alleged the potential act could involve a drone. Markets have grown very desensitized to geopolitical updates like these, and so far markets have not

Fundamental Overview Last Friday, Fed Chair Powell delivered a more dovish than expected speech at the Jackson Hole Symposium as he basically kept the door open for a 50 bps cut at the September meeting. The line saying that they will do everything they can to support a strong labour market was key. Despite this,

Commodities are mostly lower this morning with precious metals and base metals all trading in the red. Oil is up +.035% at the time of writing after further escalation between Israel and Lebanon over the weekend. In recent weeks oil have been more sensitive to good news on the geopolitical side compared to bad news,

Goldman Sachs sees potential for further gains in the British Pound, maintaining a long GBP/CHF position with a target of 1.16, driven by both positive global risk sentiment and strong domestic data. Key Points: Pound Recovery: The GBP has quickly rebounded from early August losses, benefiting from improved global risk sentiment, evidenced by the currency’s

We last heard from Daly on August 18 when she said: Calls for “prudent” approach to lowering ratesPushed back on concerns of sharp economic slowdownRecent data gives “more confidence” inflation is under controlNo need for dramatic response to weakening labor market I’ll be curious if that ‘prudent’ language or something similar remains as it was

Canada’s governing Liberal party is being destroyed in the polls and will almost surely lose in an election that must be called between now and October 20, 2025 at the latest. The election will almost-certainly be fought over immigration levels and the housing and infrastructure crunch that came with it. Here’s a chart to highlight

Tuesday 8/27 Before Ope Nordstrom (JWN)Scotiabank (BNS) Wednesday 8/28 Before Open: Kohl’s (KSS)Chewy (CHWY)Abercrombie & Fitch (ANF)Bath & Body Works (BBWI)Foot Locker (FL) After Close: NVIDIA (NVDA)CrowdStrike (CRWD)Salesforce (CRM) Thursday 8/29 Before Open: Best Buy (BBY)Dollar General (DG)Abercrombie & Fitch (AEO) After Close: Dell Technologies (DELL)Marvell Technology (MRVL)Lululemon (LULU)Ulta Beauty (ULTA) This article was written

An iPhone event has been rumored for awhile and it will be no surprise if it leans heavily on AI. Third Point hedge fund manager Dan Loeb recently bought Apple shares and wrote about them in the fund’s most-recent letter: Apple Intelligence” suite to drive iPhone upgrade cycleApp Store likely to become primary platform for

Today’s Market Overview Investors and traders observed a significant rally in the tech and telecom sectors, contrasted by notable drags in other areas like consumer cyclicals and semiconductors. This daily snapshot offers a focused look at these sectors, identifying opportunities and risks from today’s trading activity. 🚀 Tech Sector Analysis Communication Services: Google (GOOG) leads

Swiss Non-Farm Payrolls Q2:5.499 vs 5.484M prior This article was written by Arno V Venter at www.forexlive.com.

It’s that time of the month again with Friday the last trading day of the month and corporate month-end coming up on Wednesday. Month-end flows: Usually a time when big investors, like pension funds and mutual funds, might adjust or rebalance their portfolios at the end of each month. Corporate month-end flows: financial activities from

Watch the video – NVDA Stock before earnings on Aug 28, 2024. Technical analysis and price forecast. Looking for ATH: Historical context: NVIDIA has been on a strong uptrend since 2013, with significant momentum building in 2024, leading to a breakout from a trading range earlier this year. Current technical setup: The stock recently reached

USD/CAD is back to where it was in early April as today’s lift in oil prices combines with weeks of broad US dollar selling to squeeze the pair lower. Today, Canada’s government announced China tariffs on EVs, aluminum and steel but those moves were leaked in advance and are not market movers. What’s helping to

Let’s make it clear what’s going on here: Canada got its orders from the US and followed them. This also isn’t a surprise as it was floated weeks ago. The tariffs will be 100% on EVs and 25% on aluminum and steel. The steel one is the most bizarre as Canada just sold off its

The Jackson Hole Summit has concluded and was highlighted by the speech from Fed Chair Powell on Friday where he explicitly the way for a rate cut in rate in September. The cut will be the first change in policy since July 2023 when the Fed raised rates by 25 basis points to a high

The poster child of the AI theme is reporting earnings this week, with options markets implying a close to 10% move for Ndivia on their earnings release this week. Given the over 6% weighting in the S&P and close to 12% weighting in the Nasdaq it can really move the needle should earnings offer meaningful

The most recent update for the Atlanta Fed GDPNow is sitting at 2%. This number can of course still be revised lower thoughout the quarter should US data push lower. But as it stands at 2%, it makes the case for 50bp (emergency) cuts from the Fed a bit of a strange one. All eyes

Closing changes on Monday: Stoxx 600 flatGerman DAX flatFrancis CAC +0.2%UK’s FTSE 100 closed for holidaySpain’s IBEX flatItaly’s FTSE MIB -0.1% Many markets are back near the all-time highs but it’s still a ways to go for France to even get to the 200-day moving average. This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

General business activity: -9.7 vs -17.5 priorCompany outlook: -9.6 vs -18.4 priorPrices paid: +28.2 vs +23.1 priorNew orders: -4.2 vs -12.8 priorShipments: +0.8 vs -16.3 priorEmployment: -0.7 vs +7.1 prior These are decently-hot numbers. This isn’t a market mover but it speaks to the steady state of the economy rather than a looming recession. Note

Libyan eastern-based government says all oil fields closing down, halting production and exports – statement. Force majeure announced in response to the attempts to takeover the central bank by the Tripoli-based governments. This article was written by Arno V Venter at www.forexlive.com.

Not much data has been released in the past 10 days so it’s no surprise to see GDPNow flat. “The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the third quarter of 2024 is 2.0 percent on August 26, unchanged from August 16 after rounding. After recent releases from the US

US stock markets closed on the highs on Friday, led by a surge in small caps. Last week: S&P 500 +1.4%Nasdaq Comp +1.4%DJIA +1.3%Russell 2000 +3.4%Toronto TSX Comp +4.1% Today, futures are tepidly higher with spoos up 8 pints, or 0.15%. Nasdaq futures are slightly lower. The S&P 500 is about 35 points from the

Richmond Fed President Thomas Barkin was on an episode of Odd Lots that was published earlier today. I’ve been listening to it this morning and still working my way through it. Some headlines have hit: Will take a ‘test and learn’ approach to rate cutsCurrent ‘low-hiring, low-firing’ approach companies now take to employment is unlikely

Sentiment remains mixed as we head deeper into today’s EU session. • FX continues to follow its own path on the sentiment side today with safe haven JPY and CHF maintaining their lead, while high beta AUD and NZD are the clear laggards. • US and EMEA equity futures have found a bit more love

Today the calendar is pretty empty on the data front with the UK on holiday and just a couple of second-tier releases. The German IFO is expected at 86.5 vs. 87.0 prior, but it shouldn’t be a market moving report given that it’s correlated with the Germany Composite PMI, and therefore not a “fresh” news.

German Ifo Business Climate index: 86.6 vs 86.0 expected German Ifo Current Conditions index 86.5 vs 86.5 expected German Ifo Expectations index 86. vs 86.5 expected This article was written by Arno V Venter at www.forexlive.com.

Rate cuts by year-end Fed: 105 bps (*61% probability of 25 bps rate cut at the upcoming meeting) ECB: 66 bps (97% probability of rate cut at the upcoming meeting) BoE: 44 bps (70% probability of no change at the upcoming meeting) BoC: 78 bps (93% probability of rate cut at the upcoming meeting) RBA:

Libya’s Al Waha Company says it will start partial reduction in production, “continued pressure” will lead to complete halt – statement. Oil continues to grind higher on the news with WTI testing close to $76.50. This article was written by Arno V Venter at www.forexlive.com.

Fundamental Overview Last Friday, Fed Chair Powell delivered a more dovish than expected speech at the Jackson Hole Symposium as he basically kept the door open for a 50 bps cut at the September meeting. The line saying that they will do everything they can to support a strong labour market was key. Despite this,

Prior was -6.7%New orders for manufactured durable goods jumped 9.9% to $289.6 billion in JulyBlows past market forecasts, reverses June’s 6.9% declineTransportation equipment orders skyrocketed 34.8% to $102.2 billion, driving the increaseEx-transport -0.2% vs -0.1% expectedPrior ex-transport +0.4% (revised to +0.1%)Excluding defense, new orders rose 10.4% vs -7.2% prior (revised to -7.5%)Nondefense capital goods orders

Oil continues to extent on gains after Libya announced a force majeure on all facilities, terminals and oil fields. Next major resistance on the chart is the 200DMA coming up around $77.76. It also has confluence with the 2 standard deviation implied volatility high for the day. This article was written by Arno V Venter

Fundamental Overview Last Friday, Fed Chair Powell delivered a more dovish than expected speech at the Jackson Hole Symposium as he basically kept the door open for a 50 bps cut at the September meeting. The line saying that they will do everything they can to support a strong labour market was key. That is

People’s Bank of China USD/CNY reference rate is due around 0115 GMT. The People’s Bank of China (PBOC), China’s central bank, is responsible for setting the daily midpoint of the yuan (also known as renminbi or RMB). The PBOC follows a managed floating exchange rate system that allows the value of the yuan to fluctuate

US yields are lower to start the trading weekPBOC sets USD/ CNY central rate at 7.1139 (vs. estimate at 7.1132)Japan’s Nikkei 225 index falls near -1.00% at the openE-mini S&P contract is little changedCrude oil trading marginally higher to start the trading week. Tests key hourly MA.It is a UK bank holiday today.Gaza talks end

• The bank suggests that EURUSD is overvalued, and that the pair has overshot its fundamentals • Thinks near-term fair value is closer to 1.10 for EURUSD • They expect better US data in coming months to push back on excessive rate cut expectations to support the USD • Believes 100bp of cuts priced for

Currencies have traded in tight ranges as we get the new week underway without any meaningful fundamental catalysts behind today’s moves. The JPY (white) is in the lead this morning. Some are attributing the JPY’s Asia-Pac strength to the difference in tone on Friday between Gov Ueda and Chair Powell. The is second strongest on

Libya’s Al Waha Company says it will start partial reduction in productionWTI extends gains with news that Libya will be stopping all production and exportsEarnings in focus this week again with NvidiaGermany received a tip-off about potential Russian sabotage act at a NATO siteFX not playing ball with commodities and equity performance todayAtlanta Fed GDPNow

Mixed Signals: Stocks are riding high on economic optimism, but bonds are telling a story of slower economic growth. This split view could lead to overall bearish surprises for equities should the bond market prove to be correct. Rate Cuts on the Horizon?: The Fed is currently expected to cut rates by more than the

Fed Chair Powell’s Jackson Hole speech on Friday was enough to keep the hopes of a 50bp cut(s) alive. We’ve seen the implied rate path push lower following Friday’s speech, with money markets pricing in close to 200bp of cuts by July next year. Given the current state of US economic data this view seems

It’s a fairly light start to the week with today’s economic calendar. EU Session: The main highlight for the EU session is the German Ifo data for August 2022. Data out of the Eurozone has been surprising to the downside for quite some time now (looking at the surprise index below), which means another weak

The USD is continuing its run to the downside today with the USDJPY and the USDCHF making some of the biggest moves.Last week, Fed Chair Powell paved the way for a cut at the September meeting. Today lower US yields are also helping the dollars move lower. In this video, I take a look at

Minutes-Swedish C. Bank Statement: The uncertainty over the inflation outlook motivated a continued gradual adjustment of monetary policyMinutes-Swedish C. Bank’s Seim: Share in the assessment that the policy rate can be cut another two or three times this year.Minutes-Swedish C. Bank Statement: If the outlook for inflation stays the same, the policy rate can be

Japan Leading Indicator Revised: -2.1 vs -2.6 prior This article was written by Arno V Venter at www.forexlive.com.

Reuters Poll: India annual GDP growth seen at 6.9% in April-June (vs 7.8% in previous quarter).Reuters Poll: India economy to grow 7.0% in 2024-25 and 6.7% in 2025-26 (unchanged from July poll) This article was written by Arno V Venter at www.forexlive.com.

Japan’s Nikkei is trading down -0.91% at 38019. Looking at the daily chart, the price is below is 100-day moving average at 38637.55, but above its 200-day moving average below at 37233.10 (blue and green lines respectively). The last 7 – trading days has seen the price settle between those key MA levels. With five

Crude oil is trading up around $0.26 or 0.36% that $75.16. The rise comes after increased tensions in the Middle East. Technically, looking at the hourly chart the 200 hour moving average comes in at $75.20 (green line on the chart above). Getting and staying above that level would have traders targeting the 50% of

Equity futures are trading mostly mixed this morning (not too surprising with a quiet calendar today and this week). It’s been a fight between the Hang Seng (supported by real es and ASX200 (helped by stronger performance in real estate and tech) for the top spot this morning, with the majority of EMEA and US

The People’s Bank of China set the onshore yuan (CNY) reference rate for the trading session ahead. USD/CNY is the onshore yuan. Its permitted to trade plus or minus 2% from this daily reference rate.CNH is the offshore yuan. USD /CNH has no restrictions on its trading range.A significantly stronger or weaker rate than expected

Gaza talks in Cairo end without an agreement. Aiios is out saying: “Gaza talks will continue in the coming days through working groups to address issues and remaining details” Meanwhile on Sunday, the rockets were flying in Israel. Israel launched a preemptive airstrike on Hezbollah in southern Lebanon, reportedly using 100 jet fighters to hit

The EURUSD is trading near unchanged to start the new trading week. Last week, the USD faced selling pressure, which drove the EURUSD price higher as the Federal Reserve Chair hinted at the possibility of a rate cut at the upcoming September meeting. This momentum pushed the price briefly above the 1.1200 mark, reaching a

The USDJPY is moving lower to start the new trading week with the price extending below 144.00. On Friday, the low for the day reached 144.038 before bouncing . The low price just reached 143.993. Technically, looking at the daily chart, the 50% midpoint of the move up from the January 2023 low comes in

US yields are lower to start a trading week. Reviewing last week’s changes: 2-year yield fell -13.4 basis points to 3.920%5-year yield fell -10.9 basis points to 3.650%10-year yield fell -8.3 basis points to 3.801%30-year yield fell -4 point basis points to 4.092% The yields to start the trading week are showing: 2-year yield 3.889%,

The US e-mini S&P contract is trading above and below unchanged at 5652.75. The high-priced has reached 5659.25 of the low price has extended down to 5646.50 Last week, the major indices closed up for the second consecutive week. Dow rose 1.27% after rising 2.94% the week before,S&P index rose 1.45% after rising 3.93% the

The UK markets will be closed in observance of the Summer Bank Holiday. I guess that makes sense. Next Monday September 2, the US and Canada will have the day off in observance of Labor Day, which kind-of does not make sense (No work on Labor Day). Partly sunny skies will with highs of 23°C

UPCOMING EVENTS: Monday: PBoC MLF, German IFO, US Durable Goods Orders.Tuesday: US Consumer Confidence.Wednesday: Australia Monthly CPI, Nvidia Earnings.Thursday: US Q2 GDP 2nd Estimate, US Jobless Claims.Friday: Tokyo CPI, Japan Retail Sales, Eurozone Flash CPI and Unemployment Rate, Canada GDP, US PCE. Tuesday The US Consumer Confidence is expected at 100.1 vs. 100.3 prior. The

Mon: UK Market Holiday (Bank Holiday), German Ifo (Aug)Tue: CBRT Minutes, Chinese Industrial Profit (Jul), German GfK Consumer Sentiment (Sep)Wed: Australian CPI (Jul), Nvidia (NVDA) Earnings (Q2)Thu: Spanish Flash CPI (Aug), German State CPIs (Aug), EZ Sentiment Survey (Aug), US GDP (2nd) and PCE (Q2)Fri: Japanese Tokyo CPI (Aug), French Prelim CPI (Aug), German Unemployment

The US dollar has fallen to new lows on the day pretty much across the board (not yet against GBP). The market is continuing to digest the Powell comments and it’s the front end of the yield curve where the strongest buying remains. US 2s are down 9 bps to 3.92% and near the lows

IMF chief economist Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas spoke in an interview with Reuters at the Jackson Hole annual economic symposium on Friday. Saud the BoJ can continue to raise rates gradually, a ‘data dependent’ pace: inflation is higher than the Bank’s 2% targetinflation expectations have started to move “maybe even a little bit above” that targetBOJ’s beginning

Powell offered a lift to US stock markets but there was some mid-day angst along with signs of sector rotation into pro-cyclical small caps. Closing changes on the day: S&P 500 +1.2%Nasdaq Comp +1.5%DJIA +1.2%Russell 2000 +3.1%Toronto TSX Comp +1.1% (record high) On the week: S&P 500 +1.4%Nasdaq Comp +1.4%DJIA +1.3%Russell 2000 +3.4%Toronto TSX Comp

Bitcoin has been lagging in the recovery from the broad market rout in the start of August, in part because of worries about the sale of Mt. Gox bitcoin. But it’s making up for lost time today, rallying nearly 5% and trading at a session high. The daily chart has a nice look as it

Powell at Jackson Hole: The time has come for policy to adjustBOE’s Bailey: Market events like two weeks ago will happen, test is whether more triggeredFed’s Goolsbee: We want to be careful about the employment side of the mandateGoolsbee: The size of Fed cuts isn’t important, it’s the pathECB’s Rehn: European growth outlook is looking

In the annual walk-around at Jackson Hole, Bank of Canada Governor Tiff Macklem was see alongside Bailey and Powell. The BOC leader could be keeping quiet ahead of the Sept 4 meeting but we may also get an interview or two with him from Jackson Hole later today or on the weekend. This article was

The great stock market turnaround in August was impressive in many ways but when I take a step back, there was one big question being asked and answered: Is the Fed behind the curve? Within that question is a set of assumptions about the US economy and if you look at the economic data, there

Almost everyone on the committee thinks inflation is coming down and that there will be multiple cuts over calendar 2024 and 2025Speed and size of cuts to be determined by economic dataNeutral rates are ‘far from where we are’There is some question on the strength of the consumer, that said if you look at the

In brief: Expectations from the survey are that core CPI is forecast to rise 2.7% y/y in July vs 2.6% in JuneThis would register inflation above the BOJ 2% target for the 28th straight monthEnd of energy subsidies likely boosted headline figure I posted on this earlier this week but repeating it here. The data

Bank of America highlights that historically, the US Dollar Index (DXY) tends to rise from August through US election day in November, suggesting potential USD strength leading into the upcoming election. Key Points: Seasonal Trends: Since 1970, the DXY typically shows strength in August, weakness from September to mid-October, and then regains strength into late

The next step depends on data pointsInflation moved a lot faster than expectedI list the range of potential Fed decisions from no cut to 50 bpsSolid business conditions give the Fed space to be patient The market is right to price in a return to 3.00% but what I’m thinking about is: under what conditions

Bank of Japan Governor Ueda again from parliament: BOJ’s policy path to neutral interest rate remains highly uncertainJapan’s short-term interest rate is still very low so if the economy is in good shape, BOJ will move rates up to levels deemed neutral to economyThere is very high uncertainty on where Japan’s policy rate might eventually

We already have plenty of data to make our decision in SeptemberDisinflation and a weak economy support a Sept cutDowntrend in inflation is on trackWe are still seeing strong services inflationThe disinflationary process has been ongoing since autumn 2022 and it’s still going onAsked about 50 bps, says they always have to be openSays he

There is a good battle going on in the S&P 500 today. The initial Powell pop staleld at yesterday’s high and then pulled back to 5595. It rebounded from there in another push at the highs but the bulls couldn’t break out. Now another round of profit taking has hit. That’s something of an ominous

The main highlight of the day for North American traders comes at 10 am ET with Powell’s speech at Jackson Hole (US new home sales are due at the same time). Before that, Canada gets a moment in the spotlight with June retail sales at 8:30 am ET. The consensus is -0.3%, which was the

GfK Consumer Confidence still net pessimistic but holding at its highest since around three years ago. Joe Staton, client strategy director at GfK: “This more positive outlook may be due to a mortgage-friendly interest rate cut at the beginning of August, and hopes of more to come” This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at

Federal Reserve Chair Powell is the star of the show, he is speaking at 10am US Eastern time on Friday, August 23, 2024. This is an awesome preview: Preview: What to expect from Powell at Jackson Hole Speakers incldue: Bank of England Governor Bailey (on the 23rd) Philip Lane, European Central Bank Here is the

Headlines: Preview: What to expect from Powell at Jackson HoleFrom angst to relief for US equities?GBP/USD lingers near the 2023 high as buyers hope for a breakout to end the weekFrance August business confidence 97 vs 94 priorBOJ governor Ueda reaffirms closely watching market moves with high sense of urgencyBOJ governor Ueda: Markets remain unstable,

US equity futures are strong after a poor day yesterday. The S&P 500 fell 1.1% yesterday and the Nasdaq fell 1.8%. Futures show a 0.6% gain for the S&P 500 and 1.0% in the Nasdaq. The S&P 500 is on pace to enter Jackson Hole with the second strongest year-to-date performance since the year 2000.

We do not seek or welcome further cooling in labour marketWe will do everything we can to support strong labor market as we make further progress toward price stability This is undoubtedly dovish My confidence has grown that inflation is on a sustainable path back to 2%Upside risks to inflation have diminished, downside risks to

European stock markets have recouped all the declines from the early-August rout with another strong rally today. It’s the fourth gain in five days this week. On the day: Stoxx 600 +0.5%German DAX +0.8%France CAC +0.7%UK’s FTSE 100 +0.5%Spain’s IBEX +1.1%Italy’s FTSE MIB +1.0% On the week: Stoxx 600 +1.4%German DAX +1.7%France CAC +1.7%UK’s FTSE

I don’t like tying our hands for any meeting but Fed funds minus inflation is as high as it’s been in decadesInflation is on a path to 2%We’re the tightest we’ve been in this cycle, even though we stopped hiking last JulyFed forecasts show widespread support for rate cutsIt’s hard to put a specific number

Prior was 0.617mMedian sales price: vs $417,300 priorSeasonally-adjusted estimate of new houses for sale at the end of July vs 476,000 prior This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

Japan finance minister Suzuki: can’t rule out the possibility of Japan’s economy falling back into deflationWeak yen has pros and consJapan has taken action, including FX intervention, as excessive volatility in forex is not desirable Ueda and Suzuki Earlier: Bank of Japan Governor Ueda says BOJ’s policy steps were appropriateBOJ Governor Ueda says concerns over

German DAX futures +0.1%UK FTSE futures +0.3% European indices closed lightly changed yesterday, unlike US stocks which closed modestly lower. But the mood music today is a fairly steadier one, with S&P 500 futures now seen up nearly 0.4%. So, that’s helping to balance out risk sentiment a little as we look to the session

Market events like those of two weeks ago or so will happen; the test is not whether they happen but whether they trigger wider instabilityCautiously optimistic that inflation expectations are anchoredCommunicating when we decide to accommodate short-run shocks or trade-off between inflation and activity is essential but difficultToo early to declare victory on inflationThe course

Ueda was asked whether normalisation of monetary policy was too slow: replied that the BOJ’s policy steps were appropriate Earlier: BOJ Governor Ueda says concerns over US economy slowdown behind recent market routBoJ Ueda will adjust monetary easing if our economy price outlook is likely to be achieved Ueda speaking in parliament This article was

The US dollar has fallen sharply after a speech from Fed Chairman Jerome Powell said it was time to pivot policy and he added a key line about keeping the jobs market strong. “We will do everything we can to support a strong labor market as we make further progress toward price stability.” That line

The S&P 500 pulled back in a round of profit taking after initially failing to break yesterday’s high but the FX market isn’t having any doubts. EUR/USD is at the highest in a year, up 78 pips to 1.1190. It’s not just the euro either as the US dollar falls to the lows of the

May was -0.8%Preliminary June was -0.3%Sales down 0.5% in Q2Preliminary July +0.6%Ex autos +0.3% vs -0.2% expectedPrior ex-autos -1.3% (revised to -1.2%)Ex autos and gasoline +0.4% vs -1.4% prior These are some good numbers from the Canadian consumer. The ex autos number for June is a surprise while the July preliminary reading is a big

Canadian rail workers are coming back on the job after a short-lived lockout of both national railways. CN workers have taken down picket lines while CP workers are still awaiting the official order but that should be coming imminently. Minister of Labour Steven MacKinnon ordered the move: “These collective bargaining negotiations belong to CN Rail,

Here is the state of play after Powell’s speech at Jackson Hole in equity markets: S&P 500 up 1.3%Nasdaq Comp up 1.8%Russell 2000 up 2.2%DJIA +1.0% There is some resistance in the S&P 500 right now as it challenges yesterday’s opening high. If that doesn’t crack, then watch out for profit taking despite a dovish

Broad support starting to form for Sept cut but not a done dealInflation developing as expected, economic growth is weak, wage pressure easing The market was already pricing in a 99% chance of a move so this isn’t a big surprise but the early signalling also suggests that October is in play. Current Oct pricing

Friday at 10 am ET, Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell will deliver his highly-anticipated annual speech at Jackson Hole in Wyoming. Current market pricing has been shifting away from 50 basis points; though retaining a high probability of 50 bps before the year is done. For the Sept meeting, the market sees a 75% chance

It’s been fairly one way traffic for equities since Asia trading. S&P 500 futures were lightly changed earlier in the day but are now up by roughly 0.5% ahead of US trading. Wall Street opened higher yesterday but surrendered gains during the session to close modestly lower. It can be argued that there was some

Japanese CPI Overall 2.8% y/y expected 2.7%, prior 2.8% Core CPI (excluding fresh food) 2.7% y/y expected 2.7%, prior 2.6% Core-core 1.9% y/y, first time under 2% since September 2022 expected 1.9%, prior 2.2%excluding fresh food and energy, this is the closest to US core inflation The Bank of Japan have been very fussy over

Overview of Today’s Market Today’s trading session exhibits a mixed performance across various sectors, with notable uplifts in technology and energy sectors, while other areas show more restrained movements. This analysis harnesses the vivid landscape depicted in the latest stock market heatmap, providing traders and investors with insights critical for informed decision-making. Technology Sector Leads

There is just one to take note of on the day, as highlighted in bold. That being for EUR/USD at the 1.1100 level again. Similar to yesterday, the expiries are likely to help lock price action from falling off too much in the session ahead. That at least until we get to Fed chair Powell’s

Seeking Alpha (gated) with the info from a note from UBS on oil, expects Brent to recover into an $85-90/ bbl range over the coming months. The note is a good summary of the mix of factors at play. On demand and the recent slide in price: recession fears in the US, ongoing ceasefire hopes

Earlier from Bank of Japan Governor Ueda: BOJ Governor Ueda says concerns over US economy slowdown behind recent market routBoJ Ueda will adjust monetary easing if our economy price outlook is likely to be achievedBank of Japan Governor Ueda says BOJ’s policy steps were appropriateJapan fin min Suzuki says intervention action taken as excess volatility

Inflation has come way downWe are close to being ready to cut ratesWe’re going to have to think hard about what’s happening in labor marketsOur policy has had its effect and we can start pathway back to normal policy postureThe numbers in the last couple months have come in more positiveUnderlying inflation is all flashing

Reuters on Thursday with a snippet from Citi analysts, saying they see the possibility for a bounce in Brent crude to the low to mid US$80 range. Citit argue that upside risks in the market remain: from still-tight balances through August, heightened geopolitical risks across North Africa and the Middle East, the possibility of weather-related

The focus is once again on Japan today. I posted a heads up preview here: Japan will release July inflation data on FridayReminder, Bank of Japan Governor Ueda will speak in Japan’s parliament on FridayThis snapshot from the ForexLive economic data calendar, access it here.The times in the left-most column are GMT.The numbers in the

Rapid FX moves are undesirableImportant for currencies to move in stable manner, reflecting fundamentalsIntervention was response to speculative move and excessive volatility I would argue that it was only effective as the BOJ also delivered on their part of the bargain. Otherwise, it would have been a repeat story to previous intervention attempts by Tokyo.

Ueda and Suzuki: Bank of Japan Governor Ueda says real rates likely remain negativeJapan finance minister Suzuki: Can’t tell whether strong yen has bigger demerits or meritsBoJ Gov Ueda again: July rate hike was done under accommodative conditionsBank of England Governor Bailey speaking on Friday, August 23, 2024Bank of Japan Governor Ueda says FX moves

He says that inflation trend in the euro area is consistent with further gradual ECB rate cuts. Adding that with the projections now assuming two more rate cuts by year-end, there is “no reason now not to follow through” on that. I would take that as meaning two rate cuts at the minimum. Currently, markets

Prior 94Services confidencePrior 95Manufacturing confidencePrior 95 This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

Bank of Japan Governor Ueda still speaking in parliament. More specifically on the yen now: FX rates could affect economy through various routes FX moves affect economy through various channels FX moves at times could affect economy, as well as risks to economic forecast FX moves could affect BOJ’s median forecast BOJ hiked rates in

People’s Bank of China USD/CNY reference rate is due around 0115 GMT. The People’s Bank of China (PBOC), China’s central bank, is responsible for setting the daily midpoint of the yuan (also known as renminbi or RMB). The PBOC follows a managed floating exchange rate system that allows the value of the yuan to fluctuate

The pound has quietly been an outperformer among the major currencies in trading this year. Amid a more resilient economy and stickier inflation, the BOE has seen their rate cut plans pushed back. And that has helped to underpin the currency as most other major central banks are on track to cut rates further. The

I posted the agenda for all the speakers at the Kansas City Fed’s annual central bank symposium taking place in Jackson Hole Wyoming, August 22 to 24: Here’s the full agenda of all the speakers at Jackson Hole – some big hitters in here We’ve had the heads-up on Federal Reserve Chair Powell’s speech for

August US S&P Global services PMI 55.2 vs 54.0 expectedUS initial jobless claims 232K vs 230K expectedUS July existing home sales 3.95m vs 3.93m expectedEurozone August flash consumer confidence -13.4 vs -12.6 expectedFed’s Collins: Timing seems appropriate to begin easing monetary policyCollins: Soon is appropriate to begin cutting ratesHarker: We see softening in jobs from

The People’s Bank of China set the onshore yuan (CNY) reference rate for the trading session ahead. USD/CNY is the onshore yuan. Its permitted to trade plus or minus 2% from this daily reference rate.CNH is the offshore yuan. USD /CNH has no restrictions on its trading range.A significantly stronger or weaker rate than expected

He has offered quite a number of remarks already today as Eamonn summarised here. USD/JPY is lower by 0.4% to 145.70 currently but also owes to some slight softness in the dollar. 10-year Treasury yields are down 1.6 bps to 3.846% so that is also weighing. But the general undertone from Ueda today is that

The BOJ’s more hawkish tone from their rate hike caused a turmoil in markets at the start of August. Deputy governor Uchida then tried to calm the mood by saying that they won’t raise rates so long as markets are unstable. That caused a bit of a stir as markets took that to possibly mean

Eurostoxx +0.2%Germany DAX +0.2%France CAC 40 +0.3%UK FTSE +0.3%Spain IBEX +0.6%Italy FTSE MIB +0.6% S&P 500 futures are up 0.4% as risk sentiment holds steadier to start the session. All eyes are on Fed chair Powell’s appearance later today to set the mood before the weekend. It is anticipated that he will confirm expectations of

The subject matter for Australian Treasurer Chalmers is said to be RBA legislation. Can’t wait! This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

Hawkish headline comment from Bank of Japan Governor Ueda concerns about slowing US economy caused recent market routclosely watching market moves with a sense of urgency as uncertainties remaindomestic and overseas markets remain unstabledecided to raise rates in July due to risk of price overshoot driven by import costseconomy is moving in line with price

More from Bank of Japan Governor Ueda, speaking extensively in the Diet today: By keeping current monetary policy stance, will move closer to achieving price targetDecided at July MPM that adjusting degree of monetary easing appropriate from standpoint of stably, sustainably achieving price targetReal rates likely remain negative, easy financial conditions will keep supporting economy

As the dollar bounced back a little, gold fell by 1% and more importantly back under the $2,500 mark. Price is still keeping above the previous triple top pattern around $2,480 but buyers will be hoping to clinch a more convincing push above the figure level to solidify the breakout status. Instead, price action focus

Closely monitoring market situation with high sense of urgencyWhen market moves are big, will consider how that affects our forecasts in deciding policy The BOJ will next meet on 20 September and almost no one is considering a rate hike then. There is a minority quarter in markets anticipating a possible move in October next.

Bank of Japan Governor Ueda again: Closely watch how market move affect price, economy outlookNo change to our stance that we would adjust degree of monetary easing if our economy price outlook is likely to be achievedWill continue to work coordinate with govtBOJ ready to scrutinise how market moves affect our economic, price outlook and

BOJ commentary is in the spotlight to start the day. Ueda is the main man appearing in parliament and he is doing his job to keep the calm in markets. USD/JPY is down on the day though, but it also owes to some slight softness in the dollar in general. After keeping steadier yesterday amid

A summary of a note from UBS on the dollar. UBS touch on the many alternatives being offered up right now. Fed’s July meeting minutes suggest a strong likelihood of a rate cut in Septemberthe minutes said that most participants believe US inflation is nearing the 2% targetconcerns over a slowing labor market are increasingthe

New Zealand’s economy was under intense pressure during the quarter after a long and sustained Reserve Bank of New Zealand rate hike cycle. There was some relief earlier this month, ForexLive Asia-Pacific FX news wrap: RBNZ cuts rates but not showing in these figures of course. Q2 Retail Sales -1.2% q/q expected -1.0%, prior +0.5%

Japan finance minister Suzuki spoke earlier: Japan fin min Suzuki says intervention action taken as excess volatility not desirable Catching up on a little more from the fin min: Important for govt to work closely with BOJ on economic, financial situationsCan’t tell whether strong yen has bigger demerits or merits USD/JPY has stabilised after its

I posted earlier on the note on the UBS oil forecast: UBS is expecting Brent crude oil to recover into $85 – 90 range Citi is looking for the same direction: Citi says upside risk for oil, Brent possible bounce above $80 UBS analysts now on gold: target US$2,600/oz by the end of 2024 target

Justin had the data on the substantial slowdown: Eurozone wages slow down in Q2 after running hot in the previous quarterThis just further solidifies the narrative for a rate cut next month and tees up the potential for more in the final quarter of the year. Via Morgan Stanley: “We think that the first quarter

US equities opened higher but with Treasury yields rising and Powell on the agenda tomorrow, the worries crept it. Big cap tech was particularly soft as well. Aside from Powell, some may be eyeing Kamala Harris’ speech tonight as a risk. The S&P 500 traced an outside day, which is something of a red flag,

El-Erian spoke in an interview with Bloomberg (gated) Television on Thursday: “It is problematic in my mind that the market is pricing in so many rate cuts right now” “The market is overdoing it”“There’s this notion of a hard landing policy response to achieve a soft landing, that has got to be reconciled one way

European Central Bank Governing Council member Kazaks (governor of Latvia’s central bank) spoke on Thursday. He led with saying he’s very much open to a discussion on a September rate cut, and that even with a couple more cuts the Bank’s monetary policy would still be restrictive. A gradual approach to rate cuts would be

Good morning, afternoon and evening all. Any charts, technical analysis, trade ideas, thoughts, views, ForexLive traders would like to share and discuss with fellow ForexLive traders, please do so: This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

Yesterday the euro touched the highest in a year as it rallied for a fourth straight day. A good chunk of that climb was on the heels of a broadly softening US dollar but the market is also feeling more comfortable with the idea that the eurozone isn’t headed for an ugly economic outcome. Today’s

1 bps tailBid to cover at 2.61 vs 2.43 prior The sale was a touch soft but I don’t see much reaction in the nominal market. This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

The Canadian government says it’s exploring all possible solutions to ending a rail lockout that started today, including binding arbitration. Canadian rail lines carry massive amounts of freight, including into the US. Previously, collective agreements with CN and CP were staggered, so this is the first time they’ve even been shuttered at the same time.

The Nasdaq is now down 1.3% and the S&P 500 down 0.85% — both session lows. Some stops were hit on the latest leg down as the earlier lows gave way. There is some real angst ahead of Powell tomorrow but at least the weak hands are getting shaken out early. I don’t see any

Prior 51.9Manufacturing PMI 45.6 vs 45.8 expectedPrior 45.8Composite PMI 51.2 vs 50.1 expectedPrior 50.2 The beat in the French services sector is arguably what is driving the business expansion this month. So, again the caveat is that it is likely a one-off owing to the Paris Olympics. As such, the momentum might not carry on

Overview of Today’s Stock Market Performance The stock market today showcased a varied performance across different sectors, with clear standouts in the technology sector, particularly semiconductors, while energy and utility sectors witnessed a downtrend. This snapshot analysis will delve into specific sectors, providing investors and traders with insights on significant market dynamics driving today’s trading

Goldman Sachs analyzes effective FX hedges in scenarios where both US equities and yields decline, highlighting the most reliable currency positions. Safe-havens JPY and CHF, along with shorts in MXN and AUD, are identified as effective hedges. However, the costs associated with certain strategies prompt a preference for shorts in AUD or GBP due to

Policy is well-positioned, wants gradual, methodical approach to cuttingThere is a clear path to achieving Fed’s goals without unneeded downturn I’m starting to think “policy is well-positioned” is a code for saying that 50 bps isn’t needed. This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

For some context, the Tankan survey is released by the BOJ once every quarter. And it is a general economic indicator of sorts with it being a survey on several thousand Japanese firms, ranging from small to big companies. It also covers a wide range of industries and provides some idea about overall sentiment. The

The dynamic recently has been — weaker dollar, lower yields, higher stocks. Today will be a challenge of that with yields down 4-6 bps across the curve and the dollar higher, particularly USD/JPY (up 75 bps). Fed pricing shows a 28% chance of a 50 bps cut, which is back to where it was before

Wants a gradual and methodical course of rates cutsCurrent monetary policy is in a good place, not overly restrictiveEnd of easing cycle may put Fed funds around 3%Business contacts favor a predictable pace of cuttingFed rate cuts will likely ease housing sector pressureUnemployment likely to rise to just below 5%Continues to watch commercial real estate

Flash PMIs from Australia and Japan due today. These are unlikely to move major FX much upon release. Yen crosses will be moving regardless, volatility is breeding more volatility in JPY. This snapshot from the ForexLive economic data calendar, access it here. The times in the left-most column are GMT. The numbers in the right-most

Prior was 55.0Manufacturing PMI vs 49.6 expected (prior was 49.6)Composite PMI vs 53.5 expected (prior was 54.3) This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

Asked about job benchmark revisions, says data overall tells a consistent storyLabor market overall is quite healthy and we want to preserve thatUnemployment is still low and jobless claims indicate orderly rebalancingLabor market overall is quite healthy and we want to preserve thatSoon is appropriate to begin cutting ratesA gradual and methodical pace of cuts

Anxiety around Powell’s speech tomorrow has crept into equity markets, particularly in light of the comments from the Fed’s Schmid earlier today. He indicated that the Fed had time to evaluate before cutting rates and that was seen as a hawkish view. But I just watched the full interview and it’s not has hawkish as

Currency dynamics and inflation is always a tricky ordeal to debate and/or navigate through. But for most major economies, currency movements are rather controlled and arguably play a small role in terms of influencing price pressures. The same goes for the euro area, or so at least that is what the ECB has been preaching

The dollar is struggling across multiple charts on the week and USD/CAD is no exception. The loonie might be pinned down by falling oil prices this week but it still has been outperforming the dollar. And the slight fall so far today sees USD/CAD fall to its lowest since April on a break below its

The US dollar is higher today after two weeks of steady selling. It’s been supported by a rise in Treasury yields of 8-9 bps across the curve and comments from the Fed’s Schmid, who didn’t sound in a rush to cut rates. Economic data today also underscored an economy that’s fine, with initial jobless claims

Non-farm payrolls benchmark revisions -818KFOMC Minutes: Vast majority said it would likely be appropriate to cut at next meetingEIA weekly crude oil inventories -4649K vs -2672K expectedRFK Jr. to ‘address to the nation’ as talk of dropping out circulates (Update: He’s done)Target shares soar as the US consumer remains strongECB’s Panetta says he hopes the

Prior was 3.93mSales +1.3% vs -5.4% prior (breaks a four-month losing streak)Sales -2.5% y/yInventory 4.0 vs 4.1 months priorMedian prices $422,600 vs $426,900 priorPrices up 4.2% y/yFull report Supply is up 18% year over year. “Despite the modest gain, home sales are still sluggish,” said NAR Chief Economist Lawrence Yun. “But consumers are definitely seeing

Jobs market revisions weren’t a surpriseYou can’t just look at revisions, look at jobless claimsIt was all inflation for awhile, now it’s the balance of risksBusinesses tell us they don’t care if it’s 25 or 50 bps, they want it to be methodical and get to neutralShelter is the price input I’m worrying aboutDevelopers are

Prior -32 UK factory orders fell once more this month but less than July at least. The output expectations balance remains positive at least, though down to 9 from 25 in the month before. CBI notes that “the stop-start recovery seen in recent months continued in August but it is encouraging that manufacturers still remain

Quite strongly believe that we have to sustainably get inflation back to 2%There is still work to do on thatWe’ve seen some cooling in labour market conditions but it is still generally pretty strongOn the NFP revision, “it doesn’t change a lot” to the outlookRates are not overly restrictiveThere is room to consider where we

WTI crude oil is up $1.15 today in a rebound after four days of heavy selling. It was a particularly curious move in crude given that the dollar was falling and risk assets were broadly stronger. Former Goldman Sachs chief commodity analyst Jeff Currie has weighed in with a theory that the selling was a

There are many markets available for traders, each serving different purposes. Stock markets are for investing in companies, crypto markets are for investing in blockchain projects, and so on. But the biggest market among them is forex. Why is the FX market the biggest? In this article, the team of analysts from FTD Limited, the

Prior was -13.0 This is a small setback but there has been a steady recovery from 2022 and that’s starting to be reflected in the FX market with the euro yesterday touching the highest in a year. This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

Headlines: Cable eyes the 2023 high with dollar in the doldrumsECB accounts: Next meeting widely seen as good time to evaluate policy restrictivenessFrance August flash services PMI 55.0 vs 50.3 expectedGermany August flash manufacturing PMI 42.1 vs 43.5 expectedEurozone August flash services PMI 53.3 vs 51.9 expectedEurozone wages slow down in Q2 after running hot

The dollar remains under pressure this week, with bond yields sinking further in US trading yesterday. The revision to the non-farm payrolls here was a key factor, alongside the FOMC meeting minutes as well. A rate cut is certainly coming next month but traders are also growing more confident about a more dovish Fed in

The algos were at work when it comes to the reaction to the PMI data in the past half hour. The French numbers saw a strong beat on the services print as seen here. However, it owes to a major caveat of it being a boost in demand from the Paris Olympics. The details were

Eyes are back on the economic calendar today with some notable releases for the US economy. Initial Jobless Claims at 8:30 ET: Expected to come in at 230K, slightly above last week’s 227K. The 4-week average will also be closely monitored.PMI data at 9:45 ET: S&P Global Manufacturing, Services, and Composite PMIs will provide insight

The commodities market remains an exciting space to monitor in August. Commodities play a pivotal role in the financial markets, an asset class employed to add diversification to a portfolio, acts as an inflation hedge, and is used for speculation and investment purposes. From gold clocking record highs to oil and copper prices navigating lower

You’ve been educating traders for over a decade. What is the most prevalent misconception or recurring mistake you’ve seen by traders? The most prevalent misconception we’ve observed at FX Evolution is the belief that trading success hinges solely on finding the “perfect” strategy. While having a solid strategy is essential, many traders overlook the importance