Trump on Truth Social: “Yesterday, in a meaningless vote, the House voted, 4 bad Republicans and all of the Dumocrats, to limit my War Powers, right in the middle of my final negotiations to end the War with the Islamic Republic of Iran. Who would do such an unpatriotic thing. They know where the negotiations

Prior week for initial jobless claims 209K revised to 212K. Prior week for continuing claims 1.786 million revised to 1.785M initial jobless claims come in higher at 225K vs 213K estimate and a revised 212K last week. Largest since the first week of February 4-week moving average comes in at 214.75K up from 208.25K last

The USDCAD has been trending higher this week, supported by a combination of geopolitical tensions, widening interest-rate differentials, and a weakening Canadian economic backdrop. From a fundamental perspective, the Canadian dollar initially came under pressure as tensions in the Middle East escalated after reports that both Iran and the U.S. violated the ceasefire, exchanging missile

Looking back over the last 15 trading days, most of the AUDUSD price action has been contained within a relatively well-defined range between 0.7100 and 0.7200. There were breaks below the lower boundary on May 19 and May 20, but neither move generated sustained downside momentum. Instead, buyers stepped in near the 0.7100–0.7113 support zone,

S&P 500 futures are down 24 points, or 0.3%, ahead of the open. The loss comes despite comments from President Trump saying the US is in the middle of final negotiations to end the Iran war. For context, Trump made the comment in a post about a House resolution (that passed) to end the war.

AI infrastructure spend on track to rival world’s largest economies, Goldman says ICYMI – Kuwait targets 70% oil output recovery within weeks of Hormuz reopening RBA governor faces Senate grilling as CBA sees rates on hold after three straight hikes Australian April Exports leap higher at +7.2% m/m (vs. -2.7% prior) ANZ commodity index rises

Construction PMI 42.4 Prior 42.1 The sharp contraction in Germany’s construction sector continues in May, as pressure continues to ramp up on both demand conditions and on the price front. New orders continued to decline at a sharp rate, albeit slightly better than in April. Of note, panellists indicated strong headwinds to demand from heightened

The sources say that the BOJ is expected to deliver an interest rate hike in June, barring any sharp escalation in the Middle East conflict that could upend markets. As the war continues to rage on, the sources add that policymakers will continue to scrutinise developments until the last minute before reaching a final decision.

Goldman Sachs estimates capex from Meta, Microsoft, Amazon and Alphabet will reach $5.3 trillion by 2030, more than Japan’s GDP, with total AI infrastructure spend hitting $7.6 trillion Summary: Goldman Sachs estimates combined capex from Meta, Microsoft, Amazon and Alphabet will reach $5.3 trillion by end-2030, surpassing the GDPs of Japan, the UK, India and

The USD is trading lower against the three major currency pairs—EURUSD, USDJPY, and GBPUSD—to kick off the North American session. The EURUSD has moved higher over the last hour of trading and, in the process, climbed back above its converged 100- and 200-hour moving averages at 1.1632. The pair reached a session high of 1.1645.

Summary: Australia’s economy grew 0.3% in Q1 2026, with annual growth steady at 2.5%, driven by household consumption and data centre investment CBA forecasts growth slowing to around 1.5% by year end as household spending softens, the savings rate falls and the housing market weakens Unit labour costs eased materially, with nominal at 3.2% and

Imma never gonna sell man …. did, LOL: ICYMI! Strategy sells Bitcoin for first time since 2022, breaking “never sell” pledge Lose the bid!!! Bitcoin has lost its cool Bitcoin Futures Analysis Today: BTC Stalls Below 74,535 Saylor’s cost basis is around $75.5 per coin. Will probably try to buy more initially. Let’s see how

Dallas Fed’s Logan says monetary policy is not restraining the economy and warns higher rates may be needed later this year to return inflation to the 2% target. Summary: Logan says monetary policy is not restraining the economy, with financial conditions accommodative and corporate earnings performing strongly Inflation is trending toward the mid-2% range rather

FUNDAMENTAL OVERVIEW The S&P 500 has been printing new record highs every week since the start of April despite the prolonged US-Iran stalemate and the Strait of Hormuz closure. The market can support persistently elevated oil prices as long as the Fed maintains a neutral stance as that keeps easing financial conditions. The problem is

FUNDAMENTAL OVERVIEW USD: The US dollar has been mostly rangebound for the past months with bouts of weakness on positive US-Iran headlines, and strength on negative developments. This week, the greenback has been supported by renewed tensions in the Middle East as US and Iran exchanged fire once again, with Iran even attacking US bases

Oil tumbled after positive deal comments from Trump but now we have the leader of Hezbollah in Lebanon pushing back hard. Negotiations with Israel are ‘shameless’ Washington’s announcement is a ‘roadmap to annihilate part of the Lebanese people’ Ceasefire with Israel should include south of Lebanon As long as Israel is in Lebanon, the resistance

US-based employers announced 97,006 job cuts in May, up 16% from the 83,387 job cuts recorded in April. The figure is also up 3% from the 93,816 announced in the same month last year, marking the highest May total since 2020. Of note, this also marks the third straight month that job cuts have risen.

The USDCHF surged higher in trading yesterday, breaking above a key downward-sloping trendline near 0.7893 and then pushing through its 200-day moving average at 0.79066. That move marked the pair’s first break above the 200-day moving average since April 8 and gave buyers the green light to extend the rally. Momentum carried the pair above

Most traders outgrow their first broker. The beginner who opens a small account in order to learn quickly hits a ceiling on tools and guidance, and the systematic trader who needs always-on infrastructure ends up stitching together a server from one vendor, analytics from another, and a TradingView bridge from a third. Switch Markets has

A ceasefire framework was reportedly agreed upon earlier today here. But as has been the case in the past, it doesn’t seem like it will be one to last. The latest communique from Israel is that they will continue fighting in southern Lebanon. And it won’t be the first time that Israel contradicts with what

The People’s Bank of China is due to set the daily USD/CNY reference rate at around 0115 GMT (2115 US Eastern time), a fixing that remains one of the most closely watched signals in Asian foreign exchange markets. China operates a managed floating exchange rate system, under which the renminbi (yuan) is allowed to trade

Kuwait could restore 70% of oil output within 6-8 weeks of a Hormuz reopening, KPC said, as ADNOC warned full transit recovery may not come until mid-2027. Summary: Source: Reuters, reporting from the S&P Global Energy Middle East Petroleum and Gas Conference, London, June 3 Kuwait Petroleum Corporation’s managing director for international marketing said Kuwait

Societe Generale notes that while intervention threat persists, Japan has struggled to really shift the discourse in the yen outlook ever since 2022. Considering the current circumstances, the environment for a weaker yen currency looks set to persist for a bit longer. The firm also argues that while intervention from Japan’s ministry of finance may

Construction PMI 38.2 vs 40.2 expected Prior 39.7 Ouch. That’s a terrible reading as things are just getting worse for UK’s construction sector in Q2. The estimate indicates that construction output fell at its sharpest pace since May 2020. And if you discount the drop during the Covid pandemic, this marks the steepest decline in

Retail sales -0.4% vs -0.3% m/m expected Prior -0.1%; revised to +0.8% The drag in April needs to be put into a bit of context as it follows from a sharp revision higher to the March number. And that came after a positive revision to non-food retail sales in ending Q1 (from +0.6% to +1.7%).

The GBPUSD is extending to new session lows and, in the process, has slipped back below its 200-day moving average at 1.3420, a level that has become an important battleground between buyers and sellers. Over the last six trading days, the pair has traded below the 200-day moving average on all but one occasion, but

Agreement on the release of frozen Iranian funds in its final stages The main obstacle relates to the mechanism for disposing of part of the frozen Iranian funds Trump informed the mediators of his refusal to release funds to Iran before signing the agreement Proposal to create a special fund for depositing frozen Iranian funds

Inflation is still too high Will do what is considered necessary to achieve our mandate Having raised the cash rate three times, monetary policy is well placed to respond to developments We’ve already seen some signs that this tightening is starting to work Although, it will take around 1-2 years for the effects to fully

Banks warn Hormuz closure is pushing oil markets toward a supply tipping point, with HSBC flagging non-linear price spikes and JPMorgan projecting the Strait could reopen in June. Summary: JPMorgan forecasts the Strait of Hormuz could reopen in June, driven by the accelerating pace of oil inventory depletion rather than any identified diplomatic or military

There are just a couple of expiries to take note of on the day, as highlighted in bold below. The first ones are for EUR/USD with the larger one at the 1.1600 level in focus. The figure level has been acting as a bit of a floor for the currency pair in the past few

May ISM services index 54.5 vs 53.8 expected US May ADP employment data +122K vs +117K expected Iran foreign minister: Contact with the US has not been severed but no progress made Iran targeted a US military ship in the Gulf of Oman – report Fed’s Beige Book continues to see slight-to-moderate US growth Geopolitical

Australian April 2026 trade data, gives a trade balance of 1.791bn AUD surplus expected -1.61bn, prior -1.84bn I’ll have more to come on this separately. In brief exports or iron ore, coal and LPG strong. Imports of capital goods fell away while those fuel surged. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

Crude oil futures settled at $96.02, gaining $2.26, or 2.41%, as buyers remained firmly in control throughout the session. Prices traded in a wide range, reaching a high of $97.00 and a low of $93.45, but the overall trend remained higher as bullish momentum continued to build. The technical foundation for today’s rally was established

The PBOC allows the yuan to fluctuate within a +/- 2% range, around this reference rate. More here. Zero 7-day reverse repos in open market operates today. Second day in a row. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

The news: Here we go again. Israel, Lebanon agree ceasefire framework, but Hezbollah holds the key. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

It feels like we’re at a tipping point in this conflict. Either both sides agree to some kind of text shortly or we’re into an escalation spiral. CNN is also out with a report saying that monetary compensation is a main sticking point. Iran wants some form of monetary compensation to be released immediately after

Israel and Lebanon have agreed a ceasefire framework under US guidance, contingent on full Hezbollah withdrawal from southern Lebanon, with comprehensive talks to resume the week of June 22. Summary: Source: US State Department statement, June 3 Israel and Lebanon agreed to a ceasefire and the creation of pilot zones in which Lebanese armed forces

Trump has privately told aides he would only end the Iran ceasefire if US troops are killed, and acknowledged the blockade could last until Labor Day, the Wall Street Journal reported. Summary: Trump privately told aides he would consider ending the ceasefire only if Iran kills American troops, suggesting he is prepared to tolerate ongoing

ABC news in the US: The House adopted a resolution to rein in President Donald Trump’s Iran war powers for the first time vote of 215-208 the resolution is symbolic in nature This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

ANZ’s world commodity price index rose 0.7% in May, led by aluminium prices up 49.1% y/y after Persian Gulf production fell 35% due to Middle East conflict damage. Summary: Source: ANZ Commodity Price Index, May 2026, published June 4 The ANZ World Commodity Price Index rose 0.7% m/m in May to 410.0, up 1.3% y/y,

Trump and his officials have undermined their own credibility time and time again on so many issues, so just a heads up here. Rollins says additional USDA personnel deployed to South Texas Urges livestock producers vigilance Screworm isbeing fully contained Not a harm to US food supply or safety This article was written by Eamonn

Have a look at the chart of Sandisk. This company was once a sleepy maker of solid-state drives, memory cards and flash drives. You’re likely to have an old stick drive in a cupboard somewhere or one of their insertable memory chips in an old phone or digital camera. At this time last year, it

It’s been twice now that the pair has hit 159.99 today before pulling back just a little bit. Since the second week of May, it has been one-wary traffic for USD/JPY in moving back up to near the 160.00 mark. Despite intervention from Japan’s ministry of finance, the path of least resistance remains higher for

Prior was -0.1% (revised to -0.3%) Unit labour costs +1.4% q/q, fourth consecutive gain (+3.2% y/y) Goods led the decline (-1.7%); ag/forestry cratered -8.6%, construction -2.3% Statistics Canada says business sector labour productivity fell 0.5% in Q1, the second straight quarterly drop after -0.3% in Q4. The Q4 number was revised down from -0.1% in

China’s SAIC Motor plans its first EU factory in Spain’s Galicia, with a 200 million euro initial investment, 120,000-vehicle annual capacity and an operational target of end-2028. Summary: Sources: Reuters; Xinhua SAIC Motor will build its first European Union manufacturing facility in Galicia, northwestern Spain, located between the port of Ferrol and the town of

The USDJPY has finally pushed above the psychologically important 160.00 level, reaching a session high of 160.04 and extending the bullish momentum that has been building over the last several days. The move is notable not only because of the round-number significance, but also because the area around 160.00 has repeatedly attracted attention from Japanese

The USDCAD is pushing to a new session high and, in the process, is testing an important resistance zone defined by last Thursday’s high at 1.38689. The pair has now reached 1.3869, putting buyers and sellers at a key technical crossroads. Looking at the hourly chart, 1.38689 marks the lower boundary of a swing area

Prior was -3327K Gasoline +3364K vs -513K expected Distillates +1502K vs -319K expected Refinery utilization +0.2% vs +0.3% expected API data released late yesterday: Crude -6750K Gasoline -3199K Distillates -214K WTI crude oil was up $1.10 to $94.92 ahead of the report. This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

Bitcoin reached its 2026 low on February 4 near the $60,000 level before staging a corrective rally that peaked in mid-May at the declining 200-day moving average (green line on the chart below). However, the inability to break above that key technical barrier gave sellers the green light to reassert control, and the price has

Recent headline news has been full of different geopolitical headlines: Two rockets have been launched from southern Lebanon toward Israel. Rubio says it’s impossible to sign any agreement with Iran that does not include highly enriched uranium. Treasury Secretary Bessent acknowledges that relations with China are more stable. Will see if China commits to larger

Blockchain applications are only as good as the infrastructure that supports them. A wallet needs to update balances. An exchange needs to track deposits. A DeFi platform needs data from the blockchain and trading tools need access to blockchain networks. These are the needs that blockchain node providers can meet. They let teams connect to

Trump tries again. US proposes 10% tariffs on 60 nations, forced-labour Section 301 probe Australia Q1 GDP slows to 0.3% as data centre imports drag on growth China Services PMI, May 2026 54.4 (expect 52.3, prior 52.6) fastest expansion in 3 months Australia Q1 2026 GDP 0.3% q/q and 2.5% y/y. PBOC sets USD/ CNY

Limassol, Cyprus – May 2026, easyMarkets has announced the launch of its new MT5 trading experiences, introducing three account types designed to provide traders with greater flexibility, personalised support, and access to tailored trading benefits. Launched under the campaign theme “Your Trading. Your Level.”, the new offering aims to create a more customised trading experience

The EURUSD has trended steadily lower today after finding willing sellers just ahead of its 200-hour moving average at 1.1634. The session high reached 1.1633, falling one pip short of that key technical level before rotating lower. The downside move extended into the North American session, where the pair tested an upward-sloping trendline connecting the

Iran always lies, always cheats You have to have a way to remove nuclear material We want to make sure Iran doesn’t pose a threat to Israel and America, that’s our common goal Some times we have tactical disagreements We always find a way to work out our differences We have to disarm Hezbollah and

SpaceX plans to raise $75bn (Reuters cite an unnamed source) in its IPO by selling 555.6 million shares at $135 each, implying a $1.75 trillion valuation; the roadshow begins Thursday, a source told Reuters. Summary: SpaceX plans to raise $75 billion by selling 555.6 million shares at a target price of $135 each, implying a

Services PMI 44.3 vs 42.9 prelim Prior 46.5 Composite PMI 44.9 vs 43.5 prelim Prior 47.6 Even with an improvement to the initial estimates, this is still a very poor reading for French services activity. Of note, both activity and new business levels decreased at their steepest rates in five-and-a-half years with employment conditions also

Longer war increases likelihood of second-round effects I don’t see second-round effects yet The balance of risks has clearly deteriorated ECB’s Elderson warned that a prolonged conflict in the Middle East increases the risk that today’s energy-driven inflation shock evolves into broader and more persistent price pressures, reinforcing expectations that the ECB will raise interest

The U.S. dollar is mostly higher but little changed overall as traders continue to navigate a slow and choppy session. In the video above, I break down the technical picture for the three major currency pairs — EURUSD, USDJPY, and GBPUSD. While none of the pairs are making large moves, each is trading around key

Prior 46.9 Final Composite PMI 48.8 vs 48.6 prelim Prior 48.4 Key findings: Service sector remains in contraction in May, but expectations rebound Business activity falls for second month running, albeit at a slower pace Expectations for activity in the next 12 months rebound from April’s low Output price inflation eases despite persistent strong cost

Business activity index vs 55.9 prior Employment 47.9 vs 48.0 prior New orders 57.3 vs 53.5 prior Prices paid 71.3 vs 70.7 prior Supplier deliveries 55.2 vs 56.8 prior Inventories 62.5 vs 53.1 prior Backlog of orders 51.3 vs 53.0 prior New export orders 50.0 vs 52.1 prior Imports 51.1 vs 54.7 prior Inventory sentiment

The US proposed tariffs of at least 10% on imports from around 60 countries under a Section 301 forced-labour probe, with higher 12.5% levies targeting China, India, Japan and others. Summary: Source: Office of the US Trade Representative; reporting by financial newswires The USTR has recommended tariffs of at least 10% on imports from approximately

Prior 49.8 Composite PMI 50.4 vs 50.5 prior Key findings: Italian service providers face strongest cost pressures since start of 2023 Business activity falls for third month running New business back in contraction Rate of cost inflation hits 40-month high Comment: Eleanor Dennison, Economist at S&P Global Market Intelligence: “The Italian private sector continued to

Headlines: US president Trump reaffirms that Iran has agreed to not have a nuclear weapon Iran reserves right to defend against any country permitting US attacks EU says latest US tariffs on forced labour grounds are unjustified USD/JPY continues to poke and prod at intervention strike zone BOJ governor Ueda says will continue to raise

Inflation should be elevated through remainder of year Policy is in exactly the right place, there is no need to raise or lower rates I’m not that worried about persistent impacts on inflation so far Higher energy prices are driving up costs and inflation Economy should growth around 2%, job market has stabilized The job

Data for Australian economic growth in the January – March quarter of 2026. GDP 0.3% q/q expected 0.5%, prior 0.8% GDP 2.5% y/y expected 2.7%, prior 2.6% Rising rates and war impacts will bite harder in Q2. — Capital Expenditure 3.0% q/q (huge, data centres linked) prior 0.7% Final Consumption 0.3% q/q prior 0.5% This

Prior month factory orders 1.5% revised higher to 1.8% Factory orders for April 4.8% vs 4.6% estimate Durable Goods revision for April 8.0% vs 7.9% preliminary. Durable goods in March was 1.3% Durable Goods ex defense 8.1% vs 8.1% preliminary. Last month -0.3% Durable goods ex Transportation 1.1% versus 1.1% preliminary. Last month 1.1% Non

Prior was 50.9 Final April reading was 51.0 Final composite PMI 51.5 vs 51.7 prelim and 51.7 prior The ISM services survey is due at the top of the hour, alongside factory orders. Four of seven sectors expanded, down from five in April and the fewest since June 2025. Healthcare leading isn’t exactly cyclical expansion

Australia’s Q1 GDP rose 0.3% q/q and 2.5% y/y, both below forecasts, as a surge in data centre and fuel imports wiped 0.8 percentage points from growth despite strong domestic demand. Summary: Australian Bureau of Statistics, Q1 2026 National Accounts GDP rose 0.3% q/q in Q1 2026, below the 0.5% consensus and down sharply from

The USDCHF is moving higher today after closing yesterday within a key swing area between 0.7869 and 0.7878. During early trading, buyers leaned against the lower end of that zone, which also coincided with the 38.2% retracement of the decline from the April high to the May low at 0.7868. Holding that support gave buyers

There are just a couple of expiries to take note of on the day, as highlighted in bold below. The first being for EUR/USD at the 1.1625 level. The expiries don’t tie to any technical significance but could act as a bit of a magnet for price action in the session ahead. That as the

US forces fired a Hellfire missile into the engine room of a Botswana-flagged tanker heading for Iran’s Kharg Island on June 2, the sixth vessel disabled since the blockade began April 13. Earlier: Oil draw larger than expected. Oil climbs to 1 week high, Iran-US deal signals stay mixed Summary: US forces disabled the Botswana-flagged

The PBOC allows the yuan to fluctuate within a +/- 2% range, around this reference rate. More here. Zero 7-day reverse repos in open market operates today. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

The People’s Bank of China is due to set the daily USD/CNY reference rate at around 0115 GMT (2115 US Eastern time), a fixing that remains one of the most closely watched signals in Asian foreign exchange markets. China operates a managed floating exchange rate system, under which the renminbi (yuan) is allowed to trade

Prior was +109K (revised to +105K) Details: Goods -3K versus +15K last month Service +36K versus +94K last month Small business +49K vs +65K prior Medium businesses +10K vs +2K last month Large businesses +40K vs +42K last month Wages: Wages for job stayers 4.4% vs 4.4% last month Wages for job changers 6.5% vs

BTC trading $67,468, down ~6% on the day and through $70,000 for the first time since April Off roughly 45% from the October 2025 high near $128,000 May was the worst month of the year for spot-ETF flows: ~$2.4 billion out the door Last week alone: ~$1.67 billion of crypto fund outflows, the second-worst week

Prior 47.9 More to come.. This article was written by Justin Low at investinglive.com.

Hostilities continue in the Gulf. Incoming: reports of air raid sirens going off across Kuwait Kuwaiti air defenses are currently confronting hostile missile and drone attacks missiles reportedly aimed at Ali Al Salem Air Base in Kuwait reports of 4 or 5 explosions Iran media: A ballistic missile was launched from Fars Province, Iran Further

US and partner forces intercepted all Iranian ballistic missiles fired at Kuwait and Bahrain on June 2 and struck a military ground station on Qeshm Island in self-defense; no US personnel were harmed. Summary: Source: US Central Command US and partner forces defeated multiple Iranian ballistic missiles and drones launched across the Middle East on

China’s services PMI rose to 54.4 in May from 52.6, the fastest expansion in three months, with new orders growing for a 41st straight month and employment returning to growth. Earlier PMI data for the month: Official PMIs for May were mixed, while the private manufacturing PMI fell to 51.8. China’s services acceleration stands in

New Zealand data Terms of Trade Index Q1 -2.0% q/q expected -1.2%, prior 3.7% Export Prices Q1 -2.7% q/q expected -1.1%, prior 5.3% Import Prices Q1 -0.7% q/q expected +0.3%, prior 1.5% Building Permits April +10.9% m/m prior -1.3% This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

Amid the chaos unfolding in the Middle East right now Chaos descending on Middle East – air attacks on Saudi Arabia, Dubai now being reported US and partners intercept Iranian missiles and drones across Gulf Japan’s Finance Minister Katayama said Tokyo is prepared to respond appropriately on forex as needed, declining to specify levels as

The 2026 UBS Global Family Office Report highlighted growing concern about the U.S. dollar. With geopolitical tensions and rapidly expanding public debt, nearly 3 in 10 respondents say they have already cut back or are considering cutting back their exposure to dollar-denominated assets. Should the rest of the investors follow? Although the dollar’s share of

Services PMI 47.7 vs 46.4 prelim Prior 47.6 Composite PMI 48.5 vs 47.5 prelim Prior 48.8 Despite the troubles in France, the overall Eurozone services economy managed to hold up in May. However, private sector business activity as a whole fell to an 18-month low and marked back-to-back months of contraction for the first time

Japan’s services PMI flatlined at 50.0 in May as business costs surged to a 43-month high on Middle East war disruption, ending 13 months of sector expansion. Summary: Source: S&P Global Japan Services PMI, May 2026 The headline Services Business Activity Index fell to 50.0 in May from 51.0 in April, ending a 13-month expansion

Discussion on policy setting in June “will be quite easy” if Middle East conflict remains unresolved If a peace deal is confirmed just before the meeting, it will be part of the discussion However, we won’t know whether it will last or be credible But if a peace deal is confirmed, any policy talk “might

Data yesterday suggested Australia’s GDP is going to come in under the expectations showing in the screenshot below at 0.5% and 2.7%. A new survey has not been done, but I’d be around 0.3% and 2.4% now. Also on the agenda, China private services PMI. Official PMIs for May were mixed, while the private manufacturing

Japan’s cabinet approved a ¥3.1 trillion supplementary budget funded by deficit bonds to subsidise fuel and utility costs, with a ¥2.5 trillion reserve targeting gasoline prices first. Summary: Japan’s cabinet approved a ¥3.1 trillion ($19 billion) supplementary budget to cushion households and businesses from Middle East-driven inflationary pressure The package creates a ¥2.5 trillion contingency

Kuwait, Bahrain, Iraq all attacked, now Saudi Arabia and Dubai. This is a dramatic escalation that takes the conflict well beyond the Hormuz shipping lane and into the heart of Gulf energy infrastructure and US military basing. Bahrain hosts the US Navy’s Fifth Fleet and Saudi Arabia is the world’s largest crude exporter; missile strikes

US stocks opened lower but found a bid and finished modestly higher, extending one of the most-impressive rallies in recent memory. A true indication of the state of the market was a nearly 30% rally in shares of Marvell Technology Inc, a semi-conductor designer. The catalyst for the move was Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang saying

First, oil inventory data. This is from the privately surveyed oil stock data ahead of official government data tomorrow morning out of the US. Via oilprice.com: Expectations I had seen centred on: Headline crude -3.6mn barrels Distillates -0.6 mn bbls Gasoline +3.5 mn As for Tuesday, oil higher. Brent settled at $96.00 and WTI at

India’s RBI may have sold around $12bn in gold in the two weeks to May 22 to shore up foreign exchange reserves strained by high oil prices and a weakening rupee, Bloomberg Economics estimates. Summary: Source: Times of India, citing Bloomberg Economics analysis Bloomberg Economics estimates the RBI sold approximately $12 billion in gold during

Australia’s services PMI fell to 48.7 in May from 50.7, with new orders contracting at the fastest pace in two and a half years and employment falling for the first time since late 2024. Summary: Source: S&P Global Australia Services PMI, May 2026 The services Business Activity Index fell to 48.7 in May from 50.7

Canada’s trade minister says US talks are unfrozen and a meeting with USTR Greer was positive, but warned the road to conclusions is not always a straight line. Summary: LeBlanc described a meeting with US Trade Representative Jamieson Greer as positive, with a follow-up planned for next week Canada raised concerns over US tariffs on

Bitcoin has lost its cool Copper prices are nearing records as analysts get increasingly bullish Trump to Iran: It is time to make a deal Crude oil prices move above the 200 hour MA at $92.48 Hezbollah will not accept partial ceasefire with Israel – report Bank of England’s Greene: Risk of acting is less

Copper prices continue to ratchet higher as the tightness in the market that’s been predicted for years begins to bite. I’ve been writing for years that copper is the simplest investment thesis anywhere and it continues to play out according to the script. There simply isn’t enough to meet the coming demand for AI and

The AUDUSD is trading higher today after finding solid support during the early Asian-Pacific session against its 100-hour and 200-hour moving averages near 0.7155. Holding above that key technical zone gave buyers the green light to re-enter, helping drive the pair to a North American session high of 0.7188. The pair currently trades near 0.7185,

Trump on TruthSocial is saying Trump says reports that the U.S. and Iran stopped communicating are false. He claims discussions between U.S. and Iranian officials have continued without interruption, including over the past several days. He emphasizes that talks were active four days ago, three days ago, two days ago, one day ago, and today.

The USD is mixed but little changed to start the new trading day. In the video above, I focus on the three major currency pairs—EURUSD, USDJPY, and GBPUSD—from a technical perspective, highlighting the key levels that define the bias, risk, and potential targets for each pair, while explaining why those levels matter. EURUSD is trading

Goldman Sachs is speaking at the Economic club of New York and to CNBC. I believe AI is going to unleash a growth moment, productivity boom Demand for community is not going to go in straight line everybody is currently projecting I do not believe we are going to have massive structural unemployment due to

I came across an interesting Bloomberg article reporting that Ken Griffin’s Citadel is preparing to launch a program that would collect trading insights from other hedge funds in exchange for a fee, with those ideas potentially feeding into Citadel’s quantitative strategies. Also reported earlier by Yahoo, both articles highlights a much bigger topic that many

The main talk of the town yesterday was US president Trump looking to broker a ceasefire between Israel and Lebanon. He confirmed that by saying that “all shooting will stop”, allowing for the US to at least try and negotiate with Iran again on a broader framework agreement. As mentioned before, the Israel-Hezbollah ceasefire is

The irks of acting, even if inflation is less persistent, is less severe than the risk of failing to act The market is pricing in a 50% chance of a rate hike at the July 30 meeting. I suspect that which way that breaks will depend on the war. This article was written by Adam

CPI +3.2% vs +3.2% y/y expected Prior +3.0% Core CPI +2.5% vs +2.4% y/y expected Prior +2.2% The headline estimate moves up in May, as expected, with energy price inflation being the standout once again. Even though energy prices were down 1.1% on the month, it is still up by 10.9% year-on-year (up from 10.8%

The major US indices are now all higher with the Dow up 0.12%, the S&P up 0.19%, and the NASDAQ index up 0.22%. Nvidia continues its move to the upside with a gain of 2.27% at $229.52. Yesterday moved above its 100 hour moving average at $220.67. The high-priced today reached $232.28 that is about

FUNDAMENTAL OVERVIEW USD: The US dollar has been mostly rangebound for the past months with bouts of weakness on positive US-Iran headlines, and strength on negative developments. Last week, it gained ground in the first part of the week on heightened tensions in the Strait of Hormuz as US and Iran continued to exchange fire

Crude oil prices came under pressure earlier in the day, falling to a low of $90.12. That decline found willing buyers just above the 100-hour moving average at $90.10, a key technical support level. Holding that support gave buyers the confidence to step back in, and the rebound has since lifted prices to $93.23, up

That’s the kind of comment that’s a pushback on pricing for 50 bps of hikes in the next year despite a weak economy. Those risks won’t really materialize though until the war is over and oil prices begin to fall. If/when that happens, then the BOE will be getting help on inflation from energy. What

ECB’s Rehn said that an interest rate increase at the ECB’s June meeting should be viewed as an “insurance” move to guard against future inflation risks, even if current inflation expectations remain well anchored. The characterization of a June rate move as an “insurance hike” indicates that policymakers are unlikely to deliver a back-to-back rate

Hezbollah rejects a partial ceasefire with Israel, AFP reports. Yesterday, a report citing Lebanon’s parliamentary speaker said Hezbollah was ready for a ceasefire. What Israel appeared to offer — via Bibi — was that they wouldn’t strike Beirut in exchange for Hezbollah standing down. I ridiculed the suggestion at the time because it included Israel

Japan is considering cutting its 8% food sales tax to 1% from April 2027 for two years, the Mainichi reported, with the timeline designed to support PM Takaichi ahead of municipal elections. Summary: Japan is considering a two-year cut to the 8% food consumption tax from April 2027, with the rate likely set at 1%

The European Parliament committee just voted in favour of the legislation to remove duties on many US goods and imports, essentially steering clear of another clash with the US on trade – such as the one last year. As a reminder, US president Trump set a deadline of 4 July for the EU to sort

South Korea May 2026 CPI: +0.5% m/m expected +0.3%, prior +0.5% +3.1% y/y expected +3.0%, prior +2.6% Core CPI +2.5% y/y prior +2.2% This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

Ask most traders how they chose a platform and they will mention leverage ratios, spreads, or market access. Ask them six months later what actually cost them money and the answer is almost always different: they did not understand margin, they had no exit plan, or they did not realise how one bad position was

There have been various reports about whether the US and Iran are talking. Now Rubio says that talks are continuing. Another notable line from him is that “there is a prospect that Iran has agreed to negotiate aspects of nuclear program that they previously refused to mention in discussions”. So that’s potentially positive. WTI crude

📉 Technology Takes a Hit The technology sector saw a mixed bag with notable declines. Microsoft (MSFT) fell by 3.62%, and Oracle (ORCL) dropped 3.26%, leading the losses in software infrastructure. Conversely, Nvidia (NVDA) maintained positive momentum with a 1.82% gain, highlighting some investor confidence in semiconductors despite challenges elsewhere. 🏦 Financials Make a Comeback

Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack is a hawk and has been consistent in that thinking since last summer. With her latest comments she underscores the worries about inflation that won’t be going away if the Strait of Hormuz remains blocked and AI super-spending continues: ‘Reasonable’ to keep rates steady for now given uncertainties There are

The report cites a source familiar with the situation, in saying that Iran’s final text of the deal is still being discussed in Tehran at this juncture. Adding that there is no response yet that is sent to the US on that. There has been so much back and forth on the text/terms of the

ECB policymaker Rehn says June rate move would be an “insurance” hike Marvell Technology stock soars as Nvidia CEO says it’s “the next trillion-dollar company” Euro area inflation continues to pick up in May, core prices nudge up as well Gold analysis shows it repaired higher. See my targets. UK mortgage approvals climbs in April,

The major U.S. stock indices closed at record highs, led by strong gains in the NASDAQ. The lone weak spot was the small-cap sector, with the Russell 2000 finishing lower on the day. Equities managed to advance despite a sharp jump in energy prices, highlighting the market’s continued resilience in the face of geopolitical uncertainty.

Trump said he brokered a halt to Israel-Hezbollah fire and expects an Iran deal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz within a week, though markets remain deeply sceptical of his conflict timeline. Summary: Source: Donald Trump via Truth Social and ABC News Trump said he called Netanyahu and asked him not to proceed with a

Shares of Alphabet are down 2.9% after the company announced it’s diluting existing shareholders by 1.7% via an $80 billion equity raise. To me, this marks a new chapter in the AI arms race and is the strongest sign yet that it’s an arms race of the likes never seen before in corporate history. Just

Palladium Futures Holds Bullish Repair Above $1397 Prediction Score: +2 / +10Bias: Mildly bullish above 1397, but not yet a clean bullish takeover Palladium futures, PA SEP26, are attempting to repair from the lower-zone damage seen in late May. The market has improved from the 1353-1372 area and is now pressing back above the 1397

Gold futures technical analysis: GC repairs higher, but traders should not chase into upper-range resistance Prediction Score: +3 / +10Reliability / Confidence: Medium-lowMarket state: Bullish repair with upper-range congestion Gold futures have shifted from bearish pressure into a constructive bullish repair phase, but the market is now testing the upper side of a broader trading

At Computex Taipei, one of the world’s largest and most influential technology trade shows, held annually in Taipei (Taiwan), Marvell Technology CEO Matt Murphy said that as AI models evolve into increasingly complex AI agents, the next major challenge facing data centers may no longer be computing power or memory capacity, but the ability to

The Bank of Japan’s latest Summary of Opinions from meetings with market participants revealed differing views on the future pace of Japanese government bond (JGB) purchase reductions, highlighting the difficult balancing act the BoJ faces as bond yields continue to climb. Several participants argued that the need for additional tapering remains limited. One participant stated

Japan’s Finance Minister Katayama declined to comment on FX intervention, flagging oil market volatility and close coordination with Washington as Tokyo signals readiness to act. Summary: Source: Japan Finance Minister Katayama, press comments June 2, 2026 Katayama declined to comment on currency intervention activity or current forex moves, saying she would not go beyond the

ISM manufacturing rises to the highest since 2022 Iran cuts off talks, says there won’t be negotiations with aggression in Lebanon – report Trump: Hezbollah agreed that all shooting will stop, talks with Iran continue Trump to CNBC:If Iranian’s try to have a nuclear weapon,I will “blow them to kingdom come” Netanyahu: The IDF will

The latest money and credit data from the BOE shows that net borrowing of mortgage debt by individuals decreased to £4.4 billion in April. That follows from the £6.8 billion recorded in March. As for net mortgage approvals, that is seen increasing to 65,900 as compared to 64,000 in the month before. The figure is

The People’s Bank of China is due to set the daily USD/CNY reference rate at around 0115 GMT (2115 US Eastern time), a fixing that remains one of the most closely watched signals in Asian foreign exchange markets. China operates a managed floating exchange rate system, under which the renminbi (yuan) is allowed to trade

The push and pull continues for gold, as traders are still trying to make sense of what to do with the US-Iran situation. Deal or no deal? That remains the question. The longer that the whole saga drags on, there’s also a negative undercurrent that looks set to run over gold prices in the bigger

Key takeaways for traders and investors following oil today Crude oil futures repaired strongly from the 86.35-87.00 lower zone, but buyers failed to sustain control near the 94.20-94.78 upper shelf. The current oil analysis leans mildly bearish, with a Prediction Score of -3 / +10. The key lower-value area to watch is 91.37-91.78. A sustained

Oil settled more than 4% higher Monday after Iran’s Tasnim said Tehran halted US talks and planned to fully block the Strait of Hormuz, before Trump’s social media posts pared some gains. Summary: Iran’s Tasnim reported Tehran had halted indirect message exchanges with Washington and that Iran and its “Resistance Front” allies planned to completely

There isn’t anything here likely to swing around financial markets too much upon release. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

BofA’s Sell Side Indicator hit its highest level since February 2025, a point that preceded a 1,000-point S&P drop, as the bank set a 7,100 target and urged investors to “sell in June.” Summary: Source: Bank of America, strategists led by Savita Subramanian and Victoria Roloff BofA’s Sell Side Indicator ended May at 56.2%, its

Australia’s net trade will subtract ~0.8ppt from Q1 GDP as data centre and fuel imports surged and commodity exports fell, with government spending flat and the current account deficit wider than forecast. Earlier: Australia widening current account deficit, inventory draw to weigh on Q1 GDP RBA’s hawkish Harper hints herald hike Summary points: Net exports

Once again Trump’s credibility gap is affirmed: claimed he had personally brokered a halt to hostilities between Israel and Hezbollah Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu response, No. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

S&P 500 fails upper repair as sellers push price back toward lower value Last updated: June 1, 2026, 10:48 PM ETInstrument: S&P 500 futures contractCurrent analytical score: -4 / +10Market state: Failed bullish repair / bearish control returning into lower-value test Key takeaways for today’s S&P 500 traders S&P 500 futures failed to sustain the

Commerzbank (note from Friday) raised its Brent forecast to $90/bbl by end-September and $85 by year-end, up from $80 for both, citing Hormuz closure, inventory draws and a slow Gulf output recovery. Summary: Brent forecast raised to $90/bbl by end-September and $85 by year-end, up from a prior $80 for both periods, on the assumption

Kiwibank now expects the RBNZ to begin hiking in July after a 3:3 split vote, warning the central bank risks overtightening into an economy still scarred by recession. Summary: The RBNZ held the OCR at 2.25% on a 3:3 split vote, with external members pushing for hikes and internal members, including Governor, opting to hold

Strategy sold 32 bitcoin for ~$2.5M last week to fund preferred stock dividends, its first sale since 2022, breaking the “never sell” doctrine and sending MSTR shares down over 6%. Summary: Strategy sold 32 BTC for approximately $2.5 million last week, its first Bitcoin disposal since late 2022 The sale was made to fund distributions

The S&P 500 is up 36 points, or 0.5%, and a fresh record. The 7617 level is the new peak and comes on the same headline’s about a ceasefire that have helped to fuel the rally from 6300 just a few weeks ago. It’s been a sensational rally that’s likely more driven by AI enthusiasm

Trump just now: I had a very productive call with Prime Minister Bibi Netanyahu, of Israel, and there will be no Troops going to Beirut, and any Troops that are on their way, have already been turned back. Likewise, through highly placed Representatives, I had a very good call with Hezbollah, and they agreed that

FUNDAMENTAL OVERVIEW Gold rallied strongly in the final part of last week on expectations of an imminent US-Iran deal. The catalyst that started the rally was an Axios report on Thursday saying that US and Iran had reached a 60-day memorandum of understanding (MoU) and the agreement required final approval from Trump. We got another

As the USD moves higher after the news headlines that Iran was to stop exchanging messages with the US in protest against “Israeli crimes”, has sent oil higher, yields higher, stocks lower and the USD higher. The USDCAD, AUDUSD and NZDUSD have been solid movers with the USDCAD the least impacted with a decline of

The USD is higher but little changed vs most of the major currencies. It is trading above and below unchanged vs the GBP, and up vs the EUR and the JPY by about 0.13% to start the North American session. Over the weekend, the U.S. carried out “self-defense” strikes on Iranian radar and drone command-and-control

China’s official manufacturing PMI slipped to 50.0 in May from 50.3, matching forecasts, as export orders contracted sharply; the non-manufacturing PMI rose to 50.1, beating the 49.5 consensus. Summary: China’s NBS Manufacturing PMI fell to 50.0 in May from 50.3 in April, matching the Reuters poll forecast of 50.0, according to the National Bureau of

Eamonn Jaffers from CNBC spoke with Trump. Some comments: I don’t care if negotiations are over with Iran. I really don’t care. If they are over they are over. He thinks Iranians have been “tapping us along” Oil will be dropping like a rock if Iranians try to have a nuclear weapon, I will blow

Bitcoin Futures Struggle Below 74,535 as Bullish Repair Attempt Stalls Last updated: 1 June 2026 Instrument: BTC JUN26 futures Prediction score: -1 / +10 Bias: Neutral to mildly bearish Market state: Neutral balance / failed bullish repair attempt inside prior damage Key takeaways for Bitcoin futures traders BTC futures has repaired from the 72,600-72,900 washout

Although the NASDAQ is higher by roughly 100 points at the time of this recording, the performance beneath the surface is far from uniform. Some of the index’s largest heavyweight stocks are posting solid gains, while others are under pressure. In this video, I break down the technical picture for Nvidia, Amazon, Alphabet, Microsoft, and

GDP +0.7% vs +0.6% q/q expected Prior +0.1%; revised to +0.2% GDP (adjusted for sporting events) +0.4% q/q Prior +0.5% Looking at the details, it is the industrial sector that helped to bring up growth in the first quarter of 2026. The sector grew strongly (+1.3%) with manufacturing (+1.5%) in particular being a key component

Retail sales -0.3% vs -0.5% m/m expected Prior -2.0%; revised to -0.3% The report here needs to be taken into context alongside the revision to the March numbers as well. There was a sharp revision higher to March retail sales, so that at least paints a better backdrop to work with during the onset of

WTI crude oil prices are up $7.02 to $94.35 on the biggest challenge to the Iran-USA ceasefire yet. A report from Tansim said Iran’s negotiators have stopped responding to messages from the USA in light of the ongoing Israeli attacks in Lebanon. Those attacks have basically continued non-stop since the ceasefire was declared and Iran

Pres. Trump on NBC is saying: He has not heard from Iran on reports there suspending talks. I think we’ve been talking too much. If you want to know the truth, I think going silent would be very good I couldn’t agree more. This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com.

May manufacturing PMI 51.2 vs 52.0 expected Prior 51.7 April was defined by firms rushing orders to stock up, so naturally May is showing some of that unwinding as new orders placed with manufacturers declined. The standout details from the report though are that supply chain delays are intensifying as product shortages were reported, and

Mixed signals in tech and energy surge: A tale of two sectors Today’s market dynamics painted a complex picture as tech giants faced challenges, while energy stocks shone amid an uncertain trading landscape. Let’s delve into the market heatmap and uncover the sector intricacies that defined today’s session. 📈 Tech Sector: A mixed bag of

A Lebanese official tells Axios that Hezbollah is ready for a full ceasefire. There are bids in equities and selling in oil on the headline. We’re also seeing some weakness in the US dollar. The report from Barak Ravid cites The speaker of the Lebanese parliament, Nabih Berri. It says he told the Trump administration

Iran will submit its own amendments to the US draft deal text and is fully prepared for no agreement, a source told Tasnim, as Foreign Minister Araghchi confirmed talks remain ongoing. Summary: Sources: Tasnim News Agency (informed source), IRNA (Araghchi remarks) An informed source told Tasnim that Iran will submit its own amendments to the

The USD has moved higher on the back of headlines that Iran will stop exchanging messages with US in protest against “Zionist crimes” largely in Lebanon. The price of oil has moved higher and moved toward the 200 hour MA at $93.76. Getting above that MA would be the first break since May 21 and

Prior 52.7 Highest reading since May 2022 New orders 56.8 vs 54.1 prior Production 54.3 vs 53.4 prior Employment 48.6 vs 46.4 prior Prices paid 82.1 vs 84.6 prior New export orders 50.6 vs 47.9 prior — back in expansion This is a strong headline number and it’s the fifth straight month of expansion, but

China’s State Council has issued sweeping new rules broadening regulatory oversight of outbound investment, covering overseas deals involving Chinese technology, data and national security considerations. Taking effect July 1, the measures require authorisation for exports of restricted goods, technologies and related data, and ban indirect transfers through technical staff deployments or training arrangements. This article

Headlines: Iran chief negotiator continues to pinpoint violations of existing ceasefire agreement Iran navy claims that 15 vessels passed through Strait of Hormuz in the past 24 hours Back from the weekend and still no closer to a US-Iran deal US president Trump says to “sit back and relax, it will all work out well

House prices -0.6% vs -0.2% m/m expected Prior +0.4% House prices +1.7% vs +2.2% y/y expected Prior +3.0% The average price of a dwelling in the UK eased slightly in May to £278,024, as Nationwide records a price drop of 0.6% on the month in May. Housing sentiment was more resilient in April but it

I think that pretty much sets the tone of what we can expect this week. That being another week where we go back and forth on the same issues awaiting both sides to strike a compromise, just so that we can get on with the optics of a deal. Trump’s full tweet: “Iran really wants

ECB Executive Board member Schnabel said the bank can no longer look through Iran war inflation as price pressures spread beyond energy, signalling further rate hikes without specifying a ceiling Summary: Source: Isabel Schnabel, ECB Executive Board member Schnabel said the ECB can no longer overlook the inflationary impact of the Iran conflict as price

Iran is claiming a figure of 15 vessels transiting through the Strait of Hormuz in the past 24 hours, with those ships said to have obtained permission from Tehran to cross the waterway. Of the 15 vessels, the Iran navy is saying that it includes 4 oil tankers. Now, the issue here is that these

The People’s Bank of China is due to set the daily USD/CNY reference rate at around 0115 GMT (2115 US Eastern time), a fixing that remains one of the most closely watched signals in Asian foreign exchange markets. China operates a managed floating exchange rate system, under which the renminbi (yuan) is allowed to trade

Australia’s S&P Global Manufacturing PMI eased to 50.7 in May from 51.3 in April, with new orders falling at the steepest pace since October and selling price inflation hitting a 45-month high. Summary: The S&P Global Australia Manufacturing PMI fell to 50.7 in May from 51.3 in April, remaining above the 50.0 no-change threshold, per

It doesn’t feel like much of anything is being resolved at the moment in the Middle East. All the conditions for a deal have been laid out on the table for two weeks now but it seems like both the US and Iran still cannot meet in the middle. Iran chief negotiator Ghalibaf is out

The week begins with the release of manufacturing PMI data for the eurozone, the U.K., and the U.S. on Monday followed by the eurozone core CPI flash estimate y/y and the CPI estimate y/y the following day. Also on Tuesday, the U.S. will release its JOLTS job openings report. Wednesday will bring Australia’s GDP q/q

Barely much change from late Friday levels. I’ll be back with weekend news of note soon. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

As a reminder, the mood when we returned last week was that the deal was “imminent”. One week later, we’re still caught in the same negotiating position once again. The US and Iran are continuing exchanging military blows in trying to posture ahead of the supposed framework agreement or memorandum of understanding (MOU). However, the

The US Commerce Department has closed a loophole that may have allowed hundreds of thousands of advanced Nvidia and AMD AI chips to reach Chinese firms via overseas subsidiaries over the past year. Summary: The US Commerce Department issued guidance on Sunday enforcing licence requirements for advanced AI chips sold to entities headquartered in China,

Prior 54.5 More to come.. This article was written by Justin Low at investinglive.com.

The PBOC allows the yuan to fluctuate within a +/- 2% range, around this reference rate. More here. Injects 11bn yuan via 7-day reverse repos in open market operates today. Unchanged rate of 1.4%. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

Palantir stock trade idea: breakout confirmed, but the buy zone matters more than the headline move Key takeaways if you may be seeing the recent Palantir stock breakout and considering a buy PLTR has broken above its recent descending resistance line, improving the technical tone. The bigger question is not whether the breakout happened, but

Japan’s Q1 capital spending rose just 0.047% year on year, sharply missing the 4.0% forecast and slowing from 6.5% in Q4, with an analyst warning the data points to a downward revision to Q1 GDP. Data post earlier, though I’ve duplicated below if you prefer: Japan Capital Spending Q1: 0.0% y/y (expected 4.0%, prior 6.5%)

Japan’s S&P Global Manufacturing PMI eased to 54.5 in May from April’s 51-month high of 55.1, with input costs and selling prices rising at rates rarely seen in over 24 years of data. Summary: Source: S&P Global The headline Japan Manufacturing PMI fell to 54.5 in May from April’s 51-month high of 55.1, marking a

Kuwaiti air defenses are currently confronting hostile missile and drone attacks. The General Staff of the Army notes that if explosion sounds are heard, they result from the air defense systems intercepting the hostile attacks. – War is ongoing, Oil positive. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

Former Federal Reserve Chair Powell has stayed on at the Bank as one of the members of the Board of Governors. He said he’ll be keeping a low profile. I can’t find any details on the venue, topic etc. Maybe that’s all part of the low profile? I’ll keep an ear to the ground at

US Secretary of State Rubio spoke with Lebanon’s president and Israel’s PM Netanyahu in the past 48 hours to advance a ceasefire, but Washington says Hezbollah blocked progress on Tehran’s orders. Summary: Source: Axios Rubio spoke with Lebanese President Joseph Aoun and Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu within the past 48 hours to advance a new

Former Fed chair Powell, now a governor, warned at a Boston ceremony that any administration able to remove Fed officials over policy differences sets a precedent every future administration will follow. Summary: Source: Wall Street Journal, reporting by Nick Timiraos (gated) Powell accepted a political courage award from the Kennedy family in Boston on Sunday,

Reports of another likely ballistic missile interception near Ali Al Salem Airbase, Kuwait Japan Q1 capex growth stalls at near zero, raising risk of GDP revision lower ECB’s Schnabel says Iran war inflation too broad to look through, flags rate hikes China tightens outbound investment rules to curb technology and data transfers Rubio pushes Lebanon

Nasdaq futures technical analysis: NQ repairs from lower-value damage, but bulls still need acceptance above 30536 Key takeaways NQ JUN26 has repaired strongly from the May 28 lower-value damage, but the move is not yet a clean bullish takeover. The current prediction score is +2 / +10, with medium confidence. The key upside gate is

China’s RatingDog/S&P Global Manufacturing PMI eased to 51.8 in May from 52.2 in April, staying above 50 for a sixth straight month, as input price inflation eased for the first time in six months. Over the weekend we had the official PMIs: China’s official manufacturing PMI slipped to 50.0 in May from 50.3, matching forecasts,

UK business confidence remains deeply negative, CBI and IoD surveys show, with output expectations well below pre-Iran-war levels and Middle East tensions adding fresh cost pressure on firms. Summary: Sources: Confederation of British Industry (CBI), Institute of Directors (IoD), Reuters CBI output expectations balance edged up to -24 in May from -25 in April, remaining

Flat capex in Q1 the headline data point, Disappointing. Japan Capital Spending Ex Software Q1: -1.4% y/y expected 5.4%, prior 7.3% Japan Company Sales Q1: 1.1% y/y prior 0.7% Japan Company Profits Q1: 14.6% y/y expected 5.3%, prior 4.7% I’ll have more to come on this separately, details etc. This article was written by Eamonn

US Central Command has quietly guided around 70 commercial ships through the Strait of Hormuz over three weeks, averaging three daily, with vessels running dark to avoid Iranian detection. Summary: US Central Command has coordinated passage for approximately 70 commercial vessels through the Strait of Hormuz over the past three weeks, with ships turning off

Oil traders are juggling headlines, they are pretty accustomed to it! Iran’s president resigns, says IRGC seized control and cut him out of decisions Iran’s Government Information Council says Pezeshkian is actively running the country and the story is foreign propaganda designed to sow discord. Iran International published it. Iranian state media denied it. This

Iran’s parliament security spokesman says no nuclear commitments have been made to the US, as the foreign minister confirms talks are ongoing but urges patience over premature judgements. Summary: Iran’s parliamentary national security committee spokesman Ebrahim Rezaei said on Sunday that Iran has made no nuclear commitments to the United States, according to state media

I saw an interesting discussion in one of the equity investing and trading groups, and I thought it was worth turning into a broader educational note. The question was simple, but very important: If you are already holding DELL stock at a profit, is it better to sell, or should you move your stop higher

MON: Global Manufacturing Final PMIs (May), South Korean Balance of Trade (May), German Retail Sales (Apr), Swiss Retail Sales (Apr), GDP (Q1), EZ Unemployment Rate (Apr), US ISM Manufacturing (May) TUE: NBP Policy Announcement (Jun), South Korean CPI (May), EZ HICP (May), JOLTs Job Openings (Apr), RCM/TIPP Economic Optimism, New Zealand Export/Import Prices (Q1) WED:

Trump did not reach a decision on any new deal with Iran after Situation Room meeting How have interest rate expectations changed after this week’s event? Iran’s Baghaei: No agreement has been finalised with the United States so far Fed’s Daly says she doesn’t see mass unemployment or displacement from AI Blockade lift announcement by

Rate hikes by year-end RBNZ: 75 bps (79% probability of rate hike at the next meeting) ECB: 52 bps (89% probability of rate hike at the next meeting) BoJ: 42 bps (71% probability of rate hike at the next meeting) BoE: 32 bps (94% probability of no change at the next meeting) BoC: 28 bps

On Iran blockade says anything that is taken off will be taken off slowly There are 3 scenarios on Iran: deal, no deal, or kinetic action There’s more we can do on Iran if we have to See real wage growth to resume, on the other side of the war 100% approve of the Fed

Full report here Trump did not reach a final decision on a Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) with Iran during a nearly two-hour meeting in the White House Situation Room, according to a senior administration official familiar with the deliberations. The meeting came after Trump publicly suggested that a major breakthrough with Tehran could be imminent,

Al Jazeera reporter, Ali Hashem, posted on X: “A highly informed source tells me that Trump’s post on the “Truth Social” platform regarding lifting the siege was actually the first condition before moving on to the rest of the agreement steps. And according to the source, Tehran insisted on an official and public announcement first.

Sector Overview Today’s stock market heatmap reveals a divergent performance across sectors, with notable strength in technology and pronounced weakness in communication services. 📈 Technology: Leading the charge, the technology sector showcases robust figures. Nvidia (NVDA) gains 0.81%, Micron Technology (MU) soars by a significant 5.01%, and Oracle (ORCL) impresses with a 6.13% rise. Microsoft

Fed can look through energy shock if it stays credible on monetary policy Still early to gauge Middle East war’s impact on the economy Reacting to temporary energy shock could weigh down economy I’m optimistic the end of the war will bring easing energy prices Current “moderately restrictive” policy is aimed at aiding jobs and

Prior was -0.6% GDP +0.0% q/q vs -0.2% prior March GDP -0.1% vs +0.0% expected Prior +0.2% Full report here Real gross domestic product was unchanged in the first quarter of 2026, after declining 0.2% in the fourth quarter of 2025. Higher imports of goods, particularly gold, were offset by accumulations of business inventories. Decreased

The yen traded near 159.60 per dollar Thursday as markets awaited official MOF intervention data due at 1900 JST, with Bloomberg analysis suggesting up to ¥10 trillion was deployed to defend the currency in late April. 1000 GMT / 0600 US Eastern time Summary: The yen was trading around 159.25 per dollar in Tokyo Friday,

Dell, AI spending, and the trillion-dollar question investors should understand Dell Technologies just gave investors a live example of what the AI infrastructure boom looks like in financial statements. In its Q1 FY27 results, Dell was not rewarded simply because it sold more PCs or delivered a normal earnings beat. The stock exploded because investors

Prior was +1.3% For background, the Monthly Wholesale Trade Survey , conducted by the U.S. Census Bureau, is one of the government’s key economic indicators, tracking sales, end-of-month inventories, and inventories-to-sales ratios for merchant wholesalers across the country. The survey excludes manufacturers’ sales branches and offices, as well as wholesale electronic markets, agents, and brokers.

Dell Federal Systems has secured a five-year, $9.7 billion Pentagon software purchasing agreement covering Microsoft licences and cloud subscriptions, sending Dell shares up 30%+ as Trump stock disclosures drew fresh attention Summary: Dell Federal Systems received a firm-fixed-price blanket purchase agreement under the Defense Department’s Enterprise Software Initiative, valued at approximately $9.7 billion over five

S&P 500 +0.44% Nasdaq Composite +0.58% The latest catalyst for the push into new all-time highs was yesterday’s Axios report saying that US and Iranian negotiators have reached an agreement on a 60-day memorandum of understanding to extend the ceasefire and launch negotiations on Iran’s nuclear program, but President Trump has yet to give his

Unemployment change -12k vs 10k expected Prior 20k Unemployment rate 6.3% vs 6.4% expected Prior 6.4% The jobless figure shows a drop of 12,000 and that brings the overall unadjusted number of unemployed persons to 2.95 million. That being said, this likely should be a one-off and doesn’t excuse the fact that the labour market

Corporate restructuring frequently involves sweeping operational shifts. X Open Hub takes a different approach, transitioning to the name ‘XTB Institutional.’ The rebranding serves a specific function: it aligns the B2B liquidity provider directly with the parent company. A clear connection to XTB Group provides immediate recognition regarding financial backing and corporate governance. The underlying business

MUFG analysts warn the dollar could strengthen further if US-Iran talks collapse, with energy-driven inflation risks potentially pushing Fed officials toward a more hawkish stance and lifting US yields. – The US dollar faces renewed upward pressure if Washington and Tehran fail to finalise a ceasefire extension, MUFG Bank analysts warned, arguing that the unresolved

Full report here The Trump administration is preparing a proposal that would significantly tighten automotive sourcing requirements under the US-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA), potentially requiring that half of all components and materials used in a vehicle originate from the United States in order to qualify for the trade pact’s preferential tariff treatment, according to a report

Prior +2.9% HICP +2.7% vs +2.8% y/y expected Prior +2.9% Core CPI Y/Y +2.5% vs +2.3% prior The German states inflation readings released earlier in the day were much lower than the prior month, so a notable miss on the national measure was expected. The German Core CPI Y/Y rose to 2.5% from 2.3% prior.

Headlines: Deal or no deal? Markets continue to eye US-Iran headlines ahead of the weekend Japan spent ¥11.7 trillion on foreign exchange interventions in the past month Japan chief cabinet secretary says extremely concerned about speculative FX moves Fed policymaker Schmid: My primary concern is inflation, which is too hot BOE governor Bailey: We have

Inflation pressures are weighing on the economy Firms are having a hard time planning for the future Monetary policy is appropriately positioned at mildly restrictive levels Inflation is too high, and was too high even before the war started The US is on track to continue modest growth Consumers are spending but at a slower

Investor: “AI, should I go long or short on Apple?” AI: “Hold on, querying a secondary AI.” Investor: “Wait, where does that AI get its data?” AI: “From an open-source model.” Investor: “And what is the open-source model trained on?” AI: “The latest forecasts from a top Wall Street analyst.” Investor: “And what is the

Iran must agree that they will never have a Nuclear Weapon or Bomb The Hormuz Strait must be immediately open, no tolls, for unrestricted shipping traffic, in both directions All water mines, if any, will be terminated The US naval blockade will now be lifted Uranium will be unearthed by the US in coordination with

Prior +2.7% HICP +3.3% vs +3.2% y/y expected Prior +2.8% More to come.. This article was written by Justin Low at investinglive.com.

That’s a whopping figure as it is roughly equivalent to $73.4 billion in dollar terms. When compared with the previous intervention moves in 2022 and 2024, the size of this one beats out any of the singular period during those years. The total spent on interventions in 2024 is still more, with that being roughly

The People’s Bank of China is due to set the daily USD/CNY reference rate at around 0115 GMT (2115 US Eastern time), a fixing that remains one of the most closely watched signals in Asian foreign exchange markets. China operates a managed floating exchange rate system, under which the renminbi (yuan) is allowed to trade

We gain concessions not with talks, but with missiles We have no trust in guarantees or words Only actions are the measure No action will be taken before the other side acts The winner of any agreement is the one who is better prepared for war from the day after Iran’s chief negotiator and parliament

Here are all the state readings released around the same time: Bavaria CPI +% vs +2.9% y/y prior Saxony CPI +2.7% vs +3.0% y/y prior North Rhine Westphalia CPI +% vs +2.7% y/y prior Baden Wuerttemberg CPI +2.4% vs +2.6% y/y prior More to come.. This article was written by Justin Low at investinglive.com.

Prior was -$87.45 billion The international trade deficit was $82.4 billion in April, down $2.9 billion from $85.3 billion in March. Exports of goods for April were $219.7 billion, $8.5 billion more than March exports. Imports of goods for April were $302.1 billion, $5.6 billion more than March imports. This article was written by Giuseppe

Prior +3.6% More to come.. This article was written by Justin Low at investinglive.com.

RBNZ Governor Anna Breman said the OCR is likely to increase sooner and by more than previously signalled, citing Middle East conflict-driven inflation, weaker growth and rising input costs across New Zealand and its trading partners. Summary: RBNZ Governor Anna Breman said the global economic backdrop remains uncertain, with supply chain disruptions and higher input

We had CPI data earlier, along with jobs. I’ve included those results in the screenshot for retail and industry data ICYMI: More on the inflation data here: Tokyo core CPI misses forecasts in May, complicating case for BOJ June rate hike This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

There are just a couple of expiries to take note of on the day, as highlighted in bold below. They are for EUR/USD at the 1.1600 and 1.1650 levels. The expiries don’t tie to any technical significance but once again could act as a bit of a magnet and/or keep a lid on price action

Don’t want to comment on forex levels, intervention But is extremely concerned about speculative moves The stance by the government has always been to take appropriate action on forex matters A bit of a verbal warning shot there as Tokyo officials continue to be alarmed by USD/JPY lingering above 159.00 but still not yet wanting

My primary concern is inflation, which is too hot and has been above target for too long Now is not the time to let down our guard US economy is less exposed to energy shock relative to the past But I would place little shock in assuming that recent inflation surge is transitory Fed must

A tweet from Guy Elster, Walla Foreign Correspondent says: The full opening of the Straits of Hormuz is a prerequisite (a redline) of any deal with Iran according to comments from White House officials. So this does not give a positive feeling. Although there were reports of a memorandum of understanding, the president had not

Did have a call with Imans Oil prices will be lower than pre-conflict A 2000 ships are waiting to come out of the gulf, and the oil market is set to be very well supplied. Pres. Trump has said there are several redlines and the Strait of Hormuz has to be free and open. Nothing

We have to monitor the situation in the Middle East Need to see how it affects the UK economy and inflation very closely, and adjust policy as required In having taken expected rate cuts off the table for now, we have already tightened policy considerably That is in response to the shock relative to what

The core-core is excluding food and energy. its risen at its slowest rate since September 2024 This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

BOE Governor Andrew Bailey speaks in Reykjavik Friday at 0910 GMT, followed by hawk Catherine Mann in Dubrovnik Saturday at 0940 GMT and Megan Greene on stablecoins Sunday at 1230 GMT. Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey takes the podium in Reykjavik on Friday morning at 0910 GMT (0510 US Eastern) for a speech at

ANZ-Roy Morgan NZ Consumer Confidence rose 6 points to 86.5 in May, partially recovering from April lows, though the index remains 21 points below its January peak amid petrol price pressures and war-driven uncertainty. Summary: ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence rose 6 points in May to 86.5, but remains 21 points below its January peak, per

ETH analysis today: Bulls defend 1968-1973, but 2033-2036 remains the key confirmation zone ETH JUN26 futures are showing a short-term bullish repair after sellers failed to extend below the 1968-1973 support floor. The current score is +3.5 / +10, or roughly +3 to +4 for practical use, but the repair remains contested until ETH can

ANZ New Zealand Business Confidence rose 21 points to +10 in May but remained well below pre-conflict levels, with cost expectations near record highs and retail and construction activity still contracting. Before you go on, the bigger news ICYMI: RBNZ’s Breman signals faster and larger rate hikes than previously flagged Summary: ANZ-Roy Morgan Business Confidence

Dollar faces renewed strength if US-Iran talks fail, MUFG warns Bank of England Bailey, Mann and Greene due to speak at conferences: rates, crypto NZ business confidence bounces in May but Middle East cost squeeze persists RBNZ’s Breman signals faster and larger rate hikes than previously flagged PBOC sets USD/ CNY reference rate for today

Tokyo core CPI rose 1.3% y/y in May, missing the 1.5% forecast and extending a six-month slowdown, as fuel and education subsidies offset rising import costs, complicating the BOJ’s case for a June rate hike. Summary: Tokyo core CPI, excluding fresh food, rose 1.3% y/y in May, below the 1.5% forecast and April’s 1.5%, marking

RBNZ Assistant Governor Karen Silk said inflation pressures are building in the near term and the bias is toward rate increases at coming meetings, adding the bank can act without waiting for quarterly CPI data. Summary: RBNZ Assistant Governor Karen Silk said she did not think interest rates needed to increase yet but that near-term

Japanese Finance Minister Katayama said decisive action can be taken against yen volatility, declining to confirm intervention history, as the MOF prepares to release intervention data covering late April to May 27 at 1900 JST: 1000 GMT 0600 US Eastern time Summary: Finance Minister Katayama said at a regular press conference that decisive action can

Dell Technologies just reported a very strong first quarter, and the main reason the market reacted so aggressively is simple: Dell is no longer being valued only like a traditional PC and enterprise hardware company. It is increasingly being priced as a major AI infrastructure supplier. The headline numbers were unusually strong. Dell reported record

Crude oil is closing modestly higher by $0.20 at $88.90, but the final price does not reflect the volatility seen throughout the trading day. Prices traded as high as $92.52 before reversing sharply lower and eventually finding support near session lows at $87.11. That wide trading range highlights the uncertainty currently driving the oil market

The PBOC allows the yuan to fluctuate within a +/- 2% range, around this reference rate. More here. Injects 123bn yuan via 7-day reverse repos in open market operates today. Unchanged rate of 1.4%. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

A packed data agenda ahead for the day here in Asia-Pacific. Tokyo inflation data is due. Tokyo consumer prices are expected to show little movement in May compared with April, with key inflation measures remaining at or below the Bank of Japan’s 2% target, as you can see in the screenshot. The capital’s CPI is

US Vice President JD Vance said Thursday that President Trump has not yet decided whether to endorse a tentative memorandum of understanding with Iran, and that negotiations are continuing over unresolved language in the draft agreement. Speaking to reporters at Joint Base Andrews, Vance said the timing and outcome of any presidential sign-off remained uncertain,

US officials say there have been no US aircraft shot down near Iran’s Bushehr, contradicting Iranian claims Earlier: Iran state TV says they destroyed a US aircraft. No US comment at this stage. Wrap up here: Recap: US-Iran ceasefire extension agreed but unconfirmed, markets whipsaw on war signals This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan

The major US stock indices are closing higher with all major indices have record levels. The largest gainer was the NASDAQ index which rose by 0.91% or 242.74 points to 26917.4 The S&P index rose by 42.25 points or 0.58% at 7563.62. The Dow industrial average rose by 24.98 points after being negative for most

Trump has been saying he has won since the first few days of his war, 3 months ago. At least his message is consistent! Speaking in a Fox interview. Meanwhile, the war drags on, the latest: Reports that Iran targeted 4 American ships that attempted to cross the Straits of Hormuz This article was written

Crypto flushed, then reversed up, but crypto bulls still need stronger order-flow confirmation Bitcoin and Ethereum futures have repaired meaningfully from weaker intraday structure, but this is not yet a confirmed bullish reversal. BTC needs acceptance above 74,000, while ETH needs acceptance above 2,030-2,035. Until both assets show stronger positive delta and better follow-through, the

FUNDAMENTAL OVERVIEW Gold fell to a new two-month low this week as the lack of tangible progress on the US-Iran side and the hawkish Fed risks continue to weigh on the precious metal. Despite the expectations for an imminent deal and the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, we still haven’t got anything officially. There’s

Bond markets are signaling a resilient economy and higher expected inflation. Most of the recent move higher in bond yields reflects a higher expected neutral rate. Wanted to remove the Fed’s “easing bias.” Reducing the banking system’s demand for reserves would provide a smoother path toward a smaller Fed balance sheet than shrinking reserve supply.

The AUDUSD and NZDUSD are leading the move lower in the US dollar today as improving risk sentiment weighs on the greenback. Reports suggesting that the U.S. and Iran are nearing a memorandum of understanding on a cease-fire have helped push crude oil back lower, with WTI now down around $0.35 to $88.32. Treasury yields

Prior was 209K (revised to 210K) Continuing claims 1786K vs 1780K expected Prior was 1782K (revised to 1771K) The data has been pointing to a resilient and even strengthening US labour market. Many other US jobs reports have been telling the same thing, which prompted the Fed to switch their focus from the employment mandate

There aren’t any major expiries to take note of on the day, with the full list seen below. As things stand, US-Iran headlines will continue to be the biggest driver of trading sentiment as we look to close out the week in the next two days. Nothing else really matters at this point. So far,

High Yield 4.290% WI level at the time of the auction 4.291% Tail -0.1 basis points Bid to cover 2.52X which is near the six month average of 2.48X Directs 11.2% much lower than the average of 27.5% Indirects 78.39% much higher than the average of 61.2% Dealers 10.42%. Lower than the average of 11.3%

The USDCAD has moved lower after trading to its highest level since April 13. The pair peaked at 1.3869 on two separate occasions during the Asian and early European sessions, with the rally stalling right within a key swing area between 1.3868 and 1.3877. That area has attracted willing sellers and could prove to be

New York Fed president Williams is speaking: higher productivity rates can raise real interest rates. Shifts in productivity are hard to spot in real time. Williams does not comment on near term policy outlook This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com.

The weekly EIA inventory data shows: crude oil inventories -3.327 million versus -4.143 million estimate distillates -2.107 million versus -1.024 million estimate. Gasoline -2.572 million versus -2.412 million estimate. Cushing -2.794 million versus -1.604 million last week refinery utilization 2.9% versus 0.7% The private data released late yesterday showed: Crude oil is trading up $1.15

The Atlanta Fed GDPN estimate for Q2 growth comes in at 3.8% In their own words: The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the second quarter of 2026 is 3.8 percent on May 28, down from 4.3 percent on May 21. After this morning’s releases from the US Census

There are increasing reports suggesting progress toward a cease-fire agreement between the U.S. and Iran. According to multiple sources, the deal would be implemented in two phases, beginning with the signing of a memorandum of understanding (MOU). Reports indicate that Pakistan is expected to witness the signing ceremony. Reuters is reporting that negotiators have reached

As a memorandum of understanding is said to be close but not done as Iran’s supreme leader Khomenei and Pres. Trump have not approved, the markets are still hopeful. US stocks have moved higher led by the NASDAQ index which is up 0.52%. The S&P index is up 0.43%. The Dow industrial average is up

The headlines cite Iran’s deputy secretary to the national security council in saying that “all of Iran’s frozen assets must be released and returned without conditions”. Adding that they are “seeking the release of all funds held by the US and this is the legal right of Iran”. As mentioned here, this is one of

Baseline Outlook is that inflation will take longer to come back down to target. Sees risk that inflation may not converge to target as we would like. There is a scenario where economy might require a rate increase. If we don’t see disinflation in the next one – two quarters that would concern me. Hi

Japanese government bond yields rose Thursday after reports the ruling LDP plans to issue bridging bonds to fund investment, reviving fiscal concerns alongside growing speculation of a BOJ rate hike in June. Summary: The benchmark 10-year JGB yield rose 3 basis points to 2.72%, nearly reversing the previous session’s decline, while the five-year yield rose

More from NY Fed Pres. Williams: We have a solid US economy Characterizes the labor market as doing well says that AI will have lasting impact on productivity Calls US dynamism as a reason behind the rising productivity Some of the US productivity rise predates the rise of AI. Hit to inflation likely to peak

Treasury Secretary Bessentt is announcing some economic sanctions against Iran in what he terms the economic fury campaign against the Iranians. Only a satisfactory outcome in negotiations will and Iran’s downward spiral economically . The U.S. Treasury will sanction Iran’s Persian Gulf Strait Authority We also shut down Iranian airlines access to landing spots, refueling,

Gold slide today as fire exchanged around Hormuz and in the norther Guld. USD higher. Oil up US-Iran Hormuz confrontation produced directly contradictory official accounts from both sides US struck Bandar Abbas ground control station; Iran denies any meaningful damage Iran has launched missiles and drones against Kuwait in the past hour Tehran’s four core

Credit Agricole notes that their month-end rebalancing model is pointing to mild dollar selling as we look to wrap up the month of May. “Global equity markets were broadly firmer in May. In FX, the USD has outperformed across the board on the month. The moves in the equity markets, when adjusted for market capitalisation

FUNDAMENTAL OVERVIEW USD: The US dollar has been mostly supported this week amid heightened tensions in the Strait of Hormuz as US and Iran continue to exchange strikes. Despite the expectations for an imminent deal and the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, we still haven’t got anything officially. There’s just been lots of noise

Oil up a little on the news: Fars News Agency report three explosions east of Bandar Abbas Iranian air defense systems activated United States has carried out a defense operation in Bandar Abbas, Iran, official tells Faytuks Network, adding that “this does not affect the ceasefire” This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

Upside risks to inflation and downside risks to growth had intensified The economy had already been weakening, held back by persistent uncertainty Such weakness could persist well beyond the end of the conflict The energy price shock and associated supply disruption posed a dilemma for monetary policy So far, there was little evidence that the

The US and Iran have offered directly contradictory accounts of a Hormuz confrontation, with Washington describing Iranian drone attacks and Iran saying it stopped a US tanker running without radar. Summary: Sources: US official via Newsmax; Iranian military source via Tasnim News Agency A US official confirmed that four Iranian one-way attack drones were intercepted

Prior was +0.8% (revised to +1.3%) Durable goods orders ex-transport +1.1% vs +0.5% expected Prior ex-transport +0.9% (revised to +1.1%) Durable goods ex-defense +8.1% vs -0.3% prior Non-defense capital goods ex-air -1.1% vs +0.4% expected Prior +3.4% (+3.9%) New orders for manufactured durable goods in April, up two consecutive months, increased $25.5 billion or 7.9

Via oilprice.com: Expectations I had seen: Crude expected -4.4mln Distillates expected -2.0mln Gasolineexpected -2.9mln This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

As the North American session begins, the US dollar is mostly higher versus the major currency pairs (but off the highs). In the video above, I take a look at the three major currency pairs – the EURUSD, USDJPY and GBPUSD – from a technical perspective ahead of the PCE, durable goods, initial jobless claims

AUD/NZD experiences the largest single-day decline since 2022 on divergent drivers US sells 5-year notes at 4.182% vs 4.181% WI Trump: We’re not there yet on Iran deal, not satisfied with it Trump says Iran would not get sanctions relief in exchange for giving up enriched uranium ECB’s de Guindos says current shock is causing

Credit Agricole notes that with USD/JPY holding above the 159.00 level, the currency pair is keeping in a region that might incur the wrath of Japan’s ministry of finance once again. That fits more or less with how markets are feeling too, as price action has been a little more cautious as of late. Traders

Headlines: Iran says continues US strikes are violations of the ceasefire Iran maintains position that all frozen assets must be released without conditions Gold continues to slide amid lack of US-Iran breakthrough and hawkish Fed risks Mild dollar selling expected going into month-end fix – Credit Agricole ECB policymaker Lane says second-round effects would persist

RBNZ Governor Breman says the committee sees inflationary pressures ahead and agrees the cash rate needs to move higher, a day after the bank held its policy rate steady. Summary: Source: RBNZ Governor Anna Breman, comments 27 May 2026 Breman said the RBNZ committee sees inflationary pressures continuing going forward The committee is in agreement

Prior month YoY Core PCE 3.2%, headline 3.5% Core PCE YoY 3.3% vs 3.3 est. Core PCE MoM 0.2% vs 0.3% est Headline PCE YoY 3.8% vs 3.8% est Headline PCE MoM 0.4% vs 0.5% est. PCE Ex Food, energy and housing for April 0.2% vs 0.3% last month PCE services. Ex Energy and housing

There’s a lot of back and forth going on but ultimately, the bottom line is that the US and Iran have not yet agreed to a memorandum of understanding. The “deal to end the conflict” was supposed to be “imminent” since the weekend. But fast forward now to Thursday, and we’re yet to see any

Iran’s parliament security chief says Tehran will not retreat from its four red lines: uranium enrichment rights, possession of enriched material, authority over the Strait of Hormuz, and sanctions removal. Summary: Iran’s top parliamentary security official said Tehran will not be moved from its four red lines by US rhetoric The four positions are: the

Fed Governor Cook says she is closely watching inflation expectations and oil prices, warning that crude moving in the wrong direction would be problematic, while also monitoring downside risks to the labor market. Summary: Source: Federal Reserve Governor Lisa Cook, follow-up comments, 27 May 2026 Cook said she is very attuned to inflation expectations as

Key takeaways A Google software engineer, Michele Spagnuolo, has been charged by U.S. prosecutors with commodities fraud, wire fraud, and money laundering. Prosecutors allege he used confidential Google “Year in Search” data to win about $1.2 million on Polymarket. The case is important because it shows that insider trading concerns do not stop at the

Morgan Stanley’s Global Investment Committee set a one-year S&P 500 target of 8,300 but warned the rally is narrow, household finances are under strain, and rising long-term rates pose a growing risk. Earlier: ICYMI – Goldman Sachs lifts S&P 500 target to 8,000 on AI-fuelled earnings surge Summary: Source: Morgan Stanley Global Investment Committee note,

Google engineer Polymarket insider trading case: What young traders should learn Gold has been slammed on renewed hostilities in the Gulf Fed’s Goolsbee warns AI hype and oil shock are combining to push rates higher Kuwait air defenses responding to hostile missile and drone attacks New Zealand budget deficit narrows but growth downgrade and inflation

ECB Chief Economist Philip Lane warned that inflationary pressures from the energy shock will persist even if we see a reversal. Lane highlighted that while the initial shock is fading, the resulting adjustments in wages and price-setting behavior continue to weigh on the economy. He noted that the impact of high energy costs is not

The latest truth tweet from Trump, never mind the war! I left the date there at the bottom to confuse the flat earthers on the other side of the international date line. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

Economic confidence 93.5 vs 92.8 expected Prior 93.0; revised to 93.2 The indicator continues to score below its long-term average of 100, as headwinds from the Middle East conflict continue to linger. Looking at the details, industrial confidence (-8.0) dipped further on the month as the bounce was mostly helped by a minor rebound in

The PBOC allows the yuan to fluctuate within a +/- 2% range, around this reference rate. More here. Injects 101.3bn yuan via 7-day reverse repos in open market operates today. Unchanged rate of 1.4%. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

Minneapolis Fed President Kashkari says inflation is much too high and remains his top priority, warning that unanchored expectations could force more aggressive action, with energy and fertilizer costs key drivers Summary: Source: Minneapolis Federal Reserve President Neel Kashkari, speaking to CNBC at the Bank of Japan-IMES Conference, 27 May 2026 Kashkari said inflation remains

The Bank of Korea held its benchmark rate at 2.50% but two board members dissented in favour of an immediate hike, and the dot plot showed 10 of 21 projections at 3.00% within six months. Governor Shin Hyun Song press conference scheduled 0210 GMT Summary: Source: Bank of Korea monetary policy decision and dot plot,

Fed Vice Chair Jefferson says monetary policy cannot offset first-round energy price effects but must prevent them converting into second-round inflation, with the resilient labor market keeping the focus firmly on the 2% target. Summary: Source: Federal Reserve Vice Chair Philip Jefferson, Bank of Japan-IMES Conference, Tokyo, 27 May 2026 Jefferson said energy shocks are

There were earlier exchanges between Iran and the US around Hormuz: US and Iran offer clashing accounts of fresh Hormuz confrontation near Bandar Abbas Iran on the attack again, this time against a northern gulf neighbour, Kuwait. Oil climbing again. At its session highs on this. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

ECB Chief Economist Lane warned that inflation from the Iran conflict could persist well beyond any resolution, citing second-round effects, supply chain repositioning, and non-linear price dynamics. Summary: Source: ECB Chief Economist Philip Lane, speaking at the Bank of Japan-IMES Conference in Tokyo, 27 May 2026 Lane said second-round inflation effects from the energy shock

Bitcoin futures analysis today: BTC defends 74,400, but bearish 4h structure still matters Last updated: 03:09, Thursday, 28 May 2026 (CEST), Time in Berlin Key takeaways for Bitcoin futures traders BTC JUN26 is trading in a short-term decision zone near 74,400-74,650. The broader 4h structure remains bearish after a failed bullish repair from the 77,000+

Chicago Fed President Goolsbee warned that anticipated AI productivity gains are inflationary and that an oil shock makes the problem worse, saying the bigger the AI hype, the more rates may need to rise. Summary: Source: Chicago Federal Reserve President Austan Goolsbee, remarks prepared for the Bank of Japan conference and interview with CNBC, 27

The pair looks to have reached an inflection point that is leading to a deeper pullback from its recent 13-year high. The RBNZ held its Official Cash Rate steady at 2.25% today but delivered a hawkish surprise. The central bank revealed that its decision was split 3-3, forcing a casting vote, and explicitly warned that

Back in December, Jan Hatzius, chief economist at Goldman Sachs, said the federal funds rate could fall to 3 to 3.25% by year-end, while BlackRock expected a pause at the start of the year and, with a new Fed Chair in place, a shift toward lower rates. Fast forward to the end of May, and

Full article here During a phone call with PBS News, Trump explicitly stated that Iran would not receive sanctions relief in exchange for giving up its highly enriched uranium. This comes amid ongoing efforts between the US and Iran to end three months of conflict and reach an agreement on a memorandum of understanding. On

Full report here De Guindos characterized the current situation as a global supply shock that will ultimately lead to a combination of lower economic growth and higher inflation. He said that while the overall net impact is inflationary, the resulting economic slowdown is already weakening aggregate demand, as seen in declining sentiment indicators and services

Sector Overview Today’s market shows a contrast between sectors as technology stocks see a notable decline, while healthcare and consumer cyclicals lead with strong performances. The semiconductor space is under pressure, evident by Nvidia (NVDA) dropping 2.24% and Intel (INTC) falling 4.30%. In contrast, consumer cyclicals such as Amazon (AMZN) enjoy a rise of 1.92%,

Reserve Bank of New Zealand Governor Breman press conference. more to come This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

With new Fed Chair Kevin Warsh settling into his office for his first week on the job, Neel Kashkari told Nikkei that the Fed could ultimately embark on a series of rate hikes if inflation pressures tied to the turmoil in the Middle East continue to build. If the current storyline persists — with oil

Prior was 3.955% Bid to cover at 2.34 vs 2.33 prior Primary Dealers 12.8% Direct 12.3% Indirect 74.9% A negligible tail of 0.1 bps. Treasury yields have been falling steadily since the May 19 highs. The optimism regarding a US-Iran deal helped ease inflation concerns as it also contributed to lower oil prices. Nevertheless, an

Just the data in this post. I’ll have more to come on this separately, details etc. AUD is down on the results. Headline and m/m core lower than expected. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

The People’s Bank of China is due to set the daily USD/CNY reference rate at around 0115 GMT (2115 US Eastern time), a fixing that remains one of the most closely watched signals in Asian foreign exchange markets. China operates a managed floating exchange rate system, under which the renminbi (yuan) is allowed to trade

The Official White House Rapid Response account on X has indirectly denied the Iran’s state TV MoU draft reported earlier in the session. The initial market gains have been erased anyway as Iran’s state TV also added that no agreement has been reached yet, so all in all we are still waiting for something concrete.

The PBOC allows the yuan to fluctuate within a +/- 2% range, around this reference rate. more to come This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

Prior was +3 Services index +14 vs +9 prior Manufacturing shipments +16 vs -2 prior Fifth District manufacturing activity improved in May, according to the most recent survey from the Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond. The future indexes for shipments and new orders increased further into positive territory. The expectations index for employment rose notably

We’re not there yet on an Iran deal. We’re not satisfied with it. Maybe we go back and finish it, maybe we don’t. Iran is negotiating on fumes. Iran can’t have a nuclear weapon. Rubio’s comments: Trump preference is to negotiate with Iran. I think there’s been progress towards a deal. We will see over

Elon Musk has discussed combining SpaceX and Tesla with colleagues, CNBC reports, as SpaceX prepares its Nasdaq debut with a $1.25 trillion private market valuation. Summary: Source: CNBC, citing people familiar with the matter; SpaceX IPO prospectus Musk has discussed folding SpaceX and Tesla together with colleagues, according to sources; Tesla employees say the prospect

Despite some escalation in military actions in the past day, markets are still holding out hope that we will see a US-Iran “deal” come forth this week. The US military conducted what it said was “self defense” strikes against Iran, with Tehran lambasting that as to saying it was a violation to the April ceasefire

The nomination stage is now open for the UF AWARDS GLOBAL 2026. If your brand deserves to stand among the industry’s leading Fintech, financial services providers and brokers, this is your chance. The awards recognise the B2B and B2C brands, companies and firms which propel the industry forward through innovation, dedication and reliability. Past winners

S&P 500 +0.09% Nasdaq Composite +0.14% Dow Jones +0.20% The major US stock indices opened higher today as the US-Iran deal optimism continues to be a tailwind for risk assets. Earlier in the session, Iran’s state TV said that it has a draft of the initial unofficial framework for the Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) with

A senior BOJ official told parliament that Japanese financial conditions remain loose despite rising yields, with negative real rates and strong corporate profits keeping the case for further normalisation intact. Summary: Sources: BOJ Monetary Affairs Department Director-General Akio Okuno, parliamentary testimony, May 27; BOJ Governor Kazuo Ueda, opening remarks at the 2026 BOJ-IMES Conference, May

The RBNZ is expected to hold its OCR at 2.25% at today’s Monetary Policy Statement but deliver a hawkish forecast update, with the terminal rate seen rising to around 3.2% as Iran war energy costs threaten to push inflation above 4%. Summary: Source: Westpac Research RBNZ preview note The RBNZ is expected to hold the

For much of this conflict, gold tends to move in tandem with the beat of risk trades. But so far this week, it has been anything but that. While broader markets are feeling more optimistic on the US-Iran situation, gold and silver have struggled to stay afloat instead. And with the drop we’re seeing today,

The session started with a more tepid mood but we’re seeing a more risk-on tilt start to develop again now. European stocks are holding modest gains since the open while US futures continue to push up after the record closes in the S&P 500 and Nasdaq yesterday. Of note, S&P 500 futures are up 0.3%

For a few days, the talk of the town is an imminent “deal” between the US and Iran. One that is labelled as a “deal to put an end to the conflict”. While that sounds nice on paper, let’s once again be reminded of what this actually means. A quick summary: This deal represents a

The RBNZ held its OCR at 2.25% today by the governor’s casting vote after a 3-3 committee split, signalling rates will need to rise sooner and by more than expected as inflation heads for 4.3%. Summary: Source: RBNZ Monetary Policy Statement and minutes, May 27, 2026 The MPC voted 3-3 on whether to hold or

The S&P closed at a record level surpassing the high on May 14 at 7501.25. The index is closing at 7519.08 up 45.59 or 0.61% The Nasdaq index is also closing at a new record, stretching above it’s highest close at 26635.22. The index is closing at 26656.18, up 312.21 or 1.19% The Dow closed

It’s a packed agenda today. Bank of Japan Governor Ueda is speaking. Yesterday we heard from Deputy Governor Himino. Himino confirmed the BOJ intends to continue raising its policy rate and adjusting the degree of monetary accommodation in line with economic activity, prices and financial conditions He said the BOJ will consider the timing and

ADDED – details here: NZD jumps – RBNZ holds OCR at 2.25% by casting vote as committee splits 3-3 on rate hike —- Reserve Bank of New Zealand Governor Breman press conference will follow at 0300 GMT / 2300 US Eastern time Background to today: RBNZ expected to hold today but hawkish forecasts to signal

Nasdaq futures hold bullish structure, but cooling, as AI IPO frenzy of last week added another Wall Street risk-on narrative. Today we have a new “deal with Iran” narrative. Nasdaq futures remain structurally bullish, but NQ is now pressing into an important resistance zone near 30118-30159. The broader story is not only technical. A Financial

The struggle continues for the yen currency, even if market players are feeling more optimistic about the US-Iran situation. With each passing day the war continues, the damage to the Japanese economy continues to stack up. That especially as the Strait of Hormuz remains in de facto closure. It’s hard to remember the last time

There are just a couple of expiries to take note of the day, as highlighted in bold below. The first being for EUR/USD at the 1.1650 level. It is not one that ties to any technical significance but much like before, could help to keep a lid on price action as we look to the

Oil falls in early Asian trade on hopes for a US-Iran deal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, though options data shows unusually low investor conviction and a 37% implied chance of oil above $100 in three months. Summary: Source: Wall Street Journal (gated); Capital Economics analyst Kieran Tompkins Oil declined in early Asian trading

Solid data from China. I’ll have more to come on this separately, details etc. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

ECB policymaker Francois Villeroy de Galhau tells CNBC the bank will do what is necessary to return inflation to 2%, as eurozone prices hit 3% on Iran war energy shock. Summary: Source: CNBC interview with Bank of France Governor Francois Villeroy de Galhau Bank of France Governor Villeroy de Galhau told CNBC the ECB will

RBNZ Gov Breman says all policy setters agree on hikes, but not on timing BOJ signals loose conditions persist as Ueda lays groundwork for rate hike ahead Australia April CPI slows to 4.2% but core inflation creeps to highest since 2024 NZD jumps – RBNZ holds OCR at 2.25% by casting vote as committee splits

French consumer confidence tumbled lower in the latest month to 82, that being the weakest such reading since March 2023. Since the start of the US-Iran conflict, consumer confidence has fallen by 9 points in the past three months. That marks the steepest decline over the same period since 2022. The details reveal a further

Social media reports, so please treat with care. Talk of this has been circulating, started by an Al Jazeera chief a few hours ago. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

Australia’s April CPI slowed to 4.2% annually, undershooting forecasts, as a fuel excise cut weighed on headline, but the trimmed mean core measure edged up to 3.4%, its highest since late 2024. Summary: Source: Australian Bureau of Statistics, April 2026 monthly CPI indicator Headline CPI rose 0.4% in April, slowing the annual pace to 4.2%

NAB forecasts Australian April headline CPI easing to 4.4% on fuel excise relief, but warns of broadening cost pass-through with trimmed mean seen at 3.4%, risk skewed higher. Summary: NAB forecasts headline CPI falling to 4.4% in April from 4.6%, driven by a roughly 7% monthly decline in automotive fuel prices following the government’s 32

The USD is modestly higher to start the US session reversing some of the declines from the moves during the holiday session yesterday. Against the 3 major currencies – the EUR, JPY and GBP – the gains are moderate with a rise of 0.08% vs the EUR, 0.19% vs the JPY and 0.24% vs the

The US treasury auctions $69B of 2 year notes at a high yield of 4.071% WI at the time of the auction 4.071% Bid to cover 2.64X vs average of 2.62X Dealers 12.3% vs 12.8 avg Directs 30.1% vs average of 29.2% Indirects 57.6% vs 6-month average of 57.9% Dealers 12.3% vs average of 12.8%

The AUDUSD pushed higher today, but the rally once again stalled near a key technical ceiling. The price tested the 50% retracement of the move down from the May high at 0.71774, and sellers leaned against that level to keep the upside capped. That area also lines up with prior swing highs, making it a

As the US and Iran maneuver through the minefield of a ceasefire memorandum, Israel and Lebanon continue the fight. Netanyahu is saying that the Israel military forces are on the ground in Southern Lebanon and taking control of strategic areas. The tightrope act is precarious. Will peace eventually prevail or will war escalate? This article