Fundamental Overview The USD continues to be backed by good economic data as we have also seen recently from the US PMIs last Friday and the US Consumer Confidence report this week. Although such data keeps the interest rates expectations stable around two cuts by the end of the year, it should also support the […]

Economic confidence 95.9 vs 96.2 expectedPrior 96.0Industrial confidence -10.1 vs -9.6 expectedPrior -9.9Services confidence 6.5 vs 6.4 expectedPrior 6.5 Euro area economic sentiment eased a touch in June, with manufacturing confidence being the slight drag. Adding to that, consumer inflation expectations did nudge up a little to 13.1 – up from 12.5 previously. It points

If you want a fantastic rundown of what the USD/CNY midpoint is look no further than the daily updates from Eamonn here. This article was written by Arno V Venter at www.forexlive.com.

Fundamental Overview The USD continues to be backed by good economic data as we have also seen recently from the US PMIs last Friday and the US Consumer Confidence report this week. Although such data keeps the interest rates expectations stable around two cuts by the end of the year, it should also support the

Prior was +0.1% (revised to +0.2%)Retail inventories ex autos 0.0% vs +0.3% prior (revised to +0.2%) This is a lower tier release but is positive for Q2 GDP. This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

German DAX futures flatUK FTSE futures flat This comes with US futures backpedaling a little after tech shares stirred up some last-minute gains yesterday. S&P 500 futures are down 0.2% on the day currently. For European indices, French stocks will remain in focus after the CAC 40 fell by 0.7% in the day before. The

Initial jobless claims 233K vs. 236K expected and 238K prior (revised to 239K).Continuing Claims 1839K vs. 1824K expected and 1828K prior (revised to 1821K). The data is within the range of estimates and shouldn’t get the market to fret over it too much. Of note, Continuing Claims just set a new cycle high, which shows

Headlines: BOJ’s Uchida says closely monitoring yen movement in conducting monetary policyBOJ reportedly conducting survey of bond market players over its tapering plansECB’s Kažimír: I think we can expect one more rate cut this yearBOE says that UK households, businesses are coping with higher ratesRBA’s Hauser: It would be a bad mistake to set policy

USDJPY getting close to 161 after taking out the previous intervention highs close to 161.20. Mostly likely quite a decent amount of stops triggered as we broke to new highs helping the pair higher. With treading on fresh ground it means intervention watch is in overdrive in markets. It’s easy to blame the move in

Discover the disadvantages of a trailing stop loss and what to do instead to maximize returns in the markets The post Disadvantages Of A Trailing Stop Loss (An Explanatory Guide) appeared first on TradingwithRayner.

Goods trade balance (Adv) -100.62B vs. -97.95B prior This is low tier data and not a market moving release. This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at www.forexlive.com.

The dollar is holding in a decent spot on the week but is marginally lower today against the likes of the euro and sterling. The ranges for the day are still relatively narrow, so I wouldn’t look much into that. Instead, the focus stays on USD/JPY as it trades to its highest levels in more

Japan’s top currency diplomat: Seriously concerned about recent rapid yen weakeningUS May new home sales 0.619m vs 0.640m expectedECB’s Lane: If baseline holds, there will be more cutsPierre Andurand ditches oil in favor of copper and cocoaUS 5-year notes sell at 4.331% vs 4.335% WIThe latest poll puts Le Pen at 36%EIA US weekly crude

Counter-cyclical buffer maintained at 2%Risk management in private equity sector needs improving to reduce vulnerabilitiesGlobal financial risk environment “broadly unchanged” from Q1Adjustment to higher interest rates is still not completeMarket prices are still vulnerable to a sharp correctionMany UK households are under pressure from higher living costs, ratesUK businesses “broadly resilient” to current economic outlookFull

Fundamental Overview The USD continues to be backed by good economic data as we have also seen recently from the US PMIs last Friday and the US Consumer Confidence report this week. Although such data keeps the interest rates expectations stable around two cuts by the end of the year, it should also support the

It’s a busy economic schedule ahead for both Europe and the US today. However, in a week like this where quarter-end flows are in the mix and where markets are focused on idiosyncratic drivers like politics, I’m not sure whether the tier 2 and tier 3 data will really matter to markets as much. We

The big 7 kept up pretty well when compared to the price action we saw in the USD and yields. Tesla was the best performer (still down more than 20% YTD though), while Google treaded water to finish close to flat. Amazon finished up 3.9%, with some good notes from Adam regarding Amazon and the

Fundamental Overview The USD continues to be backed by good economic data as we have also seen recently from the US PMIs last Friday and the US Consumer Confidence report this week. Although such data keeps the interest rates expectations stable around two cuts by the end of the year, it should also support the

Fundamental Overview The USD continues to be backed by good economic data as we have also seen recently from the US PMIs last Friday and the US Consumer Confidence report this week. Although such data keeps the interest rates expectations stable around two cuts by the end of the year, it should also support the

Japan retail sales YY: 3.0% vs 2.0% expectedJapan large scale retail sales YY: 4.0% vs 3.0% prior This article was written by Arno V Venter at www.forexlive.com.

US equities slumped early in the day but battled back late in the day on strong bids in Nvidia late to turn a 2% decline into a small gain. Amazon led the way all day as it climbed 4% in a breakout to a record high. Closing changes: S&P 500 +0.2%Nasdaq Comp +0.5%DJIA +0.1%Russell 2000

A mixed result for commodities with platinum up over 3% while natgas down more than 4%. Compared to the strength in the USD the results shows a lot more noise than signal. It’s always tricky to pin down reasons for moves when we have quarter-end flows to deal with so just keep that in mind

The European session today is going to be empty as we get just some low tier releases. In the American session we get the Final US Q1 GDP, the US Durable Goods Orders and the US Jobless Claims figures. The GDP report is the “Final” one, so it’s very old news (as it’s always the

Upcoming debate could put some short-term focus on upcoming US electionsLikes med-term USD upside exposureUSD upside exposure has added benefit of hedging against non-US political risks (France)Thinks the most negative scenario for both the USD and the S&P500 is a democrat sweep, while the most positive scenario for both is a republican sweep Below is

It’s been a good day for the AUD and the USD, less than optimal day for the JPY and NZD. The AUD was supported after a hotter-than-expected CPI print and markets seeing about a 60% change of a hike at the September meeting and 74% odds of a hike by November. The USD’s move was

New Zealand Business Outlook: 6.1 vs 11.2 priorNew Zealand Own Activity: 12.2 vs 11.8 prior This article was written by Arno V Venter at www.forexlive.com.

It’s all about whether a further run higher will trigger intervention from Tokyo at this stage. It’s a psychological game for the most part, and you can even coin it as a game of chicken. Do buyers have more resolve or does the conviction sit with Japanese authorities instead? The thing to watch is still

It’s been a very quiet session on the Asia-Pac side with very little notable news releases or fundamental news. The biggest focus for markets have been the continued weakness in the JPY which saw the USDJPY trade very close to the 161 level, but has since backed off the highs. Looking at the price action

Cable has sagged to a session low, down 69 pips to 1.2617. That’s the lowest since May 14 but roughly in the middle of the 2024 range. What’s most-worrisome is the three-day reversal on the chart, which is a textbook reversal pattern. A finish today below Monday’s low of 1.2622 would complete the pattern. Today’s

The BoC’s preferred core inflation gauges, such as trimmed mean and weighted median CPI, surged in May, indicating a reacceleration of underlying inflationary pressures.Core services inflation, including shelter costs, remains very high. Shelter inflation is broadening, with rents continuing to soar and other drivers of shelter costs entering a new phase.Categories that previously contributed to

Risk sentiment trades fairly mixed as we close out the Asia-Pac session. FX: In the FX space, the AUD has moved into the top spot (earlier the JPY was the strongest), while the USD has moved into the bottom spot. Probably not that surprising to see the USD softer after the gains we’ve seen in

PBoC injects 100 billion Yuan via 7-day reverse reposSets 7-day reverse repo rate at 1.8% vs 1.8% prior This article was written by Arno V Venter at www.forexlive.com.

Looking across US equity sectors we only had two sectors in the green, that being Consumer Discretionary (+1.45%) and Communication Services (+0.01%) which was basically flat. The rest of the sectors were pressured with energy (-0.98%) and financials (-0.63%) taking the biggest punch. Worth noting that despite the shaky price action the YTD performance is

China industrial profits YY 3.4% vs 4.3% prior This article was written by Arno V Venter at www.forexlive.com.

Famed oil trader Pierre Andurand is out of the oil market, at least for now. His main fund lost around 50% last year on bad bets on crude and he’s soured on the sector and now has a ‘mixed’ outlook. “We will reengage in the oil markets once we obtain greater clarity on the supply

Below is an extract from Eamonn’s handy posts regarding the midpoint setting, and here is some further explanation of what it is and how it works. The People’s Bank of China set the onshore yuan (CNY) reference rate for the trading session ahead. USD/CNY is the onshore yuan. Its permitted to trade plus or minus

Japan FinMin Suzuki: Won’t comment on forex levels.Japan FinMin Suzuki: FX stability is desirable.Japan FinMin Suzuki: Watching FX moves with high sense of urgency.Japan FinMin Suzuki: Deeply concerned about FX impact on economy.Japan FinMin Suzuki: Will take necessary actions on FX This article was written by Arno V Venter at www.forexlive.com.

Credit Agricole’s latest G10 FX PIX 2.0 model indicates significant shifts in currency positioning. The EUR is now deemed oversold, while the CHF has turned overbought. These findings are based on recent IMM flow data and overall market sentiment. Key Points: G10 FX PIX 2.0 Model Insights: The model shows GBP, CHF, and NZD as

Fed: Banks reported higher losses than in 2023 stress test as bank balance sheets are riskier and expenses are higher.US Federal Reserve stress test shows large US banks are well positioned to weather severe recession and stay above minimum capital requirements.Fed: Thirty-one large US banks reported nearly $685 billion in losses under 2024 Fed stress

Shares of Nvidia are down 2.1% today after trading higher earlier. It’s been volatile in the past week after rising to briefly become the world’s most-valuable company. Nvidia Chief Executive Jensen Huang spoke at the company’s annual meeting today and one of his comments stood out on the macro front. He said the next frontier

Japanese chief currency diplomat Kanda dropped all the warnings just before Tokyo went to bed but there was no intervention. It’s now nearly 1 am in Tokyo and the market is sensing that it’s safe for a least a few hours. I imagine there’s some element of short-covering here as those expecting a line in

Shares of Amazon are catching a bid today, rising 3.1% to an all time high. The climb above $192 along with 10.406 billion shares outstanding puts the company above a $2 trillion market cap for the first time. That’s against earnings guidance of $10-14 billion in the current quarter and consensus earnings of $5.74 next

MUFG anticipates that the latest inflation data from Australia could prompt the Reserve Bank of Australia to consider another rate hike at its upcoming meeting on August 6th. The surprising uptick in inflation, coupled with fiscal stimulus measures and the RBA’s current policy bias, strengthens the case for maintaining a hawkish stance. Key Points: Inflation

Prior was 4.331% The cash market has dipped after a 0.4 bp stop through. This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

S&P 500 and Nasdaq futures are down 0.3% just ahead of the open. Eyes are on shares of Nvidia, which ended a three-day 16% correction yesterday with a 6% gain. That gain looked set to continue a few hours ago with shares up as much as 2.5% in the premarket., However those gains evaporated over

The US Dollar started to appreciate in the European session and it’s adding to the gains as we head towards the European close. There was no fresh catalyst this week that justifies the current price action. This might be just noise from quarter-end and some flows from USD/JPY which broke through the key 160.00 handle

Prior was 0.634m (revised to 0.698m)Sales down 11.3%Supply 9.3 months vs April at 8.1 months The large upward revision to the prior is responsible for a big part of that 11.3% decline but these numbers are still soft. I wrote yesterday about how Restoration Hardware and Pool Corp have had some troubling comments about housing-related

Le Pen’s party at 36%Macron’s group has 21% IFOP projects Le Pen and her allies will get 220-260 seats in the National Assembly, short of the 289 needed for a majority but not far off. This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

Verbal intervention isn’t what it used to be. There was a time when tough talk from Kanda was worth +150 pips and some serious reconsideration of positions. Today, he pushed all the buttons and the market isn’t impressed. After a 35-pip dip, there has been a rapid turnaround to a session high. The one line

Today the only notable event was the Australian monthly CPI report which surprised to the upside and raised the chances of a rate hike from the RBA. If you want some more details you can read Justin’s post here. The rest of the day is basically empty with very low tier indicators that won’t be

Martin Schlegel was widely tapped for the job once Thomas Jordan announced his retirement. Antoine Martin is set to become the new vice-chairman while Petra Tschdin was appointed to the three-member governing board of the SNB. All appointments are effective Oct 1. Update: He’s out with some comments. Great honor to be named next ChairmanStresses

They note that several measures of demand is slowing, and that the housing market’s sizeable imbalances make it relatively more vulnerable to the lagged impact of higher rates.Furthermore, they note that cutting rates now might not be enough to avoid a recession (looking at the ‘O Canada Rule’ which is based on a modified version

Below is an extract from Eamonn’s handy posts regarding the midpoint setting, and here is some further explanation of what it is and how it works. The People’s Bank of China set the onshore yuan (CNY) reference rate for the trading session ahead. USD/CNY is the onshore yuan. Its permitted to trade plus or minus

We will take rate cuts step by step There is this consensus among market participants that even if things deteriorate that central banks will move slowly. That very well may be the case but it would be a mistake and the market would certainly be kicking and screaming in protest. This article was written by

Trademax Australia Limited, operating under the TMGM brand, a leading provider of contracts for difference (CFDs) and margin forex trading services, announces that the Australian Securities and Investments Commission (ASIC) has revoked the interim stop orders previously issued in relation to TMGM’s contracts for difference. On June 13, 2024, ASIC issued interim stop orders prohibiting

The market is pricing in a 36% chance of a cut on July 18 and rising up to 90% for Sept 12. Through 2025, there are 117 bps in cuts priced in. This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

Closing changes: Stoxx 600 -0.5%German DAX -0.1%UK FTSE 100 -0.2%French CAC -0.7%Italy MIB -0.4%Spain IBEX -0.7% The first round of the French election is this Sunday. This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

If you want a fantastic rundown of what the USD/CNY midpoint is look no further than the daily updates from Eamonn here. This article was written by Arno V Venter at www.forexlive.com.

Fundamental Overview Crude oil managed to eventually break above the key $80 resistance as the market has finally started to catch up to positive drivers. In fact, we got the recent OPEC+’s extension of voluntary output cuts, and we are seeing a pickup in economic activity as the US PMIs showed once again last Friday.

ABN AMRO with some thoughts on the Fed: Expected to cut rates starting in September 2024Recent macro data indicate a cooling economy, with lower consumption as excess savings are depleted.But believes household balance sheets and accommodative financial conditions are expected to provide a floor for economic activity, preventing a deeper recession.Reasons for expecting cuts in

German DAX futures +0.5%UK FTSE futures +0.2% This comes after the better showing in Wall Street towards the latter stages yesterday. For European indices, it has been a bit of a back and forth week thus far. Meanwhile, S&P 500 futures are seen up 0.1% on the day currently. This article was written by Justin

Overview of Today’s Stock Market Today’s stock market presents a complex tapestry of gains and losses across various sectors, compelling investors to take a nuanced view of the market dynamics. From the heatmap, the technology sector shows a resilient performance, particularly highlighted by Apple Inc.’s rise. In contrast, companies in the consumer cyclical and communication

Headlines: USD/JPY slowly testing the waters above the 160.00 markUSDJPY Technical Analysis – The market is testing the intervention level againIs a rate hike back on the menu for the RBA?Equities see early gains fade as the push and pull continuesECB’s Panetta says should avoid even “casual forward guidance” on timing of rate movesECB’s Rehn:

The dynamics of inflation continue to indicate that it will stabilise at target in the medium-term Is dismissing more resistant price pressures and calling it a bumpy road the new “transitory” talk? This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

USD/CAD Could see significant upward movement, particularly in a risk-off market.As the Fed and BoC policies diverge, with the Fed potentially being less dovish than the BoC, the USD/CAD pair is likely to benefit. Investors might not currently be pricing in this divergence fully, providing scope for a significant rise in USD/CAD, especially above the

Comments from Masato Kanda: Closely monitoring market’s movement with high vigilanceAlways prepared to respondDon’t have specific levels in mindBelieve that majority view yen weakness as speculativeRecent yen moves are rapidIt is certain that current moves are one-sided USD/JPY quickly lower on this, though the comment about specific levels sounds to me like a hint that

Prior was -2547KGasoline stocks +2654K vs -1024K expectedRefinery utilization -1.3% vs +0.1% expectedDistillates -377K vs -1050K expectedProduction unchanged at 13.2 mbpd These numbers are bearish. API inventory numbers from late yesterday: Crude +914KGasoline +3843KDistillates -1178K This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

Eyes are on Japan at the moment with USD/JPY at the highest since 1990. They could intervene at any time but if they wait too long, then look for the market to push higher. They are unlikely to get any help from the USD side of the equation with no major data releases today and

Prior was +2.4% The decline reflects lower sales in the motor vehicle and motor vehicle parts and accessories subsector, according to Statistics Canada. It’s a big drop but comes after a jump in April so it’s not a surprise. This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

Weighted CPI YY: 4.0% vs 3.8% expectedCPI SA YY: 4.1% vs 3.8% priorCPI SA MM: 0.2% vs 0.2% priorCPI Annualized trimmed mean YY: 4.4% vs 4.4% prior This article was written by Arno V Venter at www.forexlive.com.

The difference this time around is that the pace of the run higher is one that is less surging and speculative, one might argue. But dip buyers are certainly telling Japanese officials that they are still not deterred. There’s going to be plenty of watchful eyes here to see if Tokyo will want to step

Eurostoxx +0.5%Germany DAX +0.8%France CAC 40 +0.4%UK FTSE +0.4%Spain IBEX +0.3%Italy FTSE MIB +0.2% It’s tough to get a read on things on European indices this week. The Monday gains were largely erased yesterday but are now being restored in the early stages of trading today. That reflects a rather back and forth mood, with

Reserve Bank of Australia Assistant Gov Kent: Range of measures shows monetary policy is restrictive.RBA’s Kent: Policy contributing to slower growth of demand, lower inflation.RBA’s Kent: Recent data reinforced need to be vigilant to upside inflation risks.RBA’s Kent: Hence, not ruling anything in or out for interest rates.RBA’s Kent: Cash rate is above our range

Weak economy threatens treasury forecastsNZ economist McLeish sees recent data indicating economic weaknessNZ treasury considers additional spending and revenue solutions This article was written by Arno V Venter at www.forexlive.com.

Prior +0.9%Market index 212.0 vs 210.4 priorPurchase index 147.8 v 146.0 priorRefinance index 552.4 vs 552.7 prior30-year mortgage rate 6.93% vs 6.94% prior Mortgage applications were a touch higher in the past week, with a rise in purchase activity helping to offset a marginal decline in refinancing activity. Overall, housing activity remains rather tepid at

Easy come, easy go. European indices opened higher but have pared gains on the day with the CAC 40 index in particular now marked down by 0.6%. The nerves are still flowing in the equities space and more so for Europe with the French elections coming up. As for US futures, we are also seeing

There are two ways for a company to improve profitability — raise prices and lower costs. Those both boost stock prices but have very different macro implications. Shares of FedEx are up 8.7% in after-market trading following earnings. The jump would get shares back close to the April highs. Highlights: Sees 2025 capex of $5.2B

Prior -20.9; revised to -21.0 German consumer sentiment dips in July, ending a streak of four consecutive rises. GfK notes that “the interruption of the recent upward trend shows that the road out of the sluggish consumption will be difficult and there can always be setbacks”. This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

Fundamental Overview The USD continues to be backed by good economic data as we have also seen recently from the US PMIs last Friday and the US Consumer Confidence report yesterday. Although such data keeps the interest rates expectations stable around two cuts by the end of the year, it also supports the risk sentiment

Inflation is slowly approaching the 2% target, allowing the European Central Bank to cut interest rates by 25 basis points and change rhetoric with room for further easing. This might seem like a positive sign for markets, but French and German 10-year bond yields remain near 2010 levels when the bloc faced a debt crisis.

FX: The star performer in the session has been the AUD. The currency saw a jolt higher following hotter-than-expected CPI data with the weighted CPI YY measure printing at 4.0% (highest since Nov 2023) and the CPI YY measure coming in at 4.1%. Market probability for an RBA rate hike has increased as a result

Indicators suggest valuations and positioning are not at stretched levels.EURUSD valuations are far from having overshot in the move lower.Reinforces conviction for appealing risk-reward to hold short EUR exposure.Elections compound the scope for downside.Positions not near extreme levels, indicating scope for further shorts to be added ahead of the event.Recommends EURJPY shorts Looking at EURUSD

Fundamental Overview The USD continues to be backed by good economic data as we have also seen recently from the US PMIs last Friday and the US Consumer Confidence report yesterday. Although such data keeps the interest rates expectations stable around two cuts by the end of the year, it also supports the risk sentiment

Fundamental Overview Copper remains under pressure, albeit the bearish momentum appears to be slowing. Last week, the FT reported that stockpiles in Shanghai warehouses hit their highest level since 2020 amid weak demand due to China’s real estate sector downturn. Given the high prices reached in the previous month, manufacturers refrained from buying since they

Prior 8 The UK retail sales balance dips back into negative territory in June, with expected retail sales for July also seen weakening further. The reading for the latter is down to -9 as opposed to -4 for June last month. This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

The aussie is the main mover so far today, pushing higher after hotter May inflation numbers here. That is reigniting talks of an RBA rate cut heading into August, with the Q2 CPI report at the end of July going to be a big one to watch. Besides that, major currencies are mostly little changed

ECB could gradually reduce interest rates if outlook holdsCurrent macroeconomic picture is consistent with normalisation of monetary stanceWe have reasons to believe that sticky services inflation is not abnormal in any way Expanding on the headline remark, Panetta also advised his colleagues to stay the course as deviating from that would mean veering away from

The selling of the dollar should be “mild” this month-end, with their model indicating the strongest sell signal to be against the euro. Meanwhile, the firm also notes that their corporate flow model suggests that the euro currency to be in demand this month-end. Just keep this in your back pocket in case, as we

It’s all a psychological game now when it comes to USD/JPY. The pair is testing waters above the 160.00 mark again, with traders cautious about jumping the gun and incurring the wrath of Japanese officials. From a technical perspective, it’s clear skies for USD/JPY above 160.00 with the 1990 high merely seen at 160.40. Above

Prior 18.2 UBS notes that: “Ahead of elections in France and the US, domestic politics in those countries is the biggest concern. In Switzerland, economic growth is the primary concern. Survey participants expect the Swiss franc to appreciate further against the euro and US dollar.” This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

Results via oilprice.com on X: This article was written by Arno V Venter at www.forexlive.com.

AUDUSD has jumped higher after the hotter than expected CPI numbers out of Australia this morning. The odds of a hold for the August meeting has fallen to 70% from the prior of 89%, while the odds of a hike for the September meeting has climbed to 35% from the prior of 12%(ish). Will be

Australia weighted CPI YY 4.0% vs 3.8% expectedAUDUSD pops higher after hotter than expected CPI data In their latest policy decision here, the RBA continues to put out the narrative that they are not ruling anything in or out. It speaks to the uncertainty on the inflation outlook, in which they also argued that the

Aussie CPI data for May is due at 02:30 BST. For this week’s CPI release, some participants are expecting the MM measure of headline inflation to show a flat reading for prices, thanks to seasonal discounts on holiday expenses and clothing, plus a dip in retail gasoline prices. However, the YY measure is expected to

Fundamental Overview The USD continues to be backed by good economic data as we have also seen recently from the US PMIs last Friday and the US Consumer Confidence report yesterday. Such data keeps the interest rates expectations stable around two cuts by the end of the year and supports the risk sentiment amid a

Prior 90 French consumer sentiment eased a little further in June, remaining below its long-term average of 100. Of note, the future standard of living saw a sharp decline amid a rise in the opinion of future inflation. The good news at least is that unemployment fears have subsided a bit after the jump in

The dollar is up a little as we get into European morning trade, with a lack of any real catalysts. EUR/USD is now down nearly 0.3% to 1.0685 while USD/JPY is inching up to 159.90 currently. The greenback is keeping on firmer footing and I would argue that is in part helped by a continued

Australia composite leading index -0.01 vs -0.03 prior This article was written by Arno V Venter at www.forexlive.com.

Credit Agricole discusses the impact of the RBA’s hawkish hold, arguing it strengthens the case for being long on AUD/USD and AUD/NZD. This decision has reduced speculation about rate cuts and even led to some pricing in potential rate hikes. Meanwhile, NZ’s Chief Economist sounded less hawkish, supporting the long AUD/NZD trade. Key Points: RBA’s

There are just two to take note of on the day, as highlighted in bold. And they are both for EUR/USD, pinned on either side of the spot price at 1.0700 and 1.0750. That is likely to lock price action in the session ahead, with more expiries following that up at 1.0650, 1.0700, and 1.0750

Earlier in the session we saw the AUD jump higher on hotter-than-expected CPI data for May, which has increased the odds for a hike at the August and September meetings. Then we also had negative comments on the NZ economy from the NZ treasury which has sparked some downside pressure in the NZD. Positive catalyst

The USDCNY is approaching the previous max pain level around 7.37 where the PBoC intervened in 2023 so worth keeping that level marked up. The PBoC continuously adjusted the mid-point weaker in recent sessions with yesterday seeing the weakest setting since Nov 2023. This article was written by Arno V Venter at www.forexlive.com.

I wrote earlier that the knives were likely to come out for Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau after he lost a by-election in a Liberal stronghold. However it sounds like he will have to be dragged out kicking and screaming, or via an election that’s not due until October 20, 2025. He released a statement

There is a guy on Nvidia right now talking about NVDA at a $6 trillion valuation, which isn’t the kind of thing you see at a bottom… In any case, shares are up nearly 7% today in a huge rebound that nearly erases yesterday’s drop. The bounce came from just above the 38.2% retracement of

Commodities are mostly in the red across the board as we get closer to the Asia-Pac session. The easy blame for this today was the stronger dollar, but to be fair the commodity/USD inverse correlation has been hit and miss over the last few months with a few occasions showing a positive correlation. We also

Taking a look at today’s economic calendar, the main highlight during Asia-Pac is the May CPI data out of Australia due at 02:30 BST / 21:30 ET. Also heads up that we get RBA’s Kent on the wires (expected at 00:35 BST / 19:35 ET). Will be interesting to hear if he has anything to

Russian Defense Minister Belousov warns US Defense Secretary Austin of dangers of escalation of continued US arms supplies to Ukraine, Russian Ministry says. This article was written by Arno V Venter at www.forexlive.com.

Canada May CPI 2.9% versus 2.6% expectedUS June consumer confidence 100.4 vs 100.0 expectedRichmond Fed June manufacturing index -10 vs. 2 expectedFed’s Cook: Current policy is well positioned, attentive to inflation expectationsShares of Fedex jump as 2025 guidance lowers capex, highlights cost savingsShares of Nvidia surge nearly 7% to lead tech reboundUS sells 2-year Treasury

Earlier today Bowman said we’re not yet at the point where it is appropriate to cut rates. This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

As we head closer to the Asia-Pac session, let’s take a look at where the FX majors are trading. Sterling is in the top spot while the EUR has been the underperformer. Can’t really put a good enough reason on the price ation yesterday. CAD saw initial upside on a hot CPI print and then

The Nasdaq struggled yesterday but bounced back today in a rebound from three days of selling. What next? The JPM desk offered up this. The bull case: Economic data inflects higherPositive July seasonals;Earnings deliver on expectationsBond yields peakPositioning tailwinds The bear case: Macro sentiment deterioratesTactical pullback arrivesWeaker guidanceAI theme abandonmentExogenous shocks h/t @MrMBrown This article

Right on the screws. Prior was 4.917% Yields were above 5% in April and parts of May but have come down as Fed cuts creep closer and inflation cools. T-bills still yield 5.37% so you have the choice to roll or lock in for two years. We get 5s tomorrow and 7s on Thursday. This

The two sides are putting out a joint statement, remarking that: Japan, South Korea share serious concerns on respective currency depreciationWill continue to take appropriate steps to respond to declining value of currency Suzuki then adds that it would be “desirable for FX to move stably, reflecting fundamentals”. All in all, nothing that we haven’t

Introduction to Today’s Market Dynamics Today’s trading session exhibits a colorful mosaic of gains and losses across various sectors, revealing subtle yet significant market movements. A deep dive into today’s stock market heatmap provides us with a clearer picture of which sectors are thriving and which are just surviving. 🌐 Technology Sector In the technology

Prior was -12.1Employment +1.8 vs +3.9 priorOverall outlook -4.1 vs -12.1 priorCompany outlook -1.3 vs -5.7 priorInput prices +20.7 vs +24.7 priorSelling prices +3.8 vs +3.9 prior There’s a clear trend in services inflation here. The amount of comments in the report about politics are worrisome. The reality is that the White House has zero

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At some point it will be appropriate to cutTiming of policy adjustments wil ldepend on data and outlookRise in inflation expectations would imply keeping policy restrictive for longerInflation has slowed, labor market tightness has easedExpect disinflation trend to continueExpect 12 month inflation moving sideways for the rest of the year, slowing more sharply next yearExpect

Federal Reserve Governor Lisa Cook spoke today and highlighted that unemployment is at a low level. Objectively, it’s true: But I want to highlight the extreme right-hand side of the chart because of the Sahm rule. it’s named after economist Claudia Sahm and is an economic indicator aiming to identify a recession sooner. The rule

If you don’t know Pool Corporation, it’s one of the all-time great compounders. It specializes in swimming pool supplies, equipment and products, locking down the entire industry. It has been one of the top-20 US stocks for decades as it rode the wave of housing investment and a demographic shift to warmer climates. Today, however,

They’re going to hold too long. It was written in stone they would hold too long after they blew it on inflation. Initial claims still coming in lowWe see cautious optimism in the business communityAt this point, the risks to inflation and employment are in better balanceFrom contacts, concerns now are the ones we had

Jim Cramer was on CNBC this morning talking macro. He highlighted population growth as a critical factory restraining wages and taming inflation. He cited 10 million people entering the country since the pandemic. That doesn’t match up with what the Census Bureau is saying as the official number for the year ending in July 2023

USDCNY has seen immediate upside following the weakest mid-point setting by the PBoC since November last year. We still have some ways to go before we get to 7.36-37 (which was the previous line in the sand where the PBoC stepped in to curb CNY weakness), but worth keeping an eye on it. This article

Fundamental Overview The USD last week finished slightly positive but overall, it was a pretty flat week. We got some great US PMIs on Friday which showed growth without inflationary pressures. In fact, despite the strong PMIs the market pricing for interest rates remained unchanged. That should be generally positive for risk sentiment going forward.

National Activity Index 0.18 vs. -0.23 prior (revised to -0.26). This is very volatile data and not a market moving release. The Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) is a monthly index designed to gauge overall economic activity and related inflationary pressure. The Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) increased to +0.18 in May from

Fundamental Overview Gold got hit hard last Friday by the strong US PMIs as real yields rose following the data release. The report though showed that inflationary pressures continue to abate and that’s also the reason why the market’s expectation for interest rates remained unchanged. The overreaction from the US PMIs is getting slowly erased

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Fundamental Overview We got a bit of a pullback in the S&P 500 in the last few days. If we were to try to find a catalyst, the second miss in a row in the US Jobless Claims last Thursday could be it, but the data was still pretty good and not worrying in the

There is just one to take note of on the day, as highlighted in bold. That being for EUR/USD at the 1.0700 level. The expiries should keep a floor on price action in the session ahead, if anything else. But the spot price is slightly far away with a more muted mood overall ahead of

Fundamental Overview The USD last week finished slightly positive but overall, it was a pretty flat week. We got some great US PMIs on Friday which showed growth without inflationary pressures. In fact, despite the strong PMIs the market pricing for interest rates remained unchanged. That should be generally positive for risk sentiment going forward.

Manufacturing index -10 vs. 2 expected and 0 prior.Services index -11 vs. 3 prior.Manufacturing shipments index -9 vs. 13 prior. Fifth District manufacturing activity slowed in June, according to the most recent survey from the Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond. The composite manufacturing index decreased from 0 in May to −10 in June. Of its

Prior was 102.0 (revised to 101.3)Expectations 73.0 vs 74.9 priorPresent situation 141.5 vs 140.8 prior14.1% of consumers said jobs were “hard to get,” down from 14.3%.12 month inflation expectations 5.3% vs 5.4% prior “Confidence pulled back in June but remained within the same narrow range that’s held throughout the past two years, as strength in

The Bank of Canada’s job just got a little tougher. Yesterday, Bank of Canada Governor Tiff Macklem spoke about wages and productivity. He dismissed stickier wage data: “Depending on the measure you look at, wage growth peaked at between 4½% and 6%. This was roughly twice the pre-pandemic average of 2% to 3%. With inflation

Today is likely the beginning of the end of Justin Trudeau’s hold on Canadian federal politics. Polls have been bad for the Prime Minister for many months but they’ve deteriorated further lately and yesterday he suffered a crushing defeat. A special election was held in his Liberal Party’s stronghold yesterday after the retirement of a

Prior +0.6% On an annual basis, Spain’s economic output expanded by 2.5%. The figures just reinforce the stronger performance by the periphery nations especially in Q1. This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

Fed’s Bowman: not yet at the point where it is appropriate to cut ratesMajor currencies not showing much appetite on the dayFrance on the verge of a political standstill?Japan finance minister says will closely monitor currency movementsEuropean equities on the backfoot again after the gains yesterdaySpain Q1 final GDP +0.8% vs +0.7% q/q prelimWhat are

There is some back-and-fill ongoing as the market in Europe waits for what is coming next. Closing changes: Stoxx 600 -0.3%German DAX -0.9%UK FTSE 100 -0.4%French CAC -0.7%Italy MIB -0.4%Spain IBEX -0.65% This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

Major currencies are not doing much to start the day but I would expect the ranges to broaden in European trading. The overall risk mood remains more mixed, with tech shares sinking in Wall Street yesterday. The Dow ended higher by 0.7% but the Nasdaq slumped by 1.1%, led by a further drop in Nvidia.

The first round of voting will begin this weekend on 30 June, before the second round on 7 July. There’s plenty of buzz surrounding the French election this time around. So, let’s take a look at what are the possible outcomes and how that might impact markets. It all started with the European parliamentary election

Major dollar pairs are still keeping within 0.1% change on the day and that sums up a rather lackluster start to European trading. The Canadian CPI report later will at least give loonie traders something to work with. Otherwise, broader markets have to look towards the overall risk mood and perhaps the Treasury auction for

We’ve seen this before. The market probes the Japanese Ministry of Finance and its willingness to intervene, gets close to the line in the sand and then retreats. It then regroups and tries again. That has been the playbook through out the past year and there is no sign the market is changing gears. USD/JPY

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Today there’s no notable event in the European session and all the action will take place in the American session as we get to see the Canadian CPI data and the US Consumer Confidence report. 12:30 GMT/08:30 ET – Canada May CPI The Canadian CPI Y/Y is expected at 2.6% vs. 2.7% prior, while the

As we near the Asia close, the JPY (white) is leading the majors while the CHF (green) and AUD (blue) isn’t too far behind. At the bottom of the barrel is the USD (yellow) and the NZD (purple). We have a mixture of safe havens and high betas at the top and the bottom of

Not yet at the point where it is appropriate to cut rates.Should data show inflation moving sustainably to 2%, it will eventually become appropriate to gradually lower policy rate.Baseline outlook continues to be inflation will return to 2% with policy rate held steady for some time.Willing to raise the target rate at a future meeting

I’ll quote an old line from Dennis Gartman: Should the General falter, the rest will falter too, for when the field General is shot and killed, the men below him scatter chaotically. Nvidia has undoubtedly been the ‘general’ of the bull market in the post-GPT era but it’s now down 16% in three trading days.

Prior month 2.7%CPI m/m +0.6% vs +0.3% estimate Core measures CPI Bank of Canada core y/y 1.8% vs 1.6% priorCPI Bank of Canada core m/m 0.6% versus 0.2% priorCore CPI m/m SA +0.3% vs 0.0% prior Trim 2.9% versus 2.8% prior Median 2.8% versus 2.6% prior Common 2.4% versus 2.6% prior Bank of Canada July

Recent inflation readings more encouraging but hard to now if on track to price stabilityWe have made a lot of progress on inflation, still work to doNearer to a point where benign outcome on labor market could be less likelyMust fully restore price stability without a painful disruption to the labor marketIf inflation falls more

Japan Services PPI 2.5 vs 2.8 prior This article was written by Arno V Venter at www.forexlive.com.

BOC Governor Tiff Macklem sounded a bit more dovish earlier today and the market is pricing in a 71% chance of a July 24 rate cut. We’ll be looking for more hints in the Q&A. This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

The CAC 40 has caught a modest bounce after meeting its 50.0 Fib retracement level, with the double-top pattern also completing its reversal in a fall under 7,650 two weeks ago. The bounce in the past week is a decent one but the index is still down by over 4% in June currently. Here’s a

Following yesterday’s move lower, US equity futures have attempted to put in a marginal bounce of their lows from yesterday. Traders will have to wait for the US cash open with eyes on Nvidia to see whether that will be sustained. Forex has traded fairly mixed today with the JPY leading while the USD the

BOC’s Macklem: Increasingly we look to be on our way to hitting inflation targetBOC’s Macklem Q&A: You can see some weakening of the labor force under the hoodFed’s Daly: Bumpiness of inflation data so far this year has not inspired confidenceFed’s Daly: Must be thoughtful about not loosening too early or holding too longMacron’s poll

BofA expects the Fed to start cutting in December: Persistent Inflation: Inflation is expected to remain above the Fed’s 2% target until 2026 due to strong labor demand and increased consumer spending.Gradual Rate Cuts: The Fed is expected to start easing rates in December 2024, with cuts continuing quarterly to a terminal rate of 3.5-3.75%

Both the EUR and European Equities saw decent outperformance against their US counterparts yesterday. The OAT/Bund spreads showed some calm yesterday with the spread falling 4 basis points from 0.76% to 0.72%. With the French snap elections coming up on Sunday, markets have already priced in a fair bit of risk premium on the fiscal

China Premier Li: We are confident and capable to achieve the full year growth target of around 5%.China Premier Li: Electric vehicles, lithium batteries produced by Chinese companies have not only met domestic demand but enriched global supply.China Premier Li: We should build a more fair non-discriminatory business environment for tech innovation.China Premier Li: We

A Bloomberg report said the Fed is floating a weaker version of the bank-capital overhaul. Jamie always wins. This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

Monday’s Asia-Pac started out very slow and boring as usual, but seems like some volatility has been reintroduced across major asset classes. Looking at FX, the EUR had a decent day, with the GBP in second place. The three safe havens (USD, CHF and JPY) were the clear laggards, which was interesting despite the risk

Japan to revise Jan-Mar GDP to reflect corrected data on construction orders from Land MinistryJapan revised Jan-Mar GDP to be released at 2350 GMT on June 30, 8:50 a.m. Japan time on July 1 This article was written by Arno V Venter at www.forexlive.com.

PBoC injects 300 billion Yuan via 7-day reverse reposSets 7-day reverse repo rate at 1.8% vs 1.8% prior This article was written by Arno V Venter at www.forexlive.com.

Australia consumer sentiment 1.7 vs -0.3 prior This article was written by Arno V Venter at www.forexlive.com.

Coincident index 115.2 vs 114.2 prior The assessment of the coincident index remains unchanged, defined as “signaling a possible turning point”. This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

German DAX futures -0.7%UK FTSE futures -0.1% Even though tech shares were the drag in Wall Street in the day before, European equities are seeing a pullback to yesterday’s gains. As a reminder, France remains on the brink ahead of the first round of elections this weekend. That remains a concern with eyes being on

Below is an extract from Eamonn’s handy posts regarding the midpoint setting, and here is some further explanation of what it is and how it works. The People’s Bank of China set the onshore yuan (CNY) reference rate for the trading session ahead. USD/CNY is the onshore yuan. Its permitted to trade plus or minus

Thankfully today’s economic calendar is a bit more exciting than yesterday. Main highlights will be Canadian CPI for May at 13:30 BST / 08:30 ET, followed by US Consumer Confidence at 15:00 BST/10:00 ET. We also have some Fed speak coming up with Bowman and Cook on the wires. Apart from that, worth keeping in

Once again, the ranges so far today is leaving a lot to be desired. After the rise yesterday, EUR/USD is stuck within a less than 10 pips range and that exemplifies the overall market mood. There’s not much to point to when it comes to the slight drop in the dollar yesterday. But it perhaps

Heading into the Trump/Biden debate this week, Goldman was out with a useful note on their expectations for a Republican victory. USD: Upside bias under a Republican victory Tariff Policies: Trump has proposed several potential tariff policies, including a 10% across-the-board tariff on imports and a 60% tariff on imports from China. These tariffs are

The poster child for AI took a bit of a day off it seems, with Nvidia down 6.7%. Catalysts are very thin for some of the moves we are seeing, but since it’s month-end and quarter-end I will take the easy way out and blame that for now. One would assume that some chunky rebalancing

We’ve seen inflationary pressures ease and we think they will continue to easeWe need to have conversations on improving our productivityWe’ve had exceptionally-strong supply shocksWe have too many small differences between provinces creating barriersThe economy has been changing rapidlyMy intention today was to highlight the things we’re looking at in the labor marketWe are looking

Rationale for long NOK: The Norges Bank is one of the last central banks likely to cut rates. The bank’s decision to keep rates on hold, coupled with elevated inflation expectations and wage growth, suggests a hawkish stance. The NOK is considered extremely undervalued, and the Norges Bank’s preference for a higher exchange rate to

Biden administration investigating China Telecom, China Mobile, and China UnicomThe probe is focused on potential US national security risks from their US cloud business and internet infrastructure This article was written by Arno V Venter at www.forexlive.com.

Japan Chief Cabinet Secretary Hayashi: Won’t comment on forex levels.Japan Chief Cabinet Secretary Hayashi: Important for currencies to move in stable manner reflecting fundamentals.Japan Chief Cabinet Secretary Hayashi: Excessive FX volatility undesirable.Japan Chief Cabinet Secretary Hayashi: Closely watching FX moves, will respond appropriately to excessive volatility. This article was written by Arno V Venter at

If you want a fantastic rundown of what the USD/CNY midpoint is look no further than the daily updates from Eamonn here. This article was written by Arno V Venter at www.forexlive.com.

US Presidential hopeful Donald Trump is in talks to speak at Bitcoin 2024 in Nashville at the end of July, according to Axios. Margins are tight in the election and Trump is trying to court every vote he can. “I will end Joe Biden’s war on crypto,” Trump said in Wisconsin. “We will ensure that

Everything considered, the market is holding up better than I thought it would. Nvidia is now down 15% from its all time high of 140.76 as it falls 5.5% today to 119.66. That high was only two trading days ago on Thursday so it’s been a sharp turnaround that started with a textbook bearish engulfing

Prior was -19.4 Details: General business activity -15.1 vs -19.4 priorCompany outlook -6.9 vs -13.4 priorPrices paid +21.5 vs +20.4 priorNew orders -1.3 vs -2.2 priorShipments +2.8 vs -3.0 priorEmployment -2.9 vs -5.3 prior The pricing numbers all ticked higher. Comments in the report are much more negative than the report numbers. Food manufacturing We

Canadian Finance Minister Freeland announced a 30-day consultation on potential tariffs on Chinese-made EVs. They will look at restricting what kinds of vehicles are eligible for Canada’s consumer EV incentives. Canada let so many industries go and told them to ‘learn to code’ but now in a ‘climate emergency’ this is the one they decide

Prior 89.3Current conditions 88.3 vs 88.5 expectedPrior 88.3Expectations 89.0 vs 91.0 expectedPrior 90.4; revised to 90.3 Slight delay in the release by the source. The German business climate declined in June, missing on estimates in all three readings. That’s not a good sign on how economic sentiment is holding up towards the end of Q2.

Belgian business sentiment is a leading indicator but this comes after the German Ifo reading earlier today. It fell to 88.6 from 89.3. This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

Tonight’s tracking poll from Le Figaro paints a worsening picture for Emmanuel Macron’s centralist alliance as voters split left and right. The far right now has 36% of the vote and the left popular front is up to 29.5%. Macron’s camp has lost 1.5% since the pol on Thursday and sits at 20.5%. French stocks

Fundamental Overview Despite good data on the inflation and growth front, Bitcoin couldn’t find a sustained bid amid the generally positive risk sentiment. There was no real catalyst for the drop other than a key technical support getting breached. We got a quick drop into a key support zone today which will likely attract more

Fundamental Overview The USD last week finished slightly positive but overall, it was a pretty flat week. We got some great US PMIs on Friday which showed growth without inflationary pressures. In fact, despite the strong PMIs the market pricing for interest rates remained unchanged. That should be positive for risk sentiment for the time

We continue to think we don’t need a large rise in the jobless rate to get inflation to targetThere is room to grow and add jobs even as inflation moves closer to 2%Signs of financial stress are particularly evident among rentersWe can’t rule out bumps but increasingly we look to be on our way to

Rate cuts by year-end Fed: 47.5 bps (90% chance of no change at the next meeting) ECB: 47.7 bps (68% chance of no change at the next meeting) BoE: 47.6 bps (50% chance of rate cut at the next meeting) BoC: 54.4 bps (71% chance of rate cut at the next meeting) RBA: 6.7 bps

The US dollar is under broad pressure as New York ramps up this week. It’s not clear what is behind the dollar softness. The bond market is quiet and stocks are modestly bid. Fundamental news has been minimal and the comments from Goolsbee weren’t particularly dovish (at least by his standards). Fed pricing is steady

Earlier today I had a great chat with Dale Pinkert from Forex Analytix Highlights: Early look? What Bitcoin and cyclicals are telling us about the economy. Canadian Dollar Outlook: Why I’m bearish and worried about the long term AI and Technology: What will be the scale of job losses from AI and how will central

Highlights what ‘seems to be a cooling of consumer spending’It’s worth wondering where we are on our restrictiveness scaleIf we get more ‘months’ like the last one on inflation, coupled with more weakening data then you have to start questioning where we should be on ratesOptimistic we’ll see improvement in inflation dataHopeful that Fed will

German DAX futures flatUK FTSE futures -0.1% This mirrors the mood in US futures, which are also keeping flattish as we look to the session ahead. For European stocks, just be wary that political woes might factor in again with the first round of the French election coming up on 30 June. This article was

European equities continue to recover some of the political selling as we near voting this weekend in the first round of the French election. Stoxx 600 +0.8%German DAX +1.0%UK FTSE 100 +0.7%French CAC +1.1%Italy MIB +1.6%Spain IBEX +1.3% This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

Nvidia is trading down 2.3% ahead of the open, trading at $123.67. That comes after a reversal lower from an all-time high on Thursday and a further decline on Friday despite a flat day for stocks overall. Where is it headed? If we take the last leg of the move, a minimum target would be

Fundamental Overview The USD last week finished slightly positive but overall, it was a pretty flat week. We got some great US PMIs on Friday which showed growth without inflationary pressures. In fact, despite the strong PMIs the market pricing for interest rates remained unchanged. That should be positive for risk sentiment for the time

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The report should give us a better understanding of what the board members were thinking. In June, the BoJ decided to keep its short-term policy rate steady at 0.0%-0.1%, which was expected. But they threw a curveball by not starting to taper their bond purchases as some had anticipated. Instead, they decided to stick with

Introduction: Mapping the Day’s Market Movements Today’s stock market presents a varied landscape of gains and losses across different sectors. A closer look at the market’s heatmap reveals significant trends that could shape investment strategies in the short term. Sector Overview Semiconductors: The semiconductor sector is notably struggling, with NVDA taking a sharp decline of

On Monday, the economic calendar is relatively light. In Canada, BoC Governor Macklem will deliver a speech titled “Workers, Jobs, Growth, and Inflation—Today and Tomorrow” at the Winnipeg Chamber of Commerce. Tuesday brings inflation data for Canada, as well as the CB consumer confidence and the Richmond manufacturing index for the U.S. On Wednesday, attention

US stocks are modestly lower in the early going with tech lagging on a 2.8% decline in Nvidia. S&P 500 down 0.1%Nasdaq down 0.4%DJIA +0.2%Russell 2000 +0.1% This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

There are a couple to take note of on the day, as highlighted in bold. The first ones are for EUR/USD at 1.0690-00 and that is likely to keep price action more contained in the session ahead. There isn’t much else to work with to start the week, so that should see a more muted

Prior -33 Manufacturing orders in the UK fell again in June but at a slower pace as compared to May at least. The balance for manufacturing output expectations also increased to 13 from 7 previously, marking the highest since October last year. CBI notes that the readings are “encouraging” and that the recovery should “broaden

Headlines: The nerves are starting to show again in USD/JPYWhat are the main events for today?Weekly update on interest rates expectationsGermany June Ifo business climate index 88.6 vs 89.7 expectedUK June CBI trends total orders -18 vs -25 expectedSNB total sight deposits w.e. 21 June CHF 451.8 bn vs CHF 453.5 bn priorChina calls for

Bitcoin is trading at the lowest since mid-May after a dump in Europe that’s only been held up by bids in the $60,600 zone. First of all, bitcoin is very technical and the inability to break $72,000 and instead forming a top is worrisome. If we break $60,000 and possibly $57,000, that would leave an

Equity futures are seeing some pressure across the board this morning, but catalysts for the move is very thin right now. Worth noting it’s bound to be a messy week with month-end flows in the mix, as well as market’s attention shifting towards political risks with the French election coming up on Sunday as well

Chicago Fed President Austin Goolsbee will speak on CNBC at the bottom of the hour. In his latest comments, he called the May CPI number ‘excellent’ and that you can’t help but be optimistic if you look at the long view. This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

Fundamental Overview The USD last week finished slightly positive but overall, it was a pretty flat week. We got some great US PMIs on Friday which showed growth without inflationary pressures. In fact, despite the strong PMIs the market pricing for interest rates remained unchanged. That should be positive for risk sentiment for the time

If you want a fantastic rundown of what the USD/CNY midpoint is look no further than the daily updates from Eamonn here. This article was written by Arno V Venter at www.forexlive.com.

For some context, the EU is set to impose provisional tariffs of up to 38.1% on imported Chinese-made EVs starting from 4 July. This has caused quite a stir between the bloc and China in the past week or so. But over the weekend, there was a call between EU commissioner Dombrovskis and China’s commerce

It may be a quieter start to the new week but this is one to watch where the action can pick up quickly. After having intervened in late April, Japanese officials are being put into the spotlight again now. Are they going to step in at the 160.00 mark once more? Or are they going

Domestic sight deposits CHF 443.4 bn vs CHF 445.3 bn prior Swiss sight deposits fell again in the past week but the SNB messaging here kind of overrides the data, at least for now. We’ll see how the trend develops further in the weeks ahead to have a better idea of what might be happening

This is the sort of nervous price action that we also saw previously when getting close to intervention territory. The pair just took a quick dip from 159.60 to 158.75 before holding around 159.15-30 levels again. In the run up to the last intervention, there were also jerky price movements such as this during the

It’s still early in the session, but so far the USD and CHF is leading the majors on the upside, while the NZD and JPY has been the weakest. Catalysts remain thin for now and liquidity thin so worth keeping that in mind. This article was written by Arno V Venter at www.forexlive.com.

Heading into the UK general election, risk premiums seems on the low side. Even though 1-month risk reversals for GBPUSD has pushed lower, the recent fall has more to do with political risk in France as well as the BoE’s policy decision. It would seem that markets are surprisingly calm with pricing in risk for

• NZ credit card spending YY 0.0% vs -0.6% prior This article was written by Arno V Venter at www.forexlive.com.

Today, there’s no real market moving event on the agenda. In the European session we will hear from Fed’s Waller and get to see the latest German IFO data. In the American session, there will be just the Dallas Fed Manufacturing Index, and ECB’s Schnabel and Fed’s Daly speaking. The price action should be influenced

Eurostoxx +0.1%Germany DAX +0.1%France CAC 40 +0.2%UK FTSE -0.1%Spain IBEX +0.4%Italy FTSE MIB +0.4% French stocks bounced back a little last week but will stay under scrutiny in the week ahead, with the first round of the election coming up on 30 June. As for the overall risk mood, it is mostly steadier with US

It’s been a quiet start to the week for Asia-Pac, with very little market-moving news and very little price action to get excited about. Equities: futures started the week on the softer side with marginal downside seen in equity futures (mostly across the board), but have since regained some composure albeit we are still down

I know we are all tired of intervention headlines, but with USDJPY approaching 160 again we need to keep it in mind as a volatility risk. The recent intervention kicked in around the 160.20 level, so traders will be eyeing this closely in the sessions ahead. As always, there is no guarantee that we see

Things are moving slower to start the new week, with major currencies keeping in tight ranges. But if anything else, do keep an eye out for USD/JPY as it continues to track towards the 160.00 threshold again. That might prompt Japanese authorities to intervene to lock down further yen depreciation, at least for now. After

Justice Department has until July 7th to decide whether to go ahead with prosecutionJustice department’s findings is that the company breached a 2021 agreement that shielded it from fraud chargesRelatives of the victims are urging the prosecutors to seek for a $25 billion fine as well as criminal prosecution Source: reuters This article was written

It’s a very quiet start to the week on the economic data side. • BoJ’s summary of opinions due at 00:50 BST / 19:50 ET. • German Ifo data due at 09:00 BST / 04:00 ET. • US Dallas Fed Mfg Index due at 15:30 BST / 10:30 ET. However, after the recent flurry of

Japan FinMin Suzuki: Won’t comment on forex levels.Japan FinMin Suzuki: Desirable for currencies to move in stable manner reflecting fundamentals.Japan FinMin Suzuki: Excessive FX change undesirable.Japan FinMin Suzuki: Want to respond appropriately as needed.Japan FinMin Suzuki says no comment, when asked if current FX moves are excessive. This article was written by Arno V Venter

South Korea, US, Japan strongly condemn deepening North Korea, Russia military cooperation – South Korea Foreign Ministry.South Korea, US, Japan say Putin’s visit to North Korea triggered grave concern – South Korea Foreign MinistrySouth Korea, U.S., Japan say they will further strengthen security cooperation to counter threats by North Korea – South Korea Foreign Ministry.

PBoC injects 50 billion Yuan via 7-day reverse reposSets 7-day reverse repo rate at 1.8% vs 1.8% prior This article was written by Arno V Venter at www.forexlive.com.

The USDCNH has continued to grind higher as capital outflows from China ramps up. According to Reuters, foreigners has pulled $4.54B this month via the stock connect scheme. We are approaching pervious ‘max pain’ levels for the PBoC between 7.36-37 where we saw previous attempts to curb Yuan losses. For now the move higher has

Despite a solid US Flash PMI print on Friday, money market bets for the Fed wasn’t much changed. Expectations into the data was for around 47 basis points of easing by year-end, and expectations stayed very close to that despite the beat. It’s important to keep in mind that there has been a disconnect between

Won’t comment on daily forex levels.Will take appropriate steps if there is excessive forex move.No impact at all from U.S. report on forex monitoring.US govt suggests there is no problem in Japan’s forex intervention.Don’t have specific forex level in mind.Will respond to rapid forex moves by speculators.Won’t comment if recent forex moves are excessive This

BOJ June meeting summary of opinions: One member said BOJ expected to raise interest rate if underlying inflation rises as projected.BOJ June summary: One member said given chance of upside risk to inflation, must consider further adjustment to degree of monetary easingBOJ June summary: One member said must raise interest rate in timely fashion without

Below is an extract from Eamonn’s handy posts regarding the midpoint setting, and here is some further explanation of what it is and how it works. The People’s Bank of China set the onshore yuan (CNY) reference rate for the trading session ahead. USD/CNY is the onshore yuan. Its permitted to trade plus or minus

• NZ exports May 2024 7.16B vs 6.42B • NZ imports May 2024 6.95B vs 6.32B • NZ trade balance May 2024 204M vs 91.0M This article was written by Arno V Venter at www.forexlive.com.

Welcome to another trading week. Hope you all had a great weekend and is ready to get the show on the road. As usual, early Asia-Pac trading means thinner liquidity and lower volumes so always keep that in mind. For now, exchange rates for major FX pairs are as follows: EUR/USD 1.0688USD/JPY 159.79GBP/USD 1.2631USD/CHF 0.8934USD/CAD

UPCOMING EVENTS: Monday: BoJ Summary of Opinions, German IFO.Tuesday: Canada CPI, US Consumer Confidence.Wednesday: Australia Monthly CPI.Thursday: Japan Retail Sales, US Durable Goods Orders, US Final Q1 GDP, US Jobless Claims.Friday: Tokyo CPI, UK Final Q1 GDP, Canada GDP, US PCE, University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment (final). Tuesday The Canadian CPI Y/Y is expected at

Week Ahead 24-28th June: Mon: BoJ Summary of Opinions, German Ifo Survey (Jun), German Import Prices (May) Tue: Japanese Services PPI (May), Canadian CPI (May), UK GDP (Q1) Wed: Australian CPI (May), German GfK Consumer Sentiment Thu: Biden/Trump debate on CNN, Riksbank Announcement, CBRT Announcement, CNB Announcement, European Council, Chinese Industrial Profits YTD (May), EZ

It was quad witching in the equity market and that played a big role in today’s trading. S&P 500 down 0.2%Nasdaq Comp down 0.2%Russell 2000 up 0.2%DJIA flatToronto TSX Comp down 0.1% On the week: S&P 500 +0.6%Nasdaq flatDJIA +1.4% The candle on the Nasdaq could be nothing or it could be something, especially with

Mon, Jun 24, 3 AM ET. USD: FOMC member Waller speakingMon, Jun 24, 1:45pm CAD: BOC Gov Macklem Speaks Tuesday June 25 Tue, Jun 25, 8:30am CAD: CPI m/m (Estimate: 0.3%, Previous: 0.5%), Median CPI y/y (Estimate: 2.6%, Previous: 2.6%),Trimmed CPI y/y (Estimate: 2.8%, Previous: 2.9%)Tue, Jun 25, 10:00am USD: CB Consumer Confidence (Estimate: 100.2,

US equities finish the week on a soft noteKey Events and Releases to Watch Next Week in TradingGold rally proves short-lived as it falls $40MUFG: BOJ likely to raise rates next month, MOF under pressure to interveneBaker Hughes oil rig count -3 to 485European equity close: Soft finish but a better weekUS May existing home

Today’s outside reversal lower in gold prices rekindles some worries on the chart. Gold has looked to be forming a head-and-shoulders top over the past two months in a move that would target $2150. However yesterday the bulls made a move and tried to take out the late-May highs. That failed through and today the

German DAX futures flatUK FTSE futures +0.1% Risk sentiment is more muted as we look towards the start of European trading today. Regional indices are seeing a modest rebound this week after political woes weighed on the mood last week. The CAC 40 is up by over 2% on the week as of yesterday but

The Bank of Japan meeting in June produced the commitment to trim back JGB buying from the following, July, meeting: Will decide on specific bond buying reduction plan for the next 1-2 years at next policy meeting.BOJ governor Ueda says will begin tapering bond purchases immediately after July meeting On Monday we’ll get more detail

Oil rigs -3 at 485Natural gas rigs unchanged at 98Total rigs -2 at 588 The price of crude oil is trading at $80.55 it’s down $0.72 or -0.89% on the day This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

As the clock ticks to the end of the trading week, the USDCAD has moved higher after reaching a new low for the week earlier in the trading day. On the way to the low, the price did move back below its 200 bar moving average on the 4-hour chart at 1.3687. It also fell

Fuji News Network (FNN) citing Prime Minister Kishida: to resume utility subsidiesto maintain gasoline subsidies Also, via NHK: Japan’s government is in the final preparation stage to adopt additionnal steps to ease the burden of higher electricity and gas prices USD/JPY is off from its earlier highs: This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at

MUFG highlights the yen’s recent weakening trend and anticipates the Bank of Japan (BoJ) raising rates at next month’s meeting. Concurrently, the Ministry of Finance (MoF) faces increased pressure to intervene in the currency markets to prevent the yen from further depreciation beyond critical levels. Key Points: Yen Weakness and Intervention Reversal: USD/JPY has risen

The subtle dovish hints by the BOE yesterday was enough to pin the pair down, erasing the gains from earlier in the week. That is putting cable near where it left off on Friday but with the low today having tested the 100-day moving average (red line) of 1.2638. That alongside the 61.8 Fib retracement

The S&P index and in the NASDAQ and a are now trading in positive territory and at highs for the day: The NASDAQ is leading the way with a gain of 50 points or 0.28% at 17770.44. The S&P index is up 2.23 points or 0.04% of 5475.42. For the trading week, both indices are

The US is determined to dominate semiconductors and not allow China to catch up. New proposed rules restrict US investment in key sectorsRules ban certain investments in design, automation, fabrication and advanced packaging toolsQuantum computers and AI also targeted Proposes notification requirements for all other investments in Chinese AI system development The US is going

Closing changes in the main European bourses: Stoxx 600 -0.6%German DAX -0.35%UK FTSE 100 -0.4%French CAC -0.4%Italy MIB -0.9%Spain IBEX -1.0% On the week: Stoxx 600 +0.9%German DAX +1.1%UK FTSE 100 +1.6%French CAC +1.8%Italy MIB +2.1%Spain IBEX +0.5% These are some nice weekly numbers but they come after a battering on political worries. This article

USD/JPY bulls are playing with fire. The pair is up for a seventh straight day after a surprisingly strong US services PMI. The reading of 55.1 is a 26-month high and well above the 53.7 consensus. The report sparked broad US dollar buying and has pushed USD/JPY closer to the 160.00 line in the sand.

The drop today brings us back to where we were on Friday, testing the waters below the 1.0700 mark. The close at the end of last week was just above the figure level, so that will be one to watch again today to see if sellers can find more conviction for a break under. For

Prior was 4.10mInventory at 3.7 months vs 3.5m priorMedian price +5.8% from May 2023 at $419.3KSales down 0.7% m/m This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

Bullard is the previous President of the St. Louis Fed: US economy remains strongExpects slow rate cut pace I’m not sure of the event Bullard was speaking at. While the US economy is beginning to show signs of slowing a touch, it does remain robust. And the latest signals from Fed officials is for a

Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond President Thomas Barkin: wants to see clearer signs of falling inflation before a rate cutsays the Federal Reserve is positioned well, has necessary tools for the jobthe flow of data will determine further moves after the first rate cut This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

The dollar continues to keep somewhat resilient on the week, with major currencies not showing too much appetite. USD/JPY remains a standout though, as the pair climbs to 159.00 – its highest level since Japan intervened on 29 April. No stopping traders from dancing to the beat there. In other markets, European equities bounced back

The GBPJPY has been on an upward trend this week, but it turned lower during the European session following weaker-than-expected flash PMI data. The price dropped below its 100-hour moving average (blue line on the chart above at 200.77) but found support near the 200-hour moving average and the lower boundary of a swing area

Prior 99Manufacturing confidence 99Prior 99Services confidence 101Prior 101; revised to 102 The French business climate remains steady in June, keeping just under its long-term average of 100. The services reading was marginally lower on the month while manufacturing is seen unchanged from May. Of note, employment conditions did ease a touch though with the reading

Prior was -0.2%Ex autos +1.8% vs +0.7% expectedEx autos and gasoline +1.4%Motor vehicle and parts dealers -2.2%Food and beverage retailers +1.9%, led by grocery storesAlberta +3.1%, Ontario -1.0% with Toronto sales -2.5% (Toronto is weakest housing market right now)Preliminary May data -0.6% m/m Yesterday, RBC reported a slump in Canadian discretionary spending in May so

Today’s snapshot of the US stock market Today’s trading session highlighted a distinct divergence in market sector performance, with technology generally outpacing other areas, although noteworthy declines were observed in the semiconductor subsector. 📉 Semiconductor Sector Analysis A significant red zone in today’s heatmap is unmistakably the semiconductor sector, led by a sharp 3.04% fall

The AUDUSD this week traded down to test a swing area between 0.6575 and 0.6590. The subsequent move to the upside then tested the high of a swing area between 0.6677 and 0.66896 (see the chart below). Staying with the confines of the “red box” where most of the trading has taken place over the

Prior was 54.8Manufacturing vs 51.0 expectedPrior manufacturing was 51.3 This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

The responsibility lies entirely with the EU sideHopes that EU would meet China halfway and handle differences through dialogue For some context, the EU launched five new anti-dumping investigations against China in May. That was seen totaling to roughly $1.71 billion. And they are following that up with proposed tariffs on Chinese electric cars. If

Headlines: Japanese yen stays in focus as inflation data slows further in MayEuro, yields dip on softer French and German PMI readingsFrance June flash services PMI 48.8 vs 50.0 expectedGermany June flash manufacturing PMI 43.4 vs 46.4 expectedEurozone June flash services PMI 52.6 vs 53.5 expectedUK June flash services PMI 51.2 vs 53.0 expectedUK May

Good morning, afternoon and evening all. Any charts, technical analysis, trade ideas, thoughts, views, ForexLive traders would like to share and discuss with fellow ForexLive traders, please do so: This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

Prior -2.3%; revised to -1.8%Retail sales +1.3% vs -0.9% y/y expectedPrior -2.7%; revised to -2.3%Retail sales (ex autos, fuel) +2.9% vs +1.3% m/m expectedPrior -2.0%; revised to -1.4%Retail sales (ex autos, fuel) +1.2% vs -0.8% y/y expectedPrior -3.0%; revised to -2.5% After many months of disappointment, UK retail sales finally comes up with a beat

There are a couple to take note of on the day, as highlighted in bold. The first ones are for EUR/USD at 1.0650-60 and the 1.0700 mark. Both should play the role in limiting any material downside before the expiries roll off later today. But given how price action has been behaving, the one at

A note via JP Morgan says less short selling, combined with short covering, has been a factor fuelling the run for stocks, a “steady flow of support”. JPM nominate one support for the US equity market over the past 12 months has originated from a fall in short interest on the two biggest equity ETFs,

Japanese economy is recovering moderately, albeit with some weak signsUnderlying inflation likely to gradually accelerateYet to decide on specifics of bond tapering planBut size of reduction in bond purchases likely to be significant For now, it seems like only the bond taper is on the cards for July. There’s no mention of any follow up

Canada kicks of the final trading day of the week with retail sales and PPI data. Then at 9:45 am ET, we get the US manufacturing and services flash PMIs from S&P Global. At 10 am ET, we get existing home sales and at 1 pm ET, there’s 2-year Treasury auction. There are no Fed

The USDJPY has lifted back to the upside and is back above the 159.00 level after the stronger-than-expected S&P/global manufacturing and services index flash data. The high price traded up to 159.206. That gets it to 100 pips short of the 2024 high price at 160.208. That I was the highest level going back to

As the NA session begins the NZD is the strongest and the GBP is the weakest. The USD is mixed. In Japan all hands are on deck to slow the JPYs fall. Overnight,Japan’s officials, including Masato Kanda, Finance Minister Suzuki, and Chief Cabinet Secretary Hayashi, emphasized the need for stable foreign exchange (FX) levels and

RBC is out with its monthly review of Canadian credit card spending. As the nation’s largest bank, the number should offer clues on the strength of the Canadian consumer. The report notes that momentum in discretionary purchases faded in May after a rise in April. restaurant sales edged slightly lower in May and were not

Prior 49.3Manufacturing PMI 45.3 vs 46.8 expectedPrior 46.4Composite PMI 48.2 vs 49.5 expectedPrior 48.9 The readings above are a further setback to the French economy after the softer ones in May already. A renewed downturn in new orders in particular is the main drag for the month. Meanwhile, employment conditions eased to a three-month low

Prior month -0.6%Leading index for May -0.5% versus -0.3% estimate. There have only been one positive reading since April 2022. The data will predict the recession one day. This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

It was always going to be a race against time for the BOJ in the first half of this year. And the inflation data today reaffirms that sentiment, with prices converging further towards the pivotal 2% mark. Where art thou inflation? The headache for the BOJ continues as such. They managed to squeeze in a

Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco President Mary Daly is speaking as part of a panel: “The Transformative Power of AI: How is Technology Changing Our Lives?” in coordination with Syracuse University and the Maxwell School of Citizenship and Public Affairs. The topic doesn’t sound like there will be anything from here on the economy

The July Bank of Canada decision is shifting more-decisively towards a rate cut after today’s softer retail sales and PPI numbers. The market is now pricing in a 73% chance of a back-to-back cut. Retail sales matched the +0.7% estimate for April but the May advance report showed a 0.6% decline and the March reading

In the kickstart video for June 21, I take a look at the three major currency pairs from a technical perspective and explain what the bias is, what the risks are, and what the targets are for each. The EURUSD corrected up to tested 61.8% retracement of the move up from the April low at

Prior 52.9Manufacturing PMI 51.4 vs 51.3 expectedPrior 51.2Composite PMI 51.7 vs 53.1 expectedPrior 53.0 Election jitters starting to creep in? The headline reading is a 7-month low and that is weighing on the overall UK business activity for June. The only bright side is that manufacturing conditions are seen improving further, with the reading there

Prior month 1.5% revised to 1.4%Producer Prices MoM 0.0% vs 0.5% estimateProducer prices YoY 1.8 % vs 1.4% last month revised to 1.3%. This was the biggest year on year increase since January 2023.Raw material prices MoM -1.0% vs 5.5% last month revised to 5.3%. Excluding accrued energy products, the RMPI rose 2.4%Raw material prices

The major US indices are trading little changed ahead of the flash PMI data and the existing home sales. Dow Industrial Average averages up 2.0 points or 0.01% at 39141S&P is down -6.5 points or -0.13% at 5466.06Nasdaq is down -15.48 points or -0.09% at 17706.37 The small-cap Russell 2000 is trading down -4.51 points

US stock futures are fractionally lower but all eyes are on Nvidia today as we hit quad witching. Shares are down 2.9% in the premarket after hitting a record early yesterday and then reversing to finish 3% lower. This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

The Swiss National Bank cut rates by 25 basis points yesterday and that reversed the downward bias that the USDCHF was experiencing going into the rate decision. The subsequent move higher move back above the 38.2% retracement of the move up from the December 2023 low at 0.8883, a swing area between 0.8881 and 0.8892,

Earlier in the session we had Kanda: Japan’s Kanda says ready to take action if excessive FX move seen Hayashi now: Addition of Japan to the US currency monitoring list does not mean that Japan’s foreign exchange policy is a problemStable forex levels are desirableImportant that forex rates reflect fundamentalsWill continue to closely monitor moves

I’m not sure we’ll get too much of impact from this: 1030 GMT / 0630 Bank of Spain Deputy Governor Margarita Delgado to speak at an event in Santander This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

Here are the changes among key dollar pairs on the week as we look to the final day of US trading later: EUR/USD: -0.1%USD/JPY: +0.9%GBP/USD: -0.2%USD/CHF: +0.3%USD/CAD: -0.3%AUD/USD: +0.6%NZD/USD: -0.2% Outside of the Japanese yen and perhaps arguably the aussie, the changes on the week are rather insignificant thus far. The mid-week break also didn’t

Tune in Monday for the Bank of Japan Summary of its June meetingBank of Spain Deputy Governor speaking FridayJapan will resume subsidies for utilites and continue with gasoline subsidiesEx-Fed Bullard says he expects a slow pace of rate cuts from the FOMCNorth Korean soldiers crossed into South Korea again, the third time this month (so

South Korean media (Yonhap) report on the third crossing of North Korean troops into South Korea so far in June. Both previous crossings were said to be unintentional, as was this third. Hard to believe really. North Korean troops working in the Demilitarized Zone (DMZ) briefly crossed the border into the Southcrossed the Military Demarcation

Preliminary Judo Bank S&P Australian Manufacturing PMI 47.5 prior 49.7 Services 51.0 prior 52.5 Composite 50.5 prior 52.1 Wow, what an awful set of numbers. Early 2024 was promising but that’s fallen in a heap now. Warren Hogan, Chief Economic Advisor at Judo Bank this in brief on the employment and inflation aspects: “The composite

There should be leaks and reports to follow after that on how much will the BOJ scale back on their supposed bond purchases. So, keep an eye out for that. The central bank is then expected to officially announce that at their next policy meeting decision on 31 July. This article was written by Justin

Prior 53.2Manufacturing PMI 45.6 vs 47.9 expectedPrior 47.3Composite PMI 50.8 vs 52.5 expectedPrior 52.2 Business activity in the euro area slows sharply towards the end of Q2, with manufacturing continuing to prove to be a drag. The output index there is seen slumping to a six-month low. Meanwhile, the services sector reading also eased but

Prior 45.4Services PMI 53.5 vs 54.4 expectedPrior 54.2Composite PMI 50.6 vs 52.7 expectedPrior 52.4 The euro has dipped to fresh lows on the day amid the softer-than-expected readings in France and now Germany. EUR/USD is down from 1.0705 earlier to 1.0675 on the day. Just take note of large option expiries here at 1.0650-60 that

US Treasury Secretary Yellen: crytocurrency remains a small part of financing for Fentanyl trafficking This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

Leading lights from the world of online trading gathered at Columbia Beach, Limassol, Cyprus to celebrate the best Brokers and B2B brands over the past 12 months as part of the official UF AWARDS Global 2024. The winning companies were congratulated in a special ceremony on June 20, organised by Ultimate Fintech, with each award

EUR/USD has fallen from 1.0705 to 1.0670 levels on the day, following the softer PMI reports from France and Germany. It reinforces the notion that the economic resilience in Q1 may be a short-lived one. And this may put pressure on the ECB to cut rates sooner rather than later in Q3 this year. Looking

People’s Bank of China USD/CNY reference rate is due around 0115 GMT. The People’s Bank of China (PBOC), China’s central bank, is responsible for setting the daily midpoint of the yuan (also known as renminbi or RMB). The PBOC follows a managed floating exchange rate system that allows the value of the yuan to fluctuate

The ‘core-core’ rate of inflation in May (core-core is that excluding food and energy, it’s the closest to the US measure of core inflation) has shown its slowest rise since September 2022. The ‘core’ rate, which excludes fresh food, jumped from April though. This will keep the prospect of the BoJ rate hike alive. A

The People’s Bank of China set the onshore yuan (CNY) reference rate for the trading session ahead. USD/CNY is the onshore yuan. Its permitted to trade plus or minus 2% from this daily reference rate.CNH is the offshore yuan. USD /CNH has no restrictions on its trading range.A significantly stronger or weaker rate than expected

Japan finance minister Suzuki: To visit Seoul on June 25 to meet with s. Korean counterpartWill communicate closely with US, other countries on FX based on G7 agreement that excessive, disorderly fx moves could hurt economiesDon’t think US sees Japan’s fx policy as problematic Suzuki joins in with earlier verbal intervention efforts today: Japan’s Kanda

Trump news crossing on immigration policy If you graduate from a college you should get automatically as part of your diploma a green card to be able to stay in United States Info comes via Reuters. I’m no politics expert but amongst those looking for greater US productivity growth this is going to be a

Slower expansion for Japanese manufacturing expanded for a second straight monthnew orders weakened from May and cost pressures intensified, rising faster than in June Flash services PMI: 49.8 in June from 53.8 in May Composite 50.0 prior 52.6 This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

Masato Kanda is vice-minister for international affairs at Japan’s Ministry of Finance. He is the official who will instruct the BOJ to intervene, when he judges it necessary, and is often referred to as Japan’s ‘top currency diplomat’. US exchange rate list assessed against mechanical criteriaReady to take actions if excess fx move seenFx intervention

The GBPUSD fell earlier today. The BOE kept their policy rate unchanged today. However, as Justin pointed out in his posts after the decision, the Bank of England’s latest statement includes subtle dovish hints suggesting potential rate cuts in the near future. In the forward guidance, the BOE added, “As part of the August forecast

US Treasury Secretary Yellen spoke On Thursday. In her remarks were comments on inflation and China. Yellen firmly stepping into election territory here: Biden understands struggles of American households with higher costs for housing, basic necessitiesBiden wants to cut taxes for hardworking families through expansion of child tax creditBiden has made affordability a top priority

USD/CNH and USD/CNY have risen again overnight. The background to the weaker yuan is that the People’s Bank of China has loosened up on dampening USD/CNY, we had a warning of this on Monday: HSBC expect the USD/CNY reference rate to drift higher (yuan weaker) And since then the Bank have indeed allowed the CNY

US May housing starts 1.277m vs 1.370m expectedUS initial jobless claims 238K vs 235k estimateUS June Philly Fed +1.3 vs +5.0 expectedUS sells 5-year TIPS at 2.050%France election poll: National Rally leading, Macron lags behindWhite House’s Brainard: There is every reason to expect further inflation progressEIA weekly crude oil inventories -2547K vs -2200K expectedAtlanta Fed

Bank of America forecasts for EUR/USD: 1.12 at the end of 20241.17 at the end of 2025 (from previously projecting 1.20)1.20 in 2026 BoA citing: Federal Reserve to cut, but more gradually than previously thoughtSay that with persistent inflation it’ll be a shallow easing cycle Despite the timing of its EUR/USD forecast B of A

This from the US Treasury twice yearly currency manipulation report Found that no major US trading partner manipulated currency to gain unfair trade advantage in four quarters through December 2023Found no major trading partner met criteria for enhanced analysis in four quarters ending December 2023Monitoring list of trading partners whose currency practices ‘merit close attention’

Ontario Premier Doug Ford was in the news on Thursday calling on the federal government to place a 100% tariff on electric vehicles manufactured in China. Ford warned that not doing so places jobs at “risk” in Ontario. – Ford may have been playing a bit of politics, the Canadian govmt has such tariffs under

The Nasdaq string of up days is over at 7-days. Over that 7-days, the price has closed at record levels each day. The decline today is the worst day since May 30. Meanwhile, the Dow rose for the 3rd day in a row with a solid gain of 300 points. It was its strongest day

Tokyo inflation data the focus. USD/JPY has continued its rise, this gave it a little tailwind yesterday: Japan survey of firms – very few believe wage growth quicker than inflation achievable But it was heading higher regardless. Evan Kanda couldn’t stop it: Japan top currency diplomat says there is no limit to FX intervention resources

Thursday was the sixth-consecutive day of Japanese yen selling and it ended with a flourish. It left the US dollar higher by 83 pips against the yen to 158.91. That’s only higher than a few hours on April 29 when the pair broke 160.00 in a rout before the Japanese Ministry of Finance intervened in

Crude oil for August settled up $0.58 at $81.29. That’s up $0.58 or 0.71% Today, EIA weekly inventory data showed Crude oil stocks had a drawdown of-2.547M versus expectations of a drawdown of -2.200 million barrelsGasoline stocks had a surprise drawdown of -2.280 million versus expectations of a build of 0.620 million barrelsDistilates showed a

Bank of America is out with a survey of wealthy investors but they divided them into two cohorts: Ages 21-43 and age 44+. The results are shockingly different. Young investors see real estate and crypto as top opportunities, while U.S. stocks rank lowest. A striking 72% of them believe it’s impossible to achieve above-average returns

Swiss franc has significantly increased in past few weeksUnderlying inflation pressure has decreasedWe will continue to monitor developments closely, adjust policy if necessaryWilling to be active in foreign exchange markets as necessary The comment on the franc having “significantly increased” does change things up a bit. That perhaps says they are comfortable with the currency

According to a Harris interactive poll on the France election: Far-right National Rally (RN) party seen leading first round of French Parliament election with 220-250 seats.Left Wing New Popular Front (NFP) coalition seen in second place of French election with 135-165 seats.Macron’s ‘Together’ centrist camp seen in third place of French election with 95-130 seats.Conservative

In the bigger picture, gold is very much still in a consolidative mood. The price action this week is supported by the news that central banks are still intending to bolster their gold reserves in the long run. That is keeping slightly more underpinned in the last few sessions. However, the chart still outlines a

The AUDUSD earlier this week tested the low of what has been a fairly confined trading range between 0.6575 AND 0.66896 (see red box on the chart below), and then tested the high of that swing area both yesterday and today. So traders continue to trade the range by leaning on the downside and on

This data was delayed because of the US holiday yesterday. WTI crude oil was trading 60-cents higher ahead of the release. The consensus is: Prior was +3730K Gasoline -2280K vs +620K expectedDistillates -1726K vs +261K expectedProduction unchanged at 13.2 mbpdRefinery utilization -1.5% vs +0.1% expected Tuesday’s API reading was surprisingly bearish, though the market has

The unchanged rates were widely expected after the MLF was unchanged earlier this week: People’s Bank of China set MLF rate at 2.5% (expected 2.5%, prior 2.5%) The hold today is despite subdued economic data and widespread expectations that the Bank will be forced to cut rates at some stage. A critical constraint on the

The broader US stock indices have now moved into negative territory and traded two new session lows. The S&P is down -18 points are -0.33% at 5469. The NASDAQ and is down -133 pointer -0.74% at 17729. Nvidia shares are now negative by $2.26 or -1.59% $133.38.Apple shares are down by $4.45 or -2.08% at

The American consumer isn’t tapped out yet. United Airlines said it expects more than 5 million Americans to fly over the July 4 holiday, in what would be a record for travel in the period. That’s a good sign for the health of consumer wallets and for jet fuel demand. UAL also says it expects

Fundamental Overview The USD has been generally weaker this week after the strength seen last week due to some risk off sentiment. In fact, it looks like it’s just sentiment that’s been driving the market recently as fundamentally the soft US inflation figures just consolidated the market’s expectation of two cuts for this year despite

Prior was 2.242% This is 2.4 bps below the when-issued yield. The strong auctions are beginning to add up. The bond market took notice of this auction with Treasury yields ticking lower across the curve to stem some of today’s rise. This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

Fundamental Overview Gold has been ranging near a key level as the market awaits a catalyst or key technical breakouts to find some momentum. The bullish bias remains intact though as we got some very good inflation data from the CPI and PPI last week which should support gold in the bigger picture as it

USD/JPY has risen for six straight trading days and is up another 64 pips today to the highest levels since the April 28 spike higher and intervention. A close here would be the highest since 1990. There are about Japanese banks after Norinchukin Bank said it will sell $63 billion of sovereign bonds, mostly Treasuries

The USDJPY is extending to a new high for the day. The move higher today took the price above the swing highs from earlier this week and last Friday near 158.248. After reaching a high at 158.46. The price rotated back lower, tested the break level at 158.248 and found support buyers (red numbered circle

Closing changes in the main European bourses: Stoxx 600 +0.8%German DAX +0.9%UK FTSE 100 +0.7%French CAC +1.3%Italy MIB +1.4%Spain IBEX +0.9% The volume has come down in European politics and there have been dip buyers for most of the week in French stocks. This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

The USDCAD has moved lower in trading today, and in the price process moved back below the 100 bar MA on the 4-hour chart (at 1.37079 currently – blue line on the chart below). The price has moved down to test the 200 bar MA on the 4-hour chart at 1.3687. The 38.2% of the

Wage growth might still be a bit too high to get back to 2% right now The market is pricing in 47 bps in cuts before year end. This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

Gold is trading at the highest since the June 7 drop. The chart looked to be teeing up a a head-and-shoulders top but the bulls have fought back and a rise above $2387 would help to invalidate it. The turn this week may have come after a World Gold Council survey showing that 29% of

As the North American session begins the AUD is the strongest and the CHF is the weakest. The USD is mostly stronger with declines only vs the AUD. The Swiss National Bank (SNB) lowered its key policy rate by 25 basis points, bringing it down to 1.25% from the previous 1.50%. This decision, announced as

The USDCHF moved lower earlier this week, breaking below its 200 day moving average and 38.2% retracement of the move up from the December 2023 low. Those levels come in at 0.88958 and 0.8883 respectively. Today, the Swiss National Bank cut rates by 25 basis points which was a tossup. That sent the USDCHF higher

Introduction Today’s stock market presents a dynamic ballet of sector performances, signified by prominent growth in tech and healthcare amidst minor slumps in consumer electronics. Our deep dive into the heatmap shows how different sectors tell their own stories, shaping investor sentiment and future market endeavors. Tech Triumphs, Semiconductor Woes The Tech sector shows a

Prior +0.2% Slight delay in the release by the source. If you strip out energy prices, producer prices were actually higher by 0.3% compared to April. The breakdown shows that an increase in prices for intermediate goods (+0.3%), capital goods (+0.2%), and non-durable consumer goods (+0.1%). That is offset by a decline in energy prices

The flow funds in the US stock market has shifted. Earlier the Dow was lower, the NASDAQ was higher, the S&P was in the middle. Currently the Dow Industrial Average average is higher, the S&P is near unchanged and the NASDAQ has turned into negative territory. The NASDAQ index has closed higher for seven consecutive

There is not enough progress on healthcare and housing pricesThe aberrations in Q1 inflation haven’t stretched into Q2 I take these comments with a grain of salt, as she’s not exactly an unbiased voice now. However the comment about the ‘aberration’ in particular shows how some in the Fed are seeing inflation, or how they

What is a catalyst? A trading catalyst is anything that causes a market reaction. The most common catalysts come from the economic data. In fact, you may have seen countless times the market reacting to an economic report and sometimes the moves can be very large. Types of catalysts There are generally two types of

US Q1 current account -237.6B vs. -206.4B expected and -221.8B prior (revised from -194.8B). This is not a market moving report. This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at www.forexlive.com.

We’re counting down the final days of Q2 but we’re still a long ways away from the first reading on GDP. Still, the tracking numbers from the Atlanta Fed are strong right now and that could keep the Fed on the sidelines in September. The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual

In the kickstart video for June 20, 2024, I take a technical look at the 3 major currency pairs – the EURUSD, USDJPY and GBPUSD. EURUSD: The EURUSD held resistance against the 200 hour MA yesterday and again today. That moving average currently comes in at 1.0743. Stay below that level keeps the sellers more

German DAX futures +0.2%UK FTSE futures +0.2% This follows the sluggish showing yesterday with French stocks in particular sliding back. For today, the overall mood is a better one with S&P 500 futures seen up 0.3% after the mid-week break. This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

Headlines: BOE leaves bank rate unchanged at 5.25%, as expectedAugust back in the picture for the BOE?SNB cuts key policy rate by 25 bps to 1.25% from 1.50% previouslySNB chairman Jordan: FX intervention can be in both directionsSwiss franc falls as SNB continues with rate cutsECB’s Knot: Optimal policy path is broadly in line with

Prior 1.50%Ready to intervene in FX market if needed and as necessaryA renewed increase in geopolitical tensions could result in weaker global activityAble to maintain appropriate monetary conditions as suchWill adjust monetary policy if necessary to ensure inflation remains within the range consistent with price stability over the medium-termInflation in Switzerland is currently being driven

The People’s Bank of China set the onshore yuan (CNY) reference rate for the trading session ahead. USD/CNY is the onshore yuan. Its permitted to trade plus or minus 2% from this daily reference rate.CNH is the offshore yuan. USD /CNH has no restrictions on its trading range.A significantly stronger or weaker rate than expected

There has been appreciation in the Swiss francThat has an impact on monetary conditionsExchange rate plays a very important role as it influences inflation outlookWill adjust policy rate to ensure inflation stays in the range of price stability The fact that he continues to allude to the franc having appreciated should be a signal that

There are signs of cyclical weakening in the global economy but OPEC+ appears to have countered it by keeping production curtailed. US producers also haven’t rushed to fill the gap as they will have to contend with OPEC’s plan to slowly re-introduce barrels in the year ahead. That’s led to an impressive climb in oil

Good luck to the folks in Ecuador! Minister Roberto Luque: a transmission line failure caused a “cascade disconnection” “We are concentrating all our efforts on resolving the problem as quickly as possible” This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

It looks like Barkin may have the most interesting comments given the topic. Times below are in GMT/US Eastern time format 1245/0845 Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis President Neel Kashkari participates in a fireside chat before the Michigan Bankers Association Annual Conference From Kashkari earlier: Fed’s Kashkari says its reasonable that rate cut could come

Prior week 242KInitial jobless claims 238K vs 235K estimate4-week moving averege 232.75K vs 227.25K last weekContinuing Claims 1.828M vs 1.805M estimatePrior week continuing claims 1.820M revised to 1.813M4-week Moving average for continuing claims 1.806M vs 1.795M last week The claims data is for the survey week and as such is higher than the prior month.

Consumer confidence -14.0 vs. -13.6 expected and -14.3 prior. This is not a market moving report but consumer confidence has been gradually improving since the lows set in 2022. This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at www.forexlive.com.

Even if this was the “expected” decision, the feel of the market was that it was closer to a coin flip. That explains the reaction in the Swiss franc, with the SNB also sticking with a more dovish stance overall. The Swiss central bank signaled that inflation is easing further, having lowered their projections on

The major US stock indices are trading mixed nine minutes into the opening, with all three indices lower than premarket levels. A snapshot of the market currently shows: Dow Industrial Average down -20.90 points or -0.05% at 38813.97 S&P index is trading up +10. or or +0.18% at 5497.03. NASDAQ and is trading up 48.03

Fundamental Overview The USD has been generally weaker this week after the strength seen last week due to some risk off sentiment. In fact, it looks like it’s just sentiment that’s been driving the market recently as the soft US inflation figures just consolidated the market’s expectation of two cuts for this year despite a

Earlier this week, Nvidia became the world’s most valuable company as it crossed a $3.3 trillion valuation. It’s up 82% from the April 19 low in what’s the greatest increase in wealth in a single stock in the history of markets. It truly is a marvel and for a company that doesn’t even manufacture the

Surface temperatures are above average in the west-central Pacific oceanLa Nina watch now in effect, favored to develop during July-Sept (65% chance) and persist into winter 2024-25Temp outlook favors enhanced probabilities of above normal temp reaching 60-70% are found over the Gulf coast We are just out of the warmer El Nino phase and now

There is a hiccup on the data calendar, this was out earlier in the week so just clarifying that: Westpac McDermott Miller consumer sentiment survey for the second quarter of 2024 — You’ll not next up from NZ is the economic growth data for Q1, quickie preview here, along with another for the PBOC rate

Prior was 1.360mBuilding permits vs 1.450m expected This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

Prior was +4.5Employment: -2.5 vs -10.7 priorNew orders: -2.2 vs +12.2 priorPrices paid: +22.5 vs +23.0 priorPrices received: vs +5.5 priorShipments: vs +19.1 priorUnfilled orders: vs +0.8 priorDelivery times: vs -9.4 priorInventories: vs -8.9 priorAvg employee workweek: vs -18.7 prior The prior reading was a jump to a two-year high so a retracement here isn’t

There is strong case for using projection meetings to recalibrate policy stanceHigh uncertainty warrants a data-dependent approachDisinflation process remains bumpyNot all the signs are green yet when it comes to core inflationRecent shift in market expectations shows that the road to meet inflation target is bumpyWe can look through small deviations from target as long

The excitement around artificial intelligence is beginning to resemble the California gold rush; only now are companies, not individuals, chasing the new El Dorado. Representatives of all industries seem determined to incorporate the latest technology into their operations to increase productivity and reduce costs. Merchants find themselves in a situation similar to that of 150

Fundamental Overview The USD has been generally weaker this week after the strength seen last week due to some risk off sentiment. In fact, it looks like it’s just sentiment that’s been driving the market recently as fundamentally the soft US inflation figures just consolidated the market’s expectation of two cuts for this year despite

On the optimistic change, Ifo says that: “The German economy is slowly working its way out of the crisis. New hope is now emerging. The second half of 2024 should be significantly better than the first. As the year progresses, the purchasing power of private households should continue to gain strength and the overall economic

Reuters Japan corporate survey: Only 7% of Japanese companies believe PM Kishida’s pledge to have wages grow faster than inflation is achievable 61% of japanese companies see no need for govt to take countermeasures against China’s excess production capacity That 7% on wage rises is troubling for the Bank of Japan’s inflation goal – the

Will thoroughly respond to excessive FX movesFX market is determined by various factors, including interest rate differentialsRecent FX intervention was quiet effective in responding to speculators A bit of verbal jawboning there as USD/JPY continues to trickle higher since last week. The pair is holding just above 158.00 now, not much changed from before the

Bloomberg have a piece up: Hedge Fund Talent Schools Are Looking for the Perfect Trader Bloomberg is gated but if you can access it its an interesting read. The birth of these programs captures a historic change in this $4.3 trillion industry — as it moves on from the era of wildly competitive one-offs like

Nomura is expecting an on hold decision from the Bank of England today, GBP won’t be movedFederal Reserve speakers Thursday include Kashkari, Barkin, DalyHedge fund boot camp – Citadel internship pays US$19K a monthOffshore yuan at its lowest since November last year as the PBOC relaxes its grip on CNYPBOC Loan Prime Rates (LPR) remain

I posted earlier in the week the good info from HSBC on the PBOC allowing the onshore yuan to weaken a little: HSBC expect the USD/CNY reference rate to drift higher (yuan weaker) Which its done, setting the CNY at its lowest since November 2023 today: PBOC sets USD/ CNY central rate at 7.1192 (vs.

There are a couple to take note of on the day, as highlighted in bold. The first one being for EUR/USD at the 1.0700 mark. That will once again keep price action more contained, with downside momentum likely to meet a floor at the figure level until the expiries roll off later. Then, there is

There were a couple of dovish hints, subtle of course, put out by the BOE in their rate statement today. Let’s dive straight into it. Firstly, they introduced this passage to the forward guidance: “As part of the August forecast round, members of the Committee will consider all of the information available and how this

Prior 5.25%Bank rate vote 7-0-2 vs 7-0-2 expected (Dhingra, Ramsden voted to cut by 25 bps)For some policymakers, decision today was “finely balanced”That is because higher-than-expected services inflation reflected factors that would not push up medium-term inflationLabour market continues to loosen but remains relatively tight by historical standardsKey indicators of inflation persistence continue to moderate,

The key highlights on the agenda today are central bank decisions featuring the SNB and BOE. They will round off the central bank bonanza in June, but the decisions might end up being non-events for the most part. I’ll get to that in a bit. But for now, FX is keeping rather muted as things

New Zealand economic growth data for the first quarter of 2024 – a growing economy again, NZ exits recession. +0.2% q/q expected +0.1%, prior -0.1% +0.3% y/y expected +0.2%, prior -0.3% A beat for the q/q and y/y. NZD/USD popped on the data release: This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

Solciety, a prominent player in the PolitiFi meme coin sector, has successfully raised over $300,000 within the first 48 hours of its presale, which commenced at 14:00 UTC on 18th June. The presale is scheduled to run for 30 days, concluding on 18th July. The presale success aligns with the heightened interest in PolitiFi tokens

The PBOC is expeted to hold its benchmark one and five year Loan Prime Rate (LPR) unchanged today. Current LPR rates are: 3.45% for the one year3.95% for the five year The expected hold is despite subdued economic data and widespread expectations that the Bank will be forced to cut rates at some stage. A

Data earlier today brought the welcome news that New Zealand’s economy grew in the first quarter of 2024: NZ exited recession as the economy grew The data came in stronger than expected: New Zealand Q1 GDP +0.2% q/q (expected +0.1%) The latest forecasts from the RBNZ had projected 0.2% growth for the first quarter. The

People’s Bank of China USD/CNY reference rate is due around 0115 GMT. The People’s Bank of China (PBOC), China’s central bank, is responsible for setting the daily midpoint of the yuan (also known as renminbi or RMB). The PBOC follows a managed floating exchange rate system that allows the value of the yuan to fluctuate

Good morning, afternoon and evening all. Any charts, technical analysis, trade ideas, thoughts, views, ForexLive traders would like to share and discuss with fellow ForexLive traders, please do so: This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

“Well duh, a good backtesting results is when you make 1,000,000% return.” That’s what many new traders think and that’s why over 90% of traders fail. If you want to become a successful trader, you’re going to have to learn how properly evaluate a trading strategy and adjust your perception of what is a good

While futures are open the cash market is, of course, closed. NYSE and Nasdaq open for regular trading hours at 9.30am US Eastern time as normal. Thursday, 20 June and Friday, 21 June 2024 are normal trading days. — Wednesday June 19 was the holiday – hope you all had a great celebration. This article

After yesterday’s snoozefest, today we have a much livelier day as we get two major central bank policy decisions and the US Jobless Claims figures. We will also have the US Housing Starts and Building Permits data released at the same time of the Jobless Claims, but the market will likely pay more attention to

Eurostoxx +0.2%Germany DAX +0.3%France CAC 40 +0.2%UK FTSE flatSpain IBEX flatItaly FTSE MIB +0.2% This comes with S&P 500 futures seen up 0.3% on the day currently. It is still early in the day though, with the SNB and BOE policy decisions still coming up. Then after, there is the US weekly jobless claims data

Prior CHF 4.32 billion; revised to CHF 4.34 billion The Swiss trade surplus expanded in May as exports grew by 0.6% while imports fell by 6.5% on the month. This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

A piece in Dow Jones / Markt Watch (gated). “Froth forecasts” compiled by State Street Associates (based on research by Harvard University professor Robin Greenwood): probability of a 40% decline at some point over the next two years — the operational definition of a crash that they use — is calculated to be 18%, lower

Czech National Bank Governor Aleš Michl has outlined plans aimed at improving returns on its foreign-currency reserves. Over the next five years he plans to: boost the share of equity holdings in reserves to 30%boost gold holdings from currently around 40 metric tones to 100 Says the bank won’t try to time the market in

New Zealand economic growth (or contraction) data is due at 2245 GMT (1745 US Eastern time). New Zealand is already in recession (consecutive quarters of economic contraction), a negative today would extend it. New Zealand inflation is 4% y/y way above target. The RBNZ has held rates at 5.5% at seven consecutive meetings and another

The Bank of England Monetary Policy Committee is meeting on Thursday, 20 June 2024. Times below are GMT, the BoE announcement is due at 1100 GMT, which is 0700 US Eastern time (as a ps. the SNB decision is due at at 0730 GMT / 0330 US Eastern time). This snapshot from the ForexLive economic

BOC Minutes: Governing Council considered waiting until July to cut ratesUS June NAHB housing market index 43 vs 45 priorCanada’s population continues to surge as it hits 41 millionECB’s Centeno: ECB will cut if disinflation process continuesCanada May Teranet house price index +0.5% m/mUS MBA mortgage applications w.e. 14 June +0.9% vs +15.6% prior Markets:

I posted earlier in the week a useful piece from analysts at HSBC tipping the People’s Bank of China would allow the USD/CNY reference rate to rise: HSBC expect the USD/CNY reference rate to drift higher (yuan weaker) This indeed looks to have been the case so far, with the PBOC easing back on the

The pound is flat today at 1.2715 in part because the US is on holiday but there was some minor selling earlier after a softer UK CPI print. Inflation was up 0.3% m/m compared to 0.4% expected but it was deeper within the report there was trouble as services inflation was hotter than anticipated. Deutche

The Hong Kong exchange has, for decades, halted trade during severe weather conditions, such as typhoons. Currently, trading on the exchange is halted if the Hong Kong Observatory posts a typhoon signal no. 8 and above. In a move to preserve its status as a financial hub, and compete with Shanghai and Shenzen, Hong Kong

Reminder – PBOC monetary policy interest rate decision due Wednesday evening, US timeJapan’s Ministry of Finance proposes selling shorter term debt as the BOJ eyes rate hikeChina’s FX regulator says Will prevent yuan exchange rate from overshooting,Japanese Chief Cabinet Secretary Hayashi giving assurances over troubled Norinchukin BankPBOC Governor says monetary policy will provide support for

The number of foreign visitors for business and leisure was seen at 3.04 million last month. That is little changed from April and just down slightly from the all-time record in March. Compared to May 2019 i.e. the same month before the pandemic, arrivals into Japan were 9.6% higher this year. If anything, the weaker

Members recognized chance of inflation stalling but there was a consensus that indicators showed enough progress to warrant a cutMembers agreed that future easing would likely be gradual, timing would depend on data Agreed to emphasize in communications that decisions would be taken one meeting at a timeSome members were more focused on downside risks

Closing changes: Stoxx 600 -0.2%German DAX -0.4%UK FTSE 100 +0.1%French CAC -0.8%Italy MIB -0.3%Spain IBEX -0.2% The latest poll forecasts the UK Conservative leader Rishi Sunak will lose his own seat in the July 4 election. This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

Prices up 0.5% seasonally adjustedPrices up 1.7% non-seasonally adjustedPrices up 5.7% y/yPrices are 2.04% from the May 2022 peak Leading cities y/y: Calgary 16.4%Halifax 11.4%Vancouver 8.7%Toronto +2.8% The early indications from the Bank of Canada rate cut were a bit of a surprise as it sparked a jump in listings rather than a jump in

Canadians are quickly turning against immigration as the country’s population continues to swell at a breakneck pace. The population surpassed 41 million for the first time on April 1, according to Statistics Canada. That’s after the country added 242,673 people during the first quarter. The quarterly population growth of 0.6% has been consistent over the

Prior was 45Current sales 48 vs 51 priorSix month sales 47 vs 51 prior This is the lowest reading since December. It’s the second consecutive miss in a quick fall from 51 in April. The latest retail sales data also showed poor metrics on building materials and furniture, which are proxies for housing turnover. Here

Rates will fall if inflation helps us, which it is doing ‘If we look at the monetary policy cycle as it stands today, and what we know today about inflation and the trajectory of interest rates, we can anticipate that this cycle of negative results [for the Banco de Portugal] will continue for at least

Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) Chief Economist Paul Conway speech on inflation. He’ll be following up with more at 5.30pm New Zealand time (0530 GMT, 0130 US Eastern time). From his speech: Inflation may be more sticky in the near termBut inflation could fall more quickly in the medium term, there is spare capacity

The Bank of Canada kicked off a rate-cutting cycle this month and now the question is: How quickly will the cuts continue? Governor Tiff Macklem said they are taking decisions one meeting at a time and that it’s reasonable to expect more rate cuts if inflation continues to ease. Later today we get the minutes

The People’s Bank of China set the onshore yuan (CNY) reference rate for the trading session ahead. USD/CNY is the onshore yuan. Its permitted to trade plus or minus 2% from this daily reference rate.CNH is the offshore yuan. USD /CNH has no restrictions on its trading range.A significantly stronger or weaker rate than expected

NVDA price forecast for traders and investors at ForexLive.com Predicting where a stock might rest after a significant rally, especially when it’s creating new all-time highs (ATH) almost weekly, presents a unique challenge in technical analysis. NVDA (NVIDIA Corporation) is currently in such a phase, with its price action tightly confined within a strong bull

Fundamental Overview Copper has been rallying like crazy in the first part of the year amid a pickup in global growth, Chinese stimulus measures and concerns over tightness in global mine supply. Unfortunately, as it’s often the case, the rally attracted the momentum players, the price got overstretched and we got a big correction to

Prior +15.6%Market index 210.4 vs 208.5 priorPurchase index 146.0 vs 143.7 priorRefinance index 552.7 vs 554.7 prior30-year mortgage rate 6.94% vs 7.02% prior Mortgage applications nudged a little higher in the past week, helped by a further jump in purchase activity. That is offset by a decline in refinancing activity, following the surge higher in

North Korea fully supports Russia’s military operation in UkraineRussia plays important role in maintaining strategic balance Meanwhile, Putin says that he hopes the next time the two meet again will be in Moscow. With the G7 recently having kept much of their focus on China, the partnership between Russia and North Korea continues to deepen.

Fundamental Overview The USD last week saw a quick dip across the board following the soft US CPI report as the market priced back in two rate cuts by the end of the year. The moves were reversed soon after though as we got a bit more hawkish than expected FOMC decision where the dot

The string continues for the Nasdaq. The index has closed higher for 7 consecutive days with each day closing at record levels. Today’s close was by the a whisker, but it was still a positive day. The first high close was at 17192.53 back on June 10th. Today the index closed at 17862.23. That is

The Reserve Bank of Australia left the cash rate unchanged yesterday, as widely expected: RBA leaves cash rate unchanged at 4.35%, as expectedRBA’s Bullock: We did not consider the case for a rate cut todayRBA’s Bullock: We need a lot to go our way to bring inflation back to range Via Westpac, a recap, in

French President Emmanuel Macron called an election back on Sunday June 9. Adam on the call: Macron’s gamble is looking like a disaster as new poll released Leader of the far-right National Rally Marine Le Pen has offered an olive branch: says she won’t seek Macron’s resignation if far right wins snap election Le Pen

Headlines: UK May CPI +2.0% vs +2.0% y/y expectedHow has the BOE rates pricing changed after the inflation data today?Eurozone April current account balance €38.6 billion vs €35.8 billion priorJapan’s tourism sector continues to flourish going into the summerGerman economy minister says relationship with China has become more complexNorth Korea and Russia are entering a

Credit Agricole has revised its forecast for the Federal Reserve’s rate cuts, now projecting the first cut to occur in September instead of July. This adjustment maintains the overall forecast of 50 basis points of cuts by the end of the year, with a skip in November and another cut in December. Key Points: Revised

German DAX futures +0.2%UK FTSE futures flat European equities continue to try and put last week’s poor showing behind them so far this week. The slight gains slated for the open here continues the modest bounce on the week, helped by gains in Wall Street yesterday. Political woes may have ebbed but they will continue

US May advance retail sales +0.1% vs +0.3% expectedFed’s Musalem: Confidence to cut rates could take months and likely quarters to play outFed’s Goolsbee: Latest inflation number was ‘excellent’ hopefully more to comeFed’s Kugler: Policy has more work to do, judgement will be guided by dataFed’s Kugler: We have two-sided risks, we continue to pay

Fundamental Overview The USD last week saw a quick dip across the board following the soft US CPI report as the market priced back in two rate cuts by the end of the year. The moves were reversed soon after though as we got a bit more hawkish than expected FOMC decision where the dot

Settle in for a quiet one today with the US off on holiday. Europe doesn’t appear to be inspired today either, though we do get the Bank of Canada minutes at 1:30 pm ET. This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

Today is the Juneteenth holiday in the US and the US markets will be closed. The only notable event was the UK CPI report where the data showed some more progress but nothing gamechanging for the BoE. There’s not much else scheduled for today other than the US NAHB Housing Market Index and the BoC

The TL;DR on this post is that there is no rate change expected from the People’s Bank of China. On Monday the Bank set the Medium-term Lending Facility (MLF) unchanged: People’s Bank of China set MLF rate at 2.5% (expected 2.5%, prior 2.5%) The MLF rate sets the scene for the monthly Loan Prime Rate

Let’s just take a quick check of things based on the current pricing: August – 25 bps rate cut: ~32% (previously ~46%)September – 25 bps rate cut: ~80% (previously ~88%)Total rate cuts for remainder of 2024: ~44 bps (previously ~48 bps) The odds of a sooner rate cut have gone down a little despite UK

People’s Bank of China Governor Pan Gongsheng is speaking at the 2024 Lujiazui Forum in Shanghai” Monetary policy is supportiveMonetary policy will provide financial support for China’s economic recoveryThe weakening momentum of the USD’s rise is a benefit to the yuanWants to strengthen counter- and cross-cyclical policy adjustmentPBOC aims to maintain stability in policyWill prevent

I posted info on this yesterday as a heads up, doing so again. U.S. markets will be closed Wednesday for the Juneteenth holiday. NYSE and Nasdaq will be closed The Securities Industry and Financial Markets Association (SIFMA) is recommending the US Bond market close that day. So it is. FX desks will be closed, perhaps

Eurostoxx -0.1%Germany DAX -0.1%France CAC 40 -0.2%UK FTSE -0.2%Spain IBEX +0.1%Italy FTSE MIB flat This takes away from the slight gains just about an hour ago. It’s going to be a bit more of a quiet one in trading today. That considering US markets are closed in observance of the Juneteenth holiday. This article was

I wasn’t expecting wild swings, but sheesh. Nothing! Link is here ICYMI: BOJ April Minutes show some concern about the weak yen on inflation & wages The hourly USD/JPY chart is looking like its getting ready to pop above 158.30. I stuck some lines on it but I’m sure tech analysts out here can do

Fundamental Overview The USD last week saw a quick dip across the board following the soft US CPI report as the market priced back in two rate cuts by the end of the year. The moves were reversed soon after though as we got a bit more hawkish than expected FOMC decision where the dot

Prior +2.3%Core CPI +3.5% vs +3.5% y/y expectedPrior +3.9% The readings are in line with estimates, with the monthly figures showing a 0.3% increase in headline inflation and 0.5% increase in core inflation. Despite the headline reading touching the crucial 2% mark, core annual inflation remains high at 3.5%. And the more worrying detail is

Prior €35.8 billion The details show surpluses were recorded for goods (€38 billion), services (€11 billion) and primary income (€2 billion). And these were offset by a deficit for secondary income (€12 billion). This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

China is an important partner in all fieldsBut relationship has now become more complexWe do not want to separate from ChinaBut being too dependent on one country is a problem Considering the current fragile state of Germany’s manufacturing sector, it’s not the best time to strain relations with China. That said, China could also do

A draft proposal reviewed by Reuters: Japan must create an environment where government bonds remain an attractive investment for financial institutions, such as by issuing shorter-duration debt, a finance ministry panel is likely to saythe Bank of Japan’s exit in March from its radical stimulus is prodding the government to prepare for an era of

After a bit of a tussle so far in June trading, USD/CHF finally fell below a key support threshold yesterday. The 200-day moving average (blue line) has given way, alongside the 61.8 Fib retracement level of the swing higher this year. It’s a notable breakdown for the pair, as the downside momentum continues to build

Fundamental Overview The USD last week saw a quick dip against the Yen following the soft US CPI report as the market priced back in two rate cuts by the end of the year. The moves were reversed soon after though as we got a bit more hawkish than expected FOMC decision where the dot

People’s Bank of China USD/CNY reference rate is due around 0115 GMT. The People’s Bank of China (PBOC), China’s central bank, is responsible for setting the daily midpoint of the yuan (also known as renminbi or RMB). The PBOC follows a managed floating exchange rate system that allows the value of the yuan to fluctuate

The State Administration of Foreign Exchange (SAFE) in the regulator: Will strengthen countercyclical supervision, improve the solvency, deposit reserve mechanismsStudying broadening the scope of foreign shareholders in non-bank institutionsChina’s forex market operation is resilientChina’s forex market faces increasing adjustmentChina’s forex market has condition for steady operation in futureChina’s forex market remains reasonable and orderlyWill pay

Crude oil futures settled at $80.71. That is a $0.99 or 1.24%. That is the highest level since April 30. Looking at the daily chart, the price is also closing back above its 100 and 200-day moving averages at $79.51 and $79.63 respectively. The price is also closing above its 50% midpoint of the move

Results via oilprice.com on twix: — Expectations I had seen centred on: Headline crude -2.2 mn barrelsDistillates +0.3 mn bblsGasoline +0.6 mn — This data point is from a privately-conducted survey by the American Petroleum Institute (API). It’s a survey of oil storage facilities and companiesThe official report is due Wednesday morning US time. The

As was widely expected, the Reserve Bank of Australia left the cash rate unchanged yesterday: RBA leaves cash rate unchanged at 4.35%, as expectedRBA’s Bullock: We did not consider the case for a rate cut todayRBA’s Bullock: We need a lot to go our way to bring inflation back to range I posted earlier from

There are just two to take note of on the day, as highlighted in bold. The first one being for EUR/USD at the 1.0745 level. That is likely to help keep price action in the pair more muted, sticking closer to the expiries before rolling off later. Then, there is the one for USD/CAD at

The monthly Reuters Tankan survey, a guide to the Bank of Japan’s quarterly tankan survey. For June 2024: Manufacturers index is +6, from +9 in Maypositive for the fourth consecutive monthJapanese manufacturers say their drop in confidence is due to higher materials costs.Non – manufacturers +31, from +26 in Maythree month high Outlooks: Manufacturers seen

The World Gold Council surveys central banks each year on attitudes around gold and currency reserves. This year, 29% said they plan to increase holdings in the year ahead. That’s the highest since the survey began in 2018. I think that’s even better than it looks because gold prices appreciated in the past year by

Japanese Chief Cabinet Secretary Hayashi financial health of Norinchukin Bank is sufficient Reports are that the Japanese banking giant Norinchukin Bank is to sell USD 63bln of US and European sovereign bonds during the current fiscal year. Doing so to make up for unrealised losses. will dispose of the foreign bonds gradually during the fiscal

With hindsight the April meeting was a bit of a placeholder between the rate hike (the first in 17 years) at the March meeting: Highlights of the Bank of Japan rate decision on April 26, 2024 and the meeting last week where the Bank flagged a reduction in JGB purchases to come: BOJ governor Ueda

A major police incident has unfolded on Collins Street in Melbourne’s CBD people reporting they were told to stay inside their office buildings Police, including the bomb squad, were called to attend firearm found at the scene, not yet confirmed if it is a real one or an imitation UPDATE – area declared safe now.

Sees 2024 fiscal deficit at $1.915 trillionFY 2025-34 deficit seen at $22.083 trillion, up 10% from Feb forecast2024 real GDP seen up 2.0% vs 1.5% in Feb2025 GDP seen at 2.0% vs 2.2% in FebSees 2024-34 avg GDP growth at 1.8%2024 deficit higher due to outlays on student loans, bank resolutions, Ukraine/Israel aid and MedicaidLegislation,

Major currencies are looking rather muted and understandably so. Today will be more of a placeholder trading day with it being a US holiday. That makes for kind of a weird week as we have a bit of a recess in the middle. The dollar is keeping more mixed overall on the week while risk

Goolsbee is participating in a panel. More to come This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

Exports to: China +17.8% y/ythe US +23.9% y/ythe EU -10.1% y/y This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

The minutes from the Bank of Japan today are for the April meeting. The April meeting followed the March meeting. It was at the March meeting that the BoJ raised its rate for the first time in 17 years. April was more low-key. From this meeting day: Highlights of the Bank of Japan rate decision

Earlier from Conway: RBNZ’s Conway: Inflation may be more sticky in the near term More: Inflation will slow down, helped by excess capacityNZ not experiencing stagflationwelcomes the recent fall in expectations for inflation headline inflation to drop to target band by year-end This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

The data release has barely moved NZD/USD, circa 0.6144 The current account represents the most comprehensive gauge of a nation’s international financial interactions. It encapsulates not just the exchange of goods and services, but also earnings from foreign investments and payments made on investments from abroad within NZ. In addition, it covers transfers like overseas

Good morning, afternoon and evening all. Any charts, technical analysis, trade ideas, thoughts, views, ForexLive traders would like to share and discuss with fellow ForexLive traders, please do so: This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

Collins spoke on Tuesday: Fed’s Collins cautions against over-reacting to recent inflation data Read that post, sound advice from Collins. More now: its going to take some time for inflation to come downeconomic data points to an economy coming into better balanceCollins says she can see scenarios for both one and two cuts in 2024