The ‘core-core’ rate of inflation in May (core-core is that excluding food and energy, it’s the closest to the US measure of core inflation) inched up on the month. Expectations I had seen for this were for a 2.2% rise, which is the result. As I posted earlier: the BoJ is dissatisfied with the nature […]

It is highly uncertain to what extent financial firms can bear interest rate risk (1)BOJ should proceed cautiously with reduction of bond purchases (1)In order to stimulate demand, BOJ should swiftly reduce purchases to target level originally set to be achieved in over around two years’ time (2)Even if BOJ reduces amount significantly to start,

Interest rates will keep getting lower, and quite significantly This is slightly different to the headline from a report yesterday here. But perhaps it speaks to his own position and not one that is shared among his peers. It seems that there are a mix of views in the ECB at the moment. And that

Disinflation is happening as predicted.Inflation will continue to decline a bit slower.We are watching services inflation carefully.Rate decisions will depend on data.There is more uncertainty on growth than a few months ago. This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at www.forexlive.com.

Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco President Mary Daly participating in a ‘fireside chat’ at a conference: Recent data has been really goodEconomy is not there yet on inflationLabor market is coming back into balanceRisks on both side for monetary policy choicesFed remains data dependant for monetary policyPreemptive or urgent policy actions risk making mistakesWe

The Japanese inflation data is here from earlier: Japan data – June CPI Headline 2.8% y/y (vs. 2.9% expected) The BoJ meet on July 30 and 31 and this data will go into the mix for their decision. The Bank is widely expected to leave its short term rate unchanged but trim JGB buy plans

A summary of a note from WPAC on inflation in Australia and the RBA: Recent inflation data overseas has reminded market participants that sticky inflation need not imply stuck inflation. After a few wobbles, disinflation has resumed in the United States, Canada and New Zealand. Expectations of near-term cuts in policy rates have therefore come

China’s senior party official says China’s economic recovery is not strong enoughJapan PM Kishida says need to be cautious about effect of rising prices due to weak yenJapan finance minister Suzuki scolds government minister speaking about marketsChina says it will encourage the development and expansion of private economyJapan private sector economic council members say cant

German DAX futures -0.1%UK FTSE futures -0.4% After the mixed showing yesterday, European indices are still trying to find their way towards the end of the week. US futures are steadier with S&P 500 futures seen up 0.2%. However, it is still early in the day to be drawing any conclusions for how the week

This might be the end of the line for Joe Biden’s bid to remain as President. “We’re close to the end,” a person close to Biden told NBC News. A person who spoke with a senior campaign official said a sense of a new reality has fallen over the campaign. “They’re finally realizing: It’s a

People’s Bank of China USD/CNY reference rate is due around 0115 GMT. The People’s Bank of China (PBOC), China’s central bank, is responsible for setting the daily midpoint of the yuan (also known as renminbi or RMB). The PBOC follows a managed floating exchange rate system that allows the value of the yuan to fluctuate

Japanese media, Jiji, reporting – conveyed via Reuters: Japan digital minister Kono says he is not directly requesting BOJ to raise rates nowSays monetary policy decision is up to BOJ This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

Prior +2.9%Retail sales -0.2% vs +0.2% y/y expectedPrior +1.3%; revised to +1.7%Retail sales (ex autos, fuel) -1.5% vs -0.5% m/m expectedPrior +2.9%Retail sales (ex autos, fuel) -0.8% vs +0.2% y/y expectedPrior +1.2%; revised to +1.6% That’s a disappointing reading and once again reaffirms that household spending continues to suffer amid higher prices in the UK.

After the drop on Wednesday, the dollar pushed back in trading yesterday as it gained decent ground to be up on the week now. EUR/USD fell back below 1.0900 while GBP/USD saw a stronger rejection at the 1.3000 mark. Meanwhile, USD/JPY also rebounded back above 157.00 and is up over 200 pips from the lows

On the agenda today we have Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco President Mary Daly participating in a ‘fireside chat’ at a conference co-sponsored by the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas and Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta. Federal Reserve Board Governor Michelle Bowman will speak at the same event later, on “Accountability and Reform”. Also

ECB leaves key rates unchanged in July monetary policy decision, as expectedLagarde opening statement: Q2 growth was likely slower than Q1Lagarde Q&A: Question of what we do in September is wide open, will be data dependentECB sources: Officials consider if only one more cut is feasible in 2024Biden may be about to drop out –

China’s Senior Party Official For Policy Research: Promoting Chinese-style modernisation faces many complex contradictions and problems, but it is necessary China’s senior party official for deepening reform: We have consolidated and developed the advantages of the socialist system with Chinese characteristicsWe will continue to improve and develop the socialist systemWe will inject strong impetus into

The People’s Bank of China set the onshore yuan (CNY) reference rate for the trading session ahead. USD/CNY is the onshore yuan. Its permitted to trade plus or minus 2% from this daily reference rate.CNH is the offshore yuan. USD /CNH has no restrictions on its trading range.A significantly stronger or weaker rate than expected

AP reporting. No more details. The gossip mill keeps on churning. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

Macquarie analysts cited in a Dow Jones / Market Watch (gated) piece: US “neoliberal vision” of economic policy management may be fading outTaken over by a “populist economic vision” Macquarie analysts refer to the new populism as “popunomics” and say its “inflationary by design”: while US inflation may continue to stay low in the next

Discover the essential guide to understanding candlesticks so that you can accurately identify and trade them across different markets and timeframes The post The Essential Guide To Understanding Candlesticks appeared first on TradingwithRayner.

Info via Reuters: Several people close to President Biden say that they believe he has begun to accept the idea that he may not be able to win in November and may have to drop out of the race- New York Times Surely it must be time to just rip the band aid off and

Liz Truss rose to the top of UK politics. Unfortunately, all she will be remembered for is being the shortest-serving UK Prime Minister ever, in large part due to a budget drafted by her Chancellor of the Exchequer Kwasi Kwarteng. On September 23, 2022 Kwarteng announced a mini-budget that proposed abolishing the 45% rate of

The euro has climbed a few pips on a report citing ‘ECB sources’ saying that officials considered at today’s meeting if only one more cut was feasible this year. ECB pricing is currently for 44 bps in easing this year. This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

More jobs were likely created in Q2, mainly in servicesLabour market is more resilientExpect recovery to be supported by consumptionMost inflation measures were either stable or edged down in JuneWages are still rising at an elevated rateLatest surveys indicate that wages will moderate over the next yearInflation expected to fluctuate around current levels for the

Closing changes: German DAX -0.4%.France CAC +0.4%UK FTSE 100 +0.3%Spain’s IBEX +0.5%Italy’s FTSE MIB +0.5% French stocks are trying to recover from the election but aren’t finding it easy. This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

The traditional ECBs sources leak is out saying: ECB hawks open to September rate Provided upcoming data confirms disinflation underway Going back to the cut in June,, from the get-go, the ECB members felt uneasy about the cut. Since then, they seem to have been influenced by talking too much about a bias. Lagarde gave

It would be prudent for the Fed to wait for clearer evidence that inflation is sustainably returning to 2%US should consider scaling back tax exemptions for employer-paid health care, capital gains on the sale of primary residencesUS has a pressing need to reverse ongoing increase in public debtUS should consider progressively raising income tax rates,

There were some interesting moves in markets yesterday and they were very much all over the place. It’s been a tough week to try and paint a coherent picture to say the least. The dollar weakened at the balance, with USD/JPY continuing to steal the spotlight for the most part. Meanwhile, tech shares endured a

Crude oil futures is settling the day at $82.85. That’s up $2.09 or 2.59%. Yesterday, the price fell below its 100-day moving average currently at $80.61, but closed back above the moving average level. Today the price did drift back below the moving average to a low of $80.45, but reversed, and is closing near

Fundamental Overview The USD remains on the backfoot as the US data continues to point to resilient growth with falling inflation. This week, we got a good US Retail Sales report suggesting that the stories of deteriorating consumer spending have been exaggerated. Overall, this should continue to support the soft-landing narrative and be positive for

Prior decisionMain refinancing rate 4.25% vs 4.25% expectedPrior 4.25%Deposit facility rate 3.75% vs 3.75% expectedPrior 3.75%Marginal lending facility 4.50%Prior 4.50%Incoming information broadly supports previous assessment of inflation outlookNot pre-committing to a particular rate pathDetermined to ensure inflation returns to 2% target in a timely mannerWill keep policy rates sufficiently restrictive for as long as necessary

The Nasdaq index moved higher in the first few minutes of trading today, giving buyers some hope after the sharp move lower. Recall from yesterday (see post here and here), the Nasdaq moved down by over 500 points. In the post, I started to talk about the 200 hour MA as the next target. Today,

For what it is worth, the Washington Post is putting that former Pres. Obama tell allies that Biden needs to seriously consider his viability. The article adds that Biden’s path to victory has significantly shrunk. The sentiment is not unusual of late. Biden has even opened the door, saying in a new BET interview that

Axios reports: Several top Democrats privately tell us the rising pressure of party congressional leaders and close friends will persuade President Biden to decide to drop out of the presidential race, as soon as this weekend. There have been fresh calls for Biden to drop out today along with reports that Jeffries, Pelosi and Schumer

The GBPUSD moved higher yesterday, reaching its highest level since July 18, 2023, with a peak at 1.3043 before slowing. This move pushed the price above the July 28 high of 1.2995 and the psychological resistance at 1.3000. Today, however, the price has rotated lower, falling back below both the 1.3000 and 1.2995 levels, indicating

It’s very clear that inflation has come way down in 12-18 monthsThis is about as fast as inflation has ever fallenInflation path isn’t done but it makes me feel a lot better to see components decline, including housing The labor market has been cooling to a position of better balanceSo far this doesn’t look like

Fundamental Overview The Nasdaq posted its biggest daily decline since December 2022 yesterday as the rotation out of big tech stocks into more rate sensitive names continues. We can clearly see this internal market dynamic unfolding as the Russell 2000 and the Dow keep on gaining. In the big picture, the fundamentals did not change,

Yesterday at this time, the USDCAD was basing at the 100-bar MA on the 4-hour chart and moving above the 200-bar MA on the same chart. I noted that this price action tilted the technical bias to the upside (see my post by clicking HERE). However, the price couldn’t sustain the upward momentum and fell

Business conditions +5 index prior +10trading conditions and profitability both fell 6ptsemployment index fell 3ptsforward orders fell 4pts to -6 Business confidence -1 prior-2 NAB comments: “Consistent with our monthly business survey, today’s release shows business conditions eased in Q2 as slow economic growth and soft consumer demand weighed on firms,”“At +5, conditions are still

Fundamental Overview Copper experienced a pretty strong selloff this week with market participants blaming the soft Chinese economic data and the increase in inventories in most global warehouses suggesting some weak demand. In the big picture, stable global growth and major central banks cutting rates into resilient economies should be bullish drivers for the copper

Prior was +1.3Six month index +38.7 vs +13.8 priorCapex +7.4 vs +12.1 priorEmployment: +15.2 vs -2.5 priorNew orders: +20.7 vs -2.2 priorPrices paid: +19.8 vs +22.5 priorPrices received: +24.2 vs +13.7 priorShipments: +27.8 vs -7.2 priorUnfilled orders: +9.1 vs +8.9 priorDelivery times: +8.5 vs -9.4 priorInventories: -9.4 vs -6.4 priorAvg employee workweek: -1.6 vs +4.8

Prior was -0.5% This is a composite index of data that’s already released. It’s never a market mover but it can be a handy reminder of the recent trend in economic data. This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

It’s not clear what’s going on in yen trading today. Justin earlier speculated about intervention but noted that the move didn’t have the usual hallmarks of the Ministry of Finance slamming the bid. What’s tough is that so much that’s happening in markets right now is tough to explain. There is some intense rotation ongoing

Hideo Hayakawa is a former Bank of Japan Executive Director and now a Senior Fellow at the Tokyo Foundation for Policy Research. He spoke in an interview with Bloomberg, saying “I don’t think there’s a chance of a rate hike in July”: The Bank of Japan is unlikely to raise interest rates this month Will

Chipmakers and broader tech bounced early today but that move has since reversed and the Nasdaq is under pressure. The index is now at a session low, down 1%. The selling picked up on a report that Biden could drop out this weekend, though I think that’s somewhat correlation than causation. Certainly, all the political

I expect a short one today with Lagarde’s bags packed for vacation. This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

Headlines: Not much to get excited about the ECB meeting decision laterMajor currencies slow things down after the action yesterdayBOJ data does not suggest evidence of intervention on 17 JulyJapan chief Cabinet secretary says no comment on FX movesUK May ILO unemployment rate 4.4% vs 4.4% expectedSwitzerland June trade balance CHF 6.18 billion vs CHF

Good morning, afternoon and evening all. Any charts, technical analysis, trade ideas, thoughts, views, ForexLive traders would like to share and discuss with fellow ForexLive traders, please do so: This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

The last few days has seen the Dow industrial average move higher w the S&P and the NASDAQ indices moved lower. Today, the roles are reversed with the Dow lower, while the S&P in the NASDAQ indices or higher. The small-cap Russell 2000 is also trading a bit lower in trading today after some profit-taking

Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee is set to speak shortly on Yahoo Finance. I’ll have the headlines. This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

Seem weird: ah, here we go, it’s a thread! I am not sure this will go off as well as Biden expects 😉 This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

Specifics of monetary policy are up to the BOJ to decideBOJ monetary policy is not aimed at guiding FX levelsClosely monitoring FX market The usual stuff from Japanese officials amid their many verbal jawboning. But no doubt they can be happier a bit with USD/JPY sliding back to 156.00 currently, though off the earlier low

Prior week 222k revised to 223K.Initial jobless claims 243K vs. 230K estimate. Highest since August of last year.4-week moving average of initial jobless claims 234.75K vs 233.75K last weekprior week continuing claims 1.852M revised to 1.847M.Continuing claims 1.867M vs 1.855M estimate. This is the 6th week above 1.800M. Highest since November 2021.4-week moving average of

Fundamental Overview The USD remains on the backfoot as the US data continues to point to resilient growth with falling inflation. This week, we got a good US Retail Sales report suggesting that the stories of deteriorating consumer spending have been exaggerated. Overall, this should continue to support the soft-landing narrative and be positive for

As the North American session begins the AUD is the strongest and the GBP is the weakest. Australia employment change was higher than expectations with a gain of 50.2 K vs 19.9K estimate. That helped to prop up the pair. The USD is mixed with little changes vs all the major currencies. Up-and-done trading has

Eurostoxx +0.3%Germany DAX +0.1%France CAC 40 +0.5%UK FTSE +0.9%Spain IBEX +0.5%Italy FTSE MIB +0.3% The selloff in tech shares yesterday weren’t too impactful for European indices, as they are less concentrated in that area in general. And the rotation into the Dow is arguably a net positive reflection for European stocks at the balance. In

All three are speaking before the “Exploring Conventional in an Unconventional World” conference co-sponsored by the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas and Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta. Times below are in GMT / US Eastern time format. 1745/1345 Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas President Lorie Logan gives opening remarks2205/1805 Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco

Spotlight on today’s market: Tech Titans Propel Stocks Forward Today’s stock market demonstrates a striking dynamism, particularly led by major technology entities. The prevailing mood among investors accompanies a cautious optimism, influenced notably by how specific sectors are reacting to ongoing economic developments. 🚀 Technology and Communication Services: A Surge of Green Nvidia (NVDA) impressively

In the video and post yesterday, I spoke of the support target between 0.8818 and 0.8825 (see: “USDCHF breaks lower below technical levels, increasing the bearish bias. What next?“). In that post (and in the video), I wrote On the downside, the next target area comes between 0.8818 and 0.8825. Below that is the 50%

There is some speculation of Bank of Japan intervention. I haven’t seen or heard anything of this and it would seem to be not the way the BOJ is operating right now. The BoJ recently slammed yen crosses after US data, at time when it was already fallingthe BoJ tends not to intervene in times

Ursula von der Leyen has been re-elected as the President of the European Commission for a new five-year term but it wasn’t easy. Her re-election was supported by 401 deputies, with 284 voting against and 15 abstaining. It was a secret ballot with no one standing against her. In June, Italy’s Meloni abstained on the

There is no pre-determined path for SeptemberSept projections plus other data will be taken into accountDecision today was unanimousSurveys indicate wage growth will decline in 2025 and 2026Various wage measures point in the direction of rather elevated levelsWe’re data dependent, not data-point dependentWe will stay in restrictive territory as long as is necessaryWe must look

This is due to the fact that the Labour Force Survey (LFS) has been experiencing a fall in response rates and some quality challenges as a result. The idea put out by the ONS is to transition to a Transformed Labour Force Survey (TLFS), in order to improve the quality of the labour market data

In the kickstart video for July 18, 2024, I take a look at the three major currency pairs – the EURUSD, USDJPY and GBPUSD – from a technical perspective. The key levels are in play? What is the bias? the risk? the targets? for each pair and explain why. For other videos and posts on

Another strong employment report from Australia. Jobs added is more than double the central estimate, most of them full time (over 40K in June and May). A little gloss taken off by the rise in the unemployment rate. Its rising from near 50 year lows, and the participation rate is up, so on the whole

Federal Reserve speakers on Thursday include Logan, Daly, BowmanCanada – Trudeau holds meeting with Mark Carney to join governmentChinese Communist Party news conference called for July 19 – Third Plenum briefingBank of England speaker Thursday on financial stabilityAustralian data: Q2 business survey shows conditions eased and forward indicators softenedAustralian June unemployment rate 4.1% (vs. 4.0%

The Australian Labour market report for June is due at 1130 Sydney time on Thursday, 18 July 2024: 0130 GMT2130 US Eastern time (Wednesday evening)This snapshot from the ForexLive economic data calendar, access it here.The times in the left-most column are GMT.The numbers in the right-most column are the ‘prior’ (previous month/quarter as the case

It is very much a placeholder meeting as the ECB has made it clear that they will not cut rates today. Instead, policymakers have been teeing up the idea of the next move coming in September. So, this will be a slight pause following the rate cut in June. As such, there will be very

The European Central Bank cut rates from a record high in June, but this month they expected to hold. While September is being eyed for the next cut, guidance is likely to be non-committal and contain caveats. Due at 0815 US Eastern time, with Lagarde following a half hour later: Comments via a Reuters report

The background to this is here: Canadian finance minister could walk the plank. Mark Carney could be tapped Canadian media, Globe and Mail (gated) are reporting that Prime Minister Justin Trudeau has urged Mark Carney to join his Liberal government. Four unnamed sources were quoted, so it appears to be getting closer. This article was

To adopt resolution on further deepening reform comprehensivelyMust consciously place reform in a more prominent positionReform tasks set out in this decision to be completed by 2029Will implement measures to prevent, defuse risks in key areas such as real estate, local government debt, and small and medium-sized financial institutionsWill raise the level of party’s leadership

The swings in USD/JPY persists. While there was no evidence of intervention earlier there is concern amongst traders that it could hit. Increased nerves is seeing these hot potato swings. I posted earlier on the options expires due around 155.50/60 and this seems to have provided some support: Some USD/JPY option expiries to be aware

The NASDAQ tumbled today and had its worst trading day since December 2022 when the index fell -3.23%. The decline today pushed the index down -512.42 points or -2.77% to 17996.92 . Meanwhile, the Dow industrial average rose 243.60 points or 0.59% to 41198.09. That was good enough for another record close for that index.

During Schumer’s one-on-one meeting with Biden on Saturday, “Schumer forcefully made the case that it would be better for Biden, better for the Democratic party, and better for the country if he were to bow out.” How much longer does this charade go on? Biden is under pressure from all over to step aside. The

German DAX futures +0.1%UK FTSE futures +0.4% For European indices, they are less affected by the selloff in tech shares in Wall Street. Adding to that, the rotation play into the Dow is arguably a net positive for overall sentiment for European stocks too – which ended in a more mixed showing yesterday. US futures

Dollar pairs are lightly changed with narrow ranges returning in trading today. The only exception on the day is USD/JPY. But even then, the pair is also near flat at around 156.20 levels now amid some light pushing and pulling. The low earlier came in Asia, with the pair touching 155.36 before returning above the

Biden was scheduled to speak in Las Vegas. CEO of Unidosus says the Prez has Covid. Biden was to speak at a UnidosUS event. – White House confirms: Biden has tested positivehas mild symptomshas received a dose of Paxlovidwill go to Delaware and self-isolate while WFH Old pic. – UnidosUS is the United States’s largest

0715 GMT / 0315 US Eastern time: Bank of England executive director of financial stability strategy Nat Benjaminspeaking on how margining practices, now under close scrutiny by regulators globally after volatility in markets in recent years, could impact financial stability This doesn’t look like it’ll have anything on the economy or monetary policy. This article

When copper futures eyed a push above $5 per pound in May, it looked like we were starting to witness one of the breakout trades this decade. However, the hype quickly died down as price fell sharply towards the end of May and that led to another 5% drop in June. The slight rebound earlier

There are a couple to take note of, as highlighted in bold. They are all for EUR/USD centered near the 1.0900 level. If anything else, that should help to limit any downside shoves in the session ahead at least before we get to the ECB policy decision later. Besides that, there are a few large

Prior CHF 5.81 billion; revised to CHF 5.79 billion The Swiss trade surplus expanded in June as exports were seen down by 2.5% while imports slumped by 5.3% on the month. This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

The People’s Bank of China set the onshore yuan (CNY) reference rate for the trading session ahead. USD/CNY is the onshore yuan. Its permitted to trade plus or minus 2% from this daily reference rate.CNH is the offshore yuan. USD /CNH has no restrictions on its trading range.A significantly stronger or weaker rate than expected

As the US trading session draws to a close, the USD/CHF has reached a key swing target area between 0.8818 and 0.88267. This level is crucial for both buyers and sellers. For dip buyers, it offers a low-risk entry point; if the price falls below this range, exiting is advisable to avoid potential market breaks.

Fundamental Overview The USD remains on the backfoot as the US data continues to point to resilient growth with falling inflation. This week, we got a good US Retail Sales report suggesting that the stories of deteriorating consumer spending have been exaggerated. Overall, this should continue to support the soft-landing narrative and be positive for

I noted at the time that the price action was not as clear cut as what we saw from last week. And the BOJ accounts (as seen below) are now reaffirming that, suggesting that the Japan MOF might not have played a key role in driving USD/JPY lower yesterday. Typically, the circled column should show

The pair fell by roughly 1.3% yesterday, which was the steepest fall since Japan intervened in the market last Thursday. Before that, you’d have to look back to the start of May when Japan stepped in once again at the time. That speaks to the significance of the decline yesterday. Still, it wasn’t one that

A note from Goldman Sachs, info via Reuters, citing GS ‘without providing figures’: value of stocks hedge funds ditched over the last five trading sessions was the biggest since November 2022 and is close to a five-year recordde-risking has been led by the information technology sector, followed by industrial, healthcare, consumer discretionary and communications services

Chinese Communist Party Central Committee will condiuct the press conference: Scheduled for July 19 (I don’t have a time yet)it’s a briefing on the third plenum held this week We may get some info on moves to support the economy. Perhaps. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

Fed’s Waller:Time to cut rates is getting closer based on analysis of potential scenariosBeige Book: Economic activity maintained a slight to modest paceUS June housing starts 1.353M vs 1.300M expectedUS June industrial production +0.6% vs +0.3% expectedAtlanta Fed GDPNow growth estimate for Q2 comes in at 2.7% up from 2.5% priorEIA weekly crude oil inventories

Now that the UK labour market report is out of the way, the only notable event left in the European session is the ECB policy decision. Moving on to the American session, the latest US Jobless Claims figures will be the most important release of the day. 12:15 GMT/08:15 ET – ECB Policy Decision The

Overall Economic Activity Economic activity maintained a slight to modest pace of growth in a majority of DistrictsSeven Districts reported some increase in activity, while five noted flat or declining activityPreviously two noted no change in activity Labor Markets Employment rose at a slight pace in most DistrictsMore mentions of flat or declining employmentSeveral Districts

People’s Bank of China USD/CNY reference rate is due around 0115 GMT. The People’s Bank of China (PBOC), China’s central bank, is responsible for setting the daily midpoint of the yuan (also known as renminbi or RMB). The PBOC follows a managed floating exchange rate system that allows the value of the yuan to fluctuate

Prior 4.4%Employment change 19k v s 18k expectedPrior -140kJune payrolls change 16kPrior -3k; revised to 54kMay average weekly earnings +5.7% vs +5.7% 3m/y expectedPrior +5.9%May average weekly earnings (ex bonus) +5.7% vs +5.7% 3m/y expectedPrior +6.0% The jobless rate held steady in the reported month with nominal earnings also easing slightly in the three months

Rising exports and rising imports but not by as much as was expected, and not as much as in May. Exports to: China +7.2% y/ythe EU -13.4% y/ythe US +11% y/y USD/JPY has been heavy on the session: USD/JPY under 155.50 now Its around 155.60 as I update This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan

There are some option expiries to be aware of for 10am NY tome today (Thursday, 18 July 2024): 155.50-60 US$527mn156.00 US$325 mn Those amounts are almost ‘drop in the bucket’ size, but a heads up regardless. There are much larger volumes ones above, but they are so far away: 158.00 3.8bn USD159.00 1.2bn USD161.00 1.2bn

Its just on to 8.15am in Tokyo. USD/JPY is making new recent lows after its fall overnight: Forexlive Americas FX news wrap: Nasdaq suffers worst drop since 2022. USD/JPY pressured There is no fresh new catalyst This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

Via a note from JPM on oil ICYMI: estimate the equilibrium price of WTI oil at around $70/bbleven at $60/bbl, WTI prices are too low to incentivize production, potentially leading to a spike to $100/bbl in following year This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

Snippet from UBS’ global wealth management division on their outlook for the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) and investor implications. UBS expects the first rate cut from the FOMC in Septemberinvestors should “act now to put cash to work” as attractive yield from ‘quality fixed income’ is unlikely to persist much longer UBS have caught

Via the Bank of America’s global fund manager survey for July Most investors anticipate that the Federal Reserve will start cutting interest rates in September56% of responding investors expect a first Fed rate cut at the September 17/18 meeting87% anticipate a first cut in H2 I popped up this from FedWatch (CME) yesterday, the probability

Synopsis: ING believes that EUR/USD is more likely to fall to 1.08 rather than rise to 1.10 after this week’s ECB meeting. The current balance between USD-positive US political developments and USD-negative Fed rate repricing is keeping EUR/USD near 1.09, with minimal contribution from the euro leg. Key Points: Current Trading: EUR/USD remains close to

From the ForexLive glossary: The Beige Book is a report published by the Federal Reserve (Fed) eight times a year, that provides an overview of economic conditions in each of the Fed’s twelve districts. The report is compiled using information from the Fed’s business contacts, economists, and other experts, and covers a wide range of

Australia’s employment report is expected to show a continued rise in employment and a steady unemployment rate. I post a preview separately on this. You’ll also note the RBA Bulletin is due. This is going to be a monetary policy decision, we’ll have to wait for the next meeting (due on August 5 and 6)

In the new trading day in Australia, the employment report will be released.That report will likely have an impact on the prices. Knowing the key technical levels is a way to map out the roadmap for the event. On the downside, the nextkey area comes between 0.6708 and 0.6713. Her level corresponds with the rising

Gold touched a record $2483 but has since reversed lower and is trading down $12 on the day to $2456. Technically, I don’t see this reversal as overly damaging as it doesn’t come close to erasing yesterday’s spike higher. However we could see a retest of the old record high of $2450 set in May

Prior -0.2%Market index 214.1 vs 206.1 priorPurchase index 140.4 vs 144.3 priorRefinance index 613.0 vs 532.3 prior30-year mortgage rate 6.87% vs 7.00% prior The jump in mortgage applications in the past week comes as the average rate of the most popular US home loan drops by some 13 bps back under 7%. The rebound owes

As London/European traders look for the exits, the GBPUSD has backed off highs and is retesting the natural support at 1.3000 as well as the underside of a broken trend line at the same level. The high price going back to July 28, 2023 is also in play at 1.2995. WIll the buyers come in

As London/European traders finish up the day, the major indices are closing the day mixed: German DAX -0.40%.France CAC, -0.12%UK FTSE 100 +0.28%Spain’s Ibex +0.13%Italy’s FTSE MIB, +0.03% Looking at US markets as Europe leaves shows a mixed view as well but with more downside momentum for the losers. Both the S&P index and the

The buyers are taking more control in the USDCAD after early declines found support buyers near the 100 bar moving average on the 4- hour chart. The rise has now taken the price above the 200-bar moving average on the 4- hour chart. That moving average comes in at 1.3682 and is now closed support

Prior was 1.277m (revised to 1.314m)Single family -2.2%Multifamily +19.6%Permits 1.446m vs 1.395m prior Yesterday’s NAHB number was a bit better and long end yields fell yesterday near a three-month low. Home builder stocks absolutely shot higher as the market senses a bottom in the cycle. This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

The tides have sure changed. Democratic representative Adam Schiff (California) has called for Pres. Biden to step down as the Democratic candidate for president of the United States. Schiff commented that there are growing concerns within the Democratic Party about President Biden’s ability to defeat former President Trump in the upcoming November election. These concerns

The NASDAQ index continues to get hit with the price now down 500 points or -2.72%. That is its largest decline since December 2022. Looking at the hourly chart below, the price gap lower and immediately moved below its 100-hour moving average (blue line currently at 18194). The next key target area comes between 17820

High yield 4.466% (last month was a little lower at 4.452%)WI level at the time of the auction 4.467%Tail -0.1 basis points vs six-month average of -0.6 basis pointsBid to cover 2.68X vs six-month average of 2.63XDealers 8.47% vs six-month average of 12.1%Directs 14.32% vs six-month average of 18.2%Indirects 77.2% vs six-month average of 69.7%

The weekly oil inventory data will be released at the bottom of the hour. The private data released late yesterday showed a surprise draw down to -4.44M barrels The expectations were for a small change of -0.033M in oil inventories. Gasoline is expected to show a drawdown of -1.600MDistilates are expected to show a draw

Dow and S&P close at recordsI know it is just the Dow 30, but it is on pace for best % move since June 2023Crude oil futures settles at $80.76Fed’s Kugler: Will be appropriate to ease later this year if conditions evolve favorablyThere hasn’t been a better week to own the Russell 2000 in 24

On the point about the consumer, yesterday’s retail sales report was very strong but there was a huge seasonal adjustment that has the usual bears questioning the underlying strength. Other comments from Barkin: Expectation of a recession as needed to slow inflation has not played outFirms are reluctant to let people go, and some sectors

Just a couple weeks ago, the Atlanta Fed GDP growth estimate was near 1.5%. In its most recent calculation just released, the expected growth rate rose to 2.7% from 2.5% last. Growth goes from below trend to above trend in a short period of time. IN their own words: The GDPNow model estimate for real

International Monetary Fund (IMF) Chief Economist Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas spoke on Tuesday (US time). He had remarks on the Fed posted earlier: IMF expect only one Fed rate cut this year and the IMF published its latest growth forecasts on Tuesday: IMF leaves 2024 global growth forecast unchanged, bumps 2025 GDP Gourinchas also spoke on Japan,

We had the news on this posted many hours ago: Trump wants to hold rates high until after the election, no cut until after the election (which is three and half months away); Trump was speaking in an interview with Bloomberg TV when he gave, says the FT, the ‘warning’ to Powell not to cut.

Fundamental Overview Yesterday, gold reached a new all-time high as it continues to be supported by the steady fall in real yields. The breakout of the three-month range might now attract momentum players and take us to even higher highs. As of now, it looks like gold have limited downside but lots of upside as

Latest data getting us closer to a disinflationary trend that we’re looking forBut would like to see more data to gain further confidence inflation is moving sustainably to 2% goalLast week’s data reflects a broad decline in inflationThings are moving in the right directionEven if Fed begins to cut rates, policy will remain restrictive enough

The NZDUSD fell sharply yesterday and in the process tested the 50% midpoint of the move up from the April low and also a trendline support level on the 4-hour chart. The subsequent bounce off of the USD selling has in the price extend above the 100 day moving average at 0.60629, 200 day moving

Crude oil draw of -4.870M vs expected draw of -0.033MGasoline inventories build of 3.328M vs expected draw of -1.600MDIstillates build of 3.454M vs expected draw of -0.833MCushing drawdown of -0.875M vs last week -0.702M drawRefining utilization -1.7% versus expected -0.1%. Previous +1.9% Crude oil is trading at $82.04 up $1.31 after the data. The private

Flight to safety flows into the Swiss franc and movement out of the US dollar has the USDCHF moving sharply lower in trading today. The pair also tumbled below a key technical target defined by the: 200 day moving average at 0.888438.2% retracement of the move up from the December 2023 low at 0.8883, and

More from Fed Gov. Waller: Exact timing of rate cut doesn’t matter a lot. Key to easing when conditions just defy itLabor market is in a sweet spot, firms have the workers they wantIt is important for the Fed to maintain current labor market conditions.We have done our job with the high rates, open question

The probability priced in for a rate cut in August is ~49%, according to the OIS market. Meanwhile, there’s roughly 50 bps of rate cuts priced in by year-end. It’s definitely a close call and if the BOE doesn’t move in August, traders are still expecting them to at least move in September. The odds

US chip stocks are helping to send the major indices lower with the NASDAQ index down over 1.6%. The snapshot of the market currently shows: Dow Industrial Average average minus 47.66.2 or -0.12% at 40,906.83. S&P index -55.50 points or -0.98% at 5611.71NASDAQ index -301.56 points or -1.63% at 18207.78. The RUSSELL 2000 is trading

Prior was +0.2%Prices up 3.6% y/y vs +5.7% prior led by AlbertaPrices in Toronto +0.8% y/yFull report There are some real creaks appearing in the Canadian housing market and that’s a big reason the Bank of Canada will likely ride to the rescue next week with a second consecutive rate cut. This article was written

Reuters Tankan survey for June 2024 Manufacturers sentiment index +11 in July vs +6 in June first gain in four monthsmanufacturers expect the index to fall back to plus 9 over the next three months Service-sector +27, down from June’s +31 Reuters report some comments from the survey: “Domestic price hikes have weakened consumption and

There are unconfirmed rumours on Chinese social media that Chinese leader Xi Jinping suffered a stroke during Third Plenum meetings. These rumors have gotten some traction so keep an eye on them. That said, these kinds of rumours always seem to perk up, including persistent rumours that Vlad Putin has died. These reports, evidently originated

As the North American session begins, the JPY is the strongest and the USD is the weakest. US stocks are getting hit lower with the Nasdaq leading. Former Pres. Trump who is leading the presidential race, said he wanted a 10% tariff on all goods and 60% on Chinese goods. He also said Taiwan should

The low earlier hit 157.70 and that puts it up against a test of key trendline support for the year, seen around 157.75 currently. It’s a big moment for USD/JPY as a break of that will start to chip away at the resolve of dip buyers. And that could lead to a more meaningful retracement

Headlines: Japanese yen surge continues in European morning tradeJapan top currency diplomat Kanda says no choice but to respond to speculatorsUS futures fall further as tech shares feel skittishTraders trim BOE rate cut bets for August after inflation dataUK June CPI +2.0% vs +1.9% y/y expectedEurozone June final CPI +2.5% vs +2.5% y/y prelimFed’s Williams

easyMarkets is proud to announce the conclusion of the Bernabéu Crossbar Championship, an extraordinary event held in partnership with Real Madrid at the iconic Santiago Bernabéu Stadium. While the contestants were unable to hit the crossbar, the spirit of competition was celebrated, and each participant received $2,500, totaling $10,000 in prizes. Beyond the competition, the

Overview of Today’s Market Today’s stock market presents a mixed but predominantly negative outlook, particularly in the technology sector which shows significant declines. As we dissect the segments of the market, notable trends emerge that could signal key movements for investors and traders. Sector Analysis Technology & Semiconductors: A sea of red dominates the semiconductor

Details: prior month 0.9% Unrevisedindustrial production 0.6% versus 0.3% expected capacity utilization 78.8% versus 78.4% estimate prior month revised to 78.3 from 78.7 last monthmanufacturing output 0.4% versus 0.2% estimate. Prior month revised to 1.0% from 0.9% This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

Richmond Fed Pres Barkin adds to his comments from earlier saying: He is sure that the US central bank will debate at July policy meeting whether it is still appropriate to describe inflation as elevated Looking for low inflation to sustain and broaden, starting to see the broadening.No one 25 basis point interest rate cut

Earlier today we had the official CPI data from NZ: New Zealand Q2 CPI 0.4% q/q (expected 0.5%) & 3.3% y/y (expected 3.4%)ANZ forecast an RBNZ interest rate cut in November (previously forecasting February 2025)NZD/USD remains higher after the lower than expected NZ inflaiton data Now this from the Reserve Bank of New Zealand: You

Time for cut in rates is getting closer based on analysis of potential scenariosOptimistic scenario is more good inflation and data, which could mean interest rate cut in not too distant future.Second and probably more likely scenario is uneven inflation data ahead that still shows progress, that would make a rate cut in near future

Info incoming from the Federal Reserve later on Wednesday 17 July 2024: 1300 GMT / 0900 US Eastern time: Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond President Thomas Barkin gives informal remarks on the economy before the Greater Prince George’s Business Roundtable 1335 GMT / 0935 US Eastern time Federal Reserve Board Governor Christopher Waller speaks on

Eurostoxx -0.5%Germany DAX -0.4%France CAC 40 -0.3%UK FTSE -0.1%Spain IBEX -0.3%Italy FTSE MIB -0.3% US futures are also being pressured after the better showing in Wall Street yesterday. S&P 500 futures are down 0.5%, Nasdaq futures down 0.8%, and Dow futures down 0.3% currently. It’s shaping up to be more of a retreat in risk

Prior +2.6%Core CPI +2.9% vs +2.9% y/y prelimPrior +2.9% No change to the initial estimates and this doesn’t change anything before we get to the ECB tomorrow. Stick to the status quo is the message that Lagarde & co. will go with. This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

The latest strategy from Japan is to intervene when there are factors working in their favour in nudging USD/JPY lower. They did it last week after key US data releases and there is a suggestion that they are back at it again today. The drop lower in the pair isn’t quite a sharp one (that’s

The NASDAQ index continues to fall with the index now down 435 points or -2.37% at 18068.83. The NASDAQ is on pace for its worst day of 2024. Back on October 25, the index fell -2.43%. Technically, the NASDAQ gap lower and is trading below its 100 hour moving average. Recall that on July 1,

This is one of the most-unusual periods in markets I can remember. It’s hard to pin down what’s going on but consider this: The Russell 2000 is up 12% in five days. According to John Authers, in the last 30 years that move has only been exceeded by snap-back rallies following major crises: LTCM, Dot

Prior was +0.9%Manufacturing output +0.4% vs +0.2% expectedCapacity utilization 78.8% vs 78.4% prior This should lead to some further bumps in US Q2 GDP forecasts. This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

Via Oil Markets Editor @OPIS — Expectations I had seen centred on: Headline crude +1 mn barrelsDistillates -0.5 mn bblsGasoline -1.7 mn — This data point is from a privately-conducted survey by the American Petroleum Institute (API). It’s a survey of oil storage facilities and companiesThe official report is due Wednesday morning US time. The

The greenback nudged slightly higher after the more upbeat US retail sales report here. But it gave back those gains late in the day, as stocks continue to rip higher in Wall Street. It’s been a stellar month for equities already, with the S&P 500 up over 3.8% and the Dow up some 4.7% in

There’s no fresh catalyst in terms of headlines as the pair is just being driven lower on the session. But one can argue that it comes amid a break of key trendline support for the year as outlined here. The pair had previously held at the key level (white line) as seen in the chart

In the kickstart video, I look at the 3 major currencies – the EURUSD, USDJPY and GBPUSD. For the EURUSD, it based yesterday at the 50% midpoint of the move down from the December 2023 high (see video yesterday “EURUSD bounces off the 50% midpoint, giving the buyers the “go-ahead” to push higher“). That gave

A lower y/y inflation reading is expected from NZ. The Reserve Bank of New Zealand will welcome this. The NZ economy is in dire straits. Plummetting PMIs the latest indications of this: New Zealand services PMI for June 2024: 40.2 (prior 43.0)New Zealand June Manufacturing PMI 41.1 (prior 47.2) There are some indications we are

The inflation data from NZ came in lower than the market expected, and lower than the RBNZ had forecast: New Zealand Q2 CPI 0.4% q/q (expected 0.5%) & 3.3% y/y (expected 3.4%) At least one bank has brought forward its forecast for an RBNZ rate cut in response: ANZ forecast an RBNZ interest rate cut

Prior +2.0%Core CPI +3.5% vs +3.5% y/y expectedPrior +3.5% Both the headline and core annual estimates are unchanged compared to May. This comes as services inflation remains sticky, seen at 5.7%, also unchanged on the month. The pound has nudged up from 1.2970 to 1.2985 on the back of this. The report isn’t one to

He makes mention that “if speculators cause excessive moves in FX market, we have no choice but to respond appropriately”. They stepped into the market on Thursday and Friday last week, and that seems to have finally broken the resolve of dip buyers. USD/JPY is markedly lower again today, down by 1% to 156.75 currently.

Fundamental Overview The upward momentum in the S&P 500 has been kept at bay recently as the goldilocks data triggered a strong rotation into small caps stocks with the Russell 2000 having its best week in 24 years. It also looks like the rotation has been driven by hedge funds facing short squeezes on their

Fundamental Overview The USD remains on the backfoot as the US data continues to point to resilient growth with falling inflation. Yesterday, we got a good US Retail Sales report suggesting that the stories of deteriorating consumer spending might have been exaggerated. Overall, this should support the soft-landing narrative and be positive for the risk

People’s Bank of China USD/CNY reference rate is due around 0115 GMT. The People’s Bank of China (PBOC), China’s central bank, is responsible for setting the daily midpoint of the yuan (also known as renminbi or RMB). The PBOC follows a managed floating exchange rate system that allows the value of the yuan to fluctuate

Fundamental Overview The USD remains on the backfoot as the US data continues to point to resilient growth with falling inflation. Yesterday, we got a good US Retail Sales report suggesting that the stories of deteriorating consumer spending have been exaggerated. Overall, this should support the soft-landing narrative and be positive for the risk sentiment.

US data released Tuesday was strong, ICYMI summary here: Forexlive Americas FX news wrap 16 Jul. The shift into the Russell 2000 and Dow continues Bank of Montreal cite a less hawkish Powell: A Fed cut in September remains effectively fully priced in even with consumption and imported inflation surprising on the upside. The price

RBNZ’s own preferred inflation model 3.6% y/y (prior 4.2%) for Q2 2024Federal Reserve speakers on Wednesday include Barkin, Waller and SchmidHeads up for RBA’s John Simon to speak on WednesdayAustralian June leading index – economy improving but to remain below trend into 2025Financial Times: Donald Trump warns US Fed chair not to cut rates before

Singapore Non-oil Domestic Exports (NODX) -0.4% m/m expected +4.1% m/m, prior -0.1% -8.7% y/y expected -1.2% y/y, prior -0.1% Bad misses for this data This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

Fundamental Overview Crude oil has been on the backfoot ever since the last US NFP report as the market might have started to question the reasons to push into even higher highs. Things got even murkier as Trump’s odds of winning soared after the failed assassination attempt. He is a great supporter of the “drill,

Upside risks to inflation and downside risks to jobs have become more balancedIf labor market cools too much, it will be appropriate to cut rates sooner rather than laterIt may be appropriate to hold rates steady ‘a little longer’Inflation has continued to trend down despite ‘a few bumps’ at the start of this yearContinued labor

ANZ are forecasting a 25bp rate cut from the Reserve Bank of New Zealand in November 2024: Overall, today’s CPI data adds to the growing body of evidence that the RBNZ has done enough. There are now clear signs that weak demand and increasing spare capacity across the economy are flowing through to lower domestic

Despite a more negative day for equities, the dollar is not getting much love in trading today. Instead, traders are moving to the Japanese yen with USD/JPY itself down 1% to 156.75 currently. That comes amid a break of key trendline support in the pair, exacerbating the downside pressure. As the dollar struggles, GBP/USD is

The main highlight in the European session was the UK CPI, which was a disappointment for the BoE as the data remained unchanged from the prior figures. That ruled out a rate cut in August. For the rest of the session there’s no other notable event (the Eurozone CPI is not going to be a

Going into the report, traders were pricing in a relative coin flip for the BOE meeting in August. And with the headline, core, and services estimates all coming in unchanged, it’s hard to see a meaningful shift in the odds in the aftermath. The disinflation process is gradually playing out and central banks are now

The price of Crude oil fell -$1.15 or -1.30% to $80.76. The decline is attributed to weak growth in China, the world’s No.1 oil importer, raising demand concerns. The expectations that former Pres. Trump will win the November may also be a contributor as he is pro-drill and critical of the Biden administration regarded drilling

A snippet from Société Générale on US equites, looking favourably at the broadening rally: equal-weighted S&P 500 had its biggest one-day outperformance versus its market cap-weighted counterpart since Nov 2020 last week SocGen says this is a boost of confidence for stocks, comparing narrow with broader breadth: narrow breadth often occurs in a bear market

There is just one to take note of, as highlighted in bold. That being for USD/JPY at the 158.50 level. It isn’t one that holds any technical significance but could help to keep price action more contained before we get to US trading. That said, be wary of any surprises from the UK inflation data

It was previously closer to a coin flip at ~49% before the inflation numbers here. At the balance, the report proves inflation might be stickier but I would say the BOE could easily dismiss this as being part of the supposed “bumps in the road”. I mean, that’s the narrative that most central banks are

US futures, with tech in particular, are under a bit of pressure today. S&P 500 futures are now down 0.7% with Nasdaq futures down 1.2%. The Magnificent Seven is only due to report earnings next week but tech shares appear to be a little skittish already. That said, the drop so far today is a

German DAX futures -0.2%UK FTSE futures +0.3% French stocks were the laggard yesterday as the mood music in Europe remains a more cautious one. But for today, tech shares are also lagging with Nasdaq futures marked down by 0.5% currently. S&P 500 futures are also down 0.3% as such as we look to the session

There hasn’t been a better time to own the Russell 2000 since the year 2000. The five-day rally from 2029 to 2251 is a whopping 10.9% including 2.9% today. This run is the best five-day run since April 2000, according to Tom Hearden. That period in April/May 2000 was a counter-trend rally after the 1999/2000

The UK release will be the main one to watch, especially since an August rate cut by the BOE remains a near 50-50 call. Headline annual inflation is estimated to ease to 1.9% but core annual inflation is estimated to hold at 3.5%. Services inflation remains sticky and policymakers would like to see more progress

International Monetary Fund (IMF) Chief Economist Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas says he still expects just the one rate cut from the Federal Reserve in 2024. Gourinchas cites a risk that the slow pace of disinflation could mean that rates stay higher for longer. The IMF published its latest growth forecasts on Tuesday: IMF leaves 2024 global growth

Trump is ahead on the polling to win the presidential election in November, and he has bad news for borrowers. He spoke in an interview with Bloomberg, expressing that he does not want a Fed rate cut in September, as the market is now pricing. Trump says he has no plans to fire Federal Reserve

This data point tends not to be much of an AUD mover upon release. Westpac-Melbourne Institute Leading Index for June 2024indicates the likely pace of economic activity relative to trend three to nine months into the futurerose from -0.28% in May to -0.13% in June WPAC assessment: Lower commodity prices partially offset by stabilising hours

New Zealand inflation data for the April to June quarter of 2020, lower than expected: The Reserve Bank of New Zealand will be a little happier with this data, but inflation in NZ is still above target. The target range for consumer inflation is between 1 and 3%. Domestic inflation continues to stay stubbornly high:

Coming up at 6pm Sydney time: 0800 GMT / 0400 US Eastern time Panel participation by John Simon, Head of Economic Research, at the Macquarie University Business School, Sydney Stay tuned for any news on this at the time. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

The People’s Bank of China set the onshore yuan (CNY) reference rate for the trading session ahead. USD/CNY is the onshore yuan. Its permitted to trade plus or minus 2% from this daily reference rate.CNH is the offshore yuan. USD /CNH has no restrictions on its trading range.A significantly stronger or weaker rate than expected

Useful points made by Senior Fellow at Council on Foreign Relations (CFR) Brad Setser. I’d only add that China has already begun to let the yuan drop. We had the heads up on this from HSBC, and they were spot on: HSBC expect the USD/CNY reference rate to drift higher (yuan weaker) (USD/CNY chart below)

Bloomberg have snagged the remarks from Trump, interview on Bloomberg TV: Mr T says if he is elected President he would not be looking to remove Powell before Powell’s term endsays Trumponomics is low interest rates and tariffssays the Fed should not cut rates prior to the election *** Wow … I had what I

Good morning, afternoon and evening all. Any charts, technical analysis, trade ideas, thoughts, views, ForexLive traders would like to share and discuss with fellow ForexLive traders, please do so: This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

The Dow 30 does not gather the respect versus the broader indices. Some of the criticisms include: The DJIA tracks only 30 large companies, while the S&P 500 includes 500, leading critics to argue that the DJIA neglects companies of various sizes and doesn’t accurately represent the economy. Being price-weighted, the DJIA gives more weight

The major stock indices all closed higher but it was the Dow and the Russell 2000 which did the best. The Nasdaq lagged. Looking at the closing levels: Dow Industrial Average average soared 742.74 points or 1.85% at 40,954.49. That is the 2nd consecutive record close. S&P index rose 36.40.64 percent at 5667.21. That was

The EURUSD moved lower in the US session and in the process moved down to test the 50% midpoint of the trading range since the December 2023 high. That level comes in at 1.08695. The current price is at 1.0888. The bounce off that support target is a key bounce and bullish signal. Going back

New Zealand global daily trade price rises 0.4%. The average sell price comes in at $3,837/Tonne. The move higher comes after a sharp drop in the last report. The NZDUSD is trading lower today, but is finding a stall on the first test of the 50% midpoint of the move up from the April low

SocGen examines historical patterns of the USD’s response to Fed easing cycles, noting that the chances of Fed easing in September have increased. With past easing cycles showing varied impacts on the USD, the overall trend suggests a lagged response rather than an immediate downturn. Key Points: Historical Analysis: Since 1984, there have been 7

The US retail sales came out stronger than expectations with revisions to the prior month. The market likes that dynamic is a key Fed cut in play but everyone likes stronger growth too (as long as it is not inflationary). The major US stock indices are advancing higher once again with the small-cap Russell 2000

I saw on social media some influencers explaining how you should be aware of the news even if you trade using only technical analysis. It’s good that this topic is mentioned, but the problem is that the education provided is at a very basic level and it can set you up for failure. What you

Bank of America observes that GBP/USD is starting to break its secular downtrend, which has been in place since 2008. Recent technical signals suggest a potential rally towards 1.40, contingent on a sustained break above key resistance levels and the 200-week SMA. Key Points: Secular Downtrend: GBP/USD has been in a secular downtrend since 2008,

The US dollar is a touch stronger almost across the major FX board. AUD and NZD are weak, but its JPY the clear weakest of the majors. Apart from what has been posted there is no fresh news. The data agenda is basically empty. USD/JPY hit circa 158.50 and has backed off a few tics:

The USDCHF extended higher after the better than expected retail sales. The move higher took the pair above a number of MAs including the 200 bar moving ever done a 4-hour chart at 0.8956, the 100-day moving average 0.8962, and the 200-hour MA at 0.8970. What the pair could not get through was the highest

Gold is trading at $37 and 74% or 1.57% at $2459.70. The high price today reach $2462.50. The move to the upside today has taken the price above the May 20 all-time high price at $2450.10. It is a new record high for the precious metal. Spot gold is up around 19.25% in 2024. Since

The Atlanta Fed GDPNow Q2 growth estimate rises to 2.5% from 2.2% last. In their own words: The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the second quarter of 2024 is 2.5 percent on July 16, up from 2.0 percent on July 10. After this morning’s retail sales report, the

The EUR is the strongest and the AUD is the weakest as the North American session begins.The ECB meets on Thursday with the expectation of no change. The AUDUSD fell below its 100-hour MA yesterday and apart from an early blip above in the Asian session, stayed below that MA and then moved below the

The major European indices are closing the day with declines for the second consecutive day to start the new trading week. A snapshot of the closing levels shows: German DAX -0.35%France CAC, -0.69%UK FTSE 100 -0.22%Spain’s Ibex -0.47%Italy’s FTSE MIB -0.02% As London/European traders exit, the US indices are mixed with the small-cap Russell 2000

The Wall Street Journal is gated but if you can access this it paints a dour outlook for China’s economy: Growth is slowing and becoming more unbalanced, propped up by exports and a gusher of investment into factories, while much of the rest of the economy languishes. Consumers are reining in spending, the housing market

France’s President Macron accepts French governments resignation: Current government is to stay on in caretaker capacity until a new cabinet is formed. Via the presidential office, Renaming Attal as caretaker prime ministerCalled on Republican forces (Not the RN or LFI) to work together to form a new government Following the recent legislative elections in which

Prior was 264.5K (revised to 264.9K)Single detached +2% vs +2% priorMulti-urban starts -12% vs +13% prior This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

Prior was 43Current sales 47 vs 48 priorSix month sales 48 vs 47 prior Lumber prices have been really struggling and that’s not a good sign for any pickup in building this year. A rate cut might start to help in 2025 but I don’t know if 1-2 cuts this year will do it. This

People’s Bank of China USD/CNY reference rate is due around 0115 GMT. The People’s Bank of China (PBOC), China’s central bank, is responsible for setting the daily midpoint of the yuan (also known as renminbi or RMB). The PBOC follows a managed floating exchange rate system that allows the value of the yuan to fluctuate

Fundamental Overview The USD weakened last week following another soft US CPI report and benign Jobless Claims figures. The market not only fully priced in a rate cut in September but also started to price in some chances of a back-to-back rate cut in November. Overall, we had a goldilocks data release with an economy

The Wall Street Journal is reporting that spot Ether ETF trading is likely to begin next week. According the story: The Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) has informed several asset managers that the first U.S. exchange-traded funds (ETFs) holding ether could launch next Tuesday, July 23.The SEC is expected to declare fund-registration statements effective next

Good morning, afternoon and evening all. Any charts, technical analysis, trade ideas, thoughts, views, ForexLive traders would like to share and discuss with fellow ForexLive traders, please do so: This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

In the European session, the only notable event is the Eurozone ZEW, which has been improving steadily since October 2022 and it recently touched the highest level since 2021. The consensus sees a pullback to 48.1 vs. 51.3 prior, but in the big picture it shouldn’t change anything. The attention will then switch to the

Dollar keeps steadier so far on the day, eyes on US retail sales laterUS retail sales gains more attention as Japan eyes big data to interveneBOJ data suggests Japan also intervened in the FX market on 12 JulyEurozone May trade balance €13.9 billion vs €15.0 billion priorGermany July ZEW survey current conditions -68.9 vs -74.5

It’s a very light calendar for the session ahead. Daly is unlikely to say anything that counters what Federal Reserve Chair Powell said on Monday: More from Powell: We don’t want to be too risk averseFed’s Powell: Economy performed really well over the last couple of years This snapshot from the ForexLive economic data calendar,

The Canada CPI came in weaker than expectations. The US retail sales was stronger. That should have sent the USDCAD higher and it did but after moving briefly above 1.3700, the price has rotated back down toward the 200 bar MA on the 4-hour chart at 1.3683. That level will be a close risk level

Market Overview Today’s stock market presents a vivid tableau of contrasts and emerging trends, with tech and consumer sectors showing notable gains while some traditional industries face downturns. A special focus on Tesla and Amazon reflects investor optimism in tech and consumer-driven markets, respectively. 📊 Tech and Consumer Sectors: The Day’s Powerhouses Technology: Apple (AAPL)

The Bank of Canada meets on July 24 and economists are increasingly sure of a rate cut. That’s also reflected in interest rate derivatives which are now showing a 93% probability of a cut. CPI decelerated to 2.7% from 2.9% with core numbers also slowing. The numbers show that the prior month’s upside surprise in

Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco President Mary Daly: Confidence is growing that we are getting nearer to a sustainable pace of getting inflation to 2%I see a policy adjustment over the coming termSome normalisation of policy is a likely outcomeUS economy is slowingInflation is lower but we are not there yetWe are nearer the

Prior month 0.3%Business inventories 0.5% vs 0.3% expectedInventories ex autos 0.0% vs 0.2% prior period This is rarely a market mover but it’s an important number in GDP calculations This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

The euro area trade balance narrowed with the seasonally adjusted number coming in at €12.3 billion on the month. That comes as exports were seen down 2.6% while imports were down 0.1% in May. This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

It’s a blockbuster start to the day for North American traders with two major releases. The US retail sales report is forecast to fall 0.3% with a flat reading ex-autos and the control group up 0.2%. There haven’t been clear signs of consumer weakening but some sentiment measures have deteriorated and airlines have flagged a

US retail sales came in a stronger and the USD has moved higher. The EURUSD, and GBPUSD has made new session lows. The USDJPY, which was up the Asian session, but retraced some of those gains in the early European session, has reversed back to the upside.and is trading to a new session high. In

0730 GMT / 0330 US Eastern time: Bank of France Governor François Villeroy de Galhau, holds presser on the 2023 Balance of payments report. After the election there is a renewed focus on France’s fiscal position. As parties jockey for position and popularity debt is unlikely to shrink, is it? Villeroy will caught between a

Prior month 2.9%CPI m/m -0.1% vs 0.0% expectedPrior m/m +0.6% prior Core measures CPI Bank of Canada core y/y 1.9% vs 1.8% priorCPI Bank of Canada core m/m -0.1% versus 0.6% priorCore CPI m/m SA +0.1% vs 0.3% prior Trim 2.9% versus 2.9% prior Median 2.6% versus 2.8% prior (prior revised to +2.7%)Common 2.3% versus

2024 global GDP unchanged from April at 3.2%2025 boosted to 3.3% from 3.2%US GDP 2024 forecast cut to 2.6% from 2.7%, 2025 forecast unchanged at 1.9%China 2024 forecast raised to 5.0% from 4.6% China 2025 forecast raised to 4.5% from 4.1%Eurozone 2024 raised to +0.9% from +0.8%, 2025 unchanged at 1.5%Japan 2024 forecast lowered to

Prior import prices -0.4% m/m (revised to -0.2%)Import prices y/y 0.0% vs +1.1% priorExport prices m/m -0.5% vs -0.1% expected (prior -0.6%) This is a low-tier release, particularly as this month’s edition comes after CPI and PPI. It shows falling price pressures but itwas released at the same time as a hot retail sales report.

The US consumer flex his muscles again in June with the retail sales control group up 0.9% compared to 0.2% expected — the highest in more than a year. That was part of a broadly-strong US retail report that has underpinned a US dollar rally and raised questions about the path of Fed funds. Pricing

Prior month of 0.1% revised +0.3%Retail sales came in at $704.3B va $704.5B last month. Details: Retail sales 0.0% vs -0.3% estimateRetail sales YoY +2.3%Ex Autos 0.4% vs 0.0% estimatePrior ex autos -0.1% revised to 0.1%Control group 0.9% vs 0.2% estimatePrior month control group 0.4%Ex autos and gas 0.8% vs 0.3% last month. Prior month

German DAX futures -0.4%UK FTSE futures -0.3% US stocks might be continuing to scale to fresh record highs but European indices aren’t really joining in on the party. The concerns after the French election is leaving for quite the hangover still. As for US futures, S&P 500 futures are seen up 0.1% currently. This article

Wall Street Journal info, citing ‘people familiar with the matter’: Elon Musk has said he plans to commit around $45 million a month to a new super political action committee backing former President Donald Trump’s presidential run Trump is getting endorsements from the super-wealthy, keen to not pay taxes. This article was written by Eamonn

There were some decent shoves lower on Friday in USD/JPY but it came after the US PPI report. It wasn’t immediate but it is something worth noting, with the BOJ data suggesting the intervention amount to be ¥2.14 trillion. That is less than what Japan offered on Thursday with the US CPI report as seen

Prior +0.8%HICP +0.9% vs +0.9% y/y prelimPrior +0.8% Slight delay in the release by the source. Core annual inflation is seen at 1.9%, down slightly from 2.0% in May. But at least this is one report that the ECB can be happy about. This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

I posted this during the best Asian time zone, repeating it now with the data due imminently: 1230 GMT / 0830 US Eastern time. Consensus expectations are in the table below. This snapshot is from the ForexLive economic data calendar, access it here. The numbers in the right-most column are the ‘prior’ (previous month/quarter as

Coming up at 1845 GMT / 1445 US Eastern time: Federal Reserve Board Governor Adriana Kugler speaks on “Challenges Facing Economic Measurement and Creative Solutions” before the 21st Annual National Association for Business Economics Foundation Economic Measurement Seminar This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

Even though there was a slight bounce last week, it is tough to be bullish on the kiwi in general currently. The only plausible reason I can think of is perhaps AUD/NZD might be overdue for a correction. Otherwise, the kiwi might be in for more pain moving forward. In the case of NZD/USD, the

Powell reaffirmed that a September rate cut is very much on the cards and that is helping traders to turn the page from the kneejerk reaction to the Trump rally shooting. 10-year yields in the US have now erased the jump from yesterday, falling to near 4.18%. Yields are down 4.8 bps on the day

Japan chief cabinet secretary Hayashi: No comment on forex interventionbelieve forex should reflect fundamentals USD/JPY has risen during the session. Japanese authorities, Hayashi only at this stage, trying to slow the rise: This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

Fundamental Overview The USD weakened across the board last week following another soft US CPI report and benign Jobless Claims figures. The market not only fully priced in a rate cut in September but also started to price in some chances of a back-to-back rate cut in November. Overall, we had a goldilocks data release

The latest yen-tervention efforts are a step out of the norm as Japan looks to be trying out a new strategy. And that is to bank on softer US data in driving down USD/JPY in particular. From earlier: BOJ data suggests Japan also intervened in the FX market on 12 July They stepped in on

Goldman Sachs lowered its forecast for China’s 2024 growth to 4.9% from 5.0%. This follows the poor data yesterday: GDP missed estimates, quite badly, for both q/q and y/y GS offered up some advice the the Chinese government, saying more easing is needed for the rest of 2024, and further fiscal support and property/housing market

Stocks move toward new lows going into the last 101-15 minutes but bounces into the close.Republican Pres. nominee Trump picks JD Vance as his VP running mateCrude oil futures settle at $81.91More from Powell: We don’t want to be too risk averseFed’s Powell: Economy performed really well over the last couple of yearsGoldman Scahs makes

iFX EXPO International 2024 has once again cemented its status as the online trading industry’s supreme stomping ground for pros and leaders from both FX and fintech. The event was a beacon for business collaboration and networking – a haven for growth and development for participants and exhibitors. The expo kicked off this year with

The former Pres. Trump, has nominated JD Vnce as his VP running mate. This is according to the NYTimes and Trumps Vance is a Senator from Ohio. He is 39 year old Vance was once a critic of the former Pres. where he called him “cultural heroin” and “noxious”. He also liked a tweet saying

Prior -73.8Outlook 41.8 vs 42.3 expectedPrior 47.5 Political uncertainty in France and a lack of clarity regarding the ECB’s next monetary policy steps are said to be reasons weighing on economic sentiment in the latest survey. Domestically speaking, a fall in German exports by more than expected is also contributing to the softer mood overall.

There’s not much in it in European morning trade today. The dollar is largely steadier, with USD/JPY coming off a little from around 159.70 in Asia to 158.40 currently. That comes as traders look to be heeding some caution ahead of the US retail sales data later today. From earlier: US retail sales gains more

Finding the ideal forex broker is a critical step for anyone looking to engage in currency trading. The right broker can significantly impact your trading experience and success, offering you the tools, support, and reliability needed to navigate the complex world of forex. Understanding your trading objectives is the first crucial step in finding the

Politics is going to be a can of worms over the next few months. Ugh. Via Axios (a US political website): Sen. Steve Daines (R-Mont.) said Monday that the party should have more of a conversation about former President Trump’s plan for an aggressive tariff regime Daines is referring to the already announced plan from

Just a couple of findings from the latest BofA fund manager survey: Investors stay bullish amid expectations for Fed rate cuts, soft landing68% of investors anticipate a soft landing scenario67% of investors expect no recession in the next 12 monthsStaying long in the “Magnificent Seven” is the most crowded trade stillGeopolitics takes over as the

The Japanese yen is in the spotlight again today, with USD/JPY inching up by 0.4% to 158.65 currently. I outlined more on that here with US retail sales data one to watch later in the day. Besides that, the aussie and kiwi are just a touch softer owing to a bit of a spillover from

Fundamental Overview The USD weakened across the board last week following another soft US CPI report and benign Jobless Claims figures. The market not only fully priced in a rate cut in September but also started to price in some chances of a back-to-back rate cut in November. Overall, we had a goldilocks data release

The People’s Bank of China set the onshore yuan (CNY) reference rate for the trading session ahead. USD/CNY is the onshore yuan. Its permitted to trade plus or minus 2% from this daily reference rate.CNH is the offshore yuan. USD /CNH has no restrictions on its trading range.A significantly stronger or weaker rate than expected

Eurostoxx -0.8%Germany DAX -0.7%France CAC 40 -0.9%UK FTSE -0.5%Spain IBEX -1.0%Italy FTSE MIB -0.8% The hangover from the French election results has deflated much of the optimistic mood in European indices up until June. For French stocks itself, we are seeing price levels hold in a bit of a range after the plunge last month:

BlackRock CEO Larry Fink spoke in a US media interview (CNBC), endorsing the cryptocurrency: “My opinion five years ago was wrong”“I believe bitcoin is a legitimate financial instrument”BTC should be part of every investor’s portfolioan instrument you invest in when you’re more frightened … when you believe that countries are debasing their currency by excess

The price of crude oil futures is settling at $81.91. That is down $-0.30 or -0.36%. The high price reached $82.58. The low price was at $81.47. Technically looking at the daily chart the price remains below a topside trendline near $84.75. On the downside, the rising 100-day moving average is at $80.54 and remains

There is one to really take note of on the day, as highlighted in bold. It is for EUR/USD and seen at the 1.0900 level once again. That is likely to help contain price action and limit any overextensions beyond the figure level, at least until we get to the US retail sales data. Besides

ECB speakers Tuesday include Bank of France Governor François Villeroy de GalhauHere comes the yen verbal intervention – Hayashi says no comment on FX interventionUS data focus for Tuesday – June 2024 retail sales – the range of expectations to watchFed’s Kugler is speaking on TuesdayPBOC sets USD/ CNY reference rate for today at 7.1328

Rick Rieder is BlackRock chief investment officer of global fixed income. He spoke with CNBC on his thoughts on Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) rate cuts to come, and why: on inflation, he said the US is “at a place that is much more like 2019, much, much closer to normalcy” On timing: Said probably

ICYMI the data from China yesterday, GDP missed estimates, quite badly, for both q/q and y/y. Pundits say that it calls into question China hitting their full-year target of ‘around’ 5%. Which I don’t think will happen, as China ALWAYS hits its GDP target. If you know what I mean. The third plenum of the

The pair is seeing a modest bounce today, up 0.4% to 158.65 currently. There’s not much of a catalyst but it does come amid a rebound off the upwards trendline for this year. So, one can argue on that from a technical standpoint. After Japan intervened last week, it’s now once again a war of

On Tuesday at 1230 GMT, which is 0830 US Eastern time, we get retail sales for June 2024. Consensus expectations are in the table below. This snapshot is from the ForexLive economic data calendar, access it here. The numbers in the right-most column are the ‘prior’ (previous month/quarter as the case may be) result. The

The broader S&P and Nasdaq indices pushed lower toward the end of day, but then bounced back over the last 5 minutes to close more comfortably in the black for the day. The S&P did trade in negative territory in the last 10 minutes of trading at -0.59 points (to 5614.75), but bounced and is

Reuters with the info, citing industry sources: U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) tells issuers ether ETF approval likely by Monday July 22Ether ETF issuers must still file final S-1 documents, industry sources saySpot ether ETFs likely to begin trading Tuesday July 23, industry sources say eth update This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan

CEO of the American Petroleum Institute spoke with Dow Jones/Market Watch, said the oil industry was very much in favour of Trump’s first term agenda included “a real focus on increased American development of our resources, and I think the opposite has been true of the Biden administration” But tariff proposals for Trump’s second term

Vance is joining Trump in the contest for the White House: Republican Pres. nominee Trump picks JD Vance as his VP running mate In April Vance expressed support for a lower USD, citing more competitive exports. This via a reporter at POLITICO: Keep an eye out folks for clear policy preferences that’ll act as headwinds/tailwinds

The USDJPY fumbled up and down in most of the US session, but a crack lower was strong enough to fall below the double-bottom and 61.8% of the move up from the June low near 157.364. The low-price extended down to 157.15 which was the same low going back to June 17 when the price

I appreciate a political establishment that’s able to keep a secret just 2.5 hours before the decision is set to be announced. The odds of J.D. Vance winning jumped last week and that continued today after a motorcade picked him up. However the latest shift is a jump in the odds for Virginia Governor Glenn

Stocks have rotated lower and trade to new lows for the day. The S&P index has now moved back below its prior record closing level at 5633.92. The low price just reached 5626.62, and is trying to bounce back higher. The price trades above and below the 5633.92 level over the last few minutes of

The NZDUSD is trading in a neutral technical area defined by a series of moving averages. On the topside: 100-bar MA on the 4-hour chart at 0.61025200-bar MA on the 4-hour chart at 0.6124 On the downside: 200-day MA at 0.6078100-day MA at 0.6064 The current price sits between those levels at 0.60877 between those

The USDCAD stalled at a key support level last week. That level came against the 38.2% retracement of the move up from the December low to the April high at 1.35899. The inability to move below that level gave the buyers the go-ahead to push higher. That move to the upside today has moved into

CLICK HERE to watch LIVE: This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

As Adam pointed out in his earlier post, the race is now focused on three: JD Vance (Ohio)Doug Burgum (South Dekota)Marco Rubio (Florida). This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

Fed Powell is talking at the Economic Club of Washington: Economy performed really well over the last couple of yearsThis year expected economy to slow and inflation to continue to make progress. Something like that is happeninglabor market no tighter than before the pandemic2Q of inflation does represent progress with three better readingsNow that inflation

Japanese markets are closed for the public holiday in Japan today, its Marine Day. Marine Day, or “Umi no Hi,” is a national holiday in Japan celebrated on the third Monday of July. It honors the ocean’s importance to Japan as an island nation and recognizes maritime activities and the economic and cultural significance of

The Fed blackout kicks off on Friday at midnight and there is little chance of a rate surprise unless it’s tipped by officials first. The main opportunity to do that comes today at a 12:30 pm ET appearance by Powell at the Economic Club of Washington. Barring that, we will hear from a few officials.

It’s very hard to know what the economy is going to doI have always felt there was a pathway to getting inflation back to 2% without the kind of pain that has been typicalA hard landing scenario isn’t a likely scenarioI am very happy doing this jobWill stay in office until May of 2026When the

The dollar might’ve opened with a slight gap higher today but didn’t do much with it. It is arguably a kneejerk reaction to the Trump shooting but did that really change the big picture outcome? Not quite I would say, at least considering Trump was already odds on to defeat Biden in November. But this

On Monday, the Empire State manufacturing index for the U.S. will be released, and the focus will then shift to Fed Chair Powell, who will speak at the Economic Club of Washington DC, with audience questions expected. Tuesday will bring inflation data for Canada and retail sales data for the U.S. while Wednesday’s focus will

Prior report -6.00new orders -0.6 versus -1.0 last monthprices paid +26.5 versus +24.5 in Juneemployment index -7.9 versus -8.7 in June6-month business conditions Index +25.8 versus +30.1 in June (in June it was a two-year high) Other details: shipments 3.9 versus 3.3 last month.Prices received 6.1 versus 7.1 last monthUnfilled orders -11.2 versus 1.0 last

Fundamental Overview The USD weakened across the board last week following another soft US CPI report and benign Jobless Claims figures. The market not only fully priced in a rate cut in September but also started to price in some chances of a back-to-back rate cut in November. Overall, we had a goldilocks data release

Headlines: Powell speech the main event to watch to start the weekTreasury yields jump higher to start the week after Trump assassination attemptEurozone May industrial production -0.6% vs -1.0% m/m expectedSwitzerland June producer and import prices 0.0% vs -0.3% m/m priorSNB total sight deposits w.e. 12 July CHF 458.9 bn vs CHF 453.4 bn priorFirms

Business sentiment 21% vs 17% priorFirms’ sales outlooks are mostly unchanged from last quarter and remain more pessimistic than average Businesses tied to discretionary spending reported particularly weak sales expectations, while those tied to essential spending see population growth continuing to benefit their sales.Investment spending plans also remain below averageThe share of firms reporting labour

Prior was +2.4%Manufacturing sales +0.4% vs +0.2% expectedPrior manufacturing sales +1.1%Wholesale inventories +0.9%Inventory-to-sales ratio increased from 1.53 in April to 1.55 in May Sales declined in five of the seven subsectors in wholesale sales, with the largest decline coming from the motor vehicle and motor vehicle parts and accessories subsector, which fell 3.8%. Wholesale sales

Closing changes: Stoxx 600 -1.0%German DAX -0.8%UK FTSE 100 -0.9%French CAC -1.2%Italy MIB -0.4%Spain IBEX -0.8% The Stoxx 600 isn’t quite ready to break out yet. This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

Betting markets have boosted Trump’s Presidential odds after the failed assassination attempt on the weekend. In equities, shares of the meme-stock social network $DJT are up 70% premarket and I would expect some others to follow along. For the broader market, S&P 500 futures are up 22 points and I wonder if that’s underpriced given

Next week’s Bank of Canada rate decision is a big one. The market is pricing in a 76% chance of a rate cut, which is a contract high and has been steadily creeping up. Recent data has been slipping and the housing market is suffering. Critically, this could be the second-consecutive cut and could signal

Good morning, afternoon and evening all. Any charts, technical analysis, trade ideas, thoughts, views, ForexLive traders would like to share and discuss with fellow ForexLive traders, please do so: This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

If you go by PredictIt, it looks like Peter Thiel might get his guy in the #2 position in the White House. Hurting Vance might be his previous comments about Trump, where he called him “cultural heroin” and “noxious”. He also liked a tweet saying Trump committed “serial sexual assault.” “I’m a Never Trump guy,”

As the North American session begins, the EUR is the strongest and the NZD is the weakest. The USD is modestly higher after the shocking assassination attempt on Presidential candidate Trump over the weekend. With expectations of a Trump victory rising, the knee-jerk reaction by the markets was for higher stocks and higher yields –

Fundamental Overview The USD weakened across the board last week following another soft US CPI report and benign Jobless Claims figures. The market not only fully priced in a rate cut in September but also started to price in some chances of a back-to-back rate cut in November. Overall, we had a goldilocks data release

US politics is in focus to start the week and we’re now seeing markets gearing towards a Trump victory. He was already odds on to beat Biden if the latter is to stick it through to head into battle in November. But after the failed assassination attempt over the weekend, Trump’s odds have soared much

Gold is at the best levels of the day, up $23 to $2433 with about half those gains in the past few minutes. You can always craft a narrative for gold because it’s such a chameleon. I’d imagine the bulls today are looking at bonds and a Republican sweep and seeing higher fiscal spending and

The USDCHF moved higher in the Asian session on the buying after the weekend assassination attempt. However, after testing a cluster of moving averages, buyers turned to sellers and has now pushed the price all the way down to new session lows, has breached below the 50% midpoint of the move up from the June

Happy Monday and certainly a happier one than it could have been. The Fed chair spoke twice last week so it’s difficult to imagine he will change his tune but he did get the CPI since his second day of testimony so there is a chance he tilts more dovishly. He speaks at 12:30 pm

Eurostoxx -0.6%Germany DAX -0.4%France CAC 40 -0.9%UK FTSE -0.8%Spain IBEX -0.6%Italy FTSE MIB -0.5% For French stocks, it is getting checked back at short-term resistance (as seen below) after the rebound last week. The Eurogroup will be discussing fiscal issues to start the week, so that is perhaps keeping regional investors more guarded. It’s a

Politics is truly a game of inches. We were an inch away from a very different Monday morning but the bullet missed and now a Florida judge has dismissed Trump’s classified documents case citing violation of the appointments clause. I’m not exactly sure what that clause is but I’m told it will be appealed. However

Today’s stock market presented a patchwork of performances, with significant movement observed in the technology sector, particularly semiconductors and consumer electronics. Tech and Consumer Electronics Lead the Charge The heatmap of today’s trading activity highlights a robust performance in the tech sector. Apple (AAPL) significantly outpaced its peers with a gain of 2.26%, indicating strong

The US stocks are opening with gains. Markets are shrugging off the assassination attempt and at the same time, increasing former Pres. Trumps odds at being elected President. That implies a softer Fed (new Fed Chair?), less regulation, lower taxes. The negative is less immigration and deportation of illegal immigrants, and higher tariffs. That may

The dust is settling after the assassination attempt of former Pres. Trump. The yield curve has steepened as the expectations are for higher tariffs (trade war/isolationism), deportation of immigrants and less immigration (potentially inflationary) and perhaps getting a new Fed chair who would look to lower rates. Technically, both the EURUSD and the GBPUSD extended

The European Central Bank statement is due on Thursday 18 July at 1215 GMT / 0815 US Eastern time no change to interest rates is widely expected Lagarde’s press conference follows a half hour later. From the Deutsche Bank preview, in brief: we expect the ECB to leave policy unchangedECB is not on a pre-determined

This comes after the miss on Q2 numbers earlier today here. Goldman Sachs is cutting their 2024 GDP forecast for China to 4.9%, down from 5.0% previously. Meanwhile, JP Morgan slashed their estimate to 4.7% compared to 5.2% previously. On the revision, JP Morgan continues to argue that the Chinese economy remains “fragile, unstable and

ICYMI, China’s poor Q2 GDP data is here: China June Industrial output +5.3% y/y (expected +5.0%) Retail sales +2.0% (3.3%% exp) The economic growth data missed both q/q and y/y. NBS spokesperson: 5% GDP growth in h1 ‘hard won’Businesses face relatively big pressures and key sectors face many risks since this yearChina’s economy remains key

China new home prices continue their slump. Despite all the support measures being provided for the sector recovery is not yet in sight. On a brighter note used home prices dropped 0.85% m/m, slightly slower than the drop in May. Still to come: Economic calendar Asia Monday, 15 July 2024 – Chinese economic activity data,

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Prior -0.1%; revised to 0.0% Euro area industrial output slumped by less than estimated in May with the breakdown as follows: This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

The PBoC has kept the 1-year MLF interest rate unchanged at 2.5%, as expected Injects 100bn yuan via a one-year MLF 103bn yuan come due on Wednesdaynet drain of 3bn yuan in MLF – What is the MLF? The PBOC’s MLF rate is a benchmark interest rate that banks in China can use to borrow

Looking at the breakdown for the month, producer prices were up 0.1% but import prices were marked down by 0.2%. In particular, there were lower prices for petroleum products, petroleum and natural gas, as well as for motor vehicles. This was offset by higher prices in non-ferrous metals and products made therefrom, green coffee, leather

Domestic sight deposits CHF 450.3 bn vs CHF 444.4 bn prior After weeks of decline, Swiss sight deposits look to be stabilising a bit. That might indicate the SNB is staying more on the sidelines in the last two to three weeks. Here’s the trend: This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

European Central Bank meeting this week – preview – rate cuts seen September and DecemberChina plenum meeting against the background of calls for more economic stimulusChina Stats spokesperson says demand not sufficientChina June Industrial output +5.3% y/y (expected +5.0%) Retail sales +2.0% (3.3%% exp)China June new house prices -4.5% y/y (prior -3.9%)The PBoC has kept

Fundamental Overview The USD weakened across the board last week following another soft US CPI report and benign Jobless Claims figures. The market not only fully priced in a rate cut in September but also started to price in some chances of a back-to-back rate cut in November. Overall, we had a goldilocks data release

Rate cuts by year-end Fed: 63 bps (95% probability of no change at the next meeting) ECB: 48 bps (96% probability of no change at the next meeting) BoE: 51 bps (50% probability of rate cut at the next meeting) BoC: 62 bps (75% probability of rate cut at the next meeting) RBNZ: 46 bps

In case you missed the big news over the weekend in the US: Former Pres. Trump rushed off stage after apparent shots firedStatement from Former Pres. Trump after assassination attempt Love him. Hate him. It is no excuse to want another person dead. Trump ended up just getting a graze on the ear by some

Don’t forget – it’s a big day in China! It’s the MLF day in China – No rate cut expected from the People’s Bank of ChinaEconomic calendar Asia Monday, 15 July 2024 – Chinese economic activity data, also Q2 GDP *** People’s Bank of China USD/CNY reference rate is due around 0115 GMT. The People’s

German DAX futures -0.3%French CAC 40 futures -0.5%UK FTSE futures -0.2% This comes as bond yields are jumping higher as we look towards the session ahead. Treasuries were closed in Asia amid the holiday in Japan but 10-year yields are now marked up by 4.6 bps to 4.233% on the day. US futures are calmer

Unfortunately, I reckon we might get a repeat performance to his comments last week in Congress. Sure, there was the US CPI report in between that and now. But I don’t think Powell will choose to rock the boat again today. It will be too early to be that confident on the inflation outlook, or

New Zealand Performance of Services Index for June 2024, via BusiznessNZ, performed even worse than the appalling May report. June came in at 40.2, second month in a row the lowest level of activity for the sector for a non-COVID lockdown month since the survey began in 2007 prior 43.0Employment sub index @45.6 was at

As it’s usually the case for Mondays, the calendar today is prett empty. In the European session we will get the Eurozone Industrial Production data but that’s not a market moving release and it won’t change anything for the ECB. In the American session, we get the BoC Business Outlook Survey and we will hear

Fundamental Overview Bitcoin rallied strongly over the weekend after a failed attempt to assassinate the former US President Trump. The market reacted positively to the event because he’s been a supporter of the crypto industry and Trump’s odds of winning the election soared. Moreover, we got the news that the German government finally offloaded all

The People’s Bank of China set its Medium-term Lending Facility (MLF) rate on the 15th of each month. The rate is currently 2.5%, and there are wide expectations of no change to the rate today. Also from China today are Q2 GDP and June economic activity data: Economic calendar Asia Monday, 15 July 2024 –

Via Westpac on their outlook for the Reserve Bank of New Zealand. RBNZ’s July OCR Review was markedly less hawkish than May. The RBNZ’s growth forecasts seem to have been significantly downgraded and crucially the RBNZ seems more confident that annual inflation will be below 3% quite soon. The recent QSBO survey likely crystalised the

UBS are wary of much more weakness ahead for the yen in the near term. Citing the backdrop of the rise in JPY after the US CPI report, helped along by Bank of Japan intervention leaning into the weakness for USD/JPY, UBS cite: they expect the differential between US/Japan, but to do so more meaningfully

Key economic indicators from China for June 2024. Industrial Production +5.3% y/y expected 5%, prior 5.6% Retail Sales +2.0% y/y, a substantial miss expected 3.3%, prior 3.7% Fixed Asset Investment (YTD) 3.9% y/y expected 3.9%, prior 4% Unemployment rate 5.0% expected 5.0%, prior 5.0% Q2 GDP 4.7% y/y – big miss expected 5.1%, prior 5.3%

There are a couple to take note of, as highlighted in bold. The first ones are for EUR/USD, centered closely in and around the 1.0900 mark. The ones at the figure level are quite huge in size, so they could act as a magnet on price action for the session ahead. That at least until

Bank of England Monetary Policy Committee member Dhingra spoke on a podcast. Reuters with the info. demand is too soft for inflation to rise sharplynow is the time to start normalising interest rates so we can finally stop squeezing living standards This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

The focus is on Chair Powell, who has recewtnly indicated rate cuts, or at least one, are on the way. This has led to rapid pricing of a September cut. Times below are in GMT / US Eastern time format: 1630/1230 Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell participates in conversation hosted by the Economic Club of

US economic research analysts at Fitch with the heads up on earlier Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) rate cuts: The Fed will be worried (about) additional weakness in the labor market down the roadPowell signalled that the balance of risk between the unemployment rate and inflation is now two-sided and the labour market is now

A little bit of movement in forex markets in the VERY early morning here – its only just after 8am in New Zealand. The movement is in response to the weekend news of a man shot to death at a Trump rally. The shooter was also shot and killed. Greg was on it over the

US President Biden addressing the nation from the White House Oval Office: we need to lower the temperature in politicsno place for this kind of violence, no exceptionsI will continue to speak up for US democracy and the rule of law This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

ICYMI, China’s poor Q2 GDP data is here in this post, a miss for both q/q and y/y: China June Industrial output +5.3% y/y (expected +5.0%) Retail sales +2.0% (3.3%% exp) The reasons behind relatively slow growth in China are not mysterious: protracted property downturnthe property sector is debt-riddenhousehold consumption is weak The poor data

The People’s Bank of China set the onshore yuan (CNY) reference rate for the trading session ahead. USD/CNY is the onshore yuan. Its permitted to trade plus or minus 2% from this daily reference rate.CNH is the offshore yuan. USD /CNH has no restrictions on its trading range.A significantly stronger or weaker rate than expected

Trump is seeking votes from the crypto community, I posted on his efforts here: Trump to speak at Bitcoin 2024 conference in Nashville in late July Political violence is back on the menu in the US. First was the January 6 insurrection which resulted in the injuries and deaths of a number of law enforcement

Biden will be addressing the political violence over the weekend with Trump getting shot at. Biden unlikely to make market-relevant comments. Except to the extent that the weekend events have boosted the USD, Bitcoin, and hit USTs. Trump sustained a graze to his ear. Thankfully nothing more serious for him. Sadly, an attendee at his

A Goldman Sachs Asset Management view on US stoicks for the rest of 2024, in a nutshell: “What do we expect for the rest of the year? Essentially a flattish market” “Our view is that the full-year market return has been achieved in the first half” Citing: earnings growth of the first half of 2024

Note – it’s a holiday in Japan today, markets are closed there. On the data calendar China is the focus. The ‘activity’ data (retail sales, industrial production and investment) for June is expected to have shown a slightly reduced pace of improvement from May. As a heads up, this week brings the third plenum of

This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

UPCOMING EVENTS: Monday: New Zealand Services PMI, PBoC MLF, China Industrial Production and Retail Sales, Eurozone Industrial Production, BoC Business Outlook Survey, Fed Chair Powell. Tuesday: Eurozone ZEW, Canada CPI, US Retail Sales, US NAHB Housing Market Index.Wednesday: New Zealand Q2 CPI, UK CPI, US Housing Starts and Building Permits, US Industrial Production and Capacity

Former President Donald Trump was escorted off stage by Secret Service agents at a rally in Butler, PA, after a series of loud noises, possibly gunshots, were heard. Trump was bloodied but reportedly fine. The source of the noises and if anyone else was injured remains unclear. The rally was declared a crime scene and

Week Ahead 15th-19th July: Mon: Republican Convention, Holiday: Japanese Marine Day, Eurogroup Meeting, Eurogroup Informal meeting ofEnergy Ministers; Chinese GDP (Q2), Industrial Output/Retail Sales (Jun), Swiss PPI (Jun), US NY FedManufacturing (Jul), EZ Industrial Production (Jun); China’s Third Plenum (15-18th July)Tue: Republican Convention; German Wholesale Price Index (Jun), ZEW (Jul), EZ Trade Balance (May), US

Bitcoin technical analysis in this simple 4h chart BTCUSD chart and technical analysis – watch these key levels Bitcoin trading analysis: key points and strategies 🤑📉📈 Bulls’ strategy: 📈 Breakout from yellow bull flag:Target Point 1: Around $59,850.Target Point 2: If Point 1 is breached, aim for approximately $62,000 (anchored VWAP from 22 Jan 2024).Bullish

Crude oil futures are settling the day at $82.21. That is down $0.41 or -0.50%. For the trading week, the price is down -1.21% after closing last week at $83.16. The decline is the first after four consecutive weeks of gains which took the price up from a low during the week of June 3

The US stocks are trading near highs after some declines yesterday. The correction was one day – at least for the S&P and the Nasdaq. The Dow industrial Average rose yesterday as did the small-cap Russell 2000. Today, all the major indices are enjoying strong gains. For the S&P, it erased its -49.37 or -0.88%

The Dow Industrial Average reached an intraday high of 40,257, which would have been sufficient for a record close. The previous record close was set on May 17, when the index closed above 40,000 for the first time ever at 40,003.60. However, late-day selling pushed the price below 40,000, before a last-minute rally brought it

The 2-10 year spread has not been positive since July 2022. The most recent high close (most narrow negative spread) is coming near -16 basis point. Today the spread rose to -27.3 basis point which would be its highest close since January 29. Since June 25, the spread has moved from -50 basis points to

The Dow Industrial Average average can’t close at a record but closes just above 40,000The 2-10 year yield rises to -27.3 basis points. A close here will be highest since Jan 29Crude oil futures settle at $82.21Stock earnings for the quarter were kicked off. What’s on tap for next week?What happens after the first rate

J.P. Morgan, Wells Fargo, and Citigroup kicked off the earnings season today. Yesterday PepsiCo did release its earnings as well. So how does next week’s earnings calendar look? Monday, July 15 Goldman SachsBlackRock Tuesday, Tuesday, July 16 Bank of AmericaUnited health groupProgressiveMorgan Stanley. Charles Schwab.PNCInteractive BrokersJB Hunt Wednesday, July 17 Johnson & JohnsonUnitedAlcoaDiscoverKinder Morgan Thursday,

Won’t say whether forex intervention was conductedWon’t say whether a rate check was conductedCan’t ignore the fact that there was a one-sided speculative move USD/JPY is trading down 100 pips to 157.80 today and it looks like there was at least one round of intervention in the second day of action. This article was written

We’re in the midst of an old-fashioned breakout in the pound. It’s now up in nine of the past 10 days, including three sizeable gains in a row. The election uncertainty has cleared and Starmer isn’t promising tax hikes so the market is happy to invest in a place with a bit of political stability

UMich consumer sentiment data is due at the top of the hour and the consensus is a slight improvement to 68.5 from 68.2. Keep an eye on the 1-year and 5-year inflation numbers too as both priors were at 3.0%. This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

Business NZ Manufacturing PMI for June 2024 collapses to 41.1, its 15th consecutive month of contraction prior 47.2 The report from Business NZ is titled “Freefall”. Sounds about right. New Zealand’s manufacturing sector PMI: third lowest value for a non-COVID lockdown monthBusinessNZ’s Director, Advocacy Catherine Beard said that the freefall in activity from May to

USD/JPY is back near the post-CPI lows in what looks line another round of intervention from Japanese authorities. BOJ data suggests Japan may have spent over ¥3 trillion on intervention yesterday, or about $22 billion, which is more than I would have expected given the momentum they had on their side. It suggests that dollar

Via local media: Two Russian-born Australian citizens have been charged with espionage, marking the first time charges have been laid under laws introduced in 2018. The pair — a married couple — were arrested as part of a joint investigation between the Australian Federal Police (AFP) and the Australian Security Intelligence Commission (ASIO). Police allege

Democratic House leader Hakeem Jeffries met with the President yesterday and released a readout today. It certainly doesn’t read like an endorsement. Dear Colleague:Over the past several days, House Democrats have engaged in a thoughtful and extensive discussion about the future of our country, during a time when freedom, democracy and the economic well-being of

USD/JPY sellers hit the market yet-again, once again sending the pair down to 157.50 but failing to break the earlier low. This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

If there is someone on CNBC, that I like, it is Josh Brown from Ritholz Wealth Management. He does his homework. He is not opposed to using technicals (in fact he often relies on it). He accepts defeat. He lets his wins run. He is not perfect of course, but he makes a lot of

This week’s CPI data showed that China has room for policy stimulus and its lackluster economic performance certainly argues for it. There is some optimism with some Chinese stocks climbing this week (from low levels). The leadership meeting will outline efforts to promote advanced manufacturing, revise the tax system to curb debt risks, manage a

Last June was -347B This is a small slice of good news but there are big questions about the US fiscal path with 6-7% deficit in a strong economy. This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

The GBPUSD, EURUSD, and USDJPY have all stretched to key targets today as the USD got hit. However, after reaching those target there has been some modest profit taking/selling/buying (dependent on the direction of the pair). The NZDUSD is also in that boat as it returned to the 200 bar MA on the 4-hour chart

Market Overview Today’s trading session reveals a mixed yet resilient market landscape, with notable performances across various sectors. The stock market heatmap offers a colorful glimpse into the day’s performances, indicating a day of both opportunities and setbacks. Technology and Semiconductors: A Spotlight on Resilience The technology sector displayed commendable resilience, led by stalwarts such

The USD has run back to the downside, after a brief move higher after the higher than expected PPI data: GBPUSD: The GBPUSD is extending to a new high for the year and new high going back to July 27 when the price hit 1.2995 (just short of 1.3000). The old high and the natural

USD/JPY dropped to circa 157.77 on that round of intervention. Its surged back again. Liquidity is thin, which is what happens when intervention occurs, dealers do not want to get caught out. Think about it … 159.40 to 157.80 in a few blinks of the eye. Then back up again a few minutes later. Take

The EURUSD, like the GBPUSD, has stretched to new highs as European traders look toward the exits for the week. The move higher takes the price toward the high from June 2024 at 1.0915 and into a longer swing area between 1.0909 and 1.0918. That area will need to be broken to increase the bullish

That fits roughly with the same amount spent during their intervention efforts on 1 May last month as seen here. So, it is not to say that they tried to pull off a half-assed attempt yesterday. As a total in May, Japan spent a record ¥9.8 trillion – which surpassed the total used in 2022

Judging by US indices, which keep reaching new highs, the economy might seem to be thriving. However, the reality is more complicated. Growth rates are gradually slowing, which is evident not only because job creation reached only 150,000 jobs, below the 165,000 expected. More importantly, the ISM manufacturing and services indices fell below 50, and

CNN with the report on NATO nerves over China-owned infrastructure in Europe. NATO countries now see those investments as a liabilityThe fear, according to one US official, is that Beijing could use the infrastructure it owns in Europe to provide material assistance to Russiadiscussions on taking action on infrastructure, according to three officials involved in

The GBPUSD continues to stretch to the July 27 hi target at 1.2995. That is just short of the natural resistance at 1.3000. The high just reach 1.29898. There should be willing sellers/profit taking against that level with stops on a move above. Risk is low against the dual technical levels. Yesterday, the price moved

Headlines: Japan top FX diplomat Kanda declines to comment on suspected intervention yesterdayBOJ data suggests Japan may have spent over ¥3 trillion on intervention yesterdayWhat has changed after the US CPI report?Japan to slash economic growth forecast later this month – reportMore Japanese households anticipate prices to be higher in the next year – BOJ

First, a look at what got us here. Thursday US time: Japan intervened in the forex market – report Asia, Friday morning: ICYMI – the new angle Japan is taking on yen interventionJapan’s Kanda says recent yen moves are somewhat rapidUSD/JPY smashed lower, back under 158.50 – Another round of JPY interventionUSD/JPY wild swings continue,

The US producer price index rose 2.6% y/y in the largest annual rise since March 2023. The news initially caught the market by surprise and gave a lift to the US dollar. However the move was short-lived because it appears as though there was a one-off skew in the numbers. All the gains were driven

Prior was 68.2 Details: Current conditions 64.1 vs 65.9 priorExpectations 67.2 vs 69.6 prior1-year inflation 2.9% vs 3.0% prior5-year inflation 2.9% vs 3.0% Here’s the problem with the UMich survey This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

The NASDAQ has had a quick rebound today and currently trades up around 200 points or 1.08%. The high prices just reached 18486.45. As outlined in the video yesterday (“What would increase the bearishness in the Nasdaq today and going forward“), the low price yesterday broke below its 50-hour moving average, but fell short of

There are a couple to take note of, as highlighted in bold. The first being for EUR/USD at the 1.0850 level. That could be a bit of a magnet for price action and if anything else, limit any major pullback to the gains from yesterday. That is before the expiries roll off later in the

Good morning, afternoon and evening all. Any charts, technical analysis, trade ideas, thoughts, views, ForexLive traders would like to share and discuss with fellow ForexLive traders, please do so: This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

ICYMI, Adam had the breaking info: Japan intervened in the forex market – reportThe new strategy appears to be to wait for help — this time from US data — and go with the momentum. Going with the flow worked out well this time, its created a bit of a ‘gap’ now. 159-161, give or

Especially concerned about negative impacts of weak yen As per usual, they are keeping up this facade of being “unable to confirm nor deny” the intervention move. But after the purported leak yesterday here, they know and we know that these comments are just for show. This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

Goldman Sachs Assest Management on the US CPI report: One word: PivotalWith three inflation prints between this morning and September’s Fed meeting, today’s was crucial in helping the Federal Reserve gain confidence that inflation is still moving in the right direction *** The recap of a huge day in the US is here: Forexlive Americas

The EURGBP is trading to a new low going back to August 2022, and in the processes testing the high of a swing area between 0.8377 and 0.8392. The load today took out the low from June at 0.8397, but only by a few pips. Are the buyers leaning against the level?. Can they bounce

As the North American session begins, the GBP is the strongest and the JPY is the weakest. Today, the US PPI will be released. Yesterday, the CPI data came in lower than expected on both the headline and the core. The PPI data is expected to show 0.1% MoM/2.3% YoY (vs 2.2% last month) for

Prior month 20.5% (versus 2.2% expected) revised to 23.4%. Last month was a record high level of building permits at $13.4 billion.Building permits -12.2% to $11.7 billion. Last month was a record at 13.4 by dollars led by a sharp rise in British Columbia multiunit permits.Residential -16.3% to $7.1 billion in May. British Columbia fell

The US PPI data came in higher than expectations, but after a quick move higher, the USD has moved back lower in the three major currency pairs – the EURUSD, USDJPY and GBPUSD. In the kickstart video, I take a look at those three currency pairs from a technical perspective. What are the levels in

Major US stock indices are marginally higher in early US trading. Yesterday the NASDAQ tumbled lower by about 1.8%, but the small-cap Russell 2000 surged by over 3%. A snapshot of the market nine minutes into the open is showing: Dow Industrial Average average up 156.41 points or 0.39% at 39910.17.S&P index up 11.70 points

It’s been clear the Canadian housing market has been struggling in the past couple months but now we’re getting the hard data. The Canadian Real Estate Association reports that June sales fell 9.4% y/y. Seller are still mostly holding out for higher prices but inventories are building — particularly in condos and new builds. The

US June CPI +3.0% vs +3.1% y/y expectedJapan intervened in the forex market – reportUS initial jobless claim 222K vs 236K estimateFed’s Musalem: CPI data shows ‘encouraging further progress’SF Fed Pres.Mary Daly: Likely some policy adjustments will be warrantedCanadian finance minister could walk the plank. Mark Carney could be tappedUS June Federal budget deficit -66.0B

Highest since March 2023Prior was +2.2% y/yPPI final demand +0.2% m/m vs +0.1% expected Prior was -0.2% (revised to 0.0%)PPI ex food/energy +3.0% vs +2.5% y/y expectedPrior ex food/energy revised to 2.6% from 2.3%PPI ex food/energy +0.4% vs +0.2% m/m expectedPrior ex food/energy +0.0% (revised to +0.3%)Full release Well this is a curveball. Had it

Japan chief cabinet secretary Hayashi No comment on fx interventionWon’t comment on forex levelsImportant for currencies to move in stable manner reflecting fundamentalsRapid fx moves undesirableClosely watching fx movesReady to take all possible measures on forexUp to BOJ to decide details of monetary policy USD/JPY update: This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

A note from Goldman Sachs on US stocks, comments ion brief: August equity-market flows are typically the slowest of the yearmarkets have historically pulled back from mid-July highson guard for a “late summer equity market correction” if earnings disappoint and investors begin to focus on the autumn election resultspain trade has shifted from the upside

Prior +3.6%HICP +3.5% vs +3.5% y/y prelimPrior +3.8% Core annual inflation is seen at 3.0%, which is unchanged from May. This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

The last 16 hours have been a bit off colour for Japan in their attempts to stem the depreciation in the yen. For one, they reportedly intervened in the market to try and capitalise on a softer US CPI report during the start of US trading. Then, they even allowed for said move to be

Shares of Tesla are poised for a 2% decline at the open as the rest of the market wrestles with results from financials (mixed bag there with Citi +3% and JPM -1.2%). Spoos are up 3 points. The decline in TSLA follows an 8% drop yesterday that came on the heels of a sensational 11-day

Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago President Austan Goolsbee is pretty happy with the CPI report for June: June CPI report ‘excellent,’ improvement on shelter inflation ‘profoundly encouraging’This is what a path to 2% inflation looks likeAs inflation falls, leaving Fed policy rate steady means Fed is tightening policyThe reason to tighten policy would be if

Yesterday, we got some goldilocks US data with another soft US CPI report and good US Jobless Claims. First of all, better than expected jobless claims should quell fears of a deteriorating labour market, at least in the short term. One thing to note is that the data might have been distorted by the shorter

Happy Friday. The Fed calendar is bare today but we will get a couple of notable releases: 8:30 am ET PPI10 am ET Umich prelim consumer sentiment I can’t see PPI being a market mover but a hot reading would at least stall the momentum that has Fed funds pricing in 61 bps of easing

Fundamental Overview Yesterday, we got some goldilocks data as the US CPI report came in on the softer side and the US Jobless Claims remained stable. Despite this, the Nasdaq sold off and erased all the gains from the US NFP report. The culprit seemed to be rotation being driven by hedge funds facing short

Another round of JPY intervention Wild moves in USD/JPY This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

China Customs is drip feeding the trade data out. January -June (ie YTD), in US dollar terms: trade surplus $435 billion exports +3.6% y/yimports +2.0% y/y In Yuan terms: trade surplus 3.1 trillion yuanexports +6.9% y/y imports +5.2% y/y June only month data, USD terms: trade balance USD 99.05bnimports -2.3% y/yexports +8.6% y/y Exports, imports

A snippet from a note from Fitch following the US CPI data: Sufficient confidence to begin cutting interest rates is getting closerthe Federal Reserve will likely want to see similar prints in August and September before pulling the trigger on that first rate cut Other analysts are more convinced a cut is coming: More on

Discover the ultimate strategy for mastering Fib Extension vs Retracement, unlocking profits in both bull and bear markets The post Fib Extension vs Retracement: Which To Use And Why? appeared first on TradingwithRayner.

Bank of Montreal on the US inflation data. Fist, the TL;DR key takeaway: sets the Fed up well to begin cutting in September More (in brief): The net of the data reinforces the dovish messaging from Powell and offers confirmation that the Fed’s tighter policy stance is weighing on consumer price inflation. Initial Jobless Claims

Fundamental Overview The USD weakened across the board yesterday following another soft US CPI report and benign Jobless Claims figures. The market not only fully priced in a rate cut in September but also started to price in some chances of a back-to-back rate cut in November. Overall, we had a goldilocks data release with

Biden’s press conference, wrapping up the three day NATO summit in Washington. he began with a speech and is now taking questions. In response to the first question he referred to Vice President Harris as Vice President Trump. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

German DAX futures flatUK FTSE futures +0.2% For French stocks, the recovery in the last two days brings price back to its Monday levels at least. If anything else, it seems like investors will have to keep optimism in European indices on a leash for now. US futures are more flattish after the poor showing

Guess what? Yeah, it’s going to be another boring European session on the data front. The only notable events today include the US PPI and the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment report in the American session. I don’t expect the market to react too much to them unless we get huge surprises. 12:30 GMT/08:30 ET

JPMorgan says its expecting a diminishing in crypto liquidations during July, and then a recovery starting in August. revised its year-to-date crypto net flow estimate down from US$12 billion to US$8 billionreduction in the estimated net flow is largely driven by the decline in bitcoin reserves across exchanges over the past monthciting Mt. Gox, Gemini

Fundamental Overview The USD weakened across the board yesterday following another soft US CPI report and benign Jobless Claims figures. The market not only fully priced in a rate cut in September but also started to price in some chances of a back-to-back rate cut in November. Overall, we had a goldilocks data release with

People’s Bank of China USD/CNY reference rate is due around 0115 GMT. The People’s Bank of China (PBOC), China’s central bank, is responsible for setting the daily midpoint of the yuan (also known as renminbi or RMB). The PBOC follows a managed floating exchange rate system that allows the value of the yuan to fluctuate

Fundamental Overview Yesterday, gold spiked to the cycle highs following another soft US CPI report. The market even started to price in the chance of a third rate cut by the end of the year. Real yields fell and gold rallied as a result. As of now, it looks like gold have limited downside but

There is some 87.5% of Japanese households expecting a rise in prices in a year from now: That is up from the 83.3% share from the previous survey in March this year. Meanwhile, the outlook for economic conditions show just ~8% of households anticipating an improvement in the economy in a year from now. That

Prior +7.0%New yuan loans ¥2.13 trillionPrior ¥950.0 billion The jump is new yuan loans barely misses the estimate of ¥2.25 trillion but is a strong rebound to the month before. That reaffirms that Beijing is still trying to improve credit conditions in bolstering the economy this year. This article was written by Justin Low at

David beats Goliath today. The NASDAQ index has been the Goliath in 2024. The gains for the index reached close to 25%. That is huge – and it’s only July. Meanwhile, the small guy on the block, the small-cap Russell 2000 has suffered. Before today, the gain for the year was only 1% – 2%.

Japan’s Finance Ministry’s Vice Finance Minister for International Affairs Kanda. He is the official who will instruct the BOJ to intervene, when he judges it necessary. Often referred to as Japan’s ‘top currency diplomat’. If you are confused about Kanda commenting, I get it. Japan appointed a replacement, Atsushi Mimura, at the end of June.

Via Westpac on the Australian dollar after the US CPI data on Thursday: As previously noted, the bias for AUD/USD to rise has been partly due to AU domestic and RBA’s tilt to a more hawkish hold, as well as potential that US is returning to a path of disinflation. June CPI puts this prospect

Japan finance minister Suzuki Rapid fx moves undesirableDesirable for forex to move stablyNo comment on fx interventionWon’t comment on media reports that japan conducted fx rate checks This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

The Japanese government tends to release their economic growth forecasts twice a year, one in January and one in July. The latest one should come some time next week and the sources above are saying that they will be cutting its growth forecast for fiscal year ending March 2025. The revised estimate is to see

The People’s Bank of China set the onshore yuan (CNY) reference rate for the trading session ahead. USD/CNY is the onshore yuan. Its permitted to trade plus or minus 2% from this daily reference rate.CNH is the offshore yuan. USD /CNH has no restrictions on its trading range.A significantly stronger or weaker rate than expected

Eurostoxx +0.2%Germany DAX +0.1%France CAC 40 +0.4%UK FTSE +0.4%Spain IBEX +0.1%Italy FTSE MIB +0.4% Despite all of the gains in past few sessions, the CAC 40 index is still down 0.2% on the week currently. That is an indictment that any optimism remains very much on a leash for the time being. For US stocks

Data for purchases made in New Zealand on debit, credit and store cards. Card spending data covers around 68% of core retail sales in NZ. Its used as the main retail sales indicator for the country. More poor data from NZ, closely following the freefallin’ PMI: New Zealand June Manufacturing PMI 41.1 (prior 47.2) This

Prior +2.3%HICP +2.5% vs +2.5% y/y prelimPrior +2.6% This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

Slight delay in the release by the source. Compared to the same month a year ago, German wholesale prices are seen down 0.6%. This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

For markets, that door has certainly opened up after the US CPI report yesterday. But personally, I still hold some reservations. That especially since we have seen traders run back the post-CPI moves previously in the last two months. However, for now, we are seeing traders start to open up to the idea of three

China trade data dribbling out: YTD USD denominated exports +3.6% y/y, imports +2%Westpac reiterate bullish view on AUD/USDJPMorgan forecasts a crypto market recovery beginning in AugustJapan finance minister Suzuki says rapid FX moves are undesirableJapan chief cabinet secretary Hayashi says he has no comment on FX interventionPBOC sets USD/ CNY reference rate for today at

Adam had the info from JP Morgan as it was hitting: JPMorgan moves up Fed rate cut call to September from December From their report, a fair comment: The June CPI report was very benign JPM go on with a droll remark immaculate disinflation Yeah, right. Anyway, then this (the bolded bit): if the immaculate

A report in the Globe and Mail reports that the relationship between Canadian PM Trudeau and finance minister Chrystia Freeland has become tense and that a cabinet shuffle could be coming. “Senior officials in Prime Minister Justin Trudeau’s office are concerned that Finance Minister Chrystia Freeland has not been effective in delivering an upbeat economic

Q2 GDP q/q is +0.4% expected +0.4%, prior +0.1% for the y/y +2.9% expected +2.7%, prior +2.7% *** Meanwhile, USD/JPY is all over the place. I put a big red box around the y axis … yozxa! This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

It’s all housing at this point. CIBC today highlights that shelter is the key to getting inflation back to the Fed and Bank of Canada targets. For the Fed, they note that core inflation excluding housing is already at 2% y/y. They highlight analysis suggesting that rent inflation takes about a year to enter the

US President Biden is holding a press conference at the conclusion of NATO meetings. The media will, of course, be focused on questions about his fitness for running and holding office for the following four years. On the data agenda, China’s trade balance for June is of most interest. Both exports and imports are expected

The NASDAQ index fell -408 points at one point in trading today. It is currently down -334 points or -1.80%. That is its worst trading decline since April 30 when the index fell -2.04%. What did the decline do from a technical perspective? The low price in the Nasdaq index today reached 18238.78. That was

Bank of America highlights that recent US growth indicators have started to turn lower, and inflation appears to be easing. This trend has tempered the USD’s strength, as markets anticipate a potential Fed easing cycle this year. BofA’s G10 FX HeatMap provides a broader context for the USD outlook by evaluating multiple metrics across G10

San Francisco Fed’s Daly is on the wires and says: Likely some policy adjustments will be warrantedRecent inflation prints a relief, but progress bumpyMy expectation is inflation will come down gradually, labor market is gradually slowingEconomy looks to be on path where 1 or 2 rate cuts this year would be ‘more or less’ the

USD/JPY is plunging after the softer US CPI numbers. This could be a squeeze on the very-crowded long trade. The dollar is broadly weaker but in the 50-100 pips range on most pairs, however this move is now nearly 300 pips. That either speaks a real squeeze. This article was written by Adam Button at

The USDCAD moved lower on the USD selling immediately after the US CPI data. However the fall in the pair extended down toward key support near the 200 day moving average at 1.3595 and the 38.2% retracement of the range since the December 2023 low at 1.35899. That 38.2% retracement level has stalled the fall

Everyone is trying to make sense of this market but this looks like position-squaring to me. An extremely crowded trade has been to buy AI (i.e. NVDA) and short rate-sensitive stocks (Russell 2000). That’s been a wonderful trade as the Russell 2000 languished and Nvidia soared to briefly become the most-valuable stock in the world.

Job market strong but has cooled in recent monthsWe are making progress on inflationSupported June Fed decision, says mon policy is restrictive nowEconomy is on a good path but he would like to see more dataWants to see more improvement in supply conditionsWants to see general demand conditions moderate some more going forward Musalem is

The final of three coupon auctions will take place at 1 PM ET with the sale of $22 billion of 30-year bonds by the US Treasury. Both the 3 and 10 year note auctions had strong demand with a negative tail, greater than the average bid to cover, with strong domestic demand and steady international

Median CPI +0.2% m/m and +4.15% y/yTrimmed mean CPI +0.2% and 3.34% y/yMedian CPI is the one-month inflation rate of the component whose expenditure weight is in the 50th percentile of price changes.16 percent trimmed-mean CPI is a weighted average of one-month inflation rates of components whose expenditure weights fall below the 92nd percentile and

I don’t expect they will be the last to move-forward a rate cut call. Bank of America is also at December. “Today’s report is, to use Powell’s words, ‘good news’ and we now think this paves the way for a first cut in September,” said economist Michael Feroli. This article was written by Adam Button

The betting markets are increasingly wary of Biden’s ability to stay in the race. Ultimately, the choice comes down to him but every day there is a new name calling for him to step down. A House Democrat from Michigan today said he should leave the race as the chorus continues to grow. The New

The US CPI data came in lower than expected, and that has led to a fall in the US dollar, and a fall in US yields. The EURUSD has broken higher and moved above a swing area between 1.0875 and 1.0887. Also at 1.0887 is a downward sloping trendline on the 4-hour chart connecting highs

High-yield 4.405% versus 4.403% last monthWI at the time of the auction 4.383%Tail +2.2 basis points vs six-month average of -0.9 basis pointsBid to Cover 2.30X vs six month average of 2.42XDealers 15.88% vs six-month average of 14.9%Directs 23.36% vs six-month average of 17.5%Indirects 60.76% vs six-month average of 67.6% AUCTION GRADE: D+ The 30-year

Via Kiwibank, who were ahead of the curve (“sticking to our call for cuts to begin in November”) on this shift from the RBNZ: importantly, we finally got a noticeable softening in tone. It was a welcome shift given the total collapse in business confidence last week. Enough is enough. The economy is clearly responding

Headline measures: Prior y/y 3.3%m/m -0.1% versus +0.1% expected Prior m/m 0.1% Unrounded % vs +0.313% m/m prior Core measures and details: Core CPI m/m +0.1% versus +0.2% expected. Prior month 0.2%Unrounded core +0.065% vs +0.163% prior Core CPI y/y +3.3% versus 3.4% expected. Prior month was 3.4%Supercore m/m -0.054% vs -0.045% priorSupercore y/y +4.651%

The NZDUSD moved sharply higher after the tamer than expected US CPI data sent the USD lower. That moved to the upside took the price above a cluster of moving averages including: 200-hour movie area to 0.61024100-bar moving out on the four hour chart at 0.61059100-hour moving out in 0.61136, and even the 200-bar moving

New Zealand food prices in June 2024: +1% m/m and -0.3% y/y Food prices make up nearly 19% of New Zealand’s consumer price index. – We get the Q2 CPI data from NZ next week. Wednesday morning, July 17, New Zealand time: 10.45am This is TUESDAY at 2245 GMT and 1645 US Eastern time. Earlier

Bidens campaign says: There is increased anxiety after the debate, but it is NOT seeing a drastic shift in where the race stands Its internal data and public polling show the race remains within margin of error in key battleground states.It’s polling shows Bidens post debate net favorability is 20 percentage points higher than Trump

Federal Reserve Board Governor Lisa Cook speaking on “Global Inflation and Monetary Policy Challenges” before the 2024 Australian Conference of Economists Cook (info via Reuters): “My baseline forecast…is that inflation will continue to move toward target over time, without much further rise in unemployment,”soft landings are “more likely when policy easing began with inflation already

Good morning, afternoon and evening all. Any charts, technical analysis, trade ideas, thoughts, views, ForexLive traders would like to share and discuss with fellow ForexLive traders, please do so: This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

Trump met with major U.S. Bitcoin miners last month in a move to engage with the crypto folks and garner their votes. He is well-positioned to do so. Incumbent President Biden has overseen further Bitcoin regulation, so he is out of favour with the Bitcoin et al community. Trump has said he wants ensure the

China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC) announced on Wednesday a number of measures. More curbs on short-selling securities re-lending – in which brokers borrow shares for clients to short sell – would be suspended from today, Thursday, 11 July 2024 margin requirements would be raised for short-sellers, from 80% to 100% Urged stock exchanges to publish

The USDCHF moved sharply lower after the US CPI data as the USD reacted to lower rates and the expectations of 2 cuts by the Fed in 2024. The move lower ticket price to the 61.8% retracement of the recent move up from the June low to the July high. That level comes in at

Rate cuts? Failing growth? Huge deficits? Political instability? Geopolitical fears? Take your pick, gold has them all. The week started off with a slump on data showing China didn’t add to reserves (at least officially) for a second month but that hasn’t been enough to derail the trade. Gold is up $51 to $2422. With

Prior week 238K revised to 239KInitial jobless claims 222K vs 236K estimate4-week MA of initial jobless claims 233.5K vs 238.75K last week Continuing claims 1.852M vs 1.860M est.Prior week continuing claims 1.858M revised to 1.856M4 week moving average continuing claims 1.840M vs 1.831M last week The data is still consistent with a solid jobs market.

There is a slight extension to the narrow ranges earlier but it is looking rather one-sided. The greenback is the one dragged lower now in European morning trade, with EUR/USD pushing to a one-month high of 1.0853. The pair is now up 0.2% on the day, with other major currencies also posting roughly similar gains