There aren’t any major expiries to take note of for today. However, just be wary that there are some big ones layered for EUR/USD especially between 1.0700 to 1.0800 during the week. There will also be ones for Friday as outlined here. That is likely to lock price action in the pair until we get […]

British Retail Consortium (BRC) data for June 2024 0.2% m/m vs. 0.6%in Maythe smallest increase since October 2021 Comment from the report: “This will be of help to shoppers as they plan their household budgets for essential goods and services,” said Mike Watson, head of retailer and business insight at NielsenIQ, which provides data for

But should not rush in doing soWe can cut more if baseline projections holdMust be patient with further rate cutsThere is a risk of underestimating inflation stickiness More of the same stuff from the ECB today. They are putting out the narrative that they are ready to cut but that will be subject to inflation

Prior 6.4% The jobless rate in the euro area holds steady at 6.4% and continues to stay thereabouts since last year. So, this isn’t quite a pressing area of concern for the ECB just yet. This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

Prior +2.6%Core CPI +2.9% vs +2.8% y/y expectedPrior +2.9% Lane tried to play the report down earlier here. But the details certainly isn’t too encouraging for the ECB. Headline annual inflation eased to 2.5% as expected but core annual inflation remains stubborn at 2.9%, unchanged from May. That owes much to services inflation, which remains

As confidence builds, ECB can look at every meeting in making a decisionThere is confidence that inflation will hit 2% target next yearOur baseline projections have proved to be quite solidWe must be prudent on ratesStill hesitant on growth assessmentMonetary policy must aid with economic recovery As much as they’d like to think so, July

A small deviation from the projections would not change this view dramaticallyThere is probably a premium in waiting for a meeting with new forecasts i.e. SeptemberBut I would not make that a conditionDecision to cut rates one more time is a relatively easy oneBut subsequent moves should only come once inflation is closer towards the

But restrictive rates for too long is a problemThere are some warning signs in the jobs marketWe are putting emphasis on jobs reports and price dataThere has been a string of improved inflation readings in the USIt feels like the path back towards 2%If inflation returns to normal, rates will too The part in bold

Biden is delivering remarks on the Supreme Court’s immunity ruling, I posted a bit of a heads up here: US President Biden is scheduled to speak at 7.45pm US Eastern time Biden: no Kings in Americano one is above the lawdecision means there are virtually no limits on what a president can do and it

Services inflation remains essentialNeed to take a little bit of time to assess inflation Well, it seems like someone got the June report a little earlier than everyone else. In any case, the individual major country readings did not produce much surprises. It should fit with a mild moderation in price pressures, with headline annual

Uncertainty remains highWe have to be very prudentInflation will have its ups and downs this yearEconomy is to be stronger in 2H than it was in 1H He’s not really giving anything away and the remarks echo what his peers have been saying since last month already. This article was written by Justin Low at

That should roughly translate to monthly purchases of around ¥4.65 trillion, down from the current pace of around ¥6 trillion. As for the second year, the survey respondents expect the monthly purchases to fall further to average around ¥3.55 trillion. Putting everything together, that should translate to a reduction of around ¥45 trillion over a

People’s Bank of China USD/CNY reference rate is due around 0115 GMT. The People’s Bank of China (PBOC), China’s central bank, is responsible for setting the daily midpoint of the yuan (also known as renminbi or RMB). The PBOC follows a managed floating exchange rate system that allows the value of the yuan to fluctuate

US bonds with the sad performance: Forexlive Americas FX news wrap 1 Jul; US yields continue to rise w/longer end up the most The Wall Street Journal has a piece up on the higher bond yields. I’ll just add a trigger alert for the politically motivated. The piece needs careful reading. The Journal says yields

New Zealand Institute of Economic Research (NZIER) quarterly survey of business opinion 44% of firms surveyed expected general business conditions to deteriorate compared with 25% pessimism in the previous quarternet pessimism has been shown in the results of this survey since the third quarter of 2021 High interest rates in NZ continue to dampen demand.

The weekly ANZ / Roy Morgan survey of consumer confidnece tends not to move the Australian dollar upon release, so it pretty much drifts by more or less unmentioned. However, it also includes measure of inflation expectations. And, given the sticky, high nature of Australian inflation, check this out from the ANZ report: Inflation expectations

There is a report that the Democrats are waiting in early nomination for Pres. Biden. That nomination could be as early as July 21. The Trump camp must be “licking its chops” at that prospects of that idea. The Supreme Court ruling today was favorable for former Pres. Trump as it may keep him out

Comments from Federal Reserve Bank of New York President John Williams were published on Monday: said he continues to believe price pressures are moderating”I’m confident that we at the Fed are on a path to achieving our 2% inflation goal on a sustained basis,” Williams spoke in a video made on Sunday for a Bank

Powell is speaking at 1330 GMT / 0930 US Eastern time at the ECB forum in Sintra. You’ll note below that European Central Bank President Lagarde is on the same panel with him. There are a number of ECB speakers on the day’s agenda, but I’ll post on them separately. This article was written by

NASDAQ index off to a strong start. Closes at a record level.Former Fed Gov. Clarida: Sees one Fed rate cut in DecemberDemocrats weighing early nomination for Pres. BidenECB Pres. Lagarde: it will take time to be certain that inflation is on trackCrude oil futures and settle at $83.38ECBs Wunsch: The markets pricing on rate cuts

The NASDAQ index is starting the 2H of the year with a solid gain after rising by 18.13% in the first half of 2024. The index is closing near highs for the day up 0.84% and at a new record closing level. Both the Dow industrial average and the S&P also rose to start the

A snippet this morning from ING: The minutes of the June RBA meeting need scrutinizing for any talk of rate hikes. We know they were talked about, the question is, what is the trigger? We are leaning towards forecasting a hike at the August meeting. *** I posted a bit of a preview earlier. Since

Former Fed Gov. and PIMCO global economic advisor Richard Clarida is on CNBC says: Feds stance is dovish despite perceived hawkishness Earliest practical time for rate cut is September.PIMCO’s base case is for one cut this year in December Characterizes the May inflation data as welcome news for the Fed Says that Fed officials need

Inflation data from South Korea. Like the sub heading says, the y/y result is the lowest since July of 2023. The core measure came in at +2.2% y/y. The May data is here for comparison: South Korea May Consumer Price Index This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

UBS with a not very uplifting view on the outcome of the French election for investment certainty. In brief: large number of second-round votes could be three-way contestsmakes the final outcome harder to predictits not clear how many third-placed moderate candidates will withdraw to form a “front républicain” to increase the chances of defeating a

The NZDUSD is trading near session lows and in the process is testing its converged 100 and 200-day moving averages near 0.6068. When both the 100 and 200 day moving averages are converged, it represents a key risk/bias defining level for both buyers and sellers. Moving below with momentum and traders will target the 50%

Say the same thing over and over and over and one day you are bound to be right. A note from JP Morgan warns that US stocks are frothy. But that’s what they’ve been saving for a thousand points and more now. Anyway: There is no safety net anymoremarket is positioned longVix is at lows,

Crude oil futures are settling at $83.38. That is up $1.84 or 2.26% on the day. The gain is the largest one day gain since June 10 when the index rose 2.93% and driven by expectations of higher summer demand and concerns over potential supply shortages due to OPEC+ production cuts. Oil prices increased by

The European traders have come and gone, but it isn’t too late to review the day. To start the new week, month, quarter and the 2nd half of the year, the major European indices are closed higher. A snapshot of closing levels shows: German DAX, +0.30%France CAC +1.09%UK FTSE 100 +0.03%Spain’s Ibex, +1.04%Italy’s FTSE MIB

Bank of Japan Tankan for the April to June quarter of 2024. Headlines via Reuters: June big manufacturers index +13 (Reuters poll: 12), this is a 2 year highSeptember big manufacturers index seen at +14 (Reuters poll: 13)June big non-manufacturers index +33 (Reuters poll: 33)September big non-manufacturers index seen at +27 (Reuters poll: 31)June small

Today the main event will be the US ISM Manufacturing PMI but we will get some minor economic releases before that. In fact, in the European session we have the Swiss Retail Sales, the Final S&P Global PMIs and the German inflation readings. These are low tier releases and shouldn’t be market moving. 14:00 GMT/10:00

Prior +0.4% A delay in the release by the source. House prices in the UK continue to hold up but Nationwide argues that activity in the market remains fairly subdued despite that. The firm notes that: “Housing market activity has been broadly flat over the last year, with the total number of transactions down by

Prior month +0.3% versus -0.1% previously reportedConstruction spending -0.1% versus 0.2% expected Total Construction: May 2024 construction spending was $2,139.8 billion, -0.1% below April’s revised $2,142.1 billion.6.4% higher than May 2023’s $2,011.8 billion.First five months of 2024: $836.3 billion, +8.8% above the same period in 2023 ($768.6 billion). Private Construction: Spending was $1,652.1 billion, -0.3%

Prelim was 51.7Prior was 51.3 The ISM survey is due at the top of the hour and the consensus is 49.1, up from 48.7 last month. Chris Williamson, Chief Business Economist at S&P Global Market Intelligence, said: “The S&P Global PMI survey shows US manufacturers struggling to achieve strong production growth in June, hamstrung by

The Atlanta Fed GDPNow growth estimate for Q2 falls to 1.7% from 2.2% previously. In their own words: The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the second quarter of 2024 is 1.7 percent on July 1, down from 2.2 percent on June 28. After this morning’s releases from the

Goldman Sachs observes another indicator that the US dollar remains robust against its challengers. The broad dollar index has surpassed the October 2023 highs, with recent strength attributed to a lack of Federal Reserve rate cuts and strong US real rate advantages, making the dollar a formidable currency. Key Points: Broad-Based Strength: The broad dollar

It is a new trading week, month and quarter. The EURUSD and GBPUSD are higher (lower USD) as the market reacts to elections in France and prepares for the UK election on Thursday. The USDJPY continues its run to the upside with the pair reaching the highest level since 1986. In the Kickstart video for

The USDCHF is being helped by weaker Swiss retail sales/higher US yields. However the ISM data in the US did come out weaker than expectations with prices and employment components also lower. That combination helped to push price down toward an old floor level (broken earlier today), and the 200 bar moving average on the

One thing I didn’t highlight in my post on bonds is that some input prices are rising, particularly oil. Now cracks have faltered so gasoline hasn’t moved up much but with oil prices up here, they eventually will. Especially with WTI crude oil up $1.30 to $82.83, the highest since April 30. The reasons for

The USDCAD have been able to run higher yesterday helped by higher US rates. The run higher has taken the price above its 100 bar moving out on a 4-hour chart and 50% midpoint of the trading range since mid April near 1.3716, and up toward a swing area and 61.8% retracement of the same

As the NA session begins the GBP is the strongest and the CHF is the weakest. The UK election is approaching on July 4 with Labour expected to win the majority. An exit poll will be released at 22:00 BST/5 PM EST, with expectations of a strong Labour majority. The outcome is largely priced in,

Introduction: A snapshot of today’s market dynamics Today’s stock market presents a vibrant tapestry of gains and losses across various sectors, as depicted in the latest heatmap analysis. While certain areas like consumer electronics and communication services showcase promising upticks, others such as semiconductors reflect minor dips, shaping a mixed economic narrative for investors and

The AUDUSD traded to the high from last week, and the high of swing area near 0.66896. Sellers lead against that level stalling the rally. The higher US rates today have helped to push the AUDUSD price lower (the USD higher). The move has now pushed the price toward the 200 and 100 bar moving

Roaring Kitty, Keith Gill, has been sued for securities fraud in the US District Court Eastern District of New York Source here: The Complaint alleges that during the Class Period, Defendant engaged in a pump-and-dump scheme, *** I remember when Greg watched the live stream … so we didn’t have to. I am surprised Gill

Prior 51.2 It’s a slight revision lower to the initial reading but still reaffirms a marginal growth in UK’s manufacturing sector. Both output and new orders continued to expand for a second successive month. However, price pressures remain stubborn with input cost inflation rising to a 17-month high. That’s a troubling sign for the BOE.

Prior 46.4 This is the 18th straight month that the Swiss manufacturing sector remains in contraction. Softer readings across the region continue to indicate that a rebound in conditions for Switzerland also remains unlikely. Here is the breakdown for the month: This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

ECBs Sinkus is on the wires saying: Two more cuts are possible in a 2024 if data is as expectedECB should not limit rate moves to projection meetingsAdds that a case before a July interest rate cut has gone ECBs Lagarde and other members implied after the last decision that July was likely not going

Prior month 48.7Prices paid 52.1 versus 57.0 priorEmployment 49.3 versus 51.1 last monthNew orders 49.3 versus 45.4 last monthProduction 48.5 versus 50.2 last month.Supplier deliveries 49.8 versus 48.9 last monthInventories 45.4 versus 47.9 last month.Backlog of orders 41.7 versus 42.4 last monthNew export orders 48.8 versus 50.6 last monthImports 48.5 versus 51.1 last month The

The other state readings released around the same time: Brandenburg CPI +2.6% vs +2.9% y/y priorHesse CPI +1.8% vs +1.9% y/y priorSaxony CPI +2.8% vs +3.1% y/y priorNorth Rhine Westphalia CPI +2.2% vs +2.5% y/y priorBaden Wuerttemberg CPI +1.9% vs +2.1% y/y prior At the balance, it shows that annual inflation in German states did

If you look at the daily averages, the first four trading days of July are among the best days on the calendar over the past 50 years. The average gain on July 1 is +0.27% and the average on July 3 is +0.31% (a top-ten day on the calendar). There are also moderate historical gains

It’s a strong start of the US dollar today and it has picked up further along with New York trade. The catalyst is the bond market with Treasury yields up 6-10 bps across the curve. Tens are up 9.6 bps to 4.44%, which is the highest since June 11. USD/JPY has tracked that, rising 51

US 10-year Treasury yields are now up 21 basis points from the PCE lows and you have to wonder: What would it look like if Friday’s inflation data had been bad instead of good? Yields are now at a one-month high and rising across the curve; which is helping to boost the US dollar. Why?

The EURUSD has rotated back to the downside as yields continue to run higher with the 10 year now up 14 basis points. That comes despite weaker ISM data. The US Supreme Court did rule in favor of Donald Trump regarding presidential immunity which makes prosecution for January 6th a hard hurdle. Whether that is

French antitrust regulators are preparing to charge Nvidia with anti-competitive practises, according to Reuters. This isn’t wholly a surprise as back in September, France raided the offices of Nvidia. Shares haven’t been hurt since the report and are down 1.3%. This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

Worse economic contraction than was thought for Japan in Q1 2024. The government has revisited construction orders data and cut the GDP result even further. January – March real GDP annualised -2.9% vs previously revised -1.8%October -December 2023 real GDP revised to annualised +0.1% from previous +0.4%July September 2023 real GDP revised to annualised -4.0%

Bitcoin had a quiet weekend but its jumped higher in the past hours. There are no obvious fresh catalysts. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

There is just one on the board to take note of, as highlighted in bold. That being for EUR/USD at the 1.0700 level. The size of the expiry is a big one so that could keep a floor under the pair in terms of price action for the session ahead. There won’t be much on

US stocks are off to a positive start to start the new week, new month, new quarter, second half of 2024. The gains are led by the Dow Industrial Average average. The NASDAQ is the laggard. A snapshot of the market currently shows: Dow Industrial Average average up 198.2 points or 0.51% at 39317.08S&P index

Prior 45.4 The reading is more or less the same as the initial estimate, reaffirming a slight setback for Germany’s manufacturing sector at the end of Q2. Weak demand conditions is still the main culprit in all this but at least that is helping to pin down price pressures slightly. HCOB notes that: “Will this

The Swiss franc stuck to its June seasonal pattern here, with USD/CHF posting another decline again last month. The early gains helped to offset the change in narrative from the SNB late on in June, so that changes up the dynamic for the pair coming into July. In FX, it’s hard to make out any

The US dollar dipped on a softer ISM manufacturing index but it has stormed right back. The fuel is coming from the bond market where 10-year Treasury yields are now up 12 bps on the day and more than 20 bps since the post-PCE lows on Friday. USD/JPY is at a fresh 34-year high, up

Happy Canada Day. Canadian markets are closed today as we kick off the second half of the year. US markets are open and the theme so far is Treasury selling. US 10s are up 7.8 bps to 4.42% and USD/JPY is at a session high up 34 pips to 161.17. Flows are always a big

Over the weekend we had the official PMIs Weekend data – China’s offiical PMIs for June were mixed, disappointing on the whole The Caixin / S&P Global Manufacturing PMI out now is the second Manufacturing PMI for June 2024 . Comes in at 51.8, the highest since May of 2021 and the eighth consecutive reading

Prior 61.14k; revised to 60.82kNet consumer credit £1.5 billionPrior £0.7 billion; revised to £0.8 billion Individuals borrowed, on net, £1.2 billion of mortgage debt in May – down from £2.2 billion in April. That sees the annual growth rate for net mortgage lending rising to 0.3% in May, up from 0.2% in April – which

The yen continues to wobble, with USD/JPY bid back above 161.00 as I update. The Tankan wasn’t too bad., The GDP revision was super-ugly. EUR/USD is adding to its earlier gap higher, just a little off 1.0750. Speaking of USD/JPY, check out the FX dealing in this old clip, from around the 1:56 mark. If

Prior +2.4%CPI +0.1% vs +0.2% m/m expectedPrior +0.1%HICP +2.5% vs +2.6% y/y expectedPrior +2.8%HICP +0.2% vs +0.2% m/m expectedPrior +0.2% Slight delay in the release by the source. This fits with estimates from the state readings earlier here. Core annual inflation is seen easing a touch to 2.9%, after having held at 3.0% in April

Rate cuts by year-end Fed: 45 bps (90% probability of no change at the next meeting) ECB: 44 bps (61% probability of no change at the next meeting) BoE: 44 bps (57% probability of rate cut at the next meeting) BoC: 46 bps (58% probability of no change at the next meeting) RBNZ: 36 bps

Says ING: Japanese authorities are allowing USD/JPY to trade above the April FX intervention levelsPrevious comments from the top currency official hint the new line in the sand may be close to 165 Bank of America also nominate 165 as the new level for Japanese authorities to step in. BoA argue that if the Bank

Where we are at: Marine Le Pen’s far-right National Rally (RN) party has taken the lead in the first round of France’s parliamentary elections on Sunday, Earlier post on this: First round of French election – “Macron’s centrist alliance suffered staggering losses” EUR/USD has popped: EUR/USD has popped a little higher A higher EUR seems

Over the weekend were the official PMIs from China for June: Weekend data – China’s offiical PMIs for June were mixed, disappointing on the whole Today we get the privately-surveyed Caixin manufacturing PMI. This remained in expansion in May despite the NBS Manufacturing PMI dropping into contraction. This snapshot from the ForexLive economic data calendar,

Prior 45.6 The downturn continues in Italy’s manufacturing sector, with it staying in contraction territory for a third straight month. Weaker demand conditions continue to be the bane for most of the euro area at the moment. This led to a decline in production volumes, with the pace of the drop being the quickest in

The final June reading is 47.2, the lowest in 3 months and the fifth month in a row in contraction the preliminary was 47.5May was 49.7 Some of the comments from the report: manufacturing sector’s key activity indicators have softened to the cyclical lows seen earlier in the yearManufacturers are marginally scaling back production through

Domestic sight deposits CHF 443.0 bn vs CHF 443.4 bn prior Swiss sight deposits were little changed in the past week, following a bit of a noticeable drop in the weeks prior. That said, the latest foreign reserves data shows that the SNB switched from FX sales to FX purchases in Q1 having bought foreign

People’s Bank of China USD/CNY reference rate is due around 0115 GMT. The People’s Bank of China (PBOC), China’s central bank, is responsible for setting the daily midpoint of the yuan (also known as renminbi or RMB). The PBOC follows a managed floating exchange rate system that allows the value of the yuan to fluctuate

Headlines: Euro holds higher as France’s far-right sweep first round of electionsUSDJPY Technical Analysis – The bullish bias remains intactBavaria June CPI +2.7% vs +2.7% y/y priorEurozone June final manufacturing PMI 45.8 vs. 45.6 prelimUK June final manufacturing PMI 50.9 vs 51.4 prelimUK May mortgage approvals 59.99k vs 59.90k expectedUK June Nationwide house prices +0.2%

Manufacturing PMI (final) 45.4 vs. 45.3 prelim and 46.4 prior. Key findings: New orders decrease at quicker pace, weighing on production. Accelerated declines seen for purchasing activity and employment. Price pressures intensify, with output charge inflation at 15-month high. Comment: Commenting on the PMI data, Norman Liebke, Economist at Hamburg Commercial Bank, said: “Not only

Chinese state media reporting comments from Communist Party Chair Xi Jinping: A healthy and stable development of China-Australia relations is in the fundamental and long-term interests of the two countries and peoplesA healthy, stable development of China-Australia relations is also conducive to regional and world peace, stability, development and prosperityWilling to work with Australia to

It’s tough to see this bounce as being any more than a slight relief for now. There were no major surprises to the outcome of the first round of votes in the French elections. And I reckon that’s what markets are responding to mostly, alongside the fact that the worst-case scenario of there being a

Good morning, afternoon and evening all. Any charts, technical analysis, trade ideas, thoughts, views, ForexLive traders would like to share and discuss with fellow ForexLive traders, please do so: This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

Eurostoxx +1.5%Germany DAX +1.3%France CAC 40 +2.6%UK FTSE +0.7%Spain IBEX +1.7%Italy FTSE MIB +2.0% The first round of voting is going more or less expected and perhaps the lack of surprise elements is helping to calm the nerves of investors. That said, there’s still plenty of uncertainty lingering before the second round of votes on

Fundamental Overview The USD started the week on the backfoot as the new month begins. The last week’s strength might have been influenced more by quarter-end flows rather than something fundamental as the economic data didn’t change interest rates expectations. Nonetheless, the data continues to support the risk sentiment amid a pickup in growth without

Fundamental Overview The USD started the week on the backfoot as the new month begins. The last week’s strength might have been influenced more by quarter-end flows rather than something fundamental as the economic data didn’t change interest rates expectations. Nonetheless, the data should continue to support the risk sentiment amid a pickup in growth

On Friday we had further encouraging data on inflation from the US: US May core PCE +0.1% vs 0.1% expected HSBS, though, in their most recent ‘global outlook’ note are more circumspect: We still expect the pace of improvement in inflation from here to be only gradual and uneven given the ongoing stickiness in service

Various media outlets are reporting that U.S. military bases in Europe were put on a heightened state of alert over the weekend. CNBC, Fox, ABC are amongst the outlets with the report. Stars and Stripes had this to say: U.S. military bases in Europe were put on a heightened state of alert over the weekendAt

A paper published on Sunday by the Bank for International Settlements. This might make some interesting weekend reading. Or not. Some of the stuff on FX interventions is of interest right now, looking at you Bank of Japan! Monetary policy in the 21st century: lessons learned and challenges ahead Key takeaways Since the turn of

German DAX futures +0.9%French CAC 40 futures +2.3%UK FTSE futures +0.3% This comes after the far-right is seen sweeping the first round of the French elections over the weekend. That said, I wouldn’t get too carried away by the manner of victory just yet. A lot can change in the days ahead and there are

The estimate is for headline annual inflation to come in at 2.3% in Germany for the month of June. While that looks encouraging, the ECB still can’t relax just yet. In May, core annual inflation is still seen at 3.0% and that remains the key spot to watch in all this. The data today won’t

On Monday, the most significant event will be the release of the ISM manufacturing PMI and ISM manufacturing prices for the U.S. On Tuesday, the eurozone will publish the core CPI flash estimate y/y and the CPI flash estimate y/y. Additionally, ECB President Lagarde and Fed Chair Powell will participate in a panel discussion titled

Manufacturing PMI 52.3 vs. 53.0 expected and 54.0 prior. Key findings: Production and new orders rise again, but at slower rates. Weaker growth in employment as confidence softens. Input cost inflation accelerates to highest since November 2022. Comment: Commenting on the PMI data, Jonas Feldhusen, Junior Economist at Hamburg Commercial Bank, said: “Uncertainty following European

Manufacturing PMI (final) 45.8 vs. 45.6 prelim and 47.3 prior. Key findings: HCOB Eurozone Manufacturing PMI at 45.8 (May: 47.3). 2-month low. HCOB Eurozone Manufacturing PMI Output Index at 46.1 (May: 49.3). 6-month low. Sharper decline in new orders and costs increase, but outlook remains upbeat. Comment: Commenting on the PMI data, Dr. Cyrus de

Private survey of inflation from the Melbourne Institute Inflation for June 2024 comes in at +0.3% m/m prior +0.3% For the y/y, +3.2% prior 3.1% (lowest in 21 months) — From last week’s CPI from the Australian Bureau of Statistics for May: 4.1% vs 3.8% prior the prospects of another Reserve Bank of Australia interest

The People’s Bank of China set the onshore yuan (CNY) reference rate for the trading session ahead. USD/CNY is the onshore yuan. Its permitted to trade plus or minus 2% from this daily reference rate.CNH is the offshore yuan. USD /CNH has no restrictions on its trading range.A significantly stronger or weaker rate than expected

The far-right National Rally party looks set to claim victory in the first round, with the left-wing New Popular Front coalition expected to win about 29% of the votes and Macron’s faction sitting in third with about 20% of the votes. So, what’s next? The euro is sitting higher with EUR/CHF up 0.5% to 0.9675

The euro is the main mover so far today, sitting higher after the first round of the French elections. I detailed more on that here. Besides that, USD/JPY remains in focus too with the pair inching just above 161.00 on the day. As bond yields trace higher, it continues to keep the dollar in a

As is usual for a Monday morning, market liquidity is very thin until it improves as more Asian centres come online … prices are liable to swing around, so take care out there. Indicative rates: EUR/USD 1.0725USD/JPY 160.80GBP/USD 1.2638USD/CHF 0.8987USD/CAD 1.3679AUD/USD 0.6677NZD/USD 0.6099 Great to be back – huge thanks to Arno for covering for

1900 GMT / 1500 US Eastern time Introductory speech by ECB President Christine Lagarde at the opening reception of the ECB Forum on Central Banking 2024 “Monetary policy in an era of transformation” The bigger events at this conference happen on Tuesday. Powell, Schnabel, De Guindos This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

The Bank of Japan Corporate Price Expectations survey is part of the Tankan Firms expect consumer prices to rise 2.4% a year from now vs +2.4% in the previous surveyExpect consumer prices to rise an annual 2.3% three years from now vs +2.2% in the previous surveyFirms expect consumer prices to rise an annual 2.2%

The euro has left a wee gap behind to open the new week: The results of the first round of the election in France are being cited. First round of French election – “Macron’s centrist alliance suffered staggering losses” The takes I’ve seen (apart from the politically biased ones that are best ignored) range across

Jibun S&P Global June 2024 Manufacturing PMI comes in at 50.0 prior 50.4preliminary was 50.1 From the commentary to the report: “Notably, the latest PMI data revealed the first rise in Japanese factory production for over a year, and a rebound in business confidence. Although employment continued to be impacted by retirements, there was another

China’s Xi says willing to work with AustraliaEuropean Central Bank President Lagarde speaking MondayBitcoin back above US$63500China Caixin Manufacturing PMI for June 2024 51.8 (expected 51.2, prior 51.7)Australian private survey of inflation, June 2024: +0.3% m/m (prior +0.3%)“Roaring Kitty” sued for Securities FraudPBOC sets USD/ CNY reference rate for today at 7.1265 (vs. estimate at

I’m sure you’ll find this plastered all over the place, but ICYMI, the first round of the election in France has seen gains for the far-roght party led by Marine Le Pen. Politico have a good summary: According to early estimates by pollsters Ipsos, the far-right National Rally is on course to win 34 percent

Via Nikkei today (gtaed): Chinese national security authorities will have greater power to inspect smartphones and other electronic devices beginning MondayThe new powers are part of stronger anti-espionage laws that took effect,. The power of inspection extends to the phones of foreigners in the country. The new espionage law broadens the information covered to anything

China’s manufacturing PMI contracted for a second consecutive month in June. The non-manufacturing PMI expanded, but a slower pace than in May. The composite PMI, which includes both manufacturing and nonmanufacturing activities, dropped from 51 in May to 50.5 in June Chinese PMIs come from the National Bureau of Statistics. These are not going to

The launch is towards the East Sea (AKA Sea of Japan). North Korea has been very busy developing missile tech and nukes. The country got a big boost during the previous US administration and has made the most of it. Back in the day a show of aggression like this from NK would tend to

UPCOMING EVENTS: Monday: China Caixin Manufacturing PMI, Swiss Retail Sales, US ISM Manufacturing PMI.Tuesday: RBA Meeting Minutes, Eurozone CPI, Eurozone Unemployment Rate, Canada Manufacturing PMI, US Job Openings, Fed Chair Powell.Wednesday: Australia Retail Sales, China Caixin Services PMI, Swiss Manufacturing PMI, Eurozone PPI, US ADP, US Jobless Claims, US ISM Services PMI, FOMC Meeting Minutes.Thursday:

Week Ahead 1st-5th July: Sun: French Parliamentary ElectionMon: Canada Day; Japanese Tankan (Q2), Japanese, Chinese Caixin, EZ, UK & US Manufacturing Final PMI (June), German Prelim. CPI (June), US ISM Manufacturing PMI (June)Tue: RBA Minutes (June), Australian & Canadian Manufacturing PMI Final (June), EZ Flash CPI (June), Unemployment Rate (May), US JOLTS Job Openings (May)Wed:

MUFG discusses the potential impact of the French elections and the June NFP print on EUR/USD. The focus is on the risk premium already priced into EUR/USD and how the election results could influence further movements. Key Points: Current Situation: Stabilization: EUR/USD has stabilized around the 1.0700 level after initially dropping by two big figures

Biden tweets: Folks, I might not walk as easily or talk as smoothly as I used to. I might not debate as well as I used to. But what I do know is how to tell the truth. He said something along the same lines at a campaign stop in North Carolina. I don’t put

Closing changes: S&P 500 down 0.4%Nasdaq down 0.7%Russell 2000 +0.1%DJIA -0.1%Toronto TSX Comp -0.5% The S&P 500 closed the half-year up a tidy 14% but today’s reversal from an all-time high is somewhat ominous. However against that backdrop note that the first three trading days of July are traditionally three of the strongest ones of

When I look at the July seasonals, there isn’t much in the FX market. The patterns are minor and the moves small as the summer complacency sets in. One thing stands out though: US equities. The S&P 500 has climbed for eight straight years in July with an average gain of more than 3%. Stretching

US May core PCE +0.1% vs 0.1% expectedUMich June final consumer sentiment 68.2 vs 65.6 prelimCanada April GDP M/M 0.3% vs. 0.3% expectedJoe Biden says he isn’t going anywhereDallas Fed May PCE price index +1.4% m/m annualized vs +2.7% priorFed’s Daly: The PCE data is ‘good news’ but the Fed is not done yetFed’s Bowman:

The future isn’t a mystery. Generative AI is coming for almost everything. Why? Machines will soon be able to see and hear in real time and interact with the world. That will unlock robotics. That’s why Elon Musk is pivoting Tesla to a robotics company. He sees the writing on the wall and realizes that

There were some larger individual movers, including a 2.2% drop in Nvidia shares and a 7% decline in Micron but that was balanced by a 2% rise in Amazon and a 3.5% rise in Adobe. Financials were modestly lower after the bank stress tests. On net, the moves were small but keep a three-day winning

Headlines: Major currencies move back to little changed on the dayJapan chief Cabinet secretary says closely watching FX movesLatest poll sees Le Pen’s faction winning 37% of votes in first round of French electionWhat are the main events for today?ECB’s Villeroy: Disinflation process is on trackFed’s Barkin: Policy tightening will eventually slow the economy furtherFed’s

According to NBS the US is preparing to evacuate Americans from Lebanon should the fighting between Hezbollah and Israel intensify. The increased military activity and the rhetoric suggest a risk of escalation, potentially opening up another front. The Pentagon is repositioning U.S. military assets closer to Israel and Lebanon.USS Wasp and Marines from the 24th

Prelim was 65.6Prior was 67.4Current conditions 65.9 vs 62.5 prelim (68.8 prior)Expectations 69.6 vs 67.6 prelim (66.5 prior)1-year inflation 3.0% vs 3.3% prelim5-year inflation 3.0% vs 3.0% prelim The stock market is at the highs of the day on this in part due to the drop in these inflation expectations number, which are closing in

Well, the Biden-Trump debate has come and gone and it was rather uninspiring to say the least. Amid Biden’s incoherent responses and Trump’s falsehoods, it is another reminder of the sad reality that these are two best presidential candidates set to lead the US. It’s definitely a question to the world, how did we end

Oil -6 to 478Gas -1 to 97Total 581 US production is much higher than 2021/22 because of much longer laterals an efficiency but there is a limit and this argues that production could slump by year end. This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

The US National Hurricane Center now sees a 100% chance of a tropical depression forming in the next 48 horus in the central Atlantic. Three storms are in the mix with one expect to cross the Yucatan peninsula on the weekend. The others should head in a westerly direction, aimed just south of Haiti, which

The S&P 500 touched a fresh all-time high today at 5523 (and counting). That marks the 32nd day with the index hitting a record high in the first half of the year. Today, Deutsche Bank compares the number of ATHs this year compared to historical norms. In short, it’s been one of the best years

It’s taking longer for policy to work, but it’s workingI’m looking at scenarios, we will react. It’s too early to tell what we will doInflation data shows it’s cooling, policy is working as expectedAnticipate generative AI will boost productivity, but it’s too early to speculate on”I think we’ll continue to see inflation printing above 2%,

The Dallas and Cleveland PCE remix data illustrates why Fed officials and markets are feeling better about the pricing picture. One month annualized trimmed mean 1.4% vs 2.7% prior (lowest this year)Six month annualized 3.0% vs 3.1% prior12-month 2.8% vs 2.9% prior Digging through the numbers, some drivers of inflation: Prescription drugsTobaccoSpectator sportsHospitalsUsed trucks Some

You know the drill by now. USDJPY hits a new 4-decade high, so pay attention to the price action in case the move sees push back from Japanese officials. Remember, they don’t target specific levels, they usually target volatility of the moves. At this stage the verbal jawboning is ignored, so if they really are

Japan’s Ministry of Finance appoints Atsushi Mimura as top currency diplomat, replacing Masato Kanda – Nikkei.Japan’s Ministry of Finance appoints Hirotsugu Shinkawa as Vice-Minister of Finance, replacing Eiji Chatani – Nikkei. The USDJPY saw some marginal downside after the news. This article was written by Arno V Venter at www.forexlive.com.

The EIA is out with its month report today, which is much more accurate than the weekly data. This is for April and it showed a 72,000 barrel per day increase to 13.248 million barrels per day, which is the highest since December. There has clearly been a stall in momentum since this time last

Bowman is a hawk so ‘haven’t quite’ isn’t a exactly banging the table for more hikes. We will continue to work toward Fed’s inflation goal ‘on our pace’There doesn’t seem to be a lot of appetite for a central bank digital currency in Congress This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

We are gaining more confidence in the forecastAnd there is more scope to disregard the smaller bumps in the disinflation processBeing “data-driven” currently does not mean being “flash-driven”Data is inherently noisy and there is a risk of overreacting to volatile newsShould refrain from changing 2% inflation target He’s taking heart in the better headline reading

Happy Friday, unless you’re a Democratic Presidential candidate and the knives are coming from all directions. It will be interesting to see where this is going because the status quo doesn’t look tenable. The market is going to have to deal with that but here’s a spoiler: Politics (and especially the President) is the most-overrated

The S&P 500 has given back an early 40-point gain to a record 5523 and is now trading flat on the day at 5484. Once again, I think bitcoin was the tell here as it sagged before stocks. It’s since stabiliize though, down around 1%. I have a real hard time parsing here what’s inflation,

Median inflation +3.3% y/y vs +3.3% prior If you don’t know what it is, median PCE inflation is the one-month inflation rate of the component whose expenditure weight is in the 50th percentile of price changes. According to the Cleveland Fed: By omitting outliers (small and large price changes) and focusing on the interior of

Prior +0.8%HICP +0.9% vs +0.9% y/y expectedPrior +0.8% Slight delay in the release by the source. The headline reading is softer than estimated but keeps unchanged from May. On the one hand, inflation in Italy looks to be holding at a comfortable level for the ECB. However, core prices were still seen closer to 2%

EBC Financial Group (EBC) is proud to announce that it has been honoured with two prestigious awards at the World Finance Awards 2024: Most Trusted FX Broker and Best CFD Broker. These accolades reflect EBC’s unwavering commitment to transparency, regulatory compliance, and exceptional customer service. This double recognition highlights global investors’ trust in EBC’s top-tier

The US political landscape could look far different when markets re-open on Monday. There are all kinds of rumors and reporting after Biden’s disastrous debate performance. The main ones indicate that Biden and his team plan to continue but I don’t really see those as insightful — people always want to continue. The question is

Overview of Today’s Market Dynamics The US stock market displayed varied performances across different sectors, with notable gains in healthcare driven by UnitedHealth (UNH) and a mixed sentiment in the technology sector. Here is a deep dive into the sectors, highlighting significant movers and the overall market sentiments that could help shape your investment decisions.

I’m not sure how many times we’ve heard these comments before, but here we go: Japan FinMin Suzuki: Won’t comment on forex levels.Japan FinMin Suzuki: Important for currencies to move in stable manner reflecting fundamentals.Japan FinMin Suzuki: Rapid FX moves undesirable.Japan FinMin Suzuki: Deeply concerned about excessive, one-sided moves on forex.Japan FinMin Suzuki: Closely watching

Australia private sector credit 0.4% vs 0.5% priorHousing credit 0.4% vs 0.4% prior This article was written by Arno V Venter at www.forexlive.com.

The odds of a Trump Presidency skyrocketed yesterday after a poor performance in the debate from Joe Biden. CNBC’s Jim Cramer showed up with the right attitude today, looking for concrete winners and losers if Trump takes power in November, particularly if there is a Republican sweep of the House and Senate. Cramer said he

The latest IFOP polling data: Far right 36.5%Left popular front 29.0%Macron’s centrist camp 20.5% The poll sees Le Pen’s National Rally getting 225-265 seats with the left wing getting 170-200 and Macron’s camp getting 70-100 seats. It takes 289 seats to get a majority so the politics — assuming these ranges are right — the

In this post, I wanted to give a recent example on how to select the best forex pairs to trade. This is an important topic which is not talked about often enough in the retail trading industry. As I explained already in a previous post, when you trade forex, you want to buy the currency

Real time consumer demand indicators still seem solid, not frothyI’m still hearing good solid demand growth in conversations with contactsCompanies have cut back on their hiring but they have also cut back on firing On the headline remark, he’s responding to the outlook for rate cuts. Once again, it just reaffirms that they’re not looking

The euro isn’t concerned today about the French election but equities are. Closing changes: Stoxx 600 -0.2%German DAX +0.1%UK FTSE 100 flatFrench CAC -0.8%Italy MIB -0.2%Spain IBEX -0.2% French stocks tried to rebound last week but it all evaporated late this week and we’re trading at the lowest since January. This article was written by

Prior 25kUnemployment rate 6.0% vs 5.9% expectedPrior 5.9% German unemployment rose more than expected in June, with the jobless rate also ticking a little higher back to 6.0%. On the latter, that is the highest reading since May 2021. This is an added sign that the slump in the manufacturing sector is starting to bite

CNBC reported early today: Not only does Biden not plan to drop out, Biden remains committed to a second debate in September, citing an advisor. Other reports say that there is no pressure coming from his cabinet to resign. To be clear, the decision is his alone and to get a viable candidate, VP Kamala

Fundamental Overview The USD continues to be backed by good economic data as we have also seen recently from the US PMIs last Friday and the US Consumer Confidence report this week. Yesterday, we also got the US Jobless Claims figures where the data showed that the labour market continues to rebalance via less job

There are still lags to policy transmission that are playing outOpen to the idea that rate hikes are not constraining the economy as much as the Fed thinksThat is given the ‘remarkable’ strength in the economy that they are seeingServices, shelter price-setters still have room to push prices higherWill proceed ‘deliberately’ on policy He definitely

The big 7 finished mostly higher across the board (apart from Nvidia which was down 1.9%) with Amazon finishing up over 2% on the day with Meta in second place at 1.2%. However, the chart of intraday performance tells us everything we need to know. Messy and rangebound price action across the board. Not too

Below is an extract from Eamonn’s handy posts regarding the midpoint setting, and here is some further explanation of what it is and how it works. The People’s Bank of China set the onshore yuan (CNY) reference rate for the trading session ahead. USD/CNY is the onshore yuan. Its permitted to trade plus or minus

Today we get lots of economic data although the focus will be mainly on the US PCE report. In the European session we get the preliminary inflation data for France, Spain and Italy and while it could have a slight impact on the EUR, it shouldn’t change the market’s pricing. Moving on to the American

Prior was +0.2%Prior core m/m +0.2% (revised to +0.3%)Core y/y +2.6% vs +2.6% expected Headline PCE 0.0% m/m vs 0.0% expectedHeadline PCE +2.6% y/y vs +2.6% expectedPersonal income +0.5% vs +0.4% expectedPersonal spending +0.2% vs +0.3% expectedPrior personal spending +0.2% (revised to +0.1%)PCE services excluding energy +0.1% vs +0.3% prior There are no big surprises

U.S. Deputy Secretary of State Campbell raised serious concerns regarding China’s destabilizing actions in the South Sea in a call with China Executive Vice Foreign Minister Ma Zhaoxu – State Department. This article was written by Arno V Venter at www.forexlive.com.

Prior +3.6%HICP +3.5% vs +3.4% y/y expectedPrior +3.8% Spanish annual inflation continues to hover just above 3%, despite it being a slight fall compared to May. Core annual inflation remains at 3.0%, unchanged from the previous month. Sticky. This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

BDSwiss continues to take 2024 by storm, with the brokerage once again standing out from the competition thanks to another successful performance, this time at UF AWARDS Global 2024. The company picked up two prestigious trophies, receiving the “Best Research and Education Provider – Global” and “Best Trade Execution – Global” awards in a glittering

French stocks are trading at the lowest since January and are down year-to-date. They’re off 0.85% and at the lows of the day. The first round of the French vote is on Sunday and the second round is July 7. The polls show Marine Le Pen’s party getting about 36% of the vote in the

April GDP 0.3% vs. 0.3% expected and 0.0% prior.May Advance GDP 0.1% vs. 0.3% prior.Services producing industries +0.3%.Goods producing industries +0.3%.15 of 20 sectors increasing in the month. Wholesale trade, mining, quarrying, and oil and gas extraction and manufacturing were the largest contributors to growth in April after recording declines in the previous month. Following

Well done we made it through the presidential debate. There were plenty of takeaways you can derive on the political side, but this didn’t mean much for markets. We saw some initial upside in the USD (downside in Antipodean currencies) but the moves pulled back the deeper we went into the debate. The most noticeable

The US PCE inflation numbers were mostly in line with estimates but there were some signs of cooling inflation and that led to some dollar selling. There was also some angst about a hot number in the report in light of higher Canadian and Australian data this week. The main headline was 0.0% m/m but

It’s been another mixed session for commodities. Energy: oil saw decent upside trading higher by over 1% while natgas was down by about the same percentage. Precious metals: saw gold and silver put in a decent bounce while platinum trades lower by over 2%. It’s been a challenge getting a solid read on commodities in

Fundamental Overview This was a messy week for many markets, including gold. After some up and downs, we are ending the week basically flat. There was no real change in the fundamentals this week as the data just showed some more rebalancing in the US labour market but didn’t signal any material weakness. As of

Prior 100.3; revised to 102.2 The beat here isn’t as strong at first glance, amid a revision to the May reading. Still, it points to a better outlook on the Swiss economy in six months’ time. This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

Fundamental Overview The USD continues to be backed by good economic data as we have also seen recently from the US PMIs last Friday and the US Consumer Confidence report this week. Yesterday, we also got the US Jobless Claims figures where the data showed that the labour market continues to rebalance via less job

Japan Tokyo Core CPI YY: 2.1 vs 2.0% expectedJobs/Applications ratio: 1.24 vs 1.26 expectedUnemployment Rate: 2.6% vs 2.6% expected Worth keeping in mind that the Tokyo Core CPI is seen as a leading indicator for the regular national core CPI YY number (see below), and we get the Tokyo numbers well in advance of the

Fundamental Overview The USD continues to be backed by good economic data as we have also seen recently from the US PMIs last Friday and the US Consumer Confidence report this week. Yesterday, we also got the US Jobless Claims figures where the data showed that the labour market continues to rebalance via less job

The AUD got a decent boost this week after hotter-than-expected CPI data for May which showed the weighted YY measure print at 4.0% and the CPI YY SA gauge jump to 4.1%. As a result of the beat markets repriced quite aggressively on the rate expectations side, with probabilities for a hike in one of

Equity futures trades mostly green across the board. The outperformers are the Hang Seng and the A50, at the same time we are starting to see some of the earlier USD strength soften a bit and some of the earlier weakness in the Antipodean currencies recover as the presidential debate carries on. For those who

It was a relatively quiet Asia-Pac session for markets. The presidential debate saw mostly muted market reactions as we didn’t really learn much from it. The USD saw some initial upside at the start of the debate, but some of the move moderated as the debate drew to a close. Equity markets are well supported

Dollar pairs are sitting near flattish levels on the day now, and that includes USD/JPY too. The pair was up earlier at around 161.00 but is now trading back to flat levels around 160.75 on the day. Other dollar pairs are also not doing a whole lot, with EUR/USD and GBP/USD sitting roughly flat as

Eurostoxx +0.2%Germany DAX +0.4%France CAC 40 -0.1%UK FTSE +0.5%Spain IBEX +0.2%Italy FTSE MIB +0.2% On the week itself, the CAC 40 is down roughly 1.5% currently to its lowest since last Monday. The jitters are still up in the air as we await the first round of the French election this weekend. From earlier this

Prior +2.3%HICP +2.5% vs +2.5% y/y expectedPrior +2.6% The good news is that headline annual inflation continues to moderate and inch closer towards the desired 2% mark. But as is the case with the rest of the region, services inflation remains a key sticking point. Here is the breakdown: This article was written by Justin

German DAX futures +0.2%UK FTSE futures +0.3% As we have seen during the week, any early optimism can easily be faded when it comes to European equities. French stocks will remain in focus after the CAC 40 fell by 1% yesterday ahead of the first round of elections this weekend. Elsewhere, S&P 500 futures are

Rapid FX moves are undesirableImportant for currency to move in a stable manner, reflecting fundamentalsWill take appropriate actions on excessive FX moves They don’t seem tired of working the same copy pasta over and over again. USD/JPY continues to keep at it on the day, weaving in and around the 161 level over the past

Compared to the last publication of the poll, National Rally is now seen winning as much as 37% of the popular vote. That is up 2% from previously. Meanwhile, Macron’s Together ensemble is seen garnering just 20% of the vote – down 2% from previously. As an aside, just be wary that this does not

Another busy day on the economic calendar, but just like yesterday I’m not sure whether what we have today will move the needle in any significant way. Japanese inflation data during Asia-Pac was a nothing burger (as it usually is) and won’t be enough to sway the BoJ’s decision making.Later in the EU session we

No major surprises in terms of the upcoming meeting expectations for the major central banks. Markets are leaning towards a 66% chance of a hike for the BoJ, but with them also planning to announce bond tapering at the meeting, maybe they leave off the hikes for now. I don’t think the bank has in

There are a couple of large ones to take note of, as highlighted in bold. And they are all for EUR/USD, layered between 1.0650 through to 1.0725. That is likely to help lock price action in European trading, before the expiries roll off later in the day. If anything, it suggests the same kind of

Prior +0.7% On an annual basis, import prices were seen down 0.4% compared to May last year. If you strip out energy prices, import prices were up 0.1% on the month compared to April. This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

Although gold prices set a new high earlier in the year, the momentum of the rally has diminished.Traditional relationships between gold prices and other factors such as US real yields and the US dollar have broken down. Historically, higher US real yields and a stronger US dollar would suppress gold prices, but this year, both

We are bound to hear a ton of updates as the debate plays out, so I’ll update highlights and comments below as it plays out, I’ll be sticking to things that are more specific to markets as much as possible (sigh): Trump says planned tariffs will decrease deficits and won’t increase problematic inflationTrump says China

The USD leads the other majors this morning by quite a decent margin, while the two antipodeans (AUD and NZD) are pushing lower. The reaction in FX suggests markets think Trump is leading the debate (with broad consensus viewing a Trump victory as a positive for the USD and negative for the CNY and AUD).

PBoC injects 50 billion Yuan via 7-day reverse reposSets 7-day reverse repo rate at 1.8% vs 1.8% prior This article was written by Arno V Venter at www.forexlive.com.

The dollar is holding slightly higher across the board so far today, as we head into the final stretch of June and Q2 trading. The main pair to watch is still USD/JPY, with price now testing waters above the 161 mark. Where art thou Tokyo? As a reminder, the pace of the weakness in the

EU leaders agree on top EU jobs, giving Ursula von der Leyen a second term as head of the European Commission – diplomats.EU leaders agree on Portugal’s Antonio Costa as the new chairman of EU summits – diplomats.EU leaders agree on Estonia’s Kaja Kallas for the job of EU top diplomat – diplomats. This article

If you want a fantastic rundown of what the USD/CNY midpoint is look no further than the daily updates from Eamonn here. This article was written by Arno V Venter at www.forexlive.com.

Japan Industrial Production: 2.8% vs 2.0 expectedProduction forecast 1 month ahead: -4.8% vs prior 6.9%Production forecast 2 month ahead: 3.6% vs -5.6% This article was written by Arno V Venter at www.forexlive.com.

US May durable goods orders +0.1% vs -0.1% expectedUS Q1 final GDP +1.4% vs +1.3% expectedUS initial jobless claims 233K vs. 236K expectedUS May goods trade balance (advance) -100.62B vs. -97.95B priorUS May wholesale inventories +0.6% vs +0.1% priorUS sells 7-year notes at 4.276% vs 4.279% WIFed’s Bostic: Sees a cut this year and 4

Deutsche Bank is out with a new set of FX forecasts and has this to say: “We have been bullish on the USD throughout the year on the premise that the Fed will cut slower than other central banks and that the dollar was under-pricing the US election. The dollar’s rally in recent days is

Hope you have your popcorn ready for the upcoming presidential debate between Biden and Trump (due at 9PM NY time). Bloomberg was out with some helpful thoughts on what type of topics could be important for markets: Topics like taxes, tariffs, electric cars, semiconductors, and cryptocurrencies could be focal points in the debate.Stocks with high

Friday’s May US PCE market has been circled on everyone’s economic calendar all week long but I tend to thing it’s overhyped. We got a blockbuster CPI report for May already and it certainly delivered with prices well-below the consensus. The thing is, the market didn’t really run with it. US 2-year yields are down

If inflation moves towards 2%, eventually a rate cut is on the tableMonetary policy is currently restrictiveInflation should ease with current policy settingUpside risks to inflation persistEconomy strong but activity has moderatedStill willing to raise rates again if inflation doesn’t rise Bowman is a hawk so her comments aren’t a surprise. This article was written

Oil has bounced back nicely from the post-OPEC dip. I think there was some short covering after shorts hit a record into the meeting. In the bigger picture, US demand hasn’t been good to start the driving season and there is some global cyclical angst creeping into many markets. OPEC looks to be holding the

Overview of Today’s US Stock Market Today’s stock market presented a mixed picture highlighted by strong performances in technology and communication services, contrasted with difficulties in the semiconductor and financial sectors. The market’s divergent path showcases the unfolding dynamics in investor sentiments and their strategic impact on portfolio management. 📈 Technology & Communication: A Beacon

Prior was 4.650%Bid to cover 2.58 vs 2.43 prior Yields steadily fell today ahead of the auction after a grind higher yesterday. We haven’t seen a coupon auction tail since the 3-year offering on June 10th. Since then, 2s, 3s (just now) 5s, 10s, 20s, 30s, and 5-year TIPS all stopped-through. I wouldn’t expect much

Eurostoxx +0.2%Germany DAX +0.3%France CAC 40 +0.2%UK FTSE -0.1%Spain IBEX -0.4%Italy FTSE MIB flat The CAC 40 index is pretty much flat on the week when accounting for the opening moves here. The DAX is seen up just 0.1% on the week when taking in the slight gains above. So, that speaks to the lack

Bank of America anticipates that an imbalance in the demand and supply of the Japanese yen (JPY) this summer will contribute to USD/JPY reaching 163 by September 2024. Various factors, including increased investments in foreign equities, trade balance struggles, and political risks, are expected to exert downward pressure on the yen. Key Points: Imbalance in

Look out for the results just after the top of the hour. Here are some pros and cons from BMO: Pros We haven’t seen a coupon auction tail since the 3-year offering on June 10th. Since then, 2s, 5s, 10s, 20s, 30s, and 5-year TIPS all stopped-through with above-average non-dealer allocations driven by elevated indirect

Prior was -1Composite index -8 vs -2 prior Selected Manufacturing Comments “It is clear inflation has forced the customer to make ‘either/or’ decisions on how they spend their money. We see value added items in the food sector being affected strongly. Our business is not bad per se, but not as robust as we would

North Korea says it has successfully conducted an important test in advancing missile technology – KCNA.North Korea says test aimed at developing multiple warhead missile – KCNA. This article was written by Arno V Venter at www.forexlive.com.

Japan Chief Cabinet Secretary Hayashi: Won’t comment on forex levels, potential FX intervention.Japan Chief Cabinet Secretary Hayashi: Will take appropriate steps on excessive FX moves.Japan Chief Cabinet Secretary Hayashi: Important for currencies to move in stable manner reflecting fundamentals.Japan Chief Cabinet Secretary Hayashi: Rapid FX moves undesirable. This article was written by Arno V Venter

We don’t do that (setting policy based on one data point)Inflation has picked up a little bitBut it could just be that monetary policy is taking longer to feed through to the services sectorThe right policy response to that, clearly, would be to hold your nerveWe’re coming down in a slightly bumpy way, but we

There are a couple to take note of on the day, as highlighted in bold. The first ones are for EUR/USD and they are sandwiching the current spot price at 1.0650 and 1.0700. That is likely to help lock price action at the current levels before we get to US trading later. There will be

Prior was -7.7%Index at vs 72.3 prior This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

The GBP has been trading at a ‘political premium’ ahead of the elections due to expectations of political stability.Polls indicate a decisive win for Labour, which is expected to form a majority government. This is seen as a positive development for political stability. FX investors hope that political stability, coupled with growing real incomes and

It’s been a lively week for tech stocks but the market appears to be in something of a holding pattern ahead of tomorrow’s PCE report. The Nasdaq sold off early in the week and late last week but it’s slowly climbed back. Shares of Nvidia haven’t climbed back in the same way and remain 10%

Today marks one month until the initial release of Q2 GDP and the Atlanta Fed model is taking down its estimate to 2.7% from 3.0% in light of today’s economic data. “After recent releases from the US Census Bureau, the US Bureau of Economic Analysis, and the National Association of Realtors, a decrease in the

Weaker yen is an upward factor for pricesClosely monitoring that in conducting monetary policy The remarks are cited by a Japanese Cabinet office official, so it isn’t exactly the usual jawboning. But still, worth noting. USD/JPY continues to sit around 160.30-50 levels on the day, currently around 160.45. This article was written by Justin Low

BOE will probably cut in AugustSees bank rate down to 3.5% by the end of 2025 Market pricing is 53% for an August cut and the implied rate at the end of 2025 is 4.01%. This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

Inflation moving in the right direction, a cut is likely in Q4Has pencilled in four cuts for 2025Wants to be ‘absolutely certain’ inflation will return to 2% before an initial cut that should be seen as the first in a series, that is the reason for patienceShares of goods rising 5% or more has fallen

Prior +1.3% Looking at the details, the annual growth rate of loans to households was at 0.3% in May (previously 0.2%) and loans to non-financial corporations was also at 0.3% (previously 0.2%). This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

He adds that he expects it to be a “quiet summer” for the ECB on rates. In other words, they’re not prepping for a move in July. But that is already widely telegraphed and largely expected by markets at this stage. This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

Second reading was +1.3%Final Q4 reading was +3.2% annualizedQ3 was +5.2% annualized Details: Consumer spending +1.5% vs +2.0% second reading GDP final sales +1.8% vs +1.7% second readingGDP deflator +3.1% vs +3.1% second readingCore PCE +3.7% vs +3.6% second reading Corporate profits -2.7% vs -1.7% in second readingPCE services inflation excluding energy and housing +5.1%

Catalysts remain thin but we are seeing some strength creep in the for JPY during the early Asia-Pac session so far. I would doubt whether the hotter-than-expected retail sales data is to blame because the JPY very seldom takes this data series seriously. Maybe some profit taking on longs as we trade above prior intervention

The second-largest US pharmacy chain doesn’t like what it’s seeing from the US consumer. The company lowered its guidance in what it said was “reflecting challenging pharmacy industry trends and a worse-than-expected US consumer environment.” Oftentimes, companies blame macro for poor execution but at other times they can offer an early sign of trouble. We

The report notes that the survey is expected to be used as a basis for discussions when the BOJ is to meet with bond market participants on 9-10 July. The sources add that the survey is asking market players about their expectations on the range and pace of the tapering process. As they look to

Climbing to the top ranks of the world’s largest corporations is no small feat. However, the efforts invested often yield immense returns. The company we’re discussing experienced a decade of financial losses after its founding, finally turning a profit in 2003. Prior to that, the dot-com bubble had plummeted its stock from $113 to $5.50

As such, there should only be minor remarks regarding monetary policy. That said, it is always best to be prepared just in case. His remarks will follow from the BOE statement last week here, which dropped a couple of subtle dovish hints. The Financial Stability Report is expected to be published at 0930 GMT. This

There are some people out there who believe a war between Israel and Lebanon is imminent, or at least the odds are rising. That’s a tough call to make but it’s underpinning a rise in oil (and perhaps gold?) today. Now Israel and Lebanon are not material producers of fossil fuels but the fear here

Prior was +0.6% (revised to +0.2%)Ex-transport -0.1% versus +0.2% expected. Last month 0.0%.Ex-defense MoM was -0.2% vs 0.0% last month (revised to -0.5%)Nondefense cap ex-air -0.6% vs 0.1% expected. Last month +0.3%Shipments -0.3% vs +1.2% prior This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

Whenever there are five economic data releases at the same time, there will also be a mixed picture. That was the case today with Q1 GDP revised a tad higher, along with higher inflationary numbers. At the same time, corporate profits in the report were taken down and durable goods orders non-defense ex-air (a good

Fundamental Overview The USD continues to be backed by good economic data as we have also seen recently from the US PMIs last Friday and the US Consumer Confidence report this week. Although such data keeps the interest rates expectations stable around two cuts by the end of the year, it should also support the

Economic confidence 95.9 vs 96.2 expectedPrior 96.0Industrial confidence -10.1 vs -9.6 expectedPrior -9.9Services confidence 6.5 vs 6.4 expectedPrior 6.5 Euro area economic sentiment eased a touch in June, with manufacturing confidence being the slight drag. Adding to that, consumer inflation expectations did nudge up a little to 13.1 – up from 12.5 previously. It points

If you want a fantastic rundown of what the USD/CNY midpoint is look no further than the daily updates from Eamonn here. This article was written by Arno V Venter at www.forexlive.com.

Fundamental Overview The USD continues to be backed by good economic data as we have also seen recently from the US PMIs last Friday and the US Consumer Confidence report this week. Although such data keeps the interest rates expectations stable around two cuts by the end of the year, it should also support the

Prior was +0.1% (revised to +0.2%)Retail inventories ex autos 0.0% vs +0.3% prior (revised to +0.2%) This is a lower tier release but is positive for Q2 GDP. This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

German DAX futures flatUK FTSE futures flat This comes with US futures backpedaling a little after tech shares stirred up some last-minute gains yesterday. S&P 500 futures are down 0.2% on the day currently. For European indices, French stocks will remain in focus after the CAC 40 fell by 0.7% in the day before. The

Initial jobless claims 233K vs. 236K expected and 238K prior (revised to 239K).Continuing Claims 1839K vs. 1824K expected and 1828K prior (revised to 1821K). The data is within the range of estimates and shouldn’t get the market to fret over it too much. Of note, Continuing Claims just set a new cycle high, which shows

Headlines: BOJ’s Uchida says closely monitoring yen movement in conducting monetary policyBOJ reportedly conducting survey of bond market players over its tapering plansECB’s Kažimír: I think we can expect one more rate cut this yearBOE says that UK households, businesses are coping with higher ratesRBA’s Hauser: It would be a bad mistake to set policy

USDJPY getting close to 161 after taking out the previous intervention highs close to 161.20. Mostly likely quite a decent amount of stops triggered as we broke to new highs helping the pair higher. With treading on fresh ground it means intervention watch is in overdrive in markets. It’s easy to blame the move in

Discover the disadvantages of a trailing stop loss and what to do instead to maximize returns in the markets The post Disadvantages Of A Trailing Stop Loss (An Explanatory Guide) appeared first on TradingwithRayner.

Goods trade balance (Adv) -100.62B vs. -97.95B prior This is low tier data and not a market moving release. This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at www.forexlive.com.

The dollar is holding in a decent spot on the week but is marginally lower today against the likes of the euro and sterling. The ranges for the day are still relatively narrow, so I wouldn’t look much into that. Instead, the focus stays on USD/JPY as it trades to its highest levels in more

Japan’s top currency diplomat: Seriously concerned about recent rapid yen weakeningUS May new home sales 0.619m vs 0.640m expectedECB’s Lane: If baseline holds, there will be more cutsPierre Andurand ditches oil in favor of copper and cocoaUS 5-year notes sell at 4.331% vs 4.335% WIThe latest poll puts Le Pen at 36%EIA US weekly crude

Counter-cyclical buffer maintained at 2%Risk management in private equity sector needs improving to reduce vulnerabilitiesGlobal financial risk environment “broadly unchanged” from Q1Adjustment to higher interest rates is still not completeMarket prices are still vulnerable to a sharp correctionMany UK households are under pressure from higher living costs, ratesUK businesses “broadly resilient” to current economic outlookFull

Fundamental Overview The USD continues to be backed by good economic data as we have also seen recently from the US PMIs last Friday and the US Consumer Confidence report this week. Although such data keeps the interest rates expectations stable around two cuts by the end of the year, it should also support the

It’s a busy economic schedule ahead for both Europe and the US today. However, in a week like this where quarter-end flows are in the mix and where markets are focused on idiosyncratic drivers like politics, I’m not sure whether the tier 2 and tier 3 data will really matter to markets as much. We

The big 7 kept up pretty well when compared to the price action we saw in the USD and yields. Tesla was the best performer (still down more than 20% YTD though), while Google treaded water to finish close to flat. Amazon finished up 3.9%, with some good notes from Adam regarding Amazon and the

Fundamental Overview The USD continues to be backed by good economic data as we have also seen recently from the US PMIs last Friday and the US Consumer Confidence report this week. Although such data keeps the interest rates expectations stable around two cuts by the end of the year, it should also support the

Fundamental Overview The USD continues to be backed by good economic data as we have also seen recently from the US PMIs last Friday and the US Consumer Confidence report this week. Although such data keeps the interest rates expectations stable around two cuts by the end of the year, it should also support the

Japan retail sales YY: 3.0% vs 2.0% expectedJapan large scale retail sales YY: 4.0% vs 3.0% prior This article was written by Arno V Venter at www.forexlive.com.

US equities slumped early in the day but battled back late in the day on strong bids in Nvidia late to turn a 2% decline into a small gain. Amazon led the way all day as it climbed 4% in a breakout to a record high. Closing changes: S&P 500 +0.2%Nasdaq Comp +0.5%DJIA +0.1%Russell 2000

A mixed result for commodities with platinum up over 3% while natgas down more than 4%. Compared to the strength in the USD the results shows a lot more noise than signal. It’s always tricky to pin down reasons for moves when we have quarter-end flows to deal with so just keep that in mind

The European session today is going to be empty as we get just some low tier releases. In the American session we get the Final US Q1 GDP, the US Durable Goods Orders and the US Jobless Claims figures. The GDP report is the “Final” one, so it’s very old news (as it’s always the

Upcoming debate could put some short-term focus on upcoming US electionsLikes med-term USD upside exposureUSD upside exposure has added benefit of hedging against non-US political risks (France)Thinks the most negative scenario for both the USD and the S&P500 is a democrat sweep, while the most positive scenario for both is a republican sweep Below is

It’s been a good day for the AUD and the USD, less than optimal day for the JPY and NZD. The AUD was supported after a hotter-than-expected CPI print and markets seeing about a 60% change of a hike at the September meeting and 74% odds of a hike by November. The USD’s move was

New Zealand Business Outlook: 6.1 vs 11.2 priorNew Zealand Own Activity: 12.2 vs 11.8 prior This article was written by Arno V Venter at www.forexlive.com.

It’s all about whether a further run higher will trigger intervention from Tokyo at this stage. It’s a psychological game for the most part, and you can even coin it as a game of chicken. Do buyers have more resolve or does the conviction sit with Japanese authorities instead? The thing to watch is still

It’s been a very quiet session on the Asia-Pac side with very little notable news releases or fundamental news. The biggest focus for markets have been the continued weakness in the JPY which saw the USDJPY trade very close to the 161 level, but has since backed off the highs. Looking at the price action

Cable has sagged to a session low, down 69 pips to 1.2617. That’s the lowest since May 14 but roughly in the middle of the 2024 range. What’s most-worrisome is the three-day reversal on the chart, which is a textbook reversal pattern. A finish today below Monday’s low of 1.2622 would complete the pattern. Today’s

The BoC’s preferred core inflation gauges, such as trimmed mean and weighted median CPI, surged in May, indicating a reacceleration of underlying inflationary pressures.Core services inflation, including shelter costs, remains very high. Shelter inflation is broadening, with rents continuing to soar and other drivers of shelter costs entering a new phase.Categories that previously contributed to

Risk sentiment trades fairly mixed as we close out the Asia-Pac session. FX: In the FX space, the AUD has moved into the top spot (earlier the JPY was the strongest), while the USD has moved into the bottom spot. Probably not that surprising to see the USD softer after the gains we’ve seen in

PBoC injects 100 billion Yuan via 7-day reverse reposSets 7-day reverse repo rate at 1.8% vs 1.8% prior This article was written by Arno V Venter at www.forexlive.com.

Looking across US equity sectors we only had two sectors in the green, that being Consumer Discretionary (+1.45%) and Communication Services (+0.01%) which was basically flat. The rest of the sectors were pressured with energy (-0.98%) and financials (-0.63%) taking the biggest punch. Worth noting that despite the shaky price action the YTD performance is

China industrial profits YY 3.4% vs 4.3% prior This article was written by Arno V Venter at www.forexlive.com.

Famed oil trader Pierre Andurand is out of the oil market, at least for now. His main fund lost around 50% last year on bad bets on crude and he’s soured on the sector and now has a ‘mixed’ outlook. “We will reengage in the oil markets once we obtain greater clarity on the supply

Below is an extract from Eamonn’s handy posts regarding the midpoint setting, and here is some further explanation of what it is and how it works. The People’s Bank of China set the onshore yuan (CNY) reference rate for the trading session ahead. USD/CNY is the onshore yuan. Its permitted to trade plus or minus

Japan FinMin Suzuki: Won’t comment on forex levels.Japan FinMin Suzuki: FX stability is desirable.Japan FinMin Suzuki: Watching FX moves with high sense of urgency.Japan FinMin Suzuki: Deeply concerned about FX impact on economy.Japan FinMin Suzuki: Will take necessary actions on FX This article was written by Arno V Venter at www.forexlive.com.

Credit Agricole’s latest G10 FX PIX 2.0 model indicates significant shifts in currency positioning. The EUR is now deemed oversold, while the CHF has turned overbought. These findings are based on recent IMM flow data and overall market sentiment. Key Points: G10 FX PIX 2.0 Model Insights: The model shows GBP, CHF, and NZD as

Fed: Banks reported higher losses than in 2023 stress test as bank balance sheets are riskier and expenses are higher.US Federal Reserve stress test shows large US banks are well positioned to weather severe recession and stay above minimum capital requirements.Fed: Thirty-one large US banks reported nearly $685 billion in losses under 2024 Fed stress

Shares of Nvidia are down 2.1% today after trading higher earlier. It’s been volatile in the past week after rising to briefly become the world’s most-valuable company. Nvidia Chief Executive Jensen Huang spoke at the company’s annual meeting today and one of his comments stood out on the macro front. He said the next frontier

Japanese chief currency diplomat Kanda dropped all the warnings just before Tokyo went to bed but there was no intervention. It’s now nearly 1 am in Tokyo and the market is sensing that it’s safe for a least a few hours. I imagine there’s some element of short-covering here as those expecting a line in

Shares of Amazon are catching a bid today, rising 3.1% to an all time high. The climb above $192 along with 10.406 billion shares outstanding puts the company above a $2 trillion market cap for the first time. That’s against earnings guidance of $10-14 billion in the current quarter and consensus earnings of $5.74 next

MUFG anticipates that the latest inflation data from Australia could prompt the Reserve Bank of Australia to consider another rate hike at its upcoming meeting on August 6th. The surprising uptick in inflation, coupled with fiscal stimulus measures and the RBA’s current policy bias, strengthens the case for maintaining a hawkish stance. Key Points: Inflation

Prior was 4.331% The cash market has dipped after a 0.4 bp stop through. This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

S&P 500 and Nasdaq futures are down 0.3% just ahead of the open. Eyes are on shares of Nvidia, which ended a three-day 16% correction yesterday with a 6% gain. That gain looked set to continue a few hours ago with shares up as much as 2.5% in the premarket., However those gains evaporated over

The US Dollar started to appreciate in the European session and it’s adding to the gains as we head towards the European close. There was no fresh catalyst this week that justifies the current price action. This might be just noise from quarter-end and some flows from USD/JPY which broke through the key 160.00 handle

Prior was 0.634m (revised to 0.698m)Sales down 11.3%Supply 9.3 months vs April at 8.1 months The large upward revision to the prior is responsible for a big part of that 11.3% decline but these numbers are still soft. I wrote yesterday about how Restoration Hardware and Pool Corp have had some troubling comments about housing-related

Le Pen’s party at 36%Macron’s group has 21% IFOP projects Le Pen and her allies will get 220-260 seats in the National Assembly, short of the 289 needed for a majority but not far off. This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

Verbal intervention isn’t what it used to be. There was a time when tough talk from Kanda was worth +150 pips and some serious reconsideration of positions. Today, he pushed all the buttons and the market isn’t impressed. After a 35-pip dip, there has been a rapid turnaround to a session high. The one line

Today the only notable event was the Australian monthly CPI report which surprised to the upside and raised the chances of a rate hike from the RBA. If you want some more details you can read Justin’s post here. The rest of the day is basically empty with very low tier indicators that won’t be

Martin Schlegel was widely tapped for the job once Thomas Jordan announced his retirement. Antoine Martin is set to become the new vice-chairman while Petra Tschdin was appointed to the three-member governing board of the SNB. All appointments are effective Oct 1. Update: He’s out with some comments. Great honor to be named next ChairmanStresses

They note that several measures of demand is slowing, and that the housing market’s sizeable imbalances make it relatively more vulnerable to the lagged impact of higher rates.Furthermore, they note that cutting rates now might not be enough to avoid a recession (looking at the ‘O Canada Rule’ which is based on a modified version

Below is an extract from Eamonn’s handy posts regarding the midpoint setting, and here is some further explanation of what it is and how it works. The People’s Bank of China set the onshore yuan (CNY) reference rate for the trading session ahead. USD/CNY is the onshore yuan. Its permitted to trade plus or minus

We will take rate cuts step by step There is this consensus among market participants that even if things deteriorate that central banks will move slowly. That very well may be the case but it would be a mistake and the market would certainly be kicking and screaming in protest. This article was written by

Trademax Australia Limited, operating under the TMGM brand, a leading provider of contracts for difference (CFDs) and margin forex trading services, announces that the Australian Securities and Investments Commission (ASIC) has revoked the interim stop orders previously issued in relation to TMGM’s contracts for difference. On June 13, 2024, ASIC issued interim stop orders prohibiting

The market is pricing in a 36% chance of a cut on July 18 and rising up to 90% for Sept 12. Through 2025, there are 117 bps in cuts priced in. This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

Closing changes: Stoxx 600 -0.5%German DAX -0.1%UK FTSE 100 -0.2%French CAC -0.7%Italy MIB -0.4%Spain IBEX -0.7% The first round of the French election is this Sunday. This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

If you want a fantastic rundown of what the USD/CNY midpoint is look no further than the daily updates from Eamonn here. This article was written by Arno V Venter at www.forexlive.com.

Fundamental Overview Crude oil managed to eventually break above the key $80 resistance as the market has finally started to catch up to positive drivers. In fact, we got the recent OPEC+’s extension of voluntary output cuts, and we are seeing a pickup in economic activity as the US PMIs showed once again last Friday.

ABN AMRO with some thoughts on the Fed: Expected to cut rates starting in September 2024Recent macro data indicate a cooling economy, with lower consumption as excess savings are depleted.But believes household balance sheets and accommodative financial conditions are expected to provide a floor for economic activity, preventing a deeper recession.Reasons for expecting cuts in

German DAX futures +0.5%UK FTSE futures +0.2% This comes after the better showing in Wall Street towards the latter stages yesterday. For European indices, it has been a bit of a back and forth week thus far. Meanwhile, S&P 500 futures are seen up 0.1% on the day currently. This article was written by Justin

Overview of Today’s Stock Market Today’s stock market presents a complex tapestry of gains and losses across various sectors, compelling investors to take a nuanced view of the market dynamics. From the heatmap, the technology sector shows a resilient performance, particularly highlighted by Apple Inc.’s rise. In contrast, companies in the consumer cyclical and communication

Headlines: USD/JPY slowly testing the waters above the 160.00 markUSDJPY Technical Analysis – The market is testing the intervention level againIs a rate hike back on the menu for the RBA?Equities see early gains fade as the push and pull continuesECB’s Panetta says should avoid even “casual forward guidance” on timing of rate movesECB’s Rehn:

The dynamics of inflation continue to indicate that it will stabilise at target in the medium-term Is dismissing more resistant price pressures and calling it a bumpy road the new “transitory” talk? This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

USD/CAD Could see significant upward movement, particularly in a risk-off market.As the Fed and BoC policies diverge, with the Fed potentially being less dovish than the BoC, the USD/CAD pair is likely to benefit. Investors might not currently be pricing in this divergence fully, providing scope for a significant rise in USD/CAD, especially above the

Comments from Masato Kanda: Closely monitoring market’s movement with high vigilanceAlways prepared to respondDon’t have specific levels in mindBelieve that majority view yen weakness as speculativeRecent yen moves are rapidIt is certain that current moves are one-sided USD/JPY quickly lower on this, though the comment about specific levels sounds to me like a hint that

Prior was -2547KGasoline stocks +2654K vs -1024K expectedRefinery utilization -1.3% vs +0.1% expectedDistillates -377K vs -1050K expectedProduction unchanged at 13.2 mbpd These numbers are bearish. API inventory numbers from late yesterday: Crude +914KGasoline +3843KDistillates -1178K This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

Eyes are on Japan at the moment with USD/JPY at the highest since 1990. They could intervene at any time but if they wait too long, then look for the market to push higher. They are unlikely to get any help from the USD side of the equation with no major data releases today and

Prior was +2.4% The decline reflects lower sales in the motor vehicle and motor vehicle parts and accessories subsector, according to Statistics Canada. It’s a big drop but comes after a jump in April so it’s not a surprise. This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

Weighted CPI YY: 4.0% vs 3.8% expectedCPI SA YY: 4.1% vs 3.8% priorCPI SA MM: 0.2% vs 0.2% priorCPI Annualized trimmed mean YY: 4.4% vs 4.4% prior This article was written by Arno V Venter at www.forexlive.com.

The difference this time around is that the pace of the run higher is one that is less surging and speculative, one might argue. But dip buyers are certainly telling Japanese officials that they are still not deterred. There’s going to be plenty of watchful eyes here to see if Tokyo will want to step

Eurostoxx +0.5%Germany DAX +0.8%France CAC 40 +0.4%UK FTSE +0.4%Spain IBEX +0.3%Italy FTSE MIB +0.2% It’s tough to get a read on things on European indices this week. The Monday gains were largely erased yesterday but are now being restored in the early stages of trading today. That reflects a rather back and forth mood, with

Reserve Bank of Australia Assistant Gov Kent: Range of measures shows monetary policy is restrictive.RBA’s Kent: Policy contributing to slower growth of demand, lower inflation.RBA’s Kent: Recent data reinforced need to be vigilant to upside inflation risks.RBA’s Kent: Hence, not ruling anything in or out for interest rates.RBA’s Kent: Cash rate is above our range

Weak economy threatens treasury forecastsNZ economist McLeish sees recent data indicating economic weaknessNZ treasury considers additional spending and revenue solutions This article was written by Arno V Venter at www.forexlive.com.

Prior +0.9%Market index 212.0 vs 210.4 priorPurchase index 147.8 v 146.0 priorRefinance index 552.4 vs 552.7 prior30-year mortgage rate 6.93% vs 6.94% prior Mortgage applications were a touch higher in the past week, with a rise in purchase activity helping to offset a marginal decline in refinancing activity. Overall, housing activity remains rather tepid at

Easy come, easy go. European indices opened higher but have pared gains on the day with the CAC 40 index in particular now marked down by 0.6%. The nerves are still flowing in the equities space and more so for Europe with the French elections coming up. As for US futures, we are also seeing

There are two ways for a company to improve profitability — raise prices and lower costs. Those both boost stock prices but have very different macro implications. Shares of FedEx are up 8.7% in after-market trading following earnings. The jump would get shares back close to the April highs. Highlights: Sees 2025 capex of $5.2B

Prior -20.9; revised to -21.0 German consumer sentiment dips in July, ending a streak of four consecutive rises. GfK notes that “the interruption of the recent upward trend shows that the road out of the sluggish consumption will be difficult and there can always be setbacks”. This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

Fundamental Overview The USD continues to be backed by good economic data as we have also seen recently from the US PMIs last Friday and the US Consumer Confidence report yesterday. Although such data keeps the interest rates expectations stable around two cuts by the end of the year, it also supports the risk sentiment

Inflation is slowly approaching the 2% target, allowing the European Central Bank to cut interest rates by 25 basis points and change rhetoric with room for further easing. This might seem like a positive sign for markets, but French and German 10-year bond yields remain near 2010 levels when the bloc faced a debt crisis.

FX: The star performer in the session has been the AUD. The currency saw a jolt higher following hotter-than-expected CPI data with the weighted CPI YY measure printing at 4.0% (highest since Nov 2023) and the CPI YY measure coming in at 4.1%. Market probability for an RBA rate hike has increased as a result

Indicators suggest valuations and positioning are not at stretched levels.EURUSD valuations are far from having overshot in the move lower.Reinforces conviction for appealing risk-reward to hold short EUR exposure.Elections compound the scope for downside.Positions not near extreme levels, indicating scope for further shorts to be added ahead of the event.Recommends EURJPY shorts Looking at EURUSD

Fundamental Overview The USD continues to be backed by good economic data as we have also seen recently from the US PMIs last Friday and the US Consumer Confidence report yesterday. Although such data keeps the interest rates expectations stable around two cuts by the end of the year, it also supports the risk sentiment

Fundamental Overview Copper remains under pressure, albeit the bearish momentum appears to be slowing. Last week, the FT reported that stockpiles in Shanghai warehouses hit their highest level since 2020 amid weak demand due to China’s real estate sector downturn. Given the high prices reached in the previous month, manufacturers refrained from buying since they

Prior 8 The UK retail sales balance dips back into negative territory in June, with expected retail sales for July also seen weakening further. The reading for the latter is down to -9 as opposed to -4 for June last month. This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

The aussie is the main mover so far today, pushing higher after hotter May inflation numbers here. That is reigniting talks of an RBA rate cut heading into August, with the Q2 CPI report at the end of July going to be a big one to watch. Besides that, major currencies are mostly little changed

ECB could gradually reduce interest rates if outlook holdsCurrent macroeconomic picture is consistent with normalisation of monetary stanceWe have reasons to believe that sticky services inflation is not abnormal in any way Expanding on the headline remark, Panetta also advised his colleagues to stay the course as deviating from that would mean veering away from

The selling of the dollar should be “mild” this month-end, with their model indicating the strongest sell signal to be against the euro. Meanwhile, the firm also notes that their corporate flow model suggests that the euro currency to be in demand this month-end. Just keep this in your back pocket in case, as we

It’s all a psychological game now when it comes to USD/JPY. The pair is testing waters above the 160.00 mark again, with traders cautious about jumping the gun and incurring the wrath of Japanese officials. From a technical perspective, it’s clear skies for USD/JPY above 160.00 with the 1990 high merely seen at 160.40. Above

Prior 18.2 UBS notes that: “Ahead of elections in France and the US, domestic politics in those countries is the biggest concern. In Switzerland, economic growth is the primary concern. Survey participants expect the Swiss franc to appreciate further against the euro and US dollar.” This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

Results via oilprice.com on X: This article was written by Arno V Venter at www.forexlive.com.

AUDUSD has jumped higher after the hotter than expected CPI numbers out of Australia this morning. The odds of a hold for the August meeting has fallen to 70% from the prior of 89%, while the odds of a hike for the September meeting has climbed to 35% from the prior of 12%(ish). Will be

Australia weighted CPI YY 4.0% vs 3.8% expectedAUDUSD pops higher after hotter than expected CPI data In their latest policy decision here, the RBA continues to put out the narrative that they are not ruling anything in or out. It speaks to the uncertainty on the inflation outlook, in which they also argued that the

Aussie CPI data for May is due at 02:30 BST. For this week’s CPI release, some participants are expecting the MM measure of headline inflation to show a flat reading for prices, thanks to seasonal discounts on holiday expenses and clothing, plus a dip in retail gasoline prices. However, the YY measure is expected to

Fundamental Overview The USD continues to be backed by good economic data as we have also seen recently from the US PMIs last Friday and the US Consumer Confidence report yesterday. Such data keeps the interest rates expectations stable around two cuts by the end of the year and supports the risk sentiment amid a

Prior 90 French consumer sentiment eased a little further in June, remaining below its long-term average of 100. Of note, the future standard of living saw a sharp decline amid a rise in the opinion of future inflation. The good news at least is that unemployment fears have subsided a bit after the jump in

The dollar is up a little as we get into European morning trade, with a lack of any real catalysts. EUR/USD is now down nearly 0.3% to 1.0685 while USD/JPY is inching up to 159.90 currently. The greenback is keeping on firmer footing and I would argue that is in part helped by a continued

Australia composite leading index -0.01 vs -0.03 prior This article was written by Arno V Venter at www.forexlive.com.

Credit Agricole discusses the impact of the RBA’s hawkish hold, arguing it strengthens the case for being long on AUD/USD and AUD/NZD. This decision has reduced speculation about rate cuts and even led to some pricing in potential rate hikes. Meanwhile, NZ’s Chief Economist sounded less hawkish, supporting the long AUD/NZD trade. Key Points: RBA’s

There are just two to take note of on the day, as highlighted in bold. And they are both for EUR/USD, pinned on either side of the spot price at 1.0700 and 1.0750. That is likely to lock price action in the session ahead, with more expiries following that up at 1.0650, 1.0700, and 1.0750

Earlier in the session we saw the AUD jump higher on hotter-than-expected CPI data for May, which has increased the odds for a hike at the August and September meetings. Then we also had negative comments on the NZ economy from the NZ treasury which has sparked some downside pressure in the NZD. Positive catalyst

The USDCNY is approaching the previous max pain level around 7.37 where the PBoC intervened in 2023 so worth keeping that level marked up. The PBoC continuously adjusted the mid-point weaker in recent sessions with yesterday seeing the weakest setting since Nov 2023. This article was written by Arno V Venter at www.forexlive.com.

I wrote earlier that the knives were likely to come out for Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau after he lost a by-election in a Liberal stronghold. However it sounds like he will have to be dragged out kicking and screaming, or via an election that’s not due until October 20, 2025. He released a statement

There is a guy on Nvidia right now talking about NVDA at a $6 trillion valuation, which isn’t the kind of thing you see at a bottom… In any case, shares are up nearly 7% today in a huge rebound that nearly erases yesterday’s drop. The bounce came from just above the 38.2% retracement of

Commodities are mostly in the red across the board as we get closer to the Asia-Pac session. The easy blame for this today was the stronger dollar, but to be fair the commodity/USD inverse correlation has been hit and miss over the last few months with a few occasions showing a positive correlation. We also

Taking a look at today’s economic calendar, the main highlight during Asia-Pac is the May CPI data out of Australia due at 02:30 BST / 21:30 ET. Also heads up that we get RBA’s Kent on the wires (expected at 00:35 BST / 19:35 ET). Will be interesting to hear if he has anything to

Russian Defense Minister Belousov warns US Defense Secretary Austin of dangers of escalation of continued US arms supplies to Ukraine, Russian Ministry says. This article was written by Arno V Venter at www.forexlive.com.

Canada May CPI 2.9% versus 2.6% expectedUS June consumer confidence 100.4 vs 100.0 expectedRichmond Fed June manufacturing index -10 vs. 2 expectedFed’s Cook: Current policy is well positioned, attentive to inflation expectationsShares of Fedex jump as 2025 guidance lowers capex, highlights cost savingsShares of Nvidia surge nearly 7% to lead tech reboundUS sells 2-year Treasury

Earlier today Bowman said we’re not yet at the point where it is appropriate to cut rates. This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

As we head closer to the Asia-Pac session, let’s take a look at where the FX majors are trading. Sterling is in the top spot while the EUR has been the underperformer. Can’t really put a good enough reason on the price ation yesterday. CAD saw initial upside on a hot CPI print and then

The Nasdaq struggled yesterday but bounced back today in a rebound from three days of selling. What next? The JPM desk offered up this. The bull case: Economic data inflects higherPositive July seasonals;Earnings deliver on expectationsBond yields peakPositioning tailwinds The bear case: Macro sentiment deterioratesTactical pullback arrivesWeaker guidanceAI theme abandonmentExogenous shocks h/t @MrMBrown This article

Right on the screws. Prior was 4.917% Yields were above 5% in April and parts of May but have come down as Fed cuts creep closer and inflation cools. T-bills still yield 5.37% so you have the choice to roll or lock in for two years. We get 5s tomorrow and 7s on Thursday. This

The two sides are putting out a joint statement, remarking that: Japan, South Korea share serious concerns on respective currency depreciationWill continue to take appropriate steps to respond to declining value of currency Suzuki then adds that it would be “desirable for FX to move stably, reflecting fundamentals”. All in all, nothing that we haven’t

Introduction to Today’s Market Dynamics Today’s trading session exhibits a colorful mosaic of gains and losses across various sectors, revealing subtle yet significant market movements. A deep dive into today’s stock market heatmap provides us with a clearer picture of which sectors are thriving and which are just surviving. 🌐 Technology Sector In the technology

Prior was -12.1Employment +1.8 vs +3.9 priorOverall outlook -4.1 vs -12.1 priorCompany outlook -1.3 vs -5.7 priorInput prices +20.7 vs +24.7 priorSelling prices +3.8 vs +3.9 prior There’s a clear trend in services inflation here. The amount of comments in the report about politics are worrisome. The reality is that the White House has zero

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At some point it will be appropriate to cutTiming of policy adjustments wil ldepend on data and outlookRise in inflation expectations would imply keeping policy restrictive for longerInflation has slowed, labor market tightness has easedExpect disinflation trend to continueExpect 12 month inflation moving sideways for the rest of the year, slowing more sharply next yearExpect

Federal Reserve Governor Lisa Cook spoke today and highlighted that unemployment is at a low level. Objectively, it’s true: But I want to highlight the extreme right-hand side of the chart because of the Sahm rule. it’s named after economist Claudia Sahm and is an economic indicator aiming to identify a recession sooner. The rule

If you don’t know Pool Corporation, it’s one of the all-time great compounders. It specializes in swimming pool supplies, equipment and products, locking down the entire industry. It has been one of the top-20 US stocks for decades as it rode the wave of housing investment and a demographic shift to warmer climates. Today, however,

They’re going to hold too long. It was written in stone they would hold too long after they blew it on inflation. Initial claims still coming in lowWe see cautious optimism in the business communityAt this point, the risks to inflation and employment are in better balanceFrom contacts, concerns now are the ones we had

Jim Cramer was on CNBC this morning talking macro. He highlighted population growth as a critical factory restraining wages and taming inflation. He cited 10 million people entering the country since the pandemic. That doesn’t match up with what the Census Bureau is saying as the official number for the year ending in July 2023

USDCNY has seen immediate upside following the weakest mid-point setting by the PBoC since November last year. We still have some ways to go before we get to 7.36-37 (which was the previous line in the sand where the PBoC stepped in to curb CNY weakness), but worth keeping an eye on it. This article

Fundamental Overview The USD last week finished slightly positive but overall, it was a pretty flat week. We got some great US PMIs on Friday which showed growth without inflationary pressures. In fact, despite the strong PMIs the market pricing for interest rates remained unchanged. That should be generally positive for risk sentiment going forward.

National Activity Index 0.18 vs. -0.23 prior (revised to -0.26). This is very volatile data and not a market moving release. The Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) is a monthly index designed to gauge overall economic activity and related inflationary pressure. The Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) increased to +0.18 in May from

Fundamental Overview Gold got hit hard last Friday by the strong US PMIs as real yields rose following the data release. The report though showed that inflationary pressures continue to abate and that’s also the reason why the market’s expectation for interest rates remained unchanged. The overreaction from the US PMIs is getting slowly erased

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Fundamental Overview We got a bit of a pullback in the S&P 500 in the last few days. If we were to try to find a catalyst, the second miss in a row in the US Jobless Claims last Thursday could be it, but the data was still pretty good and not worrying in the

There is just one to take note of on the day, as highlighted in bold. That being for EUR/USD at the 1.0700 level. The expiries should keep a floor on price action in the session ahead, if anything else. But the spot price is slightly far away with a more muted mood overall ahead of

Fundamental Overview The USD last week finished slightly positive but overall, it was a pretty flat week. We got some great US PMIs on Friday which showed growth without inflationary pressures. In fact, despite the strong PMIs the market pricing for interest rates remained unchanged. That should be generally positive for risk sentiment going forward.

Manufacturing index -10 vs. 2 expected and 0 prior.Services index -11 vs. 3 prior.Manufacturing shipments index -9 vs. 13 prior. Fifth District manufacturing activity slowed in June, according to the most recent survey from the Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond. The composite manufacturing index decreased from 0 in May to −10 in June. Of its

Prior was 102.0 (revised to 101.3)Expectations 73.0 vs 74.9 priorPresent situation 141.5 vs 140.8 prior14.1% of consumers said jobs were “hard to get,” down from 14.3%.12 month inflation expectations 5.3% vs 5.4% prior “Confidence pulled back in June but remained within the same narrow range that’s held throughout the past two years, as strength in

The Bank of Canada’s job just got a little tougher. Yesterday, Bank of Canada Governor Tiff Macklem spoke about wages and productivity. He dismissed stickier wage data: “Depending on the measure you look at, wage growth peaked at between 4½% and 6%. This was roughly twice the pre-pandemic average of 2% to 3%. With inflation

Today is likely the beginning of the end of Justin Trudeau’s hold on Canadian federal politics. Polls have been bad for the Prime Minister for many months but they’ve deteriorated further lately and yesterday he suffered a crushing defeat. A special election was held in his Liberal Party’s stronghold yesterday after the retirement of a

Prior +0.6% On an annual basis, Spain’s economic output expanded by 2.5%. The figures just reinforce the stronger performance by the periphery nations especially in Q1. This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

Fed’s Bowman: not yet at the point where it is appropriate to cut ratesMajor currencies not showing much appetite on the dayFrance on the verge of a political standstill?Japan finance minister says will closely monitor currency movementsEuropean equities on the backfoot again after the gains yesterdaySpain Q1 final GDP +0.8% vs +0.7% q/q prelimWhat are

There is some back-and-fill ongoing as the market in Europe waits for what is coming next. Closing changes: Stoxx 600 -0.3%German DAX -0.9%UK FTSE 100 -0.4%French CAC -0.7%Italy MIB -0.4%Spain IBEX -0.65% This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

Major currencies are not doing much to start the day but I would expect the ranges to broaden in European trading. The overall risk mood remains more mixed, with tech shares sinking in Wall Street yesterday. The Dow ended higher by 0.7% but the Nasdaq slumped by 1.1%, led by a further drop in Nvidia.

The first round of voting will begin this weekend on 30 June, before the second round on 7 July. There’s plenty of buzz surrounding the French election this time around. So, let’s take a look at what are the possible outcomes and how that might impact markets. It all started with the European parliamentary election

Major dollar pairs are still keeping within 0.1% change on the day and that sums up a rather lackluster start to European trading. The Canadian CPI report later will at least give loonie traders something to work with. Otherwise, broader markets have to look towards the overall risk mood and perhaps the Treasury auction for

We’ve seen this before. The market probes the Japanese Ministry of Finance and its willingness to intervene, gets close to the line in the sand and then retreats. It then regroups and tries again. That has been the playbook through out the past year and there is no sign the market is changing gears. USD/JPY

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Today there’s no notable event in the European session and all the action will take place in the American session as we get to see the Canadian CPI data and the US Consumer Confidence report. 12:30 GMT/08:30 ET – Canada May CPI The Canadian CPI Y/Y is expected at 2.6% vs. 2.7% prior, while the

As we near the Asia close, the JPY (white) is leading the majors while the CHF (green) and AUD (blue) isn’t too far behind. At the bottom of the barrel is the USD (yellow) and the NZD (purple). We have a mixture of safe havens and high betas at the top and the bottom of

Not yet at the point where it is appropriate to cut rates.Should data show inflation moving sustainably to 2%, it will eventually become appropriate to gradually lower policy rate.Baseline outlook continues to be inflation will return to 2% with policy rate held steady for some time.Willing to raise the target rate at a future meeting

I’ll quote an old line from Dennis Gartman: Should the General falter, the rest will falter too, for when the field General is shot and killed, the men below him scatter chaotically. Nvidia has undoubtedly been the ‘general’ of the bull market in the post-GPT era but it’s now down 16% in three trading days.

Prior month 2.7%CPI m/m +0.6% vs +0.3% estimate Core measures CPI Bank of Canada core y/y 1.8% vs 1.6% priorCPI Bank of Canada core m/m 0.6% versus 0.2% priorCore CPI m/m SA +0.3% vs 0.0% prior Trim 2.9% versus 2.8% prior Median 2.8% versus 2.6% prior Common 2.4% versus 2.6% prior Bank of Canada July

Recent inflation readings more encouraging but hard to now if on track to price stabilityWe have made a lot of progress on inflation, still work to doNearer to a point where benign outcome on labor market could be less likelyMust fully restore price stability without a painful disruption to the labor marketIf inflation falls more

Japan Services PPI 2.5 vs 2.8 prior This article was written by Arno V Venter at www.forexlive.com.

BOC Governor Tiff Macklem sounded a bit more dovish earlier today and the market is pricing in a 71% chance of a July 24 rate cut. We’ll be looking for more hints in the Q&A. This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

The CAC 40 has caught a modest bounce after meeting its 50.0 Fib retracement level, with the double-top pattern also completing its reversal in a fall under 7,650 two weeks ago. The bounce in the past week is a decent one but the index is still down by over 4% in June currently. Here’s a

Following yesterday’s move lower, US equity futures have attempted to put in a marginal bounce of their lows from yesterday. Traders will have to wait for the US cash open with eyes on Nvidia to see whether that will be sustained. Forex has traded fairly mixed today with the JPY leading while the USD the

BOC’s Macklem: Increasingly we look to be on our way to hitting inflation targetBOC’s Macklem Q&A: You can see some weakening of the labor force under the hoodFed’s Daly: Bumpiness of inflation data so far this year has not inspired confidenceFed’s Daly: Must be thoughtful about not loosening too early or holding too longMacron’s poll

BofA expects the Fed to start cutting in December: Persistent Inflation: Inflation is expected to remain above the Fed’s 2% target until 2026 due to strong labor demand and increased consumer spending.Gradual Rate Cuts: The Fed is expected to start easing rates in December 2024, with cuts continuing quarterly to a terminal rate of 3.5-3.75%

Both the EUR and European Equities saw decent outperformance against their US counterparts yesterday. The OAT/Bund spreads showed some calm yesterday with the spread falling 4 basis points from 0.76% to 0.72%. With the French snap elections coming up on Sunday, markets have already priced in a fair bit of risk premium on the fiscal

China Premier Li: We are confident and capable to achieve the full year growth target of around 5%.China Premier Li: Electric vehicles, lithium batteries produced by Chinese companies have not only met domestic demand but enriched global supply.China Premier Li: We should build a more fair non-discriminatory business environment for tech innovation.China Premier Li: We

A Bloomberg report said the Fed is floating a weaker version of the bank-capital overhaul. Jamie always wins. This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

Monday’s Asia-Pac started out very slow and boring as usual, but seems like some volatility has been reintroduced across major asset classes. Looking at FX, the EUR had a decent day, with the GBP in second place. The three safe havens (USD, CHF and JPY) were the clear laggards, which was interesting despite the risk

Japan to revise Jan-Mar GDP to reflect corrected data on construction orders from Land MinistryJapan revised Jan-Mar GDP to be released at 2350 GMT on June 30, 8:50 a.m. Japan time on July 1 This article was written by Arno V Venter at www.forexlive.com.

PBoC injects 300 billion Yuan via 7-day reverse reposSets 7-day reverse repo rate at 1.8% vs 1.8% prior This article was written by Arno V Venter at www.forexlive.com.

Australia consumer sentiment 1.7 vs -0.3 prior This article was written by Arno V Venter at www.forexlive.com.

Coincident index 115.2 vs 114.2 prior The assessment of the coincident index remains unchanged, defined as “signaling a possible turning point”. This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

German DAX futures -0.7%UK FTSE futures -0.1% Even though tech shares were the drag in Wall Street in the day before, European equities are seeing a pullback to yesterday’s gains. As a reminder, France remains on the brink ahead of the first round of elections this weekend. That remains a concern with eyes being on

Below is an extract from Eamonn’s handy posts regarding the midpoint setting, and here is some further explanation of what it is and how it works. The People’s Bank of China set the onshore yuan (CNY) reference rate for the trading session ahead. USD/CNY is the onshore yuan. Its permitted to trade plus or minus

Thankfully today’s economic calendar is a bit more exciting than yesterday. Main highlights will be Canadian CPI for May at 13:30 BST / 08:30 ET, followed by US Consumer Confidence at 15:00 BST/10:00 ET. We also have some Fed speak coming up with Bowman and Cook on the wires. Apart from that, worth keeping in

Once again, the ranges so far today is leaving a lot to be desired. After the rise yesterday, EUR/USD is stuck within a less than 10 pips range and that exemplifies the overall market mood. There’s not much to point to when it comes to the slight drop in the dollar yesterday. But it perhaps

Heading into the Trump/Biden debate this week, Goldman was out with a useful note on their expectations for a Republican victory. USD: Upside bias under a Republican victory Tariff Policies: Trump has proposed several potential tariff policies, including a 10% across-the-board tariff on imports and a 60% tariff on imports from China. These tariffs are

The poster child for AI took a bit of a day off it seems, with Nvidia down 6.7%. Catalysts are very thin for some of the moves we are seeing, but since it’s month-end and quarter-end I will take the easy way out and blame that for now. One would assume that some chunky rebalancing

We’ve seen inflationary pressures ease and we think they will continue to easeWe need to have conversations on improving our productivityWe’ve had exceptionally-strong supply shocksWe have too many small differences between provinces creating barriersThe economy has been changing rapidlyMy intention today was to highlight the things we’re looking at in the labor marketWe are looking

Rationale for long NOK: The Norges Bank is one of the last central banks likely to cut rates. The bank’s decision to keep rates on hold, coupled with elevated inflation expectations and wage growth, suggests a hawkish stance. The NOK is considered extremely undervalued, and the Norges Bank’s preference for a higher exchange rate to

Biden administration investigating China Telecom, China Mobile, and China UnicomThe probe is focused on potential US national security risks from their US cloud business and internet infrastructure This article was written by Arno V Venter at www.forexlive.com.

Japan Chief Cabinet Secretary Hayashi: Won’t comment on forex levels.Japan Chief Cabinet Secretary Hayashi: Important for currencies to move in stable manner reflecting fundamentals.Japan Chief Cabinet Secretary Hayashi: Excessive FX volatility undesirable.Japan Chief Cabinet Secretary Hayashi: Closely watching FX moves, will respond appropriately to excessive volatility. This article was written by Arno V Venter at

If you want a fantastic rundown of what the USD/CNY midpoint is look no further than the daily updates from Eamonn here. This article was written by Arno V Venter at www.forexlive.com.

US Presidential hopeful Donald Trump is in talks to speak at Bitcoin 2024 in Nashville at the end of July, according to Axios. Margins are tight in the election and Trump is trying to court every vote he can. “I will end Joe Biden’s war on crypto,” Trump said in Wisconsin. “We will ensure that

Everything considered, the market is holding up better than I thought it would. Nvidia is now down 15% from its all time high of 140.76 as it falls 5.5% today to 119.66. That high was only two trading days ago on Thursday so it’s been a sharp turnaround that started with a textbook bearish engulfing

Prior was -19.4 Details: General business activity -15.1 vs -19.4 priorCompany outlook -6.9 vs -13.4 priorPrices paid +21.5 vs +20.4 priorNew orders -1.3 vs -2.2 priorShipments +2.8 vs -3.0 priorEmployment -2.9 vs -5.3 prior The pricing numbers all ticked higher. Comments in the report are much more negative than the report numbers. Food manufacturing We

Canadian Finance Minister Freeland announced a 30-day consultation on potential tariffs on Chinese-made EVs. They will look at restricting what kinds of vehicles are eligible for Canada’s consumer EV incentives. Canada let so many industries go and told them to ‘learn to code’ but now in a ‘climate emergency’ this is the one they decide

Prior 89.3Current conditions 88.3 vs 88.5 expectedPrior 88.3Expectations 89.0 vs 91.0 expectedPrior 90.4; revised to 90.3 Slight delay in the release by the source. The German business climate declined in June, missing on estimates in all three readings. That’s not a good sign on how economic sentiment is holding up towards the end of Q2.

Belgian business sentiment is a leading indicator but this comes after the German Ifo reading earlier today. It fell to 88.6 from 89.3. This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

Tonight’s tracking poll from Le Figaro paints a worsening picture for Emmanuel Macron’s centralist alliance as voters split left and right. The far right now has 36% of the vote and the left popular front is up to 29.5%. Macron’s camp has lost 1.5% since the pol on Thursday and sits at 20.5%. French stocks

Fundamental Overview Despite good data on the inflation and growth front, Bitcoin couldn’t find a sustained bid amid the generally positive risk sentiment. There was no real catalyst for the drop other than a key technical support getting breached. We got a quick drop into a key support zone today which will likely attract more

Fundamental Overview The USD last week finished slightly positive but overall, it was a pretty flat week. We got some great US PMIs on Friday which showed growth without inflationary pressures. In fact, despite the strong PMIs the market pricing for interest rates remained unchanged. That should be positive for risk sentiment for the time

We continue to think we don’t need a large rise in the jobless rate to get inflation to targetThere is room to grow and add jobs even as inflation moves closer to 2%Signs of financial stress are particularly evident among rentersWe can’t rule out bumps but increasingly we look to be on our way to

Rate cuts by year-end Fed: 47.5 bps (90% chance of no change at the next meeting) ECB: 47.7 bps (68% chance of no change at the next meeting) BoE: 47.6 bps (50% chance of rate cut at the next meeting) BoC: 54.4 bps (71% chance of rate cut at the next meeting) RBA: 6.7 bps

The US dollar is under broad pressure as New York ramps up this week. It’s not clear what is behind the dollar softness. The bond market is quiet and stocks are modestly bid. Fundamental news has been minimal and the comments from Goolsbee weren’t particularly dovish (at least by his standards). Fed pricing is steady

Earlier today I had a great chat with Dale Pinkert from Forex Analytix Highlights: Early look? What Bitcoin and cyclicals are telling us about the economy. Canadian Dollar Outlook: Why I’m bearish and worried about the long term AI and Technology: What will be the scale of job losses from AI and how will central

Highlights what ‘seems to be a cooling of consumer spending’It’s worth wondering where we are on our restrictiveness scaleIf we get more ‘months’ like the last one on inflation, coupled with more weakening data then you have to start questioning where we should be on ratesOptimistic we’ll see improvement in inflation dataHopeful that Fed will

German DAX futures flatUK FTSE futures -0.1% This mirrors the mood in US futures, which are also keeping flattish as we look to the session ahead. For European stocks, just be wary that political woes might factor in again with the first round of the French election coming up on 30 June. This article was

European equities continue to recover some of the political selling as we near voting this weekend in the first round of the French election. Stoxx 600 +0.8%German DAX +1.0%UK FTSE 100 +0.7%French CAC +1.1%Italy MIB +1.6%Spain IBEX +1.3% This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

Nvidia is trading down 2.3% ahead of the open, trading at $123.67. That comes after a reversal lower from an all-time high on Thursday and a further decline on Friday despite a flat day for stocks overall. Where is it headed? If we take the last leg of the move, a minimum target would be

Fundamental Overview The USD last week finished slightly positive but overall, it was a pretty flat week. We got some great US PMIs on Friday which showed growth without inflationary pressures. In fact, despite the strong PMIs the market pricing for interest rates remained unchanged. That should be positive for risk sentiment for the time

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The report should give us a better understanding of what the board members were thinking. In June, the BoJ decided to keep its short-term policy rate steady at 0.0%-0.1%, which was expected. But they threw a curveball by not starting to taper their bond purchases as some had anticipated. Instead, they decided to stick with

Introduction: Mapping the Day’s Market Movements Today’s stock market presents a varied landscape of gains and losses across different sectors. A closer look at the market’s heatmap reveals significant trends that could shape investment strategies in the short term. Sector Overview Semiconductors: The semiconductor sector is notably struggling, with NVDA taking a sharp decline of

On Monday, the economic calendar is relatively light. In Canada, BoC Governor Macklem will deliver a speech titled “Workers, Jobs, Growth, and Inflation—Today and Tomorrow” at the Winnipeg Chamber of Commerce. Tuesday brings inflation data for Canada, as well as the CB consumer confidence and the Richmond manufacturing index for the U.S. On Wednesday, attention

US stocks are modestly lower in the early going with tech lagging on a 2.8% decline in Nvidia. S&P 500 down 0.1%Nasdaq down 0.4%DJIA +0.2%Russell 2000 +0.1% This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

There are a couple to take note of on the day, as highlighted in bold. The first ones are for EUR/USD at 1.0690-00 and that is likely to keep price action more contained in the session ahead. There isn’t much else to work with to start the week, so that should see a more muted

Prior -33 Manufacturing orders in the UK fell again in June but at a slower pace as compared to May at least. The balance for manufacturing output expectations also increased to 13 from 7 previously, marking the highest since October last year. CBI notes that the readings are “encouraging” and that the recovery should “broaden

Headlines: The nerves are starting to show again in USD/JPYWhat are the main events for today?Weekly update on interest rates expectationsGermany June Ifo business climate index 88.6 vs 89.7 expectedUK June CBI trends total orders -18 vs -25 expectedSNB total sight deposits w.e. 21 June CHF 451.8 bn vs CHF 453.5 bn priorChina calls for

Bitcoin is trading at the lowest since mid-May after a dump in Europe that’s only been held up by bids in the $60,600 zone. First of all, bitcoin is very technical and the inability to break $72,000 and instead forming a top is worrisome. If we break $60,000 and possibly $57,000, that would leave an

Equity futures are seeing some pressure across the board this morning, but catalysts for the move is very thin right now. Worth noting it’s bound to be a messy week with month-end flows in the mix, as well as market’s attention shifting towards political risks with the French election coming up on Sunday as well

Chicago Fed President Austin Goolsbee will speak on CNBC at the bottom of the hour. In his latest comments, he called the May CPI number ‘excellent’ and that you can’t help but be optimistic if you look at the long view. This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

Fundamental Overview The USD last week finished slightly positive but overall, it was a pretty flat week. We got some great US PMIs on Friday which showed growth without inflationary pressures. In fact, despite the strong PMIs the market pricing for interest rates remained unchanged. That should be positive for risk sentiment for the time

If you want a fantastic rundown of what the USD/CNY midpoint is look no further than the daily updates from Eamonn here. This article was written by Arno V Venter at www.forexlive.com.

For some context, the EU is set to impose provisional tariffs of up to 38.1% on imported Chinese-made EVs starting from 4 July. This has caused quite a stir between the bloc and China in the past week or so. But over the weekend, there was a call between EU commissioner Dombrovskis and China’s commerce

It may be a quieter start to the new week but this is one to watch where the action can pick up quickly. After having intervened in late April, Japanese officials are being put into the spotlight again now. Are they going to step in at the 160.00 mark once more? Or are they going

Domestic sight deposits CHF 443.4 bn vs CHF 445.3 bn prior Swiss sight deposits fell again in the past week but the SNB messaging here kind of overrides the data, at least for now. We’ll see how the trend develops further in the weeks ahead to have a better idea of what might be happening

This is the sort of nervous price action that we also saw previously when getting close to intervention territory. The pair just took a quick dip from 159.60 to 158.75 before holding around 159.15-30 levels again. In the run up to the last intervention, there were also jerky price movements such as this during the

It’s still early in the session, but so far the USD and CHF is leading the majors on the upside, while the NZD and JPY has been the weakest. Catalysts remain thin for now and liquidity thin so worth keeping that in mind. This article was written by Arno V Venter at www.forexlive.com.

Heading into the UK general election, risk premiums seems on the low side. Even though 1-month risk reversals for GBPUSD has pushed lower, the recent fall has more to do with political risk in France as well as the BoE’s policy decision. It would seem that markets are surprisingly calm with pricing in risk for

• NZ credit card spending YY 0.0% vs -0.6% prior This article was written by Arno V Venter at www.forexlive.com.

Today, there’s no real market moving event on the agenda. In the European session we will hear from Fed’s Waller and get to see the latest German IFO data. In the American session, there will be just the Dallas Fed Manufacturing Index, and ECB’s Schnabel and Fed’s Daly speaking. The price action should be influenced

Eurostoxx +0.1%Germany DAX +0.1%France CAC 40 +0.2%UK FTSE -0.1%Spain IBEX +0.4%Italy FTSE MIB +0.4% French stocks bounced back a little last week but will stay under scrutiny in the week ahead, with the first round of the election coming up on 30 June. As for the overall risk mood, it is mostly steadier with US

It’s been a quiet start to the week for Asia-Pac, with very little market-moving news and very little price action to get excited about. Equities: futures started the week on the softer side with marginal downside seen in equity futures (mostly across the board), but have since regained some composure albeit we are still down

I know we are all tired of intervention headlines, but with USDJPY approaching 160 again we need to keep it in mind as a volatility risk. The recent intervention kicked in around the 160.20 level, so traders will be eyeing this closely in the sessions ahead. As always, there is no guarantee that we see

Things are moving slower to start the new week, with major currencies keeping in tight ranges. But if anything else, do keep an eye out for USD/JPY as it continues to track towards the 160.00 threshold again. That might prompt Japanese authorities to intervene to lock down further yen depreciation, at least for now. After

Justice Department has until July 7th to decide whether to go ahead with prosecutionJustice department’s findings is that the company breached a 2021 agreement that shielded it from fraud chargesRelatives of the victims are urging the prosecutors to seek for a $25 billion fine as well as criminal prosecution Source: reuters This article was written

It’s a very quiet start to the week on the economic data side. • BoJ’s summary of opinions due at 00:50 BST / 19:50 ET. • German Ifo data due at 09:00 BST / 04:00 ET. • US Dallas Fed Mfg Index due at 15:30 BST / 10:30 ET. However, after the recent flurry of

Japan FinMin Suzuki: Won’t comment on forex levels.Japan FinMin Suzuki: Desirable for currencies to move in stable manner reflecting fundamentals.Japan FinMin Suzuki: Excessive FX change undesirable.Japan FinMin Suzuki: Want to respond appropriately as needed.Japan FinMin Suzuki says no comment, when asked if current FX moves are excessive. This article was written by Arno V Venter

South Korea, US, Japan strongly condemn deepening North Korea, Russia military cooperation – South Korea Foreign Ministry.South Korea, US, Japan say Putin’s visit to North Korea triggered grave concern – South Korea Foreign MinistrySouth Korea, U.S., Japan say they will further strengthen security cooperation to counter threats by North Korea – South Korea Foreign Ministry.

PBoC injects 50 billion Yuan via 7-day reverse reposSets 7-day reverse repo rate at 1.8% vs 1.8% prior This article was written by Arno V Venter at www.forexlive.com.

The USDCNH has continued to grind higher as capital outflows from China ramps up. According to Reuters, foreigners has pulled $4.54B this month via the stock connect scheme. We are approaching pervious ‘max pain’ levels for the PBoC between 7.36-37 where we saw previous attempts to curb Yuan losses. For now the move higher has

Despite a solid US Flash PMI print on Friday, money market bets for the Fed wasn’t much changed. Expectations into the data was for around 47 basis points of easing by year-end, and expectations stayed very close to that despite the beat. It’s important to keep in mind that there has been a disconnect between

Won’t comment on daily forex levels.Will take appropriate steps if there is excessive forex move.No impact at all from U.S. report on forex monitoring.US govt suggests there is no problem in Japan’s forex intervention.Don’t have specific forex level in mind.Will respond to rapid forex moves by speculators.Won’t comment if recent forex moves are excessive This

BOJ June meeting summary of opinions: One member said BOJ expected to raise interest rate if underlying inflation rises as projected.BOJ June summary: One member said given chance of upside risk to inflation, must consider further adjustment to degree of monetary easingBOJ June summary: One member said must raise interest rate in timely fashion without

Below is an extract from Eamonn’s handy posts regarding the midpoint setting, and here is some further explanation of what it is and how it works. The People’s Bank of China set the onshore yuan (CNY) reference rate for the trading session ahead. USD/CNY is the onshore yuan. Its permitted to trade plus or minus

• NZ exports May 2024 7.16B vs 6.42B • NZ imports May 2024 6.95B vs 6.32B • NZ trade balance May 2024 204M vs 91.0M This article was written by Arno V Venter at www.forexlive.com.

Welcome to another trading week. Hope you all had a great weekend and is ready to get the show on the road. As usual, early Asia-Pac trading means thinner liquidity and lower volumes so always keep that in mind. For now, exchange rates for major FX pairs are as follows: EUR/USD 1.0688USD/JPY 159.79GBP/USD 1.2631USD/CHF 0.8934USD/CAD