Signal Scandal Rocks U.S. Intel – What Investors Should Watch as Trust in National Security Protocols Wavers Improper use of encrypted chats by top officials raises concerns over governance risk, internal dysfunction, and policy volatility. What Happened at the Senate Hearing Now A heated exchange during the Senate Intelligence Committee hearing revealed that senior Trump-era […]

Earlier today, I highlighted a Goldman Sachs note suggesting that market participants were expecting a 9% reciprocal tariff rate. Now, Deutsche Bank is out with a survey of its own list of 400 investors and they estimate 50% tariffs on China and a tariff of slightly below 10% on everyone else. However they also try

US and Russia agreed to measures for implementing agreement to ban strikes against energy facilities of Russia and Ukraine US will continue facilitating negotiations between both sides US and Ukraine agreed to develop measure for implementing agreement to ban strikes against energy facilities of Russia and Ukraine The momentum towards a ceasefire is slower than

Results of the sale just after the 1 pm ET deadline. Prior was 4.169% Bid to cover 2.66 vs 2.56 prior I thought we might see a 4-handle but the combo of the soft consumer confidence data today and worries about tariffs knocked it through the figure. If we get a tolerable tariff solution and

The cryptocurrency landscape stands at a potential inflection point following Donald Trump’s return to the White House. After years of regulatory uncertainty and mixed signals from Washington, the digital asset industry is witnessing what many analysts describe as a fundamental shift in the federal government’s approach to blockchain technology and cryptocurrencies. President Trump’s administration has

The stock market today is showcasing an impressive performance in the technology sector, with Meta and Apple leading the charge against a backdrop of varied sector responses. Investors are attentively watching as moderate swings in sentiment across industries provide new insights and opportunities for traders on a vibrant day on Wall Street. 📈 Technology Sector:

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Major European indices are closing up sharply in trading today. For Spain’s Ibex, it is closing up around 1.36% near 13504.31. That is a new high close going back to May 2008. Italy’s FTSE MIB is up around 1.11% and remains close to its highest low going back to 2007. The high price was reached

Intel Officials Under Fire Over Leaked Strike Plans – Senators Slam “Utterly Unprofessional” Breach of U.S. Military Deliberations A national reporter was included in a private Signal group chat discussing the timing of U.S. airstrikes — and officials today struggled to justify it under oath. What Happened In a blistering Senate Intelligence Committee session, lawmakers

Fundamental Overview It’s been a rough quarter for crude oil as the market got hit by a wave of negative news. We had it all ranging from higher supply expectations to lower demand fears amid tariffs uncertainty and weakening economic data. More recently, oil price started to climb as the US imposed fresh sanctions on

ThinkMarkets, a globally recognised leader in multi-asset online trading, recently announced the launch of ThinkRewards, its new loyalty programme, designed to recognise and reward both new and existing clients who trade with ThinkMarkets on a recurring basis. The programme allows clients to earn points through their trades, with points for special occasions, events, referrals, and

April 2 is creeping closer and the headlines are dizzying. We started off the week with big pickup in risk assets after a pair of reports saying that Trump was going to leave a few countries off the tariff list. Today though, the FT reports that Trump is considering a two-step approach that would start

Do you like hard data or soft data? That’s the question facing bond markets today ahead of the sale of 2-year notes at the top of the hour. There are $69 billion up for grabs and they’re rich on recent history at around 4.00% compared to last months’ sale at 4.169%. Today, there has been

The AUDUSD has shown a constructive technical shift, breaking above both the 100- and 200-bar moving averages (blue and green lines on the chart below) on the 4-hour chart. This move is significant as it signals a potential change in short-term momentum. These moving averages, now clustered around 0.6302–0.6308, had previously capped upside attempts, but

The TSLA stock has been surging higher in the past few days on a mix of positive news which have been lifting the broad US stock market. The US data has started to surprise to the upside recently alleviating growth fears. Over the weekend and on Monday we got some positive news on tariffs with

Services index -4 vs +11 last month Manufacturing shipments -7 vs +12 last month Other details: Employment -1 vs 9 last month Wages 19 vs 21 last month Prices paid 3.75 vs 2.23 last month Prices received 2.34 vs 1.62 last month New orders -4 vs 0 last month Backlog of orders -1 vs -6

Trump is considering a two-step tariff regime on April 2 – FT ECB’s Vujcic: April meeting is completely open, more data is needed The Citi US Economic Surprise Index is climbing back into positive territory Koala-fied for a Rally – Aussie Dollar Climbs on Pre-Election Tax Cuts ECB’s Kažimír: We are open to discuss a

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The Kremlin says that they are still analysing the outcome of the talks in Riyadh. There’s been no official statement from both sides yet but as mentioned earlier, talks were rather lengthy with reports stating that it stretched for over 12 hours. This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

A New Axis? Russia, China, Iran, and North Korea Align Further – What Investors Need to Know Senate intelligence testimony reveals heightened strategic cooperation among key U.S. adversaries, signaling long-term shifts in global risk dynamics. What’s Happening in Latest Senate Intelligence Committee Hearing During the latest Senate Intelligence Committee hearing, top U.S. intelligence officials confirmed

Prices +0.5% m/m vs -0.1% prior Prior was +0.5% m/m Non-seasonally adjusted -0.1% vs -0.1% prior Prices y/y +4.7% vs +4.8% expected Prior y/y +4.5% Separate data on house prices from the FHFA: Prices m/m +0.2% vs +0.4% prior Prices y/y +4.8% vs +4.7% prior3 “Home price growth continued to moderate in January, reflecting a

There are no real comments on the economy here but Williams isn’t shy when it comes to doing Q&As so I’ll watch for that later. This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

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The news outlet cites Ishiba’s remark to Tetsuo Saito, who is the party leader to the LDP’s coalition partner Komeito. No details are given on what these “strong measures” will be yet. This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

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The USDCHF continues to trade with a bearish bias, failing to sustain upside moves above resistance targets. Yesterday, the price briefly moved above last Thursday and Friday highs near 0.8842 but failed to hold the breakout. Today’s attempt to extend gains above yesterday’s high at 0.8841 also failed, with price reaching 0.8848 before reversing lower

The USDCAD pair encountered firm resistance at the 100-hour moving average, currently near 1.4329, halting the latest bullish push. The inability to break above this level triggered a downside rotation, signaling that buyers lacked the momentum needed to clear key near-term resistance. The 200-hour MA, located just above at 1.4343, also contributed to the ceiling.

The data out over the US today was mostly on the weakest side: Philadelphia Fed nonmanufacturing tumbled to -32.5 from -13.1 last month Consumer confidence came in at 92.9 versus 94.0 and 100.1 last month. New home sales came in about as expected Richmond Fed was lower at -4 versus +6 lastmonth US yields which

There is a move to largely ignore falling US consumer confidence as it dwindles because of political uncertainty. We’re in an era where politics and the news cycle dominates feelings rather than real indications on wages and job availability. That said, it’s been four straight months of a swan dive in US consumer confidence and

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Prior was 98.3 (revised to 100.1) Present Situation Index 134.5 vs. 136.5 prior Expectations Index 65.2 vs 72.9 prior 12-month inflation expectations 6.2% vs 5.8% prior Jobs hard-to-get at 15.7 vs 16.0 prior This is a better indicator than the UMich survey but I think most of the market is at the point where they

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Eurostoxx +0.3% Germany DAX flat France CAC 40 +0.4% UK FTSE +0.3% Spain IBEX +0.4% Italy FTSE MIB +0.4% Just be wary though that US futures are looking fairly cautious, with S&P 500 futures now down 0.2%. That’s sort of eating into the early optimism and could bite at European stocks later on. Of course,

Goldman Sachs has upgraded its GBP forecasts across major currency pairs, citing better-than-expected UK growth, fiscal discipline, and limited direct exposure to US tariffs. Sterling has also benefited from political stability, a stronger services sector, and supportive rate differentials. With risks skewed in the UK’s favor compared to the Eurozone and signs of renewed investor

The USD is lower vs the 3 major currency pairs. The EURUSD is higher after an early European session move to the downside stalled near a swing area (between 1.0761 to 1.07767. The USDJPY has moved lower and trades at session lows to start the US sesssion. It is tesing the 200 bar MA on

Bitcoin Futures – tradeCompass Bitcoin Analysis Today (March 25, 2025) Bitcoin futures are cooling off today after a strong rally on March 24, where price surged +4.38% intraday and closed the session up +3.31%. As of now, we’re seeing a healthy pullback of about -1.5%, with Bitcoin futures trading around $87,065. This pause is typical

Senate Puts Drug Cartels at Top of Threat List – Key Implications for USD, Security Stocks, and China Trade Tensions FBI and Senate warn of fentanyl-fueled cartel crisis; investors should watch USD strength, border tech stocks, and China-linked supply chains. What’s New from the Live US Senate Hearing In a rare shift, the U.S. Senate

The Australia’s center-left government unveiled an unexpected tax cut and an extension of energy rebates in the pre-election budget in what looks like an attempt to shore up political support and help secure Prime Minister Anthony Albanese a second term in office. The Australian Dollar and Australian Bond Yields got a boost from the news

There is arguably just one to take note of on the day, as highlighted in bold. That being for EUR/USD at the 1.0850 level. That said, the expiries might not have too much impact with sellers in near-term control and eyeing another test of the 1.0800 mark today. That’s the bigger level in play for

The NZDUSD continues to draw strong support from the 200-bar moving average on the 4-hour chart, currently at 0.5707. Today marked the fourth successful test of this key level (see lower green line on the chart above), with buyers stepping in once again to halt the downside. Each bounce reinforces the technical importance of this

Prior 85.2; revised to 85.3 Current conditions 85.7 vs 85.5 expected Prior 85.0 Expectations 87.7 vs 87.5 expected Prior 85.4; revised to 85.6 It’s an improvement across the board even with some positive revisions to February to boot. No doubt that the optimism from the German debt brake reform is helping to lift broader business

Bank of Japan Governor Ueda will be answering questions in parliament just after 1220 Japan time 0320 GMT 2320 US Eastern time This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

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German DAX futures flat French CAC 40 futures flat UK FTSE futures -0.1% This comes with S&P 500 futures also keeping flattish as the strong rebound yesterday fizzles for the time being. It’s shaping up to be a rather quiet one in Europe as we await the hustle and bustle in US trading once again.

Trump’s Two-Step Tariff Plan Emergency Tariffs First: Trump is considering using rarely invoked emergency powers to impose immediate tariffs while conducting formal investigations into trading partners. Legal Framework: His team is exploring Section 301 investigations, the International Emergency Economic Powers Act, and Section 338 of the 1930 Tariff Act to implement tariffs of up to

Prior month 0.657M revised prior to 0.664M New Home sales for February 0.676M vs 0.679M estimate New home sales Change MoM 1.8% vs -6.9% (revised from -10.5%) last month. Details: Median sale price: $414,500, down -1.5% from Feb 2024 ($420,900) Homes for sale at end of February: 0.500 million units (vs Jan 0.496M) New home

It is estimate that 12-month PCE was at 2.5% in Feb based on CPI and PPI Progress on bringing inflation to target has slowed Return of positive goods inflation is ‘unhelpful’ as it had helped keep a lid on total inflation and inflation expectations Surveys show consumers expecting further increases in the near term, with

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The preliminary report from USGS pegs the magnitude at 7 depth 10km (about 6 miles) I haven’t any more detail at this stage – no word on any tsunami alert as yet This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

This news is giving Bitcoin and Ethereum a boost although it’s now entirely fresh. The cryptocurrency is already live on the Ethereum and Binance blockchains, which are decentralized databases that track the flow of digital assets. This is probably giving cryptocurrencies a boost since it’s now announcing it publicly although I don’t see why it

1240 GMT / 0840 US Eastern time: Federal Reserve Board Governor Adriana Kugler speaks on “Economic Landscape and Entrepreneurship” before the U.S. Hispanic Chamber of Commerce 2025 Legislative Summit 1305 GMT / 0905 US Eastern time Federal Reserve Bank of New York President John Williams gives opening remarks before the 2025 New York Fed Regional

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April meeting is completely open, more data is needed. He’s not saying anything new here as ECB members continue to keep the door for another rate cut open in light of the upcoming Trump’s “Liberation Day” on April 2nd. This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at www.forexlive.com.

Budget deficit for 2024-25 expected at A$27.6 billion Budget deficit for 2025-26 expected at A$42.1 billion Sees Australia GDP growth at 2.25% in fiscal year 2026, 2.5% in fiscal year 2027 A tweak to the tax rate for the $18,201 to $45,000 threshold, which will be cut from 16% to 15% from 1 July 2026,

The mood music is looking more tentative in the new day as broader markets are not building on the risk rebound from yesterday, at least not yet. Trump tariffs continue to be a key focus ahead of the 2 April deadline and once again, he showed some willingness to water down his hard-hitting rhetoric as

The Citi US Economic Surprise Index is a widely followed indicator that measures how recent economic data compares to consensus expectations. How It Works The index rises when economic data releases (such as GDP, employment reports, inflation, or retail sales) exceed expectations. It falls when data disappoints relative to forecasts. A positive reading means that,

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In the European session we don’t have much on the agenda with the German IFO as the only highlight. The IFO index is similar to the German Composite PMI as they are correlated, so it will likely surprise to the upside but overall shouldn’t change much for the market. In the American session, the main

The talks were a long one with reports citing “more than 12 hours of consultations”. There should be statements released later today from both the US and Russian camps, so watch out for that later in the day. Reuters did report overnight that the US delegation is also set to meet up with their Ukrainian

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Rate cuts by year-end Fed: 59 bps (85% probability of no change at the upcoming meeting) ECB: 50 bps (70% probability of rate cut at the upcoming meeting) BoE: 40 bps (55% probability of no change at the upcoming meeting) BoC: 46 bps (72% probability of no change at the upcoming meeting) RBA: 65 bps

They’re still not really giving anything away for the time being. The next Eurozone CPI report on 1 April and Trump tariffs on 2 April will be key developments to watch in determining their next step in the month ahead. This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

Fundamental Overview Gold came under some pressure yesterday following the US Flash PMIs as the data showed a strong rebound from the prior month. That helped push aside growth fears for now although the risks remain with the market waiting for the tariffs plan announcement on April 2nd. In the bigger picture, as long as

Two permanent FOMC voters speaking Tuesday – Kugler and Williams Bank of Japan Governor Ueda will be speaking soon – answering questions in parliament Mag 6.2 earthquake off the West Coast of South Island, New Zealand Reports that China has released five Mintz Group employees who were detained in 2023 Samsung co-CEO Han Jong-hee dies

Must think about valuation and market rout risks when offloading ETF holdings JGB holdings would continue to have stock effect since reduction pace is extremely slow He’s answering questions here as the BOJ is nearing the end of fully getting rid of the stocks purchased from struggling banks back in 2002. They then began selling

Good morning, afternoon and evening all. Any charts, technical analysis, trade ideas, thoughts, views, ForexLive traders would like to share and discuss with fellow ForexLive traders, please do so: This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

Piper Sandler believes fears about Tesla’s brand taking a major hit are exaggerated. While Elon Musk’s political behaviour may have slightly affected demand, the larger issue behind Tesla’s sharp drop in first-quarter deliveries was supply-side—specifically factory shutdowns that limited Model Y production. The firm notes demand remains strong, and with new products and a robo-taxi

Financial Times reports that China is considering including services in the multi-bn $ subsidy program to stimulate consumption more to come FT is gated but the gist is that China is considering including services in a multibillion-dollar subsidy programme to stimulate consumption, according to officials and academics. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at

S&P Global US March flash services PMI 54.3 vs 50.8 expected Trump will announce additional tariffs on autos, lumber and chips BOE’s Bailey: We are seeing businesses delay investment due to uncertainty Fed’s Barr doesn’t comment on monetary policy or the economic outlook BOE’s Bailey: We face a challenge to raise the potential growth rate

Trump Media & Technology Group, the company behind Truth Social and majority-owned by Donald Trump, has signed a non-binding agreement with Crypto.com to develop a range of exchange-traded funds (ETFs) and financial products. The initiative aims to offer both digital assets and securities with a strong “Made in America” focus, the company said on Monday.

As is usual for a Monday morning, market liquidity is very thin until it improves as more Asian centres come online … prices are liable to swing around, so take care out there. Indicative rates, little change from late Friday: EUR/USD 1.0813 USD/JPY 149.36 GBP/USD 1.2893, a touch of weaker – I’m sniffing around for

Good morning, afternoon and evening all. Any charts, technical analysis, trade ideas, thoughts, views, ForexLive traders would like to share and discuss with fellow ForexLive traders, please do so: This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

UPCOMING EVENTS: Monday: Australia/Japan/EU/UK/US Flash PMIs. Tuesday: German IFO, US Consumer Confidence. Wednesday: Australia Monthly CPI, UK CPI, US Durable Goods Orders, BoC Minutes. Thursday: US Final Q4 GDP, US Jobless Claims. Friday: Tokyo CPI, BoJ Summary of Opinions, UK Retail Sales, French CPI, Canada GDP, US PCE, University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment (Final). Monday

Mark Carney announced an April 28 election, as was widely reported last week. He went straight into campaign mode and proposed reducing the lowest income tax bracket by one percentage point. Polls between the Liberals and Conservatives are tight and that will make for an interesting five-week campaign. This article was written by Adam Button

This info comes via a Bloomberg piece (gated). In brief: Bank of America forecast AUD/USD to 0.68 be December 2025: Australian dollar gradual recovery seen from Q2 2025 driven by USD depreciation and then by China stimulus (lagged impact) in H2 2025 RBA higher terminal policy rate due to the stickiness of inflation also a

Reuters carry the report on discussions between European central banking and supervisory officials questioning whether they can still rely on the U.S. Federal Reserve to provide dollar funding in times of market stress Reuters cite “six people familiar with the matter” sources told Reuters they consider it highly unlikely the Fed would not honour its

Mon: EZ/UK/US Flash PMIs (Mar) Tue: PBoC MLF Announcement, NBH Announcement, German Ifo Survey (Mar), US Richmond Fed (Mar) Wed: BoC Minutes, CNB Announcement, Australian CPI (Feb), UK CPI (Feb), US Durable Goods (Feb), Thu: Norges Bank Announcement, US GDP (Q4), US PCE (Q4), Tokyo CPI (Mar), Banxico. Fri: BoJ Summary of Opinions, UK Retail

Turkey’s Capital Markets Board bans short selling transactions on Istanbul Stock Exchange for 1 month Decides to ease equity ratio requirement when making credit capital markets transactions Removes maximum limit for total amount to be used for share buybacks of listed companies Meanwhile, at the Turkish central bank, The Central Bank of the Republic of

It’s a slow start to the data agenda for the new week. There is plenty ahead though: Weekly Market Outlook (24-28 March) Newsquawk Week Ahead: US PCE, Global PMIs, UK CPI and Spring Statement, BoJ SoO This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

Wall Street Journal (gated) report, in (very brief) summary: The White House is adjusting its tariff strategy ahead of the planned April 2 rollout. Instead of implementing broad, industry-specific tariffs (such as on cars, pharmaceuticals, and semiconductors), the focus will likely shift to targeted reciprocal tariffs aimed at countries with significant trade ties to the

NVIDIA Stock Analysis: Quiet Strength Building Underneath the Surface Price Snapshot: NVIDIA stock recently closed around $117.86, holding just above the core price zone where most recent trading activity has been concentrated — around $117.57. This zone represents what professionals call a “fair value area” — a kind of balance point where buyers and sellers

In light of rising tariff risks, elevated inflation expectations, and stretched equity/credit valuations, Goldman Sachs outlines the strategic case for commodity investing. Far from being just a play on rare “supercycles,” commodities can provide attractive long-term returns, portfolio diversification, and superior inflation protection — particularly during late-cycle phases or supply shocks when both equities and

USDJPY has shown more bullish momentum as the day comes to the end of the week. The USDJPY price has now stretched above the 100-hour moving average (MA) and a key swing area, signaling potential further upside. Earlier today at session lows, the buyers leaned near the 200-hour MA, reinforcing support and providing a base

USD/CAD rose as high as 1.4373 today but has trimmed that back by 40 pips and is closing in on unchanged on the day. The pair rose after today’s Canadian retail sales data, starting a 40-pip climb that’s been now fully reversed. Mixed in with that move was a broader USD rally as stock markets

Is the long-term bull market in the US dollar finally over? Plenty of research notes this week highlight the end of the era of ‘American exceptionalism’ and that’s been a trading theme so far this year as the US dollar has sagged (though it’s bounced a tad today). In any case, the speculative money has

The USD was mixed in trading this week. How did the greenback do vs the major currencies? Looking at the change % below, the dollar is higher vs the EUR, JPY, GBP, AUD and NZD. It is lower vs the CHF and the CAD. The biggest gain was vs the AUD at 0.79%. The greenback

The euro is on track to finish the week slightly lower but that follows two weeks of gains on a German agreement to suspend the debt brake in what the market sees as a shift to a more-active fiscal policy. With that, analysts at CIBC see a steadily rising euro over the course of the

European major indices are closing the day mostly lower with the exception being Spain’s Ibex. A snapshot of the closing levels shows: German DAX, -0.47% France’s CAC -0.63% UK’s FTSE 100 -0.63% Spain’s Ibex, +0.33% Italy’s FTSE MIB -0.39%. For the trading week, the indices were mixed: German DAX, -0.41% France’s CAC, +0.18% UK’s FTSE

Oil -1 at 486 Natural gas +2 at 102 Total rigs +1 at 593 The price of crude oil is trading up $0.32 and $68.39. For the week, the price is up about 1.8%. This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

Major US indices have recovered most of their losses. The S&P index is down 6.8 points or -0.11% at 5657 The Dow industrial average is down -14 points or -0.03%. The NASDAQ index is trading up 16.7 points or 0.09%. At session lows the: Dow industrial average traded as low as -519.46 points. S&P index

Trump: We can talk about China tariffs Canada January retail sales -0.6% vs -0.4% expected Fed’s Williams: Current modestly-restrictive policy is ‘entirely appropriate’ More from Fed’s Williams: We’re not in a hurry to make next mon policy move Eurozone March consumer confidence -14.5 vs -13.0 expected Fed’s Goolsbee: Business contacts are waiting on capital spending

Trump spoke at a crypto event on Thursday, via a pre-recorded video address: want to make America “the undisputed Bitcoin superpower and the crypto capital of the world” said he’s ending former President Joe Biden’s administration’s “regulatory war on crypto and Bitcoin” wants Congress “to pass landmark legislation creating simple, common-sense rules for stablecoins and

Major indices close lower on the day Doubletree’s Gundlach: Don’t think we see a cut at the next meeting Germany, Italy, Poland, UK and Canada to meet in Paris next week to discuss Ukraine Crude oil futures settled $68.07 More from BOC Macklem: Expecting March CPI to be around 2.5% BOC’s Macklem: We’re not in

According to Bloomberg, Germany, Italy, Poland, UK and Canada are to me in Paris next week to discuss Ukraine: The Wall Street Journal published an article today about a European initiative for peace with the issues of that initiative. A summary Western allies are discussing deploying 10,000 to 30,000 troops to Ukraine to help enforce

The USDCHF surged higher following the Swiss National Bank’s rate cut, which had a 64% probability priced in. The Swiss franc weakened, pushing USDCHF upward as the market reacted. The rally broke above a key cluster of moving averages, including the 100-hour, 200-hour, and 200-day MAs, reaching a high of 0.8845 before pulling back during

Earlier this week the Bank of Japan left monetary policy unchanged: ForexLive Asia-Pacific FX news wrap: BoJ holds rates steady, markets eye Ueda & Fed ahead The next meeting is April 30/May 1. By then we will have had the February (see below) and March CPI data. February CPI data is expected to have slipped

Happy Friday all! (And in advance to those of you living in the past). Good morning, afternoon and evening all. Any charts, technical analysis, trade ideas, thoughts, views, ForexLive traders would like to share and discuss with fellow ForexLive traders, please do so: This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

The major US indices fluctuated an up and down trading today, but are closing lower. Dow industrial average bill -11.31 points or -0.03% at 41953.32. At session highs index is up close to 286 points while at session lows the units was down -269 points. S&P index fell -12.4 points or -0.22% at 5662.89. At

Trump is invoking emergency powers to boost the ability of the US to produce critical minerals. Bloomberg with the report on Trump doing something to help out with the production of industry critical mineral production in the US. Trump adds that he’ll shortly be signing an agreement with Ukraine on rare earths. Trump is invoking

Doubletree’s Gundlach on CNBC says: I don’t think we see a cut in the next Fed meeting I think the first cut might come in June – July. The Fed might be seven states for Q3 Says the chance of recession is 50% to 60% Does not see 10-year going below 4% Have hard time

Morgan Stanley analysts have reduced their Tesla price target from $430 to $410 citing lower projected vehicle deliveries for 2025—1.61 million, down from 1.92 million Despite the adjustment, maintains an Overweight rating on the stock revision does not significantlyy alter the TSLA investment thesis Morgan Stanley remain optimistic about Tesla’s AI advancements and its potential

Good morning, afternoon and evening all. Any charts, technical analysis, trade ideas, thoughts, views, ForexLive traders would like to share and discuss with fellow ForexLive traders, please do so: This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

A look at the Fed Chair Powell’s comments categorized by topic 1. Monetary Policy & Rate Decisions We are not in any hurry to move on current rates. We are at a place where we can cut or hold at what is clearly a restrictive stance of policy. On balance, people wrote down similar forecasts

The stocks are not scared by the Fed chair’s comments about the economy and policy action going forward and are rising sharply. The S&P index is now up over 1.5% and the NASDAQ index is up over 2.0%. The small-cap Russell 2000 is up 1.9% Shares of Nvidia are up 3.94%. Alphabet shares are up

more to come New Zealand economic growth data for Q4 2024 kicks the calendar off today. The New Zealand economy is, slowly, on the turn better after a string of 3*50bp interest rate cuts from the Reserve Bank of New Zealand. The Australian employment report for February follows later. Another solid growth in jobs added

There was a solid bid in US stocks all day but it accelerated as Powell brushed off inflationary concerns around tariffs. However after the FOMC press conference, there was strong round of profit-taking that took the S&P 500 down by 40 points from the highs. S&P 500 +1.1% – up 61 points to 5675 Nasdaq

US stock markets cheer on Fed day How Federal Reserve pricing for this year changed since the FOMC decision What did the Fed Chair say today organized by topics? Powell Q&A: A ‘good part’ of higher inflation forecasts is due to tariffs Powell opening statement: Recent indications point to a moderation in consumer spending A

I’m having a hard time seeing any big changes from Powell’s press conference and the FOMC today. If anything, the big one is that officials are getting back on Team Transitory around tariffs. There was a risk they could have shifted to a hawkish stance on higher inflation but that didn’t unfold. That said, Powell

A take on the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) from Goldman Sachs Asset Management: The Federal Reserve struck a “cautious tone” at its latest policy meeting, opting to remain “on hold” as it assesses the U.S. growth outlook and evolving trade policies Revisions to FOMC members’ projections “had a somewhat ‘stagflationary’ feel, with forecasts for

Ahead of the FOMC decision, the Fed funds futures market was pricing in 55 basis points of easing this year. That’s shifted to 65 bps currently. At first that sounds strange given that the FOMC dot plot took a hawkish shift but the risk was that we would see Powell take an alarmist view of

The Financial Times says Trump’s tariffs are a ‘shadow’ over the US economy: I thought a dark shadow was some sort of candlestick formation, but perhaps that’s just me 😉 Anyway, I haven’t seen the details of the article (Financial Times is gated) but I’ll see what I can dig up. The FT is right

EMSC info: Magnitude 5.6 Region COQUIMBO, CHILE Depth 76 km 288 km WNW of San Juan, Argentina 33 km ESE of Coquimbo, Chile As noted in the sub-heading, Chile is the world’s largest producer and exporter of copper. I haven’t info on any mining/precessing/export implications as yet. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at

On Tuesday the German parliament approved a significant borrowing increase to fund infrastructure and security spending while easing borrowing restrictions. Germany is expected to spend €900 billion – €1 trillion over the next ten years, over 20% of GDP. Fitch projects the fiscal deficit to grow to 4-4.5% of GDP by 2027, up from 2.6%

Westpac-McDermott Miller New Zealand consumer confidence index fell to 89.2 in Q1 2025 from 97.5 in Q4 last year global trade war risks and ongoing cost of living pressures cited as impacting Westpac said poor results are likely for “a few more months at least” For this index, a reading below 100 indicates more pessimists

The US stock indices all traded negative for the entire trading day. Trump and Putin call did not help. Nor did the Nvidia GTC conference. The market is having trouble getting off its back. The wall of worry includes tariffs and the Fed decision tomorrow. What will the Fed say and do with the threat

US stocks cannot get out of the red today New Zealand consumer confidence weakened to 89.2 in Q1 2025, from 97.5 in Q4 2024 Zelensky: Talks about Ukraine without Ukraine will not bring about results Trump: Agreed to immediate ceasefire on energy and infrastructure Ontario Premier: US plans to introduce across-the-board tariffs on April 2

Passing along a snippet from RBC on EV maker Tesla (TSLA). says Tesla delivery fears may be overdone says the falls in drops in Europe and China are spatially a result of planned Model Y factory shutdowns RBC is optimistic that new models could boost sales in Q2 and Q3 2025 RBC acknowledge that TSLA

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While the Bank of Japan is the focus, no change is expected: 52 of 52 economists surveyed expect the Bank of Japan to remain on hold this week. The central bank bonanza returns to town this week USDJPY Technical Analysis – Eyes on the BoJ and FOMC decisions If you are new to BoJ day,

Via oilprice.com: Expectations I had seen centred on: Headline crude +0.9mn barrels Distillates -0.3 mn bbls Gasoline -2.4 mn — This data point is from a privately-conducted survey by the American Petroleum Institute (API). It’s a survey of oil storage facilities and companies The official report is due Wednesday morning US time. The two reports

Noting this bullish news for BTC overnight … and also that the price fell a little. Strategy plans to sell $500 million of dollar-denominated perpetual preferred stock. The firm says it intends to use proceeds for general corporate purposes acquisition of Bitcoin for working capital Crypto media carry more info if you are after it.

I don’t think anything has ever happened in Canadian political history quite like what’s unfolding right now and I suspect it’s rare in western democracies. At the turn of the year, the Canadian Liberal party under Trudeau was polling at 16% compared to Conservatives at 45%. But shortly afterwards, the deeply-unpopular Trudeau announced he was

Nothing much here at all to move around major FX too much. Eyes on tariff headlines, if any! Singapore jobless rate and Japan data is about it. The Tertiary Industry Activity Index is a key economic indicator in Japan that measures the monthly performance of the service sector, encompassing industries such as retail, finance, real

US February retail sales +0.2% vs +0.6% expected US March Empire manufacturing index -20.0 versus -1.50 estimate US March NAHB housing market index 39 vs 42 expected Atlanta Fed GDPNow Q1 estimate -2.1% vs -1.6% prior Canada February housing starts 229K vs 250K expected Comments from Kevin Hassett highlight optimism around Canada and Mexico Trump

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But the broader S&P and NASDAQ indices are trading to new session high with the S&P now up 1.04% while the NASDAQ index is up 0.87%. The Dow industrial average is also higher in trades up 1.14%. Looking at the hourly chart of the S&P index, the price moved above its falling 50 hour moving

There has been talk for awhile of a summit in the June 14-15 range. It’s a good sign that China tariffs won’t worsen before then. Trump also said he will be speaking with Putin on Tuesday. This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

Credit Agricole sees limited further downside for the USD, as the recent sell-off has lost momentum. The bank highlights three key reasons why the USD is unlikely to weaken significantly in the near term: (1) the Trump trade unwinding is largely complete, (2) US recession fears are overdone, and (3) the market’s Fed rate cut

Gold prices have risen to the US$3,000 mark, reflecting strong demand from central banks bolstering their reserves amid global economic uncertainty. The rally has intensified speculation about further gains, with DoubleLine Capital’s Jeffrey Gundlach forecasting that gold could climb to $4,000. Gundlach’s bullish outlook aligns with growing concerns over inflation, geopolitical risks, and the weakening

The US retail sales data released on Monday was a huge miss: US February retail sales +0.2% vs +0.6% expected With two months of 2025 retail sales data now in hand, signs of consumer caution are becoming increasingly evident. According to analysts at Bank of Montreal, real consumer spending appears on track for a sharp

Trump has announced that Michelle Bowman will be the Federal Reserve’s new Vice Chair of Supervision in a ‘tweet’ on his own social media app. ForexLive had this news last week! Michelle Bowman will be the new Federal Reserve Vice-Chair For Supervision To be fair, we were only passing on news from the Financial Times:

Local media here in Australia had the report Friday ICYMI: licences for hundreds of US companies to export meat to China will expire on Sunday if they aren’t renewed $US3 billion in US beef, pork and chicken trade to China is at risk I’ve seen estimates of higher than 3bn, up to 5bn. More: almost

Australian Treasurer Chalmers will speak on Tuesday (local Australian time), addressing the impact of a cyclone (that was downgraded from cyclone when it made landfall) that hit coastal communities in Queensland and NSW. Chalmers will speak of: preliminary estimates of the GDP subtraction of around quarter of a percentage point off quarterly growth could also

Over the weekend China announced an array of economic stimulus measures. The country’s State Council released what it calls a “special action plan” to boost domestic consumption. It’s a 30-point plan. Highlights include a boost to incomes and a childcare subsidy scheme. I’ll have more to come on this separately. On the data agenda is

As is usual for a Monday morning, market liquidity is very thin until it improves as more Asian centres come online … prices are liable to swing around, so take care out there. Indicative rates, little change from late Friday: EUR/USD 1.0879 USD/JPY 148.75 GBP/USD 1.2931 USD/CHF 0.8853 USD/CAD 1.4381 AUD/USD 0.6323 NZD/USD 0.5746 This

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UPCOMING EVENTS: Monday: China Industrial Production and Retail Sales, US Retail Sales, US NAHB Housing Market Index. Tuesday: German ZEW, Canada CPI, US Housing Starts and Building Permits, US Import Prices, US Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization. Wednesday: BoJ Policy Announcement, FOMC Policy Announcement. Thursday: Australia Employment report, PBoC LPR, UK Employment report, BoE Policy

China has released a 30-point plan aimed at boosting domestic consumption as a key driver of economic growth. This is line with this year’s Government Work Report at the just closed two sessions: China will “place a stronger economic policy focus on improving living standards and boosting consumer spending” The plan was issued on Sunday

European Central Bank vice president Luis de Guindos spoke in an interview with UK media, the Sunday Times (gated): “We need to consider the uncertainty of the current environment, which is even higher than it was during the pandemic.” “What we’re seeing is that the new US administration isn’t very open to continuing with multilateralism,

Mon: Chinese Activity Data (Feb), US Retail Sales (Feb) Tue: EZ Trade Balance (Jan), German ZEW Survey (Mar), Canadian CPI (Feb), Japanese Trade Balance (Feb), NVIDIA (NVDA) CEO to speak at GTC Wed: FOMC Announcement, BoJ Announcement, EZ Final CPI (Feb), New Zealand GDP (Q4) Thu: BoE Announcement, SNB Announcement, Riksbank Announcement, PBoC LPR Setting,

I spoke with BNNBloomberg on Thursday about the risks around the White House’s April 2nd planned announcement on global reciprocal tariffs, something I wrote about here. I also dove deeper into the Bank of Canada decision: People are overlooking the survey data they released. It was highly unusual to publish a survey along with the

The price action in both the AUDUSD and the NZDUSD was up and down indicative of a market that is trying to figure out which way to go. The AUDUSD has been fluctuating around the 100-bar and 200-bar moving averages on the 4-hour chart this week, but is currently trading above both as it moves

Bakers Hughes rig count for the current week: Oil rigs +1 to 487 Gas rigs -1 to 100 Total rigs Unchanged at 592 This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

Pres. Trump in an interview to be aired on Sunday says: They will know more about Russia’s readiness to agree to the proposal for a 30 day cease-fire with Ukraine on Monday. This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

The new Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney was sworn in today replacing Justin Trudeau. Carney is saying that: This is a time of great consequence for our country The government is to improve affordability and make Canada more secure He plans to go to France and UK Hopes to have a call with Trump,but does

US presented a bridge proposal to extend the cease-fire in Gaza. Proposed extension allow time to negotiate a framework for a permanent cease-fire Bridge proposal must be implemented soon and dual US – Israel citizen Edan Alexander must be released immediately Hamas privately making entirely impractical demands without a permanent cease-fire Hamas aware of deadline,

The broader US stock indices closed sharply higher on the day, but were still down for the fourth consecutive week. S&P index rose 117.42 points or 2.13% at 5638.94 NASDAQ index rose 451.07 points or 2.61% at 17754.09 Each of those indices have closed lower for 4-consecutive weeks The S&P index fell by -2.27% this

J.P. Morgan has cut its 2025 US growth outlook 2.6% from 1.9%. The company sites Policy uncertainty, New US tariffs raising prices Slowdown in spending, and . Retaliatory tariffs that will hurt exports. This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

The EU has not really been in the crosshairs with regard to any specifics on tariffs… yet. EU Trade Chief Sefcovic is saying: He had an important exchange with US Commerce Secretary Lutnick There is a lot of work ahead. We do know is that Trump is irked by the tariffs on US autos in

The major European indices are closing higher on the day but lower for the week. German DAX, +1.65% France’s CAC +1.14% UK’s FTSE 100 +1.05% Spain’s Ibex, +1.43% Italy’s FTSE MIB +1.73%. For the trading week, the indices are unchanged to lower: German DAX, -0.30% France’s CAC, -1.14% UK’s FTSE 100 -0.55% Spain’s Ibex, -1.90%

Broader US stock indices close higher but still down for the fourth consecutive week Pres. Trump: Will know more about Russia’s readiness to agree to a cease-fire on Monday What technical levels are in play for the AUDUSD & NZDUSD heading into next weeks trading J.P. Morgan cuts 2025 US growth outlook 1.6% from 1.9%

NZDUSD is currently trading at 0.5704, consolidating between key technical levels. On the upside, the 100-day moving average at 0.57527 continues to trend lower and is approaching the current price. For buyers to gain control, the price needs to break above this level, which would shift the bias more bullish. On the downside, the 200-bar

With the US envoy in Moscow speaking with Russian officials (Putin?), Ukraine’s Zelenskiy is on the wires saying: Putin is preparing the rejection of cease-fire proposal, but is scared to say this directly to Trump . Russia setting conditions on cease-fire to try to delay it or make it not happen This article was written

California-based MGA Entertainment is in a tough spot. The company supplies a large number toys to Walmart but suddenly finds itself facing tariffs as it largely makes its goods in China. Executives are pushing for price hikes at Walmart to compensate. “It’s going to hurt the consumer because we have to pass the extra cost

Major US stock indices reverse gains from yesterday and then some. Dow Industrial average fell -537.12 points or -1.30% at 40813.81. S&P index fell -77.81 points or -1.39% at 5521.49. NASDAQ index fell -345.44 points or -1.96% 17303.01 Russell 2000 fell -32.77 points or -1.62% at 1993.69 The S&P index is now down -10.18% from

During Pres. Trump term we will try to balanced-budget. We want it to take three years to balanced-budget. When Pres. balances budget, Pres. has suggested he wants to waive taxes for those earning under $150,000. It’s aspirational. No taxes on tips, overtime, Social Security. This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

Gold is wrapping up a day for the history books as it climbed $57 and finished at the highs of the day at $2989. That’s a record high and just a shade under $3000, a number that’s going to be in focus in Asia-Pacific trade. The only thing I can see stopping gold right now

Isday JPMorgan eviscerates US tariff policy on Canada as key meeting gets underway US major indices tumble led by the NASDAQ index US Commerce Sec. Lutnick: During Trump’s term we will try to balance budget Ukraine’s Zelenskiy: Putin is preparing a rejection of cease-fire proposal ECB’s Villeroy: Current US policy is a tragedy for the

Discover the difference between ETFs vs Stocks so that you can diversify and consistently profit from bull and bear markets The post ETFs vs Stocks: Which Is Better For You? appeared first on TradingwithRayner.

The Asia-Pacific economic calendar is light today but features a pair of releases from New Zealand: 5:30 pm ET (2130 GMT) February manufacturing PMI, prior 51.4 5:45 pm ET (2145 GMT) February food price index +1.9% Those aren’t likely to be market movers — even for the New Zealand dollar — but we will be

Officials from the US Commerce Department and Canadian Finance Ministry are scheduled to speak right now. As that meeting gets underway, JPMorgan is out with a scathing note, calling the US talking points ” economically, politically and geologically illiterate.” They highlight a few things to make that point: 1) Canada ranks as one of the

Prior was 51.4 (revised to 51.7) This is the best reading since August 2022. Is there still time to move to New Zealand? This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

Bank of Canada discussed pausing rates at 3% ahead of Wednesday’s announcement, Governor Tiff Macklem tells Reuters in an interview: Argument for staying at 3% was that growth had been stronger than we expected; another was, why don’t we wait until U.S. trade and tariff policy are a little clearer. But given we expect tariffs

It’s a light data agenda for the session ahead. The Reserve Bank of Australia will keep an eye on the latest inflation expectations figure. Last month the Bank began its long-awaited rate cutting cycle with a 25bp trimming of the cash rate. Expectations are that the next cut is many months away. This snapshot from

WH economic advisor Hassett on FoxNews interview says that he expects US GDP growth to be 2%– 2.5% in Q1. That is well above the Q1 estimate from the inlet Fed GDPNow model which pegged GDP growth at -2.4% on March 6. The model has been pretty accurate of late, but is based on current

Canada’s Minister of Export Promotion, International Trade and Economic Development, Mary Ng: Canada is seeking formal consultations with the United States regarding tariffs on steel and aluminum Tariffs violate US obligations under the USMCA agreement — The USMCA (United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement) is a trade deal that replaced NAFTA. Key changes include stricter rules for auto

Major US stock indices are closing the day with mixed results. The Dow industrial average is lower while the S&P and NASDAQ indices are ending the day with positive results after CPI data came in weaker than expectations. A snapshot of the closing levels shows: Dow industrial average fell -82.55 points or -0.20% at 41350.93.

Good morning, afternoon and evening all. Any charts, technical analysis, trade ideas, thoughts, views, ForexLive traders would like to share and discuss with fellow ForexLive traders, please do so: This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

Current Federal Reserve Board Governor Michelle Bowman Financial Times with the report. Bowman will replace Michael Barr: Fed’s Barr will resign from banking supervision role Bowman was a notable dissent to the FOMC 50bp rate cut back in September 2024: Fed’s Bowman explains dissent. Says she would have preferred a smaller rate cut This article

Bank of Canada Governor Macklem expects damage from tariffs, hence today’s rate cut Major US stock indices close today with mixed results WH Advisor Hassett: Expects US GDP to be 2%-2.5% in Q1 Crude oil futures settles at $67.68 US Federal budget deficit -$307B vs -$303.15B estimate US sells 10-year notes 4.310% vs 4.315% WI

J.P. Morgan is recalibrating its trade portfolio in response to evolving macroeconomic conditions, citing a moderation in U.S. economic exceptionalism, renewed tariff uncertainty, and lingering optimism over European reflation. tactically unwinding its residual long USD exposure initiating a short USD/JPY position in cash, paired with a short NZD/JPY basket says US economic data continues to

This via a Fox reporter: Explainer on this: The U.S. Department of the Treasury’s Office of Foreign Assets Control (OFAC) issued General License 8L (GL 8L) on January 10, 2025, as part of the Russian Harmful Foreign Activities Sanctions program. ie, this was issued under the Biden administration. This license authorized specific transactions related to

Trump’s trade adviser Navarro spoke with CNBC: 50% tariffs on Canadian steel and aluminum will no longer be taking effect tomorrow More: 25% steel and aluminum tariff begins at midnight there will be no exemptions on steel and aluminum tariffs On April 2 reciprocal tariffs begin Bears are lapping up the White House attacks on

ICYMI, J.P. Morgan economists are now forecasting a 40% chance of a recession up from 30% analysts at the bank cite “extreme U.S. policies” This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

Nothing on this data agenda is likely to move around major FX too much. This snapshot from the ForexLive economic data calendar, access it here. The times in the left-most column are GMT. The numbers in the right-most column are the ‘prior’ (previous month/quarter as the case may be) result. The number in the column

Major US stock indices are closing lower has volatile conditions persist. On-again/ off-again tariffs in Canada along with the potential for peace in Ukraine Russian war caused up and down price action. However, the rally into the last hour or so of trading that saw the broader indices turn into positive territory, cannot be sustained

Marko Kolanovic is a ‘market plumbing’ expert almost without peer. His expertise didn’t translate so well into stock market forecasting though. Kolanovic is ex-JP Morgan where he issued a long series of bearish equity market calls. With the S&P 500 now dropping he says now he sees it lower: into the low 5K area even

Good morning, afternoon and evening all. Any charts, technical analysis, trade ideas, thoughts, views, ForexLive traders would like to share and discuss with fellow ForexLive traders, please do so: This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

Via oilprice.com: Expectations I had seen centred on: Headline crude +2 mn barrels Distillates -0.8 mn bbls Gasoline -1.9 mn — This data point is from a privately-conducted survey by the American Petroleum Institute (API). It’s a survey of oil storage facilities and companies The official report is due Wednesday morning US time. The two

The USDCAD once again broke out of the Red Box today amid tariff tensions between the U.S. and Canada. Initially, Canada announced an electricity surcharge, prompting a sharp market reaction. However, after discussions, Canada rescinded the surcharge, and President Trump countered by suggesting he may adjust the 50% tariff threat on steel and aluminum. Additionally,

US stocks close lower in volatile session Trump trade adviser Navarro says will be no 50% Canada steel, aluminium tariffs tomorrow Trump says he will ‘probably’ reduce Canadian tariffs Trump: Economy is going to “blow it away”.Likely to backs down on 50% tariffs on Canada Ontario’s Ford agreed to suspend it 25% surcharge on exports

Trump’s belligerence on tariffs is a negative for risk, at the margin. Comments now from Trump: tariffs may go higher than 25% Trump didn’t specify any tariffs in particular. Maybe just a blanket move, but who knows? Yesterday we had a colleague of his emphasising Trump’s commitment to tariffs: Republican Senator says Trump is ‘dug

Tesla’s first-quarter delivery outlook is under renewed scrutiny, with UBS revising its forecast down to 367,000 units, a sharp cut from its previous 437,000 estimate issued after Q4 2024 results. The new projection reflects a 5% year-over-year decline and a steep 26% drop quarter-over-quarter, coming in 13% below Visible Alpha consensus expectations. While a late-quarter

The GBPUSD has stalled near 1.29458, with price action forming a triple-top resistance around this level. This area has proven to be a key barrier although somewhat random (IMHO). Nevertheless, with the 3 tops now on the 4-hour chart above, a sustained break above it would be needed to open the door for further upside.

NY Fed one-year inflation expectations 3.1% vs 3.0% prior ECB’s Nagel unveils a 12-point vision for German reform US Energy Sec says “I won’t have a specific price” for where he wants oil to go UK PM Starmer talked with Pres. Trump ahead of Saudi talks Ontario adds 25% surcharge to all electricity exported to

The NASDAQ index tumbled by 4.0% in trading today. That was it largest one-day decline since September 2022. Intraday, the price traded down -904 points at session lows before balancing over the last hour of trading to a decline of -727.90 points or -4.0% at 17468.32. The closing level came in at 17291.82. The S&P

The Speaker of the House, at present Mike Johnson, is where the buck stops with trying to get the Continuing Resolution (this is the stopgap funding bill to avert a government shutdown, usually abbreviated in this context to CR) passed. Johnson, though, has a wafer-thin majority of Republicans in the House. And many Republicans want

more to come The preliminary showing for Japan’s Q4 GDP was solid: ForexLive Asia-Pacific FX news wrap: Japan GDP data much higher than expected, yen up Japan Q4 GDP surges to +2.8% annualized (from +1.0% expected), deflator hits 2.8% – yen up Moreover, Japan’s economic data more generally has been improving, which has given that

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It was only on Friday that I posted: The CBOE Volatility Index, VIX, has closed at its highest nearly three months Or why your 401K is getting smashed The VIX has risen again, this time to 27.86, which is a big number – the highest since August 5 last year. Trump admitted on Monday the

The Nasdaq found some support when it was down 4.98%. It never crossed the 5% threshold and now it’s trimmed its losses to just 3.9%. It’s a good time for a late-day rally as the momentum could sustain into the close. The moves have extended to FX where we are getting decent bounces in commodity

Last week Target highlighted softness from the US consumer and now it’s Delta Airlines. The company cut its first quarter revenue growth forecast to 3% to 4% from its earlier forecast of 7% to 9% y/y. The company sees earnings of 30-50 cents from the earlier guide of 70-cents to $1. “The outlook has been

China inflation data for February 2025: Consumer Price Index -0.7% y/y, falling back into negative for the first time since January 2024 expected -0.5%, prior +0.5% Consumer Price Index -0.2% m/m expected -0.1%, prior +0.7% Producer Price Index -2.2% y/y expected -2.1%, prior -2.3% China’s National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) blames the y/y drop back

China’s housing minister, Ni Hong, spoke on Sunday said that the country’s property market is showing signs of improvement growing confidence among buyers market continued its positive trajectory in January and February, stabilizing after previous declines the government plans to encourage the purchase of existing homes and accelerate urban village redevelopment government will accelerate lending

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A few items via Reuters over the weekend ahead of Ceraweek, where energy industry leaders meet in Houston. Josh Young, chief investment officer at Bison Interests.: “The costs are way higher and that affects the profitability, “You’re starting to see producers hold back their capital. It’s the opposite of what the president wants.” Dan Pickering,

You’ll note a couple of points highlighted on the screenshot below: Chinese inflation data was published over the weekend: China inflation data: February CPI comes in at -0.7% y/y (expected -0.5%) As I’ve already said on this: China once again into consumer price deflation. The poor data has a double meaning for financial markets. Its

A week ago on Sunday, US President Trump made a mess of the crypto market but tweeting about a crypto reserve including Solana, Ripple and Cardano. A U.S. Crypto Reserve will elevate this critical industry after years of corrupt attacks by the Biden Administration, which is why my Executive Order on Digital Assets directed the

As is usual for a Monday morning, market liquidity is very thin until it improves as more Asian centres come online … prices are liable to swing around, so take care out there. I posted this data from China over the weekend: China inflation data: February CPI comes in at -0.7% y/y (expected -0.5%) China

U.S. Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick indicated that the 25% tariffs on steel and aluminum imports, set to take effect on Wednesday, are unlikely to be postponed. When asked on NBC’s Meet the Press over the weekend if the tariffs would go into effect on March 12 as planned, Lutnick confirmed, “Yes.” The tariffs, imposed by

US January non-farm payrolls +151K vs +160K expected Canada February employment change 1.1 K vs 20.0K estimate Fed’s Powell: U.S. central bank does not need to be in a hurry to adjust interest rates Q&A from Fed’s Powell: No need to redefine price stability White House examining options for easing energy sanctions on Russia Fed’s

Politics and diplomacy can be an amazing thing. Sometimes when you’re in the middle you can leverage both sides and get good deals with everyone. Other times, both sides use you as a punching bag. After getting beaten up by Canada’s ‘best friend’ all week in the USA, China decided to pile on over the

Mon: Eurogroup Meeting, Norwegian CPI (Feb), EZ Sentix Index (Mar), Japanese GDP (Q4) Tue: EIA STEO Wed: 25% US tariff on all imports of steel and aluminium comes into effect, BoC Announcement, ECB Wage Tracker, OPEC MOMR, US CPI (Feb) Thu: IEA OMR, EU-South Africa summit, Swedish CPIF (Feb), EZ Industrial Production (Jan), US PPI

As the Q&A session begins for Fed Powell, stocks have rebounded off their lows: S&P index -29.26 points or -0.51% at 5709.26. NASDAQ index -131.35 points or -0.73% at 17937.91. Dow industrial average -119.66 points or -0.28% for 2459.42. Some of the comments: No need to redefine price stability. I don’t think we need to

US stocks have erased declines and the Dow and S&P are now positive. The Nasdaq is now positive as well in volatile markets: Dow industrial average at 106.53 points or 0.25%. The index was down -403.46 points at session lows. S&P index is up 12 points or 0.21% of 5751. At session lows, the S&P

There is a nice afternoon turn in risk sentiment unfolding. The S&P 500 is now up 33 points to 5771 after falling as low as 5666. That’s a +100 turn in the index from the lows at noon ET. I didn’t see anything particularly notable from Powell as he remained in a ‘wait-and-see’ mode. If

As the trading week, comes to a close the USD is ending with sharply lower levels: EURUSD. The EURUSD is up 466 pips or -4.49% vs the USD in the trading week. That is the largest % move going back to March 2009 USDJPY: The USDJPY fell -255 pips or -1.70% vs. the USD this

The US posted a solid jobs report today, particularly given some of the recent fears about the economy. It added 151K jobs compared to 160K expected. “Trade policy uncertainty didn’t appear to have an obvious impact on the American job market in February,” wrote economists at CIBC after the data. They expect some deterioration in

The Treasury and Commerce Dept will explore pathways to acquire additional bitcoin holdings We are ending Operation Choke Point 2.0 (which was Biden’s plan on debanking crypto) Bitcoin hasn’t exactly been celebrating the reserve news this week. Update: Bitcoin doesn’t like it, below $86K now. This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

There is a bit of a carrot-and-stick approach from the White House on Russian sanction today. Trump tweeted about raising Russian sanctions in order to get peace but now Reuters reports that they’re examining removing existing sanctions as an incentive to reach a deal. The report says the White House has asked the Treasury to

The Canada trade minister Ng is on the wires saying that: 40% of products exported to the US are USMCA compliant They are close to surpassing their target to increase non-US exports by 50% by 2025. The 40% will not make Trump happy is my guess. This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

Hiring remains above the break-even level Watching very closely for any sudden jobs market changes Kugler does not expect government job cuts to show up suddenly Says she is paying a lot of attention to inflation expectations Critical to keep inflation expectations well anchored There is a high level of uncertainty of tariffs Uncertainty is

Discover how to master the volume weighted moving average to profit in bull and bear stock markets The post Volume Weighted Moving Average (The Essential Guide) appeared first on TradingwithRayner.

It was another rollercoaster in North American equity markets. There were some fresh tariff threats and the market is continue to digest some of the tariffs from earlier in the week. That was met with some dip buying in chipmakers and some beaten-up names. The big turn came at noon ET as the S&P 500

The USDCHF is extending its decline, hitting a new session low of 0.88247 after earlier bouncing from 0.88269 to 0.88612 before rotating lower again. The pair is now approaching a key technical level—the 200-day moving average (0.88203)—which has not been breached since December 12. A decisive break below this level could intensify selling pressure, with

Crude oil futures are settling at $66.36, up five cents or 0.08%. The low price reached $65.60. The high price was at $67.09. The price is rising from a six-month low despite growing concerns over rising supply, higher U.S. inventories, and weakening demand amid escalating U.S. trade tensions. The small gains followed a sharp decline

Note that Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta President Raphael Bostic is speaking on Thursday evening, US time (7pm US Eastern time). Its billed as participation in a conversation on the economic outlook with some focus on the Birmingham region. Be ready for some market relevant headlines from this. The Fed is facing a volatile political

Fed’s Waller: Seeing some signs of softer data Crude oil futures settles $66.36 White House: Trump to exempt Canadian and Mexican products from tariffs Trump: Most tariffs will start April 2 and be reciprocal February non-farm payrolls preview by the numbers: A wide range of estimates and opinions Trump considering major NATO shift: Won’t defend

It’s not exactly clear what was behind all the selling in stocks today. Trump reversed course on USMCA tariffs, though there is some confusion about what’s exempted and what isn’t. You could argue that he’s showing more determination around April 2 tariffs but that’s not exactly new. There was a brief bounce what Lutnick floated

Not all tariffs are passed through We have to respond to hard data Waiting to see if weakness in soft data shows up in broader statistics Doesn’t see a case for a March rate cut (market was only pricing in a slim chance anyway) Could see rate cuts after the March meeting (May priced at

Good morning, afternoon and evening all. Any charts, technical analysis, trade ideas, thoughts, views, ForexLive traders would like to share and discuss with fellow ForexLive traders, please do so: This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

There is some real confusion about how much US-Canada trade is covered by Trump’s order to withdraw tariffs today. The White House indicated it was just 36% but they also noted that could shift and that might not have included some of the carve outs. The White House also said just 50% of Mexican goods

Trump signed an order exempting tariffs on Mexico and Canada on USMCA-compliant items White House official says some Canadian petroleum products are compliant and some aren’t There is a carve out for Canadian potash Trump says not even looking at the market and long-term economy is very strong This is something we need to do

The CBOE Volatility Index, VIX, has closed at its highest nearly three months at 24.87. So what, you ask? Here are some market impacts and implications, and trading implications when you join the dots. The TL;DR is: A sharp jump in VIX typically signals market stress, risk aversion, and potential declines in equities. It can

Good morning, afternoon and evening all. Any charts, technical analysis, trade ideas, thoughts, views, ForexLive traders would like to share and discuss with fellow ForexLive traders, please do so: This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

Conversations with the USA are happening and ‘things are very, very fluid’ Looks like we will have to wait until after the stock market close for news on what’s coming next. This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

GBPUSD is pushing to a new session high, approaching the 61.8% retracement of its 2024-to-2025 decline at 1.29236. This key technical level could determine whether the pair continues higher or faces resistance. Earlier today, GBPUSD moved above a swing zone between 1.2830 and 1.2845, marking a significant technical shift. This break reintroduced the pair into

We are still waiting for more indications around US tariffs on Canada but the market is taking a constructive view. USD/CAD is at the lowest levels since Trump on Thursday said he would go ahead with levies on Canada and Mexico. Yesterday I highlighted a double top on that chart at 1.4540 and that technical

I keep coming back to the euro chart today as it surges 164 pips to bring the week-to-date rally to four big figures. There is a clear confluence of technicals and fundamentals in the past two days after Germany rolled out the fiscal bazooka. It’s an illustration of what can change when something that hated

In all the turmoil yesterday, RBNZ Governor Orr stepped down immediately in a surprise move. The market would be buzzing with talk about that if not for all the other drama. Hawkesby is the acting governor until the end of the month and then a temporary replacement will be appointed. Given the hasty exit, I’m

Eyes will once again be on China and its annual parliament. We had a barrage of announcements yesterday: ForexLive Asia-Pacific FX news wrap: China’s sets GDP growth target for 2025 “around 5%” It should be lighter today. All the better to buckle up ahead of the European Central Bank today: ECB to cut by 25bp

Closing changes: S&P 500 +1.2% Nasdaq Comp +1.5% DJIA +1.1% Russell 2000 +1.0% Toronto TSX Comp +1.1% Mexican Bolsa flat It was another lively day in the market as the market opened flat and then sold off before embarking on an afternoon rally, in part due to the confirmation that auto tariffs were ‘delayed’ by

BofA notes a significant shift in FX positioning this year, with USD longs being reduced by 40%, while JPY and EUR positions have increased. The market remains net long USD but with less extreme positioning, while EUR/USD shorts have moderated to post-COVID averages. Key Points: 1️⃣ USD Longs Reduced, but Still Present 💵 The year

Canada’s Foreign Minister Joly: Canada could potentially use oil and gas exports as a lever if US tariffs continue. Did this minister not get the memo? This was floated within a nanosecond or so of Trump’s first attack on Canada. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

Says he thinks Trump will meet Mexico and Canada in the middle on tariffs We’re going to probably be announcing that tomorrow If USMCA rules are followed, Trump is considering relief We’ll see tariff changes on April 2 with Mexico and Canada Canadians like to cheat Does he think that some kind of 12.5% tariff

Germany will set up €500 billion infrastructure fund and a special defense fund Trump tells advisors he wants to announce Ukraine minerals deal during Congress speech Hassett: If the fentanyl emergency were to be ended, then so would these tariffs Fed’s Williams: There is a lot of uncertainty on how tariffs will play out Trump

Bank of Japan Governor Ueda is speaking today. Given the way Japanese economic data, including inflation, is moving, Ueda is like;ly to be coming more confident on near term rate hikes. He may also be coming under some pressure to do just that: Japanese media says the BoJ could face US pressure to hike rates

Bitcoin is up $6000 from the intrday low as it traded as high as $88,465. That move has come in less than three hours but what’s particularly incredible is that if you zoom this chart out, it doesn’t even look like that big of a move in light of the $10,000 moves on Sunday and

Scott Bessent had floated monetizing federal assets and people had speculated about a lot of things. It sounds it’s more of a privatizing real estate move. This will raise some money but it’s a small number compared to the trillions the US needs to cut to balance the budget or cut taxes. This article was

There was nothing in particular to spur the huge turnaround in markets. Sentiment bottomed right at the close of European stock markets at 11:30 am ET. Since then we’ve seen an impressive rally in everything and the S&P 500 is back to flat and the Nasdaq is up 1%. It started with short-covering in some

S&P 500 -1.2% Nasdaq Comp -0.35% Russell 2000-0.4% Dow Jones Industrial Average-1.6% Toronto TSX Composite -1.3% There was a big rally after the European close and it looked like a nice reversal but sellers returned in the final 30 minutes of trading. Intel and Tesla had rough days while Google made some solid gains. This

Hassett was trotted out to lay the groundwork for delaying the tariffs in February. I don’t see much new in this comment yet but it’s notable that all of the focus is on fentanyl and none of it on immigration or the border. Earlier though, Lutnick highlighted fentanyl deaths as the key measure and those

Good morning, afternoon and evening all. Any charts, technical analysis, trade ideas, thoughts, views, ForexLive traders would like to share and discuss with fellow ForexLive traders, please do so: This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

Federal Reserve Bank of New York President John Williams spoke on Tuesday, ICYMI headlines here: Fed’s Williams: There is a lot of uncertainty on how tariffs will play out As befits a central banker Williams was cautious, saying there is a lot of uncertainty about how the ec onomy will respond to Trump’s tariffs. Williams

The data agenda coming up for those interested. Minutes of the Reserve Bank of Australia meeting in February are the focus. At that meeting the Bank cut rates for the first time since November 2020. The rate hiking cycle began in May 2022 with a move to 0.35%, and the Bank had been on hold

TSMC to build five additional chip factories in the US Total investment will be at least $165 billion $100 billion in addition to $65 billion already pledged Will also build an R&D center This is the $100 billion investment that leaked out earlier today. At some point, people thought that would be related to crypto

Friday’s big rally in US stock markets has been completely erased. S&P 500 down 113 points, or 1.9% Nasdaq Comp down 493 points, or 2.6% The Nasdaq has completely erased the entire post-election rally. This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

Good morning, afternoon and evening all. Any charts, technical analysis, trade ideas, thoughts, views, ForexLive traders would like to share and discuss with fellow ForexLive traders, please do so: This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

US 10-year yields are down 7 bps to 4.16% today. That’s the lowest so far this year and within striking distance of the December intraday low of 4.126%. Beyond that, 4.00% and the September low of 3.60%. That low came on big concerns about a slowing US economy and with the Fed rapidly cutting rates

China watchers are highlighting this article. It’s called “The Basic Understanding of China’s Current Fiscal Deficit Issue” and was written in the state-sponsored China State Finance publication. It comes at at time when the market and many economists are begging for heavy government borrowing and spending, with the National People’s Congress ongoing this week. “There

Trump earlier said Canada and Mexico tariffs would go into effect tomorrow. Later in the press conference he was asked if there was any room for negotiation before the tariffs went on and he said there wasn’t. “The tariffs, you know, they’re all set. They go into effect tomorrow,” he said. USD/CAD has jumped to

“Tomorrow – 25% on Canada, 25% on Mexico,” Trump said. USD/CAD jumped about 60 pips on the comment and US equities slumped. We will see what happens by the deadline. He also reiterated the April 2 reciprocal tariffs. Zelensky should be more appreciative Doesn’t think Ukraine minerals deal is dead Says they will make deals

The White House says that Trump signed the order to raise China tariffs to 20%. That’s notable partly because he hasn’t signed the orders on Mexico and Canada, or at least they haven’t announced it. CNBC in their reporting touched on that. They asked the White House about that order and it hasn’t been signed,

Trump signed the order to increase tariffs on China to 20% from 10% but didn’t yet sign them on Canada. That last-minute note led to some last-second buying that lifted stocks from the lows. Despite that, it was a rough day for stocks, with tech and small caps hit particularly hard. S&P 500 down 1.75%

Trump posted on his own social media app (bolding below is mine): A U.S. Crypto Reserve will elevate this critical industry after years of corrupt attacks by the Biden Administration, which is why my Executive Order on Digital Assets directed the Presidential Working Group to move forward on a Crypto Strategic Reserve that includes XRP,

Good morning, afternoon and evening all. Any charts, technical analysis, trade ideas, thoughts, views, ForexLive traders would like to share and discuss with fellow ForexLive traders, please do so: This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

Is PayPal Stock a Buy? Swing Trade Setup for PYPL Amid Oversold Conditions Is PayPal Stock a Buy or Sell? Market Context and Trade Setup PayPal Holdings, Inc. (NASDAQ: PYPL) has recently seen a significant decline, pushing it into oversold territory based on technical indicators. With the stock approaching a key support level, swing traders

UPCOMING EVENTS: Monday: China Caixin Manufacturing PMI, Switzerland Manufacturing PMI, Eurozone Flash CPI, Canada Manufacturing PMI, US ISM Manufacturing PMI. Tuesday: Eurozone Unemployment Rate, Canada-Mexico-China Tariffs Deadline, Trump Congress Speech. Wednesday: China Two-Sessions, Australia Q4 GDP, China Caixin Services PMI, Switzerland CPI, Eurozone PPI, US ADP, Canada Services PMI, US ISM Services PMI. Thursday: China

When you KNOW a major catalyst is coming you need to get on with as much as you can. Details: The $123 mn buying on Bitcoin was filled around $85,908 The $75mn buying on Ethereum filled around $2,197 Liquidation levels to the two fills (BTC and ETH didn’t even get close to dipping LOL) BTC

We had the official PMIs from China over the weekend: China February PMIs: Manufacturing 50.2 (expected 50.0) Services 50.4 (expected 50.3) I was happy to grab that info and post it, I thought it was the major event of the weekend. Boy was I wrong, LOL: A US$195mn buy order was placed & filled on

Official February 2025 PMIs from China’s National Bureau of Statistics (NBS). Both the January and February data are impacted this time of year by the Lunar New Year holidays. These were Jan. 29 to Feb. 12 in 2025. March will provide a clearer reading. Manufacturing 50.2, beating the median consensus estimate and back into expansion

What a fiasco this has turned into. Trump is out with a statement: “We had a very meaningful meeting in the White House today. Much was learned that could never be understood without conversation under such fire and pressure. It’s amazing what comes out through emotion, and I have determined that President Zelenskyy is not

It’s a real mess out there many fronts right now and that makes it a good time to look at the charts. Cable has my attention with the three-candle reversal that was completed yesterday. It was further validated by today’s decline, which is 40 pips to a 10-day low of 1.2560. The pair is trading

The FX market closes in three hours but there will be plenty of intrigue in the 48 hours before it ramps back up. That will start with an interview that’s scheduled for 6 pm ET between Ukraine President Zelensky and Bret Baier at Fox News. The interview is touted as ‘live’ and Baier says it’s

The EURUSD fell after comments from Trump (and the U.S.), suggesting Ukraine—and by extension, the EU—may have to fend for themselves if peace is not reached through compromise rather than victory. That did not sit well with Zelenskiy who see Russia as the aggressor and wants guaranteed security from the US. Trump does not want

It’s getting easier to connect the dots on the North American trade fight. Trump has scheduled 25% tariffs on Canada and Mexico for Tuesday at midnight but the market doesn’t really think it’s going to happen. The Trump admin has repeatedly said it’s about fentanyl but that’s obviously a canard. The question has always been:

Trump: Zelensky disrespected Oval Office and he can come back when he’s ready for peace More from Trump to Zelenskyy: You either make a deal or we are out Atlanta Fed GDPNow tracker swan dives into recessionary territory US January PCE core +2.6% vs +2.6% expected US advance goods trade balance for January -$153.26 billion

Trump to Zelenskyy: You have to be thankful… You don’t have the cards right now,and it is going to be very hard to do business like this. You either make a deal or we are out Your comments were very disrespectful. You’ve talked too much VP JD Vance told Zelenskyy that he has not once

I think this is a big tell on the North American front. Bloomberg reports that Mexico is open to new tariffs on China to avoid Trump duties. I don’t think anyone really believed this was all about fentanyl, given Trump’s words. Now we get some confirmation of that with the aim shifting towards blocking China

I don’t know if we’ve ever seen anything like this before. Zelensky, Trump and Vance descended into open argument in the White House. It was one of the most extraordinary things you will ever see in diplomacy (or lack thereof). The minerals deal was left unsigned and the Ukrainians have now left the White House.

Taking its cue from the book “It can’t get any worse?”, the US stock market is closing higher despite the Trump vs Zelenskiy brouhaha in the Oval Office. Despite the rebound, the broader S&P and Nasdaq indices are closing lower for the 2nd consecutive week. The final nmbers for the day are showing: Dow industrial

The AUD, NZD and CAD remain the weakest of the major currencies vs the USD (along with the EUR). Versus the USD, the % changes for those currencies now shows: AUD -1.10% NZD -1.07% CAD -0.73% Technically the AUDUSD and NZDUSD are moving below the 50% retracement levels and look toward the swing level next

North Korea has test fired a strategic cruise missile to test nuclear deterrence Back in the day this headline would have prompted a move into yen and the USD. Not so much any more. Besides, the USD is already up on the tariff talk that keeps on flowing out of Trump’s mouth: Forexlive Americas FX

The S&P 500 opened at 5864 on the morning after the US election, it’s now trading at 5880. That’s just a few points higher on what was a surprisingly strong Republican sweep. In the aftermath of the election, the market was enthralled with the idea of extending the Trump tax cuts, deregulation and a pickup

In late November, I made the case for buying gold. At the time, we got data that China’s central bank had resumed gold purchases. We were also dealing with US election uncertainty and — most importantly — the strong seasonal trend in gold. Gold was trading at $2620 since then and it caught a remarkable

OpenAI is hosting a livestream of the release of ChatGPT 4.5 right now. It’s going to be rolled out for Pro users this week and Plus users next week. Deep Research has earned some rave reviews. At the same time, today feels like a telling day. Nvidia beat on earnings, rose after hours and is

We are going to have a deal done with UK on trade rather quickly Tariffs are not about inflation but about fairness It’s been impressive how the UK has managed to avoid any threats from Trump. This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

The major indices close lower in trading here today with the NASDAQ index getting hammered and having its worst trading day since January 27 (DeepSeek day). The NASDAQ index is now down -3.97% on the year. A snapshot of the closing levels shows: Dow industrial average -193.62 points or -0.45% at 43239.50. S&P index -94.49

Trump pledges an additional 10% tariff next week. Says Canada/Mexico tariffs still on White House confirms additional 10% on China for a 20% total US initial jobless claims 242K versus 221K estimate US January durable goods orders +3.1% vs +2.0% expected US Q4 GDP second reading +2.3% vs +2.3% expected Trump: Tariffs are are going

Harker is retiring in June so I don’t know how much we should be listening to him. Policy rate remains restrictive enough to put downward pressure on inflation Fed watches the data, then reacts if we must Progress towards 2% inflation target has slowed Should not move to act on policy in either direction based

Federal Reserve more to come This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

President Biden gave Venezuela something of an olive branch in an effort to get free elections but it hasn’t gone to plan and now Trump says he’s ending it. He also cited that Venezuela isn’t taking back illegal immigrants. The deal had eased sanctions on oil, gas and gold but a portion of that had

Nvidia is set to release its fourth-quarter earnings report after the market closes today. Analysts project record revenue of approximately $38.1 billion, marking a 70% increase from the same period last year. Net income is expected to reach around $19.6 billion, or $0.85 per share. Year ago levels were: Revenues: $22.1 billion EPS: $0.51 The

US stocks were flying higher earlier today after Congress took a step towards passing a massive corporate tax cut but that’s quickly turned around with the Nasdaq and S&P 500 now both flat. The drop may reflect high anxiety about Nvidia earnings today but it’s hard to pin it on that given that shares of

Goldman Sachs analyzes the impact of anticipated Japanese repatriation flows, particularly from major institutions like GPIF and financial firms shifting allocations away from foreign bonds. While expectations lean toward a domestic stock and bond reallocation, there is little evidence yet of substantial foreign bond repatriation, making JPY strength potentially premature. Key Insights: 1️⃣ Major Institutional

Prior was 4.457% Bid to cover vs 2.64 prior This is the final Treasury auction of the week and the month. The yield is nicely below last months sale (by about a quarter point) following the broad rally in the bond market. This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

Trump is talking about DOGE, tariffs and the usual stuff in the Oval office. There isn’t anything market moving in what he’s said already but he said this on China: We’re going to get along very well with China China is a competitor US descriptions of China range from “competitor” to “adversary” to “enemy”. There

This week Deutsche Bank shifted its view on the euro in a shift to neutral. It’s been a nice ride down to 1.0480 from 1.09 at this time last year but they are seeing changes in the political winds on both sides of the trade. The three German centrist parties are likely to opt into

Once again, the bluff has been called. Earlier this week, Trump said the tariffs on Canada and Mexico would go ahead and now he has pushed them back another month. The tell was yesterday when Mexico’s Cheinbaum didn’t sound the least bit concerned. Trump made the announcement about 45 minutes ago in the Oval Office

The White House still plans to implement the 25% tariff on imports from Canada and Mexico next week. This is despite the comments from Pres. Trump earlier today that those tariffs would start in April. The USDCAD has seen a modest bounce to 1.4335. The high for the day reached 1.4366. The pair is back

In volatile up and down trading, the major indices are closing the session with mixed results. Dow industrial average fell -186.87 points or -0.43% at 43434.29. S&P index closed near unchanged. The index rose 0.92 points or 0.02% at 5956.17. NASDAQ index rose modestly by 48.88 points or 0.26% at 19075.26 The small-cap Russell 2000

The 3 major US stock indices traded below the 100-day moving averages intraday, but for the Dow industrial average and the S&P index, the price closed back above that key technical barometer. For the NASDAQ index it closed below its 100-day moving average at 19211.55 for the first time since September 10th. The S&P index

Trump signed an executive order directing the Commerce Department to examine possible copper tariffs. US commerce secretary Lutnick says will investigate possible imposition of tariffs to rebuild US copper industry. Lutnick: No exemptions, no exceptions; it’s time for copper to come home. White House official: Trump will recognize copper sector as a national security issue,

The market is struggling to read through mixed signals on inflation and growth in the US. Today’s consumer confidence number plunged in a sign that retail won’t be as strong as believed. I also wonder if all the turmoil coming out of DOGE might normalize broad layoffs as well. That’s come alongside some threats around

BofA remains structurally bearish on JPY, raising their USD/JPY forecast to 165 (previously 160) and expecting the 10-year JGB yield to reach 1.65%. They see continued JPY weakness driven by accelerating Japanese outward investment, as households shift wealth away from yen deposits into foreign assets amid persistent inflation. Key Points: 1️⃣ Higher USD/JPY Forecast 📈

Fox Business reporter Charlie Gasparino is repeating some of the earlier reporting about an investment fund and minerals deal with the US. His report also has this interesting tidbit: “They expect Zelenskyy also to agree to concessions in terms of ceding control of some land for peace.” Now that could just refer to the small

Many reports today say a deal is coming between the US and Ukraine on creating an investment fund with the US to invest in natural resources in the country. The details of that are still sketchy but it looks like it’s basically done and Zelensky will fly to the US on Friday to sign it

China’s stock market has been a darling lately, something I suspected was coming a month ago. What wasn’t clear was who was doing the buying — domestic or foreign investors — and how much conviction they have. In October, we got a taste of this dynamic as the rest of the world briefly fell in

The NZDUSD has seen the price move lower in trading today as risk-off sentiment led to declines. Having said that, the fall was not without it’s ups and downs intraday. Nevertheless, technically speaking, the first corrective high in the Asia-Pacific session stalled against the 100-hour moving average (blue line on the chart below). The rest

The price of crude oil fell -$1.77 or -2.5% to settle at $68.93. The declines today have been driven by economic concerns after a sharp drop in U.S. consumer confidence to an 8-month low of 98.3. That mirrored the Univ. of Michigan consumer sentiment released last week. Oil also declined alongside stocks and cryptocurrencies, with

Trump speaking: says Europe uses digital taxes to penalize US businesses says I hear that Ukrainian President Zelenskyy is coming to visit on Friday some form of peacekeeping troops will be needed for Ukraine Perhaps the troops will come from Europe and not the US? Dunno. Maybe Trump is not just a trade war guy?

Good morning, afternoon and evening all. Any charts, technical analysis, trade ideas, thoughts, views, ForexLive traders would like to share and discuss with fellow ForexLive traders, please do so: This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

Trump My people are dealing with Putin’s people constantly ONe of the first calls I made was to Putin We are working on transactions no, in particular to end the war Goal is to get war stopped with ceasefire or directly with agreement. We are on time with tariffs Tariffs are going forward Found hundreds

Trump press conference with Macron. My people are dealing with Putin constantly Russia’s Putin on US/Ukraine rare earth metals: It’s none of our business Germany is discussing EUR$200B in emegency defense spending Crude oil futures settled $0.30 higher at $70.70 JPM Dimon: We see consumers are kind of back, almost going to normal. BOE Dhingra:

Crude oil futures are settling up $0.30 and $70.70. The low for the day reached $69.80. The high was at $70.88. The low price was the lowest level going back to December 27. The price remains comfortably below its 200-hour moving average at $71.48 and its 100 hour moving average of $71.65. Getting back above

We get Japan’s services PPI (also known as the Corporate Services Price Index) for January today The January goods PPI from Japan (also known as the Corporate Goods Price Index) showed a solid rise: Japan PPI for January is +4.2%y/y (expected +4.0% prior +3.8%) While there is no number for expectations printed on the calendar

Last week, NZDUSD found support at the rising 200-hour moving average, holding its low before rebounding. The pair then broke above a key swing area (0.5683–0.5694), which acted as support on a corrective move Thursday before pushing higher. That day, the price also broke above the 100-hour moving average (near 0.5715), consolidated at that level,

Russia’s Putin is on the wires saying that the US-Ukraine rare earth metals negotiations are none of our business. Huh? He adds: On rare earth metals cooperation with US, Russia would be ready to offer joint work to US public and private entities. Huh? Trump want to improve political situation in Ukraine, to create conditions

We see consumers are kind of back, almost going to normal If terms are used to protect national security that is paramount government is inefficient, not very competent. Needs lots of work. It’s not just about the deficit, it is about building the government we deserve I do not see deflationary forces I am not

Germany is considering a EUR 200Billion in emergency defense spending to rebuild its military Germany is considering EUR 200 billion ($210 billion) in emergency defense spending to rebuild its military. Chancellor-in-waiting Friedrich Merz is in talks with the Social Democrats (SPD) to bypass borrowing restrictions. Plan to push a vote before March 24, before the

Bank of America on just one of the inflation impacts US consumers can expect: “If tariffs of 10–25% are imposed, PC makers like Dell, HP, and Apple will likely pass the added costs onto buyers, raising prices by at least 10% in the US or raise prices across more geos by a lower magnitude,” The

Good morning, afternoon and evening all. Any charts, technical analysis, trade ideas, thoughts, views, ForexLive traders would like to share and discuss with fellow ForexLive traders, please do so: This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

Various news sources have extensive coverage of the outcome of Germany’s Federal election. This is a summary, in very brief: CDU/CSU secures 28.7% of votes, with far-right AfD at 19.8%, per ZDF projection. Markets await coalition formation to gauge fiscal reform prospects. Market-friendly coalitions possible, including CDU-SPD-Greens. AfD’s weaker-than-expected result. Key focus on Germany’s “debt

AI hype and data-center capex have been major market drivers in the past year but there is some angst lately about how much is being spent and whether there is a real business case for it all. That really kicked off with DeepSeek undercutting cost assumptions and now there is a TD note doing the

As is usual for a Monday morning, market liquidity is very thin until it improves as more Asian centres come online … prices are liable to swing around, so take care out there. Indicative rates, a little change from late Friday, but not as much as we’ve come to expect over these past few weeks:

New Zealand retail sales for Q4 will be eyed. The Reserve Bank of New Zealand seems well set on a further easing course, with two or three 25 bp cuts expected in the months ahead through July. A beat on sales might edge pricing toward two rather than three, and a is vice versa. This

The European Central Bank (ECB) may reduce its deposit rate to 2% by summer, according to Francois Villeroy de Galhau, head of the Bank of France and an ECB Governing Council member. In an interview with Alternatives Economiques, Villeroy stated that based on the current outlook, a 2% rate could be reached by mid-year. He

It was a tough day in the market but that’s nothing compared to what crypto exchange Bybit faced today. The company confirmed that a wallet it was holding was drained of the equivalent of $1.5 billion in ethereum. It may be the largest theft of any kind, ever, at least in nominal terms. “Bybit is

UMich final February consumer sentiment 64.7 versus 67.8 expected US long-term inflation expectations hit a 30-year high in the UMich survey Canada December retail sales +2.5% vs +1.6% expected US existing home sales for January. 4.08 million versus 4.12 million estimate Fed’s Goolsbee: Steel tariffs will raise production costs in region Baker Hughes oil rig

On Sunday, German voters go to the polls in a high-contested election. The first exit polls will land Sunday at 6 pm CET (noon in New York) and the first results will be from 30 minutes later with continued updates from there. The conservative CDU/CSU is leading the polls with 31%, followed by the far-right

The Canadian dollar is facing risks from tariffs, trade, global growth, domestic housing, politics and energy. Plenty could go wrong but there is a brighter path that’s possible too. On Friday I spoke in an interview with BNNBloomberg about what has to happen to lift the loonie. For a deeper looking into these drivers and

Bitcoin or Ethereum: Which Crypto is the Better Investment in 2025? The Crypto Battle Between Bitcoin and Ethereum For crypto investors, the debate between Bitcoin (BTC) and Ethereum (ETH) remains one of the most important decisions in portfolio allocation. Over the past two years, Bitcoin has significantly outperformed Ethereum, as seen in the BTC/ETH ratio,

UPCOMING EVENTS: Monday: German IFO. Tuesday: US Consumer Confidence. Wednesday: Australia Monthly CPI. Thursday: Switzerland Q4 GDP, US Durable Goods Orders, US Q4 GDP (2nd estimate), US Jobless Claims. Friday: Tokyo CPI, France CPI, Germany CPI, Canada GDP, US PCE. Tuesday The US Consumer Confidence is expected at 103.0 vs. 104.1 prior. The last report

How DeepSeek is Changing the AI Game and Its Potential Impact on NVIDIA (NVDA) Earnings DeepSeek, a Chinese AI startup, has quickly gained attention in the AI world. While most discussions have been dominated by big names like OpenAI and Google, DeepSeek has emerged as a fresh competitor with an emphasis on efficiency and open-source

The USDJPY has moved below the 50% midpoint of the move up from the September 2024 low at 149.22. The low just reached 148.98. The price is also below a swing area between 149.078 and 149.39. Sellers looking for more downside could now use the 149.39 as the close risk level. Stay below is more

Fed’s Goolsbee is lurking around saying that: Steel tariffs will raise production costs in the region. He has spoken a few times this week. As a result, what he says will likely not impact the markets. Yesterday, Goolsbee commented on inflation and economic conditions, stating that the upcoming PCE report is unlikely to be as

BOC Macklem is speaking and says: 2026 monetary policy framework renewal should leave 2% inflation target unchanged “Now is not the time to question the anchor that has proven so effective,” says Macklem BOC’s focus will be on how it can improve the framework and its implementation to best address structural changes BOC wants to

Comments from Trump: Russia wants to do a deal Putin and Zelensky need to work together Thinking about merging the US postal service with Commerce Dept US will soon impose reciprocal tariffs I think that comment on Europe is another sign that Trump isn’t planning to use tariffs to raise (much) money but to extract

Baker Hughes rig count for the week shows: Oil rigs up 7 at 488 Natural gas rigs down -2 at 99 Total rigs +4 at 592 Crude oil is down -1 dollar anyone cents or -2.5% at $70.67. For the trading week, the high this week reached $73.11. The low was $70.16. Last Friday, the

Discover how to set and achieve your trading goals realistically The post How To Achieve Your Trading Goals appeared first on TradingwithRayner.

The US yields are trading at session lows with the 10-year yield now down -6.8 basis points. The 2 year is down -3.8 basis points. The fall in yields is being impacted by lower stocks (flight to safety) as Univ of Michigan consumer sentiment fell while inflation expectations moved higher. That is not a good

Pres. Trump is saying that is Isreal’s Netanyahu is “not torn” about the way forward in Gaza war. He “wants to go in” Asked if he prefers the 2nd phase of hostage release or go after Hamas, Trump said “I can go either way” Yesterday Hamas returned the remains of 2 children and a mother.

The AUDUSD moved higher yesterday as the USD weakened, bringing the pair within 5 pips of the 38.2% retracement level from the September 2024 high. Just above that, the falling 100-day moving average (MA) also acted as resistance. Sellers leaned into these levels, leading to a technical rotation lower. As the session progressed, US equity

Discover the ins and outs of what it really takes to develop consistency in trading The post How To Develop Consistency in Trading appeared first on TradingwithRayner.

US stock markets are under some heavy pressure today with the S&P 500 down 1.5% and the Russell 2000 down 2.5%. Some worries have been building for awhile and at the moment I don’t think it’s one single thing. It’s a collection of things in an over-leveraged, overcrowded market that’s led to some (overdue?) profit

The major US indices are closing sharply lower with the NASDAQ index down -2.20% and the Russell 2000 index down close to 3%. The final numbers are showing: Dow industrial average -748.63 points or -1.69% at 43428.02. For the trading week, the Dow fell -2.51% – the weakest since October 2024. S&P index fell -104.39

MUFG highlights the JPY as the best-performing G10 currency in 2025, driven by narrowing yield differentials and stronger-than-expected Japanese GDP growth. They maintain a short EUR/JPY position, targeting 150. Key Points: 1️⃣ JPY is the Best-Performing G10 Currency in 2025 JPY has strengthened by 4.8% vs. USD and 4.0% vs. EUR YTD. USD/JPY has fallen

The US dollar is broadly softer today and falling yields have contributed to that. Prior was 2.055% Bid to cover 2.48 vs 2.61 prior There hasn’t been much of a market reaction to this but yields have been creeping up from the lows in the last hour or so. That could put a floor under

USDJPY broke below its yearly low and February low at 150.943, accelerating downside momentum. The decline extended to 149.39, aligning with the upper boundary of a key swing area dating back to mid-August 2024 (149.08 – 149.39). This level also coincides with the 50% retracement of the September-to-January uptrend at 149.221, making it a crucial

The GBPUSD is trading to a new high and in the process is testing a key swing area up to 1.2670 and the 100-day MA at 1.2666. The high price just reached 1.2670. This is a key technical level for both buyers and sellers. Move above and stay above and traders will start to look

GEOPOLITICS: Ukraine’s Zelenskiy says Ukraine is ready for strong and useful agreement with US on investments and security. Ukraine offered the fastest and constructive way for this. Ukraine is ready for 24/7 work on this Trump and Zelenskiy have been squabbling with Trump calling Zelenskiy a dictator and saying Ukraine owes $500B. Zelenskiy says he

Morgan Stanley maintains its broader G10 FX outlook, favoring AUD and JPY as top performers, GBP resilience, and NZD gains trailing AUD. They see CAD and CHF as underperformers due to trade risks and funding flows. Key Points: 1️⃣ Top Performers: AUD & JPY AUD: Gains supported by positive local factors and global risk appetite.

Europe needs to step up for their own defense as a NATO partner Calls for allies to pay up by June NATO summit Zelensky needs to come back to the table on critical minerals Trump is obviously very frustrated with Zelensky right now It sounds like Zelensky has already tried to tone it down. This

US crude oil futures settled at $72.57, gaining $0.32 (+0.44%) on the day. Prices ranged between a low of $71.76 and a high of $73.10. On the hourly chart, today’s low found support near the 200-hour moving average, reinforcing its importance as a key level for buyers in the short term. The 100-hour moving average

Modestly restrictive policy is key to getting inflation back to target It will take time to get inflation to 2% Uncertainty is not yet a major restraint on the economy Gaining confidence that inflation is moving back towards target is key to support for more cuts Consumers and the labor market are healthy The Fed

As the trading day nears its close, USDCHF is testing the lower boundary of its multi-week trading range, which has been in place since mid-December. On the 4-hour chart, the pair formed a double top at the January high two weeks ago before reversing lower. Last week, the price found buyers at range support (0.8965

It’s not often that you see the United States cutting military spending. I don’t think too many people had that as a baseline scenario to pay for corporate tax cuts, but it would go a long way. Trump certainly didn’t campaign on it but he may be trying to keep the hawks happy by shifting

The price of Palantir is trading down $-15 or -12% at $109.48 after Pres. Trump ordered the Pentagon to cut budget by 8%. The price of Palantir reached a new all-time high of $125.41 in trading today before rotating to the downside. You can argue that the software that Palantir provides might be what the

Major stock indices are closing higher with the S&P index closing at another record level. Shares of Palantir did not fare as well as it tumbled -10.08% after present from said that the Pentagon should look to cut spending by 8%. With the price at the highs today up nearly 100% from the January low,

Expects very dampened and subdued business investment ahead This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

The S&P and NASDAQ indices are positive on the day and trading near session highs. S&P index is up 14.15 points or 0.23% at 6143.79. Yesterday index closed at a record high. Anything positive today would be a another record high NASDAQ index is up 40 points or 0.20% at 20081 The Dow industrial average

USDCAD fell earlier in the session, testing the 100-hour moving average (1.4195), a key short-term pivot. As noted earlier, holding above this level would indicate continued bullish momentum, while a break below would shift control back to sellers. The support held, leading to a rotation higher toward the next key resistance. The upside move pushed

Trump attacks Zelensky in a post, calls him a dictator FOMC Minutes: The vast majority of participants judged risks to mandate roughly balanced US January housing starts 1.366M versus 1.39M expected Fed’s Bostic: Did not expect inflation to go in a straight line Trump admin orders Pentagon to prepare for 8% budget cuts – report

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Difficult to factor all potential policy changes into the economic outlook The question now is whether January CPI was a bump in the road or a new trend The confidence around the 2025 outlook has diminished Some proposals could add to inflation, others could boost productivity or lower price pressures Many business leaders are optimistic

You’ll note that the People’s Bank of China Loan Prime Rate (LPR) setting is due today. Its not as relevant as it once was. I’ve posted on this before, but ICYMI. ps. The TL;DR on this (below) is that in June 2024 the PBoC designated the 7-day reverse repurchase (repo) rate as the primary policy

There were several reports over the long weekend suggesting that Intel could be split up and sold off. That has fresh traction with a report from Bloomberg that Silver Lake is near a deal for a stake in Intel’s Altera. Intel bought Altera in an all-cash deal in 2015 worth $16.7 billion. Currently, Intel’s market

One thing that’s been floating around in my head in a comment that President Trump said two weeks ago when he signed the fresh ‘maximum pressure’ executive order to halt Iran oil exports. “This is one that I’m torn about,” Trump told reporters in the Oval Office. “Everybody wants me sign it. I’ll do that.

NBC: Putin is not interested in a peace deal US February Empire Fed 5.7 vs -1.0 expected US NAHB housing market index for February 42 versus 47 estimate Canada CPI inflation YoY 1.9% vs 1.9% estimate. MoM 0.1% versus 0.1% estimate SF Fed Pres. Daly: US economy is in a good place Silver Lake is

US equities are under some mild selling pressure at the moment as the S&P 500 erased a small gain and is now down 10 points to 6104. A test of the 6100 barrier held and this looks like moderate back-and-fill price action. Zooming out, the daily chart shows consolidation just below the January record high.

The EURUSD has moved to a new low on the day after breaking below the rising 100 hour MA for the 2nd time today. The first saw the price move back up to retest a swing area and found sellers keeping the downside potential in play at least in the short term. Move below the

Six weeks ago it was a foregone conclusion that the Conservatives would win the 2025 election (it’s due in October or earlier) and Pierre Poilievre would become the next Prime Minister. Then three big things happened: Trudeau resigned Mark Carney ran for leadership Trump threatened Canadian sovereignty Trudeau was way past his best-before date and

USDCHF buyers defended key support near 0.8965 – 0.8974 last week, leading to a price stall and a subsequent rebound. Monday’s low also held near this area before a modest upside move, reinforcing its significance as a key support zone. Today, the pair broke above a higher swing area (0.8997 – 0.9011), with a corrective

Good morning, afternoon and evening all. Any charts, technical analysis, trade ideas, thoughts, views, ForexLive traders would like to share and discuss with fellow ForexLive traders, please do so: This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

BofA maintains a EUR/USD outlook of short-term weakness but a medium-term recovery. They do not expect parity, but the pair could drift lower before rallying to 1.10 by year-end—well above consensus. With EUR/USD already at their mid-year forecast of 1.05 ahead of schedule, their broader view remains intact: USD strength persists in Q1, but fades

The focus is on the Reserve Bank of New Zealand. A 50bp rate cut is widely expected although 25 can’t be entirely ruled out. I’ll pick 50. Earlier: NZIER RBNZ Shadow Board recommends OCR cut by 50bp on February 19 Newsquawk Week Ahead: RBA, RBNZ, FOMC Minutes, PMIs, Canada, UK and Japan inflation Reserve Bank

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The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) is set to cut interest rates for the first time in four years when it announces its decision later today at 10:30 PM ET. The benchmark rate has remained at 4.35% for 10 consecutive meetings, and with inflation easing, the RBA is now positioned to begin a rate-cutting cycle.

Trade Compass – NASDAQ Futures (February 17, 2025, and perhaps for this week, depending on how NQ price develops… Check out these key price levels on the map) NASDAQ Futures is currently trading at 22,230, sitting just slightly below today’s VWAP, which is around 22,233. At this moment, the market is neutral, and Trade Compass

The USDJPY has completed an up-and-down lap that took the pair from the close on Friday Feb 7 at 151.39 to a high last week at 154.79 and back down to the 151.39 level. The price is stalling at a swing area between 151.20 to 151.40 which is ahead of the double bottom from the

European indices closed higher to kick off the new trading week, with Germany’s DAX and Italy’s FTSE MIB leading the gains. The snapshot of the closing levels shows: German DAX, +1.26% to a new all-time high closing level France’s CAC, +0.03%. Highest close since May 2024. UK FTSE 100, +0.41% Spain’s Ibex, +0.47%. Highest closing

, Or about Europe without euro UK PM Starmer: Future of Ukraine is an existential issue for Europe It is pressing that they now share the burden. Europe must play its role There must be a US backstop He concludes by saying it is the only way to deter Russia. Meanwhlle Danish PM says: We

ECBs Holzmann: There is some probability of a March rate cut He adds that decisions in favor of more cuts getting harder The ECB has coverage from 4.4% to the current 2.9%. The ECB cut rates by 25 basis points on January 30. This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

Reuters is reporting that Taiwan is considering a $7– $10 billion arms purchase from the US. IN the Trump administration, the theme so far is defense is available for sale, not just given away to maintain democracy. This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

Trump outlines the recipricol tariff plan on X The “Big Balls” from the Trump presidency are all in the air: Cut out government waste and make government efficient from a technological perspective Get paid back for the defense of other nations Get countries to foot their own defense (BTW the US has some defense contractors

Federal Reserve Board Governor Christopher Waller is speaking on the economic outlook at an event in Australia before the University of New South Wales (UNSW) Macroeconomic Workshop There are widespread expectations of a 25bp rate cut from the RBA today. It is not a unanimous expectation., The meeting is live. RBA Poised to Reduce Cash

Good morning, afternoon and evening all. Any charts, technical analysis, trade ideas, thoughts, views, ForexLive traders would like to share and discuss with fellow ForexLive traders, please do so: This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

UPCOMING EVENTS: Monday: Japan GDP. Tuesday: RBA Policy Decision, UK Employment report, German ZEW, Canada CPI, US NAHB Housing Market Index, New Zealand PPI. Wednesday: Australia Wage Price Index, RBNZ Policy Decision, UK CPI, US Housing Starts and Building Permits, FOMC Minutes. Thursday: Australia Employment report, PBoC LPR, Canada PPI, US Jobless Claims. Friday: Australia/Japan/Eurozone/UK/US

As is usual for a Monday morning, market liquidity is very thin until it improves as more Asian centres come online … prices are liable to swing around, so take care out there. Indicative rates, a little change from late Friday, but not as much as we’ve come to expect over these past three weeks:

Mon: N/A Tue: RBA Announcement & SoMP, UK Jobs (Dec), Swedish CPIF (Jan), German ZEW (Feb), Canadian CPI (Jan), Japanese Trade Balance (Jan) Wed: FOMC Minutes, RBNZ Announcement, Bank of Indonesia Announcement, Chinese House Prices (Jan), UK CPI (Jan) Thu: PBoC LPR, Australian Jobs (Jan), EZ Consumer Confidence (Feb), Japanese CPI (Jan) Fri: UK Retail

A look at the data agenda ahead of US holidays today, Monday, February 17, 2025. The focus for the session is on Japan’s GDP data, for the final quarter of 2024: the expected 0.3% q/q rise is based on the recovery of private spending and exports wages and retail sales improved on exports, a positive

Trump comments crossing the wires, make of these what you will: says he is working very hard to make peace sees Zelinskiy involved Putin want to end it soon his meeting with Putin could be very soon This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

S&P misses on a record close. Nasdaq closes higher Key economic releases scheduled for next week’s trading. Fed Logan (voting in 26): Next couple of months of inflation will be pretty important Trump: Working on pipeline held up by New York to bring down energy prices TSMC is receptive to Intel factory deal Baker Hughes

Bloomberg is reporting that: Dell is near deal to sell $5B of AI servers to Musks xAI. The servers are to include Nvidia Blackwell chips Shares of Dell spike higher to $116.88 up over 5% on the day. The 38.2% retracement of the move down from the December high comes in at $117.80. Getting above

The NASDAQ index has moved back above the 20,000 level reaching a high of 20,006.26. The last time the price was above 20,000 was back on February 24. The high price that day reached 20,118.61 before rotating lower and closing below the 20,000 level at 19,954.30. At the same time, the S&P is back above

The next couple of points of inflation will be pretty important. Even if get better data on inflation, should be cautious on rates if labor market stays stronger, better inflation data doesn’t necessarily mean Fed can cut. Also focused on geopolitical, policy changes. We are taking our time to see how these affect economy. There

President Trump from says that he is working on pipeline held up by New York to bring down energy prices. 625 million acres of offshore that have been banned under Biden, will now be unmanned I don’t know but 625 million acres seems like a lot…..The all of US is 2.26B acres. Trump also signed

The weekly Baker Hughes rig count data showed small increases in oil and gas rigs: Oil rigs rose 1 to 481. Natural gas rose 1 to 101 Total rigs up 2 at 588 Crude oil is trading down -$0.58 and $70.72. For the trading week, the price of oil is down $-0.24 or -0.36% This

What classifies a AI supercomputer and it’s scope for managing the tax collectors, but my guess is that it has something to do with DOGE and Elon Musk initiative and if it levels the playing field, increasing revenues, eliminating tax fraud, etc. go for it. This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

TSMC is reportedly interested in an Intel factory deal. The company is weighing taking a controlling stake in partnership and considering operating US Inte factories after a request from US Pres. Trump. Other tech firms may also take a stake in possible deal. Intel is currently without a CEO after the former CEO Pat Gelsinger

Ukraine’s Zelenskiy is addiing more color after meeting with US VP Vance: Had a good meeting with the US VP Vance. US and Ukraine teams will continue to work on critical minerals deal. Ready to move as fast as possible towards real peace This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

Monday, February 16 10:30pm – AUD: Cash Rate (Forecast: 4.10%, Previous: 4.35%) AUD: RBA Monetary Policy Statement AUD: RBA Rate Statement Tuesday, February 18 2:00am – GBP: Claimant Count Change (Forecast: 10.0K, Previous: 0.7K) GBP: BOE Gov Bailey Speaks 8:30am – CAD: CPI m/m (Forecast: 0.0%, Previous: -0.4%) CAD: Median CPI y/y (Forecast: 2.4%, Previous:

Major US stock indices are closing mixed to end the trading week. The Dow industrial average closed lower. The S&P closed unchanged while the NASDAQ index closed higher. The final numbers are showing: Dow industrial average fell -165.35 points or -0.37% at 44546.08 S&P index felt -0.44 points or -0.01% at 6114.63. That was around

Good morning, afternoon and evening all. Any charts, technical analysis, trade ideas, thoughts, views, ForexLive traders would like to share and discuss with fellow ForexLive traders, please do so: This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

Trump announces reciprocal tariffs: Could begin to impose some tariffs “within weeks” US January PPI +3.5% vs +3.2% y/y expected US initial jobless claims 213K versus 215K estimate Trump expressed support in the call for a European peacekeeping force in Zelensky call US treasury sells $25 billion of 30 year bonds at a high yield

The market reaction to today’s ‘reciprocal’ tariff announcement from the White House revealed one of two things: Sell-the-fact (on the dollar) as this has been telegraphed for a week It’s a toothless threat aimed at getting negotiating leverage I’m biased towards the second explanation for the price action as we’ve continually seen tariff threats faded

Trump decides to go ahead with the Memorandum to introduce recipricol tariff plan. The USD moved higher and then it moved back down. The US stocks dipped a little and then rebounded. The US yields moved around as well but is now trading at session lows. The 10 year is down -11.5 basis points. In

None of the releases today are likely to move major FX around too much. This snapshot from the ForexLive economic data calendar, access it here. The times in the left-most column are GMT. The numbers in the right-most column are the ‘prior’ (previous month/quarter as the case may be) result. The number in the column

The AUDUSD is pushing the upper limit – well breaking through as I type . The next target comes in at 0.6331. Admittedly, the price has been in a volatile up and down range over the last 7 or so days. The low of the range comes in at 0.62348. The high at 0.63016. With

MUFG expects further JPY strength and downside risks for USD/JPY, driven by reversing global inflation trends, declining US yields, and BoJ rate hikes. While USD/CNY upside could exert short-term pressure on JPY, JPY is likely to weaken less than other G10 currencies due to its safe-haven status. Key Points: JPY Strength Driven by BoJ Policy

Meta shares were down as much of -$7.34 today. However, selling could be sustained and the price has pushed back to the upside. The current price is up $2.33 or 0.32% at $727.71. Looking at the daily chart, the price is tracking and skimming along the broken upside channel trendline. Each day is hard to

What’s left to say about gold at this point? It’s seemingly hit some kind of escape velocity as the momentum trade carries it daily despite varying risk trades, interest rate environments and tariff risks. It’s rallied nearly non-stop since the turn of the year. I tend to think that the catalyst was China restarting official

The major stock indices are closing higher, with the NASDAQ index leading the way with a gain of 1.5%. Meta shares closed higher for the 19th consecutive day after trading down over seven dollars at session lows. Shares of Meta shares are up some 18.6% over the streak and over 24% for the year. If

Credit Agricole acknowledges the bearish sentiment surrounding EUR/USD due to Eurozone underperformance, political risks, and US-EU trade tensions. However, they maintain a neutral EUR/USD outlook in the next three to six months, expecting a recovery toward 1.10 in the longer term. Key Points: Bearish EUR/USD Drivers in the Near Term: Cyclical Divergence → The Eurozone

The indications from the White House today suggest the Ukraine war is on the road to peace. I don’t find that to be a big surprise as Zelensky has talked about negotiations and Trump long campaigned for it. There have been reports it would be a multi-year process to remove Russian sanctions so the market

There is some mainstream optimism about DOGE but the savings and waste they’re finding is minuscule compared to the size of the deficit and one-third of spending is about to start going to interest costs. The Republican House proposed budget today has a deficit of $1.9 trillion and that’s after finding about $200 billion in

Shares of Tesla rebounded by 4% today after a string of selloffs uncluding a 6% drop yesterday. However in just the past few minutes, shares have given up some of today’s gain on a report from Fox’s Charlie Gasparino. Musk has told people he plans to spend the next four months working on DOGE; he’s

US stock indices close mixed on the day Reuters: Trump says will meet Putin probably in Saudi Arabia WTI crude settles nearly $2 lower on speculation the Russian crude will soon flow again US January Federal budget deficit $129.0B vs $95.5B expected The market is overlooking the most-important news of the day Trump is expected

The USDJPY stretched to a swing high of 154.79. Earlier today in a post, I wrote: The next key target lies in the 154.77–154.967 zone, where the 50% midpoint of the 2025 trading range sits at 154.897. This level, situated within the swing area (see red numbered circles), could act as a resistance zone where

More from Pres. Trump on call with Russia’s Putin: He and Putin ultimately expect to meet, probably in Saudi Arabia Call with Russia’s Putin lasted over one hour. Meeting with Putin will involve Saudi Crown Prince. Don’t think it’s practical for Ukraine to have NATO membership Haven’t committed to going to Ukraine. Putin says he

Given all the tariff uncertainty, I feel the need to highlight the first section of the United States constitution: The Congress shall have Power To lay and collect Taxes, Duties, Imposts and Excises, to pay the Debts and provide for the common Defence and general Welfare of the United States In all of Trump’s bluster

The major US stock indices are closing mixed on the day. The NASDAQ index squeaked out a small gain but erased a -228 point decline. The Dow industrial average and S&P index recovered off low levels, but still closed lower on the session. The final numbers are showing: Dow industrial average -225.03 points or -0.50%

Wednesday or Thursday, does it matter? They are on the way is the key takeaway. Trump’s proposed reciprocal tariffs would match the import duties that other countries impose on U.S. goods. The goal is to reduce trade imbalances and protect American industries by ensuring that if a country charges a tariff on U.S. products, the

A report is out saying: Russian military jet intrudes on Polish airspace With Gaza and Ukraine/Russia still not pointing toward peace, the geopolitical risks are heating up a bit The price of gold today did extend to a new all-time high at $2942.71 (up $35.16), but then tumbled to a low of $2881.89. That took

Good morning, afternoon and evening all. Any charts, technical analysis, trade ideas, thoughts, views, ForexLive traders would like to share and discuss with fellow ForexLive traders, please do so: This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

Japan finance minister Kato says will assess the impact of US tariffs on the Japanese economy and respond appropriately This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

I posted earlier on the not very promising outlook for exemptions from tariffs on Australian steel & aluminium: Trump trade adviser: Australia ‘killing aluminium market’ – blow to tariff exemption hope This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

The People’s Bank of China (PBOC), China’s central bank, is responsible for setting the daily midpoint of the yuan (also known as renminbi or RMB). The PBOC follows a managed floating exchange rate system that allows the value of the yuan to fluctuate within a certain range, called a “band,” around a central reference rate,

The risk mood is improving once again and the S&P 500 is higher in what’s been a choppy day. The comments from Powell were a non-factor as he reiterated a wait-and-see attitude that’s nearly unanimous at the Fed. I noted a comment from Citadel CEO Ken Griffin who said that Trump’s bombastic tariff rhetoric is

Bank of Japan Governor Ueda says will monitor the impact of US tariff and immigration policies very interested in the new US administration’s policies USD/JPY not moving too much, circa 153.42. Ueda speaking in parliament. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

A few points made by MUFG in a note, in summary. 1. BoJ Rate Hikes in September and December May Be Justified on Wages The Bank of Japan (BoJ) may find justification for interest rate hikes in both September and December if wage growth continues to show resilience, according to analysts at MUFG. With inflationary

USD/JPY has risen as more liquidity enters Asian morning trade. There is no fresh yen related news apart what has already been posted. Just crossing now: Japan industry minister Muto requested the US eclude Japan from steel and aluminium tariffs Current indications from Trump are ‘no exclusions’. Also, 2 year JGB yields are hitting their

Ueda to speak: Bank of Japan Governor Ueda will be speaking Wednesday, February 12, 2025 I don’t think he’ll be too dovish so he might stabilise the yen. We’ll see. USD/JPY has surged: Sheesh …. I popped up this hourly chart looking for some USD/JPY resistance. I am not seeing much until around 153.90, where

Crude oil futures are settling up one dollar at $73.32. The price rallied to one-week highs, supported by a weaker dollar and supply concerns stemming from U.S. sanctions on Russian crude production. Additional support came from Saudi Arabia, Iraq, and the UAE, which raised crude selling prices for Asian buyers in March. On the downside,

Powell: We do not need to be in a hurry to adjust policy Powell Q&A: Don’t see any reason to be in a hurry to lower rates ECB Schnabel: Uncertainty in trade has risen dramatically Fed’s Williams: US to grow by around 2% this year and next Trump sends Bessent to Ukraine, says the war

1700 GMT/1200 US Eastern time: Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta President Raphael Bostic a moderated discussion on the financial outlook for 2025 will examine the economic trends and uncertainties shaping the global economy. before the Atlanta chapter of the National Association of Corporate Directors This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

I wrote yesterday about the big seasonal adjustments in the January CPI report. Today, Nick Timiraos at the WSJ expands on the same theme, noting that the January report is particularly impactful because of price resets at the turn of the year and that we’ve had particularly-large jumps in January in the past three years.

0900 GMT / 0400 US Eastern time: Riksbank Deputy Governor Aino Bunge will visit London and will discuss the economic situation and current monetary policy at JP Morgan — Sveriges Riksbank is the central bank of Sweden, and it operates independently from the European Central Bank (ECB). Sweden is a member of the European Union

Bank of Japan Governor Ueda will be in the Japanese parliament This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

Jurrien Timmer is Director of Global Macro at Fidelity: trend remains up for US equities this cyclical bull market remains in place at 28 months old only 62% of stocks are above their 200-day moving average the chart below shows a series of negative divergences, the likes of which tend to happen in the more

Earlier from the head of the New York branch of the Federal Reserve, John Williams: Fed’s Williams: US to grow by around 2% this year and next He’s still going. If he has anything interesting to add I’ll post it up. He says he has no comment on policies set by elected officials. Says he

Major indices are closing with mixed results: Dow industrial average rose 123.24 points or 0.28% at 44593.65 S&P index rose 2.07 points or 0.03% at 6068.51 NASDAQ index fell -70.41 points or -0.36% at 19643.86 The small-cap Russell 2000 was also lower on the day with a decline of -12.23 points or -0.53% at 2275.70.

People’s Bank of China USD/CNY reference rate is due around 0115 GMT. The People’s Bank of China (PBOC), China’s central bank, is responsible for setting the daily midpoint of the yuan (also known as renminbi or RMB). The PBOC follows a managed floating exchange rate system that allows the value of the yuan to fluctuate

NVDA Stock Technical Analysis: Important Junction to Watch After a 19%+ Rally After a massive rally of over 19%, NVIDIA (NVDA) stock is at a crucial technical juncture. In this comprehensive technical analysis, we dive deep into the key chart patterns, pivot points, and potential scenarios using advanced technical tools—most notably, the modified Schiff pitchfork.

Australian Q4 2024 data: New housing finance +1.4% q/q There was a 4.2% q/q rise in owner occupier loans investor lending -2.9% q/q overall loan volumes -0.4% q/q (investors -4.5%, own-occupiers +2.2%) This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

The Wall Street Journal piece is gated: What We Know About Trump’s Reciprocal Tariffs Senior aide Peter Navarro is a major driver of the idea inside the White House In very brief: Trump’s team is working on reciprocal tariffs this week via executive action, bypassing Congress. Peter Navarro, a key Trump trade adviser, has long

Shares of Mark Zuckerberg’s Meta are on an all-time heater right now. They erased a morning selloff and are up for the 17th consecutive day in an incredible run that’s even more incredible given turmoil in other Mag 7 stocks. The market has come around to a few views: Zuckerberg will pivot the entire organization

Lawrence Summers is an American economist who served as the 71st United States Secretary of the Treasury from 1999 to 2001 director of the National Economic Council from 2009 to 2010 Summers is hated by the righties. It’d be nice to focus on debating his ideas rather than hearing endless ad hominem attacks. But, yeah,

Earlier previews of the PCI data due today are here: More on what to watch for in Wednesday’s US CPI report USDJPY Technical Analysis – Focus on the US CPI report Forecasts for US January inflation (CPI headline and core) from 17 investment banks Deutsche Bank forecasts softer headline US CPI, but core inflation to

Both NZDUSD and AUDUSD tested key resistance levels toward the end of the U.S. session. NZDUSD: The pair reached a high of 0.56597, aligning with the downward-sloping 100-hour moving average, which now serves as a key resistance level. A breakout above this level would signal further bullish momentum. On the downside, the 200-hour moving average

1500 GMT/1000 US Eastern time: Bank of England Policymaker and member of the Monetary Policy Committee, Megan Greene, gives a speech at the UK’s Institute of Directors Topic is “Impact of global developments on the UK economy” The discussion will cover: The various channels for spillover from global developments, including trade, foreign exchange and markets

ECB’s Schnabel says: Uncertainty in trade has risen dramatically With the tariffs on steel and aluminum and threats of tariffs on cars, pharmaceuticals, and chips, the risks are indeed higher and not in a good way. This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.