This is no surprise. WTI crude oil is up $1.50 to $74.02 today. This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

Canada appears to have misunderstood the language in Trump’s executive order We have noticed that Mexico is ‘serious’ about Trump’s executive order This order is about drugs, not trade Hassett continues to refer to the text of the executive order and drugs rather than trade. I take that as some kind of opening to end

German DAX futures -2.3% UK FTSE futures -1.4% Risk trades are getting hammered as Trump delivers on his tariffs threat against Canada and Mexico. The tariffs will go into effect on 4 February so there’s still a tiny sliver of hope for things to change. But in all likelihood, it seems like we’ll at least

Analysts at US-based investment bank Piper Sandler with the estimated negative hits to economies over a year of Trump’s tariffs: Canada economic growth (GDP) sees a minus 5% hit Mexico’s GDP a minus 8% US economy a minus 1% Senior Republican Senator Mitch McConnell spoke with US TV show ’60 Minutes’: says he objects to

On Monday, key events include the eurozone inflation data and the ISM manufacturing PMI from the U.S. On Tuesday, the U.S. will release the JOLTS job openings, while New Zealand will report employment change (q/q) and the unemployment rate. On Wednesday, the U.S. will publish the ADP non-farm employment change and the ISM services PMI.

It’s one of those days where the expiries board may not factor in too much. And even more so with a lack of significant expiries nearby the opening gap levels for dollar pairs. It’s all about emotions right now in markets and Trump’s tariffs are the ones causing waves and will be the bigger issue

The firm says their model estimates that if Trump’s tariffs are to be sustained, the impact will be large enough to throw the Canadian and Mexican economy into recession. That’s the pain trade that is getting markets all riled up to start the week. In case you missed it: White House says Trump has signed

Prior was 47.0 Key Findings: Output, new orders and employment all contract further Input price inflation hits two-year high Comment: Rob Dobson, Director at S&P Global Market Intelligence: “The start of 2025 has seen the downturn in the UK manufacturing sector continue. Factory output, new orders and employment all fell further in January as companies

Prior 45.1 It’s a decent improvement with manufacturing conditions seeing an uptick in France and Germany especially. That said, they’re still well in recession territory so I wouldn’t pin this as the turning point in the recovery just yet. Trump tariffs will be a key factor to be mindful of in the months ahead and

Prior was 42.5 Key findings: HCOB Germany Manufacturing PMI at 45.0 (Dec: 42.5). 8-month high. HCOB Germany Manufacturing PMI Output Index at 46.3 (Dec: 41.7). 8-month high. Prices charged fall at slower rate as costs come close to stabilising Comment: Commenting on the PMI data, Dr. Cyrus de la Rubia, Chief Economist at Hamburg Commercial

Tariffs, read from the bottom up for the chronology JP Morgan on Trump tariffs – reinforce their bullish view on gold Persistent Trump tariffs mean a minus 5% hit to Canada’s economy, Mexico -8%, US -1% AUD/USD dipped under 0.61 Ethereum implodes Bank of Canada will implement six consecutive quarter-point interest rate cuts Goldman Sachs

The risk off mood is still persisting but the dollar is at least off its earlier highs going into the session ahead. EUR/USD is down 1.1% to 1.0250 but that’s at least off the low earlier in the day of 1.0210. Similarly, USD/CAD is now only up 1.0% to 1.4675 and that is much lower

Fundamental Overview The USD is once again higher across the board as Trump followed through with his threats and imposed tariffs on Canada, Mexico and China on Saturday. We saw also other markets like the stock market opening with big gaps due to the negative macroeconomic implications of trade wars. There’s still some hope in

But we are not quite there yet Forecasts, services inflation, wage developments will navigate what will happen in April and beyond Notice the wording that he says “April and beyond”. In essence, a rate cut in March looks to be a given at this point. And traders are in agreement with that. The rates market

We have noticed that Mexico is “serious” about Trump’s executive order Canada appears to have misunderstood the language Trump has given Canada and Mexico an enormous amount of leverage Outcome is likely to be positive for everyone involved The language seems to dictate that there is scope for talks before the tariffs come into effect.

JP Morgan on the Trump tariff trade war: reinforces their bullish view on gold maintain their near-term bearish on base metals LME base metals prices are likely to face solid near-term bearish pressure on growth concerns macro risk-off USD strength Gold 5 minute candles: This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

Eurostoxx -2.1% Germany DAX -2.0% France CAC 40 -2.1% UK FTSE -1.3% Spain IBEX -1.6% Italy FTSE MIB -1.8% With Europe in the crosshairs soon enough, investors are certainly erring on the side of caution. Risk trades in general are being hammered today though. S&P 500 futures are down 1.7% with Nasdaq futures down 2.1%

Sees a couple more rate cuts after March as well We can allow for looser monetary policy We still have space left before reaching neutral rate Trump tariffs increase uncertainty This fits with what his colleague Kažimír is saying here as well as the current market pricing. For what’s left of the year now, traders

Summarising the main points of internset, on inflation and policy: Inflation Trends: Underlying CPI inflation expected to rise steadily, approaching the 2% target. Labour shortages contribute to persistent inflation through a positive output gap. Balanced upside and downside risks to prices, with potential stagflation if global trade frictions intensify. Monetary Policy Policy Adjustments: Support for

Domestic sight deposits CHF 432.9 bn vs CHF 433.3 bn prior There’s little change in Swiss sight deposits in the past week, so not much to really scrutinise here. This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

Headlines: Dollar well in charge in wild start to the new week ECB’s Villeroy: Trump tariffs is a very worrying development ECB’s Kažimír: Latest rate cut moves us closer to our destination ECB’s Šimkus backs another 25 bps rate cut in March Italy January preliminary CPI +1.5% vs +1.3% y/y prior Eurozone January preliminary CPI

The dollar is sitting over 1% higher against most major currencies to start the day as Trump duly delivered on his tariffs threat against Canada and Mexico. The additional 10% tariffs on China feels like a separate discussion at this stage as it sits in a different discourse. But for now, tariff man has shown

h/t to Vulpes in the comments here: Trump will be arriving back at the White House after golfing over the weekend (amongst declaring tariff war, fo course!). He’ll be speaking with press upon arrival. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

Coming up on Monday 03 February 2025: 1730 GMT / 1230 US Eastern time Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta President Raphael Bostic 2330 GMT / 1830 Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis President Alberto Musalem Musalem is speaking late, coverage of that one will be during Asia time on Tuesday. This article was written by

The Wall Street Journal (gated) report on: Beijing Prepares Its Opening Bid to Talk Trade With Trump The mish mash of ideas China has to negotiate with Trump, the Journal cites (according to unnamed sources), include: Going back to a previous trade deal from 2020 Phase One deal required China to increase purchases of American

Prior 41.9 The contraction in the manufacturing sector eased to start the new year but there’s still decline in both production and new orders. Things are still looking pessimistic, so it’s hard to say that the improvement here will lead to much in the months ahead. HCOB notes that: “France’s manufacturing industry remains in a

Prior +2.4% Core CPI +2.7% vs +2.6% y/y expected Prior +2.7% The headline reading accelerated slightly in part due to energy prices. But the core reading remains unchanged to December, so there’s not much to take away from the latest report. The disinflation process looks to have flatlined a little but at least it’s not

Goldman Sachs: potential tariff-driven decline in US natural gas imports from Canada is too small to significantly raise natural gas prices medium-run risks to oil prices skewed downside because persistent broad tariffs would weigh on global;l GDP and oil demand There are plenty of separate analyst departments at investment banks such as Goldman Sachs. This

Prior was 46.4 Key findings: Decline in production volumes loses momentum Sharp and accelerated decrease in order book volumes Firms continue to reduce charges despite rise in cost pressures Comment: Commenting on the PMI data, Jonas Feldhusen, Junior Economist at Hamburg Commercial Bank, said: “Operating conditions at Italy’s manufacturing companies remain bleak. The manufacturing Output

Trump tariffs will increase economic uncertainty There will likely be further rate cuts Europe will be in the crosshairs soon enough and they’re already preparing for it. Spain’s economy minister is out saying that the EU “must respond in a united way against the tariffs threat”. This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

Trump speaking with media says tariffs may causee short term pain more to come This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

I posted earlier that stocks had collapsed after Trump Tariff Tantrum War was launched: Early Monday – Trump tariffs slam Stocks, surge the USD I had the usual response from political morons on social media disputing it. ****heads should stick to their lane. Anyway, NZ markets giving the heads up on what to expect around

Prior 53.3 A stuttering start to the new year for Spain’s manufacturing sector. Both output and new orders saw softer gains while employment conditions also slumped lower in January. HCOB notes that: “The new year is off to a weak start. The momentum in Spain’s manufacturing sector has significantly slowed at the beginning of 2025.

Good morning, afternoon and evening all. Any charts, technical analysis, trade ideas, thoughts, views, ForexLive traders would like to share and discuss with fellow ForexLive traders, please do so: Just saw this on social media, spot on: This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

The talk of the day is going to be Trump’s tariff tantrum war launch: White House says Trump has signed order to impose tariffs on Canada, Mexico and China These have already slammed non-USD FX lower: Early Monday – Trump tariffs slam Stocks, surge the USD And, if you are in the US, go fill

Dow Jones / Market Watch have a pith article up on the market response to Trump’s tariff trade war. Dow futures tumble, oil surges after Trump tariffs end ‘self-delusion in markets’ Bolding is mine. The article is a quickie, pointing out that: investors … previously appeared to hold out hope that Trump was using the

The current market focus is on tariffs, so although we get a couple of top tier data points today, the market might ignore them altogether. In the European session we have the Eurozone CPI and the Final PMIs readings. In the American session, we have the US ISM Manufacturing PMI and the Fed SLOOS, but

Mike requested these in the comments given the big gap moves we have had already. Good idea. Justin will post more comprehensively on these late, but for now: EUR/USD: 1.0400 (EUR1.82bn), 1.0325 (EUR1.49bn), 1.0425 (EUR1.02bn USD/JPY: 155.00 (US$646mn) USD/CAD: 1.4400 (US$1.9bn), 1.4500 (US$852mn), 1.4300 (US$718mn) USD/CNY: 7.3000 (US$902.5mn), 7.3500 (US$606.2mn), 7.2500 (US$405mn) GBP/USD: 1.2650 (GBP427.7mn)

As is usual for a Monday morning, market liquidity is very thin until it improves as more Asian centres come online … prices are liable to swing around, so take care out there. This weekend saw Trump follow through on his threat to hit China, Canada and Mexico with tariffs: White House says Trump has

One thing is for sure it is that tariffs aren’t the solution. In Trump’s first term, the US trade and federal deficits grew despite his tariff measures. Considering Trump’s agenda, the only options are massive spending cuts or tax cuts to bolster the economy. The former is going to be politically impossible and with the

Australian building permits for December 2024: +0.7% m/m expected +1.0%, prior +0.8% +12.2% y/y, a very solid jump – note that this data can be volatile prior +3.2% more to come This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

Caixin China Manufacturing PMI for January 2025: A weak 50.1, but keeps its nose in expansion, fourth consecutive month of growth expected 50.5 prior 50.5 This manufacturing PMI comes in better than the official manufacturing PMI: China official PMI data for January 2025: Manufacturing 49.1 (expected 50.1) Recap – China’s Manufacturing Sector Contracts in January,

Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic & Social Research at the University of Melbourne. Privately surveyed inflation measure, lower in January than in December: +0.1% m/m prior +0.6% + 2.3% y/y prior +2.6% From the RBA website, the official cash and inflation rates: *** The Australian Melbourne Institute Inflation Gauge is an independent, monthly measure of

It’s turning into some kind of ‘Black Sunday’ in the ethereum market. Bitcoin is having a rough one as it’s down to $93K but ethereum is absolutely puking, falling 25% in minutes and down by a third from Friday level. So far the September lows are holding. Is this maybe a preview of what’s to

OPEC is set to hold its Joint OPEC/non-OPEC Ministerial Monitoring Committee (JMMC) meeting today to review current market conditions. No recommendations for broader policy changes are anticipated. Under the existing agreement, voluntary production cuts will continue through the end of the first quarter, while collective cuts are scheduled to remain in effect until the end

The Australian dollar is a casualty of the news over the weekend: Trump: Tariffs on Canada can be removed if ‘enough steps’ taken to reduce health crisis Since then: Goldman Sachs: We think Canada and Mexico tariffs are likely to be short-lived Trump and Dump Early Monday – Trump tariffs slam Stocks, surge the USD

Weasel words from Trump on his tariffs war saying Americans with a deceptive post on his social media outlet asking: “WILL THERE BE SOME PAIN? YES, MAYBE (AND MAYBE NOT!)” LOL. There is no ‘maybe’ about it. There will be plenty of pain for the people of the US. Gasoline prices will jump almost immediately,

Australian retail sales data for December 2024 and also Q4 2024: We also had ANZ job data, from that report: ANZ-Indeed Australian Job Ads has risen 0.5% in the past two months, and the series is up 1.3% from its August low. The stabilisation at a level 15.0% above the pre-pandemic average points to the

The indexes will open lower, of that is there is no doubt. The question is if we see a ‘gap fill’ retrace (I suspect there will be some of this) and whether it sustains (I suspect not). Regardless, if you are trading the ‘overnight’ do take care, there will be plenty of opportunity but liquidity

The news over the weekend: White House says Trump has signed order to impose tariffs on Canada, Mexico and China Set the stage for a stock and FX collapse: Early Monday – Trump tariffs slam Stocks, surge the USD Trump has promised economic pain for the US: Trump inflicts economic pain on Americans with his

What next? The main thing is Tuesday, which is the deadline for tariffs to actually go into effect. The fact that they’re not immediate suggests time to negotiate (though not much). Goldman Sachs is out with a note saying they expect the tariffs to be short-lived. There is also this note from the Retail Industry

Mon: Chinese New Year (Market Holiday – Mainland Closed, Hong Kong Open), BoJ Summary of Opinions, OPEC+ JMMC Meeting, Chinese Final Caixin Manufacturing PMI (Jan), EZ/UK/US Final Manufacturing PMI (Jan), EZ Flash CPI (Jan), US ISM Manufacturing PMI (Jan) Tue: Chinese New Year (Market Holiday – Mainland Closed, Hong Kong Open), Riksbank Minutes Wed: ECB

Executive order on Canada/Mexico/China come into effect on Feb 4 New Canada tariffs don’t apply to goods loaded onto vessels or in transit before Feb 4 Can remove new Canada tariffs if enough steps taken to reduce health crisis Canada is promising to announce retaliation later today after he speaks with Mexico’s President (whom we

Tariff to be on 25% of all Canadian imports except 10% on energy products 25% tariffs on all Mexican products (no exemptions) Retaliation clause calls for further action, likely increased tariffs Tariffs on China to include 10% tariffs on all China exports to US on top of existing tariffs Refers to International Emergency Economic Powers

CTV reports that Canada was notified earlier today that the US will place 25% tariffs on Canada and Mexico while China will be hit with 10% tariffs. Canadian energy will be tariffed at 10%. The tariffs will take effect on Tuesday and will stay in place until the fentanyl overdose “issue is sorted”. Canada’s cabinet

UPCOMING EVENTS: Monday: BoJ Summary of Opinions, Australia Retail Sales, China Caixin Manufacturing PMI, Switzerland Manufacturing PMI, Eurozone Flash CPI, Canada Manufacturing PMI, US ISM Manufacturing PMI. Tuesday: US Job Openings, New Zealand Employment report. Wednesday: Japan Average Cash Earnings, China Caixin Services PMI, Eurozone PPI, US ADP, Canada Services PMI, US ISM Services PMI.

If the latest Reuters report is to be believed, Trump’s ‘promise’ yesterday to enact immediate tariffs on Saturday was a bluff. However if the White House is to be believed, the tariffs will be announced on Saturday. The Reuters report still says Trump will announce tariffs but that they won’t begin until March 1 and

The S&P 500 is now down 30 points to 6047. One chart that stands out today after earnings is Apple. Shares opened 4% higher but they have turned around in a big way and are down 1.6% now. This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

It’s never a dull moment with Trump. Nothing can be done by China, Mexico and Canada right now to forestall tariffs We have big deficits and tariffs are something we’re doing We may increase tariffs Canada has treated the US very unfairly Not looking for concessions Will put tariffs on chips, oil and gas Oil

Trump expected to issue tariffs against Canada and Mexico starting March 1 White House: The report is false. The Feb 1 deadline still holds White House: Trump has not made up his mind on the tariff timeline for the European Union Mexico’s Sheinbaum: If the US imposes tariffs, this puts aside the USMCA trade pact

The White House says the Reuters report is “false”. The White House says Trump will implement 25% tariffs on Mexico and Canada plus 10% tariffs on China on Saturday as Trump has said many times. They said the tariffs “will be up for public consumption on Saturday” and that there is no update on exemptions.

Treasury yields have been creeping higher today as the White House re-iterated a threat to slap tariffs on Mexico, Canada and China. We will see how it shakes out but it’s a decent reversal given a benign PCE inflation report today. It’s increasingly clear how the Treasury market views tariffs: 1) They’re inflationary Some Fed

Easy come, easy go. A 50-point gain in the S&P 500 has been wiped out as the market wrestles with tariffs. The market has been on track to close near an all-time high. This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

Oil rigs up 7 to 479 Gas rigs down -1 to 98 Total rigs up 6 to 582 The price of crude oil is down $0.56 to $72.18. The price low today reached $71.94 which was the lowest level since January 2. The price is also below the 100 hour MA at $73.19. For the

After Canada and Mexico, it will be onto someone else. I suppose the big question is whether the promised 60% tariffs on China are coming and why they’ve been delayed thus far. This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

Direction of travel is clear, pace is pragmatic ECB should exercise agile pragmatism in pacing future cuts Rise in long-term yields limiting the easing of overall financial conditions This is some clear communication. The market sees about 75 bps in easing this year to 2.00%. This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

Canada is running a large fiscal deficit than a year ago and it got worse in November at -8.21 billion compared to -$4.01 billion a year earlier. All that said, Canada is running a much smaller fiscal deficit than the US and virtually every other developed country (as a percentage of GDP). Canada does have

Trump expected to issue tariffs against Canada and Mexico starting March 1, according to sources familiar with the plan. Trump expected to announce a process for countries to seek exemptions for certain imports, sources say. US administration official says Trump is reviewing tariff plans, which may allow some exemptions, but they will be “few and

The NZDUSD has broken above the 100 and 200 hour MAs now after the recent Trump headlines on tariffs. That came AFTER I finished this video. Nevertheless, the key technicals remain in play for today with a more bullish bias. Buyers are now more in control above the 200-hour MA at 0.5665 (now support). The

The data is here from earlier: Tokyo area January inflation data: Headline 3.4% y/y (expected 3%, prior 3%) Reacpping it: Core inflation in Tokyo climbed to 2.5% marking its fastest annual increase in nearly a year surpassing the Bank of Japan’s 2% target, fueling market speculation over further interest rate hikes this core consumer price

In the kickstart video, I take a look at the 3 major currency pairs – the EURUSD, USDJPY and GBPUSD – from a technical perspective to start the US trading day. The USD is largely unchanged as the final day of the week begins. THe biggest mover is the USDJPY which rose 0.34% despite better

Eurostoxx +0.2% Germany DAX +0.1% France CAC 40 +0.1% UK FTSE +0.2% Spain IBEX +0.1% Italy FTSE MIB +0.3% It’s been a hot start to the new year for European equities as stocks look to continue to feed off the ECB’s policy path. The mood music is also helped by Trump perhaps not going on

It’s an old meme, but a good one. The US dollar rallied earlier but has now given it all back and more. The new month begins on Monday. This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

Two Russian Tu-95 bombers, accompanied by a pair of fighter jets, conducted an eight-hour flight over the Sea of Okhotsk and the Sea of Japan on Thursday. The operation led Japan to scramble fighter jets after the bombers entered its air defense identification zone (ADIZ). The news on this was out late Thursday, Japan time,

Pres. Trump says that he will put a 25% tariff on Canada and Mexico citing fentanyl.. Trump assesses second presidential memorandum directing FAA to assess damage from DEI policies and ensure competence in hiring. The USDCAD has run higher on the news with the price spiking to a high of 1.4594. That took the price

President Trump yesterday announced plans to impose a 25% tariff on Canadian and Mexican imports starting February 1, though he suggested oil imports might be exempt. This announcement caused significant volatility in USDCAD. The pair surged from around 1.4400 to a high of 1.4594, marking new highs since 2020, before retracing below 1.45158, a key

It’s three months until we will get the first look at Q1 GDP. This week, the final GDPNow reading was revised down 0.9 pp on the day before the release. Following this indicator has some value in the final stretch before the GDP release but it’s way too early to follow it for Q1. This

Prior +2.6% HICP +2.8% vs +2.8% y/y expected Prior +2.8% This was expected given the German state readings earlier in the session. The Core inflation rate has also eased from 3.3% in December to 2.9% in January. Services inflation though remains sticky around 4.0%. This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at www.forexlive.com.

he AUDUSD has declined this week, weighed down by concerns over tariffs and diverging monetary policies. While the US Fed held rates steady, the RBA now has inflation within the 2%-3% target range which opens the door for potential policy easing. Technical Overview: The price remains below the 100-hour MA at 0.62397, keeping sellers in

Fundamental Overview The S&P 500 continues to maintain a positive outlook although it came under some pressure recently as the DeepSeek news weighed on overvalued AI stocks. The market has been making new highs ever since the last US inflation data as it marked the top in the repricing of rate cuts expectations and inflation

There is an interview with Bill Gates in Wired today and he says he ‘absolutely’ believes that artificial general intelligence is coming in ‘the next few years’. He also has a warning for what it will mean. Anybody who analogizes this to electricity, tractors, microcomputers, they don’t get it. This is not a productivity aid

The USDCHF experienced a sharp decline on Monday, driven by a stock market tumble led by Nvidia and broad USD selling. The pair on Monday, found support at 0.8965, the 50% retracement level of the December 2024 rally, and rebounded sharply off of that key support hold. Midweek trading was volatile, with the price fluctuating

In a competitive environment, consumers win. In response to DeepSeek, Wired reports that OpenAI is rushing out its o3-mini model and will make it free to everyone. “OpenAI is preparing to launch a new model today, ahead of its originally planned schedule. The model, o3-mini, will debut in both API and chat. Sources say it

Prior quarter 0.8% Employment cost index Q4 0.9% vs 0.9% estimate Employment cost YoY 3.8% for the quarter ending December 2024 vs 3.9% for year ending September 2024 Benefits 0.8% vs 0.8% last quarter. YoY rose 3.6% for 2024 vs 3.8% in 2023 Wages 0.9% vs 0.8% last quarter. YoY 3.8% vs 4.3% in 2023

Sector Overview Today’s stock market heatmap paints a vibrant picture with the technology sector standing out as a key performer. Apple (AAPL) has surged by an impressive 3.77%, illuminating the consumer electronics space and spearheading the tech rally. Meanwhile, Microsoft (MSFT) also contributed positively with a 0.69% increase, reinforcing strong investor sentiment in tech infrastructure.

Strong labour market in Japan: Inflation data out at the same time. All three rates are well above the Bank of Japan 2% target and argue for further tightening on the meetings ahead. Currently the prospect of a a May rate hike is firming in the betting. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at

Prior +1.3% HICP +1.8% vs +1.9% y/y expected Prior +1.8% There’s a good balance in the readings despite headline annual inflation nudging a little higher in January. Energy prices were seen up 2.8% year-on-year and that’s the large chunk of it, compared to the 1.2% year-on-year increase in December. Meanwhile, services inflation is seen slowing

Prior +0.7% UK house prices grew marginally to start the new year, though missing on estimates. It still reflects much resilience in the housing market though as Nationwide highlights that “affordability remains stretched by historic standards”. This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

About 10 months ago, the Canadian government announced it was raising capital gains taxes. However the government never passed the legislation and now the government is on the brink of falling. Normally, the tax agency implements changes based on announces and assumes the legislation will come. That has had them telling people they need to

Fundamental Overview After a brief divergence from real yields, gold caught up and extended the rally into a new all-time high helped by a benign FOMC decision. In fact, the Fed kept everything unchanged as expected and although Fed Chair Powell didn’t offer much in terms of forward guidance, he was optimistic on inflation and

January is typically the best month for gold in the past two decades and this year, the seasonal trend rings true again. The precious metal is up nearly 7% on the year as it continues its hot streak from 2024. There was a bit of a setback in November and December but gold buyers have

Inflation still elevated with upside risk Still expect inflation to moderate but need data to confirm that before more rate cuts Rate cuts still expected this year but future moves should be cautious and gradual with time to assess data Current policy in a good place for Fed to monitor data, be clear on economic

Fundamental Overview The Nasdaq continues to maintain a positive outlook although it came under some pressure recently as the DeepSeek news weighed on the tech heavy index. The market has been making new highs ever since the last US inflation data as it marked the top in the repricing of rate cuts expectations and inflation

Japanese PM Ishiba is speaking in the Diet: says Japan will continue to invest and create jobs in the US says will urge the US to provide a stable energy supply That second point is critical to Japan – the country is a big importer of energy. Speaking of the Japanese parliament, Ueda will be

I’m fine with rates coming down commensurate with inflation coming down Let’s slow down to feel our way to neutral I’m skeptical of just looking at the 12-month number on inflation The 3 and 6-month inflation numbers have been coming in ‘pretty solidly’ Mostly PCE today was ‘just what was expected’ but one-month core was

Core PCE (excluding food & energy): Prior was +2.8% Core m/m +0.2% vs +0.2% exp Unrounded core PCE +0.156% vs +0.1149% m/m prior PCE excluding food, energy and housing +0.2% m/m vs +0.1% m/m prior Headline PCE: Headline PCE +2.6% y/y vs +2.6% expected Deflator +0.3% m/m vs +0.3% expected Unrounded headline +0.2557% vs +0.128%

Similarly, they also bumped up their average forecast for next year to $73. The previous forecast for 2026 was $71 previously. Goldman Sachs says that they are looking for an average peak of around $80 in April to May this year. But the firm estimates that Brent oil could rise to as high as $93

For the full information on this post, why knowing the ranges is important etc, posted earlier: US inflation (PCE) data due Friday – here are the critical ranges to watch What is the distribution of forecasts for the US PCE? But, if you just want the numbers … Core PCE Price Index m/m 0.1% to

There is plenty of optimism about the US economy and the stock market in 2025, especially with the potential for a big corporate tax cut but the biggest source of optimism should be from the Fed. They have plenty of dry powder with rates at 4.25-4.50% and inflation is coming down. Core PCE y/y is

The Federal Reserve’s January policy statement omitted its previous reference to inflation making progress toward its target, adding a more hawkish tone. However, economists at Citi expect the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge, the 12-month PCE inflation rate, to decline in the coming months as the impact of sharp price increases from early 2024 fades. They

There are separate comments from Mexico’s economy minister: Tariffs would impact millions of American families, would be a ‘strategic error’ Tariffs would make fruit, vegetables, meat, beer, cars, household appliances and medical equipment more expensive in the USA We’ve heard all of these talking points before but today’s trade will very much be about tariffs

In the European session, the focus will be on the French and German CPI figures ahead of the Eurozone Flash CPI report next week. In the American session, the attention will switch to the Canadian GDP, the US Core PCE and the US Employment Cost Index. 13:30 GMT/08:30 ET – US December PCE Index The

The WSJ late yesterday cited some ‘Trump advisors’ who offered little in the way of insight but outlined some of the possible outcomes on the weekend to consider: the administration appears undecided on whether to impose tariffs on all imports from those countries administration officials are preparing to opt for more targeted measures instead Trump

Here is a graphic from the WSJ highlighting consensus expectations for today’s PCE report at a more-granular level. Beyond that, here is what Powell said on Wednesday: Estimates based on the Consumer Price Index and other data indicate that total PCE prices rose 2.6 percent over the 12 months ending in December and that, excluding the

The advance November estimate was -0.1% October reading was +0.3% December advanced reading +0.2% m/m There were broad based declines as 13 of 20 sectors contracted in November Goods-producing industries contracted 0.6% in November (vs +0.6% prior) Services-producing industries edged down 0.1% in November The transportation and warehousing sector declined 1.3% in November The November

FBI & White House investigating whether DeepSeek got Nvidia (NVDA) chips through Singapore This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

That’s one of the bolder forecasts I would say, even if being after the FOMC meeting decision this week. The Fed did alter their language in the statement a bit which may seem to look more “neutral”. However, Powell clarified that to say that they’re just “cleaning up” on their communique. Earlier this month, Barclays

0130 GMT / 0830 US Eastern time: Federal Reserve Board Governor Michelle Bowman gives brief remarks on the economy, and Perspectives on Mutual and Community Banks before the Northern New England CEO Summit co-hosted by the New Hampshire Bankers Association You’ll recall Bowman was the first dissent by a Fed Governor since 2005. Arguing against

Good morning, afternoon and evening all. Any charts, technical analysis, trade ideas, thoughts, views, ForexLive traders would like to share and discuss with fellow ForexLive traders, please do so: This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

Thinks that markets understand this monetary policy stance Our thinking has been communicated through markets He looks to be reaffirming the current market pricing. And traders are mostly only seeing the next rate hike debate to fall in place in July at the earliest. The OIS market estimates ~72% odds of a rate hike for

Stagflation risks are the main concern in Germany as we come into the new year. Amid the manufacturing recession and struggling economy, higher prices are also an issue that could weigh on consumption activity. We’ve already seen the economy contract in 2023 and 2025. Will it be a three-peat in 2025? If so, that will

The changes among dollar pairs show a bit of a lack of appetite, with the dollar mostly steadier across the board. It is seen up against the euro and yen but marginally lower against the antipodeans. USD/JPY nudged up a little close to 155.00 earlier but the pair is held back by its 100-hour moving

Dollar keeps steadier on the session, eyes PCE price data later ECB’s Müller: It is realistic for inflation to be near 2% by the middle of this year Bavaria January CPI +2.5% vs +3.0% y/y prior Germany January unemployment change 11k vs 14k expected What is the distribution of forecasts for the US PCE? European

Trump says China is going to end up paying a tariff as well Major US indices snap back from tariff news and closes higher Pres. Trump to put 25% tariff on Canada and Mexico The USDCAD spike higher Crude oil settled at $72.73 Despite GDP miss, underlying US growth still around 3% — CIBC MUFG:

Prior 10k Unemployment rate 6.2% vs 6.2% expected Prior 6.1% The jobless rate ticked a little higher with the German labour office noting that “underemployment and unemployment increased significantly at the start of the year, as is usual for this month”. This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

Rates are nearing the point where they won’t curb investment Meanwhile, his colleague Rehn is out saying that they are confident inflation will stabilise at the 2% target as projected. Adding that monetary policy will cease to be restrictive in the near future, likely during the spring or summer. This article was written by Justin

Whirlpool is a good barometer of the global economy as consumer spending on things like washers/dryers and other appliances correlates with confidence, interest rates and housing turnover. The later appears to be a particularly big problem for Whirlpool, which fell 16.5% today in the largest drop since 2020. Now much of that is just giving

US GDP numbers today showed an expansion of 2.3% q/q annualized in Q4, below consensus expectations of 2.6% and last quarter’s 3.1% increase. That puts annual growth at 2.5%, which is solid and matches the Fed’s expectations but it’s not blockbuster. The real takeaway is the consumer with spending up 4.2% q/q annualized, beating expectations

Core inflation in Tokyo climbed to 2.5%, its fastest annual increase in nearly a year Still no word from Trump on what he has decided on Canadian oil tariffs Federal Reserve Board Governor Michelle Bowman is speaking on Friday US inflation (PCE) data due Friday – here are the critical ranges to watch The Federal

Recent inflation driven mostly by cost-push factors Cost-push factors likely to dissipate in the middle to late this year BOJ to maintain accommodative policy to support price trend Mindful that FX moves have various effects on the economy But we do not conduct monetary policy targeting FX Well, he doesn’t sound like he’s in that

Why it’s important? The ranges of estimates are important in terms of market reaction because when the actual data deviates from the expectations, it creates a surprise effect. Another important input in market’s reaction is the distribution of forecasts. In fact, although we can have a range of estimates, most forecasts might be clustered on

Inflation holding well above the Bank of Japan 2% target rate, which will keep speculation of a near term BoJ rate hike on simmer: You’ll note, there were jobs data out at the same time. Showing, yet again, a strong result. *** Tokyo area inflation data. National-level CPI data for this month will follow in

Justin had the remarks from Bank of Japan (BOJ) Deputy Governor Ryozo Himino yesterday; BOJ’s Himino says will raise rates if economy, prices move in line with forecast I think they were significant. Himino seems to have become a ‘go to’ official to convey BoJ messaging. Himino reinforced the central bank’s commitment to an accommodative

The latest inflation figures from German states released around the same time: Hesse CPI +2.5% vs +2.4% y/y prior Brandenburg CPI +2.3% vs +2.4% y/y prior Saxony CPI +2.4% vs +3.2% y/y prior North Rhine Westphalia CPI +2.0% vs +2.5% y/y prior Baden Wuerttemberg CPI +2.3% vs +2.6% y/y prior At the balance, the readings

Lagarde spoke on Thursday, following the European Central Bank rate cut (read from the bottom up for the chronology): ECB may drop restrictive label on rate stance as soon as March – report European indices cheer ECB rate cut ECB sources: Policymakers expect a further cut in March followed by a deeper debate Lagarde Q&A:

Japan Retail sales A solid beat indeed for retail sales in December. More encouragement for the Bank of Japan. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

Prior -0.6% Death, taxes, and bad news from German economic data. This is a real bummer considering it is supposed to be the holiday period where we should see increased spending. Instead, this just adds further to the drop in retail sales in November. The only bright side is that overall retail sales was still

CIO of Global Fixed Income at BlackRock, Rick Rieder says that the Federal Reserve provided little clarity on the timing of future interest rate cuts in its latest policy statement and press conference on Wednesday. This is reinforcing expectations that rates will remain on hold for the coming months as policymakers assess incoming economic data.

There are a couple to take note of on the board for the day, as highlighted in bold. The first being for EUR/USD at the 1.0400 level. The expiries should act as a defensive layer for topside price action, at least for European trading before rolling off later. That being said, dollar dynamics remain firmly

Trump said on Thursday afternoon that he’d probably decide that evening on whether to apply his planned 25% tariff to Canadian oil. There hasn’t been any word on this. He may have decided but hasn’t said anything. Or he may not yet have decided. A tariff on oil from Canada would hit a major sector

German DAX futures +0.2% UK FTSE futures flat The better mood is reflected in US futures as well, with tech shares rebounding well after the stuttering start to the week amid the whole DeepSeek episode. S&P 500 futures are up 0.3% with Nasdaq futures up 0.7% at the moment. Meanwhile, Dow futures are up 0.2%

Tariff man again: This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

Bank of Japan Governor Ueda will be appearing in the Japanese parliament today, answering questions. His appearance is scheduled from 1435 Tokyo time this is 0535 GMT and 0135 US Eastern time Earlier from Japan, inflation data (for Tokyo) is still well above the bank’s target: Tokyo area January inflation data: Headline 3.4% y/y (expected

Credit growth in Australia for December 2024 Better data again. AUD/USD was shoved lower by the Trump tariff talk towards the end of the New York session: Market swings on headlines shows “how on edge everyone is around tariffs” AUD/USD is around 0.6209 as I post. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

Due on Friday at 0830 US Eastern time (0130 GMT), the Core PCE data is the focus. The Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) data is a key measure of inflation that tracks changes in the prices of goods and services purchased by consumers. It is reported monthly by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) and is

China’s Lunar New Year, marking the start of the Year of the Snake, fell on Wednesday, January 29. The official public holiday spans 8 days, from January 28 (New Year’s Eve) to February 4. During this period, many businesses and government offices close, allowing people to travel home for family reunions. Celebrations traditionally continue for

It was a wild last few minutes of the New York FX session with conflicting headlines on tariffs: I posted a bit of a recap summary here: USD/CAD spiked near a 5-year high as Trump said Canada and Mexico tariffs coming Saturday Reuters contacted Adam for his take: “Confusion reigned for a few minutes on

Japan Industrial Production for November 2024, preliminary reading: Outlooks: Manufacturers see January output at +1% m/m (previous forecast was +1.3%) see February output at +1.2% m/m This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

The AUD/USD has been choppy and non-trending over the past few days, but the overall control remains with the sellers. The bearish bias stems from the pair breaking below the 200-hour moving average earlier this week and consistently staying below it on both Tuesday and Wednesday (see green line on the chart). Recent Price Action:

The major US stock indices snapped back from the late-day tariff news on Canada and Mexico and is closing higher on the day . The final numbers are showing: Dow industrial rose 160.61 points or 0.38% at 44882.31 S&P index rose 31.86 points or 0.53% at 6071.17. NASDAQ index rose 49.43 points or 0.25% and

Congressional offices are being warned not to use DeepSeek, Axios with the report. “At this time, DeepSeek is under review by the CAO and is currently unauthorized for official House use,” the House’s Chief Administrative Officer said in a notice to congressional offices. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

The first item lists, NZ consumer sentiment, has come in at 96.0 in January, a big drop from December. *** Most focus for the session is on Tokyo area CPI data. Tokyo area inflation data is the focus for the session – this might give us a heads up what the Bank of Japan is

The Federal Reserve is likely to hold off on interest rate cuts in the first half of the year, as persistently elevated core inflation and a resilient U.S. economy in the first quarter keep policymakers cautious, according to analysts at TD. The potential economic impact of new tariffs under a Trump administration in the second

The major stock indices are moving higher as the clock ticks toward the close. Dow Industrial average is up 231.10 points or 0.60% at 44985.90 S&P is up 37 points or 0.62% at 6077.11 Nasdaq is up 78 points or 0.40% at 19711. Russell 2000 is up 34.78 points or 1.52% at 2317.91 Apple will

Tariff talking Trump is pushing around markets. Earlier: Pres. Trump to put 25% tariff on Canada and Mexico The USDCAD spike higher Trump hasn’t yet put tariffs on Mexico and Canada but repeats that he will Now this from him: China is going to end up paying a tariff as well We’re in the process

Some further encouraging inflation (admittedly at the producer level, not consumer) data for the Reserve Bank of Australia. Australia PPI (Q4) ++0.8% q/q expected +1.0%, prior +0.9% For the y/y +3.7% prior +3.9% This week we’ve seen all four of Australia’s biggest banks switch the forecasting a February RBA rate cut, NAB joined ANZ, CBA

Trump sent FX (and other) markets into a spin late on Thursday afternoon New York time with his remarks on tariffs: Trump says China is going to end up paying a tariff as well Trump says China is going to end up paying a tariff as well Trump announced that his 25% tariffs on Canada

Apple (AAPL) beat quarterly profit estimates Q1 2025 EPS 2.40 USD expected 2.35 Revenue 124.3bn USD expected 124.12bn iPhone sales and China revenue were weak iPhone revenue -0.8% y/y to 69.14bn (expected 71.04bn) China revenue -11% y/y at USD 18.51bn (expected 21.57bln) This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

The initial reports made it sound like he was signing the order at that moment. That’s not the case as he was signing some different orders (hence the confusion). Importantly, he also said oil would be excluded, according to CNBC. However a Reuters report said he would decide tonight whether to impose the tariffs on

The price of WTI crude oil futures are selling at $72.73. That is up $0.11 or 0.15%. Looking at the hourly chart below, the price has been trending below its 100 hour moving average (blue line on the chart below) at $73.45 currently. Staying below that level kept the sellers more in control. The price

Discover how to use economic news to your advantage to profit from the Forex markets The post The Definitive Guide To Economic News appeared first on TradingwithRayner.

The market has reacted in a hawkish way across the board after the FOMC decision. The statement removed a line saying ‘inflation has made progress’ and that’s given it more of a neutral message than the 46 bps priced into the market. The reaction has been a roughly 25 pip rally in the US dollar,

Three sources say policymakers expect a further cut in March Expect a broader, deeper debate after that, possibly implying an April pause Ahead of this report, the market was pricing in an 84% chance of an ECB cut in March so it’s not a surprise. The euro is little changed on the headline. This article

I find this thinking tough to square given ultra-low ECB rates for years ahead of the pandemic and no inflation. This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

The major European stock indices are closing higher once again. The German DAX has made another record as did the UK FTSE 100. Shares like the ECB rate call. The final numbers are showing: German DAX, up 0.41%. A new intraday high was made at 21,732.05. The closing level was at 21,727.21. France’s CAC +0.88%.

Prior CHF 5.42 billion; revised to CHF 6.11 billion The Swiss trade surplus fell in December as exports slumped by 11.3% while imports were seen down just 0.8% on the month. Swiss watch exports are marked down by 5.4% year-on-year, reflecting some added softness in that particular area this season compared to a year ago.

Sector Overview: The heatmap reveals a dynamic day in the stock market, with the technology sector showing significant divergence. On one hand, Microsoft (MSFT) is experiencing a sharp drop of 5.71%, largely due to concerns over software infrastructure. In contrast, Oracle (ORCL) enjoys a rise of 1.76%, likely benefiting from increased investments in cloud technology.

MUFG sees more upside for the JPY as the BoJ continues to deliver hawkish policy signals. Deputy Governor Himino’s speech reinforced expectations of two more rate hikes this year, pushing USD/JPY lower toward 154.00. Key Points: BoJ Hawkish Signals: Himino stated that policy rates need to rise further if the BoJ’s economic outlook is realized.

The ECB cut rates by 25 basis point as per expectations. The EURUSD was below the 38.2% retracement of the January trading range at 1.03968, and the 50% midpoint of the trading range going back to 2022. However, selling could not be sustained and when the price moved above those levels, the sellers turned buyers

The GBPUSD has moved to new highs and in the process moved above the 100 hour MA and the 50% of the move down from the December high. Both of those levels come in at 1.2453. As such, they represent a short-term target to stay above, to keep the buyers in control. If they can,

Fundamental Overview We haven’t got much action in the US Dollar following the FOMC Policy Decision as the central bank kept everything unchanged and Fed Chair Powell maintained a neutral stance as expected. He did sound optimistic which could see some weakness in the greenback but overall, they are waiting for more progress on inflation

Prior -14.5 Economic confidence 95.2 vs 94.1 expected Prior 93.7 Industrial confidence -12.9 vs -13.8 expected Prior -14.1 Services confidence 6.6 vs 6.0 expected Prior 5.9; revised to 5.7 Slight delay in the release by the source. Euro area economic sentiment edged higher to start the new year with a decent improvement in services sector

New Zealand Trade Balance for December month 2024 +219mn NZD, a handy sruplus prior -435mn Annual Trade deficit narrows to -7.67bn prior -8.26bn December Exports 6.84bn NZD prior 6.42bn Imports 6.62bn NZD … falling imports is not necessarily a sign of a strong economy prior 6.85bn The Reserve Bank of New Zealand is on a

Bloomberg was out a bit earlier (6 am ET) with a report that flew under the radar but it cites people familiar with negotiations. There are some interesting developments: Trump team is “not close at all to making a decision” on China tariffs The Trump team is still debating the fundamentals of tariff policy Along

Deutsche says that their month-end FX model is hinting at conflicting signals from a relative equity performance versus a seasonal performance standpoint. The firm says that rebalancing flows on the back of relative equity performance suggests mild USD buying against the euro. However, seasonality points towards broad USD selling – in particular on month-end itself

MPC was split on decision Core CPI in 2025 seen at 3.8% vs 3.9% prior CPI in 2025 seen at 3.9% vs 4.0% prior Risks to inflation outlook are assessed to the upside Under 10% universal US tariff scenario, sees rand depreciating to nearly 21 This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

Prior was +2.2% Index 74.2 vs 79.0 prior Year-over-year, pending transactions declined 5.0% West lagged at -10.3% m/m The index is at the lowest since August. Some housing numbers have been surprisingly strong lately but this is a sign that high mortgage rates are problematic. Activity fell more sharply in the high-priced regions of the

XM has officially launched its highly anticipated 1-year anniversary Demo Competitions, now live throughout February 2024. To mark this milestone, XM is offering a $100,000 prize pool and giving more traders the chance to win than ever before. The Demo Competitions are free to enter and provide a risk-free trading environment where participants can compete

Live feed here: This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

The USD/JPY moved lower during the early Asian session, breaking below a critical swing area between 154.77 and 154.967. It also dropped beneath the 38.2% retracement level of the December rally at 154.939, which shifted the bias further to the downside. During the European session, corrective price action encountered sellers near this resistance area. In

The USD/CHF has moved lower, testing key support near the 200-hour moving average (0.90609) and 100-hour moving average (0.90504). The price has stalled in this area, as traders cautiously lean against these levels as a risk zone. Key Levels to Watch: Support: The 200-hour and 100-hour moving averages at 0.90609 and 0.90504 are critical. Buyers

Eurostoxx +0.3% Germany DAX +0.2% France CAC 40 +0.2% UK FTSE -0.1% Spain IBEX +0.6% Italy FTSE MIB flat The DAX and IBEX continue to scale to fresh record levels to look to end the month on a high. Despite a setback at the start of this week, stocks have bounced back quite well in

There is some angst about natural gas everywhere at the moment. Germany is floating the idea of the resumption of Russian natural gas flows as part of a peace settlement. In the US, a cold January has led to a series of very large natural gas inventory drawdowns. Today’s announcement was a 321 BCF draw

Pres. Trump speaks to the crash where a Blackhawk helicopter ran into a commercial airline. Playing the blame game on DEI. HMMM. The video shows a Blackhawk helicopter running into the commercial aircraft. Why did the Army helicopter run into the plane? Why was it crossing a landing path? This article was written by Greg

This was a unanimous decision At this point in time we are still in restrictive territory We have not had a discussion on whether it’s time to stop cutting This is the direction we will take but the sequence will be informed by the data These comments strongly confirm a dovish bias and have trimmed

The central bank will be cutting rates by 25 bps today and will tee up another similar rate cut for March. I wouldn’t expect a clear pre-commitment to the latter but it will be something close to that at least. ECB president Lagarde should reaffirm that if things continue down this trajectory, then another rate

Appears a commercial jet struck a helicopter. A mid-air collision. Commercial Aircraft reportedly impacted a D.C. Police Helicopter. Reports are still sketchy at this stage. Emergency services responding. All takeoffs and landings at Ronald Reagan Airport have been halted. I’m seeing some video clips of the incident and it looks very nasty indeed. More: emergency

Labour market remains robust Conditions for recovery are in place Most underlying indicators have been developing towards a sustained return to our target After some fluctuation, inflation should return to our target Risks to economic growth remain to the downside We will be data dependent and are not pre-committing to any rate path The euro

The Trump administration plans to rescind the Biden rule that requires states to set declining targets for greenhouse gas emissions from vehicles. ICE vehicle makers in the US will benefit, EV makers not so much. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

ANZ New Zealand business survey Business confidence slips to 54.4, still a solid reading prior 62.3 Activity Outlook, same, 45.8 prior 50.3 ANZ remarks on the results: Past own activity, (the best GDP indicator) was stable close to zero, while past employment continued to lift, though at -7 it remains in contraction. Pricing and cost

Nissan Motor is offering voluntary buyouts to workers at three of its U.S. factories as part of its plan to reduce production by approximately 25% due to weak sales, according to a report in Japanese media, Nikkei. The affected employees include hourly workers at assembly plants in Smyrna, Tennessee, and Canton, Mississippi, as well as

The Reserve Bank of Australia January 2025 Bulletin contains a handy explainer on how: Changes to monetary policy affect interest rates in the economy. Changes to interest rates affect economic activity and inflation. Worth a read if this is new to you: The Transmission of Monetary Policy This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at

BOJ continues to support the economy with accommodative monetary policy environment Level of neutral rate is determined by various factors, not just demographics There is still some distance before crossing over to positive real interest rates If there is an economic shock or if various deflationary factors remain, it might be necessary to keep real

Prior +0.1% As a whole last year, the German economy is estimated to have contracted by 0.2%. That follows from the 0.1% contraction in 2023. And if this continues in 2025, it will mark the first time since the reunification in 1990 that Germany suffers three straight years of declining GDP. This article was written

Geopolitical uncertainty is fuelling a fresh record high in gold. It’s up $34 today to $2791, breaking the November high by $1. At the start of December I touted the seasonal trend of strength in gold in Dec-Jan (as I always do). Once again this year it delivered: I have written about gold seasonal strength

We did some ‘language cleanup’ in the opening statement, removal of reference on ‘progress towards inflation goal’ was not meant to send a signal – Fed Powell The comment is sending the USD back down. Stock indices are chipping away at the declines. Dow -0.21% S&P -0.44% Nasdaq -0.58% US yields are still higher but

Prior +2.8% HICP +2.9% vs +2.8% y/y expected Prior +2.8% The good news at least is that core annual inflation is seen moderating to 2.4%, down from 2.6% in December. This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

Headlines: ECB set to wrap up the central bank bonanza this month Weekly update on interest rate expectations The bond market is in focus as yields edge lower A clash in month-end FX rebalancing signals this month – Deutsche BOJ’s Himino says will raise rates if economy, prices move in line with forecast Eurozone January

The EURUSD whipped around yesterday, closing the day modestly lower after the FOMC kept rates unchanged. The USDJPY also traded higher and lower, and true to the pattern, the GBPUSD has moved up and down in volatile trading as the market concluded the FOMC is steady for now. Today, the USD is mixed in those

The USD/CAD attempted to move higher yesterday following rate decisions by the Bank of Canada and the US Federal Reserve. The price briefly broke above the upper boundary of a key consolidation zone, referred to as the “red box” (see chart), which has defined most of the trading range since December 17. This boundary is

Prior week initial jobless claims 207K vs 220K estimate 4 week moving average 212.50K vs 213.5K last week Continuing claims 1.858K vs 1.890M estimate 4- week moving average 1.872Mvs 1.866M last week The initial claims is for the survey week for BLS jobs report to be released the first week of February. The survey week

Rate cuts by year-end Fed: 48 bps (80% probability of no change at the upcoming meeting) ECB: 93 bps (94% probability of rate cut at today’s decision) BoE: 71 bps (85% probability of rate cut at the upcoming meeting) BoC: 40 bps (64% probability of no change at the upcoming meeting) RBA: 86 bps (74%

The changed language of most note in the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) statement. On inflation, this: “Inflation has made progress toward the Committee’s 2 percent objective but remains somewhat elevated” was changed to “Inflation remains somewhat elevated” ie, ‘made progress’ was dropped. This is key. Goldman Sachs picked up on it: Goldman Sachs says

Prior decision Deposit facility rate 2.75% vs 2.75% expected Prior 3.00% Main refinancing rate 2.90% vs 2.90% expected Prior 3.15% Marginal lending facility 3.15% Prior 3.40% The disinflation process is well on track Inflation has continued to develop broadly in line with staff projections Inflation is set to return to 2% target in the course

Final Q3 GDP was 3.1% annualized Final Q2 reading was +3.0% annualized Consumer spending: +4.2% vs +2.8% prior Durable goods: vs +7.6% prior GDP final sales (excluding inventories): 3.2% vs 3.3% prior GDP price index (GDP deflator): 2.2% vs 2.4% expected Core PCE (excluding food & energy): 2.5% vs 2.2% prior PCE price index: 2.3%

Prior +0.4% On average in 2024, it is estimated that the French economy grew by 1.1%. Here’s the breakdown of the quarterly situation for last year: This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

I don’t expect any new information on current monetary policy from the RBA today. The Bank publish their ‘Bulletin’. The Bulletin is published quarterly. It contains articles various articles on the economy, policy, and wider topics. None of the other items are likely to move around major FX too much upon release. This snapshot from

The consensus on today’s US Q4 GDP report is for 2.6% q/q annualized growth in a slowdown from 3.1% in Q3. Risks are to the downside. That’s because yesterday two critical inputs for the report were released and both missed badly. Wholesale inventories were lower by 0.5% after a 0.2% decline in November and the

Prior +0.9% Looking at the breakdown, there were increases in the prices for consumer goods (+0.5%), intermediate goods (+0.1%), capital goods (+0.2%), durable consumer goods (+0.5%), and agricultural goods (+0.3%). Import prices for energy also rose by 0.3% on the month and if you strip that out, total import prices were seen up 0.3% in

Its no secret that Trump wants the Fed to cut rates. At the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting today the Committee left rates on hold. Trump is complaining. On his own social media outlet: This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

Prior 99.5; revised to 99.6 This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

Japan expects an increase in debt-service costs by 25% by 2028. Japan expects its annual debt-servicing costs to rise to almost $230 billion over the next four years This, of course, is due to the Bank of Japan raising rates. This news was around a week ago but its catching some headlines today. Its obvious

Prior 65.72k Net consumer credit £1.0 billion Prior £0.9 billion Net borrowing of mortgage debt by individuals rose to £3.6 billion in December, up by £1.0 billion following a decrease in net borrowing of £0.9 billion in November. Of note, the annual growth rate for net mortgage lending was seen up by 1.5% to end

Tech shares are the ones looking to bounce back again with S&P 500 futures up 0.3% and Nasdaq futures up 0.5% currently. It’s still early in the day of course and Wall Street tends to have its own take on things later on. It’s been a testing week for Nvidia especially after the Monday slide.

Fundamental Overview The Russell 2000 continues to maintain a positive outlook while even outperforming the major indices given less exposure to overvalued tech stocks. The market has been making new highs ever since the last US inflation data as it marked the top in the repricing of rate cuts expectations and inflation fears. The Fed

Prior +0.0% GDP Y/Y +0.5% vs +0.6% y/y expected Prior +0.4% The quarter on quarter change is the result of a decrease of value added in both agriculture, forestry and fishing and in services, whereas the contribution of industry is positive. From the demand side, there is a negative contribution by the domestic component (gross

The Fed held course on Wednesday: Forexlive Americas FX news wrap 29 Jan. Fed remains steady. Analysts at Goldman Sachs are still expecting further FOMC rate cuts later this year: easing has not yet completed FOMC is waiting to see further progress on inflation falling Dates for the year: This article was written by Eamonn

After the FOMC meeting decision yesterday, 10-year yields in the US raced to a high of 4.59% but that didn’t last long. We’re now seeing yields fall back quickly to under 4.51% again. And that is starting to invite a test of a key neckline on the chart, as seen above. Bonds were offered quite

Prior 6.3%; revised to 6.2% It is a slight increase in the jobless rate to wrap up the year but still lower than where it was in January at least i.e. 6.5%. This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

The National Australia Bank were forecasting a May rate cut from the Reserve Bank of Australia. Have now brought their forecast forward to the February RBA meeting. The current RBA cash rate is 4.35%. Forecasts now for 4.1% are priced around 80%. I posted earlier on the other three big Australian banks and their forecast

Prior +0.4% GDP Q4 Y/Y +0.9% vs +1.0% expected Prior +0.9% Among the Member States for which data are available for the fourth quarter of 2024, Portugal (+1.5%) recorded the highest increase compared to the previous quarter, followed by Lithuania (+0.9%) and Spain (+0.8%). Declines were recorded in Ireland (-1.3%), Germany (-0.2%) and France (-0.1%).

Japan expects an increase in debt-service costs by 25% by 2028 Trump says he has been briefed on ‘terrible accident’ – helicoper and plane collide RBA looks at how changes in monetary policy flow through to the economy, impact inflation Reserve Bank of Australia Brad Jones, Assistant Governor (Financial System) speaking soon Goldman Sachs still

The post with the breaking news is here: If you hear of an incident at DCA airport in Washington – there is an aircraft down Trump has issued a statement: “I have been fully briefed on the terrible accident which just took place at Reagan National Airport. May God Bless their souls. Thank you for

We have lots of data today on the agenda although the majority of it is unlikely to change anything in terms of market pricing. In the European session the highlights include the Spain Flash CPI and the Eurozone Q4 GDP and Unemployment Rate. In the American session, the focus will switch to the ECB policy

German DAX futures +0.1% UK FTSE futures +0.1% The DAX continues to run at record highs after a stuttering start to the week for stocks in general. The focus might be on Nvidia and tech shares but European indices are enjoying a good spell this week, besides French stocks. S&P 500 futures are still seen

A Wall Street Journal reported with the info on Goldman Sachs comments: “we remain comfortable with our standing forecast that the FOMC will deliver two more 25bp cuts in June and December this year and one more in 2026” *** Earlier: Goldman Sachs CEO sees narrow range of 2025 Federal Reserve rates amid inflation concerns

Goldman Sachs CEO David Solomon expects the Federal Reserve to keep interest rates within a narrow range in 2025 unless inflation takes a significant turn. Speaking on the firm’s podcast, Solomon noted that while durable goods inflation has been soft, rising costs in services and food remain key challenges. He emphasized that these factors will

The response to a Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) on hold has been yen buying in Asia morning trade: There is no fresh news of note. Although I did posit the potential for a lower USD/JPY here earlier: Arrangements for a meeting between Trump and Japan PM Ishiba close to being finalised I wasn’t really

Jones speaking soon: Sorrento is a beachside resort town in Australia. Its summer in Australia. You do the math. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

Plans are being finalised for a meeting between Japan’s Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba and President Trump. The proposed venue will be Washington On February 7 — I don’t expect current matters to feature prominently, but if they do, both sides would like to see a lower USD/JPY. Trump wants a softer dollar Ishiba wants a

US yields are moving back toward unchanged after moving up about three – four basis points out the curve. The two-year yield is still up around 2.3 basis points at 4.227%, but off its high of 4.263%.. 2-year yield 4.227%, +2.3 basis points 5-year yield 4.353%, +0.9 basis points. The high yield was 4.398% 10

The biggest company in the world (or at least it was on Friday) is bouncing around like a small-cap stock. It rebounded huge yesterday but is under pressure again today. Perhaps the tell yesterday was that it rallied far more than other beaten-up semiconductor stocks. Also weighing on Tesla is a report that the Trump

Microsoft (MSFT) Q2 2025 EPS: $3.23 (BEAT; exp. $3.11) Revenue: $69.6B (BEAT; exp. $68.78B) Azure and Other Cloud Services Revenue Growth: +31% (MISS; exp. +31.8% – Down from 33% last quarter) Segment Highlights: Intelligent Cloud: $25.5B (MISS; exp. $25.74B) More Personal Computing: $14.7B (BEAT; exp. $14.13B) Productivity and Business Processes: $28.9B (BEAT ; exp. $28.85B)

At 0600 GMT / 0100 US Eastern time Bank of Japan Deputy Governor Ryozo Himino will be speaking. At a seminar hosted by Japan’s Hitotsubashi University. I don’t have a topic for this. As an aside, the last time Himino spoke publicly on policy was a couple of weeks prior to the Bank’s January 24

January 29, 2025 Federal Reserve issues FOMC statement For release at 2:00 p.m. EST Share Recent indicators suggest that economic activity has continued to expand at a solid pace. The unemployment rate has stabilized at a low level in recent months, and labor market conditions remain solid. Inflation remains somewhat elevated. The Committee seeks to

Bitcoin Futures Price Prediction: Key Levels and Trade Setup for Today (January 30, 2025) Current Market Context Bitcoin futures are currently trading at $106,285, approaching critical levels that could dictate the next significant move. While the market appears to be in a range, the reward-to-risk ratio currently favors the downside. For traders looking to navigate

The FOMC meeting decision was as expected and the Fed made no new approaches to their next decision in March as well. Traders are now seeing the next rate cut to be for June with ~47 bps of rate cuts priced in for the year as a whole. The pricing here definitely reflects a step

December 18, 2024 January 29, 2025 Federal Reserve issues FOMC statement For release at 2:00 p.m. EST Share Share Recent indicators suggest that economic activity has continued to expand at a solid pace. Since earlierThe unemployment rate has stabilized at a low level in the year, recent months, and labor market conditions have generally eased,

Bank of Canada Governor Macklem with some comments after the Bank cut rates again this week: Forexlive Americas FX news wrap 29 Jan. The BOC cuts rates by 25 bps. Fed remains steady. Macklem: low inflation has been restored the threat of tariffs is having a bigger impact on the Canadiaon dollar than is the

Reserve Bank of Australia interest rate forecast following the inflation data yesterday: ForexLive Asia-Pacific FX news wrap: AUD dropped after CPI inflation data ANZ is projectiing a 25 basis point reduction in the official cash rate at the February 17-18 RBA meeting. “The latest trimmed mean inflation print will be enough for the RBA to

Here is the ranking of things that matter to the market right now: 1) Tariff news 2) AI news …. …. 3) The FOMC I don’t expect today’s rate announcement to be a big market mover but, if anything, there are risks that Powell pivots more-strongly to neutral. That could lead to rising Treasury yields

Canadian Foreign Minister Joly says discussed the flow of fentanyl and precursors with US Secretary of State Rubio Says she is ‘cautiously optimistic’ about the talks related to tariffs. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

Some back-and-forth on the Fed decision but not much change in markets on net Yields are back near unchanged…(at least out the curve) Powell clarifies inflation comment change in language, and the dollar dips Powell Q&A: My assessment that rates were ‘meaningfully restrictive’ hasn’t changed Powell opening statement: The economy is strong A comparison of

The short-term EUR/USD chart highlights the broader move in the US dollar over the FOMC statement. The dollar rose initially as the statement removed a reference to progress on inflation. The thinking was that the Fed could be signaling it’s at neutral. Powell quashed that notion as he said they’re still restrictive and that they

Good morning, afternoon and evening all. Any charts, technical analysis, trade ideas, thoughts, views, ForexLive traders would like to share and discuss with fellow ForexLive traders, please do so: This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

Australian terms of trade data for Q4 2024: Australia Import Price Index +0.2% q/q expected +1.5%, prior -1.4% for the y/y, -1.9% & Export Price Index +3.6% q/q expected +2.5%, prior –4.3% for the y/y -8.6% Resources higher (exports). This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

China’s Lunar New Year, marking the start of the Year of the Snake, fell on Wednesday, January 29. The official public holiday spans 8 days, from January 28 (New Year’s Eve) to February 4. During this period, many businesses and government offices close, allowing people to travel home for family reunions. Celebrations traditionally continue for

There was no expectation of a cut today The Fed had cut at the prior three meetings for a total of 100 bps The reference in the prior statement about inflation making progress towards 2% goal is removed The Committee judges that the risks to achieving its employment and inflation goals are roughly in balance

I have had no contact with the President Policy is less-restrictive than when we began cutting We don’t need to see further weakening of labor market to achieve our inflation goal Assessment on policy hasn’t changed, policy is well-positioned We did some ‘language cleanup’ in the opening statement, removal of reference on ‘progress towards inflation

Inflation has moved much closer to our longer-run goal, though it remains somewhat elevated 2024 GDP looks to have risen above 2% Investment in equipment appears to have slowed late in the year but was solid in 2024 Labor market conditions remain solid Unemployment has stabilized, remains low Conditions in the labor market are broadly

Microsoft Last quarter, revenue was $65.59B (up 16% YoY), beating expectations by 1.6%. Revenue Expectation: Analysts expect revenue this quarter to grow 10.9% YoY to $68.87B, compared to a 17.6% increase in the same quarter last year. Earnings Expectations: Adjusted EPS is expected at $3.11 per share. That is down from last quarters $3.30, but

The FOMC is a bit more hawkish with the inflation shift. More specifically, the Fed said: December: “Inflation has made progress toward the Committee’s 2 percent objective but remains somewhat elevated.” January: “Inflation remains somewhat elevated.” Key Change: December: Acknowledged progress toward the inflation target. January: Removed reference to progress, focusing instead on inflation remaining

I always find it’s useful to re-read the prior Fed statement before a new one is issued. The update will come at 2 pm ET. Recent indicators suggest that economic activity has continued to expand at a solid pace. Since earlier in the year, labor market conditions have generally eased, and the unemployment rate has

The AUDUSD felt lower yesterday and for the most part stay below the 200 hour moving average (green line currently at 0.62597). In the early Asian session, the price sniffed that moving average, but still remained below. The Austrian CPI came lower than expectations: Headline CPI: +2.4% y/y (expected 2.5%, prior 2.8%). Headline CPI: +0.2%

US must be able to sell American autos in Europe There is big difference between this and what Trump has been saying about Mexico/Canada, at least lately. This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

Prior month -102.9 billion Advance goods trade balance -122.1Bvs -105.6B Exports of goods for December were $167.5 billion, $7.8 billion less than November exports Imports of goods for December were $289.6 billion, $10.8 billion more than November imports. The deficiit is near the the 2022 low which i believe was influece by port strike. This

We have delayed Basel beacuse of US uncertainty, there is a competition issue here This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

On the 14th of January, iFX EXPO Dubai 2025, MENA’s #1 online trading industry event, kicked-off its remarkable 2+ days of FX & Fintech showcases. Global industry leaders gathered to build lasting relationships, find the right business partner, discover innovative products and services, and expand their online trading knowledge through educational panels. iFX EXPO Dubai

Trump’s supposed reasons for the tariffs are drugs and illegal immigration yet Mexico doesn’t seem worried and Canada is. Again here, Claudia Sheinbaum is brushing off tariffs. Trump also said that they were ‘doing better’ with Mexico, despite Mexico turning away a deportation flight on the weekend. I believe that the real reason for tariffs

The USDCAD buyers are making a play in the early NA trading and ahead of the BOC rate decision. That upside momentum has taken the price above the “red box” that I have outlined as a key range to break and stay broken to either increase the bullish or the bearish momentum. The break today

Lutnick says he prefers “across-the-board” applied to countries rather than aiming at specific sectors or products “We can use tariffs to create reciprocity, fairness and respect,” he said Canada is treating US farmers ‘horribly’ This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

Axios with the report: The White House will send out a memo Tuesday afternoon offering to pay federal workers who don’t want to return to the office through Sept. 30, as long as they resign by Feb. 6, a White House official tells Axios. The government is urging federal workers to return to the office,

Crude oil inventory +3.463M versus 3.194 million estimate Gasoline inventory +2.957MM versus 1.348 million estimate Distillates inventory -4.994M versus -2.324 million estimate Cushing +0.326Mvs. last week -0.148 million in other data: refining utilization -2.4% versus -1.0% last week ( The private data released late yesterday showed: This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

Eurostoxx +0.4% Germany DAX +0.4% France CAC 40 -0.3% UK FTSE -0.1% Spain IBEX +0.5% Italy FTSE MIB +0.3% After the Monday’s rout, the mood continued to improve with stocks erasing most of the losses. European stocks have been outperforming its US peers not only because of less overvaluation but also because lower AI costs

Commerce Secretary nominee Lutnick: If Canada addresses the flow of fentanyl into the US, there will be no tariffs. There you have it. THe USDCAD has reached new lows to 1.4432 and moves away from swing area on the topside between 1.4448 and 1.4466. On the downside the 100 and 200-hour moving averages comes in

The major European stock indices are mostly closing higher. The excepttion in the France CAC which fell modestly in trading today. The German Dax closed a a new all-time record and made a new intraday high at 21671.59.. For the new year, the index is up 8.61% The UK FTSE 100 closed just below its

Fundamental Overview The USD got boosted once again by negative tariffs news yesterday as Bessent talked about universal tariffs starting at 2.5% and gradually increasing by the same amount every month, which eventually could reach 20%. Trump later doubled down on that saying that he wants tariffs much bigger than 2.5%. The tariffs risk has

A tweet (x) by WSJ Timiraos pegs the core PCE at up 0.18%. That would put the 3-6 month rate at 2.3%. The 12 month stays at 2.8%. The FOMC announces its rate decision at 2 PM with no change expected. This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

Prior was 36.2 Overall livelihood: 32.2 vs. 34.1 prior Income growth: 39.9 vs. 40.2 prior Employment: 41.0 vs. 41.2 prior Willingness to buy durable goods: 27.5 vs. 29.4 prior This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at www.forexlive.com.

Prior was -23.3 (revised to -21.4) Consumer sentiment in Germany begins the new year with a bumpy start. Both economic and income expectations as well as the willingness to buy suffered losses in January. The willingness to save, on the other hand, recorded slight increases. This is a low tier indicator and not a market

The USDCHF has eased slightly ahead of the FOMC rate decision, retreating below key resistance levels: the swing high at 0.9077 and the 200-hour moving average (MA) at 0.9068. Reclaiming these levels would shift the technical bias in favor of buyers. On the downside, the 100-hour MA at 0.9048, which was briefly broken yesterday, now

White House Press Secretary says the President has already put out statements on what he wants to see from Canada and Mexico on the border. This is what I think Trump really wants from Canada and Mexico. This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

More from Lutnick: CHina’s DeepSeek, was able to create a dirt cheap, by leveraging what company had taken from the United States. He will pursue restrictions to keep United States and lead over China on AI. Export controls without tariffs are a whack a mole model on China. China DeepSeek misused American technology. They stole

Prior was +0.1% Market index 220.0 vs 224.6 prior Purchase index 162.4 vs 163.0 prior Refinance index 520.9 vs 558.8 prior 30-year mortgage rate 7.02% vs 7.02% prior This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at www.forexlive.com.

TradeCompass: Bitcoin Futures Price Prediction and Analysis for Today (January 29, 2025) At the time of this Bitcoin futures analysis, Bitcoin futures are trading at 102,400. Below is the comprehensive breakdown of today’s bullish and bearish scenarios for Bitcoin futures, following the TradeCompass guidelines. Bullish Scenario for Bitcoin Futures Today We will turn bullish above

The Bank of Canada cut rates by 25 basis points to 3.0% from 3.25%. The full statement says: The Bank of Canada today reduced its target for the overnight rate to 3%, with the Bank Rate at 3.25% and the deposit rate at 2.95%.1 The Bank is also announcing its plan to complete the normalization

The Canadian dollar is facing some big headwinds in the next few days. Up first is today’s Bank of Canada decision. The market is fully priced for a rate cut today and there is some talk about a surprise 50 bps move, though that’s an extreme outlier from my perspective. I expect the Bank of

The USD is up mostly in early trading with the greenback up the most vs the AUD (+0.51%) and the NZD (up 0.42%). The greenback is modestly lower vs JPY, but off session lows. In Australia overnight, CPI came in lower than expected sending the AUDUSD lower (USD higher): Headline CPI: +2.4% y/y (expected 2.5%,

The USDCAD attempted to break above the critical “red box” resistance area, previously identified as a key zone to clear and sustain. While the pair briefly surpassed the upper limit of 1.4466 ahead of the rate decision, it only reached 1.4464 before reversing downward. Early comments from Tiff Macklem have bolstered CAD strength, contributing to

I flagged that there was going to be a drop in this tracker due to soft inventory and trade data today and now we get the numbers as it’s cut to 2.3% from 3.2%. The Atlanta Fed said: “After this morning’s Advance Economic Indicators release from the US Census Bureau, the nowcast of fourth-quarter real

The December meeting was a bit of a dud. The BoJ hiked rates in January. This is from the minutes of the December meeting, in brief. This summary highlights the BoJ’s cautious stance on rate hikes, concerns about inflation persistence, and the impact of global uncertainties on Japan’s economy. The bank overcame such caution at

The movement in the Canadian dollar hasn’t constrained us so far The depreciation in the loonie so far has been more-driven by trade uncertainty This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

Sector Overview: Technology and Consumer Cyclical Technology Sector: The technology sector sees notable declines, led by Nvidia (NVDA) which drops by 2.01%. Microsoft (MSFT) and Apple (AAPL) also face downturns, down 0.76% and 1.37% respectively. This suggests cautious investor sentiment amid recent market developments. Consumer Cyclical Sector: Conversely, the consumer cyclical sector shows resilience. Amazon

The Financial Times reports that OpenAI has found evidence that the Chinese AI start-up DeepSeek used the company’s proprietary models to train its own open-source model. OpenAI said that it has seen some evidence of “distillation” which is a technique used by developers to obtain better performance on smaller models by using outputs from the

The US dollar is at the best levels of the day as North American traders greet a double-day of central bank decisions. First up is the Bank of Canada at 9:45 am ET and then at 2 pm ET we get the FOMC. The dollar bid undoubtedly highlights some angst about tariffs as the White

Reserve Bank of New Zealand chief economist Conway Without future shocks, the OCR will tend towards the neutral interest rate. With declining inward migration and weak productivity growth, potential output growth is likely to be modest. The long-term nominal neutral interest rate currently lies between 2.5% and 3.5%. The Monetary Policy Committee is confident that

A 25 basis point cut was 99% priced in Overnight rate at 3.00% vs 3.25% prior Prior to the BOC, the market was pricing in 68.5 bps in easing in 2025 (67.6 bps after the announcement) BOC announces the end of quantitative tightening Will restart asset purchases in early March, beginning gradually so that its

This week, China and the world will celebrate the coming of the Year of the Wood Snake. According to Chinese tradition, the snake represents intelligence and transformation. It is often a symbol of mystery and wisdom. Wood adds the qualities of growth and flexibility. Perfect timing! Today, these qualities are more relevant than ever to

Bank of Canada Governor Tiff Macklem is set to speak momentarily but the BOC has already published his opening statement. It highlights a stance that’s more-neutral than the market anticipated. “Absent the threat of tariffs, the risks to the inflation outlook are roughly balanced,” Macklem says. Now the tariffs are a huge asterisk but there

The Bank of Canada had flagged in its December statement that it was likely to revise down 2025 GDP forecasts. Canadian forecasts compared to October: 2025 GDP growth forecast cut to 1.8% from 2.1% Q4 2024 GDP growth trimmed to 1.8% from 2.0% CPI inflation revised up for 2024 annual (2.4% vs 2.3%) Core inflation

The NASDAQ index is trading lower in early trading with the index now down -87 points or -0.45% at 19643.49. The S&P is also lower by 13.6 points or -0.22% at 6053.98. The Dow industrial average is higher by 60 points or 0.13% at 44912. After the close Meta, Microsoft, and Tesla will all report

Commerzbank raised its gold price forecast for the end of Q1 2025 to $2,700 per troy ounce (previously $2,600). In terms of year-end forecast, “we continue to expect a gold price of $2,650 per troy ounce.” This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

The Australian inflation data was encouraging: Australian Q4 2024 inflation headline 2.4% y/y (expected 2.5%) AUD/USD has dropped after the better than expected Q4 inflation data from Australi Where we are at: Inflation slows significantly: Consumer prices rose at their slowest pace in almost four years in Q4 2024. Market expectations for rate cuts: Markets

EUR/USD 1.0300 (EUR1.76bn) 1.0500 (EUR1.25bn) 1.0600 (EUR1.05bn) USD/JPY 155.00 (US$1.39bn) 148.00 (US$930mn) USD/CAD 1.4500 (US$1.29bn) 1.4190 (US$414mn) AUD/USD: 0.6220 (AUD580mn) 0.6350 (AUD441mn) USD/CNY 7.2800 (US$600m) NZD/USD 0.5625 (NZD320mn) For more information on how to use this data, you may refer to this post here. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

Prior was -0.2% Retail inventories ex-autos +0.2% vs +0.5% prior This is a big input for Q4 GDP. The first look at that report is coming up on Thursday and I’d expect the Atlanta Fed GDPNow tracker to be revised down later today on this. It’s currently at 3.2%. This article was written by Adam

US MBA mortgage applications w.e. 24 January -2.0% vs +0.1% prior UK’s Reeves: We begun to turn things around Italy January consumer confidence 98.2 vs 96.0 expected Eurozone December M3 money supply +3.5% vs +3.8% y/y expected European stocks mostly positive to kick off the session Spain Q4 preliminary GDP +0.8% vs +0.6% q/q expected

The Securities and Commodities Authority (SCA) of the United Arab Emirates has awarded Kama Capital the prestigious Category 1 licence. This achievement positions Kama Capital as a key player in the trading industry, providing it with the regulatory framework to expand its presence, scale its operations, and fulfill its mission to create advanced, high-tech, AI-driven

Prior was 96.3 Business Confidence 86.8 vs 85.5 expected and 85.9 prior ISTAT comment: “In January 2025, the business confidence index rose for the second consecutive month, returning for the first time to the level estimated at April 2024. The increase in the indicator is driven by the manufacturing sector and, above all, by the

We begun to turn things around. UK regulation has been stifling and unpredictable. The solution is government systematically removing barriers. Looking forward to work with the new US Treasury Secretary and deepen relationships with the US. We need to remove constraints on the UK economy’s supply side. Fiscal rules will always be met. We will

TradeCompass: Nasdaq Price Prediction and Futures Analysis for Today (January 29, 2025) At the time of this Nasdaq futures analysis, NQ is trading at 21,559. Below is the detailed breakdown of today’s bullish and bearish scenarios for Nasdaq futures, aligned with the TradeCompass methodology. Bearish Scenario for Nasdaq Futures Today We turn bearish if the

The US decided it wasn’t going to win on autos so it closed the market. DeepSeek is open source so it can be run without sharing any info with anyone. It won’t matter though if it’s a threat to US tech dominance. This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

Google vs. Microsoft: Who’s Stronger by Orderflow Intel? 🔥 As we head into earnings season, all eyes are on the mega-cap tech giants—and two names stand out: Google (GOOG) and Microsoft (MSFT). While traditional analysts focus on revenue forecasts, profit margins, and guidance, we’re bringing you something entirely unique—a head-to-head showdown through deep Orderflow analysis.

The US treasury will auction off $44 billion of 7-year notes at the top of the hour. The auction will complete the coupon issuances for the week ahead of the FOMC decision tomorrow at 2 PM. The FOMC is scheduled to keep rates unchanged after moving them lower by 100 basis points in 2024. The

The dip buyers in the Nasdaq have been steadily accumulating since early in the trading day. Initially, the Nasdaq fell into negative territory at the open as Nvidia went red but the chipmaker is now up 7.7% and the index is now 2% higher. Apple and Meta are also big winners today. After the washout

While the Federal Reserve’s policy meeting would typically be the main event of the week, Deutsche Bank economists anticipate a relatively uneventful outcome, with no rate change and limited forward guidance. According to their preview, Fed Chair Jerome Powell may avoid explicitly ruling out a rate cut in March, as he did last January. However,

Today, Unitree debuted the H1 “Fuxi” robot at the Spring Festival Gala as this was broadcast on CCTV. It’s tough to tell how amazing these really are but I met the previous generation with the hand-shaking robot and the dog in Dubai this month and they were impressive. This model has been demoed in various

The Bank of Japan minutes are from the December 2024 meeting, which was a bit of a placeholder meeting. The ‘Summary’ of this meeting was released on December 26: BoJ December 2024 Summary of Opinions – ‘Gradual increase in CPI’ The Australian CPI for Q4 2024 is the focus, previewed here: Critical Australian inflation data

Australian CPI data is due today, for December month 2024 and, more importantly, for Q4 2024. Overall, while headline inflation appears to be within the RBA’s target range, underlying measures remain slightly elevated. Some analyst comments: Westpac anticipates a quarterly CPI increase of 0.3%, bringing the annual rate to 2.5%. Their trimmed mean estimate is

Fundamental Overview The USD got boosted once again by negative tariffs news yesterday as Bessent talked about universal tariffs starting at 2.5% and gradually increasing by the same amount every month, which eventually could reach 20%. Trump later doubled down on that saying that he wants tariffs much bigger than 2.5%. The tariffs risk has

US January consumer confidence 104.1 vs 105.6 expected US December durable goods orders -2.2% vs +0.6% expected US November CaseShiller house price index +4.3% vs +4.3% y/y expected Richmond Fed composite index for January -4 versus -13 estimate A rate cut is 99% priced in for Wednesday’s Bank of Canada meeting. Bigger questions loom White

The European session will once aga just a couple of non market moving releases. The focus today is on the BoC and FOMC policy decisions. 14:45 GMT/09:45 ET – Bank of Canada Policy Decision The BoC is expected to cut interest rates by 25 bps and bringing the policy rate to 3.00%. As a reminder,

Prior was +0.8% GDP Q4 Y/Y +3.5% vs 3.2% prior. “Gross Domestic Product (GDP), measured in terms of volume, increased by 0.8 per cent in the fourth quarter from the previous quarter. This rate was similar to that of the third quarter of 2024. Domestic demand contributed 1.2 points to quarterly GDP growth. For its

Prior was +3.8% Loans to Households Y/Y 1.1% vs. 1.0% expected and 0.9% prior. Loans to Companies Y/Y 1.5% vs. 1.0% prior. This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at www.forexlive.com.

If I was at the Bank of Canada here is what the statement on Wednesday would say: We’re cutting rates by 25 basis points today and what we do next will depend on tariffs between now and our next decision on March 12 decision. There is nothing more to say than that. The overnight rate

Westpac now expects the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) to begin cutting interest rates in February, following a softer-than-anticipated Q4 2024 inflation report. The bank argues that while monetary policy decisions typically rely on a broad range of data, this time, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) has been the decisive factor given mixed signals from

Commonwealth Bank of Australia were already foreecasting an RBA February rate cut. The CPI data published data have further convinced them of that call. But it’ll be a slow rate reduction path after that. In summAry from the bank’s note after the data: The headline CPI rose by 0.2%/qtr in Q4 24 and the annual

Inflation data from Australia for the October- December quarter and for December month, 2024. Headline inflation numbers come in lower than expected. +2.4% y/y expected 2.5%, prior 2.8% +0.2% q/q expected 0.3%, prior 0.2% Trimmed mean (a measure of core, or underlying inflation) 3.2% y/y expected 3.3%, prior 3.5% 0.5% q/q expected 0.6%, prior 0.8%

Bets on a February RBA rate cut are solidfying after the inflation data earlier FX option expiries for Wednesday, January 29, 2025, 10am New York cut Goldman Sachs expects 6 Bank of England interest rate cuts by mid-2026 Euro may see a slight uptick if the European Central Bank is cautious this week Westpac changes

The Chinese tech company Alibaba released a new version of its Qwen 2.5 artificial intelligence model that it claims surpassed the highly-acclaimed DeepSeek-V3 model. Alibaba said in an announcement posted on its official WeChat account that Qwen 2.5-Max outperforms almost across the board GPT-4o, DeepSeek-V3 and Llama-3.1-405B. DeepSeek’s rise spurred competition both in foreign and

Futures contracts have fixed expiration dates, meaning traders must transition to the next active contract periodically. This rollover process ensures that market participants are trading in the most liquid and efficient market. Below are the key reasons why futures contracts roll over and why they cannot remain the same indefinitely. 1. Futures Contracts Expire for

Australian Treasurer Chalmers: the soft landing we have been planning and preparing for is looking more and more likely the worst of the inflation challenge is well and truly behind us Chalmers wants the Reserve Bank of Australia to cut interest rates before the election due on May. He’s panting for it. This article was

Honda plans to introduce a small electric vehicle priced under $30,000 by 2026, according to Nikkei. The affordable EV will be part of Honda’s upcoming “Honda 0 Series” and is expected to be produced locally. However, while Honda aims to offer a budget-friendly EV, a company spokesperson clarified that no final decision has been made

Google reclassifies U.S. as ‘sensitive country’ alongside China, Russia after Trump’s ‘Gulf of America’ comments CNBC with the report: Google’s maps division on Monday reclassified the U.S. as a “sensitive country,” a designation it reserves for states with strict governments and border disputes, CNBC has learned. The decision to elevate the U.S. to its list

The data is here, mainly lower than Q3, lower than market expectations, and lower than RBA projections. Australian Q4 2024 inflation headline 2.4% y/y (expected 2.5%) A very satisfactory trifecta indeed. Australian government subsidies helped put a lid on costs. Nevertheless, a slowdown in core inflation is fuelling speculation of a cut in interest rates

The Bank of Japan is already on a rate normalisation path: BoJ Rate Hike May Move Closer: Analysis & Outlook There is a vacancy to be filled on the policy board. Prime Minister Ishiba has nominated Junko Koeda, a Waseda University professor, according to a document released to reporters in parliament in Tokyo on Tuesday.

The major US indices – led by the broader indices – closed solidly higher after sharp declines yesterday. The final numbers are showing: Dow Industrial Average rose 138.77 points or 0.31% at 44850.35. Yesterday the index rose 0.65% despite the sharp falls in the broader indices S&P rose 55.42 points ro 0.92% to 6067.70 a

Analysts at Goldman Sachs say that while inflation pressures are currently high they are seeing indications that the outlook for UK CPI over the medium term is looking softer, citing: growth has weakened markedly, and GS expect this to continue, forecasting only 0.9% growth for 2025 household real disposable income growth likely to slow rising

more to come — Expectations I had seen centred on: Headline crude +3.2 mn barrels Distillates -2.3 mn bbls Gasoline +1.3 mn — This data point is from a privately-conducted survey by the American Petroleum Institute (API). It’s a survey of oil storage facilities and companies The official report is due Wednesday morning US time.

Bitcoin Futures (BTC) Daily Order Flow Analysis – AI Prediction for January 29, 2025 AI Prediction Score: -3 (Moderate Bearish Bias) Deep Analysis of Bitcoin Futures on the Daily Timeframe 1. Weak Buying Strength in the Last Two Sessions (Jan 27-28) Jan 27: Buyers showed mild interest with a positive Delta of +163 and a

High yield 4.457% WI level at the time of the auction 4.466% Tail:-0.9 basis points versus 6–month average of -1.0 basis points Bid to Cover: 2.64X vs. six-month average of 2.66X DIrects (Domestic demand): 23.06% vs 6-month average of 16.3% Indirects (international demand): 67.08% vs 6-month avearage of 74.0% Dealers (they take the rest): 9.86x%

CNBC carried the report, in brief: The U.S. Navy issued a warning to its members to avoid using DeepSeek “in any capacity,” due to “potential security and ethical concerns.” The warning was sent out on Friday as buzz about the Chinese artificial intelligence startup was picking up across the tech industry. The email instructed all

The euro may see a slight uptick if the European Central Bank takes a cautious stance on rate cuts during Thursday’s meeting, according to a note from Bank of America analysts. “The market is already pricing two cuts for the next two meetings, and the ECB is unlikely to commit to more cuts beyond that

China’s Lunar New Year, marking the start of the Year of the Snake, falls on Wednesday, January 29. The official public holiday spans 8 days, from January 28 (New Year’s Eve) to February 4. During this period, many businesses and government offices close, allowing people to travel home for family reunions. Celebrations traditionally continue for

Good morning, afternoon and evening all. Any charts, technical analysis, trade ideas, thoughts, views, ForexLive traders would like to share and discuss with fellow ForexLive traders, please do so: This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

While the stocks continue to push higher, the USD is more stuck. EURUSD: The EURUSD moved below the 100 hour MA (at 1.04473)and swing area (1.0448 to 1.0461) in the Asian session and remains below those levels. The next key target comes in at the 50% of the move down from the December high at

Anyone who is watching AI closely is worried about the future because it will bring massive disruption in the jobs market, particularly if AI unlocks robotic workers, which I believe it will. Now I’m normally an optimist but I’m having a hard time figuring out how this ends well for most workers. Here is a

The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the fourth quarter of 2024 is 3.2 percent on January 28, up from 3.0 percent on January 17. We are quickly approaching the first look at Q4 GDP. This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

The AUDUSD moved lower with the overall USD buying after the tariff talks from Pres. Trump and Treasury Secretary Bessent. The price decline in the early Asian session took the price away from the swing area between 0.62874 to 0.63016, below the 100-hour MA at 0.6283 and to the 200-hour MA. Some buying at the

Cooler heads are having a re-think on DeepSeek today. That’s helped Nvidia shares to bounce by 2.6%. The market also continues to be upbeat around the idea of certain winners related to cheaper AI as Apple rebounds and Amazon extends. There are also some earnings-related gainers near the top of the S&P 500 chart with

Bitcoin’s price experienced a sharp decline on Sunday due to “risk-off” sentiment, pushing the digital currency lower. The price dropped to a low near $97,750, aligning closely with the upper boundary of a key support zone between $97,319 and $97,750 (highlighted in yellow on the chart). Holding within this range provided some support, and while

The broader stock indices have extended to new session highs and continue to retrace some of the declines seen yesterday. The S&P index fell -1.46% yesterday. It is currently up 47.06 points or 0.78% in trading today. The NASDAQ index tumble by -3.07% yesterday. It is currently up 333 points or 1.72%. So although the

Bitcoin (BTC) Liquidation Map Analysis & Potential Next Move Key Observations from the Chart Current BTC Price: 102,566 USDT Price is currently sitting below a large cluster of short liquidations around 103,000 USDT. This means if price moves above 103,000, a short squeeze could trigger a rapid push higher. Major Liquidation Clusters Short Liquidations (Bullish

15 consecutive negative numbers for the Richmond Fed Prior month -10 Composite index -4 vs -13 estimate Services index 4 vs 23 last month Manufacturing shipments -9 vs -11 last month Employment 3 vs -8 last month New Orders -4 vs -11 last month Prices Paid 2.37 vs 2.86 last month Prices received 1.21 vs

Fundamental Overview Crude oil erased all the gains since the breakout of the two-month range as tariffs threats and Trump’s pledge to increase production weighed on the market. The geopolitical risk premium has also been easing with a ceasefire in the Israel-Hamas war and positive headlines on potential deal in the Russian-Ukraine war coming in

I don’t expect the market to stray from its focus on AI and tech companies this week but there is an FOMC decision coming and we get some economic data today. At the bottom of the hour we get December durable goods orders, which are expected up 0.6%. The main line to watch is on

Prior was +4.2% Month-over-month +0.4% vs +0.3% expected Separate house price data from the FHFA: Year-over-year +4.2% vs +4.5% expected Month-over-month +0.3% vs +0.4% expected US home sales numbers in the final months of the year were stronger than you would expect given high mortgage rates. That said, 7% mortgages are a real headwind. This

The Globe & Mail reports that Canada’s federal government is planning a covid-style relief effort if Trump imposes 25% tariffs. The moves would require a parliamentary vote so they’re far from certain. All opposition parties have pledged to oust the government and the ruling Liberal’s don’t have a majority. Any stimulus would require the support

Nvidia was up by 5% at the pre-market highs but it wasn’t able to open near the highs and has continued lower since the open. I expect that some of that is fallout from yesterday’s blow up as it will take some time to balance out the market. Technically, yesterday’s late low of $116.70 is

The USD/CHF has nearly reversed the decline from yesterday’s high of 0.90725, with today’s high reaching 0.90704. Yesterday’s drop took the pair down to the 50% retracement level of the range since the December 6 low, which is at 0.89655. The low price of 0.89645 marked a bounce back to the upside. Today, the price

Eurostoxx -0.1% Germany DAX +0.2% France CAC 40 -0.3% UK FTSE +0.2% Spain IBEX -0.1% Italy FTSE MIB +0.1% US futures are also reflecting a mixed picture but perhaps more importantly, tech shares are keeping much steadier. Nasdaq futures are up 0.2% while Dow futures are down 0.2%. That is seeing S&P 500 futures keep

Prior 89 French household confidence rebounded to start the year, helped by easing of fears on unemployment. It is still keeping well below the long-term average of 100 though, so that continues to reflect softer sentiment as a whole for now. This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

Prior was -1.2% (revised to -2.0%) Nondefense capital goods orders ex-air +0.5% vs +0.3% expected Prior nondefense capital goods orders ex-air +0.7% (revised to +0.9%) Ex transport +0.3% vs +0.4% expected Ex defense -2.4% vs -0.3% expected The headline is soft but it looks like it was driven by weak defense orders. The line to

Fundamental Overview Gold continues to pull back from the all-time highs although it’s not clear what has been driving it in the past few days. Despite lower real yields and a weaker US Dollar, gold couldn’t catch a strong bid to make a new all-time high. The market might be waiting for a stronger catalyst

TradeCompass for Ethereum Futures: Price Prediction and Analysis Ethereum futures are trading at $3,192, and today’s analysis provides a simple strategy to navigate the market. Whether you’re looking for bullish or bearish opportunities, this article highlights key levels, price targets, and risk management techniques. Let’s dive into the Ethereum price prediction and the trading roadmap.

On the day: Stoxx 600 +0.4% German DAX +0.7% Francis CAC flat UK’s FTSE 100 +0.4% Spain’s IBEX +1.4% Italy’s FTSE MIB +0.5% With enough efficiency in AI, Germany might be able to afford to power the grid. This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

Honda plans to launch a small electric vehicle priced below $30,000 in North America by as early as 2026, Nikkei reported earlier today. That’s hardly a ‘DeepSeek moment’ for the automotive industry as the Honda Civic starts at $24,250 in the US. A real gamebreaker would be something like the BYD Dolphin, which is selling

Reserve Bank of New Zealand Chief Economist Paul Conway is speaking on Wednesday, January 29, 2025 at 11 am New Zealand time: 2200 GMT 1700 US Eastern time The topic is: Beyond the Cycle: Growth and interest rates in the long run: The speech looks beyond the business cycle to explore New Zealand’s longer-term economic

Veles, a trusted platform for algorithmic trading, has introduced a groundbreaking backtesting solution designed to elevate cryptocurrency trading to new heights. Built on in-house technology and audited by Binance, the feature equips traders with the tools to sharpen their strategies, reduce risks, and maximize profitability in dynamic markets. What sets Veles Backtesting apart? Customizable Parameters:

This will be a key spot to watch in the day ahead, as it will tie together the broader market mood. S&P 500 futures are now nudging a little higher to be up 0.3% with Nasdaq futures up 0.6%. It’s not much and it is still early in the day of course. But for now

There is some firming up of pricing for a May Bank of Japan rate hike. Previously July was the hot meeting, but May has moved into contention. Scanning various pieces thereasoning includes: BoJ rate hike last week was more hawkish than many expected Ueda cited uncertainties that might slow future interest rate hikes, these factors

Deutsche Bank make note of the shunt lower for US stocks on Monday, saying markets remain sensitive to ‘downside news’. add that selloffs from time to time are normal mention that recently bearish factors are beginning to look more positive DB point to 4 factors that could hit stocks ahead though: The delayed impact of

Prior was 104.7 (revised to 109.5) Present Situation Index 134.3 vs. 145.2 prior Expectations Index 83.9 vs 81.1 prior (revised to 86.5) 12-month inflation expectations 5.3% vs 5.0% prior The University of Michigan survey last week was surprisingly soft so eyes are fixed on the upcoming data on consumers and retail sales. It doesn’t look

The song remains the same with regarrd to the USDCAD. The pair remains within a bigger trading range between 1.42899 and 1.4466. In between says the 100 and 200 hour moving averages at 1.4372 and 1.4382 respectively. The price is currently testing those moving averages. A move below, would tilt the technical bias more to

If the German economy sees a decline again in 2025, it will be the first time since the reunification in 1990 that the country has suffered a contraction for three years in a row. Ouch. And BDI warns that such a scenario is beckoning with the situation being “very serious”. “Growth in industry in particular

The US dollar is higher after Pres. Trump and his new Treasury Secretary pumped the tariff idea further saying that it will place tariffs on computer chips and producers of pharmaceuticals saying that if they want to stop placing tariffs, companies need to build points in the US. The Treasury Secretary pushed for a gradual

📊 Technology Sector Momentum In today’s stock market, the technology sector emerges as the star performer. Notably, semiconductor giants Nvidia (NVDA) and Broadcom (AVGO) lead the rally with impressive gains of 2.70% and 2.51% respectively. The positive sentiment here suggests growing confidence among investors in tech-driven innovations and demands. 💡 Software and Consumer Electronics: A

Fundamental Overview The USD got boosted once again by negative tariffs news overnight as Bessent talked about universal tariffs starting at 2.5% and gradually increasing by the same amount every month, which eventually could reach 20%. Trump later doubled down on that saying that he wants tariffs much bigger than 2.5%. The tariffs risk has

Fundamental Overview The USD got boosted once again by negative tariffs news overnight as Bessent talked about universal tariffs starting at 2.5% and gradually increasing by the same amount every month, which eventually could reach 20%. Trump later doubled down on that saying that he wants tariffs much bigger than 2.5%. The tariffs risk has

Nvidia shares are up 4.8% in pre-market after suffering the biggest one-day market cap loss on record, more than doubling its own previous record. It led to a broader decline among chipmakers and with the weightage of the Mag 7, major indices were dragged lower despite some sectors holding up. For today, it’ll be interesting

USD surging on this from Trump We will place tariffs on computer chips in the near future. We will also place tariffs on producers of pharmaceuticals. If you want to stop placing the tariffs, you need to build the plant in the U.S. We will look at steel and other industries for tariffs. I will

Nvidia shares up roughly 5% in pre-market German economy is facing a deep economic crisis, says BDI industrial association US futures creep higher in European morning trade European stocks see a mixed mood to kick off the session France January consumer confidence 92 vs 90 expected What are the main events for today? Eurostoxx futures

Closing changes in the main North American markets: S&P 500 -1.45% Nasdaq Comp -3.1% Russell 2000 -1.2% DJIA +0.6% Toronto TSX -0.7% The headlines here don’t begin to tell the story as Nvidia’s 17% decline was the largest market cap wipeout in history, doubling the previous record. There was broad pain in other chipmakers and

Swiss National Bank (SNB) Chairman Martin Schlegel spoke in an interview on Monday, saying that while the Bank does not favour negative interest rates, it cannot completely rule them out: “The SNB doesn’t like negative interest rates, at the same time we can’t rule negative interest rates out,” he told broadcaster SRF. “Not something the

Deutsche Bank on 4 factors that could prompt further losses for US equities China and India are working towards warmer relations between the two states BoJ Rate Hike May Move Closer: Analysis & Outlook More on White House ordering a halt to federal loans, grants Report that White House budget office is ordering a pause

German DAX futures -0.1% UK FTSE futures -0.2% This comes with S&P 500 futures seen down by just 0.1% on the day as well. After the heavy selling yesterday, there is still some slight pessimism in broader markets. Nasdaq futures are seen up 0.2% though, so are tech shares ready to bounce back? We’ll have

China is out on holidays until the middle of next week: There is no PBoC USD/CNY reference rate setting today – China is on holiday There will also be holidays in Hong Kong and Singapore when markets will close. Hong Kong is closed on: Lunar New Year’s Day – 29 January, Wednesday The second day

Via Deutsche Bank’s preview of the European Central Bank monetary policy meeting this week: ECB to continue to cut rates on January 30, with another 25bp reduction in the policy rate to 2.75% expect the main planks of the policy stance to be unchanged from December DB’s “baseline” forecast on the ECB remains unchanged, expecting

UK British Retail Consortium (BRC) Shop Price Index -0.7% y/y in January expected -0.7%, prior -1.0% Shop prices declined at a slower rate in January compared to December food prices saw their biggest monthly increase since April 2024, +0.5% m/m (December was +0.1%) BRC warned that inflationary pressures could grow due to rising costs, including

Washington Post is gated, but here is, in brief, what they are reporting: White House pauses all federal grants, sparking confusion Trillions of dollars could be on hold, according to an Office of Management and Budget memo. The White House budget office is ordering a pause to all grants and loans disbursed by the federal

The initial news on the the White House ordering a broad pause on federal financial assistance programs pending a review by the Trump administration is here: Report that White House budget office is ordering a pause to all federal grants and loans Wall Street Journal (also gated) now: The White House ordered executive departments and

It’s a light calendar for the session in Asia. Japan has its services PPI, and Australia gets a business confidence and conditions update for December 2024. Neither is likely to be a mover of major FX too much upon release. Note, China holidays begin today. China’s Lunar New Year, marking the start of the Year

The European session today is pretty empty on the data front with no market moving releases on the agenda. The main highlight is the US Consumer Confidence report in the American session. We will also get the US Durable Goods Orders but it’s not a market moving release in general because it’s too volatile and

Mondays are tough, but this one was especially so for investors. Pre-market trading saw significant declines in the so-called “Magnificent Seven,” with Nvidia — one of the key drivers of the recent bull market — leading the losses. The culprit? Fears of lower demand for Nvidia’s products. No, it’s not because Trump is shelving the

Like everyone today (and all weekend), I’ve been trying to understand what DeepSeek means. Some thoughts: 1) I don’t care how they trained it, the cost to run is most important Whether DeepSeek had a hidden stash of H100 chips doesn’t matter nearly as much as the changes in opex. The model is free, open

There aren’t any major expiries that should factor into play for the day ahead. There are some closer ones for EUR/USD at 1.0400 and 1.0500, then one for AUD/USD at the 0.6300 level. But given prevailing spot levels and the technical outlook, they aren’t likely to see much of a role in impacting price action.

Via a note from RaboBank on the euro: expecting EUR/USD to drop to parity in Q2 of this year Says that while the recovery in EUR/USD looks similar to 2017, during Trump’s first year, this time around the picture for the euro is more difficult, citing: Ukraine war ECB rate cuts lack of strong leadership

Japan PPI Services for December 2024 +2.9% y/y expected 3.2%, prior 3.0% *** Japan Services Producer Price Index (PPI) measures the average change over time in the prices received by service providers (in the private sector) for their services in Japan Data published by the Bank of Japan covers services such as transportation and communication,

Trump continues to promise tariffs: More from Trump – will place tariffs on computer chips, pharmaceuticals Earlier: Bessent wants a gradual rise in tariffs, could go as high as 20% Bessent will be the Treasury Secretary. I argued in that post that Trump will do what Trump will do on tariffs, not what Bessent wants

National Australia Bank business survey, for December 2024. Business Confidence -2 prior -3.0 Business Conditions 6.0 prior 2.0 Sales increased 3 points to +9, profitability rose 4 points to +4, and the employment index gained 1 point to +4. Conditions improved across most industries, except for transport and utilities, construction, and wholesale. NAB cite: supported

Trump spoke earlier at a House GOP Conference meeting at Trump National Doral Miami. More from Trump – will place tariffs on computer chips, pharmaceuticals USD surging again – Trump tariff threats, Bessent want tariffs too He is on his way back to Washington now, speaking with reporters on Air Force One.: confirms Microsoft is

Tariff man strikes again and the dollar is sitting higher today. It’s another reminder that with Trump, you never know what you’re gonna get right before the end of the day in the US. He is up threatening with tariffs again and you can check out the headlines here. This is now seeing the dollar

Chinese Foreign Ministry reported by the Global Times: China and India have agreed to resume direct flights between the Chinese mainland and India, support coordination between competent departments of the two countries to advance this goal, and take measures to facilitate personnel exchanges and mutual postings of journalists Tensions between the two are particularly high

Trump on tariffs again. Earlier his Treasury Secretary was reported as saying tariffs could start at 2.5% and then gradually rise: Bessent is pushing a starting 2.5% universal US tariff plan, which would rise each month Trump is not having that! Says he wants tariffs much larger than 2.5% hasn’t decided on the level yet

A majority of the US Senate votes to confirm Scott Bessent as Treasury Secretary. Meanwhile, the Financial Times report that Bessent is pushing a gradual increasing universal US tariff plan. FT is gated, but in brief: new universal tariffs on imports to the US would start at 2.5% would then rise gradually would move higher

Good morning, afternoon and evening all. Any charts, technical analysis, trade ideas, thoughts, views, ForexLive traders would like to share and discuss with fellow ForexLive traders, please do so: This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

China’s Lunar New Year, marking the start of the Year of the Snake, falls on Wednesday, January 29. The official public holiday spans 8 days, from January 28 (New Year’s Eve) to February 4. During this period, many businesses and government offices close, allowing people to travel home for family reunions. Celebrations traditionally continue for

We get December 2024 month and Q4 2024 inflation data from Australia on Wednesday, January 29, 2025 at 11.30 Sydney time: 0030 GMT 1930 US Eastern time The quarterly figures are the focus. More on this under the preview. The inflation report will be pivotal in determining whether the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) moves

Justin had the news on this on Monday. Morgan Stanley cited: recent slowdown signs of labour market weakness MS added that the lingering effects of the 16-year Bank rate will weigh on growth: peak impact of the BoE’s policy tightening is likely behind us drag on the economy still persists Bank of England Bank Rate

The data post is here: Japan data – Services PPI (December) 2.9% y/y (prior 3%) I got pretty caught up with Trump’s tariff talks: More from Trump – will place tariffs on computer chips, pharmaceuticals USD surging again – Trump tariff threats, Bessent want tariffs too Trump says DeepSeek is a positive – a ‘wake

Trump says he would soon impose tariffs on foreign pharmaceuticals, semiconductors and metals Also, Trump said the news of DeepSeek’s apparent progress in artificial intelligence is “a positive” – its good that firms in China have come up with a quicker method of AI. Trump’s tariff comments may be being read as putting Bessent firmly

The theme in investing today is simple: AI isn’t some kind of walled-off, near-impossible and extremely expensive software; it’s going to be cheap to make a cheap to run, at least for most business applications. That redirects the market power away from the chipmakers and hyperscalers to companies using AI to become more efficient. It

US December new home sales 698K vs 675K expected US sells 5-year notes at 4.330% vs 4.336% WI Bloomberg: OPEC+ is likely to stick with its current supply policy at a review meeting Reuters poll: Gold to average $2756 per ounce in 2025 and $2700 per ounce in 2026 DeepSeek says it was suject to

Trump speaking We will have a lot of people bidding on TikTok Don’t want China involved in TikTok This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

Prior was 4.478% Bid to cover 2.40 vs 2.66 prior There is some historical precedence for a soft auction as only 20% of 5-year auctions managed to stop through when the sale occurred on the same day as a 2-year auction, according to BMO. I think the market was likely braced for that so this

Due to the Fed meeting on Wednesday, the US treasuries frontloading the auctions. Earlier today, they sold $60 billion of two year notes at a high yield of 4.211% versus a WI level of 4.210%. The into cover was nearly average, with domestic buyers better than the six-month average but international buyers less than the

The US is always thought to be protected somewhat by its geographical position with the Pacific Ocean on one side and the Atlantic Ocean on the other. However as time goes by and technology improves than threats from the south may increase, present trend is set to sign in order to begin process of creating

Central banks may need to contend with lower levels of rational inattention In the ECB’s own words, “the theory of rational inattention assumes that agents cannot process all available information, but they can choose which exact pieces of information to attend to”. Well, I guess she’s saying it doesn’t help if you have someone looking

The model that most people in the bond market are using is this: AI is disinflationary But first there will be massive spending on chips and power to build it, creating near-term inflation Well the second-leg of that thinking took a big hit from DeepSeek, as it shows that training AI is more technique than

Good morning, afternoon and evening all. Any charts, technical analysis, trade ideas, thoughts, views, ForexLive traders would like to share and discuss with fellow ForexLive traders, please do so: This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

While the EURUSD, GBPUSD, USDJPY and USDCHF point to a lower USD, the USDCAD is not so sure. The USDCAD moved higher initially (higher USD), then fell toward a support and is back up. That has the pair higher on the day. However, the price is finding some stall near the 100/200 hour MAs between

Oli traders: Expect OPEC+ to stick with its currency supply policy at a review meeting next week That would run counter to Pres.Trumps request to produce to lower the price and in turn give an incentive to end the war in Ukraine. The current road map is for continued supply cuts this quarter, before gradually

On Friday, Nvidia was the largest company in the world at around $3.5 trillion. Today, shares opened down 12% and that’s led to a decline in market cap of about $465 billion. That dwarfs previous big losses from Nvidia and Meta. This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

Prior was 2.73% This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

In the text from the kickstart post released earlier today, I noted: EUR/USD: The pair moved lower in the early Asian session but found support from buyers within a key swing area and the 61.8% retracement of the move down from the December high, between 1.0448 and 1.0461. Buyers regained control, pushing the price back

Bloomberg reports that China pledged to accept the return of undocumented Chinese citizens in the US, after President Donald Trump threatened to hit Colombia with tariffs for refusing to take back deported migrants. “China will receive people who are confirmed as Chinese nationals from the mainland after verification,” Chinese Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Mao Ning said

Nvidia’s stock price has tumbled on the DeepSeek news, raising questions about its valuation multiples. Adam shares some compelling fundamental insights on what could be the biggest news story of 2025 and beyond. You can read about it HERE. PS. the decline is also the largest Market cap decline ever (CLICK HERE). That is more

For what it is worth, a Reuters poll sees Gold prices averaging $2756 per ounce in 2025 and $2700 and 2026. The current prices trading near the the average price at $2741. For silver, they expect the average price to be $33.10 per ounce in 2025 and $33.45 in 2026. It’s price is currently down

Rate cuts by year-end Fed: 49 bps (99% probability of no change at the upcoming meeting) ECB: 92 bps (91% probability of rate cut at the upcoming meeting) BoE: 71 bps (85% probability of rate cut at the upcoming meeting) BoC: 65 bps (99% probability of rate cut at the upcoming meeting) RBA: 77 bps

TradeCompass for NVIDIA Stock: Contrarian Long Opportunity Amid Pre-Market Decline At the time of this analysis, NVIDIA (NVDA) is trading at $128.40, down nearly 10% in pre-market from Friday’s close. This presents an intriguing contrarian long opportunity for swing traders, leveraging key support levels from historical value areas and VWAP deviations. Below is a detailed

I believe that recent leaks have revealed why Trump is threatening 25% tariffs on Mexico and Canada and what he really wants in return. He wants to renegotiate the USMCA agreement sooner. The agreement — which he negotiated in his first term — is up for review on July 1, 2026. If any party wants

Sector Overview The US stock market presents a varied landscape today, with significant movements across various sectors. The semiconductor sector faces a pronounced downturn, while the consumer defensive sector, led by Walmart, holds steady. 📉 Semiconductor Sector: The semiconductor sector is experiencing a sharp decline, primarily driven by major players such as Nvidia (NVDA), which

Goldman Sachs anticipates a 25bps rate cut from the Bank of Canada at this week’s January meeting, paired with cautious guidance due to tariff-related uncertainties. They prefer medium-term long USD/CAD positions to capitalize on potential tariff risks. Key Points: Expected Rate Cut: A 25bps cut aligns with market expectations, continuing the BoC’s easing cycle. Messaging

Update gold, being hit by the news sending the USD higher: US dollar rising still in Asia trade – Trump tariff trade war on Colombia hits FX, risk Update … I’ve drawn in a couple of trend lines as ideas … I am not entirely convinced. Comments welcome! This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan

Tech shares are the main drag with Nvidia itself down some 11% in pre-market trading. A lot of attention is put on DeepSeek and Adam had the early scoop last week already here: China’s DeepSeek may have just upended the economics of AI That’s leading to a broader fallout among chipmakers now as investors pick

The AUD/USD is bucking the broader trend of a weaker U.S. dollar, with the pair moving lower (stronger USD). In its decline, the price has fallen back below a key swing area between 0.6287 and 0.6301, as well as the 38.2% retracement of the move down from the November 25 high. This area now acts

The agenda points to a big week in markets with key central bank policy decisions lined up. But all in all, it may play out rather straightforward. The Fed is set to keep interest rates unchanged while the ECB and BOC are set to cut by 25 bps each respectively. And that settles it in

Prior was +3.4 (revised to +4.5) Production +12.2 vs +5.3 prior New orders +7.7 vs +1.5 prior Outlook +18.7 vs +12.3 prior Comments in the report: Computer and electronic product manufacturing The outlook is improved because we are subcontractors to a large government grant that got a funding notice. There are some worries—one being the

Prior was 664K (revised to 674K) New home sales +3.6% vs +9.6% prior These are pretty strong numbers and that’s surprisingly given the moves in yields. This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

The gloves are off now. A separate report says DeepSeek is only registering Chinese phone numbers now but I can’t confirm it. This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

TradeCompass for Canadian Dollar Futures (6C – March 2025 Contract) | January 24, 2025 Canadian Dollar Futures Analysis and Price Predictions At the time of this analysis, Canadian Dollar Futures (ticker: 6C) are trading at 0.69825, just below key thresholds that could activate either bullish or bearish setups. This detailed breakdown of the Canadian Dollar

At the end of last week, the 155.00 level proved to be the key for buyers in keeping the pair afloat. But amid the risk-off mood in markets today, we’re seeing sellers finally making a case for a downside break. The pair has struggled in the past two hours, falling from around 155.80 to 154.70

Headlines: USD/JPY threatens firmer break under 155.00 on safety flows The rout continues with S&P 500 futures down over 2% now Bitcoin dips back under $100,000 on risk selloff Weekly update on interest rate expectations ECB’s Lagarde: Central bank independence in question in several parts of the world Germany January Ifo business climate index 85.1

TradeCompass for Meta Stock: Price Analysis and Short-Term Trading Strategy Before Earnings This Meta stock analysis is designed specifically for day traders targeting short-term opportunities. Unlike the previous TradeCompass for Google, which included long-term options with a runner into earnings, this strategy focuses solely on shorting Meta stock in the short term. The goal is

As is usual for a Monday morning, market liquidity is very thin until it improves as more Asian centres come online … prices are liable to swing around, so take care out there. ps. It’s an Australian holiday today, markets are closed, which will keep it thinner for longer. New Zealand markets are trading. Japan,

It’s going to be a rough day in the US equity market, particularly the Nasdaq. The chip bubble may be popping because DeepSeek released a model on par with ChatGPT that was far cheaper to build and to operate. The cost is something like 3% and it didn’t use the latest generation of H100 Nvidia

People’s Bank of China USD/CNY reference rate is due around 0115 GMT. The People’s Bank of China (PBOC), China’s central bank, is responsible for setting the daily midpoint of the yuan (also known as renminbi or RMB). The PBOC follows a managed floating exchange rate system that allows the value of the yuan to fluctuate

The USD is solidly higher and equity index futures on globex are lower. The news hit earlier: Trump slams Colombia with tariffs after it turns back migrant deportation planes Colombian president orders increase of import tariffs on US goods USD up, equity indexes down as Trump kicks off trade war with tariffs Trump is making

As it’s usually the case for Mondays, it’s going to be a lacklustre day in terms of data releases. Tonight, the markets got hit once again by tariffs headlines as Trump decided to impose 25% tariffs and sanctions on Colombia after they refused to let a US military plane carrying deported migrants land. There was

Fundamental Overview The USD opened higher today and continued to dominate throughout the Asian session as we got once again some tariffs headlines that weighed on the risk sentiment. In fact, late yesterday Trump announced that he will impose 25% tariffs and sanctions on Colombia because they refused to take the deported migrants. Colombia retaliated

Alchemy Markets has been recognized with the “Best Emerging Broker MEA 2025” award at the UF Awards MEA. This accolade, regarded as a significant benchmark within the financial industry, reflects the company’s focus on innovation, client-oriented services, and trading solutions tailored to the Middle East and Africa (MEA) region. The recognition highlights Alchemy Markets’ continued

China’s manufacturing sector unexpectedly contracted in January, with the official Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) dropping to 49.1 from 50.1 in December, marking its weakest performance since August. This decline, below the neutral 50-point threshold and missing market expectations, reinforces concerns about sluggish domestic demand and ongoing economic headwinds. While China achieved its 2024 growth target

Fundamental Overview The USD opened higher today and continued to dominate throughout the Asian session as we got once again some tariffs headlines that weighed on the risk sentiment. In fact, late yesterday Trump announced that he will impose 25% tariffs and sanctions on Colombia because they refused to take the deported migrants. Colombia retaliated

The USD/CHF has moved lower, breaking below the 38.2% retracement of the December low-to-high move at 0.90209, which now acts as key resistance. Staying below this level reinforces the bearish bias, while a return above could frustrate sellers. Following the break, the price targeted the 50% retracement at 0.89655, finding initial buyers there during the

Fundamental Overview The USD opened higher today and continued to dominate throughout the Asian session as we got once again some tariffs headlines that weighed on the risk sentiment. In fact, late yesterday Trump announced that he will impose 25% tariffs and sanctions on Colombia because they refused to take the deported migrants. Colombia retaliated

Chipmakers have been the new poster boy for stocks this past year and they are being smashed to start the new week. That is leading to a broader risk rout with cryptocurrencies also feeling the pinch. People are pointing the finger to DeepSeek, a Chinese AI startup, which claims to be able to run on-par

This is a composite index of data that’s already released so it’s not a market mover but it’s a good 500ft view of the economy. Prior was -0.12 (revised to -0.01) This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

The USD has moved lower with lower yields as DeepSeek send stocks lower and tariff wars don’t help either. In the video I take a look at the three major currencies – the EURUSD, USDJPY and GBPUSD – as they react with a move lower in the USD (EURUSD and GBPUSD move higher and the

TradeCompass for Google Stock: Price Prediction and Trading Strategy Before Earnings This detailed guide provides a roadmap for day traders and swing traders to approach Google (Alphabet) stock ahead of earnings. By identifying key price levels, institutional activity zones, and risk management techniques, the aim is to protect capital, secure profits, and capitalize on potential

The USD is having a good session, but not much else: US dollar rising still in Asia trade – Trump tariff trade war on Colombia hits FX, risk Gold slammed lower See that top link for the news of the day taking the dollar up and weighing on everything else. Bitcoin update: This article was

Domestic sight deposits CHF 433.3 bn vs CHF 436.7 bn prior This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

more to come This snapshot from the ForexLive economic data calendar, access it here. The times in the left-most column are GMT. The numbers in the right-most column are the ‘prior’ (previous month/quarter as the case may be) result. The number in the column next to that, where there is a number, is the consensus

German DAX futures -0.8% UK FTSE futures -0.7% This comes as broader markets are also feeling the pinch with a flight to safety in general. Trump showed that he can easily just switch on the tariffs switch and that is spooking markets a little. Sure, it is just Colombia and it will be more challenging

China National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) data January PMIs Manufacturing disappoints at 49.1 expected 50.1, prior 50.1 Non manufacturing slumps to 50.2 prior 52.2 Composite 50.1 prior 52.2 — Background to this is that from July to December 2024 (ie H2 2024), China’s manufacturing sector experienced fluctuations, moving from contraction to modest expansion, while the

Prior 84.7 Current conditions 86.1 vs 85.4 expected Prior 85.1 Expectations 84.2 vs 84.2 expected Prior 84.4 German business morale unexpectedly climbs to start the new year but it’s still languishing overall. The expectations i.e. outlook reading remains poor and that’s more reflective of the pessimism surrounding the prospects in Germany right now. This article