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The NY Fed survey showed: 1 year inflation expectations falling to 3.2% from 3.3%3-year inflation expectations remains unchanged at 2.8%5-year inflation expectations rises to 3.0% from 2.8% Other details: Median one-year inflation expectations fell to 3.2% in May from 3.3%, unchanged at 2.8% for three years, and rose to 3.0% from 2.8% for five years.Median […]

High yield 4.659%WI level at the time of the auction 4.648%Tail 1.1 basis points vs 0.1 6-month averageBid to cover 2.43X vs 2.57X vs 6-month averageDealer 19.9% vs 18.52% 6-month avereageDirects 15.9% vs 18.7% 6 month averageIndirects 64.14% vs 63.2% 6-month average AUCTION GRADE: D The domestic demand was very small. The international tried to

In terms of central bank decisions, there is the Fed and BOJ to work through. And right before the former, there is the US CPI report for markets to scrutinise. After, there is the PPI data and weekly jobless claims. That aside, we also have the UK and Australian labour market reports on the agenda.

From earlier: Far-right movement makes waves in Europe over the weekend That is the main development that is weighing on the euro currency to start the week. In particular, the situation in France and Germany. The former has seen Macron call for a snap election while the latter sees Scholz’s SPD faction suffer a blow

Reuters with the report citing 5 unnamed sources. In brief: Some of the world’s major economies want to finalise a plan ahead of this year’s U.N. climate summit to halt new private sector funding for coal projectsIf approved, the draft proposal by the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development, would be the first move by

Deriv, a globally recognised online trading company with a 25-year legacy of growth, innovation, and expansion, is pleased to announce its elite sponsorship of iFX EXPO International Conference in June 2024. As an Elite-level sponsor, Deriv will engage with industry leaders, showcase innovative products, and build invaluable partnerships. Aggelos Armenatzoglou, Deriv’s Head of Dealing, commented:

Prior -3.6 That’s the eighth straight month that euro area investor morale sees an improvement. This time, being more than estimated as well. The expectations index also saw a rise, up from 7.8 in May to 10.0 in June. Sentix still singles out Germany as being the one that needs to see more improvement for

Headlines: Far-right movement makes waves in Europe over the weekendItaly-Germany 10-year bond yields spread widens by the most since AprilWas the US NFP a gamechanger?ECB’s Nagel: We must be cautious about future rate movesEurozone June Sentix investor confidence 0.3 vs -1.8 expectedSNB total sight deposits w.e. 7 June CHF 459.8 bn vs CHF 461.9 bn

It’s a big week coming up for oil, especially on Tuesday and Wednesday (FOMC Wednesday too!): The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and the International Energy Agency (IEA) will release their latest monthly oil market reports OPEC on Tuesday June 11IEA on Wednesday June 12 Last week(end), June 2, OPEC said it would

Japan GDP SA Q1 2024 (final) -0.5% q/q prior 0.1% (the prior is Q4 2023) Annualised SA -1.8% q/q prior 0.4% GDP Deflator 3.4% y/y prior 3.9%The GDP Deflator is a measure of inflation Prelim reading is here: Japan’s annualised Q1 GDP -2.0% q/q (vs -1.5% expected) The latest from the Bank of Japan (via

Major US stock indices open lower to start the trading week. Last week the major indices did advance rebounding from the declines in the previous week. Dow Industrial Average average rose 0.29%S&P index rose 1.32%NASDAQ index rose 2.38% The snapshot of the market today shows: Dow Industrial Average average is trading down 80 points or

The economic calendar is light today with US employment trends for May 2 due at 10 AM ET. Last month the index came in at 111.25, which was the lowest level since October 2021. The only other economic event will be the three year note auction at 1 PM ET. The auction is the first

The broader US stock indices are now in positive territory and approaching all-time high closing levels: S&P index is trading at 5349.71 up 2.85 points or 0.08%. The all-time high closing level comes in at 5354.04. NASDAQ index is trading up 41.76 or 0.24% at 17174.84. The all-time high closing level for that index is

European indices are closing lower as yields move higher. Markets are spooked as a result of the election results which shifted more to the right. In the benchmark 10 year sector: Germany 2.676%, +5.2 basis pointsFrance 3.239%, +13.4 basis pointsUK 4.329%, +7.5 basis pointsSpain 3.493%, +9.6 basis pointsItaly 4.08%, was 13.6 basis points Looking at

The USDCAD extended toward the May high at 1.3784. The price of the USDCAD got within about three pips of that high and found willing sellers, the price has rotated modestly to the downside but the inability to move above that level puts a temporary feeling on the pair for now. They move back down

Fundamental Overview Gold had a really bad Friday last week as it suffered one of its worst days in several months. The reason for the selloff was due to two strong catalysts. The first one hit in the European session when we got the headline that China halted its reserve buying. This has been the

In the kickstart FX trading video for June 10, I take a look at 3 major currency pairs – the EURUSD, USDJPY and GBPUSD. The EURUSD is sharply lower as the markets reacted negatively to higher rates and the European elections. France’s Macron called a snap election of the parliament on the results which shifted

The USDCHF is consolidating and trading up and down in a relatively narrow trading range between 0.8954 in 0.8982. At session highs, the price fell short of its 38.2% retracement and 200-hour moving average. Those levels dominate 0.8986 and 0.8983 respectively. On the downside, the low price stalled near a corrective low from Friday’s trade

FP Markets continues to solidify its position as a leading force in the Forex and CFDs industry, having recently been awarded ‘Best Trading Experience – Africa’ at this year’s Financial Achievements in Markets Excellency (FAME) Awards. This follows their ‘Best CFD Broker in Africa’ recognition at the 2023 FAME Awards, cementing the broker’s strategic geographical

As the North American session begins, the AUD is the strongest and the EUR is the weakest. The USD is mostly higher with the gains vs the EUR of 0.50% being most of the gain. The USD is lower vs the AUD (by -0.17%). It is less about today and more about the week ahead,

US political news with perhaps some relevance for traders given Trump is likely to be the Republican nominee despite his felony convictions. The US has not had a convicted criminal as President, if Trump wins it’ll be a first for markets. Trump is scheduled to sit for a virtual interview on Monday with a New

This has been the key indicator in measuring risk in the euro area, especially for political matters. It was the same back in 2019 when we had all the risk involving Italian politics. So, this time will be no different. In trying to weigh up the impact on the euro, this will be a good

French President Emmanuel Macron called a snap election on Sunday. His decision came after Marine Le Pen’s far-right National Rally party polled very strongly in European elections held on Sudnay. Le Pen made the largest gains in European Parliament electionsGreens and liberals lost ground Macron has announced that he is dissolving the national assemblyHas called

There is just one to take note of on the day, as highlighted in bold. That being for EUR/USD at the 1.0775 level. It’s not one that holds any technical significance, so I wouldn’t attach too much importance to the expiry level. The pair opened today with a gap lower below the 1.0800 level, falling

Nvidia will start trading today around 120$ after the 10:1 stock split. Let’s see what is a stock split and how it works. In order to increase the share’s liquidity and make it more affordable, a corporation may split its existing shares into many shares, a move known as a stock split. Because the split

Eurostoxx -1.3%Germany DAX -0.7%France CAC 40 -2.2%UK FTSE -0.7%Spain IBEX -0.8%Italy FTSE MIB -0.8% The political angst from the European parliamentary election over the weekend is weighing on regional stocks today. US futures are also more subdued, with S&P 500 futures down 0.1%. For French stocks, this would mark the biggest daily drop since November

Japan’s Nikkei (gated) cites unnamed sources for its assertion that the Bank of Japan will consider whether to scale back its roughly 6 trillion yen ($38 billion) in monthly Japanese Government Bond purchases. ‘Consider’ whether to scale back is not the same as ‘will’ scale back, of course. I’m not sure that ‘consider’ is that

Goldman Sachs on oil, in brief: Sees a $90/bbl ceiling in their base case of no geopolitical supply hits, and the risks to their $75-$90 range as modestly to the downside for oil pricesWe expect that healthy consumers and solid summer demand for transportation and cooling will push the oil market in a sizable Q3

Domestic sight deposits CHF 450.1 bn vs CHF 452.4 bn prior Swiss sight deposits declined further in the past week but it isn’t anything out of line with what we have seen in the last few months: This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

Fundamental Overview The USD came back with a vengeance last Friday following the strong US NFP report where the data surprised with solid job and wage growth. There were also negatives like the uptick in the unemployment rate, but all in all, we can say that it was a good report. The data triggered a

UK Times (gated) with the report: Volvo cars has started to shift production of Chinese-made electric vehicles to Belgium in the expectation that the EU will drive ahead with a crackdown on Beijing-subsidised imports Volvo is majority-owned by China’s Geelymoving production of Volvo’s EX30 and EX90 models from China to Belgium to avoid EU tariffs

This week presents a relatively light calendar in terms of economic events, which is typical for the period following the NFP report. However, there are some very significant events to watch for. On Tuesday, the U.K. will release the claimant count change, the average earnings index 3m/y and the unemployment rate. These figures will provide

Rates are on a mountain ridge, not a peakWe still have to find the right point for a further descentWe must remain cautiousUncertainty about future economic and price trend remains high The language continues to suggest that they will be pausing in July, as per what is expected at the moment. This article was written

Weekend news reports say that U.S. officials expect the Group of Seven (G7) to warn smaller Chinese banks to stop assisting Russia in evading Western sanctions. Reuters cite two people familiar with the matter. G7 leaders are meeting on June 13-15 in Italy. Reuters report is here for more The G7 are Canada France, Germany,

The Federal Reserve’s Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting this week, on Tuesday and Wednesday. Statement due at 2pm US Eastern time, with Powell’s press conference following a half hour later: Pretty much the unanimous expectations out there is for no rate cut. As for the dot plot, consensus is it’ll show two rate cuts

The US NFP on Friday surprised the markets as the data came out much better than expected. I would argue that the part that weighed the most was the strong average hourly earnings figures. Now, I’m not an economist, so I try to look at it from a market participant’s perspective gathering analyses from the

Via a note from JP Morgan chief US economist Michael Feroli on Friday: On the ‘dot plot: he expects the Fed to project a median of two interest rate cuts to come in 2024 The dots showed three in their most recent update, at the March meeting. At Federal Reserve Chair Powell’s press conference expects:

This is weighing on the euro: EU politics – French President Macron has called a snap election. EUR/USD a touch lower. Its not as if its collapsing, its off 20 points or so from late Friday, circa 1.0775 or so. As I say EVERY SINGLE WEEK: As is usual for a Monday morning, market liquidity

European political analysts’ assessment of the European Union elections, in a nutshell: mainstream parties looked set to keep a majority in the EU parliamentbut far-right parties are on course to boost presence There has been much hand wringing over high-profile gains by far-right parties, none more so than Macron: EU politics – French President Macron

German DAX futures -0.3%UK FTSE futures -0.6% That alongside the more sluggish end to last week seen in Wall Street. In Europe, this is the main story over the weekend. S&P 500 futures are also marginally lower by 0.1%, in keeping with the more subdued mood to start the week. This article was written by

The French president decided to call a snap election in a last ditch effort to try and salvage the situation. Marine Le Pen’s National Rally faction looks set to win 33% of the vote – more than doubling Macron’s 15%. Without a majority, Macron would be in a tough spot in trying to push forward

There’s absolutely nothing on the agenda today, so the markets will be mostly dominated by flows set in motion by the hot US NFP report last Friday and the European elections over the weekend. We have a negative risk sentiment as the markets trade more cautiously into the US CPI and FOMC decision on Wednesday.

ICYMI: JP Morgan shifted their forecast for the first FOMC rate cut from July to NovemberGoldman Sachs preview the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) this week – no cut, but …Volvo shifting production of Chinese-made electric vehicles to Europe, to avoid tariffsIt’s a big week coming up for oil, we hear again from OPEC plus

As is usual for a Monday morning, market liquidity is very thin until it improves as more Asian centres come online … prices are liable to swing around, so take care out there. It’ll be ‘thinner for longer’ here this morning with Australian markets closed for a holiday. Indicative rates: EUR/USD 1.0790 … A touch

I posted earlier on Goldman Sachs’ Fed preview: Goldman Sachs preview the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) this week – no cut, but … ps. The ‘but’ is GS expect a rate cut from the FOMC in September and then again in December with a barrage of more to follow in 2025 and 2026. As

PIMCO says the next moves from the ECB will be decided by data flow over the coming months. In brief: we envision the ECB to keep cutting rates at staff projection meetings market pricing seems reasonable and broadly in line with our long-held baseline of three cuts for this year we expect additional cuts in

Q1 GDP data from Japan confirmed the enormous contraction: Japan’s Q1 GDP (revised) -1.8% (annualized) – massive economic slump Almost as if in response the draft of the Jap[anese government’s annual economic blueprint has once again been sighted by Reuters. This happened last week too: Japan’s government to warn of weak yen This time around:

more to come The Wall Street Journal report on a major highway linking Idaho to Jackson, Wyo., near Grand Teton National Park, closed indefinitely, Jackson Hole, Wyoming, is the location of the annual Kansas City Federal Reserve’s annual symposium. This seminar is a big deal, attracting leading central bankers from across the globe. Thankfully there

Markets in Hong Kong, Australia and China are closed for holidays today, Monday, 10 June 2024. This will thin out liquidity during the Asian timezone a little. New Zealand, Japan, Singapore all remain open. The holidays are for Tuen Ng Festival (Dragon Boat Festival) and the King’s Birthday. I’ll leave you to figure out who

Euro/USD technical analysis: Video for currency investors and traders Potential Bull Flag Formation 🏳️ Second touch point on June 3rd 📅Potential breakout identified but not confirmed yet 🚩 Job Report Impact 📉 Tight stop hit after the job report release on Friday 📊Importance of maintaining stops due to new market events 🛑 Daily Time Frame

Before we look at the data agenda, ICYMI this is weighing on EUR early: EU politics – French President Macron has called a snap election. EUR/USD a touch lower.Monday morning open levels – indicative forex prices – 10 June 2024 Its not the end of the world for the EUR, but it’s a few points

Crude oil is closing near unchanged on the day. The settlement price is $75.53. That’s down to cents or -0.03%. For the week, the price is down -$0.38 or -0.50%. The prices also settling below its 200 week moving average for the first time since January 2021. That 200 week moving average comes in at

Major indices close lower on the day/higher for the weekCrude oil settles at $75.53US consumer credit for April rises by $6.40B versus $11.0B increase estimateWith the Bank of Canada, ECB and jobs in the rear view mirror, the Fed is aheadECB Pres. Lagarde: Still a long way to go until inflation is defeatedBaker Hughes oil

The 50-200 Moving Average Crossover is an easy concept to build a trading strategy around because the inputs are simple and the potential optimizations are straightforward. So it’s perfect if you’re just getting started with trading strategy development. Many trading websites will give you what they say is the “best” 50-200 crossover strategy. Interestingly, most

The major US stock indices are closing lower on the day, but higher for the week. This week, both the S&P and NASDAQ indices traded to the new all-time high levels. The S&P index reached a site today of 5375.08. That is its new all-time record high. The gains could not be maintained and the

UPCOMING EVENTS: Tuesday: UK Labour Market report, US NFIB Small Business Optimism Index.Wednesday: Japan PPI, China CPI, UK GDP, US CPI, FOMC Policy Decision.Thursday: Australia Labour Market report, Swiss PPI, Eurozone Industrial Production, US PPI, US Jobless Claims.Friday: New Zealand Manufacturing PMI, BoJ Policy Decision, US University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment. Tuesday The UK unemployment

This week the Bank of Canada and the ECB cut rates each by 25 basis points. For each, it was the central banks initial cut. The Bank of Canada announced their interest rate decision on Wednesday. The central bank cut from what is restrictive policy, but acknowledge further cuts are dependent on upcoming data. BANK

The AUD is one of the weakets of the major currencies (along with the NZD). Commodities are sharply lower on the back of the higher dollar/higher rates/a more stubborn Fed. Technically, the price has moved lower to test a cluster of support including the 38.2% retracement at 0.6579, a swing area between 0.6579 to 0.6585.

The PBOC is China’s central bank and the biggest buyer of gold in the world. Data hit on Friday that the Bank bought zero gold in May: ForexLive European FX news wrap: ECB tries to justify rate cut, gold dips on China In May 2024 gold prices hit a record high, and it looks like

Path to 2% inflation won’t be entirely smooth.Made major progress, but inflation fight is not overRates to remain restrictive for as long as necessary.ECB still needs vigilance or commitment, perseverance.Still a long way to go until inflation defeated. The ECB cut rates yesterday, with one dissenter, but since then there seems to be more regret

Backtesting is the best way to verify that a trading strategy has an edge and optimize that strategy to meet your goals. Despite its importance, backtesting does have its limitations. The primary constraints of manual backtesting are that it requires discretionary input from the trader and is not highly scalable. Automated backtesting is limited by

In trading, backtesting and forward testing are essential methods for evaluating the potential success of trading strategies. Backtesting allows traders to assess how a strategy would have performed in the past by simulating trades with historical data. Unlike backtesting, forward testing involves trading a strategy in real-time with live data in a demo account, without

OK I tried it.. and it is garbage. Over and out…. This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

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Robert Holzmann is Governor of Austria’s central bank and a European Central Bank Governing Council member, billed by many pundits as the A1 hawk at the table. Holzmann spoke in a radio interview on Saturday with public broadcaster ORF (Österreichischer Rundfunk, ‘Austrian Broadcasting’). He said further European Central Bank rate cuts in the abscence of

Baker Hughes rig count for the week shows: Oil rigs -4 to 496Gas rigs -2 to 98Total rigs -6 to 594 This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

In a previous article, I showed you how to create a fully automated 50-200 moving average crossover trading strategy, without coding. Now I’m going to show you the backtesting results of that strategy for every market that I’ve tested. I’ll show you both the good and bad. You have to backtest this strategy yourself to

Prior month $6.27 billion revised down to $-1.10 billionConsumer credit $6.4 billion vs $11.0 billion estimate This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

Backtesting is the systematic process of finding out if a trading strategy has worked in the past and therefore will be very likely to work in the future.  This is the most important step that a trader can go through to prove that their trading strategy actually works. Yet, so many aspiring traders miss this

In this tutorial, I’ll show you how I backtest multiple timeframes at the same time. You’ll learn how to setup multiple charts and have them all run at the same speed while you backtest. This is easy to do. There are many software solutions that can do it, but it may not be obvious how

Today, we have Oliver Kell on the show. What’s interesting about Oliver is he took part in the US investing championship in 2020—and came in first place! Achieving a staggering return of 941.1%! That’s like having $10,000 in your account in January and seeing it become $100k in December. The post The Stock Trader Who

Thank you for your interest!You’ll be the first to know when enrollment for the Forex Trading Income (FTFI) is open. The post Thank You for Signing Up appeared first on TradingwithRayner.

Today we have Jack Schwager on the show! I believe he needs no introduction but I’ll do it anyway…He is the author of the Market Wizards book series and has inspired a generation of traders (me included). The post Market Wizards: Behind The Scenes (With Jack Schwager) appeared first on TradingwithRayner.

When you’re testing trading strategies to gauge their profit potential, backtesting is a crucial step. But it’s not enough to just stop at the total return of a strategy in backtesting. There are many metrics that should be studied to assess the viability of a strategy, and if it will meet your goals. A Monte

In my experience, backtesting a trading strategy is an essential step before deploying it in the market. It allows me to assess how the strategy would have performed in the past, giving me a clearer idea of its potential success in the future. Manual backtesting is great, but automated backtesting speeds up the process considerably.

Easy Forex Builder (EFB) is a no-code, online tool for building automated Forex trading strategies. Once a strategy is built in this software, it can be exported to MetaTrader or Forex Tester for backtesting or even live trading. I reviewed EFB when it first came out and I was not impressed. It was not able

Discover the ins and outs of forex lot size to trade with confidence and precision in the forex markets, never doubting your decisions again The post The Essential Guide To Forex Lot Size appeared first on TradingwithRayner.