August 2024

The USDCHF is stretching to the upside as the market continues to unwind the flight to safety flows that helped to push the USDCHF lower in July. The price bottomed last Monday after the Nikkei fell -12.4%, and the S&P and Nasdaq indices moved down -3.0% and 3.4% respectively. The price has been stepping higher […]

Headlines: USD/JPY Technical Analysis – Waiting for a breakout of the rangeDollar trades more mixed as risk sentiment holds up for nowBOE’s Mann says still concerned about upside risks to inflationUS data will keep markets in check for nowOPEC slashes 2024 oil demand growth forecast on softer China outlookGermany July wholesale price index +0.3% vs

I posted a little while back on this forecast from BCA Research: Canada-based BCA Research recently warned that the S&P 500 could fall to 3,750 by early 2025 The firm reiterated this forecast in a report published late lat week: expects stocks to stabilize in the near termsays though that the medium-term direction is to

Hedge funds have been safeguarding against a global economic slowdown via commodity shorts in all likelihood. Bloomberg data showed a net short of 153K contracts across 20 raw-materials markets in the latest week, that’s the most since at least 2011. The positioning is particularly stark in oil, where the net was cut by 110 million

Slight delay in the release by the source. Relative to the same month a year ago, wholesale prices are seen down 0.1%. But the decline has eased compared to June, when prices were down 0.6% compared to the same month in 2023. This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

Reuters conveying the info, citing several trade sources Saudi crude oil exports to China are set to fall in September to about 43 million barrels, citing monthly allocations for term buyers. September exports to China are estimated to slip about 3 million barrels from about 46 million barrels in August 3 mn barrels over a

As it’s usually the case for Mondays, we don’t have any notable event today. There’s the US consumer inflation expectations survey from the NY Fed in the American session, but that’s not a market moving release. The sentiment in the markets is generally positive as the last Monday’s rout is now in the rear-view mirror

Rate cuts by year-end Fed: 99 bps (53% probability of 25 bps rate cut at the upcoming meeting) ECB: 66 bps (90% probability of rate cut at the upcoming meeting) BoE: 43 bps (61% probability of no change at the upcoming meeting) BoC: 72 bps (92% probability of rate cut at the upcoming meeting) RBA:

Prior was -12.2% (revised to -12.7%)Permits at $9.9 billion vs $11.6 billion priorresidential permits decreased 11.5% to $6.5 billion, led by multi-unitsingle-family homes +4.0% m/mnon-residential sector permits decreased 18.1% following a 21.3% increase in May These are back-to-back monthly drops of 12.7% and 13.9% in Canadian building permits. The condo boom is certainly over with

Last week Jeremy Seigel was lambasted for screaming for a 75bp Federal Reserve emergency rate cut. About that 75 basis point emergency cut… As you’ll see from that linked post, he did pull his head in. I’m not sure what the point of screaming for such a panic move was. unless it was the publicity.

The Wall Street Journal (gated) says Trump’s proposed 60% tariff on imports from China would cause much steeper economic damage to China because the tariffs would be higher and China’s economy is much more vulnerable. The Journal makes the point that China’s export surge is a bright spot for an otherwise struggling economy. (ps. I

2024 world oil demand growth forecast seen at 2.11 mil bpd (previously 2.25 mil bpd)2025 world oil demand growth forecast seen at 1.78 mil bpd (previously 1.85 mil bpd) On the change, OPEC says that softening expectations for China’s oil demand is the main reason for that. But the bloc maintains that despite a slow

There is just one to take note of on the day, as highlighted in bold. That being for EUR/USD at the 1.0900 level. With price action also keeping in between its key hourly moving averages of 1.0890-22 currently, the expiries are likely to help play a role in keeping price movement more limited before rolling

Eurostoxx +0.4%Germany DAX +0.6%France CAC 40 +0.4%UK FTSE +0.6%Spain IBEX +0.6%Italy FTSE MIB +0.5% The make or break this week will be on the inflation data on Wednesday. While market players will be honed in on the US numbers, I want to say that one shouldn’t underestimate the potential for early shockwaves from the UK

The New Zealand Institute of Economic Research (NZIER) runs a ‘shadow board’ of analysts. The Shadow Board is independent of the RBNZ and does not represent what the RBNZ is going to do but rather what their view is that the RBNZ should do. That is, the Shadows do not preview what they think will

Westpac’s 1 – 3 month view on the Australian dollar, in very brief. This is a great summary of where we are at where we are going: Conditions remain very unsettled, and AUD/USD looks set to remain choppy and challenging. Further “volatility shocks” can’t be ruled out, which would see a retest of the 0.63-0.64

Oil futures markets are about to open. The Israeli Air Force and Military Intelligence Directorate have been placed on High Alert. This follows observations in Western Iran suggesting an imminent attack. Assessments include: Hezbollah will startIran will attack a few hours later Rising tensions in the Middle East are supportive for oil prices at the

Solita Marcelli, chief investment officer for the Americas at UBS Global Wealth Management spoke on Friday, says upside ahead for equities. Citing: Federal interest-rate cut aheadsolid growth backdrop“Because of this, I think the markets can be supported” “There are also some contrarian buy signals that are emerging.””With economic and earnings fundamentals still good and the

Makoto Sakurai is a former Bank of Japan monetary board member. says the Bank of Japan will not be able to hike again in 2024predicts a rate hike by March 2025 If he is right it’ll be a positive for calming markets and the Nikkei. ps. Today is a market holiday in Japan – closed

Reserve Bank of Australia Deputy Governot Hauser, speaking at an Economic Society of Australia (QLD) event: Economic forecasts are subject to huge uncertainty.Assume inflation stickiness due to weaker supply, labour market tightness.But spare capacity could easily be much higher, or much lower than we assume.Assume unemployment will rise only slowly, but risk of faster increase.Assume

This article is concerning, titled: China’s Real Economic Crisis – Why Beijing Won’t Give Up on a Failing Model Here is the link. It’s a long, long piece, but, in summary: China’s economy is struggling despite the end of zero-COVID policies, with sluggish GDP growth and sagging consumer confidence.The main issue is structural overcapacity in

The People’s Bank of China set the onshore yuan (CNY) reference rate for the trading session ahead. USD/CNY is the onshore yuan. Its permitted to trade plus or minus 2% from this daily reference rate.CNH is the offshore yuan. USD /CNH has no restrictions on its trading range.A significantly stronger or weaker rate than expected

US Defense Secretary Austin spoke to his Israeli counterpart Gallant in a call Austin said he has ordered the USS Abraham Lincoln carrier strike group to accelerate its transit to the Middle EastAustin has also ordered the USS Georgia guided missile submarine to the Central Command region Earlier: Oil traders – Israel placed on High

ING previewing the Reserve Bank of New Zealand meeting on Wednesday 14 August, this the bottom line: It is a very close call, and consensus is split between a 25bp cut and a hold by the Reserve Bank of New Zealand on 14 August. However, we are inclined to think the RBNZ may still prefer

UBS Global Wealth Management mull the wild swings in markets last week, noting only a mild impact on EUR/USD. expect the rate to rise graduallysays US exceptionalism (the US economy outperforms the rest of the world) was key to the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) holding higher (than other global central banks) for longerexceptionalism will

The latest survey from the UK’s Chartered Institute of Personnel and Development shows that the country’s employers plan lowest pay rises in two years. Info comes via Reuters. UK employers are planning to raise wages by just 3% over the coming year the lowest planned increase in two yearsa significant drop from the 4% expected

Its an empty data calendar with regards to major FX. It’s a market holiday in Japan today. Apart from a speech from Andrew Hauser, Deputy Governor of the Reserve Bank of Australia. at midday Sydney timewhich is 0200 GMTand 2200 US Eastern time (Sunday evening)at the Economic Society of Australia (QLD)I haven’t seen a topic

Japanese markets are closed today, Monday, August 12, 2024 local time, for observance of the Mountain Day holiday. The holiday will mean no physical trade of US Treasuries. it’ll also thin out liquidity across other markets, notably yen crosses. Mountain Day fell on the 11th but is being observed today. Mt. Fuji is the biggie

CIBC now expects both the Fed and Bank of Canada to cut rates by 25bps at each of their next three meetingsThis represents a 25bp lower endpoint for rates in 2024 and 2025 compared to previous forecastsDisinflation appears entrenched, allowing central banks to focus on downside economic risksHowever, CIBC doesn’t see an imminent recession despite

UPCOMING EVENTS: Tuesday: Australia Wage Price Index, UK Labour Market report, Eurozone ZEW, US NFIB Small Business Optimism Index, US PPI.Wednesday: RBNZ Policy Decision, UK CPI, US CPI.Thursday: Japan Q2 GDP, Australia Labour Market report, China Industrial Production and Retail Sales, UK Q2 GDP, US Retail Sales, US Jobless Claims, US Industrial Production and Capacity

12th-16th August 2024 Mon: OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report; Japanese Market Holiday (Mountain Day), German Retail Sales (May), Indian Trade Balance (Jul)Tue: IEA Oil Market Report, Australian Wage Price Index (Q2), UK Jobs (Jun/Jul), German ZEW Survey (Aug), US PPI (Jul)Wed: RBNZ Announcement and Quarterly MPS, Bank of Israel Announcement, UK Inflation (Jul), Swedish CPIF

“I am not confident that inflation will decline in the same way as in the second half of last year.”Inflation still “uncomfortably above” 2% targetLabor market showing signs of cooling, but uncertainties remainUpside risks to inflation persist, including housing and geopolitical factorsCalls for patience in monetary policy decisionsCritical of rapid regulatory changes in banking sectorAdvocates

With less than an hour left to go in trading, the broader stock indices are trying to fight its way to a positive close for the trading week. Both the S&P and NASDAQ indices are currently on pace for a negative close. If it remains that way, it would represent the fourth consecutive down week

Crude oil futures are settling the day and $76.84 that is up $0.65 or 0.85%. For the trading week, the prices closing up $3.32 or 4.51%. The gain this week comes after four straight weeks of declines. The low price it this week reached $71.67 which was the lowest level since February 5. The price

Broader US stock indices fight for a positive week with less than an hour to goCrude oil futures and settle at $76.84Key events and releases for next week’s tradingIn the future you will vote for who can keep the lights onBaker Hughes US oil rig count +3European equity close: The week finishes much better than

The US CPI and Retail sales will dominate the economic releases next week. The RBNZ will announce their interest rate decision on Wednesday in NZ. Tuesday August 13 9:30 PM ET: AUD Wage Price Index q/q (Estimate: 0.9%, Prior: 0.8%)2 AM ET: GBP Claimant Count Change (Estimate: 14.5K, Prior: 32.3K), GBP Average Earnings Index 3m/y

Oil rigs at 485 vs 482 priorGas rigs 97 vs 98 prior There is a leveling-off of US drilling activity that partly reflects poor natural gas prices. Much of that market hinges on how could this winter is. This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

IN the kickstart video for August 9, I take a look at three of the major currency pairs, the EURUSD, USDJPY and GBPUSD from a technical perspective FOr the EURUSD it is trading up and down in trading today but did find resistance sellers against its 100 hour moving average at 1.09283. That remains to

On the day: Stoxx 600 +0.6%German DAX +0.1%Francis CAC +0.3%UK’s FTSE 100 +0.3%Spain’s IBEX +0.7%Italy’s FTSE MIB +0.2% On the week: Stoxx 600 +0.3%German DAX +0.3%Francis CAC +0.1%UK’s FTSE 100 +0.1%Spain’s IBEX -0.4%Italy’s FTSE MIB -0.7% The STOXX 600 was down by as much as 3.6% early in the week but clawed it all back

These comments from Brookfield CEO Bruce Flatt caught my attention: The next 20 years will be an unprecedented period for electricity build-out. The electrification of industrial capacity, automobiles, heating for houses, and other uses is driving unprecedented growth in the demand for electricity. On top of that, the world is adding data centers for Al

The major US stock indices are trading mixed in early action. The NASDAQ and the S&P are little changed. The Dow industrial average is lower. A snapshot of the market 11 minutes into the open and showing: Dow industrial average -125.70 points or -0.32% at 39320.80.S&P index -2.89 points or -0.05% at 5316.41.NASDAQ and X

Fundamental Overview Gold erased most of the losses from the Monday’s global stock market rout as the ISM Services PMI and especially the US Jobless Claims yesterday improved the risk sentiment. This might be just a retracement of the liquidations experienced on Monday as it doesn’t look like there are strong reasons for a rally

What’s in a 19-pip move? That’s the total change in USD/JPY on the weekly chart. Of course it doesn’t tell the whole story, not even close. The pair cratered after hitting a 34-year high last month and had fallen more than 20 big figures by Monday. The drop came as the carry trade collapsed and

The USDCAD is little changed after the Canadian jobs report. Although the employment change was lower by -2.8K versus +22.5 estimate, the full-time jobs increased by 61.6K. The part-time jobs fell by -64.4K offsetting those gains. Stronger full-time is better than the declines in part-time jobs. The unemployment rate also remained steady at 6.4% versus

Prior +0.8%HICP +1.6% vs +1.7% y/y prelimPrior +0.9% Core annual inflation remained steady at 1.9%, so that’s at least a positive as price pressures in general hold just below the 2% mark in the Italian economy last month. This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

The US dollar is under mild selling pressure across the board as the trading week winds down in London. The dollar benefited from the safe haven trade early in the week but markets have calmed and that’s led to the unwind of some safe haven flows. At the same time, the Treasury market has also

At one point on Monday this week, some market players were calling for emergency rate cuts by the Fed. To them, the US jobs report on Friday was enough to signal doom and gloom in the economy. But let’s be honest, it was more to do with them crying over carry trade losses and wanting

The AUD/USD is reaching new session highs, breaking above two of four key technical levels: the 50% retracement of the move down from July at 0.6473 and the 100-bar moving average on the four-hour chart at 0.6577. The current price is trading at 0.6586. The next targets are the 200-day moving average at 0.6592 and

JP Morgan Asset Management (info comes via a Bloomberg report, gated) says the Bank of Japan is unlikely to raise interest rates again soon. JPAM say further tightening hinges on the US economy’s performance: BOJ may move again only if the Federal Reserve cuts rates and stabilizes the US economy.believes any further tightening by the

The Canada jobs data had something for everyone today. The unemployment rate was steady vs. last month at 6.4%, but lower than the estimate of 6.5%. The employment data showed a decline of -2.8K for the 2nd consecutive month decline, but there was 61K of full time jobs but -64K of part time jobs. So

The seeds of what would become a tumultuous Monday for Asian markets were sown during the previous Friday’s U.S. trading session. A seismic shift in investor sentiment was triggered by a far weaker-than-expected Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report, which painted a less rosy picture of the U.S. economy than anticipated. This unexpected economic data sent shockwaves

🚀 Today’s Stock Market Overview This article was written by Itai Levitan at www.forexlive.com.

The CHF is the strongest and the AUD is the weakest as the NA session begins. Today at 8:30 AM ET, Canada will release its July jobs report. The expectation are for: Employment Change (Jul): Estimate 22.5k, Prior -1.4kUnemployment Rate (Jul): Estimate 6.5%, Prior 6.4%Full-Time Employment Change (Jul): Prior -3.4kPart-Time Employment Change (Jul): Prior 1.9kParticipation

The Nikkei is ending the day up by 0.56% and on the week itself, it is down 2.46%. The latter sounds bad but it really looked like it was going to be much worse after the Monday close: Japan’s Nikkei closes down by a whopping 12% to its lowest since November last year But a

The AUDUSD moved to the lowest level since November 2023 on Monday as Japan stocks plummeted. However, after breaking below the low from 2024 at 0.63614, the price could only make it to 0.6348 before it snapped back to the upside and started to start the recovery. Although that recovery had its fits and starts

Gold has perked up in the past few minutes, rising a few dollars to $2430. That comes after a large gain yesterday and a series of higher lows over the past month. Those are reasons for optimism. However the main feature on the daily chart is a double top near $2475. So higher lows vs

Fed’s Barkin is scheduled to speak at 3 PM ET. ON Friday after the US jobs report he said: Not ready to embrace the 50 bp cut debateThat 114K jobs is reasonable.We’re going to get a lot of data between now and September. There will be two whole rounds of jobs reports two whole rounds

On Wednesday, the USDCHF moved back above its 100-hour moving average and although the price corrected lower into yesterday’s Asian and early European session, the downside momentum found willing buyers near that moving average level. The subsequent rise on the back of higher US stocks yesterday (and the unwinding of the flight to safety flows

Eurostoxx +0.2%Germany DAX +0.1%France CAC 40 +0.3%UK FTSE +0.3%Spain IBEX +0.4%Italy FTSE MIB flat S&P 500 futures and Nasdaq futures are flat, so that’s not leaving all too much to work with. The market mood is steadier following the gains yesterday but that owed much to better US data. Today, traders will have to fend

The NZDUSD fell to a new low for the year on Monday on the back of the sharp fall in the Nikkei 225 (-12.4%). However, that new low only took out the April 2024 low by a few pips, and the price snapped higher. The momentum stalled near highs from last week nearly 0.5982 and

ANZ provides insights into the outlook for the USD and GBP in the upcoming week, focusing on the impact of recent macroeconomic data and positioning trends. Key Points: USD Outlook: Macroeconomic Stability: Despite market reactions suggesting otherwise, ANZ believes the US macroeconomic backdrop is not as dire. The labor market is easing but trending towards

The scare for lower growth and increasing unemployment was lessened today after initial jobless claims came in lower-than-expected 233K versus 250K last week. Maybe the employment picture is not so alarming after all. If bad data is bad for the market, good data has to be good for the market, and that is what we

Inflation, both CPI and PPI, data from China for July 2024 The m/m PPI is -0.2% This data comes in higher than expected for CPI, and also (not as negative as expected) for PPI. The pick up in consumer inflation moves the danger of deflation in China little further away. It also suggest some improvement

Fundamental Overview The Russell 2000 bounced strongly from the lows yesterday following good US Jobless Claims figures as the data quelled some of the fears around the labour market after the weak US NFP report last Friday. The market pricing for rate cuts eased a bit but remains quite elevated with a 55% probability of

Former ECB Vice President Vitor Constâncio on Thursday, tips a 25bp rate cut from the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) in September but the same from the European Central Bank is a coin toss: — Note that final line from Constancio on ‘normative’ terms. He draws a clear distinction between what he thinks will happen

A note from LPL, the largest independent broker-dealer in the United States on using the stock market as a prediction tool for the US election. The S&P 500 index has historically been a strong predictor of U.S. presidential election outcomes, with an 83% accuracy rate since 1928. The indication comes from the stock market’s performance

BofA anticipates a partial reversal of June’s downside inflation surprise in the upcoming July CPI report, projecting modest increases in both headline and core CPI, which could influence the Fed’s decision-making for rate cuts in September. Key Points: Forecasted Headline CPI: Monthly Increase: BofA forecasts a 0.3% month-over-month (m/m) rise in headline CPI, with an

Wharton professor and frequent market commentator Jeremy Siegel caused a stir on Monday by calling for an emergency 75 basis point rate cut as markets melted down. He doubled down by calling for another 75 bps in September “at minimum.” Skip ahead a few days and he has had a change of heart. “I no

Prior month -1.4KEmployment change -2.8K vs +22.5K expectedUnemployment rate 6.4% vs 6.4% expected (up 0.9% y/y)Prior month employment rate 6.4%Full-time employment +62.0K vs -3.4K priorPart-time employment -64.4K vs +1.9K priorParticipation rate 65.0% vs 65.3% priorAverage hourly wages y/y 5.2% vs 5.4% last month These are back-to-back negative numbers, though they’re mitigated somewhat by the gain

Prudent monetary policy should be flexible, moderate, precise and effective.Will guide reasonable creditr growth.Will lower firms’ financing and household credit costs steadily.Will promote the steady decline in the cost of comprehensive social financing.Will maintain fundamental stability of Yuan exchange rate at a reasonable equilibrium level.Will implement measures to prevent and resolve risks in key aread

Timing and pace of rate cuts will be based on the data The narrative surrounding Fedspeak at the moment is that they are gearing towards a September rate cut. All the kicking and screaming from earlier this Monday hasn’t changed that whatsoever. And if another bout of volatility hits markets, I would expect policymakers to

The good news on the hurricane front is that a formation that was tracking similarly to Beryl fizzled this week but the bad news is that it’s still early in hurricane season and another one has formed in the mid-Atlantic. The NHC says a tropical depression could form by early next week and the chance

China treasuries fall after state media says trading accounts must not be borrowedHow the S&P 500 predicts the winner of the US Presidential electionSociete Generale says its too early to call a US recessionICYMI – Ex-ECB Constancio says September rate cut only a 50-50 chance – inflation concern“No need for the Bank of Japan to

Signs mount that the Canadian consumer is slowing with jobs report due todayPBoC: Will guide reasonable credit growthFed’s Collins: It will be appropriate to ease soon if data aligns with expectationsWhat to watch out for on the economic calendar next week?US futures stick with the bounce from yesterday so far on the sessionWeekly update on

The highlight on the North American economic calendar today is the Canadian July employment report but it comes amidst sign that consumer spending is slowing down. RBC is out with its latest consumer spending tracker based on credit card data and Canada’s largest bank saw a 0.6% decline in July. “Canadian consumers are pulling back

Via Reuters, another move from Chinese authorities to fight the surge in bonds in the country: Chinese treasuries fell on Friday after state media said trading accounts must not be borrowed or transferred, following the launch of a probe by regulators into suspected misbehaviour in the country’s red-hot bond market. Borrowed or transferred interbank bond

Gold and the USD are often intertwined. Amid the recent drama surrounding the US Federal Reserve and its indecisiveness regarding interest rate cuts, this topic is more poignant and relevant than ever. This saga provides the perfect segue to the upcoming Finance Magnates Pacific Summit (FMPS), taking place in just a few weeks on August

The Mexico central bank lowered their benchmark interest rate to 10.75% from 11%. The expectations were split between unchanged and a 25 basis point cut. Banco de México’s Governing Board lowered the target for the overnight interbank interest rate by 25 basis points to 10.75%, effective August 9, 2024.Economic activity remained heterogeneous across countries in

Kansas City Federal Reserve Bank President Jeffrey Schmid, speaking with the Kansas Bankers Association’s annual meeting in Colorado Springs, Colorado: If inflation continues to come in low, it will be appropriate to adjust policy. Current stance of Fed policy is ‘not that restrictive.’ Financial conditions can impact real economy, but Fed must remain focused on

There are a couple to take note of on the day, as highlighted in bold. The first one being for EUR/USD at the 1.0900 mark. That should help to keep a floor on price action in the session ahead, with the pair itself settling just above the figure level following yesterday’s push and pull. Then,

Good morning, afternoon and evening all. Any charts, technical analysis, trade ideas, thoughts, views, ForexLive traders would like to share and discuss with fellow ForexLive traders, please do so: This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

MUFG on the Bank of Japan outlook, a conditional view: “If financial markets stabilize and the pace of yen gains slows, then at least one more BOJ hike still appears likely in the current fiscal year.” MUFG cite the Bank of Japan Summary of Opinions (published yesterday): summary sent a clear signal for further interest-rate

There was a bit of a brief hiccup in the handover from Asia to Europe but the mood music is starting to feel better again now. S&P 500 futures are now up 0.4% and Nasdaq futures up 0.7% so far on the session. And that is also keeping European indices in good spirits, with the

The Reserve Bank of New Zealand meeting on August 14 is very much ‘live’. decision due at 2pm New Zealand time which is 0200 GMT which is 2200 US Eastern time on the 13th The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) is expected to keep its key cash rate at 5.50% at next Wednesday’s meeting.

What I am hearing from people on the ground is that in the labor market, people are cutting back on hiring, but not firing.Job growth has settled down, but still adding jobsTheis is a lot more labor supply than thought a year or two ago.The math of that suggests unemployment rate goes up. What would

Fundamental Overview The Nasdaq bounced strongly from the lows yesterday following good US Jobless Claims figures as the data quelled some of the fears around the labour market after the weak US NFP report last Friday. The market pricing for rate cuts eased a bit but remains quite elevated with a 55% probability of a

The US Jobless Claims yesterday came out much better than expected. This is the most timely indicator we have on the labour market.The market reacted strongly, with the S&P 500 (chart below) rallying by 2.4% in a single day, which was the best one day gain since November 2022. WHY THE MARKET REACTED LIKE THAT?

The low around 15 minutes earlier saw the index down by around 0.9% as price volatility continues to stick around. The selling pressure coincides with the index failing to push up against the 38.2 Fib retracement level of the plunge since July. Besides that, the drop here matches up with a fall in US futures

Rate cuts by year-end Fed: 102 bps (54% probability of 50 bps rate cut at the upcoming meeting) ECB: 65 bps (87% probability of rate cut at the upcoming meeting) BoE: 42 bps (67% probability of no change at the upcoming meeting) BoC: 73 bps (90% probability of rate cut at the upcoming meeting) RBA:

Prior +2.2%HICP +2.6% vs +2.6% y/y prelimPrior +2.5% Core annual inflation remains at 2.9% so the ECB will definitely be hoping for more progress in the coming months to keep up with their rate cut cycle. This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

Via a note from Rabobank in London: AUD … wild ride in the past few weeksbetween mid-July and the start of this week, AUD/USD retraced all of the gains that it had made since late April, before showing signs of recoveryreasons for the swings are linked both to a change in expectations regarding RBA policy

The CPI from China for July is expected to tick a little higher m/m and jump y/y. At the wholesale price level the PPI is expected to remain in deflation. Not on the calendar screenshot but I expect Australian business confidence for July at 0130 GMT (9.30 pm US Eastern time). This the National Australia

Clearer lines are being drawn between the two major parties in the US presidential election. Republican nominee Trump spoke on CNBC: “I feel the president should have at least (a) say in there,” Trump said during a news conference at his Mar-a-Lago residence in Florida. “Yeah, I feel that strongly. I think that in my

Earlier this week Westpac pushed back their RBA rate cut call to February 2025, from previously in November 2024 Expects a conservative pace of 25bp cuts per quarterNew terminal rate forecast of 3.35%, up from 3.10% previouslyRBA seen as more cautious, requiring stronger evidence before easingBank cites RBA’s new analytical tools and focus on full

The European session is once again empty as we will just get the final inflation readings for Germany and Italy. Moving on to the American session, we will get the Canadian jobs report which is the only notable event for today. 12:30 GMT/08:30 ET – Canada July Labour Market report The Canadian Labour Market report

After the better showing in risk sentiment yesterday and the steadier tone earlier today, it looked like we were set for a calmer approach to European trading. That is until the last half hour or so, where US futures have turned lower and Japanese stocks also took a quick dip. It’s still early in the

Major currencies are seeing light changes for the most part, with even USD/JPY keeping under a 100 pips range for once in Asia this week. Overall, the dollar is marginally softer but the changes for the day are leaving a lot to be desired. Here’s a snapshot of dollar pairs currently: The US weekly initial

Societe Generale says it too soon to call a US recession despite the concern in markets this week over a hard landing. “The largest moves of the last week happened in Japan and Technology, suggesting that Tech valuation and carry-trade reversals are a more convincing explanation for the volatility than the rising probability of a

People’s Bank of China USD/CNY reference rate is due around 0115 GMT. The People’s Bank of China (PBOC), China’s central bank, is responsible for setting the daily midpoint of the yuan (also known as renminbi or RMB). The PBOC follows a managed floating exchange rate system that allows the value of the yuan to fluctuate

Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago President Austan Goolsbee: The Fed watches the markets, but they don’t drive policy.The question is if the job market will hold, or keep worsening. We need to see more than payrolls and more than one month.We are getting back to more normal conditions in the US economyPolicy is tightWhatever the

Richmond Fed Pres Barkin:Hearing from people, that companies are not hiring but not firingS&P index has its best day since November 2022. Happy days are here again.Mexico cuts rates by 25 basis points vs expectations of a splitThe US Treasury auctions off $25 billion of 30 year bonds at a high yield of 4.314Bitcoin is

Julius Baer analyst on the BOJ, JPY and Japnese equities. no need for the Bank of Japan to raise interest rates much more than it has doneonce markets settle 500-odd basis point interest rate differential between JPY and USD will once again be primarydo not see the yen appreciating from here The supports for Japan’s

The People’s Bank of China set the onshore yuan (CNY) reference rate for the trading session ahead. USD/CNY is the onshore yuan. Its permitted to trade plus or minus 2% from this daily reference rate.CNH is the offshore yuan. USD /CNH has no restrictions on its trading range.A significantly stronger or weaker rate than expected

Sumitomo Mitsui Trust Asset Management (SuMi TRUST) on Japanese equities – looking for a bounce back after the sharp sell-off: Japanese equity market dropped sharply in early August on weak US data and yen strengthSuMi TRUST strategist Hiroyuki Ueno sees this as temporary correctionYen appreciation driven by diverging Fed/BOJ policy expectationsUeno: Market should return to

US CPI data is due on Wednesday August 14 at 0830 US Eastern time: Via Bank of America economists, they expect that U.S. inflation in July will show a slight uptick. Nevertheless, it’ll remain supportive of a potential Fed rate cut in September. BoA notes that June’s CPI figures came in lower than anticipatedexpects some

It will be good to HEAR what Dem nominee Harris will do in a debate situation, and also what policies she will pursue. The Dem convention is coming up and that should give her a boost (as a convention normally does). However, those are largely canned speeches (unless going off the screen). How well does

The US Treasury is set to auction $25 billion in 30-year bonds today, following yesterday’s 10-year auction that saw a substantial 3.0 bp tail. Analysts at BMO suggest caution as the last four instances of a 10-year auction tailing by at least two basis points were followed by tails in the subsequent 30-year auctions. Since

Last weekend earlier this week, bad news was bad news. Today there was good news in the form of initial jobless claims ticking back to 233K from 250K last week. The expectations was for 240K. That has helped to push stocks higher as good news is good news. A snapshot of the market is showing:

The weekly US initial jobless claims report is due out today and expected to decline to 240K from 249K. Last week, claims jumped to the highest in a year but there was a skew from Hurricane Beryl that may reverse this week. If so, it could signal ongoing strength in the economy. But if claims

Once again, the European session is going to be empty on the data front and the focus will be on the American session when we will get the latest US jobless claims figures. We will also hear from Fed’s Barkin late in the day and the market will likely be attentive to comments regarding the

The U.S. Treasury will auction off $25 billion of 30 year bonds at the top of the hour. The auction results will be compared to the six month averages of the major components. Those six month averages show Tail: -0.5 basis pointsBid to cover: 2.41XDealers: 15.2%Directs: 18.4%Indirects 66.4% The high yield last month came in

High yield 4.314%WI Level at the time of the auction 4.283%Tail 3.1 basis points vs 6 month average of -0.5 basis pointsBid to cover 2.31X vs 6 month average of: 2.41XDealers 19.18% vs 6 month average of 15.2%Directs 15.5% vs 6-month average of 18.4%Indirects 65.32% vs 6-month average of 66.4% AUCTION GRADE: F Sorry it

The bad 30 year bond auction did not deter the buyers in the stocks today. There is too much momentum today. The major indices are trading to new highs: Dow industrial average is currently up in 635 points or 1.64% at 39398.23. The high Price reached 39433.52.S&P index is up 117.5 points or 2.225% at

Its heading towards 8.30am in Tokyo and USD/JPY is already on the move. Its been as low as 146….. 146.23 (but I can’t keep up!) …. nope 146.21 …. Nope …. Well, you get the idea. Get ready for another wild session: Yen & Nikkei traders alert warning – more coming from the Bank of

Fundamental Overview The surprisingly weak US NFP report last Friday triggered risk-off flows. Interestingly, while many major currencies weakened against the USD, the Euro strengthened a lot which reminded the famous words from former ECB’s President Draghi when he said “The Euro is like a Bumblebee. This is a mystery of nature because it shouldn’t

What a day Wednesday was in Japan: ForexLive Asia-Pacific FX news wrap: BOJ’s Uchida triggered a sharp yen declineThe Bank of Japan is in no mood to tangle with equity markets and it’s safe to re-enter the carry trade. We will be hearing more from the Bank of Japan today, with its ‘Summary of Opinions’

The USDCAD shifted its technical bias to the downside yesterday after re-entering the “red box” and breaking below a swing area near the top of this range (between 1.3784 and 1.3803). The “red box” largely defined the trading range from mid-April to mid-July, before the price broke higher, reaching the year’s high at 1.39458. Yesterday’s

The Atlanta Fed GDPNow growth estimate for Q3 remained unchanged at 2.9%. It is still early in the quarter but grow remains solid: In their own words: The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the third quarter of 2024 is 2.9 percent on August 8, unchanged from August 6

Bitcoin’s price surged over 8% today, marking its largest gain since March 2023. Currently trading at $59,819, up $4,666 for the day, the digital currency has experienced significant volatility over the past 10 trading days. It reached a high of $70,016 on July 29 and a low of $49,577 on Monday, a 29.19% decline over

Politico with the update: US officials say Iran may be rethinking launching a multi-pronged attack on IsraelWhile they do anticipate an Iranian response to the Haniyeh killing, think Tehran seems to have recalibratedUS does not expect an imminent attack “U.S. officials have sent messages to Tehran through various intermediaries that if the blast that killed

It is already August which means the final countdown to the Finance Magnates Pacific Summit (FMPS) is now officially underway. The biggest event in the Asia-Pacific (APAC) is slated to be held in Sydney, Australia on August 27-29, drawing the industry’s elite, as well as thousands of attendees, traders, and more. Prospective attendees can expect

The risk mood continues to improve in US markets with the S&P 500 extending gains to 1.6%. In turn, that’s helped to boost AUD/USD to the best levels of the day. The pair is now up 55 pips and threatening the weekly high and the best levels since July 24. A break higher could catalyze

Asia-Pacific (APAC) is one of the world’s fastest growing online trading markets. As it continues to grow, Asia’s trading software market is expected to hit a staggering $19.68 billion by 2031, expanding at a CAGR 7.84% between 2024 – 2031. In this context, iFX EXPO Asia 2024 presents itself as a launching board for industry

Today, European stock markets showed mixed results today: German (DAX): Closed at 17,680.41, up by 65.25 points or +0.37%).France CAC: Ended at 7,247.46, down by 18.56 points or -0.26%).UK FTSE 100: Finished at 8,144.98, decreasing by 21.91 points or -0.27%).Spain’s Ibex: Ended at 10,557.99, down by 41.02 points or -0.39%).Italy’s FTSE MIB: Finished at 31,741.92,

Prior was +0.4% (revised to +0.3%)Inventories +0.2% vs +0.2% expectedPrior inventories +0.2% This is a lower tier indicator but it’s a poor number and could sap some USD strength in a market that is very sensitive to data. This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

Prior week 249K (revised to 250K)initial jobless claims 233K versus 240K estimate. 4-week moving average of initial jobless claims 240,750 vs 238,250 last weekContinuing claims 1.875M versus 1.870M expectedPrior week continuing jobless claims 1.877M (revised to 1.869m)4-week moving average of continuing claims 1.862M vs 1.855M last week There was a decrease of 17K from the

Speech by Michele Bullock, RBAGovernor: Economic Conditions in Post-Pandemic Australia with a Regional Lens Live link here On Tuesday we got the latest decision from the RBA (on hold) and a press conference from Bullock. She, and the Board, are perceived as hawkish. Its doubtful there will be another rate hike, but a cut appears

Today’s vibrant market landscape: An overview The stock market today tells a tale of contrasting sectors with standout performances particularly noted in the pharmaceutical industry. As observed from today’s stock heatmap, while some sectors witnessed modest gains, others struggled to keep pace. Notably, Lilly (LLY) rocketed up by 13.24%, shining brightly as today’s star performer.

Fundamental Overview The market is still licking its wounds as the price action remains tentative ahead of the US Jobless Claims today. The ugly US ISM Manufacturing PMI and the weak US NFP report of last week are still fresh in everyone’s mind. At the moment the market is expecting the Fed to cut rates

The US dollar has extended further following the initial jobless claims report. The big winner is USD/JPY, which is now nearly 150 pips higher as yields rise. US 10-year yields are up 4 basis points and trading just above 4% after falling as low as 3.67% on Monday. Yesterday, the Bank of Japan retreated from

It is not a good close for the major indices today. The major indices are all closing near the lows for the day. A look at the closing levels shows: Dow industrial average fell -234.17 points or -0.60% at 38763.52S&P index fell minus 40.54 points or -0.77% at 5199.51NASDAQ index fell -171.05 points or -1.05%

Yesterday’s bitcoin slump foreshadowed trouble in the broader risk trade and that catalyzed late in the day with a drop in US equities. Today it’s the opposite. Bitcoin rallied early and has stayed strong with equities now catching up. Bitcoin is up $3570 to $58,795, or 6.7%. It’s still a long way back to the

Tickmill, the renowned multi-asset broker founded by experienced traders, has always made excellent trading conditions the main characteristic by which it wants to be recognised. Aside from trade execution and low costs, Tickmill understands that creating a safe and trusted environment for traders requires more than meeting the standards imposed by the many institutions with

The natural-gas burning parts of North America are likely to experience a colder winter if La Niña emerges. Today, US weather forecaster CPC pegged the odds of La Nina emerging in Sept-November at 66% and persisting throughout the winter. There is plenty of variability but during La Niña, the Northern United States and Southern Canada

The US dollar climbed broadly higher after initial jobless claims fell in the latest week. Claims at 233K were below the 240K expected and the one-year high of 250K last week. In response to the report, EUR/USD fell to 1.0900 from 1.0930. The drop in the pair challenges this week’s lows and I would expect

S&P 500 futures are down 0.3% while Nasdaq futures are down 0.1% currently. Meanwhile, 10-year Treasury yields are down 5.8 bps to 3.909% as traders are staying more vigilant on the session. USD/JPY is down 0.4% to 146.15 but is off session lows of around 145.65, helped by another bounce off its 100-hour moving average.

The cautious mood holds so far in European morning tradeJP Morgan raises probability of US recession by year-end to 35%, up from 25% previouslyMagnitude 7.1 earthquake hits Japan’s southern region, tsunami warnings issuedAUD/USD holds higher for now, traders watching risk sentiment for the next clueEuropean indices marked lower at the open todayWhat are the main

The USDCHF is moving higher as yields move higher after the “good news” from the US initial jobless claims this morning (down to 223K from 250K last week). The CHF is also continuing to rid itself of the flight-to-safety flows into the CHF seen over the last month of trading as concerns about global growth,

Comments from analysts at Commerzbank referring to the recent ructions in markets: Federal Reserve is unlikely to endorse expectations that it could cut interest rates more aggressively than previously anticipated at the upcoming Jackson Hole symposiumthis could boost the US dollarCommerzbank says watch U.S. inflation data next week, August 14; if its are higher than

More RBA Gov Bullock – don’t see interest rates coming down quicklyNew Zealand 2-year inflation expectations have dropped to 2.03% (prior2.3%)AUD/USD maintaining its session highs after RBA Governor Bullock hawkish againRBA Governor Bullock: Don’t expect to be back in 2-3% target range until end of 2025Japan finance minister Suzuki says no comment on BOJ Uchida’s

Reserve Bank of Australia Governor Bullock more to come This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

The initial jobless claims came in lower than expectations, and that has helped to push the US dollar higher. In the kickstart video above, I take a look at three of the major currency pairs from a technical perspective – the EURUSD, USDJPY and GBPUSD. What has been the impact from the data and what

Fundamental Overview The Yen lost some ground this week as the market stabilised after the strong rout seen on Monday. Yesterday, we saw some more weakening as BoJ’s Uchida delivered some dovish comments citing the recent volatility in the markets. That helped the global sentiment a bit, but most of the gains were erased soon

Via an interview with JPMorgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon on CNBC: still believes that the odds of a “soft landing” for the economy are around 35% to 40%making recession the most likely scenarioDimon added he was “a little bit of a skeptic” that the Federal Reserve can bring inflation down to its 2% target because

U.S. Treasury sells 10-year notes at a high yield of 3.960%BOC Minutes: Members saw risk consumers could be significantly weaker in 2025 and 2026EIA weekly US crude oil inventories -3728K vs -700K expectedMnuchin says it’s time to kill the 20-year Treasury bondUS June consumer credit outstanding +$8.93 billion vs +$10.0 billion expectedJapan top currency diplomat

Japan finance minister Suzuki: Monetary policy specifics are up to the BOJ to decideNo comments on Bank of Japan Deputy Governor Uchida’s commentsClosely watching market developmentsAim to support wage growth outpacing inflation through various policies Stock market determined by economic situations, forex, corporate activities and various othersAlgorithm trading one of various factors, not a single

Earlier from Bullock: RBA Governor Bullock: Don’t expect to be back in 2-3% target range until end of 2025 AUD/USD maintaining its session highs after RBA Governor Bullock hawkish again More now: Volatility in financial markets does effect sentiment, but not the economyBased on what board knows now, don’t see rates coming down quicklyWe do

Yesterday, it looked like we were poised for a continuation in the risk recovery. That is until a much poorer 10-year Treasuries auction landed here. Demand was soft and that was enough to trigger some reaction in broader markets. US equities turned lower and ended the day at the lows. If anything, it just highlights

I’ll get the Bank of Japan ‘Summary’ posted ASAP This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

Discover how to trade the golden cross and death cross to capture monster trends to bring your profits to the moon The post The Golden Cross And Death Cross (An Essential Guide) appeared first on TradingwithRayner.

As the North American session begins, the CHF (and AUD) is the strongest and the GBP is the weakest. The USD is also weaker to start the US session. Yields are lower on the day (but still near the high for the day) helping the negative bias. The US treasury will complete the coupon auctions

The People’s Bank of China set the onshore yuan (CNY) reference rate for the trading session ahead. USD/CNY is the onshore yuan. Its permitted to trade plus or minus 2% from this daily reference rate.CNH is the offshore yuan. USD /CNH has no restrictions on its trading range.A significantly stronger or weaker rate than expected

The pair is up 0.6% to 0.6559 but the early gains may be one that is fleeting in nature. The overall risk mood is looking rather cautious as we start European morning trade. And if there is a reason for Wall Street to sell off later, it could temper with the optimism in AUD/USD similar

Eurostoxx -0.8%Germany DAX -0.6%France CAC 40 -0.7%UK FTSE -0.9%Spain IBEX -1.0%Italy FTSE MIB -1.2% S&P 500 futures are down 0.1% with Nasdaq futures and Dow futures more flattish currently. The opening changes in Europe tells one of caution and is a bit of a catch up to the losses in Wall Street yesterday. USD/JPY is

Bullock was hawkish earlier on the week: RBA leaves cash rate unchanged at 4.35%, as expectedRBA governor Bullock: Inflation progress has been slow for a year nowRBA governor Bullock: A rate cut is not on the agenda in the near-termThe response to the RBA meeting yesterday is a 25bp rate cut priced for December 2024

There are a couple to take note of on the day, as highlighted in bold. The first ones are for EUR/USD, layered at the 1.0900 and 1.0955 levels. They aren’t significant from a technical perspective but will likely play a role in holding price action in between the recent range of 1.0900 to 1.0940 before

In summary from a Goldman Sachs note on stock market gyrations. Goldman warns stock market selloff may affect GDP growthA 5% equity drop and 21bp fall in 10-year Treasury rate could reduce GDP growth by 12bp over next yearEvery 10% stock market decline estimated to cut GDP growth by 45bpIncluding other asset moves, the total

It’s all gone wrong for risk assets in the latter half of US trading. The selling started after European equities closed but really picked up after a poor US 10-year Treasury auction. That’s boosted rates, lifted the US dollar and is weighing on the Australian dollar. It’s a disappointing turn after the rebound in risk

The firm argues that the softer conditions in the labour market may exceed expectations with early signs of a wave of layoffs. Adding that they see inflation easing further from hereon, thus expecting the Fed to cut by 50 bps in both September and November next. Mind you, the forecast of a 25% recession probability

The storm clouds are brewing again and that is keeping markets on edge as we look towards European trading. There isn’t anything on the economic calendar in the session ahead. So, the attention will turn towards more labour market data from the US in the form of the weekly initial jobless claims. The report will

Fundamental Overview Crude oil sold off pretty heavily in the latter part of last week as we got some very weak US data releases first with the ISM Manufacturing PMI and then with the NFP report. The market eventually bounced back on Monday and extended the gains yesterday with the appointment of the new Hamas

NHK is reporting that the earthquake have triggered tsunami warnings for several regions in the Japanese islands of Kyushu and Shikoku. These warnings are also extended to the Kagoshima and Ehime prefectures, with the Miyazaki prefecture the one impacted the most. The height of the tsunami is estimated to reach 1 metre. The yen reaction

German DAX futures -0.5%UK FTSE futures -0.6% That follows the stronger gains yesterday, which were before the mood music really turned sour in the US. S&P 500 futures are down 0.2% with Nasdaq futures down 0.1%. Sentiment is definitely taking on a more cautious look as we get into the session ahead. This article was

People’s Bank of China USD/CNY reference rate is due around 0115 GMT. The People’s Bank of China (PBOC), China’s central bank, is responsible for setting the daily midpoint of the yuan (also known as renminbi or RMB). The PBOC follows a managed floating exchange rate system that allows the value of the yuan to fluctuate

Claudia Sahm, she who wrote the rules, says the US is not in recession. But this risk of one is elevated. Sahm writes in Bloomberg. Bloomberg is gated, but if you can access its interesting. The gist is in the tweets screenshot below. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

Good morning, afternoon and evening all. Any charts, technical analysis, trade ideas, thoughts, views, ForexLive traders would like to share and discuss with fellow ForexLive traders, please do so: This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

With the way Japanese financial markets are swinging around I suspect the Bank of Japan Summary of Opinions will have an impact. The ‘Summary’ today is of the most recent meeting, when the Bank raised interest rates and announced a trimming of Japanese Government Bond purchases. The Bank of Japan (BOJ) releases a “Summary of

The big swings have begun already: USD/JPY is under 146.00 … its under 145.60!ES and NQ futures are dropping as nerves take hold againUS 10 year yield down to 3.9% (and change)EUR/USD has risen to retest Wednesday’s high near 1.0930AUD, NZD, CAD, GBP are all falling And its barely 8.45am in Tokyo, an hour earlier

ICYMI, Bloomberg (gated) with the report, on Swissmem (the country’s biggest lobby group for manufacturers): The Swiss National Bank must do something fast to keep the franc’s strength from hurting exporterssudden appreciation in the currency is threatening a vulnerable recovery for overseas sales seen in recent monthsdidn’t offer a view on what tools the SNB

U.S. crude oil output rose to a record high of 13.4 million bpd in the week ended August 2 that’s about 100,000 barrels per day (bpd) more than a week earlierand 800,000 barrels more than a year ago The data is from the US Energy Information Administration, published on Wednesday This article was written by

Bank of Japan Summary of Opinions at the Monetary Policy Meeting on July 30 and 31 Several members view economic activity and prices developing in line with BOJ outlookSome see room to raise “significantly low” policy rate, citing negative real rates at 25-year lowsOpinions divided on timing – some want more data, others ready to

Reserve Bank of New Zealand: 2-year Inflation Expectations Q3 2.03% prior 2.33%The two year horizon is the important one for the Reserve Bank of New Zealand, it views this as a reasonable time frame over which its policy changes impact. 1-year 2.4% NZD/USD marked lower on the data, trading around 0.5992 This article was written

We haven’t heard much from Steve Mnuchin since the Trump administration ended but the former Treasury Secretary and Hollywood financier is in the news today. He says that the US should drop the 20-year bond that he introduced. A look at the yield curve today shows why: 10 year 3.95%20 year 4.33%30-year 4.24% That kink

Prior was +11.35B (revised to +13.95B)Revolving -1.5%Non-revolving +3.4% Jamie Dimon was out today saying that credit card delinquencies were stabilizing and that he was optimistic about the consumer. This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

If you read my posts, or watch my videos on Forexlive.com, the 100 and 200 bar MAs are a key and important tool The reason is those MAs are followed by many traders from around the world. Morevoer, they look at those MAs on the hourly, the daily and even the weekly and 5-minute charts.

Suddenly, it’s not a pretty picture in global equity markets. Today’s 10-year Treasury sale was a poor one, pushing yields higher. The bond market has stabilized since but stocks are now at the lows of the day. The price action has bled into FX as well, with the Australian dollar now barely positive. The turn

Tech and health sectors dominate: Exploring today’s U.S. stock market trends Today’s market landscape showcases significant movement across various sectors with particular emphasis on technology and healthcare. Let’s explore these dynamics and provide strategic insights for investors. 🖥️ Technology Sector: A Beacon of Strength The technology sector continues to exhibit strong performance, headlined by advanced

Last week, I highlighted comments from online furniture retailer Wayfair, where executives said that interest rates were biting hard: “Q2 was a dynamic quarter that resulted in another period of share gain, amid continued macro headwinds that are pressuring the ways customers are shopping the category. Customers remain cautious in their spending on the home,

Fundamental Overview The weak US NFP report last Friday triggered risk-off flows. Things got dire on Monday as the Japanese Nikkei dropped 12% overnight and we saw a general selloff in global stock markets. At one point, the markets saw the Fed cutting rates by 136 bps by year-end and some chances of an emergency

Former NY Fed President Bill Dudley is continuing his dovish shift. Until two weeks ago, he was arguing for a higher-for-longer Fed but changed his mind late in July and called for a cut. Now, he’s continuing with that and is out with a column that says the Fed “needs to get to neutral”. “Federal

Closing changes in Europe on the day: Stoxx 600 +1.6%German DAX +1.5%Francis CAC +1.9%UK’s FTSE 100 +1.8%Spain’s IBEX +2.2%Italy’s FTSE MIB +2.4% European stocks gave a bit back late but closed near the highs. Where there is some concern at the moment is in the Nasdaq, which has pared its gain to 1.0%, which is

German DAX futures +0.8%French CAC 40 futures +0.8%UK FTSE futures +0.9% This comes with US futures also keeping in a better spot, although off earlier highs in Asia. S&P 500 futures are up 0.7%, Nasdaq futures up 0.8%, and Dow futures up 0.6% currently. For now, the market is still taking in a reprieve following

The idea of the dollar smile theory is pretty much this: But amid the unwinding of the carry trade since Friday, there is something worth noting about the dollar under these circumstances. The global selloff proved that even with risk aversion in markets, the dollar struggled for the most part. So, what gives? As the

High yield at 3.960%WI level at the time of the auction 3.929%Tail +3.1 basis points versus six month average of 0.1 basis pointsBid to Cover 2.32X vs six month average of 2.52XDealers 17.88% vs six month average of 15.5%Directs 15.9% vs six month average of 17.1%Indirects 66.2% versus six month average of 67.5% AUCTION GRADE:

Spending in 2025 and 2026 could be hit by the number of households likely to be renewing their mortgages at higher ratesSpending per person is expected to recover as rates declined but many households will still face significant debt-servicing costsAgreed to communicate that they would be weighing two-way inflation forecastsSaw less of a chance that

The major US stock indices are giving back some of their gains. Although they are still higher on the day, there has been some damage done technically. Looking at the S&P index, it opened today and moved above its 100-day moving average at 5309.32. The high price for the day reached 5330.64 but has since

As the North American session begins, the NZD is the strongest and the JPY is the weakest. The USD is mixed to mostly higher thanks to the gains in equities. The NZD and the AUD were supported by a weaker JPY and higher stocks. In New Zealand, employment came in little bit stronger than expectations

The USDCAD fell back within the gut of the “red box” that can find the pair for most of April to July. That red box came between 1.3588 and 1.3803. Yesterday the price fell back below the high of that red box and also the high of a swing area between 1.3784 and 1.3803. In

The USDCHF is seeing steady buying today as flight into that safety is unwound with gains in stock and yields moving higher. The panic for Monday is being reversed. Technically, the price is back above a swing area between 0.8549 and 0.8579. The price is also back above the 38.2% retracement of the move down

US stock market futures are pointing higher today after the Bank of Japan walked back its hawkish stance and acquiesced to the market. S&P 500 futures are up 1.1% after a disappointing final hour of trading yesterday. Two stories have my attention: 1) SMCI shares down 14% Super Micro is an AI and datacenter darling

The NZDUSD is moving higher in trading today helped by better employment vs expectations and risk on flows after the BOJ said they don’t need to tighten if markets are unstable. The move to the upside has taking the price above the 100 bar MA on the 4-hour chart, and also the 38.2% of the

Headlines: US futures pull higher as the optimism holdsUSD/JPY extends rebound, draws in key near-term levels againBOJ’s Uchida urges caution when considering timing of next rate hikeBOJ’s Uchida: Markets are still volatile so it is unclear how that will affect outlookECB’s Rehn: Recent market turmoil is an overreaction to uncertainty and thin liquidityGermany June industrial

The broader market sentiment is continuing to recover, with the optimism from yesterday holding up for now. S&P 500 futures are up 1.1% while Nasdaq futures are up 1.4% currently. In the bond market, 10-year yields in the US are up 5 bps to 3.937% at the moment. And in FX, USD/JPY is back up

The data is here: New Zealand Q2 unemployment rate 4.6% (vs. 4.7% expected) In summary, New Zealand’s unemployment rate rose to 4.6% in the April to June quarter economists had forecast a 4.7% unemployment rate And employment increased 0.4% from the prior quarter economists had forecast 0.2% contraction in employment I posted earlier that there

It is desirable for currencies to move in a stable manner reflecting fundamentalsExcessive volatility increases uncertainties, reduces predictability for businessesNo change to Japan’s economic outlook despite recent market volatilityClosely monitoring financial markets with a sense of urgency, and also calmness A 2,000 pips range in a span of a month is probably more than what

The wild swings in Japanese yen pairs are continuing today, this time triggered by remarks from BOJ deputy governor Uchida: BOJ deputy governor Uchida says the Bank’s interest rate can change if neededMore from BOJ dep Gov Uchida: Appropriate to adjust degree of monetary easing Before he spoke, USD/JPY was trading around 144.80 and now

It is not a reaction to fundamental issues with the economyIf confidence in slowing trend of inflation strengthens, rate cuts can continueThe path to inflation target is still bumpy Even so, a repeat of the Friday and Monday rout in markets risks further tightening in financial conditions and could still prompt central banks into action.

Prior was -3436KGasoline +1340K vs -986K expectedDistillates +949K vs +241K expectedRefinery utilization +0.4% vs +0.8% expectedProduction 13.4mbpd vs 13.3mbpd prior WTI crude oil was up $1.40 ahead of this data and has slightly extended its gains since. API data late yesterday showed: Crude +180KGasoline +3310KDistillates +1220K This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

The major US stock indices are opening sharply higher. at 15 minutes after the open, the major indices are showing: Dow Industrial Average average is up 307 points or 0.79% at 39302S&P index is up 75 points or 1.42% at 5315.NASDAQ index is up 309 points or 1.89% at 16666 The small-cap Russell 2000 is

Coincident index 113.7Prior 117.1 After last month’s change to the assessment of the coincident index, that view of “halting to fall” is maintained in June. That despite the drop seen on the month itself, with the leading indicator index cooling slightly after hitting its highest since August 2022 in May. This article was written by

It’s an emotion-driven market right now and bitcoin has been a good forerunner of market sentiment so I’m keeping a close eye on it. In the past 30 minutes or so, bitcoin is down $1000. Ethereum is also down 3% and has given up all of yesterday’s gains and has been a disaster since the

Yesterday, Warton Professor and frequent market commentary Jeremy Siegel was on CNBC calling for an emergency 75 basis point Fed cut followed by another 75 bps in September “at minimum” as the market worries peaked. Today, that sounds like an embarrassing overreaction to a stock market move with the Atlanta Fed Q3 GDP tracker sitting

Fundamental Overview The weak US NFP report last Friday triggered risk-off flows. Things got dire on Monday as the Japanese Nikkei dropped 12% overnight and we saw a general selloff in global stock markets. At one point, the markets saw the Fed cutting rates by 136 bps by year-end and some chances of an emergency

The US Department of Energy plans to buy 3.5 million barrels of crude for the Strategic Petroleum Reserve seeks up to 1.5 million barrels of sour crude for delivery in January 2025a second solicitation will be issued on August 12 for the purchase of about 2 million barrels, also for January 2025 deliveryannouncement comes a

Global broker HFM is excited to introduce their brand-new Refer a Friend program, designed to reward clients for sharing their trading experience with friends and family. Now, clients can earn up to $200 for every new client they refer who registers and trades with HFM! How It Works: Join the Program: Clients sign up for

It’s worth reviewing how far we’ve come in the past 10 days in the bond market. Ten-year Treasury yields were at 4.25% on July 26 before a one-way move drove them as low as 3.66% yesterday. The final leg came after a jump in the unemployment rate in the non-farm payrolls report followed by a

Sarah Hunter, Assistant Governor (Economic), and Natasha Cassidy, Deputy Head of Economic Analysis are appearing before the Australian parliament: Senate Select Committee on the Cost of Living Live link here Earlier: The response to the RBA meeting yesterday is a 25bp rate cut priced for December 2024 This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at

This is one of my favourite strips and it sums up well what has been happening to start the week: It’s all about emotions and extremes. We’ve gone from full-fledged panic and traders pricing in five rate cuts to a modest bounce yesterday. US stocks did see some selling late on but futures are pointing

The New Zealand jobs report is expected to be a poor one, with a net loss of jobs and a leap higher for the unemployment rate. The New Zealand economy has shrunk under prolonged high interest rates from the Reserve Bank of New Zealand in its battle to drive inflation lower. The pivot from the

Federal Reserve Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) comments from Nick Timiraos Most sell-side economists and other professional Fed watchers expect the Fed to cut rates by a quarter point at each of its three remaining policy meetings this year. But there’s greater skew now as a few see the likelihood of larger moves This article

Prior -2.5% Slight delay in the release by the source. Looking at the breakdown, there were increases in the production of capital goods (+2.5%), intermediate goods (+2.1%), construction (+0.3%), and energy (+2.9%). This was offset by a decline in the production of consumer goods (-2.4%). This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

In the kickstart video for August 7, I take a look at three the major currency pairs – the EURUSD, USDJPY and GBPUSD – from a technical perspective. In the EURUSD, the price action is up-and-down, with support holding against the low from yesterday and above its rising 100-hour moving average at 1.0894 and it

The AUDUSD ran higher helped by risk on flows and the fact that the RBA is still looking at potentially raising rates. However the sharp rise from the low reached on Monday on the sell off due to the Nikkei’s plunge, has the pair testing its 50% retracement, the low of a swing area and

The Bank of Japan is in no mood to tangle with equity markets and it’s safe to re-enter the carry trade. That was the message from Bank of Japan deputy governor Uchida earlier today. “We won’t hike rates when markets are unstable,” he said, adding that their interest rate path will obviously change if, as

China July exports +6.5% y/y & imports +6.5% also (in CNY terms)ANZ forecast the RBNZ to remain on hold next week, signal a rate cut later in the yearUS equity index futures screaming higher in evening tradeJapan chief cabinet secretary Hayashi says no comment on daily stock marekt movesDidn’t take much for yen to collapse:

Fundamental Overview The Russell 2000 has been on an incredible run ever since the last US CPI report. The goldilocks data was the catalyst for a strong rotation from big cap stocks into the small cap stocks, and the momentum was probably exacerbated by hedge funds facing short squeezes on their small cap hedges as

Fundamental Overview The weak US NFP report last Friday triggered risk-off flows. Things got dire on Monday as the Japanese Nikkei dropped 12% overnight and we saw a general selloff in global stock markets. At one point, the markets saw the Fed cutting rates by 136 bps by year-end and some chances of an emergency

Posting this ICYMI. Chinese state media (China Central Television ) with the info: Tesla China recalls 1.68 million cars Tesla to fix software in 1.7 mln imported model S, model X, China-made model 3, model Y vehicles under this China product recall Sounds like someone spends too much time on Twitter. This article was written

And despite all the volatility, AUD/USD is now roughly flat in August trading when accounting for the slight rise today. The pair was in a rough spot earlier on Monday as it briefly fell to its lowest since November last year. But from the daily chart, the April low held and we’re seeing a double-bottom

There is one to take note of on the day, as highlighted in bold. However, there is a major caveat attached to it. That considering it is one for USD/JPY and price action there is extremely volatile as we’re witnessing a ~350 pips range already so far today. As such, the expiries may not factor

Market index 215.1 vs 201.2 priorPurchase index 133.9 vs 132.8 priorRefinance index 661.4 vs 570.7 prior30-year mortgage rate 6.55% vs 6.82% prior The average rate of the most popular US home loan took a plunge last week after the drop in yields on Friday, alongside signals from the Fed to cut rates. The massive plunge

I’ve been closely watching bitcoin today as a barometer for sentiment and a pre-cursor to moves in equities, particularly in the Nasdaq. Earlier, we saw a jump in BTC to $57,000 and that optimism is bearing out in stocks. Big winners include some of the biggest losers yesterday, particularly chipmakers. Nvidia is up 6.7% to

Goldman Sachs Group Inc. Chief Executive Officer David Solomon in an interview:confident the US economy will avoid a recessionFederal Reserve is unlikely to implement an emergency rate cutdoes not anticipate any significant economic developments before Septembercurrent economic data and signals from the Federal Reserve suggest stabilitymay be one or two rate cuts this fall On

Prior €24.9 billion The German trade surplus narrowed in June as exports were marked down by 3.4% on the month. That is more than the 1.5% decline estimated. Meanwhile, imports were seen up 0.3% in June. This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

Prior -€7.99 billion; revised to -€7.72 billion The French trade deficit narrowed in June as exports were seen up 3.2% on the month while imports were flat. Ever since recovering from the energy price shock amid the Russia-Ukraine conflict, the trade balance has been trending at more normal levels now. Here is the trend: This

The People’s Bank of China set the onshore yuan (CNY) reference rate for the trading session ahead. USD/CNY is the onshore yuan. Its permitted to trade plus or minus 2% from this daily reference rate.CNH is the offshore yuan. USD /CNH has no restrictions on its trading range.A significantly stronger or weaker rate than expected

Eurostoxx +0.5%Germany DAX +0.6%France CAC 40 +0.4%UK FTSE +0.6%Spain IBEX +0.5%Italy FTSE MIB +0.7% The mood music is a better one today as markets are looking calmer since yesterday. US indices did see some late selling into the close but that hasn’t put too much of a dent to the overall mood. S&P 500 futures

Fundamental Overview The global market rout on Monday eventually weighed on gold. The reasons for the drop lie in the movement of real yields and liquidations due to the need of cash in extreme scenarios. In the big picture, real yields are falling, which is a good thing for gold, but in extreme cases when

There are now more factors that require being cautious, when thinking of next rate hike timingMarket volatility is very largeWill keep a close eye out on the moves and their impact on the economy, pricesThinks that stock markets will calm down at some point to reflect earnings, Japanese economyThere is no gap in views between

A strong close in US equities today would have signalled the ‘all-clear’ for risk assets. Instead, a 2.5% gain going into the final hour of trading was whittled down to 1% at the close. Closing changes: S&P 500: +1.0%Nasdaq Comp: +1.0%Russell 2000: +1.5%DJIA: +0.8%Toronto TSX Comp: -0.9% (was closed for holiday yesterday) This article was

A lot has been said about the “carry trade” liquidation that helped contribute to a -12.4% decline in the Nikkei 225 on Monday. There are some that think the unwind is just getting started. In this video, I take a look at the weekly chart of four JPY pairs – the USDJPY, GBPJPY, EURJPY and

Bank of Japan deputy governor Uchida, comments here: BOJ deputy governor Uchida says the Bank’s interest rate can change if needed USD/JPY jumping, Nikkei higher also. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

New Zealand jobs report for Q2 2024, better than expected pretty much all round. There had been some expectations of an RBNZ rate cut at their meeting next week, August 14. At the margin this takes that expectation down a notch. NZD/USD has been marked immediately higher (I’m posting separately on this). NZD/USD has been

Prior -0.2% The annual growth rate of house prices also increased further to 2.3%, which is the highest since January. The typical UK property is now seen costing £291,268. Halifax notes that they “anticipate house prices to continue a modest upward trend throughout the remainder of this year”. This article was written by Justin Low

Snippet from UBS on the BOJ and yen: USD/JPY not stabilised yetmany Japanese companies expect the average USD/JPY exchange rate to be close to 145but there is scope for significant swings stillsee 140 to 150 as the new trading rangesay that there is reluctance to build substantial positions in yen crosses right nowon the Bank

There is an expectation that the Bank’s damping could increase today – People’s Bank of China USD/CNY reference rate is due around 0115 GMT. The People’s Bank of China (PBOC), China’s central bank, is responsible for setting the daily midpoint of the yuan (also known as renminbi or RMB). The PBOC follows a managed floating

A brief summary of the Reserve Bank of New Zealand preview from ANZ, Anz expect the RBNZ to hold rates at the August 14 meeting, but signal potential cut later this year ANZ expects RBNZ to keep OCR at 5.50% next weekBank sees potential for RBNZ to signal OCR cut later in 2024Recent data points

It’s going to be another boring day on the data front as the calendar is basically empty. The mood in the markets has been slowly improving as the volatility cooled off and we haven’t got any negative catalyst in the meantime. For now, it might be the classic scenario of “no news is good news”.

US stocks finish 1% higher but sellers took over in the final hourThe Fed put workedUS treasury auctions off $58 billion of 3-year notes at a high yield of 3.810%European equity close: A modest reboundAtlanta Fed GDPNow Q3 tracker 2.9% vs 2.5% priorUS total household debt rose 0.6% in Q2 – NY FedNew Zealand GDT

If market volatility changes our view on prospects for achieving price goal, then that will influence our decision on rate hike pathHard to say how long it will take to gauge impact of market rout on economy, pricesBut BOJ has the advantage of being able to choose when to hike in a moderate rate hike

Despite the ongoing volatility in Japanese financial markets US equity index futures are on approach to their Tuesday high in evening trade. Thesecharts are from our charting app, which is free and can be found at this link This is a CFD tracking NQ: And, ES equivalent: This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at

Inbfo comes via Reuters on the introduction of Goldman Sachs’ new Financial Stress Index (FSI): tightened over the last two days remains at relatively normal levels by historical standardsmost of the tightening has come from surprisingly high levels of expected volatility in the equity and bond markets, Goldman economists said in a client noteconditions in

Ruling Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) big gun Shigeru Ishiba is viewed as a prime potential candidate for Japan’s next prime minister. He has publicly endorsed the Bank of Japan’s policy of gradually raising interest rates: Bank of Japan is on the right policy track to gradually align with a world with positive interest rates”The negative

ING on what to expect: We are looking for high single-digit to low double-digit growth for exports, and for imports to recover slightly back to positive territory after falling into contraction in June. The year-on-year numbers will benefit from a favourable base effect but overall momentum looks to be weakening with new export orders in

The New Zealand dollar benefitted earlier from the better than expected jobs report: New Zealand Q2 unemployment rate 4.6% (vs. 4.7% expected)NZD/USD marked higher after the better than expected jobs report from New Zealand The gain for the NZD has been consolidated. AUD is still eyeing the ‘hawkish’ RBA The response to the RBA meeting

Via oilprice.com: — Expectations I had seen centred on: Headline crude -0.7mn barrelsDistillates +0.2 mn bblsGasoline -1 mn — This data point is from a privately-conducted survey by the American Petroleum Institute (API): It’s a survey of oil storage facilities and companies The official report is due Wednesday morning US time. The two reports are

Data via Japan’s Ministry of Finance shows that: Japan currency intervention amounted to 5.92 tln yen on April 293.87 tln yen on May 1April 29 intervention was a single-day record, exceeding the previous record 5.62 tln yen on October 21 2022 They are in the money, finally: I recall those days when every man and

Good morning, afternoon and evening all. Any charts, technical analysis, trade ideas, thoughts, views, ForexLive traders would like to share and discuss with fellow ForexLive traders, please do so: This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

Westpac Financial Markets Strategy team on the Reserve Bank of Australia yesterday. This in brief: The RBA meeting was seen as slightly hawkish, a slower return to the inflation target, as it remains more persistent and ‘approaches’ rather than ‘hits’ the target.OIS markets, which have completely changed their risk profile in the last few weeks,

Bank of Japan deputy governor Uchida spoke: BOJ deputy governor Uchida says the Bank’s interest rate can change if neededUSD/JPY surging on Ushida speechMore from BOJ dep Gov Uchida: Appropriate to adjust degree of monetary easing The comments sound like a Bank mulling pulling back on hikes. This is pretty clear, via Bloomberg: And, if

The market is in a calmer mood once again today, looking to keep a steadier tone overall. Traders are taking a breather from the Monday rout although the air of optimism did get a bit thin for a while yesterday. But Wall Street finished stronger, despite some selling late into the close. And that’s providing

Via a Goldman Sachs note on the volatility in equities this week: Could this turn into a bear market? This, in our view remains unlikely. Ultimately most bear markets are a function of recessionary fears as it is economic contractions that lead to profits falling. While our US economists have increased their probability of recession

China trade data for July 2024 Yuan terms: Exports +6.5% y/y prior +10.7% Imports +6.5% y/y prior -0.6% Trade Balance +600bn yuan prior +703.7bn — In terms of US dollars: Trade Balance USD 84.65bn expected 99.0bn, prior 99.05bn Imports +7.2% y/y expected +3.5%, prior -2.3% Exports +7.0 y/y expected +9.7%, prior +8.6% — This article

Bank of Japan deputy governor Uchida If economy, prices move in line with projections, it is appropriate to adjust degree of monetary easing degree, speed of fx moves’ impact on prices bigger than in past weak yen and subsequent rise in import costs pose upside risks to inflationShort-term interest rate, at 0.25%, is still very

Japan chief cabinet secretary Hayashi is probably eyeing the impact of Uchida’s loose lips: Didn’t take much for yen to collapse: BOJ official says won’t raise rates if mkt unstableBOJ deputy governor Uchida says the Bank’s interest rate can change if neededUSD/JPY surging on Ushida speechMore from BOJ dep Gov Uchida: Appropriate to adjust degree

Comments from chief investment officer of HSBC’s private bank conveyed via a Reuters report ICYMI: In technology, the froth has been removed from the valuationsWe do believe that AI and technological innovation more broadly will endure, will continue to create productivity gains… We don’t flee from itThere are opportunities in technology, and technology is not

Bank of Japan deputy governor Uchida Our interest rate path will obviously change if, as a result of market volatility, our economic forecasts, view on risks and likelihood of achieving our projection changeJapan is not in an environment where we would be behind the curve unless we hike rates at set paceWe won’t hike rates

A dour view from Greenlight Capital’s David Einhorn in a note to investors: From a market perspective, we don’t think it matters very much who wins “The economic policies of both parties are remarkably similar. Both favour large deficits despite a strong economy. We believe this supports our ongoing expectations of higher secular inflation in

USD/CAD is down 130 pips from yesterday’s high. More importantly, it’s back below the tops of the long-term range in what could be another rejection of the long-term tops just below 1.40. Zooming out to the weekly chart shows the importance of resistance in the 1.39-1.40 range as that’s blocked the path of this pair

The S&P index is trading near highs up 115 points or 2.23% at 5301.95. The high price reached 5303.17 so far. That gets the price within 5.6 points of its key 100-day moving average. That moving average level comes in at 5308.75. The price last Friday bottomed near that level and bounced into the close.

US equity futures gave back much of their gains ahead of the open as the market is reluctant to shake off the recent wave of angst. Most-recently US 2-year yields dipped to the lows of the day at 3.91%. Earlier they bounced off of 4%. When I look at that short-term chart, I worry there

The Nasdaq index is trading at a new high end in the process is testing that key swing area between 16442 and 16539. The current prices at 16495 up 295 points or 1.82%. Getting above and staying above that area would have traders looking toward its 100 day moving average at 16880.48. For the S&P

Prior was +0.4%Whole milk powder +2.4% This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

With the policy move from the Bank of Japan to hike its cash rate helping to push the unwind of the yen carry trade, massively strengthening the JPY, and massively weakening Japanese stocks, this speech should be well worth listening to. Its scheduled for 2130 US Eastern time on Tuesday, which is 0130 GMT on

Fundamental Overview The weak US NFP report last Friday led to a key breakout in the USDJPY pair which eventually triggered another deleveraging in the Yen carry trades. Things got dire yesterday as the Nikkei dropped 12% overnight and we saw a general selloff in global stock markets. This led to risk-off flows and at

High yield 3.810%WI level at the time of the auction 3.812%Tail -0.2bps vs six with average of 0.0 basis pointsBid to cover 2.55X versus six-month average is 2.57XDirects (a measure of domestic demand) 20.3% six-month average is 18.5%Indirects (a measure of international demand) 64.4% six-month average is 65.0%Dealers 15.4% vs six-month average is 16.5% AUCTION

The major US stock indices are moving higher in early US trading with the S&P up near 1%. The NASDAQ and is up around 0.60%. Having said that, there are some key levels in play that would help define either more bullish or more bearish for each of these broad indices after yesterday’s sharp declines

ICYMI – A snippet via the news wires overnight from Capital Economics: Fed needs to do at least a verbal intervention to calm down financial marketsFedspeak might avoid an emergency rate cut”At this point it’s really about restoring market functioning–they could damp things down with a few well placed verbal interventions, it wouldn’t necessarily require

Tech sector shines amidst fluctuating market: A Detailed Examination Today’s stock market paints a striking image of resilience and volatility across different sectors, with the technology sector leading the charge, showcasing notable gains primarily propelled by Nvidia (NVDA), which saw an uptick of 3.22%. This performance starkly contrasts with the consumer electronics giant Apple (AAPL),

The USDCAD has had a volatile up and down day, and the downs have sent the pair into a familiar swing area and also back near the high of an up and down area that defined the trading range from April until July. Today, the first low for the day found support buyers in that

The NZDUSD moved sharply lower yesterday on the back of the meltdown in the Asia-Pacific stock market. The move to the downside saw the price reach a new low for the year and 0.58488, but that was only by three pips before snapping back to the upside. The run higher extended toward its falling 100

The U.S. Treasury will auction off $58 billion of 3-year notes at the top of the hour. The components of the auction compared to their six-month averages, will determine success or failure. Bid to cover six-month average is 2.57XTail six-month average is 0.0 basis pointsDirects (a measure of domestic demand) six-month average is 18.5%Indirects (a

Japan chief cabinet secretary Hayashi says wage rises will spread in JapanBank of Japan Governor Ueda to attend parliament for hearing on stock market volatilityAustralian job ads fall in July, the sixth straight m/m dropReminder – 4 huge events coming from the RBA: Policy decision, Bullock, Statement, HunterJapan finance minister Suzuki – Seeing bright aspects

The AUDUSD moved higher after the RBA rate decision where Gov. Bowman said that the board did discuss a rate hike and would be willing to take rates higher if the inflation continues. That fundamental view pushed the AUDUSD above its 200-hour moving average (green line in the chart below) but momentum could not be

As the North American session begins, the USD is the strongest and the JPY is the weakest. It is a rebound day. Yields have moved higher. Stocks are higher. The USD is higher. Kickstarting the rebound is the Nikkei rebounded 10.23% its best day since October 2008 which is just a day after plunging 12.4%

The US stocks are opening higher but modestly sold compared to the shortfalls from yesterday which saw the S&P index fall -3.0%. The NASDAQ fell -3.43%. In comparison, the snapshot of the market 10 minutes into the open is showing: Dow Industrial Average average is up 114.95 points or 0.30% at 38818.23.S&P index is up

On the day: Stoxx 600 +0.2%German DAX -0.1%Francis CAC -0.4%UK’s FTSE 100 +0.1%Spain’s IBEX -0.5%Italy’s FTSE MIB -0.7% The highs of the day in the STOXX 600 were just minutes after the open, it trended lower from there and then bounced late. The overall picture on the chart is a beaten-up market that’s evaluating today.

Leading financial service provider, easyMarkets, has reported robust performance in Q2 2024, driven by high trading volumes in Gold and Nasdaq. Gold prices increased by 20% compared to the same period last year, attracting significant investor interest. Predominant Instruments and Assets During Q2 2024, Nasdaq emerged as the predominant instrument attracting the highest trading volumes

The market was pricing in a good chance of an intermeeting rate cut earlier today but that’s since cooled as markets have somewhat stabilized. We will be closely watching Japanese stocks in the session ahead, particularly banks for signs of contagion. For now, the pricing continues to be aggressive even without any Fed validation that

The decline in total activity eases for another month but it is still at relatively depressed levels. Employment conditions continued to fall as firms remain more pessimistic about the outlook for the sector, even more so than in June. HCOB notes that: “The most positive thing that can be said about these figures is that

Prior month $-75.1 billion revised to $75.0 billionGood trade balance $-96.56 billion versus $-96.84 billion preliminary and $-99.37 billion last monthServices surplus $24.2 billion Details: Exports -1.5% versus -0.5% last monthImports +0.6% versus -0.3% last monthCapital goods imports $80.18 billion versus $77.95 billion last monthTotal exports $265.94 billion versus $262.01 billion last monthTotal imports $339.05

Prior -1.6%; revised to -1.7% Even if you exclude large orders, industrial orders were seen up 3.3% compared to May. That’s a positive development for the manufacturing sector, although it’s not really showing up on the hard data. That considering that the previous months have been relatively poor to be fair. Looking at the details,

ANZ-Indeed survey shows Australian job advertisements fell 3.0% in July m/m prior -2.7% (revised from -2.2%)down 20.8% y/ysixth straight month of month-on-month declines remain 13.3% higher than pre-pandemic levels ANZ comment: “We’ve also seen the share of employers recruiting fall sharply in June to levels last seen during the east coast 2021 lockdowns, while average

After the global selloff in markets since Friday, watchful eyes are turning to the RBA later to see what they have to say about it. But calmer heads so far today will at least help them to sidestep some of that pressure. And they are likely to be able to distract from things and stick

It was a broad sell off across the board in the US stock market. Every Dow stock was lower. The largest decline was Intel with an additional decline of -6.40%. Apple fell -4.85% and Amazon fell -4.07%. The days of Intel in the Dow 30 is likely limited after its fall from grace over the

Prior was -1.93 billionExports $66.65 billion vs $62.45 billion priorImports $66.01 billion vs $64.37 billion prior There is some rare good news here on the Canadian economy as the trade balance improved and volumes of both imports and exports rose, however it was largely due to oil and gold exports. Exports surged 5.5% to $66.65

It’s almost 10 pm in Tel Aviv and eyes are on the Middle East where they will stay in the overnight hours. There have been many leaks suggesting that Iran will attack Israel imminently. Most expect something similar to the last round of drone attacks, which were mostly shot down and none resulted in any

Total household debt hits $17.8 trillionMortgage balances increase $77 billion to $12.52 trillionCredit card balances up $27 billion to $1.14 trillionCredit card balances up 5.8% y/y, nominallyAuto loans up $10 billion to $1.63 trillionTotal borrowing delinquency rate unchanged at 3.2% vs Q1 I don’t see any signs of strain here but this is lagging data.

I would warn that we’re still two months away from reasonable Q3 estimates but this number is certainly a pushback to the recession worries. From the Altanta Fed: The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the third quarter of 2024 is 2.9 percent on August 6, up from 2.5

British Retail Consortium data for July 2024 is mixed: Total retail sales +0.5% y/y -0.2% in Juneaverage rise of 1.4% over the past 12 months Like-for-Like sales -0.3% y/y June was -0.6%Like-for-like sales data strips out the impact of changes in store size. Data also from Barclays, spending on credit and debit cards -0.3% y/y

Here’s a snapshot of things: S&P 500 futures +1.4%Nasdaq futures +1.8%Dow futures +1.0%Russell 2000 futures +1.4%Eurostoxx futures +0.9%German DAX futures +0.7%French CAC 40 futures +0.1%UK FTSE futures +0.8% I would argue that the US ISM services report here played a helping hand in all of this. If anything else, it just served as a reminder

In a strained housing market, prices aren’t the first thing to fall. It starts with swelling inventories and people hoping to find that one motivated buyer. Over time though, a saturated market leads to lower prices. That’s what’s slowly unfolding in Toronto, particularly in the condo and new-construction markets. The Toronto Regional Real Estate Board

Eurostoxx -0.5%Germany DAX -0.2%France CAC 40 -0.7%UK FTSE -0.4%S&P 500 futures +0.3%Nasdaq futures +0.2%Dow futures +0.3% For some context, Nasdaq futures were up roughly 2% in the handover from Asia to Europe. And S&P 500 futures were up around 1.4% then. It’s been a steady decline since as the air of optimism continues to become

The big question circulating in investors’ minds must probably be whether the recent market moves are just a foretaste of a larger downturn or simply a temporary correction. The answer delves into the reasons for the sudden change in market sentiment. Once the latter is understood, it may become clear whether the same scenario will

Bitcoin (BTC) was introduced to the world in 2009 as the first decentralized cryptocurrency. During Bitcoin’s early years, it was mainly adopted by tech enthusiasts as it was not well known or understood by the general public. In 2010, Bitcoin received its first monetary value when someone exchanged 10,000 Bitcoins for two pizzas, a historic

The recent events in the markets reminded me of a great tip from the legendary investor Stanley Druckenmiller. For those who don’t know him, he averaged 30.4% return per year for 30 years with not even a single negative year. In an interview he was asked about what made him so successful in the markets

Fed rate cut pricing has slipped from yesterday and Treasury yields are rising but the overall risk trade is improving and that’s leading to US dollar sales. It’s a broad but modest move at the moment, with the US dollar down around 30 pips from an hour ago. Here’s a chart showing the rebound in

The USDCHF moved to and through a swing area yesterday on the sharp run to the downside. The price moved below a swing area between 0.8448 and 0.84596, but could not sustain downside momentum. The rally into today, moved into a swing area targeted between 0.8549 and 0.8579. In the video yesterday, I outlined that

Bitcoin is at the highs of the day, up more than 3% and above $56,000. The highs yesterday early and today peaked at $56,285 and we briefly edged above that. It’s an impressive rebound after falling below $50,000 several times yesterday but it’s still a long ways from the $70,000 level at the end of

After one of its worst days in history, the Nikkei is now on course for the polar opposite. But even with the over 10% gains today, it is still down 11% thus far in August trading. That puts the rebound we’re seeing into perspective and how sentiment is still very much in a fragile spot.

60-year-old Minnesota Governor Tim Walz has been selected by Democratic Presidential candidate Kamala Harris as her running mate, according to CNN. Right now, PredictIt has the presidential race close to a dead heat. This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

USD/JPY was around 143.70 as US markets closed. Its been up to above 146.35 and back down now to around 145.30 in the time since. Nikkei not to be outdone, its rocketed higher since the cash open. Take care out there folks, stay nimble and small – liquidity is shot to pieces. This article was

Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco President Mary Daly: Risks to fed’s mandates getting in more balanceMinds are open to cutting rates in coming meetingsConcern is that we will deteriorate from current place of balance in jobs report; we don’t see that right nowJuly jobs report reflected a lot of temporary layoffs, hurricane effectWill be

Fundamental Overview The weak US NFP report last Friday led to a key breakout in the USDJPY pair which eventually triggered another deleveraging in the Yen carry trades. Things got dire yesterday as the Nikkei dropped 12% overnight and we saw a general selloff in global stock markets. This led to risk-off flows and at

Many forex traders have experienced positives from basic automated robots, but advanced ‘bots take profits to another level. This guide explains powerful algorithms and strategies and how combining top automated solutions boosts success. Automated trading evolves quickly. Staying ahead requires studying advanced integration and regularly updating technology. With discipline and focus on improvement, you gain

In the kickstart video for August 6, I take a look at the three major currency pairs from a technical perspective – the EURUSD, USDJPY and GBPUSD. EURUSD: The EURUSD stalled the run higher yesterday within key swing area above and below the 1.100 natural resistance level. The subsequent move to the downside has now

The RBA policy announcement is due at 2.30pm Sydney time today, August 6, 2024: 0430 GMT, and 0030 US Eastern timeThe Bank is expected to leave its cash rate unchanged at 4.35%. The accompanying statement is expected to stick pretty much to the previous script, that the Bank remains alert to potential upside inflation risks.Released

S&P 500 futures have also trimmed a chunk of its gains, now seen up just 0.6% on the day. Nasdaq futures are only up 0.8% after having been up roughly 2% at the tail end of Asia trading. There’s still plenty of volatility out there, so the swings here are not anything uncommon. But there’s

Prior 4.35%Inflation remains above target and is proving persistentThe outlook remains highly uncertainThe process of returning inflation to target has been slow and bumpyHigh unit labour costs and inflation persistence suggest there are upside risks to pricesWages growth appears to have peaked but is still above the level that can be sustained given trend productivity

Prior 52.2 A jump in new orders contributed to the quicker rise in construction activity in the UK last month. The good news is that employment conditions also ramped up but price pressures were also seen rising, so that is something to take note of. S&P Global says that: “The election-related slowdown in growth seen

The People’s Bank of China set the onshore yuan (CNY) reference rate for the trading session ahead. USD/CNY is the onshore yuan. Its permitted to trade plus or minus 2% from this daily reference rate.CNH is the offshore yuan. USD /CNH has no restrictions on its trading range.A significantly stronger or weaker rate than expected

Fundamental Overview The weak US NFP report last Friday led to a key breakout in the USDJPY pair which eventually triggered another deleveraging in the Yen carry trades. Things got dire yesterday as the Nikkei dropped 12% overnight and we saw a general selloff in global stock markets. At one point, the markets saw the

Need to stay on course with inflationThere is still a risk that inflation takes too long to return to targetRecent volatility is mostly markets adjusting to financial news/developmentsInterest rates might need to stay higher for longerBut there is also a risk of the other side of the outcome materialisingThere is a high degree of uncertainty

A note via Macquarie bank analysts pointing to opportunity in markets now. Says Monday’s price action was ‘stampede’, citing a definition including “frightened animals or people run together in a wild and uncontrolled way to escape from something”. Says the ‘something’ was a combination of: perception the Federal Reserve is behind the curve in cutting

USD/JPY has jumped 50+ points. It looks like another day of swings for yen crosses coming up! I stuck a couple of eyeballed leaves on this chart, but I’m sure ForexLive folks out there can do better 0 in the comments please! This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

Prior +0.1% The trend in retail sales has been rather bumpy so far this year. Here is the breakdown: This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

In summary from MUFG, saying GBP could weaken further. Citing: long positioning is still excessiveglobal risk aversionexpectations of further UK interest rate cuts being further priced in EUR/GBP update, back into the early 2024 range: This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

Japanese Household Spending for June 2024 +1.1% m/m expected +0.2%, prior -0.3% -1.4% y/y expected -0.9%, prior -1.8% Perhaps rising wages may help ion the data for the months ahead: Japan wages data June 2024: Real wages +1.1% y/y for the first rise in 27 months This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

People’s Bank of China USD/CNY reference rate is due around 0115 GMT. The People’s Bank of China (PBOC), China’s central bank, is responsible for setting the daily midpoint of the yuan (also known as renminbi or RMB). The PBOC follows a managed floating exchange rate system that allows the value of the yuan to fluctuate

We have a pretty dull day today on the data front. In the European session the only highlight is the release of the Eurozone Retail Sales, which is rarely a market moving event. In the American session, we will just get the Canadian Services PMI. The volatility in the markets calmed down a bit, but

Eurostoxx +0.3%Germany DAX +0.5%France CAC 40 -0.1%UK FTSE +0.3%Spain IBEX +0.1%Italy FTSE MIB +0.4% US futures have also lost some luster with S&P 500 futures now up by just 0.9% while Nasdaq futures are up 1.3%. Meanwhile, Dow futures are up 0.6% currently. There’s still an air of relief in markets so far today but

Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco President Mary Daly none of the labour market indicators she looks at are flashing red at present, but she is monitoring carefully Fed is prepared to act as we get more informationIt’s clear inflation is coming down, labor market is slowingI am more confident we are on a sustainable

The ‘sidecar’ is a rule that lets the Korea Exchange (KRX, the operator of SK’s bourse) halt futures trading of equities during periods of extreme market volatility. Triggered when the benchmark KOSPI futures contract moves more than 5% from the previous close.The KRX limits program trading for five minutes as a ‘circuit breaker’ This article

Bank of Japan Governor Ueda to appear in parliament. What’s the bet this won’t end well for him? After severely pressuring him to raise rates will the parliamentarian ***-covering inclduie scapegoating Ueda for the spike down in Japanese stocks? I expect so. Politicians are the same everywhere. The report didn’t give a time for Ueda’s

Fundamental Overview At one point it looked like the worst was behind us as the Nasdaq rallied almost 5% in a single day following the BoJ and FOMC decisions. Unfortunately, the following day we got an ugly US ISM Manufacturing PMI which sent the market into risk-off and defensive positioning into the US NFP report.

Offers no comment on market moves thoughGovernment will work closely with BOJShares view that Japan economy is making a moderate recoveryClosely watching FX moves, discussed it during meetingImportant for FX to move in stable manner, reflecting fundamentals He adds that they held the meeting today as there were big moves in the stock market. That’s

BNZ on their outlook for the Reserve Bank of New Zealand: while we see the first OCR cut in November, we reiterate that we wouldn’t rule out an earlier start to OCR cuts including at the Bank’s August meeting which we see as live. We continue to believe that easier monetary conditions are required. BNZ

The price of crude oil settled down -$0.58 on the day at $72.94. The low for the day reached $71.67. The high reached $74.46. Crude oil futures settle lower for the third consecutive session.Prices settled well above the day’s lows.Impact from the global equities selloff eases, causing a brief midsession move into positive territory. There

Earlier summaries of comments from Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco President Mary Daly are here: Fed’s Daly says minds are open to cutting rates in coming meetings More from Fed’s Daly – monitoring labour market indicators carefully Daly hitting the social media now: This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

Prior 2.4% The unadjusted figure remains steady at 2.3% last month, with the number of registered unemployed persons seen increasing to 107,716 people. That is up from the 104,518 persons in June. This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

Sandilya argues that the pain in markets from yesterday has more room to run, saying “we are not done by any stretch”. Adding that the technical carnage of portfolios means that the sharp moves is not something that will be “easily undone”. As such, he argues that any recovery in carry trades prior to the

The BOJ at work today? Well, definitely someone is in trying to keep the market calm after having seen the Nikkei experience its worst plunge since 1987 yesterday. The index was up roughly 8.8% in the final minute before a sudden jump at the end to close 10.2% higher on the day. A welcome rebound

Morgan Stanley’s CIO and Chief US Equity Strategist Mike Wilson comments. His “Bottom line”: markets are likely to remain vulnerable in the near term until we get better growth data or more comfort from Fed on policy support, neither of which we think is forthcoming soonsupport can also come from cheap valuations, but we don’t

A dead cat bounce? It’s too early to say anything when we’re just settling down after an extremely volatile period in markets. Bid-ask spreads are still adjusting and sentiment is still very much in a fragile state. But for now at least, there is some minor relief after the turbulence since Friday. Nikkei +9.4%S&P 500

There aren’t any major expiries to take note of on the day. For now, trading sentiment will continue to ride on the emotions and so far today it is one mostly of relief. The global market selloff has abated, at least for the time being, but sentiment is still very much fragile. It won’t take

We did consider a rate hike, ready to raise rates if neededWe are vigilant to upside risks to inflationIf inflation does not track the way we are forecasting, we will raise interest ratesHard to draw any red lines on price targets when forecasts are also inherently uncertainNeed to have caution and calm on market volatilityMarket

Japan chief cabinet secretary Hayashi Wage rises will likely spread to part-timers, small businesses toward autumn with strong Shunto results, minimum pay hikes No comment on day-to-day share movesSays important for govt to make a judgement calmly, when asked about volatile Tokyo stocksClosely watching market moves with sense of urgencyWill closely work with BOJ, conduct

As per usual, they will be briefing the press right after the meeting. So, one can look forward to some form of commentary from the bunch. But if anything else, they will try and reiterate the narrative that they are keeping calm and so should markets. The Nikkei is back up over 9% at the

Markets were eerily calm midway through trading today but we’re entering the final hour of equity trading now and there is some fresh pressure. The S&P 500 is down 163 points, or 3% to 5182 after rising as high as 2520 in the midday bounce. I’m keeping an eye on bitcoin as a barometer on

Japan wages data is encouraging Labour Cash Earnings +4.5% y/y expected +2.4%, prior +2.0% Real Cash Earnings +1.1% y/y expected –0.9%, prior –1.3% Spending data less encouraging: Japan data – Household spending for June -1.4% y/y (expected -0.9%) USD/JPY update: This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

ISM services for July 51.4 vs 51.0 expectedUS final July S&P Global services PMI 55.0 vs 56.0 prelimFed’s Goolsbee: Jobs numbers are weaker but it’s not looking yet like a recessionEyes on Iran with a response expected todayWhat’s priced in for the Fed after the latest turmoil Markets: S&P 500 down 3.0%Nasdaq down 3.4%US 10-year

Goldman Sachs on Brent crude oil: “Base case remains that the $75 floor under Brent oil prices will withstand macro fears”But, they add that the uptick in recession risk strengthens their view that the risks to their $75-90 range for Brent skew to the downside, especially for 2025 What uptick in recession risk, you ask.

Update – The index is now up nearly 4% This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

Japan finance minister Suzuki painting an encouraging picture: Will continue to monitor, analyse financial market moves and work closely with relevant authoritiesWill do utmost to manage economy and finance while cooperating with BOJ, and make a judgement on the current situation calmlySeeing bright aspects in Japan’s economy on wages, investment front It’s important to realise

The focus of the calendar for the session ahead is the Reserve Bank of Australia meeting. The Bank is expected to leave its cash rate unchanged. The accompanying statement is expected to stick pretty much to the previous script, that the Bank remains alert to potential upside inflation risks. The data last week showing a

UK Chancellor Reeves speaking in a TV interview. wants to strengthen and deepen trade ties with the USUK tax burden is too high This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

South Korean Finance minister says will take market stabilising measures in the case of excessive volatility. Yen is driving local FX market swings here in the region … eyes on JPY. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

Good morning, afternoon and evening all. Any charts, technical analysis, trade ideas, thoughts, views, ForexLive traders would like to share and discuss with fellow ForexLive traders, please do so: This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

The NZDUSD had a rollercoaster ride today with the pair reaching a new low for the year (but only by 3 or so pips). That low took out lows from April and July. After failing on the brake, the price rocketed higher, erasing all the declines and trading higher on the day. At the high

When I think about modern markets and compare them to the pre-financial crisis era two things stick out: 1) There is far too much leverage This comes up again and again. I thought (hoped?) that people would have learned their lesson in the GFC, covid or the post-covid inflation but it’s getting worse. It’s not

Prior 48.8 Business activity index 54.5 versus 49.6 priorEmployment 51.1 versus 46.1 priorNew orders 52.4 versus 47.3 priorPrices paid 57.0 versus 56.3 priorSupplier deliveries 47.6 versus 52.2 priorInventories 49.8 versus 42.9 priorBacklog of orders 50.6 versus 44.0 priorNew export orders 58.5 versus 51.7 priorImports 53.3 versus 44.0 priorInventory sentiment 63.2 versus 64.1 prior Key components

The EURUSD has moved lower in the US session and had fallen to a key target. That target comes in against the high from a few weeks ago at 1.09477, and a swing high going back to March 21 at 1.0942. That area between 1.0942 to 1.09477 is key today and going forward. IN the

Bitcoin is now up 10% from the intraday low of $49,445 just a few hours ago. On Friday, just after the equity close bitcoin slumped in a sign of what was to come in broader markets. This bounce could be a reversal of that, though it’s still a bruising day. For many months, bitcoin moves

The JPY is the strongest and the AUD is the weakest as the NA session begins. The JPYs move comes as traders continue to exit the “carry trade” where they borrowed JPY to buy, buy buy. The Nikkei fell -12.4% the worst day since Black Monday. The level is now -5.99% on the year. The

Closing changes: Stoxx 600 -2.2%German DAX -2.0%UK FTSE 100 -2.2%French CAC -1.6%Italy MIB -2.4%Spain IBEX -2.3% At the lows, the STOXX 600 was flat for the year but bounced late. This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

It’s pure chaos with Nasdaq futures down roughly 6% currently. Meanwhile, Dow futures are down just a little over 1% on the day. The AI boom has turned into a mini-bust now and the pain looks like it is set to run deeper. The Nasdaq not only broke its 100-day moving average (red line) after

IN the kickstart video from earlier today, when looking at the EURUSD and the USDJPY, I outlined that the 5-minute chart would help discern an extreme. For the EURUSD the price needs to get above its 100 bar moving average and then 200 bar MA to show that the buyers could take back some control.

The USDCHF continued its fall to the downside and in the process broke below support near 0.8549 in 0.8579. The will below their level look toward the next screen you retarget between 0.8448 and 0.8459. That level was also broken on its way to a low of 0.84328. That final break could not be sustained,

Axios with the report Secretary of State Blinken told his counterparts from the G7 countries on Sunday that an attack by Iran and Hezbollah against Israel could start as early as Monday Axios cites “three sources briefed on the call” More: Blinken said it’s unclear what form the retaliation will take. Blinken said the U.S.

The panic in bond markets has steadily reversed in the past 90 minutes. From being down more than 20 bps, US two-year yields are now down just 2 bps on the day. That’s helped to draw a line under USD/JPY and led to some broader US dollar buying. This article was written by Adam Button

The yield curve inverting has an unblemished track record of predicting a US recession since 1955. However it’s not the curve inverting that signals the recession is here; it’s when the curve un-inverts that it means the recession is here. Think of it like a hurricane forecast. The inversion is a storm forming in the

The AUDUSD fell sharply in the Asian session as the currency responded to the Nikkei falling -12.4% along with declines in commodities which tends to weaken the AUD.. Since then, the price has rotated back higher and has now retraced nearly all of the declines. The run higher has also moved back above a swing

As people are increasingly joining the virtual world, the need for solid and seamless digital financial systems is evident. The course of digital payments in virtual and video games is not just about ease of access—it is more about crafting a virtual space where security and attraction possibilities allow players to be absorbed in their

The major US indices are sharply lower but bouncing higher in early US trading. What levels are key on the correction? and WHY technically. For the NASDAQ index watch16442 – 16538. Before that watch 16330 which is the broken 38.2% retracement of the move-up from the October 2023 low. For the S&P index, it gapped

The members of CNBC Halftime Report @HalftimeReport(Josh Brown, Joe Taranova, Steve Weiss) are blasé about the decline today. “None of my clients are talking about selling””If you are leveraged with the carry trade, there is no reason to sell”. That may all be true. What about technically? Technically, the low price today shortly after the

Prior 49.6Composite PMI 49.1 vs 49.5 prelimPrior 48.8 It’s a slight improvement to June, even with the downwards revision to the July figures. New business continues to fall while business confidence hits the lowest for the year, which is a major setback considering that all of this should have at least been underpinned by the

Here is the whole story in the euro right now: Everyone is short the euro and now everyone is covering in a huge delveraging event. Yes, there’s the story about rate differentials but everything is mechanical at the moment and there is a massive amount of money that’s left Europe for US tech stocks or

Fundamental Overview At one point it looked like the worst was behind us as the S&P 500 rallied almost 3% on a single day following the BoJ and FOMC decisions. Unfortunately, the following day we got an ugly US ISM Manufacturing PMI which sent the market into risk-off and defensive positioning into the US NFP

In the kickstart video for August 5, I take a look at the 3 major currency pairs, the EURUSD, USDJPY and the GBPUSD. Focus today is on the sharp falls in stocks, the sharp falls in yields, and declines in other commodities as well. For the USD, the USDJPY is a huge mover to the

Prelim was 56.0Prior was 55.3Composite 54.3 vs 55.0 prior Details: New orders increase for third straight monthEmployment rises for second consecutive monthInput cost inflation accelerates to 4-month highOutput price inflation eases to slowest since January This isn’t recessionary data at all and could help calm the market’s nerves. The ISM services number is due at

It’s all because of this: US July non-farm payrolls +114K vs +175K expected Or at least that is what the narrative is running with. Bloomberg highlighted the Sahm rule after the Fed last week and it was again a focus point after the spike in the unemployment rate on Friday. Alongside the softer non-farm payrolls

The NASDAQ index is off its lows and is moved up toward what should be topside resistance. Their resistance comes between the broken 38.2% retracement at 16330.47, and the high of a swing area up to 16538. The high praise has reached 16368.32 just above the 38.2% retracement but below the height of the swing

The market mood continues to improve after an early washout. US traders have steadied the market after the worst day in Japanese stock market history. The market is trying to make sense of an unwind of the carry trade and rapid, broad deleveraging into an uncertain economy. Helping the situation today was a pair of

White Houses posts US President Biden’s schedule for money. Notably: @ 2:15pm US Eastern time there is a Situation Room meeting with his national security team to discuss developments in the Middle East This comes as: Sec State Blinken said on Sunday that Iran & Hezbollah attack on Israel could start Monday This article was

Judo Bank S&P Global PMIs: Services 50.4Composite 49.9 The flash readings for this are here: Australian flash PMI (July): Manufacturing 47.4 (prior 47.2) Services 50.8 (prior 51.2) Last week we got the final manufacturing PMI, which slightly improved from June but was still firmly in contraction: Australian July Manufacturing PMI (final) 47.5 (prior 47.2) Australia

Prior 52.8Composite PMI 50.2 vs 50.1 prelimPrior 50.9 Even with France underpinning growth amid the Olympics, the euro area economy is seen grinding to a halt in July. The manufacturing recession continues to be the main drag but the services sector is also starting to slow down as well. And that will be a worry

I posted earlier on the comments from the rule’s founder that “not concerned that, at this moment, we are in a recession”: Sahm Rule founder says the US isn’t in recession right now, but risks are rising Not everyone agrees, this from noted economist Rosenberg back on Friday: Rosenberg added further: Pundits claim that there

Australia Melbourne Institute Inflation for July 2024 0.4% m/m prior 0.3% 2.8% y/y prior 3.2% This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

If I did call for an emergency central bank rate cut its not because I think stocks should always go up (even though they do, eventually, by design … I’ll post on survivorship bias some other time) but because this plunge is a clear tightening in financial conditions at a time when rate cuts are

We must be a little careful over-concluding about the jobs report So far, his comments are focused on economic data, not the turmoil in markets. The Fed does need to be forward-looking in setting policyIf you look at domestic purchases, the GDP was relatively stronger than we expectedWe’re going to get a lot of information

The VIX has more than doubled in value today, rising to hit the 50.00 mark now. That’s the highest level since the pandemic and this is the biggest daily jump since February 2018, when there was the whole fiasco involving the XIV and a broader market selloff amid a rout in the bond market at

It’s still a bloodbath in markets but it’s not the kind of reckoning we’re seeing in Japan. A few hours ago, it was looking bleak but some strong hands have waded in. The first hint might have been the bounce in the Australian dollar. That’s been followed by a bounce in Treasury yields, oil and

The Australian dollar is showing some life as it trims today’s decline to 38 pips and more than 100 pips from the lows. That’s a sign that some strong hands are wading into the morass. At this point, it’s all psychological. The market is going to have to wade through some massive option unwinds, fear

He tries offering the same rhetoric by saying that it would be “desirable” for currencies to move stably and reflecting economic fundamentals. If the move was on the other side of the equation, we would’ve seen them coming up with comments like these every few hours. Instead, they’ve not said much of anything of the

The major US stock indices are sharply lower at the open with the Nasdaq leading the way lower in volatile trading. I will put a snap shot but understand it is just a snap shot. Markets are moving fast. 3 minutes into the open: Dow -1.194 points or -2.91% at 38582.77S&P -215.21 points or -4.03%

Crypto update – BTC hovering just over US$53K, ETH is just above US$2280South Korea exchange triggered its ‘sidecar’ on Kospi futuresJapan chief cabinet secretary Hayashi closely watching market moves with sense of urgencyBiden to convene National Security Council on Monday to discuss rising Mid East tensionsChina Caixin Services PMI for July 52.1 (prior 51.2)Bill Ackman

Today’s Market Overview The US stock market experienced a notable shake-up today, characterized by sharp declines in several key sectors, particularly technology. Let’s delve into the implications of today’s trading data, extracted from the latest stock market heatmap, and explore strategic responses for savvy investors and traders. 💻 Technology Sector Overview It’s a sea of

The Japanese yen and the Swiss franc are the big gainers as commodity currencies are slumping hard now ahead of European morning trade. AUD/USD just briefly hit its lowest for the year, touching 0.6348 and threatening a sustained drop below its April lows now: Meanwhile, USD/JPY has also plunged further to 141.75 and is down

A light week lies ahead, as is usually the case following the NFP report. On Monday, the U.S. will release the final services PMI and the ISM services PMI. Tuesday’s focus will shift to Japan, where we’ll get data on average cash earnings y/y and household spending y/y. Additionally, in Australia the RBA will announce

Last week we had the manufacturing PMI from Japan: Japan July Manufacturing PMI (final): 49.1 (prior 50.0) Now the services and composite PMIs: Services 53.7 prior 49.4 Composite 52.5 prior 49.7 The preliminary for all three is here: Japan flash PMIs (July): Manufacturing 49.2 (prior 50.0) Services 53.9 (prior 49.4) – The latest Jibun Bank

The market is pricing in a 100% chance of a 50 basis point Fed rate cut in September with another 50 bps in November and a decent chance of 50 bps more in December. The market wants a rescue but I don’t see how Goolsbee could be the messenger. In all likelihood, he will say

The week has kicked off with sharp moves lower for US equity indexes in Sunday evening trade. BTC is under US$58K USD/JPY has been hit hard below 146.00, its lowest since January this year: 145.30 lowscirca 145.90 now Tensions in the Middle East continue to rise, contributing to the moves. USD/JPY update: This article was

Diving is on the Olympic scheduled today and it’s also on the market schedule. The gold medal so far goes to the 12% decline in Japanese stocks and let’s hope it stays that way, though Nasdaq futures are down more than 5%. On country that won’t be competing is Canada, with markets there closed today.

Rate cuts by year-end Fed: 125 bps (96% probability of 50 bps rate cut at the upcoming meeting) ECB: 75 bps (97% probability of rate cut at the upcoming meeting) BoE: 53 bps (57% probability of no change at the upcoming meeting) BoC: 80 bps (77% probability of rate cut at the upcoming meeting) RBA:

Eurostoxx -2.8%Germany DAX -2.2%France CAC 40 -2.0%UK FTSE -1.9%Spain IBEX -2.5%Italy FTSE MIB -4.1% It’s a rough one out there with banking stocks also feeling the pinch across the region. That comes as yields are tumbling amid a flight to safety in broader markets. Looking to US futures, S&P 500 futures are down 2.8% while

Headlines: US futures pinned lower ahead of North America tradingFrom soft landing to crash landingVolatility is back with a bangJapan’s Nikkei closes down by a whopping 12% to its lowest since November last yearWeekly update on interest rates expectationsA reminder of the one thing that traders have been getting wrong since last yearEurozone August Sentix

Here’s a snapshot of things: S&P 500 futures -3.0%Nasdaq futures -4.6%Dow futures -2.1%Russell 2000 futures -5.3% At one point, Nasdaq futures were down over 6% so the rout in tech shares is at least not getting much worse for now. It’s a full-fledged flight to safety mode with traders chasing the usual safe havens. Bonds

Gold held up through the Asian session and into Europe but it’s cracked now, joining in the market puke. It’s now down $76 to $2366, or 3%. Silver is down 7%. This kind of price action is typical in gold as it makes a great safe haven until things great really bad. At that point,

The craziest thing about the market reaction during covid was when bonds blew up. In the most risk-off week in generations, the global safe haven didn’t work. Yields jumped and it forced the Fed to launch unlimited QE, including days when the Fed bought $300 billion in bonds. That was frightening but it was also

This is also in part a key factor that is weighing on Japanese yen pairs in FX. It’s been a full-fledged flight to safety in markets to start the week. Looking to Fed pricing, traders are now seeing 128 bps of rate cuts in the next three meetings. To be more specific, traders are pricing

From highest in 30 years to correction to bear market in just a few weeks. Strengthen the yen, they said 😉 This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

Fundamental Overview Gold continues to rise amid lots of bullish drivers. We recently had a dovish Fed decision where Fed Chair Powell hinted to a September rate cut and didn’t even close the door for “several” rate cuts before the end of the year. Last Friday, we got an ugly US NFP report as the

Final Services PMI 52.5 vs. 52.0 prelim and 53.1 prior.Final Composite PMI 49.1 vs. 48.7 prelim and 50.4 prior. Key findings: HCOB Germany Services PMI Business Activity Index at 52.5 (Jun: 53.1). 4-month low. HCOB Germany Composite PMI Output Index at 49.1 (Jun: 50.4). 4-month low. Output prices rise at slowest rate since April 2021.

The big one to watch will be later in US trading, with the ISM services PMI for July coming up. With markets already reeling after the US jobs report last week, this might just exacerbate that sentiment further especially if we see a poor reading. As for European trading today, it looks like emotions are

Bitcoin has had a rough showing since the weekend, falling below $60,000 yesterday and now threatening a drop under $50,000 today. It’s the first time since February that the cryptocurrency is testing waters below the key level. And the heavy selling comes as traders are in a full-fledged flight to safety mode across markets. Looking

There aren’t any major expiries to take note of on the day. And in any case, this is a market currently driven by emotions more than anything else. As such, that matters more to price action rather than any specific levels on the charts. That especially if you’re looking at risk assets and the likes

The People’s Bank of China set the onshore yuan (CNY) reference rate for the trading session ahead. USD/CNY is the onshore yuan. Its permitted to trade plus or minus 2% from this daily reference rate.CNH is the offshore yuan. USD /CNH has no restrictions on its trading range.A significantly stronger or weaker rate than expected

Saudi Aramco has raised its official selling price (OSP) for Arab light for Asia by USD 0.20/bbl to USD 2.00/bbl above the benchmark (Oman/Dubai average) for September. This is the first bump higher in three months. It fell short of the +50 cents expected (Bloomberg survey, n=5) It suggests a degree of confidence in more

As is usual for a Monday morning, market liquidity is very thin until it improves as more Asian centres come online … prices are liable to swing around, so take care out there. Indicative rates, not a lot changed from late Friday levels: EUR/USD 1.0924USD/JPY 146.53GBP/USD 1.2804USD/CHF 0.8583USD/CAD 1.3875AUD/USD 0.6519NZD/USD 0.5958 Oil markets are yet

Prior -0.2% Looking at the breakdown, there was an increase in prices for intermediate goods (+0.1%), energy (+1.6%), capital goods (+0.1%), and non-durable consumer goods (+0.1%). The price for durable consumer goods was stable on the month. If you strip out energy prices though, the prices for the total industry would’ve only reflected a 0.1%

This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

The pair traded to a low of 0.9210 earlier, before catching a bounce to 0.9310-20 levels currently. The jump in the past two hours is also perhaps why the euro is more resilient today, with EUR/USD up 0.5% to 1.0960 now. That is being helped by a rebound in EUR/CHF after meeting its lowest levels

The pair has just hit the lows for the day at 143.55, threatening an over 2% drop today alone already. This comes as traders are sticking with the flight to safety as markets have gone into full blown panic mode. It’s a bloodbath in the equities space with the Nikkei down over 7% currently, with

China Caixin Services PMI rises to 52.1 in July, beats expectations of 51.4 Services PMI increases to 52.1 from 51.2 in JuneNew business growth accelerates to solid paceEmployment growth fastest in nearly a yearPrices charged unchanged despite rising input costsComposite PMI dips to 51.2 from 52.8, 9-month lowManufacturing sector facing greater pressure than services The

Final Manufacturing PMI 52.5 vs. 52.4 prelim and 52.1 prior.Final Composite PMI 52.8 vs. 52.7 prelim and 52.3 prior. Key findings: Demand for UK services rises at fastest pace since May 2023. Business confidence rebounds to five-month high. Price pressures remain strong. Comment: Joe Hayes, Principal Economist at S&P Global Market Intelligence said: “With the

People’s Bank of China USD/CNY reference rate is due around 0115 GMT. The People’s Bank of China (PBOC), China’s central bank, is responsible for setting the daily midpoint of the yuan (also known as renminbi or RMB). The PBOC follows a managed floating exchange rate system that allows the value of the yuan to fluctuate

Headline via Reuters: South Korean Finance Ministry said it will take measures to respond to heightened market volatility if needed As an example of how global market volatility is hitting South Korea, here an hourly USD/KRW chart: This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

The global rout has hit crypto as well. ETH/USD is now just above where to was to begin 2024: ps. ETH above 2300 now as I post This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

Bill Ackman, founder and CEO of Pershing Square Capital Management: This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

Prior -7.3 Investor morale slumped further in August, with the headline reading dropping to its lowest since January now. The expectations index also fell from 1.5 in July to -8.8 in August, highlighting worries over the economy in the next six months. Sentix noted that investors were concerned about geopolitical uncertainty, as well as the

In terms of daily points fall, this is a record decline for the Nikkei. This even exceeds the drop from Black Monday in 1987. Talk about pain. The thing when you view the chart above is that there are plenty of margin calls surely amid the declines in the last three days. And that is

We went from pricing in six rate cuts in November last year, to delaying the first rate cut from March to May. And then to pricing in just one rate cut by the time May arrived. We then bounced between that and two rate cuts over the last few months, before suddenly going back to

Wow, what a brutal day we are having in the markets. On the data front, we don’t have much on the agenda as we will just get the final European and UK Services PMI readings in the European session, and the US ISM Services PMI in the American session. I don’t think the market will

Bank of Japan June meeting minutes A few members said import prices rising due to recent yen fall, creating upside inflation riskOne member said cost-push inflation could heighten underlying inflation if it leads to higher inflation expectations, wage increasesOne member said pass-through of higher labour costs accelerating, could appear in consumer inflationOne member said BOJ

Prior 56.8Composite PMI 53.4Prior 55.8 It’s not a major data release but it won’t help to calm market fears on the day. The euro area economy is seen stuttering to start Q3 and that could well pressure the ECB into cutting in September. For now, traders have fully priced that in with the odds of

The index tracks the prices of 17 of New Zealand’s major commodity exports, including dairy products, meat, wool, forestry products, and seafood. In New Zealand dollar terms, the index lifted 0.2% m/m as the NZD Trade Weighted Index fell 1.9% in July. As part of the report are comments from ANZ on shipping prices: Global

The Nikkei 225 futures have now been suspended amid triggering the circuit breaker. Talk about carnage. In just three days, the Nikkei itself has erased its gains for the entire year-to-date. It was less than four weeks ago that the index hit a record high above 42,000. Pain. The selling has been quite relentless not

The ‘sidecar’ is a rule that lets the Korea Exchange (KRX, the operator of SK’s bourse) halt futures trading of equities during periods of extreme market volatility. Triggered when the benchmark KOSPI futures contract moves more than 5% from the previous close. The KRX limits program trading for five minutes as a ‘circuit breaker’ Rushing

USD/JPY fell to just under 146.00 earlier on the gap lower for US equity indexes: US equity findex futures have opened sharply lower for the new week Tit recovered but has since lost it all and is now lower, circa 145.83 or so as I update. There is no fresh news nor data. None is

Japan chief cabinet secretary Hayashi Won’t comment on daily share movesClosely watching market moves with a sense of urgencyShare prices determined by various factors including economic situation, corporate activity This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

The ‘Sahm Rule’ was developed by noted economist Claudia Sahm, chief economist at New Century Advisors. There is an explanation of it below (scroll down). Sahm was interviewed (Fortune) on it after the July employment report (Forexlive Americas FX news wrap 2 Aug: Bond market cuts rate for Fed after weak jobs data) triggered it:

Yen strength, equities weakness. Last week’s play book continuing. Mix in escalating tensions in the Middle East: Sec State Blinken said on Sunday that Iran & Hezbollah attack on Israel could start Monday TV show later Monday? This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

Which is the tail, which is the dog? It varies. Futures open for the week: US equity index futures have opened sharply lower for the new week USD/JPY marked lower, a tic under 146.00 seen via EBS: This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

The US National Hurricane Center has issued the warning: Tropical Storm Debby expected to become a hurricane tonight and make landfall in the Florida big bend area on MondayWill bring a major flood threat to the southeastern US Oil traders will want to watch developments for the Gulf. For those likely to be impacted, take

The Reserve Bank of Australia meeting is Monday and Tuesday (August 5 and 6). The basically unanimous expectation is for a hold for the cash rate, a ‘hawkish’ hold. The RBA policy announcement is due at 2.30pm Sydney time on Tuesday, August 6, 2024: 0430 GMT, and 0030 US Eastern timethis will be accompanied by

Ugly. Nasdaq futures, NQ, -1.28%, down more than 260 pointsS&P 500 futures, ES, -0.85%, down more than 50 pointsOil, CL, up more than 1% more to come This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

A stock index circuit breaker is a mechanism used in stock markets to temporarily halt trading when an index experiences a significant drop in value. The purpose of this system is to prevent panic selling and allow time for investors to process information and make rational decisions. circuit breaker triggered for Topixalso for government bond

The Bank of Japan minutes are from the June meeting. The Bank of Japan meeting in June produced the commitment to trim back JGB buying from the following, July, meeting: Will decide on specific bond buying reduction plan for the next 1-2 years at next policy meeting.BOJ governor Ueda says will begin tapering bond purchases

Good morning, afternoon and evening all. Any charts, technical analysis, trade ideas, thoughts, views, ForexLive traders would like to share and discuss with fellow ForexLive traders, please do so: This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

Goldman Sachs now expects the Fed to cut rates by 25 basis points in September, November, and December, with a larger 50 basis point cut possible if the August employment report is as weak as July’s. has increased its estimated probability of a US recession within the next year to 25%, up from 15%, GS

Forecast for the Reserve Bank of New Zealand from Westpac in New Zealand. more to come This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

UPCOMING EVENTS: Monday: China Caixin Services PMI, Eurozone PPI, US ISM Services PMI, Fed’s SLOOS.Tuesday: Japan Average Cash Earnings, RBA Policy Decision, Swiss Unemployment Rate and Retail Sales, Eurozone Retail Sales, Canada Services PMI. Wednesday: New Zealand Labour Market report, BoC Minutes.Thursday: BoJ Summary of Opinions, US Jobless Claims.Friday: China CPI, Canada Labour Market report.

This is a good spot for a bounce in many things. There are many times when the strong hands in the market would step in here; the economy isn’t that bad, there’s no financial crisis and companies are still making money. Yes, the Fed is behind the curve but they have more ammunition than they’ve

How reflexive is the economy to the stock market?What will be the main earnings releases for the week starting August 5Goolsbee: If inflation and the job market continue cool, the Fed should cutKamala Harris crosses threshold to become Democratic nomineeBaker Hughes US oil rig count unchangedFed’s Goolsbee: The job of a central bank is to